The Gustonomics Podcast

The Gustonomics Podcast

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Join Gusto’s Lead Economist, Liz Wilke, as she charts the economic landscape for busy owners of 21st-century businesses. In each 10-minute episode, Liz discusses economic concepts and trends for entrepreneurs who want to make smarter business decisions in a changing world.

Gusto


    • Nov 6, 2024 LATEST EPISODE
    • every other week NEW EPISODES
    • 15m AVG DURATION
    • 45 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from The Gustonomics Podcast

    The Gustonomics Pod-in-Review

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2024 20:57


    In this final episode before an indefinite hiatus, Liz and Caleb revisit some of the topics from past episodes.

    The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Tax Credits

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2024 21:03


    Tax credits are a popular tool of policymakers to influence the behavior of people and businesses. But they don't come without tradeoffs or cumbersome rules to follow. Caleb and Liz discuss. Shownotes Are Today's Tax Credits the Best Way to Get Americans to Buy E.V.s? [NYT]

    The Fix Is In: Monopolies and Anti-Competition

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2024 32:04


    In the midst of a surge of antitrust lawsuits from the last several years, Caleb and Liz break down monopolies, anti-competitive behavior, and what it means for small businesses. Shownotes Google, Visa, JetBlue: A Guide to a New Era of U.S. Antitrust Cases [NYT] ‘Google Is a Monopolist,' Judge Rules in Landmark Antitrust Case [NYT] After Google Antitrust Ruling, Here's Where Other Big Tech Cases Stand [NYT] U.S. Prepares to Challenge Google's Online Ad Dominance [NYT]

    Does Price Gouging Cause Inflation?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2024 24:43


    Who or what caused the jump in inflation from the past few years? There is no shortage of alleged culprits, and one popular theory is that it's been driven by exploitative prices at the grocery store (aka, price gouging). Caleb and Liz discuss the role of price gouging, and how much blame (or not) it deserves. Shownotes Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022—A Pattern Seen in Past Economic Recoveries [KC Fed] Tight Labor Markets Have Been a Key Contributor to High Food Inflation [KC Fed] Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation? [SF Fed] Are greedy companies to blame for grocery inflation? We looked at the data [NPR] What is ‘price gouging' and why is VP Harris proposing to ban it? [AP] Harris Plans to Ban Grocery ‘Price Gouging.' What Does the Evidence Say? [NYT]

    The Comeback of Tariffs

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2024 29:01


    For decades, free trade had been touted by business leaders, economists, and policy makers as the best way for countries to exchange goods and services. But that's all changed in the last several years, as tariffs have re-entered the conversation as an effective tool to protect American businesses. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend, what it means for small businesses, and where things go from here. Shownotes Jobs Report Revisions, Explained [Gustonomics Podcast] Recession? What Recession? [Gustonomics Podcast] Harris and Trump Embrace Tariffs, Though Their Approaches Differ [NYT]

    Food and Energy Don't Count (for Core CPI)

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2024 25:04


    Two of the most critical categories of goods for consumers—food and energy—aren't considered for one of the most critical measures of inflation, Core CPI. Why is that? Caleb asks the questions, Liz has the answers. Shownotes Consumer prices up 2.9 percent from July 2023 to July 2024 [BLS] Consumer Price Index News Release [BLS] Real Earnings Summary [BLS] Real Earnings News Release [BLS] Consumer Price Index [BLS]

    The ‘Dad Bod' Jobs Report, Pricey Homeowners Insurance

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 14, 2024 22:56


    Caleb and Liz discuss the most recent jobs report that shows a little softness, as well as the increasing cost of homeowners insurance and how that will ripple through the economy. Shownotes Employment Situation Summary [BLS] Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [BLS] US home insurers suffer worst loss this century [FT, sub required] Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [NOAA]

    Q2 GDP Overachieves

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2024 18:46


    Positive economic signals continue to surprise observers. Caleb and Liz discuss the factors that pushed second quarter GDP to exceed expectations and what that means for small businesses. Shownotes Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) [BEA] Personal Income and Outlays, June 2024 [BEA]

    401(k) Mandates, Coming to a Business Near You

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2024 24:08


    It's an unfortunate reality that many Americans have insufficient savings in their retirement accounts, if they have access to one at all. In an effort to give Americans a better chance to save, many states have turned to state-sponsored retirement plans. Many of these plans either require businesses with as few as a single employee to either offer a retirement plan, like a 401(k), or enroll that employee into the state's plan. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend.

