Podcast appearances and mentions of Jay Powell

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the path for U.S. interest rates after the nomination of Kevin Warsh for next Fed chair.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today we'll be talking about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that occurred last week.It's Thursday, February 5th at 8:30 am in New York.So, Mike, last week we had the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2026. What were your general impressions from the meeting? And how did it compare to what you had thought going in? Michael Gapen: Well, Matt, I think that the main question for markets was how hawkish a hold or how dovish a hold would this be. As you know, it was widely expected the Fed would be on hold. The incoming data had been fairly solid. Inflation wasn't all that concerning, and most of the employment data suggested things had stabilized. So, it was clear they were going to pause. The question was would they pause or would they be on pause, right? And in our view, it was more of a dovish hold. And by that, it suggests to us, or they suggested to us, I should say, that they still have an easing bias and rates should generally move lower over time. So, that really was the key takeaway for me. Would they signal a prolonged pause and perhaps suggest that they might be done with the easing cycle? Or would they say, yes, we've stopped for now, but we still expect to cut rates later? Perhaps when inflation comes down and therefore kind of retain a dovish bias or an easing bias in the policy rate path. So, to me, that was the main takeaway. Matthew Hornbach: Of course, as we all know, there are supposed to be some personnel changes on the committee this year. And Chair Powell was asked several questions to try to get at the future of this committee and what he himself was going to do personally. What was your impression of his response and what were the takeaways from that part of the press conference? Michael Gapen: Well, clearly, he's been reluctant to, say, pre-announce what he may do when his term is chair ends in May. But his term as a governor extends into 2028. So, he has options. He could leave normally that's what happens. But he could also stay and he's never really made his intentions clear on that part. I think for maybe personal or professional reasons. But he has his own; he has his own reasons and, and that's fine. And I do think the recent subpoena by the DOJ has changed the calculus in that. At least my own view is that it makes it more likely that he stays around. It may be easier for him to act in response to that subpoena by being on staff. It's a request for additional information; he needs access to that information. I think you could construct a reasonable scenario under which, ‘Well, I have to see this through, therefore, I may stay around.' But maybe he hasn't come to that conclusion yet. And then stepping back, that just complicates the whole picture in the sense that we now know the administration has put forward Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. Will he be replacing the seat that Jay Powell currently sits in? Will he be replacing the seat that Stephen Myron is sitting in? So yes, we have a new name being put forward, but it's not exactly clear where that slot will be; and what the composition of the committee will look like. Matthew Hornbach: Well, you beat me to the punch on mentioning Kevin Warsh… Michael Gapen: I kind of assumed that's where you were going. Matthew Hornbach: It was going to be my next question. I'm curious as to what you think that means for Fed policy later this year, if anything. And what it might mean more medium term? Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, first of all, congratulations to Mr. Warsh on the appointment. In terms of what we think it means for the outlook for the Fed's reaction function and interest rate policy, we doubt that there will be a material change in the Fed's reaction function. His previous public remarks don't suggest his views on interest rate policy are substantively outside the mainstream, or at least certainly the collective that's already in the FOMC. Some people would prefer not to ease. The majority of the committee still sees a couple more rate cuts ahead of them. Warsh is generally aligned with that, given his public remarks. But then also all the reserve bank presidents have been renominated. There's an ongoing Supreme Court case about the ability of the administration to fire Lisa Cook. If that is not successful, then Kevin Warsh will arrive in an FOMC where there's 16 other people who all get a say. So, the chair's primary responsibility is to build a consensus; to herd the cats, so to speak. To communicate to markets and communicate to the public. So, if Mr. Warsh wanted to deviate substantially from where the committee was, he would have to build a consensus to do that. So, we think, at least in the near term, the reaction function won't change. It'll be driven by the data, whether the labor market holds up, whether inflation, decelerates as expected. So, we don't look for material change. Now you also asked about the medium term. I do think where his views differ, at least with respect to current Fed policy is on the size of the Fed's balance sheet and its footprint in financial markets. So, he has argued over time for a much smaller balance sheet. He's called the Fed's balance sheet bloated. He has said that it creates distortions in markets, which mean interest rates could be higher than they otherwise would be. And so, I think if there is a substantive change in Fed policy going forward, it could be there on the balance sheet. But what I would just say on that is it'll likely take a lot of coordination with Treasury. It will likely take changes in rules, regulations, the supervisory landscape. Because if you want to reduce the balance sheet further without creating volatility in financial markets, you have to find a way to reduce bank demand for it. So, this will take time, it'll take study, it'll take patience. I wouldn't look for big material changes right out of the box. So Matt, what I'd like to do is, if I could flip it back to you, Warsh was certainly one of the expected candidates, right? So, his name is not a surprise. But as we knew financial markets, one day we're thinking it'd be one candidate. The next day it'd be thinking at the next it was somebody else. How did you see markets reacting to the announcement of Mr. Warsh? For the next Fed share, and then maybe put that in context of where markets were coming out of the last FOMC meeting. Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the markets that moved the most were not the traditional, very large macro markets like the interest rate marketplace or the foreign exchange market. The markets that moved the most were the prediction markets. These newer markets that offer investors the ability to wager on different outcomes for a whole variety of events around the world. But when it comes to the implications of a Kevin Warsh led Fed – for the bigger macro markets like interest rates and currencies, the question really comes down to how? If the Fed's balance sheet policies are going to take a while to implement, those are not going to have an immediate effect, at least not an effect that is easily seen with the human eye. But it's other types of policy change in terms of his communication policy, for example. One of the points that you raised in your recent note, Mike, was how Kevin Warsh favored less communication than perhaps some of the recent, Federal Open Market Committees had with the public. And so, if there is some kind of a retrenchment from the type of over-communication to the marketplace, from either committee members or non-voters that could create a bit more volatility in the marketplace. Of course, the Fed has been one of the central banks that does not like to surprise the markets in terms of its monetary policy making. And so, that contrasts with other central banks in the G10. For example, the Swiss National Bank tends to surprise quite a lot. The Reserve Bank of Australia tends to surprise markets. More often, certainly than the Fed does. So, to the extent that there's some change in communication strategy going forward that could lead to more volatile interest rate in currency markets. And that then could cause investors to demand more risk premium to invest in those markets. If you previously were comfortable owning a longer duration Treasury security because you felt very comfortable with the future path of Fed policy, then a Kevin Warsh led Fed – if it decides to change the communication strategy – could naturally lead investors to demand more risk premium in their investments. And that, of course, would lead to a steeper U.S. Treasury curve, all else equal. So that would be one of the main effects that I could see happen in markets as a result of some potential changes that the Fed may consider going forward. So, Mike, with that said, this was the first FOMC meeting of the year, and the next meeting arrives in March. I guess we'll just have to wait between now and then to see if the Fed is on hold for a longer period of time or whether or not the data convinced them to move as soon as the March meeting. Thanks for taking time to talk, Mike. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Shares of Google parent Alphabet fell after its quarterly report, despite beating estimates. Citi analyst Ron Josey explains the weight of AI spending on profit margins. After President Trump gave an interview to NBC's Tom Llamas, Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) discusses the President's pick for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. Sen. Moreno also weighs in on the Department of Justice's case against the current Fed chair, Jay Powell. Ahead of the Super Bowl, CNBC's Contessa Brewer reports on the weekend wagers boosting traffic on sportsbooks and prediction markets. Jonathan Cohen, author and head of the American Institute for Boys and Men Sports Betting Policy Hub, underscores the risks of game day bets for financial and mental wellbeing. Plus, fallout from the Epstein files continues. Ron Josey - 4:42Senator Bernie Moreno - 17:12Contessa Brewer - 27:08Jonathan Cohen - 31:57 In this episode:Becky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

With only 90 days to go on his term as Fed Chair, Jay Powell once again, in a public speech, told Trump, “hands off” the Federal Reserve's independence! Popok puts on his Wall Street hat to look at the dire Trump Economy numbers for the last 48 hours, with the skyrocketing oil prices, plummeting consumer confidence and US dollar, increasing Trade Deficit, and a Fed Reserve trying desperately to navigate the turbulence and save the Economy from Trump's erratic policies. Mack Weldon: Go to https://mackweldon.com and get 20% off your first order of $125 or more, with promo code LEGALAF. Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast Cult Conversations: The Influence Continuum with Dr. Steve Hassan: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-influence-continuum-with-dr-steven-hassan The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show Burn the Boats: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/burn-the-boats Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Donald Trump selects Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, leaving investors to wonder which Warsh will show up: the hawk or the dove? Plus, Senator Elizabeth Warren joins us after urging Republicans to not move forward with Warsh's nomination until the DOJ ends its inquiry into Jay Powell. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Donald Trump is taking aim at the most powerful, and most opaque, institution in the global economy: the Federal Reserve. By moving to oust Jay Powell through a criminal investigation, Trump has triggered a battle that cuts to the heart of who really controls money in America, and by extension, the world. Is this an unprecedented act of economic sabotage? A dangerous authoritarian power grab? Or is Trump simply calling the bluff of a self-regarding central banking elite who've been pulling the levers of the economy from their marble citadels for 40 years? In this episode, we go deep on interest rates, the dollar, and the political economy of money, from Nero and Henry VIII to Lenin and Hitler, to explain why powerful leaders have always wanted to control the currency. We explore what “financial repression” really means, why Trump wants rates at 1%, and who wins (and loses) when money is made cheap. What if the central bankers aren't the neutral technocrats they claim to be? What if independence has been more myth than reality, and quantitative easing has already blurred the lines between the Fed and the government? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this special MLK Holiday edition of Bloomberg Daybreak, host Nathan Hager discusses: Stocks are coming off three straight years of double digit gains..What will 2026 hold? We hear from Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth and Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy, RBC Capital Markets Lost in the recent controversy over the investigation into Jay Powell and the Fed...Is monetary policy. Next week the central bank makes its first rate decision of the year. For more, we speak with Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent Michael McKee and Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics We also look at the current status of Diversity Equity and Inclusion initiatives. For that we speak wit Bloomberg's Equality Reporter Jeff Green and Bloomberg reporter Heather Landy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vault co-author Brendan Pedersen talks about his insane week covering financial policy news, including Jay Powell and the CCCA. This story was featured in The Readback, our weekend digest featuring the best of Punchbowl News this week. Want more in-depth daily coverage from Congress? Subscribe to our free Punchbowl News AM newsletter at punchbowl.news. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.serioustrouble.showFed Chair Jerome Powell dropped a bombshell on Sunday: a video disclosing the Fed had been subpoenaed in a criminal investigation related to his congressional testimony about cost overruns in the Fed's headquarters renovation. Powell said bluntly that the investigation is an effort to use the DOJ to assert control over the Fed and its interest-rate setting apparatus. Did this make Ken scream "shut up!!!!" at Powell's video? Meanwhile, Minnesota and some of its municipalities have sued the federal government, arguing that the ICE surge in the state is illegal and unconstitutional. Those discussions are for all listeners. Paying subscribers also get:* A look at intensifying turnover in US Attorneys' offices, including the resignation of top prosecutors who had been leading the investigations into welfare fraud in Minnesota that was concentrated in the state's Somali-American community.* DOJ's argument for why Lindsey Halligan can keep calling herself a US Attorney after a judge ruled she isn't one.* Senator Mark Kelly's many arguments for why Pete Hegseth can't reduce his rank and pension.* Some “shut up” news: prosecutors want to admit several incriminating statements from defendant Thomas Goldstein's pre-trial New York Times profile.* And a look at a bizarre situation where Bruce Fein insists he somehow became Nicolas Maduro's lawyer even though Maduro says he never hired him.Upgrade your subscription now at serioustrouble.show.

More inflation numbers, more jabs by President Donald Trump at Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman. We ask what the Fed is doing, should be doing and is being pressured to do. Six years after the official Brexit divorce, we count the costs and ask what making-up is now possible. And how self-help books reveal the anxieties of their times.Get a world of insights by subscribing to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

More inflation numbers, more jabs by President Donald Trump at Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman. We ask what the Fed is doing, should be doing and is being pressured to do. Six years after the official Brexit divorce, we count the costs and ask what making-up is now possible. And how self-help books reveal the anxieties of their times.Get a world of insights by subscribing to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) joined Bloomberg's Joe Mathieu to discuss Jay Powell and foreign policy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It wasn't the Trump administration's first attack on the Federal Reserve – but it was perhaps the most shocking. The Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Jay Powell – nominally over his testimony about the refurbishment of Fed buildings – has ramped up pressure on the Fed chair, whom Donald Trump has frequently criticised over the central bank's interest rate stance. Will Trump succeed in imposing his will on the Fed, and how might the world's most important financial institution fight back? Is there any hope that the next Fed chair will stand up to Trump? FT US economics editor Claire Jones speaks to the Fed's former vice-chair Don Kohn.Further ReadingHigh-stakes Powell probe carries risks for US justice departmentCentral bank chiefs ‘stand in full solidarity' with Jay Powell Justice department's probe into Jay Powell galvanises Fed leaders to repel Donald Trump's attacks Claire Jones is the FT's US economics editor. You can find her articles here.Subscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen. Presented by Claire Jones. Produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval. The executive producer was Manuela Saragosa. Original music from Breen Turner, and sound design by Breen Turner and Sam Giovinco. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti is planning to step down in April 2027, and Paramount threatened a proxy fight in its latest move to force Warner Bros Discovery back to the negotiating table. Plus, the FT's Robert Armstrong explains what could come next in US President Donald Trump's crackdown on the Federal Reserve. Mentioned in this podcast:UBS boss Sergio Ermotti plans to step down in April 2027Paramount threatens proxy fight in battle for Warner Bros DiscoveryWhat is behind the criminal investigation into Jay Powell?Former Fed chiefs attack DoJ probe into Jay PowellFT subscription sale Note: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino and produced by Sonja Hutson. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Division over the federal investigation of the Federal Reserve has rattled the Republican Party. CNBC's Eamon Javers reports from Washington, DC, and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy discusses the probe and the President's power at home and abroad. Tune into CNBC tonight for “Warren Buffett: A Life and Legacy,” a two-hour special of exclusive, never-before-seen interviews with Warren Buffett about his views on business, philanthropy, and life, and how his philosophies have evolved over the decades. Hosted by CNBC's Becky Quick, the program will also feature interviews with Warren Buffett's three kids – Susie, Howie, and Peter – who reflect on the enormous responsibility their father has entrusted to them – to eventually donate his entire fortune. Eamon Javers - 8:34Kevin McCarthy - 18:10 In this episode: Kevin McCarthy, @SpeakerMcCarthyEamon Javers, @eamonjaversBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Sam Fenwick takes a look as US President Donald Trump brings back tariffs, this time targeting countries that continue trading with Iran, with China among those in focus. New US inflation figures show price rises are easing, but many American shoppers still say their weekly bills feel high. And pressure on the Federal Reserve has spilled into an open row with its chair, Jay Powell, drawing in central bankers from around the world.(PHOTO: People wave flags during a demonstration in support of the national protests in Iran, in Barcelona, Spain January 13, 2026. Credit: REUTERS/ Albert Gea).

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Are prosecutors really coming after the Federal Reserve Chair—or is this something else entirely? Reports that the Justice Department is investigating Jerome Powell over testimony related to the Fed's building renovation have ignited speculation, outrage, and a very real debate about central bank independence.In this episode, Chris breaks down what's actually happening, why grand jury subpoenas matter, and how this investigation fits into a broader campaign of political pressure on the Fed. With interest rates at the center of a heated midterm-year fight, Powell says the probe is a pretext designed to intimidate the central bank into lowering rates—despite inflation realities saying otherwise.Chris also unpacks the misconceptions about interest rates, why mortgage rates don't move the way people think they do, and why using the legal system as a political weapon sets a dangerous precedent. If this is about accountability, where are the prosecutions everyone was promised elsewhere? And if it's about pressure, what does that mean for the future of independent monetary policy?This isn't just about Jay Powell—it's about whether evidence-based policy survives political intimidation.

It looks like the sharemarket will once again be the place to make money in 2026, especially on Wall Street. But it's not going to be a smooth ride: In the first weeks of the year, the US has unleashed a wave of foreign interventions - and President Trump has subpoenaed Fed Reserve chair Jay Powell - triggering alarm bells on Wall Street. Marc Jocum, investment strategist at GlobalX ETFs joins Associate Editor - Wealth, James Kirby in this episode. In today's show, we cover The outlook for investment markets in 2025 Forecasts for the ASX in the year ahead Key predictions for Wall Street The improved prospects in wider global markets See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell, and civil unrest continues to threaten the Islamic regime in Iran. Plus, earnings season kicks off this week with the bank results.Mentioned in this podcast:US prosecutors investigate Jay Powell over revamp of Fed headquartersIran warns US against interventionWall Street headed for best investment banking year since pandemicFT subscription saleNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Victoria Craig, and produced by Julia Webster and Marc Filippino and Sonja Hutson. Our show was mixed by Alex Higgins. Additional help from Peter Barber. The FT's executive producer is Topher Forhecz. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Source: Federal Reserve, White HouseRead a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell focused on the Fed's building renovation and Powell's related testimony. CNBC's Eamon Javers reports on the investigation and Jay Powell's statement that the probe is related to President Trump's frustration with the Fed's monetary policy. One of the front runners as Powell's replacement Kevin Hassett, currently director of the National Economic Council, weighs in on the news and discusses the independence of the Federal Reserve. Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) shares his perspective on the investigation, immigration enforcement around the country, and President Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates.  Eamon Javers - 2:40Kevin Hassett - 26:11Sen. Mark Warner - 37:47 In this episode:Mark Warner, @MarkWarnerEamon Javers, @eamonjaversBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the DOJ investigation into Jay Powell, Trump's push to cap credit card interest rates, and Eli Lilly's consideration of acquiring Abivax.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Join the Einstein of Wall Street for an in-depth 2025 market wrap-up from the New York Stock Exchange. This episode reviews key events and trends, including the extraordinary 125% rise of the S&P 500 since 2020, significant market moves due to Jay Powell's decisions, and the profound impact of Trump's tariff policies. The market's resilience amidst economic Armageddon, interest rate cuts, government shutdowns, and Bitcoin volatility is discussed. Key highlights include record highs in silver and gold, remarkable earnings seasons, and the controversial role of AI stocks. As we enter 2026, discover insights into what's next for the economy and how to navigate new market dynamics. Tune in for a comprehensive analysis and forecast from Trade Like Einstein Money News Network. Follow Peter on instagram: @einsteinofwallst 00:00 Introduction and Welcome 00:18 2025 Market Wrap-Up 00:41 Historical Market Performance 02:36 Impact of Tariffs and Political Changes 04:50 Market Reactions and Recovery 08:10 Interest Rate Cuts and Government Shutdown 10:44 AI Bubble Controversy 14:25 Conclusion and Outlook for 2026 All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments.

So, Jay Powell just casually strolled to the podium at his press conference last week and announced the Fed now believes the US has been losing jobs at a rate of 20,000 per month. From strong and resilient to solid to, ah, so what we're now shedding jobs by the tens of thousands per month. Do you see it yet? The Treasury curve does, which is why it is moving into its final form in this long un-inversion process, with the big moves taking shape and doing most of the reshaping right in Chair Powell's conference room.   Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Webinar SeriesThursday December 17, 6pm ETA Trillion-Dollar Eurodollar Bomb is going Off on Wall StreetThe most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals, and almost no one is paying attention.https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/risks---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, join me at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To get your spot, just go here: https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page------------------------------------------------------------NBER Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activityhttps://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-december-1-2008FOMC Press Conference, December 10, 2025https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko-_yb2UkDkTranscripthttps://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdfBloomberg Fed's Goolsbee Says He Sees More Cuts Than Most Others Next Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-12/fed-s-goolsbee-cites-need-for-more-data-in-dissent-against-cuthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Stocks extend a two-week win streak as investors look to the Fed decision — and whether Jay Powell can deliver a third straight rate cut despite internal pushback. Plus, futures climb as markets show little concern. And later, Ray Dalio doubles down on where he sees markets heading next. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In today's episode, Kip breaks down the big stories and market moves you need to know about as we kick off a busy week on Wall Street. With the Federal Reserve meeting looming and rate cut speculation swirling, Kip shares insights on what Jay Powell is likely to do, why the bond market is sending mixed signals, and why these moves could signal a bullish setup for investors heading into the end of the year. Plus, you'll get Kip's take on the current trends in semiconductors, bitcoin, and gold miners, as he highlights the stocks and sectors he's watching including why he's still bullish on Tesla and what unique cycle is emerging in the gold mining industry. From contrarian signals on social media sentiment to actionable commentary on leveraged ETFs and precious metals, this episode is packed with practical analysis to help guide your investing decisions. Tune into today's podcast to learn more. 

Investors start December in the red after a strong November rally. With earnings behind us, focus now turns to the Fed. Plus, President Trump says he's chosen his pick to replace Jay Powell as rate-cut odds rise. And later, Black Friday results show consumers still spending this holiday season. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Presented by Pearl River Resort. Visit PearlRiverResort.com today! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Presented by Pearl River Resort. Visit PearlRiverResort.com today! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SHOW 11-4-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 18865 PUBLISHER ROW THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT NEW YORK CITY AND LONDON. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury Secretary Bessent asserts that housing is in recession due to high Federal Reserve rates. Peek argues that lower rates are needed to "unstick" the housing market. The Fed, led by Jay Powell, is fixated on inflation, though Peek questions his rationale regarding tariffs and labor demand. The conversation also covers the Trump-Xi meeting, which was anticlimactic, postponing confrontation for a year. Key concessions included China relenting on rare earth exports and American soybean boycotts. 915-930 Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury Secretary Bessent asser 930-945 The Far Right in Europe and German Rearmament. Judy Dempsey examines the rise of Europe's far right, noting that while they succeed in complaining, they often struggle to govern, exe. 945-1000 The Far Right in Europe and German Rearmament. Judy Dempsey examines the rise of Europe's far right, noting that while they succeed in complaining, they often struggle to govern, exemplified by t. SECOND HOUR 1245-100 AM Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley discusses Trump's order for military action in Nigeria, noting the violence is complex and not strictly genocide against Christians, contrasting it with US refusal to provide past aid. Discussion shifts to the overwhelming US military buildup near Venezuela, which might force Maduro's departure by damaging his credibility, possibly via anti-narcotics action. The interview concludes by analyzing the anticlimactic Trump-Xi meeting, attributing the lack of confrontation to Xi Jinping's significantly weakened position due to China's shattered economy and internal power struggles. SHOW 11-4-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT NEW YORK CITY AND LONDON. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury Secretary Bessent asserts that housing is in recession due to high Federal Reserve rates. Peek argues that lower rates are needed to "unstick" the housing market. The Fed, led by Jay Powell, is fixated on inflation, though Peek questions his rationale regarding tariffs and labor demand. The conversation also covers the Trump-Xi meeting, which was anticlimactic, postponing confrontation for a year. Key concessions included China relenting on rare earth exports and American soybean boycotts. 915-930 Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury . 930-945 The Far Right in Europe and German Rearmament. Judy Dempsey examines the rise of Europe's far right, noting that while they succeed in complaining, they often struggle to govern, exemplified by the AfD's lack of concrete policies. Hungary's Viktor Orbán, though long-ruling, now faces popular pressure. Dempsey highlights Italy's Giorgia Meloni as an exception who has successfully governed by clearly communicating her reform agenda. She confirms that Russia supports destabilizing far-right movements across Europe, particularly hoping for an AfD win. Additionally, Germany's Chancellor Merz is committed to redeveloping the military and infrastructure for NATO defense. 945-1000 The Far Right in Europe and German Rearmament. Judy Dempsey examines the rise of Europe's far right, noting that while they succeed in complaining, they often struggle to govern, exemplified by the AfD's lack of concrete policies. Hungary's Viktor Orbán, though long-ruling, now faces popular pressure. Dempsey highlights Italy's Giorgia Meloni as an exception who has successfully governed by clearly communicating her reform agenda. She confirms that Russia supports destabilizing far-right movements across Europe, particularly hoping for an AfD win. Additionally, Germany's Chancellor Merz is committed to redeveloping the military and infrastructure for NATO defense. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Venezuela Pressure Campaign and Asian Diplomacy. Mary Kissel analyzes the massive US military buildup near Venezuela, staged from Roosevelt Roads, noting that the Trump administration prioritizes removing Maduro due to national security threats. She emphasizes that the State Department possesses numerous non-military levers, like sanctions and international pressure through the OAS, to induce Maduro's exit without direct intervention. Kissel also characterizes President Trump's diplomatic engagement at ASEAN and APEC as very successful, securing vital commitments on rare earth mining and processing to counter Chinese economic threats in the Pacific. 1015-1030 Venezuela Pressure Campaign and Asian Diplomacy. Mary Kissel analyzes the massive US military buildup near Venezuela, staged from Roosevelt Roads, noting that the Trump administration prioritizes removing Maduro due to national security threats. She emphasizes that the State Department possesses numerous non-military levers, like sanctions and international pressure through the OAS, to induce Maduro's exit without direct intervention. Kissel also characterizes President Trump's diplomatic engagement at ASEAN and APEC as very successful, securing vital commitments on rare earth mining and processing to counter Chinese economic threats in the Pacific. 1030-1045 Hamas Leverage, Gaza Ruin, and Hezbollah Rearmament. Jonathan Schanzer explains that Hamas is stalling hostage releases to maintain leverage, banking on Israel's lack of "strategic patience" for indefinite occupation. He explores the idea of a "Tale of Two Gazas," where Israel controls 53% and Hamas 47%, warning that reconstruction aid is improbable if Hamas remains in power. He highlights growing dangers, including the rearming of Hezbollah by Iran and unexpectedly Turkey, forcing Israel to reconsider the northern front. He adds that the Israeli military is actively engaged in "constant gardening" to address armed gangs in the West Bank. 1045-1100 Hamas Leverage, Gaza Ruin, and Hezbollah Rearmament. Jonathan Schanzer explains that Hamas is stalling hostage releases to maintain leverage, banking on Israel's lack of "strategic patience" for indefinite occupation. He explores the idea of a "Tale of Two Gazas," where Israel controls 53% and Hamas 47%, warning that reconstruction aid is improbable if Hamas remains in power. He highlights growing dangers, including the rearming of Hezbollah by Iran and unexpectedly Turkey, forcing Israel to reconsider the northern front. He adds that the Israeli military is actively engaged in "constant gardening" to address armed gangs in the West Bank. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 The Rise of Extremist Politics in the US and UK. Joseph Sternberg analyzes the rise of extreme political figures like New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, warning conservatives that opponents' political mistak 1115-1130 The Rise of Extremist Politics in the US and UK. Joseph Sternberg analyzes the rise of extreme political figures like New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, warning conservatives that opponents' political mistakes do not guarantee their success, citing the UK's Jeremy Corbyn as a parallel. He notes that frustrated voters seek "sledgehammers" on both the left and right. In the UK, he details how Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Labour government are suffering plummeting approval due to economic mismanagement, forcing tax hikes and breaking promises, benefiting Nigel Farage's Reform UK party. 1130-1145 Nuclear Testing, Venezuela Buildup, and Gaza Occupation. Colonel Jeff McCausland criticizes Secretary Hegseth's suggestion that resuming nuclear testing would make nuclear war "less likely," noting that the US deterrent is already credible and testing would destabilize adversaries. He highlights the excessive US military buildup near Venezuela, questioning the post-intervention mission, referencing the "Pottery Barn theory." Regarding Gaza, he suggests the potential creation of "two Gazas" leads to an indefinite, burdensome Israeli occupation and creates a breeding ground for future insurgency. 1145-1200 Nuclear Testing, Venezuela Buildup, and Gaza Occupation. Colonel Jeff McCausland criticizes Secretary Hegseth's suggestion that resuming nuclear testing would make nuclear war "less likely," noting that the US deterrent is already credible and testing would destabilize adversaries. He highlights the excessive US military buildup near Venezuela, questioning the post-intervention mission, referencing the "Pottery Barn theory." Regarding Gaza, he suggests the potential creation of "two Gazas" leads to an indefinite, burdensome Israeli occupation and creates a breeding ground for future insurgency. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley discusses Trump's order for military action in Nige. 1215-1230 Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley discusses Trump's order for military  1230-1245 Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley discusses Trump's order for military action in Nigeria, noting the violence is complex and not strictly genocide against Christians, contrasting it with US refusal to provide past aid. Discussion shifts to the overwhelming US military buildup near Venezuela, which might force Maduro's departure by damaging his credibility, possibly via anti-narcotics action. The interview concludes by analyzing the anticlimactic Trump-Xi meeting, attributing the lack of confrontation to Xi Jinping's significantly weakened position due to China's shattered economy and internal power struggles. 1245-100 AM Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley d

Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury Secretary Bessent asserts that housing is in recession due to high Federal Reserve rates. Peek argues that lower rates are needed to "unstick" the housing market. The Fed, led by Jay Powell, is fixated on inflation, though Peek questions his rationale regarding tariffs and labor demand. The conversation also covers the Trump-Xi meeting, which was anticlimactic, postponing confrontation for a year. Key concessions included China relenting on rare earth exports and American soybean boycotts. GRAND CENTRAL 1890

Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury Secretary Bessent asserts that housing is in recession due to high Federal Reserve rates. Peek argues that lower rates are needed to "unstick" the housing market. The Fed, led by Jay Powell, is fixated on inflation, though Peek questions his rationale regarding tariffs and labor demand. The conversation also covers the Trump-Xi meeting, which was anticlimactic, postponing confrontation for a year. Key concessions included China relenting on rare earth exports and American soybean boycotts. FIVE POINTS

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at buying opportunities approaching year-end, as U.S. trade policy and the Fed find middle ground. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing recent macro events and third quarter earnings results.It's Monday, November 3rd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week marked the passage of two key macro events: the meeting on trade between Presidents Trump and Xi and the October Fed meeting. On the trade front, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China by 10 percent and delay newly proposed tech export controls for a year. In exchange, China agreed to pause its proposed export controls on rare earths, and resume soybean purchases while cracking down on fentanyl. This is a major positive relative to how developments could have gone following the sharp escalation a few weeks ago, and markets have responded accordingly.With respect to the Fed meeting, Powell suggested policy is not on a preset course which took the bond market probability of a December rate cut down from 92 percent before the meeting to 68 percent currently. It also led to some modest consolidation in equity prices while breadth remained very weak. In my view, the market is saying that if growth holds up but the Fed only cuts rates modestly, leadership is likely to remain narrow and up the quality curve.Over the next 6 to 12 months, we think moderate weakness in lagging labor data, and a stronger than expected earnings backdrop ultimately sets the stage for a broadening in market leadership. However, we are also respectful of the signals the markets are sending in the near term. This means it's still too early to press the small cap/low quality/deep cyclical rotation trade until the Fed shows a clear willingness to get ahead of the curve. Perhaps just as important for markets was the Fed's decision to end Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in December.Recently, Jay Powell has acknowledged the potential for rising stress in the funding markets and indicated the Fed could end QT sooner rather than later. Over the past month, expectations for the timing of this QT termination ranged from immediately to as late as February. Powell seemed to split the difference at last week's meeting and this could be viewed as disappointing to some market participants.In order to monitor this development, I will be watching how short-term funding markets behave. Specifically, overnight repo usage has been on the rise and if that continues along with the widening spreads between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and fed funds, I believe equity markets are likely to trade poorly, especially in some of the more speculative areas. In short, we think higher quality areas of the market are likely to continue to outperform until this dynamic is settled.Meanwhile, earnings season is in full swing and the real standout has been the upside in revenue surprises, which is currently more than double the historical run-rate. We think this could provide further support that our rolling recovery thesis is under way which leads to much better earnings growth than most are expecting.Bottom line, we are gaining more confidence in our core view that a new bull market began in April with the end of the rolling recession and the beginning of a new cycle. This means higher and broader earnings growth in 2026 and a potentially different leadership in the equity market. The full broadening out to lower quality, smaller capitalization stocks is being held back by a Fed that continues to fight inflation; perhaps not realizing how much the private economy and average consumer needs lower rates for this rolling recovery to fully blossom. Last week's Fed meeting could be disappointing in that regard in the short run for equity markets. As a result, stay up the quality curve until we get more clarity on the timing of a more dovish path by the Fed and look for stress in funding markets as a possible buying opportunity into year end.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Treasuries extended losses after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said a December interest-rate cut was not set in stone, even after delivering a widely expected quarter-point reduction to prop up the labor market. The central bank reduced its benchmark lending rate to 3.75%-4% in its second straight cut — though two officials dissented. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it,” Powell said in the opening comments of his press conference. In their post-meeting statement, Fed policymakers on Wednesday repeated their assessment that “job gains have slowed” and said “risks to employment rose in recent months.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Treasuries extended losses after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said a December interest-rate cut was not set in stone, even after delivering a widely expected quarter-point reduction to prop up the labor market. The central bank reduced its benchmark lending rate to 3.75%-4% in its second straight cut — though two officials dissented. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it,” Powell said in the opening comments of his press conference. In their post-meeting statement, Fed policymakers on Wednesday repeated their assessment that “job gains have slowed” and said “risks to employment rose in recent months.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In today's episode, Kip dives straight into the market action following a pivotal day for investors a fresh rate cut from the Fed and a press conference from Chairman Jay Powell that sent Wall Street into a tailspin. Kip breaks down why Powell's comments weren't as significant as the headlines suggest, emphasizing that the recent volatility is mostly a shakeout in an overheated market, with emotions running high and bullish sentiment everywhere. We also get a rapid fire review of earnings from tech giants Meta, Microsoft, and Google, with Kip giving his insight into why Meta and Microsoft shares dipped despite solid results and what Google's historic revenue quarter means for investors. Plus, Kip shares his take on the ongoing government shutdown, its unexpected market boost, and eye-opening revelations about federal benefits distribution. Tune into today's podcast to learn more. 

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 297 for an in-studio appearance. Bianco argues the Fed is making a policy error by cutting rates when financial markets are at all-time highs across the board—stocks, gold, bonds, M2, and home prices. He explains that job creation has slowed from 158,000 to 29,000 per month not because the economy is weak, but because immigration has essentially stopped, reducing population growth to an 80-year low—meaning 29,000 jobs may actually be appropriate. Bianco warns that cutting rates in this environment risks recreating inflation through two key channels: tariffs (average rates up 6x to 17-18%) and remote work (giving labor more power to demand higher wages). He sees dangerous concentration in AI stocks (41 companies representing 47% of S&P 500 market cap) reminiscent of late-1990s bubble dynamics, with aggressive retail buying and passive flows creating mispricing that could end badly when the "buy the dip" mentality finally breaks.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/juliaLinks: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch 0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco - first in-person episode0:27 Big picture macro view1:18 Jobs market slowdown - 158K to 29K jobs/month2:18 Immigration and population growth collapse3:04 How many jobs should we be creating?4:34 Is the Fed making a policy error by cutting?6:35 Risk of recreating inflation with rate cuts7:28 Tariffs update - average rate up 6x to 17-18%9:00 Remote work as inflation driver10:32 Labor power shift and wage pressure13:00 Where will new workers come from?15:00 What would you ask Jay Powell at FOMC?17:05 What problem does cutting rates actually fix?18:15 Market behavior - everything going up19:08 The 60/40 portfolio debate20:00 Passive bid and perpetual motion machine21:25 Retail buying the dip aggressively23:02 AI concentration - 41 companies = 47% of market cap25:00 Data center overbuilding risk25:59 Opening your statements - everything looks great27:28 Top 10% making 50% of all income29:21 Inflation destroys cultures and economies30:00 Would you trade higher unemployment for lower inflation?33:17 Inflating our way out of debt problem34:19 Jay Powell's "do your patriotic duty" speeches in 202236:23 Story of interviewing for Fed Governor position39:11 Judy Shelton coming up one vote short41:28 Who will be next Fed Chair?42:51 Why Kevin Hassett is the leading choice45:30 Where to find Jim's work and the WTBN ETF

Today's guest is Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Funds and serves as portfolio manager of the firm's deep value strategy. He's just released a book called Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking. In today's episode, Toby starts by discussing the current valuation landscape and the challenge for small cap investors. Then he explores the intersection of Warren Buffett's investment philosophy with Sun Tzu's teachings. He walks through notable investment case studies, including General Re, Burlington Northern and Japanese trading houses. The case studies all convey the significance of patience, strategic thinking, and the pursuit of asymmetric opportunities in investing, while also addressing the psychological aspects that influence investor behavior. (0:34) Introduction of Tobias Carlisle (1:32) Value investing in current market conditions (4:04) Market outlook and valuation differences across cap-sizes (10:03) Jay Powell's recent comments (13:57) Toby's new book (19:54) The Gen Re investment (26:33) Buffett's investment in Japan and Apple (32:57) Buffett's investment principles and managing FOMO (42:30) Comparing low volatility and high beta stocks ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

PREVIEW. Guest Name: Elizabeth Peek Summary: Elizabeth Peek critiques the Federal Reserve's lack of independence and Jay Powell's delayed interest rate cuts, which have adversely affected the housing market and small businesses. 1917 FED BOARD

This week, Bob takes on the hot-button debate over Federal Reserve “independence” in light of Trump's moves against Fed Governor Lisa Cook. He explains why the Fed has never truly been independent, drawing on the Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951 and the institution's long history of serving political power. Recalling Elizabeth Warren's attacks on Jay Powell to insider trading scandals among Fed officials, Bob exposes the hypocrisy of politicians and media figures who cry about independence only when it suits them. He also highlights how the Fed's structure—unanimous FOMC votes, backroom bailouts, and secrecy over bank rescues—makes it clear the central bank is not a neutral force, but a political engine of inflation and business cycles.A Comprehensive Case for Ending the Fed: Mises.org/HAP516aShould Economists Champion Fed “Independence”?: Mises.org/HAP516bThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Hayek for the 21st Century. Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

#MARKETS:   LIZ PEEK THE HILL. FOX NEWS AND FOX BUSINESS: Elizabeth Peek: Elizabeth Peek examines the persistent tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve, observing that Chairman Jay Powell's actions are often perceived as politically motivated. She attributes high inflation during the Biden years to belated rate hikes and points to a "bound up housing market" due to past low mortgage rates and current high rates, making housing unaffordable. Peek highlights the underestimated, rapid impact of AI, noting its widespread adoption (700 million weekly ChatGPT users) indicates genuine, impactful companies rather than a bubble. She also supports Trump's proposal for addressing homelessness via dedicated facilities. 1808 BANK OF ENGLAND

CONTINUED #MARKETS:   LIZ PEEK THE HILL. FOX NEWS AND FOX BUSINESS Elizabeth Peek: Elizabeth Peek examines the persistent tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve, observing that Chairman Jay Powell's actions are often perceived as politically motivated. She attributes high inflation during the Biden years to belated rate hikes and points to a "bound up housing market" due to past low mortgage rates and current high rates, making housing unaffordable. Peek highlights the underestimated, rapid impact of AI, noting its widespread adoption (700 million weekly ChatGPT users) indicates genuine, impactful companies rather than a bubble. She also supports Trump's proposal for addressing homelessness via dedicated facilities. 1772 LONDON AT WESTMINSTER BRIDGE

Two-year Treasury yields set a new almost-year low, falling below their prior April chaos lows. The yield curve is undergoing a profound reshaping that explains a lot more than Jay Powell's Jackson Hole performance. It also perfectly indicates what long-run interest rates are also doing as well as likely to do moving forward.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Erahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-erahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Presented by EyeCare Professionals, Luva Wine Room, and Heartland Catfish - Jay Powell shares his thoughts on Brian O'Connor, and how a few State pitchers performed in the Cape Cod League.

Consumer fears over jobs increased yet again in August, as did expectations for a recession. Relatedly, two separate sources confirmed housing prices in the US fell yet again in their latest monthly estimates. Related because the one is causing the other; fears over jobs that aren't strictly fears are reducing demand for homes and a whole lot more. Deep down, even Jay Powell knows it.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jay Powell's August 2025 Jackson Hole speechhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdfConference Board August 2025 consumer confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/Bloomberg Weak US Housing Outlook Sends Australia's Reece Tumblinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-25/reece-tumbes-lithium-optimism-us-stocks-australia-briefinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There were several key points from Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole which everyone seems to have missed. The market picked up on them, however, with SOFR futures reacting by pushing its inversion deeper and further out, now early 2027. What Chair Powell meant under everything he said was he finally gets the big Beveridge risk.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speechhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Brinker International, which owns casual dining chain Chili's, just beat 50-year sales and revenue records. In this fickle economic moment, how'd they do it? The answer involves viral fried mozzarella and the power of young consumers. Also in this episode: Jay Powell hints at rate cuts, AI data centers increase electricity costs for everyone, and automakers swear updated tech, not tariffs, drove up prices.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Brinker International, which owns casual dining chain Chili's, just beat 50-year sales and revenue records. In this fickle economic moment, how'd they do it? The answer involves viral fried mozzarella and the power of young consumers. Also in this episode: Jay Powell hints at rate cuts, AI data centers increase electricity costs for everyone, and automakers swear updated tech, not tariffs, drove up prices.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Jay Powell vs. Ronald McDonald? The FOMC yesterday published the minutes of its July meeting which showed a majority of officials believe inflation is the country's greatest threat. So, it was a huge shock when the world's biggest fast-food joint reported - ON THE SAME DAY - it was doing the opposite. Even the FOMC "majority" isn't as solid as it is made to appear, as the minutes also contained one observation that really does align with these real economy facts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here here: monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------FOMC Minutes for July 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250730.pdfFox Business McDonald's to slash combo meal prices to win back budget-conscious shoppershttps://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/mcdonalds-slash-combo-meal-prices-win-back-budget-conscious-shoppersCNN McDonald's is cutting prices of its combo meals to convince customers it's affordable againhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/08/20/food/mcdonalds-combo-lower-pricesBloomberg Fed Chair Contender Bullard Backs 100 Basis Points of 2025 Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/fed-chair-contender-bullard-backs-100-basis-points-of-2025-cutsBloomberg US Stocks Extend Slide as Walmart Misses, Jobless Claims Risehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/us-equity-futures-fall-as-walmart-misses-jobless-claims-risehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Trump knows that the Supreme Court, based on a May decision,  won't support him out and out firing “without cause” —like fraud or a crime—the Federal Reserve Chair and the nation's central banker Jay Powell. Michael Popok calls out Trump's efforts to use the F word (fraud) against Powell as he walks around with a firing letter in his back pocket, and why it will backfire with the electorate..and the US economy. Qualia: Head to https://qualialife.com/LEGALAF and use promo code: LEGALAF at checkout for 15% off your purchase! Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast The Influence Continuum: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-influence-continuum-with-dr-steven-hassan Mea Culpa with Michael Cohen: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/mea-culpa-with-michael-cohen The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show Burn the Boats: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/burn-the-boats Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 Political Beatdown: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/political-beatdown On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Coalition of the Sane: https://meidasnews.com/tag/coalition-of-the-sane Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Note: A version of this episode first ran in 2023.Every year, the U.S. government spends more money than it takes in. In order to fund all that spending, the country takes on debt. Congress has the power to limit how much debt the U.S. takes on. Once we reach that limit, Congress has a few options so that the government keeps paying its bills: Raise the debt limit, suspend it, or eliminate it entirely. Which is daunting, because if lawmakers don't figure something out in time, the ramifications for the global economy could be huge. Shai Akabas, of the Bipartisan Policy Center, has become something of the go-to expert in calculating the exact date America would hit the wall and not be able to pay all its debts. This day is so terrifying it has a special name, the X-Date. Today's episode is about how Akabas and Jay Powell — long before he became chair of the Federal Reserve — worked to create a system to determine the X-Date with the hope of helping us all never reach it.We also have an update on this year's looming X-Date, which could arrive as soon as this summer. Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy