Podcasts about powell put

In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy's trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today's volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don't miss Andy's unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing!Main Topics Covered:Andy's “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.”The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant's goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks.The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today's market, and why they're farther out of the money than many expect.The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative.The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations.Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization's inflationary pressures.The Federal Reserve's current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they're a poor choice for long-term investors.Andy's contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.

  5 sources Bloomberg reports Apple's executive reshuffle in its AI division, naming Vision Pro chief Mike Rockwell as the new head of Siri, replacing John Giannandrea in that role due to concerns over AI product development. Several financial news outlets, including ZeroHedge, analyze the Federal Reserve's March 2025 FOMC meeting. They discuss the decision to hold interest rates steady while slowing quantitative tightening, and the market's positive initial reaction despite a somewhat weaker economic outlook influenced by trade policy. Powell's press conference, particularly his dismissal of a consumer inflation expectations survey and comments on the impact of tariffs, is a central focus of the financial analysis.

After the expected 75 basis point fed funds rate increase, the bourbros speak about how they profited off of the chaos. Van is holding $PDD puts while Mecci touches on trading psychology. "Wait a minute.. This ain't a hot tub". Watch this episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/49i6DQ6PHdg Tik Tok: http://www.tiktok.com/@bearsbullsandbourbon: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bearsbullsandbourbon/ Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bears-bulls-bourbon/id1607330638 Spotify Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3oRJOpolLwptsquASpQok6 Van's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/javanscontent/ Mecci's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ayodemetri/ Help Support the show: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=8JJBUHFUDRNKE

Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices. Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the world's most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to “slip on a banana skin” as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wang's message to the viewers banking on a “Powell Put” is even more stark: “wake the ____ up.” -- Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/. Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/. -- Today's episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Banana Skins In This Market (13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative (23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse (30:50) Ad (36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control? (41:18) The Dollar and Bonds (50:28) Bretton Woods III (59:55) Inflationary Hikes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jerome Powell surprises no one in FOMC meeting. Tesla is not Microsoft. Hedge fund sharks will smell blood on Cathie Wood. Bullish gold news ignored by traders. Powell confuses economic strength for an economic bubble. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31st INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff

In this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack once again sits down with former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang, more commonly known by his moniker “Fed Guy.” In the interview, the two go deep into the leadership, policy, and future of the Federal Reserve, as well as look at how textbook concepts such as the Fed controlling inflation through the federal funds rate are outdated at best. Joseph takes his years of experience and impressive knowledge of modern financial systems to critique how central banks run the economies of today. Jack and Joseph question if the Fed is on the right path to end inflation and if the current regime even knows how to combat the problems of an economy overheated by fiscal stimulus. Don't miss this important and thought-provoking interview. Joseph Wang's writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wang's Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley's Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks' Twitter: @Blockworks_

The global debt pile now exceeds $300tn - three times GDP - that burdens the world. The problem is that debt ultimately has to be repaid or, more likely, rolled over. The modern financial cycle gyrates with the tempo of debt maturities. A renewed dose of QE, or a ‘Powell Put', seems the inevitable remedy for the next stock market sell-off. Future growth of global liquidity has seemingly become institutionalized by these debt burdens. Unless the spiral is broken by higher interest rates, global liquidity will ultimately be bound higher. Asset allocation has been put on a potentially self-destructive autopilot that ignores sensible investment criteria.

