Podcasts about ltcm

Michael Burry, de belegger die naam heeft gemaakt met het voorspellen van de huizencrisis in 2008, stopt ermee. Tenminste hij blijft zelf wel beleggen, maar zijn hedgefonds Scion gaat dicht. En dan zijn zijn beleggingstransacties niet meer te zien. Dat is jammer. Michael Burry kan erg onafhankelijk en tegendraads denken. Daarmee was het een bron van bijzondere beleggingsideeën. Het sluiten van zijn fonds doet me een beetje denken aan het Tiger fonds. Dat ging dicht in maart 2000 op het hoogtepunt van de internetbubbel. De fondsmanager, Julian Robertson, gokte flink op dalende koersen van internet aandelen. En op het aller-aller-slechtste moment gooide hij de handdoek in de ring. Daarna gingen de koersen alleen maar omlaag, drie jaar lang. Tja, “markets can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent”, zei Keynes al. Eerlijkheidshalve moet ik er ook bij vermelden dat hij een flink koersverlies had opgelopen tijdens de Russische crisis en de LTCM crisis. Bovendien zat hij vol met aandelen US Airways. Die vliegtuigmaatschappij ging een paar jaar later failliet. Maar dat hoor je nooit over het Tiger fonds, want dat maakt het verhaal heel wat minder spectaculair. Tot op heden is Robertson nog steeds de posterchild, van iemand die de bubbel voorzag, maar er toch flink geld mee verloor. Michael Burry is bekend geworden omdat hij tegen de huizenmarkt in speculeerde. Hij voorzag de huizen bubbel en kocht een verzekering tegen het non betaling van de opgeblazen Amerikaanse hypotheek portefeuilles. Zolang de markt niet crashte moest hij enorme premies betalen en maakte zijn fonds verlies. Veel beleggers in zijn fonds konden de verliezen emotioneel niet meer verdragen en stapten uit. Maar degene die bleven verdienden ruim U$ 700 miljoen. En dat in een tijd dat heel veel beleggers juist flink geld verloren. Hijzelf hield er ongeveer U$ 100 miljoen aan over. In de afgelopen jaren zette Burry in op een koersherstel van Chinese internet aandelen. Deze aandelen zijn grofweg verdubbeld sinds hij zijn belang meldde, al stapte hij wel te vroeg uit. Voordat het fonds definitief sluit krijgen we nog een laatste beleggingstip mee. Burry heeft onder andere voor 9 miljoen dollar aan putopties op het AI- en defensie aandeel Palantir gekocht. Tot en met 2027 mag hij de aandelen verkopen op U$ 50. De huidige koers schommelt rond de U$ 200. Het zegt twee dingen. Hij verwacht dat de bubbel knapt. En dat dan de klap groot kan zijn. Dat hij van die hele lange opties heeft gekocht geeft ook aan dat hij geen idee heeft wanneer dat gaat gebeuren. Net als met de huizenbubbel. Tot die tijd is het pijn lijden. En daar kunnen veel beleggers blijkbaar niet zo goed tegen. Maar ja, Michael Burry, hoeft zich straks alleen maar aan de man in de spiegel te verantwoorden. Corné van Zeijl is analist en strateeg bij Cardano en belegt ook privé. Reageer via c.zeijl@cardano.com. Deze column kun je ook iedere donderdag lezen in het FD. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today's highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM's era. He also explains Elm's Dynamic Index Investing framework and why simplicity and discipline outperform complexity and return-chasing over time. Enjoy! __ Follow Victor: https://x.com/ElmWealth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:04) Insights from Victor's Storied Career (09:22) Today's Market vs the 90s (16:32) Grayscale Ad (17:11) Fat Tails & Return Chasing (28:41) Grayscale Ad (29:29) Is Discretionary Macro a Fool's Game? (37:42) Portfolio Construction & Managing Risk (44:33) Balancing Risk, Sizing, & Expected Returns (50:15) What is Good Diversification? (55:55) Exotic Forms of Diversification (59:52) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode of PropertyShe, Susan Freeman speaks with Mark Shipman, founding partner of Michael Elliott, to mark his 40th year in real estate. Widely recognised as one of London's leading investment advisers, Mark reflects on his early career, landmark deals, and the evolution of the London property market. He also shares his perspective on current market conditions, international investment trends, and how technology and regulation are reshaping the industry. In this episode, Mark Shipman speaks about: Career beginnings & early influences – upbringing, first roles, mentors, and founding Michael Elliott at 24. Formative deals & Chelsfield – early trades (e.g., Great Newport Street), portfolio transactions, and scaling through the 1990s–2000s. How London's market has evolved – rise of global capital, why international investors choose London (law, stability, culture), and today's buyer mix. Market cycles & shocks – lessons from the early-90s downturn, LTCM (1998), the 2008 crisis, and COVID's long-term impact on confidence and debt. Current investment sentiment – ebb and flow of overseas capital, growth of owner-occupier HQ purchases in prime Mayfair and St James's. Policy and tax headwinds – potential effects of a mansion tax, the end of tax-free shopping, and wider fiscal uncertainty. Public markets & capital structure – REIT discounts, possible sector consolidation, and investor shifts towards lending and AI-linked opportunities. Development and placemaking – examples including Sterling Square and the Fenwick/Bond Street redevelopment; importance of architecture, design, and tenant mix. Hospitality snapshot – strong mid-market hotel performance contrasted with softer ultra-luxury demand. Operator-led transactions – OpCo/PropCo structures and the BBC Maida Vale acquisition involving Hans Zimmer's team. Law and regulation – how the Building Safety Act 2022 is reshaping development risk and timelines. AI in real estate – valuable analytical tool but still dependent on human judgment and negotiation. Advisory approach & lessons – the importance of adaptability, financial understanding, and trusted professional relationships. 

In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocation, valuation signals, buybacks, managed futures, and the dangers of extrapolating past returns into the future.Topics covered:• Victor's journey from LTCM to simple, systematic investing• Why position sizing is as important as what you own• How to think about expected returns and valuation frameworks like CAPE and P-CAPE• The role of risk, risk premia, and personal utility in portfolio decisions• Why 60/40 and the permanent portfolio ignore expected returns• Buybacks, market elasticity, and capital flows• Indexing misconceptions and asset allocation discipline• The ETF structure and tax efficiency in asset allocation strategies• Concentration in large tech stocks and long-term equity returns• The importance of dynamic asset allocation vs static allocation• Key lessons for individual investors and avoiding “too good to be true” opportunities Timestamps:00:00 Intro and Victor's investing journey03:00 Lessons from LTCM and shift to simplicity09:00 Position sizing vs asset selection13:00 Risk as a cost and thinking in expected returns18:00 CAPE and the P-CAPE framework26:00 How to use expected return estimates34:00 The impact of buybacks on equity markets39:00 Indexing vs poor asset allocation habits43:00 Portfolio construction and global diversification46:00 Why the permanent portfolio falls short47:00 Managed futures and factors beyond stocks and bonds50:00 Inside Elm's dynamic allocation ETF55:00 Market concentration and equity issuance risks01:01:00 The case for dynamic allocation01:02:50 Victor's one investing lesson

In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, Ben Felix and Dan Bortolotti celebrate the show's 7th anniversary with a conversation centered around timeless investing wisdom. Drawing from a vibrant thread in the Rational Reminder community, they unpack dozens of quotes that distill decades of financial insight into actionable mantras. What begins as a curated list of one-liners quickly evolves into a masterclass on the behavioral and practical realities of long-term investing. From “pay yourself first” to “diversification is the only free lunch,” Ben and Dan explore how psychological resilience, humility, and clear planning matter more than predictive genius. The quotes spark deep discussions on topics ranging from portfolio construction and risk perception to fees, fear, and investor behavior—each one contextualized with real-world examples.   Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Celebrating 7 years of the podcast and its growing impact across video and audio platforms. (1:33) Reflecting on PWL's evolution and the value-aligned advisors looking to join. (8:00) Introducing the main topic: timeless investing quotes from the Rational Reminder community. (10:24) “Pay yourself first”: Why savings matter more than returns early on. (14:06) The flaws in one-size-fits-all savings rules like “save 10% of your income.” (15:07) “The investor's worst enemy is himself”: Behavioral finance and investor psychology. (17:17) “This time is different”: Templeton's warning against market narratives and FOMO. (20:31) “Have a philosophy you can stick with”: Why strategy persistence matters more than perfection. (23:59) ARK as a case study: Conviction versus performance-chasing. (26:38) Buffett on risk: Be ready for 50% drawdowns—even in diversified portfolios. (28:58) The global market portfolio: Sharpe and Fama's starting point for asset allocation. (31:50) “Far more money is lost preparing for corrections”: Lynch on market timing mistakes. (35:18) Volatility is emotional, not just mathematical—especially in crises like COVID or 2008. (40:29) Charles Ellis: “Risk is not having the money when you need it.” (42:08) “Volatility is the price of admission”: Embracing risk to pursue long-term returns. (44:30) Ken Fisher: “Normal returns are extreme.” Why market behavior is rarely average. (47:16) “Risk is what's left when you think you've thought of everything.” Planning for the unknown. (49:07) Life has a fat tail: LTCM and the perils of underestimating extreme events. (50:25) “Make sure you're at the table, not on the menu”: Cochrane on avoiding bad financial products. (52:31) Bogle: “We get precisely what we don't pay for.” Why low-cost beats high-fee. (55:13) Trading and over-monitoring: Why “doing less” often means better returns. (57:02) “It ain't what you don't know…”: Humility in the face of market uncertainty. (59:26) “Diversification is the only free lunch”: Reducing risk without reducing expected return. (1:00:35) Bogle: “Don't look for the needle. Just buy the haystack.” (1:02:38) Focus on what you can control: Savings, costs, asset allocation—not market returns. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://ca.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310 Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)  

Nel 1994 nasce LTCM, un hedge fund guidato da una leggenda di Wall Street e due premi Nobel. L'idea è semplice: usare formule matematiche per dominare i mercati. Ma c'è un errore di fondo: pensare che la finanza sia sempre prevedibile. All'inizio funziona e per tre anni macinano profitti, finché nel 1998 accade qualcosa di improbabile: il cigno nero. La Russia va in default e LTCM perde miliardi in venti giorni. Rischiando di trascinare giù l'economia globale, LTCM dimostrò che l'economia moderna non è solo numeri, ma anche psicologia. E che per sopravvivere davvero, i sistemi non devono essere perfetti. Devono essere antifragili. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I'm joined by Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, for a conversation that spans revolution, crisis, and hard-earned wisdom. From seeing his family lose nearly everything during the Iranian revolution, to his high-stakes years at Salomon Brothers and as a founding partner of the infamous Long-Term Capital Management, Victor's journey is nothing short of extraordinary. After stepping back from markets for over a decade following LTCM's collapse, he returned with a mission: to help investors avoid the pitfalls he'd seen firsthand. We discuss the crucial—and often overlooked—importance of position sizing, the seductive danger of private equity pitches, and why too many wealthy investors are flying blind. Victor shares the principles behind his “eyes open” investing philosophy and explains why sticking to low-cost, diversified, logic-based strategies may be the most underrated path to long-term success. This is a conversation packed with insight, humility, and lessons that only experience can teach. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In this episode, Clay explores When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein, the gripping story of the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).  Founded by Wall Street's brightest minds, including Nobel Prize-winning economists, LTCM generated astronomical returns using complex mathematical models and extreme leverage—until a financial crisis in 1998 exposed its fatal flaws. Clay also discusses the dangers of overconfidence, the illusion of diversification, and why excessive leverage can be a ticking time bomb.  Additionally, he shares details on an exclusive value investing event hosted by TIP in Big Sky, Montana, in September 2025. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:34 - How John Meriwether and a team of Wall Street's brightest minds, including Nobel laureates, built a hedge fund that seemed invincible, using sophisticated financial models and extreme leverage. 25:55 - LTCM's reliance on mathematical models that assumed markets behaved rationally, leading them to underestimate the possibility of extreme events. 48:30 - How the Russian debt default triggered widening credit spreads, exposing LTCM's overleveraged positions and leading to catastrophic losses. 54:49 - Why LTCM's failure posed systemic risks to the global financial system, forcing the Fed to coordinate a rescue with major Wall Street banks. 01:08:17 - The dangers of excessive leverage, overconfidence in financial models, and the mistaken belief that markets always revert to historical norms. 01:15:09 - How to attend our new value investing event in Big Sky, Montana, bringing together passionate investors for deep discussions and meaningful connections. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Lowenstein's book: When Genius Failed. Mentioned book: Big Mistakes. Related Episode: Listen to TIP514: Permanent Supply Chain Disruptions that Will Destroy the Economy w/ Jim Rickards. Email Shawn at shawn@theinvestorspodcast.com to attend our free events in Omaha or visit this page. Follow Clay on X. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock Found SimpleMining CFI Education The Bitcoin Way Unchained Netsuite Fintool Shopify Onramp Vanta TurboTax Fundrise HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

From LTCM Collapse to $2B Success: Victor Haghani's Path with Elm Wealth and Dynamic Index Investing® Website: www.ElmWealth.comTicker: $ELMBioBio Victor Haghani graduated from the London School of Economics in 1984. He worked for Salomon Brothers in New York in research and on the bond arbitrage desk from 1984-1993. In 1993, Victor was a co-founding partner and co-headed the London office of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. He founded Elm Wealth in 2011 to help clients, including his own family, manage and preserve their wealth through Dynamic Index Investing®, an investment approach pioneered at Elm. Victor discussed the potential benefits of combining the best features of passive and active investing in a TEDx talk he gave on investing, Where Are All the Billionaires and Why Should We Care?. Victor has been a prolific contributor to the academic and practitioner finance literature, writing many articles published in peer-reviewed academic journals, anthologies, and mainstream news media. Victor has helped run several widely referenced investor psychology experiments, often based on subjects betting real money on uncertain, positive edge opportunities (Coin Flip game and Crystal Ball challenge). He is a co-author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions (Wiley, 2023), which was named to The Economist's Best Books of 2023 list.

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 05:00:00 +0000 https://morningbull.podigee.io/1212-new-episode a81ce6ee30694824f425596b8af886e5 full "Imaginez une bande de prix Nobel de finance, des mecs sûrs d'eux, qui pensent avoir trouvé une formule magique pour battre les marchés… Et qui finissent par déclencher une crise MONDIALE. no Morningbull,Swissquote,Bourse,Finance,LTCM,Alan Greenspan Thomas Veillet et Vincent Ganne vous proposent un tour d'horizon de to

Victor Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers and shortly after became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. He was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management and established its London office. The failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing. His new book - The Missing Billionaires is a personal finance book that examines why there are so few "old money" billionaires on the current rich lists. The book focuses on poor risk decisions, both in investing and spending. Many of the millionaires from 125 years ago didn't choose bad investments– they simply sized them incorrectly– and allowed their spending decisions to amplify this mistake. The Missing Billionaires book offers a framework for making important lifetime financial decisions in a systematic and rational way. In today's interview Victor discusses how much risk an investor should take to safely grow their wealth or how much of a good thing is too much? The Missing Billionaires on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3OIr6u8 Subscribe to Victor's Mailing List: https://elmwealth.com/elm-in-the-press/ Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Business Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org

✍︎: The Curious Worldview Newsletter - the ultimate compliment to the podcast...Bill BrowderNassim TalebFollow me on Instagram - @ryanfhoggThis is an interview with Victor Haghani who is among many other things… the Co-Founder of LTCM (long term capital management), the Founder of Elm Wealth and the author of Missing Billionaires.In this interview we focused on Victor himself... his experiences at Solomon in the 80s and a brush with Bill Browder (who by the way was recently knighted), comments on Jim Simons and Nassim Taleb, an incredible moment of serendipity that would have changed his life forever and ultimately an exploration of Victor's worldview...00:00 – Who Is Victor Haghani01:40 - 1997 Nobel Prize & Stockholm07:47 - Solomon Brothers & Bill Browder Anecdote16:15 - 10 Year Sabbatical24:42 - Jim Simons30:49 - Missing Billionaires & Ergodicity52:40 - Baggage We Are Carrying Around From Our Evolutionary Past1:00:40 - Nassim Taleb1:04:40 - Potentially A Confrontational Question1:11:40 - Michael Burry Index Bubble Theory1:18:26 - An Incredible Moment Of Serendipity & Why Victor's Bullish On UK

Nel 1994 John Meriwether fonda Long Term Capital Management, l'hedge fund dei geni che annoverava premi Nobel e superstar del mondo della finanza e dell'accademia, e per 4 anni realizza risultati incredibili. Finché nel 1998, un evento del tutto inaspettato porta al più spettacolare fallimento a Wall Street fino a Lehman Brothers. Con Nicola Protasoni ripercorriamo questa storia, cerchiamo di trarne insegnamenti per la nostra vita da investitori e parliamo di facciamo qualche ragionamento pratico per i nostri portafogli. The Italian Leather Sofa R. Lowenstein, When Genius Failed Seguiteci anche su Instagram! =============================================== Investi con Scalable in ETF e Azioni a costi imbattibili. L'Assicurazione sulla Vita semplice e conveniente: Turtleneck Migliaia di audiolibri riassunti in 15 minuti con 4Books. Ottieni le migliori tariffe per Luce, Gas, Internet e Cellulare con Switcho. I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: nessun contenuto di questo podcast deve essere inteso come una raccomandazione di investimento. La citazione di determinati ETF è a mero scopo esemplificativo e non deve essere intesa in alcun modo come una sollecitazione all'acquisto di specifici prodotti finanziari. L'autore non è un consulente finanziario e non intende presentarsi come tale. Investire comporta dei rischi. Affidatevi sempre a dei professionisti e/o assicuratevi sempre di aver compreso pienamente il funzionamento, le implicazioni e i rischi di ciascun prodotto finanziario prima di investirvi del denaro. L'autore non è inoltre collegato ad alcuna società emittente di prodotti di investimento. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Upcoming Event!How Can Mindfulness Help You Reach Financial Independence?Do you want to reduce money anxiety, but don't know who to trust?Would you like to learn how to set up and manage your own retirement plan?Do you want to know how we create a passive income stream you can't outlive?If yes, join us and learn how to answer the 4 critical financial independence questions:Am I on track for financial independence?What do I need to do to get on track?How do I design a mindful investing portfolio?How do I manage that portfolio and my income over time through changing markets?Learn more: https://courses.mindful.money/financial-independence-bootcampIn this episode, I speak with Victor Haghani, a Seasoned Financial Expert whose journey through the realms of high finance is nothing short of enlightening. Victor shares his rich history of Long-Term Capital Management. From his early days in New York and Iran to his pivotal roles at Salomon Brothers and finally to founding Elm Wealth. His insights into the evolution of his investment strategies, particularly his shift from high-stakes trading to a more sustainable, mindful approach to personal wealth management, are not just educational but deeply relatable. Victor's recent work, including his book "The Missing Billionaires," offers a fresh perspective on making sound financial decisions, which he discusses with a clarity that resonates well beyond the finance-savvy audience.The conversation dives into the practicalities of investing, the common pitfalls of financial decision-making, and the psychological aspects that often trip up even the most astute investors. Victor's approach to simplifying complex financial concepts and his emphasis on learning from past investment outcomes make this discussion a must-listen for anyone looking to navigate the often turbulent waters of personal finance. His personal anecdotes, combined with a straightforward breakdown of investment principles, provide a roadmap that encourages a more thoughtful, disciplined approach to managing money. Join us as we discuss actionable advice that promises to empower you to take control of your financial future with confidence and a newfound understanding.

Les 3 piliers de l'investissement sont relativement connus. Mais que se passe-t-il lorsque vous n'en avez que 2 ? Petit désagrément ou faillite potentielle ? Lien vers la vidéo sur LTCM : ici

Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro discusses his background and experience in finance and macroeconomics in this week's long-form on MSD. He shares the challenges of standing out in the macro research industry and the importance of making calls and learning from mistakes. The conversation then delves into the lessons learned from 2023 and the expectations for 2024. The similarities to the late 1990s cycle and the potential impact of rate cuts on asset prices are explored. Finally, the conversation concludes with a discussion on long-term demographic changes and their inflationary effects. In this conversation, Chase Taylor and Trevor discuss various topics including the impact of immigration and population decline, the rise in commodity prices, the demand for raw materials in digital infrastructure, and the role of gold as a safe haven. Chase Taylor shares his insights and observations on these subjects, providing valuable analysis and predictions. Overall, the conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global trends and the importance of understanding their implications.

To watch the full interview you can access it with our deep dive or membership site https://www.eurodollar.universityThis conversation wasn't just an inside account of LTCM and a recall of history at of those famous crossroads, Jim Rickards and Jeff ruminate over the implications from the affair which are still reverberating through time right up to this day. The struggles to contain the fallout from the debacle are every bit as relevant now as it was shocking way back then. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Highlights from this week's conversation include:The Ten Year Treasury and its Role in Booms (1:51)The End of an Era and the Impact of COVID-19 (5:09)Shocking Revelation of the Ten-Year Yield (9:31)Reset and Retooling (11:05)LP Perspective on Venture (13:11)Investing in Legacy Assets (15:21)Insider Segment: New and Emerging Trends for LPA (16:37)Raising capital in the current market (19:25)Limited partner agreement terms (20:38)Necessary skills for managers in the next decade (22:05)The time of opportunity (29:50)Safety is danger (30:52)Roxane Googin is a world renowned authority on macroeconomic technology trends and the Chief Futurist of the fintech venture firm Group 11. Previously, Roxane was the editor of High Tech Observer, a long running invite-only publication read by institutional portfolio managers focusing on disruption in the technology sector. Her bold predictions included an inflation-free stock market boom in the 1990s, culminating in the Internet boom from the depths of the LTCM credit crisis in 1998, the internet bubble demise in September 2000, and the introduction of smartphones and cloud computing in May 2002 through her much acclaimed article “Six Simultaneous Equations”, to name a few. In addition to engineering experience in development and manufacturing, Roxane has experienced finance from the cradle to the grave: from venture capital, through equity analysis, to term and finally to asset-based lending. She uses her broad experience to envision the disruptions that are bound to come our way. Roxane Googin has a BS-EE from the University of Tennessee and an MBA from the University of Virginia.Gunderson Dettmer is a law firm specializing in providing legal services to the startup and venture capital communities. With a primary focus on technology and life sciences sectors, the firm is known for its expertise in guiding emerging companies through various stages of growth, from formation to financing and beyond. Gunderson Dettmer's comprehensive legal support includes advice on corporate governance, intellectual property, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital transactions, making it a trusted partner for innovative enterprises navigating the complex legal landscape. Swimming with Allocators is a podcast that dives into the intriguing world of Venture Capital from an LP (Limited Partner) perspective. Hosts Alexa Binns and Earnest Sweat are seasoned professionals who have donned various hats in the VC ecosystem. Each episode, we explore where the future opportunities lie in the VC landscape with insights from top LPs on their investment strategies and industry experts shedding light on emerging trends and technologies. Follow along and subscribe at swimmingwithallocators.com.The information provided on this podcast does not, and is not intended to, constitute legal advice; instead, all information, content, and materials available on this podcast are for general informational purposes only.

The barrier to entry for online "fin-Influencers" is incredibly low, but responsible professional technical analysis covers an immense body of knowledge. In this episode, we dig into the complexity behind John's technical mosaic and the multi-factor models he uses. Yet, the simplicity with which he communicates market conditions and portfolio construction to his institutional clients cannot be overstated. While understanding "the health of the market" allows portfolio managers to responsibly take on risk for clients while maintaining situational awareness of market fragility, ignoring intermarket relationships and bottom-up trends leaves precious alpha off the table and presents career risk. Considering the ~60% rally of US equities off the LTCM low in 1998 to the peak in March of 2000, a lack of breadth is not reason enough to avoid market risk.The long and winding road of John's career on Wall St. allowed him to learn from many notable practitioners from his early days at Lehman Brothers to more recently as a buy-side technical strategist at Fidelity (FMR). He outlines a fascinating genealogy of technical analysts in his "family tree," which he takes great inspiration from and aspires to pay forward that is rooted in Robert J. Farell's Merrill Lynch technical research group. John is a huge advocate for technical analysis, where he is an adjunct university professor and an executive board member of the CMT Association.  Enjoy this insightful, informative, and hilarious episode of Fill the Gap with John Kolovos, CMT, CFA!Fill the Gap, hosted by David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Tyler Wood, CMT brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast. For complete show notes of every episode, visit: https://cmtassociation.org/development/podcasts/ Give us a shout:@dlundgren3333 or https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-lundgren-cmt-cfa-63b73b/@_TBone_Pickens or https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-wood-cmt-b8b0902/@CMTAssociation orhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/cmtassociationCMT Association is the global credentialing authority committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis in the financial services industry. We serve members in over 137 countries. Our mission is to elevate investors mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. CMT Association formed in the late 1960s with headquarters in lower Manhattan, NY and Mumbai, India.Learn more at: www.cmtassociation.org

Victor Haghani – Missing Billionaires w/ ex-LTCM partner & Elm Wealth Founder Victor Haghani started his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers, where he became an MD in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. Victor was a co-founding partner of LTCM. In 2011, Victor founded Elm Wealth to help clients, including his own family, manage and preserve their wealth with a thoughtful, research-based, and cost-effective approach that covers not just investment management but also broader decisions about wealth and finances.   In his TEDx talk, Where Are All the Billionaires and Why Should We Care? Victor shares his unique perspective on active versus passive investing. Victor has been a prolific contributor to the academic and practitioner finance literature. He is a co-author of the book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, which has just been released and is available on amazon and most other book sellers.   We talk about Victor's childhood, upbringing, and fascinating career. He shares his thoughts about managing his own wealth, and what he learned in the process. We focus on the missing billionaires as he calls them in his Ted talk and his book – given the fortunes that existed a hundred years ago, we should have many more billionaire inheritors and we don't – it's the ages old challenges of staying rich, and keeping a multi-generational fortune. We discuss position sizing, and asset allocation, how much should be invested in stocks. Victor shares some surprising learnings from a coin flipping competition study.   Stay tuned until the end if your are curious to hear Victor share a story of his very last Liar's Poker hand at Salomon Brothers…   https://www.amazon.com/Missing-Billionaires-Better-Financial-Decisions/dp/1119747910/ www.elmwealth.com --- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Crisis Investing: 100 Essays⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - My new book. To get regular updates and bonus content, please sign-up for my substack: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bogumilbaranowski.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow me on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/bogumil_nyc⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bogumil Baranowski⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sicart Associates, LLC⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE. IMPORTANT: As a reminder, the remarks in this interview represent the views, opinions, and experiences of the participants and are based upon information they believe to be reliable; however, Sicart Associates nor I have independently verified all such remarks. The content of this podcast is for general, informational purposes, and so are the opinions of members of Sicart Associates, a registered investment adviser, and guests of the show. This podcast does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security or financial instruments or provide investment advice or service. Past performance is not indicative of future results. More information on Sicart Associates is available via its Form ADV disclosure documents available ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠adviserinfo.sec.gov⁠⁠⁠ --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/talking-billions/message

Geldgeschichte(n): Das Bell-System & Die LTCM-Krise Im Rahmen unseres deutsch-österreichischen Verständigungsprojekts vereinen mein Bloggerkollege Clemens Faustenhammer und ich die zwei schönsten Nebensachen der Welt, nämlich Geld und Geschichte, miteinander und reisen dafür einmal monatlich zurück in unsere Finanz-Zukunft. In der zehnten Folge der Geldgeschichten schauen wir als erstes auf die US-amerikanische Antitrust-Gesetzgebung am Beispiel des Bell-Systems, danach gedenken wir der Beinahe-Kernschmelze des internationalen Finanzsystems, welche vor genau 25 Jahren durch die Pleite des Hedgefonds Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) ausgelöst wurde. Gerade einmal ein Zeitvorsprung von zwei Stunden ebneten den Weg für den Aufstieg und die Bildung eines der wohl größten Monopole in den letzten beiden Jahrhunderte. Der aus Schottland stammende Erfinder, Taubstummenlehrer und spätere Unternehmen Alexander Graham Bell legte mit seinem Patent für kommerziell verwertbares Telefongerät den Grundstein für die American Telephone and Telegraph Company – kurz: AT&T. Die wechselhafte Geschichte des einstigen Branchenprimus im nordamerikanischen Telekommunikationssektor ist eng mit einem beispiellosen wie kontroversiellen Gerichtsurteil in der US-Justizgeschichte verbunden. Doch warum währten die erhofften Effekte durch die Zerschlagung des Bell'schen Systems und die damit verknüpfte Hoffnung für einen stärkeren Branchenwettbewerb nur für eine recht kurze Dauer? Und was haben die „Baby Bells“ von AT&T nun konkret mit Microsofts „Baby Bills“ zu tun? Für unsere zweite Geldgeschichte begeben wir uns zurück in die jüngere Vergangenheit, zu einem einschneidenden Börsenereignis vor exakt 25 Jahren. Vier Buchstaben sind es, die seinerzeit in die Börsengeschichte eingegangen sind: LTCM. Das Kürzel steht für Long-Term Capital Management, ein Hedgefonds, dessen Pleite mit potenziell exorbitant hohen Folgekosten am 23. September 1998 gerade noch abgewendet werden konnte. Die sogenannte LTCM-Krise von 1998 ist nicht nur finanzhistorisch eine interessante Episode, sondern auch ein sehr anschauliches Beispiel für das bekannteste Federvieh im Börsenzoo, den schwarzen Schwan! Philosophisch führen uns Aufstieg und Fall des LTCM zur entscheidenden Frage bei linearen Entwicklungen in dynamischen Umfeldern beziehungsweise komplexen System: Wann ist Thanksgiving? Beleuchtet werden die aus der Not erfolgte Gründung des legendären Hedgefonds, sein rasanter Aufstieg, die nobelrpeisgekürte Handelsstrategie sowie sein abrupte Ende im Zuge der russischen Staatspleite 1998. Ebenso werfen wir einen Blick auf die Hauptprotagonisten in diesem Finanzdrama und die Gründe für ihr spektakuläres Scheitern. Eine frische Folge unseres gemeinsamen Podcastformats mit jeweils zwei lehrreichen Geldgeschichten erscheint an jedem letzten Freitag im Monat! Medienempfehlungen: ► Steve Coll: The Deal of the Century ► Peter Temin / Louis Galambos: The Fall of the Bell System ► The Dividend Post: Bell Enterprise Canada (BCE) ► William Yurcik: Judge Harold H. Greene ► Roger Lowenstein: Der große Irrtum ► Karl Popper: Das Elend des Historizismus ► Nassim Nicolas Taleb: Der Schwarze Schwan

Victor Haghani is the author of a new book called The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Making Better Financial Decisions, which explores why family fortunes like the Vanderbilts' get destroyed in the hands of the heirs. Victor knows a lot about wild swings in wealth. As co-founding partner of the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), Victor saw the hedge fund's value soar over the first years of its existence then plummet spectacularly, losing 90% of its value in the first nine months of 1998. It was bailed out by a consortium of banks that injected $3.6 billion under the supervision of the Federal Reserve. In this conversation and his new book, Victor graciously shares candid insights from this harrowing experience, discusses the emotional roller coaster of his fund's very public implosion, and reminds us of some facts many have forgotten: that the banks got their money back as did most of the original investors. Unfortunately, a few investors got washed out, as did the founders. Victor tells Paul how he balanced regret with the need to move forward. Victor graduated from London School of Economics then started his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers where he eventually became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group made famous by Michael Lewis in Liars Poker. His participation in the failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing. Through a careful study of the academic literature on investing and many thought-provoking discussions with friends, colleagues, and investors of all backgrounds,Victor concluded that savers can and should do much better. He founded Elm Wealth in 2011 to help investors, including his own family, manage their savings in a disciplined, research-based, cost-effective manner and to capture the long-term returns they ought to earn.  See more about The Missing Billionaires and Elm Wealth here and connect with Victor here. ⭐ Rate and Review Crazy Money here. (Seriously, do it!)⭐  ✍️ Get Paul's writing to your Inbox here. (Seriously, do this also!) ✍️

Les quatre années de harcèlement, de calomnies, diffamations, dénigrement et parfois menaces de mort qu'aura subi le Professeur Didier Raoult, pourtant l'expert le plus cité et de loin le plus influent au monde en matière de maladies infectieuses, ne sont pas un simple phénomène isolé. Il s'est en effet installé, lentement, depuis des décennies, une corruption académique presque systémique, qui n'en pas sans rappeler celle de la finance, qui a elle donné lieu aux scandales de fraudes majeures de 2008, du LIBOR, ou de LTCM en 1997. La structure, la sociologie, l'organisation des moyens de financement du monde académique, ainsi que son système de notation récent (notamment celui des classements universitaires) encourage des comportements grégaires et irrationnels, voire haineux, qui n'ont plus rien à voir avec la science. De surcroît, alors que cela devait être au Savoir de régner sur le Pouvoir, c'est désormais le Pouvoir qui décide de ce qui est ou n'est pas le Savoir, comme au plus pur temps du Lyssenkisme où les apparatchiks du Soviet Suprême avaient décidé que la génétique n'était qu'une "science bourgeoise". Si depuis 2019 personne n'a mieux affronté et résisté à ce phénomène monstrueux que le Professeur Didier Raoult, nous faisons le point avec lui pour vous former et vous informer sur la crise scientifique mondiale. Le Professeur Raoult interviendra également en conférence plénière avec Votre Serviteur les 7 et 8 octobre au Québec, à l'occasion de la parution de son autobiographie

If the wealthiest families of the past century spent a reasonable amount of their wealth, invested in the stock market, and paid taxes, there would be thousands of billionaires today. But there aren't. So, what happened? To answer this question, we are joined by authors and finance professionals, Victor Haghani and James White. Their recently released book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, uses the missing billionaires puzzle to explore how and why most investors fail to capture the returns offered by the market. Victor was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the multi-billion-dollar hedge fund that famously collapsed in 1998 and nearly took the global financial markets down with it. His participation in the downfall of LTCM led him to reassess much of the way he thought about investing, and in this episode, he shares some simple but powerful frameworks and personal finance recommendations. We also receive accessible explanations of the Merton model and expected utility theory from James, take a deep dive into dynamic asset allocation, discuss optimal solutions for lifetime spending, and learn more about the certainty equivalent return and Sharpe ratios, plus so much more. Whether you're an entrepreneur invested in your own business or simply focused on building long-term wealth, Victor and James' book (and this conversation about it) will be a valuable resource for better financial decision-making, so be sure to tune in today!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:05:19) The puzzle of the missing billionaires (and why it matters to Victor and James).  (0:09:45) Some common but critical financial decision-making problems most people face.  (0:12:39) Unpacking the coin-flipping experiment in their ‘What's Past is Not Prologue' paper.  (0:19:57) What investors should aim to maximize when sizing positions in risky assets.  (0:24:22) An example that illustrates how the Merton model relates to bullish bets.  (0:29:04) What the Merton share tells us about dynamic asset allocation if it is or isn't possible to estimate expected equity returns.  (0:35:29) How real expected returns affect optimal risky shares for long-term investors.  (0:37:29) Different ways to forecast volatility to determine the optimal risky share.  (0:42:00) Easy-to-understand definitions of the utility curve and expected utility theory.  (0:50:20) Using the certainty equivalent return and Sharpe ratio to evaluate investments.  (0:57:56) Whether or not options belong in the portfolios of typical retail investors.   (0:59:01) If expected utility is a good model for normative personal finance recommendations. (1:05:16) How Victor's experience with LTCM affected him, both professionally and personally.  (1:09:08) What optimal solutions for lifetime investing and spending look like.   (1:22:22) Questions to ask yourself to work out your own utility function and risk aversion. (1:28:19) Victor and James' parting financial advice and respective definitions of success.  Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-270-what-happened-to-all-the-billionaires-with-victor-haghani-and-james-white/25122 Books From Today's Episode: The Missing Billionaires – https://www.amazon.com/Missing-Billionaires/dp/1119747910 Stumbling on Happiness — https://www.amazon.com/Stumbling-Happiness-Daniel-Gilbert/dp/1400077427 The Man Who Solved the Market – https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Solved-Market-Revolution/dp/B07P1NNTSD Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Victor Haghani on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/victorhaghani/ James White on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-white-b4310a47/ Elm Wealth — https://elmwealth.com/ When Genius Failed — https://www.amazon.com/When-Genius-Failed/dp/0375758259/ Where are all the Billionaires?: Victor Haghani at TEDxSPS – https://youtu.be/1yJWABvUXiU ‘What's Past is Not Prologue' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3034686 ‘Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case' – https://www.jstor.org/stable/1926560 ‘Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends' – https://www.jstor.org/stable/2328190 ‘No Place to Hide: Investing in a World With No Risk-Free Asset' – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3903372 ‘Sharpening Sharpe Ratios' – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=325942 ‘A Sharper Lens for Sizing Up Nickels and Steamrollers' – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2874602 ‘Do Options Belong in the Portfolios of Individual Investors?' – https://elmwealth.com/do-options-belong-in-portfolios/  

Welcome to a special retrospective edition of the Alpha Exchange, narrated by yours truly. I'm a big fan of consequential events in market history as they provide a great opportunity to learn about the conditions under which asset prices can become unruly.Are there commonalities in these episodes that might allow us to develop a roadmap for why, how and when they might occur?  From a risk management perspective, what are the key lessons of vol events?In this context, it's difficult not to reflect on the nearly unmanageable unwind of Long Term Capital that occurred 25 years ago. Over the next 50 minutes or so, I set out to take you through some of this important event from my own perspective and along the way bring in insights shared by guests of our podcast. I hope you enjoy it.

Chapter 1 What's the Book Buffett"Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" is a biography written by Roger Lowenstein that explores the life and investment strategies of Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors in history. Published in 1995, the book delves into Buffett's early years, his journey to becoming a billionaire, and his approach to investing. It provides insights into his value investing philosophy, long-term thinking, and his unique ability to identify undervalued companies. The book offers readers a comprehensive understanding of Buffett's life, career, and the principles that guided his remarkable success in the world of finance.Chapter 2 Is the Book Buffett Worth ReadThe book "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" by Roger Lowenstein is a highly regarded biography on the life and investing principles of Warren Buffett. It offers valuable insights into Buffett's investment philosophy, his strategies for success, and his overall approach to business. If you are interested in learning about one of the most successful investors of our time and gaining knowledge about value investing, then this book is definitely worth considering. It provides a comprehensive understanding of Warren Buffett's journey and the factors that contributed to his remarkable achievements. However, it's important to note that reading any book ultimately depends on personal preference and interests. If you have no interest in finance or investing, this book may not resonate with you as much. But if you are intrigued by the world of investing and want to learn from one of the best, "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" is a recommended read.Chapter 3 Buffett SummaryBuffett: The Making of an American Capitalist is a remarkable biography that explores the life and achievements of one of the world's most renowned investors, Warren Buffett. This article delves into the captivating story documented in the book, shedding light on the fascinating journey that shaped Buffett into the legendary financier he is today. From his humble beginnings to his groundbreaking investment strategies, we uncover the key milestones and insights that have made Buffett an icon in the realm of finance. Join us as we unravel the secrets behind the making of this extraordinary American capitalist.Chapter 4 Buffett AuthorRoger Lowenstein is an American financial journalist and author. He has written several books on finance and investing, including "When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management" and "The End of Wall Street." Lowenstein is known for his ability to explain complex financial concepts in a clear and engaging manner. In "When Genius Failed," Lowenstein provides a detailed account of the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in the late 1990s. He delves into the risky investment strategies employed by LTCM and how they ultimately led to its downfall. The book offers valuable insights into the dangers of excessive risk-taking and the interconnectedness of the global financial system. "The End of Wall Street" examines the causes and consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. Lowenstein analyzes the housing bubble, the practices of mortgage lenders, the role of rating agencies, and the failures of regulatory oversight that contributed to the crisis. He explores the aftermath of the crisis and raises important questions about the sustainability of the financial industry's practices. Overall, Roger Lowenstein's work provides readers with a deeper

Our latest podcast episode is here, and it's all about exploring the different ways investors make money in the market. From thrilling arbitrage strategies to the art of short-term trading, we'll cover it all in a language that even your neighbour's fish could understand (well, almost!). But that's not all—our experts will take you on a journey through long-term fundamental investing and quantitative approaches too. Expect some fascinating stories, like the infamous LTCM blow-up, and how best investors (& trades) made their fortunes. We'll also unravel the logic behind the elusive VC's hunt for 50x returns and how even "value stocks" need a dash of momentum. So, whether you're an investing enthusiast or just curious about the market's mysterious ways, you won't want to miss this one. References 00:38 What do you think about the new all-time high? How do you view different types of investing strategies in the market and how to make money from these strategies? 24:27 The problem with peoples expectations: When I say stock markets do 12%, people expect this to be linear. 27:00 Concept of Expectancy 33:29 Problem in arbitrage is competition, so you need to lever yourself up 38:21 Option volatility trading - sell options expiring in 2 days and make the decay 46:32 When VC wins they need to win huge 49:50 Nifty monthly returns - how do quant strategies do? 56:52 We have just hit all time high. Based on the past data, how long can this good time potentially last? Which one is your favourite investing strategy? Liked the episode? Just tweet to us at @capitalmind_in and let us know. That's all we need to keep going!

In questo episodio Lorenzo Brigatti e Lorenzo Volpi analizzano l'ascesa e la caduta di LTCM, un hedge fund istituito nel 1994 che aveva nel suo team premi nobel per l'economia ed è poi fallito rovinosamente quattro anni dopo, salvato per evitare un collasso dell'intero sistema finanziario.  Cosa possiamo imparare da questa storia?

I like to say that you learn the most in markets by studying the periods when things go horribly wrong. And in this spirit, Alpha Exchange guests are often asked to reflect back on risk events of great consequence. 2023 marks the 25th anniversary of the LTCM fiasco, an event too long ago to matter for anyone under the age of 40, even as there are valuable lessons to be had from this giant portfolio unwind. As we look back on this vol event from 1998, it was a pleasure to welcome Nicholas Dunbar, author of “Inventing Money: The Story of Long Term Capital”, to the podcast. With a background in math and physics and with a long stint at Risk Magazine, Nick was well equipped to explain how the effort to conquer markets through the science of derivatives ultimately failed. Along the way, he provides a brief history of how option theory has developed, brings to life key players in the story and dives in to technical details of LTCM's trades. We learn about the dangers of models, leverage, hubris and crowding all at once.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Nick Dunbar.

Los 16 miembros de la junta directiva de Long Term Capital Management tenían de media el coeficiente intelectual más alto que la directiva de cualquier compañía de Estados Unidos durante los años noventa, incluyendo a empresas como Microsoft o Apple.Los 16 miembros de la junta directiva de Long Term Capital Management sumaban entre todos casi 400 años de experiencia financiera.Las valoraciones parecen sacadas de los highlights vacíos de las crónicas de los estrenos de cine de la semana. Pero son las ocurrencias de un tal Warren Buffett sobre la quiebra del mayor hedge fund de los noventa, que llegó a reunir a Liga de Las Mentes Extraordinarias. Las declaraciones las suelta en un discurso en la Escuela de Negocios de la Universidad de Florida en 1998.Dos premios Nobel de Economía, profesores de Harvard, Stanford y el MIT. Matemáticos y un vicepresidente de la Reserva Federal. Eran como Los Vengadores de las finanzas; como el PSG coleccionando cromos, pero ganando copas de Europa. Eran como juntar en un estudio a los Beatles, los Rolling Stones y Led Zeppelin, y a ver qué salía. Eran el Dream Team de Estados Unidos, el de verdad, el de Barcelona 92. Genios. Putos genios en lo suyo, perfectamente engranados, para ser una máquina de hacer dinero. Y todos bajo la batuta John Meriwether, un inversor más conocido que Gordon Gekko, pero con flequillo rebelde.No conviene hacer coñas con John Meriwether, por mucho que el peluquero de Trump empezara a hacer prácticas con su pelo. Era el Michael Jordan de los bonos. Con una sola llamada suya, hundía la deuda de un país soberano o de cualquier empresa. Sobrevivió en aquella Hoguera de la Vanidades que fue Salomon Brothers, los tipos chungos de Wall street durante los 80 y 90. Al mercado de bonos le empezaron a llamar renta fija porque no se movían ni un pelo, sin el consentimiento de los chicos de Salomon. Llámalo chiste malo o licencia periodística, pero Salomon Brothers era el mayor capo financiero de la época y se merecen más de un podcast de historia financiera, y no solo por inspirar la novela de Tom Wolfe, o por empujar a los brazos del periodismo a Michael Lewis, en busca redención. Meriwether era el más listo de la cuadrilla de LTCM, también el que infundía más respeto, y el que más sabía de cómo se movía el dinero a lo grande en Wall Street.JM, por mucho que parezca un malo sacado de la serie Dallas o Dinastía, fue el cerebro y creador de uno de los mayores vehículos de inversión de todos los tiempos. Pero LTCM quebró. Por todo lo alto, con un castañazo de los que hacen época y pasando con capítulos especiales al libro gordo de la Historia de la Finanzas. La verdad sea dicha, antes de hundirse con todo, su nombre ya estaba grabado con letras de oro. El capital inicial, de apenas 1.000 millones de dólares, se había multiplicado por siete, y había llegado a ofrecer rentabilidades anualizadas del 40%.Pero quebró, como decíamos, y a lo grande. El golpe todavía resuena, de lo grave que fue, y estuvo a punto de arrastrar a todo el sistema financiero mundial. En 1998, se vivió un 'Momento Lehman'. En ese momento nadie sabía lo que era eso, pero estuvieron al borde de la extinción económica, como pasó 10 años después con Lehman Brothers, al convertirse en el sumidero por donde se podía ir al garate la economía mundial. De hecho, por aquel entonces, la entidad financiera estaba dando los primeros pasos en el negocio de empaquetar hipotecas.La Reserva Federal de Alan Greenspan, el tipo de la exuberancia irracional de los mercados, y el banquero central con más hora de vuelo a los mandos de la nave de la política monetaria, tuvo que intervenir en plan bombero, orquestando una inyección de 3.500 millones de dólares, para liquidar el fondo de manera organizada. Una limosna, comoparado con los 700.000 millones movilizados por Estados Unidos en el macro rescate bancario de 2008, pero eran otros tiempos y a Greenspan se le puede criticar muchas cosas, pero, en esta ocasión, logró que el contribuyente no pusiera ni medio dólar y que la loca fiesta de las bolsas continuara hasta la siguiente crisis.

LEONES CONTRA GACELAS – PARTE 2 – APRENDAMOS DE LOS ERRORES LEONES CONTRA GACELAS de José Luis CárpatosEn la segunda parte hace un repaso a algunos de los más famosos errores la Historia; el mercado de la plata y los hermanos Hunt, la historia del LTCM, la burbuja de los mares del sur, la quiebra del Banco Barings, etc. UNETE A ESTE CANAL Y ESCUCHA MÁS DE 30 AUDIOLIBROS DE TRADING, NEGOCIOS, ECONOMÍA, CRECIMIENTO PERSONAL Y MÁS ¡GRATIS! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChPrWOE-PStG33VCLAOREag Escúchalos por podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/show/trading-books-los-mejores-libros-de-trad_2 https://open.spotify.com/show/44t0OLA3iXHxdZZxO5rAgM Canal de Música Lo-Fi para tu trading: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQOkoOX2xjqMhhe2hsqmdrQ ¡Ahora en Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/audiolibrosdetrading/ ¡SUBSCRIBETE! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChPrWOE-PStG33VCLAOREag Twitter: https://twitter.com/AprendamosTrad #vivirdeltrading #audiolibrosdetrading #trading

Before his FTX cryptocurrency empire collapsed, many of Sam Bankman-Fried's public statements indicated that he made decisions “as though he had no risk aversion,” according to Victor Haghani, the founder and chief investment officer of Elm Partners Management and a co-founder of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund. Haghani joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how Bankman-Fried's tolerance for risk made him highly unusual under the “theory of choice under uncertainty,” and how the causes of FTX's implosion differ from what triggered the failure of LTCM. Haghani also discusses his own approach to assessing risk when investing client assets at Elm Partners. (Note: This episode was recorded in early December, before Bankman-Fried was indicted for his alleged role in FTX's failure.)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Conversaciones difíciles. ¿Momentos Lehman o momento LTCM? Utilities y energía. Abolición de los margin calls. Invasión de Rusia a Ucrania.

 90% des automobilistes se pensent meilleurs conducteurs que la moyenne! Et en bourse c'est la même chose, beaucoup d'investisseurs essayent de battre le marché ... qui n'est autre que la moyenne des investisseurs. Comment identifier cet excès de confiance et comment le combattre ? - Vidéo sur la faillite de LTCM: https://youtu.be/68k6QsJ9GLY - Vidéo sur l'effet Dunning-Kruger: https://youtu.be/19T6nVhBHpo

Welcome to the 100th Episode of the Alpha Exchange.  Here we do a podcast retrospective, looking back at some of the themes and insights shared over the past 4 years. I want to thank you for listening. We've been fortunate to attract a substantial audience of accomplished professionals. And that's really the result of the quality of our guests.  I want to express sincere gratitude to our guests for taking me up on the invite to come on our show.What I've sought to do through these discussions is to make a contribution to our industry's understanding of risk. That, literally is the Alpha that I hope emerges from the Exchange. One way we do this is to look backwards, reviewing consequential periods of market disruption.  There is an old saying, that “history is a foreign country”.  If that is the case, I say that the “history of risk is another planet”. We learn the most by studying the periods when things went horribly wrong. But a human condition and weakness is simply that we forget. Risk management suffers from failure of the imagination. In discussing these events, my hope is to raise the antennae of our listeners, perhaps planting a seed for further investigation or alerting you to a vulnerability previously unappreciated.Over the course of this retrospective episode, we highlight the thought process and perspectives of guests, looking back on crisis events like the '87 crash, the LTCM unwind, the GFC and the Pandemic market disruption.  We cover the Meme stock episode of 2021 and also the crypto crash of 2022 and more.  I hope you enjoy our 100th episode and thank you again for listening.

On this week's show we discuss the ever-changing narratives in the stock market and economy, iron-clad rules of investing, why markets are so confusing right now, a wider bid-ask spread in the housing market, crypto's LTCM moment and much more. Find complete shownotes on our blogs...  Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense  Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor  Like us on Facebook  And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. 

Matt and Nic return for news and deals of the week. In this episode:  Damien Hirst's physical NFT project  Why you need a bridge between the physical and the digital world for certain NFTs  Why physical NFTs provide advantages to collectors and brands Libra/Diem spawns Aptos and Sui Coinbase is under SEC investigation  Pat Toomey criticizes the SEC What is in the bipartisan stablecoin bill?  Squabbles over Voyager's Chapter 11 plan  The UK inches towards recognizing cryptocurrency as property More 3AC shenanigans  How 3AC was and wasn't like LTCM  3AC liquidators will try to force cooperation  Tether reduces their commercial paper holdings  Matt starts a Tether conspiracy  Harmony mulls a post-hack bailout Content mentioned in this episode:  Coin Metrics state of the network 165 Nic on Medium, Redeem-and-retain NFTs are the future of luxury goods FS Vector, Stablecoin Legislation Update  UK Law Commission: Digital Assets Consultation Paper Sponsor notes: Subscribe to the Coin Metrics State of the Network newsletter

On today's show, Michael J. Casey, CoinDesk's Chief Content Officer, takes a look at a history of brilliant failures and what we can learn from them.Read the full story here.This episode was edited & produced by Adrian Blust with original music by Doc Blust & Colin MealeySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As Chief Market Strategist at Jones Trading, Mike O'Rourke spends his time studying price, flows and policy and the complex interaction among these factors. Getting his start in the mid 90's as the tech bubble was gaining momentum and both the Asian Currency crisis and LTCM event would occur, he's gained an appreciation for how impactful flows and crowdedness can be on asset prices in both directions. The study of markets is complicated by agents of price agnostic demand. Here Mike points to the era of activism and transparency among Central Banks in the post GFC era of disinflation. He makes the point that this period of inflation shortfall was likely driven by a 20 year cycle of globalization that has largely ended. In the aftermath is persistently high inflation and far less forward guidance from major Central Banks.Presently, Mike sees the potential for more downside in markets, especially as financial conditions, while off their lows, could need to tighten considerably more in order for the Fed to push inflation lower. In terms of the tail risks on his radar, Mike worries about a multi-year unwind of excess resulting from the stimulus that went into the market in the period after the Pandemic. He also fears a potential showdown between Central Banks and market prices, especially the ECB and the BoJ.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Mike O'Rourke.

LEONES CONTRA GACELAS – PARTE 2 – APRENDAMOS DE LOS ERRORESLEONES CONTRA GACELAS de José Luis CárpatosEn la segunda parte hace un repaso a algunos de los más famosos errores la Historia; el mercado de la plata y los hermanos Hunt, la historia del LTCM, la burbuja de los mares del sur, la quiebra del Banco Barings, etc.

Matt and Nic return for a fiery episode of deals and news. In this episode:  Is miner selling backed up by the on-chain data?  Is Massachusetts open to pro-crypto legislation?  FTX provides credit support to embattled crypto lenders  Why private market transactions do not constitute bailouts in the pejorative sense Was 3 Arrows just a case of too much leverage and bad trades, or was it fraud?  Does the 3AC situation stray into criminal territory?  There were significant harms stemming from the 3AC scheme Kyle's infamous On The Brink appearance and his special request  Did GBTC bring down 3AC?  Are we entering the PvP era of crypto twitter?  The story behind 3AC's yacht  Solend requisitions user funds  Wartime versus peacetime governance in DeFi South Korea puts a travel ban on Terraform labs employees DYDX is leaving Ethereum and moving to their own chain  The relationship between lender balance sheets and GBTC  Is there a case to be made for winding down GBTC? How to think about the GBTC trade today How the 3AC GBTC trade is like LTCM  How to think about the "macro"  Is the 'crypto hedge fund that also does VC' obsolete?  Sponsor notes: Subscribe to the Coin Metrics State of the Network newsletter

Russell Napier is the author of The Solid Ground Newsletter. He began writing the global macro-strategy report in 1995 for CLSA, a capital markets and investment group based in Hong Kong. He forecast what was to become the Asian Economic Crisis and was voted Asia's #1 equity strategist in all of the leading polls at the time. His forecasts were compiled in a book he published last summer, “The Asian Financial Crisis of 1995–1998: Birth of the Age of Death.”  The world is living through a breakdown in the global monetary system. He has advised clients to invest for the outcome versus just living in another business cycle expansion. That's why I subscribe to his newsletter and value his views. He isn't afraid to stand for what he believes in. Learn more about his book in this episode of Upthinking Finance™.  Russell Napier is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:50] Why Russell decided to dissect his analysis in his book [8:22] What it's like to be the guy with the unpopular opinion [11:11] How to understand what was happening in Asia [14:22] Why it's important to understand the underlying conflict [17:14] The importance of studying financial history [20:08] Where the Asian Financial Crisis originated  [22:49] What Russell didn't see coming in his forecasting  [25:48] What is the idea of “The birth of debt?” [31:00] Monetary systems follow a circular trend [33:33] How you would benefit from reading Russell's book [36:56] The currency board system in Argentina [41:33] What's happening next in Russell's world How to understand what was happening in AsiaLet's assume that a government authority is running the Hong Kong peg, linked at a set rate to the US Dollar. If there are lots of buy orders for the currency, it will push the exchange rate up. But let's say it's not allowed to go up, so the government entity must intervene in the stock market. When it intervenes, the government accumulates United States Treasuries on the asset side of the balance sheet.  But people forget to focus on the liability side of the balance sheet. The government has to buy treasuries with newly created Hong Kong money in the form of commercial bank reserves. It's exactly what happens with quantitative easing—assets go up and the central bank's liabilities go up. It is supposed to lead to an economic boom. That's what was happening in Asia.  The assets accumulated by the Asian Central bank were treasuries from someone else's bond market. Some of the banking systems were growing their assets by 30% annually, an unbelievable boom fueled by the exchange rate policy. There was no incentive for anyone to intervene.  Where the Asian Financial Crisis originated It all started with Thailand and then bled to Russia. In the 90s, Korea was one of the biggest exporting countries in the world. When their currency went under, the world was flooded with cheap products from Korea. It played a key role in bankrupting Russia. Brazil was next. It was toward the tail end that it brought down Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).  The Fed slashed interest rates and bailed out LTCM. It sent a message that if anything happened in the markets that would be bad for the American economy, Alan Greenspan would intervene. The reaction of Greenspan transformed the next 20 years. The entire US monetary policy was altered because one hedge fund was in trouble. People were shocked. So they borrowed like crazy.  What Russell...

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Il probabile default tecnico del debito pubblico della Russia, che potrebbe scattare a partire dal prossimo mese se gli interessi dovuti su vari bond in scadenza saranno pagati in rubli e non in dollari, può scatenare un effetto domino sui mercati e creare una tempesta finanziaria globale?Nel precedente default di Mosca, che risale al 1998, la crisi rischiò davvero di far vacillare Wall Street....LINK UTILI:➡ Canale Telegram: www.t.me/tradetector➡ Sito TraDetector: www.tradetector.com➡ MiFP: www.masterinfinanzapersonale.com➡ AIEP: www.educazionepatrimoniale.it

The still-nascent world of trading derivatives on cryptocurrencies requires more than just expertise in the math of options and trade construction. Pricing relationships can be driven by flows, by changes in sentiment and by regulatory tape bombs. For Ari Pine, Co-Founder of Digital Gamma, adeptness in financial technology is critical as well. Disparate venues, unique margin relationships and economic nuances in products across different exchanges all require a heavy lift with respect to creating a robust risk management infrastructure.Working with his partners at Digital Gamma, Ari is mining the raft of data that is emerging from the 24/7 trading of the many new assets in the digital sphere. Our conversation is part retrospective on the history of risk events. Through our discussions of the Orange County and LTCM debacles in the 1990's, Ari shares lessons imparted by episodes of market volatility and the pitfalls of being overly wed to pricing models.  We spend the balance of time discussing the financial properties of bitcoin – both in the portfolio context and with respect to how its movements help shape the implied volatility surface of options. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ari Pine.

For the last podcast of 2021 we're joined by our good friend and colleague Amilcar Davy, CMAA's Director of Research. Amilcar shares with us the current state of research initiatives, specifically more about the upcoming Finance & Operations Report, and gives us some insight into what is coming next. We follow that up with a few important legislative updates from Melissa related to H-2B visas and the OSHA ETS regarding vaccine and testing requirements for employers. From all of us here at LTCM and CMAA, we wish you and yours a happy, healthy, and safe holiday season. Be safe, be well, and we'll talk to you in the New Year.

Victor Haghani is an ETF investor with one of the most storied resumes as one of the founding partners of the famous Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund, which employed Nobel-Prize winning economists and renowned Wall Street traders until its epic blowup in 1998. His path is rare but not totally unique as even many of the smartest active management minds on Wall Street have either morphed into indexers or use index funds or ETFs for their personal investments. On this episode of Trillions, Eric and Joel speak with Haghani about his days on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers, the culture and mindset of Long-Term Capital Management, and his emerging low-cost ETF advisory business that he started for friends and family but has since expanded. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Greg Foss has over 30 years experience in high-yield credit trading & capital structure arbitrage. We sit down to discuss: - High yield trading, credit default swaps & Bitcoin as the Anti-Fiat - Why Bitcoin is extremely cheap default insurance & the best asymmetric trade - The wholesale transfer of risk to government  - If the next financial crisis is the last - How there is no other buyer of last resort   - 2008 GFC, The Big Short, QE, TARP, bailouts, LTCM, CBDCs & pension funds - & so much more

Leverage is essentially borrowing money to increase your returns. LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) was a hedge fund started by John Meriwether in the 90's. This fund used leverage as a way to make incredible returns for investors... Until it went bust. Tune in to this episode to learn about the LTCM story and what went wrong. I'll also cover 2 non-financial ways to use leverage in your daily life. Podcast website: Wall Street Vision Investing Podcast Get in touch with Vlad: Wall Street Vision - Contact Disclaimer: This podcast is for entertainment purposes only and should not be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. I may maintain positions in the securities discussed on this podcast. This show is copyrighted by the Wall Street Vision, written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

If you want to know anything in the world of geopolitics and economics then Jim Rickards is your guy! He knows what he's talking about. Why? Because gets been there done that; he helped negotiate the Fed bailout of LTCM in the late '90s, he regularly consults with the CIA and other government agencies...people in positions of power want his inputs and he shares some of that experience with me as we discuss his soon-to-be published 6th book, "The New Great Depression". A book about the pandemic and how it has ravaged the US (and global) economy and what are some things you can do moving forward to take advantage of the opportunities that every crisis brings about. A great discussion about the lasting effects of the policies put in place during these unprecedented times. Enjoy! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app