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Joseph Wang looks back to see the way forward
In this episode, Joseph Wang and Austin Campbell join the show to discuss their overview of macro after the latest FOMC meeting, the EM-ification of the United States, and how stablecoins play into the continuation of US dollar hegemony. We also delve into support for stablecoin legislation, the case against the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & US sovereign wealth fund, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Austin: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:11) Macro & Crypto Colliding (01:09) Overview of Macro and FOMC Meeting (04:25) US EM-ification (09:39) Ledger Ad (10:23) What is Good Fiscal & Monetary Policy? (13:55) Stablecoins and US Treasury Demand (19:01) Stablecoin Legislation (23:44) Reinventing Money Market Funds (24:29) Ledger Ad (32:58) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & Sovereign Wealth Fund (36:54) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Inflation shows signs of cooling, according to this morning's CPI report. Jay Hatfield notes a "big swing" in transportation services and a still-elevated shelter number, but he doesn't think investors should be "too concerned." Joseph Wang still believes the data signifies deeper Fed interest rate cuts than previously expressed. He says he wouldn't buy equities in current market conditions.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
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In this special crossover episode with Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he's bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:26) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:03) Immigration Impact (09:32) 2025 Surprises (12:16) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (14:43) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:07) Peak Hawkishness (21:41) Long-Term Rates (23:07) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:16) Ads (26:41) Fed Surveys & Politics (28:29) The Neutral Rate (30:27) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:11) Reverse Repo (37:52) Treasury Coupon Issuance (39:38) Equities & The Dollar (43:15) Gold & Crypto (45:07) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (49:42) Main Takeaways — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he's bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:21) Immigration Impact (09:50) 2025 Surprises (12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:25) Peak Hawkishness (21:59) Long-Term Rates (23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:34) Ads (27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics (29:15) The Neutral Rate (31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:57) Reverse Repo (38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance (40:25) Equities & The Dollar (44:01) Gold & Crypto (45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (50:28) Main Takeaways __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Links & Resources Follow us on social media for updates: Instagram | YouTube Check out our recommended tool: Prop Stream Thank you for tuning in! If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, follow, and review our podcast. Don't forget to share it with friends who might find it valuable. Stay connected for more insights in our next episode!
In this electrifying episode, we dig into the controversial claim that a "Crash Up" has begun. Is renowned analyst Joseph Wang once again ahead of the curve with his bold predictions? We break down what this could mean for markets and your investments. Links & Resources Follow us on social media for updates: Instagram | YouTube Check out our recommended tool: Prop Stream Thank you for tuning in! If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, follow, and review our podcast. Don't forget to share it with friends who might find it valuable. Stay connected for more insights in our next episode!
Ever wondered how Federal Reserve policies are shaping the markets and economy? Join us as we welcome Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the Federal Reserve's open markets desk and author of "Central Banking 101." Joseph brings an unparalleled perspective to our discussion, shedding light on the Fed's increasing market interventions and its growing tendency to prioritize low unemployment over inflation control. You'll gain unique insights into the political dynamics within the Federal Reserve, including its apparent bias towards the Democratic Party and the political motivations behind calls for rate cuts.We also tackle the intricate effects of rate cuts on various sectors, such as REITs and RMBS REITs, distinguishing between cuts spurred by economic downturns and those driven by declining inflation. Joseph provides an expert analysis of the banking sector's health, especially focusing on the challenges faced by regional banks and potential risks from commercial real estate. The conversation broadens to encompass the global rate-cutting cycle, exploring the actions of other central banks like the ECB and the Bank of Canada and their implications for the Fed and global monetary policy.Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, we delve into how a potential Trump administration could influence US currency policy, particularly in terms of favoring a weaker dollar to boost exports. Joseph offers intriguing market indicators, including Taiwan's stock market and its impact on the tech sector, alongside classic Trump trades like immigration and tax cuts. We also highlight gold as an attractive investment, driven by global geopolitical tensions and US fiscal policies. This episode is packed with valuable insights on monetary policy, economic trends, and investment strategies you won't want to miss. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:
In today's episode, we delve into the potential for a July rate cut and what it could mean for the economy and the housing market. We'll analyze the latest CPI data, discuss mortgage application trends, and highlight the contrasting forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Moody's on future home prices. Additionally, I'll share my nine money rules and update you on significant moves in commercial real estate by big players like Pimco. Join me as we break down these important topics and explore the implications for investors and homeowners. Key Talking Points: [00:00] - Discussion on potential July rate cuts and recent CPI data. [01:28] - Detailed CPI data breakdown: Headline and core, month-on-month and year-on-year metrics. [03:12] - Analysis of the Fed's charter and upcoming dot plot impact. [04:40] - Concerns about a July rate cut reigniting inflation, drawing parallels to the late '70s and early '80s. [05:22] - Surge in mortgage applications due to a dip in rates: Implications for the housing market. [06:55] - Recap of my nine money rules and their importance. [08:00] - Pimco's strategic moves in commercial real estate and the impending wave of distressed properties. [10:01] - Announcement of self-management sessions with real estate experts in the school community. [11:40] - Update on VA rule changes allowing sellers to pay buyers' commissions. [12:33] - Comparison of home price forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Moody's, and my take on it. Links & Resources: One Rental at a Time School Community: https://www.onerentalatatime.com CoreLogic: https://www.corelogic.com Joseph Wang's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/josephwang Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Pimco: https://www.pimco.com Goldman Sachs: https://www.goldmansachs.com Moody's: https://www.moodys.com Closing Remark: Thanks for tuning in! If you enjoyed today's episode, please subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform. Share this podcast with friends and family who might benefit from our real estate investing tips. Leave us a review to let us know your thoughts. Your feedback helps us improve. Follow us on social media for updates and exclusive content. Keep taking action and remember, it's all about doing the work. Happy investing!
On this weeks Huddle +, Patrick welcomes back to the show, 'The FED Guy' Jospeh Wang. They discuss, FED policy, Inflation, the European election impact on the market & currencies. Check out The Fed Guy: www.fedguy.com *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
In this episode, we dive deep into the relationship between recessions and home prices, challenging the widespread belief that an economic downturn automatically leads to a housing market crash. I provide a historical analysis dating back to 1980, debunking common myths and highlighting key differences in today's economic landscape compared to past recessions. Join me as I dissect the facts, share insights from industry experts like Joseph Wang, and discuss what the future might hold for the housing market. Timeline Summary: [00:30] - Introduction to the topic: Recessions and home price crashes. [01:10] - Historical analysis: Home prices during past recessions. [02:28] - Debunking the 2008 PTSD effect: Why not every recession is the same. [04:01] - Forbearance and modern banking practices: How they're different today. [05:13] - Insights from Joseph Wang: Fed policies and their potential impact. [07:03] - Inflation concerns: Comparing today to the early '80s. [10:03] - Inventory analysis: Market trends and opportunities. [12:03] - Practical advice for investors: Tracking inventory and motivated sellers. [14:56] - Shoutout to Liz Ann Sonders: Top markets with the highest price per square foot increase. [15:16] - Special guest announcement: Greg Dickerson joins the school community. Links & Resources: One Rental at a Time - Access the 54-year spreadsheet. Joseph Wang's YouTube Channel - Weekly summaries and insights. Housing Wire - Source for historical data and market analysis. Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter - Follow for economic insights and updates. Closing Remark: Thank you for tuning in! If you found this episode insightful, please rate, follow, share, and review the podcast. Your support helps us reach more listeners and continue delivering valuable content. Stay tuned for more episodes and don't forget to join our school community for exclusive content and discussions. Happy investing!
