The Alonso Bet Podcast

In the 50th episode of The Alonso Bet we cover some news from the last couple weeks (4:02), discuss some surging and struggling teams (21:13), and some stars taking their talents to new levels (42:38).

In our first in season 2021 episode we talk about the controversial game endings involving Michael Conforto and Alec Bohm (2:32) and some notable early season team (17:51) and player (38:43) performances.

It's Opening Day folks!! We preview today's slate of games (2:08) and Aaron gives some quick thoughts on Daily Fantasy strategy (7:50). Then we both give our seasons predictions for the playoffs (20:26) and awards (34:56).

In the final installment of our division preview series Aaron discusses what small signal you can take from spring training performance when drafting your fantasy teams (2:04), and we preview the AL Central division (12:24).

In the fifth installment of our season preview series we give our favorite MLB World Series and player futures bets for the 2021 season (0:55) and then Sam cannot hide his euphoria as we preview the Mets and the NL East (28:15).

In the fourth installment of our season preview series we discuss the Jackie Bradley Jr. signing (2:33), Aaron discusses strategies for the later rounds of your fantasy baseball draft (11:04), and finally we preview the very intriguing AL West division (25:43).

In the third installment of our division preview series Aaron gives his advice on how to crush the middle rounds of your fantasy baseball draft (1:42) and we preview the middling NL Central division (12:05).

In the second installment of our season preview series we preview the AL East (23:06). But first we discuss the Kevin Mather comments (2:31), Taijuan Walker to the Mets (10:03), and Aaron gives his advice on how to approach the first two rounds of your fantasy baseball drafts (13:28).

Pitchers and catchers have reported and that means it's baseball season folks. We start with a rundown of the Andrew Benintendi trade (4:58) and the kick off the first installment of our 2021 MLB season preview with our preview of the NL West (18:48).

The guys toot their own horns for some Super Bowl bets and give their thoughts on the big game (2:05). Then they discuss some of the last big dominos to fall in MLB Free Agency (15:20) (including Trevor Bauer, Marcell Ozuna, and Nelson Cruz) and give their initial reactions on the newly released 2021 Fangraphs playoff odds (https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds) (50:41).

The guys discuss the passing of Hank Aaron (1:32) and a laundry list of transactions in the MLB (6:23). Then they give their thoughts on the Matthew Stafford trade (1:10:55) and their favorite Super Bowl bets to help all of you make money this Sunday (1:14:22).

The guys discuss the Mets firing of GM Jared Porter (0:40) and a plethora of signings and trades in the MLB (13:55). Then they theorize some possible trade destinations for Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford (1:02:05) and give their latest thoughts on the NFL playoffs (1:17:20).

The MLB hot stove continues to burn white hot and the guys discuss the blockbuster trade of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets (1:11), in addition to some other moves around the league (23:12). Then after a quick recap of the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs (39:40), the guys discuss all the implications of the James Harden trade (44:28) and their early season thoughts on the rest of the NBA (1:05:13).

We kick things off with baseball for a change and discuss the flurry of moves made by the Padres (1:37) and a couple of other moves around the league (31:09). Then with the NFL playoffs starting next week, Aaron and Sam give their picks for the playoff bracket and who will be crowned Super Bowl champs (39:55).

In a special holiday segment Sam's dad makes a return to the podcast to discuss his thoughts on the Jets unlikely victory possibly losing them Trevor Lawrence (1:45) and the Mets signing James McCann (9:53). Then after discussing a few interesting moves in the MLB (22:33) the guys preview the start of the NBA season (33:23).

We kick things off by discussing the evolving James Harden saga and which team we think he fits best on out of his ever-growing trade list (3:15). Then we help all you struggling fantasy football players by giving our best waiver wire pickups for the upcoming playoff weeks (13:13). Finally we get to baseball, where we run through all the latest signings and trades (24:49) before quizzing each other on Baseball Savant's Swing/Take (discussed in last episode's Stat Corner) leaderboards (47:38). 

After a quick recap of the Russell Westbrook - John Wall trade (3:26) and the COVID situation in the NFL (11:48), The Alonso Bet podcast gets back to its roots with a jam-packed baseball-filled episode. We give the fans what they've been begging for with the return of everyone's favorite segment, Stat Corner, where we explain the concept of pitch values (20:30) and take our listeners through how to look at the extremely cool pitch value aggregate tool on Baseball Savant, the Swing Take Visuals (32:41). We then discuss the Free Agency signings of Charlie Morton (53:08), Trevor May (58:25), and Mike Minor (1:02:13), before discussing the long list of non-tendered players (1:06:41).

