Podcasts about ltcm

In this episode, Clay explores When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein, the gripping story of the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).  Founded by Wall Street's brightest minds, including Nobel Prize-winning economists, LTCM generated astronomical returns using complex mathematical models and extreme leverage—until a financial crisis in 1998 exposed its fatal flaws. Clay also discusses the dangers of overconfidence, the illusion of diversification, and why excessive leverage can be a ticking time bomb.  Additionally, he shares details on an exclusive value investing event hosted by TIP in Big Sky, Montana, in September 2025. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:34 - How John Meriwether and a team of Wall Street's brightest minds, including Nobel laureates, built a hedge fund that seemed invincible, using sophisticated financial models and extreme leverage. 25:55 - LTCM's reliance on mathematical models that assumed markets behaved rationally, leading them to underestimate the possibility of extreme events. 48:30 - How the Russian debt default triggered widening credit spreads, exposing LTCM's overleveraged positions and leading to catastrophic losses. 54:49 - Why LTCM's failure posed systemic risks to the global financial system, forcing the Fed to coordinate a rescue with major Wall Street banks. 01:08:17 - The dangers of excessive leverage, overconfidence in financial models, and the mistaken belief that markets always revert to historical norms. 01:15:09 - How to attend our new value investing event in Big Sky, Montana, bringing together passionate investors for deep discussions and meaningful connections. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Lowenstein's book: When Genius Failed. Mentioned book: Big Mistakes. Related Episode: Listen to TIP514: Permanent Supply Chain Disruptions that Will Destroy the Economy w/ Jim Rickards. Email Shawn at shawn@theinvestorspodcast.com to attend our free events in Omaha or visit this page. Follow Clay on X. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock Found SimpleMining CFI Education The Bitcoin Way Unchained Netsuite Fintool Shopify Onramp Vanta TurboTax Fundrise HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

From LTCM Collapse to $2B Success: Victor Haghani's Path with Elm Wealth and Dynamic Index Investing® Website: www.ElmWealth.comTicker: $ELMBioBio Victor Haghani graduated from the London School of Economics in 1984. He worked for Salomon Brothers in New York in research and on the bond arbitrage desk from 1984-1993. In 1993, Victor was a co-founding partner and co-headed the London office of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. He founded Elm Wealth in 2011 to help clients, including his own family, manage and preserve their wealth through Dynamic Index Investing®, an investment approach pioneered at Elm. Victor discussed the potential benefits of combining the best features of passive and active investing in a TEDx talk he gave on investing, Where Are All the Billionaires and Why Should We Care?. Victor has been a prolific contributor to the academic and practitioner finance literature, writing many articles published in peer-reviewed academic journals, anthologies, and mainstream news media. Victor has helped run several widely referenced investor psychology experiments, often based on subjects betting real money on uncertain, positive edge opportunities (Coin Flip game and Crystal Ball challenge). He is a co-author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions (Wiley, 2023), which was named to The Economist's Best Books of 2023 list.

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 05:00:00 +0000 https://morningbull.podigee.io/1212-new-episode a81ce6ee30694824f425596b8af886e5 full "Imaginez une bande de prix Nobel de finance, des mecs sûrs d'eux, qui pensent avoir trouvé une formule magique pour battre les marchés… Et qui finissent par déclencher une crise MONDIALE. no Morningbull,Swissquote,Bourse,Finance,LTCM,Alan Greenspan Thomas Veillet et Vincent Ganne vous proposent un tour d'horizon de to

Victor Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers and shortly after became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. He was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management and established its London office. The failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing. His new book - The Missing Billionaires is a personal finance book that examines why there are so few "old money" billionaires on the current rich lists. The book focuses on poor risk decisions, both in investing and spending. Many of the millionaires from 125 years ago didn't choose bad investments– they simply sized them incorrectly– and allowed their spending decisions to amplify this mistake. The Missing Billionaires book offers a framework for making important lifetime financial decisions in a systematic and rational way. In today's interview Victor discusses how much risk an investor should take to safely grow their wealth or how much of a good thing is too much? The Missing Billionaires on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3OIr6u8 Subscribe to Victor's Mailing List: https://elmwealth.com/elm-in-the-press/ Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Business Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org

✍︎: The Curious Worldview Newsletter - the ultimate compliment to the podcast...Bill BrowderNassim TalebFollow me on Instagram - @ryanfhoggThis is an interview with Victor Haghani who is among many other things… the Co-Founder of LTCM (long term capital management), the Founder of Elm Wealth and the author of Missing Billionaires.In this interview we focused on Victor himself... his experiences at Solomon in the 80s and a brush with Bill Browder (who by the way was recently knighted), comments on Jim Simons and Nassim Taleb, an incredible moment of serendipity that would have changed his life forever and ultimately an exploration of Victor's worldview...00:00 – Who Is Victor Haghani01:40 - 1997 Nobel Prize & Stockholm07:47 - Solomon Brothers & Bill Browder Anecdote16:15 - 10 Year Sabbatical24:42 - Jim Simons30:49 - Missing Billionaires & Ergodicity52:40 - Baggage We Are Carrying Around From Our Evolutionary Past1:00:40 - Nassim Taleb1:04:40 - Potentially A Confrontational Question1:11:40 - Michael Burry Index Bubble Theory1:18:26 - An Incredible Moment Of Serendipity & Why Victor's Bullish On UK

Nel 1994 John Meriwether fonda Long Term Capital Management, l'hedge fund dei geni che annoverava premi Nobel e superstar del mondo della finanza e dell'accademia, e per 4 anni realizza risultati incredibili. Finché nel 1998, un evento del tutto inaspettato porta al più spettacolare fallimento a Wall Street fino a Lehman Brothers. Con Nicola Protasoni ripercorriamo questa storia, cerchiamo di trarne insegnamenti per la nostra vita da investitori e parliamo di facciamo qualche ragionamento pratico per i nostri portafogli. The Italian Leather Sofa R. Lowenstein, When Genius Failed Seguiteci anche su Instagram! =============================================== Investi con Scalable in ETF e Azioni a costi imbattibili. L'Assicurazione sulla Vita semplice e conveniente: Turtleneck Migliaia di audiolibri riassunti in 15 minuti con 4Books. Ottieni le migliori tariffe per Luce, Gas, Internet e Cellulare con Switcho. I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: nessun contenuto di questo podcast deve essere inteso come una raccomandazione di investimento. La citazione di determinati ETF è a mero scopo esemplificativo e non deve essere intesa in alcun modo come una sollecitazione all'acquisto di specifici prodotti finanziari. L'autore non è un consulente finanziario e non intende presentarsi come tale. Investire comporta dei rischi. Affidatevi sempre a dei professionisti e/o assicuratevi sempre di aver compreso pienamente il funzionamento, le implicazioni e i rischi di ciascun prodotto finanziario prima di investirvi del denaro. L'autore non è inoltre collegato ad alcuna società emittente di prodotti di investimento. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Upcoming Event!How Can Mindfulness Help You Reach Financial Independence?Do you want to reduce money anxiety, but don't know who to trust?Would you like to learn how to set up and manage your own retirement plan?Do you want to know how we create a passive income stream you can't outlive?If yes, join us and learn how to answer the 4 critical financial independence questions:Am I on track for financial independence?What do I need to do to get on track?How do I design a mindful investing portfolio?How do I manage that portfolio and my income over time through changing markets?Learn more: https://courses.mindful.money/financial-independence-bootcampIn this episode, I speak with Victor Haghani, a Seasoned Financial Expert whose journey through the realms of high finance is nothing short of enlightening. Victor shares his rich history of Long-Term Capital Management. From his early days in New York and Iran to his pivotal roles at Salomon Brothers and finally to founding Elm Wealth. His insights into the evolution of his investment strategies, particularly his shift from high-stakes trading to a more sustainable, mindful approach to personal wealth management, are not just educational but deeply relatable. Victor's recent work, including his book "The Missing Billionaires," offers a fresh perspective on making sound financial decisions, which he discusses with a clarity that resonates well beyond the finance-savvy audience.The conversation dives into the practicalities of investing, the common pitfalls of financial decision-making, and the psychological aspects that often trip up even the most astute investors. Victor's approach to simplifying complex financial concepts and his emphasis on learning from past investment outcomes make this discussion a must-listen for anyone looking to navigate the often turbulent waters of personal finance. His personal anecdotes, combined with a straightforward breakdown of investment principles, provide a roadmap that encourages a more thoughtful, disciplined approach to managing money. Join us as we discuss actionable advice that promises to empower you to take control of your financial future with confidence and a newfound understanding.

Les 3 piliers de l'investissement sont relativement connus. Mais que se passe-t-il lorsque vous n'en avez que 2 ? Petit désagrément ou faillite potentielle ? Lien vers la vidéo sur LTCM : ici

Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro discusses his background and experience in finance and macroeconomics in this week's long-form on MSD. He shares the challenges of standing out in the macro research industry and the importance of making calls and learning from mistakes. The conversation then delves into the lessons learned from 2023 and the expectations for 2024. The similarities to the late 1990s cycle and the potential impact of rate cuts on asset prices are explored. Finally, the conversation concludes with a discussion on long-term demographic changes and their inflationary effects. In this conversation, Chase Taylor and Trevor discuss various topics including the impact of immigration and population decline, the rise in commodity prices, the demand for raw materials in digital infrastructure, and the role of gold as a safe haven. Chase Taylor shares his insights and observations on these subjects, providing valuable analysis and predictions. Overall, the conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global trends and the importance of understanding their implications.

To watch the full interview you can access it with our deep dive or membership site https://www.eurodollar.universityThis conversation wasn't just an inside account of LTCM and a recall of history at of those famous crossroads, Jim Rickards and Jeff ruminate over the implications from the affair which are still reverberating through time right up to this day. The struggles to contain the fallout from the debacle are every bit as relevant now as it was shocking way back then. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Highlights from this week's conversation include:The Ten Year Treasury and its Role in Booms (1:51)The End of an Era and the Impact of COVID-19 (5:09)Shocking Revelation of the Ten-Year Yield (9:31)Reset and Retooling (11:05)LP Perspective on Venture (13:11)Investing in Legacy Assets (15:21)Insider Segment: New and Emerging Trends for LPA (16:37)Raising capital in the current market (19:25)Limited partner agreement terms (20:38)Necessary skills for managers in the next decade (22:05)The time of opportunity (29:50)Safety is danger (30:52)Roxane Googin is a world renowned authority on macroeconomic technology trends and the Chief Futurist of the fintech venture firm Group 11. Previously, Roxane was the editor of High Tech Observer, a long running invite-only publication read by institutional portfolio managers focusing on disruption in the technology sector. Her bold predictions included an inflation-free stock market boom in the 1990s, culminating in the Internet boom from the depths of the LTCM credit crisis in 1998, the internet bubble demise in September 2000, and the introduction of smartphones and cloud computing in May 2002 through her much acclaimed article “Six Simultaneous Equations”, to name a few. In addition to engineering experience in development and manufacturing, Roxane has experienced finance from the cradle to the grave: from venture capital, through equity analysis, to term and finally to asset-based lending. She uses her broad experience to envision the disruptions that are bound to come our way. Roxane Googin has a BS-EE from the University of Tennessee and an MBA from the University of Virginia.Gunderson Dettmer is a law firm specializing in providing legal services to the startup and venture capital communities. With a primary focus on technology and life sciences sectors, the firm is known for its expertise in guiding emerging companies through various stages of growth, from formation to financing and beyond. Gunderson Dettmer's comprehensive legal support includes advice on corporate governance, intellectual property, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital transactions, making it a trusted partner for innovative enterprises navigating the complex legal landscape. Swimming with Allocators is a podcast that dives into the intriguing world of Venture Capital from an LP (Limited Partner) perspective. Hosts Alexa Binns and Earnest Sweat are seasoned professionals who have donned various hats in the VC ecosystem. Each episode, we explore where the future opportunities lie in the VC landscape with insights from top LPs on their investment strategies and industry experts shedding light on emerging trends and technologies. Follow along and subscribe at swimmingwithallocators.com.The information provided on this podcast does not, and is not intended to, constitute legal advice; instead, all information, content, and materials available on this podcast are for general informational purposes only.

The barrier to entry for online "fin-Influencers" is incredibly low, but responsible professional technical analysis covers an immense body of knowledge. In this episode, we dig into the complexity behind John's technical mosaic and the multi-factor models he uses. Yet, the simplicity with which he communicates market conditions and portfolio construction to his institutional clients cannot be overstated. While understanding "the health of the market" allows portfolio managers to responsibly take on risk for clients while maintaining situational awareness of market fragility, ignoring intermarket relationships and bottom-up trends leaves precious alpha off the table and presents career risk. Considering the ~60% rally of US equities off the LTCM low in 1998 to the peak in March of 2000, a lack of breadth is not reason enough to avoid market risk.The long and winding road of John's career on Wall St. allowed him to learn from many notable practitioners from his early days at Lehman Brothers to more recently as a buy-side technical strategist at Fidelity (FMR). He outlines a fascinating genealogy of technical analysts in his "family tree," which he takes great inspiration from and aspires to pay forward that is rooted in Robert J. Farell's Merrill Lynch technical research group. John is a huge advocate for technical analysis, where he is an adjunct university professor and an executive board member of the CMT Association.  Enjoy this insightful, informative, and hilarious episode of Fill the Gap with John Kolovos, CMT, CFA!Fill the Gap, hosted by David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Tyler Wood, CMT brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast. For complete show notes of every episode, visit: https://cmtassociation.org/development/podcasts/ Give us a shout:@dlundgren3333 or https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-lundgren-cmt-cfa-63b73b/@_TBone_Pickens or https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-wood-cmt-b8b0902/@CMTAssociation orhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/cmtassociationCMT Association is the global credentialing authority committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis in the financial services industry. We serve members in over 137 countries. Our mission is to elevate investors mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. CMT Association formed in the late 1960s with headquarters in lower Manhattan, NY and Mumbai, India.Learn more at: www.cmtassociation.org

Victor Haghani – Missing Billionaires w/ ex-LTCM partner & Elm Wealth Founder Victor Haghani started his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers, where he became an MD in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. Victor was a co-founding partner of LTCM. In 2011, Victor founded Elm Wealth to help clients, including his own family, manage and preserve their wealth with a thoughtful, research-based, and cost-effective approach that covers not just investment management but also broader decisions about wealth and finances.   In his TEDx talk, Where Are All the Billionaires and Why Should We Care? Victor shares his unique perspective on active versus passive investing. Victor has been a prolific contributor to the academic and practitioner finance literature. He is a co-author of the book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, which has just been released and is available on amazon and most other book sellers.   We talk about Victor's childhood, upbringing, and fascinating career. He shares his thoughts about managing his own wealth, and what he learned in the process. We focus on the missing billionaires as he calls them in his Ted talk and his book – given the fortunes that existed a hundred years ago, we should have many more billionaire inheritors and we don't – it's the ages old challenges of staying rich, and keeping a multi-generational fortune. We discuss position sizing, and asset allocation, how much should be invested in stocks. Victor shares some surprising learnings from a coin flipping competition study.   Stay tuned until the end if your are curious to hear Victor share a story of his very last Liar's Poker hand at Salomon Brothers…   https://www.amazon.com/Missing-Billionaires-Better-Financial-Decisions/dp/1119747910/ www.elmwealth.com --- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Crisis Investing: 100 Essays⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - My new book. To get regular updates and bonus content, please sign-up for my substack: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bogumilbaranowski.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow me on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/bogumil_nyc⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bogumil Baranowski⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sicart Associates, LLC⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE. IMPORTANT: As a reminder, the remarks in this interview represent the views, opinions, and experiences of the participants and are based upon information they believe to be reliable; however, Sicart Associates nor I have independently verified all such remarks. The content of this podcast is for general, informational purposes, and so are the opinions of members of Sicart Associates, a registered investment adviser, and guests of the show. This podcast does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security or financial instruments or provide investment advice or service. Past performance is not indicative of future results. More information on Sicart Associates is available via its Form ADV disclosure documents available ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠adviserinfo.sec.gov⁠⁠⁠ --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/talking-billions/message

Geldgeschichte(n): Das Bell-System & Die LTCM-Krise Im Rahmen unseres deutsch-österreichischen Verständigungsprojekts vereinen mein Bloggerkollege Clemens Faustenhammer und ich die zwei schönsten Nebensachen der Welt, nämlich Geld und Geschichte, miteinander und reisen dafür einmal monatlich zurück in unsere Finanz-Zukunft. In der zehnten Folge der Geldgeschichten schauen wir als erstes auf die US-amerikanische Antitrust-Gesetzgebung am Beispiel des Bell-Systems, danach gedenken wir der Beinahe-Kernschmelze des internationalen Finanzsystems, welche vor genau 25 Jahren durch die Pleite des Hedgefonds Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) ausgelöst wurde. Gerade einmal ein Zeitvorsprung von zwei Stunden ebneten den Weg für den Aufstieg und die Bildung eines der wohl größten Monopole in den letzten beiden Jahrhunderte. Der aus Schottland stammende Erfinder, Taubstummenlehrer und spätere Unternehmen Alexander Graham Bell legte mit seinem Patent für kommerziell verwertbares Telefongerät den Grundstein für die American Telephone and Telegraph Company – kurz: AT&T. Die wechselhafte Geschichte des einstigen Branchenprimus im nordamerikanischen Telekommunikationssektor ist eng mit einem beispiellosen wie kontroversiellen Gerichtsurteil in der US-Justizgeschichte verbunden. Doch warum währten die erhofften Effekte durch die Zerschlagung des Bell'schen Systems und die damit verknüpfte Hoffnung für einen stärkeren Branchenwettbewerb nur für eine recht kurze Dauer? Und was haben die „Baby Bells“ von AT&T nun konkret mit Microsofts „Baby Bills“ zu tun? Für unsere zweite Geldgeschichte begeben wir uns zurück in die jüngere Vergangenheit, zu einem einschneidenden Börsenereignis vor exakt 25 Jahren. Vier Buchstaben sind es, die seinerzeit in die Börsengeschichte eingegangen sind: LTCM. Das Kürzel steht für Long-Term Capital Management, ein Hedgefonds, dessen Pleite mit potenziell exorbitant hohen Folgekosten am 23. September 1998 gerade noch abgewendet werden konnte. Die sogenannte LTCM-Krise von 1998 ist nicht nur finanzhistorisch eine interessante Episode, sondern auch ein sehr anschauliches Beispiel für das bekannteste Federvieh im Börsenzoo, den schwarzen Schwan! Philosophisch führen uns Aufstieg und Fall des LTCM zur entscheidenden Frage bei linearen Entwicklungen in dynamischen Umfeldern beziehungsweise komplexen System: Wann ist Thanksgiving? Beleuchtet werden die aus der Not erfolgte Gründung des legendären Hedgefonds, sein rasanter Aufstieg, die nobelrpeisgekürte Handelsstrategie sowie sein abrupte Ende im Zuge der russischen Staatspleite 1998. Ebenso werfen wir einen Blick auf die Hauptprotagonisten in diesem Finanzdrama und die Gründe für ihr spektakuläres Scheitern. Eine frische Folge unseres gemeinsamen Podcastformats mit jeweils zwei lehrreichen Geldgeschichten erscheint an jedem letzten Freitag im Monat! Medienempfehlungen: ► Steve Coll: The Deal of the Century ► Peter Temin / Louis Galambos: The Fall of the Bell System ► The Dividend Post: Bell Enterprise Canada (BCE) ► William Yurcik: Judge Harold H. Greene ► Roger Lowenstein: Der große Irrtum ► Karl Popper: Das Elend des Historizismus ► Nassim Nicolas Taleb: Der Schwarze Schwan

Victor Haghani is the author of a new book called The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Making Better Financial Decisions, which explores why family fortunes like the Vanderbilts' get destroyed in the hands of the heirs. Victor knows a lot about wild swings in wealth. As co-founding partner of the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), Victor saw the hedge fund's value soar over the first years of its existence then plummet spectacularly, losing 90% of its value in the first nine months of 1998. It was bailed out by a consortium of banks that injected $3.6 billion under the supervision of the Federal Reserve. In this conversation and his new book, Victor graciously shares candid insights from this harrowing experience, discusses the emotional roller coaster of his fund's very public implosion, and reminds us of some facts many have forgotten: that the banks got their money back as did most of the original investors. Unfortunately, a few investors got washed out, as did the founders. Victor tells Paul how he balanced regret with the need to move forward. Victor graduated from London School of Economics then started his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers where he eventually became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group made famous by Michael Lewis in Liars Poker. His participation in the failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing. Through a careful study of the academic literature on investing and many thought-provoking discussions with friends, colleagues, and investors of all backgrounds,Victor concluded that savers can and should do much better. He founded Elm Wealth in 2011 to help investors, including his own family, manage their savings in a disciplined, research-based, cost-effective manner and to capture the long-term returns they ought to earn.  See more about The Missing Billionaires and Elm Wealth here and connect with Victor here. ⭐ Rate and Review Crazy Money here. (Seriously, do it!)⭐  ✍️ Get Paul's writing to your Inbox here. (Seriously, do this also!) ✍️

Les quatre années de harcèlement, de calomnies, diffamations, dénigrement et parfois menaces de mort qu'aura subi le Professeur Didier Raoult, pourtant l'expert le plus cité et de loin le plus influent au monde en matière de maladies infectieuses, ne sont pas un simple phénomène isolé. Il s'est en effet installé, lentement, depuis des décennies, une corruption académique presque systémique, qui n'en pas sans rappeler celle de la finance, qui a elle donné lieu aux scandales de fraudes majeures de 2008, du LIBOR, ou de LTCM en 1997. La structure, la sociologie, l'organisation des moyens de financement du monde académique, ainsi que son système de notation récent (notamment celui des classements universitaires) encourage des comportements grégaires et irrationnels, voire haineux, qui n'ont plus rien à voir avec la science. De surcroît, alors que cela devait être au Savoir de régner sur le Pouvoir, c'est désormais le Pouvoir qui décide de ce qui est ou n'est pas le Savoir, comme au plus pur temps du Lyssenkisme où les apparatchiks du Soviet Suprême avaient décidé que la génétique n'était qu'une "science bourgeoise". Si depuis 2019 personne n'a mieux affronté et résisté à ce phénomène monstrueux que le Professeur Didier Raoult, nous faisons le point avec lui pour vous former et vous informer sur la crise scientifique mondiale. Le Professeur Raoult interviendra également en conférence plénière avec Votre Serviteur les 7 et 8 octobre au Québec, à l'occasion de la parution de son autobiographie

If the wealthiest families of the past century spent a reasonable amount of their wealth, invested in the stock market, and paid taxes, there would be thousands of billionaires today. But there aren't. So, what happened? To answer this question, we are joined by authors and finance professionals, Victor Haghani and James White. Their recently released book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, uses the missing billionaires puzzle to explore how and why most investors fail to capture the returns offered by the market. Victor was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the multi-billion-dollar hedge fund that famously collapsed in 1998 and nearly took the global financial markets down with it. His participation in the downfall of LTCM led him to reassess much of the way he thought about investing, and in this episode, he shares some simple but powerful frameworks and personal finance recommendations. We also receive accessible explanations of the Merton model and expected utility theory from James, take a deep dive into dynamic asset allocation, discuss optimal solutions for lifetime spending, and learn more about the certainty equivalent return and Sharpe ratios, plus so much more. Whether you're an entrepreneur invested in your own business or simply focused on building long-term wealth, Victor and James' book (and this conversation about it) will be a valuable resource for better financial decision-making, so be sure to tune in today!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:05:19) The puzzle of the missing billionaires (and why it matters to Victor and James).  (0:09:45) Some common but critical financial decision-making problems most people face.  (0:12:39) Unpacking the coin-flipping experiment in their ‘What's Past is Not Prologue' paper.  (0:19:57) What investors should aim to maximize when sizing positions in risky assets.  (0:24:22) An example that illustrates how the Merton model relates to bullish bets.  (0:29:04) What the Merton share tells us about dynamic asset allocation if it is or isn't possible to estimate expected equity returns.  (0:35:29) How real expected returns affect optimal risky shares for long-term investors.  (0:37:29) Different ways to forecast volatility to determine the optimal risky share.  (0:42:00) Easy-to-understand definitions of the utility curve and expected utility theory.  (0:50:20) Using the certainty equivalent return and Sharpe ratio to evaluate investments.  (0:57:56) Whether or not options belong in the portfolios of typical retail investors.   (0:59:01) If expected utility is a good model for normative personal finance recommendations. (1:05:16) How Victor's experience with LTCM affected him, both professionally and personally.  (1:09:08) What optimal solutions for lifetime investing and spending look like.   (1:22:22) Questions to ask yourself to work out your own utility function and risk aversion. (1:28:19) Victor and James' parting financial advice and respective definitions of success.  Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-270-what-happened-to-all-the-billionaires-with-victor-haghani-and-james-white/25122 Books From Today's Episode: The Missing Billionaires – https://www.amazon.com/Missing-Billionaires/dp/1119747910 Stumbling on Happiness — https://www.amazon.com/Stumbling-Happiness-Daniel-Gilbert/dp/1400077427 The Man Who Solved the Market – https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Solved-Market-Revolution/dp/B07P1NNTSD Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Victor Haghani on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/victorhaghani/ James White on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-white-b4310a47/ Elm Wealth — https://elmwealth.com/ When Genius Failed — https://www.amazon.com/When-Genius-Failed/dp/0375758259/ Where are all the Billionaires?: Victor Haghani at TEDxSPS – https://youtu.be/1yJWABvUXiU ‘What's Past is Not Prologue' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3034686 ‘Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case' – https://www.jstor.org/stable/1926560 ‘Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends' – https://www.jstor.org/stable/2328190 ‘No Place to Hide: Investing in a World With No Risk-Free Asset' – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3903372 ‘Sharpening Sharpe Ratios' – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=325942 ‘A Sharper Lens for Sizing Up Nickels and Steamrollers' – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2874602 ‘Do Options Belong in the Portfolios of Individual Investors?' – https://elmwealth.com/do-options-belong-in-portfolios/  

Welcome to a special retrospective edition of the Alpha Exchange, narrated by yours truly. I'm a big fan of consequential events in market history as they provide a great opportunity to learn about the conditions under which asset prices can become unruly.Are there commonalities in these episodes that might allow us to develop a roadmap for why, how and when they might occur?  From a risk management perspective, what are the key lessons of vol events?In this context, it's difficult not to reflect on the nearly unmanageable unwind of Long Term Capital that occurred 25 years ago. Over the next 50 minutes or so, I set out to take you through some of this important event from my own perspective and along the way bring in insights shared by guests of our podcast. I hope you enjoy it.

Chapter 1 What's the Book Buffett"Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" is a biography written by Roger Lowenstein that explores the life and investment strategies of Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors in history. Published in 1995, the book delves into Buffett's early years, his journey to becoming a billionaire, and his approach to investing. It provides insights into his value investing philosophy, long-term thinking, and his unique ability to identify undervalued companies. The book offers readers a comprehensive understanding of Buffett's life, career, and the principles that guided his remarkable success in the world of finance.Chapter 2 Is the Book Buffett Worth ReadThe book "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" by Roger Lowenstein is a highly regarded biography on the life and investing principles of Warren Buffett. It offers valuable insights into Buffett's investment philosophy, his strategies for success, and his overall approach to business. If you are interested in learning about one of the most successful investors of our time and gaining knowledge about value investing, then this book is definitely worth considering. It provides a comprehensive understanding of Warren Buffett's journey and the factors that contributed to his remarkable achievements. However, it's important to note that reading any book ultimately depends on personal preference and interests. If you have no interest in finance or investing, this book may not resonate with you as much. But if you are intrigued by the world of investing and want to learn from one of the best, "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" is a recommended read.Chapter 3 Buffett SummaryBuffett: The Making of an American Capitalist is a remarkable biography that explores the life and achievements of one of the world's most renowned investors, Warren Buffett. This article delves into the captivating story documented in the book, shedding light on the fascinating journey that shaped Buffett into the legendary financier he is today. From his humble beginnings to his groundbreaking investment strategies, we uncover the key milestones and insights that have made Buffett an icon in the realm of finance. Join us as we unravel the secrets behind the making of this extraordinary American capitalist.Chapter 4 Buffett AuthorRoger Lowenstein is an American financial journalist and author. He has written several books on finance and investing, including "When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management" and "The End of Wall Street." Lowenstein is known for his ability to explain complex financial concepts in a clear and engaging manner. In "When Genius Failed," Lowenstein provides a detailed account of the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in the late 1990s. He delves into the risky investment strategies employed by LTCM and how they ultimately led to its downfall. The book offers valuable insights into the dangers of excessive risk-taking and the interconnectedness of the global financial system. "The End of Wall Street" examines the causes and consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. Lowenstein analyzes the housing bubble, the practices of mortgage lenders, the role of rating agencies, and the failures of regulatory oversight that contributed to the crisis. He explores the aftermath of the crisis and raises important questions about the sustainability of the financial industry's practices. Overall, Roger Lowenstein's work provides readers with a deeper

Our latest podcast episode is here, and it's all about exploring the different ways investors make money in the market. From thrilling arbitrage strategies to the art of short-term trading, we'll cover it all in a language that even your neighbour's fish could understand (well, almost!). But that's not all—our experts will take you on a journey through long-term fundamental investing and quantitative approaches too. Expect some fascinating stories, like the infamous LTCM blow-up, and how best investors (& trades) made their fortunes. We'll also unravel the logic behind the elusive VC's hunt for 50x returns and how even "value stocks" need a dash of momentum. So, whether you're an investing enthusiast or just curious about the market's mysterious ways, you won't want to miss this one. References 00:38 What do you think about the new all-time high? How do you view different types of investing strategies in the market and how to make money from these strategies? 24:27 The problem with peoples expectations: When I say stock markets do 12%, people expect this to be linear. 27:00 Concept of Expectancy 33:29 Problem in arbitrage is competition, so you need to lever yourself up 38:21 Option volatility trading - sell options expiring in 2 days and make the decay 46:32 When VC wins they need to win huge 49:50 Nifty monthly returns - how do quant strategies do? 56:52 We have just hit all time high. Based on the past data, how long can this good time potentially last? Which one is your favourite investing strategy? Liked the episode? Just tweet to us at @capitalmind_in and let us know. That's all we need to keep going!

In questo episodio Lorenzo Brigatti e Lorenzo Volpi analizzano l'ascesa e la caduta di LTCM, un hedge fund istituito nel 1994 che aveva nel suo team premi nobel per l'economia ed è poi fallito rovinosamente quattro anni dopo, salvato per evitare un collasso dell'intero sistema finanziario.  Cosa possiamo imparare da questa storia?

I like to say that you learn the most in markets by studying the periods when things go horribly wrong. And in this spirit, Alpha Exchange guests are often asked to reflect back on risk events of great consequence. 2023 marks the 25th anniversary of the LTCM fiasco, an event too long ago to matter for anyone under the age of 40, even as there are valuable lessons to be had from this giant portfolio unwind. As we look back on this vol event from 1998, it was a pleasure to welcome Nicholas Dunbar, author of “Inventing Money: The Story of Long Term Capital”, to the podcast. With a background in math and physics and with a long stint at Risk Magazine, Nick was well equipped to explain how the effort to conquer markets through the science of derivatives ultimately failed. Along the way, he provides a brief history of how option theory has developed, brings to life key players in the story and dives in to technical details of LTCM's trades. We learn about the dangers of models, leverage, hubris and crowding all at once.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Nick Dunbar.

Los 16 miembros de la junta directiva de Long Term Capital Management tenían de media el coeficiente intelectual más alto que la directiva de cualquier compañía de Estados Unidos durante los años noventa, incluyendo a empresas como Microsoft o Apple.Los 16 miembros de la junta directiva de Long Term Capital Management sumaban entre todos casi 400 años de experiencia financiera.Las valoraciones parecen sacadas de los highlights vacíos de las crónicas de los estrenos de cine de la semana. Pero son las ocurrencias de un tal Warren Buffett sobre la quiebra del mayor hedge fund de los noventa, que llegó a reunir a Liga de Las Mentes Extraordinarias. Las declaraciones las suelta en un discurso en la Escuela de Negocios de la Universidad de Florida en 1998.Dos premios Nobel de Economía, profesores de Harvard, Stanford y el MIT. Matemáticos y un vicepresidente de la Reserva Federal. Eran como Los Vengadores de las finanzas; como el PSG coleccionando cromos, pero ganando copas de Europa. Eran como juntar en un estudio a los Beatles, los Rolling Stones y Led Zeppelin, y a ver qué salía. Eran el Dream Team de Estados Unidos, el de verdad, el de Barcelona 92. Genios. Putos genios en lo suyo, perfectamente engranados, para ser una máquina de hacer dinero. Y todos bajo la batuta John Meriwether, un inversor más conocido que Gordon Gekko, pero con flequillo rebelde.No conviene hacer coñas con John Meriwether, por mucho que el peluquero de Trump empezara a hacer prácticas con su pelo. Era el Michael Jordan de los bonos. Con una sola llamada suya, hundía la deuda de un país soberano o de cualquier empresa. Sobrevivió en aquella Hoguera de la Vanidades que fue Salomon Brothers, los tipos chungos de Wall street durante los 80 y 90. Al mercado de bonos le empezaron a llamar renta fija porque no se movían ni un pelo, sin el consentimiento de los chicos de Salomon. Llámalo chiste malo o licencia periodística, pero Salomon Brothers era el mayor capo financiero de la época y se merecen más de un podcast de historia financiera, y no solo por inspirar la novela de Tom Wolfe, o por empujar a los brazos del periodismo a Michael Lewis, en busca redención. Meriwether era el más listo de la cuadrilla de LTCM, también el que infundía más respeto, y el que más sabía de cómo se movía el dinero a lo grande en Wall Street.JM, por mucho que parezca un malo sacado de la serie Dallas o Dinastía, fue el cerebro y creador de uno de los mayores vehículos de inversión de todos los tiempos. Pero LTCM quebró. Por todo lo alto, con un castañazo de los que hacen época y pasando con capítulos especiales al libro gordo de la Historia de la Finanzas. La verdad sea dicha, antes de hundirse con todo, su nombre ya estaba grabado con letras de oro. El capital inicial, de apenas 1.000 millones de dólares, se había multiplicado por siete, y había llegado a ofrecer rentabilidades anualizadas del 40%.Pero quebró, como decíamos, y a lo grande. El golpe todavía resuena, de lo grave que fue, y estuvo a punto de arrastrar a todo el sistema financiero mundial. En 1998, se vivió un 'Momento Lehman'. En ese momento nadie sabía lo que era eso, pero estuvieron al borde de la extinción económica, como pasó 10 años después con Lehman Brothers, al convertirse en el sumidero por donde se podía ir al garate la economía mundial. De hecho, por aquel entonces, la entidad financiera estaba dando los primeros pasos en el negocio de empaquetar hipotecas.La Reserva Federal de Alan Greenspan, el tipo de la exuberancia irracional de los mercados, y el banquero central con más hora de vuelo a los mandos de la nave de la política monetaria, tuvo que intervenir en plan bombero, orquestando una inyección de 3.500 millones de dólares, para liquidar el fondo de manera organizada. Una limosna, comoparado con los 700.000 millones movilizados por Estados Unidos en el macro rescate bancario de 2008, pero eran otros tiempos y a Greenspan se le puede criticar muchas cosas, pero, en esta ocasión, logró que el contribuyente no pusiera ni medio dólar y que la loca fiesta de las bolsas continuara hasta la siguiente crisis.

LEONES CONTRA GACELAS – PARTE 2 – APRENDAMOS DE LOS ERRORES LEONES CONTRA GACELAS de José Luis CárpatosEn la segunda parte hace un repaso a algunos de los más famosos errores la Historia; el mercado de la plata y los hermanos Hunt, la historia del LTCM, la burbuja de los mares del sur, la quiebra del Banco Barings, etc. UNETE A ESTE CANAL Y ESCUCHA MÁS DE 30 AUDIOLIBROS DE TRADING, NEGOCIOS, ECONOMÍA, CRECIMIENTO PERSONAL Y MÁS ¡GRATIS! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChPrWOE-PStG33VCLAOREag Escúchalos por podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/show/trading-books-los-mejores-libros-de-trad_2 https://open.spotify.com/show/44t0OLA3iXHxdZZxO5rAgM Canal de Música Lo-Fi para tu trading: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQOkoOX2xjqMhhe2hsqmdrQ ¡Ahora en Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/audiolibrosdetrading/ ¡SUBSCRIBETE! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChPrWOE-PStG33VCLAOREag Twitter: https://twitter.com/AprendamosTrad #vivirdeltrading #audiolibrosdetrading #trading

Before his FTX cryptocurrency empire collapsed, many of Sam Bankman-Fried's public statements indicated that he made decisions “as though he had no risk aversion,” according to Victor Haghani, the founder and chief investment officer of Elm Partners Management and a co-founder of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund. Haghani joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how Bankman-Fried's tolerance for risk made him highly unusual under the “theory of choice under uncertainty,” and how the causes of FTX's implosion differ from what triggered the failure of LTCM. Haghani also discusses his own approach to assessing risk when investing client assets at Elm Partners. (Note: This episode was recorded in early December, before Bankman-Fried was indicted for his alleged role in FTX's failure.)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Conversaciones difíciles. ¿Momentos Lehman o momento LTCM? Utilities y energía. Abolición de los margin calls. Invasión de Rusia a Ucrania.

 90% des automobilistes se pensent meilleurs conducteurs que la moyenne! Et en bourse c'est la même chose, beaucoup d'investisseurs essayent de battre le marché ... qui n'est autre que la moyenne des investisseurs. Comment identifier cet excès de confiance et comment le combattre ? - Vidéo sur la faillite de LTCM: https://youtu.be/68k6QsJ9GLY - Vidéo sur l'effet Dunning-Kruger: https://youtu.be/19T6nVhBHpo

Welcome to the 100th Episode of the Alpha Exchange.  Here we do a podcast retrospective, looking back at some of the themes and insights shared over the past 4 years. I want to thank you for listening. We've been fortunate to attract a substantial audience of accomplished professionals. And that's really the result of the quality of our guests.  I want to express sincere gratitude to our guests for taking me up on the invite to come on our show.What I've sought to do through these discussions is to make a contribution to our industry's understanding of risk. That, literally is the Alpha that I hope emerges from the Exchange. One way we do this is to look backwards, reviewing consequential periods of market disruption.  There is an old saying, that “history is a foreign country”.  If that is the case, I say that the “history of risk is another planet”. We learn the most by studying the periods when things went horribly wrong. But a human condition and weakness is simply that we forget. Risk management suffers from failure of the imagination. In discussing these events, my hope is to raise the antennae of our listeners, perhaps planting a seed for further investigation or alerting you to a vulnerability previously unappreciated.Over the course of this retrospective episode, we highlight the thought process and perspectives of guests, looking back on crisis events like the '87 crash, the LTCM unwind, the GFC and the Pandemic market disruption.  We cover the Meme stock episode of 2021 and also the crypto crash of 2022 and more.  I hope you enjoy our 100th episode and thank you again for listening.

On this week's show we discuss the ever-changing narratives in the stock market and economy, iron-clad rules of investing, why markets are so confusing right now, a wider bid-ask spread in the housing market, crypto's LTCM moment and much more. Find complete shownotes on our blogs...  Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense  Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor  Like us on Facebook  And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. 

Matt and Nic return for news and deals of the week. In this episode:  Damien Hirst's physical NFT project  Why you need a bridge between the physical and the digital world for certain NFTs  Why physical NFTs provide advantages to collectors and brands Libra/Diem spawns Aptos and Sui Coinbase is under SEC investigation  Pat Toomey criticizes the SEC What is in the bipartisan stablecoin bill?  Squabbles over Voyager's Chapter 11 plan  The UK inches towards recognizing cryptocurrency as property More 3AC shenanigans  How 3AC was and wasn't like LTCM  3AC liquidators will try to force cooperation  Tether reduces their commercial paper holdings  Matt starts a Tether conspiracy  Harmony mulls a post-hack bailout Content mentioned in this episode:  Coin Metrics state of the network 165 Nic on Medium, Redeem-and-retain NFTs are the future of luxury goods FS Vector, Stablecoin Legislation Update  UK Law Commission: Digital Assets Consultation Paper Sponsor notes: Subscribe to the Coin Metrics State of the Network newsletter

On today's show, Michael J. Casey, CoinDesk's Chief Content Officer, takes a look at a history of brilliant failures and what we can learn from them.Read the full story here.This episode was edited & produced by Adrian Blust with original music by Doc Blust & Colin MealeySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As Chief Market Strategist at Jones Trading, Mike O'Rourke spends his time studying price, flows and policy and the complex interaction among these factors. Getting his start in the mid 90's as the tech bubble was gaining momentum and both the Asian Currency crisis and LTCM event would occur, he's gained an appreciation for how impactful flows and crowdedness can be on asset prices in both directions. The study of markets is complicated by agents of price agnostic demand. Here Mike points to the era of activism and transparency among Central Banks in the post GFC era of disinflation. He makes the point that this period of inflation shortfall was likely driven by a 20 year cycle of globalization that has largely ended. In the aftermath is persistently high inflation and far less forward guidance from major Central Banks.Presently, Mike sees the potential for more downside in markets, especially as financial conditions, while off their lows, could need to tighten considerably more in order for the Fed to push inflation lower. In terms of the tail risks on his radar, Mike worries about a multi-year unwind of excess resulting from the stimulus that went into the market in the period after the Pandemic. He also fears a potential showdown between Central Banks and market prices, especially the ECB and the BoJ.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Mike O'Rourke.

LEONES CONTRA GACELAS – PARTE 2 – APRENDAMOS DE LOS ERRORESLEONES CONTRA GACELAS de José Luis CárpatosEn la segunda parte hace un repaso a algunos de los más famosos errores la Historia; el mercado de la plata y los hermanos Hunt, la historia del LTCM, la burbuja de los mares del sur, la quiebra del Banco Barings, etc.

Matt and Nic return for a fiery episode of deals and news. In this episode:  Is miner selling backed up by the on-chain data?  Is Massachusetts open to pro-crypto legislation?  FTX provides credit support to embattled crypto lenders  Why private market transactions do not constitute bailouts in the pejorative sense Was 3 Arrows just a case of too much leverage and bad trades, or was it fraud?  Does the 3AC situation stray into criminal territory?  There were significant harms stemming from the 3AC scheme Kyle's infamous On The Brink appearance and his special request  Did GBTC bring down 3AC?  Are we entering the PvP era of crypto twitter?  The story behind 3AC's yacht  Solend requisitions user funds  Wartime versus peacetime governance in DeFi South Korea puts a travel ban on Terraform labs employees DYDX is leaving Ethereum and moving to their own chain  The relationship between lender balance sheets and GBTC  Is there a case to be made for winding down GBTC? How to think about the GBTC trade today How the 3AC GBTC trade is like LTCM  How to think about the "macro"  Is the 'crypto hedge fund that also does VC' obsolete?  Sponsor notes: Subscribe to the Coin Metrics State of the Network newsletter

Russell Napier is the author of The Solid Ground Newsletter. He began writing the global macro-strategy report in 1995 for CLSA, a capital markets and investment group based in Hong Kong. He forecast what was to become the Asian Economic Crisis and was voted Asia's #1 equity strategist in all of the leading polls at the time. His forecasts were compiled in a book he published last summer, “The Asian Financial Crisis of 1995–1998: Birth of the Age of Death.”  The world is living through a breakdown in the global monetary system. He has advised clients to invest for the outcome versus just living in another business cycle expansion. That's why I subscribe to his newsletter and value his views. He isn't afraid to stand for what he believes in. Learn more about his book in this episode of Upthinking Finance™.  Russell Napier is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:50] Why Russell decided to dissect his analysis in his book [8:22] What it's like to be the guy with the unpopular opinion [11:11] How to understand what was happening in Asia [14:22] Why it's important to understand the underlying conflict [17:14] The importance of studying financial history [20:08] Where the Asian Financial Crisis originated  [22:49] What Russell didn't see coming in his forecasting  [25:48] What is the idea of “The birth of debt?” [31:00] Monetary systems follow a circular trend [33:33] How you would benefit from reading Russell's book [36:56] The currency board system in Argentina [41:33] What's happening next in Russell's world How to understand what was happening in AsiaLet's assume that a government authority is running the Hong Kong peg, linked at a set rate to the US Dollar. If there are lots of buy orders for the currency, it will push the exchange rate up. But let's say it's not allowed to go up, so the government entity must intervene in the stock market. When it intervenes, the government accumulates United States Treasuries on the asset side of the balance sheet.  But people forget to focus on the liability side of the balance sheet. The government has to buy treasuries with newly created Hong Kong money in the form of commercial bank reserves. It's exactly what happens with quantitative easing—assets go up and the central bank's liabilities go up. It is supposed to lead to an economic boom. That's what was happening in Asia.  The assets accumulated by the Asian Central bank were treasuries from someone else's bond market. Some of the banking systems were growing their assets by 30% annually, an unbelievable boom fueled by the exchange rate policy. There was no incentive for anyone to intervene.  Where the Asian Financial Crisis originated It all started with Thailand and then bled to Russia. In the 90s, Korea was one of the biggest exporting countries in the world. When their currency went under, the world was flooded with cheap products from Korea. It played a key role in bankrupting Russia. Brazil was next. It was toward the tail end that it brought down Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).  The Fed slashed interest rates and bailed out LTCM. It sent a message that if anything happened in the markets that would be bad for the American economy, Alan Greenspan would intervene. The reaction of Greenspan transformed the next 20 years. The entire US monetary policy was altered because one hedge fund was in trouble. People were shocked. So they borrowed like crazy.  What Russell...

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by: Roger Lowenstein How to Live on 24 Hours a Day by: Arnold Bennet Burning Chrome by: William Gibson Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy by:  Richard Hanania Virtue Hoarders: The Case against the Professional Managerial Class by: Catherine Liu Mythos: The Greek Myths Retold by: Stephen Fry Heroes: Mortals and Monsters, Quests and Adventures by: Stephen Fry If You Absolutely Must…: a brief guide to writing and selling short-form argumentative nonfiction from a somewhat reluctant professional writer by: Fredrik deBoer Expeditionary Force Book 8: Armageddon by: Craig Alanson

Il probabile default tecnico del debito pubblico della Russia, che potrebbe scattare a partire dal prossimo mese se gli interessi dovuti su vari bond in scadenza saranno pagati in rubli e non in dollari, può scatenare un effetto domino sui mercati e creare una tempesta finanziaria globale?Nel precedente default di Mosca, che risale al 1998, la crisi rischiò davvero di far vacillare Wall Street....LINK UTILI:➡ Canale Telegram: www.t.me/tradetector➡ Sito TraDetector: www.tradetector.com➡ MiFP: www.masterinfinanzapersonale.com➡ AIEP: www.educazionepatrimoniale.it

The still-nascent world of trading derivatives on cryptocurrencies requires more than just expertise in the math of options and trade construction. Pricing relationships can be driven by flows, by changes in sentiment and by regulatory tape bombs. For Ari Pine, Co-Founder of Digital Gamma, adeptness in financial technology is critical as well. Disparate venues, unique margin relationships and economic nuances in products across different exchanges all require a heavy lift with respect to creating a robust risk management infrastructure.Working with his partners at Digital Gamma, Ari is mining the raft of data that is emerging from the 24/7 trading of the many new assets in the digital sphere. Our conversation is part retrospective on the history of risk events. Through our discussions of the Orange County and LTCM debacles in the 1990's, Ari shares lessons imparted by episodes of market volatility and the pitfalls of being overly wed to pricing models.  We spend the balance of time discussing the financial properties of bitcoin – both in the portfolio context and with respect to how its movements help shape the implied volatility surface of options. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ari Pine.

For the last podcast of 2021 we're joined by our good friend and colleague Amilcar Davy, CMAA's Director of Research. Amilcar shares with us the current state of research initiatives, specifically more about the upcoming Finance & Operations Report, and gives us some insight into what is coming next. We follow that up with a few important legislative updates from Melissa related to H-2B visas and the OSHA ETS regarding vaccine and testing requirements for employers. From all of us here at LTCM and CMAA, we wish you and yours a happy, healthy, and safe holiday season. Be safe, be well, and we'll talk to you in the New Year.

Het begon met de Greenspan-put, toen kwam de Bernanke-put, daarna die van Yellen en nu hebben we de Powell-put. Deze term geeft aan dat centrale banken zouden ingrijpen bij een crisis in de financiële markten. Zoals bijvoorbeeld tijdens de beurscrash van 1987, de crisis rond het hedgefonds LTCM in 1998, de kredietcrisis en recent tijdens de coronadip. Nu is de centrale bank er om de economie te redden en niet de beurskoersen. Er is research gedaan op welk moment die put, een term geleend van de optiemarkt, in werking zou treden. Dat zou ergens bij een koersdaling van 15% zijn. Dat is een leuk gegeven, maar onzinnig om daar een precies getal op te plakken. Ik denk dat centrale banken vooral de economie willen redden. En als er een crisis in de economie is, is er ook vaak een crisis op de beurs. Als je de ene redt, zal je ook de ander redden. In het verleden werkte de Powell-put goed. Alleen wordt het iedere keer iets moeilijker om de getroffen maatregelen te normaliseren. En daarom zitten we nu met deze ultralage rentes. Ik zag van de week een oude advertentie van Rabobank met de spaarrentes uit 1982. De rente van een basisspaarrekening werd toen verlaagd van 8,0% naar 7,5%. De inflatie bedroeg toen 6,3%. Dat is niet veel anders dan nu. Maar nu mag je met een beetje vermogen een half procent op je spaarrekening bijbetalen. Beleggers die te veel op deze putoptie leunen moeten wel in de gaten houden dat de situatie dit keer anders is. Ik weet het, dit zijn de gevaarlijkste woorden uit de geschiedenis. Maar dit keer is het echt anders. De Fed heeft nu twee oorlogen te winnen. Dit keer moeten ze niet alleen de groei stimuleren, maar ook de inflatie beteugelen. Volgende week horen we meer, dan is de Fed-rentevergadering. Als we naar de obligatiemarkten kijken, zien we steeds hogere rentes, vooral bij de kortlopende obligaties. In een paar maanden tijd is de rente op tweejarige obligaties van 0,22% naar nu 0,67% opgelopen. De Fed-futures hebben inmiddels een meer dan 100% kans ingeprijst dat er al in juni 2022 een eerste renteverhoging komt. De aandelen die de meeste last gaan krijgen van de monetaire verkrapping zijn de aandelen die nu het populairst zijn. U kent ze wel: de meme-aandelen en technologieaandelen met mooie verhalen en geen winst of omzet. De Powell-put kan de prullenbak in. Mocht er zich een crisis voordoen, dan staat u er alleen voor. Powell staat niet meer klaar om uw hand vast te houden. Het is maar dat u het weet. Over de column van Corné van Zeijl Corné van Zeijl is analist en strateeg bij vermogensbeheerder Actiam en belegt ook privé. Reageer via corne.vanzeijl@actiam.nl. Deze column kun je ook iedere donderdag lezen in het FD.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With a position in rate strategy at Salomon Brothers in the late 1990's, Subadra Rajappa developed an early appreciation for how market risk can be transmitted from one part of the world to the other through the 1997 Asian FX crisis and the LTCM debacle a year later.  Over the course of a career spanning more than 25 years, she's developed a macro framework that is underpinned by an assessment of growth and inflation variables that help drive interest rate fair value models. Derivative market pricing and fund flows also make their way into her framework.  Specifically, Subadra looks at the interest rate vol surface with special attention to the price of out of the money options, and, to track the money, keeps an eye on positioning in futures markets. Our conversation considers key recent events that shape where we are in the monetary policy cycle. In this context, Subadra shares her views on the integrity of market pricing signals amidst the large participation of the Fed in the market.  We also explore inflation and here Subadra points out that while some components of the rise in inflation will be transitory, others, like wages, tend to be more persistent. A vulnerability that results is a the potential of a less market friendly Fed in 2022. Lastly, I solicit Subadra's perspective on the degree of progress in promoting the career growth for women in finance. To this, she sees more attention to recognizing women and hiring them but there remains a lot of work to be done on the retention front. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Subadra Rajappa.

For Jeff deGraaf, financial markets have always been about figuring out who moved the pieces in a chess match and why. Early exposure to the discipline of technical analysis and its focus on prices and probabilities helped Jeff begin to develop a framework that concentrates on finding bets with favorable odds. Our discussion considers the market events that have played a formative role in how Jeff thinks about risk. Particularly influential among the big risk-off events was the LTCM debacle, especially as it illustrated the power of the Fed to bring an end to a de-risking process.A decade after founding Renaissance Macro in 2011, Jeff and his team continue to view the policy response as both inevitable and critical and in this context, we discuss the evolution of the interaction between markets and the Central Bank. Today's much more activist Fed is one example of how historical pricing relationships, while a valuable tool to understand the present, must be interpreted with care. The shifting correlation profile of the Treasury market to various segments of the equity market is a ready example of this change. For Jeff, predicting the future is difficult and time is better spent on the study of price. Here, his process leads him to a lengthy checklist of indicators that allow the market to speak. And while, in his words, the market "fibs often", a wide enough swath of charts across asset classes and geographies is bound to provide clues on where both value and vulnerability are hiding.Lastly, we talk about life on the sell-side and Jeff's perspective on running a client centric business through the pandemic. Here, the take is an optimistic one with Jeff and team deriving value from connecting with clients virtually in order to deliver insights in an efficient manner. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Jeff deGraaf.

Few professionals have the depth of perspective on the many market risk events that were missed by the models as Rick Bookstaber. Trained at MIT where he received a PhD in economics, Rick would become Morgan Stanley's first risk manager in 1984.  There, and also at Salomon brothers, Rick was among the quants on Wall Street that developed early pricing models for interest rate derivatives. In this capacity, he had intimate knowledge of the challenges that complex products created for dealers looking to hedge them.  And related to this, he also had a front row seat to the early debacles of modern markets including the crash in 1987 and the LTCM unwind in 1998.  Across two excellent books, Demon of Our Own Design and End of Theory, Rick explores the characteristics of markets that make them inherently fragile, including the notion of tight coupling.  Here, feedback between trading, price changes and subsequent trading based on the price changes can give rise to instability. Today, Rick is the founder of Fabric RQ, a firm delivering risk management solutions to the RIA community. Among the issues Rick worries about today include SPACs, NFTs and the concentration of richly valued tech stocks in indices like the S&P 500.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my discussion with Rick Bookstaber.

Real Vision Live Replay: Michael Vranos, founder and CEO of Ellington Management Group, has been known as "the most powerful man on Wall Street" and, over the course of his almost 30 years running Ellington, has been able to adapt his firm, generating exceptional risk-adjusted returns through the LTCM crisis in 1998, the GFC in 2008, and most recently the COVID-19 crisis of 2020. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Vranos will share his personal journey; the early lessons he learned from LTCM and how he structured his firm accordingly; his views on leverage, tail risk hedging, and the costs and benefits of illiquid investments; and the current opportunities he is eyeing in financial equities like REITs, structured credit, and loan securitization. Viewers should be aware that this is an interview for pros by pros, and although not inherently actionable for most individual investors, it should be viewed as an unbelievable look behind the curtain of how one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time thinks about markets and the business of running a hedge fund. To go alongside this segment, we've prepared a set of notes for this interview. You can access them here: https://rvtv.io/3gm1vYf For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As contas não fecham, o ser humano não se comporta racionalmente. Eduardo Gianetti e a necessidade de fé. Mudanças que vão acontecer com o 5G e o álbum do Slipknot. The Midas Formula o documentário do LTCM.

Victor Haghani is an ETF investor with one of the most storied resumes as one of the founding partners of the famous Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund, which employed Nobel-Prize winning economists and renowned Wall Street traders until its epic blowup in 1998. His path is rare but not totally unique as even many of the smartest active management minds on Wall Street have either morphed into indexers or use index funds or ETFs for their personal investments. On this episode of Trillions, Eric and Joel speak with Haghani about his days on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers, the culture and mindset of Long-Term Capital Management, and his emerging low-cost ETF advisory business that he started for friends and family but has since expanded. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Victor Haghani is an ETF investor with one of the most storied resumes as one of the founding partners of the famous Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund, which employed Nobel-Prize winning economists and renowned Wall Street traders until its epic blowup in 1998. His path is rare but not totally unique as even many of the smartest active management minds on Wall Street have either morphed into indexers or use index funds or ETFs for their personal investments.  On this episode of Trillions, Eric and Joel speak with Haghani about his days on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers, the culture and mindset of Long-Term Capital Management, and his emerging low-cost ETF advisory business that he started for friends and family but has since expanded. 

Greg Foss has over 30 years experience in high-yield credit trading & capital structure arbitrage. We sit down to discuss: - High yield trading, credit default swaps & Bitcoin as the Anti-Fiat - Why Bitcoin is extremely cheap default insurance & the best asymmetric trade - The wholesale transfer of risk to government  - If the next financial crisis is the last - How there is no other buyer of last resort   - 2008 GFC, The Big Short, QE, TARP, bailouts, LTCM, CBDCs & pension funds - & so much more

Leverage is essentially borrowing money to increase your returns. LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) was a hedge fund started by John Meriwether in the 90's. This fund used leverage as a way to make incredible returns for investors... Until it went bust. Tune in to this episode to learn about the LTCM story and what went wrong. I'll also cover 2 non-financial ways to use leverage in your daily life. Podcast website: Wall Street Vision Investing Podcast Get in touch with Vlad: Wall Street Vision - Contact Disclaimer: This podcast is for entertainment purposes only and should not be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. I may maintain positions in the securities discussed on this podcast. This show is copyrighted by the Wall Street Vision, written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

The story of Long Term Capital Management as told by LTCM partner Eric Rosenfeld. Eric earned a PhD from MIT, then taught at Harvard Business School, then became a trader at Salomon, then was a founding partner of LTCM.Resources:HBS Study on LTCM dividendEric's talk at MIT in 2009Michael Lewis article on LTCMWhen Genius Failed, Roger LowensteinFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail: riskofruinpod@gmail.comWeb: halfkelly.com

Het deed me toch even denken aan 1998 en 2008. Toen stond het financiële systeem onder hoogspanning omdat in 1998 het hedgefonds LTCM omviel, en in 2008 de zakenbank Lehman Brothers. Ook nu is er een hedgefonds omgevallen. En eerder dit jaar ging er al een grote financiële partij, Greensill, kopje onder. Dit keer haalden beleggers hun schouders op, terwijl de schade bij Archegos vier maal zo groot was als bij LTCM in 1998. Wat is het verschil? Waarom raken we nu niet in paniek? Een belangrijke les die we sindsdien hebben geleerd is dat in uiterste nood de centrale banken een reddingsboei toewerpen. Ik maak me alleen een beetje zorgen dat het vertrouwen in de redding van die centrale banken misschien wel te groot is. We springen vol vertrouwen in het water, denkende dat in nood die reddingsboei toch wel komt. Trage reactie Er is wel een aantal belangrijke lessen te trekken. Als eerste: de oude beurswijsheid 'when you panic, panic first, gaat ook bij zakenbanken op. De zakenbanken die het eerste de aandelen van Archegos dumpten, hadden de minste verliezen. Credit Suisse en Nomura reageerden het traagst en zitten met de grootste verliezen opgescheept. Voor de topvrouwendiscussie is het jammer dat Credit Suisse het toonbeeld is van een bank die letterlijk alle risicos verkeerd heeft ingeschat. De bank was betrokken bij het Wirecardschandaal, bij het Greensill-debacle én bij Archegos. En het was nou net Credit Suisse dat als een van de weinige banken een vrouw als risicomanager had. Het slaat in één keer de gevleugelde woorden van mevrouw Lagarde aan stukken. U kent het nog wel: 'als het niet Lehman Brothers maar Lehman Sisters had geheten, was er geen kredietcrisis geweest'. Jammer. Genoeg onderpand Risicoafdelingen zullen hun gezonde verstand moeten gebruiken in plaats van vinkjes te zetten. Er is op zich niets mis met een klant die zijn portefeuille flink heeft gefinancierd, zolang die maar genoeg onderpand heeft. Maar als diezelfde klant bij meerdere banken eenzelfde soort portefeuille heeft, is er toch een concentratierisico. Ook een aandachtspuntje voor toezichthouders. De dominostenen van het financiële stelsel zijn blijven staan. Één steentje, dat van Credit Suisse, is wel flink beschadigd. Wirecard, Greensill en Archegos waren ongelukjes. Ongelukjes zijn goede praktijk-stresstesten en houden je scherp. Als er maar niet te veel ongelukjes achter elkaar komen. Deze drie zijn voorlopig wel even genoeg. Over de column van Corné van Zeijl Corné van Zeijl is analist en strateeg bij vermogensbeheerder Actiam en belegt ook privé. Reageer via corne.vanzeijl@actiam.nl. Deze column kun je ook iedere donderdag lezen in het FD. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Les Européens qui espèrent par procuration, les Américains qui doutent en touchant la Voie lactée, mais surtout parce que le Crédit Suisse n'en finit pas de liquider ses positions liées à Archegos en virant la moitié de son management qui avait oublié le coup du LTCM... quand t'es trop gros, t'es trop gros..

McAlvany Weekly Commentary When “Con”-fidence reigns, credit flows freely for years Implosion occurs the second confidence is lost Physical gold is immune to leveraged, systemic implosion   The McAlvany Weekly Commentary with David McAlvany and Kevin Orrick Remember LTCM, Bear Stearns, Lehman? You’d Better March 30, 2021 “Ultimately, a financial asset that is not on someone else’s list […] The post Remember LTCM, Bear Stearns, Lehman? You Better appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

Bitcoin è un'illusione, un'allucinazione di massa, così si sente. Sono solo numeri nel cyberspazio, un miraggio, inconsistente come una bolla di sapone. Bitcoin non è supportato da nient'altro che dalla fede degli sciocchi che lo comprano e degli sciocchi più grandi che lo comprano da questi sciocchi minori. E tu sai? Giusto. Tutto questo è vero. Ciò che potrebbe essere meno facile da capire è che anche i dollari americani sono un'illusione. Anch'essi consistono principalmente di numeri là fuori nel cyberspazio. A volte sono conservati in carta o monete, ma mentre la carta e le monete sono materiali, i dollari che rappresentano non lo sono. I dollari americani non sono sostenuti da nient'altro che dalla fede degli sciocchi che lo accettano come pagamento e di altri sciocchi che accettano a loro volta di accettarlo come pagamento da loro. La differenza principale è che, almeno per il momento, l'illusione, nel caso dei dollari, è creduta più ampiamente e più ferocemente. In effetti, quasi tutti i nostri dollari USA, circa il 90%, sono puramente astratti: letteralmente non esistono in nessuna forma tangibile. James Surowiecki ha riferito nel 2012 che "solo circa il 10% dell'offerta di moneta statunitense - circa $ 1 trilione dei circa $ 10 trilioni totali - esiste sotto forma di contanti e monete cartacee". (Il numero ora sembra essere di circa $ 1,5 trilioni su $ 13,7 trilioni.) Non c'è nulla che impedisca al nostro sistema bancario di creare più dollari ogni volta che l'umore colpisce. Dei 13,7 trilioni di dollari dell'offerta di moneta M2 a partire da ottobre 2017, 13,5 trilioni di dollari sono stati creati dopo il 1959 o, per dirla in altro modo, M2 si è espanso di quasi 50 volte. Il dollaro USA è ciò che è noto come valuta "fiat". Fiat è latino per "sia", come in fiat lux , lascia che ci sia luce; quindi, fiat denarii , siano lire, bolivar, dollari e rubli. La tentazione per i leader degli stati-nazione di fabbricare denaro è stata storicamente praticamente irresistibile. Un risultato evidente di questa sfrenatezza è l'inflazione: il potere d'acquisto di $ 1 nel 1959 è ora di poco inferiore a 12 centesimi. La blockchain di bitcoin è stata creata, in parte, per affrontare questa debolezza storica. Dopo che il 21 milionesimo bitcoin è stato estratto, intorno al 2140, il sistema non ne produrrà più. Ciarlatani e ladri cercheranno per sempre di ingannare le varie strutture messe in atto per controllare e / o rendere conto di qualsiasi sistema monetario e, in effetti, di qualsiasi riserva di valore (vedi: i truffatori dei Panama e Paradise Papers, Bernies Cornfeld e Madoff, il London Whale, LTCM e BCCI, gli intelligenti e silenziosi ladri di tesori del Gardner Museum di Boston, la crisi finanziaria del 2008 e i relativi salvataggi e i furti a Mt. Gox, DAO e Tether). Tutte le riserve di valore sono obiettivi. E usando qualsiasi sistema di scambio - con mezzi equi o sbagliati - le fortune possono e saranno fatte e perse. Eppure, per quanto a volte possa sembrare sorprendente, ci sono abbastanza persone che agiscono in buona fede per evitare che i sistemi monetari crollino completamente. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/bitcoin-informa/support

Bitcoin è un'illusione, un'allucinazione di massa, così si sente. Sono solo numeri nel cyberspazio, un miraggio, inconsistente come una bolla di sapone. Bitcoin non è supportato da nient'altro che dalla fede degli sciocchi che lo comprano e degli sciocchi più grandi che lo comprano da questi sciocchi minori. E tu sai? Giusto. Tutto questo è vero.Ciò che potrebbe essere meno facile da capire è che anche i dollari americani sono un'illusione. Anch'essi consistono principalmente di numeri là fuori nel cyberspazio. A volte sono conservati in carta o monete, ma mentre la carta e le monete sono materiali, i dollari che rappresentano non lo sono. I dollari americani non sono sostenuti da nient'altro che dalla fede degli sciocchi che lo accettano come pagamento e di altri sciocchi che accettano a loro volta di accettarlo come pagamento da loro. La differenza principale è che, almeno per il momento, l'illusione, nel caso dei dollari, è creduta più ampiamente e più ferocemente.In effetti, quasi tutti i nostri dollari USA, circa il 90%, sono puramente astratti: letteralmente non esistono in nessuna forma tangibile. James Surowiecki ha riferito nel 2012 che "solo circa il 10% dell'offerta di moneta statunitense - circa $ 1 trilione dei circa $ 10 trilioni totali - esiste sotto forma di contanti e monete cartacee". (Il numero ora sembra essere di circa $ 1,5 trilioni su $ 13,7 trilioni.) Non c'è nulla che impedisca al nostro sistema bancario di creare più dollari ogni volta che l'umore colpisce. Dei 13,7 trilioni di dollari dell'offerta di moneta M2 a partire da ottobre 2017, 13,5 trilioni di dollari sono stati creati dopo il 1959 o, per dirla in altro modo, M2 si è espanso di quasi 50 volte.Il dollaro USA è ciò che è noto come valuta "fiat". Fiat è latino per "sia", come in fiat lux , lascia che ci sia luce; quindi, fiat denarii , siano lire, bolivar, dollari e rubli. La tentazione per i leader degli stati-nazione di fabbricare denaro è stata storicamente praticamente irresistibile. Un risultato evidente di questa sfrenatezza è l'inflazione: il potere d'acquisto di $ 1 nel 1959 è ora di poco inferiore a 12 centesimi.La blockchain di bitcoin è stata creata, in parte, per affrontare questa debolezza storica. Dopo che il 21 milionesimo bitcoin è stato estratto, intorno al 2140, il sistema non ne produrrà più.Ciarlatani e ladri cercheranno per sempre di ingannare le varie strutture messe in atto per controllare e / o rendere conto di qualsiasi sistema monetario e, in effetti, di qualsiasi riserva di valore (vedi: i truffatori dei Panama e Paradise Papers, Bernies Cornfeld e Madoff, il London Whale, LTCM e BCCI, gli intelligenti e silenziosi ladri di tesori del Gardner Museum di Boston, la crisi finanziaria del 2008 e i relativi salvataggi e i furti a Mt. Gox, DAO e Tether). Tutte le riserve di valore sono obiettivi. E usando qualsiasi sistema di scambio - con mezzi equi o sbagliati - le fortune possono e saranno fatte e perse. Eppure, per quanto a volte possa sembrare sorprendente, ci sono abbastanza persone che agiscono in buona fede per evitare che i sistemi monetari crollino completamente.--- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/appSupport this podcast: https://anchor.fm/bitcoin-informa/support

“I think there are a lot of people who feel a genuine frustration at how the system has behaved, and more importantly about how there has been this dynamic of privatized gains and socialised losses. The way I would resolve it is, you know that’s wrong. And yet it seems that the models or the tools that are being used give us no option to that. And at the core, what that’s telling you is that the models are a mistake…” Mike Green In this podcast, Mike Green and I discussed political philosophy. Well, I fumbled around trying to articulate my frustrations, objections and questions and Mike managed to read between the lines and carry the show. By way of background, I’ve been frustrated with a few things since the late 1990s. Most of my frustrations relate to how regulators, governments and central banks have repeatedly undermined the capitalist process of creative destruction by bailing out imprudent risk-takers. We got a taste of this in 1998 when the Fed bailed on LTCM, and a belly-full of it in 2008 when they changed the rules on mark-to-market accounting and bailed out the banking sector. Since then central banks have supported asset prices at every turn, with increasingly direct intervention, culminating in direct purchases of corporate credit in March of 2020. For the most part, Mike and I are frustrated about the same things: regulatory capture and a fundamental misalignment of political power and incentives, the compound effect of which is responsible for most of the forces that are tearing America apart from within. However, where my experience has festered and soured, Mike has been diagnosing the problems and seeking solutions. Viewed through the prism of Mike’s philosophical framework, our current situation is a function of decades of policy choices rooted in a misguided faith in Calvanist meritocracy, amplified by a fundamental misapprehension that goes to the very heart of economics. These themes converge as we explore: How treating the economy as an ergodic system inevitably leads to accelerating boom-bust dynamics How central bank policy is largely motivated by a policy choice that has placed the social safety net in the hands of the corporate sector Why a policy of offering guaranteed, non-dischargeable loans to children to pay for higher education is criminally irresponsible, and creates a cascade of corrupt signaling mechanisms and mal-incentives, with obscene repercussions MMT, the Kalecki equation and how policy can be structured to narrow the wealth gap Ergodicity economics, the Farmer’s Fable, and the myth of meritocracy The importance of the Fourth Turning as a time to dismantle corrupt institutions and rebuild in a new image Disentangling skill from luck, and designing a redistribution policy that socializes windfall gains to support distributed entrepreneurship and economic dynamism Creating a system of accounting that recognizes non-monetary contributions and externalities How citizens will think about taxes in a modern monetary world, and whether taxes have only ever been paid at the business end of a gun Whether we can move past the Fourth Turning without a major catalyst, what that catalyst might look like, and how to look across the chasm with optimism about the future This is a two-hour podcast, and I apologize in advance for meandering questions and the occasional non-sequitur. Still, this was a deeply important conversation, and I think it’s worth your time. I think many of us who think about the state of the world know that something is very wrong. Many of us have worked to bury these frustrations and work within the game and the rules as they are. But at root we are mostly checked out. Mike makes the case that the system is broken, but it can be fixed. And he expresses an incredibly coherent framework for a system of values, principles, and policies that just might work. I came away feeling almost hopeful. And I think some of you might too. “Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” Francisco d'Anconia, Atlas Shrugged      

In today's podcast Patrick Boyle interviews Victor Haghani, former Long Term Capital Management Partner about Salomon Brothers in the days of Liars Poker, What it was like working at LTCM, different approaches to investing, short squeezes, arbitrage and how Victor invests today. We talk briefly about the GameStop short squeeze, Melvin Capital and why Steve Cohen and Citadel might have invested more money.Victor has spent more than 40 years in the world of finance, from the London School of Economics to Salomon Brothers to LTCM and finally to Elm Partners, Victor has a wealth of knowledge to share about indexing, value investing, momentum risk management and international diversification.Subscribe to Victors mailing list: https://elmfunds.com/blog/Victor's Ted Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yJWABvUXiU&t=26sBooks Mentioned in the video: Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis: https://amzn.to/3asrt7NWhen Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein: https://amzn.to/3pKOrxjInside The Yield Curve by Martin Leibowitz :https://amzn.to/2NVkaxHTriumph of The Optimists by Elroy Dimson: https://amzn.to/2LcixL5 Patrick's Books:Statistics for The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleSupport the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)

Hij bedoelde dat je beter de WhatsApp-concurrent Signal kunt gebruiken. Het beursgenoteerde Signal Advance is echter een medisch bedrijf zonder fulltime medewerkers. Nu zou iedereen zo langzamerhand toch wel moeten weten wat Musk bedoelde. Maar de koers van Signal Advance staat nog steeds 861 procent hoger dan voor de tweet. De verklaring hiervoor zit in een standaard denkfout, genaamd loss aversion. Men haat het om met verlies te verkopen. Beleggingsverlies Als je het beleggingsverlies realiseert is dat een bevestiging dat je iets stoms hebt gedaan. En dat wil het ego te allen tijde vermijden. Hetzelfde geldt voor de huidige bezitters van aandelen Gamestop. De fundamentele waarde van het bedrijf is waarschijnlijk een stuk lager dan de huidige beurskoers. De koers ging alleen maar omhoog doordat de Reddit-meute het met zn allen kocht en in de hoop dat shorters het op een hoger niveau moesten kopen. Luister terug | Corné van Zeijl | Trumps economisch rapportcijfer Dat aanvalsplan heeft gewerkt, maar het is nu klaar. De meeste shorters hebben hun verlies genomen. Als je nu nog Gamestop-aandelen in portefeuille hebt, is dat waarschijnlijk aan het fenomeen loss aversion te wijten. Fed-lid Neel Kaskhari zei afgelopen week dat het verlies van deze speculanten hun eigen schuld is en dat de Fed ze niet zal redden. Een terechte opmerking. Je wilt als centrale bank immers niet uitstralen dat je alle stommiteiten van speculanten opvangt. Dat verstoort de risico perceptie. Huizenbubbel Maar laten we wel wezen, dat klopt niet helemaal. In het verleden heeft de Fed vaak genoeg ingegrepen om de gevolgen van een gebarsten bubbel op te vangen. De Fed stapte in de markt bij het omvallen van hedgefonds LTCM in 1998 en het knappen van de huizenbubbel in 2008. Echter: in beide voorbeelden zouden de economische effecten zonder de hulp van de Fed vrij dramatisch zijn geweest. Bij de Gamestop-bubbel zijn de slachtoffers slechts wat kleine beleggers. Luister terug | Corné van Zeijl | Hoeksteenbeleggers bieden de helpende hand Bovendien heeft de Reddit-gemeenschap er per saldo wel geld aan verdiend. De grote hedgefondsen, zoals Citron Research en Melvin Capital, hebben hun verlies moeten nemen. Dit verlies is de winst voor de Reddit-meute. Alleen de groep met Reddit-speculanten die in de laatste golf meededen is flink het schip in gegaan. Zij hadden beter moeten luisteren naar de oude tegeltjeswijsheid 'zij die achter de kudde aanlopen, lopen altijd door de stront'. Over de column van Corné van Zeijl Corné van Zeijl is analist en strateeg bij vermogensbeheerder Actiam en belegt ook privé. Reageer via corne.vanzeijl@actiam.nl. Deze column kun je ook iedere vrijdag lezen in het FD. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Famed economist Jim Rickards sits down with Alex Moazed to discuss Chinese currency geopolitics, investing in gold, whether he's a bitcoin bull or bear, and how the global pandemic affected the economic analysis in his most recent book "THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World". Read THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World: https://www.amazon.com/New-Great-Depr... Originally Aired: 01/15/20 00:00 - Subscribe for Tech & Business News Daily 00:18 - Rickards Introduction 03:58 - The New Great Depression 11:42 - Currency Wars 14:34 - Pentagon's Financial War Game 16:55 - Chinese Money Printing 22:23 - Chinese Yuan a Global Reserve Currency? 25:34 - Confidence and Stimulus 35:34 - How to Invest During The New Great Depression 38:43 - Rickards Thoughts on Bitcoin James Rickards is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a financial newsletter. He is The New York Times bestselling author of The New Great Depression (2020), Aftermath (2019), The Road to Ruin (2016), The New Case for Gold (2016), The Death of Money (2014), and Currency Wars (2011) from Penguin Random House. He is an investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates. He is an op-ed contributor to the Financial Times, Evening Standard, The Telegraph, New York Times, and Washington Post, and has been interviewed by BBC, CNN, NPR, CSPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Rickards is a guest lecturer in globalization and finance at The Johns Hopkins University, Georgetown University, Trinity College Dublin, The Kellogg School at Northwestern, the U.S. Army War College and the School of Advanced International Studies. He has presented papers on risk at Singularity University, the Applied Physics Laboratory, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He is an advisor on capital markets to the U.S. intelligence community, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and is on the Advisory Board of the FDD Center on Economic and Financial Power in Washington DC. Mr. Rickards holds an LL.M. (Taxation) from the NYU School of Law; a J.D. from the University of Pennsylvania Law School; an M.A. in international economics from SAIS, and a B.A. (with honors) from Johns Hopkins. He lives in New Hampshire.

If you want to know anything in the world of geopolitics and economics then Jim Rickards is your guy! He knows what he's talking about. Why? Because gets been there done that; he helped negotiate the Fed bailout of LTCM in the late '90s, he regularly consults with the CIA and other government agencies...people in positions of power want his inputs and he shares some of that experience with me as we discuss his soon-to-be published 6th book, "The New Great Depression". A book about the pandemic and how it has ravaged the US (and global) economy and what are some things you can do moving forward to take advantage of the opportunities that every crisis brings about. A great discussion about the lasting effects of the policies put in place during these unprecedented times. Enjoy! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) thought they had the market all figured out - oops. Jason Hartman reminds you all to invest in something that makes sense the day you buy it; market timing is for the fools. We are looking at record-low interest rates again (mortgage rates)! It's time to invest! Investment counselor Adam returns for part two on their discussion of the doom and gloom, will we see another great recession? Even if we do see another great recession, understanding IDEAL can help set you up for comfort.  Jason Hartman's Quick Start Podcast Key Takeaways: [1:30] If market timing were possible, wouldn't it be done? [4:00] Real Estate is getting cheaper!  [11:00] In March 2020, Jason said, "don't invest" - today (December 2020), "DO IT!" Adam [12:00] What is the government? [15:00] When is all of this Doom & Gloom going to come true? [17:00] What if it's another great recession right now? [25:30] Let's compare income property with the value investing philosophy of Warren Buffet.  [27:00] Understanding IDEAL [33:00] "we'll just put the tool back in the toolbox, and everything will be ok.".. or not! Websites: jasonhartman.com/protect JasonHartman.com JasonHartman.com/properties Jason Hartman Quick Start Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn) Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes) 1-800-HARTMAN

Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Furious Friday edition, where we will continue to look at some derivative disasters. Last week – went through some of the basics – and a few Australian specific examples - In todays episode – want to look at the Long Term Capital Management crash in the late 1990s Similar to some of the cases last week – wouldn’t be surprised if you haven’t heard of this – but it had the potential to spark a larger crisis – The story is very similar to the GFC- almost like a mini-or pre GFC – and an event that likely created the moral hazard that lead to the GFC - so what happened Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) – they were a major US hedge fund – used absolute return trading strategies Now - hedge funds are normally defined as absolute returns funds – as the name sort of indicates – they aim to get absolute (or positive) returns over a rolling period regardless of market conditions – So a traditional asset managers or long only fund tried to outperform a benchmark or index year on year – which can result in a loss – but if the ASX or S&P500 are down by 20% and the traditional manager is down by 15% - done their job However – an absolute return manager would want to get a positive return in this year Hence- hedge fund managers employ different strategies in order to produce a positive return regardless of the direction of asset markets. To do this – they can use a range of strategies - like short selling, or using leverage and high turnover in their portfolios – but also – using derivatives to hedge their positions – but also – to trade traditionally boring (low loss potential assets) like bonds using derivatives Long Term Capital Management was run by some pretty big players – Launched in 1994 by former Salomon Brothers bond trader John Meriwether Salomon brothers was famous from the early days – if anyone has seen and remembers the big short movie – the individual who pioneered MBS was from Salomon Brothers – Lewis Ranieri John Meriwether headed Salomon Brothers' bond arbitrage desk until he resigned in 1991 amid a trading scandal. According to Chi-fu Huang, later a Principal at LTCM, the bond arbitrage group was responsible for 80–100% of Salomon's global total earnings from the late 1980s until the early 1990s LTCM was also run by PhD holders, two Nobel Prize winners on their works in option pricing models and a plethora of finance veterans One of the PhDs was Myron Scholes – the Black Scholes pricing model is the gold standard used when pricing especially European option – that’s contract that limits execution to its expiration date – as opposed to American which can be executed at any time prior to maturity trades were conducted through a partnership with Bear Stearns and client relations were handled by Merrill Lynch – so it had very little overhead They launched a bond trading hedge fund using option pricing – and they did very well initially – from their launch they had $1.25 billion under management This quickly grew to $100bn in just under 3 years – they were attracting massive inflows due to their annual returns - return of over 21% (after fees) in its first year, 43% in the second year and 41% in the third year Given the strategy was promoted as being absolute return – low risk/high reward form using bonds of all things – gained a lot of attention   The trading strategy – put simply – it was to buy or sell bonds when prices deviated from the norm using borrowed funds and additional leverage - often in the form of derivatives - then wait for prices to converge again to make a profit  known as involving convergence trading – official definition is to “use quantitative models to exploit deviations from fair value in the relationships between liquid securities across nations and asset classes” The type of investments were on US Treasuries, Japanese, UK and Italian Government Bonds, and Latin American debt, although their activities were not confined to these markets or to government bonds – which we will come back to At the core – this strategy is known as fixed income arbitrage – How this works - Fixed income securities pay a set of coupons at specified dates in the future –a bond can pay semi-annual or annual coupons to the debt holders – they also have a defined redemption payment at maturity – normally the Face value of a bond Since bonds of similar maturities and credit quality (or risk of default) can be seen as close substitutes to one another – there tends to be a close relationship between their prices (and yields) Think about Australian bonds issued – all with FVs of $100 – if the coupons on these are the same at $3 p.a. – so they should all be priced in similar manners – assuming their maturity dates are the same – however – if their maturities are different or they pay different coupons – relative to the interest rate their prices will be different But – depending on the liquidity of the market – or how easily you can sell the bond – these same or similar bonds can have different prices – as well as having slightly different maturities – therefore you can make an additional premium returns for little to no risk – Example - LTCM strategies was to purchase the old benchmark – now a 29.75-year bond, and which no longer had a significant premium – and to sell short the newly issued benchmark 30-year, which traded at a premium - Over time the valuations of the two bonds would tend to converge as the richness of the benchmark faded once a new benchmark was issued Sounds smart – but due to the size in the difference in prices (which was tiny) – not much profit to be made – But that is where leverage and derivative positions came into the picture – to amplify the returns - LTCM used leverage to create a portfolio that was a significant multiple (varying over time depending on their portfolio composition) of investors' equity in the fund also necessary to access the financing market in order to borrow the securities that they had sold short – makes them dependent on the willingness of its counterparties in the government bond (repo) market to continue to finance their portfolio Using this strategy - if the company was unable to extend its financing agreements, then it would be forced to sell the securities it owned and to buy back the securities it was short on at market prices, regardless of whether these were favourable from a valuation perspective This is the next part of the strategy that that was highly risky in hindsight – wouldn’t think so trading bonds – but when you had counter party risks on bonds – it can be if a shock to debt markets occurs By 1996 – started to branch out into riskier asset classes – like Latin American markets – Was due to limited trading opportunities – as they already had massive positions on the assets and others started to copy their trading strategies - as the magnitude of anomalies in market pricing diminished over time This was also due to LTCM growing to be a large portion of illiquid markets that there was no diversity in the buyers in them – only had a few large investment banks and managers who joined in on this trading strategy – so some crowding out was going on – started to reduce the functionality of the markets and it was impossible to determine a price for its assets – which was the whole point of their trading strategies – to fund arbitrate in mispriced assets based around their liquidity and maturity In 1997 – a year in which it earned 27%, LTCM returned capital to investors – about $2.7bn By 1998 - the firm had equity of $4.7 billion and had borrowed over $124.5 billion - debt-to-equity ratio of over 25 to 1 – put them in a risky position – as it wouldn’t take much in the way of a loss for them to wipe out all of the equity they had However – in addition to this leverage position - It had off-balance sheet derivative positions with a notional value of approximately $1.25 trillion - most of which were in interest rate derivatives such as interest rate swaps to hedge against their arbitrage trading going wrong Derivatives like interest rate swaps were originally developed for the purpose of allowing firms to manage risks on exchange rates and interest rate movements – similar to what we saw last Friday – they also allowed speculation on a massive scale The downfall – in 1997 - Asian crisis was playing out – which spread out into most asset markets by 1998 Although this crisis had originated in Asia, its effects were not confined to that region – created a rise in risk aversion and raised concerns amongst investors regarding all markets heavily dependent on international capital flows – such as bond markets – LTCM started to lose some money - In May and June 1998 returns from the fund were -6.42% and -10.14% respectively, reducing LTCM's capital by $461 million Then these losses started to snowball by August 1998 - when Russia defaulted on its domestic rouble-based debt - leading global markets to panic and causing LTCM to lose US$553 million, or 15% of its capital in a day In one month, it lost almost US$2 billion in capital - to maintain the magnitude of its existing portfolio, LTCM was forced to liquidate a number of its positions at a highly unfavourable moment and suffer further losses LTCM only had $400 million of equity by September 1998 – but with liabilities still over $100 billion, this translated to an effective leverage ratio of more than 250-to-1 However, the bigger problem occurred from a systematic risk point of view, as unfortunately for the markets and the US banking system, LTCM had such large positions in its trading books that it was impossible to sell out. In only a few weeks, LTCM was facing over US$1 trillion in notional derivative default risks. Takes time to unwind derivative positions – time they didn’t have This was now a problem of the global economy – due to the other banks that were the counter parties to these derivative swaps LTCM did business with nearly every important person on Wall Street – beyond their own funds being lost - Wall Street feared that LTCMs failure could cause a chain reaction in numerous markets, causing catastrophic losses throughout the financial system – Central banks had two responses as events moved quickly – First - with the Chair of the Federal Reserve moving to aggressively to use monetary policy by cutting US interest rates – where previously they were going to raise them – followed by over 60 national central banks which also cut rates in short order to avoid LTCM’s crisis turning into a global financial crisis and pushing the world economy into depression Second - LTCM had to be bailed out to the tune of $3.625 billion after it lost staggering sums through its bad bets in global bond markets The contributions from the reserves were facilitated from various major banks - Most major banks put in $300 million: Bankers Trust, Barclays, Chase, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS Few others with smaller amount of $125 and $100 million Interestingly – two of the 3 banks – who declined were US banks – those were Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers – we all saw how the banks and the Fed reciprocated this in 2008 – only banks to not get the generous arm of the Fed – the other bank was a French bank Summary LTCM’s demise was an example of the failure of a hedge fund and a classic example of the failure of ‘genius’ – having very smart people (Nobel Prize winners) in theory behind the wheel can still go horribly wrong in practicality   The borrowing level of leverage allowed – 250 to 1 is bad enough – but the $1.25 trillion in notional derivative values when the company had $400m in equity should point to why something like the GFC could have happened Which by this point was a decade away – but these very banks that needed to provide some of the funds are myopic or – they saw that a bail out would happen if they got it wrong and instead – only saw the massive potential for profits – The vital lesson is that no single institution (and certainly no private sector investor such as a hedge fund) should be so important as to be not ‘allowed’ to fail and require bailouts from taxpayers or depositors These sorts of situations indirectly leads to the additional dangers in the financial markets through the moral hazard encouraged – where these companies are now assuming that they are implicitly ‘insured’ by Reserve Banks or the public – hence they have become ‘too big to fail’ So a global financial crisis was averted in 1998, but arguably it was only postponed for a later date   Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/

Who is "Pankaj Jain" besides being the founder of Invest Stream and Founder Craft What came before? I've been a risk manager at the largest hedge fund in the world, LTCM, operator, product manager, entrepreneur, community builder at BarCamp Delhi, co-founder of HeadStart Network Foundation and Startup Weekend India. I've been a venture capitalist at TLabs and 500 Startups, advisor to startups, funds and platforms like AngelList India and most recently, a dabbler in startup and venture capital related video content. My friend and former colleague, Ritesh Bansal, suggested interviewing me on the show to bring out more about who I am and what my journey has been. Naturally, I couldn't refuse an invitation to be on my show so get ready for a frank and open discussion between an old friend and I. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/pjain/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/pjain/support

Who is "Pankaj Jain" besides being the founder of Invest Stream and Founder Craft What came before? I've been a risk manager at the largest hedge fund in the world, LTCM, operator, product manager, entrepreneur, community builder at BarCamp Delhi, co-founder of HeadStart Network Foundation and Startup Weekend India. I've been a venture capitalist at TLabs and 500 Startups, advisor to startups, funds and platforms like AngelList India and most recently, a dabbler in startup and venture capital related video content. My friend and former colleague, Ritesh Bansal, suggested interviewing me on the show to bring out more about who I am and what my journey has been. Naturally, I couldn't refuse an invitation to be on my show so get ready for a frank and open discussion between an old friend and I. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/pjain/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/pjain/support

Who is "Pankaj Jain" besides being the founder of Invest Stream and Founder Craft What came before? I've been a risk manager at the largest hedge fund in the world, LTCM, operator, product manager, entrepreneur, community builder at BarCamp Delhi, co-founder of HeadStart Network Foundation and Startup Weekend India. I've been a venture capitalist at TLabs and 500 Startups, advisor to startups, funds and platforms like AngelList India and most recently, a dabbler in startup and venture capital related video content. My friend and former colleague, Ritesh Bansal, suggested interviewing me on the show to bring out more about who I am and what my journey has been. Naturally, I couldn't refuse an invitation to be on my show so get ready for a frank and open discussion between an old friend and I. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/pjain/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/pjain/support

Join me and Sandra Navidi for an impactful conversation about the Power of the Financial Elite, Networking in the Financial Industry, and How Networks can make – but also potentially break the global Financial System. In her Book ‘SuperHubs, How the Financial Elite and their Networks rule OUR world', Sandra shows the benefits but also the systemic risks of networking amongst powerful individuals. People with the highest number of contacts, will attract more connections, power and also financial means. They are called SuperHubs. In our globalized world, interconnectedness is an inherent component of the financial system and indispensable for the exchange of goods and services. To scale the benefits of this global reach, top executives build an ever-higher number of interlinkages. As the network grows, it becomes more complex and harder to control. At some point this has a destabilizing effect, especially as ‘Power Brokers' are reluctant to keep lucrative activities ‘balanced' to keep the entire system stable. Failing that, inequality will sky rocket even more. Sandra sees SuperHubs like President Trump only adding to that imbalance. People like Richard Fuld (CEO of Lehman Bros), Mike Miklen (Junk Bond King), John Meriwether (Founder of LTCM) were all SuperHubs, ‘playing the system' too hard and pushing it over the edge. These individuals became a systemic risk for the global Financial Industry pushing economies into deep economic crisis. What's the solution? Sandra uses a quote by Albert Einstein: ‘we don't need to think more BUT think DIFFERENTLY!' Website: http://www.beyond-global.com/cgi-bin/firm.pl Sandra Navidi: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandra_Navidi Mentorit.TV YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCr99x90I6bY-VWW6csFajTA Mentorit.TV E-Mail: info@Mentorit.TV Website: http://www.principle.ch/#company - Road Trip by Joakim Karud https://soundcloud.com/joakimkarud Music promoted by Audio Library https://youtu.be/vpssnpH_H4c

 Des traders stars, deux prix Nobel, un ex-vice président de la FED, que peut-il se passer ? Ou comment la dream team de Wall Street a perdu 4.6 milliards de dollars et mis le système financier à genoux. C'était il y a 30 ans mais reste l'une des histoires de trading les plus incroyables de ces dernières années. 

Victor Haghani has been actively involved in the market for over 35 years and was one of the founding partners of Long-Term Capital Management. LTCM was one of biggest hedge funds, with $128 billion assets, until 1998 almost collapsing and causing a global financial crisis if the Federal Reserve didn't step in. In this episode, we discuss Victor’s early days at Salomon Brothers, the launch of LTCM, and the subsequent debacle. Victor reflects on his past and discusses lessons he learned from those experiences and how his investing style changed along the way. For links, resources and book recommendations by Victor, see our episode show notes on our website. We value your feedback and we would appreciate any suggestions for improvement. Please take our survey.

Topics We Cover ICE9 Gold Standard Disaster Planning Inflation Why Gold is King And Much More Watch on YouTube   ABOUT JAMES RICKARDS https://dailyreckoning.com/ James G. Rickards is the editor of Strategic Intelligence. He is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He was the principal negotiator of the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) by the U.S Federal Reserve in 1998. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates.His work is regularly featured in the Financial Times, Evening Standard, New York Times, The Telegraph, and Washington Post, and he is frequently a guest on BBC, RTE Irish National Radio, CNN, NPR, CSPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and The Wall Street Journal. He has contributed as an advisor on capital markets to the U.S. intelligence community, and at the Office of the Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon.Rickards is the author of The New Case for Gold (April 2016), and three New York Times best sellers,

When it comes to equity derivatives, few individuals have traded more options than John Succo.  Across a career in markets spanning more than 3 decades, John has managed convexity risk on both the sell-side and buy-side, through high and low vol periods and across single stock and index options.  During the course of our discussion, John shares many rich stories.  He brings to life the early days of career – one in which option pricing inefficiencies were significant across both strike and time.  He describes one of the large, early hedging trades he orchestrated in 1989 – a collar on S&P 500 shortly before the UAL mini-crash in October.  And he has plenty to say about the spectacular blow-up of LTCM, an outcome that surprised him very little.  A theme throughout our conversation is John’s careful attention to sizing positions and his overall objective of remaining long gamma.  While the lean periods for volatility make this challenging, John successfully managed decay through active position management, trading the range in volatility and offsetting some of the bleed from long single stock vol by selling index volatility.  The result was that his hedge fund, Vicis Capital, became looked upon by institutional allocators as a valuable  addition to a portfolio of generally correlated risk-assets.  The orthogonal nature of the return stream from Vicis was of great value for investors in the period leading into and through the financial crisis.  Today, John is a partner at SS Financial, and remains a keen and skeptical observer of markets.  On his mind mostly is debt and the view that it is the sudden stop of unsustainable leverage that usually figures complicit in big vol events.  Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with John Succo. 

DOCK TREECE January 23, 2020Thursday, markets were quiet yesterday as everyone was glued to the impeachment proceeding in the Senate (just kidding).A listener sent me an article and asked a question about the lack of liquidity in the overnight lending market (repo). The article below is the best explanation of the problem I have found although some will label it a conspiracy. Remember it's only a conspiracy until it is proven correct. One reason I am willing to give it credibility is it is too similar to both the 1998 LTCM problem and the 2008 financial debacle.The only other interesting issue is the spread of the caronavirus in China.

In 1998, Scott Ladner hit the derivatives scene at First Union, just as LTCM was imploding and equity volatility was rocketing higher.  No sooner would the Fed help contain that risk episode, then the tech bubble would be set in motion.  An intense period of “stocks up, vol up”  during which valuations expanded to unheard of levels, followed by an equally intense, “stocks down, vol up” characterized the period of 1999 through 2001 and provided hands on, sometimes painful experiences for Scott in managing convexity risk.  Short airline volatility during the September 11th terrorist attack, Scott quickly came to appreciate the potential for significant gap risk and discontinuity in markets, a reality not contemplated in the textbook version of Black Scholes.My conversation with Scott considers insights gathered over a career managing volatility exposure across asset classes and how he came to his role as CIO of Horizon Investments.  Scott shares his views on how volatility can come and go, how many factors can come to impact the price of options and how important it is to have a number of little bets on versus being overly concentrated in a singular exposure.  He points to the value, but also the dangers of option models, learning along the way not to take the output too seriously and to constantly re-examine the assumptions being made.  Today, Scott’s dashboard consists of credit, liquidity and risk metrics with the goal of identifying incongruities that help him focus his research to better understand market dynamics.  In this context, we discuss the early and late year vol events of 2018.Lastly, we discuss Horizon’s efforts on behalf of its clients to manage wealth and reach retirement goals within the constraints of the low growth and low interest rate environment.  His team is seeking to build risk management techniques that work specifically in today’s unique economic and financial climate.  Noting that there is now “an ETF for everything”, he sees the last 10 years as the age of product.  The next 10, in contrast, he views as the age of planning, where the focus should be on how to best utilize these new products to maximize the wealth and overall experience of retirement for individuals.  Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Scott Ladner.

In the mid 1980's, and recently graduated from Marquette University, a young Jim Bianco scored an accidental meeting for a position with First Boston. Most fortuitously, his resume wound up in the wrong pile, leading him to be mistakenly invited in to interview for a spot supporting a senior analyst. As luck would have it, Jim got the job and so was launched a more than 30 year career in markets. In 1998, amidst the chaos that was LTCM, Jim boldly launch his own firm. And more than two decades later, Bianco Research continues to provide differentiated advice on markets, Central Banks and the economy to its clients.My discussion with Jim focuses on monetary policy, global disinflation and the unholy impact of negative rates on the banking system. Jim’s perspective on the big picture, slow moving yet powerful forces of demographics illustrates how the excess of global savings leads to greater demand for safe fixed income assets. He points as well to the downward pressure on prices due to technological advancement. In this context, he is skeptical that more of the same easy policy from Central Banks is the right medicine to address inflation and growth shortfall.Lastly, I solicit Jim’s views on advancements in research being made possible by Neural Linguistic Processing. Jim and his team have used NLP, for example, to analyze word choices in Fed policy communications to score the degree of focus on growth, inflation, financial stability and other important variables. As data is made more available and at a cheaper price, new techniques like NLP provide exciting opportunities to gain insights on risk. Lastly, we touch on Modern Monetary Theory. While not a fan, Jim acknowledges the momentum of the MMT front, especially as the 2020 election comes into view.

Hedge fund LTCM, used strategies to exploit small pricing discrepancies in the market, following a Russian default LTM collapsed.

SBTV's latest guest is Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics. We discuss the failure of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and how it resulted in the 'death sentence of Bear Stearns years later in the financial crisis of 2008.

SBTV's latest guest is Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics. We discuss the failure of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and how it resulted in the 'death sentence of Bear Stearns years later in the financial crisis of 2008.

No hedge fund in the 1990s made bigger waves than Long Term Capital Management.  In 1996, their profits exceeded the net income for Disney, Dell and Nike... combined.  Using sophisticated computer models and massive leverage, LTCM made billions of dollars for their investors and the fund’s partners. In 1998, circumstances changed, causing the fund to implode in an epic meltdown that threatened the very fabric of Wall Street.  The Federal Reserve finally stepped in to orchestrate a bailout.  A new phrase was born on Wall Street - “too big to fail.”

Armed with a Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics, Vineer brings a deep understanding of financial mathematics to developing trading strategies in the derivatives market. At the same time, he’s learned real lessons over the years about the inherent uncertainties in markets – the surprise Fed tightening in 1994, and the LTCM meltdown in 1998 were formative experiences for Vineer that now guide a risk philosophy that pays careful attention to the tails. Our in-depth discussion on the extremely low level of market volatility in 2017 uncovers Vineer’s framework for evaluating the risks that can emerge when volatility collapses.

Ten years ago, in September 2008, Lehman Brothers failed. It marked a decisive moment in the financial crisis, one where the U.S. economy plunged into what we now know as the Great Recession. With such a momentous anniversary approaching (September 15, if you want to mark your calendar), you can expect there'll be a slew of stories that look back at what happened and where things stand. But there’s another anniversary that’s not getting as much attention. Ten years before Lehman, in 1998, the country faced another possible crisis, and at its center was another financial firm, Long-Term Capital Management. LTCM, as it was known, was one of the world's largest hedge funds. But after Russia defaulted on its debt, LTCM faced a near collapse as a result of its investments along with too much leverage (a significant reason behind the financial crisis in 2008). The New York Federal Reserve Bank stepped in and organized a bailout of LTCM with the backing of the largest banks on Wall Street. This week on Money Talking, Rob Cox, Global Editor of Reuters Breakingviews, discusses what we did — and didn't — learn from the global financial crash that nearly was, and what the lasting impacts we can see today.

1998'de gerçekleşen ve 2 milyar Dolar'lık zarara sebep olan faciayı anlattım. 2 Nobel ödüllü ekonomist, bir grup matematikçi, bir grup bilgisayar uzmanı nasıl olduda bu parayı batırdı? Bizler bundan ne dersler çıkarabiliriz? Long Term Capital Management faciası...

  In this the third episode of the Goldnomics podcast we ask the question; “Is the gold price going to $10,000”. GoldCore CEO Stephen Flood and GoldCore's Research Director and world renowned precious metals commentator Mark O'Byrne in discussion with Dave Russell. We discuss what will drive gold to new record highs over the coming months and years. We look at the dangerous developments in monetary policy and the geo-political tensions that make an allocation to gold a prudent move for your portfolio. As the “Everything Bubble” continues fuelled by the mainstream media and the effects of quantitative easing does this mean higher gold prices are on the horizon? Cutting through the financial markets jargon and looking at the risks to your investment portfolio that aren't spoken about in the mainstream media. Listen to the full episode or skip directly to one of the following discussion points: 1:07 Is the gold price going to $10,000 and when? 3:58 The 5 major driving factors that will be the key to driving gold prices higher. 4:39 What impact and influence will monetary policy play? 5:50 Why the debt to GDP ratio is crippling economies. 6:22 The dangerous trend that began with LTCM being bailed out by Wall Street. 6:55 Why you are now the lender of last resort for the banking system! 7:18 The little known fact that we are now in an era of bail-ins rather than bail-outs and what this means for your savings. 6:28 How bail-ins will impact small businesses and everyone that they employ. 10:05 Why “money in the bank”, is no longer “as safe as houses”! 10:39 How the old wisdom of “Cash is King”, can quickly become; “Cash is Trash”! 12:08 How governments have snuck in the highly controversial bail-in laws under the radar. 14:01 Why SMEs need to start to manage their exposure to banks just like large corporations. 14:58 Why high-net-worth individuals and those that manage family money need to manage their exposure to the banking system, just like large corporations. 15:05 Why higher interest rates are good for gold! 16:25 The interest rate environment that is not good for gold. 18: 18 The ongoing effect of quantitative easing and how it’s artificially inflating all asset prices. 19:50 Why gold is no longer being pushed higher by quantitative easing. 20:30 The compelling research from PWC that proves the wisdom of gold’s inclusion in your portfolio. 22:29 Inflation, deflation and stagflation, where we are now and what it means for the gold price. 24:44 The inflationary and deflationary elastic band pressures in the economy. 26:58 Geopolitical tensions are rising and sabre-rattling is getting louder. Life in the Trump era and the breaking down of old alliances. 31:10 How to deflect attention – The Goebbels strategy! 33:45 The fault with the media and how they have let us down. 34:37 James Steele of HSBC and the performance of gold during times of uncertainty and war. 35:58 A new multipolar world emerging. 37:13 Why the basic fundamentals of supply and demand are very strong for gold. 37:35 Elon Musk mining gold on mars! 39:18 Have the Germans copped on to this risk to the Euro that other countries are blindly ignoring. 40:35 What underlies jewellery demand in Asia and the Middle East. It’s not what you think. 42:05 The increase in demand for segregated allocated gold and viewing gold as money. 43:58 The continuing Central Bank demand for gold, is it set to increase further. 44:50 These governments are encouraging their citizens to buy gold now! 46:35 Why we shouldn’t believe what these people say but instead watch what they do. 47:10 The breaking down of trust between nations can be seen by this one move. 47:30 What will happen to keep the gold price from appreciating anytime soon. 51:30 All gold is not equal.   People mentioned in this episode: James Steel – HSBC Precious Metals Analyst Jim Rickards - https://jimrickards.blogspot.com/ Make sure you don't miss a single episode...... Subscribe to the Goldnomics Podcasts on iTunes, Soundcloud, or YouTube: https://soundcloud.com/stephen-flood-381451255 YouTube.com/user/GoldCoreLimited Follow us on social media: GoldCore on Twitter: https://twitter.com/goldcore GoldCore on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GoldCore/ GoldCore on Linkedin: https://ie.linkedin.com/company/goldcore Visit our website at: https://www.goldcore.com  

  My guest in this episode is Jim Rickards. Jim is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a financial newsletter, and Director of The James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics + global capital. He is the author of three New York Times best sellers, The Road to Ruin (2016), The Death of Money (2014), and Currency Wars (2011), and the national best seller, The New Case for Gold (2016). He is an investment advisor, lawyer, and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates. He is an Op-Ed contributor to the Financial Times, Evening Standard, The Telegraph New York Times, and Washington Post, and has been interviewed on BBC, CNN, NPR, C-SPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Rickards is a guest lecturer in globalization and finance at The Johns Hopkins University, Georgetown University, The Kellogg School at Northwestern, and the School of Advanced International Studies. He has delivered papers on risk at Singularity University, the Applied Physics Laboratory, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He is an advisor on capital markets to the U.S. intelligence community, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and is on the Advisory Board of the Center on Sanctions & Illicit Finance in Washington DC. Mr. Rickards holds an LL.M. (Taxation) from the NYU School of Law; a J.D. from the University of Pennsylvania Law School; an M.A. in international economics from SAIS, and a B.A. (with honors) from Johns Hopkins. He lives in Connecticut. Interview Links: The James Rickards Project Meraglim Jim Rickards Books If you have enjoyed our podcast, please share with friends and family Please Subscribe, Rate, and Review on Itunes so more people can find us! so more people can find us! Please Support Us by Becoming A Patron on Patreon Support Our Sponsors Cashflow Tactics, will show you how to collapse time in your financial plan and become financially in 10 years or less. You can register for a free webinar to show you exactly how to do that at: https://cashflowtactics.com/ninja Gelt Inc.,  is committed to providing investors with quality, cash-flowing investment opportunities and is seeking to acquire multifamily, retail, and mobile home park properties in the Western United States with an emphasis in California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. www.geltinc.com The Real Asset Investor, create value for investors looking for higher yield returns from real estate ventures domestically and also internationally and other real asset classes such as ATM's. www.therealassetinvestor.com Joint Ops Properties, have designed a system to take any beginner to an experienced deal making investor in the least amount of time, offering opportunities from basic education, coaching, bridge investing to turn-key investments in the cash flowing market of St. Louis, MO. www.jointopsproperties.com Norada Real Estate helps take the guesswork out of real estate investing.  By researching top real estate growth markets and structuring complete turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability. www.noradarealestate.com Valhalla Wealth Financial, reclaim the banking function within your own life with the premier strategies of the Wealthy. www.valhallawealth.com Audible, download any audio book for FREE when you try Audible for 30 days www.cashflowninjabook.com Thanks so much for joining me again. Have some feedback you’d like to share? Leave a note in the comment section below! If you enjoyed this episode, please share it using the social media buttons you see at the bottom of the post! Also, please leave an honest review for the Cashflow Ninja Podcast on iTunes. Ratings and reviews are extremely helpful and greatly appreciated! They do matter in the rankings of the show, and I read each and every one of them. And finally, don’t forget to subscribe to the show on iTunes to get automatic updates, please follow me on twitter @mclaubscher and Instagram, @cashflowninjapodcast. Until next time! Live a life of passion and purpose on YOUR terms, M.C. Laubscher

My guest for this episode of Informed Choice Radio is James Rickards. Jim is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a financial newsletter, and Director of The James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and global capital. He is the author of The Road to Ruin (2016) and The New Case for Gold (2016), and two New York Times best sellers, The Death of Money (2014), and Currency Wars (2011). James is a portfolio manager, lawyer, and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. He is an adviser on capital markets to the U.S. intelligence community, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and is on the Advisory Board of the Center on Sanctions & Illicit Finance in Washington DC. He served as facilitator of the first-ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon. In his new book, The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis, Jim shares his thoughts on how investors can prepare for the next financial panic and why it’s coming sooner than you think. In this episode of Informed Choice Radio, I speak to Jim about why he believes the collapse of the global monetary system is inevitable, the possible triggers for the collapse, the role the International Monetary Fund could play, some steps we can all take to protect our wealth, and the role China is playing with massive stockpiling of gold reserves. Welcome to The Road to Ruin with James Rickards, in episode 142 of Informed Choice Radio. Some questions I ask -What inspired you to write this series of books? -What's going to be the trigger for the next financial collapse? -What will the collapse look like for the ordinary citizen? How are we going to feel it in our everyday lives? -Are there any strategies investors can follow to deal with the short and long-term impact of the global monetary system collapsing? -Does China play a role with its stockpiling of gold? Thank you for listening! To get new episodes of Informed Choice Radio sent directly to your device as soon as they are published, you can subscribe on iTunes or Stitcher Your reviews on iTunes are incredibly helpful and really appreciated. We get notified about each one; please leave a note of your name and website URL so we can mention you in a future episode.

My guest today is Jim Rickards. Jim was front and center during the 1998 LTCM blow-up. He was a partner and general counsel for Long Term Capital Management. Following their blowup, he was principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve. He has had a bird's eye view of some of the most interesting events in the economy over the last 20 years. The topic is all that is finance. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Jim talks about the three elements that his model is based on: behavioral finance, complexity theory and inverse probability. He goes into great depth on what all of those models are and gives real life examples for them. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Jim Rickards. Jim was front and center during the 1998 LTCM blow-up. He was a partner and general counsel for Long Term Capital Management. Following their blowup, he was principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve. He has had a bird’s eye view of some of the most interesting events in the economy over the last 20 years. In Jim’s latest book, “The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis,” he talks about 1998, 2008 and 2018. Jim gives these dates as examples of financial crises that happen (and will happen) every six to ten years. He relates financial panics to earthquakes. If you could stop an earthquake mid earthquake, this is similar to how we have been dealing with financial crises over the years. When bubbles are created, and then bailouts occur, government is only putting a stopper in the problem, however the problem is still there and building. The next bailout can’t come from the central banks. Jim and Michael finish the podcast discussing cyber hacking and WWIII. Jim believes WWIII has already begun between Russia and America on a cyber warfare front. Cyber warfare has been happening between Russia and the U.S. for years. It is the worse kind of attack because you can get into major operating systems. Jim uses the operating systems of the Hoover Dam or getting into the operating system of the New York Stock Exchange as examples. If a terrorist got into the operating system of the Hoover Dam and opened up the flood gates it would wipe out hundreds of thousands of people.

Everyone was told to trust the system and be happy: “Save your money and interest income will be your retirement.” This has come to be completely untrue and people are collectively beginning to wise up, as seen in Brexit. Michael goes into a timeline of market crashes illustrating trend following success: 1973-1974 stocks go down 50% and trend following kills it. 1987, known as Black Market Monday, US stocks go down 20%+ in a day and trend following kills it. Barings Bank collapses spring of 1995, trend following kills it. August 1998, Long Term Capital Management craters, and trend following made a fortune. It was almost a zero sum transfer from LTCM to trend followers in August of 1998. Spring of 2000, the dot com bubble bursts and trend following cleans up again. 2002 was one of the best trend following performance years ever. After 2002 another bubble is built and when it burst in October of 2008, trend following had outstanding performance results yet again. When the majority of people think the world is ending, trend following is reaping the profits. Brexit? Yes, too. Nobody can predict the future but if you want to play the game, you have to place bets. Trend followers were in established trends once Brexit hit. They do not predict, but they have educated bets. Michael ends with one question, “What side are you going to be on? The side of the winners or the side of the losers?” It’s your choice. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Boom and busts Brexit Certainty in markets

My guest today is Jim Rickards. Jim was front and center during the 1998 LTCM blow-up. He was a partner and general counsel for Long Term Capital Management. Following their blowup, he was principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve. He has had a bird's eye view of some of the most interesting events in the economy over the last 20 years. The topic is all that is finance. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Jim talks about the three elements that his model is based on: behavioral finance, complexity theory and inverse probability. He goes into great depth on what all of those models are and gives real life examples for them. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Jim Rickards. Jim was front and center during the 1998 LTCM blow-up. He was a partner and general counsel for Long Term Capital Management. Following their blowup, he was principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve. He has had a bird’s eye view of some of the most interesting events in the economy over the last 20 years. Michael and Jim dive right into the sequence of events that lead to the devaluation of the Thai Baht in May of 1997. Jim then goes into the chronology of events that took place leading to the fall of Long Term Capital Management. He makes clear that LTCM had some of the brightest brains in finance working for them at the time, including Nobel Prize winners and a vast number of PhD’s from MIT, Harvard, Stanford, Yale, etc. Jim summarizes the events prompting Russia to default on their debt which let loose a sequence of events leading to LTCM losing four billion dollars in one month. Wall Street cared not for the four billion LTCM loss but because they had over 1 trillion dollars of derivatives contracts tied to LTCM positions. Many thought all of Wall Street would have been taken down if LTCM went down. That was when the Fed intervened and organized a bailout. Jim goes on to talk about the changes that took place and the lessons that were learned from the fall of LTCM. He says the three lessons that should have been taken away from the crisis were; derivatives are dangerous, leverage is dangerous and getting banks involved is dangerous. The changes started with repealing Glass Steagall in 1999, rewriting laws so they could do “swaps” on everything, and then in 2006 the SEC changed leverage rules on brokers. So in short regulators ended up doing the complete opposite of what they should have learned from LTCM. Michael asks the question, “Why were the same people who were saying that the economy was great till the day it crashed, the same people that were responsible for fixing it?” Jim says policy makers never see bubbles. He gives two possible explanations for why policy makers act as they do; conspiracy or complete incompetence. He believes it is more incompetence rather than a conspiracy and goes on to explain why. Michael and Jim then dive into “models”. If you have the wrong models you will get the wrong results every time. Michael notes that the right models are rooted in behavioral finance. Jim notes that the Fed does not use behavioral economics. Jim talks about the three elements that his model is based on: behavioral finance, complexity theory and inverse probability. He goes into great depth on what all of those models are and gives real life examples for them.

 This was a somewhat bad recording (I left the phone on podium) of Finance 401 at St. Bonaventure.  Today's topic was bond pricing.  We looked at liklihood of getting paid,, rating firms, default rates over time, i-rate spreads, LTCM, and a few other things.  A good class, but I wish I had had better examples.  

SKIP first 15-20 seconds This was a somewhat bad recording (I left the phone on podium) of Finance 401 at St. Bonaventure.  Today's topic was bond pricing.  We looked at liklihood of getting paid,, rating firms, default rates over time, i-rate spreads, LTCM, and a few other things.  A good class, but I wish I had had better examples.  

Your host Miguel Perez-Santalla, Vice President of BullionVault is joined by James Rickards author of the national bestseller, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and the forthcoming, The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System. Discussions will center on current monetary practices of the central banks and governments and where this will lead the world in the future. Additionally, we will discuss the recent annexation of Crimea by Russia and the slowing Chinese economy along with their apparent looming credit crisis.James Rickards is a portfolio manager at West Shore Group and a partner in Tangent Capital Partners, a merchant bank based in New York. He is also a counselor and investment advisor and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates. He has been interviewed in The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, CNN, BBC and NPR and is an Op-Ed contributor to the Financial Times, New York Times and Washington Post.About Miguel Perez-SantallaA passionate advocate for retail investors and a regular speaker at industry and media events, Miguel Perez-Santalla has more than 30 years’ experience in the precious metals business. He is a Vice President of BullionVault, the world’s largest precious metals exchange for gold and silver.Click here to register for market news      

Your host Miguel Perez-Santalla, Vice President of BullionVault is joined by James Rickards author of the national bestseller, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and the forthcoming, The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System. Discussions will center on current monetary practices of the central banks and governments and where this will lead the world in the future. Additionally, we will discuss the recent annexation of Crimea by Russia and the slowing Chinese economy along with their apparent looming credit crisis.James Rickards is a portfolio manager at West Shore Group and a partner in Tangent Capital Partners, a merchant bank based in New York. He is also a counselor and investment advisor and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates. He has been interviewed in The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, CNN, BBC and NPR and is an Op-Ed contributor to the Financial Times, New York Times and Washington Post.About Miguel Perez-SantallaA passionate advocate for retail investors and a regular speaker at industry and media events, Miguel Perez-Santalla has more than 30 years’ experience in the precious metals business. He is a Vice President of BullionVault, the world’s largest precious metals exchange for gold and silver.Click here to register for market news      

Liquidity problems lie at the heart of crises on financial markets as demonstrated in this paper by detailed descriptions of the stock market crash in 1987, the LTCM-crisis in 1998 and the financial market consequences of 11 September 2001. The events also demonstrate that modern central banks, in particular the U.S. Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan, provided emergency liquidity to limit the negative effects of such crises. However, the anecdotal and empirical evidence from the three crises shows that such emergency liquidity assistance implies risks to goods price stability if it is not focused on the interbank market and quickly sterilised.