The Transcript

In this episode, we contrast corporate optimism against a backdrop of enduring inflation, address the financial pressures facing low-income consumers and the distress signals from rising subprime delinquencies, and examine the unexpected challenges in the mass-market adoption of EVs.00:00:00 Introduction00:00:10 Prevailing Optimism00:01:50 Low-Income Consumer Strains00:03:54 EV Market Dynamics00:04:56 Automaker Bets and Brand Loyalt00:07:01 Hybrids Gaining Ground00:07:54 Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts, the surprising job market data,  a soft European economy, and tech giants' AI-driven performance00:00:00 Introduction00:00:15 Decoding the Fed's Signals00:03:18 Soft Signals from Europe's Economy00:04:21 Natural Gas Inventory Surprises00:05:06 Tech Earnings and AI00:07:58 Meta's Dividend Debut00:09:16 Chips and Games: Industry Trends00:10:51 Conclusion

In this episode, we explore the potential soft landing, consumer spending resilience, Tesla's AI ambitions in the EV market, Boeing's challenges, and the big week ahead in big tech earnings.

In this episode, we examine the state of the consumer and analyze macro takeaways from earnings calls ahead of the Fed meeting this week. 

In this episode, we discuss the key takeaways from the first 3 weeks of earnings season. The key trend is the softening trends in the economy, the state of the EV market and the stabilization in cloud. 

In this episode, we discuss the takeaways from Jackson Hole, reflections on the state of the consumer from retailers, and the blowout quarter that Nvidia just hard. 

In this episode we discuss signs of stability in the economy, reflections on the long-term implications of higher rates, and the impact of Taylor Swift on the economy. 

In this episode, we discuss key gleanings from the earnings season including takeaways on bank earnings, inflation, and AI.

This week, we discuss the slight softening trends from the big retailers that reported last week. We also discuss Tesla and AI and the Fed talk about more potential rate hikes. Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   Softening Trends00:01:50   Inflation Still High00:04:00   Tesla and AI00:07:33   The State of the Supply Chains00:08:30   Nuggets of Wisdom00:09:12   Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss the key points from the Fed press conference last week, the incoming data on the state of the economy, and the banking crisis.Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   Pausing Soon?00:01:08   Hot or Cold? 00:03:31   Troubled Regional Banks00:05:57   What's Different This Time? 00:07:42   CRE Exposure00:10:12   ChatGPT Crushing Business Models00:11:22   The Oracle of Omaha00:12:32   Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss the recent developments in the banking industry with the demise of First Republic and some key takeaways from big tech earnings calls. Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:08   Softening Trends00:01:23   The Impact of the End of First Republic00:04:46   What will the Fed Do?00:06:55   Price-Driven Growth00:08:38   TakeAways from Tech Earnings00:11:15   Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss the key takeaways from US bank's Q1 2023 earnings and more. Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   Slowly Declining00:02:18   What Will the Fed Do? 00:03:18   Banks are Stable For Now 00:04:42   Credit Metrics Look Good00:06:23   On Semis and Pool Demand00:08:20   Freight Recession00:09:10   Tesla Slashing Prices00:11:06   Big Week Ahead

In this episode marking the start to the new earnings season, we discuss how banks and the Fed are responding to the recent baking crisis,  the state of the consumer Buffett's take on AIShow Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   Banking Stress Calms Down00:01:56   How Will the Fed React? 00:05:23   Is The Banking Crisis Over? 00:07:03   The Car Market00:08:40   Buffett and AI00:10:57   Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss our key takeaways from the Q4 2022 earnings calls.Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   The Banking Crisis00:02:55   Consumers Are Still Spending00:04:22   The Era of AI00:08:40   Earnings Season Begins Soon00:10:11   Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss the distress in financial markets that started in banking, how the Fed is responding to it, and what C-suite execs are saying about it. Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:05 Distress in the Markets00:01:45 Too Soon To Tell00:02:57 The Fed Responds00:03:33 It's Quarter End This Week00:05:24 It's the Liquidity Stupid00:07:05 The Astonishing Speed of AI Evolution00:09:12 Nuggets of Wisdom00:10:42 Conclusion

In this episode, we examine the developments in the banking world in the last week or so and the implications these have on financial markets and on the Fed rate hike. 

