Podcasts about great financial crisis

It's the situation every real estate investor wants to be in: your house just appraised for more than you expected. Now, you've got some home equity added to your net worth, but how do you use it? Should you keep it in the property and maintain low leverage, or use home equity to scale your real estate portfolio more quickly? We're answering common real estate questions like this one and a lot more in today's show! James Dainard joins the show as our veteran real estate investor, owning hundreds of rental units, flipping thousands of houses, and lending millions of dollars. He started as a rookie during the Great Financial Crisis, and today, he's sharing his hard-earned lessons so you don't have to make the same mistakes. We're touching on: What to do with your home equity when your house appraises high How to estimate rehab costs on a renovation or house flip  Becoming a private money lender (serious passive income!) Interior design 101, even if you have zero experience in home renovations  Whether we should finally kill the 1% rule in real estate (maybe it's time) Got an investing question? Ask yours on the BiggerPockets Forums!  In This Episode We Cover How to use home equity to invest (and whether you should with 7% mortgage rates) Estimating renovation costs on your next rehab or house flip (for free!) Interior design on a budget and how to build a “spec list” of what your house flip needs Private money lending for beginners and how to (passively) make serious cash flow The 1% rule explained and why it isn't so safe in 2025  And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1148 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We sit down with Jamie Dimon for a live conversation at Radio City Music Hall, covering the incredible journey from his 1998 firing at Citgroup (where he was widely expected to become CEO) to building the most powerful bank in the world. Today JPMorgan Chase is a juggernaut — the most systemically important non-governmental financial institution in the world, with over twice the market capitalization of its nearest competitor. But it certainly wasn't always this way! Jamie takes us from his career restart at the struggling Chicago-based Bank One through how he transformed that platform into the foundation for the modern JPMorgan Chase. We dive into the “fortress balance sheet” strategy that has defined his tenure, and cover blow-by-blow Jamie's approach to the Great Financial Crisis, Bear Stearns, WaMu, First Republic and more. Tune in for an incredible conversation, live from New York City's most iconic venue!Sponsors:Many thanks to our fantastic Summer ‘25 Season partners:J.P. Morgan PaymentsVercelAnthropicStatsigEpisode image photo credit: Rockefeller CenterMore Acquired:Get email updates with hints on next episode and follow-ups from recent episodesJoin the SlackSubscribe to ACQ2Check out the latest swag in the ACQ Merch Store!‍Note: Acquired hosts and guests may hold assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. You should do your own research and make your own independent decisions when considering any financial transactions.

Danny Moses welcomes Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth. They discuss the current state of the US economy and stock market as the second quarter earnings season begins. Topics include the role and impact of the Federal Reserve, tariffs, the economic surprise cycle, and market breadth. Cameron also shares insights on market valuation, demand for equities, and the influence of a shrinking supply of large-cap stocks due to buybacks. The conversation touches on the wealth effect, adjustments in investor positioning, and the status of the US dollar. Finally, they delve into factors driving investment decisions and the role of Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

In Episode 427 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Le Shrub, the author of the Shrubstack Substack who in his previous life was part of a famous team known for putting on “The Big Short” during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. This recording is the result of a phone call Demetri made to Le Shrub to catch up on markets and life after returning from a recent trip to Italy where he spent time with some guests of the podcast discussing the effect that rapid technological changes are having on the evolution of human societies, culture, politics, and the economy. Le Shrub and Kofinas spend the first hour exploring some of these themes and the collective sense in Western countries that our governing systems, societal norms, and democratic institutions are unraveling at a quickening pace, hurdling us toward some inexorable economic and political reset. They shift their focus in the second hour toward the markets as Le Shrub educates listeners on his investment process and how it has fared in this increasingly chaotic information landscape where signal is often drowned by a cacophony of bad information spread by malicious actors, uninformed clout chasers, and bots. This includes a discussion about how Le Shrub has sought to monetize the second order effects of the most recent Trump tariffs on copper and the Brazilian economy. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/10/2025

The recent passage of the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful Bill," which permanently restores major tax benefits like 100% bonus depreciation, among other tax breaks, has been very well received among real estate investors. On the other hand, multiple recent reports on the multifamily forcefully confront the possibility of a continued downturn in the apartment market, but the enormous amount of demand and the significantly lower levels of construction activity are clear indicators that, after more than 2 years of stagnation and cooldowns, apartment market fundamentals are poised for major positive growth moving forward.Link to sources discussed in this episode:Trepp: “Senate's 'One Big Beautiful Bill': CRE Tax Wins Clouded by Rising Rate Pressures” - https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/senates-one-big-beautiful-bill-cre-tax-wins-clouded-by-rising-rate-pressuresThe Wall Street Journal: “Where Things Stand with Trump's Tariffs” - https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariffs-countries-goods-explained-b9878e1aCoStar: “US apartment rent growth eases for first time since early 2024” - https://product.costar.com/home/news/398384473RealPage: “Resilient Demand and Still-Muted Rent Growth Defines U.S. Apartment Market in 2nd Quarter 2025” - https://www.realpage.com/analytics/2q-2025-data-update/CRED iQ: “Tracking CRE Delinquency Trends: Insights from the Great Financial Crisis to Q1 2025” - https://cred-iq.com/blog/2025/07/02/tracking-cre-delinquency-trends-insights-from-the-great-financial-crisis-to-q1-2025/Learn more about Gray Capital's Midwest Multifamily Fund: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/midwest Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/future Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

Democrats are an organized mafia. PLUS, Shaun asks Todd Sheets, author of the On Wealth and Progress newsletter and the book 2008: What Really Happened - Understanding the Great Financial Crisis, why we have so much socialism in the United States. And Tom DiLorenzo, President of the Mises Institute, talks to Shaun about the evils of bureaucracies, why so many Democrat cities are in bankruptcy, and Trump's tariff plan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shaun asks Todd Sheets, author of the On Wealth and Progress newsletter and the book 2008: What Really Happened - Understanding the Great Financial Crisis, why we have so much socialism in the United States.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of On the Tape, Luke Gromen, founder and president of Forest for the Trees, returns to discuss current market trends. Luke anticipates that the back half of 2025 may be positive for risk assets due to benefits from the tax bill, deregulation, and dollar weakness, though he maintains long-term concerns. He sees gold and Bitcoin benefiting from market volatility and explores the implications of the dollar's decline as the world's reserve currency. The discussion also covers the Federal Reserve's strategies, tariffs, and China's influence on global conflict dynamics. Luke shares insights on why he remains net bullish for the second half of the year, while also highlighting short-term concerns. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - Where We Left Off 8:40 - The Dollar 14:45 - Tax Bill Fallout 19:30 - The Fed 29:55 - Gold/Oil Ratio 37:30 - Bitcoin --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Danny Moses welcomes Adam Parker, founder, CEO, and Chief Strategist at Trivariate Research. They discuss several important topics, such as US dollar weakness and its potential long-term impacts, margin expansion in tech and healthcare sectors, and Adam's favorable outlook on financial services stocks. Adam also shares his background and provides insights into Trivariate's offerings for both retail and institutional investors. Other key points include the potential for AI to enhance productivity in various sectors, the implications of interest rates and market conditions, and the future prospects for energy markets. Throughout the discussion, Adam emphasizes the potential for strategic stock picking and navigating economic fluctuations effectively. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The U.S. housing market appears to be stuck. Our co-heads of Securitized Product research, Jay Bacow and James Egan, explain how supply and demand, as well as mortgage rates, play a role in the cooling market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And after getting through last week's blistering hot temperatures, today we're going to talk about what may be a cooling housing market. It's Monday, June 30th at 2:30pm in New York. Now, Jim, home prices. We just got another index. They set another record high, but the pace of growth – the acceleration as a physicist in me wants to say – appears to be slowing. What's going on here?James Egan: The pace of home price growth reported this month was 2.7 percent. That is the lowest that it's been since August of 2023. And in our view, the reason's pretty simple. Supply is increasing, while demand has stalled.Jay Bacow: But Jim, this was a report for the spring selling season. I know we got it in June, but this is supposed to be the busiest time of the year. People are happy to go around. They're looking at moving over the summer when the kids aren't in school. We should be expecting the supply to increase. Are you saying that it's happening more than it's anticipated?James Egan: That is what we're saying. Now, we should be expecting inventories today to be higher than they were in, call it January or February. That's exactly the seasonality that you're referring to. But it's the year-over-year growth we're paying attention to here. Homes listed for sale are up year-over-year, 18 months in a row. And that pace, it's been accelerating. Over the past 40 years, the pace of growth from this past month was only eclipsed one time, the Great Financial Crisis.Jay Bacow: [sighs] I always get a little worried when the housing analyst brings up the Great Financial Crisis. Are you saying that this time the demand isn't responding?James Egan: That is what we're saying. So, through the first five months of this year, existing home sales are only down about 2 percent versus the first five months of 2024. So they've basically kind of plateaued at these levels. But that also means that we're seeing the fewest number of transactions through May in a calendar year since 2009. And that combination of easing inventory and lackluster demand, it's pushed months of supply back to levels that we haven't seen since the beginning of this pandemic. Call it the fourth quarter of 2019, first quarter of 2020, right before inventory has really plummeted to historic lows.Jay Bacow: All right, so 2009, another financial crisis reference. But you're also – you're speaking around a national level, and as a housing analyst, I feel like you haven't really spoken about the three most important factors when we think about things which are: Location. Location. And location.James Egan: Absolutely. And the deceleration that we're seeing in home price growth – and I would point out it is still growth – has been pervasive across the country. Year-over-year, HPA is now decelerating in 100 percent of the top 100 MSAs, for which we have data. In fact, a full quarter of them, 25 percent of these cities are now actually seeing prices decline on a year-over-year basis. And that's up from just 5 percent with declining home prices one year ago.Jay Bacow: As a homeowner, I do like the home price growth. And is it the same story when you look more narrowly around supply and demand?James Egan: So, there might be some geographical nuances, but we do think that it largely boils down to that. Local inventory growth has been a very good indicator of weaker home price performance, particularly the level of for-sale inventory today versus that fourth quarter of 2019. If we look at it on a geographic basis, of 14 MSAs that have the highest level of inventory today compared to 2019, 11 of them are in either Florida or Texas. On the other end of the spectrum, the cities where inventory remains furthest away from where it was four and a half years ago, they're in the Northeast, they're in the Midwest.Jay Bacow: As somebody who lives in the Northeast, I'd like to hear that again. But you're also; you're quoting existing prices, which that's been the outperformer in the housing market. Right?James Egan: Exactly. New home prices have actually been decreasing year-over-year for the past year and a half at this point. It's actually brought the basis between new home prices, which tend to trade at a little bit of a premium to existing sales; it's brought that basis to its tightest level that we've seen in at least 30 years. And that's before we take into account the fact that home builders have been buying down some of these mortgage rates. But Jay, you've recently done some work trying to size this.Jay Bacow: Yeah. First it might help to explain what a buydown is.A home builder might have a new home listed at say, $450,000. And with mortgage rates in the context of about 6.5 percent right now, the home buyer might not be able to afford that, so they offer to pay less. The home builder – often many of them also have an origination arm as well. They'll say, you know what? We'll sell it to you at that $450,000, but we'll give you a lower mortgage rate; instead of 6.5 percent, we'll sell it to you for $450,000 with a 5 percent mortgage rate. Then maybe the home buyer can afford that.James Egan: And so, new home prices are actually coming down. And by that we're specifically referring to the median price of new home transactions. They're falling despite the fact that these buy downs might be influencing prices a little bit higher.Jay Bacow: Right. And when we look at how often this is happening, it's a little actually hard to get it from the data because they don't have to report it. But when we look at the distribution of mortgage rates in a given month – prior to 2022, there were effectively no purchase loans that were originated less than one point below the prevailing mortgage rate for a given month.However, more recently we're up to about 12 percent of Ginnie Mae purchases, and those are the more credit constrained borrowers that might have a harder time buying a home. And about 5 percent of conventional purchase loans are getting originated with a rate 1 percent below the outstanding marketJames Egan: And so, this might be another sign that we're seeing a little bit of softening in home prices. But what are the implications on the agency mortgage side?Jay Bacow: I would say there's probably two things that we're keeping an eye out on. Because these are homeowners that are getting below market rate, the investors are getting a below market coupon. And because they're getting sold at a discount, they don't want that, but they're going to stay around for a while. So, investors are getting these rates that they don't want for longer.And then the other thing you think about from the home buyer perspective is, you know, maybe they – it's good for them right now. But if they want to sell that home, because they're getting a below market mortgage rate, they bought the home for maybe more than other people would've. So, unless they can sell it with that mortgage attached, which is very difficult to do, they probably have to sell it for a lower price than when they bought it.Now Jim, what does all this mean for home prices going forward?James Egan: Now, when we think about home prices, we're talking about the home price indices, right? And so those are going to be repeat sales. It's going to, by definition, look at existing prices and not necessarily the dynamics we're talking in the new home price market.Jay Bacow: Okay, so all this builder buy down stuff is interesting for what it means for new home prices – but doesn't impact all the HPA indices that you reference.James Egan: Exactly, and at the national level, despite what we've been talking about on this podcast, we do think that home prices remain more supported than what we are seeing locally. Inventory is increasing, but it also remains near historically low levels. Months of supply that I mentioned at the top of this podcast, it's picked up to the highest level it's been since the beginning of this pandemic. We're also talking about four to four and a half months of supply. Anything below six is a tight environment that has been historically associated with home prices continuing to climb.That's why our base case is for positive HPA this year. We're at +2 percent. That's slower than where we are now. We think you're going to continue to see deceleration. And because of what we're seeing from a supply and demand perspective, we are a little bit more skewed to the downside in our bear case. Instead of that +2, we're at -3 percent than we are towards the upside in our bull case. Instead of that plus two, we're at plus 5 percent in the bull case. So slower HPA from here, but still positive.Jay Bacow: Well, Jim, it's always a pleasure talking to you, particularly when you're highlighting that the home price growth is going to be stronger in the place where I own a home.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to all of you listening, thank you for listening to another episode of Thoughts on the Market. Please leave a review or a like wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button.

Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins to discuss a range of financial topics. They cover the state of the energy sector, financial markets, specific investment opportunities like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Sable Offshore, and Pure Cycle Technologies. They delve into macroeconomic factors influencing the market such as volatility, geopolitical events, and the Federal Reserve's policies. Discussions also include the rising relevance of AI and uranium, insights into bottom-up investing, short selling, and specific stocks like Tesla, Mr. Cooper, and BGC. The episode explores the impact of economic changes on the consumer credit market, the potential for housing market shifts, and the influence of stablecoins on Visa and MasterCard. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Host: Tracy Shuchart for MicDropMarketsThis spaces is brought to you by NinaTrader Live where you can find me every morning at 8AM ET to talk macro markets and at 2:30 PM ET to discuss the hot commodities of the day, streaming live on the NinjaTrader YouTube channel.Hugh HendryHugh Hendry is a writer, risk-taker, and thought leader on global capital markets. In 2002 he founded Eclectica Asset Management, a hedge fund that delivered uncorrelated returns to clients for over a decade. His prescience in anticipating the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 earned him a reputation as a prophetic iconoclast. Despite stepping back from active fund management, Hendry remains an influential voice in finance, leveraging his deep understanding of market dynamics and his contrarian mindset to provide a unique perspective on economic developments as the Acid Capitalist. Hendry now resides in St. Barts, where he is a leading investor in luxury real estate. Benn EifertBenn Eifert is CIO of QVR Advisors (Quantitative Volatility Research), a San Francisco-based investment firm that manages volatility and derivatives strategies. Benn was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria, a relative value hedge fund on the Mariner Investment Group platform. Before Coria, Benn was head of quantitative research and derivatives trader for the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became the hedge fund Overland Advisors. Benn started his career as an emerging markets macroeconomist at the World Bank.Benn holds a PhD in economics from UC Berkeley and BA in economics and international relations from Stanford University.Disclaimer: This material is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, or any related financial instruments. Please contact a licensed professional before making any investment or trading decisions

Properties for Sale on the North Side?  We want to buy them. Email: StraightUpChicagoInvestor@gmail.com Have a vacancy? We can place your next tenant and give you back 30-40 hours of your time. Learn more: GCRealtyInc.com/tenant-placement Has Property Mgmt become an opportunity cost for you? Let us lower your risk and give you your time back to grow. Learn more: GCRealtyinc.com ============= Kevin Werner, CEO of Renovo Financial, has over 20 years of experience building and scaling successful lending companies! Kevin discusses his start in the lending business including his first company that did not survive the Great Financial Crisis. He shares lessons learned from lending through the Housing Crash and how those insights coupled with great relationships lead to the inception of Renovo Financial. Kevin gives the philosophy that has led to Renovo's explosive growth the last decade including thriving through the uncertainty of COVID. Throughout the show, Kevin drops powerful outlooks on business, customer service, and relationships that you'll want to remember and implement! If you enjoy today's episode, please leave us a review and share with someone who may also find value in this content! ============= Connect with Mark and Tom: StraightUpChicagoInvestor.com Email the Show: StraightUpChicagoInvestor@gmail.com Guest: Kevin Werner, Renovo Financial Link: Kevin's LinkedIn Link: All-In Podcast Link: King of Capital (Book Recommendation) Guest Questions 01:51 Housing Provider Tip - Understand the power of being decisive and taking action! 03:18 Intro to our guest, Kevin Werner! 10:44 Getting a loan business off the ground in the 90s. 15:28 Lending through the Housing Crash! 34:21 The business model of lending business. 45:27 Renovo's explosive growth through COVID into 2025! 60:18 Kevin's parenting philosophy and outlook on Chicago! 63:24 What is your competitive advantage? 64:20 One piece of advice for new investors. 64:53 What do you do for fun? 66:04 Good book, podcast, or self development activity that you would recommend?  66:53 Local Network Recommendation?  68:38 How can the listeners learn more about you and provide value to you? ----------------- Production House: Flint Stone Media Copyright of Straight Up Chicago Investor 2025.

Danny Moses interviews Larry McDonald, a former distressed credit trader at Lehman Brothers during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and author of 'A Colossal Failure of Common Sense' and 'How to Listen When Markets Speak.' Larry discusses his career, which includes transitioning from retail to institutional finance and experiencing firsthand the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The conversation covers several key topics, including the risks posed by government debt and high yields, the implications of expensive tech stocks fueled by passive flows, and the growth and potential risks of private credit. Larry also identifies investment opportunities in energy, commodities, and hard assets. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors poised to benefit from a multipolar, inflationary world, like nuclear energy, natural gas, and metals such as copper and platinum. The episode concludes with insights into the potential impacts of government policies and the need for careful market analysis. --ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Housing affordability and lagging productivity in Canada. The economic rise of China and the global south. The surge of the tech economy in the U.S. According to our panel, the beginnings of all of these can be traced back to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. There's an argument to be made that the world is still living in the shadow of that bank-led global financial meltdown. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Danny Moses talks with Dennis DeBusschere, founder and chief market strategist of 22V Research. They discuss various economic indicators, the state of large cap tech stocks, and the risks posed by tariffs and rising 10-year bond yields. Dennis shares insights on the Fed's stance, US debt, private credit, energy sector, and gold. The conversation covers the complex dynamics between fiscal stimulus, the Fed's monetary policy, and their implications for market performance. Specific attention is given to the influence of long-term yields on different market segments, particularly small caps and economically sensitive sectors. Dennis also outlines how his 'fire and ice regime' adapts to these economic conditions. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The first episode of The Agenda aired in September of 2006. Two years later we were in the midst of the Great Financial Crisis. From there, the Occupy movement put the concept of the 1% and the issue of inequality front-and-centre. In the nearly two decades we've been having conversations about the economy and politics here on The Agenda, have we become a more or less equal society? Have we become a more or less fair society? And how has the anger and fallout from the financial crisis fueled the populism and seismic political shifts we are seeing today?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economic uncertainty, heightened volatility and on-again, off-again trade policies are challenging for investors. But similar to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, fiduciary advisors can use this opportunity to assert their value and give clients confidence that their broader financial plans aren't as negatively impacted as they may think, given the daily doom-and-gloom market headlines. … Read More Read More

Our analysts Betsy Graseck, Manan Gosalia and Ryan Kenny discuss the major discussions they expect to highlight Morgan Stanley's upcoming U.S. Financials conference.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Bank Analyst and Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research. Today we take a look at the key debates in the U.S. financials industry. It's Monday, June 9th at 10:30am in New York.Tomorrow Morgan Stanley kicks off its annual U.S. Financials Conference right here in New York City. We wanted to give you a glimpse into some of the most significant themes that we expect will be addressed at the conference. And so, I'm here with two of my colleagues, Manan Gosalia, U.S. Midcap Banks Analyst, and Ryan Kenny, U.S. Midcaps Advisor Analyst.Investors are grappling with navigating economic uncertainty from new tariff policies, inflation concerns, and immigration challenges – all of which impacts financial growth and credit quality. On the positive side, they are also looking closely at regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, which could ease banking rules for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis.Let's hear what our experts are expecting. Manan, ahead of the conference, what key themes do you expect mid-cap banks will highlight?Manan Gosalia: So, there are three key themes that we've been focused on for the mid-cap banks: loan growth, net interest margins, and capital. So, first on loan growth. Loan growth for the regional banks has been fairly tepid at about 2 to 3 percent year-on-year, and the tone from bank management teams has been fairly mixed in the April earning season that followed the tariff announcements on April 2nd. Some banks were starting to see the uncertainty weigh on corporate decision making and borrowing activity, while others were only seeing a slow down in some parts of their portfolio, with a pickup in other parts. Now that we've had two months to digest the announcements and several more positive developments on tariff negotiations, we expect that the tone from bank management teams will be more positive. Now, we don't expect them to say growth is accelerating, but we do expect that they will say loan growth is holding up with strong pipelines. On the second topic, net interest margins, we expect to hear that there is still room for margin expansion as we go through this year. And that's coming in two places, particularly as bank term deposits continue to reprice lower. And then the back book of fixed rate loans and securities, essentially assets that were put on the books four to five years ago when rates were a lot lower, are now rolling over at today's higher rates. Betsy Graseck: So, is the long end of the curve going up a good thing?Manan Gosalia: Yes, for net interest margins. But on the flip side, the tenure going up is slightly negative for bank capital. So that brings me to my third theme. The regional banks are overall in a much better place on capital than they were two years ago. Balance sheets have improved. Capital levels remain solid across the sector. But the recent increase in the long end of the curve is marginally negative for capital, given that there will be a higher negative mark on securities that banks hold. But we believe that higher capital levels that regional banks have accumulated over the past couple of years will help cushion some of these negative marks, and we don't expect the recent shift in the tenure will have a meaningful impact on bank capital plans.Betsy Graseck: So, the increase in the 10-year pulls down capital a little bit, but not enough to trip any regulatory minimums?Manan Gosalia: Correct.Betsy Graseck: So, all in the 10-year yield going up is a good thing?Manan Gosalia: It's slightly negative, but I would expect it does not impact bank growth plans. Betsy Graseck: Okay. All in, what's the message from mid-cap banks?Manan Gosalia: All in, I would expect the tone to be a little more positive than the banks had at April earnings.Betsy Graseck: Excellent. Thanks so much, Manan. Ryan, what about you? What are you expecting mid-cap advisors will say?Ryan Kenny: So, I think we'll hear a lot about the trends in M&A. And when we last heard from investment bank management teams during April earnings, the messaging was more cautious. We heard about M&A deals being paused as companies processed the Liberation Day tariffs, and a small number of deals being pulled. Tomorrow at our conference, expect to hear a measured but slightly improved tone. Look, there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, but what's changed since April is the fact that the U.S. administration is flexing in response to markets. So that should help shore up more confidence needed to do deals, and there's tremendous pent-up demand for corporate activity. Over the last three years – so 2022 to 2024 – M&A volumes relative to nominal GDP have been running 30 to 40 percent below three-decade averages. Equity capital markets volumes 50 to 60 percent below average. There is tremendous need for private equity firms to exit their portfolio investments and deploy $4 trillion of dry powder that has accumulated and also structural themes for corporates – like the need for AI capabilities, energy and biotech consolidation and reshoring – that should fuel mergers as a cycle gets going.So, I think for this group, the message will likely be: April and May – more challenged from a deal flow perspective; but back up of the year, you should start to expect some improvement.Betsy Graseck: So slightly improved tone…Ryan Kenny: Slightly improved. And one of the other really interesting themes that the investment banks will talk about is the substantial growth of private capital advisory.So, this is advising private equity funds and owners on capital raising, liquidation, including secondary transactions and continuation funds. And what will be interesting is how the clients set here is growing. We've seen this quarter, major universities, some local governments that increasingly need liquidity and they're hiring investment banks to advise on selling private equity fund interests.It's really going to be a great discussion because private capital advisory is a major growth area for the boutique investment banks that I cover.Betsy Graseck: How big of a sleeve do you think this could become – as big as M&A outright?Ryan Kenny: Probably not as big as M&A outright, but significant. And it helps give the investment banks' relationships with financial sponsors who are active on the M&A front. So, it can be a share gain story.So, Betsy, what about you? You cover the large cap banks. What do you expect to hear?Betsy Graseck: Well, before I answer that, I do want to just put a pin on it.So, you're saying that for your coverage Ryan, we have some green shoots coming through...Ryan Kenny: Yeah, green shoots and more positive than in April.Betsy Graseck: And Manan on your side? Same?Manan Gosalia: A little bit more of a positive than April earnings, but more of the same as we heard at the start of the year.Betsy Graseck: Okay. Going back to the future then, I suppose we could say. Excellent. Well on large cap banks, I do expect large cap banks will be reflecting some of the same themes that you both just discussed. In particular, you know, we'll talk about IPOs. IPOs are holding up. We look at IPOs where we had 26 IPOs in the past week alone.That's up from 22 on average year-to-date in 2025. And I do think that the large cap banks will highlight that capital market activity is building and can accelerate from here, as long as equity volatility remains contained. By which we mean VIX is at 20 or below. And with capital market activity should come increased lending activity. It's very exciting. What's going on here is that when you do an M&A, you have to finance it, and that financing comes from either the bond market or banks or private credit. M&A financing is a key driver of CNI loan growth. A lot of people don't know that. And CNI loan growth, we do think will be moving from current levels of about 2 percent year-on-year, as per the most recent Fed H.8 data to 5 percent as M&A comes through over the next year plus. And then the other major driver of CNI loans is loans to non-depository financial institutions, which is also known as NDFI Loans. NDFI loans have been getting a lot of press recently. We see this as much ado about reclassification. That said, investors are asking what is the risk of this book of business? Our view is that it's similar to overall CNI loan risk, and we will dig into that outlook with managements at the conference. It'll be exciting. Additionally, we will touch on regulation and how easing of regulation could change strategies for capital utilization and capital deployment. So, you want to have an ear out for that. Well, Manan, Ryan, it's been great speaking with you today.Manan Gosalia: Should be an exciting conference.Ryan Kenny: Thanks for having us on.Betsy Graseck: And thanks for listening everyone. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Jon Hartley and Randal Quarles discuss Randy's career as a lawyer and in policy (including his time as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Regulation) and topics such as the global financial crisis, Glass-Steagall, banking regulation, lender of last resort, Basel III, the Dodd-Frank Act, capital requirements, the potential relaxation of Treasuries in the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), deposit insurance after the Silicon Valley Bank regional banking crisis, and stablecoin regulation. Recorded on May 29, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Randal Quarles is the Chairman and co-founder of The Cynosure Group.  Before founding Cynosure, Mr. Quarles was a long-time partner of the Carlyle Group, where he began the firm's program of investments in the financial services industry during the 2008 financial crisis. From October 2017 through October 2021, Mr. Quarles was Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, serving as the system's first Vice Chairman for Supervision, charged specifically with ensuring stability of the financial sector.  He also served as the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (“FSB”) from December 2018 until December 2021; a global body established after the Great Financial Crisis to coordinate international efforts to enhance financial stability. In both positions, he played a key role in crafting the US and international response to the economic and financial dislocations of COVID-19, successfully preventing widespread global disruption of the financial system.  As FSB Chairman, he was a regular delegate to the finance ministers' meetings of the G-7 and G20 Groups of nations and to the Summit meetings of the G20.  As Fed Vice Chair, he was a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the body that sets monetary policy for the United States. Earlier in his career, Mr. Quarles was Under Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, where he led the Department's activities in financial sector and capital markets policy, including coordination of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. Before serving as Under Secretary, Mr. Quarles was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, where he had a key role in responding to several international crises.  Mr. Quarles was also the U.S. Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund, a member of the Air Transportation Stabilization Board, and a board representative for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. In earlier public service, he was an integral member of the Treasury team in the George H. W. Bush Administration that developed the governmental response to the savings and loan crisis. Jon Hartley is currently a Policy Fellow at the Hoover Institution, an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, a Research Fellow at the UT-Austin Civitas Institute, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center. Jon is also the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast, an official podcast of the Hoover Institution, a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and the chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a Fixed Income Portfolio Construction and Risk Management Associate and as a Quantitative Investment Strategies Client Portfolio Management Senior Analyst and in various policy/governmental roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star, among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper.  ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics.

Danny Moses welcomes Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group. They discuss the accuracy of Peter's market predictions from February, touching on subjects like the 'Mag 7' tech stocks, global investment trends, and market valuations. The conversation expands to current financial dynamics involving the Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, and global bond markets. They also delve into sector-specific insights, including energy, housing, and retail. Danny highlights the significance of international investment flows and their impact on the US market. The episode wraps up with an analysis of the Belmont Stakes, discussing horse racing strategies and predictions. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, joins the On the Tape podcast to discuss his views on the current market landscape. The conversation touches on Kantrowitz's rankings, his new podcast 'What's Next for Markets,' and his thoughts on market myopia and reactivity. He delves deep into the primary factors driving market movements, focusing on inflation, interest rates, tariffs, and the impact of geopolitical events. Kantrowitz also shares insights from his 'Hope' framework—housing, orders, profits, and employment—and its application in cyclical market analysis. The discussion wraps up with Kantrowitz's perspective on the importance of quality over valuation in stock selection, particularly in the small-cap sector, and the potential economic impacts of AI and other macroeconomic factors. Checkout Michael's Podcast: https://www.pipersandler.com/whatsnextformarkets --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

What are the primary differences between Proptech 1.0, Proptech 2.0, and today's Proptech 3.0? In what way did Brian's consulting work quickly change as financial firms navigated the Great Financial Crisis? What was it like to be at the forefront of the technology revolution within investment management that led to quant investing? Why did Brian get the chance to build a reinsurance business from the ground up and how did this work establish his credentials for raising institutional capital? How did a weekend and weeknight personal research project on shared equity in real estate lead to a role at Unison? Why was it important that from the get go the Jubilee Homes solution work within the existing real estate ecosystem? What is a leasehold product and how does this differ from a traditional mortgage? Why is Jubilee Homes focused on markets where there is a high land share percentage for home purchases? What attributes of the residential ground lease asset class make it particularly interesting for institutional capital? Why was it important for Jubilee Homes to build trust with real estate agents? Does the leasehold product work for real estate asset classes outside of residential real estate?Brian Elbogen - CEO and co-founder of Jubilee Homes, joins Proptech Espresso to answer these questions and discuss how a conversation with a professor on a recruiting trip around the opportunity to study operations researched tipped the scale in favor of attending Princeton over the Univeristy of Penn.

Danny Moses hosts Jack Farley, a podcaster and founder of the Monetary Matters Network. They discuss Jack's experiences growing up during the Global Financial Crisis and his keen interest in the Federal Reserve. Jack shares insights from numerous interviews on short selling and quantitative trading. They explore current market dynamics, with Jack reflecting on private credit and its potential impacts. Jack also recounts lessons from notable guests and explains the role of technical analysis and short interest in investing. The conversation concludes with Jack's thoughts on the democratization of market information and his aspirations for his podcast network. Read More Joseph Wan at fedguy.com Citrini Research (Substack) --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

SUBSCRIBE to 'On The Tape' YouTube: http://youtu.be/KGhR4WGAQ6w Apple: http://apple.co/3YGdXr9 Spotify: http://tinyurl.com/3kaxvtsy Danny Moses welcomes back former partners Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel from Seawolf Capital. The discussion begins with brief backgrounds of the guests and highlights from their careers, including their time at Goldman Sachs and founding Seawolf Capital. The conversation transitions into their perspectives on the current volatile market environment, where they discuss managing personal investments versus others' money, stock picking strategies, and the importance of upgrading portfolios during market downturns. The trio also delves into the impacts of tariffs, the importance of liquidity, and the role of gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. They share their investment strategies in sectors like energy, financial services, and discuss specific stocks such as Sable Offshore and Uranium. The episode concludes with lighter topics including sports betting and their predictions for the PGA Championship and the Preakness. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

You Can Now Trade eToro on the eToro online brokerage platform as the company joined the capital markets through an IPO on the Nasdaq. Co-founder and CEO Yoni Assia on the platform's long journey from its origins in 2007, through the Great Financial Crisis, the pandemic and the dawn of cryptocurrency to its debut as a public company.LINKS:https://www.etoro.com/about/https://www.investopedia.com/etoro-review-6741360 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

FF: Maximizing Income and Reducing Outgo Credit card debt is climbing in the US. To overcome too much debt, you need a plan to provide more value and get bad debt (any that doesn't make you money) paid off. We talk about our experiences in getting out of a difficult financial situation, buying assets, learning from mentors, running a business, and much more! The world is changing quickly. Some of these changes are good, like businesses like AirBNB, Lyft/Uber, and Amazon stepping in to change how things are done. Other changes have produced crashes, like the Nifty 50 stocks, the 2000 Tech crash, and the Great Financial Crisis. What do you need to start doing now to prepare yourself to be in a better financial situation 5 years from now? Tune in to learn lessons to help make your financial life better! Sponsors: American Gold Exchange Our dealer for precious metals & the exclusive dealer of Real Power Family silver rounds. Get your first, or next bullion order from American Gold Exchange like we do. Tell them the Real Power Family sent you! Click on this link to get a FREE Starters Guide. Advanta IRA Our family has our IRA's & HSA at Advanta IRA. Set up a truly Self-Directed Roth or Traditional IRA, HSA, 401k or other accounts with Advanta IRA & you can invest in hard assets like we do. We own Real Estate, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Notes & even private placements in our retirement accounts. With Advanta IRA you can too! They will waive the application fee on new accounts when you mention the Real Power Family. Links: www.RealPowerFamily.com Info@ClearSkyTrainer.com 833-Be-Do-Have (833-233-6428)

Danny Moses welcomes back former partners Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel from Seawolf Capital. The discussion begins with brief backgrounds of the guests and highlights from their careers, including their time at Goldman Sachs and founding Seawolf Capital. The conversation transitions into their perspectives on the current volatile market environment, where they discuss managing personal investments versus others' money, stock picking strategies, and the importance of upgrading portfolios during market downturns. The trio also delves into the impacts of tariffs, the importance of liquidity, and the role of gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. They share their investment strategies in sectors like energy, financial services, and discuss specific stocks such as Sable Offshore and Uranium. The episode concludes with lighter topics including sports betting and their predictions for the PGA Championship and the Preakness. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dr. Edward Altman, creator of the Z-Score bankruptcy prediction model and Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, joins Julia La Roche on episode 257 for an in-depth discussion on where we are in the credit cycle. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ed Altman discusses the current state of the credit cycle. Dr. Altman explains that 2024 saw more Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings than any year since the Great Financial Crisis, with over 7,000 filings. He analyzes why the economy has moved from a "benign" phase to a "stress" phase in his credit cycle framework, highlighting the dichotomy between high-yield bonds and bank loans, the impact of floating-rate debt, and the growth of private credit markets. Dr. Altman also examines distressed exchanges as alternatives to bankruptcy, government debt concerns, and why credit cycles typically precede business cycles as leading economic indicators.Dr. Altman is a renowned professor and researcher for his bankruptcy prediction and credit risk analysis work. Dr. Altman earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been with NYU Stern School of Business since 1967. He is most famous for developing the Z-Score formula in the late 1960s. The Z-Score is a financial model that uses historical data to predict a company's likelihood of bankruptcy. This formula is widely used by investors, financial analysts, and auditors as a tool for predicting corporate defaults and an aid in credit risk management. Dr. Altman has published numerous books and articles on the topics of bankruptcy, corporate distress analysis, corporate financial restructuring, and credit risk. His work has had a significant impact on both academic finance and practical investment analysis. Links: Wiser Funding: https://www.wiserfunding.com/ Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring and Bankruptcy Book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Financial-Distress-Restructuring-Bankruptcy/dp/1119481805/NYU Stern: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman00:00 - Introduction to Dr. Edward Altman 01:17 - The current credit cycle and economy outlook 03:17 - Credit market dichotomy between high yield bonds and bank loans 05:43 - Floating rate vs fixed rate debt performance 09:16 - Credit cycle as a leading indicator for the business cycle 15:21 - Record high Chapter 11 bankruptcies in 2024 19:06 - Understanding distressed exchanges as a default technique 26:58 - The Z-Score: history and evolution 33:49 - Changes in corporate debt markets over the decades 36:37 - Bond rating equivalents for Z-Scores 38:32 - Comparing current conditions to the 2007 credit bubble 45:19 - Private credit market growth and impact 51:38 - Government debt concerns and interest payments 59:59 - Closing thoughts on the credit cycle and market outlook

Danny is joined by Bethany McLean, famed for her work on exposing Enron's accounting malpractices and chronicling its fall in her book, 'The Smartest Guys in the Room.' McLean discusses various topics including the current state of private equity, U.S. healthcare, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, tariffs, and Warren Buffett's enduring legacy. Delving into contemporary issues, she also touches on the role of law firms in response to Trump's demands, the mission conflict within Open AI, and the philosophical underpinnings of the 'dark enlightenment' movement. The conversation highlights the intricate dynamics between capitalism, governance, and societal impacts. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro & Warren Buffet 4:25 - Supply Chain 9:45 - Rule of Law 13:45 - State of Journalism 15:45 - OpenAI 18:30 - Dark Enlightenment 21:45 - Fannie & Freddie 25:45 - Private Equity --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

With the May FOMC meeting in progress, our analysts Matt Hornbach and Michael Gapen offer perspective on U.S. economic projections and whether markets are aligned.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today we're talking about the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting underway, and the path for rates from here.It's Tuesday, May 6th at 10am in New York.Mike, before we talk about your expectations for the FOMC meeting itself, I wanted to get your take on the U.S. economy heading into the meeting. How are you seeing things today? And in particular, how do you think what happened on April 2nd, so-called Liberation Day, affects the outlook?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think right now, Matt, I would say the economy's still on relatively solid footing, and by that I mean the economy had been moderating. Yes, the first quarter GDP print was negative. But that was mainly because firms were frontloading a lot of inventories through imports. So imports were up over 40 percent at an annualized pace in the quarter. A lot of that went into inventories and into business spending. That was just a mechanical drag on activity.And the April employment report, I think, showed the same thing. We're now averaging about 145,000 jobs per month this year. That's down from about 170,000 per month in the second half of last year. So the hiring rate is slowing down, but no signs of a sudden stop. No signs in layoffs picking up. So I'd say the economy is on fairly solid footing, and the labor market is also on fairly solid footing – as we enter the period now when we think tariffs will have a greater effect on the outlook. So you asked, you know, Liberation Day. How does that affect the outlook? Right now we'd say it puts a lot of uncertainty in front of us. on pretty solid footing now. But Matt, looking forward, we have a lot of concerns about where things may go and we expect activity to slow and inflation to rise.Matthew Hornbach: That's great background, Mike, for what I want to ask you about next, which is of course the FOMC meeting this week. We won't get a new set of economic projections from the committee. But if we did, what do you think they would do with them and how would you assess the reaction function one might be able to tease out of those economic projections?Michael Gapen: You're right, we don't get a new set of projections, but New York Fed President John Williams did provide some indication about how he adjusted his forecast, and John tends to be one of the – kind of a median participant.He tends to be centrist in his thinking and his projection. So I do think that that gives us an indication of what the Fed is thinking; and he said he expects GDP growth to slow to somewhat below 1 percent in 2025. He expects inflation to rise to 3.5 to 4 percent this year, and he said the unemployment rates likely to move between 4.5 and 5 percent over the next year. And those phrases are really key. That's the same thing, Matt, as you know, we are expecting for the U.S. economy and I do think the Fed is thinking of it the same way.Matthew Hornbach: So one final question for you, Mike. In terms of this meeting itself, what are you expecting the Fed to deliver this week? And what are the risks you see being around that expectation; you know, that might catch investors off guard?Michael Gapen:I think the Fed's main message this week will be that they're prepared to wait, that they think policy's in a good spot right now. They think inflation will be rising sharply, that the tariff shock is a lot larger than they had anticipated earlier this year. And they will need time to assess whether that inflation impulse is transitory, or whether it creates more persistent inflation. So I think what they will say is we're in a good position to wait and we need clarity on the outlook before we can act.In this case, we think acting means doing nothing. But acting could also mean cutting if the labor market weakens. So I think there'll be worried about inflation today, a weak labor market tomorrow. And so I think risks around this meeting really are tilted in the direction of a more hawkish message than markets are expecting at least vis-a-vis current pricing. I think the market wants to hear the Fed will be ready to support the economy. Of course, we think they will, but I think the Fed's also going to be worried about inflation pressures in the near term. So that, I think, might catch investors off guard.So Matt, what I think might catch investors off guard may be a little misplaced. I'm an economist after all. You're the strategist, you're the expert on the treasury market and how investors may be perceiving events at the moment. So the treasury market had quite the month since April 2nd. For a moment U.S. treasuries didn't act like the safe haven asset many have come to expect. What do you think happened?Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, you're absolutely right. Treasury yields initially fell, but then spent a healthy portion of the last month rising and investors were caught off guard by what they saw happening in the treasury market. I've seen this type of behavior in the treasury market, which I've been watching now for 25 years. I've seen this happen twice before in my career. The first time was during the Great Financial Crisis, and the second time I saw it was in March of 2020. So, this being the third time you know, I don't know if it was the charm or if it was something else, but treasury yields went up quite a bit.I think what investors were witnessing in the treasury market is really a reflection of the degree of uncertainty and the breadth with which that uncertainty, traversed the world. Both the Great Financial Crisis and the initial stage of the pandemic in March of 2020 were events that were global in nature. They were in many ways systemic in nature, and they were events that most investors hadn't contemplated or seen in their lifetimes. And when this happens, I think investors tend to reduce risk in all of its forms until the dust settles. And one of those very important forms of risk in the fixed income markets is duration risk.So, I think investors were paring back duration risk, which helped the U.S. Treasury market perform pretty poorly at one moment over the past month.Michael Gapen: So Matt, one aspect of market pricing that stands out to me is how rates markets are pricing 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. And just after April 2nd, the market had priced in about 100 basis points of cuts.How are you thinking about the market pricing today? Matt, as you know, it differs quite a bit from what we think will happen.Matthew Hornbach: Yeah. This is where, you know, understanding that market prices in the interest rate complex reflect the average outcome of a wide variety of scenarios; really every scenario that is conceivable in the minds of investors. And, of course, as you mentioned, Mike depending on exactly how this year ends up playing out there, there could be a scenario in which the Federal Reserve has to lower rates much more aggressively than perhaps even markets are pricing today.So, the market being an average of a wide variety of outcome will find it really challenging to take out all of the rate cuts that are priced in today. Or said differently, the market will find it challenging to price in your baseline scenario. And ultimately, I think the way in which the market ends up truing up to your projections, Mike, is just with time.I think as we make our way through this year and the economic data come in, in-line with your baseline projections, the market will eventually price out those rate cuts that you see in there today. But that's going to take time. It's going to take investors growing increasingly comfortable that we can avoid a recession at least in perception this year before, you know, on your projections, we have a bit of a slower economy in 2026.Michael Gapen: Well, it definitely does feel like a bimodal world, where investor conviction is low. Matt, where do you have conviction in the rates market today?Matthew Hornbach: So, the way we've been thinking about this environment where we can avoid a recession this year, but maybe 2026 the risks rise a bit more. We think that that's the type of environment where the yield curve in the United States can steepen, and what that means practically is that yields on longer maturity bonds will go up relative to yields on shorter maturity bonds. So, you get this steepening of the yield curve. And that is where we have the highest conviction; in terms of, what happens with the Treasury market this year is we have a steeper yield curve by the time we get to December.Now part of that steepening we think comes because as we approach 2026 where Mike, you have the Fed beginning to lower rates in your baseline, the market will have to increasingly price with more conviction a lower policy rate from the Fed. But then at the same time, you know, we probably will have an environment where treasury supply will have to increase.As a result of the fiscal policies that the government is discussing at the moment. And so you have this environment where yields on longer maturity securities are pressured higher relative to yields on shorter maturity treasuries.So, with that, Mike, we'll wrap our conversation. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: It's been great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

There have only been two U.S. recessions since 2001 – the Great Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession. Both of these were huge – accounting for two of the only three times since the 1940s that the unemployment rate has vaulted to double digits. However, because the recessions of our recent memory have been so dramatic, investors may not appreciate the risks from a softer sort of slowdown.

In this podcast episode we explore the fascinating connection between the economic turmoil of 2008 and the movies that captivated audiences during that time. Discover how films like Up, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Dark Knight provided both escapism and reflection during a period of uncertainty. We'll delve into how the crisis influenced cinematic trends and even touch upon the current state of cinema in 2025. Get ready for an engaging discussion filled with movie clips and insightful commentary!

This episode dives into the nuances, negotiation process, and key strategies to navigate distressed properties with Shlomo Chopp, Managing Partner at Case.The Crexi Podcast explores various aspects of the commercial real estate industry in conversation with top CRE professionals. In each episode, we feature different guests to tap into their wealth of CRE expertise and explore the latest trends and updates from the world of commercial real estate. In this episode of the Crexi Podcast, host Shanti Ryle sits down with Shlomo to explore the intricacies of commercial real estate investment financing. With over 20 years of experience, Shlomo shares his unique journey from PropTech to distressed real estate, discussing the strategic methodologies that have propelled his career. The conversation delves deep into the essentials of debt restructuring, the importance of preparation and relationships, and the nuances of navigating distressed assets in today's market. Gain valuable insights into creative problem-solving, effective negotiation techniques, and market trends that distinguish this market cycle from the Great Financial Crisis. Whether you're a newcomer or an industry leader, this episode offers a wealth of knowledge on achieving success in the nuanced world of CRE.Introduction to The Crexi PodcastMeet Shlomo Chopp: A Distressed Real Estate ExpertShlomo's Career Path and Early InfluencesThe Importance of Relationships in Real EstateNavigating Distressed AssetsCurrent Market Trends and ComparisonsMarket Negativity and Bank FailuresGovernment Intervention and Interest RatesReal Estate Market DynamicsInvestment Perspectives and Market PositivityRestructuring and Distressed AssetsActive Ownership and Market RealitiesBroker Insights and Passive Income MythsLender-Borrower DynamicsCreative Solutions in RestructuringRapid Fire Questions and Industry InsightsFinal Thoughts and Contact Information About Shlomo Chopp:Shlomo Chopp is the Managing Partner of Case, bringing over 20 years of commercial real estate investment and advisory experience. He specializes in crafting solutions for distressed property and debt situations while developing innovative strategies for repositioning assets and asset classes.The son of a computer programmer, Shlomo's foray into commercial real estate began in 2003 when he sold PropTech software to real estate finance brokerages. Since then, he has invested in, structured, or advised on nearly $5 billion in commercial real estate.In 2010, Shlomo founded Case Property Services (CPS) to help borrowers and guarantors navigate the challenges of distressed real estate loans in today's complex and interconnected capital markets. With expertise at the highest levels of structured finance and CMBS, his approach combines strategic analysis, planning, and diligence to create leverage for his clients and foster proactive communication between borrowers and lenders.On the investment side, Shlomo is part of a family office that owns and operates ±70 properties across the US, and multiple asset classes. Focused on value-add opportunities, he leverages his distressed debt expertise to invest across all levels of the capital stack, including bonds, loans, properties, and other derivative interests in commercial real estate.Beyond distressed debt, Shlomo has secured four commercial real estate-related patents in the areas of shopping centers, e-commerce, and fulfillment. His invention, retailOS™, is a platform designed to enhance shopping center value and improve retail operations profitability. He has If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to our newsletter and enjoy the next podcast delivered straight to your inbox. For show notes, past guests, and more CRE content, please check out Crexi's blog. Ready to find your next CRE property? Visit Crexi and immediately browse 500,000+ available commercial properties for sale and lease. Follow Crexi:https://www.crexi.com/​ https://www.crexi.com/instagram​ https://www.crexi.com/facebook​ https://www.crexi.com/twitter​ https://www.crexi.com/linkedin​ https://www.youtube.com/crexi

Danny Moses interviews Dr. Jim Walker from Aletheia Capital. They discuss Dr. Walker's pioneering of independent research firm Asianomics, its evolution, and current focus at Aletheia Capital. The conversation delves into the differences between the Austrian School of Economics and Keynesian economic theories, particularly in how government interventions impact the economy. Dr. Walker shares insights on the Thai baht devaluation of 1997 and its parallels to current economic conditions. The discussion also covers the recent US tariff policies, their impact on global trade, and the potential for a recession in the US. Later in the episode, Dr. Walker touches on geopolitical risks like the potential China-Taiwan conflict and their economic implications. On a lighter note, they talk about Dr. Walker's passion for horse racing and Scottish football. Stick around after the interview for Danny's Kentucky Derby preview! --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Fixing the Fed - President Trump's escalating feud with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has suddenly taken center stage, as the Dow drops major points, the dollar slides and tariffs are set to take effect. What lies ahead for the U.S.? Will Trump's policies usher in a golden age for America, or will the economy turn in a different direction? Attorney Larry Dershem interviews financial expert Todd Sheets https://toddsheetswriter.com/, author of the new book 2008: What Really Happened--Understanding the Great Financial Crisis, who will set the record straight on what needs to be done to fix the Fed. Also, ... The Real Tax Issue is the Federal Budget – Is the federal budget like a runaway train that can't be stopped? How do we reign in the profligate monetary habits of both Democrats and Republicans who continually spend beyond their means? And can DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) help defuse this financial time bomb? Find out answers to these questions and more as we interview Dr. Murray Sabrin of the Mises Institute. https://mises.org/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Danny is joined by Michael Green, Chief Strategist for Simplify Asset Management. The conversation spans various pivotal moments including the 1987 stock market crash, the 'Big Short' trade during the 2008 financial crisis, and his insights as a portfolio manager at firms like Canyon Partners and Soros Fund Management. Michael also discusses his current role at Simplify Asset Management, where he leverages both active and passive investment strategies. The discussion delves into the dynamics of market flows, the implications of passive investing, and the critical role of market structure in understanding economic shifts. Michael's perspectives on gold, Bitcoin, and the future impacts of artificial intelligence on the economy round out this comprehensive dialogue. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Mike Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that we're living through "a period of genuine uncertainty, and a period in which forecasts that would have been made even three or four months ago no longer seem to have any real validity." He says that the current set up for a trade/tariff war is setting the economy up for a repeat of real troubles, and made comparisons as varied as the Great Depression, the Covoid downturn, the Great Financial Crisis and others, and while he is optimistic that those dire scenarios can still be avoided, he also says that investors can't rule them out. Rahul Sen Sharma, president and co-chief executive officer at Indxx discusses how global markets — and indexes representing various regions and industries around the world — are performing amid the current market uncertainty. Plus, Raymond Bridges of the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF brings his "aggressively cautious" approach — which melds macroeconomic big-picture views with technical analysis and volatility factors — to the Market Call.

Season 18, Episode 4: Over the years, we've had the company of many people who have an involvement in cricket without it being their day job. But none have had as many letters after their name to reflect their massive careers. Mervyn King's life in economics has been just that, teaching at some of the finest universities in the world before moving into policy, where he went on to become the long-standing governor of the Bank of England. That term included the period of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, where he became one of the world's most important figures in finding a way out of that shock. Now well retired from these posts, he's been able to give much of himself to the game he's loved since growing up in the 1950s, serving this year as the president of MCC. In the Lord's pavilion, he spoke with Adam about that role approaching a complex period of transition in the international game before stretching out to discuss his huge career. Tickets for the 18th of August - get them quick and bring your mates: uk.emma-live.com/WormsleyFinal2025 Support the show with a Nerd Pledge at patreon.com/thefinalword Get your big NordVPN discount: nordvpn.com/tfw Sort out expat finances with Odin Mortgage & Tax: odinmortgage.com/partner/the-final-word Maurice Blackburn Lawyers - fighting for the rights of workers since 1919: mauriceblackburn.com.au Get 10% off Glenn Maxwell's sunnies: t20vision.com/FINALWORD Find previous episodes at finalwordcricket.com Title track by Urthboy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of "On the Tape," Danny Moses hosts veteran financial journalist Herb Greenberg, who shares his journey from aspiring disc jockey to influential Wall Street reporter. Greenberg discusses how he developed his reputation for investigative business journalism, focusing on uncovering risks and red flags in public companies, often before others noticed them. The conversation explores the evolution of financial media, the challenges and opportunities in today's democratized information landscape, and the increased difficulty of standing out amid a flood of voices. Greenberg also details his approach to identifying problematic companies, emphasizing the importance of independent research, skepticism, and understanding market dynamics, while offering examples of both short and long investment ideas. The episode concludes with Greenberg reflecting on the current state of financial journalism, his ongoing work to help investors avoid risky stocks, and his move to a new publishing platform to better reach his audience. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Welcome to Kitchen Table Finance! Join hosts Nick and Dave as they dig into one of the most important aspects of financial planning for retirees: when and how to adjust your retirement income. Whether you're navigating market volatility, planning for worst-case scenarios, or wondering if you can spend more than you thought, this episode is packed with actionable insights for retirees and those planning their next chapter. https://youtu.be/f8NIi_CfYw8 What You'll Learn in This Episode: Why planning ahead is key Learn how defining your income rules early on helps reduce emotional decision-making later. The two sides of retirement spending Understand the differences between necessary expenses (like bills) and discretionary spending (like travel), and how these categories play into market ups and downs. Adapting to market changes Discover techniques for adjusting your spending in bear markets to keep your long-term plan on track, including tips on finding a sustainable withdrawal rate. Opportunities for increased spending Why many retirees may be underspending and how to recognize when it's safe to increase your discretionary budget. Using history as a guide Dive into historical scenarios like the Great Financial Crisis and stagflation to see what they teach us about retirement income adjustments. Tools to manage retirement income From Monte Carlo simulations to strategies for creating fixed income sources, Nick and Dave break it down step-by-step. Resources Mentioned: Monte Carlo Simulations for retirement income planning Tools for determining sustainable withdrawal rates SRB Advisors YouTube Channel – Keep an eye out for a new video demonstrating how to visualize market scenarios using advanced software! Why This Episode Matters Market downturns happen, but you don't need to panic. This episode will give you the confidence and tools to stick to your financial principles, make informed adjustments, and sustain your retirement income for the long run. Contact Shotwell Rutter Baer Got questions or want help with your retirement income plan? Visit our website at srbadvisors.com Email us at info@srbadvisors.com Thank you for tuning in! Hit subscribe so you never miss an episode, and join us next time for more insights at the intersection of finances and retirement at Kitchen Table Finance!

Steve Eisman, who was profiled in the terrific book and movie, "The Big Short", explains why he's not shorting any parts of the market right now, but what he would bet against under certain conditions. He explains what's different about this recent volatility and the Great Financial Crisis and the crash of 1987, and how the tariff war might play out as negotiations continue. Plus, his thoughts on Steve Carell's portrayal of him in the movie and how that has changed his life. Links: https://www.audacy.com/podcast/the-eisman-playbook-048f2 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020115/big-short-explained.asp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Danny Moses hosts renowned short seller Jim Chanos of Chanos & Company. Chanos discusses his extensive career in short selling since 1985, offering insights into current market debacles, the elevated risks in recent valuations, and specific cases of fraud he has encountered. He examines the historical context of financial fraud and the systemic issues facing modern markets, such as inadequate regulatory actions by the SEC under the Trump administration. Chanos also touches on his notable short positions, including Enron, and his views on current stocks like IBM and data centers. Additionally, he highlights the importance of rigorous forensic accounting and investigative journalism in uncovering fraud. After the break, Danny is joined by former professional golfer and broadcaster Ned Michaels to preview the 2025 Masters. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist explains why the new tariffs added momentum to a correction that was already underway, and what could ease the fallout in equity markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing equity market reactions to the tariffs and what to expect from here. It's Tuesday, April 8th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it. From our perspective, last week's Liberation Day was more like the cherry on top for a market that had been dealing with multiple headwinds to growth all year, rather than the beginning. While the magnitude of the tariffs turned out to be worse than our public policy team's base line expectations, the price reaction appears capitulatory to us given that many stocks were already down 30 to 40 percent before the announcement on Wednesday. As discussed in last week's podcast, our 5500 first half support level on the S&P 500 quickly gave way given this worse than expected outcome for tariffs. The price action since then has forced us to consider new technical support levels which could be as low as the 200-week moving average. And that would be 4700 on the S&P 500. I think it's worth highlighting that cyclical stocks started underperforming in April of last year and are now down more than 40 percent relative to defensive stocks. In other words, markets have been telling us for almost a year that growth was going to slow, and since January, it's been telling us it's going to slow significantly. In fact, cyclicals have underperformed defensives to a degree only seen during a recession, not prior to them. This fits very nicely with our long-standing view that most of the private economy has been much weaker than the headline numbers suggest – thanks to unprecedented fiscal spending, AI capex and wealthy consumers spending their gains from asset prices. With the exceptional fourth quarter surge in U.S. fiscal spending likely to decline even without DOGE's efforts, global growth impulses will suffer too. Hence, foreign stocks are unlikely to provide much of a safe haven if the U.S. goes on a diet or detox from fiscal spending. Markets began to contemplate such an outcome with last week's announcements. Therefore, I remain of the view we discussed two weeks ago that U.S. equities should trade better than foreign ones going forward. That is especially the case with China, Europe and Japan all which run big current account surpluses and are more vulnerable to weaker trade.Meanwhile, the headline numbers on employment and GDP have been flattered by government related jobs and the hiring of immigrants at below market wages. This is one reason the Fed has kept rates higher than many businesses and consumers need and why we remain in an economy of haves and have-nots. Our long standing thesis is that the government has been crowding out much of the economy since COVID, and arguably since the Great Financial Crisis. It's also why large cap quality has been such a consistent outperformer since the end of 2021 and why we have continued to have high conviction and our recommendation are overweight these factors despite short periods of outperformance by low quality cyclicals or small caps – like last fall when the Fed was cutting rates and we pivoted briefly to a more pro-cyclical recommendation. Bottom line, equity markets are discounting machines and they trade six months in advance of the headlines. With most stocks topping in December of last year and cyclicals' relative performance peaking almost a year ago, this correction is well advanced, and this is not the time to be selling. However, it's fair to say that the tariff announcements last week have taken us to an area with greater tail risk that includes a recession or financial contagion that must be taken into consideration when thinking about levels and adding risk.I see three specific scenarios that could put in a durable floor more quickly:1. President Trump delays the effective date for the implementation of the additional tariffs beyond the initial 10 percent that went into effect this weekend2. The Fed offers support for markets, either explicitly or verbally3. A number of nations come to the table and negotiate on favorable terms to the United States.In short, get ready for another bumpy week and remember markets are looking much further ahead than today's headline. I remain optimistic that the second half will be better than the first as these growth negative policies morph into growth positive ones via de-regulation, a better fiscal trajectory, lower interest rates and taxes and maybe even higher wages for the American consumer.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

WATCH on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Qf6bQayOOFc Danny Moses is joined by Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel for a detailed discussion with Carter Braxton Worth, the founder of Worth Charting. The team delves into an analysis of various market themes and sectors including housing, financials, and energy. They explore the potential impact of 'Liberation Day' on market performance, and the conversation covers Carter's approach to stock market analysis. The team also evaluates individual stock trends and market sentiment, closing with thoughts on specific stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, Alibaba, and various financial and gaming stocks. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 4:05 - SPX 11:15 - Semis 13:25 - TSLA 15:15 - China 19:00 - Gold 26:30 - Bitcoin 29:15 - Yields & Housing 37:00 - Financials 42:35 - Energy 45:15 - Consumer 47:15 - Gaming 49:10 - Lightning Round -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Danny Moses is joined by Ivy Zelman, Founder and Executive VP of Zelman Associates, to discuss her career and insights into the housing market. Ivy shares her journey from a financial analyst at Solomon Brothers in the 1990s to becoming a renowned figure in the housing sector. They delve into her famous predictions on the housing market downturn, the impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, and her strategies for maintaining accurate market forecasts. The conversation also explores current market challenges such as affordability, immigration, tariffs, and declining home sales, along with her perspectives on builders, mortgage rates, and industry consolidation. Ivy also shares details about her memoir 'Gimme Shelter' and her ongoing work at Zelman Associates. On The Tape on X: https://x.com/OnTheTapePod Danny Moses on X: https://x.com/dmoses34 Ivy Zelman's Stock Disclosures: AMWD, BLD, BLDR, CSL, FBHS, IBP, MBC, RMAX, SWK, BZH, CCS, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, PMH, TOL & TMHC Stock Ownership: Analyst: No Analyst's Family: No Analyst's Firm: No Investment Banking Client: No Other Conflicts: Yes – Zelman has received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services.   DFH Stock Ownership: Analyst: No Analyst's Family: No Analyst's Firm: No Investment Banking Client: Yes Other Conflicts: Yes – Zelman has received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Danny Moses hosts Luke Gromen, founder and president of Forest For The Trees, on the On the Tape Podcast. The discussion revolves around significant market shifts since 2023, including fiscal spending and dominance, inflation, and global financial trends. Luke delves into how post-2020 fiscal policies, particularly in the U.S., have led to inflationary pressures and evolving debt dynamics. He explains the impact of Federal Reserve policies and the role of fiscal dominance in shaping market outcomes. Luke also discusses the shifting roles of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets, amidst rising debt and geopolitical tensions. They explore the implications of a potential move towards gold as a neutral reserve asset and how it might affect the global financial system. Luke emphasizes the need for strategic flexibility and a balanced approach to investing. Timecodes 0:00 - Staying Nimble 8:00 - Grading Trump 17:00 - Fed Meeting 21:30 - Gold 41:00 - Bitcoin Checkout Luke's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@LukeGromenFFTTLLC -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, says that stock market swings have had increasing impact on economic growth and the rate of inflation in recent years — "Price is a fundamental," he says — and that means the current downturn in the stock market could deliver a recession. At the same time, if the market moves from current correction-levels to bear-market levels, he expects inflation to then ease up and to help drive a potential recovery. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest investor sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which just hit its third straight week with bearish sentiment above 57 percent and bullish sentiment below 20 percent, a three-week stretch in both numbers that has never been seen since the survey started in 1987. While sentiment levels didn't hit these levels during events like the Dot-com Crash and the Great Financial Crisis, Rotblut noted that when sentiment reaches bearish extremes, the market typically has rebounded in six months, which bodes well for a recovery before year's end. In the NAVigator segment, Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi, discusses the Invesco Closed-End Fund Income Composite ETF — which she considers the "Standard & Poor's 500 for closed-end funds" — as it celebrates its 15th anniversary and crosses $800 million in assets.

Mid-Week Market Insights: CPI Report & Federal Reserve Review - Feb 12 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on February 12th, host Brian Szytel covers the day's market activities influenced by the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The Dow dropped 225 points, the S&P was down by a quarter of a percent, while the Nasdaq saw a minor gain. The CPI numbers showed a monthly increase of 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3%, marking a yearly CPI of 3%. The core CPI excluding food and energy also surpassed expectations. Energy and food prices along with the shelter component significantly impacted the CPI. Szytel discusses the Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to manage inflation, noting the bond market's reaction and Fed Chairman Powell's testimony. The role of the Fed, particularly its expanded balance sheet since the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19, is critiqued. Szytel concludes with a forward-looking perspective and invites viewers to tune in the next day for more updates. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:32 Inflation Report Breakdown 01:15 Impact on Energy and Food Prices 01:26 Shelter Component Analysis 02:05 Market Reactions and Predictions 03:21 Federal Reserve's Role and Actions 04:51 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In the decade that followed the Great Financial Crisis, inflation rates remained low and steady, and in some cases even threatened to turn negative, as economies around the world struggled to recover.This era came to an abrupt end in recent years following the double economic shocks of the COVID pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Many central banks and senior policymakers were caught on the back foot as inflation rates soared to levels not seen for nearly half a century in some countries.Although rates have since come down from those highs, they're still proving tricky to completely get under control, causing concern among some observers.This week on The Inquiry, we explore what inflation is and where it comes from, what's been happening in recent years, and what the outlook might be.Presenter: Tanya Beckett Producer: Ben Cooper Researcher: Katie Morgan Technical producer: Richard Hannaford Production Co-ordinator: Liam Morrey Editor: Tara McDermottContributors: Stephen D. King, author and Senior Economic Advisor at HSBC Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Advisor at the Centre for Economics and Business Research Marieke Blom, Chief Economist and Global Head of Research at ING Manoj Pradham, author and Chief Economist at Talking Heads Macroeconomics