    Gustonomics 101: What Is the Sahm Rule?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2024 18:32


    Perhaps the best indicator of a recession is known as the Sahm Rule. But it's little known outside the economics world. So what is it and how can regular everyday businesses make use of this esoteric economic indicator? Caleb and Liz talk it out. Shownotes Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index [FRED] The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate [Chicago Fed] Full Employment [Econ Focus/Richmond Fed] Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [FRED] The Sahm rule: step by step [Stay-at-Home Macro]

    Good Economy, Bad Vibes

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2024 18:58


    The economy has been incredibly resilient in the wake of the pandemic, strong even. Yet survey after survey continues to show that many people don't share that perspective. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss this phenomenon, the contradictions within it, and how we can separate reality from all the noise. Shownotes Anger about the economy is everywhere [Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)]

    Jobs Report Revisions, Explained

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2024 21:21


    Revisions to economic data are crucial so users of that data have the most accurate and current information possible. Still, recent revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics's monthly job report have been larger than some observers would like. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend and how we can think about them in the broader business climate. Shownotes The Employment Situation [BLS]

    The Sky Still Isn't Falling

    Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2024 19:31


    The economy continues to defy expectations, remaining strong in many fundamental areas despite many warnings of tough times ahead. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss the latest jobs report, inflation, interest rates, and the other factors that are keeping the economy in fine shape. Shownotes The Employment Situation [BLS]

    Baby Boomers Were Job Hoppers, Too

    Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2024 22:47


    There's a widespread belief that Millennials are fickle job-hoppers. And while that may be true, particularly early in their careers, data shows that they've been about as likely to change jobs as Baby Boomers were at the same age. Caleb and Liz discuss the trends, possible explanations, and what employers should think about when it comes to hiring and employee retention. Shownotes National Longitudinal Surveys [BLS] Boomers data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/nlsoy.nr0.htm  Millennials data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/nlsyth.nr0.htm  Job losers as % of total unemployed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS13023622 

    Let the Good Entrepreneurship Times Roll

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2024 18:18


    Gusto's fourth annual New Business Formation report found that the entrepreneurship surge that began during the COVID-19 pandemic continued in 2023. Caleb and Liz discuss some of the report's key findings, including the impact of artificial intelligence and remote/hybrid work. Shownotes 2024 New Business Formation Report [Gusto]

    Putting Housing in Order with Orphe Divounguy of Zillow

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 10, 2024 36:10


    Housing is one of the hottest topics in economics right now, and it's no wonder. It reaches all corners of the country, and countless small businesses are impacted by its effects. In this episode, Liz welcomes one the foremost minds on the subject: Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow. Shownotes Orphe Divounguy [Zillow] Orphe Divounguy [LinkedIn] Everyday Economics [Apple Podcasts]

    Workers Want Some Distance From Work

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2024 16:56


    A recent analysis of Gusto data by researchers from Stanford University, ITAM, the Hoover Institution and the Gustonomics team found that Americans are living farther away from their employers. Caleb and Liz discuss the findings, what they indicate, and the current state of the remote/hybrid work evolution in America.   Shownotes Americans Now Live Farther From Their Employers [Gusto Blog] Americans Now Live Farther from Their Employers [Gusto, Stanford, ITAM, Hoover Institution]  

    The Wait and See Economy

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2024 13:38


    New reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics—JOLTS and The Employment Situation—show that the economy is….fine. Not bad, but also not great. Employers and workers are both biding their time, an economic phenomenon that Liz has coined as The Great Wait. Shownotes JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JANUARY 2024 [BLS] THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2024 [BLS]

    The Economics of Tying the Knot (or Not)

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 28, 2024 10:20


    There's been a lot of discussion around marriage in economic circles lately, so Liz and Caleb take up the topic in this episode, putting into perspective for small business owners and entrepreneurs.

    Gustonomics 101: What Is JOLTS?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2024 5:28


    Like all fields, economics has a language all its own, and more than its fair share of acronyms. In this bonus episode, Liz explains one of those acronyms--JOLTS--that was in the news lately, what you should know about it, and how it's relevant to business owners.

