Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concentration risk to ETFs, managed futures, AI, and long-term discipline.Topics covered:The four historical periods of 15%+ annualized stock market returns and what followedWhy current U.S. valuations don't necessarily mean an immediate crashHow global value stocks are now outperforming the S&P 500The role of international diversification and real assets in portfoliosTrend following and managed futures as the “premier diversifiers”The benefits of blending trend and valuation-based strategiesThe permanent portfolio and how managed futures enhance itConcentration risk in U.S. equities and what history teaches about market leadershipThe parallels (and limits) between today's market and the dot-com bubbleAI's potential role in investing and portfolio managementThe behavioral traps around performance chasing and when to sellLessons from launching and running ETFs and the 351 exchange structure for tax efficiencyThe future of markets, retail investors, and Meb's upcoming book “Time Billionaires”Timestamps:00:00 Intro and market performance context04:00 Are U.S. valuations permanently higher?09:00 The spectrum of future returns and investor playbook12:00 International and value investing opportunities15:00 Trend following and managed futures19:00 The permanent portfolio and diversification25:00 Concentration risk and market structure28:00 AI's impact on investing32:00 Comparing today's market to the dot-com bubble37:00 The long-term case for value investing41:00 When to sell and investor behavior45:00 Lessons from running ETFs and industry evolution51:00 Understanding 351 exchanges and tax-efficient investing57:00 What's changed most for investors over 20 years59:00 Meb's new book “Time Billionaires” and closing thoughts

Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he's maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor.Topics covered:Data-driven investing and the “control the controllables” frameworkWhy the U.S. consumer remains resilientInflation outlook and how sticky prices impact portfoliosThe Fed's next moves and what investors should watchGlobal diversification and the case for international stocksHow to think about inflation protection and real assetsThe diffusion of AI and separating winners from pretendersMarket concentration, valuations, and managing riskLife lessons from a CIO: discipline, process, and informed decision-makingTimestamps:00:00 Introduction03:00 Controlling the controllables06:00 Why Eric remains optimistic on the economy10:00 How portfolio decisions flow through US Bank15:00 Data-driven insights vs. gut feel18:00 Consumer strength and scorecard22:40 Inflation outlook and Fed challenges30:00 Bond market risk and the “Brazilian steakhouse” analogy34:00 Global competition and diversification38:00 Inflation protection and real assets41:30 The reality of AI and productivity47:00 Market concentration and the Mag 752:00 Valuations and long-term returns55:45 Lessons for investors

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor's education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, international diversification, and the right withdrawal rates in retirement.Topics covered:Why macro forecasting rarely works as a long-term investment strategyThe four stages of the index investor's education: darkness, enlightenment, complexity, and simplicityHow financial advisors and Wall Street profit from unnecessary complexityThe case for international diversification and how to size it correctlyThe pros and cons of factor investing and why behavioral discipline matters more than factors themselvesWhy passive investing isn't “too big” and why indexing works over timeHow to think about valuations and investor psychologyTips, gold, and how to think about inflation protectionRethinking the 4% withdrawal rule and why goals for heirs matter more than formulasThe one piece of advice Rick would give to young investors todayTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and the four stages of an index investor03:00 Why macro forecasting fails as an investment tool07:00 The evolution from complexity to simplicity13:00 Complexity as job security for advisors18:00 Should investors own international stocks?23:00 The behavioral challenge of factor investing32:00 Is passive investing too big?34:00 What to do (and not do) with market valuations37:00 Managing investor behavior through small adjustments39:00 Inflation, TIPS, and the role of gold46:00 Why indexing works and what makes it unbeatable49:00 The 4% rule and smarter withdrawal strategies57:00 Advice for young investors and what Rick wants his legacy to be

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection on human capital, autonomy, and the behavioral side of markets.Topics covered:How liquidity replaced fundamentals as the market's main driverWhy investors must adapt to desynchronized global cyclesThe impact of debt, fiscal dominance, and government policy on marketsHousing as the next driver of the business cycleHow AI, robotics, and quantum computing are shaping the next growth waveThe maturation of crypto and what comes after the “altcoin season”Why narratives now drive price and how to read them effectivelyThe risks and opportunities in trading liquidity and fiscal policyThe cognitive and behavioral shifts driving modern investingProtecting human capital in the age of AI and automationTimestamps:00:00 Liquidity and the end of fundamentals06:17 Three continents, three policies, one fractured world12:20 Housing as the next driver of the cycle16:39 Crypto's evolution and fiscal dominance23:26 Portfolio positioning in a policy-driven market29:44 AI, human capital, and the risk to autonomy36:00 How narratives shape markets and investment themes52:00 Building a macro narrative and market framework58:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk premium. The conversation blends timeless investing wisdom with today's most important macro themes.Main topics covered:Why forecasts don't work and what investors should do insteadThe real economic risks of tariffs and immigration restrictionsHow AI may (or may not) impact productivity and market winnersHow to build anti-fragile portfolios around macro risksWhen and how to “sin a little” on bond duration and valuationLessons from past tech booms and investor overconfidenceThe 4% of stocks that drive all long-term equity returnsThe risks of concentration in the S&P 500Hidden costs of passive investing and large index fundsWhen index and factor funds get too big to trade efficientlyValue investing, interest rates, and inflation relationshipsThe evidence on simple value strategies like Piotroski and Magic FormulaHow to think about growth exposure using quality and low volatilityThe opportunities and dangers of private credit and interval fundsWhy illiquidity premiums exist and how to capture them prudentlyBehavioral discipline, diversification, and long-term compounding lessonsTimestamps:00:00 Forecasting failures and market humility03:30 Why Larry doesn't make macro predictions07:00 The real impact of tariffs and immigration on inflation and growth11:00 AI, productivity, and the question of who the real winners will be14:40 How to manage duration risk and “sin a little”18:00 Investor overconfidence and lessons from past tech booms21:00 Why only 4% of stocks explain all equity returns24:00 Market concentration and S&P 500 risk28:30 Why diversification still matters30:00 The hidden trading costs of index and factor funds38:00 How big fund size changes execution and exposure41:00 Is passive investing too big?42:30 Value vs growth and interest rate relationships45:00 Evidence on simple value strategies and Buffett's alpha51:00 Factor diversification and one-over-N strategy54:00 Private credit: opportunity and risks58:00 Illiquidity premiums and fund structure concerns01:00:00 Behavioral discipline, patience, and staying diversified

Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time.Main topics covered:Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of marketsThe case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longerThe key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemploymentComparing today's market to the dot-com eraWhy traditional recession indicators have failedHow COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronizationInflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watchingWhy valuation is a broken signal for stock pickingThe quant factors that matter most todayETF factor exposures and hidden risksHow to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private marketsWhy U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity marketKey lessons and philosophies for long-term investorsTimestamps:00:00 What really drives equity investing03:00 Adam Parker's background and multi-lens approach05:00 Why he's long-term bullish and sees S&P 10,00008:00 Structural margin expansion and AI productivity09:00 The three major bear cases14:00 How today compares to the 1990s tech bubble18:00 Why the economy has stayed resilient20:00 COVID's impact on business cycles23:00 Market structure, inventory, and margins24:00 Inflation, tariffs, and Fed outlook29:00 Deficits and why timing macro risks is hard32:00 Large vs small cap dynamics37:00 Why valuation doesn't work41:00 Key quant factors to watch43:00 ETF grading and hidden exposures46:00 The 60/40 portfolio and asset allocation51:00 U.S. vs Europe and innovation advantage55:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today's “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather's Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narrative collapse can turn small defaults into systemic crises. He and Matt Zeigler explore what's really happening beneath the surface of private markets, how common knowledge shifts shape investor behavior, and how Perscient Pro's “storyboards” and “semantic signatures” help track the narratives driving markets in real time.Main topics coveredWhy Ben believes we're at a “trust-breaking” moment similar to 2007The Godfather analogy and what frauds reveal about human behaviorHow private credit has evolved into today's “shadow banking” systemFlow machines, hidden leverage, and why opacity is intentionalThe dangers of informational asymmetry between investors and lendersHow broken trust creates chain reactions in financial systemsThe link between narrative collapse and liquidity crisesCommon knowledge, crowd reactions, and market psychologyDoom loops between Wall Street and the real economyHow Perscient Pro tracks financial narratives using semantic signaturesWhy gold's current rally is about safety, not debasementWhat investors should monitor next in credit, housing, and macro narrativesTimestamps0:00 Hidden leverage and the trust problem1:04 Introduction to Ben Hunt and Epsilon Theory2:12 The Tessio analogy – betrayal and the structure of fraud6:10 How private credit became today's shadow banking system10:55 Flow machines and why opacity is intentional14:48 Trust breaks and the “funding stops first” dynamic18:35 The Biden “common knowledge” moment explained21:00 What happens when narratives collapse24:26 Apollo, asymmetric information, and shorting First Brands28:00 Hidden leverage and the domino effects of default33:40 The “doom loop” between Wall Street and the real economy39:10 Why Silicon Valley Bank was different44:18 What a “run on Wall Street” could look like48:00 Perscient Pro and tracking financial storyboards53:32 Semantic signatures and narrative detection57:10 Housing, inflation, and gold storyboards1:00:48 Where to follow Ben Hunt and learn more about Perscient Pro

In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we're still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, and what it means for investors. The conversation also covers how companies like Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Meta fit into this AI cycle, the energy demands of AI, and the future of AI-driven investing through Intelligent Alpha and its GPT ETF.Topics covered:• Why Gene and Doug believe AI represents a once-in-a-generation wealth creation opportunity• How AI may impact corporate profitability and hiring trends• The political and social dynamics slowing AI adoption• Doug's “detective, people-pleaser, and tastemaker” framework for future human jobs• How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to manage portfolios• The advantages of AI-driven investment models over humans• Economic and market implications of an AI productivity boom• The hardware-data-application structure of technological cycles• The role of energy, especially nuclear and solar, in supporting AI growth• The competitive race among model providers like OpenAI, Google, and Meta• Apple's long-term AI positioning and potential comeback• Tesla's valuation, autonomy vision, and the future of robotics• The inevitability and function of bubbles in breakthrough technologies• The rise of private markets and retail investor access to innovation• Future frontiers in quantum computing and biotechnologyTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and Deepwater's AI thesis03:00 Why AI marks a multi-year bull market opportunity08:00 Political reality and limits of AI deployment11:00 The future of human work: detectives, people-pleasers, tastemakers16:00 Inside Intelligent Alpha and the GPT ETF19:00 Why AI can outperform human managers25:00 How AI affects productivity, margins, and employment26:00 Hardware, data, and application cycle in AI28:00 The energy constraint: nuclear, gas, and solar29:30 The model race: OpenAI, Google, Meta34:00 Apple's role and long-term AI potential39:30 Tesla, autonomy, and long-term disruption44:00 Are bubbles necessary for technological revolutions?49:00 Private vs. public investing in innovation51:00 Beyond AI: quantum computing and life extension technologies54:45 Closing thoughts

Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett's Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett's real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan's trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets.Main topics covered:• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett's approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength• Why Buffett's General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces• Lessons from Buffett's Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d'œil), and character in long-term investing• Charlie Munger's blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire HathawayTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and overview of Tobias Carlisle's key ideas02:00 Applying Sun Tzu's “invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength” to Buffett06:00 The General Re acquisition as a defensive masterpiece12:00 Victory without conflict — Buffett's Apple investment19:00 The principle of via negativa and avoiding ruin22:00 Survival, temperament, and controlling emotion in investing25:00 Circle of competence and the power of simplicity28:00 Sins of omission vs. sins of commission32:00 Temperament, intellect, and avoiding self-defeat40:00 Wu wei and investing with effortless alignment49:00 Position sizing, concentration, and the Kelly Criterion50:00 Buffett's investments in Japan's trading houses56:00 Reputation, intuition, and the power of pattern recognition61:00 Charlie Munger's blueprint and Buffett's strategic genius64:00 Closing thoughts and where to find Tobias online

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk management. From his early days in the Turtle Trading program to running Chesapeake Capital today, Jerry explains what it takes to survive and thrive as a systematic trader in an uncertain world.Topics covered:• The origins of the Turtle Trading program and what Jerry learned from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt• How trend following has evolved from short-term to longer-term systems• Why trading psychology is harder than following the rules• The role of discomfort and doing “hard things” in successful investing• The design and diversification of a robust trading universe• Risk management, drawdowns, and letting profits run• Why trend following belongs alongside a 60/40 portfolio• How ETFs are expanding access to managed futures strategies• Incorporating crypto and new markets into trend following systems• The internal truths of trend following and why smooth returns can be dangerousTimestamps:00:00 Trading should be hard02:00 The origins of the Turtle Trading program08:00 Evolution of trend following systems12:00 The psychology of following rules16:00 The famous Turtle Trader true/false test20:00 Could the Turtle program work today?23:00 Building a diversified trading universe28:00 Risk management and position sizing32:00 How trend following complements 60/40 portfolios38:00 Managed futures, stocks, and diversification41:00 The rise of trend-following ETFs45:00 Incorporating crypto and futures48:00 Where the strongest trends are now52:00 AI and systematic investing53:30 The internal truths of trend following56:00 The belief Jerry holds that most investors would disagree with

Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ifeSubscribe on Apple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003Subscribe on YouTubehttps://youtube.com/@excessreturns

Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we've entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it's changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal.Main topics covered• The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime• Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal• Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic• The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today• Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis”• How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again• Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further• Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend• Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world• AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation• What could ultimately break the debasement regimeTimestamps00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook16:42 The labor market's “malignant stasis” and what it signals21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,00038:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations45:08 Gold's breakout and how to manage the position50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era54:32 AI's potential to reshape productivity and demographics57:13 What could end the debasement regime59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals

Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today's macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction.Topics covered:Systematic vs. discretionary macro investingAndy's Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flowsHow AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stopsTariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growthThe Fed's independence and what it means for marketsRisk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environmentsHow major flows and corporate buybacks shape market directionWhy Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomesTimestamps:00:00 Intro and setup02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt01:00:00 What Andy's watching next01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital

In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today's volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we're in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI's uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he's long everything not tied to the U.S.Topics covered:The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottomsWhy this may be the best macro environment in 40 yearsThe policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollarPositioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assetsHow Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his processThe dollar's impact on equity and sector leadershipInflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenonWhy AI's economic impact will take longer than expectedThe probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenariosFiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repressionWhy bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equitiesLessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”Timestamps:00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market's fragility26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end.Main topics covered:• The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum• The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process• Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction• Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase• Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples• Trends in financials and what's driving sector rotations• Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning• The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration• Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar• How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving• Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-endTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning29:00 Financials and recent weakness31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration37:00 Gold's breakout and sell discipline using technicals41:00 Oil's setup and resistance levels43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis46:20 The dollar index and its key levels48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds51:10 Final takeaways and closing

In this episode of Excess Returns, we're joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem.Topics covered:How AI is driving a new era of electricity demandThe evolving U.S. energy mix: oil, gas, nuclear, and renewablesWhy electricity is becoming the new oilThe scale of power needed to support AI and data centersOpportunities and challenges in renewables and battery storageThe resurgence of nuclear and the role of natural gasHow U.S. shale transformed inflation and global energy marketsEnergy infrastructure and why it offers steady returnsHow the TCAI ETF captures the “AI infrastructure” opportunityRisks and resilience of the U.S. power gridLessons from 30 years investing in energyTimestamps:00:00 Electricity is the new oil and the future of AI energy demand02:00 The evolving U.S. energy mix and global demand growth08:00 Why electricity, not oil, will power the next economic era11:00 How much power AI and data centers will need15:00 Can renewables meet rising energy demand?20:00 The comeback of nuclear and its challenges25:00 How U.S. shale changed global energy and inflation32:00 Why energy infrastructure is less volatile than commodities36:00 Inside Tortoise's new AI infrastructure ETF (TCAI)43:00 The rise of digital and electricity infrastructure plays45:00 How Tortoise evaluates investments and valuations49:00 The resilience and future expansion of the U.S. grid52:00 Closing lessons: contrarian investing and energy's importance

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing's most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money periods, family wealth stewardship, and how to think about value versus price in a noisy world.Topics covered:• The “cheapest dentist” analogy and why investors chase bargains• The three phases of investor evolution: cheap, good, and exceptional• Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Graham on paying up for quality• How to hold through drawdowns and dead money periods• Why patience and conviction are the hardest investing skills• Frugality, compounding, and lessons from his grandmother• How long-term family investors think about wealth and stewardship• The difference between price and value in modern markets• How to know when cheap is too cheap and quality is worth paying for• Why great investments are often simple to explain• The story behind his Wall Street Journal essay “The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investments”Timestamps:00:00 Introduction – The cheapest dentist analogy03:00 Why investors love cheap stocks07:00 The evolution from bargain hunter to quality investor09:00 Examples from Ben Graham, Buffett, and Facebook15:30 Conviction, drawdowns, and dead money19:00 Judging success by business progress, not stock price27:00 Lessons from grandma on value and frugality31:00 How Buffett evolved from cheap to quality45:00 Investing for future generations49:00 Invisible wealth and stewardship52:00 The value investor dilemma58:00 Equal-weight vs market-cap indexes59:00 Lessons for the average investor1:02:00 How much research you really need1:04:30 How his WSJ essay came to life and final takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today's markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns.Topics covered:Matt's journey from engineering to investingLessons learned at DFA and the foundation of evidence-based investingDefining factors and what makes them credibleThe role of value, momentum, quality, and size in portfoliosThe challenges of intangibles and redefining valueLarge cap tech dominance, mean reversion, and whether the world has changedFactor timing, valuation spreads, and Cliff Asness' “sin” frameworkHow momentum can be integrated with value tiltsPortfolio construction: combining factors vs sleeve approachesImplementation challenges for large vs small managersHow Longview manages liquidity, turnover, and trading costsThe potential impact of AI on factor investingFuture opportunities in implementation alpha and ETF designMatt's biggest investing belief most peers disagree withThe key lesson he would teach the average investorTimestamps:00:00 Value vs returns and factor investing basics03:00 From engineering and Boeing to investing06:15 Time at DFA and lessons in evidence-based investing07:30 What evidence-based investing really means09:25 Defining factors and what makes them valid12:00 Using value, profitability, size, and momentum16:00 Large cap tech dominance and future returns18:00 Mean reversion and whether the world has changed20:00 How long does value need to struggle before it's “dead”?22:30 Should value be redefined for intangibles?25:30 Intangibles, R&D, and why adjustments add noise27:00 Value's performance across economic cycles and migration30:00 Interest rates, growth, and value performance32:00 Factor timing and valuation spreads34:15 The role of momentum in timing and implementation35:00 How Longview applies passive-aggressive tilts36:30 Combining factors vs sleeve approaches39:00 How momentum is used in practice41:30 Factor migration and average holding periods43:00 The size premium and whether it still exists44:30 The benefits of being nimble vs large fund families47:30 Liquidity challenges in small cap value52:00 The role of AI in investing54:00 Where implementation adds the most alpha55:30 One belief Matt holds that peers may disagree with57:20 The one lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we're joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading.Topics covered:Noel's background: biochemistry, military, market making, HFT, hedge fund launchHow markets have evolved since the 1990sWhy volatility is the best source of market informationRegime shift modeling and its role in strategy selectionUsing options for income and the trade-offs investors should understandVolatility harvesting and risk-defined short vol strategiesThe impact of zero DTE options on marketsDispersion trading and correlation dynamicsBond vol arbitrage and volatility surfacesOpportunistic trades like GameStop and meme stocksTail hedging, its costs, and how to monetize hedgesLessons on flexibility, risk, and never being married to positionsTimestamps:00:00 Intro and Noel's unique background06:00 How markets have changed behind the scenes07:00 Why volatility is the best information source09:00 Regime shift model explained19:00 Using options for income – benefits and risks24:30 Volatility harvesting strategies29:10 What the VIX does (and doesn't) tell you30:30 Zero DTE options and systemic risk33:20 Dispersion trading explained42:00 Bond vol arbitrage45:00 Opportunistic trades: GameStop and beyond51:30 Tail hedging and rebalancing54:30 Lessons on flexibility and risk management

In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he's learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles.Topics covered in this episode:Why market valuations are harder to use today than in the pastThe impact of buybacks, margins, and technology on long-term comparisonsMarket concentration and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocksPassive investing flows, investor behavior, and government backstopsHow AI compares to past technological innovations and its investment implicationsValue versus growth cycles and why U.S. tech has broken historical normsThe lessons of the NASDAQ since 2000 and defining the long term for investorsPersonal experiences from the 2008 financial crisis and the power of compoundingDiversification, gold's surprising performance, and the case for international investingTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and market valuations06:00 Structural changes and the role of buybacks09:00 Margins, efficiency, and corporate dominance12:00 Market concentration and the rise of mega-cap tech14:00 Passive investing and household stock ownership18:00 Government backstops and market resilience23:00 Valuations as expectations vs. predictions25:00 AI boom and capital allocation29:00 Is this 1996 or 1999? Bubble comparisons32:00 How AI may reshape investing and daily life41:00 Investing in breakthrough technologies43:00 Value versus growth cycles in the U.S. and abroad46:00 Lessons from the NASDAQ and defining long-term investing49:00 Compounding lessons from the 2008 financial crisis53:00 Diversification, gold, and international performance

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves.Topics covered in the episode:The job market's pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisionsWhy recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systemsThe narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cyclesInvestor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability modelsHow easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growthWhat “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOsThe disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measuresGold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today's environmentThe impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectationsValuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiplesTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and market overview02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks09:00 Bull market without normal supports17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies23:55 Confidence and the misery index29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy34:00 Broadening of market participation37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields45:10 The role of gold in portfolios50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he believes large-cap growth and technology will continue to lead in the years ahead.Main topics covered:John's path from personal investing to launching an ETFLessons learned from early stock picks and market-making experienceThe power of low marginal cost businesses and long-term compoundingHow AI is reshaping software development, innovation, and profitabilityThe importance of revenue and earnings growth in stock selectionDigital toll booths as the future of software business modelsDifferences between profitable vs. unprofitable growth companiesWhy technology leadership today differs from the dot-com eraThe role of sectors, valuation, and position sizing in portfolio constructionJohn's views on growth vs. value, large-cap vs. small-cap, and future innovation trendsTimestamps:00:00 The riskiest thing in investing02:00 John's background and early investing journey05:00 Lessons from Apple, Boeing, Visa, and Potash10:00 Insights from agriculture and value investing12:00 AI's impact on software development and innovation16:00 Sectors, classifications, and thematic approaches18:00 Comparing AI disruption to past bubbles21:00 Profitability in today's tech companies22:00 Will the top companies stay dominant?26:00 Large-cap vs. small-cap technology investing28:00 Growth vs. value in today's market30:00 Demographics, Buffett's lessons, and sector shifts34:00 Value vs. software companies35:00 Digital toll booths explained37:00 Growth sustainability and digital infrastructure40:00 Semiconductor cycles and long-term demand44:00 Screening for growth and low marginal cost47:00 Sell discipline and valuation checks49:00 Position sizing and portfolio management51:00 ETF tax benefits and structure53:00 Where AOTG fits in portfolios54:00 One belief peers disagree with56:00 One lesson for the average investor57:00 Closing thoughts and outro

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the role of passive investing in today's markets.Main topics covered:How Joseph achieved long-term outperformance at TCW and what drove his resultsWhy recurring revenue and predictable cash flows are central to his approachThe importance of management quality and identifying “fanatics” vs. mercenariesLessons investors should and should not take from Warren BuffettBill Miller's influence and backing of Rainwater EquityCharacteristics Joseph looks for in great businesses and red flags in management teamsPortfolio concentration, position sizing, and risk managementWhy you don't need to have an opinion on every sectorSelling discipline and knowing when it's time to move onHow valuation fits into his framework and how he thinks about paying up for qualityThe impact of passive investing and why active managers must take a long-term viewStories and lessons from Peter Lynch, including his enduring influenceTimestamps:0:00 If a stock has doubled, you haven't missed it1:00 Introduction and Joseph's track record at TCW2:00 Keys to long-term outperformance8:00 Lessons from Warren Buffett's wins and mistakes11:30 Bill Miller's influence and support for Rainwater Equity14:00 What defines a high-quality business20:00 Free cash flow compounding and moats24:00 Red flags in management teams31:00 Why active management is broken and Joseph's solution35:00 Portfolio concentration and risk management42:00 Sectors to avoid and why47:00 Joseph's selling discipline53:00 Exceptional leaders and the role of management quality58:00 Valuation, future value, and the changing economy1:04:00 Passive investing and market distortions1:09:00 Lessons and stories from Peter Lynch1:14:00 Closing questions and key investing lessons1:20:00 Where to learn more about Joseph and Rainwater Equity

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today's market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal.Topics covered:• Why the long game is undefeated• Short-term volatility and how to prepare for it• The myth of average returns• Asymmetric upside in markets and stocks• AI as both opportunity and risk• Earnings as the ultimate driver of stock prices• Why valuations don't predict the next year• The role of uncertainty and hidden risks• Turnover and evolution within the stock market• Why the stock market isn't the economyTimestamps:00:00 Average returns are misleading02:00 Introducing Sam Ro02:15 Truth #1: The long game is undefeated08:40 Truth #2: You can get smoked in the short term14:20 Do markets have a government backstop?18:00 Truth #3: The myth of average returns23:00 Truth #4: Asymmetric upside28:00 AI as macro and micro driver33:00 Truth #5: Earnings drive stock prices36:30 Truth #6: Valuations won't tell you much about next year51:40 Truth #7: There will always be something to worry about55:20 Truth #8: The destabilizing risks are the ones people aren't talking about01:05:00 Truth #9: There's a lot of turnover in markets01:11:00 Truth #10: The stock market isn't the economy01:20:00 Closing thoughts

In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI's productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade's best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks through the risks she's watching, why facts change faster than narratives, and practical ways to connect top-down insights with bottom-up research.Topics coveredThe Perpetual Growth Machine: why needs spark innovation and growth, and how investors can spot it earlyWhy monopolies look great to investors but hurt long-term growth and innovationAI as a general purpose technology and the scale of potential productivity savingsHousing affordability, incomes, and policy bottlenecks through the PGM lensHow firms are actually adopting AI and how faster data changes research cadenceEurope's defense build-out and the rise of national champions and small-cap innovatorsInterpreting market concentration and what it signals about competitionInflation oscillation, policy mix, and why the Fed's tools have limitsTariffs as a regressive tax and how costs pass through to consumers over timeUS exceptionalism narrowing and why ex-US markets may lead in the coming cycleThe Draghi report and tearing down barriers inside the EU single marketComparing late-1990s tech to today's AI build-out and who the next leaders may beGrowth vs. value: focusing on sustained profit inflections, not cheapness aloneUsing stakeholder analysis to link macro themes to bottom-up stock workBiggest opportunities: Japan, Korea, Europe, select emerging markets, and parts of the Middle EastBiggest risk: a breakdown in the global order amid US-China tensionsClosing lessons: stay curious, stay nimble, question narratives, track the factsTimestamps00:00 Introduction and Olga's role at William Blair02:49 The Perpetual Growth Machine explained06:24 Policy bottlenecks, incentives, and growth09:32 AI as a general purpose technology and productivity math11:53 Practical AI adoption inside investment firms15:06 Where PGM points to opportunity right now16:26 Europe's defense spending and emerging winners19:02 Macro setup and consumer health20:42 Inflation today and what's changed under the hood22:46 The Fed's dilemma and limits of monetary policy25:00 Tariffs 101: who pays and how it shows up28:55 Early evidence in goods prices29:41 US exceptionalism vs. the rest of the world31:00 The Draghi report and a real EU single market33:11 Can Europe and others catch up in tech?36:15 EU financial services barriers and capital deployment37:07 Portfolio implications: why look ex-US39:10 Late-1990s tech vs. today's AI cycle41:20 Concentration risk and competition policy42:26 Value vs. growth through the PGM lens44:48 Base rates, sustaining growth, and churn at the top49:33 Marrying macro themes with bottom-up research51:08 Firsthand observation vs. headline narratives52:20 Biggest opportunities across regions53:00 Middle East changes and new listings54:48 Biggest risk: global order and US-China tensions55:36 Parting advice for investors

Ned Davis Research's Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR's “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold's secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You'll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim's timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible.Topics CoveredNDR's 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”)How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked outSecular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turnReading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could meanConcentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the worldWhere value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotationsGold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocationPractical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold“No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicatorsUsing historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from themTim's core lesson: you can't forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-drivenTimestamps (YouTube Chapters)00:00 Don't fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context)01:06 Intro and why NDR's process beats single charts02:58 NDR's 360° framework and composite models05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained13:04 What counts as a secular bear ('66–'82, 2000–'09)15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 202222:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 202224:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China's role in EM33:25 Gold's standout year—drivers and positioning36:16 Gold's secular and cyclical bull case37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 202549:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives53:41 Why independence matters53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he's learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets.Topics Covered:Why the Fed is becoming more political and what that means for marketsThe “re-acceleration that wasn't” and lessons from quickly abandoning tradesHow to structure trades like gold calls and TLT puts for asymmetric payoffFX as the “exhaust valve” for tariffs and global capital flowsCanada's housing bubble and CAD vulnerabilitiesInflation targeting, bond vigilantes, and the Fed's credibilityAvoiding the trap of perma-bearishness and using stop-losses as forced humilityThe importance of imagination in regime changes and Fed forecast errorsHow Brent is using LLMs and AI to trade headlines, structure trades, and analyze patternsTrading bubble names with options and risk-aware structuresLessons on flexibility, humility, and embracing uncertainty in marketsTimestamps:00:00 – Fed independence and political pressure02:00 – The failed “re-acceleration” thesis06:00 – Structuring gold calls and TLT puts14:00 – FX as the exhaust valve for tariffs20:50 – Canada's housing market and CAD risks26:30 – The Fed as a political institution32:40 – Inflation targeting and 3% as the new 2%35:20 – Avoiding perma-bear bias and using stop-losses42:00 – The Fed dinner story and the humility of wrong forecasts46:30 – Using LLMs and AI in trading53:00 – Shorting bubble names with call spreads56:00 – Cheat sheets and pattern recognition with AI59:30 – Lessons on flexibility and humility in trading1:02:15 – Closing thoughts and where to follow Brent

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio strategies.Topics CoveredWhy fears of a looming debt crisis may be misplacedInflation outlook, tariffs, and the Fed's “soft landing” challengeThe importance of Fed independence and risks of politicizationImmigration, demographics, and long-term disinflationary trendsHow AI is reshaping productivity, inequality, and the job marketDefined Duration Investing and asset-liability matchingLessons from all-weather strategies and the Permanent PortfolioCullen's “Forward Cap Portfolio” and future of global marketsTimestamps00:00 – Cullen on debt crisis fears02:32 – State of the U.S. economy post-COVID05:18 – Inflation, tariffs, and shelter costs10:25 – Soft landing vs. rolling recessions14:07 – The Fed's role and impossible job19:25 – National debt and Ray Dalio's crisis warning27:52 – AI boom and disinflationary forces31:01 – Immigration, demographics, and inflation37:23 – Aging population and wealth inequality43:00 – How AI impacts productivity and jobs52:00 – Defined Duration Investing explained1:01:34 – Portfolio strategies: Permanent Portfolio & risk parity1:03:54 – Cullen's “Forward Cap Portfolio”1:06:31 – Closing thoughts and future projects

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,healthcare's role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how hissystematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive. ### Topics Covered * Eric's unconventional career path: from Morgan Stanley andExxonMobil to founding 46Brooklyn and joining Band Creek * How personal experiences led him to tackle healthcaretransparency and drug pricing reform * The role of **information theory** in investing and thefoundation of Band Creek's systematic process * Building powerful data visualizations to understand labormarkets, inflation, and structural economic changes * Why healthcare dominates recent U.S. job growth and therisks of overreliance on one sector * The impact of immigration on labor force growth andstructural inflation * Key drivers of inflation and how to interpret CPI and PCEdata * How Band Creek applies systematic endurance and the KellyCriterion to equity selection * Sector exposures and lessons learned from applyingdata-driven models internationally * Eric's views on cognitive biases, why most investors can'treliably beat the market, and the power of data analysis

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cole Smead of Smead Capital for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, history, and the principles of value investing. Cole shares his perspectives on fiscal largesse, inflation, passive flows, energy markets, U.S. exceptionalism, and the timeless lessons of Buffett and Munger. His insights bridge economic history with today's market realities, giving investors a framework to think about risk, capital allocation, and opportunity costs.Deficits, monetary policy, and why recessions are hard to find todayInflation dynamics and lessons from the 1960s and 1970sThe U.S. government's role in markets (Intel stake, big government policies)American exceptionalism vs. global capital allocation improvementsEarnings quality and the divergence between accounting and economic profitsPassive investing flows, weak competition, and investor behaviorEnergy investing: from fracking bust to efficiency and capital disciplineComparing the AI boom with past manias and capital cyclesSmead Capital's investment process and evaluating “wonderful companies”Buffett, Munger, and the lessons of asset-light vs. capital-intensive businessesClosing insights: why returns on capital matter more than EPS or revenue00:00 – Opening quote and fiscal deficits02:00 – Debt, inflation, and recession risks08:50 – Government stake in Intel & big government era12:15 – U.S. exceptionalism and arrogance17:30 – Earnings quality erosion in U.S. businesses24:00 – Passive flows and human behavior27:30 – Opportunities in energy investing34:00 – Energy buildout vs. AI boom38:00 – Smead Capital's investment process44:00 – Lessons from Buffett and Munger51:00 – Standard closing question

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Schutte, CIO of Northwestern Mutual, to discuss the current macro landscape and what it means for investors. Brent shares his balanced perspective on the Fed, inflation, tariffs, concentration risk in markets, and why diversification may be more important now than ever. With over 30 years of investing experience, Brent provides valuable lessons from past cycles that help put today's environment in context.The Fed's dual mandate and why both inflation and unemployment risks matterHow tariffs could reshape growth and inflation dynamicsMarket concentration and the dominance of the Magnificent SevenLessons from past cycles (1999 tech bubble, 2007 commodities, Japan in the 1980s)The role of diversification, including small/mid caps, international equities, and commoditiesActive vs. passive investing and how to evaluate managersRecession signals, rolling recessions, and hidden economic weaknessWhy humility and balance are essential in portfolio construction00:00 – Introduction & importance of diversification02:00 – The Fed's mandate and tariffs' impact on growth & inflation07:30 – Reaction to Powell's Jackson Hole speech & Fed independence15:20 – Hidden recession, labor market signals & AI's economic role20:30 – Reliability of recession indicators post-COVID26:00 – Tariffs, uncertainty & risks for investors28:40 – Market concentration and the Magnificent Seven34:00 – Rethinking diversification: 60/40, commodities, and international exposure41:20 – Lessons from past market cycles (Japan, dot-com, China, commodities)45:15 – Passive flows, active management, and evaluating skill vs. luck50:00 – Government stakes in companies (Intel discussion)52:00 – Standard closing questions & final lessons

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle of Liquid Strategies to explore the rapidly growing world of option-based ETF strategies. With the rise of covered calls, buffered products, and hedged equity funds, it's more important than ever for investors to separate smart solutions from risky marketing gimmicks. Shawn and Eric break down how their firm approaches overlays, income generation, and downside protection in a way that helps advisors and investors achieve better long-term outcomes.The evolution of options in ETFs and why adoption has acceleratedCommon flaws in covered call strategies and the risks investors missHow Liquid Strategies uses option overlays to add return, income, and downside protectionThe “Swiss Army knife” approach to using put spreads for multiple portfolio goalsThe importance of timeframe in option strategies and the debate around 0DTEWhy “high yield” products often just return investor capitalUsing options for true risk management and hedging vs. cosmetic protectionHow Liquid Strategies structures its ETF suite and interval fundsWhere hedged equity and bond overlays can serve as ballast in portfoliosStandard closing lessons for investors on staying invested and balancing risk00:01 – Introduction to Liquid Strategies and option-based ETFs02:34 – The rise of options in portfolios and industry evolution05:29 – Flaws in common options strategies08:19 – Covered calls: why they often disappoint12:00 – Balancing upside, downside, and income in overlays15:31 – What overlay strategies really mean20:19 – The “Swiss Army knife” of selling put spreads24:09 – Why timeframe matters and 0DTE options debate28:56 – How rates and volatility impact option overlays32:59 – The importance of systematic but flexible processes36:46 – High yield traps and returning investor capital43:04 – Using options for hedging and risk management46:47 – How advisors incorporate overlays into portfolios48:54 – ETFs vs. interval funds explained54:26 – Where overlays fit in today's asset allocation57:55 – Closing lessons for investors

In this episode, Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives joins us to break down the state of the economy, the Fed's policy stance, inflation risks, and what's really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall.Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish dataHow fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growthWhy corporate profits outside the S&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strengthThe Fed's inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shiftsJim's case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectationsHistorical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they've been missingDivergence between S&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the marketStructural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earningsThe opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policyWhat Jim will be watching heading into year-end00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed's inflation stance24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)41:00 – Trendline analysis: S&P vs. broader market47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S&P 500 divergence52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Philbrick of Resolve Asset Management to discuss why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, the role of “psychological commodities” like gold and Bitcoin, and how return stacking can change the way investors think about diversification. Mike shares insights on macro regimes, investor psychology, and why these once-fringe assets may now be foundational in building resilient portfolios.Topics Covered:Why the 1982–2020 period was a “golden era” for stocks and bondsHow today's macro regime challenges traditional diversificationThe case for gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiersDebt, inflation, and the shifting role of scarce assetsWhy lack of cash flows is a feature, not a bug, for gold & BitcoinGenerational differences in crypto adoption and advisor psychologyHow return stacking works and why it matters for investorsThe evolving regulatory and institutional landscape for BitcoinRisks: existential threats, quantum computing, policy changesTokenization, blockchain innovation, and the future of financeMike's one lesson for the average investorTimestamps:00:00 – Why the 1982–2020 period was a golden era03:00 – Stocks, bonds, and changing correlations07:00 – Debt, inflation, and the macro backdrop10:00 – Gold, Bitcoin, and the cash flow debate14:20 – Why investors resist gold & Bitcoin19:00 – Generational divides and adoption rates23:00 – The evolution of gold and parallels to Bitcoin26:30 – What is Bitcoin? Digital gold vs growth asset28:30 – Career risk flipping: from owning to not owning32:00 – Behavioral biases and implementation frictions35:00 – Sizing matters: avoiding “all or nothing” mistakes36:00 – Market-cap weights and neutral allocations38:00 – Long-term real returns of gold & Bitcoin40:00 – Will Bitcoin and gold compete or complement?43:00 – Portfolio construction: risk-weighting gold & Bitcoin44:00 – Return stacking explained49:00 – Trend following and dead money periods51:00 – Risks: quantum computing, regulation, behavior56:00 – Tokenization, blockchain rails, and innovation1:01:13 – Mike's one lesson for the average investor

Defined outcome ETFs have exploded in popularity, offering investors a way to combine downside protection with upside participation. In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jeff Chang of Vest Financial to break down the mechanics of buffer ETFs, how they fit into portfolios, the critiques they face, and where this space is headed. Jeff shares the origin story of Vest, the innovations that made these strategies accessible and how Buffer ETFs work behind the scenes.The origin of Vest and the impact of the Lehman collapse on product designHow buffer ETFs work and why they focus on the “first 10–15%” of drawdownsThe behavioral finance angle: making hedging simple and accessibleWhy 2022 highlighted the weaknesses of traditional 60/40 portfoliosThe mechanics of buffer ETFs: options structures and resetsPopular buffer levels and how investors are using themAddressing critiques: costs, beta instability, and comparisons to cash or commoditiesThe scalability of these strategies and potential market impactBehavioral vs. quantitative advantages of defined outcome fundsFuture developments, including applications to crypto and higher-volatility assetsJeff's lessons on investing, risk management, and staying invested00:00 – Introduction and the growth of defined outcome strategies02:00 – The genesis of Vest Financial after Lehman's collapse09:00 – Explaining buffer ETFs in simple terms14:00 – Who uses these strategies and why 2022 was a turning point18:00 – Mechanics of resets and protection at market highs22:00 – Range of buffers, caps, and investor demand27:00 – The options structures behind buffer ETFs30:00 – Liquidity, scalability, and market impact considerations34:00 – How investors are using buffers in portfolios38:00 – Tax efficiency inside the ETF wrapper39:00 – Addressing critiques: cash, commodities, and costs47:00 – Are these strategies more behavioral or quantitative?48:30 – The future of buffer strategies and expansion into crypto53:00 – Jeff's contrarian investing belief54:00 – The one lesson Jeff would teach every investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Tobias Carlisle — author, host of Value After Hours, and manager of the Acquirers Funds. Toby shares his candid perspective on market valuations, value investing's long struggle, and why he still believes mean reversion will eventually swing back in favor of small caps and value stocks. We also dive into AI, global markets, the Fed, housing, and where investors might find opportunity outside today's expensive U.S. mega-caps.Market valuations: why today's market may be more expensive than 1929, 2000, or 2020The pitfalls of relying on single-year P/E ratios and better long-term valuation measuresThe divergence between the “Magnificent 10” and the rest of the marketSmall caps, mid caps, and value: where Toby sees opportunity despite an earnings recessionAI as both a transformative force and a potential bubble-like capital cycleU.S. vs. international markets: structural advantages of American capitalism and where China is catching upThe Fed, interest rates, inflation, and how they really matter for value investorsHousing affordability and demographics as headwinds for the U.S. economyWhy Toby believes the “value vs. growth jaws” will eventually close00:00 – Are markets more expensive than 1929 and 2000?04:00 – Breaking down valuation charts: S&P, Russell, and mid/small caps10:00 – Why single-year P/Es mislead investors14:00 – Lessons from past bubbles: Nifty 50, dot-com era, and now19:00 – Large vs. small: the longest run for growth in history24:00 – AI's impact: transformative technology or capital cycle trap?32:00 – Toby's personal experience with AI (and why it disappoints him so far)33:00 – U.S. advantages vs. international markets and China's rise41:00 – Are today's U.S. valuations justified?45:00 – The Fed, interest rates, and speculation46:00 – Housing affordability and demographics as headwinds55:00 – Should value investors care about macro?59:00 – Closing question: Toby's contrarian belief on value vs. growth

In this episode, we sit down with Leigh Drogen of StarKiller Capital, alongside guest co-host Kai Wu, for a deep dive into crypto investing strategies, momentum in digital assets, and market-neutral DeFi yield opportunities. Leigh shares his perspective on where we are in the crypto evolution, the parallels with past technology cycles, and how to survive and advance in one of the most volatile asset classes in the world. From time-series and cross-sectional momentum to the economics of yield farming, this is a comprehensive look at building systematic strategies in digital assets.Topics Covered:The parallels between Web1 → Web2 and today's crypto transitionWhy the “fat protocol” thesis is giving way to the “fat app” eraThe role of Bitcoin vs. Ethereum in the next stage of crypto adoptionThe “survive and advance” investing philosophyTime-series momentum and cross-sectional momentum in cryptoHow VC behavior is changing momentum dynamicsSector-level momentum and narrowing lookback periodsStarKiller's approach to asset selection and quality screensBuilding a market-neutral DeFi yield strategyBootstrapping network effects and early liquidity provisioningDiligence, counterparty risk, and managing protocol riskThe competitive landscape and where the biggest edges remain in cryptoTimestamps:00:00 – Crypto's infrastructure milestones and evolution02:53 – The “fat protocol” vs. “fat app” thesis08:09 – Bitcoin's role vs. Ethereum's potential14:20 – “Survive and advance” and limiting drawdowns19:20 – Time-series vs. cross-sectional momentum23:00 – VC selling behavior and regime change in momentum31:47 – Sector-level momentum trends36:13 – Shorter lookback periods and market speed39:56 – StarKiller's investable universe and filtering process48:00 – Designing a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy52:56 – Rewards farming and bootstrapping network effects58:00 – Market-making vaults and APR opportunities01:00:10 – Managing counterparty and protocol risk01:04:02 – Has crypto alpha become more competitive?01:07:41 – One lesson for the average investor

How Aswath Damodaran Manages His Own Portfolio | Show Us Your PortfolioIn this episode of our Show Us Your Portfolio series, we go inside the personal investing approach of Aswath Damodaran — the “Dean of Valuation.” Known for his expertise in corporate valuation, Aswath rarely discusses how he manages his own money. We cover his philosophy, asset allocation, position sizing rules, lifecycle diversification, and the lessons he's learned from decades of investing his own wealth.What you'll learn in this episode:The core mission that drives Aswath's investing decisionsHow he thinks about risk, concentration, and position sizingWhy he avoids bonds and focuses on equity appreciationHis approach to strategic vs. tactical investingThe role of lifecycle diversification in portfolio constructionHow he decides when to buy and sell individual stocksWhy luck plays such a big role in investing resultsHis views on international exposure, dividends, gold, crypto, and alternative assetsPersonal spending habits and what he values most outside of investingTimestamps:00:00 – Investing's end game: preserve and grow wealth03:25 – How life stage changes investment approach07:41 – Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio08:47 – Why he holds no bonds10:12 – The power of compounding12:25 – Separating portfolio from income needs15:02 – Strategic vs. tactical investing18:00 – Managing concentration risk and trimming winners20:30 – Market concentration & the Mag 725:31 – How he buys and sells stocks32:46 – Hit rate and lessons from decades of investing37:26 – Lifecycle diversification41:00 – U.S. vs. international investing43:22 – Dividend investing45:35 – Gold, crypto, and alternative assets53:15 – What he drives and his ESG take54:39 – Spending for joy56:00 – Key investing advice for individuals57:37 – Life outside markets & creative thinking time

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Nick Maggiulli — author of Just Keep Buying and his new book The Wealth Ladder. Nick shares his six-level framework for building wealth, why mobility between wealth levels is rarer than most people think, and how your financial strategy should evolve as your net worth grows. From grocery freedom to travel freedom, and from the risks of ego to the realities of taxes and investing at different stages, this conversation offers a practical guide to managing and growing wealth at any level.Topics Covered:The six levels of wealth and how to move between them“Grocery freedom,” “restaurant freedom,” and “travel freedom”Why moving down wealth levels is rare — and why moving up is harder than you thinkStrategies for Level 2: the role of education and income growthStrategies for Level 3: shifting focus to investing and compoundingThe importance of diversification, taxes, and risk management at higher levelsHow ego can derail wealth preservationBehavioral shifts needed when your portfolio outpaces your incomeThe impact of interest rates, taxes, and spending habits on mobilityPlanning for unknown future liabilitiesTimestamps:00:00 – Introduction to The Wealth Ladder framework01:40 – Grocery freedom, restaurant freedom, and travel freedom05:26 – Why moving down wealth levels is rare09:20 – Strategies for moving from Level 2 to Level 315:35 – Shifting from income growth to investing focus24:24 – Diversification and risk management in Level 433:20 – Ego as the most expensive thing some people own39:15 – Interest rates, taxes, and spending across levels46:00 – Planning for unknown future liabilities50:45 – Wealth mobility across generations

In this episode of Excess Returns, we're joined by Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore one of the most important and overlooked aspects of Warren Buffett's investing evolution: his shift from tangible to intangible value. Based on Kai's research paper “Buffett's Intangible Moats,” we examine how Buffett's portfolio has evolved alongside the economy — and why the intangible drivers of brand equity, intellectual property, human capital, and network effects are central to understanding his success. Kai also shares how quantitative methods can be used to replicate Buffett's approach and what this means for investors today.Topics Covered:The three eras of Buffett's portfolio evolution: industrial, consumer, and information ageWhy Buffett's shift away from deep value investing began earlier than most realizeHow Charlie Munger helped change Buffett's approach — and why that matteredBuffett's preference for intangible assets like brand, IP, and network effectsHow to quantify intangible value and its four key componentsSurprising stats: Buffett rarely buys below book value and holds high price-to-book stocksKai's framework for building an intangible value score across stocksFactor attribution: quality and intangible value explain most of Buffett's alphaThe impact of portfolio size, sector biases, and evolution of circle of competenceHow to replicate Buffett's approach using a systematic, factor-based strategyWhy intangible value may be the "quality of tomorrow" and a forward-looking moatTimestamps:00:00 – Buffett's evolution from value to intangible investor01:55 – Why Kai researched Buffett's investing style now04:00 – The three eras of Buffett: Geico, Coca-Cola, Apple08:15 – How Buffett's thinking changed under Munger's influence10:00 – The rise of intangible moats and Buffett's definition of economic goodwill13:10 – Four components of intangible value15:10 – Mapping Buffett's holdings to intangible assets over time17:30 – Does Buffett get enough credit for evolving?20:30 – Only 8% of his holdings were bought below book value24:00 – Average price-to-book of Buffett's portfolio is 826:00 – Defining Kai's intangible value factor27:50 – Buffett becomes a value investor again — just using a different metric30:00 – Circle of competence vs. expanding opportunity set33:00 – Today's portfolio is 75% intangible by Kai's framework34:45 – Decomposing Buffett's returns into factors38:00 – Quality and intangible value explain 90% of Buffett's alpha43:15 – Sector exposure vs. true value tilt49:00 – Intangible value as a leading indicator of quality52:00 – Building a Buffett-style quant portfolio using two key factors54:00 – Why Buffett's future returns may be more muted

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Grant Williams for a wide-ranging conversation on what he calls the “Hundred Year Pivot.” Grant shares his view that we are living through a once-in-a-century inflection point — a deep, structural shift that is reshaping markets, institutions, societal values, and even individual behavior. This isn't about predicting the next trade; it's about understanding the tectonic changes happening beneath the surface and how investors can adapt, survive, and eventually thrive.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and special guest host Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital are joined by Verdad's Dan Rasmussen for a deep dive into the hidden risks lurking in private equity—and why they may be more dangerous than investors realize.Rasmussen, a long-time critic of the asset class, explains why the allure of illiquidity, stale pricing, and past outperformance has led to dangerous capital misallocations. Along the way, we explore the origins of the Yale model, the current liquidity crunch, volatility laundering, and whether small-cap value could be the better bet today. We also dig into bubbles, biotech, and whether AI will concentrate or diffuse economic power.

Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he's helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Mike Green returns to dissect the structural transformation underway in public markets due to the rise of passive investing. He explains why “there's no such thing as a passive investor,” how inelastic flows distort prices, and what it means for valuation, volatility, and the long-term sustainability of equity markets. From the math behind market multipliers to the policy distortions driving mega-cap dominance, Mike walks through the macro, micro, and behavioral implications of passive flows — and what investors and policymakers need to do about it.

Subscribe on Apple Podcsastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFcSubscribe on YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/excessreturnsIn the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The JimPaulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that definetoday's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for whythe private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may notbe on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despiterecord index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, theunderappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, andthe risks posed by policy uncertainty.Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, orjust trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts,and contrarian insight.

Policy uncertainty is rising—but markets seem unfazed. In this episode, we sit down with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, to explore the critical policy risks that investors may be underestimating or ignoring altogether.From the real-world implications of the tariffs to questions around Fed independence, fiscal stimulus, and housing market interventions, Libby provides an insider's perspective on what's happening in Washington—and why it matters more than the market suggests.She also discusses how policy risk differs from macroeconomic risk, how investors often price the wrong factors, and why the next shock may not come from where most expect.Topics covered include:Why policy risk remains underappreciated by marketsThe lasting impact of tariffs—and how they could evolveThe Big, Beautiful Tax Bill: What's real, what's hypeRisks to Fed independence and central bank credibilityGSE reform and the political tightrope in housingThe intersection of fiscal policy and market complacencyWhether you're focused on macro trends, portfolio positioning, or simply trying to understand what Washington might throw at markets next, this is a conversation you don't want to miss.

Why didn't the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today's economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now.We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you've been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking.Topics discussed include:Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycleThe real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panicHow the Fed's rate hikes lost their biteWhat's changed in the economy's sensitivity to ratesPrometheus' approach to stress testing and forecastingHow Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategyThe behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts

Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think.In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you're a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today's volatility.We discuss:What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matterHow options flows move billions without a fundamental triggerThe role of gamma, vanna, and charm in stock price actionWhy expiration cycles often mark major market turning pointsReal-world examples: GameStop, Tesla, Nvidia, and the S&P 500What traditional investors miss by ignoring these dynamicsEven if you've never traded an option, this episode will change how you see the market.

In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm's 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets.Paolini also shares his views on inflation, tariffs, AI, private markets, and the challenges of navigating a low-return, high-risk world. Whether you're a global macro watcher or a long-term investor thinking about regime shifts, this conversation offers a roadmap for the next five years.Topics covered include:Why the U.S. may no longer deserve its valuation premiumHow debt and protectionism threaten global growthWhy the next five years could see converging returns across regions and assetsThe investment case for bonds, credit, and emerging market debtAI's impact on productivity and equity concentrationThe future role of gold, crypto, and private assets in portfolios