The guys discuss some big signings in NBA Free Agency (2:17) and news from NFL Week 11 (15:00). Then Aaron and Sam hold themselves accountable and review the success of their bold predictions from before the MLB season (39:25).

In a marathon episode we cover a barrage of recent NBA trades (2:03) and preview the 2020 NBA Draft (31:49). Then on the baseball side of things we discuss the beginning phases of MLB free agency (57:05) and with the release of the 2021 HOF ballot Aaron and Sam discuss who they would include on their theoretical ballot this year (1:30:05). 

After a week off we discuss some big MLB news including Steve Cohen officially becoming the owner of the New York Mets (the greatest day of Sam's life) (2:24), a trio of managerial hires (10:41) (Tony La Russa to the White Sox  Alex Cora back to the Red Sox, and AJ Hinch to the Tigers), and the league's decision not to discipline Justin Turner (22:10). After a quick update on the schedule for the upcoming NBA season (24:49) we go over some of the action from Week 9 of the NFL (26:16), and give some waiver wire picks for the struggling fantasy football players among our listeners (31:22). Finally, we preview the upcoming awards announcements for the 2020 MLB season (37:27).

We run long here folks but we're reviewing the freaking World Series! If you want to start at the World Series discussion skip to 15:45! But first we discuss Daryl Morey becoming the GM of the Philadelphia 76ers (1:00) and a trio of NFL moves (10:24). Then it's the moment this podcast has been building up to - a review of all the crazy twists and turns of the 2020 World Series (15:45). We discuss Kershaw finally coming through in the postseason (16:48), the Randy Arozarena breakout (25:39), the wild ending to Game 4 (39:58), Kevin Cash's fateful decision to pull Blake Snell (54:00), the postgame fiasco and what on Earth Justin Turner was thinking (1:08:57), and finally what the future holds for the Rays and Dodgers (1:20:07).

What seemed impossible a few months ago has happened -- we've made it to the WORLD SERIES. But first in a return to the original Alonso Bet format the guys discuss some news including Daryl Morey stepping down as Rockets GM (2:20), Le'Veon to the Chiefs (11:27), Tua starting for the Dolphins (13:39), and the end of the Billy Beane era in Oakland (18:30). Then in a pseudo Stat Corner the guys answer a listener question and discuss what changes about game management and strategy in postseason baseball versus the regular season (23:50). Finally, the guys discuss all the juicy plot points of the World Series previewing the strengths and question marks for both the Dodgers (37:50) and Rays (56:05).

The episode starts with some audio clips from a live recording of Aaron and Sam watching game 5 of the Yankees and Rays series (1:37). The guys then discuss the Lakers winning the NBA finals and Lebron's legacy (3:40) and Week 5 in the NFL (17:41) before Aaron offers a fantasy football trade to Sam to help the fortunes of his 0-5 team (24:56). Next, they dive into baseball reviewing the division series and previewing the championship series in the NL (29:18) and AL (45:54), and discussing the White Sox surprising decision to fire Rick Renteria (1:01:00). Finally, they discuss the careers of legends Whitey Ford (1:06:40) and Joe Morgan (1:09:43) after their recent passings.

FOR BASEBALL PLAYOFFS JUMP TO 40:30!   After a two week layoff the boys are back with a big NFL whip-around (2:25) that includes an absolute HEATER from our very Sam Saskin that just begins to make up for the namesake bet of this podcast (7:50). After reveling in Sam's betting glory we take a peak at the current state of the NBA Finals (33:10). We then review all of the series in the Wild Card round of the MLB playoffs (40:30) where Aaron offers a hearfelt apology to Tim Anderson (1:04:00). The guys then preview the Divisional Series (1:05:08) before closing the episode out with a tribute to one of the all time greats, Bob Gibson (1:18:40).

The guys start by discussing the matchups for the conference finals in the NBA playoffs (1:33) and some takeaways from NFL week 1 (17:52). They then discuss the sale of the Mets (30:50), the agreement on a playoff bubble (34:52), and Manfred's statement that expanded playoffs could be here to stay (43:10). Finally, they preview the awards races going into the last 10 games of the season (49:45), before answering a couple mailbag questions from a listener (1:09:51).

The guys start with their weekly update on the NBA playoffs (2:05). Aaron and Sam then recap their fantasy football draft (13:22) and give their Week 1 NFL gambling picks (31:40). They then move to baseball with a quick run through the state of the MLB (40:01) and finally a tribute to the lives and careers of Tom Seaver (46:35) and Lou Brock (56:47).

The guys discuss some of the recent athlete protests (1:53) and the latest in the NBA playoffs (5:05). They then give a stretch run update on the MLB playoff race (14:38) before giving their thoughts on all the exciting trade deadline deals (24:20).

The guys kick things off by discussing the amazing weekend action in the NBA playoffs (1:40) before giving a mid-season review of the current state of the MLB playoff race (9:14). They then talk about what to make of Bryce Harper's return to MVP form and how likely it is to last (20:15). Aaron follows up with some quick fantasy advice and an update on his own fantasy team (30:08). Finally, Aaron and Sam both draft a team of the best under-25 players in baseball (34:31)!

After a two week layoff for Sam to get some summer sunshine the guys jump into IL moves and the COVID situation in the MLB (2:25) before previewing the NBA playoffs (17:33). To make up for lost time Sam and Aaron run through a host of surprising early season team and player performances and answer the age old question: real, or not? (27:25) Finally, the guys unveil their current top 10 power rankings in baseball (50:56).

The guys discuss the Jamal Adams trade (1:07), the Knicks signing Tom Thibodeau to be their new Head Coach (6:33), the NBA restart (10:37), COVID outbreaks in MLB (13:16), and the incidents leading to Joe Kelly's suspension (20:10). For Stat Corner we discuss our first NBA stat, Real Plus-Minus (RPM), in celebration of the season restart (26:05). Finally, we throw sample size to the wind and discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of some notable early season performances (35:25).

The guys discuss their thoughts on the 16 team playoffs (3:06), the Blue Jays playing in Buffalo (6:33), and a laundry list of player injuries and news to start the season (8:29). They then cover what they found interesting and exciting from all the incredible baseball action on Opening Day (18:41). Finally, Aaron lets everyone know his fantasy roster for the season and Sam gives his thoughts on Aaron's draft picks (44:31). 

Before the sports content Sam implores the listeners to watch Action Bronson's F*ck, That's Delicious before it goes off the Hulu platform (2:29). The guys then discuss Domingo German's potential retirement (3:40), Yasiel Puig's signing with the Braves being complicated by a Covid diagnosis (10:25), the sale of the Mets (14:26), and the Washington no-longer Redskins scandal (19:54). They then blend Stat Corner with a rapid fire season preview discussing their thoughts on each team's Fangraphs Depth Charts projected wins and playoff odds (23:23). Finally, Aaron and Sam both give their favorite Opening Day memory (51:30).

The guys talk the Patrick Mahomes megadeal (2:00) and Joe West being an idiot about coronavirus (7:19), before a Stat Corner (12:45) where they explain the win expectancy stats like Pythagorean Win Expectancy and Fangraphs BaseRuns. Finally, Aaron and Sam both give 5 bold predictions for the 2020 MLB Season (25:37), including some players they like and don't like and some quirky stats as well.

In an action packed episode the guys discuss Rob Manfred putting his foot in his mouth (0:26), Cam Newton signing with the New England Patriots (3:25), Bobby Bonilla Day (8:38), the sad news on Andrew Toles (14:36), and some MLB transactions (16:31). In Stat Corner (21:52) they discuss a more sophisticated alternative to RBIs in RE24, and finally they have on Jeremy Wolf to discuss his non-profit organization, More Than Baseball, which works to improve the lives of minor league baseball players (33:00).

Aaron and Sam jump on with each other to talk out their initial thoughts on the official plan for the 2020 MLB season. They discuss the potential effects of the 60 game schedule on team strategies, individual performance, and fantasy baseball, and their thoughts on some of the rule and scheduling changes for the season.

The guys discuss some player news in the Jamal Adams trade request (2:15) and Addison Russell signing with the KBO (6:48). They then get into a now weekly segment of lamenting the state of negotiations between MLB owners and players (8:22), before discussing some discouraging COVID trends that could spell trouble for all American sports leagues (18:01). In Stat Corner, as a Father's Day gift, we discuss some traditional baseball stats and where they both succeed and fall short in evaluating offensive performance (21:22). Finally, to wrap up our Father's Day special we talk to Sam's father (38:25) about his love of the Mets and his hate of fantasy sports and Aaron's father (49:33) about his disgust with the state of baseball and its decay since the glory days of Sandy Koufax.

The guys discuss the quickly approaching endgame of the MLB negotiations (1:40) and give a breakdown of the top 10 picks from the 2020 MLB Draft (9:54). In Stat Corner they delve into another advanced pitching, which tries to improve on xFIP by taking contact into account, SIERA (23:15). Finally, Aaron and Sam both redraft the first round of the 2010 MLB Draft (30:15). Intro music courtesy of The Baseball Project Outro music courtesy of Yung Kartz

The guys talk about the exciting news of a plan being approved for the NBA to return (2:20) and the not so exciting news of a stalemate in negotiations for MLB to return (16:30). In Stat Corner (31:02) they discuss how Statcast data is being used to improve the accuracy of fielding stats with Outs Above Average (OAA). Finally, Aaron and Sam both build their All-Decade MLB teams, where they fill each position on the field with a player's performance from a single decade (1910s-2010s) in MLB history, and they can only select a single player from each decade (42:25).

