Podcasts about great financial crisis

Global financial crisis

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Best podcasts about great financial crisis

Latest podcast episodes about great financial crisis

BISness
The transformation of the life insurance industry: systemic risks and policy challenges

BISness

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2025 14:52


Gaston Gelos and Frank Parker explain how the life insurance industry has undergone a profound structural transformation since the Great Financial Crisis, amid a prolonged period of exceptionally low interest rates and evolving regulatory frameworks. 

The Distribution by Juniper Square
Re-shoring, Robotics, and Real Alpha: A Deep Dive Into the Future of Industrial - Aasif Bade - Founder & CEO - Ambrose

The Distribution by Juniper Square

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2025 53:29


In this episode of The Distribution, host Brandon Sedloff sits down with Aasif Bade, founder and CEO of Ambrose, to explore how he built one of the country's leading modern industrial real estate platforms from the ground up. Aasif shares his journey from watching his father work in a warehouse on the west side of Indianapolis to founding Ambrose in 2008—just weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. He explains how that moment of uncertainty became an opportunity to reimagine how industrial real estate could be developed and operated with an entrepreneurial, client-first mindset. They discuss: • The childhood experience that sparked Aasif's lifelong passion for warehouses and real estate • Lessons learned from Duke Realty and how they shaped Ambrose's “boots on the ground” approach • Launching Ambrose during the Great Financial Crisis and the conviction behind taking that risk • The evolution from deal-by-deal partnerships to raising a $400 million institutional fund • How modern industrial design and advanced automation are redefining America's supply chain • The growing overlap between industrial and data center development opportunities • Why power access and hands-on market knowledge create a competitive edge LInks: Ambrose - https://ambrosepg.com/ Aasif on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/aasif-bade-a3b1851a4/ Brandon on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bsedloff/ Juniper Square - https://www.junipersquare.com/ Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:02:42) - Aasif's early interest in warehousing (00:12:25) - Starting Ambrose during economic turmoil (00:18:28) - The growth and scale of Ambrose (00:23:54) - Challenges in raising an institutional fund (00:25:45) - Building relationships with institutional investors (00:28:34) - Boots on the ground approach (00:29:39) - Understanding market nuances (00:33:27) - Organizational structure and outsourcing (00:38:12) - Impact of onshoring and reshoring (00:42:20) - Supply and demand dynamics in industrial real estate (00:47:18) - Inside a modern industrial warehouse (00:49:43) - Power constraints in modern warehouses (00:51:21) - Conclusion and final thoughts

The Briefing Room
Is there a crash coming?

The Briefing Room

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2025 44:14


Some of the biggest figures in finance, from the CEO of JPMorganChase to the Governor of the Bank of England, have been warning of potential shocks to the global economy. As excitement continues to build about the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence, the US stock market has boomed, potentially forming a fragile bubble. Meanwhile, recent bankruptcies in America have raised worries that a rapid growth in lending by private companies (so-called shadow banks) might be built on shaky ground - and have invoked memories of the subprime mortgage debacle that kicked off the Great Financial Crisis in 2007. And if that wasn't enough, the threat that Donald Trump might reignite his tariff-driven trade war still looms over the global economy.So how worried should we be? David Aaronovitch speaks to the top experts to find out.Guests: Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure LiberumPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Duncan Hannant

Okay, Computer.
Jeff deGraaf: The Market That Continues To Defy Gravity

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2025 45:11


In this episode of the On the Tape Podcast, host Danny Moses discusses market insights with Jeff deGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research. Jeff elaborates on the structure and focus of his firm, the team's expertise, and their approach to research. The conversation covers Jeff's career journey from Merrill Lynch to Lehman Brothers and eventually founding RenMac. They delve into market dynamics, covering the impact of macroeconomic conditions on financials, private equity, and various sectors including healthcare, technology, and small caps. Jeff provides technical analysis of gold, beta stocks, and evaluates the potential of a market bubble in the context of historical trends. The discussion also touches on inflation, debt concerns, and the influence of the Federal Reserve's policies on market conditions. Lastly, Jeff shares details about RenMac's offerings for institutional investors and individuals.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Macro Musings with David Beckworth
Jim Clouse on the Last 4 Decades at the Most Powerful Central Bank in the World

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2025 61:11


Jim Clouse is a veteran of the Federal Reserve System and is currently a fellow at the Andersen Institute. In Jim's first appearance on the show, he discusses the evolution of monetary rules at the Fed, what happened at the Fed during Y2K, 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, and the COVID Pandemic, the ever changing stigma of the discount window, Ted Cruz's calls to end interest on reserves, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on September 11th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:03:16 - Jim's Career 00:05:38 - Monetary Rules at the Fed 00:09:12 - Increasing Transparency at the Fed 00:17:25 - Y2K and the Fed 00:26:19 - Discount Window 00:32:21 - Global Financial Crisis 00:39:10 - Covid Pandemic 00:46:10 - Jim's Current Research 01:00:31 - Outro

Okay, Computer.
Dennis DeBusschere: Taking A Victory Lap Through The K-Shaped Economy

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2025 34:20


Danny welcomes Dennis DeBusschere, President of 22V Research on for another podcast appearance! Together, they dissect the ever-changing landscape of markets and the economy, diving deep into volatile Fed policy, government shutdown drama, AI-driven earnings momentum, and the latest on U.S.-China dynamics following a recent trip to Shanghai and Beijing. The conversation covers the K-shaped economy, sector performance, rate risk, and the critical role of labor market trends in shaping investor sentiment. Dennis shares exclusive survey takeaways from institutional clients and candid outlooks on inflation, central bank independence, and future credit market turbulence. Stick around at the end for Danny's Week 7 NFL picks as he looks to bounce back after a tough streak.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

WICC 600
CT Today With Paul Pacelli - Investigating A Child's Death

WICC 600

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2025 45:00


"Connecticut Today" host Paul Pacelli opened Wednesday's show looking at information being pieced together in connection with the death of a 12-year-old girl. Will her death result in calls for more homeschooling oversight (00:59)? GOP State Senate Leader Steve Harding, of Brookfield, weighed in on that case as well (15:19). Hearst Connecticut Media Senior Editor and Columnist Dan Haar looked at several big stories around the state (20:55), while CBS News Military Analyst U.S. Army Col. (Ret.) Jeff McCausland discussed the military and security aspects of the current and future situations in Gaza and the Middle East (33:56).  We also welcomed banking, real estate, and investment veteran Todd Sheets, author of, "2008: What Really Happened - Understanding the Great Financial Crisis." He also writes "On Wealth and Progress - Balanced Commentary for a Better Future" at Substack.com (37:51) Image Credit: iStock / Getty Images Plus

The Shaun Thompson Show
The REAL Cost of Corruption

The Shaun Thompson Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2025 103:02


Pritzker pretends to be a tough guy. PLUS, Todd Sheets, author of 2008: What Really Happened – Understanding the Great Financial Crisis and his On Wealth and Progress Substack, joins Shaun to break down the hidden forces behind the destruction of affordable housing. And Dom Giordano, host of the Old School, New School, Next School podcast, joins Shaun to dive into the latest developments in school choice and, more importantly, the growing movement around parental rights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Shaun Thompson Show

Todd Sheets, author of 2008: What Really Happened – Understanding the Great Financial Crisis and his On Wealth and Progress Substack, joins Shaun to break down the hidden forces behind the destruction of affordable housing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Okay, Computer.
Shana Sissel: The Queen of Alternatives and Perseverance

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2025 40:42


Danny Moses interviews Shana Sissel, CEO and founder of Banríon Capital Managemen, known as the 'queen of alternatives.' Shana shares her journey in the financial industry, including roles at Morgan Stanley, Fidelity Investments, Russell Investments, and Orion, and discusses the evolution and importance of alternative investments. She highlights the challenges and opportunities for retail investors in this space and the role of advisor-centric platforms like Banríon . The conversation also touches on current market conditions, the impact of AI, and concerns about valuations and debt. Shana emphasizes the significance of manager selection and understanding market structures in today's complex financial landscape.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Okay, Computer.
Michael Lewis Q&A with Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel & Porter Collins

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2025 51:06


Danny, Vinnie and Porter hosted author Michael Lewis for a special edition of the 'Friday Night Dirty' podcast. To get content like this and more, subscribe over on Substack.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Okay, Computer.
Sonali Basak: iCapital Chief Investment Strategist Makes Podcast Debut

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 1, 2025 38:56


iCapital's new Chief Investment Strategist Sonali Basak joins Danny on the latest On The Tape podcast! Sonali shares her extraordinary journey from media to Wall Street, reflecting on how she's helping to shape content strategies for leading financial firms while empowering investors to make better decisions. We dive into her experiences launching original content at Bloomberg, insights on today's Fed policy, the state of both equity and fixed income markets, and her perspective on the challenges and opportunities within a rapidly evolving “K-shaped” economy. Don't miss this rare debut conversation with one of Wall Street's next-generation thought leaders!--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Commercial Property Executive
CREW Up: CREW's New CEO Is Pushing the Mission Forward

Commercial Property Executive

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2025 17:21


Alison Beddard has a degree in nutrition and dietetics, and was always encouraged by her family to go into the sciences field. But everyone kept telling her she would be great in sales, so she gave it a try and took on a brokerage job. And for three years, she only grew. Then the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 hit, and she lost everything she had built. That's when she found CREW Seattle—right when she was looking for support and guidance to broaden her professional network.Get to know Beddard, CREW Network's new CEO, by listening to her conversation with CPE Senior Editor Laura Valean!