    Think Twice Before Taking That Fancy AI Job

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 14, 2024 17:26


    Interest and investment in generative AI are booming, and many people are eager to find a job in this new darling of the tech sector. But not so fast, says Liz. She and Caleb discuss a new paper that should give anyone pursuing a career in an emerging technology pause about its long-term impact. Shownotes Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation [NBER]

    Wage Info in Job Postings Ain't Great

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 31, 2024 18:47


    Pay transparency has emerged in small pockets across the country, but it's far from the norm, and when it does show up, it's not always easy to interpret. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss the quality of wage information in job postings, why it leaves a lot to be desired, and how both employers and job seekers can make the best of it.   Shownotes Pay Transparency Is Anything But Clear [Gustonomics Podcast] Online Job Posts Contain Very Little Wage Information [The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis]

    Startup Economics with Alex Wilhelm of TechCrunch

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2024 28:46


    The Gustonomics Podcast kicks off 2024 with its first guest—Alex Wilhelm, the Editor-in-Chief of TechCrunch+ and the co-host of the Equity podcast. Alex and Liz discuss interest rates and their impact on startup financing, why the businesses being started now are so exciting, and what economic policies they would prioritize if they were in charge. Shownotes There was a lot of startup and econ jargon in this episode that didn't always get fully explained, so here are some useful links: Runway BPS ("bips") Soft landing How Low Interest Rates Raise Stock Prices Burn rate Risk-on assets TAM

    Ebenezer Scrooge and Milton Friedman walk into a bar…

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2023 9:17


    In the spirit of the season, Liz Wilke looks at an infamous economic paper—The Deadweight Loss of Christmas—that validates all the humbug feelings out there.

    Bad Credit? No Problem! (For Now)

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2023 11:14


    Recent headlines have called attention to the rapid rise in credit delinquency rates, which some commentators have suggested is a sign that a credit bubble has popped. Liz explains why all that doomsday talk is overblown. Shownotes Credit Card Delinquencies Are Rising. It Isn't a Problem for Banks—Yet. [Barron's] Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks [FRED] Credit Card Delinquencies Continue to Rise—Who Is Missing Payments? [NY FED] The October 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices [FRB]

    Does Consumer Confidence Matter?

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2023 9:03


    If confidence and sentiment were candy and consumer spending, wouldn't it be a Merry Christmas? Unfortunately, using consumer feelings to predict consumer behavior has long vexed economists everywhere. Liz Wilke explains how to think about a long cherished holiday tradition—consumer confidence.

    Small Business and Big Business: Best Frenemies Forever

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2023 11:16


    Talk to any small business owner and they'll likely have choice words about their big business rivals. They suck up all the talent, they have all the influence, they make all the money, etc. Less talked about is how big businesses help create fertile ecosystems for entrepreneurship. In fact, they may be essential for starting the next generation of successful big businesses. Liz Wilke explains.

    The US Workforce Is Going Gray, and That's OK

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2023 13:02


    The US workforce is getting a little long in the tooth, but there's a lot that we can like about that. Liz explains what an aging workforce means for businesses and the broader economy. Show notes Why labor shortages aren't going anywhere [Marketplace]   Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey [Bureau of Labor Statistics] More than 1 in 10 people in Japan are aged 80 or over. Here's how its ageing population is reshaping the country [World Economic Forum]   ‘Massive shift': Older people will exceed a quarter of G7′s workforce by 2031, report says [CNBC] 2020 GLOBAL EMPLOYER SURVEY OF OECD COUNTRIES [AARP] Meet the next generation of entrepreneurs. They're all over 65. [MIT]

    The Steady Fed

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2023 6:58


    The Federal Reserve declined to raise its benchmark interest rate in its most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Liz Wilke breaks it all down.

    Economic Growth Continues to Pleasantly Surprise

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2023 8:35


    The economy's performance between July and September shocked observers. Liz breaks down the latest GDP numbers, and what to expect for future growth.

