Conversations with Commerce Trust

In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer and host David Hagee is joined by KC Mathews, Chief Market Strategist, and Don McArthur, Director of Equity Research, to discuss corporate earnings and how tariffs may impact markets and the economy:  How anticipated corporate earnings growth in 2025 has changed  How the fluid tariff situation affects economic growth, inflation, and the U.S. dollar  Our perspective on the interest rate environment Asset allocation and investment positioning amid market uncertainty  Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer and host David Hagee is joined by Commerce Trust investment team members Brett Stewart, Analyst Team Leader, and Adam Emig, Private Placement Analyst, to examine the unique characteristics of private placements and the outlook for these alternative investments.  Learn how various economic factors and market conditions may impact alternative investments, including:  Buyout investing and the potential impacts of today's regulatory environment Venture capital and the divide between top-tier venture capitalists and smaller firms  Private real estate and the differing performance among property types  The secondary market for investing in private placements Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer and host David Hagee is joined by Matt Schmitt, Director of Equity Strategy to compare the historical performance of U.S. versus international equities and discuss economic factors that impact the performance of international equities.Economic factors influencing international equity returns include:Differences in economic growth and market segments abroad relative to the U.S.Variations in the interest rate environment across different countriesCurrency fluctuations relative to investment performanceTariffs and their impact on international economiesFind all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer and host David Hagee is joined by Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management to discuss economic and market implications emerging from the new Trump administration. Topics include:   ·         How the new administration's views on tariffs, taxes, immigration and policy may impact the U.S. economy·         Implications for inflation, economic growth, interest rates, and the national deficitFind all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer and host David Hagee is joined by Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management; and KC Mathews, Chief Market Strategist; to discuss insights on the economic and market landscape as we head into the new year, as well as opportunities for investors for 2025. Topics include: ·         The likelihood of moderating economic growth in 2025 due to sustained higher interest rates and less federal stimulus. ·         The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will play a crucial role in shaping the year ahead, as well as possible changes in tariffs and immigration policies under a second Trump administration.·         Equities are poised to continue their positive trajectory, as broader market participation is a projected theme for domestic equities in 2025. ·         Within fixed income securities, compelling yields remain in place for investment-grade bonds, offering investors portfolio diversification opportunities. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

As 2024 draws to a close, it's important for investors to review your investment portfolio. For high-net-worth investors, the regular discipline of a portfolio review with your wealth management team can help ensure your portfolio is aligned with your investment goals and you are positioned to capture opportunities for additional investments and tax efficiencies over time.  In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee and Tim Michel, Director of Portfolio Management, discuss portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, and additional year-end strategies to grow your investment portfolio for 2025 and beyond.  Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

Does the September interest rate cut signal a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy? In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee and Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management, examine the Fed's recent actions, the likely pace of future rate cuts, and the Fed's attempt to find a neutral interest rate, which neither accelerates nor restricts economic growth. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

Nonprofit organizations play an essential role in our communities, yet many face service challenges in today's shifting economic environment. In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee and Amy Pieper, Director of Institutional Services at Commerce Trust, discuss the nonprofit world and why finding a trusted financial partner is pivotal to helping these organizations fulfill their missions both today and for years to come. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

Chief Investment Officer David Hagee and senior investment strategy leaders outline their broader expectations for equity returns for the remainder of 2024. Topics include: ·         How the U.S. economy is slowing, but still appears supportive for equity markets. ·         The expectation for strong corporate earnings and valuations through the rest of the year.·         The early August stock market sell-off and what it means for long-term investors. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer and host David Hagee is joined by senior investment strategy leaders to discuss insights on the current economic and market landscape, as well as opportunities for investors for the rest of 2024. Topics include: ·         An analysis of the U.S. economy, and the shift from a stimulus-fueled economy to one of self-sustaining economic recovery.·         Excitement for artificial intelligence (AI) and technology-oriented stocks continues to drive equity returns as we expect some broadening momentum across domestic stocks.·         Compelling yields remain in place for investment-grade bonds, while other fixed income securities could offer portfolio diversification opportunities.  ·         The U.S. debt situation and the long-term risks it poses to both the economy and financial markets. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

The dynamics of the global economy are changing, and new trends are emerging.In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee is joined by Kelly Jernigan, a Senior Portfolio Manager and Team Leader at Commerce Trust, to examine how the era of globalization is shifting. Topics include the emergence of developing countries that are growing their economic participation and influence. We also look at the U.S. response to the changing environment, including the effort to diversify its traditional supply chains in a post-pandemic world, and a resurgence in American manufacturing. Commerce Trust is a division of Commerce Bank. Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Commerce does not provide tax advice to customers unless engaged to do so.  Consult a tax specialist regarding tax implications related to any product and specific financial situation. Commerce Trust does not provide legal advice to its customers.  Data from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

Interest in alternative investments, a category of investable assets that fall outside the spectrum of  traditional investments like stocks, bonds, or cash instruments, has gained momentum in recent years among investors. In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee discusses the unique characteristics, risks, and opportunities available in the asset class with Cindy Rapponotti, our Director of Alternative Investments at Commerce Trust. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

Given the current interest rate environment and historically high yields, fixed income markets may present opportunities for investors looking to diversify an investment portfolio. We discuss the fixed income opportunities we see in 2024 in a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, hosted by Chief Investment Officer David Hagee.Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

Investors' preference for technology has reshaped the S&P 500 Index, with technology-oriented stocks now comprising nearly 50% of the index's weighting. With artificial intelligence (AI) poised to be the next revolutionary innovation, this segment looks likely to remain a key driver of performance in 2024.  Technology-oriented stocks, or companies with a heavy reliance on technology to drive growth, represent a range of companies that span across multiple sectors within the stock market. Until a few years ago, most of these companies fell under the information technology sector in the S&P 500 before changes were made to even out the weightings in the index's other sectors. In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee discusses the significance of technology within equities with Don McArthur, Director of Equity Research at Commerce Trust.  

The U.S. national debt exceeded $34 trillion dollars, while the federal deficit was $1.7 trillion for fiscal year 2023. How sustainable are these fiscal imbalances, and what does this mean for investors? In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee, examines the U.S. debt load, the deficit and how it all translates to the broader financial markets with Brent Schowe, our Director of Investment Research at Commerce Trust. 

Members of the Commerce Trust investment management team discuss our economic and market insights for 2024.

With 2023 winding down, now is an ideal time for investors to assess their wealth management plan. In the latest episode of Conversations with Commerce Trust, podcast host and Chief Investment Officer David Hagee is joined by Commerce Trust Directors of Portfolio Management Tara McConkey and Tim Michel, to discuss how recent economic and market activity could factor into year-end investment strategies for high-net-worth investors.  Read our companion piece on the importance of portfolio rebalancing as part of a healthy wealth management approach, potential tax advantages and how often one should rebalance. https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/news-and-insights/2023/why-portfolio-rebalancing-makes-sense

Rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to uneasiness around the world. Yet the markets have remained surprisingly calm. Why? In a new podcast episode hosted by Chief Investment Officer David Hagee, David and his guests Commerce Trust's Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management and KC Mathews, our Chief Market Strategist, examine market reaction to geopolitical crises. (You can subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Play, or Stitcher, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above.)

Global stock markets have experienced solid returns for much of 2023. What might investors see for the rest of year? We examine the equity markets with Commerce Trust's  Chief Market Strategist, KC Mathews, in our latest episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, hosted by Chief Investment Officer David Hagee.

Over the past 25 years, women's attitudes on investing have evolved considerably. In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, host and Chief Investment Officer David Hagee welcomes Cathy Arshadi, Director of Financial Management for Commerce Trust, to discuss the role of women in investing, including how women investors tend to outperform their male counterparts and where room for improvement remains. We also encourage you to check out our companion piece, which examines investing from a woman's perspective.

Will we or won't we enter a recession in 2023? We share our economic and market forecasts for the rest of the year in a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, hosted by Chief Investment Officer David Hagee.

One of the most reliable indicators of economic forecasting is the yield curve. It is a perfect 10 for 10: every recession since 1955 has been preceded by an inversion. Currently the yields of the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bills have been inverted for 11 months. Is a recession looming in the near term, and if so, how severe will it be? We discuss the yield curve inversion in our latest episode of Conversations with Commerce Trust. We also encourage you to download our companion piece to the podcast, examining what makes this yield curve inversion unique.  Lastly, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee provides an overview on the debt ceiling standstill and what's at stake should the U.S. default on its debt obligations.  

Shifting economic conditions and a tightening lending environment are creating headwinds for the commercial real estate sector. These challenges include a growing number of property owner defaults, an overwhelming surplus of office space and nearly $150 billion in office leases set to mature over the next two years. Is commercial real estate on shaky ground? We discuss in a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast. Also, we invite you to download our companion commentary that explores the good, the bad and the ugly of the real estate sector.  

Uncertainty stemming from turmoil in the global banking industry has shaken investor confidence. Is this a repeat of the Great Financial Crisis? We discuss the current situation in the banking sector, its impact on the financial markets and possible implications for the broader economy in this episode of Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast.You can read more from David Hagee on The banking crisis and its effect on the markets

In our latest Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast episode. David Hagee and Tara McConkey discuss the Federal Reserve's 10-year run of easy money that led to the rise in popularity of certain highly speculative asset categories, including crypto, SPACs and NFTs, and how the Fed's shift to a restrictive stance last year wreaked havoc on these riskier investments. As a companion piece to the podcast, we offer a commentary on the possible future of the hotly debated and polarizing world of cryptocurrency. 

In our latest podcast, we revisit last year's extraordinary market events and provide insights from the 2023 Economic Outlook on what could lie ahead in the world of investments for 2023.

Chief Investment Officer David Hagee discusses the municipal markets, looking at the tumultuous year that they've had and planning for investment opportunities with Brian Musielak, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management. 

Chief Investment Officer David Hagee explores the evolution of global commerce known as “Slobalization,” and how technology, a manufacturing renaissance and regional trade networks are transforming the way the world does business.

After a disappointing first half of the year, the markets appear to be experiencing some resurgence. The S&P 500 Index, while still down for the year, has recouped nearly 40% of its losses from its low point in March. So, what's behind this rally? In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we delve into three factors we believe are driving this rebound. Disclosures:Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, August 3, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such.Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade orinvest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors.This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you, or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice.

The stock market's performance in July has been relatively positive to date, which is a marked improvement from the first half of the year. This has many investors asking if we're experiencing a calm before the storm, or the start of a material rebound. In this episode of Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we outline three possible economic scenarios and how each could impact market performance for the rest of 2022.https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-721Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, July 20, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice 

Financial market performance has been dismal so far in 2022. With the dog days of summer now upon us, what expectations should we have for the rest of the year? In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we examine the current economic backdrop, opportunities for optimism and what it all means for investors.Disclosures:Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, July 5, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such.Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors.This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice.July 05,

The capital markets have been highly volatile for most of 2022, as investors come to grips with skyrocketing inflation, a suddenly hawkish Fed and geopolitical tensions. With such wild market activity, one of the most frequent questions we hear is, “When will we hit bottom?” In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we list three things we'd like to see that could signal an end to the market drawdown.

In an effort to combat the worst inflation in 40 years, the Federal Reserve said it's raising the federal funds rates by a half-point on May 4, and indicated more rate hikes could lie ahead. Do investors still need to worry about a recession? In our latest Five Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, we examine into the Fed's actions and look at several factors why we believe a severe downturn is not likely in the near term.

In this segment of Five Minutes With Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott dives into some pressing client portfolio questions, offering up much needed insight to the complex factors that will drive Federal Reserve policy on interest rate hikes slated for the balance of 2022.  Despite the global economic headwinds of the Russian-Ukraine war, Scott believes the Fed is back to the idea of seven interest rate hikes this year with a bias toward the high side to fight back U.S. inflation.  In addition, look for Quantitative Easing monetary policy to be reversed in May as the Fed doubles-down on its effort to corral inflation.  While U.S. growth forecasts have been pulled back, Scott believes modest growth is still attainable and chances for a recession this year so far are minimal. 

In this edition of 5 Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott reminds us that global markets have over time been confronted with many other geo-political crises similar to the current Russian-Ukraine conflict.  Indeed, stock markets had until this week relatively discounted the long-term impact of the Russian invasion, but near-term uncertainty seemingly prevails as commodity and energy prices have dramatically soared.  On one hand, recent robust job creation shows the U.S. economy is still poised for some growth this year, yet on the other hand many wonder if the Federal Reserve's plan to start raising interest rates to rein in galloping inflation is too much medicine to take right now.

It is hard to escape the news of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and this turmoil will continue to dominate the news as analysts try to sort through the potential impacts on people and the global economy.  In this edition of 5 Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott says it will be a challenge for anyone to handicap the potential outcomes of this fluid international drama.  Somewhat behind the scenes as this story unfolds is the concern that the Federal Reserve will move from raising interest rates four times this year as anticipated starting in March to maybe as many as six or seven to control rampant inflation.  Stocks typically don't do well when the Fed is aggressively raising rates. 

