Podcasts about Warsh

  • 619PODCASTS
  • 1,508EPISODES
  • 29mAVG DURATION
  • 6DAILY NEW EPISODES
  • Sep 17, 2026LATEST
Warsh

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Best podcasts about Warsh

Latest podcast episodes about Warsh

Pat Gray Unleashed
84 Years Old, 90 Days Out, and a Senator Still Coached His Vote | 9/17/26

Pat Gray Unleashed

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 100:49


A GOP senator leaned over and told Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) how to vote. The clerk still couldn't hear him. This is day three back for an 84-year-old senator after more than 90 days away — a fall, pneumonia, two months in the hospital, and a wheelchair through the Capitol. The Senate Agriculture Committee had already stalled the farm bill without him. On Wednesday, they needed that vote. So they brought him in, called his name, and the country watched Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) lean in with “no” while McConnell quietly said “aye,” then had to say it again louder because nobody caught it the first time. The bill cleared 12-11, party lines. The question is why Republicans keep pretending this is just a tough recovery and not a fitness problem. If a Democrat this frail needed a neighbor to coach a roll call, this network would not be told to look away. Farm policy, nutrition fights, and a chamber that already runs on people who should have gone home years ago — and the party of “common sense” wheels a man in because the math is 12-11. Pat also covered: The last pennies ever minted just sold at auction for $16.7 million. We killed the coin, then collectors paid a fortune for the funeral. The Fed just hiked rates for the first time since 2023 — a quarter point, to 3.75%–4%. Warsh did it unanimously. Is America ready for a gay president? Not as a slogan. As an actual ticket. The Wachowski brothers are now the Wachowski sisters. Hollywood called it progress. Everybody else called it a pattern. James Talarico's own minister, Rev. Babs Miller, got caught on camera saying the makeover is a lie.   Should a senator who has to be walked through a committee vote still be holding that seat? If this were the other party, would you still be told to show respect and move on? If you want unfiltered truth and commonsense analysis that cuts through the noise, hit subscribe and turn on notifications. 00:00 Pat Gray UNLEASHED! 01:43 Mitch McConnell was Late to Congress 03:53 Mitch McConnell is DIALED IN!!! 04:15 Mitch McConnell Struggles to Vote for Farm Bill 06:52 Too Many Old People in Congress 10:00 Karl Rove to Vote for Any Democrat over Bo French 13:15 Trump on Raising Interest Rates 15:27 Talking about Kings 17:20 Trump at North Carolina Rally 19:00 No Atlantic Hurricanes in Sight 23:40 Kamala Harris Wants You Registered to Vote 25:14 Pete Buttigieg on Potentially Being the First Gay U.S. President 31:23 Fat Five 50:27 The Craziness of the Wachowskis 55:15 James Talarico VS. Tom Oliverson 1:00:16 James Talarico's Pastor has some Interesting Things to Say 1:07:20 James Talarico & Drag Queens 1:10:44 Jelly Roll Leaving the Music Industry? 1:12:09 Confrontation between Reporter & Ilhan Omar 1:17:55 Layne Lundeen Doesn't Remember his American Airlines Rampage 1:20:52 Woman Arrested for Complaining about City's Drinking Water 1:24:44 AI-Generated Video of Jeff Fisher 1:27:13 Interview with AI Actress Tilly Norwood 1:30:28 AI Rabbit Hole Conspiracy Theory from Andrei Jikh Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Journal.
Inflation Forces the Fed's Hand

The Journal.

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 21:03


Red, White and Who is back! Email us at thejournal@wsj.com with your thoughts on the economy as we head into the midterms.  For the first time in three years, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. Chairman Kevin Warsh was appointed by President Trump, who explicitly hoped he'd keep rates low. But the economy doesn't appear to be heading in the right direction and inflation has proven to be far stickier than anticipated. WSJ's Nick Timiraos reports on why Warsh took a hawkish turn and explains why the Fed might not be done yet. Ryan Knutson hosts.  Further Listening: -How the Bond Market Will Affect Your Wallet - Who Is the New Fed Chair? Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Economist Podcasts
Rise and shine: Warsh's Fed rate test

Economist Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 21:54


The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023. For the central bank's new chair Kevin Warsh, that decision was a test both of monetary policy and politics. A governor's election in Okinawa is a boon to Japan's military ambitions. And why summer is a casualty of climate change.Guests and host:Archie Hall, acting economics editorMoeka Iida, East Asia reporterAndrew Miller, special correspondentRosie Blau, co-host of “The Intelligence”Topics covered: Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, interest rates, inflationOkinawa, JapanSummer, climate change, heatwaveListen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to The Economist. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

WSJ What’s News
Trump Says He Talked to Warsh. What Does That Mean for Fed Independence?

WSJ What’s News

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 13:15


P.M. Edition for Sept. 17. Yesterday's interest rate increase from the Fed seemed to some like an assertion of the central bank's independence. But afterward President Trump revealed that he and Warsh had a conversation before the decision was announced. WSJ Washington bureau chief Damian Paletta discusses what we know and what this could mean for the future of the Fed. Plus, House Speaker Mike Johnson sent lawmakers home early this week ahead of the November election, despite criticism that Congress isn't doing its job. We hear from Journal reporter Maya Davis about what the data show about how much Congress is getting done. And Mastercard becomes the latest credit card company to roll out the option for AI bots to do your everyday shopping. But, as reporter Ben Glickman notes, many consumers aren't yet ready to hand over their cards to a bot. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

WSJ What’s News
Global Markets Shake Off Rate-Hike Jitters

WSJ What’s News

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 14:15


A.M. Edition for Sept. 17. Stock markets are gaining on renewed investor confidence in the Fed being ready and able to tackle higher inflation, despite President Trump's rebuke of yesterday's rate hike. Plus, Congress backs new measures to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. And Canada's prime minister takes a swipe at Washington, as he welcomes the EU's offer of an “alliance for the future.” Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Intelligence
Rise and shine: Warsh's Fed rate test

The Intelligence

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 21:54


The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023. For the central bank's new chair Kevin Warsh, that decision was a test both of monetary policy and politics. A governor's election in Okinawa is a boon to Japan's military ambitions. And why summer is a casualty of climate change.Guests and host:Archie Hall, acting economics editorMoeka Iida, East Asia reporterAndrew Miller, special correspondentRosie Blau, co-host of “The Intelligence”Topics covered: Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, interest rates, inflationOkinawa, JapanSummer, climate change, heatwaveListen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to The Economist. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mock and Daisy's Common Sense Cast
NYC's $4M Bathroom Mess, Bernie's AI Rage, Candace's Latest TPUSA Rant & Trump vs. the Fed

Mock and Daisy's Common Sense Cast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 98:40 Transcription Available


From Trump's reaction to the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike to Bernie Sanders sounding the alarm over artificial intelligence, today's show is packed. We break down the latest polling heading into the midterms, the tightening Florida governor's race, Abdul El-Sayed's campaign against Mike Rogers, and undercover political videos making waves online.The latest NYT/Siena national poll found Democrats ahead on several issue-trust questions, while AI was essentially split between the parties. Then things get even stranger: NYC's multimillion-dollar bathroom controversy, Bernie Sanders calling for consequences for AI developers, JD Vance weighing in on the risks of AI, and Andrew Yang warning about self-replicating AI bots. Plus, we get into the latest Macklemore and Ed Sheeran controversy, a New York Times Israel-related editing dispute, the upcoming Lindsay and Patrick Clancy 60 Minutes interview, the Charlie Kirk/UVU lawsuit, and Candace Owens' latest comments about TPUSA. And because we can't end without some chaos: a viral J-Lo lookalike mugshot, Tom Cruise's GQ cover, an unbelievable near-miss caught on camera, a heartwarming 911 birthday call, and plenty more.SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS TO SUPPORT OUR SHOW!Lose meaningful weight and keep it off. Get started with 20% Off and Free Rush Shipping at https://TakeLean.com with promo code CHICKSTreat yourself to the most advanced bras and shapewear on the market from Honeylove. Save 20% off at https://HoneyLove.com/ChicksOne thing to pack, five ways to power! Get your Ridge Power Bank at https://Ridge.com/Chicks and save 10% using code CHICKS at checkout.Save an additional 10% off practical food for your pantry with the ReadyWise 4-Can Protein Bundle at https://ReadyWise.com with code CHICKS10.Subscribe and stay tuned for new episodes every weekday!Follow us here for more daily clips, updates, and commentary:YoutubeFacebookInstagramTikTokXLocalsMore InfoWebsite

Saxo Market Call
Warsh hawkish, but market quick to reverse. Now comes BoJ.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 14:56


Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US dollar? This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Meta's Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown, prefers "evaluators" DeepQuarry questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability (first portion of post available for free) Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The Julia La Roche Show
#409 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Is Hiking Into Recession, Consumers Tapped Out, & Credit Tightening

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 34:32


Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:    Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative"10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back?25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E31:40 What's making her optimistic33:25 Wrap-up

TD Ameritrade Network
Walser: Fed's 2% Inflation Goal "Will Never Happen" Due to AI "Capital Wars"

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 8:37


"Warsh really had to do what he was expected to do," says Rebecca Walser on the Fed's decision to hike interest rates by 25 bps. She says the FOMC's goal to reach 2% inflation "will never happen" due to AI hyperscaler CapEx ballooning, making the argument the committee needs a new benchmark. Rebecca explains how she sees the AI "capital wars" playing out in the years to come as Anthropic and OpenAI raise safety warnings. That said, she believes investors need to stay invested in AI-tied stocks. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

TD Ameritrade Network
Fed's Rate Hike Sets Up "Tough" October Meeting Amid Equity, Yield Volatility

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 9:01


Jason England believes the 25 bps interest rate hike from the Fed's September meeting is warranted given the FOMC's prior 75 bps worth of cuts. He believes this hike gives Fed Chair Kevin Warsh some slack to reclaim the committee's 2% inflation target. That said, Jason says the Fed funds rate is much higher than it should be. He weighs on how lasting volatility will continue to hit equities and bonds alike as Warsh and company weigh a "tough" tentative rate hike in October. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Andrea Kaye Show
FED CHAIR WARSH RAISES INTEREST RATES! WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR YOUR POCKETBOOK? / FIRST THE HOMELESS MONEY—NOW HIGH-SPEED RAIL! WAIT TILL YOU HEAR WHAT CALIFORNIA TAXPAYERS PAID FOR / DID TALARICO'S PAC BUY VOTES? WHAT WAS REVEALED IN BOMBSHELL UNDERCOVE

Andrea Kaye Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 113:06


WARSH HIKES RATES TO FIGHT INFLATION—BUT WILL AMERICANS PAY THE PRICE? Your mortgage, credit cards, car loans—what happens now? What are the benefits of a rate hike? What was Trump’s reaction? ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER CALIFORNIA MONEY SCANDAL! HOMELESS FUNDS, HIGH-SPEED RAIL—WHERE ARE YOUR TAX DOLLARS GOING? California’s homelessness money trail: where did the millions really go? Luxury trips, real estate, and a nightclub?! California’s High speed rail project leads to nothing but overspending. Uber rides, trips to sushi restaurants in Denver, nightclubs, and escape rooms? DID TALARICO’S PAC BUY VOTES? “A roundabout way of paying people for their votes”? The Talarico PAC video everyone’s talking about. 239 YEARS LATER: THE CONSTITUTION ENDURES—BUT WHY DOES THE DSA WANT TO REWRITE THE SYSTEM? Preserve it or replace it? Inside the DSA’s plan for a new political system. With Zack Smith, Heritage Foundation.Support Our Mission: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=ZMGRBFGDJKRS8See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wintrust Business Lunch
Noon Business Lunch 9/17/26: Warsh's hawkish tone, inflation persistent, elevated oil prices, International Manufacturing Technology Show

Wintrust Business Lunch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026


Segment 1: Michelle Edmonson, Vice President of Exhibitions for AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology and lead for the IMTS – International Manufacturing Technology Show brands, joins Jon to talk about how the show has been going so far this week, what she’s most proud of so far, what you will see if you visit, some […]

Isaiah's Newsstand
California, Turkey, & Warsh

Isaiah's Newsstand

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 29:09


(9.9.2026-9.16.2026) Rates are on the rise. Tune in.#applepodcasts⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠#spotifypodcasts⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠#youtube #amazon⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠#patreon⁠⁠⁠patreon.com/isaiahnews

En Blanco y Negro con Sandra
JUEVES, 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2026: Golpe al bolsillo en Puerto Rico, desaceleración económica y tensión geopolítica internacional

En Blanco y Negro con Sandra

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 46:16


1. Rivera Schatz dice que Miss Universe será “el próximo Power Expectations” para La Fortaleza2. Presidente del Senado presenta resultados positivos de proyecto para el bienestar emocional de estudiantes en escuelas públicas3. Factura de luz podría aumentar unos $48 mensuales desde octubre según presidenta de LUMA4. Junta exige definir el futuro del contrato de generación con Gothams Energy5. La industria aeroespacial despega en Puerto Rico, pero enfrenta turbulencias por la fuga de talento.6. Cámara de Comercio reclama en Washington medidas sobre energía, salud y vivienda7. Alcalde de Cidra pide frenar posible desconexión de LUMA por disputa de $319,2168. Junta de Planificación reduce proyecciones de crecimiento económico para 2026 y 20279. La Reserva Federal sube los tipos un cuarto de punto en la primera medida de la era Warsh.10. Lavrov: "Si Europa ataca a Rusia, será una guerra muy corta"11. El hermano de Lady Di revela en sus memorias lo que Carlos III le dijo tras su muerte: “Puedes estar seguro de que pronto la olvidaremos”Este es un programa independiente y sindicalizado. Esto significa que este programa se produce de manera independiente, pero se transmite de manera sindicalizada, o sea, por las emisoras y cadenas de radio que son más fuertes en sus respectivas regiones. También se transmite por sus plataformas digitales, aplicaciones para dispositivos móviles y redes sociales. Estas emisoras de radio son:1. Cadena WIAC - WYAC 930 AM Cabo Rojo- Mayagüez2. Cadena WIAC – WISA 1390 AM Isabela3. Cadena WIAC – WIAC 740 AM Área norte y zona metropolitana4. X61 – 610 AM en Patillas5. X61 – 94.3 FM Patillas y todo el sureste6. WPAB 550 AM - Ponce7. ECO 93.1 FM – En todo Puerto Rico8. WLRP 1460 AM Radio Raíces La voz del Pepino en San Sebastián9. WOQI 1020 AM – Radio Casa Pueblo desde Adjuntas 10. Mundo Latino PR.com, la emisora web de música tropical y comentarioUna vez sale del aire, el programa queda grabado y está disponible en las plataformas de podcasts tales como Spotify, Soundcloud, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts y otras plataformas https://anchor.fm/sandrarodriguezcottoTambién nos pueden seguir en:REDES SOCIALES: Facebook, X (Twitter), Instagram, Threads, LinkedIn, Tumblr, TikTokBLOG: En Blanco y Negro con Sandra http://enblancoynegromedia.blogspot.comSUSCRIPCIÓN: Substack, plataforma de suscripción de prensa independientehttps://substack.com/@sandrarodriguezcottoOTROS MEDIOS DIGITALES: ¡Ey! Boricua, Revista Seguros. Revista Crónicas y otrosEstas son algunas de las noticias que tenemos hoy En Blanco y Negro con Sandra.

VOV - Việt Nam và Thế giới
Tin thế giới - Fed lần đầu tăng lãi suất kể từ năm 2023

VOV - Việt Nam và Thế giới

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 1:49


VOV1 - Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ, Fed, ngày 16/9 quyết định tăng lãi suất thêm 0,25 điểm phần trăm, lần tăng đầu tiên kể từ năm 2023, trong bối cảnh lạm phát tại Mỹ tăng trở lại do giá năng lượng và những bất ổn địa chính trị.Sau quyết định này, lãi suất tham chiếu của Fed được nâng lên mức 3,75% đến 4%. Quyết định được toàn bộ 12 thành viên Ủy ban Thị trường Mở Liên bang nhất trí phát tín hiệu rằng có thể sẽ có thêm một đợt tăng lãi suất nữa trước cuối năm nay.Trong tuyên bố sau cuộc họp kéo dài hai ngày, Fed cho biết lạm phát vẫn ở mức cao, trong khi những bất ổn đối với triển vọng kinh tế tiếp tục gia tăng, một phần do các diễn biến địa chính trị. Fed nhấn mạnh việc tăng lãi suất nhằm đưa lạm phát trở lại mục tiêu 2% một cách nhanh hơn.Phát biểu tại cuộc họp báo sau đó, Chủ tịch Fed Kevin Warsh cho rằng lạm phát tại Mỹ đã ở mức quá cao trong thời gian quá dài và ổn định giá cả là “nền tảng cho tăng trưởng kinh tế”. Theo ông Warsh, quyết định tăng lãi suất là một bước quan trọng để đạt được mục tiêu này, thông qua việc rút bớt mức độ hỗ trợ của chính sách tiền tệ đối với nền kinh tế.Các dự báo kinh tế mới được công bố cùng ngày cho thấy phần lớn các quan chức Fed dự kiến sẽ có thêm một đợt tăng lãi suất trước cuối năm nay. Điều này cho thấy quyết định ngày 16/9 có thể chưa phải là bước thắt chặt chính sách tiền tệ cuối cùng trong năm 2026.Một trong những nguyên nhân khiến Fed thay đổi chính sách là áp lực giá cả gia tăng kể từ khi chiến tranh với Iran bùng phát cuối tháng 2. Giá dầu và nhiên liệu tăng mạnh đã góp phần đẩy lạm phát của Mỹ lên 3,4% trong tháng 8.Ông Warsh thừa nhận Fed không thể trực tiếp làm giảm giá dầu hay giá thực phẩm. Tuy nhiên, ngân hàng trung ương Mỹ có thể sử dụng chính sách tiền tệ để ngăn việc giá năng lượng và các mặt hàng khác tăng lan rộng sang toàn bộ nền kinh tế.Quyết định tăng lãi suất cũng đi ngược lại mong muốn của Tổng thống Donald Trump, người nhiều lần công khai kêu gọi Fed giảm chi phí vay. Ông Warsh, người được Tổng thống Trump đề cử vào vị trí lãnh đạo Fed, mới đảm nhiệm chức vụ này chưa đầy 4 tháng.Thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ giảm sau phát biểu của Chủ tịch Fed. Chỉ số S&P 500 mất khoảng 0,5%, Nasdaq giảm 0,2%, trong khi Dow Jones có thời điểm giảm gần 700 điểm./. VOV MỹFed tăng lãi suất lần đầu tiên sau 3 năm

Wall Street Unplugged - What's Really Moving These Markets
The market is facing the perfect storm

Wall Street Unplugged - What's Really Moving These Markets

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2026 57:16


The perfect storm to push stocks lower. Plus, how Warsh can help ease market fears… Why hyperscalers need to slow AI spending… JB Hunt (JBHT) just sounded the alarm on energy prices… And why did the Clarity Act fail? In this episode: Fantasy football is off to a rough start [0:52] What Warsh should do to help ease market fears [5:45] The perfect storm to push stocks lower [13:30] Why hyperscalers need to slow AI spending [15:48] JB Hunt just sounded the alarm on energy prices [19:06] Does anyone actually believe this "Big AI" lie? [28:17] Food prices are about to surge again [39:15] Why did the Clarity Act fail? [44:03] The midterms look like a layup for Democrats [50:57] Did you like this episode? Get more Wall Street Unplugged FREE each week in your inbox. Sign up here: https://curzio.me/syn_wsu Find Wall Street Unplugged podcast… --Curzio Research App: https://curzio.me/syn_app --iTunes: https://curzio.me/syn_wsu_i --Stitcher: https://curzio.me/syn_wsu_s --Website: https://curzio.me/syn_wsu_cat Follow Frank… X: https://curzio.me/syn_twt Facebook: https://curzio.me/syn_fb LinkedIn: https://curzio.me/syn_li

Closing Bell
Closing Bell Overtime: Fed Cut, Warsh's Presser Sends Stocks Lower 9/16/26

Closing Bell

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2026 43:32


Investors parse the Fed's latest decision and what it means for the path ahead as stocks fell sharply during Kevin Warsh's press conference. Paulsen Perspectives' Jim Paulsen breaks down the market reaction while Janney Montgomery Scott's Guy LeBas explains what the decision means for bonds and rates. Bank of America's Ken Hoexter looks at transports and the impact of diesel prices on the sector as those names come under pressure. Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Marc Giannoni weighs whether the economy needs a rate hike. ON Semiconductor CEO Hassane El-Khoury discusses AI slowdown fears, the state of the semiconductor cycle and what he's telling investors. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Julia La Roche Show
#408 Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2026 62:22


Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. He warns that the market has "crossed over to the hard side of the street." With the Shiller CAPE above 42, he says history points to negative real returns for the next decade. Cracks are already showing in AI-related credit, where junk bonds and bank loans have widened sharply while the rest of high yield holds up. Gundlach says he now wants out of the AI "epicenter" entirely. He walks through his current portfolio: equal-weight equities, a barbell of high-quality bonds and local-currency emerging market debt, gold, commodities, and short-duration "dry powder." He expects CPI to print above 4% as oil tops $100 and diesel hits $8 a gallon, and he predicts a 25 basis point hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He also explains why 30-year TIPS won't protect investors from rising rates and why he's skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Operation Twist. He sees a dangerous web of private credit, arbitraged credit ratings, and offshore reinsurance, calling private credit the fuse and insurance companies the bomb. He urges annuity buyers to stick with mutual insurers and warns that bailout pressure will be intense when the AI and private markets reckoning arrives.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalWebsite: https://doubleline.com/Webcasts: https://doubleline.com/doubleline-webcasts/0:00 Intro1:16 Shiller CAPE, a decade of negative real returns? 3:33 The mood turns: AI credit starts to crack8:10 Gundlach Unlocked: his new portfolio with zero AI exposure12:12 Gold, plus commodities and dry powder17:25 Rising rates and the $40 trillion debt milestone17:55 Operation Twist and the endgame for the debt22:19 Oil above $100 and a near-empty Strategic Petroleum Reserve25:12 Why CPI is headed above 4% and Warsh's 2% promise28:54 The German Bund and GDP model for the 10-year31:54 When he'd buy long bonds35:27 Will Warsh hike? 38:31 Advice for Scott Bessent? 40:14 The Fed follows the 2-year41:20 Dollar debasement and the 30-year TIPS myth43:29 Why you can't trust credit ratings46:27 Private credit is the fuse, insurers are the bomb53:25 Peak optimism: this feels like 1999 and 20061:01:18 Final warning: the hard side of the street

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Wednesday, 16-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2026 5:10


US equities were down in Wednesday trading, rebounding a bit from their worst levels after somewhat hawkish remarks from Warsh post-FOMC. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp as widely expected, while dot plot showed one additional rate hike for 2026 and nothing more in 2027. Market still pricing in 25 bp of hikes through year-end.

TD Ameritrade Network
Warsh Needs to 'Thread Needle Very Carefully' to Balance Economy with Inflation

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2026 6:34


William Lee says the Fed can still surprise even as Wall Street braces for a greater than 90% interest rate hike Wednesday, especially if Kevin Warsh shows signs this hike is just "for face." Jeff Klingelhofer believes the Fed needs to put its foot down in maintaining independence by establishing chances of a rate hiking cycle to balance rising inflation with the U.S. economy. William disagrees with Jeff, arguing Warsh needs to "thread the needle very carefully" on how he addresses the fight against inflation. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/schwab-Network/dp/B08JJRQG9T/Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/channel/bb1b75050268416e82a557ff6387bff3/browseWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus/catalog/live-tv-channels/3123029569/schwab-networkFollow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The World Tonight
Trump denounces Fed's decision to raise interest rate

The World Tonight

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2026 37:28


US President Trump has lashed out at a decision by new chair of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh to raise interest rates for the first time in three years. Warsh said he was taking the decision to combat inflation, as fuel prices spike around the world. We get reaction and look at worldwide protests against the price of fuel.Also on the programme: explosive new claims about the King's reaction to the death of Princess Diana - from her brother.The playwright and commentator Bonnie Greer is remembered by the composer with whom she co-wrote an opera about her famous Question Time appearance alongside BNP leader Nick Griffin.And we rewind to a pre-vinyl period as wax cylinder music recordings are made live on stage at the Royal Academy of Music.

Nightly Business Report
Yields Surge, The Fed vs. Oil, and a Predictions Pop 9/15/26

Nightly Business Report

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2026 43:46


The yield on 10-year notes hitting the highest level since 2007 ahead of the Fed decision. Jefferies' David Zervos expects a more dovish Warsh and says the market is wrong on rates. Plus, prediction markets are already scoring this NFL season. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Hartmann Report
Commonwealth Report: Warsh Faces Trump Over Rates

The Hartmann Report

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2026 7:56


Warsh faces Trump over ratesLutnick's dividend math collapsesDiesel breaks pumpsTrump accounts favor the richKansas jobs at riskTrump admits checks are for votesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

FT News Briefing
Fed and BoJ expect rate hikes as US bond market flails

FT News Briefing

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2026 11:37


US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent's interventions in the American bond market haven't worked so far, but could interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan this week change things? Plus, Russia hit a Ukrainian train line moments after foreign dignitaries transited it, and the FT's Zehra Munir explains how protesters cancelled a data centre project in Virginia. Mentioned in this podcast:Warsh and Trump on collision course as investors expect Fed to raise ratesScott Bessent fails to break ‘fever' in US bond marketRussia strikes Ukrainian train line moments after foreign dignitaries passThe civil war in Data Centre AlleySubscribe to the FT: ft.com/briefingsaleWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts The FT News Briefing is produced by Sonja Hutson, Saffeya Ahmed, Katya Kumkova, and Josh Gabert-Doyon. Our show is mixed by Sam Giovinco and Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello, Peter Barber and David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Flo Phillips is the FT's global head of audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
I'm Banned From Fox News for This Forecast... It Just Came True

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2026 61:42 Transcription Available


Fox dropped Peter for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI proved it. Now an 88% rate hike, 19-year-high yields, and $100 oil.

The Pomp Podcast
Why Bitcoin Wins No Matter What The Fed Does | Jordi Visser

The Pomp Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2026 53:37


Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the timing for the next bitcoin bull market, why the Clarity Act could send bitcoin to $100K, and how AI's exponential progress is leaving the market mispriced. We also discuss the Fed's rate decision, the Trump-Bessent-Warsh alignment on AI and crypto, and why the AI bubble skeptics have it backwards.=====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! =====================Lava is a global platform for bitcoin financial services. Spend with Lava Card and earn up to 5% back in bitcoin with every purchase— all with no annual fee, no FX fees, and zero spread. Plus you can borrow against your bitcoin at the lowest rates, earn yield on cash, and move fiat or stablecoins globally. Get started at lava.xyz/POMP=====================TOKEN2049 returns to Singapore on October 7–8 at Marina Bay Sands. The world's largest crypto event. 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, 1,000 side events and the whole industry in one place for two days, into the F1 weekend. Get 10% off your ticket with code POMP10 at https://token2049.com/singapore=====================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp=====================0:00 - Intro0:57 - Do interest rates even matter anymore? 4:44 - Static vs Dynamic investors9:30 - AI agents vs hedge funds vs retail: the new market structure12:01 - How do you actually value crypto? (Robinhood chain & tokenization)23:09 - Timing the next bitcoin bull market27:05 - AI news dump: Astra, hacking scares & the AGI debate35:27 - The Fed's rate decision: three scenarios42:20 - Bessent, Warsh & Trump's Fed alignment50:54 - Bitcoin, AI & Space as $2 trillion assets

Jacobin Radio
Long Reads: The Class Politics of Central Banking w/ Martijn Konings

Jacobin Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2026 63:17


The US Federal Reserve appointed a new chair earlier this year. Kevin Warsh replaced Jerome Powell, who had been under constant fire from the Trump administration. For many, Warsh's appointment represented a turn towards the overt politicization of monetary policy. Is the age of central bank independence coming to an end? And is it something that the Left should mourn or celebrate? Martijn Konings, professor of political economy at the University of Sydney and author of The Bailout State: Why Governments Rescue Banks, Not People, joins Long Reads to discuss the state of central banking. Long Reads is a Jacobin podcast looking in-depth at political topics and thinkers, both contemporary and historical, with the magazine's writers. Hosted by features editor Daniel Finn. Produced by Conor Gillies with music by Knxwledge.

The Julia La Roche Show
#407 Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2026 36:41


The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump?1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here?7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination?14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end?16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag)20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter?25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae?28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold?30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights"31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability

Remnant Finance
E116 - Every Institution I Trusted Broke Its Promise (So I Went Looking for One That Couldn't)

Remnant Finance

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2026 141:56


Book a call: https://remnantfinance.com/calendarEmail us at info@remnantfinance.com or visit https://remnantfinance.com for more informationFOLLOW REMNANT FINANCEYoutube: @RemnantFinance (https://www.youtube.com/@RemnantFinance)Facebook: @remnantfinance (https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560694316588)Twitter: @remnantfinance (https://x.com/remnantfinance)TikTok: @RemnantFinanceDon't forget to hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBEHans joins Oto Gomes on the Oto Gomes Crypto Show for a long-form conversation covering his background, the end of his Naval Aviation career, and how a contract fight with the Navy led him to Infinite Banking. The episode opens with a macro segment on the August payroll number coming in at triple expectations, what a strong labor print does to the Fed's split mandate, and why the long end of the curve is not buying what Powell, Warsh, and Bessent are saying, with 52-week highs across the two, five, and ten year.Hans and Oto cover the Kennedy School years and learning macroeconomics from central bankers, the EUA statute and the right to refuse, the boilerplate denials that exposed the religious accommodation process, the recouped bonus and the debt the Navy handed to the Treasury, and the pediatrician appointment that ended the vaccine question permanently. From there they get into human life value and what most families are actually insured for, protect save grow as an order of operations, base premium versus PUA and why structure determines year one cash value, the policy loan and its absence of underwriting or repayment schedule, and the average rate of return fallacy that holds up even with perfect hindsight. Because Oto's audience operates in the private and Hans works in the public, they draw that line explicitly throughout. Chapters 00:00 – Opening Segment 02:20 – Public versus private, and which path this show takes 06:40 – Why the long end is calling the bluff 09:30 – COVID and taking every assumption down to the studs 11:03 – Navy aviation and the grad school program 12:30 – Cambridge, spring 2020, and the two weeks before the shutdown 16:20 – EUA products and the legal case against the mandate 20:40 – Boilerplate denials and a process built to reject 22:40 – Benched for two years, and looking for something to learn 24:30 – "You wrote the contract, I just signed it" 26:30 – The $60,000 bonus and the loan they invented 28:00 – Norfolk, and a billet that did not exist 30:10 – Separation, the Treasury, and 30% on top 33:00 – The class action and what the government settles for 35:00 – Researching the childhood schedule at 50/50 36:30 – The pediatrician appointment that ended the question 42:30 – Pensions, Title X, and the golden handcuffs 49:00 – The Kennedy School and learning macro from central bankers 52:00 – The Creature from Jekyll Island 54:30 – Being handed the book at Thanksgiving 2021 01:00:30 – Getting licensed, then picking it up to disprove it 01:02:30 – Two hundred years of case law and a contract that has never defaulted 01:04:40 – Pirates of Manhattan and whole life as a Tier 1 asset 01:09:00 – Human life value and what your family actually loses 01:11:30 – A McLaren insured like a Civic 01:14:40 – The asset report card and the job of a dollar 01:17:30 – Liability and creditor protection in 48 states 01:20:30 – The average rate of return fallacy 01:26:30 – Planning 30 years out and what that assumed in 1990 01:29:30 – Base premium, PUA, and cash value in year one 01:32:30 – The policy loan and who guarantees the collateral 01:39:30 – The collateral stack and the bank that still hesitated 01:55:00 – Who this is not for 01:57:00 – The mortgage analogy for base and PUA 02:02:00 – Series 65, Remnant Frontier, and the offensive coordinator 02:08:00 – The distribution problem and the 4% rule 02:12:30 – What happens if you clip the three worst years 02:17:30 – Closing Segment

Inside the ICE House
September Markets in Focus: Bitcoin's Breakout, Small Caps + the Fed's Rate Move

Inside the ICE House

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2026 11:02


Phil Rosen joins Inside The ICE House to unpack Bitcoin's 30% surge, tying most of the gain to the Treasury's buyback announcement and noting the pullback after Jackson Hole. He stays structurally bullish on Bitcoin, pointing to currency debasement as the real long-term driver regardless of Fed noise. On small caps, he flags the Russell 2000's 25% rally as less impressive against a flat five-year stretch and favors rotating into large caps here. Rosen doubts Warsh will hike in September despite market odds suggesting otherwise, arguing the AI CapEx cycle matters more than a quarter-point move. He closes by noting a surprise hike would sting near-term, but strong earnings give the market room to absorb it.

Nightly Business Report
Bond Bonanza, Driving Oil Action, A GOP Guarantee? 9/10/26

Nightly Business Report

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2026 44:03


Yields continue higher, and on the heels of a strong 30-year bond auction, Rick Santelli says it's “war, not Warsh” moving rates. Real Macro's Jeff Currie on the “toxic” double-trade pushing oil prices higher. Plus, President Trump's $5,000 midterm ‘dividend.' Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mind the Macro
August 31 Episode

Mind the Macro

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2026 19:29


In this episode, we discuss the most recent PCE release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. PCE came in higher than anticipated keeping the Federal Reserve on their toes. In addition, Warsh indicated in his Jackson Hole speech that the Fed needs to be more attentive to it's inflation mandate.

The Financial Exchange Show
Bond Market Tests Warsh as Energy Prices Keep Climbing

The Financial Exchange Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2026 38:30 Transcription Available


Brent crude is back above $100, diesel is closing in on $6 a gallon, and bond investors are testing whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh can keep yields under control.Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane discuss why diesel prices could keep rising, how Treasury buybacks and Bessent's “I am the house” comments are being received by markets, and why next week's Fed meeting could become a defining credibility moment for Warsh. They also cover growing AI safety concerns after an Anthropic researcher quit over out-of-control fears, why adjustable rate mortgage headlines may be overstated, LIV Golf's bankruptcy filing, and Apple's expected foldable iPhone launch.

The Wall Street Skinny
I got to ask Scott Bessent ONE QUESTION. His answer shocked me.

The Wall Street Skinny

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2026 57:13


Everyone in the financial media is telling you the same story: Scott Bessent's surprise Treasury buyback announcement is a thumb on the scale of the bond market, and it's making Kevin Warsh's job at the Fed harder. But what if the headlines have it exactly backwards? What if the Treasury Secretary is actually running interference for the one thing the Fed Chair can't do himself? Fresh off asking Bessent this question face-to-face at the Charlotte Economic Club, Jen breaks down why she thinks there's a stealth rate hike hiding inside what looks like yield suppression, and why the best way to understand it is a three-act magic trick straight out of The Prestige. To get there, we have to answer the questions most coverage skips entirely. What actually happens at a quarterly refunding, and why does the Treasury auction schedule matter more than almost anyone realizes? What's the difference between an on-the-run and off-the-run bond, and why are aged long bonds from the COVID era trading below 50 cents on the dollar? When the Treasury buys back 30-year paper and funds it with T-bills and short-dated notes, is that QE, or is it something closer to the opposite? And why would Bessent make this move right before the AI hyperscalers flood the corporate bond market in September? Then things get weirder. Why did the US just participate in the biggest coordinated yen intervention in decades, and what does it have to do with Japan's Treasury holdings? How do stablecoins, a resurgent crypto market, and a shaky dollar all fit into the same trade? And what do Bessent and Warsh, supposedly at war, have in common through their shared mentor Stan Druckenmiller, whose AI-generated op-ed became its own scandal?

InvestTalk
Fed Rate Hike September 2026: Is Warsh's Inflation Warning a Game-Changer?

InvestTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2026 45:14


Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh rocked markets at Jackson Hole by declaring that inflation is not slowing and reaffirming a commitment to hitting the 2% target. With Gulf stock markets already falling on rising rate-hike bets, investors need to understand what a more hawkish Fed means for stocks, bonds, and their wallets.Today's Stocks & Topics: Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO), Market Wrap, Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), Tariffs, Alternative to Money Market Accounts, Fed Rate Hike September 2026: Is Warsh's Inflation Warning a Game-Changer?, HDFC Bank Limited (HDB), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation (PRCT), Corn Contracts and Food Inflation.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code claud.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Fisher Investments - Market Insights
This Week in Review | US-Iran War, Employment Data, G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting (Sept. 4, 2026)

Fisher Investments - Market Insights

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2026 6:24


This Week in Review | US-Iran War, Employment Data, G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting (Sept. 4, 2026) The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • US-Iran war escalation • US employment data for August • The G20 finance ministers' meeting Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: 1. Source: WSJ, as of 9/3/2026. “U.S. and Iran Trade Strikes in Latest Fight for Control of Hormuz” 2. Source: MarketWatch, as of 9/4/2026. Brent Crude continuous contract, 9/3/2026. 3. Source: FactSet, as of 9/4/2026. MSCI World Total Return Index, 8/31/2026 – 9/3/2026. 4. Source: MarketWatch, as of 9/4/2026. Brent Crude continuous contract, 1/1/2022 – 9/3/2026. 5. Source: MarketWatch, as of 9/4/2026. Brent Crude continuous contract, 9/3/2026. 6. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 9/4/2026. United States Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, July 2026 – August 2026. 7. Source: CNBC, as of 8/31/2026. “Bessent, Warsh kick off G20 finance meeting with growth-focused remarks.” Want to dig deeper? • More on how investors can parse through the recent Iran flare up: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/on-the-iran-flare-up Have feedback for this Fisher Investments video? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview7Sept2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

HousingWire Daily
Oil prices, mortgage rates and jobs Friday preview

HousingWire Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2026 21:11


On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about how oil prices and jobs data are affecting mortgage rates right now. Related to this episode: How long can mortgage rates stay below 7%? HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ HousingWire Mortgage Banking Summit – October 1 More info about HousingWire Top 5 Trending: NEXA Lending launches new model, touts 100% revenue split for LOs House Republicans outline plan to overhaul CFPB Mortgage rates jump after Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks Jay Bray on how Rocket plans to win brokers in a tough market Announcing the 2026 HousingWire Vanguards Want more from Sarah? Don't forget to subscribe! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Millionaire Mindcast
September Rate Hikes, Warsh's Warning From Jackson Hole, Housing Market Collapse | Money Moves

Millionaire Mindcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 56:17


This episode breaks down the immediate market reactions to Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech regarding persistent inflation. With economic data remaining elevated and geopolitical tensions causing unexpected oil spikes, the likelihood of rate cuts continues to fluctuate, creating unique challenges for both commercial and residential lending environments.The discussion also explores the approaching "silver tsunami" in the US housing market, examining how the demographic shift of baby boomers selling their homes will impact supply and pricing over the next decade. Finally, the episode outlines three critical benchmarks to measure true financial health and shares a highly effective, unconventional relationship-building strategy previously utilized by Bill Clinton.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDKevin Warsh's hawkish inflation warning at the Jackson Hole summitS&P 500 earnings growth and ongoing corporate profitabilityGeopolitical conflicts and their direct impact on global oil pricesFederal Reserve interest rate policy and shifting rate cut probabilitiesThe demographic silver tsunami preparing to hit the US housing marketMedian household net worth benchmarks broken down by age groupThe significant financial advantage of maintaining zero credit card debtBill Clinton's "one at a time" networking and relationship-building secretKEY TAKEAWAYSDespite elevated interest rates, corporate earnings in the S&P 500 continue to rise, showing underlying resilience in the broader stock market.The cost of capital remains the primary headwind for real estate, making both commercial and residential lending exceptionally difficult for institutions to navigate profitably.As baby boomers age out of homeownership, the housing market will see an influx of supply that younger, smaller demographic generations may struggle to financially absorb.Actively investing in the stock market puts you ahead of 38% of Americans, emphasizing the long-term importance of consistent financial participation.Carrying zero credit card debt is one of the most accurate indicators of long-term financial stability and wealth-building potential.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONVisit skylineocresidences.com to discover luxury homeownership and exceptional value at Skyline OC.Invest in the Imagos Income Fund for steady passive returns targeting 10%. Text INCOME to 844-447-1555.Get a free financial portfolio X-Ray to audit your current investments. Text XRAY to 844-447-1555.Partner with the team on commercial real estate equity deals. Text DEALS to 844-447-1555.

Top Traders Unplugged
GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 84:20 Transcription Available


Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh's recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Marvin on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy?40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Making Sense
WTF Just Happened at Jackson Hole?

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 34:34


J-Hole jolted the markets, only to have Warsh's J-Hole narrative jolted right back with JOLTS. Caught in between are interest rates which nobody seems to have a handle on even though the answers are right there in Treasury Secretary Bessent's words and the latest European inflation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University Live 2October 9-12, West Palm Beach, Florida40 seats exist. Application only.https://eurodollar-university.com/edu-conference-2026----------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

DH Unplugged
DHUnplugged #816: Strikes, Spikes, Hikes

DH Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 64:13


September – here we are and the volatility starts. Bear Invasions – is this something we should pay attention to? Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too. Bombing Iran again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - September - here we are and the volatility starts - Bear Invasions - is this something we should pay attention to? - Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too - Bombing Iran again - and again. Markets - Bonds - moving higher - Warsh and Bessent challenged - NVDA earnings - price hikes - Employment Report coming this Friday - Dell earnings - WOWWWW! DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com LAKE AMERICA - Google Maps now shows "Lake America" to U.S. users after the federal naming change. - Canadian users still see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere see both names. - Canada did not adopt the change, setting up an easy cross-border naming fight. OIL / IRAN - Last week - Oil dropped more than 3% as traders viewed tougher Iran sanctions as less disruptive than renewed military escalation. - Brent fell to roughly $88.58 and WTI to about $82.36. - Washington stopped short of immediately targeting major Chinese banks buying Iranian oil. - Markets also reacted to hopes for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. ----  OH WAIT>>>> IRAN - FIGHT IS ON - We are back bombing and they are retaliating - We retaliate, they bomb - Threat: President Trump in phone interview with Fox News reporter repeats that if Iran retaliates, they will be hit harder, but he adds that if Iran retaliates for a third time "they will be totally wiped out as a country"; says any deal with Iran will not be "worth the paper it is printed on" - Oil Up ... DICK'S / FOOT LOCKER - Dick's shares plunged about 30% after earnings and guidance disappointed. - Core Dick's comps rose 4.9%, but Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%. - Management blamed weak sneaker launches, stale inventory and a highly promotional footwear market. - Dick's has already taken more than $500 million in charges tied to the Foot Locker turnaround. BASEBALL CARDS GO CASINO - Online "repack" platforms let customers buy randomized graded cards and immediately sell them back. - Prices can range from roughly $25 to thousands of dollars per pack. - The model increasingly resembles gambling: randomized payoff, instant resale value and repeat play. - Arena Club, Fanatics and others are pushing deeper into a market already generating billions in transactions. GOVERNMENT-OWNED STOCKS - Stocks with U.S. government backing face new legal and political risk around Washington taking equity stakes. - Intel surged after government investment plans surfaced; MP Materials also jumped after a Pentagon stake. - Trilogy Metals soared after a government deal, then gave back much of the move. - A lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement could have implications for similar federal equity deals. CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS - China's industrial profits rose 11.2% year over year in July. - Profit growth slowed from 15.1% in June but remained strong. - Manufacturing profits rose nearly 19%, while mining profits jumped roughly 35%. - Strong factory profits continue to contrast with weak property and domestic-demand signals. DELL EARNINGS GUIDANCE - Earnings we great - Guidance out of control - Dell sees Q3 mid-point EPS of $6.50 vs $4.46 FactSet Consensus; sees mid-point of revs at $49.00 bln vs $41.36 bln FactSet Consensus - Dell sees FY27 mid-point EPS of $25.50 vs $18.99 FactSet Consensus; sees revs mid-point of $192 bln vs $174.05 bln FactSet Consensus TARGET HALLOWEEN BACKLASH - Target pulled a children's clown costume after complaints that it resembled blackface imagery. - The company apologized and said it was reviewing how the product cleared internal approval. - The controversy adds another brand-management problem after several politically charged merchandise fights. LEGO BOOM - Lego first-half revenue jumped 21% to about $6.5 billion. - Net profit rose 32%, while consumer sales increased 22%. - More than 330 new products helped drive demand across Star Wars, Formula 1, Botanicals and other franchises. - Lego continues gaining share while expanding stores and manufacturing capacity. WAIT - WE'RE BOMBING IRAN AGAIN - U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, the first U.S. attack on Iran in several weeks. - Iran retaliated with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, restarting direct military exchanges. - Oil jumped more than 2%; Brent moved back above $90 and WTI above $85. - The Strait remains the key issue: roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through it, so actual disruption to tanker traffic matters more than the headlines. IRAN SANCTIONS - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran could face secondary sanctions and loss of access to the dollar system. - Scott Bessent described the campaign as an "economic D-Day." - Treasury sanctioned dozens of people, companies and vessels but initially avoided major Chinese financial institutions. - The expanded sanctions reach oil, shipping, gold, aviation, technology and digital assets. JOBS REPORT / FED TEST - August payrolls hit Friday after July shocked with a 23,000 job decline. - Expectations are for only modest job growth, making revisions and the unemployment rate especially important. - Fed rate-hike odds jumped after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments; a strong jobs number could push them higher. - JOLTS, ADP and ISM data provide several previews before Friday.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Stephanie Pomboy: Has The Grand Game Just Changed?

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 63:50


REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceThe past few weeks have seen potential game changers popping up at home as well as all over the globe.How tectonic are they?Are they re-shaping the future in ways that impact investing strategy?To find out, we have the great good fortune of sitting down with research analyst Stephanie Pomboy, who will not only share her latest macro & market outlook, but take audience Q&A live.#macro #geopolitics #oil 0:00 Has the grand game just changed?2:15 Kevin Warsh and a less interventionist Fed4:21 Ending the Fed put: the Greenspan parallel6:33 Long-term Treasury yields at two-decade highs8:28 Are we in a secular higher-rate era?9:49 Bankruptcies, private credit marks, and hidden stress11:33 Why no crisis yet: Fed-put psychology13:48 Mixed signals from Warsh and Bessent15:41 Why the economy hasn't buckled yet18:53 AI capex risk and 2007 credit-market echoes21:09 Crowding out and debt rolling at 7.4%23:27 Treasury intervention: buybacks and the yen24:20 The 1921 depression and letting markets clear30:34 Has the put moved from the Fed to Treasury?32:13 The TGA “trillion-dollar” bluff and midterms35:18 Revaluing the U.S. gold reserve37:20 Japan's soaring yields and the yen carry trade40:48 How seismic would a carry-trade unwind be?42:03 Leverage, margin debt, and corporate balance sheets45:26 Venezuela oil: game changer or nothing burger?53:35 Venezuela, Iran, and the China angle54:51 Canada, Iran, and America as the world's gas station57:55 The biggest if: midterms, 2028, and policy reversal1:00:00 Where to follow Stephanie + conference wrap_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The Rebel Capitalist Show
Warsh Just Delivered A Bond Market Death Blow

The Rebel Capitalist Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 38:27


Learn the 3 Contrarian Steps to Protect & Grow Your Wealth During the Biggest Financial Bubble in History (The AI Bubble) sign up herehttps://rcp.georgegammon.com/registration---webinar Want the cheat code to protect and grow your wealth? Check out Rebel Capitalist Pro https://rcp.georgegammon.com/pro

Get Rich Education
621: The Deals Changed—Did You? Future Interest Rates and Inflation

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 40:56


Keith explores how real estate strategies have shifted from the 1980s to today and explains why investors need to adapt deal structures to changing interest rates, lending conditions, and market cycles.  He highlights current opportunities in new construction and builder rate buydowns, along with the long-term benefits of fixed-rate debt.  Keith is joined by economic futurist and author Richard Vague, who challenges conventional beliefs about inflation and interest rates and explains how government intervention, war, and supply constraints shape asset prices and leverage decisions. Together, they provide a big-picture framework for understanding how today's macro environment affects real estate investing decisions. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/621 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Learn how dramatically real estate has changed from the 1980s through the late 2020s. We'll be sure that your approach is changing with it. Then a great guest and I discuss how war and future calamities will affect mortgage rates, inflation, and your real estate today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Home Buyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6,000 homes under management, for a free live webinar, the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth. Again, that September 30th. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth.   Speaker 1  1:35   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:51   Welcome to GRE from Cambridge, England, to Cambridge, Massachusetts, and across 188 world nations. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're inside Get Rich Education. You could be doing anything with your time. I'm grateful that you choose to listen to me every week. You know, real estate investors sometimes say, "Ah, there aren't any deals anymore. What they usually mean is the deal structure that they learned five years ago stopped working. There are always opportunities in real estate, but your approach changes with interest rates, lending standards, inventory, construction, government policy, and just the overall economic cycle. The best investors don't wait for yesterday's market to return. That's like someone still hoping for Blockbuster Video Store to reopen. They identify what today's market is offering instead. Just consider this historic retrospective on real estate investing from the Reagan administration to today, in 1981, the 30-year mortgage rate peaked above 18.6%. I mean, just imagine proudly telling your friends that you locked in at 17% before rates went higher. That mortgage needed its own defibrillator. By 1984, rates were still near 16%. The strategy then, the approach, was for a buyer to assume the existing owner's lower rate mortgage that they locked in a few years earlier, perhaps in the late 70s, that's how you got a good deal, assuming that existing owners lower-rate mortgage. You can't do that so easily today.   Keith Weinhold  3:50   By the late 80s and early 90s, the opportunity shifted from assuming attractive debt to buying distressed properties. The S and L crisis was upon us. Savings and loan failed lenders found themselves holding piles of distressed real estate, so investors bought foreclosures and REOs at discounts. They improved neglected buildings and then they repositioned them for income. You probably know that REO stands for real estate owned on a bank's balance sheet. All REO means is bank-owned property, but that's what you did. You found those, and then you scooped up a deal that way. As the 1990s progressed, interest rates declined, and loans also became really easy to obtain. We were tilting into the loosey-goosey easy lending environment. In the 90s, it was popular to buy an undervalued property, renovate it, raise the rent, and refinance it based on the improved value. That process later got a buzzy acronym and became known as the Burr strategy: buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat. By 2005, financing got more creative. This is when I was a new real estate investor. I remember obtaining what were known as 8015 five combo loans. This meant an 80% first mortgage, 15% second mortgage, and 5% down payment. You remember those? If you've been around for a while, you do. And see, this way you could avoid paying PMI, and you could control property with an astounding 20 to one leverage ratio due to that 5% down payment, but soon enough lending just got absolutely too creative and easy. The quiet lending party turned into a boisterous kegger, delivering the 2008 financial. crisis, and pretty soon I could no longer get any loans. From 2009 through the early 2010s, you could buy foreclosures and short sales at enormous discounts if you could find the loan.   Keith Weinhold  6:20   Financing was tough, but prices were super low. It might have even made sense to pay cash at that time. Fear was everywhere right after the global financial crisis. I mean, it really took courage to act when others were hiding under the bed. By 2020 and 2021, the opportunity changed from cheap property to cheap money. Mortgage rates dropped below an absurd 3% as a result of the COVID pandemic. You could lock up extraordinarily cheap debt for less than the inflation rate, and then let inflation nibble away at it like Pac-Man. Of course, a lot of us are still benefiting from that today, but that opportunity is long gone now. But it doesn't mean that deals are gone today. Where's the opportunity? One of the best ones is often found in new construction, large build. have got to keep moving their inventory as they build these homes because they have got to keep their crews busy. An unsold house for a builder-I mean-that produces as much income as an unplugged Bitcoin miner. Rather than make conspicuous price reductions, builders use their financial muscle to buy down mortgage rates for you, often in the 5% range or even lower.   Keith Weinhold  7:52   Builders might also offer you closing cost assistance, upgraded finishes, or other incentives that a single resale seller just can't match. So from the Reagan administration to today, over 45 years, the winning strategy just keeps morphing. It started out back then as assume the loan, over to buy distress, then to renovate and refi, then it was a creative financing wave, and then cheap debt, and today take the builders buy down. That's where we are. The mistake is deciding in advance what a deal is supposed to look like. The best deal structure changes, and of course, it's going to change again. The investor who keeps fighting the last war is always going to conclude that the opportunity has disappeared, but it hasn't. It's just changed clothing. Still, though, today's new purchases now-they're not as good as the deals that they were five years ago, but the best investors keep investing. They keep adding to their portfolio. It's what they've always done. Absolutely zero winning investors that are successful over time look back and say things like, "I didn't add anything to my portfolio during that 10-year span for this or that reason, the market changes, and you've got to adapt with it. That's a way to think about it. Take solace in knowing a few things. Deal structure changes over time are inevitable. And larger picture, you are investing in a product that is sustainable residential real estate in the form of long-term rentals. These entry-level properties are a scarce asset that people are going to continue to need. I mean, that's what we do here. Just compare. To the fads that we avoid around here, like NFTs, metaverse real estate, which we discussed on the show a few years ago, but said is highly dangerous, eye buying, value add apartment syndications, SPACs, or how about ICO funded altcoins? We don't chase the latest hot thing here at GRE. It is about what's sustainable, necessary, and cannot be easily disrupted by AI, and that's one reason that Get Rich Education is still standing strong after 52 episodes every year for almost 12 years now. Shortly, we're going to bring in a rather esteemed guest today on the future direction of interest rates and inflation. Interestingly, he believes that raising interest rates does not cool inflation, and that's contrary to popular belief. I'm going to press him on this and ask why, but first, our new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. He's only been on the job a few months now.   Keith Weinhold  11:07   He is gaining a reputation for not forecasting what they're going to do ahead of time, like his predecessor had. I guess I tend to like his disposition and the way that he communicates, I sense some pragmatism with Warsh, but gosh, it often seems that a new Fed chair gets off to a well liked start, and then they do something that lots of people criticize. Like, remember in 2004, late Fed Chair Alan Greenspan suggested more borrowers could benefit from adjustable rate mortgages shortly before rates rose and ARM resets became financial landmines. In 2007, Ben Bernanke said that subprime mortgage problems were likely to be contained. Oh, right after that, they helped trigger the global financial crisis, and more recently, the Jerome Powell gaffe, which I'll mention in the interview shortly. Here's what current Fed Chair Warsh says about inflation:   Kevin Warsh  12:14   For some households, businesses, and market professionals, five years of high inflation have left a mistaken impression, that's hard to shake, that the Fed's implicit inflation target was somehow above 2% Let me reiterate, there is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee's watch. There's only a target, and it's 2%   Keith Weinhold  12:42   It's obvious that he is serious about getting inflation back down to 2% That tends to point toward interest rate increases. Let's discuss that and more with this week's brilliant guest. This week's guest is an economic futurist keynote speaker, and he's quite a popular author. He is chair of the board of the Public School Employees Retirement System. That's the largest public pension fund in Pennsylvania. Previously, the Pennsylvania governor appointed him as the secretary of banking and securities for the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, he's also the founder and president of several various organizations today, and he serves on several boards, including at the University of Pennsylvania and the School District of Philadelphia. I mean, I hardly know how he has time to do it all, but he made time for us today. Hey, it's great to welcome back Richard Vague.   Richard Vague  13:45   It's such an honor to be with you. I certainly enjoyed our last session, and it's really wonderful to be back.   Keith Weinhold  13:51   Well, and so much has changed since you were last here, Richard. First, why don't we pull back and talk to us about the general state of the national economy today, as you see it.   Richard Vague  14:04   ou know the economy was rocking along okay, and you know since you guys are such experts in real estate, I'll tell you one of the most important statistics, in my opinion, is the number of unsold homes, and by all rights, that number should be about 2 million homes. It's only about a million and a half. So there's a deficiency in our housing stock in the United States, which is, yeah, I think good news for the housing industry. It's always good to have a reason to have to grow. You may recall that in 2007, that had gotten up to four millinomes, which was a catastrophe, as we all know. So, it's the economic statistic I looked at first and most closely, and that was, you know, an okay number, and a lot of the things were going along. You know, not fabulous, but not terrible. Things were kind of moving. And all of a sudden now we have the war in Iran, and that's creating all sorts of problems for us, which you know I think you guys are concerned about. So I generally think the economy's been good, but there's a lot of dark clouds on the horizon.   Keith Weinhold  15:15   You know, Richard, I was recently sharing something remarkable with our audience. To your point, just since 2020, consider all the calamities that we've had: COVID, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, tariffs, and the Iran War. Just since 2020, what's the result of all that? Both stocks and residential real estate are near all time highs.   Richard Vague  15:42   Yeah, well, you know, one of the things that's true is that this is something I go to in great detail in my book Paradox. But the more debt there is, the higher asset prices go.   Keith Weinhold  15:53   Yeah.   Richard Vague  15:54   You know, in the case of housing, that broadly helps middle America. In the case of the stock market, the top 10% of the country owns 87% of the stocks, so that tends to go to the wealthiest instead of to the broad population. But yeah, those two things are at highs.   Keith Weinhold  16:12   You're touching on your well-received 2023 book, The Paradox of Debt, and you know, Richard, amidst all these calamities and all this potentially unprecedented level of government intervention that we've had-you know-it makes one wonder during the next crisis, which is inevitably going to happen, will the government just step in and provide relief again? And how would that look?   Richard Vague  16:38   You know, I think that's one lesson that government has learned indelibly. Way back in 1929, in the couple of years that followed, the government did not step in, and we saw what happened. And I think there's a generation of economists that understand the role of government in a calamity, and you know it's pretty simple. You know the government comes in and crops up financial institutions as they did in 2008, simply by providing the liquidity or buying the bad assets, or the government steps in with relief checks as they did in such a massive way in 2020. But the government has learned that at least to some degree, it needs to intervene. I can't imagine that ever not being true.   Keith Weinhold  17:26   Goshmright when you think about 2020s stimulus and how emergency lending facilities were set up, you had the payment protection program, stimulus checks, mortgage loan forbearance. It's just like this government won't let the asset holders fail.   Richard Vague  17:46   Well, yeah, you know, there's failure, and then there's something that's hurtful but not quite failure. You know, I can imagine that the government will be able to prevent, in some circumstances, certain asset prices going down some amount, it's actually fairly commonplace for stocks to go down 10 or 20% I can see real estate prices going down as they have in the commercial office space. Yeah, but yes, the government will step in when those things become extreme to prevent a true calamity.   Keith Weinhold  18:19   Of course, one consequence of the interventionism is elevated inflation. I know how you've talked before about how the level of inflation is higher than most people think. For example, you'll see today's CPI numbers in the mid threes. Talk to us some more about why inflation is higher than most people think.   Richard Vague  18:41   Well, I have studied inflation, you know, fairly diligently, and inflation really relates to the constriction of supply. And if you look over the 250-year history of the United States, we haven't had that many episodes of bad inflation, and they've always related to a constriction of supply. Most of them have occurred during a war when, for obvious reasons, you know, supplies are constricted. The big 1970s episode of inflation was because OPEC, which had so much more power back in those days, acted to you know punish the United States by constricting supplies, and the price of a barrel of oil went from $4 to $40 a barrel. Yeah, between 73 and 79. COVID was another instance where inflation related to constriction of supply. That was you know people couldn't go to the meat factory to cut meat. People couldn't go to the factories to build things, so all of a sudden our supplies were decimated, and we had a short burst of very painful inflation. Well, now we've got the straight of four moves, and that is impacting the price of oil. I think it's going to impact the price of oil more going forward because. Because we've been able to rely on reserves, both the U.S. has been able to rely on reserves, and China has been able to rely on even greater reserves. And you know we haven't seen the brunt of that, but unless something's resolved pretty quickly, I think in the fall and winter we're going to see even more problematic prices there. But we know agricultural prices and even the flow of commodities like wheat are constricted by the constraints in the Strait of Hormuz and, frankly, other waterways as well. Now, one of the things the numbers that you see reported tend to underreport inflation because it looks at a year-over-year number and doesn't really capture it if it's moved up more sharply in the last month or two. So we look at it on a month-by-month. We you know we break it down about as to as many parts as you can break it down into. But PPI, which is kind of a leading indicator on the eventual CPI PPI's producer price index, it was 4.7% this last month. That would suggest to you that things which are in the mid threes now, which is more higher than we want, you know, probably trending over. Maybe not next month, but you know, over the next three to six months, I'm not going to be surprised if the number's more in the four to five range. So, yeah, I think inflation's being somewhat underreported at the moment.    Keith Weinhold  21:29   The PPI being that harbinger of consumer prices, often four to six months down the road. And Richard, the last time you were here, when it comes to checking and controlling inflation, you said something so interesting. You said that higher rates, which is typically the response in order to try to quell inflation, higher rates actually do not lower inflation, and you did not get a chance to expand on that because we ran out of time. Tell us more about why higher rates do not reduce inflation.   Richard Vague  22:05   Well, I'm going to answer that a couple of ways. One of them is higher rates don't open the Strait of Hormuz.   Keith Weinhold  22:12   Right.   Richard Vague  22:13   You can put rates as high as you want, and it's not going to open the Strait of Hormuz.    Keith Weinhold  22:16   Chairman Warsch doesn't open the Strait. Yes, he doesn't get oil produce nothing.   Richard Vague  22:20   Strait of Hormuz.   Keith Weinhold  22:21   Yeah.   Richard Vague  22:21   And so we can do all we want to on raids, which is a very blunt instrument, and it's not going to address the supply constraints that are geopolitical and war related. So, if you want to curb inflation right now, there's two things to do. One of them's you know end the war with Iran, and the other is to kind of back off a lot of these tariffs that have become so problematic. I think there's a place for tariffs. I think there's certain things China's doing that you know a call for an appropriate level of tariffs. I'm not sure we should be big tariffs on Canada and some of these other places, which have the effect of increasing the cost of our farm equipment and cars and other things like that. So, if you really want to address inflation and address the things that truly underlie inflation, and if the second way I'd answer this is to say, go look at the debt, track the data from you know 1945 or 50. You know, we really look at the post World War II period as the place we really learn things from, and over that period, increased government spending has been accompanied by reduced interest rates and reduced inflation. So, reduced interest rates and reduced inflation have gone hand in hand, and rising interest rates and rising inflation have gone hand in hand, and it's a really easy thing to look at. We've got the data on our site, but there's only been three periods where you've had big shifts in government spending and rates. They're pretty easy to look at, and there's actually empirically an inverse relationship between rising interest rates and it's the opposite of what economists tell you.   Keith Weinhold  24:09   I think, in general, economists tell us that when inflation is high, you raise interest rates because consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and those higher rates therefore incentivize people to be savers because they're getting paid a higher yield, keeping those dollars out of the economy, and they're less incentivized to be borrowers and expand the economy that way. I think in general that's why economists say that higher interest rates reduce inflation. Do you agree with that?   Speaker 2  24:40   Well, no, I don't, and the reason I don't is because when you look at the data, that doesn't happen. These are easy things to check, and what I would say to you is that rising interest rates increase costs, and you guys know that better than anybody in the world.   Keith Weinhold  24:56   With mortgages. Yeah.   Richard Vague  24:58   What do rising interest rates do to? Cost of your mortgage.   Keith Weinhold  25:02   Everything increased substantially.    Richard Vague  25:03   It has system prices at the grocery store. Well, the grocery stores have to pay our interest for their inventory. So the more intuitive and obvious thing is that rising interest rates increase prices. And by the way, if you and I were to go look at the data right now, which I look at almost daily, that we would see periods of rising interest rates correlate to periods of rising increased costs.   Keith Weinhold  25:29   Well, I'm glad you look at history because I often say here at Get Rich Education, if you want to know what's going to happen in the future, it's easy to have a hunch, but it's more important to look at history. Can you talk to us some more about how, over the long term, higher interest rates don't suppress inflation? If that's what you're saying,   Richard Vague  25:47   yeah. The greatest rise in inflation, you know, in my lifetime was the late 1970s.   Keith Weinhold  25:55   Yeah,   Richard Vague  25:56   and for the entire time that interest rates were going up, prices and inflation were going up, and it wasn't until interest rates started coming down that inflation started coming down. So we could look at any number of periods, and if you're going to argue the opposite, you need to go find me some data.   Keith Weinhold  26:15   Okay. Well, speaking in more modern times, in the last wave of inflation that we had, the CPI peaked at 9.1% in June of 2022. This is the whole famous Jerome Powell: inflation is only transitory. Oh shoot, no, it's not. I better hike rates. He did, and then inflation came down. Is it as simple as that cause in effect, or did something else make inflation come down post COVID.   Richard Vague  26:42   Inflation came down, and it came all the way down in July of 2022. It didn't come down gradually over six, 912, 18 months. You go look at the length monthly inflation. Inflation came all the way down in July of 2022, and stay has stayed down all the intervening period until very recently with the Iran War. July of 2022 was before there was a dramatic increase in interest rates.   Keith Weinhold  27:18   Right,   Speaker 1  27:19   that's simple.   Keith Weinhold  27:21   What caused inflation to come down? Then is it because supply began to arrive on the market again?   Richard Vague  27:27   People went back to work, started building things again.   Keith Weinhold  27:30   Producing.   Richard Vague  27:32   And the problem was folks had not been able to go to the factories and make things, and so we had a you know global supply deficit. Well, the nice thing about that is that you know money incends people to scramble back to work, make things again, and you know once they start doing that, and the Fed actually produces something they call the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. You can get it on the Fed site. If you look at it, it's supposed to be kind of at zero, and anytime supply chains are disrupted, it shoots up. And any you know, any time the opposite happens, you know there's overcapacity. It goes down, and you can see exactly when supply chains repair is happening. So go look at the. It's called the GSCPI. It's on the Fed side. You'll see that global supply chains had largely started to be dramatically repaired in the spring and summer of 2022, and naturally, supply and demand works. All of a sudden, supply starts showing up, and prices go to hell.   Keith Weinhold  28:39   We're talking with economic futurist author and Pennsylvania's governor-appointed former secretary of banking and securities Richard Vague, more when we come back on the affliction of inflation, what this means for real estate investors, and more. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. What if you got your mortgage loans the same place I get mine. You sure can at Ridge Lending Group NMLS 42056. They provided GRE listeners with more loans than anyone because Ridge specializes in investment property. They'll help you build a long-term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequal and even chat directly with President Caeli Ridge. While it's on your mind, start at ridgelendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Keith Weinhold  29:29   Let me ask you something: If you've worked hard to build wealth, is your money positioned to actually support your goals? A lot of accredited investors leave capital sitting in cash because it feels safe, but inflation and missed income opportunities can quietly erode its value. Freedom Family Investments offers freedom notes for investors seeking structured income backed by real estate. It's a straightforward approach built on real assets, not speculation. In full disclosure, I'm an investor myself. What I like is that their team walks you through how it all works, so you can decide if it aligns with your portfolio and income goals. Every investment carries risk, and nothing is guaranteed. But with a track record of consistent, on-time investor payouts, they built real credibility. Go to freedomfamilyinvestments.com to book a clarity call or text family to 66866. That's family to 66866.    Dolph Derues  30:31   This is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph Derues. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold and don't quit your daydream.   Keith Weinhold  30:45   Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with Richard Vague. Richard is the founder and president of so many organizations today. He's the author of several popular economic books. He chairs the board of the Public School employees retirement system. That's the largest public pension fund in Pennsylvania. He's in a lot of places at once, seemingly. Richard, we're talking about inflation before the break. What is the right inflation rate?   Richard Vague  31:16   Well, like I said, inflation. If you look at the entire 250-year span of the United States has it been an affliction that has affected us that often? It is political kryptonite. So when it does happen, it steers our consciousness, and it you know certainly affects your industry. But you know, if we look historically, the Fed targets 2% It's not a bad thing to target. We never really have achieved that level for any length of period. I think if you look at it over the past several decades and take out the high inflation periods, it probably has averaged closer to three. So I don't think two to 3% is an inappropriate level, and I kind of suspect it'll be a level that typifies our future once we get past, if and when we get past this more.   Keith Weinhold  32:09   Yes, not long ago, I was looking at the history of the CPI or the CPI's equivalent, and over the last 100 years, the rate is about 3.2% and we haven't hit that government-mandated 2% target, which is stated right on the Fed's website. We haven't hit that for any month in about five years now, and this asset inflation, as we know, this disproportionately enriches existing asset owners, and it widens this inequality. Something that's more recently been known as the K-shaped economy, can you talk to us some more about this exacerbating wealth inequality?   Richard Vague  32:48   Well, you hit the nail on the head. Something on the order of 80% of all the net wealth held by Americans is in the form of two things: stock and real estate. If you want to talk about wealth, it's those two things, and those two things, probably 60 or 70% of all of those in the U.S. are held by the top 10% I think it's a single-digit number of those that are held by the bottom 50% So you know, if inflation and debt growth push asset prices up over time. It is a mathematical inevitability that the rich get richer faster than those in the middle and at the bottom, and that simply means inequality will increase through time. I believe that's structural. Unless you address that in very some very specific way it will continue.   Keith Weinhold  33:43   Inflation affects real estate investors more than it does the average person because we borrow these big pools of money often at 75 to 80% loan to value, and in a sense, although we know it's bad for general society, and we do think about the K-shaped economy. Of course, inflation benefits us because it debases our debt. But even if you're not a real estate investor, even if you just own your own home, you know, Richard, I really think it begs the question: Is a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage one of the best forms of debt ever created for ordinary Americans?   Richard Vague  34:22   The 30-year mortgage, which was created, you know, that started on that path in the 1930 s for the very reasons we all know and love, which is getting Americans to own their own home, and has been, you know, a game changer for the country, and truly one of the great things that's been done, and I hope it's something that we continue to defend and preserve.   Keith Weinhold  34:46   Well, that brings up leverage and the prudent use of leverage. As real estate investors, we have this benefit of getting all these 30-year fixed-rate loans without the threat of a. Margin call being made. We're not borrowing over in the stock market. When you sign your loan documents, it doesn't say that the bank can call your note due at any time, but one could take it too far. And when it comes to debt, I think that really begs the question: Where does intelligent leverage end, and then dangerous leverage begin. What's the border?   Richard Vague  35:25   Well, you guys are experts, and I'm not. But the very simple premise is starts with not overpaying for the property to begin with. It is not an exact science, but generally speaking, I think we can tell when prices are relatively high in a given market and or a given year and relatively low, and you you'd always want to kind of be at least in the middle or somewhat on the low end before you acquire a property. So that's step number one, and then step number two is really just giving yourself a buffer, you know. We saw in the global financial crisis that real estate loans were being made in some cases at 100% of value. Yeah, and frankly, we saw at least some episodes within that folks borrowing over 100% of value, and certainly they were very happy when that happened. But we know there's zero margin for error when you do that, and perhaps even a negative margin for error when you do that. So I would think, you know, you guys know better than me, but you know, I hate to borrow it much more than like 90% of value, maybe 95% if it's a smaller asset and you have a government guarantee, and if you can do it at lower leverage, you know, 70 or 80% of value, that's not a bad thing to consider. I tend to think in the real estate world that you know I've seen many investors, particularly in the commercial space, buy things with lower leverage, 50 or 75% But then, as the asset proves itself, they work with their lender to increase the debt-to-value ratio, you know, and get more money at it over time as it becomes an increasingly proven asset. So they migrate their way from 75% to 95% over time. I think that's a logical path.   Keith Weinhold  37:20   That acronym Ninja Loans, which were popular from about 2000 to 2007, that acronym Ninja means no income, no job or assets, and you might still get a loan of 110% of the value of the property. It was profligately irresponsible. Well, Richard, in a moment, I want to ask if you have a resource that our audience can follow along with you if they would like to do so. But before I do that, do you have any last thing that you would like to talk about? Maybe something that I did not ask you, whether it has to do with the general economy or real estate or interest rates or inflations. Is there something else that we should know?   Richard Vague  38:00   What I would do is just endorse your podcast.   Keith Weinhold  38:04   Thanks.   Richard Vague  38:05   You're approaching this in a very intelligent way, and you're very empirical, and I think your listeners are doing themselves a service by continuing to follow what you do. That's a really reasonable, secure, and yet bold path towards creating wealth, then I think you're to be commended.   Keith Weinhold  38:27   Oh, I appreciate the endorsement. I'm always blown away at our following, but you have some resources worth following as well. Tell us about that.   Richard Vague  38:36   Well, we do. We have a weekly video ourselves that it's about a five-minute video, and you can go to our website, which is tycos.com. So t y c h o s.com, and you know we have data on the site. If you're a real geek, you could go in and you can look at our macroeconomic data. You know, but if you're not, you can sign up for the video, and we come out with what we hope is a short but relevant video once a week talking on some aspect of the economy, and you know we'd love to have folks join that if they're interested.   Keith Weinhold  39:10   Well, it's valuable. I suggest you, the listener, check that out. Richard oftentimes turns conventional economics on his head, just like he did with us today, talking about how if there's higher interest rates, that does not necessarily mean lower inflation. Richard, it's been valuable as always. It's been great having you back on the show.   Richard Vague  39:30   It's an honor to be with you. Keep up the great work.   Keith Weinhold  39:38   In this remote interview, I got a beautiful look over Richard's shoulders there on the screen at Center City, Philadelphia, in the ornate buildings there. I will be in that part of the nation again shortly. Big thanks to Richard Vague. If you're looking him up, it is spelled V-A-G-U-E. We've got a. A lot of terrific content coming up on the show over the next few weeks, including fresh takes on building your wealth that you've never heard before. Until next week, I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 3  40:18   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal, or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.    Keith Weinhold  40:46   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. getricheducation.com  

The Dividend Cafe
Monday - August 31, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 13:19


Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political predictions. Housing data showed August national median rent up 0.1% and down 0.8% year-over-year. He reviews Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech emphasizing price stability over employment, asserting a healthy labor market, concern about inflation, and a firm 2% target; markets raised implied September hike odds from ~38% to ~60% and to ~88% for a hike by year-end. Warsh discussed productivity questions (including AI), tight credit spreads, repudiated forward guidance with a “hall of mirrors” analogy, and delivered a cordial, potentially consensus-building tone. Bahnsen also notes a reported 35% U.S. government stake in a Venezuela oil venture with no short-term price impact, and that since 1950 September midterm years were evenly split between up and down markets. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:05 Market Snapshot 02:13 Midterm Election Outlook 05:32 Housing and Rent Update 05:47 Jackson Hole Fed Takeaways 07:02 Rate Hike Odds and Targets 09:00 Forward Guidance and Consensus 11:25 Oil Moves and Venezuela Deal 12:06 September Midterm Seasonality 12:39 Closing and Next Episode Tease Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Real Vision Presents...
Is Risk-On Too Risky? | Macro Mondays: August 31, 2026

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 30:37


Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh's surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case?

The Economist Morning Briefing
Trump announces Venezuela oil deal; Warsh says inflation is too high, and more

The Economist Morning Briefing

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2026 3:08


Nepal's finance minister told Reuters that the country could need as much as $5bn to rebuild after flash floods devastated the area around a section of its border with Tibet Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
The Bond Buybacks Just Doubled... And Now There's a Military Option

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2026 56:56 Transcription Available


Warsh talks tough, buybacks double, a military option surfaces, gold falls $140, and boat prices collapse 50%.This episode is sponsored by Ground News. Go to http://groundnews.com/schiff to get 40% off the unlimited access Vantage plan and unlock world-wide perspectives on the stories shaping our world.This episode is also sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThe Treasury doubled its bond buybacks this week. Then the talk turned to a military option for yields.Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spent his most anticipated speech of the year talking tough about inflation, and Peter Schiff explains why none of it matters. Warsh accepted responsibility for 65 straight months above the 2% target, then never once mentioned the $40 trillion national debt or the Treasury intervention running underneath him. Money supply is expanding at roughly 6% annualized since he took the job. He is talking about putting out the fire while pouring the gasoline.Underneath the speech, the policy escalated. Treasury buybacks already doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion, with roughly a trillion in the general fund available to extend them, shortening the average maturity of the debt and leaving the government more exposed to the rate hikes markets are now pricing. And in a Fox News interview on that same intervention, a military option for lowering bond yields was raised.Peter also covers the week's real data: gold down $140, silver reversing from nearly $71, a Chicago PMI collapse to 47.1 that was the biggest downside miss in eleven years, and a boat market where prices have fallen 50% and lenders are taking the keys, a Fed-made boom and bust he argues housing is about to repeat.Chapters:00:00 Inflation Firestorm00:37 Boatcast Setup01:02 Warsh Speech Breakdown04:12 Debt And Twist Ignored08:10 Forward Guidance Critique11:19 Dual Mandate Tradeoffs12:46 Money Supply Matters13:56 Hawkish Talk And Markets18:50 Trump Military Option20:01 Canada Tariffs Fallout27:53 Market Wrap Gold Bitcoin31:46 Strategy Dilution Spiral32:42 Dollar Yen Bonds Warning34:11 Manufacturing Digital Shift39:03 Boating Bubble Bust45:28 Boat Costs Force Selling48:13 West Marine Bankruptcy53:02 Buyer Market Repos Risk56:30 Boat Ownership Reality57:09 Closing Politics PlugFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#BondMarket #FederalReserveOur Sponsors:* Check out Blinds.com and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.blinds.com* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for $255 off: https://sleep.me* Check out Factor and use my code gold50off for a great deal: https://www.factor75.com* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/GOLD for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

WSJ What’s News
Warsh Says the Fight Against Inflation Isn't Over

WSJ What’s News

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2026 11:10


P.M. Edition for Aug. 28. Economics correspondent Nick Timiraos reports from Jackson Hole on how investors are interpreting Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech. Plus, some of President Trump's biggest corporate donors are now cutting checks to Democrats, too. WSJ's White House reporter Annie Linskey explains how American companies are preparing for a potential Democratic comeback in November. And WSJ's global energy reporter Collin Eaton unpacks how Chevron and other U.S. energy companies are closing in on deals worth billions to expand in Venezuela's oil fields. Sabrina Siddiqui hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.