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El investigador John Springford asegura que Europa debe aceptar su futuro como una sociedad multicultural y multiétnica o resignarse al estancamiento económico.
In this week's Centre for European Reform podcast Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, and the CER's Sander Tordoir and John Springford discuss green tech industrial policy and ‘de-risking' trade with China. They discuss the growing consensus between Europe and the US on China, as well as the ‘risks of de-risking' – how challenging China might slide into protectionism and weaken competition. John and Sander's paper on the effects of Chinese and American green tech subsidies on Europe can be read here: https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2023/europe-american-chinese-green-tech Produced by Octavia Hughes Music by Edward Hipkins
In this week's episode of the Centre for European Reform podcast, the CER's deputy director John Springford and professor at King's College London Jonathan Portes discuss their report 'Early impacts of the post-Brexit immigration system on the UK labour market'. The report estimates that Brexit has led to a net shortfall of 330,000 workers in the UK, concentrated in low-skilled sectors such as transportation and hospitality. They delve into the methods used to reach this figure and debate the potential benefits and drawbacks of sector-specific immigration rules to try to reduce labour shortages. Produced by Helmi Pillai Music by Edward Hipkins
In this week's episode of the Centre for European Reform podcast Helmi Pillai interviews John Springford about his most recent cost of Brexit analysis. John shares his estimate of the damage Brexit caused to the British economy in 2022 and explains the reasons for the negative impact. John also discusses the methodology behind his findings and responds to criticisms of his analysis. Produced by Helmi Pillai Music by Edward Hipkins
In this week's Centre for European Reform podcast, John Springford, our deputy director, and Sander Tordoir, senior economist at the CER, discuss the EU's fiscal rules. They consider why the rules matter, what their shortcomings are, and weigh up the European Commission's proposal for tweaking the current fiscal rulebook. Produced by Helmi Pillai and Rosie Giorgi Music by Edward Hipkins
In this week's Centre for European Reform podcast, our experts answered your questions. Our media co-ordinator Rosie Giorgi spoke to CER foreign policy director, Ian Bond, senior research fellow, Zach Meyers, and our deputy director, John Springford. They considered how Europe should protect its interests while maintaining a strong trading relationship with China, what the EU has planned in the way of tax reforms, and why the EU's banking union has stalled. Produced by Rosie Giorgi Music by Edward Hipkins
In this week's Centre for European Reform podcast, we considered the impact that Brexit has had on the UK economy so far. Our media co-ordinator Rosie Giorgi spoke to two economists: Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics, and John Springford, the CER's deputy director. They discussed and compared their findings on how Brexit has affected UK goods trade and inflation, and John shared his latest research on how Brexit has impacted GDP, investment and services trade. Read John's latest CER report: https://cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/cost-brexit-so-far Music by Edward Hipkins Produced by Rosie Giorgi
This week's CER podcast features speakers from our recent economics conference on ‘The politics of climate change' at Ditchley Park. Panellists included Suzi Kerr of the Environmental Defence Fund, the European Commission's Arianna Vanini, Beata Javorcik of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank's Stéphane Hallegate, whose remarks we included in the first half of this episode. They spoke about whether we needed tougher measures against laggard countries in the fight against climate change. They also discussed whether carbon border adjustment mechanisms would work, and how developing countries could be brought on board. In the second half of the podcast, Rosie Giorgi asked her CER colleagues Elisabetta Cornago and John Springford for their takes on CBAMs, climate clubs and more.
This week's CER podcast is the second episode in our ‘Ask CER' series, where our researchers answer questions that our listeners have asked. Our media co-ordinator and host Rosie Giorgi speaks to foreign policy director Ian Bond, research fellow Elisabetta Cornago and deputy director John Springford. They consider the EU's climate action policies; where its recovery fund has been a success and where it has fallen short; and transatlantic relations under Biden and in the context of Nord Stream 2. Music by Edward Hipkins Produced by Rosie Giorgi
This week European Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans spoke at a CER event on the EU's new carbon border adjustment mechanism, the Commission's plans for reform of the emissions trading scheme, and prospects for COP26. In this CER podcast episode, we provide you with an edited version of his remarks, with commentary from the CER's John Springford and Elisabetta Cornago. They discuss how the reforms might work and the stumbling blocks the Commission faces. Music by Edward Hipkins Produced by Rosie Giorgi
In this week's CER podcast, our deputy director John Springford speaks to Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics at King's College London and senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe. They discuss the links between pre-COVID austerity and the UK's poor pandemic outcomes, the outlook for recovery and the future of migration now that the UK has left the EU. Music by Edward Hipkins Produced by Rosie Giorgi
In this week's podcast episode, our deputy director John Springford speaks to Tomáš Valášek, Member of Slovak Parliament and former CER foreign policy director, who recently resigned from his position as chair of the European affairs committee over Bratislava’s decision to purchase the Russian Sputnik vaccine. Our senior research fellow Camino Mortera-Martínez and chief economist Christian Odendahl bring their views from EU capitals. They discuss the EU's shortcomings in rolling out the COVID-19 vaccine, and the impact this is having on European solidarity and domestic politics in Slovakia, Spain and beyond. Music by Edward Hipkins Produced by Rosie Giorgi
In the latest CER podcast episode, our chief economist Christian Odendahl is joined by Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, chief economist at the French Treasury, and our deputy director John Springford. They discuss the outlook for Europe's recovery and whether the EU recovery fund will stop it from petering out. Music by Edward Hipkins Produced by Rosie Giorgi
This week's CER podcast is the fourth of five episodes on the CER's annual economics conference, usually hosted at Ditchley Park but this year held as a webinar series. The podcast features Caroline Freund of the World Bank, Anu Bradford of Columbia University, Gabriel Felbermayr of the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, and Alan Beattie of the Financial Times. John Springford, CER's deputy director, also speaks to Soumaya Keynes, The Economist's trade and globalisation editor, about US trade policy and the Biden administration’s approach towards China. Produced by Rosie Giorgi Music by Edward Hipkins
European Union leaders will meet in Brussels on July 17-18 to discuss plans for a new recovery fund and long-term budget to help Europe bounce back from the COVID-19 crisis. The CER’s chief economist Christian Odendahl and deputy director John Springford discuss how the EU should spend the money.
The European Commission has presented its proposal for a recovery fund to help EU countries stimulate their economies and overcome the impact of the coronavirus.In this episode of The Agora, Nick Malkoutzis speaks to John Springford and Christian Odendahl from the Centre for European Reform think-tank about what kind of economic damage the pandemic will leave behind and how EU member states might overcome this setback.Nick also has a discussion with Greek economist and academic George Pagoulatos about what the Commission's proposal means for Europe, and Greece in particular. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
On 18th May, Merkel and Macron proposed a €500bn recovery fund for the EU. John Springford and Christian Odendahl discuss why it's needed, and whether reluctant countries will back it.
The new coronavirus has been spreading rapidly in Europe, and Italy has imposed strict constraints on movement to contain the outbreak there. Luigi Scazzieri, Christian Odendahl and John Springford discuss whether Italy’s policies will be enacted elsewhere, and how policy-makers can confront the economic fall-out from the epidemic.
The EU’s economic size is its main source of global power. But what are the consequences of the eurozone’s economic instability – and its large current account surplus – for the EU’s ability to act on the global stage? John Springford and Christian Odendahl discuss.
The UK economy is 2.9 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford talks to Beth Oppenheim about his final analysis in this series.
John Springford deciphers what has been happening in Westminster over the past week, and talks to Beth Oppenheim about what this means for the chances of a no-deal Brexit.
With Boris Johnson confirmed as the next U.K. prime minister, the outlook for the British economy has become murkier — and potentially more perilous.Johnson's comprehensive victory over Jeremy Hunt in the battle to lead the governing Conservative Party has made it more likely that Britain could leave the European Union on Halloween without a withdrawal agreement, leading to tariffs and broad disruptions to trade.Most economists think such a "no-deal" Brexit would cause a deep recession.Whether it would be as deep as the one after the global financial crisis — a contraction of more than 6% in the economy — no one knows, but almost all economists agree that jobs will be lost and the pound will slide.And its impact could sap business confidence more broadly: the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that a "no-deal" Brexit represents one of the key risks to the world economy.A "no-deal" Brexit means that on Nov. 1, tariffs will be slapped on goods traded between the U.K. and the remaining 27 EU countries. Other impediments to trade would be imposed, such as new restrictions on the movement of people and regulatory standards, including on Britain's crucial financial services sector. Britain would also face the prospect of losing trade deals the EU has struck over the years, including with Canada and Japan — these account for around 11% of U.K. trade.That raises the stakes for companies like the operator of the Channel Tunnel between Britain and France, which warned Tuesday that a no-deal Brexit is now "very likely." British business associations quickly issued statements after Johnson's election urging him to secure a deal.Richard Branson, the Virgin Group founder whose has gone from owning a record label to planning flights to space, is among the high-profile business leaders who have also spoken out publicly against a no-deal Brexit. He believes the pound will slump in value to be worth just a dollar for the first time ever.The currency has borne the brunt of Brexit uncertainty, falling more than 10% from $1.50 on the day after the June 2016 referendum. It's near two-year lows at $1.2450.Though both sides of the English Channel will suffer in a "no-deal" scenario, Britain would suffer more. British exports to the EU account for around 13% of the country's annual GDP, against around 3% of the GDP of the other 27 EU nations.Planning for a no-deal Brexit, which Johnson is expected to accelerate in his first days in 10 Downing Street, will help marginally.Measures such as stockpiling medicines, sourcing more products from outside the EU, or modifying road links in southeast England to manage freight traffic can help, but only up to a point."Planning is unlikely to do much to mitigate the short-term disruption of 'no deal'," said John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform.For one, he said, there is too little time to build new border and road infrastructure to reduce congestion at the Channel Tunnel and ferry crossings and on the highways that bring trucks up toward London.In his pitch to become prime minister, Johnson said he wants an agreement but that he would make sure Britain leaves the EU on Oct. 31.The U.K. Parliament is seemingly opposed to a "no-deal." Many Brexiteers have suggested that Johnson suspend parliament to allow Brexit to happen anyway. The implications of that would be unpredictable. Johnson has said he doesn't want to go down that path but hasn't ruled it out.Given these uncertainties, business executives are unsure how to plan and have reined in investment over the past two years. That's one of the main reasons why Britain's economy, which by some estimates is second only to Germany in Europe, has stuttered and talk of a recession has grown."With economic growth already faltering, a disorderly 'no-deal' Brexit could cause widespread disruption to trade, a sharply lower exchange rate, higher inflation and lower living standards," said Arno Hantzsche and Garry Y...
Beth Oppenheim talks to John Springford and Christian Odendahl about regional divergence across the EU. They discuss the political and economic consequences and possible policy solutions.
The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford talks to Beth Oppenheim about his latest analysis and draws some political lessons from the findings.
Beth Oppenheim asks John Springford what is in the 585 page withdrawal agreement, and Charles Grant outlines what might happen next: will Theresa May and her withdrawal plan survive?
The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford talks to Beth Oppenheim about his latest analysis, how he has refined his modelling method and the implications of the findings.
The UK economy is around 2 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford speaks to Sophia Besch about his analysis, his modelling method and the implications of the result.
Is Brexit just going in circles? With the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson, the only progress the negotiations seem to be making is – backwards (00:35). We also ask – are pit bulls really murderous dogs from hell (18:55)? And last, what does it mean to be English (29:50)? With James Forsyth, Paul Goodman, John Springford, Julia Lewis, Mary Wakefield, Harry Mount, and Yasmin Alibhai-Brown. Presented by Lara Prendergast. Produced by Cindy Yu.
Sophia Besch asks John Springford and Sam Lowe to lay out the arguments in favour and against a customs union between the UK and the EU after Brexit.
John Springford and Luigi Scazzieri argue that he EU needs to prioritise the development of a new neighbourhood policy, as a way of reducing both security threats and migration pressures.
Simon Tilford and John Springford lay out in detail how leaving the EU without a deal would damage the British economy.
John Springford talks to Matthew Goodwin, Paul Whiteley and Florence Faucher on the reasons the UK voted to leave, how these political trends played out in the French elections, and lessons for the EU 27.
John Springford talks to Sophia Besch about about the best possible trade deal between the UK and the EU after Brexit. Based on new empirical research into the costs of trade barriers he argues for a ‘Swiss style’ Brexit.
Simon Tilford and John Springford discuss the value of sterling and the impact on the economy and British politics.
CER experts John Springford and Camino Mortera-Martinez assess the credibility, legality and practical feasibility of political proposals to restrict the rights of EU migrants in the UK.
Sophia Besch talks to John Springford, Camino Mortera-Martinez and Ian Bond on what role the UK could play in the EU following a vote to stay in on June 23rd. This podcast refers to the recent policy brief 'Europe after Bremain: A strong team?' which can be read here.
John Springford explains the results from new research by the CER and Groningen University which shows that eurosceptic regions have the most to lose from a Brexit. He talks to Sophia Besch about euroscepticism and hostility to immigration in England’s regions outside of London and the South East – despite the fact that these regions sell more of their output to the EU.
Could Britain end up in the EEA? The CER couldn't agree, so we decided to have a debate between CER director Charles Grant and senior research fellow John Springford.
CER's Sophia Besch talks to CER director Charles Grant and senior research fellow John Springford about their take on David Cameron's EU deal at the February EU summit. Besch asks: What were David Cameron’s objectives going into the negotiations, what were his wins for Britain last week and where did he have to make concessions? How is this reform deal perceived in Brussels and in other European capitals? What does this deal mean for Britain in Europe and for Cameron's goal to sway his own party towards staying In? And finally, moving on from the Brussels deal, which issues will be discussed over the next months and how will the decision of Mayor Boris Johnson to support the Out campaign play into the debate?