Podcasts about Warsh

Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he still believes in a growth cycle for equity markets, even as investors show growing concerns around AI.Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns around AI disruption. It's Tuesday, February 24th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week you could feel it, that anxious undercurrent in the market. The headlines were noisy, volatility ticked higher, and AI disruption, once again, dominated investor conversations. But beneath the surface level unease something important happened. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index pushed to a new relative high, keeping our broadening thesis alive and well. On one hand, investors are worried about AI driven disruption, CapEx intensity, and potential labor force reductions. On the other hand, capital is still flowing into formerly lagging areas of the market, just as the median stock is seeing its strongest earnings growth in four years. Let's unpack this. First, there's concern AI will lead to job losses. But even if that's the case, there's typically a phase-in period. Companies don't just eliminate labor overnight. Importantly, before these productivity gains are fully realized, we need broad enterprise adoption. That means building out the agentic application layer, integrating AI into workflows, retraining systems and processes. That takes time, and it is still early days in that regard. Second, what we're seeing now is typical of a major investment cycle. Volatility increases as markets challenge the pace of unbridled spending. Dispersion increases as investors debate winners and losers. Leadership rotates, sometimes sharply. There's also something different this time compared to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Today we're in an early cycle earnings backdrop. We've just emerged from what was effectively a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. So, as capital rotates out of the perceived structural losers, it's not just chasing long-term AI beneficiaries, it's also finding classic cyclical winners. On the losing side is long duration services-oriented sectors, particularly software. These areas are more sensitive to uncertainty around longer term cash flows. This area also has a large overhang of private capital deployed over the last 10 to 15 years. There are other forces at play too. Small cap growth, arguably the longest duration segment of the market, began breaking down in late January around the time Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed chair. While major indices barely reacted, more speculative areas may be responding to expectations of tighter liquidity given Warsh's, reputation as a balance sheet hawk. Finally, equity markets are typically more volatile when new Fed chairs assume office. Bottom line, our broader thesis of an early cycle rolling recovery remains intact. Market internals are supportive even if index level action feels choppy. That said, near term volatility is likely to persist as we enter a weaker seasonal window for retail demand, while liquidity remains ample, but far from abundant. With this backdrop, a quality cyclical barbell with healthcare makes sense. In small caps, the higher quality S&P 600 looks more attractive than the Russell 2000. And any short-term volatility could present opportunities to add exposure in preferred cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Industrials, and Financials. Of course, risks remain. AI adoption could accelerate faster than expected, pressuring labor markets more abruptly. Pricing power could erode as efficiency spread, and policy makers could react in ways that slow the CapEx cycle while crowded momentum positioning remains vulnerable. Nevertheless, the signal from the internals is clear. Beneath the volatility this looks less like a market rolling over, and more like one that is confirming an early cycle economic expansion. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

The market is “seeking out existential threats” around AI and tech, argues Scott Ladner. “Fundamentally, [the AI revolution] will be a good thing,” he adds, anticipating it to add jobs in the future and spark an entrepreneurial boom. He thinks we will see a couple of rate cuts this year, and anticipates a “boring Fed” after Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair. His picks right now include financials, cyclicals, and emerging markets. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The end of Jay Powell's term as Fed Chair is approaching, and markets continue to speculate about what Kevin Warsh's tenure might be like. Darius Dale sees his nomination as a signal that money growth is transitioning from the Fed to the banking sector. He explains why this is a critical change and may presage significant deregulation in the financial sector. Darius also shares opportunities he sees in the market, including in emerging markets and regional banks.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair for 2026. What does this leadership shift mean for your wallet? In this episode of Gimme Some Truth, we analyze the Warsh nomination and its immediate impact on monetary policy, interest rates, and the global markets.As Jerome Powell prepares to hand over the gavel, Kevin Warsh brings a distinct philosophy to the FOMC—balancing a "hawkish" view on the Fed's balance sheet with a unique perspective on AI-driven productivity. We dive deep into whether this marks a regime change for inflation targets and how investors should position their portfolios for the "Warsh Era."

Meta Description: Kentucky financial advisors discuss Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s impact on interest rates, market volatility, and retirement portfolios. Dupree insights on portfolio management. When market uncertainty meets changing Federal Reserve leadership, retirees need clear guidance on protecting their portfolios. In this episode of The Financial Hour, Tom Dupree Jr., James Dupree, and Mike Johnson provide direct access to portfolio managers who explain how Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair could reshape your retirement strategy through interest rate changes and market positioning. Understanding Kevin Warsh’s Approach to Federal Reserve Policy The nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has created significant market implications for retirement portfolios. As Tom Dupree explains, “Warsh is gonna have to deal with this stuff and the stock market is not gonna be his only problem.” His unconventional stance differs from traditional dovish or hawkish approaches, creating both opportunities and challenges for income-focused investors. Mike Johnson notes that Warsh “has kind of an odd view” because “he’s been critical of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.” This critical perspective on quantitative easing could fundamentally alter how markets price risk and opportunity, particularly for those managing retirement income portfolios in Kentucky and beyond. Interest Rate Environment and Portfolio Impact The Yield Curve Steepening Effect The current interest rate environment shows a steepening yield curve, where long-term rates rise while short-term rates decline. Mike explains: “You’ve seen the yield curve steep… long-term rates have been going up, while short-term rates are going down.” This creates distinct opportunities across different market segments. Small-cap stocks, which are “more tied to shorter term interest rates,” could benefit from Fed rate cuts on the short end. Meanwhile, high-multiple growth stocks face valuation pressure as long-term rates normalize. Treasury Bonds and Market Positioning The 30-year Treasury currently sits at 4.77%, having fluctuated based on market expectations. As our team discusses, the real question becomes: “Trump wants this guy to get rates lower so that housing will start moving… but rates may end up going higher.” This uncertainty requires active personalized portfolio management rather than passive acceptance of market direction. Market Rotation: From Growth to Value and Income Dividend-Focused Strategy in Volatile Markets Since October, markets have experienced significant rotation from growth expectations into cash-flow-predictable companies. As Mike observes, “You’ve seen a rotation out of growth expectations, high multiple stocks and into things where the cash flow is more predictable.” For retirees seeking consistent income, this shift validates the investment philosophy of focusing on dividend-producing assets. “Regardless of what the price is doing, all else being equal, the dividend, the income stream is still there,” Mike emphasizes. The Speed of Information and Investment Decisions The acceleration of market information flow through technology and AI creates both opportunities and risks. “Every second of every day is the market agreeing with you or disagreeing with you,” Mike notes, highlighting the double-edged nature of instant market feedback. This rapid information environment requires discipline in distinguishing between noise and actionable intelligence. As Tom points out regarding their investment approach: “We started doing in the last several years is buying more things that are just common sense type names… that works better.” Technology Sector Volatility: AI and Memory Chip Stocks Navigating the AI Investment Landscape The artificial intelligence sector has dominated headlines while creating extreme volatility. Recent examples include software stocks experiencing significant drawdowns followed by rapid 16-25% single-day gains. James observes: “An average day with no news, a stock going up 25%… that’s ridiculous.” The team’s approach involves gradual averaging into AI-related positions since September, following detailed sector analysis. “We’ve had calls with them. We wanted to understand the sector better,” Mike explains, demonstrating the value of direct access to portfolio managers who conduct primary research. Memory Chip Stock Opportunities Memory chip manufacturers present compelling valuation opportunities despite recent volatility. The team recently added a position with a forward P/E of just 12, significantly below the S&P 500’s average of approximately 22. Tom notes the stock is “up 300% in the last year” but maintains “earnings to back it.” This disciplined approach to high-growth sectors exemplifies how personalized investment management differs from mass-market strategies that either avoid volatility entirely or chase momentum without fundamental analysis. Learning from Market History: Avoiding Value Traps The Dot-Com Bubble Comparison Drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble provides perspective on current AI valuations. Tom recalls: “People were making fun of Warren Buffett towards the end of the tech bubble… ultimately he had kind of the last laugh.” Not all survivors of market corrections recover equally. Intel, for example, “survived but it took 20 plus years for it to get back to where it was” after the tech bubble burst. This underscores the importance of selectivity even within promising sectors. Management Quality Matters The discussion of Kraft Heinz illustrates how management quality impacts long-term results. Despite being “considered one of the top companies around” with Warren Buffett’s backing, “their management is horrible,” leading to poor strategic decisions and shareholder disappointment. As James concludes: “There’s a reason why CEOs and extremely well, highly talented staff are so highly paid, they’re hard to find.” Key Takeaways for Retirement Investors Kevin Warsh’s Fed leadership could mean higher long-term rates despite lower short-term rates, requiring portfolio adjustments Yield curve steepening creates opportunities in small-cap stocks while pressuring high-multiple growth names Dividend-focused strategies provide income consistency regardless of price volatility Technology sector selectivity matters more than broad exposure, with valuations and earnings fundamentals guiding decisions Management quality and business fundamentals trump thematic investing for long-term success Common sense investments in recognizable companies often outperform obscure “deep value” plays Active portfolio management adapts to rapid market changes while maintaining long-term discipline Frequently Asked Questions How will Kevin Warsh’s Fed leadership affect my retirement portfolio? Warsh’s critical stance on the Fed’s balance sheet and quantitative easing could lead to different interest rate dynamics than previous Fed chairs. Long-term rates may remain elevated even as short-term rates decline, impacting bond valuations and stock multiples. Retirement portfolios should emphasize dividend income and fundamental value rather than relying on Fed accommodation. What is a steepening yield curve and why does it matter? A steepening yield curve occurs when long-term interest rates rise relative to short-term rates. This environment typically benefits small-cap companies that rely on shorter-term financing while pressuring high-valuation growth stocks. For retirement investors, it suggests favoring income-producing assets over growth speculation. Should retirees invest in AI and technology stocks despite volatility? Technology exposure should be sized appropriately for your risk tolerance and income needs. Our approach involves gradual position building in fundamentally sound companies with reasonable valuations, never risking retirement income needs on speculative positions. Direct access to portfolio managers helps navigate these decisions. How do I know if I’m in a value trap versus a true opportunity? Value traps lack the three essential elements: quality management, sustainable earnings, and reasonable business prospects. True opportunities combine all three elements with temporarily depressed valuations. This requires ongoing research and analysis rather than simple valuation metrics. What makes dividend-focused investing effective in volatile markets? Dividend income provides cash flow independent of price fluctuations. As Mike explains, “regardless of what the price is doing… the income stream is still there.” This creates portfolio stability while volatile prices create rebalancing opportunities for patient investors. Take Control of Your Retirement Portfolio Market transitions create both risk and opportunity. The difference between portfolio growth and disappointment often comes down to having personalized investment management with direct access to portfolio managers who actively research positions and adapt to changing conditions. At Dupree Financial Group, our team-based approach means you benefit from comprehensive analysis rather than a single perspective. We focus on income-producing investments, transparent fee structures, and strategies designed specifically for retirees and pre-retirees aged 50 and above. Don’t navigate Fed policy changes and market volatility alone. Call (859) 233-0400 for a complimentary portfolio review or schedule your appointment directly on our website at dupreefinancial.com. Listen to more episodes and insights in our Market Commentary archive. The post How Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Could Impact Your Retirement Portfolio: Interest Rates, Market Volatility, and Investment Strategy appeared first on Dupree Financial.

President Trump recently nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.  In October 2022, Kevin spoke on What Happens Next along with my old boss Myron Scholes who was the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics.In this episode I include excerpts from that previous meeting as well as an additional interview with John Cochrane who is a Professor of Finance and Economics at Stanford's Graduate School of Business and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute, and he will discuss the challenges that Kevin will face in his new job. Get full access to What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein at www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/subscribe

This week, we're fresh off the inaugural TG Macro Conference in Nashville, unpacking all the biggest takeaways ranging from commodity cycles, gold, miners, oil, rates, and market psychology. We also reflect on trading lessons, risk management, and why in-person macro communities matter more than ever. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 — Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:42) Inaugural TG Macro Conference (08:27) Demographics, Debt & Hard Lessons (12:18) Oil, Commodities, Miners (18:54) Gold, Energy & Commodity Cycles (24:21) Rates, Bonds & Global Markets (26:28) Ads (Coinbase) (27:21) Warsh, Yields, Bull Markets (33:09) Market Psychology & Bull Case For America (41:08) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

Chas & Dr Dave discuss Four Drinks in 27 Minutes, The Biggest Liar No Longer in the Government and The War on Anything WARNING: This episode of PEP may contain explicit language.   Timestamps: 0:00 - Introducing: Dr Dave 3:01 - Correspondence (Police Shootings, Sleep, Epstein) 22:13 - Grateful (Jesse Jackson) 43:34 - Grateful (Seditious 6) 54:17 - Economy (Unemployment, Inflation, Polling, Warsh) 1:32:22 - Tangent Treehouse - (AI Stuff) 1:44:34 - Immigration (The Good News, ICE Wilding, Detention)  2:20:16 - Canada Bridge 2:38:30 - DHS Shutdown 2:50:40 - Unleashed (DHS Proposed Reforms)   SHOW LINKS: *Chat with the PEPpers on the Discord Server: https://discord.com/invite/WxDD2PPvaW     Homework: Melinda Cooper Epstein article -  https://bitly.cx/O0iJ Jesse Jackson Wattstax festival - https://bitly.cx/HXAsx   THE (UPDATED) DR DAVE BOOK CLUB MASTERLIST: Connie Willis - Doomsday Book & To Say Nothing of the Dog (Mentioned 4:26, Ep 244) Richard Yates - Revolutionary Road  (Mentioned 1:48:45, Ep 240) Michael Lewis - Who Is Government? (Mentioned 2:19:59, Ep 235) Orlando Whitfield - All That Glitters (Mentioned 2:34:37, Ep 232) John Lyons - Balcony Over Jerusalem (Mentioned 2:45:26, Ep 231) Yukio Mishima - Spring Snow (Mentioned 2:35:12, Ep 227) John Steinbeck - Cannery Row (Mentioned 02:39, Ep 226) David Simon & Ed Burns - The Corner: A Year in the Life of an Inner-City Neighborhood (Mentioned 2:21:40, Ep 225) William Appleman Williams - The Tragedy of American Diplomacy (Mentioned 2:11:23, Ep 222) Mahmood Mamdani - Good Muslim, Bad Muslim (Mentioned 2:07:14, Ep 220) Carlo Rovelli - The Order Of Time (Mentioned 06:36, Ep 220) Carlo Rovelli - Reality Is Not What It Seems (Mentioned 06:36, Ep 220) Ryszard Kapuściński - Shah of Shahs (Mentioned 2:21:27, Ep 217) Ervand Abrahamian - Khomeinism (Mentioned 2:23:19, Ep 217) Anthony Seldon - Truss at 10 (Mentioned 1:36:09, Ep 215) Steven Teles - The Conservative Legal Movement (Mentioned 2:12:12, Ep 215) Amin Maalouf - The Crusades Through Arab Eyes (Mentioned 4:32, Ep 214) Geoffrey Blainey - The Causes Of War (Mentioned 43:49, Ep 198) Margaret Levi - Of Rule And Revenue (Mentioned 1:11:16, Ep 195) Margaret Levi - Consent, Dissent, and Patriotism (Mentioned 1:11:16, Ep 195) Sayaka Murata - Convenience Store Woman (Mentioned 2:14, Ep 194) Sid Meier - Sid Meier's Memoir! (Mentioned 16:30, Ep 178) David Simon & Ed Burns - The Corner (Mentioned 8:40, Ep 178) Maurice O. Wallace - King's Vibrato (Mentioned 14:26, Ep 164) Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky - Manufacturing Consent - (Mentioned 32:12, Ep 164) Robert Plunket - My Search For Warren Harding (Mentioned 1:49:12, Ep 158) Ian Lambot & Greg Girard - City of Darkness Revisited (Mentioned 39:25, Ep 157) Max Chafkin - The Contrarian (Mentioned 32:18, Ep 155) Claire Conner - Wrapped In The Flag (Mentioned 31:42, Ep 155) Rita Abrahamsen, Mike Williams et al - Global Right (Mentioned 31:12, Ep 155) Philip Gorski and Samuel Perry - The Flag And The Cross (Mentioned 30:49, Ep 155) Cynthia Miller-Idriss - Hate In The Homeland (Mentioned 30:10, Ep 155) Cory Doctorow & Rebecca Giblin - Chokepoint Capitalism (Mentioned 34:55, Ep 150) Elizabeth Ingleson - Made In China (Mentioned 31:50, Ep 150) John Corrigan - Religious Intolerance, America, and the World (Mentioned 1:16:18, Ep 141) Gérard Prunier - From Genocide to Continental War (Mentioned 48:18, Ep 141) Liu Cixin, - The Three Body Trilogy (Mentioned 1:11:04, Ep 136) Tilman Allert - The Hitler Salute (Mentioned 22:03, Ep 134) Philip Roth - Nemesis (Mentioned 1:56, Ep 133) Joshua Cohen - The Netanyahus Zeke Faux - Number Go Up Michael Paul Rogin - The Intellectuals and McCarthy Cathy Kramer - The Politics of Resentment Naomi Klein - Doppelganger Maria Bamford - Sure, I'll Join Your Cult Wendy Brown - States Of Injury Corey Robin. - The Reactionary Mind Patricia Lockwood - No One Is Talking About This David Cay Johnston - The Making of Donald Trump Jane Mayer - Dark Money Harry Frankfurt - On Bullshit Stephen King - The Dead Zone Elle Hardy - Beyond Belief Federico Finchelstein - From Fascism to Populism in History Robert Jervis - Why Intelligence Fails Alex Haley and Malcolm X - The Autobiography of Malcolm X Jonathan Haidt - The Righteous Mind David Graeber - Debt: The First 5000 Years Jerry L. Mashaw - Creating The American Administrative Constitution Brian Balogh - A Government Out of Sight Paul Connerton - How Societies Remember Paul Connerton - How Modernity Forgets Catherine Green and Sarah Catherine Gilbert - Vaxxers John Zaller - The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion Matthew Karp - This Vast Southern Empire Robert Fatton - The Guise of Exceptionalism Anatol Lievin - Climate Change and the Nation State: The Realist Case James Alfred Aho - The Politics of Righteousness The substack that Dr Dave apparently plagiarises liberally from! https://luke.substack.com/ James Beverley - God's Man in the White House Jane Chi Hyun Park - Yellow Future Matthias Gardell - In The Name of Elijah Muhammad Gosta Esping-Andersen - The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism Suzanne Mettler - The Submerged State Brendon O'Connor - Anti-Americanism and American Exceptionalism James Morone - Hellfire Nation Nathan Kalmoe - With Ballots and Bullets Winnifred Fallers Sullivan - The Impossibility of Religious Freedom Mary L. Trump - Too Much And Never Enough Richard Cooke - Tired of Winning Jon Ronson - So You've Been Publicly Shamed Rodney Tiffen, Ross Gittins, Anika Gauja, David Smith, Brendon O'Connor - How America Compares Tony Horwitz - Confederates In the Attic Ghassan Hage - White Nation George Lakoff - Women, Fire and Dangerous Things George Lakoff - Metaphors We Live By Michelle Alexander - The New Jim Crow Alex S. Vitale - The End of Policing Dave Cullen - Parkland: Birth of a Movement Thomas Sugrue - The Origins of the Urban Crisis Rick Pearlstein - The Invisible Bridge Rick Pearlstein - Before the Storm Rick Pearlstein - Nixonland Brian Doherty - Radicals for Capitalism Leon Festinger, Henry W. Riecken, Stanley Schachter - When Prophecy Fails Nancy L. Rosenblum & Russell Muirhead - A Lot Of People Are Saying Benjamin Moffitt - The Global Rise of Populism Jon Krakauer - Missoula THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!  

What happens when uncertainty shakes the global economy, and investors start questioning where to put their money? In this episode, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson talks with Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi about slowing job growth, shifting trade and immigration policies, and the market volatility that has investors eyeing gold, silver, crypto, and real estate. Zandi highlights both the risks of a potential recession and the opportunities in U.S. commercial real estate, where prices have corrected significantly. The near term may present “bouts of real anxiety,” says Zandi, but in the long term, he adds, “I'm confident that we'll be fine.” LINKS Mentioned in the episode: Trump taps ex-Fed insider Warsh to lead world's top central bank https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-former-fed-official-warsh-run-fed-2026-01-30/ To hear the globe's top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences: Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 Introduction 00:36 Market uncertainty and investor confusion 00:56 Mark Zandi's background and perspective 02:19 Humility in today's economy 03:24 De-globalization and safe-haven assets 05:45 U.S. commercial real estate as opportunity 07:21 CRE market corrections and valuations 08:59 Relative attractiveness for international investors 10:29 Single-family rental market overview 11:54 Affordability challenges and workforce housing 14:37 Local variations and political complexity 15:16 Job growth stall and recession risk 17:33 Fed rate cuts and policy pressures 20:24 Long-term rates and equilibrium forecasts 22:22 Inflation concerns and consumer impact 25:35 AI, tech investment, and data center boom 26:42 Potential bubbles and market corrections 30:06 Long-term growth perspective for real estate 31:06 Bumps ahead: cyber events and AI oversight 32:35 Optimism: U.S. economy resilience 34:06 Historical perspective and maintaining cool heads

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every. They dicuss a macro/geopolitics sweep, Warsh, Iran escalation risk and USD stablecoins as economic statecraft https://bit.ly/4apIIH5    

Markets are in “wait-and-see mode” for the FOMC minutes today, says Karen Manna. She thinks 10-year bonds will be rangebound between 4-4.25 for now, with 1-2 cuts ahead for the rest of the year. She discusses how fixed-income portfolios may fare in 2026 and contrasts Powell vs Fed Chair nominee Warsh. Karen also looks at corporate bonds vs mortgage-backed securities.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Joshua Wein reacts to the January FOMC minutes and thinks that we may only see one rate cut this year. He warns that Fed Chair nominee Warsh will likely focus on inflation rather than employment, and that the market has tended to predict more cuts than we've seen. However, he thinks one cut is enough to support the economy this year. He also shares some mid-cap picks: Jacobs Solutions (J) and Leidos (LDOS). ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Brad Long reacts to the latest FOMC minutes and notes that dissension is considered uncommon now within the Fed, but not historically. He says the economy is “off to the races,” noting that unemployment and GDP growth are, unusually, about the same percentile. Brad argues that Warsh as Fed Chair might start looking forward rather than being data dependent, which he describes as looking backwards. On AI, he thinks that SaaS may lose “pricing power” to AI but argues that it's too expensive to rebuild systems from scratch with the technology.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

President Trump has made it obvious he wants a Federal Reserve chair who will push for lower interest rates. Does Kevin Warsh fit the bill? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Walsh joins Phil Adler to tell us the answer is complicated.

Lyn Alden joins us to make sense of the “everything, everywhere, all at once” macro moment. A fourth-turning-style unwind of the long-term debt cycle, rising fiscal dominance, and a rare, headline-level clash over Fed independence—plus what a Kevin Warsh Fed might actually do under real-world constraints.  We dig into the “gradual print” era, why gold is ripping, how a more multipolar monetary order could emerge (gold, bitcoin, and stablecoins in different roles), and what trade war dynamics mean for the dollar's privilege.  Lyn also explains why Bitcoin has lagged gold this cycle, how much the four-year crypto cycle still matters, the risks around treasury companies and quantum narratives, and how she's thinking about portfolio construction in 2026. ------

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen argues that the AI narrative is stalling and we're witnessing a sustained rotation from tech, AI, and crypto into safer, income-generating stocks. Chris points out that JPMorgan — arguably the best-run bank in America — has fallen from the top of his rankings to 87th place in just six months, a dramatic shift showing managers are rotating into smaller cap names. He describes this as a "manic, momentum-driven market" where the extraordinary gains of 2025 are now being given back. Chris is skeptical of both the AI and crypto narratives, calling them "driven by Wall Street hype," and notes that crypto is suffering specifically because the AI story has broken down. For 2026, he advises looking for safety and income rather than growth, remains long gold and silver despite volatility, and cautions that "this year is going to be a much more difficult year" for most sectors. On housing and the Fed, Chris lays out what Kevin Warsh and Scott Besant must do: swap the Fed's $2 trillion MBS portfolio to Treasury, restructure low-coupon securities into CMOs, and bury them in insurance company balance sheets to unlock the housing market.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 01:00 AI narrative stalling, tech's worst week since November 1:59 Is this a healthy correction or something bigger? 4:58 JPMorgan now ranks 87th — what does that tell you? 6:36 Small caps rule right now — managers rotating to safety 7:30 What does it mean if managers won't own the best bank in America?8:30 The link between crypto and AI 11:32 Chris is skeptical of both AI and crypto narratives 11:57 What's the next legitimate growth story for the US? 13:15 All that trapped private equity capital in tech 14:55 Fannie and Freddie earnings — but where's the growth? 17:00 What Warsh and Bessent need to do to fix housing 19:00 Should the Fed engage in fiscal issues? 21:54 The Fed's real mandate — keeping the Treasury market open 23:00 What should Warsh do with the MBS on the balance sheet? 24:58 Why we haven't seen a typical crash cycle 26:17 What's the trade for 2026? Safety and income 28:08 PennyMac's mistake — buying Cenlar 31:58 Viewer mail34:39 Gold and silver portfolio — lots of opportunity despite volatility35:00 Closing

The latest in business, financial, and markets news and how it impacts your money, reported by CNBC's Peter Schacknow Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of the Investors Guys Podcast, Kevin Mills and Bill Barnett break down one of the most overlooked but critical shifts facing investors today: the coming change in Federal Reserve leadership—and what it could mean for interest rates, real estate, and the broader economy.In May of 2026, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term is set to end. President Trump has already stated his desire to appoint Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh's economic philosophy and approach to monetary policy differ significantly from Powell's, and many analysts expect that shift to bring meaningful changes to interest rate policy.Kevin and Bill discuss:How a Warsh-led Fed could approach interest rates differentlyWhy this transition matters to real estate investors right nowHow interest rate changes affect not just your buying power, but your end users and exit strategiesWhat investors should be preparing for before the Fed makes its next major movePractical strategies to position yourself ahead of a potential rate shiftThis episode isn't about predictions—it's about preparation. Whether you invest in residential, commercial, or income-producing real estate, understanding where monetary policy may be heading can give you a strategic advantage while others are caught reacting.If you're serious about protecting and growing your investments through the next economic cycle, this is a conversation you need to hear.Subscribe to the Investors Guys Podcast for clear, real-world investing insight without the noise.Federal Reserve interest ratesFed rate changesKevin Warsh Federal ReserveJerome Powell Fed term endinginterest rates real estate investingreal estate investing 2026macro economics real estatereal estate investor strategyinterest rate cycle investinghousing market interest ratesreal estate market forecastFederal Reserve policy explainedTrump Fed Chair Kevin Warshreal estate investing podcastInvestors Guys PodcastKevin Mills real estateBill Barnett real estatereal estate investing educationeconomic outlook investorshow interest rates affect real estate#FederalReserve #InterestRates #RealEstateInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #MacroEconomics #HousingMarket #InvestingStrategy #EconomicOutlook #InvestorEducation

In this episode, we're joined by Joel Warsh, MD—also known as DrJoelGator—board-certified pediatrician, parenting educator, and author of Between a Shot and a Hard Place: Tackling Difficult Vaccine Questions with Balance, Data, and Clarity. Dr. Warsh specializes in integrative pediatrics and is known for helping parents navigate complex health decisions with nuance, evidence, and empathy.We break down the most recent updates to the childhood vaccination schedule, why these changes were made, and how they may impact pediatric care routines and well-child visits. Dr. Warsh explains what parents should know (and what they don't need to panic about), addresses common questions and concerns surrounding vaccine updates, and shares how families can approach these conversations with confidence and clarity.This conversation is designed to empower parents with information—not fear—so they can make informed decisions alongside their pediatrician. Whether you're expecting, parenting young children, or simply trying to stay up to date, this episode offers a thoughtful, data-informed perspective on navigating vaccine updates in today's parenting landscape.About the Guest: Joel Warsh, MD (aka DrJoelGator), is a board-certified pediatrician in Los Angeles specializing in parenting, wellness, and integrative medicine. He is the author of multiple books, including Between a Shot and a Hard Place, and shares educational, balanced content with parents through his popular Instagram account and Substack.Connect with Dr. Joel Warsh:Official Website: www.theshotbook.comBetween a Shot and Hard Placevaccine updates, childhood vaccination schedule, vaccine schedule updates, pediatric vaccine recommendations, vaccine changes for children, parenting and vaccines, vaccine questions for parents, pediatrician vaccine advice, vaccine safety information, integrative pediatrics, informed vaccine decisions, childhood immunizations, parent vaccine concerns, vaccine education for parents, Dr Joel Warsh, DrJoelGator, between a shot and a hard place, parenting wellness podcast, evidence based vaccine informationwww.NewMomTalk.comBuy Me A CoffeeIG: @NewMomTalk.PodcastYouTube: @NewMomTalkMariela@NewMomTalk.comInterested in being a guest? Shoot us an email!- best parenting podcast- best new mom podcast- best podcasts for new moms- best pregnancy podcast- best podcast for expecting moms- best podcast for moms- best podcast for postpartum- best prenatal podcast- best postnatal podcast- best podcast for postnatal moms- best podcast for pregnancy moms- new mom - expecting mom- first time mom

Ben & Tom discuss Costco earnings, small business optimism, and Trump on Warsh. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

We discuss the drivers and implications of the early-February market selloff with guest Justin Livengood, who believes “a broader market is a healthier market.” And Brian Levitt explains why he disagrees with a past statement from Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh, and what he thinks of Warsh's recent opinion that significant productivity gains from artificial intelligence could enable growth without inflation. (Invesco Distributors, Inc.)  

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, lays out his thesis for a "Goldilocks" first half of 2026, characterized by growth inflecting higher alongside continued disinflation — a very equity-positive environment. However, Warren identifies four key risks testing the market's delicate balance: vanishing MAG7 buybacks due to AI capex, software's existential disruption, Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination (which he calls "the worst pick for investors"), and precious metals volatility. Despite these headwinds, Warren argues the most bearish narratives are overdone. He notes that software has moved from overvalued to fairly valued, that post-GFC markets have returned double digits in every year with buyback contractions, and that extreme return dispersion near all-time highs historically resolves in six-month rallies. His core investment thesis: "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted" — rotate from bonds into commodities as the ideal portfolio hedge. Warren maintains his equity overweight, expects the bull case to remain intact through H1, and sees the recent rotation as healthy rather than ominous.Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/https://x.com/WarrenPiesTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Warren Pies 1:16 Macro picture: The secular debasement regime 3:30 Goldilocks for H1 2026 — growth up, inflation down 5:38 Four risks to the delicate balance 12:34 Is the market healthier than people think? The rotation argument16:38 Software went from overvalued to fairly valued 17:26 Markets at record highs 18:30 Extreme dispersion under the surface 22:18 Sentiment: More pessimistic than you'd expect near ATHs30:11 The four risks: Buybacks, software, Warsh, and precious metals30:52 Commodities thesis: When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted 37:38 Kevin Warsh and the Fed 45:22 10-year 49:53 The economy53:33 Where to find Warren and parting thoughts

2/10/2026 PODCAST Episodes #2294 GUESTS: Chris Saxman, Alfredo Ortiz, Todd Sheets, Sheriff David Clarke, Dan "The Ox" + YOUR CALLS! at 1-888-480-JOHN (5646) and GETTR Live! @jfradioshow #GodzillaOfTruth #TruckingTheTruth

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:1) The relentless surge in memory chip prices over the past few months has driven a vast divide between winners and losers in the stock market, and investors don’t see any end in sight. Companies from game console maker Nintendo Co. to big PC brands and Apple Inc. suppliers are seeing shares slump on profitability concerns. Memory producers, meanwhile, are soaring to unprecedented heights. Money managers and analysts are now assessing which firms can best navigate the squeeze by locking in supplies, raising product prices or redesigning to use less memory. A Bloomberg gauge of global consumer electronics makers is down 10% since the end of September while a basket of memory makers including Samsung Electronics Co. has surged roughly 160%. The question now is how much is priced in.2) Alphabet Inc. is selling sterling and Swiss franc-denominated bonds for the first time, including an ultra-rare issue of a 100-year note, following a bumper $20 billion deal in the US. Google’s parent company is offering five tranches each of sterling and Swiss franc notes, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified. The 100-year sterling bond is the first sale of such long-dated debt by a technology firm since the dot-com era. The sterling issue includes tenors of three to 32 years as well as the 100 year bond. The Swiss franc deal includes maturities of three, six, 10, 15 and 25-year bonds. Both deals are expected to price later today, the people said.3) President Trump said his pick to lead the Federal Reserve can stoke the economy to grow at a rate of 15%, an exceedingly rosy target that nonetheless underscores the pressure that Kevin Warsh will face if confirmed to the role. Trump, speaking in an interview with Fox Business, said Warsh was the “runner up” in his last search and that it was a big mistake to pick Fed chair Jerome Powell. It was not fully clear if Trump was referring to year-over-year growth or some other metric. The US economy, which is seen expanding 2.4% this year, has grown at an average annual rate of 2.8% over the past five decades. Gross domestic product has only risen at a 15%-plus pace a few times since the 1950s, including in the third quarter of 2020 as businesses reopened following pandemic-related closures.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Register here to attend the live virtual event "Why Central Florida is the Year's Most Compelling Housing Market" on Thursday, February 19th at 8pm Eastern. Keith looks at how a changing Federal Reserve leadership might shape the interest rate environment, then zooms in on what's really happening with homebuilders versus remodelers across the country.  You'll hear about a lesser-known strategy some investors are using to step back from day-to-day landlording while keeping their income, and then we head to Central Florida to explore why one fast-growing market is quietly becoming a hotspot for new-build rental properties.  Along the way, a longtime Florida builder joins the show to explain how they're creating affordable, investment-friendly homes and what kinds of rents and tenant demand they're seeing on the ground—plus a way you can learn more live if this opportunity fits your own portfolio plans. Resources: Register for the event at GREwebinars.com Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/592 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the naming of a new Federal Reserve Chair. Then are homebuilders in trouble today? There are a dwindling number of them, and their profits are down. I'll talk to a homebuilder. Listen to what amenities tenants want today, and it's interesting. We'll learn how low of a mortgage rate builders will give you. Now there's an opportunity here today on get rich education.   Corey Coates  0:30   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Keith Weinhold  1:14   mid south home buyers with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your return on investment as their North Star. It's no wonder smart investors line up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone headquartered in Memphis, with their globally attractive cash flows, mid south has an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and 4000 houses renovated, there is zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate with an industry leading three and a half year average renter term. Every home they offer you will have brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter in an astounding price range, 100 to 150k GET TO KNOW mid south enjoy cash flow from day one at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com   Speaker 1  2:17   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:33   Welcome to GRE from countersport Pennsylvania to Davenport Iowa and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education now more than ever, where you learn about personal finance and real estate investing matters. There's more AI generated content out there. This show is all flesh and blood me. There's also more clickbait content out there that says something like the housing market is about to have a price crash. No, it's not. They're just there to get short term attention. So your information source really matters today. New incoming Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, was recently named. He will replace the outgoing Jerome Powell on May 15. I want to tell you more about that in a moment. But first, just imagine if this scenario were to occur, say that we get a Fed chair that has to deal with really high inflation. And so what this Fed chair does is that he successfully brings inflation down, and he does that without triggering a recession that's called a soft landing. Well, you know what? That's exactly what Jerome Powell did the past three years. Yeah, that's what he's accomplished, and he doesn't get credit for it. He only gets a lot of criticism. Now this doesn't mean that I love Powell. I don't even know that the Fed should exist at all, but Powell got a lot of criticism for calling 2022, wave of inflation transitory, and being too late to respond to it. So he gets some credit here as his term of more than eight years winds down. Let's listen in to some of Jay Powell's recent comments about succession,    Speaker 2  4:23   you've obviously experienced a lot during your time as Fed chair, served under multiple presidents. I'm wondering what advice you have for whoever your successor might be.   Speaker 3  4:34   Honestly, I'd say a couple of things. One is, you know, stay out of elected politics. Don't get pulled into elected politics don't do it. And that's another thing. Another is that you know, our window into democratic accountability is Congress, and it's not a passive burden for us to go. To Congress and talk to people. It's an affirmative, regular obligation. If you want democratic legitimacy, you earn it by your interactions with the our elected overseers. And so it's something you need to work hard at, and I have worked hard at it so and the last thing is, you know, it's easy to it's easy to criticize government institutions so many ways. I will tell whoever it is you're about to meet the most qualified group of people you not only have ever worked with, you will ever work with and when you meet fed staff. And not everybody's perfect, but, but there isn't a better cadre of professionals more dedicated to the public well being than work at the Fed.    Keith Weinhold  5:43   Yeah. So to Powell's point, the next Fed chair, worsh, does champion fed independence, much like Powell has. That is a good thing that keeps America from turning into a banana republic that maintains a strong dollar. Warsh was actually a Fed Governor back during the 2008 global financial crisis, so he's got that experience when he comes in as Fed Chair in three months, he's widely expected to lower interest rates more than Powell did, much like the president wants. Kevin Warsh looks a lot like Michael Scott from the office. He has got to be less bumbling than him, though, overall, the effect on real estate and mortgage rates by shifting from PAL to worsh, I mean, that should be pretty mild. Maybe you'll see rates go a little lower than if pal had stayed and speaking of rates, wait till you see how low the mortgage rate is that our homebuilder guest is offering today. What's really happening with homebuilders now? How much trouble are they in? Homebuilders have largely been maligned. Overall. There are fewer homebuilders today in America than there were 20 years ago, and there are more remodelers than there were 20 years ago, fewer home builders, more remodelers, and that's for a few different reasons. Over the past couple decades, we just have substantially higher labor and material costs, stricter building and energy codes, higher interest rates, and that disproportionately hurts long duration construction projects. We've got zoning constraints and land constraints that make ground up development slow and uncertain and risky. So while the number of Home Builders in America is down, the number of remodelers are up, because America's housing stock is getting older. Its median age is over 40 years, and that creates constant demand for upgrades. Capital prefers faster, lower risk cycles. That's what remodels offer, and homeowners with locked in low mortgage rates choose to stay in place. And what does that make them do? That makes them renovate and remodel, not move. So this is why, compared to 20 years ago, you have fewer home builders and more remodelers. Today, that's per the NAHB and the Census Bureau and all these forces, they've resulted in a lower profit margin for homebuilders. Yes, homebuilder margin compression for a lot of the bigger builders, including DR Horton, just as you might guess in this cycle, their profits were greatest in 2022 and they have fallen since then. Higher mortgage rates came in, and builders had to lose profits by offering more incentives to entice buyers. You're going to learn more about that today and how it really spells quite an opportunity for you and I. When the final change in national home prices was tallied for the end of last year, they had risen in 16,500 zip codes. All right, that's 63% of America's zip codes, and prices were lower from a year earlier in the other 37% home price gains were concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, and the story there continues to be too many buyers and not enough homes. In fact, over 85% of zip codes saw price growth in Illinois, Connecticut, Wisconsin and Indiana, slow, steady, stubborn, kind of like winter refusing to leave. Losses were predominant in the Sun Belt. Prices caught their breath there. There was price attrition in Florida, with 96% of zip codes, so nearly all of Florida, then California, 78% of zip codes had a price loss. Texas, 75% of them and Arizona, 73% the biggest pocket of opportunity appears to be in Florida. Florida property is on sale. And because real estate is local. A lot of times we talk here nationally, but to get to that local level, sometimes you have to dig in to a local market to really find out what's going on. We're going to do that today. Now, central Miami, Orlando and Tampa, they're not generally the spot for obtaining cash flow from long term rentals. I've identified an opportunity. We'll get into that with this Florida homebuilder shortly. It's kind of funny. You'll run into people that say they want opportunity, but what they really want is certainty. How it plays out, though, is that once the certainty arrives, the opportunity is gone, and that's how to think about Florida and maybe Texas and some of these other markets today that have had price attrition.    Keith Weinhold  10:48   Now, three weeks ago, here on the show, I discussed the 721 exchange for the first time. So I won't get into all those details again when it comes time for you to sell your investment property, the 721 can be the best way for you to cash out. Perhaps you've been investing in real estate for a while and you have turned get rich education into got rich education. How the 721 exchange works is they basically say you have a case where you're a rental property owner and you realize that you don't want the hassles of landlording anymore. Oftentimes, this can mean you're older and real estate investing already took you where you wanted it to take you in life's journey, but you still like the financial benefit that ownership gives you. What you can do is exchange your properties into a partnership and receive shares in that partnership. Now that's different than a 1031, exchange. That's where you trade up some of your property that you directly own for what's usually more and larger property that you directly own. Well, instead, here's the big deal with exchanging your properties into a 721, partnership. The rules stipulate that this is not a taxable event, and therefore you don't have to pay any capital gains tax or depreciation recapture. Now that you're an owner in the partnership, you still get some of the benefits of owning the property, like appreciation and cash flow and such, yet no management or landlording at all like you would have with a 1031 and with a 721 you get all these benefits across a greater number of properties and markets diversification because you're a fractional owner in the other properties that are in the partnership, not only your own, and when you eventually pass away, your shares are stepped up in basis and can be distributed equally to heirs and C It's surely easier for you to divide shares among, say, your three children, than it is to divide your 18 rental houses among three children Who are going to have different goals and varying degrees of financial savvy. So the 721, exchange is a great estate planning tool too. You will have this partnership that makes an offer to buy your property. You're exchanging them for partnership shares. There's a firm that does this called flock homes, and they have a certain Buy Box to be clear with the 721, exchange, you can basically trade your rentals for shares in a diversified, professionally managed Real Estate Fund. This means that you keep your hard earned equity defer capital gains and other taxes, and you still get access to steady income and long term appreciation without the hassle of landlord duties, and you can visit flockhomes.com/gre, and get a free valuation. Get an offer for your property, see if it fits their buy box and see how much they'll pay you. There's often no need to pay to fix up or stage the property for sale or pay agent commissions for a certain investor type. This really can be a rather life changing experience for you to liquidate some or all of your property have zero tax obligation and still enjoy income and appreciation. So again, what you can do is stop by flock homes.com/gre, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/g, R, E, let's discuss the home building climate today.   Keith Weinhold  14:38   I'd like to bring in a premium Florida homebuilder guest to the show, Jim, because there has been more homebuilding in Florida such that some areas of the state have excess supply. And when you add that onto the fact that the hot pandemic migration to Florida has slowed such that home prices have made a rare dip in the state, that is why it. A timely topic. Jim, you're on GRE Welcome to the show. Keith, great to be here. Thanks for having me. Yeah, and we did the IRL thing in Colorado there a few weeks ago. That was great hanging out in person. You provide entry level new build homes, mostly in Central Florida. And these are properties that are conducive to real estate pays five ways. These are properties that investors chiefly buy as rentals. So just bigger picture, tell us about that overall experience over, say, the last five years, as the pandemic wound down,    Jim Sheils  15:35   yeah, as the pandemic wound down, obviously Florida had a lot of attention. Some of it, rightly so, some of it, I think a little more inflated and commercial attention getting thrown at it. And you know, the type of deals that you and I have always stayed away from were very popular in Florida. You know, we're talking really nice houses. Keith, beautiful, nice HOAs people got in in 2021 let's say, with those very low interest rates on a six or $700,000 home, but now they're realizing that it's not going up $100,000 a year as they thought. And when they try to sell it, well, people trying to buy in $700,000 home, they're not getting that low interest rate. And if these people try to hold it and rent it, well, it doesn't cash flow, so it breaks one of those rules. It's not putting money in people's pockets, taking it out. And so we're seeing there was a large distribution of those types of houses around Florida. And then there were some builders like us that really focused on what was the most needed, and that was workforce housing. Now workforce housing, though, Keith, as you know, a lot of the builders don't want to build it. Why? Let's be straight. It's because the margins are lower right. But as you know, with me and my partner Chris, it was always let's make less margin and do more volume. That was always our model, and that was the area of the market where we felt we could build it right, we could get it financed right, and we could manage it right to hit the five things. And so we're seeing today, post pandemic, there are still key markets where the population growth is still the highest, coming into Florida, the prices are still the lowest, and there is a shortage of this type of workforce housing.   Keith Weinhold  17:11   Yes, you've identified a geography within Florida that have some of these characteristics like you're talking about. Tell us more about that region.   Jim Sheils  17:20   Yeah, we call it the Ocala region, so Central Florida, just west of Orlando. Right now, for example, u haul does their U haul top markets rankings every year? So where are the most U haul trucks going to now, you don't want to be on their side where they're coming from, Keith, because that's obviously the opposite. But for the second year in a row, the greater Ocala area has been the number 1u haul destination place in the country. So there's still a ton of population growth going there. Central Florida, I'm not going to say it sat out the growth during the pandemic that a lot of areas of Florida did, but it was starting at such a low basis with such a small amount of attention that today, even when people say, oh gosh, like I just said, house is 600 700 800,000 we're building new construction single family homes for under 300,000 the 270s a lot of the time. And we're building duplexes sometimes for under 400,000 and a lot of our you know, investors coming from the west coast. Say, are these fully built? Are they? But again, Central Florida has had a great affordability. Remain intact. It has a large population going in. There is a ton of job resource just blowing up in the area. And as you know, these are the things we look for. So we bought a lot of lots there. I'm gonna give credit to my partner, Chris. He saw calla more than I did, and we bought a lot of lots there in 2020 so before all the rises. So we got into the land basis, right? So that means we can build them at a great price. Our land basis is low, and that obviously passes along to our clients. And again, Central Florida is a perfect match for our goal. Because, you know, our goal is workforce housing, that cash flows on day one. But also nothing wrong with fixer uppers. I own a lot. I used to do a lot, but the new construction seems to have a little bit more of a less involvement, which it seems like a lot of our clients want.   Keith Weinhold  19:15   That was really prescient, as it turned out, for your business partner, Chris there to gobble up a lot of that land in 2020 before prices went soaring. And this is one reason why you can do things like offer a duplex for less than 400k That's a new build, which has some people saying like, does that thing include a roof even? But it surely does. These are very good quality livable properties. And the reason I have you here, Jim is because you are rare. There are fewer builders today than there were in decades past, and also those that build to your point earlier. They only want to build higher end properties, not the more affordable ones that you offer. We'll get more details on your price points and what properties. Products you offer later. But yeah, we have more remodelers today and fewer builders. And though it's a few years old, I found it interesting that census statistics show us that between 2007 and 2022 there are 73% more remodelers and 21% fewer builders today.    Jim Sheils  20:22   Interesting. You know, Keith, I didn't know that, and that makes me scratch my head on like when you and I were in Colorado, we were talking about future needs, even with growth that occurred during the pandemic going all the way back to oh eight when a real shortage started to start, we are still at an estimated three to 5 million homes short in the US. It really perplexes me that the amount of builders like us will be going down and not actually entering the market.   Keith Weinhold  20:47   Now, among those that are building, though, much of that is concentrated in the South, as I think we know, there's a recent resi club compilation show that 59% of current single family home building is in the south, and 41% is everywhere else. And how do you define the South? That's basically Maryland down to Florida, all the way out to Texas and Oklahoma. So you are pretty rare in some ways. However, where you're building regionally, that's not a rarity there, but yeah, having more remodelers today and fewer home builders, that's probably the result of a lot of things. You know, for one thing, just land and construction costs becoming that much more expensive over the past five years.   Jim Sheils  21:05    Yeah, we've been lucky, too, as you know, Keith, you've been with us for a decade now. But yeah, and we transitioned a piece of our company where Sumitomo forestry, large Japanese group stepped in and acquired a piece of our property. That was a very exciting thing for all of us together, because we had done well, and, you know, started small and built up to a decent sized builder for Northeast Florida and then the rest of Florida. But now, with Sumitomo coming in again, they build 17,000 homes worldwide every year, between all of their builders. Now being a part of them, we get to use their national material accounts, so they get pricing just as good, if not better, than national home builders, and they let us do our thing, stick to our build to rent, working with investor clients. We're not retail buyer guys, really. We like working with our investors, but just getting those great discounts on materials, again, we're always looking to pass on savings to our clients. Of course, we got to make margins as well, but if we're getting in with deals like that, getting into the land right, and knowing the pinpointed areas to get into, we can get the best deal for everyone. And that's been a major part having such a big, successful partner like Sumitomo keep us healthy, viable and able to do things we could have not even dreamed of five years ago.   Keith Weinhold  22:47   Yes, that gives you more capital and more options. Another unusual aberration in the market that really centers on a lot of what you do is that this fact that and this was mentioned on the show last year for the first time in my life, existing homes cost more than new build homes. Existing homes at about 420k nationally, and new build homes about 392k part of the divergence there is probably builder price cuts. So tell us more about that.    Jim Sheils  23:14   I think the issue Heath is builders built for largest spreads, and people bought very emotionally. I think you're to give you a compliment a very unemotional real estate buyer. You're not looking at, oh, this is a very nice, you know, extra his and hers porcelain sink. And we're looking at fundamental numbers a good, solid property. And I think what's caused a lot of that is people did the opposite. Builders were looking for the largest margin they could get, which was on those types of properties. And then buyers were looking very emotionally, and they were told, Hey, this is going to go up 50 to $100,000 a year. So just sit there and hold on, sure you'll lose $1,500 a month, but don't worry about it. You'll make up for that every year. And obviously we're not seeing that's true. They could have really used your class about the five ways to get paid in real estate. And I think that that's what's doing it. And this is what builders do. I mean, everyone's in a business, and a lot of builders just focus on the largest margin. Now that's eating them up now, because those types of properties are not in demand. To build them on spec would be very dangerous, but you can see that that worked for a short term. We're very glad we went to the low margin workforce housing model, because I see that falling out of favor almost never even in Oh 809, Keith, when I was in the remodel game, a lot of the properties that were new construction coming out that time they were affordable, still did very well.   Keith Weinhold  24:42   We're talking with a premium Florida homebuilder today, because they offer affordable properties that make sense for investors. But what about the demand? Where is that going to come from? Where is that going to be? And that's what's happening with the renter segment. We'll talk more about that when we. Come back. You're listening to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,   Keith Weinhold  25:03   flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem, property or your whole portfolio through a 721, exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, it's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties qualify@flockhomes.com slash GRE, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/gre.    Keith Weinhold  25:39   You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom, family investments.com/gre, or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,   Keith Weinhold  26:51   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   Ken McElroy  27:26   this is Rich Dad advisor, Ken McElroy. Listen to get rich education with Keith whitehold, and don't twitch your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  27:40   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking with Jim a premium Florida homebuilder here at such an interesting time in the cycle, since supply is up in some parts of Florida, Jim and his team has strategically chosen a place that is still fueling a lot of net in migration in Central Florida, and that's where the rental demand needs to come from as well. Now nationally, we've seen the homeownership rate fall over about the past year, from near 66% to near 65% that does not sound like much, but a 1% shift means there are 1.3 million new renters in just the past year. So with that in mind, and the fact that this low affordability for home buying means that people need to rent or stay renters longer, provides some of the Sustainable demand. So tell us more about the rental demand in Central Florida.   Jim Sheils  28:39   Yeah, you know, when we first went out there about a decade ago, Keith, I think it was 82 or 83% of all properties out there were owner occupied, which means it was a very lopsided amount of existing rental property available. And this is before the curve of population growth really took off. But when Chris and I went out there and we were assessing that small percentage of rental property that was out there. Gosh, it was old and kind of beat up. There was not a lot like the new construction that was available. So when we brought in new construction, we saw just the competition. Was hard to compete with us. You know, when it was an older, not so nice taking care of we came in and we saw a jump from, you know, doing older houses ourselves, you know, a person would stay about 13 months. But for the new construction in Central Florida, we've seen a jump to about three years. So that's really positive. People get into a new construction property they don't want to leave, whether that's half of a duplex or a single family. The duplexes are interesting because we're able to build those on infill lots and existing single family home neighborhoods, so a person who doesn't want to live in an apartment can live there, have their own yard, and they couldn't afford the whole single family, but to have half of a single family basically what a duplex is. It makes a big difference, and the people are in great demand of rental in Central Florida there because of exactly why. I said, Keith, the job. Course, continues to grow in Central Florida, extremely strong. The business incentives to come into the area by the local municipality is very, very good. So here's something interesting, Keith, the average salary in Ocala is about 72,000 and the average home price is about 298,000 that is a very healthy affordability one. Yeah, very, very good. And so that job source continues to pay very well. And we've talked about just the logistics centers and the Equestrian Center. That's the largest in the world. Now the villages are just 25 miles south. So Ocala becomes a bedroom community, and that is the second largest retirement community and growing in the US. So there's a lot of job source that allows people to live there at a good affordability. And so that combination of affordability with this extending job source has been really, really good for the Ocala region.   Keith Weinhold  30:59   It's been said that the only place you get money is from other people, and we're talking about your renters in this case. So oftentimes these renters, they had their sense of privacy there, like, for example, do the duplexes even have fenced backyards for each individual side,   Jim Sheils  31:17   depending on where they are? We will. Other times it hasn't been a requirement. We've done lots of surveys to see is it worth the price point to put in full fencing in certain areas. It can be in a lot of areas. Keith, they're just so excited with the price point not having to move into an apartment building that it hasn't even been warranted or necessary.   Keith Weinhold  31:38   Yeah. So we're talking about livability characteristics here, because oftentimes new build rental property results in a higher tenant stay that longer duration, because they're the first person that have ever lived there, and it's also difficult for them to go out and improve their living situation unless they become a home buyer, and that's difficult to do today. Tell us more about the incentives and the property types and so on, because there really are some pretty exciting ones.    Jim Sheils  32:09   One of the best things about Central Florida, Keith, combined with new construction, is insurance costs. Now you and I have laughed about the blanketed statement where you said, oh my goodness, you cannot get insurance in Florida. You can't get property insurance in Florida, or it's doubled, tripled, gone up 7x that is a true statement on certain properties. If you're buying older properties from the 1950s that are within a half mile of the beach on low lying ground, but new construction properties far away from the beach, that is a totally different things. So again, being in Central Florida, where we are, a lot of people think, oh, to insure a single family home there, that's going to be several $100 a month, when actually, you know, and you've seen a lot of our performer quotes, our insurance companies are getting a single family home done for about $65 a month on average, full coverage. And that's the advantage of new construction. Insurance companies are all about risk. They analyze risk. When you're on a new construction property built on higher ground away from the beach, they like that, and they do that a duplex. You're looking at about $100 a month. So incentive wise, we've really searched to team up with great insurance companies that get the best rates full coverage. And again, we surprise people when they say, Oh man, I thought there would be a whole nother zero at that monthly cost. And these are actual quotes, as you know, with working with a lot of GRE people. So that's one great thing, another great thing, Keith, that happened when we joined forces with Sumitomo. And again, Sumitomo 320, years old, one of the biggest powerhouses out of Asia, Warren Buffett, is very heavily invested in another one of the conglomerates, not the housing one we do, but he's very involved in one of their other companies. And when they came aboard, you know, we have no bank debt for a builder, which is rare. And since we have such a healthy balance sheet, we're actually able to work deals with mortgage companies where we'll do what's called builder forward commitments, Keith, and that means we will pre buy mortgages for our clients, for the homes we're building, and we will pass that savings along. So right now, you know, if an investment property in a duplex might be an average of 7% for anyone who walks in off the street to a bank. Right now, our most popular rate program for our investors, for single family or duplexes, is 3.75 Gosh. So as you know, for your five ways, if we want to get cash flow, there's a big difference. Yeah, we're getting affordable housing. But if the rate is over 7% compared to 375 that could eat up the cash flow with us being able to have this power to buy large tranches of money and pass it along and lock our people in again, an average right now at 3.75 is our most popular program, and that's long term money, then we're able to get that cash flow right off the bat. And you and I know how important that is   Keith Weinhold  34:50    for this super attractive 3.75% long term mortgage rate on single family homes and duplexes. How? Much does the buyer have to come out of pocket at the closing table to buy that down themselves? And how much do you the builder participate in that buy down?   Jim Sheils  35:07   You know, it depends Keith at different times, because there is a little bit of a fluctuation. Sometimes it can be as low as zero points or just one origination point to bring it in. It does vary. And also, if people say, hey, I really don't want to bring in any points. Well, that's fine. You know, if you don't want to walk in zero to 2% points for that, you can also just raise your rate up to four and a quarter and probably walk in nothing. So there's different things that we can do, but the goal of it is to have us have the brunt of it. And what I can tell you is, if the average person walked into a bank, and a bank wouldn't do this anyway. It's only for, again, builders with a certain size, but if you went into a bank right now and said, I'd like to buy my rate down to 3.75 the average Keith that this would cost a person off the street going into a bank would be 12 to 15% banks wouldn't even do it for an individual. But that's about the estimates when you look at it. So again, volume has privileged. The fact we're able to buy it down. It does cost us a good amount of money, but we're all able to save since we're kind of working together to buy these larger tranches. And again, the need of any investment for buying down the rate from the clients is very minimal.   Keith Weinhold  36:18   Tell us more about the property types, new build single family homes, new build duplexes.   Jim Sheils  36:23   You know, single family and duplexes are our main focus in 2026 for Central Florida, we've done the research. They're very high in demand. They rent quickly, and they rent long term to produce cash flow. Our average single family home under 300,000 we're aiming to after expense, make about $300 cash flow. Our duplexes should be about twice that amount, about just under $600 a month, or just over in cash flow. And then again, the prices are ranging from about 395, to 420, for a duplex. Again, these are in workforce areas where we're doing great, scattered lots. Scattered lot means there's already existing homes around. We like to go to an area where there's good a fundamental balance of homeowners and renters. So there's retail buyers that have bought their first home, and we will place our rentals in between them, whether it's a single family or a duplex.   Keith Weinhold  37:13   We sure don't need to do a complete audio pro forma here, but those cash flow amounts something near $300 for a single family home, and about double that for a duplex. Is that using, you know, a bought down rate to about 4% and some of these other inputs you're talking about, like low insurance costs and a certain property tax rate, can you tell us about that?    Jim Sheils  37:35   Yeah, property tax rate is property tax rate. We can get pretty dang close on property taxes, you know, based on millage and get that down. But when we do our performers, we absolutely go off of, you know, our average rate to be the 375, to four and a quarter. And then when GRE clients look at our performer, and they look at the insurance cost, that's an actual quote from one of our insurance companies that has insured hundreds and hundreds of these properties. Not a guess, yeah, so they know what they're doing. So yeah, those would be the assumptions made in there, and that's what we're basically getting on a week in, week out basis.    Keith Weinhold  38:09   That is really attractive as we're talking about new build. I imagine there is some sort of builder warranty as well.    Jim Sheils  38:16   There's a state mandated 210 warranty. 210 warranty is something we could talk probably a whole episode on Keith. But for what's good for people to know, basically what that means, you get two years coverage on the small stuff and 10 years coverage on the big structural stuff. And so that's why I like new construction. You know what? I used to personally just buy my own fixer up Return key properties from other people. I could get a one year warranty, and that's the best that really can be done. Now with new construction, we've gone from, you know, with our fixer upper homes, able to do a one year warranty, which is good at something. But now with new construction, we can do a 210 warranty, big difference, and also really helps the safety score of issues if they came up.    Keith Weinhold  38:59   We were talking about new build property, and we tend to project relatively low maintenance and repair costs for an obvious reason, maybe your long term vacancy rate could very well be lower as well, due to my earlier point about a tenant wanting to stay there for a long time, because it's hard for them to improve their living situation unless they went out and bought their own place. And you have the low insurance rates, and you have the low mortgage rates, all contributing to positive cash flow on a new build property. And we think about that tenant and what gets the tenant excited? We start to think about some of those amenities. So tell us about what amenities are offered, including inside, in the kitchen and so on.   Jim Sheils  39:38   Jim, yeah, great question, Keith. We've really gotten a great recipe for success for that. You know, we've been doing this a little over a decade now, and so you're always tweaking your build model. What do people like? What do they not like? What's good for durability? Let's look at maintenance and repairs. Let's look at turn costs. So our goal is always the dual focus. That's what looks good. And what lasts really well, yeah, because you want durability. When you have tenants, you want it to look good, so you sell it down the road, 510, years to a first time homebuyer, it looks great. You can sell it. But durability wise, you don't want a lot of extra expenses or maintenance and repairs. So we go durability. So what we found a couple of things. I always joke about this. I do not like the word carpet, Keith, that is a terrible swear word in real estate investing, I can tell you right now, if I could go back and this is not, you know, owning hundreds of rentals, if I could not have done carpet and just reversed it to like vinyl plank flooring, like we do now, or even tile, which was more, I probably would have been able to buy three or four of our duplexes cash with the amount of money, and that is not an exaggeration. So we do not do carpet. First of all, it seems like trends are changing. It's not in favor right now. So we do vinyl plank flooring, which looks really nice, almost like wood floors, super durable, though, for a young family that's going to be tenant occupied in your property and running around on it. That's great. Kitchen wise, again, we don't sell retail really. We like to work with investors, but down the road, our investor might want to sell to a retail buyer. So we know, you know, from our old fix and flip days of the FHA buyers, the kitchen's got a pop. So we always do, you know, we don't do the white appliances, which you know would save you quite a bit of money, and save us quite a bit of money. We do stainless steel appliances. We do all new cabinetry, you know, kind of the latest, nicer cabinetry, a little bit of an upgrade. And then, you know, butcher block countertops, those are going to wear in about a year or two. Keith, it feels really good to spend that smaller amount, you know. But we, we like to do the more durable, nice looking countertops, you know, that are, you know, just so much more esthetically pleasing and actually durable as well. Same thing in the bathrooms. A lot of new builders will do shower kit, which not a problem if you're saving money on a rehab, you know, but we would rather do tile, bring in the extra subcontractors to give tile, and then in the master we do the dual sinks, which this might sound like little stuff, Keith, but these are the micro movements that help get a tenant in quicker, stay longer and more rent. So we're always trying to do these extra things in the granite countertops, both in the kitchens and in the bathrooms. Those cost more upfront, but we see for long term of tenant we see, for the amount of rent we get, and for resale ability, because a lot of people don't think about that. You know what? In seven years you want to sell one of these properties? Well, it's a seven year old roof, it's seven year old plumbing, you're still in a great spot for an FHA buyer. And that esthetically pleasing flooring, bathrooms, kitchens. That allows an easier sale for them, because we want to look all the way around, not just a rental. I like to hold long term, but if you want to sell in five to 10 years, that's a very valid strategy.    Keith Weinhold  42:48   I like carpet in my own home, but not rentals. But what you're sharing with us, Jim, this is absolute gold that's been brought to you through experience. This over improvement versus under improvement line in rentals, and it really has a lot of balance between durability and price. These are the sort of things that really matter, but you are selling predominantly to individual investors, a lot of mom and pop investors. Why don't you make more sales to the retail, owner occupied market, or to institutional investors, even though that might be cracked down upon now. But why don't you sell to those parties?   Jim Sheils  43:26   Yeah, you know Keith, I did a lot of fix and flip to FHA buyers, and I'm an investor. I really like working with investors. So when this all really went back to is 2009 I had a lot of investors. I was in Northeast Florida. The deal flow was incredible. And I just had a lot of investors, you know, through my different networks and Masterminds, like, where you and I have met, and said, Hey, you're getting great deals in Northeast Florida. Could you help put some together for me? And so I had done quite a few fix and flips to retail buyers, and it just kind of hot on me, you know, way back then, like, Wow. I like working with investors. I like building portfolios. I also like the fact that when I'm normally building a portfolio for an investor, well, they hang out with other investors, and they're not looking to buy one property over the next five years. They're looking to buy five to eight properties over the next five years. great point. And so we just saw it as you gotta like who you work with, right? And nothing against first time homebuyers. But when I was rehabbing houses and selling them, golly, that was a lot of work. And then could be persnickety. Yeah, very persnickety. And so when Chris and I teamed up about 10 years ago, we had both gone through the same kind of aha, like going, Yeah, it seems great, but you could sell for more to a retail buyer. But again, like I go back to even the type of property we build, we'd rather do a volume with investors. Be a builder, buy investors for investors, and work that way. And I think it suits me. I think I would have probably hung up my shoes a long time ago if I was. Working with the amount of properties we've done with retail buyers compared to investors, honestly, and so I think it was just kind of, it was a preference, really, that made sense   Keith Weinhold  45:09   to your point. Investors buy multiple properties, and that way there are fewer parties to deal with. And investors tend to be less emotional than those more persnickety, owner occupied buyers. Well, Jim, you make it easy for investors. Besides all these incentives, you also offer an in house management solution for these investors, often that tend to be out of state. Well, Jim, before I ask you, if you have any closing thoughts, would you the listener like to ask Jim any question directly? Well, you can, because I have a great event to tell you about next Thursday, the 19th, at 8pm eastern Jim here and GRE investment coach, Naresh will co host a live webinar for Central Florida new build income property. In fact, Jim, I think you know Naresh longer than I have, as it turns out, but this event is free, and you the listener are invited. We've had between 250 and 550 registrants for our past webinars. Not all of them attend live. So the benefit of you attending live is that you can have any of your questions answered by either Naresh or Jim in real time, and besides learning about the Central Florida market and more about home building, you are going to see available new build income property, real addresses with some of these rather grand incentives that we've talked about here, you might end up with a long term rate of about 4% again, it is Thursday, the 19th at 8pm Eastern. Sign up is open now at grewebinars.com that's grewebinars.com Any final thoughts here, Jim, for this great event coming up next week?   Jim Sheils  46:52   I think we're going to dig a little deeper. Obviously, this is a conversation that was great, but moves pretty quickly when we talk next week, we're going to be able to dig into more of the fundamentals, some of the stats, and just get underneath the hood of why Central Florida is making so much sense, and just some of the rising stars that we're seeing there that we're very excited to be a part of.   Keith Weinhold  47:13   You've helped our listeners for close to 10 years now. It's been an informative chat as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.    Jim Sheils  47:21   Thanks for having me, Keith.   Keith Weinhold  47:27   Yeah, like our guest touched on Ocala, Florida now has national recognition as the fastest growing city in America, and that's for the second year in a row. According to a new U haul report, Florida is, of course, a rather landlord friendly state. In fact, Florida is the first state to enact a law that allows law enforcement to immediately remove squatters, distinguishing them from legal tenants. Now here's what's interesting and why I've identified this opportunity if Florida prices dipped because people were leaving now, that could be a red flag, because population loss is like gravity. Once it starts falling, it is hard to escape. But that's not what's happening. Instead, what we're seeing is a temporary overbuild hangover. Builders got ambitious. We're in a brief period where supply outran demand and prices softened. That's not decay. That's a sale rack. Any vacant homes are not stranded. They're being absorbed by Florida's still growing population, which has now increased every single decade since its first census count, back in the year 1830 back in 1830 there were about 35,000 residents in the whole state. Isn't that amazing today? North of 24 million, that is 700x population growth in almost 200 years, and it's still growing. That kind of trend doesn't reverse because a few builders over ordered inventory here at GRE this made us target and find in opportunity. This isn't an accident. Central Florida is this year's most compelling. Housing market in that region, Central Florida, is growing faster than the rest of the state at large, and it really sits in the sweet spot of this temporary imbalance. One long established builder overbuilt and now they're motivated. They know what investors want. So, for example, they don't build swimming pools with their homes. They also offer property tours, and over 90% of their tour attendees buy property. They're willing to offer terrific incentives at our upcoming GRE live webinar, like we touched on new build single family rentals, 270k and up duplexes, three. 95 to 420, long term mortgage rates as low as 3.75% you get low insurance rates since they're inland and new build positive cash flow and a builder warranty at the event. You're going to learn all about the growth drivers in Central Florida, why so many renters are moving there and see available properties. This benefits anyone looking for a clear, practical view of current real estate conditions. Joining live does matter, since you can have those questions answered in real time, not after the opportunity has moved on, you are invited for next Thursday, the 19th, at 8p m Eastern. This one is worth circling, not because it's flashy, because it's timed right. Sign up is open now @grewebinars.com that's gre webinars.com. Until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 5  51:00   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  51:29   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com  

Michael Zuber and Jason Hartman analyze the current financial landscape, specifically contrasting volatile speculative assets with stable income-producing real estate. Jason defines a true investment as one that generates consistent income, labeling Bitcoin, gold, and silver as mere speculations or stores of value rather than wealth creators. The conversation highlights a significant housing supply shortage across the United States, which the speakers believe provides a "moat" of protection for property owners. They predict that while commercial syndications may face significant financial pain and devaluations, the single-family rental market remains a historically proven asset class. Ultimately, the source emphasizes that favorable monetary policies and high demand for housing will continue to benefit conservative real estate investors over the next decade. #RealEstate #Bitcoin #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #Investing #HousingShortage #Multifamily #Syndication #Economy #YieldCurve #JasonHartman #MarketVolatility #RenterNation #FinancialTrends #PropertyInvestment #GoldSpeculation #InterestRates #CommercialRealEstate   Key Takeaways: 0:00 What an investment is or is not 8:15 Hawk or Doves and the yield curve 14:02 Renter nation and housing supply 19:07 We need more supply  23:43 US Vacancy rates and the pain that remains 26:31 Catch Jason at Michael's event      Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

2/9/2026 PODCAST Episodes #2292 GUESTS: Dr. Dave Brat, Dr. Alejandro Diaz, Chris Saxman + YOUR CALLS! at 1-888-480-JOHN (5646) and GETTR Live! @jfradioshow #GodzillaOfTruth #TruckingTheTruth

La nominación de Kevin Warsh como posible figura clave dentro de la Reserva Federal (Fed) provocó una reacción inmediata en los mercados financieros. Pero más allá del movimiento de precios, este episodio se enfoca en entender la señal macroeconómica detrás del nombramiento. Analizo por qué Warsh es comparado con Paul Volcker, qué implica priorizar el control de la inflación por encima de la liquidez, y cómo esta decisión encaja en el contexto político actual, especialmente en un entorno de elecciones y creciente presión sobre la independencia de la Fed. También revisamos qué nos enseñan crisis pasadas, por qué la tecnología actúa como una fuerza deflacionaria que muchos subestiman, y por qué los mercados están comenzando a diferenciar activos en lugar de subir todo al mismo tiempo. Este episodio no es para reaccionar al titular, sino para leer el ciclo completo: política monetaria, bonos, acciones, oro, liquidez… y lo que este escenario podría significar para activos como Bitcoin en esta nueva etapa de la Reserva Federal.

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen discusses the structural conflict between President Trump and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump wants home prices to stay high, while Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet — and "someone's going to be disappointed." Chris warns that resuming quantitative tightening could repeat the 2018 repo crisis, especially concerning given Morgan Stanley paid 45% for repo funding in Q4 2025. He breaks down the Penny Mac disaster, where Bill Pulte's $200 billion MBS buyback plan caused the stock to crash from $150 to $90 in a day, explaining why "when politicians play with markets, bad things happen." On housing, Chris argues there's no easy policy fix for affordability — prices simply need to fall 10-20% to normalize. He declares last year's speculation wave over, noting "we just ran out of runway," and advises investors to shift toward defensive positioning and stocks with cash flows. Chris remains bullish on gold and silver long-term despite recent pullbacks, urging viewers to buy the dips.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:13 Last year was a year of aspiration — reality is setting in 2:30 Gold and silver pullback — Chris is buying the dips 4:19 Speculative money rotating from crypto to metals (Hyperliquid) 5:00 Still bullish on gold and silver long-term 7:11 Kevin Warsh and the yield curve problem 8:20 Politicians can't control long-term rates — but they keep trying 9:43 Can Warsh shrink the balance sheet without breaking something?11:46 Trump vs. Warsh: Someone's going to be disappointed 13:23 Significant number of realtors didn't do deals last year 14:38 Housing consolidation and overcapacity 15:26 Is housing a leading or lagging indicator? 17:04 The only fix: Home prices need to fall 10-20% 19:36 The Penny Mac bombshell explained 21:40 "Our leaders are not serious people" 22:53 What would smart housing policy actually look like? 24:35 Theme for 2026: Risk off and defensive positioning 25:00 Preserving capital over speculation 26:21 "We just ran out of runway" — the end of the speculation wave  28:11 Viewer mail: Congress stuck between a rock and a hard place29:12 The two bad choices: Hyperinflation or less growth 31:14 Americans hate paying taxes — and seeing money wasted 32:20 Closing thoughts

#687: Your tax refund might be $300 to $1,000 bigger this year, and that's just the beginning of what's changing with your money. The Tax Foundation estimates most Americans will see significantly larger refunds thanks to seven major tax cuts. The child tax credit increased by $200. The standard deduction jumped by $750 for individuals or $1,500 for couples. The state and local tax deduction cap now sits at $40,000. Seniors get an extra $6,000 deduction, and deductions for auto loan interest, tips, and overtime work all increased. Retirement accounts saw major changes too. Catch-up contributions for high earners now must go into Roth accounts, which pushed thousands of employers to add Roth options to their 401k plans between 2024 and 2026. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair nominee, thinks the Federal Reserve has been doing it all wrong. The former Fed governor and Wall Street banker believes the Fed focuses too much on backward-looking data and reacts too slowly. He wants strategic, forward-thinking policy instead of chasing lagging indicators. President Trump clarified he never asked Warsh to lower interest rates and wanted to "keep it pure." The labor market shows serious cracks. Job openings dropped by nearly one million year over year to 6.5 million. Unemployment claims jumped to 231,000 last week. January layoffs hit 108,435 people — up 118 percent from last year and the worst January since 2009 during the Great Recession. Big Tech continues its massive AI spending spree. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle will collectively spend over $500 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Google's spending alone doubled from 2025, reaching up to $185 billion focused on data centers and Gemini development. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Crypto enters a full-blown pain market as Bitcoin, ETH, tech stocks, and even gold sell off together. Ryan and David break down why crowded trades are unwinding across markets, what the Warsh Fed chair pick means for rates and risk assets, and whether crypto has become uniquely fragile in this cycle. They dig into Vitalik's L2 pivot and what it signals about Ethereum's next era, unpack massive institutional paper losses at Strategy, BitMine, and Galaxy, and analyze Polymarket odds on where Bitcoin goes next. Plus: OGs selling to ETF buyers, the Clarity Act standoff between banks and crypto, and how to survive the psychology of a real bear market. ---

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rzbhrg In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by President Donald Trump. Bahnsen explores the implications of this decision on monetary policy, sharing his optimistic view of Warsh's potential impact. He delves into Warsh's background, his stance on key economic issues, and the anticipated effects of his policies on markets and investment strategies. Bahnsen underlines the significance of Warsh's experience, his reformist mindset, and how his pragmatic approach could lead to a reduction in the Federal Reserve's footprint in the economy. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:19 Kevin Warsh's Appointment as Fed Chair 03:42 Why Kevin Warsh is a Good Pick 05:06 Kevin Warsh's Monetary Policy Views 08:01 Implications for Interest Rates and QE 12:51 Market Signals and Fed Policy 18:19 Privatization of the Fed's Balance Sheet 24:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

- read nostr boosts - opensats https://opensats.org/blog/sixteenth-wave-of-bitcoin-grants + https://bitcoinerjobs.com/job/2147148-technical-writereditor-opensats - fed holds rates https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm - kevin warsh names as trump pick for fed chair https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/fed-chair-nominee-kevin-warsh-01-30-26 - Q4 2025 GDP Data Coming Feb 20 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0376 - ai + bitcoin + nostr https://x.com/bramk/status/2017365105550172374 https://clawi.ai https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsy7uk07j775ez52hfsvxnks2pt0h6n02m9hzm9a3v7n8ljf6eca3qs6h2fj https://x.com/suppvalen/status/2017241420554277251 https://clawstr.com/ https://primal.net/p/nprofile1qqsfzaahg24yf7kujwrzje8rwa7xmt359tf9zyyjeczc9dhll30k8pgmlfee2 - uae trump crypto scam https://x.com/tier10k/status/2017780627894898788 - spacex acquires xai which acquired x https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6vnrye06po 3:59 - Oops 15:24 - Dashboard 17:44 - Boosts 21:54 - Kyle is done 26:19 - OpenSats 34:59 - Warsh 41:59 - Epstein 1:07:49 - AI Agents 1:39:29 - HRF Story of the Week 1:41:19 - Trump UAE 1:41:24 - Elon 1:48:59 - More boosts Shoutout to our sponsors: Coinkite https://coinkite.com/ Stakwork https://stakwork.ai/ Obscura https://obscura.net/ Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/rhr Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/marty Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://tftc.io/podcasts/ Follow Odell: Nostr https://primal.net/odell Newsletter https://discreetlog.com/ Podcast https://citadeldispatch.com/

In this episode of Mining Stock Daily, Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics examines how the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair serves as a strategic move to stabilize federal debt and address years of balance sheet distortion,. Knapp provides a scathing critique of past Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, arguing they facilitated counterproductive fiscal policy and created a "K-shaped economy" by driving capital into stock buybacks rather than productive investment. The discussion delves into the fiscal theory of the price level, suggesting that inflation is rooted in government spending shocks and that the Fed must now work to privatize its balance sheet to restore market discipline. Listeners will gain insights into the structural shift in global capital, where the orderly decline of the dollar and China's move away from Treasuries are fueling a long-term secular bull market in gold. Finally, the conversation highlights the necessity of bank deregulation to increase the velocity of money, ensuring the financial system can fund the massive infrastructure requirements of AI and domestic manufacturing reshoring.This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by... Revival Gold is one of the largest pure gold mine developer operating in the United States. The Company is advancing the Mercur Gold Project in Utah and mine permitting preparations and ongoing exploration at the Beartrack-Arnett Gold Project located in Idaho. Revival Gold is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the ticker symbol “RVG” and trades on the OTCQX Market under the ticker symbol “RVLGF”. Learn more about the company at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠revival-dash-gold.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Vizsla Silver is focused on becoming one of the world's largest single-asset silver producers through the exploration and development of the 100% owned Panuco-Copala silver-gold district in Sinaloa, Mexico. The company consolidated this historic district in 2019 and has now completed over 325,000 meters of drilling. The company has the world's largest, undeveloped high-grade silver resource. Learn more at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://vizslasilvercorp.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Equinox has recently completed the business combination with Calibre Mining to create an Americas-focused diversified gold producer with a portfolio of mines in five countries, anchored by two high-profile, long-life Canadian gold mines, Greenstone and Valentine. Learn more about the business and its operations at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equinoxgold.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Integra Resources is a growing precious metals producer in the Great Basin of the Western United States. Integra is focused on demonstrating profitability and operational excellence at its principal operating asset, the Florida Canyon Mine, located in Nevada. In addition, Integra is committed to advancing its flagship development-stage heap leach projects: the past producing DeLamar Project located in southwestern Idaho, and the Nevada North Project located in western Nevada. Learn more about the business and their high industry standards over at integraresources.com

Newt talks with Thomas Hoenig, a former Federal Reserve official and Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center, about the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. President Trump’s decision has sparked discussion on Warsh's economic policies. Warsh, known for his hawkish views, is concerned about national debt and quantitative easing, which may lead to tighter policies than President Trump desires. Hoenig believes Warsh is a good choice due to his understanding of markets and fiscal policies, although he will face pressure to implement rate cuts. The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized, with Warsh expected to maintain a balance between being friendly to the President and upholding the Fed's independence. His nomination has influenced market behavior, with significant drops in gold and silver prices, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy under Warsh. The political landscape is also affected, with discussions on the potential challenges Warsh might face in the Senate confirmation process and the implications of ongoing legal cases involving Federal Reserve officials. The role of the Federal Reserve in the economy is highlighted, with its policies significantly impacting inflation, interest rates, and overall economic stability.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the path for U.S. interest rates after the nomination of Kevin Warsh for next Fed chair.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today we'll be talking about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that occurred last week.It's Thursday, February 5th at 8:30 am in New York.So, Mike, last week we had the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2026. What were your general impressions from the meeting? And how did it compare to what you had thought going in? Michael Gapen: Well, Matt, I think that the main question for markets was how hawkish a hold or how dovish a hold would this be. As you know, it was widely expected the Fed would be on hold. The incoming data had been fairly solid. Inflation wasn't all that concerning, and most of the employment data suggested things had stabilized. So, it was clear they were going to pause. The question was would they pause or would they be on pause, right? And in our view, it was more of a dovish hold. And by that, it suggests to us, or they suggested to us, I should say, that they still have an easing bias and rates should generally move lower over time. So, that really was the key takeaway for me. Would they signal a prolonged pause and perhaps suggest that they might be done with the easing cycle? Or would they say, yes, we've stopped for now, but we still expect to cut rates later? Perhaps when inflation comes down and therefore kind of retain a dovish bias or an easing bias in the policy rate path. So, to me, that was the main takeaway. Matthew Hornbach: Of course, as we all know, there are supposed to be some personnel changes on the committee this year. And Chair Powell was asked several questions to try to get at the future of this committee and what he himself was going to do personally. What was your impression of his response and what were the takeaways from that part of the press conference? Michael Gapen: Well, clearly, he's been reluctant to, say, pre-announce what he may do when his term is chair ends in May. But his term as a governor extends into 2028. So, he has options. He could leave normally that's what happens. But he could also stay and he's never really made his intentions clear on that part. I think for maybe personal or professional reasons. But he has his own; he has his own reasons and, and that's fine. And I do think the recent subpoena by the DOJ has changed the calculus in that. At least my own view is that it makes it more likely that he stays around. It may be easier for him to act in response to that subpoena by being on staff. It's a request for additional information; he needs access to that information. I think you could construct a reasonable scenario under which, ‘Well, I have to see this through, therefore, I may stay around.' But maybe he hasn't come to that conclusion yet. And then stepping back, that just complicates the whole picture in the sense that we now know the administration has put forward Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. Will he be replacing the seat that Jay Powell currently sits in? Will he be replacing the seat that Stephen Myron is sitting in? So yes, we have a new name being put forward, but it's not exactly clear where that slot will be; and what the composition of the committee will look like. Matthew Hornbach: Well, you beat me to the punch on mentioning Kevin Warsh… Michael Gapen: I kind of assumed that's where you were going. Matthew Hornbach: It was going to be my next question. I'm curious as to what you think that means for Fed policy later this year, if anything. And what it might mean more medium term? Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, first of all, congratulations to Mr. Warsh on the appointment. In terms of what we think it means for the outlook for the Fed's reaction function and interest rate policy, we doubt that there will be a material change in the Fed's reaction function. His previous public remarks don't suggest his views on interest rate policy are substantively outside the mainstream, or at least certainly the collective that's already in the FOMC. Some people would prefer not to ease. The majority of the committee still sees a couple more rate cuts ahead of them. Warsh is generally aligned with that, given his public remarks. But then also all the reserve bank presidents have been renominated. There's an ongoing Supreme Court case about the ability of the administration to fire Lisa Cook. If that is not successful, then Kevin Warsh will arrive in an FOMC where there's 16 other people who all get a say. So, the chair's primary responsibility is to build a consensus; to herd the cats, so to speak. To communicate to markets and communicate to the public. So, if Mr. Warsh wanted to deviate substantially from where the committee was, he would have to build a consensus to do that. So, we think, at least in the near term, the reaction function won't change. It'll be driven by the data, whether the labor market holds up, whether inflation, decelerates as expected. So, we don't look for material change. Now you also asked about the medium term. I do think where his views differ, at least with respect to current Fed policy is on the size of the Fed's balance sheet and its footprint in financial markets. So, he has argued over time for a much smaller balance sheet. He's called the Fed's balance sheet bloated. He has said that it creates distortions in markets, which mean interest rates could be higher than they otherwise would be. And so, I think if there is a substantive change in Fed policy going forward, it could be there on the balance sheet. But what I would just say on that is it'll likely take a lot of coordination with Treasury. It will likely take changes in rules, regulations, the supervisory landscape. Because if you want to reduce the balance sheet further without creating volatility in financial markets, you have to find a way to reduce bank demand for it. So, this will take time, it'll take study, it'll take patience. I wouldn't look for big material changes right out of the box. So Matt, what I'd like to do is, if I could flip it back to you, Warsh was certainly one of the expected candidates, right? So, his name is not a surprise. But as we knew financial markets, one day we're thinking it'd be one candidate. The next day it'd be thinking at the next it was somebody else. How did you see markets reacting to the announcement of Mr. Warsh? For the next Fed share, and then maybe put that in context of where markets were coming out of the last FOMC meeting. Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the markets that moved the most were not the traditional, very large macro markets like the interest rate marketplace or the foreign exchange market. The markets that moved the most were the prediction markets. These newer markets that offer investors the ability to wager on different outcomes for a whole variety of events around the world. But when it comes to the implications of a Kevin Warsh led Fed – for the bigger macro markets like interest rates and currencies, the question really comes down to how? If the Fed's balance sheet policies are going to take a while to implement, those are not going to have an immediate effect, at least not an effect that is easily seen with the human eye. But it's other types of policy change in terms of his communication policy, for example. One of the points that you raised in your recent note, Mike, was how Kevin Warsh favored less communication than perhaps some of the recent, Federal Open Market Committees had with the public. And so, if there is some kind of a retrenchment from the type of over-communication to the marketplace, from either committee members or non-voters that could create a bit more volatility in the marketplace. Of course, the Fed has been one of the central banks that does not like to surprise the markets in terms of its monetary policy making. And so, that contrasts with other central banks in the G10. For example, the Swiss National Bank tends to surprise quite a lot. The Reserve Bank of Australia tends to surprise markets. More often, certainly than the Fed does. So, to the extent that there's some change in communication strategy going forward that could lead to more volatile interest rate in currency markets. And that then could cause investors to demand more risk premium to invest in those markets. If you previously were comfortable owning a longer duration Treasury security because you felt very comfortable with the future path of Fed policy, then a Kevin Warsh led Fed – if it decides to change the communication strategy – could naturally lead investors to demand more risk premium in their investments. And that, of course, would lead to a steeper U.S. Treasury curve, all else equal. So that would be one of the main effects that I could see happen in markets as a result of some potential changes that the Fed may consider going forward. So, Mike, with that said, this was the first FOMC meeting of the year, and the next meeting arrives in March. I guess we'll just have to wait between now and then to see if the Fed is on hold for a longer period of time or whether or not the data convinced them to move as soon as the March meeting. Thanks for taking time to talk, Mike. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

A new Fed Chair has been nominated—and he could do what no Fed has done before. Kevin Warsh, the youngest Fed governor appointed, serving during the Great Financial Crisis, is Trump's new pick, and his decisions could have major impacts on the housing market. But the mainstream media is missing a few key variables, falsely assuming that Warsh will kick off a series of rate cuts that end in lower interest rates. But, in reality, something completely different could happen—something that the Fed has never tried before. Warsh has strong opinions on quantitative easing (money printing) and wants to, in essence, delete some of the money the Fed has created over years of buying bonds and mortgage-backed securities. At the same time, Warsh will most likely push for rate cuts—a challenge given the Fed's divided members. So, what does this mean for mortgage rates? Could we see rates actually rise due to Warsh's plans, or could ending quantitative easing boost market confidence and lower long-term mortgage rates? We're getting into it all, plus what investors should do now regardless of what the Fed's next moves are. In This Episode We Cover Trump's new Federal Reserve Chair pick and why Trump is so keen to kick Powell out Higher mortgage rates incoming? What everyone is getting wrong about the Warsh pick The end of money printing: Why the new Fed Chair pick wants to delete dollars off the balance sheet Something the Fed has never done before: Can you lower rates while keeping inflation in check? The one type of real estate that could greatly benefit from the moves Warsh will make And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE  Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders A New Fed Chairman is Coming Soon—Here's What Their Potential Low-Rate Policy Will Mean For Investors Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Grab Dave's Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers" Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-397 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Warsh, who President Donald Trump announced last week as his pick to become the next Federal Reserve chair, has an extensive background that has earned the respect of the financial world. He worked at Morgan Stanley, was a member of the Bush White House and is a Fed alum. He has spoken forcefully about the importance of the Fed's independence. But Trump has said that he wants loyalty. Playbook's Jack Blanchard and White House Bureau Chief Dasha Burns discuss how Warsh's past might be in conflict with his future post. Plus, the government is reopened — with a new shutdown countdown clock already ticking away.

WORST DAY EVER for SILVER Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop New Fed Chair named Pausing on space PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - WORST DAY EVER for SILVER - Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop - New Fed Chair named - Pausing on space Markets - Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter" - Deep dive into January economic results - USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead - ELON - PT Barnum move Cold Snap - On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923. - Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets - Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure. - They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip. - The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event. Right on Schedule - Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed? - Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high - Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike. THIS! - Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company's proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI  was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.” - “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.” Then Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out. - What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment? - Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment - GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK Fungus - -Interesting - Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity. - While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors. January Economic Review Employment — Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower. — Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago. — Long-term unemployment didn't change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%. — Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year. — Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year's levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply. FOMC / Interest Rates — The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. — Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target. — Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait. - Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike. - The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing. - Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place. - Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us. - Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase. - Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair) GDP & Federal Budget — Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs. — Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined. — The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year. Inflation & Consumer Spending — Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November. — Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year. — The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing. — Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024. Housing — Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low. — Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago. — New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year. — New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms. Manufacturing — Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year. — Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped. — Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries. Imports & Exports — Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025. — The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased. — For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger. Consumer Confidence — Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December. — Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk. Earnings — Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong. — 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%. — Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages. — The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. — Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services. — The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories. — The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns. — FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009. INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   S3XY No More - Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus). - Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are? - Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't? - Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing. But... - Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much. - With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly. - Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla - Tesla shares dropped after earnings FED CHAIR PICK - Drumroll: Kevin Warsh - Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability - Deficit reducer? - More hawkish than market expected? - Announce Friday after several leaks in the morning And then... - Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980. -It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record. - It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash. - The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh's nomination. - However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10% - GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record - Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago - ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK -- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely? Fed Statement and Rates - Fed out with statement - no change on rates - Changes: Inflation up, employment steady, economy strong - Does not bode for much in the way of cuts - probably on hold though end of Powell term Apple Earnings - Apple reported blowout first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and predicted growth of as much as 16% in the current quarter, matching the period that just ended. - Sales could be even better, Apple said, if the company just secure enough chips to meet its customers' iPhone demands. - The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period. - Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion. - “The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on, and at this time, we're seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said. - Stock up slightly - no great moves.... Blue Origin - Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” to prioritize development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies. - The decision reflects Blue Origin's commitment to the nation's goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence. - The pause in tourist flights grounds the company's reusable New Shepard rocket, which has sent more than 90 people to the edge of space and back to experience brief periods of weightlessness. - Datacenters on the Moon? (sounds like a Pink Floyd album)     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Hey Smarties! We recorded today's episode before the House passed a spending package that will end the partial government shutdown. We're monitoring the situation as it develops.President Trump has shown no signs of easing his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. But this could spell trouble for Trump's pick for Powell's successor, Kevin Warsh. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer joins Kimberly to explain. Plus, we'll get into what you should know about Warsh's history at the Fed and more of the latest news from the central bank.Here's everything we talked about today:"Trump's Political Drama With Powell Overshadows Fed Rate Decision" from The New York Times "What would Kevin Warsh bring to the Federal Reserve?" from Marketplace"Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, despite pressure from Trump" from Marketplace"Trump Needs an Off-Ramp for Powell Feud to Speed Warsh Into Fed" from Bloomberg"The economic headache that's coming for Kevin Warsh" from PoliticoWe love hearing from you. Leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART or email makemesmart@marketplace.org.

After months of speculation, Donald Trump has picked Kevin Warsh to run the Federal Reserve. Our correspondent explains what this means for America–and the world economy.  What matters more in Thailand's election: the will of the people or the power of the monarchy? And why Hong Kong's humble tram network could help keep tourism on track.Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—Subscribe to Economist Podcasts+For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After months of speculation, Donald Trump has picked Kevin Warsh to run the Federal Reserve. Our correspondent explains what this means for America–and the world economy.  What matters more in Thailand's election: the will of the people or the power of the monarchy? And why Hong Kong's humble tram network could help keep tourism on track.Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—Subscribe to Economist Podcasts+For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hey Smarties! We recorded today's episode before the House passed a spending package that will end the partial government shutdown. We're monitoring the situation as it develops.President Trump has shown no signs of easing his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. But this could spell trouble for Trump's pick for Powell's successor, Kevin Warsh. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer joins Kimberly to explain. Plus, we'll get into what you should know about Warsh's history at the Fed and more of the latest news from the central bank.Here's everything we talked about today:"Trump's Political Drama With Powell Overshadows Fed Rate Decision" from The New York Times "What would Kevin Warsh bring to the Federal Reserve?" from Marketplace"Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, despite pressure from Trump" from Marketplace"Trump Needs an Off-Ramp for Powell Feud to Speed Warsh Into Fed" from Bloomberg"The economic headache that's coming for Kevin Warsh" from PoliticoWe love hearing from you. Leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART or email makemesmart@marketplace.org.

On Friday, President Donald Trump announced his nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, choosing him to succeed current Chairman Jerome Powell when Powell's term expires in May 2026. The nomination will now go to the Senate for confirmation, where Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has vowed to block its advancement in the Senate Banking Committee until a Justice Department probe into Powell is resolved. Ad-free podcasts are here!To listen to this podcast ad-free, and to enjoy our subscriber only premium content, go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today's “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: What do you think of Warsh's nomination? Let us know.Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by: Will Kaback and audio edited and mixed by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Lindsey Knuth, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode of the Trading Justice Podcast breaks down the current market environment as stocks trade near critical technical levels. The Justice brothers analyze equities, index structure, and broader market momentum, focusing on support and resistance zones, consolidation patterns, and what traders should be watching ahead of upcoming catalysts. The conversation blends technical analysis, options market context, and trader psychology while keeping the discussion practical and approachable. The episode also highlights ongoing education, live trading events, and community resources available through Tackle Trading, making it a valuable listen for traders navigating range-bound and breakout-ready markets.

President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when Powell's term ends in May. We discuss Trump's efforts to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve and how that may impede Warsh's confirmation vote. This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe [CB] are trying to fight back, Trump continues to counter them by using tariffs. They will never learn. Blue states are feeling the economic pain, they are following the globalist plan and they will fail. Trump is changing the economic calculations. Inflation is below 1%. Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to restructure the Fed. The [DS] is panicking. They tried to trap Trump in the Epstein files, that did not work, the other part of the plan is to muddy the waters but this also failed. Trump is now preparing for mass round ups across the country. DHS is purchasing warehouses to hold the illegals. Trump is leading the [DS] down the path of no return. The insurrection is coming and Trump is preparing the counterinsurgency.   Economy   through this very same certification process. If, for any reason, this situation is not immediately corrected, I am going to charge Canada a 50% Tariff on any and all Aircraft sold into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/2016988052317409756?s=20   like he did in my First Term. I am confident that Brett has the expertise to QUICKLY fix the long history of issues at the BLS on behalf of the American People. Brett Matsumoto is a Brilliant, Reputable, and Trusted Economist who will restore GREATNESS to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Congratulations Brett! https://twitter.com/USTradeRep/status/2017747044350280104?s=20      extensive research in the field of Economics and Finance. Kevin issued an Independent Report to the Bank of England proposing reforms in the conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom. Parliament adopted the Report’s recommendations. Kevin Warsh became the youngest Fed Governor, ever, at 35, and served as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 until 2011, as the Federal Reserve’s Representative to the Group of Twenty (G-20), and as the Board’s Emissary to the Emerging and Advanced Economies in Asia. In addition, he was Administrative Governor, managing and overseeing the Board’s operations, personnel, and financial performance. Prior to his appointment to the Board, from 2002 until 2006, Kevin served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council. Previously, Kevin was a member of the Mergers & Acquisitions Department at Morgan Stanley & Co., in New York, serving as Vice President and Executive Director. I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is “central casting,” and he will never let you down. Congratulations Kevin! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP Warsh has compared Bitcoin favorably to gold as a “sustainable store of value,” indicating a positive view of gold’s role in the financial system.  However, his nomination led to sharp declines in gold and silver prices (e.g., silver fell up to 26% in one day), as markets interpreted him as an inflation hawk who might pursue tighter monetary policy, reducing the appeal of precious metals as inflation hedges.  This reaction stemmed from fears of less dovish Fed actions, which had previously driven gold’s rally amid uncertainty over Fed independence.  Warsh’s broader hawkish stance on inflation aligns with “hard money” principles that could indirectly support gold, but his emphasis on shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and normalizing policy suggests he prioritizes institutional reform over promoting gold as a standard. Is Kevin Warsh Pro-Sound Money?Yes, Warsh is a strong advocate for sound money principles, emphasizing disciplined, anti-inflationary monetary policy. He views inflation as a “monetary phenomenon” and “a choice” driven by excessive government printing and spending.  As a former Fed Governor, he was often the most hawkish voice, opposing aggressive rate cuts during crises due to inflation risks.  He criticizes the Fed’s “mission creep,” oversized balance sheet, and reliance on quantitative easing (QE), arguing these enable fiscal irresponsibility and distort markets. Warsh calls for “regime change” at the Fed, shifting away from Keynesian models toward rules-based policy that incorporates money supply considerations and reduces interventionism. He stresses credibility, clear rules, and accountability to maintain sound money.   In a 2025 Hoover Institution paper, he advocated scrutinizing monetary policy under a framework that could include constitutional measures for prosperity and idea diffusion. Warsh has been vocal against Powell’s leadership, echoing Trump’s frustrations with high interest rates and calling for “regime change” at the Fed. He has moderated his hawkish stance to support lower rates, arguing AI-driven productivity allows growth without inflation. Credibility and Market Reassurance: Warsh is seen as a “traditional” pick with Fed experience, reassuring investors amid fears of a loyalist appointment that could undermine independence. Trump highlighted Warsh’s ability to deliver lower rates and growth, though some economists note Warsh’s independence could lead to tensions if he prioritizes data over demands. Analysts suggest the pick balances Trump’s desire for cuts with a credible figure. Political/Rights https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/2017774819823984722?s=20 Trump Administration Begins Suing Illegal Migrants Who Have Not Self-Deported The Trump administration has begun suing individual illegal migrants for ignoring removal orders and refusing to self-deport back to their home countries, a report says. The administration has filed suit against an illegal migrant living in Virginia, and is seeking $941,114 plus interest, alleging that Marta Alicia Ramirez Veliz has remained in the country despite being told her request for admittance was rejected by a Justice Department appeals panel in 2022, Politico reported. The filing notes that Veliz has refused to pay a $998 per-day fine for the 943 days since she was told to return to her home country, and reveals that Immigration and Customs Enforcement sent her an official notice of her total fine in April. The lawsuit describes Veliz as “an individual and noncitizen residing in Chesterfield County, Virginia,” and does not identify her nationality. source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/2017404446230323358?s=20 BREAKING: Disturbing photos in the Epstein files appear to show Prince Andrew on all fours over a woman lying on the ground. https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/2017792445979791448?s=20   for everyone, or is connected through some opaque web of professional and personal ties. A supposedly random figure from the squalor of Uganda rises all the way to mayor of New York, only for it to later emerge that his mother is deeply embedded in elite circles. The same pattern shows up again and again. James Comey's daughter just happened to be a lead federal prosecutor on the Epstein case. The judge who presided over the trial of Hillary Clinton's lawyer, the one who helped seed the Russiagate hoax, is married to Lisa Page's lawyer. Page, of course, was involved with Peter Strzok, who is one of the central figures in that same hoax. And to complete the circle, Merrick Garland officiated their wedding. None of this requires conspiracy theories. It requires only acknowledging how small, closed, and self-protecting these elite worlds are. Fix elite incestuousness, and a lot of other problems will disappear on their own. https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/2017734119334232544?s=20 https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/2017474860700877105?s=20   https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/2017762585878069630?s=20 https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/2017694490614763591?s=20   written from Nikolic's perspective. At the time, Nikolic was Gates's top scientific investment advisor. The emails suggest Gates was firing Nikolic in response to marital problems with Melinda. In June 2013, Nikolic emailed Gates and asked if he wanted to go to the “legendary Crazy Horse in Paris” an erotic show, while they were in France. Gates declined, saying he would be too tired and didn't want to take the risk, adding that he might have done it when he was younger. On July 1, 2013, Gates emailed Nikolic: “We should meet on Wednesday to discuss your job. There is going to have to be a transition. I feel very bad about it but I don’t see a way around it.” Nikolic shared these emails with Epstein. Epstein later commented on the Paris erotic show email, writing: “This is pretty bad and might have been the cause of her bad mail in paris.”—apparently referring to Melinda. Nikolic appeared unhappy about being fired while potentially being used as a scapegoat, and he sought greater financial compensation as he prepared to leave and launch his own investment fund. In these emails, Epstein—writing as Nikolic—references alleged knowledge of Gates's extramarital affairs, STDs allegedly contracted from Russian women, and drug use as justification for why Nikolic deserved more money. Taken together, it appears Jeffrey Epstein was drafting or shaping a message for Boris Nikolic that effectively functioned as blackmail, pressuring Bill Gates for financial compensation. It remains unclear whether Nikolic ultimately sent these messages to Gates. However, later emails suggest Gates helped Nikolic launch his next investment fund and maintained a working relationship with him afterward. Epstein later listed Nikolic as a backup executor of his will, indicating the two were close confidants. https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/2017769194159210784?s=20 Billionaire Reid Hoffman, Who Bankrolled the E. Jean Carroll Lawsuit Against Trump, Is Featured Extensively in the New Epstein Files, Visiting Zorro Ranch and Pedophile Island  Hoffman went to the Island. A man who used his fortune to bankroll a lawsuit against President Donald J. Trump is now featured extensively in the new DOJ-released Jeffrey Epstein documents. The three and a half million documents from the latest – and apparently last – have been released by the DOJ following the approval of the House Resolution 4405, the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Documents from this massive release show the close ties between LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and the late pedophile. The pair ‘discusses visits to Epstein's infamous private island, his New Mexico ranch, and his New York apartment'. The New York Post reported: “'Reid will spend the night at 71st', according to one email from Hoffman's team included in the latest Justice Department dump of Epstein files, in reference to his Upper East Side townhouse.”   A 2014 memo states that Epstein hosted will have (venture capitalist) Joi Ito and Reid Hoffman on the infamous Zorro Ranch for a weekend. “An email Epstein penned to his assistant Saida Sapieva under the heading ‘Trip to the Island' states: ‘Reid will take a Virgin America Flight from SFO to Fort Lauderdale, departing at 8:20 am, landing at 4:40 pm'. In 2023, Hoffman visited to Epstein's former Caribbean private island, Little St. James, also known as ‘pedophile island', The Post previously reported.” Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2017106848311366064?s=20 https://twitter.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/2017789344103145647?s=20   https://twitter.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/2017772724093849926?s=20     https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2017930408650772495?s=20 https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/2017329765863039432?s=20       Israel had Trump by the balls so much that… Epstein was arrested? Ghislaine Maxwell was arrested? Jean Luc Brunel was arrested? Les Wexner stepped down? NXIVM sex cult ended? And now we're getting those files? These people don't think very hard https://twitter.com/JD_Cashless/status/2017349780922408973?s=20 https://twitter.com/TaraBunner2/status/2017619821634977889?s=20 https://twitter.com/Jordan_Sather_/status/2017399510809645263?s=20 https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/2017789280693735748?s=20 politically. “I didn't see it myself but I was told by some very important people that not only does it absolve me, it's the opposite of what people were hoping – you know, the radical left. Wolff, who's a 3rd rate writer, was conspiring with Jeffrey Epstein to hurt me politically or otherwise…” Don't fall for all the clickbait doomers pushing the anti-Trump narratives. It's all bullshit. Lots of people not looking good though after today's release. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. To muddy the waters is an idiom that means to make a situation, issue, or discussion more confusing, unclear, or complicated—often deliberately. For example: “The politician’s vague statements only muddied the waters during the debate.” It originates from the idea of stirring up mud in water, making it murky and hard to see through. DOGE Geopolitical War/Peace Iran Hits Back At EU: Designates European Armies As ‘Terrorist Entities’ Iran is saying two can play at the West’s game: on Friday the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council blasted the EU’s decision to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist organization,” warning that Europe’s own militaries would now be viewed through the same lens. “The European Union certainly knows that… the armies of countries that have participated in the European Union’s recent resolution against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are considered terrorist entities,” Ali Larijani wrote in a post on X. He added bluntly: “Therefore, the consequences of that shall be borne by the European countries that undertook such an action.” However, there’s probably nothing in the way of European military assets for the Islamic Republic to sanction, so this ‘action’ by Tehran will remain largely symbolic. Iran does have assets held in various places of Europe though. EU foreign ministers agreed on Thursday to formally classify the IRGC as a “terrorist organization” and urged member states to implement the designation without delay – after a few longtime holdouts flipped. source: zerohedge.com [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/rhodeislander/status/2017361344018739231?s=20 https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/2017331445195211254?s=20   at Place of Worship COUNT 2: 18 U.S.C. § 248(a) (b), § §2(a) – FACE Act: Injure, Intimidate, and Interfere with Exercise of Right of Religious Freedom at a Place of Worship. Full indictment in replies. https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2017755569097003394?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/2017426372860190991?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2017426372860190991%7Ctwgr%5Efafd5c6b893c0c4815868b0fd8490482712f780e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Ft%2Fassets%2Fhtml%2Ftweet-5.html2017426372860190991 Maxine Waters Incites Violent Leftist Rioters in Los Angeles – Threatens ICE, “We're Going to Fight You Every Inch of the Way” (VIDEOS) Far-left Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) was in Los Angeles on Friday, inciting her radical left followers to riot against law enforcement before several were arrested.  Rioters were seen hurling objects at shielded federal agents who pushed back with pepper balls and nonlethal munitions. Via ABC 7: Anti-ICE Rioters Clash with Federal Agents and Local Police Outside Los Angeles ICE Facility Eventually, the rioters moved a dumpster toward the entrance of the ICE detention facility and set it ablaze. Over 100 Los Angeles Police officers reportedly responded in riot gear to quell the violence. Multiple videos circulating on social media show Maxine Waters at the front lines of the riot as leftists were told to disperse for surrounding the federal building, trespassing on federal property, and later assaulting federal officers. After pepper spray was deployed, Waters returned to the front of the riot with a mask and continued leading the insurrection. Waters was seen pulling up to the scene early in the day in a black SUV before stepping out to rally her troops, flailing her arms and leading chants of “ICE Out of LA.” Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/DOGEai_tx/status/2017736355665641700?s=20   Martinez's gang alliance pitch isn't just reckless; it's a calculated distraction from ICE's indiscriminate sweeps that tear families apart over paperwork. Federal law requires deportation for specific crimes, yet bureaucrats weaponize broad mandates to meet quotas. The solution? Enforce existing laws precisely, stop manufacturing crises, and end the performative politics that put both officers and communities at risk. President Trump's Plan https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2017769322723082564?s=20   constitutional dike, It is so ORDERED” – “Feb. 31” doesn’t exist – LinkedIn shows he liked a TDS post about ICE today – Includes a photo of the kid in the order – Unprofessionally antagonistic language WTF?! This is a JUDGE?! @ElonMusk and @NayibBukele were right all along. We can’t have a saved republic until we mass impeach the courts. H/t @BillMelugin_ https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2017574838143959310?s=20 https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/2017636699157811696?s=20       one of the safest cities in America – Likewise, numerous other once very dangerous cities! Republicans, don't let these Crooked Democrats, who are stealing Billions of Dollars from Minnesota, and other Cities and States from all over the Country, push you around. They are using this aggressive protest SCAM to obfuscate, camouflage, and hide their CRIMINAL ACTS of theft and insurrection. They should all be in jail. I was elected on Strong Borders, and Law and Order, among many other things. Thank you to Secretary Kristi Noem. Remember, ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP     Federal Government Property. There will be no spitting in the faces of our Officers, there will be no punching or kicking the headlights of our cars, and there will be no rock or brick throwing at our vehicles, or at our Patriot Warriors. If there is, those people will suffer an equal, or more, consequence. In the meantime, by copy of this Statement, I am informing Local Governments, as I did in Los Angeles when they were rioting at the end of the Biden Term, that you must protect your own State and Local Property. In addition, it is your obligation to also protect our Federal Property, Buildings, Parks, and everything else. We are there to protect Federal Property, only as a back up, in that it is Local and State Responsibility to do so. Last night in Eugene, Oregon, these criminals broke into a Federal Building, and did great damage, also scaring and harassing the hardworking employees. Local Police did nothing in order to stop it. We will not let that happen anymore! If Local Governments are unable to handle the Insurrectionists, Agitators, and Anarchists, we will immediately go to the location where such help is requested, and take care of the situation very easily and methodically, just as we did the Los Angeles Riots one year ago, where the Police Chief said that, “We couldn't have done it without the help of the Federal Government.” Therefore, to all complaining Local Governments, Governors, and Mayors, let us know when you are ready, and we will be there — But, before we do so, you must use the word, “PLEASE.” Remember that I stated, in the strongest of language, to BEWARE — ICE, Border Patrol or, if necessary, our Military, will be extremely powerful and tough in the protection of our Federal Property. We will not allow our Courthouses, Federal Buildings, or anything else under our protection, to be damaged in any way, shape, or form. I was elected on a Policy of Border Control (which has now been perfected!), National Security, and LAW AND ORDER — That's what America wants, and that's what America is getting! Thank you for your attention to this matter.   PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP he will use DHS/ICE and, if necessary, the US MIL to protect federal property. It sounds like Trump knows something is coming. It sounds like the Dems want DHS/ICE to get caught up in policing these riots, hoping more of their deranged followers take it too far and get shot. Trump is instead going to hold and force local Democrat politicians to police their own riots, or agree to work with him. And if the Dems choose to not police these riots, they will force Trump to use the US MIL to suppress the chaos.  https://twitter.com/unseen1_unseen/status/2017334056292143173?s=20 https://twitter.com/StephenM/status/2017585812599087241?s=20   EXCLUSIVE: Atlanta Field Office Special Agent in Charge Allegedly Removed For Slow-Walking Election Fraud Investigation  Reports are emerging on social media that Paul Brown, the FBI Special Agent in Charge at the Atlanta Field Office, was “forced out of that job earlier this month,” according to MSNOW's Ken Dilanian. According to MSNOW, Brown “was forced out this month after questioning the Justice Department's renewed push to probe Fulton County's role in the 2020 election” after “expressing concern” about “unsubstantiated allegations of voter fraud” in Fulton County. Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/2017632517596045581?s=20      of evidence that the judge authorized us to collect. And what we're gonna do next is go through the voluminous amounts of information collected and continue our investigation. At this point there's not much more I can say publicly because we have to go through a lot more material. But it was predicated on a finding of probable cause by a judge in Georgia.” Time for people to go to jail! We all watched it stolen in real time, and we're all still pissed off about it! https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/2017201516768026738?s=20  the election safe, and she's done a very good job. And as you know, they got into the votes. You've got a signed judges order in Georgia and you're gonna see some interesting things happening.” We've waited a long time for this. Let's get it. https://twitter.com/JoeLang51440671/status/2017668286196932654?s=20 https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/2017631484908024035?s=20     (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses how the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed could move markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast: The implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair. It's Monday, February 2nd at 10 am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last Friday, President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Chair of the Fed. The prevailing narrative around Warsh is fairly straightforward: he's seen as more hawkish on the size of the Fed's balance sheet, potentially more flexible on interest rates, and less comfortable with open-ended liquidity support than the current leadership. That characterization is fair, but it doesn't answer the more important question—why pick Warsh now, and what problem is this nomination trying to solve?In my view, the answer starts with markets, not politics. Over the past several months, we've witnessed parabolic moves in precious metals alongside persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar. While this administration has been very clear that a weaker dollar is not inherently a bad thing—especially as part of a broader economic rebalancing strategy—there's an important distinction between a controlled decline and a disorderly one.To understand why this matters so much, you need to zoom out. The administration is attempting to rebalance the U.S. economy across three dimensions simultaneously, all with the same ultimate goal—growing out of an enormous debt burden that's been building for more than two decades. At this point, simply cutting spending isn't realistic, economically or politically. Nominal growth is the only viable path forward.The current strategy is more supply side driven. It focuses on rebalancing trade through tariffs and a weaker dollar, shifting the economy away from over-consumption and toward investment, and addressing inequality through immigration enforcement and deregulation. The goal is to let companies—not the government—make capital allocation decisions, while boosting income through wages rather than entitlements. If it works, the result should be higher nominal growth with a healthier mix of real growth driven by productivity.Markets, to some extent, have already started to price this in. Since last spring, cyclical stocks have outperformed, market breadth has improved, and leadership has begun to rotate away from the mega-cap names that dominated the last cycle. Small and mid-cap stocks are working again too. That's exactly what you'd expect in the middle stages of a ‘hotter but shorter' expansion, my core view. At the same time, the surge in gold tells us something else is going on. Precious metals don't move like that unless investors are questioning the endgame.That's where Kevin Warsh comes in. His nomination appears designed to restore credibility around the balance sheet and slow the momentum of that skepticism. Based on Friday's price action, it worked. Gold and silver sold off sharply, the dollar strengthened modestly, and equities and rates stayed relatively stable. That combination buys time—and time is exactly what this strategy needs to work.One of the best ways to track whether markets are buying into this story is by watching the ratio of the S&P 500 to gold. It's a simple but powerful proxy for confidence in productive growth. The recent collapse was driven mostly by gold rising—and Friday's sharp reversal was mainly gold prices falling, one of the largest on record.That doesn't mean skepticism has been eliminated. Instead, it tells me the administration is paying attention and understands they need to restore confidence. If the ratio continues to recover, it will likely come first through lower gold prices and tighter liquidity expectations, and later through stronger earnings growth driven by productivity gains. That could mean near term risk for other risk assets, including equities. Bottom line, the current ‘run it hot' approach has a better chance of delivering sustainable growth than prior policy mixes—but it won't be smooth, and confidence will ebb and flow along the way. Watching how markets respond, especially through signals like gold, the dollar, and capital spending trends, will tell us whether this strategy ultimately succeeds. My view is that it's the best approach which keeps me bullish on 2026 even if the near term is more rocky.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!