Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Paul Eitelman, Global Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, to unpack their 2026 outlook and the idea of a “Great Inflection Point” for markets and the economy. Paul explains why the U.S. economy may be shifting from resilience to reacceleration, how artificial intelligence is moving from hype to measurable returns, and why market leadership could finally broaden beyond the Magnificent Seven. The conversation blends macroeconomic analysis, behavioral finance, and real-world portfolio implications, offering investors a framework for thinking about growth, risk, and diversification as we head into 2026.Main topics covered• The cycle, valuation, and sentiment framework and how it shapes investment decisions• Why economic growth may reaccelerate in 2026 after navigating policy headwinds• Accelerating AI adoption and what early signs of ROI mean for productivity and profits• The J-curve of new technologies and where AI may sit today• Capital spending, leverage, and profitability risks among hyperscalers and large tech firms• Energy demand, labor market impacts, and other societal risks tied to AI• Tariffs, immigration, and uncertainty as fading or manageable economic headwinds• Financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation as emerging tailwinds• The gap between hard economic data and weak consumer sentiment• Why recession forecasts have been wrong and how to think about recession risk going forward• Inflation dynamics, the Federal Reserve's priorities, and the outlook for rates• The case for market broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven• Global diversification, small caps, international equities, and emerging markets• Behavioral finance, investor sentiment, and staying invested through volatility• Portfolio construction implications, including real assets and alternativesTimestamps00:00 Introduction and the Great Inflection Point outlook03:00 Cycle, valuation, and sentiment investing framework05:50 From economic resilience to potential reacceleration07:00 AI as a transformational technology and historical parallels09:20 Measuring returns on AI investment and productivity gains11:00 The AI J-curve and timing of benefits13:00 Capital intensity, leverage, and risks for big tech15:00 Energy demand, labor markets, and AI risks19:00 How Paul uses AI in his own research workflow20:30 The case for economic reacceleration into 202621:40 Tariffs and their real economic impact23:20 Immigration and labor supply effects24:10 Uncertainty, confidence, and business decision-making26:10 Financial conditions and household wealth28:00 Fiscal stimulus and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act29:20 Deregulation as a potential growth tailwind30:40 Hard data versus soft data in the economy34:10 Why recession forecasts failed37:10 Recession risk outlook for 202640:30 Inflation dynamics and the Fed's focus43:50 Broadening market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven46:10 Investor sentiment, panic, and opportunity49:00 Translating macro views into portfolio strategy51:30 Real assets, alternatives, and diversification54:30 Investing lessons, compounding, and staying invested

In the latest episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson take a look back at 2025 and a look forward to 2026. Subscribe to Click Beta via the links below. Follow Click Beta:Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUs⁠Apple Podcasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457⁠YouTube:⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Adrian Helfert of Westwood to discuss how investors should be thinking about portfolio construction in a market shaped by artificial intelligence, high levels of concentration, shifting interest rate dynamics, and evolving economic signals. The conversation covers how AI-driven capital spending is changing return profiles across markets, why traditional investing rules are breaking down, and how investors can balance growth, income, and risk in an uncertain environment. Adrian shares his framework for understanding return drivers, his views on market concentration and valuation, and how to think about diversification, macro risk, and income generation going forward.Main topics covered• How Westwood frames portfolio construction around capital appreciation, income, and event-driven returns• Why AI spending is both a major opportunity and a growing existential risk for large companies• The sustainability of market concentration and what it means for future returns• Whether higher interest rates really hurt growth stocks the way investors expect• How massive data center and AI capital expenditures could translate into productivity gains• The case for market broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven• Why traditional recession indicators have failed in recent cycles• How inflation, labor markets, and Federal Reserve policy interact today• Rethinking the classic 60/40 portfolio and the role of private markets• Using covered calls and active income strategies to manage risk and generate yieldTimestamps00:00 Introduction and near-term opportunities versus long-term risk02:40 Capital appreciation, income, and event-driven investing framework06:30 Have markets structurally changed to support higher returns09:30 Intangible assets, AI, and margin expansion10:20 The scale of AI and data center capital spending13:00 Productivity gains and return on investment from AI16:00 AI as both opportunity and risk for companies19:30 Market concentration and diversification concerns23:30 Will market leadership eventually broaden25:30 Growth stocks, duration, and interest rates29:30 International diversification and global investing33:30 Why recession indicators have failed39:00 Inflation outlook and Federal Reserve policy46:00 Rethinking the 60/40 portfolio53:00 Enhanced income strategies and covered calls59:00 One investing belief most peers disagree with

In this special episode, Adam Butler and Ben Hunt join Matt Zeigler to unpack one of the most charged debates in markets and economics today: whether our official statistics still reflect lived reality. Building on Mike Green's work and Adam Butler's essay The Bureau of Missing Children, the conversation moves beyond the technical definition of poverty to a deeper idea of economic precarity, the growing gap between what we measure and what people actually experience. Together, they explore debt, housing, childcare, labor mobility, AI, and the erosion of meaning in economic language, while wrestling with what policy, community, and human-centered solutions might look like in a world that increasingly feels unstable.Main topics coveredWhy the debate should focus on precarity rather than povertyThe disconnect between inflation statistics and lived experienceHow debt, housing, childcare, and education drive economic insecurityThe idea of a participation budget for modern family formationWhy labor mobility has broken down since the financial crisisHow asset prices and credit intensify risk for householdsThe role of grandparents and off-balance-sheet support in the economyDarwin's wedge, positional goods, and rising costs of everyday lifeThe impact of AI, technocracy, and anti-human incentivesCentralized versus decentralized solutions to today's economic challengesWhat it means to carry the fire and preserve human-centered valuesTimestamps00:00 Introduction and the emotional roots of the precarity debate02:00 Poverty versus precarity and what we are really measuring06:30 Technocrats, narratives, and the limits of economic statistics09:00 Personal experiences with precarity and debt15:00 The Bureau of Missing Children and family formation economics21:00 Modeling household income and participation budgets25:50 Rising costs of childcare, housing, and everyday life33:00 Darwin's wedge and positional competition36:45 Debt, housing, and labor immobility40:00 Grandparents, unpaid care, and off-balance-sheet subsidies46:30 How today differs from 40 or 50 years ago49:40 Labor mobility as a lost engine of opportunity55:00 Policy paths, mission-driven economics, and decentralization01:11:00 Visionary leadership versus bottom-up solutions01:15:50 Carrying the fire and preserving meaning01:17:30 Where to follow Adam Butler and Ben Hunt

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with David Wright, Head of Quantitative Investing at Pictet Asset Management, for a deep and practical conversation about how artificial intelligence and machine learning are actually being used in real-world investment strategies. Rather than focusing on hype or black-box promises, David walks through how systematic investors combine human judgment, economic intuition, and machine learning models to forecast stock returns, construct portfolios, and manage risk. The discussion covers what AI can and cannot do in investing today, how machine learning differs from traditional factor models and large language models like ChatGPT, and why interpretability and robustness still matter. This episode is a must-watch for investors interested in quantitative investing, AI-driven ETFs, and the future of systematic portfolio construction.Main topics covered:What artificial intelligence and machine learning really mean in an investing contextHow machine learning models are trained to forecast relative stock returnsThe role of features, signals, and decision trees in quantitative investingKey differences between machine learning models and large language models like ChatGPTWhy interpretability and stability matter more than hype in AI investingHow human judgment and machine learning complement each other in portfolio managementData selection, feature engineering, and the trade-offs between traditional and alternative dataOverfitting, data mining concerns, and how professional investors build guardrailsTime horizons, rebalancing frequency, and transaction cost considerationsHow AI-driven strategies are implemented in diversified portfolios and ETFsThe future of AI in investing and what it means for investorsTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and overview of AI and machine learning in investing03:00 Defining artificial intelligence vs machine learning in finance05:00 How machine learning models are trained using financial data07:00 Machine learning vs ChatGPT and large language models for stock selection09:45 Decision trees and how machine learning makes forecasts12:00 Choosing data inputs: traditional data vs alternative data14:40 The role of economic intuition and explainability in quant models18:00 Time horizons and why machine learning works better at shorter horizons22:00 Can machine learning improve traditional factor investing24:00 Data mining, overfitting, and model robustness26:00 What humans do better than AI and where machines excel30:00 Feature importance, conditioning effects, and model structure32:00 Model retraining, stability, and long-term persistence36:00 The future of automation and human oversight in investing40:00 Why ChatGPT-style models struggle with portfolio construction45:00 Portfolio construction, diversification, and ETF implementation51:00 Rebalancing, transaction costs, and practical execution56:00 Surprising insights from machine learning models59:00 Closing lessons on investing and avoiding overtrading

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, Bogumil Baranowki and Matt Zeigler explain how investors get trapped by labels, abstractions, and simplistic models, and why breaking free with better mental models, language, and long-term thinking is a real edge in markets.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003⁠⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠⁠https://youtube.com/@excessreturns⁠

Brent Kochuba takes a look behind the scenes at the options flows driving the market heading into the December options expiration and the end of 2025. Subscribe on Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJf⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0ALw

Ed Yardeni returns to Excess Returns to break down the evolving market landscape, why he moved the Magnificent 7 to underweight, and how AI, productivity, interest rates, global markets, and sector leadership will shape the next stage of the Roaring 2020s. Ed explains why the economy has remained so resilient, what could finally trigger a true market broadening, and how investors should think about everything from tech competition to inflation, private credit risks, and Fed policy heading into 2026.Main topics covered• Why Ed reduced the Magnificent 7 and tech from overweight to market weight• How extreme sector concentration affects portfolio construction• The escalating competition inside AI and large-cap tech• The AI CapEx boom and how it changes earnings, margins, and valuation• Valuation considerations for tech leaders at this stage of the cycle• Whether the Mag 7 should be compared to past tech bubbles• How AI adoption may spread to the broader economy and boost productivity• Economic impact of AI on jobs, wages, and long-term inflation• Why the US economy avoided recession despite persistent warnings• Rolling recessions vs traditional recessions and how they shape markets• Private credit risks and whether they pose a systemic threat• Prospects for small caps, mid caps, financials, industrials, and healthcare• Why 2026 may finally bring true market broadening• The outlook for international investing and emerging markets• Ed's S&P 500 roadmap to 7,700 next year and 10,000 by 2029• Fed policy, rate cuts, inflation, bond vigilantes, and political pressure• Key risks investors should monitor heading into 2026Timestamps00:00 Mag 7 concentration and the case for rebalancing03:00 How Ed builds probability-based market scenarios04:30 Why the Roaring 2020s thesis still holds06:00 The no-show recession and economic resilience07:00 Why he moved the Mag 7 and tech to market weight09:30 How every company is becoming a technology company12:20 Knowing when a successful thesis has run its course13:30 The dominance of the US market and global diversification15:00 Why market weight, not overweight, for tech and the Mag 716:00 Tech competition, AI leapfrogging, and margin pressure18:30 The CapEx boom and valuation questions21:00 Comparing today's tech leaders to the 2000 era23:00 How AI could lift productivity across the entire economy25:00 Putting AI in historical context27:00 How new technologies solve constraints like energy and compute29:00 AI's long-term impact on productivity and growth30:00 Labor market disruption and job transition dynamics31:20 Will AI be deflationary over time?32:30 Technology, China, automation, and global deflation forces33:00 Ed's forecast for the S&P 500 through 202935:00 Why recession indicators failed this cycle37:00 How liquidity facilities prevent credit crunches39:00 Private credit risks and transparency challenges40:45 The potential for market broadening in 202642:20 Takeaways from the latest Fed meeting44:00 Should the Fed be cutting rates?45:00 Fed independence under political pressure47:00 Why bond vigilantes may return in 202648:00 International investing opportunities and ETFs49:30 Closing thoughts and key risks ahead

We are including this episode from our separate show Teach Me Like I'm Five in the Excess Returns feed. If you would like to continue receiving new episodes, subscribe using the links below.In the episode, we sit down with Business Breakdowns host Matt Reustle to discuss how he breaks down businesses and the common characteristics that the best businesses he has looked at share. Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/7zu6lFpPohoPKhcu0Er9kBSubscribe on Apple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/hr/podcast/teach-me-like-im-five-investing-concepts-made-simple/id1815975642

In this episode of Excess Returns, Graeme Forster of Orbis joins us to discuss two major research papers: Six Courageous Questions for 2026 and Sunrise on Venus. We explore how long-running global trends may be reversing, what that means for U.S. dominance, the future of international and emerging markets, the risks and opportunities created by AI and massive CapEx spending, the dollar's shifting role, and how investors should think about valuation, humility, and navigating a world where the economic “water” is changing. This conversation is packed with global macro insight, long-term investing lessons, and practical frameworks for building more resilient portfolios. Topics Covered:• Why long-term market “water” becomes invisible to investors• Self-reinforcing global cycles and how China's WTO entry reshaped the world• Signs the 25-year U.S. outperformance cycle may be breaking• How tariffs, political shifts, and corporate reforms change the global landscape• Why international and emerging markets may now offer better expected returns• Why U.S. large caps are not the entire story of American exceptionalism• How to think about valuation, margins, and discounted cash flow models across markets• The AI boom, bubbles, capital cycles, and asymmetric outcomes• How AI CapEx constraints influence winners and losers• The shifting role of the U.S. dollar and why market shocks may behave differently• Maslow's hierarchy, needs vs. wants, and the return of state-driven capital investment• Deglobalization, reshoring, and the national-security lens for investing• How to evaluate China and Taiwan inside emerging markets• Why humility is an investor's greatest edgeTimestamps:00:00 Introduction01:02 Why Orbis wrote Six Courageous Questions for 202603:44 The David Foster Wallace “water” analogy and investing06:12 How a 25-year self-reinforcing cycle powered U.S. outperformance10:12 Signs the cycle may be breaking12:00 Corporate reform and opportunity in Asia13:55 Why active share, benchmarking, and incentives distort investor behavior17:31 Decomposing S&P 500 returns: margins, valuations, fundamentals20:20 Expected returns inside and outside the U.S.22:34 Why international stocks offer richer opportunity sets24:25 Currency implications and weakening dollar dynamics26:18 American exceptionalism beyond the top 10 mega caps28:49 Where Orbis is finding value today30:25 Biotech, healthcare, and post-COVID dislocation31:05 How Orbis thinks about valuation in an intangible-heavy world32:09 Is AI a bubble or the beginning of something bigger?34:30 Game theory of AI CapEx and right-tail outcomes36:00 CapEx cycles, history, and who benefits38:00 Indirect AI beneficiaries and the SK Square example40:35 Maslow's hierarchy and the shift from wants to needs42:32 Deglobalization, national security, and domestic reinvestment44:00 Capital returning to home markets and strategic industries46:00 Can anything reverse these structural trends?48:00 Balancing bottom-up investing with macro awareness49:45 The deeper risk in emerging markets: owning vs. avoiding51:00 Valuation still matters for long-term returns52:29 Corporate behavior, dividends, and re-rating cycles53:52 How Orbis views China vs. bottom-up opportunity55:34 Why great investors must be right 90–95% of the time in decision quality58:00 One lesson Graeme would teach the average investor

James Grant, legendary founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on cycles, interest rates, inflation, credit, the Federal Reserve, private markets, gold, and the future of investing. Grant brings five decades of historical perspective to today's market extremes, explaining why this era of ultra-low interest rates created distortions that will shape returns for years to come — and where patient investors may ultimately find opportunity.Topics Covered• The historical patterns that define major market cycles• Why interest rate cycles unfold over generations• What the 2021 bond market top tells us about the next decade• How inflation behaves like an underground coal fire• The shift from “capitalism without capital” to the “tangible twenties”• Geopolitical tension, military spending, and inflation risk• The Fed's role in shaping today's market distortions• The long-term consequences of QE and financial repression• Private credit, opaque marks, and the fragility beneath the surface• Rising risks inside life insurance balance sheets• Why credit cycles always go further than anyone expects• The challenge of finding long opportunities in today's market• Why liquidity and patience may be the biggest opportunities• Whether the classic 60/40 portfolio still works• Gold as money and why confidence in paper currencies is eroding• Jim Grant's one lesson for the average investorTimestamps00:00 Cycle extremes and market absurdities01:00 Interest rates over generations07:00 Defining major tops and bottoms12:30 Where we are in the current rate cycle14:00 Inflation, armed conflict, and tangible investment18:00 The “tangible twenties” and data center boom19:00 Coal fire inflation analogy20:00 Fed independence, politics, and monetary power25:00 The long shadow of the 2008 crisis30:00 QE, zero rates, and long-term consequences33:00 Housing affordability and locked-in rates34:00 Risks in private credit and opaque marks36:00 How far the credit cycle has progressed38:00 Japan, value investing, and long cycles43:00 Where opportunities exist today47:00 The future of the 60/40 portfolio49:00 Structural risks from low-rate distortions51:00 Freedom, politics, and economic consequences56:00 Gold as money58:00 What Jim Grant believes most investors disagree with59:30 The one lesson Jim Grant would teach the average investor

