Podcasts about cyclone gabrielle

Hawkes Bay mixed arable and livestock farmers Simon and Lou White, of Ludlow Farms, have just won not one, but two prestigious farming awards. Despite the setbacks of Cyclone Gabrielle and a farm accident, Simon tells Alison Stewart that he is investing in value-add off-farm and is more positive than ever about the future of mixed arable farming.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Residents of the the tiny coastal village of Herbertville on the lower north island - are anxious about the build up of debris in the river running under the only bridge in and out of town. The town flooded when Cyclone Gabrielle hit in 2023 with some properties still bearing the scars. Jimmy Ellingham reports.

There is a growing appetite for New Zealand's rarest and most unusual fruit. Persimmons have had a 20% rise in exports in the last year, and demand has never been higher. Persimmon Industry Council Manager Ian Turk told Mike Hosking it's thanks to recent sunny weather in Gisborne, where the vast majority of the fruit is grown. He says after a rough five years for the industry —with impacts from the likes of Cyclone Gabrielle— growers are looking forward to a good season ahead. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When Cyclone Gabrielle beat its destructive path down the North Island's east cost, the tiny coastal village of Herbertville wasn't spared. Remote and isolated anyway - east of Palmerston North, it's about an hour's drive to Dannevirke - the February 2023 tempest destroyed the road in and out and flooded the pub. The roads are pretty well repaired but the pub has remained shut - until now. Reporter Jimmy Ellingham paid it a visit.

It's been more than two years since Cyclone Gabrielle upended lives across the North Island. But for some, it was just one more chapter in a long story of floods, fear and property damage. Northland reporter Peter de Graaf has more.

More than two years ago, Cyclone Gabrielle washed thousands of logs and wood waste from forestry into Gisborne and surrounding areas. Now the Tai Rāwhiti region is tackling the problem by attempting to turn 100,000 hectares of forestry and pastural land back into native bush. Tai Rāwhiti-Hawke's Bay reporter Alexa Cook has more.

It's been just over two years since Cyclone Gabrielle wreaked havoc up and down the country ... and some communities are still picking up the pieces. But they're not being left to do it alone. Volunteers from the Centurions Motorcycle Club have made several trips to Hawke's Bay to work alongside local clean up teams. Members come from all over the North Island and they've donned their helmets and kick started their bikes to do it all again this weekend. Club President, Rob Goulden, talks to Jesse Mulligan about the latest "Ride of Recovery".

Wairoa Little Theatre is putting on its first production in five years after battling through Covid-19 and Cyclone Gabrielle that devastated the region. The theatre has also struggled to coax locals on stage. Playwright and star Louise Bramley spoke to Lisa Owen.

Life in the Peloton is proudly brought to you by MAAP Well, guys, if you enjoyed part 1 of my epic trip across to New Zealand then get yourself a cold one, sit back, relax, and get ready to enjoy the second part of the story. If you didn't catch part 1 earlier this week then make sure you go back and listen to that first. We pick up the journey at the start of day 3, and head straight to the iconic Waihau bay. This stunning area was made famous by Taika Waititi's film ‘Boy', and oh man was it special; what a way to kick off the second half of the trip. After some delicious home made ice cream at the Pacific Coast Macadamia Store we cracked on down the coast. I bumped into a fella called Giles who was undertaking a similar bikepacking trip with his son, and we cracked open a few Gizzy Golds and yarned into the evening.  Heading back down the coast towards Gisborne we took in more stunning views, and surveyed the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle that struck the region back in 2023. Still in the cleanup stages, it's clear to see how the disaster decimated the land and the sea, but the way the Māori people have rallied around each other and is really heartening, and left us all feeling pretty inspired.  What better way to wrap up a trip through some of the hottest surfing on the planet than with a quick lesson? I was taken out into the water with legendary local surfer, Holly Quinn, who showed me how to master the waves and helped me get up. We sealed off the adventure by visiting Sunshine brewery; the home of the iconic Gizzy Gold which I'd become so familiar with over the week. Honestly, guys, if you ever get the chance to head out to the North West coast of the North Island and explore Gisborne and the surrounding area - jump on it; you won't regret it.  I hope you really enjoyed listening to these two eps; I had an amazing time and I'm really grateful to Tairāwhiti Gisborne - the Gisborne Tourism Board - for making it happen. If you want to read more about my trip and see some of the incredible pictures, check out this cracking feature by our friends at FLOW MOUNTAIN BIKE.  Cheers, Mitch!   Chapters 00:00:00 - Introduction & Recap 00:02:21 - Day Three Begins: Waihau Bay & Movie Locations 00:12:54 - Macadamia Farm & Local Treats 00:14:55 - Coastal Riding & Māori Cultural Insights 00:20:41 - Bikepacking Father & Son Duo 00:34:13 - East Cape Lighthouse & The First Sunrise 00:49:08 - Famous Café 35 & Power Pies 01:02:15 - Māori Facial Tattoos (Moko Kauae) & Cultural Significance 01:05:07 - Final Stretch Back to Gisborne ----more---- This episode is brought to you by our friends over at NordVPN. For a huge discount on your plan plus 4 additional on top head over to nordvpn.com/pelosurf. The Life in the Peloton book is OUT NOW! Get your copy now exclusively at maap.cc! Can't wait for you to read it.

