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Global Policy Watch: Much Ado About De-dollarisationReflections on global policy issues— RSJThis week, Donald Trump urged Republican lawmakers to let the U.S. default on its debt if the Democrats don't agree on massive budget cuts. Trump likened the people running the U.S. treasury to ‘drunken sailors', an epithet I can get behind. Default is not something Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, can even begin to imagine. As CNBC reported, Yellen chose strong words to express her views if the debt ceiling was not raised by the House:“The notion of defaulting on our debt is something that would so badly undermine the U.S. and global economy that I think it should be regarded by everyone as unthinkable,” she told reporters. “America should never default.”When asked about steps the Biden administration could take in the wake of a default, Yellen emphasized that lawmakers must raise the debt ceiling.“There is no good alternative that will save us from catastrophe. I don't want to get into ranking which bad alternative is better than others, but the only reasonable thing is to raise the debt ceiling and to avoid the dreadful consequences that will come,” she told reporters, noting that defaulting on debt can be prevented.There is more than a grain of truth there in some of her apparent hyperbole. The U.S. hegemony in the global financial system runs on trust that they won't default on their debt. Take that trust out of the equation, and what have you got left? This is somewhat more salient in these times when there's a talk of de-dollarisation going around. Russia and China have been keen to trade in their own currencies between themselves and other partners who are amenable to this idea. And they have found some traction in this idea from other countries who aren't exactly bit players in the global economy. In March this year, the yuan overtook the dollar in being the predominant currency used for cross-border transactions in China. Here's a quick run-through of what different countries have been doing to reduce their dollar dependence. Russia and Saudi Arabia are using yuan to settle payments for gas and oil trade. Russia offloaded a lot of US dollars in its foreign reserves before the start of the war and replaced it with gold and yuan. It will possibly continue building yuan reserves in future. Brazil is already doing trade settlements in yuan and is also using the CIPS (China's response to US-dominated SWIFT) for international financial messaging services. Argentina and Thailand seem to be also doing more of their trade with China in yuan. And I'm not including the likes of Pakistan, Bangladesh and other smaller economies that have politically or economically tied themselves up with China and are following suit. And a few weeks back, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, also raised the issue of strategic autonomy of the EU after his visit to Beijing. As Politico reported:Macron also argued that Europe had increased its dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy and must now focus on boosting European defense industries. He also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar,” a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing. “If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won't have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals,” he said.You get the picture. This idea of de-dollarisation seems to be gaining traction. How real is this possibility? There are possibly three lenses to look at this issue, and we will cover them in this edition.Why the recent hate for the dollar?A useful area to start with is to understand where this desire to find alternatives to the dollar is emerging. I mean, it is obvious why Russia and China are doing it and the way the U.S. used its dominance over the financial system to shut out Russia. Companies were barred from trading with Russia, Russian banks couldn't access SWIFT and networks like Visa and Mastercard stopped their operations. Russia got the message but so did other large economies that didn't think of themselves firmly in the U.S. camp. ‘What if' questions began circulating among policymakers there. What if, in future, a somewhat unpredictable U.S. president decides to do this to us? And once you start building these scenarios, you soon realise the extent of dependence the global financial system has on not just the dollar but, beyond it, to the infrastructure and rules of the game developed by the U.S. corporations. There's been a measured retreat ever since. In India, a visible example of this has been the push toward Rupay by the regulator and the government in lieu of Visa and Mastercard. But merely looking at the U.S. response to Russia as the reason would be missing the longer-term trend. In his book ‘Bucking the Buck', Daniel McDowell shows data on the annual number of executive orders that instruct the US Treasury to enforce financial sanctions against specially designated nationals (SDNs). These were rarities in the 70s. By the early 2000s, such annual orders were in their low twenties and in the last few years, they have reached the three-figure mark. It is clear that the U.S. is using its enormous clout as the owner of the global reserve currency and financial infrastructure to punish those who fall out of line. This is war by other means. Interestingly, this ‘sanctions happy' behaviour in the last decade coincided with a wave of populist leaders coming into power in many countries who would not like to be seen as weak or held to ransom by the U.S. This has meant these states have used strategic autonomy as a plank to pursue their interests to go around the U.S. built system. I don't see this trend abating any time soon. The future U.S. administrations will continue to use financial coercion as a tool because it appears bloodless, and the larger economies will continue freeing themselves from this hegemony one system at a time. The tough and fortuitous road to becoming a reserve currencyBut does that mean we will eventually end up with de-dollarisation? Well, there are two things to appreciate here. How does a currency become a reserve currency? How did the dollar become one? And once it does, what keeps it there? If you go back a little over a hundred years, most countries in the world pegged their currencies to gold as a means of facilitating cross-border trade and stabilising currencies. But during World War 1, it became difficult for these countries to fund their war expenses without printing paper money and devaluing their currencies. Britain continued adhering to the gold standard, but it was difficult for it to sustain its war efforts too. It had to borrow to run its expenses during and after WWI. Between the two wars, the U.S. became a huge exporter of goods and armament to the rest of the world, and it took the payment in gold. By the time World War 2 was ending, the U.S. had hoarded most of the world's gold, which made going back to the gold standard impossible because other