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Economists are seemingly aligned on where they think today's Official Cash Rate figure will land. The Reserve Bank's expected to cut the OCR by 25 basis points, down from 3.75 percent. It's the first rate decision since Governor Adrian Orr's resignation. Jarden Economist and Investment Strategist, John Carran told Andrew Dickens there's been a lot of uncertainty in markets from US President Donald Trump's tariffs. He believes it's too early for the bank to panic and cut the OCR any further. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Adrian Orr steps down and Trump's tariffs step up—this week, global finance is in flux and Kiwis are wondering what comes next. We break down what the Reserve Bank's next move means for borrowers, how Trump's tariffs are shaking the global economy, and what Orr's exit signals for the future of monetary policy in New Zealand.Next Steps: Need help navigating rate changes? Talk to the team at Lighthouse Mortgages—no guesswork, no stress, just the right loan with the right structure at the right price. Want to learn more? Check out these episodes below:How Trump is Shaping the Global Economy ft. Jarrod KerrNZ's Economy in 2025: Is the Worst Over? For more money tips follow us on:FacebookInstagramThe content in this podcast is the opinion of the hosts. It should not be treated as financial advice. It is important to take into consideration your own personal situation and goals before making any financial decisions.
The Reserve Bank wasn't planning to announce former governor Adrian Orr's resignation until after it had hosted a big international conference. But the unexplained resignation was brought forward by five days to March 5 - the day before the conference, new documents reveal. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny explains further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Reserve Bank wasn't planning to announce former governor Adrian Orr's resignation until after it had hosted a big international conference. But the unexplained resignation was brought forward by five days to March 5 - the day before the conference, new documents reveal. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny explains further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This week we welcome Simon Jensen, President of the Banking & Financial Services Law Association to the Nut Bar. Him and DC chat about Adrian Orr, the Reserve Bank and...loan sharks.Tune in next week for part two with Simon!If you have any questions or things you'd like to hear us talk about, get in touch with us at david@squirrel.co.nz or John@squirrel.co.nz. The opinions expressed in this podcast are not financial advice, or a recommendation of any financial product. Any commentary provided are personal views and are not necessarily representative of the opinions of Squirrel. As always, we recommend seeking professional investment or mortgage advice before taking any action. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Ex-politician Rodney Hide is fighting a battle. It began a couple of years ago, and it continues today. It involves the 'Relationship and Sexuality Education Curriculum' being taught in his daughter's school. It's actually taught in all schools. Rodney is not the only parent unhappy about what's being taught, but he stands almost alone in trying to address it. To him it is a matter of principle. But we also discuss other matters- the RBNZ and Adrian Orr, Luxon and the National party, economic growth, and more. And we wind up in The Mailroom with Mrs Producer. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Monday, 10 March 2025, Chris Hipkins has overtaken Chris Luxon in the latest political poll - and we'll dig into what's going on with the PM's popularity. Who is Mark Carney? Ryan Bridge tells you everything you need to know about Canada's new PM. Ryan asks Finance Minister Nicola Willis when she found out about Adrian Orr's shock resignation. Plus, the road cone scandal that has us all riled up. Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This week on the Sunday Panel, Newstalk ZB host Roman Travers and producer, journalist and commentator Irene Gardiner joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day - and more! NZ Super is set to undergo a tough period as the aging population grows. How can we address this problem? Should we raise the age? Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr shocked the nation by resigning abruptly last week. What do we think caused this? What do we make of this? Tinā is dominating the New Zealand box office - and it's had the third-biggest opening week for a New Zealand-made film ever. Have we seen it? LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The man at the centre of the economy for eight years has resigned, leaving without notice or explanation. Adrian Orr stepped down from his role as Reserve Bank governor on Wednesday. Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper says it would be beneficial to hear from Orr. "He's either accepting absolute defeat in what he set out to do, or he's saying ... 'I've done the job, now I'm out of here.' LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Every Friday on Matt and Tyler afternoons on ZB we name the New Zealander of the week. It's an honour that we grant on your behalf to someone who has had effect on our great and beautiful nation over the past week. There are three nominees but can only be one winner. Is it Phil Goff, Adrian Orr, or the Warriors? LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Crikey, I barely stepped away from the microphone yesterday and we had a double whammy news-wise. Phil Goff sacked as High Commissioner to London for an intemperate comment and question, Greg Foran resigning as Air New Zealand CEO. I heard someone on The Huddle with Ryan Bridge last night saying Greg Foran can now become the High Commissioner, Adrian Orr would become Air New Zealand CEO, and Phil Goff will take over as Reserve Bank Governor - all change. Boy, will Phil Goff be kicking himself all the way back to New Zealand, all the way back to the farm at Clevedon. You are on the pig's back when you get a gig like that – it is a sweet deal. And one intemperate comment ... I think he was just trying to be a bit too clever, showing he's done his homework, showing that he was well read, making appointed remark about somebody the world regards as a graceless buffoon (well, members of Phil Goff's world regard as a graceless buffoon), and he loses his gig, and rightly so. He was asking a question of the Finnish Foreign Affairs Minister at a Chatham House event in London. Goff said he'd been rereading a speech by former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill after the Munich Agreement. “He turned to Chamberlain, he said ‘You had the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, yet you will have a war',” Goff then said “President Trump has restored the bust of Churchill to the Oval Office. But do you think he really understands history?” So Phil Goff was making it well researched, clever-dick, pointed remark about the American president. What on Earth did he think was going to happen? He was stripped of his position immediately by Winston Peters. The Foreign Affairs Minister said Phil Goff's comments were deeply disappointing. They did not represent the views of the New Zealand Government and made his position as High Commissioner to London untenable. So a number of comments around that. Phil Goff was sacked by Winston Peters immediately. Winston Peters did not have to consult the Prime Minister before doing so – there was no need for him to consult. He was presented with a problem in his own department, and he dealt with it in the appropriate fashion. That's why you have managers, that's why you have ministers. Everything doesn't filter up to the CEO. Imagine in your own organisation if every single decision in your department had to go to the CEO. Why have a dog and bark yourself? So there was no need to consult. Was he sacked because the Government's sucking up, particularly to Donald Trump in the US? No. As Winston Peters pointed out yesterday, and as numerous foreign affairs experts have concurred, Phil Goff would have been sacked if he had made the comment of any foreign leader. When you're in a diplomatic role, you have to be diplomatic, and that wasn't. And what about the Chatham House rules? Chatham House is an actual place where people congregate to debate, discuss ideas primarily around foreign policy, but also about other things. It's a meeting place for pointy heads where they can float and toss ideas around, and they don't have to worry about it being attributable back to them. The rules say when a meeting or part thereof is held under the Chatham House rules, participants are free to use the information received but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speakers, nor that of any other participant, may be revealed. So Chatham House rules guarantee people can speak freely within the walls. But in this case, the Chatham House rules had not been invoked because it was being live streamed, so you're not going to be able to shield the identity of the speakers because it's being live streamed. So that's why the comments became public, despite the fact they were in Chatham House – oh irony of ironies. The rules have to be invoked. They weren't, and apparently, according to Chatham House, it's not terribly often that they are. So there we go. That's what happened. He stuffed up royally and he's paid the price. And nobody will be more disappointed, I imagine, than Phil Goff except Mrs Goff because that would have been a lovely reward for a long period of time being an uxorious, fabulous support. Being a politician's partner or spouse would not be an easy gig. So you get the cushy number in London, feet up, gorgeous little holidays popping off around Europe. Now back to the farm in Clevedon, tail between the legs. Back on the ride on mower, no gardener for you anymore. He's had his punishment. He's heading home and Winston Peters did exactly the right thing. Ten out of ten for the Foreign Affairs Minister. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Political Editor Jo Moir spoke to Lisa Owen about the resignations of Reserve Bank head Adrian Orr and Air New Zealand CEO Greg Foran, as well as the sacking of UK High Commissioner Phil Goff.
The Finance Minister insists the Reserve Bank governor's reasons for resigning are his and his alone, as questions continue to be asked over exactly why Adrian Orr has gone. Mr Orr's immediate departure means he didn't host a major conference today, with the Deputy - now Acting - governor taking to the stage instead. Here's our political reporter Giles Dexter.
Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor this week after 7 years in the job, but three years early, effective immediately and without explanation. Bernard Hickey talks in an emergency edition of When The Facts Change with NZ Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich, an Orr critic, about his legacy and how his replacement should change the bank, and with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about Orr's operation of monetary policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Am I joining too many dots? I wonder aloud whether the Government and the Prime Minister, having had by any measure a very good week, has at last got the message that some action, as opposed to yak, might be what the punter wants a bit more of? There's been several solid health changes; more doctors already here to be parked at GP's, more nurses and scripts via tech when we want them. I mean, the idea that getting a script on the net at an hour that suits you really shouldn't be a thing, but it does show you how backward we have become. They are all practical, sensible, and politically beneficial. The exam concerns from principals that wanted less hard work and more free credits? That was dismissed as the minister hammers home the concept of hard work and not giving up. The big one was Adrian Orr gone. It was a sacking without a sacking and a result the Government wanted and needed. Then there was Phil Goff gone. Was it thinly veiled? Maybe. It was a stupid comment, if you didn't catch up on it, and a Commissioner's job is to represent the Government, and never more so than when you are dealing with a new, unpredictable America and walking a tight rope in the Pacific between China and the US. A couple of other minor ones - the Prime Minister's marmite sandwich line on this show. It was a nod to middle New Zealand who are fed up with elite moaners and elite media and their pile on over an issue that, in a convulsing world, is really embarrassing now. Secondly, and more importantly, health again with bowel cancer. The screening age has been has been dropped from 60-years-old to 58-years old. The money comes from the segregated Māori bowel screening programme. The message is this is one country, with one rule for everyone. Bowel cancer is not a race issue, it's a health issue. So by the time you put all that together on a Friday morning you have collected up a fairly substantial seven days, and the vast majority of it is positive, on the right side of the voter and gives the very clear indication that a week's worth of actual “doing” is vastly more appealing and productive than a week worth of announcing, or defending, or scrapping, or time wasting. Keep it up and the polls will show it's what the majority of people actually voted for. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What's with all these sackings and surprise resignations this week... Phil Goff yesterday, Adrian Orr the day before. Richard Prebble did a runner from the gravy train of the Waitangi Tribunal Greg Foran Calls it a day at Air New Zealand after 5 years... One of these guys had change forced on them, the other three just packed up and left with varying degrees of notice. Some are angry. some are relieved. And they all have one thing in common They're over 60. You don't screw with successful over 60s, which they all are. They have discovered a superpower. They don't give a flying fig. They're financially settled. They know their own mind. They can afford to stand on their principles, Phil Goff won't mind being held to account for what he said because he believes it. He may be regretful that his entertaining job in London has gone but he'll just come back to the farm in Clevedon and start making some real money in consultancy and cashing in both his Prime Ministerial and Mayoral superannuation. When things start getting all hot and sticky in their jobs for these over 60s, they can instantly switch to whoever needs this crap and walk. And then they brood. In their Bach. Or on a cruise ship. With a nice dinner reservation and maybe treat themselves to a new car. And if you think the over 60s have a superpower it's nothing compared to the over 70s whose superpower is the absolute certainty in what they believe and the total commitment to making sure that everyone knows it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Reserve Bank Board chair Neil Quigley said governor Adrian Orr has made a personal decision to step away and he has full confidence in him.
On today's episode, the trade war between the United States and Canada is in full swing and will have wide ranging consequences in both nations, the CIA has confirmed the United States has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, an economist says Adrian Orr's resignation as Reserve Bank Governor is unprecedented and raises questions about confidence in the bank's leadership, government minister Simeon Brown appointed a prominent oil and gas lobbyist to an energy savings board against official advice, documents released to RNZ show, and the Black Caps are through to the Champions Trophy final after dismantling South Africa in Lahore.
An economist says Adrian Orr's resignation as Reserve Bank Governor is unprecedented and raises questions about confidence in the bank's leadership. Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen spoke to Corin Dann.
The fact Adrian Orr is leaving is excellent. It shows a level of accountability and responsibility for what has been a ruinous period for the New Zealand economy. The receipts and reviews are in, and the story is stark. We have been hit harder than any other country in the OECD. We had three recessions while most countries, as a result of the Covid plan, had none. Grant Robertson carries some blame for encouraging and endorsing Orr but, more dangerously, reappointing him so close to the last election. The new Government could have/should have sacked Orr, although that would have set a fairly disturbing precedent given the Governor is supposed to be neutral. Orr made the Governor's job a household fascination. Yes, Don Brash got well known, but really only when he went political. The others came and went. I might have interviewed Allan Bollard a couple of times. Before Spencer Russell, who you also never heard of, the job was called the Chief Cashier. Russell was your first Governor. Anyway, the upside of Covid and Orr was we at last took an interest. We had a view, and we know about cash rates and inflation and quantitative easing. But we learned the hard way. We paid an enormous price and are in fact still paying the price. Orr has years to run on his contract and clearly the pressure was on. The Government is currently negotiating a budget with the bank, and I assume they were twisting arms, hard, behind the scenes. By the way, the bank staffing numbers have ballooned. Orr has come across as haughty and arrogant, unable to really express any level of regret, if in fact he has any, for all the damage he has done. Giving banks money for free and not putting restrictions of where that money went was the height of incompetency. Still handing out money when we knew a lot of what we thought would happen during Covid didn't, was a scandal. The onerous banking restrictions he placed on the retailers with his “just in case” thinking was needlessly restrictive. The conclusion has to be that although everyone flew blind during Covid, no one flew more blind than us. And no one was led by a more ideologically driven, fiscal ransacker than Adrian Orr. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 6th of March, Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr has quit, so what is his legacy? And what's next for the Reserve Bank? We fact check the almost two hour long speech from Donald Trump to Congress yesterday. Kiwi chef Peter Gordon gives an insight into the current state of the restaurant industry - and tells us how to make a good meatball! Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A former Reserve Bank senior staffer ranks Adrien Orr as the least competent Reserve Bank Governor New Zealand's ever had. Orr's announced he's quitting two years into his second five year tenure. Geof Mortlock told Mike Hosking there's been many negative results from his monetary policies. He contends Orr has left New Zealand taxpayers with more than $10 billion of debt. His shock exit announcement yesterday comes as the bank is in the process of agreeing its funding increase for the next five years. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Today's surprise resignation by Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr has left experts with plenty of questions. Neither the Prime Minister nor Finance Minister are giving any details of why the most powerful, non-elected person in Government has abruptly quit. Not only have Nicola Willis and Chris Luxon gone to ground - the Reserve Bank will not answer media questions about the departure. ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper suspects Adrian Orr may have found other opportunities elsewhere - and aimed to leave while the economy was recovering. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The last seven years have been among the toughest in our economy's history, and the Reserve Bank has drawn both praise and criticism for its moves to get inflation under control.