In this week's show:Senior reporter Richard Rennie reports on his recent trip to Tairāwhiti, where he caught up with some of the forestry companies working to ensure the next storm that hits the region doesn't cause the same damage as Cyclone Gabrielle.Things are looking up for sheep and beef farmers, the B+LNZ midseason update is forecasting a strong return to profitability for the sector. Bryan talks to chair Kate Acland and Agriculture and Trade Minister Todd McClay about the year ahead for meat exporters.Federated Farmers banking spokesperson Richard McIntyre delves into the complexities of rural banking practices in New Zealand, discussing the implications of banks' decisions on local businesses. They explore the balance between environmental responsibility and the need for financial institutions to support local economies. They also debate whether “woke” is a useful term to use when trying to discuss complex issues.

It's taken hundreds of hours, but a vintage car that was swamped in silt and water in Cyclone Gabrielle has been lovingly restored to its former glory and is back on the road. The 1934 Plymouth Coupe owned by Hawkes Bay pulp and paper mill Pan Pac was buried in up to two metres of flood water, along with other cars, machinery and equipment. Paul Tollison works as an operator in Pan Pac's sawmill. He lovingly restored the Plymouth and spoke to Lisa Owen.

Senior reporter Richard Rennie reports on his recent trip to Tairāwhiti, where he caught up with some of the forestry companies working to ensure the next storm that hits the region doesn't cause the same damage as Cyclone Gabrielle.

On today's REX Daily Podcast, Dom talks with Insurance Council of NZ CEO Kris Faafoi about an insurance industry report into the 2023 North Island weather events (Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods and Cyclone Gabrielle), the number of claims made and the number processed... He talks with WeatherWatch CEO Phil Duncan about Tropical Cyclone Alfred as it heads towards Queensland, the dry areas in NZ and what's in store for March... And he talks with Mandy Bell from Criffel Station about the upcoming Wanaka A&P Show (March 7-8), the new Agri Exchange site and the biggest challenges for the Upper Clutha region at the moment. Tune in daily for the latest and greatest REX rural content on your favourite streaming platform, visit rexonline.co.nz and follow us on Instagram, Facebook and LinkedIn for more.

Dom talks with Insurance Council of NZ CEO Kris Faafoi about an insurance industry report into the 2023 North Island weather events (Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods and Cyclone Gabrielle), the number of claims made and the number processed. Tune in daily for the latest and greatest REX rural content on your favourite streaming platform, visit rexonline.co.nz and follow us on Instagram, Facebook and LinkedIn for more.

On the second anniversary of Cyclone Gabrielle, GNS Science principal scientist and friend of the show Graham Leonard joins Mihi to talk about landslides. 

It has been two years since Cyclone Gabrielle, Alexa talks to Kathryn about what has happened since.

We chat to a Hawke’s Bay apple grower, two years on from Cyclone Gabrielle, to discuss the recovery.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When Cyclone Gabrielle hit two years ago, 4th generation orchardist Cameron Taylor sprang into action rescuing people from rooftops in his Taylor Corporation helicopter. Since then it's been non-stop in restoring the family orchard and packhouse into working order. You can find photos from the clean-up and recovery here.Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Head inside a Hawke's Bay packhouse and orchard once covered in millions of litres of silt after Cyclone Gabrielle and meet a topdressing pilot who's still flying after nearly half a century on the job. Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Two years ago, the deadly Cyclone Gabrielle pummeled the North Island's East Coast. Hundreds of Hawke's Bay residents were forced to climb onto their rooftops and trees to escape the rising floodwaters, 11 people died and over 13 billion dollars of damage was caused. Following the storm, local authorities red zoned more than 1000 homes to try and get people out of flood risk areas. Hawke's Bay - Tairawhiti Reporter Alexa Cook caught up with some of the displaced cyclone victims to see where their lives are at two years on.

Federated Farmers' Meatloaf and Wool Chair (and Gisborne farmer) comments on the two-year anniversary of Cyclone Gabrielle today, National Lamb Day tomorrow and, of course, Valentine's Day!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The families of those who died in Cyclone Gabrielle two years ago say Hawke's Bay residents are in danger because authorities have not made the urgent changes needed to keep people safe in disasters. RNZ's Hawke's Bay Tairawhiti reporter Alexa Cook has more.

On today's episode, the families of those who died in Cyclone Gabrielle say Hawke's Bay residents are in danger because authorities have not made the urgent changes needed to keep people safe in disasters; Europe is still reeling from what appears to be the collapse of nearly a century of American interventionist policy on the continent; Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis has again called for more competition in the supermarket sector, saying a new player would be welcome; teams from around the country are getting ready for the Red Bull Trolley Grand Prix on Saturday; we have our weekly political panel with RNZ political editor Jo Moir and New Zealand Herald political editor Claire Trevet, and Kerry-Anne Walsh joins us for an update from Australia.

The families of those who died in Cyclone Gabrielle say Hawke's Bay residents are in danger because authorities have not made the urgent changes needed to keep people safe in disasters. Today is the second anniversary of the Cyclone, which killed 11 people and caused over 13 billion dollars of damage. Emergency Management Minister Mark Mitchell spoke with Corin Dann.

Two years on from Cyclone Gabrielle, what is the state of the backup power supply at all the cellphone towers that went dark that night? Phil Pennington reports.

Hawke's Bay apple growers are reaping the rewards of their recovery after Cyclone Gabrielle. The region grows two-thirds of the country's apples but was badly affected by the cyclone in 2023. They say a warm and dry spring has led to one of the earliest picking seasons in decades. Hawke's Bay Fruitgrowers Association President Brydon Nisbet told Mike Hosking that everything is set for a fantastic harvest. He says there's a huge volume of fruit of good quality, size, and colour. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand helicopter crews have received an international award for their work during Cyclone Gabrielle. No.3 Squadron's Commanding Officer - Wing Commander Officer Chris Ross spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.

On today's episode, the Prime Minister has confirmed he will be hosted by Ngai Tahu in Akaroa for Waitangi Day on Thursday, the Trade Minister says officials and the prime minister have been in contact with US counterparts, as Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs on US trading partners, the world's largest aid agency faces major cuts, and it could have a big impact on the Pacific, Iwi leaders have been laying out their goals for the year at Te Tii Marae as part of Waitangi commemorations, where they say Kotahitanga, or unity, has been high on the agenda, and New Zealand helicopter crews have received an international award for their work during Cyclone Gabrielle.

Hawke's Bay is nearing Cyclone Gabrielle's second anniversary, when millions of tonnes of silt were dumped across the region, smothering crops and resulting in over 600 hectares of fruit trees having to be ripped out. Apple grower, and the chief executive of the Yummy Fruit Company, Paul Paynter lost more than 180,000 trees and says many are still dying.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The fruit bowl of New Zealand is shrinking as Hawke's Bay orchards continue feeling the impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle. Orchardist Paul Paynter spoke to Alexa Cook.

Cyclone Gabrielle was one of the worst weather events in Aotearoa's history - killing 11 people and causing billions of dollars of damage, including smothering apple trees in muddy silt, which is still impacting orchardists in Hawke's Bay. Hawke's Bay Fruit Growers Association chair Brydon Nisbet spoke to Alexa Cook.

On today's episode, the group advising the government on overhauling the science sector is pleased most of its recommendations are being implemented, the government is setting up a new foreign investment agency aimed at boosting productivity and innovation, Cyclone Gabrielle was one of the worst weather events in Aotearoa's history - killing 11 people and causing billions of dollars of damage, including smothering apple trees in muddy silt, which is still impacting orchardists in Hawke's Bay, we have our weekly political panel and we cross to LA for a run down on the 2025 Oscar nominations.

In the face of climate uncertainty, growers wonder which grape varieties will flourish in their regions in the future, or if any will grow there at all. Joel Harms, Ph.D. student in the Department of Bioresource Engineering at McGill University in Australia is using artificial intelligence to simulate the potential to grow pinot noire in different regions of the world that are currently considered too cool. The project mapped 1,300 varieties to 16 different points of climate data including temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days. The findings could play a crucial role in identifying the winegrowing regions of tomorrow. Resources:         207: Managing Catastrophic Loss in Vineyards: Lessons from Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand Cal-Adapt Development of a generative AI-based model for guiding grape variety selection under contemporary climate dynamics Generative AI for Climate-Adaptive Viticulture Development Joel Harms Google Scholar Page Mapping Global of the Potential for Pinot Noir Cultivation under Climate Uncertainty using Generative AI University of Adelaide Wine Economics Research Center Vineyard Team Programs: Juan Nevarez Memorial Scholarship - Donate SIP Certified – Show your care for the people and planet   Sustainable Ag Expo – The premiere winegrowing event of the year Vineyard Team – Become a Member Get More Subscribe wherever you listen so you never miss an episode on the latest science and research with the Sustainable Winegrowing Podcast. Since 1994, Vineyard Team has been your resource for workshops and field demonstrations, research, and events dedicated to the stewardship of our natural resources. Learn more at www.vineyardteam.org.   Transcript [00:00:00] Beth Vukmanic: In the face of climate uncertainty, growers wonder which grape varieties will flourish in their regions in the future, or if any, will grow there at all. [00:00:13] Welcome to Sustainable Wine Growing with the Vineyard Team, where we bring you the latest in science and research for the wine industry. I'm Beth Vukmanic, Executive Director. [00:00:23] In today's podcast, Craig McMillan, Critical Resource Manager at Niner Wine Estates, with longtime SIP certified vineyard and the first ever SIP certified winery. Speaks with Joel Harms, PhD student in the Department of Bioresource Engineering at McGill University in Australia. [00:00:42] Joel is using artificial intelligence to simulate the potential to grow Pinot Noir in different regions of the world that are currently considered too cool. [00:00:52] The project mapped 1, 300 varieties to 16 different points of climate data. including temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days. The findings could play a critical role in identifying the wine growing regions of tomorrow. [00:01:07] Want to be more connected with the viticulture industry but don't know where to start? Become a member of the Vineyard Team. Get access to the latest science based practices, experts, growers, and wine industry tools through both infield and online education so that you can grow your business. Visit vineyardteam. org and choose grower or business to join the community today. Now let's listen in. [00:01:34] Craig Macmillan: Our guest today is Joel Harms. He's a PhD student in the Department of Bioresources Engineering at McGill University. And today we're going to talk about mapping global future potential for Pinot Noir cultivation under climate uncertainty using generative AI. [00:01:51] Bye. Bye. This is a really interesting topic. I came across an abstract from a recent ASEV meeting and I was like, I just have to know more about this. This just sounds too interesting. But welcome to the podcast, Joel. [00:02:04] Joel Harms: Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you for having me. [00:02:06] Craig Macmillan: What got you interested in this topic in terms of this wine grape region? Stuff. [00:02:12] Joel Harms: I think it was more about I wanted to build models that are useful, I guess, broadly useful in vineyard management and like establishing new vineyards and like kind of covering some of the base problems. Initially, my thought was, how can we. see which grape varieties are alike. [00:02:32] How can we like make a representation of them in like a latent space. But then I found out , if I do that, that's, you know, somewhat useful, but if I take that just a step further, I could just connect it with climate data already. And then we would have a model that could, be used for prediction and it would be so I guess. How do I say like broad or general enough so that you could apply it in any environment. So like any climate can be used to predict any grape suitability matrix, which is quite nice. And so then I thought, no, let's do it. Let's try that. [00:03:11] Craig Macmillan: So your colleagues and yourself did some simulations, as we just mentioned specifically around Pinot Noir and the potential to grow it in different parts of the world that currently are considered too cool. Tell us exactly how you went about this. [00:03:25] Joel Harms: The abstract is kind of a case study on one application of, These models that we built. So we built very general grape variety recommender systems based on climate. And so we wanted to show a cool application globally. This can be applied to find regions that will be too hot in the future. [00:03:43] So we built the AI models first starting from looking at where grapes are grown and tying that together with what climate is there regionally. Unfortunately, you know, we can't use like very precise climate data because we don't have the exact location of each grape variety in each region. [00:04:02] Craig Macmillan: hmm. Yep. [00:04:03] Joel Harms: Yeah. So therefore, we use larger climate data. So like at 50 kilometer resolution, which is still helpful to, I think, gather overall trends, not so much, you know, to plan an individual vineyard probably, but just to see like in which areas maybe there would be. in the future interesting vineyard sites. [00:04:23] Just like kind of as like a pre guidance sort of model. And then we, tested it. We tried to validate this model and then we presented a first case study with Pinot Noir because we were presenting in Oregon at the ASEV conference. So I figured, you know, might as well do Pinot Noir if we're already in Oregon. [00:04:43] Craig Macmillan: Can you explain to me the artificial intelligence piece of this? I mean, you hear about it and you know, kind of what different types of AI do. I don't think a lot of people realize that, you know, that's a very general concept and people have designed particular tools for particular reasons. [00:05:01] So, in this case, what exactly was the AI component? What's inside the box, basically? How does it work? [00:05:07] Joel Harms: First off, I guess to explain for listeners , cause AI does get thrown around a lot and it's hard to know what that actually means. So when we're talking about AI, it's usually we're tying some sort of input data to some sort of output data. And we're teaching a very complicated mathematical function to map one to the other. [00:05:25] So like kind of a correlation. But it's not a simple correlation. That's why we need these models and that's why they're pretty fancy. [00:05:31] So in our case, we're using an AI that was inspired from the community of medical science, where similar models were used to connect, for example, the ECG measurements of a heart with like scans of the heart. [00:05:50] And then Trying to tie both of those datas together and to reconstruct them again to see if, like, you could find correlations between those and maybe if one of them is missing, you could, , predict what it would look like. And so, since this is a very similar problem, , and we have similar input data in the sense of, we have grapes, which grapes are grown where, and we have what is the climate there, roughly. [00:06:13] So we can tie that together and try to connect both of those types of data and then get an output of both of those types of data so that we can go from grapes to climate and climate to grapes in the same model. So we have these , you could say like four models. that are tied together at the center. So input grapes, input climate, then in the center where they get tied together and then output grapes, output climate. And so we train it to, reconstruct it from this combined space where we like, Scrunch it down, which is what the autoencoder does. [00:06:48] Craig Macmillan: So if, if I understand correctly, what we're talking about is , we know that we have the data and we know where wine grapes are grown, different types for different climates. Then we have the climate data in terms of how things may change over time. And then we're creating a prediction of. How those climates change, and then translate that into what we already know about wine grapes. [00:07:09] Joel Harms: Sort of. Yeah. But in our model for training, we just use the existing ones. So historical climate data and historical grape variety data. Once we have that model trained, we just apply it for new climates that come from like other climate models. So we don't do the climate modeling ourselves, but we extract that information and feed that into it and get the grape varieties output. [00:07:31] Craig Macmillan: So you look specifically, at least reported on areas that currently are considered too cold for growing a high quality pinot noir or growing wine grapes in general. What did you find out? What Parts of the world might be the new leading Pinot Noir regions. [00:07:46] Joel Harms: . So that depends a little bit on the exact scenario and how much the climate is supposed to warm. We have like two scenarios is what we looked at. We looked at a 8. 5 scenario and a 2. 6 scenario and going by the 8. 