Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we're joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem.Topics covered:How AI is driving a new era of electricity demandThe evolving U.S. energy mix: oil, gas, nuclear, and renewablesWhy electricity is becoming the new oilThe scale of power needed to support AI and data centersOpportunities and challenges in renewables and battery storageThe resurgence of nuclear and the role of natural gasHow U.S. shale transformed inflation and global energy marketsEnergy infrastructure and why it offers steady returnsHow the TCAI ETF captures the “AI infrastructure” opportunityRisks and resilience of the U.S. power gridLessons from 30 years investing in energyTimestamps:00:00 Electricity is the new oil and the future of AI energy demand02:00 The evolving U.S. energy mix and global demand growth08:00 Why electricity, not oil, will power the next economic era11:00 How much power AI and data centers will need15:00 Can renewables meet rising energy demand?20:00 The comeback of nuclear and its challenges25:00 How U.S. shale changed global energy and inflation32:00 Why energy infrastructure is less volatile than commodities36:00 Inside Tortoise's new AI infrastructure ETF (TCAI)43:00 The rise of digital and electricity infrastructure plays45:00 How Tortoise evaluates investments and valuations49:00 The resilience and future expansion of the U.S. grid52:00 Closing lessons: contrarian investing and energy's importance

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing's most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money periods, family wealth stewardship, and how to think about value versus price in a noisy world.Topics covered:• The “cheapest dentist” analogy and why investors chase bargains• The three phases of investor evolution: cheap, good, and exceptional• Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Graham on paying up for quality• How to hold through drawdowns and dead money periods• Why patience and conviction are the hardest investing skills• Frugality, compounding, and lessons from his grandmother• How long-term family investors think about wealth and stewardship• The difference between price and value in modern markets• How to know when cheap is too cheap and quality is worth paying for• Why great investments are often simple to explain• The story behind his Wall Street Journal essay “The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investments”Timestamps:00:00 Introduction – The cheapest dentist analogy03:00 Why investors love cheap stocks07:00 The evolution from bargain hunter to quality investor09:00 Examples from Ben Graham, Buffett, and Facebook15:30 Conviction, drawdowns, and dead money19:00 Judging success by business progress, not stock price27:00 Lessons from grandma on value and frugality31:00 How Buffett evolved from cheap to quality45:00 Investing for future generations49:00 Invisible wealth and stewardship52:00 The value investor dilemma58:00 Equal-weight vs market-cap indexes59:00 Lessons for the average investor1:02:00 How much research you really need1:04:30 How his WSJ essay came to life and final takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today's markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns.Topics covered:Matt's journey from engineering to investingLessons learned at DFA and the foundation of evidence-based investingDefining factors and what makes them credibleThe role of value, momentum, quality, and size in portfoliosThe challenges of intangibles and redefining valueLarge cap tech dominance, mean reversion, and whether the world has changedFactor timing, valuation spreads, and Cliff Asness' “sin” frameworkHow momentum can be integrated with value tiltsPortfolio construction: combining factors vs sleeve approachesImplementation challenges for large vs small managersHow Longview manages liquidity, turnover, and trading costsThe potential impact of AI on factor investingFuture opportunities in implementation alpha and ETF designMatt's biggest investing belief most peers disagree withThe key lesson he would teach the average investorTimestamps:00:00 Value vs returns and factor investing basics03:00 From engineering and Boeing to investing06:15 Time at DFA and lessons in evidence-based investing07:30 What evidence-based investing really means09:25 Defining factors and what makes them valid12:00 Using value, profitability, size, and momentum16:00 Large cap tech dominance and future returns18:00 Mean reversion and whether the world has changed20:00 How long does value need to struggle before it's “dead”?22:30 Should value be redefined for intangibles?25:30 Intangibles, R&D, and why adjustments add noise27:00 Value's performance across economic cycles and migration30:00 Interest rates, growth, and value performance32:00 Factor timing and valuation spreads34:15 The role of momentum in timing and implementation35:00 How Longview applies passive-aggressive tilts36:30 Combining factors vs sleeve approaches39:00 How momentum is used in practice41:30 Factor migration and average holding periods43:00 The size premium and whether it still exists44:30 The benefits of being nimble vs large fund families47:30 Liquidity challenges in small cap value52:00 The role of AI in investing54:00 Where implementation adds the most alpha55:30 One belief Matt holds that peers may disagree with57:20 The one lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we're joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading.Topics covered:Noel's background: biochemistry, military, market making, HFT, hedge fund launchHow markets have evolved since the 1990sWhy volatility is the best source of market informationRegime shift modeling and its role in strategy selectionUsing options for income and the trade-offs investors should understandVolatility harvesting and risk-defined short vol strategiesThe impact of zero DTE options on marketsDispersion trading and correlation dynamicsBond vol arbitrage and volatility surfacesOpportunistic trades like GameStop and meme stocksTail hedging, its costs, and how to monetize hedgesLessons on flexibility, risk, and never being married to positionsTimestamps:00:00 Intro and Noel's unique background06:00 How markets have changed behind the scenes07:00 Why volatility is the best information source09:00 Regime shift model explained19:00 Using options for income – benefits and risks24:30 Volatility harvesting strategies29:10 What the VIX does (and doesn't) tell you30:30 Zero DTE options and systemic risk33:20 Dispersion trading explained42:00 Bond vol arbitrage45:00 Opportunistic trades: GameStop and beyond51:30 Tail hedging and rebalancing54:30 Lessons on flexibility and risk management

