Saxo Market Call

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42s3qj1   - In today's podcast, we note the market's choppy, but in the end positive embrace of the slightly softer US CPI data point yesterday as US treasury yields eased. On that note, we suggest that a crisis is almost needed to justify the market's forward expectations for the Fed, as pricing of significant easing starting later this year intensified yesterday. Could the debt ceiling issue drive that possible crisis scenario? Elsewhere, we preview today's Bank of England meeting and wonder whether the recent sterling surge means this will drive a "sell-the-fact" moment, as seemingly everything that tries to get moving ends up mean reverting (former EUR strength now erased, former JPY weakness now partially erased, etc..) We also talk Disney's woeful streaming results and much more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Responses to our new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey are pouring in. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content this Friday's podcast:  https://bit.ly/42jEiLg   - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nM683M   - In today's podcast, we note that, while today's US CPI release is the US data highlight of the week, that it is unlikely to drive a significant shift in forward Fed expectations unless there is a rather profound shock in the numbers (more likely on a hot number than a cooler one). Elsewhere, we talk Stanley Druckenmiller's imminent recession and "hard landing" call, the dire situation for US office REITS and dark clouds over Blackstone on the commercial real estate worries made worse by the recent bank turmoil, crude oil & grains, incoming earnings, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Please take the new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey: your weekly chance to provide feedback and drive the content of the Wednesday and Friday podcasts!   Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NN4uK1   - In today's podcast, we note that the market is scratching around for catalysts as we await US CPI data tomorrow and wonder whether it will even prove a catalyst. The most interesting news overnight was the surprising plunge in China's imports in April, further challenging the "re-opening" narrative. We also look at gold, stocks to watch today, the challenges for Sweden's financial system, earnings to watch and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nClmbx   - Today we look at the big sentiment shift on Friday, in part driven by strong US April payrolls growth (although do note the negative revision of March data), but also driven by improved sentiment in US regional banks. We look at remarkably stretched positioning in US treasury futures for at least part of the curve, highlight the big shift in currencies late last week, note the treacherous shifts in the oil market, break down the week ahead in earnings, note the geopolitical risks in owning Apple shares, Warren Buffett's concerns on the US-China relationship, the week ahead on the macro calendar, especially the Wednesday US April CPI release, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42jqelf   - Today we look at yesterday's FOMC policy statement and press conference delivering, by design, as little as possible to markets and then the late slump in risk sentiment and US treasury yields that was driven by another US regional bank, PacWest declaring that it was "reviewing its strategic options". This after Fed Chair Powell declared that US banks are "sound and resilient" in yesterday' presser. We also look at the coincident spike in gold prices on this development, crude plunging again, copper near support, incoming earnings (including from Novo Nordisk), stocks to watch, the ECB coming up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40XRS5t   - Today we look at yesterday's rocky market session on the March US JOLTS survey showing far fewer job openings than expected, but also on further turmoil and concern related to US regional banks. We also ponder what the reaction function to tonight's FOMC meeting will be, when the market has already fully priced a pivot and aggressive rate cut cycle into 2024 (Fed funds priced to drop to 4.40% by end of this year and another 100 basis points or more by mid-next year). Elsewhere, more bearish action in commodity prices and FX, JPY jumps on yield dump, and mixed news in incoming earnings, with bright spots but the overall earnings season and guidance heading south. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LwsIpc   - Today we look at the US equity still poised just under key cycle resistance, although the narrow rally in megacap names had the Nasdaq 100 testing new cycle highs over he last couple of days. We look at FX developments, including a surprise RBA rate hike overnight and an extension of the aggressive JPY sell-off which has taken USDJPY to critical resistance just ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. On that front, we wonder whether the Fed delivering the expected pivot to a glide path on rates could prove a "sell-the-fact" setup, noting at least that is far cheaper to hedge downside risk with much lower implied options volatility. Incoming earnings, including from AMD, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LGbXJm   - Today we look at the US equity market closing up against cycle resistance as earnings season has impressed and as the market seems in a celebratory mood on the prospects for the Fed pivot to a glide path this week after an anticipated 25 basis point hike, currently priced as the final hike for the cycle. Elsewhere, we look at FX, where the JPY continues to suffer a drubbing, and at position in US FX futures, which show the EURUSD position stretched. Notably EURJPY is hitting its highest levels in almost 15 years. Grains, crude oil, incoming earnings reports and the macro calendar for the week ahead and more all on today's podcast, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/449Xw7u   - Today we look at the market zipping back higher as the busiest day of the earnings season impressed even if Amazon's guidance spooked after the close. We also look at a very dovish Bank of Japan meeting as it sets itself up for a very leisurely policy review. The ability for the JPY to drop further will quickly depend on whether yields elsewhere turn higher again, however. A discussion of whether Germany increasingly sees China as a rival, industrial metals and food commodities and much more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Lc0O1x   - Today we look at a bit of deja vu all over again as we saw a negative session yesterday in the US followed by a megacap - this time Meta - reporting after hours. We note that regional bank stocks continue to struggle at cycle lows. Some of the weak sentiment yesterday was on the Republicans passing their spending bill in the House that would lift the debt limit, but with no one having a clue on next steps as this bill is dead-on-arrival in the Senate, much less Biden's desk. Elsewhere, crude oil dropped sharply again, while gold is sticky near 2,000. Today brings perhaps the busiest earnings report calendar of the season, while the first BoJ meeting with Governor Ueda at the helm is up tomorrow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nh6xG0   - Today we look at the sharp sell-off in US equities in the cash session yesterday, in part on a weak April US Consumer Confidence reading, but also noting the big sentiment shift back to the positive side after hours on Microsoft and Alphabet reported earnings. It is also difficult to discern how much the US debt ceiling issue is weighing on the US treasury market (and therefore supporting the Japanese yen yesterday). Elsewhere, we look at metals and crude oil and stocks to watch, rounding up major companies reporting and previewing Meta reporting today after the close. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LqrFbg   - Today we look at the most rangebound US market since late 2021 and wonder what will spark the next momentum move in either direction as we note the confusing evidence that various macro data points are throwing off about the US economy. We also note the increasingly downbeat earnings outlook from analysts and the huge incoming load of earnings reports, including from Microsoft and Alphabet today after the close. In commodities, we look at investor flows and the latest declines in wheat prices, while the weak US dollar is really mostly a strong Euro at the moment. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LoIaEG   - Today we look at global markets in very different places as slumping commodities are a huge question mark on the quality of the recovery and the China re-opening story, while Europe has gunned to within reach of all time (non-inflation adjusted) highs. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling concern level continues to intensify while we try to identify the next steps this week that will determine whether the odds for a mishap are rising or falling. For equities, this week brings the heart of earnings season, with a long list of megacaps and bellwether names reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UWzOYn   - Today features Saxo Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen. In the market wrap session, we take a look at market sentiment softening, in part on soft US data and Tesla's very bad day, but perhaps as well as the debt ceiling crunch time is drawing nearer and is finding expression in corners of the markets. We also take a look at crude oil retreating further, while iron ore spilled lower again confounding the China re-opening bulls. Steen takes us through his thoughts on the debt ceiling issue, the China re-opening story, but especially the market's nervousness as geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, as we discuss the recent seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde on "Central Banks in a fragmenting world" and all of its geopolitical and policy implications, adding to that US President Biden's setting up the May 19-21 G-7 meeting in Japan as a key incoming event risk on possible further moves against investment in China. Today's pod also features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3mI0PSJ   - Today we discuss the very quiet US equity market, highlighting that VIX has dropped to the lowest since late 2021 and with the gains this year driven by a very narrow slice of the largest megacap names, which have yet to report earnings for the cycle. Concerns looking forward include liquidity and the debt ceiling issue approaching crunch time. We also take a look at Tesla's results that saw that stock sharply lower after the close. Elsewhere, we discuss metals, climate change risks intensifying ironically due to cleaner air from new shipping fuel standards, and the big shift from La Nina to El Nino weather patterns underway and possible impacts. Incoming macro data and more also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UKZYx5   - Today we discuss the US market continuing to hold its breath ahead of key cycle resistance as European equities are also near all-time highs, at least in the EuroStoxx50. It's important to note that the US market rally has been driven by a short list of megacap names. Elsewhere, we round up Netflix and ASML and preview Tesla's earnings report after the close, and many US regional banks will be reporting in coming days, particularly tomorrow, so we should have a broad picture of the state of play for US bank stress by Friday. In commodities, we look at crude oil and natural gas, noting ETF flows that suggest investors are reducing exposure to oil upside. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UIHxZG   - Today we discuss the market in a holding pattern, which is actually quite impressive given the further sharp advance in US treasury yields, in part on strong US data, including a whiplash turnaround in the April Empire Manufacturing survey. Is this a sign that the industrial policy initiatives the US has announced over the last few quarters are finally working their way into the numbers? Elsewhere, we note a seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde before a US think tank, in which she riffed on the "fragmenting" world and policy imperatives, including the aims of fiscal policy, CB interdependence and more. We will follow up in coming days on the importance of this speech. Elsewhere, we consider stocks to watch this earnings season, the latest on gold and wheat & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic  

Link to Part 1 of this podcast:  In this continuation of the conversation from Part 1, we feature special guest Emil Sarauw, head of AI with Droids Agency, who takes us through his thoughts on all things Generative AI, from its applications to its implications. These span from envisioning how AI can provide a tremendous boost to productivity to some of the dangers it brings in terms of our ability as a society to trust information that is presented to us in all forms, from text to images and even video. We also have thoughts on how blockchain might address some of the latter dangers. Emil also peeks into the near and more distant future on the how the AI revolution will impact our professional and even personal lives. Also on the pod are Saxo's Peter Garnry and John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic  

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43FXvrC   - Friday saw a solid jump in US treasury yields, one that the incoming data didn't really justify, suggesting that market players have an agenda here. Could that agenda be the sense that there was an overreaction to the immediate implications for Fed policy from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis? The results and outlook from regional US banks this week should help answer that question. We also look at the bump in US yields helping the USD to reverse sharply from recent weakness and offer extensive commodity market coverage, especially on positioning, crude oil and copper. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KVuJMl   - Today we look at the market posting a strong session as US data was benign and as the US dollar rolled over to new cycle lows. Hard to read too much into local price action, however, as we await the Q1 earnings season kick-off today with the large US banks reporting and a heavy earnings calendar next week. We also delve into metals and commodity performance generally here, the end of the EuroDollar futures market as SOFR futures take over, the macro calendar for the week ahead and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UBoG2W   - Today we look at the choppy reception of the US March CPI figures and evidence that inflation remains a problem, with the risk that energy prices re-aggravate the inflation story in coming months as oil breaks higher. The US dollar is on its knees and breaking lower - a situation that could extend here. We also look at key stocks to watch, including the great news from luxury giant LVMH and preview the coming attractions for this earnings season set to kick off on Friday. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/4001mwQ   - Today we look at the market continuing to hold its breath, likely in anticipation of today's US March CPI release, where a strong directional surprise could unleash the latest round of zany intraday volatility on 0DTE (zero-day-to-expiry) S&P 500 options. We also discuss the compelling Japanese equity market, crude oil breakout potential, softs and precious metals on fire and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UuuM4T   - Today we look at a market that doesn't want to stay down as signs of incoming economic weakness aren't yet urgent enough to spook confidence, while we're also unlikely to see a significant reheating of inflation concerns. This could mean we have room for an extension of the equity rally, provided earnings season doesn't bring worrying guidance. We also take a look at FX, crude oil and wheat, stocks to watch, the economic calendar for the rest of the week and more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ub9x81   - In this special edition of the podcast, Saxo's John J. Hardy and Peter Garnry discuss the Generative AI phenomenon, both defining what it is and offering a few thoughts on its enormous potential impacts as Generative AI applications mature. The discussion also turns to the opportunities and especially the difficulties in finding publicly traded companies that are directly involved with Generative AI as virtually all of the pure-play activity in the space is still in the start-up phase. Plenty of food for thought on this technology, which is likely set to be the third great computing revolution after PC's were introduced in the late 70's and early 80's, then the internet arrived in the late 1990's and early 2000's.  Note: Sequoia Capital piece referenced extensively in the podcast.   

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mi1Smo   - Yesterday saw a change of tone in the US on the far weaker than expected JOLTS survey of job openings, with the market reaction seemingly far more sharp than a single data point might justify, particularly in US treasuries. This sets up even more focus on incoming US labor market data in coming days. A letter from JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon bemoaning sustained risks for banks also spooked the market and banking stocks. We also discuss the massive wave of electrification to come and some of the equities that are involved in that process, discuss FX stories like the surprising large RBNZ hike overnight and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ubf7r1   - Today we struggle a bit with the market backdrop, as equities pulled back higher to post new local highs in places despite the huge surge in crude oil prices after the weekend OPEC cut announcement, perhaps as treasury yields wilted on the back of a weak ISM Manufacturing survey out of the US. More important incoming data lies ahead. We check in on FX after the RBA hold on further tightening overnight, discuss the crude oil market after the huge weekend gap, talk gold and wheat, and look at stocks to watch, including miner Teck Resources and biotech name Illumina. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nx9FCy   - Today we look at the strong close for US equities on Friday as they surged into month-, quarter-, and Japanese financial year-end, especially driven by a megacap surge and hype in names linked to the generative artificial intelligence phenomenon. The party was partly spoiled at the weekend on OPEC announcing a surprise cut in production, which triggered a several dollar jolt higher in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at the week ahead on the macro calendar, with the RBA set to meet Tuesday, and look at Tesla's delivery numbers for Q1, grains and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nCn9gi   - Today we look at the narrow slice of companies, especially the market cap heavyweights that are taking the big US indices higher, while we note that all does not look well beneath the surface. We also break down the somewhat incoherent market view on the Fed vs. equities, as Fed rate cuts later this year would seem to require a rapid deterioration of the economic outlook. A look at Tesla and CATL looking to build batteries in the US, Netflix news, the busy economic calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zkMuOK   - In today's podcast we talk about the improved momentum in equities driven by technology stocks and especially with yesterday's best performing theme being semiconductors driven by AI focus, strong EV demand, and improving demand for memory chips in data centers. We also talk Sweden as a showcase of the impact from tighter credit conditions and the new financial year in Japan. On commodities we cover oil with a focus on recent changes to the Brent crude contract and the slowing production in the US due to cost pressures, lastly on commodities we highlight recent developments in the grain markets. Finally, we cover better than expected earnings from H&M and talk about US non-financial corporate profit margins reached the highest levels in 2022 since the end of WWII. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zdrdX2   - Risk sentiment is on the rise with the second straight session yesterday in equities with procyclical industry groups such as energy, transportation, banks, and mining rallying. Today's sentiment is extended with news that Alibaba is splitting into six separate business rallying 13% on the news. We also got a strong outlook from Lululemon yesterday and better than expected US March consumer confidence highlighting a strong US economy despite the obvious cracks at banks and real estate. In today's podcast we also cover the positive momentum in oil markets and gold that continues to benefit from the recent nervousness over banks. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TMxqmn   - Today we note that, while bank stocks bounced strongly in the US yesterday and yields mean reverted back higher, the broader market was uninspired by these developments and tech stocks sold off after failing once again to take out the key cycle resistance. We continue to fret the next shoes to drop and bemoan the lack of good indicators to get a sense of where the worst pressures in the system lie (likely in the darker corners of shadow banking and private equity). A look at rebounding commodities, especially oil and copper, stocks to watch, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JQz81z   - Today we look at the market trying to breathe a sigh of relief, but with concerns lingering, not only on the risk of another round of bank turmoil as the weakest links may be in commercial real estate and real estate exposures, but also on the likelihood that this latest crisis has brought the recession forward via an incoming credit crunch. We delve into earnings for the week ahead, commodities positioning and precious metals, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TD3fhj   - Today we look at the multi-speed market, as tech stocks tried to pump on vague new language from US Treasury Secretary Yellen aimed at softening prior comments on the official posture to banking system turmoil. Alas, US bank stocks were in for a further drubbing yesterday and we also discuss the negative focus on European banks is pummeling sentiment into early trading in Europe as well. Also on the call: the knock-on effects of all of this into FX, earnings watch next week, the China re-opening story fighting for attention and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40eSCUn   - Today we look at the market's negative reaction to Yellen clearly stating that she has never discussed "anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits" at the same time Powell was holding the FOMC press conference. While the Fed kept its dot plot policy forecasts unchanged, the market ignored this as the Fed is clearly pivoting with this latest statement, which introduced new language on recent developments impacting credit conditions and the economy. We assess the impact of Yellen's statements across markets, including gold and FX, consider the situation for European banks, especially on real estate pressures, note stocks to watch, preview the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TDgNtk   - Today we discuss the uncertainty around the Fed's interest rate decision and guidance at today's FOMC meeting, where the Powell Fed faces the unenviable task of weighing financial stability risks against ongoing inflation risks, with the market leaning more strongly for a hike now but watching whether the Fed is willing to cave on its "higher for longer" forward guidance. And in the event the Fed does pause, will the market celebrate this or be spooked that the Fed sees things as worse than feared? We also look at where unease is greatest among global banks, note hot UK CPI numbers in this morning, crude oil, grains positioning surprises and gold. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yVYfei   - Today we look at the eerie calm across markets after the two consecutive weekend interventions to deal with systemic risks from failing banks. We also discuss whether the FOMC will be willing to market its forecasts anywhere near where market expectations have shifted in its forward guidance at tomorrow's meeting, look at copper, natural gas and platinum, stocks to watch, including Amazon, where we wonder if activist investors could soon make an appearance and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3n7RIdy   - Today we look at the weekend's shotgun wedding arranged by the SNB that sees UBS taking over Credit Suisse with a number of liquidity guarantees and a massive eyebrow-raising wipeout of Credit Suisse's Tier1 debt. That last move has markets unsettled on the implications as it breaks the assumed rules of engagement for bankruptcies, putting bank debt and bank shares under heavy pressure this morning.  We also look at what the Fed may do on Wednesday after the crazy repricing of the yield curve, the week ahead for equity earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42mi0sE   - Today we note the strong comeback in sentiment yesterday after an initial dip on the ECB moving ahead with a 50 basis point hike that surprised many and was initially read as a possible policy mistake. An injection of cash into troubled lender First Republic Bank in the US by peers in the banking industry was also behind some of the brightening in sentiment yesterday. We talk through the difficulty in interpreting market signals here when the first move in a shock is simply to reverse prior trends, something that doesn't always add information value. We also look at positive versus negative interpretations of the backdrop, action in key commodities and the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FuIoXD   - Today we continue to highlight the tremendous volatility in asset markets, particularly bonds, on the bank-centered turmoil and wonder whether the extension of a lifeline by the Swiss National Bank to Credit Suisse will provide any calm beyond the immediate relief that the latest weakest link isn't set to break. We also look at the ECB's impossible task at its meeting today as it juggles concerns with financial stability and its formerly most-hawkish guidance, we note the turmoil slipping into the commodity markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lddufp   - Today we look at the market's attempt to piece together some calm after the sudden trauma and lightning official response/bailout of depositors after the SVB bankruptcy. We highlight the need for more time to assess the fallout, continuing to note the longer term risks to credit transmission if recent events have served as a wake-up call for depositors, who have yet to demand higher returns on their savings. A look at earnings and macro data on watch through next week's FOMC meeting as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/404Z6Vj   - Still very early days, as we ponder the ongoing fallout from the turmoil in the US banking system, which has triggered a massive collapse in yields as the market brings forward the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. One significant danger is that we risk a credit crunch as banks are forced to scramble for funding and deposits. We highlight areas and indicators that are flashing red, the impact of the situation into currencies, precious metals, and equity sectors. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZFKGew   - We follow up on Friday's big event with SVB Financial failing as a financial institution which set in motion a US government backstop of uninsured deposits over the weekend which extended to Signature Bank which was also taken over by the US government yesterday. We focus on the market reaction across equities, US bonds, interbank spreads, and gold with our main message being that nobody knows what will happen next. It is all one big guessing this week on fallout from the failure of SVB Financial. Today's pod features Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Li0Ne9   - Markets got big jolt yesterday when Silvergate Capital announced a liquidation of the bank that has suffered from the implosion in cryptocurrencies. The event cascaded into SVB Financial (Silicon Valley Bank) plunging 60% in the main session and another 20% in extended trading as the bank has been forced to sell bonds at great losses. These moves cascaded further into other banking stocks and led equity futures lower in Asian and European trading. JD.com also announced a weaker than expected Q1 revenue outlook saying the Chinese consumer is weaker than estimated and that the extended lockdown has impacted behaviour. In today's podcast we go through the implications of the SVB Financial fallout and what it means for markets moves and especially with the large trading volumes in zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) options. We also cover the JPY following the BoJ meeting and the moves in CHF on banking risk-off. Finally, we cover Fed Funds pricing, gold and other commodities, and next week's earnings releases which will focus on Volkswagen, BMW, Adobe, and Lennar. A warning shot has been fired yesterday. Be vigilant on risks today and stay safe. Today's pod features Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry, and Ole S. Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FaQOmL   - Today we look at a market that is holding its breath in anticipation of incoming US data to refresh the probabilities that the Fed feels forced to re-accelerate the pace of rate hikes at the March 22. But as well, all traders need to consider the Bank of Japan meeting risk up overnight tonight as a surprisingly large adjustment from Kuroda could set even global bond and equity markets on edge, not just the Japanese yen. We also look at interesting stories in equities, from the latest on ASML to CATL and other companies. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kVUQZw   - Today we look at the market swooning as it is forced to price the Fed terminal rate higher still after Fed Chair Powell pointed to higher rates than previously expected and even expressed a willingness to re-accelerate the pace of hikes if the "totality" of data points toward higher inflation risks again. We also look at the reaction to Powell's rhetoric in the US yield curve and across commodities and FX. Thoughts on earnings from cybersecurity firms Darktrace and Crowdstrike and from Adidas and much more also on today's pod, which features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L16cpC   - Today we look at the choppy equity market failing to extend the upside momentum for now as we triangulate mid-range ahead of a series of event risks, among these two days of Fed Chair Powell testimony starting today. Overnight, Australia's RBA announced a dovish hike, clearly looking for excuses to pause its tightening regime - is this a policy mistake in the making? We also look at evidence on what may have driven China's about-face on stimulating its economy, crude oil, natgas and wheat & other grain markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Zp2Y3s   - Today we look at the strong comeback in equity markets Friday as yields dipped sharply, providing some relief after the recent strong ramp higher. Still, it is interesting to note that inflation expectations may be undergoing a sea change as well, which has come to the aid of gold. Elsewhere, we gauge the market reaction to China's policy signals, note the busy week ahead on the central bank front, with the RBA up tonight, Fed Chair Powell out speaking in testimony before Congressional panels tomorrow and Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, which will be Governor Kuroda's final meeting. This and much more on today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3SJstKl   - Today we discuss the lack of conviction in the market after the action spilled lower below the 200-day moving average but failed to follow through and backed up to close the session higher, despite fresh pressure from rising yields, as the 10-year treasury benchmark took out the 4.00% level. In equities, a breakdown of what European equities have to offer relative to US equities. In commodities, focus on gold and natural gas. A look at the week ahead calendar for both earnings and especially macro as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/41Bzt00   - Today we look at the market closing on a weak note on a fresh rise in Treasury yields and then spilling lower in later trading after Tesla's investor event was a damp squib. Elsewhere, inflation remains very much on the brain in Europe, with today's Eurozone-wide inflation print for February rounding out the set of February CPI reports across the bloc. In FX, sterling feels the heat on dithering BoE governor Bailey. In commodities, the latest on copper and crude oil and in equities, thoughts on where we are in the current historic drawdown. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EOkrdE   - Today we look at the stunning official February Manufacturing PMI numbers out China overnight, which suggested the most rapid pace of expansion in China's manufacturing sector in over a decade. We look at how this development propagated through commodities and currencies, as well as the impact on EU rates after hot CPI numbers from France and Spain yesterday. Thoughts on inflation and real growth, stocks and earnings to watch, weakening US Consumer Confidence expectations and what that signals and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3m6SAyJ   - Today we look at yields remaining near cycle highs, with US equities struggling into the close after an odd, intraday rally stumbled. Note that end of month is rolling into view today after a terrible month for bonds, with the US 2-year yield up 60 basis points month-to-date into today. On that note, we delve into whether yields really have any bearing on company investment. Elsewhere, pondering what inspires crude to pull itself out of the range, forward curves in the commodity space, the struggling JPY, Tesla's incoming Investor Day and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic