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India's smartphone market could triple in size over the next decade, putting it behind only the U.S. and China.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Hardware Analyst. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today, I'll discuss our outlook for the India smartphone market. It's Monday, July 24th at 10 a.m. in New York. We're making a bold call for India's smartphone market. We believe it will triple in size over the next decade to $90 billion and account for 15% of global smartphone shipments by 2032, up from just 6% today. That implies that India alone will drive 100% of global smartphone shipment growth over the next decade. India has the largest worldwide population, but smartphone penetration is significantly lower versus the rest of the world. For the last two decades, investors have been intrigued by the vast growth potential of the India smartphone market. But so far, investor expectations have not played out, as smartphone penetration in India has failed to surpass 40% versus the global average of 60%. And growth in the India smartphone market has been overwhelmingly driven by low end devices, with razor thin margins for original equipment manufacturers or OEMs. In fact, the smartphone TAM or total addressable market is just 25% the size of China, despite a similarly sized population. But we think the next decade will be different - it will be India's decade. Besides forecasting annual GDP growth of 6.5% for the next decade, our India Strategy and Economics colleagues believe that over the next decade, domestic consumption in India will more than double - driven by a number of important factors, including widespread economic reforms. These efforts are expected to bring meaningful demographic change, with income per capita expected to double, and the number of high income households expected to quintuple over the next decade. Alongside nearly 100% electrification of the country and a government led effort to prioritize digital transformation, we expect strong demand for technology goods to emerge over the next decade. We see these factors as setting the stage for robust smartphone growth in India. A recent AlphaWise smartphone survey of Indian consumers confirmed these trends, with three in four survey respondents acknowledging they are likely to purchase a new smartphone in the next 12 months, in line with other leading emerging markets. In fact, some respondents acknowledged they are more likely to own a smartphone over other household items such as a PC, car or refrigerator. Furthermore, Indian consumers are willing to pay up to 20% more for their next smartphone to gain access to premium technologies such as 5G compatibility, longer battery life, better camera quality and more storage capacity. While it's still early days, we believe these survey results illustrate the growing importance of the smartphone in India and the rising potential for the Indian smartphone market. When we take a step back, the two most important factors underpinning our $90 billion India smartphone TAM are growing smartphone penetration and positive mix shift, meaning customers are shifting their purchases to higher end devices. We estimate that in a decade, Indian smartphone penetration will reach 60%, the global average today. Furthermore, we estimate that over the next decade, 80% of India's smartphone market growth will come from smartphones priced in excess of $250, which have only accounted for about 10% of smartphone growth in India over the last five years. Combined, we believe these factors will drive a 11% annual smartphone market growth in India over the next decade, allowing India to become the third largest smartphone market in the world at $90 billion, trailing just China and the United States. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Brad Lynch has described his SadlyItsBradly YouTube channel as a speculation and prediction channel focusing on the next generation VR hardware, and it has been providing some of the most insightful and detailed VR hardware analysis in the XR industry. Lynch has been fusing together patent research, sources from the supply chain and wider XR industry, expert interviews, data mining techniques of import records and decompiled software updates to discover clues about future hardware, and in some cases leaks of CAD drawings for the Meta Quest Pro (1 2 3 4) and Quest 3. I had a chance to do an interview with him a year ago to understand more about his journey into doing this unique blend of hardware analysis, YouTube commentary, and independent reporting. In the past year he's proven himself to have cultivated some amazing insider sources and consistently break news about the latest hardware developments. This post will summarize some of his reporting over the past year (with a full timeline down below), and set a broader context for my October 2021 interview with him. Brad Lynch (aka SadlyItsBradley) got 17 out of 23 predictions on Meta Quest Pro confirmed to be correct. The fact that Lynch got 17 out of 23 of his Meta Quest Pro predictions explicitly confirmed to be correct during Meta Connect made me want to dig up this more speculative conversation that I had with him nearly a year ago now. I interviewed Lynch on October 22, 2021, which was 3 weeks after October 1, 2021 where he summarized 6 months of research and reporting on Valve's Deckard, the standalone VR headset Lynch claimed was in development at Valve that was then independently validated by Ars Technica. On September 28, 2021 reporter Sam Machkovech got confirmation from Valve that Lynch was on the right track with an anonymous quote saying, "Sources familiar with matters at Valve have confirmed to Ars that information in the wild is legitimate—at least in terms of products being made within Valve's headquarters, even if those products don't ultimately see retail launches." In other words, there's no guarantee the Valve Deckard standalone VR headset will ever see the light of day, but Lynch's reporting catalyzed a tacit confirmation that they are indeed prototyping next-generation, standalone VR hardware. Valve News Network's Tyler McVicker tipped me off to a Steam Dev Days 2014 talk by Robin Walker where he talked about how Valve will deliberately let certain information leak for fans like Lynch to piece together in a sort of alternative reality game, in order to build grassroots buzz but also get feedback from their fans. I wanted to hear a bit more about Lynch's journey into doing this type of speculative VR hardware analysis, and my October 2021 interview with him covers his journey into do these types of predictions. But because of the speculative and predictive nature of these work, then many of the things we talked about a year ago have not fully come to pass -- but yet at the same time are still totally relevant today. This includes the future of micro OLEDs and micro LEDS display technologies, new types of varifocal and pancake lenses, the next generation modular VR HMD designs, and the types of XR hardware trends that Lynch has been seeing across all of the major XR hardware producers. Lynch has been a big advocate for the importance of OLED microdisplays (μOLED) are predicts that they are going to figure prominently in the next phase of VR hardware as it decouples from smartphone-based screen components. After the recording of my interview, he went on to interview the eMagin CEO on OLED Microdisplays, scouted out the MeganeX HDR 5.2K microOLED at CES 2022, recapped the Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) VR/AR Display Forum, and attended the Society for Information Display (SID) Displayweek Conference with a full livestream breakdown. Valve still hasn't officially announced anything around the Deckard over the past y...
Maya Winkelstein, CEO of Open Road Alliance, discusses impact investing. Jason Pride, CIO of Private Wealth at Glenmede, talks markets and inflation. Anurag Rana, Senior Software & IT Services Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the Intuit, Mailchimp deal. Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, previews Apple's latest event. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Som Seif, CEO of Purpose Investments, on the Purpose Bitcoin ETF--the world's first bitcoin ETF--crossing $1 billion in assets after one month. Joe Nocera, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, on his column: “Unions Are Back in Favor. They Need to Seize Moment.” Ben Emons, Managing Director, Global Macro Strategy, Medley Advisors, previews what to expect from the lawmaker hearings this week with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jay Powell. Vincent Cignarella, Global Macro Strategist for Bloomberg, and Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst, on why the chip shortage may be the inflation trigger. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.
Today we talk with Matt Bach, Senior Labs Technician. Matt works as a hardware analyst where he researches, tests, and develops hardware solutions tailored specifically for content creation software packages. This is not limited just to hardware and software performance benchmarks, but also includes working closely with the professional community to ensure that our workstations properly address the real-world pain points of users. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/puget-systems/message
Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Morgan Stanley's direct indexing play, and Vanguard returning $21 billion in assets to China accounts. Tom McGee, President and Chief Executive Officer of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), with their holiday shopping forecast. Lauren Sauer, Johns Hopkins University Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, on Trump's return to public events while infected with covid-19. Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on AMD in talks to buy rival Xilinx in a $30 billion deal. Eric Kazatsky, Senior U.S. Municipals Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence: Illinois taps Fed funds, and stimulus still up in the air. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.
Howard Yu, LEGO professor of management and innovation at the IMD Business School in Switzerland, discusses why the Oracle-TikTok deal spotlights the challenge for multinationals to appease governments. Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Nvidia buying Softbank’s chip division Arm for $40 billion. Doug Borthwick, Chief Marketing Officer and Head of Business Development at INX, on how their new exchange will allow 24/7 trading of equities. Peter Kenny, founder of Kenny's Commentary and Strategic Board Solutions, on merger mania, and why it's time to get defensive ahead of the election. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.
Timothy O'Brien, Senior Columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, on Trump's attacks to derail the U.S. Post Office. Nick Colas, co-Founder of DataTrek Research, on what's driving equity markets, and risks from the election. Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on the glaring divergence between AMD and Intel. Ted Koenig, President and CEO of Monroe Capital, on the PE landscape and private lending, as capital becomes scarce for small businesses. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.
Christine Todd, Senior Managing Director & Head of U.S. Fixed Income at Amundi Pioneer, discusses how she's playing the sell-off. Ben Holland, Political economy editor for Bloomberg, on how the bond market is saying Bernie Sanders' numbers don’t need to add up. Austin Carr, Bloomberg technology reporter, and Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss Xerox and HP's $35 billion fight over ink cartridges. Rice University health care economist Vivian Ho, Chair in Health Economics at the Baker Institute, and Director at the Center for Health and Biosciences, discusses the economics and U.S. preparedness for the coronavirus. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.
Noah Feldman, Harvard Law professor and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, on the impeachment of President Trump, and his testimony to Congress. Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on China pushing for more removal of foreign tech. Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist of London-based Pictet Asset Management, on his 2020 market forecast and why EM is the best opportunity. Regina Mayor, Global Energy Head at KPMG, on why she's in a bearish mood on crude. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.
"Banker to the World" Bill Rhodes, President and CEO of William Rhodes Global Advisors, on Argentina and Venezuela. Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, previews Intel and discusses the rally in semiconductor stocks. David Kudla, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist at Mainstay Capital Management, on Ford and Tesla. Brian Chappatta, Bloomberg Opinion debt columnist, discusses why the Fed should buy muni bonds in the next recession.
Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on the Qualcomm-Apple settlement and what it means for chip stocks. Doug Duncan, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, on the spring buying season, outlook for mortgage rates, and consumer attitudes on housing. Tuna Amobi, CFRA Research's media and entertainment analyst, on Netflix and big media earnings. Jitendra Waral, Senior Analyst: Internet & Consumer Products for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Pinterest's IPO. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on the Qualcomm-Apple settlement and what it means for chip stocks. Doug Duncan, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, on the spring buying season, outlook for mortgage rates, and consumer attitudes on housing. Tuna Amobi, CFRA Research’s media and entertainment analyst, on Netflix and big media earnings. Jitendra Waral, Senior Analyst: Internet & Consumer Products for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Pinterest's IPO.
Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at KPMG, on GDP numbers, the Fed and economic outlook. David Garrity, Chief Market Strategist for Laidlaw & Co. LTD, on Google and Amazon earnings, and the tech sector fallout. Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on the chip sector, and how the big names compare: Intel, AMD, Western Digital. Max Nisen, Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering health care, on why Trump's new drug pricing plan has real teeth.
Guests: Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co. and Bloomberg View Prophet and columnist, on markets, commodities and current investment themes.Brendan Ahern, CIO of KraneShares, on China, tariffs, and current China investment strategies.Erin Browne, head of asset allocation at UBS Asset Management, discusses markets and current allocation strategy, trade war impact, and currencies outlook.George Kurian, CEO of NetApp, and Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on the company’s financials and outlook, and keeping data safe in the cloud.
Alejandro Werner, Director: Western Hemisphere at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on the economic outlook for Latin America. Vincent Cignarella, Global Macro Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the Bank of Japan, and the dollar following Trump's comments in Davos. Ben Bain, financial regulations reporter for Bloomberg, on Trump’s SEC mulling a move to block investor lawsuits. Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Dell's potential IPO and Intel earnings.
(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on HP Inc.'s earnings and guidance.
(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Intel and Qualcomm earnnings.
(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on SoftBank Group agreeing to buy ARM Holdings for 24.3 billion pounds ($32 billion).