Podcasts about Quantitative tightening

La liquidità sta finendo. Le banche americane stanno bussando alla Federal Reserve per chiedere contanti d'emergenza, mentre il sistema inizia a scricchiolare. La Standing Repo Facility è esplosa ai massimi di sempre, segnalando un allarme che ricorda da vicino il 2008. Il problema? Dopo mesi di Quantitative Tightening, la “benzina” nei tubi finanziari si è esaurita: il Tesoro USA sta risucchiando miliardi dal sistema con il suo conto TGA, il tasso SOFR è schizzato oltre il limite imposto dalla Fed e le riserve bancarie sono al minimo. Un segnale chiaro che il sistema è sotto stress, e che presto potremmo assistere a un “QE silenzioso” per evitare il collasso. In questo video spiego come funziona davvero il meccanismo della liquidità, perché le banche stanno finendo i soldi e cosa significa tutto questo per dollaro, inflazione e mercati globali.

Danielle DiMartino Booth exposes how the Fed is playing politics with monetary policy. From the government shutdown to a frozen housing market and an auto credit crunch, the system is cracking.#gold #federalreserve #qe ---------------------Thank you to our sponsor: First Majestic SilverMake sure to pay them a visit: https://www.firstmajestic.com/---------------------

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe UN is moving forward with climate agenda, they are now mobilizing 1.3 trillion annually to push the agenda. Trump has pressuring the Fed to lower rates has now trapped them in halting tightening and they are now going to begin printing. This will push Bitcoin and gold higher. The [DS] is using their old playbook to regain control and leverage. They lost this in 2024 and the people are awake and they can see clearly. They are now using social media to counter this by dividing the movement, we are witnessing a psyop by the [DS], the playbook is known. They need MAGA divided so they can use this division during the midterms, they will use antifa to riot near the polling areas to keep voters away. The [DS] is trying everything to take back control and the midterms is the goal. Trump knows this, countermeasures being deployed.   Economy https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1985604896020717990 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/onechancefreedm/status/1985504577332908211  off the next morning. It's the same cash cycling through, you can't add those daily totals together. Sudden jumps like this is usually timing noise, month end balance sheet adjustments, bill settlements, corporate cash flows. Sometimes the RRP rate just looks slightly better than holding short term bills, and when that happens, money temporarily flows back into the Fed's vault. It's not QE, it's not a bailout, and it's not printing. Let's talk about what comes next. The Fed just cut rates twice and announced it's ending Quantitative Tightening on December 1. Starting then, it'll reinvest all maturing principal into short term Treasury bills, a quiet but major shift. That move stops the drain from QT and starts slowly feeding liquidity back into the system while shortening the duration of the Fed's holdings. In other words, they're pivoting from shrinking to steady, easing the pressure without calling it stimulus. So this little RRP bump is really just the market adjusting before the pivot, cash searching for a temporary home before the Fed starts quietly adding liquidity again through bill reinvestments. If reverse repo usage keeps climbing for weeks, that's when to pay attention. It could mean collateral scarcity or reserves tightening faster than the Fed wants. But right now, it's just the pipes humming, a short term ripple ahead of a much bigger shift in how liquidity will reenter the system. https://twitter.com/AlexMasonCrypto/status/1985445575634911511 Political/Rights Gov. JB Pritzker Called Out After Illegal Alien Allegedly Kills GOP Official, His Wife: ‘How Many More Have to Die?' Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D), a fierce defender of sanctuary policies, is getting called out as an illegal alien is accused of killing a local elected Republican official and his wife last week.  34-year-old illegal alien Edwin Pacheco-Meza of Honduras was driving a van on Oct. 24 when he crossed the center lane and struck 71-year-old Michael Clayton and his wife, 66-year-old Gail Clayton — killing them instantly. Michael Clayton was a Republican elected official who served on the Coles County Board. Pacheco-Meza, who crossed the southern border as an unknown got-away,

