Podcasts about indian pm

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Best podcasts about indian pm

Latest podcast episodes about indian pm

HT Daily News Wrap
PM Modi set for first Namibia visit by Indian PM in nearly three decades

HT Daily News Wrap

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2025 3:08


 Nationwide strike likely to hit bank, transport services; 25 crore workers to take part PM Modi set for first Namibia visit by Indian PM in nearly three decades Trump threatens extra 10% tariff on nations siding with Brics Bigg Boss 19 tentative contestants list: Ram Kapoor, Munmun Dutta, Mr Faisu, Kanika Mann approached for Salman Khan-hosted show Sourav Ganguly warns Shubman Gill his 'honeymoon period' as captain won't last: 'Pressure will build in next 3 Tests'

Words of Wisdom - Dr Subramanian Swamy
MODI MUST CHOOSE :TO BE PRIME MINISTER OR FOREIGN MINISTER

Words of Wisdom - Dr Subramanian Swamy

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2025 57:47


Join VHSindia for enlightening conversation to hear about foreign trips of current Indian PM - narendra modi whose foreign trips is now high ranked/ averaged amongst all indian PM. Avg 19 per year . what did he achieve? is it beneficial for India ? whom he is competing with ?

The Cārvāka Podcast
Canadian Expectations From The G7 Summit

The Cārvāka Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2025 67:52


In this podcast, Kushal and Daniel discuss the possible results Canada can extract from the upcoming G7 summit and the media barrage by the Khalistanis on the Indian PM's invitation to the summit. Registration link for United Against Extremism (UAE) Conference: https://tafsik.com/event/conference/ Sunday // June 29th // 2025 10:00am-5:00pm PARAMOUNT EVENT SPACE 222 Rowntree Dairy Rd. Woodbridge, Ontario, L4L 9T2 Follow them: Twitter: @DanielBordmanOG Support Daniel: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DanielBordman #g7summit #pmmodi #canada #markcarney #narendramodi #khalistan #nijjar ------------------------------------------------------------ Listen to the podcasts on: SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/kushal-mehra-99891819 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1rVcDV3upgVurMVW1wwoBp Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-c%C4%81rv%C4%81ka-podcast/id1445348369 Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/show/the-carvaka-podcast ------------------------------------------------------------ Support The Cārvāka Podcast: Buy Kushal's Book: https://amzn.in/d/58cY4dU Become a Member on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKPx... Become a Member on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/carvaka UPI: kushalmehra@icici Interac Canada: kushalmehra81@gmail.com To buy The Carvaka Podcast Exclusive Merch please visit: http://kushalmehra.com/shop ------------------------------------------------------------ Follow Kushal: Twitter: https://twitter.com/kushal_mehra?ref_... Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KushalMehraO... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thecarvakap... Koo: https://www.kooapp.com/profile/kushal... Inquiries: https://kushalmehra.com/ Feedback: kushalmehra81@gmail.com

Bharatiya Junta Podcast
BJPod Thoughton Ki Baraat- Tryst with Destiny to Puncture wala, global representation of India in films and yes, KASHMIR

Bharatiya Junta Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2025 75:55


Gang gets to talk about a movie called G20 where there is a role played by a fictional Indian PM and expands that to India's image in the world. Then they talk about how the PM spoke about the Muslim Youth by calling them Puncture Wala and then there is a bit on what happened in Pahalgam.Episode Art thanks to NeilteeTune In !

RNZ: Morning Report
Indian PM Modi alleges 'anti-India activity' in NZ

RNZ: Morning Report

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2025 3:32


Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has won significant facetime with global heavyweight Narendra Modi on a frenetic full day in India. Craig McCulloch reports.

RNZ: Morning Report
PM Luxon on meeting with Indian PM Modi

RNZ: Morning Report

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2025 7:44


Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has won facetime and favour with global heavyweight Narendra Modi on a frenetic full day in India, where both pledged greater military cooperation. Luxon spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.

Words of Wisdom - Dr Subramanian Swamy
On Outcome of Modi's US Visit - Dr Subramanian Swamy

Words of Wisdom - Dr Subramanian Swamy

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2025 72:16


Dr Swamy and his team analyse the recent visit by Indian PM and its effect on Indian economy.

PBS NewsHour - Segments
News Wrap: Indian PM Modi visits White House

PBS NewsHour - Segments

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2025 7:19


In our news wrap Thursday, Indian Prime Minister Modi visited the White House hours after President Trump signed a plan to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on many of America's trading partners, a federal judge paused Trump's executive order restricting gender-affirming care for trans youth and Hamas said it will release three Israeli hostages on Saturday allowing the ceasefire with Israel to hold. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

PBS NewsHour - World
News Wrap: Indian PM Modi visits White House

PBS NewsHour - World

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2025 7:19


In our news wrap Thursday, Indian Prime Minister Modi visited the White House hours after President Trump signed a plan to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on many of America's trading partners, a federal judge paused Trump's executive order restricting gender-affirming care for trans youth and Hamas said it will release three Israeli hostages on Saturday allowing the ceasefire with Israel to hold. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

In the press
'Welcome to Marseille': Indian PM Modi pays visit to France's second city

In the press

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 12, 2025 6:42


PRESS REVIEW – Wednesday, February 12: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Marseille in order to inaugurate his country's second consulate in France. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky gives an exclusive interview to The Guardian. Also, a petition urging Denmark to buy California goes viral. Finally, Jude Bellingham makes the back pages as his goal seals a dramatic Real Madrid victory over Manchester City.

A Little More Conversation with Ben O’Hara-Byrne
Member of Indian PM Modi's inner circle behind Canadian criminal plot

A Little More Conversation with Ben O’Hara-Byrne

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2024 20:27


Guest: Dan Stanton, Director of National Security, Professional Development Institute, University of Ottawa and former CSIS officer

RNZ: Morning Report
PM Luxon pursues freetrade deal in meeting with Indian PM Modi

RNZ: Morning Report

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2024 5:23


The prime ministers of India and New Zealand held a one-on-one bi-lateral meeting at the East Asia Summit, as New Zealand is pursuing a trade agreement with India, which has the fastest growing and fifth largest economy in the world. Economist focused on trade policy at AUT Dr Rahul Sen spoke to Guyon Espiner.

RNZ: Morning Report
PM Luxon meets with Indian PM Modi

RNZ: Morning Report

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2024 3:01


Christopher Luxon has emerged from a meeting with his Indian counterpart Narenda Modi - wielding a formal invitation to visit - but little sign of tangible progress towards a promised free trade deal. Deputy political editor Craig McCulloch reports.

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी
India report: Indian PM speaks to Russian President Putin, discusses Russia-Ukraine conflict

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2024 7:35


Listen to the latest SBS Hindi news from India. 28/08/2024

I - On Defense Podcast
325: Israel & Hamas Negotiations Continue - No Deal Yet + Indian PM Visits Kiev - Encourages Dialogue + Germany to Station Combat Brigade in Lithuania by End of Decade + More

I - On Defense Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2024 22:28


For review:1.  Israel & Hamas Negotiations Continue - No Deal Yet. Philadelphi Corridor still a sticking point. Egypt-based Alghad TV reported Saturday, citing citing an unnamed informed source, that Israel had notified Cairo it was prepared to withdraw under a deal from five security points out of eight discussed along the Philadelphi Corridor. There was no other confirmation of the report.2. Latest US Assistance Package to Ukraine is worth $125 million.Included in this package are air defense capabilities; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; and anti-tank weapons.3. Indian PM Visits Kiev - Encourages Dialogue.India's Narendra Modi urged President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday to sit down for talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine and offered to help bring peace as the two leaders met in wartime Kyiv.4. The Croatian Ministry of Defense has announced plans to acquire High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, for the country's armed forces.5. Germany to Station Combat Brigade in Lithuania by End of Decade.Lithuania and Germany agreed in December 2023- to station 4,800 military and 200 civilian German personnel at the Rūdninkai Training Area in the country's southeast.6. Taiwan increase annual defense spending to 2.45% GDP.  Objective is to attain 3% GDP in the future.7. US Army awards Fixed-Wing ISR contract to Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC).Under the High Accuracy Detection and Exploitation System (HADES) program, SNC will now be charged with integrating sensing technologies aboard the Bombardier Global 6500 business jet for airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. SNC will largely carry out HADES work at the company's facilities in Hagerstown, Md. 

