Forward Guidance

In this episode, Bob Elliott joins the show to discuss the reversal of U.S Dollar capital flows after the announcement of Trump's tariffs. We deep dive into the U.S balance of payments problem, the changing economic order, why the U.S Dollar continues to get sold & how to structure a portfolio in this environment. Enjoy! -- Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx -- Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv -- At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ -- Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) The Changing U.S Economic Order (07:56) The Reversal Of U.S Dollar Capital Flows (12:38) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (13:47) Why Did The U.S Outperform Pre-2025? (18:05) Trump Tariffs = A Weaker Dollar, Assets & Growth (23:45) Is The U.S In A Balance Of Payments Crisis? (28:41) What Is The Bond Market Signaling? (32:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (33:44) The End Of U.S Exceptionalism (41:10) A New Regime For Markets? (43:35) The U.S Economic Supply Shock (47:03) Structuring Alpha vs Beta Portfolios -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we're seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Beware the Doom Loop (13:21) Ondo Ad (13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization? (16:15) Dollar & Bonds (23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop (25:06) Real Rates & Inflation (31:48) Ondo Ad (32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored (38:13) Trading The Current Regime (47:24) Gold Market (49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets (55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth? (59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem (09:30) What Will the Fed Do? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Arthur Hayes joins the show to discuss Trump's slew of concessions sending markets higher, the evolving US-China strategy, and Bitcoin decoupling from US assets as tariffs reduce the US capital account surplus. We also delve into Treasury buybacks, the Fed & SLR exemption, potential catalysts that would trigger QE, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:47) Trump Agenda & Concessions (07:06) Tariffs & US-China Strategy (13:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (14:50) Bitcoin Decoupling & Changing Trade Flows (19:33) Fiscal Levers & Global Liquidity (25:26) Treasury Buybacks (30:49) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (32:04) Powell & The Fed (34:43) SLR & Big Banks (37:30) What Would Trigger QE? (41:55) Structural Bid In Gold __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss Powell's hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hLnf2szLRxPcUkIJwPyj34UbhHadON69/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:45) Recent Fed Remarks (06:26) Macro View and Tariff Trades (16:27) Ondo Ad (16:52) Market Positioning and Growth Slowdown (27:30) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (35:30) Ondo Ad (36:01) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (Con't) (36:59) Equities & Government Spending (41:44) Bitcoin: The Trade After the Trade — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Arty & Gamma from the Market Radar team join the show to discuss their macro models and the importance of systematic trading, how they're thinking about global markets today, and how deficits and tariffs are complicating the Fed's cutting plans. We also delve into lessons for discretionary traders, what Market Radar wants to see to turn risk-on, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Market Radar Models (04:12) Systematic vs Discretionary Macro (07:23) Market Radar Systematic Approach (14:31) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (15:42) Lessons for Discretionary Traders (20:58) Weaknesses of Systematic Macro (24:06) Argument Against Shorting (27:57) Current Market Outlook (34:13) Current Market Outlook (Con't) (34:22) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (37:00) The Fed & Deficits (46:42) Conditions to Turn Risk-On (49:07) Catching Tops & Bottoms (52:09) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mel Mattison joins the show to discuss why he thinks we're on the cusp of another inflationary bubble, the danger of growing entitlement obligations, and what more yield curve distortions mean for markets. We also delve into how gold could be on track for $50,000/oz, how all this will impact the FX market, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mel: https://x.com/MelMattison1 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Mel's Spot-on Market Predictions (06:30) Macro Drivers of the Market Downturn (09:04) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (13:36) Ondo Ad (14:01) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (Con't) (15:39) The Anti-Dollar Trade (23:28) Social Security and Long-Term Economic Outlook (28:47) Trump Admin's Grand Agenda (34:37) Federal Reserve and Inflation (35:54) Ondo Ad (36:24) Bond Market and Yield Curve Distortion (39:32) Yield Curve Distortions & Inflation (52:52) Currencies and Emerging Markets (57:57) Gold & Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we join the Empire podcast to discuss where markets go next from here. After the market sold off in reaction to the Trump tariffs, we deep dive into the bull vs bear case in 2025, Trump's end game, building the perfect portfolio, Coinbase vs Robinhood, is Bitcoin really a safe haven asset & more. Enjoy! — Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel -- Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Turning Bearish In 2025 (10:490 Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (12:00) How Trump Spooked Markets (15:46) The Trump & Bessent Playbook (19:13) The Bull vs Bear Case In 2025 (27:57) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (29:07) How To Position Under Trump 2.0 (32:46) Will The Fed Step In? (36:46) What We Learnt From SVB's Collapse (39:43) What's Trump's End Game (44:31) Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven? (47:24) Building A Crypto Portfolio (01:01:01) Long vs Short Vol (01:04:04) Coinbase & Crypto Equities — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before even thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss how we managed this insane week in markets, China and the evolving tariff strategy, and what's going on with the bond market. We also delve into our expectations from the Fed, Secretary Bessent orchestrating policy behind the scenes, Bitcoin hitting ATHs in 2025, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cAWJKncxGgliZa54aTq08eCgn9Q-P8x1/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) PMLS IV (02:02) Navigating This Insane Market (07:32) Key Market Drivers (12:22) Ondo Ad (12:48) China & Tariffs (16:31) US Spending Problem (20:33) Bond Market (24:12) The Fed & Inflation (29:40) Powell, Bessent & Fiscal (32:39) Ondo Ad (33:10) Navigating A Volatile Market (38:55) Secretary Bessent Running Point (42:50) Alternative Trade Restructuring Strategies (48:59) Unpacking the Bond Market Put (52:47) BTC ATHs in 2025 (56:02) Market Tailwinds — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Darius Dale of 42Macro joins the show to discuss Trump transitioning the US economy to a new paradigm, the potential for a recession and its impact on markets, and the threat of a debt refinancing air pocket. We also delve into why the Fed needs to transition to QE, how to approach portfolio allocation and risk management, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Darius: https://x.com/DariusDale42 Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:06) Key Market Narratives (04:03) Trump's Economic Vision (13:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (14:39) Trump's Economic Vision (Con't) (16:02) Technical vs. Actual Recession (20:02) Credit Cycle and Market Positioning (25:13) Market Pricing for Recession (30:15) Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts (32:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (33:54) Federal Reserve's Mandates and QE (37:26) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing (43:50) Portfolio Construction and Risk Management (47:34) KISS Portfolio System (52:29) Managing Different Opinions & Systematic Investing — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Tony Greer and Jared Dillian from Macro Dirt join the roundup to discuss the fallout of Trump's tariffs, what markets we're eyeing during this meltdown, and how to manage risk as a trader. We also delve into commodities, tax cuts, Bitcoin's resilience, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Timestamps: (00:00) Forward Guidance x Macro Dirt (01:32) Unpacking Trump's Tariffs & Market Reaction (09:56) Commodity Markets (15:04) Federal Reserve and Economic Data (24:27) Market Volatility and Bear Market Rallies (25:57) Risk Management Strategies for Traders (30:00) Gold Miners and Commodity Markets (33:25) Tax Cuts and Tariff Implications (37:43) Bitcoin's Resilience (42:53) Bond Price Action (44:53) Weekend Plans — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Howell joins the show to discuss the Fed & Treasury's hidden stimulus tapering off, why we need more liquidity in the financial system to refinance debts, and why the Fed's QE & duration goals are unrealistic. We also delve into the dislocation between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, what China needs to do to escape its debt deflation, global liquidity's correlation to Bitcoin's price, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Michael: https://x.com/crossbordercap Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:06) Deep Dive into Bank Reserves (03:53) Fed/Treasury Pump and Dump (09:51) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing (16:05) Ledger Ad (16:49) Bank Reserves & Liquidity-to-Debt Ratio (20:19) Post-GFC Financial System (23:46) Repo Market Tensions (35:01) Ledger Ad (35:46) The Fed's Duration Dump and Debt Refinancing (39:25) Yield Curve Suppression and Inflation Rates (44:11) Credit Markets and Risk Appetite (50:47) China's Economic Policy and Gold Strategy (01:00:52) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity (01:07:59) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, James Seyffart, Jeff Park, Robert Leshner, Ambre Soubrian, and John Mullin sit down at DAS to discuss tokenizing real world assets, how tokenization brings liquidity to assets similar to ETFs, and the opportunities around tokenized private credit, data, and more. We also delve into the next wave of institutional adoption, competing with the TradFi behemoths, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow James: https://x.com/JSeyff Follow Jeff: https://x.com/dgt10011 Follow Robert: https://x.com/rleshner Follow Ambre: https://x.com/ambresoub?lang=en Follow John: https://x.com/jp_mullin888 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:33 Tokenizing Real World Assets 07:45 ETFs and Tokenization  14:16 Biggest Tokenization Opportunities 17:11 Tokenizing Data 20:55 Bringing the World On-Chain 24:35 Regulatory Expectations 26:47 The Next Wave of Institutional Adoption 31:59 European Market 33:16 Competing with TradFi 36:20 Institutional Adoption and Future Outlook __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Le Shrub joins the show to discuss the end of American exceptionalism, overexposure to Mag7 and the US dollar, and European allocators moving away from the United States. We also delve into the era of geographic diversification, the detox period in the US to lower the 10-year and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Le Shrub: https://x.com/agnostoxxx Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:02) The End of American Exceptionalism (03:28) Trump Policies and European Response (08:45) China's DeepSeek Moment (13:00) Ledger Ad (13:45) US vs. Europe (22:52) The Role of Hedge Funds and Pension Funds (32:53) Ledger Ad (33:37) The Role of Hedge Funds and Pension Funds (Con't) (35:51) US Market Flexibility vs. European Rigidity (37:07) Risks and Opportunities in Europe (44:51) Trading the US Detox Period (50:26) Bond Market vs Fiscal Policies (58:09) Final Thoughts & Main Takeaways __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang and Austin Campbell join the show to discuss their overview of macro after the latest FOMC meeting, the EM-ification of the United States, and how stablecoins play into the continuation of US dollar hegemony. We also delve into support for stablecoin legislation, the case against the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & US sovereign wealth fund, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Austin: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:11) Macro & Crypto Colliding (01:09) Overview of Macro and FOMC Meeting (04:25) US EM-ification (09:39) Ledger Ad (10:23) What is Good Fiscal & Monetary Policy? (13:55) Stablecoins and US Treasury Demand (19:01) Stablecoin Legislation (23:44) Reinventing Money Market Funds (24:29) Ledger Ad (32:58) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & Sovereign Wealth Fund (36:54) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonah and Avi from 1000x join the show to discuss Bitcoin vs altcoin inflows, the Trump impact on markets, and the bull case for Bitcoin. We also delve into global liquidity, how to position for 2025, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz   Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx  — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125  — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv   — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:30 BTC vs Alt Inflows 08:46 The Trump Impact On Markets 16:14 Why Have Markets Sold Off? 20:14 The Bull Case For Bitcoin 23:09 Global Liquidity 26:13 How To Position In 2025? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss takeaways from the FOMC meeting and SEP, the balance of Treasury and fiscal policy, and how a strategic Bitcoin reserve and stablecoins play into the United States' goals. We also delve into the US sovereign wealth fund, our highest conviction trades, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) FOMC Meeting Insights (05:46) Treasury and Fiscal Policy (10:26) Global Economic Dynamics (20:06) Digital Assets and Crypto Market (24:48) US Sovereign Wealth Fund (30:20) Digital Asset Big Picture (34:01) Highest Conviction Trades — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss his Fed & QT expectations, his outlook for inflation, and the four ways the government can solve its debt problem. We also delve into stablecoins buying US debt, Bitcoin's potential as a neutral reserve asset for global trade, the sputnik moment in Europe, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mohamed El-Erian: https://x.com/elerianm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Expectations for the Fed (02:47) Inflation Expectations (09:38) Ledger Ad (10:25) Tariffs & Growth (13:20) Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Policies (22:31) Stablecoins and Digital Assets (25:12) Ledger Ad (28:31) Bitcoin as a Neutral Reserve Asset (33:00) Europe's Sputnik Moment (37:39) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss his bullish 2025 outlook for Bitcoin, why the US government needs stablecoins, and what's next for the broader crypto industry. We also delve into how bullish institutions are compared to retail, Bitcoin's correlation to gold, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Matt: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) Macro & Crypto (04:38) Global Fiscal Impulse (06:18) The US Needs Stablecoins (09:30) US Embrace of Bitcoin (12:54) What's Next for the Industry (15:17) Institutions are Bullish! (16:40) Fragmentation of ETF vs On-chain Assets (20:28) Bitcoin's Correlation to Gold (21:38) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the reversal of US exceptionalism, and Trump's bold tariff bet potentially backfiring. We also delve into how we're thinking about yields, whether 60/40 is compelling right now, why we're in a crypto bear market, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e0GanjFY1lh2TKOFL7QQwGi6KY9nWhwl/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) Upcoming Digital Asset Summit (02:16) CPI Takeaways (05:51) Reversal of US Exceptionalism (08:45) Ledger Ad (09:34) Recession vs Growth Scare (14:11) Trump's Bold Tariff Game (20:09) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (24:36) Ledger Ad (25:21) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (Con't) (31:11) It's a Bear Market (32:36) Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis (34:26) Bond Market & Yields (39:11) 60/40 Portfolio (42:34) Hedging Strategies (45:08) Crypto Market Prospects — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Vincent Deluard joins the show to discuss his on-the-money inflation calls and future outlook, the consequences of Trump's tariff flip-flopping, and the buyers of US duration. We also delve into the impact of DOGE, the Trump Admin's Treasury market goals, the surge in foreign yields, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent Deluard: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Inflation Predictions and Seasonal Adjustments (05:50) Stagflation Concerns and Economic Slowdown (07:33) State-Level Spending and Fiscal Policy (17:42) Tariffs & the Art of the Deal (19:25) Economic Noise vs Signal (23:36) Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy (25:36) DAS Promo (26:13) Bond Market and Liquidity (33:23) Target Date Funds (36:17) Trump Administration Goals (51:06) Surge in Foreign Yields (59:22) Market Predictions (01:03:36) Learn More About Vincent __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the Trump trade shakeout, whether fear and volatility are presenting great buying opportunities, and the bond market after February's NFP. We also delve into the outlook for the oil market, the subsectors Tony's watching, destructive Bitcoin thinking and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j8QLpaGApqV5sOpojjcRKCilxnOcrF7M/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:43) Bitcoin and Crypto Market (07:17) Equities and Recession Narratives (14:14) Ledger Ad (14:59) European Market Outlook (18:59) Thoughts on Buying the Dip (27:32) Ledger Ad (28:18) Bond Market and NFP (32:28) Oil Market Outlook (37:51) Equity Subsectors (40:10) Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment (43:52) Crypto Market Advice (48:45) Sectors that Will Lead Us Higher (51:37) Maintaining Emotional Composure in Trading (54:15) Learn More About Tony & Collab Plans — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss the February jobs report, tariffs & imports front-running, and the inflation outlook, including the growing risk of stagflation. We also delve into the outlook for Europe, Japan, and China, Bitcoin and digital assets, and more. Enjoy! — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG200 FOR $200 OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ Follow Mohamed: https://x.com/elerianm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:27) Job Report & Labor Market (05:45) US Growth & Stagflation Risk (09:41) Tariffs & Imports (11:19) Inflation Outlook & Oil (15:48) Fiscal Outlook (19:32) DAS Promo (20:14) Fed & Number of Cuts in 2025 (22:57) Goods, Services, & Shelter Inflation (25:51) Europe, Japan, & China (32:14) Bitcoin & Digital Assets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jeff deGraaf joins the show to discuss the current market regime and why he thinks a recession is unlikely, how he is thinking about the different S&P sectors, and how foreign markets like Europe and China compare to the US. We also delve into the outlook for yields and monetary policy, credit spreads, gold, Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jeff deGraaf: https://x.com/RenMacLLC Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:09) Market Cycle Clock Explained (06:09) Deciphering the Market Regime (10:13) Sector Performance and Predictions (11:01) Ledger Ad (11:46) Sector Performance and Predictions (Con't) (19:04) Outlook for European and Chinese Markets (24:30) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (32:48) Ledger Ad (33:33) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (Con't) (34:35) Credit Spreads and Market Sentiment (37:08) Gold and Bitcoin (41:27) Highest Conviction Bet for 2025 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss why markets lead the economy and a drawdown will trigger a recession, the possibility of stagflation & repercussions of low interest rates, and the impact of Trump's political agenda on markets and the economy. We also delve into the outlook for oil and gold, market skew, OpEx-driven drawdowns, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW Supply Shock YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupplyShockBW Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F8U5kLU2L_bITYG3CM6dn8e7X897-CDT/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro Overview (05:21) Recession Predictions (07:28) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (10:42) Skale Ad (11:04) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (Con't) (14:21) Trump, Populism, & Economic Policy Outlook (24:35) Historical Comparisons (31:50) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (33:32) Skale Ad (34:03) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (Con't) (39:10) Skew Dynamics and Volatility (46:01) Portfolio Allocation Strategies (49:51) Oil and Gold Market Insights (54:23) Final Thoughts OpEx Crumbs — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0 (10:01) Skale Ad (10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio (17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies (25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (34:51) Skale Ad (35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't) (38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries (44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates (52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts (01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment (01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent's remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes (06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (16:20) Skale Ad (16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) (20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective (22:41) Skale Ad (23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT (27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth (29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies (32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx (33:43) Yen & DAX (38:09) Crypto Market Update __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Benn Eifert joins the show to discuss derivative & volatility strategies, the biggest derivatives misconceptions, and flaws with Stephen Miran's tariff arguments. We also delve into volatility risk under the Trump administration, how to think about VIX percentage moves, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Benn Eifert: https://x.com/bennpeifert Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:32) Understanding Volatility-Focused Hedge Funds (04:12) Tools and Strategies in Volatility Trading (11:21) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (19:03) Skale Ad (19:27) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (Con't) (27:15) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (32:06) Skale Ad (32:36) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (Con't) (37:09) Options Trading (41:07) Implied Probabilities and Market Misconceptions (44:17) The Reality of Options Pricing Models (47:06) Impact of Derivatives on the Market (57:47) Navigating Volatility in the Trump Era (01:01:01) Debating the Merits of Tariffs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the latest CPI data, how the Trump administration will balance economic vs market success, and the constant economic headfakes. We also delve into how the government kicks the can without QE, MicroStrategy holding up Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kJjbC4s7DKMR3nU0_6C242oEhrfYH67O/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Analyzing the Latest CPI Data (10:56) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (16:53) Skale Ad (17:15) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (Con't) (29:34) Skale Ad (30:04) Roundup Continues (32:51) Liquidity Concerns (34:49) The SLR Exemption Debate (42:59) Crypto, Bitcoin Strength, & Michael Saylor's Influence (48:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andreas Steno Larsen joins the show to discuss the outlook for liquidity, the uptick in the manufacturing and credit cycle, and expectations around inflation. We also delve into Powell's QE comments, idiosyncratic drivers of gold, and much more. Enjoy! Follow Andreas Steno Larsen: https://x.com/AndreasSteno Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Current Macro Backdrop and Market Sentiment (01:48) Liquidity Backdrop and Federal Reserve Policies (04:33) Private Sector Liquidity and Credit Creation (10:21) Treasury General Account and Debt Ceiling (17:30) Skale Ad (17:54) Future Liquidity Measures and Market Implications (21:06) Private Credit and Economic Cycle (26:55) Meta's Client Base and Market Power (27:44) Russell Index and Wage Growth Insights (29:42) Inflation and CPI Analysis (33:17) Skale Ad (33:46) Global Tariff Impacts and Dollar Outlook (36:26) European Market Performance (42:05) Gold Market Dynamics (48:22) Bond Yields and Truflation Measure (51:19) Learn More About Andreas and his Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the possibility of the market discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE success, the market implications of the Treasury QRA, and whether the manufacturing uptick is tariff front-running or the beginning of a new boom. We also delve into the state of the crypto market, MicroStrategy's earnings, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19hLvwH8eVffhQ5-C97EM1pNqfxXRwYWz/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:02) Upcoming DAS 2025 (03:05) Tariff Delays (04:41) Bitcoin and Crypto (10:54) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (12:01) Liquidity Outlook and Dollar Strength (17:02) Market Discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE (20:32) Treasury Issuance and Policy Changes (28:06) Growth & Liquidity (29:02) Bond Yields and Growth Expectations (30:51) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (32:06) Construction and Manufacturing (33:57) Government vs. Private Sector (36:14) Stock Market and Investment Sentiment (40:44) MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Investments (43:49) Evaluating Government's Role in Investments (47:54) Upcoming Jobs Report __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth joins the show to discuss recent tariff headlines, the state of the US labor market, and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on inflation. We also delve into the complexities of implementing tariffs and the economic policies of the Trump administration, the influence of government stimulus on job creation, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://x.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Impact of Tariffs on the Economy (07:21) US Labor Market Concerns (09:23) Gig Economy and Unemployment (12:59) State and Federal Job Market Dynamics (16:23) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (17:07) Interview Continues (22:45) Inflation and the Fed's Mandate (27:50) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (29:04) Interview Continues (32:23) Manufacturing Sector and Economic Outlook (35:28) Business Investment and Recession Indicators (39:40) Federal Reserve's Internal Fragmentation (48:33) Learn More About Danielle's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss crypto's liquidation event over the weekend and how to trade the upcoming week. We deep dive into the weak performance of altcoins, Bitcoin's role in a multipolar world, shorting in this market environment & more. Enjoy! -- Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://blckwrks.co/3WADHnL Apple: https://blckwrks.co/4aEt5u0 -- Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh -- Kraken OTC unlocks premium, personalized services for high-net worth individuals and institutional clients to execute large orders. Trade over chat or access our self-service automated trading feature to receive executable quotes in seconds. Get 24/7 access to private and secure trading services and deep liquidity for competitive execution. Get in touch today: kraken.com/blockworks Availability of products may vary by jurisdiction. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers (excluding WA, NY and ME) through Payward Interactive, Inc. -- Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Empire podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world's crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now at Ledger.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:57) Carnage In Crypto (04:21) Shorting This Market (13:57) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger) (15:00) When To Buy This Market? (19:29) WIF (23:48) Privacy Coins (27:26) What's Next For Markets? (39:05) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger) (40:44) Bitcoin In A Multipolar World (50:16) The AI Trade -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed

This week we discuss the Fed meeting, the impact of Trump's back & forth economic policies, and the outlook for bitcoin and alts. We also delve into the bull case for Lyft, what the totality of economic data says about the economy, and much more. Enjoy!— Follow Andrew: https://x.com/_Andrew_Stein Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp— Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oVXtaPmwC592uvnClK9JA3I8uVSzf6BD/view?usp=drive_link— Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125— Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york— SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:58) Lyft Investment Thesis (03:12) Valuation Comparison and Market Dynamics (04:20) Free Cash Flow and Buyback Potential (05:17) Stock Dilution and Future Prospects (07:18) Short Interest and Acquisition Rumors (08:55) Short Interest and Market Sentiment (12:09) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (13:16) Fed Meeting Insights and Market Reactions (17:08) Macro Trends and Economic Outlook (23:54) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (25:09) Roundup Continues (26:09) Trump's Economic Policies and Market Impact (30:10) Tariff Tensions: US-Canada Trade War (31:14) Canadian Political Shake-Up (31:52) Market Movements and Sector Rotations (32:35) AI's Impact on the Market (34:23) Small Caps vs. NASDAQ: Investment Strategies (36:18) Trump's Tariff Tactics (36:46) Economic Growth and Treasury Policies (46:06) Bitcoin and Crypto Market (48:03) Looking Ahead: Market Predictions (54:10) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the market implications of the latest DeepSeek innovation, the evolving AI geopolitical game theory, and the winners and losers of the AI race. We also delve into the tension between AI productivity and employment, a framework for viewing the different AI models, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) DeepSeek's Revolutionary AI Model (04:43) Implications for GPU Demand and Training Costs (07:48) Geopolitical Tensions and AI Development (16:04) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (17:10) Future of AI and Technological Adoption (26:56) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (28:11) Winners and Losers in the AI Market (29:18) Energy Consumption and AI (31:27) The Future of AI Models (33:15) AI's Impact on Employment and Economy (36:14) The Reality of AI Advancements (43:46) Economic Models and AI (49:46) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the impact of Trump and his executive orders, the outlook for inflation, and the yield curve steepening. We also delve into warning signals for equities, CEO mentions of economic slowdown, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EK4VxLf1UrpTCmKGgBVE0PeIxr3ek4f-/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Introduction and Guest Introduction (01:20) Market Overview and Trump's Influence (02:16) Fed's Interest Rate Strategy (04:38) Executive Orders and Market Reactions (14:55) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (16:01) Roundup Continues (18:53) Inflation and Economic Indicators (24:09) Challenging Market Assumptions (24:34) Trump's Influence on Market Sentiment (25:13) Inflation and Energy Prices (27:09) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (28:26) FOMC Voting Members Rotation (29:18) Analyzing the Yield Curve (33:04) Market Reactions and Predictions (39:11) Economic Slowdown and Recession Risks (48:04) Final Thoughts and Market Outlook __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Brent Donnelly joins the show to discuss his tariff expectations, how that will impact the currency market, and the framework he uses for trading FX. We also delve into carry trades, China and the yuan, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Brent Donnelly: https://x.com/donnelly_brent Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Make FX Great Again (01:51) Tariff Expectations (07:52) Inflation, Yields, & The Dollar (13:30) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (14:39) The Fed Reaction Function (17:27) Equity Valuations (19:23) FX Framework (28:02) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (29:19) Carry Trades (34:32) BOJ & Market Surprises (42:17) Canada & CAD/USD (47:21) China & Yuan (53:40) Long-Term Dollar View (56:55) Learn More About Brent's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss what the latest CPI data means for markets, whether we're in the early stages of the credit cycle, and trading Inauguration day. We also delve into the crypto reserve debate, the potential BOJ rate hike, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UR_BWMbyzFgxqrCEZ6DjhGK36TDJQEjX/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:44) CPI & Inflation (09:03) Yields, Positioning, & Market Whipsaw (12:27) Growth Debate (22:01) Ads (23:16) Equity Contra-Indicators (27:54) Inauguration Day: Buy Or Sell The News? (31:14) Crypto Reserve Debate (35:11) Bonds Recycling Into Other Assets (37:05) Fiat Debasement & Trump (39:23) Japan & BOJ Rate Hike (45:20) Nasdaq Vs Small Caps __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Pies joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2025, his view of the housing market, and why he thinks inflation fears are overblown. We also delve into equity valuations, the long bond trade, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Pies: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) 2025 Outlook (05:50) Economic Tensions & The Bond Market (11:21) Fed Terminal Rate & Restrictiveness (16:29) Housing Market & Employment (23:43) Impact Of LA Fires (26:48) Ads (28:45) December SEP (32:25) Rate Cut Expectations (34:56) Inflation Overview (39:50) Debating Case For Sticky Inflation (43:12) Equity Valuations (50:19) Growth Vs Value (52:59) Long Bond Trade (56:23) Commodities Outlook (57:41) Learn More About Warren's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the looming growth scare, the dollar wrecking ball driving a global margin call, and global yields nearing an inflection point. We also delve into the housing affordability crisis, the public spending problem, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vUv3VzZIBynaGgOynsWw6iCbWicPhH8x/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:55) December Jobs Report (06:16) Other Labor Market Data (07:50) Is The Cutting Cycle Over? (11:24) DAS 2025 (14:34) Economic Slowdown In 2025? (20:57) Global Margin Call (27:10) Dollar Dilemma (29:58) Global Bond Yields (33:20) Yield Curve Dynamics (35:22) Trifecta Of Tightening (37:25) Crypto Politics (39:16) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (40:05) Ads (42:03) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (Con't) (45:24) Trump Administration & Uncertainty Hysteria (49:12) NFP Prediction (49:52) TLT & Positioning (52:13) Housing Affordability Crisis (57:05) Yield Solutions (59:59) 2-Year Trade (01:01:12) Bitcoin & The Inauguration (01:04:22) Public Spending Problem (01:11:15) Decentralization Of Everything (01:12:35) Killing The Four Year Cycle Narrative __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joe McCann joins the show to discuss why he's tactically bearish, the US dollar's implications for risk assets, and his crypto shopping list. We also delve into bottom signals, the outlook for 2025, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Joe McCann: https://x.com/joemccann Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:54 Macro & Crypto Overview 10:01 Implications Of Hawkish Fed 13:37 Inauguration & The US Dollar 18:43 Ads 20:41 Crypto Market Outlook 24:39 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 27:36 Crypto Shopping List 33:02 Bottom Signals 36:53 2025 Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonny Matthews joins the show to discuss Fed policy and its impact on yields, US productivity, and resilience in the labor market. We also delve into the Trump Administration's potential impact on markets, the outlook for US equities, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jonny Matthews: https://x.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://super-macro.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:11) No Recession Call (04:04) Fed Meeting (06:43) Fed Policy & Era Of Higher Rates (10:27) US Vs Global Productivity (14:27) Global Growth Outlook (17:12) Inflation Overview (22:35) Income & Consumption Disparities (25:36) Impact Of Fed Policy (29:20) Ads (30:33) Labor Market Overview (35:42) Trump's Potential Immigration Policy (38:12) Fading DOGE, Deregulation, & Tariffs (40:25) SOFR, Term Premium, & Central Bank Policy (47:42) Risk Assets & US Equities (50:52) Fed Gilt Crisis Moment? (52:33) Alternative Assets (55:05) Euro & US Dollar (57:10) Learn More About Jonny's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, David Cervantes and DCP join the show to discuss the FOMC post-mortem, the similarities to the 90s business cycle, and managing emotions in markets. We also reflect on the COVID crash, dig into expectations for 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow David Cervantes: https://x.com/EconstratPB David's Substack: https://substack.com/@pinebrookcap Follow DCP: https://x.com/Dcpcooks Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:12) Donnie's Background (08:00) David's Trading Framework (09:08) FOMC Post-Mortem (19:19) Fed Guidance & Market Surprises (21:49) DCP's Edge (23:55) New Government Regime (24:49) Reflecting On Trades (26:28) Similarities To The 90s (30:45) Ads (31:58) Interview Continues (33:11) So You Want To Be A Trader? (35:05) We're Mid-Cycle, Not Late-Cycle (37:05) Managing Emotions (40:43) Trading Wisdom (44:52) Reflecting On The COVID Crash (51:55) Trading Insights (53:53) Trading Bonds Vs ES (59:16) 2025 Expectations (01:05:15) Trump & The Deficit (01:07:08) Closing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this special crossover episode with On the Margin, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) Macro Outlook (07:14) Philosophical Vibe Shift (12:39) Financial Nihilism (16:40) Unpacking The Next Administration (20:11) Misaligned Incentives (23:23) Ads (25:24) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (38:15) BSR & The US Dollar (47:06) Crypto Market Outlook (50:04) Crypto Product Market Fit (55:18) Fundamentals Bearish? (57:07) Learn More About Travis' Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today's economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing (06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over? (12:01) Trump Policy Impact (14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike (20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook (22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation (27:43) VIX & Market Positioning (31:46) China Risk (33:42) Ads (35:36) Systematic Volatility (37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus (39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities (43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path (46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks (51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending (52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook (54:58) Bessent Economic Plan (57:15) 1998 Framework (59:55) Productive Capacity Boom (01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he's bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:21) Immigration Impact (09:50) 2025 Surprises (12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:25) Peak Hawkishness (21:59) Long-Term Rates (23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:34) Ads (27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics (29:15) The Neutral Rate (31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:57) Reverse Repo (38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance (40:25) Equities & The Dollar (44:01) Gold & Crypto (45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (50:28) Main Takeaways __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the small cap trade, the upcoming Fed decision, and whether inflation risks are overblown. We also delve into China's balance sheet recession, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy, housing affordability, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qTKN9-iNXNqFBgZSx03BFmi24BiaCeQv/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:31) Small Business Optimism & Trump Trades (07:58) Mag7 Blow Off Top? (09:42) Unwind In Momentum Factor (11:18) China Balance Sheet Recession (13:34) Small Caps, Liquidity, & The Dollar (15:30) Dovish Fed (16:51) Labor Market & Claims (21:38) Fed Policy & Global Easing (26:00) Rate Steepening (27:13) Ads (29:15) Trump Peace Dividend (32:51) Inflation & CPI (36:22) Continuing Goldilocks (39:52) Bitcoin (43:50) MicroStrategy & Convert Financing (50:53) Vol Controllers (53:48) Geopolitics (55:23) Cash Bubble (57:07) New Credit Cycle (59:17) Housing Affordability __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Warren's Macro Overview (06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate (14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation (21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation (22:54) Ads (25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative (27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing (28:27) Taxes & Government Spending (31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms (34:29) The K-Shaped Economy (37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles (39:05) Politics & The Oil Market (41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff (56:38) Does The Deficit Matter? (58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration (01:01:14) The Bid For Duration (01:04:57) Warren's Trading __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the November jobs report, the Fed's cutting path, and the goldilocks scenario for 2025. We also delve into the different R* models, MicroStrategy, the Milken moment for crypto, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TxUrZZsIWtXdqbDS-DDJL7EduaP_pdpE/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Post-Thanksgiving Catch Up (03:33) November Non-Farm Payrolls (08:31) Economic Slowdown or Stability? (10:20) Debating The Fed's Cutting Path (16:51) Hot Economy Vs Growth Scare (24:24) Macro Analysis & Shorting Oil (30:35) Ads (32:38) We Are In Goldilocks (36:29) Stocks Vs Commodities (38:12) Inflation Turning Point (39:40) Different R* Models (46:07) History Of Junk Bonds (48:11) Milken Moment For Crypto (52:11) Monetizing Volatility (53:26) Bitcoin & Evolving Options Market (56:40) MicroStrategy Risks (01:03:23) Enhancing Yield With Volatility (01:06:13) Debating Bitcoin's Future — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Dan Tapiero joins the show to discuss why he's unbelievably bullish on the macro, his introduction to Bitcoin & blockchain, and the US dollar. We also delve into the regulatory changes he's most excited for, the generational shift upon us, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Dan Tapiero: https://x.com/DTAPCAP Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:22) Dan's Background (08:10) Introduction To Bitcoin & Crypto (16:48) Bitcoin, Sovereigns, & Regulation (20:42) Most Exciting Regulatory Changes (23:19) MicroStrategy's Bold Play (25:14) Ads (26:58) Macro Overview (33:01) Unbelievably Bullish (38:17) Generational Shift (41:07) Keep A Long-Term View __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Kao joins the show to discuss why the Fed rate cuts were a mistake, the impact of the dollar wrecking ball, and whether an inflation resurgence is possible. We also delve into the December Fed decision, the oil market, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Michael Kao: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Powell's Policy Mistake (10:02) Why The Fed Cut 50 Bps (14:04) Reason For Economic Resurgence (17:56) The Dollar & Fiscal Red Bull (26:24) Ads (28:26) Inflationary Concerns Maxed Out? (34:49) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (44:29) December Fed Decision (47:14) The Oil Market (52:01) Peace Dividend __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss how to think about managing risk, whether inflation fears are overpriced, and embracing the market rotation. We also delve into the shift in global collateral, the power of volatility, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_GFJHScbL7EHAXDmO9Xy-QFt8fgNWGP1/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:14) MicroStrategy/Bitcoin Craze (06:26) Risk Management Strategies (17:30) Are Inflation Fears Overpriced? (25:48) Ads (27:32) Volatility Seasonality (30:11) The Bullish Market Rotation (40:35) Shift In Global Collateral (52:21) Volatility Is Vitality (56:36) Cyclicality, Liquidity, & Debasement __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.