5 scenario, some of the regions that are improving are for example, Western China. And also Southern California, actually, and Quebec, , like Southern California is in Santa Barbara. I guess that's technically Central Coast, [00:08:17] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, well, that's interesting There's a lot of Pinot Noir in Santa Barbara County in the in the coastal zones Any other regions that popped up? [00:08:26] Joel Harms: Yeah, a lot of Australia seems to be doing better and like Northern France, [00:08:31] Craig Macmillan: Yeah pushing it to the north. Did England pop up? [00:08:35] Joel Harms: England, yes, but England seems to like stay the same in compared to historical. So not like as if it's improving, at least like from this, like rough map that we made. What we want to do is do it a bit more finely. The, this prediction, because we currently just used regions where wine is already grown, but then try to like interpolate just for calculation efficiency. Outward. So like our maps are created not only by the model itself, because that would be too calculation intensive. So for the, for the sake of simplicity, we did it like this, but we're still writing the final paper. So, you know, don't invest just yet, wait a little bit and then, [00:09:17] Craig Macmillan: I was gonna bring that up. Where should I put my money? [00:09:19] Joel Harms: Exactly. So don't do that yet. Wait for the final paper and then we will double check everything over. Oh yeah. Arkansas was one that was improving too. Very interestingly. Yeah. [00:09:28] Craig Macmillan: I was kind of surprised because having talked to guests, many guests from, you know, New York, from Texas, from people who consult in the Southwest Northern California, which can get quite warm. What we've talked about is the question of it getting too hot to grow quality wine grapes. [00:09:49] You know, wine grapes will grow to tolerate quite high temperatures. So, for instance, the San Joaquin Valley in California, produces a lot of wine grapes. They're not considered to be very high quality compared to coastal zones. So the vines do great and produce good crops and all of that. So there's concern that areas that have been kind of in the sweet spot, kind of in the, we call it the Goldilocks phenomenon where climate, soil, time, everything just all kind of fits together. [00:10:12] It sounds like this idea would be applicable to predicting what areas might become too warm for high quality wine [00:10:19] Joel Harms: Yes. Yes. It's definitely the case. Yes. And in our maps. You can see both at the same time because it sees like relative change, positive, relative change to, to negative. Some areas that look like they're not going to do so well in the future or less good in the future, even though they're like really good right now is like Oregon, unfortunately. [00:10:39] And the Azores or Northern Spain, even in Eastern Europe, a lot of areas. Seem to be warming up like in Romania at the coast. Not necessarily just the warming up part, but also because we consider 16 different climate variables, it could be the warming up part, but it could also be, you know, like the precipitation changing things like that, you know. [00:10:59] Craig Macmillan: You said 16 variables, we talked, you got temperature, you got precipitation, what, what are some of the others? [00:11:04] Joel Harms: Yeah, we got the growing degree days, the winter index, we got the Huggins index, we have radiation. Diurnal temperature range, the annual average temperature, for the precipitation, we have it like a three different scales, in the harvest month over the growing season and also throughout the whole year same for the temperature. And then we have the, growing indexes [00:11:26] Craig Macmillan: do you have plans to do this kind of thing again? Or publish additional papers from the work you've already done, because I think, it sounds like you've got a lot of interesting findings, [00:11:35] Joel Harms: Oh yeah. Yeah. The results only came in like right before the conference. We're still analyzing everything, writing everything. So the first thing that's coming up is a paper just on , how did we build the model and like all the validations and does it make sense with like expert classifications of how experts classify suitability for grapevines and things like that in the past to see if. That lines up as it should yeah, and then after that we'll publish some of these predictions and what we can learn from these and more detailed than how we did it right now where, most of it's like interpolated because we couldn't predict for every location, so like we predicted for some locations and interpolated. Just for computational efficiency, I guess, but you know, we're, we're getting there. Unfortunately, academia is quite you know, a slow profession. takes a lot of time. [00:12:24] Craig Macmillan: Yes, yes it does. And then getting it published takes a lot of time with reviews and whatnot. And so I just want to put a time stamp on this. This is being recorded in October of 2024. So, Give it some months, at least several, several, several, several. But it's exciting. This stuff's coming out. It'll be in, be in the literature. That's really, really great. [00:12:43] Joel Harms: And soon what we're trying to do is also release like a tool or something that, you know, where people can input their location and we can, our climate data, like call out the climate data and see what, what some of the predictions would be. Yeah. [00:12:57] Craig Macmillan: Oh, that's neat. [00:12:59] Joel Harms: I might've done that for Niner Vineyards just now to see, to see what, what's a suitable there, but only the current ones. [00:13:08] So I mean, it's kind of is exactly what you're growing. [00:13:10] Craig Macmillan: Funny. You should mention that. There is a a website called CalAdapt that allows you to put in some ranges and some variables specific to your location, you put your location in, and then there's a number of different models that you can run. Some are very conservative, some are not in terms of what the predictions are for climate change globally. [00:13:31] And then gives you a nice report on what the average temperature change might be in degrees Fahrenheit or Celsius also takes a stab at precipitation, although I talked to somebody who was connected to that and they said the precipitation is always kind of questionable. And also looks at things like heat waves, how many heat waves days over 100 or days over 95, you might expect because those can be quite fluctuating. [00:13:55] damaging. Even, even though vines can tolerate heat, if they're not acclimated, getting these big stretches of over a hundred, for instance, can be kind of stressful. I did that and kind of looked at it myself and thought, huh, I wonder if we had better, more, um, detailed information, what that might look like. [00:14:12] Another tool that was mentioned that you used was a deep coupled auto incoder networks. What are those? [00:14:18] Joel Harms: So that was what I described earlier, like these component models , where we have a. The encoder and decoder part, the input part is the , encoder and the output part is the decoder. And in the middle of these we have a latent space and then the coupled part means that we're having multiple of these that share their latent space. [00:14:38] So that's , where we're tying them together so that we can input either climate or grapes and get as outputs either climates or grapes. So it's like very, very flexible in that way and so I quite like that. And it turns out it does better than even some more traditional approaches where you just feed in climate and get out grapes like from a neural network or something like that. [00:14:59] Just like a neural network, because we have technically like four neural networks and all of them have three layers. So that's three layers or more. And so that's what makes them deep. [00:15:08] Craig Macmillan: Got it. [00:15:09] Is this your primary work as a PhD student? [00:15:13] Joel Harms: Well, as a PhD student, I'm still working on modeling. But not so much with grapevines, unfortunately. I'm looking at still climate models. How can we adapt for example, now we're looking more at the Caribbean. There's flooding issues. Particularly in Guyana. And so we're trying to, you know, help maybe the government to plan land use better in order to avoid, you know, critical areas being flooded, agricultural land being flooded and these type of things. [00:15:41] So it's more looking at flooding modeling, there's definitely some overlap in that sort of work, it's definitely still like in the area of using data science to help decision making which is the overall theme of this work. [00:15:55] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, and that was something that also came up in my little mini project was the potential for massive storms and also the potential for drought. Which, wasn't part of your work at this stage. Is that something that you would be able to find a way of including in your modeling that might give you some idea of how things might change? [00:16:15] And it's specifically what I'm thinking of is Cyclone Gabriel, I believe it was called, Gabriella just devastated parts of New Zealand. And raised a lot of concern about how, you know, when we were in these coastal zones, we go, Oh, yes, it's mild. It's great. But we're right near the ocean. [00:16:33] Right. And in October between 24, we've seen a very active hurricane season in the Caribbean and on the East coast and the Gulf. Do you think there's potential for this kind of thing to give us more of a heads up about what might be coming our way in terms of massive storm events? Cause that might affect how and what I do. [00:16:52] Joel Harms: I guess this wouldn't depend really on the grape variety itself. That would be more like a citing issue, right? Like where do you plant? [00:16:58] That's what we're looking at now with the like flooding mapping if there is a storm, where does the water collect? Which roads are cut off? Or, I mean, I guess in the case of vineyards, you could look at like, what would be the likely damage would there be now saltwater maybe even if you're depending on where you are. That's definitely something to look at. [00:17:17] All you need is sufficient, like past data points. So you can calibrate your models and then. You know, look at different future scenarios and what will be important to for the future is to look at what's kind of the certainty of these predictions, right? Like, what are your error margins? What's your confidence interval? [00:17:33] Because that might drastically alter your decisions. If it says, oh, it's probably not going to be too bad, but you're very uncertain about that, then you're probably going to take some more precautions than, you know, not because usually now we have A lot of models where their prediction is very, like is deterministic. [00:17:50] So they say, this is how it will be. And it's hard to tell where, you know, where those margins are of error, which is something to look at in the future for sure. [00:18:01] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, that is a challenge in the the model that I did for a Paso Robles vineyard Precipitation didn't really change very much which I was surprised by so it wasn't gonna become like a drought area completely but the potential ranged from five inches of rain a year to 60 inches of rain a year, which is why I was asking about these massive storms. [00:18:21] Maybe our averages, continuous to what we have now, but it may be a bunch of craziness year to year around that. And I think that is interesting and useful to know. So you prepare for it. [00:18:34] Joel Harms: that's something people are looking at, I think cause you can use some models to calculate sort of new climate indices. To see like from daily data train, like new climate indices to see these big storm events and things like that, and maybe incorporate that. That could help, , maybe with that sort of analysis of where even if it's the same average, the index is different because it measures something else. [00:18:59] Yes, I wouldn't know what they're called, but yes, I believe this already exists and is being improved. . [00:19:05] Craig Macmillan: Yeah. Yeah. With your experience so far, what do you see? Because everybody's talking about this. It's like the future in a world of artificial intelligence and this and that. In this particular area where you're, you're tying one set of variables to climate variables and also to historical weather. [00:19:23] In the big picture, beyond just wine grapes, but in the big picture, any topic, where do you see this kind of work going? You touched on it a little bit, when you close your eyes and open your mind what does the future look like? What, kind of tools are we going to have and what kind of things are we going to be able to find out? [00:19:38] Joel Harms: Yeah, that's interesting. I think it, it really depends on the data we have available and it looks like we'll have more and more data available. [00:19:47] So better disease models, location specific disease models to plan spray schedules better and things like that, they seem to be coming. I think I've seen parts of that already from some companies rolling out. [00:20:00] It's all about kind of the creatively using the data that you have available, because a lot of like my data, for example, that I used for this. This isn't necessarily new data, right? This comes from the University of Adelaide who collects where, which grape varieties are grown all over the world. [00:20:17] And then just historical, climate data. It's not very new, but just to put these together in a meaningful way with AI, that's going to be the challenge. And then also to test, is this reliable or not? Because you could theoretically predict almost anything, but then you need to check, is it just correlation? [00:20:39] Am I taking all the important variables into account? And we're developing AI very, very fast. But maybe we need to spend a bit more time, you know, trying to validate it, trying to see how robust it is, which is a major challenge, especially with these complicated models, because, I heard about this example. [00:20:57] Where in the past, for some self driving cars, their AI that recognized stop signs could be tricked if there was a sticker on the stop sign, and it would ignore the stop sign. Even though there's not a big difference, but you can't test for, you know, all of these cases, what might happen. And that's kind of the same for, , what we are doing. [00:21:17] So improving the testing, that would be, I think, a major A major goal to make sure it's robust and reliable or that it tells you how, how certain it is, you know, then at least you can deal with it, you know, and not just make a decision off of that. Yeah, [00:21:29] Craig Macmillan: Yeah. What the level of uncertainty is. That's always the getcha. [00:21:33] Joel Harms: yes, [00:21:34] Craig Macmillan: That's always the hard part. If you had one thing that you would tell growers on this topic, what would it be? Mm [00:21:43] Joel Harms: Specifically for my models, it would be to take the current results with a grain of salt. And then to sort of use this to, narrow down like a selection of grapes and to still run tests and things like that. Cause it's regional data, right? It's not going to tell you exactly what you should grow in your location. [00:22:02] Cause it's, you know, the weather data is based on four to 50 kilometers around you. You know, that's where we're like assembling the data from. [00:22:10] Craig Macmillan: that a 50 kilometer quadrant? [00:22:12] Joel Harms: yes. Yeah. [00:22:13] Craig Macmillan: Yep. Okay. Gotcha. [00:22:14] Joel Harms: Yes, exactly. So this tool is mainly used or useful if you use it to like pre select some varieties so you can see what might be good, you know, and then decide for yourself what you want. [00:22:27] The take home message is like, it's not supposed to take away grape growing experts and things like that, or replace them in any way, but it's supposed to like support it because. There's so many grape varieties and if climate regions or like regions where we're growing grapes are changing, where the climate is changing, we want to get the best choice. [00:22:47] And so we should probably look at all of them, all of our available options and see what we can do. It will narrow it down for you. And then, you know, you'll still have to see what works exactly for you. What wine do you want to produce? I mean, it doesn't take that into account, right? It just gives you what probably would grow well here. [00:23:03] Craig Macmillan: . [00:23:03] Yeah, then I think that there's going to be a future also in bringing in some either hybrid varieties or varieties that are not terribly well known. I've talked to people from Texas and from Michigan Pennsylvania, where the traditional vinifera only varieties don't do pretty well. Terribly well, often because of cold hardiness because of cold winters, they don't handle it, but there's hybrids that do great and make interesting wine. [00:23:27] And I think that would be an interesting thing to include in a model or if it came out kind of like the winner was something we don't normally [00:23:33] Joel Harms: Right. Usually we have a lot of hybrids in this because we have 1, 300 varieties. [00:23:39] Craig Macmillan: wow. Oh, I didn't realize that. [00:23:41] Joel Harms: so I think we have most of the. commercially used grape varieties, like in all aspects. [00:23:48] Craig Macmillan: yeah, probably, probably. [00:23:49] Joel Harms: Yeah. So it's quite, quite far ranging. We only excluded some where it was never more than 1 percent of any region, because then like our model couldn't really learn what this grape variety needs. [00:24:00] Right. Because it's like too small, even in the largest region where it we cut those out. So, cause else we would have 1700. But then like the 1300 that actually get used commercially at a significant scale. Those we have. The model is actually built like we have a suitability index. [00:24:18] But we're still trying to, , fine adjust so that we can rank not just what's popular and like how much will grow. Cause then you'll always get, you know, the top, the top 10 will look very similar for any region. But then through the suitability index, we actually get a lot of these smaller varieties that would fit very well also ranked in the top 10 or in the top 50 of varieties. [00:24:41] Craig Macmillan: They've mentioned fine tuning the model at this point. Is this particular project or this particular model, is this gonna continue on into the future? It sounds you have ideas for improvements. Is this number one gonna continue on into the future and is there gonna come a point when This will be available for the industry, industries internationally to do their own trials. [00:25:03] Joel Harms: Yes, I think so. So I think when we're publishing the paper latest at that point, we'll have the tool set up where people can try it out, put in, in their location. And I guess we're publishing the methodology. So you could build like a version of this yourself. It's not too crazy. Probably code will be published too. [00:25:24] So, you know, you could build this yourself if you wanted to, or you could just use the models we have trained already. Okay. And just apply them to your case. That's what the tool is for. . Right now it's like all code based. So like, it's not, not so easy where you just, drop your pin, like where you're at and then it gives you some predictions, , that's what we're aiming for. [00:25:44] Craig Macmillan: Fantastic. So our guest today has been Joel Harms. He is a PhD student in the Department of Bioresource Engineering at McGill. University. Thanks so much for being on the podcast. This is really fascinating. I'm really looking forward to how this work progresses. And I think it's very eyeopening for us. [00:26:01] Again, you know, one of the things I thought was fascinating is I've had all these conversations about areas that would no longer be suitable, but a flip on it and say, well, areas that might be suitable in the future. I hadn't thought of that. [00:26:12] Joel Harms: Why not? You [00:26:13] Craig Macmillan: why not? You know, that's, that's, that's a very interesting question, and it applies to other crops as well. [00:26:18] I just had never really thought about it like that. You know, maybe you can grow oranges in Iowa at some point. [00:26:23] Joel Harms: That, that would be nice. I guess. [00:26:25] Craig Macmillan: maybe [00:26:26] Joel Harms: maybe see. [00:26:28] Craig Macmillan: we'll see. We'll see. You never know. Anyway, Joel, thanks for being on the podcast. I appreciate it. [00:26:33] Beth Vukmanic: Thank you for listening. Today's podcast was brought to you by Cal West Rain. Since 1989, Cal West Rain has served growers on California's Central Coast and the San Joaquin Valley. As a locally owned, full line irrigation and pump company, they offer design and construction experience in all types of low volume irrigation systems, whether they're for vines, trees, or row crops. [00:27:03] In addition, CalWestRain offers a full range of pumps and pump services, plus expertise in automation systems, filtration systems, electrical service, maintenance and repairs, equipment rental, and a fully stocked parts department. Learn more at CalWestRain. com. [00:27:23] Make sure you check out the show notes for links to Joel, his research articles, plus sustainable wine growing podcast episode 207. Managing Catastrophic Loss in Vineyards, Lessons from Cyclone Gabriel in New Zealand. If you liked this show, do us a big favor by sharing it with a friend, subscribing, and leaving us a review. [00:27:44] You can find all of the podcasts at vineyardteam.org/podcast, and you can reach us at podcast at vineyardteam.org. Until next time, this is Sustainable Wine Growing with the Vineyard Team.   Nearly perfect transcription by Descript

