Podcasts about nber

VOV1 - Tròn 10 năm Vương quốc Anh rời Liên minh châu Âu (EU) (Brexit), nước Anh đang cảm nhận rõ rệt những “nốt trầm” chính trị, kinh tế - xã hội mà sự kiện này để lại. Một cuộc tranh luận lại dấy lên về việc liệu Anh có nên tái gia nhập EU cũng như tương lai quan hệ Anh – EU sẽ ra sao.Dù kịch bản “sụp đổ” không xảy ra, song nền kinh tế Anh đang phải đối mặt với nhiều mất mát như: quy mô nền kinh tế bị thu hẹp, tăng trưởng kinh tế chậm lại; đồng bảng Anh mất giá, lạm phát, chi phí sinh hoạt liên tục gia tăng…Các rào cản thuế quan và quy định thương mại mới với thị trường EU lớn nhất khiến xuất nhập khẩu, đầu tư, năng suất và nguồn cung lao động của Anh đều sụt giảm nghiêm trọng.Các dự báo ngân sách chính thức của Anh ước tính nền kinh tế nước này sẽ nhỏ hơn khoảng 4% sau 15 năm Brexit, so với trường hợp họ ở lại EU. Cục Nghiên cứu Kinh tế Quốc gia (NBER) tại Mỹ dự báo mức độ thiệt hại còn lớn hơn, từ 6% đến 8%, trong đó đầu tư giảm tới 18% so với kịch bản “không Brexit”.Giáo sư kinh tế và chính sách công tại Đại học King's College London, ông Jonathan Portes, đánh giá:“ Đúng như các nhà kinh tế học dự đoán, Brexit đã tác động tiêu cực đáng kể đến nền kinh tế Anh.  Nền kinh tế Anh rõ ràng yếu hơn và nhỏ hơn so với trường hợp không Brexit. Có rất nhiều tranh luận về mức độ ảnh hưởng nhưng nói một cách tổng quát, chúng ta nghèo hơn vài phần trăm do Brexit. Tuy nhiên, đó không phải là một thảm họa”.Các cuộc khảo sát gần đây cho thấy nhiều cử tri Anh đánh giá việc Anh ra khỏi EU là “thất bại nhiều hơn thành công” và Brexit đã tác động tiêu cực đến nước Anh, do vậy họ có thể lựa chọn tái gia nhập EU nếu một cuộc trưng cầu dân ý mới được tổ chức. Kết quả cuộc khảo sát ở 15 quốc gia thuộc EU do Hội đồng Đối ngoại châu Âu (ECFR) công bố hôm qua (21/6) cho thấy có tới 66% số người được hỏi cho rằng việc Anh tái gia nhập EU là ý tưởng tích cực và có thể chấp nhận được. Trong khi đó, 75% người được hỏi ở Anh muốn Anh thúc đẩy quan hệ gần gũi hơn với EU. Các chính trị gia châu Âu như Tổng thống Pháp Emmanuel Macron, Thủ tướng Tây Ban Nha Pedro Sánchez cũng bảy tỏ sự ủng hộ nếu Anh mong muốn tái gia nhập EU.Ngoài hậu quả về kinh tế, Brexit cũng là một trong những nguyên nhân khiến nền chính trị Anh rơi vào bất ổn kéo dài với những chia rẽ sâu sắc trong nội bộ đảng cầm quyền và xã hội, làm suy yếu nhiều đời Thủ tướng do không dung hòa được lập trường các phe phái.Thủ tướng Anh Keir Starmer đang tích cực thúc đẩy chiến lược "thiết lập lại" quan hệ với Liên minh châu Âu (EU) nhằm tháo gỡ các rào cản thương mại, tăng cường an ninh chung và cải thiện đời sống kinh tế hậu Brexit. Tuy nhiên, phe bảo thủ và các lực lượng ủng hộ Brexit ở Anh vẫn phản ứng mạnh mẽ mọi động thái đưa Anh xích lại gần hơn với EU.Thủ tướng Anh Keir Starmer – đang đứng trước áp lực từ chức những ngày qua- thừa nhận:“Biết rằng mọi người đang thất vọng về tình trạng của nước Anh, thất vọng về chính trị, và một số người thất vọng về tôi. Tôi biết mình cần phải chứng minh họ sai và tôi sẽ làm được."Trong bối cảnh đó, các nhà quan sát cho rằng sự thay đổi thái độ, dư luận của công chúng Anh và ở châu Âu dù có thể tạo nền tảng thuận lợi cho Anh và EU thúc đẩy tiến trình cải thiên quan hệ trong những năm tới, song khả năng Anh quay lại “ngôi nhà chung Châu Âu” chưa phải là lựa chọn chính sách thực tế trong ngắn hạn ./.Võ Giang/VOV1Ảnh minh họa

Defence spending is rising whether voters like it or not. The UK has committed to 2.5% of national income and aims for nearer 3.5% over the next decade, £30bn a year for each percentage point. What does the country get back? Can defence spending be pro-growth?In this week's VoxTalk, John Van Reenen (LSE) argues that getting a return on investment based on innovation need not be left to luck. For example nuclear power, GPS and the internet all began as military projects. The spillovers can be planned for; the trick is to make defence spending innovation-rich, and make procurement work better.Traditional top-down procurement mostly produces lock-in: the same firms winning over and over. Van Reenen's study of a project at the US Air Force shows the difference: when it asked firms what they could build, rather than telling them what to make, the competitions brought in startups, generated more original patents, and spilled ideas into the civilian economy. The research behind this episode:Moretti, Enrico, Claudia Steinwender, and John Van Reenen. 2025. "The Intellectual Spoils of War? Defense R&D, Productivity, and International Spillovers." The Review of Economics and Statistics 107 (1). An ungated version is available as NBER Working Paper No. 26483.Howell, Sabrina T., Jason Rathje, John Van Reenen, and Jun Wong. 2025. "Opening Up Military Innovation: Causal Effects of Reforms to US Defense Research." Journal of Political Economy 133 (11). An ungated version is available as NBER Working Paper No. 28700.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and John Van Reenen. 2026. “Making defence spending pay.” VoxTalks Economics (podcast).Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestJohn Van Reenen is the Ronald Coase School Professor at the London School of Economics and Director of the Programme on Innovation and Diffusion at the Centre for Economic Performance. He chairs the Council of Economic Advisors to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and is a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the NBER. His research spans innovation, productivity, industrial organisation, and the public policies that shape them.Research cited in this episodeCrowding in, not crowding out. Moretti, Steinwender and Van Reenen tracked industries across twenty-three economies over several decades and found that higher defence R&D spending raised private R&D rather than displacing it, with knock-on gains for productivity growth in the following decades.The SBIR Open Topics reform. The US Air Force Small Business Innovation Research programme traditionally ran "conventional" competitions specifying the technology wanted; from 2018 it added "open" competitions inviting firms to propose any idea useful to the Air Force. Howell, Rathje, Van Reenen and Wong compared near-winners with near-losers and found the open awards produced new military technology, more original patents, and civilian spillovers such as venture capital funding; the conventional awards mostly produced lock-in.Spin-offs from military research. Nuclear power, GPS and the internet each began as military projects before becoming civilian technologies; Van Reenen reaches back further to the claw of Archimedes, built to fend off the Roman fleet at Syracuse, as an early example of defence invention finding a wider use.The Draghi report. Van Reenen worked with Mario Draghi on his 2024 report on European competitiveness; he draws on it to argue that fragmented standards and duplicated procurement across Europe waste money, and that common standards and joint procurement would let countries specialise where they hold a comparative advantage.More VoxTalks Economics episodesIn January, Tim spoke to Moritz Schularick of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy about whether Europe can convert its industrial base into credible deterrence. Listen to Can Europe Defend Itself?

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. https://www.kalshi.com/julia Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth 1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too"2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell"3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution"5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8%19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 202524:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history"26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors

Towards the end of last year, Australia did something no other country had ever tried: it banned social media for kids under 16. And a bunch of others are following with similar laws, first Denmark, then France, then Indonesia and Austria. All in, there are now more than 25 countries that have either implemented, or are actively considering, social media bans for kids. It seems like Canada is moving there as well. In April, the Liberal party adopted a non-binding motion to restrict young people's access to both social media and AI chatbots. All over the world, you can hear parents breathing a sigh of relief. They've spent the last decade watching their kids become hooked on their devices, and now we're doing something about it. It looks like we're finally going to get our kids back. But researchers like Candice Odgers are skeptical. Odgers is a psychology professor at UC Irvine who's been studying the digital lives of young people for almost 20 years now, long before anyone was worried about what social media was doing to their brains. She says there isn't really any research to suggest these bans will work. But her argument goes even deeper than that: she says the idea that smartphones have caused a youth mental health crisis just isn't supported by the evidence. So as governments all over the world start to kick kids off social media, and maybe even AI chatbots as well, Candice Odgers thinks we're making a serious mistake. And I want to know if she's right. Mentioned The Anxious Generation, by Jonathan Haidt (Penguin Press, 2024).  Australia's under-16 social media ban — the Online Safety Amendment (Social Media Minimum Age) Act 2024, in effect 10 December 2025 — eSafety Commissioner. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, “Social Media and Adolescent Health” (2024). Hunt Allcott et al., “The Effects of School Phone Bans: National Evidence from Lockable Pouches,” NBER (2026) — near-zero effects on test scores, attendance, and bullying. The University of Manchester #BeeWell study finding no link between social media/gaming use and later anxiety or depression, Journal of Public Health (2026). “The Kids Are All Right,” Scientific American (2026) — young people doing better than prior generations on many metrics. The Stanford-led evaluation of Australia's ban (Stanford Social Media Lab with the eSafety Commission), finding most teens stayed on the platforms — The Conversation. The early-1980s Pac-Man moral panic (Surgeon General C. Everett Koop's 1982 warning; municipal moves to restrict arcades) — Freethink. Section 230 of the US Communications Decency Act (47 U.S.C. § 230) — Cornell Legal Information Institute Canada's Gen(Z)AI youth assembly on AI (~100 young Canadians aged 17–23), Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, findings presented in Ottawa. Machines Like Us is hosted by Taylor Owen, produced by Paradigms, and distributed by The Globe and Mail. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Every day, billions of transactions settle between strangers who have no idea which bank the other uses. That lack of friction is not automatic. Nine-tenths of the money in daily circulation has been created by commercial banks, but it stays trustworthy only because central banks stand behind it, and keep the system in balance.In this week's episode Tim Phillips talks to Stephen Cecchetti (Brandeis University, CEPR) about what happens when new forms of digital money test that architecture. Cecchetti is one of the authors of the eighth Barcelona Report in The Future of Banking series, part of the Banking Initiative at IESE Business School, just published by CEPR as a free download.Will retail central bank digital currencies, tokenised deposits, and stablecoins upset the delicate balance of system that has been running for decades? Stablecoins, for example, do not create money, but they claim the status of money without the institutional guarantee that makes money trustworthy. Three jurisdictions — the US, the EU, and the UK — are each resolving the same underlying contradiction in different ways. None has fully resolved it.The research behind this episode:Niepelt, Dirk, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Hélène Rey, and Xavier Vives. 2026. Digital Money: The Future of Banking 8. London: CEPR Press. Available as a free download from CEPR.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Stephen G. Cecchetti. 2026. “The digital money supply.” VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestStephen Cecchetti is the Rosen Family Chair in International Finance at Brandeis University, a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and a Research Associate at the NBER. He was previously Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements, and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. His research spanning monetary policy, financial stability, and banking regulation has shaped both academic and policy debate over three decades. He blogs at moneyandbanking.com.Research cited in this episodeWalter Bagehot's lender of last resort doctrine. In Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market (1873), Bagehot argued that a central bank under stress should lend freely against good collateral at a penalty rate. The prescription remains the intellectual foundation for how central banks manage runs and systemic crises. Cecchetti invokes it to make the point that no private substitute for a central bank backstop has ever proved durable, and that the doctrine is now, one hundred and fifty years on, being tested by instruments its author could not have imagined.Monetary uniformity, mobility, and elasticity. The three institutional conditions underpinning general acceptance of money, developed in analysis by the Bank for International Settlements and discussed extensively in the report. Uniformity means a pound is a pound regardless of which bank holds it. Mobility means claims move between users and institutions at low cost and settle with finality. Elasticity means the supply of money can expand when it is under stress. Together they explain why we accept a deposit at face value without doing any analysis of the bank that issued it; and together they identify exactly where new forms of digital money create institutional gaps.Silicon Valley Bank failure, March 2023. SVB's collapse illustrates both the lender of last resort functioning and the limits of no-bailout commitments. Cecchetti notes that SVB's liabilities were still trading at par on the Thursday before its Friday failure because the Federal Reserve stood behind them. He also notes that Circle, the issuer of USDC, held $3.3 billion of its reserves at SVB and was effectively bailed out in the resolution. The episode is one of two occasions in the past twenty years where money market fund-like instruments have been backstopped by the Federal Reserve under stress.Genius Act (United States). Principle-based stablecoin regulation expected to come into effect in the US around 2027. Under its provisions, only stablecoins issued by bank-affiliated issuers will have access to the Federal Reserve; only those will therefore have the institutional backing needed to function as money. Stablecoins issued by non-bank entities will not.Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCA), European Union. The EU framework for crypto assets, which entered into force in 2024. For stablecoins, MiCA requires issuers to hold 30 to 60% of their reserves in bank deposits, with no provision for central bank backing. The stated rationale is to keep deposits within the banking system; Cecchetti notes this creates a different category of vulnerability and leaves the question of what happens under stress unresolved.Bank of England stablecoin proposal (United Kingdom). The Bank of England's approach differs from both US and EU frameworks by explicitly requiring large stablecoin issuers to hold significant reserve deposits at the Bank of England, making them in effect narrow banks with a direct central bank backstop. Cecchetti regards this as the most coherent of the three approaches in terms of institutional logic, though the same fundamental question applies: whether holding to that design under stress would be politically sustainable.Tether and the jurisdictional challenge. Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, is registered in El Salvador having previously operated out of the British Virgin Islands. Its tokens are held by users in multiple countries, traded on exchanges in multiple jurisdictions, and backed by US Treasury securities. Cecchetti uses this to illustrate why local regulation, however well-designed, is necessary but not sufficient; effective oversight of instruments that are genuinely global requires international standards and coordination.Fractional reserve banking and the goldsmith model. The institutional structure described in the episode has roots in mid-seventeenth century England, when goldsmiths began issuing more paper receipts than they had gold in their vaults. The goldsmiths became bankers; the paper became money; the vulnerability to runs became a structural feature of private money creation that persists today. Cecchetti uses the history to make the point that while technology changes how we store and transmit information, the underlying architecture of trust in private money is as old as Newtonian physics.More VoxTalks Economics episodesMaking banking safe, Stephen Cecchetti and Kermit Schoenholtz. Our financial system is supposed to be more resilient than before the global financial crisis, but that didn't save Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank or First Republic. So what went wrong?Related reading on VoxEUNew coins on the block: Digital currencies and the financial system. The authors of the Barcelona Report warn that “Digital money will be reliable only where sound institutions and robust technology come together.”

Did a recession strike the US economy starting in October? Not just the forgot how to grow kind we've been grappling with for the last several years, but the all-out, NBER-style, full-blown contraction. Take a look at the data and the charts in this video, let's see what you think. And that data is coming from income series the NBER itself uses when it decides the recession question. Eurodollar University's Conversation w/ Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------CEOs Turn Pessimistic About US Economy as Supply Risks Mounthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-28/ceos-turn-pessimistic-about-us-economy-as-supply-risks-mounthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

When global volatility increases, so does the demand for the dollar. When countries face sanctions, they rush for gold. But while the two have been the most common reserve currencies for decades, surprising alternatives are emerging. UC Berkeley professor and author Barry Eichengreen, along with IMF economists Chima Simpson-Bell and Serkan Arslanalp, track the dynamics of reserve currencies in their recent NBER paper. In this podcast, Eichengreen and Simpson-Bell discuss the changing landscape of reserve currencies. Transcript: https://bit.ly/43ovB4o

Matthew O. Jackson is perhaps the world's most renowned scholar of the economics of networks; as a 2005-06 CASBS fellow, he wrote most of his still-influential book Social and Economic Networks. In this wide-ranging conversation with 2025-26 CASBS fellow Rajiv Sethi, Jackson discusses his foundational work on strategic modeling of networks, empirical applications on the role of economic connectedness in influencing people's life trajectories in the U.S., related multi-disciplinary and cross-national work he is undertaking at the Santa Fe Institute, and recent cutting-edge work using large language models to gain insights into human motivations and behaviors. Matthew O. Jackson: Stanford faculty page | Personal website | CASBS page | Wikipedia page | Google Scholar page | National Academy of Sciences bio | Stanford profile | SFI page | NBER working papers | Jackson CV | Rajiv Sethi: Barnard faculty page | Columbia page | CASBS page | Google Scholar page | SFI page | Rajiv's Substack newsletter, Imperfect Information |  Matt Jackson works referenced in this episode: Matthew Jackson and Asher Wolinsky, "A Strategic Model of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory (1996) Matthew Jackson and Alison Watts, "The Evolution of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory (2002) Raj Chetty, Matthew Jackson, et al., "Social Capital I: Measurement and Associations with Economic Mobiliity," Nature (2022) Raj Chetty, Matthew Jackson, et al., "Social Capital II: Determinants of Economic Connectedness," Nature (2022) Chetty, Jackson, et al., Opportunity Insights Social Capital Atlas (website)Dynamics of Wealth Inequality project (Santa Fe Institute) Matthew Jackson, Social and Economic Networks, Princeton University Press (2008) Matthew Jackson, The Human Network, Penguin Random House (2020) Mei, Yuan, and Jackson, "A Turing Test of Whether AI Chatbots are Behaviorally Similar to Humans," PNAS (2024) Xie, Mei, Yuan, and Jackson, "Using Large Language Models to Categorize Strategic Situations and Decipher Motivations Behind Human Behaviors," PNAS (2025) --- Rajiv Sethi's latest op-ed is "Polymarket Anonymity Must End," Financial Times (May 7, 2026) Subscribe to Rajiv's Substack newsletter, Imperfect Information   Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (CASBS) at Stanford UniversityExplore CASBS: website | Bluesky | X | YouTube |LinkedIn | podcast |latest newsletter | signup | outreach​Human CenteredProducer: Mike Gaetani | Audio engineer & co-producer: Joe Monzel |

In this episode, we speak with Victoria Barone, Assistant Professor at the University of Notre Dame, to discuss her recent NBER paper that examines the possible relationship between the opioid epidemic and the political realignment between the Republican and Democratic parties. While the public health consequences of the crisis are well-documented, Barone's research uncovers a startling political fallout. We explore how the rise in opioid-related deaths and addiction has altered voting patterns, shifted party leanings, and influenced electoral outcomes in the hardest-hit communities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Christy Wolfe, director of K–12 policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, joins the Education Gadfly Show to discuss a new report on the American workforce—and what it means for K–12 education. As policymakers call for a clearer national talent strategy, which ideas echo past reforms, what's genuinely new, and should school improvement efforts shift from individual schools to districts?Then, on the Research Minute, Amber Northern looks at what happens when schools lock up student phones—and the results may surprise you.Recommended content:A Nation at Risk to a Nation at Work —Bipartisan Policy CenterReimagining School Improvement: What are Portfolio Districts? —Christy Wolfe and Robin Chait, Bipartisan Policy CenterState takeovers are back —Michael J. Petrilli, SCHOOLEDReformers: Yes, states should intervene in failing districts —Michael J. Petrilli, SCHOOLEDThe Effects of School Phone Bans: National Evidence from Lockable Pouches —Hunt Allcott, E. Jason Baron, Thomas Dee, Angela L. Duckworth, Matthew Gentzkow and Brian Jacob, NBER (2026)Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our show? We would love to hear them. Send them to thegadfly@fordhaminstitute.org

Um artigo académico do NBER analisa o impacto da IA generativa e agente na cognição humana e no ecossistema de conhecimento global. Os autores propõem um modelo onde a aprendizagem bem-sucedida exige a combinação de conhecimento geral partilhado com conhecimento específico ao contexto, sendo que a IA atua frequentemente como um substituto do esforço humano neste último. Embora a IA possa melhorar decisões individuais imediatas, ela corre o risco de desencadear um colapso do conhecimento, desativando os incentivos para os humanos explorarem e criarem novas informações. O estudo demonstra que, quando a precisão da IA ultrapassa certos limites, a sociedade pode atingir um estado em que o conhecimento coletivo desaparece, prejudicando o bem-estar a longo prazo. Em contraste, tecnologias que facilitam a agregação e partilha de saber humano aumentam a resiliência social e a prosperidade. Por fim, os investigadores sugerem a necessidade de regulamentação no design da informação para preservar a motivação humana para aprender.

On this week's solo episode, Mike Petrilli explores a big question: What would it look like to define an evidence-based model for American elementary schools—and could AI help us get there? Drawing on his long view of school reform, he considers what most schools have in common, where they fall short, and whether a clearer, research-backed playbook could improve outcomes at scale.This is a work-in-progress idea, and Mike wants your feedback. Share your thoughts at mpetrilli [at] fordhaminstitute [dot]org.Then on the Research Minute, Amber Northern examines new evidence on special education, finding that after students are identified for services, their achievement rebounds significantly—suggesting that individualized supports may boost learning more than previously understood.Recommended content: Both/and on test scores & school inspections —Michael J. Petrilli, SCHOOLEDFollow the Science to School: Evidence-based Practices for Elementary Education — Michael J. Petrilli, Kathleen Carroll, and Barbara DavidsonAn ode to elementary schools —Michael J. Petrilli, Thomas B. Fordham InstituteSpecial Education Substantially Improves Learning: Evidence from Three States — Stephanie G. Coffey, Joshua Goodman, Amy Ellen Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel, Marcus A. Winters and Yunee H. Yoon, NBER (2026)Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our show? We would love to hear them. Send them to thegadfly@fordhaminstitute.org

Altman Attack Plot, Wayback Machine Blocked, AI at Work Tops 50%, and Starlink Uses Grok for Support Host Jim Love covers four stories: police say the 20-year-old accused of throwing a Molotov cocktail at Sam Altman's home allegedly carried a document listing AI CEOs, investors, and addresses and now faces attempted murder and federal charges; more news organizations are blocking the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine over concerns like AI training and paywall bypassing, risking loss of an independent record of how online information changes; Gallup finds AI use at work has surpassed 50% of U.S. employees, though an NBER survey reports over 80% of AI-using companies see no meaningful productivity gains; and Starlink rolls out Grok-based conversational AI for customer support, with Love testing it and finding it generally smooth despite some limitations. 00:00 Headlines And Intro 00:44 Altman Attack Details 02:48 Wayback Machine Blocked 05:01 AI Use Hits Majority 08:50 Starlink Support Goes AI 09:51 Calling The Grok Agent 12:02 Wrap Up And Sponsor

Read the full transcript here. Could AI trigger an economic break as large as the Industrial Revolution, or even larger? What changes when labor stops being the main bottleneck in production? If intelligence becomes reproducible like software, what happens to the structure of an economy? How should we think about a world where capital captures what labor once did? Does faster growth necessarily mean better lives, or only more output? How should economists model an economy when software begins to substitute for minds? Are current production functions adequate for a world of autonomous systems and robotics? Why do small shifts in annual productivity matter so much once compounding takes over? How much of AI's impact depends on cognitive automation alone versus full physical automation? When does automation reduce labor demand, and when does it make human work more valuable? If AI does part of a job better, does that destroy the profession or increase demand for it? Under what conditions do humans remain complements rather than substitutes? Could an AI boom create a recession before it creates abundance? What happens to aggregate demand if white collar workers lose income before productivity gains diffuse widely? If the economy can produce more than ordinary people can afford, who is it really producing for? How quickly can consumption patterns shift in a world of extreme concentration of wealth? Anton is a Professor at the University of Virginia, Department of Economics and Darden School of Business as well as the Faculty Director of the Economics of Transformative AI (EconTAI) Initiative. He was named to the 2025 TIME100 AI list of the most influential people in artificial intelligence. He is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at Brookings and the Peterson Institute, a Research Associate at the NBER, a Research Fellow at the CEPR, and serves on Anthropic's Economic Advisory Council. His research analyzes how to prepare for a world of transformative AI systems. He investigates the implications of advanced AI for economic growth, labor markets, inequality, and the future of our society. Links: Anton's Website When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth? Economic Growth under Transformative AI Staff Spencer Greenberg — Host + Director Ryan Kessler — Producer + Technical Lead WeAmplify — Transcriptionists Igor Scaldini — Marketing Consultant Music Broke for Free Josh Woodward Lee Rosevere Quiet Music for Tiny Robots wowamusic zapsplat.com Affiliates Clearer Thinking GuidedTrack Mind Ease Positly UpLift [Read more]

March 24, 2026: Three major research reports dropped today with a combined picture of where AI and work actually stand right now. A landmark NBER working paper of nearly 750 CFOs finds AI had zero measurable employment effect in 2025 — but projects roughly 500,000 job losses this year, concentrated in clerical and administrative roles. The same paper finds a productivity paradox: executives believe AI is working before the revenue proves it, echoing a pattern economists last saw with the personal computer. Anthropic's new Economic Index reveals something most organizations are completely missing: experienced AI users have a 10% higher success rate than newcomers — not because of what they're doing, but because of how long they've been doing it. AI fluency compounds like a skill, not a software license. And a major Gallup survey finds college graduates are more pessimistic about finding a job than at any time since 2013, with software developer postings down 29% and marketing down 27% — but the real explanation goes deeper than AI displacement alone. Watch the full video on YouTube ---------- Start your day with the world's top leaders by joining thousands of others at Great Leadership on Substack. Just enter your email: ⁠⁠https://greatleadership.substack.com/ Quick heads-up: my new book, The 8 Laws of Employee Experience, is a practical playbook for building an environment where people do their best work—order a copy here: 8EXlaws.com

New research from early 2026 challenges the narrative that remote work is declining. An NBER study of 8,000 U.S. workers across 2025 shows employees at post-2015 firms work from home nearly twice as often as those at pre-1990 companies, with younger CEOs linked to higher remote rates. FlexJobs data reports a 22% spike in remote hiring and a 3% rise in fully remote roles in Q4 2025, with 67% of listings at senior level. Surveys show most workers value flexibility over pay increases, pointing to structural, generational change rather than short-term retreat.https://www.linkedin.com/in/remoteworklife/https://remoteworklife.ioSOURCESEntrepreneur (Feb 17, 2026)Forbes (Mar 2, 2026)Flex Index analysis (Jan 2026)Looking for Remote Work?Click here remoteworklife.io to access a private beta list of remote jobs in sales, marketing, and strategy — plus get podcasts, real-world tips and business insights from founders, CEOs, and remote leaders. subscribe to my free newsletter Connect on LinkedIn

Onde se analisa um estudo do MIT e do NBER sobre o impacto da IA agêntica na cognição humana e no património de saber da sociedade. Embora estas ferramentas otimizem a tomada de decisão individual e reduzam o esforço imediato, os autores alertam para um potencial colapso do conhecimento coletivo a longo prazo. A facilidade em obter respostas personalizadas desincentiva o investimento intelectual profundo, enfraquecendo a base de princípios gerais que sustenta o progresso científico e cultural. O artigo sugere que a precisão tecnológica máxima pode não ser o ideal social, caso resulte na erosão da inteligência acumulada pelas gerações. Consequentemente, defende-se uma governação estratégica que utilize a IA para apoiar a aprendizagem, em vez de simplesmente substituir a capacidade humana de compreender e teorizar.

Everyone is panicking about AI taking jobs, but some new data from NBER indicates we may have a different problem on our hands, especially when we take into consideration the impending labor shortage.However, it's worth noting that headlines can be deceiving. The data reveals a much more sobering reality that shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone actually looking at the demographics. Despite the hype, a massive study of 6,000 firms reveals that the projected job loss from AI is a rounding error, just 0.7% globally over the next three years. In summary, while the "fear" of AI is skyrocketing, the absolute impact is miles away from "replacement." So, while countless voices are claiming AI is coming for your job, the real crisis is empty desks, not unemployment.This week, I'm digging into the new NBER report and comparing the "Grim Reaper" narrative against the stark reality of the global labor market. This isn't a tech review but a workforce reality check. I explain why a 1.2% reduction in US jobs is technically a loss but practically a disaster when matched against the 3 million Boomers retiring annually. I'm also stripping away the alarmist headlines to show you why the "Mass Layoff" narrative is being driven by fear, not financial reality.My goal is to move you out of "Protectionism" to "Preparation" by exposing the specific blind spots threatening your P&L.The "Grim Reaper" Myth (Data vs. Doom): We've been told mass layoffs are imminent, yet the NBER data proves the "impact" is barely scratching 1%. I break down why leaders aren't planning to fire their teams—they are desperately trying to figure out how to replace the talent that is walking out the door due to retirement.The "Tinkering" Trap (Usage vs. Utility): We love to believe we are transforming, but the average executive only uses AI for 1.5 hours a week. I call out the uncomfortable truth that "casual use" yields zero productivity gains and why you need to move from "users" to "surgical pilots" immediately if you want to survive the talent crunch.The "Brain Drain" Emergency (Mentorship as Survival): You cannot automate institutional knowledge. I share why the "Apprenticeship" model must flip, using AI for drafting so seasoned folks can focus on coaching, and why leadership development is now a survival mechanism to capture wisdom before it retires.By the end, I hope you see this data not as a reason to ignore AI, but as a mandate for urgency. You cannot simply wait for the labor shortage to hit; you have to build the infrastructure now that can sustain your business when the talent pool dries up.⸻If this conversation helps you think more clearly about the future we're building, make sure to like, share, and subscribe. You can also support the show by ⁠buying me a coffee at https://buymeacoffee.com/christopherlindAnd if your organization is wrestling with how to lead responsibly in the AI era, balancing performance, technology, and people, that's the work I do every day through my consulting and coaching. Learn more at https://christopherlind.co⸻Chapters00:00 – The Hook: The "Grim Reaper" Narrative is Dead Wrong04:15 – Declassifying the NBER Data: 6,000 Firms Speak09:30 – The "Napkin Math": AI Job Cuts vs. Demographic Cliff14:45 – Action 1: The "Lazy Planning" Trap (Audit Your Exit Ramp)21:10 – Action 2: Stop Tinkering (Moving from Casual to Surgical AI)27:45 – Action 3: The Leadership Emergency (Apprenticeship is Survival)33:20 – The "Now What": Don't Wait for Empty Desks#NBER #WorkforcePlanning #LaborShortage #AIStrategy #FutureOfWork #Leadership #ChristopherLind #FutureFocused #TalentCrisis #Demographics

Feb 17, 2026: Today I break down five signals that are quietly reshaping work: OpenAI hiring the creator of OpenClaw—a major shift from chatbots that talk to agents that act Why "supervisors are disappearing," and how title inflation is quietly breaking the career ladder The AI productivity paradox (backed by new NBER research): adoption is real, impact is lagging Anthropic's push into "work tools" and the battle to own the workflow layer Australia's psychosocial safety rules—and why well-intentioned mandates can spiral into dependency, bureaucracy, and leadership abdication if we don't draw boundaries  

John Singleton, an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Rochester, joins Paul E. Peterson to discuss Singleton's latest research, which uses large-language AI models to determine the viewpoints and priorities  of school board members in California. "Identity and Ideology in the School Boardroom," co-written with Barbara Biasi, Minseon Park, and Seth D. Zimmerman, is available now at NBER.org.

A new NBER study argues the real risk from AI isn't which jobs are exposed, but which workers lack the savings, transferable skills, mobility, and age advantage to adapt when disruption hits. While many highly exposed professionals appear relatively resilient, a smaller and more vulnerable group—disproportionately women in clerical and administrative roles—faces the greatest danger, suggesting policy should focus less on abstract job loss and more on rapid, targeted support for those least able to adjust. In the headlines: OpenAI pledges community-focused data center investments, the White House pushes an emergency power auction to address rising electricity costs, and Davos leaders debate whether AI disruption may outpace society's ability to respond.Brought to you by:KPMG – Discover how AI is transforming possibility into reality. Tune into the new KPMG 'You Can with AI' podcast and unlock insights that will inform smarter decisions inside your enterprise. Listen now and start shaping your future with every episode. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.kpmg.us/AIpodcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Zencoder - From vibe coding to AI-first engineering - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://zencoder.ai/zenflow⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Optimizely Opal - The agent orchestration platform build for marketers - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.optimizely.com/theaidailybrief⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AssemblyAI - The best way to build Voice AI apps - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.assemblyai.com/brief⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Section - Build an AI workforce at scale - ⁠https://www.sectionai.com/⁠LandfallIP - AI to Navigate the Patent Process - https://landfallip.com/Robots & Pencils - Cloud-native AI solutions that power results ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://robotsandpencils.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Agent Readiness Audit from Superintelligent - Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://besuper.ai/ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠to request your company's agent readiness score.The AI Daily Brief helps you understand the most important news and discussions in AI. Subscribe to the podcast version of The AI Daily Brief wherever you listen: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://pod.link/1680633614⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Interested in sponsoring the show? sponsors@aidailybrief.ai

Joshua Goodman, an associate professor of education and of economics at Boston University Wheelock College of Education & Human Development, joins Paul E. Peterson to discuss Goodman's latest research, which looks into how the job market can impact college enrollment in two-year institutions. "Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment," co-written with Joseph Winkelmann, is available now at NBER. https://www.nber.org/papers/w34498

Economist John N. Friedman has made a career researching the causes of inequality and its long-term consequences for children in the US. His findings are grim. Social mobility is in sharp decline. Where you live and go to school increasingly determines your success and future.  Friedman explores how policy can harness schools, neighbourhoods, universities, and social capital to reverse this trend, and revive a fading "American Dream" of progress and social mobility. And what this could mean in a country like Australia.    John N. Friedman is the Briger Family Distinguished Professor of Economics and International and Public Affairs at Brown University, as well as a founding co-Director of Opportunity Insights. His work uses big data to study the causes and consequences of inequality for kids, as well as policies to improve opportunity for children from disadvantaged backgrounds. His work has appeared in top academic journals as well as in major media outlets, has been cited by President Obama in his 2012 State of the Union Address, and has shaped policies at the federal, state, and local level. He worked as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy at the National Economic Council in the White House. He is also a Research Associate at NBER and Co-Editor at the flagship journal in the profession, the American Economic Review. He currently serves as Chair of the Brown University Economics Department and is a member of the Treasury Advisory Council on Racial Equity (TACRE).

Listen to this audio of a GeorgetownCRI webinar held on September 10, 2025 exploring why so few small businesses take advantage of tax credits designed to help them offer retirement plans. Despite substantial expansions to the Section 45E tax credit through the SECURE Acts, fewer than 6% of eligible firms actually claim it—a puzzle that a new CRI working paper, cross-published by NBER, seeks to unravel. Joining moderator Angela Antonelli, Executive Director of Georgetown's Center for Retirement Initiatives, are panelists Adam Bloomfield, Non-Resident Scholar at CRI; Stephanie Liu Cossart, Principal Product Manager at Gusto; Kendra Isaacson, Principal at Mindset; and Sita Slavov, Professor at George Mason University's Schar School. Together, they examine what drives—or hinders—the use of these tax incentives and what policymakers need to understand about reaching their intended beneficiaries.

Affirmative action and DEI have become lightning rods in today's culture wars, but how much do we really know about where they came from and why they exist? In this episode, Sergio breaks down the long history of systemic racism in America, from slavery and Jim Crow to redlining and modern hiring bias. You'll learn what affirmative action actually is, what DEI really means, and how both have shaped access, opportunity, and fairness for everyone not just a few. This isn't about guilt. It's about awareness. Because when you understand the history, you start to see the patterns. And once you see them, you can't unsee them.1.Intro2. America's Original Construction Project3. The Evolution of Inequality4. Who's Really Getting the Handout?5. Before Affirmative Action, There Was Just...Discrimination6. DEI for Dummies: The Part They Never Told YouSources & References:• Bertrand, M., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). Are Emily and Greg more employable than Lakisha and Jamal? A field experiment on labor market discrimination. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9873• Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. (n.d.). EEOC history: 1964–1969. U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. https://www.eeoc.gov/history/eeoc-history-1964-1969• National Park Service. (n.d.). Equal Pay Act of 1963. U.S. Department of the Interior. https://www.nps.gov/articles/equal-pay-act.htm• Pittsburgh Press Co. v. Pittsburgh Commission on Human Relations, 413 U.S. 376 (1973). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittsburgh_Press_Co._v._Pittsburgh_Commission_on_Human_Relations• University of Washington. (n.d.). Racial restrictive covenants: Enforcing neighborhood segregation in Seattle. Civil Rights & Labor History Consortium. https://depts.washington.edu/civilr/covenants_report.htm• Jones-Correa, M. (2000). Origins and diffusion of racial restrictive covenants. Political Science Quarterly, 115(4), 541–568. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2657609• Urban Institute. (2023). Addressing the legacies of historical redlining. https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2023-01/Addressing%20the%20Legacies%20of%20Historical%20Redlining.pdf• Nardone, A., Casey, J. A., Morello-Frosch, R., Mujahid, M., Balmes, J., & Thakur, N. (2020). Associations between historical residential redlining and current age-adjusted rates of emergency department visits due to asthma across eight cities in California. The Lancet Planetary Health, 4(1), e24–e31. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9901820/• Pager, D., Western, B., & Bonikowski, B. (2009). Discrimination in a low-wage labor market: A field experiment. American Sociological Review, 74(5), 777–799. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2915472/• Corrigan v. Buckley, 271 U.S. 323 (1926). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrigan_v._Buckley• ADA National Network. “Timeline of the Americans with Disabilities Act.” adata.org. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://adata.org/ada-timeline• Administration for Community Living. “Origins of the ADA.” acl.gov. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://acl.gov/ada/origins-of-the-ada• U.S. Department of Justice. “Introduction to the Americans with Disabilities Act.” ada.gov. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://www.ada.gov/topics/intro-to-ada/• Section508.gov. “IT Accessibility Laws and Policies.” section508.gov. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://www.section508.gov/manage/laws-and-policies/• BrownGold. “DEI & A: The Effect of Donald Trump's DEI Executive Order on Accessibility.” browngold.com. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://browngold.com/blog/dei-a-the-effect-of-donald-trumps-dei-executive-order-on-accessibility/• Wikipedia. “Architectural Barriers Act of 1968.” Wikipedia.org. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Architectural_Barriers_Act_of_1968• Michigan State University Libraries. “Advancing Accessibility: A Timeline.” lib.msu.edu. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://lib.msu.edu/exhibits/advancing-accessibility/timeline• Duane Morris LLP. “ADA Considerations for Neurodiversity Hiring Programs.” duanemorris.com. August 3, 2023. https://www.duanemorris.com/articles/ada_considerations_for_neurodiversity_hiring_programs_0803.html• Autism Spectrum News. “Neurodiversity Hiring Programs: A Path to Employment.” autismspectrumnews.org. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://autismspectrumnews.org/neurodiversity-hiring-programs-a-path-to-employment/Institute for Diversity Certification. “What Does It Mean to Provide Reasonable Workplace Accommodations for Your Neurodiverse Employees?” diversitycertification.org. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://www.diversitycertification.org/deia-matters-blog/what-does-it-mean-to-provide-reasonable-workplace-accommodations-for-your-neurodiverse-employeesKatznelson, I. (2005). When affirmative action was white: An untold history of racial inequality in twentieth-century America. W. W. Norton & Company. (See summary: History & Policy).• Onkst, D. H. (1998). “'First a negro… incidentally a veteran': Black World War II veterans and the G.I. Bill of Rights in the Deep South, 1944–1948.” Journal of Social History, 32(3), 517–543.• Blakemore, E. (2019; updated 2025). “How the GI Bill's promise was denied to a million Black WWII veterans.” History.com. https://www.history.com/articles/gi-bill-black-wwii-veterans-benefits.• Heller School, Brandeis University. (2023). “Not all WWII veterans benefited equally from the GI Bill” (impact report). https://heller.brandeis.edu/news/items/releases/2023/impact-report-gi-bill.html.• Perea, J. F. (2014). [Law review article on GI Bill and race]. University of Pittsburgh Law Review (available as PDF).• NBER working paper(s). (2024–2025). “Quantifying Racial Discrimination in the 1944 GI Bill” (authors and links in NBER repository). 

In this episode, Generation AI analyzes groundbreaking research from OpenAI and Anthropic that reveals how AI usage is fundamentally different than expected. Hosts Ardis Kadiu and Dr. JC Bonilla dissect OpenAI's study of 1.5 million ChatGPT conversations, uncovering that 70% of usage is now personal rather than work-related - a complete reversal from initial predictions about enterprise productivity gains. They explore how ChatGPT has reached 700 million weekly active users with 90% of usage now outside the US in less than 3 years (compared to 23 years for the internet), while Claude data shows enterprise users focusing heavily on coding (36% of usage) and autonomous workflows (39% of conversations). The discussion reveals critical implications for higher education: while consumer AI adoption explodes globally with gender parity achieved (52% women users), institutions remain stuck with budget constraints, scattered use cases, and talent retention issues. This episode provides essential insights for education leaders on why the shift toward personal productivity and home-based AI usage creates both untapped opportunities and urgent challenges for institutional AI strategy heading into 2026.OpenAI's Massive ChatGPT Usage Study Overview (00:02:08)Analysis of 1.5 million ChatGPT conversations through NBER working paper700 million weekly active users, most comprehensive AI usage study everCollaboration between OpenAI Economic Research, Harvard economist David Deming, and NBERConsumer plans only - excludes enterprise and API usageSample represents massive scale given ChatGPT's global reachExplosive Growth Patterns and Metrics (00:05:27)Reached 100 million weekly users in under one year (unprecedented speed)Message volume growing even faster than user countAverage user sends 7-8 messages per day (up from 2x in 2024)Cohort analysis shows steady usage for existing users, new users driving intensityGrowth accelerates with each major model releaseGlobal Adoption Outpacing All Previous Technologies (00:08:09)90% of usage now outside North America (achieved in under 3 years)Internet took 23 years to reach same international distributionLower-income countries showing fastest adoption ratesImplications for international marketing and student recruitment strategiesGlobal phenomenon across all economic levelsGender Parity Achievement (00:11:30)Women users increased from 37% (January 2024) to 52% (July 2025)Based on analysis of typically feminine vs masculine namesReflects natural population distribution (50/50 split)Usage patterns now mirror general population demographicsThe Personal vs. Work Usage Revelation (00:13:24)Work-related usage dropped from 47% to only 27%Over 70% of ChatGPT usage is personal/non-work relatedHidden economics of home productivity emerging (not captured in GDP)Similar pattern to mobile device "bring your own device" adoptionEnterprise adoption significantly slower than consumerUsage Intent Categories and Detailed Breakdown (00:16:37)Three main categories: Asking (49%), Doing (40%), Expressing (11%)Practical guidance: 28.8% (top use case)Seeking information: 24.4% (up from 18% year-over-year)Writing: 23.9% (declining as users discover new applications)Multimedia: 7.3% (peaked at 12% after GPT-4o image features)Technical help: ~5%Self-expression: ~5%Specific High-Demand Use Cases (00:19:32)Tutoring/teaching: 10.2% (major opportunity for ed-tech)How-to advice: 8.5% (vertical SaaS potential)Personal writing & editing: 18% (demand for AI co-pilots)Coding in ChatGPT: Only 4.2% (compared to 36% in Claude)Each use case bar represents potential startup opportunity or graveyardClaude/Anthropic Enterprise Usage Analysis (00:27:42)Coding dominates: 36% of Claude usageAutonomous workflows: 39% of conversations (up from 27%)API automation: 77% of business API tasks are full automationMore complex multi-step workflows emergingGeographic usage reflects local economies (NYC: finance, Hawaii: tourism, Massachusetts: science)The Context and Data Bottleneck (00:34:52)Major enterprise bottleneck: Data/context readinessShift from prompt engineering to context orchestration for 2026Context engineering becoming the critical capabilityIntegration with existing platforms determines successOrchestration requires both technology and specialized talentEnterprise AI Economics and Priorities (00:37:26)Companies prioritize capability over cost savingsModel capabilities drive adoption more than pricingBusinesses "lean into automation over cost savings"Not yet highly price sensitive - capacity matters moreBudget lines for AI becoming essential planning itemHigher Education Specific Challenges (00:42:41)Minority of institutions identify as AI leaders75% of CDOs see moderate risk to academic integrityMost exploring scattered use cases vs. campus-wide programsBudget constraints remain primary blockerMarketing and enrollment teams leading adoptionStudent support and advising showing strong use casesTalent retention crisis as AI champions leave for better opportunitiesLabor Market Implications and Timeline (00:45:48)Fortune reports AI potentially replacing entry-level workersContext-heavy work remains difficult to fully automateAnthropic predicts powerful automated systems by late 2026-early 2027Low-hanging fruit automation tasks already saturatingNeed to view AI as outcomes rather than featuresKey Strategic Takeaways (00:46:47)Consolidation into integrated platforms expected for 2026Data connectors and ecosystem integration criticalConsumer adoption patterns informing enterprise strategyHome productivity gains creating new economic value unmeasured by GDPInstitutions need separate AI budget lines immediatelyPlatform strategy required vs. point solutions - - - -Connect With Our Co-Hosts:Ardis Kadiuhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/ardis/https://twitter.com/ardisDr. JC Bonillahttps://www.linkedin.com/in/jcbonilla/https://twitter.com/jbonillxAbout The Enrollify Podcast Network:Generation AI is a part of the Enrollify Podcast Network. If you like this podcast, chances are you'll like other Enrollify shows too! Enrollify is made possible by Element451 — The AI Workforce Platform for Higher Ed. Learn more at element451.com. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, Dr. Sabba Quidwai and Stefan Bauschard explore groundbreaking findings from a study released by OpenAI and Anthropic on how people are really using AI tools like ChatGPT. From tutoring and personalized learning to writing assistance and decision-making, they break down what 700 million weekly users reveal about how AI is transforming everyday life. With special focus on education, agency, and future-ready skills, this conversation is a wake-up call for schools, institutions, and leaders to move from committees to action.Timestamps00:01:00 – Inside the Data: 700 Million Weekly Users and What They're Doing with AIA look at the NBER study's key insights, showing a dramatic rise in personal, non-work AI use.00:04:30 – Top 3 Use Cases: Tutoring, Information Seeking, and Writing SupportA breakdown of the three most common AI usage themes and their significance in education.00:13:00 – The Gender Gap Closes and the Myth of Coding-Centric AIExploration of shifting demographics and the broader applications of AI beyond STEM.00:20:00 – Why Agency is the New Literacy in the Age of AIConnecting data trends with the need for self-directed learning and decision-making skills.00:32:00 – Brandeis University's Bold Move to Reinvent Higher Ed for an AI FutureA case study in institutional agility and what it means to act—not wait—in a rapidly evolving world.Resources MentionedHow Are People Using ChatGPTAnthropic Economic IndexBrandeis University: Reinventing the Liberal ArtsExplore More from Designing Schools

This episode of AI Daily Brief dives into two important reports on how people are really using AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude. OpenAI's massive study with Harvard and NBER reveals consumer patterns across 1.5 million conversations, while Anthropic's Economic Index tracks broader economic and automation trends. We break down key insights on global adoption, everyday use cases, work vs. personal usage, and what these findings mean for startups, enterprise AI, and the future of automation.Brought to you by:Google Gemini - Try NotebookLM today https://notebooklm.google.com/KPMG – Discover how AI is transforming possibility into reality. Tune into the new KPMG 'You Can with AI' podcast and unlock insights that will inform smarter decisions inside your enterprise. Listen now and start shaping your future with every episode. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.kpmg.us/AIpodcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Blitzy.com - Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blitzy.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to build enterprise software in days, not months Robots & Pencils - Cloud-native AI solutions that power results ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://robotsandpencils.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Vanta - Simplify compliance - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://vanta.com/nlw⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Agent Readiness Audit from Superintelligent - Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://besuper.ai/ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠to request your company's agent readiness score.The AI Daily Brief helps you understand the most important news and discussions in AI. Subscribe to the podcast version of The AI Daily Brief wherever you listen: https://pod.link/1680633614Interested in sponsoring the show? nlw@aidailybrief.ai

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_USIt wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot how to grow kind, a full-blown one even mainstream Economists and the NBER will be recognizing. The evidence continues to show we all went from forgot how to hire to remember how to fire. The Fed's fifty next week is all but set.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening'https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy.htmlBloomberg US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/us-payrolls-estimated-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-marchStanley Fischer The Great Recession: Moving Aheadhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140811a.htmChristopher Waller Let's Get On with Ithttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Ashley Jochim, principal at the Center on Reinventing Public Education and mom of four, joins Mike Petrilli and David Griffith on the Education Gadfly Show to continue our debate on private school choice and regulation. She also discusses how Democrats' defense of public schools often clashes with families' real experiences, and why clear, consumer-facing information is essential to making choice work. On the Research Minute, Adam Tyner highlights a new NBER study from Chicago showing that giving principals more autonomy can boost student achievement— though effects vary widely depending on leadership capacity.Recommended content Unfettered Choice Has Not Delivered on Promises to Milwaukee Families —Ashley Jochim, Education NextInnovation, regulation, and school choice, with Mike McShane | Episode 984 of The Education Gadfly Show Overregulated charter schools: Fact or fiction? —Michael J. PetrilliThe mixed blessing of new school measures—Chester E. Finn, Jr.When decentralization works: Leadership, local Needs, and student achievement—C. Kirabo Jackson, NBER (2025)Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for our show? Send them to thegadfly@fordhaminstitute.org

9月5日金曜日発表の非農業部門雇用者数は、米国経済がローリング・リセッションからローリング・リカバリーに移行しているとの見方を裏付ける内容でした。では、米国株は今後どうなるのか。弊社の最高投資責任者兼米国チーフ株式ストラテジスト、マイク・ウィルソンが見通しをお話しします。このエピソードを英語で聴く。トランスクリプト 「市場の風を読む」（Thoughts on the Market）へようこそ。このポッドキャストでは、最近の金融市場動向に関するモルガン・スタンレーの考察をお届けします。本日は、先日発表された雇用統計と、米国株にとってのその意味について、弊社の最高投資責任者兼米国チーフ株式ストラテジストのマイク・ウィルソンがお話しします。このエピソードは9月8日 にニューヨークにて収録されたものです。英語でお聞きになりたい方は、概要欄に記載しているURLをクリックしてください。大いに注目されていた9月5日金曜日発表の非農業部門雇用者数は、労働市場は弱いという弊社の見立てを裏付ける内容でした。しかし、弊社は何ヵ月も前からこのことを論じており、株式市場にとっては言わば古いニュースです。第1に、ひょっとしたら雇用統計は最も後ろ向きな、つまり過去に目を向けている経済指標かもしれません。第2に、この統計は大幅に改定されることが特に多く、リアルタイムでは最新のデータが当てにならない傾向があります。全米経済研究所(NBER)が景気後退の始まりを宣言するころには、ほとんどの人が景気後退期にあることを意識しなくなっているのが普通であるのはそのためです。また過去の実績からは、非農業部門雇用者数の改定がプロシクリカルであることがうかがえます。景気後退に向かっている局面では下方修正の幅が大きくなりがちで、景気回復が始まれば上方修正の幅が大きくなりがちだという意味です。今回もこのパターンに沿っているように見えます。実際、金曜日の改定は前月のそれより大幅に良い内容であり、労働市場が第2四半期に「底を打った」ことを示唆しています。このことは、私が何年も前からお話ししている、景気と市場に対する弊社の基本的な説を裏書きしてくれます。 具体的に言えば、米国では2022年に「ローリング・リセッション」が始まり、今年4月の「解放の日」に相互関税が発表されたことをもってようやく底を打ったと私は考えています。このローリング・リセッションの初期段階は、新型コロナによるハイテク製品や消費財の需要前倒しの反動が主導する形で進みましたが、やがて他のセクターもそれぞれ異なるタイミングで不況に突入していきました。従来型のリセッションの判定に用いられる指標で典型的な変化が観察されなかったのに、今になってそれらの改定値で変化がより明確になっているのは、それが主な理由です。新型コロナ後に移民の流入が歴史的な大幅増になったことと、今年になってその取り締まりが行われていることも、労働市場の多くの指標をさらにゆがめることになりました。弊社はここ数年、こうした話題を広く取り上げてきましたが、金曜日に発表された弱い雇用統計は、米国経済がローリング・リセッションから「ローリング・リカバリー」に移行しつつあるという弊社の説を裏付ける証拠だと言えます。つまり、景気は新たな循環に入りつつあり、4月に始まった新しい強気相場が今後どこまで続くかについてはFRBの利下げがカギを握ることになるでしょう。弊社の見解で何よりも重要なのは、過去3年間の景気は多くの企業や消費者にとって、GDPや雇用のような総合的な経済統計が示唆するものよりはるかに弱かったということです。景気の強さを測る際には、消費者や企業の景況感調査に加え、企業の利益成長とその広がり方に着目する方がよいと弊社ではみています。ひょっとしたら、景気の良し悪しを判断する最もシンプルな方法は、今の景気は幅広い層に繁栄をもたらしているのかと問うことかもしれません。この物差しに照らして言うなら、答えは「ノー」だと弊社では考えます。ここ3年間はほとんどの企業で利益がマイナス成長になっているからです。ただ、良い知らせがあります。過去2四半期では、この利益成長がようやくプラスに転じているのです。そして同時に、ここ数ヵ月間弊社が強調してきたように、企業の業績見通しのV字回復も広がりを見せています。このことも、ローリング・リセッションが最悪期を脱したこと、おそらく「谷」は4月だったことを裏付けていると思われます。株式市場はいつものようにこれを正確に把握し、底を打ったのです。さて、これから本物の利下げサイクルが始まる公算が大きく、この新たな強気相場が続くためにはそのような利下げが必要だと弊社ではみています。ただ、FRBは遅行指標である労働市場のデータの弱さよりもインフレの方をまだ重視している可能性があり、利下げは株式投資家の願望よりも緩やかなペースで進むことになるかもしれません。また、企業と財務省の両方が資金調達を増やすために流動性資金が少し干上がるかもしれない兆しもあることから、株価が軟調になりやすい季節に相場が一服したり、さらに進んで調整したりしても、私は驚かないでしょう。もしそうなったら、弊社なら押し目買いに入るでしょうし、FRBがさらにハト派的になることや財務省と連携することも見込んで、クオリティで劣る銘柄にも物色の幅を広げることすら検討するかもしれません。結論を申し上げれば、2022年に始まったローリング・リセッションの底打ちをもって、株式市場では新しい強気相場が始まりました。この相場はまだ初期段階にあり、株価の下落には押し目買いで臨むべきです。最後までお聴きいただきありがとうございました。今回も「市場の風を読む」Thoughts on the Market 、お楽しみいただけたでしょうか？もしよろしければ、この番組について、ご友人や同僚の皆さんにもシェアいただけますと幸いです。

The effects of divorce on children. Some References we mentioned Amato, P. R., & Keith, B. (1991). Parental divorce and the well-being of children. Psychological Bulletin, 110(1), 26–46. Auersperg, F., et al. (2019). Long-term effects of parental divorce on mental health. Journal of Psychiatric Research, 119, 107–115. Frimmel, W., et al. (2025). How does parental divorce affect children's long-term outcomes? NBER. Garriga, A., & Pennoni, F. (2020). The causal effects of parental divorce. Social Indicators Research. The Heritage Foundation. (2000). The effects of divorce on America. Wallerstein, J. S., & Lewis, J. M. (1998). The long-term impact of divorce. Family and Conciliation Courts Review, 36(3), 368–383. Wolchik, S. A., et al. (2000). Maternal parenting and children's adjustment. Journal of Family Psychology, 14(4), 671–687. FamilyMeans. (2023). Effects of divorce on children.

What are tariffs really used for? For economic protection? For political gain? For enforcing foreign policy? In this interview, I discuss the following with my guest scholar: ►Why James Madison foresaw tariffs as an inevitable source of conflict? ►In U.S. history, did Americans ever complain that tariffs are really a tax on the people? ►What was the first instance in which tariffs were used as a foreign policy tool? ►What is the Tariff of Abominations? ►How did tariffs backfire on Southern politicians? ►How are tariffs and secession movements related? ►Were tariffs part of Civil War's history? ►What powers did Congress grants to FDR over tariffs? ►What part of U.S. history does Pres. Trump point to as justification for his tariff policy? ►What was Pres. Reagan's tariff policy? ►How is tariff policy with the USSR different than our tariff policy toward China?

On this week's Education Gadfly Show podcast, Scott Marion, Executive Director of the Center for Assessment, joins Mike and David to discuss why states should maintain annual assessments—even if the Trump Administration waives some federal testing requirements. Then, on the Research Minute, Adam reviews a study comparing surveys and test scores as measures of school quality and predictors of long-term student success.Recommended content: The Case for State Testing, The National Center for the Improvement of Education Assessment, Inc., (March 2025).The Case for Statewide School Accountability Systems, The National Center for the Improvement of Education Assessment, Inc., (March 2025).Victoria McDougald, “The case for standardized testing,” Thomas B. Fordham Institute (August 1, 2024).Michael J. Petrilli, “The best colleges for political diversity,” Thomas B. Fordham Institute (April 3, 2025).Joshua Angrist, Peter Hull, Russell Legate-Yang, Parag A. Pathak and Christopher R. Walters, Putting School Surveys to the Test, NBER (2025)Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our podcast? Send them to Stephanie Distler at sdistler@fordhaminstitute.org.  

Welcome to the Mixtape with Scott! This week's guest is Nathan Nunn, professor in the Vancouver School of Economics at University of British Columbia. Nathan is a development economist and economic historian whose work on the development of the African continent has been viewed as pioneering, seminal even. Two of his major works focused on the African slave trade and its impact on trust (here in this AER) and the continent's longterm development (here). The body of work is so massive that I can only point you to his webpage and vita. He's currently an editor at Quarterly Journal of Economics, a member of NBER and a research fellow at BREAD. And here is his google scholar page. And for giggles, here are the people at NotebookLM explaining his vita!Here's that NotebookLM link for people looking on YouTube or podcast platforms like Apple Music or Spotify. url: https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/ac825f4e-3e35-4359-b154-bc82ef808a79/audioThanks again everyone and I hope you enjoy this great interview! Scott's Mixtape Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Scott's Mixtape Substack at causalinf.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's Education Gadfly Show podcast, Brian Kisida, Associate Professor at the Truman School of Government & Public Affairs at the University of Missouri, joins Mike and David to discuss his recent Education Next article, which reports on what high school students are hearing from their teachers about racism in America. Then, on the Research Minute, Amber shares a study about how test-optional policies at elite universities hurt high-achieving, disadvantaged students.Recommended content: Brian Kisida, Gary Ritter, Jennifer Gontram, J. Cameron Anglum, Heidi H. Erickson, Darnell Leatherwood, and Matthew H. Lee., “Bridging the Divide over Critical Race Theory in America's Classrooms,” Education Next (November 1, 2024).Frederick Hess, “It's a Crisis! It's Nonsense! How Political Are K–12 Classrooms?,” Education Next (Winter 2025).Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas O. Staiger & Michele Tine, How Test Optional Policies in College Admissions Disproportionately Harm High Achieving Applicants from Disadvantaged Backgrounds, NBER (2025) Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our podcast? Send them to Stephanie Distler at sdistler@fordhaminstitute.org.

On this week's Education Gadfly Show podcast, Colleen Hroncich, a policy analyst with the Cato Institute's Center for Educational Freedom, joins Mike and David to discuss why pro–school choice ballot measures failed in Kentucky, Nebraska, and Colorado—and what it means for the future. Then, on the Research Minute, Adam shares a study examining 100 years of data on elite private and public colleges, revealing persistent gaps in socioeconomic diversity despite changes in racial and geographic representation.Recommended content: Colleen Hroncich, Neal McCluskey, “Referendum Losses Are No Mandate against School Choice,” Real Clear Education (November 8, 2024).Juan Perez Jr., “Republicans' big idea for remaking public education hits voter resistance,” Politico (November 27, 2024).Michael McShane “Op-ed: Despite blows, school choice swept the ballot this election,” Chalkboard News (November 14, 2024).Ran Abramitzky, Jennifer K. Kowalski, Santiago Pérez & Joseph Price, The G.I. Bill, Standardized Testing, and Socioeconomic Origins of the U.S. Educational Elite Over a Century, NBER (2024) Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our podcast? Send them to Stephanie Distler at sdistler@fordhaminstitute.org.

On this week's Education Gadfly Show podcast, Marc Porter Magee, CEO and Founder of 50CAN, joins Mike and David to discuss “The State of Educational Opportunity in America," 50CAN's new report based on a survey of over 20,000 parents from all 50 states and D.C. Then, on the Research Minute, Adam shares a study examining how teacher strikes affect compensation, working conditions, and student achievement.Recommended content: The State of Educational Opportunity in America, 50CAN (2024). “Student enrollment is dropping. The charter sector should keep growing anyway.” —Michael J. PetrilliState of Educational Opportunity: Ohio Survey of Ohio Parents, Thomas B. Fordham Institute and 50CAN (2024).Melissa Arnold Lyon, Matthew A. Kraft, and Matthew P. Steinberg, The Causes and Consequences of U.S. Teacher Strikes, NBER (2024). Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our podcast? Send them to Stephanie Distler at sdistler@fordhaminstitute.org.

On this week's Education Gadfly Show podcast, David Deming, a professor of Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School, joins Mike and David to discuss his article in The Atlantic arguing that it's not enough for governments and the private sector to eliminate college-degree requirement for good-paying jobs. Then, on the Research Minute, Amber shares a study investigating the “fade-out effect” in early childhood education programs.Recommended content: “We need supply-side education policy” —David Deming“The vibes for career-tech programs are great. But they're too rare.” —Michael J. Petrilli“What Kamala Harris should do on education and training” —Bruno V. MannoJohn A. List and Haruka Uchida, Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? Toward an Understanding of Fade-out in Early Childhood Education Programs, NBER (2024)Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our podcast? Send them to Stephanie Distler at sdistler@fordhaminstitute.org.

Haman returns, this time to discuss a recent controversy over the libertarian case for drug legalization.Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest:The YouTube version of this interview.Haman's episode on Portland.Thornton on Prohibition, an NBER journal article, and Bob's book Lessons for the Young Economist.Help support the Bob Murphy Show.

On this week's Education Gadfly Show podcast, Michael Goldstein, co-founder of the Math Learning Lab in Boston, joins Mike and David to discuss the track record of high-dosage tutoring in mitigating pandemic learning loss. Then, on the Research Minute, Amber shares a study on the long-term effects of the METCO program, which aims to increase diversity and reduce racial isolation by busing students from Boston to surrounding suburbs.Recommended content: Mike Goldstein and Bowen Paulle, The narrow path to do it right: Lessons from vaccine making for high-dosage tutoring, Thomas B. Fordham Institute (March 2021)“Students aren't benefiting much from tutoring, one new study shows” —JillBarshayMatthew A. Kraft, Danielle Sanderson Edwards, and Marisa Cannata, The Scaling Dynamics and Causal Effects of a District-Operated Tutoring Program, Annenberg Institute at Brown University (August 2024)Elizabeth Setren, Busing to Opportunity? The Impacts of the METCO Voluntary School Desegregation Program on Urban Students of Color, NBER (2024) Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our podcast? Send them to Stephanie Distler at sdistler@fordhaminstitute.org.

In July 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin became the first humans to land on the moon. In May 2020, in response to Covid-19, the US Federal Government initiated Operation Warp Speed to accelerate the development and distribution of vaccines, cutting what would otherwise be a ten-year timeline to within 1 year. In 1989, the Montreal Protocol was established to phase out the production of substances responsible for ozone depletion. What's common among these programs? Arindam Goswamy and Shreya Ramakrishnan discuss the compelling nature of ambitious programs to solve big social challenges, what sets mission-oriented policy projects apart, and takeaways for long-term policy change. Read this NBER paper on Operation Warp Speed. Explore this article on mission-oriented innovation policies: challenges and opportunities. All Things Policy is a daily podcast on public policy brought to you by the Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru. Find out more on our research and other work here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://takshashila.org.in/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Check out our public policy courses here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://school.takshashila.org.in⁠

Peter Moustakerski is CEO of Family Office Exchange (FOX), the premier resource for families managing private enterprises and family wealth across generations. For over 30 years, FOX has been recognized as the industry's most exclusive, innovative, and influential community for peer networking and learning, and has provided independent insights, expert guidance, and practical solutions to complex problems related to family transitions and family wealth.​Peter has spent more than 25 years as a C-level strategist and executive across a variety of industries, including wealth management, capital markets, and technology. He is a former family office executive and FOX member, management consultant, and entrepreneur. He has served as a strategy, innovation, and growth leader for a number of private and public companies and founded two start-ups in New York City and China.​Prior to joining FOX, Peter served as Chief Operating Officer of the family office of the founder of Bridgewater Associates, where he worked closely with the principal family members to envision and oversee the redesign of the family office strategy and day-to-day operations to better serve the evolving needs of the family. Peter holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and a BS in Computer Science and Engineering from Zhejiang (Ger-Zian) University in China, and is proficient in Mandarin, Russian, and Bulgarian.​Before that, Peter was a management consultant at Booz Allen Hamilton, advising many of the world's top C-suite leaders, and a strategy executive at UBS, leading all growth and transformation initiatives for the bank's wealth management organization.​Most recently, Peter was Chief Strategy Officer of News America Marketing, a former News Corp. subsidiary, where he built and led the Corporate Strategy and M&A function and led the company's successful carve-out and sale to a private equity sponsor. In addition, for more than 20 years, Peter has been a contributing writer and researcher with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), and has led many qualitative and quantitative research projects, and written a number of influential white papers for the EIU, NBER, and other research institutions and media publications.​Two Quotes From This Episode"At the end of the day, if you think about time as your most valuable asset, the ultimate capital, the ultimate equalizer for all of us is time, and complexity is the enemy of time. It just eats up time and other resources."“At FOX, we consider it a core value and a major part of our mission to help our members—and the entire industry—see around corners, especially when significant change is afoot.”Resources Mentioned in This EpisodeBook - The Fourth Turning is Here by HoweBook - Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order by DalioBook - Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman About The International Leadership Association (ILA)The ILA was created in 1999 to bring together professionals interested in studying, practicing, and teaching leadership. Register for ILA's 26th Global Conference in Chicago, IL - November 7-10, 2024.Adult Development Pre-Conference SessionAbout  Scott J. AllenWebsiteWeekly Newsletter: The Leader's EdgeBlogMy Approach to HostingThe v

Stock Market Update (SMU) Let's discuss and demystify the recent volatility in the stock market, NVDA earnings, Jackson Hole highlights including rate cuts, and the dreaded "R" word (recession).

I recently attended a comedy show at the Lincoln Center's "Summer in the City," where Indian comedians humorously highlighted the complexities of healthcare and health insurance. In today's episode, I'm thrilled to interview Prof. Tal Gross, co-author of Better Health Economics. During my spring semester, I took a Health Economics course that I loved, and this book was a key part of our curriculum. Prof. Gross, a full professor at BU and a research associate at the NBER, specializes in health insurance. Join us for today's episode on the intricacies of the healthcare system!Better Health EconomicsSupport the Show.

Today's interviewee, Professor Chris Snyder, is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Institute for Progress (IFP). He teaches economics at Dartmouth College, where he specializes in industrial organization and microeconomic theory. He is also a research associate at the NBER, treasurer of the Industrial Organization Society, and a faculty director for the University of Chicago's Market Shaping Accelerator. Chris played a pivotal role in the advance market commitment, or “AMC,” for the pneumococcal vaccine, which saved close to a million lives. What you'll learn:How did the U.S. and Russia end up in the same funding coalition? Why didn't we design an AMC for malaria? How do you place a market value on future innovations? Why would cancer and Alzheimer's be poor candidates for an AMC?Subscribe at www.statecraft.pub to get one new interview in your inbox each week. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub

Photo Credit: Tyler Follon - Wingman VisualsIn this episode of the Moral Imagination Podcast, I speak with Professor William Easterly of New York University about his work in development economics, and the problems of technocracy and social engineering of the poor. Easterly worked at the World Bank from 1985-2001 and began to be troubled by a number of things, including how aid is given without much concern about how it is distributed and managed thus subsidizing bad governance and harming the poor. We discuss Peter Bauer's critique of how foreign aid politicizes development and delayed the development of business in Africa, and Bauer's paradox of aid: * The countries that need aid — aid will not be effective* The countries where aid will be effective — do not need aid But the key problem with the dominant model of development is not simply a lack of efficiency, but the failure to respect the rights and agency of poor people. Easterly explains that development projects often result in people being deprived of their property, political rights, and participation and consent in the very projects that are supposed to help them. He discussed the tendency to to trivialize problems in the developing world, and the lack of feedback and market tests in development policy. We discuss how the developing world can often become a a lab for experiments for technocrats and social engineers. We also talk about Hayek's Knowledge Problem, a response to Marianna Mazucatto idea of moonshots, and what I call “embedded'“ economics. We discuss a number of issues including * “The Debate that Never Happened” - Gunnar Myrdal vs. Friedrich Hayek on development economics* Social Engineering * Technocracy and the Hubris of the Technocrat * Spontaneous Order* Edmund Burke and Friedrich Hayek * Soviet 5-year central planning as model for economic development * Limited Horizons of Humanitarianism— a secular, hollowed out version of Christian love the focuses on material at the expense of personal agency. * Lack of Accountability * Material vs. Non-material Needs * Materialist visions of the human person * People have a right to consent to their own progress * Harry Potter novels vs. Mosquito Nets * Marianna Mazucatto's ideas of Moonshots * vs. accidental discovery* vs opportunity costs * vs failed social engineering projects * and the complexity of economics and markets embedded in deep historical, cultural, norms, institutions, and religious foundations. * How to think about foreign aid and public goods like healthcare, infrastructure, education* Aid for emergencies vs. aid as answer to chronic poverty* Institutions of Justice including clear title to land, access to justice in the courts, ability to participate in the formal economy, and free exchange. * The impact of globalization on manufacturing in the US* Trade-offs and economic volatility * The moral rules that are needed for progress to beneficial * Consent, Self-Determination, Moral Equality * Attempts to develop Native Americans, US intervention in Philippines etc. * Material progress is never enough to justify interventionBiography William Easterly is Professor of Economics at New York University and Co-director of the NYU Development Research Institute, which won the 2009 BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge in Development Cooperation Award. He is the author of three books: The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor (March 2014), The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good (2006), which won the FA Hayek Award from the Manhattan Institute, and The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics (2001).He has published more than 60 peer-reviewed academic articles, and has written columns and reviews for the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Review of Books, and Washington Post. He has served as Co-Editor of the Journal of Development Economics and as Director of the blog Aid Watch. He is a Research Associate of NBER, and senior fellow at the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD). Foreign Policy Magazine named him among the Top 100 Global Public Intellectuals in 2008 and 2009, and Thomson Reuters listed him as one of Highly Cited Researchers of 2014. He is also the 11th most famous native of Bowling Green, Ohio.ResourcesEssay: Friedrich Hayek: “The Use of Knowledge in Society”Related: Podcast with Obianuju Ekeocha on Ideological Colonialism and Resisting the Cultural Annexation of Africa Uganda Farmer Story in New York TimesPoverty, Inc. Film Recommended ReadingTyranny of Experts William Easterly The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little GoodBuy on Amazon, William Easterly The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics, Easterly, William R.Target Africa: Ideological Neocolonialism in the Twenty-First Centuryby Obianuju Ekeocha Seeing Like a State, James C. Scott Peter Bauer, Equality, The Third World, and Economic DelusionAngus Deaton The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality Get full access to The Moral Imagination - Michael Matheson Miller at themoralimagination.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the second half of my conversation with Anna Kelley. Last week, we talked about how she and her family achieved financial freedom. (If you missed it, be sure to go back and listen to that conversation.) This time, we will be diving into the current market, the economy, real estate, and what we're looking for in terms of opportunity as a recession becomes more likely. Check out the show notes for more information! P.S. Whenever you're ready, here are some other ways I can help fast track you to your Freedom goal (you're closer than you think) : 1. Schedule a Call with My Team: If you'd like to replace the earned income you need from your practice with investment income in as little as 2-3 years, and you have at least 1M in available capital (can include equity or practice sale), then schedule a call with my team. If it looks like there is a mutual fit, you'll have the opportunity to attend one of our upcoming member events as a guest. 2. Become a Full-Cycle Investor: There are many self-proclaimed genius investors today who think everything they touch turns to gold. But they're about to learn the hard way what others have gained through “expensive” experience. I'm offering a report on how to become a full-cycle investor, who knows how to preserve and grow capital in Up markets and Down markets. Will you be prepared when the inevitable recession hits? Get your free report here. 3. Get Your Free Retirement Scorecard: Benchmark your retirement and wealth-building against hundreds of other practice professionals, and get personalized feedback on your biggest opportunities and leverage points. Click here to take the 3 minute assessment and get your scorecard.

Ajay Singh Chaudhary talks about his new book, The Exhausted of the Earth: Politics in a Burning World. Matt Notowidigdo, co-author of a recent NBER paper, examines how recessions increase life expectancy.Behind the News, hosted by Doug Henwood, covers the worlds of economics and politics and their complex interactions, from the local to the global. Find the archive online: https://www.leftbusinessobserver.com/radio.html. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

My guest today is Scott Fulford, a senior economist at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau where he led the development of the Making Ends Meet Survey. He has represented the U.S. at the OECD, and he regularly speaks at the Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve banks, the OCC, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the FDIC, the NBER, and universities. The topic is his book The Pandemic Paradox: How the COVID Crisis Made Americans More Financially Secure. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Economic growth and decline during the pandemic Government intervention and financial support Inflation and its causes Potential economic bubble Counterfactuals in pandemic response Impact on stock market and employment The potential for a better, fairer and more productive economy Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!