The Big Conversation

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data look at 10 charts that could be pivotal to performance in 2023. Inflation, unemployment and the policy response are key, but the energy crisis is still bubbling beneath the surface and recession-watch will be everyone's favourite pastime next year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Chinese equities have been rallying for a month in expectation that COVID restrictions would be lifted. Despite this, commodities and other global assets that should have been affected have yet to provide anything more than false starts. This week, however, we got the definitive news that restrictions were being lifted meaningfully and we assess whether this is now the time that commodities finally make their move higher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of The Big Conversation, Real Vision's Jamie McDonald examines the possible reasons for the pullback in commodity prices and asks whether an impending recession is the main driver. If that is the case, then why do we see such resilience in 2023 corporate earnings especially when other data, particularly housing data, is pointing to estimates being far lower. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to see how financial markets may transition from 2022 and the year of the price shock to uncertainty in2023. Could that be the year of the growth shock? Whilst the consensus is for a slowdown, will it be deep or mild? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the recent decline in the dollar and what this could mean for Fed policy. The long-term relationship of a falling dollar is rising commodity prices. Therefore, an early pivot could run the risk of rebooting inflation. That in turn might require the Fed to remain on a hawkish path. Will the Fed start to ease off before they have got prices under control? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the outlook for employment and its implications for both recessions and equity markets. Equity markets usually make a major bottom during recessions and recessions go hand in hand with higher unemployment. Currently, unemployment is close to record lows. That could change, but will it be swift enough to allow the Fed to reverse course on rates? In the Chatter, Real Vision's Roger Hirst talks to Kelvin Tay, Regional Chief Investment Officer at UBS Wealth Management in Singapore, about the likelihood of a recession in the US. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to tackle the question of why US yields continue to rise despite deteriorating economic conditions. The answer possibly lies a very long way from the US, in Japan. This week the BoJ intervened once again to stabilize their currency and that means selling treasuries - a lot of them.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's James Helliwell uses best in class data to make sense of the markets in the wake of the latest inflation data. With core CPI hitting a 40-year high despite seeing a slowdown in the headline data, investors are increasingly concerned by the broadening of price pressures, and the potential for this to fuel a wage spiral as workers demand increases to keep up with the cost of living. But might the Fed's rate hikes bring this to an end by creating higher unemployment? In the chatter, Real Vision's James Helliwell talks to Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at LSEG, about some of the key trends and structural changes taking place beneath the surface of the labor market, and how these might influence the outlook for inflation, rate hikes and risk assets.  See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to look at the prospect of a higher oil price through midterms and into year end, and the surprising effects that could have on the consumer. Last week OPEC+ made the decision to cut oil production and it had the desired effect, a higher oil price. But couple this with less ammo from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve post midterms in a month, and we could see oil grind higher into year end. In the Chatter, Real Vision's Roger Hirst talks to David Rickard, Director in Trading Solutions at LSEG, about several of these issues but in particular how they relate to higher government yields. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at markets that were breaking but are now bouncing. The stresses in the UK bond market and the strength in the US dollar has led to a repricing of a potential Fed pivot. But, if the markets pivot before the Fed, does that make a pivot less likely? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to ask the big question on everyone's lips right now: “Are we about to see capitulation in markets?" With the help of Refinitiv's exhaustive data, the answers lie in the keeping a close eye on measurements such as unemployment, consumer sentiment and the ISM. But keep an eye too on the correlation between assets, because that can be a very good sign that we are teetering on the edge.  See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the key role that US employment will play in defining the depth of a recession and the lows in the equity market. All recessions since 1970 have seen unemployment rise dramatically through the recession. So far, unemployment has not yet turned. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the dilemma for the Fed. If the economy recovers, then inflation should pick up. If the economy stumbles and the Fed pivots, inflation should pick up. Historically, it's a recession that brings prices under control. Does the Fed need to manufacture one? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at market developments leading up to last week's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. An easing in financial conditions doesn't appear to be in-line with the wishes of a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has raised the risk of a significant re-pricing in risk assets. With one of the shortest speeches at Jackson Hole by a Fed Chair in recent history, Powell's comments came across firm and direct, as the Fed attempted to set the record straight. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the possibility of a pause by the Fed and potentially a pivot. A recession should cap prices, but if the Fed eases-off too early, prices could rebound again, as they did in the 1970's. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best in class data to look at market positioning around a potential Fed pivot. With a strong rally in risk assets following the July FOMC meeting, the market seems to be pricing slower growth – and potentially lower inflation – which could lead an increasingly data dependant Fed to curtail its rate hikes. But, as more recent rhetoric from policymakers has downplayed recession fears and reiterated the need to get inflation under control, could the rally provide an opportunity for the central bank to assert its hawkish bias? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the rising expectation of a pivot from the Fed. Growth indicators are rolling over and many in the market want the Fed to support growth and abandon its fight against rising prices. But, if the Fed pivots too soon, it could lead to another painful leg higher in inflation. In the Chatter, LSEG's Wayne Bryan looks at the European Energy crisis which could see Europe flirting with recession for the rest of the year and beyond. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Jamie McDonald looks at recent developments in various parts of the Treasury yield curve and whether it's signaling that the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign has finally tipped us into the recessionary phase. While nominal economic data has remained relatively robust here in the United States, the picture is less clear when factoring in the impact of inflation. Are fixed income markets hinting that the Fed is at serious risk of going too far? If so, we're already beginning to see hints that the Fed might be forced into another dramatic policy shift. In the Chatter, Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at LSEG, gives her outlook for inflation and the potential implications for various asset classes and equity sector rotations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at whether the recent run higher in the dollar will also spread to the Chinese Yuan. So far, it's been the Euro and the Yen that have seen some of the biggest moves lower versus the US dollar, but will China sit back and allow other regions to take a competitive advantage? In the Chatter, we talk to Dewi Johns of Refinitiv Lipper about some of the key fund flows out of the UK. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's James Helliwell uses best in class data to look at whether the current growth scare in commodity markets will mean that the Fed can dial back its rate hiking commitments. The market has been lowering the terminal rate and bringing forward the next rate cuts, but the Fed still needs to get inflation under control. But will they flinch before then?     See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to look at whether recent weakness in equity markets could have further to go amidst signs of an economic slowdown. Although regional manufacturing surveys are rolling over, there are mixed signals coming from other important indicators which suggest the outlook might not be quite so bleak, as guest Charles Van Vleet explains.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at whether recent weakness in some commodities are signs that demand destruction is starting to appear. Copper has been breaking down and crude oil has pulled back from the highs, but are financial conditions yet tight enough to bring inflation under control? An additional risk is the uncertainty around the Bank of Japan, which appears to have supercharged its loose monetary policy. Is that sustainable? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the problems facing the world's central banks. The ECB has convened an emergency meeting, the BoJ has reiterated yield curve control, and the Fed is debating a faster pace of rate hikes. With a new 40 year high in US CPI, it's time to get serious. In the Chatter, LSEG's Catherine Yoshimoto outlines the major liquidity event of the Russell Index reconstitution that takes place on June 24th.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald talks to Indrani De, LSEG's Head of Global Investment Research, about the outlook for credit and the economy, including the impact that higher oil prices will have on growth. Indrani highlights that the credit markets are not yet showing any signs of stress, having only reached levels that were achieved prior to the pandemic. Are they a lagging indicator or are recession fears overblown?   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the recent break out in crude oil prices and the ongoing squeeze in agricultural products. US inflation may have peaked in H1, but that doesn't mean it will quickly drop back to ‘normal' levels. In the Chatter section, Roger Hirst talks to LSEG's Director of European Gas Research, Wayne Bryan, about the structural issues in Europe's energy market that could persist for a number of years.     See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the current level of stock market volatility, which is high, but not excessive. Most major market lows are telegraphed by a surge in volatility, but should we expect that again this time?   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Jamie McDonald looks at the dramatic moves in agricultural commodities as a result of various export bans, the most recent coming out of India. Will similar announcements from China, Serbia, and Indonesia spark a cascading response from other exporters and risk further inflationary pressures? With policymakers squarely focused on taming inflation, investors might wish to reconsider their traditional asset allocations.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the recent weakness across stocks and bonds. If retail investors are buying the dips and institutions have liquidated few of their positions, then who is behind this weakness?   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Garett Lim speaks to Sabrina Bailey, London Stock Exchange's Global Head of Wealth, to discuss the secular trends that are driving rapid change in the wealth management industry, and how technology is helping Asia to drive ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the dramatic move in the Chinese Yuan that has sparked a response from the People's Bank of China. Is their latest attempt to stabilize the currency a signal that troubles in China are far greater than investors appreciate? Between Covid lockdowns, a deteriorating economy and policy makers' attempts to support the economy, the recent developments in China have introduced a new set of factors to be considered by the US Federal Reserve. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the dramatic move in the Japanese Yen that is testing some key levels. Will the Bank of Japan keep a cap on yields and let the currency go? Even the Euro is testing a multi decade uptrend. A strong dollar may not be your base case, but you need to be aware of its potential and the implications that has.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week LSEG's Garett Lim talks to Helena Fung, LSEG's Head of Sustainable Finance in the APAC region. They discuss the positive steps that Asia's corporates have taken toward embracing the reporting criteria and ESG standards that have been set out by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure. To accelerate the transition from here, however, will require co-ordination across the financial landscape of investors, banks, service providers and regulators.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at recent  stock market rotations and whether ESG strategies might continue to suffer at the hands of  surging commodity demand. Some indicators are warning of a potential slowdown which  could have wide-ranging implications for both value and growth sectors. In the Chatter,  Cornelia Andersson of LSEG discusses the global M&A landscape and whether the recent  pullback in ESG strategies has dented institutional demand for sustainable investing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the onset of the rate hiking cycle and the additional re-pricing that has taken place since the first hike. Yield curves are inverting, but should we follow the usual sequencing of the last 30 years? In the Chatter, Kiran Ganesh of UBS Wealth Management outlines the prospects for rates and a few diversification strategies.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Garett Lim uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at a number of indicators that suggest that China may be embarking on an era of more sustainable growth. Last year proved to be a challenging one for Chinese equities, with growth concerns around Common Prosperity weighing on investor sentiment. The all-important property and technology sectors were hit, with the further threat of state intervention looming over the latter. But are we beginning to see signs of an economic transformation towards more sustainable growth in 2022? That's The Big Conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at a growing number of indicators that suggest a potential paradigm shift in commodity prices might already be impacting consumer behaviour. Applying the familiar “FAANG” moniker to commodities, we look at the dynamics of Fuels, Aerogspace, Agriculture, Nuclear and Gold as “FAANG 2.0”. We highlight the potential implications for not only consumers but also investor portfolios, as the shift in commodity prices ripple through global financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the surge in commodity prices and the flattening yield curve, both of which have historically been precursors to recession. What can policy makers do and is a recession now inevitable? The Chatter looks at how policy makers, who were looking to tighten, will now respond to the inflation that is difficult to control with interest rates.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Garett Lim uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at a growing number of indicators which suggest that China could be about to see a return to growth. As many of the world's major central banks battle to bring inflation under control by hiking rates, China's dovish policy pivot presents an intriguing divergence. We highlight the potential implications for not only investors in Asia, but also global markets, as the effects of China's credit cycle ripple through commodities and developed economies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at a growing number of lead indicators that suggest policymakers may be behind the curve on inflation. As the Fed continues to tell us that they are “data dependent”, the growing question is whether they are looking at the right indicators. With markets becoming increasingly volatile in recent weeks, we identify some of the reasons for the growing unease amongst investors by looking at competing signals coming from the business cycle and inflation data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the rapid repricing of interest rate expectations. The US is expecting around six hikes and even the ECB is being priced at two. Has the hiking hysteria now reached a peak? In the Chatter, we look at developments in the European carbon market.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week LSEG's Garett Lim talks to Steve Brice, CIO of Standard Chartered Bank Wealth Management, about US interest rate expectations, the outlook for Chinese stocks and the impact of oil on Asia's economies. Inflation is expected to peak soon but remain elevated throughout the year. Gold has been struggling but it still has a key role to play in portfolio diversification.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Real Vision's Jamie McDonald examines how Fed policy makers awill djust the course of their signaled tightening cycle if equity weakness continues. Or, in other words, what is the strike of the fabled fed put? At last week's FOMC meeting, the Fed surprised many by holding strong on hawkish policy and so investors learned that the Fed Put isn't struck at a measly 10% down from the highs. So this begs the question: how low do markets have to go before the Fed begins to react, and with inflation now public enemy number one, is the equity market really where investors should be looking anyway? With that question in mind, McDonald highlights the Refinitiv data investors need to be watching to help determine whether the Fed is indeed hiking into a growth slowdown. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the similarities of the post-expiry bounce this week and the market lows that appeared on the first trading day after a major expiry in 2018 and 2020. Whilst there are many common features, the policy stance of the Fed and the involvement of retail investors are two potentially decisive differences between then and now.   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the state of the economy as we approach the US tightening cycle. Whilst many indicators are still elevated, some have started to roll over. Over the last decade, the end of QE has often coincided with a peak in bond yields. Is the same about to happen again?   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the potential market response when the Fed finally ends QE. Bond yields and growth expectations have historically fallen after QE has ended. Should it be different this time?   See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices