Podcast appearances and mentions of Jay Powell

Vertical Research Advisory

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2025 21:55

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Powell's speech, the ECB rate cut, and various earnings. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

zoom market powell remains briefing ecb jay powell

Markets SINK In Reaction to Jay Powell Speech

Watchdog on Wall Street

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2025 4:13

Chris reacts to Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's Economic Club of Chicago speech, where Powell warned that Trump's tariffs could spark temporary or persistent inflation and even stagflation, straining the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Markowski critiques the uncertainty around a 90-day tariff pause, questions June rate cut expectations, and highlights the market's sell-off, slamming Trump's pressure on the Fed as reckless while noting Powell's commitment to anchoring long-term inflation expectations. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

money donald trump chicago investing economy speech markets fed powell stocks sink economic club jay powell markowski federal reserve chair jay powell

La Bce taglia i tassi di 25 punti base, al 2,25%

Focus economia

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2025

Un nuovo taglio dei tassi, come ampiamente previsto. Una nuova, preoccupata, diagnosi dell economia. La Banca centrale europea ha ridotto il costo ufficiale del credito di 25 punti base per la settima volta da giugno portando il tasso sui depositi, quello di riferimento, al 2,25% dal 2,50%, il tasso sulle operazioni di rifinanziamento principali al 2,40% dal 2,65% e quello sui prestiti marginali al 2,65% dal 2,90%. La decisione è stata unanime, e se sono state discusse «ipoteticamente» diverse opzioni - ha spiegato in conferenza stampa la presidente Christine Lagarde - nessuno ha proposto un taglio più incisivo. Soprattutto è stata modificata la diagnosi dell'economia. Ormai l'unico riferimento alle pressioni sui prezzi, nel comunicato ufficiale, è l'«elevata crescita delle retribuzioni» che è però parzialmente assorbita dalla moderazione dei profitti: la dinamica dei prezzi, come già a marzo, è ormai orientata a tornare all'obiettivo del 2% su basi sostenibili. «Anche l'inflazione dei servizi ha segnato una marcata attenuazione negli ultimi mesi», è l'aggiunta importante ai comunicati delle precedenti riunioni: era tassello mancante, e atteso, nel processo di disinflazione. Non sembra quindi esserci più bisogno, nelle parole della Bce, di una politica monetaria restrittiva: un tasso al 2,25% è del resto in un'area compatibile con il tasso nominale neutrale (difficilmente individuabile). Lagarde ha però ricordato che il concetto di tasso neutrale è rilevante «in un'economia senza shocks», e non è il caso attuale. Anche in questa occasione Lagarde non ha spiegato meglio in che modo è "pronta a utilizzare gli strumenti a sua disposizione" ora che l'incertezza sta terremotando i mercati. La Banca centrale europea continuerà a seguire il suo approccio: deciderà i suoi prossimi passi riunione dopo riunione», sulla base delle prospettive di inflazione. La politica monetaria, ha aggiunto Lagarde, dovrà essere «pronta», e quindi «attenta a tutti gli sviluppi e in particolare a quelli dei nuovi shocks», e «agile», per avere «un approccio coerente». A una domanda sulle accuse di Donald Trump a Jerome Powell, Lagarde ha detto di avere «molto rispetto per il mio stimato collega e amico Jay Powell e noi abbiamo un solido rapporto tra banchieri centrali decisivo per avere una solida infrastruttura finanziaria». Questo rapporto continuerà «in modo imperterrito e senza cambiamenti, ne sono sicura». Intanto l'euro, che continua a veleggiare intorno 1,13 sul dollaro terremotato da Trump, toglie pressioni inflazionistiche dal campo per la Bce, ma se sale troppo si aggiunge ai dazi nel togliere competitività all'export europeo. Interviene per commentare la notizia Donato Masciandaro, docente politiche monetarie università Bocconi, editorialista Il Sole 24 Ore.Dfp: Giorgetti, quadro soggetto anche a rischi positivi. Ma per Upb 68mila occupati a rischio con i daziSi sono tenute questa mattina le audizioni alle commissioni riunite Bilancio di Camera e Senato sul Documento di finanza pubblica, che andrà inviato alla Commissione europea entro il 30 aprile dopo l'esame del Parlamento. In commissione è intervenuto anche il ministro dell'Economia, Giancarlo Giorgetti, che ha spiegato: tutte le simulazioni contenute nel Dfp "sono basate su ipotesi più sfavorevoli e pertanto forniscono indicazioni in senso peggiorativo sulla crescita e finanza pubblica. Ciò nonostante, sembra prospettarsi uno scenario meno avverso di quello messo in conto nelle previsioni ufficiali; più favorevole in termini sia di possibile esito finale della struttura dei dazi a livello internazionale, sia di variabili esogene (quali i prezzi dell'energia e i tassi d'interesse) che condizionano la crescita. Il quadro macroeconomico è pertanto soggetto anche a rischi positivi". A mettere però in guardia sull'esito della guerra commerciale in atto ci ha pensato la presidente dell'Upb Lilia Cavallari che in audizione sul Documento di finanza pubblica ha spiegato: "I dazi Usa impatteranno, tenendo conto anche degli effetti indotti, su quasi tutti i settori dell'economia italiana, con una perdita a livello aggregato di valore aggiunto nell'ordine di tre decimi di punto percentuale". E ha aggiunto: "In termini di occupazione l'effetto è quantificabile in circa 68 mila occupati totali in meno". A risentirne maggiormente, secondo le simulazioni dell'Upb, sarebbero i settori farmaceutico, attività estrattive, automotive, prodotti chimici, attività metallurgiche e fabbricazione di macchinari. Upb, insieme alla Corte dei Conti, denuncia anche che le informazioni del Dfp sono incomplete e forniscono un quadro limitato. Per una disamina del quadro offerto dal Dfp, spiega la Corte dei Conti, "manca non solo lo sviluppo programmatico (inciso dalla difficoltà di definire al momento una ricostruzione puntuale delle necessità in gioco), ma anche (e soprattutto) un dettaglio informativo determinante su diversi capitoli della politica finanziaria di breve e medio periodo: sono limitate le indicazioni sulla composizione della spesa per settori, non vi sono elementi e indicazioni adeguate sulle modifiche su cui si sta lavorando per il ridisegno del Pnrr, mancano indicazioni sulle scelte che ci si propone di assumere sul fronte della spesa per il settore della difesa. Elementi che rendono difficile valutare la tenuta del quadro complessivo e la sua coerenza con quelle che sono le priorità dell'azione di governo". Ne parliamo con Gianni Trovati, de Il Sole 24 Ore.Meloni alla Casa BiancaLa Casa Bianca ha reso noto il programma dell'incontro di oggi alla Casa Bianca del presidente Donald Trump con la premier italiana Giorgia Meloni. Alle 12.05 (le 18.05 in Italia) è previsto un lunch nel cabinet room tra i due leader (chiuso alla stampa), quindi un'ora dopo il bilaterale nello Studio Ovale (con il pool dei reporter della Casa Bianca e i giornalisti italiani). Stamattina Trump ha dichiarato: "Ho avuto un colloquio molto produttivo con la presidente del Messico ieri. E ho incontrato i rappresentati al commercio giapponesi, è stato un incontro produttivo. Tutti i Paesi, inclusa la Cina, vogliono incontrarci. Oggi l'Italia". In attesa dell'incontro un alto dirigente Usa durante una call sulla visita alla Casa Bianca della premier italiana ha spiegato che Trump e Meloni hanno una "very special relationship" è "un partner economico chiave per gli Stati Uniti, uno dei principali mercati Ue per beni e servizi americani, e ospita importanti installazioni militari statunitensi e Nato. L'importanza della lunga relazione tra gli Stati Uniti e l'Italia non può essere sottovalutata". Lo stesso dirigente ha spiegato che: Donald Trump e la premier Giorgia Meloni parleranno di dazi ma la visita non è concentrata solo sulle tariffe. Il Washington Post, il foglio della capitale Usa, stamattina ha titolato: «L Europa affida le sue speranze commerciali a Meloni, la sussurratrice di Trump». È la terza volta che Giorgia Meloni siederà nello Studio Ovale, ma è come se fosse la prima. Una prima assoluta, perché - inutile girarci intorno - incrocia interessi globali e non solo bilaterali. La premier italiana, a quanto trapela, punta a facilitare un incontro tra Trump e la presidente della Commissione Ue, Ursula von der Leyen, puntando su investimenti negli Usa e sull acquisto di gas naturale liquefatto. E dall'altra intende proporre uno scudo militare a Kiev. Proprio ieri Meloni e von der Leyen si sono sentite al telefono: Bruxelles ha ribadito che sui dazi la competenza negoziale resta all Ue. Intanto l'Unione si prepara all'eventualità di non trovare alcun accordo sul tema, lavorando alle contro-tariffe doganali nei confronti degli Usa e guardando alla Cina. Parliamo con l'inviato a Washington Vincenzo Miglietta, Radiocor.

VRA Investing Podcast: Powell's Comments, Trump's Tactics & The Tariff Effect - Kip Herriage

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2025 16:17

In today's episode, Kip takes us through a volatile and eye-opening day on Wall Street, where big losses in the major indexes were led by sharp declines in semiconductors and tech. From Nvidia chip bans to a disappointing earnings report from ASML, today's market action was driven by a perfect storm of bad news and mounting uncertainty over tariffs. Kip shares his take on recent comments by Jay Powell, his concerns about the economic outlook, and what the latest moves in gold, silver, and bitcoin might be telling us about where things are headed.

donald trump wall street tactics powell tariffs asml jay powell investing podcast

Swamp Notes: The Federal Reserve's tariff dilemma

FT News Briefing

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 12, 2025 17:49

US President Donald Trump's global trade war has made a mess for the Federal Reserve. Despite an encouraging US consumer price index report this week, there are major concerns about the inflationary nature of Trump's tariffs. Meanwhile, the Fed has cut growth forecasts. And if all that wasn't enough, Trump is breathing down chair Jay Powell's neck to cut interest rates. The FT's US economics editor Claire Jones and economics commentator Chris Giles explain why the central bank is caught in a difficult position.Mentioned in this podcast:Jay Powell's tariff dilemma: defend the economy or contain inflationAlphaville: An emergency rate cut from the Fed?US inflation falls more than expected to 2.4% in MarchFederal Reserve ‘absolutely' ready to help stabilise market if needed, top official saysSign up for the FT's newsletter Chris Giles on Central BanksSign up for the FT's Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

donald trump dilemma acast fed federal reserve tariffs swamp jay powell claire jones chris giles cheryl brumley

4-11-25 Hour 2: KeyShawn Murphy.. Chris Lemonis.. The Masters and more! Plus, Jay Powell joins us to talk Ms State Baseball and more!

live masters baseball joins us jay powell keyshawn farm bureau insurance chris lemonis

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2025 50:53

All guests join us on the Farm Bureau Insurance guest line, and we are LIVE from the BankPlus Studio! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

4-11-25 Jay Powell - Mississippi State legend: Joins the show to talk some Ms State Baseball. How does he see the rest of the season playing out?

live playing baseball mississippi state jay powell farm bureau insurance

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2025 30:42

All guests join us on the Farm Bureau Insurance guest line, and we are LIVE from the BankPlus Studio! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Worst 3 Days in Stocks Since Oct 1987

Long Reads Live

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2025 13:08

Tariff turmoil is in full swing. The Trump White House spent the weekend staying on message and ensuring that their were no cracks in the facade. NLW covers the market's reaction, and whether big poppa Jay Powell can fix it. Sponsored by: Ledger Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors The Breakdown podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world's crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now on Ledger.com. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

stocks tariffs breakdown trump white house jay powell nlw

Tariff Roundtable: Global Economy on the Brink of Recession?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 7, 2025 11:53

As market turmoil continues, our global economists give their view on the ramifications of the Trump administration's tariffs, and how central banks across key regions might react.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's, Global Chief Economist, and today we're going to be talking tariffs and what they mean for the global economy.It's Monday, April 7th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: It's 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And it's 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: And so, I'm here with our global economists from around the world: Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. So, let's jump into it. Let me go around first and ask each of you, what is the top question that you are getting from investors around the world?Chetan?Chetan Ahya: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Jens?Jens Eisenschmidt: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Mike?Michael Gapen: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: All right. Well, that seems clear. Before we get into the likely effects of the tariffs, maybe each of you could just sketch for me where you were before tariffs were announced. Chetan, let me start with you. What was your outlook for the Chinese economy before the latest round of tariff announcements?Chetan Ahya: Well Seth, working with our U.S. public policy team, we were already assuming a 15-percentage point increase on tariffs on imports from China. And China also was going through some domestic challenges in terms of high levels of debt, excess capacities, and deflation. And so, combining both the factors, we were assuming China's growth will slow on Q4 by Q4 basis last year – from 5.4 percent to close to 4 percent this year.Jens, what about Europe? Before these broad-based tariffs, how were you thinking about the European economy?Jens Eisenschmidt: We had penciled in a slight recovery, not really getting us much beyond 1 percent. Backdrop here, still rising real wages. We had some tariffs in here, on steel, aluminum; in cars, much again a bit more of a beefed-up version if you want, of the 18 tariffs – but not much more than that. And then, of course, we had the German fiscal expansion that helped our outlook to sustain this positive growth rates into 2026.Seth Carpenter: Mike, for you. You also had thought that there were going to be some tariffs at some point before this last round of tariffs. Maybe you can tell us what you had in mind before last week's announcements.Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth. We had a lot of tariffs on China. The effective rate rising to say 35 to 40 percent. But as Jens just mentioned, outside of that, we had some on steel and aluminum, and autos with Europe, but not much beyond that. So, an effective tariff rate for the U.S. that reached maybe 8 to 9 percent.We thought that would gradually weigh on the economy. We had growth at around 1.5 percent this year and 1 percent next year. And the disinflation process stopping – meaning inflation finishes the year at around 2.8 core PCE, roughly where it is now. So, a gradual slowdown from tariff implementation.Seth Carpenter: Alright, so a little bit built in. You knew there was going to be something, but boy, I guess I have to say, judging from market reactions, the world was surprised at the magnitude of things. So, what's changed in your mind? It seems like tariffs have got to push down the outlook for growth and up the out outlook for inflation. Is that about right? And can you sketch for us how this new news is going to affect the outlook?Michael Gapen: Sure. So instead of effective tariff rates of 8 to 9 percent, we're looking at effective tariff rates, maybe as high as 22 percent.Seth Carpenter: Oh, that's a lot.Michael Gapen: Yeah. So more than twice what we were expecting. Obviously, some of that may get negotiated down. Seth Carpenter: And would you say that's the highest tariff rate we've seen in a while?Michael Gapen: At least a century. If we were to a 1.5 percent on growth before, it's pretty easy to revise that down, maybe even a full percentage point, right?So you're, it's a tax on consumption and a tariff rate that high is going to pull down consumer spending. It's also going to lead to even much higher inflation than we were expecting. So rather than 2.8 for core PCE year-on-year, I wouldn't be surprised if we get something even in the high threes or perhaps even low fours.So, it pushes the economy, we would say, at least closer to a recession. If not, you're getting closer to the proverbial coin toss because there are the potential for a lot of indirect effects on business confidence. Do they spend less and hire less? And obviously we're seeing asset markets melt down. I think it's fair to describe it that way. And you could have negative wealth effects on the upper income consumers. So, the direct effects get you very modest growth a little bit above zero. It's the indirect effects that we're worried about.Seth Carpenter: Wow, that's quite a statement. So, a substantial slowdown for the U.S. Flirting with no growth. And then given all the uncertainty, the possibility that the U.S. actually goes into recession, a real possibility there. That feels like a big call.Jens, if the U.S. could be on the verge of recession with uncertainty and all of that, what are you thinking about Europe now? You had talked about Europe before the tariffs growing around 1 percent. That's not that far away from zero. So, what are you thinking about the outlook for Europe once we layer in these additional tariffs? And I guess every bit is important. Do you see retaliatory tariffs coming from the European Union?Jens Eisenschmidt: No, I think there are at least three parts here. I totally agree with that framing. So, first of all, we have the tariffs and then we have some estimates what they might mean, which, just suppose what we have heard last week sticks, would get us already in some countries into recessionary territory; and for the aggregate Euro area, not that far from it. So, we think effects could range between 60 and 120 basis points of less growth. Now that to some extent, incorporates retaliation. And so, the question is how much retaliation we might expect here. This is a key question we get from clients. I'd say we get something; that seems, sure.At the same time, it seems that Europe weighs a response that is taking into account all the constraints that are in the equation. After all the U.S. is an ally also in security concerns. You don't wanna necessarily endanger that good relationship. So that will for sure play a role. And then the U.S. has a services surplus with Europe, so it's also likely to be a response in the space of services regulation, which is not necessarily inflationary on the European side, and not necessarily growth impacting so much.But, you know, be it as it may. This is going to be down from here, for sure. And then the other thing just mentioned by Michael, I mean there is clearly a read across from a slower U.S. growth environment that will also not help growth in the Euro area. So, all being told it could very well mean, if we get the U.S. close to recession, that the Euro area is flirting with recession too.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Chetan Ahya: Seth, can I interrupt you on this one? I just wanted to add the perspective on retaliatory tariffs from China. What we had actually originally billed was that China would take up a retaliatory response, which would be less than be less than proportionate, just like the last time. But considering that China has actually, mashed U.S. reciprocal tariffs, it makes us feel that it's very unlikely that a deal will be done anytime soon.Seth Carpenter: Okay. So then how would you revise your view for what's going on with China?Chetan Ahya: Yeah, so as I mentioned earlier, we had already built in some downside but with these reciprocal tariffs, we see another 50 to 100 [basis points] downside to China's growth, depending upon how strong is the policy stimulus.Seth Carpenter: So, at some point, I suspect we're going to start having a discussion about what it really means to have a global recession, and markets are going to start to look to central banks.So, Mike, let me turn to you. Jay Powell spoke recently. He repeated that he is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Can you talk to me about the challenges that the Fed is facing right now?Michael Gapen: The Fed is faced with this problem where tariffs mean it's missing on both sides of its mandate, where inflation is rising and there's downside risk to the economy.So how do you respond to that?Really what Powell said is it's going to be tough for us to look through this rise in inflation and pre-emptively ease. So, for the moment they're on hold and they're just going to evaluate how the economy responds. If there's no recession, it likely means the Fed's on hold for a very long time. If we get negative job growth, if you will, or job cuts, then the Fed may be moving to ease policy. But right now, Powell doesn't know which one of those is going to materialize first.Seth Carpenter: Alright Mike. So, I understand what you're saying. Inflation going higher, growth going lower. Really awkward position for the Fed, and I think central banks around the world really have to weigh the two sides of these sorts of things, which one's going to dominate…Jens Eisenschmidt: Exactly. Seth, may I jump in here because I think that's a perfect segue to the ECB; which I was thinking a lot about that – just recently coming back from the U.S. – how different the position really is here. So, the ECB currently is on the way to neutral, at least as we have always thought as a good way of framing their way. Inflation is falling to target. Now with all the risks that we have mentioned, there's a clear risk we see. Inflation going below 2 percent, already by mid this year – if oil prices were to stay as low as they are and with the euro appreciation that we have seen.The tariffs scare in terms of the inflationary impact from tariffs, that's much less clear. Now, whether that's really something to worry about simply because what you typically see with these tariffs – it's actually a depreciation of the exchange rate, which we haven't seen. So, we think there is a clear risk, downside risk to our path; at least that we have an anticipation. A quicker rate cutting cycle by the ECB. And potentially if the growth outlook that we have just outlined all these risks really materializes, or threatens is more likely to materialize, then the cuts could also be deeper.Seth Carpenter: That's super tricky as well though, because they're going to have to deal with all the same uncertainty. I will say this brings up to me the Bank of Japan because it was the one major central bank that was going the opposite direction before all of this. They were hiking while the other central banks were cutting.So, Chetan, let me turn to you. Do you think the Bank of Japan's gonna be able to follow through on the additional rate hike that you all had already had in your forecast?Chetan Ahya: Yes Seth. I think Bank of Japan will have a difficult time. Japan is exposed to direct effect of 24 percent reciprocal tariffs. It will see downside from global trade slowdown, which will weigh on its exports and yen appreciation will weigh on its inflation outlook. Hence, unless if U.S. removes tariffs very quickly in the near term, we see the risk that BOJ will pause instead of hiking as we had assumed in our earlier base case.Seth Carpenter: Well, this is a good place to stop. Let me see if I can summarize the conversations we've had so far. Before this latest round of tariffs had been announced, we had thought there'd be some tariffs, and we had looked for a bit of slowdown in the U.S. and in Europe and in China – the three major economies in the world. But these new rounds of tariffs have added a lot to that slowdown pushing the, the global economy right up to the edge of recession. And what that means as well is for central banks, they're left in at least something of a bind. The Bank of Japan though, the one major central bank that had been hiking, boy, there's a really good chance that that rate hike gets derailed.Seth Carpenter: Well, thank you for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Stop The Fraud, The Next FED Pivot Is Here | Danielle DiMartino Booth

SF Live

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 26, 2025 39:35

FED Pivot in 43 Days?! Danielle DiMartino Booth returns to explain why the Federal Reserve may be forced into an urgent policy shift. In this explosive interview, Danielle calls out the true state of the U.S. economy, reveals the massive housing fraud no one is talking about, and explains why the next recession might already be here — even if the data says otherwise.We cover everything from student loans, consumer debt, and buy now, pay later madness to the hidden risks in the auto loan and real estate markets. Danielle shares why she believes the Fed will be forced into multiple rate cuts in 2025, how Jay Powell's narrative is breaking down, and what it means for investors, households, and the market.#FED #economy #stocks Use our exclusive link to save 20% off your first year of QI Annual Daily Feather Subscription:

Dour Fed, cheery market

Unhedged

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2025 23:17

On Wednesday Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell announced that US interest rates would remain unchanged. But the monetary policy committee is clearly worried that tariffs might slow growth and increase inflation. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter try to figure out why markets weren't worried by what they heard from the Fed. Also they go long Twitter (X… whatever) and short Tesla.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

market tesla acast fed jay powell dour cheery katie martin robert armstrong rob armstrong

Jay Powell SMACKS Down Press in Classy Interview

Watchdog on Wall Street

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2025 6:49

Chris dives into politics and the Federal Reserve, unpacking Jay Powell's latest Q&A. Despite media attempts to pit Powell against Trump's tariffs, he stood firm—economy's solid, unemployment's low, and inflation's easing. Fiscal prudence, not Fed moves, drives lower rates. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

money donald trump news press economy fed powell stocks federal reserve fiscal classy smacks jay powell

Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on the Fed Decision

Bloomberg Talks

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2025 26:52 Transcription Available

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.Federal Reserve officials held their benchmark interest rate steady for a second straight meeting, caught between mounting concerns that the economy is slowing and inflation could remain stubbornly high.Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the high degree of uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s significant policy changes, but repeated the central bank is not in a hurry to adjust borrowing costs. He said officials can wait for greater clarity on the impact of those policies on the economy before acting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

donald trump decision bloomberg federal reserve instant reaction jay powell fed chair jay powell tom keene bloomberg surveillance lisa abramowicz

Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on the Fed Decision

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2025 26:52 Transcription Available

donald trump decision bloomberg federal reserve instant reaction jay powell fed chair jay powell tom keene bloomberg surveillance lisa abramowicz

VRA Investing Podcast: Jay Powell's Optimistic Inflation Outlook Spurs Market Rally Amid Trump Tariff Concerns - Kip Herriage - March 19, 2025

Vertical Research Advisory

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2025 29:19

In today's episode, Kip takes us through the key takeaways from the latest Federal Reserve meeting. He discusses Jay Powell's statements, including a surprising turn on tariffs and inflation expectations for the coming years. Kip provides a deep dive into the market's reaction, highlighting the rally in equities and the performance of commodities like gold, silver, and bitcoin.

donald trump concerns inflation outlook amid san antonio spurs federal reserve tariffs optimistic market rally jay powell investing podcast

Bits + Bips: Trump Has Spread Uncertainty Across All Markets. What's Next? - Ep. 798

Unchained

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 12, 2025 91:55

The markets are a bloodbath. If you're feeling lost in the markets right now, you're not alone. Stocks are getting crushed, bonds are sliding, and crypto isn't escaping the carnage. The question is: why is everything selling off—and where does it go from here? One thing is clear: the next market move is extremely hard to predict. Between Trump's economic policies, inflation worries, and DOGE's cuts, there's a storm of conflicting signals. So, is this pain temporary? Or are we looking at a long trend downward? Sponsors: Bitwise Hosts: James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida Guest: Travis Kling, CIO of Ikigai Asset Management Links Recession? Bloomberg: Trump Says US Economy Faces ‘Transition,' Avoids Recession Call Inflation Bloomberg: Inflation-Linked Bonds Rebound on Trump Tariffs: Credit Weekly DXY FX Empire: US Dollar Forecast: DXY Sinks as Weak Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets, EUR/USD Surges Powell's comments: CNN: Fed Chair Powell says he's not worried about the economy amid Trump's tariff chaos FT: Federal Reserve chief Jay Powell plays down growth worries after jobs report disappoints Bonds: Bloomberg: The Bond Market's Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Trade CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield rises after weaker-than-expected jobs growth Bond yields in Europe and elsewhere are rising Tariffs: Bloomberg: Lutnick Says Trump Sticking to US Aluminum-Steel Tariff Timeline Japan and the carry trade: Japan's 20-Year Government Bond Yield rises to its highest level since 2008. Jeff Park tweeted “Bitcoin is Japan's game now whether you like it or not” - thoughts? FT: Japan seeks tariff reprieve after Donald Trump questions long-standing defence pact China's deflation: Bloomberg: China's Inflation Declines Below Zero for First Time in Year Ukraine War talks: FT: Ukraine seeks to persuade US to resume aid in high-stakes talks Timestamps:

ceo founders donald trump europe japan japanese bitcoin uncertainty spread markets stocks bits cio treasury doge cpi cfa vix research analysts how trump jay powell bips

Global Recession Fears EXPLODE: Stocks Crash, Bond Yields Plummet

donald trump independent acast federal reserve jay powell katie martin atlanta fed robert armstrong chris giles

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2025 19:37

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Stocks plunged, bond yields dropped, the R-word is now the common phrase in the media...Jay Powell says everything is just fine and dandy. Even the President is now cautioning the economy might be going through a "transition" and the markets more and more can't get away from it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bond Market's Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Playhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/the-bond-market-s-trump-trade-is-looking-like-a-recession-tradeBloomberg Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angsthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/us-credit-risk-rises-as-tariffs-job-cuts-stoke-recession-fearsJay Powell in Chicagohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6pZzfv8AQENBC Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock selloff gathers steamhttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-tank-trump-declines-dismiss-recession-risk-rcna195653https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Can the Fed stay independent?

Unhedged

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2025 21:00

President Donald Trump has loudly proclaimed his desire for lower interest rates. Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, responding to persistent inflation, has kept rates higher. And keeps mentioning that he can't be fired. But is this true? Today on the show, the FT's economics commentator Chris Giles joins Katie Martin to discuss an upcoming legal case that might increase the president's ability to fire the heads of agencies. Also we go short the Atlanta Fed and long vowels. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

542: A Home Loan Where No Monthly Payments are Required

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 24, 2025 46:08

Keith Weinhold and Caeli Ridge discuss the benefits of a type of loan that combines mortgage and banking features. This loan allows deposits to reduce principal first, every deposit acts like a payment, minimizing interest accrual. And can be used for cash-out refinancing, providing flexibility and potential tax benefits. Hear about the importance and the difference between open-ended and closed-ended loans. If you pay down the loan balance over time, you can have a spread that allows you to access that equity without having to requalify or pay additional closing costs. Resources: Explore the loan simulator at RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/542 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai Keith Weinhold 0:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold a discussion about the future mortgage rate direction. Then there's a property loan type where you don't have to make any monthly payments, and if you do make a payment, it all goes toward principal, and nothing is lost to interest. It can save you lots in interest expense over the life of the loan today on get rich education. since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com Corey Coates 1:13 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold 1:29 Welcome to GRE from flaccid County, Oregon to Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back in for another wealth building week here at get rich education, just another shaved mammal with the microphone here, I have a real estate analogy for you. Growing up, my dad told me, whatever you do, do it well. And that was broad guidance for life. I like things that are easy to remember. Our simple home in Appalachian Pennsylvania was headed with a wood fired stove, so we couldn't just turn a dial and feeding the stove with those logs took time and work. It was a family effort. Dad split the firewood. My chore was to regularly move firewood from the wood pile into the home, and then Mom or Dad would start the fire and constantly tend to it and get it up to the right temperature. But you know, when that fire finally roared, it felt like it could have heated five homes. And this is like buying an income producing rental property. You can't just point and click to make income reliably appear. It takes time, and even some of this admin type of work before you feel hot returned the spark that can ignite the fire means first putting your financial house in order. Those are things like getting pre approved for a mortgage loan, and then they're stacking the firewood, which means finding a deal, making an offer, booking a property inspection, scheduling an appraisal, perhaps signing a property management agreement if you're not self managing, and then, of course, placing a tenant. But see when that investment property fire roars after a year or two that can create enough returns for five retail investors, just like our roaring wood fire could have heated five homes, even though you're only one investor getting like 5x returns, and by now, you probably felt, after a year or two of owning it, the profitable warmth of the five ways you're paid that you know so well. Those five ways are leverage, appreciation, cash flow. Tenant made principal pay down a tax benefit basket and the quiet, whispering fire of inflation, profiting on your loan, but you can't get over leveraged, meaning that you can't make the payments, or else you burn the whole house down. This means embracing the right level of debt rather than avoiding debt altogether. So yeah, you know, if you want to be in the top 1% or maybe even top 5% Do you know what that means? It means being misunderstood by the masses. And when you do this right, it's not about getting rich quick, but it's about building wealth. For sure, feel the fire and whatever you do, do it well, just like my dad told me, and oh, by the way, today, my parents still live in that same. House, but they now just turn a dial for heat. Well, you know, there's been a lot of real estate and financial news lately, just this constant feed of news. And I really need to tell you something about that. I am not a news reporter. If some news just broke an hour ago. A lot of times people are only overreacting to something like that. So here at GRE I infuse the news longer term into our content of the show, because some of it is just too big to ignore. But often let it settle down for a little while and filter out what it really means to you as an investor. I mean, being an educational platform rather than a news platform is what it's about. So I want to make sure you understand the relationships rather than just reporting the news. I mean, for example, what tariffs can do to home prices and rents and inflation. I mean, that really impacts you and your real estate long term. Rather than just doing something like reporting that the tariff on this nation that looked like it was going to be 25% is now only going to be 10% or something like that, that really doesn't affect you so much. So now that you know more about what to expect here, which are the stories that really affect you as an investor? The last inflation report did come in at a hot 3% that startled economists that it was that high. And what that does is that makes bond yields rise, because bond investors need a real return net of inflation, and in turn, that soon makes mortgage rates rise, and also it makes Jerome Powell be in no rush to cut his Fed funds rate after this hot inflation report, either. And here's another long term relationship that can help you learn the Fed's dual mandate is, what do you know? What it is, the two things I've mentioned it to you before, the Fed's dual mandate is maximum employment and stable prices. That right there is inherently volatile, because when employment is maximized, well then employers, they have to compete with higher wages in order to attract workers, and that makes prices go up, destabilizing the prices will stable. Prices is the second part of the dual mandate. So that's why it always seems like there's this lightning rod attention on Jay Powell in the Fed. It is because the dual mandate is inherently volatile. Now, you know what I think about predicting mortgage rates. I don't like to do it because it's an almost impossible task, like the myth of Sisyphus, that Greek myth about rolling a boulder up a hill wells, Fargo says mortgage rates will go down to just six and a half percent by the end of this year, so not much of a drop. And also by the end of next year, almost two years from now, they'll still be just six and a half percent. And other C rates rising from here. So there is broad consensus that there's zero reason to think that artificially low rates are going to return anytime in the near term, perhaps even in the intermediate term, coming up on a future episode of the show here and soon, how to use AI in real estate investing today, let's talk about mortgages and a special loan type. Today, we are back with the national leader in providing Americans with income property loans. She runs the operation at Ridge lending group. She's been doing this 25 years she's an investor herself. It is their CEO and president, Caeli Ridge, Caeli Ridge 9:06 Keith, thank you for having me. Keith Weinhold 9:08 There does seem to be one US president. That makes a lot of news lately, but Caeli is still the most noteworthy mortgage type of President, I suppose. And just like GRE Ridge focuses on education and Caeli mortgage rates. It's the topic that everyone wants to talk about. I don't predict mortgage rates, but I know that you'll Talk That Talk a little. And previously, many expected Jerome Powell and the Fed to drop the rate four times this year, then two and now more and more expect zero rate cuts at all this year, even opening the door for rate increases if inflation persists. So tell us about the propensities of this year's mortgage rate direction. Caeli Ridge 9:51 I think that I agree with a lot of the volume out there related to interest rates kind of stay in the course. I don't think we're going to see too much of a decline. There's. Certainly, Keith, we talk about this at nauseum. There's all kinds of things that could derail that statement that we can't prepare for, we couldn't predict for, but I think overall rates are going to stay steady. I think that whether you like them or you don't like them, the tariffs tend to come with an inflationary tone. And if that's the case, it's going to put Jerome and his buddies at the Fed in a tough position to do what they had hoped to do with the easing, the monetary easing. So I don't expect to see it, but I'm hopeful who knows. Who knows? Keith Weinhold 10:29 Now, for you, the listener and viewer here, when you really want to know what moves rates around, Caeli talk to us about this persistently high spread, and what that means is that historic difference between mortgage rates and the yield on the 10 year treasury note. Caeli Ridge 10:47 I feel like a lot of what that's going to attach itself to is the inflation, and then, more specifically, when we talk about llpas, and I think we've talked about this in the past, loan level price adjustments, mortgage backed securities secondary market, right? This is an investment that is bought and sold on the New York Stock Exchange, right? These are investments that carry value. And while the Treasury is usually the one that people will look at to predict where interest rates are going to go, I feel like in this higher rate environment, the secondary market understands that these mortgage backed securities are going to be paying off in advance of profitability. Now this gets a little bit complicated, but the easy way to explain it is is that if you secure a loan today at, say, seven and a half percent, if the anticipation is that interest rates over the next three years, maybe not in the next year, but two years, even three years, are going to decline. The mortgage that was closed today will likely pay off via a refinance. In that event, it's not reached the maturity date, such that when that initial mortgage backed security was purchased on the secondary market, it will have to pay off before the investor has been made whole or profitable. As a result, the margins it's called on in my world, it's called YSP, yield spread premium will not be met. So they're baking in certain levers, or they're hedging, as another way to say it, so that they're not left with those negative balances when these things do pay off when interest rates come down, because interest rates are not a straight line, they go up, they go down, they go east, they go west. So as a result, they're planning far in advance into the future. So I think that has a lot to do with it. Keith Weinhold 12:33 Real Estate industries are shrinking, and it's all related to the fact that back in 2021 the number of existing homes sold peaked at almost 7 million, but last year, it was only about 4 million. That is a huge drawdown. The number of US Realtors is dropping since it peaked in 2023 and Caeli, from what I can see, the number of loan officers, even operating has dropped precipitously over the last four years, it's a reminder that the strong survive and in the mortgage industry, top service is what savvy borrowers need. You go with the people that consistently advise you to take your time and look at your long term strategy and make the correct decision, not always the one giving like 1/8 of a percent lower and an interest rate, so any lender can get you the next loan, and few are going to help you with your long term strategy. With this overall lower volume of transactions taking place, what are your thoughts about how it's impacted the mortgage and lending industries? Caeli Ridge 13:37 It's such a good question. I'm glad that you asked it, and I really do think it speaks to the experts in the space consumers, our borrowers, as we call them, have to be, I believe, a little bit more discerning about who they want to align themselves with and who they want to work with as it relates to the interest rate. We've had this conversation off book. Ridge doesn't sell rate or cost. Now we're competitive, but we're never going to be the lowest possible lender out there. There's always going to be somebody that can undercut for an eighth, like you said, a quarter point, a few 100 bucks here and there. And we just don't get into that, our value adds far exceed an eighth of a point in rate, which, by the way, you probably can predict what I'm going to say next, if you're not doing the math, just as a sidebar listener, the difference in payment, and that's really where the focus should be. The difference in payment on an eighth or a quarter percent in interest rate on $100,000 is all of 5,7,8, bucks a month. Okay, so make sure you're doing the math, but the value adds that come with the education that we provide the 49 states, large footprint and the diversity of loan product, I think, far outweigh any eighth or few $100 difference when you're comparing side by side. I'm not saying that you don't want to get comparisons and you don't want to be a smart, informed consumer, but it really does matter that your lender understands known, owner occupied understands how to. Or take you from point A to point Z today and five and 10 years down the road. Keith Weinhold 15:05 you've been a mortgage industry leader for a long time with this lower volume. Have you seen mortgage companies implode close shop? Caeli Ridge 15:15 Absolutely, we have access to those data points and the number of loan officers just the individual in the doing the transaction, not including processors and underwriters and funders and doctors, but just the loan officers. I believe, in 2024 reduced by a margin of 53% gosh, yeah, that's a big number. Keith Weinhold 15:35 Yes, this is really hit the industry substantially. Are there any other interesting industry trends in this environment where we have persistently higher rates, I make sure not to say high, because historically, mortgage rates are still not high. The long term average being seven and three quarter percent on the 30 year fixed rate mortgage Are there any other trends that this loss in activity has created? Caeli Ridge 15:58 I feel like the informed investor is still finding ways to profit in real estate. They're finding diversity is key, which I'm a big proponent of as are you. That means single family residence to two to four units, cash flow versus appreciation, the short term rental, the long term rental, the midterm rental, making sure that they have a good, rounded portfolio is key. And there are some which I think we're going to be talking about today. There are some mortgage tools that I really feel like, for an informed investor, are allowing them to continue and propel further, even scale into the 25 and 26 years. Keith Weinhold 16:36 What's happened to the volume of owner occupied transactions versus investor transactions. I would imagine that investor mortgage transactions really aren't down that much. Caeli Ridge 16:47 not that much. I'd say there was a small blip, but I feel like we've made those up with some of the burr strategy loans we do, of course, all kinds of mortgage related transactions specifically for investors. And one of those products is a short term bridge loan, which would apply to the BRRRR method by rehab, rent and refinance. So we've been seeing quite a bit of that, where the investor will find a good deal on market or off market, where they can put a little bit of lipstick on it and then refinance it at the ARV or after repair value. So anything that we might have lost in just a traditional 30 year fixed straight purchase transactions, I feel like we made up in the other but it wasn't a big margin. Keith Weinhold 17:26 What if there was a mortgage product out there that just didn't work like other mortgage loan products do? For example, your deposits or the payments that you make on this special type of mortgage is applied to the principal first and only. There are a lot of other interesting characteristics about this particular mortgage product. We're going to discuss that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. We've got the CEO and President of ridge lending group back with us, an investor centric lender. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text FAMILY to66866, to learn about freedom, family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text FAMILY to 66866 hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind @ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com Rick Sharga 19:48 this is Rich charga, housing market intelligence analyst. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. Keith Weinhold 20:06 Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with a steady guest over time, because not only are they an income property centric mortgage loan company that do mortgage loans in 49 of the 50 states, but they're also centered on education and looking out for you, the investor, over the long term. And cheyley, such an interesting product that you offer is called the all in one loan. It's been a long time since you and I have really talked about this. What it is is a first lien HELOC. It's a way for you to use the equity in your existing properties. You can do it with either a primary residence or investment properties. There are just so many reasons why an all in one load just kicks the butt on a conventionally amortizing loan, including that all payments are applied to principal first and only, and a lot of other exciting things. So Caeli, why don't we back up and just describe what the all in one loan is big picture. Caeli Ridge 21:05 Now there is a lot to unpack, so we're going to take our time. Listener. First of all, let me just explain. Why is it called the all in one it's called that because it doubles as both a mortgage in the form of an open ended revolving HELOC and checking and savings. Both of those two features are combined, hence the all in one as a way of diminishing the amount of interest that can accrue over time. Let me explain so any revolving account, any account, including a credit card, for example, but first lien HELOC, second lien HELOC, whichever doesn't matter, open ended revolving is the key. Any open ended, revolving account will accrue interest daily based on two factors, the first being that day's balance and that months, in this case, interest rate, fully indexed interest rate. I'll come to interest rate later. As a result, you now have control largely over how much interest can accrue. Now let's take that statement and transfer it and look at it against an amortized, closed ended mortgage. You sign up for a 30 year fixed mortgage today. Let's say it's 7% whatever the interest rate is, is really irrelevant. Your principal and interest payment are defined on day one. There is no changing that monthly payment. Now you could certainly accelerate the payoff of that mortgage debt by doing what applying additional extra principal payments, right? But what happens to that extra principal payment when you send it off with your 30 year fixed mortgage payment, Keith Weinhold 22:34 it drops your loan balance, but your minimum payment amount is the exact same the next month, Caeli Ridge 22:38 right? And then what happens to all that liquidity that you had prior, it's now illiquid. Right? Exactly that off Keith Weinhold 22:45 you've just transferred your cash flow into equity. Financial freedom is created by doing the opposite thing and changing equity into cash flow, Caeli Ridge 22:52 very illiquid, and not the way an investor typically is going to want to run his or her business. So hence the all in one. Now for those of you that have heard the term velocity banking or infinity banking, maybe whole life insurance policy has a similar tone to this. The all in one, I believe, offers even more flexibility for variety of reasons that we're going to get into. But if you've ever heard those terms, that's similar to what this is. So I want to start by I usually like to give an example, okay, and provide some visual aid so that people can connect the dots. Let's start with the 30 year or a fixed rate mortgage. Just because I feel like, especially in the US, this particular loan product, or its concept is widely used in much of the rest of the world, in the US, I feel like we're sort of preconditioned here to really only understand that closed ended, amortized mortgage. So I'm going to start with an example there that actually highlights or leads into the concept of the all in one. So I want you to imagine a 30 year fixed mortgage and a 15 year fixed mortgage. Both of these mortgages originated or started at $400,000 as the balance on day one. The 30 year fixed mortgage locked at an interest rate of 4% and the 15 year fixed mortgage locked at an interest rate of 7% now, when I go through this exercise and I give this example to people, I ask them the question, Well, which one would you choose? And without exception, if they don't understand amortization, they are going to select that 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, because they don't understand that it's about speed. When you run the math and you look at an actual amortization table, you'll see that you'll pay $40,000 more in interest on a 4% 30 year or 360 month, versus a 7% 15 year or 180 month. So the point here, and what I'm illustrating, is it's speed. Now let's segue back over to the all in one. It's all about speed and how much interest we allow to accrue over time. So as you had mentioned, to start the kick this off, Keith, every deposit acts like a payment. Now here's where I struggled with this in learning. And when this was first introduced to me years ago, this part of it really caught me off guard. I had to really dig in and try to focus on what are they talking about? What do they mean? There's no payment due on the all in one. I'm gonna say that again. There's no payment due on the all in one. Think about your 30 year fixed mortgage. If you don't make a payment, what happens? Keith Weinhold 25:19 You're defaulting, you're in trouble. You become delinquent, Caeli Ridge 25:23 right? So that is not how this loan is set up. And it's not smoke and mirrors, okay? It's nothing fancy. The deposits that you make from ordinary income from all sources really Okay, so we want to talk about this is really special for investors, because we have access to gross rents, the rental income that's coming in before we send it back out the door, along with our net wages and every other source of income, deposits that we're getting can be utilized to your advantage. One of the ways in which I describe this is, I like to say you've become your own bank, so you have this line of credit, and your gross rents and all of your net wages are going to deposit into your checking account, driving that principal balance down, dollar for dollar, so that the interest accrual is diminished. Because remember what I said a few seconds ago, the interest is calculated on any open ended revolving account based on two factors, the balance for the day and the interest rate, so the more you have in depository income, and you drop it into your checking account, the longer it stays there, the lower the amount of interest is going to accrue within a 30 day billing cycle. Now let me just paint one more picture, and then we can open up to what questions come from this. So I want you to imagine this is I'm going to use easy, round math. I want you to imagine that you have an unpaid principal balance on your mortgage, on your HELOC of $100,000 just for round easy mouth, and that you bring in $10,000 a month in income from all sources. And just to keep it simple, we're going to say that that 10,000 comes in on day one of month one. Okay, so here's our 100 grand sitting there. My $10,000 is deposited into my checking account. Now my balance is $90,000 right? That 10 grand is not going to be touched. You will not touch that $10,000 for 29 days out of a 30 day billing cycle. And I'm giving you optimal tricks. Okay, this is how you want to use it optimally, yeah. Day one, instead of paying interest on $100,000 you're paying interest on paying interest on $90,000 and you're going to pay interest only on $90,000 for 29 days out of a 30 day billing cycle. Well, how am I going to make all my bills? And how am I going to eat? And how am I going to pay my cell phone? And what am I going to do? You're going to use a credit card, or credit cards of your choice, the ones that provide the best points, or whichever you prefer doesn't really matter. To pay all those monthly living expenses now we don't want to pay any interest on our credit cards. Right? 18, 28% whatever it is. No thank you. So now we're going to go to day 30 of that 30 day billing cycle. Right? 29 days that 10 grand has sat in there. Our balance has been 90. Our interest has accrued on that 90. On day 30, the credit card has amassed $9,000 in expenses. You've spent $9,000 for the month on food, gas utilities, car payments, cell phone, everything goes on that card. Day 30, you go into your checking account where your 10 grand has been sitting, and you write a check to pay off the credit card $9,000 so for one day of the month, we went from 90,000 in a balance to 99,000 right. 9000 had to come out of the 10 to pay off the credit card. We had $1,000 left over. Now I want you to fast forward into month to day one our starting balance, because that $1,000 leftover was our residual income, our discretionary our savings, it's what was not spent, but I have full access to it. Should I need it? So day one, month two 99, 000 is my outstanding balance. I drop in my $10,000 of income. 89,000 is what I'm going to be paying interest on for 29 days of a 30 day billing cycle. So this should allow listeners to connect some dots. There are two components of compound interest savings, the first being daily. We've got our income dropping in there. It's just sitting so daily savings, compound interest savings. And then that leftover savings, that residual, that $1,000 is going to be left in there month after month 24/7, access. That's monthly compound interest savings. So those are the two components that make this product profoundly impactful in diminishing that interest accrual over time. Why don't I take a pause Keith Weinhold 29:30 so with the all in one loan, we're really integrating our consumer accounts with our mortgage. Absolutely right? Is there a way to automate these payments associated with this? Caeli Ridge 29:43 Yes, I'm glad you asked. So everything that you have become accustomed to today in your checking and savings is going to be exactly the same with the all in one this mortgage is housed by an FDIC insured banking institution. It'll be one of two places depending on which. Which ends up picking up the rights. It'll be North Point or merchants, bank, those are the two that service this loan. Feel free to check them out when you think about the automation of your checking and savings accounts with your B of A, Chase, Wells, Fargo, whomever, credit union, whomever you bank with. Now there will be no difference to that experience and this experience so online bill pay, debit cards, routing numbers, paper checks. Should you still use those mobile apps? If you get a paper check, you take a picture and it uploads to the account. All the same exact automation as you have become used to today will apply with the all in one Keith Weinhold 30:36 and you described how the all in one loan is an open ended loan versus your plain vanilla 30 or fixed amortizing loan, which is closed ended. For those that don't know, what do those terms open ended and close ended mean? Caeli Ridge 30:48 So amortized is predetermined over the period of time that you've gotten the mortgage for. So whether it be a 10 year, a 20 year, 2515, 30, whatever it is, it is closed ended, so the interest rate that you secured against the loan amount that you've taken, they have come up with the formula, the calculation that says, This is how much interest you're going to pay over this length of time. And the longer the amount of time that you have selected, let's say a 30 or maybe even a 40 year. Those do exist, in some cases, the longer the amount of time that closed ended amortized mortgages in play, the more interest you're going to pay. Now, it keeps your payment lower for sure, but they're going to make it up in the interest that you'll pay in the long time. Now the open ended revolving just means that it is available to pay down and draw up, and pay down and draw up. It is not closed Keith Weinhold 31:40 and then with those conventional mortgages, typically, especially when you originate a new loan for years, most of your payment goes to interest, which would not be the case with the all in one loan. Caeli Ridge 31:53 Exa ctly. Yeah. So anybody that's looked at an amortization table knows the first 10 ish years, we'll just keep using the most common, 30 year fixed first 10 years or so, maybe even a few years past that, 90% of your payment is going to go to the interest. You won't start chunking down any principal until the back end of that mortgage, 180 or complete flip to the all in one every dollar that goes in there drives the principal down first. Keith Weinhold 32:18 That is huge, even if you pay a higher interest rate on your all in one loan, you can see how you have fewer dollars out of pocket in interest paid, which is what really matters to you, Caeli Ridge 32:30 exactly, right? So think about a 20% interest rate. If you're paying 20% interest on 50,000 then 7% interest on 500,000 you can see how the math will work in your favor, regardless of the number in the interest rate in comparing side to side. And one of the other things that we haven't touched on, and maybe this is a good segue, Keith, it's not just the daily deposits. We have clients that take out a, you know, a million dollar line of credit, but they have $500,000 sitting idle for whatever it is their business needs. And in the E commerce. It doesn't even matter, but they have this amount of cash that they're simply going to take from this vehicle a regular checking account over here, and drop it in here, and that interest is saved. That $500,000 that was sitting idle doing nothing over here is now saving interest at an incredible rate. So it's not just the daily and monthly deposits. If you just have idle cash, or you know you're going to be getting a bonus or a tax refund, or whatever it is, those monies that would otherwise just sit in a one to 2% maybe interest bearing checking savings account can now be applied over here, driving down that balance further, dollar for dollar saving in that interest. Keith Weinhold 33:39 So we are opportunistic investors here, when we see an accumulation of equity in a property or cash in an account, we want to get that moving with this all in one loan again, which is like a first lien HELOC, I would imagine that would we get plenty of room to borrow more in there, and there's been plenty of pay down, we might want to draw against it again for another purchase, and let this thing be flexible like an accordion back and forth as you're drawing the balance down and you're extending it out again. So really, the way I see the flexibility with the all in one loan is that you don't have to go through another mortgage loan origination each time you want to buy a property. You can just draw against this account. Caeli Ridge 34:20 And we're still just scratching the surface in what this thing does exactly right? And I've said this twice now, you've become your own bank. Yeah, okay, if you pay it down over a short period of time, let's say that you had half a million dollars and you were able to reduce that down to 300,000 there's a $200,000 spread there that, at your discretion, do not have to re pre qualify and pay closing costs. Again, you don't have to ask permission or get it approved, for some reason, those are your funds, your equity, your dollars to do what you want, when you want, how you want. The other thing too is probably a good place to point this out, safety net, as long as there is a spread between what you owe and the credit limit. Whatever that is. If something were to happen That was unfortunate, some unfortunate set of circumstance befell the family, whatever, and no income was coming into the household zero. What would happen if you didn't have money to make your 30 year fixed mortgage payment? You're going to ruin your credit and go into default. Well, the reverse is true with the all in one if there is a spread between the balance and the limit and you needed to not make any deposits, the only thing that's going to happen in that case is interest is going to accrue on top of that balance. The only time a payment deposit is mandated with the all in one is when the balance is about to exceed the limit. That's the only time. Now I'm not saying that that's the way people are going to use it, but that's the reality of it. So what if this? Let's take this down the rabbit hole for a second. If you couldn't make a deposit, you're not going to go into default, right? You're simply going to add some interest on top of the existing balance. But what if you needed to draw from it for living expenses for a couple of months? Yeah? What if you needed, you know, $5,000 a month for three months until you got back on your feet, whatever it is you have access to do that. There's your safety net. You just simply draw from it, as long as there's a spread between the balance and the limit, those are your funds to do with what you choose Keith Weinhold 36:13 if one takes out a HELOC, whether that's in an all in one loan form or not, something that I've advocated with my listeners for years is that now you do have this line that you can draw against to your point Haley, it's effectively another layer of insurance for that borrower or investor. So if you're interested in keeping down your insurance premium, you can get a HELOC or an all in one loan increase your insurance deductible, which can lower your insurance premium and increase your cash flow. Caeli Ridge 36:43 Good point. You know, I hadn't even thought about that before. That is a new one on me that is actually brilliant. Yes. Keith Weinhold 36:50 now we had a listener quite a while ago, Mark from Granite Bay, California, right in Mark's a great long time listener. When he found our show, he wanted to go back and re listen to all the old episodes. And he listens to several episodes multiple times. And Mark wrote in because he heard you on the show quite a while ago. And Mark says, I've been using the all in one loans, amazing mortgage balance deduction. But as a GRE listener, I know I can't be lured in by that alone. I also need to utilize its leverage. I just used my all in one loan Mark continues to say, probably, like a lot of others, to buy a duplex for mid south home buyers in all cash and then refinance that loan into a fanniefreda 30 year from my all in one loan simulations, and Caeli has an all in one loan simulation on her website that she'll tell you about. But to finish Mark's question, Mark says, I have gathered in these simulations that as long as properties are cash flowing, the best use of the all in one seems to be to keep repeating what we did on our first duplex purchase, use the all in one loan, to buy properties in all cash, and then later refi it into better debt or leverage, and then continue to repeat the process. Is that a valid way to use it? That's Mark's question. Caeli Ridge 38:03 Absolutely. Mark, Well done, sir. And there's a few points here that I want to take a minute and peel back, Keith, so one of the first things that I would say that's really great about that philosophy or that strategy is going to be that on a cash out refinance of the property that was paid cash, using the all in one we get to use the appraised value. So under the circumstances, if you paid $100,000 for it, and perhaps it valued at 110, 151, 20, whatever it is, then we as the lender are going to refinance on a cash out refinance using that higher appraised value, so you have a little bit more leverage there, and potentially get more in that loan to value when you're comparing what you're getting back versus what you put in. The other thing, obviously, is that when you're dealing with a turnkey or a seller, an agent, whatever, everybody knows that when you can come to the table with cash, yeah, right, you become the more desirable buyer. There's that obvious piece, and then in terms of that strategy and that simulation. So please, yes, that is absolutely the first thing that I'm going to do with anybody that calls in is I'm going to get on the phone with them, a teams call, and we're going to do the simulator together. But I encourage everybody to get in there and play around with it. If you're not quite sure what data points it's asking for, let us know, or we'll do one together. But that simulator is going to allow you to compare the all in one to either an existing mortgage on a primary rental property or a new traditional mortgage. Let's say you're thinking about buying an investment property with a 30 year fixed and you want to compare that to the all in one, or maybe you want to refinance one of your existing properties, so you can compare it to existing versus new. And then within that simulation, it will allow you to forecast additional spending. That will allow you to say, I want to take out $50,000 in month 22 and it'll reformulate where the simulation of saved interest, payoff time, all of those things will be available to you within that simulator. It's very slick. Keith Weinhold 40:00 And now that you, the investor, have the ability to pay all cash, not only can you close faster, but a lot of times, sellers are willing to give you a discount, since you can close faster and pay all cash, and then it's up to you down the road to go ahead and refinance that into a conventional product, or however else you want to do it. Caeli, what else should we know about the all in one loan? Caeli Ridge 40:24 Couple things I would share. First of all, the qualification metric for the all in one is going to be a little bit more restrictive than a traditional 30 year fixed mortgage, so be prepared for a little extra brain damage. I know that getting qualified for mortgages is not everybody's favorite activity. I get it. There's a lot that goes on to it. It's not like the good old days where some remember you could fog a mirror and get a mortgage, but the all in one does take it to another level, even beyond what you're used to now. So debt to income ratio, I'll give you the specifics really quickly, so just be prepared. I like to set that expectation. Debt to income ratio caps at 43% on the all in one versus 50% that we would have from a traditional Fannie Freddie, 30 year fixed. The reserve requirement is calculated based on the line limit. It's dependent on the debt to income ratio. I'll just leave it there. It'll either be 10% or 15% of the line limit. So if the limit was 100 grand, 10,000 or 15,000 is the reserve requirement, and then the minimum credit score requirement. Owner Occupied is 700 non owner occupied is 720 so a little bit higher on the bar for qualification for the all in one. Keith Weinhold 41:33 Who is this for? And who is it not for? Caeli Ridge 41:36 It is for anyone generally that has at least 10% discretionary income at the end of the month. Typically, everybody's circumstances are different. I encourage you to play with the simulator. Get on my schedule. Let's do it together. But more often than not, we find that 10% left over at the end of the month is generally enough for it to work for the individual, and for those of you that got 2% interest rates during the pandemic, I just want you to know that I'm running the simulator against those loans day in and day out. And I would say, I'll give you a 65% of the time the all in one is beaten the, you know, what, out of a two and a half percent 30 year fixed mortgage Keith Weinhold 42:12 that is really interesting. Well, there's a lot of opportunity and flexibility with the all in one loan. Is there any last thing that we should know about it. Caeli Ridge 42:22 Start doing your due diligence. This does take a minute to unpack. Don't get overwhelmed by all the information. We've talked about some real tangible stuff here, but there's quite a bit that there would be to uncover. So take your time. Call us. We'll walk through it step by step Keith Weinhold 42:36 and get started on that simulator and really see what it can do for you to make that actionable. Caeli, Where should one start? Caeli Ridge 42:44 Head to our website, ridgelendinggroup.com you can email us info@ridgelendinggroup.com and obviously we're always a phone call away at 855, 74, Ridge Keith Weinhold 42:54 and again, you can find that all in one loan simulator, where you can plug in some real numbers and see how it can benefit you. A friendly representative from Ridge can help you. Go ahead and do that there. So there's a lot of excitement about the all in one loan, especially, or an investor that has a GRE mindset philosophy and thinks about the opportunity of dead equity. But now that we've talked about that, tell us just quickly about some of the other products that you offer in there at ridge. Caeli Ridge 43:23 So I think one of the real value adds for us is that we're not a one size fits all. We have an extremely diverse menu, as I like to call it, of loan programs. The all in one is at the top of a short list of my favorites. For some individuals, you got the fanniefriddies. You've got non QM, which includes DSCR, debt service, coverage ratio, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans. We have ground up construction for those that are interested in that. We have our short term bridge loans that I talked briefly about, where if you need fix and flip fix and hold, potentially, you need shorter term money, commercial loans for commercial products, commercial loans for residential in a cross collateralization way, if that is to your advantage. So as you can see, it's quite diverse. Keith Weinhold 44:03 It's been valuable as always, and I definitely learned a few extra things that I did not know about the all in one loan myself. JAYLEE Reyes, it's been great having you back on the show, Keith. Thank you. Now a mortgage company, of course, they have overhead and employees that they have to pay and so on. And you know, from talking with Chaley some more, I learned that they don't even make much profit from all in one loans. We wanted to discuss it together today for your benefit. However, though there are some real fees with the all in one loan, you pay points of three to 4% of the draw in closing costs only, but it's a one time fee, not every time you draw against it. She also let me know that it does not make your taxes substantially. More complicated, if you think that it can help you clear a few minutes, learn more and get hooked up with that all in one loan simulator, where they will help you through it. Big thanks to Caeli Ridge today, they really make themselves available. You can just call 855, 74, Ridge. Or if it's more your style, visit them at Ridge lending group.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. Speaker 1 45:31 Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively. Keith Weinhold 45:59 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Budget Proposals & PPI Comes in Hot | February 13, 2025 – Morning Market Briefing

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2025 15:48

Tom discusses this morning's PPI numbers and Jay Powell at Congress. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

zoom market congress budget proposals briefing ppi jay powell

Small Business Optimism & Jay Powell Testifies in the Senate | February 11, 2025 – Morning Market Briefing

zoom market senate small business optimism briefing testifies jay powell

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2025 16:18

Ben and Tom discuss the NFIB Small Business Optimism report, Jay Powell testifying in the Senate, and the Israel-Hamas Truce ending on Saturday. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Weekly Roundup 01/31/25 (Senate Debanking Hearing, Powell's pivot, Tokenized Securities) (EP.592)

On The Brink with Castle Island

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 31, 2025 35:06

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode: Should we revisit Basel rules on Bitcoin? Jay Powell evolves on banks serving crypto Are banks going to offer crypto custody post SAB121? Gensler joins MIT Sloan Should crypto firms boycott MIT? The Senate will hold a hearing on debanking next week Choke Point 2.0 is getting caught up in conservative debanking Where are we on DeSci? Is tokenization finally going to happen? X is adding payments to the platform with Visa Truth Social is launching Truth.Fi Christine Lagarde says the ECB will not buy Bitcoin Is the Czech Republic buying bitcoin? Kraken turns back on staking Apollo is launching a tokenized credit fund on Ethereum and Solana Fairshake raises another $116m for the midterms SBF is asking Trump for a pardon Elliott says crypto is in a bubble Content mentioned: Blockchain Association Unveils Digital Asset Market Structure Principles

donald trump truth mit bitcoin hearing senate pivot apollo powell ethereum nic kraken czech republic basel ecb sbf gensler weekly roundup jay powell chokepoint debanking desci tokenized securities

Investors on Edge, Earnings on Deck, DeepSeek Probe 01/29/25

Worldwide Exchange

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 29, 2025 43:26

Wall Street's Tuesday turnaround on this ice after Monday's DeepSeek sell-off. Futures are mixed. Plus, front and center for investors today: big tech earnings and what the new DeepSeek risks could mean for Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft. And later, counting down to today's Fed decision and what Jay Powell will have to say about Trump's first two weeks in office.

donald trump microsoft tesla wall street investors fed deck futures probe earnings jay powell

Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on the Fed Decision

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 29, 2025 26:15 Transcription Available

decision bloomberg federal reserve instant reaction jay powell fed chair jay powell tom keene bloomberg surveillance lisa abramowicz

White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing

J.P. Morgan Insights (audio)

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 27, 2025 10:10

This Wednesday, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release a statement on monetary policy. It will, as usual, be a brief and colorless document and will look paler still in comparison to the more than 60 executive orders, proclamations and memoranda that have emanated from the White House in the first week of the President's new term. However, the Fed's statement and Jay Powell's press conference could well be of equal importance to financial markets.

