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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist dive into the recent controversy surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, exploring potential political pressures, the Fed's massive headquarters renovation project, and the broader implications for monetary policy and the economy if there were to be a change in Fed leadership.Key TakeawaysJerome Powell Under Pressure: Discussion about the Trump administration's criticism of the Fed Chair.Fed HQ Controversy: Debate around whether the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation represents fiscal irresponsibility or necessary infrastructure investment.Political Tensions: Examination of how ongoing criticisms may impact Powell's role and future Fed independence.Market Implications: Insight into how potential Fed leadership changes or political tensions could influence market behavior and economic policy.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #FedControversy #EconomicPolicy #TrumpAdministration #InterestRates #MarketInsights #FinancialPodcast #EconomicOutlook #MonetaryPolicy #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese
As yet another new wave of tariff threats come out of the White House, investors have yet to bail out of the U.S. stock market like they did in April. Is their bet on American Exceptionalism about to unwind, or is this new bull market unfazed by the upending of the global economy? Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist for Ritholtz Wealth joins The Express for her take on our unbridled enthusiasm, and lessons for long-term investors. Plus, new 50% tariffs on Copper set to go into effect August 1st will be felt across nearly every major industrial and electronic category. If those don't cause an inflationary charge, nothing will. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
As yet another new wave of tariff threats come out of the White House, investors have yet to bail out of the U.S. stock market like they did in April. Is their bet on American Exceptionalism about to unwind, or is this new bull market unfazed by the upending of the global economy? Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist for Ritholtz Wealth joins The Express for her take on our unbridled enthusiasm, and lessons for long-term investors. Plus, new 50% tariffs on Copper set to go into effect August 1st will be felt across nearly every major industrial and electronic category. If those don't cause an inflationary charge, nothing will. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, provide a midyear market review and outlook for 2025. Reflecting on major surprises in the first half of the year, including unexpected tariff announcements and subsequent reversals, they analyze market performance in the first half of the year against historical trends. The discussion highlights market resilience, key economic indicators, historical market trends, and strategic insights into navigating the second half of 2025 effectively.Key TakeawaysUnexpected Tariff Volatility The Liberation Day announcement by President Trump of extremely high tariffs surprised markets significantly. Equally surprising was how rapidly these tariffs were paused, causing abrupt swings in market sentiment.Investor Sentiment Shifts Many investors who were initially bearish following the tariff announcements underestimated the market's capacity to rebound strongly, emphasizing the importance of managing emotional biases and market timing.Market Resilience and Momentum Despite early setbacks, the markets showed resilience, demonstrating strong recovery patterns consistent with historical trends.Bull Still Charging The average bull market lasts about five years, but the current on we're in hasn't lasted even three yet—something to keep in mind next time the market experiences a setback.Fed Stays on Pause Market volatility kept the Fed on the sidelines in the first half of 2025, but we may see rate cuts by the fall if the markets stay on track.A Big Beautiful Boost Thought the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill will likely add to the deficit in the coming years, it could also provide a boon to the markets in the back half of the year.Strategic Insights for Second Half 2025 Historical market trends indicate a potentially strong performance for the latter half of 2025. Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies and diversification, and remain cautious of headline-driven market reactions.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #MidyearOutlook2025 #MarketVolatility #Tariffs #InvestorSentiment #EconomicTrends #MarketForecast #HistoricalPatterns #InvestmentStrategy #StockMarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #MarketRecovery
Isaac Lim, Chief Market Strategist, Moomoo Singapore discusses how the second quarter of 2025 was dominated by the “3 Ts” – Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars. He looks at how the third quarter could see the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade take off again. The discussion also zooms in on the safe haven flows supporting the Straits Times Index to new highs. Produced/Presented: Ryan Huang See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this week's episode of the Facts Vs Feelings podcast, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Barry Gilbert, VP Asset Allocation Strategist at Carson Group, for an insightful conversation on effective portfolio management strategies. Barry shares valuable perspectives on the importance of teamwork, constructive debate, and making decisive investment decisions based on clear, actionable insights. Ryan and Sonu also discuss the historical strength of the July market, providing investors with context and strategic guidance for navigating the second half of the year.Key TakeawaysJuly Stock Market Trends and Analysis July has historically been strong, with the S&P 500 rising 10 consecutive years in that month, and it's notably the strongest month during post-election years.Impact of Positive May and June Performance Historically, positive returns in both May and June forecast strong market performance for the rest of the year—typically gaining around 9-10% in the final six months.Effective Portfolio Management Insights Barry Gilbert stresses the importance of constructive debate, critical thinking, and conviction-driven investment decisions in successful asset allocation strategies.Carson Group's Investment Philosophy Barry highlights Carson's culture of managing real money through rigorous debate and collaborative decision-making.Investor Guidance and Market Volatility Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective and managing emotional reactions during short-term market fluctuations.Connect with Barry:• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert• X: @gilbert3142Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #PortfolioManagement #InvestmentStrategies #JulyMarketRally #StockMarketTrends #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #MarketVolatility #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese
Why do governments lie about how we will be bankrupted by pension and health costs in 30 years? How can we persuade young people to start saving now to avert this catastrophe? And why is saving cash not enough? Robert and Steph speak to Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management about her new and terrifying research into Britain's savings crisis. We appreciate your feedback on The Rest Is Money to help make the podcast and our partnerships better: https://opinion-v2.askattest.com/app/41f5060f-0f52-45bc-bf86-bf3c9793618e?language=ENG Sign up to our newsletter to get more stories from the world of business and finance. Email: restismoney@gmail.com X: @TheRestIsMoney Instagram: @TheRestIsMoney TikTok: @RestIsMoney https://goalhanger.com Find out more about Premium Bonds at https://NSandI.com Visit: https://monzo.com/therestismoney/ Assistant Producers: India Dunkley, Alice Horrell, Hannah Grieve Producer: Ross Buchanan Head of Content: Tom Whiter Exec Producers: Tony Pastor + Jack Davenport Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Pete Najarian, Co-Founder of Market Rebellion and optionMONSTER Ken Polcari, Managing Partner at Kace Capital Advisors; Chief Market Strategist at SlateStone Wealth Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump and debate the Fed's current policy paralysis amid uncertainty about inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. Key Takeaways Middle East Tensions and Market Response: The U.S. recently attacked suspected nuclear sites in Iran, and despite immediate fears, the S&P 500 rallied over 1%, and oil prices sharply reversed after an initial spike—down nearly 14% in one day, one of the largest reversals in history.Geopolitical Patterns and Historical Context: The hosts point out historical examples, such as World War I and the Iraq War, where war-driven fiscal spending and deficit growth actually boosted stock markets significantly. Economic and Fiscal Implications of Conflict: Wars often lead to increased defense and deficit spending, which, despite negative human impacts, can boost corporate profits and stock markets, as seen historically (e.g., Iraq War 2003).President Trump's Criticism of Jerome Powell and Fed Policy: President Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, calling Powell a "numbskull" and suggesting lower rates would save trillions for the U.S.Fed's Policy Paralysis Amid Uncertainty: The Fed faces conflicting economic signals: higher projected inflation (due partly to tariffs), rising unemployment, and slowing growth, resulting in policy paralysis. Sonu criticized Powell's comments claiming labor market strength, pointing to rising unemployment claims and slowing payrolls as clear signs of labor market weakness.Odds of Fed Rate Cuts Increasing: Market-implied probabilities show a significant rise in expectations for a rate cut by September 2025, largely driven by recent sharp declines in oil prices.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #MiddleEastTensions #StockMarketReaction #IranConflict #FiscalSpending #JeromePowell #FedPolicy #TrumpVsPowell #InterestRates #EconomicUncertainty #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese
In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer and host David Hagee is joined by Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management, Brent Schowe, Director of Investment Research, and KC Mathews, Chief Market Strategist, to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy and the outlook for the remainder of 2025, including: Will we or won't we go into a recession in 2025? The impact of interest rates, policy, and the job market on economic growth How tariffs may impact inflation going forward How the decline in the U.S. dollar has impacted markets Market volatility and opportunities in fixed income Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts
In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by financial journalist and TKer founder and editor Sam Ro. Together, they cover Sam's background, his curated newsletter approach, emerging data-quality issues at the BLS, and why human judgment still matters in the age of AI.Key TakeawaysWhat Sam Ro Actually Does All Day Sam is the founder and editor of TKer (pronounced ticker), a daily financial newsletter. He previously led markets coverage at Business Insider and was managing editor at Yahoo Finance. His role now is synthesizing market data and macro trends into clear, actionable insights for readers — many of whom are financial advisors.The Market Goes Up—Until It Doesn't Sam chose the slogan “The stock market usually goes up” for his newsletter because, well, the market usually goes up. But, as Sam cautions, it's important for investors to be prepared for downturns, or they can get badly dinged in the short term.Parsing the Data The group discusses a recent announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about collecting less data than before, and how budget cuts and staffing issues at the bureau could lead to less accurate data collection in economic surveys like CPI and employment reports.More Than Just Statistics Sam, who majored in religion in college, discusses the notion that data only goes so far in predicting the markets. Models can't predict everything, and sometimes you just need to embrace uncertainty and have a bit of faith that the markets will sort themselves out over time.AI Can't Replace Human JudgmentWhile AI chatbots now summarize reports faster—and sometimes more eloquently—than humans, Sam stresses that interpreting nuance and making editorial decisions remain human domains. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Sam:· https://www.tker.co/· X: @SamRo · LinkedIn: sammyroQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #SamRo #TickerNewsletter #MarketFlows #StockMarket #InvestorDiscipline #FinancialMedia #Macroeconomics #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese
In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, unpack the political feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — and what it signals for markets, sentiment, and investor behavior.But this episode covers more than just political drama: Ryan and Sonu break down what recent data says about inflation, the labor market, and Federal Reserve policy, while stressing the importance of not overreacting to headlines.Key TakeawaysTheater Meets Market Implications The Trump-Musk spat included insults, accusations, and the threat of government contract cancellations. Ryan and Sonu dig into how this narrative dominated headlines and its potential impact on investor sentiment.Markets Rally Despite the Drama Despite political noise, equity markets have remained resilient. The S&P 500 has posted strong returns since April lows, reflecting underlying market strength.Economic Data Is Mixed, Not Recessionary While headlines emphasize slowing job growth and sticky inflation, Ryan and Sonu stress that the broader picture doesn't scream recession. Job openings remain high, unemployment is low, and wages continue to rise.Fed Remains Cautious While job growth is slowing and inflation still sticky, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates paused for the foreseeable future—though a drop in inflation could trigger a reexamination.Watch Market Breadth and Participation Rather than obsess over megacap tech stocks, the hosts urge listeners to track participation across sectors and in global markets. Broader market strength is a bullish sign that shouldn't be ignored. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #LaborMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate #FinancialPlanning #WageGrowth #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #StockMarket #MacroTrends
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market's surface.Key TakeawaysMarkets Continue to Surprise on the Upside After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.Tariff Drama ContinuesA court ruling struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that's bolstered many investors.Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.No Sign of a Recession With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven't caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket
Tariff headlines are once again dominating markets after a legal back-and-forth last week on the status of Trump’s century-high levies. On Friday, President Trump said he would double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and accused China of violating an agreement with the US to ease levies. We got reaction from Carol Schleif, Chief Market Strategist at BMO Private Wealth.Plus- we go to New Zealand, where demand for 'golden visas' has increased under looser rules. The country has eased its rules in February to attract more foreign investment. We got reaction from Stuart Nash, Former Minister of Economic Development in New Zealand and co-founder of Nash Kelly Global.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
After some really messy economic headlines for the last few months, we may actually have some good news. To break it down, Nicole is joined by Ryan Detrick, the Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. Today, Ryan shares some signs he's seeing in the market that nearly always indicate good news ahead… and whether this time could be different.
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines.Broadcasting from Carson's 2025 Spring Partner Summit in Omaha, this conversation blends covers everything from Tesla and Palantir to Microsoft's AI momentum and more.Key TakeawaysTesla Is Not Just a Car Company: Dan emphasized that Tesla should be valued as a disruptive AI and robotics company, not merely an automaker. Autonomous robotics are seen as a core driver of its future valuation.AI Party Is Just Getting Started: We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution—around “10:30 p.m.” on an all-night timeline, according to Dan. He likens skeptics to party-poopers who will wish they had joined once the sun comes up.China Cannot Be Decoupled: Efforts to cut ties with China in tech manufacturing are unrealistic, says Dan. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese infrastructure, and disrupting this would have broad economic consequences.Apple as the AI Highway: While Apple may have lagged in AI innovation early on, Dan believes it will become the dominant platform for consumer AI applications thanks to its vast device ecosystem and installed base.Microsoft's Untapped AI Monetization: Despite a recent lull in stock performance, Dan sees Microsoft as massively underappreciated in its AI capabilities, especially within its enterprise customer base.Google (Alphabet) Is Underloved: Alphabet is currently the most underestimated of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, particularly due to overstated concerns about search being disrupted by AI.Palantir's Long-Term Role: Dan projects Palantir as a trillion-dollar company in the making, thanks to its growing role in enterprise and sovereign AI applications.AI Stocks Beyond the Headlines: Emerging names like Pegasystems, SoundHound, Veronis, and CyberArk are cited as under-the-radar plays in the AI boom, especially in areas like cybersecurity and data infrastructure.Autonomous + Robotics = Game Changer: Dan envisions a near-future where humanoid robots under $20,000 become household norms—transforming labor, transportation, and daily life.Bitcoin's Role in Tech: Bitcoin's institutional adoption is growing, and Dan sees it as a risk-on asset with increasing relevance, especially in a deregulated environment. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Dan:• LinkedIn: Daniel Ives• X: @DivesTech Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #DanIves #AIRevolution #TeslaAI #MicrosoftAI #TechInvesting #AutonomousFuture #InnovationEconomy #NVIDIA #Palantir #CryptoAndTech #ChinaUSRelations #BigTech #FutureOfWork #CarsonPartners #FinancialPodcast
Are Trump's unfunded tax cuts trashing America's “exorbitant privilege”? Has Europe stopped being "goodie goodie" and is it at last going for growth? Do Reeves's fiscal rules hurt her by ramping up damaging speculation? Steph and Robert speak with Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Visit: https://monzo.com/therestismoney/ Email: restismoney@gmail.com X: @TheRestIsMoney Instagram: @TheRestIsMoney TikTok: @RestIsMoney goalhanger.com Video Editor: Teo Ayodeji-Ansell Producers: India Dunkley & Ross Buchanan Head of Content: Tom Whiter Exec Producers: Tony Pastor + Jack Davenport Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
On Wednesday's AOA, we start the show discussing the MAHA Commission report along with thoughts on reconciliation and the sorghum yield contest with Amy France, Chairwoman of the National Sorghum Producers. In Segment Two, we get an update on various swine disease threats in the U.S. and around the world with Lisa Becton, Associate Director for the Swine Health Information Center (SHIC). In Segment Three, we talk about market action this week in grains and livestock with Ted Seifried, VP and Chief Market Strategist of Zaner Ag Hedge. Then we wrap the show with news headlines including an update on false reports of New World Screwworm in Missouri.
