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In the year of growth, Nicola Willis has presented a growth budget. But does the Investment Boost initiative, which speeds up depreciation for businesses, promise the kind of growth that the economy needs? In this special Spinoff pod for budget day, Toby Manhire asks Bernard Hickey for his take on the headline changes, and whether or not David Seymour's earlier commentary that his colleague Brooke van Velden had “saved the budget” through its controversial and hurried changes to the pay equiry scheme, has been proven true. Plus: what are the cumulative impacts of the changes to KiwiSaver and Best Start, as compared to the SuperGold cohort? And how much did the global political and economic volatility influence the documents published today? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this panel discussion we get to hear on Housing in Aotearoa New Zealand from the following speakers at the New Zealand Green Building Council Housing Summit held on 7 May 2025 (more on NZGBC is here): Ali Hamlin-Paenga - Chief Executive of Te Matapihi (Site: https://www.tematapihi.org.nz) Cate Kearney - Chief Executive of Ōtautahi Community Housing Trust (Site: https://www.ocht.org.nz) Paul Gilberd - Chief Executive of Community Housing Aotearoa (Site: https://communityhousing.org.nz) Steven Moe – Chair of Community Housing Funding Agency (Site: https://chfa.co.nz) Thanks to Bernard Hickey for the questions at the end as well. Listen to his "When the Facts Change Podcast" and follow his work here https://thekaka.substack.com Description of the session: "Partnering for a better result on housing supply Housing supply is more important than ever. With Community Housing Providers a vital, growing part of the solution, how are they stepping up to support mitigating the housing crisis? How will they be financed? Join Steven Moe from the Community Housing Funding Agency as he leads our panel talking strategic partnerships, the funding mechanisms, and the challenges in rolling out best practice in community housing initiatives." Thanks to the NZGBC team for all the work in putting the conference on! For more on seeds visit www.theseeds.nz
This week, Bernard Hickey dives into the psychology of the housing market and talks to realestate.co.nz CEO Sarah Wood about why so many home sellers are holding on and simply not selling, rather than lowering their price to “meet the market” and “clear the market” in a way other markets do when there's too much supply and not enough demand. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More than half of consumer spending is dominated one way or another by a collection of monopolies, duopolies and quadropolies that generate higher prices and profits than would be normal if there was true and tough competition, as a myriad of market studies and inquiries have found for supermarkets, fuel retailing, building materials, electricity, banking, insurance and real estate agencies. Twenty years of finger-wagging and report writing has failed in all of these sectors, except for telecommunications, where an aggressive breakup of a monopoly (Telecom) and regulation of number portability and interchange fees, along with the arrival of third competitor in 2degrees, sparked a flourishing of competition and ever-lower prices for ever-more data. The Reserve Bank called it the “2degrees Effect” in creating deflation for a significant part of the economy. Bernard Hickey talks to Monopoly Watch spokesman and one of the founders of 2degrees, Tex Edwards, about how to create the “2degrees Effect” for supermarkets, banking and electricity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bernard Hickey talks to the co-founders of Christchurch-based AI start-up, Contented. Lucy Pink and Hannah Hardy-Jones tell their story from meeting over coffee and jam, to working with US news publishers to turn live-streamed council meetings into news articles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Donald Trump's bigger-and-stupider-than-expected tariffs have upended the global trading system and are threatening to create a new financial crisis. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about the latest day “when the facts changed”, and what might happen next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If New Zealand's economy was a grass paddock, it would be in pretty rough shape. We're coming out of a pretty bad drought (economic recession) and there's widespread political disagreement about how to get our worn-out field of brown grass back to the lush green pasture it once was. Bernard Hickey speaks to Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado about what looks promising (green shoots) and what looks worrying (brown roots) in the meadow of our national economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For 30 years, a little-known number in government circles has quietly stymied investment for future generations. Set by Treasury, the ‘discount rate' was once set at 10%, and it meant future benefits and costs were heavily devalued, becoming worth almost nothing after six or seven years. In a nutshell, higher discount rates discourage long-term investment and incentivise short-term projects. Treasury has recently reduced the discount rate to 5%, but is that enough? Bernard Hickey talks with Arthur Grimes, senior fellow at Motu Research and professor at Victoria University, about a big shift to new discount rates that could make big future projects much more viable. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bernard Hickey chews the monetary policy fat with returning guest Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway. Was inflation targeting (a policy framework first introduced in Aotearoa 35 years ago) actually our greatest invention? Was quantitative easing a success? Is inflation different now? And should Reserve Banks and Governments work more in tandem, rather than against each other? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor this week after 7 years in the job, but three years early, effective immediately and without explanation. Bernard Hickey talks in an emergency edition of When The Facts Change with NZ Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich, an Orr critic, about his legacy and how his replacement should change the bank, and with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about Orr's operation of monetary policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Even as New Zealand's economy was in the depths of a recession, the Reserve Bank kept a firm grip on monetary policy, only easing up in mid-2024. This week, Bernard Hickey sits down with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr to discuss whether the Reserve Bank should be hitting the accelerator now, rather than simply lifting its foot off the brake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Described by The Spinoff's Duncan Greive as “the most important figure in New Zealand technology you've never hear of”, Rowan Simpson has had a guiding hand in Aotearoa's most successful tech companies. His new book “How to be Wrong: a crash course in startup success” shares the close calls and near misses that happened on the way to success (read: the staggering purchase of Trade Me by Fairfax Media in 2006). He talks to Bernard Hickey about his journey through tech, the keys to startup success, and whether he ought to have just bought in to residential property instead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Retail spending figures from shops, cafes, restaurants, hotels and holiday hotspots over December and January are the ultimate barometer for spending appetites, income levels and general confidence in job security. Kiwibank senior economist Mary Jo Vergara joins Bernard Hickey to discuss a note she published this week, diving in to the latest spending data collected over the summer break. How relaxed were Kiwi with their holiday spending money? What are the experts predicting for 2025? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Free trade agreements are the global political economy's hottest topics at the moment, especially since a tariff-toting Donald Trump recently argued (to great political success) that the rising tide of global free trade wasn't lifting all boats. While global economic growth has lifted many out of poverty, the benefits have been unevenly distributed, leading to increasing wealth inequality and stagnant wages for the middle-class in many parts of the world. Inequality and wealth researcher Max Rashbrooke joins Bernard Hickey to discuss recent inequality trends here in Aotearoa, and to share an interesting idea he has to use KiwiSaver to jumpstart the personal wealth of every single New Zealander, right from the moment they are born. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Last June the economists at Kiwibank published an article titled “Survive ‘til 25”, outlining what they saw as a tough six months ahead for our economy. Well we've made it to 2025, but is the economic year ahead going to be about surviving or thriving? Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado joins Bernard Hickey to try and find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Homelessness in Aotearoa has hit an all-time high, forcing organisations like Wellington City Mission to adopt innovative new strategies. Wellington City Missioner Murray Edridge joins Bernard Hickey to talk about the scale of the housing crisis in our capital city and how a couple of new approaches and buildings are making a difference for those worst affected. Read more about the Wellington City Mission's efforts in Joel's MacManus' Cover Story: https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/11-11-2024/inside-the-urgent-race-to-solve-homelessness-in-aotearoa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Motueka might appear sleepy and remote to visitors, but like much of Aotearoa, it faces a severe shortage of rental housing—often far pricier than expected. Bernard Hickey sits down with Miriana Stephens to discuss how her iwi is tackling this crisis by building dozens of affordable homes, with the marae at the heart of community life. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In 2022, Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr told Christmas shoppers to “cool your jets”, as the bank scrambled to control inflation by hiking interest rates. This week - now inflation has been beaten back down - he delivered another whopper 50-basis point rate cut in the RBNZ's latest monetary policy statement. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the governor's gradual transformation from OCR grinch to Father Christmas, and how many more rate cuts we can expect to see in the new year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Victoria University professor of taxation Lisa Marriott talks to Bernard Hickey about the fundamental flaws at the core of our tax system, how they have produced historic levels of wealth inequality in Aotearoa - and how we can fix them. Lisa is speaking at the Pakukore: Poverty, by Design conference at Victoria University, 21-23 November. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For decades, Pat Hanley has been a tireless advocate for the rights of beneficiaries, drawing attention to the persistent challenges they face. In this week's episode of When the Facts Change, he sits down with Bernard Hickey to unpack the deep-rooted causes of poverty in Porirua. Hanley argues that both the underlying issues and society's approach to addressing poverty demand a comprehensive overhaul, calling for transformative change to create a fairer, more supportive social landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fintechs are changing the way we spend and save, but they are also set to change the way we could be paid for work, or more correctly, how workers are paid benefits on the fringes. Bernard Hickey talks to Steven Zinsli, the founder of Extraordinary (formerly HealthNow) about his new payments card system to help employers deliver extra benefits to employees through electronic cards, rather than having to claim expenses or just get plain old cash paid straight into a bank account. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The animal spirits of the economy are stirring back to life after a whopper of an interest rate cut - with expectations of one more to come. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about how businesses are feeling heading into the Christmas sales season, and what might upset the metaphorical applecart. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What if your hot water cylinder could help solve New Zealand's energy crisis? And how is an hour of free electricity helping with our notoriously problematic electricity market? Electric Kiwi co-founder and CEO Huia Burt sits down with Bernard Hickey to explore how they are helping New Zealanders tackle the cost-of-living crisis, all while reducing our national reliance on non-renewable energy sources. Tune in for a fascinating discussion about electricity, innovation, and the potential for real change. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As our national population grows older (and the superannuation system becomes increasingly burdened by the growing ranks of retirees), how will the government balance the books? The ratio of tax-paying adults to superannuitants is steadily falling, and raising the age of eligibility for super won't cover the forecasted shortfall. So what kind of fiscal policy changes are needed before public debt starts getting scary? Dominick Stephens, chief economic adviser at the Treasury, joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the long-term unsustainability of our current situation, the impacts of migration and outsized labour force participation by over-65s, and what's at risk if we don't make changes soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aotearoa's biggest problems are largely caused by a lack of infrastructure - housing, transport, water, hospital and education - in the areas that need it most. So how could (or should) we plan the systems that keep our country running? And who is responsible for divining the future to make decisions that can have an impact for decades to come? Bernard Hickey is joined by Peter Nunns, acting general manager of Te Waihanga NZ Infrastructure Commission, to discuss the murky business of planning infrastructure projects for an uncertain future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As recently as late May, the Reserve Bank thought it wouldn't need to cut rates until well into 2025. However, a batch of leading indicators revealed a slump in economic activity through June, and the RBNZ decided to hit the brakes by lowering the official cash rate in its August monetary policy statement. Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway talks to Bernard Hickey about why the RBNZ decided to change course, what kinds of data they are lacking compared to other central banks, and what they can't change about our economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Accountants often have low profiles and their accounts seem merely to keep score on the games of capitalism, but they can sometimes shape capitalism itself - and maybe even the atmosphere. Bernard Hickey talks with Dr Amelia Sharman from the External Reporting Board. Typically an obscure setter of accounting standards nestled somewhere between the government and companies, she details how the XRB's new standards for emissions accounting might just change the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In 2018, The Consumer Advocacy Council was set up by cabinet in response to a commissioned investigation into the nation's problematic electricity market. It was designed to act as an independent advocate for residential and small business electricity consumers in Aotearoa. Then came Budget 2024. With the stroke of a pen, the council was scrapped by the coalition government to help balance the books. Former chair Deborah Hart speaks to Bernard Hickey about what the loss of the council means for everyday consumers, what's wrong with our electricity industry and how we can improve things in the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A heated debate about insulation standards lately has had both health and construction experts up in arms. It's only part, however, of a wider debate about how we approach climate change and how we make decisions about our homes. NZ Green Building Council CEO Andrew Eagles joins Bernard Hickey to pull back the GIB board and take a look at how to build, and heat, cheaper homes over the longer run. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What happened to the world's supply chains during and after the Covid-19 pandemic, and how much of the damage caused is permanent? New York Times business journalist and author of ‘How the World Ran Out of Everything' Peter Goodman joins Bernard Hickey to explain the complex international pathways of manufacturing and transportation that bring products to our doorsteps, through the example of one fledgling American toy startup. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bernard Hickey goes hunting for the Reserve Bank's first rate cut in a discussion with Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado. It was supposed to be this year, especially now that the economy appears mired in a multi-dip recession with higher unemployment - but sticky local inflation has held the RBNZ back. Now, however, it is forecasting a rate cut in August 2025 at the earliest. Sabrina explains why she disagrees, why the central bank should be able to cut as early as November, and what that'll mean for the housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tonight on The Panel, Wallace Chapman and panellists Nuwanthie Samarakone & Allan Blackman discover what exactly a bird strike is. Bernard Hickey also joins us to discuss Aotearoa, New Zealand's place at the top of the OECD Rent to Income chart. Nuwanthie Samarakone is an entrepreneur, board director and former National party candidate. Allan Blackman is a Professor of Chemistry at the AUT.
Bernard Hickey goes deep into the mechanics of the electricity distribution system to find out what really happened during a cold snap in May that almost caused a national energy crisis. He talks to Electric Kiwi CEO Luke Blincoe about how to solve the dry winter and cold snap problem without spending billions of dollars on new generation and lines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Nicola Willis has delivered tax cuts in her first budget, largely as promised. But has the coalition government managed to square the circle of relieving cost of living pressures while avoiding the quicksand of encouraging inflation? In a special crossover episode of Gone By Lunchtime meets When the Facts Change, Toby Manhire quizzes Bernard Hickey on all that, plus: Is Willis right to say the tax cuts are not paid for by borrowing, and can she reasonably blame Labour for the bleak fiscal outlook? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Nicola Willis has delivered tax cuts in her first budget, largely as promised. But has the coalition government managed to square the circle of relieving cost of living pressures while avoiding the quicksand of encouraging inflation? In a special crossover episode of Gone By Lunchtime meets When the Facts Change, Toby Manhire quizzes Bernard Hickey on all that, plus: Is Willis right to say the tax cuts are not paid for by borrowing, and can she reasonably blame Labour for the bleak fiscal outlook? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Reserve Bank warned this week of high interest rates and high inflation for even longer, with sticky rental, rates and insurance inflation all partly to blame. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the how blunt our central bank's main monetary policy tool can be, and the developing opinion that high interest rates actually increase, rather than decrease, the inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Redclyffe substation near Napier flooded during Cyclone Gabrielle and turning it off turned off the power for much of Hawkes Bay and Tairāwhiti. Transpower has fixed it for now, but has faced a big decision: should it rebuild it where it is now, next to a stream? Or start again on higher ground? The choice tells us a lot about how to think about our climate future. Bernard Hickey talks about that decision with Transpower's executive general manager grid delivery, Mark Ryall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bernard Hickey steps in to host a special live panel featuring three leaders in circular business, bio-materials and turning trash into treasure share their experiences in building better systems for business. Hear from Jayden Klinac of Anew, who replaces plastic with bio-materials; Sara Smeath from CiRCLR, turning waste from businesses into a resource for others, and Rachel Brown at the SBN who helps to connect and advance business practice in Aotearoa. This episode is part of Future State, a technology summit from Spark Business Lab and Semi Permanent Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bernard Hickey talks with property academic Deborah Levy about her research into the changes in the way bach owners feel about their holiday homes. Where once the bach was the centrepiece of 'the kiwi dream', a place for friends and families to gather, relax and create memories, they have now become a financialised asset to be added to the portfolio of the increasingly wealthy few. What's behind this change? What insights can this research give into the rest of our dysfunctional national property market? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Auckland Airport wants to put up its landing charges to help pay for a multibillion dollar revamp of its terminals. Its biggest customer, Air NZ, is complaining that the airport is over-charging. So who is right? What is fair? And what happens when two effective monopolies butt heads? Bernard Hickey talks to Auckland Airport CEO Carrie Hurihanganui about the dispute, how the Commerce Commission factors in, and what the airport is planning to mitigate its long-term impact on the changing climate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The evidence is clear: it's good for our pockets and for the planet, so what's stopping families and businesses from going electric? How do we address the electrification knowledge gap and other barriers that stand in the way of adopting cleaner, more affordable energy both as individuals and organisations? Bernard Hickey talks to Rewiring Aotearoa CEO Mike Casey about their recent report 'Electric Homes', and how NZ is one of the first countries to reach the "electrification tipping point". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With the majority of Aotearoa struggling to meet basic needs, philanthropic funding is more important than ever. Cheryl Spain, executive director of The Gift Trust, joins Bernard Hickey to explain why philanthropic giving needs to become part of New Zealand culture, where funding should be directed within an organisation for maximum effectiveness and how to navigate the complications that come with financial giving. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In a special edition of When The Facts Change, Bernard Hickey talks with The Spinoff's Wellington editor Joel MacManus about the historic victory for YIMBYs in last week's District Plan votes by the Wellington City Council. Who knew that town planning could be so important? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transpower is taking a new approach to handling the massive increase in demand for electricity. Instead of building bigger power pylons (and a lot more of them), they want to reduce demand for electricity in the first place. Bernard Hickey is joined by Transpower's John Clarke to discuss the state-owned power transmission company's recent RFP for non-transmission solutions; novel ideas such as buying demand reduction through virtual grids and batteries. And ground zero for their electrical innovations? Te Waipounamu, the South Island. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Kiwibank chief executive Steve Jurkovich joins Bernard Hickey to discuss how businesses and consumers are feeling early in 2024, why an RBNZ rate hike last week would not have helped and how banks are thinking about the challenges of climate risk and cybersecurity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Christopher Luxon has described Aotearoa's government finances as fragile, but the most qualified folks in financial markets don't see it that way. Bernard Hickey talks to S&P Global's government ratings director Anthony Walker about just how fragile our government and local council finances actually are. According to Anthony, NZ's AAA rating means international investors view NZ as a strong borrower with $120 billion worth of borrowing headroom to solve its infrastructure deficits. Yet the government still won't borrow. Why not? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
After releasing a paper earlier this week outlining her policy recommendations for the government, retirement commissioner Jane Wrightson joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the complex challenge of superannuation in Aotearoa. Why should the age of eligibility stay at 65? Which demographics would be adversely affected by a decision to raise it? And is it a problem that approximately 50,000 pensioners collect NZ Super while earning over $100,000 a year? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In order to limit global warming to 1.5ºC, and avoid the catastrophic effects brought on by further warming, every person on the planet must limit their personal carbon dioxide emissions to just two tonnes per year. The current annual emissions average for someone living in New Zealand? Over eight. Writer, consultant and climate justice campaigner Emily Mabin Sutton joins Bernard Hickey to help figure out how we can get our own carbon emissions under control. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
SUPERPOD is back! Hosted by Gone By Lunchtime's Toby Manhire and featuring Jane Yee and Alex Casey from The Real Pod, Duncan Greive from The Fold, Gone By Lunchtime's Annabelle Lee-Mather, Simon Pound from Business Is Boring, Bernard Hickey from When The Facts Change and The Spinoff Podcast Network's Te Aihe Butler and Samuel Robinson, SUPERPOD 2023 is the crossover to end all crossovers. From intense discussion of government policy to figuring out what the heck a skibidi toilet is, we celebrate the best and worst of what has been a rollercoaster year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
SUPERPOD is back! Hosted by Gone By Lunchtime's Toby Manhire and featuring Jane Yee and Alex Casey from The Real Pod, Duncan Greive from The Fold, Gone By Lunchtime's Annabelle Lee-Mather, Simon Pound from Business Is Boring, Bernard Hickey from When The Facts Change and The Spinoff Podcast Network's Te Aihe Butler and Samuel Robinson, SUPERPOD 2023 is the crossover to end all crossovers. From intense discussion of government policy to figuring out what the heck a skibidi toilet is, we celebrate the best and worst of what has been a rollercoaster year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices