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6 episodes with andy constan
7 episodes with andy constan
6 episodes with andy constan
5 episodes with andy constan
3 episodes with andy constan
3 episodes with andy constan
3 episodes with andy constan
2 episodes with andy constan
2 episodes with andy constan
Andy Constan stops by to discuss today's US macro backdrop. Importantly, this discuss was recorded on 4/24. Since then the narrative around the tax bill has gotten incrementally more stimulative. Do what you will with that information.Bill reached out to Andy after following him for a while on Twitter. Andy appears to use Twitter to educate, inform, and journal thoughts. Hence why he was invited to the show.As for Andy's formal background, his bio reads as follows:Andy Constan graduated with a degree in Bioengineering from the University of Pennsylvania in 1986.Following he spent 35 years investing and trading global equities, spending 17 years at Salomon Brothers.Following he started honing his Macroeconomic Knowledge in 2010 working at Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard.Since then he has worked on growing Damped Spring Advisors.We hope you enjoy the conversation.
After a two-year hiatus, we're excited to announce that we are bringing back the Prometheus Podcast. To kick off our first episode, we're joined by our friend Andy Constan of Damped Spring. Andy's the founder and CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, with a long track record at some of the top macro hedge funds in the world, including Bridgewater and Brevan Howard.In this episode, Aahan and Andy dive into Andy's investment framework — from the structuring beta and alpha portfolios to the role of risk premium, positioning, and the evolving interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. They also discuss the macro backdrop and evaluate the most attractive reward-to-risk opportunities using Andy's framework. This conversation was equally educational and actionable, and we're sure you'll enjoy it, so make sure to give it a listen. Until next time. Get full access to Prometheus Research at www.prometheus-macro.com/subscribe
Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning
In this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues. This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains. Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm.Main Topics Covered:Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers.Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment.Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration's aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved.National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan.DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.
In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy's trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today's volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don't miss Andy's unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing!Main Topics Covered:Andy's “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.”The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant's goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks.The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today's market, and why they're farther out of the money than many expect.The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative.The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations.Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization's inflationary pressures.The Federal Reserve's current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they're a poor choice for long-term investors.Andy's contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.
In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0 (10:01) Skale Ad (10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio (17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies (25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (34:51) Skale Ad (35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't) (38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries (44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates (52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts (01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment (01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this episode of Nalu Finance, we welcome Andy Constan, CEO and CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, to explore the fascinating world of macroeconomic investing. Andy shares his journey from working at renowned firms like Bridgewater and Brevan Howard to founding Damped Spring, a research firm that has garnered an impressive following among top institutional investors. We discuss his unique investment philosophy, the role of market dynamics, and the lessons learned from navigating significant market events.Whether you're interested in understanding macro strategies, the impact of central bank policies, or how to stay ahead in turbulent markets, this episode offers invaluable insights. Tune in to learn how Andy's expertise can help you think differently about risk, investments, and portfolio management.
In this episode, we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios. Key topics include: What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected markets Why U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continue The role of currency exposure in international investing How passive investing flows affect international markets Different perspectives on optimal international allocation strategies Featuring insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification. Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions.
Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning
In this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios. Key topics include: What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected markets Why U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continue The role of currency exposure in international investing How passive investing flows affect international markets Different perspectives on optimal international allocation strategies Featuring insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification. Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/
Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning
Join Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand as they break down some of the most insightful frameworks from our interviews with macro thinker Andy Constan. Drawing from multiple conversations with Andy, they explore: Andy's experience at Bridgewater Associates and their fascinating approach to systematic investing The four pillars of macro analysis that help make sense of complex market environments A practical framework for evaluating market deleveraging events Essential lessons about personal portfolio management and the importance of having clear financial goals The realities of working in the financial industry and managing concentrated stock positions Andy's ability to break down complex topics into simple, actionable frameworks has made him one of the most valuable voices in macro investing. Whether you're a professional investor or managing your personal portfolio, this episode offers important insights into how to think about markets and risk in a systematic way. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/
Andy Constan says markets want a convertible bond for crypto as he discusses why investors might be interested in MicroStrategy (MSTR). “They essentially create a call that lasts for 5 years,” which he says has good value if the underlying has good value, and if the return on the bond has good value. He details how investors can take the opposite position and hedge. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
In Episode 389 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan, the founder and proprietor of Damped Spring Advisors about why he believes the Federal Reserve is at risk of losing the long-end of the bond market, which would lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a hard landing for the economy. Andy and Demetri spend the first hour discussing the subject of a recent letter he published in which he warns that the Federal Reserve, by continuing to lower interest rates and ease monetary policy, could cause a sell-off in long-bonds and a rise in term premia, paradoxically tightening financial conditions while intending to ease them. They further discuss Treasury issuance, management of the Fed's balance sheet, the weighted average maturity of assets in the central bank's portfolio, and how conditions in the U.S. economy measure against the Fed's summary of economic projections. In the second hour, Kofinas and Constan dig into the government's finances, its fiscal picture, and how Trump's election may exacerbate or alleviate trends that have been in place for decades. They also discuss equity markets, the broadening of the equity rally beyond the Magnificent Seven that's been underway this year, earnings expectations for these companies, whether they're elevated or conservative, and how we should go about valuing them. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/11/2024
Andy Constan and Cem Karsan join Mike and Harley for a debate on market structure. For more information, https://www.simplify.us Investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Simplify Asset Management Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Simplify Asset Management Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission, nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy. This content is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice. This content is solely for informational purposes and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. These materials are made available on an “as is” basis, without representation or warranty. The information contained in these materials has been obtained from sources that Simplify Asset Management Inc. believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. This information is only current as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Neither the author nor Simplify Asset Management Inc. undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.
Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning
We ask all our guests on Excess Returns one closing question: If you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we compile and discuss the most impactful answers we have received to it. We break down valuable insights on investing and financial planning from experts like Michael Mauboussin, Rick Ferri, Bob Elliott, Andy Constan, Ben Inker, Meb Faber, and more. We cover a range of crucial topics, including: Michael Mauboussin: The importance of using base rates in decision making Rick Ferri: Why simpler investment strategies often work best Bob Elliott: How true diversification goes beyond just stocks and bonds Andy Constan: Why most investors don't actually have an edge Ben Inker: Understand who's on the other side of your trades and why they should give you a return Ehren Stanhope: The importance of position sizing and risk management Adam Butler: The future may be very different than the past Meb Faber: The benefits of being a long-term "Rip Van Winkle" investor Ben Carlson and Michael Batnick: Why there's no single perfect portfolio for everyone Chris Davis: Remembering that stocks represent ownership in real businesses Mike Green and Danial Crosby: Keeping investing in perspective with what truly matters in life Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this episode distills years of wisdom into actionable lessons to improve your financial decision making. We hope you enjoy this highlight reel of some of our favorite guest insights! We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring . We cover a wide range of topics, including recent market volatility, the broader economic outlook, and Andy's perspectives on inflation and monetary policy. Andy shares his framework for analyzing deleveraging events, emphasizes the importance of thinking in probabilities for market outcomes, and discusses potential long-term impacts of factors like AI and deglobalization on the economy. We explore his views on different economic scenarios and the Federal Reserve's actions. As always, Andy provides nuanced insights into market analysis and investment decisions, making for a thought-provoking conversation. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show for a discussion on the current state of the U.S economy & inflation continues to roll over & financial conditions remain loose. We deep dive into the outlook for stocks, bonds & markets into H2 2024. Enjoy! -- Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Why The Economy Has Remained Strong (04:39) Financial Conditions Are Still Loose (11:32) Mantra Ad (12:39) Relief In The Long End Has Been Fueling A Stock Market Rally (23:01) What To Expect From The QRA? (29:24) Permissionless Ad (30:02) Alpha vs Beta -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
Episode 131: Are You An Investor Who Wants To Increase Your Risk Adjusted Returns? Then this episode is for you! My special guest, Andy Constan, explores INVESTING with goal of achieving an EDGE - Excess Returns - in the Markets. That is the goal, right? How do you get that EDGE? Let's explore ALPHA. Is ALPHA Impossible? When You "Think" You Found ALPHA, Is It Really Just Beta In Disguise? What is ALPHA? What is BETA? Enter Andy Constan, over 35 years of investing and trading Global Markets, from Bioengineering at PENN to Head of Global Equity Derivatives at Salomon Brothers to Macro Investing at Bridgewater Associates to Founding 2 Relative Value Hedge Funds to now CEO/CIO at DAMPED SPRING (full service macro & commodity research firm) and is one of the 2 GRAY BEARDS Plus more in between! We discuss the WHY and WHEN in investing with focus on global macro and risk adjusted returns in the markets. It's time to learn more about Bonds, Yields, Inflation, Growth, Liquidity, Risk, and ALPHA and BETA Investing Strategies. How do you distinguish Alpha from Beta? Is Investing in Assets a "Free Lunch?" Know Your ALPHA & BETA Investing Strategies! An episode you cannot afford to miss! ➡️Follow Andy on X: https://x.com/dampedspring ➡️Visit Damped Spring: https://dampedspring.com/ ➡️Visit 2 Gray Beards: https://2graybeards.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For Investment Inquiries and/or to speak to an Investment Advisor at HYDRA WEALTH ADVISORS, please visit: https://www.hydrawealthadvisors.com ✨SUBSCRIBE to The RO Show YT Channel✨ https://youtube.com/@theroshowpodcast https://rumble.com/c/c-5300605 ➡️CONNECT with ROSANNA PRESTIA⬅️ ✨ONE SITE ♾️ https://sociatap.com/RosannaPrestia/ ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/RosannaInvests ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/TheROShowPod ✨WEBSITE ♾️ https://www.rosannaprestia.com/ THINK Different with Rosanna ©️ 2022-2024
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Two Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2Graybeards Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:16) The Script (02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes (04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession (07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market? (17:13) VaEck Ad (18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500) (22:35) Stock Bond Correlation (30:17) May Fed Meeting (31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts) (33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year (34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy (39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks? (41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise (44:53) The Japanese Yen (46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States (47:37) Chinese Equity Market (49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On April 30th, 2024, Excess Returns and SpotGamma brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all-day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. In this episode we are providing two of our favorite interviews of the day with Cem Karsan and Andy Constan. You can watch the full day of interviews or make a donation by heading over to the Excess Returns channel on YouTube and clicking the live link. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
In this episode, Andy Constan, a veteran Wall Street professional, joins the ReSolve team to discuss the intricacies of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, the impact of long-term borrowing rates on the economy, and the role of financial advisors in the investment industry. They delve into a wide array of topics, shedding light on the complexities of asset allocation, the influence of policy makers on market dynamics, and the future prospects of bonds and equities.Topics Discussed• Andy Constan's perspective on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and their impact on long-term borrowing rates• The role of financial advisors in the investment industry and the importance of informed conversations between advisors and clients• Insights into the complexities of asset allocation and the challenges of stock picking• The impact of long-term interest rates on the economy and the potential implications for inflation• The role of policy makers in changing market dynamics and the potential effects of their decisions• Predictions for the future performance of bonds and equities, and the factors that could influence these outcomes• The potential impact of government spending and fiscal policies on the expected trajectories of the marketThis episode is a deep dive into the complexities of financial markets, interest rates, and asset allocation. Andy Constan provides valuable insights from his extensive experience on Wall Street, making this a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the intricate dynamics of the investment industry and the potential future of bonds and equities.This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
In this episode, Nik joined once again by portfolio manager and fixed-income expert Andy Constan. Andy explains his bearish view on the stock market as a reaction to inflation refusing to come down and the Treasury department likely to keep coupon issuance high. He also breaks down why he does not view today's situation as fiscal dominance any longer and how restrictive monetary policy will ultimately impact the economy. Andy briefly discusses Michael Howell's liquidity framework and why gold's move tells us the Fed is losing on inflation. We also get a rare bitcoin mention from Andy! The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL's research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice. Block Height 839523 #TheBitcoinLayer Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Research Associate Joe Consorti's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #StockMarket #Inflation #TreasuryDepartment #CouponIssuance #FiscalDominance #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicImpact #LiquidityFramework #Gold #Bitcoin #Finance #Investing #PortfolioManagement #FixedIncome #ExpertInsights #MarketAnalysis #FinancialMarkets #MacroEconomics #FedPolicy #MarketTrends #AssetAllocation #FinancialStrategy #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #RiverBitcoin #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macroSubscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise
In this episode we are joined by Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. We discuss his outlook on the current economic landscape, why he left "higher for longer" island, inflation, the Fed's actions, the bond market, and the influence of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and a lot more. He also shares his views on defining alpha and beta in investing, and how he constructs portfolios to generate long-term returns. Finally, Andy expresses his biggest concerns and reasons for optimism looking out over the next 12-18 months. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
This week, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring joins the show for a discussion on what the Fed needs to do in their fight against inflation. As CPI prints continue to come in hot, financial conditions remain loose & markets melt-up, will the Fed be able to cut rates in 2024? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is brought to you by Aura, the AI-powered digital security protection app that keeps your personal information, passwords, online activity, and tech safe from digital threats. It's all-in-one protection from identity theft, financial fraud, malware, scams, and more. For a limited time, Aura is offering our listeners a 14-day FREE trial plus up to 55% off an Aura subscription. Visit https://aura.com/blockworks to sign up for your free trial. -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:49) Inflation (06:38) Why Are Financial Conditions Loose? (14:51) Aura Ad (16:09) Mantra Ad (17:15) The Script: The Only Way To Kill Inflation (20:48) Stock Market Melt-Up (30:10) Is The Banking System Healthy, Or Not? (36:32) Looking Ahead To FOMC -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
It's a tough time to be an investor. There are cross-currents galore in the macro data, the financial headlines, policy decision-making, and market technicals. After the easy decade that followed the Great Financial Crisis where markets dependably churned higher year after year and you could make money just going long pretty much any stock or ETF and "buying the dips" along the way -- suddenly it's taking a lot more hard work to earn a good return. What are the keys to investing success in today's more uncertain environment? For guidance, we're fortunate to talk with Andy Constan, founder of the macroeconomic research firm Damped Spring. His work there builds on his earlier tenure at elite firms like Solomon Brothers, Bridgewater and Brevan Howard. He sees the likelihood of a 'soft landing' as low given today's economic challenges. And in his explanation, he delivers a detailed summary of how the Reverse Repo Programm (RRP) and the Bank Funding Term Program (BFTP) work. Follow Andy at https://dampedspring.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @dampedspring SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Andy. #bftp #softlanding #reverserepo
We have now conducted over 100 interviews on Excess Returns. At the end of all of them, we have asked the same closing question: Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode, we bring all of their episodes together into one episode and share the answers from all our guests, including Guy Spier, Rob Arnott, Michael Mauboussin, Steve Romick, Joel Tillinghast, Cem Karsan, Bob Ellott, Jerry Parker, Andy Constan and many more. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, we are joined by portfolio manager Andy Constan. Andy delivers a masterful explainer on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, including a full breakdown of the Fed's bond portfolio, repo facilities, bailout facilities, and financial plumbing mechanics. Those that are interested in understanding how central banking works will find enormous value in this conversation. New YouTube videos M/W/F — New Substack posts T/R/S The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit https://river.com and start buying today, or visit https://river.com/TBL for $5 free when you sign up and buy $100 in Bitcoin. Subscribe to TBL on Substack: https://TheBitcoinLayer.substack.com Follow TBL on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/TheBitco... Follow TBL on Instagram: https://instagram.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebitcoinlayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Sign up for the free Monetary History course on @SaylorAcademy : http://sylr.org/MonetaryHistory Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Research Associate Joe Consorti's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball Block Height 822004 #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #AndyConstran #SOMA #Reserves #RRP #TGA #MBS #MonetaryPolicy #BitcoinThesis #FinancialInsights #FiscalDominance #EconomicDiscussion #GlobalMacro #LightningNetwork #LBTC #BitcoinTransaction #ETF #ETFs #BitcoinETF #GBTC #Binance #Coinbase #SEC #BlackRock #Fidelity #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #ETFPortfolio #ETFNews #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #Macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise
Andy Constan, founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Damped Spring, joins DoubleLine's Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau to discuss his approach to macroeconomics-driven investing. They also discuss, among other timely topics, Mr. Constan's outlook for persistent inflation above the ... Read More
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- On today's episode, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring & Co-Founder of 2 Gray Beards joins the show to disucss the recent QRA release from the U.S Treasury. As markets anticipated a higher amount of long end issuance, Andy turned bullish a few days ago when the numbers surprised to the downside & joins the show to explain exactly how he was able to catch this weeks risk on rally. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Why Andy Wen't Long Risk Asset's Post QRA Announcement (06:40) Bills vs Bonds Issuance (11:41) Should The U.S Have Termed Out Their Debt? (15:46) DAS London Promo (17:04) Financial Conditions Have Massively Eased (21:44) We're Back To Act I In The Inflation Cycle (24:25) Blockworks Research Ad (25:13) The Consequences Of This QRA Are Being Felt (32:50) The Path Towards Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- On today's episode, two hedge fund veterans Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic, Co-Founders of 2 Gray Beards join the show for a discussion on the recent bond market sell-off, the journey towards recession island in 2024 & the path ahead for equity weakness depending on the U.S Treasury's QRA at the end of October. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/nickgiva1 Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: Logan's speech is worth reading: the “why” of this recent bond selloff matters importantly for the Fed: https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1711371085889864063 The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Michael Howell & Andy Constan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZwrE_uNcg -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:28) How To End An Inflation Cycle (06:43) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is Coming To Market (17:12) The Fed Will Be Happy With The Bond Market Sell-Off (19:43) Blockworks Research Ad (20:30) The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening (27:48) Debt & Deficits (35:11) Reacting To Geopolitical Uncertainty In Markets (41:33) Preparing For Act 4 In A Move To Recession Island (47:41) Inflation -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In Episode 331 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan and Mike Green after a week of turmoil in the bond market that saw a dramatic repricing of long-term government debt, raising debt servicing costs for the US government and sending yields on 10-year Treasury bonds to nearly 5%. Demetri, Andy, and Mike spend the first hour of their conversation trying to make sense of the recent sell-off, as well as what the implications of these higher long-term interest rates will be for the economy and asset markets. The second hour is dedicated to discussing the risk-reward calculus for investors who are trying to decide whether or not they want to use this opportunity to add bonds to their portfolios, in what amount, over what duration, and what the risks and opportunities are of doing so given the continued uncertainty about the direction of interest rates and inflation. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone from our team will get back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 10/06/2023
This week Kev banters with Damped Spring parters, Andy Constan & Jimmy Jude. They discuss their thoughts on the market and reveal how they became a dynamic duo, with a few stories thrown in for good measures. Pat and Kev also announce the triumphant winner of Skin In The Game – it was a close call… Check out Damped Spring: dampedspring.com Follow Jimmy & Andy on X: @dampedspring @Jimmyjude13 *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Damped Spring Advisors founder Andy Constan. Andy has spent his career working at some of the most successful firms in the asset management industry, including Bridgewater and Brevan Howard and he explains how the lessons he has learned throughout his career led to how he constructs his portfolio today. We discuss how he combines a risk parity approach with alpha seeking strategies to maximize long-term returns and minimize risk. We also cover Andy's current view on stocks and bonds, factor investing, international diversification and a lot more. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- On todays episode, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring Macro Research & Bob Elliot CIO at Unlimited Funds join the show for a discussion on the emerging signs of a recessionary slowdown, the wave of U.S treasury issuance & it's impact on the long end of the bond market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:11) Fading A Recession In 2023, But Are The Tides Turning? (10:55) Central Banks Have Capitulated On Their Inflation Fight (19:04) Blockworks Research Ad (19:51) Understanding The Bond Market Repricing (27:24) U.S Treasury Issuance Will Cause A Further Decline In Markets (31:50) Inflation (36:36) A Credit Crisis Is Unlikely (51:03) How Have Hedge Funds Performed In 2023? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Interview Recorded - 29th of August, 2023On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Constan, CEO & CIO of Damped Spring Advisor.During our conversation we spoke about Andy's thoughts on Jackson Hole, while higher interest rates will drive down both stocks and bonds, what this means for unemployment, what would change Andy's opinion and whether this could lead to further issues with banks. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:43 - Overview of Andy's thoughts and Jackson Hole8:35 - How is there a shortage of government debt?11:03 - Duration moving during uncertainty12:42 - Treasury raising funds14:09 - Reverse Repo continue to pick up slack moving forward?18:50 - Will employment slowly change or require a catalyst?20:40 - Could student payment re-introduction impact inflation?21:30 - Do individuals have to lose their job?23:04 - What would have to change to change Andy's perspective?25:14 - Parallels to 2008?27:25 - What will happen internationally?28:49 - Dollar to continue to strengthen?30:06 - Further issues in banks ?32:28 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?Andy has spent the past 35 years investing and trading global markets. Over the last 12 years, he has developed strong expertise in Macro investing working at Bridgewater Associates as an Idea Generator and most recently at Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy spent the first part of his career at Salomon Brothers and its successor companies. After 17 years at Salomon and as the Head of Global Equity Derivatives, Andy left and started two relative value hedge funds specializing in Multi-Asset Volatility Arbitrage and Capital Structure Arbitrage. Throughout his career, Andy has developed a keen cutting edge understanding of systematic quantitative research and investment while also deeply appreciating the importance of the insights that arise from discretionary investing strategies.Andy Constan - Twitter - https://twitter.com/dampedspringLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyconstan/Website - https://dampedspring.com/WTFinance -Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity. Today's interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap ___ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/ More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Michael Howell's Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity (04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake (11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising? (18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity (31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"? (44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo (53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks (59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade (01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)? (01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell (01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In Episode 316 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan about this week's FOMC meeting and what the Federal Reserve rate decision could signal about the direction of interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. Will it be heralded as the long anticipate Fed pivot or seen as yet another head fake on our way toward “higher for longer,” serving as a drag on equity valuations and a headwind to economic growth? Because Andy's analysis is largely quantitative and flows based, he looks at not only what policymakers and investors are saying, but also what they're doing, what they're buying, and how they're buying it. This holds important information for the direction of bond prices, equities (and other risk asset), inflation, and economic growth, all of which Constan and Kofinas discuss in the second part of their conversation. The two also run through different scenarios surrounding the Federal Reserve rate decision, the significance of Janet Yellen's decision to refill the Treasury General Account (TGA) using largely T-Bill issuance as opposed to longer duration bonds, and why the long-anticipated recession has failed to materialize despite the most aggressive interest rate increases in 40 years. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 06/13/2023
Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Joe and Nik sit down with Andy Constan, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy discusses the behavior of UST rates as the debt ceiling deadline approaches, the Fed's ongoing QT campaign, and the state of his higherer for longerer thesis about the Fed's rate hiking. Follow Andy on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dampedspring Also, check out Andy's website: https://dampedspring.com/ New YouTube videos M/W/F — New Substack posts T/R/S Sponsored By Foundation Devices — see what best-in-class Bitcoin storage feels like at thebitcoinlayer.com/foundationGet $10 off with promo code BITCOINLAYER Subscribe to TBL on Substack: https://TheBitcoinLayer.substack.com Follow TBL on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/TheBitco... Follow TBL on Instagram: https://instagram.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebitcoinlayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Sign up for the free Monetary History course on @SaylorAcademy : http://sylr.org/MonetaryHistory Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearch Associate Joe Consorti's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoeConsortiCreative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball Block Height 789161 #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #JoeConsorti #AndyConstan #Bitcoin #Dollar #InterestRates #Debt #RRP #Recession #Banks #QT #Analysis #QE #Bankfailure #Assets #Blockchain #Bitcoinblockchain #Freedom #BTC #Market #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise
Volatility spiked and the market tumbled as earnings season continues, with First Republic Bank down more than 40%. Maggie Lake is joined by Andy Constan, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, to discuss his views on the global macro landscape, renewed fallout in the banking sector, and why it's time to get reacquainted with the debt ceiling. You can find more of Andy's work here: https://dampedspring.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In this episode we speak with Damped Spring Advisors founder Andy Constan. Andy has built a unique macro framework that incorporates growth, inflation, flows and risk premia. We discuss a wide variety of topics, including the interaction between Fed and Treasury policy, the biggest lessons he learned at Bridgewater, the future of inflation and what his framework says about the current market. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn't enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates. Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192 -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is The Soft Landing? (04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low” (12:45) January Inflation Data (19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates? (24:50) Outlook for Stocks (29:02) Permissionless Plug (30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound (36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade (41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening? (45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys (51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates (01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Interview recorded - 7th of February, 2023On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Constan, CEO & CIO of Damped Spring Advisor. During our conversation we spoke about Andy's thoughts on the markets, how he is short both stocks and bonds, the chance of having higher interest rates for longer and what would have to change Andy's mind. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Andy's thoughts on the markets?7:53 - High beta up, most other assets flat13:41 - Higher interest rates for longer is not priced into markets16:33 - Janet Yellen has control over QT20:03 - Spreads between government bonds and credit21:00 - Indicators to change perspective on market24:13 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?Andy has spent the past 35 years investing and trading global markets. Over the last 12 years, he has developed strong expertise in Macro investing working at Bridgewater Associates as an Idea Generator and most recently at Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy spent the first part of his career at Salomon Brothers and its successor companies. After 17 years at Salomon and as the Head of Global Equity Derivatives, Andy left and started two relative value hedge funds specializing in Multi-Asset Volatility Arbitrage and Capital Structure Arbitrage. Throughout his career, Andy has developed a keen cutting edge understanding of systematic quantitative research and investment while also deeply appreciating the importance of the insights that arise from discretionary investing strategies.Andy Constan - Twitter - https://twitter.com/dampedspringLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyconstan/Website - https://dampedspring.com/WTFinance -Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
This week we welcomed back Andy Constan (CEO / CIO of Damped Spring Advisors) and thought-provoking commentator on financial markets. His deep understanding of the global macro landscape and structure of markets, as always, made for a fascinating conversation that covered: A disciple of two completely different and complimentary schools of global macro excellence Navigating his portfolio in 2022 through the Twitter looking glass Listening between the lines and hearing the drumbeat of quantitative tightening (QT) early on In the old days, understanding inflation and growth was enough for capital allocation The game is now mostly about policymakers' toolkit, stimuli, and their impact on flows The driving force of equity derivatives and their huge impact in the second half of last year Under normal circumstances, commercial banks account for the lion's share of money creation and liquidity Issuance, roll-offs, and duration management – the mechanics behind the Fed's balance sheet Credit and leverage as a function of banks' ability and willingness to expand their own balance sheets The role of duration in the Fed's balance sheet activity Why Japan, the original QE trailblazer, was ineffective in its efforts to support asset prices for many years Compression of risk premia, asset inflation, and a weak transmission mechanism towards wealth effects and increased consumption Valuation multiples as the inverse of risk premia Multiples expansion as the primary mechanism for QE-driven asset bubbles Debt monetization as the medium-term bogey on the radar How the Fed relinquished control of QT duration to the Treasury And so much more This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two “blue pill” scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or “higher-er for longer-er” interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022. __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:47) "I'm Short Everything" (08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In (15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts (23:06) Curve ad (24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds? (30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP) (40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash (49:08) Views on Commodities (54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
What's the trajectory of inflation in 2023? How about the likelihood of a severe recession? There's no shortage of uncertainty as we look past the holidays, but Joseph Wang, Andy Constan, and James Helliwell have some thoughts on what's to come. Don't miss this discussion of how to navigate the markets in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
All three major U.S. equity indexes were up about 1% heading into Tuesday's close, rallying on light volume as investors look forward to a long holiday weekend with hope the Federal Reserve will soon ease off the monetary tightening. That's even with sentiment indicators like the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey showing a base-case expectation for “stagflation.” Maggie Lake welcomes Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian to the Daily Briefing to talk about what key markets are telling us heading into the end of the year and how the Fed is likely to handle recent softer inflation data. And Andy Constan, the CEO of Damped Spring, explains the two ways central bankers can really kill inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andy Constan and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3TXQsEA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We're back with Episode 7 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.Today, we have another fantastic guest for you-Andy Constan. Andy is the Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, a macroeconomic research firm specializing in Hedge Fund consulting. Andy brings a great deal of experience to the table, having worked at some of the biggest macroeconomic hedge funds- including Bridgewater & Brevan Howard. Andy has also generated some serious alpha this year, using his flow-based approach to time key inflections in asset markets— so this episode is must-listen if you're trying to navigate today's volatile markets. Find the show notes below: * Mechanics (00:00-59:00): Alpha, Discretionary vs. Systematic, Risk Premiums, Idiosyncratic Volatility, Risk vs. Volatility, Flows (Gamma, Leverage, QT), QT Mechanics, Portfolio Rebalance Channel. * Macro (59:00-1:18:00): High Nominal Growth, Higher Than Expected Inflation, Higher Than Expected Terminal Rates For Longer, What Could “Break” In Markets. * Markets (1:18:00- 1:22:00): Hedging Into FOMC & Quarterly Refunding. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @dampedspring on Twitter.If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com
Starring Chris Irons, Doomberg, Alex Epstein, Deer Point Macro, Alfonso Peccatiello, Chris Martenson, Le Shrub, Andy Constan, Tracy Shuchart, Daniel Lacalle, Jim Bianco, Wall Street Silver, Josh Young, and George Noble.Produced and directed by Michael A. Gayed, CFACheck The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreportFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreportInstagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreport Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off. Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com)
What is the Fed doing?Check The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreportFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreportInstagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreport Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off. Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com)The Future Is FreelanceThis show is for freelancers, sole traders, solopreneurs, digital nomads, consultants,...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify Master Your Mindset With Coach MarcDevelop the leadership mindset, skills + confidence to make a bigger impact in less time!Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks' London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Today Jack welcomes Andy Constan, macro investor and publisher of The Damped Spring Report, and Joseph Wang, former senior Fed trader and author of Fedguy.com, to discuss how the Fed's reduction of its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting market liquidity and future returns. Constan argues that favorable market conditions that allowed risk assets to rise during the summer are no longer present, and that this “false dawn” is over. Wang argues that QT will drain the banking system of reserves and the Fed may have to plug “leaks” in the financial plumbing. Filmed on September 7, 2022. -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Markets (10:38) Equity & Bond Market Flows Over The Past Few Months (15:46) Volatility (Vol) Targeting (24:18) Equity Risk Premium Model (32:13) The "False Dawn" In Asset Prices (38:28) Joseph Wang on Treasury Issuance (43:58) Joseph on "The Reserve Gap" (53:50) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:11) Andy Constan's Outlook on Bonds (1:02:02) How Far Can The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz. -- Use code MACRO200 to get discounted tickets to the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/?gclid=CjwKCAjwo_KXBhAaEiwA2RZ8hIgyUQTvJmP-g0qAclP5WXFdpLdZSLkarlMTWE9_Po341_j_x5FBBBoCojkQAvD_BwE -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Market prices are impacted by a host of forces including changes in the economy, in earnings and in the stance of monetary policy. For Andy Constan, flows carry great import as well. Hitching a ride to Wall Street in 1986 at Salomon Brothers, Andy was part of a group that contributed to the Brady Commission Report, the post-mortem on the calamity that was the '87 stock market crash. In this context, he shares his views on episodes in which flows into or out of an asset disrupted the equilibrium of supply and demand, leading to shocking movements in price. Among them, Andy describes the April 2020 negative price in front month crude, a short-lived but intense dislocation resulting from mechanical ETF flows. In furthering the discussion on liquidity, we explore the 2010 blow-up in the long dated SPX variance swap market, a trade that Andy ranks among the most attractive he has seen in his career, a result of an extreme imbalance in supply and demand. Our conversation then shifts to the present day of risk and the work that Andy is doing at Damped Spring Advisors, a research firm he founded in 2019. On his mind is the market's capacity to adjust to a regime of higher rates, the factors that may leave QT more or less impactful and whether Fed policy ultimately leaves money tight or not. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Andy Constan.
This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Constan (CEO / CIO at Damped Spring Advisors) and prolific member of the FinTwit community under the @dampedspring penname. Our conversation spanned topics including: His long and interesting career in the investment world Starting with equity derivatives and eventually earning his ‘global macro education' at Bridgewater Associates The constantly evolving challenge of generating alpha Trading and managing portfolios at scale and the importance of liquidity Separating alpha from beta Basis risk vs liquidity risk The broad macro picture vs what is priced in The unique challenges posed by the current environment The front-running of quantitative tightening The daily marking to market of risk premia The weak link between consumer inflation and the Fed's balance sheet The interplay between the Fed, the Treasury and the bond market Interpreting the messages coming from policymakers The importance of positioning data and rebalancing flows And much more This is “ReSolve's Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Know Your Risk Radio with Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer, Bulwark Capital Management
Andy Constan with Damped Spring Advisors joins for a discussion on the rise in interest rates, and the potential for a recession. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On this Friday's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Andy Constan CEO/CIO at Damped Spring Advisors. With over 30+ years of experience working at some of the largest funds in the world such as Bridgewater, Brevan Howard & Salomon Brothers; Andy provides a deep dive into the often misunderstood financial plumbing to help investors navigate the Fed's quantitative tightening program. -- Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Damped Spring: https://dampedspring.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:32 Quantitative Tightening 04:32 What Happens When The Fed Stops Buying Bonds? 08:30 Risks vs Rewards Between Bills & Bonds 14:06 The Reverse Repo Facility 21:22 Quantitative Tightening Could Spell Danger For Markets 24:33 Is Quantitative Tightening Priced In? 27:44 Fiscal Handout's Throughout 2022 30:19 Risk Management
Andy is the former CIO of a hedge fund, and has a pedigree with some of the biggest hedge funds on Wall Street. Here he discusses the Fed and how they affect asset markets from a risk premium standpoint, what he continues to watch for, and more!
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Andy Constan joins Jack to discuss the latest in financial news, reflecting on the Fed while discussing topics like market plumbing, roll-downs, and more. Andy Constan injects his absolute expertise of the subject matter into this interview-- you won't want to miss it. Follow Andy Constan @dampedspring Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Andy Constan has spent the past 33 years investing and trading global markets. He's worked at leading hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy started his career at Salomon Brothers. He is the founder of Damped Spring Advisors. In this podcast we discuss: What Andy learned from Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, setting up all-weather portfolios, the problem with bonds, and how to outperform the market. Andy further talked about using flow and position data and macro news, the impact of mortgage convexity hedging on bonds, what is next for the Fed, and whether equities are overvalued. Finally, he discussed his views on inflation, his favourite trades, and the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities (Fabozzi), Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (Hull), Principles: Life and Work (Dalio) and Liar's Poker (Lewis). For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com.
This week we are joined by Andy Constan, Founder of Damped Springs Advisors, and Nicholas Colas, Co-Founder of DataTrek to discuss the hot CPI numbers, The Federal Reserve, rate hikes, supply chains, year-end price targets, and so much more! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Wall Street veteran Andy Constan. From his early days at Salomon … Continue ReadingForced Patience (guests: Andy Constan, Paul Schulte)
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