Hidden Forces

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Demetri Kofinas interviews some of the most brilliant minds in science, technology, finance, politics, and culture as he uncovers the underlying forces driving the most powerful changes we see in the world.

Demetri Kofinas


    • Aug 15, 2022 LATEST EPISODE
    • weekdays NEW EPISODES
    • 58m AVG DURATION
    • 288 EPISODES

    Listeners of Hidden Forces that love the show mention: hidden forces, dimitri, listening to hidden, demitri, world changing, stimulating podcast, grant williams, hf, tsla, global economy, like hidden, depth conversation, overtime segments, geopolitics, rohan, geopolitical, business models, paid subscription, futurism, disruption.



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    Latest episodes from Hidden Forces

    The Price of Time in a World Without Interest | Edward Chancellor

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2022 53:33

    In Episode 266 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with financial historian, journalist, and author Edward Chancellor. For the last twenty years, Chancellor has been arguably known best for his book, “Devil Take the Hindmost,” which is a fantastic history of the last 400 years of financial speculation. Yet, that streak may be soon coming to an end with the publication tomorrow of his latest book, “The Price of Time,” an absolutely brilliant philosophical exploration of interest and its essential role in valuing and directing the allocation of capital, labor, and resources in the economy over time. Interest rates have sometimes been described on this podcast and elsewhere as the “price of money.” While this definition is useful, it fails to capture the temporal dimension of interest rates and the role that they play in expanding the continuum of economic activity, cooperation, investment, and consumption beyond the immediate grasp of the present moment. The ability to accumulate capital in the form of money enables us to operate outside of entropy's constraints—we aren't limited in other words by the decomposition or decay of a sack of barley, a barrel of oil, or a concrete building. But in order to value that capital through both space and time, we need something more. And that something is interest: the price you pay to borrow money or the cost you charge to lend it over time. Over the last two decades the price of time has plummeted to levels never before seen in human history and with it have arrived a multiplicity of asset price bubbles, a reduction in productivity growth, rising wealth and income inequality, a discouragement of savings, a growth in supply chains, and an excessive amount of risk-taking encouraged by the acrobatics of yield-starved investors in search of decent return. In this excellent and timely conversation, you are going to learn about the history of interest and its historical role in promoting human cooperation, economic activity, and advancement. You are also going to learn about how interest is priced, where it comes from, and the difference between the so-called “natural rate” of interest and what central banks have claimed as their policy lever to control the scale, scope, and distribution of capital in society. In the second hour of our conversation which is available to premium subscribers only, Edward Chancellor and Demetri Kofinas apply the framework that they develop in the first part of the episode to help you understand where we find ourselves today, whether or not central banks and governments can indeed use their policy tools to fix the very problems that those tools have to help create, what some of those solutions and the path forward could look like, and what all of this means for you and your portfolio. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/09/2022

    Why Global Liquidity Matters Now More Than Ever | Michael Howell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 54:09

    In Episode 265 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Howell. Michael is the CEO of CrossBorder Capital, a London-based, independent research and investment company that provides asset allocation and capital markets advice to institutional investors. This conversation is a natural follow-up to our recent episodes with Lev Menand on the shadow banking system and Eric Basmajian on economic cycles. Specifically, the credit cycle and its leading impact on the economy and asset prices. But this conversation with Michael also pulls directly from other episodes as well with guests like Michael Pettis on global trade and finance, Claudio Borio on financial instability, Brent Johnson on the Revenge of the Dollar, James Aitken on Digital Currency and the Pivot to Asia, Russel Napier on the New Economic Order and the Asian Financial Crisis, and of course, one of my absolute favorites, a conversation with Kevin Coldiron, Tim Lee, and Jamie Lee on the role of the US Dollar as an international funding currency and as the primary driver of recurring systemic crises in the international financial system. Global liquidity is a term that every single person working in finance and in financial media has not only heard of but has probably used at one point or another. And yet, if you were to ask most people what this term means or what it refers to they would be hard pressed to give you a clear or uniform answer. This is because the drivers of global liquidity, namely the financial and exchange rate relationships within and between countries and the determinants of cross-border flows of money, securities, goods and services, are constantly changing. In the process, they have become, in the words of Michael Howell, “the new weapons in the escalating Capital Wars between the U.S., Europe, and China,” the last of which has a vested interest in not only the long-term stability of the international financial system but perhaps even the eventual aim of displacing the Dollar in favor of the Yuan as the fulcrum around which international trade and commerce is eventually invoiced and credited The goal of today's conversation is not only to help you gain a deeper appreciation for what global liquidity is and the geopolitical and economic forces driving it but to also help you understand how it impacts you and your portfolio directly through the outsized role that it has on shaping economic outcomes and asset prices. This comes at a time when this very liquidity is receding faster than at any point since the Great Financial Crisis and by some measures, even quicker. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation, along with the additional material provided by Michael Howell by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/02/2022

    How to Prepare for the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis | Dmitri Alperovitch, Elbridge Colby, & Jamil N. Jaffer

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2022 82:15

    In Episode 264 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas publishes the contents of a call that he hosted on Twitter Spaces this past Tuesday evening only hours after Nancy Pelosi, the US Speaker of the House of Representatives arrived in Taiwan. The subject of the call concerns both the short and long-term consequences of Pelosi's trip and whether or not the US is ready to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese naval blockade or invasion of the island by the People's Liberation Army. Speakers Dmitri Alperovitch, Elbridge Colby, and Jamil N. Jaffer discuss how the US can prepare for this eventuality, the urgency of the task at hand, and the possibility and consequences of the US losing a war with China over Taiwan in the next few years. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/02/2022

    A Recession, More Inflation, or Both? | Eric Basmajian

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2022 57:28

    In Episode 263 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eric Basmajian. Eric is an economic cycle analyst and the Founder of EPB Macro Research, an economics-based research firm focusing on inflection points in economic growth and the impact on asset prices. His research has been featured across major financial media outlets and he's been kind enough to provide a sample of his latest cyclical trends monthly update report for premium subscribers to our super nerd tier that you can get through this week's episode page on our website. This conversation is the latest in a series of episodes on markets and investing, with an especially strong focus this time on the macro economy, and in particular, the secular and cyclical trends in the rate of growth and inflation. Secular forces are things like demographics, debt-to-GDP levels, trends in globalization, and the regular and predictable doubling in computing power commonly referred to as Moore's Law—long-term trends in other words that remain in place through multiple economic cycles. Cyclical trends on the other hand are the 6-18 month fluctuations in growth determined by things like income, production, consumption, and employment. We can anticipate changes in the direction and magnitude of these trends by relying on a variety of what are known as leading as well as coincident economic indicators, things you've probably heard of before like building permits, new manufacturing orders, non-farm payrolls, personal consumption, industrial production, etc. Understanding where you are in an economic cycle and what the long-term, secular forces are that are pulling you or pushing you in any particular direction is as important to investors as the weather and the ocean currents are to the navigator of a sailboat. They inform the allocation strategies and performance expectations for a variety of asset classes, business models, and policy choices over time. Today's conversation will expose you to a framework for thinking about the macroeconomy that is empirical, data-oriented, and very much based in reality—one that you can use to forecast major economic inflection points and their resulting impact on asset prices, a valuable tool for anyone trying to manage his or her portfolio or make informed investment decisions. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/26/2022

    Global Macro in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Demetri Kofinas

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2022 53:25

    In Episode 262 of Hidden Forces, I (Demetri Kofinas) share an interview I recently gave on “The Breakdown” with Nathaniel Whittemore, but not before delivering an important message, which has to do with a new Hidden Forces community tier that we will be launching. I'm excited to announce that we will be launching a new Hidden Forces community tier where you'll be able to get immediate access to me, my thoughts, special content, etc., along with private events that will include opportunities to ask questions directly to my guests and to me in real-time. We are giving you a preview of that experience this coming Wednesday, August 3rd, from 6:30 PM — 8 PM EST when I will be hosting a live video Q&A over zoom. Anyone can join and ask me pretty much any question they want so long as it is relevant to the podcast. The zoom call is open to anyone but we are limiting the number of people who can join this time just to keep things manageable. You can secure your spot on the list by going to HiddenForces.io/events and registering right now. The title of the event is “Investing Between the Wars,” and while listeners are free to ask any question they like, the focus of the Q&A is on how the changing political and geopolitical landscape is affecting your life and investments. Indeed, this is the subject that Nathaniel Whittemore and I discussed in my recent appearance on “The Breakdown.” I shared some of my own views and perspectives on markets and geopolitics as well as how I've incorporated my macro views of the political economy into my own investment decisions. The Breakdown is a daily analysis podcast that explores themes in macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics, and the big picture power shifts affecting the world. You can find it on any major podcast platform and at coindesk.com/podcasts and you can follow Nathaniel on Twitter at @NLW. You can access the transcript to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/18/2022

    American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Elbridge Colby

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2022 62:50

    In Episode 261 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Elbridge Colby, co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, an organization whose mission is to develop the diplomatic, military, and economic strategies that the United States will need to navigate a protracted era of great power competition. Colby has also served as US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development and was the chief architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS), which was by some estimates the most significant revision of U.S. defense strategy since 9/11, if not since the end of the Cold War. This is a conversation about the national security challenges that Elbridge Colby believes we face as a country, their urgency, and what is needed in terms of practical changes to our strategic objectives, the organization of our national defense, what we prioritize, and perhaps most importantly, our sense of mission, unity, and national purpose. Kofinas and Colby spend the first hour laying out the nature and scope of these challenges as they pertain to the Chinese Communist Party in particular, and to the degree that it acts in unison with Chinese objectives, the Russian Federation as well. The second hour is broken into two parts, the first of which covers specifics on how to meet the challenge, while the second focuses on Taiwan where Elbridge makes the case for why he believes that an attack on the island nation by China is not only likely but may come much sooner than most pundits and military planners expect. The consequences of such an attack would not only be destabilizing for the current equilibrium in Asia, but could escalate into a global kinetic conflict with hypersonic missiles, space warfare, cyber-attacks, and God forbid, the use of nuclear weapons. Preventing such scenarios from unfolding should be at the very top of our list of national priorities. Today's conversation is mean to help inform you about just how salient this threat is and what we can and perhaps should do about it. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/19/2022

    What's Driving the Price of Oil? A Supply-Side Story | Rory Johnson

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2022 3:02

    In Episode 260 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Rory Johnson. Rory is a widely quoted researcher and expert in global commodities markets. His work includes a variety of research and investment projects including his commodity market research platform at Commodity Context Dot Com, as well as both public market portfolio and private equity strategy at Price Street. This episode is for premium subscribers only and is part of an ongoing series of conversations that I've been curating with guests focused on investment themes and opportunities in the commodities complex. The goal of this conversation is to provide you with a more critical look at the supply side story in oil, refined products like gasoline and diesel, and to a lesser degree natural gas, including drivers of end-use demand for these commodities. The demand-side picture is much more difficult to project, as it requires assumptions about growth, monetary policy, and the further implementation of sanctions on Russian energy supplies. These are subjects we explored in recent episodes with Helen Thompson on Energy Geopolitics and Ian Bremmer on how to fight a geopolitical recession and are featured in the related tab on this week's episode page on our website. Rory and Demetri also discuss some of the financial data compiled by Rory in his most recent Global Oil Data Deck including calendar spreads and speculative positioning in major crude contracts and how we can use that information to help us anticipate the direction of and volatility in oil prices going forward. For premium subscribers to our super nerd tier, Rory has provided you with an abridged version of his data deck for the month of July which publishes in full on his commodity context substack today. You can access the full episode and transcript, along with the abridged version of Rory's Global Oil Data Deck by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/14/2022

    Turkish-Greek Relations & Battle Over the Eastern Mediterranean | Ryan Gingeras

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2022 61:46

    In Episode 259 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ryan Gingeras, a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on Turkish, Balkan, and Middle East history. Gingeras has authored six books on Turkish history and culture, including his forthcoming, “The Last Days of the Ottoman Empire,” which is scheduled for release by Penguin in October 2022. In recent years, Turkey has become an X-factor of sorts in global politics. Its president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has attracted the ire of liberal-minded politicians and his transactional political style has raised questions about Turkey's dependability as a NATO ally and about its long-term commitment to the rules-based international order. This is obviously a concern for the United States and NATO, but there is perhaps no country for whom Turkey's long-term orientation Westward carries more existential importance than Greece, which has been on the receiving end of escalating Turkish provocations and territorial violations of its internationally recognized maritime borders and airspace. This comes during a time when Turkish cooperation within NATO itself has become a bargaining chip of sorts that Ankara has used to further its own strategic objectives, as seen most recently in negations over Finish and Swedish membership. This conversation has two primary objectives. The first is to give you an understanding of the historical, political, and geostrategic forces responsible for driving Turkish foreign policy today, including the intellectual foundations for its more assertive, revanchist, and perhaps even expansionist ambitions—concepts and doctrines such as “strategic depth” and Mavi Vatan or “Blue Homeland,” which inform and explain much of Turkey's policy in the broader Middle East, Africa, and the Aegean. The second objective is to expose you to how the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa could evolve territorially in a world without NATO or where the post-WWII liberal international order continues to degrade or comes apart entirely. While this has more immediate implications for Greece, it also risks altering the larger territorial landscape of Eurasia in ways that most people would have found unimaginable at the beginning of the 21st century. What this could mean for citizens in these territories, for the politicians responsible for making policy within the various countries affected, and for investors and businesses looking to put capital to work in them cannot be understated. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/05/2022

    Rise of Shadow Banking & Risks of a Financial Crisis | Lev Menand

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2022 62:15

    In Episode 258 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Lev Menand, author of “The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis.” Menand is an associate professor of law at Columbia Law School who has worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and as a senior advisor to both the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury and the Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions. He joins Demetri for an important and timely conversation about the US Dollar and the evolution of the international financial system into a kind of Frankenstein's monster whose appendages and doppelgängers reach into the deepest recesses of the global economy. Dollar balances and dollar-based lending by institutions not regulated by the Federal Reserve—what we broadly refer to as the shadow banking system—have grown so large over the years that no one, not even the Fed, can actually quantify them. For most of us, awareness of just how dangerously complex the modern banking system has become was made clear fourteen years ago with the onset of what we now call “The Global Financial Crisis,” a supposedly once-in-a-lifetime event that almost repeated itself during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic when the Fed came to the rescue of markets to stop yet another financial panic that threatened to bring down the global financial system. Panics like these ultimately stem from a fear or inability on the part of financial counterparties to settle claims and honor liabilities. With the Fed now raising interest rates more aggressively than it has in almost thirty years the question that many investors, economists, and policymakers around the world should be asking themselves is “what is the likelihood that the events we experienced in 2008 and most recently in 2020 repeat themselves today?” Our objective in bringing you this conversation is to provide you with a foundational framework for understanding the forces responsible for driving crises of liquidity in the international dollar system during a time when those forces are growing stronger and stronger. In the process you are going to learn about the plumbing of the shadow banking system, the evolution of the eurodollar market, repos, money market funds, and so much more. The majority of that conversation takes place in the second hour of today's episode which is available to premium subscribers only. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/07/2022

    Energy Geopolitics & the Remaking of the Modern World | Helen Thompson

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 11, 2022 60:03

    In Episode 257 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Helen Thompson, author and Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge. Thompson's current research concentrates on the political economy of energy and the long history of the democratic, economic, and geopolitical disruptions of the twenty-first century, which she explores magisterially in her new book “Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century.”  For those of us who grew up in the 1980s and 1990s, the nature of the world as we knew it to be only seemed to be getting better and better. The price of energy and the cost of capital kept getting cheaper, the world kept getting safer and more interconnected, and liberal democracy and free-market capitalism were seen as inevitable outcomes of the end of history. Today, all of that feels like it was almost a dream. The last two decades have brought a powerful tide of geopolitical, economic, and democratic shocks onto the world. Their fallout has led central banks to create over twenty-five trillion dollars of new money, brought about a new age of geopolitical competition, destabilized the Middle East, ruptured the European Union, and exposed old political fault lines in the United States--fault lines that seem to challenge even those of the tumultuous 1960s and 1970s when the specter of nuclear war and the trauma of violent riots and political assassinations cast a long shadow over the future of the Republic. This conversation between Helen Thompson and Demetri Kofinas endeavors to draw a line of continuity between those turbulent years and the present political moment as we try to imagine how a future situated in the long arch of human history with all its political challenges, economic imperatives, and destructive wars might unfold. It recounts three histories. One about geopolitics, one about the world economy, and one about western democracies, and explains how in the years of political disorder prior to the pandemic, the disruption in each became part of one big story, much of which originates in problems generated by fossil-fuel energies and our efforts to control them. And it explains why, as the green transition takes place, the longstanding predicaments that energy invariably shapes will remain firmly in place. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/06/2022

    Value Investing & How to Have “Soul in the Game" | Vitaliy Katsenelson

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 4, 2022 3:02

    In Episode 256 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the CEO of Investment Management Associates, Vitaliy Katsenelson. Vitaliy is a well-known value investor and author of several books on investing and life. His latest, “Soul in the Game,” is a philosophical exploration of the sources of life's meaning told through a collection of day-to-day observations and insights about Vitaliy's early childhood in Russia, his experiences as a parent, and his love of classical music, and most importantly of art, which features prominently in their discussion. This conversation combines two of the objectives that Demetri laid out in the introduction to a recent episode he published on the subject of courage and self-actualization, namely his desire to take a more holistic approach to exploring and analyzing the macro challenges that we are all facing as a community, but which affect each and every one of us as individuals. Vitaliy has made that very easy to do, because he writes so prolifically about both of these things, whether it is the principals of value investing, his thoughts on the macro economy, markets, stagflation, or the path of interest rates, as well as how to cultivate objectivity, the benefits of introducing randomness into your life, and learning how to separate the things that you can't control from the things you can. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 06/28/2022

    The Power of Crisis & How to Fight a Geopolitical Recession | Ian Bremmer

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2022 49:42

    In Episode 255 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ian Bremmer. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading global research and consulting firm, and GZERO Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs. Bremmer is also the author of ten books, including his latest, “The Power of Crisis,” in which he argues that we are unprepared for a trio of looming crises in the areas of pandemic response, climate change, and the next technological revolution. All of these looming crises that Ian focuses on are subjects that we've explored in great depth over the years with folks like fmr. FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, NASA's Chief Climate Scientist Gavin Schmidt, Google's Eric Schmidt, and so many more. You can find all of those previous and relevant conversations in the related section on the episode page of our website. Because of the ongoing war in Ukraine and its effect on global commodity markets—and in particular oil & gas—our conversation with Ian leads with a discussion about climate policy. The discussion focuses specifically on the war in Ukraine, what it reveals about our vulnerabilities as we try transition towards more sustainable, carbon-free forms of energy production, and how to balance our national security concerns while still ensuring that we can meet the long-term climate goals set out in the 2016 Paris Agreement. In the second part of their conversation Kofinas and Bremmer continue their discussion about energy markets, eventually pivoting to a much broader conversation about the upcoming elections in 2022 and 2024, and specifically why there seems to be a persistent leadership deficit in American politics today and what we can do to change that. They also discuss media reform and what we can do as individuals and in some cases as influencers with large followings to have more constructive and good-faith conversations around the issues that matter to all of us as we navigate what may well be the most dangerous time for the international system since at least the early stages of the Cold War. The goal of today's conversation, among other things, is to bring you the perspective of someone who operates within some of the most powerful networks of people in the world—and is an advisor to many of them. Ian Bremmer has years of experience speaking with global leaders, CEO's of Fortune 100 companies, and experts across all industries & territories, making him an invaluable resource for anyone trying to think about the future path of policy, risks to global governance, and so much more.  You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 06/21/2022

    How to Trade Market Sentiment & Why Inflation Is Coming Down | Jared Dillian

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2022 54:14

    In Episode 254 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, a financial newsletter for professional investors focused on gauging market sentiment and how to capitalize on it. Dillian is also the author of two very successful books on Wall Street and investing and is the host of the Be Smart podcast, where he talks to his listeners about everything from how to sort out their personal finances to how to approach trading and investing in the stock market and everything in between. This conversation is yet another in a series of episodes that we've been doing focused on how to navigate the transition in market regimes and all of the challenges that this transition presents for our assumptions about markets and the world at large. Jared is the perfect person to speak to about this not just because of his focus on sentiment, but because he really is someone who stands apart. He's a contrarian in the purest sense of that word and during a time when many of the people we've had on this podcast increasingly seem to share similar perspectives on the future path of interest rates, inflation, and energy prices, bringing on someone like Jared is a way of holding ourselves and our ideas accountable–something that is especially important whenever money or investing are involved.  That said, Jared Dillian also has another unique quality which is that he publishes an investment newsletter, which means that he spends an enormous amount of time thinking through his investment ideas in public and that can be very tricky to do while also managing to invest successfully in those ideas, precisely because of how easy it is to become emotionally invested in being right. This is something that you will see time and time again in the financial news business. Financial commentators and pundits will twist themselves into pretzels trying to align their public statements, personas, and track records with an ever-changing set of market conditions.  Therefore, one of the topics that Jared and Demetri discuss is how not to do that and how to know when someone else is doing it. In other words, how to filter through information so that you know who to listen to, what to take from them, and then how to exercise a level of humility in your own investment mindset so that you don't get caught off-sides during a period of time where we think that market conditions and assumptions about risk and allocation will be changing faster than at any point since the great financial crisis. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 06/14/2022

    The Path Towards Self-Actualization & How to Overcome Your Fears | Demetri Kofinas

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2022 73:55

    In Episode 253 of Hidden Forces, I (Demetri Kofinas) share an interview I recently gave on the In-Bloom podcast hosted by Micaela Richmond. This was a pretty emotional conversation, and I don't want to spoil the episode by giving it away, but I do want to say that while the subjects I mostly cover on Hidden Forces are intellectual the things that matter most to me are most definitely not. Every now and then I publish episodes that speak to those things like my episode with Jerry Colona on the hero's journey and the art of growing up or my episode with Eugenia Zuckerman who courageously shared stories from her own experience living with Alzheimer's. These types of conversations speak to what I believe is common in all of us. Our common humanity and our capacity to experience joy and suffering as we try and make our lives matter. And that can be really hard especially when you're younger and you're just starting out, full of insecurities, self-doubt, impatience, fear…I dealt with a lot of fear when I was growing up—fear of failure, fear of disappointing others, fear of not amounting to anything. That was my greatest fear that I'd die and have made nothing of my life. It wasn't until I overcame those fears of failure and of not amounting to anything by learning to run into danger, by learning to run into the burning building that I found my path to bliss. And I say this because I know that millions of you out there feel exactly the same way even if you haven't found the words to articulate it. My hope is that today's conversation with Micaela can go some way in helping you identify, face, and overcome those fears regardless of where you are in your life, because those are the things that stand in the way of joy, love, and self-actualization. Those are the things that matter in life. Not money or fame or material success. The sooner you recognize that, the sooner you can come into relationship with the mystery of life from which I believe everything arises and ultimately returns. You can access the transcript to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/05/2022

    The New Era of Great Power Competition | John Mearsheimer & Stephen Walt

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2022 67:44

    In Episode 248 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with professors of international relations John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt. Professor Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and the author of multiple books including “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” “Why Leaders Lie,” and “The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities.” Professor Walt is the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is also the author of several books including “Revolution and War,” “Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy,” and most recently “The Hell of Good Intentions.” They both have appeared separately on the podcast before: professor Walt for a conversation on the decline of US primacy and professor Mearsheimer on the power of nationalism in international affairs. They are also both prominent members of the so-called “realist school” and their views have often run counter to the prevailing orthodoxy in Washington, which one could broadly characterize as interventionist. John Mearsheimer especially has gained attention for his views on Ukraine, which went viral after the recent Russian invasion. Just one of his videos on YouTube alone has been seen over 26 million times. Demetri asks him about that experience, why he thinks his views have resonated so strongly with the public, and if there's a connection between peoples' views on Ukraine and their positions on the larger culture wars that seem to be dividing so many of us in Western societies today. Of course, the conversation veers well beyond Ukraine, which is just the touching off point for a much larger discussion about the future of great power competition, the endurance of the alliance between Russia and China, America's pivot to Asia, and how Russia's invasion of Ukraine could actually make that easier, and what should the goals of American foreign policy be. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/10/2022

    The Revenge of Risk Rates & the Return of Dividend Investing | Daniel Peris

    Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2022 51:48

    In Episode 252 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Daniel Peris, Senior Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. Daniel is also the author of three books that together explore the intellectual underpinnings of modern portfolio allocation, with a particular focus on dividend investing, why it's fallen out of favor with investors over the last 30 years, and why dividend-paying securities are positioned to outperform some of their more growth-oriented, cashless competitors in the next 30. While our recent episodes with Tony Greer and Jeff Currie also focus on the rotation from growth stocks to value stocks, those conversations are industry-specific, namely, they focus on commodities and industrial resources. Conversely, the objective of today's conversation with Daniel is to narrow that focus to companies that pay some portion of their profits to shareholders, irrespective of industry. The goal of today's episode is to help you reimagine what is possible for your portfolios and how to manage them in a stagflationary global economy characterized by rising risk rates and persistently higher levels of financial volatility. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/23/2022

    How to Trade the Great Rotation From Big Tech to Commodities | Tony Greer

    Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2022 53:42

    In Episode 251 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to institutional and non-institutional clients alike. This conversation follows-up on a series of episodes we've published recently focused on the macro, political, and geopolitical economy, with an especially strong focus on commodities, currencies, and government policy. The goal with all of these episdoes has been to help listeners develop a framework for thinking about some of the big-picture trends driving markets and the economy, with the ultimate goal of helping them gain the type of conviction needed in order to invest successfully in them. Those who heard Demetri's recent episode with Grant Williams know that he was able to use this framework to profitably exit long-held positions in risk-assets ahead of the recent market downturn and even rotated some of those profits into commodities, though as he has said countless times he did not allocate nearly enough because he lacked conviction. He didn't know enough to feel confident in the Supercycle thesis that we laid out in our recent episode with Jeff Currie. He didn't fuly appreciate the supply-side picture that the team at Doomberg has been writing about so presciently for the past year and that we spoke with them about during Doomberg's recent appearance on Hidden Forces. So what does one do now? What does one do if he or she is persuaded by the thesis that long-term, structural forces restricting the supply of key commodities will support persistently high prices even in the face of relatively weak demand, but doesn't have conviction around what those prices could reasonably be, especially in the short-term ahead of a Fed tightening cycle? This is why we've brought Tony Greer on the podcast. Tony's specialty is trading commodities. He's been doing it for 30 years and we're going to rely on his experience to work through exactly the type of dilemma that has been laid out here and which many of you may also be struggling with. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/17/2022

    Revenge of the Dollar & the Meltdown in Global Markets | Brent Johnson

    Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2022 47:37

    In Episode 250 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with CEO of Santiago Capital and originator of the “Dollar Milkshake” theory, Brent Johnson. Brent and Demetri discuss his thesis on the Dollar as part of a much larger conversation about the sell-off that we're currently experiencing in risk assets, the dislocations we're seeing in currencies and currency pairs like Dollar-Yen, and how to position yourself as conditions change in real-time.  Because so much is happening in markets right now it is challenging to know where to focus your attention, which is why Brent's framework around the role of the US Dollar and its impact on financial flows is crucial for understanding what we're seeing in markets today. We have published countless episodes over the last several years in anticipation of the events that are transpiring today. We think we are in the end-game phase of what in our view has been a forty-year paradigm of falling interest rates, rising debt levels, low inflation, growing inequality, and peak globalization, all of which we believe are in the process of reversing. How that process unfolds and what assets and investments you want to be invested in during this time do not have straightforward answers, but conversations like this one with Brent are crucial in helping you think through the steps required to get you there. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/12/2022

    The Collapse of LUNA & UST and the Vulnerability in Crypto | Nathaniel Whittemore

    Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2022 2:45

    In Episode 249 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Nathaniel Whittemore, host of “The Breakdown” a podcast distributed by CoinDesk, which focuses on the big picture power shifts in the economy and society, seen through the lens of crypto. It's also the largest daily analysis podcast in the bitcoin and crypto space and one that Demetri has relied on to sort through the daily noise and to get a sense of its community's cultural attitudes and narratives for years. Demetri asked Nathaniel to come onto the podcast today to help him make sense of the events that have transpired in crypto over the last week, including the collapse of Terra Luna and its algorithmically maintained stablecoin UST. But they also discuss the overall state of the market and the implications and consequences of collapses like LUNA's for other stablecoins, as well as for regulation and participation in the space. Lastly, the two share their perspectives on what Demetri considers to be crypto's biggest vulnerability, which is its use as a life raft for a generation of younger investors who see it as their ticket out of the hamster wheel of policy-induced financial inequality and modern-day serfdom. What eventually becomes of these people—their disaffection and its manifestation in American political life is a question that they also consider.  You can access the full conversation and transcript to this premium-only episode by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/13/2022

    The New Era of Great Power Competition | John Mearsheimer & Stephen Walt

    Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2022 2:39

    In Episode 248 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with professors of international relations John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt. Professor Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and the author of multiple books including “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” “Why Leaders Lie,” and “The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities.” Professor Walt is the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is also the author of several books including “Revolution and War,” “Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy,” and most recently “The Hell of Good Intentions.” They both have appeared separately on the podcast before: professor Walt for a conversation on the decline of US primacy and professor Mearsheimer on the power of nationalism in international affairs. They are also both prominent members of the so-called “realist school” and their views have often run counter to the prevailing orthodoxy in Washington, which one could broadly characterize as interventionist. John Mearsheimer especially has caught flak for his views on Ukraine, which went viral after the recent Russian invasion. Just one of his videos on YouTube alone has been seen over 26 million times. Demetri asks him about that experience, why he thinks his views have resonated so strongly with the public, and if there's a connection between peoples' views on Ukraine and their positions on the larger culture wars that seem to be dividing so many of us in Western societies today. Of course, the conversation veers well beyond Ukraine, which is just the touching off point for a much larger discussion about the future of great power competition, the endurance of the alliance between Russia and China, America's pivot to Asia and how Russia's invasion of Ukraine could actually make that easier, and what should the goals of American foreign policy be. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/10/2022

    Revenge of the Old Economy & How to Invest in the Commodity Supercycle | Jeff Currie

    Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2022 60:47

    In Episode 247 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jeff Currie, global head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs and an expert on commodity markets, commodity dynamics related to corporate risk management & geopolitics, and how to invest strategically in what Jeff Currie believes is a “commodity supercycle.” Currie is a fountain of knowledge and uniquely good at breaking down the market dynamics and material importance of an industry that incorporates every single aspect of the global economy from capital markets, to supply chains, to international politics. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for businesses and governments who need to navigate and plan for a future that is going to look radically different from anything that we have seen in a very long time. They are also crucial to understand for anyone managing money, as are the forces currently at work in the real economy and how multiple cycles of underinvestment, rising costs of capital, deglobalization, and wealth inequality to name just a few, are converging to create the greatest period of financial, economic, and political change in a hundred years. Fortunes will be made and many more will be lost during this period, and today's conversation with Jeff is meant to provide yet another important piece to understanding this very big puzzle. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/04/2022

    The End of the Beginning for Crypto | Michael Anderson & Vance Spencer of Framework Ventures

    Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2022 42:27

    In Episode 246 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Anderson and Vance Spencer. Michael and Vance are the founders of Framework Ventures, a crypto-native venture capital firm with a team of technologists, researchers, and investors that actively build alongside the companies and protocols in which they invest. They were on the podcast two years ago to discuss their thesis on the opportunities in decentralized finance and they are back on today to talk about blockchain gaming and their latest, big bet on the future of the crypto industry. We are huge fans of these guys. They're thoughtful. They're passionate. And they're native. They've grown up in this space and their investment philosophy and framework reflect this. Besides discussing the opportunities in gaming, Michael and Vance also share elements of their approach to investing in crypto, how they source deals and outcompete legacy venture funds with deep pockets in an industry that is long on capital but short on know-how: the type of know-how that results from a philosophy of active participation running nodes, staking assets, providing security reviews, building tools, and participating in network governance. Our objective in bringing you this conversation is to give you a roadmap for investing in what can often feel like an intimidating and rapidly changing space that we believe will nonetheless produce some of the biggest value generating opportunities in software and some of the most rewarding opportunities for cultivating monetizable online experiences and collaboration on the Internet. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/20/2022

    How to Position & Prepare Yourself for the End Game | Grant Williams

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 25, 2022 54:07

    In Episode 245 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Grant Williams. Grant is the host of the Grant Williams Podcast and the author of the “Things that Make You Go Hmmm…” newsletter, which you can find at Grant-Williams.com. We are grappling with what will turn out to be the greatest socio-economic and political changes in one hundred years. What these changes will mean for the future of democracy, civil society, and the viability of capitalism are what today's conversation is all about. How you choose to position yourself in anticipation of these changes is one of the most important challenges you will ever face as an investor and sovereign individual. This episode is meant to help you work through those challenges and guide you through the changes to come. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/18/2022

    Global Food Shortages & the Need for Energy Security | Doomberg

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 18, 2022 45:47

    In Episode 244 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the always congenial, yet uncompromisingly opinionated chicken, Doomberg. Doomberg's expertise in heavy industry makes him the perfect guest to discuss what's happening in energy and commodity markets. So, it's no surprise that he and Demetri talked about this, as well as the investment opportunities in uranium, which Doomberg has written about extensively in his most recent post on substack titled “Sitting Down With Sprott.” The two also discuss the renewed lockdowns in Shanghai, how they compound existing global food and supply chain issues, and how those issues are part of a larger set of challenges that will lead to food shortages, particularly in the developing world. This has implications for everyone on the planet, even the developed countries, but especially the Europeans who will experience even more migratory pressure from Africa and the Middle East. This adds to the destabilizing political forces that we've described so many times on this podcast. this  part of the episode along with a discussion about the future monetary system are all in the second half of their conversation, which is available to premium subscribers only.  You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's episode by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/11/2022

    How to Survive in the New Economic & Financial Order | Russell Napier

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2022 54:11

    In Episode 243 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor and financial historian Russell Napier. Russel was on the podcast a year ago for a conversation about his book on the Asian Financial Crisis and “The Birth of the Age of Debt.” Today's episode picks up where that conversation left off, building on the foundations of the post-Bretton Woods system of flexible exchange rates and dollar hegemony to speculate on what comes next—on what the new order that is now being born will look like, how it will operate, and what its implications will be for economies, industries, portfolios, and the role of the dollar in the new, international monetary system. It's a conversation about inflation, war, and how to position oneself for a new world where old assumptions about monetary policy, risk-taking, and the power and influence of governments to shape economic opportunities will need to be radically rethought. Understanding who the winners and losers of this new economic and political order will be, as well as the asset classes, industries, and companies that will benefit from it is an imperative for investors. This conversation is meant to help you develop the mindset and strategies that you will need to navigate this new world. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/07/2022

    The Information War & Things Worth Fighting For | Demetri Kofinas

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 4, 2022 76:00

    In Episode 242 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas shares an appearance he made on “The Realignment” podcast a week before the invasion of Ukraine. Demetri spoke to the seriousness with which he views the information problem and the information war that we're all combatants in today, the move from unipolarity to a world of disorder, as well as the spiritual deadening that he feels we've all been living through. He also discusses the need for both a national purpose and a sense of self that is inclusive, communal, and forgiving of our individual shortcomings—a sense of self that makes space for the imperfections of a human life. The world that we are living in today is not the world that most of us grew up in and the next few years are going to be crucial in determining how we want to face the challenges of this new world and more importantly who we want to be coming out the other side of it. What matters to us? Who are we, beyond the carefully curated exteriors that we present on our social media feeds? What do we deem worth fighting for? That's a question we have yet to answer and haven't had to answer for a very long time. This is a luxury we can no longer afford. You can access the full episode and transcript to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 02/16/2022

    Preparing the U.S. & Europe for Russian Cyber Attacks | Chris Painter

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 28, 2022 41:14

    In Episode 241 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chris Painter, a globally recognized leader and expert on cyber security who has been at the vanguard of U.S. and international cyber issues for over thirty years—first as a prosecutor of some of the most high-profile cybercrime cases in the country and then as a senior official at the Department of Justice, FBI, the National Security Council, and the State Department. He's responsible for having established the Office of the Coordinator for Cyber Issues and served as Senior Director for Cyber Policy in the National Security Council. With the Biden administration reiterating prior warnings that the Russian Government is exploring options for conducting cyberattacks against the United States in response to sanctions levied against the Russian economy, we wanted to help bring all of you up to speed on exactly what those warnings are, what steps are being taken to minimize the damage they may cause, and what the range of possible responses by the U.S. government will be depending on the nature and targets of those attacks. This conversation is meant to give you the information that you need in order to best prepare yourselves and your businesses for what might be coming next, so that you remain ahead of the curve as events evolve and as the collateral damage of the war in Ukraine potentially widens. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/24/2022

    Risks of Nuclear War & the Escalation Ladder | Jon Wolfsthal

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 24, 2022 42:48

    In Episode 240 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jon Wolfsthal, a veteran of the national security establishment who has served as both special assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Affairs and senior director at the National Security Council for arms control and nonproliferation. He's been involved in almost every aspect of U.S. nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation and security policy during his 30-years of working on issues of national security. This episode is an exploration of US and Russian nuclear doctrine and decision-making protocols. It's a conversation about how people and institutions in both the United States and Russia think about nuclear war and escalation management, acknowledging that nuclear war would be an unimaginable horror that no rational person would actually want. Today's conversation is meant to give you the information you need to wrap your arms around what may instinctively feel like a hopelessly scary and irrational situation, so that you can develop the composure you need in order to deal with it. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/21/2022

    The Battle for Ukraine & Prospects for World War III | Peter Zeihan

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2022 49:53

    In Episode 239 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Peter Zeihan geopolitical strategist and author of the soon-to-be-released book “The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.” Demetri asked Zeihan back on the podcast in order to get his perspective on the very serious situation that is unfolding in Ukraine and Eastern Europe at the moment. We discuss the European security theatre, US-Russia relations, the risks of military confrontation with NATO, nuclear escalation, and knock-on effects to global energy markets and food systems. We also speculate on China's involvement in the diplomatic efforts over Ukraine, the implications for Taiwan, the US Dollar system, and so much more. Our objective in bringing you this conversation is to situate the war in Ukraine within this larger geopolitical framework, so that when you see things like Saudi Arabia engaging in talks with China to price some of its oil sales in Renminbi or Egyptian bonds selling off over concerns about wheat shortages and rising prices you are able to put it all in context. The full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation can be accessed by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/17/2022

    Hidden Forces Event in New York City | Thursday, March 31st

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2022 3:53

    I'm hosting an event at Ideal Glass Studios in New York City's Greenwich Village on Thursday, March 31st. The event includes a panel featuring the founders of Nillion, a decentralized public network based on an exciting new cryptographic primitive called Nil Message Compute (NMC) that I recently covered in Episode 234 with Miguel De Vega. Attendees will have a chance to learn more about the project, ask questions of the panelists, and socialize with fellow Hidden Forces listeners and past guests of the podcast who will also be in attendance. Doors open at 6 PM EDT and the panel will begin promptly at 7 PM. Make sure to RSVP here while there are still seats available.

    Quantifying Structural Risk in 'Zombified' Markets | Hari Krishnan & Ash Bennington

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2022 52:20

    In Episode 238 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Hari Krishnan (Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital) and Ash Bennington (Senior & Crypto Editor at Real Vision) about their book “Market Tremors: Quantifying Structural Risks in Modern Financial Markets.” Since the Global Financial Crisis, market structure has undergone a dramatic shift. A combination of Central Bank policy, disintermediation of commercial banks through regulation, and the growth of passive products such as ETFs have ‘zombified' markets. Risk has increasingly built up beneath the surface through a combination of excessive leverage and crowded exposure to specific asset classes and strategies. In many cases, historical volatility understates prospective risk. This conversation is meant to expose you to some of the ideas behind Market Tremors, which provides a practical and wide-ranging framework for dealing with the credit, positioning, and liquidity risk that investors face in modern markets. Ash and Hari draw on the fields of statistical physics and game theory to simplify and quantify the impact of very large agents on the distribution of forward returns, and offer techniques for dealing with situations where markets are structurally risky yet realized volatility is low. You can access the transcript and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/14/2022

    A History of Venture Capital & How to Make the Future | Sebastian Mallaby

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 14, 2022 46:27

    In Episode 237 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with journalist, historian, and author Sebastian Mallaby about his latest book, “The Power Law,” which delves into the history of the venture capital industry and early-stage investing. This conversation is meant to provide you with a framework for thinking about how to invest in businesses, initiatives, and projects, which not only lack cash flows, but whose values are often fundamentally intangible, difficult to measure, and often impossible to quantify. As more and more of our economic life happens in the digital realm, the ability to assess value and invest accordingly will become an increasingly invaluable skill-set for investors. In Part Two of their conversation, which is available to premium subscribers only, Sebastian and I delve into the geopolitics of venture capital, some of the approaches to investing in this space, and how national governments can participate in order to support their domestic defense sectors without creating the malincentives that we often associate with 9-figure fighter jets and four-hundred-dollar hammers. Demetri and Sebastian also discuss Web3 in the context of initial coin offerings and how these types of crowdsourced investments have transformed the early stage landscaped and brought public capital into areas of the market that would have never been able to source it only 10 years ago. Lastly, Sebastian offers his views on the uniquely challenging situation facing the Fed Reserve at the moment and what he thinks is most important to focus on when trying to project the likely path for interest rates, economic growth, and asset prices. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 02/15/2022

    Economic Warfare & the Weaponization of the Dollar | Julia Friedlander

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 10, 2022 43:51

    In Episode 236 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Julia Friedlander, the C. Boyden Gray senior fellow & director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center. Ms. Friedlander served as senior policy advisor for Europe in the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, where she collaborated with EU partners on global sanctions policy and combatting illicit finance and as director for the European Union, Southern Europe and Economic Affairs at the National Security Council, charged with coordinating U.S. interagency policy on transatlantic relations and the European Union for White House. Julia's extensive experience in economic statecraft make her the perfect person to speak to about the the sanctions that have been and continue to be levied against the Russian economy and its political class. We discuss what these sanctions mean in practice and what it is that makes them so unprecedented, as well as the intended and unintended consequences for the prosecution of Russia's war against Ukraine. Aditional topics include the effect of sanctions on the geopolitical stability of Europe, the future of Russia, and the position of the dollar at the center of the international, financial system. You can access the transcript and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/07/2022

    Russia-Ukraine War & Risks of NATO-Russia Escalation | Dmitri Alperovitch

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2022 51:31

    In Episode 235 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the fmr. CTO and co-founder of CrowdStrike Dmitri Alperovitch about the latest developments in the war between Russia and Ukraine, including the risks of escalation between Russia & NATO, implications for US-Sino relations, cyberattacks against Western countries, political warfare, and much more. Dmitri Alperovitch was on this podcast late last year for an episode titled “Why Putin Plans to Invade Ukraine,” in which he explained why he was convinced that Vladimir Putin was going to invade Ukraine in January or February of 2022. It was a controversial view at the time that proved to be absolutely correct in retrospect. Kofinas asked him back on the podcast to help explain (1) why so many people struggled to see this war coming, (2) the ramifications of Putin's actions, including his strategic and perhaps, even messianic motivations, (3) risks of escalation, (4) pathways for de-escalation, (5) the implications of this war for US-Sino relations in negotiations over Taiwan, (6) the remilitarization of Germany and the strategic security of Europe, (7) and much more. Dmitri's background in cybersecurity and forensic analysis also proved useful during a discussion about cyber warfare and the dangers of cyber escalation on the part of Russia in responding to Western economic sanctions. The primary objective of today's episode is to bring you up-to-speed on the latest developments in this geopolitical drama, with the larger, more long-term goal of helping you wrap your arms around some of the more nuanced aspects of the diplomatic crisis so that you know what to focus on, who listen to, and how to think about the types of risks that all of us face going forward.   You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/04/2022

    Nillion NMC: A Secure Processing Layer for Web3 | Miguel de Vega

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 28, 2022 61:52

    In Episode 234 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Dr. Miguel de Vega, the creator of Nillion's new cryptographic primitive, Nil Message Compute (NMC). Nillion allows a decentralized network of nodes to work together using a non-blockchain technology known as Secure Multi-Party Computation (SMPC) to store and process information at essentially centralized server speed, all while remaining information-theoretic secure (ITS). This unique feature represents a significant breakthrough in decentralized systems, allowing Nillion to operate the first decentralized and permissionless public SMPC network at scale. Its security and performance characteristics enable Nillion to not only serve as a secure processing layer for Web3, but also as a source of off-chain computation, as a decentralized private enclave, and as an enabler of interoperability between ledgers. Today's conversation is meant to give you an early introduction to this potentially transformative technology. Demetri will also be hosting a Hidden Forces panel event with Chief Scientist and inventor of Nillion, Dr. Miguel de Vega; Chief Strategy Officer, Andrew Masanto; and CEO, Alex Page, at Ideal Glass Studios in New York City's Greenwich Village on Thursday, March 31st, where you can learn more about the project, meet key members of the founding team, and socialize with other listeners and guests of the podcast. Doors open at 6 PM EDT and the panel will begin promptly at 7 PM. You can RSVP for the event HERE and access a special advanced copy of the Nillion whitepaper HERE. You can get early access to the episode, as well as the episode transcript and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 02/18/2022

    Update on Ukraine & US-Russia Escalation

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2022 2:05

    The war in Ukraine has broken out while I've been away on vacation. This is an update for listeners so that you know what to expect from the show in the next couple of weeks. In the meanwhile, you can follow me on Twitter at @kofinas, where I have been sharing my thoughts on the geopolitical situation, as well as retweeting those of the people I follow in order to stay abreast of events as they evolve. This is a dangerous time for the world, but especially for the people of Ukraine who have shown incredible courage in the face of an aggressive adversary whose motivations and final objectives remain unclear at this point in time.

    The PayPal Mafia & the Founders Who Shaped Silicon Valley | Jimmy Soni

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2022 48:05

    In Episode 233 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with award-winning author and recurring Hidden Forces guest Jimmy Soni about his newst book on the PayPal Mafia and the founders who shaped Silicon Valley and transformed the Fintech and online payments industry. The history of the so-called “PayPal Mafia” does not simply constitute the individual histories of star-studded founders like Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Reed Hoffman, and others. The history of PayPal is in many ways the history of the future. It's about a company that was in so many ways ahead of its time. PayPal was fintech before anyone even knew what that word meant. It was one of the earliest pioneers of what former team member and later LinkedIn founder Reed Hoffman would dub “blitzscalling,” which is what you do when you need to grow really, really fast. And that's what PayPal's founders did, and they did it while under constant threat of extinction, from not only criminals trying to defraud their customers or competitors trying to take their business, but also from each other. And that's because the story of the PayPal mafia is also the story of an unlikely, but nonetheless successful merger of two very different but equally competitive cultures, that of Elon Musk's X.com and Peter Thiel's Confinity. The objective of this episode is to give you a historical context for many of the business practices that have since become standard operating procedures across both Silicon Valley and Wallstreet. Things like CAPTCHA, blitzscalling, and micro-deposits, just to name a few. All of these innovations came out of a company under siege for almost the entire course of its pre-IPO existence, and it was in many ways this daily battle for survival that was central to shaping not only PayPal's culture, but its success: the type of success that every entrepreneur and every founder dreams of. Most of the conversation about fraud, using financial incentives to effectively buy customers and scale quickly, as well as a discussion about the intersection of fintech and cryptocurrency is featured in the second part of our episode available on our premium subscriber feed. Anyone signed up to our Super Nerd tier can also access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 02/14/2022

    Monetary Tightening & the End of the Risk-on Trade | Mohamed El-Erian

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 14, 2022 51:53

    In Episode 232 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College Cambridge and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where Mohamed was CEO and co-chief investment officer from 2007 to 2014. El-Erian is one of the most gifted communicators in finance who is intimately connected with the global policymaking community. He has a unique perspective on one of the most important forces driving financial markets and his insights into government policy are invaluable to investors the world over. In this conversation, Mohamed shares his views on the direction of Fed policy, his projection for rate hikes in early 2022, and what it will take for the Fed to regain control of the inflation narrative. The growing geopolitical instability between the US, Europe, China, and Russia is another subject that El-Erian and Demetri discuss in the context of market psychology, with an eye on its potentially destabilizing effects on global liquidity. The two also discuss crypto, how it has benefited from a narrative of monetary dysfunction, and whether or not it can survive the ire of regulators in 2022 and 2023. You can access this week's intelligence report along with the episode transcript to this conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 02/01/2022

    The Metaverse, Virtual Worlds, and the Problems of Philosophy | David Chalmers

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 7, 2022 53:58

    In Episode 231 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with renowned philosopher and author of “Reality+” David Chalmers about the metaverse, the nature of reality, and the problems of philosophy in a virtual world. David's central thesis is that the metaverse and virtual reality are genuine realities and that we may be living in such virtual worlds already. Along the way, Demetri and David conduct a grand tour of big ideas in philosophy and science, using virtual reality technology to explore new perspectives on long-established philosophical questions. How do we know that there's an external world? Is there a god? What is the nature of reality? What's the relation between mind and body? How can we lead a good life? All of these questions are illuminated or transformed in this mind-bending episode. In the second part of their conversation, David and Demetri imagine not only what it would be like to live in a simulated world, but whether or not it would be possible to do so without becoming a slave to someone else's reality. David also shares his views on Web3 and whether or not such protocols could play a role in helping people live freer and better lives in the metaverse. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 02/01/2022

    Robinhood, Reddit, & the Revolt of the Retail Investor | Spencer Jakab

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 31, 2022 68:39

    In Episode 230 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Spencer Jakab, an award-winning financial journalist who edits the Wall Street Journal's “Heard on the Street” column and who is out with a new book chronicling one of the craziest news stories of the last few years. The story centers on a motley crew of retail traders on Reddit's r/WallStreetBets forum who almost broke the Internet by using social media, the Robinhood trading app, and a sophisticated understanding of options contracts to wreak havoc on Wall Street while making a fortune doing it. This is a retrospective on the now infamous GameStop/$GME: the video game retailer who attracted crazy amounts of media attention this time last year. Spencer and I discuss the facts of the story in detail, how the meme stock squeeze unfolded, who the winners were, and what the deeper significance of this story really is. One year later, what does it reveal to us about how our financial system works, the corrosive influence of years and years of easy money, and the dereliction of regulators to regulate? And what do we make of the metanarrative that's taken hold in society today, which says that “it's all just a narrative?” If that's true, what does that say about not only where the markets are going, but our economy and society as well? These are all questions that Demetri and Spencer explore in this phenomenal and thought provoking episode. You can access the transcript and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 01/24/2022

    Why Did the Future Arrive First in Russia? | Peter Pomerantsev

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2022 56:42

    In Episode 229 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Peter Pomerantsev, a Soviet-born British journalist, former TV producer, and author about the break-down in belief systems and shared mythologies that we are experiencing in the West and why this has left so many people feeling increasingly cynical about the world and indifferent towards the future. Peter was early in his diagnosis, having first experienced this phenomenon during his time living and working in Russia. It was not long after that experience and the publication of his first book “Nothing is True, But Everything Is Possible” that he began to notice some of the things that he wrote about in that book—the cynicism, the sense of surreality, the nostalgia, and what he described as an “aggressive apathy”—showing up in Western countries. And he began to ask himself the question, “Why did the future arrive first in Russia?” This is the question that we seek to answer in today's episode, because some of the same forces that were operational in the late-Soviet Union and in early post-Soviet Russia are at work in Western societies today. If we want to understand what the future might look like when trust in institutions has completely deteriorated, when grounding notions of identity and meaning have all but disappeared, when any independent standard of truth has become so elusive that people are willing to believe in anything and the only thing left to unify us is raw and unbridled power, then we would be wise to not only understand the path that Russia has followed in the last several decades but to do everything in our power to avoid following it any further. It leads to only one place and that is a postmodern, repressive society that uses the language and institutions of democratic capitalism for authoritarian ends. You can access the full episode, transcript, and rundown to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 01/14/2022

    The Kazakhstan Protests & Russia's Standoff With the West | Joanna Lillis

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2022 39:34

    In Episode 228 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Kazakhstan-based journalist Joanna Lillis, author of “Dark Shadows: Inside the Secret World of Kazakhstan,” about the recent protests and unrest that unfolded in Kazakhstan over the past two weeks and how this ties into the larger geopolitical chess match currently underway in Eastern Europe. This is the multi-polar world in action. It's no longer some theoretical thing that we've read about or that we're moving towards—we are in it. This is the world we live in, and in this world, everything is up for grabs. Every crisis, every border skirmish, every negotiation is an opportunity for any and all of the major powers to change the status quo and to change the rules of the game to their advantage. And this starts with taking control of the story and telling a narrative about events before the facts emerge and before people have had a chance to even begin to form an educated opinion about whatever it is that's happening. Today's episode is meant to provide you with a sense of where and how the events in Kazakhstan fit into this new global disorder of nation states, non-state actors, mercenaries, agitators, hackers—pretty much everyone interested in exercising influence on an international stage that is fluid and where power is constantly up for grabs. The world is becoming ever more complex and if you want to exercise a level of agency over your own sense of reality and be anything other than a spectator in someone else's story you need to step back from all the noise and all the hustles and exercise a level of informed skepticism without simply resorting to questioning everything and therefore believing in nothing. This is what Hidden Forces is all about. You can access the full episode, transcript, and rundown to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 01/11/2022

    Is America Undergoing a Narrative Reset or Realignment? | Saagar Enjeti & Marshall Kosloff

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2022 63:54

    In Episode 227 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Saagar Enjeti and Marshall Kosloff, the co-hosts of “The Realignment,” an absolutely phenomenal podcast that consistently produces some of the best conversations at the intersection of politics and society that you will find anywhere. They are both successful entrepreneurs and thought leaders in their own rights—Saagar Enjeti interviewed former president Donald Trump four separate times in his capacity as Chief Whitehouse Correspondent for the Daily Caller and currently co-hosts the immensely popular “Breaking Points” with Krystal Ball. Marshall Kosloff is an executive producer at “On Deck” where he also hosts “The Deep End,” a podcast where he interviews visionary builders, creators, and experts with world-changing ideas related to the futures of commerce, higher education, governance, longevity, art, and more. Demetri asked them both to come onto the podcast in order to help him better understand the forces driving dysfunction in American politics, along with phenomenon of rising public mistrust of institutions, and a deeping sense of paranoia in the body politic. Saagar, Marshall, and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation discussing how we got here, why the so-called “political experts” whose job it is to explain what's happening have consistently failed to do so, what the new political consensus is that's forming in American life, and what it is that the majority of Americans want—what in other words, would constitute a popular platform on which to not only run a successful campaign but from which to govern successfully or are these two things fundamentally incompatible in today's celebrity-driven, fake it till you make it culture that seems to reward the aesthetics over power in place of power itself? The second hour of their conversation is spent discussing what Kofinas suggests may be a multi-decade breakdown in belief systems driven by a series of recurring failures, covered up by lies, succeeded by more failures like the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, the 2008 financial crisis and its culture of never-ending bailouts, and most recently the Covid-19 pandemic and the confusing directives and open disregard by health authorities of legitimate public concerns around the vaccines, the risks associated with taking them, mandating who should take them, etc. This also opens the door to a conversation about the changing media landscape and the growing power of independent voices like Joe Rogan's to influence public opinion and force issues into the public square that would otherwise be deemed off-limits by those in positions of public authority.   You can access the second part of this episode, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's conversation through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. For those interested in gaining early access to the new Hidden Foces subscription platform on Supercast, please email info@hiddenforces.io for a discount link. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 01/04/2022

    Why Putin Plans to Invade Ukraine & What the West Can Do About It | Dmitri Alperovitch

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 3, 2022 43:38

    In Episode 226 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Dmitri Alperovitch, the former CTO and co-founder of CrowdStrike, the world's largest cybersecurity company, which has been involved in investigations of several high-profile cyberattacks including the 2014 Sony Pictures hack, the 2015–2016 cyber-attacks on the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and the 2016 email leak involving the DNC. Alperovitch currently serves as Chairman of the non-profit Silverado Policy Accelerator, where he focuses on advancing American prosperity and global leadership by working directly with both the executive branch and Capitol Hill on issues related to cyber, trade & industrial security, and ecological & economic security. What prompted this conversation was a Twitter thread that Dmitri published recently, in which he explained why he believes the Kremlin has already made its decision to invade Ukraine later this winter—in late January or possibly early February—and that military confrontation is in fact the preferred route for Putin at this point. It's a fascinating thread and we encourage you all to read through it after listening to today's episode. Kofinas and Alperovitch spend the first half of their conversation discussing the various signals that Dimitri believes point to the increased likelihood of a military invasion of Ukraine and the partitioning of the country by Russia in the next several months, as well Putin's possible motivations and objectives in doing so. The second part of their conversation, which is available to premium subscribers focuses on the cyber component of this conflict, including evidence of increased cyber intrusions into the Ukrainian government and civilian networks, what the targets have been, and what can be further inferred about the Kremlin's objectives based on the nature of those targets. Alperovitch also shares his views on how he thinks the Biden administration can credibly respond to the mounting pressure on Ukraine's defenses, the effectiveness of sanctions as a tool for dissuading Russian aggression as well as for punishing Kremlin leadership after the fact, and the similarities between Ukraine and Taiwan and what lessons the Chinese communist party may be drawing from our response or failure to respond to mounting Russian aggression on Ukraine's eastern border. You can access the second part of this episode, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's conversation through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 12/27/2021

    Meditations on Courage & Why Fortune Favors the Brave | Ryan Holiday

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 27, 2021 4:46

    In Episode 225 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ryan Holiday, a popular author whose books have made philosophy and the writings of the ancients interesting and accessible to millions of people. He's done this with bestselling books like “The Obstacle is the Way” and “Ego is the Enemy” and he continues to do this with his latest book “Courage is Calling.”  Demetri and Ryan discuss what courage is, why it matters, and if we can learn to live and act courageously. We are living in a time when people would rather stand on the sidelines than speak out against injustice, go along with convention, or bet on their own talents and abilities. And yet, Ryan would argue that we need courage now more than ever. Our hope is that today's conversation with Ryan will give cause to reflect on how you want to meet the challenges in your own life and what will give you the courage to face your fears and to make choices in this new year from a place of integrity that honors who you are and who you aspire to be. If you want access to this week's premium episode with Ryan Holiday, as well as the transcript and rundown to his conversation with Demetri, you can access all of those through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 12/22/2021

    The 'Restart of History' & How to Invest in a Broken Economy | Demetri Kofinas

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2021 49:47

    In Episode 224 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas appears as a guest on the Mining Stock Daily, a podcast by Trevor Hall which focuses on the junior mining and mineral exploration sector. Their conversation centers on the macro, big-picture themes of society, polity, economy, and culture that preoccupy most of Demetri's attention, as well as on his own approach to investing. You can find more information about Trevor's podcast at miningstockdaily.com where you can listen to the entire, original episode, which mainly includes stories from Demetri's time working in media and his thoughts about the difference between mediums like radio, TV, and podcasting.  There is no overtime to this episode, but you can still subscribe to our premium content and gain access to all past and future overtimes, transcripts, and rundowns through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 12/09/2021

    The Power of Independent Voices & How to Make It in the Gig Economy

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2021 51:20

    In Episode 223 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Doomberg, an anonymous publisher and the proprietor of a bespoke consulting firm that provides advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. The firm's principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems. In the first hour of today's conversation, Demetri and Doomberg discuss how to build a successful publishing company and what it takes to cultivate an audience in today's decentralized, networked economy and fragmented media ecosystem. They discuss what that process has been like for the Doomberg team, what goes into building a brand from scratch, and the opportunities that have emerged for independent voices, and how to capitalize on them. In the second hour, they transition into a conversation about cancel culture, the power of platforms vs. audiences, and what it means to have a dedicated group of followers who are willing to go to defend you in the event that you end up in the crosshairs of the censors or a mob of activists. Demetri and Doomberg also discuss some of the topics that he writes about on his doomberg.substack.com page, including America's and Europe's energy policies, why he thinks they don't work, and what it will take in order to fix them. The two end with a more macro-oriented conversation about inflation and the influence of the economy on asset markets vs. the influence of monetary policy and which one is really in the driver's seat. You can access the second part of this episode, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's conversation through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 12/06/2021

    How the US Navy Creates Prosperity & Why We'll Miss It | Gregg Easterbrook

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2021 49:34

    In Episode 222 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Gregg Easterbrook. Gregg was a staff writer, national correspondent, and contributing editor at The Atlantic and has authored thirteen books about a variety of subjects including climate change, globalization, philosophy, and American football. Demetri and Gregg explore the subject of Easterbrook's latest book, “The Blue Age.” They discuss the extraordinary transformation of the international trading order that we've been living through over the last seventy years and the unique role that the US Navy and advancements in naval architecture and marine engineering have played in making all of that possible. It's difficult to appreciate just how unprecedented this long period of peace on the oceans has been and how extraordinary the deflationary pressures are that this peace has unleashed. It has also had huge implications for the expansion of credit, the reduction of volatility, and the growth in asset values in Western markets—topics that we've explored from a variety of different angles on the Hidden Forces podcast. What it might mean for our economies and for our lives if the Blue Age comes to an end is a question that is addressed directly during the first hour of today's episode. In the second half of today's episode, which is available to premium subscribers only, Gregg and Demetri focus on the economic and geopolitical aspects of the Blue Age, the likelihood of conflict on the high seas, the incentives for and against it, and its consequences for the global economy. They also discuss some of the factors driving the current bottlenecks in global supply chains, the shipping industry's contribution to this, and why Gregg feels that those bottlenecks will be largely resolved before the end of next year. You can access the second part of this episode, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's conversation through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/30/2021

    Jim Grant on What Inflation Means for Asset Values, Crypto, and Meme Stocks

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2021 51:32

    In Episode 221 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Grant, the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer: a legend in the business of investor education and financial media. What separates Jim from millions of his fellow financial journalists, commentators, and authors is the historical perspective that he brings, informed not just by the immense volume of books and periodicals that he's consumed over the course of his lifetime, but primarily by the wisdom of his own lived experiences and lessons learned from the experiences of others that he's had the privilege to know and interview over the course his life. Given the ongoing controversy around inflation—its causes and consequences—we couldn't think of anyone better to talk to than Jim Grant. Jim has been warning his readers about the unintended consequences of overly-accommodative Fed policy and dollar debasement for as long as we have known him and he is uniquely positioned to provide us with the historical context to understand where we find ourselves in the present cycle. What we came to this conversation wanting to know from Jim, as someone who has lived through at least 3 major credit cycles, is if in fact he feels that this inflation is not transitory. If in fact, he thinks that we are in the process of up-anchoring inflation expectations and what this means for the Fed's policy options, with important implications for assets like stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, etc., whose prices have depended on the free-flow of credit that becomes less readily available in an environment of rising consumer and producer prices. This is a phenomenal conversation that will help you integrate the history of inflation and what we know about its causes into the unique circumstances of our modern political-economy, which is characterized by historically high debt levels, aging demographics, and technology-driven deflation, in a way that can make you a better, more thoughtful investor.  Topics discussed during the Overtime include precious metals, cryptocurrency, meme stocks, ethics in journalism, and more. You can access that part of the conversation, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/18/2021

    What Happened to the American Economy & How to Fix It | Julius Krein

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2021 60:09

    In Episode 220 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Julius Krein, the editor of American Affairs, a quarterly journal of policy and political-economy that delves into the deeper sociopolitical, cultural, and economic issues facing America and other Western countries. The episode is broken into two parts, the first hour of which focuses on issues of political-economy, policy, and market dynamics that have driven the American economy into a state of “proletarianization,” where its citizens are increasingly ruled by an oligarchy of global elites whose insatiable appetite for wealth and power is endangering the very systems of free-market capitalism and liberal democracy that this kakistocracy claims to uphold. It's an outcome that Julius Klein would refer to as “capitalism without competence and feudalism without nobility.” The second hour of today's conversation is, unsurprisingly, the most satisfying insofar as Demetri and Julius tackle the socio-political and cultural dimensions and manifestations of the problems created by the perversions of what was earlier described as the “proletarianization” or conversion of the American economy and political system into a more corrupt, upwardly sclerotic, and extractive system of governance than anything experienced in America since at least the Gilded Age. You can access the second part of this episode, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's conversation through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/15/2021

    The Lab-Leak Hypothesis & the Origin of Covid-19 | Alina Chan & Matt Ridley

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2021 66:04

    In Episode 219 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Matt Ridley and Alina Chan. Alina is a Canadian molecular biologist specializing in gene therapy and cell engineering at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard and Matt is a British science journalist who has written countless bestselling books on subjects ranging from evolution, to innovation, to genomic science. They are the co-authors of an electrifying new book titled “Viral” that grapples with the mystery of how Covid-19, a virus whose closest known relatives live in bats residing in subtropical southern China, somehow managed to begin spreading among people more than 1,500 kilometers away in the city of Wuhan, while leaving none of the expected traces that such outbreaks usually create. Instead, nearly two years into this pandemic we're presented with a trail of evidence that increasingly points towards the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the so-called “Lab Leak Hypothesis” as the most plausible source of the outbreak. This is a critically important conversation to be having and Matt and Alina have made an invaluable contribution to it by working tirelessly and at great risk to themselves and to their careers in order to bring clarity to many of the facts and much of the evidence in support of the lab leak hypothesis—a theory that was consistently attacked and discredited by various actors, both wittingly and unwittingly, in the earliest days of the pandemic. We normally release the second half of our episodes for our subscribers only, but because of how important this conversation is and because of how much Matt and Alina have sacrificed in order to educate us all on the origins of Covid-19, we thought it was only right to do as much as we can to share as much of their work as possible. If you enjoy today's episode, please take a moment to write us a review on Apple Podcasts and consider being a premium subscriber, if you haven't already. There's no commitment. You can cancel at any time and the entire library of Hidden Forces subscriber content going all the way back to Episode 1 becomes instantly available to you, including the transcripts, and rundowns, to this episode and every other episode we've ever done. You can access the second part of this episode, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's conversation through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/09/2021

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