Podcasts about Federal Open Market Committee

Later this week, we'll learn more about how the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates when the Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes of its most recent meeting. The document will give us clues about what's ahead and where FOMC members' priorities lie. Also on this morning's show: the IRS will now have a CEO, renewable energy becomes the world's largest electricity source, and OPEC producers decide to expand output.

Later this week, we'll learn more about how the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates when the Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes of its most recent meeting. The document will give us clues about what's ahead and where FOMC members' priorities lie. Also on this morning's show: the IRS will now have a CEO, renewable energy becomes the world's largest electricity source, and OPEC producers decide to expand output.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran recounts his first experience in a Federal Open Market Committee meeting and explains the factors that have lowered the neutral rate as he calls for rapid interest-rate cuts. Miran says he would “rather act proactively” to lower rates, than “wait for some giant catastrophe to occur.” He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie HordernSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Annual Kansas Income Tax Institute Lowering the Federal Funds Rate Causes of Pinkeye in Cattle   00:01:05 – Annual Kansas Income Tax Institute: Roger McEowen, K-State and Washburn law professor, with Rich Llewelyn, K-State Extension assistant, start today's show as they preview the Kansas Income Tax Institute. Roger mentions the major topics that will be covered. Kansas Income Tax Institute   00:12:05 – Lowering the Federal Funds Rate: Continuing the show is Brady Brewer and Brian Briggeman from K-State as they discuss the recent decision from the Federal Open Market Committee and what it means for inflation, unemployment and agriculture.    00:23:05 – Causes of Pinkeye in Cattle: The Beef Cattle Insitute's Brad White, Todd Gunderson, Bob Larson and Phillip Lancaster end the show with part of their Cattle Chat podcast as they explain the causes of pinkeye.  BCI Cattle Chat Podcast Bovine Science with BCI Podcast Email BCI at bci@ksu.edu     Send comments, questions or requests for copies of past programs to ksrenews@ksu.edu.   Agriculture Today is a daily program featuring Kansas State University agricultural specialists and other experts examining ag issues facing Kansas and the nation. It is hosted by Shelby Varner and distributed to radio stations throughout Kansas and as a daily podcast.   K‑State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well‑being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K‑State campus in Manhattan

September 22, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 35What happens when a tech giant can borrow money at lower rates than the U.S. government? This fascinating development signals a potential paradigm shift in how markets view sovereign debt risk—and it's just one of many remarkable insights from the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut decision.The Fed's quarter-point reduction marks the first cut since December, but market reactions have been surprisingly complex. While short-term variable rates tied to indices like the prime rate typically follow Fed movements—benefiting credit card holders and those with floating mortgages—we're seeing the 10-year Treasury yield unexpectedly rebound from 4% to 4.14%. This movement reflects underlying concerns about economic strength and inflation persistence that could temper the pace of future rate cuts.Looking deeper at the Federal Open Market Committee vote patterns reveals greater consensus than anticipated for the moderate approach. Even officials expected to advocate for more aggressive cuts aligned with Chairman Powell's measured stance. Meanwhile, the Fed's "dot plot" projections indicate another potential quarter to half-point cut before year-end, though with notably less consensus than markets had hoped for—creating uncertainty that's now reflected in equity valuations.Beyond interest rates, we're witnessing fascinating shifts across asset classes. Gold has surged to new highs while cryptocurrencies have declined significantly, challenging narratives about modern inflation hedges. Perhaps most remarkably, Microsoft recently issued 10-year bonds at 3.625%—significantly below comparable Treasury yields—suggesting investors may be growing more concerned about U.S. government debt levels than well-rated corporate debt.For your portfolio strategy, these developments demand thoughtful reassessment as we approach the end of 2025's third quarter. With substantial cash still on sidelines and sentiment showing a mix of bullishness and caution, positioning correctly for what comes next requires both courage and confidence. As James Clear wisely notes, "The confidence that you can bounce back from failure is earned by working through previous failures."** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure **To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-formFollow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern

Learn how the Fed rate cut impacts loans and savings, then find out when to freeze your credit and how to do it fast. What does a Federal Reserve rate cut mean for your wallet? Should you freeze your credit if an internet provider runs a soft pull? Hosts Sean Pyles and Elizabeth Ayoola kick off this episode with senior news writer Anna Helhoski to unpack the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) new federal funds rate target range and how it filters through to credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, personal loans, and high-yield savings accounts and CDs. They explain why Fed chair Jerome Powell framed this as a “risk-management cut,” what dissent within the committee signals, how a cooling labor market and sticky inflation shape the outlook for additional cuts, and what stock market moves might follow. Plus, what all of that means for your near-term borrowing and saving decisions. Then, NerdWallet's Amanda Barroso joins Sean and Elizabeth for a practical lesson in credit freeze 101. They start with when and why to freeze your credit, with tips on freezing at all three bureaus, using apps for fast thawing, and setting time-boxed thaws before major credit applications. They also discuss soft vs. hard inquiries, fraud alerts vs. credit freezes vs. credit locks, and common pitfalls (forgetting one bureau, thawing too late at the car dealership, weak passwords) to help you understand when to keep your reports “frozen like Elsa,” but still move fast when you need new credit. Fed Trims Rate: What Does It Mean For You? https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/fed-rate-cut-sept-2025  How to Unfreeze Your Credit With Equifax, Experian and TransUnion https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/how-to-unfreeze-your-credit  Want us to review your budget? Fill out this form — completely anonymously if you want — and we might feature your budget in a future segment! https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScK53yAufsc4v5UpghhVfxtk2MoyooHzlSIRBnRxUPl3hKBig/viewform?usp=header In their conversation, the Nerds discuss: credit card APR, mortgage refinance rates, savings account interest rates, certificate of deposit rates, stock market after Fed decision, inflation forecast, unemployment trends, federal funds rate explained, Trump pressure on Fed, dissent at FOMC, labor market cooling, tariffs and inflation, soft credit check vs hard credit check, how to unfreeze credit, thaw credit timeline, fraud alert vs credit freeze, credit lock vs credit freeze, identity theft protection steps, FTC identity theft reports, data breach protection, certified mail credit freeze, password manager for credit bureaus, how to freeze credit by phone, and credit freeze pitfalls. To send the Nerds your money questions, call or text the Nerd hotline at 901-730-6373 or email podcast@nerdwallet.com. Like what you hear? Please leave us a review and tell a friend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ahead of today's FOMC decision, S&P futures are pointing to a flat open. Asian equities ended Wednesday trading mixed, with the Hang Seng surging on strength in internet and technology stocks, while European equity markets are mostly firmer in early trades. Attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut fully priced in. Market reactions may hinge on Fed commentary and the updated dot plot, which will shape expectations for approximately 150 basis points of easing over the next year.Companies Mentioned: Tiktok, Apple

Singapore shares dipped today despite most Asian markets trading in the green. The Straits Times Index was down 0.22% at 4,328.85 points at 2.39pm Singapore time, with a value turnover of S$826.72M seen in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch, we have SIA Group, after the airline group yesterday reported a 5.4 per cent increase in passenger traffic for August compared with the previous year. This increase outpaced the 2.7 per cent expansion in passenger capacity across Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Scoot. Elsewhere, from what to watch out of flagged talks between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, to the confirmation of Trump’s pick Stephen Miran into the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee – more international headlines remained in focus. Also on deck, how Jack Ma is reportedly back at work to ‘Make Alibaba Great Again’! On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with James Cheo, Chief Investment Officer, Southeast Asia and India at HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Federal Reserve watchers feel pretty sure the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent this week. The real question? Whether Jay Powell and co. have more rate cuts planned, or if they're taking it meeting by meeting. Also in this episode: An Atlanta non profit helps refugee women become entrepreneurs and the U.S. TikTok deadline approaches.

Keith discusses the potential takeover of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, highlighting the macroeconomic implications.  Economist, author and publisher of Macro Watch, Richard Duncan, joins the show and explains that central bank independence is crucial to prevent political influence on monetary policy, which could lead to excessive money supply and inflation.  Trump's policies, including tariffs and spending bills, are inflationary, necessitating lower interest rates.  Resources: Subscribe to Macro Watch at RichardDuncanEconomics.com and use promo code GRE for a 50% discount. Gain access to over 100 hours of macroeconomic video archives and new biweekly insights into the global economy. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/571 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the President has a plan to completely take over the Fed, a body that historically stays independent of outside influence. Learn the fascinating architecture of the planned fed seizure and how it's expected to unleash a wealth Bonanza and $1 crash with a brilliant macroeconomist today, it'll shape inflation in interest rates in the future world that you'll live in today. On get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:33   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:21   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Speaker 1  1:31   Welcome to GRE from Fairfax, Virginia to Fairfield, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. The Federal Open Market Committee is the most powerful financial institution, not only in the nation, but in the entire world, and when an outside force wants to wrestle it and take it down. The change that it could unleash is almost incredible. It's unprecedented. The President wants full control. Once he has it, he could then slash interest rates, order unlimited money creation, and even peg government bond yields wherever he wishes, and this could drive wealth to extraordinary new highs, but this also carries enormous risks for the dollar and inflation and overall financial stability. And I mean, come on now, whether you like him or not, is Trump more enamored of power than Emperor Palpatine in Star Wars or what this is fascinating. Today's guest is going to describe the architecture of the takeover the grand plan. Our guest is a proven expert on seeing what will happen next in macroeconomics. He's rather pioneering in AI as well. But today, this all has so much to do with the future of inflation and interest rates. We're going to get into the details of how, step by step, Trump plans to infiltrate and make a Fed takeover.    Keith Weinhold  3:23   I'd like to welcome back one of the more recurrent guests in GRE history, because he's one of the world's most prominent macroeconomists, and he was this show's first ever guest back in 2014 he's worked with the World Bank and as a consultant to the IMF. He's contributed a lot on CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg Television. He's a prolific author. His books have been taught at Harvard and Columbia, and more recently, he's been a guest speaker at a White House Ways and Means Committee policy dinner in DC. So people at the highest levels lean on his macroeconomic expertise. Hey, welcome back to GRE joining us from Thailand as usual. It's Richard Duncan   Richard Duncan  4:03   Keith, thank you for that very nice introduction. It's great to see you again.   Keith Weinhold  4:08   Oh, it's so good to have you back. Because you know what, Richard, what caught my attention and why I invited you back to the show earlier than usual is about something that you published on macro watch, and it's titled, Trump's conquest of the Fed will unleash a wealth Bonanza, $1 crash and state directed capitalism. I kind of think of state directed and capitalism as two different things, so there's a few bits to unpack here, and maybe the best way is to start with the importance of the separation of powers. Tell us why the Fed needs to maintain independence from any influence of the president.   Richard Duncan  4:44   Central banks have gained independence over the years because it was realized that if they didn't have independence, then they would do whatever the president or prime minister told them to do to help him get reelected, and that would tend to lead to excessive money supply. Growth and interest rates that were far too low for the economic environment, and that would create an economic boom that would help that President or politician get reelected, but then ultimately in a bust and a systemic financial sector crisis. So it's generally believed that central bank independence is much better for the economy than political control of the central bank.   Speaker 1  5:24   Otherwise we would just fall into a president's short term interests. Every president would want rates essentially at zero, and maybe this wouldn't catch up with people until the next person's in office.   Richard Duncan  5:35   That's right. He sort of wants to be Fed Chair Trump. That's right, president and Fed Chairman Trump on the horizon. It looks like won't be long, Now.   Speaker 1  5:45   that's right. In fact, even on last week's episode, I was talking about how Trump wants inflation, he won't come out and explicitly say that, of course, but when you look at the majority of his policies, they're inflationary. I mean, you've got tariffs, you've got deportations, this reshaping of the Fed that we're talking about the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending in the one big, beautiful Bill act. It is overwhelmingly inflationary.   Richard Duncan  6:12   It is inflationary. And he may want many of those things that you just mentioned, but what he doesn't want is what goes along with high rates of inflation, and that is high interest rates, right? If interest rates go up in line with inflation, as they normally do in a left to market forces, then we would have significantly higher rates of inflation. There would also be significantly higher rates of interest on the 10 year government bond yield, for instance. And that is what he does not want, because that would be extremely harmful for the economy and for asset prices, and that's why taking over the Federal Reserve is so important for him, his policies are going to be inflationary. That would tend to cause market determined interest rates to go higher, and in fact, that would also persuade the Fed that they needed to increase the short term interest rates, the federal funds rate, if we start to see a significant pickup in inflation, then, rather than cutting rates going forward, then they're more likely to start increasing the federal funds rate. And the bond investors are not going to buy 10 year government bonds at a yield of 4% if the inflation rate is 5% they're going to demand something more like a yield of 7% so that's why it's so urgent for the President Trump to take over the Fed. That's what he's in the process of doing. Once he takes over the Fed, then he can demand that they slash the federal funds rate to whatever level he desires. And even if the 10 year bond yield does begin to spike up as inflation starts to rise, then the President can instruct, can command the Fed to launch a new round of quantitative easing and buy up as many 10 year government bonds as necessary, to push up their price and to drive down their yields to very low levels, even if there is high rate of inflation.   Keith Weinhold  7:58   a president's pressure to Lower short term rates, which is what the Fed controls, could increase long term rates like you're saying, it could backfire on Trump because of more inflation expectations in the bond market.   Richard Duncan  8:12   That's right. President Trump is on record as saying he thinks that the federal funds rate is currently 4.33% he said it's 300 basis points too high. Adjusting would be 1.33% if they slash the short term interest rates like that. That would be certain to set off a very strong economic boom in the US, which would also be very certain to create very high rates of inflation, particularly since we have millions of people being deported and a labor shortage at the moment, and the unemployment rate's already very low at just 4.2% so yes, slashing short term interest rates that radically the federal funds rate that radically would be certain to drive up the 10 year government bond yield. That's why President Trump needs to gain control over the Fed so that he can make the Fed launch a new round of quantitative easing. If you create a couple of trillion dollars and start buying a couple of trillion dollars of government bonds, guess what? Their price goes up. And when the price of a bond goes up, the yield on that bond goes down, and that drives down what typically are considered market determined interest rates, but in this case, they would be fed determined interest rates Trump determined interest rates.   Speaker 1  9:28   Inflationary, inflationary, inflationary, and whenever we see massive cuts to the Fed funds rate that typically correlates with a big loss in quality of life, standard of living, and items of big concern. If we look at the last three times that rates have been cut substantially, they have been for the reasons of getting us out of the two thousand.com bubble, then getting us out of the 2000 day global financial crisis, then getting us out of covid in 2020, I mean, massive rate cuts are. Are typically a crisis response   Richard Duncan  10:02   yes, but if we look back, starting in the early 1980s interest rates have have trended down decade after decade right up until the time covid hit. In fact, the inflation rate was below the Fed's 2% inflation target most of the time between 2008 the crisis of 2008 and when covid started, the Fed was more worried about deflation than inflation during those years, and the inflation rate trended down. And so the interest rates tended to trend down as well, and we're at quite low levels. Of course, back in the early 1980s we had double digit inflation and double digit interest rates, but gradually, because of globalization, allowing the United States to buy more and more goods from other countries with ultra low wages, like China and now Vietnam and India and Bangladesh, buying goods from other countries with low wages that drove down the price of goods in the United States, causing goods disinflation, and that drove down the interest rates. That drove down the inflation rate. And because the inflation rate fell, then interest rates could fall also, and that's why the interest rates were trending down for so long, up until the time covid hit, and why they would have trended down again in the absence of this new tariff regime that President Trump has put into place. Now, this is creating a completely different economic environment. President Trump truly is trying to radically restructure the US economy. There is a plan for this. The plan was spelled out in a paper by the man who is now the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. His name is Steven Moran, and the paper was called a user's guide to restructuring the global trading system. It was published in November last year, and it very clearly spelled out almost everything President Trump has done since then in terms of economic policy. It was truly a blueprint for what he has done since then, and this paper spelled out a three step plan with two objectives. Here are the three steps. Step one was to impose very high tariffs on all of the United States trading partners. Step two was then to threaten all of our allies that we would no longer protect them militarily if they dared to retaliate against our high tariffs. And then the third step was to convene a Mar a Lago accord at which these terrified trading partners would agree to a sharp devaluation of the dollar and would also agree to put up their own trade tariffs against China in order to isolate China. And the two objectives of this policy, they were to re industrialize the United States and to stop China's economic growth so that China would be less of a military threat to the United States, which it is currently and increasingly with each passing month. So so far, steps one and two have been carried out very high tariffs on every trading partner, and also threats that if there's any retaliation, that we won't protect you militarily any longer. And also pressure on other countries to put high tariffs against China. The idea is to isolate China between behind a global tariff wall and to stop China's economic growth. So you can see that is what President Trump has been doing. And also in this paper, Stephen Marin also suggested that it would be very helpful if the Fed would cooperate to hold down 10 year government bond yield in this environment, which would naturally tend to push the bond yields higher. So that paper really did spell out what President Trump has done since then.   Keith Weinhold  13:59   This is fascinating about this paper. I didn't know about this previously, so this is all planned from tariffs to a Fed takeover.   Richard Duncan  14:08   That's right, the idea is to re industrialize the United States. That's what President Trump has been saying for years. Make America Great Again. And it's certainly true that America does need to have the industrial capacity to make steel and ships and pharmaceutical products and many other things in his own national self defense. But there's a problem with this strategy since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, and we've talked about this before, so I will do this fast forwarding a bit when the Bretton Woods system broke down up until then it broke down in 1971 before then, trade between countries had to balance. So it wasn't possible for the United States to buy extraordinarily large amounts of goods from low wage countries back then, this thing that's caused the disinflation over the last four decades, trade had to balance because on the Bretton Woods system, if we had a big trade deficit. Deficit, we had to pay for that deficit with gold. US gold, and gold was money. So if we had a big trade deficit and had to pay out all of our gold other countries to finance that deficit, we would run out of gold. Run out of money. The economy would hit a crisis, and that just couldn't continue. We'd stop buying things from other countries. So there was an automatic adjustment mechanism under the Bretton Woods System, or under the classical gold standard itself that prevented trade deficits. But once Bretton Woods broke down in 1971 It didn't take us too long to figure out that it could buy extraordinarily large amounts of things from other countries, and it didn't have to pay with gold anymore. It could just pay with US dollars, or more technically, with Treasury bonds denominated in US dollars. So the US started running massive trade deficits. The deficits went from zero to $800 billion in 2006 and now most recently, the current account deficit was $1.2 trillion last year. So the total US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $17 trillion this has created a global economic boom of unprecedented proportions and pulled hundreds of millions of people around the world out of poverty. China is a superpower now, because of its massive trade surplus with the US, completely transformed China. So the trade surplus countries in Asia all benefited. I've watched that firsthand, since I've spent most of my career living in Asia, but the United States also benefited, because by buying things from low wage countries that drove down the price of goods, that drove down inflation, that made low interest rates possible, that made it easier for the US to finance its big budget deficits at low interest rates, and so with Low interest rates, the government could spend more and stimulate the economy. Also with very low interest rates, stock prices could go higher and home prices could go higher. This created a very big economic boom in the United States as well. Not only did the trade surplus, countries benefit by selling more to the US, but the US itself benefited by this big wealth boom that has resulted from this arrangement. Now the problem with President Trump's plan to restructure the US economy is that he wants to bring this trade deficit back down essentially to zero, ideally, it seems. But if he does that, then that's going to cut off the source of credit that's been blowing this bubble ever larger year after year since the early 1980s and we have such a big global credit bubble that if this source of credit has been making the bubble inflate, the trade deficit, if that were to significantly become significantly lower, then this credit that's been blowing up, the bubble would stop, and the bubble would implode, potentially creating very severe, systemic financial sector crisis around the world on a much, probably a much larger scale than we saw in 2008 and leading to a new Great Depression. One thing to think about is the trade deficit is similar to the current account deficit. So the current account deficit is the mirror image of capital inflows into the United States. Every country's balance of payments has to balance. So last year, the US current account deficit was $1.2 trillion that threw off $1.2 trillion into the global economy benefiting the trade surplus countries. But those countries received dollars, and once they had that 1.2 trillion new dollars last year, they had to invest those dollars back into us, dollar denominated assets of one kind or another, like government bonds or like US stocks, and that's what they did. The current account deficit is the mirror image of capital inflows into the United States. Last year was $1.2 trillion of capital inflows. Now if you eliminate the current account deficit by having very high trade tariffs and bringing trade back into balance, you also eliminate the capital inflows into the United States, and if we have $1.2 trillion less money coming into the United States a year or two from now, that's going to make it much more difficult to finance the government's very large budget deficits. The budget deficits are expected to grow from something like $2 trillion now to $2.5 trillion 10 years from now, and that's assuming a lot of tariff revenue from the tariffs, budget deficit would be much larger still. So we need the capital inflows from these other countries to finance the US budget deficit, the government's budget deficit. If the trade deficit goes away, the capital inflows will go away also, and with less foreign buying of government us, government bonds, then the price of those bonds will fall and the yield on those bonds will go up. In other words, if there are fewer buyers for the bonds, the price of the bonds will go down and the yield on the bonds will go up. In other words, long term interest rates will go up, and that will be very bad for the US Economy   Speaker 2  14:08   the yields on those 10 year notes have to go up in order to attract investors. Mortgage rates and everything else are tied to those yields.   Richard Duncan  19:36   That's right. And cap rates. When people consider investing in tech stocks, they consider they'll buy fewer stocks if the interest rates are higher. So this is why it's so important for President Trump to conquer the Fed, to take over the Fed. That's what he's doing. Technically, he's very close to accomplishing that. Shall we discuss the details?   Speaker 1  20:29   Yes, we should get more into this fed takeover, just what it means for the future of real estate markets and stock markets. With Richard Duncan, more, we come back. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold   Keith Weinhold  20:41   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. 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Text family. 266, 866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family. 266, 866,   Dani-Lynn Robison  22:24   you is freedom family investments co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 1  22:31   Welcome back to get Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking with macroeconomist Richard Duncan about a Fed takeover. I think the President wants to be Fed Chair Trump, Richard. Talk to us more about this, because this is really part of a grand plan.   