Major question marks over the shock-resignation of Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Orr's laid out areas of his work he's proud of, but gave no reason for quitting almost half-way through his second, five-year term. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny unpacked the reactions to this announcement. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Wednesday March 5 2025, Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell joined Ryan Bridge to discuss Adrian Orr's shock resignation as Reserve Bank Governor. Trade Minister Todd McClay has also confirmed he's keeping a close eye on potential trade disruptions that could impact New Zealand as Trump's tariffs kick in. Former ACT leader Richard Prebble also unpacked the combination of factors that led to him stepping down from the Waitangi Tribunal. Plus, The Huddle wonders if body cameras for bin inspectors will do more harm than good. Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Tonight on The Huddle, Tim Wilson from the Maxim Institute and AUT chancellor Rob Campbell joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day - and more! Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr stunned the country by announcing a shock resignation earlier today. What do we think caused this? Did he want to leave - or was he pushed out? Recycling bin inspectors will be fitted with body cameras in a bid to reduce abuse on the job. What do we make of this? LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
There's surprise among economists and industry experts after Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr abruptly resigned today. Orr was almost halfway through his second five-year term. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says no one's received an adequate explanation as to why Orr chose to depart today - and it's not good enough. "Maybe he really is just exhausted - but still, you don't just walk out on the same day, on the eve of a really big conference being hosted tomorrow." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Industry experts have voiced their surprise after the Reserve Bank Governor abruptly resigned today. Adrian Orr was almost halfway through his second five-year term. Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen joined the Afternoons team to speculate about what could have caused this. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Today's surprise resignation by Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr has left experts with plenty of questions. Neither the Prime Minister nor Finance Minister are giving any details of why the most powerful, non-elected person in Government has abruptly quit. Not only have Nicola Willis and Chris Luxon gone to ground - the Reserve Bank will not answer media questions about the departure. ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper suspects Adrian Orr may have found other opportunities elsewhere - and aimed to leave while the economy was recovering. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Major question marks over the shock-resignation of Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Orr's laid out areas of his work he's proud of, but gave no reason for quitting almost half-way through his second, five-year term. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny unpacked the reactions to this announcement. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr has resigned suddenly - but why aren't we being told why he's moved on so swiftly? Also, what's his legacy in the role? And the stories keep coming on the government's cheaper free lunch in schools programme. Are these lunches up to scratch, and was the Prime Minister right to say unhappy parents can send their kids to school with a marmite sandwich and an apple? Labour's health and Wellington issues spokeswoman Ayesha Verrall and National's Otaki MP Tim Costley joined Nick Mills for Politics Thursday. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
There's confusion around the Reserve Bank Governor's resignation. Adrian Orr's announced he's quitting, two years into his second five-year tenure. Neither the Prime Minister nor Finance Minister are giving any details of why he's abruptly quit. University of Auckland Business School Professor Robert MacCulloch told Kerre Woodham that while we don't know for certain, the criticism Orr has received over the years likely played a factor. He recommends not getting too political about it, saying that one shouldn't take their eye off the ball that he was a bad governor, and the country stagnated due to significant mistakes made during his tenure. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr has resigned after seven years of service. Orr says the Reserve Bank's made considerable progress in its approach to financial policy throughout his time. Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says Orr could be feeling his job is done, now the economy is recovering. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Industry experts have voiced their surprise after the Reserve Bank Governor abruptly resigned today. Adrian Orr was almost halfway through his second five-year term. Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen joined the Afternoons team to speculate about what could have caused this. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
So, Adrian Orr is gone in a month. And he'll probably breathe a sigh of relief. He's been at the centre of public scrutiny ever since he got the job as NZ Super Fund CEO back in 2007. During his tenure as Reserve Bank Governor, he was damned no matter what he did because with every move there were victims who felt punished in the pocketbook. So, everyone has an opinion of Adrian Orr, and most are not that complimentary. Who needs that? He's 63 and wealthy and I'm sure keen to return to anonymity. So, was he as bad as many say? At the Super Fund he was generally hailed as a good operator who increased our savings. But he was also vilified for taking a million-dollar salary - a sum that was well below equivalent private positions. Was he stupid? No. He's got an impressive CV. There've been stints in Paris at the OECD then back here with the National Bank, the Reserve Bank, Westpac, and the Reserve Bank again, before landing the CEO job for the super fund in 2007 and then Reserve Bank Governor. If I have one criticism of Adrian Orr it's his lack of confidence in New Zealanders. When the pandemic started, he made money virtually free believing the economy would collapse. It didn't because Kiwis found a way. And the flood of money fuelled the fire of inflation combined with a government drunk on spending. When inflation raged, he reacted in an orthodox way by raising the interest rates. But he didn't figure on a government that then turned the Government spending tap off turning his big stick for the economy into a sledgehammer. Our macroeconomic policies have reeled from feast to famine over the past 5 years. It's certainly time for stability and conservative policies. So Adrian, after getting the ship headed towards a stable path has called it a day. I wish him and his family all the best and I hope he enjoys the peace, and I hope I never hear about him again. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
An independent economist says there'll be lasting questions about Adrian Orr's legacy as Reserve Bank Governor. His shock exit, announced yesterday, is halfway through his second five-year tenure. It also comes as the Reserve Bank is in the process of agreeing its funding increase for the next five years. Cameron Bagrie told Andrew Dickens everyone will have their own thoughts on the bank's recent choices. He believes they over-engineered the economic recovery and downturn. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
I'm neither happy or unhappy that Adrian Orr is no longer Reserve Bank Governor, but I do have a piece of advice for whoever ends up taking over from him. Just be the complete opposite. Because I reckon he fell into a trap that ended up with him getting too big for his boots. Which, maybe, is very hard to avoid when you're in a job like his, but the next person needs to make sure they stay in their lane and keeps themselves in check. When you're the Reserve Bank Governor, your job is to work on creating a rock star economy - you're not the rock star yourself. No one can argue that his tenure coincided with a time when what you would consider to be the most grey and dull jobs in the world, took on a whole new meaning. Ashley Bloomfield, for example. Because of COVID, everyone knew who he was. And Adrian Orr. Because of COVID, he was elevated to a level no other reserve bank governor got to in terms of profile and recognition. If you ask me to name another Reserve Bank Governor, the only name that comes to my head straight away is Don Brash. That's because of his political career that he got into after he left the bank. And if I think a little bit more, there's Alan Bollard. But that's it. But everyone pretty much knows who Adrian Orr is and I think it went to his head. I think he loved the limelight, and, in the process, he got a bit too cocky. I think he lost sight of what his job was actually all about. Nevertheless, I don't think he personally is to blame for everything when it comes to us feeling more hard up than ever. And, if he hadn't fallen into the trap of letting the job go to his head, he might not be copping as much criticism as he has and is. I'm with economist Tony Alexander who is saying today that business people and homeowners who blame Orr for their cashflow problems are both right and wrong. He's saying that they're right in that he oversaw the continuation of excessively loose spending during 2021 and into 2022, which over-stimulated the economy and pushed inflation up to 7.3%. He also was boss of the Reserve Bank when the official cash rate reached 5.5%. And then got it down to 2.2% by what Tony Alexander describes as Orr “crunching the economy”. But he also says, let's not forget Labour's Grant Robertson's role in all of this. He was the guy who kept fiscal policy loose. My understanding is that staff at the Reserve Bank had no idea this was coming until after it was announced to the media. Which is a shocker. And, apparently, staff at the bank have no idea what's behind it. I'm picking that he's thrown his toys out of the cot because the Government wants to cut the budgets at the Reserve Bank. And a lot of that will have to do with what the Government probably sees as the former Governor's obsession with things outside what it considers core business for the central bank. But, from the very limited things that have been said since the announcement yesterday afternoon, it's obvious that he's quit. Because when the chair of the bank Neil Quigley said it was “a personal decision” by Adrian Orr, that says he's quit. It doesn't say he's leaving for personal reasons, it says he's walking away. He's going to be on the payroll until the end of the month, but he's not Governor of the bank anymore. An acting Governor took over at midday yesterday. The other thing too about all this secrecy, is that I don't think it's acceptable when you've got a senior public servant who earns more than $800,000 a year quitting like this. On the basis of what we kind-of know, I think we deserve more of an explanation. If the guy's thrown a hissy fit - tell us. Because, for someone who seemed to love the limelight as much as he did, disappearing the way he has is not only very strange, it's also somewhat disrespectful. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Well, the announcement yesterday was on a par with John Key's resignation. The Reserve Bank Governor, Adrian Orr, pulled the plug on his career yesterday with no real explanation as to why – although it's no secret that there is friction between the Governor and the Finance Minister. You know, I know and certainly Adrian Orr knows that if she could have sacked him, she would, rather than inherit him with his five-year term as given to him by the former Labour government. Thomas Coughlan has written an excellent piece in the New Zealand Herald on the tension between Adrian Orr and Nicola Willis. He says while Willis observed the conventions of respecting the independence between the Beehive and the Bank, under questioning on Wednesday, she referred back to comments she made as the opposition finance spokeswoman when she was unmuzzled by ministerial warrant. When you're in opposition, you can say pretty much anything, you can criticise anybody you like. Once you become a minister, there are conventions to observe. So when she was asked questions about Adrian's resignation yesterday, she said, “I refer you back to earlier times when I could say what I liked”. And the comments she made back then were critical in the extreme of Adrian Orr's handling of the economy. Speaking of critical, if this is not the most withering, excoriating, damning assessment of a professional performance, I do not know what is. Former Reserve Bank senior staffer Geof Mortlock shared his thoughts on the Mike Hosking Breakfast this morning: “I was thinking that going through all of the Governor's since 1934, I would rank him as the worst in terms of competence – based really on the monetary policy results. You look at the inflation burst. Now some of that was external, but some of it was definitely a function of monetary policy actions. He's left taxpayers with over $10 billion of debt that could have gone into the public health system and other such things. He's nearly doubled the staff numbers of the Reserve Bank, and he's jacked up bank capital ratios to levels that I think are going to make it more difficult for the economy to actually start growing again.” Yikes. I heard that on the way into work this morning and let out a little nervous giggle-squeak in the car. I felt like I was back at school listening to a tongue lashing from Sister Clare, thinking, I'm glad it's not me, glad it's not me. ‘I've gone to 1934 and without a doubt, he is the worst in terms of competence.' There's been no explanation as to why Orr has resigned. It fits, I suppose, with his maverick nature that he'd just push off and stick two fingers to his colleagues and his staffers and indeed, the New Zealand public. The worst thing about the mess that's been left behind is that people are not criticising him with the benefit of hindsight. Even as he was making the decisions at the time, you might recall we had people ringing in saying this is going to cost us, it's too much, he's going too hard. There were people ringing in almost immediately saying we're going to pay for this and we're going to be paying for a very long time. There's going to be hell to pay along with $10 billion. And they were right. And they were calling it at the time. As a result of decisions made by Adrian Orr, and let's not forget: Grant Robertson. They were yoked together in tandem making those decisions, and a lot of Kiwis suffered. Interest rate increases in response to post pandemic inflation pushed the country into a recession and unemployment increased sharply - the words of Paul Bloxham from the HSBC who talked about the rock star economy a million years ago, when New Zealand used to have a good economy. He said, across the developed world HSBC's estimates suggest New Zealand's economy had the largest contraction in GDP in 2024 as a result of those decisions. And it's the real people, with families and jobs and bills to pay that suffered as a result of the poor decision making from the Reserve Bank Governor. It's hard to find anyone who's sorry that Adrian Orr is gone. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Reserve Bank is dangling the prospect of three more cuts to the official cash rate to around 3 percent by the end of the year. Reserve bank governor Adrian Orr spoke to business editor Gyles Beckford.
