Podcasts about Strategic Petroleum Reserve

//The Wire//2300Z July 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CENTCOM CONFIRMS FOUR AMERICAN CASUALTIES FOLLOWING IRANIAN STRIKES IN MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK REPORTED AT FEDERAL BUILDING IN NYC.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Jordan: Over the weekend CENTCOM confirmed the deaths of three US service members, who were killed as a result of the strikes on a barracks building at Muwaffaq al Salti Airbase. Two of the casualties have been identified as 1LT Tyler James Feehan, and Private Isabella Gonzales. The third casualty officially remains classified as Missing in Action as the remains will require DNA analysis to confirm identity, and has not yet been officially identified. A fourth casualty was also reported somewhere in Iraq, which was the result of an Iranian drone strike.Middle East: Following Iranian targeting of the al-Subiya Power Station, Kuwait has begun to rely on portable substations and generators to provide electricity while repairs are made. The scale of the power outages is not known, but Iranian forces have struck several logistical hubs and electrical power plants over the past few days. In Bahrain, Iranian targeting has remained heavy over the weekend, with several ballistic missile strikes reported at American installations around the country.Strait of Hormuz: Several more merchant vessels were struck over the past few days, most of which were tankers attempting to use the southern Omani route instead of the Iranian route. At least one of these vessels resulted in the crew abandoning ship before being rescued.Iran: After these collective strikes over the weekend, American targeting efforts intensified with the latest bombing campaign focusing on the targeting of bridges and civilian roadway tunnels around Bandar Abbas. Many of the roads that lead to the port city are now cut off, with only a few major roadways allowing access to the city. Several bridges have also already been repaired, and the status of others remains unclear until better satellite imagery is available.-HomeFront-New York: This morning an arson attack was reported at the Federal building in downtown Manhattan. One assailant approached the building with a bucket of gasoline, dumping the bucket at the northeast side of the structure. The suspect immediately ignited the pool of gas, which also contained a mix of commercial grade fireworks. The suspect was immediately detained by the plethora of police already on scene, as the accelerant burned on the sidewalk. Analyst Comment: No motive has yet been conveyed regarding this attack, however some of the paraphernalia scattered throughout the scene of the attack appears to be political in nature, opposing ICE.Washington D.C. - This morning, the latest numbers for Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels were released indicating that over the past week, the US has drained the SPR by an additional 5.1 million barrels, to it's lowest level since the Tanker War in 1983.Analyst Comment: Many might have assumed that the US might have re-stocked the SPR during the two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, however very little oil actually made it out of the region during that time, which amounted to only a tiny fraction of US daily usage. Since the war began five months ago, only a very small percentage of oil has exited the region, and the US has been draining the SPR at breakneck pace in order to keep the country going.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Concerning the American casualties sustained over the weekend, it is extremely important to note that the deaths of 1LT Feehan and PVT Gonzales are officially classified under Operation INHERENT RESOLVE (OIR)...not under Operation EPIC FURY (OEFU). Inherent Resolve is the long-standing mission to combat ISIS in Syria, and not in any way linked to the current war in Iran. As a result, the true number of casualties sustained warrants further investigation. This classification could have been an administrative error, but this would also be a way of camouflaging casualty figures. The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) is the main database for logging all American casualties, which are defined by military operation. In this case, these deaths are not cataloged under either operation yet, adding to the more broad (but also growing) concerns that the database has been concealing the true number of casualties, specifically the numbers of personnel wounded.In fact, while admonishing these concerns as "baseless and malicious accusations" Assistant Secretary of War Sean Parnell directly contradicted the numbers his own department was producing. He stated in an interview with CBS News that roughly 100 personnel had been wounded throughout the war over the past month....while his own database states that a grand total of zero personnel had been wounded for the month of July, and three in June. If this testimony is accurate, this confirms beyond all doubt that the Pentagon is lying about the number of troops wounded during this campaign. Considering that the Pentagon has disclosed a total of 413x soldiers wounded during this entire campaign, ~100x WIA being reported within a month (which also included a two-week ceasefire) is alarming to say the least.The cause of the fatalities reported over the weekend is also important to note as these deaths were very likely preventable. In the days leading up to the ballistic missile striking the housing at this base, the Iranians successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, Iraq. This missile defense site would have been one of the sites providing protection for missiles launched into Jordan. With this battery offline or at least degraded in some way, it is possible that a clear air corridor existed that allowed Iranian ballistic missiles to fly unchallenged through a gap in air defense coverage. If the Erbil strike also damaged the radar array, it is also very possible that the warning time for an incoming ballistic missile would have been reduced, so any defenses at the target base would have been less effective. Obviously, the true scale of the damage to this air defense site would be classified, so in the public eye we have to guess as to how bad it was based on blurry satellite imagery. However the military commanders who knew the systems and did NOT have to guess, were also the same commanders who had the authority to either issue warnings or orders to disperse from the unprotected Containerized Housing Units (CHUs) that were struck by Iran. The failure of command to disperse their soldiers is what led to these fatalities.The very minute that the Patriot battery was struck in Erbil was a major clue that the Iranians were conducting shaping fires of their own...they were striking the air defense sites so as to open up a gap in air defense coverage, and reach out to American positions with their larger ballistic missiles.Though it is usually in poor taste to reflect on failures in the immediate aftermath of the death of troops, in the interest of expediency sometimes uncomfortable conversations must be had in order to prevent further loss of life. If a gap in air defense coverage is what allowed this strike to happen, it is almost certain that this gap still exists and that the danger to American service members is still not mitigated. For ALL American troops in the Middle East, this observation must be noted: If the Iranians are striking air defense sites, the next assumption must be that the Iranians are planning to strike something that would have been protected by that site. In retrospect this is common sense, but even at this very moment, the continued strikes on American positions (and the nearly total lack of fortification efforts at these bases, even to this day) continues to indicate that the Iranian targeting efforts are not being taken seriously by senior American decision makers. Five months into this war, CENTCOM leadership has still not figured out that the Iranians can strike their bases at will, and as demonstrated by the strikes in Kuwait and Jordan, the US is still not digging in, and also not dispersing enough to avoid troops getting killed. No underground fortification efforts have been undertaken at any base in the Middle East, and satellite imagery indicates that no substantial fortifications have been undertaken either. Granting as much leeway to the Pentagon's decision making process as possible, it is possible that no hardening of defenses would have mattered considering the missiles Iran is launching. Drone defense is one thing, but it would take years to build a bunker that would withstand the impact of an Iranian Fattah or Ghadr missile. Nevertheless, when it comes to defending American positions, doing something is better than doing nothing, and concrete does not take half a year to dry.Even if large-scale construction projects are off the menu, ALL military publications, textbooks, and training scenarios dictate and demand what has been obvious since World War One...Dispersion is the name of the game. This is what kept casualties to a minimum in Bahrain, but different theater commanders have different personal initiatives. Some are more proactive with their defense, and others have done nothing at all, besides making sure that all of the vehicles in the motorpool are lined up neatly.Where this goes from here is anyone's guess, but unless radical and immediate changes are made, the United States will continue to suffer casualties. And as long as the bombing continues which is motivating Iran to target our bases, this indirectly highlights the deficiencies with American air defense technologies, not just for this war, but for the wars to come.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be72

FF: Physical vs. Governmental Constraints We have been draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the U.S. At some point, if they drain it too low, they will risk collapsing the salt caves that store it. This is a physical constraint. Copper mines can take decades to get permitted by the government, which is a governmental constraint. We talk about many other limits, whether they are physical or governmental, and how they can affect the average citizen. Bad decisions lead to bad results. We cover AI and data centers, electric, wastewater regulations, kickbacks, and budgets. More people need to wake up and see what is happening in the world, so they can make decisions based on physical restrictions. There are many ways to make money. It is important to always be congruent in how you live your life and in what you invest in. Use the information in this episode to help make better decisions! Abolish Property Taxes in Ohio: www.AxOHTax.com  Get more information about abolishing all property taxes in Ohio. https://citizensforpropertytaxreform.org/ Our Links: www.RealPowerFamily.com Info@RealPowerFamily.com 833-Be-Do-Have (833-233-6428

Ellen Wald examines how tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could impact crude oil prices and global energy markets. She discusses China's oil demand, the role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and how diplomatic efforts or prolonged conflict could shape the outlook for energy markets.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week: two audio essays, on one big Iran cluster-frig. In the Collingwood corner: Donald Trump has become an unreadable politician. His credibility has burst through various levels of ‘madman theory' negotiating prowess, into a place where it may not even be clear to his most intimate subordinates where his true intent begins and ends. The result is that US policy is now a broken sail, flapping in the wind. Originally, America had four aims: dismantle Iran's nuclear programme, cap its missiles and drones, cut off its proxies, and change the regime. With nil-for-four, the window to credibly settle this beef is getting farther away – not closer. Meanwhile, chez Pilkington: The US now believes it can ‘print oil'. That the present attempt to jigger the markets by making use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and various ‘Whale of Hormuz' attempts to rig the options market are long-term sustainable. They are not, as Phil points out. What goes up must come down, and the slip-slide will not be pretty. Rather than a war of attrition, Pilko suggests, the oil price war has become the totality of conflict – a Baudrillardian quarrel over supremacy of a number – only secondarily underpinned by the drones and bombs of the Arabian Gulf. Yes, it's time to up the escitalopram – enter code HAPPYPILLS26 at checkout to redeem this offer.

The July 14, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report highlights shifting grain dynamics, regional crop conditions, and agricultural energy concerns amid escalating global conflicts. Market analyst Naomi Blohm notes that a recent shift to slightly cooler nighttime temperatures has taken some heat pressure out of corn and soybean prices, while wheat experiences a war premium driven by renewed tensions in the Black Sea region. Nationally, crop progress remains steady, though states west of the Mississippi—particularly Minnesota and Iowa—are significantly outperforming eastern Corn Belt states like Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Energy expert Susan Stroud addresses the growing volatility in the diesel market, explaining how supply crunches in Europe, domestic biofuel mandates, and the continued depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are squeezing fuel availability ahead of the fall harvest. Finally, meteorologist Don Day warns that a stubborn high-pressure ridge will sustain well-above-average temperatures and dry conditions across the northern tier and western Corn Belt for the next 10 to 12 days.01:15 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing07:30 USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report09:29 Crop Protection Network Disease Report10:47 AgriNext & Energies with Susan Stroud, No Bull Ag20:59 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather ★ Support this podcast ★

Trump goes from ceasefire language to “it's over” in a matter of hours, and the Strait of Hormuz becomes the pressure point again. Host Kyle Anzalone and guest LtCOL Karen Kwiatkowski walk through the reports of Iranian shots at transiting ships, the follow-on CENTCOM strikes, and what it means when a president talks like a full-scale war is on the table while the Pentagon still faces real constraints in ships, air defense, and weapons stockpiles. If you're trying to understand Iran, US military posture, and how quickly an MOU can unravel, this conversation lays out the incentives and the red flags in plain terms. We also pull on the thread most people miss: oil prices and energy security. We talk about why tanker flow does not snap back to “normal,” why insurance markets matter as much as missiles, and how Strategic Petroleum Reserve decisions can collide with the public story being told about stability. When leaders float the word “blockade,” shipping firms and underwriters do the math, and the result can be higher costs, slower trade, and more opportunity for miscalculation. Then we widen the map to Syria and Lebanon, including the stunning normalization of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and the idea of sending battle-hardened fighters toward Hezbollah. From there, we get into Israel's brewing conflict with Turkey, Trump's openness to F-35 sales to Erdogan, and why the jet is as much about control and lock-in as it is about performance. We close with a domestic warning about NDAA Section 219 and why calling Congress may be one of the few levers the public still has.

Apple is escalating its fight with OpenAI as questions grow over trade secrets, AI hardware, and whether the next generation of devices could threaten the iPhone's dominance.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI, why the timing matters as Tim Cook prepares to step aside, and how OpenAI's delayed IPO could make the company more vulnerable. They also discuss warnings from economists about AI-driven job losses, why retraining programs may struggle to keep up, how the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being strained by repeated drawdowns, what renewed pressure on oil supplies could mean for energy security, and why Disney's live-action remake strategy may be running out of steam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2f7C_7ZyG0 Recorded: July 9, 2026 In this post–Fourth of July episode of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis welcomes Hon. Jason Isaac back to the show for a wide-ranging discussion about global oil markets, geopolitical risk, American energy security, and the policies shaping energy affordability and reliability. Trisha begins with a market snapshot—WTI near $72 per barrel, Brent around $76 per barrel, and Henry Hub natural gas near $3 per MMBtu—before examining the renewed conflict involving Iran. Trisha and Jason discuss attacks on ships and military installations, continued crude movements through and around the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. vessel escorts, ship-to-ship transfers, trucking, and the growing pipeline infrastructure that could steadily reduce Iran's leverage over global oil flows. The conversation then expands to Russia's shadow tanker fleet, Ukrainian attacks on vessels and refining infrastructure, Venezuelan and Iranian crude exports, and India's growing role in refining Russian oil. Trisha explains why disrupting individual tankers and refineries matters, while cautioning that Russia still has multiple ways to move crude and obtain refined products. Trisha and Jason also break down the coordinated release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, emphasizing the difference between an exchange and an outright sale. They discuss the relationship between SPR drawdowns, U.S. crude exports, oil prices, and the eventual need to replenish strategic inventories. China is another major focus. Trisha challenges conventional estimates of Chinese oil demand and argues that China's ability to reduce imports may reflect years of aggressive stockpiling rather than a sudden drawdown of its reserves. They explore China's refined-product exports, its economic slowdown, its energy relationship with Russia, and the enormous influence Beijing continues to exercise across global energy markets. In the second half, the conversation turns to energy development in Africa, international financing, the World Bank, the U.S. Export-Import Bank, European energy policy, air-conditioning access, climate modeling, fuel taxes, climate litigation, the Texas power grid, Permian Basin natural gas, flaring restrictions, transmission spending, and the cost of integrating intermittent generation. Throughout the episode, Trisha and Jason make the case that abundant, affordable, and reliable energy is essential to economic development, national security, and human flourishing. Prepared from the supplied episode transcript.  Key Topics Why crude continued moving despite disruption concerns in the Strait of Hormuz Pipeline projects and alternative transportation routes around the strait Iran's shrinking leverage over regional oil exports Russian shadow tankers and Ukrainian attacks on refining infrastructure The Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange and its impact on exports and prices U.S. crude production approaching 14 million barrels per day China's oil imports, stockpiling strategy, demand, and refined-product exports Energy investment, corruption, and infrastructure development in Africa International financing for coal, natural gas, and energy development European heat, air-conditioning access, and electricity reliability Climate modeling, RCP8.5, and the “They Knew” research project California fuel taxes and the consumer cost of climate mandates Climate litigation involving energy companies Texas transmission projects and the cost of integrating wind, solar, and batteries Permian Basin natural gas, power generation, ESG commitments, and flaring

On this episode of the MeidasTouch Podcast, Ben, Brett, and Jordy break down the escalating and unlawful war on Iran as Trump threatens to wipe out the country's electric grid, water supply, and civilian infrastructure, all while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve nears emergency tank-bottom levels and the Pentagon barrels toward its own budget crisis. The guys unpack the collapsed MOU, Iran's strategy of running out the clock through the Strait of Hormuz, and the tens of millions who turned out for the Ayatollah's funeral procession, directly contradicting Trump officials' claims that it's all "astroturf." Plus, a disastrous NATO summit where Trump confuses Zelenskyy for Putin, role-plays as the Russian president, threatens to invade a NATO ally over Greenland, and rants about his ability to be "the greatest communist ever," followed by the White House's unhinged, expletive-laden attack on MeidasTouch's own editor. It's a full breakdown of the lies, the escalation, and the sheer chaos of the Trump regime. Subscribe to Meidas+ at https://meidasplus.com Get Meidas Merch: https://store.meidastouch.com Deals from our sponsors!  BetterHelp: This is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at https://BetterHelp.com/MEIDAS today to get 10% off your first month and get on your way to being your best self! HIMS: Visit https://hims.com/meidas to get simple, online access to personalized, affordable care for ED, Hair Loss, Weight Loss, and more. Armra: Head to https://tryarmra.com/meidas or enter promo code: MEIDAS to receive 30% off your first order! DeleteMe: Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to https://joindeleteme.com/MEIDAS and use promo code MEIDAS at checkout. Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast The Ken Harbaugh Show: https://meidasnews.com/tag/the-ken-harbaugh-show The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show Burn the Boats: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/burn-the-boats Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What's the deal with Qatar Force One? Graham Platner is out. How soon before he's a Fox News contributor complaining about the Democratic Party? Donald's war against the Islamic Republican of Japan. Endless war is back on the table. "They're liars. They're cuckoo." The most under-reported story of the week: Donald sent Iranian asylum seekers back Iran for some reason. Status of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. NO! Donald hasn't ended 8 wars. Freedom Fuel?? Donald demands a do-over on birthright citizenship. David Hearn, the ex-Olympian charged with vandalism, pleads not guilty. With Jody Hamilton, David Ferguson, music by MilkMaiden, Michael McDermott, and more! Brought to you by Russ Rybicki, SharePower Responsible Investing. Support our sponsors and get free shipping at Quince.com/bob and bollandbranch.com/bob!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets outlines what could potentially go wrong and disrupt markets' optimism this summer.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, discussing three things that could disrupt a quiet summer. It's Wednesday, July 8th at noon in New York. As markets turn the page toward the second half of the year, there are lots of reasons for optimism. Global growth remains solid. Earnings growth is strong, and broadening across more companies. Capital markets remain open and deal activity is robust. We continue to think that the best analogy for current conditions is something like 1997 through 1998 or 2005 through 2006 – periods where corporate aggression was increasing, and had further to go, leading to equities outperforming credit. Even more immediately, July also happens to be one of the best months of the year for markets. And while one should never base their entire investment strategy on how far the earth has travelled around the sun, this month has been the best month for the U.S. High Yield returns, by far, over the last 15 years. The last time the S&P 500 fell in the month of July was 2014. So given all that, what could go wrong? Well, here are three things that are on our mind. First, a key part of our most optimistic view is that U.S. inflation will be lower than the Federal Reserve expects in the second half of this year, leading them to leave interest rates unchanged, rather than raise rates as the market expects. The risk is that this assumption is just wrong, perhaps soon. There is certainly an argument that, if the Fed is worried about inflation, it shouldn't wait to act, and the market is currently placing roughly 1-in-3 chance that the Fed hikes rates on July 29th. If that happens – and again, our base case is it does not – it could drive volatility. Second is earnings season, which kicks off next week. While the general trend of earnings is important, the bigger focus is likely to be on the results of large U.S. tech companies, and in particular, how much they plan to spend building out AI infrastructure. Over the last several quarters, almost like clockwork, these spending estimates have been revised higher and higher. And that has helped boost confidence in AI – as the spending is a sign that the technology holds promise – as well as boosting the broader earnings outlook; since all of this spending is becoming other company's revenue. Our base-case remains that this AI spending cycle has further to run, with capex from the major U.S. hyperscalers rising from over $800bn of spending this year to roughly $1.2 trillion of spending next year. But the risk would be that second quarter earnings now show more hesitation to spend, maybe because the share prices of some of these big spenders have been recent underperformers. And given how much the current growth and earnings story is linked to AI, and how popular AI exposure is with investors, that would create a risk. Finally, there's Iran. Our base case assumes a gradual renormalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and we forecast Brent oil at about $75/bbl in 12 months time, which is pretty similar to current levels. But as of this recording there were reports of renewed hostilities, and the ceasefire may be fragile. The U.S. has already drawn down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest-ever levels, potentially reducing some ability to absorb shocks if the conflict re-escalates. Historically, July tends to be strong, and markets have a number of helpful tailwinds at their back. But an unexpected rate hike, an unexpected reduction in Hyperscaler Capex, and a resumption of the Iran conflict are three factors that are not in our base-case – and could disrupt that. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. Also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Starting off July on a Wobble SpaceX added to NAZ100 Oil prices drifting lower – Gas at the pump? JOBS Number – Odd Move Saylor is selling Bitcoin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - JOBS Number - Odd Move - Saylor is selling Bitcoin! - VEGGIE ALERT! - US RESUMES POWERFUL STRIKES ON IRAN (Is this still a ceasefire?) Markets - Starting off July on a Wobble - SpaceX added to NAZ100 - Oil prices drifting lower - Gas at the pump? - Oracle - Canary? World Cup? - USA is out... (Bad goalie move last night) IRAN - Looks like war is back on - at least for tonight - Oil rises about 3% on the news - US revokes Iran's ability to sell oil around the world - Markets don't seem overly concerned - VIX still low at 16 - Odds that this will be more than a quick in and out? --- Could it be that Iran was waiting until after the Funeral? JOBS COOL, FED STILL HOT - June payrolls came in at +57,000, well under the +110,000 estimate. - April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. - Unemployment slipped to 4.2%, but not for the best reason: the labor force shrank by 720,000 people. - Labor-force participation fell to 61.5%, the lowest in more than five years. - Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs, a notable hit to the consumer-service economy. - Average hourly earnings rose $0.13 in June. - Fed setup: weaker hiring argues for patience, but inflation is still above target, so the market is back to parsing every Fed sentence. - - Fed Funds Futures Now only ONE Raise by Year-End DOW RECORD, NASDAQ WOBBLE - The Dow closed at a record 52,900.07 after the soft jobs report cooled near-term rate-hike fear. - S&P 500 finished roughly flat. - Nasdaq fell about 0.8% as chip stocks dragged the tape lower. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 5% on July 2. - Apple rose nearly 5% on iPhone launch optimism. - Nvidia and other AI/chip names stayed volatile after a huge first-half run. - Goldman client data showed hedge funds dumped tech hardware and semiconductor exposure for a fourth straight week. - The issue is not "AI is dead"; the issue is when all the AI capex turns into visible returns. TESLA BEATS DELIVERIES, STOCK STILL GETS HIT - Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, a record quarter and above Wall Street expectations. - Production was 451,758 vehicles. - Model 3/Y made up 467,762 deliveries. - Other models were only 12,364. - Energy storage deployments were 13.5 GWh. - Shares fell about 7.5% after the report, the worst one-day drop in roughly a year. - Pressure points: margin worries, price cuts, demand sustainability, and the market questioning whether the EV story is enough at a very rich valuation. - As of Monday afternoon, TSLA was around $420 with a market cap near $1.49 trillion and a trailing P/E around 385. MORE MUSK - TESLA PUTS AI ON A BUDGET - Tesla reportedly capped employee spending on third-party AI tools at $200 per week starting July 6. - Grok was reportedly exempt from the cap. - Setup: Tesla wants employees using AI, but not running up unlimited outside-token bills. - Cost-control angle: AI is becoming a normal operating expense, not a science project. - Funny part: even at Tesla, the AI bill apparently needs a limiter. NVIDIA SERVER DELAY NOISE - Nvidia shares held up despite reports of delays tied to its next AI server architecture. - SemiAnalysis reportedly said Nvidia's Kyber architecture could slip by up to 12 months into 2028. - Nvidia pushed back and said its development roadmap is unchanged. - Mizuho called the delay report "noise" and said it was not a material issue for the stock. - NOTE:  Story is still report-driven, not company-confirmed. ORACLE - CANARY? - Oracle's stock fell 19% this week, the steepest drop since August 2001, the depths of the dot-com bust. - The company's capital expenditures surged 162% in the latest fiscal year, with almost $24 billion in negative free cash flow and $130 billion in debt. - Co-founder Larry Ellison has fallen behind the Google co-founders, Amazon's Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell on the list of the world's richest people. - After the company reached a peak market cap of $900 billion in September, on enthusiasm about Oracle's AI customers, the stock has lost about 55% of its value. - The crux of the problem is that for Oracle to fulfill its AI infrastructure commitment, primarily to OpenAI, it's having to raise record amounts of debt, creating balance sheet risk while focusing on lower-margin offerings. SPACEX ENTERS THE INDEX MACHINE - SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday after its recent IPO. - The company's valuation is around $2.1 trillion. - Its Nasdaq-100 weight will initially be under 1% because of limited public float. - Index-tracking funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 will need exposure, creating automatic demand. - Key issue: big valuation, small float, forced index buying. - Watch the lockup calendar: index inclusion can create near-term demand, but employee and insider selling later can change the supply picture. - Podcast angle: retail gets "SpaceX exposure" through QQQ, but not necessarily much exposure at first. STRATEGY SELLS BITCOIN TO PAY THE BILLS - Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin last week for about $216 million. - Proceeds are being used for preferred-stock dividends and dollar reserves. - The company still holds 843,775 bitcoin, valued around $52 billion. - Q2 included an $8.32 billion paper loss tied to bitcoin weakness. - The company's average bitcoin purchase price is around $75,476. - Recent sale prices were around $59,000 to $61,000. - Funny part: the former "never sell" bitcoin treasury poster child is now selling bitcoin to service the capital structure. - Watch for copycats: any company that copied the bitcoin-treasury model may face the same liquidity math if crypto stays weak. MICROSOFT CUTS AGAIN - Microsoft said it will cut about 4,800 jobs. - Shares slipped nearly 1%. - Job cuts landed while investors are still rewarding AI spending. - The message? spend heavy on AI, cut elsewhere. --- Yes, AI is killing jobs... SERVICES HOLD AT 54 - ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0. - Result matched expectations. - Reading above 50 means services activity is still expanding. - Market took it as firm enough for growth, not hot enough to force an immediate Fed move. EARNINGS SEASON STARTER - Delta and PepsiCo report this week. - Levi Strauss also reports this week. - Delta is the read on travel, premium demand, fuel, and consumer resilience. - PepsiCo is the read on snack pricing, volume, and lower-income consumer pressure. - Q2 earnings bar is high after the market's strong second-quarter rally. OIL BACK TO PRE-IRAN WAR LEVELS - Brent settled around $71.99. - WTI settled around $68.55. - OPEC+ approved another output-target increase for August, adding 188,000 barrels per day. - Since April, planned increases add up to nearly 800,000 barrels per day. - Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, taking some geopolitical premium out of the market. - Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices, another sign the market is shifting from shortage panic to buyer resistance. - Good for headline inflation if it sticks; bad for energy bulls who were pricing war-premium oil. SPR DRAWDOWN - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.2 million barrels. - SPR level is now 319.5 million barrels. - That is the lowest level since April 1983. - Drawdown comes while oil prices are easing and OPEC+ is adding supply. - Energy setup: lower crude helps inflation, but reserve levels are historically thin. MORE OIL - CHINA BUYS THE DIP - China stepped up Middle East oil purchases as prices fell. - Saudi Arabia cut export prices to Asia to a six-year low. - Brent settled at $71.99. - WTI settled at $68.55. - OPEC+ approved another August production increase of 188,000 barrels per day. - Planned OPEC+ supply increases since April now total nearly 800,000 barrels per day. - Lower oil supports disinflation but raises questions about global demand. VEGGIE ALERT Item Status Asparagus ESCALATED Artichokes EXTREME Cantaloupe EXTREME Fennel (Anise) EXTREME Green Leaf / Red Leaf Lettuce ESCALATED Honeydews EXTREME Iceberg Lettuce EXTREME Limes (175's and larger) ESCALATED Green Bell Peppers ESCALATED Romaine Lettuce EXTREME Romaine Hearts EXTREME White Asparagus ESCALATED Snacking Tomatoes (Grape & Cherry) ESCALATED   PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT - Conair Recalls Over One Million Cuisinart Grill Brushes Due to Ingestion Hazard - Product: Metal Wire Bristle Grill Brushes - 1 Million or so - BUT none of these are any good..... CHINA NOT MESSING AROUND - A Chinese court handed a rare death sentence to a former official on corruption charges, in a severe punishment underscoring the intensity of President Xi Jinping's anti-graft crackdown. - Yang Youlin, a former vice director of an economic zone in the eastern city of Nanjing, was sentenced to death on Monday for taking more than 2.21 billion yuan ($325 million) of bribes between 2013 and 2023, according to the state broadcaster China Central Television. - Yang was found guilty also of embezzlement, abuse of power and money laundering. His crimes were “exceptionally grave” and caused massive losses, warranting the capital sentence, CCTV reported, citing the Changzhou Intermediate People's Court in Jiangsu province. DRONES - Dronemaker AeroVironment reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines. - The company's funded backlog of $1.2 billion was up substantially over last year, but grew only slightly from the $1.1 billion last quarter. - Autonomous systems were a strong point with revenue of $492 million that beat the $402 million StreetAccount expectation.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

We are burning through our emergency oil cushion and pretending everything is fine.According to our next guest, America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at its **lowest level since 1983**—essentially back to where it was while it was still being filled.

Donald Trump's growing crypto wealth is raising new questions about conflicts of interest while serving as President. In this video we examine reports surrounding Trump-linked crypto projects, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, weak employment data, silver prices, and what these developments could mean for the U.S. economy.Join the RTD Telegram community here: https://t.me/+US-jrRt-WsohwyD-

You won't want to miss this episode with Jack Prandelli from Switzerland. As an international trader and Substack Author, Jack has been on target with his articles on global oil and Gas Markets. Check out The Merchant News Substack: https://themerchantsnews.substack.com/Follow Jack on X @jackprandelliConnect with Jack on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/prandelligiacomo/1. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) Supply & GeopoliticsThe hosts discuss Shell's report on increasing LNG demand and how the U.S. is positioning itself as the world's most reliable LNG supplier. Key points include:Damage to Qatar's Ras Lafanne facility (70% production loss) has shifted market dynamicsThe U.S. is signing long-term LNG contracts with Asian clients, displacing QatarEurope faces competition with Asia for U.S. LNG supplies due to lost Russian gasThis represents a major geopolitical win for the U.S.2. Critical Minerals & Copper Supply ChainExtensive discussion on copper's critical role in energy transition and manufacturing:Copper is essential for AI, green energy, and electrificationChina controls over 50% of global copper refining capacity, creating strategic dependencyThe U.S. lacks domestic processing infrastructure despite abundant lithium reservesThis supply chain vulnerability gives China significant leverage over Western economies3. Oil Prices & Trump's StrategyAnalysis of Trump's focus on lowering oil prices before midterm elections:Discussion of the "crack spread" (refining margin) and why lower crude prices don't immediately translate to lower gas pricesStrategic use of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for exports and refiningComparison with China and India's government pressure on refineries to keep prices lowThe importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz for oil transit4. India's Rising Oil Demand & Russia-India PartnershipIndia emerges as a critical player in global energy markets:India will lead global oil demand growth by 2050India increasingly imports Russian oil despite sanctionsA strategic partnership is forming where Russia exports crude to Indian refineries, which then supply Russia with refined productsThis relationship reduces Russia's dependence on China5. Geopolitical Realignment & Energy DominanceBroader discussion of shifting global power dynamics:The U.S. is reasserting control over South American oil resources (Venezuela, Argentina)China's strategic oil reserves strategy and patient approach to purchasingThe fragmentation of the world into competing trading blocs (U.S., China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia)Soft power and hard power strategies in energy markets6. California's Energy Crisis & Renewable FailuresA cautionary case study on premature green energy transition:California's net-zero policies have devastated oil production (from 2,000 wells/year to 17 in 2025)Refining costs in California ($15/barrel) are 3x higher than Texas ($5/barrel)California now imports 40-60% of its diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline from AsiaOnly 6-7 refineries remain (down from 38), with more slated to close7. Renewable Energy Reality CheckCritical analysis of the renewable energy transition timeline:$10.2 trillion spent on wind and solar has only yielded 3% energy gainCurrent battery storage technology is insufficient for grid-scale implementationNuclear energy is more reliable but faces uranium supply chain concernsThe hosts advocate for lowest-cost, lowest-environmental-impact energy solutions8. Strategic Energy IndependenceOverarching theme about national security:Energy security must start at home with domestic productionEnergy dominance is demonstrated through exportsOver-reliance on foreign supply chains (especially China) creates vulnerabilitiesThe U.S. should leverage its oil and gas advantages while developing nuclear capacityThe podcast emphasizes that global energy markets are in flux, with the U.S. reasserting dominance, new trading blocs forming, and critical mineral/metal supply chains becoming geopolitical battlegrounds. The hosts argue that premature abandonment of fossil fuels without adequate alternatives is economically and strategically dangerous.Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/

Mike Madrid (Author of The Latino Century) joins Host Ron Steslow to dive into how populism is consuming both parties and the institutions meant to contain them, from a socialist sweep in New York to a building debt-and-oil crisis. They begin with New York's primaries, where DSA-aligned candidates won and Zohran Mamdani emerged as a kingmaker—signaling the Democratic party's “Tea Party moment.”  From there, they ask whether the party is radicalizing or whether its establishment wing is the last refuge of institutional conservatism Then they trace an oil crisis to a draining Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the rising cost of servicing the national debt, and the first moves of new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. Finally, they map the vise closing on the White House before the midterms: a standoff with Iran, a depleting reserve, and a choice between a weak deal and economic shock. In Politicology+, they discuss Mike's invitation to the Oxford Union, where he argued the position that Donald Trump has betrayed the conservative movement.  POLITICOLOGY+ Not yet a Politicology+ member? Don't miss all the extra episodes on the private, ad-free version of this podcast. Upgrade now at politicology.com/plus. SPONSORS & PROMO CODES: https://bit.ly/44uAGZ8 Send your questions and ideas to podcast@politicology.com Ron Steslow on X: https://x.com/RonSteslow Mike Madrid on X: https://x.com/madrid_mike Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

https://youtu.be/B4L-5KNiqNo Recorded: June 21, 2026 In Episode 159 of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and host of the PetroNerds Podcast, delivers a wide-ranging market update on oil, natural gas, geopolitics, China, strategic petroleum reserves, inflation, and monetary policy. Recorded on Father's Day and ahead of America's 250th Fourth of July celebration, the episode focuses on the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the Strait of Hormuz, global crude oil flows, China's oil imports, and the Federal Reserve's renewed emphasis on inflation. Trisha examines why oil prices moved lower despite heightened geopolitical tensions, how more crude continued reaching the market through Hormuz and alternative export routes, and why physical oil flows matter more than headlines. Key Takeaways Oil prices softened as crude continued flowing through and around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the UAE's export infrastructure helped reduce supply risks during the latest Middle East tensions. China's crude import decline does not necessarily indicate collapsing demand and must be viewed alongside stockpiling, refinery activity, and energy-security priorities. The debate between the IEA and OPEC reflects competing views of future oil demand and supply balances. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a stronger focus on inflation and price stability. AI-driven investment and rising electricity demand may contribute to future inflationary pressures. Oil Flows, Hormuz, and Energy Security A major theme throughout the episode is the disconnect between market sentiment and physical oil realities. Trisha walks listeners through the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, disputed claims surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and the market reaction to evolving events in the Middle East. The conversation examines how Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and the UAE's Fujairah pipeline provide critical export capacity outside the Strait of Hormuz, helping maintain crude flows during periods of disruption. Trisha also reviews Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, U.S. crude exports, tanker traffic, and the importance of understanding actual barrel movements in a 100-million-barrel-per-day global oil market. Why China Remains the Most Important Energy Story One of the central themes of the episode is China and its long-term energy-security strategy. Trisha challenges the narrative that declining Chinese crude imports are solely the result of electric vehicle adoption. Instead, she examines China's stockpiling activity, refinery runs, strategic reserves, domestic production, and energy-security priorities. The discussion highlights why understanding China remains critical to understanding global oil markets, particularly as Beijing balances economic challenges with long-term strategic planning. The IEA, OPEC, and the Future of Oil Demand The episode also explores the growing divide between the International Energy Agency and OPEC. Trisha reviews the IEA's June Oil Market Report and the possibility that restored production and normalized Hormuz flows could create a future supply overhang. She contrasts that outlook with OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2026, which projects continued growth in global oil demand through 2050. The discussion raises important questions about energy security, investment, and whether current market forecasts are adequately accounting for future demand growth. Inflation, the Federal Reserve, and AI In the second half of the podcast, Trisha shifts to macroeconomics and monetary policy. She breaks down the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Chairman Kevin Warsh's first press conference, inflation data, Treasury yields, housing, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Trisha also discusses the potential inflationary effects of rising investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductors, data centers, and electricity demand. The episode concludes with a broader discussion on inflation, energy prices, housing, and the economic forces likely to shape markets through the remainder of 2026. Whether you're an energy executive, investor, policymaker, or industry professional, Episode 159 provides a timely and data-driven examination of the forces shaping oil markets, inflation, energy security, and the global economy.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Colonel Douglas Macgregor to the show. Douglas is a Retired U.S. Army Colonel and a Decorated Combat Veteran. In their discussion, Macgregor assesses the leaked 14-point MOU between Iran and the United States as an admission of strategic defeat, signaling that Iran has emerged victorious from the conflict. He emphasizes that the war is not over, predicting Israel will soon resume its offensive, prompting an Iranian counterattack and forcing President Trump to reengage militarily, albeit briefly, before ultimately disengaging. Macgregor argues that the United States was doomed to lose due to Iran's mastery of integrated surveillance and strike capabilities, which render traditional naval and air superiority ineffective without robust ground forces, a capability he claims the U.S. currently lacks. Shifting to economic implications, Macgregor advises a focus on energy, metals, minerals, fertilizer, and food as the only secure investments in the current climate, dismissing AI and SpaceX as speculative bubbles. He warns that the Strait of Hormuz remains at risk, ensuring oil prices will surge again as global demand outpaces supply, with countries racing to build strategic reserves. The depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the potential for further conflict will drive inflation and economic instability, likening the coming effects to a tsunami. He foresees a structural reset where American military hegemony retreats, leading to the collapse of artificial state boundaries in the Middle East and the rise of Iran and Turkey as dominant regional powers, which will reshape alliances and likely end Israel’s long-term viability. Macgregor also discusses the financial front, projecting that gold will reemerge as the ultimate reserve currency, with prices potentially reaching $10,000, while Bitcoin may serve as a transactional alternative to the dollar. He underscores that the geopolitical shifts will redirect American focus inward, forcing a painful but necessary reorientation toward domestic prosperity and core industries. Overall, his analysis presents a bleak near-term outlook marked by military defeat, economic disruption, and profound global realignment. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:45 – Iran US MOU Assessment 00:06:00 – Energy Metals Commodity Focus 00:08:50 – Oil Prices and Reserves 00:11:50 – Rise of Iran & Turkey 00:20:14 – Trump Pressures & MOU 00:23:30 – Gold and Bitcoin Outlook 00:27:56 – U.S. Strategic Petro Reserve 00:31:38 – Sulphuric Acid, Urea, & Ag. 00:34:47 – Use of Ground Forces? 00:37:08 – Gold In A Tsunami 00:38:50 – Purchasing Power Gold & BTC 00:40:01 – Substack and Final Remarks 00:42:11 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://douglasmacgregor.com X: https://x.com/DougAMacgregor YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@douglasmacgregorTV Articles: https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/ Substack: https://substack.com/@coloneldoug Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant. Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia. Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army's largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor's recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew. In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor's concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces. Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.

SpaceX shares trade lower for the first time since the company's public debut, raising questions about what comes next. We break down what the options market is signaling about investor expectations for the stock. Plus, HPE CEO Antonio Neri joins the show to discuss the company's new partnership with Nvidia and how it plans to capitalize on the growing demand for AI infrastructure. And new government data shows the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, as energy security and oil markets remain in the spotlight. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was apparently signed over the weekend, but the text remains a mystery to most. Donald Trump says he'll release it and even read it himself so nobody can misunderstand it. If it's such good news, though, why not put it out right now? Israel isn't a fan of it, nor are those who believe we've abandoned the Iranian people by making a deal with the IRGC. At the same time, there may be a silent majority that cares less about the politics and more about the price at the pump. And that's what caught my attention.Since the beginning of May, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, gas prices in the United States have fallen. Not by a little, but by a lot. The national average has gone from roughly $4.50 a gallon to $3.50. That happened while the strait was closed and before any memorandum of understanding was announced. The White House wasn't bragging about it. They weren't loudly telling Iran that the closure wasn't working. That made me think something else was going on.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.After digging through it, I've been able to dig up a few explanations. The most public, I'd argue, was the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Department of Energy released more than 53 million barrels as part of a broader international effort, bringing the reserve down to its lowest level since 1983. There were also reports that the United States was helping move oil out of the Gulf using some of the same techniques Iran has historically used to evade sanctions. American production remained high. Every hint of a peace deal pushed oil prices lower. Global demand softened. China sharply reduced its purchases on the open market. Alternative routes around Hormuz became more important. Gasoline inventories improved. All of it pushed prices down.If I rank the reasons, peace-talk optimism sits at the top. Strategic reserve releases bought time. American-supported workarounds moved real barrels. Demand destruction, especially with China stepping back, reduced pressure. Improved gasoline inventories helped. Some of the more speculative theories include sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, greater tolerance for shadow-fleet shipments, and alternate export routes making Hormuz less decisive than Iran hoped.What stands out is that there were more American incentives to get to the table than Iranian ones. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a temporary band-aid. Smuggling oil out of the Gulf is risky. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remained closed carried economic and military risks. That helps explain why the White House wanted a deal. Iran had incentives too, especially if China was no longer buying at previous levels, but the balance of pressure appears different than many expected.My assumption remains what it has been for weeks: there are multiple power centers inside Iran, and the biggest question is whether any deal can survive them. The Ayatollah is gone, much of Iran's leadership structure has been shattered, and the IRGC itself appears divided between factions willing to make a deal and hardliners who want to keep fighting. The memorandum of understanding may give us a clearer picture when we finally see it. Until then, the biggest question isn't whether a deal exists. It's whether anyone on the Iranian side can actually enforce it.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:38 - Iran and Gas Prices00:31:47 - Update00:32:04 - UFC 250 Terrorism Plot00:37:46 - Russia-Ukraine00:39:48 - Primaries00:42:48 - Interview with Maria Curi01:11:46 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

June 16, 2026 - Zach and Chase react to the newly announced Middle East deal, the collapse in oil prices, and why the market may be celebrating too quickly. They discuss the reopening of global energy flows, record inventory draws, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the SpaceX IPO, equity supply hitting the market, and why physical supply-and-demand dynamics may ultimately matter more than the headlines.

The Closing Market Report from June 9, 2026, details a recent sell-off in commodity markets, with corn, soybean, and wheat prices returning to January lows due to the current absence of a weather premium. The upcoming WASDE report is expected to reflect strong export sales and potential adjustments to old crop carryouts, while technical support levels suggest potential short-term recovery bounces. In agricultural news, the Senate is developing legislation for year-round E15 sales to match a recently passed House bill, and the shipping company Maersk has successfully tested 100% ethanol as a bunker fuel in Rotterdam. Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is projected to reach its lowest volume since the 1980s, and a Wisconsin farmland auction yielded nearly $22,000 per acre. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of large-scale data centers in the Midwest has prompted significant local and state regulatory pushback regarding energy and water consumption, leading to temporary development moratoriums and the proposed repeal of tax incentives in states such as Illinois and Michigan. Finally, the agricultural weather forecast predicts severe thunderstorms and heat across the northern plains and upper Midwest, which will shortly be followed by a transition to cooler, drier conditions driven by air masses from south-central Canada.- Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com- WILLAg News Update for June 9, 2026- Lawmakers Rush to Regulate Data Center Development- Ag Weather with Don Day, DayWeather.com ★ Support this podcast ★

* New Orleans has been working to clear a big backlog in cases in a slow-moving section of criminal court. How successful has the effort been? We'll break it down with Jesse Manley, the interim director of Court Watch NOLA. * The Strategic Petroleum Reserve could drop to levels not seen since the 1980s. What actually IS the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Where is it located?

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve could drop to levels not seen since the 1980s. What actually IS the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Where is it located? Eric Smith, a professor at Tulane's Institute of Energy, joins us.

Marty sits down with Chris Martenson to discuss rigged oil and futures markets, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve heading for tank bottom, the coming wave of inflation, and why hard assets are the only protection against a terminally broken financial system. Chris on X: https://x.com/CHMartenson Peak Prosperity: https://peakprosperity.com/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Graham Platner is leading Susan Collins in one of the most important Senate races in the country, and instead of asking how Democrats can win the seat, half the party seems busy feeding its own candidate into the purity machine.We break down the allegations against Platner, what he has admitted, what he denies, and why the political background of his most prominent accuser matters. We also talk about the larger question Democrats keep refusing to answer: what exactly is the standard?Because Donald Trump has 34 felony convictions, was found civilly liable for sexual abuse, owes millions in defamation damages, and is still treated by Republicans as perfectly fit to govern. But Graham Platner, a Marine combat veteran and PTSD survivor running against Susan Collins, gets treated like an extinction-level event by his own party.Also in this episode: Trump cries election fraud while his own candidates are winning in California, Pete Hegseth's Pentagon slashes recognized faiths and leans harder into Christian nationalism, Republicans briefly flinch at a $1.8 billion weaponization slush fund before protecting the possibility of bringing it back, Trump's White House ballroom donors rake in billions in federal contracts, and the House moves to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War.It is corruption, hypocrisy, purity politics, and institutional cowardice all the way down.Keywords: Graham Platner, Susan Collins, Maine Senate race, 2026 Senate election, Democratic Party, Democratic purity test, purity politics, Trump corruption, Donald Trump, Democratic double standard, Graham Platner allegations, Susan Collins Maine, Maine primary, Senate Democrats, Chuck Schumer, John Fetterman, Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna, Janet Mills, Project 2025, Heritage Foundation, Independent Women's Forum, Brett Kavanaugh, Trump felony convictions, E. Jean Carroll, Pete Hegseth, Department of War, Department of Defense, Christian nationalism, Pentagon religion policy, Trump election fraud claims, California primary, Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Trump ballroom, White House ballroom donors, federal contracts, weaponization fund, Democratic leadership, We Saw the Devil, political podcast, left wing politics, anti corruption, authoritarianism, media hypocrisy, Democratic infighting, Susan Collins challenger, Graham Platner Maine SenateBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/we-saw-the-devil-unfiltered-political-analysis--4433638/support.Website: http://www.wesawthedevil.comPatreon: http://www.patreon.com/wesawthedevilDiscord: https://discord.gg/X2qYXdB4Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/WeSawtheDevilInstagram: http://www.instagram.com/wesawthedevilpodcast.

The global economy is on high alert as oil prices continue to rise due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In this episode, our oil industry expert breaks down the latest developments and shares his insights on what's driving the market. From the Strait of Hormuz to the impact on California's oil supply, we're diving into the complex world of oil prices and their far-reaching effects on the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, has been a major point of contention between the US and Iran. The recent military strikes and retaliatory measures have sent oil prices soaring, with Brent crude reaching over $97 a barrel. But what does this mean for California's oil supply, and how will it affect the state's residents? Our expert weighs in on the latest developments and shares his predictions for the future of oil prices. As the situation in the Middle East continues to unfold, our expert also discusses the impact on California's oil supply and the potential consequences for the state's residents. From the Sable Offshore pipeline to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, we're exploring the complex web of factors that are driving the oil market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Data from the Department of Energy shows the reserve stood at 357.1 million barrels as of Friday.

We cover 10 big stories on the Energy News Beat Stand Up - The deal has no signatures, and we are running low on oil, gas, and diesel inventory levels within weeks. 1. Iran Nuclear Deal & Middle East TensionsThe podcast opens with discussion of a pending Iran peace deal involving a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend a ceasefire and restart negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. Key concerns include whether Iran can be trusted, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and conflicting narratives between Iran and the Trump administration about shipping restrictions.2. Oil Market Dynamics & PricingWTI crude at $89 and Brent at $94.82Analysis of why oil prices dropped despite the unsigned Iran dealDiscussion of inventory levels running critically low, with predictions that prices could spike to $150-160 for Brent and $110 for WTI once inventories hit bottomThe role of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases in mitigating price increases3. Strait of Hormuz Shipping & Tanker TrafficCoverage of commercial shipping through the critical chokepoint, including VLCC (Very Large Crude Carriers) and LNG tankers heading to China and India, with concerns that only 2 tankers passing through versus the normal 20 per day signals serious disruption.4. China's Oil Market Re-entryDiscussion of China drawing down its strategic reserves and the potential shock when China returns to buying oil again—potentially driving prices significantly higher due to the current 9 million barrels per day supply deficit.5. Germany's Energy CrisisGermany's power prices surged over 30% due to high demand and low wind speeds, highlighting the vulnerabilities of renewable energy dependence. The podcast criticizes the unreliability of wind and solar and questions Germany's ability to meet its 80% renewables target by 2030.6. Russia-Kazakhstan Nuclear DealRussia and Kazakhstan signed agreements for Russia to finance and build Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant, with Russia providing 85% of project financing—presented as a model for energy security and dominance.7. U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve Exports to CaliforniaFor the first time, crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being shipped to California (460,000 barrels to Chevron's Richmond refinery), enabled by President Trump's 60-day Jones Act waiver.8. Aluminum Market Supply CrisisCritical supply shortages in aluminum with inventories at dangerous levels, affecting manufacturing and presenting investment opportunities. Key companies mentioned: Alcoa, Century Aluminum, Kaiser Aluminum, and Rio Tinto.9. Europe's Natural Gas CrisisEurope's gas storage sits 55 points below required levels for winter, with reliance on Qatar and other LNG suppliers facing their own production challenges. This threatens European manufacturing and industrial competitiveness.10. Russia's Oil Exports to IndiaRussia is capitalizing on elevated global oil prices by boosting crude flows to India, with Indian imports jumping 70%.Overarching Themes:Energy security and dominance through exportsThe impact of geopolitical tensions on global energy marketsCriticisms of green energy policies and their economic consequencesThe importance of oil and gas investment and infrastructurePolitical messaging about energy policy differences between statesAll stories can be found on https://energynewsbeat.co/1.Iran Peace Deal Pending President Trump Approval – And it was not approved by the IRGC2.Who is Telling The Truth on Control for the Strait of Hormuz?3.Two VLCC Tankers and Two LNG Tankers Pass Through the Strait of Hormuz en Route to China and India4.The Next Energy Shock Could Be China's Return to the Oil and Gas Market5.Germany's Power Prices Soar Over 30% on High Demand and Low Wind Speeds6.Russia and Kazakhstan Sign Nuclear Power and Currency Swap Deals as Putin Visits Astana7.Oil from US Emergency Reserves Heads to California for the First Time, Kpler Says8.Aluminum Market Facing Prolonged Supply Outage. What does this mean for consumers and investors?9.Europe's Gas Crisis Just Repriced 8 Of My 12 Positions – The Merchant's News10.Russia Boosting Crude Flows as India Imports Jump 70% Since FebCheck out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/

Buried underground in caverns dug out of salt on the Gulf coast of the US are millions of barrels worth of crude oil. This is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, built up in the late 1970s.Globally, at the end of 2025, global strategic oil stockpiles were estimated at 2.5 billion barrels, with China holding the most.With the Strait of Hormuz now closed for more than two months, global oil supplies are being squeezed. In March, as part of a co-ordinated move by members of the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels of oil to prevent price spikes, the US began releasing 172 million barrels from its strategic reserves.In this episode, we speak to Scott Montgomery, a former petroleum geologist who lectures in international studies at the University of Washington, about why these oil stockpiles were built up in the first place, and how they work.This episode was written and produced by Gemma Ware and Katie Flood with production assistance from Katie Flood. Mixing by Eleanor Brezzi and theme music by Neeta Sarl. Read the full credits for this episode and sign up here for a free daily newsletter from The Conversation.If you like the show, please consider donating to The Conversation, an independent, not-for-profit news organisation.Why Middle East gas field attacks could send energy prices soaringWhy the Persian Gulf has more oil and gas than anywhere else on EarthWar in the Middle East made the case for renewables – what's happening in each country tells a harder storyThe government's plans to bolster Australia's fuel stores are sensible – but 5 years too lateOver 400 million barrels will be added to the oil market soon – what are strategic reserves and what can they do?Mentioned in this episode:Voices of the South