Het begon met de Greenspan-put, toen kwam de Bernanke-put, daarna die van Yellen en nu hebben we de Powell-put. Deze term geeft aan dat centrale banken zouden ingrijpen bij een crisis in de financiële markten. Zoals bijvoorbeeld tijdens de beurscrash van 1987, de crisis rond het hedgefonds LTCM in 1998, de kredietcrisis en recent tijdens de coronadip. Nu is de centrale bank er om de economie te redden en niet de beurskoersen. Er is research gedaan op welk moment die put, een term geleend van de optiemarkt, in werking zou treden. Dat zou ergens bij een koersdaling van 15% zijn. Dat is een leuk gegeven, maar onzinnig om daar een precies getal op te plakken. Ik denk dat centrale banken vooral de economie willen redden. En als er een crisis in de economie is, is er ook vaak een crisis op de beurs. Als je de ene redt, zal je ook de ander redden. In het verleden werkte de Powell-put goed. Alleen wordt het iedere keer iets moeilijker om de getroffen maatregelen te normaliseren. En daarom zitten we nu met deze ultralage rentes. Ik zag van de week een oude advertentie van Rabobank met de spaarrentes uit 1982. De rente van een basisspaarrekening werd toen verlaagd van 8,0% naar 7,5%. De inflatie bedroeg toen 6,3%. Dat is niet veel anders dan nu. Maar nu mag je met een beetje vermogen een half procent op je spaarrekening bijbetalen. Beleggers die te veel op deze putoptie leunen moeten wel in de gaten houden dat de situatie dit keer anders is. Ik weet het, dit zijn de gevaarlijkste woorden uit de geschiedenis. Maar dit keer is het echt anders. De Fed heeft nu twee oorlogen te winnen. Dit keer moeten ze niet alleen de groei stimuleren, maar ook de inflatie beteugelen. Volgende week horen we meer, dan is de Fed-rentevergadering. Als we naar de obligatiemarkten kijken, zien we steeds hogere rentes, vooral bij de kortlopende obligaties. In een paar maanden tijd is de rente op tweejarige obligaties van 0,22% naar nu 0,67% opgelopen. De Fed-futures hebben inmiddels een meer dan 100% kans ingeprijst dat er al in juni 2022 een eerste renteverhoging komt. De aandelen die de meeste last gaan krijgen van de monetaire verkrapping zijn de aandelen die nu het populairst zijn. U kent ze wel: de meme-aandelen en technologieaandelen met mooie verhalen en geen winst of omzet. De Powell-put kan de prullenbak in. Mocht er zich een crisis voordoen, dan staat u er alleen voor. Powell staat niet meer klaar om uw hand vast te houden. Het is maar dat u het weet. Over de column van Corné van Zeijl Corné van Zeijl is analist en strateeg bij vermogensbeheerder Actiam en belegt ook privé. Reageer via corne.vanzeijl@actiam.nl. Deze column kun je ook iedere donderdag lezen in het FD.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/30hLzg9   - Today we look at yesterday's steep sell-off on Wall Street as the market continues to fret the rise in Treasury yields. Linked to that, we ponder whether expectations for imminent Fed action to tamp down on longer yields are overbaked as Fed Chair Powell is set for an appearance later today. A look through FX developments, especially the most pronounced mover in G10 FX, the Swiss franc, and a look at gold, oil and more on the call. On today's call were Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

I dette afsnit ser Hansen & Larsen på urolige tider, stigende renter og debatten omkring grønne aktiebobler i den grønne omstilling. De seneste uger og i særdeleshed dage har flere investorer oplevet urolige aktiemarkeder. Flere af de grønne aktier har haft en prisfastsættelse på flere gange den reelle indtjening – uden udvikling i profitabiliteten. Vestas og Ørsted er nogle af de større selskaber, som er blevet ramt af nedturen med en meget høj prisfastsættelse, der har gjort kursudviklingen sårbar. I en hurtig vending kommer Hansen og Larsen også omkring hydrogenaktien Everfuel, der er blevet halveret siden toppen. Mange nye momentumbaserede investorer på aktiemarkedet kigger lige nu mere på mikro snarere end makro og kan måske ikke helt forstå den aktierotation eller korrektion, der er på vej i øjeblikket med udefrakommende faktorer som rentestigninger. Og så spørger flere investorer, hvorfor det især er de grønne aktier og udvalgte IT-aktier, som hopper og danser? Hansen og Larsen kommer i afsnit 54 omkring hele paletten på 27 minutter inklusiv Powell Put-effekten, historiske korrektioner og fremtidsudsigterne. Indeksering: 00:00 – 14:20 Urolige aktiemarkeder og grønne bobler 14:20 – 18:50 Rentestigninger og deres betydning 18:50 – 27:07 The Powell Put og et kig på tidligere korrektioner/kriser

Les actions américaines se sont appréiées pour un troisième jour consécutif.

US stocks rallied for the third consecutive day.

Call it the “Powell Put” or the “Powell Pivot” or something else, but the Federal Reserve chairman’s recent change in approach to monetary policy is reverberating through the markets. In just a matter of a few months, central bank chief Jerome Powell has evolved from a hawk on interest rates — in favor of pushing them higher — to a seeming dove intent at the very least on waiting to see how conditions evolve before making another move.

The Federal Reserve has the stock market’s back, right? That’s what a lot of investors have come to believe. The so-called “Yellen put” (after former Fed Chair Janet Yellen) has rolled over into the “Powell put” (after current Fed Chair Jerome Powell) in trader parlance that likens central bank policy to options contracts protecting against losses in equities. But what if the Powell put doesn’t do the trick this time, and economic data and corporate earnings continue to deteriorate despite interest rate cuts? What if it isn’t enough to counteract U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war? That’s one of the topics guest Alec Young, managing director for global markets research at FTSE Russell, explores on this week's show. Also joining the podcast is Romaine Bostick, a reporter and anchor on Bloomberg Television, to give his take on the state of play in markets, and what he’s hearing from sources on Wall Street. 

After a long hiatus, fellow transplanted NY'er and now Floridian, Andrew Horowitz joined us. When it comes to markets, Andrew has long believed that following the Fed can reap large rewards. Even though as Andrew has stated, the real economy hasn't really been doing much for over a decade. But stock buybacks, Wall Street alchemy and government interventions have reaped mighty fortunes for some. But perhaps there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Employment numbers have been very strong. But if we're in the best economy in memory, why does the Fed need to even consider cutting rates? Something doesn't compute. 

After a long hiatus, fellow transplanted NY'er and now Floridian, Andrew Horowitz joined us. When it comes to markets, Andrew has long believed that following the Fed can reap large rewards. Even though as Andrew has stated, the real economy hasn't really been doing much for over a decade. But stock buybacks, Wall Street alchemy and government interventions have reaped mighty fortunes for some. But perhaps there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Employment numbers have been very strong. But if we're in the best economy in memory, why does the Fed need to even consider cutting rates? Something doesn't compute. 

In Episode 91 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, about the latest Fed rate decision and his outlook for the global economy. In the overtime to this week’s episode, David provides listeners with a look into his investment strategy and how he is positioning himself and his clients for a global slowdown that he believes may already be underway. David Rosenberg and Demetri recorded this episode only hours after the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting this past Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the fed funds rate unchanged, while simultaneously signaling a strong willingness to begin easing, possibly as soon as next month. It is David Rosenberg’s conviction that the Federal Reserve has over tightened monetary policy during this cycle possibly by as many as one-hundred basis points – four rate hikes - and that Jay Powell and the board of governors at the Fed are worried that they may have precipitated the bursting of another bubble. This time, however, the bubble isn’t in housing or consumer credit. The bubble in 2019 is in the corporate bond market where multinational corporations have feasted on the issuance of trillions of dollars of new debt used to finance mergers, acquisitions, and share buybacks, while simultaneously cutting back on the capital investment needed to grow their businesses and service their debts long-term. The last ten years have been a great time for stocks, fueled by a bonanza of free money and an implicit guarantee by the Fed to support asset prices at all costs. But the question has always lingered, “What will happen as the Fed continues to raise rates, normalize its balance sheet and tighten monetary policy?” Is this a new financial paradigm where fundamentals no longer matter and perpetual liquidity is the name of the game or does the global economy’s increased reliance on debt financing in order to drive earnings and levitate asset prices remain as unsustainable today as it has been in any prior historical period? Is this time truly different? As always, subscribers to our Hidden Forces Patreon page can access the overtime to this week’s episode, which includes a discussion about how David is positioning himself and his clients for the likelihood of a recession and return to bear market territory for stocks and commodities. We discuss the US dollar, precious metals, treasuries, currencies, as well as certain defensive stocks that David believes are likely to outperform the overall market in a downturn. You can learn more at Patreon.com/HiddenForces. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Ok, I had a lot of fun talking with Raghee Horner, the Managing Director of Futures Trading at Simpler Trading. She and I covered a vast array of topics including how spending less time in front of the screen leads to better trading, defensive trades, money supply, futures & forex, the Powell Put and Dow theory. Honestly, this was one of the most enlightening discussions in the macro economic field I’ve had in a while and I’m so thankful for Raghee for coming on the show! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

The Federal Reserve held its Open Market Committee Meeting this week and it looks like the Powell Put is on in full-force. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, Mike Maharrey talks about the Fed's uber-dovish tone and what might be coming down the road. He also touched on the ever-climbing federal budget deficits and offered a quick overview of 2018 gold demand. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/2G2mlur Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

Peter Schiff gets a lot of scoffers. "You've been saying the same thing for years and nothing has happened." It's easy to throw rocks from the peanut gallery. But Peter and others like him base the things they say on solid economic principles. The problem is, nobody has a crystal ball. We might be able to say what will happen, but it's impossible to say precisely when. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, Mike Maharrey talks about the underlying economics behind what's going on in the economy and the markets. He also talks about how the Powell Put impacted the markets this week and how the Fed might proceed in the future. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/2QTa4tb Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

The market seems to like the Powell pudding, but will it stick? Matt & Don examine the current state of the economy from several angles in this episode of Bull|Bear Radio. Plus, positive returns in 2018? If you thought "no way" you need to listen to this episode.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Everything up on the Week Except Treasury Bonds and the Dollar The stock market ended a positive week on a little bit of a down note; all of the major averages had small losses today - well off the lows of the day.  The market tried a couple of times to sell off but the dips were bought on each occasion and we ended up closing near the highs of the day, even though we were down on the day. Pretty much everything was up on the week except treasury bonds and the dollar. The dollar fell, long-term interest rates rose.  Gold was up.  Oil was the big winner, even though it was down close to a dollar a barrel today, we closed right around $52; up better than 8% on the week. All Fed - No Change in Fundamentals But what has been driving the rally has all been the Fed. There's nothing fundamental that has changed about the U.S. economy or about the U.S. stock market other than the "Powell Put" is now back in play.  In fact, it's not just Powell putting that out there, he has been joined by a chorus of central bankers who came out today, yesterday, all throughout the week - they're all now reading from the same dovish playbook.  They've got their marching orders and they are talking up the market.  Now talking how the Fed has to listen to the market, be careful and take its cues from the market. It used to be that the market didn't matter.  The Fed was going to do its thing and the markets are going to do what they are going to do. And it didn't take long for that to change. The Fed Can Not Allow the House of Cards to Fall Of course, I've been saying that all along; that the Fed was not going to allow this house of cards that they deliberately inflated to just fall apart. Now they had to pretend that they didn't care about the markets but, of course the whole time, they were hoping the markets actually didn't go down because they didn't want to have to reverse policy.  They wanted to talk tough even though they didn't have a stick.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Everything up on the Week Except Treasury Bonds and the Dollar The stock market ended a positive week on a little bit of a down note; all of the major averages had small losses today - well off the lows of the day.  The market tried a couple of times to sell off but the dips were bought on each occasion and we ended up closing near the highs of the day, even though we were down on the day. Pretty much everything was up on the week except treasury bonds and the dollar. The dollar fell, long-term interest rates rose.  Gold was up.  Oil was the big winner, even though it was down close to a dollar a barrel today, we closed right around $52; up better than 8% on the week. All Fed - No Change in Fundamentals But what has been driving the rally has all been the Fed. There's nothing fundamental that has changed about the U.S. economy or about the U.S. stock market other than the "Powell Put" is now back in play.  In fact, it's not just Powell putting that out there, he has been joined by a chorus of central bankers who came out today, yesterday, all throughout the week - they're all now reading from the same dovish playbook.  They've got their marching orders and they are talking up the market.  Now talking how the Fed has to listen to the market, be careful and take its cues from the market. It used to be that the market didn't matter.  The Fed was going to do its thing and the markets are going to do what they are going to do. And it didn't take long for that to change. The Fed Can Not Allow the House of Cards to Fall Of course, I've been saying that all along; that the Fed was not going to allow this house of cards that they deliberately inflated to just fall apart. Now they had to pretend that they didn't care about the markets but, of course the whole time, they were hoping the markets actually didn't go down because they didn't want to have to reverse policy.  They wanted to talk tough even though they didn't have a stick.

The markets appear to be demanding a positive return on central bank policy, and the Fed appears ready and willing to provide after Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve has communicated patience before more hikes and other central banks look to be following suit. The move has led to a FOMO move in many risky assets including stocks, commodities, and risky or high yield debt that was hit hard into 2018's close. Interested to find out more about news and analysis of the market, Click here to visit our main website! Follow Tyler article via his DailyFX Bio: https://www.dailyfx.com/authors/bio/Tyler_Yell Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ The Fed's Game of Chicken The big news was yesterday, when Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, basically flinched. I've been talking about the game of chicken that the Federal Reserve has been playing with the markets. The way the game of chicken goes, is the markets keep moving lower and the Fed keeps talking about how great the economy is and how many rate hikes are coming in the future. Somebody has to flinch - somebody has to blink. It's like you have these two automobiles driving toward each other, and there's going to be a major crash unless somebody turns the wheel.It seems like it was Jerome Powell who turned the wheel first, and, in fact, was chicken. The Fed Is Worried About All Asset Prices, Not Just the Stock Market As much as the Fed wants to pretend they don't care about the stock market - they absolutely care about the stock market. They are tremendously worried about a weakening stock market.  Remember the goal of quantitative easing was to lift the stock market - to create a wealth effect and it was that stock market-created wealth that was going to drive consumption and the economy. And it wasn't just the stock market; it was also the real estate market.  So the Fed is worried about all asset prices, not just the stock market.  Clearly the real estate market is in even more trouble than the stock market, but both of these markets were headed lower, and I think that is what really prompted the Fed to blink - to swerve in this game of chicken. Powell Suddenly Dials Back the Narrative Now, of course you also had President Trump pressuring the Fed, you had Mnuchin putting some pressure on the Fed, which I think should also be a worrying factor.  We don't really know. There was a lot of speculation about what was behind the Fed's change of heart - change in policy.  After all, up until yesterday, even when you had the Vice Chair speak, the tone was very hawkish: "Yep, we've got lots of rate hikes coming." And now all of a sudden, Powell dials it all back.  Basically, what Powell said that convinced people that maybe there will not be as many rate hikes in the future, is, "We're just below neutral. We're almost there, maybe one more rate hike ought to do it." Is 2.25% to 2.5% Neutral? First of all, we're still at 2%, so that would imply neutral is 2.25% or 2.5%. That really shows you how low the neutrality bar has been lowered given the enormity of the debt bubble that have.  Once upon a time, and not too long ago, a 2.5% Fed Funds rate would have been considered highly stimulative.  

The Powell Put is on! The Federal Reserve chair shocked markets this week with comments indicating the central bank might be close to ending its tightening cycle. It was a sudden and dramatic shift from talking points coming out of the Fed just weeks ago. So, what gives? What did Powell mean? Was he sending a signal or are we reading too much into his comments? On this week's Friday Gold Wrap, Mike Maharrey breaks down Powell's comments and their impact on the markets. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/2BHjG5U Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

St. Valentine's Day Rout I wouldn't really call what happened in the bond market and the U.S. dollar market as a St. Valentine's Day massacre, maybe it was a slaughter; even slaughter was too harsh a word.  It was a rout.  But this is nothing compared to what is going to come. The daughter is going to get slaughtered a lot more and the bond market is going to get slaughtered a lot more in the days ahead.  Maybe not exactly tomorrow, but there will be days ahead that will be much worse than today. This is the tip of a huge iceberg. Doing the Impossible Before I get into the tail of the tape today, and all the horrific economic numbers that came out today, I want to take a step back and talk about President Trump's budget, which was released on Monday.  Basically, the Republicans succeeded in doing something that you would have thought was impossible. They are making the Democrats look like the fiscally responsible party. A Farce First of all, there are some cuts in this budget that are never going to happen.  There are a lot of assumptions that are saving money, like they assume a total repeal and replace of ObamaCare, which isn't going to happen.  In fact, if it didn't happen when Republicans controlled Congress, how is it going to happen when the Democrats control Congress in 2019?  So this is all farcical. Assumptions... But one of the biggest farces of the entire budget is the underlying economic assumptions.  They're assuming that the very low unemployment rate gets even lower. But, the most farcical of all, is that they assume that the economy grows uninterrupted at an average of 3% for the next 10 years! This so-called expansion is already 9 years old. That makes it the second or third longest expansion in history, and if it continues this year, I think it will be the largest expansion in history. If it continued for another 10 years it would be almost twice as long as the next largest economic expansion in history.  What are the odds that that is going to happen?  But even if that happens, even if we get 10 years of 3% economic growth (we probably won't even get 1) but let's assume we get 10, even with that, the budget does not balance. Not Even Pretending the Budget will Balance This is the first time the Republicans are presenting a budget that, even in 10 years, does not balance.  Now, think about this: When they were presenting budgets that had a pretense of balancing in 10 years, and they were way off the mark, can you imagine how much further off they will be now when they are not even pretending the budget is going to balance? Trillion Dollar Deficits and no QE In the first couple of years they are forecasting trillion dollar deficits.  As I said on the podcast before, the last time we had trillion dollar deficits, the Fed was doing a trillion dollars a year in QE. Right now, the Fed is still posturing that it is not going to do any QE. In fact, it is posturing that it is going to do QT - it is going to shrink its balance sheet. Big Political Problem for the Republicans But here is going to be the big political problem:  Since the Democrats are now the fiscally responsible party, they will be able to hang these deficits around the necks of the Republican candidates like an Albatross.  I know a lot of people are thinking, "Wait a minute, Peter! Obama doubled the deficit & the national debt - there are all kinds of deficits under Obama, so how can the Democrats say that the Republicans are the big spenders and they are the fiscal Conservatives? Inevitable Keynesian Logic It is very easy.  It is basic Keynes.  They are going to say is when Obama ran deficits, they were necessary to get us out of the recession that Bush caused by cutting taxes on the rich, and the corporations.  So they were a necessary economic stimulus to get out of the ditch that Bush drove us into.  After all, Clinton, a Democrat, balanced the budget, and it was a great economy, he handed it over to Bush,