Don Paul Bits o Blather on Weather, Climate, and Some Humor

After a very warm Monday and steamy Tuesday, Beryl's remnant low as a decaying system now is favored in new guidance to take a track favoring increasing showers & tstorms in WNY by Wed into parts of Thursday.

Low risk of Isolated strong to Severe Tstorms Friday evening, lots of rainfree time this summery weekend, and latest on Beryl's future U.S. impacts. PLEASE SHARE, FOLLOW.

Scattered showers & tstorms move in by Wednesday evening, but exit for the 4th, returning on the 5th. It will be muggier Wednesday night into Saturday, but not the kind of heat we had 2 weeks ago. Extended outlook + info on Beryl.

Saturday will be the most active of the next 4 days, with spotty convection increasing in the afternoon, few heavy storms, low risk of severe...but not a steady rain. 7 day outlook included.

Some ups and downs the remainder of the week...limited chance of Severe Tstorms Saturday, early signs of a seasonably warm 4th in what will likely be a very warm July when all is said and done.

Monday was sticky but not oppressive, yet. A few spotty showers & tstorms may return during afternoon heating, but partial sunshine, the heat dome high centered to our east, and a muggy SW flow will enhance the heat impacts. I'll let you know when relief is finally coming.

After we enjoy a lovely, comfortable weekend, Real Deal Heat & Humidity Arrives Monday through next week, which will probably be the hottest, steamiest week we've experienced in years in WNY, to which we're not acclimated.

After a lovely weekend, with only gentle warming on Sunday, the Real Deal Heat arrives Monday and lasts through next week. That will be combination with oppressive humidity making for a stressful stretch to which WNYers are not acclimated.

After a few day of unseasonable chill, we face a Moderating Midweek, with Warm temps by Thur, and readings moving toward Very Warm to HOT by Monday and next week. PLEASE SHARE.

After a very unsettled Friday afternoon, Saturday will turn out to be dry until evening. The wettest part of the weekend will be later Saturday evening, with more dry time by late AM Sunday. Notable warmup later next week.

Some midsummer warmth and some noticeable (but not oppressive) humidity building by Wednesday, ahead of a cooler but unsettled pattern lasting into the weekend. PLEASE SHARE.

After a chilly finish to a Mild May, warmth will be rebuilding this weekend into most of the first week of June, ahead of some cooling by next weekend. PLUS the latest on Canadian wildfire smoke.

Saturday becomes increasingly unsettled by midday/afternoon w/SCT & Occ'l Showers & Tstorms. Sunday is the nicest day of the weekend, with periods of convection crossing the region from late Sunday night through Memorial Day. PLUS the ominous NOAA Hurricane Outlook explained.

If temps reach the 80s, is a 60 degree dew point REALLY "humid?" A subjective discussion on our WNY perceptions of muggification PLUS the forecast into next Monday follows.

A rare SPC High Risk for strong, long-track tornadoes later Monday & Monday evening in OK and KS, while tranquil, mild conditions prevail through Tuesday in WNY, with a wetter and cooler pattern to follow. PLEASE SHARE.

Lots of rainfree time Saturday and Sunday afternoons, but unsettled conditions return by Tuesday evening after a nice start to the week. Wed/Thur will bring periods of showers, with a cooler pattern beginning to set up late in the week into the following week. PLEASE SHARE.

Temperatures will be running above average starting Wednesday through all of next week, possibly including some low 80s on Friday...cold fronts with no cold air behind them will be the rule for some time to come. PLEASE SHARE.

Gardeners, frost and freeze conditions will be with us Wednesday and Thursday nights, but a notable warmup will begin by Friday into next week...though not without complications. PLEASE SHARE.

A mixed bag of weather into the weekend and next week, none of it especially warm...but there will be some decent days mixed in. PLEASE SHARE, FOLLOW.

Gusty winds and the sometimes raw wind chill they produce will hold into Saturday. Rain showers Friday night will turn to some slushy snow late Friday night over the hills, and the mixed showers will wind down Saturday AM. Occ'l Showers & a few Tstorms will return Sunday, ahead of a temporary warming trend.

Hi res satellite imagery shows rapid movement of the cloud deck and the clearing which trails behind it to the NE. Models have clearing arriving just too late for totality in westernmost WNY, but imagery leaves slivers of hope. Also, a forecast for the week ahead, including 70s on Tuesday!

Some broken upper level and mid level cloudiness is likely to move over WNY during Monday, but the news is NOT all bad. In fact, some partial cloud cover may present different types of spectacle than you might be expecting. PLEASE SHARE.

While Western New York cloud climatology--past history--wasn't very optimistic for eclipse viewing, it was never a substitute for a data-driven actual weather FORECAST for April 8th. The good news is the actual forecast is better than climatology. Please SHARE, FOLLOW.

Nasty, windy, rainy...a Flood WATCH up for WNY late Tue nite-Thur PM for possible urban/poor drainage flooding PLUS only Guarded optimism for eclipse cloud forecast, and by "guarded" I mean imperfect viewing based on current data.

Some Saturday showers should be gone for a mostly to partly cloudy Easter Sunday, with lighter winds both weekend days. Some Tue-Wed rain may change to a little slushy snow Wed night/Thur AM. Early hints point to moderating temps next weekend and for the eclipse. I'll be filling in on News 4 Saturday evening and Monday, starting at 4 thru 11.

The warming peaks early this week, on Monday and Tuesday, with COOLer, not Colder temps to follow. PLUS why eclipse cloud cover forecasts 2 weeks in advance are essentially worthless.

The peak warming this week occurs early, on Monday and Tuesday, followed by COOLer, not COLDer temperatures beginning Wednesday, more along the lines of "seasonable." PLUS why eclipse cloud cover forecasts 2 weeks in advance are not worth the bandwidth they devour.

This may be wintry weather's last gasp as far as measurable snow goes coming in by late Friday into early Saturday, with significant, slushy accumulations likely on the Niagara Frontier. A milder pattern is setting up for next week, but no more snow is in sight after this messy snow and mixed precip exits.

Stepping away from science for this one episode to offer a short explanation of my editorial policy on social media.

The long-advertised colder pattern will be setting up on schedule, but it won't be leaving on schedule...it's stretching out into late next week, with no major warmup yet in sight. Also, some chatter on record oceanic warmth, earlier high pollen counts, and a reminder on exploding tick populations. PLEASE SHARE.

After a fairly wet Thursday evening, cooler weather arrives for Friday. Some wind chill will be felt in the Saturday First Ward parade, but Sunday will be raw-er of the 2 parade days with colder temps, a gusty wind, and maybe even a few wet snowflakes. The forecast and extended outlook follow.

After some midweek moderation, and some late week showers, a little cooling arrives for both parade days in Buffalo. Nothing overly harsh, though Sunday may feel a bit chillier than Saturday, with below average temps much of next week...and some Tick Talk following the record warm winter.

After a windy & occasionally wet Saturday, a transition over to snow will occur by Sunday morning. Moderate to marginally heavy amounts will be possible on a raw, windy Sunday on the hills, with much lesser amounts at lower elevations...and we'll look ahead all the way to St. Patrick's weekend.

Despite the chill in the air Wednesday after record warmth Monday and Tuesday, readings are still above average. A weekend storm system will bring us Saturday rain on its warmer side and Sunday snow on its colder side, especially on the hills. Renewed warming returns by midweek, next week. Please Share, Follow.

It's easy to forget what's average in early March...high 30s, when you smash the Monday record high by 9 degrees, with a 72. By Wednesday, we're back to the upper 40s, and it gets TEMPORARILY worse than that during the weekend...probably including a bit of "you know what" in the forecast.

Meteorological/climatological spring is underway, from March through May, after finishing the warmest meteorological winter on record. And we will be off to a warm start! Please Share, Follow.

A borderline wild weather week is in store, with warmer temps, some thunder, and one quick hit of wintry weather (with some flakes) thrown in, plus an extended outlook. Please Share, Follow.

What do you need to know about cloud cover types and probabilities for the coming April 8th Total Eclipse? I fill you in on what I told the Washington Post this week on this topic and while, yes, WNY has higher cloud cover probabilities than San Antonio at that time, there has been some undue pessimism on this topic in the press and on social media.

Scattered lake effect snow showers Saturday have already produced patchy 1" accumulations, but more will be coming late Saturday night into Sunday midday. As winds back from WNW to SW later this evening, and almost SSW, that will send better developed lake snow to the metro area and northtowns, as well as srn Niag, wrn Orleans, and NW Gen Cos. Snow will be moderate to occasionally heavy with sharply reduced visibility in Blowing Snow. I'll be off the clock on vaca for a week...talk to you in about 7 days.

The rate of Greenland's ice cap melt has turned out to be 20% greater than previous estimates for recent decades, and that spells global trouble. Several new studies confirm this ice mass loss, increasing the rate of sea level rises and the more common coastal flooding both with storms and monthly high tides. In addition, all this freshwater is diluting the salinity of the N Atlantic, raising the risk of a shutdown of the Gulf Stream, as has occurred several times in the Earth's history, with drastic consequences.

An exceptionally strong El Nino is a key player in what will be a brief heavy snowstorm in NYC Tuesday AM (snow has become a rarity in the Big Apple), and will bring more potent Pacific storms into CA by next weekend. It also is fueling one of the mildest winters ever observed not only in WNY, but in the upper midwest and the northeast...the snow drought continues in most places east of the Rockies. Please Share, Follow.

A long-advertised return to wintry weather arrives during the weekend, but it looks lots less impressive than some on social media would have had you believe. Yes, it will turn notably colder, but nothing truly harsh is yet headed our way...and snow potential is equally unimpressive for most of our region. Share, Follow.

We're catching quite a break this week with more sunny afternoons than we've seen in a long while, and warming temperatures peaking Thursday and Friday. That transition to a wintry pattern is still coming, and appears sped up a bit next week, but it may not be a "bottom falls out" cold spell, and may not last as long as some folks have been projecting. Please Share, Follow.

We can have fun with Groundhog Day. After all, Phil the Rodent didn't see his shadow (except for tv lights) this morning, and we WILL be getting nearly springlike temps by mid and late week, next week. But...this is a hiatus, NOT an early spring, as I explain in this episode. Please Share, Follow.

Maybe a few bits o' sun Wednesday, more abundant sun likely this weekend, but no major precip in sight thru late next week, temps running a bit above average this week, and more above average next week. Quick look at a probable pattern change mid-month.

The setup and the details on what has been and remains a unique, deadly ground blizzard event, not a lake effect storm, impacting all of WNY....Could there ever be another storm like it? Please Share, Follow.

After some flooding rain and snowmelt Friday in Erie & Niagara Cos, widespread mixed precip and snow is headed for all WNY for Sunday. Marginal temps should keep amounts modest, with some melting, but should those readings be colder than currently modeled, accumulations may be more significant...so it "bears watching." Following that, better news for those with wet basements.

A departure from science, as I venture into my pre-tv past as an NYC radio flunky, leading to my encounters with the Mafia in Manhattan. It may sound embellished, but it isn't...and should deliver some laughs or, at least, smiles (none of them from the late Joe Columbo). It's not a boring story, folks. :D

A shorter episode on the big weather story...the THAW. With its onset will come some snow on Tuesday in Western New York, but no lake effect or blowing snow, and a modest amount at that. The snow is followed by plain, liquid rain Wednesday and Thursday with temps moving well above average...lots of melting will be going on, but a flood threat seems low. This moderate pattern will have staying power, too...not just in WNY but across the country.

A forecast and extended outlook discussion concerning a significant pattern change arriving next week, and a comparison between extreme weather impacts in Western New York compared to extreme impacts elsewhere in the U.S. (Hint: a record 28 $Billion+ disasters last year, none of them in WNY.)