Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

The latest escalation in the Middle East has reignited concerns over higher energy prices, inflation and the outlook for UK growth. But is this shock really comparable to the energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022?In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group Chief Economist Seb Burnside to examine how UK consumers and businesses are responding to renewed energy price pressures. Drawing on NatWest's unique customer data, Seb explains why this time looks fundamentally different from 2022, why households have proved more resilient than expected, and why the biggest risks may lie in business confidence and investment rather than consumer spending.Key takeaways* The latest energy shock is significantly smaller than the 2022 crisis.* Businesses are passing higher costs through more quickly than before.* Consumers have adapted by reducing fuel consumption rather than simply paying higher prices.* Mortgage refinancing remains manageable thanks to several years of wage growth.* Inflation remains a greater concern than an immediate collapse in growth.* The biggest risk is that prolonged geopolitical uncertainty delays hiring and investment.* The UK economy continues to demonstrate greater resilience than many expected.Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuest: Seb Burnside, Chief Economist, NatWest GroupThis episode was recorded on 15 July 2026

In this edition of Bondcast: Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Director of Innovation, David Greenwald, to explore one of the defining market themes of 2026: artificial intelligence. The discussion examines whether markets are pricing in AI-driven productivity too quickly, how AI could reshape inflation and central bank thinking, and why governments are increasingly viewing AI as a strategic geopolitical asset.Key takeaways* Markets remain optimistic about AI, but significant uncertainty surrounds the timing and scale of productivity gains.* Infrastructure bottlenecks could keep AI investment inflationary before productivity becomes disinflationary.* The largest productivity gains are already emerging in software development and routine knowledge work.* Governments are treating AI as a strategic national capability rather than simply a commercial technology.* Geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important driver of AI adoption, investment and market risk.This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

In this week's episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Giovanni Zanni to discuss what recent events mean for rates markets.Fresh tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher once again, forcing markets to reassess the inflation outlook and the likely response from central banks. At the same time, softer-than-expected US inflation data has eased immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve, while political developments in Italy and the UK continue to shape market sentiment.Key takeaways* Softer US inflation has significantly reduced expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike.* The Fed's policy review task forces could have important long-term implications for inflation targeting and monetary policy.* Markets are increasingly pricing another ECB hike, although the underlying macro data remains relatively benign.* The Bank of England continues to prioritise evidence of second-round inflation effects before tightening policy further.* Renewed geopolitical tensions remain the biggest short-term risk for inflation expectations.* Political developments in both Italy and the UK continue to influence European bond markets, with fiscal policy likely to become a larger market theme later in the year. Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuests: Giovanni Zanni, Chief Euro Area EconomistStuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this special edition of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group International Advisor Scott Livingstone to examine the geopolitical landscape and what it could mean for rates markets over the months and years ahead.Recorded against the backdrop of renewed strikes in the Middle East, Scott discusses why he still believes the current tensions represent a “bumpy off-ramp” rather than the start of a broader regional war, while highlighting the key political and military developments investors should monitor.The conversation then broadens to explore the US-China relationship, Taiwan, Europe's strategic position, emerging geopolitical winners, and the underappreciated risks that could shape global markets beyond today's headlines.Key takeaways:* A volatile path to de-escalation: neither the US nor Iran has the appetite for full-scale conflict, but investors should expect an extended period of uncertainty rather than a swift resolution.* Political calendars matter: US mid-terms, Israel's elections and domestic political considerations will increasingly shape geopolitical decision-making.* Taiwan remains a long-term risk: While China's military modernisation continues, domestic political events in both China and Taiwan may make 2028 a more consequential year than 2027.* Europe faces strategic choices: As global power becomes increasingly concentrated, Europe must decide what role it wants within a changing international order.* Middle powers could be winners: Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey may benefit from pursuing pragmatic, multi-aligned foreign policies amid growing geopolitical fragmentation.* Technology is reshaping geopolitics: Competition over semiconductors, resilient supply chains and increasingly, space infrastructure, is becoming just as strategically important as traditional energy security.This episode was recorded on 10 July 2026.The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh's testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season.Key takeawaysMarkets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East.Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how markets are assessing regional risk.US CPI will be a key focus, with expectations for a decline in overall consumer prices and lower year-over-year headline and core inflation rates.Chair Warsh's testimony before Congress may offer limited forward guidance on rates, but could provide more detail on the Federal Reserve's taskforces.UK markets are likely to focus on political developments, the next Labour leader, and the implications of the Chancellor appointment for borrowing and fiscal policy.Earnings season begins with financials, while the broader macro focus on hyperscalers and technology companies comes later in the month.Topics coveredMiddle East geopolitical risk and market risk premiumOil prices, shipping costs, and the StraitUS inflation and CPI dataFederal Reserve policy and Chair Warsh's Congressional testimonyUK politics, fiscal discipline, borrowing risk, and the Chancellor appointmentRachel Reeves' Mansion House speechCorporate earnings season, financials, hyperscalers, and technology companiesQuestions this episode helps answerWhat market themes matter most in the week commencing 13 July?

Oil prices are back in focus, markets are repricing central bank risk, and politics is adding another layer of uncertainty across Europe and the UK. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Oriane Parmentier discuss whether markets are moving too quickly to price further rate hikes – and what investors should watch next.In this episode, we discuss:Middle East tensions and oil prices: why renewed geopolitical risk has pushed markets to reassess inflation and rate expectations.ECB pricing: whether recent euro rates repricing has gone too far, and why July still looks too soon for a policy shift.Fed outlook: why short-term oil moves may complicate the picture, but still leave the Fed in wait-and-see mode.US inflation and growth: why higher oil prices could act as both an inflation impulse and a tax on the consumer.Bank of England risks: why the UK still faces the clearest upside risk to policy rates, even if hikes look more likely later than sooner.France and OATs: what Marine Le Pen's 2027 election intentions mean for French political risk and bond spreads.UK politics and gilts: why fiscal policy, borrowing risks and autumn policy announcements may matter more than near-term leadership headlines.Leverage ratio framework: what the Bank of England's latest consultation could mean for bank demand for gilts — and why it may not be a game changer yet.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Oil prices have retraced to pre-conflict levels following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) and the reopening of the Strait. But does that rebound accurately reflect what's happening in the real economy?In this special episode of Bondcast: Speakers Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest economist Aastha Gupta, who specialises in global trade, to examine whether markets have moved ahead of the underlying fundamentals. They explore why physical shipping flows remain well below normal, why freight and insurance costs continue to matter for inflation, and what this means for rates markets and central bank expectations.Key takeaways* Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, with oil prices returning to pre-conflict levels.* Physical shipping volumes have only partially recovered and remain well below pre-crisis norms.* Freight rates have eased but continue to trade above historical baselines, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.* Marine insurance and compliance requirements remain important bottlenecks to restoring shipping capacity.* Shipping demand remains resilient as firms continue to reroute cargo, build inventories and front-load trade ahead of tariff deadlines.* The recovery in global trade is likely to be gradual and uneven rather than a quick return to normal.* The gap between financial market pricing and physical trade dynamics suggests inflation risks may remain more persistent than markets currently expect.This episode was recorded on 30 June 2026.The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. It's a lighter but still market-moving calendar, with UK and French political risks, the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee report, the latest signals from the Fed and ECB, and renewed focus on dollar-yen intervention risk.

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack a deceptively important week for rates markets: a mixed US labour report, softer European inflation, central-bank caution at Sintra, and growing focus on the Bank of England's balance sheet and gilt market resilience. The big takeaway: markets may be pricing out near-term hikes, but the path ahead is anything but simple.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 2 July 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In the first episode of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, host Imogen Bachra is joined by James Bucknall and Iain Budge to discuss one of the most closely watched regulatory topics in UK rates markets: the leverage ratio framework.With the UK facing sizeable financing needs, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), and growing debate around who will absorb future gilt supply, the conversation explores whether changes to leverage rules could unlock additional demand from bank treasuries and support government funding markets.Topics raised:* The Financial Policy Committee's (FPC) July review of the leverage ratio framework is an important event for UK rates markets.* Changes to leverage rules could support Treasury Bill market liquidity and increase bank demand for gilts.* The gilt market itself remains resilient, with funding conditions holding up well despite episodes of heightened volatility.* Any easing of leverage constraints would likely benefit a broader range of assets, not just gilts.* Regulatory reform may become increasingly relevant as QT progresses and more duration moves onto private sector balance sheets.Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)Guests: Iain Budge (Head of Banks and Building Societies Solutions)James Bucknall (Head of Sterling Interest Rate Trading)The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.Recorded on 18 June 2026For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Palmentier to discuss rates markets in the UK and Europe.Key topics: * The sharp repricing lower in UK gilt yields and evolving Bank of England expectations* Whether markets are becoming overly optimistic on oil, inflation and fiscal risks* What to watch during next week's ECB Sintra conference* Euro area funding plans for the second half of 2026* What to make of French spreads despite renewed political focus Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)Guest: Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist) This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This video is about My Movie 1In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week's episode focuses on a pivotal week for global central banks as markets shift attention away from geopolitical headlines in the Middle East and back toward monetary policy. The discussion covers the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Bank of England's latest decision, the ECB outlook, and implications for global rates markets. Key takeaways:* The Fed turned more hawkish in Warsh's first meeting, despite no change in rates. Warsh avoided giving forward guidance, but the committee's dot plot shifted higher, leading markets to price in rate hikes sooner than previously expected.* Warsh announced five Fed task forces to review communications, balance sheet strategy, data usage, productivity trends, and the inflation framework. While these could eventually support a more dovish policy, they are unlikely to affect near-term decisions.* We now forecast 50bps of cuts in the US in 2027 rather than beginning in late 2026. * The Bank of England left policy unchanged and provided little new guidance, but persistent domestic inflation pressures and strong wage growth should not be overlooked.* The ECB's June rate hike is viewed as an insurance move rather than the start of an aggressive tightening cycle, with falling oil prices reducing the case for further hikes. Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)Guests: Ian VanderHorn (Macro Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist) This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Ian VanderHorn and Oriane Parmentier to discuss some key central bank decisions. They examine the latest developments from the ECB, previews next week's Fed and Bank of England meetings, and explore how geopolitical tensions, inflation dynamics and politics are shaping market expectations. Key topics: * The ECB remains data-dependent but has not closed the door on additional rate hikes.* Strong US labour market data complicates the inflation outlook but does not yet point to a significant inflation reacceleration.* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh will be closely scrutinised for signs of a shift in policy communication.* The Bank of England meeting may appear routine but could influence expectations for July and beyond.* Fiscal and political risks in both the US and UK remain important themes for rates markets in the second half of the year. This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026.  You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week on Bondcast, the team examines how fading optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and renewed tariff discussions are influencing rates markets. With major central bank meetings approaching, the discussion also turns to the outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Federal Reserve. Key topics: * ECB rhetoric has become more hawkish, but policymakers are unlikely to commit to a fixed hiking path.* The BoE remains cautious, with centrist policymakers showing little urgency to raise rates.* Fed officials continue to balance inflation and growth risks more carefully than markets may be assuming.* New US tariff proposals could create future headline risk despite limited immediate economic impact.* French political risk is gradually moving back onto investors' radar ahead of 2027.* Fiscal concerns remain a major structural challenge for the UK, particularly due to high debt servicing costs. Contributors: Imogen Bachra (host), Head of Economics and Markets StrategyOriane Parmentier, European Rates StrategistIan VanderHorn, Economics and Market Strategy at NatWest Markets This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Oriane Parmentier and Stuart Sparks unpack the key macro themes dominating fixed income markets following NatWest's Official Institutions Conference in Edinburgh. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continuing to drive market volatility, the discussion shifts beyond the headlines to explore how investors are thinking about inflation, growth, central bank reaction functions and fiscal risks across the US, Euro area and UK.Key themes discussedUS: Affordability versus inflationStuart outlines NatWest's view that the Fed could increasingly focus on growth and real incomes rather than maintaining a rigid 2% inflation target. The team discusses whether higher inflation tolerance may become a feature – rather than a failure – of future policy. Europe: Conditional ECB and structural steepening Oriane discusses why the ECB's tightening cycle may become increasingly data dependent, and why long-term funding pressures linked to defence, AI and energy transition spending could support steeper curves across Europe.UK: Inflation persistence and fiscal risk Imogen explains why the UK faces a uniquely challenging combination of sticky inflation, aggressive QT and elevated fiscal sensitivity. The conversation also explores why political uncertainty continues to matter disproportionately for gilt markets.This episode was recorded on 28 May 2026.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

In this episode of Bondcast, host Imogen Bachra is joined by global market specialist Ian VanderHorn to unpack the growing political and fiscal risks shaping UK and US rates markets – where 5% yields are now a thing.Key points:* UK political instability following poor Labour local election results* Risks of a Labour leadership challenge and implications for gilt markets* Why markets may be underpricing future UK borrowing* US tariff refund developments and worsening fiscal dynamics* Inflation persistence and implications for Treasury yields* President Trump's China visit and evolving US-China relationsThis episode was recorded on 14 May 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this special episode of Bondcast, we replay NatWest's live broadcast fireside chat and Q&A with Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who was joined on stage by Imogen Bachra, NatWest's Head of Economics and Markets Strategy.Recorded on 14 May 2026.

This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Parmentier to talk about rates in the UK and the euro area. They focus on:- The return of market optimism despite geopolitical risk - ECB outlook and how the market is pricing multiple hikes- Bank of England pricing, as well as fiscal and political risks in the UK- Client sentiment on rate rises in major economies- What to watch next week This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their analysis of three central bank decisions to hold rates.Key points:1. Federal Reserve rate hike prospects and dissenting opinions2. European Central Bank's conditional hawkish stance3. The Bank of England's cautious outlook and market expectationsThis episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their expectations ahead of three imminent central bank meetings.Key points:1. US economic data and consumer resilience2. UK inflation and labor market dynamics3. Fed, BoE and ECB policy forecasts4. UK political risks and fiscal policy5. Ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on marketsThis episode was recorded on 23 April 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack why easing geopolitical tensions have lifted risk assets – while rates remain more cautious.They explore the growing disconnect between equities and yields, with US data and Fed expectations back in focus as de-escalation shifts attention away from geopolitics. In the UK, the story looks different: persistent inflation pressures, fiscal risks, and gilt market dynamics suggest yields may stay higher for longer.The episode also dives into a key cross-market debate – why UK and ECB rate expectations are diverging – and whether markets are mispricing the path ahead. Plus, a look at the evolving outlook for the Fed amid political uncertainty, and what a potential shift in leadership could mean for rates.All wrapped up with the key risks to watch next week, from growth data and central bank signals to supply dynamics and the next phase of geopolitical developments.This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier talk about the delicate ceasefire between the US and Iran and explore the potential impacts on rates markets, inflation forecasts, and central bank policy expectations in the US, the UK, and Europe. This episode was recorded on 9 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's episode of Bondcast, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy Imogen Bachra shares edited highlights from NatWest's recent client webinar focused on the intersection of geopolitics, economic sentiment and market implications. Joined by Scott Livingstone (NatWest's International Advisor) and Ross Walker (Global Head of Economics) the discussion covers the ongoing Middle East conflict, its economic impact, and how markets and policymakers may respond.Key discussion points:- Current phase of the Middle East conflict and the shift to “Plan B”.- Three potential US strategies: rapid declaration of victory, compelling Iran to a deal, or a prolonged campaign of military pressure.- Key indicators to watch: US force positioning, US-Israel alignment, and the actions of regional actors like the Houthis- Updated growth forecasts and inflation expectations- Bank of England likely to lean towards modest rate hikes in the second half of the year; limited scope for early cuts.- Markets are pricing in potential rate hikes, but the timing may be later than current expectations.- UK gilt markets remain sensitive to fiscal credibility and geopolitical developments.This episode was recorded on 31 March 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Despite fears that the war in the Middle East will drive inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Europe held rates this week. To discuss why, Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) is joined by Ian VanderHorn (Economics and Market Strategy) and Giovanni Zanni (Chief Euro Area Economist) to dissect the latest policy decisions, and how their forecasts are changing. This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics & Markets Strategy) is joined by Ian Vanderhorn (Macroeconomics Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist) to provide a comprehensive update on recent geopolitical swings. They focus on higher oil prices, what this means for inflation, and how bond markets have reacted. Lastly, they share their expectations ahead of central bank decisions next week in the UK, Europe and the US. This episode was recorded on 11 March 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week's combined episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast focuses on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impacts on currency and rates markets. This episode features edited highlights from a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, featuring host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) and guests Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) and Paul Robson (Co-Head of G10FX Strategy). They discussed: - Management of ammunition and defence resources by regional players.- Political pressure on President Trump to conclude this initial phase swiftly.- Expected continuation of heightened military activity over the next few days.- Monitoring Iranian missile, drone, and maritime operations, including possible threats to the Strait of Hormuz.- Indicators for de-escalation: signs of pragmatic politics or regional diplomatic intervention.- Importance of maritime security in global energy markets.- Currency markets responding as expected: dollar strength sterling resilience in cross-currency pairs.- Volatility in bond markets reflecting both safe-haven demand and concerns over defence spending and future inflation.- Key market drivers to watch.This episode was recorded on 3 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this crossover episode of Bondcast and its sister show Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to explore the recent Supreme Court decision on US tariffs, its implications for FX and rates market dynamics, and the future of tariff policy. This episode was recorded on 25 February 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn and market specialists Paul Robson and Oriane Parmentier discuss the passing week's developments in rates markets. In the UK, there was a sizeable amount of data to process, most notably on inflation. But how is the market reacting? Elsewhere, they discuss rising tensions off the coast of Iran, the price of oil and French bond market resilience.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 19 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn and market specialists Paul Robson and Oriane Parmentier discuss the latest developments in rates markets. They focus on political uncertainties in the UK, the implications of recent job market reports in the US and the Euro area's supply situation.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 12 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn is joined by Oriane Parmentier and Paul Robson to discuss policy updates in the US, the UK and Europe. The Bondcasters kick off this week's podcast with a review of the Bank of England's ‘dovish hold' on 5 February and take a closer look at the drivers behind recent upward drift in yields.The ECB followed the Bank of England with a rate hold of its own this week – and Oriane digs into what this could mean for the trajectory for rates in the months ahead.Finally, Ian discusses the latest news out of the Fed: Kevin Warsh's appointment as the new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell once his term concludes in May. Will Warsh's past views of Fed's mandate, and the way it uses its balance sheet, affect the trajectory for rates later this year and beyond? Tune in to find out.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 5 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's Bondcast, Joann Spadigam is joined by Stuart Sparks and Paul Robson to discuss policy updates in the US, the UK and Europe. Following a much-predicted 25 basis point cut by the Fed, there is still plenty to ponder on US monetary policy going into 2026. And with the Bank of England expected to also cut rates in December, how matched are the two monetary cycles? In Europe, of course, the story is quite different: a glut of supply and rumblings of a rate hike.    Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 11 December 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this special edition of Bondcast, host Tim Phillips is joined by Paul Robson, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks to ask what lies ahead in bond markets in 2026 – a year where the focus will be squarely on the Federal Reserve. They explore the challenges of elevated sovereign issuance, shifting bond demand, and the global repercussions of fiscal and monetary policy – looking at the UK, the US and Europe in the process. What might steepen curves, and what indicators should we monitor in 2026? Finally, the panellists each share their bond superhero names from the Agents of Yield universe...Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's Bondcast, Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Paul Robson to discuss the outlook for next week's interest rate decision from the Bank of England, as well as the implications of fiscal policy on the UK's monetary stance. They alsoshare insights from the recent Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a cut, and the European Central Bank's decision to hold rates.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 30 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

In this week's Bondcast, host Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderdorn to discuss rates markets. They analyse the UK's latest inflation figures and prospects for base rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance during government shutdown, and Europe, where inflation is at target, but France's credit rating has taken a knock.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 23 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, host Joann Spadigam and guests explore a change in the fortunes of fixed-income assets, led by gilts and comments from the Bank of England on monetary policy. They also delve into the political landscape in France, highlighting the challenges faced by the new government during the budget season. Plus ça change. Finally, they address the supply-demand dynamics in European markets, emphasising the role of overseas buyers and the concerns regarding duration mismatch in bond issuance.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 16 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

With fresh turmoil in the French parliament, this week's host Ian Vanderhorn is joined by guest Oriane Parmentier to talk about what might happen in the days ahead. They also analyse the likely path of OATs and how markets may react to further news. Lastly, they discuss the government shutdown in the US.This episode was recorded on 9 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to analyse what the US Government shutdown means for markets, and the data they rely on. They also delve into the political dynamics behind the shutdown, and the reaction in markets. But it's not all about the US... they also focus on the impact of pension fund transitions in Europe and what this means for bond markets there.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 2 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Bondcast, host Ian Vanderhorn and guests discuss recent monetary policy decisions made by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve. And while the policy rates delivered few surprises, there is still much for markets to think about. Paul Robson provides insights into the BoE's interest rate hold and the adjustments in quantitative tightening, while Ian analyses the Fed's recent rate cut, its forward guidance, and whether markets are in line. Finally, Oriane Parmentier concludes with an update on the German DMO's funding strategy and its impact on market dynamics.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 18 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Oriane Parmentier and Ian Vanderhorn to discuss key economic indicators and political developments affecting major markets. They focus on the ECB's dovish stance, challenges in France's budget negotiations, the potential for snap elections, Fitch's rating review of France and the current state of the US labour market and inflation. They also discuss expectations for Fed and Bank of England meetings, highlighting the implications of these factors on interest rates and market reactions.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 11 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

As the Bondcast team returns from summer, they discuss recent movements in rates markets, focusing on fiscal concerns in the UK, expectations for the upcoming Autumn Budget, the outlook for the US economy and Federal Reserve policy, political risks in France, and expectations for the European Central Bank's next meeting. To read Oriane's take on French political risk, click https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/political-standoff-in-france-scenarios-and-market-implications.html Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 4 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to our glossary:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

It wasn't the first cut in the cycle, nor at 25 basis points was it the deepest, but there was still plenty to talk about following the Bank of England's (BoE's) reduction to the Base Rate. In this episode, Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn to discuss a surprisingly hawkish cut by the BoE, and what impact recent payrolls data in the US might have on the Federal Reserve. They also address the economic outlook for Europe, particularly political risks emanating from France.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 7 August 2025, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Joann Spadigam, Kevin Cummins and Ian Vanderhorn focus on the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates in the US. They analyse the stance on interest rates, inflation and labour market conditions, as well as the US Treasury's borrowing plans. Lastly they discuss European bond curves and share their views on whether the Bank of England will cut rates next week. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 31 July 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, it's all about central banks. Host Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Deepika Dayal to discuss the ECB's recent interest rate hold, expectations for the upcoming US Federal Reserve rate decision and the next Bank of England monetary policy decision in August. They also talk trade and delve into US labour data.Remember to subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 24 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn take a closer look at the latest UK data and the potential impact on the Bank of England's thinking around rate cuts and quantitative tightening.They also dig into the latest US inflation print and shifts in US trade policy, unpack the market whiplash around media reports about Fed Chair Powell's fate, and look ahead to the forthcoming European Central Bank meeting.This episode was recorded on 17 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Bondcast, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks discuss the current state of tariffs and trade deals, particularly in relation to the US and Europe. Might markets be underestimating recent developments? They also analyse why US monetary policy and fiscal policy need to find an equilibrium, and explore the impact of demographic changes on debt sustainability. The discussion also covers the outlook for European markets amid global fiscal pressures and the potential for inflationary trends to complicate the picture.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 10 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Ian VanderHorn discuss recent developments in bond markets, focusing on gilt market volatility, the Bank of England's quantitative tightening, the US's big and beautiful budget bill and the European Central Bank's strategy. The discussion highlights the importance of fiscal credibility, market interpretation of economic data, and the potential impact of global factors on European rates.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 03 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins, Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks to discuss the recent geopolitical shifts and the impact on markets, particularly in relation to oil prices and investor sentiment. They delve into central bank policies, focusing on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and explore the implications for economic outlook and investment mindsets. They also cover the European landscape, highlighting supply risks and future projections for bond markets and fiscal policies.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 25 June 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html