While there has been a lot of tumultuous financial market news to digest as of late, there is still a solid underpinning of economic news that bodes well overall for the year.  In this edition of “Five Minutes With Chief Economist Scott Colbert, CFA,” Scott explains why he thinks that recent volatility is a natural market correction in the midst of a broader economic expansion, and that's a lot different than a bear market that accompanies a recession. He expects to see the markets pull back, possibly regain their footing later in the first quarter, and then make some forward progress on growth.

Scott explains why he believes U.S. economic growth could still exceed 4% this year despite the headwinds from spiking inflation and the knock-on effects of stubborn supply chain disruptions during the pandemic.  Key drivers of Scott's optimistic growth picture include the continued favorable impact of ultra-low interest rates, ongoing fiscal stimulus, and the seldom-discussed effect of excess savings that consumers currently have on the sidelines. By some measures, this built-up excess could be in the neighborhood of $2.7 trillion, and will eventually find its way back into the economy.

News of the omicron variant is still having an impact as stock investors are feeling bearish symptoms again with futures trending downward. Yesterday's Cyber Monday online sales experienced subdued activity levels as well. Uncertainty about the effectiveness of current vaccines on the new variant has the Federal Reserve reassessing its outlook, especially as it pertains to growth, jobs, and spiking inflation. In this edition of “5 Minutes With Scott Colbert,” Scott candidly discusses the macro forces at play, and how volatility in the markets may now increase in the near term even as the current quarter had gotten off to a strong start.  

How will consumers react to an inflation rate that hit a three-decade high last month? What impact will the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill have? See Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert's insights on these macro forceshttps://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-1116

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has risen over 23% and company earnings reports continue to exceed expectations, but spiking inflation is holding back growth. See what Chief Economist Scott Colbert has to say about how the 4th quarter will unfold. https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-1029

In this edition of “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert, CFA,” Scott explains three wild cards in play that affect the economy in the near term:  1) When will the debt ceiling be extended; 2) How will China's slowing growth affect the global economic picture; and 3) How “sticky” is the inflation spike and what will it do to interest rates?  https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-101

Heading into the Labor Day weekend, Chief Economist Scott Colbert takes a moment to review economic activity in August and highlights why we're still optimistic, despite a possible bumpy road in the near term, on our overall economic momentum going forward. https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-92

Earlier this week the stock market was up almost 20% on a year-to-date basis.  It has been driven upwards primarily on the back of an expanding economy, explosion in corporate earnings, and even a very, very positive recent employment report.  Since then, however,  it's clear that some storm clouds are brewing and we could experience periodic braking and a temporary slowdown.  Market observers are pulling back their outlook for growth somewhat in the second half of the year.  As Commerce Chief Economist Scott Colbert, CFA, explained in a previous segment,  we are heading into the part of the recovery where we are transitioning from a reliance on government stimulus to a natural, self-sustaining economy.  Scott sees this as rough weather that we're going to have to get through on our way to our long-term, positive economic outlook, as he further explains in this edition of “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert.”https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-820

In this week's “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert” video, Scott gives a glimpse at how the voting members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee develop their policy positions on evolving economic activity and exercise their influence on monetary policy-setting matters.  By focusing on the analysis of individual members in the course of the eight meetings the Central Bank conducts each year, Fed watchers can see the changing trends and shifts in the thinking of the overall body.  Will the Fed begin “tapering” their purchases of Treasuries and start raising interest rates sooner than they might have intended as the effects of the pandemic diminish?  Colbert suggests you can answer this question by looking at the individual positions that Fed Bank Presidents like James Bullard in St. Louis, Eric Rosengren in Boston and Robert S. Kaplan in Dallas are starting to articulate.  Will the rest of the Fed adopt a speedier return to normalize interest rates?  

Scott takes the position that the inflation spike upon us right now is still transitory as the Federal Reserve believes, but it is going to take longer than anticipated to moderate, probably sometime next year.  So expect economic stories on this inflationary speed bump to be a regular occurrence in the media for quite a while.  We will likely not settle back into the comfortable 1% to 2% inflation rate range of the recent past, but rather establish a new norm of 2% to 3% in 2022.