In this episode, we explore the bold recommendation from Sean Dobson, CEO of Amherst, who suggests selling your home and renting. I delve into his rationale and critically examine the implications of his advice, especially considering Amherst's ownership of 44,000 rental homes. We'll also discuss the current state of the housing market, the benefits of fixed-rate debt, and strategies for identifying motivated sellers in both residential and commercial real estate. Join me as we break down these complex topics and uncover valuable insights for homeowners and investors alike. Key Talking Points: [00:00] - Introduction to Sean Dobson's recommendation to sell and rent. [00:30] - Overview of Amherst and its significant rental home portfolio. [01:35] - The value of 30-year fixed-rate debt and why selling it might be unwise. [02:33] - The potential for becoming an accidental landlord with low-rate mortgages. [03:34] - Critique of timing the market: Historical context and common pitfalls. [04:18] - Differentiating residential and commercial real estate trends. [05:36] - Hunting for motivated sellers: Strategies and market signals. [06:07] - Opportunities in commercial real estate: Overpaid properties and upcoming refis. [07:28] - Reflection on regrets: Insights from an oncologist about end-of-life reflections. [10:08] - Upcoming economic indicators: CPI, PPI, and consumer sentiment. Links & Resources: Amherst Residential: https://www.amherst.com One Rental at a Time School Community: https://www.onerentalatatime.com Joseph Wang's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/josephwang Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Closing Remark: Thank you for tuning in to another insightful episode of One Rental at a Time! If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform. Share this podcast with friends and family who might benefit from our real estate investing tips. Leave us a review to let us know your thoughts and follow us on social media for updates and exclusive content. Remember, it's all about doing the work. Happy investing!
This week Joseph Wang joins the show post FOMC to break down how markets are reacting to positive inflation data & Powell's press conference comments. As the U.S continues to run large fiscal deficits, Joseph outlines his thesis for why he expects stocks to continue crushing bonds in 2024 & why markets will actually crash up instead of down. Enjoy! -- Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) FOMC Meeting Takeaways (10:30) The U.S Labour Market (12:56) Mantra Ad (14:05) Stocks Will Continue To Crush Bonds In 2024 (16:43) Rate Cuts Are Coming... And It's Bullish (19:51) Gold, Commodities & Bitcoin (23:45) Crypto's Wealth Effect (27:55) Is There A Bear Case For Equities? (30:14) Permissionless Ad (30:52) Monetary Plumbing & The QT Taper (34:32) Presidential Elections & Their Impact On Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss Fed Rate Cut Timing, the Bond Market & Shelter Inflation with Charles Payne & Joseph Wang.
Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro, weighs in on why this Fed meeting matters even though it's almost a sure thing that rates are held steady. Plus, should the President have a hand in the Federal Reserve's policymaking? Wang explains what it would mean if the Fed lost its independence, and how the election factors into upcoming rate decisions. Hosted by Kyla Scanlon.
The Rebel Capitalist helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom.✅If you want to see what I'm doing with my portfolio this year, check it out here https://www.georgegammon.com/2024 ✅Come To Rebel Capitalist Live In Orlando May 31- June 2! https://rebelcapitalistlive.com/ ✅Check out my private, online investment community (Rebel Capitalist Pro) with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1!! click here https://georgegammon.com/pro ✅Rebel capitalist merchandise https://www.rebelcapitaliststore.com
Joining us today is Alan Liu, the co-founder of Persperion Diagnostics, an innovative startup based in San Diego that aims to revolutionize diabetes management with its non-invasive glucose monitoring technology. Founded in 2022 by Alan Liu and Lu Yin, the company leverages cutting-edge touch-based sweat-sensing technology to detect a wide range of biomarkers from a simple fingertip touch. This technology was developed in the nanoengineering lab of UCSD Professor Dr. Joseph Wang, with whom Liu previously worked as a research assistant. After securing a substantial $4 million in venture capital seed funding in June, Persperion is now gearing up for a series of funding rounds to scale up manufacturing and prepare for clinical trials. The company, which has recently expanded to a hybrid lab and office space in Kearny Mesa, aims to start its pilot trial in Q1 of this year and seeks FDA approval later. Liu and Yin, who also co-founded the flexible battery startup Ocella, have been recognized for their pioneering work, making the Forbes 30 Under 30 list in the Science category in 2024. As they continue to develop their diagnostic platform, Persperion Diagnostics remains focused on making health monitoring more accessible, affordable, and accurate for millions of people worldwide. ➡️ https://persperiontech.com ➡️ Follow me on Instagram: @therosspalmer ➡️ Subscribe on YouTube: @therosspalmer
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ This is a recorded version of Jack's macro panel at the 2024 Digital Asset Summit hosted by Blockworks, recorded in London on March 19, 2024. Macro analysts (and previous Forward Guidance guests) Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, and Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro (ex-Brevan Howard) share their outlook on the global economy, stocks, bonds, currencies, and Bitcoin. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph's work https://fedguy.com/ Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Julian's work https://t.co/qdroC4L86V Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Michael's work https://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Jonny's work https://super-macro.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Will Stocks Continue To Crush Bonds? (07:24) U.S. Economy Continues To Outperform Rest Of World (12:37) Financial Conditions Are Very Loose Despite Fed's Rapid Rise In Interest Rates (17:52) VanEck Ad (22:57) Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Continuing To Rise (30:17) Interest Rates And The Dollar (31:47) Views On Crypto (38:33) Concluding Prediction On Stocks Bonds And Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Liquidity levels are improving in USDs and more may be upcoming via the depletion of the ON RRP. Will the Fed move towards more benign balance sheet policies over the course of the year? And how about a potential operation "Twist"? Meanwhile, China is allowing the public deficit to grow. Is China the next positive surprise? Guest: Joseph Wang aka. The Fed Guy14 day free trial - https://stenoresearch.com/subscribe/FREE macro newsletter - https://stenoresearch.com/free/Check out
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Joseph's piece on Real Rates: https://fedguy.com/higher-real-rates-for-longer/ More about Wrightson ICAP: https://www.wrightson.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Reverse Repo Decline Driven By A) Decline In Fed's Balance Sheet And B) Increased Supply Of Treasury Bills And C) Private Repo Market Demand (05:45) The Liquidity Demands Of The Basis Trade (Long Cash Treasurys / Short Treasury Futures) Is Drawing Money Out Of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (12:40) VanEck Ad (13:22) Lou's Accurate Prediction On Why Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Would Not Be Renewed (It Wasn't) (17:10) Fed's Balance Sheet Policy: Quantitative Tightening (QT) (25:30) Summary From Jack (27:01) Money Market Data Could Indicate QT Will Continue For Longer (28:28) DAS Ad (33:14) Interest Rate Outlook On Fed Cutting Cycle (37:17) Inflation And Real Interest Rates (43:43) Potential Government Shutdown In U.S.?? (46:33) Tax Season Approaches! The Plumbing Of Refunds (49:31) Joseph's Closing Thoughts On U.S. Fiscal Situation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Martin Pelletier on Twitter https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph's latest on Cash-Futures Basis Trade: https://fedguy.com/levering-up/ Joseph's latest on CBO: https://fedguy.com/sea-change/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:25) VanEck Ad (11:10) New York Community Bank $NYCB (15:34) The Canadian Banking System (22:05) Is Tech Forming A Stock Market Bubble? (33:15) Cash-Futures Basis Trade In Treasury Market (39:41) The Rise of Structured Products In Canada (56:40) Energy Market (01:03:00) Joseph's Views On Powell's 60 Minutes