In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he's learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles.Topics covered in this episode:Why market valuations are harder to use today than in the pastThe impact of buybacks, margins, and technology on long-term comparisonsMarket concentration and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocksPassive investing flows, investor behavior, and government backstopsHow AI compares to past technological innovations and its investment implicationsValue versus growth cycles and why U.S. tech has broken historical normsThe lessons of the NASDAQ since 2000 and defining the long term for investorsPersonal experiences from the 2008 financial crisis and the power of compoundingDiversification, gold's surprising performance, and the case for international investingTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and market valuations06:00 Structural changes and the role of buybacks09:00 Margins, efficiency, and corporate dominance12:00 Market concentration and the rise of mega-cap tech14:00 Passive investing and household stock ownership18:00 Government backstops and market resilience23:00 Valuations as expectations vs. predictions25:00 AI boom and capital allocation29:00 Is this 1996 or 1999? Bubble comparisons32:00 How AI may reshape investing and daily life41:00 Investing in breakthrough technologies43:00 Value versus growth cycles in the U.S. and abroad46:00 Lessons from the NASDAQ and defining long-term investing49:00 Compounding lessons from the 2008 financial crisis53:00 Diversification, gold, and international performance

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves.Topics covered in the episode:The job market's pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisionsWhy recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systemsThe narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cyclesInvestor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability modelsHow easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growthWhat “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOsThe disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measuresGold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today's environmentThe impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectationsValuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiplesTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and market overview02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks09:00 Bull market without normal supports17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies23:55 Confidence and the misery index29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy34:00 Broadening of market participation37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields45:10 The role of gold in portfolios50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he believes large-cap growth and technology will continue to lead in the years ahead.Main topics covered:John's path from personal investing to launching an ETFLessons learned from early stock picks and market-making experienceThe power of low marginal cost businesses and long-term compoundingHow AI is reshaping software development, innovation, and profitabilityThe importance of revenue and earnings growth in stock selectionDigital toll booths as the future of software business modelsDifferences between profitable vs. unprofitable growth companiesWhy technology leadership today differs from the dot-com eraThe role of sectors, valuation, and position sizing in portfolio constructionJohn's views on growth vs. value, large-cap vs. small-cap, and future innovation trendsTimestamps:00:00 The riskiest thing in investing02:00 John's background and early investing journey05:00 Lessons from Apple, Boeing, Visa, and Potash10:00 Insights from agriculture and value investing12:00 AI's impact on software development and innovation16:00 Sectors, classifications, and thematic approaches18:00 Comparing AI disruption to past bubbles21:00 Profitability in today's tech companies22:00 Will the top companies stay dominant?26:00 Large-cap vs. small-cap technology investing28:00 Growth vs. value in today's market30:00 Demographics, Buffett's lessons, and sector shifts34:00 Value vs. software companies35:00 Digital toll booths explained37:00 Growth sustainability and digital infrastructure40:00 Semiconductor cycles and long-term demand44:00 Screening for growth and low marginal cost47:00 Sell discipline and valuation checks49:00 Position sizing and portfolio management51:00 ETF tax benefits and structure53:00 Where AOTG fits in portfolios54:00 One belief peers disagree with56:00 One lesson for the average investor57:00 Closing thoughts and outro

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the role of passive investing in today's markets.Main topics covered:How Joseph achieved long-term outperformance at TCW and what drove his resultsWhy recurring revenue and predictable cash flows are central to his approachThe importance of management quality and identifying “fanatics” vs. mercenariesLessons investors should and should not take from Warren BuffettBill Miller's influence and backing of Rainwater EquityCharacteristics Joseph looks for in great businesses and red flags in management teamsPortfolio concentration, position sizing, and risk managementWhy you don't need to have an opinion on every sectorSelling discipline and knowing when it's time to move onHow valuation fits into his framework and how he thinks about paying up for qualityThe impact of passive investing and why active managers must take a long-term viewStories and lessons from Peter Lynch, including his enduring influenceTimestamps:0:00 If a stock has doubled, you haven't missed it1:00 Introduction and Joseph's track record at TCW2:00 Keys to long-term outperformance8:00 Lessons from Warren Buffett's wins and mistakes11:30 Bill Miller's influence and support for Rainwater Equity14:00 What defines a high-quality business20:00 Free cash flow compounding and moats24:00 Red flags in management teams31:00 Why active management is broken and Joseph's solution35:00 Portfolio concentration and risk management42:00 Sectors to avoid and why47:00 Joseph's selling discipline53:00 Exceptional leaders and the role of management quality58:00 Valuation, future value, and the changing economy1:04:00 Passive investing and market distortions1:09:00 Lessons and stories from Peter Lynch1:14:00 Closing questions and key investing lessons1:20:00 Where to learn more about Joseph and Rainwater Equity

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today's market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal.Topics covered:• Why the long game is undefeated• Short-term volatility and how to prepare for it• The myth of average returns• Asymmetric upside in markets and stocks• AI as both opportunity and risk• Earnings as the ultimate driver of stock prices• Why valuations don't predict the next year• The role of uncertainty and hidden risks• Turnover and evolution within the stock market• Why the stock market isn't the economyTimestamps:00:00 Average returns are misleading02:00 Introducing Sam Ro02:15 Truth #1: The long game is undefeated08:40 Truth #2: You can get smoked in the short term14:20 Do markets have a government backstop?18:00 Truth #3: The myth of average returns23:00 Truth #4: Asymmetric upside28:00 AI as macro and micro driver33:00 Truth #5: Earnings drive stock prices36:30 Truth #6: Valuations won't tell you much about next year51:40 Truth #7: There will always be something to worry about55:20 Truth #8: The destabilizing risks are the ones people aren't talking about01:05:00 Truth #9: There's a lot of turnover in markets01:11:00 Truth #10: The stock market isn't the economy01:20:00 Closing thoughts

In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI's productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade's best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks through the risks she's watching, why facts change faster than narratives, and practical ways to connect top-down insights with bottom-up research.Topics coveredThe Perpetual Growth Machine: why needs spark innovation and growth, and how investors can spot it earlyWhy monopolies look great to investors but hurt long-term growth and innovationAI as a general purpose technology and the scale of potential productivity savingsHousing affordability, incomes, and policy bottlenecks through the PGM lensHow firms are actually adopting AI and how faster data changes research cadenceEurope's defense build-out and the rise of national champions and small-cap innovatorsInterpreting market concentration and what it signals about competitionInflation oscillation, policy mix, and why the Fed's tools have limitsTariffs as a regressive tax and how costs pass through to consumers over timeUS exceptionalism narrowing and why ex-US markets may lead in the coming cycleThe Draghi report and tearing down barriers inside the EU single marketComparing late-1990s tech to today's AI build-out and who the next leaders may beGrowth vs. value: focusing on sustained profit inflections, not cheapness aloneUsing stakeholder analysis to link macro themes to bottom-up stock workBiggest opportunities: Japan, Korea, Europe, select emerging markets, and parts of the Middle EastBiggest risk: a breakdown in the global order amid US-China tensionsClosing lessons: stay curious, stay nimble, question narratives, track the factsTimestamps00:00 Introduction and Olga's role at William Blair02:49 The Perpetual Growth Machine explained06:24 Policy bottlenecks, incentives, and growth09:32 AI as a general purpose technology and productivity math11:53 Practical AI adoption inside investment firms15:06 Where PGM points to opportunity right now16:26 Europe's defense spending and emerging winners19:02 Macro setup and consumer health20:42 Inflation today and what's changed under the hood22:46 The Fed's dilemma and limits of monetary policy25:00 Tariffs 101: who pays and how it shows up28:55 Early evidence in goods prices29:41 US exceptionalism vs. the rest of the world31:00 The Draghi report and a real EU single market33:11 Can Europe and others catch up in tech?36:15 EU financial services barriers and capital deployment37:07 Portfolio implications: why look ex-US39:10 Late-1990s tech vs. today's AI cycle41:20 Concentration risk and competition policy42:26 Value vs. growth through the PGM lens44:48 Base rates, sustaining growth, and churn at the top49:33 Marrying macro themes with bottom-up research51:08 Firsthand observation vs. headline narratives52:20 Biggest opportunities across regions53:00 Middle East changes and new listings54:48 Biggest risk: global order and US-China tensions55:36 Parting advice for investors

Ned Davis Research's Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR's “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold's secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You'll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim's timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible.Topics CoveredNDR's 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”)How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked outSecular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turnReading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could meanConcentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the worldWhere value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotationsGold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocationPractical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold“No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicatorsUsing historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from themTim's core lesson: you can't forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-drivenTimestamps (YouTube Chapters)00:00 Don't fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context)01:06 Intro and why NDR's process beats single charts02:58 NDR's 360° framework and composite models05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained13:04 What counts as a secular bear ('66–'82, 2000–'09)15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 202222:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 202224:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China's role in EM33:25 Gold's standout year—drivers and positioning36:16 Gold's secular and cyclical bull case37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 202549:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives53:41 Why independence matters53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he's learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets.Topics Covered:Why the Fed is becoming more political and what that means for marketsThe “re-acceleration that wasn't” and lessons from quickly abandoning tradesHow to structure trades like gold calls and TLT puts for asymmetric payoffFX as the “exhaust valve” for tariffs and global capital flowsCanada's housing bubble and CAD vulnerabilitiesInflation targeting, bond vigilantes, and the Fed's credibilityAvoiding the trap of perma-bearishness and using stop-losses as forced humilityThe importance of imagination in regime changes and Fed forecast errorsHow Brent is using LLMs and AI to trade headlines, structure trades, and analyze patternsTrading bubble names with options and risk-aware structuresLessons on flexibility, humility, and embracing uncertainty in marketsTimestamps:00:00 – Fed independence and political pressure02:00 – The failed “re-acceleration” thesis06:00 – Structuring gold calls and TLT puts14:00 – FX as the exhaust valve for tariffs20:50 – Canada's housing market and CAD risks26:30 – The Fed as a political institution32:40 – Inflation targeting and 3% as the new 2%35:20 – Avoiding perma-bear bias and using stop-losses42:00 – The Fed dinner story and the humility of wrong forecasts46:30 – Using LLMs and AI in trading53:00 – Shorting bubble names with call spreads56:00 – Cheat sheets and pattern recognition with AI59:30 – Lessons on flexibility and humility in trading1:02:15 – Closing thoughts and where to follow Brent

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio strategies.Topics CoveredWhy fears of a looming debt crisis may be misplacedInflation outlook, tariffs, and the Fed's “soft landing” challengeThe importance of Fed independence and risks of politicizationImmigration, demographics, and long-term disinflationary trendsHow AI is reshaping productivity, inequality, and the job marketDefined Duration Investing and asset-liability matchingLessons from all-weather strategies and the Permanent PortfolioCullen's “Forward Cap Portfolio” and future of global marketsTimestamps00:00 – Cullen on debt crisis fears02:32 – State of the U.S. economy post-COVID05:18 – Inflation, tariffs, and shelter costs10:25 – Soft landing vs. rolling recessions14:07 – The Fed's role and impossible job19:25 – National debt and Ray Dalio's crisis warning27:52 – AI boom and disinflationary forces31:01 – Immigration, demographics, and inflation37:23 – Aging population and wealth inequality43:00 – How AI impacts productivity and jobs52:00 – Defined Duration Investing explained1:01:34 – Portfolio strategies: Permanent Portfolio & risk parity1:03:54 – Cullen's “Forward Cap Portfolio”1:06:31 – Closing thoughts and future projects

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,healthcare's role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how hissystematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive. ### Topics Covered * Eric's unconventional career path: from Morgan Stanley andExxonMobil to founding 46Brooklyn and joining Band Creek * How personal experiences led him to tackle healthcaretransparency and drug pricing reform * The role of **information theory** in investing and thefoundation of Band Creek's systematic process * Building powerful data visualizations to understand labormarkets, inflation, and structural economic changes * Why healthcare dominates recent U.S. job growth and therisks of overreliance on one sector * The impact of immigration on labor force growth andstructural inflation * Key drivers of inflation and how to interpret CPI and PCEdata * How Band Creek applies systematic endurance and the KellyCriterion to equity selection * Sector exposures and lessons learned from applyingdata-driven models internationally * Eric's views on cognitive biases, why most investors can'treliably beat the market, and the power of data analysis

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cole Smead of Smead Capital for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, history, and the principles of value investing. Cole shares his perspectives on fiscal largesse, inflation, passive flows, energy markets, U.S. exceptionalism, and the timeless lessons of Buffett and Munger. His insights bridge economic history with today's market realities, giving investors a framework to think about risk, capital allocation, and opportunity costs.Deficits, monetary policy, and why recessions are hard to find todayInflation dynamics and lessons from the 1960s and 1970sThe U.S. government's role in markets (Intel stake, big government policies)American exceptionalism vs. global capital allocation improvementsEarnings quality and the divergence between accounting and economic profitsPassive investing flows, weak competition, and investor behaviorEnergy investing: from fracking bust to efficiency and capital disciplineComparing the AI boom with past manias and capital cyclesSmead Capital's investment process and evaluating “wonderful companies”Buffett, Munger, and the lessons of asset-light vs. capital-intensive businessesClosing insights: why returns on capital matter more than EPS or revenue00:00 – Opening quote and fiscal deficits02:00 – Debt, inflation, and recession risks08:50 – Government stake in Intel & big government era12:15 – U.S. exceptionalism and arrogance17:30 – Earnings quality erosion in U.S. businesses24:00 – Passive flows and human behavior27:30 – Opportunities in energy investing34:00 – Energy buildout vs. AI boom38:00 – Smead Capital's investment process44:00 – Lessons from Buffett and Munger51:00 – Standard closing question

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Schutte, CIO of Northwestern Mutual, to discuss the current macro landscape and what it means for investors. Brent shares his balanced perspective on the Fed, inflation, tariffs, concentration risk in markets, and why diversification may be more important now than ever. With over 30 years of investing experience, Brent provides valuable lessons from past cycles that help put today's environment in context.The Fed's dual mandate and why both inflation and unemployment risks matterHow tariffs could reshape growth and inflation dynamicsMarket concentration and the dominance of the Magnificent SevenLessons from past cycles (1999 tech bubble, 2007 commodities, Japan in the 1980s)The role of diversification, including small/mid caps, international equities, and commoditiesActive vs. passive investing and how to evaluate managersRecession signals, rolling recessions, and hidden economic weaknessWhy humility and balance are essential in portfolio construction00:00 – Introduction & importance of diversification02:00 – The Fed's mandate and tariffs' impact on growth & inflation07:30 – Reaction to Powell's Jackson Hole speech & Fed independence15:20 – Hidden recession, labor market signals & AI's economic role20:30 – Reliability of recession indicators post-COVID26:00 – Tariffs, uncertainty & risks for investors28:40 – Market concentration and the Magnificent Seven34:00 – Rethinking diversification: 60/40, commodities, and international exposure41:20 – Lessons from past market cycles (Japan, dot-com, China, commodities)45:15 – Passive flows, active management, and evaluating skill vs. luck50:00 – Government stakes in companies (Intel discussion)52:00 – Standard closing questions & final lessons

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle of Liquid Strategies to explore the rapidly growing world of option-based ETF strategies. With the rise of covered calls, buffered products, and hedged equity funds, it's more important than ever for investors to separate smart solutions from risky marketing gimmicks. Shawn and Eric break down how their firm approaches overlays, income generation, and downside protection in a way that helps advisors and investors achieve better long-term outcomes.The evolution of options in ETFs and why adoption has acceleratedCommon flaws in covered call strategies and the risks investors missHow Liquid Strategies uses option overlays to add return, income, and downside protectionThe “Swiss Army knife” approach to using put spreads for multiple portfolio goalsThe importance of timeframe in option strategies and the debate around 0DTEWhy “high yield” products often just return investor capitalUsing options for true risk management and hedging vs. cosmetic protectionHow Liquid Strategies structures its ETF suite and interval fundsWhere hedged equity and bond overlays can serve as ballast in portfoliosStandard closing lessons for investors on staying invested and balancing risk00:01 – Introduction to Liquid Strategies and option-based ETFs02:34 – The rise of options in portfolios and industry evolution05:29 – Flaws in common options strategies08:19 – Covered calls: why they often disappoint12:00 – Balancing upside, downside, and income in overlays15:31 – What overlay strategies really mean20:19 – The “Swiss Army knife” of selling put spreads24:09 – Why timeframe matters and 0DTE options debate28:56 – How rates and volatility impact option overlays32:59 – The importance of systematic but flexible processes36:46 – High yield traps and returning investor capital43:04 – Using options for hedging and risk management46:47 – How advisors incorporate overlays into portfolios48:54 – ETFs vs. interval funds explained54:26 – Where overlays fit in today's asset allocation57:55 – Closing lessons for investors

In this episode, Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives joins us to break down the state of the economy, the Fed's policy stance, inflation risks, and what's really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall.Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish dataHow fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growthWhy corporate profits outside the S&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strengthThe Fed's inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shiftsJim's case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectationsHistorical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they've been missingDivergence between S&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the marketStructural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earningsThe opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policyWhat Jim will be watching heading into year-end00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed's inflation stance24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)41:00 – Trendline analysis: S&P vs. broader market47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S&P 500 divergence52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Philbrick of Resolve Asset Management to discuss why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, the role of “psychological commodities” like gold and Bitcoin, and how return stacking can change the way investors think about diversification. Mike shares insights on macro regimes, investor psychology, and why these once-fringe assets may now be foundational in building resilient portfolios.Topics Covered:Why the 1982–2020 period was a “golden era” for stocks and bondsHow today's macro regime challenges traditional diversificationThe case for gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiersDebt, inflation, and the shifting role of scarce assetsWhy lack of cash flows is a feature, not a bug, for gold & BitcoinGenerational differences in crypto adoption and advisor psychologyHow return stacking works and why it matters for investorsThe evolving regulatory and institutional landscape for BitcoinRisks: existential threats, quantum computing, policy changesTokenization, blockchain innovation, and the future of financeMike's one lesson for the average investorTimestamps:00:00 – Why the 1982–2020 period was a golden era03:00 – Stocks, bonds, and changing correlations07:00 – Debt, inflation, and the macro backdrop10:00 – Gold, Bitcoin, and the cash flow debate14:20 – Why investors resist gold & Bitcoin19:00 – Generational divides and adoption rates23:00 – The evolution of gold and parallels to Bitcoin26:30 – What is Bitcoin? Digital gold vs growth asset28:30 – Career risk flipping: from owning to not owning32:00 – Behavioral biases and implementation frictions35:00 – Sizing matters: avoiding “all or nothing” mistakes36:00 – Market-cap weights and neutral allocations38:00 – Long-term real returns of gold & Bitcoin40:00 – Will Bitcoin and gold compete or complement?43:00 – Portfolio construction: risk-weighting gold & Bitcoin44:00 – Return stacking explained49:00 – Trend following and dead money periods51:00 – Risks: quantum computing, regulation, behavior56:00 – Tokenization, blockchain rails, and innovation1:01:13 – Mike's one lesson for the average investor

Defined outcome ETFs have exploded in popularity, offering investors a way to combine downside protection with upside participation. In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jeff Chang of Vest Financial to break down the mechanics of buffer ETFs, how they fit into portfolios, the critiques they face, and where this space is headed. Jeff shares the origin story of Vest, the innovations that made these strategies accessible and how Buffer ETFs work behind the scenes.The origin of Vest and the impact of the Lehman collapse on product designHow buffer ETFs work and why they focus on the “first 10–15%” of drawdownsThe behavioral finance angle: making hedging simple and accessibleWhy 2022 highlighted the weaknesses of traditional 60/40 portfoliosThe mechanics of buffer ETFs: options structures and resetsPopular buffer levels and how investors are using themAddressing critiques: costs, beta instability, and comparisons to cash or commoditiesThe scalability of these strategies and potential market impactBehavioral vs. quantitative advantages of defined outcome fundsFuture developments, including applications to crypto and higher-volatility assetsJeff's lessons on investing, risk management, and staying invested00:00 – Introduction and the growth of defined outcome strategies02:00 – The genesis of Vest Financial after Lehman's collapse09:00 – Explaining buffer ETFs in simple terms14:00 – Who uses these strategies and why 2022 was a turning point18:00 – Mechanics of resets and protection at market highs22:00 – Range of buffers, caps, and investor demand27:00 – The options structures behind buffer ETFs30:00 – Liquidity, scalability, and market impact considerations34:00 – How investors are using buffers in portfolios38:00 – Tax efficiency inside the ETF wrapper39:00 – Addressing critiques: cash, commodities, and costs47:00 – Are these strategies more behavioral or quantitative?48:30 – The future of buffer strategies and expansion into crypto53:00 – Jeff's contrarian investing belief54:00 – The one lesson Jeff would teach every investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Tobias Carlisle — author, host of Value After Hours, and manager of the Acquirers Funds. Toby shares his candid perspective on market valuations, value investing's long struggle, and why he still believes mean reversion will eventually swing back in favor of small caps and value stocks. We also dive into AI, global markets, the Fed, housing, and where investors might find opportunity outside today's expensive U.S. mega-caps.Market valuations: why today's market may be more expensive than 1929, 2000, or 2020The pitfalls of relying on single-year P/E ratios and better long-term valuation measuresThe divergence between the “Magnificent 10” and the rest of the marketSmall caps, mid caps, and value: where Toby sees opportunity despite an earnings recessionAI as both a transformative force and a potential bubble-like capital cycleU.S. vs. international markets: structural advantages of American capitalism and where China is catching upThe Fed, interest rates, inflation, and how they really matter for value investorsHousing affordability and demographics as headwinds for the U.S. economyWhy Toby believes the “value vs. growth jaws” will eventually close00:00 – Are markets more expensive than 1929 and 2000?04:00 – Breaking down valuation charts: S&P, Russell, and mid/small caps10:00 – Why single-year P/Es mislead investors14:00 – Lessons from past bubbles: Nifty 50, dot-com era, and now19:00 – Large vs. small: the longest run for growth in history24:00 – AI's impact: transformative technology or capital cycle trap?32:00 – Toby's personal experience with AI (and why it disappoints him so far)33:00 – U.S. advantages vs. international markets and China's rise41:00 – Are today's U.S. valuations justified?45:00 – The Fed, interest rates, and speculation46:00 – Housing affordability and demographics as headwinds55:00 – Should value investors care about macro?59:00 – Closing question: Toby's contrarian belief on value vs. growth

In this episode, we sit down with Leigh Drogen of StarKiller Capital, alongside guest co-host Kai Wu, for a deep dive into crypto investing strategies, momentum in digital assets, and market-neutral DeFi yield opportunities. Leigh shares his perspective on where we are in the crypto evolution, the parallels with past technology cycles, and how to survive and advance in one of the most volatile asset classes in the world. From time-series and cross-sectional momentum to the economics of yield farming, this is a comprehensive look at building systematic strategies in digital assets.Topics Covered:The parallels between Web1 → Web2 and today's crypto transitionWhy the “fat protocol” thesis is giving way to the “fat app” eraThe role of Bitcoin vs. Ethereum in the next stage of crypto adoptionThe “survive and advance” investing philosophyTime-series momentum and cross-sectional momentum in cryptoHow VC behavior is changing momentum dynamicsSector-level momentum and narrowing lookback periodsStarKiller's approach to asset selection and quality screensBuilding a market-neutral DeFi yield strategyBootstrapping network effects and early liquidity provisioningDiligence, counterparty risk, and managing protocol riskThe competitive landscape and where the biggest edges remain in cryptoTimestamps:00:00 – Crypto's infrastructure milestones and evolution02:53 – The “fat protocol” vs. “fat app” thesis08:09 – Bitcoin's role vs. Ethereum's potential14:20 – “Survive and advance” and limiting drawdowns19:20 – Time-series vs. cross-sectional momentum23:00 – VC selling behavior and regime change in momentum31:47 – Sector-level momentum trends36:13 – Shorter lookback periods and market speed39:56 – StarKiller's investable universe and filtering process48:00 – Designing a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy52:56 – Rewards farming and bootstrapping network effects58:00 – Market-making vaults and APR opportunities01:00:10 – Managing counterparty and protocol risk01:04:02 – Has crypto alpha become more competitive?01:07:41 – One lesson for the average investor

How Aswath Damodaran Manages His Own Portfolio | Show Us Your PortfolioIn this episode of our Show Us Your Portfolio series, we go inside the personal investing approach of Aswath Damodaran — the “Dean of Valuation.” Known for his expertise in corporate valuation, Aswath rarely discusses how he manages his own money. We cover his philosophy, asset allocation, position sizing rules, lifecycle diversification, and the lessons he's learned from decades of investing his own wealth.What you'll learn in this episode:The core mission that drives Aswath's investing decisionsHow he thinks about risk, concentration, and position sizingWhy he avoids bonds and focuses on equity appreciationHis approach to strategic vs. tactical investingThe role of lifecycle diversification in portfolio constructionHow he decides when to buy and sell individual stocksWhy luck plays such a big role in investing resultsHis views on international exposure, dividends, gold, crypto, and alternative assetsPersonal spending habits and what he values most outside of investingTimestamps:00:00 – Investing's end game: preserve and grow wealth03:25 – How life stage changes investment approach07:41 – Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio08:47 – Why he holds no bonds10:12 – The power of compounding12:25 – Separating portfolio from income needs15:02 – Strategic vs. tactical investing18:00 – Managing concentration risk and trimming winners20:30 – Market concentration & the Mag 725:31 – How he buys and sells stocks32:46 – Hit rate and lessons from decades of investing37:26 – Lifecycle diversification41:00 – U.S. vs. international investing43:22 – Dividend investing45:35 – Gold, crypto, and alternative assets53:15 – What he drives and his ESG take54:39 – Spending for joy56:00 – Key investing advice for individuals57:37 – Life outside markets & creative thinking time

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Nick Maggiulli — author of Just Keep Buying and his new book The Wealth Ladder. Nick shares his six-level framework for building wealth, why mobility between wealth levels is rarer than most people think, and how your financial strategy should evolve as your net worth grows. From grocery freedom to travel freedom, and from the risks of ego to the realities of taxes and investing at different stages, this conversation offers a practical guide to managing and growing wealth at any level.Topics Covered:The six levels of wealth and how to move between them“Grocery freedom,” “restaurant freedom,” and “travel freedom”Why moving down wealth levels is rare — and why moving up is harder than you thinkStrategies for Level 2: the role of education and income growthStrategies for Level 3: shifting focus to investing and compoundingThe importance of diversification, taxes, and risk management at higher levelsHow ego can derail wealth preservationBehavioral shifts needed when your portfolio outpaces your incomeThe impact of interest rates, taxes, and spending habits on mobilityPlanning for unknown future liabilitiesTimestamps:00:00 – Introduction to The Wealth Ladder framework01:40 – Grocery freedom, restaurant freedom, and travel freedom05:26 – Why moving down wealth levels is rare09:20 – Strategies for moving from Level 2 to Level 315:35 – Shifting from income growth to investing focus24:24 – Diversification and risk management in Level 433:20 – Ego as the most expensive thing some people own39:15 – Interest rates, taxes, and spending across levels46:00 – Planning for unknown future liabilities50:45 – Wealth mobility across generations

In this episode of Excess Returns, we're joined by Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore one of the most important and overlooked aspects of Warren Buffett's investing evolution: his shift from tangible to intangible value. Based on Kai's research paper “Buffett's Intangible Moats,” we examine how Buffett's portfolio has evolved alongside the economy — and why the intangible drivers of brand equity, intellectual property, human capital, and network effects are central to understanding his success. Kai also shares how quantitative methods can be used to replicate Buffett's approach and what this means for investors today.Topics Covered:The three eras of Buffett's portfolio evolution: industrial, consumer, and information ageWhy Buffett's shift away from deep value investing began earlier than most realizeHow Charlie Munger helped change Buffett's approach — and why that matteredBuffett's preference for intangible assets like brand, IP, and network effectsHow to quantify intangible value and its four key componentsSurprising stats: Buffett rarely buys below book value and holds high price-to-book stocksKai's framework for building an intangible value score across stocksFactor attribution: quality and intangible value explain most of Buffett's alphaThe impact of portfolio size, sector biases, and evolution of circle of competenceHow to replicate Buffett's approach using a systematic, factor-based strategyWhy intangible value may be the "quality of tomorrow" and a forward-looking moatTimestamps:00:00 – Buffett's evolution from value to intangible investor01:55 – Why Kai researched Buffett's investing style now04:00 – The three eras of Buffett: Geico, Coca-Cola, Apple08:15 – How Buffett's thinking changed under Munger's influence10:00 – The rise of intangible moats and Buffett's definition of economic goodwill13:10 – Four components of intangible value15:10 – Mapping Buffett's holdings to intangible assets over time17:30 – Does Buffett get enough credit for evolving?20:30 – Only 8% of his holdings were bought below book value24:00 – Average price-to-book of Buffett's portfolio is 826:00 – Defining Kai's intangible value factor27:50 – Buffett becomes a value investor again — just using a different metric30:00 – Circle of competence vs. expanding opportunity set33:00 – Today's portfolio is 75% intangible by Kai's framework34:45 – Decomposing Buffett's returns into factors38:00 – Quality and intangible value explain 90% of Buffett's alpha43:15 – Sector exposure vs. true value tilt49:00 – Intangible value as a leading indicator of quality52:00 – Building a Buffett-style quant portfolio using two key factors54:00 – Why Buffett's future returns may be more muted

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Grant Williams for a wide-ranging conversation on what he calls the “Hundred Year Pivot.” Grant shares his view that we are living through a once-in-a-century inflection point — a deep, structural shift that is reshaping markets, institutions, societal values, and even individual behavior. This isn't about predicting the next trade; it's about understanding the tectonic changes happening beneath the surface and how investors can adapt, survive, and eventually thrive.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and special guest host Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital are joined by Verdad's Dan Rasmussen for a deep dive into the hidden risks lurking in private equity—and why they may be more dangerous than investors realize.Rasmussen, a long-time critic of the asset class, explains why the allure of illiquidity, stale pricing, and past outperformance has led to dangerous capital misallocations. Along the way, we explore the origins of the Yale model, the current liquidity crunch, volatility laundering, and whether small-cap value could be the better bet today. We also dig into bubbles, biotech, and whether AI will concentrate or diffuse economic power.

Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he's helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Mike Green returns to dissect the structural transformation underway in public markets due to the rise of passive investing. He explains why “there's no such thing as a passive investor,” how inelastic flows distort prices, and what it means for valuation, volatility, and the long-term sustainability of equity markets. From the math behind market multipliers to the policy distortions driving mega-cap dominance, Mike walks through the macro, micro, and behavioral implications of passive flows — and what investors and policymakers need to do about it.

Subscribe on Apple Podcsastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFcSubscribe on YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/excessreturnsIn the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The JimPaulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that definetoday's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for whythe private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may notbe on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despiterecord index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, theunderappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, andthe risks posed by policy uncertainty.Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, orjust trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts,and contrarian insight.

Policy uncertainty is rising—but markets seem unfazed. In this episode, we sit down with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, to explore the critical policy risks that investors may be underestimating or ignoring altogether.From the real-world implications of the tariffs to questions around Fed independence, fiscal stimulus, and housing market interventions, Libby provides an insider's perspective on what's happening in Washington—and why it matters more than the market suggests.She also discusses how policy risk differs from macroeconomic risk, how investors often price the wrong factors, and why the next shock may not come from where most expect.Topics covered include:Why policy risk remains underappreciated by marketsThe lasting impact of tariffs—and how they could evolveThe Big, Beautiful Tax Bill: What's real, what's hypeRisks to Fed independence and central bank credibilityGSE reform and the political tightrope in housingThe intersection of fiscal policy and market complacencyWhether you're focused on macro trends, portfolio positioning, or simply trying to understand what Washington might throw at markets next, this is a conversation you don't want to miss.

Why didn't the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today's economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now.We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you've been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking.Topics discussed include:Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycleThe real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panicHow the Fed's rate hikes lost their biteWhat's changed in the economy's sensitivity to ratesPrometheus' approach to stress testing and forecastingHow Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategyThe behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts

Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think.In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you're a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today's volatility.We discuss:What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matterHow options flows move billions without a fundamental triggerThe role of gamma, vanna, and charm in stock price actionWhy expiration cycles often mark major market turning pointsReal-world examples: GameStop, Tesla, Nvidia, and the S&P 500What traditional investors miss by ignoring these dynamicsEven if you've never traded an option, this episode will change how you see the market.

In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm's 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets.Paolini also shares his views on inflation, tariffs, AI, private markets, and the challenges of navigating a low-return, high-risk world. Whether you're a global macro watcher or a long-term investor thinking about regime shifts, this conversation offers a roadmap for the next five years.Topics covered include:Why the U.S. may no longer deserve its valuation premiumHow debt and protectionism threaten global growthWhy the next five years could see converging returns across regions and assetsThe investment case for bonds, credit, and emerging market debtAI's impact on productivity and equity concentrationThe future role of gold, crypto, and private assets in portfolios

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation.

Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken?In this episode, we're joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He also explains the concept of “Freedom Day” — a reimagined approach to retirement that's built on income, not asset totals.Whether you're a dividend investor, financial advisor, or retiree planning for long-term income, this conversation offers a fresh, practical framework you won't hear elsewhere.We discuss:Why dividend growth beats high yield over timeThe flaws in the 4% withdrawal ruleHow yield-on-cost changes investor behaviorRed flags hidden inside popular dividend ETFsHow “Freedom Day” redefines retirement planningRyan's quant + discretionary investment processThe underrated power of sell disciplineWhy “never add to losers” might boost your returns

In this episode, we're joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what's really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it.We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stickiness and record cancellations to zoning reform and climate-driven migration. Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or policy wonk, this conversation offers a comprehensive look at what's next for real estate in America.Topics discussed include:The shift to a buyer's market and why it mattersThe gap between seller expectations and buyer realityRegional pain points: Florida, Texas, and beyondWhy insurance costs and HOAs are distorting marketsBuyer psychology, affordability, and rent vs. own dynamicsTariffs, uncertainty, and interest rate volatilityThe policy fixes Daryl believes we need—fastClimate risk, migration, and Redfin's flood data experimentWhy your home shouldn't be your investment strategyLessons from game theory and behavioral economicsGuest Links:Daryl Fairweather's book Hate the Game is available now on Amazon and Audible.Follow Daryl on X, LinkedIn, and Substack @FairweatherPhD

Robert Hagstrom returns to discuss the investing principle he believes most value investors still misunderstand—despite decades of evidence from Warren Buffett. In this conversation, we explore why focus investing works, what traditional value investors got wrong about the Magnificent Seven, and how the industry's obsession with low P/E ratios and short-term tracking error leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom also reflects on lessons from working with Bill Miller and explains why evolving your investment approach is essential for long-term success.In this episode, we discuss:How Hagstrom fell into money management by accidentWhat Buffett's 1983 letter taught him about investingThe dangers of rigid value investing frameworksWhy most active managers fail over timeThe key to compounding that investors overlookDrawdowns, tracking error, and the psychology of focus investingWhy private equity's appeal is mostly an illusionWhat Buffett's surprise CEO handoff really means for Berkshire Hathaway

Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are MissingIn this episode, we're joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm's 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now.We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are misreading the current market environment.Megan also shares how she's thinking about portfolio positioning in a world where traditional recession indicators are breaking down and valuations remain elevated.Topics Discussed Include:Why consumer strength may be a mirageThe risk of complacency around inflationTariffs, trade imbalances, and global uncertaintyThe growing consequences of U.S. and global debtWhy small/mid-caps and international stocks may offer better valueFixed income positioning in a “higher for longer” environmentThe case for active management over passive in today's marketOpportunities and risks in alternatives and private assetsLessons investors can learn from recent volatilityIf you're looking for a thoughtful macro perspective and practical ideas for navigating today's complex market landscape, this conversation is for you.

GMO's Warren Chiang joins us for a deep dive into the art and science of systematic value investing. In this episode, Warren shares how his team has refined traditional value investing to adapt to an intangible-heavy world, the structural reasons deep value is historically cheap today, and how top-down insights from GMO's asset allocation group are implemented in practice. We also explore how ESG, momentum, macro, and geopolitical shifts—including the China decoupling—are integrated into portfolio construction, and what investors can learn from GMO's global perspective on valuations.Topics Covered:Why GMO didn't abandon value—it improved itThe difference between "value" and "valuation"How restating financial statements improves valuation accuracyGMO's two-step top-down and bottom-up ETF strategyThe deep value opportunity: why it's never been cheaperHow GMO incorporates quality in a forward-looking wayWhy momentum and macro are excluded from some strategiesHow ESG is treated as a portfolio risk—not virtue signalingThe China supply chain shift and the Beyond China strategyPassive investing's long-term impact on price discoveryManaging risk, constraints, and position sizing in quant portfoliosWhether today's market mirrors the dot-com bubbleWhat's driving valuation gaps across global markets

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment, policy risk, and the future of globalization.

David Giroux, CIO and Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, has achieved something rare in investing—beating his Morningstar peer group for 17 consecutive years. In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy, including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities, adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio. He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles, and why long-term thinking remains a powerful edge in today's short-term-obsessed market.We cover:Why most investors overlook high-quality GARP stocks—and how Giroux takes advantageHow he navigates market cycles with 5-year IRR forecastsWhy long-term thinking gives him a contrarian advantageThe impact of AI on productivity, employment, and portfolio marginsHis quantitative and qualitative approach to evaluating companiesWhat investors get wrong about financials, utilities, and passive investingThe CEOs he admires most—and what makes them exceptionalWhy he thinks macro forecasts (including Fed-watching) offer little value

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for an insightful, opinionated, and often humorous discussion on global market dynamics, the Mag 7, structural portfolio shifts, and what it takes to be a successful generalist investor. From the “Chart of Truth” to the hidden value in tire stocks, Rupert brings decades of experience and a distinctive lens to markets, risk, and opportunity.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what's next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify opportunities in a complex macro environment.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today's economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today's markets using Research Affiliates' capital markets expectations.Full Paper:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1080-stimulus-does-not-stimulate

In this episode of Teach Me Like I'm 5, options expert Kris Abdelmessih breaks down one of the most foundational—and misunderstood—concepts in options trading: put-call parity. Using Lego analogies, homemade spreadsheets, and Fast & Furious references, Kris shows how options are like building blocks you can combine to create any payoff you want—including replicating a stock itself.Whether you're a beginner trying to understand options basics or a seasoned investor looking for deeper insights into synthetic positions and implied interest rates, this episode is packed with practical lessons presented in the most approachable way possible.What We Cover:Why calls and puts are “the same” through the lens of put-call parityHow to visualize and replicate stock payoffs using only optionsThe concept of synthetic positions: synthetic stock, calls, and putsHow put-call parity collapses complex strategies into basic building blocksThe real mechanics behind covered calls—and what they really areHow professional traders use options pricing to infer interest rates and stock borrowing conditionsA deep dive into "box spreads" and how they replicate zero-coupon bonds

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most complex and pressing issues facing successful investors today: what to do with concentrated stock positions. Whether from employee stock compensation or a major investment win, holding too much of a single stock presents serious tax and diversification challenges. Our guests—Wes Gray of Alpha Architect, Sri Narayan of Cache Financial, and guest host Dave Nadig—break down the innovative solutions that are changing the game. From exchange funds to Section 351 conversions, this is a masterclass in modern wealth and risk management.Topics Covered:The problem with concentrated stock positions and why it's getting worseHow stock-based compensation fuels investor overexposureWhy traditional exchange funds fall short—and how Cache is solving itUnderstanding Section 351 ETF conversions and tax-deferred diversificationThe mechanics behind Cache's NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 strategiesHow exchange funds work: structure, lockups, and liquidityUsing ETFs to rebalance and solve diversification constraintsReal estate allocations and the 20% illiquid asset requirementCosts, fees, and transparency of the modern exchange fund modelRegulatory and legal perspectives behind the structurePractical advice for advisors and investors with low-basis positionsHow to access, evaluate, and engage with Cache and Alpha Architect solutions

What does it mean to come of age during chaos—and how does that shape the generations who must lead us through it? In this thought-provoking episode of Rabbit Hole, Dave Nadig speaks with Neil Howe—author of The Fourth Turning Is Here—about the evolving role of Gen X in today's world, the generational dynamics underpinning societal shifts, and what history teaches us about crisis, community, and rebirth. This is not just a theory session—it's a practical guide to understanding where we are in the cycle and what might come next.Topics Covered:Why generational transitions are slowing—and why that mattersThe Gen X identity crisis: from latchkey kids to future eldersHow community rises from conflict during fourth turningsMillennials' collective investing mindset vs. Gen X contrarianismThe historical role of financial repression and inflation in crisesParallels between Gen X and the Lost GenerationHow institutions are built—and who builds themWill the next societal reboot be state-driven or community-driven?Global synchronization of generational crises and what that impliesWhat comes after the fourth turning—and how Gen X fits into it