Wall Street kicked off the week with a rally in stocks as consumer confidence rebounded sharply while the US and the European Union sped up trade talks. A global surge in bonds also helped sentiment. We got reaction from Clark Geranen, Chief Market Strategist at CalBay Investments. Plus - Eastspring Investments just released their mid-year market outlook and said that they see greater upside potential for Asian and emerging markets as the dollar weakens and investors looking to diversify their portfolio. We speak to Vis Nayar, the Chief Investment Officer at Eastspring Investments.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Samantha LaDuc is the Founder and Chief Market Strategist of LaDucTrading, spotting major macro trends early and translating complex market structure data into tradable sector rotation themes. She talks the possibility of the Trump tax cuts, risks of decoupling from China, electric cars, thoughts on Bessent, Lutnick, bitcoin and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!! Watch Show Rumble- https://rumble.com/v6tpfwz-ai-the-neutron-bomb-of-information-samantha-laduc.html YouTube- https://youtu.be/S1Z-kg_BtzU Follow Me X- https://x.com/CoffeeandaMike IG- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeeandamike Rumble- https://rumble.com/search/all?q=coffee%20and%20a%20mike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Apple Podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coffee-and-a-mike/id1436799008 Gab- https://gab.com/CoffeeandaMike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com Support My Work Venmo- https://www.venmo.com/u/coffeeandamike Paypal- https://www.paypal.com/biz/profile/Coffeeandamike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Patreon- http://patreon.com/coffeeandamike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Cash App- https://cash.app/$coffeeandamike Buy Me a Coffee- https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeandamike Bitcoin- coffeeandamike@strike.me Mail Check or Money Order- Coffee and a Mike LLC P.O. Box 25383 Scottsdale, AZ 85255-9998 Follow Samantha LaDuc X- https://x.com/SamanthaLaDuc Substack- https://www.samanthaladuc.com/ Website- https://laductrading.com/ Sponsors Vaulted/Precious Metals- https://vaulted.blbvux.net/coffeeandamike McAlvany Precious Metals- https://mcalvany.com/coffeeandamike/ Independence Ark Natural Farming- https://www.independenceark.com/
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.Key Takeaways:PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation: CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.Macro Noise & Recession Probability: Macroeconomic forecasting in today's environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.Economic Resilience Remains Strong: Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth: Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable: Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.Why Lower Oil Prices Haven't Translated to Relief at the Pump Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven't followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Skanda:• X: @IrvingSwisher Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath
Host: Tracy Shuchart for MicDropMarketsThis spaces is brought to you by NinaTrader Live where you can find me every morning at 8AM ET to talk macro markets and at 2:30 PM ET to discuss the hot commodities of the day, streaming live on the NinjaTrader YouTube channel.GuestsTony Greer Tony began his career in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank then moved on to join Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader. He returned to New York to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs. Where he managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and in futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile ExchangeHe has worked for prop firms and the NYSE trading floor. In August of of 2016 Tony TG Macro to create an independent research firm where he could combine 25 years in trading and 15 years writing a daily newsletter into one analytical platform. Tony provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to a group of institutional clients and a personal subscriber base. He now also has the Macro Dirt Podcast with Jared Dillion. Bob IaccinoCo-Founder of Trading path partners and host of the popular Futures Edge Podcast and Finance Unfiltered Newsletter.Bob Iaccino spent the last 30 years in the commodities, futures and Forex markets.Bob got his start in 1993 by joining Nikko Securities (Japan's third largest brokerage house at the time) as a phone clerk. Bob left Nikko in 1997 to serve as Chief Market Strategist for Commerzbank Futures, the brokerage arm of Germany's 4th largest bank at that time. Bob left Commerzbank in late 2002 to become Chief Market Strategist for a proprietary trading firm based in Chicago, who gave him the opportunity to run his own commodity pool.He has appeared on CNBC, CNBC Asia, Bloomberg Television and radio, CNN, CNN International, CNN Moneyline, Fox Business News, First Business (Canada), Phoenix TV (China) and several local television broadcasts throughout the country.Disclaimer: This material is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, or any related financial instruments. Please contact a licensed professional before making any investment or trading decisionsEnjoy!
In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the surprising market rally, major developments in the U.S.-China trade situation, and what the latest economic signals mean for investors.After weeks of tariff tension and fear of global slowdown, calmer heads may finally be prevailing. From trade negotiations to market breadth thrust indicators, and even a glimpse into the Fed's next move—the guys cover it all.Key Takeaways:Tariff Ceasefire with China: A surprise agreement between the U.S. and China rolls back reciprocal tariffs to 10%, averting the feared trade war escalation—though another 20% tariff still remains. The market reacted with a strong rally, showing signs of confidence.Trade Talks Reset, Not a Resolution: Though framed as a deal by the U.S., China calls it an “economic and trade consultation mechanism.” The agreement includes a 90-day pause and commitments to future negotiations. Non-tariff measures like export restrictions are also being lifted.Market Reaction Shows Strength: The Dow surged more than 1,000 points, and market internals and technicals suggest bullish momentum and historical patterns point to strong returns ahead.Bull Market Signals Everywhere: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have officially entered new bull markets. Patterns like strong monthly returns and recoveries from steep drawdowns historically signal higher markets in the months to come.Fed Rate Cuts Delayed by Tariff Uncertainty: Despite soft April CPI data and signs that inflation is under control, the Fed remains cautious. Rate cuts that once seemed likely in June or July may now be pushed to September or later.U.S. Recession Risk Declining Again: After a temporary spike in recession probability post-Liberation Day, analysts are walking those forecasts back as data stabilizes and trade tensions ease.Long-Term Strategy Over Headlines: Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of staying invested through volatility. Market history shows the best days often come right after the worst—don't miss them by panic selling. Connect with Ryan: · LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick· X: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: · LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese· X: Sonu Varghese #FactsVsFeelings #MarketUpdate #TradeWar #Tariffs #ChinaUSRelations #StockMarket #BullMarket #Recession #Inflation #FederalReserve #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentStrategy #Economy #SP500 #MarketInsights #SonuVarghese #RyanDetrick
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett's retirement announcement, set expectations for the Fed's next move, and more.Key Takeaways:GDP Looks Weak at First Glance—But Isn't: GDP for Q1 came in negative for the first time in three years, but parsing the data shows there are still plenty of signals—though also plenty of uncertainty.A Fond Farewell: Ryan and Sonu reflect on Warren Buffett's remarkable career after his announcement over the weekend that he'd be stepping away from Berkshire Hathaway.Consumer Spending Still Strong: Consumer spending has remained high even amid tariff uncertainty, but auto sales have been a sign of weakness.Fed Uncertainty: Though it's still unclear when or if the Fed might cut rates, we should get some clarity this week.Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations, buoying the market during an uncertain time.Strong Stocks: The market ended April and opened May with a nine-day winning streak, a sign of resilience amid tariff uncertainty. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #GDPGrowth #ConsumerSpending #ImmigrationEconomics #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #StockMarketUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #EconomicReality #RecessionMyth #StagflationDebunked
Guy Davies, CIO of Fundamental Equities and Deputy Head of Investments, talks to Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist, about his outlook for equity markets amid expectations of further volatility and a persistent lack of clarity on the outlook for economies and central bank policies, notably in the US.For more insights, visit Viewpoint: https://viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com/Download the Viewpoint app: https://onelink.to/tpxq34Follow us on LinkedIn: https://bnpp.lk/amHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist Hightower Advisors; Head of Investment Solutions Ken Polcari, Managing Partner at Kace Capital Advisors; Chief Market Strategist at SlateStone Wealth Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Watch the video version of YouTube. In our thirteenth season of Insights Now, we delved into the research that informed our portfolio managers' investment strategies. Gabriela Santos engaged in insightful discussions with top-tier buy-side equity research analysts from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, covering a diverse array of sectors such as semiconductors, payments and fintech, industrials, utilities, healthcare, and financials. For the last episode of the season, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, and David Kelly, our Chief Global Strategist, reflected on the most memorable highlights from that season's extensive conversations. Additionally, they answered the top three questions frequently received from clients, which unsurprisingly revolved around economic policies emerging from Washington, D.C., and their potential impacts on the economy and markets. Resources: Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the market's strong rally amid tariff turmoil and examine whether policy pullbacks from Washington are signaling a win for the stock market.The duo also dives into technical indicators, sentiment extremes, earnings expectations, and the broader economic implications of continued trade tensions with China. Plus, a golden discussion — literally — about gold's recent surge and what it might mean for investors.Key Takeaways:Markets vs. TariffsPolicy SensitivityMarket Breadth & TechnicalsNear Bear MarketsTrade Impact LagFed & Policy OutlookEarnings ExpectationsSentiment ExtremesGold SurgeConnect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#StockMarket #Tariffs #MarketUpdate #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #S&P500 #Gold #MarketRally #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast
If you've got some dry powder - cash on the sidelines - now could be the time to put it to work. With markets off their highs, it might be a smart moment to buy while stocks are essentially “on sale.” Today on the Gains podcast, we're tapping into some of our top market minds - regular contributors who always deliver smart insights. Each one shares a stock pick or investment idea you might want to consider right now. Joining us: - Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO, KKM Financial (Chicago, IL) - Matt Shapiro, President, MWS Capital (Chicago, IL) - Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer, Cresset Capital (Chicago, IL) - Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group (Omaha, NE) -Tim Ghriskey, Senior Portfolio Strategist, Ingalls & Snyder (New York, NY) Make sure to subscribe to us on the Audacy app; leave us a review and rate us on Apple Music, too! Have a question for host Andy Giersher? Tweet him @Giersh. Never miss an episode from us! Hit the follow button on our Instagram and Twitter.
Damien Fournier and Lionel Gomez, Co-Heads of Private Equity, discuss the benefits and risks of private equity, as well segments such as venture capital and distressed investments, with Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist. They highlight the agility private equity brings in the current market and economic environment and discuss the opportunities in themes such as healthcare and energy transition.For more insights, visit Viewpoint: https://viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com/Download the Viewpoint app: https://onelink.to/tpxq34Follow us on LinkedIn: https://bnpp.lk/amHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist, sits down with Olivier De Larouziere, CIO of Fixed Income, to discuss some of the recent moves in global bond markets. Olivier reminds listeners that one things hasn't changed, namely the number one performance driver for fixed income remains carry.For more insights, visit Viewpoint: https://viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com/Download the Viewpoint app: https://onelink.to/tpxq34Follow us on LinkedIn: https://bnpp.lk/amHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Cathie Wood of Ark Invest to unpack the state of innovation in finance, the market's reaction to tariffs, and the evolving role of AI, Bitcoin, and government in shaping the future economy.Together, they explore whether we are entering a recession or exiting one, and how long-term investors can cut through short-term volatility. Cathie also shares her thoughts on manufacturing reshoring, AI's role in diagnostics and automation, OpenAI's dominance, and why Bitcoin might just be getting started. Key Takeaways:Market headwinds are turning into tailwindsRisk of a recession is on the riseTariff chaos could be offset some by tax cuts and deregulationAI will catalyze every sectorBitcoin and gold can be hedges against market volatility, but there's still uncertaintyManufacturing is coming back to the U.S., but with more automationThe government's role in innovation is evolving as the private sector progressesConnect with Cathie:• X: @cathiedwoodConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghe Relevant Hashtags:#CathieWood #ARKInvest #Bitcoin #AI #Tariffs #Innovation #StockMarket #Recession #FactsVsFeelings #TechnologyInvesting #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #OpenAI #Automation #EconomicOutlook #RollingRecession #Reshoring #DigitalAssets #Investing
In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer and host David Hagee is joined by KC Mathews, Chief Market Strategist, and Don McArthur, Director of Equity Research, to discuss corporate earnings and how tariffs may impact markets and the economy: How anticipated corporate earnings growth in 2025 has changed How the fluid tariff situation affects economic growth, inflation, and the U.S. dollar Our perspective on the interest rate environment Asset allocation and investment positioning amid market uncertainty Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts
Equity flows to exchange-traded funds diverged earlier this year, with outflows from US ETFs but inflows to European, emerging market and China ETFs. These and other topics feature in our quarterly ETF podcast with Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist, and Daniel Dornel, Head of ETF Research. For more insights, visit Viewpoint: https://viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com/Download the Viewpoint app: https://onelink.to/tpxq34Follow us on LinkedIn: https://bnpp.lk/amHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the ripple effects of tariffs, high interest rates, and a wavering investment environment on the U.S. and global economies.With companies freezing investment plans and government spending cooling off, the duo explores how the consumer remains the last line of economic defense—so long as the labor market holds. They also explore why the Fed might be making a mistake by keeping rates elevated, the possibility of a white-flag moment from President Trump, and how diversification remains the smartest play during times of uncertainty.Key TakeawaysTariffs Are Already Reshaping Corporate Behavior GDP Growth is Vulnerable Labor Market is the Tipping Point Fed Policy May Be Too Tight for Too Long The Market's Bull Case? Trump Waves the White Flag Next Week's Guest: Cathie Wood Our next episode will feature Ark Invest's Cathie Wood, as we'll dive into tech and recession perspectives.Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseMusic Credit: Ryan the Savior of Stocks – by Jake Guttman (This song was created using A.I.) https://suno.com/song/c11f8ece-b4b8-45f0-b6e6-ae0e761708b7Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #Markets #Tariffs #FedPolicy #GDP #LaborMarket #Investing #Diversification #InterestRates #TrumpEconomy #CathieWood #EconomicOutlook #ConsumerSpending
This new podcast episode is derived from the "Breaking News" BISA webinar conducted last week in response to current market conditions.Join John Olerio, BISA President and Head of Wealth Management at Lighthouse CU, Kevin McCarthy, SVP at Synovus Securities, and Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise for a timely 30-minute discussion on how you should be working with your clients during extreme market volatility.Topics include:Coaching advisors to handle client anxiety as well as their own anxiety.Managing proactive communication.Building trustHelping clients stay the course.The importance of financial planningLeveraging the learning moment for advisors who don't do enough financial planning.
In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the immediate fallout of last week's tariffs announcement and how it could impact both the U.S. and the global economy. They dive into the plunging markets, how a trade war could trigger a recession, the long-term impact of tariffs, and much more.Key TakeawaysMarket Impact: The immediate aftermath in the markets after tariffs went into effect wasn't pretty, with the Dow dropping more than 10% in two days. When could we expect some relief?Inflation Returns: Tariffs are likely to raise prices for most goods, and rising inflation could affect when and whether the Fed makes rate cuts this year.Recession Odds: With the markets in bear market territory, what's the likelihood of these tariffs triggering a recession?Delayed Impact: Manufacturing and labor market numbers in upcoming months may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs.Time to Diversify: Volatility in the stock market just further emphasizes the need for investors to have a diverse portfolio.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Tariffs #LiverationDay #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket #Recession
This week on The Patti Brennan Show, Patti sits down with Lauren Goodwin, Economist and Market Strategist at New York Life Investments, for an incredible deep dive into one of the most important trends shaping our future: Artificial Intelligence. Lauren's team recently published a powerful Mega Trends white paper on AI, and this episode breaks it all down — from the evolution of generative AI to what it means for your investments, your work, and your life.
In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Jess Menton, Senior Reporter at Bloomberg News, and Kate Hall, VP, Alternative Due Diligence, at Carson Group. The conversation explores career growth, industry challenges, and what the future holds for female leaders in financial services.Key Takeaways:The importance of representation: Women in leadership serve as role models, paving the way for future generations.Overcoming industry challenges: Jess and Kate share personal experiences navigating male-dominated spaces in finance.The power of mentorship: The guests discuss how building strong networks and mentorship opportunities are key to helping advance women in the industry.Market insights: The panel discusses economic trends, investing strategies, and the current state of the markets.Advice for the next generation: The group talks about how to encourage young women considering careers in finance and how the industry can better support them.This is more than just a market discussion—it's about leadership, resilience, and the future of finance.Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Jess Menton:LinkedIn: Jessica MentonX: @JessicaMentonConnect with Kate Hall:LinkedIn: Kate K. HallHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Turkey #InterestRates #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket
Interview recorded - 20th of March, 2025On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Chris Vermeulen. Chris is the Founder & Chief Market Strategist at The Technical Traders. During our conversation we spoke about his views on the market, risk of a crash, shift of momentum, precious metals, how long do cycles last and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Chris' view on markets4:10 - Market crash?6:20 - Shift of momentum9:02 - Precious metals11:14- How long do cycles last?15:12 - Picking the bottom17:20 - Global crash?20:45 - Treasuries22:40 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?Chris Vermeulen is a visionary investor who pioneered an industry-breaking method of investing called “Asset Revesting.” Chris introduced this innovative approach in his latest book, “Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement.“Chris's journey in the financial world began in 1997 at 16. Using his innate talent for trading and risk management, Chris earned enough money to pay for his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. He then transitioned into a full-time entrepreneur and trader, achieving financial freedom in his 20s.His expertise in technical analysis led him to create systematic processes that uncover unique trading and investment opportunities. A persistent advocate for managing portfolio risk, Chris has little faith in the buy-and-hold strategy, which often entails holding onto depreciating assets.Chris's innovative approach to asset allocation emphasizes efficiency, resulting in systems that manage portfolio positions, exhibit low drawdowns, and consistently outperform the markets. His short-term and long-term strategies are perfect for those seeking proven techniques to manage and protect capital.Chris is widely recognized as an exceptional technical trader, possessing profound insight and a keen understanding of market trends. He shares his wisdom in his book “Technical Trading Mastery, Second Edition – 7 Steps to Win with Logic,” further solidifying his reputation as a trailblazer in the financial industry.Chris Vermeulen - Website - https://thetechnicaltraders.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersYouTube - @TheTechnicalTraders WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Mar 28, 2025 – Jim Puplava and John Kosar, Chief Market Strategist at Asbury Research, dissect the stock market's recent struggles and the potential for a major bearish trend. They analyze key technical indicators, such as the S&P 500's 200-day...
In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist at Clearonomics, and Debbie Taylor, Managing Partner and Chief Tax Strategist at Carson Wealth, for a special Women's History Month Livestream. Together, they discuss their careers, recent market trends, and how investors can navigate today's economic landscape.Key Takeaways:Market Insights & Volatility – Are recent corrections normal? We take a look at the stock market's history following recent corrections. The Role of Women in Finance – Lindsey and Debbie share their career journeys, the challenges they faced along the way, and lessons from their time in the financial industry. Tax Strategies & Planning – Debbie discusses tax efficiency, investment strategies, and financial planning for long-term success. Economic Trends & Consumer Behavior – What do earnings growth, job markets, and tariffs mean for investors?Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Lindsey:LinkedIn: Lindsey BellX: @justLBellConnect with Debbie:LinkedIn: Debbie TaylorQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
It's been a wild ride on Wall Street. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Financial in New York, joins Andy Giersher on the Gains podcast to break it all down - what's driving the volatility, where the smart money is moving, and what it all means for your portfolio. Make sure to subscribe to us on the Audacy app; leave us a review & rate on Apple Music, too! Have a question for host Andy Giersher? Tweet him @Giersh. Never miss an episode from us! Hit the follow button on our Insta & Twitter.
In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the recent market correction, what history tells us about recoveries, and whether investors should be concerned. Plus, they discuss sentiment shifts, the strength of international markets, and what they see next for stocks.Key Takeaways:Understanding Market Corrections: The S&P 500 fell 10% in just 16 trading days — historically, corrections like this happen about once a year.What Happens Next? History suggests strong rebounds after quick corrections, with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 7.5% in three months and 15% in six months following similar drops.It's Not All Bad: While the S&P 500 dipped, international markets like Germany, Japan, and Europe have remained resilient, showing the importance of diversification.Investor Sentiment is Shifting: Bearish sentiment is at its highest level since March 2009, often a contrarian buy signal.The Fed and Inflation Concerns: Inflation expectations have risen, but real inflation remains under control. The Fed's next moves will be crucial.Diversification Wins: Bonds, gold, and low-volatility stocks have held up well, reinforcing the need for a balanced portfolio.Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.Key topics discussed:• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China
In this week's episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist are joined by Warren Pies, Co-Founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss market trends, recession risks, Fed policy, and, of course, some fun Pi Day and St. Patrick's Day talk. They dive into economic growth concerns, interest rates, inflation, and why a growth scare doesn't necessarily mean a recession is coming.Key Takeaways:Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there's no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong.The Fed's Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth.Government Spending & Deficits: Large fiscal deficits have been a cushion for the economy, but potential cuts could introduce new risks.Energy Market Insights: Oil prices are trending lower, which is good for inflation and Fed policy, but may present challenges for energy companies.Market Volatility & Rate Cuts: The Fed's reluctance to ease policy is contributing to a growth scare, but this may just be a temporary market correction.Housing & Economic Signals: While mortgage rates remain high, housing market fundamentals aren't signaling an imminent downturn.Pi Day & St. Patrick's Day Fun: We discuss Chicago's green river tradition, our favorite pies, and how Warren's firm got its name.Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Join us for a special Women's History Month edition of Facts vs Feelings, featuring top women leaders in finance discussing markets, investing, and industry insights. Register now: https://www.linkedin.com/events/7303883891440762880Connect with Warren: Website: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437/Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese#StockMarket #Investing #InterestRates #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #EnergyMarkets #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup #PiDay #StPatricksDay
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the "growth scare" and discuss whether the bull market still has room to run.Key Takeaways:Market Volatility & Growth Concerns: Stocks have pulled back due to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, but history shows that early-year volatility in a post-election cycle is normal.Tariffs & Economic Impact: Tariffs are sparking concerns, but the lack of a dollar surge suggests it may not spiral into a full trade war.Stock Market Resilience: While tech has struggled, financials, real estate, and consumer staples have shown strong performance, proving the market can broaden out beyond large-cap tech.Fed & Interest Rates: Despite inflation fears, rate cuts remain on the table for later this year, potentially providing a tailwind for stocks.Seasonal Trends & Historical Context: The first quarter of post-election years tends to be choppy, but historical data suggests a stronger market performance in the coming months.Consumer Spending & Economic Data: A sharp drop in GDP expectations is mostly driven by a trade imbalance and tariff front-loading, rather than an actual economic collapse.What's your take on the markets? Drop a comment below and let us know! Don't forget to like, subscribe, and share for weekly market insights!Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese#StockMarket #Investing #MarketVolatility #Tariffs #EconomicGrowth #InterestRates #BullMarket #FederalReserve #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup
Facts vs. Feelings Podcast | Episode 125 | Growth ScareIn the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the "growth scare" and discuss whether the bull market still has room to run.Key Takeaways:Market Volatility & Growth Concerns: Stocks have pulled back due to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, but history shows that early-year volatility in a post-election cycle is normal.Tariffs & Economic Impact: Tariffs are sparking concerns, but the lack of a dollar surge suggests it may not spiral into a full trade war.Stock Market Resilience: While tech has struggled, financials, real estate, and consumer staples have shown strong performance, proving the market can broaden out beyond large-cap tech.Fed & Interest Rates: Despite inflation fears, rate cuts remain on the table for later this year, potentially providing a tailwind for stocks.Seasonal Trends & Historical Context: The first quarter of post-election years tends to be choppy, but historical data suggests a stronger market performance in the coming months.Consumer Spending & Economic Data: A sharp drop in GDP expectations is mostly driven by a trade imbalance and tariff front-loading, rather than an actual economic collapse.What's your take on the markets? Drop us a message and let us know! Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comConnect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese
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Dan Nathan is joined by David Zervos, Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, for a comprehensive discussion on market dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical considerations. David shares his extensive background, highlighting his 15 years at Jefferies and his earlier experiences as a macro trader and advisor to the Federal Reserve. The conversation delves into the current state of financial markets, the impact of central bank policies, and the role of macro strategies. David provides his optimistic outlook on the efficacy of policy tools, the potential for deregulation under the new administration, and the prospects for economic growth and inflation. The episode also touches on the concentration of tech stocks, the importance of innovation, and the potential for deflationary pressures from technological advancements. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media