countries just didn't have any gold. When the allied nations met at Bretton Woods to discuss the new financial world order after the war, it became quite clear that the only real option of managing a foreign exchange system was one that would have all other currencies pegged to the dollar, which would then be linked to gold. It is important to understand that there was no specific effort made to replace Pound as the international reserve currency. It just became inevitable, given the mix of circumstances. Around the same time and for a decade after, the U.S. led the post-war reconstruction efforts in Western Europe and Japan, which gave it a political clout that was unmatched. This political dominance, along with the remnants of the Bretton Woods agreement, is what runs the global currency system in our times, though, in the 70s, the U.S. delinked the dollar from gold as well. That led to the floating exchange rates system that exists today and the dollarisation of the global economy. Over time countries learnt to accumulate their foreign exchange reserves in dollars by buying U.S. treasury bills. Together with the IMF and WB and the associated ecosystem that got built around the U.S. dollar, it became the force that it is today. Now for any currency to replace the U.S. dollar, it has to have the happy coincidence of being a dominant political and economic force, a lack of alternatives for the countries and an alternative to Bretton Wood (or a modification of the same) which can replace the current system. It is very difficult to imagine how something like this can happen unless there is a global crisis of a magnitude where a rebaselining of everything becomes the only way ahead. That brings us to the other point on what sustains the dollar as a reserve currency. There are multiple factors at play here. There are, of course, the network effects of the dollar being deeply embedded in so many commercial ecosystems that taking it out is rife with friction and pain. Also, the dollar is fully convertible, which makes it convenient for others to use it as a store of value. It has remained stable; its market is deep and liquid, enabling easy conversion of bonds to cash and vice versa; there exists a mature insurance market to cover currency risks and above all, we have an implicit guarantee that the U.S. will not default on its debt. This is a trust that has been built over the last eight decades because the world believes the U.S. will run a rule-based order with a strong legal framework to ensure no single person can override rules or conventions. Yawn when you hear Yuan as the next reserve currency So, how does one see the efforts of China or Russia to wean themselves away from this dollar-dominated system? Will the yuan be able to replace the dollar ever? Apart from the points mentioned above, which led to the dollar being in a unique place in the world in the post-war days and which won't repeat itself any time soon, there are other fundamental issues with the idea of the yuan as a reserve currency. To begin with, it isn't convertible, and China runs a ‘closed' capital account system. It is difficult to move money in and out of the country freely. You will need approvals. The opaque legal system, the authoritarian one-party (one-man) rule and the lack of depth in the yuan market mean it is impossible to imagine any prudent central bank risking its entire foreign exchange reserve in yuan. China could turn into an economic giant by exploiting a global trade order without adhering to its associated political expectations. But to think it could do the same in currency exchange order is a pipe dream. Even the numbers of the recent past bear this out. For all the talk of de-dollarisation, there has been a net sell-off of Chinese government bonds by private players in the last year. No one wants to sit on Chinese bonds if things go south in the global political economy. The central banks around the world who have wanted to diversify away from the dollar in their foreign exchange reserve don't seem to have walked their talk. Even they have been net sellers of Chinese government bonds barring the initial days of the Ukraine war. Lastly, China is still struggling to raise consumption in its economy because, with a closed capital account and surplus capacity, it doesn't know what to do with the surplus yuan. Without consumption going up, it will make things worse if it starts becoming a reserved or a semi-reserve currency for the world. The probability of de-dollarisation seems to be hugely exaggerated at this moment. The alternatives are worse, and for those who complain about the coercive nature of U.S. diplomacy because of their financial clout, wait till you have China with that power. You can check with Sri Lanka for how it feels to be under China's thumb economically. Also, none of the hype around bitcoin, stablecoin or CBDC is ever going to materialise for them to replace the dollar. The recent events have shown the fairly flimsy ground on which the bitcoin exchanges (banks?) run. It is difficult to see the lack of trust to change in a hurry. But this also doesn't mean the trend towards diversification of central banks' reserves will buck soon. The gradual move towards reducing dependence on the dollar and its associated ecosystem will continue. Should the U.S. be worried about this? It shouldn't, really. It draws enormous privilege for being the reserve currency of the world. It makes its job to borrow or access money very easy. And the fact that it is a safe haven means it benefits from every crisis. But it should also be clear that this privilege has hurt its ability to export because the dollar remains stronger than it should. This, in turn, has led to the financialisation of the U.S. economy, with the rich getting richer and an evisceration of the U.S. manufacturing capabilities. Reserve diversification won't be such a bad thing for them. But that might mean a reduction of a few hundred basis points in what central banks hold globally in U.S. treasuries. That won't de-dollarise the world. For that to happen, something catastrophic will need to happen. Maybe that's why Yellen used that word about the possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its debt. That's the kind of self-goal they must avoid.  