The clean up task force, that has been funded by the government, is only just finishing, almost two years after Cyclone Gabrielle battered the region. Hundreds of homes and land was coated in metres of silt, with woody and other debris in the mix, suffocating pasture and orchards. The head of the taskforce, Darren De Klerk spoke to Lisa Owen.

Christmas and New Year's leave has been cancelled for military personnel set to cover for striking from non-uniform staff. The Defence Minister last month invoked the Defence Act, letting uniformed servicemen and woman fill the gaps. Advocacy group Mission Homefront has written to Judith Collins - saying that's unprecedented and unacceptable. Co-founder Hayden Ricketts says uniformed staff already give so much. "You know, those uniformed staff have worked their butts off during the Covid-19 response, they occupied and looked after our country and MIQ and the managed isolation facilities, they've done their best through Cyclone Gabrielle." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Local iwi and ecologists say a Hawke's Bay river that flooded during Cyclone Gabrielle should be re-widened to make space for future floods. Analysis provided to RNZ shows the Ngaruroro River has been restricted to half its width compared to the 1950s. In Depth reporter Kate Newton has more.

An early Christmas present for the Coromandel Peninsula as the walking track to Hahei's Cathedral Cove reopens. It closed in Feburary last year because of damage caused in Cyclone Gabrielle. Thames-Coromandel Mayor Len Salt says combined with the reopening of State Highway 25A, the region is ready for a busy summer. He told Mike Hosking the next step will be repairing other tracks in the area. “Not just down to the Cove, but the other bays. We've got Gemstone Bay and Stingray Bay which is still closed to access.” LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A carved pou from Tangoio Marae north of Napier has been found - almost two years after it was washed away during Cyclone Gabrielle. Ngāti Kahungunu Chair Bayden Barber spoke to Alexa Cook.

Their community was shattered by Cyclone Gabrielle with landslips destroying homes and killing two volunteer firefighters. Now, Muriwai residents are using salvaged materials from unliveable category three properties to build a commemorative sculpture. Reporter Louise Ternouth went along.

Almost two years on from Cyclone Gabrielle, Muriwai residents are using debris to commemorate the tragedy which wreaked havoc on Auckland's west coast. The unique art piece will use broken roofs, decks, fences, concrete, bricks, and bathroom and kitchen tiles to make five to seven sculptural columns. Jessica Hopkins reports.

If 2023's Cyclone Gabrielle proved anything, it was that New Zealand is woefully exposed to the risks of climate change and has no coherent strategy for moving people and assets away from them. Sustainability consultant Kelly Flatz tells Ross Inglis that the national conversation about managed retreat is only just starting.

A village of relocatable houses for whanau displaced by Cyclone Gabrielle has been finished on marae land in Hawkes Bay. The collaboration between iwi, hapu, the Ministry of Business and Innovation and Omahu Marae has seen 11 homes built 20 months on from the extreme weather event. MBIE has a three year lease for the land at the marae for the temporary village. Today, families and community got to see the finished product. Meihana Watson, the general manager of Te Piringa Hapu spoke to Lisa Owen.

Chris has an update on a Pakowhai couple who have refused a voluntary buyout of their Cyclone Gabrielle red zoned property, and how many eligible Category 3 property owners have accepted .

The families of those who died during last year's severe weather in Auckland hope unanswered questions about their deaths will be addressed by a coronial inquest. Maia Ingoe reports.

Two rural Gisborne women have started petitions for action on road repairs - frustrated that 18 months after Cyclone Gabrielle, their road remains cut off from State highway 35. 

Cyclone Gabrielle still feels like yesterday for some Far Northerners struggling with damaged and dangerous homes. But for a few, there could be a way out at last, as the council considers a buy-out scheme. Peter de Graaf reports.

A year and a half ago Cyclone Gabrielle made landfall, thrashing the North Island with widespread damage.  The disaster left many without a home, and over a year on houses are still red stickered, people are left waiting for insurance assessments, and climate change is still causing extreme climate events.  Earlier this month the Otago region was affected by major flooding, damaging homes and other community centres.  Associate Professor at the University of Auckland, George Laking says that extreme weather events like these impact people's homes, whānau and livelihoods, and in the wake of them it's paramount to consider people's mental health.  Following Cyclone Gabrielle, Laking identified five key health priorities that should be prioritised in natural disaster responses.  Producer Evie spoke to Laking about these responses, how they related to Cyclone Gabrielle, and how they could be better applied in the wake of the Otago floods. 

The Emergency Management Minister's motivated to strengthen the country's disaster resilience in the long haul. The Government's released a long-term vision for the system over the next five years, which includes creating a "whole of society" approach, and building the capability of the workforce. Mark Mitchell says recent weather events show the current system isn't fit for purpose. He told Mike Hosking there's a high-level of first responders across the country, ready to respond to emergencies. Mitchell says they need to be better supported by legislation, more training, and a bigger investment into systems. He says they've learned from events like Cyclone Gabrielle and is confident future disaster responses will be better. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we discuss why house insurance is so damn expensive! Most house insurance is becoming up to 30% - 40% more expensive. This is because of the Auckland floods and Cyclone Gabrielle. Insures feel that they've under-priced risk in New Zealand. So they are readjusting the costs. We also mention our new app, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Opes+⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, click the link to try it out. For more from Opes Partners: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for the weekly Private Property newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok

A Treasury report says there's an 80 percent chance that another massive storm as damaging as Cyclone Gabrielle will hit New Zealand in the next 50 years. In Depth reporter Kate Newton spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.