Thoughts on the Market
When Will the U.S. Housing Market Reactivate?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2025 15:01


Our Co-Head of Securitized Products Research James Egan joins our Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner to discuss the recent challenges facing the U.S. housing market, and the path forward for home buyers and investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Research for Morgan Stanley. Ellen Zentner: And I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. James Egan: And today we dive into a topic that touches nearly every American household, quite literally. The future of the U.S. housing market. It's Thursday, September 25th at 10am in New York. So, Ellen, this conversation couldn't be timelier. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and our chief U.S. Economist, Mike Gapen expects three more consecutive 25 basis point cuts through January of next year. And that's going to be followed by two more 25 basis point cuts in April and July. But mortgage rates, they're not tied to fed funds. So even if we do get 6.25 bps cuts by the end of 2026, that in and of itself we don't think is going to be sufficient to bring down mortgage rates, though other factors could get us there.Taking all that into account, the U.S. housing market appears to be a little stuck. The big question on investors' minds is – what's next for housing and what does that mean for the broader economy? Ellen Zentner: Well, I don't like the word stuck. There's no churn in the housing market. We want to see things moving and shaking. We want to see sellers out there. We want to see buyers out there. And we've got a lot of buyers – or would be buyers, right? But not a lot of sellers. And, you know, the economy does well when things are moving and shaking because there's a lot of home related spending that goes on when we're selling and buying homes. And so that helps boost consumer spending. Housing is also a really interest rate sensitive sector, so you know, I like to say as goes housing, so goes the business cycle. And so, you don't want to think that housing is sort of on the downhill slide or heading toward a downturn [be]cause it would mean that the entire economy is headed toward a downturn. So, we want to see housing improve here. We want to see it thaw out. I don't like, again, the word stuck, you know. I want to see some more churn. James Egan: As do we, and one of the reasons that I wanted to talk to you today is that you are observing all of these pressures on the U.S. housing market from your perspective in wealth management. And that means your job is to advise retail clients who sometimes can have a longer investment time horizon. So, Ellen, when you look at the next decade, how do you estimate the need for new housing units in the United States and what happens if we fall short of these estimated targets? Ellen Zentner: Yeah, so we always like to say demographics makes the world go round and especially it makes the housing market go round. And we know that if you just look at demographic drivers in the U.S. Of those young millennials and Gen Z that are aging into their first time home buying years – whether they're able to immediately or at some point purchase a home – they will want to buy homes. And if they can't afford the homes, then they will want to maybe rent those single-family homes. But either way, if you're just looking at the sheer need for housing in any way, shape, or form that it comes, we're going to need about 18 million units to meet all of that demand through 2030. And so, when I'm talking with our clients on the wealth management side, it's – Okay, short term here or over the next couple of years, there is a housing cycle. And affordability is creating pressures there. But if we look out beyond that, there are opportunities because of the demographic drivers – single family rentals, multi-family. We think modular housing can be something big here, as well. All of those solutions that can help everyone get into a home that wants to be. James Egan: Now, you hit on something there that I think is really important, kind of the implications of affordability challenges. One of the things that we've been seeing is it's been driving a shift toward rentership over ownership. How does that specific trend affect economic multipliers and long-term wealth creation? Ellen Zentner: In terms of whether you're going to buy a single-family home or you're going to rent a single-family home, it tends to be more square footage and there's more spending that goes on with it. But, of course, then relatively speaking, if you're buying that single family home versus renting, you're also going to probably spend a lot more time and care on that home while you're there, which means more money into the economy. In terms of wealth creation, we'd love to get the single-family home ownership rate as high as possible. It's the key way that households build intergenerational wealth. And the average American, or the average household has four times the wealth in their home than they do in the stock market. And so that's why it's very important that we've always created wealth that way through housing; and we want people to own, and they want to own. And that's good news. James Egan: These affordability challenges. Another thing that you've been highlighting is that they've led to an internal migration trend. People moving from high cost to lower cost metro areas. How is this playing out and what are the economic consequences of this migration? Ellen Zentner: Well, I think, first of all, I think to the wonderful work that Mark Schmidt does on the Munis team at MS and Co. It matters a great deal, ownership rates in various regions because it can tell you something about the health of the metropolitan area where they are. Buying those homes and paying those property taxes. It can create imbalances across the U.S. where you've got excess supply maybe in some areas, but very tight housing supply in others. And eventually to balance that out, you might even have some people that, say, post-COVID or during COVID moved to some parts of the country that have now become very expensive. And so, they leave those places and then go back to either try another locale or back to the locale they had moved from. So, understanding those flows within the U.S. can help communities understand the needs of their community, the costs associated with filling those needs, and also associated revenues that might be coming in. So, Jim, I mentioned a couple of times here about single family renting, and so from your perch, given that growing number of single-family rentals, how is that going to influence housing strategy and pricing? James Egan: It is certainly another piece of the puzzle when we look at like single family home ownership, multi-unit rentership, multi-unit home ownership, and then single family rentership. Over the past 15 years, this has been the fastest growing way in which kind of U.S. households exist. And when we take a step back looking at the housing market more holistically – something you hit on earlier – supply has been low, and that's played a key role in keeping prices high and affordability under pressure. On top of that, credit availability has been constrained. It's one of the pillars that we use when evaluating home prices and housing activity that we do think gets overlooked. And so even if you can find a home to buy in these tight inventory environments, it's pretty difficult to qualify for a mortgage. Those lending standards have been tight, that's pushed the home ownership rate down to 65 percent. Now, it was a little bit lower than this, after the Great Financial Crisis, but prior to that point, this is the lowest that home ownership rates have been since 1995. And so, we do think that single family rentership, it becomes another outlet and will continue to be an important pillar for the U.S. housing market on a go forward basis. So, the economic implications of that, that you highlighted earlier, we think that's going to continue to be something that we're living with – pun only half intended – in the U.S. housing market. Ellen Zentner: Only half intended. But let me take you back to something that you said at the beginning of the podcast. And you talked about Gapen's expectation for rate cuts and that that's going to bring fed funds rate down. Those are interest rates, though that don't impact mortgage rates. So how do mortgage rates price? And then, how do you see those persistently higher mortgage rates continuing to weigh on affordability. Or, I guess, really, what we all want to know is – when are mortgage rates going to get to a point where housing does become affordable again? James Egan: In our prior podcast, my Co-Head of Securitized Products Research, Jay Bacow and myself talked about how cutting fed funds wasn't necessarily sufficient to bring down mortgage rates. But the other piece of this is going to be how much lower do mortgage rates need to go? And one of the things we highlighted there, a data point that we do think is important. Mortgage rates have come down recently, right? Like we're at our lowest point of the year, but the effective rate on the outstanding market is still below 4.25 percent. Mortgage rates are still above 6.25 percent, so the market's 200 basis points out of the money. One of the things that we've been trying to do, looking at changes to affordability historically. What we think you really need to see a sustainable growth in housing activity is about a 10 percent improvement in affordability. How do we get there? It's about a 5.5 percent mortgage rate as opposed to the 6 1/8th to 6.25 where we were when we walked into this recording studio today. We think there will be a little bit response to the move in mortgage rates we've already seen. Again, it's the lowest that rates have been this year, and there have been some… Ellen Zentner: Are those fence sitters; what we call fence sitters? People that say, ‘Oh gosh, it's coming down. Let me go ahead and jump in here.' James Egan: Absolutely. We'll see some of that. And then from just other parts of the housing infrastructure, we'll see refinance rates pick up, right? Like there are borrowers who've seen originations over the course of the past couple years whose rates are higher than this. Morgan Stanley actually publishes a truly refinanceable index that measures what percentage of the housing market has at least a 25 basis point incentive to refinance. Housing market holistically after this move? 17 percent? Mortgages originated in the last two years, 61 percent of them have that incentive. So, I think you'll see a little bit more purchase activity. Again, we need to get to 5.5 percent for us to believe that will be sustainable. But you'll also see some refinance activity as well, right? Ellen Zentner: Right, it doesn't mean you get absolutely nothing and then all of a sudden the spigot opens when you get to 5.5 percent. Anecdotal evidence, I have a 2.7 percent 30-year mortgage and I've told my husband, I'm going to die in this apartment. I'm not moving anywhere. So, I'm part of the problem, Jim. James Egan: Well, congratulations to you on the mortgage… Ellen Zentner: Thank you. I wasn't trying to brag, But yes, it feels like, you know, your point on perspective folks that are younger buyers, you know, are looking at the prevailing mortgage rate right now and saying, ‘My gosh, that's really high.' But some of us that have been around for a lot longer are saying, ‘Really, this is fine.' But it's all relative speaking. James Egan: When you have over 60 percent of the mortgage market that has a rate below 4.5 percent, below 4 percent, yes, on a long-term basis, mortgage rates don't look particularly high. They're very high relative to the past 15 years, and to your point on a 2.7 percent mortgage rate, there's no incentive for you... Or there's limited incentive for you to sell that home, pay off that 2.7 percent mortgage rate, buy a new home at higher prices, at a much higher mortgage rate. That has – I know you don't like the word stuck – but it has been what's gotten this housing market kind of mired in its current situation. Price is very protective. Activity pretty low. Ellen Zentner: Jim, we've been talking about all the affordability issues and so let's set mortgage rates aside and talk about policy proposals. Are there specific policies that could also help on the affordability front? James Egan: So, there's a number of things that we get questions about on a pretty regular basis. Things like GSE reform, first time home buyer tax credits, things that could potentially spur supply. And look, the devil is in the details here. My colleague, Jay Bacow, has done a lot of work on GSE reform and what we're really focusing on there is the nature of the guarantee as well as the future of regulation and capital charges. For instance, U.S. banks own approximately one-third of the agency mortgage-backed securities market. Any changes to regulatory capital as a result of GSE reform, that could have implications for their demand, and that's going to have implications on mortgage rates, right? First time home buyer tax credits. We have seen those before – the spring of 2008 to 2010, and if we use that as a case study, we did see a temporary rise in home sales and a pause in the pace with which home prices were falling. But the effects there were temporary. Sales and prices wouldn't hit their post housing crisis lows until after those programs expired. Ellen Zentner: Right. So, you were incentivized to buy the house. You get the credit; you buy the house. But then unbeknownst to any economist out there, housing valuations continued to fall. James Egan: You could argue that it maybe pulled some demand forward. And so, you saw a lot of it concentrated and then the absence of that demand afterwards. And then on the supply side, there are a number of different programs we have touched on, some of them in these podcasts in the past. And then some of those questions become what needs to go through Congress, what is more kind of local municipality versus federal government. But look, the devil's in the details. It's an incredibly interesting housing market. Probably one that's going to be the source of many podcasts to come. So, Ellen, given all these challenges facing the U.S. housing market. Where do you see the biggest opportunities for retail investors? Ellen Zentner: So, in our recent note Housing in the Next Decade, we took a look at single family renting; you and I have talked about how that's likely to still be in favor for some time. REITs with exposure to select U.S. rental markets; what about senior housing? That is something that you've done deep research on, as well. Senior and affordable housing providers, home construction and materials companies. What about building more sustainable homes with a good deal of the climate change that we're seeing. And financial technology firms that offer flexible financing solutions. So, these are some of the things that we think could be in play as we think about housing over the long term. James Egan: Ellen, thank you for all your insights. It's been a pleasure to have you on the podcast. And I guess there's a key takeaway for investors here. Housing isn't just about where we live, it's about where the economy is headed. Ellen Zentner: Exactly. Always a pleasure to be on the show. Thanks, Jim. James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Okay, Computer.
Meredith Whitney: Avocado Toast With A Side of Wage Garnishment

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 24, 2025 38:34


Danny Moses talks to Meredith Whitney, founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, about the current state of the housing market and consumer finance. Meredith highlights the sluggishness in existing home sales, attributing it to seniors holding onto their homes and tapping into home equity loans. She discusses the consumer spending patterns of Gen Z and Millennials, focusing on the financial impact of student loans and rising healthcare premiums. The conversation also touches on private credit's growing role in consumer lending and the potential implications for companies like Rocket Mortgage and Upstart. Meredith provides insights into the regulatory landscape, the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the shifting dynamics of the credit card market. She concludes by discussing her successful investment picks and the potential for a coming economic cycle. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast
From $20K/Year Salary to $20K+/Month Passive Income w/Ashley Hamilton

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2025 38:10


Ashley Hamilton had every card stacked against her in achieving financial freedom. She was a single mother with two children, earning just $20,000 per year working as a waitress, living in Detroit, one of the hardest-hit markets following the Great Financial Crisis.  Sixteen years later, she's making $50,000 per month in pure cash flow (and she has the receipts to prove it)! In Detroit, foreclosures were running rampant, houses were being repossessed left and right, but what could she do with almost no disposable income? Thanks to a $6,000 tax refund check, Ashley did what everyone told her not to do—buy a house during the crash. Fortune favors the bold, and Ashley was soon making $7,000 per year in cash flow from a single property. It was time to repeat the system and buy more rentals. With each tax refund, a new property was acquired, and get this—without using a mortgage. Ashley scaled fast thanks to her super-saver mentality, and now makes more passive income in one month than many people do in a year. She's done it all with fewer rental properties, striving to have more cash flow instead of more doors. She's walking through her portfolio, breaking down which properties make the most, and how to scale beyond financial freedom, no matter your starting point.  In This Episode We Cover How to invest in real estate even if you have a low salary and little disposable income Why you don't need a massive real estate portfolio for financial freedom  The best piece of advice Ashley gives to new real estate investors The secret to scaling your real estate portfolio that 99% of people will ignore  Breaking the generational poverty curse and giving your kids a greater life  And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1177 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Real Power Family Radio Show
Financial Friday: The Stock and Real Estate Bubble

The Real Power Family Radio Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2025 61:58


FF: The Stock and Real Estate Bubble The problems going on in today's markets is not like the dot-com crash from 2000 or the Great Financial Crisis from 2008. There are cracks showing in our current system that show that the bubbles going on right now can not continue. What can you look for in the stock market to give you clues as to where we are at? Why are the rates of multi-family housing delinquencies at their highest rate since 2011? We talk about all this and more!  Sponsors: American Gold Exchange Our dealer for precious metals & the exclusive dealer of Real Power Family silver rounds (which we finally got in!!!). Get your first, or next bullion order from American Gold Exchange like we do. Tell them the Real Power Family sent you! Click on this link to get a FREE Starters Guide. Or Click Here to order our new Real Power Family silver rounds. 1 Troy Oz 99.99% Fine Silver Abolish Property Taxes in Ohio: www.AxOHTax.com  Get more information about abolishing all property taxes in Ohio. Our Links: www.RealPowerFamily.com Info@ClearSkyTrainer.com 833-Be-Do-Have (833-233-6428)

Okay, Computer.
Keith McCullough: Skate To Where The Market Is Going

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2025 37:42


Danny welcomes Keith McCullough, founder of Hedgeye and a former Yale hockey captain, to discuss his journey from Yale hockey to Wall Street and the establishment of his independent research firm, Hedgeye. Keith shares insights on his disciplined work ethic, cultivated through hockey, and how it translates to his work in finance. He reflects on his career at various hedge funds and the lessons learned about market cycles and risk management. The episode delves into Hedgeye's unique product offerings and the quad system used for market analysis. Keith explains the importance of understanding market flows and discusses current market positions, including his bullish stance on small-cap stocks amidst changing economic conditions. Finally, Keith highlights Hedgeye's charitable efforts and community involvement through initiatives like supporting the Bridgeport Youth League. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Okay, Computer.
Robinhood: Viva Las Vegas with Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins & JB Mackenzie

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2025 46:18


Danny Moses is LIVE from the Hood Summit 2025 in Las Vegas. He is joined by JB Mackenzie, VP and General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood, along with his Seawolf Capital co-founders, Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel. The discussion covers innovations such as event contracts, the impact of AI, and the importance of product evolution in trading. JB highlights Robinhood's rapid product development and customer engagement. The episode also touches on stock market dynamics, financial regulation, and strategies for retail investors. The session concludes with NFL Week Two picks and a live audience Q&A. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

WPRV- Don Sowa's MoneyTalk
Choosing Your Investment Vehicles

WPRV- Don Sowa's MoneyTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2025 41:53


There are a variety of investment vehicles at your disposal, and knowing how and when to use one over another requires a good understanding of their mechanics. Nathan breaks down the common investment vehicles, how they differ, and the various needs they serve within your portfolio. Also, on our MoneyTalk Moment in Financial History, Nathan and Steve cover a period that still looms large in the collective memory of our nation, The Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Hosts: Nathan Beauvais CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA® & Steven Beauvais; Air Date: 9/3/2025; Original Air Dates: 10/25/2023 & 8/2/2024. Have a question for the hosts? Leave a message on the MoneyTalk Hotline at (401) 587-SOWA and have your voice heard live on the air!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Okay, Computer.
Ryan Glasspiegel: Views From The Front Office

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2025 37:10


In this episode of On the Tape, the host is joined by Ryan Glasspiegel of Front Office Sports to discuss the convergence of sports, business, media, and gambling. The conversation explores the rise of legalized sports betting, evolving media rights deals, and the impact of gambling on sports franchise valuations. Ryan shares his career journey and insights into the future of sports media and event contracts. They also discuss the challenges and opportunities posed by new gaming regulations and the significant roles of tech companies like Amazon and Netflix in sports broadcasting. The episode concludes with the host's NFL week one betting picks. Learn more about FOS Tuned In Here Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 4:10 - Event Contracts & Gambling 13:15 - Media Rights 20:25 - Stock Impacts 28:50 - Sports Content Landscape 34:40 - Danny's Picks --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Where Finance Finds Its Future
GLEIF takes on the blockchain interoperability conundrum

Where Finance Finds Its Future

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2025 38:32


A Future of Finance interview with Alexandre Kech, CEO of GLEIF.There are two main obstacles to the scaling of the markets in digital assets and one of them is the lack of interoperability between blockchain networks and between blockchain networks and traditional financial markets. The default answer, hallowed by history in multiple industries, is standards. By enabling different networks to exchange data, they multiply the overall volume of counterparties and transactions. Unfortunately, attempts to achieve interoperability standards in digital assets suffer from limited usage and winner-takes-all proprietorial schemes, condemning most market participants to deploy risky or clumsy workarounds. So it is significant that the Global Legal Entity Identifier Foundation (GLEIF), set up by the Financial Stability Board in 2014 to overcome a major accelerant of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009 – namely, the lack of a trusted counterparty identification standard on a global scale – has broadened its work to encompass digital assets. Dominic Hobson, co-founder of Future of Finance, spoke to Alex Kech, CEO of GLEIF. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

unSILOed with Greg LaBlanc
579. Dissecting Capitalism's Critics From the Industrial Revolution to AI feat. John Cassidy

unSILOed with Greg LaBlanc

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2025 55:30


It's not hard to find critics of capitalism in the current moment but this has always been true: as long as we have had capitalism we have had critics of capitalism. What are the recurring themes of these critiques and how have they helped to shape the economics profession and capitalism itself?John Cassidy is an author at the New Yorker magazine and also the author of several books. His most recent two are Capitalism and Its Critics: A History: From the Industrial Revolution to AI and How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities.Greg and John discuss the multifaceted and varied criticisms of capitalism throughout history. Over the course of the conversation, Greg recounts how John's books have investigated economic crises, the behavioral finance revolution, and the diverse critiques of capitalism from both the left and right. John brings up several examples of historical economic figures, from Adam Smith to Marx, and examines how crises have shaped economic thought and policy. Greg and John also make a point to highlight lesser-known critics and movements, underscoring their unsung importance of economic history.*unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:When both the left and the right turn against capitalism04:05: In 2016, when Trump was running for the Republican nomination and Bernie Sanders was running for the Democratic nomination, I thought, if you go back into history, it's a long time since we've had sort of major candidates running for office as critics of capitalism from the right and the left. Bernie, of course, has always been a critic of capitalism. He's independent socialist—I'd call him a social democrat, but we can get into what those terms mean if you want. But what's really new was Trump, running from the right with a critique. I mean, people have sort of forgotten now, but when he started out, he was criticizing the banks. He was criticizing big businesses for offshoring. He was running with a critique of capitalism from the right. So that got me thinking about maybe there's a book in how we got here. How can America, sort of world capital of capitalism and always very supportive of the system, come to this state of affairs where the two major candidates are running against it basically?A historical approach to capitalism12:21: Capitalism means anything involving large-scale production on the basis of privately owned assets. Private means of production. And if you adopt that broad definition, then mercantile capitalism, slavery, the plantation economies is a form of capitalism.Why economists often miss the real economy09:51: I realized in sort of maybe the late nineties, early 2000s, that if you want to speak to an economist about what was going on in the economy and what's happening in Washington, there really wasn't much point in calling up Harvard or MIT or Chicago or whatever, because the economics department would say, "Well, we don't really have anybody who covers that. You need to go to the business school, or you need to go to the business economists." So I think maybe there's been a backlash against that since the Great Financial Crisis. I know there's been a lot of efforts inside various universities, especially in Europe, to make the syllabuses more relevant, more sort of real-world based. But I still think at the higher levels of the subject, it's still extremely abstract.Show Links:Recommended Resources:Adam SmithDot-com BubbleGreat RecessionNeoliberalismKeynesian EconomicsMilton FriedmanKarl MarxRosa LuxemburgIndustrial RevolutionCapitalismLudditeWilliam ThompsonRobert OwenThomas CarlyleGlobalizationDependency TheoryAnna WheelerFlora TristanJoan RobinsonRobert SolowPaul SamuelsonJ. C. KumarappaKarl PolanyiGuest Profile:Profile on The New YorkerWikipedia ProfileSocial Profile on XGuest Work:Amazon Author PageCapitalism and Its Critics: A History: From the Industrial Revolution to AIHow Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic CalamitiesDot.Con: The Greatest Story Ever Sold

Okay, Computer.
Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins: WAWD? Contrarians At The Gate

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2025 52:09


In this episode of the 'On The Tape' podcast, host Danny Moses, along with Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel, discuss several key topics in the financial markets. They start with a discussion about the newly launched "What Are We Doing" Substack newsletter, sharing insights into their process of delivering valuable content. The conversation covers the role of the Federal Reserve and its political dynamics, the rise of event contracts in sports gambling, and the potential impact of rescheduling cannabis regulations. Additionally, they delve into the investment prospects of uranium, natural gas, and China's market potential, emphasizing a contrarian, value-oriented investment approach. The episode concludes with a debate on the implications of the U.S. government taking stakes in private companies, especially outside of crisis scenarios. Timecodes 0:00 - WAWD Substack 4:50 - The Fed 19:20 - Event Contracts 26:45 - Cannabis 33:30 - Uranium 40:50 - INTC Stake --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The Shaun Thompson Show
August 20, 2025

The Shaun Thompson Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2025 108:30


Shaun shifts throught he news to prove Democrats know NOTHING! PLUS, Todd Sheets, author of the book 2008: What Really Happened - Understanding the Great Financial Crisis and the On Wealth and Progress newsletter, tells Shaun our educational system trashing capitalism is a huge problem for our economy and praises the AI Revolution as an opportunity for economic growth. Jake Goebbert talks to Shaun about our big summer party happening at Goebbert's Farm in Pingree Grove this Friday! And have you or a loved one been a victim of politically motivated free speech censorship by Big Tech? JC Sheppard, founder of Wimkin Social Media, has taken on Big Tech, Government and Legacy Media in a landmark free speech case seeking compensation for conservatives who lost their livelihoods over the past 6 years due to censorship and disinformation. Read the bill and sign up for the class action suit HERE.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Shaun Thompson Show
Todd Sheets

The Shaun Thompson Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2025 22:55


Todd Sheets, author of the book 2008: What Really Happened - Understanding the Great Financial Crisis and the On Wealth and Progress newsletter, tells Shaun our educational system trashing capitalism is a huge problem for our economy and praises the AI Revolution as an opportunity for economic growth.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Okay, Computer.
Bob Elliott: Uncensored, Unlimited & "Nonconsensus"

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2025 48:16


Bob Elliott, co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, joins the show to discuss his extensive investment experience, including his time as the head of investment research at Bridgewater Associates. The conversation covers Elliott's background, his work on significant economic events like the 2008 financial crisis, and the founding of Unlimited, which offers ETFs using machine learning for investment strategies. They discuss current macroeconomic issues such as the Federal Reserve's policies, global central bank actions, and economic conditions in regions like Japan, the UK, and China. They also delve into asset classes like gold, oil, and Bitcoin, and Elliott provides insights into the value of diversification and systematic investing over individual manager performance. Finally, they explore Unlimited's strategy of using technological advancements for hedge fund replication through ETFs. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 3:30 - GFC Lessons 7:05 - The Macro 12:30 - Global Central Banks 18:20 - Oil 20:40 - Gold & Bonds 26:05 - BTC & ETH Treasuries 33:45 - Private Credit 36:35 - Unlimited --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Denver Real Estate Investing Podcast
#577: Denver's $1 Condo Gets ZERO Visitors (What This Reveals About 2025)

Denver Real Estate Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2025 52:09


July 2025 Denver market trends reveal a shocking new low with a $1 condo listing that couldn't attract a single visitor to its open house. This extreme example highlights broader market dynamics showing inventory levels matching 2011 and transaction volumes at Great Financial Crisis levels despite massive population growth.

Macro Musings with David Beckworth
Aditi Sahasrabuddhe on the Role Central Banker Relationships Play in Economic Crises

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2025 59:04


Aditi Sahasrabuddhe is a political scientist at Brown University and the author of the new book, Banker's Trust: How Social Relations Avert Global Financial Collapse. In Aditi's first appearance on the show, she discusses how central bankers' relationships in the 1920's impacted the global economy, how the ending of those relationships played a part in the Great Depression, how we can apply those principles to the Great Recession and the present, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on July 30th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:50 - Aditi's Intellectual Journey 00:03:57 - Louis Franck at the National Bank of Belgium 00:05:46 - Relationships and Crisis 00:11:07 - Central Bank Club 00:17:06 - Central Bankers and the Butterfly Effect 00:22:33 - Montagu Norman and Benjamin Strong 00:32:06 - Émile Moreau 00:34:48 - Japan 00:38:11 - Benjamin Strong and the Great Depression 00:48:55 - Great Financial Crisis 00:51:18 - India 00:55:25 - Jerome Powell the Central Banker 00:58:23 - Outro

Catching Up To FI
Late Starter Real Numbers: 1.5 M ➜ 864 K — And Back Again | J. C. & Bev Webber | 163

Catching Up To FI

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2025 70:28 Transcription Available


