Podcasts about labour market

This week on Wilson Weekly, Rachel Howlett and Doctor Andrew Wilson break down the key forces shaping Australia's property market as we head into the final stretch of the year.A stronger labour market, rising house building costs and a spring auction season overflowing with listings are giving buyers more choice than they've had in months. Doc unpacks what this means for affordability, seller competition and the broader economic outlook.Plus, we take a closer look at the data behind auction behaviour, construction pressures and how these trends are setting the tone as we move into December.Straight talk. Clear insights. Evidence based as always. Tune in to stay ahead of the market.Discover our new tool: What's My Rental Home Yield? Money Mentor YouTube Channel: ‪@moneymentorau‬ Link to Dr. Andrew Wilson on LinkedIn: / dr-andrew. If you enjoyed our podcast, make sure you follow and subscribe to stay up to date with the latest episodes.

Singapore stocks fell today, triggered by declining expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. This follows a wider regional rout after markets tumbled earlier this week on fears of an artificial intelligence bubble. In terms of counters to watch, we have ComfortDelGro, after the transport operator yesterday announced senior leadership changes, which included the creation of a new “point-to-point mobility officer” role. Elsewhere, from what the latest US labour market data mean for the Federal Reserve, to how Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet approved the largest round of extra spending since the pandemic, more international headlines remained in focus. Also on deck – comments by Foxconn chairman Liu Young that the company now had the capability to manufacture 1,000 artificial intelligence racks per week. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Benjamin Goh, Head of Research and Investor Education, SIAS.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The ASX200 rebounded this week after Nvidia's strong results eased fears of an AI-driven tech correction. Local wage data also helped steady sentiment, showing a cooler labour market without shifting rate expectations. Staples remain solid, while discretionary names are showing fresh momentum, prompting Bell Potter to rotate toward leaders like Woolworths (ASX:WOW), Endeavour (ASX:EDV), Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) and Accent Group (ASX:AX1).In this week's wrap, Sophia covers:(0:10): what was behind the ASX's slump(1:04): the impact of domestic economic data on the market trajectory(3:13): stocks Bell Potter's analysts favour at the moment(4:09): how the local market performed this week(5:07): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week(5:36): economic news items to look out for next week.

In America at the moment there is a lot of talk about the “K” shaped economy. Car dealers see it. If you have a good, safe job, good income and you're in the markets invested in AI (before it all pops) you are feeling good. You are the upward bit of the “K”. You're buying a flash new car with carbon add-ons. If you've been laid off, or about to be by a robot, you hate AI because you never earned enough to buy stock anyway and your SNAP payment hasn't come through because of the shutdown and you're holding onto your car, not to mention sweating on making ends meet, you are the downward bit of the “K”. It looks like we have a similar story here. Recruiters Robert Walters are already warning of the increased cost of labour in the recovery because people with the skills that are going to be in demand can charge more. Why? Because we are short of them. Why? Because the others are in Australia. In ideal times, as an economy recovers you hoover up those who have lost their jobs when times were tight. This time anyone who was marketable left and what we have, sadly, are a group of people who it would appear are not available to take part as growth returns. Yes, there are plenty of unemployed – 5.3% as of last week. Not to mention a growing number of so-called "underutilised". But as far as skills go, that's where we have an issue. Not everywhere or everyone of course. But it's becoming increasingly obvious that there are too many under-skilled, under-qualified people in this country. That is sadly what eventuates when you have system that spits kids out at 15, 16, or 17-year-old without a pathway to success. When times are good any number of people get swept up for bits and pieces-type jobs that lots of employers can afford to fork out on. But they are also the first to go. And when the rest of the talent bails, the ones without the skills aren't the ones to fill the growth areas, hence we will once again rely on imported labour, which this time around may or may not be available depending on whether they see us as a cool place to be. If they don't, that weighs on recovery and the speed at which we pick up. Robert Walters seem to suggest it's an issue. For those who stayed and have the skills though, you will be in a new car before you know it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 136 How do recruiters stay relevant in a gigafied labour market? #recruitmentnews

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including China's monthly data dump for October and labour market data from Australia and the UK.     Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance  This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.  This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.   The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer  The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.    

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Chinese data released over the weekend indicates their domestic economy is holding its own, and their export economy continues to thrive, despite Trump.But first a look ahead. Locally, we will get a fix on retail sales this week on Thursday with the release of the October electronic cards data, and possibly at the end of the week we will get the REINZ sales data.In Australia we will be looking for updates to their consumer sentiment surveys and the labour market data for October (where only modest changes are expected).In the US, the federal government shutdown is unlikely to be resolved, so the ADP Employment Report will take on extra importance and they are releasing this data weekly now. Earnings reports will keep coming. There will be important updates from Japan as well. And this is the week the Chinese release their monthly data dump, and they too are expected to show just modest changes.Over the weekend, China said its consumer prices rose +0.2% in October from a year ago, more than the expected no change and jumping back from the -0.3% decline in September. It was their first increase in consumer inflation since June and the fastest pace since January. Stronger than expected holiday spending probably cause the uptick. Food prices fell -1.6% on this annual basis, dairy products by -1.7%. But both beef and lamb prices rose by +5.6% and +2.4% respectively.Meanwhile, China's producer prices eased another -2.1% in October on the same basis, marginally less than the -2.3% drop in September and the softest decrease since August 2024. But it does extend their contraction for a 37th consecutive month. The result came in slightly better than market expectations of a -2.2% fall,And China reported that their October foreign exchange reserves swelled more than expected and are back to their highest level in a decade.China also said its exports dipped unexpectedly from October a year ago as shipments fell -18% to the US. Imports from the US fell even more. But other than that, it seems to be business-as-normal. Australia and New Zealand both recorded healthy trade surpluses with China in October. Overall, China's October trade surplus came in at +US$90 bln for the month, and missing many analysts expectations that it might top +US$100 bln as it did in August.In Taiwan, exports from the island nation surged +50% from October a year ago to a record high of US$62 bln, accelerating from a +34% rise in the previous month which itself was very impressive. Taiwanese exports were one fifth those of China, despite only having 1.6% of the population level. For reference, Australia's exports in October are expected to be reported on December 4 at US$30 bln - and Australia has a similar population to Taiwan. The comparison emphases how special the Taiwan export prowess is.In the world's largest economy, the November update of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has fallen to near an all-time low in a survey that began almost 80 years ago. Only the June 2022 recording was lower. A small dip was expected but this time a large dip was recorded. Americans are worried about both current personal finances and in year-ahead expected business conditions. It's glum reading and the index is now -30% lower than year-ago levels. American consumer attitudes are in a full bear mode.Meanwhile, the New York Fed's latest update of their Survey of Consumer Expectations reports inflation expectations dipped to 3.2% and some key opinions about their labour market weakened.The US federal government shutdown continues with the White House unable to get its way in the Senate, either with the Democrats changing their healthcare bottom line, or the Republicans adoption the 'nuclear option'. And that means the air traffic restrictions are rolling out and become more pervasive. Thousands of flights have now been cancelled or delayed.In Canada, they delivered something of an unexpected positive surprise from their labour market in October, You may recall the unusually strong +60,000 September jobs gain, driven by very strong full-time employment. Analysts had expected a pause. But in fact, they reported a +67,000 jobs gain in October, although this one was largely driven by a rise in part-time jobs. Rather than the expected rise, their jobless rate fell (but by most standards, it is still pretty high).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.09%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time, down -2 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at fractionally under US$4000/oz, down -US$5 from this time Saturday, basically back to week-ago levels.American oil prices are slightly firmer from Saturday at just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price still just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.3 USc, and up +10 bps from Saturday but down a full -1c for the week. That is its lowest level in seven months. Against the Aussie we are -10 bps lower at 86.5 AUc and that is a 12 year low. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.8 and firmish from yesterday, but its lowest since July 2009, a 16 year low.The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,678 and up +1.5% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Todd Rabold, Investment Management Partner, Callan Family Office, discusses the market's pullback and ongoing concerns about high valuations in the AI space; what a 22-year high for layoffs in October could mean for Fed policy; the Supreme Court's hearing on the legality of trade tariffs; and his overall outlook through year-end. Produced & Presented by: Emaad Akhtar See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Economic Growth Minister's confident the economy will turn a corner soon. Unemployment's reached 5.3% in the September quarter – the highest it's been since 2016. 160 thousand Kiwis have been out of work and looking for a job, the most since 1994. Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking unemployment may rise further this quarter, but there are positives, like the increase in hours worked and a move from part time to full time work. She says these unemployment figures do bounce around a bit, so she certainly won't say unemployment is at its peak. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Future of Employment in Africa: Demography, Labor Markets and Welfare explores the major trends that will define the face of the sub-Saharan continent in the next three decades. The near doubling of Africa's population by 2050 will lead to more than twenty million new job seekers entering the African labor market every year until then. Right now, Africa doesn't seem able to offer jobs to this many people, resulting in possible unrest and intra-African or intercontinental migration flows, including to Europe. Climate change creates additional migratory pressure as it threatens the future of agriculture and livestock. The author explores the opportunities for increased job creation in Africa. Fortunately, Africa has some major strengths. Africans excel in market-creating innovation: the ability to see market opportunities and innovations that others do not. Many Africans create their own jobs through micro and small enterprises. A young well-trained middle class, familiar with digital technologies, is emerging. Africa's abundant natural resources attract global powers like China aspiring to secure access to critical raw materials. The author challenges pessimistic message about the continent and provides an optimistic view of Africa's future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

The Future of Employment in Africa: Demography, Labor Markets and Welfare explores the major trends that will define the face of the sub-Saharan continent in the next three decades. The near doubling of Africa's population by 2050 will lead to more than twenty million new job seekers entering the African labor market every year until then. Right now, Africa doesn't seem able to offer jobs to this many people, resulting in possible unrest and intra-African or intercontinental migration flows, including to Europe. Climate change creates additional migratory pressure as it threatens the future of agriculture and livestock. The author explores the opportunities for increased job creation in Africa. Fortunately, Africa has some major strengths. Africans excel in market-creating innovation: the ability to see market opportunities and innovations that others do not. Many Africans create their own jobs through micro and small enterprises. A young well-trained middle class, familiar with digital technologies, is emerging. Africa's abundant natural resources attract global powers like China aspiring to secure access to critical raw materials. The author challenges pessimistic message about the continent and provides an optimistic view of Africa's future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/african-studies

The Future of Employment in Africa: Demography, Labor Markets and Welfare explores the major trends that will define the face of the sub-Saharan continent in the next three decades. The near doubling of Africa's population by 2050 will lead to more than twenty million new job seekers entering the African labor market every year until then. Right now, Africa doesn't seem able to offer jobs to this many people, resulting in possible unrest and intra-African or intercontinental migration flows, including to Europe. Climate change creates additional migratory pressure as it threatens the future of agriculture and livestock. The author explores the opportunities for increased job creation in Africa. Fortunately, Africa has some major strengths. Africans excel in market-creating innovation: the ability to see market opportunities and innovations that others do not. Many Africans create their own jobs through micro and small enterprises. A young well-trained middle class, familiar with digital technologies, is emerging. Africa's abundant natural resources attract global powers like China aspiring to secure access to critical raw materials. The author challenges pessimistic message about the continent and provides an optimistic view of Africa's future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/african-studies

The Future of Employment in Africa: Demography, Labor Markets and Welfare explores the major trends that will define the face of the sub-Saharan continent in the next three decades. The near doubling of Africa's population by 2050 will lead to more than twenty million new job seekers entering the African labor market every year until then. Right now, Africa doesn't seem able to offer jobs to this many people, resulting in possible unrest and intra-African or intercontinental migration flows, including to Europe. Climate change creates additional migratory pressure as it threatens the future of agriculture and livestock. The author explores the opportunities for increased job creation in Africa. Fortunately, Africa has some major strengths. Africans excel in market-creating innovation: the ability to see market opportunities and innovations that others do not. Many Africans create their own jobs through micro and small enterprises. A young well-trained middle class, familiar with digital technologies, is emerging. Africa's abundant natural resources attract global powers like China aspiring to secure access to critical raw materials. The author challenges pessimistic message about the continent and provides an optimistic view of Africa's future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

Unemployment's set to edge higher despite signs of the job market improving. Stats NZ data, due out this morning, is expected to show the unemployment rate reached 5.3% in the September quarter. That's up from 5.2% in the June quarter. Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon told Mike Hosking the unemployment rate would be even higher if more young people were in the labour market. He says they've been first on the chopping block as the economy slowed, so many have gone back into school and aren't seeking work. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Future of Employment in Africa: Demography, Labor Markets and Welfare explores the major trends that will define the face of the sub-Saharan continent in the next three decades. The near doubling of Africa's population by 2050 will lead to more than twenty million new job seekers entering the African labor market every year until then. Right now, Africa doesn't seem able to offer jobs to this many people, resulting in possible unrest and intra-African or intercontinental migration flows, including to Europe. Climate change creates additional migratory pressure as it threatens the future of agriculture and livestock. The author explores the opportunities for increased job creation in Africa. Fortunately, Africa has some major strengths. Africans excel in market-creating innovation: the ability to see market opportunities and innovations that others do not. Many Africans create their own jobs through micro and small enterprises. A young well-trained middle class, familiar with digital technologies, is emerging. Africa's abundant natural resources attract global powers like China aspiring to secure access to critical raw materials. The author challenges pessimistic message about the continent and provides an optimistic view of Africa's future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's rise in unemployment isn't unexpected. Latest Stats NZ data shows the unemployment rate has reached an almost nine-year high of 5.3% in the September quarter. 160 thousand people have been looking for a job, while another 138 thousand have been wanting more work. The Herald's Liam Dann told Kerre Woodham today's figures are exactly as forecast by economists. He says the labour market will remain tough for a while yet because companies are nervous to hire, and some are still having to let staff go. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Fed is meeting but flying blind on both inflation and jobs data. But other indications suggests the US economy is fading faster than previously assumed.In the US oil patch, the Dallas Fed said service sector activity contracted further in October with the revenue index, a key measure of service sector conditions, falling to its lowest reading since July 2020. Employers are shedding jobs, they notedThings weren't great in the mid-Atlantic states region but not as tough as in Texas. The Richmond Fed's factory survey contracted less in October than September, but they also reported employers shedding jobs.Despite those two reports, the ADP Employment Report indicated that private payrolls rose an average of +14,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending on October 11, as they move to fill the labour market data void because of the BLS shutdown. If that pace holds for October, US jobs growth in the month will be about +57,000 and better than the -32,000 in September decline. Both are unusually low levels. (In October 2023, the US reported +186,000 job gains, so they have fallen a long way since then.)Also not as negative as expected is US consumer sentiment as measured by the Conference Board. It did ease lower in October, but not as low as some had feared although it is now at a six month low. Those on low incomes (under US$75,000/year) or over 55 years were more negative than those 35-55 and on higher incomes.But overnight a range of large employers announced job cuts. UPS said it has shed -48,000 jobs, Amazon -14,000. They aren't the only ones. On top of the US Federal Government furloughs, they are facing some significant labour market strainThe Fed will likely deliver a -25 bps rate cut tomorrow.Across the Pacific, South Korea said its economy grew +1.7% real in Q3-2025 from the same quarter in 2024, building on a widening expansion. Over the past year, all of their growth has come in Q2 and Q3-2025.Chinese president Xi and US president Trump are due to meet to try and work out a trade accommodation. It will be ironic that Trump can compromise with another dictator, but not with elected representatives in his own country.In India, they reported that their expansion of industrial production held up better than expected. It rose +4.1% in August and that was expected to ease to +2.6% in September. Burt in fact their fast expansion rolled on with a +4.0% gain last month. Their factory sector rose +4.8% on the same basis. This is a very good result for them.In Europe, inflation expectations dipped slightly to 2.7% in OctoberLater today, Australia will report its September inflation results, both their quarterly CPI and their monthly inflation indicator. Both are expected to rise to the 3% level. Recent comments by the RBA governor suggest they are in no hurry to cut their policy rate, given inflation remains high and their labour market is still expanding. They next review their cash rate target on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99%, dipping another -1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3956/oz, down another -US$37 overnight.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.8 USc, and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,406 and down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Recent bankruptcies of companies that accessed the private debt market are a reminder that manager selection is of the utmost importance. The real acid test for the private debt market will be the next recession, although there are no signs of one on the horizon. Still, the labour market is changing, and we look for a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on October 29, followed by another three by March. Alibaba claims to have invented a computing pooling solution that reduces the number of Nvidia GPUs needed to serve its AI models by 82%. An index of Hong Kong residential property infers prices are up 6% this month. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while the 'real economy' is barely able to expand - but is in fact doing so modestly - there are two extreme bubbles brewing - in AI firm valuations, and in precious metals valuations. One or both will end sometime, and the losses will be extraordinary when they do, likely hurting the 'real economy' when it happens. But who knows when? Financial market risk aversion is in evidence today in the bond markets.There are other stresses of course (geopolitical, retribution stupidity, commodity distortions, climate, etc.) and they have to play out at the same time.But first in the US, their economic data is dominated today by the October version of the Philadelphia Fed factory survey for the important Pennsylvania rust belt region. That reported an unexpected sharp slowdown in activity and a six month low in this index. If there is a silver lining however, it is that new order levels picked up from what were very low levels. Not helping however is that firms are again reporting higher than average cost increases. Most firms reported struggles passing on those higher costs in higher prices.American house-building activity has been struggling for the past five months but sentiment in the industry picked up in October somewhat, mainly on the expectation that lower interest rates would help. It's a sentiment improvement,not an activity improvement however.Yesterday we noted slightly improved factory sentiment in the New York state area. But today we can report that their services sector is in a tough spot, in fact its lowest since the pandemic-affected January 2021. It is glum there and firms are not expecting much improvement.In Canada, their small business sentiment has turned negative too.But Canada's housebuilding sector is on a roll, reporting strong housing starts again in September and well above what analysts were expecting. That is now five of the past six months with elevated housing start data.Across the Pacific in Japan, core machinery orders, excluding the large volatile sectors, fell -0.9% in August from July to ¥8.9 tln but it was much less than the sharp -4.6% drop in July. Analysts had expected a small gain however.And staying in Japan, it now looks like Sanae Takaichi will in fact become prime minister after more coalition talks.In France, the Macron-allied new prime minister has survived a no-confidence vote (on the second attempt) bringing some stability to their political mess.In Australia, their September jobless rate ticked higher to 4.5% and their jobs growth, especially full-time jobs growth, came in lower than expected.For the first time since June when rates started falling fast, global container freight rates rose last week, overall by +2%. In the meantime they had fallen -52%, so that suggests these costs may be bottoming out. They are now -50% lower than year-ago levels. There were modest rises everywhere, even in outbound China rates. There will be activity trying to front-run potentially new tariffs by the US, and there is Christmas-goods flows starting too.Bulk cargo rates rose a net +2% last week too, but in between it was unusually volatile. These latest levels are now +12% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.97% and down -8 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, up +US$77 from yesterday and far away a new ATH. Silver is up to just under US$54/oz and an ATH. Platinum is roaring too, now at US$1732/oz and up +71% from the start of the year and approaching its 2011 highs.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.3 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +60 bps at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8, up +10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,652 and down another -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Sweden is one of the worst countries in Europe when it comes to providing job opportunities for educated foreigners, according to an investigation last year by Lighthouse Reports and media outlets including the Financial Times. The study found for example that Sweden had the second-worst employment gap for college-educated migrants and that 68 percent of immigrants educated abroad were overqualified for their job.In this week's episode The Local's contributor Amélie Reichmuth speaks about this issue of "brain waste" in Sweden with Laurence Romani, who is a professor and Director of the Center for Responsible Leadership at the Stockholm School of Economics. Tackling Sweden's ‘brain waste': How employers can unlock migrant talentREAD ALSO:How many immigrants are overqualified for their jobs in Sweden?Want to build your Swedish network? Here's where to startHow to play office politics in Sweden... and survive  Become a member at https://www.thelocal.se/podcasts/podcast-offer?tpcc=padlock. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's economic activity over their holiday period will be impressing investors, while the US worries about weakening labour markets.But first, the ongoing US Federal Government shutdown means there is no USDA WASDE report for September that was due today. That will delay scrutiny of "farmageddon" especially for soybean farmers. Bailouts are on the way (in a way Trump hates in other countries) but they won't be large enough to hold off existential issues for many farmers.But despite the shutdown, there was a long-dated bond auction overnight for their 30 year Treasury bond, and it attracted normal levels of support. It resulted in a median yield of 4.67%, up from 4.58% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders for September rose almost +10% from a year earlier to its best September level since the record high in 2022. Driving the increase was export orders, although domestic orders gained too. It is an impressive result for them.Taiwanese exports in September continue to astound. The surged almost +34% from a year ago to more than US$54 bln in the month, their third-highest month ever. Only the prior July and August were larger, so they are on a real roll. This latest data was driven by strong demand for their electronics products, up more than +86% on the same basis. Other machinery exports were good too. You can see why mainland politicians covet their neighbour and want to claim it.In the Philippines, their central bank cut its policy rate unexpectedly by -25 bps to 4.75%.Chian is back from holiday. According to official reports, they estimated the Golden Week holiday generated 888 mln separate travel trips with total overall spending at ¥809 bln (NZ$200 bln). These are record highs with hospitality up +2.7% and tourist spending up +6%. Their overall GST data shows retail activity up +4.5% from year-ago levels for this holiday period. By any measures these are good levels and indicate China's economy is more than holding its own at present. It also indicates that domestic demand can be a sustainable driver for them, much as Beijing has wanted.Supporting this conclusion has been the positive financial market reactions post-holiday from the equity, bond and currency markets.Indonesia reported August retail sales overnight and they expanded at a good pace, up +3.5% from a year ago, and while this wasn't as fast as for July, it does indicate that recent government measures to dig them out of a languid period are working. This is important because social unrest spilled into the streets a few months ago.In Europe, Germany reported August export levels overnight and they came in almost the same as they reported a year ago (€130 bln)In Australia, their October survey of inflation expectations again shows pressure at the top of the recent range. Those expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7% in September, continuing high results since June. This is building concerns that Q3 inflation may exceed the forecasts of 3% when it is released on Wednesday, October 29. This latest uptick reflects the impact of unwinding temporary energy subsidies, and elevated labour costs driven by weak productivity.Global container freight rates were little-changed last week, down just -1% from the prior week to be under half year-ago levels. Bulk freight rates were also unchanged for the week to be +5% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15% and up +1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3980/oz, down -US$73 from yesterday and now well off its high. Volatility is setting in. Silver is down too but not by as much, now just under US$49/oz. Earlier in the day it hit a new ATH before the pullback.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.4 USc, down another -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we softened -10 bps at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.2, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$120,690 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US government shutdown, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party leadership race results, and Canada's labour market data.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance  This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.  This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.   The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer  The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.    

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while much of the financial world seems disconnected from economic reality, we are about to reminded of our local realities this week.This week will be all about the RBNZ OCR review on Wednesday. Will it be a -25 bps cut or a -50 bps cut? Financial markets do not know, but then again neither do analysts. Banks have been assuming -25 bps at least and have trimmed their one year fixed home loan rates by this much. But since the last OCR review one year swap rates have fallen -31 bps, so if there is a -50 bps cut on Wednesday, expect those swap rates to fall almost immediately, and banks to follow that up with more fixed rate mortgage reductions. Savers will be looking on nervously because the rates offered to them in term deposits also face the same downward pressures.In Australia, it will be all about the Westpac consumer confidence survey, the NAB business confidence survey, and consumer inflation expectations. And of course, parts of the eastern states are now on Daylight Saving Time, so basically back to 2 hours behind New Zealand (except Brisbane, which stays 3 hours behind).The US government shutdown will remain the focus this week in the world's major financial markets as the extended impasse between members of Congress showed little signs of improvement. The shutdown jeopardises releases from US Federal agencies including the trade balance, jobless claims, and the budget statement after the September jobs report and other key data has already been delayed. Still, the minutes from the FOMC's last meeting is still expected.Among non-US governmental releases, October's Michigan Consumer Sentiment surveyed will be eyed.Over the weekend the ruling LDP party in Japan selected a new prime minister, notable because it is Japan's first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi, 64, was known to be close to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, another prominent right-wing leader of the LDP. She has publicly stated that she sees former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her role model. She has been called a "China hawk". Some locally fear they may be getting a Liz Truss.In China, the massive Mid-Autumn Festival holiday travel is underway. China's railways handled an all-time record 23.1 million passenger trips last Wednesday, the first day of the eight-day holiday.Across the Pacific in the US over the weekend, the ISM released its services PMI for September and that showed a sector no longer expanding. New orders did though, barely, but a sharp slowdown from August's rise. Business activity actually contracted, down near the brief dip in mid-2024, and apart from that its lowest level since the pandemic in 2020. Analysts were not expecting this widely-watched metric to be so downbeat.Price rise impulses were restrained. Businesses are not able to pass on the tariff taxes in full, and that makes them feel quite constrained.In Canada, five provinces raised their minimum wages last week, following five who did it earlier in the year. As a result, British Columbia is now at C$17.85/hr (NZ$21.95), Ontario is at C$17.60/hr. Quebec at C$16.10/hr and Alberta is the lowest at C$15/hr (NZ$18.45).Canadian housing markets are operating on a two-track basis now; rising sales volumes and falling sales prices. In Toronto, sales volumes rose +8.5% in September from a year ago to 5592 homes sold, but average prices fell -4.7% on the same basis. And that was despite a central bank rate cut in the month.More globally, the FAO global food price index fell in September and in part that was due to retreating dairy prices. But they are still +9% higher than year-ago levels. On the other hand, meat prices rose again to be +6.6% higher than year-ago levels. Sheepmeat surged on limited supply and good demand. Beef prices rose sharply to all-time high levels.And we should probably note that after rising to €84/tonne in 2024 to start this year, EU carbon prices then fell to about €60/tonne at the end of March. But since then they have risen back to almost €80/tonne now and putting on a bit of a spurt in early October. While local carbon markets are struggling, the same is not true elsewhere.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12% and unchanged from Saturday but down -6 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3885/oz, up +US$3 from Saturday and a new high. That is up +US$113 or +2.9% from a week ago. Silver had another big spurt this week, now just under US$48/oz, a weekly gain of +3.8%.American oil prices are softish at just under US$61/bbl, but down -US$4 from a week ago, with the international Brent price now just on US$64.5 and down -$5.50 from a week ago.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 58.3 USc, little-changed from Saturday but up +50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we holding at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.6, up +10 bps from Saturday and up +40 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$122,805 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US is throwing out its existing economic playbooks and replacing it with personal revenge and retribution.First, there is no progress on the US federal government shutdown, other than Trump declaring it an 'unprecedented opportunity' to defund his opponents. The childishness of the approach by a world power is something to behold.Almost certainly, there will be no US non-farm payrolls report tomorrow due to the Federal government shutdown. That will save the Administration from what would likely be an embarrassing result of job atrophy.US-based employers announced 54,064 job cuts in September, the least in three months, compared to 85,979 in August. But of course, October is off to a very rocky start. So far this year, companies have announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest such level in five year when 2,082,262 were announced. It is up +55% from the 609,242 job cuts announced through the first three quarters of last year and is up +24% from the 2024 full year total of 761,358.In Japan, it may have been only a small improvement from August, but Japan's consumer confidence index rose in September, reaching its highest level since December 2024. Most components improved, including overall livelihood, employment outlook, and willingness to buy durable goods.In Australia, household spending inched higher by just +0.1% in August to be +5.0% than year-ago levels. It was held back by lower spending on booze and recreation, lifted by higher spending on transport.Aussie exports were weak in August, mainly because of lower gold exports. This means August goods exports were -3.5% lower than year ago levels. Imports were +4.5% higher on the same basis.And the Australian First Home Buyer scheme is open and accepting applications. The word is that demand is strong. The scheme allows buyers to buy with extreme leverage - as little as a 2% deposit - all backed up by the taxpayer. The extra demand will come at a time of low listing availability, low new build activity, and already high prices. Analysts expect to be watching future house prices zooming higher because of these new incentives and the existing pressures.Global container freight rates were down another -5% last week from the prior week, and it was the same story; the decline was led by outbound rates from China. Bulk cargo rates fell -11% in the past week to be very similar to year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.09%, down another -2 bps from yesterday on risk aversion.The price of gold will start today at US$3841/oz, down -US$29 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$1.50 at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$64/bbl. In the US, these much lower prices are not really flowing through to pump prices with current prices little-different to year-ago levels even though US crude prices are -18% lower than then.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.2 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +30 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.4, and up +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,725 and up +1.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets are maintaining a wilful blindness in the face of the arrival of some major threats and poor data.Firstly we should note that the US Federal Government is shutting down having reached its debt limit, and in the absence of a compromise reached between Congress (the Senate in this case) and White House. There is no sign that this issue will be resolved soon. The President is using the event to blame everyone else but himself - and the truth is he probably doesn't care what damage he is doing; he's likely relishing it.But it will likely have significant financial market impacts, although today Wall Street is acting like it will be resolved quickly as usual, holding their breath.However, this shutdown could delay the September jobs report due at the weekend. Some are even saying the shutdown could stretch all the way to the Fed's next meeting on October 29. (The US Supreme Court has knocked back Trump's attempt to oust Fed Governor Cook, at least until the new year.) Gold posted another all-time high and is on track for an annual rise +50%, while the US dollar is under pressure.Meanwhile, data out overnight shows there was a huge drop in US mortgage applications last week, the largest in nearly a year. Refinance activity dropped the most, but finance for new home purchases dropped notably too. Benchmark mortgage interest rates didn't move much, up just +12 bps and still on a declining trend.News on their labour market front wasn't good for September either. In advance of this weekend's non-farm payrolls report, the ADP Employment Report was expected to reveal a low +50,000 jobs gain. But in fact it came in with a -32,000 jobs loss for the month. It isn't clear yet whether the non-farm payrolls report will be released given the shutdown. The ADP version may be all the markets get on how the giant US labour market is tracking.And it really isn't any better on the factory floor. The latest ISM factory PMIfor September is still in contraction (49.1) with the new order component retreating from August. (But the S&P Global factory PMI which we reported last week is a bit more upbeat. Even so it reports slowing demand.)All this will depress American economic growth. But it may also raise inflation. The frequent shocks to global supply chains from factors such as the American tariffs leave central banks with limited tools to combat rising risks of inflation, according to the Governor of the Canadian central bank in a recent interview.Canada's factories are slowing too.Across the Pacific, similar factory PMIs show Japan contracting, Korea moving back into expansion on strong new orders, Taiwan going backwards, and Indonesia in a minor expansion again on the back of better new orders.So it won't be a surprise to lean that September exports from Korea rose sharply to their best level since mid-2024.In China, their Golden Week national holiday is underway, starting an enormous surge in travel by vacationers. International markets will notice the surge.In Australia, Cotality is reporting a surge in house prices driven by a worrying combination of low new supply, very low listing levels, and new low-deposit arrangements bringing in more demand. House prices jumped in all capital cities in September, led by Perth and Brisbane, but the most notable change is the rise in Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.11%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3870/oz, up +US$23 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is back up to US$47.50/oz.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$65.50/bbl and down -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +40 bps at 88 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.3, and also up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,765 and up +4.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news even the giant American economy can't seem to maintain its momentum, with Trump grabbing at all the levers of government. He is even taking government domain names and inserting is personal interests. It will become increasingly hard to separate real American economic data from that skewed by his army of MAGA blackshirts who have been inserted into these agencies.The week ahead will be busy, with major economic releases that will culminate with the US September non-farm payrolls report and related labour market data. Ordinarily they impact the policy path for the Fed this year. Markets currently expect jobs growth of less than +50,000 and settling in to a low trajectory. Before that we will get the ADP private employment report (expect even less), results from the JOLTS report, and Challenger job cuts (a big jump is expected by analysts).Besides labour updates, investors will also be on alert for the risk of a US government shutdown at the start of the new fiscal year on October 1The September update of the ISM PMI is due (analysts think it will be more contractionary than in August), and we will also get PMI releases from China, Canada, Brazil, South Korea, and ASEAN countries.Regionally, the RBA will be reviewing its monetary policy settings on Tuesday, and now no rate cut is expected due to rising inflation pressures, so markets expect it to stay at 3.6%. India will also be reviewing its monetary policy position late Wednesday, and no change is expected there either, keeping their rate at 5.5%.Daylight savings time has started in New Zealand of course, but not yet in Australia. So we will be 3 hours ahead of eastern Australia. But Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia do not observe daylight saving time, making it a patchwork system across their country.Over the weekend, China released August industrial profits data. After struggling all year to July to show any improvement on the equivalent month a year ago, August industrial profits rose at a good clip, up by more than +20% on the prior August's lame result. There was faster growth in the private sector while state-owned enterprises recorded a much smaller decline.And we should note that China is about to go on its 2025 national Golden Week holiday which will run from Wednesday, October 1st to Wednesday, October 8th, an extended eight-day holiday that combines National Day with the Mid-Autumn Festival. This is a major time for domestic and international travel, resulting in busy transportation and tourist activity. Businesses largely suspend their operations in this time but key government departments do operate.Over the weekend, Singapore released industrial production data delivering a large negative surprise. This activity was down a massive -7.8% in August from a year ago. The month-on-month data was sharply negative too. It was largely driven by very big drops in the electronics and biomedical sectors and caught analysts very much by surprise.And over the weekend in the world's largest economy, they released personal income and spending data for August which came in pretty much as anticipated. Personal disposable income rose +0.4% in the month and personal consumption expenditure rose +0.6% on the same basis - all from the prior month. But if you think about it, these are actually fast annualised rises, with costs rising much faster than incomes.This same data shows incomes were up +1.9% from a year ago, consumption up 2.7% on that year-ago basis. And as we noted, recent changes are rising faster than these annual shifts. The Fed will have noticed, as PCE inflation is now running well over 3% and its fastest since February. Goods inflation is 4.2% with durable goods up +5.2% in a year in this data. Clearly the tariff-tax effect is not transitory.The updated September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for the US was revised slightly lower to be -21% lower than a year ago. Consumers surveyed continue to express frustration over persistently high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning to surveyors that high prices are eroding their personal finances. And they say they expect inflation to be +4.7% higher in a year's time - interestingly similar to the current goods inflation data.Markets are going to have to accept that inflation is being structurally embedded at above target levels and that the prospect of more rate cuts is receding if the Fed is to have any credibility with an inflation-fighting mandate. Financial markets have priced in one -25 bps rate cut this year, two by the end of January 2026. Politics may deliver them but it will be at the expense of inflation - which is clearly rising again and quite fast.And the US has also arbitrarily decided to impose new tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, adding to the costs their consumers will have to pay, either via import duties or from new facilities to be built locally. If it goes as Trump plans, the excess capacity internationally (after removing production for the US) will cause international prices to fall as US prices rise. Lose-lose for Americans, win-win for international consumers.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, little-changed from Saturday to be up +5 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at US$3759/oz, down -US$14 from Saturday. That is up +US$78 from a week ago. Silver had another big spurt over the weekend, now up over US$46/oz, a weekly gain of +US$3.American oil prices are down -50 USc at just over US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 57.7 USc and down -10 bps from Saturday, and down -80 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.2 AUc but down -60 bps for the week. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.2, similar to Saturday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,271 and up +0.6% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at under +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The Canadian housing market has been so hot for so long that it's hard to imagine it ever being any other way. On this week's TLDR, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, talks about why he thinks the housing market's on track for a serious course correction — and what it could look like when it finally happens. Plus, what a U.S. TikTok deal could mean for the future of social media. And, how prediction markets are changing the game for sports bettors.This episode was hosted by Devin Friedman, business reporter Sarah Rieger, former hedgefunder Matthew Karasz and author Jared Sullivan. Follow us on other platforms, or subscribe to our weekly newsletter: linkin.bio/tldrThe TLDR Podcast is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. The content in the TLDR Podcast is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, and does not represent the views of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. More information at wealthsimple.com/tldr.

Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley discuss August's Labor Force data, which showed steady unemployment at 4.2% but softer employment and participation. They explore implications for the RBA, population growth normalising faster than expected, and what that means for labour supply. Looking ahead, they preview the August CPI indicator, expecting a slight easing to 2.7%, and highlight market services inflation as a key focus. Overall, the outlook remains positive with inflation near target and growth improving.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance  This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.  This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.   The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer  The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.  

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a long-anticipated rate cut as labour market concerns mount Stateside. President Trump is treated to a series of royal ceremonies, military parades, a flypast and a lavish white-tie banquet during his unprecedented second state visit to the UK. Today the focus turns to trade deals and a business roundtable together with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. And in the City, investors await a potential Bank of England rate hold and whether policy makers move to rein in the pace of UK gilts. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the New Zealand dollar has been re-rated sharply lower overnight, although to be fair only back to levels it was at in April. US benchmark interest rates are rising but the new weaker New Zealand economy is expected to drive the OCR lower than earlier expected.But first in the US, initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at +194,500, a decrease of 10,400 from the prior week when an increase of about that was indicated by seasonal factors. There are now 1.75 mln people on these benefits, +81,000 more than at this time last year.Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) retreated in August. A retreat was expected but it came in more than twice the expected decline. That means the LEI fell by -2.8% over the six months between February and August, a faster rate of decline than its -0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period. They noted persistently weak manufacturing new order levels and consumer expectations, and warn of increased headwinds ahead.But it is not weak everywhere. The Philly Fed factory survey for September picked up a modest rise in new orders. But firms in the region remain under sharp price pressure unable to pass on the higher prices they are paying.On the farm, the giant American soybean crop is about ready for harvest, and farmers are glum. The Chinese aren't buying and the Washington isn't coming to the rescue with subsidy support. Prices are back to 2016-2018 levels and the rural concern is palpable.In Financial markets, there was a notable less well-supported US Treasury inflation protected (TIPS) bond tender today that resulted in a median yield of 1.65% plus CPI inflation, compared to 1.93% plus CPI at the prior equivalent event three months ago.There were more central bank rate reviews overnight. Taiwan kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.0%. They have an inflation target of 2.0% and their CPI is currently running at 1.6%. Norway cut theirs by -25 bps to 4.0% in what has been called a "hawkish cut". They have inflation at 3.0% with their target at 2.0%. And the Bank of England held theirs at 4% as expected. They have inflation at inflation at 3.8% when their target is 2%. South Africa held at 7%. Inflation there is 3.3% with a preferred rate of 3.0%.China announced that its Boeing and Airbus-competing C919 aircraft has now received more than 1000 orders, mostly domestic but some international orders as well.Australian labour markets stumbled somewhat in August, falling -5,400 when a small +22,000 rise was expected. And the detail is even less positive because full-time employment fell by -40,900 to 10,077,300 people while part-time employment rose by +35,500 to 4,549,200 people. None of these changes were enough to materially change their 4.2% unemployment rate.Container freight rates fell -6% last week from the prior week with all the weakness coming from outbound rates from China. But bulk freight rates rose +3.4% last week to be +14.6% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time in a steady rise. The price of gold will start today at US$3,643/oz, down -US$15 from yesterday's post Fed dip.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.8 USc and down -90 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -70 bps at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66, down -50 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,553 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

While some parts of the economy are slowing down, AI continues to defy expectations. On this week's TLDR, how Oracle's Larry Ellison made over a hundred billion (that's billion, with a B) dollars in one day, thanks to the latest chapter in the AI gold rush. Plus, economist Joey Politano, author of the Apricitas newsletter, explains what a frozen labour market can tell us about our financial futures. And, we dig into the financial cost of wildfires.This episode was hosted by Devin Friedman, business reporter Sarah Rieger and former hedgefunder Matthew Karasz. Follow us on other platforms, or subscribe to our weekly newsletter: linkin.bio/tldrThe TLDR Podcast is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. The content in the TLDR Podcast is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, and does not represent the views of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. More information at wealthsimple.com/tldr.

This week Bruce Sellery explores three timely money topics to help you navigate today's changing financial landscape.   First, we look at the state of the labour market during uncertain times with Scott Stirrett, author of The Uncertainty Advantage. Learn how to adapt your career strategy, build resilience, and strengthen your professional network when the job market feels unpredictable.   Next, Olivia Howell, co-founder and CEO of Fresh Starts Registry, joins us to talk about divorce registries — an innovative way for individuals to get the essential items they need as they begin a new chapter after separation.   Finally, Benjy Katchen, CEO of Wahi, explains how their cashback program from a digital real estate platform and brokerage can put thousands of dollars back in your pocket after buying a home.   If you're facing a big life transition, worried about your job security, or curious about how to save money on your next home purchase, this episode is packed with practical insights you can act on right away.   To find out more about the guests check out: Scott Stirrett: Substack | X/Twitter | LinkedIn Benjy Katchen: wahi.com | X/Twitter | Instagram Olivia Howell: freshstartregistry.com | Threads | Facebook | Instagram Bruce Sellery is a personal finance expert and best-selling author. As the founder of Moolala and the CEO of Credit Canada, Bruce is on a mission to help you get a better handle on your money so you can live the life you want. High energy & low B.S., this is Moolala: Money Made Simple.   Find Bruce Sellery at Moolala.ca | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

It's becoming clear that the US labour market is cooling while at the same time inflation is increasing. Therefore, while markets are expecting a cut in US rates by the Fed this week, there could be some risk to the view that the Fed will cut rates another five times over the next year. Investec Focus Radio SA

This is the single most important paper to come out in tech in recent weeks. Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen investigated whether generative AI is leading to job losses in roles most exposed to AI – and how these effects differ by age and the way AI is used. In this episode, I break down these results and their implications. I covered: (01:17) Key finding (03:32) What's going on here? (06:13) A canary in the coal mine? (8:21) The dataset studied and why it matters (10:34) The sectors impacted and why it matters (12:37) Why don't firms just reduce salaries? (14:34) Historical parallels with electricity (17:20) How leadership impacts job losses (20:46) Implications for policy, education, equity (24:53) Outro Where to find me: - Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ - Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk - Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem ----Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1

The S&P 500 is trading at fresh all-time highs ahead of today's crucial US non-farm payrolls report, which iswidely seen as the final piece of the puzzle that could give the Federal Reserve the go-ahead to resume cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, Asian markets are rising, buoyed by positive trade developments out of Japan and broader optimism in the region. Joining us today is Tim Gagie, Head of Private Banking Sales in Geneva for FX and Precious Metals, to discuss which currencies – beyond the usual suspects – could benefit from a renewed weakening of the US dollar.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:03) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (11:37) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.60% this week. In today's podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley discuss the decision and dissect the key labour market data that was out this week. They also cover off the CommBank HSI which is showing some green shoots for consumer spending.     ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).   Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance   Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data' is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank's internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘CommBank Household Spending Insights' series is a combination of the CBA Data and publicly available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer   The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”   

Canada's new government is investing more than $3.2 billion over three years in over 520 organizations outside Quebec to help newcomers integrate into the labour market and strengthen the economy.This investment will fund services like licensing support, language training, and programs for French-speaking newcomers outside Quebec — aiming to fill gaps in high-demand sectors such as health care and skilled trades.More details: https://myar.me/tag/fed/ Guidance on Canadian Immigration programs: https://myar.me/c Join our free weekly Zoom meetings: https://myar.me/zoom Learn how to choose a representative: https://ircnews.ca/consultant#CanadaImmigration #IRCC #SettlementServices #EconomicIntegration #CanadaJobs #LabourMarket #ImmigrationNews

Last year's recession is still being felt in the job market. Stats NZ data —due out this morning— is expected to show unemployment reached a nine-year high of 5.3% in the June quarter. The economy's been back in growth since the latter part of last year. But ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking the economy has lost about 40,000 jobs since the late 2023 peak. More full-time roles have been lost than part time, he explained, and the labour market is getting that much weaker. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From our series recorded live at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum 2025. How much progress have we made in finding out the source of gender inequality at work? At the Forum, Barbara Petrongolo of the University of Oxford and CEPR gave the keynote lecture on “Questions and challenges for 21st century labour markets”. In conversations with Tim Phillips, she points out that there are still many unanswered questions about the unequal role of women in that labour market, and that recent research often raises as many questions as it answers. If we find those answers, she argues, we can make society not only a fairer place, but unlock economic growth and productivity. Read more:  The Evolution of Gender in the Labor Market https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/evolution-gender-labour-market DP16939 Men are from Mars and Women Too: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Overconfidence Experiments https://cepr.org/publications/dp16939 Listen more: Our podcast on how Women are from Mars too https://cepr.org/multimedia/women-are-mars-too

After years of a historically strong labour market, there are now growing signs of softening beneath the surface. Work opportunities in the US are dwindling amid ongoing economic uncertainty, with the Trump administration's policies contributing to high unemployment figures. Milford Asset Management expert Brendan Larsen explains further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephen Grootes sits down with Dr Leila Fourie, CEO of the JSE, to unpack the significance of the all share index breaking through the historic 100,000-point mark. They explore what this milestone means for investor confidence, the health of South Africa’s capital markets, and how it reflects broader economic trends both locally and globally. David Shapiro, Veteran Stockbroker and Chief Global Equity Strategist at Sasfin on JSE all share smashing through 100,000-point barrier. In other interviews, labour analyst Andrew Levy from Andrew Levy & Associates, chats about the backlash from civil society over proposed changes to South Africa’s labour laws. They delve into the concerns being raised, what the amendments could mean for workers and employers, and how the debate reflects broader tensions in the labour market. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape. Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa Follow us on social media 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702 CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalkCapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalkCapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephen Grootes speaks to labour analyst Andrew Levy from Andrew Levy & Associates, about the backlash from civil society over proposed changes to South Africa’s labour laws. They delve into the concerns being raised, what the amendments could mean for workers and employers, and how the debate reflects broader tensions in the labour market. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The main talking point this week was the Australian labour market after the labour force survey weakened in June. Economists Harry Ottley and Belinda Allen talk through the data and what it means for the RBA going forward.  ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).   Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance   Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data' is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank's internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘CommBank Household Spending Insights' series is a combination of the CBA Data and publicly available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer   The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”   

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US trade negotiations, US labour market data and the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey.        Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance  This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.  This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.   The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer  The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.        

US President Donald Trump's “America First” foreign policy, which prioritised limiting military involvement overseas and avoiding “endless wars,” now appears to have given way to a revival of neo-conservatism, an ideology that holds the US should actively use its power to intervene abroad. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed could cut rates as early as July, because of downside risk to the labour market. A recent Bank of America survey showed fund managers are the most underweight US dollar they have been in the last 20 years. More than half thought international stocks will be the best-performing asset over the next few years.

Africa Melane is joined by Thabile Nkunjana, a Senior Economist at The National Agricultural Marketing Council in Pretoria, to unpack the debate surrounding South Africa’s official unemployment rate, which sits at 32.9% for the first quarter of 2025. The conversation follows comments by Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie, who claimed the true rate could be closer to 10% if informal and self-employed workers were properly counted. This claim has been strongly rejected by Stats SA. Presenter John Maytham is an actor and author-turned-talk radio veteran and seasoned journalist. His show serves a round-up of local and international news coupled with the latest in business, sport, traffic and weather. The host’s eclectic interests mean the program often surprises the audience with intriguing book reviews and inspiring interviews profiling artists. A daily highlight is Rapid Fire, just after 5:30pm. CapeTalk fans call in, to stump the presenter with their general knowledge questions. Another firm favourite is the humorous Thursday crossing with award-winning journalist Rebecca Davis, called “Plan B”. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Afternoon Drive with John Maytham Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 15:00 and 18:00 (SA Time) to Afternoon Drive with John Maytham broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/BSFy4Cn or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/n8nWt4x Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media: CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The International Labour Organization says global trade tensions are taking a toll on labor markets.

Rich Socher is the Founder and CEO of You.com. Richard previously served as the Chief Scientist and EVP at Salesforce. Before that, Richard was the CEO/CTO of the AI startup MetaMind, which Salesforce acquired in 2016. He is widely recognised as having brought neural networks into the field of natural language processing, inventing the most widely used word vectors, contextual vectors and prompt engineering. He has over 150,000 citations and served as an adjunct professor in the computer science department at Stanford. In Today's Episode We Discuss: 04:10 Winners & Losers: OpenAI, Gemini, Claude 08:59 How Partnerships Could Decide the Winners in AI 12:42 China vs US: Who Wins the War for AI 25:50 How Society and Economics Needs to Change in a World of AI 34:04 What Jobs Will Be Replaced, What Will Not 36:04 How Europe Needs to Change It's Approach to AI 41:06 How AI Will Change Health and Longevity 43:10 AI in Consumer and Enterprise Markets 49:30 Quantum Computing and AI Misconceptions 56:57 Longevity, Personal Reflections, and Future Outlook  

Understanding today's complex labor market requires accurate data rather than just following headlines or anecdotes. For businesses and talent professionals, having reliable insights into hiring trends, wage movements, and worker expectations is essential for making informed decisions in these uncertain times. My guest this week is Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Indeed; drawing from Indeed's real-time analysis of millions of job postings, CVs, and marketplace behaviors, Indeed Hiring Lab's research provides a unique window into what's happening in the job market. We're focusing on the UK market in this conversation, but Jack does provide some broader global insights and highlights the many global commonalities when it comes to worker motivations, aging populations, and the impact of AI In the interview, we discuss: The state of the UK labour market in early 2025 How geopolitical issues are impacting hiring trends globally The surprising resilience of wages despite market cooling Primary motivators for job seekers in today's market The truth about remote and hybrid work trends versus media narratives How AI is already reshaping employment and creating new opportunities A growing focus on neurodiversity in job postings Preparing for demographic challenges and an aging workforce The Labour market outlook for the next 12-18 months Follow this podcast on Spotify Follow this podcast on Apple Podcasts.