Richard Duncan  22:57   So the Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy. That means it sets the interest rates on the federal funds rate, the short term interest rates, and it also has the power to create money through quantitative easing or to destroy money through quantitative tightening. So the Fed is in charge of monetary policy. The Fed makes its decisions at its it meets eight times a year, the Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, meets eight times a year, and they take votes. They discuss what's going on in the economy. They make a decision about what they should do about interest rates, and in some cases, decisions about creating or destroying money through quantitative easing or quantitative tightening. They take a vote. The structure of the Federal Reserve System is as follows. There are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, so there are seven fed governors there. The Federal Reserve Board is in based in Washington, DC. In addition to that, there are 12 Federal Reserve banks around the country, like the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, for instance, or the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Each of these Federal Reserve Banks have a president, so there are 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents now at the FOMC meetings where interest rates are decided, all seven fed governors get a vote, but only five Federal Reserve Bank presidents get to vote, and they rotate their votes every year they the following year are different. Five fed presidents get to vote. The Federal Reserve Bank president of New York always gets the vote because New York is such an important financial center, but the other four other presidents keep rotating year after year, and the presidents, 12 presidents, serve five year terms, and they can be reappointed, and their terms expire all at the same time, all on the same day, all of their terms will expire next year on February 28 and they will perhaps be reappointed and perhaps. Be reappointed. So that's the structure, seven Federal Reserve Bank governors and 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. All the governors. All seven get to vote at every FOMC meeting, but only five of the Presidents get to vote. So that's a total of 12. The Governors of the Federal Reserve System are the most important the seven. Those seven include the Chairman, Chairman Powell, and this is why they're the most important. They're important because if four of the seven have the power to fire all of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents, if four fed governors vote together, they can fire all 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. It only takes four. Only takes four. Then those Federal Reserve Bank presidents would have to be replaced, but the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has to approve the replacements. So if President Trump has four fed governors who will do what he tells them to do, then they can fire all the Federal Reserve Bank presidents and only replace them with other people who will do what President Trump tells them to do. Gosh. So what this means is, if the president can get four Federal Reserve Bank governors out of seven, then he has absolute control over monetary policy. He can do anything he wants with interest rates. He can do anything he wants with quantitative easing. So how many does he have now? Well, he has two that he's appointed, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. They voted to cut interest rates at the last FOMC meeting. That was a dissenting vote, because the rest of the voting members voted to hold interest rates steady. Those two have already voted with the President, so they're on Team Trump, and they're going to stay on Team Trump, because both of them would like to become Fed Chairman when Jerome Powell term expires in May next year, very suddenly and very unexpectedly. A month or so ago, another fed Governor resigned. Her name is Adriana Coogler. Her term was not due to expire for another six months, and she'd not given any indication that she was going to resign early, but she did this now gives the President can nominate the Federal Reserve Bank governors. So he is nominated Stephen Moran, the one who wrote the paper the grand plan. Grand plan. He's nominated him to replace Adriana Coogler, yeah, and he's going to vote on him on his appointment, perhaps within very soon, and it only takes 51 senators to vote him in. And since the Republicans control the Senate, he will be approved, it seems very likely that he will be approved, and that will give President Trump the third vote on the FOMC. He will have three out of the seven governors. He only needs one more, and this is where at least the cook comes in. So on the 26th of August, I think President Trump announced that he was firing Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, because she allegedly had made misleading statements on some mortgage applications that have not been proven yet, that they are alleged. So he says that he has fired her. She has said he does not have the right to fire her. The legal cases that the President does have the right to fire a Federal Reserve Bank Governor, but only for cause. And so there's a real question whether this qualifies as being for cause or not, especially since it's only alleged at this point, but assuming that he does get control. So if he does succeed in firing her, he will be able to appoint her replacement, and that will give him four members, four governors out of the seven. And as we just discussed, with four out of seven, he will have complete control over monetary policy, because with four out of seven, that would give him the power to command those four to vote to fire all 12 presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then to appoint new presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks who would vote along with whatever President Trump tells them to vote for. So in that case, with four fed governors, he would have those Four Plus he would have the five presidents that he would appoint from the Federal Reserve Banks voting for him. So five plus four, that is nine, nine out of 12 voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee. He would be guaranteed nine out of 12 votes on the FOMC, and that would give him complete control over monetary policy, and that's what he needs, because his policies are inflationary. They're going to drive up inflation. They're and that's going to push up the 10 year government bond yield, and it would normally make the Fed also increase the federal funds rate, because higher inflation should the Fed in. Increase the interest rates to cool down the higher inflation. But now that's not going to happen, because he is going to take over the FOMC one way or the other. Just by firing Lisa Cook, he's sending a very clear message to all the other fed governors and to the 12 existing Federal Reserve Bank presidents, you do what I tell you or you may be investigated too. You're next, one way or the other, the President is going to get what the President wants, and what he wants is control over monetary policy, and what that means is much lower short term interest rates and probably another very big round of quantitative easing to hold down long term interest rates as well.   Keith Weinhold  30:41   That was an amazing architecture and plan that you laid out for how a President can take over the Federal Open Market Committee. That was amazing to think about that, and what we believe he wants you talked about it is potentially quantitative easing, which is a genteel way of saying dollar printing. Is it lowering the Fed funds rate down to, I think 1% is what he desired, and we're currently at about 4.3%   Richard Duncan  31:08   that's right. He said he'd like to see the federal funds rate 300 basis points lower, which would put 1.3% we could see a series of very sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meetings, so we could see the short term interest rates falling very quickly, but as we discussed a little bit earlier, that would alarm the bond market and investors, because they would realize that much lower interest rates would lead to much higher rates of inflation by overstimulating the economy. And so the 10 year bond yields will move higher for fear of inflation, and that will then force President Trump to command the Fed, to create money through quantitative easing on a potentially trillion dollar scale, and start buying up government bonds to push up their price and drive down their yields, so that the 10 year bond yields and the 30 year bond yields will fall. And since mortgage rates are pegged to the government bond yields mortgage rates will fall, and credit card rates will fall, and bank lending rates will fall, and this will kick off an extraordinary economic boom in the US, and also drive asset prices very much higher and create a wealth Bonanza,   Keith Weinhold  32:15   right? And here, Richard and I are talking interestingly, just two days before the next Fed decision is rendered, therefore, with eminent cuts, we could very well see soaring stock and real estate markets fueled by this cheap credit and this quantitative easing, at least in the shorter term.   Richard Duncan  32:36   But timing is something one must always keep in mind, there is a danger that we could actually see a sell off in the stock market in the near term. If we start seeing the Fed slashing interest rates, then the 10 year bond yields will start moving higher. That would ultimately lead to quantitative easing to drive those yields back down. But when the falling short term interest rates start pushing up interest rates on the 10 year government bond yield because investors expect higher rates of inflation, that could spook the stock market. The stock market's very expensive, so before QE kicks in, there could actually be a period where raising expectations for higher rates of inflation drive the 10 year bond yields higher before the Fed can step in and drive them back down again. We could actually see a sell off in the stock market before we get this wealth boom that will ultimately result when the Fed cuts the short term rates and then quantitative easing also drives down the long term rates. I hope that's not too confusing. There could be a intermediate phase, where bond yields move higher, and that causes the stock market to have a significant stumble. But that wouldn't last long, because then President Trump would command the Fed to do quantitative easing, and as soon as the president says on television that he's going to do quantitative easing, between the moment he says quantitative and the moment he says easing, the stock market is going to rocket higher.   Keith Weinhold  34:05   And here we are at a time where many feel the stock market is overvalued. Mortgage rates have been elevated, but they're actually still a little below their historic norms. The rate of inflation hasn't been down at the Fed's 2% target in years, it's been above them, and we've got signs that the labor market is softening.   Richard Duncan  34:25   That's true. The labor market numbers in the most recent job number were quite disappointing, with the revisions to earlier months significantly lower. But of course, with so many people being deported from the United States now, that's contributing to this lower job growth numbers. If you have fewer people, there are fewer people to hire and add to job creation, so that may have some distorting impact on the low job creation numbers. The economy actually is seems to be relatively strong the the. Latest GDP now forecast that the Atlanta Fed does is suggesting that the economy could grow by three and a half percent this quarter, which is very strong. So the economy is not falling off a cliff by any means. If the scenario plays out, as I've discussed, and ultimately we do get another round of quantitative easing and the Fed cuts short term interest rates very aggressively. That will create a very big economic boom with interest rates very low. That will push up real estate prices, stock prices and gold prices and Bitcoin prices and the price of everything except $1 the dollar will crash because currency values are determined by interest rate differentials. Right now, the 10 year government bond yield is higher than the bond yields in Europe or Japan, and if you suddenly cut the US interest rates by 100 basis points, 200 basis points, 300 basis points, and the bond yields go down very sharply, then it'll be much less attractive for anyone to hold dollars relative to other currencies, and so there will be a big sell off of the dollar. And also, if you create another big round of quantitative easing and create trillions of dollars that way, then the more money you create, the less value the dollar has supply and demand. If you have trillions of extra new dollars, then the value of the dollar loses value. So the dollar is likely to take a significant tumble from here against other currencies and against hard assets. Gold, for instance, that's why we've seen such an extraordinary surge in gold prices.   Speaker 1  36:38   right? Gold prices soared above three $500 and Richard I'm just saying what I'm thinking. It's remarkable that Trump continues to be surrounded by sycophants that just act obsequiously toward him and want to stay in line and do whatever he says. And I haven't seen anyone breaking that pattern.   Richard Duncan  36:59   I'm not going to comment on that observation, but what I would like to say is that if this scenario does play out, and it does seem that we're moving in that direction, then this big economic boom is very likely to ultimately lead to the big economic bust. Every big boom leads to a big bust, right? Big credit booms lower interest rates, much more borrowing by households, individuals, companies. It would while the borrowing is going on, the consumption grows and the investment grows, but sooner or later, it hits the point where even with very low interest rates, the consumers wouldn't be able to repay their loans, like we saw in 2008 businesses wouldn't be able to repay their loans, and they would begin defaulting, as they did in 2008 and at that point, everything goes into reverse, and the banks begin to fail when they don't receive their loan repayments. And it leads to a systemic financial sector crisis. The banks lend less when credit starts to contract, then the economy collapses into a very serious recession, or even worse, unless the government intervenes again. So big boom that will last for a few years, followed by a big bust. That's the most probable outcome, but I do see one other possibility of how that outcome could be avoided, on the optimistic side, and this is it. If once President Trump slash Fed Chairman Trump has complete control over US monetary policy, then it won't take him long to realize Stephen Moran has probably already told him that he would then be able to use the Fed to fund his us, sovereign wealth fund. You will remember, back in February, President Trump signed an executive order creating a US sovereign wealth fund. And this was music to my ears, because for years, as you well know, I've been advocating for the US government to finance a multi trillion dollar 10 year investment in the industries and technologies of the future   Keith Weinhold  39:01   including on this show, you laid that out for us a few years ago and made your case for that here, and then Trump made it happen.   Richard Duncan  39:08   Let's try my book from 2022 it was called the money revolution. How to finance the next American century? Well, how to finance the next American Century is to have the US, government finance, a very large investment in new industries and new technologies in things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotechnology, genetic engineering, biotech, robotics, clean energy and fusion, create fusion and everything, world where energy is free, ultimate abundance. So I was very happy that President Trump created this US sovereign wealth fund. Now that he will soon have complete control over his US monetary policy, he will understand that he can use the Fed to fund this, US sovereign wealth fund. He can have the Fed create money through quantitative easing and. And start investing in fusion. We can speed up the creation of the invention of low cost fusion. We could do that in a relatively small number of years, instead of perhaps a decade or longer, as things are going now, we could ensure that the United States wins the AI arms race that we are in with China. Whoever develops super intelligence first is probably going to conquer the world. We know what the world looks like when the United States is the sole superpower. We've been living in that world for 80 years. Yeah, we don't know what the world would look like if it's conquered by China. And China is the control super intelligence and becomes magnitudes greater in terms of their capacity across everything imaginable than the United States is whoever wins the AI arms race will rule the world. This sort of investment through a US sovereign wealth fund would ensure that the winner is the US and on atop it, so it would shore up US national security and large scale investments in these new technologies would also turbocharge US economic growth and hopefully allow us to avoid the bust that is likely to ultimately occur following The approaching boom, and keep the economy growing long into the future, rather than just having a short term boom and bust, a large scale investment in the industries of the future could create a technological revolution that would generate very rapid growth in productivity, very rapid economic growth, shore up US national security, and result in technological miracles and medical breakthroughs, possibly curing all the diseases, cure cancer, cure Alzheimer's, extend life expectancy by decades, healthy life expectancy. So that is a very optimistic outcome that could result from President Trump becoming Fed Chairman Trump and gaining complete control over monetary policy. And this is all part of the plan of making America great again. If he really followed through on this, then he certainly would be able to restructure the US economy, re industrialize it, create a technological revolution that ensured us supremacy for the next century. That's how to finance the next American century.   Speaker 1  42:23   Oh, well, Richard, I like what you're leaving us with here. You're giving us some light, and you're talking about real productivity gains that really drives an economy and progress and an increased standard of living over the long term. But yes, in the nearer term, this fed takeover, there could be some pain and a whole lot of questions in getting there. Richard, your macro watch piece that caught my attention is so interesting to a lot of people. How can more people learn about that and connect with you and the great work you do on macro watch, which is your video newsletter   Richard Duncan  43:00   Thanks, Keith. So it's really been completely obvious that President Trump was very likely to try to take over the Fed. Nine months ago, I made a macro watch video in December called Will Trump in the Fed, spelling out various ways he could take over the Fed, and why he probably would find it necessary to do so. So what macro watch is is it describes how the economy really works in the 21st Century. It doesn't work the way it did when gold was money. We're in a completely different environment now, where the government is directing the economy and the Fed, or seeing the President has the power to create limitless amounts of money, and this changes the way everything works, and so that's what macro watch explains. It's a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to impact asset prices, stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and wealth in general. So if your listeners are interested, I'd encourage them to visit my website, which is Richard Duncan economics.com that's Richard Duncan economics.com and if they'd like to subscribe, hit the subscribe button. And for I'd like to offer them a 50% subscription discount. If they use the discount coupon code, G, R, E, thank you, GRE, they can subscribe at half price. I think they'll find that very affordable. And they will get a new video every couple of weeks from me, and they will have immediate access to the macro watch archives, which have more than 100 hours of videos. Macro watch was founded by me 12 years ago, and I intend to keep doing this, hopefully far into the future. So I hope your listeners will check that out.   Keith Weinhold  44:46   Well, thanks, both here on the show and on macro watch Richard gives you the type of insight that's hard to find anywhere else, and you learn it through him oftentimes before it makes the headlines down the road. So. Richard, this whole concept of a Fed takeover is just unprecedented, as far as I know, and it's been so interesting to talk about it. Thanks for coming back onto the show.   Richard Duncan  45:08   Thank you, Keith. I look forward to the next time.   Speaker 1  45:17   Yeah, fascinating stuff from Richard in the nearer term, we could then see interest rate cuts that would go along with cuts to mortgages and credit card rates and car loan rates and all kinds of bank lending rates. This could pump up the value of real estate, stocks, Bitcoin, gold, nearly everything a wealth bonanza. Now, in polls, most Americans think that the Fed should stay independent from outside control. You really heard about how the President is dismantling the safeguards that protect that fed independence, the strategy he's using to bend the Federal Open Market Committee to His will. And this is not speculation, because, as you can tell, the takeover of the Fed is already underway. A fed governor has been fired. New loyalists are being installed, and key votes are lining up in the President's favor. But as far as the longer term, you've got to ask yourself, if these policies will inflate a giant bubble destined to burst down the road. I mean triggering a crisis as bad as 2008 I mean, these are the very questions that every investor should be asking right now, if you find this in similar content fascinating, and you want to stay on top of what is forward looking what's coming next macroeconomically, check out Richard Duncan's macro watch at Richard Duncan economics.com for our listeners, he's long offered the discount code for a 50% discount that code is GRE, that's Richard Duncan economics.com and the discount code GRE next week here on the show, we're bringing it back closer to home with key us, real estate investing strategies and insights, a lot of ways to increase your income. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit you Daydream.   Speaker 3  47:20   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Speaker 1  47:40   You You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text gre to 66866,   Keith Weinhold  48:59   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com you.  

