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The Dollar Standard, Global Liquidity, and the Coming Economic Reckoning In my expansive and highly accessible conversation with renowned economist Richard Duncan, we discuss the logic behind his long-running critique of the international monetary system, a system Richard calls the Dollar Standard where he explains why current U.S. policy moves, the system could come crashing down. The Origins of the Dollar Standard and America's “Exorbitant Privilege” The Dollar Standard, Duncan explains, evolved out of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system (implemented after WWII) in 1971. Under Bretton Woods, currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold. But when other countries accumulated more dollars than the U.S. had gold, President Nixon suspended dollar convertibility, effectively ending the gold standard. What replaced it was a floating currency regime and the birth of the Dollar Standard. Crucially, the U.S. began running persistent trade deficits, importing goods and sending dollars abroad. These dollars, in turn, were recycled by foreign central banks, especially in trade surplus countries like China and Japan, into U.S. dollar-denominated assets, primarily Treasuries, but also equities and real estate. This loop, Duncan argues, created America's “exorbitant privilege”: the ability to fund government spending and consumer imports at artificially low interest rates, because foreign buyers are constantly reinvesting in U.S. debt and assets. The phrase "exorbitant privilege" was first coined by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who later became President of France, but at the time was serving as France's Minister of Finance under President Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s. He used the term to criticize the unique advantages enjoyed by the United States under the Bretton Woods system, particularly the ability to run persistent deficits by issuing debt in its own currency (the U.S. dollar), while foreign nations had to hold and use those dollars to trade and build reserves. Giscard and de Gaulle saw this as an unfair financial hegemony that allowed the U.S. to “live beyond its means” at the expense of others. The phrase was intended as a critique but, ironically, it's now often used in a neutral or even admiring tone by economists. How Global Credit Became a Bubble Machine Duncan makes the case that this system, while benefiting the U.S. enormously, has been fundamentally destabilizing for the rest of the world. As surplus countries absorb dollar inflows, their central banks convert them into local currency, often by printing their own money. That liquidity ends up in domestic banking systems, fueling excessive credit growth, asset bubbles, and financial crises. It happened in Japan in the late 1980s. It triggered the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s. And it helped fuel China's real estate boom and the global credit bubble that preceded the 2008 collapse. Notably, Duncan predicted the 2008 financial crisis in his 2003 book, The Dollar Crisis, warning that runaway global imbalances would eventually lead to a systemic shock. He now argues that post-2008 bailouts and quantitative easing (QE) only expanded the bubble rather than fixing the problem. Trump's Trade Doctrine: Potential to Destabilize the System Fast forward to 2025: Trump is back in office, and his administration is moving quickly to reshape global trade. Duncan's concern is that the Trump administration's effort to eliminate the U.S. trade deficit by imposing high tariffs and pursuing a strategic devaluation of the dollar, undermines the very structure that has sustained U.S. prosperity and global financial stability for decades. Why? Because every U.S. trade deficit is matched by a capital inflow. It's a balance-of-payments identity: if the U.S. runs a $1.1 trillion current account deficit, there must be a $1.1 trillion capital surplus (i.e., inflows) to finance it. Take that away and you choke off the supply of global liquidity that props up asset prices worldwide. The Doom Loop: What Happens If Capital Stops Flowing In Duncan walks through the scenario: If tariffs succeed in shrinking the trade deficit, dollars stop flowing abroad. Without those dollars, foreign central banks have fewer reserves to recycle into U.S. assets. This reduces demand for Treasuries, pushing interest rates up. Rising rates crush real estate, stocks, and credit-dependent sectors. Simultaneously, trade-surplus economies face a liquidity crunch, leading to job losses, bankruptcies, and potential financial crises. The result? A global depression triggered not by market excess this time, but by deliberate government policy. Duncan notes that the Trump administration has already blinked once in rolling back tariffs on China after markets began to seize. But the damage to global confidence in the dollar's stability and America's reliability as a trading partner may already be done. CRE-Specific Risks For CRE professionals, Duncan's framework suggests several key risks: Interest Rate Volatility: If capital inflows decline, Treasury demand will fall and rates may rise, increasing financing costs and repricing assets downward. Foreign Capital Flight: A weakening dollar and escalating trade tensions could lead to foreign divestment from U.S. real estate, especially in coastal gateway cities where foreign investors are dominant. Liquidity Shock: Reduced global liquidity may tighten credit markets, making debt financing harder to access for new acquisitions or refis. Wealth Effect Reversal: Falling stock prices and higher rates could curb consumer spending and investor confidence, affecting retail, hospitality, and housing-linked CRE. Is There a Way Out? Despite the dire tone, Duncan offers a constructive alternative. In his more recent book, The Money Revolution, he advocates using the U.S. government's borrowing capacity, enabled by dollar dominance and low rates, to invest aggressively in future-focused industries: AI, biotech, quantum computing, green energy. In short: inflate productively, not destructively. Use fiat-financed public investment to grow out of the debt bubble, rather than letting it implode through austerity or protectionism. But he acknowledges that political will may be lacking and that, without it, the only other option will be another round of massive QE when the next crisis hits. Final Thought Duncan's message is clear: we are not playing by gold standard rules anymore. The U.S. economy, and the world's, runs on confidence, liquidity, and the flow of capital. Disrupt that system and we may find ourselves testing whether the Fed and Treasury can reflate the bubble one more time. *** You may not agree with Richard's perspective but, as a real estate investor, understanding differing points of view helps in underwriting investment risk by incorporating possible downsides into exit strategies. This is a fascinating and accessible discussion. Tune in if you want to understand the real risks underpinning your real estate investment decisions in the coming months. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
Natalie Brunell is joined by renowned economist and monetary scholar Judy Shelton, former advisor to President Trump and outspoken advocate for sound money. Judy shares her deep insights on the Federal Reserve, gold-backed monetary policy, and the future of economic stability in the U.S. and abroad. She also reflects on her controversial Fed nomination, the collapse of Bretton Woods, and her views on Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset. Topics discussed include: Why Judy Shelton believes the Fed is unaccountable and whether it can be reformed The case for returning to sound money principles Her proposal for gold-backed U.S. Treasury bonds How marking gold to market could address national debt The collapse of the Bretton Woods system and lessons from it Currency manipulation, trade imbalances, and tariffs The rise of Bitcoin and how it compares to gold Why her Fed nomination was blocked and what it revealed The future of the dollar as a global reserve currency How alternative currencies like Bitcoin could restore market integrity ---- This interview provides a powerful look at fixing or replacing today's broken monetary system. Guest Bio: Judy Shelton is a former economic advisor to President Trump, and a Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and the author of "Good as Gold: How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money." She is known for her advocacy for a return to the gold standard, and for her criticisms of the Federal Reserve. President Trump nominated Shelton to the Fed in 2019. She holds a Ph.D. in business administration, with an emphasis on finance and international economics, from the University of Utah. Follow Judy on X at https://x.com/judyshel ---- Coin Stories is powered by Bitwise. Bitwise has over $10B in client assets, 32 investment products, and a team of 100+ employees across the U.S. and Europe, all solely focused on Bitcoin and digital assets since 2017. Learn more at https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product and Event Links: Secure your Bitcoin with collaborative custody and set up your inheritance plan with Casa: https://www.casa.io/natalie Block's Bitkey Cold Storage Wallet was named to TIME's prestigious Best Inventions of 2024 in the category of Privacy & Security. Get 20% off using code STORIES at https://bitkey.world Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie For easy, low-cost, instant Bitcoin payments, I use Speed Lightning Wallet. Get 5000 sats when you download using this link and promo code COINSTORIES10: https://www.speed.app/sweepstakes-promocode/ Safely self-custody your Bitcoin with Coinkite and the ColdCard Wallet. Get 5% off: https://store.coinkite.com/promo/COINSTORIES River is where I DCA weekly and buy Bitcoin with the lowest fees in the industry: https://partner.river.com/natalie Earn 2% back in Bitcoin on all your purchases with the Gemini credit card: https://www.gemini.com/natalie Bitcoin 2025 is heading to Las Vegas May 27-29th! Join me for my 4th Annual Women of Bitcoin Brunch! Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/affiliate/hodl/event/bitcoin-2025 Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing
Arthur Hayes returns to Bankless for a wide-ranging macro and crypto conversation. We cover why ETH ripped, why the Trump administration might walk away from US treasuries as the global reserve asset, and why capital controls—not tariffs—could redefine the global economic order. Arthur lays out his full thesis on how a massive shift in global liquidity is unfolding, what it means for crypto, and why he's betting big on Bitcoin, gold, and “buying everything” as the money printers rev up again. ------
This week on International Horizons, RBI Director John Torpey interviews historian Tara Zahra, author of Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics Between the World Wars (W.W. Norton, 2023). Zahra reflects on the historical parallels between the current backlash against globalization and the anti-globalist movements of the interwar period. She highlights how economic insecurity, the rise of mass politics, and anxieties over immigration and trade shaped political reactions in both eras, while noting key differences—such as the role of environmentalism today and the absence of a world war in recent memory. Zahra also discusses the collapse of the international economic system in the 1930s, the ideological diversity of anti-globalist movements, and the legacy of Bretton Woods. She proposes that revisiting elements of the post-WWII international order, including regional cooperation and economic stabilization, may offer insight into managing today's fractured global landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/history
This week on International Horizons, RBI Director John Torpey interviews historian Tara Zahra, author of Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics Between the World Wars (W.W. Norton, 2023). Zahra reflects on the historical parallels between the current backlash against globalization and the anti-globalist movements of the interwar period. She highlights how economic insecurity, the rise of mass politics, and anxieties over immigration and trade shaped political reactions in both eras, while noting key differences—such as the role of environmentalism today and the absence of a world war in recent memory. Zahra also discusses the collapse of the international economic system in the 1930s, the ideological diversity of anti-globalist movements, and the legacy of Bretton Woods. She proposes that revisiting elements of the post-WWII international order, including regional cooperation and economic stabilization, may offer insight into managing today's fractured global landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science
Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show to discuss the intricacies of trade deficits, the role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, and the broader economic implications for the United States. Lyn explains that a trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports, and while some countries experience this cyclically, others, like India, have managed structural deficits by investing in long-term growth rather than overconsumption. The US, however, faces a unique challenge: its trade deficit is deeply tied to its status as the world's reserve currency, which creates an excess demand for dollars and makes it difficult to manufacture competitively. Lyn highlights that the dollar's strength perpetuates this cycle, making imports expensive and exports cheaper, while also forcing the US to rely on foreign investment to fund its deficits. This dynamic has contributed to deindustrialization and a shift in economic power globally. She contrasts this with historical examples like the UK during the Bretton Woods era, where a similar situation led to stagnation before the rise of new powers like the US. The discussion shifts to fiscal dominance, where large government deficits constrain monetary policy, making central banks more reliant on fiscal authorities. Lyn notes that the Fed is increasingly limited in its ability to control inflation due to these fiscal pressures. She also addresses Trump's tariff policies, arguing they harm domestic industries and shift costs onto American consumers while failing to address the root causes of trade imbalances. Inflationary pressures from tariffs are uneven, with specific sectors facing price increases while others experience disinflation. Lyn emphasizes that sustained inflation requires broader money supply growth, which has not been a significant factor in recent years. She concludes by exploring alternatives like gold and Bitcoin as potential reserve assets, suggesting that diversification into neutral reserves could help mitigate risks but remains largely theoretical at this stage. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Trade Deficits & Tariffs5:02 - Sustainable Economics?10:33 - Dollar & Liquidity14:02 - Fiat Currency 'Growth'15:49 - Fed & Fiat Deflation?21:40 - Tariff Model & Truth25:05 - Gold, Bitcoin, & Dollar28:30 - Trade, Tariffs, & Conflict33:04 - Bond Market Impacts36:36 - Taxes & Gradual Tariffs39:05 - DOGE & Reducing Deficits42:00 - Fiscal Dominance46:23 - Devaluing/Lower Dollar?49:43 - U.S. Gov't Buying Gold?52:20 - Bitcoin Reserve?56:09 - Tariffs & Inflation Effects59:40 - Watch for Fiscal Issues1:00:50 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://www.lynalden.com/ Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you're new to investing or experienced, there's a lot there for you. Lyn has a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and a master's degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility. She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time's Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor's Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts.
The Fed is quietly back to buying billions in treasuries — stealth QE is alive, and nobody's talking about it. Andy Schectman, President of Miles Franklin, returns to Soar Financially to break down the new monetary system being built by BRICS nations, the shift away from the U.S. dollar, and why central banks are loading up on gold and silver at record pace.From suppressed interest rates to Bretton Woods 3.0, Andy reveals the infrastructure behind the biggest financial shift in decades — and why investors ignoring it are walking into a trap.#Gold #Silver #brics ---------------------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------
In this episode of the Bitcoin Matrix, I chat with Preston Pysh who brings clarity as we explore the unraveling of the petrodollar system and the seismic shift toward a Bitcoin-centric financial future. ––– Offers & Discounts –––
Is this the final chapter for the U.S. dollar's dominance? Matthew Piepenburg joins us to break down historic global shifts, surging gold prices, and what he calls the ‘Stalingrad moment' of the U.S. dollar. From tariff wars and autocratic rises to BRICS realignment and bond market breakdowns, Piepenburg outlines why everything is pointing to a new global order.Is gold finally vindicated? Is the Titanic sinking? Why aren't we hearing more about BRICS in 2024?#Gold #USDollar #macroeconomics ------------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------
This week on International Horizons, RBI Director John Torpey interviews historian Tara Zahra, author of Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics Between the World Wars (W.W. Norton, 2023). Zahra reflects on the historical parallels between the current backlash against globalization and the anti-globalist movements of the interwar period. She highlights how economic insecurity, the rise of mass politics, and anxieties over immigration and trade shaped political reactions in both eras, while noting key differences—such as the role of environmentalism today and the absence of a world war in recent memory. Zahra also discusses the collapse of the international economic system in the 1930s, the ideological diversity of anti-globalist movements, and the legacy of Bretton Woods. She proposes that revisiting elements of the post-WWII international order, including regional cooperation and economic stabilization, may offer insight into managing today's fractured global landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network
Vị thế của đồng đô la Mỹ - Sức mạnh lịch sử và những mối đe dọa từ nội tạiĐồng đô la Mỹ đã duy trì vị thế thống trị toàn cầu nhờ một loạt yếu tố lịch sử, kinh tế và địa chính trị. Hệ thống Bretton Woods năm 1944 đặt nền móng cho vai trò trung tâm của đồng đô la, khi các quốc gia neo tỷ giá vào nó và Mỹ cam kết quy đổi đô la lấy vàng. Dù hệ thống này sụp đổ vào năm 1973, đồng đô la vẫn là lựa chọn hàng đầu nhờ tính thanh khoản, uy tín của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (Fed), và thị trường tài chính Mỹ sâu rộng. Quy mô kinh tế khổng lồ, pháp quyền mạnh mẽ, cùng hiệu ứng mạng lưới – với 88% giao dịch ngoại hối liên quan đến đô la – càng củng cố vị trí này. Đặc biệt, “đặc quyền cắt cổ” mang lại lợi ích tài chính đáng kể, từ lợi tức phát hành tiền đến giảm gánh nặng nợ khi đồng đô la mất giá.Không chỉ dựa vào kinh tế, vị thế của đồng đô la còn được hỗ trợ bởi sức mạnh quân sự và “sức mạnh mềm” của Mỹ. Việc cung cấp hàng hóa công toàn cầu và cam kết bảo vệ quyền lợi chủ nợ nước ngoài tạo niềm tin mạnh mẽ. Trái phiếu Kho bạc Mỹ, với tính an toàn và tính thanh khoản cao, đáp ứng nhu cầu tài sản chuẩn của thế giới. Tuy nhiên, chính sự phụ thuộc này cũng đặt ra thách thức: bất kỳ sự sụt giảm niềm tin nào vào Mỹ đều có thể làm lung lay nền tảng của đồng đô la.Dù sở hữu nền tảng vững chắc, đồng đô la đang đối mặt với những nguy cơ lớn, chủ yếu từ nội tại nước Mỹ, đặc biệt dưới các chính sách của Tổng thống Donald Trump. Sự rối loạn tài khóa, với thâm hụt ngân sách và nợ công tăng cao, đe dọa niềm tin vào nợ chính phủ Mỹ. Áp lực của Trump lên sự độc lập của Fed, cùng với việc rút khỏi các thỏa thuận quốc tế và vũ khí hóa các thể chế như Bộ Tư pháp, làm xói mòn uy tín của Mỹ. Những động thái này không chỉ gây bất ổn cho đồng minh mà còn khiến các đối tác quốc tế nghi ngờ độ tin cậy của hệ thống tài chính Mỹ.Chính sách thương mại của Trump, với thuế quan quy mô lớn và cách tiếp cận thất thường, đang làm rung chuyển thị trường tài chính. Thuế quan không chỉ khiến đồng đô la giảm giá mà còn làm tăng lợi suất trái phiếu Kho bạc, báo hiệu sự sụt giảm niềm tin của nhà đầu tư. Đáng lo ngại hơn, ý tưởng về “Hiệp định Mar-a-Lago” – sử dụng thuế quan và cam kết an ninh để ép các nước phá giá tiền tệ – có thể “phá hủy niềm tin” vào đồng đô la. Lịch sử cho thấy các nỗ lực tương tự, như Hiệp định Smithsonian hay Plaza, không mang lại lợi ích lâu dài và có thể gây hậu quả nghiêm trọng.Sự xói mòn niềm tin vào Mỹ có thể đẩy nhanh quá trình phân mảnh tiền tệ toàn cầu. Dù đồng euro và nhân dân tệ chưa đủ sức thách thức, sự suy yếu từ bên trong của Mỹ có thể tạo cơ hội cho các đối thủ. Hơn nữa, việc chính quyền Trump ủng hộ tiền điện tử không kiểm soát và cấm phát triển tiền kỹ thuật số của ngân hàng trung ương (CBDC) có nguy cơ cô lập Mỹ khỏi hệ thống thanh toán toàn cầu, làm suy yếu vai trò của đồng đô la trong tương lai.Vị thế của đồng đô la Mỹ là kết quả của hàng thập kỷ xây dựng dựa trên sức mạnh kinh tế, thể chế đáng tin cậy và vai trò địa chính trị. Tuy nhiên, những chính sách gây bất ổn, đặc biệt từ chính quyền Trump, đang đe dọa làm lung lay nền tảng này. Nếu Mỹ không giải quyết được các vấn đề nội tại – từ rối loạn tài khóa đến xói mòn niềm tin thể chế – đồng đô la có thể mất đi ánh hào quang, kéo theo sự phân mảnh tài chính toàn cầu và suy giảm thịnh vượng chung. Giữ vững vị thế của đồng đô la đòi hỏi không chỉ sức mạnh kinh tế mà còn sự lãnh đạo có trách nhiệm và tầm nhìn dài hạn. To hear more, visit changngocgia.substack.com
This week on International Horizons, RBI Director John Torpey interviews historian Tara Zahra, author of Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics Between the World Wars (W.W. Norton, 2023). Zahra reflects on the historical parallels between the current backlash against globalization and the anti-globalist movements of the interwar period. She highlights how economic insecurity, the rise of mass politics, and anxieties over immigration and trade shaped political reactions in both eras, while noting key differences—such as the role of environmentalism today and the absence of a world war in recent memory. Zahra also discusses the collapse of the international economic system in the 1930s, the ideological diversity of anti-globalist movements, and the legacy of Bretton Woods. She proposes that revisiting elements of the post-WWII international order, including regional cooperation and economic stabilization, may offer insight into managing today's fractured global landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/intellectual-history
This week on International Horizons, RBI Director John Torpey interviews historian Tara Zahra, author of Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics Between the World Wars (W.W. Norton, 2023). Zahra reflects on the historical parallels between the current backlash against globalization and the anti-globalist movements of the interwar period. She highlights how economic insecurity, the rise of mass politics, and anxieties over immigration and trade shaped political reactions in both eras, while noting key differences—such as the role of environmentalism today and the absence of a world war in recent memory. Zahra also discusses the collapse of the international economic system in the 1930s, the ideological diversity of anti-globalist movements, and the legacy of Bretton Woods. She proposes that revisiting elements of the post-WWII international order, including regional cooperation and economic stabilization, may offer insight into managing today's fractured global landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/book-of-the-day
My guest today is Ben Samocha, founder and CEO of CryptoJungle, a leading platform for Bitcoin education & Media in Israel. Ben shares his journey from using Bitcoin as a payment tool during his poker days to becoming an educator working with the public, regulators, and policymakers. In this conversation, we explore the role of Bitcoin in the broader financial and political landscape, and why education is essential these days. Ben analyzes the influence of global power shifts on monetary systems, and the emerging financial order involving stablecoins, CBDCs, and the potential for a new Bretton Woods moment. Ben outlines the dangers of institutional co-option, the Bank of Israel's digital shekel, and why the coming years are critical for resisting centralized control and fostering a truly decentralized future.► If you got value, please like, comment, share, follow and support my work. Thank you!-- SPONSORS --►► Get your TREZOR wallet & accessories, with a 5% discount, using my code at checkout (get my discount code from the episode - yep, you'll have to watch it): https://affil.trezor.io/SHUn ►► Join me on June 19-21 at BTC Prague! Code EFRAT = 10% discount: https://pages.btcprague.com/ambassador-efrat-fenigson -- SPECIAL OFFERS –►► Join us at BITCOIN VEGAS! May 27-29 - code EFRAT for 10% off: https://bit.ly/4jVtATE ►► Watch “New Totalitarian Order” conference with Prof. Mattias Desmet & Efrat: https://efenigson.gumroad.com/l/desmet_efrat ►► 10% off on all books & accessories at the “Bitcoin Infinity Store” - use code EFRAT: https://bitcoininfinitystore.com/ ►► Join me in any of these upcoming events: https://www.efrat.blog/p/upcoming-events -- LINKS –Ben's Twitter: https://x.com/bensamocha Ben's Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-samocha/ Efrat's Twitter: https://twitter.com/efenigsonEfrat's Telegram: https://t.me/efenigsonWatch/listen on all platforms: https://linktr.ee/yourethevoiceSupport Efrat's work: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/efenigson Support Efrat with Bitcoin: https://geyser.fund/project/efenigson-- CHAPTERS –00:00 Coming Up...01:15 Intro to Ben and His Role in Israel's Bitcoin Scene05:23 How Ben Orange-Pilled Efrat08:36 Trezor and BTC Prague10:03 Freedom, Censorship, and the Deeper Meaning of Bitcoin13:43 The Israeli Bitcoin Community: Criticism and Cultural Challenges17:34 Ben's Awakening to Fiat and Money Deceptions25:18 Discovering Bitcoin Through Poker32:34 Learning About Bitcoin Through Myths Debunking41:22 Why Is Ben Choosing 'Crypto'?50:35 Ben's Macro Outlook: World War III, Monetary Upheaval, Global Power Shifts57:35 Trump's Strategy and Tariffs1:01:11 The New Monetary Order: USD, Gold, Bitcoin, and the Next Bretton Woods1:11:26 Stablecoins - Another Pillar in the US' New Financial Infrastructure1:13:50 CBDCs - How They Tie Into the New Monetary Order1:23:56 Banking Role in a Bitcoin Reality1:25:38 Resistance to Institutional Adoption and Bitcoin's Growth1:27:41 Past Five Years Started the Great Awakening1:30:09 The Central Bank of Israel and the Digital Shekel (CBDC)1:39:00 Why Do the Next Five Years Matter? The Urgency of Education and Resistance1:42:30 Closing Thoughts, Hope and a Call to Action
#historia #economía Gracias a Borja Montaño @Borjamontano , profesor de Historia Económica, conoceremos el sistema monetario basado en el Oro y el acuerdo de Breton Woods. COMPRA EN AMAZON CON EL ENLACE DE BHM Y AYUDANOS ************** https://amzn.to/3ZXUGQl ************* Si queréis apoyar a Bellumartis Historia Militar e invitarnos a un café o u una cerveza virtual por nuestro trabajo, podéis visitar nuestro PATREON https://www.patreon.com/bellumartis o en PAYPALhttps://www.paypal.me/bellumartis o en BIZUM 656/778/825
Hello Interactors,This week, the European Space Agency launched a satellite to "weigh" Earth's 1.5 trillion trees. It will give scientists deeper insight into forests and their role in the climate — far beyond surface readings. Pretty cool. And it's coming from Europe.Meanwhile, I learned that the U.S. Secretary of Defense — under Trump — had a makeup room installed in the Pentagon to look better on TV. Also pretty cool, I guess. And very American.The contrast was hard to miss. Even with better data, the U.S. shows little appetite for using geographic insight to actually address climate change. Information is growing. Willpower, not so much.So it was oddly clarifying to read a passage Christopher Hobson posted on Imperfect Notes from a book titled America by a French author — a travelogue of softs. Last week I offered new lenses through which to see the world, I figured I'd try this French pair on — to see America, and the world it effects, as he did.PAPER, POWER, AND PROJECTIONI still have a folded paper map of Seattle in the door of my car. It's a remnant of a time when physical maps reflected the reality before us. You unfolded a map and it innocently offered the physical world on a page. The rest was left to you — including knowing how to fold it up again.But even then, not all maps were neutral or necessarily innocent. Sure, they crowned capitals and trimmed borders, but they could also leave things out or would make certain claims. From empire to colony, from mission to market, maps often arrived not to reflect place, but to declare control of it. Still, we trusted it…even if was an illusion.I learned how to interrogate maps in my undergraduate history of cartography class — taught by the legendary cartographer Waldo Tobler. But even with that knowledge, when I was then taught how to make maps, that interrogation was more absent. I confidently believed I was mediating truth. The lines and symbols I used pointed to substance; they signaled a thing. I traced rivers from existing base maps with a pen on vellum and trusted they existed in the world as sure as the ink on the page. I cut out shading for a choropleth map and believed it told a stable story about population, vegetation, or economics. That trust was embodied in representation — the idea that a sign meant something enduring. That we could believe what maps told us.This is the world of semiotics — the study of how signs create meaning. American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce offered a sturdy model: a sign (like a map line) refers to an object (the river), and its meaning emerges in interpretation. Meaning, in this view, is relational — but grounded. A stop sign, a national anthem, a border — they meant something because they pointed beyond themselves, to a world we shared.But there are cracks in this seemingly sturdy model.These cracks pose this question: why do we trust signs in the first place? That trust — in maps, in categories, in data — didn't emerge from neutrality. It was built atop agendas.Take the first U.S. census in 1790. It didn't just count — it defined. Categories like “free white persons,” “all other free persons,” and “slaves” weren't neutral. They were political tools, shaping who mattered and by how much. People became variables. Representation became abstraction.Or Carl Linnaeus, the 18th-century Swedish botanist who built the taxonomies we still use: genus, species, kingdom. His system claimed objectivity but was shaped by distance and empire. Linnaeus never left Sweden. He named what he hadn't seen, classified people he'd never met — sorting humans into racial types based on colonial stereotypes. These weren't observations. They were projections based on stereotypes gathered from travelers, missionaries, and imperial officials.Naming replaced knowing. Life was turned into labels. Biology became filing. And once abstracted, it all became governable, measurable, comparable, and, ultimately, manageable.Maps followed suit.What once lived as a symbolic invitation — a drawing of place — became a system of location. I was studying geography at a time (and place) when Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and GIScience was transforming cartography. Maps weren't just about visual representations; they were spatial databases. Rows, columns, attributes, and calculations took the place of lines and shapes on map. Drawing what we saw turned to abstracting what could then be computed so that it could then be visualized, yes, but also managed.Chris Perkins, writing on the philosophy of mapping, argued that digital cartographies didn't just depict the world — they constituted it. The map was no longer a surface to interpret, but a script to execute. As critical geographers Sam Hind and Alex Gekker argue, the modern “mapping impulse” isn't about understanding space — it's about optimizing behavior through it; in a world of GPS and vehicle automation, the map no longer describes the territory, it becomes it. Laura Roberts, writing on film and geography, showed how maps had fused with cinematic logic — where places aren't shown, but performed. Place and navigation became narrative. New York in cinema isn't a place — it's a performance of ambition, alienation, or energy. Geography as mise-en-scène.In other words, the map's loss of innocence wasn't just technical. It was ontological — a shift in the very nature of what maps are and what kind of reality they claim to represent. Geography itself had entered the domain of simulation — not representing space but staging it. You can simulate traveling anywhere in the world, all staged on Google maps. Last summer my son stepped off the train in Edinburgh, Scotland for the first time in his life but knew exactly where he was. He'd learned it driving on simulated streets in a simulated car on XBox. He walked us straight to our lodging.These shifts in reality over centuries weren't necessarily mistakes. They unfolded, emerged, or evolved through the rational tools of modernity — and for a time, they worked. For many, anyway. Especially for those in power, seeking power, or benefitting from it. They enabled trade, governance, development, and especially warfare. But with every shift came this question: at what cost?FROM SIGNS TO SPECTACLEAs early as the early 1900s, Max Weber warned of a world disenchanted by bureaucracy — a society where rationalization would trap the human spirit in what he called an iron cage. By mid-century, thinkers pushed this further.Michel Foucault revealed how systems of knowledge — from medicine to criminal justice — were entangled with systems of power. To classify was to control. To represent was to discipline. Roland Barthes dissected the semiotics of everyday life — showing how ads, recipes, clothing, even professional wrestling were soaked in signs pretending to be natural.Guy Debord, in the 1967 The Society of the Spectacle, argued that late capitalism had fully replaced lived experience with imagery. “The spectacle,” he wrote, “is not a collection of images, but a social relation among people, mediated by images.”Then came Jean Baudrillard — a French sociologist, media theorist, and provocateur — who pushed the critique of representation to its limit. In the 1980s, where others saw distortion, he saw substitution: signs that no longer referred to anything real. Most vividly, in his surreal, gleaming 1986 travelogue America, he described the U.S. not as a place, but as a performance — a projection without depth, still somehow running.Where Foucault showed that knowledge was power, and Debord showed that images replaced life, Baudrillard argued that signs had broken free altogether. A map might once distort or simplify — but it still referred to something real. By the late 20th century, he argued, signs no longer pointed to anything. They pointed only to each other.You didn't just visit Disneyland. You visited the idea of America — manufactured, rehearsed, rendered. You didn't just use money. You used confidence by handing over a credit card — a symbol of wealth that is lighter and moves faster than any gold.In some ways, he was updating a much older insight by another Frenchman. When Alexis de Tocqueville visited America in the 1830s, he wasn't just studying law or government — he was studying performance. He saw how Americans staged democracy, how rituals of voting and speech created the image of a free society even as inequality and exclusion thrived beneath it. Tocqueville wasn't cynical. He simply understood that America believed in its own image — and that belief gave it a kind of sovereign feedback loop.Baudrillard called this condition simulation — when representation becomes self-contained. When the distinction between real and fake no longer matters because everything is performance. Not deception — orchestration.He mapped four stages of this logic:* Faithful representation – A sign reflects a basic reality. A map mirrors the terrain.* Perversion of reality – The sign begins to distort. Think colonial maps as logos or exclusionary zoning.* Pretending to represent – The sign no longer refers to anything but performs as if it does. Disneyland isn't America — it's the fantasy of America. (ironically, a car-free America)* Pure simulation – The sign has no origin or anchor. It floats. Zillow heatmaps, Uber surge zones — maps that don't reflect the world, but determine how you move through it.We don't follow maps as they were once known anymore. We follow interfaces.And not just in apps. Cities themselves are in various stages of simulation. New York still sells itself as a global center. But in a distributed globalized and digitized economy, there is no center — only the perversion of an old reality. Paris subsidizes quaint storefronts not to nourish citizens, but to preserve the perceived image of Paris. Paris pretending to be Paris. Every city has its own marketing campaign. They don't manage infrastructure — they manage perception. The skyline is a product shot. The streetscape is marketing collateral and neighborhoods are optimized for search.Even money plays this game.The U.S. dollar wasn't always king. That title once belonged to the British pound — backed by empire, gold, and industry. After World War II, the dollar took over, pegged to gold under the Bretton Woods convention — a symbol of American postwar power stability…and perversion. It was forged in an opulent, exclusive, hotel in the mountains of New Hampshire. But designed in the style of Spanish Renaissance Revival, it was pretending to be in Spain. Then in 1971, Nixon snapped the dollar's gold tether. The ‘Nixon Shock' allowed the dollar to float — its value now based not on metal, but on trust. It became less a store of value than a vessel of belief. A belief that is being challenged today in ways that recall the instability and fragmentation of the pre-WWII era.And this dollar lives in servers, not Industrial Age iron vaults. It circulates as code, not coin. It underwrites markets, wars, and global finance through momentum alone. And when the pandemic hit, there was no digging into reserves.The Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet with keystrokes — injecting trillions into the economy through bond purchases, emergency loans, and direct payments. But at the same time, Trump 1.0 showed printing presses rolling, stacks of fresh bills bundled and boxed — a spectacle of liquidity. It was monetary policy as theater. A simulation of control, staged in spreadsheets by the Fed and photo ops by the Executive Branch. Not to reflect value, but to project it. To keep liquidity flowing and to keep the belief intact.This is what Baudrillard meant by simulation. The sign doesn't lie — nor does it tell the truth. It just works — as long as we accept it.MOOD OVER MEANINGReality is getting harder to discern. We believe it to be solid — that it imposes friction. A law has consequences. A price reflects value. A city has limits. These things made sense because they resist us. Because they are real.But maybe that was just the story we told. Maybe it was always more mirage than mirror.Now, the signs don't just point to reality — they also replace it. We live in a world where the image outpaces the institution. Where the copy is smoother than the original. Where AI does the typing. Where meaning doesn't emerge — it arrives prepackaged and pre-viral. It's a kind of seductive deception. It's hyperreality where performance supersedes substance. Presence and posture become authority structured in style.Politics is not immune to this — it's become the main attraction.Trump's first 100 days didn't aim to stabilize or legislate but to signal. Deportation as UFC cage match — staged, brutal, and televised. Tariff wars as a way of branding power — chaos with a catchphrase. Climate retreat cast as perverse theater. Gender redefined and confined by executive memo. Birthright citizenship challenged while sedition pardoned. Even the Gulf of Mexico got renamed. These aren't policies, they're productions.Power isn't passing through law. It's passing through the affect of spectacle and a feed refresh.Baudrillard once wrote that America doesn't govern — it narrates. Trump doesn't manage policy, he manages mood. Like an actor. When America's Secretary of Defense, a former TV personality, has a makeup studio installed inside the Pentagon it's not satire. It's just the simulation, doing what it does best: shining under the lights.But this logic runs deeper than any single figure.Culture no longer unfolds. It reloads. We don't listen to the full album — we lift 10 seconds for TikTok. Music is made for algorithms. Fashion is filtered before it's worn. Selfhood is a brand channel. Identity is something to monetize, signal, or defend — often all at once.The economy floats too. Meme stocks. NFTs. Speculative tokens. These aren't based in value — they're based in velocity. Attention becomes the currency.What matters isn't what's true, but what trends. In hyperreality, reference gives way to rhythm. The point isn't to be accurate. The point is to circulate. We're not being lied to.We're being engaged. And this isn't a bug, it's a feature.Which through a Baudrillard lens is why America — the simulation — persists.He saw it early. Describing strip malls, highways, slogans, themed diners he saw an America that wasn't deep. That was its genius he saw. It was light, fast paced, and projected. Like the movies it so famously exports. It didn't need justification — it just needed repetition.And it's still repeating.Las Vegas is the cathedral of the logic of simulation — a city that no longer bothers pretending. But it's not alone. Every city performs, every nation tries to brand itself. Every policy rollout is scored like a product launch. Reality isn't navigated — it's streamed.And yet since his writing, the mood has shifted. The performance continues, but the music underneath it has changed. The techno-optimism of Baudrillard's ‘80s an ‘90s have curdled. What once felt expansive now feels recursive and worn. It's like a show running long after the audience has gone home. The rager has ended, but Spotify is still loudly streaming through the speakers.“The Kids' Guide to the Internet” (1997), produced by Diamond Entertainment and starring the unnervingly wholesome Jamison family. It captures a moment of pure techno-optimism — when the Internet was new, clean, and family-approved. It's not just a tutorial; it's a time capsule of belief, staged before the dream turned into something else. Before the feed began to feed on us.Trumpism thrives on this terrain. And yet the world is changing around it. Climate shocks, mass displacement, spiraling inequality — the polycrisis has a body count. Countries once anchored to American leadership are squinting hard now, trying to see if there's anything left behind the screen. Adjusting the antenna in hopes of getting a clearer signal. From Latin America to Southeast Asia to Europe, the question grows louder: Can you trust a power that no longer refers to anything outside itself?Maybe Baudrillard and Tocqueville are right — America doesn't point to a deeper truth. It points to itself. Again and again and again. It is the loop. And even now, knowing this, we can't quite stop watching. There's a reason we keep refreshing. Keep scrolling. Keep reacting. The performance persists — not necessarily because we believe in it, but because it's the only script still running.And whether we're horrified or entertained, complicit or exhausted, engaged or ghosted, hired or fired, immigrated or deported, one thing remains strangely true: we keep feeding it. That's the strange power of simulation in an attention economy. It doesn't need conviction. It doesn't need conscience. It just needs attention — enough to keep the momentum alive. The simulation doesn't care if the real breaks down. It just keeps rendering — soft, seamless, and impossible to look away from. Like a dream you didn't choose but can't wake up from.REFERENCESBarthes, R. (1972). Mythologies (A. Lavers, Trans.). Hill and Wang. (Original work published 1957)Baudrillard, J. (1986). America (C. Turner, Trans.). Verso.Debord, G. (1994). The Society of the Spectacle (D. Nicholson-Smith, Trans.). Zone Books. (Original work published 1967)Foucault, M. (1977). Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison (A. Sheridan, Trans.). Vintage Books.Hind, S., & Gekker, A. (2019). On autopilot: Towards a flat ontology of vehicular navigation. In C. Lukinbeal et al. (Eds.), Media's Mapping Impulse. Franz Steiner Verlag.Linnaeus, C. (1735). Systema Naturae (1st ed.). Lugduni Batavorum.Perkins, C. (2009). Philosophy and mapping. In R. Kitchin & N. Thrift (Eds.), International Encyclopedia of Human Geography. Elsevier.Raaphorst, K., Duchhart, I., & van der Knaap, W. (2017). The semiotics of landscape design communication. Landscape Research.Roberts, L. (2008). Cinematic cartography: Movies, maps and the consumption of place. In R. Koeck & L. Roberts (Eds.), Cities in Film: Architecture, Urban Space and the Moving Image. University of Liverpool.Tocqueville, A. de. (2003). Democracy in America (G. Lawrence, Trans., H. Mansfield & D. Winthrop, Eds.). University of Chicago Press. (Original work published 1835)Weber, M. (1958). The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism (T. Parsons, Trans.). Charles Scribner's Sons. (Original work published 1905) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit interplace.io
In this episode , I chat with Brandon Quittem, Lawrence Lepard, Dave Collum, and American HODL in an all-star fourth turning roundtable. We dive deep into generational cycles, societal shifts, economic collapses, and what the peak of this fourth turning might look like. ––– Offers & Discounts ––– ⭐ Get 10% OFF Blockhunters — the ultimate Bitcoin board game. Visit https://blockhuntersgame.com/ and use code btcmatrix at checkout! Get 10% off your ticket for the Bitcoin Conference 2025 in Vegas! Use the promo code MATRIX at https://tickets.b.tc/affiliate/matrix/event/bitcoin-2025 Theya is the world's simplest Bitcoin self-custody solution. Download Theya Now at theya.us/cedric Get up to $100 in Bitcoin on River at river.com/Matrix The best Team Bitcoin merch is at HodlersOfficial.com. Use the code Matrix for a discount on your order. Become a sponsor of the show: https://thebitcoinmatrix.com/sponsors/ ––– Get To Know Today's Guests ––– • Brandon Quittem on X: https://x.com/Bquittem • Lawrence Lepard on X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard • Lawrence Lepard on Nostr: npub1d3f4m9dgvkdjxn26pqzsxn6lpfn78sxwllxyt8mp76q0a9zyyjlswhr4xv • American Hodl on X: https://x.com/americanhodl8 • American Hodl on Nostr: npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs • Dave Collum on X: https://x.com/DavidBCollum ––– Socials ––– • Check out our new website at https://TheBitcoinMatrix.Com • Follow Cedric Youngelman on X: https://x.com/cedyoungelman • Follow The Bitcoin Matrix Podcast on X: https://x.com/_bitcoinmatrix • Follow Cedric Youngelman on Nostr: npub12tq9jxmt707gd5vnce3tqllpm67ktr0mqskcvy58qqa4d074pz9s4ukdcs ––– Chapters ––– 02:11 - Fourth Turning Basics 04:50 - Reaction vs Trigger 06:12 - Start of the Current Fourth Turning 09:17 - Past Fourth Turnings: Civil War, Witches, More 10:52 - Peak Predictions: Collapse or Revolution? 12:56 - Monetary Breakdown & Inflationary Depression 14:51 - Controlled Demolition of the Economy 20:56 - Nuclear Risks and Cold War 2.0 24:51 - Mass Mobilization Catalysts 28:51 - Global Trade Divorce: U.S. vs China 32:08 - Reviving U.S. Manufacturing 35:14 - Dollar Weaponization & Trust Collapse 36:06 - Wealth Transfer: Fiat to Bitcoin 39:00 - Bitcoin as an Elite Revolution 42:51 - Fort Knox: Missing Gold? 44:51 - Bretton Woods 2.0 & Bitcoin Standard 54:51 - Bitcoin in a Post-Fiat World 01:00:51 - Energy, AI, and Decentralization 01:12:51 - BRICS and Global Power Shifts 01:20:51 - Innovation Amidst Collapse 01:24:51 - Bitcoin vs The State 01:30:51 - Preparing for Sovereignty 01:36:51 - Final Fourth Turning Reflections I want to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude to all of you for tuning in, supporting the show, and contributing. Thank you for listening!
Stephan & Vijay discuss the current state of Bitcoin, its market cycle, and its comparison with gold. They explore the implications of geopolitical factors on gold and Bitcoin, the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies, and the evolving liquidity channels in the market. The discussion also touches on speculation in Bitcoin and how it contributes to its growth, while emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying economic theories. They also explore the evolving landscape of Bitcoin, the implications of MNAV (Market Net Asset Value) in the context of Bitcoin companies, and the transformative potential of AI on the economy. AI could lead to hyperabundance, affecting various sectors and potentially changing the role of money. The conversation also touches on the risks posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin's security and the need for proactive measures in the Bitcoin community.Takeaways
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NLW discusses market reactions to US tariff negotiations, potential tariff reductions with China, and Bretton Woods institutions facing criticism from the Trump administration for mission creep. He explores Bitcoin's reduced volatility, increased institutional adoption—including the controversial SoftBank-Tether Bitcoin venture—and ends on Trump's meme coin gala announcement driving speculative crypto behavior. Sponsored by: Crypto Tax Calculator Accurate Crypto Taxes. No Guesswork. Say goodbye to tax season headaches with Crypto Tax Calculator: Generate accurate, CPA-endorsed tax reports fully compliant with IRS rules. Seamlessly integrate with 3000+ wallets, exchanges, and on-chain platforms. Import reports directly into TurboTax or H&R Block, or securely share them with your accountant. Exclusive Offer: Use the code BW2025 to enjoy 30% off all paid plans. Don't miss out - offer expires 15 April 2025! Ledger Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors The Breakdown podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world's crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now on Ledger.com. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW
In this episode, we dive deep into the world of commodity trading with Stephane Bernhard, CEO/CIO of CAM Multi-Strat Asset Management. Drawing from his 30+ years of experience starting at Louis Dreyfus through commodity trading house ETG, Stephane shares how commodity trading has evolved from pure fundamental analysis to today's complex intersection of physical, financial, and systematic trading.The conversation explores the world of commodity houses and physical trading of commodities, before diving into CAM's unique approach to building a commodity-focused multi-strategy fund that bridges physical and financial markets. Stephane details their innovative risk management framework that gives commodity traders more flexibility than traditional pod shops while maintaining portfolio stability. You'll hear why VAR doesn't work for commodity risk management and how they've developed an anti-fragile approach to drawdown management.Throughout the discussion, Stephane weaves in fascinating historical perspective - from his early days in the Madrid sovereign debt crisis to parallels between the end of Bretton Woods and today's shifting monetary landscape. Whether you're interested in commodity markets, multi-strategy fund construction, or the intersection of physical and financial trading, this episode offers unique insights into an increasingly important corner of the investment world – SEND IT!00:00-01:06 = Intro01:07-13:42 = Commodity Trading Houses: Bridging Time and Risk in Global Commodity Markets at Louis Dreyfuss and ETG13:43-29:50 = Commodity Trading Dynamics: Navigating Physical Footprints, Basis Risk, and Market Complexity29:51-40:51 = Constructing a Multi-Strategy Commodity Trading Platform: Exploring ETG's Strategic Vision40:52-53:29= Commodity Market Dynamics: Weather, Volatility, and Global Supply Chains53:30-01:13:51 = Risk Management and Trader Psychology: Mastering the Art of Commodity Trading01:13:52-01:18:50 = Trading Psychology and Market Excitement: Navigating High-Stress Moments01:18:51-01:29:34 = Lessons from the 1971 Gold Standard: Adapting to Historical Market ShiftsFrom the episode: The Secret Club That Runs the WorldFollow along with Stephane on X @TCS_Trader and LinkedIn, and be sure to check out ETG and CAM on LinkedIn as well for more information!Don't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts and our host Jeff at@AttainCap2, orLinkedIn , andFacebook, andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visitwww.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
Ein Wirtschaftsberater von Donald Trump schlägt den Mar-a-Lago-Accord für die Weltwirtschaft vor. Was steckt dahinter? Bo und Marcus fangen ganz vorne an und lernen, dass große Währungsabkommen überraschend oft nach luxoriösen Orten benannt werden. #Währungsabkommen #Goldstandard #BrettonWoods #Plaza**********In dieser Folge:00:02:40 - Today - Stephen Miran und die Theorie hinter dem Mar-a-Lago-Accord00:09:58 - 1944 - Was in Bretton Woods beschlossen wurde00:14:36 - 1971 und 1985 - Nixon, der Goldstandard und das Plaza Hotel00:18:10 - Blick in die Kristallkugel - Was die Pläne der USA für die Zukunft Europas bedeuten (können)00:21:22 - Wahres für Bahres - Das Fazit**********An dieser Folge waren beteiligt: Gesprächspartnerin: Andrea Binder, Politökonomin, FU Berlin Hosts und Autoren: Bo Hyun Kim und Marcus Wolf Faktencheck: Jule Dieterle, Merle Körber, Andreas Schöllig Produktion: Marcell Christmann Redaktion: Anne Göbel**********Die Quellen zur Folge:Stephen Mirans Papier zum Mar-a-Lago-Accord (11/2024)Historische Videoaufnahmen zum Bretton-Woods-Abkommen (1944)Jeffrey Frankel: The Plaza Accord, 30 Years Later**********Weitere Beiträge zum Thema:Breaking Bank: Wie neue Bezahlsysteme Banken herausfordernAuf Crush-Kurs: Wieso viele Dating-Apps in der Krise steckenKryptowährung: Wie Bitcoin durch Rechenpower entstehen **********Habt ihr auch manchmal einen WTF-Moment, wenn es um Wirtschaft und Finanzen geht? Wir freuen uns über eure Themenvorschläge und Feedback an whatthewirtschaft@deutschlandfunknova.de.**********Den Artikel zum Stück findet ihr hier.**********Ihr könnt uns auch auf diesen Kanälen folgen: TikTok und Instagram .
In this episode of Soar Financially, Clive Thompson, a retired Swiss wealth manager with 50 years of experience, reveals the real strategy behind a potential gold revaluation reset. Could the U.S. use a massive gold price reset to erase its debt?We explore the brewing battle between Trump and Powell, the Fed's next move, and why Jerome Powell's sudden exit could spark a gold and equity market boom. From Basel III and COMEX deliveries to Bretton Woods 3.0 and dollar devaluation, Clive connects the dots between central banks, debt relief, and gold manipulation.#Gold #Powell #debtcrisis
In this episode, I chat with American HODL, a legendary voice in the Bitcoin space. He opens up about how Bitcoin helped secure his family's financial future, and why most of us underestimate the radical transformation $100 million Bitcoin will bring. ––– Offers & Discounts ––– ⭐ Get 10% OFF Blockhunters — the ultimate Bitcoin board game. Visit https://blockhuntersgame.com/ and use code btcmatrix at checkout! Get 10% off your ticket for the Bitcoin Conference 2025 in Vegas! Use the promo code MATRIX at https://tickets.b.tc/affiliate/matrix/event/bitcoin-2025 Theya is the world's simplest Bitcoin self-custody solution. Download Theya Now at theya.us/cedric Get up to $100 in Bitcoin on River at river.com/Matrix The best Team Bitcoin merch is at HodlersOfficial.com. Use the code Matrix for a discount on your order. Become a sponsor of the show: https://thebitcoinmatrix.com/sponsors/ ––– Get To Know Today's Guest––– • HODL on X: https://x.com/americanhodl8 • HODL on X: npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs ––– Socials ––– • Check out our new website at https://TheBitcoinMatrix.Com • Follow Cedric Youngelman on X: https://x.com/cedyoungelman • Follow The Bitcoin Matrix Podcast on X: https://x.com/_bitcoinmatrix • Follow Cedric Youngelman on Nostr: npub12tq9jxmt707gd5vnce3tqllpm67ktr0mqskcvy58qqa4d074pz9s4ukdcs ––– Chapters ––– 00:00 - Intro 01:18 – Welcome Back, HODL 03:30 – Bear Market Conviction 04:40 – Trade Wars & Uncertainty 07:16 – Bitcoin as an Infinite Game 09:57 – From Speculating to Saving 11:56 – Orange-Pilling Family 15:37 – Leading with Self-Custody 21:03 – Security & Simple Living 23:47 – Resentment from the Fiat World 26:02 – Emotional Toll of Volatility 29:27 – Spartan Class Bitcoiners 32:37 – Capital Allocation Strategy 35:17 – Rise of the Bitcoin Mafia 37:47 – $100M BTC & Global Shifts 40:59 – ETFs, Self-Custody & Citizenship 45:02 – Governments Want Your Keys 47:52 – Fourth Turning Vibes 50:58 – Bretton Woods 2.0 55:39 – Helping Others with Bitcoin 58:22 – Bitcoin's Emotional Rollercoaster 01:05:02 – Lessons from Past Cycles 01:11:32 – Long-Term Wealth Tactics 01:14:57 – Bitcoin & Relationships 01:18:12 – Prepping for the Bull Run 01:21:27 – Final Wisdom I want to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude to all of you for tuning in, supporting the show, and contributing. Thank you for listening!
“It ends with the banks looking like they did at the end of World War II... half of their book was government bonds,” says R. Christopher Whalen, investment banker and author. In a conversation with Daniela Cambone, he breaks down the systemic risks emerging in the treasury market. “Today the treasury market is basically a carry trade with a lot of hedge funds using 100 to 1 leverage. That's the market for treasury debt,” he explains, pointing to the fragility of the current system. Whalen also argues that the Bretton Woods framework has eroded and that the dollar's dominance is waning. “This dollar Imperium has run its course.” He believes central banks — including the U.S. Federal Reserve — should diversify their reserves to include gold alongside major currencies like the dollar, euro, and yen. He views gold as a strategic reserve asset with untapped financial utility. “I hope... the BIS is going to recognize gold as a high-quality liquid asset... it would become eligible to be collateral in swaps,” he says. Key Topics: - President Trump and Powell were going to cross swords.- The Fed struggles to manage the economy and rates.- Multifamily real estate is the subprime today.- The Fed should be holding gold.- The dollar is attractive because of our marketplace.- National debt has tripled in 15 years.
In this explosive episode of Soar Financially, Dr. Judy Shelton—former economic advisor to President Trump and Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute—joins us to deliver a sharp critique of the Federal Reserve and propose bold reforms that could reshape the global financial system.We unpack the true role of the Fed, gold-backed bonds, currency manipulation, Bretton Woods 2.0, and how to restore monetary integrity in America.-Why is the Fed too powerful?- Could gold-backed 50-year bonds anchor the dollar?- And is the U.S. actually “cheating” in global markets?#Gold #federalreserve #goldstandard ------------
This week, in a special experiment, we've gone live on Twitter Spaces. As Trump's tariffs bite, and the current account deficit zooms to the front of modern political economy, we're revisiting the idea of a new Bancor, a complete resetting of the global monetary system.
Donald Trump is attempting something no leader has done before—unwind the global economic order. In this episode, Financial Times columnist and CNN analyst Rana Foroohar joins us to unpack Trump's economic strategy, the unraveling of Bretton Woods, and whether America is becoming an emerging market. From soaring bond yields to declining dollar strength, we explore what markets are signaling, how business leaders are reacting, and why this may mark the end of the neoliberal era. ------
The seeds of destruction of the world's global order were sewn in 1944 at the Bretton Woods conference. Government plans that were hatched there led directly to the IMF and the World Bank. The people of the United States were locked into a trajectory that would ultimately collapse in failure, why? The answer could explained this way. To carry out a system of coercion and force, it must appear to work, at least for a while. If not, the people won't support it and it wouldn't last long enough to pass on to future generation to carry on the deception. But these schemes always collapse in failure because they are man's attempt to evade reality. To escape the discipline that life naturally imposes on human beings. As Bastiat said, the LAW is perverted so that the few can plunder the many. The problem is that we ended up promoting democracy where everybody votes and now everybody plunders everybody. It's all an attempt to escape the inevitable. There is no free lunch and man must provide for himself and his family. WE have let collectivism and guilt get the best of us and it is coming to a rapid end.Ray Dalio on CNBC on the Structural Issues with the World Orderhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeKu1D1qSR8
Lenin quipped that "there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." The post Liberation Day drama of early April 2025, That Was The Week's Keith Teare suggests, will be remembered as one of those weeks. While the world isn't exactly ending, Keith suggests, the “West” - or at least a post Bretton Woods American centric west - is finished. He may well be right in seeing Trump's clownish tariffs as a symptom of American decline. But if the United States is the past and China the future, then where - Keith and I discuss - does that leave Silicon Valley? What becomes of supposedly pioneering American AI technology in a China centric world? And can traditional Big Tech leviathans like Apple and Google survive the end of the West? FIVE TAKEAWAYS * Shift in global economic power: Our conversation highlights a dramatic change in global trade patterns from 2000 to 2024, with China replacing the US as the dominant trading partner for most countries. This is visualized through maps showing the world changing from predominantly "blue" (US) to "red" (China).* Trump's tariff policy: Keith Teare argues that while Trump's tariffs may seem irrational, they represent a rational (though potentially harmful) attempt to slow America's relative economic decline. He suggests these policies aim to protect America's position even if they shrink the global economic pie.* Impact on Big Tech: We discuss how companies like Apple are vulnerable to tariffs due to their global supply chains, with predictions that an American-made iPhone would cost $3,000-$5,000 instead of $1,000. We also note that even service-oriented tech companies could face European tariffs in retaliation.* Historical significance: Keith characterizes the recent economic shifts as comparable to major historical events like the Bretton Woods agreement, suggesting this represents the end of the post-WWII economic order where America was the unambiguous world leader.* Silicon Valley's political divide: We touch on how Silicon Valley has shifted politically, with many tech elites supporting Trump's "America first" approach, while noting exceptions like Elon Musk who has criticized specific tariff policies. The Palo Alto based Keith observes that AI development remains a bigger topic of conversation in the Valley than politics.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
The Trump Admin has made clear that they end game for tariffs is a total restructuring of the global economic order. As countries start to come to the negotiating table, are we headed for a Bretton Woods 2.0? A Mar-a-Lago accord? Sponsored by: Ledger Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors The Breakdown podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world's crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now on Ledger.com. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW
US President Donald Trump wants to use tariffs as part of a plan to save the dominance of the dollar as the global reserve currency. His top economic advisor Stephen Miran outlined the Trump administration's strategy to force other countries to pay the USA to maintain its imperial financial and military order. Ben Norton explains the idea behind the hypothetical "Mar-a-Lago Accord". VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnajhDMAWVA Topics 0:00 Trump's top economic advisor 0:42 Trump wants to save dollar hegemony 1:04 (CLIP) Trump on US dollar 1:21 Dedollarization 2:01 BRICS 2:46 (CLIP) Trump threatens BRICS 3:15 Tariffs 3:50 Bretton Woods system 4:38 Keynes' Bancor proposal 5:07 US exorbitant privilege 5:39 Nixon shock, gold standard, petrodollar 6:43 Financialization 7:35 Billionaires 8:01 Deindustrialization 8:10 Current account deficit 8:33 Trump advisor Stephen Miran 9:17 Overvaluation of US dollar 10:30 Stephen Miran's plan 11:16 Mar-a-Lago Accord 12:59 Economic nuclear war 14:07 Trump admin's goals 15:20 Paying for US empire 17:30 Trump admin's 5 demands 20:25 (CLIP) Sharing costs of US empire 21:13 China 21:32 (CLIP) Decoupling from China 21:55 Hudson Institute 23:58 US financial crisis of 2008 25:42 Manufacturing 26:02 Trump hits China with 104% tariffs 27:23 Economic game of chicken 27:50 Can USA win trade war? 30:04 (CLIP) Miran: US has leverage over China 30:59 China vows "to fight to the end" 32:00 US economic dependence on China 33:00 Chinese exports 34:01 China's top export destinations 34:36 ASEAN is China's top trading partner 35:16 Indonesia 36:08 China is world's top trading partner 36:54 China's trade with Russia 38:34 Can USA reindustrialize? 38:52 (CLIP) "We can make stuff at home" 39:09 Reindustrialization is very difficult 41:40 Trade war will hurt Americans 42:17 Moving taxes from rich to poor 43:15 Do other countries pay US tariffs? 43:34 Dollar falls 44:38 Yield on US Treasury securities 46:10 Mortgage rate spread 46:42 Credit card interest rate 47:14 Interest payments on US national debt 48:37 Backlash on US economy 49:51 Danger of blowback 50:31 Plaza Accord revisited 51:16 Changes in global economy 52:50 China learned from Japan crisis 54:33 Imperial hubris 55:12 Vietnam in a multipolar world 58:07 Outro
Scarce Assets // Jackson Mikalic on X // Kane McGukin on X // The Mesh PointScarce Assets: a biweekly podcast presented by Onramp which delves into the emergent role of bitcoin in finance professionals' strategies and outlooks. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Scarce Assets provides invaluable insights for wealth managers aiming to outperform their peers in the decades ahead. Finance professionals everywhere know about stocks and bonds, but the macroeconomic outlook requires that serious investors pay close attention to another category: Scarce Assets.00:00-Introduction to Kane McGukin06:18-Understanding Market Dynamics and Bitcoin's Role09:15-The Impact of Central Banks on Financial Systems15:29-The Future of Bitcoin and Digital Currencies18:33-Geopolitical Forces and Economic Restructuring21:17-The Role of Stablecoins in the New Economy32:29-The Utility of Bitcoin and Fiat in Global Transactions38:17-Derivatives and Bitcoin Price Manipulation43:14-Investing in Bitcoin: Strategies and Considerations48:15-Inflation, Liquidity, and Bitcoin's Future52:03-Bitcoin as a Store of Value and Its Liquidity Advantage01:02:45-Outro & DisclaimerPlease subscribe to Onramp Media channels and sign up for weekly Research & Analysis to get access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.
This week we talk about taxes, reciprocity, and recession.We also discuss falling indices, stagflation, and theories of operation.Recommended Book: The Serviceberry by Robin Wall KimmererTranscriptStagflation, which is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is exactly what it sounds like: a combination of those two elements, usually with high levels of unemployment, as well, that can cause a prolonged period of economic sluggishness and strain that slows growth and can even lead to a recession.The term was coined in the UK in the 1960s to describe issues they were facing at the time, but it was globally popularized by the oil shocks of the 1970s, which sparked a period of high prices and slow growth in many countries, including in the US, where inflation boomed, productivity floundered, and economic growth plateaud, leading to a stock market crash in 1973 and 1974.Inflation, unto itself, can be troubling, as it means prices are going up faster than incomes, so the money people earn and have saved is worth less and less each day. That leads to a bunch of negative knock-on effects, which is a big part of why the US Fed has kept interest rates so high, aiming to trim inflation rates back to their preferred level of about 2% as quickly as possible in the wake of inflation surges following the height of the Covid pandemic.Stagnant economic growth is also troubling, as it means lowered GDP, reduced future outlook for an economy, and that also tends to mean less investment in said economy, reduced employment levels—and likely even lower employment levels in the future—and an overall sense of malaise that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, no one feeling particularly upbeat about where their country is going; and that's not great economically, but it can also lead to all sorts of social issues, as people with nothing to look forward to but worse and worse outcomes are more likely to commit crimes or stoke revolutions than their upbeat, optimistic, comfortable kin.The combination of these two elements is more dastardly than just the sum of their two values implies, though, as measures that government agencies might take to curb inflation, like raising interest rates and overall tightening monetary policy, reduces business investment which can lead to unemployment. On the flip-side, though, things a government might do to reduce unemployment, like injecting more money into the economy, tends to spike inflation.It's a lose-lose situation, basically, and that's why government agencies tasked with keeping things moving along steadily go far out of their way to avoid stagflation; it's not easily addressed, and it only really goes away with time, and sometimes a very long time.There are two primary variables that have historically led to stagflation: supply shocks and government policies that reduce output and increase the money supply too rapidly.The stagflation many countries experienced in the 1970s was the result of Middle Eastern oil producing nations cutting off the flow of oil to countries that supported Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, though a sharp increase in money supply and the end of the Bretton Woods money management system, which caused exchange rate issues between global currencies, also contributed, and perhaps even more so than the oil shock.What I'd like to talk about today is another major variable, the implementation of a huge package of new tariffs on pretty much everyone by the US, that many economists are saying could lead to a new period of stagflation, alongside other, more immediate consequences.—A tariff is a type of tax that's imposed on imported goods, usually targeting specific types of goods, or goods from a particular place.Way back in the day these were an important means of funding governments: the US government actually made most of its revenue, about 90% of it, from tariffs before 1863, because there just wasn't a whole of lot other ways for the young country to make money at the time.Following the War of 1812, the US government attempted to double tariffs, but that depleted international trade, which led to less income, not more—gross imports dropped by 71%, and the government scrambled to implement direct and excise taxes, the former of which is the tax a person or business pays that isn't based on transactions, while the latter is a duty that's paid upon the manufacture of something, as opposed to when it's sold.Tariffs resurfaced in the following decades, but accounted for less and less of the government's income as the country's manufacturing base increased, and excise and income taxes made up 63% of the US's federal revenue by 1865.Tax sources have changes a lot over the years, and they vary somewhat from country to country.But the dominant move in the 20th century, especially post-WWII, has been toward free trade, which usually means no or low tariffs on goods being made in one place and sold in another, in part because this tends to lead to more wealth for everyone, on average, at least.This refocus toward globalized free trade resulted in a lot of positives, like being able to specialize and make things where they're cheap and sell them where they're precious, but also some negatives, like the offshoring of jobs—though even those negatives, which sucked for the people who lost their jobs, have been positive for some, as the companies who offshored the jobs did so because it saved them money, the folks who were hired were generally paid more than was possible in their region, previously, and the people consuming the resulting goods were able to get them cheaper than would otherwise be feasible.It's been a mixed bag, then, but the general consensus among economists is that open trade is good because it incentivizes competition and productivity. Governments are less likely to implement protectionist policies to preserve badly performing local business entities from better performing foreign versions of the same, and that means less wasted effort and resources, more options for everyone, and more efficient overall economic operation, which contributes to global flourishing. And not for nothing, nations that trade with each other tend to be less likely to go to war with each other.Now that's a massively simplified version of the argument, but again, that's been the outline for how things are meant to work, and aside from some obvious exceptions—like China's protection of its local tech sector from foreign competition, and the US's protection of its aviation and car industries—it's generally worked as intended, and the world has become massively wealthier during this period compared to before this state of affairs was broadly implemented, post-WWII; there's simply no comparison, the difference is stark.There are renewed concerns about stagflation in the United States, however, because of a big announcement made by US President Trump on April 2, 2025, that slapped substantial and at times simply massive new tariffs on just about everyone, including the country's longest-term allies and most valuable trading partners.On what the president called “Liberation Day,” he announced two new types of tariff: one is a universal 10% import duty on all goods brought into the US, and another that he called a reciprocal tariff on imports from scores of countries, including 15 that will be hit especially hard—a list that includes China, EU nations, Canada, and Japan, among others.The theory of these so-called reciprocal tariffs is that Trump thinks the US is being taken advantage of, as, to use one example that he cited, the US charges a 2.5% tariff on imported cars, while the EU charges a 10% tariff on American cars imported to their union.The primary criticism of this approach, which has been cited by most economists and entities like the World Trade Organization, is that the numbers the US administration apparently used to make this list don't really add up, and seem to include some made-up measures of trade deficits, which some analysts suspect were calculated by AI tools like ChatGPT, as the same incorrect measures are spat out by commonly use chatbots like ChatGPT when they're asked about how to balance these sorts of things. But the important takeaway, however they arrived at these numbers, is that the comparisons used aren't really sensical when you look at the details.Some countries simply can't afford American exports, for instance, while others have no use for them. The idea that a country that can't afford American goods should have astoundingly large tariffs applied to their exports to the US is questionable from the get-go, but it also means the goods they produce, which might be valuable and important for Americans, be they raw materials like food or manufactured goods like car parts, will become more expensive for Americans, either because those Americans have to pay a higher price necessitated by the tax, or because the lower-price supplier is forced out of the market and replaced by a higher-price alternative.In short, the implied balance of these tariffs don't line up with reality, according to essentially everyone except folks working within Trump's administration, and the question then is what the actual motivation behind them might be.The Occam's Razor answer is that Trump and/or people in his administration simply don't understand tariffs and global economics well enough to understand that their theory on the matter is wrong. And many foreign leaders have said these tariffs are not in any way reciprocal, and that the calculation used to draw them up was, in the words of Germany's economic minister, “nonsense.” That's the general consensus of learned people, and the only folks who seem to be saying otherwise are the one's responsible for drawing these tariffs up, and defending them in the press.Things have been pretty stellar for most of the global economy since free trade became the go-to setup for imports and exports, but this administration is acting as if the opposite is true. That might be a feigned misunderstanding, or it might be genuine; they might truly not understand the difference between how things have been post-WWII and how they were back in the 1800s when tariffs were the go-to method of earning government revenue.But in either case, Trump is promising that rewiring the global order, the nature of default international trade in this way, will be good for Americans because rather than serving as a linchpin for that global setup, keeping things orderly by serving as the biggest market in the world, the American economy will be a behemoth that gets what it's owed, even if at the expense of others—a winner among losers who keep playing because they can't afford not to, rather than a possibly slightly less winning winner amongst other winners.This theory seems to have stemmed from a 1980s understanding of things, which is a cultural and economic milieu from which a lot of Trump's views and ideas seem to have originated, despite in many cases having long since been disproved or shown to be incomplete. But it's also a premise that may be more appealing to very wealthy people, because a lot of the negative consequences from these tariffs will be experienced by people in lower economic classes and people from poorer nations, where the price hikes will be excruciating, and folks in the middle class, whose wealth is primarily kept in stocks. Folks in the higher economic echolons, including those making most of these decisions, tend to make and build their wealth via other means, which won't be entirely unimpacted, but will certainly be less hurt by these moves than everyone else.It's also possible, and this seems more likely to me, but it's of course impossible to know the truth of the matter right now, that Trump is implementing a huge version of his go-to negotiating tactic of basically hurting the folks on the other end of a negotiation in order to establish leverage over them, and then starting that negotiation by asking what they'll do for him if he limits or stops the pain.The US is expected to suffer greatly from these tariffs, but other countries, especially those that rely heavily on the US market as their consumer base, and in some cases for a huge chunk of their economy, their total GDP, will suffer even more.There's a good chance many countries, in public or behind closed doors, will look at the numbers and decide that it makes more sense to give Trump and his administration something big, up front, in exchange for a lessening of these tariffs. That's what seems to be happening with Vietnam, already, and Israel, and there's a good chance other nations have already put out feelers to see what he might want in exchange for some preferential treatment in this regard—early reports suggest at least 50 governments have done exactly that since the announcement, though those reports are coming from within the White House, so it's probably prudent to take them with a grain of salt, at this point. That said, this sort of messaging from the White House suggests that the administration might be hoping for a bunch of US-favoring deals and will therefore make a lot of noise about initial negotiations to signal that that's what they want, and that the pain can go away if everyone just kowtows a little and gestures at some new trade policies that favor the US and make Trump look like a master negotiator who's bringing the world to heel.There's been pushback against this potentiality, however, led by China, which has led with its own, very large counter-tariffs rather than negotiating, and the EU looks like it might do the same. If enough governments do this, it could call Trump's bluff while also making these other entities, perhaps especially China, which was first out the door with counter-tariffs and statements about not be cowed by the US's bluster, seem like the natural successors to the US in terms of global economic leadership. It could result in the US giving away all that soft power, basically, and that in turn could realign global trade relationships and ultimately other sorts of relationships, too, in China's favor.One other commonly cited possibility, and this is maybe the grimmest of the three, but it's not impossible, is that Trump and other people in his administration recognize that the world is changing, that China is ascendent and the US is by some metrics not competing in the way it needs to in order to keep up and retain its dominance, and that's true in terms of things like manufacturing and research, but also the potential implications of AI, changing battlefield tactics, and so on. And from that perspective, it maybe makes sense to just shake the game board, knocking over all the pieces rather than trying to win by adhering to what have become common conventions and normal rules of play.If everyone takes a hit, if there's a global recession or depression and everything is knocked asunder because those variables that led to where we are today, with all their associated pros and cons, are suddenly gone, that might lead to a situation in which the US is hurt, but not as badly as everyone else, including entities like China. And because the US did the game board shaking, the US may thus be in a better position as everything settles back into a new state of affairs; a new state of affairs that Trump and his people want to be more favorable to the US, long-term.There's some logic to this thinking, even if it's a very grim, me-first, zero-sum kind of logic. The US economy is less reliant on global trade than the rest of the G20, the wealthiest countries in the world; only about 25% of its GDP is derived from trade, while that number is 37% for China, 63% for France, and a whopping 88% for Germany.Other nations are in a relatively more vulnerable position than the US in a less-open, more tariff-heavy world, then, and that means the US administration may have them over a barrel, making the aforementioned US-favoring negotiations more likely, but also, again, potentially just hurting everyone, but the US less so. And when I say hurting, I mean some countries losing a huge chunk of their economy overnight, triggering a lot more poverty, maybe stagflation and famines, and possibly even revolutions, as people worldwide experience a shocking and sudden decrease in both wealth and future economic outlook.Already, just days after Trump announced his tariffs, global markets are crashing, with US markets on track to record its second-worst three-day decline in history, after only the crash of 1987—so that's worse than even the crashes that followed 9/11, the Covid-19 pandemic, the debt crisis, and many others.Foreign markets are doing even worse, though, with Hong Kong's recently high-flying Hang Seng falling 13% in trading early this week, and Japan's Nikkei dropping 8%.Other market markers are also dropping, the price of oil falling to a pandemic-era level of $60 per barrel, Bitcoin losing 10% in a day, and even the US dollar, which theoretically should rise in a tariff scenario, dropping 0.1%—which suggests investors are planning for a damaging recession, and the US market and currency as a whole might be toxic for a while; which could, in turn, lead to a boom for the rest of the world, the US missing out on that boom.There are also simpler theories, I should mention, that tariffs may be meant to generate more profits to help pay for Trump's expanded tax cuts without requiring he touch the third-rails of Medicare or Social Security, or that they're meant to address the US's booming debt by causing investors to flee to Treasury bills, which has the knock-on effect of reducing the interest rates that have to be paid on government debt.That flight toward Treasuries is already happening, though it seems to be primarily because investors are fleeing the market as stocks collapse in value and everyone's worrying about their future, about stagflation, and about mass layoffs and unemployment.It may be that all or most of these things are true, too, by the way, and that this jumble of events, pros and cons alike, are seen as a net-positive by this administration.For what it's worth, too, the US Presidency doesn't typically get to set things like tariffs—that's congress' responsibility and right. But because Congress is currently controlled by Republicans, they've yet to push back on these tariffs with a veto, and they may not. There are rumblings within the president's party about this, and a lot of statements about how it'll ultimately be good, but that maybe they would have done things differently, but there hasn't been any real action yet, just hedging. And that could remain the case, but if things get bad enough, they could be forced by their constituents to take concrete action on the matter before Trump's promised, theoretical positive outcomes have the chance to emerge, or not.Show Noteshttps://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20060925_RL33665_4a8c6781ce519caa3e6b82f95c269f73021c5fdf.pdfhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/31/tariffs-affect-consumer-spending/https://www.wsj.com/tech/exempt-or-not-the-chip-industry-wont-escape-tariffs-a6c771dbhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebchttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-9d85eb00-1184-11f0-8b11-0da1ebc288e3.htmlhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-democrats-economy-protests-financial-markets-90afa4079acbde1deb223adf070c1e98https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trade-war-explodes-across-world-at-pace-not-seen-in-decades-0b6d6513https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-04/The-Long-Shadow-of-William-McKinley.pdfhttps://x.com/krishnanrohit/status/1907587352157106292https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-stocks-tariffs-trade.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/05/opinion/trump-tariffs-theories.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/asia/vietnam-trump-tariff-delay.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/europe/trade-trump-tariffs-brexit.htmlhttps://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/why-do-domestic-prices-rise-with-tarriffs.htmlhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/how-we-got-liberation-day-look-trumps-past-comments-tariffshttps://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-strategy-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1980s/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/us/politics/trump-tv-stock-market.htmlhttps://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/over-50-countries-push-for-tariff-revisions-will-donald-trump-compromise-heres-what-the-white-house-said/articleshow/120043664.cmshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-tariff-foreign-policy-6934e493https://www.wsj.com/economy/in-matter-of-days-outlook-shifts-from-solid-growth-to-recession-risk-027eb2b4https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Asia-Pacific-stocks-sink-from-Trump-s-tariff-barrage-Hong-Kong-down-13https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-seeks-unity-first-strike-back-trump-tariffs-2025-04-06/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/07/trump-presidency-news-tariffs/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trade-war-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-07/global-rout-carries-whiff-of-panic-as-trump-holds-fast-on-tariffshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflationhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-fed-recent-projections-signal-120900777.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation This is a public episode. 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The Storm Skiing Journal and Podcast is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and to support independent ski journalism, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.WhoTyler Fairbank, General Manager of Jiminy Peak, Massachusetts and CEO of Fairbank GroupRecorded onFebruary 10, 2025 and March 7, 2025About Fairbank GroupFrom their website:The Fairbank Group is driven to build things to last – not only our businesses but the relationships and partnerships that stand behind them. Since 2008, we have been expanding our eclectic portfolio of businesses. This portfolio includes three resorts—Jiminy Peak Mountain Resort, Cranmore Mountain Resort, and Bromley Mountain Ski Resort—and real estate development at all three resorts, in addition to a renewable energy development company, EOS Ventures, and a technology company, Snowgun Technology.About Jiminy PeakClick here for a mountain stats overviewOwned by: Fairbank Group, which also owns Cranmore and operates Bromley (see breakdowns below)Located in: Hancock, MassachusettsYear founded: 1948Pass affiliations:* Ikon Pass: 2 days, with blackouts* Uphill New EnglandClosest neighboring ski areas: Bousquet (:27), Catamount (:49), Butternut (:51), Otis Ridge (:54), Berkshire East (:58), Willard (1:02)Base elevation: 1,230 feetSummit elevation: 2,380 feetVertical drop: 1,150 feetSkiable acres: 167.4Average annual snowfall: 100 inchesTrail count: 42Lift count: 9 (1 six-pack, 2 fixed-grip quads, 3 triples, 1 double, 2 carpets – view Lift Blog's inventory of Jiminy Peak's lift fleet)About CranmoreClick here for a mountain stats overviewOwned by: The Fairbank GroupLocated in: North Conway, New HampshireYear founded: 1937Pass affiliations: * Ikon Pass: 2 days, with blackouts* Uphill New EnglandClosest neighboring ski areas: Attitash (:16), Black Mountain (:18), King Pine (:28), Wildcat (:28), Pleasant Mountain (:33), Bretton Woods (:42)Base elevation: 800 feetSummit elevation: 2,000 feetVertical drop: 1,200 feetSkiable Acres: 170 Average annual snowfall: 80 inchesTrail count: 56 (15 most difficult, 25 intermediate, 16 easier)Lift count: 7 (1 high-speed quad, 1 fixed-grip quad, 2 triples, 1 double, 2 carpets – view Lift Blog's inventory of Cranmore's lift fleet)About BromleyClick here for a mountain stats overviewOwned by: The estate of Joseph O'DonnellOperated by: The Fairbank GroupPass affiliations: Uphill New EnglandLocated in: Peru, VermontClosest neighboring ski areas: Magic Mountain (14 minutes), Stratton (19 minutes)Base elevation: 1,950 feetSummit elevation: 3,284 feetVertical drop: 1,334 feetSkiable Acres: 300Average annual snowfall: 145 inchesTrail count: 47 (31% black, 37% intermediate, 32% beginner)Lift count: 9 (1 high-speed quad, 1 fixed-grip quad, 4 doubles, 1 T-bar, 2 carpets - view Lift Blog's of inventory of Bromley's lift fleet)Why I interviewed himI don't particularly enjoy riding six-passenger chairlifts. Too many people, up to five of whom are not me. Lacking a competent queue-management squad, chairs rise in loads of twos and threes above swarming lift mazes. If you're skiing the West, lowering the bar is practically an act of war. It's all so tedious. Given the option – Hunter, Winter Park, Camelback – I'll hop the parallel two-seater just to avoid the drama.I don't like six-packs, but I sure am impressed by them. Sixers are the chairlift equivalent of a two-story Escalade, or a house with its own private Taco Bell, or a 14-lane expressway. Like damn there's some cash floating around this joint.Sixers are common these days: America is home to 107 of them. But that wasn't always so. Thirty-two of these lifts came online in just the past three years. Boyne Mountain, Michigan built the first American six-pack in 1992, and for three years, it was the only such lift in the nation (and don't think they didn't spend every second reminding us of it). The next sixer rose at Stratton, in 1995, but 18 of the next 19 were built in the West. In 2000, Jiminy Peak demolished a Riblet double and dropped the Berkshire Express in its place.For 26 years, Jiminy Peak has owned the only sixer in the State of Massachusetts (Wachusett will build the second this summer). Even as they multiply, the six-pack remains a potent small-mountain status symbol: Vail owns 31 or them, Alterra 30. Only 10 independents spin one. Sixers are expensive to build, expensive to maintain, difficult to manage. To build such a machine is to declare: we are different, we can handle this, this belongs here and so does your money.Sixty years ago, Jiminy Peak was a rump among a hundred poking out of the Berkshires. It would have been impossible to tell, in 1965, which among these many would succeed. Plenty of good ski areas failed since. Jiminy is among the last mountains standing, a survival-of-the-fittest tale punctuated, at the turn of the century, by the erecting of a super lift that was impossible to look away from. That neighboring Brodie, taller and equal-ish in size to Jiminy, shuttered permanently two years later, after a 62-year run as a New England staple, was probably not a coincidence (yes, I'm aware that the Fairbanks themselves bought and closed Brodie). Jiminy had planted its 2,800-skier-per-hour flag on the block, and everyone noticed and no one could compete.The Berkshire Express is not the only reason Jiminy Peak thrives in a 21st century New England ski scene defined by big companies, big passes, and big crowds. But it's the best single emblem of a keep-moving philosophy that, over many decades, transformed a rust-bucket ski area into a glimmering ski resort. That meant snowmaking before snowmaking was cool, building places to stay on the mountain in a region of day-drivers, propping a wind turbine on the ridge to offset dependence on the energy grid.Non-ski media are determined to describe America's lift-served skiing evolution in terms of climate change, pointing to the shrinking number of ski areas since the era when any farmer with a backyard haystack and a spare tractor engine could run skiers uphill for a nickel. But this is a lazy narrative (America offers a lot more skiing now than it did 30 years ago). Most American ski areas – perhaps none – have failed explicitly because of climate change. At least not yet. Most failed because running a ski area is hard and most people are bad at it. Jiminy, once surrounded by competitors, now stands alone. Why? That's what the world needs to understand.What we talked aboutThe impact of Cranmore's new Fairbank Lodge; analyzing Jiminy's village-building past to consider Cranmore's future; Bromley post-Joe O'Donnell (RIP); Joe's legacy – “just an incredible person, great guy”; taking the long view; growing up at Jiminy Peak in the wild 1970s; Brian Fairbank's legacy building Jiminy Peak – with him, “anything is possible”; how Tyler ended up leading the company when he at one time had “no intention of coming back into the ski business”; growing Fairbank Group around Jiminy; surviving and recovering from a stroke – “I had this thing growing in me my entire life that I didn't realize”; carrying on the family legacy; why Jiminy and Cranmore joined the Ikon Pass as two-day partners, and whether either mountain could join as full partners; why Bromley didn't join Ikon; the importance of New York City to Jiminy Peak and Boston to Cranmore; why the ski areas won't be direct-to-lift with Ikon right away; are the Fairbank resorts for sale?; would Fairbank buy more?; the competitive advantage of on-mountain lodging; potential Jiminy lift upgrades; why the Berkshire Express sixer doesn't need an upgrade of the sort that Cranmore and Bromley's high-speed quads received; why Jiminy runs a fixed-grip triple parallel to its high-speed six; where the mountain's next high-speed lift could run; and Jiminy Peak expansion potential.What I got wrong* I said that I didn't know which year Jiminy Peak installed their wind turbine – it was 2007. Berkshire East built its machine in 2010 and activated it in 2011.* When we recorded the Ikon addendum, Cranmore and Jiminy Peak had not yet offered any sort of Ikon Pass discount to their passholders, but Tyler promised details were coming. Passholders can now find offers for a discounted ($229) three-day Ikon Session pass on either ski area's website.Why now was a good time for this interviewFor all the Fairbanks' vision in growing Jiminy from tumbleweed into redwood, sprinting ahead on snowmaking and chairlifts and energy, the company has been slow to acknowledge the largest shift in the consumer-to-resort pipeline this century: the shift to multi-mountain passes. Even their own three mountains share just one day each for sister resort passholders.That's not the same thing as saying they've been wrong to sit and wait. But it's interesting. Why has this company that's been so far ahead for so long been so reluctant to take part in what looks to be a permanent re-ordering of the industry? And why have they continued to succeed in spite of this no-thanks posture?Or so my thinking went when Tyler and I scheduled this podcast a couple of months ago. Then Jiminy, along with sister resort Cranmore, joined the Ikon Pass. Yes, just as a two-day partner in what Alterra is labeling a “bonus” tier, and only on the full Ikon Pass, and with blackout dates. But let's be clear about this: Jiminy Peak and Cranmore joined the Ikon Pass.Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), for me and my Pangea-paced editing process, we'd recorded the bulk of this conversation several weeks before the Ikon announcement. So we recorded a post-Ikon addendum, which explains the mid-podcast wardrobe change.It will be fascinating to observe, over the next decade, how the remaining holdouts manage themselves in the Epkon-atronic world that is not going away. Will big indies such as Jackson Hole and Alta eventually eject the pass masses as a sort of high-class differentiator? Will large regional standouts like Whitefish and Bretton Woods and Baker and Wolf Creek continue to stand alone in a churning sea of joiners? Or will some economic cataclysm force a re-ordering of the companies piloting these warships, splintering them into woodchips and resetting us back to some version of 1995, where just about every ski area was its own ski area doing battle against every other ski area?I have guesses, but no answers, and no power to do anything, really, other than to watch and ask questions of the Jiminy Peaks of the world as they decide where they fit, and how, and when, into this bizarre and rapidly changing lift-served skiing world that we're all gliding through.Why you should ski Jiminy PeakThere are several versions of each ski area. The trailmap version, cartoonish and exaggerated, designed to be evocative as well as practical, a guide to reality that must bend it to help us understand it. There's the Google Maps version, which straightens out the trailmap but ditches the order and context – it is often difficult to tell, from satellite view, which end of the hill is the top or the bottom, where the lifts run, whether you can walk to the lifts from the parking lot or need to shuttlebus it. There is the oral version, the one you hear from fellow chairlift riders at other resorts, describing their home mountain or an epic day or a secret trail, a vibe or a custom, the thing that makes the place a thing.But the only version of a ski area that matters, in the end, is the lived one. And no amount of research or speculation or YouTube-Insta vibing can equal that. Each mountain is what each mountain is. Determining why they are that way and how that came to be is about 80 percent of why I started this newsletter. And the best mountains, I've found, after skiing hundreds of them, are the ones that surprise you.On paper, Jiminy Peak does not look that interesting: a broad ridge, flat across, a bunch of parallel lifts and runs, a lot of too-wide-and-straight-down. But this is not how it skis. Break left off the sixer and it's go-forever, line after line dropping steeply off a ridge. Down there, somewhere, the Widow White's lift, a doorway to a mini ski area all its own, shooting off, like Supreme at Alta, into a twisting little realm with the long flat runout. Go right off the six-pack and skiers find something else, a ski area from a different time, a trunk trail wrapping gently above a maze of twisting, tangled snow-streets, dozens of potential routes unfolding, gentle but interesting, long enough to inspire a sense of quest and journey.This is not the mountain for everyone. I wish Jiminy had more glades, that they would spin more lifts more often as an alternative to Six-Pack City. But we have Berkshire East for cowboy skiing. Jiminy, an Albany backyarder that considers itself worthy of a $1,051 adult season pass, is aiming for something more buffed and burnished than a typical high-volume city bump. Jiminy doesn't want to be Mountain Creek, NYC's hedonistic free-for-all, or Wachusett, Boston's high-volume, low-cost burner. It's aiming for a little more resort, a little more country club, a little more it-costs-what-it-costs sorry-not-sorry attitude (with a side of swarming kids).Podcast NotesOn other Fairbank Group podcastsOn Joe O'DonnellA 2005 Harvard Business School profile of O'Donnell, who passed away on Jan. 7, 2024 at age 79, gives a nice overview of his character and career:When Joe O'Donnell talks, people listen. Last spring, one magazine ranked him the most powerful person in Boston-head of a privately held, billion-dollar company he built practically from scratch; friend and advisor to politicians of both parties, from Boston's Democratic Mayor Tom Menino to the Bay State's Republican Governor Mitt Romney (MBA '74); member of Harvard's Board of Overseers; and benefactor to many good causes. Not bad for a "cop's kid" who grew up nearby in the blue-collar city of Everett.Read the rest…On Joe O'Donnell “probably owning more ski areas than anyone alive”I wasn't aware of the extent of Joe O'Donnell's deep legacy of ski area ownership, but New England Ski History documents his stints as at least part owner of Magic Mountain VT, Timber Ridge (now defunct, next-door to and still skiable from Magic), Jiminy, Mt. Tom (defunct), and Brodie (also lost). He also served Sugar Mountain, North Carolina as a vendor for years.On stroke survivalKnow how to BE FAST by spending five second staring at this:More, from the CDC.On Jiminy joining the Ikon PassI covered this extensively here:The Storm explores the world of lift-served skiing year-round. Join us. Get full access to The Storm Skiing Journal and Podcast at www.stormskiing.com/subscribe
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 247 to discuss tariffs, markets, and the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Chris Whalen explains why the tariff debate is largely a distraction - part of Trump's "shock and awe" strategy to force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms as America attempts to end the Bretton Woods system after 75 years. He sees credit deterioration emerging in auto loans and credit cards while warning about multi-family housing defaults, particularly in smaller urban properties where market indicators show values 50% below their last sale. Despite market fears, Whalen believes the bond market is already cutting rates regardless of Fed action, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.94% due to strong demand for risk-free collateral and Treasury's efforts to reduce auction sizes. He predicts financial consolidation will continue, pointing to the mortgage industry shrinking to just five major lender/servicer groups, while suggesting investors should look for stock opportunities despite current volatility.Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XStanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ 0:00 Introduction1:27 Tariffs 3:03 Market reaction assessment5:11 Investment strategy amid volatility7:40 Historical context of tariffs10:37 Main Street vs Wall Street priorities11:17 Impact and distribution of tariff costs13:30 Consumer credit and lending trends15:34 Multi-family housing defaults17:36 Real estate overbuilding concerns18:17 Consumer recession outlook20:46 Job market and recession dynamics22:57 Fed outlook and rate environment24:52 Balance sheet impact discussion26:56 Treasury market outlook29:36 Client questions about market positioning30:57 Closing remarks and contact information
Global macro commentator and gold advocate Mario Innecco joins us for an eye-opening conversation on the accelerating unraveling of our monetary system. From hyperinflation and default to the role of gold in a potential Bretton Woods 2.0, Mario shares unfiltered insights on what's really driving global markets. We discuss the collapse of fiat currency, central bank credibility, the real reason gold is surging, and how silver remains the “banker's kryptonite.” Whether by design or dysfunction, a new financial era is unfolding — and Mario breaks down what it means for investors navigating extreme macro volatility.#gold #hyperinflation #macroeconomics---------------------
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For a limited time, upgrade to ‘The Storm's' paid tier for $5 per month or $55 per year. You'll also receive a free year of Slopes Premium, a $29.99 value - valid for annual subscriptions only. Monthly subscriptions do not qualify for free Slopes promotion. Valid for new subscriptions only.WhoIain Martin, Host of The Ski PodcastRecorded onJanuary 30, 2025About The Ski PodcastFrom the show's website:Want to [know] more about the world of skiing? The Ski Podcast is a UK-based podcast hosted by Iain Martin.With different guests every episode, we cover all aspects of skiing and snowboarding from resorts to racing, Ski Sunday to slush.In 2021, we were voted ‘Best Wintersports Podcast‘ in the Sports Podcast Awards. In 2023, we were shortlisted as ‘Best Broadcast Programme' in the Travel Media Awards.Why I interviewed himWe did a swap. Iain hosted me on his show in January (I also hosted Iain in January, but since The Storm sometimes moves at the pace of mammal gestation, here we are at the end of March; Martin published our episode the day after we recorded it).But that's OK (according to me), because our conversation is evergreen. Martin is embedded in EuroSki the same way that I cycle around U.S. AmeriSki. That we wander from similarly improbable non-ski outposts – Brighton, England and NYC – is a funny coincidence. But what interested me most about a potential podcast conversation is the Encyclopedia EuroSkiTannica stored in Martin's brain.I don't understand skiing in Europe. It is too big, too rambling, too interconnected, too above-treeline, too transit-oriented, too affordable, too absent the Brobot ‘tude that poisons so much of the American ski experience. The fact that some French idiot is facing potential jail time for launching a snowball into a random grandfather's skull (filming the act and posting it on TikTok, of course) only underscores my point: in America, we would cancel the grandfather for not respecting the struggle so obvious in the boy's act of disobedience. In a weird twist for a ski writer, I am much more familiar with summer Europe than winter Europe. I've skied the continent a couple of times, but warm-weather cross-continental EuroTreks by train and by car have occupied months of my life. When I try to understand EuroSki, my brain short-circuits. I tease the Euros because each European ski area seems to contain between two and 27 distinct ski areas, because the trail markings are the wrong color, because they speak in the strange code of the “km” and “cm” - but I'm really making fun of myself for Not Getting It. Martin gets it. And he good-naturedly walks me through a series of questions that follow this same basic pattern: “In America, we charge $109 for a hamburger that tastes like it's been pulled out of a shipping container that went overboard in 1944. But I hear you have good and cheap food in Europe – true?” I don't mind sounding like a d*****s if the result is good information for all of us, and thankfully I achieved both of those things on this podcast.What we talked aboutThe European winter so far; how a UK-based skier moves back and forth to the Alps; easy car-free travel from the U.S. directly to Alps ski areas; is ski traffic a thing in Europe?; EuroSki 101; what does “ski area” mean in Europe; Euro snow pockets; climate change realities versus media narratives in Europe; what to make of ski areas closing around the Alps; snowmaking in Europe; comparing the Euro stereotype of the leisurely skier to reality; an aging skier population; Euro liftline queuing etiquette and how it mirrors a nation's driving culture; “the idea that you wouldn't bring the bar down is completely alien to me; I mean everybody brings the bar down on the chairlift”; why an Epic or Ikon Pass may not be your best option to ski in Europe; why lift ticket prices are so much cheaper in Europe than in the U.S.; Most consumers “are not even aware” that Vail has started purchasing Swiss resorts; ownership structure at Euro resorts; Vail to buy Verbier?; multimountain pass options in Europe; are Euros buying Epic and Ikon to ski locally or to travel to North America?; must-ski European ski areas; Euro ski-guide culture; and quirky ski areas.What I got wrongWe discussed Epic Pass' lodging requirement for Verbier, which is in effect for this winter, but which Vail removed for the 2025-26 ski season.Why now was a good time for this interviewI present to you, again, the EuroSki Chart – a list of all 26 European ski areas that have aligned themselves with a U.S.-based multi-mountain pass:The large majority of these have joined Ski NATO (a joke, not a political take Brah), in the past five years. And while purchasing a U.S. megapass is not necessary to access EuroHills in the same way it is to ski the Rockies – doing so may, in fact, be counterproductive – just the notion of having access to these Connecticut-sized ski areas via a pass that you're buying anyway is enough to get people considering a flight east for their turns.And you know what? They should. At this point, a mass abandonment of the Mountain West by the tourists that sustain it is the only thing that may drive the region to seriously reconsider the robbery-by-you-showed-up-here-all-stupid lift ticket prices, car-centric transit infrastructure, and sclerotic building policies that are making American mountain towns impossibly expensive and inconvenient to live in or to visit. In many cases, a EuroSkiTrip costs far less than an AmeriSki trip - especially if you're not the sort to buy a ski pass in March 2025 so that you can ski in February 2026. And though the flights will generally cost more, the logistics of airport-to-ski-resort-and-back generally make more sense. In Europe they have trains. In Europe those trains stop in villages where you can walk to your hotel and then walk to the lifts the next morning. In Europe you can walk up to the ticket window and trade a block of cheese for a lift ticket. In Europe they put the bar down. In Europe a sandwich, brownie, and a Coke doesn't cost $152. And while you can spend $152 on a EuroLunch, it probably means that you drank seven liters of wine and will need a sled evac to the village.“Oh so why don't you just go live there then if it's so perfect?”Shut up, Reductive Argument Bro. Everyplace is great and also sucks in its own special way. I'm just throwing around contrasts.There are plenty of things I don't like about EuroSki: the emphasis on pistes, the emphasis on trams, the often curt and indifferent employees, the “injury insurance” that would require a special session of the European Union to pay out a claim. And the lack of trees. Especially the lack of trees. But more families are opting for a week in Europe over the $25,000 Experience of a Lifetime in the American West, and I totally understand why.A quote often attributed to Winston Churchill reads, “You can always trust the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the alternatives.” Unfortunately, it appears to be apocryphal. But I wish it wasn't. Because it's true. And I do think we'll eventually figure out that there is a continent-wide case study in how to retrofit our mountain towns for a more cost- and transit-accessible version of lift-served skiing. But it's gonna take a while.Podcast NotesOn U.S. ski areas opening this winter that haven't done so “in a long time”A strong snow year has allowed at least 11 U.S. ski areas to open after missing one or several winters, including:* Cloudmont, Alabama (yes I'm serious)* Pinnacle, Maine* Covington and Sault Seal, ropetows outfit in Michigan's Upper Peninsula* Norway Mountain, Michigan – resurrected by new owner after multi-year closure* Tower Mountain, a ropetow bump in Michigan's Lower Peninsula* Bear Paw, Montana* Hatley Pointe, North Carolina opened under new ownership, who took last year off to gut-renovate the hill* Warner Canyon, Oregon, an all-natural-snow, volunteer-run outfit, opened in December after a poor 2023-24 snow year.* Bellows Falls ski tow, a molehill run by the Rockingham Recreation in Vermont, opened for the first time in five years after a series of snowy weeks across New England* Lyndon Outing Club, another volunteer-run ropetow operation in Vermont, sat out last winter with low snow but opened this yearOn the “subway map” of transit-accessible Euro skiingI mean this is just incredible:The map lives on Martin's Ski Flight Free site, which encourages skiers to reduce their carbon footprints. I am not good at doing this, largely because such a notion is a fantasy in America as presently constructed.But just imagine a similar system in America. The nation is huge, of course, and we're not building a functional transcontinental passenger railroad overnight (or maybe ever). But there are several areas of regional density where such networks could, at a minimum, connect airports or city centers with destination ski areas, including:* Reno Airport (from the east), and the San Francisco Bay area (to the west) to the ring of more than a dozen Tahoe resorts (or at least stops at lake- or interstate-adjacent Sugar Bowl, Palisades, Homewood, Northstar, Mt. Rose, Diamond Peak, and Heavenly)* Denver Union Station and Denver airport to Loveland, Keystone, Breck, Copper, Vail, Beaver Creek, and - a stretch - Aspen and Steamboat, with bus connections to A-Basin, Ski Cooper, and Sunlight* SLC airport east to Snowbird, Alta, Solitude, Brighton, Park City, and Deer Valley, and north to Snowbasin and Powder Mountain* Penn Station in Manhattan up along Vermont's Green Mountain Spine: Mount Snow, Stratton, Bromley, Killington, Pico, Sugarbush, Mad River Glen, Bolton Valley, Stowe, Smugglers' Notch, Jay Peak, with bus connections to Magic and Middlebury Snowbowl* Boston up the I-93 corridor: Tenney, Waterville Valley, Loon, Cannon, and Bretton Woods, with a spur to Conway and Cranmore, Attitash, Wildcat, and Sunday River; bus connections to Black New Hampshire, Sunapee, Gunstock, Ragged, and Mount AbramYes, there's the train from Denver to Winter Park (and ambitions to extend the line to Steamboat), which is terrific, but placing that itsy-bitsy spur next to the EuroSystem and saying “look at our neato train” is like a toddler flexing his toy jet to the pilots as he boards a 757. And they smile and say, “Whoa there, Shooter! Now have a seat while we burn off 4,000 gallons of jet fuel accelerating this f****r to 500 miles per hour.”On the number of ski areas in EuropeI've detailed how difficult it is to itemize the 500-ish active ski areas in America, but the task is nearly incomprehensible in Europe, which has as many as eight times the number of ski areas. Here are a few estimates:* Skiresort.info counts 3,949 ski areas (as of today; the number changes daily) in Europe: list | map* Wikipedia doesn't provide a number, but it does have a very long list* Statista counts a bit more than 2,200, but their list excludes most of Eastern EuropeOn Euro non-ski media and climate change catastropheOf these countless European ski areas, a few shutter or threaten to each year. The resulting media cycle is predictable and dumb. In The Snow concisely summarizes how this pattern unfolds by analyzing coverage of the recent near loss of L'Alpe du Grand Serre, France (emphasis mine):A ski resort that few people outside its local vicinity had ever heard of was the latest to make headlines around the world a month ago as it announced it was going to cease ski operations.‘French ski resort in Alps shuts due to shortage of snow' reported The Independent, ‘Another European ski resort is closing due to lack of snow' said Time Out, The Mirror went for ”Devastation” as another European ski resort closes due to vanishing snow‘ whilst The Guardian did a deeper dive with, ‘Fears for future of ski tourism as resorts adapt to thawing snow season.' The story also appeared in dozens more publications around the world.The only problem is that the ski area in question, L'Alpe du Grand Serre, has decided it isn't closing its ski area after all, at least not this winter.Instead, after the news of the closure threat was publicised, the French government announced financial support, as did the local municipality of La Morte, and a number of major players in the ski industry. In addition, a public crowdfunding campaign raised almost €200,000, prompting the officials who made the original closure decision to reconsider. Things will now be reassessed in a year's time.There has not been the same global media coverage of the news that L'Alpe du Grand Serre isn't closing after all.It's not the first resort where money has been found to keep slopes open after widespread publicity of a closure threat. La Chapelle d'Abondance was apparently on the rocks in 2020 but will be fully open this winter and similarly Austria's Heiligenblut which was said to be at risk of permanently closure in the summer will be open as normal.Of course, ski areas do permanently close, just like any business, and climate change is making the multiple challenges that smaller, lower ski areas face, even more difficult. But in the near-term bigger problems are often things like justifying spends on essential equipment upgrades, rapidly increasing power costs and changing consumer habits that are the bigger problems right now. The latter apparently exacerbated by media stories implying that ski holidays are under severe threat by climate change.These increasingly frequent stories always have the same structure of focusing on one small ski area that's in trouble, taken from the many thousands in the Alps that few regular skiers have heard of. The stories imply (by ensuring that no context is provided), that this is a major resort and typical of many others. Last year some reports implied, again by avoiding giving any context, that a ski area in trouble that is actually close to Rome, was in the Alps.This is, of course, not to pretend that climate change does not pose an existential threat to ski holidays, but just to say that ski resorts have been closing for many decades for multiple reasons and that most of these reports do not give all the facts or paint the full picture.On no cars in ZermattIf the Little Cottonwood activists really cared about the environment in their precious canyon, they wouldn't be advocating for alternate rubber-wheeled transit up to Alta and Snowbird – they'd be demanding that the road be closed and replaced by a train or gondola or both, and that the ski resorts become a pedestrian-only enclave dotted with only as many electric vehicles as it took to manage the essential business of the towns and the ski resorts.If this sounds improbable, just look to Zermatt, which has banned gas cars for decades. Skiers arrive by train. Nearly 6,000 people live there year-round. It is amazing what humans can build when the car is considered as an accessory to life, rather than its central organizing principle.On driving in EuropeDriving in Europe is… something else. I've driven in, let's see: Iceland, Portugal, Spain, France, Switzerland, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, and Montenegro. That last one is the scariest but they're all a little scary. Drivers' speeds seem to be limited by nothing other than physics, passing on blind curves is common even on mountain switchbacks, roads outside of major arterials often collapse into one lane, and Euros for some reason don't believe in placing signs at intersections to indicate street names. Thank God for GPS. I'll admit that it's all a little thrilling once the disorientation wears off, and there are things to love about driving in Europe: roundabouts are used in place of traffic lights wherever possible, the density of cars tends to be less (likely due to the high cost of gas and plentiful mass transit options), sprawl tends to be more contained, the limited-access highways are extremely well-kept, and the drivers on those limited-access highways actually understand what the lanes are for (slow, right; fast, left).It may seem contradictory that I am at once a transit advocate and an enthusiastic road-tripper. But I've lived in New York City, home of the United States' best mass-transit system, for 23 years, and have owned a car for 19 of them. There is a logic here: in general, I use the subway or my bicycle to move around the city, and the car to get out of it (this is the only way to get to most ski areas in the region, at least midweek). I appreciate the options, and I wish more parts of America offered a better mix.On chairs without barsIt's a strange anachronism that the United States is still home to hundreds of chairlifts that lack safety bars. ANSI standards now require them on new lift builds (as far as I can tell), but many chairlifts built without bars from the 1990s and earlier appear to have been grandfathered into our contemporary system. This is not the case in the Eastern U.S. where, as far as I'm aware, every chairlift with the exception of a handful in Pennsylvania have safety bars – New York and many New England states require them by law (and require riders to use them). Things get dicey in the Midwest, which has, as a region, been far slower to upgrade its lift fleets than bigger mountains in the East and West. Many ski areas, however, have retrofit their old lifts with bars – I was surprised to find them on the lifts at Sundown, Iowa; Chestnut, Illinois; and Mont du Lac, Wisconsin, for example. Vail and Alterra appear to retrofit all chairlifts with safety bars once they purchase a ski area. But many ski areas across the Mountain West still spin old chairs, including, surprisingly, dozens of mountains in California, Oregon, and Washington, states that tends to have more East Coast-ish outlooks on safety and regulation.On Compagnie des AlpesAccording to Martin, the closest thing Europe has to a Vail- or Alterra-style conglomerate is Compagnie des Alpes, which operates (but does not appear to own) 10 ski areas in the French Alps, and holds ownership stakes in five more. It's kind of an amazing list:Here's the company's acquisition timeline, which includes the ski areas, along with a bunch of amusement parks and hotels:Clearly the path of least resistance to a EuroVail conflagration would be to shovel this pile of coal into the furnace. Martin referenced Tignes' forthcoming exit from the group, to join forces with ski resort Sainte-Foy on June 1, 2026 – teasing a smaller potential EuroVail acquisition. Tignes, however, would not be the first resort to exit CdA's umbrella – Les 2 Alpes left in 2020.On EuroSkiPassesThe EuroMegaPass market is, like EuroSkiing itself, unintelligible to Americans (at least to this American). There are, however, options. Martin offers the Swiss-centric Magic Pass as perhaps the most prominent. It offers access to 92 ski areas (map). You are probably expecting me to make a chart. I will not be making a chart.S**t I need to publish this article before I cave to my irrepressible urge to make a chart.OK this podcast is already 51 days old do not make a chart you moron.I think we're good here.I hope.I will also not be making a chart to track the 12 ski resorts accessible on Austria's Ski Plus City Pass Stubai Innsbruck Unlimited Freedom Pass.The Storm explores the world of lift-served skiing year-round. Join us. Get full access to The Storm Skiing Journal and Podcast at www.stormskiing.com/subscribe
From this week's Moneyweek Magazine …Two rumours have been swirling around the gold markets for many years. Some have called them conspiracy theories. Others note that conspiracy theories often prove true. What's the difference between conspiracy and truth? About 30 years.The first is that China has far more gold than it says it does. We actually now know this to be true. The other is that America has far less than the 8,133 tonnes of gold it says it possesses.This rumour has been doing the rounds since 1971, when Peter Beter, a lawyer and financial adviser to former president John F. Kennedy, said he had been informed that gold in Fort Knox had been removed. He went on to write a best-selling book about it: The Conspiracy Against the Dollar.The problem is a total lack of transparency on the part of the US authorities, something that according to current US president Donald Trump, and the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk, will not be the case for much longer.Roosevelt triggers a boomBut to understand this situation we need to go back in time, all the way to 1933, when US president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously devalued the US dollar and revalued gold upwards by 70%, from $20 an ounce (oz) to $35/oz, in order to bolster growth. US gold reserves would increase to unprecedented levels in the next 15 years.Some of the gold came from US citizens. It was now illegal for them to own gold and they had to hand any they owned over to the authorities. Some came from the fact that the government then bought all US mined supply (the upwards revaluation of gold triggered a mining boom) and any gold imported to the US assay office. The US even began buying gold on foreign markets to protect the new higher price.Thus US official holdings in 1939 on the eve of World War II totalled 15,679 tonnes. They would only increase. With Nazi invasions, European nations sent all the gold they could across the Atlantic, either for safekeeping or to buy essential supplies; 1949 saw the high watermark of US gold holdings – 22,000 tonnes, as much as half of all the gold ever mined.In July 1944, with it clear that the Allies were going to win the war, representatives from the 44 Allied nations met at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference to design a new system of money for the new world order.International accounts would be settled in dollars, and those dollars were convertible to gold at $35/oz. Countries had to maintain exchange rates within 1% of the US dollar. In effect, the US was on a gold standard, and the rest of the world was on a dollar standard.The system relied on the integrity of the US dollar to work, and that integrity was in question, even before the end of the war. The June 1945 Federal Reserve Act reduced required gold reserves for notes outstanding from 40% to 25%, and against deposits from 35% to 25%. Between 1944 and 1954, because of increased supply, the dollar lost a third of its purchasing power, though the $35 Bretton Woods price remained.“Six major European countries,along with the UK, co-ordinated sales to suppress the gold price”US government spending was soaring, and it began running balance of payments deficits – made worse by the costs of foreign aid, America's new welfare systems and maintaining a military presence in Europe and Asia. Gold began leaving the US. By 1965 reserves had fallen by 9,500 tonnes, down 40% from the 1949 peak.Successive US administrations tried to stop the outflow, without success. Dwight D. Eisenhower banned Americans from buying gold overseas, Kennedy imposed the “equalisation tax” on foreign investments, and Lyndon B. Johnson discouraged Americans from travelling altogether. “We may need to forgo the pleasures of Europe for a while,” he said.Fears that the dollar would devalue following the election (won by Kennedy) sent the gold price in London to $40/oz. The Bank of England, in collusion with the Federal Reserve, began increasing gold sales to keep the price down.Thus did the London gold pool begin, with the addition of six major European nations the following year (Belgium, France, the Netherlands, West Germany, Italy and Switzerland), which co-ordinated sales to suppress, or “stabilise”, to use their word, the gold price and defuse unwanted, upward market pressure.But the pool struggled against growing demand. In 1965, an ounce of gold was still $35, but the purchasing power of the dollar had decreased by 57% from 1945, while gold reserves had also fallen sharply. The culprit was the costs of the US government, in particular the Vietnam War and president Johnson's enormous welfare spending.If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Bretton Woods under pressureWith inflation rising at home and international confidence in the dollar waning, these programmes were not just costly – they undermined Bretton Woods. Non-American nations felt aggrieved that they had to produce $100 worth of goods and services to get a $100 bill, when the US could just print one. French finance minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing called it “America's exorbitant privilege”.President de Gaulle, meanwhile, had had enough. He ignored the pool to turn all French dollars and sterling balances into gold. The French even sent battleships to New York to collect their gold. De Gaulle became the target of several assassination attempts – coincidence, I'm sure. There were rather more US dollars in the world than there was gold to back them, he felt, and he was right.By 1967, US foreign liabilities were $36bn, but it only had $12bn in gold reserves – a third of what was needed to back the dollar. West Germany, Spain and Switzerland began demanding gold for their dollars. Even the British, with sterling going through one of its quadrennial collapses, asked the Americans to prepare $3bn worth of Fort Knox gold for withdrawal. Private gold demand was overwhelming.“The floor of the Bank of England's weighing room collapsed under the weight of all the bullion”In November 1967, the British government devalued the pound by 14%, from $2.80 to $2.40, in order to “achieve a substantial surplus on the balance of payments consistent with economic growth and full employment”.In that month, the London market saw greater bullion demand than it would typically see in nine: as much as 100 tonnes per day. To stem demand they banned forward buying, leverage and the purchase of gold with credit. The pool still lost 1,400 tonnes that year, more than a whole year's mined supply.Selling pressure on the US dollar only increased when the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese People's Army of Vietnam launched the first of a series of surprise attacks on US armed forces in South Vietnam in January 1968.Desperate to prop up the system, US military aircraft flew tonne after tonne of gold to RAF Lakenheath from where it was trucked in military convoys to the back entrance of the Bank of England: at one point the floor of the Bank of England's weighing room collapsed under the weight of all the gold.You really should subscribe to this amazing publication.Shoring up the systemIn the four days between 11 March and 14 March 1968, some 780 tonnes were sold to market. The effort to protect the price was deemed hopeless. On 15 March, UK chancellor Roy Jenkins declared a bank holiday, and the gold market was closed for a fortnight, “at the request of the United States”.Zurich also closed. Paris stayed open with gold trading at a 25% premium. All in all, the final 15 months saw over 3,000 tonnes sold to market to protect that $35 price. The pool had lost more than an eighth of its reserves.Two days later, in the rushed-through Washington Agreement, governors of the central banks in the gold pool declared there would be one fixed gold marketfor official government transactions at $35/oz and another, free-market, price for private transactions. Not for the last time, central bankers were living in a world of their own.Gold is one thing. Gold standards are another. They tend not to last, particularly bogus ones such as this one, under which citizens themselves did not handle gold. Keynes called them barbarous – ironic, perhaps, given that he was one of the architects of this one.In August 1971, president Nixon took the US off the gold standard, a “temporary” measure that remains more than 50 years later. For the first time in history, gold – Switzerland aside – played no part in the global monetary system.Of course it was the fault of the speculators. It always is. “I have directed the secretary of the Treasury to take the action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators,” Nixon said, deflecting responsibility, and “to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold”.High time for a US gold auditThe US keeps its gold in four places: at Fort Knox, Kentucky (roughly 56% of its 8,133 tonnes); at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (8%); and the remaining 36% at the mints in Denver and West Point. There has not been a proper public audit of this gold since 1953. There have been internal audits, especially between 1974 and 1986, but these were not transparent.There are many people, among them gold experts, who do not believe the gold is there. The US spent it trying to suppress the gold price in the 1960s, theysay. But in this new age of American transparency, both Trump and Musk have repeatedly pledged that this gold will be audited.There is talk of it being done on a livestream. Trump has even suggested the gold has been stolen. “We're actually going to Fort Knox to see if the gold is there,” he said, “because maybe somebody stole the gold. Tonnes of gold.”They've been making such light of it, one has to assume they know the gold is there. Musk was laughing about the conspiracies on podcasts, and he even posted a picture of a Fort Knox starter kit: a brick and some gold spray. I can't see how they would be joking if there were any serious doubts.Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, has said quite categorically that the gold is there. The last audit was in September 2024, he said in a recent Bloomberg interview, before looking down the camera and assuring the US people that “all the gold is present and accounted for”. But this would only have been an internal audit, and it would not have been a full audit.According to the US Mint, “the only gold removed has been very small quantities used to test the purity of gold during regularly scheduled audits”. No other gold has been transferred to or from the depository “for many years”. How long is many years, though? As far back as the 1960s?It's quite astonishing just how secretive the whole thing is. They opened the vaults for a congressional delegation and certain members of the press to view the gold in 1974. There were rumours swirling about then too. “We've never done this before and we'll probably never do it again,” said the then director of the US Mint Mary Brooks.“The gold commonly confiscated under Roosevelt contained some copper, and is not pure enough for sale”Then in 2017, during Trump's first administration, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell were invited to view the gold. “The gold was there,” Mnuchin said. He is “sure” nobody's moved it. There are “serious security protocols in place”. But there are more than 4,000 tonnes in Fort Knox. A tonne would be about the size of a medium to large suitcase. Did he see all 4,000 of them?The other big issue is the purity of the gold. What is there might not all be of good delivery quality, meaning it would not be readily accepted in international bullion markets. If much of the gold is the bullion Roosevelt confiscated in the 1930s, it will be in the form of “coinmelt”: melted down coins.The commonly confiscated coins, such as the $20 double eagle, were only 90% pure and mixed with copper to make them harder. When melted down, they were not always properly refined to modern standards, while the bars they were melted into weighed 320-330 ounces, not the 400 oz bars of good delivery standard today. In practice, this means Fort Knox gold would not be accepted without additional processing.But, until a proper audit takes place, this is all speculation, albeit reasoned speculation. We don't know the full facts. The reasons given for not conducting a full audit are flimsy: we don't need to, it would be too much of an undertaking. Please!If the US gold turns out not to be there, then the gold price goes up – potentially a lot. If it is there, it's business as usual.For now, I'd say the markets are behaving as though it is business as usual. They are climbing, and every dip is being bought, largely, it seems, by central banks (especially in Asia), who are diversifying their holdings and de-dollarising. But this audit cannot come quickly enough.Large volumes of physical gold - over 1,000 tonnes by some counts - have recently been transferred from London to New York. One theory is that was the gold was transferred in anticipation of tariffs. Another is that it was the US buying ahead of its audit. We will soon find out.Finally, I would just like to debunk one theory doing the rounds. US gold is currently marked to market at $42/oz. After the audit, those 8,133 tonnes – assuming they are there and of good delivery quality – could be marked to market at current prices, meaning a significant uplift in the value of holdings.The theory doing the rounds is that Treasury ecretary Bessent will use some of the upwards revaluation to monetise the balance sheet – not unlike how Roosevelt did in 1933 – to create funds for, among other things, the strategic bitcoin reserve. But Bessent has quite clearly stated that is not his intention.This article first appeared in Moneyweek Magazine. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
As novas políticas econômicas de Donald Trump são praticamente uma declaração de guerra à economia da China. Estamos presenciando o que pode ser um acordo histórico que mudará a economia mundial nos próximos anos, algo que não se via desde Bretton Woods. Entenda como o acordo monetário de Mar-a-Lago pode mudar o mundo.
What is a U.S. Dollar? According to the Congress of the United States a US Dollar is 371.35 grains of silver. Today, this definition is meaningless. The value is no longer tied to something "REAL". In fact, it's worse than that! Whatever value the US Dollar has, the government has decided to constantly steal that value from everyone that holds these dollars in "RESERVE".End of the Road - The Global Economy is a Pyramid Schemehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F7h1VJGp8wWhat Has Government Done to Out Money? by Murray N. Rothbardhttps://cdn.mises.org/files/2024-08/What%20Has%20Government%20Done%20to%20Our%20Money%202024.pdfOur Enemy The FED by Tom Woodshttps://www.ourenemythefed.com/
Tom welcomes back Jan Nieuwenhuijs to explore the dynamics of the global gold market and its implications for global monetary systems. Key topics include the movement of gold from London to Comex, driven by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical shifts. Jan explains that this flow reflects both physical arbitrage and strategic reshuffling of gold reserves, with banks moving gold into the U.S. for potential future use or resale in Asia. The discussion also delves into the lack of transparency around U.S. gold audits, particularly at Fort Knox. Jan highlights issues with the auditing process, noting that compartments have been reopened multiple times without proper justification, raising questions about the integrity of the audits. He argues for an independent audit to ensure accountability and reassurance regarding the nation's gold holdings. Another significant point is the valuation of U.S. gold reserves at $42 per ounce, a relic from the Bretton Woods era aimed at demonetizing gold. Jan suggests that revaluing gold could unlock substantial funds but warns this would be inflationary. He also touches on the role of gold in China's financial strategy, noting that while official reports understate their purchases, they are actively accumulating gold to diversify away from the dollar. The conversation concludes with Jan emphasizing the importance of tracking central bank gold buying and developments in alternative payment systems like the BRICS M-Bridge, which could challenge the dollar's dominance. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - Tariffs & LBMA Flows5:30 - Gold Demand & Lease Rates9:01 - Import Code Changes10:30 - U.S. Gold Reserve Audits20:14 - Time Req'd to Audit21:37 - Encumbrance Concerns24:35 - $42 U.S. Gold Valuation26:36 - U.S. Dollar Vs. Gold29:09 - Revaluing & Funding32:10 - Sovereign Wealth Fund?33:25 - Uncertainties & Credit37:50 - Deleveraging & Dollar41:00 - Eastern Perspective44:32 - China's Gold Holdings46:30 - Gold & Dollar Flight49:49 - Concluding Thoughts51:30 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/JanGold_Website: https://moneymetals.com Originally a sound engineer in the Dutch movie industry, Jan Nieuwenhuijs has devoted the last decade to in-depth gold market research. His commentary and analysis has earned him international recognition as a top expert on the Chinese gold market, the COMEX futures market, the London Bullion Market, and the Turkish gold market. At Money Metals, he writes about the international monetary system, central bank gold policies, the mechanics of the global gold market, the gold price, and economics in general.
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The Storm Skiing Journal and Podcast is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and to support independent ski journalism, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.WhoErik Mogensen, Director of Indy Pass, founder of Entabeni Systems, and temporary owner and General Manager of Black Mountain, New HampshireRecorded onFebruary 25, 2025About Entabeni SystemsEntabeni provides software and hardware engineering exclusively for independent ski areas. Per the company's one-page website:Entabeni: noun; meaning: zulu - "the mountain"We take pride in providing world class software and hardware engineering in true ski bum style.About Indy PassIndy Pass delivers two days each at 181 Alpine and 44 cross-country ski areas, plus discounts at eight Allied resorts and four Cat-skiing outfits for the 2024-25 ski season. Indy has announced several additional partners for the 2025-26 ski season. Here is the probable 2025-26 Alpine roster as of March 2, 2025 (click through for most up-to-date roster):Doug Fish, who has appeared on this podcast four times, founded Indy Pass in 2019. Mogensen, via Entabeni, purchased the pass in 2023.About Black Mountain, New HampshireClick here for a mountain stats overviewOwned by: Indy PassLocated in: Jackson, New HampshireYear founded: 1935Pass affiliations: Indy Pass and Indy+ Pass – 2 days, no blackoutsClosest neighboring ski areas: Attitash (:14), Wildcat (:19), Cranmore (:19), Bretton Woods (:40), King Pine (:43), Pleasant Mountain (:48), Sunday River (1:00), Cannon (1:02), Mt. Abram (1:03)Base elevation: 1,250 feetSummit elevation: 2,350 feetVertical drop: 1,100 feetSkiable acres: 140Average annual snowfall: 125 inchesTrail count: 45Lift count: 5 (1 triple, 1 double, 1 J-bar, 1 platter pull, 1 handletow – view Lift Blog's inventory of Black Mountain's lift fleet)Why I interviewed himI first spoke to Mogensen in the summer of 2020. He was somewhere out west, running something called Entabeni Systems, and he had insight into a story that I was working on. Indy Pass founder and owner-at-the-time Doug Fish had introduced us. The conversation was helpful. I wrote the story and moved on.Mogensen didn't. He kept calling. Kept emailing. There was something he wanted me to understand. Not about any particular story that I was writing, but about skiing as a whole. Specifically, about non-megapass skiing. It wasn't working, he insisted. It couldn't work without sweeping and fundamental changes. And he knew how to make those changes. He was already making them, via Entabeni, by delivering jetpack technology to caveman ski areas. They'd been fighting with sticks and rocks but now they had machine guns. But they needed more weapons, and faster.I still didn't get it. Not when Mogensen purchased Indy Pass in March 2023, and not when he joined the board at teetering-on-the-edge-of-existence Antelope Butte, Wyoming the following month. I may not have gotten it until Mogensen assembled, that October, a transcontinental coalition to reverse a New Hampshire mountain's decision to drop dead or contributed, several weeks later, vital funds to help re-open quirky and long-shuttered Hickory, New York.But in May of that year I had a late-night conversation with Doug Fish in a Savannah bar. He'd had no shortage of Indy Pass suitors, he told me. Fish had chosen Erik, he said, not because his longtime tech partner would respect Indy's brand integrity or would refuse to sell to Megaski Inc – though certainly both were true – but because in Mogensen, Fish saw a figure messianic in his conviction that family-owned, crockpots-on-tabletops, two-for-Tuesday skiing must not be in the midst of an extinction event.Mogensen, Fish said, had transformed his world into a laboratory for preventing such a catastrophe, rising before dawn and working all day without pause, focused always and only on skiing. More specifically, on positioning lunch-bucket skiing for a fair fight in the world of Octopus Lifts and $329 lift tickets and suspender-wearing Finance Bros who would swallow the mountains whole if they could poop gold coins out afterward. In service of this vision, Mogensen had created Entabeni from nothing. Indy Pass never would have worked without it, Fish said. “Elon Musk on skis,” Fish called* him. A visionary who would change this thing forever.Fish was, in a way, mediating. I'd written something - who knows what at this point – that Mogensen hadn't been thrilled with. Fish counseled us both against dismissiveness. I needed time to appreciate the full epic; Erik to understand the function of media. We still disagree often, but we understand and appreciate one another's roles. Mogensen is, increasingly, a main character in the story of modern skiing, and I – as a chronicler of such – owe my audience an explanation for why I think so.*This quote hit different two years ago, when Musk was still primarily known as the tireless disruptor who had mainstreamed electric cars. What we talked aboutWhy Indy Pass stepped up to save Black Mountain, New Hampshire; tripling Black's best revenue year ever in one season; how letting skiers brown bag helped increase revenue; how a beaten-up, dated ski area can compete directly with corporate-owned mountains dripping with high-speed lifts and riding cheap mass-market passes; “I firmly believe that skiing is in a bit of an identity crisis”; free cookies as emotional currency; Black's co-op quest; Black's essential elements; skiing's multi-tiered cost crisis; why the fanciest option is often the only option for lifts, snowcats, and snowguns; what ski areas are really competing against (it isn't other ski areas); bringing big tech to small skiing with Entabeni; what happened when teenage Mogensen's favorite ski area closed; “we need to spend 90 percent of our time understanding the problem we're trying to solve, and 10 percent of our time solving it”; why data matters; where small skiing is in the technology curve; “I think it's become very, very obvious that where you can level the playing field very quickly is with technology”; why Entabeni purchased Indy Pass; the percent of day-ticket sales that Indy accounts for at partner ski areas; limiting Indy Pass sales and keeping prices low; is Indy Pass a business?; and why Indy will never add a third day.Questions I wish I'd askedMogensen's tenure at Indy Pass has included some aggressive moves to fend off competition and hold market share. I wrote this series of stories on Indy's showdown with Ski Cooper over its cheap reciprocal pass two years ago:These are examples of headlines that Indy Pass HQ were not thrilled with, but I have a job to do. We could have spent an entire podcast re-hashing this, but the story has already been told, and I'd rather move forward than back.Also, I'd have liked to discuss Antelope Butte, Wyoming and Hickory, New York at length. We glancingly discuss Antelope Butte, and don't mention Hickory at all, but these are both important stories that I intend to explore more deeply in the future.Why now was a good time for this interviewHere's an interesting fact: since 2000, the Major League Baseball team with the highest payroll has won the World Series just three times (the 2018 Red Sox, and the 2000 and '09 Yankees), and made the series but lost it three additional times (the 2017 Dodgers and 2001 and '03 Yankees). Sure, the world champ rocks a top-five payroll about half the time, and the vast majority of series winners sit in the top half of the league payroll-wise, but recent MLB history suggests that the dudes with the most resources don't always win.Which isn't to say it's easy to fight against Epic and Ikon and ski areas with a thousand snowguns and chairlifts that cost more than a fighter jet. But a little creativity helps a lot. And Mogensen has assembled a creative toolkit that independent ski area operators can tap to help them spin-kick their way through the maelstrom:* When ski areas join Indy Pass, they join what amounts to a nationally marketed menu for hungry skiers anxious for variety and novelty. “Why yes, I'll have two servings of the Jay Peak and two Cannon Mountains, but I guess I'll try a side of this Black Mountain so long as I'm here.” Each resulting Indy Pass visit also delivers a paycheck, often from first-time visitors who say, “By gum let's do it again.”* Many ski areas, such as Nub's Nob and Jiminy Peak, build their own snowguns. Some, like Holiday Valley, install their own lifts. The manly man manning machines has been a ski industry trope since the days of Model T-powered ropetows and nine-foot-long skis. But ever so rare is the small ski area that can build, from scratch, a back-end technology system that actually works at scale. Entabeni says “yeah actually let me get this part, Bro.” Tech, as Mogensen says in our interview, is the fastest way for the little dude to catch up with the big dude.* Ski areas can be good businesses. But they often aren't. Costs are high, weather is unpredictable, and skiing is hard, cold, and, typically, far away from where the people live. To avoid the inconvenience of having to turn a profit, many ski areas – Bogus Basin, Mad River Glen, Bridger Bowl – have stabilized themselves under alternate business models, in which every dollar the ski area makes funnels directly back into improving the ski area. Black Mountain is attempting to do the same.I'm an optimist. Ask me about skiing's future, and I will not choose “death by climate change.” It is, instead, thriving through adaptation, to the environment, to technological shifts, to societal habits. Just watch if you don't believe me.Why you should ski Black MountainThere's no obvious answer to this question. Black is surrounded by bangers. Twin-peaked Attitash looms across the valley. Towering Wildcat faces Mt. Washington a dozen miles north. Bretton Woods and Sunday River, glimmering and modern, hoteled and mega-lifted and dripping with snowgun bling, rise to the west and to the east, throwing off the gravity and gravitas to haul marching armies of skiers into their kingdoms. Cranmore gives skiers a modern lift and a big new baselodge. Even formerly beat-up Pleasant Mountain now spins a high-speeder up its 1,200 vertical feet. And to even get to Black from points south, skiers have to pass Waterville, Loon, Cannon, Gunstock, and Ragged, all of which offer more terrain, more vert, faster lifts, bigger lodges, and an easier access road.That's a tough draw. And it didn't help that, until recently, Black was, well, a dump. Seasons were short, investment was limited. When things broke, they stayed broken – Mogensen tells me that Black hadn't made snow above the double chair midstation in 20 years before this winter. When I last showed up to ski at Black, two years ago, I found an empty parking lot and stilled lifts, in spite of assurances on social media and the ski area's website that this was a normal operating day.Mogensen fixed all that. The double now spins to the top every day the ski area is open. New snowguns line many trunk trails. A round of explosives tamed Upper Maple Slalom, transforming the run from what was essentially a cliff into an offramp-smooth drag-racer. The J-bar – America's oldest continuously operating overhead cable lift, in service since 1935 – spins regularly. A handle tow replaced the old rope below the triple. Black has transformed the crippled and sad little mid-mountain lodge into a boisterous party deck with music and champagne and firepits roaring right beneath the double chair. Walls and don't-do-this-or-that signs came down all over the lodge, which, while still crowded, is now stuffed with families and live music and beer glasses clinking in the dusk.And this is year one. Mogensen can't cross five feet of Black's campus without someone stopping him to ask if he's “the Indy Pass guy” and hoisting their phone for selfie-time. They all say some version of “thank you for what you're doing.” They all want in on the co-op. They all want to be part of whatever this crazy, quirky little hill is, which is the opposite of all the zinger lifts and Epkon overload that was supposed to kill off creaky little outfits like this one.Before I skied Black for three days over Presidents' weekend, I was skeptical that Mogensen could summon the interest to transform the mountain into a successful co-op. Did New England really have the appetite for another large throwback ski outfit on top of MRG and Smuggs and Magic? All my doubt evaporated as I watched Mogensen hand out free hot cookies like some orange-clad Santa Claus, as I tailed my 8-year-old son into the low-angle labyrinths of Sugar Glades and Rabbit Run, as I watched the busiest day in the mountain's recorded history fail to produce lift lines longer than three minutes, as Mt. Washington greeted me each time I slid off the Summit double.Black Mountain is a special place, and this is a singular time to go and be a part of it. So do that.Podcast NotesOn Black Mountain's comebackIn October 2023, Black Mountain's longtime owner, John Fichera, abruptly announced that the ski area would close, probably forever. An alarmed Mogensen rolled in with an offer to help: keep the ski area open, and Indy and Entabeni will help you find a buyer. Fichera agreed. I detailed the whole rapid-fire saga here:A year and dozens of perspective buyers later, Black remained future-less heading into the 2024-25 winter. So Mogensen shifted tactics, buying the mountain via Indy Pass and promising to transform the ski area into a co-op:On the Mad River Glen co-opAs of this writing, Mad River Glen, the feisty, single-chair-accessed 2,000-footer that abuts Alterra's Sugarbush, is America's only successful ski co-op. Here's how it started and how it works, per MRG's website:Mad River Glen began a new era in 1995 when its skiers came together to form the Mad River Glen Cooperative. The Cooperative works to fulfill a simple mission;“… to forever protect the classic Mad River Glen skiing experience by preserving low skier density, natural terrain and forests, varied trail character, and friendly community atmosphere for the benefit of shareholders, area personnel and patrons.” …A share in the Mad River Cooperative costs $2,000. Shares may be purchased through a single payment or in 40 monthly installments of $50 with a $150 down payment. The total cost for an installment plan is $2,150 (8.0% Annual Percentage Rate). The installment option enables anyone who loves and appreciates Mad River Glen to become an owner for as little as $50 per month. Either way, you start enjoying the benefits immediately! The only other cost is the annual Advance Purchase Requirement (APR) of $200. Since advance purchases can be applied to nearly every product and service on the mountain, including season passes, tickets, ski school and food, the advance purchase requirement does not represent an additional expense for most shareholders. In order to remain in good standing as a shareholder and receive benefits, your full APR payment must be met each year by September 30th.Black is still working out the details of its co-op. I can't share what I already know, other than to say that Black's organizational structure will be significantly different from MRG's.The Storm explores the world of lift-served skiing year-round. Join us. 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In this conversation, Trevor welcomes in Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson to delve into the complexities surrounding the Mar-A-Lago Accord, a conceptual restructuring of US debt and the implications of a new monetary system under the Trump administration. The idea is a theoretical, and as of yet unconfirmed, plan under consideration by the Trump administration. It aims to restructure global trade and financial systems, specifically addressing the U.S. national debt and trade imbalances. Key objectives include weakening the U.S. dollar, incentivizing domestic fixed-asset investment, and fundamentally altering the terms of international security arrangements. It draws comparisons to historical currency accords like Bretton Woods and the Plaza Accord, suggesting a potentially profound impact on the global economic order.Brent and Trevor discuss the potential revaluation of the US dollar, the challenges of de-dollarization, and the intertwining of economic and national security policies. The dialogue emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to address the urgent issues facing the US economy and the global financial system. In this conversation, Brent Johnson discusses the complexities of the U.S. economy, focusing on the monetization of the balance sheet, the implications of tariffs, and the evolving dynamics of global trade, particularly with China and Russia. He emphasizes the potential for a gold revaluation and its impact on financial markets, while also exploring investment strategies in uncertain times.This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by... Vizsla Silver is focused on becoming one of the world's largest single-asset silver producers through the exploration and development of the 100% owned Panuco-Copala silver-gold district in Sinaloa, Mexico. The company consolidated this historic district in 2019 and has now completed over 325,000 meters of drilling. The company has the world's largest, undeveloped high-grade silver resource. Learn more at https://vizslasilvercorp.com/Calibre Mining is a Canadian-listed, Americas focused, growing mid-tier gold producer with a strong pipeline of development and exploration opportunities across Newfoundland & Labrador in Canada, Nevada and Washington in the USA, and Nicaragua. With a strong balance sheet, a proven management team, strong operating cash flow, accretive development projects and district-scale exploration opportunities Calibre will unlock significant value.https://www.calibremining.com/Integra is a growing precious metals producer in the Great Basin of the Western United States. Integra is focused on demonstrating profitability and operational excellence at its principal operating asset, the Florida Canyon Mine, located in Nevada. In addition, Integra is committed to advancing its flagship development-stage heap leach projects: the past producing DeLamar Project located in southwestern Idaho, and the Nevada North Project located in western Nevada. Learn more about the business and their high industry standards over at integraresources.com
This week on Financial Revelations: The CCI and PPI came out this week and both are inflationary right now. Don't forget, the next 6 reports will still be tied to decisions made from the Biden Administration. President Trump has already made 80 presidential orders. Seem fast? Well, it's due to the fact that campaigning for midterm elections start in 16 months. If the President can show energy prices and interest rates going down, the 30 year mortgage at or below 5%, then he could pick up 50 seats in the House. David talks a little bit about the tariffs in the market and the Bretton Woods Agreement. As always you can listen to David on WCRF Cleveland 103.3 every Thursday from 8AM - 9AM or on the Moody Radio App. Email any financial questions to Kory@epsf.com Twitter(X) @skibucks1 For more information on the Amazon well drill, please visit: https://nativosusa.org https://www.gofundme.com Search: David Szafranski
This podcast hit paid subscribers' inboxes on Jan. 22. It dropped for free subscribers on Jan. 29. To receive future episodes as soon as they're live, and to support independent ski journalism, please consider an upgrade to a paid subscription. You can also subscribe to the free tier below:Who* Travis Kearney, General Manager* Aaron Damon, Assistant General Manager, Marketing Director* Mike Chasse, member of Bigrock Board of Directors* Conrad Brown, long-time ski patroller* Neal Grass, Maintenance ManagerRecorded onDecember 2, 2024About BigrockOwned by: A 501c(3) community nonprofit overseen by a local board of directorsLocated in: Mars Hill, MainePass affiliations: Indy Base Pass, Indy Plus Pass – 2 days, no blackoutsClosest neighboring ski areas: Quoggy Jo (:26), Lonesome Pine (1:08)Base elevation: 670 feetSummit elevation: 1,590 feetVertical drop: 920 feetSkiable acres: 90Average annual snowfall: 94 inchesTrail count: 29 (10% beginner, 66% intermediate, 24% advanced)Lift count: 4 (1 fixed-grip quad, 1 triple, 1 double, 1 surface lift – view Lift Blog's inventory of Bigrock's lift fleet)Why I interviewed themWelcome to the tip-top of America, where Saddleback is a ski area “down south” and $60 is considered an expensive lift ticket. Have you ever been to Sugarloaf, stationed four hours north of Boston at what feels like the planet's end? Bigrock is four hours past that, 26 miles north of the end of I-95, a surveyor's whim from Canadian citizenship. New England is small, but Maine is big, and Aroostook County is enormous, nearly the size of Vermont, larger than Connecticut, the second-largest county east of the Mississippi, 6,828 square miles of mostly rivers and trees and mountains and moose, but also 67,105 people, all of whom need something to do in the winter.That something is Bigrock. Ramble this far north and you probably expect ascent-by-donkey or centerpole double chairs powered by butter churns. But here we have a sparkling new Doppelmayr fixed quad summiting at a windfarm. Shimmering new snowguns hammering across the night. America's eastern-most ski area, facing west across the continent, a white-laced arena edging the endless wilderness.Bigrock is a fantastic thing, but also a curious one. Its origin story is a New England yarn that echoes all the rest – a guy named Wendell, shirtsleeves-in-the-summertime hustle and surface lifts, let's hope the snow comes, finally some snowguns and a chairlift just in time. But most such stories end with “and that's how it became a housing development.” Not this one. The residents of this state-sized county can ski Bigrock in 2025 because the folks in charge of the bump made a few crucial decisions at a few opportune times. In that way, the ski area is a case study not only of the improbable survivor, but a blueprint for how today's on-the-knife-edge independent bumps can keep spinning lifts in the uncertain decades to come.What we talked aboutHuge snowmaking upgrades; a new summit quad for the 2024-25 ski season; why the new lift follows a different line from the old summit double; why the Gemini summit double remains in place; how the new chair opens up the mountain's advanced terrain; why the lift is called “Sunrise”; a brief history of moving the Gemini double from Maine's now-defunct Evergreen ski area; the “backyard engineering degree”; how this small, remote ski area could afford a brand-new $4 million Doppelmayr quad; why Bigrock considered, but ultimately decided against, repurposing a used lift to replace Gemini; why the new lift is a fixed-grip, rather than a detachable, machine; the windfarm at Bigrock's summit; Bigrock in the 1960s; the Pierce family legacy; how Covid drove certain skiers to Bigrock while keeping other groups away; how and why Bigrock became a nonprofit; what nearly shuttered the ski area; “I think there was a period in the late ‘70s, early ‘80s where it became not profitable to own a ski area of this size”; why Bigrock's nonprofit board of directors works; the problem with volunteers; “every kid in town, if they wanted to ski, they were going to ski”; the decline of meatloaf culture; and where and when Bigrock could expand the trail footprint.Why now was a good time for this interviewIn our high-speed, jet-setting, megapass-driven, name-brand, social-media-fueled ski moment, it is fair to ask this question of any ski area that does not run multiple lifts equipped with tanning beds and bottle service: why do you still exist, and how?I often profile ski areas that have no business being in business in 2025: Plattekill, Magic Mountain, Holiday Mountain, Norway Mountain, Bluewood, Teton Pass, Great Bear, Timberline, Mt. Baldy, Whitecap, Black Mountain of Maine. They are, in most cases, surrounded both by far more modernized facilities and numerous failed peers. Some of them died and punched their way out of the grave. How? Why are these hills the ones who made it?I keep telling these stories because each is distinct, though common elements persist: great natural ski terrain, stubborn owners, available local skiers, and persistent story-building that welds a skier's self-image to the tale of mountain-as-noble-kingdom. But those elements alone are not enough. Every improbably successful ski area has a secret weapon. Black Mountain of Maine has the Angry Beavers, a group of chainsaw-wielding volunteers who have quietly orchestrated one of New England's largest ski area expansions over the past decade, making it an attractive busy-day alternative to nearby Sunday River. Great Bear, South Dakota is a Sioux Falls city park, insulating the business from macro-economic pressures and enabling it to buy things like new quad chairlifts. Magic, surrounded by Epkon megaships, is the benefactor of marketing and social-media mastermind Geoff Hatheway, who has crafted a rowdy downhome story that people want to be a part of.And Bigrock? Well, that's what we're here for. How on earth did this little ski area teetering on the edge of the continental U.S. afford a brand-new $4 million chairlift? And a bunch of new snowmaking? And how did it not just go splat-I'm-dead years ago as destination ski areas to the north and south added spiderwebs of fast lifts and joined national mass-market passes? And how is it weathering the increasing costs of labor, utilities, infrastructure, and everything else?The answer lies, in part, in Bigrock's shift, 25 years or so ago, to a nonprofit model, which I believe many more community ski areas will have to adopt to survive this century. But that is just the foundation. What the people running the bump do with it matters. And the folks running Bigrock have found a way to make a modern ski area far from the places where you'd expect to find one.What I got wrongI said that “hundreds of lifts” had “come out in America over the past couple of years.” That's certainly an overcount. But I really had in mind the post-Covid period that began in 2021, so the past three to four years, which has seen a significant number of lift replacements. The best place to track these is Lift Blog's year-by-year new lifts databases: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 (anticipated).I noted that there were two “nearby” ski areas in New Brunswick, the Canadian province bordering Maine. I was referring to 800-vertical-foot Crabbe Mountain, an hour and 20 minutes southeast of Bigrock, and Mont Farlagne, a 600-ish-footer an hour and a half north (neither travel time considers border-crossing delays). Whether these are “near” Bigrock is subjective, I suppose. Here are their trailmaps:Why you should ski BigrockFirst, ski Maine. Because it's gorgeous and remote and, because it takes work to get there, relatively uncrowded on the runs (Sunday River and Pleasant Mountain peak days excepted). Because the people are largely good and wholesome and kind. And because it's winter the way we all think winter should be, violently and unapologetically cold, bitter and endless, overcast and ornery, fierce in that way that invigorates and tortures the soul.“OK,” you say. “Saddleback and Sugarloaf look great.” And they are. But to drive four hours past them for something smaller? Unlikely. I'm a certain kind of skier that I know most others are not. I like to ramble and always have. I relish, rather than endure, long drives. Particularly in unknown and distant parts. I thrive on newness and novelty. Bigrock, nearly a thousand feet of vert nine hours north of my apartment by car, presents to me a chance for no liftlines and long, empty runs; uncrowded highways for the last half of the drive; probably heaping diner plates on the way out of town. My mission is to hit every lift-served ski area in America and this is one of them, so it will happen at some point.But what of you, Otherskier? Yes, an NYC-based skier can drive 30 to 45 minutes past Hunter and Belleayre and Windham to try Plattekill for a change-up, but that equation fails for remote Bigrock. Like Pluto, it orbits too far from the sun of New England's cities to merit inclusion among the roster of viable planets. So this appeal, I suppose, ought to be directed at those skiers who live in Presque Isle (population 8,797), Caribou (7,396), and Houlton (6,055). Maybe you live there but don't ski Bigrock, shuttling on weekends to the cabin near Sugarloaf or taking a week each year to the Wasatch. But I'm a big proponent of the local, of five runs after work on a Thursday, of an early-morning Sunday banger to wake up on the weekend. To have such a place in your backyard – even if it isn't Alta-Snowbird (because nothing is) or Stowe or Killington – is a hell of an asset.But even that is likely a small group of people. What Bigrock is for – or should be for – is every kid growing up along US 1 north of I-95. Every single school district along this thoroughfare ought to be running weekly buses to the base of the lifts from December through March, for beginner lessons, for race programs, for freeride teams. There are trad-offs to remoteness, to growing up far from things. Yes, the kids are six or seven hours away from a Patriots game or Fenway. But they have big skiing, good skiing, modern skiing, reliable skiing, right freaking there, and they should all be able to check it out.Podcast notesOn Evergreen Valley ski areaBigrock's longtime, still-standing-but-now-mothballed Mueller summit double lift came from the short-lived Evergreen Valley, which operated from around 1972 to 1982.The mountain stood in the ski-dense Conway region along the Maine-New Hampshire border, encircled by present-day Mt. Abram, Sunday River, Wildcat, Black Mountain NH, Bretton Woods, Cranmore, and Pleasant Mountain. Given that competition, it may seem logical that Evergreen failed, but Sunday River wasn't much larger than this in 1982.On Saddleback's Rangeley doubleSaddleback's 2020 renaissance relied in large part on the installation of a new high-speed quad to replace the ancient Rangeley Mueller double. Here's an awesome video of a snowcat tugging the entire lift down in one movement.On Libra Foundation and Maine Winter SportsBacked with Libra Foundation grants, the Maine Winter Sports Center briefly played an important role in keeping Bigrock, Quoggy Jo, and Black Mountain of Maine ski areas operational. All three managed to survive the organization's abrupt exit from the Alpine ski business in 2013, a story that I covered in previous podcasts with Saddleback executive and onetime Maine Winter Sports head Andy Shepard, and with the leadership of Black Mountain of Maine.On Bigrock's masterplanWe discuss a potential future expansion that would substantially build out Bigrock's beginner terrain. Here's where that new terrain - and an additional lift - could sit in relation to the existing trails (labeled “A01” and A03”):On Maine ski areas on IndyIndy has built a stellar Indy Pass roster, which includes every thousand-ish-footer in the state that's not owned by Boyne: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.stormskiing.com/subscribe
EP. #1151 Global Currency Coup: The Hidden Agenda to Rewrite the Financial Rules Is the U.S. laying the groundwork for a seismic shift in the global financial order? On this episode, we uncover the hidden agenda behind America's moves with stablecoins and Bitcoin—a strategy that could lead to a stealthy rollout of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). But that's just the tip of the iceberg. Former Trump Treasury pick Scott Bessent recently hinted at a “grand, global economic reordering”—a new Bretton Woods moment—in a speech at the Manhattan Institute. What does this mean for your money, your freedom, and the future of financial sovereignty? GUEST: Mel Mattison is a writer and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years of experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Having served as the CEO of three separate FINRA and SEC-regulated broker-dealers, Mel combines insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, Mel sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. He holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. WEBSITE: https://www.melmattison.com BOOK: Quoz: A Financial Thriller SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS!!! HIMS - Making Healthy and Happy Easy to Achieve Sexual Health, Hair Loss, Mental Health, Weight Management START YOUR FREE ONLINE VISIT TODAY - HIMS dot com slash STRANGE https://www.HIMS.com/strange BECOME A PREMIUM SUBSCRIBER!!! https://strangeplanet.supportingcast.fm Three monthly subscriptions to choose from. Commercial Free Listening, Bonus Episodes and a Subscription to my monthly newsletter, InnerSanctum. We and our partners use cookies to personalize your experience, to show you ads based on your interests, and for measurement and analytics purposes. By using our website and services, you agree to our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://strangeplanet.supportingcast.fm/