Pressure is mounting on banks to pass OCR cuts onto their customers. The Reserve Bank's signalling yesterday's double cut to the cash rate will be followed by at least two more single cuts. All major banks have started dropping their rates. But Governor Adrian Orr told Mike Hosking they need to go further. He says they need to be doing better, looking at their own margins, and chasing and competing for customers much more vigorously. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday the 20th of February, Winston Peters says we need a reset in our relationship with the Cook Islands. Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr joined to talk our future plans after they cut the OCR by 50 basis points. One of our most successful entrepreneurs Rowan Simpson has some ideas about how to turn this country around, and it's all laid out in his new book ‘How to be Wrong'. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Adrian Orr. Champion of the people. Well, that might be going a bit too far. But the Reserve Bank Governor was speaking my language when he says that dropping the Official Cash Rate, like he did yesterday, is just the start and that the banks have to do their bit too. And I couldn't agree more. He was having a dig at their profit margins. But for me generally, I don't give two hoots how much profits the banks make. Because profitable business are a good thing. Even profitable foreign-owned business. But where bank profits do seem obscene is when you consider the way they treat their customers. In particular, existing customers. They fall over themselves trying to get new customers, but if you're an existing bank customer - nah, you don't deserve any special treatment. Which is crazy, because everyone knows that generally it's easier to hold onto your current customers than get new ones through the door. Tell that to the banks, though. And, if you've got a mortgage with them —if you're an existing customer, like I am— it's people like us who get ripped-off while the banks try desperately to get new people signed-up. Case in point: I don't know how many times I've seen my bank of nearly 25 years running ads for loan rates for new customers way better than what I've been paying. And I go into a branch and say, “I've been with them for ages, can I get that same rate please?” And every time, it's been, “oh nah, that's for new customers only”. It's like they think they've got you over a barrel. Which they have, because most of us don't do anything about it, do we? I know we make threats that we're going to move to another bank, but I think the banks have done a very good job over the years of making us think that it costs too much to change banks. And that's what most of us end up doing. In my case, I walk out of the branch thinking all sort of things in my head, writing all sorts of letters in my head telling the bank where to go… but then, you know, suck it up and watch the new customers get the welcome mat at my expense. And it shouldn't be that way. If the banks were as really interested in being our partner in life and all that warm fuzzy nonsense they trot out, they wouldn't treat existing customers with such indifference. Which is why I think the Reserve Bank Governor is spot-on with his comments. To their credit, all the major banks did cut their interest rates after the announcement yesterday that the Official Cash Rate was going down. But again, not all customers benefit from that. If you're on a floating mortgage - yep you'll benefit. But if you're on a fixed rate - no change until it's up for renewal. So I'll give them some credit, but I think the banks still have a long way to go. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Before I came upstairs to work, I called into the coffee shop downstairs, as is my want. Coffee Theory is run by a husband and wife family team and is a small business. We were talking about the fact that Christopher Luxon will be in tomorrow, and I said “have you got a question?” And Penny said “When will things get better? I know they're supposed to be, but when will things get better? I just wish they'd get better faster”. And that's kind of what we were talking about in the wake of the polls showing the Coalition party support slipping. People do believe things are getting a bit better, but they want it to happen faster. Perhaps with the OCR falling by 50 points, as was widely expected by economists, things will start to look up. The floating rates dropped, some banks have dropped their loan term interest rates. And although the floating rate is more directly affected by the OCR, the long-term loan interest rates that are set by the banks are affected by other things like term deposits, and world events, and the like. Banks have been put on notice by Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr to sharpen their pencils, and they've been told in no uncertain terms to come up with better rates for their customers. “The banks need to do better. They need to look at their own margins and chase and compete for customers much more vigorously. Their funding costs are being challenged because, you know the official cash rate is only one of the variables that go into what they have to pay when they're borrowing money to on-lend, but the margin is also sitting there at a very healthy level, so one would hope that when the competition, when people come back to the market, which they're doing in dribs and drabs now, competition is alive.” That was Adrian Orr on the Mike Hosking Breakfast. And it is true. Once mortgage rates have been set, or loans have been set, and the interest rate for borrowing that money is a little bit lower, then there isn't as much that you have to pay, so there's a little bit leftover in your back pocket once the bills have been paid. And thus, the noose around the necks of so many homeowners and business owners will start to loosen. Already, some sectors have recovered, come back from the very brink. Federated Farmers says farmer confidence has risen to its highest level in more than a decade, rebounding from record lows. It couldn't have got much worse for our farming communities. Remember that lovely man that rang in? I can't even remember how long ago... he was the first caller, and he spoke with such passion and with such heartfelt pain about the despair so many farmers felt as the result of being vilified for what they did. For being on the receiving end of legislation that made it nigh impossible to do their job, and yet without them, we would be completely and utterly and royally stuffed. But he was too fearful of saying what he did. Rather than saying proudly, I'm a farmer, he just didn't feel he could say that. He didn't have any confidence at all that he would get a fair or civil reception. And that prompted an avalanche of calls from those in the farming community, young and old, who felt very much the same. So when they say it was at record lows, I heard it. Now, they say farmer confidence has risen to its highest level in more than a decade. The latest Farm Confidence survey shows that falling interest rates, rising incomes, and more favourable farming rules have played a major role in the improvement. And they say that's a significant shift in the mood of rural New Zealand. Thank heavens for that and not before time. Hopefully farmers can take a big deep breath, you might actually be getting some sleep at night and you can look forward to the future with a little bit of confidence. What other sectors are seeing that – it just farming? Is tourism feeling the same kind of confidence, the same optimism? I imagine for retailers you might need to wait for the flow and effect of lower mortgage interest rates. But I'd be really interested to see where you are in terms of your confidence, in terms of your belief, that things are getting better and that things will be better in the short term, within the next 6 months, that things will be looking up. The farmers are feeling it, they're feeling confident. They've seen what lower interest rates and reasonable fair legislation can do. What about you? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As widely predicted, the Reserve Bank has cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level in two years. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr held a press conference following the decision, stating that the cut reflects the ongoing decline in inflation and their confidence that this trend will continue. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Finally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand started cutting interest rates this year, having moved before everyone else and stayed higher for longer than everyone else. The economy slumped significantly early in the year, remaining firmly in recession since. By August 14, Adrian Orr felt safe enough to cut 25 basis points. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
People will have questions, after one of the country's worst quarterly GDP dips in decades. Stats NZ figures show New Zealand's gross domestic product crashed down one percent in the September quarter. It's put the country in the deepest recession since the Covid-driven slump in 2020. Former Finance Minister Steven Joyce says the Reserve Bank Governor, Adrian Orr, needs to speak up and explain. "I think there is some legitimate questions to be asked - I can remember, quite recently, him saying he's got it all under control and that this is going to be a soft landing. Well, quite clearly, it wasn't." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We knew the Government books were going to be bad, but not this bad. No way we're getting to the surplus we expected in 2028. That is now so far away it's not even in Treasury's forecast period anymore. It's some time, who knows when, in the 2030's. We'll have to borrow another $20b in debt to tide us over for the next four years. That'll push our interest payments over $10b every year. So we'll be spending more on our debt interest than we spend on Defence, Corrections, Police, and Customs combined. Now, this is not the current Government's fault. This is a recession caused by Adrian Orr and the Reserve Bank to deal with Labour's overspending. But National are not doing what they need to. They need to be cutting way harder than they are. There is a measure we use to look at how much the Government is adding to, or reducing from, economic growth. It's called public consumption. They were supposed to cut that by 1.4% this year. They cut it by 0.2%. That's basically no cut. Next year it's supposed to cut by 2.2%. Now, it's by another 0.2%, which is to say they're actually not cutting much at all. We still pay the wages of 14,000 more public servants than we did in 2018. They've only cut one public agency, which is the Productivity Commission. Nicola Willis spent more in her last budget than Grant Robertson ever did. National keeps saying they can't cut more because they don't want austerity, but we are so far from austerity it's not funny. We are spending more and hiring more public servants than five years ago. The trouble with that is we're in a recession, which we weren't five years ago. National needs to treat this like the economic trainwreck it is and cut their cloth accordingly. They might not be responsible for the mess we're in, but they are responsible for fixing it and so far, they're really not fixing it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In 2022, Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr told Christmas shoppers to “cool your jets”, as the bank scrambled to control inflation by hiking interest rates. This week - now inflation has been beaten back down - he delivered another whopper 50-basis point rate cut in the RBNZ's latest monetary policy statement. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the governor's gradual transformation from OCR grinch to Father Christmas, and how many more rate cuts we can expect to see in the new year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It's ironic that we mention the Commerce Commission yesterday and here we are today, indulging in a bit more of its madness. Lines charges, the cost of getting power to your house, is going to get more expensive. Your bill will rise for the next handful of years by up to $85. That's over $1,000 a year. Is your power better? No. Do you get more power? No. You just pay more. Why? Because the Commerce Commission decided they are going to let Transpower and local lines companies charge more so they can invest in new infrastructure. They will be allowed to raise just shy of $6 billion. There are a few ironies with this: 1) We also, says the Commission, understand the importance of incentivising business to invest and improve and meet consumer demands. What?! You don't think they would charge this and more if they could? And what incentive? Transpower are a monopoly. They have no incentive to improve anything. 2) The $6 billion is way more than it should be. What should it be? Under $3 billion. Why? Because 55% of what Transpower is doing is because of higher inflation and interest rates. And what is 55% of $6 billion, roughly? Now, how did we get those? That's right - Adrian Orr. If you want yet another tangible example, as the Labour Government and Adrian Orr years of incompetence roll on, then here you are. $3 billion worth, that is for nothing other than admin and fees. Stuff that should not have happened if the approach in Covid hadn't been as grandiose and wasteful and plain idiotic. More inflation than we ever needed, leading of course to interest rates we shouldn't have had to try and bring back to Earth, entirely as a result of the Covid approach that crippled the country. Yes, there are plenty of intangibles like morals, behaviours, mental health and school attendance. But we are also paying Transpower $6 billion to do what they should have done anyway. Awesome economics in an awesome economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.