In this episode, we're joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim's latest charts from Paulsen Perspectives and explore what they mean for stocks, sectors, interest rates, the dollar, and leadership in the year ahead.Topics covered in this episode:• The state of inflation and why CPI and PPI may be sending a very different message• The 20-year collapse in real sustainable GDP growth• Why job creation, labor force growth, and productivity have all structurally weakened• The rise in unemployment duration and what it signals about lost “animal spirits”• How demographics, immigration policy, and cultural shifts are shaping growth• Productivity puzzles: innovation vs. distraction in a tech-driven economy• Why the real economic risk may be deflation, not inflation• How monetary policy, the yield curve, the dollar, and fiscal policy have remained contractionary• Tariffs as a hidden tax and their real impact on inflation• How an easing cycle could reshape market leadership in 2026• Jim's Total Policy Stimulus Index and what it reveals about small caps, cyclicals, value, and foreign stocks• The difference between today's tech cycle and the dot-com bubble• What a broadening market might look like if policy finally turns supportive• How international equities could respond to a weaker dollar• Why tech may underperform without collapsing• Jim's expectations for S&P 500 returns in 2026 and the potential for a more balanced leadership environmentTimestamps:00:00 Market setup and inflation overview02:00 Reviewing recent corrections and sector broadening04:00 Bond yields, easing expectations, and fear-based asset leadership06:00 Tech's relative performance beginning to fade07:00 GDP growth collapse over two decades09:00 Structural slowdown in job creation10:30 Labor force growth and aging demographics12:00 The doubling of unemployment duration14:00 Population trends, immigration, and slowing productivity17:00 The rise of de-risking and falling monetary velocity19:00 Trade deficits, globalization, and policy contraction22:00 Why inflation risk may be overstated26:00 CPI/PPI data versus the inflation narrative29:00 Money supply, real rates, and the longest yield curve inversion31:00 The strong dollar as a contractionary force34:00 International stock performance and currency impact35:00 Tax burden relative to slower growth37:00 Tariffs as taxes and their real economic effect39:00 What would it take to restore growth and optimism?42:00 The Total Policy Stimulus Index explained47:00 Policy's impact on equal-weight, small caps, cyclicals, and value52:00 How foreign stocks respond to policy and the dollar54:00 Tech valuations today vs. the dot-com era55:00 Fed response differences between now and 200057:00 Why today's tech cycle is structurally different59:00 What 2026 might look like for the S&P 50001:01:00 Why price targets are inherently unreliable01:01:45 Closing thoughts and sign-off

In this special episode of Excess Returns, we share the most important investing lessons from more than 50 of our top guests. After asking more than 200 investors, strategists, academics, and market thinkers the same closing question about the one lesson they would teach the average investor, we compiled the most powerful, timeless, and repeatable insights into a single episode. This collection highlights common themes around patience, discipline, humility, diversification, risk management, and long-term thinking, while revealing how great investors navigate markets, behavior, and uncertainty.Main topics covered:Why investing is about preserving and growing wealth, not getting richWhy neither get in nor get out is an investing strategyThe role of base rates in decision-makingThe dangers of performance chasingWhy you should look at your portfolio less oftenThe importance of independent thinking and avoiding envyTreating stocks as businesses, not trading sardinesDiversification across assets, strategies, and economic regimesThe behavioral traps that destroy wealthLiquidity, supply and demand, and how markets really functionThe value of patience, long-term thinking, and sticking to your planHow to build a resilient portfolio that survives different market environmentsWhy simplicity often beats complexityThe role of humility, self-awareness, and keeping emotions out of investingTimestamps:00:00 Investing is about preserving and growing wealth00:45 Why neither get in nor get out is a strategy01:16 How we arrived at the one-lesson question02:00 Finding a portfolio you can live with03:00 Avoiding envy and chasing 10-baggers04:00 Why watching markets too closely hurts results05:00 The Matt Levine rule of unbelievable returns06:00 The power of base rates08:00 Look at your portfolio as little as possible10:00 Treat your holdings like real businesses12:00 Be invested early and think independently14:00 Be kind to yourself and keep taking action15:58 Do not chase performance17:00 Treat every position like you put it on today18:31 Your portfolio is secondary to your life19:44 Buy when others are fearful20:00 Be Rip Van Winkle, not Nostradamus22:00 Navigate the noise and avoid the siren song23:38 The value of simplicity and studying history24:59 Patience and tuning out the noise26:00 True diversification and preparing for unknown regimes27:50 Stick to a strategy that fits your personality29:00 Diversify and be humble about what you know30:00 Most results come from the market, not manager skill32:38 Keep investing simple34:00 Focus on what is knowable35:00 Believe in long-term economic and market resilience37:00 Get out of your own way38:22 Build a philosophy you can stick to39:00 Misjudging probabilities and confidence40:46 Book your gains and contain your losses41:00 Diversification is protection against bad luck42:00 Supply, demand, and liquidity always matter45:00 Markets as a political utility46:00 Find something real if you want true alpha47:00 Write down your decisions48:32 Why 100 percent indexing is unrealistic for most50:00 Alpha through portfolio structure, not just stock picking52:00 Dividends and long-run investing53:56 Valuation, time horizons, and patience55:00 Embracing uncertainty and avoiding pigeonholing56:33 Rules-based processes57:35 Buy good businesses, not just cheap ones59:00 Think long term and save early01:01:00 Focus on the basics first01:02:00 Avoid catastrophic losses01:03:22 Evidence-based investing and avoiding resulting01:04:09 Know what you own and keep fees low01:05:00 Simple strategies often work best01:06:00 Compounding and emotional control01:07:00 Treat savings as savings, not lottery tickets01:07:50 Balance enjoying today with protecting tomorrow01:08:00 Stay invested and think long term01:08:41 Be humble, patient, and systematic01:09:00 Do your own work and build conviction

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ben explains why AI buildout is consuming enormous resources, how this echoes World War II scale mobilization, why consumers are already feeling the strain, and what policies could still steer the country toward a healthier economic path.Topics covered:• Why the AI narrative flipped from optimism to national security• How AI CapEx creates shortages of energy, capital, and investment elsewhere• The parallels between AI buildout and World War II economic mobilization• Why the promise of AI-driven productivity and leisure was never realistic• The coming squeeze on consumers through higher prices and reduced availability• Why energy bottlenecks and electricity scarcity may lead to rationing• The risk of stagflation and a shrinking job base as AI replaces human labor• The political paths this could take, from authoritarianism to backlash• Ben's three-policy plan: reshoring, energy expansion, and electricity caps• How investors should think about the boom-bust risk of hyperscale growth• Why awareness and public conversation are essential before the window closesTimestamps:00:00 AI narrative shift and the failure of the carrot01:20 Measuring narratives through Perscient Pro05:30 Why Ben wrote World War AI07:30 The carrot vs. the stick in AI storytelling11:00 Utility bills, consumer squeeze, and rising economic pressures12:30 World War II-level spending and debt dynamics15:30 Crowding out the consumer economy17:00 Interest rates, borrowing, and capital shortages20:00 Energy usage, electricity scarcity, and cost-push inflation24:00 Rationing risk and historical parallels26:00 Jobs, productivity, and AI's impact on labor31:00 The lack of new job creation in an AI-driven economy33:00 Why new-tech job optimism does not apply here38:00 Market skepticism and narrative extremes41:00 Political risk, backlash, and potential future paths42:20 The three policies: reshoring, energy buildout, electricity caps49:30 Investment implications and the boom-bust cycle55:00 How AI growth must be subordinated to broader economic goals57:00 Why connecting consumer pain to AI buildout is essential59:30 Early signs of state-level limits on data centers01:02:00 Where to follow Ben Hunt and the continuing story