Matsyanyaaya: The Two Equilibria in India-US RelationsBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneThere has been a healthy debate over the last couple of weeks on the state of the India-US relationship. In a Foreign Affairs article, Ashley Tellis, a key figure in the 2005 civil nuclear deal, a well-known realist scholar, and a strong proponent of stronger India-US relations, cast some doubt on the burgeoning partnership. The article, provocatively titled ‘America's bad bet on India', concludes thus: The United States should certainly help India to the degree compatible with American interests. But it should harbor no illusions that its support, no matter how generous, will entice India to join it in any military coalition against China. The relationship with India is fundamentally unlike those that the United States enjoys with its allies. The Biden administration should recognize this reality rather than try to alter it.Tellis reasons that India wants a closer relationship with the US to increase its own national power, not to preserve the liberal international order or to collaborate on mutual defence against China. He further argues that the US ‘generosity' towards India is unlikely to help achieve its strategic aim of securing meaningful military contributions from India to defeat any Chinese aggression in East Asia or the South China Sea. As you would imagine, this article put the cat amongst the pigeons. However, I agree with the fundamental argument. Expectation setting is important, and it is true that India is unlikely to behave like a weaker ally; the US-India relationship will most certainly have some shades that the US-China relationship had between 1980 and 2005. In what seems to be a rejoinder to this article, Ashok Malik—previously a policy advisor in the external affairs ministry—argues that fixating on India's role in a hypothetical war on Taiwan is a wrong question to ask, an imagined roadblock that even the Biden administration isn't overly concerned about. Instead, Malik lists the growing relationship in several domains to conclude that the two administrations are far more sanguine, having figured out an approach to work with each other despite key differences. I agree with this view as well. There's no doubt that the India-US relationship has grown across sectors despite fundamental differences during an ongoing war in Europe. It is easy to. observe the shift in India-US conversations at the policy execution levels. The talks are no longer about the whys but about the hows. Gone are the days when the India-US partnership conversations began with Pakistan and ended with Russia, with the two sides taking potshots at each other in between. The conversations are about debating realistic projects that India and the US could accomplish together in areas such as space, biotechnology, semiconductors, and defence. How, then, can I agree with two seemingly opposing views? Because they aren't mutually exclusive. The India-US relationship is so far behind the production possibility frontier on technology, trade and defence that there are enough low-hanging fruits to pick. And that's exactly what we are seeing now. But if the US president were to change, or if there were to be an escalation around Taiwan, the India-US relationship would likely hit a ceiling that Tellis warns about. In edition #165, I proposed a tri-axis framework to look at the India-US relationship: state-to-state relations, state-to-people relations, and people-to-people relations. There has never been a problem on the people-to-people axis. Like Mr Malik, I, too, think that state-to-state relations have turned a corner. However, it is the state-to-people axis which is the problematic axis. Many Indians still seem to harbour a deep frustration with the American State. On the other hand, many Americans also have doubts about the Indian State as a strategic actor. Finally, it's only the two administrations that can break this ceiling. The trade-offs aren't easy, but they are real. Without the Indian government committing itself to do more to counter the Chinese military threat in the seas, the US is unlikely to transfer cutting-edge technologies. Likewise, unless the US quits its stubbornness to give more Indian products preferential access to its markets or delivers on the asymmetric promises under the technology and defence agreements, India is unlikely to revise its stance. In other words, the stage is set for the Indian PM's official state visit to the US next month. India Policy Watch #1: Generalists vs General EquilibriumInsights on issues relevant to India— Pranay KotasthaneNon-civil services folks who have worked in governments are almost always extremely insightful. Perhaps, their experience working with the bureaucracy gives them a filter to reject impractical ideas, while their breadth of knowledge allows them to take a long-term view of policy ideas. These "scholar-warriors" are often able to get to the root of issues.One such person is Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who was a guest on this week's Ideas of India podcast. Among the many insights he delivers, one that switched a lightbulb on for me was the segment on "generalists vs specialists" in government. While this is an old debate, one that civil service "mains" exam takers would not so fondly recall, this conversation made me think somewhat differently. Responding to a question on the HR problems in government, Ahluwalia says:There's big bias within the government against people wanting to specialize. The IAS' view of itself is, it's a generalist service. This I think is a bit of a colonial hangover. You come from England to rule the country; expertise is looked down upon. But in this day and age, we ought to be encouraging the people who are really into IT—there's no point putting someone who's really made up his mind that he wants to be in IT to have a stint in education and health and road transport and that sort of stuff.At another point in the episode, he begins the journey of a policy reform as follows:In the Indian system, and maybe it's true in all systems, every area is assigned to a ministry, and changes of policy that belong (in a narrow sense) to that area are the responsibility of the ministry. There are two problems here. One is, the functioning of a system as a whole requires you to do more than just add up what needs to be done in each area, because you want to look at what the economist would call a general equilibrium approach. If you want to reach a particular result, you've got to do A over here, B over there, C over there.I think there's a deeper insight at the intersection of these two dimensions. The “generalists vs specialists” debate masks another important dimension of effectiveness—whether the person approaches a problem with general equilibrium thinking or is limited to partial equilibrium analysis.General equilibrium analysis takes into account the long-term interactions of a large number of economic agents. In mathematical terms, it is based on the assumption that several variables can change at once in response to a policy change. Partial equilibrium analysis, on the other hand, focuses narrowly on one sector and a handful of variables. Ahluwalia explains that generalist civil service officers can default to partial equilibrium analysis because they are blinkered by their ministry mandates and interests. For example, few bureaucrats from the Ministry of Commerce will advocate that a unilateral lowering of tariffs will be beneficial to India, even though a general equilibrium analysis says so. However, many specialists also fall into this same trap, albeit for different reasons. An urban planner is likely to hate mixed-use neighbourhoods, while an environmentalist might argue that all mining is evil. These partial equilibria arise from the failure to see the interlinkages across the economy, a crucial aspect of general equilibrium analysis. So, irrespective of whether you are a generalist or a specialist, what matters is whether the bureaucrats are able to approach problems with a general equilibrium mindset. The current government mechanism to move career bureaucrats across ministries through deputations is probably a sub-optimal way to achieve competence in this dimension. The second mechanism is to have intra-ministerial committees or expert committees. Organisations such as the Planning Commission, Niti Aayog, or the PMO are supposed to bring in a general equilibrium mindset as well. The question is which of these bodies is best equipped to do this in this way. Probably, another way to push towards this equilibrium is to have economists and behavioural sociologists in many ministries so that their internal recommendations take a broader view beyond the self-protection of ministerial turfs. PS: There's a nice chapter on “Trace the general equilibrium effects” in In Service of the Republic by Shah & Kelkar.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* A Twitter friend asked for book recommendations to understand post-independence Indian economic history. These are the ones that came to mind:* India's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity by Vijay Joshi* India: the Emerging Giant by Arvind Panagariya* India's Tryst with Destiny by Arvind Panagariya and Jagdish Bhagwati* Backstage: The Story Behind India's High Growth Years by Montek Singh Ahluwalia &* Changing India volume, this set is a compilation of Manmohan Singh's papers (reading level: advanced) * [Podcast] This Grand Tamasha episode is a great introduction to internal security in India, backed by the latest research and data on a crucial yet under-discussed topic. * [Podcast] Should there be a caste census? Here's a Puliyabaazi on this topic that's sure to gain more traction as the national election draws near. We present two opposing perspectives, one by Yogendra Yadav and the other by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, before reaching our own divergent conclusions. Listen in and tell us what you think. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

The wonders—and perils!—of setting New Year's resolutions. The post Podcast: Should you set New Year's resolutions? appeared first on A Life of Productivity.

The NFL edition of the Run of back Podcast - Should the NFL season take place given the cases of positive testing tof COVID-19 with NFL Players and staff? - 5 NFL Games we are looking forward to the most - Which team will mostly likely fall off after a great season last year? -NFL Fantasy sleepers and who to avoid for the 2020 season. Kris Thomas w/ Katelynne Lener --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/run-it-back-podcast/support

Podcast: Should you use Trailing Stops or Fixed Stops?In this video:00:22 – Two parts to this week’s podcast00:41 – Trailing stops and should you use them?01:13 – How should you use a trailing stop?02:35 – I don’t use trailing stops03:45 – Look to move your stop loss or take partial profit05:46 – Trading for 10-30 minutes a day while on holiday – follow meShould you use trailing stops as a forex trader? Let's talk about that and more right now.Hi, traders. Andrew Mitchem here from The Forex Trading Coach with video and podcast number 327.Two parts to this week’s podcastTwo parts to the video and podcast today. The first is a question about trailing stops. The second is about a great opportunity I'm going to give you to follow me while I'm away overseas on holiday for three weeks, trading in under 30 minutes a day. More about that shortly. Let's get back to part one about trailing stops.Trailing stops and should you use them?So, the question's just been received today from a trader. He's not a client, but he's a guy that follows me on podcasts called Trevor from the UK, and Trevor asked the question … He said, "Andrew, trailing stops attempting to use as a protective factor to lock in profit in case of reversals; however, they can be taken out in strong retracements. Do you use them?" So that's a good question. The short answer is, "No, I do not use trailing stops," but let's discuss them and their merits or otherwise.How should you use a trailing stop?So, a lot of people like the thought of a trailing stop because you think that it's going to keep following your trade as you keep making profit and locking in more and more of the trade and, in theory, giving you a better return. That's the theory. There's a couple of practical issues that you need to be aware of. I'm not sure about other trading platforms, but certainly if you use the MT4, MetaTrader 4 platform, if you use a trailing stop, you actually have to have your computer on. Now, if you have your platform open on a virtual server, that's fine, but most people probably would just have it on their desktop or their laptop.If you use a trailing stop and close your chance down, then the trailing stop will not be honoured because it sits on your computer. A normal hard stop or a profit target sits with your broker, but a trailing stock does not. So, there's a factor that you need to be aware of and probably a lot of people don't know that. The other thing is, from a trading point of view, is how big a trailing stop to use and when do you start to use it? Where do you put it? When do you introduce it? Does it depend on the currency pair or the timeframe chart or the volatility in the market or flatness in the market right now? If you put a 20 pip trailing stock, is that the same on the euro pound as it would be on the pound New Zealand? One very slow, one very fast.I don’t use trailing stopsAll these type of things you need to consider. So, I don't use trailing stops for those reasons. It's too much of a guess. I like to have a little bit more certainty in my trading, and so, to me, the initial stop loss needs to be placed at a protected level for a reason. Don't just pick 30 pips because someone said so. Pick the level that the trade needs to be … the stop loss needs to be at to protect the individual trade.One of the reasons why I love trading on individual candle shapes and patterns is because if that is a relatively large candle, I can then afford to have a slightly bigger stop loss, and therefore, my profit targets bigger and the reward to risk becomes good as well. If it's a smaller candle, then generally, I've got a tighter stop loss and the smaller profit target because it's reflecting the current market conditions, and reward to risk is so important. So,

Podcast: Should you follow Trader’s Sentiment?In this weekly video:00:24 – Trader’s question from Norway00:41 – Sentiment is hard to measure in the FX market01:42 – Do you follow other traders?02:04 – Why I use price action02:50 – Trading against the sentiment03:50 – Continuation patterns04:39 – Send me your trading questionsShould you follow sentiment from other traders when making your trading decisions? Let's talk about that and more right now.Hey, traders. It's Andrew Mitchem here from the The Forex Trading Coach with video and podcast number 306.Trader’s question from NorwayNow I've received an email just this morning from a trader called Simon over in Norway. Simon said, "Hey Andrew, love your podcast, but can you chat about sentiment on a future podcast? Should we be following traders or should we go against them?"Sentiment is hard to measure in the FX marketSimon, it's a really interesting question, because sentiment is quite difficult to measure in the Forex market. It depends where you get your information from. Are you looking at different websites? Are you looking at something like Reuters possibly? Are you looking at something like Forex Factory or FXStreet? They all show where traders are long or short on different currencies and where people are placing their positions right now. The problem is is they can only show the data that they can measure, so it's not uniform. It's not the same depending on where you get that data source from.When you think about it, in the Forex market, it's very difficult to measure, a little bit like volume. Go and have a look at the volume indicator on, say, your broker's platform, and then open up a different broker. The volume levels that you see are vastly different, and I supposed it depends on where the broker gets their data from. Is it just from their traders? Is it from their entire price feed? Where does it come from? Sentiment, very, very similar, can be the same issue.Do you follow other traders?If you are simply just following other people or you think, "I'm just going to do the opposite," because 95% of traders all lose, then it becomes quite dangerous in some ways. Although I like the idea, Simon, and I like what you're saying, I think there's a better way to do a similar type of thing.Why I use price actionThat's the way that I trade, which is why I use price action. You see, I'm looking at price action to give me an idea of where the big players in the market are moving the market, where they're placing their orders. That's why I also look at round numbers, like numbers, price levels ending in 00 or 50, because they're strong psychological levels. The price is likely to move up close to a 00 and then it's probably going to bounce back down again, or if it's heading back down to that level, it's going to bounce and then pull back again. A lot of orders are placed out, a lot of stop orders, a lot of stop losses, a lot of profit targets, et cetera, round numbers. So combining price action and candle formations with round numbers and support and resistance, et cetera, is the main part of how I trade.But coming back to the sentiment question, if we were to say trade against the traders, the vast majority, that's kind of like I'm use as a reversal pattern. Just last week, on last week's video and podcast, I said, "Should you trade reversals or only continuations?" Reversals are going against the trend in some ways, but I only take a reversal signal once I have confirmation from the price action that the price is turning down. I'm not seeing the price going up and up and up and just simply taking sell crates just because I want to. I'm waiting for that price to go up and up and I'm looking for it to start to tip over,

Podcast: Should you trade the news?In this weekly video:00:29 – News trading – does it work?00:58 –  Or are you a technical Forex trader?01:38 – Trading the US jobs news02:20 – Australian employment data04:18 – The choice is yours05:19 – Send me your trading questions to andrew@theforextradingcoach.comAs a trader should you trade the news announcements or not? Let's talk about that and more right now.Hey traders, Andrew Mitchem here, the Forex Trading Coach with video and podcast number 299.So today I want to talk about news and trading around the news. Should you do it? Should you look at trading those high impact news announcements that come out every day of the trading week or not?News trading – does it work?Really, it depends on you as a trader as a person whether you want to or not. So really, if you're not sure a news trader or a fundamental trader is someone who trades news announcements. It basically becomes an opinion on whether you think that news is good or bad for a currency. You get the high impact news announcements like interest rates, employment, those type of things. Or you are a technical trader, like I am.Or are you a technical Forex trader?The technical trader looks at charts and looks at patterns and price action and price levels and technical indicators and you make your trading decisions from there.Of course, some people can use both. Although I'm a technical trader, of course I am aware of the news announcements and what's coming up and which currency they are likely to affect. I go and check what those results are. But the fundamentals do not affect my trading; I'm purely a technical trader. Because for me the charts tell me everything I need to know. Now, as a fundamental trader years ago … 10, 12, 14 years ago, I used to trade nonfarm payrolls and nonfarm employment change.Trading the US jobs newsFirst Friday of each month, US employment data. You speak absolutely easy, used to make a fortune from it, because you'd put a straddle on, a buy and sell stop, and the market would just break out massively one way or the other. I used to make a lot of money.But of course today, brokers have wised up on things like that. It's very hard to take straddle trades. The price can sometimes freeze on your charts around the high impact news times. The spreads can massively widen. All those kind of things. So that was a long time ago when that was easy to trade. Today it's very, very different.Australian employment dataTo give you an example, just yesterday on Thursday there was the Australian employment data came out. Now, a lot of jobs got created, far more than expected. The unemployment went down. So very, very good news for the Australian economy. However, on Wednesday on my membership site, and actually on the free information I post on various websites, I suggested buying the Australian Dollar against the US and against the Yen. But for my clients as a specific trade we had buy the Australian Dollar/US Dollar at these levels and the market order stop loss here and profit timing there and the reasons why. It's all taught in the course. Real simple. But we had an Australian Dollar/US Dollar buy trade on the daily chart based off the close of Tuesday's candle for Wednesday trading session.Yesterday, that trade hit the full profit target for a 3.2:1 reward to risk. So if you take a 1% risk on that trade, it made you 3.2% account gain. I took a 0.5% risk so it made a 1.6% account gain from that one trade, which took me about 30 seconds to see and about another 30 seconds to place on my platform. A 1.6% account gain. Simple. Yes, it took just over a day to get there. But the thing that I'm wanting to let you know is that we were seeing the strength in the Australian Dollar over a day before the a...

Podcast: Should you back test your strategy?In this weekly video:00:22 – Should I and how do I back test?01:00 –  Why back testing is beneficial02:02 – Live testing can be very slow03:08 – How do you back test a strategy?04:02 – Other benefits of back testing04:40 – Good back testing is very beneficialIs it beneficial to back test your forex strategy? Let's talk about that and more right now.Hi traders. Andrew Mitchem here, the Forex Trading Coach of video and podcast number 284.Should I and how do I back test?Now I get a lot of questions about back testing and people will say, "Hey Andrew, should I back test? How do I do it? What's the best way of doing it? Is it a waste of time?" All those kind of things. And I suppose it depends on who you talk to, depending on what answer you get. But my opinion is that back testing is very, very important and I strongly encourage clients to do that.A number of reasons why. But it's also important to understand that you have to do good, thorough back testing. You know, not just be a bit blasé about it. It had to be very thorough in order to get the best amount of information from that.Why back testing is beneficialAnd what I love about it, as someone who does a lot of manual trading, is that it encourages you to look for patterns, and it also trains your eye for looking for patterns, without that real life pressure of trading right now.The downside with forward testing as in like learning something, whether it even be on a demo, but learning it live is, it's very emotional, very psychological, sort of, not so much damaging, but you know, it can affect your trade decision by having something happening right now live in the market, but also it's very, very slow. And it's also highly dependent on what the conditions are right now.So I'm filming this. We are August, traditionally a very, very slow month. July was typically slow, like July is most years. Northern hemisphere, summer holidays, vacations, etc. And probably expecting much the same to happen in August.Live testing can be very slowSo live testing now for the next month may not give me that full appreciation and that full understanding of what my strategy, if I'm learning a new strategy, could be like.However, back testing can give you some really good information. But like a lot of things, practice is okay, but bad practice is not good. Good practice is good, if you get what I mean there. Because you know you can just keep doing the same old thing, same old thing, but if you're making mistakes with that, that's not great. But really good thorough practice I believe is very, very good.Because it helps you to gain confidence within your strategy. And if you can see a strategy or a pattern, whatever it is that you're looking for, work historically well throughout month by month, year by year. That has to give you that confidence that you need to trade that strategy live in real time, when it's very, very slow. Because you know, you're going to wait day after day.How do you back test a strategy?So how do you go about doing this and what can you get from it? Well, there's a number of ways you can go about doing it. But the best thing is to either buy some back testing software, or download good historical data from your broker and go through it very thoroughly looking for the patterns that you're looking for, looking at the price levels.But be careful if your strategy uses too many indicators because a lot of indicators look different when you're looking at them in hindsight in historical information than they do live, because most indicators are moving throughout the formation of a candle. However, that doesn't affect me and my strategy because I only ever look for a trade setup upon the completion...

[PODCAST] Should women wear head coverings according to Paul, and are they allowed to wear jewelry? Time to answer the big question nobody wants to touch: Should women wear headcoverings? And can they wear jewelry? Where did Paul get many of the ideas behind his writings? This is a topic that has left many confused – there are many lies and deceptions regarding this that has become a norm to so many of us. I would like to encourage you to leave all preconceived ideas, and ask the Spirit for clarity. May this bless you and bring FREEDOM. For the past 2000 years, Paul's controversial letters have been misunderstood, misaligned, and sometimes even rejected. Among the most debated is his letters concerning women in ministry. Can women teach? Are women allowed to hold positions of authority? Should women wear head coverings? Are women allowed to wear jewelry? What are the biblical roles of men & women? These debates may have formed due to a lack of knowledge regarding both the old testament writings, as well as a certain Roman cultural revolution that occurred at the time of his writings. Join PD in 2 hours of investigation into first century Rome to better understand the contexts of Paul's letters dealing with women in ministry. Rise on Fire is a ministry assigned to ignite a fire of Spirit & Truth around the world. God is calling us back to the walk of Yeshua with no more excuses. We are free from the traditions of men, led by the Truth and empowered by the Spirit. ╫ If this blessed you, make a donation to help me do more! http://www.riseonfire.com/partner ╫ Links: http://www.riseonfire.com http://www.facebook.com/RiseOnFire http://www.twitter.com/RiseOnFireSA https://www.youtube.com/RiseOnFire PATRONS - Special thanks to: Chelsea Randell Vivian Lockett Marianne L Coulter Matthew Mann Shawn Rutherford Mary K Ellison Christopher Tusken Roderick Tinsley Michael Inocentes CREDIT All music rights reserved (c) to the respective owners. We do not own the rights to the songs used. Permission has been obtained from Mattie Montgomery, Citipointe Live, Sarah Jubilee and Lize Wiid for use. The most helpful academic source on this series has been: Roman Wives, Roman Widows: The Appearance of New Women and the Pauline Communities by Bruce W. Winter ​ [other sources cited within video]

Podcast: Should you trade the short time frame charts?In this weekly video:00:22 – Always getting asked this question – I cannot trade the main sessions 01:20 – Go to the longer time frame charts 01:54 – Getting affected by fundamentals and spread size 02:38 – How much time to you want to spend at the charts each day? 03:23 – Trade less and make more 03:52 – Trade analysis and a 55% gain per yearShould you look at trading short time frame charts? Let's talk about that and more right now.Always getting asked this question – I cannot trade the main sessionsHi Forex Traders. This is Andrew Mitchem here, The Forex Trading Coach. Video and podcast number 237.Now, I get questions every week, and probably every day and people say to me, "Look Andrew. I can't trade the US session. I can't trade the European session. I'm at work. I've got family commitments. I'm asleep then," all these kind of issues that people have and for some reason, people seem to think that they have to trade the European session, which of course if you live in America, that's no good because it's like two or 3:00 in the morning.People think they need to trade the US session. Well, for me here in New Zealand, that's two or 3:00 in the morning. I had a guy just yesterday from New Zealand. He said to me, "I can't trade the European session because that's our night time." He said, "I work nights so I can't trade in that European session, which I know is the most active time and it's the most profitable time to be a Forex trader. How do I get around it because I can only look in the daytime, which is the Asian session, and nothing happens most days in the Asian sessions so I can't trade. How do I work this, Andrew?”Go to the longer time frame chartsWell, the simple answer is, go to the longer time frame charts. Go to the daily charts. You could trade five and 15 minute charts if you wanted to. My system works very nicely on those time frame charts. In all honesty, I don't trade them. It's just something that just doesn't suit my personality. I don't like sitting, watching the charts, watching the screen all the time, feeling like you have to be taking trades all the time. The shorter the timeframe you go, generally the less reliable the trading information, the technical information is.Getting affected by fundamentals and spread sizeYou are more likely to get influenced by news events like fundamental events and widening spreads. Spreads actually become such a big part of your actual performance, because if you're trading and taking like a handful of pips maybe at like 10, 20 pips of profit, depending on the trade. You've paid two or three pips to get into that trade, all of a sudden, 10, 15% of your profit is being eaten up by the spread.If you trade longer timeframe charts such as like daily charts and your profit target may be in 80 pips, 100, 150 whatever it might be depending on the trade again, and the volatility in the market at the time. I can handle paying two or three pips because it doesn't really make a great deal of difference.How much time to you want to spend at the charts each day?The other thing is also, how much time do you really want to spend at your charts? By trading the daily charts, it doesn't matter where you live in the world. I've got clients in 59 countries all around the world, all with different jobs, different set of commitments that they have in their life, and not a single person has a difficulty replacing my daily trades. Why? Well, I place retracement orders and then also I personally place part of my position at the market. I look at the 5pm close of New York day candle, and make my analysis from there. A daily chart has a lot of valuable information in it.

Podcast: Should you use a Stop Loss?In this video: 00:35 – Always use a Stop Loss 02:04 – Every trade should have the same risk 02:30 – Where to place your Stop Loss? 03:40 – What position size do I need? 03:55 – Clients making excellent returnsShould you use a stop loss as a Forex trader? Let's answer that question and more right now. Hi Forex traders, it's Andrew Mitchem here. Today's Friday the 20th of November and I've received an email from Dan, I believe he's in the US, and Dan said to me, Andrew, I'm not sure if you use stop losses. Can you tell me if you do use a stop loss in your own trading and if you do, how do you place that stop loss? Always use a Stop Loss The answer Dan is, absolutely yes, 100 percent I do use a stop loss and I always use a stop loss. Why? Well, because it's an insurance protection against my trading account. What I don't want to see is my trade go wrong and go drastically wrong and I lose a huge amount of money from my one trade. It's just not a good way to trade. So many people come to me and they say, look, I've just got stopped badly, if only I didn't use a stop loss I would have then remained in trade and would have made some money. That's possibly true in some cases, in many cases from time to time, but the problem is, is that it's just the ones that you pick out. What you don't see when you identify those ones that just get stopped down is the ones that may have hit your stop loss and then gone a lot further. For me, I always use a stop loss, have to use a stop loss. I think you then become a, almost like into a gambling situation if you don't use one. That's just my personal opinion, but hey look, 11 years after I started trading, I'm still trading today and I've never come close to blowing an account by using that safe approach to my trading. I mean, you think of it this way, if you have an equal risk on every trade like I do, an equal risk regardless of the timeframe, of the chart, regardless of the length of time the trade's in the market, regardless of the currency pair, regardless of whether it's a reversal pattern, a continuation pattern, doesn't matter what it is, every trade has the same risk. Every trade should have the same risk The only way that you can control that risk is to have a stop loss in place, because once you know where that stop loss needs to be, you can then calculate the lot size, the position size that you need to place on that particular trade so that if that trade goes wrong, you lose a set amount of money, a percentage of your account or a set amount of money, which ever way that you like to trade.Where to place your Stop Loss? In order to get that right, you need to know where to place your stop loss. For me, the stop loss needs to be placed at a level that says, this is a safety level for this particular trade. If this level gets hit, wherever you decide to put it and I've got many ways of where I, you know, well not many ways, but I've got ways of where I know I'm placing my stop loss on every trade. You have to accept that if this level gets hit, then I'm accepting that the trade set up that I saw at the time is wrong. I get it wrong, it's unlucky, the market goes against me, whatever the reason is, it gets stopped down so I have to say that if this level gets hit, and I'm buying up here, and if the price moves down and gets, hits this level and I've got stopped out, I accept that I'm incorrect on that trade. It goes against me, I lose money, but I know a predefined amount of money or percentage of my account that I lose on that trade and I can live with that. I'm happy with that level. It's a comfortable level, it doesn't hurt me, it doesn't mentally scar me, it doesn't get in the way of ruining my trading account. That's why personally I always go to no more than half of...

Podcast: Should you use a trailing stop as a Forex trader?In this video: 00:26 Do Trailing-Stops Beneficial 01:20 Trailing- Stop Issues 04:03 Just A Quick SurveyShould you use a trailing stop as a Forex trader? Let's talk about that and more right now.Hi Forex traders, it's Andrew Mitchem here, the Forex trading coach. Today is Friday, the 9th of October. As you can see, it's springtime here in New Zealand, and I thought it would be a great idea to get outside into the bit of fresh air, and away from the charts for this video and podcast.Do Trailing-Stops BeneficialI want to talk about trailing-stops. I've had an email here from Raphael, who said, "Hey, Andrew, can you make a video describing the benefits of trailing stops. I think it would make a great topic for your weekly videos." I've had a think about that, because it's a question that I get asked quite often. I've got to be really honest with you, I'm not a fan of trailing stops myself.I'm not saying they don't work, I'm just saying that within my own trading and the style of trading that I have, I don't use trailing stops, and I'll explain why. As a technical trader, I like to look at what's happening on the charts, and I like to have a reason for everything that I do. I like to have a reason for placing the trade, a reason for my stop loss, a reason for my profit target, etc. That, as a technical trader, gives me confidence of why I'm taking a trade.Trailing- Stop IssuesThe problem that I have with a trailing stop is, how big a trailing stop do you use?Do you use 10 pips, 20 pips, 100 pips?What is it that you use?Then you come back to the problem of your trading is then determined by how many pips you make, rather than the percentages, like I talk about in terms of the way that I trade with risk and money management.I'm not a great fan of saying, "Hey, I want to move my stop, trail it by 20 pips," because it depends on what pair I'm trading, because different currency pairs move at different amounts. It depends on the time of day that I'd be trading. The Asian session is generally a lot slower than, let's say, the European sessions, so 20 pips doesn't really mean a great deal. If I was trading the British Pound/New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD), 20 pips is absolutely nothing. Yet, if I'm trading the Euro/British Pound (EUR/GBP), 20 pips is actually quite a lot, because it's a slower moving currency pair.Again, you can see the issues with picking a trailing stop. Also, what determines 20 pips? Maybe it should be 30, maybe it should be 40? It's hard to know exactly how big a trailing stop to use.Of course, if you use MT4 and that's probably the same with other trading platforms, is that a trailing stop will only work if you have your computer on. A hard stop loss, you can put that in and close your computer down and walk away from your charts, and your broker's server keeps that on there on their platform, whereas a trailing stop only works if your computer is actually on, and connected to the internet. If you have a virtual server, not a problem, but I'm guessing the majority of people who are trading, don't have a virtual server and they have their computer on. If your computer stops, you lose an internet connection, you close down your platform, then you lose that trailing stop figure. That becomes another issue.For me, if I place stop loss, and my trade moves into some really good profit, let's say, and I want to protect that profit, then I'd much rather move my stop loss to a technical level. Let's say, I might be buying. I want to move my stop loss up to below the last swing low, or the candle low, or round number, or pivot point, whatever it is that I'm using as my strategy. Wherever I see a good support level, I might want to bring my stop loss up to below that last support ...