Aaron and Sam discuss the latest on plans for the return of the NBA (2:55) and negotiations between the MLB owners and players (11:18), before discussing their thoughts on the charity golf match that pitted Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady vs. Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning (16:57). In a mega Stat Corner segment we give a primer on all things Statcast (21:28) including the technology that goes into tracking the ball and players and the types of new statistics (such as xwOBA) that use Statcast tracking data. Finally, the guys try to stump each other in the second installment of their trivia segment (44:18).

In a very exciting and informative interview, the guys get a chance to sit down with prominent sabermetric writer, Ben Lindbergh. After a quick introduction (1:35), Ben took us through some incredible stories from the time he was given a chance to run an Independent League baseball team (Sonoma Stompers), as is detailed in his book The Only Rule is it Has to Work (7:25). Ben then talks about some of the details of his book The MVP Machine (26:07). He provides insight into the post-Moneyball era, how players are using cutting-edge science and technology to influence how they train, the role of analysts in decision making, and how teams are using data-driven approaches in crafting their player development pipelines. Intro music courtesy of The Baseball Project Transition music courtesy of Yung Kartz

The guys discuss all the details of a contentious battle brewing between the players and owners (3:25) and the league's decision to reduce the 2020 MLB draft down to 5 rounds (24:20). In Stat Corner (30:59) they give a breakdown of all the components of Fangraphs' Baserunning Runs (BSR) metric, and finally the guys do a deep dive into some of the interesting story lines and players of the first week of the KBO season (38:54).  Intro music courtesy of The Baseball Project

In the first episode after the conclusion of the season preview series the guys are back with some great news -- baseball's back for KBO opening day! They also discuss encouraging plans to start the MLB season in early July. In Stat Corner the guys breakdown Win Probability Added (WPA), and finally they each build a perfect 5 tool player inspired by MLB.com's series (https://www.mlb.com/news/building-the-best-5-tool-player-mlb).

In this special episode of The Alonso Bet, Sam and Aaron have Jake Mintz of Céspedes Family BBQ on to talk a little baseball. Jake takes us down his path to working in the game and shares a few good stories along the way. Finally, Jake helps the guys conclude their season preview with 2020 awards predictions and they all discover a shared love for the manager of the year award! Introduction 0:00 Introducing Jake 4:22 Manager of the Year 21:20 Jake's Dominican Winter Ball Experience 29:21 Breakout Players 35:17 Rookie of the Year 43:22 Cy Young 46:37 Most Valuable Player 51:38    

Aaron and Sam cover a surprisingly busy few days in sports including the NFL Draft, Rob Gronkowski coming out of retirement, some Mets ownership rumors, and an exciting charity golf match. Then the guys go in depth on catcher framing in Stat Corner before bringing team predictions to a close. It's what you've all been waiting for: Our 2020 World Series and Playoffs Picks!

Aaron and Sam conclude their division preview series with the NL East and lock horns as Sam defends the Mets against Aaron's slander. But first they talk about the new ESPN documentary series "The Last Dance" and introduce a new segment where they quiz each other on baseball trivia. In this week's Stat Corner the guys introduce Isolated Slugging (ISO).

Aaron and Sam start off on a somber note to discuss a few unfortunate deaths in the sports community. They also celebrate the career of the recently retired 2018 WS MVP Steve Pearce and discuss the MLB The Show Players League. In Stats Corner they discuss the first group of defensive metrics in DRS and UZR, and finally they give their prediction for the AL Central.

Aaron and Sam continue their division preview with the NL West division. But first they give their thoughts on some of the proposed rule changes for the upcoming season and cover their first advanced pitching stats: FIP and xFIP.

In episode 3, Aaron and Sam make a plea to their listeners to support Fangraphs in these troubling times of no baseball and continue their advanced stats primer series with the offensive stats wOBA and WRC+. Finally, they give their predictions for the AL East this season. Don't worry Yankees fans, they were able to put aside their biases.

In the second ever episode of The Alonso Bet, Aaron tries to talk Sam off the ledge regarding the Noah Syndergaard injury news and the guys get detailed about what goes into WAR (wins above replacement). Finally, Aaron and Sam take a deep dive into one of the most interesting divisions in baseball, giving  their NL Central predictions.

Aaron and Sam introduce themselves to the world and explain the origin of The Alonso Bet name. They then begin their season preview by giving an overview of projection systems and their predictions for the AL West.