Podcasts about Federal Open Market Committee

Shares in Japan fluctuated at the open while those in South Korea and Australia were flat Wednesday after the S&P 500 snapped a six-day rally. Treasuries were steady in early Asian trading after jumping the most in a month in the prior session. In the US, Federal Reserve policymakers are largely expected to hold interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting at the conclusion of their July 29-30 gathering. Dissents from one or more officials could send the message that some members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee prefer to reduce borrowing costs sooner rather than later. We preview Thursday's FOMC decision with Mark Heppenstall, President and CIO at Penn Mutual Asset Management. Plus - US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks and Trump will make the final call on any extension. Adding an extra 90 days is one option, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Meantime, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that the world economy will keep weakening and remains vulnerable to trade shocks even though it is showing some resilience to Donald Trump's tariffs. We break down the latest trade headlines with Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. He speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on The Asia Trade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research strategists recap a golden week for the S&P 500, share LPL Research's latest thoughts on the economy, and preview one of the busiest weeks in recent memory. Stocks rose last week, sending the S&P 500 Index to more new highs. A trade agreement with Japan and solid earnings results were among the positive catalysts that kept the impressive rally going. The strategists explain that the economy's second quarter rebound follows a first quarter suppressed by a surge in imports from businesses front-running tariff threats. The subsequent rebound in growth might create a perception of a strong recovery—likely a head fake. The whiplash in trade policy adversely impacts official economic data and makes it difficult for investors to discern whether the economy is genuinely rebounding or merely experiencing short-term fluctuations. Next, the strategists preview a very busy week ahead. The highlight of the week will likely be the Fed's press conference on Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep rates unchanged as the Committee remains in wait-and-see mode. However, we might see some dissents in the statement, plus updates on potential tariff impacts from the Chair during the press conference. This week also brings trade negotiations with China, a federal court ruling on the legal basis for many of the Trump administration's tariffs, a huge week of earnings with over 160 S&P 500 companies reporting, and several top-tier economic data points including second quarter GDP, July payrolls, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, and monthly consumer spending. Tracking: #775339

What is the Fed, and why does Jerome Powell seem to have Wall Street on speed dial? This week, the “Henssler Money Talks” hosts unpack the power and purpose of the Federal Reserve—who runs it, who appoints them, and how their decisions ripple through everything from Treasury bonds to your credit card APR. We break down the rates the Fed actually controls and why those moves matter. Plus, if the Fed is supposed to be independent, why does it feel like politics—especially Trump's calls for lower rates—are always lurking in the background?Original Air Date: July 26, 2025Read the Article: https://www.henssler.com/short-term-demands-vs-long-term-goals-the-feds-balancing-act

The long-awaited trade deal between the EU and the US only provided a temporary boost to the markets, with concerns swiftly being voiced in Europe. Many described the agreement as one-sided, favouring US interests. Following the announcement, the US dollar strengthened while the price of gold plummeted to a three-week low. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, driven by the trade deal and President Trump's renewed pressure on Russia. Attention now turns to US monetary policy, with the Federal Open Market Committee commencing its two-day meeting today. Joining us on the show to discuss the implications of last week's European Central Bank decision and provide insight into this week's rate decision in the US is our Chief Economist, David Kohl.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:12) - Central Banks and Trade Deals: David Kohl, Chief Economist (12:26) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

What is the Fed, and why does Jerome Powell seem to have Wall Street on speed dial? This week, we unpack the power and purpose of the Federal Reserve—who runs it, who appoints them, and how their decisions ripple through everything from Treasury bonds to your credit card APR. We break down the rates the Fed actually controls (spoiler: it's not all of them) and why those moves matter. Plus, if the Fed is supposed to be independent, why does it feel like politics—especially Trump's calls for lower rates—are always lurking in the background?Next, we ask, “Is the upper middle class having an identity crisis?” We dig into the surprising squeeze on America's “comfortably wealthy.” From overcrowded Amex lounges to bidding wars for average homes, we explore how rising wealth—especially among the top 10%—is making luxury feel less exclusive. We explore what it means for expectations around lifestyle and status, and how the wealth ladder is getting more crowded at the top.In Part 1 of our series on the evolution of payments, we dive into the rise of credit cards and how they reshaped the way we spend. We explore the move toward a cashless society—fueled by digital wallets and tap-to-pay tech—but also spotlight the pushback: small businesses are passing credit card fees onto customers, and even some places going cash-only. So where are we really headed? Is cash dying, or just evolving?Join hosts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, Director of Research, and Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Kelly-Lynne Scalice, a seasoned communicator and host, on Henssler Money Talks as they explore key financial strategies to help investors navigate market uncertainty.Henssler Money Talks — July 26, 2025  |  Season 39, Episode 30Timestamps and Chapters8:27: Third of the Way Through Earnings Season19:58: The Fed's Big Influence 32:03: Too Many Millionaires, Not Enough Pool Chairs54:13: From Cash to Tap: How Credit Cards Changed EverythingFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Henssler Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial.

As Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends next year, our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discusses the potential policy impact of a so-called “shadow Fed chair”.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. And today – well, there's a topic that's stirring up a lot of speculation on Wall Street and in Washington. It's this idea of a Shadow Fed Chair. It's Monday, July 21, at 2 PM in New York. Let's start with the basics. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term expires in May of next year. And look at any newspaper that covers the economy or markets, and you will see that President Trump has been critical of monetary policy under Chair Powell. Those facts have led to a flurry of questions: Who might succeed Chair Powell? When will we know? And—maybe most importantly—how should investors think about these implications? President Trump has been clear in his messaging: he wants the Fed to cut rates more aggressively. But even though it seems clear that there will be a new Chair in June of next year, market pricing suggests a policy rate just above 3 percent by the end of next year. That level is lower than the current Fed rate of 4.25 [percent] to 4.50 [percent], but not aggressively so. In fact, Morgan Stanley's base case is that the policy rate is going to be even a bit lower than market pricing suggests. So why this disconnect? First, although there are several names that have been floated by media sources, and the Secretary of the Treasury has said that a process to select the next Chair has begun, we really just don't know who Powell's successor would be. News reports suggest we will get a name by late summer though. Another key point, from my perspective, is even when Powell's term as Chair ends, the Fed's reaction function—which is to say how the Fed reacts to incoming economic data—well, it's probably not going to change overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee, or the FOMC, makes policy and that policy making is a group effort.  And that group dynamic tends to restrain sudden shifts in policy. So, even after Powell steps down, this internal dynamic could keep policy on a fairly steady course for a while. But some changes are surely coming. First, there's a vacancy on the Fed Board in January. And that seat could easily go to Powell's successor—before the Chair position officially changes.  In other words, we might see what people are calling a Shadow Chair, sitting on the FOMC, influencing policy from the inside.Would that matter to markets?Possibly. Especially if the successor is particularly vocal and signals a markedly different stance in policy.  But again, the same committee dynamics that should keep policy steady so far might limit any other immediate shifts. Even with an insider talking. As importantly, history suggests that political appointees often shed their past affiliations once they take office, focusing instead on the Fed's dual mandate: maximum sustainable employment and stable prices.But there are always quirky twists to most stories: Powell's seat on the Board doesn't actually expire when his term as Chair ends. Technically, he could stay on as a regular Board member—just like Michael Barr did after stepping down as the Vice Chair for Supervision. Now Powell hasn't commented on all this, so for now, it's just a thought experiment. But here's another thought experiment: the FOMC is technically a separate agency from the Board of Governors. Now, by tradition, the chair of the board is picked by the FOMC to be chair of the FOMC, but that's not required by law. In one version of the world, in theory, the committee could choose someone else. Would that happen?  Well, I think that's unlikely. In my experience, the Fed is an institution that has valued orthodoxy and continuity. But it's just a reminder that rules aren't always quite as rigid as they seem. And regardless, the Chair of the Fed always matters. While the FOMC votes on policy, the Chair sets the tone, frames the debate, and often guides where consensus ends up. And over time, as new appointees join the Board, the new Chair's influence will only grow. Even the selection of Reserve Bank Presidents is subject to a Board veto, and that would give the Chair indirect sway over the entire FOMC.Where does all of this leave us? For now, this Shadow Chair debate is more of a nuance than the primary narrative. We don't expect the Fed's reaction function to change between now and May. But beyond that, the range of outcomes starts to widen more and more and more.  Until then, I would say the bigger risk to our Fed forecast isn't politics. It's our forecast for the economy—and on that front we remain, as always, very humble. Well, thanks for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen; and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, Mark Thornton breaks down the political pressure from Trump, market demands for cheap money, and the Federal Reserve's real fears: a collapsing dollar, rising inflation, and soaring long-term rates. Mark traces the history of interest rate manipulation, the precarious state of US debt, and why Chairman Powell may be clinging to high rates—not for the public good, but to save face before his 2026 exit. With the dollar weakening and deficits exploding, Mark explains why the next crisis could be just one rate cut away.Additional Resources"Trump Is Wrong about Interest Rates" by Ryan McMaken (Radio Rothbard Podcast): https://mises.org/MI_129_A"Will Fed Cut Rates By 3%? Is Massive Inflation Returning? Economist Steve Hanke Answers": https://mises.org/MI_129_B"Federal Funds Effective Rate": https://mises.org/MI_129_C"Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index": https://mises.org/MI_129_D"Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis": https://mises.org/MI_129_E"Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 17–18, 2025" (PDF): https://mises.org/MI_129_F"US FOMC Meeting Minutes (June 17-18, 2025)" by Ksenia Bushmeneva: https://mises.org/MI_129_GRegister for the 2025 Mises Institute Supporters Summit in Delray Beach, Florida, October 16–18: https://mises.org/ss25Be sure to follow Minor Issues at https://Mises.org/MinorIssues

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee met, and didn't cut the overnight rate. This even though its economic projections were far from robust. Somewhat frustratingly, the Fed reported it thinks the long-term growth rate for the US economy is around 1.8%. This is well less than the historical average, and would cause our deficit to balloon even more than forecast. Further, the President's tariff wars appear to have the Fed spooked, as it now thinks inflation will hit 3.0% by the end of the year. All told, the Fed meeting this week was something of a downer. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Fed meeting and how no one should be fired up about it.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets later this week, and it's pretty likely they'll examine why tariffs didn't drive inflation up in May. The good news? A slew of economic data coming out this week could clear things up, and help them make an interest rate decision. Also in this episode: Other central banks have June meetings on the books, domestic steel production ramps up under tariffs — but steel jobs don't — and Halloween came early this year. Like, really early.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets later this week, and it's pretty likely they'll examine why tariffs didn't drive inflation up in May. The good news? A slew of economic data coming out this week could clear things up, and help them make an interest rate decision. Also in this episode: Other central banks have June meetings on the books, domestic steel production ramps up under tariffs — but steel jobs don't — and Halloween came early this year. Like, really early.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

In this week's episode we unpack three reports about the labor market; the mixed results show an uptick in new job openings amid increasing initial weekly unemployment claims, though the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. We also discuss the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report, which shows elevated levels of consumer and commercial uncertainty ahead of the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As always, we analyze how this news is affecting the equity and fixed income markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:07 – The Fed's Beige Book shows mixed growth across districts, and an increasing degree of policy and economic uncertainty.02:59 – We introduce two reports about jobs and payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and another report from the Department of Labor on unemployment.06:20 – Putting the news of the week in context of the overall uncertainty caused by the question of tariffs and trade policy.07:24 – Equities appear to be on an upward trajectory calling the old “Sell in May and go away” adage into question.10:05 – The Magnificent 7 companies' stocks take diverging paths resulting from tariffs or noise from the Beltway.12:10 – The bond market reacts to the nonfarm payroll news, while traders ease their expectations of future rate cuts.13:27 – Treasury yields moved higher, though buyers remain standoffish amid the continuing debate on the U.S. fiscal deficit and tax policy.15:27 – Credit spreads show an optimistic outlook, especially on corporate issuances.16:31 – In a reversal of the historic norm, global central banks made moves to cut rates rather than following the U.S. Fed's example.Additional ResourcesJoin our June 11 National CallKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

Jon Hartley and Randal Quarles discuss Randy's career as a lawyer and in policy (including his time as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Regulation) and topics such as the global financial crisis, Glass-Steagall, banking regulation, lender of last resort, Basel III, the Dodd-Frank Act, capital requirements, the potential relaxation of Treasuries in the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), deposit insurance after the Silicon Valley Bank regional banking crisis, and stablecoin regulation. Recorded on May 29, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Randal Quarles is the Chairman and co-founder of The Cynosure Group.  Before founding Cynosure, Mr. Quarles was a long-time partner of the Carlyle Group, where he began the firm's program of investments in the financial services industry during the 2008 financial crisis. From October 2017 through October 2021, Mr. Quarles was Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, serving as the system's first Vice Chairman for Supervision, charged specifically with ensuring stability of the financial sector.  He also served as the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (“FSB”) from December 2018 until December 2021; a global body established after the Great Financial Crisis to coordinate international efforts to enhance financial stability. In both positions, he played a key role in crafting the US and international response to the economic and financial dislocations of COVID-19, successfully preventing widespread global disruption of the financial system.  As FSB Chairman, he was a regular delegate to the finance ministers' meetings of the G-7 and G20 Groups of nations and to the Summit meetings of the G20.  As Fed Vice Chair, he was a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the body that sets monetary policy for the United States. Earlier in his career, Mr. Quarles was Under Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, where he led the Department's activities in financial sector and capital markets policy, including coordination of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. Before serving as Under Secretary, Mr. Quarles was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, where he had a key role in responding to several international crises.  Mr. Quarles was also the U.S. Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund, a member of the Air Transportation Stabilization Board, and a board representative for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. In earlier public service, he was an integral member of the Treasury team in the George H. W. Bush Administration that developed the governmental response to the savings and loan crisis. Jon Hartley is currently a Policy Fellow at the Hoover Institution, an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, a Research Fellow at the UT-Austin Civitas Institute, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center. Jon is also the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast, an official podcast of the Hoover Institution, a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and the chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a Fixed Income Portfolio Construction and Risk Management Associate and as a Quantitative Investment Strategies Client Portfolio Management Senior Analyst and in various policy/governmental roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star, among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper.  ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics.

In this week's episode, we review the news from Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, highlighting four themes: a slower path to rate cuts; rising risk of policy dilemma and potential stagflation; decisions will be made based on data, not any pre-committed timelines; a policy bias towards easing but with less conviction. Overall economic indicators remain stable, setting us up for a peaceful weekend to celebrate the mothers in our lives this Mother's Day.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:57 – Weekly initial unemployment claims ending May 3 came in at 228,000, leveling out last week's larger than average increase, signaling that unemployment remains stable. 02:25 – The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Report showed a tenth consecutive month of expansion in April, and effectively for the past five years. This further contrasts with the weak manufacturing economy. 03:17 – News from Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee, during which the Fed maintained its current target rate of 4.25% to 4.50%, citing ongoing economic uncertainties especially from recent trade policies. We explore four key themes to level set future expectations. 10:18 – Due to the Fed's cautious wait-and-see approach, and given the Trump administration's 90-day pause on tariffs, the Fed will likely not make any significant decisions prior to its July 30 meeting. 11:04 – A potential trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom may inform what we can expect on overall trade policy going forward.  13:19 – Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 are hovering around or above their respective 200-day averages, signaling continuing improvement after the Liberation Day fallout. 16:40 – News from Apple and Google appear to validate the idea that Artificial Intelligence is disrupting industry writ large, and a future with a new list of “Magnificent Seven” stocks may come sooner than later. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Is Jay Powell's Job at Risk, and What Are the Risks for Investors? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn 

On today's podcast: 1) President Trump is expected to unveil a limited trade deal with the UK this morning and hints at a new tension point in trade talks with China. The UK deal is likely to focus on reducing tariffs on cars and steel, and may include discussions on tech, AI, and digital trade, but will come with significant caveats and may not be a comprehensive trade pact. 2) Fed Chair Jay Powell says he won't be rushed into lowering interest rates. Powell says he won't lower borrowing costs until there's more certainty on the direction of trade policy, which will have to come from the White House. The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady and said the risks of seeing higher inflation and unemployment had risen due to uncertainty over trade policy and tariffs. 3) The White House plans to get rid of Biden-era chip export restrictions. The repeal would provide fresh opportunities for other countries to negotiate their own chip access, influenced by investment promises or broader trade and diplomatic considerations, while measures targeting China would remain in place.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equities all closed higher overnight after a volatile session as the Federal Reserve signalled that the risks for an economic slowdown and higher prices are increasing. The Dow Jones gained 0.7%, boosted by a nearly 11% jump in Disney shares following their fiscal second quarter report which saw a surprising increase in subscriber numbers. The S&P500 gained 0.43% while the Nasdaq gained 0.27%.Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee held its held its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December. Rates were held steady, with officials adopting a wait-and-see approach amid growing fears of economic stagnation fuelled by President Trump's tariffs.European markets all closed in the red with corporate earnings the main focus for investors. The STOXX600 closed 0.5% lower.Locally yesterday, the ASX200 gained 0.33% with energy and real estate in the lead, while healthcare and tech were the only two sectors to close in the red.What to watch today:The SPI futures are suggesting our local market will rise slightly, up 0.1% at the open this morning.In commodities,Crude oil is trading almost 2% lower at US$57.93 per barrel, hovering near four-year lows due to muted optimism ahead of upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as officials adopt the wait-and-see approach on tariffs.The price of gold is 1.07% lower at US$3,364.21 an ounce with the rising risks of both inflation and unemployment, reinforcing a cautious stance on future rate adjustments.And iron ore is up 0.7% at US$99.33 per tonne.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter maintain a BUY rating on Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) with a 12- month price target of $7.00. At BGA's current share price of $5.93, this implies 18% share price growth in a year.And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $3.75 to the range of $4.21 - 4.31 over 33 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

There's been a lot of talk over the past few weeks about the economy and a word that keeps coming up is ... uncertainty.  President Trump's changing tariff policies have made it difficult for businesses and consumers to plan. Stock markets here and abroad have plunged and then recovered some ground and then dropped again. Many of us have questions about what's happening and how the uncertainty could affect prices, our jobs and savings.   MPR News host Angela Davis talks about the economy with Neel Kashkari, the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Later in the hour, she talks with a financial advisor about how to manage your money during stock market swings and an unsettled job market. Guests: Chris Farrell is senior economics contributor for MPR News and Marketplace. Neel Kashkari is the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. He serves as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee which sets the nation's monetary policy. Ross Levin is the founder of Accredited Investors Wealth Management in Edina. And he is a regular columnist for the Minnesota Star Tribune. 

Inflation - Transitory again.. April 2 dealing approaching! Doctor Copper! Mag 7 = Lag 7 A New Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - Inflation - Transitory again - End of month - March not so good for US Markets - investors may try to squeeze toward the end - Tariff waves - now there is talk of softening - April 2 is the day - next Wednesday. - A restaurant Chain at ALL-TIME highs.... - Turkey - Market Mayhem - An fun Limerick from a Listener Markets - Doctor Copper! - Mag 7 = Lag 7 - Tesla Woes- Stock bouncing but challenges still remain - March Sadness for Markets... Attention Collectors!  - The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by the end of the month above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000. -  Put your address and size in the comments Tariff Day - April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on - Why April 2nd? Why not April 1st?????? --- Worried that is April Fool's day and no one would take them seriously? Copper Prices - 45 year high - What is this? Usually a predictor of the economic conditions - - Seems like a little inflation (China also pumping) - FYI - An average single-family home contains roughly 439 pounds (or 200 kilograms) of copper, primarily in wiring, plumbing, appliances, and hardware Doctor Copper What about Coffee? - Chart - Cents per pound - These increases are driven by climate-related impacts on major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, as well as financial speculation in the market - DOUBLE THE PRICE of last year Coffee Prices Housing Prices - Reports that tariff induced panic is prices of raw materials is pushing prices up - Developers are not going to get behind and this may push prices up - on average $10,000 per new home (at least) Powell on Inflation - Back to Transitory - In his latest speech/commentary last week, he hinted that he believes that the current - During his post-decision press conference last Wednesday, Powell said tariff-induced inflation could be “transitory,” or temporary. - Here we go again! Stagflation Anyone? - Fed sees higher inflation and an economy growing by less than 2% this year - The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee downgraded its collective outlook for economic growth to 1.7%, down from the last projection of 2.1% in December. In the meantime, officials hiked their inflation outlook, seeing core prices growing at a 2.8% annual pace, up from the previous estimate of 2.5%. - In a statement, the FOMC noted the "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased," adding that the central bank is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate." Meanwhile... - The 3-month Treasury rate inverted against the 10-year for a bit earlier this month. - Currently they are locked at the same rate... - This is the Fed's "preferred" measure of the potential for a recession in the future. Boeing - Boeing wins $20-billion contract for Next Generation Air Dominance program - Win comes after Boeing annual loss, strike, other setbacks - On the news, Boeing's shares rise, Lockheed's fall - Lockheed has been plagued by delays in F-35 upgrade - New name of the aircraft? The F-47 ! New-Clear Energy - A nuclear power plant on the shores of Lake Michigan is aiming to make history this fall by becoming the first reactor in the U.S. to restart operations after shutting down to be eventually dismantled.

Law and Tax Considerations for Agriculture Federal Open Market Committee Announcement Bulls Versus Cows Body Condition Scoring   00:01:05 – Law and Tax Considerations for Agriculture: Roger McEowen, K-State and Washburn law professor, starts the show as he talks about potential issues for farmers and ranchers involving trade or business activity, basis, like-kind exchanges and croppers. Trade or Business; Income Tax Basis; Cropper; and Like-Kind Exchanges Article on AgManager.info   00:12:05 – Federal Open Market Committee Announcement: K-State's Brady Brewer and Brian Briggeman keep the show moving as they discuss the Federal Open Market Committee rate announcement. The pair breaks down what it means, what other factors could be at play and its impact to agriculture.   00:23:05 – Bulls Versus Cows Body Condition Scoring: The Beef Cattle Institute's Brad White, Brian Lubbers and Phillip Lancaster conclude the show with part of their Cattle Chat podcast. They converse about body condition scores for bulls versus cows. BCI Cattle Chat Podcast Bovine Science with BCI Podcast Email BCI at bci@ksu.edu     Send comments, questions or requests for copies of past programs to ksrenews@ksu.edu.   Agriculture Today is a daily program featuring Kansas State University agricultural specialists and other experts examining ag issues facing Kansas and the nation. It is hosted by Shelby Varner and distributed to radio stations throughout Kansas and as a daily podcast.   K‑State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well‑being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K‑State campus in Manhattan

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded yesterday afternoon; Fed Chaiman Jerome Powell gave his views on the economy; Kevin has the details and offers his insights. China's Commerce head: "There are no winners in a trade war": Kevin looks at what was said and not said. China partially renews US meat export permits, Kevin explains what this means and how it affects China U.S. trade relations. With fuel tax revenues down, States look to fund roads, Kevin explains and offers a solution. Oil reacts to the Energy Information Agency reporting U.S. crude inventories rising more than expected and distillate inventories falling; Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of violating a ceasefire agreement; the Federal Reserve's comments on the economy; continued U.S attacks on the Houthis in Yemen and Israel's resuming ground operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip.

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded yesterday afternoon; Fed Chaiman Jerome Powell gave his views on the economy; Kevin has the details and offers his insights. China's Commerce head: "There are no winners in a trade war": Kevin looks at what was said and not said. China partially renews US meat export permits, Kevin explains what this means and how it affects China U.S. trade relations. With fuel tax revenues down, States look to fund roads, Kevin explains and offers a solution. Oil reacts to the Energy Information Agency reporting U.S. crude inventories rising more than expected and distillate inventories falling; Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of violating a ceasefire agreement; the Federal Reserve's comments on the economy; continued U.S attacks on the Houthis in Yemen and Israel's resuming ground operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip.

Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates steady at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Federal Open Market Committee confirmed this decision, unchanged since December. Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would wait for more clarity on economic policies, especially regarding tariffs. Analysts noted that the current rate maintenance was anticipated and highlighted the need for clearer guidance from upcoming FOMC meetings. Some experts cautioned that rising tariffs and inflation might restrict future rate cuts. Fed policymakers revised forecasts, projecting a GDP growth rate of 1.7% for the year and an unemployment rate increase to 4.4%.Learn more on this news visit us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On today's show we are talking about why the Fed is so disconnected from the other central banks around the world. Only a few short months ago, you would regularly hear that the historically low interest rates of the 2010's were a thing of the past and we can't expect to see them again in our lifetime. Well, we are not far from those rates again, except in the good old US of A. The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting this week and we can expect the rate announcement this afternoon. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates constant at this week's meeting with the market having priced in a 96% chance of no rate change at all. Many of the other central banks around the world are trending to historically low rates again. Is the Fed out of touch? ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

In this episode on Certificates of Deposit (CDs) as investments, we talk about the nuanced decision-making involved in purchasing CDs and whether or not CDs are good investments, particularly in a rising interest rate environment, and we explain why interest rates are the only factor you need to consider. Wealth creation isn't solely dependent on CD rates, and we need to consider the impact of inflation and interest rates to gain a comprehensive financial perspective. The episode also explores how government strategies to combat inflation by adjusting interest rates impact not only investors, but also shape the attractiveness of CDs as an investment option. In a rising interest rate environment, buying CDs may seem like a good idea but it depends on your needs and goals. Wealth isn't created by buying a CD based on a rate. It's created by understanding why the rate may not be all that important. Banks look at what is known as the federal funds rate, also known as a benchmark rate. This is the rate banks charge one another to borrow money overnight that's needed to maintain reserve requirements. Upstream in the decision making process is the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC, who meet throughout the year to discuss and set monetary policy. Within these policies, rates are set and typically linked to inflation. When those rates are set, banks may adjust rates on loans, deposits and certificates of deposit. But just like any business, banks will adjust rates to compete in their market as they seek to cover their costs and maintain a profit. CDs specifically are an attractive tool for banks, because unlike a deposit account, CDs actually lock up customers with a maturity date, which gives banks better control of their cash flow. The higher rates draw in customers seeking to maximize their returns. Rates on CDs matter, but not as much when you factor in inflation and interest rates. If inflation is at 7% and interest rates are at 5%, the net is 2%. The same is true if inflation is at 0% and interest rates are at 2%. You have to look at both numbers to get a full picture. When you consider the gridlock within the housing market and the amount of debt our government holds, it's hard to believe rates can remain elevated over the long term. The government is desperately trying to combat inflation by raising rates. These higher rates not only impact consumers, but they also impact the government. According to the Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, in June of 2023, they projected that annual net interest costs on the federal debt would total $663 billion in 2023 and almost double over the next decade. Interest payments would total around $71 trillion over the next 30 years, taking up to 35% of all federal revenue by 2053. These numbers are impacted by interest rates and with lower rates come lower interest payments, so the government has reasons to see rates lower than they currently are. The question is: Does it make sense to lock in CD rates while rates are high? It depends. If you have money sitting in a bank account that you don't need and the CD rate is offering a higher rate than your savings, then it might be a good option. A good idea is to compare CD rates to other options like fixed annuities and money markets since they share some similarities but also have a few key differences that could make one choice better for your situation. Certificates of Deposit are offered by banks as a savings account that offers a fixed interest rate over a specified period of time, ranging from one month up to five years. They carry penalties if funds are removed before maturity, and they're FDIC insured up to $250,000. Fixed Rate annuities are issued by insurance companies and are financial products that offer a fixed interest rate over a specified period of time. Early withdrawals can incur a penalty, and interest earnings are tax deferred until you start taking distributions. The guarantees are backed by the claims paying ability of the insurance company and are insured by what is known as the State Guarantee Association. Money markets are funds issued by financial institutions that are backed by highly liquid short maturity investments. Maturities usually range from overnight to just under a year, and assets can be quickly converted to cash with minimal loss of value. They are generally considered more risky than a bank, CD or insurance company annuity, and the underlying investments include such things as treasury bills, commercial paper and CDs. While CDs offer the safety of fixed returns, they are not devoid of risks and limitations. It's essential to understand both the micro and macro economic factors that affect CD rates before diving in.      Mentioned in this episode: BrianSkrobonja.com Common Sense Financial Podcast on YouTube  Common Sense Financial Podcast on Spotify BrianSkrobonja.com/Resources - Free Resources To Help You Protect Your Financial Future Common Sense: YOUR Guide to Making Smart Choices with YOUR Money by Brian Skrobonja “What to Know About How Banks Work” The State Guaranty Association   References for this episode: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/americans-faith-in-banks-hit-low-after-failures-says-ap-norc-poll https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm https://fortune.com/recommends/banking/will-cd-rates-go-up https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html https://www.pgpf.org/analysis/2023/07/higher-interest-rates-will-raise-interest-costs-on-the-national-debt   Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. This is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual's situation. Securities offered only by duly registered individuals through Madison Avenue Securities, LLC. (MAS), Member FINRA &SIPC. Advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through Skrobonja Wealth Management (SWM), a registered investment advisor. Tax services offered only through Skrobonja Tax Consulting. MAS does not offer Build Banking or tax advice. Skrobonja Financial Group, LLC, Skrobonja Wealth Management, LLC, Skrobonja Insurance Services, LLC, Skrobonja Tax Consulting, and Build Banking are not affiliated with MAS.

Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor. The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates. And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen. What should we expect from the policies this Administration intends to pursue? Will Jerome Powell march to the President's demands? Or will he flex to assert the Fed's independence? And where does inflation figure into all of this? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

“I'd like to invite members of the Federal Open Market Committee to hop on LinkedIn and to read about the plight of so many of those who are out of work,” says Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research. In our 2025 Outlook Series, Booth sits down with Daniela Cambone to share the growing concerns over the disconnect between Fed policy and the challenges faced by everyday Americans in the labor market. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

Text us your financial questions!Henssler Money Talks — January 11, 2025  Season 39, Episode 2 This week on "Money Talks," Director of Research Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, is joined by Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, to weigh in on the ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing indices, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover for November, and the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting and what they indicated for future rate cuts. The experts had an open discussion on the Social Security Fairness Act that eliminates the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset for federal and municipal government employees. In this week's case study, D.J. and K.C. talk about how they frequently find themselves stepping into the role of a mediator or “marriage counselor” when helping couples navigate emotionally charged financial topics. The episode finishes with the hosts responding to listeners' questions on senior marriages that could eliminate some Social Security benefits and how to determine what holdings to trim for required minimum distributions.Timestamps and Chapters00:00: Market Roundup: Jan. 6 – Jan. 10, 202518:15: Open Discussion: Social Security Fairness Act27:14: Case Study:  Navigating Emotional Financial Topics39:20: Q&A Time: Intel Corp., and Trading HoursFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureGermany's economy is falling apart. [CB] are purchasing gold, the most in 14 months. Oklahoma Senator says Bitcoin has gone mainstream. The Federal Reserve is now setting up the narrative that inflation will rise if Trump implements his policies. Right on schedule. The [DS] is now setting up the narrative for a [FF]. They are doing what ever they can to make the transition as difficult as possible. The [DS] is now planning to delay the confirmation hearing and they will use every trick in the book. The CA fires are to funnel money and destroy evidence and it's a narrative shift. The problem with everything [DS] is doing is that Trump has all the leverage, game over.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Germany Faces Highest Number Of Bankruptcies Since Great Financial Crisis Germany is bracing for a sharp rise in bankruptcies this year, with an anticipated 25–30 percent increase compared to 2024, reaching levels not seen since the 2009 financial crisis. In 2024, 364 major companies with annual revenues exceeding €10 million filed for bankruptcy — a 30 percent increase over the previous year. This marks a stark contrast to 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic when 292 such companies went bankrupt. The hardest-hit sectors include automotive suppliers, mechanical engineering, construction, and healthcare.   Automotive suppliers have been identified as the most at-risk sector for insolvency in 2025, with one in six major bankruptcies in 2024 stemming from this industry. The transition to electric vehicles, declining car production, and weaker demand in key markets like China have exposed cracks in the sector's foundation.   The construction industry took a heavy hit last year, with bankruptcies rising by 53 percent.  Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1877127164719423792  Poland, Turkey, India, and China were the major buyers during this period. This trend continues to support gold prices which are up 28% since the beginning of 2024. Central banks can't get enough gold. https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1877391549501264043 Federal Reserve Officials Sound Inflation Warning… Over Trump's Policies   Federal Reserve officials  sounded the alarm on inflation over Trump's policies related to tariffs and immigration. CNBC reported: Federal Reserve officials at their December meeting expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump's policies could have, indicating that they would be moving more slowly on interest rate cuts because of the uncertainty, minutes released Wednesday showed. Without calling out Trump by name, the meeting summary featured at least four mentions about the effect that changes in immigration and trade policy could have on the U.S. economy. Since Trump's November election victory, he has signaled plans for aggressive, punitive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada as well as the other U.S. trading partners. In addition, he intends to pursue more deregulation and mass deportations. However, the extent of what Trump's actions will be and specifically how they will be directed creates a band of ambiguity about what is ahead, which Federal Open Market Committee members said would require caution. https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1854617758895325185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1854617758895325185%7Ctwgr%5E8e409946574174b6243eee5ce85223e94ae2ecf5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.

(AURN News) — We're getting a closer look at how the Federal Reserve views current economic conditions and how it may affect Americans moving forward. The Fed reported continued solid economic expansion in 2024, despite some easing in labor market conditions, according to minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "The information available at the time of the meeting indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) had continued to expand at a solid pace in 2024. Labor market conditions had eased since early 2024, but the unemployment rate remained low. Consumer price inflation was below its year-earlier rate but was still somewhat elevated," the minutes said. The Fed's analysis showed temporary fluctuations in employment data due to external factors but overall they believe the labor market remains stable. "The staff estimated that job gains were held down by the effects of labor strikes and hurricanes in October and were boosted by a similar amount in November after those effects unwound. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent in November, and both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio moved down a bit further,” the meeting notes mentioned. But when it comes to race, there are some important notes: “The unemployment rates for African Americans and for Hispanics also moved up, and both rates were above those for Asians and for Whites," according to the minutes. Looking ahead, the Fed maintained a positive outlook while acknowledging various uncertainties. "The staff projection at the December meeting was for economic conditions to stay solid. Given the elevated uncertainty regarding specifics about the scope and timing of potential changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies and their potential effects on the economy, the staff highlighted the difficulty of selecting and assessing the importance of such factors for the baseline projection and featured a number of alternative scenarios," the notes said. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From bringing inflation under control to maintaining a strong labor market, the eventful year that was 2024 gave Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic much to do as a monetary policymaker. Bostic joins the Economy Matters podcast to discuss the past year and how he approached his work.

This week on the Open House Podcast, Mark and Corey react to the Federal Open Market Committee's recent rate cute and discuss employment trends in Rochester, NY with Jill Knittel, President of JK Executive Strategies.

Text us your financial questions!Henssler Money Talks — December 21, 2024  Season 38, Episode 51This week on "Money Talks," Director of Research Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, is joined by Managing Associates D.J. Barker, CWS®, and K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA to cover the market's volatile week, November's Retail Sales, and the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy meeting. The experts shared insights about alternative investments and how they can work in a relatively conservative portfolio. They also elaborated on the pros and cons of holding alternative investments. Timestamps and Chapters00:00: Market Roundup: Dec. 16 — Dec. 20, 202424:28: Case Study:  Alternative InvestmentsFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy joins our Chief U.S. Economist to discuss the Fed's recent rate cut and why persistent inflation is likely to slow the pace of future cuts.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew: Today, we're going to talk about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the path for rates from here.It's Thursday, December 19th at 10a.m. in New York.The FOMC meeting concluded yesterday with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point, marking the third rate cut for the year. This move by the Fed was just as the consensus had anticipated. However, in its meeting yesterday, the Fed indicated that 2025 rate cuts would happen at a slower pace than investors were expecting. So Mike, what are committee members projecting in terms of upcoming rate cuts in 2025 and 2026?Michael: Yeah, Matt, the Fed dialed back its expectations for policy rate easing in both 2025 and 2026. They now only look for two rate cuts of 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, which would bring the funds rate to 3.9% and then only another 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the policy rate to 3.4%. So a major dialing back in their expectations of rate cuts over the next two years.Matthew: What are the factors that are driving what now appears to be a slightly less dovish view of the policy rate?Michael: Chair Powell mentioned, I think, two things that were really important. One, he said that many committee members saw recent firmness in inflation as a surprise. And so I think some FOMC members extrapolated that strength in inflation going forward and therefore thought fewer rate cuts were appropriate. But Chair Powell also said other FOMC members incorporated expectations about potential changes in policy, which we inferred to mean changes about tariffs, immigration policy, maybe additional fiscal spending. And so whether they bake that in as explicit assumptions or just saw it as risks to the outlook, I think that these were the two main factors. So either just momentum in inflation or views on policy rate changes, which could lead to greater inflation going forward.Matthew: So Mike, what were your expectations going into this meeting and how did yesterday's outcome change Morgan Stanley's outlook for Federal Reserve policy next year and the year thereafter?Michael: We are a little more comfortable with inflation than the Fed appears to be. So we previously thought the Fed would be cutting rates three times next year and doing all of that in the first half of the year. But we have to listen to what they're thinking and it appears that the bar for rate cuts is higher. In other words, they may need more evidence to reduce policy rates. One month of inflation isn't going to do it, for example. So what we did is we took one rate cut out of the forecast for 2025. We now only look for two rate cuts in 2025, one in March and one in June.As we look into 2026, we do think the effect of higher tariffs and restrictions on immigration policy will slow the economy more, so we continue to look for more rate cuts in 2026 than the Fed is projecting but obviously 2026 is a long way away. So in short, Matt, we dialed back our assumptions for policy rate easing to take into account what the Fed appears to be saying about a higher bar for comfort on inflation before they ease again.So Matt, if I can actually turn it back to you: how, if at all, did yesterday's meeting, and what Chair Powell said, change some of your key forecasts?Matthew: So we came into this meeting advocating for a neutral stance in the bond market. We had seen a market pricing that ended up being more in line with the outcome of the meetings. We didn't expect yields to fall dramatically in the wake of this meeting, and we didn't expect yields to rise dramatically in the wake of this meeting. But what we ended up seeing in the marketplace was higher yields as a result of a policy projection that I think surprised investors somewhat and now the market is pricing an outlook that is somewhat similar to how the Fed is forecasting or projecting their policy rate into the future.In terms of our treasury yield forecasts, we didn't see anything in that meeting that changes the outlook for treasury markets all that much. As you said, Mike, that in 2026, we're expecting much lower policy rates. And that ultimately is going to weigh on treasury yields as we make our way through the course of 2025. When we forecast market rates or prices, we have to think about where we are going to be in the future and how we're going to be thinking about the future from then. And so when we think about where our treasury yield's going to be at the end of 2025, we need to try to invoke the views of investors at the end of 2025, which of course are going to be looking out into 2026.So when we consider the rate policy path that you're projecting at the moment and the factors that are driving that rate policy projection - a slower growth, for example, a bit more moderate inflation - we do think that investors will be looking towards investing in the government bond market as we make our way through next year, because 2026 should be even more supportive of government bond markets than perhaps the economy and Fed policy might be in 2025.So that's how we think about the interest rate marketplace. We continue to project a 10 year treasury yield of just about three and a half percent at the end of 2025 that does seem a ways away from where we are today, with the 10 year treasury yield closer to four and a half percent, but a year is a long time. And that's plenty of time, we think, for yields to move lower gradually as policy does as well. On the foreign exchange side. The dollar we are projecting to soften next year, and this would be in line with our view for lower treasury yields. For the time being, the dollar reacted in a very positive way to the FOMC meeting this week but we think in 2025, you will see some softening in the dollar. And that primarily occurs against the Australian dollar, the Euro, as well as the Yen. We are projecting the dollar/yen exchange rate to end next year just below 140, which is going to be quite a move from current levels, but we do think that a year is plenty of time to see the dollar depreciate and that again links up very nicely with our forecast for lower treasury yields.Mike, with that said, one more question for you, if you would: where do things stand with inflation now? And how does this latest FOMC signal, how does it relate to inflation expectations for the year ahead?Michael: So right now, inflation has been a little bit stronger than we and I think the Fed had anticipated, and that's coming from two sources. One, hurricane-related effects on car prices. So the need to replace a lot of cars has pushed new and used car prices higher. We think that's a temporary story that's likely to reverse in the coming months. The more longer term concern has been around housing related inflation, or what we would call shelter inflation. The good news in that is in November, it took a marked step lower. So I do think it tells us that that component, which has been holding up inflation, will continue to move down. But as we look ahead to your point about inflation expectations, the real concern here is about potential shifts in policy, maybe the implementation of tariffs, the restriction of immigration.We as economists would normally say those should have level effects or one-off effects on inflation. And normally I'd have a high confidence in that statement. But we just came out of a very prolonged period of higher than normal inflation, so I think the concern is repetitive, one-off shocks to inflation, lead inflation expectations to move higher. Now, we don't think that will happen. Our outlook is for rate cuts, but this is the concern. So we think inflation moves lower. But we're certainly watching the behavior of inflation expectations to see if our forecast is misguided.Matthew: Well, great Mike. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Mike: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

(AURN News) — The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, while emphasizing continued vigilance over inflation that remains above the central bank's 2% target. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the economy's resilience amid the rate decision. "Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace," Powell said, noting that "GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, about the same pace as in the second quarter." The Federal Open Market Committee's move comes amid mixed economic signals. While consumer spending remains strong and business investment has improved, Powell pointed out that "activity in the housing sector has been weak." In explaining their approach to future policy decisions, Powell stressed the delicate balance the Fed must maintain. "We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment," he said. The Federal Reserve's official statement indicates that future decisions will be based on comprehensive economic data. "The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments," the Fed stated. Markets initially responded negatively to the announcement on Wednesday, but stocks rebounded in Thursday morning trading. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4.25% to 4.5%. This marks the third interest rate cut for the year, following reductions of 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in November. The decision came after assessment of economic risks and inflation by the Federal Open Market Committee. Lower rates typically lead to reduced borrowing costs for consumer loans, including credit cards and personal loans. However, experts indicate that the recent rate cut will not impact mortgage rates, which currently stand at an average of 7.13% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. Factors like rising 10-year Treasury bonds influence mortgage rates, leading to a lag in lower residential loan rates. Future rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data.Learn more on this news visit us at: https://greyjournal.net/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nov 8, 2024 – Well, you'd have to be living under a rock to not know what drove the markets this week. The election results and the policy decision from the Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday were key players in moving stocks and bonds...

The time has finally come for the Fed to make a move on lowering interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee announced a half-point rate cut after their two-day September policy meeting! That's after immense speculation on whether it would be a quarter point or a half point cut.  Hi I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Just a quick call-out for listeners to participate in our book launch. We're hosting a virtual preview of our book, Scaling Smart, on the 21st. It's all about building a profitable business that doesn't rob you of your free time. Please sign up for the free book launch party at the link in the show notes below or at newsforinvestors.com.  LINKS: ~~~~SCALING SMART BOOK

E.J. Antoni, PhD, Economist and Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, explains why the Fed's plan to cut interest rates won't solve deeper economic problems—such as runaway government borrowing and record deficits—that threaten American financial stability. He uncovers how the Fed is at loggerheads with the US Treasury, creating a dangerous conflict between monetary and fiscal policy that exacerbates inflation, unemployment, and high credit costs, impacting American households. E.J. joins Wealthion's Andrew Brill as part of our special coverage of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee this week, highlighting the urgent need for fiscal restraint and coordinated reform to align monetary and fiscal policy and prevent a profound economic crisis. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com/free   Don't miss Wealthion's LIVE coverage of the Fed with Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake! Tomorrow, September 18, at 2 pm ET. Chapters: 00:51 - Federal Budget Concerns 03:11 - Economic Reality vs. Official Data For The Average American 05:45 - U.S. Credit Card Debt: A Hidden Crisis 08:43 - Will Fed Rate Cuts Help or Hurt? 18:08 - Fed vs. Treasury: A Policy Clash 23:02 - EJ's Fed Policy Outlook 26:14 - The Real Employment Situation 32:33 - How to Tackle Inflation 46:15 - Energy Policy: Key to Recovery? 48:49 - Why Good Policies Aren't Adopted Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Economy #Fed #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #GovernmentDebt #MonetaryPolicy #USEconomy #EJAntoni #MarketAnalysis #FOMC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On today's show we are talking about a globally synchronized economic slowdown.  Canada reported its employment numbers late last week and the Canadian unemployment rate rose to 6.6%, the highest level in 7 years. We reported last week that the  We got the latest employment report for the US on Friday. The BLS reported numbers for the month of August. But at the same time that they reported August, they revised the numbers for June and July.  The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, and the change for July was revised down by 25,000, from +114,000 to +89,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 86,000 lower than previously reported. The bureau also reported that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July. This reversal in the unemployment rate could affect the size of interest rate cut that is expected to be announced on September 18 when the Federal Open Market Committee meet on the 17th and 18th of this month.  ----------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Last week in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the "time has come for policy to adjust". World markets now have a 100% probability expectation that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut at the upcoming September meeting. In the words of Nick Timiraos, chief economist for the Wall Street Journal and suspected media mouthpiece for the Federal Reserve, "The Powell pivot is complete". Is that indeed the case? And if so, what should we expect from here from the speed and depth of rate cuts? What will the expected impacts be on the economy? And which ones will be felt soon, and which perhaps not for quarters from now? And lastly, is this the correct policy move the Fed should be pursuing? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr Hoenig at https://www.discoursemagazine.com/ or https://www.finregrag.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

We read the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting so you don’t have to! Kai Ryssdal explains why an interest rate cut in September is looking more and more likely. Plus, how the Ozempic boom is changing the cost of workplace insurance plans. And, Chicago’s hottest dance club is at the … Democratic National Convention?! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee” from the Federal Reserve “Workplace insurance could soon be stripped down” from Axios “The FTC's noncompete agreements ban is blocked” from The Verge “The DNC roll call featured a musical salute to each state. Here’s what your state chose” from NPR “‘Crowd' size

We read the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting so you don’t have to! Kai Ryssdal explains why an interest rate cut in September is looking more and more likely. Plus, how the Ozempic boom is changing the cost of workplace insurance plans. And, Chicago’s hottest dance club is at the … Democratic National Convention?! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee” from the Federal Reserve “Workplace insurance could soon be stripped down” from Axios “The FTC's noncompete agreements ban is blocked” from The Verge “The DNC roll call featured a musical salute to each state. Here’s what your state chose” from NPR “‘Crowd' size

We read the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting so you don’t have to! Kai Ryssdal explains why an interest rate cut in September is looking more and more likely. Plus, how the Ozempic boom is changing the cost of workplace insurance plans. And, Chicago’s hottest dance club is at the … Democratic National Convention?! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee” from the Federal Reserve “Workplace insurance could soon be stripped down” from Axios “The FTC's noncompete agreements ban is blocked” from The Verge “The DNC roll call featured a musical salute to each state. Here’s what your state chose” from NPR “‘Crowd' size

Text us your financial questions!Henssler Money Talks — August 3, 2024 Season 38, Episode 31 This week on "Money Talks," Research Analyst Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA is joined by Senior Associate Michael Griffin, CFP®, and Associate Clay Norman, CFP®, to analyze the week's stock market trends, discuss the Fed's monetary policy meeting, and review the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence survey. Michael and Clay provide some recommendations for a couple who don't need the funds from their required minimum distributions to pay living expenses. They discuss charitable contributions, Roth conversions, and reinvestment options. The financial experts finish the show with a listener's question on diversification in their 401(k). Timestamps and Chapters 00:00 Market Roundup: July 29 – August 2, 2024 22:47 Case Study:  When RMDs are Not Needed for Living Expenses 35:10 Q&A Time: 401(k) Diversification Follow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Mary C. Daly leads the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and will deliver remarks on monetary policy and the economy followed by Q&A. In 2024, Dr. Daly became a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Daly assumed leadership of the San Francisco Fed in October 2018, building on a distinguished career at the Bank that began in 1996. Starting as an economist specializing in labor market dynamics and economic inequality, she has since served as research advisor, vice president and head of macroeconomics, senior vice president and assistant director of research, and executive vice president and director of research. In Partnership with The San Francisco Press Club.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 25th, 2024... what the Fed meeting minutes are telling us about inflation, how much single-family homes are shrinking, and which cities are attracting millennials.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Before we get started, I want to invite you to join me in San Antonio for our property tour on June 8. We will be meeting with a builder there who has brand new duplexes and 4plexes for sale, and is willing to buy down the interest rate for our Real Wealth investors. You can get the details at newsforinvestors.com, just sign up for a free membership and click on the Connect tab for info on our tours. See you there!   Now let's begin with economic news from this past week. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last monetary policy meeting show that officials are becoming more concerned about a lack of progress on inflation. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee noted that inflation has come down a lot over the past year but is currently stalled. Several expressed a willingness to raise rates further if necessary, although some Fed officials, including Fed Chief Jerome Powell, have said publicly that they don't think their next move will be a rate hike. Short-term rates have been in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% since July of last year...   ...That's it for today. You can read more about the stories in this episode by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/fed-minutes-may-2024-.html   2 - https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-rates-inflation-prices-loans-economy-64f3d844d7bef34e6c184be7e242b29f   ​​3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/fed-officials-seem-to-have-no-idea-about-inflation-strategist-says-.html   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-again-to-215-000-strong-labor-market-fuels-u-s-economy-0b866f13?mod=search_headline   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-dip-as-builders-feel-the-toll-of-higher-mortgage-rates-caf7f9f5?mod=mw_latestnews   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-supply-hits-highest-level-since-october-2021-but-home-sales-dip-a5fb0a81?mod=mw_latestnews   7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/05/new-single-family-home-size-decline-continues/   9 - https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/news/industrial/google-to-open-1m-sf-distribution-center-north-of-fort-worth-124343   10 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-cities-becoming-popular-millennials-184648436.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAI_Cm2MsSRUD17lSNhW1SE6dmtDy882DSNC4V8y9sCfZIJzm3gBlfCiZ62ExlnllnHZDIkYzIfjFns47s-9llclGmcNpb9wkAPAJpwcF0mmC4DPQo9Wg8OsOLAdHW9jaF8yucA1DLiko_moOkuxT4FxqoZhj-GBllMlT9FDm7_i5

Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes Cruise anyone? Global Warming - New Info In PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM - The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes - Cruise anyone? - Global Warming - New Info In Market Update - 40,000 ! Then we fail - Fed Officials Hawkish behind closed doors - BBQFlation - Split Excitement! - Hindenburg Omen Fed - Two Faced - Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. - Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. - The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. BBQFlation - Your Memorial Day barbecue will cost upward of 10 percent more than it did this time last year according to Datasembly - Datasembly follows the cost of groceries across the country every week. Its recently released data points to this year's Memorial Day festivities costing the average American family about $30.18 or 10.19% more than 2023. - Burgers jumped from $7.04 in 2023 to $8.07 in 2024, or a change of 14.63% in cost. Hamburger buns cost two cents more, from $3.04 on average to $3.06. Hindenburg Omen - Indicator was triggered last week. - only right about 25% of the time - Was thought to be able to predict market crashes - let's see what happens. FED HEAD - The Federal Reserve should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday. - Asked what conditions were needed for the Fed to cut rates once or twice this year, Kashkari said: “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it's appropriate to dial back.” - He said the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails to come down further. “I don't think we should rule anything out at this point,” Kashkari added. Could we finally get relief from these thieves? - The U.S. Department of Justice is suing to break up Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, over alleged antitrust violations. - The lawsuit, joined by 30 states and filed Thursday, follows a DOJ investigation into whether Live Nation maintains a monopoly in the ticketing industry, a probe launched in 2022 and bolstered by fan complaints following a botched roll out for tickets to Taylor Swift's Eras tour. - In a statement, Live Nation said the DOJ's allegations of a monopoly are "absurd." - "The DOJ's complaint attempts to portray Live Nation and Ticketmaster as the cause of fan frustration with the live entertainment industry. It blames concert promoters and ticketing companies—neither of which control ticket prices—for high ticket prices. It ignores everything that is actually responsible for higher ticket prices, from increasing production costs to artist popularity, to 24/7 online ticket scalping that reveals the public's willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost," said Dan Wall, Live Nation executive vice president for corporate and regulatory affairs. DONATIONS- New Shirt Design? Miracle Flights - The 1986 Air Carrier Access Act requires airlines to provide a wheelchair to passengers with disabilities at the airport. The problem: Many travelers are faking it,

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 4th, 2024… why the Fed is holding firm on interest rates, what economists are saying about consumer spending, and why a NY landlord may be forced to live in one of his poorly maintained buildings.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you want more helpful information about real estate, the housing market, and rental property investment, please sign up for a free RealWealth membership at newsforinvestors.com. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast!   We begin with economic news from this past week. The big headline came from the Federal Reserve. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep short-term rates right where they are, saying there's a “lack of further progress” on inflation. The federal funds rate has been within a range of 5.25 and 5.50% since July of 2023. There had been hope for a rate cut this spring but inflation has been inching higher instead of lower since the beginning of the year. The Fed wants to see a more sustainable decline toward the Fed's 2% target before it initiates a rate cut.   During his post-meeting speech, Fed Chief Jerome Powell emphasized that “inflation is still too high” and that the data has not given the central bank confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the target rate. But he did offer some assurance that it's unlikely that the Fed would be hiking rates at the next meeting. That triggered a lot of joy on Wall Street and a big stock rally. The Dow was up as much as 500 points at one point...    Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-rate-decision-may-2024-.html   2 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-may-fed-rate-decision.html 3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bowman-says-shes-still-willing-to-raise-rates-10c39c38?mod=mw_rss_topstories   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-inch-up-to-208-000-layoffs-still-extremely-low-7020b3f1?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-hit-new-all-time-high-case-shiller-says-in-the-face-of-economic-uncertainty-98aa35cc?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-posts-bigger-than-expected-drop-e0f15c88?mod=economic-report   7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/starbucks-mcdonalds-yum-earnings-show-consumers-pulling-back.html   9 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/jobs-report-april-2024-us-job-growth-totaled-175000-in-april.html   10 - https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news/multifamily/new-yorks-worst-landlord-indicted-on-80-counts-124094

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell sat down with “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal to discuss inflation expectations, the central bank’s political independence, and humility in the face of national crises. The chairman also talked about how he consults with members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, why he worries when interest rates are covered like a “horse race,” and more.

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell sat down with “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal to discuss inflation expectations, the central bank’s political independence, and humility in the face of national crises. The chairman also talked about how he consults with members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, why he worries when interest rates are covered like a “horse race,” and more.

Our Global Macro Strategist explains the complex nature of recent U.S. economic reports, and which figures should matter most to investors.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Macro Strategy. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll talk about what investors should take away from recent economic data. It's Thursday, February 29, at 4pm in New York.There's been a string of confusing US inflation reports recently, and macro markets have reacted with vigor to the significant upside surprises in the data. Before these inflation reports, our economists thought that January Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, or PCE inflation, would come at 0.23 per cent for the month. On the back of the Consumer Price Index inflation report for January, our economists increased their PCE inflation forecast to 0.29 per cent month-over-month. Then after the Producers' Price Index, or PPI inflation report, they revised that forecast even higher – to 0.43 per cent month-over-month. Today, core PCE inflation actually printed at 0.42 per cent - very close to our economists' revised forecast.That means the economy produced nearly twice as much inflation in January as our economists thought it would originally. The January CPI and PPI inflation reports seem to suggest that while inflation is off the record peaks it had reached, the path down is not going to be smooth and easy. Now, the question is: How much weight should investors put on this data? The answer depends on how much weight Federal Open Market Committee participants place on it. After all, the way in which FOMC participants reacted to activity data in the third quarter of 2023 – which was to hold rates steady despite encouraging inflation data – sent US Treasury yields sharply higher.Sometimes data is irrational. So we would take the recent inflation data with a grain of salt. Let me give you an example of the divergence in recent data that's just that – an outlying number that investors should treat with some skepticism. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, calculates two measures of rent for the CPI index: Owner's equivalent rent, or OER, and rents for primary residences. Both measures use very similar underlying rent data. But the BLS weights different aspects of that rent data differently for OER than for rents.OER increased by 0.56 per cent month-over-month in January, while primary residence rents increased 0.36 per cent month-over-month. This is extremely rare. If the BLS were to release the inflation data every day of the year, this type of discrepancy would occur only twice in a lifetime – or every 43 years.The confusing nature of recent economic data suggests to us that investors should interpret the data as the Fed would. Our economists don't think that recent data changed the views of FOMC participants and they still expect a first rate cut at the June FOMC meeting. All in all, we suggest that investors move to a neutral stance on the US treasury market while the irrationality of the data passes by.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.