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at buying opportunities approaching year-end, as U.S. trade policy and the Fed find middle ground. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing recent macro events and third quarter earnings results.It's Monday, November 3rd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week marked the passage of two key macro events: the meeting on trade between Presidents Trump and Xi and the October Fed meeting. On the trade front, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China by 10 percent and delay newly proposed tech export controls for a year. In exchange, China agreed to pause its proposed export controls on rare earths, and resume soybean purchases while cracking down on fentanyl. This is a major positive relative to how developments could have gone following the sharp escalation a few weeks ago, and markets have responded accordingly.With respect to the Fed meeting, Powell suggested policy is not on a preset course which took the bond market probability of a December rate cut down from 92 percent before the meeting to 68 percent currently. It also led to some modest consolidation in equity prices while breadth remained very weak. In my view, the market is saying that if growth holds up but the Fed only cuts rates modestly, leadership is likely to remain narrow and up the quality curve.Over the next 6 to 12 months, we think moderate weakness in lagging labor data, and a stronger than expected earnings backdrop ultimately sets the stage for a broadening in market leadership. However, we are also respectful of the signals the markets are sending in the near term. This means it's still too early to press the small cap/low quality/deep cyclical rotation trade until the Fed shows a clear willingness to get ahead of the curve. Perhaps just as important for markets was the Fed's decision to end Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in December.Recently, Jay Powell has acknowledged the potential for rising stress in the funding markets and indicated the Fed could end QT sooner rather than later. Over the past month, expectations for the timing of this QT termination ranged from immediately to as late as February. Powell seemed to split the difference at last week's meeting and this could be viewed as disappointing to some market participants.In order to monitor this development, I will be watching how short-term funding markets behave. Specifically, overnight repo usage has been on the rise and if that continues along with the widening spreads between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and fed funds, I believe equity markets are likely to trade poorly, especially in some of the more speculative areas. In short, we think higher quality areas of the market are likely to continue to outperform until this dynamic is settled.Meanwhile, earnings season is in full swing and the real standout has been the upside in revenue surprises, which is currently more than double the historical run-rate. We think this could provide further support that our rolling recovery thesis is under way which leads to much better earnings growth than most are expecting.Bottom line, we are gaining more confidence in our core view that a new bull market began in April with the end of the rolling recession and the beginning of a new cycle. This means higher and broader earnings growth in 2026 and a potentially different leadership in the equity market. The full broadening out to lower quality, smaller capitalization stocks is being held back by a Fed that continues to fight inflation; perhaps not realizing how much the private economy and average consumer needs lower rates for this rolling recovery to fully blossom. Last week's Fed meeting could be disappointing in that regard in the short run for equity markets. As a result, stay up the quality curve until we get more clarity on the timing of a more dovish path by the Fed and look for stress in funding markets as a possible buying opportunity into year end.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

La Fed redevient gentille, le shutdown bat tous les records, Trump et Xi font semblant de s'aimer, et tout le monde continue de surfer la vague comme si elle ne devait jamais retomber. Mais attention : entre euphorie, valorisations délirantes et signaux de surchauffe, on n'est peut-être pas si loin du point de rupture. Dans cet épisode : Fin du Quantitative Tightening (et pourquoi c'est un vrai game changer) La Fed, toujours en mode “je baisse, mais pas trop vite” Les marchés qui montent malgré tout Et le cas Palantir, la boîte qui défie la gravité (jusqu'à quand ?)

The Fed cut rates again, but it's not the cut that moved markets. Let's break down Powell's latest comments, the end of quantitative tightening, and what it all means for traders heading into December.Register for the Market Mastery Workshophttps://training.tieronetrading.com/market-mastery-1761503852031Your Trading Coach - Akil

This episode of the Unusual Whales Pod was recorded Live on October 29th, 2025. Nicholas hosts a panel of macroeconomic experts and investors to discuss the economy's continued contradictions: growth hasn't collapsed, yet inflation refuses to bow out, and the labor market is showing patches of fatigue. All this while the government shutdown is delaying key data releases, leaving the Fed to fly partially blind. Global friction persists from trade tensions to energy supply jitters, and the panel breaks down each of these topics in turn!Panel:Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Thelastbearstanding https://twitter.com/LastBearStandngJonny Matthews https://x.com/super_macroMartin Pelletier https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIOHosted by: Nicholas FNS: https://twitter.com/NicholasFNSUnusual Whales: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesThis Pod is not financial advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do research before any trade. Do not use this information for financial decisions or for investing. Unusual Social Media:Discord: https://discord.com/invite/unusualwhalesFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/unusualwhalesInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/unusualwhales/Reddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@unusual_whalesTwitter: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/unusualwhales/Merch: https://unusual-whales.creator-spring.com/**Disclaimer:Any content referenced in the video or on Unusual Whales are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input.

The Fed cut interest rates by a widely expected 25bps. What wasn't as expected were two dissents from Fed governors. Kevin Hincks explains what makes the development particularly interesting. He also talks about the FOMC's plans to end quantitative tightening and how it offers a lift to the stock market ahead.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this conversation, Jon Sanchez and Jason Gaunt discuss the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and its implications for the market. They analyze the Fed's balance sheet, the impact of AI on major tech companies like Google and Microsoft, and the earnings reports from these companies.The discussion highlights the volatility in the market following the Fed's announcements and the ongoing influence of AI technology on corporate strategies and financial performance. Chapters00:00 The Fed's Interest Rate Decision02:26 Market Reactions and Algorithmic Trading05:25 Understanding the Fed's Balance Sheet08:18 Quantitative Tightening and Its Implications10:55 Earnings Reports and Market Volatility12:52 The Future of Interest Rates and Economic Indicators23:57 Financial Projections and Market Dynamics25:10 Microsoft's Investment in AI and Its Implications26:36 Earnings Reports: Google and Microsoft37:50 Meta's Performance and Market Reactions

Die Kryptologen Lukas Leys und Alex Kirchmaier besprechen in dieser Folge diese Themen:

Jerome Powell just hinted at the END of quantitative tightening — and the crypto market is ready to explode! In this episode, we'll break down how the Fed's latest signal could spark a mega rally across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and top altcoins like Chainlink, Solana, and XRP.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just hinted that the Fed may soon pause its balance-sheet runoff — a potential shift that could reshape market liquidity and investor sentiment. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down: * Why the Fed may pause QT — and what it signals about financial conditions. * How ending balance-sheet runoff affects liquidity, yields, and asset prices. * What history tells us about QT pauses and subsequent market rallies. * Why the Fed's portfolio composition (Treasuries vs. MBS) still matters for inflation and housing. * Portfolio tactics if the liquidity tide begins to turn. 0:19 - Markets' Rally on Powell QT Comments 4:16 - Speculation Continues on Wall St 8:40 - Childhood Bedtimes & Digital Devices 14:36 Is Quantitative Tightening About to End? 16:55 - What is the Result of Easing QT? 19:37 - Where's the Risk: Private Credit/Equity 21:12 - The Fed's Moral Hazard & History of Bailouts 26:01 - How Would a Failure of FNMA Loans Affect the Economy? 28:34 - What Led to the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis 32:13 - The Bigger Risk of Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Deals 35:45 - The Last Stages of Asset Development 40:11 - IRS Rules Changes for Roths 45:12 - Comming Attractions Whether the Fed is stabilizing the system or setting up the next round of excess — it's a key inflection point investors can't ignore.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just hinted that the Fed may soon pause its balance-sheet runoff — a potential shift that could reshape market liquidity and investor sentiment. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down: * Why the Fed may pause QT — and what it signals about financial conditions. * How ending balance-sheet runoff affects liquidity, yields, and asset prices. * What history tells us about QT pauses and subsequent market rallies. * Why the Fed's portfolio composition (Treasuries vs. MBS) still matters for inflation and housing. * Portfolio tactics if the liquidity tide begins to turn. 0:19 - Markets' Rally on Powell QT Comments 4:16 - Speculation Continues on Wall St 8:40 - Childhood Bedtimes & Digital Devices 14:36 Is Quantitative Tightening About to End? 16:55 - What is the Result of Easing QT? 19:37 - Where's the Risk: Private Credit/Equity 21:12 - The Fed's Moral Hazard & History of Bailouts 26:01 - How Would a Failure of FNMA Loans Affect the Economy? 28:34 - What Led to the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis 32:13 - The Bigger Risk of Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Deals 35:45 - The Last Stages of Asset Development 40:11 - IRS Rules Changes for Roths 45:12 - Comming Attractions   Whether the Fed is stabilizing the system or setting up the next round of excess — it's a key inflection point investors can't ignore.

Peter Schiff critiques the Fed's latest rate cuts, discusses inflationary pressures, and highlights the looming housing affordability crisis.This episode is sponsored by Hims. Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the Federal Reserve's latest rate cuts, discussing the implications of these policy decisions on the economy and inflation. With a sharp critique of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements, Schiff highlights the potential risks to economic stability and the growing divergence of opinions within the Fed. He explores the impact of tariffs on inflation, the ongoing housing affordability crisis, and the dangers of cutting rates amidst record-high asset prices. Schiff's insights underscore the fallacy of the Fed's mandates and the dire consequences of monetary policy missteps, positioning him as a critical voice amid economic uncertainty. Tune in for a thought-provoking analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and exposes the reality behind the Fed's actions.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:58 Fed Rate Announcement and Market Expectations02:00 Press Conference Highlights and Powell's Statements10:03 Discussion on Tariffs and Inflation19:27 Threats to Fed Independence and Political Influence21:38 Divergence of Opinions within the Fed30:25 Debating Interest Rates and Inflation31:12 The Fed's Impossible Mandates33:42 Unemployment Rate Realities35:09 Quantitative Tightening and Market Reactions37:33 Housing Affordability Crisis40:59 Government Policies and Market Solutions46:42 Stock Market and Gold Predictions52:59 Investment Strategies and Final ThoughtsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#FedPolicy #InterestRates #InflationOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech marks a major pivot at the Federal Reserve. Peter Schiff explains how political pressure from the Trump administration has forced Powell's hand, why stagflation is now undeniable, and what this means for gold, the dollar, and the future of the U.S. economy.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free ebook “Navigating Global Trade: 3 Insights for Leaders” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this Sunday Night Live edition of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter compares Powell's capitulation to the “mind right” scene in Cool Hand Luke, warns about the Fed's coming return to QE, and exposes the dangerous precedent of the U.S. government seizing a 10% stake in Intel. Schiff lays out why gold, silver, and foreign stocks are outperforming, and why the next phase of the crisis will be even more severe.00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks02:15 Powell's Jackson Hole Speech: A Sober Assessment06:48 Trump's Pressure and Powell's “Mind Right” Moment12:02 Comparing Trump and Biden Economies18:37 Stagflation Confirmed: Weak Growth, Stronger Inflation24:10 Fed Policy, Employment Risks, and Inflation Mandate29:44 The End of Inflation Averaging at 2%36:50 Rate Cuts, Quantitative Tightening, and QE Ahead44:15 Market Reactions: Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar51:28 Gold and Silver Surge vs. Bitcoin's Underperformance58:44 Mining Stocks: GDX and GDXJ Leading 2025 Returns01:05:37 Foreign Stocks and the Great Rotation Out of U.S. Equities01:12:52 Intel's 10% Government Stake and Rising Corporatism01:20:46 Investment Strategy: Gold, Mining, and Foreign Markets01:28:14 Conclusion and Schiff Sovereign UpdateFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#federalreserve #stagflation #gold #inflation #dollarcollapse #economyOur Sponsors:* Check out Boll & Branch: https://bollandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

A few hours ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) as well as the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program.And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market's reaction (so far) has been fairly negative, with the S&P dropping in the red over the past hour.And I'm also happy to announce that Fed-watcher Axel Merk is joining us again to deliver his expert reaction to the Fed's latest guidance as well as take your questions live.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #inflation #interestrates

In this episode of SparX, we dive deep into the complexities of the global economy, India's growth trajectory, and the impact of Trump's return to power. Neelkanth Mishra breaks down why forecasting the economy is as tough as predicting the weather, how crowd behavior shapes policy, and why AI is disrupting global markets.We discuss India's economic challenges—monetary tightening, regulatory hurdles, and geopolitical shifts—while exploring potential solutions for achieving 7%+ growth. Are global markets headed for a crisis? How will AI reshape economic structures? And can India leverage this disruption to its advantage?Resource List - US President Trump and Ukraine President Zelensky - https://youtu.be/ajxSWocbye8?feature=shared Nixon and Kissinger meeting Indira Gandhi - https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve07/d135 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/henry-kissinger-indira-gandhi-when-henry-kissinger-called-indira-gandhi-a-b-h-indians-bastards-4619944 The Great Transformation, book by Odd Arne Westad and Jian Chen - https://amzn.in/d/0QllE5P India's Quantitative Tightening by Neelkanth Mishra - https://tessellatum.in/?p=478 What is the Overton Window? - https://www.mackinac.org/OvertonWindow More on Mrs. Watanabe - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mrs._Watanabe https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/rise-mrs-watanabe-how-japanese-housewives-became-force-moenga-alex-akg6f What is fiscal deficit? - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/definition/fiscal-deficit?from=mdr What is base money injection? - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/monetarybase.asp#:~:text=The%20money%20that%20they%20provide,of%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20System. What is loan deposit ratio? - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/loan-to-deposit-ratio.asp#:~:text=The%20loan%2Dto%2Ddeposit%20ratio%20(LDR)%20helps%20you,expressing%20it%20as%20a%20percentage.

An hour ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) but slowing the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program.And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market's reaction (so far) has been positive.My bullet-point notes to Powell's conference are below.And I'm also happy to announce that Fed-watcher Axel Merk is joining us again to deliver his expert reaction to the Fed's latest guidance as well as take your questions live.

Crypto News: Bitcoin and Stock Market rally on news of Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating Quantitative Tightening is ramping do. XRP Futures and Solana Futures ETF launching tomorrow. New updates in SEC Ripple Case.Show Sponsor -⭐️ Learn about BitGo, one of the top crypto custodians - https://www.bitgo.com/ 

UCLA issues its first "Recession Watch" since the 1950's as the media hype ramps up ("If it bleeds, it leads.") Fed meeting preview: No rate cut expectations, but comments regarding Quantitative Tightening will be key for markets. Tuesday's sell off part of the process of markets' finding a bottom. Bonds continue to provide a hedge against stocks. Lance and Danny discuss Lance's demise and how to provide important instructions for the family. Is the market correction a foreshadowing of Recession? The CNBC Fed Survey hikes expectations of Recession: Cannot have higher inflation and Recession; slower economic growth results in lower inflation. Reduction of government spending will reduce economic activity. The genesis of the current banking system. Lance discusses bonds and how debt issuance works, and the alleged "death" of the Dollar. SEG-1: UCLA Issues Recession Watch SEG-2a: I'm Sorry I'm Dead SEG-2b: Recession or Economic Slowdown? SEG-3: CNBC Survey - Hiking Recession Expectations SEG-4: How Debt Issuance Works Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhlr3L6iqV8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Retail Investor Buys The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-investor-buys-the-dip-despite-bearish-sentiment/ "Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/stupidity-and-the-5-laws-not-to-follow/ "Sell Off Accelerates As Recession Fears Emerge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sell-off-accelerates-as-recession-fears-emerge/ “Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025 https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Sloppy Trading Ahead," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuaWsLFLRnQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Retail Investors Buy The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJJkzLT34qA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3245s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession2025 #EconomicSlowdown #StockMarketTrends #FedPolicy #MarketRally #MarketSellOff #KeyResistance #200DMA #MarketCorrection #SloppyTrading #MarketBottom #BuyTheDip #StockMarketNews #RetailInvesting #MarketSentiment #InvestingStrategy #InvestingMistakes #FinancialWisdom #KeyResistance #200DMA #Recession #MovingAverage #ReduceRisk #TakeProfits #MarketCorrection #Recession #MovingAverage #ReduceRisk #TakeProfits #Recession2025 #StockMarketCrash #EconomicOutlook #FedRateCuts #WealthManagement #FinanceTalk #InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

UCLA issues its first "Recession Watch" since the 1950's as the media hype ramps up ("If it bleeds, it leads.") Fed meeting preview: No rate cut expectations, but comments regarding Quantitative Tightening will be key for markets. Tuesday's sell off part of the process of markets' finding a bottom. Bonds continue to provide a hedge against stocks. Lance and Danny discuss Lance's demise and how to provide important instructions for the family. Is the market correction a foreshadowing of Recession? The CNBC Fed Survey hikes expectations of Recession: Cannot have higher inflation and Recession; slower economic growth results in lower inflation. Reduction of government spending will reduce economic activity. The genesis of the current banking system. Lance discusses bonds and how debt issuance works, and the alleged "death" of the Dollar. SEG-1: UCLA Issues Recession Watch SEG-2a: I'm Sorry I'm Dead SEG-2b: Recession or Economic Slowdown? SEG-3: CNBC Survey - Hiking Recession Expectations SEG-4: How Debt Issuance Works Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhlr3L6iqV8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Retail Investor Buys The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-investor-buys-the-dip-despite-bearish-sentiment/ "Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/stupidity-and-the-5-laws-not-to-follow/ "Sell Off Accelerates As Recession Fears Emerge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sell-off-accelerates-as-recession-fears-emerge/ “Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025 https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Sloppy Trading Ahead," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuaWsLFLRnQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Retail Investors Buy The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJJkzLT34qA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3245s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession2025 #EconomicSlowdown #StockMarketTrends #FedPolicy #MarketRally #MarketSellOff #KeyResistance #200DMA #MarketCorrection #SloppyTrading #MarketBottom  #BuyTheDip #StockMarketNews #RetailInvesting #MarketSentiment #InvestingStrategy #InvestingMistakes #FinancialWisdom #KeyResistance #200DMA #Recession #MovingAverage #ReduceRisk #TakeProfits #MarketCorrection #Recession #MovingAverage #ReduceRisk #TakeProfits #Recession2025 #StockMarketCrash #EconomicOutlook #FedRateCuts #WealthManagement #FinanceTalk #InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

► If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!► More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinanceThe End

This podcast segment explores the latest bond market trends, the Fed's stance on quantitative tightening, and key economic indicators—including PMI and inflation data—driving interest rate movements.-----------------------------------------------------Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0 (10:01) Skale Ad (10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio (17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies (25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (34:51) Skale Ad (35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't) (38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries (44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates (52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts (01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment (01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed's latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election's impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) FOMC Takeaways (02:48) Is Policy Restrictive? (07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced? (09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What (12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy (15:40) Quantitative Tightening (18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do (22:20) Ledger Ad (23:05) The Labor Market (26:33) Election Impact On The Fed (31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation? (35:22) Fiscal Deficits (42:51) Asset Allocation (44:42) Credit Spreads (46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy (49:58) F*ck Valuations (52:11) Follow Bob's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jurrien: https://x.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market? (04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique? (07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates (09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity (12:39) Election Impact on Markets (15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields (22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets (26:39) Earnings vs Valuation (34:52) Ledger Ad (35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing? (37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk (42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges (45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates (49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter? (56:42) Learn More About Jurrien __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by cooling the economy with its aggressive "higher for longer" interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, the US has managed to avoid recession. Consumer spending has held up, largely due to the "strong" jobs market. But is that likely to remain the case going forward? And if not, if unemployment starts to rise significantly, what should we expect? Mass layoffs? A recession? A correction in the financial markets or home prices? Or none of these? To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler. He's created the HOPE framework, which provides a way for us to track recession risk, and gives us the ability to project what's likely to happen next for the economy. Michael's forecast is surprisingly nuanced and contains elements both bulls & bears should heed. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #employment #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Futures are pointing lower this morning, which is no surprise. After a multi-weeks' long run in the markets, investors today will likely re-test the 20-DMA in a repeat performance of market activity we saw back in November thru February. The current environment could run from July through August, migrating higher without any catalyst. This week's FOMC Meeting and CPI Inflation data could turn markets sharply lower, because the market is predicated on the Fed cutting rates. We're expecting the Fed to maintain the status quo of staying on track to cut rates later in the year, and a reversal of Quantitative Tightening. We're urging a continuation of risk management in your portfolios. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8ffEG0Bmas&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #QuantitativeTightening #PortfolioRebalancing #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

At a drinks party in around 2011 or 2012, I had the ear of Andrew Feldman, aka Baron Feldman of Elstree, former Chairman of the Conservative Party—he of “swivel-eyed loons” fame, though he never actually said that. (Andrew is a friend, by the way.)“Tell George Osborne to buy back the gold Gordon Brown sold,” I advised.“At these prices?” smiled Andrew with a mix of incredulity, amusement, and polite condescension.“Yes!” I said. “It might be good publicity, even. Or do it secretly, and announce it afterward. The important thing is getting the gold back. We will need it at some point. Why not just quantitatively ease the money and buy it back? You're doing that and buying bonds.”Andrew laughed at my joke, which wasn't a joke, and then wandered off in search of someone more sane to talk to.Given the government has this extraordinary power to create money out of nothing, why don't they just print money and buy hard assets with it?Park that thought for a moment.A couple of months ago, I was at Liz Truss's book launch—aren't you impressed with all this name-dropping?—and I ran into Mark Littlewood, former director of the IEA and now of PopCon. I started bending his ear about the media's failure to report on the Bank of England and how it had shafted Truss with its advanced notice of gilt sales, Quantitative Tightening, which began the day before Kwasi Kwarteng's budget and led to a collapse in the gilt market, the blame for which was then left at Kwasi Kwarteng's doorstep. Mark nodded. “Do you think I don't know?” said Liz.“I would love to be able to grill Andrew Bailey in public,” I said. “Or just ask him one question with people watching. I know exactly what I'd ask him.”“What?” said Mark.“If the Bank of England can print money, why do we need taxes?”Mark laughed and, thinking I was asking him that question, replied, “Money illusion.”Charlie Morris is one of my closest mates and he writes what I think is one of the best investment newsletters out there, in fact a suite of them. I urge you to sign up for a free trial.Money illusion is one of those economic terms that is pretty self-explanatory, but here is an example. Most of know a hundred pounds does not buy you today what it bought you ten years ago, but we still think in terms of past prices. (Old people do this more, for obvious reasons). A worker might feel great with a 5% raise, but if inflation is 7%, he is actually earning less than before. This has been an ongoing process for decades with the result that, in real terms, wages are lower.Here's the Wikipedia definition (edited by me):In economics, money illusion, or price illusion, is a cognitive bias where money is thought of in nominal, rather than real, terms. In other words, the face value (nominal value) of money is mistaken for its purchasing power (real value) at a previous point in time. The term was coined by Irving Fisher in Stabilizing the Dollar, and popularized by John Maynard Keynes in the early twentieth century. Fisher also wrote a book on the subject, The Money Illusion, in 1928.Mark and I both doubted that Bailey would give that as the answer, even if he thought it, which we doubted he would. If governments started printing money and buying assets, many would start questioning money, and faith in fiat might quickly evaporate. If governments worldwide started doing it (eg Britain prints money and starts buying land in France) you are in race-to-the-bottom territory. It would be a race to the bottom for fiat currency.Even if Bailey thought money illusion was the answer, he certainly wouldn't say it because that in itself undermines fiat.Modern money has nominal value, but not intrinsic value. It relies on illusion (and the law) to function. The more you debase it, the less likely that illusion is to hold. Maybe money delusion is more accurate. Obviously, the backing of the law makes a great difference, as does the fact that taxes must be collected in this money, but, boy, is the system vulnerable. Illusions can last a long time. But when they shatter, they shatter very quickly, and then there is nothing.I don't say the system will pop. It has been going on for a long time. But I do observe that it very easily could.It's why I recommend both gold and bitcoin. Both are money in and of themselves: one is the product of nature, the other the product of extraordinary amounts of computer power. Neither relies on anyone else.If you liked this article, please tell a friend.If you are interested in buying gold, check out my recent report. I have a feeling it is going to come in very handy.My recommended bullion dealer is the Pure Gold Company.Life After the State - Why We Don't Need Government (2013), my first book, is now back in print - with the audiobook here: Audible UK, Audible US, Apple Books. I recommend the audiobook ;)And if you are in the Scottish neck of the woods this August, look out for me at the Edinburgh Fringe. I'll be performing one of my “lectures with funny bits”. This one is all about the history of mining. As always, I shall be delivering it at Panmure House, where Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations. It's at 2pm most afternoons. You can get tickets here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory. Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' era But despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, economic growth remains robust, inflation is lower but is proving sticky, unemployment remains under 4%, and the stock market is at all time highs. In short, the Fed's aggressively restrictive policies haven't cooled things down much. They've been so ineffective that even the Wall Street Journal is asking "Do interest rates really matter anymore?" To find out, we have the great fortune of speaking today with perhaps the world's foremost living expert on interest rates, James Grant, founder and editor of the highly-respected market journal Grant's Interest Rate Observer. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #interestrates #inflation #recession

Why is the US economy poised for a strong second half of the year, despite slowing GDP growth? Our Chief US Economist points to population growth, housing demand and anticipated Fed rate cuts. ----- Transcript -----Ellen Zentner: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Economist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss our mid-year outlook for the US economy. As we near the midpoint of this year, we refresh our outlook for the second half of the year. In our base case, the US economy remains strong, but US GDP growth is slowing, and slowing from 3.1 percent on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis last year, to 2.1 percent this year and in 2025.Okay, so what's behind the continued strength? Well, it's something we've been intensely following this year. Faster immigration and population growth will continue to expand the labor supply and support economic activity, and all without increasing inflationary pressures. So, whereas the mid-pandemic labor market was characterized by persistent shortage of labor, the supply of labor is now increasing, and we think will outstrip demand this year.This will drive the unemployment rate higher, which we expect will end this year half a point above 2023 at 4.2 per cent and rise further to 4.5 per cent in 2025. And wage gains should moderate further as the unemployment rate rises. We think consumer activity will continue to slow this year and into 2025 as that cooling labor market weighs on growth in real disposable income and elevated interest rates keep borrowing costs high.Tight lending standards also limit credit availability. That said, we do think lower rates are on the horizon, and this should spur a pickup in housing demand and goods spending around the middle of next year. In fact, after substantial reflation numbers in the first quarter of 2024, we expect lower inflation numbers ahead. We've already seen that in the April data, as rents, goods, and services prices decelerate. The Fed has held the policy rate steady at a range of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent since July 2023, and we expect it will deliver the first quarter point cut in September this year. In total, we expect three quarter point cuts this year, and four more by the middle of next year, which lowers the policy rate to around 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter this year to about 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025. But even before rate cuts, the Fed has announced it will start phasing out Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in June. We expect QT to end around March 2025, when the Fed's balance sheet is a little above 3 trillion.Finally, let's talk about housing. We expect continued growth in residential investment through 2025, with a rapid rise in housing starts, solid new home sales, and a bit more turnover in existing home sales as mortgage rates fall. Home building and increased brokerage commissions should keep residential investment on the boil, posting a 4.6 per cent rise on a 4th quarter over 4th quarter basis this year and 3.2 per cent in 2025. Our residential investment forecasts are a good deal stronger than we expected in the year ahead outlook we published last November. Booming first quarter growth probably reflected a combination of the warm winter and the temporary downswing in mortgage rates. We don't expect the same outperformance later in the year. But at the same time, housing demand is greater than we had anticipated amid that faster population growth. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Roberto Perli is the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and a senior leader in the New York Fed's Markets Group. In his role, Roberto is responsible for implementing monetary policy at the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Roberto is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about a recent speech he made titled, *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead.* Specifically, David and Roberto discuss the Fed's recent balance sheet activities, the basics and functionality of the overnight reverse repo facility, the importance of slowing down the Fed's balance sheet runoff, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Roberto's NY Fed profile Roberto's Twitter: @R_Perli   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead* - Remarks by Roberto Perli at the 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:49) – Breaking Down the Role of SOMA Manager   (00:08:43) – Recapping the Fed's Balance Sheet Activities   (00:11:04) – How to Think About Quantitative Tightening   (00:13:19) – Breaking Down the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility   (00:20:42) – Slowing Down the Runoff and the Future of QT   (00:26:48) – How to Determine the Critical Level of Reserves   (00:33:03) – The Structural Demand for Bank Reserves Over Time   (00:38:55) – The Advantages of the Floor Operating System   (00:47:49) – Reserve Supply Focus Moving Forward   (00:49:44) – Outro

#LondonCalling: Nobody knows what quantitative tightening will bring..  @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion https://www.wsj.com/articles/quantitative-tightening-becomes-a-trap-for-the-fed-inflation-reserve-requirements-powell-5c8cd332 1913 Wilson Opening Day

Join Market Wrap's Moe and Javaid Ansari this week as they discuss the changes in Quantitative Tightening and what it means for the market.

News

Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected. Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month. Above and beyond that, Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is proving more stubborn to tame than the Fed hoped at the start of the year, and that getting it down sustainably to the Fed's 2% target will "take longer than previously expected". This essentially is admitting that interest rates will stay hike for EVEN longer. In this video, Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to provide an immediate reaction to the Fed's guidance and take live Q&A from the viewing audience. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #interestrates #inflation #federalreserve

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PWoA4P A down day in both stocks and bonds today following a disappointment on CPI numbers by one tenth on both Headline and Core, that sent the Dow down XXX points and the 10-year bond yield up .18XXbps. We expected .3% on both and got .4% instead to cause todays action, so on one hand a risk off day as higher rates were priced in on yields, and on the other, the difference of a tenth is far from dramatic in and of itself. I do believe the Federal Reserve is an independent institution adhering to its employment and price stability mandates. I also believe they are aware of the Fiscal paradigm as well however (not driven by, but aware). Do I think a $2T budget deficit when we are at full employment with interest expense now accounting for 17% of tax revenue when our average termed government debt interest rate is only at 3.3% is on their radar in terms of Quantitative Tightening, yes I do. They can't go until inflation gives them the OK sign (or gets close enough), but they are ready to reduce rates later this year as they've telegraphed, and from the Fed minutes released just today my point on reducing QT will come in to play sooner than later. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This Flashback Friday is from episode 958, published last February 13, 2018. Jason Hartman kicks off the show today asking his ultimate question: compared to what? It's a question that will serve you well in all aspects of your life and will guide you down the right path. He also wants to invite you to join him on any of his adventures scheduled for this year to make your vacation planning even easier. Then Jason wraps up his interview with Macro Watch's Richard Duncan. The two tackle the topic of rising interest rates, better uses for going into further debt than giving it to tax reform, how the Fed will react to a tanking stock market, and what we can expect to see over the next few years. #FlashbackFriday #RealEstateInvesting #FinancialIndependence #InvestmentTips #WealthCreation #EconomicAnalysis #TaxReform #GovernmentInvestment #FiscalPolicy #QuantitativeTightening #StockMarketVolatility #PropertyInvestment #GlobalEconomy #RichardDuncanEconomics Key Takeaways: Jason editorial 4:06 Always view things in perspective, and remember, COMPARED TO WHAT? 6:45 Meeting fellow investors is crucial to success 8:12 Why doesn't Jason want you to plan any vacations this year? 12:07 Over Thanksgiving, while re-reading The Art of the Deal, Jason realized that Trump is a New York liberal Richard Duncan Interview 14:52 What people don't realize about interest rates "People buy houses on a payment, not a price" 16:04 What the Fed will do if the market drops 10% and what else will happen if it drops 20% 19:23 What Richard wishes the government had done with the $1 trillion in new deficits that will occur from the new tax reform 23:57 Why Richard thinks the government can invest as wisely as private companies 28:24 What are the next few years going to look like? 30:56 People need to get very familiar with quantitative tightening Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off) www.JasonHartmanUniversity.com www.JasonHartmanIcehotel.com www.VentureAllianceMastermind.com   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com    

Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Christopher Waller Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks on the Paper "Quantitative Tightening around the Globe: What Have We Learned?"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

2.26.24 Bears May Find "Trouble Every Day"---------------------------------Well, CASH about to get UPSET From watchin' Jay's DELAY. He's checkin' out / the news Until his eyeballs fail to see.On January 31, during Jay Powell's press conference, he said that the committee would begin to explore slowing sales of its Treasury portfolio.Some analysts think the language indicates Quantitative Tightening slows later than sooner, while others opined it slows sooner.The market continues to trade sideways and mechanically as it waits for the Fed to reduce the sale of Bonds.Expect the bears not to find the momentum to push rates to a new high. As a result, the bulls can roar back in Spring when QT thaws.No way to delay Cash trouble comin' the Fed's way.-----------------------------------

We examine a potential timeline for the Fed to commence Quantitative Tightening, including the criteria which needs to be met, and how fixed income markets might respond to such a policy shift. We also review allocation preferences within the asset class, and highlight recent performance drivers. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtah, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ -- Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week, Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro joins the show to discuss the latest in markets after Jerome Powell's FOMC conference. -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The banking sector managed to avoid the worst case scenarios that some predicted in March 2023. But with banks still adjusting to the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening during the last two years, they are now shifting their attention to managing prospective rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, the Fed's Quantitative Tightening, Reverse Repo facility, and the 2023 Bank Term Funding Program are all set to reach critical inflection points during the next few months. In this episode, Ethan Heisler, editor in chief of The Bank Treasury Newsletter, discusses how banks can best position themselves in this dynamic environment.

Today's podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products -- nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics -- unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. See how nCino can support a homeownership journey that your borrowers and your team will love at nCino.com.

2023, a year nearly everyone expected a recession, has instead seen impressive economic growth and the markets power to all-time highs. How did this happen? Especially as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates above 5% while conducting Quantitative Tightening? In a word: liquidity. Liquidity steadily rose throughout 2023 and, like an incoming ocean tide, rose all boats. How? Why? Where is it coming from? And if it's such a key driver of asset prices, where is it headed from here? To find out, we're going to have a very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital. Get Michael's book Capital Wars at https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872 Subscribe to his Substack at https://capitalwars.substack.com Or follow him on X/Twitter at @crossbordercap ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #liquidity #bullmarket #stocks2024

Dan Nathan, Danny Moses and Guy Adami discuss market sell-offs, 0DTE options and the state of the consumer through the lens of 'Buy Now, Pay Later" Key Insights from the Pod: The brief market sell-off (2:00) Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) Options (7:15) Overbought conditions (10:00) Interest rates/yield curve/Fed (read: Wall Street's Economic Doomsayers See US Recession Around Corner) (13:15) Danny rants on Quantitative Tightening & Quantitative Easing (21:00) Americans May Be Taking On Too Much Pay-Later ‘Phantom Debt' (Affirm, CarMax, WalMart) (25:20) What comes next for the market (30:30) Danny's NFL picks (33:20) — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

If you have any questions or comments for Rohan and David, please feel free to send us an email at pod@goodlifehp.com. We'd love to hear from you! ***Don't forget to follow GoodLife Housing Partners on Twitter (@GoodLifeHP), Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/goodlifehp/), Youtube (https://www.youtube.com/@GoodLifeHP) Facebook, and LinkedIn! --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/goodlifehp/message

Will higher interest rates and inflation persist for a decade? An upcoming recession always seems to be perpetually just around the corner. Learn when it should finally happen. Macroeconomist Richard Duncan joins me. I tell you a funny story about when he was GRE's first-ever guest in 2014. Currency is now being destroyed—called Quantitative Tightening. Negatives for future asset prices: QT, higher rates, student loan debt repayment, stronger dollar, asset prices already inflated, high personal asset-to-income ratios, higher oil prices, looming government shutdown. Positives for future asset prices: monetary stimulus hangover, high employment, CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, The AI Revolution, prospect of lower future inflation and interest rates.  Richard provides his opinion and insight on today's real estate market. If inflation-adjusted credit growth is less than 2%, expect a recession. If it goes negative, expect a depression. Get a 50% Discount on Richard Duncan's MacroWatch video newsletter. Use the code “GRE” at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com Resources mentioned: Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/474 Get a 50% Discount on Richard Duncan's MacroWatch video newsletter. Use the code “GRE” at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold