The Gustonomics Podcast

In this final episode before an indefinite hiatus, Liz and Caleb revisit some of the topics from past episodes.

Tax credits are a popular tool of policymakers to influence the behavior of people and businesses. But they don't come without tradeoffs or cumbersome rules to follow. Caleb and Liz discuss. Shownotes Are Today's Tax Credits the Best Way to Get Americans to Buy E.V.s? [NYT]

In the midst of a surge of antitrust lawsuits from the last several years, Caleb and Liz break down monopolies, anti-competitive behavior, and what it means for small businesses. Shownotes Google, Visa, JetBlue: A Guide to a New Era of U.S. Antitrust Cases [NYT] ‘Google Is a Monopolist,' Judge Rules in Landmark Antitrust Case [NYT] After Google Antitrust Ruling, Here's Where Other Big Tech Cases Stand [NYT] U.S. Prepares to Challenge Google's Online Ad Dominance [NYT]

Who or what caused the jump in inflation from the past few years? There is no shortage of alleged culprits, and one popular theory is that it's been driven by exploitative prices at the grocery store (aka, price gouging). Caleb and Liz discuss the role of price gouging, and how much blame (or not) it deserves. Shownotes Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022—A Pattern Seen in Past Economic Recoveries [KC Fed] Tight Labor Markets Have Been a Key Contributor to High Food Inflation [KC Fed] Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation? [SF Fed] Are greedy companies to blame for grocery inflation? We looked at the data [NPR] What is ‘price gouging' and why is VP Harris proposing to ban it? [AP] Harris Plans to Ban Grocery ‘Price Gouging.' What Does the Evidence Say? [NYT]

For decades, free trade had been touted by business leaders, economists, and policy makers as the best way for countries to exchange goods and services. But that's all changed in the last several years, as tariffs have re-entered the conversation as an effective tool to protect American businesses. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend, what it means for small businesses, and where things go from here. Shownotes Jobs Report Revisions, Explained [Gustonomics Podcast] Recession? What Recession? [Gustonomics Podcast] Harris and Trump Embrace Tariffs, Though Their Approaches Differ [NYT]

Two of the most critical categories of goods for consumers—food and energy—aren't considered for one of the most critical measures of inflation, Core CPI. Why is that? Caleb asks the questions, Liz has the answers. Shownotes Consumer prices up 2.9 percent from July 2023 to July 2024 [BLS] Consumer Price Index News Release [BLS] Real Earnings Summary [BLS] Real Earnings News Release [BLS] Consumer Price Index [BLS]

Caleb and Liz discuss the most recent jobs report that shows a little softness, as well as the increasing cost of homeowners insurance and how that will ripple through the economy. Shownotes Employment Situation Summary [BLS] Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [BLS] US home insurers suffer worst loss this century [FT, sub required] Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [NOAA]

Positive economic signals continue to surprise observers. Caleb and Liz discuss the factors that pushed second quarter GDP to exceed expectations and what that means for small businesses. Shownotes Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) [BEA] Personal Income and Outlays, June 2024 [BEA]

It's an unfortunate reality that many Americans have insufficient savings in their retirement accounts, if they have access to one at all. In an effort to give Americans a better chance to save, many states have turned to state-sponsored retirement plans. Many of these plans either require businesses with as few as a single employee to either offer a retirement plan, like a 401(k), or enroll that employee into the state's plan. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend.

Perhaps the best indicator of a recession is known as the Sahm Rule. But it's little known outside the economics world. So what is it and how can regular everyday businesses make use of this esoteric economic indicator? Caleb and Liz talk it out. Shownotes Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index [FRED] The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate [Chicago Fed] Full Employment [Econ Focus/Richmond Fed] Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [FRED] The Sahm rule: step by step [Stay-at-Home Macro]

The economy has been incredibly resilient in the wake of the pandemic, strong even. Yet survey after survey continues to show that many people don't share that perspective. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss this phenomenon, the contradictions within it, and how we can separate reality from all the noise. Shownotes Anger about the economy is everywhere [Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)]

Revisions to economic data are crucial so users of that data have the most accurate and current information possible. Still, recent revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics's monthly job report have been larger than some observers would like. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend and how we can think about them in the broader business climate. Shownotes The Employment Situation [BLS]

The economy continues to defy expectations, remaining strong in many fundamental areas despite many warnings of tough times ahead. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss the latest jobs report, inflation, interest rates, and the other factors that are keeping the economy in fine shape. Shownotes The Employment Situation [BLS]

There's a widespread belief that Millennials are fickle job-hoppers. And while that may be true, particularly early in their careers, data shows that they've been about as likely to change jobs as Baby Boomers were at the same age. Caleb and Liz discuss the trends, possible explanations, and what employers should think about when it comes to hiring and employee retention. Shownotes National Longitudinal Surveys [BLS] Boomers data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/nlsoy.nr0.htm  Millennials data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/nlsyth.nr0.htm  Job losers as % of total unemployed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS13023622 

Gusto's fourth annual New Business Formation report found that the entrepreneurship surge that began during the COVID-19 pandemic continued in 2023. Caleb and Liz discuss some of the report's key findings, including the impact of artificial intelligence and remote/hybrid work. Shownotes 2024 New Business Formation Report [Gusto]

Housing is one of the hottest topics in economics right now, and it's no wonder. It reaches all corners of the country, and countless small businesses are impacted by its effects. In this episode, Liz welcomes one the foremost minds on the subject: Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow. Shownotes Orphe Divounguy [Zillow] Orphe Divounguy [LinkedIn] Everyday Economics [Apple Podcasts]

A recent analysis of Gusto data by researchers from Stanford University, ITAM, the Hoover Institution and the Gustonomics team found that Americans are living farther away from their employers. Caleb and Liz discuss the findings, what they indicate, and the current state of the remote/hybrid work evolution in America.   Shownotes Americans Now Live Farther From Their Employers [Gusto Blog] Americans Now Live Farther from Their Employers [Gusto, Stanford, ITAM, Hoover Institution]  

New reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics—JOLTS and The Employment Situation—show that the economy is….fine. Not bad, but also not great. Employers and workers are both biding their time, an economic phenomenon that Liz has coined as The Great Wait. Shownotes JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JANUARY 2024 [BLS] THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2024 [BLS]

There's been a lot of discussion around marriage in economic circles lately, so Liz and Caleb take up the topic in this episode, putting into perspective for small business owners and entrepreneurs.

Like all fields, economics has a language all its own, and more than its fair share of acronyms. In this bonus episode, Liz explains one of those acronyms--JOLTS--that was in the news lately, what you should know about it, and how it's relevant to business owners.

Interest and investment in generative AI are booming, and many people are eager to find a job in this new darling of the tech sector. But not so fast, says Liz. She and Caleb discuss a new paper that should give anyone pursuing a career in an emerging technology pause about its long-term impact. Shownotes Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation [NBER]

Pay transparency has emerged in small pockets across the country, but it's far from the norm, and when it does show up, it's not always easy to interpret. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss the quality of wage information in job postings, why it leaves a lot to be desired, and how both employers and job seekers can make the best of it.   Shownotes Pay Transparency Is Anything But Clear [Gustonomics Podcast] Online Job Posts Contain Very Little Wage Information [The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis]

The Gustonomics Podcast kicks off 2024 with its first guest—Alex Wilhelm, the Editor-in-Chief of TechCrunch+ and the co-host of the Equity podcast. Alex and Liz discuss interest rates and their impact on startup financing, why the businesses being started now are so exciting, and what economic policies they would prioritize if they were in charge. Shownotes There was a lot of startup and econ jargon in this episode that didn't always get fully explained, so here are some useful links: Runway BPS ("bips") Soft landing How Low Interest Rates Raise Stock Prices Burn rate Risk-on assets TAM

In the spirit of the season, Liz Wilke looks at an infamous economic paper—The Deadweight Loss of Christmas—that validates all the humbug feelings out there.

Recent headlines have called attention to the rapid rise in credit delinquency rates, which some commentators have suggested is a sign that a credit bubble has popped. Liz explains why all that doomsday talk is overblown. Shownotes Credit Card Delinquencies Are Rising. It Isn't a Problem for Banks—Yet. [Barron's] Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks [FRED] Credit Card Delinquencies Continue to Rise—Who Is Missing Payments? [NY FED] The October 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices [FRB]

If confidence and sentiment were candy and consumer spending, wouldn't it be a Merry Christmas? Unfortunately, using consumer feelings to predict consumer behavior has long vexed economists everywhere. Liz Wilke explains how to think about a long cherished holiday tradition—consumer confidence.

Talk to any small business owner and they'll likely have choice words about their big business rivals. They suck up all the talent, they have all the influence, they make all the money, etc. Less talked about is how big businesses help create fertile ecosystems for entrepreneurship. In fact, they may be essential for starting the next generation of successful big businesses. Liz Wilke explains.

The US workforce is getting a little long in the tooth, but there's a lot that we can like about that. Liz explains what an aging workforce means for businesses and the broader economy. Show notes Why labor shortages aren't going anywhere [Marketplace]   Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey [Bureau of Labor Statistics] More than 1 in 10 people in Japan are aged 80 or over. Here's how its ageing population is reshaping the country [World Economic Forum]   ‘Massive shift': Older people will exceed a quarter of G7′s workforce by 2031, report says [CNBC] 2020 GLOBAL EMPLOYER SURVEY OF OECD COUNTRIES [AARP] Meet the next generation of entrepreneurs. They're all over 65. [MIT]

The Federal Reserve declined to raise its benchmark interest rate in its most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Liz Wilke breaks it all down.

The economy's performance between July and September shocked observers. Liz breaks down the latest GDP numbers, and what to expect for future growth.

Economists don't like to talk with certainty about the future of the economy. Instead, they talk about probabilities. Liz breaks down the risks to the economy and why it means that a downturn is currently more probable than continued growth, even if neither is as likely as a stable outlook. Show notes A Brief History Of U.S. Government Shutdowns and Why Other Countries Do Not Have Them [PGPF]

The economy added twice the expected number of jobs in September - 336,000. Liz breaks down the jobs report, explains why the top-line number is becoming less useful, and why not everyone is feeling “good job market” vibes.

About 43.5 million Americans resumed payments on $1.8 trillion dollars of student debt on October 1st. There's widespread concern about potential economic fallout. Liz breaks it down to describe what borrowers, businesses, and economists can expect. Show notes Income-Based Repayment Program [FSA] Employer-Sponsored Student Loan Assistance [US Chamber]

Liz explains the connection between interest rates and stock prices. This is a companion to “The Stock Market is Not the Economy”

When the economy is doing well, shouldn't the stock market be too? Not necessarily. Liz breaks down why the stock market and the economy don't always go together, and what you should pay attention to if you want to understand what's ahead for you.   Show notes The equity market and GDP: Less linked than you might think

Gross domestic product, aka GDP, is the best known economic indicator out there. It gets thrown around by news reporters, politicians and commentators, all the time, and without much context. So what is it really? And is it really that great at telling us anything about the economy. Liz breaks it down.

Labor unions are having a moment. Or several actually. But in the grand scheme of things, the labor activism of the last couple of years isn't necessarily a sign that unions are making a comeback. In this week's episode, Liz puts the recent strikes in context, and explains how to think about them.

The Federal Reserve's next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is coming up and Liz Wilke is here to explain it to you.

Inflation has been on everyone's mind for the last couple of years. In this episode, Liz tackles the hottest topic in economics, how it makes us feel, and why we should care about it for more than its impact on our wallets. Show notes Inflation calculators: Barron's Truflation Financial Times

Eight states and six metro areas have enacted pay transparency laws in the last few years. The benefits of these policies to workers are well known and much celebrated, but the drawbacks less so. Liz explains both sides and what your position on the debate might say about you.   Show notes Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency [HBS] Pay Transparency and the Gender Gap [AEA]

Everyone worries about recessions. Whether one is coming, or is already happening, or if it's over. But can we really know if one is happening? If so, how? And what about all the experts that try to predict them? Do they really know more than us? Liz Wilke walks you through it.   Show notes Current economic conditions by state [Gusto]

The Federal Reserve sure is in the news a lot. But what is it exactly? What does it do and why? How does it affect regular people and businesses? Gusto's Lead Economist, Liz Wilke, explains.

The ratings agency Fitch downgraded the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+ setting off a deluge of commentary. Is America destined for financial ruin? Is it really “arbitrary” as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggests? Liz cuts through the noise to explain why you should care, but also why you can relax.

How are commercial real estate (CRE) loans, and this year's bank crisis related? And why should small businesses care? Gusto's Lead Economist Liz Wilke explains in this inaugural edition of The Gustonomics Podcast.   Show Notes Is Your Bank Safe? Here's How To Find And Assess Your Bank's Balance Sheet [Next City]

Join Gusto's Lead Economist, Liz Wilke, as she charts the economic landscape for busy owners of 21st-century businesses. In each 10-minute episode, Liz discusses economic concepts and trends for entrepreneurs who want to make smarter business decisions in a changing world.