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for one of the most wide-ranging and eye-opening conversations we have ever hosted. Louis breaks down how China transformed its economy over the last seven years, why Western observers consistently misunderstand the country's growth model, and what this means for global markets, AI competition, supply chains, currencies, energy, demographics, and the next decade of investing. If you want a clearer picture of China, global macro dynamics, and the forces shaping markets today, this is essential viewing.Topics covered in this episode:• Why Western investors misread China's economy• China's response to the US semiconductor embargo• How China redirected all lending toward industry• The scale and speed of China's move up the value chain• China's EV dominance and the BYD vs. Tesla comparison• The new global deflation and reflation forces• Why China now looks like the US did in 2009• Energy, labor, and industrial competitiveness• China's open-source AI approach vs. America's closed systems• “Hunger Games” capitalism and the impact on investors• Where foreign investors consistently get China wrong• The RMB as the most mispriced major asset• How China's demographics shape policy and markets• Why fears of a Taiwan conflict are overblown• How Louis is positioning for China's next bull marketTimestamps:00:00 China's economic shock and the US semiconductor embargo02:00 What the West gets wrong about China04:00 Competition, local governments, and industrial incentives06:10 China's lending shift: real estate to industry08:00 China's rapid climb up the value chain10:00 BYD vs Tesla and China's engineering surge12:30 The global deflationary shock and US–China tensions15:00 From defense to offense: China's policy pivot17:00 China's reflation and emerging market implications18:20 Scarcity of energy, labor, and time21:00 China's cost advantages vs the US24:00 Comparing AI strategies: open vs closed systems28:00 “Hunger Games” capitalism in China31:30 Investing challenges and opportunities in China34:00 China's new high-tech niche champions37:00 Capital-light Chinese AI vs US capital intensity40:30 Rethinking US-China blocs and global alliances44:00 Why Europe will be torn apart by the next phase45:30 Will China outperform the US over the next decade?47:00 The massively undervalued RMB49:00 China's barbell investment setup50:00 China's demographic crisis and policy response53:00 Taiwan risk: myth vs reality58:00 How Louis could be wrong01:00:40 Louis's contrarian investing belief01:02:00 Louis's one lesson for investors

In this episode, we sit down with Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels to break down her new 2026 outlook. We cover her long-term S&P 500 forecast, why she believes we are still early in a secular bull market, how technological innovation is fueling productivity and profitability, the risks she's watching in 2026, and the case for international stocks, gold, and diversification. Mary Ann also explains why skepticism suggests we are not yet in a true bubble, how valuations fit into today's market, and what investors should understand about cycles, inflation, and long-term compounding.Topics Covered• Secular bull markets and why the long-term trend still points higher• Whether today's market is following historic bubble patterns• AI, technology cycles, and the connection between innovation, productivity, and profits• Why skepticism means we are not yet near euphoria• The 2026 “reset” and how the presidential cycle could affect markets• Valuations, earnings trends, and interest-rate dynamics• Market concentration, structural changes, and the role of mega-caps• Growth vs value and why growth leadership may persist• Why international markets may be entering their own secular bull market• Inflation outlook, tariffs, and what the data now suggests• Private credit concerns and overall financial-system stability• Gold's surge, future targets, and its role as portfolio diversification• Portfolio construction, risk, and the importance of compounding for younger investorsTimestamps00:00 Market patterns, bubbles, and early-cycle dynamics01:00 Introduction02:00 Long-term S&P 500 outlook04:00 Historical bubble analogs and market psychology06:00 Skepticism vs optimism09:00 2026 reset and election-year dynamics13:00 Valuations and PE expansion17:00 Long-term valuation trends17:40 Innovation cycles and economic growth20:20 Productivity, AI CapEx, and profitability21:00 Technology adoption across industries22:20 Digitization and long-term tech layers22:30 Market concentration and structural changes25:00 Why corrections are more frequent27:20 Growth vs value31:00 International markets outlook36:00 Correlations, deglobalization, and opportunity38:40 Inflation short-term vs long-term40:30 Private credit and financial stability43:30 Gold outlook and targets45:40 Diversifying concentrated portfolios48:40 Crypto, private markets, and generational shifts49:20 Key risks for 202651:40 What most investors get wrong53:00 The one lesson for the average investor54:40 Closing

In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk with Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, about navigating today's fixed income landscape. Carl breaks down the major segments of the bond market, explains how credit and interest rate cycles interact, discusses private credit risks, and shares how he builds durable, low-volatility bond portfolios. Drawing on more than two decades managing one of the top multi-sector income funds, Carl offers clear, practical insights for investors trying to understand yields, defaults, duration, and where returns are most attractive today.Main topics covered:• Overview of investment grade, high yield, leveraged loans, and private credit• How today's credit quality is shifting across the bond market• Why the high yield market may be higher quality than most investors realize• How levered loans and private credit have changed system dynamics• How Carl uses the interest rate cycle and credit cycle to position the portfolio• Why he avoids style boxes and instead buys bonds like a stock picker• The flaws in fixed income indexing and why active management matters more in bonds• How he evaluates companies, business models, leverage, and free cash flow• Why distributors and equipment rental companies are strong long-term bond businesses• The risks of the AI Capex boom and echoes of past bubbles• Where defaults are rising and why private credit concerns may not be systemic• Why his portfolio is short duration and how he uses cash as optionality• How he protects against large drawdowns and manages risk across cycles• His perspective on the Fed, inflation, employment data, and rate cuts• Carl's one investing belief most peers disagree with• The one lesson he would teach every investorTimestamps:00:00 Intro and bond market quality shift01:00 Carl's background and fund philosophy02:42 Defining investment grade, high yield, loans, and private credit08:00 Why high yield quality has improved10:07 The two-cycle approach: interest rates and credit14:31 How today's cycle differs18:03 Why forecasting matters less than knowing where you are18:52 Buying bonds like a stock picker25:28 Index flaws in fixed income26:56 Sectors Carl prefers29:16 Thoughts on AI Capex, Nvidia, and financing trends33:10 Sector concentration in bond portfolios34:51 Position sizing and portfolio construction35:43 Cracks in private credit and default data39:45 Private credit for retail investors40:34 Why Carl is short duration today44:57 Using cash and liquidity as a strategic tool45:44 Risk management and drawdowns47:29 The Fed, inflation, employment, and policy uncertainty53:53 Closing questions: belief peers disagree with54:45 One lesson for the average investor

Follow Us on Substack:https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/In this episode, we sit down with Rob Arnott for a wide-ranging discussion on bubbles, valuations, AI spending, market history, index construction, and long-term return expectations. Rob explains how to think about bubbles in real time, why today's market echoes the late 1990s, and what investors can practically do to improve future returns. He also digs into Research Affiliates' latest work on fundamental indexing, growth investing, and the opportunities in international and emerging markets.Topics covered:• How Rob defines a bubble and why narrative drives market pricing• Lessons from the dot-com era that apply to today's AI-driven market• Why disruptors eventually get disrupted• Practical portfolio steps for investors concerned about concentration• Why value stocks remain historically cheap• CapEx vs R and D and what history says about future returns• The role of AI spending and why many companies struggle to monetize it• How AI may reshape industries and who the real long-term winners could be• Index construction flaws and how RA's RAFI and RACWI approaches differ• A new way to build growth indexes using actual business growth• Why expensive companies with slow growth are the worst quadrant to own• Insights on emerging markets, international value, and forward return expectations• How Rob invests personally and what he sees as the best long-term opportunitiesTimestamps:00:00 Defining bubbles and why narrative matters02:00 Are we in a bubble today06:20 Lessons from the dot-com boom12:00 What investors can practically do now14:00 Value, RAFI, and rebalancing alpha17:00 AI CapEx and its historical parallels20:30 Who benefits most from AI23:00 Disruption, technology cycles, and productivity35:00 Reinventing index construction40:00 A new way to define and weight growth stocks43:30 The problem with expensive slow-growth companies46:00 Magnificent Seven through the growth lens52:00 Rob's outlook on emerging markets55:00 Why the US is priced for perfection57:00 Averaging out and trimming expensive winners58:00 New research and future product ideas from RA59:00 Rob's personal portfolio approach and long-short ideas01:00:20 Closing thoughts and outlook

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In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed's dilemma, AI's real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost.Topics covered:• The late-cycle economy and the disconnect between markets and weakening real-world data• Why labor markets look softer than headlines suggest• How tariffs are affecting inflation, growth, and consumer spending• The Fed's policy bind and why reasonable cases exist for both cutting and holding• The slowdown in household income growth and the idea of a “slow-cession”• AI spending, productivity claims, and why the economic benefits are not yet showing up• The self-referential nature of Big Tech AI spending and poor return on AI CapEx• Why real-economy companies may not see meaningful profit uplift from AI• The private credit and private equity concerns Bob sees building• Hidden risks and information asymmetry in private-market products• New hedge-fund-style ETF strategies built using replication technology• Equity long-short, global macro, and managed futures as standalone ETF exposures• Why fee reduction is the most durable source of hedge-fund alpha• How advisors are shifting from 60/40 toward 50/30/20 allocations with alternativesTimestamps:00:00 Macro conditions and weakening labor market02:00 Disconnect between markets and the real economy04:00 Working without government data during the shutdown06:00 Inflation trends and tariff impacts10:00 Fed policy, cuts, and late-cycle dynamics12:30 Income-driven vs debt-driven cycles15:00 Slow-cession and household spending power18:30 Fed uncertainty and prediction challenges21:00 Why the Fed paused quantitative tightening25:00 Liquidity, reserves, and bank system mechanics28:00 Equity markets, expectations, and AI mania31:00 AI spending, productivity doubts, and return on investment37:00 Business models, layoffs, and macro implications40:00 Private credit, private equity, and hidden risks45:00 How some private-market ETFs may disadvantage retail investors47:00 New Unlimited ETF strategies and how replication works52:00 Equity long-short, macro, and managed futures inside an ETF55:00 Late-cycle benefits of tactical positioning57:00 Future strategies and expanding the replication lineup59:00 Fee advantages and democratizing hedge-fund-style returns

Subscribe on Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠https://youtube.com/@excessreturnsIn this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Bogumil Baranowski, and Matt Zeigler dive deep into what truly makes a great business and how long-term investors can develop the conviction to hold through volatility, dead-money periods, and inevitable mistakes. They break down the characteristics of the perfect business, the behavioral challenges of long-term investing, the pain of errors of omission, how to evaluate management, and why returns on capital and cash generation matter so much over decades.

Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely withdraw closer to 4.7% — or even more — under certain conditions. We explore the data behind his findings, how to think about inflation, valuations, longevity, and sequence of returns risk, and the philosophy of living well in retirement.Topics covered:The origins and evolution of the 4% ruleHow Bill discovered the worst-case retirement scenario (1968)The role of inflation and market valuations in withdrawal ratesWhy he now recommends 65% equities instead of 55%How diversification increases sustainable withdrawalsThe logic behind a U-shaped equity glide pathSequence of returns risk and how to mitigate itThoughts on the permanent portfolio and goldBucket strategies and cash reservesDynamic vs. fixed withdrawal methodsHow longevity and FIRE affect planning horizonsWhy retirees should spend and enjoy moreThe philosophy behind “A Richer Retirement”Timestamps:00:00 The origins of the 4% rule03:00 The 1968 retirement “buzz saw” scenario07:00 Common misconceptions about the 4% rule10:00 Inflation and valuation adjustments13:00 Diversification and higher withdrawal rates15:00 Longevity, FIRE, and extended retirements16:00 The U-shaped equity glide path18:00 Rebalancing and allocation timing19:00 The permanent portfolio and gold20:00 Sequence of returns risk explained22:00 Cash reserves and bucket strategies23:00 Dynamic withdrawal approaches24:00 Why the rule is now closer to 4.7%27:00 The changing market environment29:00 Key charts and frameworks from the book31:00 The eight essential elements of planning33:00 Withdrawal strategies and asset allocation34:00 Required minimum distributions36:00 Reflections on creating the 4% rule38:00 Bill's philosophy on life and retirement40:00 Closing thoughts and where to find his book

In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World's Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin's frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions.Main topics covered:Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and lifeHow to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock pricesWhy multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcutsUnderstanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is goodLessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision makingHow humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgmentReflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative process

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China's resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he's positioning across equities, credit, and real assets in what he believes could be the start of a long cycle shift away from U.S. dominance.Topics covered:China's accelerating industrial and market recoveryWhy he sees the start of an 8–10 year bull market in ChinaThe “CapEx time bomb” under the Mag 7U.S. vs. international equity performance and valuationsThe rise of fallen angels and how private credit changed high yieldWhy he may soon flip from short to long creditThe end of the stock-bond correlation eraHis “Bushy” portfolio and defensive positioningTrend following, precious metals, and EM local debtEmerging opportunities in Africa and UzbekistanThe global energy complex and long-dated crude exposureShort ideas in fast casual restaurants and the “forgotten 493”How investor sentiment extremes create opportunityTimestamps:00:00 China's transformation and why Rupert's bullish05:00 The Made in China 2025 plan and global dominance07:00 U.S. vs. international equity rotation10:00 The Mag 7's CapEx problem14:00 The “forgotten 493” and passive flow dynamics18:00 Bonds, credit spreads, and what the yield curve says21:00 Private credit, fallen angels, and the next credit setup25:00 The end of risk parity and correlation breakdown27:00 Inside the Bushy portfolio and alternatives30:00 Gold, miners, and precious metals strategy33:00 Frontier and EM opportunities – Africa and Uzbekistan39:00 The Acorns portfolio and global positioning44:00 Energy stocks, refiners, and long-dated crude49:00 The restaurant short thesis and U.S. consumer trends53:00 Where to follow Rupert and Blind Squirrel Macro

In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investors, and how to think about the real opportunities hiding beneath the market's current narrow leadership. Richard breaks down his profit cycle framework, shares why investors are confusing economic stories for investment stories, and explains why non-US quality stocks and dividend strategies may be primed for a comeback.Topics covered• Speculation across asset classes and why it matters• Why fundamentals still offer big opportunities• The profit cycle vs the economic cycle• Divergence between the market leaders and the broader market• Inflation, pricing power, and corporate margins• Parallels between the AI boom and the dot-com bubble• Misallocation of capital and risks to the market• The case for non-US quality stocks• Where value investing could shine again• Dividend compounding and long-term wealth building• How RBA approaches macro-driven ETF investing• What investors are getting wrong about diversification• Deglobalization, reindustrialization, and long-term themesTimestamps00:00 Intro and speculative environment01:46 Best opportunities for patient investors03:52 Profit cycle framework explained06:00 Where we are in the profit cycle07:32 What investors are missing on inflation09:12 Lessons from the dot-com era and AI comparisons13:46 What could trigger the speculative unwind17:18 Valuations, CAPE, and return expectations20:23 AI's impact on margins and productivity22:39 Can value outperform again25:41 International opportunities and quality stocks34:31 Market breadth and narrow leadership36:00 The Fed, inflation targeting, and policy risks40:11 RBA's investment process and ETF selection47:13 Diversification vs speculation behavior49:26 Misallocation of capital and market risks52:00 Deglobalization and manufacturing opportunities54:13 Closing question: Stock market vs horse race57:40 The business Richard would start today58:29 Where to follow Richard Bernstein

In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocation, valuation signals, buybacks, managed futures, and the dangers of extrapolating past returns into the future.Topics covered:• Victor's journey from LTCM to simple, systematic investing• Why position sizing is as important as what you own• How to think about expected returns and valuation frameworks like CAPE and P-CAPE• The role of risk, risk premia, and personal utility in portfolio decisions• Why 60/40 and the permanent portfolio ignore expected returns• Buybacks, market elasticity, and capital flows• Indexing misconceptions and asset allocation discipline• The ETF structure and tax efficiency in asset allocation strategies• Concentration in large tech stocks and long-term equity returns• The importance of dynamic asset allocation vs static allocation• Key lessons for individual investors and avoiding “too good to be true” opportunities Timestamps:00:00 Intro and Victor's investing journey03:00 Lessons from LTCM and shift to simplicity09:00 Position sizing vs asset selection13:00 Risk as a cost and thinking in expected returns18:00 CAPE and the P-CAPE framework26:00 How to use expected return estimates34:00 The impact of buybacks on equity markets39:00 Indexing vs poor asset allocation habits43:00 Portfolio construction and global diversification46:00 Why the permanent portfolio falls short47:00 Managed futures and factors beyond stocks and bonds50:00 Inside Elm's dynamic allocation ETF55:00 Market concentration and equity issuance risks01:01:00 The case for dynamic allocation01:02:50 Victor's one investing lesson

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In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today's volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification, and building portfolios for a world where liquidity flows dictate outcomes.Main topics coveredWhy we are in a bubble but still likely to go higher firstFundamentals vs liquidity as drivers of returnsOptions as the “3-D” market and how they now drive equitiesReflexivity and how option flows influence asset pricesRetail adoption of options and misperceptions in the spaceAI investment boom, tail risks, and market liquidity feedback loopsHistorical valuation regimes and recency bias in marketsPortfolio construction beyond the 60/40 modelTail hedging and the role of long volatilityImportance of true diversification and managing interest-rate riskTimestamps00:00 Bubble dynamics and why being bullish can coexist with danger 03:00 Fundamentals vs liquidity as market drivers 08:00 Rise of options and how they now influence markets 14:00 Reflexivity explained in simple terms 19:00 Mistakes investors make with options and structured products 24:00 AI spending, liquidity expansion, and similarities to 1999 31:00 Tail risks, China/Taiwan, private markets, inflation signals 38:00 Why 60/40 has worked recently – and why it may fail ahead 52:00 Inequality, cycles, crisis as a clearing mechanism 54:00 Building a portfolio for the next decade: diversification, tail hedging, box spreads, and non-correlated strategies 1:04:00 Closing thoughts and takeaway for investors

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today's AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be captured as the cycle plays out.Topics covered:Why big tech's CapEx spending has exploded and how much they're investingThe trillions in revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure spendingHistorical parallels with the railroad and dot-com buildoutsWhy companies that invest heavily often underperformHow the Mag 7 are shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy businessesThe risks of “circular deals” and financial entanglement in AIWhy the AI race resembles a prisoner's dilemmaWhich layers of the AI stack may capture long-term valueHow early adopters and infrastructure players differ in capital intensity and returnsWhere investors might find opportunity beyond the obvious AI namesTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and overview of AI CapEx boom03:00 Why Kai researched AI investment cycles05:00 Scale of big tech's CapEx spending07:00 Revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure08:30 Market concentration and valuation risks11:30 Historical parallels: railroads, internet, and AI14:30 The capital cycle and overinvestment dynamics17:30 “This time is different?” and lessons from bubbles18:00 Factor investing and high-asset-growth underperformance21:00 Sector and firm-level CapEx trends22:30 Winner-take-all dynamics and competitive pressure26:00 How the Mag 7's business model is changing30:00 Comparing tech CapEx to utilities34:00 The circular deal problem and financial risk37:30 The AI arms race as a prisoner's dilemma40:30 Will AI be winner-take-all?43:30 Lessons from the railroad and dot-com eras47:00 Where the value is captured in infrastructure vs adoption48:00 Identifying early AI adopters and hidden beneficiaries50:30 Sector and geographic AI exposure54:00 Capital intensity and valuation differences between infrastructure and adopters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to hedge against inflation, interest rate shifts, and volatility in a unique way. We also discuss the bond market, inflation dynamics, and how investors can better understand and manage risks that are often hidden inside traditional portfolios.Main topics covered• How Nancy's experience trading volatility at Goldman Sachs shaped her investment philosophy• Why most investors are short volatility without realizing it• Understanding convexity and prepayment risk in bond portfolios• The rise of passive investing and its impact on interest rate volatility• How IVOL provides exposure to interest rate volatility and inflation protection• The problem with relying on CPI as a measure of inflation• Why gold is an inconsistent inflation hedge• The yield curve as an alternative indicator of inflation expectations• Why interest rate volatility is historically cheap today• The relationship between bond volatility and stock volatility• How to think about IVOL and BNDD in a diversified portfolio• The long-term risks of shorting volatility and selling options for “income”Timestamps00:00 Introduction and overview of option selling in markets02:15 Nancy's background at Goldman Sachs and lessons on volatility05:00 Understanding convexity and its importance in fixed income06:30 Why investors are short interest rate volatility without knowing it10:25 The hidden risks inside the bond market and the role of mortgages11:00 Why most investors are short inflation in real life13:00 Conventional vs. alternative inflation hedges17:00 Why CPI is an imperfect inflation measure18:00 How the yield curve reflects inflation expectations21:00 Historical yield curve data and current inversion25:00 Interest rate volatility after Silicon Valley Bank26:30 Relationship between bond and stock volatility28:00 Using IVOL in a portfolio31:00 Discussion on the national debt and interest rate risk32:00 BNDD ETF and how it complements IVOL33:30 Why inflation-protected bonds are underused in the US36:00 Closing questions – what Nancy believes most peers disagree with37:00 Why selling options is not income and the risks investors overlook

In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concentration risk to ETFs, managed futures, AI, and long-term discipline.Topics covered:The four historical periods of 15%+ annualized stock market returns and what followedWhy current U.S. valuations don't necessarily mean an immediate crashHow global value stocks are now outperforming the S&P 500The role of international diversification and real assets in portfoliosTrend following and managed futures as the “premier diversifiers”The benefits of blending trend and valuation-based strategiesThe permanent portfolio and how managed futures enhance itConcentration risk in U.S. equities and what history teaches about market leadershipThe parallels (and limits) between today's market and the dot-com bubbleAI's potential role in investing and portfolio managementThe behavioral traps around performance chasing and when to sellLessons from launching and running ETFs and the 351 exchange structure for tax efficiencyThe future of markets, retail investors, and Meb's upcoming book “Time Billionaires”Timestamps:00:00 Intro and market performance context04:00 Are U.S. valuations permanently higher?09:00 The spectrum of future returns and investor playbook12:00 International and value investing opportunities15:00 Trend following and managed futures19:00 The permanent portfolio and diversification25:00 Concentration risk and market structure28:00 AI's impact on investing32:00 Comparing today's market to the dot-com bubble37:00 The long-term case for value investing41:00 When to sell and investor behavior45:00 Lessons from running ETFs and industry evolution51:00 Understanding 351 exchanges and tax-efficient investing57:00 What's changed most for investors over 20 years59:00 Meb's new book “Time Billionaires” and closing thoughts

Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he's maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor.Topics covered:Data-driven investing and the “control the controllables” frameworkWhy the U.S. consumer remains resilientInflation outlook and how sticky prices impact portfoliosThe Fed's next moves and what investors should watchGlobal diversification and the case for international stocksHow to think about inflation protection and real assetsThe diffusion of AI and separating winners from pretendersMarket concentration, valuations, and managing riskLife lessons from a CIO: discipline, process, and informed decision-makingTimestamps:00:00 Introduction03:00 Controlling the controllables06:00 Why Eric remains optimistic on the economy10:00 How portfolio decisions flow through US Bank15:00 Data-driven insights vs. gut feel18:00 Consumer strength and scorecard22:40 Inflation outlook and Fed challenges30:00 Bond market risk and the “Brazilian steakhouse” analogy34:00 Global competition and diversification38:00 Inflation protection and real assets41:30 The reality of AI and productivity47:00 Market concentration and the Mag 752:00 Valuations and long-term returns55:45 Lessons for investors

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor's education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, international diversification, and the right withdrawal rates in retirement.Topics covered:Why macro forecasting rarely works as a long-term investment strategyThe four stages of the index investor's education: darkness, enlightenment, complexity, and simplicityHow financial advisors and Wall Street profit from unnecessary complexityThe case for international diversification and how to size it correctlyThe pros and cons of factor investing and why behavioral discipline matters more than factors themselvesWhy passive investing isn't “too big” and why indexing works over timeHow to think about valuations and investor psychologyTips, gold, and how to think about inflation protectionRethinking the 4% withdrawal rule and why goals for heirs matter more than formulasThe one piece of advice Rick would give to young investors todayTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and the four stages of an index investor03:00 Why macro forecasting fails as an investment tool07:00 The evolution from complexity to simplicity13:00 Complexity as job security for advisors18:00 Should investors own international stocks?23:00 The behavioral challenge of factor investing32:00 Is passive investing too big?34:00 What to do (and not do) with market valuations37:00 Managing investor behavior through small adjustments39:00 Inflation, TIPS, and the role of gold46:00 Why indexing works and what makes it unbeatable49:00 The 4% rule and smarter withdrawal strategies57:00 Advice for young investors and what Rick wants his legacy to be

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection on human capital, autonomy, and the behavioral side of markets.Topics covered:How liquidity replaced fundamentals as the market's main driverWhy investors must adapt to desynchronized global cyclesThe impact of debt, fiscal dominance, and government policy on marketsHousing as the next driver of the business cycleHow AI, robotics, and quantum computing are shaping the next growth waveThe maturation of crypto and what comes after the “altcoin season”Why narratives now drive price and how to read them effectivelyThe risks and opportunities in trading liquidity and fiscal policyThe cognitive and behavioral shifts driving modern investingProtecting human capital in the age of AI and automationTimestamps:00:00 Liquidity and the end of fundamentals06:17 Three continents, three policies, one fractured world12:20 Housing as the next driver of the cycle16:39 Crypto's evolution and fiscal dominance23:26 Portfolio positioning in a policy-driven market29:44 AI, human capital, and the risk to autonomy36:00 How narratives shape markets and investment themes52:00 Building a macro narrative and market framework58:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk premium. The conversation blends timeless investing wisdom with today's most important macro themes.Main topics covered:Why forecasts don't work and what investors should do insteadThe real economic risks of tariffs and immigration restrictionsHow AI may (or may not) impact productivity and market winnersHow to build anti-fragile portfolios around macro risksWhen and how to “sin a little” on bond duration and valuationLessons from past tech booms and investor overconfidenceThe 4% of stocks that drive all long-term equity returnsThe risks of concentration in the S&P 500Hidden costs of passive investing and large index fundsWhen index and factor funds get too big to trade efficientlyValue investing, interest rates, and inflation relationshipsThe evidence on simple value strategies like Piotroski and Magic FormulaHow to think about growth exposure using quality and low volatilityThe opportunities and dangers of private credit and interval fundsWhy illiquidity premiums exist and how to capture them prudentlyBehavioral discipline, diversification, and long-term compounding lessonsTimestamps:00:00 Forecasting failures and market humility03:30 Why Larry doesn't make macro predictions07:00 The real impact of tariffs and immigration on inflation and growth11:00 AI, productivity, and the question of who the real winners will be14:40 How to manage duration risk and “sin a little”18:00 Investor overconfidence and lessons from past tech booms21:00 Why only 4% of stocks explain all equity returns24:00 Market concentration and S&P 500 risk28:30 Why diversification still matters30:00 The hidden trading costs of index and factor funds38:00 How big fund size changes execution and exposure41:00 Is passive investing too big?42:30 Value vs growth and interest rate relationships45:00 Evidence on simple value strategies and Buffett's alpha51:00 Factor diversification and one-over-N strategy54:00 Private credit: opportunity and risks58:00 Illiquidity premiums and fund structure concerns01:00:00 Behavioral discipline, patience, and staying diversified

Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time.Main topics covered:Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of marketsThe case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longerThe key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemploymentComparing today's market to the dot-com eraWhy traditional recession indicators have failedHow COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronizationInflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watchingWhy valuation is a broken signal for stock pickingThe quant factors that matter most todayETF factor exposures and hidden risksHow to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private marketsWhy U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity marketKey lessons and philosophies for long-term investorsTimestamps:00:00 What really drives equity investing03:00 Adam Parker's background and multi-lens approach05:00 Why he's long-term bullish and sees S&P 10,00008:00 Structural margin expansion and AI productivity09:00 The three major bear cases14:00 How today compares to the 1990s tech bubble18:00 Why the economy has stayed resilient20:00 COVID's impact on business cycles23:00 Market structure, inventory, and margins24:00 Inflation, tariffs, and Fed outlook29:00 Deficits and why timing macro risks is hard32:00 Large vs small cap dynamics37:00 Why valuation doesn't work41:00 Key quant factors to watch43:00 ETF grading and hidden exposures46:00 The 60/40 portfolio and asset allocation51:00 U.S. vs Europe and innovation advantage55:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today's “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather's Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narrative collapse can turn small defaults into systemic crises. He and Matt Zeigler explore what's really happening beneath the surface of private markets, how common knowledge shifts shape investor behavior, and how Perscient Pro's “storyboards” and “semantic signatures” help track the narratives driving markets in real time.Main topics coveredWhy Ben believes we're at a “trust-breaking” moment similar to 2007The Godfather analogy and what frauds reveal about human behaviorHow private credit has evolved into today's “shadow banking” systemFlow machines, hidden leverage, and why opacity is intentionalThe dangers of informational asymmetry between investors and lendersHow broken trust creates chain reactions in financial systemsThe link between narrative collapse and liquidity crisesCommon knowledge, crowd reactions, and market psychologyDoom loops between Wall Street and the real economyHow Perscient Pro tracks financial narratives using semantic signaturesWhy gold's current rally is about safety, not debasementWhat investors should monitor next in credit, housing, and macro narrativesTimestamps0:00 Hidden leverage and the trust problem1:04 Introduction to Ben Hunt and Epsilon Theory2:12 The Tessio analogy – betrayal and the structure of fraud6:10 How private credit became today's shadow banking system10:55 Flow machines and why opacity is intentional14:48 Trust breaks and the “funding stops first” dynamic18:35 The Biden “common knowledge” moment explained21:00 What happens when narratives collapse24:26 Apollo, asymmetric information, and shorting First Brands28:00 Hidden leverage and the domino effects of default33:40 The “doom loop” between Wall Street and the real economy39:10 Why Silicon Valley Bank was different44:18 What a “run on Wall Street” could look like48:00 Perscient Pro and tracking financial storyboards53:32 Semantic signatures and narrative detection57:10 Housing, inflation, and gold storyboards1:00:48 Where to follow Ben Hunt and learn more about Perscient Pro

In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we're still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, and what it means for investors. The conversation also covers how companies like Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Meta fit into this AI cycle, the energy demands of AI, and the future of AI-driven investing through Intelligent Alpha and its GPT ETF.Topics covered:• Why Gene and Doug believe AI represents a once-in-a-generation wealth creation opportunity• How AI may impact corporate profitability and hiring trends• The political and social dynamics slowing AI adoption• Doug's “detective, people-pleaser, and tastemaker” framework for future human jobs• How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to manage portfolios• The advantages of AI-driven investment models over humans• Economic and market implications of an AI productivity boom• The hardware-data-application structure of technological cycles• The role of energy, especially nuclear and solar, in supporting AI growth• The competitive race among model providers like OpenAI, Google, and Meta• Apple's long-term AI positioning and potential comeback• Tesla's valuation, autonomy vision, and the future of robotics• The inevitability and function of bubbles in breakthrough technologies• The rise of private markets and retail investor access to innovation• Future frontiers in quantum computing and biotechnologyTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and Deepwater's AI thesis03:00 Why AI marks a multi-year bull market opportunity08:00 Political reality and limits of AI deployment11:00 The future of human work: detectives, people-pleasers, tastemakers16:00 Inside Intelligent Alpha and the GPT ETF19:00 Why AI can outperform human managers25:00 How AI affects productivity, margins, and employment26:00 Hardware, data, and application cycle in AI28:00 The energy constraint: nuclear, gas, and solar29:30 The model race: OpenAI, Google, Meta34:00 Apple's role and long-term AI potential39:30 Tesla, autonomy, and long-term disruption44:00 Are bubbles necessary for technological revolutions?49:00 Private vs. public investing in innovation51:00 Beyond AI: quantum computing and life extension technologies54:45 Closing thoughts

Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett's Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett's real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan's trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets.Main topics covered:• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett's approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength• Why Buffett's General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces• Lessons from Buffett's Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d'œil), and character in long-term investing• Charlie Munger's blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire HathawayTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and overview of Tobias Carlisle's key ideas02:00 Applying Sun Tzu's “invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength” to Buffett06:00 The General Re acquisition as a defensive masterpiece12:00 Victory without conflict — Buffett's Apple investment19:00 The principle of via negativa and avoiding ruin22:00 Survival, temperament, and controlling emotion in investing25:00 Circle of competence and the power of simplicity28:00 Sins of omission vs. sins of commission32:00 Temperament, intellect, and avoiding self-defeat40:00 Wu wei and investing with effortless alignment49:00 Position sizing, concentration, and the Kelly Criterion50:00 Buffett's investments in Japan's trading houses56:00 Reputation, intuition, and the power of pattern recognition61:00 Charlie Munger's blueprint and Buffett's strategic genius64:00 Closing thoughts and where to find Tobias online

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk management. From his early days in the Turtle Trading program to running Chesapeake Capital today, Jerry explains what it takes to survive and thrive as a systematic trader in an uncertain world.Topics covered:• The origins of the Turtle Trading program and what Jerry learned from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt• How trend following has evolved from short-term to longer-term systems• Why trading psychology is harder than following the rules• The role of discomfort and doing “hard things” in successful investing• The design and diversification of a robust trading universe• Risk management, drawdowns, and letting profits run• Why trend following belongs alongside a 60/40 portfolio• How ETFs are expanding access to managed futures strategies• Incorporating crypto and new markets into trend following systems• The internal truths of trend following and why smooth returns can be dangerousTimestamps:00:00 Trading should be hard02:00 The origins of the Turtle Trading program08:00 Evolution of trend following systems12:00 The psychology of following rules16:00 The famous Turtle Trader true/false test20:00 Could the Turtle program work today?23:00 Building a diversified trading universe28:00 Risk management and position sizing32:00 How trend following complements 60/40 portfolios38:00 Managed futures, stocks, and diversification41:00 The rise of trend-following ETFs45:00 Incorporating crypto and futures48:00 Where the strongest trends are now52:00 AI and systematic investing53:30 The internal truths of trend following56:00 The belief Jerry holds that most investors would disagree with

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Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we've entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it's changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal.Main topics covered• The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime• Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal• Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic• The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today• Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis”• How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again• Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further• Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend• Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world• AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation• What could ultimately break the debasement regimeTimestamps00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook16:42 The labor market's “malignant stasis” and what it signals21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,00038:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations45:08 Gold's breakout and how to manage the position50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era54:32 AI's potential to reshape productivity and demographics57:13 What could end the debasement regime59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals

Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today's macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction.Topics covered:Systematic vs. discretionary macro investingAndy's Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flowsHow AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stopsTariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growthThe Fed's independence and what it means for marketsRisk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environmentsHow major flows and corporate buybacks shape market directionWhy Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomesTimestamps:00:00 Intro and setup02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt01:00:00 What Andy's watching next01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital

In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today's volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we're in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI's uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he's long everything not tied to the U.S.Topics covered:The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottomsWhy this may be the best macro environment in 40 yearsThe policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollarPositioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assetsHow Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his processThe dollar's impact on equity and sector leadershipInflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenonWhy AI's economic impact will take longer than expectedThe probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenariosFiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repressionWhy bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equitiesLessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”Timestamps:00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market's fragility26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end.Main topics covered:• The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum• The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process• Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction• Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase• Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples• Trends in financials and what's driving sector rotations• Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning• The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration• Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar• How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving• Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-endTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning29:00 Financials and recent weakness31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration37:00 Gold's breakout and sell discipline using technicals41:00 Oil's setup and resistance levels43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis46:20 The dollar index and its key levels48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds51:10 Final takeaways and closing

In this episode of Excess Returns, we're joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem.Topics covered:How AI is driving a new era of electricity demandThe evolving U.S. energy mix: oil, gas, nuclear, and renewablesWhy electricity is becoming the new oilThe scale of power needed to support AI and data centersOpportunities and challenges in renewables and battery storageThe resurgence of nuclear and the role of natural gasHow U.S. shale transformed inflation and global energy marketsEnergy infrastructure and why it offers steady returnsHow the TCAI ETF captures the “AI infrastructure” opportunityRisks and resilience of the U.S. power gridLessons from 30 years investing in energyTimestamps:00:00 Electricity is the new oil and the future of AI energy demand02:00 The evolving U.S. energy mix and global demand growth08:00 Why electricity, not oil, will power the next economic era11:00 How much power AI and data centers will need15:00 Can renewables meet rising energy demand?20:00 The comeback of nuclear and its challenges25:00 How U.S. shale changed global energy and inflation32:00 Why energy infrastructure is less volatile than commodities36:00 Inside Tortoise's new AI infrastructure ETF (TCAI)43:00 The rise of digital and electricity infrastructure plays45:00 How Tortoise evaluates investments and valuations49:00 The resilience and future expansion of the U.S. grid52:00 Closing lessons: contrarian investing and energy's importance

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing's most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money periods, family wealth stewardship, and how to think about value versus price in a noisy world.Topics covered:• The “cheapest dentist” analogy and why investors chase bargains• The three phases of investor evolution: cheap, good, and exceptional• Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Graham on paying up for quality• How to hold through drawdowns and dead money periods• Why patience and conviction are the hardest investing skills• Frugality, compounding, and lessons from his grandmother• How long-term family investors think about wealth and stewardship• The difference between price and value in modern markets• How to know when cheap is too cheap and quality is worth paying for• Why great investments are often simple to explain• The story behind his Wall Street Journal essay “The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investments”Timestamps:00:00 Introduction – The cheapest dentist analogy03:00 Why investors love cheap stocks07:00 The evolution from bargain hunter to quality investor09:00 Examples from Ben Graham, Buffett, and Facebook15:30 Conviction, drawdowns, and dead money19:00 Judging success by business progress, not stock price27:00 Lessons from grandma on value and frugality31:00 How Buffett evolved from cheap to quality45:00 Investing for future generations49:00 Invisible wealth and stewardship52:00 The value investor dilemma58:00 Equal-weight vs market-cap indexes59:00 Lessons for the average investor1:02:00 How much research you really need1:04:30 How his WSJ essay came to life and final takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today's markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns.Topics covered:Matt's journey from engineering to investingLessons learned at DFA and the foundation of evidence-based investingDefining factors and what makes them credibleThe role of value, momentum, quality, and size in portfoliosThe challenges of intangibles and redefining valueLarge cap tech dominance, mean reversion, and whether the world has changedFactor timing, valuation spreads, and Cliff Asness' “sin” frameworkHow momentum can be integrated with value tiltsPortfolio construction: combining factors vs sleeve approachesImplementation challenges for large vs small managersHow Longview manages liquidity, turnover, and trading costsThe potential impact of AI on factor investingFuture opportunities in implementation alpha and ETF designMatt's biggest investing belief most peers disagree withThe key lesson he would teach the average investorTimestamps:00:00 Value vs returns and factor investing basics03:00 From engineering and Boeing to investing06:15 Time at DFA and lessons in evidence-based investing07:30 What evidence-based investing really means09:25 Defining factors and what makes them valid12:00 Using value, profitability, size, and momentum16:00 Large cap tech dominance and future returns18:00 Mean reversion and whether the world has changed20:00 How long does value need to struggle before it's “dead”?22:30 Should value be redefined for intangibles?25:30 Intangibles, R&D, and why adjustments add noise27:00 Value's performance across economic cycles and migration30:00 Interest rates, growth, and value performance32:00 Factor timing and valuation spreads34:15 The role of momentum in timing and implementation35:00 How Longview applies passive-aggressive tilts36:30 Combining factors vs sleeve approaches39:00 How momentum is used in practice41:30 Factor migration and average holding periods43:00 The size premium and whether it still exists44:30 The benefits of being nimble vs large fund families47:30 Liquidity challenges in small cap value52:00 The role of AI in investing54:00 Where implementation adds the most alpha55:30 One belief Matt holds that peers may disagree with57:20 The one lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we're joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading.Topics covered:Noel's background: biochemistry, military, market making, HFT, hedge fund launchHow markets have evolved since the 1990sWhy volatility is the best source of market informationRegime shift modeling and its role in strategy selectionUsing options for income and the trade-offs investors should understandVolatility harvesting and risk-defined short vol strategiesThe impact of zero DTE options on marketsDispersion trading and correlation dynamicsBond vol arbitrage and volatility surfacesOpportunistic trades like GameStop and meme stocksTail hedging, its costs, and how to monetize hedgesLessons on flexibility, risk, and never being married to positionsTimestamps:00:00 Intro and Noel's unique background06:00 How markets have changed behind the scenes07:00 Why volatility is the best information source09:00 Regime shift model explained19:00 Using options for income – benefits and risks24:30 Volatility harvesting strategies29:10 What the VIX does (and doesn't) tell you30:30 Zero DTE options and systemic risk33:20 Dispersion trading explained42:00 Bond vol arbitrage45:00 Opportunistic trades: GameStop and beyond51:30 Tail hedging and rebalancing54:30 Lessons on flexibility and risk management

In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he's learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles.Topics covered in this episode:Why market valuations are harder to use today than in the pastThe impact of buybacks, margins, and technology on long-term comparisonsMarket concentration and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocksPassive investing flows, investor behavior, and government backstopsHow AI compares to past technological innovations and its investment implicationsValue versus growth cycles and why U.S. tech has broken historical normsThe lessons of the NASDAQ since 2000 and defining the long term for investorsPersonal experiences from the 2008 financial crisis and the power of compoundingDiversification, gold's surprising performance, and the case for international investingTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and market valuations06:00 Structural changes and the role of buybacks09:00 Margins, efficiency, and corporate dominance12:00 Market concentration and the rise of mega-cap tech14:00 Passive investing and household stock ownership18:00 Government backstops and market resilience23:00 Valuations as expectations vs. predictions25:00 AI boom and capital allocation29:00 Is this 1996 or 1999? Bubble comparisons32:00 How AI may reshape investing and daily life41:00 Investing in breakthrough technologies43:00 Value versus growth cycles in the U.S. and abroad46:00 Lessons from the NASDAQ and defining long-term investing49:00 Compounding lessons from the 2008 financial crisis53:00 Diversification, gold, and international performance