AP Audio Stories
The latest international headlines

AP Audio Stories

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2024 0:59


AP correspondent Charles de Ledesma reports on the scale of Israel's Gaza evacuations; the Indian PM's arrival to Ukraine; a high death toll in Pakistan violence; floods in Bangladesh; and the birth of giant panda twins in Germany.

3 Things
The Catch Up: 21 August

3 Things

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2024 3:41


This is the Catch Up on 3 Things by The Indian Express and I'm Flora Swain.Today is the 21st of August and here are the headlines.CBI officers continued to question of R G Kar Medical College and Hospital former principal Dr Sandip Ghosh regarding the rape and murder of a young doctor on night shift on hospital premises for the sixth consecutive day today. As per the news agency PTI, Ghosh may also be subjected to a polygraph test. An official said that they want to further verify Ghosh's answers, as there have been discrepancies in some of the replies. Meanwhile, healthcare services remain affected at state-run hospitals in West Bengal, as junior doctors continued their strike for the 13th consecutive day. Senior doctors were asked to report to duty in place of junior medics at several hospitals.The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) called for a “Maharashtra bandh” on August 24 to protest against the alleged sexual assault on two young girls at a school in Badlapur. Vijay Wadettiwar, leader of opposition in the state assembly said that MVA allies – Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) headed by Sharad Pawar – took the decision after a meeting in Mumbai. Meanwhile, a local court extended till August 26 the police custody of the man arrested for allegedly sexually abusing two girls at a school in Badlapur.Amid a nationwide strike called by Dalit and Adivasi groups against the Supreme Court's decision to permit the sub-classification of Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), police lathicharged protesters in Bihar's Patna, news agency ANI. As many as twenty one organisations have called for Bharat Bandh against the SC order. Left parties, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Bahujan Samajwadi Party have extended support to the nationwide bandh. While protests were seen across cities in Bihar, the Bandh saw mixed responses in Rajasthan and Jharkhand. In Odisha, road and rail services were partially affected due to the protests, news agency PTI reported.Ahead of the first-ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the Ukraine, Narendra Modi today said that India hoped for an early return of peace and stability in the region as a “friend and partner”. Modi is headed to Poland today, and then to Ukraine on August 23. This also marks the first-ever visit by an Indian PM to Poland in 45 years. In his departure statment, Modi expressed confidence that “the visit will serve as a natural continuation of extensive contacts with the two countries and help create the foundation for stronger and more vibrant relations in the years ahead”.A bus carrying Pakistani pilgrims overturned in central Iran, killing 28 passengers and injuring another 23 people, state media reported today.The accident took place late on Tuesday in the central Iranian province of Yazd and was caused by a technical defect in the bus braking system, according to preliminary investigations made by the Iranian traffic police. Pakistan's consular services in Iran have been invited to Yazd province to follow up on the accident, the official added.This was the Catch Up on 3 Things by The Indian Express.

Highlights from Ukraine
19 Aug: Ukraine didn't warn West about Kursk operation to avoid leaks to Russia, Indian PM to pay Ukraine first visit ever

Highlights from Ukraine

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2024 6:09


Latest news from 19 August 2024, as reported in the Ukrainian media. Easy ways to support us: Subscribe to our Patreon to give monthly support https://www.patreon.com/highlightsfromukraine Send us a one-time 'thank you' tip via PayPal at: highlightsfromukraine@gmail.com Out YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/3oH111z Special thanks to our top Patreon supporters - Helena Pszczolko O'Callaghan, mattg629, krissi, Jared and Dick Warner!

Geeta's World
After Moscow, will Modi visit Kyiv? What are India's deliverables as peacemaker? | Geeta's World, Ep 98

Geeta's World

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2024 39:05


Days after visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, PM Modi is expected to visit Kyiv around Ukrainian National Day on August 24. This would be his first visit to Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022 and the first-ever by an Indian PM since Ukraine's independence following the breakup of the Soviet Union.Considering Modi's Russia visit irked Ukraine and the West, is this visit just to placate the West and strike an equilibrium?Observers say finding a middle ground could serve the global good, but what more can India offer now, two years into the war, after failed peace attempts?In this episode of Geeta's World, our host, Anna Priyadarshini, and the foreign affairs editor at India Today, TV Today Network, Geeta Mohan, discuss!Listen in!Produced by Anna PriyadarshiniSound Mix by Sachin Dwivedi

Words of Wisdom - Dr Subramanian Swamy
Modi's Visit to Russia & It's Consequences for Indo-US Relations - Dr Swamy

Words of Wisdom - Dr Subramanian Swamy

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2024 57:26


St. Petersburg to Vladmir via Gujarat - Listen to this episode to know the current happenings around India - Russia - US triangle and how it may play out. Dr Subramanian Swamy along with VHS team walks us through the cities of Russia showing in rear view bygone USSR era and shows the future of things with china in between. Recent visit by current Indian PM invited many reactions and this talk show offers best of perspectives. Happy Listening

ThePrint
ThePrintPod: Austrian chancellor recalls Nehru's legacy. How Indian PM helped Vienna regain sovereignty after WW2

ThePrint

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 11, 2024 7:40


Austria, which had been annexed by Nazi Germany, was occupied by Allied Powers after WW2. Austrian foreign minister Karl Gruber appealed to Nehru to mediate in negotiations with USSR.  

SBS Nepali - एसबीएस नेपाली पोडकाष्ट
Narendra Modi returned as Indian PM, but with a reduced majority - लगातार तेस्रो पटक भारतका प्रधानमन्त्री बने नरेन्द्र मोदी, बहुमत गुमाउ

SBS Nepali - एसबीएस नेपाली पोडकाष्ट

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2024 6:58


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been re-elected for a historic third term in office. But surprise results in this election means his party has lost its majority in parliament for the first time in a decade. - नरेन्द्र मोदी लगातार तेस्रो पटक भारतका प्रधानमन्त्री निर्वाचित भएका छन्। तर यस ऐतिहासिक जीतका साथ साथै, उनको दलले एक दशकमा पहिलो पटक संसदमा बहुमत गुमाएको छ।

SBS World News Radio
Narendra Modi returned as Indian PM, but with a reduced majority

SBS World News Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2024 4:42


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been re-elected for a historic third term in office. But surprise results in this election means his party has lost its majority in parliament for the first time in a decade.

Squawk Box Europe Express
Indian PM Modi projected to win third term in office

Squawk Box Europe Express

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2024 26:01


Indian prime minister Narendra Modi looks set to secure a third term in office with a narrower-than-expected parliamentary majority. We are live in New Delhi as the vote count continues. On Wall Street the Dow falls 100 points on the first trading day of June as U.S. manufacturing numbers indicate the economy is contracting. Gamestop shares rally following renewed social media activity by the investor known as Roaring Kitty. CNBC learns that Paramount and Skydance agree to merger terms after months of negotiations. Shipping giant Maersk hikes its guidance for the second time in just over a month as Red Sea tensions and soaring demand push freight rates higher. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Jaipur Dialogues
Was Subhash Chandra Bose 1st Indian PM_ _ Kangana के बयान से कांग्रेस बौखलाई | Anuj Dhar

The Jaipur Dialogues

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2024 52:01


Was Subhash Chandra Bose 1st Indian PM_ _ Kangana के बयान से कांग्रेस बौखलाई | Anuj Dhar

anuj dhar indian pm kangana subhash chandra bose
The Lovin Daily
Lovin Dubai Show: Indian PM Modi Inaugurated A Remarkable Hindu Temple In Abu Dhabi

The Lovin Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 15, 2024 52:09


-Indian PM Modi Inaugurated A Remarkable Hindu Temple In Abu Dhabi -RTA and Etihad Rail Partnership As You Can Use Your Nol Card! -A Large Amount Of Meth And Hashish Was ound Hidden In Someone's Boot -The First Ever Proposal On DXB Airport Rooftop!! -Blu Fiefe Shares How She Found Her Unique Sound In Lebanon -Live With Top Emirati Film Director Nayla Al Khaja

C-SPAN Radio - Washington Today
No press cameras in President Biden's meeting with Indian PM ahead of G20

C-SPAN Radio - Washington Today

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2023 44:16


President Biden meets Indian Prime Minister Modi ahead of G20 summit, but reporters question why they were not allowed to see it, Senate Republicans fail to pass bill to ban federal mask mandates, some headline moments this week from GOP presidential campaigns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Books and Authors
Shaping India's Leadership

Books and Authors

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2023 52:48


"Prime ministership is a continuum. If VP Singh had not done Mandal to empower the OBCs, the story for Mr Modi might have been very different. He is today an OBC PM and he's talking about taking power to the most backward, the Mahadalits, the Pasmanda Muslims; those who have been on the peripheries of power are to be given a stake. If VP Singh hadn't done as he did, maybe the BJP would have continued as a Brahmin-Bania party, which it used to be known as" - Neerja Chowdhury, author, 'How Prime Ministers Decide', talks to Manjula Narayan about Indira Gandhi's religiosity, the central issues that each Indian PM has grappled with, Manmohan Singh and the Indo-US Nuclear deal, the friendship between Vajpayee and PV Narasimha Rao, Sonia Gandhi asking VP Singh and Vajpayee for advice and much more.

The Bryan Suits Show
Hour 1: Trump tape

The Bryan Suits Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2023 43:26


Desantis calls for 'deadly force' against suspected drug traffickers. Co-chair removed from King County homelessness board after outburst last month. Actor says he was politely escorted out of a Mcmenamins location in Tacoma. // Clips surfaces of Biden joking about state secrets while meeting with the Indian PM. Tape released of Trump talking about classified documents. Post-pandemic test scores show schools struggling to catch up. // Human remains found where actor Julian Sands went missing. Everyone in South Korea is about to get one or two years younger. Tech booms tend to attract grifters. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

PRI's The World
Indian PM Modi secures Predator drones during state visit to US

PRI's The World

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2023 47:35


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's state visit to the US has secured his country 31 Predator drones worth $3 billion. The purchase could mark a shift global dynamics — historically, India has turned to Russia for its military hardware. Also, an investigation has found that criminal gangs are using sham bank accounts and secret online marketplaces to steal from almost anyone — individuals, churches, corporations — and are routing the money overseas. And, the nonprofit Haitian Education and Leadership Program is assisting people who are unable to pay their tuition bills. Plus, in the latest installment of The World's "Planet Hip Hop" series, we take a look at Argentina's trap music scene.

C-SPAN Radio - Washington Today
Indian PM Modi meets POTUS in state visit to U.S., talking trade & China

C-SPAN Radio - Washington Today

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2023 49:59


Indian Prime Minister Modi asked about human rights during state visit to the U.S., House committee releasing IRS whistleblower testimony claiming Biden Administration interference in Hunter Biden tax evasion case, Republican Will Hurd announces run for president, Senate defeats bill to overturn ATF pistol brace rule. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ThePrint
US is rolling out the red carpet for Modi. But White House knows Indian PM is his own man

ThePrint

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2023 5:22


India wants the American giants' investments and technologies, but Modi's visit won't be the 'turning point' of the sort that the Nixon-Kissinger duo envisaged in the 1970s for China.

Don’t Call Me Resilient
Indian PM Modi is expected to get a rockstar welcome in the U.S. How much is the diaspora fuelling him?

Don’t Call Me Resilient

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2023 34:24


On June 22, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will make his first official state visit to the United States. And if his visits to Australia last month, to Canada in 2015 and to Texas in 2019 are any indication, he'll be given a rockstar welcome.U.S. President Joe Biden has already joked that he wants Modi's autograph because so many people want to see the Indian PM while he's in the United States.Of course, Modi has his critics too, who point to the populist leader's far-right policies and human rights abuses.Yet, as the prime minister of the world's largest democracy, Modi remains one of the world's most popular leaders - not just at home, but among the tens of millions who make up the global South Asian diaspora.Last week, perhaps in an acknowledgement of the power of the South Asian diaspora on Indian elections, the former leader of the opposition, Rahul Gandhi, also visited the United States.In the latest episode of Don't Call Me Resilient, we are asking how important is that diaspora? With India having one of the highest remittance rates in the world, how much does overseas support contribute to Modi's popularity and success? And what kind of an impact could a progressive element of that diaspora have on Indian politics?Anjali Arondekar joins the podcast to sift through all this. She is a professor of feminist studies at the University of California, Santa Cruz. She is also the founding co-director of the university's Center for South Asian Studies which hosted a discussion last week with Rajiv Gandhi.ResourcesNarendra Modi's First State Visit to the US Has Both National and Global Implications (The Wire)The Modi Question (BBC) A Defeat for Modi's Party in South India Heartens His RivalsIndian politician boasts about getting Muslims killed – on camera (Al Jazeera)The Network of Hindu Nationalists Behind Modi's Diaspora Diplomacy in the U.S. (The Intercept)From the archives - in The ConversationRead more: India's new citizenship act legalizes a Hindu nationRead more: Trump and Modi: birds of the same feather, but with different world viewsRead more: Just who is Narendra Modi, India's man of the moment?Read more: How the conservative right hijacks religionRead more: Narendra Modi has won the largest election in the world. What will this mean for India?Listen and FollowYou can listen to or follow Don't Call Me Resilient on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.We'd love to hear from you, including any ideas for future episodes. Join The Conversation on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok and use #DontCallMeResilient.Thank you to Sanjay Ruparelia, Jarislowsky Democracy Chair at TMU and Kalpana Jain, Senior Religion Editor at TCUS who contributed to this episode.

Anticipating The Unintended
#211 Of Motives and Presumptions

Anticipating The Unintended

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2023 23:50


India Policy Watch #1: Silly Season Is Upon UsInsights on issues relevant to India— RSJLate on Friday this week, the RBI issued a circular withdrawing the circulation of ₹2000 denomination banknotes. The RBI clarified that these notes would continue to serve as legal tender, so this isn't another demonetisation. Here's the Indian Express reporting:THE RESERVE Bank of India (RBI) Friday announced the withdrawal of its highest value currency note, Rs 2,000, from circulation, adding that the notes will continue to be legal tender. It said the existing Rs 2,000 notes can be deposited or exchanged in banks until September 30, but set a limit of “Rs 20,000 at a time”.“In order to ensure operational convenience and to avoid disruption of regular activities of bank branches, exchange of Rs 2,000 banknotes can be made up to a limit of Rs 20,000 at a time, at any bank starting from May 23,” it said.“To complete the exercise in a time-bound manner and to provide adequate time to the members of the public, all banks shall provide deposit and/ or exchange facility for Rs 2,000 banknotes until September 30, 2023,” the RBI said.The RBI circular and the press note also attempt to make a convincing, logical case for this decision. There appear to be three reasons for doing this.Thanks for reading Anticipating the Unintended! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.One, the ₹2000 denomination notes seem to have served their useful purpose. They were introduced in November 2016 when the legal tender status of existing ₹500 and ₹1000 banknotes in circulation were withdrawn. Looking back, it appears these were introduced to help re-monetise the economy really quickly, which was under the stress of not having adequate new legal tender banknotes. According to the RBI, after this task of re-monetising was completed, the printing of new ₹2000 banknotes was stopped in 2018-19. Therefore, after 5 years of not printing any new notes, this looks like the right time to take them out of circulation completely.Two, since most of the ₹2000 denomination notes were issued prior to 2017, they have apparently completed the typical lifespan of a banknote which is between 4-5 years. In an ideal system, most of these old notes should have come back to the RBI by now. Further, these notes are not seen to be used for transactions anymore. They seem to be just sitting somewhere out there. So, in pursuance of the ‘clean note policy', the best course of action is to withdraw them from circulation. Lastly, there was also an allusion to the ₹2000 notes being often found by various investigative agencies in their haul of black money or frauds. So, somewhere there is a view that withdrawing these notes would smoke these fraudsters out, who are sitting on piles of this unaccounted-for cash.Now, as students of public policy, we must assess this measure based on its intended objectives, the likely costs of doing it and the unintended consequences that are likely to arise. The first reason—that the ₹2000 banknotes have served their purpose, so it is time we take them out—can be scrutinised further. I don't think it was made clear when they were introduced back in November 2016 that the only reason for doing it was to re-monetise the economy quickly. There's a bit of retrofitting of logic here. Also, the decision to stop printing new ₹2000 notes in 2018-19 has meant the total circulation of these notes has been on a decline. In the last four years, the total value of the ₹2000 notes in circulation has gone down from ₹6.5 trillion (over 30 per cent of notes in circulation by value) to about ₹3.6 trillion (about 10 per cent of total circulation by value). I guess, left to itself, we might have had this number slide to a smaller number, say below, ₹1 trillion in the next 3 years. The same point is relevant for the ‘clean note policy' since these notes would have eventually come back if they were not being used for transactions and were already at the end of their lifetime. So, the question is, did we need to accelerate something that would have followed a natural path to the policy objective that's desired? Would another three years of these notes in circulation have been detrimental to some policy objective? It is not clear. What's clear is there will be another season of ordinary citizens queuing up in front of bank branches that will begin on Monday. It might be argued that there won't be any panic because the regulator has made it clear that these notes will continue to be legal tender. But who will receive these notes for any transactions starting today? These notes are as good as useless, and for anyone who uses them for transactions or has stored them for any legal purpose, the only way is to get them exchanged for those notes that are both legal and usable. There's always a sense of schadenfreude among the middle class that it is the rich who will suffer. As was seen during the demonetisation exercise, the poor suffer equally, if not more. The cost of the logistics of sending all ₹2000 notes back from ATMs and branches to the RBI, replacing them with notes of other denominations, the extra hours spent by people exchanging their notes in batches of ₹20,000 and the additional measures to be taken to check for the provenance of the money that will come into the banking system and the risk of frauds during this process are all additional costs to the system. There should be a more compelling upside to these costs except to argue that these notes have served their purpose.Lastly, on high denomination notes abetting corruption and fraud, there's some data from experiences in other countries that suggest this. However, experience in India has shown after the initial ‘disruption', the system finds a new equilibrium, and things continue as usual. The idea that demonetisation would aid the digital economy and will bring down cash in circulation was compelling at that time. But as seen, over time, cash in the economy continued to rise despite a significant ramp-up in digital transactions, which might have happened anyway because of UPI. There are more fundamental reasons for corruption that need to be addressed than making a case for smaller denomination notes. Anyway, the corruption argument never gets old in India, where everyone assumes that, barring them, everyone else around is corrupt. So, the usual arguments have started surfacing on social media that this will impact a small minority of people, and they anyway need to answer why they were hoarding these high denomination notes. And, there's the political masterstroke argument which suggests this will derail the fundraising ability of the opposition in this election year. I'm not sure if that's supported by data because we had the unusual scenario of almost 100 per cent of the invalidated denomination notes during demonetisation eventually returning to the RBI. Nobody was wiser when that happened. The only upside at the end of this exercise will possibly be with banks that will have a temporary increase in their deposits. The scramble for deposits that was on because of shrinking liquidity will abate for some time. That will possibly help them support loan growth that was dependent on deposit mobilisation. That might not be a bad outcome, but it is a torturous way to get there. But then we like convolutions.In parallel, there was another interesting piece of policy-making going on. The TCS (tax collected at source) on international credit card spending outside of India. Earlier during the week, reports emerged that all such spends will now attract a TCS of 20 per cent which can then be recovered by individuals at the time of filing their annual return. The Indian Express on Tuesday reported:THE CENTRAL Government, in consultation with the Reserve Bank of India, in a late night notification Tuesday amended rules under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, bringing in international credit card spends outside India under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS). As a consequence, the spending by international credit cards will also attract a higher rate of Tax Collected at Source (TCS) at 20 per cent effective July 1.The notification brings transactions through credit cards outside India under the ambit of the LRS with immediate effect, which enables the higher levy of TCS, as announced in the Budget for 2022-23, from July 1. This is expected to help track high-value overseas transactions and will not apply on the payments for purchase of foreign goods/services from India.Prior to this, the usage of an international credit card to make payments towards meeting expenses during a trip abroad was not covered under the LRS. The spendings through international credit cards were excluded from LRS by way of Rule 7 of the Foreign Exchange Management (Current Account Transaction) Rules, 2000. With the latest notification, Rule 7 has now been omitted, paving way for the inclusion of such spendings under LRS.Now, what could be the reason for this? The Chief Economic Advisor in a column in the Indian Express gave an insight into the thinking:It is a fact that remittances under LRS have increased multi-fold in the last few years, and as per data published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), LRS remittances which were Rs 0.9 trillion in FY2019, crossed Rs 2 trillion in FY2023. During FY2023, an interesting trend was noticed in the remittances for deposits, purchase of immovable property, investment in equity/debt, gifts/donations and travel. Remittances under these heads constituted almost 70 per cent of the total, representing a year-on-year growth of 74 per cent. Foreign travel alone was almost Rs 1.1 trillion in FY2023, a three-fold increase from the pre-Covid period. In all of these, payments made through credit cards are not reflected as such payments were not subject to the LRS limit. This is an anomaly that needed to be fixed anyway.We are back to the old Indian argument. There are people who are spending money on their credit cards abroad that's not captured in the LRS limit. We need to know who these people are and what is the amount they are spending. That's fair. It is an information problem that needs to be solved. Find out who are the people spending this and add it back to their LRS eligibility. Better still, increase the LRS limit so that people can spend more freely. We aren't in the 70s that we need to conserve foreign exchange through means that make the lives of ordinary citizens difficult. Why should a tax be applied to an information problem? And it is conceptually fine to say that this tax amount is only deposited with the government during the transaction and can be recovered at the time of filing the annual return. But there are way too many complications at an operational level, including upfront working capital costs. The challenge of tracking international spending, separating corporate and individual purchases and optimising for the overall LRS limit, especially if people have kids studying abroad, will burden individuals. For card companies, it will mean helping customers track this, figuring out all sorts of exception scenarios when a customer cancels a foreign transaction on which a TCS has already been paid or where they default on payment but the card company has already deposited the TCS with the government. Instead of simplifying the tax structure and remittances, the attempt is to complicate things to catch hold of a few exceptions. And those who claim this impacts only 7 per cent of people who have a passport, I can only say why inconvenience even 1 per cent of citizens if there's no compelling motive. Thankfully, some sense seems to have prevailed, and we had a clarification from the finance ministry on Friday. The ministry clarified:Concerns have been raised about the applicability of Tax Collection at Source (TCS) to small transactions under the Liberalized Remittance Scheme (LRS) from July 1, 2023. To avoid any procedural ambiguity, it has been decided that any payments by an individual using their international Debit or Credit cards up to Rs 7 lakh per financial year will be excluded from the LRS limits and hence, will not attract any TCS.Small mercies. But it still doesn't fully do away with an unnecessary measure. India Policy Watch #2: Technological Learning is a Marathon, Not a SprintInsights on issues relevant to India— Pranay KotasthaneElectronics manufacturing is a hot topic nowadays, as it is being seen as a lead indicator of India's improving manufacturing prowess. Not a week goes by without reports on this topic, ranging from the mobile exports clocked every quarter and the difficulties encountered by companies in localising production to the uptake of the Production-linked Incentives (PLI) scheme to encourage production. Broadly speaking, the analyses can be classified into two simple categories: detractive (“hum se naa ho paayega” type) and presumptuous (“Hum jahan khade ho jaate hain line wahi se shuru hoti hain” type). I contend that both kinds of analyses make a common mistake: they don't appreciate a concept of called technological learning. This leads them to reach similar conclusions, albeit through different perspectives.Dodgson, a scholar of innovation, defines technological learning as “the ways firms build and supplement their knowledge-bases about technologies, products and processes, and develop and improve the use of the broad skills of their workforces”. The assumption is that firms build additional capabilities over time as and when they keep getting better at doing relatively simpler tasks, projects, and processes. The detractors of India's nascent electronics manufacturing are quick to point out that Indian manufacturers' high failure rates are a clear indication that India cannot do large-scale manufacturing. For instance, the news report that iPhone casings produced at Tata's Hosur plant had a 50 per cent failure rate, has become an oft-cited datapoint to downplay India's manufacturing capabilities. While such critiques should not be dismissed lightly, it's also important not to overreact. Electronics manufacturing in China faced pretty much the same challenges; in fact, Chinese manufacturers had far lower yields in the initial phases. Technological learning and upgradation happen over time; it is unrealistic to expect immediate success in this field.On the other hand, fervent supporters believe that the Indian government can boost manufacturing output and export competitiveness merely by implementing industrial policies and import substitution measures. In this model, PLI schemes, higher import tariffs, and infant industry protection are necessary and sufficient conditions for building India's electronics manufacturing sector. This line of thinking also ignores technological learning. Indian firms will have to begin with the assembly of imported components necessarily. In fact, we should be willing to digest a decrease in the domestic value added per unit of demand over the next few years, as was the case in China and Viet Nam. As Indian manufacturing achieves global scale, local content addition will increase by default, as firms seek to optimise costs, and employees go on to become local entrepreneurs. The hurry to localise domestic value addition runs at odds with exporting competitiveness, a point that the self-assured are ignoring.And so, both viewpoints are misguided due to their disregard for the role of technological learning in manufacturing development. It is crucial to acknowledge that gaining proficiency in manufacturing takes time. Naushad Forbes Business Standard article explains this process of learning took place in East Asia:Firms like Samsung, Hyundai, LG, TSMC and Acer did not start as global brands. They began with outsourcing, as original equipment manufacturers or OEMs, building manufacturing operations of global scale. They used their demanding buyers as a source of technology that made them world-competitive. But they did not stop there. They invested in R&D, as process innovation, to make manufacturing more efficient. They then offered their buyers products with new and improved design, moving up the scale to own design and manufacture or ODM, claiming a piece of the innovation rents that came from better products.  This required them to invest in substantial product design capabilities, which over time completely outclassed and replaced the design capabilities of their buyers. And, finally, with world-competitive manufacturing and leading-edge product design in place, they made the shift to own brand manufacture or OBM, launching their own brands, going beyond their home market, spreading step by step into the world. This is the story of Samsung in microwaves and semiconductors, LG in TV sets, Hyundai in cars and excavators, TSMC in microprocessors, and Acer in laptops. This OEM to ODM to OBM story is one of continuous learning. It's crucial to bring technological learning back in conversations on India's manufacturing.P.S.: Earlier this week, the government announced another PLI scheme for "laptops, tablets, all-in-one PCs, servers etc.", with a budgetary outlay of ₹17000 crores over six years. If the government appreciated technological learning, it would accompany this PLI with a reduction in customs duties. Competitive exports need competitive imports of intermediate components and equipment. Matsyanyaaya: Launch India-US Trade into Another OrbitBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneAhead of the Indian PM's visit to the US next month, some of us at Takshashila propose an ambitious agenda on the trade front in this document—increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 and $1 Trillion by 2040.Here're the pathways to achieve this goal:* Expand the existing US-India 2+28 ministerial dialogue: This dialogue currently comprises the Foreign and Defence ministers from both countries. However, to comprehensively address the intricacies of global trade relations, it would be beneficial to transition to a 3+3 format to include both nations' trade and commerce representatives. * Capitalize on the role of states: The economic landscape in India is witnessing a shift towards the states. Various factors that significantly influence business operations, such as land acquisition and law and order, predominantly lie under the jurisdiction of individual states. Owing to India's vast size and diverse nature, different states have fostered their unique strengths and advantages. The trade relations between the two nations can be further enhanced through a partnership where groups of states engage in reciprocal visits each year, bolstering trade ties and fostering mutual growth. * The Trade Policy Forum (TPF) must be held every year. It is the right cadence to ensure disciplined action and follow-through on ambitious goals. The institutional memory of the TPF will work to create continuity. The old adage "we overestimate what can be done in one year and underestimate what can be done in 5 or 10 years" is particularly applicable here. * The organic growth in trade between companies on either side needs only the occasional enablement. Trade in technology services, pharmaceuticals, SaaS, industrial goods and many other sectors can continue. It will benefit from forums like the US-India Business Council (USIBC) that seek to remove frictions in the ordinary conduct of business and shine a light on some sticky areas. * Create plurilateral trade partnerships. Until now, the US and India do not together find themselves in any regional trade partnership. The revived QUAD, with a heavy security focus, will be one such partnership with significant trade implications. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) proposed this summer is a promising way to advance on a partnership, but the partnership details must be worked out. For the greater good, India and the US will have to work out sticking points in the data & privacy sections of the agreement. There appears to be significant mutual concurrence on tax, anti-corruption and clean energy, the other three pillars of the IPEF agreement. * Trade in high-technology sectors would get a fillip from the two governments setting up specific framework agreements. The new US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) is an example of a framework agreement that could kickstart interaction between government, industry and academia in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, 5G/6G telecommunications, quantum computing, biotech, deep ocean and space technologies. * In commercial and societal terms, the exchange of people will be the biggest binding factor between the two countries. In the short term, reciprocal visa access and availability should be addressed on a priority basis. In the longer term, both sides should work on Indians being separated from the general pool of "H1" applicants and in a category of their own. Additionally, the thresholds for each country employing citizens of the other should be brought down gradually. [From Narayan Ramachandran et al., “Time to Launch the US-India Trade Relationship into Another Orbit,” Takshashila Policy Advisory 2023-02]HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Article] Anupam Manur on the ₹2,000 note withdrawal in Moneycontrol — “Like a nightmare resulting from a traumatic experience for a person suffering from PTSD, demonetisation came back to haunt the collective consciousness of this country when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to recall the 2000 rupee note.”* [Podcast] In the next Puliyabaazi, Devashish Dhar talks about cities, urbanisation, working in government, etc. Strongly recommend it to people considering public policy as a career option.* [Articles 1, 2, & 3] Naushad Forbes' series on private R&D and national innovation in Business Standard is a must-read for those interested in technology geopolitics and tech policy. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

Anticipating The Unintended
#210 Metastability

Anticipating The Unintended

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2023 19:42


Global Policy Watch: Much Ado About De-dollarisationReflections on global policy issues— RSJThis week, Donald Trump urged Republican lawmakers to let the U.S. default on its debt if the Democrats don't agree on massive budget cuts. Trump likened the people running the U.S. treasury to ‘drunken sailors', an epithet I can get behind. Default is not something Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, can even begin to imagine. As CNBC reported, Yellen chose strong words to express her views if the debt ceiling was not raised by the House:“The notion of defaulting on our debt is something that would so badly undermine the U.S. and global economy that I think it should be regarded by everyone as unthinkable,” she told reporters. “America should never default.”When asked about steps the Biden administration could take in the wake of a default, Yellen emphasized that lawmakers must raise the debt ceiling.“There is no good alternative that will save us from catastrophe. I don't want to get into ranking which bad alternative is better than others, but the only reasonable thing is to raise the debt ceiling and to avoid the dreadful consequences that will come,” she told reporters, noting that defaulting on debt can be prevented.There is more than a grain of truth there in some of her apparent hyperbole. The U.S. hegemony in the global financial system runs on trust that they won't default on their debt. Take that trust out of the equation, and what have you got left? This is somewhat more salient in these times when there's a talk of de-dollarisation going around. Russia and China have been keen to trade in their own currencies between themselves and other partners who are amenable to this idea. And they have found some traction in this idea from other countries who aren't exactly bit players in the global economy. In March this year, the yuan overtook the dollar in being the predominant currency used for cross-border transactions in China. Here's a quick run-through of what different countries have been doing to reduce their dollar dependence. Russia and Saudi Arabia are using yuan to settle payments for gas and oil trade. Russia offloaded a lot of US dollars in its foreign reserves before the start of the war and replaced it with gold and yuan. It will possibly continue building yuan reserves in future. Brazil is already doing trade settlements in yuan and is also using the CIPS (China's response to US-dominated SWIFT) for international financial messaging services. Argentina and Thailand seem to be also doing more of their trade with China in yuan. And I'm not including the likes of Pakistan, Bangladesh and other smaller economies that have politically or economically tied themselves up with China and are following suit. And a few weeks back, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, also raised the issue of strategic autonomy of the EU after his visit to Beijing. As Politico reported:Macron also argued that Europe had increased its dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy and must now focus on boosting European defense industries. He also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar,” a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing. “If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won't have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals,” he said.You get the picture. This idea of de-dollarisation seems to be gaining traction. How real is this possibility? There are possibly three lenses to look at this issue, and we will cover them in this edition.Why the recent hate for the dollar?A useful area to start with is to understand where this desire to find alternatives to the dollar is emerging. I mean, it is obvious why Russia and China are doing it and the way the U.S. used its dominance over the financial system to shut out Russia. Companies were barred from trading with Russia, Russian banks couldn't access SWIFT and networks like Visa and Mastercard stopped their operations. Russia got the message but so did other large economies that didn't think of themselves firmly in the U.S. camp. ‘What if' questions began circulating among policymakers there. What if, in future, a somewhat unpredictable U.S. president decides to do this to us? And once you start building these scenarios, you soon realise the extent of dependence the global financial system has on not just the dollar but, beyond it, to the infrastructure and rules of the game developed by the U.S. corporations. There's been a measured retreat ever since. In India, a visible example of this has been the push toward Rupay by the regulator and the government in lieu of Visa and Mastercard. But merely looking at the U.S. response to Russia as the reason would be missing the longer-term trend. In his book ‘Bucking the Buck', Daniel McDowell shows data on the annual number of executive orders that instruct the US Treasury to enforce financial sanctions against specially designated nationals (SDNs). These were rarities in the 70s. By the early 2000s, such annual orders were in their low twenties and in the last few years, they have reached the three-figure mark. It is clear that the U.S. is using its enormous clout as the owner of the global reserve currency and financial infrastructure to punish those who fall out of line. This is war by other means. Interestingly, this ‘sanctions happy' behaviour in the last decade coincided with a wave of populist leaders coming into power in many countries who would not like to be seen as weak or held to ransom by the U.S. This has meant these states have used strategic autonomy as a plank to pursue their interests to go around the U.S. built system. I don't see this trend abating any time soon. The future U.S. administrations will continue to use financial coercion as a tool because it appears bloodless, and the larger economies will continue freeing themselves from this hegemony one system at a time. The tough and fortuitous road to becoming a reserve currencyBut does that mean we will eventually end up with de-dollarisation? Well, there are two things to appreciate here. How does a currency become a reserve currency? How did the dollar become one? And once it does, what keeps it there? If you go back a little over a hundred years, most countries in the world pegged their currencies to gold as a means of facilitating cross-border trade and stabilising currencies. But during World War 1, it became difficult for these countries to fund their war expenses without printing paper money and devaluing their currencies. Britain continued adhering to the gold standard, but it was difficult for it to sustain its war efforts too. It had to borrow to run its expenses during and after WWI. Between the two wars, the U.S. became a huge exporter of goods and armament to the rest of the world, and it took the payment in gold. By the time World War 2 was ending, the U.S. had hoarded most of the world's gold, which made going back to the gold standard impossible because other countries just didn't have any gold. When the allied nations met at Bretton Woods to discuss the new financial world order after the war, it became quite clear that the only real option of managing a foreign exchange system was one that would have all other currencies pegged to the dollar, which would then be linked to gold. It is important to understand that there was no specific effort made to replace Pound as the international reserve currency. It just became inevitable, given the mix of circumstances. Around the same time and for a decade after, the U.S. led the post-war reconstruction efforts in Western Europe and Japan, which gave it a political clout that was unmatched. This political dominance, along with the remnants of the Bretton Woods agreement, is what runs the global currency system in our times, though, in the 70s, the U.S. delinked the dollar from gold as well. That led to the floating exchange rates system that exists today and the dollarisation of the global economy. Over time countries learnt to accumulate their foreign exchange reserves in dollars by buying U.S. treasury bills. Together with the IMF and WB and the associated ecosystem that got built around the U.S. dollar, it became the force that it is today. Now for any currency to replace the U.S. dollar, it has to have the happy coincidence of being a dominant political and economic force, a lack of alternatives for the countries and an alternative to Bretton Wood (or a modification of the same) which can replace the current system. It is very difficult to imagine how something like this can happen unless there is a global crisis of a magnitude where a rebaselining of everything becomes the only way ahead. That brings us to the other point on what sustains the dollar as a reserve currency. There are multiple factors at play here. There are, of course, the network effects of the dollar being deeply embedded in so many commercial ecosystems that taking it out is rife with friction and pain. Also, the dollar is fully convertible, which makes it convenient for others to use it as a store of value. It has remained stable; its market is deep and liquid, enabling easy conversion of bonds to cash and vice versa; there exists a mature insurance market to cover currency risks and above all, we have an implicit guarantee that the U.S. will not default on its debt. This is a trust that has been built over the last eight decades because the world believes the U.S. will run a rule-based order with a strong legal framework to ensure no single person can override rules or conventions. Yawn when you hear Yuan as the next reserve currency So, how does one see the efforts of China or Russia to wean themselves away from this dollar-dominated system? Will the yuan be able to replace the dollar ever? Apart from the points mentioned above, which led to the dollar being in a unique place in the world in the post-war days and which won't repeat itself any time soon, there are other fundamental issues with the idea of the yuan as a reserve currency. To begin with, it isn't convertible, and China runs a ‘closed' capital account system. It is difficult to move money in and out of the country freely. You will need approvals. The opaque legal system, the authoritarian one-party (one-man) rule and the lack of depth in the yuan market mean it is impossible to imagine any prudent central bank risking its entire foreign exchange reserve in yuan. China could turn into an economic giant by exploiting a global trade order without adhering to its associated political expectations. But to think it could do the same in currency exchange order is a pipe dream. Even the numbers of the recent past bear this out. For all the talk of de-dollarisation, there has been a net sell-off of Chinese government bonds by private players in the last year. No one wants to sit on Chinese bonds if things go south in the global political economy. The central banks around the world who have wanted to diversify away from the dollar in their foreign exchange reserve don't seem to have walked their talk. Even they have been net sellers of Chinese government bonds barring the initial days of the Ukraine war. Lastly, China is still struggling to raise consumption in its economy because, with a closed capital account and surplus capacity, it doesn't know what to do with the surplus yuan. Without consumption going up, it will make things worse if it starts becoming a reserved or a semi-reserve currency for the world. The probability of de-dollarisation seems to be hugely exaggerated at this moment. The alternatives are worse, and for those who complain about the coercive nature of U.S. diplomacy because of their financial clout, wait till you have China with that power. You can check with Sri Lanka for how it feels to be under China's thumb economically. Also, none of the hype around bitcoin, stablecoin or CBDC is ever going to materialise for them to replace the dollar. The recent events have shown the fairly flimsy ground on which the bitcoin exchanges (banks?) run. It is difficult to see the lack of trust to change in a hurry. But this also doesn't mean the trend towards diversification of central banks' reserves will buck soon. The gradual move towards reducing dependence on the dollar and its associated ecosystem will continue. Should the U.S. be worried about this? It shouldn't, really. It draws enormous privilege for being the reserve currency of the world. It makes its job to borrow or access money very easy. And the fact that it is a safe haven means it benefits from every crisis. But it should also be clear that this privilege has hurt its ability to export because the dollar remains stronger than it should. This, in turn, has led to the financialisation of the U.S. economy, with the rich getting richer and an evisceration of the U.S. manufacturing capabilities. Reserve diversification won't be such a bad thing for them. But that might mean a reduction of a few hundred basis points in what central banks hold globally in U.S. treasuries. That won't de-dollarise the world. For that to happen, something catastrophic will need to happen. Maybe that's why Yellen used that word about the possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its debt. That's the kind of self-goal they must avoid.  Matsyanyaaya: The Two Equilibria in India-US RelationsBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneThere has been a healthy debate over the last couple of weeks on the state of the India-US relationship. In a Foreign Affairs article, Ashley Tellis, a key figure in the 2005 civil nuclear deal, a well-known realist scholar, and a strong proponent of stronger India-US relations, cast some doubt on the burgeoning partnership. The article, provocatively titled ‘America's bad bet on India', concludes thus: The United States should certainly help India to the degree compatible with American interests. But it should harbor no illusions that its support, no matter how generous, will entice India to join it in any military coalition against China. The relationship with India is fundamentally unlike those that the United States enjoys with its allies. The Biden administration should recognize this reality rather than try to alter it.Tellis reasons that India wants a closer relationship with the US to increase its own national power, not to preserve the liberal international order or to collaborate on mutual defence against China. He further argues that the US ‘generosity' towards India is unlikely to help achieve its strategic aim of securing meaningful military contributions from India to defeat any Chinese aggression in East Asia or the South China Sea. As you would imagine, this article put the cat amongst the pigeons. However, I agree with the fundamental argument. Expectation setting is important, and it is true that India is unlikely to behave like a weaker ally; the US-India relationship will most certainly have some shades that the US-China relationship had between 1980 and 2005. In what seems to be a rejoinder to this article, Ashok Malik—previously a policy advisor in the external affairs ministry—argues that fixating on India's role in a hypothetical war on Taiwan is a wrong question to ask, an imagined roadblock that even the Biden administration isn't overly concerned about. Instead, Malik lists the growing relationship in several domains to conclude that the two administrations are far more sanguine, having figured out an approach to work with each other despite key differences. I agree with this view as well. There's no doubt that the India-US relationship has grown across sectors despite fundamental differences during an ongoing war in Europe. It is easy to. observe the shift in India-US conversations at the policy execution levels. The talks are no longer about the whys but about the hows. Gone are the days when the India-US partnership conversations began with Pakistan and ended with Russia, with the two sides taking potshots at each other in between. The conversations are about debating realistic projects that India and the US could accomplish together in areas such as space, biotechnology, semiconductors, and defence. How, then, can I agree with two seemingly opposing views? Because they aren't mutually exclusive. The India-US relationship is so far behind the production possibility frontier on technology, trade and defence that there are enough low-hanging fruits to pick. And that's exactly what we are seeing now. But if the US president were to change, or if there were to be an escalation around Taiwan, the India-US relationship would likely hit a ceiling that Tellis warns about. In edition #165, I proposed a tri-axis framework to look at the India-US relationship: state-to-state relations, state-to-people relations, and people-to-people relations. There has never been a problem on the people-to-people axis. Like Mr Malik, I, too, think that state-to-state relations have turned a corner. However, it is the state-to-people axis which is the problematic axis. Many Indians still seem to harbour a deep frustration with the American State. On the other hand, many Americans also have doubts about the Indian State as a strategic actor. Finally, it's only the two administrations that can break this ceiling. The trade-offs aren't easy, but they are real. Without the Indian government committing itself to do more to counter the Chinese military threat in the seas, the US is unlikely to transfer cutting-edge technologies. Likewise, unless the US quits its stubbornness to give more Indian products preferential access to its markets or delivers on the asymmetric promises under the technology and defence agreements, India is unlikely to revise its stance. In other words, the stage is set for the Indian PM's official state visit to the US next month. India Policy Watch #1: Generalists vs General EquilibriumInsights on issues relevant to India— Pranay KotasthaneNon-civil services folks who have worked in governments are almost always extremely insightful. Perhaps, their experience working with the bureaucracy gives them a filter to reject impractical ideas, while their breadth of knowledge allows them to take a long-term view of policy ideas. These "scholar-warriors" are often able to get to the root of issues.One such person is Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who was a guest on this week's Ideas of India podcast. Among the many insights he delivers, one that switched a lightbulb on for me was the segment on "generalists vs specialists" in government. While this is an old debate, one that civil service "mains" exam takers would not so fondly recall, this conversation made me think somewhat differently. Responding to a question on the HR problems in government, Ahluwalia says:There's big bias within the government against people wanting to specialize. The IAS' view of itself is, it's a generalist service. This I think is a bit of a colonial hangover. You come from England to rule the country; expertise is looked down upon. But in this day and age, we ought to be encouraging the people who are really into IT—there's no point putting someone who's really made up his mind that he wants to be in IT to have a stint in education and health and road transport and that sort of stuff.At another point in the episode, he begins the journey of a policy reform as follows:In the Indian system, and maybe it's true in all systems, every area is assigned to a ministry, and changes of policy that belong (in a narrow sense) to that area are the responsibility of the ministry. There are two problems here. One is, the functioning of a system as a whole requires you to do more than just add up what needs to be done in each area, because you want to look at what the economist would call a general equilibrium approach. If you want to reach a particular result, you've got to do A over here, B over there, C over there.I think there's a deeper insight at the intersection of these two dimensions. The “generalists vs specialists” debate masks another important dimension of effectiveness—whether the person approaches a problem with general equilibrium thinking or is limited to partial equilibrium analysis.General equilibrium analysis takes into account the long-term interactions of a large number of economic agents. In mathematical terms, it is based on the assumption that several variables can change at once in response to a policy change. Partial equilibrium analysis, on the other hand, focuses narrowly on one sector and a handful of variables. Ahluwalia explains that generalist civil service officers can default to partial equilibrium analysis because they are blinkered by their ministry mandates and interests. For example, few bureaucrats from the Ministry of Commerce will advocate that a unilateral lowering of tariffs will be beneficial to India, even though a general equilibrium analysis says so. However, many specialists also fall into this same trap, albeit for different reasons. An urban planner is likely to hate mixed-use neighbourhoods, while an environmentalist might argue that all mining is evil. These partial equilibria arise from the failure to see the interlinkages across the economy, a crucial aspect of general equilibrium analysis. So, irrespective of whether you are a generalist or a specialist, what matters is whether the bureaucrats are able to approach problems with a general equilibrium mindset. The current government mechanism to move career bureaucrats across ministries through deputations is probably a sub-optimal way to achieve competence in this dimension. The second mechanism is to have intra-ministerial committees or expert committees. Organisations such as the Planning Commission, Niti Aayog, or the PMO are supposed to bring in a general equilibrium mindset as well. The question is which of these bodies is best equipped to do this in this way. Probably, another way to push towards this equilibrium is to have economists and behavioural sociologists in many ministries so that their internal recommendations take a broader view beyond the self-protection of ministerial turfs. PS: There's a nice chapter on “Trace the general equilibrium effects” in In Service of the Republic by Shah & Kelkar.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* A Twitter friend asked for book recommendations to understand post-independence Indian economic history. These are the ones that came to mind:* India's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity by Vijay Joshi* India: the Emerging Giant by Arvind Panagariya* India's Tryst with Destiny by Arvind Panagariya and Jagdish Bhagwati* Backstage: The Story Behind India's High Growth Years by Montek Singh Ahluwalia &* Changing India volume, this set is a compilation of Manmohan Singh's papers (reading level: advanced) * [Podcast] This Grand Tamasha episode is a great introduction to internal security in India, backed by the latest research and data on a crucial yet under-discussed topic. * [Podcast] Should there be a caste census? Here's a Puliyabaazi on this topic that's sure to gain more traction as the national election draws near. We present two opposing perspectives, one by Yogendra Yadav and the other by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, before reaching our own divergent conclusions. Listen in and tell us what you think. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

PM full episode
Visiting Indian PM strikes deal on migrant worker mobility

PM full episode

Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2023 30:48


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi struck new agreements with his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese on migration and green hydrogen, while raising concerns about attacks on Hindu temples in Sydney.

SBS World News Radio
Modi Mania hits as Indian PM arrives in Sydney

SBS World News Radio

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2023 3:45


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arrived in Sydney for talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese - the sixth for the two leaders. Likely to focus on the countries' defence and trade relationships, and transitions to clean energy sources, also at play are regional influence and human right issues.

SBS Assyrian
Support for 'Little India' builds as Indian PM visits Australia

SBS Assyrian

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2023 7:04


While the Quad meeting has been cancelled, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still travelling to Australia for bilateral talks. A precinct in the Sydney suburb of Harris Park is on track to be officially known as 'Little India' - and members of the Indian-Australian community hope support for an official name change will gather support during Mr Modi's first visit in almost 10 years.

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी
SBS Hindi Newsflash 23 May 2023: Fans gather in Sydney to give Indian PM Narendra Modi rock star welcome

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2023 6:04


In this Hindi Newsflash: Thousands flock to Sydney to welcome Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi; Victoria's Treasurer Tim Pallas unveils his budget plan to pay down the state's Covid debt: And in sport, Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings to battle against each other in first qualifier of IPL 2023 and more.

SBS World News Radio
Support builds for 'Little India' as Indian PM visits Australia

SBS World News Radio

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2023 5:07


While the Quad meeting has been cancelled, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will still travel to Australia for bilateral talks. A precinct in the Sydney suburb of Harris Park is on track to be officially known as 'Little India' - a change supporters hope will gather support during Mr Modi's first visit in almost 10 years.

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी
SBS Hindi News 22 May 2023: PM Albanese returns home from G7 summit, Indian PM to follow

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2023 12:34


In this latest Hindi bulletin: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese returns home from G7 summit as Indian Prime minister expected to reach Australia tonight; Indian PM Modi co-chairs Forum for India Pacific Islands Cooperation; Socceroos to play a friendly match with Argentina in China next month and more.

SBS Punjabi - ਐਸ ਬੀ ਐਸ ਪੰਜਾਬੀ
Calls for renaming of 'Little India' to be expedited, formalised ahead of Indian PM's visit to Australia - ਭਾਰਤੀ ਪ੍ਰਧਾਨ ਮੰਤਰੀ ਦੇ ਆਸਟ੍ਰੇਲੀਆ ਦੌਰੇ ਤੋਂ ਪਹਿਲਾਂ ਰਸਮੀ ਤ

SBS Punjabi - ਐਸ ਬੀ ਐਸ ਪੰਜਾਬੀ

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2023 10:24


Gurmeet Singh Tuli, President of Little India Australia, says that despite the Parramatta City Council passing a motion in 2019 to rename three streets of Harris Park to 'Little India', a formal application has yet to be lodged with the official naming board. - 'ਲਿਟਲ ਇੰਡੀਆ ਆਸਟ੍ਰੇਲੀਆ' ਦੇ ਪ੍ਰਧਾਨ ਗੁਰਮੀਤ ਸਿੰਘ ਤੁਲੀ ਦਾ ਕਹਿਣਾ ਹੈ ਕਿ 'ਪੈਰਾਮਾਟਾ ਸਿਟੀ ਕਾਉਂਸਿਲ' ਵੱਲੋਂ 2019 ਵਿੱਚ 'ਹੈਰਿਸ ਪਾਰਕ' ਦੀਆਂ ਤਿੰਨ ਗਲੀਆਂ ਦਾ ਨਾਂ ਬਦਲ ਕੇ 'ਲਿਟਲ ਇੰਡੀਆ' ਕਰਨ ਲਈ ਮਤਾ ਪਾਸ ਕਰਨ ਦੇ ਬਾਵਜੂਦ ਅਧਿਕਾਰਤ ਨਾਮਕਰਨ ਬੋਰਡ ਕੋਲ ਰਸਮੀ ਅਰਜ਼ੀ ਦਾਇਰ ਕੀਤੀ ਜਾਣੀ ਅਜੇ ਵੀ ਬਾਕੀ ਹੈ।

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी
SBS Hindi News 07 May 2023: Federal budget to include energy bill relief

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2023 10:28


In this latest Hindi bulletin: Treasurer Jim Chalmers has announced energy bill reliefs for over five million households in the upcoming budget; Indian PM congratulates King Charles III on his coronation; Remco Evenepoel storms to victory in stage one of Giro d'Italia, and more.

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी
India report : Indian PM Modi holds bilateral talks with Bhutan King

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 5, 2023 7:28


Listen to the latest SBS Hindi news from India. 05/04/2023

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी
India report : Indian PM speaks with King Charles, discusses key issues

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 4, 2023 7:25


Listen to the SBS Hindi news from India. 04/01/2023

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी
India report : Indian PM's mother Heeraben Modi passes away

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 30, 2022 7:10


Listen to the latest SBS Hindi news from India. 30/12/2022

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी
India report : Indian PM reviews COVID-19 situation at high-level meeting

SBS Hindi - SBS हिंदी

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2022 7:07


Listen to the latest SBS Hindi news from India. 23/12/2022

The Pilot Boys Podcast
#166 - REDEYE - Ye gets cancelled, UK gets first Indian PM, Changes in College Enrollment, Gig Economy's Future

The Pilot Boys Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2022 47:08


V and Partha chat on a rainy day in Dallas about this week's trending topics in news and life.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Simon Marks Reporting
May 2, 2022 - Indian PM Modi begins 3-nation tour of Europe as Ukraine tensions mount

Simon Marks Reporting

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2022 6:48


Simon anchored Monday's edition of "Live Broadcast" from Washington for India's international news channel WION.

Ray Appleton
Hour 1 - ‘Tens Of Thousands' Dead In Mariupol. Biden To Speak To Indian PM Modi. David Horowitz Joins The Ray Appleton Show

Ray Appleton

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2022 38:10


Tens of thousands of people have been killed in Ukraine's hardest-hit city, Mariupol, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed Monday — as his chief prosecutor called Russian President Vladimir Putin the “main war criminal of the 21st century.” President Joe Biden is set to speak with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday as he presses world leaders to take a hard line against Russia's Ukraine invasion.David Horowitz is a noted conservative commentator and a national bestselling author. His books on the Trump wars have sold over 500,000 copies. He is the founder and CEO of the David Horowitz Freedom Center in Los Angeles and the author of The Enemy Within, Blitz, Big Agenda, and The Black Book of the American Left. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.