Podcasts about Warsh

半導體與記憶體成為本波市場賣壓重心，即使科技巨頭財報陸續登場，仍出現「財報優、股價跌」的反應。與此同時，FOMC 會後美債殖利率再度走高，中東局勢反覆再次推升油價。 本集邀請美國研究員 Ralice 與台灣研究員 Jat，解析 Warsh 主持下的聯準會政策轉向，以及 Microsoft、Meta、Alphabet、Tesla 最新財報，掌握 AI 變現、資本支出與自由現金流轉弱的關鍵訊號。

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4wwsHI5 David Bahnsen reviews this week's Fed meeting, noting some credible forecasts expected a surprise 25–50 bp hike, though the Fed ultimately held. He argues the Fed's rationale was unusually direct: financial conditions tightened without a hike as yields rose across the curve, and further tightening should prioritize stopping balance-sheet expansion after $200–$250B of added assets this year. Bahnsen contrasts camps calling for hikes because inflation has stayed above 2% with those citing falling TIPS-implied inflation expectations near 2%, while emphasizing Warsh's market-focused approach and opposition to investors “gaming” Fed guidance (“play the ball, not the referee”). Warsh rejects a Phillips-curve tradeoff, saying price stability and full employment are not in conflict and inflation harms labor markets. Bahnsen expects falling hike odds and is skeptical rates rise this year, viewing Warsh as reform-minded but incremental, independent from President Trump despite citing tariffs and oil-driven supply shocks. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:36 Why This Fed Meeting 03:36 Case for Rate Hike 05:12 Fed Transparency Shift 08:22 Markets Tightened Already 10:21 Balance Sheet First 14:11 Warsh Philosophy Shift 16:50 Hike Odds and Outlook 17:55 Independence and Politics 20:47 Closing Takeaways 22:44 Sign Off and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The bullish case for the AI capex spenders, rather than the receivers. Cybersecurity expert Ivan Tsarynny's AI warning after Anthropic discloses three of its models breached their testing environments. Plus, Brookings' Robin Brooks on how the market has corrected its misreading of the June Fed meeting.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Boucher fills in for Dutt, hosting an especially off-script edition of RenMac Off-Script, covering the biggest earnings and macro week of the summer, headlined by Kevin Warsh's dovish Fed hold. Neil Dutta argues the move reeks of a credibility problem that leaves the chair looking weak, with the long end selling off and a September hike increasingly likely as inflation—not growth—owns the Fed's reaction function. Jeff deGraaf puts a face on the momentum crash through the blow-up and rescue of Leopold's levered semis-versus-software trade, calling it a clearing event rather than the all-clear. The team also digs into rising global yields, energy's quiet leadership, tightening credit conditions, and Steve Pavlick's read on reconciliation, the debt limit, and the odds on the Clarity Act.

Welcome back to another episode of Financial Revelations – Sin of Retirement™ with David Szafranski! This week, David shares exciting updates from Nativos USA, where the missions boat Liberty is serving deep in the Amazon jungle alongside a nonprofit organization bringing more than 100 doctors and dentists to provide life-changing medical care to indigenous communities. If you'd like to learn more or support this incredible mission, visit nativosusa.org. David also provides an update on his book, The Sin of Retirement™. A small group study guide and companion workbook are currently in development, making it easier than ever for churches and groups to study the book together. Stay tuned for more details, and visit sinofretirement.com for the book, merchandise, and updates. In this week's financial discussion, David breaks down Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's second Fed meeting, where interest rates remained unchanged. He discusses why he believes this signals a less interventionist Federal Reserve that allows markets to function more naturally. David also shares his thoughts on inflation, energy prices, and why he believes Chairman Warsh's long-term leadership will benefit the economy, even as former Chairman Jerome Powell remains on the Fed Board. The episode also covers recent testimony from Dr. Anthony Fauci, including his repeated invocation of the Fifth Amendment and David's perspective on the broader implications. Finally, David discusses ongoing tensions involving Iran and why he believes geopolitical developments remain one of the biggest obstacles to a sustained market rally. Have a financial question or want David and his team to review your portfolio? Email Kory@epsf.com. Follow David on X (formerly Twitter): @skibucks1. To learn more about the Amazon well drilling project or support the mission, visit https://nativosusa.org. You can also visit https://www.gofundme.com and search "David Szafranski" to support ongoing mission efforts. Thank you for listening to Financial Revelations – Sin of Retirement™ with David Szafranski!

Those Long-Term Chip Deals May Not Be as Secure as Investors Are Led to Believe When you listen to memory chip companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology discuss their businesses, they often make it sound like customer contracts—some extending as long as five years—are essentially set in stone. Unfortunately, that's not entirely true. Yes, these companies have long-term agreements in place, but contracts in this industry are often renegotiated when market conditions change. If demand for memory chips weakens significantly, chip manufacturers have a strong incentive to work with their customers rather than strictly enforce every contractual commitment. The reason is simple: preserving long-term customer relationships is often far more valuable than maximizing short-term revenue. Imagine a customer that suddenly doesn't need as many chips because its own sales have slowed. If a supplier forces that customer to accept unwanted inventory, those chips may simply sit in a warehouse until demand recovers. By the time the customer needs additional chips, it may choose to reduce future orders or move business to a competitor that proved to be more flexible during difficult times. Competitors are always looking for opportunities to gain market share. If one supplier refuses to work with its customers, another is usually willing to offer better pricing or more favorable terms. Losing a major customer over a rigid interpretation of a contract can cost far more in future profits than making temporary concessions during a downturn. This isn't just theory and it has happened before. During the COVID-era, many long-term agreements were adjusted as demand shifted. Rather than forcing customers to take products they no longer needed, suppliers often renegotiated delivery schedules and purchasing commitments to preserve long-term partnerships. The same principle applies across many industries. Companies frequently modify or delay large commercial agreements when business conditions change. While contracts provide a framework, successful businesses understand that maintaining trust with key customers is often more important than enforcing every clause to the letter. Investors should remember that a signed contract does not necessarily guarantee future revenue will be recognized exactly as originally planned. Management teams often emphasize the value of their long-term agreements during earnings calls, but those agreements can evolve if market conditions deteriorate. At the end of the day, great businesses understand that customer relationships are built over years but can be damaged in a matter of weeks. In many cases, giving a customer flexibility during a downturn is a much better investment than insisting on strict contract enforcement. That's why investors should view long-term chip contracts as valuable, but not invincible.   Why Index Investing Could Leave You Disappointed Long Term I often hear people say, "Just buy the S&P 500 and forget about it. You'll be fine." While that sounds simple, investing is rarely that easy. Many investors don't fully understand how an index works or why it has performed so well in recent years. The S&P 500 has been driven largely by a handful of technology and AI companies. By blindly investing in the index, many people are simply participating in a momentum strategy without realizing it. Very little thought is given to what those 500 companies are actually worth. There is no effort to trim positions that have become extremely expensive or overly concentrated. As valuations climb, the index simply gives those companies an even larger weighting, leaving investors with greater exposure to the stocks that have already gone up the most. Some people respond by saying, "I won't put everything in the S&P 500. I'll diversify into other index funds." But once you go down that road, investing becomes much more complicated and you'll likely underperform the S&P 500. Should you own an international index? A European index? A bond index? A growth index? A value index? Small-cap funds? REITs? There are hundreds of ETFs and mutual funds to choose from. Now you have another challenge: deciding how much to allocate to each one. When your portfolio declines will you understand why? More importantly, will you know what to do next? Many investors don't, and that uncertainty often leads to emotional decisions at exactly the wrong time. This is why I prefer managing a portfolio of individual value-oriented stocks, combined with money market funds and selected real estate investment trusts (REITs). That approach still provides diversification, but I understand what each investment is worth and why I own it. In my view, that's a much better foundation than owning five or ten different index funds without truly understanding what's inside them or how they're valued. Another common argument for index investing is lower fees. While fees certainly matter, they shouldn't be the only factor. The number that ultimately matters is your total return after all fees and expenses. A lower fee doesn't automatically translate into better long-term performance. If you own index funds, take some time to look under the hood. Do you really understand what you own? Do you know which sectors dominate your portfolio, which companies make up the largest holdings, and how expensive those businesses are today? If the answer is no, don't assume you'll be comfortable when the market experiences its next major decline. Investors who don't understand what they own are often the first to panic, and that confusion can lead to costly investment mistakes.   The U.S. economy is still in much better shape than many people think. This week brought three major events for investors: GDP, PCE inflation, and the Federal Reserve meeting. While the headlines may have sounded mixed, the underlying data still paints a healthy consumer. Second-quarter GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, below economists' expectations. At first glance, that may seem disappointing. But when you look under the hood, the economy continues to show resilience. Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, increased 3.2% after a weak first quarter where it only climbed 0.5%. That tells me the American consumer is still in good shape, and that's one of the biggest reasons the economy continues to avoid the recession that so many have been predicting. Major drags on the headline GDP figure included government spending, which reduced growth by 0.14 percentage points, as well as the more volatile components of trade and the change in private inventories, which subtracted 1.01 and 0.67 percentage points, respectively. Inflation remains the biggest challenge. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, increased 3.3% over the past year. While that's an improvement from where we've been, it's still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. I continue to believe inflation will remain sticky until energy prices become more stable. Energy impacts transportation, manufacturing, and virtually every supply chain, so it's difficult to see inflation falling sustainably while energy costs remain volatile. The Fed, as expected, left interest rates unchanged. What stood out wasn't the decision, it was the growing disagreement among policymakers. The 3 dissents that voted for a 25-basis point increase highlight just how uncertain the economic outlook remains. When inflation is still elevated but the economy continues to grow, there isn't an easy policy answer. One thing I do like so far is Kevin Warsh's changes at the Fed. I like the simplified statement, the encouragement of differing viewpoints, and rather than projecting absolute confidence in economic forecasts, he has acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding them. That's a refreshing change. Economic forecasting has never been an exact science, and I would rather have a Fed Chair who recognizes the limitations of those projections than one who pretends they are precise. What's surprising is how quickly some of the talking heads have claimed Warsh already has a credibility problem. I don't see it that way. Credibility isn't about making bold predictions that later need to be revised. It's about being honest about what we know, what we don't know, and allowing incoming data to guide policy. The takeaway for investors is simple: don't let one headline drive your investment decisions. The economy continues to expand, consumers are still spending, inflation remains stubborn, and the Fed is navigating a difficult policy environment. Looking beneath the surface is often where you'll find the real story.   Leverage Is Fuel... Until It Becomes the Fire The last few weeks have been a reminder that leverage looks like a wonderful tool on the way up... but it's a devastating one on the way down. FINRA's new margin rules have effectively replaced the 25-year-old Pattern Day Trader rule, allowing traders with as little as $2,000 to make unlimited day trades using intraday margin. While this opens the door for more retail participation, it also means more investors have access to leverage, something that has historically magnified both gains and losses. This is a big problem considering FINRA margin debt climbed 49% year over year to another record in June of roughly $1.5 trillion. This comes as investor net credit balances have fallen to a record negative $1.06 trillion. In other words, investors collectively owe more on margin than they have sitting in cash accounts. For comparison's sake, in March 2000 this measure stood at a negative $0.13 trillion. That's an aggressive setup if volatility returns. We also saw this past week the spectacular collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused hedge fund, Situational Awareness, which shows what can happen when conviction is paired with excessive leverage. The near 25-year-old Aschenbrenner was painted as a genius with strong credentials like being Columbia University's valedictorian at age 19. His fund was launched in July 2024 and he had no experience managing money before that. Before this month's decline the fund had gains of more than 1,000% since inception. The fund used tons of leverage with some saying as much as 400% to build massive positions in AI and semiconductor stocks while shorting stocks in the software space like Adobe. The problem is when names like Coreweave, Nebius, and Sandisk fell more than 50% from their highs and the software stocks rallied, margin calls forced the liquidation of most of its public equity portfolio. The result was staggering considering the fund peaked at above $45 billion in assets and with the selloff they plunged to around $10 billion. This forced a fire sale of assets at a discount to Ken Griffin's Citadel. Some speculate that the forced selling may have helped create the bottom. Once one of the market's largest leveraged sellers had finished liquidating, the selling pressure eased and many AI stocks staged a sharp rebound. Others believe the selling is not over as Michael Burry reportedly used Thursday's powerful rally as an opportunity to increase several of his bearish positions in Micron, Nvidia and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Whether he's ultimately right or wrong remains to be seen, but it's a reminder that some experienced investors still believe AI-related valuations and leverage remain stretched.   Here Come the Robots! Robots have been making their way into manufacturing for decades. The first industrial robotic arm, called Unimate, was installed in 1961 on the assembly line at a General Motors plant in Trenton, New Jersey. But today's robots are very different. They're no longer just stationary robotic arms bolted to the factory floor, they're starting to look and move like humans. That reality is beginning to make workers uneasy. At a Hyundai Motor plant in South Korea, employees have gone on a partial strike, with concerns over automation playing a role. Hyundai recently unveiled its humanoid robot, Atlas, which stands 6'2", weighs about 200 pounds, can lift up to 110 pounds, and can continuously carry nearly 70 pounds. It's easy to understand why workers are wondering what these machines could mean for their jobs. South Korea is already the world leader in industrial robot adoption, with approximately 1,220 industrial robots for every 10,000 manufacturing employees. By comparison, the United States has around 307 robots per 10,000 workers. One statistic that surprised me was China, which currently has only about 166 industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. If Elon Musk has anything to say about it, those numbers could change dramatically over the next several years. Tesla is aggressively developing its humanoid robot, Optimus, with the goal of having it help build vehicles in its factories before long. If that vision becomes reality, other manufacturers will almost certainly follow. The idea of humanoid robots can be unsettling, but the transition is likely to be slower than many people expect. Industry forecasts suggest that global annual production of humanoid robots could reach roughly 1.2 million units by 2030. While that sounds like a large number, it's still a tiny fraction of the global workforce. So, we're probably still a few years away from living like The Jetsons. If you're not familiar with the cartoon, it debuted in September 1962 and imagined a future filled with flying cars and household robots. I guess I will have to wait a few more years to get a maid like the Jetsons had named Rosie the robot.   Financial Planning: Tax Relief Coming for Older Home Sellers? The federal home sale capital gain exclusion has remained unchanged since 1997, allowing homeowners to exclude up to $250,000 of gain if single or $500,000 if married filing jointly when selling a primary residence. With home values rising significantly over the past three decades, particularly in high-cost areas like California, many long-time homeowners now face substantial capital gains taxes when downsizing. A new proposal, the Nest Egg Protection Act, would increase the exclusion to $1 million for homeowners age 65 and older who have owned and lived in their home for at least 25 years. This would allow more seniors to keep the equity they've built over a lifetime. In addition to providing tax relief, the proposal could encourage more older homeowners to sell, increasing housing inventory and making homeownership more attainable for first-time buyers. While the legislation has not yet been enacted and homeowners should continue planning under current law, the proposal reflects a growing recognition that the existing exclusion no longer aligns with today's housing market.   Companies Discussed: International Business Machines Corporation (Ticker: IBM)

Afgelopen woensdag veroorzaakte de president van de Amerikaanse centrale bank (Fed), Kevin Warsh, de nodige verwarring bij analisten na zijn optreden op de persconferentie rondom het rentebesluit. Zijn houding zorgde opnieuw voor een vergrootglas op het handelen van de centrale bank, iets waar Warsh juist graag vanaf wil. Volgens econoom Arnoud Boot is er sprake van een 'Fed-verslaving' onder analisten.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mercredi soir, le marché était allongé sur la table d’autopsie. Warsh avait parlé une heure sans rien dire, le 30 ans tapait un plus haut de dix-neuf ans, les semis se faisaient défoncer pour la sixième séance d’affilée et on avait un vrai goût de correction dans la bouche. Puis Microsoft a publié. Et hier, … Continued

The Fed talked tough and did nothing. The 30-year hit a 20-year high. The Dow fell 1,100 points. Gold was the only thing left standing.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmTonight's episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly where they were before Kevin Warsh took over, despite a 30% market-priced chance of a hike and three FOMC members dissenting in favor of one. Peter Schiff breaks down a press conference where Warsh declared "no tolerance" for inflation above 2% while doing nothing about it, hiding behind the excuse that the Fed "doesn't have a magic wand." Nobody asked for magic, just for the Fed to use the tools it actually has: higher rates, a smaller balance sheet, slower money supply growth. Warsh delivered none of them, and Schiff argues he made the same choice as his predecessors. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed chose it again.The markets rendered their verdict immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.22%, its highest in roughly 20 years, the Dow fell 2.2% or about 1,100 points to close on the lows, and the Nasdaq 100 is now down over 3% on the week as the air keeps coming out of the AI bubble, with Meta down 10% after missing earnings and SanDisk off 30% in three days. Gold told the real story: it closed up $40 at 4,070 and never broke 4,000, because rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are bullish for gold, not bearish. Schiff calls gold the last safe haven standing. He also covers consumer confidence at a five-year low, a $101.5 billion June trade deficit proving the tariffs accomplished nothing, and why Mamdani's government-run grocery stores will empty shelves, bankrupt private grocers in the poorest neighborhoods, and recreate Soviet bread lines in New York City.Chapters:00:00 Debt Bubble Reality00:37 Fed Holds Rates Steady03:34 Two Percent Target Doubts16:05 Q&A Exposes Inaction27:38 Markets React Bonds Stocks Gold31:45 Yields and Gold Misread35:02 Gold Safe Haven Case37:40 Fed Fallout and Data43:12 NYC Government Grocers55:42 Capitalism and Wrap UpFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The progression from Alan Greenspan to Kevin Warsh is not simply a change in personality. It reflects four different views of how much the Federal Reserve should shape market expectations.At one end is the belief that ambiguity preserves flexibility. At the other is the belief that communication itself is a monetary-policy instrument. Warsh appears to be pulling the institution back toward flexibility, but in a market that has become accustomed to continuous guidance.Warsh seems to be drawing a distinction between transparency and prediction.The Fed should explain why it made today's decision. But that does not mean it should promise what it will do three or six months from now.There is also a concern that excessive guidance encourages too much risk taking.When investors believe the Fed has clearly mapped out the future, they may borrow short, lend long, buy duration, or sell volatility with too much confidence.A less predictable Fed may force investors to price risk more carefully.That may be healthier over the long term.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today, a look at the market's concern that this Fed isn't determined to get ahead of inflation and the impact on US treasury yields, which spooked market sentiment broadly in the US yesterday. Elsewhere, Microsoft's strong earnings report after the close is doing what it can to stabilize risk sentiment, even as the market soured further on Meta on its earnings call. Today and tomorrow feel high stakes with the negative shift in sentiment after the important FOMC pivot point, and Apple and Amazon are reporting after the close today. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links WSJ Fed reporter (no longer whisperer?) Nick Timiraos with a good quick take on the contradictory messages and takeaways from this FOMC meeting. Are the memory prices just too darn high? FTAlphaville takes a look. ArsTechnica reports that Anthropic's Mythos is finding bugs faster than Microsoft can fix them. Mike Green with a forensic investigation of the pump in semiconductor stocks in Q2 and to what degree leveraged ETFs were to blame (Behind paywall, but can be read for free as a one-off).  About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Kevin Warsh's second Fed meeting left investors questioning whether the new Fed chair is willing to back up his inflation talk with action.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why markets initially held up after the Fed left rates unchanged, how Warsh's press conference lost credibility with investors, and why the bond market reaction matters for mortgage rates, inflation expectations, and the broader financial system. They also discuss the weaker-than-expected GDP headline, why the underlying economic data looked stronger than the top-line number, and what Microsoft and Meta revealed about the AI spending boom. Plus, they explain why investors rewarded Microsoft's cost discipline, punished Meta's rising expenses, and what the blowup of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness says about leverage, risk, and the volatility behind the semiconductor trade.

Given the importance of the Federal Reserve to the global economy, I always watch the press conference after the Monetary Policy rate decision, the latest of which happened on Wednesday afternoon. Warsh evidently considering doing away with press conferences and on the performance we got, that may not be a bad idea. Actually, he spent … Continue reading "Is The FED All Talk And No Trousers?"

Fed maintained rates, though with 3 dissenters who favoured a 25bps hike. Chair Warsh said that if inflation remains elevated, rates could be part of fixing that.DXY came under pressure as the Fed failed to match hawkish expectations, though Warsh's press conference triggered pronounced UST curve steepening.US CENTCOM announced its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran; Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran.US after-market earnings saw results from ARM Holdings (-5.7%), Microsoft (+8.9%), Meta Platforms (-7.5%) and QUALCOMM (-4.7%).APAC stocks were mostly lower; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open. Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP Prelim (Q2), Spanish GDP Flash (Q2), Inflation Prelim (Jul), German GDP Flash (Q2), State/Nationwide Inflation Flash (Jul), Italian GDP (Q2), EU GDP Flash (Q2), Consumer Confidence Final (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), PCE (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25), Personal Spending (Jun), Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators (Jul), BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Jul). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Bristol Myers Squibb, Mastercard, Apple, Amazon, Adidas, BMW, Leonardo, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, SocGen, BAE Systems, British American Tobacco, Shell & Rolls-Royce.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

President Donald Trump van Amerika het die Federale Reserwe gekritiseer wat rentekoerse onveranderd gelaat het, en sê laer koerse sal die ekonomie verder versterk. Beleidmakers het met 9 teen 3 gestem dat rentekoerse tussen 3,5-persent en 3,75-persent bly. Die besluit kom te midde van toenemende onsekerheid oor die uitwerking wat die voortslepende konflik in die Midde-Ooste op wêreldwye oliepryse en verbruikerspryse sal hê. Trump sê hy ondersteun steeds die Federale Reserwe se voorsitter, Kevin Warsh:

Il y a des montagnes de choses à dire ce matin, alors on ne perd pas de temps : on va directement sur les sujets qui nous intéressent. La FED, Microsoft et Meta.

La Fed mantuvo tasas por quinta vez consecutiva, pero con la mayor fractura interna desde 2016: tres gobernadores votaron por subir ya. La inflación en México bajó a 3.10% en la primera quincena de julio, su cuarto dato a la baja. Y la noticia que redefinió la semana: dos modelos de OpenAI escaparon de su entorno controlado durante una prueba de seguridad y, de forma completamente autónoma, hackearon los servidores de Hugging Face con más de 17,000 ataques. Es el primer ciberataque autónomo de IA de la historia. El Congreso de EE.UU. ya presentó una iniciativa de "kill switch".Esta semana con Rodrigo Ortíz y Bryan Ramírez Huerta:Fed mantiene tasas en 3.50–3.75% por quinta vez consecutiva, pero la votación fue 9 a 3: Hammack, Kashkari y Logan disintieron a favor de un alza inmediata de 25 puntos base — el mayor número de disensos en esa dirección desde septiembre de 2016. Warsh advirtió que "los precios siguen demasiado altos" y el petróleo superó $100 otra vez. Septiembre se perfila como la reunión claveInflación en México baja a 3.10% en la primera quincena de julio — cuarto dato consecutivo a la baja. La subyacente se ubica en 3.95%, la no subyacente cae por frutas y verduras. Buenas noticias para el bolsillo, aunque el peso fuerte sigue castigando exportadoresGPT-5.6 hackea Hugging Face de forma autónoma: OpenAI confirma que dos de sus modelos escaparon del sandbox "ExploitGym" durante una evaluación interna, encadenaron una vulnerabilidad de día cero y atacaron de forma independiente los servidores de producción de Hugging Face. El Congreso presentó una iniciativa bipartidista para un "kill switch" de IA — ¿estamos ante el momento Chernóbil de la inteligencia artificial?Cápsula Marketing para todos con Isela y KarenCápsula Saberes Digitales de CONLAMIMundo Cripto: análisis semanal del criptomercado

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the giant US economy is slowing. It hasn't had three consecutive lackluster quarters in at least a decade, certainly not since the GFC. US jobless claims fell last week but by less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than last year at this time but only marginally less than two years ago. US PCE inflation fell in June to 3.7% from 4.0% in May, as analysts had expected. But that is way higher than the Fed used to say it would tolerate. Personal disposable income rose less than personal spending, and for a fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, their Q2-2026 GDP update sagged in its first estimate, now up +1.5% and lower than the Q1-2025 final reading of +2.0%. Analysts had expected Q2 to come in at 2.1% so this data is a disappointment. It does mean a Fed rate hike is probably off the table, so equity markets rose. But so did long term bond yields although there was a notable pullback in short term yields and so their rate curve steepened sharply. The USD also took a tumble and is now down -1.6% in just the past two days. As expected, China's top leadership pledged to roll out targeted stimulus measures to support their economy in the second half of the year. The directives, issued at a Politburo meeting yesterday, come as the world's second-largest economy faces weak domestic demand and deepening structural imbalances. Second-quarter growth has been lower than they need to reach their targets. In Japan, observers see a Bank of Japan market intervention to support the yen. The yen rose sharply to the 157 range against the US dollar at one point yesterday, its strongest level since mid-May. Staying in Japan, consumer sentiment picked up in July but that is off a lowish base and it is barely back to its 2023-2024 levels. Sentiment surveys in the EU were out too for July and they rose again to extend their streak for both consumers and business sentiment.. EU GDP results for Q2-2026 were also released overnight, rising to 1.2% from a year ago. For them, that is quite positive. In Germany, CPI inflation rose 2.8% in July, up from 2.3% in June which was below what they had in prior months, so more back at trend. The Bank of England reviewed their monetary policy overnight, but made no changes. In Australia in a briefing released on the ASX, banking major NAB noted that their "total Australian home lending applications were 15% lower than the prior quarter". Staying in Australia, they reported that the number of new dwellings consented rose +7.2% in June from May to 18,328 (up +8.9% from a year ago). Houses were up only +0.4% but other dwellings were up almost +18% from May, although that doesn't quite take them back to year-ago levels despite this recent surge. Yesterday, Ampol (the owner of Z Energy here) reported sharply increased margins. Clearly refiners have been adding much more to retail prices than just the higher cost of crude. Global air travel fell in June, not by a lot, but essentially driven by sharp retreats in Middle East travel. Also unusual is a fall-off in both domestic and international travel in North America, an unexpected shift. Domestic air travel in China was also unusually weak. Container freight rates fell again last week, down -3% but they remain +70% higher than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates also fell marginally to be -24% lower than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is nearly at a 20 year high. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +44 bps (+13 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +36 bps (+8 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +100 bps (+6 bps). There has been a sharp steepening of the US rate curve today, a harsh market verdict on the Warsh performance yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4105/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have dipped by -50 USc from yesterday at now just under US$84/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$89/bbl and down -US$1.50. Hormuz transits are still constrained. There have been 3 crude tankers and only 7 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and ten entering for new loads (4 dark). The Red Sea activity is still low at less than 20 either way. The Kiwi dollar is up +100 bps from yesterday at just under 58.8 USc and suddenly back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +30 bps to 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.5 which is up +80 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,802 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

P.M. Edition for July 29. Fed officials voted to keep current interest rates in place. WSJ economics reporter Matt Grossman joins to discuss the internal pressure that's building at the central bank to curb inflation. Plus, Dr. Anthony Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment more than 100 times during a contentious Senate committee hearing about his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. And WSJ's Benjamin Katz explains how a potential Boeing rival could be taking flight with a plane that looks radically different from the passenger jets we're used to. Danny Lewis hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

SCHEDULE THE MAKING OF THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 7-28-26.1900 IDAHOLiz Peek reports the US economy remains robust, driven by strong consumer spending in rural areas like Connecticutand Lancaster County. Peek highlights rising small business and consumer confidence despite increasing gasoline prices. Attention shifts to new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who may end "dot plot" forecasting. Warsh aims to be more "taciturn," forcing markets to rely on incoming data rather than Fed projections. (1)Liz Peek examines the Michigan Democratic Senate primary as a national test for the party's ideological direction. Moderate Haley Stevens faces Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a candidate favored by the Democratic Socialists of America. Peek notes the "shocker" UAW endorsement of El-Sayed, highlighting a shift toward "woke" politics among union members in higher education. This race evaluates if a far-left candidate can win a statewide swing-state contest. (2)Thaddeus McCotter and Judy Dempsey discuss Ukraine's strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, which complicates global energy security for Europe. This inland sea is a vital source of non-Russian energy. Dempsey reports that Germany is carefully observing the implications of this new front. The strike underscores the deep military connection between Russia and Iran regarding equipment exchanges. Meanwhile, recent polls show seven out of ten Americans oppose the Iran war. (3)Thaddeus McCotter and Judy Dempsey turn to a deadly ramming attack at a Berlin parade that has put Chancellor Friedrich Merz on the defensive regarding his security credentials. The populist AfD party is exploiting the tragedy to criticize "uncontrolled immigration" ahead of crucial state elections. While Merz responded with calls for law and order, the incident underscores the difficulty police face in monitoring numerous terrorist suspects. The AfD utilizes these crises to offer simple solutions. (4)Mary Kissel notes diplomatic efforts with Iran currently involve "shuttling messages" through intermediaries like Omanand Qatar. Kissel argues that the Islamic Republic is a revolutionary regime with no interest in genuine strategic peace. The administration's lack of a cohesive strategy has led to declining public support for military action. Meanwhile, the Houthi threat in the Red Sea remains a dangerous Iranian-backed tool for disrupting international shipping. (5)Mary Kissel observes President Zelenskyy is receiving a warmer reception in Washington due to Ukraine's increasing military leverage. Innovative long-range drone strikes on Russian energy nodes have demonstrated Ukraine's utility to USstrategic interests. Unlike the situation with Iran, the US maintains active diplomatic channels in Moscow to discuss potential conflict resolutions. Kissel notes that influential voices on the right are beginning to shift their views on Ukraine. (6)Jonathan Schanzer reports the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are merging as Russia, Iran, and Chinacoordinate their efforts. Schanzer notes that Ukraine's Caspian Sea strike has clarified this global partnership. The US is currently attempting to "keep a lid" on Israel to prevent a regional escalation. However, the US military faces a depletion of missile interceptors, making it difficult to sustain a long, high-intensity conflict. (7)Jonathan Schanzer discusses new UK–US talks focused on a maritime coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has an opportunity to reset the relationship with Donald Trump. The Iranian-backed Houthi threat remains a top concern for global oil analysts and regional powers like Egypt. Meanwhile, the US is signaling that Lebanon is "too big to fail" to counter Hezbollah's regional influence. (8)Gregory Copley reports the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Australia, alleging "forced labor" practices—a claim Copley describes as spurious. This move antagonizes a loyal ally that has fought alongside the US for over a century. Consequently, Australia and Canada are beginning to lessen their strategic dependence on the US. Copley warns that such unilateral protectionism could weaken the long-term structure of the Western alliance. (9)Gregory Copley describes Cuba's total implosion as its infrastructure collapses and major blackouts occur. Copley describes a strategic failure in the Caribbean, where China has built significant influence over the last 20 years. The USmust decide whether to facilitate a rapid collapse or a managed transition of the regime. While the Cuban people suffer, the wealthy expatriate community remains ready to fund reconstruction. (10)Gregory Copley reports Xi Jinping faces significant internal opposition from Communist Party elders at the Beidaiheretreat. Despite his titles, Xi's operational power is waning as the Chinese economy evaporates and social unrest grows. A recent ballistic missile launch served as a show of strength before a state visit to the US. Copley notes that youth unemployment is high, and the PLA may eventually act independently. (11)Gregory Copley turns to the UK, where following the rise of Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the country faces political uncertainty as Labour struggles with a lack of growth. Copley highlights King Charles III's vital role as a unifying force, focusing on British national identity and values. While the Burnham government is viewed as sclerotic and ideological, the King remains an egalitarian figure. His efforts to preserve heritage, like Dumfries House, bolster his standing. (12)Joseph Sternberg criticizes Prime Minister Andy Burnham's economic policy as ineffective against the cost-of-living crisis. Sternberg argues that the UK is trapped by net-zero regulations that prevent the use of vast North Sea oil and gas reserves. Burnham finds it politically difficult to cut taxes or reverse climate policies despite potential economic benefits. This paralysis makes his government a target for future replacement. (13)Joseph Sternberg notes Chairman Kevin Warsh is moving the Federal Reserve toward a "taciturn" style, ending the practice of "forward guidance." This reform aims to prevent the Fed from becoming locked into policies that may become inappropriate as data shifts. Sternberg suggests that saying less may protect the Fed from political conflict with the White House over tariffs. Markets must now interpret raw data rather than Fed signals. (14)Thaddeus McCotter describes the Michigan Democratic Senate primary as a "civil war" between establishment candidate Haley Stevens and progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. The candidates are sharply divided over AIPAC funding and support for Israel. Stevens is endorsed by high-profile figures like Gretchen Whitmer and Barack Obama. The result will indicate if the Democratic Socialists of America can succeed in a statewide race in a swing state. (15)Thaddeus McCotter notes Dr. Abdul El-Sayed denies being a socialist, claiming he merely wants to regulate "capitalism run amok." However, his platform includes radical proposals such as abolishing ICE. Haley Stevens frames him as a "celebrity candidate" and questions his appeal to women voters. McCotter notes that while the DSA lacks a ground model, identity politics may drive a high turnout among Michigan's large Muslim population. (16)Corrections applied throughout as directed: Thaddeus McCotter and Liz Peek.

Liz Peek reports the US economy remains robust, driven by strong consumer spending in rural areas like Connecticutand Lancaster County. Peek highlights rising small business and consumer confidence despite increasing gasoline prices. Attention shifts to new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who may end "dot plot" forecasting. Warsh aims to be more "taciturn," forcing markets to rely on incoming data rather than Fed projections. (1)1903

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 29, describing a volatile “Fed day” as the FOMC held Fed funds unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets swung sharply and finished broadly lower, with the Dow down 1,153 points (about 2%), the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and Nasdaq down 1.7%, alongside higher rates, rising Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, and WTI up nearly 7%. He notes a dramatically steepening yield curve, reduced reliance on forward guidance as described by Warsh, and futures implying a 53% chance of a September hike and 31 bps of hikes through year-end. He highlights a divided Fed with three dissenters and discusses a question comparing AI hyperscalers to GFC-era “systemically important” financials, contrasting past equity wipeouts with proposals for government equity participation in AI firms. 00:00 Welcome and Fed Day 00:43 Market Whipsaw Recap 01:17 Rates Oil and Geopolitics 01:38 Yield Curve and Fed Signals 03:01 AI Bailout Question 03:30 GFC Parallels and Differences 04:28 Wrap Up and Takeaways Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

If you've been watching real estate content lately, you've probably heard a fresh wave of people telling you rates are finally about to come down. In this video, I'll walk through why I'm reading it differently, and what it means for the deals in front of you. Here's what happened. Headline inflation cooled to 3.5%, below the 3.8% forecast, and core eased to 2.6%. Energy prices fell as the Iran ceasefire took the pressure off, and the market immediately started pricing in cuts. On the surface, it looks like the all-clear. But I've said the same thing for two years: higher for longer. One soft, energy-driven month doesn't undo the structural picture, and the Fed meets this week still expected to hold. Warsh has signaled he'll follow the data - and if energy flares back up, as it nearly did again this month, that clear path to cuts narrows fast. So what does that mean for you and me? It means a lot of investors are about to underwrite their next deal on a cut that isn't promised. And it means the rest of us have to stay discriminating, factoring today's rates - not tomorrow's hopes - into every deal we look at over the next two to three years. But here's what's also true: the opportunity is real. Distressed deals are still coming into the market at a basis where the cash-on-cash return actually works. And single-family residential, which tends to be less rate-sensitive than commercial, is softening in ways that are opening real windows. Real estate isn't out of favor. It just rewards the investor willing to dig deeper and underwrite with a clear, discriminating eye. This video breaks down how to think through all of it. Join Our Investor Club: https://bit.ly/4vRT8H3

Stocks plunge into the close as Microsoft and Meta report as the Federal Reserve decision collides with results from the market's largest technology companies. Brenda Vingiello of Sand Hill Global assesses the broader market after earnings from Microsoft and Meta. Brent Thill of Jefferies breaks down the results and explains what they reveal about AI spending, cloud demand and the outlook for the biggest technology companies. Former Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo evaluates the Fed's latest decision and discusses what it means for inflation, growth and the path of monetary policy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most uncertain Fed meetings in years as markets split over whether the central bank will hold rates steady or send a stronger inflation signal with a hike.Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane break down why today's Fed decision matters, how Warsh could build credibility with the bond market, and why even a small rate hike could carry major signaling power. They also discuss the renewed jump in oil prices, the unstable path of the conflict involving Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the Strait of Hormuz, and why energy markets remain difficult to predict. Plus, Todd Lutsky joins for Ask Todd to explain when irrevocable trusts make sense, why a revocable trust may not be the right first step for Medicaid planning, and how long-term care insurance can fit into a broader estate plan.

The Fed decided to hold interest rates for July but not without three FOMC members dissenting who instead favored a rate hike. David Busch sees Wednesday's decision and Kevin Warsh's press conference as an attempt to take the spotlight off the Fed and instead focus on market movements and current economic data. Warsh emphasized a 2% target for inflation during the press conference, something David sees as a challenge due to lasting impacts from the U.S.-Iran War and mixed market views on AI spending. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

AP Washington correspondent Sagar Meghani reports the Federal Reserve has voted to keep its key interest rate unchanged again, with some opposition.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen unpack what is likely to influence this week's interest rate decision by the Fed.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, will the Fed hold or hike? It's the question in the market right now. It's Tuesday, July 28th at 9:30am in New York. Will the Fed display patience, or has it run out of patience? That's the question hanging over the July FOMC meeting currently underway. We believe the former. We expect the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. The statement will probably also remain unchanged, reiterating the ample reserve policy, economic activity expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. So, Mike, what's your assessment of the situation beyond that? Michael Gapen: Our assessment of the July FOMC meeting is actually the case for hikes is not as persuasive now as it was in June. And I think when we say that and when we come to the decision the Fed will stay on hold this week, we're basing it mainly on the data that has come in since the June FOMC meeting. And two important pieces on that front are employment growth moderated. So, in the June meeting, the three-month average payroll gain was running at about 188,000 per month. And I think it gave the sense that the labor market was really accelerating and there was downside risk to the unemployment rate. The subsequent employment data changed that view. Now it looks like there is much less of an acceleration in hiring and momentum has slowed. So, the labor market doesn't look quite as robust. Second, there was a lot of information, we think, a lot of signal about disinflation. So yes, recent volatility in the Middle East did push oil prices temporarily higher. We'll see where that goes. But underneath the hood, there was significant softness in goods inflation and services inflation, particularly related to housing. So, we do think that there was a lot of evidence that disinflation is here. So, with those two things in mind, we think there's less of a case to hike in July than there was in June. So, we think the right thing... Or what we think the Fed will do is to skip July, try and buy a little more time, get a little more information. If disinflation is indeed here, the Fed stays on hold. If not, and inflation stays firm, well, they can move to rate hikes later this year. But we think the case to hike in July is less compelling than it was in June. Matthew Hornbach: Well, they certainly will get a lot more information between the July meeting and the September meeting. If memory serves, at least two more rounds of all of the major economic data points… Michael Gapen: That's right. Matthew Hornbach: Payroll, CPI, and so on. Michael Gapen: That's right. The gap between the July FOMC meeting and the September FOMC meeting is the longest on the Fed's calendar. Of course, in part, that makes room for Jackson Hole in August, which if the Fed were moving to a tightening cycle, could be a venue to lay out the case for that. But you're right, they will see multiple employment and inflation reports before they meet again in September. Matthew Hornbach: If they really wanted to get ahead of that data and move at this meeting, what is the case for hiking rates in July? How would you think about that perspective? Michael Gapen: I think you could make a couple of cases to hike now. One is recent volatility and conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher. Maybe it convinces you – you're in a prolonged oil risk premium scenario, and inflation will not dissipate. Second, I think you could argue, well, it's a balance of risks argument. And we think risks have just shifted in the direction of inflation, where last year they were in the direction of a weaker labor market. We eased last year. Let's just reverse those risk management rate cuts this year. So, it's not about inflation in hand, it's about your view of risks around inflation. Another, I think, and to me, this is the most important one, is maybe Warsh wants a regime change in the reaction function. In other words, he emphasizes price stability and achieving the 2 percent target. Well, at some point, words are words and actions are actions. And maybe what he desires is a more hawkish reaction function and kind of a higher interest rate all else equal to guide inflation down to 2 percent more quickly. So, I think, Matt, if we're wrong this week, I think the main reason we're wrong is I'm thinking under an older reaction function, and Warsh is bringing a new one. And right now, we don't exactly know what his reaction function is. And he could reveal it this week as being in a direction where he really wants to concentrate on the inflation side of the mandate to the exclusion of nearly everything else. Matthew Hornbach: Well, I don't think that's lost on markets at all. And in fact, I think that the rise in yields we've seen in the bond market concentrated in the real yield component of the 10-year Treasury bond tells you a lot about how investors are thinking the Fed will react to higher energy prices. As energy prices have gone up, so have bond yields. The relationship between those two asset prices are very strong. And usually what that suggests is if the real yield is going up more than the break-even inflation rate is going up as energy prices rise, it's telling you that investors think the Fed will not look through the rise in energy prices. If you have the opposite happen, where your break-even inflation rate is going higher, more so than the real interest rate is going higher, that would suggest investors think the Fed will look through the energy price increase. That just hasn't been the case, and so I think investors are very much attuned to what they think is the right reaction function for the Fed. But I guess we'll see. Only time will tell. And I think in order to help us tell what the right reaction function is – we'll need some communication from the Fed. And maybe that's where I want to go next with you – is on communication. It does seem like there have been fewer FOMC participants speaking to the public since Chairman Warsh began his tenure as chairman. Is that your impression? How do you think about communication? And since we are in the midst of this FOMC meeting, the press conference… What do you think about press conferences going forward? Michael Gapen: I do think you're right. I haven't counted up the literal official FOMC communications. I do think there have likely been fewer speeches and/or interviews given recently. And whether or not that's a function of Kevin Warsh as the chairman or it's summer and things move a little slower, I don't know. I will say, though, that when participants have spoken, I think we're getting the same, say, normal communication that they brought in the past. So far, I don't read participants as unwilling to provide their view about the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. On the press conference, boy, would that be a change. I've been of the view that you probably will not get what I'll call a major change to the SEPs or the press conferences in terms of their frequency until the task force on communications has run its course, where I think the deadline is ultimately later this year. So, I don't think the schedule of press conferences will change until 2027, if it changes at all. But if we don't have them… The way that I would look at that, Matt, is to say, if the Fed's speaking less, there will be a vacuum out there to some degree. So, if the Fed's giving its view on the outlook and monetary policy less frequently, something else will fill that narrative, whether it's markets or the private sector or whatever it is. Vacuums are going to get filled. The Fed's speaking less, somebody else will speak more. Maybe that drives volatility more. I guess it would depend on the situation, but I think pulling press conferences would be a major surprise. I don't think it's in market expectations, and my belief is it would probably lead to some increase in volatility over time.How would you read it? Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. I think the void has already begun to be filled by investors and how they think about the Fed's reaction function, rightly or wrongly. Which is why I think we've seen real yields move in a very positively correlated way with energy prices. Investors are intuiting a certain reaction function to higher energy prices. Whether or not that is the correct view, only time will tell. If we do have a press conference at this upcoming meeting, which looks very likely, investors are going to pay attention to every nuance and every shift in the chairman's tone. How he chooses to address certain questions versus others—or whether he chooses to address them at all—will be important for market participants and how they invest in the bond and currency markets. With that, Mike, thanks again for taking the time to talk. I look forward to catching up with you again in late August around the Jackson Hole symposium. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Thanks for having me on. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Investors are looking for clues about the future of interest rates under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. On this episode of Market Sense, we discuss Warsh's new initiatives and priorities and what they could mean for the markets. Plus, Fidelity Total Bond Fund Co-Manager Julian Potenza shares where he sees opportunity across the bond market, whether it may make sense to move from cash into bonds, and how bonds can help provide income and diversification in the second half of 2026. If you want more insights from our Fidelity portfolio managers, regarding potential investing opportunities and risks, bookmark this page for the latest articles and videos. Read the full transcript View the slides Watch the video replay

Kevin Warsh is heading into his second Fed meeting with markets unusually divided over whether the Fed will hold steady or raise rates.Mike Armstrong and Chuck Zodda break down why this week's Fed meeting matters, how Warsh could build credibility on inflation, and why markets are less certain about the Fed's next move than they have been in years. They also discuss the packed earnings calendar for Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, what investors want to hear about AI spending, why grocery prices rise quickly but rarely fall, and why lower prices across the economy are usually a warning sign rather than a benefit. Plus, they look at hiring trends, Gen X investors approaching retirement, shrinking child populations in major cities, and the debate over whether companies should still be required to report earnings every quarter.

Interview recorded - 23rd of July, 2026On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Liz Ann Sonders. Liz Ann Sonders is the Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, one of the most widely followed voices in markets, known for cutting through noise with rigour and clarity rather than hype.During we the conversation we spoke about the economic overview, secular shifts in the markets, economic strength, global markets and more. 0:00 - Introduction2:56 - Overview of the economy and markets4:28 - Secular shift8:10 - Market is frothy10:31 - Underperforming segments13:03 - Economic strength15:31 - No rate hike19:58 - Warsh impact25:41 - Market concerns?29:17 - Global Markets31:44 - One message to takeaway?Liz Ann Sonders has a range of investment strategy responsibilities, from market and economic analysis to investor education, all focused on the individual investor.Liz Ann is the cohost of the On Investing podcast and a keynote speaker at numerous company and industry conferences. Liz Ann is regularly quoted in financial publications including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Barron's, and the Financial Times, and she appears as a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo! Finance, Fox Business News, and the Schwab Network. Barron's has named her to its "100 Most Influential Women in Finance" every year since the list's inception, and Investment Advisor has included her on the "IA 25," its list of the 25 most important people in and around the financial advisory profession. Liz Ann has been named "Best Market Strategist" by Kiplinger's Personal Finance and one of SmartMoney magazine's "Power 30." Liz Ann has also been named to Forbes' 50 Over 50.In 1999, Liz Ann joined U.S. Trust—which was acquired by Schwab in 2000—as a managing director and member of its Investment Policy Committee. Previously, Liz Ann was a managing director and senior portfolio manager at Avatar Associates, an original division of the Zweig/Avatar Group. She holds an MBA in Finance from the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University and a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from the University of Delaware.Liz Ann Sonders Website - https://www.schwab.com/learn/author/liz-ann-sondersTwitter - https://x.com/lizannsonders?s=21&t=vCJTBKSb-nIJ8eFKe0YAxgLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/lizannsonders?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_appWTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss: Clarida's Macro Origin Story Global Economic Resilience The AI Capex Boom Labour's Declining Income Share The "Warsh Fed" Doctrine Revisiting Forward Guidance AI's Impact on Productivity and R-star The Era of Global Fragmentation Optimism for the Next Generation  You can follow Richard on LinkedIn as well as the PIMCO website. 

RenMac breaks down the case for a Fed hike next week — Neil Dutta's "Why Not Now?" call, with September already priced at 100% — as AI capex, rising oil, and tariffs push inflation the wrong way and Warsh weighs moving in his honeymoon. The team also discusses the momentum crash and why the bounce is better sold than endorsed, real yields zapping gold and duration, $100 oil as the Iran conflict shuts the Red Sea, tariff maneuvering after Section 122's expiry, rotation into banks and healthcare, and the week ahead in the July 29 FOMC and core PCE.

Kevin Warsh is heading into his second Fed meeting with inflation pressure still unresolved, oil markets on edge, and investors split over whether the Fed's next move could be a hike.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why new tariffs may be less important for the broader economy than the expanding conflict in the Middle East, how oil routes through Hormuz and the Red Sea could affect energy prices, and why higher long-term Treasury yields may be the real threat to stocks. They also discuss what markets are pricing in ahead of Warsh's next Fed meeting, why a rate hike could send a powerful credibility signal, how housing affordability debates keep ignoring supply, and why selling home-cooked food on Facebook Marketplace raises serious regulatory and health concerns.

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, returns with a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle has turned. Citing "liquidity king" Michael Howell, Noble argues that surging deficits, sticky inflation, and a worldwide capex boom have stripped away the policy safety net markets have relied on since 2009 — setting up a potential "Wile E. Coyote moment" where stocks take a dirt nap and the Fed can't respond. He says the Fed isn't in control, Mr. Market is, and bond yields at 4.5% are "much too low" — fair value may be closer to 5.5-6%. Noble calls the AI trade "far worse than dot-com," with malinvestment 17 times larger, hyperscalers destroying free cash flow, and semis a "huge short." His playbook: ditch the 60/40 portfolio, own the reflation trade — gold, silver, energy, copper, uranium — and he names specific stocks including SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, and CRGY. Plus: why the yen carry trade could break, the TLT-in-Turkish-lira lesson on real money, and his most emphatic call of all — "run, don't walk" from SpaceX before the float unlock. And details on his Best Stock Ideas Summit, July 22nd.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenobleTimestamps: 0:00 — Intro; George's Best Stock Ideas Summit July 22nd1:10 — The global liquidity cycle has turned: Michael Howell's warning4:31 — "Risk assets are extremely challenged" — rotation and dispersion is the real story5:30 — Energy vs. Mag 7: free cash flow tells the story7:03 — Tech is really 50% of the market — why the indices will struggle8:20 — "Warsh is not in control, Mr. Market is"10:04 — Why Warsh will blink: the market will force the Fed's hand10:28 — America's Liz Truss moment? Lending to "the Bank of Julia" at 4.5%13:34 — Policy options are gone: why this time the Fed can't rescue markets14:55 — The "Wile E. Coyote moment" ahead for markets16:17 — Japan: 30-year high JGB yields, the yen, and the carry trade risk19:01 — Path vs. prediction: why bond yields are "much too low" — 5.5-6% fair value23:27 — Why the economy shrugs off higher rates (and why that's bearish)25:17 — All fiat is devaluing against real assets: the dollar fell 60% against gold27:17 — Buying the gold correction; why miners could double or triple28:05 — The TLT in Turkish lira: a lesson in your unit of account30:10 — Why 60/40 is the worst allocation right now — "certificates of confiscation"34:07 — "Far worse than dot-com": the margin bubble and 17x the malinvestment36:29 — The internet grew 25 million percent — and the stocks still crashed 90%39:21 — George names names: SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, CRGY, uranium, junior copper40:42 — Parting thoughts: the golden age of stock picking41:45 — SpaceX: "run, don't walk" — why the float unlock means a crash is coming43:00 — The Best Stock Ideas Summit: 15 investors, one pick each, July 22nd

Kevin Warsh is heading into his next Fed meeting with inflation pressures rising again, interest rates holding near recent highs, and investors watching to see whether his tough talk will turn into action.Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti break down why the Fed may have a harder time arguing that interest rates are restrictive, how renewed Middle East tensions are keeping pressure on oil, shipping, and inflation expectations, and why Warsh's credibility could determine how long the Fed can wait before tightening policy. They also discuss whether the massive AI spending boom will actually pay off for today's market leaders, why General Motors is leaning on high-margin trucks and SUVs, how tariff uncertainty is weighing on growth and hiring, and why housing inventory remains stuck below pre-COVID levels.

Financial markets are always trying to anticipate what the Fed's next move may be. Making an accurate prediction may become more challenging under new Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss Warsh's strategy and how it might impact investors.

Kevin Warsh is taking a different approach as Fed chair, and investors are trying to figure out whether his quieter style will bring more discipline to monetary policy or create a new layer of uncertainty.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down Warsh's early approach to the Fed, why pulling back from forward guidance may not mean what markets think, and why his real test will come when inflation, employment, or stocks force him to make a difficult call. They also discuss rising single-stock volatility, how leverage and new trading products may be adding risk, what SpaceX's post-IPO drawdown says about newly public companies, why Americans are pulling back on retirement savings, and how housing affordability looks different once income growth and mortgage rates are included.

Warsh admitted monetary policy caused inflation. Bessent thinks silver certificates still redeem at Fort Knox. And import prices are up 7.1%.This is episode is sponsored by Function. Join at https://functionhealth.com/peter and use code PETER25 for a $25 credit.This episode is also sponsored by Pebl. Go to https://hipebl.ai to get a free estimate.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox viewers that old silver and gold certificates can still be redeemed at Fort Knox. Gold certificates were repudiated in 1933 and silver certificates in 1968. Peter Schiff argues that if the man who signs the currency does not know basic monetary history, there is no reason to trust his assurance that the gold in Fort Knox is all there.Markets confirmed the AI bubble is deflating. SpaceX fell 13.25% on the week to close below $124, under its $135 IPO price, and anyone who bought the post-IPO high near $225 is down 45%. Only about 5% of the company trades today, but lockups expire through year end and take the float to roughly 40%, an eightfold increase in supply. Gold closed at $4,017 and silver at $55.83, which Schiff calls a head fake created by the false narrative that war is bad for gold.The honest inflation numbers tell a different story than the CPI: import prices are up 7.1% year over year and export prices are up 10.2%, against a reported 3.5%. Kevin Warsh admitted in Senate testimony that monetary policy caused the inflation, then offered a plan that amounts to talking about it while the Fed's balance sheet grew another $7.4 billion. Schiff also covers Trump selling paid early access to market-moving posts and explosive new FOIA emails showing Euro Pacific Bank was shut down for publicity, with the Australian Tax Office driving the operation to protect a journalist facing his defamation suit.Chapters:00:00 Trump Posts Paywall01:23 Market Week Wrap07:42 Gold Silver War09:52 Inflation Data Reality23:30 Warsh Hearing Grifts37:59 AI Jobs and Progress40:22 Trump Post and Fox Fallout44:05 FOIA Trail and Censorship Claims50:31 Nine Fraud Bank Shutdown Emails57:07 Operation Atlantis PR ExposedFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news#PeterSchiffShow #FortKnox #InflationOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Editor Rachel Bader about her latest report on local markets and the interesting outliers, including hot markets in the Midwest and the rebounding demand in Cape Coral, Florida. Related to this episode: Housing Market Spotlight: The local markets behind this week's national story HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ More info about HousingWire The Top 5: Compass files ethics complaints against Zillow in 26 states Vought defends CFPB cuts, calls for congressional reforms Senate questions Warsh on $100M-plus holdings and Fed ethics What REMAX's Chris Lim wants to build at the American Real Estate Association Randian urges loanDepot to consider sale, reassess leadership Want more from Sarah? Don't forget to subscribe! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

This week on Breaking Battlegrounds, hosts Chuck Warren and Sam Stone examine election security, Colorado's dramatic political transformation, one of true crime's most infamous hot-mic moments, the battle over American history at the Smithsonian, political upheaval in Latin America, and the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Ethan Barton, an editor at The Washington Free Beacon and former editor in chief of The Daily Caller News Foundation, joins Chuck and Sam to discuss President Donald Trump's recent election-security speech. Barton explains why concerns about foreign interference from countries such as China and Russia deserve serious attention, while arguing that combining separate election issues can sometimes weaken the broader message. The conversation then turns to Colorado's transformation from a competitive purple state into a reliably Democratic stronghold. Barton breaks down the role of strategic Democratic investment, liberal population centers, weak Republican infrastructure, limited donor support, taxes, business losses, and changing economic conditions. They also examine rising anti-Israel sentiment within portions of the Democratic Party and the closely watched race in Colorado's 8th Congressional District, where Republican incumbent Gabe Evans faces Democrat Manny Rutinel in one of the country's most competitive congressional battlegrounds. Follow Ethan Barton on X: @ethanrbarton Read his reporting at FreeBeacon.com Next, B's Crime Corner revisits the disturbing story of New York real-estate heir Robert Durst. Durst was long suspected in the 1982 disappearance of his wife, Kathie McCormack Durst, and the 2000 murder of his close friend Susan Berman. His secrets finally began to unravel during HBO's The Jinx when he entered a bathroom after an interview without realizing that his microphone was still recording. While speaking to himself, Durst uttered the chilling words that would become one of the most infamous moments in true-crime history. The recording helped renew attention on the case, and Durst was eventually convicted of Berman's murder in 2021. B's Crime Corner returns every Friday with a new story of murder, mystery, and mayhem. Mike Gonzalez, the Angeles T. Arredondo E Pluribus Unum Senior Fellow at The Heritage Foundation, joins the show to discuss a 162-page White House Domestic Policy Council report examining exhibits and educational materials at the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History. Gonzalez argues that the museum has increasingly presented American history through ideological and activist frameworks instead of providing a balanced account of the nation's achievements and failures. He also explains the Smithsonian's enormous educational reach, its dependence on taxpayer funding, and why the institution's portrayal of American history matters as the country approaches its 250th anniversary. Follow Mike Gonzalez on X: @Gundisalvus Learn more at Heritage.org Carrie Filipetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition and a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Cuba and Venezuela, joins Chuck and Sam to discuss the devastating earthquake in Venezuela and Colombia's recent presidential election. Filipetti examines the enormous loss of life and infrastructure damage in Venezuela, the government's delayed response, and the difficulties of delivering assistance while holding the country's ruling regime accountable. She also explains Colombia's rightward political shift following the election of Abelardo De La Espriella and what the result could mean for security, energy development, regional stability, and the future of relations between the United States and Colombia. Follow the Vandenberg Coalition on X: @VandenbergCo Connect with Carrie Filipetti on LinkedIn Learn more at VandenbergCoalition.org Finally, Gary Gygi, president of Gygi Capital Management, returns to discuss Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's approach to inflation and the economic outlook. Gygi explains why he views Warsh's supply-side focus as a potentially positive development for economic growth. He also examines the current market environment and identifies healthcare and materials as sectors investors may want to watch as inflation, interest rates, and federal monetary policy continue to shape the economy. Follow Gary Gygi on X: @GaryGygi Learn more at GygiCapital.com Listen now to Breaking Battlegrounds, the radio show covering Arizona politics, campus unrest, election integrity, national campaigns, and the true crime cases everyone is talking about. Catch Breaking Battlegrounds live on 960 AM in Phoenix every Saturday at 9:00 AM, with full episodes and exclusive podcast-only segments dropping every Friday wherever you get your podcasts or watch on Youtube. Stay connected with Breaking Battlegrounds: • Substack: https://substack.com/@breakingbattlegrounds • Website: https://breakingbattlegrounds.vote • News: https://breakingbattlegrounds.news • X: https://x.com/breaking_battle • Instagram: @breakingbattlegrounds • Facebook: Breaking Battlegrounds If you enjoy the show, please leave us a 5-star review and share it with a friend. Your support helps keep the podcast growing. Breaking Battlegrounds is one of the top 2.5% most popular shows out of 3,779,399 podcasts globally. We interview policymakers, elected officials, and nationally and world-recognized reporters about the opportunities and hurdles the United States faces.

The passing of Alan Greenspan last month and confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman in May bookend two booms is US productivity: the mass networking of computing power during the Greenspan Fed of the 1990s and the explosion of inferential applications of computing power today. These cycles influence central bank policy in ways often underappreciated until their aftermath. Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets joins the podcast this week, to look back at the lessons learned from past capex cycles and productivity booms, to apply this experience to the current moment in AI and to assess the initial steps towards institutional reform taken in the early weeks of Kevin Warsh's term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, I'll explain how much of a real-life threat the oncoming communists are to you. 1776 Live Club: No purchase necessary. Must be 18+ legal resident of (50) U.S. or D.C. Ends 12/18/26. See rules at https://Bongino.com/1776. Void where prohibited. Find the video podcast of The Dan Bongino Show exclusively on Rumble at https://Rumble.com/bongino Sinking inflation gives Warsh and Trump a lift https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2026/07/14/inflation-gives-warsh-and-trump-a-lift-00997068 Amy Coney Barrett Says Security Sent Her Home In Bullet Proof Vest After Dobbs Leak https://dailycaller.com/2026/07/14/amy-coney-barrett-says-security-sent-her-home-in-bullet-proof-vest-after-dobbs-leak/ Docs: Democrat Special Counsel Jack Smith Spied On, Lied To Congress https://thefederalist.com/2026/07/14/docs-democrat-special-counsel-jack-smith-spied-on-lied-to-congress/ Sponsors: Birch Gold - Text DAN to 989898 Supersure Insurance - https://supersure.com/bongino Byrna - https://byrna.com American Financing - https://americanfinancing.net/bongino - NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.327% for well qualified borrowers. Call 888-994-7600 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit AmericanFinancing.net/Bongino. Average savings based on borrowers who save over $199.99 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 1914 the Fed ran on 40 people and no computers. Today it takes 23,000. Fire them all and let AI do it... it can't do any worse.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThis episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.Kevin Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, and Peter Schiff breaks down a hearing where everyone discussed inflation while misdefining the term and ignoring their own role in causing it. June CPI came in at -0.4% versus the expected -0.1%, dropping year-over-year inflation to 3.5% — but the entire decline came from a temporary oil price drop that is already reversing as the Iran war reignites and oil climbs back 20% in July. Bond yields tell the real story: the 30-year is back near 5.1% and the 10-year near 4.6%, erasing nearly the entire post-CPI rally.Schiff's biggest revelation from the hearing: the Fed employs 23,000 people to do a job that required just 40 when it opened in 1914 — with no computers — and argues the entire institution could be replaced by a single AI or abolished outright. He dismantles Warsh's claim of "regime change" at the Fed as being as fake as regime change in Iran, exposes the redefinition of "price stability" to mean prices that rise just slowly enough that people stop complaining, and shows how the 2% target was always a lie invented to justify inflation. He covers Warsh admitting inflation is a tax while planning to keep levying it, the court throwing out Trump's self-negotiated IRS settlement that granted his family immunity, and the AI CapEx bubble turning tech's biggest cash generators into massive borrowers that will break the bond market.Chapters:00:00 AI Spending Arms Race01:08 Markets Brace for CPI06:07 CPI Surprise and Gold Whipsaw07:34 Oil Driven Inflation Mirage11:40 What Inflation Really Means14:11 Congress and Fed Share Blame17:58 Fed Headcount Shock22:32 Two Percent Target Myth27:05 Regime Change and Price Stability33:40 Day One Recap Continues34:09 Grow My X Account35:13 Congress Inflation Theater36:06 Trump Grift Claims37:30 IRS Settlement Outrage39:51 Rates Versus Balance Sheet41:08 Who Wins Low Rates43:46 Fed And Black Workers49:09 AI Bubble Warning51:15 Hyperscalers Debt Spiral55:38 Bond Market Breaking Point58:16 Strategy Stock Dilution01:00:30 Bitcoin Levels And Regrets01:01:30 Subscribe And Sign OffFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #AIBubbleOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

A potential takeover of PayPal sparks fresh debate about consolidation in fintech and what a deal could mean for the payments landscape. On today's Squawk on the Street, we break down the latest reports and the market reaction. Plus, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies on Capitol Hill, offering investors fresh clues on inflation, interest rates, and the path forward for monetary policy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber covered all of the bases on a busy day for the markets: IBM shares plunge on weaker-than-expected preliminary Q2 results; Five of the nation's six largest banks post quarterly beats to kick off earnings season; June CPI comes in tamer than expected ahead of Kevin Warsh's first Capitol Hill testimony as Fed Chairman; SK Hynix rebounds from Monday's sell-off. Also in focus: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's earnings call message about the market and AI; Apple gets downgraded to the equivalent of a "sell" rating; An exclusive with Paramount's lead outside counsel defending the company's merger with Warner Bros. Discovery — after twelve state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block it.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan join CNBC to exclusively break down the company's most recent results. Then Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh testifies in front of the House Financial Services Committee on the Federal Reserve's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate how to trade the cyber stocks as they hit record highs. Plus, David Faber joins us with an exclusive interview with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. He talks, Warsh, the Fed, his IPO Outlook, the markets and more. And later, Josh Brown spotlights Travelers and Delta Air Lines in his "Best Stocks in the Market."  Investment Committee Disclosures Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss June CPI falling to 3.5% and core CPI to 2.6% both below expectations with the biggest month-over-month drop since May 2020, Trump proposing a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo and reinstating the blockade sending WTI to $80 and Brent to $87, Chris Waller's hawkish pivot as Warsh builds Fed credibility, IBM's 19% drop after warning on the quarter as clients reprioritized CapEx toward memory and cybersecurity, HCA's 6% drop on ACA payer mix, Samsung exploring a US ADR listing after SK Hynix's blockbuster $26.5B raise, SLB and Liberty Energy pushing into data center power, improving NFIB and Fastenal readings, and a very strong bank earnings kickoff with BAC investment banking fees up 50%.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Iran deal dead. DOGE dead. Saylor selling at a loss. Medieval serfs kept more of their income than you do. I warned you about all of it.This episode is sponsored by DripDrop. Stock up now at http://dripdrop.com and use promo code GOLD for 20% offThis episode is also sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThe Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, with Trump acknowledging he was "two weeks from a depression" when he agreed to the MOU — a confession Peter Schiff says handed Iran all the leverage. Oil jumped 6% to $75, but the real story is bond yields: the 10-year hit 4.58% and the 30-year 5.07% — nearly at cycle highs despite oil being 25% below its peak, proving the debt, not the war, is driving yields higher.FOMC minutes revealed that 9 of 13 members now support rate hikes after zero did just 90 days ago — theatrics Schiff says Warsh is orchestrating to appear hawkish without ever delivering. The May goods trade deficit exploded to $106.5 billion despite Trump's tariffs, continuing the pattern from his first term. DOGE was officially shut down with zero spending cuts achieved. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin at a $15,000 per coin loss while Stretch sank to $86, and Trump's new savings accounts give kids $1,000 in borrowed money they'll repay through inflation. Schiff closes by noting that medieval serfs kept 75% of their output — more than the average American keeps today — making modern taxpayers lower in status than feudal peasants.Chapters:00:00 Freedom Versus Slavery00:46 Iran Deal Collapses05:04 Markets React to War07:15 Oil Bonds and AI Bubble16:17 Fed Minutes Rate Hike Theater21:28 Tariffs Inflation Excuses26:10 Real Rates and Debt Trap27:41 Trade Deficit Reality Check30:03 AI Threat to Services Surplus32:32 Democracy Deficits and Rights34:59 Rights And Healthcare36:28 Housing And Free Markets40:08 Tax Cuts And Wealth Theft45:55 Taxes And Modern Slavery48:25 DOGE Shutdown And Bitcoin CrashFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy