Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -Takeaways from this week’s Fed meeting -How the national personal savings rate can go up when tens of millions of Americans have been laid off -The decline in income of American workers Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 119:47 And I will delight myself in Your commandments, which I love. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=fac67e7b-653a-4948-b76d-c6fa480a2cdd Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A47&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -Why the jobs recovery in the U.S. has been different for workers producing goods compared to workers providing services -The leadership transition in Japan, with Yoshihide Suga replacing Shinzo Abe as prime minister Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 119:25 My soul clings to the dust; revive me according to Your word. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=fac67e7b-653a-4948-b76d-c6fa480a2cdd Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A25&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -The current state of coronavirus vaccine development -Why a labor market recovery may not occur in tandem with an economic recovery -A preview of this week’s Fed meeting Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 119:18 Open my eyes, that I may see wondrous things from Your law. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=28791792-213a-4c25-ab77-bb5d56636165 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A18&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services discusses: -Last week’s market performance -The results of a recent survey of institutional investors -How investors should build portfolios based on long-term investment objectives and not anticipated short-term market events -An article in The Wall Street Journal comparing COVID-19 to SARS and MERS Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 119:17 Deal bountifully with Your servant, that I may live and keep Your word. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=28791792-213a-4c25-ab77-bb5d56636165 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A17&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services discusses yesterday’s market performance; provides an update on the most recent unemployment data; and comments on the latest stimulus talks in Washington. Today’s Bible verse: Ecclesiastes 3:12-13 I know that nothing is better for them than to rejoice, and to do good in their lives, and also that every man should eat and drink and enjoy the good of all his labor—it is the gift of God. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=28791792-213a-4c25-ab77-bb5d56636165 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes%203%3A12-13&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -The recent struggles of the British pound resulting from trade uncertainty -The VIX, what it measures and why investors should not use it as a trading tool -Multiple investor questions, including GuideStone’s focus on fiscal and monetary policy developments relative to virus conditions when making portfolio decisions Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 30:4-5 Sing praise to the LORD, you saints of His, and give thanks at the remembrance of His holy name. For His anger is but for a moment, His favor is for life; weeping may endure for a night, but joy comes in the morning. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=28791792-213a-4c25-ab77-bb5d56636165 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+30%3A4-5&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services: -Provides important context around recent performance of the S&P 500® Index -Explains why volatility has picked up over the past couple of weeks -Comments on the declining probability of a Democratic sweep in the upcoming election -Highlights key priorities that may drive voters to the polls this November -Discusses oil’s continued slide and why this trend may continue Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 28:7 The LORD is my strength and shield. I trust him with all my heart. He helps me, and my heart is filled with joy. I burst out in songs of thanksgiving. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=28791792-213a-4c25-ab77-bb5d56636165 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+28%3A7&version=NLT

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses: -Last week’s unsurprising – and healthy – pause in the market -The current state of jobs in America Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 16:11 You will show me the path of life; in Your presence is fullness of joy; at Your right hand are pleasures forevermore. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=70f06cbc-d1be-4cb5-a492-6594f45ae921 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+16%3A11&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses yesterday’s sharply lower market performance and reminds investors about the importance of sticking with a strategic long-term investment plan. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=70f06cbc-d1be-4cb5-a492-6594f45ae921

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -How the Fed, FOMO (fear of missing out) and TINA (there is no alternative) continue to be the primary drivers of market performance -The ADP employment report, which missed expectations by more than 500,000 jobs -Why some investors are reconsidering the traditional 60/40 portfolio Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 119:14 I have rejoiced in the way of Your testimonies, as much as in all riches. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=70f06cbc-d1be-4cb5-a492-6594f45ae921 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A14&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -Recent investment flow data -August ISM manufacturing numbers -The difficulty Congress is having passing another fiscal stimulus bill -All-time high levels of corporate bond issuance -The market capitalization of the S&P 500® Index relative to U.S. GDP Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 119:12 Blessed are You, O Lord! Teach me Your statutes. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=70f06cbc-d1be-4cb5-a492-6594f45ae921 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A12&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -Recent stock splits from Apple and Tesla -Tightening presidential election polls as measured by PredictIt -Four possible scenarios for how the upcoming election could play out -The potential impact of a Biden presidency on financial markets Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 119:11 Your word I have hidden in my heart, that I might not sin against You. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c868bbf7-efab-4fec-9410-e7e6b55fb02c Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A11&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses: -Last week’s market performance and the rarity of 5%+ positive returns in both July and August -Warren Buffett’s recent spending spree on five major Japanese corporations -The implications of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at the virtual Jackson Hole economic symposium -Why Sir Isaac Newton may have been a FOMO investor 300 years ago -How the coronavirus pandemic has changed the way people use their cars Today’s Bible verse: Psalm 119:10 With my whole heart I have sought You; Oh, let me not wander from Your commandments! Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c868bbf7-efab-4fec-9410-e7e6b55fb02c Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A10&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -Key news stories making headlines this morning -Two of the most common questions being asked about the upcoming election -The likely outcomes of today’s highly anticipated speech by Fed chairman Powell Today’s Bible verse: Jeremiah 17:7 Blessed is the man who trusts in the Lord, and whose hope is the Lord. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c868bbf7-efab-4fec-9410-e7e6b55fb02c Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=jeremiah+17%3A7&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses: -Yesterday’s market performance -Key news stories making headlines this morning -The most recent consumer confidence data -A different perspective when looking at stock concentration Today’s Bible verse: John 1:12-13 But as many as received Him, to them He gave the right to become children of God, to those who believe in His name: who were born, not of blood, nor of the will of the flesh, nor of the will of man, but of God. Subscribe to our newsletter https://dev.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c868bbf7-efab-4fec-9410-e7e6b55fb02c Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=john+1%3A12-13&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, discusses: -Yesterday’s all-time high for the S&P 500® Index, its third in the last five trading days -The falling seven-day rolling average of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. -The current state of state budget deficits -Forthcoming changes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average -The astounding increase in stock valuations of some very well-known companies Matthew 16:15-16 He said to them, “But who do you say that I am?” Simon Peter answered and said, “You are the Christ, the Son of the living God.” Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=f7e8b634-f4e5-42c4-900d-c1852af3d9cf Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=matthew+16%3A15-16&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director-Investment Services, discusses: - Last week’s market performance - A potential new treatment for coronavirus patients - A recent poll that illustrates the challenging employment conditions many Americans are facing - Investment themes that have worked – and not worked – thus far in 2020 - Signs of an expanding economy, including a booming housing market and increasing business activity Today’s Bible verse: Revelation 22:4 They shall see His face, and His name shall be on their foreheads. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=f7e8b634-f4e5-42c4-900d-c1852af3d9cf Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=revelation+22%3A4&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director-Investment Services, discusses: - Yesterday’s market activity - Apple’s record-breaking $2 trillion market value - New developments in the quest for herd immunity against COVID-19 - Insights gleaned from the minutes of the July Fed meeting - GuideStone’s approach to factor investing, including how we view risk and implement it in a portfolio Today’s Bible verse: 1 Thessalonians 5:16-18 Rejoice always, pray without ceasing, in everything give thanks; for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=f7e8b634-f4e5-42c4-900d-c1852af3d9cf Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=1+Thessalonians+5%3A16-18&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, spends time: -Summarizing how the S&P 500 Index – “The Little Engine That Could” – moved from peak to trough to peak in just 126 days -Discussing the significant variance in market performance so far this year -Highlighting the potential future of airline cabins, as described in a recent Washington Post article -Diving into the dangers of using market factors alone to make investment decisions Today’s Bible verse: Matthew 5:14-16 You are the light of the world. A city that is set on a hill cannot be hidden. Nor do they light a lamp and put it under a basket, but on a lampstand, and it gives light to all who are in the house. Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works and glorify your Father in heaven. Subscribe to our newsletter www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/C…-0ff67b1405e1 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=matthew+5%3A14-16&version=NKJV

In today’s edition of the Morning Briefing from GuideStone Capital Management, Bret Curlee, Managing Director–Investment Services, spends time: -Summarizing yesterday’s market activity -Digging into a couple recent polls conducted by various news agencies -Discussing how the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, is well above its historical trend line dating back nearly 150 years -Commenting on Japan’s second quarter GDP, which was its worst on record -Providing insight into how GuideStone approaches market factors when making investment decisions Today's Bible verse: Psalm 119:60 I made haste, and did not delay to keep Your commandments. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=f77b5049-6443-4457-a28c-0ff67b1405e1 Bible resource https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+119%3A60&version=NKJV

The S&P rose last week, along with the Dow and the Nasdaq. The sixth of the past seven weeks where markets rose. Reversing course, both gold and oil dropped on the week. Interesting note: the average daily return since March 23 is 0.43%. Biden continues to lead Trump in most national polls. As part of the Fox poll, only 28% of respondents rated the economy as excellent or good. Take them for what you will, but the Biden lead has held strong thus through the summer. What happens on Nov. 3 is what will really matter. Today’s Key Questions - What’s the segmentation of unemployment claims? - Are consumers buying anything? What do retail sales numbers show? - Is COVID-19 set to make another surge? Today’s Bible Verse – Romans 8:37 Yet in all these things we are more than conquerors through Him who loved us. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=f77b5049-6443-4457-a28c-0ff67b1405e1 Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Romans+8:37&version=NKJV

This market continues to chug along. Stock markets jumped higher across the board on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (up 1.4%), the Dow Jones (up 1.05%), the Nasdaq (up 2.13%) and oil (up 2.5%) all up on the day. Believe it or not, the S&P 500 briefly returned to record-high levels during intraday trading before settling just below. Meanwhile, the U.S. saw its highest death toll from COVID-19 since mid-May yesterday. The 7-day rolling average has been above 1,000 deaths per day for 17 straight days. Across the pond, the UK continues to fight COVID-19 as well. UK GDP fell 20% for the second quarter and officials are warning of major job losses in the fall as government stimulus support expires. Today’s Key Questions - With COVID-19 creating a new normal – what habits and activities will never return? - Is inflation a risk? What about deflation? Today’s Bible Verse – Jeremiah 29:11 For I know the plans I have for you, declares the LORD, plans for welfare[a] and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=f77b5049-6443-4457-a28c-0ff67b1405e1 Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Jeremiah%2029:11&version=ESV

Stock markets went for a wild ride on Tuesday, most major indices finishing the day slightly lower. Gold reversed recent course and was down 4.6% on the day. No major headlines driving the market movements. Speaking of headlines, Joe Biden announced his pick for his vice-presidential running mate. And joining the ticket is…Senator Kamala Harris from California. Today’s Key Questions - Will Kamala Harris help Joe Biden’s bid for the White House? - How can a pullback in markets be a good thing? Today’s Bible Verse – Genesis 8:15-16 Then God spoke to Noah, saying, Go out of the ark, you and your wife, and your sons and your sons’ wives with you. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=2a42d6ee-eb45-4fc9-8385-a89ec716f512 Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis+8%3A15-16&version=NKJV

Most asset classes and sectors continued their slow crawl upward yesterday with the greatest increases coming from oil (up 1.7%) and value stocks (up 1.4%). Do you think rough waters lie ahead for the global economy? If so, you’re not alone – a recent survey from PcW showed that 75% of the 3,500 global clients surveyed are expecting a further downshift economically. America’s fiscal year ended on June 30 and the CBO released are first glimpse of COVID-19 on the country’s financial performance. The good news is that federal government revenues are only down 1%. The bad news? Spending was up more than 50%. Today’s Key Questions - Do the jobs/unemployment figures released from various sources paint a true picture of America’s workforce? - How does a decline in earnings impact a company’s P/E ratio? - Is the next move in the S&P 500 10% higher or lower? Today’s Bible Verse – Hebrews 11:7 By faith Noah, being divinely warned of things not yet seen, moved with godly fear, prepared an ark for the saving of his household, by which he condemned the world and became heir of the righteousness which is according to faith. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=2a42d6ee-eb45-4fc9-8385-a89ec716f512 Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Hebrews%2011%3A7&version=NKJV

It was another strong week for markets to kick off the month of August. For the week, the S&P 500 was up 2.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 3.8% and the Nasdaq rose 2.75%. On the commodities front, both gold (up 2.1%) and oil (up 2.4%) continued to rise. With Congress unsuccessfully reaching agreement on terms for additional stimulus, President Trump stepped. Through several executive orders, the President sought to create four key assistance programs and provide additional stimulus for Americans amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Today’s Key Questions - Does President Trump have the authority to push stimulus forward without Congress? - Is the employment picture improving, weakening or treading water? Today’s Bible Verse – Proverbs 29:18 Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=2a42d6ee-eb45-4fc9-8385-a89ec716f512 Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Proverbs%2029%3A18&version=KJV

After Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 3% in 2020 and just over 6% since the July 4th holiday weekend – what a run it has been. Both the Nasdaq and the Dow rose on Wednesday as well. As mentioned Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday… stimulus negotiations continued yesterday but still no deal. July employment data from ADP showed U.S. private payrolls rose by only 167,000 in July, much lower than the 1.2 million estimate. Gold prices have rallied 22% over two months. The raise has largely been driven by low interest rates, fear of inflation and weakness in the U.S. dollar. Today’s Key Questions - How much have stocks risen since the March 2020 low? - Are broad equity correlations breaking down? - Can the flight to gold last? Today’s Bible Verse – Jeremiah 32: 2-3 (NKJV) Thus says the LORD who made it, the LORD who formed it to establish it (the LORD is His name): “Call to Me, and I will answer you, and show you great and mighty things, which you do not know.” Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Jeremiah+32%3A2%2CJeremiah+32%3A3&version=NKJV

Gold and equity markets continued to rise on Tuesday. The S&P 500 is up almost 3% over last week and a half. Stimulus negotiations continued Tuesday but still no deal. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury announced that the U.S. government will borrow another $2 trillion during the second half of 2020. These additional dollars increase full year 2020 estimates to $5.7 trillion. Credit card data (JPM) shows a 10% reduction in spending by consumers in July 2020 from a year ago. One area hit the hardest has been retail with 43 major retailers declaring bankruptcy in 2020 and we’re not even through the summer yet. On the vaccine front, we currently have 11 potential vaccines in the running. About half are slated to moved into second phase of development while three are on track for approval during the fourth quarter of 2020. Today’s Key Questions - How many “big box” retail chains will shutter in 2020? - What are some of the unintended consequences of all this Fed stimulus? - How have the job losses impacted healthcare coverage? Bible Verse – Galatians 6:9 And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Galatians%206%3A9&version=NKJV

An overall quiet session on Monday with the majority of stocks slightly higher. So far, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported second quarter earnings and 8 of 10 have beaten (very low) expectations. Gold continues its rise – up 11 of 12 days since July 16. Current price per ounce of gold is just shy of $2,000. ADT and Google announced a new $450 million partnership on Monday sending the security service company’s stock up over 50% on the day. Lots of meetings on Capitol Hill regarding additional stimulus, but no deal has been reached. The two biggest issues remain the $600 additional unemployment funds and differences in party opinion in how much money should be allotted to state and local governments. Interesting piece of research from Strategas shows that year-to-date inflows to fixed income (bond) ETFs has outpaced those of equity funds by five times. Even precious metal funds have seen stronger inflows in 2020 than equity funds. Today’s Key Questions - Is the spread of COVID-19 slowing? - What government profit controls will be placed on pharma companies developing COVID-19 drugs? - How will the upcoming election impact markets today and post-November? Today’s Bible Verse – Daniel 2:20-21 Daniel answered and said: “Blessed be the name of God forever and ever, For wisdom and might are His. And He changes the times and the seasons; He removes kings and raises up kings; He gives wisdom to the wise And knowledge to those who have understanding. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Daniel%202:20-21&version=NKJV

Big Tech reported earnings late in the week, pushing Apple stock up 10% just on Friday. Facebook, meanwhile, was up 8%. Digital companies have faired fairly amid the pandemic. Other areas of the global economy, based off second quarter data released last week, have not fared so well. U.S. GDP fell 9.5% quarter-over-quarter and 32.9% on an annualized basis. In the EU, GDP fell 40.3% on an annualized basis. Stimulus talks continue in Washington with no clear deal in sight. Special benefits for the unemployed expired last week, and so far have not been extended. Accordingly, Congressional approval has fallen to just 18%, down from 31% in May. For the month of July, the S&P rose 5.64%. Of the 22 trading days during the month, 14 were positive. Today’s Key Questions - Is Microsoft buying TikTok? - Who will Joe Biden pick as his Vice-Presidential running mate? - Did a 17-year-old really hack Obama and Buffett’s Twitter accounts? Today’s Bible Verse – Psalm 61:2-4 from the end of the earth I call to you when my heart is faint. Lead me to the rock that is higher than I, for you have been my refuge, a strong tower against the enemy. Let me dwell in your tent forever! Let me take refuge under the shelter of your wings! Selah Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm%2061:2-4&version=ESV

Stocks up on Tuesday, led by the energy sector. Overall, the S&P 500 is up just over 5% year-to-date. Although consumer confidence remains muted, strength in the housing market continues to provide support. With roughly 86% of global fixed income yields below 2%, the Federal Reserve made no change to interest rates on Wednesday, stating that the “current state of growth not up to par.” They also added a sentence stating, “The path of economy depends significantly on course of the virus.” GDP reports for the second quarter are out. Germany’s GDP dropped 10.1% for the quarter – twice the decline experienced in 2008 – and the U.S. saw a 32.9% decline – triple the amplitude of the previous worst quarter on record. Today’s Key Questions - With stimulus support expiring tomorrow, will we see progress on a new stimulus bill? - How many public companies aren’t currently making a profit? - What will earnings for Apple, Amazon, Google (Alphabet) and Facebook look like this afternoon? Today’s Bible Verse – Philippians 4:6-7 Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Philippians%204%3A6-7&version=ESV

Markets stayed flat for most of the day yesterday before turning down slightly near the end of the day. Overall, 8 of 11 S&P sectors were down for the day. Gold continued to rise while silver took paused for the day. On the COVID-19 front, new coronavirus cases could be leveling off. Daily new cases dropped below the 60,000 level, a good sign, and both Pfizer and Moderna are entering Phase 3 of vaccine development. Pfizer has said they believe vaccinations could be in high demand through 2022. The NBER officially placed the U.S. economy in recession in June, but the website fivethirtyeight.com points out that most economic indicators ill-suited to measure the current state of the economy given the velocity of change. They suggest better indicators to watch are the weekly unemployment claims, continuing unemployment claims and oil demand – which is a proxy for consumption/activity. Today’s Key Questions - Which vehicle has seen a big increase in sales for 2020? Motorcycles or motorhomes? - Which indicators show the direction the economy is headed? - How much is savings would it take to make you feel comfortable? Today’s Bible Verse – Job 23:10 But He knows the way that I take; When He has tested me, I shall come forth as gold. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/en/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=d7c8d1d5-d951-4bc8-948f-434dcaa657b5 Bible resource – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Job%2023:10&version=NKJV

Markets broke a two-day losing streak yesterday, rising very slightly, as both gold and silver continued to rise. It looks like we’re headed for a historically best rise for stocks, bonds and commodities as we near the end of July. Yesterday was the release of the much-anticipated stimulus proposal from the GOP. At first glance, the package includes $1 trillion in overall spending. One headline is that the $600 stipend would be reduced to $200 per week through August and September, then there would be a shift to 70% income replacement starting in October. There’s some documented challenges with implementing the latter but they believe they have a viable strategy to do so. We’re three months out of the election and the Democratic candidate Biden is currently ahead in several polls. Currently, it appears only 13% haven’t yet made up their mind on who to vote for – which means like most elections, the middle few will decide the victor. FOMC meets today and Wednesday but don’t expect changes to rates but closely watching the language in notes released. Today’s Key Questions - How will the November elections impact policies and markets? - What are the chances of a Democratic sweep in November? - Which sectors stand to benefit from Democratic-leaning policies? - How much “dry powder” does the Fed still have? Today’s Bible Verse – Isaiah 40:28-29 Have you not known? Have you not heard? The LORD is the everlasting God, the Creator of the ends of the earth. He does not faint or grow weary; his understanding is unsearchable. He gives power to the faint, and to him who has no might he increases strength. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a

Markets were down slightly last week, no big daily moves like we’ve seen earlier this summer. It appears the flight to safety has found its legs again. Gold-backed ETFs have seen more than $40 billion in inflows so far this year, roughly eight times more than experienced during the same time period in 2019. This week we’ll see tech giants Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and Google (Alphabet) report second quarter earnings. Company earnings have been decent thus far but guidance for the second half of the year isn’t providing a real clear picture of the road ahead. On the coronavirus front, cases continue to climb. New confirmed cases grew from 3 million to 4 million in just 15 days. The ongoing impact of the virus continues to retail sales which have slowed in recent weeks. Today’s Key Questions - How many Americans will lose their home to eviction? - Will strength in the housing market continue to support the U.S. economy? - Is Europe poised to outperform? Today’s Bible Verse – 2 Corinthians 9:8 And God is able to make all grace abound to you, so that having all sufficiency[a] in all things at all times, you may abound in every good work. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource - https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=2%20Corinthians%209%3A8&version=ESV

Markets were up again on Wednesday. Gold continued its rise, up 1.3% on the day and more than 3% for the week. Tesla reported first full year of profits in the history of the company, making it now eligible to become a member of the S&P 500 Index. On the consumer front, existing home sales for June showed a 21% increase over May – the largest month-over-month gain since tracking began in 1968. However, the jump was coming off a very low level activity for earlier this year. With COVID-19 making a comeback in several states, office work is suffering. Three states where the outbreak has been most severe (Arizona, Texas and Florida), the number of in-office workers decreased by 5% from mid-June to mid-July. The European Union passed an aggressive stimulus package earlier this week. The 27-country consortium authorized the borrowing of $750 million Euros to be distributed between 2021-2024. The relief will be financed by the sale of Euro bonds issued by the European commission and carrying a AAA rating. The overarching goal is to stabilize economies across the region and limit the long-term impact of the coronavirus crisis on its economy. Today’s Key Questions - Are we too optimistic about a COVID-19 vaccine coming in 2020? - When will the tide turn for weekly unemployment claims? - Will the New York Yankees win World Series championship number 28 this year? Today’s Bible Verse – Psalm 91:14-16 “Because he holds fast to me in love, I will deliver him; I will protect him, because he knows my name. When he calls to me, I will answer him; I will be with him in trouble; I will rescue him and honor him. With long life I will satisfy him and show him my salvation.” Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource - https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm+91&version=ESV

Equity markets closed roughly flat on Tuesday but two common commodities – oil and gold – returned to their early 2000s form. Oil prices reached highest level since March 2020 and gold soared to its highest price since 2011. As additional Q2 data is released, it’s more rough news for consumer driven companies. United Airlines reported a $1.63 billion loss for the quarter, down from a $1 billion-plus profit a year ago. Open Table data for the month of June shows a 65-70% drop in restaurant reservations from June 2019. On the unemployment front, major urban areas are being hit harder than rural ones. Cities like New York (+20% unemployment), Los Angeles (19.5%) and Chicago (16%) all outpace the national average of 11%. However, cities like Seattle (9%), Houston (9.9%) and Miami (11%) have fared better. Today’s Key Questions - How does low interest rates impact retirees? - Anticipation for the MLB’s return is building, but does the spread of COVID come with it? - How is Walmart, the nation’s largest employer, rewarding employees for their hard work? Today’s Bible Verse – Psalm 91:9-11 Because you have made the LORD your dwelling place— the Most High, who is my refuge— no evil shall be allowed to befall you, no plague come near your tent. For he will command his angels concerning you to guard you in all your ways. Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource - https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm+91&version=ESV

Big tech stocks had a massive day on Monday, generating $291 billion from growth in market value in just one day. Amazon jumped $117 billion in market cap, Tesla more than $26 billion and Microsoft added $67 billion. Congress has returned to Capitol Hill and a new stimulus watch has begun. Democrats and Republican House and Senate members agree on the need for additional stimulus but have differing viewpoints on where the money should go and how it should be spent. Earlier stimulus programs passed in March have provided more than $15 billion a week in income to some 25 million Americans – these are set to expire at the end of July. Across the pond, the European Union approved an $859 billion stimulus package on Tuesday – a mixture of grant and loan programs. Today’s Key Questions - How many American families are working just as hard, but earning less due to cutbacks? - Does an up day for major indices mean an up day for all sectors? - Will a coronavirus vaccine be available by the end of the year? Perhaps sooner? Today’s Bible Verse – Psalm 91:2 I will say to the Lord, “My refuge and my fortress, my God, in whom I trust.” Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a Bible resource - https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm+91&version=ESV

Last week was an anomaly for markets recently – value stocks outpaced growth stocks and big technology companies led the Nasdaq to underperform. Despite an incredibly eventful year, the S&P 500 is basically flat for 2020. Some positive news on the consumer front. Thirty-year mortgage rates have fallen under 3% for the first time in history. June retail sales data has been released, showing a 7.5% increase versus the 5% gain that was expected. Consumer spending on gasoline jumped more than 15% as more people hit the road, and we also saw increases for auto, furniture, clothing and electronic sales. Today’s Key Questions - What happens to consumer spending once the stimulus expires? - Will economic data released this week show any improvement? - With 90 of 500 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, will earnings for Q2 be better than many expect? Today’s Bible Verse – Psalm 91:1 “Whoever dwells in the shelter of the Most High will rest in the shadow of the Almighty.” Subscribe to our newsletter https://www.guidestonefunds.com/Insights/Commentary/Article?item=c26cd591-c711-4cd3-b1d0-113e9522753a