Podcast appearances and mentions of Jay Powell

There were several key points from Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole which everyone seems to have missed. The market picked up on them, however, with SOFR futures reacting by pushing its inversion deeper and further out, now early 2027. What Chair Powell meant under everything he said was he finally gets the big Beveridge risk.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speechhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Jay Powell vs. Ronald McDonald? The FOMC yesterday published the minutes of its July meeting which showed a majority of officials believe inflation is the country's greatest threat. So, it was a huge shock when the world's biggest fast-food joint reported - ON THE SAME DAY - it was doing the opposite. Even the FOMC "majority" isn't as solid as it is made to appear, as the minutes also contained one observation that really does align with these real economy facts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here here: monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------FOMC Minutes for July 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250730.pdfFox Business McDonald's to slash combo meal prices to win back budget-conscious shoppershttps://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/mcdonalds-slash-combo-meal-prices-win-back-budget-conscious-shoppersCNN McDonald's is cutting prices of its combo meals to convince customers it's affordable againhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/08/20/food/mcdonalds-combo-lower-pricesBloomberg Fed Chair Contender Bullard Backs 100 Basis Points of 2025 Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/fed-chair-contender-bullard-backs-100-basis-points-of-2025-cutsBloomberg US Stocks Extend Slide as Walmart Misses, Jobless Claims Risehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/us-equity-futures-fall-as-walmart-misses-jobless-claims-risehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

US tech stocks sold off on Tuesday, and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell will be between a rock and a hard place when he delivers his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this Friday. Plus, Ozempic-maker Novo Nordisk has fallen behind its rivals. Does it have a plan to catch up? Mentioned in this podcast:Jay Powell to deliver Jackson Hole address under fire on multiple frontsUS tech stocks hit by wave of concerns over future of AI boomHow Novo Nordisk lost its lead in the weight loss raceLabubu frenzy sends Pop Mart profits soaringToday's FT News Briefing was produced by Fiona Symon, Katya Kumkova, Sonja Hutson, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Kelly Garry, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our acting co-head of audio is Topher Forhecz. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A surge in interest rate cut optimism sends stocks to all-time highs, but stock futures are struggling to keep the momentum alive. Plus, first it was Jay Powell — now President Trump sets his sights on one Goldman Sachs economist and frequent guest here on CNBC. Goldman remains silent on the allegations. And later, a fast-casual collapse has shares of Cava, Starbucks, McDonald's, and more sinking.

All guests join us on the Farm Bureau Insurance guest line, and we are LIVE from the BankPlus Studio! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All guests join us on the Farm Bureau Insurance guest line, and we are LIVE from the BankPlus Studio! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

August 8, 2025 - Zach and Chase take a look at the candidates to replace Jay Powell and tariff drama. 

Today, we're sharing an episode from our fellow FT podcast, Swamp Notes.The US president is angry with the chair of the Federal Reserve over interest rates. He's applying a lot of pressure on Jay Powell to lower them or leave his job. The FT's Claire Jones and Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, break down what will happen if Trump succeeds in either of those goals.This episode originally aired on July 26.Subscribe to Swamp Notes on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you get your podcasts.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  There's a lot of noise — and a lot of misinformation — about the Federal Reserve's true influence over your mortgage, credit card, and car loan rates. In this episode, we cut through the nonsense and explain what the Fed actually controls (hint: it's not what most people think). From misattributed Mark Twain quotes to fiscal recklessness driving long-term rates, this is a reality check for anyone blaming Jay Powell for everything under the sun. The truth? The Fed doesn't have a magic button — and our real problem starts in Washington.

This weekend, we're sharing an episode from our fellow FT podcast, Swamp Notes. The US president is angry with the chair of the Federal Reserve over interest rates. He's applying a lot of pressure on Jay Powell to lower them or leave his job. The FT's Claire Jones and Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, break down what will happen if Trump succeeds in either of those goals.Subscribe to Swamp Notes on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Charles is looking at the latest data on price changes and the labor market, and he's coming to one conclusion: we are not due for the same “earth-shattering” price spikes we saw under the Biden administration. So why does Jay Powell need to see this economy get hit before he steps up and calls for a cut? Charles talks to FOX Business' Larry Kudlow about dissent at the Fed and how the Fed Chair took his “eye off the ball.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, Jeremy and Gareth talk Turnberry and trade deals - with a backdrop of some tech titans' Q2 earnings reports with such strong results that "American Exceptionalism" seems as strong as ever.  The anticipated dispersion of capital to other venues will have to wait, as AI spend dominates and American giants are mainly the beneficiaries.  The US FOMC decision (to leave rates unchanged) allowed Jay Powell to highlight that the credibility of the Fed relies on his ability to not bow to political pressure - highlighting that risks lie in both directions.  Jeremy's comment is that reduced rates could let the genie out of the bottle, with inflation expectations significantly heightened and permanently elevated. If the US is run like an emerging market, it could well end up with emerging market inflation - and interest rates - with major implications for all of us.  Meanwhile, Scott Bessant is looking to stablecoin mechanisms and untapped bank liquidity/leverage to help plug the gap in demand for US treasuries...  Next month sees the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers - but next week we have the UK MPC interest rate decision.  Markets are expecting a 25 basis point cut - but Jeremy cautions that the UK doesn't often like to jump the gun on rate moves, so the US "hold" this week might spell trouble for those expectations.  Gareth talks about Progressive clients STV, IG Design Group, Forterra and SDI Group, and Jeremy highlights the strength of the UK market, buoyed partly by bid activity - with £3bn of incoming capital for IPF and Just Group, both of which saw takeover announcements. Looking to the next week, US non-farm payroll data will show how the economy is coping with both tariff impacts and the changed migration dynamics in the US job market.  US PMI and UK rate decisions are due next week, but the main event is still likely to be Trump-related, whether and how much he provokes genuine and material trade wars with China, Canada, Mexico, Brazil...or others !  Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Markets digest a wave of earnings with Paul Hickey of Bespoke breaking down the trends. Visa, Starbucks, Booking Holdings, and Mondelez all report—with full team coverage. Nucor CEO Leon Topalian joins to discuss steel demand and economic signals. Evans May Wealth's Brooke May previews a packed Wednesday featuring Jay Powell and Big Tech. Plus, breaking down a mega-merger in the rails with CEOs of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern and CommVault CEO Sanjay Mirchandani on what was behind the cyber company's strong quarter. 

Lael Brainard, former director of the National Economic Council under President Biden, former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve and distinguished fellow at the Georgetown Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy discusses President Trump's continued pressure on Fed chair Jerome Powell following the President's visit to the Federal Reserve to tour renovations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rob Kaplan, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs and former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shares his outlook on monetary policy and discusses the latest as President Trump continues to put pressure on Fed chair Jay Powell to lower interest rates. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Higher Exchanges, we dive into the chaos and clarity surrounding cannabis reform, capital markets, and hemp regulation. Joining us is Scott Grossman of Turning Point Brands for a timely roundtable on what's real, what's noise, and what could actually move the needle.

Trump knows that the Supreme Court, based on a May decision,  won't support him out and out firing “without cause” —like fraud or a crime—the Federal Reserve Chair and the nation's central banker Jay Powell. Michael Popok calls out Trump's efforts to use the F word (fraud) against Powell as he walks around with a firing letter in his back pocket, and why it will backfire with the electorate..and the US economy. Qualia: Head to https://qualialife.com/LEGALAF and use promo code: LEGALAF at checkout for 15% off your purchase! Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast The Influence Continuum: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-influence-continuum-with-dr-steven-hassan Mea Culpa with Michael Cohen: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/mea-culpa-with-michael-cohen The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show Burn the Boats: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/burn-the-boats Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 Political Beatdown: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/political-beatdown On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Coalition of the Sane: https://meidasnews.com/tag/coalition-of-the-sane Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Mark Thornton breaks down the political pressure from Trump, market demands for cheap money, and the Federal Reserve's real fears: a collapsing dollar, rising inflation, and soaring long-term rates. Mark traces the history of interest rate manipulation, the precarious state of US debt, and why Chairman Powell may be clinging to high rates—not for the public good, but to save face before his 2026 exit. With the dollar weakening and deficits exploding, Mark explains why the next crisis could be just one rate cut away.Additional Resources"Trump Is Wrong about Interest Rates" by Ryan McMaken (Radio Rothbard Podcast): https://mises.org/MI_129_A"Will Fed Cut Rates By 3%? Is Massive Inflation Returning? Economist Steve Hanke Answers": https://mises.org/MI_129_B"Federal Funds Effective Rate": https://mises.org/MI_129_C"Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index": https://mises.org/MI_129_D"Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis": https://mises.org/MI_129_E"Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 17–18, 2025" (PDF): https://mises.org/MI_129_F"US FOMC Meeting Minutes (June 17-18, 2025)" by Ksenia Bushmeneva: https://mises.org/MI_129_GRegister for the 2025 Mises Institute Supporters Summit in Delray Beach, Florida, October 16–18: https://mises.org/ss25Be sure to follow Minor Issues at https://Mises.org/MinorIssues

Donald Trump asked lawmakers whether he should fire Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, and Wall Street saw a surprise comeback in investment banking fees. Plus, the UK's inflation rate rose higher than expected last month, and yields on Japan's 10-year government debt jumped ahead of Sunday's election.Mentioned in this podcast:Donald Trump asked lawmakers whether he should fire Fed's Jay Powell Goldman Sachs profits jump 22% after investment banking gains UK inflation unexpectedly rises to 18-month high of 3.6%Japan's 10-year yield hits highest level since 2008 financial crisisCredit: Fox NewsSend in your Swamp Notes questions (Marc.Filippino@FT.com)Today's FT News Briefing was produced by Sonja Hutson, Katya Kumkova, Ethan Plotkin, Henry Larson and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Blake Maples, Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our acting co-head of audio is Topher Forhecz. Our intern is Michaela Seah. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Alex Thorn talks with Alex Leishman (River) about building a bitcoin-only brokerage, how stablecoins interact with bitcoin, why small businesses are beginning to own BTC, the importance of Proof of Reserves, building with Bitcoin Core, and much more. Alex also talks with Beimnet Abebe (Galaxy Trading) about Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve's independence. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, July 16, 2025. ++ Follow us on Twitter, @glxyresearch, and read our research at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.galaxy.com/research/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more! This podcast, and the information contained herein, has been provided to you by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP and its affiliates (“Galaxy Digital”) solely for informational purposes. View the full disclaimer at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.galaxy.com/disclaimer-galaxy-brains-podcast/

Chuck Todd begins with the growing firestorm surrounding President Donad Trump's decision to withhold the Epstein files and why his behavior is only adding to the suspicion. He explains why Epstein is a central figure to the QAnon conspiracy many Trump supporters subscribe to, and why Trump's continued dismissals of a theory he has fed for years will only further fracture his base and prolong the outrage over his broken promise to release all the files.Then, Chuck is joined by formal FTC Chair Lina Khan to reflect on her transformative tenure leading the Federal Trade Commission and the critical battles she fought against corporate monopolization. Khan discusses how the concentration of corporate power today mirrors the early 20th century, exploring whether capitalism itself is failing as tech giants like Google and Amazon wield unprecedented control over commerce, media distribution, and information flow. She delves into the surveillance economy that has emerged from companies monetizing user data, the regulatory challenges posed by AI development, and controversial practices like surveillance pricing and non-compete agreements that trap both consumers and workers.Khan also addresses the structural limitations of the FTC, noting how the agency is too small for its ambitious mission, while highlighting unexpected bipartisan support from the populist right for her antitrust work. The conversation covers her efforts to tackle everything from pharmacy benefit managers and subscription cancellation difficulties to the urgent need for algorithm regulation, particularly for content affecting children. As she prepares to leave the FTC, Khan reflects on the media's focus on markets rather than the broader economy, the ongoing fight for data privacy rights, and the "ferocious pushback" lawmakers face when challenging powerful corporate interests, offering practical advice for consumers seeking to protect their privacy in an increasingly surveilled digital landscape.Finally, Chuck shares his experience of discovering that Google's Gemini AI claims that he was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease… which is not true. Timeline:(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)00:00 Introduction01:30 Seemed like Trump would fire Jay Powell to distract from Epstein03:30 Markets reacted badly to potential firing of Powell04:15 Trump attacks his own supporters over Epstein06:15 “Hoax” is Trumpspeak for not having a good explanation08:00 Trump's behavior is creating more suspicion11:30 Most Epstein associates probably just looked the other way12:30 The more defiant Trump sounds, the more guilty he looks13:15 Most right wing media has fallen in line behind Trump14:15 Michael Flynn is the pope of QAnon, and is expressing doubts16:45 The central tenet of QAnon is the idea of an elite pedophile cabal18:15 If Trump says it's a hoax, it knocks down the foundational pillar of Qanon19:00 Epstein became the face of the conspiracy20:30 Trump and his associates have fed the conspiracy theorists for years22:00 If they had evidence of crimes, they would have brought charges23:45 This could be the moment Trump supporters finally feel conned25:15 Trump's age is showing, possible health issue they won't disclose28:00 You can't trust any press release the administration puts out29:30 Trump won't get out of the Epstein debacle unscathed31:15 Lina Khan joins the Chuck ToddCast! 32:15 Lina's path to becoming the FTC chair 34:15 Concentration of corporate power is similar to the early 20th century 37:15 Is capitalism failing? 39:00 Large corporations control the distribution of media and information 40:15 Will the consolidation of power destroy the media ecosystem? 42:00 Google and Amazon have enormous power over commerce 43:00 Why are users forced to give up their data in order to use a product? 43:45 Companies monetized by surveilling users 45:15 South Park perfectly parodied the concept of "Terms and Conditions" 46:30 Making the same regulatory mistakes with AI that we did with social media? 47:45 The barrier to entry to starting an AI company is very high 48:45 Collected data is being used for surveillance pricing 49:30 Is the FTC set up to be proactive or reactive? 50:30 Non-compete agreements are being used to trap employees 51:30 The FTC is too small for its mission 52:15 The populist right supported Lina's work at FTC 54:15 Can independent pharmacists survive in this market? 55:45 Why do pharmacy benefit managers exist? 57:30 What cases that she pursued has the FTC continued to ligitage? 59:45 Subscriptions are incredibly difficult to cancel 1:01:00 Companies have made subscriptions their business model 1:03:45 How do you make the public aware of your work at the FTC? 1:06:15 The media covers markets rather than the economy 1:08:30 Who is regulating algorithms? 1:09:45 There's a massive need for regulating algorithms that affect kids 1:11:00 Will we ever get a data "bill of rights" or more individual control over data? 1:12:30 Some data should be off limits for monetization 1:14:00 Apple store's "Ask Not To Track" setting made a positive difference 1:15:00 Younger users are more comfortable with giving up their data 1:16:15 Lawmakers face ferocious pushback and lobbying 1:16:45 Best ways for consumers to protect their privacy 1:18:15 What's next for Lina?1:19:45 Google AI search says Chuck has Parkinson's disease… he doesn't 1:22:45 The AI confused Chuck with a man named Todd in Florida 1:23:45 AI tools have been trained on the garbage saved on the internet 1:24:45 AI still has terrible flaws based on the data it trains on 1:26:15 The dragnet approach to AI can cause people real problems 1:27:30 AI products are half baked when released to the public 1:28:45 Ask Chuck 1:29:15 Why didn't the administration deport criminal migrants already in prison? 1:30:45 Thoughts on 18 year term limits?

In today's episode, Kip calls out the mainstream financial media for their take on inflation and the impact of Trump's tariffs, sharing his unfiltered views on the Federal Reserve and Jay Powell's role in the current economic landscape. He also recaps the start of Q2 earnings and shares his outlook for the quarter. Tune into today's podcast to learn more

Chuck Todd begins with a rant about his beloved Washington Nationals interesting selection with the #1 overall draft pick. He pivots to the firestorm surrounding the Trump administration over their refusal to release the promised Epstein files to the public and why Trump's reality TV style of governance is colliding with actual reality. He also discusses Trump's retribution campaign having a chilling effect on dissent, the ongoing effort to fire Fed chairman Jay Powell, and highlights a troubling trend for Democrats.Then, Chuck is joined by congresswoman Brittany Pettersen, who offers an insider's perspective on the challenges facing both Congress and her swing district in Colorado. The conversation begins with her advocacy for modernizing congressional rules, particularly around proxy voting for pregnant members, before diving into broader structural issues plaguing the institution. Pettersen argues that Congress has become increasingly dysfunctional due to the consolidation of power in leadership and the erosion of legislative authority, making it especially difficult for women and minority party members to effectively serve their constituents.The discussion covers a wide range of policy challenges, from the housing crisis and healthcare access to immigration reform and climate change. Pettersen emphasizes the need for massive federal investment in housing rather than tax incentives, warns that Trump's policies will exacerbate the housing crisis, and predicts that the homeowners insurance industry will force Congress to act on climate change. She also tackles the politically sensitive topic of immigration, arguing that outdated policies have worsened border security issues and that comprehensive reform would be the best way to address rising costs. Throughout the conversation, Pettersen stresses the importance of transparency in government spending, believing voters deserve to know exactly what services are sacrificed when tax cuts are implemented.Finally, Chuck answers listeners' questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment regarding Trump administration salaries, third party candidates in presidential elections and the immigration bill that never received a vote. Timeline:(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)00:00 Introduction00:15 Nationals perplexing #1 draft pick02:45 The pick isn't reassuring to Nats fans04:00 You can't win if you aren't willing to spend money07:00 Trump's reality TV approach is clashing with reality08:30 Trump is acting very nervous about the Epstein files10:00 The most simple explanations for the Epstein file debacle11:00 What is Trump trying to distract from?11:45 Trump's immigration narrative doesn't match reality14:00 “Alligator Alcatraz” is a disgusting P.R. stunt15:15 The fear Trump has created will hurt the economy16:15 Misinformation made the Texas disaster far worse18:45 Reality will always get the last word20:30 Our broken information ecosystem is running into reality21:30 Trump's retribution campaign is chilling dissent23:30 People who know better are staying silent24:45 Trump is looking for a pretext to fire Jay Powell from the Fed26:00 Trump wants to use a “cost overrun” loophole to fire Powell29:00 There is a gender crisis brewing for the Democratic party31:00 Democrats are being viewed as the “women's party” and against men33:30 Check out Chuck's interview with Rahm Emmanuel on Noosphere!35:00 Brittany Pettersen joins the Chuck ToddCast! 35:30 Tour of Colorado's 7th district 37:15 Changing congressional rules for proxy voting by pregnant members 40:45 Will she introduce legislation for proxy voting if there's a new speaker? 42:30 What guardrails should be put on proxy voting? 44:30 Congress isn't set up for women 46:45 How difficult is it being in the house minority? 48:30 Big beautiful bill removed substance abuse waiver from Medicaid 49:30 Consolidation of power in leadership has been bad for democracy 52:30 Congress has given away its authority to leadership and the executive 55:00 Balancing voter concerns in a swing district 57:30 Social safety nets are being cut off 1:00:00 Is the housing crisis a state or federal issue? 1:01:00 Housing needs massive investment, not tax incentives 1:02:30 What does that investment look like? 1:04:15 Trump's policies will make the housing crisis worse 1:05:45 The homeowners insurance industry will force congress to act on climate 1:07:30 Will leaders re-think killing FEMA after the Texas disaster? 1:10:15 Will FEMA become Medicaid for disasters? 1:12:15 Voters deserve a receipt for their tax dollars 1:14:00 Voters should know what services get sacrificed for tax cuts 1:15:15 How can the immigration system be improved? 1:17:00 Fixing immigration would be the best way to address rising costs 1:18:30 Did Democrats blow it on the issue of border security? 1:20:00 Outdated immigration policy made the border issue far worse 1:21:30 Any interest in running for Michael Bennet's senate seat? 1:23:00 Should there be an age cap for legislators? 1:25:15 What is wrong with the Colorado Rockies?1:27:30 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Brittany Petterson 1:28:45 Ask Chuck 1:29:00 Do Trump appointees with multiple roles get multiple salaries? 1:31:00 Would a viable third party cause a deadlock in presidential elections? 1:35:00 Thoughts on the prior immigration reform bill that was tanked? 1:40:30 Andrew Cuomo trying to rally support against Mamdani

   Shortly after the Senate passed the Big, Beautiful Bill, Missouri Senator Eric Schmitt clarified for everyone that it does eliminate 1.4 million illegal aliens from receiving benefits under Medicaid.  What a relief.    At the same time, Secretary Scott Bessent went on the attack trying to get interest rates down.  In a scathing attack on Fed Chair Jay Powell, Bessent says "complete panic" is not a strategy.  Wow.    If you can believe it, our KKHI scoreboard shows Trump had SEVEN wins on Tuesday, wait until you hear all these.   In sports, everyone thought Salvy had a three run homer in KC's win over Seattle Tuesday.  Wait until you hear about a bone headed play by a centerfielder that fooled everyone.    Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe is taking money away from World Cup KC.... good move.  Big Ben Roethlisberger slams Patrick Mahomes.  A Diamondbacks fan is booted for the season and a country music star cuts off an interview when they ask him about his wife and other men.

This week: Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary in the race for New York City mayor.  Felix Salmon, Emily Peck and Elizabeth Spiers discuss the alarmist reactions from business leaders to the Mamdani's win and why he's hardly the threat to capitalism they make him out to be. Then, Trump has turned his sights on Jay Powell once again, threatening to prematurely name his successor for Fed Chair. The hosts break down why this “shadow chair” tactic is unlikely to work. And finally, mega-billionaire Jeff Bezos is finally marrying his beloved Lauren Sanchez in an over-the-top, star-studded wedding in Venice. Whatever happened to stealth wealth and quiet luxury? In the Slate Plus episode: The MAGA Blue Collar Obsession  Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary in the race for New York City mayor.  Felix Salmon, Emily Peck and Elizabeth Spiers discuss the alarmist reactions from business leaders to the Mamdani's win and why he's hardly the threat to capitalism they make him out to be. Then, Trump has turned his sights on Jay Powell once again, threatening to prematurely name his successor for Fed Chair. The hosts break down why this “shadow chair” tactic is unlikely to work. And finally, mega-billionaire Jeff Bezos is finally marrying his beloved Lauren Sanchez in an over-the-top, star-studded wedding in Venice. Whatever happened to stealth wealth and quiet luxury? In the Slate Plus episode: The MAGA Blue Collar Obsession  Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary in the race for New York City mayor.  Felix Salmon, Emily Peck and Elizabeth Spiers discuss the alarmist reactions from business leaders to the Mamdani's win and why he's hardly the threat to capitalism they make him out to be. Then, Trump has turned his sights on Jay Powell once again, threatening to prematurely name his successor for Fed Chair. The hosts break down why this “shadow chair” tactic is unlikely to work. And finally, mega-billionaire Jeff Bezos is finally marrying his beloved Lauren Sanchez in an over-the-top, star-studded wedding in Venice. Whatever happened to stealth wealth and quiet luxury? In the Slate Plus episode: The MAGA Blue Collar Obsession  Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary in the race for New York City mayor.  Felix Salmon, Emily Peck and Elizabeth Spiers discuss the alarmist reactions from business leaders to the Mamdani's win and why he's hardly the threat to capitalism they make him out to be. Then, Trump has turned his sights on Jay Powell once again, threatening to prematurely name his successor for Fed Chair. The hosts break down why this “shadow chair” tactic is unlikely to work. And finally, mega-billionaire Jeff Bezos is finally marrying his beloved Lauren Sanchez in an over-the-top, star-studded wedding in Venice. Whatever happened to stealth wealth and quiet luxury? In the Slate Plus episode: The MAGA Blue Collar Obsession  Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Jay Powell to lower interest rates. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) reacts to Powell's testimony and the Fed's next move. Warren discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation and the state of the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s revamped vaccine panel has begun reviewing long-approved U.S. vaccines. Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb shares his thoughts on the CDC's new advisory board and the future of vaccine policy. Plus, the latest on President Trump's legal battle with Paramount and are crypto mortgages in our future? Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 16:28Dr. Scott Gottlieb - 35:16 Sen. Elizabeth Warren, @SenWarrenDr. Scott Gottlieb, @ScottGottliebMDBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkZach Vallese, @zachvallese

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Jay Powell testifying on the Hill and the New York City mayoral primary. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

President Donald Trump has called US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell “very dumb, hardheaded” and a “numbskull” for not lowering interest rates. But for some reason, people still want Powell's job. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong look at the contenders. Also, they go long restaurant inflation and community gardening. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On today's podcast: 1) President Trump declares a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but Israel is accusing Iran of breaching it. President Trump declared the ceasefire after a night of attacks, saying Iran had "gotten it out of their system" and thanking Tehran for giving early notice of their missile strike on a US air base in Qatar. Israel agreed to the truce as long as Iran did not launch further attacks, and the Iranian government signaled it would abide by those terms, according to a senior White House official. 2) Voters in New York head to the polls for the Democratic Mayoral Primary. Polls open at 6 am on Tuesday and voters will choose from 11 candidates who are running for the official Democratic ticket. Surveys show the contest is expected to come down to former Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York State Assembly member, Zohran Mamdani. 3) President Trump blasts Jay Powell again hours before the Fed chair speaks to Congress. Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee this week, explaining why interest rates will likely remain steady until at least September. In a post on social media, President Trump says he hopes Congress b"really works" Powell over for not lowering rates already.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Note: A version of this episode first ran in 2023.Every year, the U.S. government spends more money than it takes in. In order to fund all that spending, the country takes on debt. Congress has the power to limit how much debt the U.S. takes on. Once we reach that limit, Congress has a few options so that the government keeps paying its bills: Raise the debt limit, suspend it, or eliminate it entirely. Which is daunting, because if lawmakers don't figure something out in time, the ramifications for the global economy could be huge. Shai Akabas, of the Bipartisan Policy Center, has become something of the go-to expert in calculating the exact date America would hit the wall and not be able to pay all its debts. This day is so terrifying it has a special name, the X-Date. Today's episode is about how Akabas and Jay Powell — long before he became chair of the Federal Reserve — worked to create a system to determine the X-Date with the hope of helping us all never reach it.We also have an update on this year's looming X-Date, which could arrive as soon as this summer. Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

In this episode of Soar Financially, Jim Iuorio returns to break down the hidden cracks in the U.S. economy, why inflation isn't done yet, and what's really going on with gold, silver, and the dollar. He explains why central banks are piling into gold, how the Fed's credibility is on the line, and whether the U.S. dollar is still the “safe haven” it once was. From bond auctions to tariffs, and stagflation to Bitcoin, Jim shares his unfiltered view of the chaos ahead.#gold #marketcrash #iran ------------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------

Israel and Iran are at war, but markets have yet to freak out. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin dig into what's happening with oil, the dollar and gold — and what Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell will say following this week's FOMC meeting. Also, they go long New York pizza and golden telephones. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the latest Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, their discussion focuses on takeaways from recent data, evidence that the neutral fed funds rate is higher, and issues related to Jay Powell's successor as Fed chair. (Note: This podcast was recorded on June 11th after the release of the May CPI report.)

David Rosenberg says the U.S. recession isn't coming, it's already here. In this urgent interview with Trey Reik (Part I of II), Rosenberg explains how trillions in post-COVID stimulus masked economic pain, why that fiscal support is now gone, and how Wall Street is misreading the signals. He breaks down the Fed's biggest policy errors, including Jay Powell's obsession with legacy over leadership. Rosenberg warns that the Fed is ignoring its own Beige Book and that both soft and hard data now point clearly to contraction. From consumer stress and housing unaffordability to labor market weakness and collapsing business investment, the red flags are multiplying. Key topics discussed: Why Rosenberg thinks the recession has already started The Fed's credibility crisis and Powell's “legacy problem” How government stimulus distorted the economy Rising uncertainty from trade and tariffs Housing and labor market red flags The only sector still showing strength: AI and data centers Why Treasuries are his top conviction trade This is Part I of a 2-part interview. Part II will be released next Monday. Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss it! Volatility got you concerned? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/45aIwsZ Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Chapters: 1:02 - The Last Time Rosenberg Was Bullish, and What Changed 5:55 - 2022-2023: The Recession That Never Came. What Went Wrong? 19:47 - Soft Data Says GDP Is Shrinking 26:07 - Are the Job Numbers Real… or a Mirage? 33:03 - Powell's Fed: Legacy or Liability? 38:26 - Was 2021's QE the Biggest Policy Mistake Ever? Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Economy #Recession #FederalReserve #InterestRates #DavidRosenberg #Markets #Stocks #Bonds #Treasuries #Macro ________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All guests join us on the Farm Bureau Insurance guest line, and we are LIVE from the BankPlus Studio! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In March, Alvaro Bedoya and Rebecca Kelly Slaughter, two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, were fired from their jobs by the Trump administration. They say this was done illegally and are challenging their dismissals. Michela talks with Bedoya about what happened, and why he thinks businesses should be concerned. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Trump's move to fire us is a terrible warning for the US economyTwo Democrats on US antitrust panel say they were ‘illegally fired' by Donald TrumpCould Donald Trump fire Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Follow Alvaro Bedoya on X (@BedoyaFTC). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is itself shifting to recession economics.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/bessent-says-two-year-treasuries-are-signaling-fed-should-cutBloomberg Understanding the Unlikely Saudi Push for Lower Oil Priceshttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/opec-puzzle-understanding-the-saudi-push-for-lower-oil-pricesCNN McDonald's just had its worst quarter since Covid. It said customers are getting nervoushttps://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week: Trump has reversed his stance on Jay Powell and his extreme tariffs on China. Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers discuss Trump's backtrack on his threat to fire the Fed chair as well as his recent concession that his 145% tariffs on China aren't sustainable. Then, the hosts weigh in on the growing trend of film and television productions moving out of California in search of budget breaks, as reported by The New York Times. And finally, the ice bucket challenge is back. The hosts debate the efficacy of viral awareness campaigns.  In the Slate Plus episode: Junk fees have been vanquished! Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Trump has reversed his stance on Jay Powell and his extreme tariffs on China. Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers discuss Trump's backtrack on his threat to fire the Fed chair as well as his recent concession that his 145% tariffs on China aren't sustainable. Then, the hosts weigh in on the growing trend of film and television productions moving out of California in search of budget breaks, as reported by The New York Times. And finally, the ice bucket challenge is back. The hosts debate the efficacy of viral awareness campaigns.  In the Slate Plus episode: Junk fees have been vanquished! Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Trump has reversed his stance on Jay Powell and his extreme tariffs on China. Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers discuss Trump's backtrack on his threat to fire the Fed chair as well as his recent concession that his 145% tariffs on China aren't sustainable. Then, the hosts weigh in on the growing trend of film and television productions moving out of California in search of budget breaks, as reported by The New York Times. And finally, the ice bucket challenge is back. The hosts debate the efficacy of viral awareness campaigns.  In the Slate Plus episode: Junk fees have been vanquished! Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Just a few weeks ago, US President Donald Trump was ready to levy tariffs on basically every nation. Today, many of those tariffs have been paused or tempered. Additionally, this week he promised he will not be firing Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, despite his earlier criticism. Should we expect more backstepping from Trump in the face of economic data? And what do the voters think of it all? FT economics editor Sam Fleming joins alongside Jon McHenry, vice-president of the conservative pollster North Star Opinion Research. Mentioned in this podcast:Trump claims to have received call from Xi Jinping and to have cut ‘200 deals' on tradeDonald Trump says he has ‘no intention' of firing Jay PowellSign up for the FT's Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wall Street stocks dropped as President Donald Trump attacked Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, Pope Francis passed away on Monday after leading the Catholic Church for 12 years, and more than half of nearly 1,500 business leaders support a shift to a renewables-based electricity system. Plus, Europe is now seeking to take advantage of China's electric vehicle manufacturing expertise.Mentioned in this podcast:US stocks and dollar sink as Trump renews attacks on Fed chair PowellPope Francis dies aged 88Obituary: Pope Francis, reformer of modern Catholicism, 1936-2025Europe helped teach China to make cars. Now the tables are turningCompanies make plans to shift to green energy despite Trump-era rollbacks, survey showsThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Katie McMurran, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week: Trump isn't happy with Fed chair Jay Powell's take on his tariffs. Felix Salmon, Elizabeth Spiers and guest host Cardiff Garcia discuss the economic reasoning for why Powell is resisting the president's demands to lower rates and what would happen if Trump finds a legal way to fire him. Then, the Trump administration is both gutting the IRS and potentially weaponizing it against Harvard. The hosts discuss the consequences of politicizing the agency. Finally, Trump's trade war keeps escalating as China refuses to back down. Is there any chance for a good outcome? In the Slate Plus episode: Elon Musk's Baby Brood Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Trump isn't happy with Fed chair Jay Powell's take on his tariffs. Felix Salmon, Elizabeth Spiers and guest host Cardiff Garcia discuss the economic reasoning for why Powell is resisting the president's demands to lower rates and what would happen if Trump finds a legal way to fire him. Then, the Trump administration is both gutting the IRS and potentially weaponizing it against Harvard. The hosts discuss the consequences of politicizing the agency. Finally, Trump's trade war keeps escalating as China refuses to back down. Is there any chance for a good outcome? In the Slate Plus episode: Elon Musk's Baby Brood Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Trump isn't happy with Fed chair Jay Powell's take on his tariffs. Felix Salmon, Elizabeth Spiers and guest host Cardiff Garcia discuss the economic reasoning for why Powell is resisting the president's demands to lower rates and what would happen if Trump finds a legal way to fire him. Then, the Trump administration is both gutting the IRS and potentially weaponizing it against Harvard. The hosts discuss the consequences of politicizing the agency. Finally, Trump's trade war keeps escalating as China refuses to back down. Is there any chance for a good outcome? In the Slate Plus episode: Elon Musk's Baby Brood Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tariff turmoil is in full swing. The Trump White House spent the weekend staying on message and ensuring that their were no cracks in the facade. NLW covers the market's reaction, and whether big poppa Jay Powell can fix it. Sponsored by: Ledger Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors The Breakdown podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world's crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now on Ledger.com. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

As market turmoil continues, our global economists give their view on the ramifications of the Trump administration's tariffs, and how central banks across key regions might react.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's, Global Chief Economist, and today we're going to be talking tariffs and what they mean for the global economy.It's Monday, April 7th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: It's 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And it's 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: And so, I'm here with our global economists from around the world: Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. So, let's jump into it. Let me go around first and ask each of you, what is the top question that you are getting from investors around the world?Chetan?Chetan Ahya: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Jens?Jens Eisenschmidt: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Mike?Michael Gapen: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: All right. Well, that seems clear. Before we get into the likely effects of the tariffs, maybe each of you could just sketch for me where you were before tariffs were announced. Chetan, let me start with you. What was your outlook for the Chinese economy before the latest round of tariff announcements?Chetan Ahya: Well Seth, working with our U.S. public policy team, we were already assuming a 15-percentage point increase on tariffs on imports from China. And China also was going through some domestic challenges in terms of high levels of debt, excess capacities, and deflation. And so, combining both the factors, we were assuming China's growth will slow on Q4 by Q4 basis last year – from 5.4 percent to close to 4 percent this year.Jens, what about Europe? Before these broad-based tariffs, how were you thinking about the European economy?Jens Eisenschmidt: We had penciled in a slight recovery, not really getting us much beyond 1 percent. Backdrop here, still rising real wages. We had some tariffs in here, on steel, aluminum; in cars, much again a bit more of a beefed-up version if you want, of the 18 tariffs – but not much more than that. And then, of course, we had the German fiscal expansion that helped our outlook to sustain this positive growth rates into 2026.Seth Carpenter: Mike, for you. You also had thought that there were going to be some tariffs at some point before this last round of tariffs. Maybe you can tell us what you had in mind before last week's announcements.Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth. We had a lot of tariffs on China. The effective rate rising to say 35 to 40 percent. But as Jens just mentioned, outside of that, we had some on steel and aluminum, and autos with Europe, but not much beyond that. So, an effective tariff rate for the U.S. that reached maybe 8 to 9 percent.We thought that would gradually weigh on the economy. We had growth at around 1.5 percent this year and 1 percent next year. And the disinflation process stopping – meaning inflation finishes the year at around 2.8 core PCE, roughly where it is now. So, a gradual slowdown from tariff implementation.Seth Carpenter: Alright, so a little bit built in. You knew there was going to be something, but boy, I guess I have to say, judging from market reactions, the world was surprised at the magnitude of things. So, what's changed in your mind? It seems like tariffs have got to push down the outlook for growth and up the out outlook for inflation. Is that about right? And can you sketch for us how this new news is going to affect the outlook?Michael Gapen: Sure. So instead of effective tariff rates of 8 to 9 percent, we're looking at effective tariff rates, maybe as high as 22 percent.Seth Carpenter: Oh, that's a lot.Michael Gapen: Yeah. So more than twice what we were expecting. Obviously, some of that may get negotiated down. Seth Carpenter: And would you say that's the highest tariff rate we've seen in a while?Michael Gapen: At least a century. If we were to a 1.5 percent on growth before, it's pretty easy to revise that down, maybe even a full percentage point, right?So you're, it's a tax on consumption and a tariff rate that high is going to pull down consumer spending. It's also going to lead to even much higher inflation than we were expecting. So rather than 2.8 for core PCE year-on-year, I wouldn't be surprised if we get something even in the high threes or perhaps even low fours.So, it pushes the economy, we would say, at least closer to a recession. If not, you're getting closer to the proverbial coin toss because there are the potential for a lot of indirect effects on business confidence. Do they spend less and hire less? And obviously we're seeing asset markets melt down. I think it's fair to describe it that way. And you could have negative wealth effects on the upper income consumers. So, the direct effects get you very modest growth a little bit above zero. It's the indirect effects that we're worried about.Seth Carpenter: Wow, that's quite a statement. So, a substantial slowdown for the U.S. Flirting with no growth. And then given all the uncertainty, the possibility that the U.S. actually goes into recession, a real possibility there. That feels like a big call.Jens, if the U.S. could be on the verge of recession with uncertainty and all of that, what are you thinking about Europe now? You had talked about Europe before the tariffs growing around 1 percent. That's not that far away from zero. So, what are you thinking about the outlook for Europe once we layer in these additional tariffs? And I guess every bit is important. Do you see retaliatory tariffs coming from the European Union?Jens Eisenschmidt: No, I think there are at least three parts here. I totally agree with that framing. So, first of all, we have the tariffs and then we have some estimates what they might mean, which, just suppose what we have heard last week sticks, would get us already in some countries into recessionary territory; and for the aggregate Euro area, not that far from it. So, we think effects could range between 60 and 120 basis points of less growth. Now that to some extent, incorporates retaliation. And so, the question is how much retaliation we might expect here. This is a key question we get from clients. I'd say we get something; that seems, sure.At the same time, it seems that Europe weighs a response that is taking into account all the constraints that are in the equation. After all the U.S. is an ally also in security concerns. You don't wanna necessarily endanger that good relationship. So that will for sure play a role. And then the U.S. has a services surplus with Europe, so it's also likely to be a response in the space of services regulation, which is not necessarily inflationary on the European side, and not necessarily growth impacting so much.But, you know, be it as it may. This is going to be down from here, for sure. And then the other thing just mentioned by Michael, I mean there is clearly a read across from a slower U.S. growth environment that will also not help growth in the Euro area. So, all being told it could very well mean, if we get the U.S. close to recession, that the Euro area is flirting with recession too.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Chetan Ahya: Seth, can I interrupt you on this one? I just wanted to add the perspective on retaliatory tariffs from China. What we had actually originally billed was that China would take up a retaliatory response, which would be less than be less than proportionate, just like the last time. But considering that China has actually, mashed U.S. reciprocal tariffs, it makes us feel that it's very unlikely that a deal will be done anytime soon.Seth Carpenter: Okay. So then how would you revise your view for what's going on with China?Chetan Ahya: Yeah, so as I mentioned earlier, we had already built in some downside but with these reciprocal tariffs, we see another 50 to 100 [basis points] downside to China's growth, depending upon how strong is the policy stimulus.Seth Carpenter: So, at some point, I suspect we're going to start having a discussion about what it really means to have a global recession, and markets are going to start to look to central banks.So, Mike, let me turn to you. Jay Powell spoke recently. He repeated that he is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Can you talk to me about the challenges that the Fed is facing right now?Michael Gapen: The Fed is faced with this problem where tariffs mean it's missing on both sides of its mandate, where inflation is rising and there's downside risk to the economy.So how do you respond to that?Really what Powell said is it's going to be tough for us to look through this rise in inflation and pre-emptively ease. So, for the moment they're on hold and they're just going to evaluate how the economy responds. If there's no recession, it likely means the Fed's on hold for a very long time. If we get negative job growth, if you will, or job cuts, then the Fed may be moving to ease policy. But right now, Powell doesn't know which one of those is going to materialize first.Seth Carpenter: Alright Mike. So, I understand what you're saying. Inflation going higher, growth going lower. Really awkward position for the Fed, and I think central banks around the world really have to weigh the two sides of these sorts of things, which one's going to dominate…Jens Eisenschmidt: Exactly. Seth, may I jump in here because I think that's a perfect segue to the ECB; which I was thinking a lot about that – just recently coming back from the U.S. – how different the position really is here. So, the ECB currently is on the way to neutral, at least as we have always thought as a good way of framing their way. Inflation is falling to target. Now with all the risks that we have mentioned, there's a clear risk we see. Inflation going below 2 percent, already by mid this year – if oil prices were to stay as low as they are and with the euro appreciation that we have seen.The tariffs scare in terms of the inflationary impact from tariffs, that's much less clear. Now, whether that's really something to worry about simply because what you typically see with these tariffs – it's actually a depreciation of the exchange rate, which we haven't seen. So, we think there is a clear risk, downside risk to our path; at least that we have an anticipation. A quicker rate cutting cycle by the ECB. And potentially if the growth outlook that we have just outlined all these risks really materializes, or threatens is more likely to materialize, then the cuts could also be deeper.Seth Carpenter: That's super tricky as well though, because they're going to have to deal with all the same uncertainty. I will say this brings up to me the Bank of Japan because it was the one major central bank that was going the opposite direction before all of this. They were hiking while the other central banks were cutting.So, Chetan, let me turn to you. Do you think the Bank of Japan's gonna be able to follow through on the additional rate hike that you all had already had in your forecast?Chetan Ahya: Yes Seth. I think Bank of Japan will have a difficult time. Japan is exposed to direct effect of 24 percent reciprocal tariffs. It will see downside from global trade slowdown, which will weigh on its exports and yen appreciation will weigh on its inflation outlook. Hence, unless if U.S. removes tariffs very quickly in the near term, we see the risk that BOJ will pause instead of hiking as we had assumed in our earlier base case.Seth Carpenter: Well, this is a good place to stop. Let me see if I can summarize the conversations we've had so far. Before this latest round of tariffs had been announced, we had thought there'd be some tariffs, and we had looked for a bit of slowdown in the U.S. and in Europe and in China – the three major economies in the world. But these new rounds of tariffs have added a lot to that slowdown pushing the, the global economy right up to the edge of recession. And what that means as well is for central banks, they're left in at least something of a bind. The Bank of Japan though, the one major central bank that had been hiking, boy, there's a really good chance that that rate hike gets derailed.Seth Carpenter: Well, thank you for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.