Despite the historical energy disruption from the Iran conflict, stocks are back to record highs. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats discuss different views and fundamentals driving markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today: oil, oil inventories, and the price at the pump.It's Wednesday, May 6th, at 2pm in London.Martijn, it's great to talk to you. We remain in this very unique market where on the one hand, the energy market is severely disrupted. On the other hand, we're making new all-time highs in the stock market. And part of this debate is a creeping sense that maybe the energy market is just a lot more resilient than many people initially thought.So, let's just jump right into it. As you look at the current state of the world, the state of things, how are you seeing the energy market at the moment?Martijn Rats: There are definitely two views in the market. I would say commodity specialists, oil traders, people that trade oil and gas equities for a living, tend to focus on the size of the supply shock. And it is neither hyperbole nor disputed that the size of the supply shock is the largest in the history of the oil market. We have the statistical data to back that up. That is not a controversial statement.But at the same time, the other view in the market, generally held by your generalist investors who invest across many markets. They tend to focus on the likelihood or possibility that this supply shock might also be uniquely short. It was there all of a sudden, from one day to the next, the strait was closed. It felt a bit man-made, so to say. It was an outcome of a political decision, and that can also be undecided. And so, this is – the to-ing and fro-ing in the market is; on the one hand, this shock is very, very large. But the other hand it may also be very, very short.Now we went into this supply shock, arguably well-prepared. In the sense that during the course of like late 2024, all of 2025, and the very early part of 2026, we were telling a story of oversupply surplus. And on top of that, given the military buildup was going on in January and February, a lot of countries in the Arabian Gulf – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait – visibly put out a lot of oil at sea.So, in the oversupply of 2025, we put oil in storage in lots of places that we can't always see. But that seems very likely. Oil in the water was very, very high. So, we have been living off these buffers, and that has helped. And then, yeah, at any point in time, there were good enough reasons to assume that on a timeframe of a couple of weeks, this would largely be resolved. We would eat into these buffers, draw some inventory.And it has been hard for the market then to really capitalize the size of the supply shock and say, "Yeah, really oil prices need to spike very, very high." And in that sense, we're left with this significant supply shock, but we haven't taken out the highs that we saw in 2022, for example.Andrew Sheets: So maybe a way to think about this, right, is that if we imagined all of that oil as sitting in a big tank. We've kind of stopped a lot of the flow into the top of the tank as the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed. But oil's still able to drain out of the bottom, kind of, like normal because that tank is being drained. Those inventories have been drawn down. Maybe that's a quite a crude analogy, to forgive the pun.But how long can that last? I mean, if we think about these inventories, if we think about the speed of which they're being drawn down; and I think that's an important point that you mentioned, that these inventories were unusually high going in. But they're obviously not unlimited.Where does that stand? And I guess, you know, what is the limit of that? How long can those inventory draws last?Martijn Rats: Yeah, yeah. To say that this is the billion-dollar question would be understating it, Andrew. It's also a unusually complicated question to answer in the sense that it depends very heavily on the region, on the product that you're looking at. Jet fuel in Europe, NAFTA in Asia, you might see something sooner. But other products in other regions, you know, might take longer.We often don't really know where the operational limitations of inventories are. Globally, we see something like 8 billion barrels of oil in some form of storage. That is an enormous amount. We can't draw that down to zero because a lot of that is there for operational, like working capital type reasons. Just to facilitate the operations of the industry. Is the floor seven? Is the floor six? These things are hard to answer.Andrew Sheets: You've got to have some oil in the pipeline to make the pipeline flow…Martijn Rats: Exactly, exactly. You can't operate a refinery if you don't have at least some storage right next to it. It just doesn't work. So, these things are hard to know. But I would say that we are eating through these buffers very, very re-rapidly now. Oil on water has largely normalized and is no longer elevated.We are seeing very large inventory draws across every data point that we have on refined products. Refined products are universally drawing. On crude, the data is more patchy. But we are seeing large inventory draws now coming through in the United States. I would say – and this is partly having worked with this data for a long time and sort of developing some market feel rather than very analytical spreadsheets, so to say. But I would say that if the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume on the sort of next four to six weeks, we will get very, very tight by June, early summer.And, well, look, I mean, from there, it's simply… You know, if you then were to forecast. You know, project forward from there on. It would be getting tight by August, September. But of course, that's done under the assumption that the flow remains impaired over that period, which I would say most market participants would not assume at the moment.Andrew Sheets: And another point that comes up sometimes, at least in my conversations, is, ‘Oh, but, you know, maybe Venezuelan oil is going to be coming online.' There's more investment. The U.S. seems very focused on increasing oil output in Venezuela. You know, can that match in any sense the scale of what we've had disrupted here?Martijn Rats: No, that is a complicated issue in the sense that, you know, growing oil production takes time. It takes capital, it takes equipment, it takes a lot of people. Venezuela at the moment, produces a bit more than a million barrels a day. I'd have to say, like, relative to the size of Venezuela's production, the last two monthly data points have actually come in better than expected. But you're talking about 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day, that sort of thing. Relative to a supply shock that is 13-14 million barrels a day.The fastest ever single amount of production growth of any country in any year was 2018. U.S. shale with natural gas liquids included grew 2 million barrels a day in a single year. But yeah, even that…Andrew Sheets: So, 2 million barrels relative to 14 million barrels lost is…Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly.Andrew Sheets A drop in the bucket. Martijn Rats: And that had a huge run-up of several years of putting the infrastructure in place to do that. I mean, it…. You don't turn it on a dime either. So no, that remains difficult.Andrew Sheets: So, you know, maybe a dynamic to close with is actually another way that I think people care about the oil price, you know, besides their portfolio – which is they drive.And, you know, you had a great stat in your report that one out of every 11 barrels of oil that's produced ends up in an American car. And the U.S. is a big producer. Its inventories have been drawing down. There are clear signs that the U.S. is exporting a lot of energy, and as a result, gas prices are also going up in the U.S.So, you know, what… If you could just talk a little bit about the move in gasoline and maybe, you know, I think this could be a good segue into this idea of distillates into, kind of, parts of refined product. And how those prices can deviate or not from the barrel of oil we often talk about. And then even just more generally, kind of what is the price at the pump that people might need to think about as you head into the summer – assuming, you know, this conflict is still somewhat uncertain.Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, the United States is very interesting at the moment. In the sense that the regular discourse about the United States is that the United States is energy independent because it is a net oil producer. And at the most aggregate level, that is correct. But that doesn't mean that the United States is not connected to the rest of the world from an oil market perspective. I would say actually it's the opposite.The U.S. oil market is deeply connected to the rest of the world. It is a net exporter because there are very large imports, and there are very large exports, and it just happens so that the exports are a little bit bigger than the imports. So, it's a net exporter.But flows in both directions exist for every product – for crude, for diesel, for gasoline. So, the U.S. should be the last place to have physical disruptions because the supply is close to home. But in the end, it's so connected; that in the end, there's only one global oil price – and we all pay it, including in the United States.Now, because of the deficits at the moment, in Asia, to [an] extent in Europe, there is a very large pool on oil from the United States, and we're seeing that across the board. Crude oil exports were 4 million barrels a day, at the start of the year. They're now running sort of 5.5, even 6 million barrels a day. So, there's a lot of crude being pulled out of the United States. That is partly also the SBR release, the release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the export's very, very large.Another product where that is also happening is in gasoline. Now, the gasoline market in the United States has a degree of complexity to it in the sense that the U.S. is a big importer of gasoline in the East Coast and the West Coast, but then a big exporter from the Gulf Coast.Andrew Sheets: Hunh! Okay. Yeah.Martijn Rats: Net-net, it's an exporter, but in the East Coast and the West Coast, big, big importer. Now, in Europe, for example, we are normally long gasoline, short diesel. We export our surplus to the U.S. East Coast. But, at the moment, it's tight in Europe, so we're not exporting that much gasoline. So, imports in the United States have dropped a lot.At the same time, Asian customers, Brazilian customers, Mexican customers [are] pulling a lot of gasoline out of the Gulf Coast. And as a result, the net exports are unusually high for this time of the year. On top of that, the Strait of Hormuz issue has tightened the diesel market so much relative to the gasoline market that it is favorable for refineries to maximize their diesel output over their gasoline output.Andrew Sheets: Hmm. And these are decisions you can make in terms of how you crack that barrel in a refinery and split it up.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Within a relatively narrow window, but you can make tweaks that are significant. Now, normally, we're going into this summer driving season, refineries switch from what we call max diesel to max gasoline. At the moment, they are not doing that.Andrew Sheets: Mm.Martijn Rats: So, you have low gasoline production, and you have large net exports of gasoline. Over the last 11 weeks already, we have seen a very significant, very significant decline in gasoline inventories in the United States. And prices have risen at the pump. The nation's average is now $4.50 per barrel, as of reports this morning.The summer driving season has yet to start. That can become $4.70, $4.80. That can become $5. Above $5 is historically a point where people get, yeah, worried about demand destruction. And it has a real impact.Andrew Sheets: Well, Martijn, I think this remains such an important and interesting story. And even if, you know, it can seem sometimes like the market has moved on to other things, clearly there are a lot of other factors driving the equity market. It remains pretty historic, pretty significant, and pretty complicated. Also, something that I think, you know, affects the day-to-day spending and lives of a lot of people out there.So, Martijn, again, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Here's what you'll learn: Why crude markets may be too complacent: Which forward prices may not be reflecting tightening fundamentals What inventory data is signaling: The counter-seasonal draws and record exports reducing supply What's happening with reserves: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is trending toward historically low levels What's driving volatility: Continued geopolitical happenings and flows through the Strait of Hormuz What's supporting demand: How AI and electrification are accelerating power needs How it all effects investors: The improving fundamentals that may be supporting energy equities Watch it now to help keep you and your clients on top of current events. Fan of the show? Make sure to like, subscribe and share the episode. Then tune in next week for more timely energy QuickTakes and market insights.

Preview for Later: Guest: Lance Gatling Summary: Lance Gatling discusses Japan's response to the Hormuz crisis, highlighting its reliance on imported energy and the strategic petroleum reserve. He explores how Japan diversified energy sources after previous conflicts and nuclear accidents.1920 TOKYO

The part that doesn't get said out loud often enough is this: you can be “aligned” in a war and still be on a collision course. We dig into why U.S. goals in Iran and Israel's goals in Iran don't just differ, they actively clash and how that clash shows up in assassinations that erase diplomatic options and strikes that look designed to cripple Iran's long-term ability to function as a state. We also zoom out to the stories getting buried while everyone watches missiles and maps. Using recent UN reporting and on-the-ground dynamics, we talk about accelerated West Bank settlement expansion, displacement, settler violence, and what happens to Gaza when aid is cut and the world's attention drifts. The bigger takeaway is uncomfortable: regional escalation can create cover for permanent facts on the ground in Palestine, even as leaders insist their focus is elsewhere. Then we bring it home to the U.S. economy and politics: the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil volatility, Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and the growing risk that oil trade shifts away from the dollar toward the yuan. We also walk through polling that shows Americans turning against the war and why even pro-Trump respondents say they want a fast exit. Finally, we react to Tulsi Gabbard's Senate Intelligence Committee testimony, the threat framing that lumps Iran with nuclear powers, and the pointed exchange over whether Iran posed an “imminent” nuclear threat. If you want clearer thinking on U.S. foreign policy, the Israel Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, and the real incentives pushing escalation, subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

As the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed due to the war with Iran, Western nations have only limited tools to try to keep the price of oil in check. One strategy is to release stored oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss how effective this tool might be.

Dave from Chicago called Mark to inquire whether the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been replenished, given the significant drawdowns associated with ongoing oil price volatility. Vincent from Brooklyn, NY, called Mark to discuss the continued use of cash by some consumers today. He also commented on what he described as a great move by the Trump administration in securing funding for the TSA.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dave from Chicago called Mark to inquire whether the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been replenished, given the significant drawdowns associated with ongoing oil price volatility. Vincent from Brooklyn, NY, called Mark to discuss the continued use of cash by some consumers today. He also commented on what he described as a great move by the Trump administration in securing funding for the TSA.

In mid-March 2026, the Trump administration announced the largest single-country release of emergency oil reserves in history — 172 million barrels — as part of a coordinated 400-million-barrel release by 32 nations in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In this episode, we dig into what the Strategic Petroleum Reserve actually is, how it was created, and what the historical record tells us about whether tapping it actually brings down oil prices. We also examine why the reserve is now headed toward levels not seen since the early 1980s, what the "exchange" structure of the current release means for replenishment, and why mineral owners shouldn't panic — but should pay attention. As always, links to the resources mentioned in this episode can be found in the show notes at mineralrightspodcast.com.

Our Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore breaks down what's being discussed by policymakers around the world to try to cap the oil price spike. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Today, I'll be talking about the ongoing conflict in Iran and the policy options to offset a rise in oil prices. It's Wednesday, March 25th at 8pm in Tokyo. The U.S.-Iran conflict is stretching into its fourth week, and markets are still trying to distill headlines for news of an off-ramp or further escalation. Even here in Tokyo, the global supply crunch is top of mind. But we're also watching for second order effects among a number of key supply chains, ranging from food to semiconductors. As you've been hearing on the show, the Middle East is a critical supplier of aluminum, petrochemicals, and fertilizers—all industries that are energy intensive and deeply embedded in global supply chains. There's also sulphur, which is needed to produce copper and cobalt, largely used for chip materials and components. And helium, which is a critical material for semiconductor manufacturing. So with all this supply chain disruption on the line, what are policymakers' options to mitigate that loss? Let's start by putting some numbers around the disruption. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20 percent of global oil supply, and about a third of seaborne oil. Our strategists highlight three potential offsets. First, alternative pipelines. Saudi Arabia maintains an East-West pipeline and the UAE similarly has a smaller scale Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline. Those together can allow for some crude to bypass Hormuz. Second, the U.S. has publicly discussed potential naval escorts. We've written about the logistical difficulties with this plan, in addition to significant execution risks. Third, the IEA has coordinated a strategic stock release, which could translate to a sustained release of around 2 million barrels a day, depending on the duration of the conflict. There are also geographic considerations though that can add a lag to those strategic releases. On net, our oil strategists think these policy levers can mitigate about 9 million barrels per day from the lost 20, meaning that the global economy will still be short about 11 million barrels per day; more than three times the supply shock the market feared from the Russia-Ukraine conflict back in 2022. So, given those limitations, we're starting to see countries around the world – particularly in Asia – begin to implement rationing measures to conserve energy. The Philippines, for example, has implemented a four-day workweek for government workers and mandated agencies to cut fuel and electricity use. Myanmar has imposed driving limits, and Sri Lanka has introduced gasoline rationing. But what about in the U.S.? We've seen domestic gasoline prices climb due to this conflict, and the national average is now close to $4, almost a dollar up from where we were about a month ago. The President has announced a number of policy efforts – including a Jones Act waiver, which temporarily allows foreign vessels to transport fuel between U.S. ports, and a temporary pause on some Russian and Iranian oil sanctions. President Trump has also directed a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but similarly to the IEA stockpile, the flow rate is going to be the key limit. The authorization was for 172 million barrels over a 120 period, which translates to just about 1.4 million barrels per day on average. So what should we be watching? Tanker transits, signs of upstream shut-ins as storage fills, refinery run-cuts, and—most crucially—whether policy announcements on insurance and escorted convoys can actually translate into reality. These are all going to be critical elements going forward. For now, our oil strategists have raised their near-term Brent forecast to $110 per barrel, which underscores our U.S. economists' outlook for weaker growth and stickier inflation than previously expected. And for now, policy tools seem to be unable to meaningfully offset that disruption. Thanks for listening. As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

With the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed, what does that mean for the regions biggest customer - Asia? Tom Reed, VP of Crude and Products at Argus Media joins us to provide a detailed examination on the impact of Israel and the US's joint attack on Iran on crude and product flows from the region. What were the flows prior to the attack? What has it meant for traders, contracts and customers? Is China tapping its Strategic Petroleum Reserve? And will Asian countries start to ban the export of fuels?

Meet my friends, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton! If you love Verdict, the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show might also be in your audio wheelhouse. Politics, news analysis, and some pop culture and comedy thrown in too. Here’s a sample episode recapping four takeaways. Give the guys a listen and then follow and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Go Thank an Oil Man Clay and Buck open by discussing breaking developments in Iran, including the condition of Mojtaba Khamenei—nicknamed “Little Mo”—who is reportedly in a coma and severely injured following U.S. airstrikes. The hosts analyze how the Iranian leadership is under unprecedented pressure as air campaigns continue to dismantle military assets and target key regime figures. They also address escalating attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting volatility in global oil prices, and how President Trump is responding with aggressive measures, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and coordinating releases of hundreds of millions of barrels internationally to stabilize markets. The conversation highlights the dramatic price swings of crude oil and examines how Iran is trying to weaponize oil shipping routes to trigger economic turmoil. The hosts then explore how American media outlets are selectively covering the surge in gas prices. Clay criticizes networks like CNN and MSNBC for ignoring declining fuel costs for more than a year but immediately amplifying short‑term price increases during the conflict. This flows into a broader media discussion about the differences between advertising‑driven outlets and subscription‑driven news models, with Clay noting that subscriber‑funded outlets—such as the New York Times—now cater to ideological expectations instead of broad audiences. Buck argues that Fox News at least acknowledges its editorial perspective, whereas CNN still pretends to be nonpartisan despite consistent ideological framing. Uncle Bill: "We'll Do It Live!" Clay and Buck welcome media icon Bill O’Reilly, who joins them to discuss his new long‑form interview program We’ll Do It Live! O’Reilly recounts the origins of the viral “We’ll do it live!” clip from his Inside Edition days and how it resurfaced years later as internet culture took off. After the lighthearted banter, the conversation shifts dramatically toward the unfolding Iran conflict. O’Reilly details the stakes of President Trump’s military campaign, emphasizing that U.S. strikes—coordinated with Israeli intelligence—have dismantled much of Iran’s offensive capability. He explains that the killing of top Iranian leadership and the crippling of Iran’s military infrastructure mark one of the most consequential U.S. operations in decades. But O’Reilly warns that global economic consequences, especially oil price volatility, remain the biggest wildcard, and that Trump’s political future hinges significantly on the success or failure of the campaign. The hosts ask O’Reilly what “victory” in Iran should look like, prompting him to outline a diplomatic off‑ramp: forcing Iran to abandon nuclear ambitions, curtail ballistic missile development, weaken the Revolutionary Guard, and end support for terrorism. He acknowledges that Iran often violates agreements but argues that overwhelming military pressure could eventually push the regime toward negotiation. O’Reilly also discusses the Save America Act and the Senate’s political obstacles, noting that although the bill won’t reach the 60 votes needed to advance, Democrats risk political backlash because voter‑ID requirements enjoy overwhelming national support. MO Sen. Eric Schmitt Senator Eric Schmitt of Missouri joined the program to discuss the Save America Act and the Senate’s procedural fight over election integrity, voter ID requirements, mail in balloting limits, and protections for women’s sports. Schmitt explains how a talking filibuster could force Democrats to publicly defend their opposition and outlines the legislative mechanics needed to bring the bill to the Senate floor. He then addresses the Democrats’ refusal to fund the Department of Homeland Security amid a surge in terror threats, arguing that their resistance to immigration enforcement and ICE operations has resulted in long TSA wait times, staffing shortages, and national security vulnerabilities just as Americans enter peak spring travel season. TX Sen. John Cornyn Senator John Cornyn of Texas discusses his May runoff against Ken Paxton and the potential impact of a Donald Trump endorsement in the race. Cornyn defends his record as a Trump aligned conservative, noting that he has voted with Trump more than 99 percent of the time and has played major roles in passing tax cuts, confirming Supreme Court justices, and securing federal reimbursement for Texas border security operations. He explains his evolving stance on the filibuster, arguing that the Save America Act is critical enough to justify a talking filibuster exception due to Democrats’ pattern of blocking legislation tied to national security and voter integrity. Cornyn also contrasts his electability with Paxton’s, asserting that he is the stronger candidate to defeat the Democrats’ far left challenger and to protect down ballot Republican seats in Texas. Make sure you never miss a second of the show by subscribing to the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton show podcast wherever you get your podcasts! ihr.fm/3InlkL8 For the latest updates from Clay and Buck: https://www.clayandbuck.com/ Connect with Clay Travis and Buck Sexton on Social Media: X - https://x.com/clayandbuck FB - https://www.facebook.com/ClayandBuck/ IG - https://www.instagram.com/clayandbuck/ YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ClayandBuck TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@clayandbuckYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil prices are surging as the conflict in Iran intensifies. To ease the pain at the pump, President Trump is tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Former Senior Economic Adviser Steve Moore joins The FOX Business Network's Gerri Willis to break down the administration's energy strategy and why he thinks we can see $2 gas in near future. Plus, the new GDP data showing a cooling U.S. economy.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Atlassian announced that it is letting about 10% of its workforce go today. Management said it was because AI is making the company more efficient, but we're wondering if there is more to it than that. Plus, some napkin math on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release and Dollar General's most recent earnings Tyler Crowe, Matt Frankel, and Jon Quast discuss: - Altassian's Layoffs - The challenges facing SaaS companies in an age of efficiency - Assessing the impact of the SPR release and how it changes our investing approach - Dollar General's earnings and its ongoing turnaround project Companies discussed: TEAM, XYZ, DG, FIVE, WMT, TGT Host: Tyler Crowe Guests: Matt Frankel, Jon Quast Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

More than 30 countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves as the war-driven supply shock sends crude above $100 a barrel. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright discusses America's plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the effort to stabilize oil prices, and whether the U.S. Navy could help escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Then, CNBC's Dan Murphy reports on Iran's escalating attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure across the Gulf. And, Defense Department CTO Emil Michael takes aim at Anthropic's AI models over concerns about ideology in military supply chains. Plus, Elon Musk unveils the new Tesla-xAI project “Macrohard,” and CNBC's Eamon Javers reports on the Trump administration's next tariff steps.   Sec. Chris Wright - 15:39 Emil Michael - 33:28   In this episode: Sec. Chris Wright, @SecretaryWright Eamon Javers, @EamonJavers Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait of Hormuz.It's Wednesday, March 11th at 2pm in London.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.Now, there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict. And so, I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context. How big is the global oil market and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz fit within that global picture?Martijn Rats: Yeah, so the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100 million barrels a day. But that splits in two parts. There is a pipeline market and there is a seaborne market. And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at. If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from the Middle East, all of a sudden, it's not available. Sure, if there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into the United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.Andrew Sheets: So, it's the oil on the ships that really matters.Martijn Rats: It's the oil on ships that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed. And that is also the market where prices are formed. The seaborne market is in the order of 60 million barrels a day. So, only a subset of the 100 [million]. Now relative to that 60 million barrel a day, the Strait of Hormuz flows about 20 [million]. So, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.Andrew Sheets: And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is – this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil. So, can you give just some sense of sensitivity? I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions, in terms of barrels of oil, kind of, move markets; get investors' attention?Martijn Rats: Yeah, look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this. Look normally, at relative to the 100 million barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day. That becomes interesting.If that, increases to say 1 million barrel a day, over- or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move. You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts. We can write research; the clients can trade. You have a tradable idea in front of you. When that becomes 2 to 3 million barrels a day, either side, you have major historical market moving events.So, in [20]08-09, oil famously fell from over 100 [million] down to something like 30 [million], on the basis that the oil market was 2-2.5 million barrel day oversupplied for two quarters. In 2022, we all thought – this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was going to lose about 3 million barrel day of supply. And on that basis, just on the basis of the expectation alone, Brent went to $130 per barrel. So, 2-3 [million] either side you have historically large moves. Now we're talking about 20 [million].Andrew Sheets: And I think that's what's so striking. I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too. If this is a market where 2 to 3 million barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 [million] is exceptional. And I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait [of Hormuz] is something we haven't seen before.Martijn Rats: No, which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way. Because the historical track records did not point in that direction, and yet here we are. The historical track record – look, you can look at other major disruptions historically.The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid-1950s that took away about 10 percent of global oil consumption. This is easily double that. So really unusual. If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID. In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home. Nobody driving, nobody flying. Yeah, we lost very briefly 20 million barrels a day of demand. Now we're losing 20 million barrels a day of supply. So, look, the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude. And yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't actually, sort of, forecast them that easily. But that is what is in front of us at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, I think the next kind of logical question is if shipping remains disrupted, and I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you're sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is – a development. But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally to temporarily balance this supply and create some offset?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, like of course when we have a big disruption like this one, of course the market is going to try to solve for this. There are a few blocks that we can work with. I'll run you through them one by one, including some of the numbers. But very quickly you arrive at the conclusion that this is; this puzzle – we can't really solve it.Like in 2022, the market was very stressed. We thought Russia was going to lose 3 million barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model. Russia oil goes to China and India. Oil that they buy, we can get in Europe, we can move stuff around to kind of sort of solve a puzzle.This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve. So, through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 million barrels a day have crude, 5 million barrels a day of refined product, 20 million barrels a day in total. What can we do?Well, the biggest offset, is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu, where it can be evacuated on tankers there. That pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day. We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3 million barrels a day. So, there's probably an incremental 4 [million] that can become available through that. That's the biggest block, that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.After that the numbers do get smaller. The UAE has a pipeline that goes through Fujairah that's also beyond the Strait of Hormuz. We think there is maybe 0.5 million barrel a day of capacity there. Then you're basically, sort of, done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.If there are sanctions relief, maybe on Russian oil, you can find a 0.5 million barrel day there. Here, there and everywhere. 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day. But the numbers get…Andrew Sheets: It's still not… So, if you kind of put all of those, you know, kind of, almost in a best-case scenario relative to the 20 million that's getting disrupted.Martijn Rats: If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release from SPR…Andrew Sheets: That's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Earlier today, we got an announcement, that the IEA is proposing to release 400 million barrels from Strategic Reserve across its member countries. That is a very large number. But – and that is important. But more important is how fast can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite. The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that and we can get it to 2 [million]. But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find like 7 million barrels a day out of a problem that is 20 [million]. You're left with another 13 [million]. The 13 [million] is four times what we thought Russia would lose. So, you're left with this conclusion: Look, this really needs to come to an end.Andrew Sheets: And the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting, this is obviously price. And, you know, you talk about this idea of demand destruction, which I think we could paraphrase as – the price is higher so people use less of it and then you can rebalance the market that way.But give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about, kind of, the price of oil? Where it would need to go to – to potentially rebalance this the other way.Martijn Rats: Yeah, that price is very high. So, what it's a[n] really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.You take 20 years of oil prices. You convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then simply plot the frequency distribution. What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around the midpoint. You get, sort of, two partially overlapping bell curves.There is a slightly larger one, which is, sort of, the normal regime. Lower prices, 60, 70, 80 bucks. There's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution, that's where we are normally. What's interesting is that actually, if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare in inflation adjusted terms.Like a [$] 100-110. In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened. In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare. They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right. [$]130, 140.The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices. If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail? They always prevailed in periods where we asked the same question. What is the demand destruction price? And yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in that regime. These very high prices, like [$]130. And it's… It's not a gradual scale. You sort of at one point shoot through these levels and that's where you then end up.Andrew Sheets: It's quite, quite serious stuff.Martijn Rats: Well, yeah. Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, ‘Oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.' But we don't erode demand in isolation. Like, you know, diesel is trucking. Yeah, jet is flying. NAFTA is petrochemicals.Andrew Sheets: These are real core parts of economic activity.Martijn Rats: It's all GDP.Andrew Sheets: So maybe Martijn, in conclusion, let me give you a slightly different scenario. Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution. Traffic goes back to normal. Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean. You know, kind of how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, if you say, weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time actually.Andrew Sheets: Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.Martijn Rats: If you say days. Let's say next week something happens, the whole thing comes soon to end. Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues. But look, we can work through that.There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain. There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not. So, we will have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and we draw on some inventories here or there, but… And that will keep commodity prices tense, I would imagine. The equity market will probably look through it.We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine of logistical issues to sort out. Look, of course, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed. But yeah, look, that that's equally true. If it's short, we can sort of live with a disruption.Andrew Sheets: It's fair to say that this is a situation where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.Martijn Rats: Oh, totally. Look, the oil industry has built in various, sort of, compensatory measures, I think. You know, inventories along the supply chains. But nothing of the scale that can work with this. I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: My pleasure.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

How is the war with Iran impacting global oil prices—and could the Strait of Hormuz trigger the next energy crisis? In this episode, Lisa sits down with former U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette to break down the extreme volatility in the oil markets, the risks facing global shipping, and how energy traders are trying to price uncertainty during a geopolitical conflict. Brouillette explains why oil prices surged from the mid-$70s to $120 in just hours, how the Trump administration’s proposed $20 billion tanker insurance backstop could stabilize shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and why the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a dangerously low level. He also reflects on how deregulation during the Trump administration helped make the United States a net energy exporter and what that means for energy security today. The conversation also explores the global implications of bringing Venezuelan oil back into the market, China’s reliance on discounted energy, and how geopolitical shifts could reshape the world’s energy supply. Plus, Brouillette discusses the massive power demand coming from AI and data centers, why nuclear energy may be the key to meeting future electricity needs, and how cybersecurity and quantum computing could transform energy infrastructure. Topics covered include: Why oil prices are swinging wildly during the Iran conflict The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz Trump’s tanker insurance plan and global shipping risks The state of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy independence and deregulation under the Trump administration Venezuelan oil and China’s discounted energy supply The massive energy demand from AI and data centers Why nuclear power could be critical for America’s energy future A must-listen for anyone following energy markets, geopolitics, oil prices, and the future of global energy security.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this episode of The Wright Report, Bryan covers a new intelligence warning tied to the war with Iran, including mysterious shortwave radio broadcasts believed to be coded signals that could activate Iranian sleeper agents abroad.    He also breaks down the latest military developments, from the remaining Iranian missiles and drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz to the growing oil crisis as tankers remain stuck and global markets brace for shortages.    Finally, Bryan examines the economic and political fallout, including pressure on President Trump to release U.S. strategic oil reserves, new polling on the war's popularity, and signs the White House may be narrowing its war goals to stopping Iran's nuclear program as a possible off-ramp.    "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32     Keywords: Iran war update, Iranian sleeper agents shortwave radio, Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran missiles TEL launchers, global oil shock 2026, Strategic Petroleum Reserve debate, Trump Iran nuclear strategy, U.S. Iran conflict analysis, Bryan Dean Wright podcast, The Wright Report

G7 finance ministers have said they're ready to take measures to support the global energy supply, after meeting to discuss the economic turmoil caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran. Oil prices eased back below 100 US dollars a barrel, after they indicated this could include the release of strategic reserves. But they're still about 40 percent up since the start of the war, which has halted most exports from the Gulf. Concerns about the impact on the global economy have caused stock markets to fall in America, Europe and Asia.Also in the programme: Reports that members of Iran's women's football team are seeking refuge in Australia - we'll hear from a former Iranian sportsman who fled the country; and how AI is predicting the risk of serious heart disease from breast cancer screenings.(File Photo: A maze of crude oil pipes and valves pictured during a tour by the Department of Energy at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas, US. Credit: Reuters/Richard Carson/File Photo)

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