In this episode, we analyze the happenings in the banking world last week that started with the fall of the Silicon Valley Bank. Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   The Rapid Fall of SVB00:02:14   The 3 Banks That Failed00:05:12   Contagion Effects?00:09:15   Goliath is Winning00:12:26   Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss last week's statements by Fed governors, the still-strong consumer spending and the hype around AI. 00:00:00   Introduction00:00:08   Waiting for Data00:01:38   Consumer Spending Still Strong00:02:10   Slowing Retail Comps00:03:38   The State of the Energy and Materials Markets00:05:26   Back to 1990s?00:10:39   Conclusion

In this episode we discuss the pesky inflation, the state of retail and takeaways from the Berkshire 2022 shareholder letterShow Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   Pesky inflation00:00:58   Pressured but Spending00:02:05   Softening Labour Markets? 00:03:39   Takeaways from Retailers00:05:51   Week ahead00:09:59   Conclusion

In this episode, we examine the state of the consumer, the impact of UID2 on advertising, and how things are going with ChatGPT.Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:13   Consumer is Still Partying00:01:31   Service Inflation Still Sticky00:02:45   No Hurricane Yet00:03:22   UID 2.000:05:44   ChatGPT Attracting Criticism00:08:15   Back to Office at Amazon00:09:27   Conclusion

In this episode, we dissect the gleanings from the latest post-FOMC press conference and the takeaways from tech earnings. 

In this episode, we discuss the resiliency of consumer spending, the sticky services inflation,  and the era of AI. 

In this episode, we discuss how companies are preparing for a mild recession, the developing decade of AI and the status of the reopening of China. Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   A Mild Recession Ahead00:02:12   Will the Fed Slow Down? 00:04:36   Pace of Decline in VC Investments Slows Down 00:05:32   The Decade of AI00:09:38   Nearshoring and the Reopening of China00:10:58   Conclusion

In our first episode of the earnings season, we discuss our key takeaways from the big banks that reported including takes on credit quality, the possibility of a hurricane coming and the state of the consumer. Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   Big Banks Report00:01:01   5% is the Place to Be00:01:56   Consumer Dipping into Savings and Credit00:03:05   No hurricane00:04:04   Dollar Down00:05:41   Search for Yield00:06:59   The State of Semis and Auto00:08:50   Conclusion

In the first episode of the new year, we discuss what has changed since the holidays and we preview the Q4 2022 earnings season. Show Notes00:00:00  Introduction00:00:08  A Cooling Down00:01:55  Inflation Cooling in Europe00:03:03  Inflation in Services00:05:52  A Hunkering for Fries00:06:49  The AI revolution00:09:19  Weakening Data Center Demand00:11:15  Earnings Season Preview00:12:40  Conclusion

In this episode, we review the year 2022 through quotes from earnings calls and also track the incredible growth we have had at The Transcript. Show Notes00:00:00   Introduction00:00:07   A Year of Worries00:01:51   The Fed Behind the Curve00:04:51   Inflation Peaked 00:06:41   The End of an Era00:08:22   Looking into 202300:10:04   Incredible Growth at The Transcript

In this episode, we discuss the signs of slow down in spending, how companies are prepping for a hurricane and the impact ChatGPT is having.Show Notes00:00:00  Introduction00:00:08  There is a slowdown00:02:28  Companies Prepping for a Hurricane00:04:26  The 2% Trend00:06:11  IT Budgets under Pressure00:08:04  The ChatGPT Moment00:11:07  Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss the recent comments from the Fed on slowing down rate increases, the surprising strength in the industrial segments, and the impact of the Zero-covid policy in China. Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:12 Slowing Down The Pace00:01:12 Entrenched Inflation Psychology?00:05:29 Strength in Industrial Customers00:07:32 China's Zero Covid policy00:09:46 Conclusion

In this episode, we host Sean Stannard-Stockton who is the president and chief investment officer of Ensemble Capital Management and is a regular reader of our newsletter.  We discuss his takeaways from the latest Q3 22 earnings from companies in their portfolio including Mastercard, Starbucks, Ferrari, Home Depot, and Netflix. 

In this episode, we discuss the signals from freight companies on weakening demand, the FTX saga, and the Meta U-TurnShow Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:07 Inflation Going Down?00:03:09 The Crypto Crisis00:07:54 The Meta U-Turn00:09:36 Semis and the Energy Transition00:10:06 Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss the musings from the Fed meeting last week, the challenged ad markets, and the state of energy markets in EuropeShow Notes00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 The Fed is Staying the Course00:03:54 Europe is Weak 00:05:24 Mexico a Beneficiary of Reshoring 00:07:05 Weak Ad Spend 00:08:52 A Warm Welcome to the New Subscribers 

In this episode, we are joined by Brad Freeman, author of the newsletter Stock Market Nerd, to discuss key takeaways from tech earnings.Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:43 Resilient consumer starting to get jittery00:03:00 Some Weakness in Spending? 00:04:09 Meta Worries00:09:19 Weaknesses in Cloud emerging as growth moderates00:13:45 Weaknesses in Retail

In this special episode (Episode 80), we host former hedge fund manager Marc Rubinstein to discuss the key takeaways from Banks' Q3 22 earnings calls. Marc is the author of Net Interest and writes for Bloomberg Opinion. He covers financial sector themes. We are also joined by Brian Gilmartin, CFA from Trinity Asset Management who writes the blog Fundamentalis. 

In this episode, we discuss the deteriorating corporate confidence, the impact of the strong dollar on US earnings, and explore whether air travel has experienced a permanent structural change.  We also preview tech earnings that flood in this week. Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:08 Declining Corporate Confidence00:02:03 The Strong Dollar00:04:16 Declining Ad Spend00:05:06 Tech Earnings Week00:06:52 The Fed Feeling the Pressure?00:08:27 Opportunities in Europe00:10:07 Permanent Structural Change in Travel?

In this special episode, we are joined by Jesse Felder to discuss the macro takeaways from our recent newsletters including the Fed's fight with inflation, the heightened recession risks, the distress in financial markets, and the early innings of a commodity super-cycle. Show Notes[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:15] The Fed's Hard Time with Inflation[00:02:46] Inflation Is a Choice[00:06:54] Recession Risks[00:10:36] When will Real Rates be Positive? [00:12:47] Declining Consumer Deposits[00:15:50] The Energy Crisis & The Commodity Super Cycle[00:22:54] Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss the signs that consumer spending may be softening, the hope that inflation may start to slow soon, and the signs of heavy stress in the financial system. We also preview the Q3 earnings season as banks kick off the season this Friday. 

In this episode, we dissect the key takeaways from Jerome Powell's press conference last week, tackle the prevailing inflationary psychology, and check out a few developments in Electric Vehicles vs ICEs. 

In this episode, we discuss the state of the consumer and consumer spending, the decline in FedEx volumes and what it means for the recession outlook, and why the big 3 in cloud will be hard to compete with.Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:12 Slowdown or Shifting Demand?00:02:13 The State of the Consumer00:05:34 Recession Watch00:06:48 Energy Prices in Europe00:08:39 Capital Intensity as a Moat00:11:04 Frank Slootman, the straight Shooter

In this episode, we discuss the focus of the Fed on fighting inflation until the job is done, the trends in e-commerce and how companies are trying to find the optimal WFH/WFO mix.Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:08 Until the Job is done00:02:36 If we are in a recession, consumers don't know it00:03:04 Post-Pandemic Blues00:07:57 Worried about Tiktok00:10:28 What's New at The Transcript

Welcome to Episode 73 of The Transcript Podcast where we discuss the key themes and takeaways from the Q2 2022 earnings calls. This is a special episode of a recording of a Twitter Spaces conversation we held on Wednesday, 31st August 2022 with our guests Sam Ro of Tker.co and Alex Morris of The Science of HittingShow Notes00:00:00: Introduction00:05:21: The Fed and Inflation00:11:15: Trading Down of High-income Consumers00:15:44: Retailers and Their Excess Inventory00:20:31: Takeaways from Tech Earnings00:23:00: Trends in CAPEX00:29:56: The State of Streaming00:34:58: EPS Trends00:40:48: Closing thoughts

In this episode, we discuss takeaways from Jackson Hole, the shifting spending patterns of high-income consumers, and the post-pandemic blues of some covid winners. Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:07 No Resting Until the Job is Done00:02:44 Emerging Markets Feeling the Heat00:03:29 Trading Down from High Income Consumers00:06:30 Post-Pandemic Blues00:09:14 Strong Year for Farmers00:10:12 Takeaways from Sam Walton's Made in America00:11:19 Invitation to Twitter Spaces Tomorrow

In this episode, we discuss key takeaways from the retailers' Q2 results, the implications of falling used car prices and how streaming companies are eyeing a piece of the live sports market. Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:01:30 A lot of conficting data00:03:03 Retailers working through excess inventory00:03:52 Consumer demand weak in certain markets and used car prices declining00:05:25 Streaming companies venturing into live sports00:08:10 Conclusion

In this special episode, we host tech/semiconductors analyst Eric Jhonsa to discuss key takeaways from earnings for the semiconductor industry. Eric writes columns for Real Money and live-blog earnings at The Street and was previously at Seeking Alpha focusing on tech news coverage, and a writer for The Motley Fool.Show Notes00:00:00: Introduction00:01:32: Mapping the industry00:03:33: Semiconductors industry cycles00:07:30: Key takeaways from this earnings season00:11:21: What to look out for in semis earnings report00:15:33: Semis and Geopolitical risks00:17:21: The Intel turnaround strategy and Outlook00:20:35: Recommended resources and Conclusion

In this week's episode, we discuss key takeaways from the Fed press conference, how companies are preparing for a recession and the big tech earnings.Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:15 What is a Recession?00:02:40 Debt markets are reeling00:04:29 COVID-era trends are reversing00:05:57 Some Early Recession Indicators00:07:22 Meta: From Social to Interest Graphs00:11:17 Conclusion

In this week's episode, we cover that CEOs not seeing a downturn as imminent from their data, the challenging ad environment for Snapchat, earnings not as bad as expected for Netflix, and look at the week ahead in tech earnings. 

In the special episode, we host former hedge fund manager Marc Rubinstein to discuss the key takeaways from Banks' Q2 22 earnings calls. Marc is the author of Net Interest and writes for Bloomberg Opinion. He covers financial sector themes. Show Notes: 00:00:00 Introduction 00:01:30 What Happens During Earnings Season? 00:04:25 The US Banking Industry00:07:16 Key Takeaways from Banks this Earnings Season00:16:22 Rising Rates and The Banking Industry00:18:44 Banking Sector Outlook for Q3 22 00:21:13 How to Analyze Banks00: 26:32 Fun Takes: Mike Mayo Vs Jamie Dimon00:30:12 Conclusion

Summary: This week's episode is all about key takeaways from banks' Q2 earnings, the state of the semiconductor industry, and Elon Musk vs Twitter

In this episode, we are joined by special guest Sam Ro to discuss key takeaways from  our newsletter this week and to preview Q2 earnings season that starts this week, 

In this episode, we discuss the fed call, whether demand is really softening and Facebook taking on Tiktok.Show Notes00:00:00 Introduction00:00:15 Demand Softening? 00:02:27 The Fed Call00:04:30 Brakes on the Housing Market00:06:20 A Lot of Talk about Oil00:08:11 Facebook Takes on Tiktok00:12:37 Conclusion

In this episode, we discuss takeaways from the Fed press conference last week, the slight uptick in delinquency rates, and the emerging opportunities in restructurings. 

In this episode, we cover the strong inflation numbers, the fear that the strong consumer balance sheets might not hold for long, and the impact of declining valuations on employee motivations and retention.