J.C. and Bev Webber's late-starter journey is proof that resilience + innovation can outrun even a Great Financial Crisis. J.C. gives us his real numbers and how he sprinted from a net worth of ~$120k (age 51) to $1.5M (age 57)—only to see it crash to ~$864k in early 2009. But that didn't derail their plans because he and his wife Bev still retired early and hit the road in their RV. You could say they reached FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) before it was hot! In this episode they walk us through all the twists and turns, giving us the excruciating details that you rarely hear about, including: J.C.'s brother-in-law bailing him out of credit-card debt by loaning him money J.C.'s military service and using the GI Bill hack college Ditching dead-end jobs for higher paying tech careers and eventually retiring from Apple Weathering multiple divorces and proving that it doesn't have to ruin your finances The unshakeable confidence in their human capital  Plans to live out their later years in Mexico   ===    VOTE FOR US: PLUTUS AWARDS  === We need your vote for the 2025 Plutus Awards! You can now vote for your hosts behind "Catching Up to FI” - Bill Yount & Jackie Cummings Koski.   ✅ WHAT IS THE PLUTUS AWARDS? The Plutus Awards recognize excellence in independent financial content. That's the best podcasts, books, video channels, blogs, and more.     ✅ VOTE  If you've gotten value from our content and think we are worthy of recognition,  please support by casting your votes here > >>  https://plutus.awardsplatform.com/. There's a short registration needed to vote and you'll be in and out in just a few minutes.    ✅ DEADLINE The deadline to vote is August 30th, 2025. Winners will be announced in October.   ✅ CATEGORIES Below are the categories we have been nominated for and we'd love your vote in each of them.  Catching Up to FI Best New Personal Finance Content Creator - Audio Content Creator of the Year: Audio People's Choice: Audio Best Financial Advisor Content/Jackie Cummings Koski, CFP Plutus Storyteller Award Best Traditional Retirement Content Best Personal Finance Content for Underserved Communities Best Personal Finance Content for Women   Other categories  Best New Personal Finance Content Creator - Written (F.I.R.E. for Dummies) Best New Personal Finance Book (F.I.R.E. for Dummies) Plutus Resilience Award (Jackie Cummings Koski) Best Financial Independence or Retire Early Content (F.I.R.E. for Dummies)  

Okay, Computer.
Phil Rosen: Market Facts Can Be Stranger Than Fiction

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2025 39:36


Danny interviews Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. Phil shares his journey from being a travel blogger to becoming a renowned financial journalist. Despite his youth, Phil has a wealth of experience, having lived on three continents, authored two Amazon bestselling books, and being a Fulbright scholar. He talks about his passion for journalism, which allows him to explore various interests daily, and how his reading habit, inculcated by his father, led him to writing. Phil touches upon his transition into financial journalism, his stint at Business Insider, and the inspiration behind starting Opening Bell Daily with Anthony Pompliano. He emphasizes the importance of data-driven analysis in financial reporting and the cautious yet optimistic stance he maintains. The discussion also covers Phil's views on cryptocurrency, the role of the Federal Reserve, and the challenges faced by young investors today. --ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Real Estate Espresso
The Echo From 2008

Real Estate Espresso

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 9, 2025 5:24


On today's show we are looking at an echo from the Great Financial Crisis. There was collapse of a banking house of cards triggered a drop in lending liquidity which then precipitated a fall in real estate prices. There were several areas across the US that got caught up in that mess in a big way. On today's show we are looking at which areas of the country are currently experiencing negative equity and comparing them to counties that were similarly affected in the period from 2008-2012. In that time, the recovery only started in 2013. It took a full 8 years for prices to re-normalize in many of those areas. Right now, there are a few areas in California, Florida, New York, Illinois, and Texas that are experiencing negative equity. Washington DC is also on the list, but in my opinion for different reasons.Now I'm not here to tell you that we are experiencing a repeat of 2008. But I find it interesting that some of the same markets that experienced the most negative equity in 2008 are also the same ones experiencing negative equity today in 2025. This is a time when you need to be particularly careful. There are people still quoting growth statistics for these areas that frankly in my estimation are no longer valid. Yes, there are national home builders planning large scale gated communities with thousands of homes in the future. But I can also tell you that these builders will not be building at the same pace in an environment where inventories are surging and equity is evaporating. ----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Okay, Computer.
James Lavish: Bitcoin Maxi Meets Bitcoin Mini

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2025 47:16


Danny Moses is joined by James Lavish, co-founder and co-manager of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. They discuss their shared views on macroeconomic issues such as unsustainable debt and the vulnerability of fiat currencies. James describes his journey from a Yale hockey player to a Wall Street trader and Bitcoin enthusiast. The conversation covers the impact of policy and regulation in the crypto space, the fallout from Celsius and FTX, and how James's fund capitalized on market volatility. James provides insights into Bitcoin's unique value compared to other assets and the broader adoption of digital currencies. They also touch on U.S. Treasury strategies, the role of stable coins, and the significance of recent legislative acts. The episode concludes with thoughts on the current economic situation and investment strategies. Global Asset Landscape: https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1919385198795338165 --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The New Bazaar
Bubbly markets and the TACO trade

The New Bazaar

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2025 68:11


Rob Armstrong is the writer who first coined the acronym in The TACO Trade, which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out, in a column back in April. He wasn't trying to go viral, much less have the acronym circulate throughout Wall Street and the media, much less have President Trump be asked about it. But that's what happened. Armstrong is the Unhedged columnist and podcaster at the Financial Times. He also had a prior career at a hedge fund, which abruptly ended in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He also has a PhD in philosophy, making him an unusual figure in the world of finance and economics journalism. The topics he writes about reflect this varied background. He and Cardiff reflect on the strangeness of coining a term that has such reverberations in a prominent national conversation, in this case the one surrounding President Trump's tariff strategy, and whether the trade itself still applies. They also discuss how the feedback loops created by the acronym represent the fundamental nature of markets and the ways that societal narratives get around these days. But the main part of their chat is about US markets at the moment. Are they in a bubble? Why has there not been more of a negative effect from tariffs? And why has the US dollar fallen — and stayed fallen — while US stocks have returned to all-time highs just this week? What should we make of the horrific returns on long-term Treasuries this decade? And are higher interest rates truly here to stay? They also discuss Rob's switch from working in finance to writing about it, and his recent column on Rene Girard and the mimetic rivalries that seem to define this political moment. Finally, they close with a surprising topic that Rob frequently also writes and speaks about: men's fashion. Related links: The Unhedged Newsletter (Rob Armstrong)Unhedged Podcast (Katie Martin with Rob)A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson)The Overshoot (Matt Klein)Feed Me (Emily Sundberg)Rob's Life & Arts columnRob's FT style column Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Build Your Network
Make Money by Building Investor Confidence | Andrew Reichert

Build Your Network

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2025 29:59


Andrew Reichert is the CEO and founder of Birgo Capital, a Pittsburgh-based private equity real estate firm with $330M+ in assets under management and 3,600+ multifamily units. Having raised over $125M from investors, he oversees a team of 100+, is a bestselling author, keynote speaker, and podcast host. Andrew embodies the first-generation entrepreneur scaling from small “no money down” deals to leading nine-figure institutional real estate investments. On this episode we talk about: Andrew's beginnings: working restaurant jobs in high school, reading Rich Dad Poor Dad, and buying his first duplex straight out of college—with literally no money, no experience, and no credit Creative real estate deals before the Great Financial Crisis: stacking first and second mortgages for $20K in cash at closing, and holding through 2008 due to conservative numbers Growing from “house hacking” to 20 units while working at PNC Bank—then going all in on real estate entrepreneurship The start of Birgo Capital: launching the first $10M fund (ultimately oversubscribed at $17M) by innovating deal structure and aligning incentives with investors How he raised capital early: putting his own money in every deal, personally guaranteeing debt, and refusing management fees so all profit came from performance and carried interest Evolving capital structures as the company grew, with bigger investors seeking more traditional private equity fee models The “alignment of incentives” philosophy: why reputation, stewardship, and risk-sharing drive trust and investor confidence Mindset: expecting big outcomes, focusing on stewardship, and building toward $1B in assets under management Advice for new investors—how the right deal structure, total transparency, and performance alignment become powerful capital-raising tools Top 3 Takeaways Alignment of Incentives Raises Capital: Early success in raising millions comes from putting your own money on the line, personally guaranteeing loans, and only getting paid after your investors get paid—a structure that's impossible to say no to. From Small Deals to Big Funds: Anyone can start with “no money down”—but scaling to “big money raised” requires obsession with stewardship, track record, and structuring win-win deals for both small and large investors. Growth Is a Mindset: Expecting and planning for outsize results is key—set big goals, focus on serving your people and your capital, and build with humility and discipline. Notable Quotes “Our first deal? No money, no experience, no credit—but I walked away from closing with a $20,000 check.” “We wouldn't make a dime unless the investment performed. Investors got paid first, then we participated in the upside. It made the decision a no-brainer for backers.” “Larger investors want the fees and structure they're used to. But trust still comes down to alignment and stewardship.” “I always expected this to get big—our goal is $1B by 2030. For me, it's about serving more investors and stewarding more assets.” Connect with Andrew Reichert: Company: Birgo Capital (birgo.com)

Okay, Computer.
Michael A. Gayed: "Few" Have More Passion For Markets

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2025 43:52


Danny Moses is joined by Michael A. Gayed, founder of the Lead Lag Report, to discuss his new venture, the Free Markets ETF, which focuses on stocks benefiting from deregulation. The conversation covers a range of topics including the Japanese yield curve, the US debt and the Federal Reserve, and the potential impacts of deregulation on various sectors. Michael also discusses his personal journey, including his father's influence and his recent health regimen involving fasting. The episode delves into the role of banks in supporting the US Treasury, the nuances of private credit, and the future outlook for crypto and gold. Michael shares insights on the potential for increased market volatility due to deregulation and the challenges of managing funds in an unpredictable economic environment. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Stories from the River
Building Broad River Retail: How We Play the Game of Business | Part 1 (2003-2014)

Stories from the River

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2025 35:21


Welcome back to Stories from the River and a brand new summer series! This new series comes from a talk that CEO Charlie Malouf gave to the retail leaders on July 10th, 2025, at the in-person, offsite, monthly GM Rx meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina. The acronym 'Rx' stands for "Retail Excellence" and also is our prescription for how we win the month, the quarter, and the year. The topic of this talk and of this series began as "Monthly Budgets Explained." But, to really explain the way that the Company sets its monthly budgets, Charlie presented the full story of how we got here with a presentation that can be called, "The Story of Broad River Retail and the Way We Play the Game - Our Version of the Great Game of Business." In the first part of this talk, Charlie took a moment to reminisce on Broad River Retail's beginnings. This episode is part one of a four part series that will feature Charlie's keynote from the meeting as well as some audience questions.  In this first episode, Charlie addresses the much-requested topic of how monthly budgets are developed, emphasizing the importance of transparency and context. He shares stories from the company's foundational years (2003 - 2014), tracing its journey from its early days as Ish Moore, Inc., the establishment of the 2nd operating company, Hillsboro Retail Group, Inc., and the creation of the 3rd operating company, Broad River Furniture, Inc.  Through significant milestones, challenges during the Great Recession, buying out one of the cofounders, surviving the Great Financial Crisis, and pivotal decisions that shaped Broad River into the premier Ashley Store operator it is today. Charlie relates lessons learned from both successes and failures, highlighting the company's relentless pursuit of excellence and the value of collaboration.  In the next episode, Charlie will be focusing on the transformative events of 2015 and beyond.  Additional Resources: Nick Saban Video Clip on High Standards that was played at the beginning of this presentation - "Mediocre People Don't Like High Achievers, and High Achievers Don't Like Mediocre People" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14_PNe3lcaE From Stories from the River General Manager Series - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLYZpX9KD7OqbAb8ZN5KEk5fCQt0vLMaXR From Stories from the River Founders Scholarship Fund Series - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLYZpX9KD7Oqb22Apq_6qBhE2-KZlRpN56 From Broad River's Archives - the Savvy Spaces YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/@SavvyFurniture "The Great Game of Business" by Jack Stack - https://www.amazon.com/Great-Game-Business-Expanded-Updated/dp/0385348339 The Great Game of Business - https://www.greatgame.com/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ZacOr4KMGqk  Visit https://www.storiesfromtheriver.com for more episodes. Broad River Retail brought this show to you. Visit https://BroadRiverRetail.com                                Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/broad-river-retail  

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast
You Could Have More Equity Than You Think! (How to Use It)

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2025 41:40


It's the situation every real estate investor wants to be in: your house just appraised for more than you expected. Now, you've got some home equity added to your net worth, but how do you use it? Should you keep it in the property and maintain low leverage, or use home equity to scale your real estate portfolio more quickly? We're answering common real estate questions like this one and a lot more in today's show! James Dainard joins the show as our veteran real estate investor, owning hundreds of rental units, flipping thousands of houses, and lending millions of dollars. He started as a rookie during the Great Financial Crisis, and today, he's sharing his hard-earned lessons so you don't have to make the same mistakes. We're touching on: What to do with your home equity when your house appraises high How to estimate rehab costs on a renovation or house flip  Becoming a private money lender (serious passive income!) Interior design 101, even if you have zero experience in home renovations  Whether we should finally kill the 1% rule in real estate (maybe it's time) Got an investing question? Ask yours on the BiggerPockets Forums!  In This Episode We Cover How to use home equity to invest (and whether you should with 7% mortgage rates) Estimating renovation costs on your next rehab or house flip (for free!) Interior design on a budget and how to build a “spec list” of what your house flip needs Private money lending for beginners and how to (passively) make serious cash flow The 1% rule explained and why it isn't so safe in 2025  And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1148 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Acquired
The Jamie Dimon Interview

Acquired

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2025 66:02


We sit down with Jamie Dimon for a live conversation at Radio City Music Hall, covering the incredible journey from his 1998 firing at Citgroup (where he was widely expected to become CEO) to building the most powerful bank in the world. Today JPMorgan Chase is a juggernaut — the most systemically important non-governmental financial institution in the world, with over twice the market capitalization of its nearest competitor. But it certainly wasn't always this way! Jamie takes us from his career restart at the struggling Chicago-based Bank One through how he transformed that platform into the foundation for the modern JPMorgan Chase. We dive into the “fortress balance sheet” strategy that has defined his tenure, and cover blow-by-blow Jamie's approach to the Great Financial Crisis, Bear Stearns, WaMu, First Republic and more. Tune in for an incredible conversation, live from New York City's most iconic venue!Sponsors:Many thanks to our fantastic Summer ‘25 Season partners:J.P. Morgan PaymentsVercelAnthropicStatsigEpisode image photo credit: Rockefeller CenterMore Acquired:Get email updates with hints on next episode and follow-ups from recent episodesJoin the SlackSubscribe to ACQ2Check out the latest swag in the ACQ Merch Store!‍Note: Acquired hosts and guests may hold assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. You should do your own research and make your own independent decisions when considering any financial transactions.

Okay, Computer.
Cameron Dawson: Where Is My Mind?

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2025 45:40


Danny Moses welcomes Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth. They discuss the current state of the US economy and stock market as the second quarter earnings season begins. Topics include the role and impact of the Federal Reserve, tariffs, the economic surprise cycle, and market breadth. Cameron also shares insights on market valuation, demand for equities, and the influence of a shrinking supply of large-cap stocks due to buybacks. The conversation touches on the wealth effect, adjustments in investor positioning, and the status of the US dollar. Finally, they delve into factors driving investment decisions and the role of Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Hidden Forces
Investing in the Chaos: Macro Signals in a Bot-Filled World | Le Shrub

Hidden Forces

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2025 50:13


In Episode 427 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Le Shrub, the author of the Shrubstack Substack who in his previous life was part of a famous team known for putting on “The Big Short” during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. This recording is the result of a phone call Demetri made to Le Shrub to catch up on markets and life after returning from a recent trip to Italy where he spent time with some guests of the podcast discussing the effect that rapid technological changes are having on the evolution of human societies, culture, politics, and the economy. Le Shrub and Kofinas spend the first hour exploring some of these themes and the collective sense in Western countries that our governing systems, societal norms, and democratic institutions are unraveling at a quickening pace, hurdling us toward some inexorable economic and political reset. They shift their focus in the second hour toward the markets as Le Shrub educates listeners on his investment process and how it has fared in this increasingly chaotic information landscape where signal is often drowned by a cacophony of bad information spread by malicious actors, uninformed clout chasers, and bots. This includes a discussion about how Le Shrub has sought to monetize the second order effects of the most recent Trump tariffs on copper and the Brazilian economy. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/10/2025

The Gray Report Podcast
The Big Beautiful Multifamily Market

The Gray Report Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 11, 2025 80:29


The recent passage of the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful Bill," which permanently restores major tax benefits like 100% bonus depreciation, among other tax breaks, has been very well received among real estate investors. On the other hand, multiple recent reports on the multifamily forcefully confront the possibility of a continued downturn in the apartment market, but the enormous amount of demand and the significantly lower levels of construction activity are clear indicators that, after more than 2 years of stagnation and cooldowns, apartment market fundamentals are poised for major positive growth moving forward.Link to sources discussed in this episode:Trepp: “Senate's 'One Big Beautiful Bill': CRE Tax Wins Clouded by Rising Rate Pressures” - https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/senates-one-big-beautiful-bill-cre-tax-wins-clouded-by-rising-rate-pressuresThe Wall Street Journal: “Where Things Stand with Trump's Tariffs” - https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariffs-countries-goods-explained-b9878e1aCoStar: “US apartment rent growth eases for first time since early 2024” - https://product.costar.com/home/news/398384473RealPage: “Resilient Demand and Still-Muted Rent Growth Defines U.S. Apartment Market in 2nd Quarter 2025” - https://www.realpage.com/analytics/2q-2025-data-update/CRED iQ: “Tracking CRE Delinquency Trends: Insights from the Great Financial Crisis to Q1 2025” - https://cred-iq.com/blog/2025/07/02/tracking-cre-delinquency-trends-insights-from-the-great-financial-crisis-to-q1-2025/Learn more about Gray Capital's Midwest Multifamily Fund: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/midwest Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/future Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

The Shaun Thompson Show
July 9, 2025

The Shaun Thompson Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2025 107:10


Democrats are an organized mafia. PLUS, Shaun asks Todd Sheets, author of the On Wealth and Progress newsletter and the book 2008: What Really Happened - Understanding the Great Financial Crisis, why we have so much socialism in the United States. And Tom DiLorenzo, President of the Mises Institute, talks to Shaun about the evils of bureaucracies, why so many Democrat cities are in bankruptcy, and Trump's tariff plan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Shaun Thompson Show

Shaun asks Todd Sheets, author of the On Wealth and Progress newsletter and the book 2008: What Really Happened - Understanding the Great Financial Crisis, why we have so much socialism in the United States.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Okay, Computer.
Luke Gromen: Black Diamond Markets & The Avalanche of Worry

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2025 43:26


In this episode of On the Tape, Luke Gromen, founder and president of Forest for the Trees, returns to discuss current market trends. Luke anticipates that the back half of 2025 may be positive for risk assets due to benefits from the tax bill, deregulation, and dollar weakness, though he maintains long-term concerns. He sees gold and Bitcoin benefiting from market volatility and explores the implications of the dollar's decline as the world's reserve currency. The discussion also covers the Federal Reserve's strategies, tariffs, and China's influence on global conflict dynamics. Luke shares insights on why he remains net bullish for the second half of the year, while also highlighting short-term concerns. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - Where We Left Off 8:40 - The Dollar 14:45 - Tax Bill Fallout 19:30 - The Fed 29:55 - Gold/Oil Ratio 37:30 - Bitcoin --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Okay, Computer.
Adam Parker: Margin Expansion = Multiple Expansion

Okay, Computer.

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 2, 2025 36:27


Danny Moses welcomes Adam Parker, founder, CEO, and Chief Strategist at Trivariate Research. They discuss several important topics, such as US dollar weakness and its potential long-term impacts, margin expansion in tech and healthcare sectors, and Adam's favorable outlook on financial services stocks. Adam also shares his background and provides insights into Trivariate's offerings for both retail and institutional investors. Other key points include the potential for AI to enhance productivity in various sectors, the implications of interest rates and market conditions, and the future prospects for energy markets. Throughout the discussion, Adam emphasizes the potential for strategic stock picking and navigating economic fluctuations effectively. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Thoughts on the Market
The U.S. Housing Market Slowdown

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 30, 2025 8:04


The U.S. housing market appears to be stuck. Our co-heads of Securitized Product research, Jay Bacow and James Egan, explain how supply and demand, as well as mortgage rates, play a role in the cooling market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And after getting through last week's blistering hot temperatures, today we're going to talk about what may be a cooling housing market. It's Monday, June 30th at 2:30pm in New York. Now, Jim, home prices. We just got another index. They set another record high, but the pace of growth – the acceleration as a physicist in me wants to say – appears to be slowing. What's going on here?James Egan: The pace of home price growth reported this month was 2.7 percent. That is the lowest that it's been since August of 2023. And in our view, the reason's pretty simple. Supply is increasing, while demand has stalled.Jay Bacow: But Jim, this was a report for the spring selling season. I know we got it in June, but this is supposed to be the busiest time of the year. People are happy to go around. They're looking at moving over the summer when the kids aren't in school. We should be expecting the supply to increase. Are you saying that it's happening more than it's anticipated?James Egan: That is what we're saying. Now, we should be expecting inventories today to be higher than they were in, call it January or February. That's exactly the seasonality that you're referring to. But it's the year-over-year growth we're paying attention to here. Homes listed for sale are up year-over-year, 18 months in a row. And that pace, it's been accelerating. Over the past 40 years, the pace of growth from this past month was only eclipsed one time, the Great Financial Crisis.Jay Bacow: [sighs] I always get a little worried when the housing analyst brings up the Great Financial Crisis. Are you saying that this time the demand isn't responding?James Egan: That is what we're saying. So, through the first five months of this year, existing home sales are only down about 2 percent versus the first five months of 2024. So they've basically kind of plateaued at these levels. But that also means that we're seeing the fewest number of transactions through May in a calendar year since 2009. And that combination of easing inventory and lackluster demand, it's pushed months of supply back to levels that we haven't seen since the beginning of this pandemic. Call it the fourth quarter of 2019, first quarter of 2020, right before inventory has really plummeted to historic lows.Jay Bacow: All right, so 2009, another financial crisis reference. But you're also – you're speaking around a national level, and as a housing analyst, I feel like you haven't really spoken about the three most important factors when we think about things which are: Location. Location. And location.James Egan: Absolutely. And the deceleration that we're seeing in home price growth – and I would point out it is still growth – has been pervasive across the country. Year-over-year, HPA is now decelerating in 100 percent of the top 100 MSAs, for which we have data. In fact, a full quarter of them, 25 percent of these cities are now actually seeing prices decline on a year-over-year basis. And that's up from just 5 percent with declining home prices one year ago.Jay Bacow: As a homeowner, I do like the home price growth. And is it the same story when you look more narrowly around supply and demand?James Egan: So, there might be some geographical nuances, but we do think that it largely boils down to that. Local inventory growth has been a very good indicator of weaker home price performance, particularly the level of for-sale inventory today versus that fourth quarter of 2019. If we look at it on a geographic basis, of 14 MSAs that have the highest level of inventory today compared to 2019, 11 of them are in either Florida or Texas. On the other end of the spectrum, the cities where inventory remains furthest away from where it was four and a half years ago, they're in the Northeast, they're in the Midwest.Jay Bacow: As somebody who lives in the Northeast, I'd like to hear that again. But you're also; you're quoting existing prices, which that's been the outperformer in the housing market. Right?James Egan: Exactly. New home prices have actually been decreasing year-over-year for the past year and a half at this point. It's actually brought the basis between new home prices, which tend to trade at a little bit of a premium to existing sales; it's brought that basis to its tightest level that we've seen in at least 30 years. And that's before we take into account the fact that home builders have been buying down some of these mortgage rates. But Jay, you've recently done some work trying to size this.Jay Bacow: Yeah. First it might help to explain what a buydown is.A home builder might have a new home listed at say, $450,000. And with mortgage rates in the context of about 6.5 percent right now, the home buyer might not be able to afford that, so they offer to pay less. The home builder – often many of them also have an origination arm as well. They'll say, you know what? We'll sell it to you at that $450,000, but we'll give you a lower mortgage rate; instead of 6.5 percent, we'll sell it to you for $450,000 with a 5 percent mortgage rate. Then maybe the home buyer can afford that.James Egan: And so, new home prices are actually coming down. And by that we're specifically referring to the median price of new home transactions. They're falling despite the fact that these buy downs might be influencing prices a little bit higher.Jay Bacow: Right. And when we look at how often this is happening, it's a little actually hard to get it from the data because they don't have to report it. But when we look at the distribution of mortgage rates in a given month – prior to 2022, there were effectively no purchase loans that were originated less than one point below the prevailing mortgage rate for a given month.However, more recently we're up to about 12 percent of Ginnie Mae purchases, and those are the more credit constrained borrowers that might have a harder time buying a home. And about 5 percent of conventional purchase loans are getting originated with a rate 1 percent below the outstanding marketJames Egan: And so, this might be another sign that we're seeing a little bit of softening in home prices. But what are the implications on the agency mortgage side?Jay Bacow: I would say there's probably two things that we're keeping an eye out on. Because these are homeowners that are getting below market rate, the investors are getting a below market coupon. And because they're getting sold at a discount, they don't want that, but they're going to stay around for a while. So, investors are getting these rates that they don't want for longer.And then the other thing you think about from the home buyer perspective is, you know, maybe they – it's good for them right now. But if they want to sell that home, because they're getting a below market mortgage rate, they bought the home for maybe more than other people would've. So, unless they can sell it with that mortgage attached, which is very difficult to do, they probably have to sell it for a lower price than when they bought it.Now Jim, what does all this mean for home prices going forward?James Egan: Now, when we think about home prices, we're talking about the home price indices, right? And so those are going to be repeat sales. It's going to, by definition, look at existing prices and not necessarily the dynamics we're talking in the new home price market.Jay Bacow: Okay, so all this builder buy down stuff is interesting for what it means for new home prices – but doesn't impact all the HPA indices that you reference.James Egan: Exactly, and at the national level, despite what we've been talking about on this podcast, we do think that home prices remain more supported than what we are seeing locally. Inventory is increasing, but it also remains near historically low levels. Months of supply that I mentioned at the top of this podcast, it's picked up to the highest level it's been since the beginning of this pandemic. We're also talking about four to four and a half months of supply. Anything below six is a tight environment that has been historically associated with home prices continuing to climb.That's why our base case is for positive HPA this year. We're at +2 percent. That's slower than where we are now. We think you're going to continue to see deceleration. And because of what we're seeing from a supply and demand perspective, we are a little bit more skewed to the downside in our bear case. Instead of that +2, we're at -3 percent than we are towards the upside in our bull case. Instead of that plus two, we're at plus 5 percent in the bull case. So slower HPA from here, but still positive.Jay Bacow: Well, Jim, it's always a pleasure talking to you, particularly when you're highlighting that the home price growth is going to be stronger in the place where I own a home.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to all of you listening, thank you for listening to another episode of Thoughts on the Market. Please leave a review or a like wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button.

Straight Up Chicago Investor
Episode 381: How Chicago's Powerhouse Lender Renovo Financial Was Built with Kevin Werner

Straight Up Chicago Investor

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2025 71:05


Properties for Sale on the North Side?  We want to buy them. Email: StraightUpChicagoInvestor@gmail.com Have a vacancy? We can place your next tenant and give you back 30-40 hours of your time. Learn more: GCRealtyInc.com/tenant-placement Has Property Mgmt become an opportunity cost for you? Let us lower your risk and give you your time back to grow. Learn more: GCRealtyinc.com ============= Kevin Werner, CEO of Renovo Financial, has over 20 years of experience building and scaling successful lending companies! Kevin discusses his start in the lending business including his first company that did not survive the Great Financial Crisis. He shares lessons learned from lending through the Housing Crash and how those insights coupled with great relationships lead to the inception of Renovo Financial. Kevin gives the philosophy that has led to Renovo's explosive growth the last decade including thriving through the uncertainty of COVID. Throughout the show, Kevin drops powerful outlooks on business, customer service, and relationships that you'll want to remember and implement! If you enjoy today's episode, please leave us a review and share with someone who may also find value in this content! ============= Connect with Mark and Tom: StraightUpChicagoInvestor.com Email the Show: StraightUpChicagoInvestor@gmail.com Guest: Kevin Werner, Renovo Financial Link: Kevin's LinkedIn Link: All-In Podcast Link: King of Capital (Book Recommendation) Guest Questions 01:51 Housing Provider Tip - Understand the power of being decisive and taking action! 03:18 Intro to our guest, Kevin Werner! 10:44 Getting a loan business off the ground in the 90s. 15:28 Lending through the Housing Crash! 34:21 The business model of lending business. 45:27 Renovo's explosive growth through COVID into 2025! 60:18 Kevin's parenting philosophy and outlook on Chicago! 63:24 What is your competitive advantage? 64:20 One piece of advice for new investors. 64:53 What do you do for fun? 66:04 Good book, podcast, or self development activity that you would recommend?  66:53 Local Network Recommendation?  68:38 How can the listeners learn more about you and provide value to you? ----------------- Production House: Flint Stone Media Copyright of Straight Up Chicago Investor 2025.

Thoughts on the Market
U.S. Financials Conference: Three Key Themes to Watch

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2025 10:09


Our analysts Betsy Graseck, Manan Gosalia and Ryan Kenny discuss the major discussions they expect to highlight Morgan Stanley's upcoming U.S. Financials conference.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Bank Analyst and Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research. Today we take a look at the key debates in the U.S. financials industry. It's Monday, June 9th at 10:30am in New York.Tomorrow Morgan Stanley kicks off its annual U.S. Financials Conference right here in New York City. We wanted to give you a glimpse into some of the most significant themes that we expect will be addressed at the conference. And so, I'm here with two of my colleagues, Manan Gosalia, U.S. Midcap Banks Analyst, and Ryan Kenny, U.S. Midcaps Advisor Analyst.Investors are grappling with navigating economic uncertainty from new tariff policies, inflation concerns, and immigration challenges – all of which impacts financial growth and credit quality. On the positive side, they are also looking closely at regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, which could ease banking rules for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis.Let's hear what our experts are expecting. Manan, ahead of the conference, what key themes do you expect mid-cap banks will highlight?Manan Gosalia: So, there are three key themes that we've been focused on for the mid-cap banks: loan growth, net interest margins, and capital. So, first on loan growth. Loan growth for the regional banks has been fairly tepid at about 2 to 3 percent year-on-year, and the tone from bank management teams has been fairly mixed in the April earning season that followed the tariff announcements on April 2nd. Some banks were starting to see the uncertainty weigh on corporate decision making and borrowing activity, while others were only seeing a slow down in some parts of their portfolio, with a pickup in other parts. Now that we've had two months to digest the announcements and several more positive developments on tariff negotiations, we expect that the tone from bank management teams will be more positive. Now, we don't expect them to say growth is accelerating, but we do expect that they will say loan growth is holding up with strong pipelines. On the second topic, net interest margins, we expect to hear that there is still room for margin expansion as we go through this year. And that's coming in two places, particularly as bank term deposits continue to reprice lower. And then the back book of fixed rate loans and securities, essentially assets that were put on the books four to five years ago when rates were a lot lower, are now rolling over at today's higher rates. Betsy Graseck: So, is the long end of the curve going up a good thing?Manan Gosalia: Yes, for net interest margins. But on the flip side, the tenure going up is slightly negative for bank capital. So that brings me to my third theme. The regional banks are overall in a much better place on capital than they were two years ago. Balance sheets have improved. Capital levels remain solid across the sector. But the recent increase in the long end of the curve is marginally negative for capital, given that there will be a higher negative mark on securities that banks hold. But we believe that higher capital levels that regional banks have accumulated over the past couple of years will help cushion some of these negative marks, and we don't expect the recent shift in the tenure will have a meaningful impact on bank capital plans.Betsy Graseck: So, the increase in the 10-year pulls down capital a little bit, but not enough to trip any regulatory minimums?Manan Gosalia: Correct.Betsy Graseck: So, all in the 10-year yield going up is a good thing?Manan Gosalia: It's slightly negative, but I would expect it does not impact bank growth plans. Betsy Graseck: Okay. All in, what's the message from mid-cap banks?Manan Gosalia: All in, I would expect the tone to be a little more positive than the banks had at April earnings.Betsy Graseck: Excellent. Thanks so much, Manan. Ryan, what about you? What are you expecting mid-cap advisors will say?Ryan Kenny: So, I think we'll hear a lot about the trends in M&A. And when we last heard from investment bank management teams during April earnings, the messaging was more cautious. We heard about M&A deals being paused as companies processed the Liberation Day tariffs, and a small number of deals being pulled. Tomorrow at our conference, expect to hear a measured but slightly improved tone. Look, there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, but what's changed since April is the fact that the U.S. administration is flexing in response to markets. So that should help shore up more confidence needed to do deals, and there's tremendous pent-up demand for corporate activity. Over the last three years – so 2022 to 2024 – M&A volumes relative to nominal GDP have been running 30 to 40 percent below three-decade averages. Equity capital markets volumes 50 to 60 percent below average. There is tremendous need for private equity firms to exit their portfolio investments and deploy $4 trillion of dry powder that has accumulated and also structural themes for corporates – like the need for AI capabilities, energy and biotech consolidation and reshoring – that should fuel mergers as a cycle gets going.So, I think for this group, the message will likely be: April and May – more challenged from a deal flow perspective; but back up of the year, you should start to expect some improvement.Betsy Graseck: So slightly improved tone…Ryan Kenny: Slightly improved. And one of the other really interesting themes that the investment banks will talk about is the substantial growth of private capital advisory.So, this is advising private equity funds and owners on capital raising, liquidation, including secondary transactions and continuation funds. And what will be interesting is how the clients set here is growing. We've seen this quarter, major universities, some local governments that increasingly need liquidity and they're hiring investment banks to advise on selling private equity fund interests.It's really going to be a great discussion because private capital advisory is a major growth area for the boutique investment banks that I cover.Betsy Graseck: How big of a sleeve do you think this could become – as big as M&A outright?Ryan Kenny: Probably not as big as M&A outright, but significant. And it helps give the investment banks' relationships with financial sponsors who are active on the M&A front. So, it can be a share gain story.So, Betsy, what about you? You cover the large cap banks. What do you expect to hear?Betsy Graseck: Well, before I answer that, I do want to just put a pin on it.So, you're saying that for your coverage Ryan, we have some green shoots coming through...Ryan Kenny: Yeah, green shoots and more positive than in April.Betsy Graseck: And Manan on your side? Same?Manan Gosalia: A little bit more of a positive than April earnings, but more of the same as we heard at the start of the year.Betsy Graseck: Okay. Going back to the future then, I suppose we could say. Excellent. Well on large cap banks, I do expect large cap banks will be reflecting some of the same themes that you both just discussed. In particular, you know, we'll talk about IPOs. IPOs are holding up. We look at IPOs where we had 26 IPOs in the past week alone.That's up from 22 on average year-to-date in 2025. And I do think that the large cap banks will highlight that capital market activity is building and can accelerate from here, as long as equity volatility remains contained. By which we mean VIX is at 20 or below. And with capital market activity should come increased lending activity. It's very exciting. What's going on here is that when you do an M&A, you have to finance it, and that financing comes from either the bond market or banks or private credit. M&A financing is a key driver of CNI loan growth. A lot of people don't know that. And CNI loan growth, we do think will be moving from current levels of about 2 percent year-on-year, as per the most recent Fed H.8 data to 5 percent as M&A comes through over the next year plus. And then the other major driver of CNI loans is loans to non-depository financial institutions, which is also known as NDFI Loans. NDFI loans have been getting a lot of press recently. We see this as much ado about reclassification. That said, investors are asking what is the risk of this book of business? Our view is that it's similar to overall CNI loan risk, and we will dig into that outlook with managements at the conference. It'll be exciting. Additionally, we will touch on regulation and how easing of regulation could change strategies for capital utilization and capital deployment. So, you want to have an ear out for that. Well, Manan, Ryan, it's been great speaking with you today.Manan Gosalia: Should be an exciting conference.Ryan Kenny: Thanks for having us on.Betsy Graseck: And thanks for listening everyone. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

On The Tape
Porter Collins & Vincent Daniel: What Are We Doing?? | On The Tape Podcast

On The Tape

Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2025 51:22


SUBSCRIBE to 'On The Tape' YouTube: http://youtu.be/KGhR4WGAQ6w Apple: http://apple.co/3YGdXr9 Spotify: http://tinyurl.com/3kaxvtsy Danny Moses welcomes back former partners Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel from Seawolf Capital. The discussion begins with brief backgrounds of the guests and highlights from their careers, including their time at Goldman Sachs and founding Seawolf Capital. The conversation transitions into their perspectives on the current volatile market environment, where they discuss managing personal investments versus others' money, stock picking strategies, and the importance of upgrading portfolios during market downturns. The trio also delves into the impacts of tariffs, the importance of liquidity, and the role of gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. They share their investment strategies in sectors like energy, financial services, and discuss specific stocks such as Sable Offshore and Uranium. The episode concludes with lighter topics including sports betting and their predictions for the PGA Championship and the Preakness. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.