Interview (01:07:40) Bank of Canada Could Cut Interest Rates By More Than The Fed Does In 2024 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ -- Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week, Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro joins the show to discuss the latest in markets after Jerome Powell's FOMC conference. -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's episode, Former Fed trader, CIO at Monetary Macro & Author Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2024. Joseph walks through his stock market "crack up boom" thesis, the rise of fiscal dominance & the path ahead for bonds as the U.S runs record high deficits. We then deep dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook as well as broader financial plumbing and how it may impact markets in the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Today's interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Disinflation Is Transitory (07:48) Record Deficits Will Fuel A Stock Market Rally In 2024 (11:34) The Fed Will Cut Rates Three Times In 2024 (16:33) Why Isn't The Fed Pushing Back Against Market Pricing? (19:22) Fading The Recessionista's (23:25) The U.S Dollar (26:52) Quantitative Tightening (35:45) The Reverse Repo (46:32) Mortgages Role In The Fed's QT (54:39) Housing (01:01:10) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Carolyn Sissoko, senior lecturer at University of the West of England, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and author at FedGuy.com, to discuss the Federal Reserve's public acknowledgement that it may cut interest rates in 2024, the collateral supply effect, and the merging of of credit allocation facilities and money markets. Filmed on December 19, 2023. Today's interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr __ Follow Carolyn Sissoko on Twitter https://twitter.com/csissoko Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph's latest, “Independent Tracks”: https://fedguy.com/independent-tracks/ Professor Sissoko's publications: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/CarolynSissoko __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Joseph's Take On The Fed's December FOMC Meeting (09:25) Does Zero Interest Rate Policy Cause Malinvestment And Misallocation of Credit? (15:02) The Rise of "Too Big To Fail" (24:32) Line Separating Bank Lending And Money Markets Has Been "Almost Completely Obliterated" (38:25) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and Stablecoins (40:48) Joseph On Why Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) Could Continue Even As It Cuts Rates (45:20) Joseph's Views On Bonds (01:02:03) The Collateral Effect (01:17:04) CLOs and Private Equity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This episode was recorded on June 3, 2022In this episode, Brad Mills interviews author and former Federal Reserve market specialist, Joseph Wang. Known for his work "Central Banking 101," Joseph offers a treasure trove of insights from his tenure at the Fed, drawing on his experiences navigating the financial landscape post the 2008 crisis.Brad and Joseph have an in-depth discussion on the world of the repo market, its challenges in 2019 when rates unexpectedly eclipsed the Federal Reserve's interest on reserves, and the implications for liquidity and bank stability. The episode delves into critical issues like the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the balance between capital and liquidity in safeguarding against bank insolvencies.Brad probes the possibility of the Federal Reserve's repo market interventions being akin to unapproved bailouts — a notion Joseph addresses by shedding light on the quality of collateral involved in these short-term lending agreements. The dialogue also ventures into the accounting aspects of bond maturities, the purchasing power of the US Treasury's looming debt, and the Federal Reserve's potential role in debt acquisition.Their exchange extends to Bitcoin's immunity to governmental control, contrasting its decentralized nature with other cryptocurrencies and what that means in an increasingly regulated environment. The episode advances through the murky waters of quantitative easing, the causality of inflation, and the contentious values underpinning the current financial system.Tune into this episode for a blend of expertise and provocative analyses, revealing the inner workings of the systems that move money globally. Timestamps[00:09:44] Keynesian vs. Austrian perspectives on sound money.[00:14:21] Doubts about banking system, learning and understanding.[00:19:48] Gold certificates allow expansion of money supply.[00:23:03] Banks took on too much risk in 2019.[00:27:26] System adapts, past battles influence future strategies.[00:35:58] Bank stocks used as collateral for lending.[00:41:52] Federal Reserve intervened in repo market, changed paradigm.[00:47:45] Federal Reserve stepped in to stabilize repo market.[00:53:39] Arbitrage involves trading based on price differences.[00:57:46] Fed tries to save system, government devalues currency.[01:04:15] Explanation of monetary transactions and balance sheets.[01:05:07] Fed moves money around, swapping one form.[01:15:05] QE raises stock and home prices by lowering interest rates.[01:17:09] Fed's $5 trillion in bonds affects rates.[01:24:34] Challenges ahead in financing US debt. Possible Fed intervention.[01:28:30] Extended conversation about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency concerns.[01:32:06] Bitcoin decentralized, resistant to government enforcement ban.Find Joseph WangJoseph Wang on TwitterFind Brad MillsBrad Mills TwitterMIM TwitterBrad Mills Facebook
每天早晨8:30 讓我們一起解讀財經時事 參加財經皓角會員 : https://yutinghao.finance 主持人：游庭皓（經濟日報專欄作家、小一輩財經人話翻譯機） 音頻收聽請在Podcast或Soundcloud搜尋『游庭皓的財經皓角』 Telegram: https://t.me/yu_finance 我的粉絲專頁:https://reurl.cc/n563rd 網站參加會員手冊 https://reurl.cc/WG7vd7 歡迎來信給小編幫您處理 jackieyutw@gmail.com """"" 打賞網址 ：https://p.ecpay.com.tw/B83478D """"" 書名：聯準會到底在做什麼？ 作者： 王造 原文作者： Joseph Wang 譯者： 唐祖蔭 出版社：商業周刊 出版日期：2023/09/14 https://reurl.cc/6Qne2r (YT抽書的朋友要公開訂閱我們財經皓角頻道唷♥️) (FB抽書的朋友要公開分享直播影片+您想要抽書留言♥️) 《早晨財經速解讀》是游庭皓的個人知識節目，針對財經時事做最新解讀，開播於2019年7月15日，每日開盤前半小時準時直播。議題從總體經濟、產業動態到投資哲學，信息量飽滿，為你顛覆直覺，清理投資誤區，用更寬廣的角度帶你一窺投資的奧秘。 免責聲明：《游庭皓的財經皓角》頻道為學習型頻道，僅用於教育與娛樂目的，無任何證券之買賣建議。任何形式的投資皆涉及風險，投資者需進行自己的研究，持盈保泰。
The FOMC is dominating the macro conversation right now. Many are wondering what the Fed is doing, when the hike cycle is going to be over, when we may see rate cuts and what could happen as we head into 2024. Joseph Wang, the CIO at Monetary Macro fund, also known as “The Fed Guy,” joins Eric Chemi. He previously worked at the Fed. Joseph will break down how the Fed really works, why he thinks the bond bear market isn't over and what he expects the Fed to do next. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKETS? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com #FED #ratecycle #JosephWang #fomc ************************ At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: https://www.wealthion.com/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1 Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040 ****************************** IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as official investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust.
Unusual Whales Pod Ep. 30: Fed FOMC Pause Continues, Treasuries, Bonds, National Deficit, and Macroeconomic OutlookThis episode of Unusual Whales Pod was recorded live on November 1st, 2023, prior to the FOMC Presser by Jerome Powell outlining the Fed's continued rate hike pause. Our panelists discuss everything from the U.S. Treasuries and Bonds to the U.S. deficit, and cover aspects of the markets we should keep an eye on moving forward.Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Lyn Alden https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactThelastbearstanding https://twitter.com/LastBearStandngBob Elliott https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Michael Green https://twitter.com/profplum99Cem Karsan https://twitter.com/jam_croissant Unusual Whales: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesDiscord: https://discord.com/invite/unusualwhalesFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/unusualwhalesInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/unusualwhales/Reddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@unusual_whalesTwitter: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesTwitch: https://www.twitch.tv/unusualwhalesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/unusualwhales/Merch: https://unusual-whales.creator-spring.com/?**Disclaimer:Any content referenced in the video or on Unusual Whales are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You can lose some or all of your investment. See terms for more information.
This episode is from another of Blockworks' shows Forward Guidance. We hope you enjoy & remember to go follow Forward Guidance: Spotify: spoti.fi/46LGuNR Apple: apple.co/3hXQu2F -- Today's interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023. -- Some of Borio's and the BIS' works mentioned in this interview: “Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf “The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf “International banking and financial market developments” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023 https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf “Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf “On money, debt, trust and central banking,” January 2019, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf “Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?” November 2021, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf “The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?” December 2012, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf __ Follow Bank For International Settlements on Twitter https://twitter.com/BIS_org Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy (09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk (12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy? (15:56) The Financial Cycle (24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes (36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening) (39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets (46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches" (50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System (56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Joseph Wang is a former senior treasury trader at the Fed who now runs Fedguy.com, a research blog on financial markets. In this interview, we discuss his experience working on the Fed's treasury trading desk, the role of central banks and how this has expanded over time, the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury, quantitative easing, deficit spending, the growing national debt, and the benefits of decentralisation. - - - - The Federal Reserve is the United States Central Bank. Established in 1913 after a series of banking panics, its primary purpose was to provide a more stable and reliable banking system by regulating financial institutions, providing banking services to the government, and promoting financial stability. However, the Fed's role has expanded over time to encompass market interventions in response to economic fluctuations and financial crises. One crucial aspect of the Fed's remit is the implementation of monetary policy. Through tools such as open market operations, reserve requirements, and interest rate adjustments, the Fed seeks to control inflation, stabilise prices, and promote maximum employment. As the economy has become more complex, so has the Fed's toolkit to address emerging challenges to include extreme actions such as becoming the lender of last resort and quantitative easing. A popular criticism is that the Fed's actions have materially affected the state's increasing and unsustainable deficit and debt growth. Whilst the Fed does not have the power to directly increase or decrease deficits, it can indirectly contribute to deficits through its monetary policy actions. Regarding the national debt, the Fed currently owns significant amounts of U.S. government bonds, resulting from its efforts to stabilise the economy during times of crisis. A more fundamental issue is the Fed's potential role as the centralised authority in the control of money. CBDCs provide for the complete digitisation of money and the disintermediation of retail banks, which would provide the Fed with even more capacity to affect monetary policy. Despite the risks to personal sovereignty, such power would be too tempting for central bankers to forgo. Essentially, decentralisation is needed to keep the Fed in check. All roads lead to Bitcoin! - Show notes: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/how-the-federal-reserve-works This episode's sponsors: Iris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Bitcasino - The Future of Gaming is here Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware wallet Wasabi Wallet - Privacy by default Unchained - Secure your bitcoin with confidence OrangePillApp - Stack Friends Who Stack Sats
“When you have more political centralised control, there's a lot more vulnerability to things like corruption and mismanagement and I think that's where we're headed; so, I'm actually quite pessimistic for the global economy for the next decade.”— Joseph WangJoseph Wang is a former senior treasury trader at the Fed who now runs Fedguy.com, a research blog on financial markets. In this interview, we discuss his experience working on the Fed's treasury trading desk, the role of central banks and how this has expanded over time, the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury, quantitative easing, deficit spending, the growing national debt, and the benefits of decentralisation.- - - - The Federal Reserve is the United States Central Bank. Established in 1913 after a series of banking panics, its primary purpose was to provide a more stable and reliable banking system by regulating financial institutions, providing banking services to the government, and promoting financial stability. However, the Fed's role has expanded over time to encompass market interventions in response to economic fluctuations and financial crises. One crucial aspect of the Fed's remit is the implementation of monetary policy. Through tools such as open market operations, reserve requirements, and interest rate adjustments, the Fed seeks to control inflation, stabilise prices, and promote maximum employment. As the economy has become more complex, so has the Fed's toolkit to address emerging challenges to include extreme actions such as becoming the lender of last resort and quantitative easing.A popular criticism is that the Fed's actions have materially affected the state's increasing and unsustainable deficit and debt growth. Whilst the Fed does not have the power to directly increase or decrease deficits, it can indirectly contribute to deficits through its monetary policy actions. Regarding the national debt, the Fed currently owns significant amounts of U.S. government bonds, resulting from its efforts to stabilise the economy during times of crisis. A more fundamental issue is the Fed's potential role as the centralised authority in the control of money. CBDCs provide for the complete digitisation of money and the disintermediation of retail banks, which would provide the Fed with even more capacity to affect monetary policy. Despite the risks to personal sovereignty, such power would be too tempting for central bankers to forgo. Essentially, decentralisation is needed to keep the Fed in check. All roads lead to Bitcoin!- - - - This episode's sponsors:Iris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Bitcasino - The Future of Gaming is hereLedger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletWasabi Wallet - Privacy by defaultUnchained - Secure your bitcoin with confidenceOrange Pill App - Stack friends who stack sats-----WBD720 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Are you ready to unravel the complexities of the financial world? This episode promises to serve you a rich feast of insights as we are joined by Daniel DiMartino Booth, a former advisor to the Federal Reserve, and Joseph Wang, an experienced trader. They lend us their expert lens to examine the Federal Reserve's influence on the bond market, the shifting structure of fixed income markets, and the implications of credit spreads. Joseph's trading anecdotes brilliantly illuminate the importance of comprehending the financial system, while Daniel's admiration for Fed chair Jay Powell validates the profound impact of regulations and ETFs on fixed income markets.We are not stopping just there! As our financial expedition continues, we delve into the potential aftereffects of the Fed's quantitative tightening strategy, and what a treasury-only portfolio might mean. Our guests expertly navigate us through the possible economic waves that a soaring dollar could trigger, particularly on emerging markets. They draw our attention towards the Fed's careful observation of markets beyond headline averages and how wealth effect dynamics, inflation, and consumer spending play crucial roles.Our conversation takes an exciting turn as we scrutinize jobless claims data, the impacts of escalating delinquencies, and the stock market. We also aim our spotlight on the global financial system, dissecting potential risks from smaller banks' loan concentration. Daniel and Joseph help us comprehend the ECB's role in providing stimulus and the repercussions of bond market and inflation on the US economy. Wrapping up our chat, we reflect on France's economic slowdown, the US fiscal policy, and the tidal shift towards increased government spending. This episode is surely an enlightening journey into the world of finance, promising to leave you with a broader understanding of these intricate topics.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Uranium Spotlight: Nuclear's Resurgence in a Clean Energy WorldA weekly podcast on uranium fuel market trends and its global energy impactListen on: Apple Podcasts SpotifyFoodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:
Today Jason's finishes his interview with the FED GUY, Joseph Wang as he gives you a peek into some of the inner workings of the Federal Reserve. You can also purchase his book Central Banking 101 HERE. Please note that the views in this book do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. And check out TheCollectiveMastermind.com. We are going to where the FEDERAL RESERVE was created- in Jekyll Island, Georgia; and you are invited! For much more awesome content, visit Jason's YouTube channel today! Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:18 New Year's resolutions and a cruise vacation 4:19 Apartment rent to keep slowing this year 5:37 Chart: National single-family rent index 6:00 Chart: Home price appreciation by tier 10:19 Chart: Year Over Year Active Inventory Markets 12:07 For more information, join the EMPOWERED INVESTOR LIVE Summit. Get your tickets NOW! Joseph Wang interview 13:22 Welcome back the Fed Guy Joseph Wang 14:16 The Fed, commercial banks and the Treasury- how they work together 15:47 When converting treasuries to cash fails 17:48 To END the Fed or not? The Fed as a product of the market forces 18:35 Central Bank Digital Currencies and social credit scores; the FED going beyond their mandate 20:56 Shadow Banking: The Primary Dealer- becoming part of the apparatus that implements monetary policy 22:48 The biggest change happening right now 26:49 The most fundamental change in how the economy is working 28:38 High inflation and high rates at the same time, what gives? 30:00 Is it bad for capital or good for labor; wages versus inflation 32:50 Automation: labor shortage possible solution and the issues that come with it Quotables: "If the recession is due to supply constraints then cutting rates doesn't actually fix anything." - Joseph Wang "The primary dealers are basically the only people the FED is willing to trade with. So they become part of the apparatus that implements monetary policy." - Joseph Wang Mentioned: Central Banking 101 Fedguy.com TheCollectiveMastermind.com Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com
Today, Jason touches briefly on the housing inventory market. In this day and age, the government essentially have made building entry-level homes illegal, given the rules and regulations coupled with supply chain and labor issues! Watch more content from Jason on his YouTube Channel today! Central banking is magic. With a few words, the Fed can lift the stock market out of desperation and catapult it towards euphoric highs. With a few keystrokes, the Fed can conjure up trillions of dollars and fund virtually unlimited Federal spending. And with a few poor decisions, the Fed can plunge the entire world into a recession. The Federal Reserve is one of the most powerful institutions in the world, and also one of the most difficult to understand. Joseph Wang spent five years studying the monetary system as a trader on the Desk. From that vantage point, Joseph saw firsthand how the Fed operates and how the financial system really works. His conversation with Jason aims to educate and demystify. He explains how money is created, how the global dollar system is structured, and how it all fits into the broader financial system. But to have a broader feel of his experience as a FED trader, make sure to get his book, Central Banking 101 today. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 2:03 Housing inventory shortage 6:11 “It's an amazing time to be alive!” 7:39 A tectonic shift- find out more at the Empowered Investor LIVE event Joseph Wang interview 9:12 Welcome back Joseph; is the Fed the biggest investor? 10:14 The FED is not trying to make money; it influences economic conditions 11:27 A little peek behind the “Desk” 13:59 Acting as the eyes and ears of the Fed and having a relationship with big banks 15:16 What don't we know? accessing and interpreting private data 17:37 The REPO market 19:59 The implications on the REPO market in crisis 22:41 Types of money, money creators and the shadow banks 24:28 Quantitative easing; money printing versus hyperinflation 26:08 Creating loans, creating money 27:28 MMT- correct in theory; dishonest in implementation 30:07 An awesome economic ecosystem 32:33 Before the Reagan Tax Act 33:30 The Fed, commercial banks and the Treasury- how they work together Mentioned: Central Banking 101 by Joseph Wang Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com
Maggie Lake is joined by former senior Fed trader and principal of FedGuy.com, Joseph Wang, to discuss whether the top is in for equities this year, the likelihood of a recession, and where 10-year Treasury yields could go next. You can find more of Joseph's work here: https://fedguy.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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On today's episode of On The Margin we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow On The Margin on Twitter https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Use codePODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Keith Weinhold and Ken McElroy discuss the impact of rising mortgage rates on the commercial real estate market. They talk about the foreclosure of a Houston real estate investment firm, and the need for syndicators to anticipate changes in interest rates and have capital reserves in place. The speakers predict that high-rise commercial office buildings will be the first domino to fall in the commercial real estate market. They also discuss the potential fallout from the expiration of commercial debt and the upcoming Limitless Expo event in Scottsdale, Arizona. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/452 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Attend the Limitless event, June 15th-17th: LimitlessExpo.com $22M Office Building to Convert to Multifamily: https://www.loopnet.com/learn/deal-of-the-month-22m-office-teardown-makes-way-for-multifamily/2115617288/ Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete transcript: Keith Weinhold (00:00:02) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold last year's spiking of the Fed funds rate caused banks to fail this year and last year's. Doubling of mortgage rates is causing commercial real estate to fail this year. Why is it happening? How bad is it with commercial real estate and how bad will it get? That's the topic of today's conversation with Ken McElroy on Get Rich Education. Speaker 1 (00:00:27) - Taxes are your biggest expense. The best way to reduce your burden is real estate. Increase your income with amazing returns and reduce your taxable income with real estate write-offs. As an employee with a high salary, you are devastated by taxes. Lighten your tax burden. With real estate incentives. You can offset your income from a W2 job and from capital gains Freedom. Family Investments is the experience partner you've been looking for. The Real Estate Insider Fund is that vehicle, this fund investing real estate projects that make an impact. And you can join with as little as $50,000. Insiders get preferred returns of 10 to 12%. This means you get paid first. Insiders enjoy cash on a quarterly basis and the tax benefits are life changing. Join the Freedom Family and become a real estate insider. Start on your path to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 6 6 8 66. This is not a solicitation and is for accredited investors only. Please text family to 6 6 8 66 for complete details. Speaker 2 (00:01:36) - You are listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education. Keith Weinhold (00:01:59) - Welcome to GRE from Montreal, Quebec to Monterey, California across North America and spanning 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Wein. Hold in your listening to Get Rich Education. Real estate investing is our major here. Minors are in both wealth mindset and the economics of real estate. That's what the matriculated graduates with here at G R E. You can think of an interest rate as how much it costs you to use money and to help you understand the preeminence of the cost of money. Let's you and I step back together for a second. If you go buy apples at the supermarket and Apple cost increase affects you. If you go buy a gallon of paint at Home Depot, a paint cost increase affects you. And if you go buy an acre of raw land, a land cost increase affects you. But rising interest rates mean that there was an increase in your money cost and you use money to buy those very apples paint or raw land. Speaker 1 (00:03:04) - And now you begin to realize how interest rates touch and percolate into every single thing that you buy as a consumer or as an investor. And we know that interest rates are not currently high. Historically, yeah, you heard that right now that's not much consolation to those that are in trouble. But the Fed funds rate is about 5% and all year here the mortgage rate on an only occupied home has stayed between a range of six and 7%. Actually, mortgage rates are a little low. Their 50 year average is about seven and a half percent. Well, so then what's the problem? Well, the problem is not what are indeed historically normal rates. It's that rates rose so fast last year. You look at a graph and they climbed a wall. In fact, it's unprecedented, at least in you and i's lifetime to have them rise that fast. Just last year alone, mortgage rates spiked from 3% up to 7%. Economists estimate a 56% chance that they indeed are going to raise the Fed funds rate again. Yep. There is another meeting. Just next week, let's learn about commercial real estate deals blowing up with Ken McElroy. Speaker 1 (00:04:28) - I'd like to welcome back longtime real estate investor influencer and multi-time bestselling real estate author and G R E podcast guest regular. Really? Hey, it's the return of Ken McElroy. How's it going Ken? Speaker 3 (00:04:40) - Great Keith, how are you? It's good chief. Terrific. Great to see you in Arizona too recently. Speaker 1 (00:04:45) - Yeah, that's right. We were just together in Arizona a few weeks ago, both there and everywhere across the United States, we know that residential loans are for the one to four unit space where those properties typically have long-term fixed interest rate debt, 15 to 30 years. The five plus unit department space is tied to commercial lending even though it's residential property and they often have variable rate debt for a shorter term. And commercial loans are where the trouble is in this world of higher mortgage rates. And a few months ago it made a lot of news in our world, Ken, that a Houston real estate investment firm that was at one time one of the city's largest landlords with $500 million worth of multifamily. They got foreclosed on and launched 3,200 apartments at the time. And one major reason were these floating interest rates that rose so much and rents couldn't keep up proportionately and more deals are going belly up like that. So Ken, tell us about what you are seeing out there now in regard to rising mortgage rates affecting the commercial lending market. Speaker 3 (00:05:45) - Well, it's true. Obviously we all know that the Fed raise rates 10 times, so they were obviously fighting inflation. So if you bid around this business enough to know, know, you should have known that the Fed usually increases rates when inflation goes high. And so it is one of the tools that they use to kind of tampering 'em down inflation because that, no, the Fed is more concerned about inflation than interest rates because you obviously inflation affects everyone. So yeah, if you're in the real estate space, you might feel like you're being picked on. But the truth is, it's not surprising to anybody who's been around that they use this interest rate increases as a mechanism to lower inflation or the masses. So some of those mistakes that were made, I think it was Arbor, you have to go back to the experience of the syndicator. They elected not to buy interest rate caps and have other kinds of protections around those assets. And unfortunately, you know, some of those investors that invested in those assets, those were things that maybe weren't very clear to them. Uh, we're not exactly sure of all the details, but what's gonna happen next Keith, is we're going to start to see there's gonna be a big division of the experience versus the inexperience, I would guess Speaker 1 (00:07:08) - A divergency, yes, of course that Fed has that dual mandate of full employment and stable prices since they're still doing pretty well on the employment. They want to get stable prices and the way to get a handle on that is to continue to raise rates. And when the Fed raise rates essentially from zero to five in just about a year, things are going to break. And we're talking about right now what is breaking first in the real estate space. And you mentioned a syndicator, when one buys an apartment building, oftentimes they get what's called a value add project, this renovation stage. And during that time they often have this variable interest rate debt. So often we are talking about apartment syndicators here, sponsors that put the deal together and what the syndicator essentially does is buy the apartment, renovate it, raise the rent, and then they cash it out to investors by either selling it or refinancing it at a higher value. And right here, these are the people that we're talking about that are in trouble due to their rates being jacked up. Speaker 3 (00:08:07) - That's exactly right. I think you always have to anticipate a change in interest rates, whether they're up or they're down. And I think a lot of times people just always believe that they would stay as is. And I think that was obviously a flaw in their thinking and a flaw in their strategy. The other one of course is capital reserves. You know, cash, you have to have all these things in place. It looked to me from the article, the articles and the, and the different pictures and and things I've seen that they may have run into the problems on the management side as well. And you know, so there's a number of issues that I could see potentially that affected them. And I actually am hearing others kind of stories around this Keith as well. The first domino really to fall I think is gonna be some of these highrise commercial office buildings. Speaker 3 (00:09:01) - That would be my guess because in a very different scenario where a lot of the folks that own those and maybe were in those, a lot of those tenants are deciding that they don't want their people to come back. Maybe they're doing a work from home model or the people that work for them decide that they don't wanna be back or whatever scenarios there are. There's definitely a lot of vacancies. I was looking today, you know, we're looking at pretty high uh, vacancies in la we're looking at very high vacancies in San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, New York. When I'm talking about high, I'm talking about unprecedented. We're talking about 30, 40% in many cases and in some cases even more so we know that if you have a vacancy that high, you're definitely not paying the debt. And so there's all kinds of these big landlords that are actually defaulting on their loans of those commercial office buildings. Speaker 1 (00:10:01) - Now we're talking about vacancy in the office space there and we think really in our residential world, of course people think of you as a multi-family guy, but you also are in, you know, self stores in some other spaces. But we just think about the crux of the problem and how that's centered on residential. Maybe you can just talk to us, Ken, about exactly the details of the problem or maybe you have an example from a case study and just what that, that structure looks like for those in trouble. Speaker 3 (00:10:29) - Why would I be concerned about it? Is, is probably a really good question. And the reason is is because don't forget, we all go to banks for stuff. So if it's an auto loan, a residential loan, a commercial loan or a business loan, it's still a financial institution and it's all connected even though we might only be going for one piece of that. And so as the commercial paper starts to default and starts to make its way into these large regional, smaller community banks, then what's going to happen is the underwriting criteria is going, they're gonna pull back because they don't care. They just know that they're taking water in the boat and they're in trouble. So, so that's why I look at it, you know, obviously, but you have to look at the real estate, the landscape completely, and you realize that, you know, while you might be just doing one piece of that, there are lot and these banks are connected out in the community in many, many, many ways, right? Speaker 1 (00:11:30) - Yeah, that's it right there. Maybe people, some don't think about just a complete seizure and a reluctance to want to extend loans at all if they have enough on their books that are in trouble, Speaker 3 (00:11:40) - Right? So that's why I'm looking at it from the multi-family standpoint as well, because we're already seeing underwriting criteria or in other words, banks are saying we're gonna give you less 50% loan to value, 55% loan to value. So why would that be? The reason is is that you know, they're looking at their, just like you would be and and all your personal assets that you have, stocks, bonds, gold real estate, whatever it is, business, each one is performing differently. A bank looks at it exactly the same way. So if something's happening over here that's negative, it's affecting over here and it's shining a light on the whole thing. And so we're already seeing a tougher underwriting. And what that means is that means that you're gonna have to come up with more money for down payments. And of course the banks are gonna be very cautious about any kind of lending if it's on a single family, if it's on a multi-family, if it's on a residential or retail or industrial or office buildings or self storage or whatever it might be. It we're all connected. And so that's what I think is gonna be hitting us is we're gonna be in a debt and a credit crisis here in the next 18 months. Speaker 1 (00:12:54) - So there could be downward pressure on loan to value ratios, your bank wanting you to put more skin in the game so that they are less exposed and you are more exposed there. So we're talking about maybe new purchases oftentimes in that discussion. What about those that have a loan? Maybe the interest rate has gone higher, they want to refinance it. You know, a lot of times we talk about cash out refinances is something that we want to do when equity accumulates, but could this be an environment for cash in refinances with a lot of these commercial loans? Speaker 3 (00:13:29) - Yeah, so we've done a couple cash in personally. Yeah. So what does that mean entirely? So what happens is, well let's say you had a load at three and now of course they're over five. Well our rate caps hit us at five, but we still don't forget, we went from three to five. So that little bit of piece was expensive for us even though we had a cap though, recap is simply just an insurance policy on the original purchase, that's all. So we're like okay, that cost us about 20 grand a month on this one property as an example, Speaker 1 (00:13:59) - The rate cap below Speaker 3 (00:14:00) - The rate cap below the rate cap purchase was less, but the three to 5% that increase in the mortgage payment was about 20,000 a month. Okay, so call it 250,000 for the year for one asset. So you're like, uh oh. I went from having great cash flow to having a lot less cash flow because my rate went out now it hit the cap. Well I was protected but it still went up 2%. So we started to take a look at what would it cost for us to fix this rate and it was uh, about a million bucks for a cash in. So we did it, we said let's do a million dollar cash in, fix the rate because I'm also afraid of future rate increases. So that $1 million that we put in to fix the rate at 5.2%, we know it's a four year payback or 250,000 times four is a four year payback. Speaker 3 (00:14:52) - So it's a four year loan. But really what we're doing is we're hedging the entire time and of course we have that cashflow coming out each and every month. And the beauty of that E as you know, is what you do is you hedge the upside. You can always re refinance on the doubt. And all I was trying to do was protect that thing from when the recap expired, what's usually caps for two or three years, let's say. I didn't wanna be in a position where it was, you know, six or seven or something. So that's why we did it. We were just protecting against the future. And these are the kinds of things that you can do if you've been in the room before, you know what I mean? You, if you have the experience and and you see these kinds of things happening, you could take action to help yourself and help your investors. And that is clear that the arbor had not set up their loans that way. They had not set up their cash that way and they perhaps weren't looking at some of those things critically like that. Speaker 1 (00:15:49) - Anna and I were each active real estate investors through the global financial crisis. So we know a crisis well, we see what each crisis is a little different when we talk about hedging ourselves against the crisis. Can you talk about rate caps, which is basically this insurance that one can buy to put a cap on how high their rates can go. If you go ahead and buy a property to 3% interest rate and you have a 2% rate cap, that means your cap cannot exceed 5%. So therefore if rates go up to 7%, you're kind of in the money. Speaker 3 (00:16:19) - That's exactly right. And so it's clear to me that they didn't buy those cap, by the way, they're not the only one. There are others. And so if you shine the light on the multifamily industry, there's a fair amount of people that didn't do that either, not just them. And also there's other people that don't have the cash perhaps like the million dollars that we used to do a cash in. And so they're going out to their investors to try to preserve the asset. The crazy thing about it, as you know is we're still very under supply and on a housing stamp. Yeah, the fundamentals of the apartments are actually good though we're still seeing a a little bit moderate red growth and we're hitting theis and the occupancies are good. The apartment industry is not in any kind of crisis. The one thing that's changed is the cost of debt has got up a lot. Speaker 1 (00:17:14) - Why don't we talk about that some more and just how bad is it going to get Ken, maybe through the perspective of just how much commercial debt is about to expire. Speaker 3 (00:17:24) - If you google this, you'll see that there's about 1.4 trillion expiring by the end of 2024. So that's a lot . And so what has to happen is, Keith, let's say you all bought something. Well actually there's already examples. If you Google, there's an office tower that was appraised and valued at 250,000,002 years ago and it just traded at 70 as an example. Wow. So there's a big, big haircut there, right? So first of all, all the equity on that original deal gone wipe down and then the that 70, all that does is cover part of probably the debt. So some bank somewhere took it in the shorts, you know, on that deal. And so that is a good segue to say what happens is anything that was purchased, let's say in uh, call it one to three years ago, is subject to massive valuation change. Speaker 3 (00:18:23) - And if they have a situation where they're trying to do a cash out refi and they're not going to be able to, if they have a situation where they're going to sell, they're not going to be able to because the value of that asset is probably 20 to 30% less than it was just two years ago. So what's going to happen is if they can wait, they might be able to wait it out. If rates go down like everybody's hoping it will, or cap rates go back down like everybody's hoping it will, then you're going to be fine. The issue is going to be the maturities and when they hit, Speaker 1 (00:19:01) - There's a 20 to 30% loss in value as we know at a 75% loan to value loan. Yes, that is a complete wipe out of the equity. Ken, when we think this through, of course apartments have debt that someone is holding onto and apartments also have equity that someone else is holding onto and equity could be held by. It's not just investors in a syndication, it's also a pension fund or a family office. And if these go under, we have to think about those ramifications of course, but we think about equity that's held by LPs limited partners, which are those individuals that invest in a syndication. What do you think that LPs should do? What kind of situation are they in? I mean are syndicators communicating with their LPs and letting them know things like, hey, there just isn't gonna be a distribution this quarter and I don't know about next quarter either or, how's that communication been? Speaker 3 (00:19:52) - So it's hard to know. Obviously if you read the article about Arbor, there was not much and a lot of the investors were surprised. It's interesting though, cuz if you really dial into it, there's no way that they were making distributions for a long time as the things were defaulting. So there must have not been distributions on those assets for some time. That would be obviously a red flag. So I think that some syndicators are probably communicating very, very well. But in this particular case, that wasn't happening because of what some of the people were saying in the article that had invested with them. Speaker 1 (00:20:31) - And when you're talking about Arbor, you're talking about that group in Houston that I brought yeah, up earlier. That's really become sort of like the poster child for what's coming can often that might make one think like the LP that invests in someone else's syndication that might make a savvy investor wonder, well gosh, I wonder if there's going to be a contagion effect. Even if a syndicator shows me a deal and that one particular deal looks really good, does that syndicator have other deals behind him that are blowing up and could affect this good deal that looks good in front of me right now. So what are your thoughts about any sort of contagion effect that way? Are you seeing any of that out there? Speaker 3 (00:21:08) - It's certainly possible. I know that a lot of it's gonna be based around the debt itself. So if somebody got a deal like we did like two years ago or one year ago that put fixed rate debt on it, not a problem. So you have to take a look at the maturity of the debt. There's a lot of people that have bought properties that where they assumed alone in the commercial space you can assume something, people are still doing deals, you know, so if you could step into somebody else's loan at three, three and a half percent, let's say you're not gonna have a default issue, you're not gonna have a debt issue where the debt's gonna go up while you bought something, it's fixed. And that was kind of the whole point. As you know, I've been telling people to get in fixed straight debt for two years. If you go back and look at my videos, I probably said it a hundred times, getting fixed straight debt, getting fixed straight debt, getting fixed straight debt because you have to know what your debt payment is month to month to month for a long period of time. You don't want a fluctuating variable number. And so the people who didn't do that, the people that in my opinion were inexperienced and didn't by caps, this is the result of that. Speaker 1 (00:22:23) - We've been talking a lot about problems here. Of course the flip side of any problem is an opportunity. You are an excellent opportunist. You just talked about situations where apartment values could be down 20 or 30%. So are you seeing opportunity, especially with respect to apartment buildings and what's going on coming ahead? Speaker 3 (00:22:43) - We looked at four deals on Tuesday, we've been in opera on one of 'em. So to your point, if somebody's sitting on some assets and they need cash for ones that aren't doing well, for example, they might sell a couple of the good assets. And what's a good asset? A good asset would be something that's highly occupied and is stable and has fixed rate debt and it's something that you can easily underwrite, easily buy, and you know it's gonna be like clipping a coupon moving forward. That would be what I would call a good asset purchase. And those are definitely hitting the market. So I mean, you think about your own portfolio, you know, at any given time you're looking at the winners and you're looking at the losers, sometimes you have to sell a winner to pay for some of the losers. So we're starting to see some good assets hit the market. Speaker 3 (00:23:32) - That might be great. They help somebody that's um, in a situation that might need cash for something else. So that is exactly what does happen. That is what's happening. So we're gonna be all over those issues and try to snap up some of these really, really nice assets. Another really good opportunity is going to be on brand new class A apartments that are just now being completed. So you know, as you know on a new construction deal, you do not get fixed straight debt because there's no asset. It doesn't exist. So you have a land, you have to build it until it's considered in service, which means you have all the occupancy certificates and it's blessed and the city says, okay, it's all ready to move it. That's in service. And until that point you can't put fixed rate debt on anything. So there's going to be this many opportunities on assets that are under construction that are in trouble because of these high interest rates. People that come in with all cash, for example, are going to be able to buy some of those properties. What I would guess at under replacement costs, it's going be a very exciting time moving forward for buying perhaps real trophy assets or assets up that people have already done a lot of work on or under what they're worth. Speaker 1 (00:24:51) - That could be a good niche to exploit. You're listening to get Resu education. We're talking with Ken McElroy about trouble in the commercial lending market and how that affects real estate. Warren, we come back. I'm your host Keith WeHo with J W B Real Estate Capital. Jacksonville Real Estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor. Since 2013, JWB is ready to help your money, make money, and to make it easy for everyday investors, get started@jwbrealestate.com slash gre. That's jwb real estate.com/gre. GRE listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS four 2056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plexes. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. They'll even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. start@ridgelendinggroup.com. This is peak prosperity's. Chris Martinson, listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Wein old and don't quit your daydream. Speaker 1 (00:26:33) - Welcome back to Get Education. We're talking with Ken McElroy, longtime influencer and very successful author, A great influencer in the real estate space. And can you hit mentioned some other sectors outside of the residential and the apartment space earlier, and we look at potential problems or opportunities outside of residential and we think about what's happening to office space. You touched on that earlier, that's probably about the worst real estate sector I can imagine in their high vacancy rates, hotels and retail and warehouses, which actually think about one sector as doing pretty good since the pandemic and online shopping really lifted the warehouse sector. But do you really have any other thoughts about those sectors, how commercial loans affect them or any good opportunities in those outside of residential? Speaker 3 (00:27:24) - As everyone knows, you know, when you buy a home, they look at your FCO score, right? They look at your credit and they look at you or me as the person paying that home as they should. When you move to the commercial side, they look to the asset. So they're very, very different. One's an individual. Another one is the actual asset. So as these asset values go down, as interest rates go up, I think that anything that's going to need any kind of a loan and the next year or two is going to have a problem from an asset value standpoint. Because what we were all used to in the last 10 years were these value add. So you'd buy something and then you would improve it and it would be worth more money at the credit and debt markets were stable, you know, so you could go, uh, you had a very calculated model where you can go put new debt on there and scoop that out and do a cash out refi that's gone right now because the values are down and of course the cash out refi option is off the table. Speaker 3 (00:28:30) - So th those are the real problems that people face moving forward. So that could be all kinds of things. It could be retail, it could be industrial, it could be multi-family cuz everything is impacted even though we've had high cracy and red growth in some of those areas. If you're a seller that has a 3% loan and you're trying to sell it to somebody like us who's a buyer, we're probably at six or seven. We're looking at cash flow very differently than they are when our debt costs are almost double. So we're not gonna be able to pay that price. And so that's what the debt, rising debt costs have done. If the income, any expenses are the same, but the debt costs are double, then we as buyers can't afford to pay that. So therefore the prices that we're we can afford to pay are gonna be a lot less. And so that's actually what's happening Speaker 1 (00:29:26) - And what we think of as perhaps ground zero for problems in the real estate market. I think office first comes to mind, you've talked about office vacancy rates in many American cities being really high earlier, it was a particularly noteworthy stat that was released not long ago that in New York City they have 26 Empire State buildings worth of empty office space. So we talk about all this open office space with more of the work from anywhere crowd and this dearth of residential housing. You know, can you experience, do you learn about very many office buildings being viable for tear down and conversion into residential? Or is that not feasible very Speaker 3 (00:30:07) - Often? Yeah, so that's the million dollar question. What are we gonna do with these big, big office buildings? And think about this, Keith, let's say it's a 50 story building, which is a very common building all over the place and it's got 20 or 30% occupancy. My guess is, you know, what do you do? Like you have to wait until it's a hundred percent vacant, obviously before you can even do something. So what's going to happen is the banks are actually gonna be taking these back, the banks are gonna be managing these and they're gonna have to figure that out. And the only way to take down an office building is if it's a hundred percent vacant. And even then it might not be worth it because let's don't forget, you step into the shoes on day one of the property taxes of the utilities of the insurance, regardless if it's full or not in order to maintain it. Speaker 3 (00:30:59) - So there's an operating cost that exists whether there are people in it or not. And so you have to be careful that you're not catching a falling knife. You know, like, I mean if somebody said to me, I'll give you this vacant office building or a dollar, I probably wouldn't take it because unless I had some kind of a solution for the, uh, on the income side. So I'm not saying I wouldn't, but you have to have a solution on the income side to cover your operating expenses. Otherwise you're just gonna be writing checks just like the person before you Speaker 1 (00:31:34) - That is so well explained on the difficulty of making a conversion feasible from office to residential. Well, if you're like me, you read a lot of Ken McElroy's books like the ABCs of Property Management, the ABCs of Real Estate Investing. Can I read the Return to Orchard Canyon on a beach in India a little over three years ago? Actually, I love that more recent book from you and you have a great live in-person event coming up really soon where the audience can come to see you at a bunch of other speakers. It's a fantastic event. It's a second year, you're doing it, it comes up really soon here in Scottsdale. Tell us about it. Speaker 3 (00:32:15) - Thank you. It's, I cannot be more excited, especially what's happening right now. It's called Limitless and uh, it's at limitless expo.com. So it's just limitless expo.com. But kicking off the very first day is Joseph Wang, who wrote a book called Central Banking 1 0 1 and he is good. He used to work in New York for the Fed and is going to talk specifically about what's the Fed going to do in the second half of the year in 2024 based on all the things that he did on the open markets desk for the Fed. So that's gonna be very exciting. We've got Chris Martinson as well talking right after him, got kiosaki. We have a whole bunch of people around entrepreneurship and um, kind of side hustle stuff just to try to figure out what the heck is happening and what could we be doing to protect ourself moving forward. Speaker 3 (00:33:11) - So this is really, this year in particular is a not to miss year because these are things that all of us are trying to figure out. I don't have a crystal ball just like anyone does, and I'm studying like crazy to try to figure out what's happening next. We've got 45 speakers all coming to try to help us understand what we can do next. Chris boss, who's, uh, wrote the book, never Split the Difference. If you guys haven't read that book, you need to read that book. He's the hostage negotiator in the world and he works for the FBI and Harvard. And, and his talk is going to be how to negotiate during troubled times because these are going to be real things, Keith, real things that are happening. You know, when there's a debt maturity or a loan coming up or you have problems with your limited partners or, or whatever it might be, this is the room you wanna be and that's the talk you want to hear. Chris is gonna be there, I'm gonna do a podcast with him. He is gonna do a book signing, so it's really fun. It's gonna be Thursday, uh, the 15th, the 16th or the 17th of June. And uh, it's right in Scottdale, Arizona. Speaker 1 (00:34:21) - Janice Prager will be there as well. And yeah, it seems like you just keep adding speakers. Okay, I wanna talk to you. Last month it was 40 speakers, now it's 45. So you, you have a buffet that you can sample there as an audience? Speaker 3 (00:34:34) - We do. I can't wait to meet Dennis Prager. I, I've been to his compasses in la I, I'm a big fan of, you know, his messaging and, and what he, he has a billion downloads last year, A billion with a B. That's incredible. So he's getting to be there. I just think it's like the who's who, right? It's tweet thought Speaker 1 (00:34:52) - 100%. You can get started@limitlessexpo.com. Can I and our audience have benefited from your knowledge for years? Thanks so much for coming back onto the show. Speaker 3 (00:35:02) - Yeah, my pleasure. Always great to be on Speaker 1 (00:35:10) - Most of those speakers at the Limitless event. Were guests here on G R E, so you'll probably find a lot of residents there, including Chris Voss who was the FBI's lead hostage negotiator. He was on the show with us here twice you'll remember. And yeah, you'll remember that pretty fondly because it was entertaining the first time Chris was here back in episode 331, how the World's Best negotiator and I, Chris Voss did a mock face off in negotiating the purchase of a fourplex building. But getting back to imploding apartment syndications, they aren't just blowing up deals and blowing up investors, but also blowing up banks when the borrower cannot repay the loan. And banks have to take back apartment buildings and office buildings unlike, which is actually pretty unusual in a way that they need to take back apartment buildings. I mean, everyone understands how the work from anywhere movement created, the office space decline, but there is quite a demand for all residential types, single family homes and condos and trailers and apartments. Speaker 1 (00:36:17) - But it's those resetting rates that blow up apartments despite the demand for people to wanna live there. So what this does, it makes banks more conservative with lower rent values being delivered, lower rent to value ratios also coming on the way. I would expect more of that ratcheting down. And for more people wanting to refi from a variable rate to a fixed rate, you know those syndicators they have got to put cash in in order to meet that lower loan to value ceiling will well capitalize syndicators. They can do that and others can't. Syndicators might very well be asking for capital calls from their investors then for their investors to help fund that cash in refi to keep those deals alive. The timeline for when you should expect a lot of this activity are from the peak 2021 and early 2022 deals that had short-term debt on them. Speaker 1 (00:37:17) - They are going to face resetting rates late this year and into 2024. You probably noticed that just beyond the halfway point in the chat with Ken. I pivoted from talking about problems to discussing opportunity and the opportunity being that others might sell a good apartment deal because they need the cash to get out of that deal so that they can go take those funds and perform a cash in refi and shore up one of their other deals and get that other deal into fixed rate debt. Most modern offices, you know, they simply cannot be adapted over to residential uses due to their wide and deep floor plates that restrict natural lighting to only the perimeters. And because of the overhauls required to run mechanical and electrical and plumbing to individual residential units in the rare office building where conversions are possible, that sort of thing is wildly encouraged by everyone, developers and brokers and all kinds of governmental bodies. Speaker 1 (00:38:19) - In fact, there was recently a sale of a 150,000 square foot office building in Orange, California oranges between Anaheim and Santa Ana. It's sold for 22 and a half million dollars and it's planning to be converted from office to residential. But yeah, multi-family conversions like that, they just aren't common. And the full story about that from LoopNet is in the show notes for you today. We've been discussing the difference between one to four unit properties and five plus unit multi-family apartments today. The difference in lending is really what makes all the difference. So those larger apartments bought with variable rate debt, say one to three years ago, they are problematic where the one to four unit space instead stays shielded with long-term fixed interest rate debt. Next week here on the show, you're gonna meet our new investment coach at GRE Marketplace. You have heard this person on the show before. I'll introduce you next week. Yes, we're adding a second one to keep up with demand for you. Until then, I'm your host Keith Wein. Hold, don't quit, it's your daydream. Speaker 4 (00:39:31) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests on their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively. Speaker 1 (00:39:59) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.
Former Fed insider Joseph Wang joins me today to discuss the current banking crisis and how the Fed is handling it. We discuss inflation, the reverse repo facility, fiscal policy, and more. Find more from Joseph Wang: Twitter: @FedGuy12 https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Youtube: Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Rebecca Hotsko talks with Joseph Wang about the ongoing banking crisis, including the reasons behind the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, the possibility of further contagion in the industry, and other related topics.Joseph is the CIO at Monetary Macro, and previously a senior trader on the Fed's trading desk. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:00:00 - Intro.02:50 - An update on the current banking crisis. 06:31 - What caused Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse to fail?15:19 - What warning signs can investors look for to determine a bank is not properly managing their risks? 23:13 - Joseph's thoughts on whether this contagion is likely to spread and cause other banks to fail. 34:15 - His main take-aways from the recent Fed meeting. 46:52 - How increased regulations could impact bank's profitability going forward. 48:19 - What's driving the trend of declining deposits?51:31 - Joseph's thoughts on what the future of banking looks like, and whether we could see a bankless future or not. 57:03 - Does a “higher for longer” interest rate environment pose a major risk to the banking sector?*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out Joseph's book.Check out Joseph's Website.Related Episode: Listen to MI190: Central Banking 101 w/ Joseph Wang, or watch the video.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Rebecca's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Get the professional support you need to prepare for your future career with UBC Sauder School of Business.Apply for the Employee Retention Credit easily, no matter how busy you are, with Innovation Refunds.What does happen when money and big feelings mix? Tune in to find out on the new podcast, Open Money, presented by Servus Credit Union.Partner with a specialized agency focused on making insurance as easy as possible for real estate investors. Take advantage of monthly reporting, monthly billing, and coverage for all phases of occupancy with National Real Estate Insurance Group.Universal life insurance can offer protection and long-term tax-advantaged savings for your future goals & milestones. Get a universal life policy today through a simple, easy, and 100% digital purchase journey with Everly.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | InstagramEmail: Rebecca@theinvestorspodcast.comConnect with Joseph: Book | Website | Twitter See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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Part of the government’s rescue actions amid the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank was the establishment of a new Fed emergency lending program for banks in crisis. According to analyst Joseph Wang, the program could incentivize riskier behavior at banks. Credit Suisse, one of the world’s largest banks, has been extended a lifeline by the Swiss central bank. And, Biden administration has proposed stricter standards to regulate so-called “forever chemicals” in drinking water.
Part of the government’s rescue actions amid the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank was the establishment of a new Fed emergency lending program for banks in crisis. According to analyst Joseph Wang, the program could incentivize riskier behavior at banks. Credit Suisse, one of the world’s largest banks, has been extended a lifeline by the Swiss central bank. And, Biden administration has proposed stricter standards to regulate so-called “forever chemicals” in drinking water.
Buy my stuff Come to rebel capitalist live at https://rebelcapitalistlive.comCheck out my private, online investment community (Rebel Capitalist Pro) with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1!! click here https://georgegammon.com/proRebel capitalist merchandise https://www.rebelcapitaliststore.com
What's the trajectory of inflation in 2023? How about the likelihood of a severe recession? There's no shortage of uncertainty as we look past the holidays, but Joseph Wang, Andy Constan, and James Helliwell have some thoughts on what's to come. Don't miss this discussion of how to navigate the markets in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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