    On the Downside - Economic Risks and the Likelihood of a Recession

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 25, 2023 7:47


    Economists don't like to talk with certainty about the future of the economy. Instead, they talk about probabilities. Liz breaks down the risks to the economy and why it means that a downturn is currently more probable than continued growth, even if neither is as likely as a stable outlook. Show notes A Brief History Of U.S. Government Shutdowns and Why Other Countries Do Not Have Them [PGPF]

    The Jobs Report Isn't What It Seems

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2023 8:48


    The economy added twice the expected number of jobs in September - 336,000. Liz breaks down the jobs report, explains why the top-line number is becoming less useful, and why not everyone is feeling “good job market” vibes.

    Loan and Behold: Student Debt Repayments Are Back

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2023 10:08


    About 43.5 million Americans resumed payments on $1.8 trillion dollars of student debt on October 1st. There's widespread concern about potential economic fallout. Liz breaks it down to describe what borrowers, businesses, and economists can expect. Show notes Income-Based Repayment Program [FSA] Employer-Sponsored Student Loan Assistance [US Chamber]

    Bonus Explainer - How Low Interest Rates Raise Stock Prices

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2023 3:39


    Liz explains the connection between interest rates and stock prices. This is a companion to “The Stock Market is Not the Economy”

    The Stock Market is Not the Economy

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2023 11:21


    When the economy is doing well, shouldn't the stock market be too? Not necessarily. Liz breaks down why the stock market and the economy don't always go together, and what you should pay attention to if you want to understand what's ahead for you.   Show notes The equity market and GDP: Less linked than you might think

    GDP: The Mother of All Economic Metrics

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2023 9:26


    Gross domestic product, aka GDP, is the best known economic indicator out there. It gets thrown around by news reporters, politicians and commentators, all the time, and without much context. So what is it really? And is it really that great at telling us anything about the economy. Liz breaks it down.

    What Are U(nions) Telling Us?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2023 13:11


    Labor unions are having a moment. Or several actually. But in the grand scheme of things, the labor activism of the last couple of years isn't necessarily a sign that unions are making a comeback. In this week's episode, Liz puts the recent strikes in context, and explains how to think about them.

    The Fed's Next Big Meeting

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2023 11:34


    The Federal Reserve's next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is coming up and Liz Wilke is here to explain it to you.

    The Price of Everything | Inflation and the Consumer Price Index

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2023 10:13


    Inflation has been on everyone's mind for the last couple of years. In this episode, Liz tackles the hottest topic in economics, how it makes us feel, and why we should care about it for more than its impact on our wallets. Show notes Inflation calculators: Barron's Truflation Financial Times

    Pay Transparency Is Anything But Clear

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2023 13:27


    Eight states and six metro areas have enacted pay transparency laws in the last few years. The benefits of these policies to workers are well known and much celebrated, but the drawbacks less so. Liz explains both sides and what your position on the debate might say about you.   Show notes Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency [HBS] Pay Transparency and the Gender Gap [AEA]

    Recession? What Recession?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2023 6:34


    Everyone worries about recessions. Whether one is coming, or is already happening, or if it's over. But can we really know if one is happening? If so, how? And what about all the experts that try to predict them? Do they really know more than us? Liz Wilke walks you through it.   Show notes Current economic conditions by state [Gusto]

    What Is the Fed, Anyway?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2023 10:44


    The Federal Reserve sure is in the news a lot. But what is it exactly? What does it do and why? How does it affect regular people and businesses? Gusto's Lead Economist, Liz Wilke, explains.

    Why the US Credit Rating Downgrade Matters (and Why It Doesn't)

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 9, 2023 10:57


    The ratings agency Fitch downgraded the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+ setting off a deluge of commentary. Is America destined for financial ruin? Is it really “arbitrary” as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggests? Liz cuts through the noise to explain why you should care, but also why you can relax.

    Why You Should Care About Commercial Real Estate Loans

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2023 9:09


    How are commercial real estate (CRE) loans, and this year's bank crisis related? And why should small businesses care? Gusto's Lead Economist Liz Wilke explains in this inaugural edition of The Gustonomics Podcast.   Show Notes Is Your Bank Safe? Here's How To Find And Assess Your Bank's Balance Sheet [Next City]

    The Gustonomics Podcast: Economics for Main Street, Not Wall Street.

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2023 1:06


    Join Gusto's Lead Economist, Liz Wilke, as she charts the economic landscape for busy owners of 21st-century businesses. In each 10-minute episode, Liz discusses economic concepts and trends for entrepreneurs who want to make smarter business decisions in a changing world. 

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