president investing white house reactions fed federal reserve jay powell

Trump DEMANDS Rates Cut NOW—Will this Crash the Economy?

money donald trump depression economy inflation crash recession rates demands davos central banks opec deflation jay powell interest rate cuts jeff snider eurodollar university alhambra investments

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2025 19:44

President Trump created quite a stir in his speech to Davos, demanding, among other things, lower oil prices from OPEC plus lower interest rates out of Jay Powell. In fact, those two are linked with the one expected to pave the way for the other. What's the real game here? More important, what are the chances this can work?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Trump Urges Lower Oil Prices, Interest Rate Cuts at Davoshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/trump-urges-opec-to-lower-oil-prices-warns-of-tariffs-at-davosCNBC President Donald Trump says he'll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately'https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/president-donald-trump-says-hell-demand-that-interest-rates-drop-immediately.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

India's Currency Crisis Is Spreading

money donald trump crisis depression economy inflation recession new era currency spreading delhi central banks deflation nifty jay powell sensex jeff snider eurodollar university alhambra investments

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2025 21:25

Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee's currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of Jay Powell or Donald Trump. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisHindustan Times Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty tanks, rupee hits all-time lowhttps://www.hindustantimes.com/business/stock-market-crash-sensex-tanks-nearly-700-points-on-open-nifty-down-over-200-101736737599073.htmlBloomberg Deepening India Slowdown Sinks Hope for New Era of 8% Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-s-deepening-slowdown-dashes-hopes-for-new-era-of-8-growthBloomberg India's Central Bank Said to Ease Rupee Drought With FX Swapshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-s-central-bank-said-to-ease-rupee-drought-with-fx-swapsBusiness Standard 'If they tax us, we tax them': Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on Indiahttps://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/trump-threatens-reciprocal-tariffs-india-trade-conflict-124121800321_1.htmlBloomberg It May Rain Downgrades This Earnings Season in Indiahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-market-buzz-big-money-in-small-companies-looks-tough-nowBloomberg India Fixing Record Trade Gap After Overstating Gold Importshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-fixing-record-trade-deficit-after-overstating-gold-importshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

HOLY SH*T! China's Currency Crisis Is Worse Than Anyone Expected

money china crisis depression economy worse inflation recession fed expected currency central banks deflation holy sh jay powell jeff snider eurodollar university alhambra investments

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2025 20:07

China's yuan is hanging by a thread, the closest it has ever been to going over the government limit. Finally, even the mainstream media has caught on this has nothing to do with Jay Powell and the Fed. The bazooka has been utterly exposed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg PBOC Halts Bond Buying to Defend Yuan as Economic Gloom Worsenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/pboc-says-it-will-temporarily-halt-buying-of-government-bondsBloomberg China's Market Support Falls Short as Economic Gloom Deepenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/china-s-market-support-falls-short-as-economic-gloom-deepensBloomberg China Ramps Up Yuan Support With Record Hong Kong Bill Issuancehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/pboc-taps-record-bill-issuance-in-hong-kong-to-support-yuanBloomberg Yuan Short Sellers Squeezed by Soaring Hong Kong Funding Costshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/offshore-yuan-borrowing-costs-surge-as-currency-support-in-focushttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Simon Mikhailovich: Capitalizing on the Discrepancies between Perception and Reality

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 7, 2025 73:58

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back long-term contrarian investor and entrepreneur Simon Mikhailovich for a discussion centered around first principles, focusing on precious metals, commodities, economics, geopolitics, trade, and monetary matters. The conversation begins with the acknowledgement of high levels of uncertainty and complexity, making accurate forecasts challenging. Mikhailovich distinguishes between speculating on precious metals versus using them as a reserve asset. For speculation, market drivers are pertinent. However, for gold as a reserve asset, its unique property as the only financial asset without a counterparty makes it inversely correlated to confidence and trust in other people's promises. The conversation touches upon the concept of the fourth turning and where we are in this cycle. Mikhailovich underscores the significance of understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold. He also discusses how post-World War II arrangements have led to the United States' hegemonic role economically and militarily, and the start of financialization and globalization. Mikhailovich raises concerns about understated inflation and its potential impact on real economic growth or contraction. He also highlights the lack of clear guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell in navigating through uncertain conditions. They explore the winners and losers of the global economy, with tactical gains for Wall Street investors, technology industries, and certain countries like China. However, working people have been losing due to job outsourcing. Mikhailovich mentions China's growing power and desire for independence from the United States as potential challenges to the current economic order. The conversation delves into geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with borders becoming less inviolable after World War One and World War Two. The Suez Canal's declining traffic and resulting increased costs serve as an example of inflationary pressures. Mikhailovich discusses the significance of gold as a financial asset and its increasing demand, particularly from China and other countries, as a response to a loss of confidence in the global financial system. He also mentions the relationship between digital currencies like Bitcoin and the US dollar, suggesting that regulatory actions could impact their independence from the dollar and the broader financial system. Lastly, Simon emphasizes understanding the complexities, considering various data points, focusing on resiliency, and looking at first principles. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Uncertainties & Metals4:22 - The Fourth Turning9:00 - Statistics & Reality17:00 - Wars, Rumors & Borders26:47 - Economic Fragility33:55 - Gold & Eastern Buying38:30 - Trump & U.S. Dollar41:18 - Gold & Confidence50:07 - Trump & Bond Markets53:56 - World Has Changed1:03:02 - Inflation Vs. Panic1:05:20 - Socialism & Competence1:10:02 - A Serious Situation1:13:13 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Gold as a reserve asset is inversely correlated to confidence in other people's promises. Understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold is crucial. Concerns about understated inflation, lack of clear guidance from Jay Powell, and China's growing power pose challenges. Guest Links:Twitter: https://c.com/S_MikhailovichWebsite: https://www.bullionreserve.com Simon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold.

Global Bonds Are MOVING: Here's What Central Banks Don't Want You to Know

money moving depression global economy inflation recession fed bonds treasury central banks want you to know deflation first time since jay powell jeff snider eurodollar university alhambra investments

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 25, 2024 20:20

Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY Term Premia calculationshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactiveBloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium' Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

12-23-24 Hour 2: HEAVY College Football Playoff talk.. We honor the legend - Rickey Henderson.. Plus, Jay Powell joins the program to talk Rickey Henderson and more!

live college football playoffs betterhelp bounds rickey henderson jay powell farm bureau insurance

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2024 51:07

All guests join us on the Farm Bureau Insurance guest line, and we are LIVE from the BankPlus Studio! Out of Bounds is sponsored by BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com/BOUNDS today to get 10% off your first month! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

12-23-24 Jay Powell - World Series Champ & Ms State Bulldog Legend: Recaps the legendary career of Ricky Henderson.

live career legendary recaps bulldogs betterhelp bounds world series champ jay powell ricky henderson farm bureau insurance

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2024 30:42

Global Bonds Are CRASHING, Here's What that Means for the World

money depression global record economy inflation recession fed bonds crashing central banks deflation jay powell jeff snider eurodollar university alhambra investments

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2024 20:29

Interest rates worldwide are hanging at the edge of a cliff. It may not seem like it from the current focus on the Fed and the possible pause in its rate cutting. This doesn't mean other central bank rate cuts, either. Instead, two very critical signals have absolutely plunged just in the past few days. Record lows in both are far more relevant than Jay Powell. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Back to back losses, Antitrust Push, Powell Secure 12/11/24

Worldwide Exchange

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2024 43:42

Stocks are coming off their back-to-back losing sessions in weeks ahead of today's inflation report. Plus, Washington's antitrust wave hits Wall Street sending shares of names you are sinking. And Later, Trump's treasury picks back Jay Powell to finish out his terms as Fed Chairman.

donald trump washington wall street secure powell stocks losses back to back antitrust jay powell fed chairman

House Majority Leader Scalise on DOGE & The NYT DealBook Summit 12/05/24

Squawk Pod

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2024 35:53

Andrew Ross Sorkin shares highlights from The New York Times DealBook Summit yesterday, including his interviews with Jeff Bezos, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Prince Harry and former President Bill Clinton. Notable moments included Jay Powell comparing bitcoin to gold, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman calling Elon Musk a “mega hero,” and Google CEO Sundar Pichai's comments on DEI. Plus, bitcoin has hit $100,000, and Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) the race for House Financial Services Committee chairman and his plans to work with a potential Department of Government Efficiency. Rep. Steve Scalise - 27:10 In this episode:Rep. Steve Scalise, @SteveScaliseBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

elon musk jeff bezos dei bill clinton prince harry doge notable sam altman jerome powell sundar pichai steve scalise scalise house financial services committee jay powell house majority leader andrew ross sorkin dealbook summit new york times dealbook summit

UNH CEO Brian Thompson Shot in Manhattan | December 5, 2024 – Morning Market Briefing

zoom market manhattan briefing brian thompson jay powell dealbook summit

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2024 15:22

Andrew and Tom discuss yesterday's assassination of Brian Thompson and Jay Powell's speech at the DealBook Summit. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visithttps://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

The Most Important Global Indicator Is SKYROCKETING