Podcasts about subprime

Shoot us a Text.Episode #1244: Today we're talking about Tesla's FSD flip to subscription-only, the continued softening of auto credit conditions, and a loyalty report that says your customers are expecting way more. Show Notes with links: The Dealertrack Credit Availability Index closed out December at 99.6—its highest reading of 2025 and the strongest level since October 2022. It marks a continued return to pre-pandemic credit conditions, capping off a yearlong trend of easing lending standards.Approval rates rose to 73.7%, up 90 basis points from November and 80 bps from December 2024.Average contract rates dropped from 10.5% to 10.3%, while yield spreads also narrowed—making pricing more attractive for buyers.Subprime lending edged down from 14.3% to 14.1% month-over-month, though still up from 11.8% a year ago.Loans over 72 months grew in share, as consumers stretch payments to keep monthly costs manageable.Captive lenders led the loosening, but banks, credit unions, and finance companies all showed increased flexibility.Starting February 14, Tesla will stop offering its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system as a one-time purchase, moving exclusively to a monthly subscription model, according to CEO Elon Musk.FSD, which still requires active driver supervision, currently costs $8,000 or $99/month.Tesla hasn't said how many users pay for FSD, but Musk once admitted he was "kind of glad" not many bought the lifetime option.The shift may be tied to Musk's compensation package, which includes hitting 10 million active FSD subscriptions.California regulators are still considering suspending Tesla's sales license for 30 days over alleged misleading marketing of FSD capabilities.Tesla has not disclosed how many of its customers have bought or are paying monthly subscriptions for FSD.In its 28th annual Customer Loyalty Engagement Index, Brand Keys found that consumer expectations jumped a record-breaking 32% year-over-year — a shift that's shaking up brand rankings across industries and putting serious pressure on retailers to evolve.Hyundai once again ranked highest among automotive brands for meeting modern consumer expectations — its 17th year holding that title.Nearly 40% of product and service categories saw new leaders emerge, signaling a wave of disruption driven by more demanding buyers.Loyalty continues to deliver ROI: a 5% improvement can boost lifetime customer profits by up to 88%, while a 2% lift can cut marketing costs by nearly 30%.Amazon, Whole Foods, Shell, Ben & Jerry's, and Dollar General were also among the top performers in their categories.“The bottom line: loyalty moves markets.” – Robert Passikoff, President of Brand KeysJoin Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/

One on One Video Call W/George https://tidycal.com/georgepmonty/60-minute-meetingSupport the show:https://www.paypal.me/Truelifepodcast?locale.x=en_USIn this powerful episode of the True Life Podcast, host George Monty delivers a hard-hitting “daily transmission” exposing how corporations and systems deliberately manufacture scarcity to drive profits, control populations, and prevent true abundance from reaching everyday people. Drawing on real-world examples from food, housing, medicine, and more, George reveals the patterns of consolidation, surplus destruction, and artificial shortages that keep society desperate and divided. He calls for recognition, documentation, and rebellion against this “scarcity weapon,” urging listeners to investigate local resources and demand the withheld plenty. This episode is a wake-up call to see beyond the narratives of inflation and supply chain issues to the engineered theft of abundance.Host: George MontyPodcast: True Life PodcastDuration: Approximately 10-15 minutes (based on transcript length)Release Date: Estimated based on content references (late 2025)Listen Here: Explore more episodes and connect with George Monty on the TrueLife platform. Key Timestamps & HighlightsGeorge's monologue flows as a continuous narrative, but we've broken it down into thematic sections with approximate timestamps for easy navigation:•  00:00 - 01:00: The Illusion of Struggle George opens by challenging the narrative that you're failing—it's engineered starvation in abundance. He prompts listeners to check their finances and see how earnings vanish despite higher pay, labeling it “2025's manufactured scarcity” designed for control and extraction.•  01:00 - 02:30: From Ancient Famines to Modern Engineering Contrasting natural famines with today's deliberate hunger, George highlights U.S. food production capacity (enough for 10 billion people) versus 34 million facing food insecurity amid record corporate profits.   He exposes the “machine that weaponizes emptiness.” •  02:30 - 04:00: Food Shortages Exposed•  2024 egg shortage: Not avian flu, but corporate consolidation by Cal-Maine Foods (20% market control), leading to tripled prices and $535 million in profits. •  2022-2024 baby formula crisis: Abbott's monopoly (43% market) caused shutdowns, boosting stock 34% while parents turned to black markets. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/doj-egg-prices-rise-cal-maine-profits•  04:00 - 05:00: Housing and Tech Hoarding•  Housing crisis: 16 million vacant homes in the U.S. versus over 600,000 homeless, as empty properties prove more profitable. •  2025 semiconductor shortage: TSMC's alleged deliberate restrictions via leaked emails to maintain pricing, with chips stockpiled while car prices soar.  (Note: Related to trade secret leaks; broader shortage context available.)https://unitedwaynca.org/blog/vacant-homes-vs-homelessness-by-city/•  05:00 - 06:30: Surplus Destruction and Corporate Mandates George uncovers patterns of destroying goods under USDA/EPA/FDA protocols lobbied by corporations.  He cites the 2024 NASS report (Appendix G, p. 847) on 2.3 billion pounds of produce destroyed to avoid “market destabilization.”  Kroger's 2019 leaked memo advocates “optimal scarcity ratios” for urgency buying. https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2023/09/20/usda-expands-efforts-prevent-and-reduce-food-loss-and-wastehttps://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/2024/index.phphttps://www.nationofchange.org/2024/09/03/corporate-greed-exposed-kroger-admits-to-price-gouging-on-milk-and-eggs-amid-antitrust-trial/•  06:30 - 08:00: The Scarcity Playbook Step-by-step breakdown: Consolidate supply, engineer shortages (restrict, destroy surplus), profit from desperation. Blame shifts to weather or labor, not architects.•  08:00 - 10:00: Historical and Ongoing Examples•  2008 housing crisis: Banks held 3.5 million foreclosures as “shadow inventory” to keep prices high. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis•  2020 toilet paper: Procter & Gamble and Georgia-Pacific (55% control) restricted distribution for 300% price surges at 64% capacity. https://www.resourcewise.com/market-watch-blog/are-we-really-running-out-of-toilet-paper-in-the-covid-crisis•  2021 lumber: Weyerhaeuser and West Fraser (40% control) quadrupled prices with underused mills. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/lumber-prices-hit-record-highs-soaring-past-year-2021-4-1030299977•  2023 prescription drugs: Wholesalers like McKesson, Cardinal, and AmerisourceBergen (95% control) restrict insulin ($2 production cost) amid shortages. https://www.mmm-online.com/home/channel/drug-shortages-in-america/•  2025 water: Nestlé, Coca-Cola, Pepsi (75% bottled water) amid contaminated public supplies. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/bottled-water-market•  10:00 - 11:30: Broader Patterns of Waste Amazon destroys 2 million unsold products yearly for scarcity pricing.  Pharma discards effective expired meds.  Energy firms flare gas for 10 million homes.  McKinsey's 2023 report recommends 15-20% below-demand inventory for margins.  Supply chain “disruptions” post-2020? Traffic normalized by Q3 2021, but prices stayed high via throttling. https://www.ethicalconsumer.org/ethical-campaigns-boycotts/amazons-burning-approach-unsold-returned-productshttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10834166/

Patriot games are coming. Larry Ellison in the spotlight. Hi Ho Silver and away! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - ELON gets his $$$ - Kids account challenge - Patriot games are coming... Markets - Not much headwinds - EOY approaching - Analysts predicting SP500 for 2026 - 7,500 (12% upside) - More Oracle back and forth - Gold and Silver Elon - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion late Friday after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth $139 billion that were voided last year - He also recently received a $1T pay plan approval - Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen Huang combined - His fortune exceeds the GDP of nations like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. - He is richer than every country in Africa by GDP - He is projected by some reports to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027 When did Larry Ellison and Oracle become newsworthy? - Every day in the news.... - Larry Ellison NOW Personally Guarantees Paramount Bid for Warner Bros. - The announcement of Mr. Ellison's personal guarantee is meant to address concerns that the Warner Bros. Discovery's board had expressed about Paramount's original offer. - Helping out sonny-boy? More Oracle - Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won't back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI. (Michigan) - Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years. - Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks. EVEN MORE! - Multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that ByteDance has reached an agreement with Oracle ORCL, Silver Lake, and Abu-Dhabi-based MGX to set up a joint venture for TikTok's US operations. Oracle will hold a 15.0% stake in the new entity, while ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake. - The important thing her is that TikTok stays as a major tenant of OCI as ORCL needs this cash flow... - Of all of the items, this may be why ORCL stock has bounced te last few days. Congressional Ban - A vote on legislation banning members from owning or trading stocks could get a vote in the new year, according to House leadership and Republican members. - President Donald Trump has said he supports a congressional ban but has pushed back on versions that include the executive branch. - Basically this bill would prohibit the ownership of individual stocks by congress Over to Japan - Bank of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB yield past 2% - Yen still VERY weak - trading at 157/USD - (problematic) - The BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity. - The yen weakened 0.25% against the USD after the decision - therefore still dovish and stimulative Economic Numbers - Estimates, partial numbers and best guesses. OH, 2-month averaging as well - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual headline inflation rate and core CPI rate for last month were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, well below expectations. - Due to government shutdown, BLS to make certain methodological assumptions about the prior month's inflation levels. - Those assumptions in the methodology were not clear to economists and were not fully explained in the release. - Here is a big issue: The price changes in October for the OER (owners equivalent rent) appear to have been “set to zero.”  Sports Prediction Markets - Sports is fueling the growth and is forecasted to make up 44% of volume as prediction markets mature. - According to one expert: the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place - Sportsbooks are getting a bit nervous.... First Dell, then... - Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and his wife, Barbara, committed to seed Trump accounts for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. - Following the Dells' pledge, the funds will be aimed at kids who live in a Connecticut ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. - The Dalio grant will fund $250 per child for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. This applies to children who live in a ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. About 87% of Connecticut ZIP codes meet that criteria, according to a CNBC analysis of Census Bureau data. - “Ray has joined what we are calling the 50-state challenge,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference on Wednesday. - A growing number of companies have announced they would match contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, including BNY and BlackRock. Patriot Games (Hunger Games?) - Trump announced: The Washington Monument will be illuminated with festive lights, a triumphal arc will be constructed and the “Patriot Games” will commence. The games are an “unprecedented four-day athletic event featuring the greatest high school athletes: one young man and one young woman from each state and territory. - Uhhhhhh "And so it was decreed that, each year, the various districts of Panem would offer up, in tribute, one young man and woman to fight to the death in a pageant of honor, courage and sacrifice. (Hunger Games 2012) - What next - PURGE NIGHT? Fed Pick - Now it seems as if it is a 4 person race... - President Trump says "Nowadays, when there is good news, the market goes down because everybody thinks that interest rates will be immediately lifted"; says "I want my new Fed Chairman to lower interest rates if the market is doing well"; says "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" San Fran Blackout - Alphabet-owned Waymo resumed its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area Sunday evening after pausing it amid widespread blackouts that had affected their vehicles' behavior. - Waymo said it worked with city officials throughout the blackout and had “proactively” initiated a temporary suspension of its service. - Interesting point there - what happens when grid disruptions for internet with self-driving Angry Shareholders (For a minute) - Tricolor CEO Daniel Chu directed a deputy to send him $6.25 million in bonuses in August, weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy, U.S. prosecutors alleged. - Subprime autofirm that had alleged fraud - This happens all the time - Big issue to keep alert to is the news about "Subprime" WEED - Trump's executive order shifts cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, easing research, banking and tax restrictions and marking the biggest federal cannabis policy change in decades. - Shares of cannabis conglomerates were down following the announcement, likely from worries of new competition from international companies. - NOT legalization - NOT for recreational use... - Banking, Institutional capital ..... OpenAi - Beggars cup continues - OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer's effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp. - The deal under discussion could value OpenAI north of $500 billion and see it adopt Amazon's Trainium chip, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking to remain anonymous to describe private negotiations. - Talks, however, are at a preliminary stage and terms could change, the person added. High Ho Silver and Away! - Silver up 135% YTD - Gold up 70% - Best year since strongest annual performance since 1979 for Gold - 1970's was inflation, USD weakening, Energy crisis. - What is similar/different now? (Big difference is buying up (China, Poland, Turkey, India) Light menu - Darden Restaurants will roll out a new lighter portion entrées menu at all Olive Garden locations in January, the company announced during its quarterly earnings call last Thursday. - Citing affordability: "Olive Garden has seen a double-digit increase in affordability perceptions from guests who order from the lighter portions menu and an increase in frequency among these guests, which should help build traffic over time," Cardenas said. - Sooooo 0 due to high costs, Americans are cutting back on food? - If it were for weight loss, no need for Oliver garden to cut back on portions as most inedible anyway... Copper - Copper prices topped $12,000 a ton for the first time, extending the metal's recent bull run as mine outages add to concerns about supply. - The threat of US import tariffs on the metal has also been an important factor pushing up prices this year, with copper piling up in American warehouses. - Industry analysts have said that much of the richest and most easily accessible mining resources are now exhausted, and experts are warning that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit. Jim Beam - Bourbon maker Jim Beam is halting production at one of its distilleries in Kentucky for at least a year as the whiskey industry navigates tariffs from the Trump administration and slumping demand for a product that needs years of aging before it is ready. - Jim Beam said the decision to pause bourbon making at its Clermont location in 2026 will give the company time to invest in improvements at the distillery. The bottling and warehouse at the site will remain open, along with the James B. Beam Distilling Co. visitors center and restaurant. - The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup's nearly 90-year trend. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Fredrik chats to Dylan Beattie about Rockstar, esoteric programming languages (Perl in latin, anyone?), and what might happen after the AI bubble. AI will ruin jokes, they can’t do things just right. But some things hiding under the label are actually useful as well. Have we been in any similarly strange bubbles before, and what might be left that’s useful after it? Also evolution, revolution, and strange Scrabble facts. Recorded during Øredev 2025. The episode is sponsored by Ellipsis - let us edit your podcast and make it sound just as good as Kodsnack! With more than ten years and 1200 episodes of experience, Ellipsis gets your podcast edited, chapterized, and described with all related links in a prompt and professional manner. Thank you Cloudnet for sponsoring our VPS! Comments, questions or tips? We a re @kodsnack, @tobiashieta, @oferlund and @bjoreman on Twitter, have a page on Facebook and can be emailed at info@kodsnack.se if you want to write longer. We read everything we receive. If you enjoy Kodsnack we would love a review in iTunes! You can also support the podcast by buying us a coffee (or two!) through Ko-fi. Links Dylan Dylan also has a podcast - Tech, bugs & rock’n’roll Dylan’s presentation at Øredev 2025: Rockstar 2.0: building an esoteric language interpreter in .NET Rockstar Formal grammar Esoteric programming languages Damian Conway Perl Perl in Latin - the paper and the module Latin Inflectional grammar Domain-specific languages Lilypond - Scheme dialect for sheet music Context-free grammar Engraving - the art of creating sheet music codewithrockstar.com Support us on Ko-fi! Scrabble Metal umlaut Piet - the language which should have been called Mondrian Piet Mondrian Mondrian - the undeserving tool Turing completeness The Buster Keaton house scene The dot-com bubble The subprime mortgage crisis Enron Douglas Adams Three mile island Windows Vista Tim Berners-Lee Solid - Tim’s project of holding your data locally Ellipsis - sponsor of the week: we edit Kodsnack, and we can edit your podcast too! The emperor’s new mind Quantum computing Hadamard gate The linebreakers - Dylan’s band of conference speakers ASML Titles Always good fun that one The version of the story that I tell in the talk Enough clichés Resident mad scientist of the Perl community Felis commidet piscem Always the cat that is eating Lexical flexibility Fundamentally, programming is programming A big win for everyone Linguistic conventions and extended alphabets That’s a different letter Regional assumptions German ortography A piece of impressionist art Hang it on the wall Something hidden in something else Physical comedy at its greatest Money people believe exists The amount of pretend money It has to come from reality Fortunately, I do not have a trillion dollars Quietly siphoned off Emotionally flat What can I steal from? A little LLM that works for you A spectacular collapse A billion lines of crap Pruning the decision tree Fix the next milestone in the public consciousness Five years of excitement, five years of disappointment Overdue for a little disappointment Reliant on Dutch technology

George Couperthwait is one of those guys that everyone in skiing knows, likes, and respects. He's a visionary, who's ski industry life started in a van: going shop to shop, demo to demo, race to race...and he worked his way all the way up to the top of skiing  With over 30 years working with brands like Rossignol and Stockli, George has taken his passion for sport and his love of product and weaved that into a world of building relationships and brands.  It's an interesting peek behind the curtain with the brains behind the XXX and so much more. George Couperthwait Show Notes: 4:00: Subprime products, growing up in NY, ski racing, coaching, relationship building, Nordica, tech rep life, and the 4S Kevlar 21:00: Ski Idaho: With 19 mountains, a ton of snow and no lift lines, why wouldn't you Visit Idaho Stanley:  The brand that invented the category! Only the best for Powell Movement listeners.  Check out Stanley1913.com   Best Day Brewing:  All of the flavor of your favorite IPA or Kolsch, without the alcohol, the calories or sugar. 24:00: Alberto Tomba, Rossignol, working by Facsimile with France, Viper X, the C.U.T. series, a changing the industry with Freeride, Petersen and Pehota,      40:30: Elan Skis:  Over 75 years of innovation that makes you better. Outdoor Research: Click here for 25% off Outdoor Research products (not valid on sale items or pro products) Therm-ic Heated Socks: The branded that invented Heated Socks 43:00: Tanner Hall, asking a lot out of athletes, travel, the end of Rossignol, Stockli,    62:00: Inappropriate Questions  

America is facing a subprime auto meltdown that rivals 2008. Pat breaks down rising delinquencies, soaring car prices, negative equity traps, and what low-income buyers are facing. Learn how to protect yourself with credit, smart rules, and real solutions.

- Subprime Defaults Hit All-Time High - Solid-State Batteries Getting Overhyped - F1 Team Values on the Rise - Toyota Starts Production at New Battery Plant - VW Could Use Rivian Architecture for ICEs - Apollo Go Robotaxi on Profit Path - Waymo Expanding Onto Freeways - China Considers Vehicle Acceleration Limit

- Subprime Defaults Hit All-Time High - Solid-State Batteries Getting Overhyped - F1 Team Values on the Rise - Toyota Starts Production at New Battery Plant - VW Could Use Rivian Architecture for ICEs - Apollo Go Robotaxi on Profit Path - Waymo Expanding Onto Freeways - China Considers Vehicle Acceleration Limit

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.Two major hedge funds just blew up, and the internet instantly jumped to the whole “this feels like 2007” panic. You've probably seen the thumbnails already. Collapse. Crash. Doom. But when you dig into what actually happened, the story is way more interesting than the fear-mongering. This video breaks everything down in a way that makes sense and shows you what really matters behind the scenes.It all kicks off with a dramatic headline about subprime funds getting wiped out. And sure, it grabs attention, but the real takeaway is how familiar the pattern looks. When liquidity gets tight and confidence cracks, things can unravel fast. That's exactly why understanding the market cycle becomes such a powerful edge. Once you know how stage one, stage two, stage three, and stage four actually look on a chart, all the noise starts to fade away.The video walks through those stages using real examples, showing how the 10 EMA, 20 EMA, and 50 EMA tell the truth long before the headlines do. Most traders don't realize they're buying at the very beginning of stage three, which is why it feels like the market keeps slapping them around. Once you see it, you can't unsee it.Here's what you'll pick up along the way:✅ How the full market cycle really works✅ The signals that actually start a bullish trend✅ Why traders always seem to buy the top✅ How bank redemptions turn into liquidity spirals✅ The surprising overlap between UBS today and Bear Stearns back thenThere's also a super clear breakdown of how bank runs happen in real life. Not the movie version, the real-world version where people pull funds, banks scramble to sell assets, and suddenly confidence disappears. Once you understand that, the whole UBS situation makes a lot more sense.The video also takes a look at past crashes like 1987 and the Covid drop to show something most people don't want to admit. The market almost always gives warning signs. The trend breaks first, then the disaster comes later. You don't have to guess tops or bottoms. You just need a plan that responds to what the market is actually doing.And if you've been curious about options rolling or why traders shift from deep in the money to slightly out of the money, that gets explained in a simple, real-world way. Delta, gamma, credit received, reduced risk, keeping the trade alive, it's all laid out without the usual confusion that comes with options talk.There's also a look at how OVTLYR helps with notifications, exit signals, ATR stops, and the kind of education that helps you trade based on structure instead of emotion. The whole point is helping you cut through the fear and actually make informed decisions.If you're tired of the clickbait panic and want a grounded, practical look at what's going on with hedge funds, liquidity, and smart trade management, this video is absolutely worth watching.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

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Auto retailers and fintechs mostly reported growth in the third quarter amid mixed October retail sales, flat vehicle values and some layoffs. CarMax named David McCreight as its interim president and CEO, replacing Bill Nash, effective Dec. 1. Nash is not retiring, and the shakeup comes as the Richmond, Va.-based retailer's comparable store used-vehicle retail sales are expected to drop between 8% and 12% year over year in the third quarter of its fiscal 2026, according to CarMax's Nov. 6 release. Meanwhile, EV makers Lucid Motors and Rivian saw deliveries jump 46.6% YoY and 31.8% YoY, respectively, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30. AI-powered lending platform Upstart also saw growth in Q3, with auto loan originations up 357.1% YoY on issuance of 6,705 loans, according to a Nov. 4 Upstart presentation.  However, fintech Open Lending saw certified loan volume drop 13% YoY to 23,880, according to its Nov. 6 release. The fall came as Open Lending prepares to roll out a new credit decisioning platform. Vroom subsidiary United Auto Credit Corp. also originated $107 million in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, up 7% year over year but down 6.1% quarter over quarter. The mostly positive Q3 reports came as auto lenders tightened their credit standards. The average new-vehicle auto loan rate increased 19 basis points month over month in October to 9.6%, according to Cox Automotive. This rise is despite a 25-basis-point cut by the Federal Reserve on Oct. 29. Meanwhile, lender Prestige Financial Services reportedly laid off employees in early November, according to posts from former employees. The reported layoffs come as the subprime market faces challenges in affordability and credit performance. With these headwinds and elimination of the federal EV tax credit, automakers reported mixed sales in October. Toyota Motor North America saw sales surge 11.8% YoY to 207,910 vehicles, while Mazda's sales plummeted 32.6% YoY to 25,161 vehicles, according to the companies. In this episode of “Weekly Wrap,” Auto Finance News Editor Amanda Harris discusses trends across third-quarter earnings, vehicle values and sales for the week ended Nov. 7. 

Auto lenders are homing in on key areas of underwriting to manage risk and grow in 2026 as the subprime market continues to face challenges with credit performance and affordability.Improved loan decisioning, declining interest rates, the use of data and analytics, and responsible growth are top of mind for auto lenders into next year, leaders said at the recent Auto Finance Summit 2025.The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points (bps) on Oct. 29, prompting lenders to prepare for an uptick in refinance opportunities. However, affordability remains a leading concern, especially for subprime consumers.In fact, Irvine, Calif.-based subprime auto lender Bayside Credit stopped originating auto loans against the backdrop of challenging macroeconomic conditions.Subprime credit performance is also a concern in the auto securitization market, with  and lenders that target consumers who may not be legal U.S. citizens experiencing higher-than-expected losses.In other news, subprime lender Credit Acceptance Corp.'s originations fell 16.5% year over year in the third quarter amid competition and worsening loan performance.Carvana, on the other hand, posted a 58.8% YoY jump in originations in Q3 and increased its forward-flow agreement with Ally Financial.In this episode of “Weekly Wrap,” Auto Finance News Associate Editor Aidan Bush discusses trends across underwriting, subprime lending, capital markets and third-quarter earnings for the week ended Oct. 31.

In this episode, we are pleased to be joined by first time guest, JoAnne Binaco, Partner and Senior Investment Strategist at BondBloxx ETFs. Recorded in early October 2025, we discuss the recent headlines around high profile collapses of some subprime lenders and how such collapses do not necessarily portend a systemic risk to the broader corporate lending environment and how investment opportunities may emerge with the rise in credit volatility.  BondBloxx disclaimer: Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, which may be obtained by visiting https://bondbloxxetf.com/prospectuses/ or calling 800-896-5089. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. The Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC. There are risks associated with investing, including possible loss of principal.

The U.S. economy is headed for financial collapse. Repo market stress. Private credit market liquidity crunch. Subprime lending crisis. Spiraling deficits. Basis trade exposure. Dollar debasement. U.S. states in recession. Oil market contango. Tariff and trade wars. Each of these are like explosive devices hiding in the corners of the economic edifice that is the U.S. economy. And the Federal Reserve just released a shocking paper that exposes the biggest potential threat of all. Explosive devices have been set all around the economy and a new bomb was just uncovered in the most unlikely of places. Chapters Intro: 00:05:21 Chapter One: The Road to Economic Hegemony. 00:06:24 Chapter Two: Collision Course. 00:30:55 Chapter Three: Hidden Bomb. 00:35:50 Chapter Four: Bring It Home, Max. 00:44:50 Resources The Lead Left: Middle Market & Private Credit – 2/10/2025 Mark Zandi on X Axios: 22 states are in a recession or close to it, new analysis finds The Fed: The Cross-Border Trail of the Treasury Basis Trade FSB: Leverage in Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Final report Morningstar: Official data dramatically underestimates hedge funds' involvement in the Treasury market, Fed paper finds Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Repo Operations Fidelity: Investor behind Zions, Western Alliance bad loans is tied to $270 million in troubled debt Car Dealership Guy: Tricolor: The messy collapse of a subprime auto lender explained Investopedia: Basis Trading: Definition, How It Works, Example The Guardian: What is private credit, and should we be worried by the collapse of US firms? OilPrice.com: Oil Market Braces for Contango and Shale Slowdown -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We have a couple more names to add to our fast-growing list of shadow banking casualties. And, yes, collateral is once again the common theme. One of them is of course in subprime auto financing, but that's just another canary in the credit coalmine. The other has been accused of fabricating half a billion of collateral invoices. Half a billion. Fake collateral.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WSJ Bankrupt Telecom Business Accused of Fraud in Receivables Financinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/bankrupt-telecom-business-accused-of-fraud-in-receivables-financing-0370b4fdBloombergLaw Factoring-Firm Affiliate Files Chapter 11; Up to $1B Liabilitieshttps://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/factoring-firm-affiliate-files-chapter-11-up-to-1b-liabilitiesFreightWaves Factoring companies squeezed by slowing shipper payments: Alsobrookshttps://www.freightwaves.com/news/factoring-companies-squeezed-by-slowing-shipper-payments-alsobrooksBloomberg BOE's Bailey Warns ‘Alarm Bells' Ringing in Private Credithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/boe-s-bailey-warns-of-financial-crisis-echoes-in-private-credithttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In this episode, we break down record 60-day auto-loan delinquencies and a subprime lender's bankruptcy to show how cracks at the fringe can ripple into tighter lending, higher costs, and broader economic strain. We also share practical guardrails for taking (or avoiding) car loans and why borrowers, lenders, and local leaders should watch these early warning signs closely.Get the top 40+ AI Models for $20 at AI Box: ⁠⁠https://aibox.ai

Links & ResourcesFollow us on social media for updates: ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠Check out our recommended tool: ⁠⁠Prop Stream⁠⁠Thank you for listening!

The North American auto industry is under real cost pressure, posits Nishit Madlani. He discusses how tariffs have hit the industry and how consumers can't handle cost increases with car payments already high. He expects a single-digit decline in volumes next year. Nishit is also concerned about subprime auto loans as vendors become more aggressive.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

 Chris Markowski, known as the Watchdog on Wall Street, discusses the harsh realities of the financial world, emphasizing the importance of long-term wealth building and the risks associated with Wall Street and crypto trading. He critiques the growing influence of private equity in 401(k) plans and the ethical dilemmas surrounding good money versus bad money. Markowski also highlights the impact of regulations on small banks and the ongoing subprime auto lending crisis, ultimately calling for greater financial integrity and accountability.

The market is sending mixed signals, so what does that mean for buyers and sellers right now? Prices are cooling toward neutral, new listings are finally creeping up, pending sales just slipped, and days on market are the longest since 2019. We sort through the latest data so you can read your local market with clear eyes. A government shutdown is already touching housing. With the National Flood Insurance Program paused, some coastal and riverine deals are stalling as buyers struggle to bind coverage. We explain one potential workaround by assigning an existing policy, plus how many closings could be delayed if the lapse drags on. Zooming out, we track fresh signs of consumer strain. Subprime auto delinquencies are at a record, average car payments now top 750 dollars a month, and sentiment has split sharply between households with big stock portfolios and those without. Several states are flirting with recession risk, which could tug mortgage rates lower, while sticky inflation could keep them pinned. In This Episode We Cover Cooling home prices, rising days on market, and what a near-flat Case-Shiller trend means for offers and list strategy The shutdown's housing ripple effects, including the flood insurance lapse and an assignment tactic that may keep deals alive Why pending sales dipped even as new listings rose, and how to negotiate in a thinner buyer pool Auto loan stress, four-figure car payments, and what these budget pressures mean for future housing demand A tale of two consumers, plus a state-by-state look at recession risk and how that feeds into mortgage rates Action steps for buyers, sellers, and investors in a market that is cooling, not crashing Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Property Manager Finder Dave's BiggerPockets Profile   Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-364⁠   Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bienvenue dans le seul Morningbull où même ton café hésite avant d'ouvrir Bloomberg. Ce matin, on parle du dernier coup de génie de Donald Trump — celui qui a réussi à faire fondre 2'000 milliards de dollars de capitalisation boursière… avec un simple tweet de 161 caractères. Les marchés paniquent. Le Bitcoin tangue. Les algos deviennent fous Et Trump tourne la veste 48 heures plus tard..

Andrew Sleigh from Sprott Money joins to break down the silver shortage rumors, the collapse of the COMEX short positions, and why fiat currencies are entering their final phase.Are we witnessing the endgame for the dollar?----------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------

Shoot us a Text.Episode #1168: Today we're covering how top dealerships are building stronger workplace cultures, why subprime auto delinquencies are rising, and how Ferrari's first EV aims to keep its signature sound authentic.The Automotive News 2025 Best Dealerships To Work For study reveals what separates top employers from the rest — and it's more about people than paychecks.Winning dealerships excelled in communication, transparency, and trust — 88% of employees said they're “kept aware of the dealership's financial status” vs. just 65% at nonwinners.They lead with fairness: 92% of employees at top stores felt “paid fairly,” and were satisfied with their benefits, compared to 71% elsewhere.Flexible work options are gaining traction, with 48% of Best Dealerships offering four-day workweeks and 79% offering flexible hours.Health and wellness programs were a hallmark — 70% offered fitness reimbursements, and 75% trained managers to spot stress and burnout.“You build trust through being transparent,” said Tim Bergstrom, CEO of Bergstrom AutomotiveThe top dealership to work for in 2025 is Capitol Nissan Salem of the Capitol Auto Group, but we have some friends on the list including Mohawk Honda, 6 from the Rohrman Auto Group, 2 from the Matthews Auto Group and nearly 40 from Bergstrom AutomotiveThe U.S. auto market is showing signs of financial strain as more buyers fall behind on car payments. Rising prices, higher interest rates, and stagnant wages are hitting lower-income consumers hardest.Nearly 14% of new-car buyers now have credit scores below 650 — the highest share since 2016, according to J.D. Power.More than 6% of subprime auto loans are 60 or more days delinquent, a record high, Fitch Ratings reports.Roughly 1.7 million vehicles were repossessed last year — the most since 2009.Lender Tricolor Holdings filed for bankruptcy, underscoring the strain on borrowers with limited credit access.Ferrari's first EV, the Elettrica, won't fake the sound of a V8 — it's creating a new, authentic electric soundtrack. The brand's engineers designed a system that amplifies real motor vibrations to create a natural, emotionally engaging tone.Ferrari rejected synthetic engine noise and instead amplifies genuine drivetrain frequencies through a sensor on the rear axle.The sound activates only when the driver calls for torque, offering “dialogue between driver and car.”The system, developed in-house, works like an electric guitar — converting real vibrations into an audible, performance-linked tone.Ferrari hasn't yet revealed the sound to the public, though early testers reportedly praised it.0:00 Intro with Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier1:35 New Auto Collabs Episode with Michael Kraut of ExpJoin Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the Fed minutes. In this episode, DiMartino Booth highlights how the Fed quietly reclassified nearly $300 billion in loans on a Friday afternoon with no comment, shifting them from stodgy commercial categories into the "black box" of non-depository financial institution (NDFI) lending now totaling $1.7 trillion. She draws parallels to Enron as First Brands bankruptcy exposes what appeared to be an auto supplier was actually a financial using off-balance sheet vehicles, with subprime delinquency rates likely double reported figures. Elsewhere, Booth warns youth unemployment hit 1988 levels but from lack of demand not supply as companies blindly adopt AI without hiring, leaving the Class of 2025 worse off than 2024. She argues gold has become a "meme stock" with Wall Street firms' price targets signaling contrarian risk, while the government shutdown leaves the Fed "flying blind" without official data for their October 29th meeting.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Hawkish Fed minutes - knife in Miran's back1:44 Fed insider on Miran controversy2:48 Did Fed want September cut?5:08 Shutdown means Fed flying blind October6:04 Gold and NASDAQ flying - unusual7:03 Gold as meme stock - contrarian warning9:50 NDFI loans - $1.7 trillion black box12:21 $250B loan reclassification bombshell13:14 Fed reclassified quietly on Friday14:17 First brands like Enron revelation16:21 Off balance sheet financing returns18:25 Subprime delinquencies likely double20:15 Is this systemic? Fed doesn't know21:28 Fed won't move without official data22:22 Challenger data horror at Fed24:52 Charts need gray recession bars25:12 Fed put born October 198727:32 Youth unemployment demand crisis30:02 AI adoption without hiring32:24 Parents worry kids made redundant33:20 First five years determine career35:48 Not sending kids to college37:11 Put faces on repo statistics38:47 Markets masking K economy39:01 Lowercase i economy concept

In this Garage Edition of The Court of Public Opinion, Jeremy Cordeaux dives into Australia’s biggest talking points — from housing policy madness and aluminium wine bottles to bulk billing failures, media censorship, and Donald Trump’s military shake-up. He questions government logic, celebrates Peanuts’ 75th anniversary, and calls for common sense in an age of absurdity. 75th anniversary of Peanuts and the legacy of Charlie Brown Rising property prices and Labor’s “5% deposit” housing policy Subprime-style government-backed mortgages and the risk of defaults Erin Patterson’s mushroom case appeal Wine industry adopting aluminium bottles in pursuit of net zero Bulk billing decline and the Medicare illusion Hilarious story: erectile cream prescribed for eyes due to bad handwriting Freedom of speech under threat: new misinformation laws Interest rates, cost of living, and electricity prices Trump’s military crackdown: no more “woke generals” or political correctness Possibility of unrest or military tension in the US Reflections on art, investment, and authenticity Historical notes: Pan Am, tuxedos, the Beach Boys, and Christopher Reeve See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

WWJ auto analyst John McElroy reports car loan delinquencies are causing some concern. (Photo: Getty Images)

- Tesla Q3 Sales Stun Critics - Cybertruck Selling in Middle East - BYD Outsells Tesla in BEVs - BYD Fleet Capable Of 1 Million Exports/Year - Sub-Prime Car Loans Send Warning Signs  - American Car Buyers Want $5,000 Discounts on EVs - Nissan To Launch Robotaxis In Japan - EU Calls for AV Strategy - Wuling Launches New Brand, Moves Upscale - S. Korean Workers Return to U.S. Battery Plant

- Tesla Q3 Sales Stun Critics - Cybertruck Selling in Middle East - BYD Outsells Tesla in BEVs - BYD Fleet Capable Of 1 Million Exports/Year - Sub-Prime Car Loans Send Warning Signs  - American Car Buyers Want $5,000 Discounts on EVs - Nissan To Launch Robotaxis In Japan - EU Calls for AV Strategy - Wuling Launches New Brand, Moves Upscale - S. Korean Workers Return to U.S. Battery Plant

Andy Mayers sees opportunity in subprime and other parts of auto finance. The associate vice president of business operations for retail solutions with Cox Automotive explained his reasons during this episode of the Auto Remarketing Podcast. Mayers also mentioned another part of the business where dealers and lenders are working even closer together nowadays.

Neste episódio bônus de Stock Pickers, Lucas Collazo explica a história da crise de 2008. Foi o ano em que o Lehman Brothers quebrou, a bolha imobiliária estourou e o mundo esteve a horas de um colapso financeiro total. Entre personagens como Michael Burry, Steve Eisman e Greg Lippmann, que apostaram contra o mercado e foram retratados no filme A Grande Aposta, e a queda dos gigantes de Wall Street, o episódio mostra como uma crise imobiliária quase destruiu o sistema global.Entre resgates bilionários, decisões polêmicas do Fed e do governo americano e a perda de confiança que paralisou mercados e empregos, a crise deixou cicatrizes profundas e lições que continuam atuais. Um episódio especial para entender o que realmente aconteceu em 2008, o impacto que ainda ecoa no mercado financeiro e a pergunta que não quer calar: qual (e quando) será a próxima bolha? 

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_US----------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home----------------------------------------------------------------Everyone has been abuzz about Tricolor's bankruptcy. The subprime auto lender has already created hundreds of millions in losses and for some of the biggest banks. But the real story here isn't those hundreds of millions, rather the trillions in debt that is priced on financial variable that's otherwise impossible to pin down. Tricolor's bankruptcy just might shed some light on it. Will the financial world like what it could find?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFifth Bank 8-Khttps://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000035527/000003552725000185/fitb-20250905.htmBloomberg Tricolor Trustee Targets 100,000 Auto Loans Stuck in Limbohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/tricolor-trustee-seeks-control-over-100-000-subprime-auto-loansWired Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Streethttps://www.wired.com/2009/02/wp-quant/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The recent collapse of Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender in Texas, has left a trail of losses and questions from Wall Street to low-income immigrant communities throughout the American south-west. The FT's US banking correspondent Akila Quinio, and Amelia Pollard, US investment correspondent, explain what they've found.Clip from Fifth Third- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Tricolor collapse sparks concern about health of US subprime auto sectorDebt linked to collapsed subprime auto lender Tricolor tumblesJPMorgan and Fifth Third face losses tied to collapsed subprime car lender- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Follow Amelia Pollard on X (@ameliajpollard) and Bluesky (@pollard.bsky.social) and Akila Quinio on X (@akilazoe). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Shoot us a Text.Episode #1154: Ford gets creative to close Q3 with a subprime rate push on F-150s. New Jersey locks in fair pay for techs doing recall work. And Chick-fil-A jumps into the specialty drink race with a fresh new concept.Show Notes with links:Ford is making a bold push to close Q3 strong by offering promotional interest rates to subprime borrowers—an unusual but calculated move that underscores growing affordability challenges in the new vehicle market.The deal, ending this month, allows buyers with credit scores below 620 to access the same low rates typically reserved for prime borrowers.Ford is targeting this incentive to move more F-150 pickups, which now range from $39K to nearly $80K.With average monthly payments nearing $750 and interest rates at 6.4%, the brand sees affordability as a top barrier to closing deals.Extended terms of 72–84 months are increasingly common, and Ford's finance arm says only 3–4% of its 2024 loans qualify as “higher risk.”“We wanted to provide the opportunity to those with credit ratings that may not be perfect,” a Ford spokesperson said. “This could help offset rising monthly payments.”New legislation in New Jersey is giving dealership service departments a major boost—ensuring fair pay for recall and warranty work while holding automakers more accountable.The “Motor Vehicle Open Recall Notice and Fair Compensation Act” takes effect April 2026.Manufacturers must reimburse at retail labor rates, not discounted warranty rates.Automakers must also pay 1.5% monthly of book value for any “stop sale” or “do not drive” recall units sitting on lots.Illinois saw an annual $249M increase in warranty payouts after passing similar legislation.“This legislation represents a critical step forward… and ensures that automakers fairly compensate those who fix their mistakes,” said NJ CAR President Laura Perrotta.Chick-fil-A is entering the specialty drink wars with a new concept called Daybright, a standalone beverage-focused brand launching near Atlanta later this fall.Daybright will feature smoothies, cold-pressed juices, and specialty coffees—no chicken sandwiches here.Operated by Chick-fil-A's innovation arm, Red Wagon Ventures, the concept joins earlier spin-offs like Little Blue Menu and Pennycake.The new brand enters a booming beverage space already being chased by McDonald's, Taco Bell, and Wendy's.Competitors like 7 Brew and Dutch Bros have seen triple-digit growth as Gen Z flocks to drink-first concepts.0:00 Intro with Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier1:07 Huge Launch Announcement at MoreThanCars.com2:20 ASOTU Edge Webinar TODAY at 2PM on Cost-Cutting3:10 Ford Offers Low Rates To Sub-Prime Buyers5:29 New Jersey MandJoin Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/

GiveSendGo: https://www.givesendgo.com/GEUB9 Live show 8PM EST: https://odysee.com/@PNNAmerica:a/PNNAmericaJan PNN America official simplex.chat room: https://files.catbox.moe/bhos77.png PNN America Odysee channel: https://odysee.com/@PNNAmerica:a PNN Texas Odysee channel: https://odysee.com/@Diogenes:2/PNNTexas:d Reddit alternative: https://soj.ooo/ Help by supporting the show: cash.app/PNNAmerica Bitcoin: bc1q775yrp0az9e88yp3nzg0a5p7nzgex0m7e8xcdk Dogecoin: DS1Fp4wmQ1jdbYj4cqi3MJNWmzYe6tt9w4 Monero: 8BaVtQCDnQhY1Wc3twwx2NCPumhTTVCweZRQT2X7V3D9gfEUCWt6U79izJp2qiDYx3cAjPjQFEWxFbKyLoTTWSRzGC27Tdk MY Website! (Book included): pnnamerica.com

Tricolor Auto Acceptance's chapter 7 bankruptcy filing on Sept. 10 has led to ratings downgrades for the financier and talks of potentially wider implications for the buy here, pay here and subprime markets.  The Texas-based buy here, pay here retailer and lender closed its dealerships in tandem with its filing for liquidation.  Since then, ratings agencies Kroll Bond Ratings Agency, Moody's Ratings and S&P Global placed their ratings on Tricolor securitization transactions under watch for potential downgrades. Backup servicer Vervent Inc. is also prepping to takeover servicing of Tricolor's portfolio.  Tricolor's closure could spark a ripple effect for small subprime lenders, especially after subprime lender Automotive Credit Corp. also indefinitely paused all originations Aug. 7. For floorplan lenders, bankruptcies can lead to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses and trigger efforts to recoup losses tied to remaining assets.  In this episode of the “Weekly Wrap,” Auto Finance News Editor Amanda Harris, Senior Associate Editor Truth Headlam and Associate Editor Aidan Bush discuss the ramifications of Tricolor Auto's bankruptcy. 

Nonbank auto lenders may soon have a reason to celebrate, following a proposed rule change by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to how it defines larger participants of the auto market. On Aug. 7, the bureau filed an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking to change the definition of a larger participant in auto to nonbank entities with up to 1.1 million aggregate annual originations, an increase from 10,000. This followed the CFPB's July 14 motion filed with the Office of Management and Budget which would rule on the request. The change, if approved, would reduce the number of financiers considered larger participants to five from 63, according to the notice. Traditional lenders and nonbank entities would still be subject to state laws even if they are no longer under CFPB jurisdiction.  While this unfolds, lenders are also working to seize opportunities in the market.  Auto lenders are continuing to lean into refinance programs on the heels of stabilizing interest rates and consumers' search for affordability and better loan terms. Subprime lender Arivo Acceptance Chief Executive Landon Starr told Auto Finance News that the company is ramping up its refinance program with a goal of $60 million in average monthly origination volume. In fact, TransUnion estimates 18 million consumers, or 23% of borrowers with open auto loans, have interest rates that exceed the average APR in the industry.  Also, average vehicle transaction prices jumped 5.2% year over year in the second quarter to $31,216, according to an Edmunds report published Aug. 12. In this episode of the “Weekly Wrap,” Auto Finance News Senior Associate Editor Truth Headlam and Associate Editor Aidan Bush discuss trends across second-quarter bank earnings for the week ended Aug. 15.  

Join this channel to get access to perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVr5MNf7Nt5oCXywsUh-ttA/join   Looking to buy used and new games?  Use my affiliate link  with Noble Knight Games https://www.nobleknight.com/?awid=1459   Hungry is by Original Don, and Peter Vaughan of Cardboard Alchemy to  discuss RageCon, and then by Navigator Lana to discuss Conquest Princess.   0:00 - Intro RECENT PLAYS & NEXT ON THE TABLE 3:28 Clank Legacy 2 8:27 - Andromeda's Edge Genesis 12:18 - Pericle: The Gathering Darkness 17:12 - Bomb Busters 18:56 - Nanolith 20:38 - Whisperwood 22:31 - RAGECon BEST OF THE CON 34:27 - Best Moment: Backyard Chickens, Flamecraft Duals, Being Awful at Dwellings 42:24 - Biggest Surprise: Fat Tuesday, Exhibitor Hall, All Aboard! 50:55 - Best Loss: Inferno, Galactic Cruise, Ahoy 55:50 - Best Win: Resurgence, Thunder Road, Andromeda's Edge 1:03:00 - Game of the Con: Backyard Chickens, Everything Bree Touches, Bombusters 1:11:06 - Peter's Words of Wisdom 1:13:31 - NOBLE KNIGHT 1:14:00 - Navigator Lana and Conquest Princess 1:35:44 - Lana's Words of Wisdom 1:36:38 - Bonus Clip     Check out the video version here: https://youtu.be/l033N82kwXA   Check out Cardboard Alchemy here: https://cardboardalchemy.com/ Check out Lana here: www.instagram.com/navigatorlana and www.tiktok.com/navigatorlana www.navigatorlana.blog

The 2025 Green Bay Packers are slandered. How hard is it to play a CD in 2025? Follow us on Betstamp and we can write and produce our own vanity hip hop records! https://signupexpert.com/thfantac Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wash of the Origin hangover and lets find some value. On the show:Accountability Tigers v RaidersWarriors v PanthersDolphins v KnightsRabbitohs v StormBroncos v SharksRoosters v CowboysEels v TitansUnit Scooper & Hot SeatWhatever you bet on, Take it to the Neds Level. Visit: https://www.neds.com.au/Prices subject to change. What's gambling really costing you?. Set a deposit limit.Join the Neds About Even Group: www.neds.com.au/hosted-group/DRIBBLER Eligibility requirements apply. T&Cs apply and available on website. Follow us on insta @abouteven_ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Third-generation dealer Paul “PS3” Sansone III joins the Blue-Collar Twins to share how Sansone Jr's Auto Group balances 67 years of family tradition with social-media hustle, deep-subprime financing, and a brand-new Keyport Kia store. From rent-to-own experiments that became New Jersey Auto Lending to “Motivational Mondays” that fire up 25 salespeople, Paul explains the systems—and the mindset—that keep customers, staff, and community in his corner. Buzz EP 206 Paul Sanson… You'll hear: Subprime Mastery – why PS3 built an in-house “lease-here, pay-here” bank that boosts FICO scores by 140 pts on average.EZ Referral & TikTok Lives – turning marathon streams and a debit-card referral app into steady showroom traffic.Rent-to-Own Origins – the 2008 light-bulb moment that reshaped the family's finance model.Keyport Kia Dream – taking an 11-year college project from paper to grand-opening on June 9th.Motivational Mondays – money-green pants, weekly goal-setting, and the “trust the process” mantra.Giving Back – 400-meal Basket Brigade, Hope-for-a-Ride car giveaways, and why single moms stay top of mind.Next-Gen Vision – ten rooftops, nationwide DMS software, and keeping the Sansone name alive for 100 years. From PE Teachers to Pest Control Owners: The Julio Twins Share Their POTOMAC Experience https://youtu.be/HAx9noqsqTo https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulgiannamore www.potomaccompany.com https://bluecollartwins.com Produced by: www.verbell.ltd Timestamps (podcast.co-ready) 00:00 – Cold-open: beach-club memories and the “hot lifeguard” origin story 00:50 – Lifelong car passion & selling hot dogs at the dealership as a kid 03:35 – Sansone family tree: 67 years, three generations, five rooftops 05:55 – Breaking the “snaky car-sales” stereotype with relationship selling 07:00 – Daily training: every up is a coaching moment 08:35 – Presidents-Award Kia store & handing the desk to a new GM 11:00 – Rent-to-Own concept after the 2008 crash 12:45 – Birth of New Jersey Auto Lending: turning renters into owners 14:40 – Hope-for-a-Ride car giveaways to single moms 16:55 – Inside the lease-here, pay-here model and 75 % repeat business 19:10 – Building the Keyport Kia project first dreamed up in college 22:30 – Dealer-Controlled Solutions: exporting their DMS & finance playbook 25:20 – COVID's inventory roller-coaster—down to four cars on the lot 29:20 – Basket Brigade: 400 Thanksgiving meals in Neptune 30:35 – Motivational Monday videos & money-green-pants culture 33:00 – Social media plans with a full-time content team 35:25 – AI's future role in lead follow-up and CRM speed 38:00 – Family dynamics: clear lanes for dad, brother Michael, and cousin Steven 41:00 – Driving the 2025 Kia Telluride vs. a Range Rover—value breakdown 43:40 – Keyport Kia soft opening June 9 and summer car-giveaway promo 47:00 – Final advice: love your employees, community, and customers—success follows 50:00 – Outro and Masterclass CTA

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog and author of "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream," returns to the show with a monthly update on markets and the economy.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaIn this episode, Whalen argues the Fed's easy money era is over, with no rate cuts coming this year and traditional monetary policy failing to help Main Street. He warns of a "silent subprime crisis" brewing in multifamily real estate and sees stagflation ahead - low growth with persistent inflation eating away at real purchasing power. Whalen advocates for gold as protection against currency debasement and explains why recession odds have dropped to 27% despite structural economic challenges from commercial real estate to student loan repayments as pandemic-era programs wind down.Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:00:10 - Introduction of Chris Whalen 02:11 - Big picture market outlook and elevated interest rates 04:30 - No rate cuts coming this year discussion 05:38 - Trump's "big beautiful bill" and Senate dynamics 06:17 - Fed balance sheet reduction and inflation persistence 08:02 - Silent subprime crisis in multifamily real estate 09:13 - Mixed bag stock market outlook explanation 10:42 - Recession probability13:20 - Real estate opportunities and putting deals together 14:04 - Jay Gould and Jim Fisk arbitrage between gold and paper 16:57 - Fed's 2% inflation policy and its impact on savers 18:20 - Gold as anti-dollar hedge discussion 19:38 - Fall of fiat and return to sound money debate 21:00 - Why dropping rates no longer stimulates Main Street 22:13 - Chris's proposal to freeze government spending 24:11 - Banking system fluff and lack of credit demand 25:46 - Real vs nominal growth and stagflation 27:43 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 30:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find Chris's work

COVID-era programs that concealed credit reporting and scoring are expiring. Mortgage credit specialist John Comiskey joins Michael Green and Harley Bassman to reveal what has been swept under the rug.For more information, https://www.simplify.us. Questions about the content discussed in this video? Please contact info@simplify.us.Simplify Asset Management Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Simplify Asset Management Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission, nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy. This content is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice. This content is solely for informational purposes and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. These materials are made available on an “as is” basis, without representation or warranty. The information contained in these materials has been obtained from sources that Simplify Asset Management Inc. believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. This information is only current as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Neither the author nor Simplify Asset Management Inc. undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.

Today's podcast is titled “The 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis.” Recorded in 2008, Dennis McCuistion, former Clinical Professor of Corporate Governance and Executive Director of the Institute for Excellence in Corporate Governance at the University of Texas at Dallas, speaks with a panel of finance and banking professionals about the credit and subprime mortgage crisis and their predictions about a recession or depression.  Listen now, and don't forget to subscribe to get updates each week for the Free To Choose Media Podcast.

Today's show features: Bill Vaughn, General Manager of Al West Nissan, Ed Petersen, CEO of Wrench, Ryan Knight, Director of Operations at Knight Automotive Group. This episode is brought to you by: BizzyCar – How are top dealers keeping service profits high—even in uncertain times? They're using BizzyCar—the “easy button” for turning recall opportunities into real revenue. Built by dealers, for dealers, BizzyCar's AI-powered Recall Management and Mobile Service Platform helps service departments reengage lost customers, fill service bays, and boost revenue. Try BizzyCar today and get a special offer only for CDG listeners at https://carguymedia.com/bizzycar Wrench – Want to boost your gross profits by selling prepaid maintenance, without a service center? This new offering levels the playing field between independents like me and the big dealers. Wrench TotalCare lets you offer mobile maintenance plans—oil changes, tire rotations, even brakes—all done at your customer's home. Your customers get convenience. You get more revenue on every deal. And if you're using DealerCenter, it's already built into your workflow for seamless upsells.Not on DealerCenter? No problem. Visit https://carguymedia.com/wrench_ddl and start earning on every deal today. Interested in advertising with Car Dealership Guy? Drop us a line here: ⁠⁠https://cdgpartner.com⁠⁠ Interested in being considered as a guest on the podcast? Add your name here: ⁠⁠https://bit.ly/3Suismu⁠⁠ Check out Car Dealership Guy's stuff: CDG News ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://news.dealershipguy.com/⁠⁠⁠ CDG Jobs ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://jobs.dealershipguy.com/⁠⁠⁠ CDG Recruiting ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://www.cdgrecruiting.com/⁠⁠⁠ My Socials: X ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://www.twitter.com/GuyDealership⁠⁠⁠ Instagram ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/cardealershipguy/⁠⁠⁠ TikTok ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@guydealership⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/cardealershipguy/⁠⁠⁠ Threads ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://www.threads.net/@cardealershipguy⁠⁠⁠ Facebook ➤ ⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100077402857683⁠⁠⁠ Everything else ➤⁠⁠⁠ dealershipguy.com

In this episode of the Real Estate Pros podcast, host Dylan Silver interviews Bo Belmont, founder of Bellwood Investments, who shares his journey from subprime lending to becoming a successful real estate investor and entrepreneur. Beau discusses his early experiences in the fix and flip market, the challenges he faced, and how he transitioned to creating a fractional real estate investment platform that democratizes access to luxury real estate. The conversation highlights the importance of education, community involvement, and innovative security measures in real estate investing.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true ‘white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a “mini-mastermind” with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming “Retreat”, either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas “Big H Ranch”? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

We are calling for the world's best AI Engineer talks for AI Architects, /r/localLlama, Model Context Protocol (MCP), GraphRAG, AI in Action, Evals, Agent Reliability, Reasoning and RL, Retrieval/Search/RecSys , Security, Infrastructure, Generative Media, AI Design & Novel AI UX, AI Product Management, Autonomy, Robotics, and Embodied Agents, Computer-Using Agents (CUA), SWE Agents, Vibe Coding, Voice, Sales/Support Agents at AIEWF 2025! Fill out the 2025 State of AI Eng survey for $250 in Amazon cards and see you from Jun 3-5 in SF!Coreweave's now-successful IPO has led to a lot of questions about the GPU Neocloud market, which Dylan Patel has written extensively about on SemiAnalysis. Understanding markets requires an interesting mix of technical and financial expertise, so this will be a different kind of episode than our usual LS domain.When we first published $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble Burst, we got 2 kinds of reactions on Hacker News:* “Ah, now the AI bubble is imploding!”* “Duh, this is how it works in every GPU cycle, are you new here?”We don't think either reaction is quite right. Specifically, it is not normal for the prices of one of the world's most important resources right now to swing from $1 to $8 per hour based on drastically inelastic demand AND supply curves - from 3 year lock-in contracts to stupendously competitive over-ordering dynamics for NVIDIA allocations — especially with increasing baseline compute needed for even the simplest academic ML research and for new AI startups getting off the ground.We're fortunate today to have Evan Conrad, CEO of SFCompute, one of the most exciting GPU marketplace startups, talk us through his theory of the economics of GPU markets, and why he thinks CoreWeave and Modal are well positioned, but Digital Ocean and Together are not.However, more broadly, the entire point of SFC is creating liquidity between GPU owners and consumers and making it broadly tradable, even programmable:As we explore, these are the primitives that you can then use to create your own, high quality, custom GPU availability for your time and money budget, similar to how Amazon Spot Instances automated the selective buying of unused compute.The ultimate end state of where all this is going is GPU that trade like other perishable, staple commodities of the world - oil, soybeans, milk. Because the contracts and markets are so well established, the price swings also are not nearly as drastic, and people can also start hedging and managing the risk of one of the biggest costs of their business, just like we have risk-managed commodities risks of all other sorts for centuries. As a former derivatives trader, you can bet that swyx doubleclicked on that…Show Notes* SF Compute* Evan Conrad* Ethan Anderson* John Phamous* The Curve talk* CoreWeave* Andromeda ClusterFull Video PodLike and subscribe!Timestamps* [00:00:05] Introductions* [00:00:12] Introduction of guest Evan Conrad from SF Compute* [00:00:12] CoreWeave Business Model Discussion* [00:05:37] CoreWeave as a Real Estate Business* [00:08:59] Interest Rate Risk and GPU Market Strategy Framework* [00:16:33] Why Together and DigitalOcean will lose money on their clusters* [00:20:37] SF Compute's AI Lab Origins* [00:25:49] Utilization Rates and Benefits of SF Compute Market Model* [00:30:00] H100 GPU Glut, Supply Chain Issues, and Future Demand Forecast* [00:34:00] P2P GPU networks* [00:36:50] Customer stories* [00:38:23] VC-Provided GPU Clusters and Credit Risk Arbitrage* [00:41:58] Market Pricing Dynamics and Preemptible GPU Pricing Model* [00:48:00] Future Plans for Financialization?* [00:52:59] Cluster auditing and quality control* [00:58:00] Futures Contracts for GPUs* [01:01:20] Branding and Aesthetic Choices Behind SF Compute* [01:06:30] Lessons from Previous Startups* [01:09:07] Hiring at SF ComputeTranscriptAlessio [00:00:05]: Hey everyone, welcome to the Latent Space podcast. This is Alessio, partner and CTO at Decibel, and I'm joined by my co-host Swyx, founder of Smol AI.Swyx [00:00:12]: Hey, and today we're so excited to be finally in the studio with Evan Conrad from SF Compute. Welcome. I've been fortunate enough to be your friend before you were famous, and also we've hung out at various social things. So it's really cool to see that SF Compute is coming into its own thing, and it's a significant presence, at least in the San Francisco community, which of course, it's in the name, so you couldn't help but be. Evan: Indeed, indeed. I think we have a long way to go, but yeah, thanks. Swyx: Of course, yeah. One way I was thinking about kicking on this conversation is we will likely release this right after CoreWeave IPO. And I was watching, I was looking, doing some research on you. You did a talk at The Curve. I think I may have been viewer number 70. It was a great talk. More people should go see it, Evan Conrad at The Curve. But we have like three orders of magnitude more people. And I just wanted to, to highlight, like, what is your analysis of what CoreWeave did that went so right for them? Evan: Sell locked-in long-term contracts and don't really do much short-term at all. I think like a lot of people had this assumption that GPUs would work a lot like CPUs and the like standard business model of any sort of CPU cloud is you buy commodity hardware, then you lay on services that are mostly software, and that gives you high margins and pretty much all your value comes from those services. Not really the underlying. Compute in any capacity and because it's commodity hardware and it's not actually that expensive, most of that can be sort of on-demand compute. And while you do want locked-in contracts for folks, it's mostly just a sort of de-risk situation. It helps you plan revenue because you don't know if people are going to scale up or down. But fundamentally, people are like buying hourly and that's how your business is structured and you make 50 percent margins or higher. This like doesn't really work in GPUs. And the reason why it doesn't work is because you end up with like super price sensitive customers. And that isn't because necessarily it's just way more expensive, though that's totally the case. So in a CPU cloud, you might have like, you know, let's say if you had a million dollars of hardware in GPUs, you have a billion dollars of hardware. And so your customers are buying at much higher volumes than you otherwise expect. And it's also smaller customers who are buying at higher amounts of volume. So relative to what they're spending in general. But in GPUs in particular, your customer cares about the scaling law. So if you take like Gusto, for example, or Rippling or an HR service like this, when they're buying from an AWS or a GCP, they're buying CPUs and they're running web servers, those web servers, they kind of buy up to the capacity that they need, they buy enough, like CPUs, and then they don't buy any more, like, they don't buy any more at all. Yeah, you have a chart that goes like this and then flat. Correct. And it's like a complete flat. It's not even like an incremental tiny amount. It's not like you could just like turn on some more nodes. Yeah. And then suddenly, you know, they would make an incremental amount of money more, like Gusto isn't going to make like, you know, 5% more money, they're gonna make zero, like literally zero money from every incremental GPU or CPU after a certain point. This is not the case for anyone who is training models. And it's not the case for anyone who's doing test time inference or like inference that has scales at test time. Because like you, your scaling laws mean that you may have some diminishing returns, but there's always returns. Adding GPUs always means your model does actually get. And that actually does translate into revenue for you. And then for test time inference, you actually can just like run the inference longer and get a better performance. Or maybe you can run more customers faster and then charge for that. It actually does translate into revenue. Every incremental GPU translates to revenue. And what that means from the customer's perspective is you've got like a flat budget and you're trying to max the amount of GPUs you have for that budget. And it's very distinctly different than like where Augusto or Rippling might think, where they think, oh, we need this amount of CPUs. How do we, you know, reduce that? How do we reduce our amount of money that we're spending on this to get the same amount of CPUs? What that translates to is customers who are spending in really high volume, but also customers who are super price sensitive, who don't give a s**t. Can I swear on this? Can I swear? Yeah. Who don't give a s**t at all about your software. Because a 10% difference in a billion dollars of hardware is like $100 million of value for you. So if you have a 10% margin increase because you have great software, on your billion, the customers are that price sensitive. They will immediately switch off if they can. Because why wouldn't you? You would just take that $100 million. You'd spend $50 million on hiring a software engineering team to replicate anything that you possibly did. So that means that the best way to make money in GPUs was to do basically exactly what CoreWeave did, which is go out and sign only long-term contracts, pretty much ignore the bottom end of the market completely, and then maximize your long-term contracts. With customers who don't have credit risk, who won't sue you, or are unlikely to sue you for frivolous reasons. And then because they don't have credit risk and they won't sue you for frivolous reasons, you can go back to your lender and you can say, look, this is a really low risk situation for us to do. You should give me prime, prime interest rate. You should give me the lowest cost of capital you possibly can. And when you do that, you just make tons of money. The problem that I think lots of people are going to talk about with CoreWeave is it doesn't really look like a cloud platform. It doesn't really look like a cloud provider financially. It also doesn't really look like a software company financially.Swyx [00:05:37]: It's a bank.Evan [00:05:38]: It's a bank. It's a real estate company. And it's very hard to not be that. The problem of that that people have tricked themselves into is thinking that CoreWeave is a bad business. I don't think CoreWeave is explicitly a bad business. There's a bunch of people, there's kind of like two versions of the CoreWeave take at the moment. There's, oh my God, CoreWeave, amazing. CoreWeave is this great new cloud provider competitive with the hyperscalers. And to some extent, this is true from a structural perspective. Like, they are indeed a real sort of thing against the cloud providers in this particular category. And the other take is, oh my gosh, CoreWeave is this horrible business and so on and blah, blah, blah. And I think it's just like a set of perception or perspective. If you think CoreWeave's business is supposed to look like the traditional cloud providers, you're going to be really upset to learn that GPUs don't look like that at all. And in fact, for the hyperscalers, it doesn't look like this either. My intuition is that the hyperscalers are probably going to lose a lot of money, and they know they're going to lose a lot of money on reselling NVIDIA GPUs, at least. Hyperscalers, but I want to, Microsoft, AWS, Google. Correct, yeah. The Microsoft, AWS, and Google. Does Google resell? I mean, Google has TPUs. Google has TPUs, but I think you can also get H100s and so on. But there are like two ways they can make money. One is by selling to small customers who aren't actually buying in any serious volume. They're testing around, they're playing around. And if they get big, they're immediately going to do one of two things. They're going to ask you for a discount. Because they're not going to pay your crazy sort of margin that you have locked into your business. Because for CPUs, you need that. They're going to pay your massive per hour price. And so they want you to sign a long-term contract. And so that's your other way that you can make money, is you can basically do exactly what CoreWeave does, which is have them pay as much as possible upfront and lock in the contract for a long time. Or you can have small customers. But the problem is that for a hyperscaler, the GPUs to... To sell on the low margins relative to what your other business, your CPUs are, is a worse business than what you are currently doing. Because you could have spent the same money on those GPUs. And you could have trained model and you could have made a model on top of it and then turn that into a product and had high margins from your product. Or you could have taken that same money and you could have competed with NVIDIA. And you could have cut into their margin instead. But just simply reselling NVIDIA GPUs doesn't work like your CPU business. Where you're able to capture high margins from big customers and so on. And then they never leave you because your customers aren't actually price sensitive. And so they won't switch off if your prices are a little higher. You actually had a really nice chart, again, on that talk of this two by two. Sure. Of like where you want to be. And you also had some hot takes on who's making money and who isn't. Swyx: So CoreUv locked up long-term contracts. Get that. Yes. Maybe share your mental framework. Just verbally describe it because we're trying to help the audio listeners as well. Sure. People can look up the chart if they want to. Evan: Sure. Okay. So this is a graph of interest rates. And on the y-axis, it's a probability you're able to sell your GPUs from zero to one. And on the x-axis, it's how much they'll depreciate in cost from zero to one. And then you had ISO cost curves or ISO interest rate curves. Yeah. So they kind of shape in a sort of concave fashion. Yeah. The lowest interest rates enable the most aggressive. form of this cost curve. And the higher interest rates go, the more you have to push out to the top right. Yeah. And then you had some analysis of where every player sits in this, including CoreUv, but also Together and Modal and all these other guys. I thought that was super insightful. So I just wanted to elaborate. Basically, it's like a graph of risk and the genres of places where you can be and what the risk is associated with that. The optimal thing for you to do, if you can, is to lock in long-term contracts that are paid all up front or in with a situation in which you trust the other party to pay you over time. So if you're, you know, selling to Microsoft or something or OpenAI. Which are together 77% of the revenue of CoreUv. Yeah. So if you're doing that, that's a great business to be in because your interest rate that you can pitch for is really low because no one thinks Microsoft is going to default. And like maybe OpenAI will default, but the backing by Microsoft kind of doesn't. And I think there's enough, like, generally, it looks like OpenAI is winning that you can make it's just a much better case than if you're selling to the pre-seed startup that just raised $30 million or something pre-revenue. It's like way easier to make the case that the OpenAI is not going to default than the pre-seed startup. And so the optimal place to be is selling to the maximally low risk customer for as long as possible. And then you never have to worry about depreciation and you make lots of money. The less. Good. Good place to be is you could sell long-term contracts to people who might default on you. And then if you're not bringing it to the present, so you're not like saying, hey, you have to pay us all up front, then you're in this like more risky territory. So is it top left of the chart? If I have the chart right, maybe. Large contracts paid over time. Yeah. Large contracts paid over time is like top left. So it's more risky, but you could still probably get away with it. And then the other opportunity is that you could sell short-term contracts for really high prices. And so lots of people tried that too, because this is actually closer to the original business model that people thought would work in cloud providers for CPUs. It works for CPUs, but it doesn't really work for GPUs. And I don't think people were trying this because they were thinking about the risk associated with it. I think a lot of people are just come from a software background, have not really thought about like cogs or margins or inventory risk or things that you have to worry about in the physical world. And I think they were just like copy pasting the same business model onto CPUs. And also, I remember fundraising like a few years ago. And I know based on. Like what we knew other people were saying who were in a very similar business to us versus what we were saying. And we know that our pitch was way worse at the time, because in the beginning of SF Compute, we looked very similar to pretty much every other GPU cloud, not on purpose, but sort of accidentally. And I know that the correct pitch to give to an investor was we will look like a traditional CPU cloud with high margins and we'll sell to everyone. And that is a bad business model because your customers are price sensitive. And so what happens is if you. Sell at high prices, which is the price that you would need to sell it in order to de-risk your loss on the depreciation curve, and specifically what I mean by that is like, let's say you're selling it like $5 an hour and you're paying $1.50 an hour for the GPU under the hood. It's a little bit different than that, but you know, nice numbers, $5 an hour, $1.50 an hour. Great. Excellent. Well, you're charging a really high price per GPU hour because over time the price will go down and you'll get competed out. And what you need is to make sure that you never go under, or if you do go under your underlying cost. You've made so much money in the first part of it that the later end of it, like doesn't matter because from the whole structure of the deal, you've made money. The problem is that just, you think that you're going to be able to retain your customers with software. And actually what happens is your customers are super price sensitive and push you down and push you down and push you down and push you down, um, that they don't care about your software at all. And then the other problem that you have is you have, um, really big players like the hyperscalers who are looking to win the market and they have way more money than you, and they can push down on margin. Much better than you can. And so if they have to, and they don't, they don't necessarily all the time, um, I think they actually keep pride of higher margin, but if they needed to, they could totally just like wreck your margin at any point, um, and push you down, which meant that that quadrant over there where you're charging a high price, um, and just to make up for the risk completely got destroyed, like did not work at all for many places because of the price sensitivity, because people could just shove you down instead that pushed everybody up to the top right-hand corner of that, which is selling short-term. Contracts for low prices paid over time, which is the worst place to be in, um, the worst financial place to be in because it has the highest interest rate, um, which means that your, um, your costs go up at the same time, your, uh, your incoming cash goes down and squeezes your margins and squeezes your margins. The nice thing for like a core weave is that most of their business is over on the, on the other sides of those quadrants that the ones that survive. The only remaining question I have with core weave, and I promise I get to ask if I can compute, and I promise this is relevant to SOF Compute in general, because the framework is important, right? Sure. To understand the company. So why didn't NVIDIA or Microsoft, both of which have more money than core weave, do core weave, right? Why didn't they do core weave? Why have this middleman when either NVIDIA or Microsoft have more money than God, and they could have done an internal core weave, which is effectively like a self-funding vehicle, like a financial instrument. Why does there have to be a third party? Your question is like... Why didn't Microsoft, or why didn't NVIDIA just do core weave? Why didn't they just set up their own cloud provider? I think, and I don't know, and so correct me if I'm wrong, and lots of people will have different opinions here, or I mean, not opinions, they'll have actual facts that differ from my facts. Those aren't opinions. Those are actually indeed differences of reality, is that NVIDIA doesn't want to compete with their customers. They make a large amount of money by selling to existing clouds. If they launched their own core weave, then it would be a lot more money. It'd make it much harder for them to sell to the hyperscalers, and so they have a complex relationship with there. So not great for them. Second is that, at least for a while, I think they were dealing with antitrust concerns or fears that if they're going through, if they own too much layers of the stack, I could imagine that could be a problem for them. I don't know if that's actually true, but that's where my mind would go, I guess. Mostly, I think it's the first one. It's that they would be competing directly with their primary customers. Then Microsoft could have done it, right? That's the other question. Yeah, so Microsoft didn't do it. And my guess is that... NVIDIA doesn't want Microsoft to do it, and so they would limit the capacity because from NVIDIA's perspective, both they don't want to necessarily launch their own cloud provider because it's competing with their customers, but also they don't want only one customer or only a few customers. It's really bad for NVIDIA if you have customer concentration, and Microsoft and Google and Amazon, like Oracle, to buy up your entire supply, and then you have four or five customers or so who pretty much get to set prices. Monopsony. Yeah, monopsony. And so the optimal thing for you is a diverse set of customers who all are willing to pay at whatever price, because if you don't, somebody else will. And so it's really optimal for NVIDIA to have lots of other customers who are all competing against each other. Great. Just wanted to establish that. It's unintuitive for people who have never thought about it, and you think about it all day long. Yeah. Swyx: The last thing I'll call out from the talk, which is kind of cool, and then I promise we'll get to SF Compute, is why will DigitalOcean and Together lose money on their clusters? Why will DigitalOcean and Together lose money on their clusters?Evan [00:16:33]: I'm going to start by clarifying that all of these businesses are excellent and fantastic. That Together and DigitalOcean and Lambda, I think, are wonderful businesses who build excellent products. But my general intuition is that if you try to couple the software and the hardware together, you're going to lose money. That if you go out and you buy a long-term contract from someone and then you layer on services, or you buy the hardware yourself and you spin it up and you get a bunch of debt, you're going to run into the same problem that everybody else did, the same problem we did, same problem the hyperscalers did. And that's exactly what the hyperscalers are doing, which is you cannot add software and make high margins like a cloud provider can. You can pitch that into investors and it will totally make sense, and it's like the correct play in CPUs, but there isn't software you could make to make this occur. If you're spending a billion dollars on hardware, you need to make a billion dollars of software. There isn't a billion dollars of software that you can realistically make, and if you do, you're going to look like SAP. And that's not a knock on SAP. SAP makes a f**k ton of money, right? Right. Right. Right. Right. There aren't that many pieces of software that you could make, that you can realistically sell, like a billion dollars of software, and you're probably not going to do it to price-sensitive customers who are spending their entire budget already on compute. They don't have any more money to give you. It's a very hard proposition to do. And so many parties have been trying to do this, like, buy their own compute, because that's what a traditional cloud does. It doesn't really work for them. You know that meme where there's, like, the Grim Reaper? And he's, like, knocking on the door, and then he keeps knocking on the next door? We have just seen door after door after door of the Grim Reeker comes by, and the economic realities of the compute market come knocking. And so the thing we encourage folks to do is if you are thinking about buying a big GPU cluster and you are going to layer on software on top, don't. There are so many dead bodies in the wake there. We would recommend not doing that. And we, as SF Compute, our entire business is structured to help you not do that. It's helped disintegrate these. The GPU clouds are fantastic real estate businesses. If you treat them like real estate businesses, you will make a lot of money. The cloud services you can make on that, all the software you want to make on that, you can do that fantastically. If you don't own the underlying hardware, if you mix these businesses together, you get shot in the head. But if you combine, if you split them, and that's what the market does, it helps you split them, it allows you to buy, like, layer on services, but just buy from the market, you can make lots of money. So companies like Modal, who don't own the underlying compute, like they don't own it, lots of money, fantastic product. And then companies like Corbeave, who are functionally like really, really good real estate businesses, lots of money, fantastic product. But if you combine them, you die. That's the economic reality of compute. I think it also splits into trading versus inference, which are different kinds of workloads. Yeah. And then, yeah, one comment about the price sensitivity thing before we leave this. This topic, I want to credit Martin Casado for coining or naming this thing, which is like, you know, you said, you said this thing about like, you don't have room for a 10% margin on GPUs for software. Yep. And Martin actually played it out further. It's his first one I ever saw doing this at large enough runs. So let's say GPT-4 and O1 both had a total trading cost of like a $500 billion is the rough estimate. When you get the $5 billion runs, when you get the $50 billion runs, it is actually makes sense to build your own. You're going to have to get into chips, like for OpenEI to get into chip design, which is so funny. I would make an ASIC for this run. Yeah, maybe. I think a caveat of that that is not super well thought about is that only works if you're really confident. It only works if you really know which chip you're going to do. If you don't, then it's a little harder. So it makes in my head, it makes more sense for inference where you've already established it. But for training there's so much like experimentation. Any generality, yeah. Yeah. The generality is much more useful. Yeah. In some sense, you know, Google's like six generations into the CPUs. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, cool. Maybe we should go into SF Compute now. Sure. Yeah.Alessio [00:20:37]: Yeah. So you kind of talked about the different providers. Why did you decide to go with this approach and maybe talk a bit about how the market dynamics have evolved since you started a company?Evan [00:20:47]: So originally we were not doing this at all. We were definitely like forced into this to some extent. And SF Compute started because we wanted to go train models for music and audio in general. We were going to do a sort of generic audio model at some points, and then we were going to do a music model at some points. It was an early company. We didn't really spec down on a particular thing. But yeah, we were going to do a music model and audio model. First thing that you do when you start any AI lab is you go out and you buy a big cluster. The thing we had seen everybody else do was they went out and they raised a really big round and then they would get stuck. Because if you raise the amount of money that you need to train a model initially, like, you know, the $50 million pre-seed, pre-revenue, your valuation is so high or you get diluted so much that you can't raise the next round. And that's a very big ask to make. And also, I don't know, I felt like we just felt like we couldn't do it. We probably could have in retrospect, but I think one, we didn't really feel like we could do it. Two, it felt like if we did, we would have been stuck later on. We didn't want to raise the big round. And so instead, we thought, surely by now, we would be able to just go out. To any provider and buy like a traditional CPU cloud would sell offer you and just buy like on demand or buy like a month or so on. And this worked for like small incremental things. And I think this is where we were basing it off. We just like assumed we could go to like Lambda or something and like buy thousands of at the time A100s. And this just like was not at all the case. So we started doing all the sales calls with people and we said, OK, well, can we just get like month to month? Can we get like one month of compute or so on? Everyone told us at the time, no. You need to have a year long contract or longer or you're out of luck. Sorry. And at the time, we were just like pissed off. Like, why won't nobody sell us a month at a time? Nowadays, we totally understand why, because it's the same economic reason. Because if you if they had sold us the month to month or so on and we canceled or so on, they would have massive risk on that. And so the optimal thing to do was to only to just completely abandon the section of the market. We didn't like that. So our plan was we were going to buy a year long contract anyway. We would use a month. And then we would. At least the other 11 months. And we were locked in for a year, but we only had to pay on every individual month. And so we did this. But then immediately we said, oh, s**t, now we have a cloud provider, not a like training models company, not an AI lab, because every 30 days we owed about five hundred thousand dollars or so and we had about five hundred thousand dollars in the bank. So that meant that every single month, if we did not sell out our cluster, we would just go bankrupt. So that's what we did for the first year of the company. And when you're in that position. You try to think how in the world you get out of that position, what that transition to is, OK, well, we tend to be pretty good at like selling this cluster every month because we haven't died yet. And so what we should do is we should go basically be like this broker for other people and we will be more like a GPU real estate or like a GPU realtor. And so we started doing that for a while where we would go to other people who had who was trying to sell like a year long contract with somebody and we'd go to another person who like maybe this person wanted six months and somebody else on six months or something and we'd like combine all these people. Together to make the deal happen and we'd organize these like one off bespoke deals that looked like basically it ended up with us taking a bunch of customers, us signing with a vendor, taking some cut and then us operating the cluster for people typically with bare metal. And so we were doing this, but this was definitely like a oh, s**t, oh, s**t, oh, s**t. How do we get out of our current situation and less of a like a strategic plan of any sort? But while we were doing this, since like the beginning of the company, we had been thinking about how to buy GPU clusters, how to sell them effectively, because we'd seen every part of it. And what we ended up with was like a book of everybody who's trying to buy and everyone is trying to sell because we were these like GPU brokers. And so that turned into what is today SF Compute, which is a compute market, which we think we are the functionally the most liquid GPU market of any capacity. Honestly, I think we're the only thing that actually is like a real market that there's like bids and asks and there's like a like a trading engine that combines everything. And so. I think we're the only place where you can do things that a market should be able to do. Like you can go on SF Compute today and you get thousands of H100s for an hour if you want. And that's because there is a price for thousands of GPUs for an hour. That is like not a thing you can reasonably do on kind of any other cloud provider because nobody should realistically sell you thousands of GPUs for an hour. They should sell it to you for a year or so on. But one of the nice things about a market is that you can buy the year on SF Compute. But then if you need to sell. Back, you can sell back as well. And that opens up all these little pockets of liquidity where somebody who's just trying to buy for a little bit of time, some burst capacity. So people don't normally buy for an hour. That's not like actually a realistic thing, but it's like the range somebody who wants, who is like us, who needed to buy for a month can actually buy for a month. They can like place the order and there is actually a price for that. And it typically comes from somebody else who's selling back. Somebody who bought a longer term contract and is like they bought for some period of time, their code doesn't work, and now they need to like sell off a little bit.Alessio [00:25:49]: What are the utilization rates at which a market? What are the utilization rates at which a market? Like this works, what do you see the usual GPU utilization rate and like at what point does the market get saturated?Evan [00:26:00]: Assuming there are not like hardware problems or software problems, the utilization rate is like near 100 percent because the price dips until the utilization is 100 percent. So the price actually has to dip quite a lot in order for the utilization not to be. That's not always the case because you just have logistical problems like you get a cluster and parts of the InfiniBand fabric are broken. And there's like some issue with some switch somewhere and so you have to take some portion of the cluster offline or, you know, stuff like this, like there's just underlying physical realities of the clusters, but nominally we have better utilization than basically anybody because, but that's on utilization of the cluster, like that doesn't necessarily translate into, I mean, I actually do think we have much better overall money made for our underlying vendors than kind of anybody else. We work with the other GPU clouds and the basic pitch to the other GPU clouds is one. So we can sell your broker so we can we can find you the long term contracts that are at the prices that you want, but meanwhile, your cluster is idle and for that we can increase your utilization and get you more money because we can sell that idle cluster for you and then the moment we find the longer, the bigger customer and they come on, you can kick off those people and then go to the other ones. You get kind of the mix of like sell your cluster at whatever price you can get on the market and then sell your cluster at the big price that you want to do for long term contract, which is your ideal business model. And then the benefit of the whole thing being on the market. Is you can pitch your customer that they can cancel their long term contract, which is not a thing that you can reasonably do if you are just the GPU cloud, if you're just the GPU cloud, you can never cancel your contract, because that introduces so much risk that you would otherwise, like not get your cheap cost of capital or whatever. But if you're selling it through the market, or you're selling it with us, then you can say, hey, look, you can cancel for a fee. And that fee is the difference between the price of the market and then the price that they paid at, which means that they canceled and you have the ability to offer that flexibility. But you don't. You don't have to take the risk of it. The money's already there and like you got paid, but it's just being sold to somebody else. One of our top pieces from last year was talking about the H100 glut from all the long term contracts that were not being fully utilized and being put under the market. You have on here dollar a dollar per hour contracts as well as it goes up to two. Actually, I think you were involved. You were obliquely quoted in that article. I think you remember. I remember because this was hidden. Well, we hid your name, but then you were like, yeah, it's us. Yeah. Could you talk about the supply and demand of H100s? Was that just a normal cycle? Was that like a super cycle because of all the VC funding that went in in 2003? What was that like? GPU prices have come down. Yeah, GPU prices have come down. And there's some part that has normal depreciation cycle. Some part of that is just there were a lot of startups that bought GPUs and never used them. And now they're lending it out and therefore you exist. There's a lot of like various theories as to why. This happened. I dislike all of them because they're all kind of like they're often said with really high confidence. And I think just the market's much more complicated than that. Of course. And so everything I'm going to say is like very hedged. But there was a series of like places where a bunch of the orders were placed and people were pitching to their customers and their investors and just the broader market that they would arrive on time. And that is not how the world works. And because there was such a really quick build out of things, you would end up with bottlenecks in the supply chain somewhere that has nothing to do with necessarily the chip. It's like the InfiniBand cables or the NICs or like whatever. Or you need a bunch of like generators or you don't have data center space or like there's always some bottleneck somewhere else. And so a lot of the clusters didn't come online within the period of time. But then all the bottlenecks got sorted out and then they all came online all at the same time. So I think you saw a short. There was a shortage because supply chain hard. And then you saw a increase or like a glut because supply chain eventually figure itself out. And specifically people overordered in order to get the allocation that they wanted. Then they got the allocations and then they went under. Yeah, whatever. Right. There was just a lot of shenanigans. A caveat of this is every time you see somebody like overordered, there is this assumption that the problem was like the demand went down. I don't think that's the case at all. And so I want to clarify that. It definitely seems like a shortage. Like there's more demand for GPUs than there ever was. It's just that there was also more supply. So at the moment, I think there is still functionally a glut. But the difference that I think is happening is mostly the test time inference stuff that you just need way more chips for that than you did before. And so whenever you make a statement about the current market, people sort of take your words and then they assume that you're making a statement about the future market. And so if you say there's a glut now, people will continue to think there's a glut. But I think what is happening at the moment. My general prediction is that like by the winter, we will be back towards shortage. But then also, this very much depends on the rollout of future chips. And that comes with its own. I think I'm trying to give you like a good here's Evan's forecast. Okay. But I don't know if my forecast is right. You don't have to. Nobody is going to hold you to it. But like I think people want to know what's true and what's not. And there's a lot of vague speculations from people who are not that close to the market actually. And you are. I think I'm a closer. Close to the market, but also a vague speculator. Like I think there are a lot of really highly confident speculators and I am indeed a vague speculator. I think I have more information than a lot of other people. And this makes me more vague of a spectator because I feel less certain or less confident than I think a lot of other people do. The thing I do feel reasonably confident about saying is that the test time inference is probably going to quite significantly expand the amount of compute that was used for inference. So a caveat. This is like pretty much all the inference demand is in a few companies. A good example is like lots of bio and pharma was using H100s training sort of the bio models of sorts. And they would come along and they would buy, you know, thousands of H100s for training and then just like not a lot of stuff for inference. Not in any, not relative to like an opening iron anthropic or something because they like don't have a consumer product. Their inference event, if they can do it right. There's really like only one inference event that matters. And obviously I think they're going to run into it. And Batch and they're not going to literally just run one inference event. But like the one that produces the drug is the important one. Right. And I'm dumb and I don't know anything about biology, so I could be completely wrong here. But my understanding is that's kind of the gist. I can check that for you. You can check that for me. Check that for me. But my understanding is like the one that produces the sequence that is the drug that, you know, cures cancer or whatever. That's the important deal. But like a lot of models look like this where they're sort of more enterprising use cases or they're so prior to something that looks like test time inference. You got lots and lots of demand for training and then pretty much entirely fell off for inference. And I think like we looked at like Open Router, for example, the entirety of Open Router that was not anthropic or like Gemini or OpenAI or something. It was like 10 H100 nodes or something like that. It's just like not that much. It's like not that many GPUs actually to service that entire demand. But that's like a really sizable portion of the sort of open source market. But the actual amount of compute needed for it was not that much. But if you imagine like what an OpenAI needs for like GPT-4, it's like tremendously big. But that's because it's a consumer product that has almost all the inference demand. Yeah, that's a message we've had. Roughly open source AI compared to closed AI is like 5%. Yeah, it's like super small. Super small. It's super small. Super small. But test time inference changes that quite significantly. So I will... I will expect that to increase our overall demand. But my question on whether or not that actually affects your compute price is entirely based on how quickly do we roll out the next chips. The way that you burst is different for test time.Alessio [00:34:01]: Any thoughts on the third part of the market, which is the more peer-to-peer distributed, some are like crypto-enabled, like Hyperbolic, Prime Intellect, and all of that. Where do those fit? Like, do you see a lot of people will want to participate in a peer-to-peer market? Or just because of the capital requirements at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter?Evan [00:34:20]: I'm like wildly skeptical of these, to be frankly. The dream is like steady at home, right? I got this $15.90. Nobody has $15.90. $14.90 sitting at home. I can rent it out. Yeah. Like, I just don't really think this is going to ever be more efficient than a fully interconnected cluster with InfiniBand or, you know, whatever the sort of next spec might be. Like, I could be completely wrong. But speaking of... I mean, like, SpeedoLite is really hard to beat. And regardless of whatever you're using, you just like can't get around that physical limitation. And so you could like imagine a decentralized market that still has a lot of places where there's like co-location. But then you would get something that looks like SF Compute. And so that's what we do. That's why we take our general take is like on SF Compute, you're not buying from like random people. You're buying from the other GPU clouds, functionally. You're buying from data centers that are the same genre of people that you would work with already. And you can specify, oh, I want all these nodes to be co-located. And I don't think you're really going to get around that. And I think I buy crypto for the purposes of like transferring money. Like the financial system is like quite painful and so on. I can understand the uses of it to sort of incentivize an initial market or try to get around the cold start problem. We've been able to get around the cold start problem just fine. So it didn't actually need that at all. What I do think is totally possible is you could launch a token and then you could like subsidize the crypto. You could compute prices for a bit, but like maybe that will help you. I think that's what Nuus is doing. Yeah, I think there's lots of people who are trying to do things like this, but at some point that runs out. So I would, I think generally agree. I think the only thread in that model is very fine grained mixture of experts that can be like algorithms can shift to adapt to hardware realities. And the hardware reality is like, okay, it's annoying to do large co-located clusters. Then we'll just redesign attention or whatever in our architecture to distribute it more. There was a little bit buzz of block attention last year that Strong Compute made a big push on. But I think like, you know, in a world where we have 200 experts in MOE model, it starts to be a little bit better. Like, I don't disagree with this. I can imagine the world in which you have like, in which you've redesigned it to be more parallelizable, like across space.Evan [00:36:43]: But assuming without that, your hardware limitation is your speed of light limitation. And that's a very hard one to get around.Alessio [00:36:50]: Any customers or like stories that you want to shout out of like maybe things that wouldn't have been economically viable like others? I know there's some sensitivity on that.Evan [00:37:00]: My favorites are grad students, are folks who are trying to do things that would normally otherwise require the scale of a big lab. And the grad students are like the worst pilots. They're like the worst possible customer for the traditional GPU clouds because they will immediately turn if you sell them a thing because they're going to graduate and they're not going to go anywhere. They're not going to like, that project isn't continuing to spend lots of money. Like sometimes it does, but not if you're like working with the university or you're working with the lab of some sort. But a lot of times it's just like the ability for us to offer like big burst capacity, I think is lovely and wonderful. And it's like one of my favorite things to do because all those folks look like we did. And I have a special place in my heart for that. I have a special place in my heart for young hackers and young grad students and researchers who are trying to do the same genre of thing that we are doing. For the same reason, I have a special place in my heart for like the startups, the people who are just actively trying to compete on the same scale, but can't afford it time-wise, but can afford it spike-wise. Yeah, I liked your example of like, I have a grant of 100K and it's expiring. I got to spend it on that. That's really beautiful. Yeah. Interesting. Has there been interesting work coming out of that? Anything you want to mention? Yeah. So from like a startup perspective, like Standard Intelligence and Find, P-H-I-N-D. We've had them on the pod.Swyx [00:38:23]: Yeah. Yeah.Evan [00:38:23]: That was great. And then from grad students' perspective, we worked a lot with like the Schmidt Futures grantees of various sorts. My fear is if I talk about their research, I will be completely wrong to a sort of almost insulting degree because I am very dumb. But yeah. I think one thing that's maybe also relevant startups and GPUs-wise. Yeah. Is there was a brief moment where it kind of made sense that VCs provided GPU clusters. And obviously you worked at AI Grants, which set up Andromeda, which is supposedly a $100 million cluster. Yeah. I can explain why that's the case or why anybody would think that would be smart. Because I remember before any of that happened, we were asking for it to happen. Yeah. And the general reason is credit risk. Again, it's a bank. Yeah. I have lower risk than you due to credit transformation. I take your risk onto my balance sheet. Correct. Exactly. If you wanted to go for a while, if you wanted to go set up a GPU cluster, you had to be the one that actually bought the hardware and racked it and stacked it, like co-located it somewhere with someone. Functionally, it was like on your balance sheet, which means you had to get a loan. And you cannot get a loan for like $50 million as a startup. Like not really. You can get like venture debt and stuff, but like it's like very, very difficult to get a loan of any serious price for that. But it's like not that difficult to get a loan for $50 million. If you already have a fund or you already have like a million dollars under your assets somewhere or like you personally can like do a personal guarantee for it or something like this. If you have a lot of money, it is way easier for you to get a loan than if you don't have a lot of money. And so the hack of a VC or some capital partner offering equity for compute is always some arbitrage on the credit risk. That's amazing. Yeah. That's a hack. You should do that. I don't think people should do it right now. I think the market has like, I think it made sense at the time and it was helpful and useful for the people who did it at the time. But I think it was a one-time arbitrage because now there are lots of other sources that can do it. And also I think like it made sense when no one else was doing it and you were the only person who was doing it. But now it's like it's an arbitrage that gets competed down. Sure. So it's like super effective. I wouldn't totally recommend it. Like it's great that Andromeda did it. But the marginal increase of somebody else doing it is like not super helpful. I don't think that many people have followed in their footsteps. I think maybe Andreessen did it. Yeah. That's it. I think just because pretty much all the value like flows through Andromeda. What? That cannot be true. How many companies are in the air, Grant? Like 50? My understanding of Andromeda is it works with all the NFTG companies or like several of the NFTG companies. But I might be wrong about that. Again, you know, something something. Nat, don't kill me. I could be completely wrong. But the but you know, I think Andromeda was like an excellent idea to do at the right time in which it occurred. Perfect. His timing is impeccable. Timing. Yeah. Nat and Daniel are like, I mean, there's lots of people who are like... Sears? Yeah. Sears. Like S-E-E-R. Oh, Sears. Like Sears of the Valley. Yeah. They for years and years before any of the like ChatGPT moment or anything, they had fully understood what was going to happen. Like way, way before. Like. AI Grant is like, like five years old, six years old or something like that. Seven years old. When I, when it like first launched or something. Depends where you start. The nonprofit version. Yeah. The nonprofit version was like, like happening for a while, I think. It's going on for quite a bit of time. And then like Nat and Daniel are like the early investors in a lot of the sort of early AI labs of various sorts. They've been doing this for a bit.Alessio [00:41:58]: I was looking at your pricing yesterday. We're kind of talking about it before. And there's this weird thing where one week is more expensive of both one day and one month. Yeah. What are like some of the market pricing dynamics? What are things that like this to somebody that is not in the business? This looks really weird. But I'm curious, like if you have an explanation for it, if that looks normal to you. Yeah.Evan [00:42:18]: So the simple answer is preemptible pricing is cheaper than non-preemptible pricing. And the same economic principle is the reason why that's the case right now. That's not entirely true on SF Compute. SF Compute doesn't really have the concept of preemptible. Instead, what it has is very short reservations. So, you know, you go to a traditional cloud provider and you can say, hey, I want to reserve contract for a year. We will let you do a reserve contract for one hour, which is the part of SFC. But what you can do is you can just buy every single hour continuously. And you're reserving just for that hour. And then the next hour you reserve just for that next hour. And this is obviously like a built in. This is like an automation that you can do. But what you're seeing when you see the cheap price is you're seeing somebody who's buying the next hour, but maybe not necessarily buying an hour after that. So if the price goes up. Up too much. They might not get that next hour. And the underlying part of this of where that's coming from the market is you can imagine like day old milk or like milk that's about to be old. It might drop its price until it's expired because nobody wants to buy the milk that's in the past. Or maybe you can't legally sell it. Compute is the same way. No, you can't sell a block of compute that is not that is in the past. And so what you should do in the market and what people do do is they take. They take a block. A block of compute. And then they drop it and drop it and drop it and drop into a floor price right before it's about to expire. And they keep dropping it until it clears. And so anything that is idle drops until some point. So if you go and use on the website and you set that that chart to like a week from now, what you'll see is much more normal looking sort of curves. But if you say, oh, I want to start right now, that immediate instant, here's the compute that I want right now is the is functionally the preemptible price. It's where most people are getting the best compute or like the best compute prices from. The caveat of that is you can do really fun stuff on SFC if you want. So because it's not actually preemptible, it's it's reserved, but only reserved for an hour, which means that the optimal way to use as of compute is to just buy on the market price, but set a limit price that is much higher. So you can set a limit price for like four dollars and say, oh, if the market ever happens to spike up to four dollars, then don't buy. I don't want to buy that at that price for that price. I don't want to buy that at that price for that price for an hour. But otherwise, just buy at the cheapest price. And if you're comfortable with that of the volatility of it, you're actually going to get like really good prices, like close to a dollar an hour or so on, sometimes down to like 80 cents or whatever. You said four, though. Yeah. So that's the thing. You want to lower the limit. So four is your max price. Four is like where you basically want to like pull the plug and say don't do it because the actual average price is not or like the, you know, the preemptible price doesn't actually look like that. So what you're doing when you're saying four is always, always, always give me this compute. Like continue to buy every hour. Don't preempt me. Don't kick me off. And I want this compute and just buy at the preemptible price, but never kick me off. The only times in which you get kicked off is if there is a big price spike. And, you know, let's say one day out of the year, there's like a four dollar an hour price because of some weird fluke or something. If there are other periods of time, you're actually getting a much lower price than you. It makes sense. Your your average cost that you're actually paying is way better. And your trade off here is you don't literally know what price you're going to get. So it's volatile. But your actual average historically has been like everyone who's done this has gotten wildly better prices. And this is like one of the clever things you can do with the market. If you're willing to make those trade offs, you can get a lot of really good prices. You can also do other things like you can only buy at night, for example. So the price goes down at night. And so you can say, oh, I want to only buy, you know, if the price is lower than 90 cents. And so if you have some long running job, you can make it only run on 90 cents and then you recover back and so on. Yeah. So what you can kind of create as like a spot inst is what other the CPU world has. Yes. But you've created a system where you can kind of manufacture the exact profile that you want. Exactly. That is not just whatever the hyperscalers offer you, which is usually just one thing. Correct. SF Compute is like the power tool. The underlying primitives of like hourly compute is there. Correct. Yeah, it's pretty interesting. I've often asked OpenAI. So like, you know, all these guys. Cloud as well. They do batch APIs. So it's half off of whatever your thing is. Yeah. And the only contract is we'll return in 24 hours. Sure. Right. And I was like, 24 hours is good. But sometimes I want one hour. I want four hours. I want something. And so based off of SF Compute's system, you can actually kind of create that kind of guarantee. Totally. That would be like, you know, not 24, but within eight hours, within four hours, like the work half of a workday. Yes. I can return your results to you. And then I can return it to you. And if your latency requirements are like that low, actually it's fine. Yes. Correct. Yeah. You can carve out that. You can financially engineer that on SFC. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think to me that unlocks a lot of agent use cases that I want, which is like, yeah, I worked in a background, but I don't want you to take a day. Yeah. Correct. Take a couple hours or something. Yeah. This touches a lot of my like background because I used to be a derivatives trader. Yeah. And this is a forward market. Yeah. A futures forward market, whatever you call it. Not a future. Very explicitly not a future. Not yet a futures. Yes. But I don't know if you have any other points to talk about. So you recognize that you are a, you know, a marketplace and you've hired, I met Alex Epstein at your launch event and you're like, you're, you're building out the financialization of GPUs. Yeah. So part of that's legal. Mm-hmm. Totally. Part of that is like listing on an exchange. Yep. Maybe you're the exchange. I don't know how that works, but just like, talk to me about that. Like from the legal, the standardization, the like, where is this all headed? You know, is this like a full listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or whatever? What we're trying to do is create an underlying spot market that gives you an index price that you can use. And then with that index price, you can create a cash settled future. And with a cash settled future, you can go back to the data centers and you can say, lock in your price now and de-risk your entire position, which lets you get cheaper cost of capital and so on. And that we think will improve the entire industry because the marginal cost of compute is the risk. It's risk as shown by that graph and basically every part of this conversation. It's risk that causes the price to be all sorts of funky. And we think a future is the correct solution to this. So that's the eventual goal. Right now you have to make the underlying spot market in order to make this occur. And then to make the spot market work, you actually have to solve a lot of technology problems. You really cannot make a spot market work if you don't run the clusters, if you don't have control over them, if you don't know how to audit them, because these are super computers, not soybeans. They have to work. In a way that like, it's just a lot simpler to deliver a soybean than it is to deliver it. I don't know. Talk to the soybean guys. Sure. You know? Yeah. But you have to have a delivery mechanism. Your delivery mechanism, like somebody somewhere has to actually get the compute at some point and it actually has to work. And it is really complicated. And so that is the other part of our business that we go and we build a bare metal infrastructure stack that goes. And then also we do auditing of all the clusters. You sort of de-risk the technical perspective and that allows you to eventually de-risk the financial perspective. And that is kind of the pitch of SF Compute. Yeah. I'll double click on the auditing on the clusters. This is something I've had conversations with Vitae on. He started Rika and I think he had a blog post which kind of shone the light a little bit on how unreliable some clusters are versus others. Correct. Yeah. And sometimes you kind of have to season them and age them a little bit to find the bad cards. You have to burn them in. Yeah. So what do you do to audit them? There's like a burn-in process, a suite of tests, and then active checking and passive checking. Burn-in process is where you typically run LINPACK. LINPACK is this thing that like a bunch of linear algebra equations that you're stress testing the GPUs. This is a proprietary thing that you wrote? No, no, no. LINPACK is like the most common form of burn-in. If you just type in burn-in, typically when people say burn-in, they literally just mean LINPACK. It's like an NVIDIA reference version of this. Again, NVIDIA could run this before they ship, but now the customers have to do it. It's annoying. You're not just checking for the GPU itself. You're checking like the whole component, all the hardware. And it's a lot of work. It's an integration test. It's an integration test. Yeah. So what you're doing when you're running LINPACK or burn-in in general is you're stress testing the GPUs for some period of time, 48 hours, for example, maybe seven days or so on. And you're just trying to kill all the dead GPUs or any components in the system that are broken. And we've had experiences where we ran LINPACK on a cluster and it rounds out, sort of comes offline when you run LINPACK. This is a pretty good sign that maybe there is a problem with this cluster. Yeah. So LINPACK is like the most common sort of standard test. But then beyond that, what you do is we have like a series of performance tests that replicate a much more realistic environment as well that we run just assuming if LINPACK works at all, then you run the next set of tests. And then while the GPUs are in operation, you're also going through and you're doing active tests and passive tests. Passive tests are things that are running in the background while somebody else is running, while like some other workload is running. And active tests are during like idle periods. You're running some sort of check that would otherwise sort of interrupt something. And then the active tests will take something offline, basically. Or a passive check might mark it to get taken offline later and so on. And then the thing that we are working on that we have working partially but not entirely is automated refunds, which is basically like, is the case that the hardware breaks so much. And there's only so much that we can do and it is the effect of pretty much the entire industry. So a pretty common thing that I think happens to kind of everybody in the space is a customer comes online, they experience your cluster, and your cluster has the same problem that like any cluster has, or it's I mean, a different problem every time, but they experience one of the problems of HPC. And then their experience is bad. And you have to like negotiate a refund or some other thing like this. It's always case by case. And like, yeah, a lot of people just eat the cost. Correct. So one of the nice things about a market that we can do as we get bigger and have been doing as we can bigger is we can immediately give you something else. And then also we can automatically refund you. And you're still gonna experience it like the hardware problems aren't going away until the underlying vendors fix things. But honestly, I don't think that's likely because you're always pushing the limits of HPC. This is the case of trying to build a supercomputer. that's one of the nice things that we can do is we can switch you out for somebody else somewhere, and then automatically refund you or prorate or whatever the correct move is. One of the things that you say in this conversation with me was like, you know, you know, a provider is good when they guarantee automatic refunds. Which doesn't happen. But yeah, that's, that's in our contact with all the underlying cloud providers. You built it in already. Yeah. So we have a quite strict SLA that we pass on to you. The reason why

Terminamos con la serie de tres vídeos para desentrañar las causas y cosecuencias de la Gran Recesión. En este tercer análisis, reflexionamos sobre las políticas keynesianas con las que los Estados trataron de reflotar la economía.✍️ Este vídeo está apadrinado por Mintos. En esta plataforma, puedes invertir en el mercado de préstamos (titulizaciones) desde tan sólo 50 euros. Infórmate en: https://bit.ly/Mintos_Rallo_M25Al registrarse con el código GO-RALLO, podrán ganar entre €25 y €200 al ivertir a partir de €1500 hasta el 31 de marzo (sujeto a condiciones). Disclaimer: El contenido de este Canal de YouTube tiene fines únicamente educativos y en ningún caso suponen recomendaciones de inversión o asesoramiento financiero. Hazte miembro en: https://plus.acast.com/s/juanrallo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Seguimos con la serie de tres vídeos para desentrañar las causas de la Gran Recesión. En este segundo análisis, reflexionamos sobre las razones que provocaron la quiebra del sistema financiero global.✍️ Este vídeo está apadrinado por Mintos. En esta plataforma, puedes invertir en el mercado de préstamos (titulizaciones) desde tan sólo 50 euros. Infórmate en: https://bit.ly/Mintos_Rallo_F25Disclaimer: El contenido de este Canal de YouTube tiene fines únicamente educativos y en ningún caso suponen recomendaciones de inversión o asesoramiento financiero. Hazte miembro en: https://plus.acast.com/s/juanrallo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A new book posits that the roots of the rise in crime in East New York, Brooklyn, can be linked directly to a subprime mortgage scandal decades earlier. Author Stacy Horn discusses her new book, The Killing Fields of East New York: The First Subprime Mortgage Scandal, a White-Collar Crime Spree, and the Collapse of an American Neighborhood.This segment is guest-hosted by Tiffany Hansen.

In this episode, we start by discussing the Bank of Canada's final rate announcement of the year. Will it be another 50bps cut, or will they ease up with just 25bps? We break down the economic data driving each case, including GDP contractions, inflation surprises, and the impact on the Canadian dollar. We also discuss Scotiabank's fourth-quarter results—what went wrong with their targets, where they're showing stability, and why provisions and write-offs are key metrics to watch. Plus, we analyze Intel's CEO “retirement,” its struggle to regain dominance in chip manufacturing. Finally, we touch on Goeasy and Affirm Holdings' latest results, exploring what their growth and delinquency data reveal about the health of Canadian and global consumers.  Tickers of stock discussed: GSY.TO, BNS.TO, AFRM, INTC Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon's twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden's twitter: @BradoCapital Dan's Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Sign up for Finchat.io for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.