Federal Reserve watchers feel pretty sure the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent this week. The real question? Whether Jay Powell and co. have more rate cuts planned, or if they're taking it meeting by meeting. Also in this episode: An Atlanta non profit helps refugee women become entrepreneurs and the U.S. TikTok deadline approaches.

In the most likely scenario being priced in by markets, the Fed on Sept. 17 will lower the overnight funds rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point. However, traders left open a remote chance that the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee still could enact a half-point reduction.~This Episode is Sponsored By Coinbase~ Buy $50 & Get $50 for getting started on Coinbase➜ https://bit.ly/CBARRON00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: Coinbase00:40 Job data revisions01:00 White house responds, blames Biden02:45 CNBC: Peak tariff temper tantrum04:11 China wrecked05:15 Rate cut season06:30 Money markets07:20 CNBC: Data problems and how to fix it09:00 Reminder October 2109:30 No rate cut = Market crash10:35 Bitcoin reserve w/ seized funds11:00 Eric Trump downgraded11:45 Robinhood $16012:30 Stablecoin FUD13:00 $USDG13:45 Outro#Bitocin #federalreserve #Crypto~Rate Cut Season Heats Up

In this week's episode, we discuss the latest economic and market news, including updates on unemployment claims, GDP growth, and inflation data. Our experts provide their insights and analysis on the implications of these and other economic developments, particularly the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. We also touch on the potential political challenges facing the Fed and questions about its independence and how that could affect the equity and bond markets. 01:59 – The three reports this week on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and consumer spending, are painting a mixed picture of the economy.04:49 – Nvidia's earnings report feels representative of the broader market; equities continued to climb this week, despite a sell off Friday morning and the potential for seasonal plateaus.06:15 – Turmoil at the Fed having minimal impact on equities, but the bond market appears much more susceptible as the yield curve steepens.08:29 – We ruminate on the implications for Fed independence, the rate environment, and overall economic and social implications of a change in the composition of the Fed Board of Governors.10:28 – Parallels may be seen between the current economic climate and the bubble of the late 1990s to mid 2000s.13:28 – Rate cuts are still likely at September's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.14:31 – Some advice on how to approach your portfolio in the midst of an uncertain economic and political climate.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities Additional ResourcesAttend: AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know.Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Fed Governor Lisa Cook vows to fight back against President Trump, saying he doesn't have the authority to fire her. The Fed's former General Counsel joins the show. Representing the Fed's Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee for 13 years. Laying out some scenarios of what could happen next. Then former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin is also with us. With more on the impact for the Fed's independence and the impact on rates. Plus Nvidia caught in the crosshairs of geopolitics. Can CEO Jensen Huang play international diplomat to unlock the resumption of its China specific exports?

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Lisa Abramowicz and Michael McKee discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.They speak with: Jim Bullard, Former St. Louis Fed President Kate Moore, Citi Wealth CIO Rich Clarida, Former Fed Vice ChairFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell carefully opened the door to an interest-rate cut in September, pointing to rising risks for the labor market even as worries over inflation remain.“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said in remarks prepared for the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” Following Powell’s remarks investors boosted bets that the Federal Open Market Committee would cut rates at their Sept. 16-17 meeting. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a dichotomy between the pace of job growth and the unemployment rate. Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach analyze how the Fed might address this paradox.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today – a look back at last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC, and the path for rates from here.It's Tuesday, August 5th at 10am in New York.Mike, last week the Fed met for the fifth time this year. The committee didn't provide a summary of their economic projections, but they did update their official policy statement. And of course, Chair Powell spoke at the press conference. How would you characterize the tone of both?Michael Gapen: Yeah, at first the statement I thought took on a slightly dovish tone for two reasons. One, unexpected; the other expected. So, the committee did revise down their assessment of growth and economic activity. They had previously described the economy as growing at a quote, ‘solid pace,' and now they said, you know, the incoming data suggests that growth and economic activity moderated.So that's true. That's actually our view as well. We think the data points to that. The second reason the statement looked a little dovish, and this was expected is the Fed received two dissents. So, Governors Bowman and Waller both dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting.But then the press conference started. And I would characterize that as Powell having at least some renewed concerns around persistence of inflation. So, he did recognize or acknowledge that the June inflation data showed a tariff impulse. But I'd say the more hawkish overtones really came in his description of the labor market, which I know were going to get into.And we've been kind of wondering and, you know, asking implicitly – is the Fed ever going to take a stand on what constitutes a healthy and/or weak labor market? And Powell, I think put down a lot of markers in the direction; that said, it's not so much about employment growth, it's about a low unemployment rate. And he kept describing the labor market as solid, and in healthy condition, and at full employment. So, the combination of that suggests it's a higher bar, in our mind, for the Fed to cut in September.Matthew Hornbach: And on the labor market, if we could dig a little bit deeper on that point. It did seem to me certainly that Powell was channeling your views on the labor market.Michael Gapen: Well, I wish I had that power but thank you.Matthew Hornbach: Well. I'd like to now channel your views – and of course his views – to our listeners. Can you just go a little bit deeper into this dichotomy that you've been highlighting between the pace of job growth and the unemployment rate itself?Michael Gapen: Yeah. Our thesis and what we've laid out coming into the year, and we think the data supports, is the idea that immigration controls have really slowed growth in the labor force. And what that means is the break-even rate of employment has come down.So even as economic growth has slowed and demand for labor has slowed, and therefore employment growth has slowed – the unemployment rate has stayed low, and there's some paradox in that. Normally when employment growth weakens, we think the economy's rolling over; the Fed should be easing.But in an environment of a very slow growing labor force, the two can coincide. And there's tension in that, we recognize. But our view is – the more the administration pushes in the direction of restraining immigration, the more likely it is you'll see the combination of low employment growth, but a low unemployment rate. And our view is that still means the labor market is tight.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed, indeed. Just one last question from me. How are you thinking about the Fed's policy path from here? In particular, how are you looking at the remaining data that could get the Fed to cut rates in September?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that there's no magic sauce here, if you will; or secret sauce. Powell, you know, essentially is laying out a case where it's more likely than not inflation will be deviating from the 2 percent target as tariffs get passed through to consumer prices. And the flag that he planted on the labor market suggests maybe they're leaning in the direction of thinking the unemployment rates is likely to stay low.So, we just need more revelations on this front. And the gap between the July and the September FOMC meetings is the longest on the Fed's calendar. So, they will see two inflation reports and two labor market reports. And again, it just to provide context and color, right? What I think Powell was doing was positioning his view against the two dissents that he received. So where, for example, Governor Waller laid out a case where weaker employment growth could justify cuts, Powell was reflecting the view of the rest of the committee that said, ‘Well, it's not really employment growth, it's about that unemployment rate.'So, when these data arrive, we'll be kind of weighing both of those components. What does employment growth look like going forward? How weak is it? And what's happening to that unemployment rate?So, if the Fed's doing its job, this shouldn't be magic. If the labor market's obviously rolling over, you'll get cuts later this year. If not, we think our view will play out and the Fed will be on the sideline through, you know, early 2026 before it moves to rate cuts then.So Matt, what I'd like to do is kind of turn from the economics over to the rates views. How did the rates market respond to the meeting, to the statement, to the press conference? How are you thinking about the market pricing of the policy path into your end?Matthew Hornbach: So initially when the statement was released, as you noted, it had a dovish flavor to it. And so, we had a small repricing in the interest rate market, putting a little bit of a higher probability, on the idea that the Fed would lower rates in September. But then as Chair Powell began the press conference and started to articulate his views around both inflation and the labor market we saw the market take out some probability that the Fed would lower rates in September.And where it ended up at the end of that particular day was putting about a 50 percent probability on a rate cut and as a result of 50 percent probability of no rate cut; leaving the data to really dictate where the pricing of that meeting would go from there.That to me speaks to this data dependence of the Fed, as you've discussed. And I think that in the coming weeks we get more of this data that you talked about, both on the inflation side of the mandate and on the labor market side of the mandate. And ultimately, if they end up, going in September, I would've expected the market to have priced most of that in, ahead of the meeting. And if they end up not cutting rates in September, then naturally the market will have moved in that direction ahead of time.And again, I think what ends up happening in September will be critical for how the market ends up pricing the evolution of policy in November and December. But to me, what I think is more interesting is your view on 2026. And in that regard, the market is still some distance away from your view, that the Fed goes about 175 basis points in 2026.Michael Gapen: Yeah, I mean, we're still thinking the lagged effects of tariffs and immigration will slow the economy enough to get more Fed cuts than the market's thinking. But, you know, we'll see if that happens. And maybe that's a topic we can turn back to in upcoming Thoughts on the Market.But what I'd like to do is ask you this. I've been reading some of your recent work on term premiums. And in my view, had this really interesting analysis about how the market prices Fed policy and how U.S. Treasury yields then adjust and move.You highlighted that Treasury yields built in a term premium after April 2nd. What's happening with that term premium today?Matthew Hornbach: Yeah. The April 2nd Liberation Day event catalyzed an expansion of term premia in the Treasury market. And ultimately what that means is that Treasury yields went up relative to what people were thinking about the path of Fed policy, And of course, the risks that they were thinking about in the month of April were risks related to trade policy. Those risks have diminished somewhat, I would argue in the subsequent months as the administration has been announcing deals with some of our trading partners. And then the market's focus turned to supply and what was going to happen with U.S. Treasury supply. And then, of course, the reaction of investors to that coming supply.And I would say, given what the Treasury announced last week, which was – it had no intention of raising supply, in the next several quarters. In our view is that the U.S. Treasury will not have to raise supply until the early part of 2027. So way off in the distance. So, investors are becoming more comfortable taking on duration risk in their portfolios because some of that uncertainty that opened up after April 2nd has been put away.Michael Gapen: Yeah, I can see how the substantial tariff revenue we're bringing in could affect that story. So, for example, I think if you annualize the run rates on tariffs, you'll get something over $300 billion in a 12-month period. And that certainly will have an impact on Treasury supply.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. And so, as we make our way through the month of August, we'll get an update to those tariff revenues. And also, towards the end of August, we will have the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where Chair Powell will give us his updated thoughts on what is the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. And Mike, I look forward to catching up with you after that.Thanks for taking the time to talk today.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Many Canadians can attest that this summer has been red hot on a number of different fronts. What we've all felt in the pool or on the patio has, in a way, mirrored the heat we've seen in equity markets since mid-April. With that mind - this week comes with no shortage of data. Big earnings prints, a Federal Open Market Committee decision and jobs could all weigh on the market's trajectory in the second half of 2025. Joining this episode to unpack some of those themes and how he's navigating today's climate through a Market Neutral strategy is Portfolio Manager Brett Dley. Recorded on July 30, 2025. At Fidelity, our mission is to build a better future for Canadian investors and help them stay ahead. We offer investors and institutions a range of innovative and trusted investment portfolios to help them reach their financial and life goals. Fidelity mutual funds and ETFs are available by working with a financial advisor or through an online brokerage account. Visit fidelity.ca/howtobuy for more information. For a fourth year in a row, FidelityConnects by Fidelity Investments Canada was ranked #1 podcast by Canadian financial advisors in the 2024 Environics' Advisor Digital Experience Study.

