Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

The Federal Reserve and Bank of England have both been in focus this week, with the Fed delivering a rate hike and the BoE keeping rates unchanged. In this episode, Imogen Bachra and Stuart Sparks examine what the decisions tell us about the outlook for inflation, interest rates and government bond yields – and why the BoE's latest quantitative tightening (QT) announcement could have longer-term implications for the gilt market.Key takeaways:* The Fed delivered a hawkish-leaning rate hike, with the Chair offering little forward guidance and emphasising that future decisions will depend on the evolution of inflation and economic conditions.* Markets are pricing a significant further tightening cycle, with close to 100bp of additional Fed rate hikes priced by the end of 2027. But the Fed's projections imply a surprisingly benign path for inflation, with a return to target minus a meaningful rise in unemployment. * The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting 6–3 in favour of no change. A November BoE rate hike remains the base case, although conviction has fallen.* QT was the bigger market-moving announcement. The Bank plans to continue active gilt sales at £20bn a year, but will change how those sales are conducted and which maturities are involved.* This could reduce some near-term pressure on long-dated gilt yields, however QT continues to create fiscal costs.Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuest: Stuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy This episode was recorded on 17 September 2026. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 14th of September. * Friday's US inflation data was sufficiently firm that it feels like a 25 basis point hike from the Fed next week looks like the path of least resistance. Our base case is still that this is a one and done move. We still see labour market weakness emerging into 2027, which could ultimately pave the way for rate cuts, but clearly persistently elevated energy prices present an upside risk to this view. * We have the BoJ at the end of the week that's likely to follow suit with a 25 basis point hike at its meeting, we think, but we're sceptical that Governor Ueda will offer much forward guidance beyond that – instead repeating what he said in July, that in-depth deliberations will be held at every meeting. From a markets perspective, this may be a little bit disappointing with participants left wondering what exactly it is that Treasury Secretary Besson knows that they do not. This might not be the sort of hawkish surprise that they were looking for. * The Bank of England could be the only major central bank not to raise rates next week, though we do look for the guidance to formally acknowledge upside risks to the inflation outlook, which would mark quite a hawkish shift from the July MPR, but it would reflect the tone from some of the central bank speakers at the Treasury Select Committee hearing last week. This could ultimately pave the way for a rate hike to be delivered in November, which is now fully priced by markets, but regular listeners will know that that's been our base case since March. More important from a markets perspective at the BOE meeting could be the annual vote on QT, and we see a greater risk than consensus that the pace is  maintained at £70bn compared with consensus that it will be reduced to £50bn. This could add another bearish catalyst for longer yields, which are now well above our long held 5.25% 10-year target. Global factors have been the main driver of that rise in yields, but we have long seen domestic reasons, both on the more hawkish monetary policy side, and the more bearish fiscal policy side that can't keep yields at these levels. * While we're on central banks, it's worth reflecting on the ECB last week that it was hawkish enough that we now see the short term terminal rate at 3% up from 2.5% previously. We think they will get there in the first half of 2027. But it's important to note that that's driven solely by credibility in the face of an energy shock, despite weak evidence so far of any contagion to core inflation. We did also upgrade our 10-year bund target from 3.3 to 3.6% both on the more hawkish ECB outlook, but also a bearish structural outlook into the end of the year. * Away from central banks, in the UK, it's also the big data week. It perhaps takes on a little bit less importance when it coincides with the week of the central bank decision, but nonetheless, it's another month of data on the inflation front and the labour market front that will feed into the BoE's assessment of the risks of second round effects. We see headline inflation ticking up. This is largely about energy prices. In fact, core inflation is expected to edge down, albeit that's largely a rounding error more than anything else. It doesn't change the fact that the long-term path we still think is towards higher core inflation into 2027, where we have a peak of 3.1%. Although central banks and inflation risks were the theme last week and probably likely to be the theme in the week ahead, we also remained squarely focussed on fiscal risks too. * Next week brings about a cabinet reshuffle in Japan and we'll most closely be watching whom is announced as the minister of state for economic and fiscal policy. And although there's nothing on the calendar as such, we'll watch any headlines related to potential policies announced in the UK as we near the Labour Party conference, as well as any other announcements from President Trump as we near midterms. Good luck.

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by market specialists Stuart Sparks and Oriane Parmentier to discuss the latest developments across the major central banks and what they could mean for rates markets.Recorded shortly after the ECB's meeting, the conversation begins with the central bank's latest 25bp rate hike and the implications of higher inflation and growth projections. The discussion then turns to the Bank of England ahead of next week's meeting, including the potential for a change in voting patterns, guidance and the pace of quantitative tightening.The US is also firmly in focus, with the Federal Reserve's September meeting approaching. The team considers whether the Fed could deliver a rate hike, the implications of recent inflation data and the potential tension between monetary policy and political pressure for lower rates.Finally, the conversation examines the US long end, including the latest treasury buyback operation and what its relatively modest size tells us about the authorities' intentions.Key takeaways:- The ECB is becoming more hawkish in its outlook- The Bank of England could acknowledge rising global inflation risks- Quantitative Tightening could be the more interesting BoE decision- The Fed is moving closer to a September rate hike- The long end remains vulnerable to structural inflation and fiscal risksHost: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuests: Oriane Parmentier, European Rates StrategistStuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy This episode was recorded on 10 September 2026. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers' Corner, host Imogen Bachra speaks to Deepika Dayal about one of the key questions surrounding the AI boom: will artificial intelligence ultimately be inflationary or disinflationary?Deepika explains why the answer depends heavily on the time horizon. While AI could deliver substantial productivity gains over the longer term, the enormous investment required to build the AI infrastructure is already creating pockets of inflationary pressure — particularly in semiconductors, computer equipment, storage devices and software.The conversation explores whether manufacturers can continue passing higher AI-related costs on to consumers, how AI subscriptions could affect inflation, and what economists should watch for to identify the point at which productivity gains start to outweigh the initial supply-side pressures.Key takeaways* AI's inflationary impact may come before its productivity benefits. The massive infrastructure buildout required for AI is creating demand for specialised chips, computing power and data centres, putting pressure on some technology prices.* Communication goods are behaving unusually. After roughly 25 years as a source of disinflation, prices for computers, smartphones, software, accessories and other information-processing equipment are showing pockets of upward pressure.* Chipflation could spread beyond technology. Semiconductors are critical inputs for industries including automobiles and smart appliances. If higher chip costs begin feeding into these sectors, the inflationary impact of AI could become considerably broader.* AI software is another potential source of inflation. Companies are increasingly monetising AI functionality through dedicated subscriptions and licences. Products such as Microsoft's Copilot illustrate how AI features that were initially bundled into existing software can become separately priced.* The impact on headline CPI may initially be limited. Communication goods have a relatively small weighting in the US CPI after decades of disinflation. However, the weighting is larger in the PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.* The key question is when productivity gains arrive. One early indicator could be wage growth. If AI allows businesses to increase output without proportionately increasing labour costs, wage growth could begin to moderate in labour-intensive service sectors without a corresponding increase in labour-market slack.Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuest: Deepika Dayal, US EconomistThis episode was recorded on 3 September 2026.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.   Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week: US market focus is squarely on the inflation data. Fed Chair Warsh clearly overweighted the inflation data relative to current employment trends in his reaction function, and Governor Waller's comments in the last week reiterated that point. The strength in the employment report on Friday has raised the bar for the Fed not to hike, but it still feels like a close call that will hinge on the inflation data. For anyone that missed it, following Chair Warsh's comments at Jackson Hole and the upside revisions to the PCE data, we have now revised our base case call and expect the Fed to hike in September. A 25bp hike by the ECB feels all but certain: recent communication and the July meeting account leave little doubt that the Governing Council is prepared to tighten again. The more consequential question is what comes next. With policymakers showing little appetite for strong forward guidance, the ECB is likely to preserve maximum optionality amid continued uncertainty over energy prices, inflation persistence and the durability of growth. Next week's data schedule (Sentix investor confidence, the third estimate of Q2 GDP and accompanying employment data) should give a clearer read on the composition and resilience of euro are growth heading into the second half of the year. In the UK, renewed upside pressure on yields this week brought a renewed focus on the fiscal risks. New Chancellor John Healey is set to give a keynote speech on Monday outlining the government's economic agenda, which could prove another crucial moment for the gilt market to reassess fiscal risks. We're still watching Japan, both in terms of potential fiscal and monetary policy shifts, but there is nothing specific on the calendar next week that is set to move the needle on either. We're more focussed on the week after, eyeing a potential government re-shuffle and of course the long-awaited BoJ meeting, where we now  expect a hike to be delivered.

In Bondcast's 250th episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by market specialists Stuart Sparks and Oriane Parmentier to assess a more eventful-than-expected Jackson Hole, the outlook for the Fed, next week's ECB meeting and the latest move in gilt yields.The discussion starts with the Fed's increasingly hawkish stance following Jackson Hole. Stuart explores what a conventional hiking cycle could mean for the rates curve, arguing that three further Fed hikes would push front-end yields materially higher and leave the curve flatter. But the bigger question is whether tighter monetary policy would actually be enough to bring inflation back to target.The team considers the possibility that the Fed could find itself “trapped” by persistent inflation: unwilling to generate the economic slack necessary to bring inflation down because doing so would risk a significant recession. Attention also turns to the ECB, where a September rate hike is now regarded as effectively a done deal. Oriane explains why the focus will be less on the hike itself and more on what happens afterwards, particularly as energy prices remain a source of upside inflation risk. Finally, Imogen examines the UK gilt market, following the brief move in 10-year yields towards her 5.25% target (caveats allowing). She argues that the recent sell-off was driven primarily by global rather than domestic factors, although higher yields have renewed concerns around the UK's fiscal position and debt-servicing costs. Key takeaways* Jackson Hole was more hawkish than expected, raising the possibility of a more conventional Fed tightening cycle, although the team's base case remains considerably less aggressive.* Term premium remains a key risk, particularly if markets conclude that the Fed is unwilling to tolerate the economic pain required to bring inflation sustainably back to 2%.* The ECB is expected to hike by 25bp in September, but the more important question is whether it pauses afterwards or is forced into further tightening by persistent energy-price pressures.* UK 10-year gilt yields have reached the 5.25% target. Global fiscal concerns, elevated borrowing costs and upcoming UK policy events could all keep pressure on the long end.* The UK fiscal outlook remains a significant source of uncertainty, with higher debt-servicing costs and borrowing already running ahead of expectations. Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuests: Oriane Parmentier, European Rates StrategistStuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy This episode was recorded on 3 September 2026. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week:* US jobs data takes a backseat: Non-farm payrolls remains important, but the market may react less dramatically following a more hawkish-than-expected Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh. He downplayed recent labour-market weakness and emphasised inflation, suggesting employment data may have less influence on the Fed's reaction function.* Eurozone inflation in focus: Germany and Italy publish flash CPI ahead of Tuesday's euro-area reading. Headline inflation is expected to rise, driven by higher energy prices, while core inflation should remain around 2.5%. A stable core rate would suggest an energy shock requiring only a measured ECB response. A renewed acceleration in services prices would carry greater significance for ECB policy, although recent French and Spanish data suggest this is unlikely.* UK inflation expectations: Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on Friday – the first MPC communication since July and likely the last before the September meeting. Markets will be looking for any change from his previous message that the BoE was not edging towards a rate hike.* Fiscal policy returns to centre stage: G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet Monday and Tuesday, with global growth, imbalances and sovereign debt on the agenda. Fiscal concerns are increasingly driving markets, from the US Treasury's policy moves to upcoming European budget decisions.* France remains under scrutiny: The first French presidential debate produced little to change the market's view of French fiscal and political risk. Further spread widening is likely to require a catalyst from the budget or political backdrop.* UK fiscal risks may be underappreciated: The UK's fiscal position could prove more worrying than France's as the Labour Party conference and October Budget approach. The return of Parliament from summer recess could increase political and fiscal headlines, particularly around potential Budget announcements. 

The US Treasury's surprise decision to double the size of its regular long-end bond buybacks has reignited debate about how governments can manage rising borrowing needs and weaker demand for longer-dated debt.In this episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Oriane Parmentier to assess what the Treasury's move is really designed to achieve – and whether it can do anything to address the underlying fiscal pressures facing the US.The discussion also looks at the UK's experience of reducing the average maturity of government borrowing, and why this may offer a warning to other developed markets. In Europe, France remains firmly in focus as investors assess its fiscal position, political risks and the outlook for French government bonds.Key takeaways:* Why the US Treasury doubled the size of its long-end buybacks* The move is more about market liquidity than curve control* The lessons the US and Europe can draw from the UK* Why shrinking average maturity may have limited impact on long-term yields* The structural forces pushing European curves steeper* What to expect from the Fed at Jackson Hole* Why the ECB looks increasingly likely to hike in September* The BoE is in less of a hurry to raise rates. Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuests: Oriane Parmentier, European Rates StrategistStuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy This episode was recorded on 27 August 2026.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. Top on the agenda is Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Warsh's speech will be watched for signals on rates, term premium and the Fed's response to pressure for lower yields. Markets will also assess fiscal consolidation efforts and continued heavy sovereign issuance. In Europe, ECB minutes and inflation data will provide further clues on monetary policy. Japan is also important, with stronger inflation supporting the case for a September rate hike, while Deputy Governor guidance will be key. In the UK, NatWest maintains its November rate-hike call despite reduced market expectations.

The latest escalation in the Middle East has reignited concerns over higher energy prices, inflation and the outlook for UK growth. But is this shock really comparable to the energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022?In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group Chief Economist Seb Burnside to examine how UK consumers and businesses are responding to renewed energy price pressures. Drawing on NatWest's unique customer data, Seb explains why this time looks fundamentally different from 2022, why households have proved more resilient than expected, and why the biggest risks may lie in business confidence and investment rather than consumer spending.Key takeaways* The latest energy shock is significantly smaller than the 2022 crisis.* Businesses are passing higher costs through more quickly than before.* Consumers have adapted by reducing fuel consumption rather than simply paying higher prices.* Mortgage refinancing remains manageable thanks to several years of wage growth.* Inflation remains a greater concern than an immediate collapse in growth.* The biggest risk is that prolonged geopolitical uncertainty delays hiring and investment.* The UK economy continues to demonstrate greater resilience than many expected.Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuest: Seb Burnside, Chief Economist, NatWest GroupThis episode was recorded on 15 July 2026

In this edition of Bondcast: Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Director of Innovation, David Greenwald, to explore one of the defining market themes of 2026: artificial intelligence. The discussion examines whether markets are pricing in AI-driven productivity too quickly, how AI could reshape inflation and central bank thinking, and why governments are increasingly viewing AI as a strategic geopolitical asset.Key takeaways* Markets remain optimistic about AI, but significant uncertainty surrounds the timing and scale of productivity gains.* Infrastructure bottlenecks could keep AI investment inflationary before productivity becomes disinflationary.* The largest productivity gains are already emerging in software development and routine knowledge work.* Governments are treating AI as a strategic national capability rather than simply a commercial technology.* Geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important driver of AI adoption, investment and market risk.This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

In this week's episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Giovanni Zanni to discuss what recent events mean for rates markets.Fresh tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher once again, forcing markets to reassess the inflation outlook and the likely response from central banks. At the same time, softer-than-expected US inflation data has eased immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve, while political developments in Italy and the UK continue to shape market sentiment.Key takeaways* Softer US inflation has significantly reduced expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike.* The Fed's policy review task forces could have important long-term implications for inflation targeting and monetary policy.* Markets are increasingly pricing another ECB hike, although the underlying macro data remains relatively benign.* The Bank of England continues to prioritise evidence of second-round inflation effects before tightening policy further.* Renewed geopolitical tensions remain the biggest short-term risk for inflation expectations.* Political developments in both Italy and the UK continue to influence European bond markets, with fiscal policy likely to become a larger market theme later in the year. Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets StrategyGuests: Giovanni Zanni, Chief Euro Area EconomistStuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this special edition of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group International Advisor Scott Livingstone to examine the geopolitical landscape and what it could mean for rates markets over the months and years ahead.Recorded against the backdrop of renewed strikes in the Middle East, Scott discusses why he still believes the current tensions represent a “bumpy off-ramp” rather than the start of a broader regional war, while highlighting the key political and military developments investors should monitor.The conversation then broadens to explore the US-China relationship, Taiwan, Europe's strategic position, emerging geopolitical winners, and the underappreciated risks that could shape global markets beyond today's headlines.Key takeaways:* A volatile path to de-escalation: neither the US nor Iran has the appetite for full-scale conflict, but investors should expect an extended period of uncertainty rather than a swift resolution.* Political calendars matter: US mid-terms, Israel's elections and domestic political considerations will increasingly shape geopolitical decision-making.* Taiwan remains a long-term risk: While China's military modernisation continues, domestic political events in both China and Taiwan may make 2028 a more consequential year than 2027.* Europe faces strategic choices: As global power becomes increasingly concentrated, Europe must decide what role it wants within a changing international order.* Middle powers could be winners: Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey may benefit from pursuing pragmatic, multi-aligned foreign policies amid growing geopolitical fragmentation.* Technology is reshaping geopolitics: Competition over semiconductors, resilient supply chains and increasingly, space infrastructure, is becoming just as strategically important as traditional energy security.This episode was recorded on 10 July 2026.The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh's testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season.Key takeawaysMarkets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East.Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how markets are assessing regional risk.US CPI will be a key focus, with expectations for a decline in overall consumer prices and lower year-over-year headline and core inflation rates.Chair Warsh's testimony before Congress may offer limited forward guidance on rates, but could provide more detail on the Federal Reserve's taskforces.UK markets are likely to focus on political developments, the next Labour leader, and the implications of the Chancellor appointment for borrowing and fiscal policy.Earnings season begins with financials, while the broader macro focus on hyperscalers and technology companies comes later in the month.Topics coveredMiddle East geopolitical risk and market risk premiumOil prices, shipping costs, and the StraitUS inflation and CPI dataFederal Reserve policy and Chair Warsh's Congressional testimonyUK politics, fiscal discipline, borrowing risk, and the Chancellor appointmentRachel Reeves' Mansion House speechCorporate earnings season, financials, hyperscalers, and technology companiesQuestions this episode helps answerWhat market themes matter most in the week commencing 13 July?

Oil prices are back in focus, markets are repricing central bank risk, and politics is adding another layer of uncertainty across Europe and the UK. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Oriane Parmentier discuss whether markets are moving too quickly to price further rate hikes – and what investors should watch next.In this episode, we discuss:Middle East tensions and oil prices: why renewed geopolitical risk has pushed markets to reassess inflation and rate expectations.ECB pricing: whether recent euro rates repricing has gone too far, and why July still looks too soon for a policy shift.Fed outlook: why short-term oil moves may complicate the picture, but still leave the Fed in wait-and-see mode.US inflation and growth: why higher oil prices could act as both an inflation impulse and a tax on the consumer.Bank of England risks: why the UK still faces the clearest upside risk to policy rates, even if hikes look more likely later than sooner.France and OATs: what Marine Le Pen's 2027 election intentions mean for French political risk and bond spreads.UK politics and gilts: why fiscal policy, borrowing risks and autumn policy announcements may matter more than near-term leadership headlines.Leverage ratio framework: what the Bank of England's latest consultation could mean for bank demand for gilts — and why it may not be a game changer yet.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Oil prices have retraced to pre-conflict levels following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) and the reopening of the Strait. But does that rebound accurately reflect what's happening in the real economy?In this special episode of Bondcast: Speakers Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest economist Aastha Gupta, who specialises in global trade, to examine whether markets have moved ahead of the underlying fundamentals. They explore why physical shipping flows remain well below normal, why freight and insurance costs continue to matter for inflation, and what this means for rates markets and central bank expectations.Key takeaways* Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, with oil prices returning to pre-conflict levels.* Physical shipping volumes have only partially recovered and remain well below pre-crisis norms.* Freight rates have eased but continue to trade above historical baselines, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.* Marine insurance and compliance requirements remain important bottlenecks to restoring shipping capacity.* Shipping demand remains resilient as firms continue to reroute cargo, build inventories and front-load trade ahead of tariff deadlines.* The recovery in global trade is likely to be gradual and uneven rather than a quick return to normal.* The gap between financial market pricing and physical trade dynamics suggests inflation risks may remain more persistent than markets currently expect.This episode was recorded on 30 June 2026.The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. It's a lighter but still market-moving calendar, with UK and French political risks, the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee report, the latest signals from the Fed and ECB, and renewed focus on dollar-yen intervention risk.

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack a deceptively important week for rates markets: a mixed US labour report, softer European inflation, central-bank caution at Sintra, and growing focus on the Bank of England's balance sheet and gilt market resilience. The big takeaway: markets may be pricing out near-term hikes, but the path ahead is anything but simple.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 2 July 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In the first episode of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, host Imogen Bachra is joined by James Bucknall and Iain Budge to discuss one of the most closely watched regulatory topics in UK rates markets: the leverage ratio framework.With the UK facing sizeable financing needs, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), and growing debate around who will absorb future gilt supply, the conversation explores whether changes to leverage rules could unlock additional demand from bank treasuries and support government funding markets.Topics raised:* The Financial Policy Committee's (FPC) July review of the leverage ratio framework is an important event for UK rates markets.* Changes to leverage rules could support Treasury Bill market liquidity and increase bank demand for gilts.* The gilt market itself remains resilient, with funding conditions holding up well despite episodes of heightened volatility.* Any easing of leverage constraints would likely benefit a broader range of assets, not just gilts.* Regulatory reform may become increasingly relevant as QT progresses and more duration moves onto private sector balance sheets.Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)Guests: Iain Budge (Head of Banks and Building Societies Solutions)James Bucknall (Head of Sterling Interest Rate Trading)The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.Recorded on 18 June 2026For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Palmentier to discuss rates markets in the UK and Europe.Key topics: * The sharp repricing lower in UK gilt yields and evolving Bank of England expectations* Whether markets are becoming overly optimistic on oil, inflation and fiscal risks* What to watch during next week's ECB Sintra conference* Euro area funding plans for the second half of 2026* What to make of French spreads despite renewed political focus Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)Guest: Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist) This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This video is about My Movie 1In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week's episode focuses on a pivotal week for global central banks as markets shift attention away from geopolitical headlines in the Middle East and back toward monetary policy. The discussion covers the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Bank of England's latest decision, the ECB outlook, and implications for global rates markets. Key takeaways:* The Fed turned more hawkish in Warsh's first meeting, despite no change in rates. Warsh avoided giving forward guidance, but the committee's dot plot shifted higher, leading markets to price in rate hikes sooner than previously expected.* Warsh announced five Fed task forces to review communications, balance sheet strategy, data usage, productivity trends, and the inflation framework. While these could eventually support a more dovish policy, they are unlikely to affect near-term decisions.* We now forecast 50bps of cuts in the US in 2027 rather than beginning in late 2026. * The Bank of England left policy unchanged and provided little new guidance, but persistent domestic inflation pressures and strong wage growth should not be overlooked.* The ECB's June rate hike is viewed as an insurance move rather than the start of an aggressive tightening cycle, with falling oil prices reducing the case for further hikes. Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)Guests: Ian VanderHorn (Macro Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist) This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Ian VanderHorn and Oriane Parmentier to discuss some key central bank decisions. They examine the latest developments from the ECB, previews next week's Fed and Bank of England meetings, and explore how geopolitical tensions, inflation dynamics and politics are shaping market expectations. Key topics: * The ECB remains data-dependent but has not closed the door on additional rate hikes.* Strong US labour market data complicates the inflation outlook but does not yet point to a significant inflation reacceleration.* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh will be closely scrutinised for signs of a shift in policy communication.* The Bank of England meeting may appear routine but could influence expectations for July and beyond.* Fiscal and political risks in both the US and UK remain important themes for rates markets in the second half of the year. This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026.  You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week on Bondcast, the team examines how fading optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and renewed tariff discussions are influencing rates markets. With major central bank meetings approaching, the discussion also turns to the outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Federal Reserve. Key topics: * ECB rhetoric has become more hawkish, but policymakers are unlikely to commit to a fixed hiking path.* The BoE remains cautious, with centrist policymakers showing little urgency to raise rates.* Fed officials continue to balance inflation and growth risks more carefully than markets may be assuming.* New US tariff proposals could create future headline risk despite limited immediate economic impact.* French political risk is gradually moving back onto investors' radar ahead of 2027.* Fiscal concerns remain a major structural challenge for the UK, particularly due to high debt servicing costs. Contributors: Imogen Bachra (host), Head of Economics and Markets StrategyOriane Parmentier, European Rates StrategistIan VanderHorn, Economics and Market Strategy at NatWest Markets This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Oriane Parmentier and Stuart Sparks unpack the key macro themes dominating fixed income markets following NatWest's Official Institutions Conference in Edinburgh. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continuing to drive market volatility, the discussion shifts beyond the headlines to explore how investors are thinking about inflation, growth, central bank reaction functions and fiscal risks across the US, Euro area and UK.Key themes discussedUS: Affordability versus inflationStuart outlines NatWest's view that the Fed could increasingly focus on growth and real incomes rather than maintaining a rigid 2% inflation target. The team discusses whether higher inflation tolerance may become a feature – rather than a failure – of future policy. Europe: Conditional ECB and structural steepening Oriane discusses why the ECB's tightening cycle may become increasingly data dependent, and why long-term funding pressures linked to defence, AI and energy transition spending could support steeper curves across Europe.UK: Inflation persistence and fiscal risk Imogen explains why the UK faces a uniquely challenging combination of sticky inflation, aggressive QT and elevated fiscal sensitivity. The conversation also explores why political uncertainty continues to matter disproportionately for gilt markets.This episode was recorded on 28 May 2026.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

In this episode of Bondcast, host Imogen Bachra is joined by global market specialist Ian VanderHorn to unpack the growing political and fiscal risks shaping UK and US rates markets – where 5% yields are now a thing.Key points:* UK political instability following poor Labour local election results* Risks of a Labour leadership challenge and implications for gilt markets* Why markets may be underpricing future UK borrowing* US tariff refund developments and worsening fiscal dynamics* Inflation persistence and implications for Treasury yields* President Trump's China visit and evolving US-China relationsThis episode was recorded on 14 May 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this special episode of Bondcast, we replay NatWest's live broadcast fireside chat and Q&A with Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who was joined on stage by Imogen Bachra, NatWest's Head of Economics and Markets Strategy.Recorded on 14 May 2026.

This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Parmentier to talk about rates in the UK and the euro area. They focus on:- The return of market optimism despite geopolitical risk - ECB outlook and how the market is pricing multiple hikes- Bank of England pricing, as well as fiscal and political risks in the UK- Client sentiment on rate rises in major economies- What to watch next week This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their analysis of three central bank decisions to hold rates.Key points:1. Federal Reserve rate hike prospects and dissenting opinions2. European Central Bank's conditional hawkish stance3. The Bank of England's cautious outlook and market expectationsThis episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their expectations ahead of three imminent central bank meetings.Key points:1. US economic data and consumer resilience2. UK inflation and labor market dynamics3. Fed, BoE and ECB policy forecasts4. UK political risks and fiscal policy5. Ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on marketsThis episode was recorded on 23 April 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack why easing geopolitical tensions have lifted risk assets – while rates remain more cautious.They explore the growing disconnect between equities and yields, with US data and Fed expectations back in focus as de-escalation shifts attention away from geopolitics. In the UK, the story looks different: persistent inflation pressures, fiscal risks, and gilt market dynamics suggest yields may stay higher for longer.The episode also dives into a key cross-market debate – why UK and ECB rate expectations are diverging – and whether markets are mispricing the path ahead. Plus, a look at the evolving outlook for the Fed amid political uncertainty, and what a potential shift in leadership could mean for rates.All wrapped up with the key risks to watch next week, from growth data and central bank signals to supply dynamics and the next phase of geopolitical developments.This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier talk about the delicate ceasefire between the US and Iran and explore the potential impacts on rates markets, inflation forecasts, and central bank policy expectations in the US, the UK, and Europe. This episode was recorded on 9 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's episode of Bondcast, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy Imogen Bachra shares edited highlights from NatWest's recent client webinar focused on the intersection of geopolitics, economic sentiment and market implications. Joined by Scott Livingstone (NatWest's International Advisor) and Ross Walker (Global Head of Economics) the discussion covers the ongoing Middle East conflict, its economic impact, and how markets and policymakers may respond.Key discussion points:- Current phase of the Middle East conflict and the shift to “Plan B”.- Three potential US strategies: rapid declaration of victory, compelling Iran to a deal, or a prolonged campaign of military pressure.- Key indicators to watch: US force positioning, US-Israel alignment, and the actions of regional actors like the Houthis- Updated growth forecasts and inflation expectations- Bank of England likely to lean towards modest rate hikes in the second half of the year; limited scope for early cuts.- Markets are pricing in potential rate hikes, but the timing may be later than current expectations.- UK gilt markets remain sensitive to fiscal credibility and geopolitical developments.This episode was recorded on 31 March 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Despite fears that the war in the Middle East will drive inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Europe held rates this week. To discuss why, Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) is joined by Ian VanderHorn (Economics and Market Strategy) and Giovanni Zanni (Chief Euro Area Economist) to dissect the latest policy decisions, and how their forecasts are changing. This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics & Markets Strategy) is joined by Ian Vanderhorn (Macroeconomics Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist) to provide a comprehensive update on recent geopolitical swings. They focus on higher oil prices, what this means for inflation, and how bond markets have reacted. Lastly, they share their expectations ahead of central bank decisions next week in the UK, Europe and the US. This episode was recorded on 11 March 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week's combined episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast focuses on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impacts on currency and rates markets. This episode features edited highlights from a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, featuring host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) and guests Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) and Paul Robson (Co-Head of G10FX Strategy). They discussed: - Management of ammunition and defence resources by regional players.- Political pressure on President Trump to conclude this initial phase swiftly.- Expected continuation of heightened military activity over the next few days.- Monitoring Iranian missile, drone, and maritime operations, including possible threats to the Strait of Hormuz.- Indicators for de-escalation: signs of pragmatic politics or regional diplomatic intervention.- Importance of maritime security in global energy markets.- Currency markets responding as expected: dollar strength sterling resilience in cross-currency pairs.- Volatility in bond markets reflecting both safe-haven demand and concerns over defence spending and future inflation.- Key market drivers to watch.This episode was recorded on 3 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this crossover episode of Bondcast and its sister show Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to explore the recent Supreme Court decision on US tariffs, its implications for FX and rates market dynamics, and the future of tariff policy. This episode was recorded on 25 February 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn and market specialists Paul Robson and Oriane Parmentier discuss the passing week's developments in rates markets. In the UK, there was a sizeable amount of data to process, most notably on inflation. But how is the market reacting? Elsewhere, they discuss rising tensions off the coast of Iran, the price of oil and French bond market resilience.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 19 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn and market specialists Paul Robson and Oriane Parmentier discuss the latest developments in rates markets. They focus on political uncertainties in the UK, the implications of recent job market reports in the US and the Euro area's supply situation.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 12 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn is joined by Oriane Parmentier and Paul Robson to discuss policy updates in the US, the UK and Europe. The Bondcasters kick off this week's podcast with a review of the Bank of England's ‘dovish hold' on 5 February and take a closer look at the drivers behind recent upward drift in yields.The ECB followed the Bank of England with a rate hold of its own this week – and Oriane digs into what this could mean for the trajectory for rates in the months ahead.Finally, Ian discusses the latest news out of the Fed: Kevin Warsh's appointment as the new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell once his term concludes in May. Will Warsh's past views of Fed's mandate, and the way it uses its balance sheet, affect the trajectory for rates later this year and beyond? Tune in to find out.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 5 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's Bondcast, Joann Spadigam is joined by Stuart Sparks and Paul Robson to discuss policy updates in the US, the UK and Europe. Following a much-predicted 25 basis point cut by the Fed, there is still plenty to ponder on US monetary policy going into 2026. And with the Bank of England expected to also cut rates in December, how matched are the two monetary cycles? In Europe, of course, the story is quite different: a glut of supply and rumblings of a rate hike.    Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 11 December 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this special edition of Bondcast, host Tim Phillips is joined by Paul Robson, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks to ask what lies ahead in bond markets in 2026 – a year where the focus will be squarely on the Federal Reserve. They explore the challenges of elevated sovereign issuance, shifting bond demand, and the global repercussions of fiscal and monetary policy – looking at the UK, the US and Europe in the process. What might steepen curves, and what indicators should we monitor in 2026? Finally, the panellists each share their bond superhero names from the Agents of Yield universe...Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's Bondcast, Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Paul Robson to discuss the outlook for next week's interest rate decision from the Bank of England, as well as the implications of fiscal policy on the UK's monetary stance. They alsoshare insights from the recent Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a cut, and the European Central Bank's decision to hold rates.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 30 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

In this week's Bondcast, host Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderdorn to discuss rates markets. They analyse the UK's latest inflation figures and prospects for base rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance during government shutdown, and Europe, where inflation is at target, but France's credit rating has taken a knock.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 23 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, host Joann Spadigam and guests explore a change in the fortunes of fixed-income assets, led by gilts and comments from the Bank of England on monetary policy. They also delve into the political landscape in France, highlighting the challenges faced by the new government during the budget season. Plus ça change. Finally, they address the supply-demand dynamics in European markets, emphasising the role of overseas buyers and the concerns regarding duration mismatch in bond issuance.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 16 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

With fresh turmoil in the French parliament, this week's host Ian Vanderhorn is joined by guest Oriane Parmentier to talk about what might happen in the days ahead. They also analyse the likely path of OATs and how markets may react to further news. Lastly, they discuss the government shutdown in the US.This episode was recorded on 9 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to analyse what the US Government shutdown means for markets, and the data they rely on. They also delve into the political dynamics behind the shutdown, and the reaction in markets. But it's not all about the US... they also focus on the impact of pension fund transitions in Europe and what this means for bond markets there.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 2 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Bondcast, host Ian Vanderhorn and guests discuss recent monetary policy decisions made by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve. And while the policy rates delivered few surprises, there is still much for markets to think about. Paul Robson provides insights into the BoE's interest rate hold and the adjustments in quantitative tightening, while Ian analyses the Fed's recent rate cut, its forward guidance, and whether markets are in line. Finally, Oriane Parmentier concludes with an update on the German DMO's funding strategy and its impact on market dynamics.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 18 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html