Podcasts about Quantitative tightening

Thinking Crypto Interviews & News

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2025 56:34

An hour ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) but slowing the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program.And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market's reaction (so far) has been positive.My bullet-point notes to Powell's conference are below.And I'm also happy to announce that Fed-watcher Axel Merk is joining us again to deliver his expert reaction to the Fed's latest guidance as well as take your questions live.

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Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2025 15:00

Crypto News: Bitcoin and Stock Market rally on news of Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating Quantitative Tightening is ramping do. XRP Futures and Solana Futures ETF launching tomorrow. New updates in SEC Ripple Case.Show Sponsor -⭐️ Learn about BitGo, one of the top crypto custodians - https://www.bitgo.com/

3-19-25 Recession or Slowdown

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2025 46:20

UCLA issues its first "Recession Watch" since the 1950's as the media hype ramps up ("If it bleeds, it leads.") Fed meeting preview: No rate cut expectations, but comments regarding Quantitative Tightening will be key for markets. Tuesday's sell off part of the process of markets' finding a bottom. Bonds continue to provide a hedge against stocks. Lance and Danny discuss Lance's demise and how to provide important instructions for the family. Is the market correction a foreshadowing of Recession? The CNBC Fed Survey hikes expectations of Recession: Cannot have higher inflation and Recession; slower economic growth results in lower inflation. Reduction of government spending will reduce economic activity. The genesis of the current banking system. Lance discusses bonds and how debt issuance works, and the alleged "death" of the Dollar. SEG-1: UCLA Issues Recession Watch SEG-2a: I'm Sorry I'm Dead SEG-2b: Recession or Economic Slowdown? SEG-3: CNBC Survey - Hiking Recession Expectations SEG-4: How Debt Issuance Works Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhlr3L6iqV8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Retail Investor Buys The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-investor-buys-the-dip-despite-bearish-sentiment/ "Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/stupidity-and-the-5-laws-not-to-follow/ "Sell Off Accelerates As Recession Fears Emerge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sell-off-accelerates-as-recession-fears-emerge/ “Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025 https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Sloppy Trading Ahead," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuaWsLFLRnQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Retail Investors Buy The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJJkzLT34qA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3245s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession2025 #EconomicSlowdown #StockMarketTrends #FedPolicy #MarketRally #MarketSellOff #KeyResistance #200DMA #MarketCorrection #SloppyTrading #MarketBottom #BuyTheDip #StockMarketNews #RetailInvesting #MarketSentiment #InvestingStrategy #InvestingMistakes #FinancialWisdom #KeyResistance #200DMA #Recession #MovingAverage #ReduceRisk #TakeProfits #MarketCorrection #Recession #MovingAverage #ReduceRisk #TakeProfits #Recession2025 #StockMarketCrash #EconomicOutlook #FedRateCuts #WealthManagement #FinanceTalk #InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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3-19-25 Recession or Slowdown?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2025 46:21

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The End

The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 18, 2025 19:19 Transcription Available

► If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!► More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinanceThe End

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Bond Markets & Fed Moves: Interest Rate Trends, Quantitative Tightening, and Inflation Outlook - Market Update by Matt Graham

Lykken on Lending

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 27, 2025 6:08

This podcast segment explores the latest bond market trends, the Fed's stance on quantitative tightening, and key economic indicators—including PMI and inflation data—driving interest rate movements.-----------------------------------------------------Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.

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The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2025 70:09

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0 (10:01) Skale Ad (10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio (17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies (25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (34:51) Skale Ad (35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't) (38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries (44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates (52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts (01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment (01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Biggest Takeaways From The Fed Interest Rate Decision | Bob Elliot

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Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2024 53:18

In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed's latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election's impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) FOMC Takeaways (02:48) Is Policy Restrictive? (07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced? (09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What (12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy (15:40) Quantitative Tightening (18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do (22:20) Ledger Ad (23:05) The Labor Market (26:33) Election Impact On The Fed (31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation? (35:22) Fiscal Deficits (42:51) Asset Allocation (44:42) Credit Spreads (46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy (49:58) F*ck Valuations (52:11) Follow Bob's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer

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Play Episode Listen Later Oct 29, 2024 57:32

In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jurrien: https://x.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market? (04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique? (07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates (09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity (12:39) Election Impact on Markets (15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields (22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets (26:39) Earnings vs Valuation (34:52) Ledger Ad (35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing? (37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk (42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges (45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates (49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter? (56:42) Learn More About Jurrien __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Will Rising Unemployment Trigger A Recession? | Michael Kantrowitz

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2024 83:54

Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by cooling the economy with its aggressive "higher for longer" interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, the US has managed to avoid recession. Consumer spending has held up, largely due to the "strong" jobs market. But is that likely to remain the case going forward? And if not, if unemployment starts to rise significantly, what should we expect? Mass layoffs? A recession? A correction in the financial markets or home prices? Or none of these? To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler. He's created the HOPE framework, which provides a way for us to track recession risk, and gives us the ability to project what's likely to happen next for the economy. Michael's forecast is surprisingly nuanced and contains elements both bulls & bears should heed. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #employment #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

6-10-24 Will the Fed Reverse Quantitative Tightening?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2024 3:56

Futures are pointing lower this morning, which is no surprise. After a multi-weeks' long run in the markets, investors today will likely re-test the 20-DMA in a repeat performance of market activity we saw back in November thru February. The current environment could run from July through August, migrating higher without any catalyst. This week's FOMC Meeting and CPI Inflation data could turn markets sharply lower, because the market is predicated on the Fed cutting rates. We're expecting the Fed to maintain the status quo of staying on track to cut rates later in the year, and a reversal of Quantitative Tightening. We're urging a continuation of risk management in your portfolios. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8ffEG0Bmas&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #QuantitativeTightening #PortfolioRebalancing #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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Money Illusion and the Fragile Fantasy of Modern Currency

Stuff That Interests Me

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2024 6:08

At a drinks party in around 2011 or 2012, I had the ear of Andrew Feldman, aka Baron Feldman of Elstree, former Chairman of the Conservative Party—he of “swivel-eyed loons” fame, though he never actually said that. (Andrew is a friend, by the way.)“Tell George Osborne to buy back the gold Gordon Brown sold,” I advised.“At these prices?” smiled Andrew with a mix of incredulity, amusement, and polite condescension.“Yes!” I said. “It might be good publicity, even. Or do it secretly, and announce it afterward. The important thing is getting the gold back. We will need it at some point. Why not just quantitatively ease the money and buy it back? You're doing that and buying bonds.”Andrew laughed at my joke, which wasn't a joke, and then wandered off in search of someone more sane to talk to.Given the government has this extraordinary power to create money out of nothing, why don't they just print money and buy hard assets with it?Park that thought for a moment.A couple of months ago, I was at Liz Truss's book launch—aren't you impressed with all this name-dropping?—and I ran into Mark Littlewood, former director of the IEA and now of PopCon. I started bending his ear about the media's failure to report on the Bank of England and how it had shafted Truss with its advanced notice of gilt sales, Quantitative Tightening, which began the day before Kwasi Kwarteng's budget and led to a collapse in the gilt market, the blame for which was then left at Kwasi Kwarteng's doorstep. Mark nodded. “Do you think I don't know?” said Liz.“I would love to be able to grill Andrew Bailey in public,” I said. “Or just ask him one question with people watching. I know exactly what I'd ask him.”“What?” said Mark.“If the Bank of England can print money, why do we need taxes?”Mark laughed and, thinking I was asking him that question, replied, “Money illusion.”Charlie Morris is one of my closest mates and he writes what I think is one of the best investment newsletters out there, in fact a suite of them. I urge you to sign up for a free trial.Money illusion is one of those economic terms that is pretty self-explanatory, but here is an example. Most of know a hundred pounds does not buy you today what it bought you ten years ago, but we still think in terms of past prices. (Old people do this more, for obvious reasons). A worker might feel great with a 5% raise, but if inflation is 7%, he is actually earning less than before. This has been an ongoing process for decades with the result that, in real terms, wages are lower.Here's the Wikipedia definition (edited by me):In economics, money illusion, or price illusion, is a cognitive bias where money is thought of in nominal, rather than real, terms. In other words, the face value (nominal value) of money is mistaken for its purchasing power (real value) at a previous point in time. The term was coined by Irving Fisher in Stabilizing the Dollar, and popularized by John Maynard Keynes in the early twentieth century. Fisher also wrote a book on the subject, The Money Illusion, in 1928.Mark and I both doubted that Bailey would give that as the answer, even if he thought it, which we doubted he would. If governments started printing money and buying assets, many would start questioning money, and faith in fiat might quickly evaporate. If governments worldwide started doing it (eg Britain prints money and starts buying land in France) you are in race-to-the-bottom territory. It would be a race to the bottom for fiat currency.Even if Bailey thought money illusion was the answer, he certainly wouldn't say it because that in itself undermines fiat.Modern money has nominal value, but not intrinsic value. It relies on illusion (and the law) to function. The more you debase it, the less likely that illusion is to hold. Maybe money delusion is more accurate. Obviously, the backing of the law makes a great difference, as does the fact that taxes must be collected in this money, but, boy, is the system vulnerable. Illusions can last a long time. But when they shatter, they shatter very quickly, and then there is nothing.I don't say the system will pop. It has been going on for a long time. But I do observe that it very easily could.It's why I recommend both gold and bitcoin. Both are money in and of themselves: one is the product of nature, the other the product of extraordinary amounts of computer power. Neither relies on anyone else.If you liked this article, please tell a friend.If you are interested in buying gold, check out my recent report. I have a feeling it is going to come in very handy.My recommended bullion dealer is the Pure Gold Company.Life After the State - Why We Don't Need Government (2013), my first book, is now back in print - with the audiobook here: Audible UK, Audible US, Apple Books. I recommend the audiobook ;)And if you are in the Scottish neck of the woods this August, look out for me at the Edinburgh Fringe. I'll be performing one of my “lectures with funny bits”. This one is all about the history of mining. As always, I shall be delivering it at Panmure House, where Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations. It's at 2pm most afternoons. You can get tickets here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Jim Grant: Inflation & Interest Rates Are More Likely To Rise Than Fall In The Years Ahead

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2024 92:15

Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory. Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' era But despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, economic growth remains robust, inflation is lower but is proving sticky, unemployment remains under 4%, and the stock market is at all time highs. In short, the Fed's aggressively restrictive policies haven't cooled things down much. They've been so ineffective that even the Wall Street Journal is asking "Do interest rates really matter anymore?" To find out, we have the great fortune of speaking today with perhaps the world's foremost living expert on interest rates, James Grant, founder and editor of the highly-respected market journal Grant's Interest Rate Observer. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #interestrates #inflation #recession

Midyear US Economic Outlook: Continued Resilience

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2024 3:53

Why is the US economy poised for a strong second half of the year, despite slowing GDP growth? Our Chief US Economist points to population growth, housing demand and anticipated Fed rate cuts. ----- Transcript -----Ellen Zentner: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Economist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss our mid-year outlook for the US economy. As we near the midpoint of this year, we refresh our outlook for the second half of the year. In our base case, the US economy remains strong, but US GDP growth is slowing, and slowing from 3.1 percent on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis last year, to 2.1 percent this year and in 2025.Okay, so what's behind the continued strength? Well, it's something we've been intensely following this year. Faster immigration and population growth will continue to expand the labor supply and support economic activity, and all without increasing inflationary pressures. So, whereas the mid-pandemic labor market was characterized by persistent shortage of labor, the supply of labor is now increasing, and we think will outstrip demand this year.This will drive the unemployment rate higher, which we expect will end this year half a point above 2023 at 4.2 per cent and rise further to 4.5 per cent in 2025. And wage gains should moderate further as the unemployment rate rises. We think consumer activity will continue to slow this year and into 2025 as that cooling labor market weighs on growth in real disposable income and elevated interest rates keep borrowing costs high.Tight lending standards also limit credit availability. That said, we do think lower rates are on the horizon, and this should spur a pickup in housing demand and goods spending around the middle of next year. In fact, after substantial reflation numbers in the first quarter of 2024, we expect lower inflation numbers ahead. We've already seen that in the April data, as rents, goods, and services prices decelerate. The Fed has held the policy rate steady at a range of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent since July 2023, and we expect it will deliver the first quarter point cut in September this year. In total, we expect three quarter point cuts this year, and four more by the middle of next year, which lowers the policy rate to around 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter this year to about 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025. But even before rate cuts, the Fed has announced it will start phasing out Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in June. We expect QT to end around March 2025, when the Fed's balance sheet is a little above 3 trillion.Finally, let's talk about housing. We expect continued growth in residential investment through 2025, with a rapid rise in housing starts, solid new home sales, and a bit more turnover in existing home sales as mortgage rates fall. Home building and increased brokerage commissions should keep residential investment on the boil, posting a 4.6 per cent rise on a 4th quarter over 4th quarter basis this year and 3.2 per cent in 2025. Our residential investment forecasts are a good deal stronger than we expected in the year ahead outlook we published last November. Booming first quarter growth probably reflected a combination of the warm winter and the temporary downswing in mortgage rates. We don't expect the same outperformance later in the year. But at the same time, housing demand is greater than we had anticipated amid that faster population growth. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Roberto Perli on the Past, Present, and Future of the Fed's Balance Sheet

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2024 50:25

Roberto Perli is the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and a senior leader in the New York Fed's Markets Group. In his role, Roberto is responsible for implementing monetary policy at the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Roberto is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about a recent speech he made titled, *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead.* Specifically, David and Roberto discuss the Fed's recent balance sheet activities, the basics and functionality of the overnight reverse repo facility, the importance of slowing down the Fed's balance sheet runoff, and much more. Transcript for this week's episode. Roberto's NY Fed profile Roberto's Twitter: @R_Perli David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead* - Remarks by Roberto Perli at the 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:04:49) – Breaking Down the Role of SOMA Manager (00:08:43) – Recapping the Fed's Balance Sheet Activities (00:11:04) – How to Think About Quantitative Tightening (00:13:19) – Breaking Down the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (00:20:42) – Slowing Down the Runoff and the Future of QT (00:26:48) – How to Determine the Critical Level of Reserves (00:33:03) – The Structural Demand for Bank Reserves Over Time (00:38:55) – The Advantages of the Floor Operating System (00:47:49) – Reserve Supply Focus Moving Forward (00:49:44) – Outro

#LondonCalling: Nobody knows what quantitative tightening will bring.. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion

The John Batchelor Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2024 13:30

#LondonCalling: Nobody knows what quantitative tightening will bring.. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion https://www.wsj.com/articles/quantitative-tightening-becomes-a-trap-for-the-fed-inflation-reserve-requirements-powell-5c8cd332 1913 Wilson Opening Day

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QT Gets a Haircut

Market Wrap with Moe - Business Financial Analysis on Investing, Stocks, Bonds, Personal Finance and Retirement Planning

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2024 44:49

Join Market Wrap's Moe and Javaid Ansari this week as they discuss the changes in Quantitative Tightening and what it means for the market.

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The Fed Slows Quantitative Tightening, Fearing a Bond Meltdown

Communism Exposed:East and West

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2024 6:12

News

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A More Cautious Fed Signals 'High For EVEN Longer' Interest Rates | Axel Merk

wall street longer fed federal reserve interest rates signals jerome powell cautious us treasury quantitative tightening adam taggart axel merk merk investments

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2024 62:38

Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected. Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month. Above and beyond that, Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is proving more stubborn to tame than the Fed hoped at the start of the year, and that getting it down sustainably to the Fed's 2% target will "take longer than previously expected". This essentially is admitting that interest rates will stay hike for EVEN longer. In this video, Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to provide an immediate reaction to the Fed's guidance and take live Q&A from the viewing audience. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #interestrates #inflation #federalreserve

The DC Today - Wednesday, April 10, 2024

The Dividend Cafe

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 10, 2024 7:06

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PWoA4P A down day in both stocks and bonds today following a disappointment on CPI numbers by one tenth on both Headline and Core, that sent the Dow down XXX points and the 10-year bond yield up .18XXbps. We expected .3% on both and got .4% instead to cause todays action, so on one hand a risk off day as higher rates were priced in on yields, and on the other, the difference of a tenth is far from dramatic in and of itself. I do believe the Federal Reserve is an independent institution adhering to its employment and price stability mandates. I also believe they are aware of the Fiscal paradigm as well however (not driven by, but aware). Do I think a $2T budget deficit when we are at full employment with interest expense now accounting for 17% of tax revenue when our average termed government debt interest rate is only at 3.3% is on their radar in terms of Quantitative Tightening, yes I do. They can't go until inflation gives them the OK sign (or gets close enough), but they are ready to reduce rates later this year as they've telegraphed, and from the Fed minutes released just today my point on reducing QT will come in to play sooner than later. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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2127 FBF: The Impact of Quantitative Tightening on Interest Rates & a Better Use for $1 Trillion with Richard Duncan, Part 2

Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 8, 2024 34:38

This Flashback Friday is from episode 958, published last February 13, 2018. Jason Hartman kicks off the show today asking his ultimate question: compared to what? It's a question that will serve you well in all aspects of your life and will guide you down the right path. He also wants to invite you to join him on any of his adventures scheduled for this year to make your vacation planning even easier. Then Jason wraps up his interview with Macro Watch's Richard Duncan. The two tackle the topic of rising interest rates, better uses for going into further debt than giving it to tax reform, how the Fed will react to a tanking stock market, and what we can expect to see over the next few years. #FlashbackFriday #RealEstateInvesting #FinancialIndependence #InvestmentTips #WealthCreation #EconomicAnalysis #TaxReform #GovernmentInvestment #FiscalPolicy #QuantitativeTightening #StockMarketVolatility #PropertyInvestment #GlobalEconomy #RichardDuncanEconomics Key Takeaways: Jason editorial 4:06 Always view things in perspective, and remember, COMPARED TO WHAT? 6:45 Meeting fellow investors is crucial to success 8:12 Why doesn't Jason want you to plan any vacations this year? 12:07 Over Thanksgiving, while re-reading The Art of the Deal, Jason realized that Trump is a New York liberal Richard Duncan Interview 14:52 What people don't realize about interest rates "People buy houses on a payment, not a price" 16:04 What the Fed will do if the market drops 10% and what else will happen if it drops 20% 19:23 What Richard wishes the government had done with the $1 trillion in new deficits that will occur from the new tax reform 23:57 Why Richard thinks the government can invest as wisely as private companies 28:24 What are the next few years going to look like? 30:56 People need to get very familiar with quantitative tightening Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off) www.JasonHartmanUniversity.com www.JasonHartmanIcehotel.com www.VentureAllianceMastermind.com Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

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Gold Is Exploding To All Time Highs

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2024 19:16

Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Christopher Waller Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks on the Paper "Quantitative Tightening around the Globe: What Have We Learned?"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

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02-26-2024 Bears May Find "Trouble Every Day"

Lykken on Lending

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2024 1:01

2.26.24 Bears May Find "Trouble Every Day"---------------------------------Well, CASH about to get UPSET From watchin' Jay's DELAY. He's checkin' out / the news Until his eyeballs fail to see.On January 31, during Jay Powell's press conference, he said that the committee would begin to explore slowing sales of its Treasury portfolio.Some analysts think the language indicates Quantitative Tightening slows later than sooner, while others opined it slows sooner.The market continues to trade sideways and mechanically as it waits for the Fed to reduce the sale of Bonds.Expect the bears not to find the momentum to push rates to a new high. As a result, the bulls can roar back in Spring when QT thaws.No way to delay Cash trouble comin' the Fed's way.-----------------------------------

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Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - Tapering the tightening

UBS On-Air

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 22, 2024 16:01

We examine a potential timeline for the Fed to commence Quantitative Tightening, including the criteria which needs to be met, and how fixed income markets might respond to such a policy shift. We also review allocation preferences within the asset class, and highlight recent performance drivers. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtah, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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Bob Iaccino & Jim Iuorio: Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & “Cash Cows.” Plus: Top Trading Tips & Picks for ‘24

MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 22, 2024 24:21

Bob Iaccino is Co-Founder of Path Trading Partners LLC. Jim Iuorio is Managing Director of TJM Institutional Services. Together, they also co-host the Futures Edge Podcast @PathTradingPartners – and in this segment for the MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast, they share their insights on stocks, bonds, gold, oil, and much more. First, Jim talks about excess liquidity in the system, the “Fed Put,” and why it's just “not the time to be short” stocks. Bob weighs in on prices, wages, and the “reflation narrative,” and why he thinks it makes stocks look great. Both then take the federal government to task for what's happening with debt and deficit spending, while at the same time explaining why the resulting steeper yield curve could still be bullish for equities.The discussion then pivots to the current Fed interest rate outlook. Jim explains why you need to be careful when talking about how many cuts are “priced in” to the markets due to the impact of institutional rate hedging and risk management on futures pricing. Bob makes the same point, walking viewers through what the CME FedWatch Tool was recently showing and how to interpret it. Then Jim goes into what his research into reverse repo market activity says about government borrowing, Quantitative Tightening, bond auctions, and more. And Bob explains why the recent earnings report snafu at Lyft and the boom in algorithmic trading should have traders shrinking position sizes and adjusting their focus.Finally, both experts discuss their favorite investments for the coming year. This section of the interview covers Bitcoin, gold, crude oil, and smaller capitalization stocks, not to mention the Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF (CALF). Then we wrap up by discussing what they'll cover when they speak at the Investment Masters Symposium Miami, set for April 10-12 at the Hyatt Regency Miami. Click here to register: https://www.miamisymposium.com/?scode=061246

Joseph Wang On “Hawkish” Fed Meeting: March Cuts Unlikely, Tapering of Quantitative Tightening (QT) To Begin In Q4 2024 | Joseph Wang, Michael Ippolito, and Jack Farley

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 1, 2024 63:11 Very Popular

__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Lacy Hunt: Prepare For Recession, The Fed's Optimism Is Wrong

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Play Episode Listen Later Feb 1, 2024 87:53

The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

Joseph Wang & Jack Farley on “Hawkish” January Fed Meeting, Tapering Quantitative Tightening (QT), and “Boring” Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA)

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Play Episode Listen Later Jan 31, 2024 64:41

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ -- Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week, Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro joins the show to discuss the latest in markets after Jerome Powell's FOMC conference. -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ethan Heisler on the 2024 Banking Sector

Simply Put

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 26, 2024 34:47

The banking sector managed to avoid the worst case scenarios that some predicted in March 2023. But with banks still adjusting to the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening during the last two years, they are now shifting their attention to managing prospective rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, the Fed's Quantitative Tightening, Reverse Repo facility, and the 2023 Bank Term Funding Program are all set to reach critical inflection points during the next few months. In this episode, Ethan Heisler, editor in chief of The Bank Treasury Newsletter, discusses how banks can best position themselves in this dynamic environment.

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Macro MATTers: The outlook for the Fed, Quantitative Tightening, Rates & Inflation

Podzept - with Deutsche Bank Research

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 22, 2024

In the latest Podzept episode from Deutsche Bank Research, Matthew Barnard sat down with Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) to discuss key topics surrounding the path forward for the Fed, including the magnitude and timing of interest rate cuts. Also discussed is the outlook for the Fed's balance sheet and QT.

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1.18.24 Remembering Dave Stevens; Quantitative Tightening Calculus; U.S. Economic Growth

Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2024 7:52

Today's podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products -- nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics -- unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. See how nCino can support a homeownership journey that your borrowers and your team will love at nCino.com.

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Fed Will End QT Early! Is QE Next?

The Bitcoin Layer

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2024 27:08

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Nik explains why the Fed has already started teasing an early end to Quantitative Tightening. In order to fully understand the Fed's motive, we dive into RRP (Reverse Repo) balances declining, define SOFR and why this rate can tell us about the health of financial plumbing, and forecast why the end of QT sets the table for QE in the next financial crisis. Nik also ends with the news that Bitcoin ETFs will begin trading on Thursday. New YouTube videos M/W/F — New Substack posts T/R/S The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit https://river.com and start buying today, or use http://River.com/TBL to get up to $100 when you signup and buy Bitcoin Subscribe to TBL on Substack: https://TheBitcoinLayer.substack.com Follow TBL on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/TheBitco... Follow TBL on Instagram: https://instagram.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebitcoinlayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Sign up for the free Monetary History course on @SaylorAcademy : http://sylr.org/MonetaryHistory Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Research Associate Joe Consorti's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball Block Height 824920 #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #FederalReserve #QuantitativeTightening #MonetaryPolicy #FinancialAnalysis #RRPbalances #SOFR #FinancialPlumbing #EconomicForecast #QE #FinancialCrisis #BitcoinETFs #MarketInsights #EconomicNews #InvestingTips #FinanceAnalysis #Shares #BitcoinFund #ETF #ETFs #BitcoinETF #GreyScale #GBTC #Binance #Coinbase #SEC #BlackRock #Fidelity #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #ETFPortfolio #ETFNews #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #Macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

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Joseph Wang: Bonds Will Be Crushed By Stocks As Fiscal Deficits Reignite Inflation

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2024 64:17 Very Popular

On today's episode, Former Fed trader, CIO at Monetary Macro & Author Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2024. Joseph walks through his stock market "crack up boom" thesis, the rise of fiscal dominance & the path ahead for bonds as the U.S runs record high deficits. We then deep dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook as well as broader financial plumbing and how it may impact markets in the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Today's interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Disinflation Is Transitory (07:48) Record Deficits Will Fuel A Stock Market Rally In 2024 (11:34) The Fed Will Cut Rates Three Times In 2024 (16:33) Why Isn't The Fed Pushing Back Against Market Pricing? (19:22) Fading The Recessionista's (23:25) The U.S Dollar (26:52) Quantitative Tightening (35:45) The Reverse Repo (46:32) Mortgages Role In The Fed's QT (54:39) Housing (01:01:10) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Rising Liquidity To Power Markets Higher Through 2025? | Michael Howell

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 24, 2023 109:01 Very Popular

2023, a year nearly everyone expected a recession, has instead seen impressive economic growth and the markets power to all-time highs. How did this happen? Especially as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates above 5% while conducting Quantitative Tightening? In a word: liquidity. Liquidity steadily rose throughout 2023 and, like an incoming ocean tide, rose all boats. How? Why? Where is it coming from? And if it's such a key driver of asset prices, where is it headed from here? To find out, we're going to have a very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital. Get Michael's book Capital Wars at https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872 Subscribe to his Substack at https://capitalwars.substack.com Or follow him on X/Twitter at @crossbordercap ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #liquidity #bullmarket #stocks2024

Brokeback Market

On The Tape

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2023 34:53 Very Popular

Dan Nathan, Danny Moses and Guy Adami discuss market sell-offs, 0DTE options and the state of the consumer through the lens of 'Buy Now, Pay Later" Key Insights from the Pod: The brief market sell-off (2:00) Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) Options (7:15) Overbought conditions (10:00) Interest rates/yield curve/Fed (read: Wall Street's Economic Doomsayers See US Recession Around Corner) (13:15) Danny rants on Quantitative Tightening & Quantitative Easing (21:00) Americans May Be Taking On Too Much Pay-Later ‘Phantom Debt' (Affirm, CarMax, WalMart) (25:20) What comes next for the market (30:30) Danny's NFL picks (33:20) — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

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#RafiFarber : #Silver Explodes Higher as #Fed Positions For End of Quantitative Tightening

Arcadia Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2023 1:00

#RafiFarber Update: Silver on Fire as Fed Prepares for Big Moves

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Rafi Farber: Silver Explodes Higher as Fed Positions For End of Quantitative Tightening

Arcadia Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2023 15:00

#RafiFarber - Silver Explodes Higher as Fed Positions For End of Quantitative Tightening The final pivot and money printing spree may not have officially begun yet, but like a figure skater about to launch into a triple lutz, the spur is now planted in the ice and the knee is bent for launch. The Federal Reserve is about to launch again, and Jay Powell has said as much. He just doesn't know how high he'll have to go, and he has no idea he's not going to stick the landing. He and his central bank are going to fall flat on their faces, and their liability unit, the dollar, with them. Gold and silver are sniffing this out, as gold has launched back towards its all time highs, and silver is leading the way, doubling gold's gains since Wednesday. We're on the road to the final printing round. And boy is it going to "fun," depending on how you want to define "fun." To find out more, click to watch the video now! - Sign up for a two week free trial of The End Game Investor and support Arcadia Economics at the same time! https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/arcadia To find out more about Fortuna Silver go to: https://fortunasilver.com/ - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

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Episode 133: Quantitative Tightening

Investing with GoodLife

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2023 46:27

If you have any questions or comments for Rohan and David, please feel free to send us an email at pod@goodlifehp.com. We'd love to hear from you! ***Don't forget to follow GoodLife Housing Partners on Twitter (@GoodLifeHP), Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/goodlifehp/), Youtube (https://www.youtube.com/@GoodLifeHP) Facebook, and LinkedIn! --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/goodlifehp/message

quantitative tightening

474: America's Eventual Recession Reckoning with Richard Duncan

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2023 51:03

Will higher interest rates and inflation persist for a decade? An upcoming recession always seems to be perpetually just around the corner. Learn when it should finally happen. Macroeconomist Richard Duncan joins me. I tell you a funny story about when he was GRE's first-ever guest in 2014. Currency is now being destroyed—called Quantitative Tightening. Negatives for future asset prices: QT, higher rates, student loan debt repayment, stronger dollar, asset prices already inflated, high personal asset-to-income ratios, higher oil prices, looming government shutdown. Positives for future asset prices: monetary stimulus hangover, high employment, CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, The AI Revolution, prospect of lower future inflation and interest rates. Richard provides his opinion and insight on today's real estate market. If inflation-adjusted credit growth is less than 2%, expect a recession. If it goes negative, expect a depression. Get a 50% Discount on Richard Duncan's MacroWatch video newsletter. Use the code “GRE” at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com Resources mentioned: Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/474 Get a 50% Discount on Richard Duncan's MacroWatch video newsletter. Use the code “GRE” at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold

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Dr. Claudio Borio & Joseph Wang on Fiscal Dominance, Financial Instability & the Boundaries Of Debt-Fueled Economic Growth

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2023 63:08

This episode is from another of Blockworks' shows Forward Guidance. We hope you enjoy & remember to go follow Forward Guidance: Spotify: spoti.fi/46LGuNR Apple: apple.co/3hXQu2F -- Today's interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023. -- Some of Borio's and the BIS' works mentioned in this interview: “Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf “The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf “International banking and financial market developments” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023 https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf “Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf “On money, debt, trust and central banking,” January 2019, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf “Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?” November 2021, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf “The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?” December 2012, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf __ Follow Bank For International Settlements on Twitter https://twitter.com/BIS_org Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy (09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk (12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy? (15:56) The Financial Cycle (24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes (36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening) (39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets (46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches" (50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System (56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bond Market Sell-Off Will Drive Equities Lower | Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic

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Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2023 58:39

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- On today's episode, two hedge fund veterans Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic, Co-Founders of 2 Gray Beards join the show for a discussion on the recent bond market sell-off, the journey towards recession island in 2024 & the path ahead for equity weakness depending on the U.S Treasury's QRA at the end of October. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/nickgiva1 Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: Logan's speech is worth reading: the “why” of this recent bond selloff matters importantly for the Fed: https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1711371085889864063 The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Michael Howell & Andy Constan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZwrE_uNcg -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:28) How To End An Inflation Cycle (06:43) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is Coming To Market (17:12) The Fed Will Be Happy With The Bond Market Sell-Off (19:43) Blockworks Research Ad (20:30) The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening (27:48) Debt & Deficits (35:11) Reacting To Geopolitical Uncertainty In Markets (41:33) Preparing For Act 4 In A Move To Recession Island (47:41) Inflation -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Walt Schmidt on MBS in the Context of the Fed's Balance Sheet Management

Simply Put

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2023 28:23

In addition to lowering its policy rate at the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve engaged in Quantitative Easing, meant to lower longer-term interest rates and stabilize the mortgage market. Now that the Fed is aiming to remove accommodation from the economy, it is quietly shrinking the amount of Treasury securities and MBS on its balance sheet while markets focus on the path of the fed funds rate. In this episode, FHN Financial's Walt Schmidt talks about how to understand MBS as the Fed continues its Quantitative Tightening and nears the end of its tightening cycle.

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Have We Truly Dodged A Recession This Year? | Adam Taggart

Wealthion

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2023 7:18

I'm Wealthion founder Adam Taggart, here with a brief explainer video for you on the topic of stealth liquidity. This topic is important because it helps explain why 2023 is unfolding, to the confusion of many analysts, to be the "Year Of The Recession That Wasn't" Heading into this year from the unrelenting beating for stocks and bonds that was 2022, the vast majority of economic forecasters predicted a recession was near-certain to arrive in the first quarter or two. The Fed had turned off the monetary stimulus spigots and was now pursuing interest rate hikes and Quantitative Tightening with an aggression rarely seen before in history. The fast rising cost of capital, plus elevated input costs and higher wages from raging inflation, were squeezing corporate profits. Layoffs surged. Corporate bankruptcies started spiking to levels not seen since 2010. And then the banking system started stumbling – seeing more US bank failures as measured by market cap than in the Global Financial Crisis – forcing banks to tighten lending standards. And on top of that, the US government faced a debt ceiling showdown, which required the US Treasury to drain its general account to keep government operations funded until a deal was struck – which would then suck over a $trillion in capital out of the economy as new Treasury bonds got sold to refill the TGA's coffers. And on top of that, the Feds higher interest rates caused a surge in interest expense on the federal debt, now passing over $1 trillion for the fiscal year. All of these factors made a compelling, practically overwhelming case for reduced systemic liquidity in 2023. For well over a decade, the markets and the economy had become dependent on the Federal Reserve's trillions of dollars worth of QE & rock-bottom interest rates. And then during the pandemic, a series of new fiscal stimulus packages and forbearance programs added to the addiction. Without those, the thinking went, the economy would contract in 2023, companies would lay off workers in larger numbers, and the financial and housing markets would correct materially. But something funny happened on the road to this widely-expected recession. The recession forgot to show up. Why? In this video, we think we might just have the answer. ************************************************* IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

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The Fed's Latest Bump: Higher-For-Longer Will Tighten Squeeze On Bank Profits

Curinos (F)insights

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2023 9:36

Peter Serene, Managing Director of commercial at Curinos, explains how this week's 25bp rate increase will reprice more deposits and further narrow NIM in both retail and commercial.Read the Perspective: https://curinos.com/our-insights/curinos-perspective-fed-hikes-again-banks-dig-in-higher-for-longer/Rate and subscribe! | Learn more at curinos.com | Questions or feedback? Email us at finsights@curinos.com

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Central Banks Fight Inflation, China Battles Deflation | Nick Glinsman