Shares in Japan fluctuated at the open while those in South Korea and Australia were flat Wednesday after the S&P 500 snapped a six-day rally. Treasuries were steady in early Asian trading after jumping the most in a month in the prior session. In the US, Federal Reserve policymakers are largely expected to hold interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting at the conclusion of their July 29-30 gathering. Dissents from one or more officials could send the message that some members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee prefer to reduce borrowing costs sooner rather than later. We preview Thursday's FOMC decision with Mark Heppenstall, President and CIO at Penn Mutual Asset Management. Plus - US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks and Trump will make the final call on any extension. Adding an extra 90 days is one option, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Meantime, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that the world economy will keep weakening and remains vulnerable to trade shocks even though it is showing some resilience to Donald Trump's tariffs. We break down the latest trade headlines with Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. He speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on The Asia Trade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research strategists recap a golden week for the S&P 500, share LPL Research's latest thoughts on the economy, and preview one of the busiest weeks in recent memory. Stocks rose last week, sending the S&P 500 Index to more new highs. A trade agreement with Japan and solid earnings results were among the positive catalysts that kept the impressive rally going. The strategists explain that the economy's second quarter rebound follows a first quarter suppressed by a surge in imports from businesses front-running tariff threats. The subsequent rebound in growth might create a perception of a strong recovery—likely a head fake. The whiplash in trade policy adversely impacts official economic data and makes it difficult for investors to discern whether the economy is genuinely rebounding or merely experiencing short-term fluctuations. Next, the strategists preview a very busy week ahead. The highlight of the week will likely be the Fed's press conference on Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep rates unchanged as the Committee remains in wait-and-see mode. However, we might see some dissents in the statement, plus updates on potential tariff impacts from the Chair during the press conference. This week also brings trade negotiations with China, a federal court ruling on the legal basis for many of the Trump administration's tariffs, a huge week of earnings with over 160 S&P 500 companies reporting, and several top-tier economic data points including second quarter GDP, July payrolls, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, and monthly consumer spending. Tracking: #775339

What is the Fed, and why does Jerome Powell seem to have Wall Street on speed dial? This week, the “Henssler Money Talks” hosts unpack the power and purpose of the Federal Reserve—who runs it, who appoints them, and how their decisions ripple through everything from Treasury bonds to your credit card APR. We break down the rates the Fed actually controls and why those moves matter. Plus, if the Fed is supposed to be independent, why does it feel like politics—especially Trump's calls for lower rates—are always lurking in the background?Original Air Date: July 26, 2025Read the Article: https://www.henssler.com/short-term-demands-vs-long-term-goals-the-feds-balancing-act

The long-awaited trade deal between the EU and the US only provided a temporary boost to the markets, with concerns swiftly being voiced in Europe. Many described the agreement as one-sided, favouring US interests. Following the announcement, the US dollar strengthened while the price of gold plummeted to a three-week low. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, driven by the trade deal and President Trump's renewed pressure on Russia. Attention now turns to US monetary policy, with the Federal Open Market Committee commencing its two-day meeting today. Joining us on the show to discuss the implications of last week's European Central Bank decision and provide insight into this week's rate decision in the US is our Chief Economist, David Kohl.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:12) - Central Banks and Trade Deals: David Kohl, Chief Economist (12:26) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

What is the Fed, and why does Jerome Powell seem to have Wall Street on speed dial? This week, we unpack the power and purpose of the Federal Reserve—who runs it, who appoints them, and how their decisions ripple through everything from Treasury bonds to your credit card APR. We break down the rates the Fed actually controls (spoiler: it's not all of them) and why those moves matter. Plus, if the Fed is supposed to be independent, why does it feel like politics—especially Trump's calls for lower rates—are always lurking in the background?Next, we ask, “Is the upper middle class having an identity crisis?” We dig into the surprising squeeze on America's “comfortably wealthy.” From overcrowded Amex lounges to bidding wars for average homes, we explore how rising wealth—especially among the top 10%—is making luxury feel less exclusive. We explore what it means for expectations around lifestyle and status, and how the wealth ladder is getting more crowded at the top.In Part 1 of our series on the evolution of payments, we dive into the rise of credit cards and how they reshaped the way we spend. We explore the move toward a cashless society—fueled by digital wallets and tap-to-pay tech—but also spotlight the pushback: small businesses are passing credit card fees onto customers, and even some places going cash-only. So where are we really headed? Is cash dying, or just evolving?Join hosts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, Director of Research, and Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Kelly-Lynne Scalice, a seasoned communicator and host, on Henssler Money Talks as they explore key financial strategies to help investors navigate market uncertainty.Henssler Money Talks — July 26, 2025  |  Season 39, Episode 30Timestamps and Chapters8:27: Third of the Way Through Earnings Season19:58: The Fed's Big Influence 32:03: Too Many Millionaires, Not Enough Pool Chairs54:13: From Cash to Tap: How Credit Cards Changed EverythingFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Henssler Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial.

As Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends next year, our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discusses the potential policy impact of a so-called “shadow Fed chair”.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. And today – well, there's a topic that's stirring up a lot of speculation on Wall Street and in Washington. It's this idea of a Shadow Fed Chair. It's Monday, July 21, at 2 PM in New York. Let's start with the basics. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term expires in May of next year. And look at any newspaper that covers the economy or markets, and you will see that President Trump has been critical of monetary policy under Chair Powell. Those facts have led to a flurry of questions: Who might succeed Chair Powell? When will we know? And—maybe most importantly—how should investors think about these implications? President Trump has been clear in his messaging: he wants the Fed to cut rates more aggressively. But even though it seems clear that there will be a new Chair in June of next year, market pricing suggests a policy rate just above 3 percent by the end of next year. That level is lower than the current Fed rate of 4.25 [percent] to 4.50 [percent], but not aggressively so. In fact, Morgan Stanley's base case is that the policy rate is going to be even a bit lower than market pricing suggests. So why this disconnect? First, although there are several names that have been floated by media sources, and the Secretary of the Treasury has said that a process to select the next Chair has begun, we really just don't know who Powell's successor would be. News reports suggest we will get a name by late summer though. Another key point, from my perspective, is even when Powell's term as Chair ends, the Fed's reaction function—which is to say how the Fed reacts to incoming economic data—well, it's probably not going to change overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee, or the FOMC, makes policy and that policy making is a group effort.  And that group dynamic tends to restrain sudden shifts in policy. So, even after Powell steps down, this internal dynamic could keep policy on a fairly steady course for a while. But some changes are surely coming. First, there's a vacancy on the Fed Board in January. And that seat could easily go to Powell's successor—before the Chair position officially changes.  In other words, we might see what people are calling a Shadow Chair, sitting on the FOMC, influencing policy from the inside.Would that matter to markets?Possibly. Especially if the successor is particularly vocal and signals a markedly different stance in policy.  But again, the same committee dynamics that should keep policy steady so far might limit any other immediate shifts. Even with an insider talking. As importantly, history suggests that political appointees often shed their past affiliations once they take office, focusing instead on the Fed's dual mandate: maximum sustainable employment and stable prices.But there are always quirky twists to most stories: Powell's seat on the Board doesn't actually expire when his term as Chair ends. Technically, he could stay on as a regular Board member—just like Michael Barr did after stepping down as the Vice Chair for Supervision. Now Powell hasn't commented on all this, so for now, it's just a thought experiment. But here's another thought experiment: the FOMC is technically a separate agency from the Board of Governors. Now, by tradition, the chair of the board is picked by the FOMC to be chair of the FOMC, but that's not required by law. In one version of the world, in theory, the committee could choose someone else. Would that happen?  Well, I think that's unlikely. In my experience, the Fed is an institution that has valued orthodoxy and continuity. But it's just a reminder that rules aren't always quite as rigid as they seem. And regardless, the Chair of the Fed always matters. While the FOMC votes on policy, the Chair sets the tone, frames the debate, and often guides where consensus ends up. And over time, as new appointees join the Board, the new Chair's influence will only grow. Even the selection of Reserve Bank Presidents is subject to a Board veto, and that would give the Chair indirect sway over the entire FOMC.Where does all of this leave us? For now, this Shadow Chair debate is more of a nuance than the primary narrative. We don't expect the Fed's reaction function to change between now and May. But beyond that, the range of outcomes starts to widen more and more and more.  Until then, I would say the bigger risk to our Fed forecast isn't politics. It's our forecast for the economy—and on that front we remain, as always, very humble. Well, thanks for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen; and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, Mark Thornton breaks down the political pressure from Trump, market demands for cheap money, and the Federal Reserve's real fears: a collapsing dollar, rising inflation, and soaring long-term rates. Mark traces the history of interest rate manipulation, the precarious state of US debt, and why Chairman Powell may be clinging to high rates—not for the public good, but to save face before his 2026 exit. With the dollar weakening and deficits exploding, Mark explains why the next crisis could be just one rate cut away.Additional Resources"Trump Is Wrong about Interest Rates" by Ryan McMaken (Radio Rothbard Podcast): https://mises.org/MI_129_A"Will Fed Cut Rates By 3%? Is Massive Inflation Returning? Economist Steve Hanke Answers": https://mises.org/MI_129_B"Federal Funds Effective Rate": https://mises.org/MI_129_C"Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index": https://mises.org/MI_129_D"Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis": https://mises.org/MI_129_E"Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 17–18, 2025" (PDF): https://mises.org/MI_129_F"US FOMC Meeting Minutes (June 17-18, 2025)" by Ksenia Bushmeneva: https://mises.org/MI_129_GRegister for the 2025 Mises Institute Supporters Summit in Delray Beach, Florida, October 16–18: https://mises.org/ss25Be sure to follow Minor Issues at https://Mises.org/MinorIssues

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee met, and didn't cut the overnight rate. This even though its economic projections were far from robust. Somewhat frustratingly, the Fed reported it thinks the long-term growth rate for the US economy is around 1.8%. This is well less than the historical average, and would cause our deficit to balloon even more than forecast. Further, the President's tariff wars appear to have the Fed spooked, as it now thinks inflation will hit 3.0% by the end of the year. All told, the Fed meeting this week was something of a downer. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Fed meeting and how no one should be fired up about it.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets later this week, and it's pretty likely they'll examine why tariffs didn't drive inflation up in May. The good news? A slew of economic data coming out this week could clear things up, and help them make an interest rate decision. Also in this episode: Other central banks have June meetings on the books, domestic steel production ramps up under tariffs — but steel jobs don't — and Halloween came early this year. Like, really early.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets later this week, and it's pretty likely they'll examine why tariffs didn't drive inflation up in May. The good news? A slew of economic data coming out this week could clear things up, and help them make an interest rate decision. Also in this episode: Other central banks have June meetings on the books, domestic steel production ramps up under tariffs — but steel jobs don't — and Halloween came early this year. Like, really early.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

In this week's episode we unpack three reports about the labor market; the mixed results show an uptick in new job openings amid increasing initial weekly unemployment claims, though the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. We also discuss the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report, which shows elevated levels of consumer and commercial uncertainty ahead of the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As always, we analyze how this news is affecting the equity and fixed income markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:07 – The Fed's Beige Book shows mixed growth across districts, and an increasing degree of policy and economic uncertainty.02:59 – We introduce two reports about jobs and payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and another report from the Department of Labor on unemployment.06:20 – Putting the news of the week in context of the overall uncertainty caused by the question of tariffs and trade policy.07:24 – Equities appear to be on an upward trajectory calling the old “Sell in May and go away” adage into question.10:05 – The Magnificent 7 companies' stocks take diverging paths resulting from tariffs or noise from the Beltway.12:10 – The bond market reacts to the nonfarm payroll news, while traders ease their expectations of future rate cuts.13:27 – Treasury yields moved higher, though buyers remain standoffish amid the continuing debate on the U.S. fiscal deficit and tax policy.15:27 – Credit spreads show an optimistic outlook, especially on corporate issuances.16:31 – In a reversal of the historic norm, global central banks made moves to cut rates rather than following the U.S. Fed's example.Additional ResourcesJoin our June 11 National CallKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

Jon Hartley and Randal Quarles discuss Randy's career as a lawyer and in policy (including his time as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Regulation) and topics such as the global financial crisis, Glass-Steagall, banking regulation, lender of last resort, Basel III, the Dodd-Frank Act, capital requirements, the potential relaxation of Treasuries in the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), deposit insurance after the Silicon Valley Bank regional banking crisis, and stablecoin regulation. Recorded on May 29, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Randal Quarles is the Chairman and co-founder of The Cynosure Group.  Before founding Cynosure, Mr. Quarles was a long-time partner of the Carlyle Group, where he began the firm's program of investments in the financial services industry during the 2008 financial crisis. From October 2017 through October 2021, Mr. Quarles was Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, serving as the system's first Vice Chairman for Supervision, charged specifically with ensuring stability of the financial sector.  He also served as the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (“FSB”) from December 2018 until December 2021; a global body established after the Great Financial Crisis to coordinate international efforts to enhance financial stability. In both positions, he played a key role in crafting the US and international response to the economic and financial dislocations of COVID-19, successfully preventing widespread global disruption of the financial system.  As FSB Chairman, he was a regular delegate to the finance ministers' meetings of the G-7 and G20 Groups of nations and to the Summit meetings of the G20.  As Fed Vice Chair, he was a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the body that sets monetary policy for the United States. Earlier in his career, Mr. Quarles was Under Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, where he led the Department's activities in financial sector and capital markets policy, including coordination of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. Before serving as Under Secretary, Mr. Quarles was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, where he had a key role in responding to several international crises.  Mr. Quarles was also the U.S. Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund, a member of the Air Transportation Stabilization Board, and a board representative for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. In earlier public service, he was an integral member of the Treasury team in the George H. W. Bush Administration that developed the governmental response to the savings and loan crisis. Jon Hartley is currently a Policy Fellow at the Hoover Institution, an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, a Research Fellow at the UT-Austin Civitas Institute, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center. Jon is also the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast, an official podcast of the Hoover Institution, a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and the chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a Fixed Income Portfolio Construction and Risk Management Associate and as a Quantitative Investment Strategies Client Portfolio Management Senior Analyst and in various policy/governmental roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star, among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper.  ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics.

In this week's episode, we review the news from Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, highlighting four themes: a slower path to rate cuts; rising risk of policy dilemma and potential stagflation; decisions will be made based on data, not any pre-committed timelines; a policy bias towards easing but with less conviction. Overall economic indicators remain stable, setting us up for a peaceful weekend to celebrate the mothers in our lives this Mother's Day.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:57 – Weekly initial unemployment claims ending May 3 came in at 228,000, leveling out last week's larger than average increase, signaling that unemployment remains stable. 02:25 – The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Report showed a tenth consecutive month of expansion in April, and effectively for the past five years. This further contrasts with the weak manufacturing economy. 03:17 – News from Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee, during which the Fed maintained its current target rate of 4.25% to 4.50%, citing ongoing economic uncertainties especially from recent trade policies. We explore four key themes to level set future expectations. 10:18 – Due to the Fed's cautious wait-and-see approach, and given the Trump administration's 90-day pause on tariffs, the Fed will likely not make any significant decisions prior to its July 30 meeting. 11:04 – A potential trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom may inform what we can expect on overall trade policy going forward.  13:19 – Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 are hovering around or above their respective 200-day averages, signaling continuing improvement after the Liberation Day fallout. 16:40 – News from Apple and Google appear to validate the idea that Artificial Intelligence is disrupting industry writ large, and a future with a new list of “Magnificent Seven” stocks may come sooner than later. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Is Jay Powell's Job at Risk, and What Are the Risks for Investors? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn 

On today's podcast: 1) President Trump is expected to unveil a limited trade deal with the UK this morning and hints at a new tension point in trade talks with China. The UK deal is likely to focus on reducing tariffs on cars and steel, and may include discussions on tech, AI, and digital trade, but will come with significant caveats and may not be a comprehensive trade pact. 2) Fed Chair Jay Powell says he won't be rushed into lowering interest rates. Powell says he won't lower borrowing costs until there's more certainty on the direction of trade policy, which will have to come from the White House. The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady and said the risks of seeing higher inflation and unemployment had risen due to uncertainty over trade policy and tariffs. 3) The White House plans to get rid of Biden-era chip export restrictions. The repeal would provide fresh opportunities for other countries to negotiate their own chip access, influenced by investment promises or broader trade and diplomatic considerations, while measures targeting China would remain in place.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's been a lot of talk over the past few weeks about the economy and a word that keeps coming up is ... uncertainty.  President Trump's changing tariff policies have made it difficult for businesses and consumers to plan. Stock markets here and abroad have plunged and then recovered some ground and then dropped again. Many of us have questions about what's happening and how the uncertainty could affect prices, our jobs and savings.   MPR News host Angela Davis talks about the economy with Neel Kashkari, the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Later in the hour, she talks with a financial advisor about how to manage your money during stock market swings and an unsettled job market. Guests: Chris Farrell is senior economics contributor for MPR News and Marketplace. Neel Kashkari is the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. He serves as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee which sets the nation's monetary policy. Ross Levin is the founder of Accredited Investors Wealth Management in Edina. And he is a regular columnist for the Minnesota Star Tribune. 

Inflation - Transitory again.. April 2 dealing approaching! Doctor Copper! Mag 7 = Lag 7 A New Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - Inflation - Transitory again - End of month - March not so good for US Markets - investors may try to squeeze toward the end - Tariff waves - now there is talk of softening - April 2 is the day - next Wednesday. - A restaurant Chain at ALL-TIME highs.... - Turkey - Market Mayhem - An fun Limerick from a Listener Markets - Doctor Copper! - Mag 7 = Lag 7 - Tesla Woes- Stock bouncing but challenges still remain - March Sadness for Markets... Attention Collectors!  - The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by the end of the month above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000. -  Put your address and size in the comments Tariff Day - April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on - Why April 2nd? Why not April 1st?????? --- Worried that is April Fool's day and no one would take them seriously? Copper Prices - 45 year high - What is this? Usually a predictor of the economic conditions - - Seems like a little inflation (China also pumping) - FYI - An average single-family home contains roughly 439 pounds (or 200 kilograms) of copper, primarily in wiring, plumbing, appliances, and hardware Doctor Copper What about Coffee? - Chart - Cents per pound - These increases are driven by climate-related impacts on major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, as well as financial speculation in the market - DOUBLE THE PRICE of last year Coffee Prices Housing Prices - Reports that tariff induced panic is prices of raw materials is pushing prices up - Developers are not going to get behind and this may push prices up - on average $10,000 per new home (at least) Powell on Inflation - Back to Transitory - In his latest speech/commentary last week, he hinted that he believes that the current - During his post-decision press conference last Wednesday, Powell said tariff-induced inflation could be “transitory,” or temporary. - Here we go again! Stagflation Anyone? - Fed sees higher inflation and an economy growing by less than 2% this year - The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee downgraded its collective outlook for economic growth to 1.7%, down from the last projection of 2.1% in December. In the meantime, officials hiked their inflation outlook, seeing core prices growing at a 2.8% annual pace, up from the previous estimate of 2.5%. - In a statement, the FOMC noted the "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased," adding that the central bank is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate." Meanwhile... - The 3-month Treasury rate inverted against the 10-year for a bit earlier this month. - Currently they are locked at the same rate... - This is the Fed's "preferred" measure of the potential for a recession in the future. Boeing - Boeing wins $20-billion contract for Next Generation Air Dominance program - Win comes after Boeing annual loss, strike, other setbacks - On the news, Boeing's shares rise, Lockheed's fall - Lockheed has been plagued by delays in F-35 upgrade - New name of the aircraft? The F-47 ! New-Clear Energy - A nuclear power plant on the shores of Lake Michigan is aiming to make history this fall by becoming the first reactor in the U.S. to restart operations after shutting down to be eventually dismantled.

Law and Tax Considerations for Agriculture Federal Open Market Committee Announcement Bulls Versus Cows Body Condition Scoring   00:01:05 – Law and Tax Considerations for Agriculture: Roger McEowen, K-State and Washburn law professor, starts the show as he talks about potential issues for farmers and ranchers involving trade or business activity, basis, like-kind exchanges and croppers. Trade or Business; Income Tax Basis; Cropper; and Like-Kind Exchanges Article on AgManager.info   00:12:05 – Federal Open Market Committee Announcement: K-State's Brady Brewer and Brian Briggeman keep the show moving as they discuss the Federal Open Market Committee rate announcement. The pair breaks down what it means, what other factors could be at play and its impact to agriculture.   00:23:05 – Bulls Versus Cows Body Condition Scoring: The Beef Cattle Institute's Brad White, Brian Lubbers and Phillip Lancaster conclude the show with part of their Cattle Chat podcast. They converse about body condition scores for bulls versus cows. BCI Cattle Chat Podcast Bovine Science with BCI Podcast Email BCI at bci@ksu.edu     Send comments, questions or requests for copies of past programs to ksrenews@ksu.edu.   Agriculture Today is a daily program featuring Kansas State University agricultural specialists and other experts examining ag issues facing Kansas and the nation. It is hosted by Shelby Varner and distributed to radio stations throughout Kansas and as a daily podcast.   K‑State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well‑being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K‑State campus in Manhattan

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded yesterday afternoon; Fed Chaiman Jerome Powell gave his views on the economy; Kevin has the details and offers his insights. China's Commerce head: "There are no winners in a trade war": Kevin looks at what was said and not said. China partially renews US meat export permits, Kevin explains what this means and how it affects China U.S. trade relations. With fuel tax revenues down, States look to fund roads, Kevin explains and offers a solution. Oil reacts to the Energy Information Agency reporting U.S. crude inventories rising more than expected and distillate inventories falling; Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of violating a ceasefire agreement; the Federal Reserve's comments on the economy; continued U.S attacks on the Houthis in Yemen and Israel's resuming ground operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip.

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded yesterday afternoon; Fed Chaiman Jerome Powell gave his views on the economy; Kevin has the details and offers his insights. China's Commerce head: "There are no winners in a trade war": Kevin looks at what was said and not said. China partially renews US meat export permits, Kevin explains what this means and how it affects China U.S. trade relations. With fuel tax revenues down, States look to fund roads, Kevin explains and offers a solution. Oil reacts to the Energy Information Agency reporting U.S. crude inventories rising more than expected and distillate inventories falling; Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of violating a ceasefire agreement; the Federal Reserve's comments on the economy; continued U.S attacks on the Houthis in Yemen and Israel's resuming ground operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip.

Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates steady at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Federal Open Market Committee confirmed this decision, unchanged since December. Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would wait for more clarity on economic policies, especially regarding tariffs. Analysts noted that the current rate maintenance was anticipated and highlighted the need for clearer guidance from upcoming FOMC meetings. Some experts cautioned that rising tariffs and inflation might restrict future rate cuts. Fed policymakers revised forecasts, projecting a GDP growth rate of 1.7% for the year and an unemployment rate increase to 4.4%.Learn more on this news visit us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On today's show we are talking about why the Fed is so disconnected from the other central banks around the world. Only a few short months ago, you would regularly hear that the historically low interest rates of the 2010's were a thing of the past and we can't expect to see them again in our lifetime. Well, we are not far from those rates again, except in the good old US of A. The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting this week and we can expect the rate announcement this afternoon. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates constant at this week's meeting with the market having priced in a 96% chance of no rate change at all. Many of the other central banks around the world are trending to historically low rates again. Is the Fed out of touch? ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

In this episode on Certificates of Deposit (CDs) as investments, we talk about the nuanced decision-making involved in purchasing CDs and whether or not CDs are good investments, particularly in a rising interest rate environment, and we explain why interest rates are the only factor you need to consider. Wealth creation isn't solely dependent on CD rates, and we need to consider the impact of inflation and interest rates to gain a comprehensive financial perspective. The episode also explores how government strategies to combat inflation by adjusting interest rates impact not only investors, but also shape the attractiveness of CDs as an investment option. In a rising interest rate environment, buying CDs may seem like a good idea but it depends on your needs and goals. Wealth isn't created by buying a CD based on a rate. It's created by understanding why the rate may not be all that important. Banks look at what is known as the federal funds rate, also known as a benchmark rate. This is the rate banks charge one another to borrow money overnight that's needed to maintain reserve requirements. Upstream in the decision making process is the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC, who meet throughout the year to discuss and set monetary policy. Within these policies, rates are set and typically linked to inflation. When those rates are set, banks may adjust rates on loans, deposits and certificates of deposit. But just like any business, banks will adjust rates to compete in their market as they seek to cover their costs and maintain a profit. CDs specifically are an attractive tool for banks, because unlike a deposit account, CDs actually lock up customers with a maturity date, which gives banks better control of their cash flow. The higher rates draw in customers seeking to maximize their returns. Rates on CDs matter, but not as much when you factor in inflation and interest rates. If inflation is at 7% and interest rates are at 5%, the net is 2%. The same is true if inflation is at 0% and interest rates are at 2%. You have to look at both numbers to get a full picture. When you consider the gridlock within the housing market and the amount of debt our government holds, it's hard to believe rates can remain elevated over the long term. The government is desperately trying to combat inflation by raising rates. These higher rates not only impact consumers, but they also impact the government. According to the Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, in June of 2023, they projected that annual net interest costs on the federal debt would total $663 billion in 2023 and almost double over the next decade. Interest payments would total around $71 trillion over the next 30 years, taking up to 35% of all federal revenue by 2053. These numbers are impacted by interest rates and with lower rates come lower interest payments, so the government has reasons to see rates lower than they currently are. The question is: Does it make sense to lock in CD rates while rates are high? It depends. If you have money sitting in a bank account that you don't need and the CD rate is offering a higher rate than your savings, then it might be a good option. A good idea is to compare CD rates to other options like fixed annuities and money markets since they share some similarities but also have a few key differences that could make one choice better for your situation. Certificates of Deposit are offered by banks as a savings account that offers a fixed interest rate over a specified period of time, ranging from one month up to five years. They carry penalties if funds are removed before maturity, and they're FDIC insured up to $250,000. Fixed Rate annuities are issued by insurance companies and are financial products that offer a fixed interest rate over a specified period of time. Early withdrawals can incur a penalty, and interest earnings are tax deferred until you start taking distributions. The guarantees are backed by the claims paying ability of the insurance company and are insured by what is known as the State Guarantee Association. Money markets are funds issued by financial institutions that are backed by highly liquid short maturity investments. Maturities usually range from overnight to just under a year, and assets can be quickly converted to cash with minimal loss of value. They are generally considered more risky than a bank, CD or insurance company annuity, and the underlying investments include such things as treasury bills, commercial paper and CDs. While CDs offer the safety of fixed returns, they are not devoid of risks and limitations. It's essential to understand both the micro and macro economic factors that affect CD rates before diving in.      Mentioned in this episode: BrianSkrobonja.com Common Sense Financial Podcast on YouTube  Common Sense Financial Podcast on Spotify BrianSkrobonja.com/Resources - Free Resources To Help You Protect Your Financial Future Common Sense: YOUR Guide to Making Smart Choices with YOUR Money by Brian Skrobonja “What to Know About How Banks Work” The State Guaranty Association   References for this episode: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/americans-faith-in-banks-hit-low-after-failures-says-ap-norc-poll https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm https://fortune.com/recommends/banking/will-cd-rates-go-up https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html https://www.pgpf.org/analysis/2023/07/higher-interest-rates-will-raise-interest-costs-on-the-national-debt   Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. This is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual's situation. Securities offered only by duly registered individuals through Madison Avenue Securities, LLC. (MAS), Member FINRA &SIPC. Advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through Skrobonja Wealth Management (SWM), a registered investment advisor. Tax services offered only through Skrobonja Tax Consulting. MAS does not offer Build Banking or tax advice. Skrobonja Financial Group, LLC, Skrobonja Wealth Management, LLC, Skrobonja Insurance Services, LLC, Skrobonja Tax Consulting, and Build Banking are not affiliated with MAS.

Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor. The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates. And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen. What should we expect from the policies this Administration intends to pursue? Will Jerome Powell march to the President's demands? Or will he flex to assert the Fed's independence? And where does inflation figure into all of this? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

“I'd like to invite members of the Federal Open Market Committee to hop on LinkedIn and to read about the plight of so many of those who are out of work,” says Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research. In our 2025 Outlook Series, Booth sits down with Daniela Cambone to share the growing concerns over the disconnect between Fed policy and the challenges faced by everyday Americans in the labor market. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

Text us your financial questions!Henssler Money Talks — January 11, 2025  Season 39, Episode 2 This week on "Money Talks," Director of Research Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, is joined by Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, to weigh in on the ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing indices, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover for November, and the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting and what they indicated for future rate cuts. The experts had an open discussion on the Social Security Fairness Act that eliminates the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset for federal and municipal government employees. In this week's case study, D.J. and K.C. talk about how they frequently find themselves stepping into the role of a mediator or “marriage counselor” when helping couples navigate emotionally charged financial topics. The episode finishes with the hosts responding to listeners' questions on senior marriages that could eliminate some Social Security benefits and how to determine what holdings to trim for required minimum distributions.Timestamps and Chapters00:00: Market Roundup: Jan. 6 – Jan. 10, 202518:15: Open Discussion: Social Security Fairness Act27:14: Case Study:  Navigating Emotional Financial Topics39:20: Q&A Time: Intel Corp., and Trading HoursFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureGermany's economy is falling apart. [CB] are purchasing gold, the most in 14 months. Oklahoma Senator says Bitcoin has gone mainstream. The Federal Reserve is now setting up the narrative that inflation will rise if Trump implements his policies. Right on schedule. The [DS] is now setting up the narrative for a [FF]. They are doing what ever they can to make the transition as difficult as possible. The [DS] is now planning to delay the confirmation hearing and they will use every trick in the book. The CA fires are to funnel money and destroy evidence and it's a narrative shift. The problem with everything [DS] is doing is that Trump has all the leverage, game over.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Germany Faces Highest Number Of Bankruptcies Since Great Financial Crisis Germany is bracing for a sharp rise in bankruptcies this year, with an anticipated 25–30 percent increase compared to 2024, reaching levels not seen since the 2009 financial crisis. In 2024, 364 major companies with annual revenues exceeding €10 million filed for bankruptcy — a 30 percent increase over the previous year. This marks a stark contrast to 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic when 292 such companies went bankrupt. The hardest-hit sectors include automotive suppliers, mechanical engineering, construction, and healthcare.   Automotive suppliers have been identified as the most at-risk sector for insolvency in 2025, with one in six major bankruptcies in 2024 stemming from this industry. The transition to electric vehicles, declining car production, and weaker demand in key markets like China have exposed cracks in the sector's foundation.   The construction industry took a heavy hit last year, with bankruptcies rising by 53 percent.  Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1877127164719423792  Poland, Turkey, India, and China were the major buyers during this period. This trend continues to support gold prices which are up 28% since the beginning of 2024. Central banks can't get enough gold. https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1877391549501264043 Federal Reserve Officials Sound Inflation Warning… Over Trump's Policies   Federal Reserve officials  sounded the alarm on inflation over Trump's policies related to tariffs and immigration. CNBC reported: Federal Reserve officials at their December meeting expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump's policies could have, indicating that they would be moving more slowly on interest rate cuts because of the uncertainty, minutes released Wednesday showed. Without calling out Trump by name, the meeting summary featured at least four mentions about the effect that changes in immigration and trade policy could have on the U.S. economy. Since Trump's November election victory, he has signaled plans for aggressive, punitive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada as well as the other U.S. trading partners. In addition, he intends to pursue more deregulation and mass deportations. However, the extent of what Trump's actions will be and specifically how they will be directed creates a band of ambiguity about what is ahead, which Federal Open Market Committee members said would require caution. https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1854617758895325185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1854617758895325185%7Ctwgr%5E8e409946574174b6243eee5ce85223e94ae2ecf5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.

(AURN News) — We're getting a closer look at how the Federal Reserve views current economic conditions and how it may affect Americans moving forward. The Fed reported continued solid economic expansion in 2024, despite some easing in labor market conditions, according to minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "The information available at the time of the meeting indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) had continued to expand at a solid pace in 2024. Labor market conditions had eased since early 2024, but the unemployment rate remained low. Consumer price inflation was below its year-earlier rate but was still somewhat elevated," the minutes said. The Fed's analysis showed temporary fluctuations in employment data due to external factors but overall they believe the labor market remains stable. "The staff estimated that job gains were held down by the effects of labor strikes and hurricanes in October and were boosted by a similar amount in November after those effects unwound. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent in November, and both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio moved down a bit further,” the meeting notes mentioned. But when it comes to race, there are some important notes: “The unemployment rates for African Americans and for Hispanics also moved up, and both rates were above those for Asians and for Whites," according to the minutes. Looking ahead, the Fed maintained a positive outlook while acknowledging various uncertainties. "The staff projection at the December meeting was for economic conditions to stay solid. Given the elevated uncertainty regarding specifics about the scope and timing of potential changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies and their potential effects on the economy, the staff highlighted the difficulty of selecting and assessing the importance of such factors for the baseline projection and featured a number of alternative scenarios," the notes said. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Text us your financial questions!Henssler Money Talks — December 21, 2024  Season 38, Episode 51This week on "Money Talks," Director of Research Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, is joined by Managing Associates D.J. Barker, CWS®, and K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA to cover the market's volatile week, November's Retail Sales, and the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy meeting. The experts shared insights about alternative investments and how they can work in a relatively conservative portfolio. They also elaborated on the pros and cons of holding alternative investments. Timestamps and Chapters00:00: Market Roundup: Dec. 16 — Dec. 20, 202424:28: Case Study:  Alternative InvestmentsFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy joins our Chief U.S. Economist to discuss the Fed's recent rate cut and why persistent inflation is likely to slow the pace of future cuts.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew: Today, we're going to talk about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the path for rates from here.It's Thursday, December 19th at 10a.m. in New York.The FOMC meeting concluded yesterday with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point, marking the third rate cut for the year. This move by the Fed was just as the consensus had anticipated. However, in its meeting yesterday, the Fed indicated that 2025 rate cuts would happen at a slower pace than investors were expecting. So Mike, what are committee members projecting in terms of upcoming rate cuts in 2025 and 2026?Michael: Yeah, Matt, the Fed dialed back its expectations for policy rate easing in both 2025 and 2026. They now only look for two rate cuts of 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, which would bring the funds rate to 3.9% and then only another 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the policy rate to 3.4%. So a major dialing back in their expectations of rate cuts over the next two years.Matthew: What are the factors that are driving what now appears to be a slightly less dovish view of the policy rate?Michael: Chair Powell mentioned, I think, two things that were really important. One, he said that many committee members saw recent firmness in inflation as a surprise. And so I think some FOMC members extrapolated that strength in inflation going forward and therefore thought fewer rate cuts were appropriate. But Chair Powell also said other FOMC members incorporated expectations about potential changes in policy, which we inferred to mean changes about tariffs, immigration policy, maybe additional fiscal spending. And so whether they bake that in as explicit assumptions or just saw it as risks to the outlook, I think that these were the two main factors. So either just momentum in inflation or views on policy rate changes, which could lead to greater inflation going forward.Matthew: So Mike, what were your expectations going into this meeting and how did yesterday's outcome change Morgan Stanley's outlook for Federal Reserve policy next year and the year thereafter?Michael: We are a little more comfortable with inflation than the Fed appears to be. So we previously thought the Fed would be cutting rates three times next year and doing all of that in the first half of the year. But we have to listen to what they're thinking and it appears that the bar for rate cuts is higher. In other words, they may need more evidence to reduce policy rates. One month of inflation isn't going to do it, for example. So what we did is we took one rate cut out of the forecast for 2025. We now only look for two rate cuts in 2025, one in March and one in June.As we look into 2026, we do think the effect of higher tariffs and restrictions on immigration policy will slow the economy more, so we continue to look for more rate cuts in 2026 than the Fed is projecting but obviously 2026 is a long way away. So in short, Matt, we dialed back our assumptions for policy rate easing to take into account what the Fed appears to be saying about a higher bar for comfort on inflation before they ease again.So Matt, if I can actually turn it back to you: how, if at all, did yesterday's meeting, and what Chair Powell said, change some of your key forecasts?Matthew: So we came into this meeting advocating for a neutral stance in the bond market. We had seen a market pricing that ended up being more in line with the outcome of the meetings. We didn't expect yields to fall dramatically in the wake of this meeting, and we didn't expect yields to rise dramatically in the wake of this meeting. But what we ended up seeing in the marketplace was higher yields as a result of a policy projection that I think surprised investors somewhat and now the market is pricing an outlook that is somewhat similar to how the Fed is forecasting or projecting their policy rate into the future.In terms of our treasury yield forecasts, we didn't see anything in that meeting that changes the outlook for treasury markets all that much. As you said, Mike, that in 2026, we're expecting much lower policy rates. And that ultimately is going to weigh on treasury yields as we make our way through the course of 2025. When we forecast market rates or prices, we have to think about where we are going to be in the future and how we're going to be thinking about the future from then. And so when we think about where our treasury yield's going to be at the end of 2025, we need to try to invoke the views of investors at the end of 2025, which of course are going to be looking out into 2026.So when we consider the rate policy path that you're projecting at the moment and the factors that are driving that rate policy projection - a slower growth, for example, a bit more moderate inflation - we do think that investors will be looking towards investing in the government bond market as we make our way through next year, because 2026 should be even more supportive of government bond markets than perhaps the economy and Fed policy might be in 2025.So that's how we think about the interest rate marketplace. We continue to project a 10 year treasury yield of just about three and a half percent at the end of 2025 that does seem a ways away from where we are today, with the 10 year treasury yield closer to four and a half percent, but a year is a long time. And that's plenty of time, we think, for yields to move lower gradually as policy does as well. On the foreign exchange side. The dollar we are projecting to soften next year, and this would be in line with our view for lower treasury yields. For the time being, the dollar reacted in a very positive way to the FOMC meeting this week but we think in 2025, you will see some softening in the dollar. And that primarily occurs against the Australian dollar, the Euro, as well as the Yen. We are projecting the dollar/yen exchange rate to end next year just below 140, which is going to be quite a move from current levels, but we do think that a year is plenty of time to see the dollar depreciate and that again links up very nicely with our forecast for lower treasury yields.Mike, with that said, one more question for you, if you would: where do things stand with inflation now? And how does this latest FOMC signal, how does it relate to inflation expectations for the year ahead?Michael: So right now, inflation has been a little bit stronger than we and I think the Fed had anticipated, and that's coming from two sources. One, hurricane-related effects on car prices. So the need to replace a lot of cars has pushed new and used car prices higher. We think that's a temporary story that's likely to reverse in the coming months. The more longer term concern has been around housing related inflation, or what we would call shelter inflation. The good news in that is in November, it took a marked step lower. So I do think it tells us that that component, which has been holding up inflation, will continue to move down. But as we look ahead to your point about inflation expectations, the real concern here is about potential shifts in policy, maybe the implementation of tariffs, the restriction of immigration.We as economists would normally say those should have level effects or one-off effects on inflation. And normally I'd have a high confidence in that statement. But we just came out of a very prolonged period of higher than normal inflation, so I think the concern is repetitive, one-off shocks to inflation, lead inflation expectations to move higher. Now, we don't think that will happen. Our outlook is for rate cuts, but this is the concern. So we think inflation moves lower. But we're certainly watching the behavior of inflation expectations to see if our forecast is misguided.Matthew: Well, great Mike. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Mike: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Nov 8, 2024 – Well, you'd have to be living under a rock to not know what drove the markets this week. The election results and the policy decision from the Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday were key players in moving stocks and bonds...

We read the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting so you don’t have to! Kai Ryssdal explains why an interest rate cut in September is looking more and more likely. Plus, how the Ozempic boom is changing the cost of workplace insurance plans. And, Chicago’s hottest dance club is at the … Democratic National Convention?! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee” from the Federal Reserve “Workplace insurance could soon be stripped down” from Axios “The FTC's noncompete agreements ban is blocked” from The Verge “The DNC roll call featured a musical salute to each state. Here’s what your state chose” from NPR “‘Crowd' size

We read the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting so you don’t have to! Kai Ryssdal explains why an interest rate cut in September is looking more and more likely. Plus, how the Ozempic boom is changing the cost of workplace insurance plans. And, Chicago’s hottest dance club is at the … Democratic National Convention?! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee” from the Federal Reserve “Workplace insurance could soon be stripped down” from Axios “The FTC's noncompete agreements ban is blocked” from The Verge “The DNC roll call featured a musical salute to each state. Here’s what your state chose” from NPR “‘Crowd' size

We read the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting so you don’t have to! Kai Ryssdal explains why an interest rate cut in September is looking more and more likely. Plus, how the Ozempic boom is changing the cost of workplace insurance plans. And, Chicago’s hottest dance club is at the … Democratic National Convention?! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee” from the Federal Reserve “Workplace insurance could soon be stripped down” from Axios “The FTC's noncompete agreements ban is blocked” from The Verge “The DNC roll call featured a musical salute to each state. Here’s what your state chose” from NPR “‘Crowd' size