Podcasts about indian state

The Indus Valley Annual Report, published by Blume Ventures, is an annual deep-dive into the Indian macroeconomy, the Indian consumer, and the innovation ecosystem in India. The report has become one of the most highly anticipated reports on the economy—pored over by policy wonks, economic analysts, and India watchers.The lead author of the report is Sajith Pai. Sajith is a partner at Blume Ventures, an early stage venture firm with offices in Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi, and San Francisco. Sajith oversees consumer and India B2B investing at Blume. Prior to joining Blume, Sajith had a two-decade career in various corporate strategy roles with the Times of India Group.To talk more about this year's report, Sajith joins Milan from his office in Noida. The two discuss the origins and objectives of the Indus Valley Annual Report, India's post-pandemic recovery trajectory, and India's low (and declining) savings rate. Plus, the two discuss the trials and tribulations of India's manufacturing sector and whether India can become an artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse.Episode notes:1. Abhishek Anand et al., “How quality control orders are crippling India's trade competitiveness,” Business Standard, March 4, 2025.2. Abhishek Anand et al., “Multiplying multi-plants: A new and consequential phenomenon,” Journal of Development Economics 174 (May 2025).3. “Sajith Pai Unpacks the 2024 Indus Valley Annual Report and the Changing Indian Consumer,” Ides of India (podcast), July 4, 2024.4. “Will India's Budget 2025 Turn the Economic Tide? (with Sukumar Ranganathan),” Grand Tamasha, February 5, 2025.

Over the past twelve months, tales of spies and spycraft have complicated India's relationships with key Western partners.In recent months, both Canada and the United States have alleged that India's foreign intelligence agency was involved in a complex plot to identify and target Khalistani separatists who were citizens of those countries.In India, these allegations have, in turn, revealed deep skepticism about the actions of western spy agencies and the negative role they've played in India and across the Global South.A new book, Spying in South Asia: Britain, the United States, and India's Secret Cold War, offers the first comprehensive history of US and UK intelligence operations in the Indian subcontinent. The author of this book is Paul McGarr, a lecturer in Intelligence Studies at King's College London.To talk more about his new book—and the West's 50-year battle to win the hearts and minds of Indians—Paul joins Milan on the show this week.The two discuss India's tradition of spycraft, the long shadow of the British Raj, and secret collaboration between the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and its Indian counterparts. Plus, the two discuss why the covert efforts of British and American intelligence agencies in 20th century India largely proved to be misguided and self-defeating.Episode notes:1. VIDEO: “Indira Gandhi Overdid the ‘Foreign Hand' but Some of Her Fears About the CIA were real ,” The Wire, November 21, 2024.2. “Inside the Secret World of South Asia's Spies (with Adrian Levy),” Grand Tamasha, October 27, 2021.

Here's an AI-generated podcast based on this essay (courtesy Google's NotebookLM): always entertaining and appealing. Full disclosure: Parts of this essay were also written by AI, and edited.The entire sorry spat with the Canadians, the tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats and a virtual breakdown of ties leads to a good question. Are the Americans behind it (and if so why?), because for all practical purposes, Canada takes the lead from its Five Eyes friends and mentors? Several commentators have suggested that this is so. Trudeau is not a serious politician, as he demonstrated in this photograph in blackface acting allegedly as an “Indian potentate”.But the Deep State is deadly serious. They have meddled in country after country, leading to the utter misery of their populations. I can, off the top of my head, count several: Salvador Allende's Chile, Patrice Lumumba's Congo, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Muammar Ghaddafi's Libya, Bashar Assad's Syria, not to mention Sihanouk's Cambodia. We have to make a distinction between the US public in general and the Deep State. The nation as a whole still believes in the noble ideals of the American Revolution, and American individuals are among the most engaging in the world; however, the Deep State is self-aggrandizing, and now poses a potent danger to the US itself as well as others. Alas, it is taking its eye off its real foe, China, with what probably will be disastrous consequences.  The Khalistani threat is a significant concern for India because it appears that the Deep State is applying pressure through proxies. Since it likes to stick to simple playbooks, we have some recent and nerve-racking precedents: Ukraine https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/trudeau-is-us-deep-states-zelensky-2-0-why-india-should-fight-canadas-diplomatic-war-with-all-its-might-13827294.html) and Bangladesh https://rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/p/ep-134-the-geo-political-fallout.So what exactly is in store for India after the new POTUS is chosen, which is just two weeks away? US betting markets are suggesting that Donald Trump will win, but it's likely that Kamala Harris will emerge as POTUS. I was among the few in India who predicted a Trump win in 2016; admittedly I predicted a Trump win in 2020, and I do believe there were um… irregularities. I think in 2024 Trump would win if it were a fair fight, but it is not.But I fear the vote will be rigged and lopsided, partly because of the vast numbers of illegal aliens who will be, or already have been, allowed to vote (by mail). Every day, I hear of strange practices in swing states, as in this tweet. There is room for a lot of irregularities.On the other hand, the Indian-American voter (“desi”), apparently, will continue to vote for the Democratic Party, with some reason: there is racism in the Republican rank and file; but then let us remember that anti-black racism in the US South had Democratic roots: George Wallace and Bull Connor and “Jim Crow”. The Republicans had their “Southern Strategy” too, to inflame racial tensions. The racism Indian-Americans, particularly Hindus, face today is more subtle, but I doubt that the indentured labor and Green Card hell will get any better with Kamala Harris as President. I suspect 100+ year waits for a Green Card will continue. A Harris presidency could introduce several challenges for India across various domains, including economics, foreign policy, terrorism, and military affairs. It is appropriate to consider historical contexts, especially the stances of previous Democratic administrations and notable figures. In particular, Bill Clinton, Madeleine Albright and Robin Raphel come to mind: they were especially offensive to India and India's interests. The Biden Amendment, and Bill Clinton/Hillary Clinton's efforts delayed India's cryogenic rocket engine and thus its space program by 19 years. https://www.rediff.com/news/column/who-killed-the-isros-cryogenic-engine/20131118.htmOne of the most vivid historical examples is that of Japan's economy. After a dream run in the 1960s and 1970s, when they seriously threatened American supremacy in trade based on their high-quality and low-priced products, the Japanese were felled by the Plaza Accord of 1985, which forced the yen to appreciate significantly against the dollar.The net result was that Japanese products lost their competitive pricing edge. Furthermore, it led to an interest rate cut by the Japanese central bank, which created an enormous asset bubble. The bursting of that bubble led to a Lost Decade in the 1990s, and the nation has not yet recovered from that shock. One could say that the reserve currency status of the dollar was used to bludgeon the Japanese economy to death.Having observed this closely, China took special care to do two things: one, to infiltrate the US establishment, and two, to lull them into a false sense of security. Captains of industry were perfectly happy, with their short-term personal incentives, to move production to China for increased profits. Wall Street was quite willing to finance China, too. Politicians were willing to suspend disbelief, and to pursue the fantasy that a prosperous China would be somehow like America, only with East Asian features. Wrong. China is a threat now. But the Deep State learned from that mistake: they will not let another competitor thrive. The possible economic rise of India is something that will be opposed tooth and nail. In the background there is the possible collapse of the US dollar as the reserve currency (i.e. dedollarization), because of ballooning US debt and falling competitiveness, and the emergence of mechanisms other than Bretton Woods and the SWIFT network (e.g. the proposed blockchain-based, decentralized BRICS currency called UNIT).Besides, the Deep State has a clear goal for India: be a supine supplier of raw materials, including people; and a market for American goods, in particular weapons. Ideally India will be ruled by the Congress party, which, through incompetence or intent, steadily impoverished India: see how nominal per capita income collapsed under that regime until the reforms of 1991 (data from tradingeconomics and macrotrends). The massive devaluations along the way also hurt the GDP statistics, with only modest gains in trade. Another future that the Deep State has in mind for India could well be balkanization: just like the Soviet Union was unraveled, it may assiduously pursue the unwinding of the Indian State through secession, “sub-national diplomacy” and so forth. The value of India as a hedge against a rampaging China does not seem to occur to Democrats; in this context Trump in his presidency was much more positive towards India.Chances are that a Harris presidency will cost India dear,  in all sorts of ways:Foreign Policy Challenges1. Kashmir, Khalistan and Regional Dynamics: Harris has previously expressed support for Kashmiri separatism and criticized India's actions in the region. This stance could complicate U.S.-India relations, especially if she seeks to engage with groups advocating Kashmiri secession. The persistent support for Khalistan, including its poster boy Gurpatwant Singh Pannun who keeps warning of blowing up Indian planes, shows the Democrats have invested in this policy.2. Alignment with Anti-India Elements: Her connections with leftist factions within the Democratic Party, which have historically taken a hard stance against India, may result in policies that are less favorable to Indian interests. The influence of figures like Pramila Jayapal could further strain relations.3. Balancing Act with China: While the U.S. aims to counter Chinese influence in Asia, Harris's approach may involve a nuanced engagement with China that could leave India feeling sidelined in strategic discussions. Barack Obama, if you remember, unilaterally ceded to China the task of overseeing the so-called “South Asia”. Harris may well be content with a condominium arrangement with China: see https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-a-us-china-condominium-dividing-up-the-world-between-themselves-12464262.html 4. Foreign Policy Independence: An India that acts in its own national interests is anathema to many in the US establishment. The clear Indian message that the Ukraine war and perhaps even the Gaza war are unfortunate events, but that they are peripheral to Indian interests, did not sit well with the Biden administration. In a sense, just as Biden pushed Russia into China's arms, he may well be doing the same with India: the recently announced patrolling agreement between India and China may also be a signal to the Harris camp.Terrorism and Security Concerns1. Counterterrorism Cooperation: A shift towards prioritizing “human rights” may affect U.S.-India counterterrorism cooperation, as can already be seen in the case of Khalistanis. If Harris's administration emphasizes civil liberties over security measures, it could limit joint operations aimed at combating terrorism emanating especially from Pakistan..2. Support for Separatist Movements and Secession: Increased U.S. support for groups that advocate for self-determination in regions like Kashmir might embolden separatist movements within India (see Sonam Wangchuk in Ladakh, and the alleged Christian Zo nation that Sheikh Hasina said the US wanted to carve out of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar), posing a significant internal security challenge.Military Affairs1. Defense Collaborations: Although military ties have strengthened under previous administrations, a Harris presidency might introduce hesitancy in defense collaborations due to her potential focus on alleged human rights issues within India's military operations. This is a double-edged sword because it could also induce more self-reliance, as well as defense exports, by India. 2. Historical Precedents: The historical context of U.S. military interventions in South Asia, such as the deployment of the Seventh Fleet during the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971, raises concerns about how a Harris administration might respond to regional conflicts involving India. 3. Strategic Partnerships: Any perceived shift in U.S. commitment to India as a strategic partner could embolden adversarial nations like China and Pakistan, thereby destabilizing the region further. This, at a time when China is vastly outspending all its neighbors in Asia in its military budget (data from CSIS).Economic Implications1. Increased Scrutiny on “Human Rights”: Harris's administration may adopt a more critical stance towards India's human rights record, particularly concerning alleged violations of minority rights and alleged mistreatment of dissent, although there is reason to believe this is mostly a convenient stick to beat India with rather than a real concern: we see how the real human rights violations of Hindus in Bangladesh raise no alarms. This scrutiny could have economic repercussions, such as reduced foreign investment from companies concerned about reputational risks associated with human rights violations, and possible sanctions based on the likes of the USCIRF's (US Council on International Religious Freedom) report.2. Shift in Trade Policies: Historical Democratic administrations have often prioritized labor rights and environmental standards in trade agreements. If Harris follows this trend, India might face stricter trade conditions that could hinder its export-driven sectors.3. Focus on Domestic Issues: Harris's potential prioritization of domestic issues over international relations may lead to a diminished focus on strengthening economic ties with India, which could stall ongoing initiatives aimed at boosting bilateral trade and investment.Social Issues1.  Anti-Hindu feeling: There has been a demonstrable increase in antipathy shown towards Hindus in the US, with a number of incidents of desecration of Hindu temples, especially by Khalistanis, as well as economic crimes such as robberies of jewelry shops. The temperature online as well as in legacy media has also risen, with offensive memes being bandied about. A notable example was the New York Times' cartoon when India did its Mars landing. And you don't get more Democrat-leaning than the New York Times.In summary, while Kamala Harris's presidency may not drastically alter the trajectory of U.S.-India relations established under previous administrations, given a convergence of major geo-political interests, it could introduce significant challenges stemming from her focus on so-called “human rights” and alignment with anti-India factions within her party. These factors could negatively influence economic ties, foreign policy dynamics, counterterrorism efforts, and military collaborations between the two nations. Four more years of tension: revival of terrorist attacks in Kashmir, the chances of CAA-like riots regarding the Waqf issue, economic warfare, a slow genocide of Hindus in Bangladesh. It's enough to make one nostalgic for the Trump era: yes, he talked about tariffs and Harley-Davidson, but he didn't go to war, and he identified China as enemy number one. 2000 words, 23 October 2024 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe

He's a polymath who cares deeply about the world, tries to understand it, and straddles many fields. He's played a key role over the last few decades in India's journey towards development. Ajay Shah joins Amit Varma in episode 402 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about his life and times. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.)   Also check out: 1. Ajay Shah on Twitter and Substack. 2. Everything is Everything -- Ajay Shah's YouTube show with Amit Varma. 3. Life Lessons -- A course taught by Ajay Shah and Amit Varma. 4. In Service of the Republic: The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah. 5. XKDR Forum. 6. The LEAP blog. 7. Previous episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. 8. The Surface Area of Serendipity -- Episode 39 of Everything is Everything.  9. The Economic Lives of the Poor -- Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo. 10. The Universe of Chuck Gopal — Episode 258 of The Seen and the Unseen. 11. The Hiking Episode -- Episode 35 of Everything is Everything. 12. Declutter -- Episode 30 of Everything is Everything. 13. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande — Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 14. Pushpesh Pant Feasts on the Buffet of Life — Episode 326 of The Seen and the Unseen. 15. The Life and Times of Ira Pande -- Episode 369 of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. A Meditation on Form -- Amit Varma. 17. A Passion for Cycling -- Episode 53 of Everything is Everything. 18. Il Lombardia: Tadej Pogačar delivers historical fourth consecutive victory. 19. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. 20. Seven Stories That Should Be Films -- Episode 23 of Everything is Everything (including Ajay's retelling, 'The Fat Frogs of Tatsinskaya'). 21. India's Greatest Civil Servant — Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu, on VP Menon). 22. VP Menon: The Unsung Architect of Modern India — Narayani Basu. 23. Five Epic Stories That Must Be Films -- Episode 29 of Everything is Everything (including Amit's retelling of VP Menon's story). 24. Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945 — Tony Judt. 25. The God That Failed -- Edited by Richard Crossman. 26. One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich -- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. 27. Free to Choose -- Milton Friedman and Rose Friedman. 28. Both Sides Now -- Joni Mitchell. 29. How to Write a Paper -- Episode 62 of Everything is Everything. 30. Jim Corbett on Wikipedia and Amazon. 31. Trek The Sahyadris -- Harish Kapadia. 32. Inflation Targeting Rocks! -- Episode 68 of The Seen and the Unseen. 33. The Heckman Equation. 34. A Deep Dive Into Education -- Episode 54 of Everything is Everything. 35. The Two Cultures -- CP Snow. 36. Shivaji and His Times -- Jadunath Sarkar. 37. Suyash Rai Embraces India's Complexity — Episode 307 of The Seen and the Unseen. 38. Seeing Like a State — James C Scott. 39. The Tyranny of Experts — William Easterly. 40. Are You Just One Version of Yourself? -- Episode 3 of Everything is Everything. 41. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ramachandra Guha: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 42. The Life and Times of KP Krishnan — Episode 355 of The Seen and the Unseen. 43. Our Population Is Our Greatest Asset -- Episode 20 of Everything if Everything. 44. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength -- Amit Varma. 45. Plato (or Why Philosophy Matters) — Episode 109 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rebecca Goldstein). 46. How to Do Development -- Episode 57 of Everything is Everything. 47. Lant Pritchett Is on Team Prosperity — Episode 379 of The Seen and the Unseen. 48. The Life and Times of Chess -- Episode 52 of Everything is Everything. 49. Fixing the Knowledge Society -- Episode 24 of Everything is Everything. 50. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 51. The Reformers -- Episode 28 of Everything is Everything. 52. The Beauty of Finance -- Episode 21 of Everything is Everything. 53. What's Wrong With Indian Agriculture? -- Episode 18 of Everything is Everything. 54. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia — Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 55. The Importance of Finance — Episode 125 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 56. India in Transition: Freeing the Economy -- Jagdish Bhagwati. 57. The UNIX Episode -- Episode 32 of Everything is Everything. 58. Don't Mess With the Price System -- Episode 66 of Everything is Everything. 59. Four Papers That Changed the World -- Episode 41 of Everything is Everything. 60. The Ghost and the Darkness -- Stephen Hopkins. 61. India's Massive Pensions Crisis — Episode 347 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah & Renuka Sane). 62. Understanding India's Pensions Disaster -- Episode 65 of Everything is Everything. 63. What Bruce Springsteen Means to Us -- Episode 13 of Everything is Everything. 64. Distance From Delhi -- The Takshashila Institution. 65. Beyond A Boundary -- CLR James. 66. Letters for a Nation: From Jawaharlal Nehru to His Chief Ministers 1947-1963 -- Jawaharlal Nehru. 67. Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister — Jonathan Lynn and Antony Jay. 68. The Long Road to Change -- Episode 36 of Everything is Everything. 69. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills — Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 70. Government's End: Why Washington Stopped Working -- Jonathan Rauch. 71. Understanding deviations from the fiscal responsibility law in India -- Pratik Datta, Radhika Pandey, Ila Patnaik and Ajay Shah. 72. Who Lends to the Indian State? -- Aneesha Chitgupi, Ajay Shah, Manish Singh, Susan Thomas and Harsh Vardhan. 73. The Percy Mistry report. 74. Bare Acts. 75. Subhashish Bhadra on Our Dysfunctional State — Episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen. 76. Shruti Rajagopalan on our constitutional amendments. 77. The First Assault on Our Constitution — Episode 194 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh). 78. Sixteen Stormy Days — Tripurdaman Singh. 79. Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back — Subhashish Bhadra. 80. Subhashish Bhadra on Our Dysfunctional State — Episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen. 81. The Matrix -- Lana Wachowski & Lilly Wachowski. 82. How Family Firms Evolve -- Episode 34 of Everything is Everything. 83. From Imperial to Adaptive Firms -- Episode 37 of Everything is Everything. 84. Graduating to Globalisation -- Episode 48 of Everything is Everything. 85. Jeff Bezos on The Lex Fridman Podcast. 86. Born to Run -- Bruce Springsteen. 87. Go to the root cause (2007) -- Ajay Shah. 88. Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah Will Not Wear a Blue Tie to Work — Episode 389 of The Seen and the Unseen. 89. Understanding the State -- Episode 25 of Everything is Everything. 90. Every Act of Government Is an Act of Violence -- Amit Varma. 91. When Should the State Act? -- Episode 26 of Everything is Everything. 92. Public Choice Theory Explains SO MUCH -- Episode 33 of Everything is Everything. 93. Public Choice – A Primer -- Eamonn Butler. 94. The Journey of Indian Finance -- Ajay Shah. 95. Amrita Agarwal Wants to Solve Healthcare -- Episode 393 of The Seen and the Unseen. 96. Fortress and Frontier in American Health Care -- Robert Graboyes. 97. We Love Vaccines! We Love Freedom! -- Episode 27 of Everything is Everything. 98. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah). 99. Pranay Kotasthane on Amazon. 100. A blog post is a very long and complex search query to find fascinating people and make them route interesting stuff to your inbox -- Henrik Karlsson. 101. For Whom the Bell Tolls -- Ernest Hemingway. 102. Essays in Persuasion -- John Maynard Keynes. 103. The Ascent Of Man -- Jacob Bronowski. 104. How to Modernise the Working of Courts and Tribunals in India -- Many authors including Ajay Shah. 105. How to Modernise the Working of Courts and Tribunals in India -- Ajay Shah. 106. The lowest hanging fruit on the coconut tree — Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah. 107. Climate Change and Our Power Sector — Episode 278 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshay Jaitley and Ajay Shah). 108. The Brave New Future of Electricity -- Episode 40 of Everything is Everything. 109. False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet -- Bjorn Lomborg. 110. Stay Away From Luxury Beliefs -- Episode 46 of Everything is Everything. 111. Nuclear Power Can Save the World -- Joshua S Goldstein, Staffan A Qvist & Steven Pinker. 112. But Clouds Got In My Way -- Ayush Patnaik, Ajay Shah, Anshul Tayal and Susan Thomas. 113. Everybody Lies — Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. 114. The Truth About Ourselves — Amit Varma. 115. Capitalism and Freedom -- Milton Friedman. 116. Against the Grain -- James C Scott. 117. The Beatles, Dire Straits, Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin and Bruce Springsteen on Spotify. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Dreaming' by Simahina.

On May 26, 2024, 'Likhtan Diyaan Pairha'n' a seminar hosted by Sikh Shahadat in which various speakers Dr. Kawaljit Singh, Bhai Ravinder Singh, Bhai Paramjit Singh Ghazi, Dr. Sikander Singh, Sr. Navjot Singh, Bhai Sukhdeep Singh Mudki, Bhai Mehakdeep Singh attended and presented their speeches and views on the relevant subject. This News/Article How does Kuldeep Nayyar's book benefit the Indian state? appeared first on Sikh Siyasat News.

You know how we both feel about the phrase “oh, stop being so political” for the simple reason that politics IS personal.  Political choices impact most things you do on the daily, and often involve the things you care about the most for your community.   That's why, today, we wanted to speak to someone who may not look like who you think of when you think “politician” - or at least, not until VP Harris stepped even further into the spotlight.    We hope you hear what it takes to be a woman of color running for office, the importance of representation, and why it's important that every single one of us vote in this upcoming election.   What to listen for:  What it's like to run for - and win - office to be a state Senator as a woman of color The importance of electing diverse representation Multiple examples of how every vote counts, in elections she and her friends have run in! About our guest:   Mona Das champions sustainable solutions, racial equity, and women's empowerment. Her lived experience as a daughter of Indian immigrants who came with $6 fuels her passion to dismantle barriers.   A Washington State Senator from 2018-2023, Das achieved victories like the single-use plastics ban by forging coalitions across divides. As a woman of color, she faced roadblocks, giving insights into challenges women leaders face. She is also the first person from the Indian State of Bihar to be elected to state or federal office in the US.   Through keynotes, Das shares strategies for overcoming obstacles, leveraging data/narratives, and translating visions into real-world solutions. Her dynamic presence and storytelling captivate.   An entrepreneur with an MBA in sustainability, and the Executive Producer of Bad Ass Women Doing Kick Ass Shit, an award-winning film about eight BIPOC women running for office in 2022, Das empowers audiences to embrace authenticity, overcome limiting beliefs, and unlock potential. badasswomencommunity.com    Her mission: inspire transformative action towards an equitable world.  

Presenting a paper on suppression of Sikh expression about “Teeja Ghallughara” by the Indian State using ‘digital repression' against the Sikhs Parmjeet Singh, editor of Sikh Siyasat News, cited incidents of content blocking. This News/Article Delhi Darbar's Digital Repression and the Sikhs appeared first on Sikh Siyasat News.

A version of this essay was published by news18.com at https://www.news18.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-beyond-lenient-laws-what-will-it-take-to-protect-indias-women-9023844.htmlAfter this fortnight, it is not hard to see why some are demanding speedy punishment, including automatic death sentences for severe crimes against women. To put it bluntly, the Indian State is letting rapists and murderers get away with their crimes against both grown women, and especially tragically, against little girls. This is a blot on humanity. There needs to be recourse. There has to be a severe deterrent, and men should quake in fear at the prospect of instant, fearsome retribution.The cry of anguish began with the extraordinarily brutal rape (suspected gang-rape) and murder of a 31-year-old doctor (revealed by her mother as Moumita Debnath) in the R G Kar Medical College Hospital in Kolkata on August 9th. As information trickled out, it became clear that she had also been severely tortured before being smothered to death. It is rumored that she had stood up to some important people and this may have been “punishment”.The immediate parallel was with the gruesome rape-murder of Girja Tikkoo in 1990 in Jammu and Kashmir, where she was gang-raped and then sliced alive in two, screaming in mortal pain, on a mechanical saw.There was also, in a hospital setting, the extraordinary case of Aruna Shanbaug, a 25-year-old nurse who was choked with a dog chain and raped by a janitor in a Mumbai hospital in 1973. She was brain-damaged and in a coma for 42 years, cared for by the nurses in the hospital until she died in 2015. Assaults on women staff in hospitals is especially ironic considering a recent finding that patients treated by female doctors have better outcomes possibly because of empathy.Then there was the 2011 case of Sowmya, a 23-year-old shop assistant traveling in an empty women-only coach in a train in Kerala. She was chased around the coach by a one-armed vagrant named Charlie Thomas alias Govindachami, who repeatedly bashed her head against the walls. He then pushed her off the train, raped her and beat her head in with a stone. The lower courts sentenced Charlie to death, but the Supreme Court commuted it to life imprisonment.Not about sexual crime, but about power over womenThis is not about a sexual crime, it is about something more vile and reptilian. It is about sadistically inflicting pain and humiliation, dominating women, exerting power over them. It is extreme misogyny, and is motivated by pure hatred, possibly intent on sending a message. It is also about “putting women in their place”, so that uppity females are “taught a lesson”.The rape-murder of “Nirbhaya”, later revealed by her mother as 22-year old paramedical student Jyoti Singh, in 2012 in Delhi, was similarly traumatic. Four of her assailants were executed after seven years, and one killed himself in jail, but the worst offender, who instigated the ramming of an iron rod into her genitals, was let go in 2015 on the flimsy reason that he was allegedly a juvenile. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal presented a sewing machine to the offender upon his release. There was also the 2016 case of Jisha, a 30-year-old law student in Kerala who was subjected to extreme violence, including disembowelment in her rape-murder. A migrant laborer was charged with the crime, and sentenced to death, which was upheld in May 2024 by the Kerala High Court. However, it is rumored that Jisha was the illegitimate daughter of a local bigwig, and that she was “punished” for demanding a share in his property. In Kerala again, there were the Walayar sisters, a 13 year old and a 9 year old, who were found hanging, two months apart, in 2017. The initial conclusion was ‘suicide', but after an uproar when postmortems confirmed sexual assault, the case was reopened. Several politically connected people were involved, whom the POCSO court acquitted. But the Kerala High Court ordered a retrial of the five accused, including a juvenile, and the case is with the CBI as of now. Every sinner has a future, maybe, but he denied his dead victim her futureThere was the startling “every sinner has a future” Supreme Court verdict of 2022 that commuted the death sentence of a rapist-murderer of a four-year-old child into imprisonment for 20 years. The court also held that this was not a “rarest of the rare” case. Using this “every sinner has a future” precedent, the Orissa High Court in May 2024 also commuted the sentence of a rapist-murderer of a six-year-old child. He had been on death row, but they commuted it to “life imprisonment”.  In India, “life imprisonment” usually means the convict will walk after 14 years, so that is the total sentence the murderer will serve in practice.On August 20th came another shocker. After 32 years, a POCSO court has convicted six men in Ajmer of raping/molesting, photographing and blackmailing over a hundred minor girls. It took 32 years for what should have been an open-and-shut case. The assailants are said to have political connections with a particular party. Also on August 20th, the Justice Hema Commission published its report on the plight of women in the Malayalam film industry. It alleges that sexual exploitation including the ‘casting couch' is rife, discrimination such as the lack of even basic amenities like toilets on sets is common, and that a ‘criminal gang' of senior actors, producers, and directors perpetuates a cycle of abuse. Soft on crimes against women and girlsAll this signals that the Indian State, especially the Judiciary, is soft on horrific crimes against women and girls. This cannot continue in a civilized nation. One possible outcome is that the Executive and the Judiciary will take cognizance of these lapses, and provide severe deterrence, which can only come with fast-tracking of these cases, and enforcing capital punishment, instead of vague homilies quoting Oscar Wilde.Another possibility is vigilante justice. There was the 1974 film Death Wish about an unassuming architect in New York who takes the law into his own hands after his wife is murdered and his daughter raped by violent criminals. He stalks muggers and criminals. Ordinary citizens may be tempted to do the same in India. The third thing is to drum it into males from a young age, especially in school, that they have to respect women as human beings, not see them as sexual prey. Repeated insistence on that message will get through to them.  Furthermore, there is every reason to try juveniles committing heinous crimes (such as rape and murder) as adults. The existing Juvenile Justice Act is sufficient for this; it may well be that prosecutors are not using the law to its full extent. Prosecutorial incompetence was alleged in the Sowmya case as well, along with the involvement of shadowy benefactors for the murderer. Copycat crimes, in particular against babies and toddlers, are becoming more frequent. In November 2023, a two-and-a-half-year-old girl was raped by a 17-year-old boy in Buldhana, Maharashtra. In August 2024, a Class 9 student was detained for allegedly raping a three-year-old girl in Mumbai.This sort of thing simply cannot continue. It is not the case that India is particularly prone to sexual crimes against women: the number of reported rapes is not high compared to other countries, but for a nation that calls itself the Motherland and worships many female deities, the cavalier treatment of crimes against women is a disgrace, and must be stopped.1100 words, 20th August 2024, updated 21st August This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com

On 17th June 2023 at Gurdwara Damdma Sahib, Sri Hargobindpur, in the holy memory of all martyrs of "Ghallughara June 84", a martyrdom ceremony was marked with the support of Gurdwara management committee and local Sangat. This News/Article The 1984 Ghallughara: Indian State's Motives, Sikh Resilience, and the Current Scenario appeared first on Sikh Siyasat News.

On June 17, 2024, at the Gurmat Samagam held at Rail Coach Factory Kapurthala, where Bhai Mandhir Singh delivered a poignant speech commemorating Teeja Ghallughara. He eloquently shared historical insights into Indira Gandhi and Indian State's approach towards the Sikhs, and the events of June 1984. This News/Article Indira Gandhi, India, Sant Bhindranwale, the Sikhs and June 1984: All You Need to Know appeared first on Sikh Siyasat News.

Today my guest is Karthik Muralidharan. He is the Tata Chancellor's Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego. He is the author of the recent book Accelerating India's Development: A State-Led Roadmap for Effective Governance.” We talked about the lacking state capacity in India, about improving the quality of public expenditure, fiscal federalism, methods to improve the hiring process for government, better ways of staffing and using the Indian bureaucracy, randomized control trials and development and much more.  Recorded May 15th, 2024. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links. Connect with Ideas of India Follow us on X Follow Shruti on X Follow Karthik on X Click here for the latest Ideas of India episodes sent straight to your inbox. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Intro (00:07:46) - Quality of Public Education (00:17:59) - Decentralization vs. Federalism (00:31:58) - Welfare Expenditure (00:41:30) - Personnel for the Indian State (01:09:08) - Better Approach for Skilling (01:17:26) - Empanelment (01:34:32) - The Backdrop of the Field of Economics (01:56:52) - Outro

Hannah Ellis-Petersen reports from Uttarakhand, which offers a glimpse into what the future might look like if the BJP retains its power in national elections. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

Karthik Venkatesh, in his book, 10 Indian Languages and How They Came to Be, traces the long and varied journeys of ten languages through time, examining the cultural shifts and political and social influences that have shaped them. He provides a glimpse of their literature, tracks the growth of their scripts and identifies landmark moments that have preserved and reinvented these ten Indian languages. Venkataraghavan Subha Srinivasan, in his book, The Origin Story of India's States, gives us an account of the genesis of India's states, presenting the incredible origin stories of each of India's twenty-eight states and eight union territories, spanning from Independence until today. The authors come together in this session to delve into the historical, cultural, and political dimensions of both subjects, to compare and contrast their development and to share with us their process in putting together books that are accessible and of historical import. In this episode of BIC Talks, Author & Executive Editor of Penguin Random House India - Karthik Venkatesh is in conversation with the Writer, Actor & Director - Venkataraghavan Subha Srinivasan. This is an excerpt from a conversation that took place in the BIC premises in May 2024. Subscribe to the BIC Talks Podcast on your favorite podcast app! BIC Talks is available everywhere, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Castbox, Overcast, Audible and Amazon Music.

Harinder Singh, Senior Fellow in Research and Policy at the Sikh Research Institute, speaks with Sukhman Singh, Co-Founder and Director of Ensaaf, delving into the occurrence, extent, and aftermath of the Sikh Genocide. Their dialogue seeks to illuminate the organized violence orchestrated by the Indian State against the Sikh community, resulting in numerous disappearances and extrajudicial killings. Ensaaf, a human rights organization, has meticulously documented close to 20,000 such instances, underscoring the widespread scale of the atrocities perpetrated. Featuring: Harinder Singh (https://sikhri.org/people/harinder-singh) Sukhman Singh Watch the discussion at: https://youtu.be/KjLZpLh3qGg #SikhHistory #Sikhism #SikhCommunity #Sikh --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/the-sikh-cast-sikhri/support

Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes will be without one of their top linebackers in the 2024 college football season. Who will step up with Damuni, set to miss time this fall? Utah Men's Basketball fell to Indian State in the NIT semifinals. What's next for Utah Basketball? On today's episode of Locked On Utes, JT Wistrcill and Andrew Crowley of the Runnin' Hoops Podcast look at how Utah Football and Basketball will adjust moving forward. Follow the show: @LockedOnUtes Follow JT: @Jtwistrcill Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…

A few weeks ago, the Indian government formally notified the rules implementing the controversial 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act, or CAA. The law provides persecuted religious minorities hailing from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan an expedited pathway to Indian citizenship, provided they belong to the Buddhist, Christian, Hindu, Jain, Parsi, or Sikh communities. Notably, the law does not provide such a pathway to those who belong to the Muslim faith.The notification of the CAA rules—on the eve of India's 2024 general election—has kicked off a fresh debate over the law, its implementing provisions, and the resulting implications for the future of secularism in India.To discuss all of this and more, Milan is joined on the show this week by legal scholar M. Mohsin Alam Bhat. Mohsin is a Lecturer in Law at Queen Mary University of London, where he specializes in constitutional law and human rights. Mohsin has written extensively about law and citizenship in India.Milan and Mohsin discuss the origins of the CAA, its constitutionality, and the fine print of the CAA rules. Plus, the two discuss the situation in Assam, that state's National Register of Citizens (NRC), and the prospects of an all-India NRC exercise.Episode notes:1. “What's Happening to India's Rohingya Refugees? (with Priyali Sur and Daniel Sullivan),” Grand Tamasha, May 24, 2023.2. Mohsin Alam Bhat and Aashish Yadav, “CAA will not help persecuted Hindus, Sikhs from neighbouring countries,” Indian Express, March 19, 2024.3. “The Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2019,” PRS Legislative Research.4. Madhav Khosla and Milan Vaishnav, “The Three Faces of the Indian State,” Journal of Democracy 32, no. 1 (2021): 111-125.5. Mohsin Alam Bhat, “The Constitutional Case Against the Citizenship Amendment Bill,” Economic and Political Weekly 54, no.3 (2019): 12-14.6. Mohsin Alam Bhat, “‘The Irregular' and the Unmaking of Minority Citizenship: The Rules of Law in Majoritarian India,” Queen Mary Law Research Paper No. 395/2022.7. Niraja Gopal Jayal, “Faith-based Citizenship,” The India Forum, October 31, 2019. 

Lant Pritchett has described India as "flailing state", one where the limbs are not in sync with the head and the outcomes sought are not delivered. Sridhar Krishna talks to Bharat Reddy on how AI can be used to bridge the gap in state capacity and help Indians get the goods and services they desire from the government. Readings: Why does the Indian state both fail and succeed? By Devesh Kapur Is India a flailing state? By Lant Pritchett Breaking the Mould by Raghuraman Rajan and Rohit Lamba Do check out Takshashila's public policy courses: https://school.takshashila.org.in/courses We are @‌IVMPodcasts on Facebook, Twitter, & Instagram. https://twitter.com/IVMPodcasts https://www.instagram.com/ivmpodcasts/?hl=en https://www.facebook.com/ivmpodcasts/ You can check out our website at https://shows.ivmpodcasts.com/featured Follow the show across platforms: Spotify, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, JioSaavn, Gaana, Amazon Music Do share the word with your folks    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pranay Kotasthane, Co-author of "Missing in Action," and Devashish Dhar, Author of "India's Blind Spot," come together for a unique duet in the realm of policy. Drawing inspiration from the classical music approach of jugalbandi that allows artists to showcase their mastery of instruments, Pranay and Devashish leverage their experiences at Takshashila Institution and NITI Aayog, respectively, to weave a harmonious narrative on public policymaking. Having both spent time at the Takshashila Institution, they bring a rich understanding of the intricate world of policy. As they collaborate and build upon each other's work, this policy jugalbandi aims to unravel the complexities of policymaking for our audience. In this episode of BIC Talks, our speakers, Pranay Kotasthane and Devashish Dhar, delve into the core of public policy, offering fresh insights and perspectives. Pranay, with his co-authorship on "Missing in Action," challenges the prevalent perceptions about the Indian State, urging us to reflect on its workings. Meanwhile, Devashish, the author of "India's Blind Spot," sheds light on the challenges and opportunities that define India's experiment with urbanization, emphasizing how cities have become the country's blind spot. In this exploration of policy, our participants dissect fundamental concepts and propose innovative solutions to the complex issues. This episode was adapted from a live event at the BIC premises. Subscribe to the BIC Talks Podcast on your favourite podcast app! BIC Talks is available everywhere, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Castbox, Overcast, Audible and Amazon Music.  

Today Fabio talks to Deepa Das Acevedo (Emory University Law School), Mohsin A. Bhat (Queen Mary University of London School of Law), and Mayur Suresh (SOAS School of Law).  The conversation hinges mostly around the piece the guests wrote to the PAL project, titled “Authoritarianism in Indian State, Law, and Society" and published in 2022 in the World Comparative Law journal. In that piece, the guests argue that political change in India under Modi and the BJP does involve a degree of “autocratic legalism”, according to the conception that we began working with on this podcast and in the PAL project. To concentrate power and govern without constraints, Modi and the BJP do make use of incremental and malicious changes in constitutional and statutory law. But that alone is insufficient to fully characterize the Modi moment and its relationship with law. This moment, they argue, is further based on an ideology (Hindu nationalism) that combines ethnic and religious components and is backed up by mass mobilization. In the interview, the guests unpack this argument and debate how it adds to the framework of studies on autocratic legalism, which up to this point, both the host and the guests agree, had been too focused on the state and power concentration in the hands of a single individual (the autocrat), overlooking the connections between the state and society and the broader social or economic hierarchies that current authoritarian leaders have also helped entrench.  Fabio and his guests also discuss the methodological premises of their work (the orientation they share toward “law as it is lived on the ground”), which has enabled them to spot these specific dimensions of the phenomenon we have been trying to better understand in our project. And they finish with discussions about the prospects for resistance to Modi and the BJP and attempted predictions about how the story of Indian democracy may unfold. Link to the VRÜ/World Comparative Law special issue: https://www.nomos-elibrary.de/10.5771/0506-7286-2022-4/vrue-verfassung-und-recht-in-uebersee-jahrgang-55-2022-heft-4?page=1  

Nurses wearing hazmat suits, schools and stores closed and towns under lockdown: this familiar scenario has just played out again in the state of Kerala, in southern India. The cause is not a new wave of Covid, but the Nipah virus: the third such outbreak to hit the state in five years. In 2018, 17 people died out of 18 who were infected. Despite this high mortality rate, with each epidemic – Nipah, Zika or Covid – the state of Kerala is held up as an example for its handling of zoonic virus outbreaks. So what is this "Kerala model" based on? Our correspondent reports.

(Ep. 164) 17th TPiE Indian State Advocacy_In Conversation with Tibet TV

The current episode is the second of this new season. We will continue to look at the issue of financing, which was the topic of the first episode of the system's mapping series. We will talk about a very important theme: how to finance the inclusion of gig workers from digital platforms of service provisions in social protection system. We turn our attention to the Indian State of Rajasthan, where the local legislative has just passed a law creating the Rajasthan Platform-Based Gig Workers Welfare Board. In order to understand what the Welfare Board is, what is their role in financing informal workers' social protection, how will it work and the challenges and potential ahead I invited Nikhil Dey. Nikhil is a social activist in India for the empowerment of peasants and workers, and is a founder member of the MKSS, a membership-based organization that fights for the right to information and to advocate for a national work guarantee law in India. *Our theme music is Focus from AA Aalto (Creative Commons) References: The Wire: "Gig Workers' First Major Victory in India: Rajasthan Leads the Way" https://thewire.in/labour/gig-workers-first-major-victory-in-india-rajasthan-leads-the-way WIEGO Resource Document No. 37: "I Will Not Auction My Back! Lessons from Maharashtra's Welfare Boards in Financing Social Protection for Informal Workers" https://www.wiego.org/sites/default/files/publications/file/wiego-resource-document-no.37.pdf

He was a physician, and then an IAS officer, and then a universally-respected politician. Jayaprakash Narayan joins Amit Varma in episode 334 of The Seen and the Unseen to describe his lifelong quest to complete our task of nation-building. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. A Life in Indian Politics — Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 2. The State of Indian Politics — Episode 50 of The Seen and the Unseen (w JP Narayan). 3. The Myth of Sisyphus (Amazon) (Wikipedia) -- Albert Camus. 4. Factfulness — Hans Rosling. 5. The best stats you've ever seen — Hans Rosling. 6. What's Consolation For An Atheist? (2008) -- Amit Varma. 7. Barun Mitra, Philosopher and Practitioner -- Episode 264 of The Seen and the Unseen. 8. Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back — Subhashish Bhadra. 9. Subhashish Bhadra on Our Dysfunctional State -- Episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen. 10. India's Greatest Civil Servant — Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu, on VP Menon). 11. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State — Amit Varma. 12. Rajesh Jain and Dhan Vapasi -- Episode 94 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. Team of Rivals — Doris Kearns Goodwin. 14. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills — Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 15, The Indian State Is the Greatest Enemy of the Indian Farmer -- Amit Varma. 16. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 17. Education in India — Episode 77 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Amit Chandra). 18. Understanding Indian Healthcare — Episode 225 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 19. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 20. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao — Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 21. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia — Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 22. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 23. Narendra Modi takes a Great Leap Backwards — Amit Varma. 24. The Double ‘Thank-You' Moment — John Stossel. 25. Whatever happened To Ehsan Jafri on February 28, 2002? — Harsh Mander. 26. Metrics of Empowerment — Episode 88 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Devika Kher, Nidhi Gupta & Hamsini Hariharan). 27. We Should Celebrate Rising Divorce Rates (2008) — Amit Varma. 28. South India Would Like to Have a Word — Episode 320 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nilakantan RS). 29. Animal Farm -- George Orwell. 30. Guns, Germs And Steel -- Jared Diamond. 31. Yuval Noah Harari on Amazon. 32. The Economic Government of the World: 1933-2023 -- Martin Daunton. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Build' by Simahina.

Listen to the latest SBS Hindi news from India. 16/06/2023

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-crown-sceptre-and-the-saga-of-dharmapuri-12647632.htmlIn Malayalam, the terms are “kireedom and chenkol”, that is, crown and scepter, signifying the powerful symbols of the State. He or she who holds these is deemed to be the ruler, ruling with the full authority of the office, and the full approval of the subjects. The words chenkol in Malayalam and ‘sengol' in Tamil are cognate, eg. Chenkotta (red fort) in Malayalam is Sengottai in Tamil.The scepter is an important marker of kingship, so much so that during imperial times, Britain was referred to as the ‘sceptr'd isle', that is, the unquestioned ruler of its far flung empire. There is of course the third symbol, the throne, or ‘simhasanam'. During the recent investiture of the British king, I am sure all three of these were on full display. For some reason, the throne seems less important in Indian lore than the other two, but in a wicked pun, the great fabulist O V Vijayan in his savage satire “The Saga of Dharmapuri” equated the throne with a European toilet, as in a slang American expression for the erstwhile ‘thunder box'.The Chola ‘sengol' from Tamil Nadu was a sacred symbol included in a “vesting ceremony accompanied by a recital of 11 verses from the Thevaram text invoking the blessings of Shiva for the ruler” in 1947, according to S Gurumurthy in “How the Sengol embodied India's freedom and why it was forgotten and lost” on republicworld.com. Not only was the sengol forgotten, the Cholas, and their great maritime empire that extended all the way to Indonesia, were erased.In fact, all of South Indian history, including the fabled Vijayanagar Empire, the samurai-like kalaripayat warriors of the west coast and Tulunadu, Telugu patriots like Alluri Sitarama Raju, Travancore's Marthanda Varma who defeated the Dutch at Colachel in 1749, and Travancore's Chempakaraman Pillai of the INA who coined the term ‘Jai Hind', was wiped out from the pages of textbooks. In their place, a weird pabulum of make-believe was installed. The sacred ‘sengol' denoting “virtuous and ethical rule” per Gurumurthy was deemed to be a personal gift, a gold walking stick given to Jawaharlal Nehru, which once again shows how a personality cult was relentlessly built up that would make Mao and Kim Il Sung green with envy. “L'etat, c'est moi” (The State, it is I), said Louis XIV, the Sun King of France. Well, we know what happened to his descendants: the guillotine. Indians, being more gentle, have not quite done the same thing. Or at least done so only metaphorically. Which reminds me, why is/was Nehru called ‘Pandit Nehru'? Who certified him? What was he a pundit in? Did he pass some pundit exam? Ah, it was just part of the personality cult. I don't see other Kashmiri Hindus going around calling themselves Pandit: they use their family names, so what's special about these people?Oh well, I guess I answered my own question. According to the cult, Nehrus were the hereditary rulers of India, and so it was only natural that the kingship would pass from the British to Nehru. There is only one slight problem. Again according to O V Vijayan in The Path of the Prophet, the Nehrus were not hereditary feudal lords, but ferrymen on the river Neher, “they who came from somewhere”, and had taken the name of the river as their surname. Jawaharlal's grandfather Ganga Dhar was a kotwal in a Delhi police station. A Ghosh had some more startling information about this man, who was photographed in a full Pathan outfit, but I shall let that pass. I made an attempt at deconstructing the Nehru myth in my 1999 Rediff.com essay Let us now praise famous men wherein I quote at length the relevant passage from Vijayan. In my considered opinion, Nehru was an almost unmitigated disaster for India: he thought India was his personal fiefdom, and he was entitled to dispense imperial largesse. He gave away all sorts of things (that didn't belong to him in the first place):* Treaty rights in Tibet inherited from the British given away in exchange for nothing* The right of independent Tibet to exist was erased, as he colluded with Chinese road-building on the Indo-Tibetan border: Chinese troops were fed with Indian rice!* Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir given away by taking the issue to the hostile UN instead of allowing the Indian Army to cleanse the area of invading Pakistani tribals* UN Security Council seat, offered by both the US and Russia (yes, I can quote chapter and verse on this from Nehru's collected writings), given away to China* Coco Islands given away to Burma, which is now allowing China to build a naval base thereIn addition, Nehru, in his own words in this video, thought that throughout history South India was a separate country. I get it, he must have taken his pundit exam along with Romila Thapar in ancient Indian history!There is good reason to think of Jawaharlal Nehru as not quite getting the full picture (Chou En Lai allegedly referred to him, rather rudely, as a ‘useful idiot'). Then what does that make his acolytes? That was the question Vijayan asked in “Dharmapuri”, which opens with the dramatic statement: “Prajapati wanted to s**t”, in crude Malayalam. “It was a little off the usual time that day, so the assembled dignitaries were a little disturbed when the Army Chief blew the conch signifying that the event was at hand. It was only the late afternoon. Normally Prajapati did his thing at dawn and dusk, to the accompaniment of Dharmapuri's national song.” [See the photograph of Page 1 of the book in Malayalam]Prajapati is seated on his ‘throne', a toilet. That was important, because whatever Prajapati expelled into the toilet was eagerly consumed by his courtiers. This Brechtian tale is hard to read: it invokes bibhatsa in the reader, creating both alienation and catharsis. Here's a relevant bit: “Whoever became anybody in the kingdom, in industry, or in politics, had done so by regularly eating Prajapati's s**t. Mothers would pray that their children would have an opportunity to consume those perfumed feces”. That's a gross way of putting it, but there's an element of truth: the Dynasty demanded utter loyalty. Meanwhile, India's economy kept declining steadily in comparison to the rest of the world, until there was a bit of a turnaround in 1991, and accelerating growth in the 2010s. After all these years of living dangerously, India is now inching ahead. With economic growth, it is normal to think of tradition, culture and heritage. It is only fitting, then, that the Prime Minister took part it an investiture ceremony, with several Tamil Nadu matha-adhipathis in attendance. With native Tamil and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman taking a visible role, the government has declared its intent to nip any sub-nationalism (the US ambassador's obsession) in the bud. It is an emphatic re-assertion of pan-Indian nationalism, necessary in these times of increasingly complex geopolitics. It is time to decisively throw off the shibboleths of the immediate post-independence period. The Chola-style sengol is being restored to its rightful place as a symbol of the resurgent Indian State, as it was intended to be in the first place, not, absurdly, some guy's walking stick. Errata: It was pointed out by Professor Subhash Kak that Vijayalakshmi Pandit was married to a man with the surname Pandit. The error is regretted. 1117 words, 25 May 2023, 1137 words, updated 27 May 2023, 1214 words, updated 28 May 2023 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com

Global Policy Watch: Much Ado About De-dollarisationReflections on global policy issues— RSJThis week, Donald Trump urged Republican lawmakers to let the U.S. default on its debt if the Democrats don't agree on massive budget cuts. Trump likened the people running the U.S. treasury to ‘drunken sailors', an epithet I can get behind. Default is not something Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, can even begin to imagine. As CNBC reported, Yellen chose strong words to express her views if the debt ceiling was not raised by the House:“The notion of defaulting on our debt is something that would so badly undermine the U.S. and global economy that I think it should be regarded by everyone as unthinkable,” she told reporters. “America should never default.”When asked about steps the Biden administration could take in the wake of a default, Yellen emphasized that lawmakers must raise the debt ceiling.“There is no good alternative that will save us from catastrophe. I don't want to get into ranking which bad alternative is better than others, but the only reasonable thing is to raise the debt ceiling and to avoid the dreadful consequences that will come,” she told reporters, noting that defaulting on debt can be prevented.There is more than a grain of truth there in some of her apparent hyperbole. The U.S. hegemony in the global financial system runs on trust that they won't default on their debt. Take that trust out of the equation, and what have you got left? This is somewhat more salient in these times when there's a talk of de-dollarisation going around. Russia and China have been keen to trade in their own currencies between themselves and other partners who are amenable to this idea. And they have found some traction in this idea from other countries who aren't exactly bit players in the global economy. In March this year, the yuan overtook the dollar in being the predominant currency used for cross-border transactions in China. Here's a quick run-through of what different countries have been doing to reduce their dollar dependence. Russia and Saudi Arabia are using yuan to settle payments for gas and oil trade. Russia offloaded a lot of US dollars in its foreign reserves before the start of the war and replaced it with gold and yuan. It will possibly continue building yuan reserves in future. Brazil is already doing trade settlements in yuan and is also using the CIPS (China's response to US-dominated SWIFT) for international financial messaging services. Argentina and Thailand seem to be also doing more of their trade with China in yuan. And I'm not including the likes of Pakistan, Bangladesh and other smaller economies that have politically or economically tied themselves up with China and are following suit. And a few weeks back, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, also raised the issue of strategic autonomy of the EU after his visit to Beijing. As Politico reported:Macron also argued that Europe had increased its dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy and must now focus on boosting European defense industries. He also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar,” a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing. “If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won't have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals,” he said.You get the picture. This idea of de-dollarisation seems to be gaining traction. How real is this possibility? There are possibly three lenses to look at this issue, and we will cover them in this edition.Why the recent hate for the dollar?A useful area to start with is to understand where this desire to find alternatives to the dollar is emerging. I mean, it is obvious why Russia and China are doing it and the way the U.S. used its dominance over the financial system to shut out Russia. Companies were barred from trading with Russia, Russian banks couldn't access SWIFT and networks like Visa and Mastercard stopped their operations. Russia got the message but so did other large economies that didn't think of themselves firmly in the U.S. camp. ‘What if' questions began circulating among policymakers there. What if, in future, a somewhat unpredictable U.S. president decides to do this to us? And once you start building these scenarios, you soon realise the extent of dependence the global financial system has on not just the dollar but, beyond it, to the infrastructure and rules of the game developed by the U.S. corporations. There's been a measured retreat ever since. In India, a visible example of this has been the push toward Rupay by the regulator and the government in lieu of Visa and Mastercard. But merely looking at the U.S. response to Russia as the reason would be missing the longer-term trend. In his book ‘Bucking the Buck', Daniel McDowell shows data on the annual number of executive orders that instruct the US Treasury to enforce financial sanctions against specially designated nationals (SDNs). These were rarities in the 70s. By the early 2000s, such annual orders were in their low twenties and in the last few years, they have reached the three-figure mark. It is clear that the U.S. is using its enormous clout as the owner of the global reserve currency and financial infrastructure to punish those who fall out of line. This is war by other means. Interestingly, this ‘sanctions happy' behaviour in the last decade coincided with a wave of populist leaders coming into power in many countries who would not like to be seen as weak or held to ransom by the U.S. This has meant these states have used strategic autonomy as a plank to pursue their interests to go around the U.S. built system. I don't see this trend abating any time soon. The future U.S. administrations will continue to use financial coercion as a tool because it appears bloodless, and the larger economies will continue freeing themselves from this hegemony one system at a time. The tough and fortuitous road to becoming a reserve currencyBut does that mean we will eventually end up with de-dollarisation? Well, there are two things to appreciate here. How does a currency become a reserve currency? How did the dollar become one? And once it does, what keeps it there? If you go back a little over a hundred years, most countries in the world pegged their currencies to gold as a means of facilitating cross-border trade and stabilising currencies. But during World War 1, it became difficult for these countries to fund their war expenses without printing paper money and devaluing their currencies. Britain continued adhering to the gold standard, but it was difficult for it to sustain its war efforts too. It had to borrow to run its expenses during and after WWI. Between the two wars, the U.S. became a huge exporter of goods and armament to the rest of the world, and it took the payment in gold. By the time World War 2 was ending, the U.S. had hoarded most of the world's gold, which made going back to the gold standard impossible because other countries just didn't have any gold. When the allied nations met at Bretton Woods to discuss the new financial world order after the war, it became quite clear that the only real option of managing a foreign exchange system was one that would have all other currencies pegged to the dollar, which would then be linked to gold. It is important to understand that there was no specific effort made to replace Pound as the international reserve currency. It just became inevitable, given the mix of circumstances. Around the same time and for a decade after, the U.S. led the post-war reconstruction efforts in Western Europe and Japan, which gave it a political clout that was unmatched. This political dominance, along with the remnants of the Bretton Woods agreement, is what runs the global currency system in our times, though, in the 70s, the U.S. delinked the dollar from gold as well. That led to the floating exchange rates system that exists today and the dollarisation of the global economy. Over time countries learnt to accumulate their foreign exchange reserves in dollars by buying U.S. treasury bills. Together with the IMF and WB and the associated ecosystem that got built around the U.S. dollar, it became the force that it is today. Now for any currency to replace the U.S. dollar, it has to have the happy coincidence of being a dominant political and economic force, a lack of alternatives for the countries and an alternative to Bretton Wood (or a modification of the same) which can replace the current system. It is very difficult to imagine how something like this can happen unless there is a global crisis of a magnitude where a rebaselining of everything becomes the only way ahead. That brings us to the other point on what sustains the dollar as a reserve currency. There are multiple factors at play here. There are, of course, the network effects of the dollar being deeply embedded in so many commercial ecosystems that taking it out is rife with friction and pain. Also, the dollar is fully convertible, which makes it convenient for others to use it as a store of value. It has remained stable; its market is deep and liquid, enabling easy conversion of bonds to cash and vice versa; there exists a mature insurance market to cover currency risks and above all, we have an implicit guarantee that the U.S. will not default on its debt. This is a trust that has been built over the last eight decades because the world believes the U.S. will run a rule-based order with a strong legal framework to ensure no single person can override rules or conventions. Yawn when you hear Yuan as the next reserve currency So, how does one see the efforts of China or Russia to wean themselves away from this dollar-dominated system? Will the yuan be able to replace the dollar ever? Apart from the points mentioned above, which led to the dollar being in a unique place in the world in the post-war days and which won't repeat itself any time soon, there are other fundamental issues with the idea of the yuan as a reserve currency. To begin with, it isn't convertible, and China runs a ‘closed' capital account system. It is difficult to move money in and out of the country freely. You will need approvals. The opaque legal system, the authoritarian one-party (one-man) rule and the lack of depth in the yuan market mean it is impossible to imagine any prudent central bank risking its entire foreign exchange reserve in yuan. China could turn into an economic giant by exploiting a global trade order without adhering to its associated political expectations. But to think it could do the same in currency exchange order is a pipe dream. Even the numbers of the recent past bear this out. For all the talk of de-dollarisation, there has been a net sell-off of Chinese government bonds by private players in the last year. No one wants to sit on Chinese bonds if things go south in the global political economy. The central banks around the world who have wanted to diversify away from the dollar in their foreign exchange reserve don't seem to have walked their talk. Even they have been net sellers of Chinese government bonds barring the initial days of the Ukraine war. Lastly, China is still struggling to raise consumption in its economy because, with a closed capital account and surplus capacity, it doesn't know what to do with the surplus yuan. Without consumption going up, it will make things worse if it starts becoming a reserved or a semi-reserve currency for the world. The probability of de-dollarisation seems to be hugely exaggerated at this moment. The alternatives are worse, and for those who complain about the coercive nature of U.S. diplomacy because of their financial clout, wait till you have China with that power. You can check with Sri Lanka for how it feels to be under China's thumb economically. Also, none of the hype around bitcoin, stablecoin or CBDC is ever going to materialise for them to replace the dollar. The recent events have shown the fairly flimsy ground on which the bitcoin exchanges (banks?) run. It is difficult to see the lack of trust to change in a hurry. But this also doesn't mean the trend towards diversification of central banks' reserves will buck soon. The gradual move towards reducing dependence on the dollar and its associated ecosystem will continue. Should the U.S. be worried about this? It shouldn't, really. It draws enormous privilege for being the reserve currency of the world. It makes its job to borrow or access money very easy. And the fact that it is a safe haven means it benefits from every crisis. But it should also be clear that this privilege has hurt its ability to export because the dollar remains stronger than it should. This, in turn, has led to the financialisation of the U.S. economy, with the rich getting richer and an evisceration of the U.S. manufacturing capabilities. Reserve diversification won't be such a bad thing for them. But that might mean a reduction of a few hundred basis points in what central banks hold globally in U.S. treasuries. That won't de-dollarise the world. For that to happen, something catastrophic will need to happen. Maybe that's why Yellen used that word about the possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its debt. That's the kind of self-goal they must avoid.  Matsyanyaaya: The Two Equilibria in India-US RelationsBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneThere has been a healthy debate over the last couple of weeks on the state of the India-US relationship. In a Foreign Affairs article, Ashley Tellis, a key figure in the 2005 civil nuclear deal, a well-known realist scholar, and a strong proponent of stronger India-US relations, cast some doubt on the burgeoning partnership. The article, provocatively titled ‘America's bad bet on India', concludes thus: The United States should certainly help India to the degree compatible with American interests. But it should harbor no illusions that its support, no matter how generous, will entice India to join it in any military coalition against China. The relationship with India is fundamentally unlike those that the United States enjoys with its allies. The Biden administration should recognize this reality rather than try to alter it.Tellis reasons that India wants a closer relationship with the US to increase its own national power, not to preserve the liberal international order or to collaborate on mutual defence against China. He further argues that the US ‘generosity' towards India is unlikely to help achieve its strategic aim of securing meaningful military contributions from India to defeat any Chinese aggression in East Asia or the South China Sea. As you would imagine, this article put the cat amongst the pigeons. However, I agree with the fundamental argument. Expectation setting is important, and it is true that India is unlikely to behave like a weaker ally; the US-India relationship will most certainly have some shades that the US-China relationship had between 1980 and 2005. In what seems to be a rejoinder to this article, Ashok Malik—previously a policy advisor in the external affairs ministry—argues that fixating on India's role in a hypothetical war on Taiwan is a wrong question to ask, an imagined roadblock that even the Biden administration isn't overly concerned about. Instead, Malik lists the growing relationship in several domains to conclude that the two administrations are far more sanguine, having figured out an approach to work with each other despite key differences. I agree with this view as well. There's no doubt that the India-US relationship has grown across sectors despite fundamental differences during an ongoing war in Europe. It is easy to. observe the shift in India-US conversations at the policy execution levels. The talks are no longer about the whys but about the hows. Gone are the days when the India-US partnership conversations began with Pakistan and ended with Russia, with the two sides taking potshots at each other in between. The conversations are about debating realistic projects that India and the US could accomplish together in areas such as space, biotechnology, semiconductors, and defence. How, then, can I agree with two seemingly opposing views? Because they aren't mutually exclusive. The India-US relationship is so far behind the production possibility frontier on technology, trade and defence that there are enough low-hanging fruits to pick. And that's exactly what we are seeing now. But if the US president were to change, or if there were to be an escalation around Taiwan, the India-US relationship would likely hit a ceiling that Tellis warns about. In edition #165, I proposed a tri-axis framework to look at the India-US relationship: state-to-state relations, state-to-people relations, and people-to-people relations. There has never been a problem on the people-to-people axis. Like Mr Malik, I, too, think that state-to-state relations have turned a corner. However, it is the state-to-people axis which is the problematic axis. Many Indians still seem to harbour a deep frustration with the American State. On the other hand, many Americans also have doubts about the Indian State as a strategic actor. Finally, it's only the two administrations that can break this ceiling. The trade-offs aren't easy, but they are real. Without the Indian government committing itself to do more to counter the Chinese military threat in the seas, the US is unlikely to transfer cutting-edge technologies. Likewise, unless the US quits its stubbornness to give more Indian products preferential access to its markets or delivers on the asymmetric promises under the technology and defence agreements, India is unlikely to revise its stance. In other words, the stage is set for the Indian PM's official state visit to the US next month. India Policy Watch #1: Generalists vs General EquilibriumInsights on issues relevant to India— Pranay KotasthaneNon-civil services folks who have worked in governments are almost always extremely insightful. Perhaps, their experience working with the bureaucracy gives them a filter to reject impractical ideas, while their breadth of knowledge allows them to take a long-term view of policy ideas. These "scholar-warriors" are often able to get to the root of issues.One such person is Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who was a guest on this week's Ideas of India podcast. Among the many insights he delivers, one that switched a lightbulb on for me was the segment on "generalists vs specialists" in government. While this is an old debate, one that civil service "mains" exam takers would not so fondly recall, this conversation made me think somewhat differently. Responding to a question on the HR problems in government, Ahluwalia says:There's big bias within the government against people wanting to specialize. The IAS' view of itself is, it's a generalist service. This I think is a bit of a colonial hangover. You come from England to rule the country; expertise is looked down upon. But in this day and age, we ought to be encouraging the people who are really into IT—there's no point putting someone who's really made up his mind that he wants to be in IT to have a stint in education and health and road transport and that sort of stuff.At another point in the episode, he begins the journey of a policy reform as follows:In the Indian system, and maybe it's true in all systems, every area is assigned to a ministry, and changes of policy that belong (in a narrow sense) to that area are the responsibility of the ministry. There are two problems here. One is, the functioning of a system as a whole requires you to do more than just add up what needs to be done in each area, because you want to look at what the economist would call a general equilibrium approach. If you want to reach a particular result, you've got to do A over here, B over there, C over there.I think there's a deeper insight at the intersection of these two dimensions. The “generalists vs specialists” debate masks another important dimension of effectiveness—whether the person approaches a problem with general equilibrium thinking or is limited to partial equilibrium analysis.General equilibrium analysis takes into account the long-term interactions of a large number of economic agents. In mathematical terms, it is based on the assumption that several variables can change at once in response to a policy change. Partial equilibrium analysis, on the other hand, focuses narrowly on one sector and a handful of variables. Ahluwalia explains that generalist civil service officers can default to partial equilibrium analysis because they are blinkered by their ministry mandates and interests. For example, few bureaucrats from the Ministry of Commerce will advocate that a unilateral lowering of tariffs will be beneficial to India, even though a general equilibrium analysis says so. However, many specialists also fall into this same trap, albeit for different reasons. An urban planner is likely to hate mixed-use neighbourhoods, while an environmentalist might argue that all mining is evil. These partial equilibria arise from the failure to see the interlinkages across the economy, a crucial aspect of general equilibrium analysis. So, irrespective of whether you are a generalist or a specialist, what matters is whether the bureaucrats are able to approach problems with a general equilibrium mindset. The current government mechanism to move career bureaucrats across ministries through deputations is probably a sub-optimal way to achieve competence in this dimension. The second mechanism is to have intra-ministerial committees or expert committees. Organisations such as the Planning Commission, Niti Aayog, or the PMO are supposed to bring in a general equilibrium mindset as well. The question is which of these bodies is best equipped to do this in this way. Probably, another way to push towards this equilibrium is to have economists and behavioural sociologists in many ministries so that their internal recommendations take a broader view beyond the self-protection of ministerial turfs. PS: There's a nice chapter on “Trace the general equilibrium effects” in In Service of the Republic by Shah & Kelkar.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* A Twitter friend asked for book recommendations to understand post-independence Indian economic history. These are the ones that came to mind:* India's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity by Vijay Joshi* India: the Emerging Giant by Arvind Panagariya* India's Tryst with Destiny by Arvind Panagariya and Jagdish Bhagwati* Backstage: The Story Behind India's High Growth Years by Montek Singh Ahluwalia &* Changing India volume, this set is a compilation of Manmohan Singh's papers (reading level: advanced) * [Podcast] This Grand Tamasha episode is a great introduction to internal security in India, backed by the latest research and data on a crucial yet under-discussed topic. * [Podcast] Should there be a caste census? Here's a Puliyabaazi on this topic that's sure to gain more traction as the national election draws near. We present two opposing perspectives, one by Yogendra Yadav and the other by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, before reaching our own divergent conclusions. Listen in and tell us what you think. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

How can it be that if Indian State invokes a common law principle so clearly enunciated in the US, it suddenly becomes a fascist enemy of decent NGOs?  

India Policy Watch #1: Don't Concentrate Insights on issues relevant to India— RSJIn one of the recent editions on the Hindenburg short-selling saga, I had written about how easily the Adani group had spread itself into a diverse range of sectors. The group was highly leveraged because it was so keen on getting into newer sectors and then winning bids in them with metronomic efficiency. Generally speaking, it is difficult to run a conglomerate of different businesses. You might argue that each business can be handled by a competent management team who will use the brand name and deep pockets of the parent group to build a solid business. But it is easier said than done. Capital allocation decisions, which lie at the heart of executing a business strategy, are difficult within a single line of business. They become hugely complicated within a conglomerate of businesses. Misallocation of capital, lack of focus and inability to stay competitive against smaller, nimbler players eventually follow. Soon, the businesses need to be hived off, and you find companies convincing would-be investors on how they are doing fewer things and doing them well instead of spreading themselves too thin. This is the usual cycle. Yet, you see conglomerates appearing on the business landscape across countries. In some cases, these are businesses integrating vertically or finding interesting adjacencies in their business. This kind of makes sense in the Coase-ian “Nature of Firm” way. I mean, if the transaction costs of finding someone to do a particular work are higher than you doing it yourself, sure, go ahead and do it yourself. But beyond that, there should be no economic reason for having conglomerates. Unless you have one of these conditions in the economy: a) Cost of capital is high, and access to it is difficult. Newer players find it difficult to access capital to start new businesses while older, established players with free cash flow can muscle their way into unrelated but lucrative new sectors only because they have access to capital at a lower rate. b) The playing field isn't level for newer players to make a dent. Through a mix of friendly regulations, ‘working' the networks and M&A activities, the bigger players continue to have an advantage going into a new sector over smaller players who might have expertise in cracking those sectors open.c) There's relatively little ease of doing business in those sectors or in the evening overall. The established conglomerates with an army of people, lawyers and consultants can get started relatively faster and capture the market than new entrants. You don't have to be a genius to see where the Indian policy-making framework is on the above conditions. There's common and easy access to capital through a large number of PEs and VC funds but only for a particular kind of ‘flavour of the season' variety. This also is getting difficult to access. The market for other forms of capital isn't deep enough. In the same vein, long-term capital for greenfield projects where the credit risk has to be borne by the issuer isn't available. There is always a whiff of regulatory capture especially in sectors where the government is closely involved bin decision making. Lastly, we might have moved up in the ‘ease of doing business' rankings, but it isn't clear yet how this has changed things on the ground. New businesses still find going tough for them. All of the above means that in the past five years, we are reversing a trend seen since the ‘91 reforms. That of increasing salience of conglomerates in India. You don't have to research too hard. Just take a look at any sector - already big or one that is emerging - you will have the same spectacle of a few large corporate groups getting themselves into all sorts of businesses, from defence to semiconductors or from airlines to carbonated soft drinks only because they believe they can take advantage of market distortions.As if to illustrate this point further, here's news that's only a day old. Here's Moneycontrol  reporting:“The shares of Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) rallied 3.5 percent in the morning trade on March 31 after the company said secured creditors, unsecured creditors and shareholders would meet on May 2 to approve the proposed demerger of Reliance Strategic Ventures.After the approval, the unit, which is the financial services subsidiary of the oil-to-telecom conglomerate, would be renamed Jio Financial Services.Benefits that shall accrue on the demerger of the financial services business will be the creation of an independent company focusing exclusively on financial services and exploring opportunities in the sector, the independent company can attract different sets of investors, strategic partners, lenders and other stakeholders having a specific interest in the financial services business, a financial services company can have a higher leverage (as compared to the Demerged Company) for its growth and, unlocking the value of the demerged undertaking for the shareholders of the demerged company, the conglomerate said in an exchange filing.”This isn't out of the ordinary. If you search for similar news items from the last five years, you will notice the same pattern of large conglomerates (usually the big 5) muscling into other or newer sectors because they think they have the capital and they will be able to manage the sector well. While one cannot blame these conglomerates for their ambitions, this trend suggests we might have tipped over from being pro-markets to pro-business. Coincidentally, as I was writing this, we had a paper authored by Viral Acharya (former Deputy Governor, RBI) on the opportunities and challenges for the Indian economy published by the Brookings Institution and being discussed in the media. Acharya has highlighted the concentration of power in Indian industry as a particularly worrying trend. He writes (I have paraphrased a bit):“A striking feature of this rise in industrial concentration by private companies is that it is in part due to the growing footprint of “Big-5” industrial conglomerates, based on the overall share of assets in non-financial sectors in 2021. Data shows the following patterns.First, until 2010, the Big-5 increased their footprint in more and more industrial sectors, broadening their reach to 40 NIC-2-digit non-financial sectors. After this breadth first strategy came the depth-next strategy. Starting in 2015, the Big-5 started acquiring larger and larger share within the sectors where they were present. In particular, their share in total assets of the non-financial sectors rose from 10% in 1991 to nearly 18% in 2021, whereas the share of the next big five (Big 6-10) business groups fell from 18% in 1992 to less than 9%. In other words, Big-5 grew not just at the expense of the smallest firms, but also of the next largest firms.Next, this growth of Big-5 appears to be driven in part by their growing share of overall Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity. Even though the aggregate number of M&A deals has dropped since 2011, the share of M&A deals by the Big-5 has doubled from under 3% in 2015 to 6% in 2021, without such an increase being seen in the next five biggest groups. Arguably, this growth has also been supported by a conscious industrial policy of creating “national champions” via preferential allocation of projects and in some cases regulatory agencies turning a blind eye to predatory pricing. Equally importantly, given the high tariffs, Big-5 groups do not have to compete with international peers in many sectors where they are present and derive most of their revenues domestically.”Acharya then goes on to list the usual downstream problems of such an increase in market power concentration - inefficient allocation of capital, favouritism in project allocation, regulatory interference, related party transactions, over-leveraging while becoming too big to fail and crowding out new players. But he also makes an important claim that this concentration of market power is one of the reasons for persistent core inflation. He concludes:“In summary, creating national champions, which is considered by many as the industrial policy of “new India”, appears to be feeding directly into keeping prices at a high level, with the possibility that it is feeding “core” inflation's persistent high level.”I won't go as far as Acharya yet on this thesis. As he admits, there's more work that needs to be done here, but his conclusion on pricing remaining high because of industry concentration does pass the smell test. And it should concern policy makers. I know there are many who will ask what's wrong in creating ‘national champions' like the tiger economies did between the 70s-90s. But there are a few differences in our case. Firstly, the focus on creating national champions elsewhere was to choose specific sectors where they might have a comparative advantage, invest in them, especially on technology and then win in global markets through an export-oriented strategy. It is a somewhat flawed approach, but it still makes sense for a low-income economy to do this. But we aren't really doing this in India. Our so-called national champions are focused on domestic markets where there's no particular need to have them. In fact, there is only a monopoly risk here with the attendant problems of price cartelisation and poor customer service. Also, the limited focus on exports that these big five domestic players have as of now is largely linked to natural resources and not large-scale, job-creating manufacturing setups. It is unclear how the broader economy is benefitting from this apparent design. Secondly, the successful national champion model in other economies didn't need high import tariffs to support their ambitions like it is now the case in India. We have written about this many times in the past. Higher tariffs will reduce the competitiveness of the domestic players in those sectors to compete globally. It is counterintuitive to have a high tariff regime if you want to build national champions. After all, global markets are much larger than the domestic market, and that's where these conglomerates must be competing. Thirdly, what's the government getting out of the apparent tilting, if it is intentional, of the playing field in favour of these players? If the idea is to have national champions despite the obvious flaws in this intent, it makes sense to have stakes in these ventures to participate in the value being created. Lastly, the overall economy will benefit if the process of creating such champions leads to factor market reforms and real ease of doing business for other participants in the process. Else, the larger players will continue to get ahead not because of better products or innovation but simply because they know how to manage the system. In other words, it is the 1970s all over again with a tadka of markets.It is difficult to see how we can trace our way back from this path, given the apparent lack of opposition and the already dominant position of these conglomerates in industry and media. Also, any walking back will require some bold antitrust kind of measures (it is what Acharya suggests) which is quite impossible in India. Possibly, the only medium-term scenario is these conglomerates start stepping on each other's toes as they continue to diversify their businesses and that competition alleviates the problems of concentration. But that might be too late in coming, or they might have a tacit understanding of the rules of the game in competing with one another. It will distort markets further. Maybe this is a tad alarmist, but it is important to acknowledge there's way too much diversification among the top conglomerates in India and that's always a sign of market distortion. India Policy Watch #2: We Need an Agnipath for India's DiplomacyInsights on issues relevant to India— Pranay KotasthaneIn edition #198, I highlighted that at least three areas of the Indian executive need a quick state capacity boost. These were: the Ministry of External Affairs, Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology (MeitY), and economic regulatory bodies such as the Competition Commission of India (CCI). Then I came across this tweet from the External Affairs Minister, which acted as a positive reinforcement for this line of thinking. Managing these engagements in an unsettled world order needs an immediate boost in India's foreign policy capacity. Solutions like incremental increases in the Indian Foreign Service (IFS), while required, will be too slow.What we need today is a ‘surge hiring' strategy. The external affairs ministry, in fact, was the first union ministry to experiment with a broader lateral entry for government officers in 2015. It also opened up positions in its policy planning and research division for people in academia and the private sector. However, these tentative trials seem to have lost steam. The underlying reason is the internal resistance from the foreign service officers, who see such attempts as a threat to their career progression.The surge hiring strategy should try a different approach. It should attempt to hire a much larger number of people below ambassadorial positions. This way, the cadre protection impulse can be side-stepped. Instead of targeting joint secretary levels, two fellowships could be attempted: one for fresh graduates and another for young professionals working within and outside the government (thanks to Nitin Pai for this idea). Given the growing prominence of technology and economic issues as foreign policy domains, this approach would help build institutional knowledge within the ministry. More importantly, the surge should target staffing for the headquarter functions in Delhi for managing various engagements and new initiatives. Indian missions abroad can continue to be led by IFS officers. Past attempts at lateral hiring were advertised as single posts in the unreserved category. By opening up a larger number of positions concurrently, the government could retain existing norms on reservations and quotas. Finally, the surge hiring strategy should have a sunset clause and a well-defined recruitment target. If it is conceptualised as a non-recurring measure keeping the current geopolitical situation in mind, it will resonate with the opposition and the parliament.With the Agnipath experiment of the defence ministry, the idea of short-term employment within the government has gained some acceptability. It is no longer anathema to the government but an idea whose time has come. Without a surge in foreign policy capacity, we will only have great ideas but tardy implementation, resulting in a perennially underperforming foreign policy. Matsyanyaaya: Reflections on the QuadBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneLast week, I attended a US State Department sponsored programme that aims to invigorate think tank research on Quad collaboration in the four countries. As part of the first segment of this programme, five representatives from each country's think tanks were hosted in the US. What follows are my reflections on the Quad as a geopolitical formation, based on what I saw in this programme.* Quad ranks higher on the US foreign policy agenda than I had expected. My prior assumption was that given the multiple alliances that the US leads, a new, amorphous grouping such as the Quad wouldn't rank high on its priority list. However, the interactions with the officials suggested a conscious effort to infuse energy into the Quad. * The Quad is being positioned visibly and intentionally as a positive force that would bring benefits to the Indo-Pacific at large, rather than as an anti-China “alliance”. This is the reason why the interactions as part of the grouping have spawned into six leader-level working groups—on COVID-19 Response and Global Health Security, Climate, Critical and Emerging Technologies, Cyber, Space, and Infrastructure, and at least three initiatives—Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative, and the Quad Fellowship. The strategy, if there is one, seems to be to throw several balls up in the air, knowing fully well that some of them will get dropped, while others might be caught on their way back by all four countries, or only a subset amongst them.* As the Quad is not a traditional security alliance, its success metric will also be different. Not all cooperation will be Quad-labelled, and some of it might come in bilateral or trilateral formats. So, the increased cooperation between Japan and Australia on defence ties, and between India and Australia on economic ties, are also indicators that the Quad is moving in the right direction. * While the rationale for Quad collaboration in many areas is often “common interests” or “shared values”, an underrated frame is “mutual complementarities”. In many spheres, especially in technology, the Quad is an attractive forum for cooperation precisely because each country has complementary strengths. * Positioning Quad as a force for good in the Indo-Pacific—rather than a geopolitical grouping against China— in many areas runs the obvious risk of underperformance and loss of credibility. In international affairs, efforts at providing benefits to another country are usually known by their failures more than their successes. For instance, in May 2021, the Quad Vaccine Partnership targeted the provision of 1 billion COVID-19 vaccines. Even though the four countries individually delivered 670 million doses, including 265 million doses in the Indo-Pacific, the demand for vaccines waned by the end of 2022. The dominant narrative was that the Vaccine Partnership had failed, even though it had made a significant contribution. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Podcast] We were on Shruti Rajagopalan's excellent podcast Ideas of India to discuss our book and the Indian State's many puzzles. * [Podcast] A Puliyabaazi on citizencraft featuring Nitin Pai.* [Paper] This paper by Isha Bhatnagar offers evidence that gender equitable preferences are rising in India. From the abstract:Over more than a quarter-century period (1992–1993 to 2019–2021), I find a significant decline in son preference from 40 to 18 percent and an increase in gender-equitable preferences among most subpopulations. Multivariate analysis shows that for all survey years, education and frequent exposure to television significantly increased the odds of gender-equitable preferences. In the last decade, community norms supporting women's employment are also associated with gender-equitable preferences. In addition, decomposition analysis shows that compared to compositional change, social norm change accounts for two-thirds of the rise in gender-equitable preferences. These findings suggest that rising norms of gender equality have the potential to dismantle gender-biased preferences in India. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

In this episode, Shruti speaks with Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S. Jaitley about the intersections of markets, society and the state. They discuss the importance of individual decision-making, self-governance versus good governance, why economic growth is a moral imperative, the persuasive power of Indian cinema and much more. Kotasthane is the deputy director of the Takshashila Institution and chairs the High Tech Geopolitics Programme. Jaitley is a public policy and political economy enthusiast. They co-write “Anticipating the Unintended,” a newsletter on public policy ideas and frameworks. Their book, “Missing in Action: Why You Should Care About Public Policy,” examines Indian public policy through the lens of the state. Recorded March 28th, 2023 Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links. Follow us on Twitter Follow Shruti on Twitter Follow Pranay on Twitter Click here for the latest Ideas of India episodes sent straight to your inbox.

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The decline of India's parliament is a refrain that has often been repeated over the last seventy-five years of modern Indian democracy. A new book on India's Parliament addresses the decline thesis head-on and provides a warts-and-all assessment of India's legislative chamber.The book is called House of the People: Parliament and the Making of Indian Democracy and its author is the scholar Ronojoy Sen. Ronojoy, a senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asia Studies at the National University of Singapore, joins Milan on the podcast this week to discuss the evolution of India's parliament, the constitutional pre-history of legislative institutions in India, and the surprising lack of debate around universal suffrage. Plus, the two discuss the plague of parliamentary disruptions, the black box of conflicts of interest, and how the practice of Indian democracy transformed the institution of Parliament. Madhav Khosla and Milan Vaishnav, “The Three Faces of the Indian State,” Journal of Democracy 32, no. 1 (January 2021): 111-125.Ronojoy Sen, “Has the Indian Parliament stood the test of time?” Observer Research Foundation, August 15, 2022.

Fremont Indian State Park in Utah has thousands of petroglyphs left by the ancient culture that once inhabited the area. Among them, several have been understood to have astronomical purposes. In this episode, I chat with John Lundwall who made this discovery about the petroglyphs, and Elizabeth Nagengast-Stevens, curator and archaeologist at the park. Visit NightSkyTourist.com/60 for more information about this episode. CHECK OUT THESE LINKS: John Lundwall: https://www.johnklundwall.com Fremont Indian State Park: https://stateparks.utah.gov/parks/fremont-indian/ FOLLOW NIGHT SKY TOURIST ON SOCIAL MEDIA Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NightSkyTourist Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/nightskytourist/ SPREAD THE WORD Help us reach more people by subscribing to the podcast, leaving a review, and sharing it with others. GET TO KNOW US MORE Visit NightSkyTourist.com to read our great blog articles, check out our resource page, and sign up for our newsletters. Our monthly newsletter has content that is exclusive for subscribers. SHARE YOUR QUESTION We want to hear your questions. They could even become part of a future Q&A. Record your question in a voice memo on your smartphone and email it to us at Hello@NightSkyTourist.com. COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS Email us at Hello@NightSkyTourist.com.

We turn 200 editions old today. It has been fun. Thank you for giving us your time. You can do without another self-congratulatory mail in your inbox. So, let's get moving on with a nod to this classic line of Majrooh. मैं अकेला ही चला था जानिब-ए-मंज़िल मगर लोग साथ आते गए और कारवाँ बनता गयाI had set out on this journey all by myselfOthers joined, and it turned into a caravan India Policy Watch #1: Decoding Our MaladiesInsights on burning policy issues in India— RSJTell me the conspiracy theories a society is willing to believe in, and I will tell you about its maladies. Truth is a contested notion in today's world. Maybe it has always been. But there's something clarifying about a conspiracy theory that no truth can match. It is not the conspiracy itself. That often crumbles under the lightest of burden of logic applied to it. The real deal is what prompts the need for the conspiracy. It stems from the irreconcilability of an often irrational belief that many hold with the reality of the world around them. The greater the chasm between the two, the weirder the conspiracy theory. And it is this chasm, this flight from reality, that a conspiracy theory is born to serve. By denying the facts that are around you and leaning on your own right to have an opinion, conspiracy theorists make it easier for you to dismiss inconvenient facts as mere opinions. Once you have painted facts as fabrications of another mind, you get the permission to have your own facts. That's how conspiracy theory works.So, why am I going on about conspiracy theories now? Well, here's Mint:In an article quoted by Hindi Daily, Amar Ujala, the RSS mouthpiece said that a group of Indians has created a negative narrative against Adani. The article pinned blame on an ‘Indian lobby which includes the country's famous propaganda websites associated with leftist ideology'. Harping on an ideological and political warfare, the article further stated that this attack is very similar to how ‘anti-India' George Soros ruined the Bank of England and the Bank of Thailand.He claimed that this controversy did not start on January 25 after the Hinderburg report, but it already began in 2016-17 in Australia. According to the RSS mouthpiece, an Australian NGO called Bob Brown Foundation (BBF) manages an exclusive website only to defame Indian Industrialist Gautam Adani. Marking out NGOs and websites in India, the Amar Ujala article singled out an alleged contribution of Azim Premji's NGO to the Independent and Public-Spirited Media Foundation. The article alleged that left-minded media houses and NGOs were behind the sudden turmoil of the Adani Group.”So there you have it. I suspect this thing isn't going to die away soon. This is a useful pot to keep stirring. A few leaks about CBI or ED investigations every few months will give enough ammunition for future reports or allegations about the Adani group. Once you have brought in left-minded NGOs into the picture, there's open season for all sorts of conspiracy theories to pop up in future. The speed of response to any future report will improve from here on. Soros is at it again with our leftists will be the first cry. I often wonder what a busy life that man must be leading.Let us first get the theory out of the way. The short-seller interest in the Adani group of companies wasn't because a five-member research group could dig out already existing information about it that could raise questions about stock manipulation and governance. No. It was because, and mark my words carefully now, a leftist cabal of anti-India forces led by a foundation run by India's greatest philanthropist who happens to be Muslim. Their intention was to stop the apparently unstoppable rise of India by knocking the Adani group off their perch because, after all, the two are now inseparable. When the stocks went up all these years, there was no conspiracy to suggest why they went up. It was all market. But not when they crashed. Also, what a convoluted and low-probability way to go about such an agenda. All these conspirators, after putting their minds together to find the best way to spread chaos in the financial system, came up with the bright idea that we must get Hindenburg to write a report. What are the odds that someone could predict the sequence of events after the report? That all of this was intended. Pretty low if you use your judgment.This brings me to the earliest, and still the most cogent, criticism of conspiracy theories by my favourite thinker, Karl Popper. He coined a term to collectively describe this phenomenon: “The Conspiracy Theory of Society”. His point was simple. It comforts many people to believe that history is a product of intended actions by individuals or groups driven by certain beliefs or ideologies (or conspiracy theories). In my words, people believe in conspiracy theories because they aren't Bayesian.Anyway, he wrote:“The conspiracy theory of society is just a version of… theism, of a belief in gods whose whims and wills rule everything…. The conspiracy theorists will believe that institutions can be understood completely as the result of conscious design; and as to collectives, he usually ascribes to them a kind of group-personality, treating them as conspiring agents, just as if they were individual men.”So, there is a leftist cabal running across the world who are all working in tandem with such precision and impact that you wonder why they are not using such superpowers to actually rule the world. Why are they the underdogs? Popper had a counterintuitive answer for this too. The grand theories of this kind become real when the people who believe in them gain power. Because then any failing which is natural (or otherwise) during governance can be ascribed to a conspiracy. The mythical realm of the conspirators and their powers grows because those in power stoke them.As Popper wrote:"The conspiracy theory of society is very widespread, and has very little truth in it. Only when conspiracy theoreticians come into power does it become something like a theory that accounts for things which actually happen (a case of what I have called the ‘Oedipus Effect'). For example, when Hitler came into power, believing in the conspiracy myth of the Learned Elders of Zion, he tried to outdo their conspiracy with his own counter-conspiracy."The problem with ascribing such wide-ranging power to a super-effective cabal is the old human problem of screwing up. Humans make mistakes, and they don't anticipate the unintended. If the state with all its powers can fail in this, why shouldn't a mysterious, underground group of conspirators? For Popper, if every event is due to intentional successful planning by conspirators, where does it account for human stupidity and their history of not translating intents to actions? Most of the consequences of our actions are not in our control, and the best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry, as the bard said. This is the strongest argument against any ‘conspiracy theory of society'. As he wrote:“It is one of the striking things about social life that nothing ever comes off as intended. Things always turn out a little bit differently. We hardly ever produce in social life precisely the effect that we wish to produce, and we usually get things that we do not want into the bargain."Anyway, that possibly explains why such theories are usually bunkum. Coming back to the point that I started out with - what does it tell us about our society when we have such conspiracy theories being spread around by mainstream and social media platforms? I have three opinions to offer here. First, despite evidence of the past, we love personality cults. We believe in the idea of a man of destiny who will change our fortunes. So, it is easy for anyone to lead us on to the line that a charge against the Adani group is a charge against PM Modi, which is, therefore, a conspiracy to destabilise India. The logical improbability of this sequence comes up short against the irrational belief in the cult. Second, there was always an underlying natural scepticism in Indian society about the wealthy and their ways. The usual lament that captured this was that line often used in Hindi films - “sab saale chor hain.” Like any strain of scepticism, it was both wrong and occasionally healthy for a society to harbour. What we have now is the willingness to abandon this sense of scepticism in favour of vishwaas. It would have been a welcome change had it been an abandoning of scepticism about the markets as against a particular group. But, alas, no one is cooking conspiracy theories to support freedom and markets. Lastly, the ease with which the conspiracy theory could bring in a Muslim entrepreneur with an impeccable track record in business and possibly, one of India's greatest philanthropists, tells you where the conspiracy theorists want you to be led. There's not much to explain here. It is sad.Like I said earlier, this is a pot that will keep getting stirred because it is a pot that will keep giving. You might ask how do you know that the conspiracy theorists aren't right. Well, I don't know, but it is good to retain scepticism on both views. I'm sure Popper would have had something to say here. In fact, he does:“It is a great step forward to learn to be self-critical; to learn to think that the other fellow may be right - more right than ourselves. But there is a great danger involved in this… for it is more likely that both, we ourselves and the other fellow, are wrong.”A free society is, by definition, a sceptical society.India Policy Watch #2: Five Imperatives for the Future of Indian Public Policy Insights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneIn analysing emergent public policy developments every week, there's a risk of losing sight of the big picture. So for our two-hundredth edition, I want to step back and reflect on what I feel are imperatives for Indian public policy going ahead. These, to me, are five goalposts we should not lose sight of.One, The imperative of "societism" - We must restore the balance between the state, market, and society.We are at a juncture where the weaknesses of all three agents of change are apparent. Society is increasingly majoritarian, the State's internal balancing mechanisms are flailing, and market concentration across sectors is rising. The Indian Republic was meant to be the primary vehicle of a social revolution. Seventy-five years later, its primacy has only been cemented. So much so that a large section of Indian society wants to deploy the same State apparatus for another social revolution — one whose goals are quite different.The crucial point is that solutions to today's social failures, such as affective polarisation and majoritarianism, must come from society. These aren't market failures that the State can rectify or government failures that better bureaucratic design can fix. We need to understand how to build social capital in the Information Age, where political leanings tend to predetermine social interactions. We must invest in new ways to build “bridging social capital” that brings people from different walks of life together. Just as Hindutva is a social movement, its response must also be many social movements. Two, getting the Indian State to do fewer things and doing them well.The paradox of the Indian State—as we have discussed many times in this newsletter—is that it's too big and too small simultaneously. It's omni-absent. It is big in terms of its ambition but small in terms of its competence. The developmental departments of the governments are quite small and understaffed. The State's performance on its core responsibilities—public services, law and order, primary health, or education—is consistently pathetic. So much so that most people have begun to think of the State as a means for other ends, such as pride, or for honouring their religious and linguistic asmita (identity).We must go back to holding the State accountable for its core functions. Three, the imperative of strengthening the Indian RepublicFar too often, we have allowed the Indian Republic to be sacrificed on the altar of democracy. It is the Indian Republic that prevents a majority from using its coercive power against individuals or groups with lesser power. The Indian Republic prohibits the majority from running roughshod based on its numerical strength. In a Republic like India, the Constitution limits the power of governments and groups to protect an individual's rights. It is the Republic that grants fundamental rights to individuals to live, work and even protest. Strengthening it is our only chance. Four, the imperative of economic growthMany of our problems will become less burdensome if we become richer. We must not forget that a GDP per capita of merely $2500 is our biggest national weakness. We cannot redistribute our way out of such a poor country — there just aren't enough rich persons to redistribute from. Global inequality is overwhelmingly between countries, not within countries. Inequality reduction is overwhelmingly a national task. And you cannot do redistribution if your income levels are low, as the size of the economic pie is too small to create a difference meaningfully. Rich country governments spend up to 40% of GDP precisely because they can collect higher revenues from a more affluent population, even at low tax rates.Without economic growth, there can be no well-being, happiness, or sustainability. Five: The Imperative of HopeIn today's times, uncertainty engenders anxiety. Anxiety engenders distrust. And distrust engenders defeatism. And hence, we need hope to place us in the right frame of mind while confronting new challenges. We need to document government, society, and market successes. We must recognise that Indians have overcome seemingly insurmountable challenges several times in the past. Matsyanyaaya: High-tech Geopolitics in the Post-pandemic WorldBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneHere are four significant trends in high-tech geopolitics from my recent Takshashila Working Paper. One, trade wars are likely to be tech wars at their core. Nuclear weapons make large-scale conventional conflict unlikely. Similarly, globalisation has made any large-scale economic decoupling unfeasible. But the backstops in the high-technology domain are not understood well enough. Moreover, the emphasis on the importance of high-technology to national power means that governments are willing to incur the costs of high-technology decoupling. This decoupling might happen at the level of materials, machines, humans, and ideas. The precise pathway will be technology-specific.Two, aggressive national competition over high-technology might produce some non-linear breakthroughs this decade. The literature on national innovation suggests that a nation-state's net negative balance of security concerns (termed ‘creative insecurity') helps explain why only some nation-states choose to focus on innovation. Given that leading powers increasingly feel ‘creatively insecure', national policies will focus on innovation more than before, sometimes at the expense of consumers and other policy priorities. Regardless, this situation sets the stage for some key breakthroughs. This is not unlike the Sputnik moment when a beachball-sized artificial satellite led to a drastic change in science and innovation policies in the US.Three, there will be higher alignment between private high-technology players and their national governments. The position of Intel in China illustrates this change. Until as late as November 2021, Intel was deeply interested in China. A WSJ report showed that Intel is among the active investors in a Chinese Electronic Design Automation (EDA) firm. Another Bloomberg report pointed out that Intel wanted to build a fab in Chengdu. Both these stages of the semiconductor value chain are precisely where the US had planned to restrict Chinese access. But after the CHIPS Act was announced, Intel dropped its plans to start a new fab in China. Instead, it now plans to invest more in the US, even though making chips there is much costlier. These flips are likely to become more commonplace.Four, we will likely encounter selective international cooperation on high-technology subject to geopolitical considerations. High-technology ecosystems are transnational; they rely on comparative advantages to accelerate innovation. To get ahead of each other, high-technology powers such as the US and China are likely to transfer technologies to their respective partners, provided these strengths are complementary. Such cooperation was recently seen in the AUKUS deal and then in the iCET announcement on GE jet engines.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Podcast] Over at Puliyabaazi, Pranay Lal gives a riveting account of India's natural history* [Paper] A useful conceptual framework of defence innovation This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

Predictions: 2023—RSJAs promised last week, let's get going with some predictions for 2023. Pranay likes to keep them very specific (for a good reason), while I get away with broad bets.Global EconomyThe problem with predicting anything on how things will unfold globally is the random big event that upends all forecasts. This has happened in the last three years. The impact of the pandemic waves and the Ukraine war is yet to play out fully. By themselves, it makes for difficult terrain for forecasts. I'm hoping we don't have another such event during the year.  #1 The trend of securing your supply chain for critical products will get stronger.Look, it is difficult to disentangle from the globally integrated supply chains that have been a feature of the economic model since the end of the Cold War. But it is clear to most large economies that on issues that concern national security, it will be foolhardy to not plan for worst-case scenarios any longer. And national security could mean anything, really, but I can see on energy and key technology, nations will opt for more secure supply chains with watertight bilateral partnerships than be at the mercy of distributed, multilateral chains. I won't go as far as calling it ‘de-globalisation' yet, but this ‘gated globalisation' is a trend that's here to stay. What this will mean in concrete terms is there will be a gathering of pace on bilateral treaties among larger economies on these issues that reduces dependence on China or Russia. For India, there are a couple of issues here. How to continue to balance the purchase of oil from Russia for its energy security without inviting sanctions from the west? It has managed this well in the last year. The other issue is to find alternatives to Russian hardware for its defence machinery without rubbing it the wrong way. We have batted for free trades on these pages for a long time. So, it is concerning to see this retreat, but history has shown over time, geopolitics trumps geoeconomics. #2 The fears of elevated inflation and a recession in the US in 2023 are overblown. The recession is due, but it will come a bit laterI have made the point here earlier too. The Fed has gone overboard on inflation targeting with more rate cuts than necessary and not waiting for their impact to come through. The moderation of inflation in the past few months (though at 3.6 per cent, it is still higher than the target) suggests that the Fed has been partly successful and it should continue to remain hawkish. I am not so sure. It takes time for rate hikes to start impacting demand, and my suspicion is that the current moderation in inflation was due in any case. The impact on rate hikes on subduing demand and growth is yet to play out. My view is that as supply chain issues ease up with China opening up, energy demand going up and the US continuing to be at almost full employment, we might have a 2023 where for the most part, the US inflation will be higher than target, Fed will continue to remain hawkish, and the growth will hold up. This will mean the real risk of recession will be more toward the end of the year than now. #3 Big Tech will continue to be under the cosh Three problems look to exacerbate in the tech space in 2023. First, the valuation of ad-driven economic models and the insane optimism about the distributed ledger, crypto, DAO or independent sovereigns (yeah, remember that) will abate. A lot of value has been destroyed in the last year (esp in public markets), and I still think there's more to go in the private market valuations. This correction will weigh on markets, fund raises and investments into startups. Second, global markets will shrink for Big Tech as more countries will place restrictions on how deep they will allow them to own commerce or payment infrastructure. I half expect India to gradually move all payment and eCommerce arms of Big Tech into a structure that's domestically controlled and owned in 2023. Third, FTC, with Hina Khan at the helm, will accelerate antitrust and competition law changes to reduce the dominance of Big Tech. Some of these measures will be significant overreach in my opinion, but I see more executive orders in this space. Conversely, I see significant hype building up on AI platforms during the year. Like every hype cycle we will have people going overboard on AI, but I think this is one trend where in the classic sense, we might be overestimating the impact in the near term and underestimating it in the long term. AI will eventually get us a driverless car, but it will get to the mediocre creator economy faster. The jobs under immediate threat aren't that of cab drivers and factory workers. The average copywriter, reporter and illustrator are in greater peril. It will be interesting to see how these groups who have a greater share of voice in the media will tackle the threat of AI in 2023. Indian Economy#1 Greater optimismI am a bit more optimistic about the broader numbers than most, and I will explain why. I think GDP growth will come in around 6.5 per cent for FY24, and inflation will be around 5 per cent. We might see a couple of rate hikes in the next few months, taking the repo rate to 6.75 per cent, but that will be it. I see even a small possibility of a rate hike cut in the later part of the year to spur growth with an eye on Lok Sabha elections in May ‘24. We have corporate balance sheets that are strong, banks across the board are well provided for, and inflation hasn't gone out of control. I see domestic consumption to remain strong and exports, in the light of the shift away from China, to be good for manufacturers, and how much ever I might struggle to get behind the PLI scheme, it will yield some short-term benefits. IT exports might be a dampener, but on balance, I see more upside to these predictions. Of course, the risks are another global one-off event, oil prices going up and restrictions on accessing Russian oil and a bad monsoon. But those aside, I foresee India standing out as an outperformer thanks in no part to many cards falling into place for it often without its own efforts. But then why look the gift horse in the mouth?#2 Digitalisation: Wave 2 There will be a significant push on digitalisation in lending and eCommerce. The UPI infrastructure has revolutionised payments and, along with GST, has accelerated the formalisation of the economy. The benefits of these have so far been more skewed towards the government in terms of tax collections. I think we will see a focused push for the next round of benefits with platforms like OCEN (lending) and ONDC (eCommerce). The data that's available because of the digital rails, the account aggregator framework that's live now with banks and the groundwork done in getting small suppliers onboard on ONDC - these prerequisites are now available for the next order benefits of digitalisation for customers. Also, as I mentioned in an earlier point, doing this will also mean shifting the balance of power from Big Tech-owned entities to an open platform or domestically controlled entities. I sense a strong push in this direction in 2023.#3 The expected capex cycle push from the government will not come. There are a couple of reasons for it. First, this government has always been careful about fiscal deficit, and it is particular about the risk of the fiscal space. The government has committed to a 4.5 per cent target for the union government deficit in the next 3 years from the current levels, that's expected to be 6.4 per cent. I see a tightening in the fiscal stance during the year with a gradual reduction in some of the pandemic-related subsidies and better targeting of the benefits improving distribution efficiency. The other reason for a muted capex spend is the likely belief that the private sector credit capex cycle seems to be picking up. These are early days for it, but the data for the past two quarters shows an uptick in corporate credit pickup and an increase in interest costs in the balance sheet. The benefits of the corporate tax cut in 2019 are now seen in strong corporate profits in FY23 for most sectors. That, plus the belief that the rate cycle has almost peaked, could mean the private capex cycle could strengthen during the year. I expect the MSME sector to gain from strength to strength on the back of China+1, PLI-like schemes and easier access to credit because banks are in better shape. MSME is the story of the next decade.India Political and Social#1 More of the sameThe expected consolidation of opposition forces to counter the BJP isn't going to happen early enough for it to mount a credible challenge in 2024. There are eight state elections in 2023, and I suspect BJP will see reverses or very close fights in a couple of them where it is the incumbent (MP and Karnataka). But LS elections aren't any longer an agglomeration of many smaller elections like they used to be pre-2014. So, I don't see an upheaval in national politics in 2023 that will make a meaningful dent in 2024. This is a pity because we have reached a stage of single-party dominance of polity and media, which isn't healthy for democracy in the medium term. But it is hard to see opposition consolidation or a credible case that they can make to counter the electoral juggernaut of the BJP at this time. Congress, the other national party, isn't capable of moving the masses either with its agenda or its leadership. The vacuum in national politics looks set to stay.#2 More Exit, Less VoiceI have made the point in the past about social fault lines tripping us up while we magically have a growth window that's opened up for us again. This holds true. The space for opposition or dissent has shrunk; more importantly, even the fight for protecting or broadening that space has gone out. As Hirshman (in Exit, Voice and Loyalty) asked in the context of the relationship between the state and its citizens: the citizen has the choice to either voice their disapproval when dissatisfied or exit from the state. The state would be dependent on citizens if they value their loyalty and would then pursue a policy that listens to their voice. However, if the state doesn't value it and the citizens know their voice won't matter, the only option is to exit. For certain sections of our citizenry, we are possibly at this stage of engagement with the state. This scenario might not hurt the majority today, but we would do well to remember it has never been a good idea for the state to not value the loyalty of its citizenry in the long run.  An Excerpt from Missing in Action: Why Should You Care About Public Policy— A chapter from our upcoming book that releases on 23rd JanuaryChapter 11: When the State Owns What's YoursA typical scene in those old Bollywood films with a rural setting was that of the zamindar standing with his ‘not-so- smart' (naalayak) offspring on the terrace of their haveli and telling him:Yahan se jahaan tak tumhari nazar jaati hai, woh saari zameen hamari hai![All the land that you can see from here belongs to us.]In reality, the only zamindar who can make such a claim in modern India is the Indian State.A fundamental concept underlying economic reasoning and public policy is the property rights system. To an Indian, the phrase ‘right to property' conjures up the image of a rapacious zamindar exploiting peasants. This narrative has fostered a zero-sum perception—owning property is assumed to have occurred in the context of the violation of someone else's human rights. This perception has, in turn, meant that the enforcement of property rights has always been weak in India. Once a fundamental right, the right to property under the Indian Constitution was deprecated to a constitutional right by the 44th amendment. Now the State can go about violating an individual's right over their property, as long as it can couch this takeover is being done under vaguely defined ‘public interest'.Why Is a Functional Property Rights System Necessary?A property right is an exclusive authority to determine how a resource is used. This applies not just to land but to any physical or intellectual property such as your phone, your water bottle, or your innovation. Such a right can be held by a person, a group of persons, or the State.When this exclusive authority over someone's resources is protected—by the State or society—the owners can be confident of deploying and improving the quality of their owned resource instead of spending their energy in feverishly protecting the resource from being stolen by another entity. Moreover, giving an exclusive authority to someone to enjoy the use of a resource changes the nature of competition itself, bringing it into the realm of social acceptability. For example, without property rights, entities might compete over a common resource by resorting to means such as intimidation, denial, and distancing. But once it is demonstrated that the authority over a resource will be protected, competition shifts to owners improving their offering to win more buyers. Finally, a strong property rights system also enables the exchange and sharing of resources, as resource owners can be confident that their ultimate ownership is secure.Now this sounds quite theoretical and straight out of an economic reasoning textbook, which this book is not. So, to understand how pivotal the concept of a well-functioning property rights system is, we turn to an Indian story of violation of these rights. By understanding what happens when property rights are denied, we might better appreciate their importance.Daastaan-e-SandalwoodThe story of sandalwood production in India is as intriguing as it is frustrating. The wood is used for its timber. The oil extracted from its roots is used in perfumes, incense, soaps, and medicines. In India, sandalwood has a special religious significance as well.As hopeful consumers, many of you would have heard about the astronomical costs of this wood. Many of you would have also heard about brigands such as Veerappan who gained Robinhood status by smuggling sandalwood. Some of you might have been duped into buying ordinary scented wood being passed off as sandalwood. But few of us realize that the strand that connects these stories is misguided State action.Generally, the price of a commodity is indicative of its natural scarcity, but that's not the case here. Nearly 90 per cent of the world's sandalwood resources are available in the three Indian states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. And yet, the production of sandalwood in India has declined sharply. In 1965–70, annual production stood at 4000 tonnes. By 1999–2000, it had decreased by half. And by 2019, it had become just 200 tonnes. Other countries supplied a total of 400 tonnes in the same year, while the total global demand is estimated to be nearly 6000 tonnes a year. This massive demand–supply gap has made sandalwood so costly that it is often referred to as ‘red gold'.The drastic fall in sandalwood supply from India can be explained by a long history of denial of property rights. In fact, State interference in growing, producing, and selling sandalwood has a history of nearly 230 years in India. Here's how the story goes.Sandalwood was in huge demand even during colonial times, especially in China. The East India Company— never one to miss a trading opportunity—aimed to exploit the resources in southern India and export them to China. The problem was that much of the sandalwood-growing area fell under the kingdom of Mysore, led by Tipu Sultan. Recognizing the commercial value of this resource, Tipu Sultan forbade his subjects from trading in the wood with the Britishers in 1786. To take this idea further, he decreed sandal as a ‘royal tree', monopolizing sandalwood trade in 1792. Thus began, out of good intentions, the story of sandalwood's decline.Eventually, this sandalwood trade blockade became one of the primary causes of the Anglo-Mysore Wars. Once the Britishers took control, they were only happy to continue the sandalwood trade monopoly. The conception of sandalwood as a source of government revenue strengthened. Fast forward to Independence and we see that such was the lure of the scented wood that subsequent Indian governments followed the same policy of denying property rights to sandalwood growers. Even when the tree was located on private land, it belonged to the state government, and the owner of the land was required to make a declaration of the number of trees on his land. The forest officer could enter any private land and cut the trees and the range forest officer was supposed to give 75 per cent of the value as decided by the officer. Landholders were to be held responsible for damage or theft of any tree even though they had no exclusive authority over it. Violators could be imprisoned and fined. Further, in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, it was necessary to get a licence to store, sell, and process sandalwood. Possession of sandalwood in excess of twenty kilograms was made an offence.Unsurprisingly, the complete disregard for property rights meant that no one was interested in growing sandalwood on their land. It became a liability to be gotten rid of rather than an asset to be invested in. After all, who would want to be accountable for a resource whose fruits of labour they cannot enjoy?The result was a steep fall in production. But the story didn't end there. Given that the demand for wood was still high, a thriving black market emerged. With supply from cultivators choked off by government policy, smuggling the wood growing in government-controlled forests became a lucrative opportunity. Such were the profits to be made that the government could not protect sandalwood smuggling from these forests. When governments created armies of forest guards and personnel to ‘protect' the forests, many forest staff colluded with smugglers, further causing the depletion of the resource. Eventually, this smuggling business paved the way for the likes of Veerappan, who moved away from the riskier ‘business' of killing elephants to the far-more profitable sandalwood smuggling.After decades of this failed policy of denying property rights, governments recognized their mistake in 2001, when the Karnataka government allowed private players to grow and own sandalwood. Tamil Nadu followed suit in 2002. But this recognition of exclusive authority remains incomplete. The government continued to monopolize demand, which meant that farmers could only sell the sandalwood back to the government. Realizing that this was still a major stumbling block, the Karnataka government further liberalized sandalwood policy in 2009. Now, the growers could sell their wood directly to semi-government corporations such as Karnataka State Handicrafts Development Corporation (KSHDC) and Karnataka Soaps and Detergents Limited (KSDL). Apparently, KSDL offers a non-negotiable sum of Rs 3500 per kg of sandalwood. The company then turns around and sells the product for nearly Rs 16,000. Even today, farmers are not free to sell to other private players or export their produce.Meanwhile, Australia, which had its own native sandalwood, shifted to the Indian variant in 1998, introduced genetically engineered high-yield varieties, and beat India at its own game. So much so that India now imports Australian sandalwood for the sandalwood oil industry!The TakeawayThe sad sandalwood story illustrates that denial of property rights took away a shot at prosperity for thousands of ordinary farmers. One of the key components of liberty is economic freedom. Denial of this core freedom to individuals by the State or the society is a cruel act that perpetuates poverty. The State shouldn't be let off easily when it abridges this basic right.The hope is that learning from the mistakes of previous generations, many states in India have now adopted liberal policies for sandalwood production. This shouldn't be seen as isolated policy reform. The principle that needs to be internalized is that the State should focus on the protection of property rights of individuals instead of usurping them.India Policy Watch: The Old Debate about Colonial Rule in IndiaInsights on current policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneEarlier in the month, I chanced upon this Al Jazeera article, in which two historians have a new data point to illustrate the damage inflicted by British colonial rule on India. They find that “Britain's exploitative policies were associated with approximately 100 million excess deaths during the 1881-1920 period.” Claims of this nature keep surfacing fairly regularly in our public discourse. In recent times, a reason has been the recurring debate in current-day Britain over the legacy of the British Empire. Even as that country is a much smaller power today and one that continues to be outpaced by other competitors, there is understandably a tendency to indulge in colonial nostalgia. From a realist perspective, the colonial period was indeed Britain's moment of glory. In response to this colonial nostalgia, Marxist scholars keep reminding us of numbers and narratives to explain how British rule was ruthless, inhuman, and detrimental to India. Another reason the debate finds a fresh lease of life is that Indian nationalists of various hues resurface the sone ki chidiya narrative — that India was rich and wealthy before the Britishers came here; it was only the British rule that impoverished us. Some even talk about reparations as a way to address—even if to a small extent—the problematic legacy of colonialism. Shashi Tharoor's 2017 book Inglorious Empire: What the British Did to India falls under this category. I, too, have caught myself resorting to this trope in casual conversations — the causal chain of reasoning for many of India's problems intuitively ends up with British Rule. We now know that these extreme claims are not all accurate. For instance, consider the economic deprivation argument. The oft-repeated claim is that India made up a quarter of the world's GDP before the Britishers set foot here, and by the time they left, India made up just 4 per cent of the world GDP, a sure sign of loot, plunder, and deliberate deprivation. But now we know better. India's GDP per capita in 1500 was still $500 (in constant 1900 dollars), far below that of contemporary powers such as China ($600) and Europe ($800). In the pre-industrialised world, GDP was a simple function of the population, as there were minor differences in productivity. We comprised 25 per cent of the world GDP only because India was one political populous unit, not because we were rich. The industrial revolution brought in a step-jump in productivity in Europe, and the divergence in incomes became a giant gap by the 1900s. While it might well be true that some part of the divergence resulted from British policies in India, the contribution of the intellectual, industrial, and social revolutions in Western Europe played a much bigger part in accelerating growth there. Moreover, we also know that the period between 1870 and 1913 saw the fastest growth in pre-independence India. On the other hand, economic historians such as Tirthankar Roy have repeatedly highlighted that the economic consequences of colonial rule are, at best mixed. His two books on the Economic History of India, covering the periods 1707-1857 and 1857-1947, authoritatively demonstrate three points. One, the Britishers could sweep across the subcontinent because many sections of Indians found them to be the best among all available alternatives. Two, British rule did bring in some benefits as well. Regardless of intentions, policies such as a consolidated tax system and Railways did have positive consequences. And three, it is difficult to estimate if famines and loot were substantially higher in the British era than in the past because comparable data for the latter simply doesn't exist. From a consequentialist lens, none of these counterarguments should surprise us. As we know, even the worst of social experiments do have some positives, and even the most well-intentioned policies also make some people worse off. Just like COVID-19 also had some small unexpected positive changes, British rule too had some positive outcomes.Despite these counter-arguments, the simpler stories that suggest “British plunder doomed India” are likely to stay dominant. That's because historical accuracy is not the most important consideration while discussing colonialism. Modern Indian nationalism grew out of the shared anti-colonial experience, and putting the blame on the “conniving” Britishers was important for forging unity amongst Indians. So, this narrative is really about nation-building rather than deepening our historical understanding.In today's times, the argument for reparations seems anachronistic. India is a bigger (definitely not richer) economy than the UK today. The UK PM himself is of Indian origin. The future prospects of India are far brighter than that of the UK. Given how far India has already come, these reparations arguments do not make any sense beyond an ointment for our emotional wounds. In fact, doubling down on this colonial loot argument can be counter-productive. India needs the West's help to increase its own national power vis-a-vis China. Just as China benefited from movements of goods, services, labour and capital from the West, we need them too. The more we keep harking back to emotional arguments against colonialism, the more difficult it becomes to adjust to the reality that the West remains indispensable for India. People's intentions in the past matter very little for future policymaking. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Article] This Mint article captures the main fallacy behind the sone ki chidiya narrative.* [Article] A good summary of Tirthankar Roy's two books on the economic history of India. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-three-exemplars-of-indian-cinema-in-2022-rrr-the-kashmir-files-and-kantara-11940742.html2022 was a watershed year for Indian cinema and cinephiles. At long last, the formulaic Hindi/Urdu cinema that has dominated both mindshare and box office took a beating, for it appears to no longer appeal to the consuming public. It has long been accused of lack of originality; its anti-Indian slant, and especially its overt anti-Hindu stance, have now begun to annoy large numbers of viewers. They voted with their wallets, as per BookMyShow.The yeoman efforts by @GemsofBollywood to demonstrate bad faith on the part of the industry have had an impact, as can be seen from the number of expensive flops: Lal Singh Chaddha, Shamshera, Raksha Bandhan, Cirkus, Dobaara, Liger. They should change course, though given the current crop of agenda-ridden poseurs and nepo-kids, it's not clear they can.As a direct consequence of the arrival a few years ago of high-bandwidth fiber-to-the-home, many cinema viewers have also become accustomed to a wide range of offerings on OTT like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video. This has made them aware of cinema from around the world that frankly shows that Bollywood has always been inferior in content and form, except for the film music (at least in earlier days). I was at one time a cineaste, enjoying the 20th century works of Kurosawa, Ray, Eisenstein, the Italian and French masters, Bergman, and the Indian New Wave. It was easy to dismiss the cinematic quality of the Mumbai film industry; but it has always been influential, and has set the narrative about India both internally and in the developing world, as well as Russia and Japan. For a variety of reasons (including simple prejudice), the Mumbai film industry has not been able to make a mark on Western audiences, and RRR is the first Indian film to make waves in the US market. In a positive write-up about why RRR deserves an Oscar, perhaps for Best Picture (yes, not for Best International Feature), Douglas Laman suggests that Indian films have been unfairly ignored (h/t Hari G).Thank you for reading Shadow Warrior. This post is public so feel free to share it.The fact is that all three of the films that became visible successes in 2022 (along with other big box-office successes KGF 2, Ponniyin Selvan, Pushpa) have origins outside the formulaic Mumbai industry, and it may well be the beginning of a trend. The three are distinctive and different, and it is arguable that they are archetypes of three types or even three genres of cinema. Cinema as spectacleRRR is cinema as spectacle (harking back to the big Hollywood productions whose intent it was to awe); The Kashmir Files is realistic, almost documentary in tone; and Kantara, the most difficult to precisely pigeonhole, is impressionistic, a cultural phenomenon immersing you in a world that you must be an insider to fully appreciate. RRR is the easiest for audiences to appreciate, because it compels suspension of disbelief, and draws you into its make-believe world with its fantastic stunts and subtle theme of rebellion against authority and cruel white colonialism (which appeals to the newly woke sentiment of film fans especially in the US). It is cinema as entertainment; the dances and the swashbuckling take center stage with the buddy story while the freedom struggle is sort of in the background.In a sense this kind of cinema is the lineal descendant of the story-tellers and bards of old. In India we had the katha-kalakshepam artists and traveling theater troupes telling/performing stories from the Puranas. Similarly, in many places there were shadow-puppet shows, again with heroic stories from the epics (like the wayang kulit of Java). Children would sit breathless often in dim lamplight, entranced by tales of brave warriors and fair maidens. SS Rajamouli, the director of RRR, is in that tradition: he tells tall tales, and he does it well. In fact, his two Baahubali films were masterpieces of the art, and they were among the very best Indian films in decades. Gorgeous sets, glorious set-piece battles, beautiful princesses, treachery, stalwart warriors, noble companions, fearsome villains – the works. And they were entirely believable because they were epics set in the (distant) mythical past, fables. Hollywood used to specialize in these too: remember Ben Hur and the like? Or even Kurosawa's Ran, Seven Samurai and Kagemusha. Therein lies my small gripe about RRR: since it is set in the recent past, I found it hard to engage with the superhuman stunts and the dance sequences, which were quite appropriate in the Baahubali films. Okay, that's just me.This also probably means that Rajamouli will be snatched away by Hollywood's rich ecosystem, as has happened to talented Hong Kong and Australian directors, who moved on to bigger and better things and global fame after relocating. That would be good for him, but bad for Indian film. Realist cinema, including cinema verite I am a fan of the understated and realistic school, having always preferred the low-key off-Bollywood film, such as Charulata, Pather Panchali, Bhuvan Shome, Chomana Dudi and in particular in Malayalam Uttarayanam, Thampu, Elippathayam. There is a subset of this realism, the class of historical film that does not veer into propaganda, for instance the Soviet masterpiece Battleship Potemkin or the Jewish-holocaust epic Schindler's List.Vivek Ranjan Agnihotri, who created The Kashmir Files, is known for his powerful and hard-hitting contemporary portrayals of Indian culture. His Buddha in a Traffic Jam was an indictment of the ‘Urban Naxal' phenomenon that seems to have infiltrated academia and media, and which, one could cogently argue, is a grave and existential threat to the nation. All of us who lived through the dark days of the 1990s and remember the newspaper headlines about Jammu and Kashmir then knew terrible things happened there to the minority population: a violent, religion-motivated ethnic cleansing. But much of this was swept under the carpet in the interest of some Nehruvian-Stalinist secularism. Unlike for other peoples who were targeted and exterminated, there has been no truth and reconciliation for Kashmiri Hindus.The Kashmir Files is almost entirely based on actual, well-documented atrocities against a defenseless civilian population, slightly fictionalized, and it is a damning indictment of the fecklessness of the Indian State, and in particular of the mindset that allowed the murders, rapes, and ethnic cleansing of Indian citizens by foreign-funded terrorists. [Note the Jammu attacks on Jan 2, 2023 as well: Hindus targeted and shot, and IEDs left in the house].That an Israeli leftist film-maker dared to deride TKF as ‘vulgar propaganda' as the head of the jury of the government-sponsored International Film Festival of India 2022 shows that the pusillanimity of the Indian State continues to this day. (I was also reminded of the powerful Malayalam Piravi, about one of the young men who ‘disappeared' during the Emergency.) But nothing takes away from the reality of the Kashmir holocaust; TKF is as chilling, and as accurate, a portrait as the Killing Fields was of Pol Pot's Cambodian holocaust of the 1970s. Thanks for reading Shadow Warrior! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.Cultural and spiritual phenomenonKantara is a difficult-to-define film, because it doesn't fit into a neat category. I wish I could say it was like Kurasawa's works, for example Rashomon, which immerse you into medieval Japan without apology or explanation. But Kurosawa was deeply influenced not only by traditional Japanese literature and theater, but also by Western film and theater traditions, and therefore his work is pretty much immediately understandable to a Western audience. Not so with Kantara. It is hard enough for many Indians to relate to the film; I imagine it would be well-nigh impossible for those from a non-Hindu frame of mind to do so. Even among Hindus, quite a few were baffled and could not relate to it. I was induced to see it by a wonderful review by the photographer Gowri Subramanya, and my expectations were sky-high.I could immediately understand and relate to the idea that there are spirits all around, a typically Hindu view. Thinking about it later, I remembered O V Vijayan's Little Ones, about benign family spirits that appeared as little dancing points of light, always there in times of trouble. But many Hindus might find it hard to relate to.I too had a bit of a hard time relating to the protagonist Siva's (played by director Rishab Shetty himself) wayward life: all the drinking and boar-hunting and the ‘bro' life irritated me because I wanted him to be the bhoota kola spirit dancer that he avoided becoming. (Spoiler alert) But in the end, he cannot evade his destiny, and in a glorious apotheosis he does become the fearsome Guliga. I later realized he had to go through his Hero's Journey (as Nambi did in Rocketry): that was what the story was all about. Maybe I was primed to appreciate Kantara, as Malabar's theyyams are almost identical to the bhoota kola in neighboring Tulunadu. I have watched, at dusk, the awe-inspiring appearance of the thee-poti, or the Devi with fire; and the Gulikan, the fierce guardian deity. They appeal to me, for I believe in this land and its ancient autochthonic deities. And here's an interesting dance interpretation of varaharoopam by two Kerala women. Varaha Roopam|Dance choreography |Pooja and Mariya |KantaraBut a lot of Hindus have been gaslighted and taught in school to disdain the gods of their ancestors; they have picked up half-baked Western, Abrahamic prejudices, which in the final analysis are based on blind faith that is doctrinally defined to be unquestionable. They are apologetic, and may try to ‘explain' the Hindu world-view to those who are programmed to not comprehend. If you will pardon my introducing a personal note, this is very much like what happened when the late Varsha Bhosle and I started writing unapologetic Hindu nationalist columns on rediff.com around 1995. They resonated with many; but others, nurtured on standard leftie fare, fulminated against us as though we violated their deeply held beliefs. Well, actually, yes. I have seen innumerable films that either demonize Hinduism (almost the entire oeuvre of Urduwood) or try to present a sanitized face for Western consumption. Kantara is the first film I have seen that presents Hindu beliefs as itihasa (iti-hasa, thus it is and was). This is the way things are. Deal with it. The fact that these three films of three different genres were successful – and the intensely patriotic Rocketry: The Nambi Effect was a hit too – is a tremendous boost for India. It's time to move away from self-flagellating mediocrity to proudly present Indian cinema as part of a cultural renaissance, as Japan, Hong Kong and Korea have done in the past. 1750 words, 1 Jan 2023 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com

Nehru's love for Sheikh Abdullah, and Rajiv Gandhi's affection for his son Farooq Abdullah is probably the single most important reason for the mess that Jammu and Kashmir finds itself in. Dr. Ajay Chrungoo joins Sanjay Dixit to examine the role played by them in subverting the Indian State. That's why Farooq runs away when questioned.

Global Policy Watch #1: The Many Transitions In China Global issues and their implications for India— RSJIn a few editions in the past, we have alluded to structural challenges in the Chinese economy and the window of opportunity that it presents India. I thought it would be useful to take a more comprehensive view of this. China reported a GDP growth of 0.4 per cent in the quarter that ended in June 2022. China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) isn’t known for its allegiance to truth. It is safe to assume the real GDP would have shrunk in the quarter. The daft ‘zero Covid’ policy led to total lockdowns in major cities during the quarter. The government crackdown on the real estate sector has meant that investment in the sector fell sharply. These contributed to the slowdown. Two other data points are interesting to note. The unemployment rate among the youth aged between 16-24 was at an all-time high of about 20 per cent. Also, retail sales continued to be weak at about 2.7 per cent, much below the 5 per cent forecast. Domestic consumption, the great desire of Chinese policymakers, remained sluggish. The spokesperson for the NBS put up a brave face while spinning these numbers as short-term bumps on the road. He raised the possibility of global stagflation and its negative impact on China to possibly justify weak numbers in the future. But is this slowdown just a blip in the impressive rise of China in the past three decades? I’m not sure. There are three transitions underway in China right now. It is difficult for nations to pull off any one of these in normal times. To attempt three simultaneously is ambitious. It is most likely to fail. Anyway, back to these transitions.The first transition started a few years back. This was forced on it because economics doesn’t bow to the party's diktats. China is finding it difficult to transition from a manufacturing-heavy, investment-led economic model to a consumption-driven one. This couldn’t be avoided. There would always be a limit to the world’s capacity to absorb China’s imports. Also, as China grew richer, it knew its low-cost edge in manufacturing would wither away. So after a few years of structural overinvestment in building capacity - the bridges to nowhere, the ghost cities, empty airports and other excesses - it had to pivot to a consumption-driven economy. It did try to delay the inevitable transition by aiming to export this overcapacity through its belt and road initiative. But after the initial hoopla, most countries have come to see it as what it is. A debt trap. So, this transition was necessary to move away from growth predicated on size and scale of investment to a more sustainable model of higher quality. But this is proving to be difficult. The history of unproductive investments has led to a debt build-up in the system (the debt to GDP ratio in China is over 300 per cent) and a drag on productivity that will continue for a long time. The state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that led this investment-driven growth are in a debt trap, and many continue to stay afloat by evergreening their loans. New productive investments have suffered because of this. People aren’t sure of their future, so instead of consumption, there’s an increase in domestic savings. Also, the pandemic and the recent lockdowns haven’t helped consumption growth. This is going to be a long, painful road.The second transition has been brought upon it because of its confidence in creating a ‘patterned’ society based on a premeditated design of the society. The prime example of ignoring spontaneous order was its plan to control the population through a one-child policy. China is now past the peak of its demographic dividend. The Labour force in China peaked in 2015 at around 800 million. It has now shrunk to 783 million, almost what it was in 2010. In the next 15 years, this is projected to go down to about 650 million. The stupid notion of the population as a liability has meant a rapidly shrinking and ageing workforce. The government has now reversed the one-child policy with a two-child policy without learning that such top-down interventions worsen things. Other similar ideas like patterned migration from villages to specific cities, controlling information flow for its citizens and taking some lofty top-down emission targets that have contributed to a serious energy crisis right now will also turn out the same way. The fault isn’t in their stars but in their ideology.  The final transition is the more perplexing one. This was articulated in a speech by Xi Jinping on August 17, 2021, where he introduced the notion of ‘common prosperity.’ This marked the most cogent articulation of Xi’s shift towards greater ideological rigidity. The days of economic growth based on ideological compromises were coming to an end. As Xi mentioned, ‘common prosperity is the essential requirement of socialism and an important feature of Chinese-style modernization’ and China ‘must resolutely prevent polarization, promote common wealth, and achieve social harmony and stability.’ The crackdown on the consumer tech sector (virtually destroying Jac Ma’s empire) and the ‘three red lines’ drawn for the real estate sector, that has disproportionate weight on its economy, should be viewed in this backdrop. It is unclear whether this is a real commitment to ideology or a way to consolidate his position as dictator-for-life by appealing to the masses. But Xi has doubled down on this, as seen by his remarks at the World Economic Forum:"We will first make the pie bigger and then divide it properly through reasonable institutional arrangements. As a rising tide lifts all boats, everyone will get a fair share from development, and development gains will benefit all our people in a more substantial and equitable way,"In my (very broad) view, Xi has concluded that China might have peaked in economic growth. You start talking about redistribution and ‘dividing it properly’ when you know the pie won’t grow at the same rate as it was earlier. Importantly, I also suspect this is the reason why Xi is acting like a bully in the neighbourhood. If you know you have hit the peak of your geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage, you will be foolish to let the moment pass without maximising your gains.Some might argue furnishing other economic data that this ‘peaking’ theory isn’t true. China is still a global manufacturing engine. Its trade surplus has ballooned in the past year suggesting the world is hungrier for its goods. And so on. There’s this insightful column by Michael Pettis in FT that I will quote, which puts in perspective the record trade surpluses that China has been notching up in recent months while making these three transitions together. Pettis writes:Contrary to what many assume, the country’s burgeoning trade surplus is not a symptom of manufacturing prowess, nor is it evidence of a culture of thrift. It is instead a consequence of the great difficulty China has had in rebalancing its domestic economy and reining in its soaring debt. This is because the very conditions that explain stagnant domestic consumption also explain the rapid growth in Chinese exports relative to imports.Beijing has known the solution to this problem for years. In order to control soaring debt and the non-productive investment it funds, it had to rebalance the distribution of income by enough that growth would be driven mainly by rising consumption, as is the case in most other economies. But this requires a politically-difficult restructuring of the economy in which a larger share of total income — as much as 10-15 percentage points of GDP — is transferred from local governments to Chinese households.This is why the trade surplus matters. In recent years, Beijing has tried to slow the growth in debt by reducing non-productive investment in property and infrastructure. This year, as we saw with Evergrande, Beijing came down hard on the property sector.If a rising share of China’s total income had been going to ordinary households, the resulting reduction in investment by property developers could have been balanced by a rise in consumption. But that’s not what’s happened. In the past two years, partly as a consequence of the Covid pandemic, growth in wages has actually lagged behind growth in GDP. The share Chinese workers have received of what they produce has declined rather than increased, and with it so has the share they are able to consume.Rising exports are usually a good thing, but for countries like China, rising trade surpluses are not. In this case they are symptoms of deep and persistent imbalances in the domestic distribution of income. Until the country is able to reverse these imbalances, something which has proven politically very difficult, these large surpluses are just the obverse of attempts by Beijing to control debt, and so they will persist.For India, all of this is a golden opportunity. China will remain busy with these transitions that it has wrought upon itself. The jury is still out on whether it will have a soft landing on them. Global businesses that started seeking more resilient and cost-effective alternatives to China during COVID-19, are now convinced that they must employ a ‘China + 1’ model to safeguard their long-term interests. There are only that many economies that have the labour pool, capital and a business environment that can take advantage of this shift away from China, however gradual. To me, it might be faster than what we all anticipate. And it will pass India by if it doesn’t stay alert to its possibilities.There is a high likelihood of a golden decade ahead for MSMEs in India if it plays its cards right. A long overdue factor market reforms (possible at the state level), kickstarting a government capex cycle that will instil confidence in the private sector to follow suit, not overdoing aatmanirbhar Bharat beyond the rhetoric and remaining an open and liberal democracy that convinces others that it will have sufficient checks and balances to not lose its way. These are the basic block and tackle moves to capitalise on the opportunity. Because the only lesson to learn from a possible China misstep is that overdetermined leadership and top-down economic thinking eventually fail.Course Advertisement: The Sept 2022 intake of Takshashila’s Graduate Certificate in Public Policy programme ends soon! Visit this link to apply.India Policy Watch #1: A Potent CocktailInsights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneThe ongoing political saga in Delhi over a new (now suspended) excise policy is a heady cocktail for policy analysts. The cocktail’s components include a tussle over alcohol licenses, Maximum Retail Price (MRP), privatisation, regulation, allegations of corruption, rent-seeking, and political contestation.The political motivations behind the current actions are quite clear. But it might be useful to look at the under-discussed policy aspects of the debate. Useful, because it’s not the last time we have seen a stand-off on alcohol policy.The underlying motivation for the Delhi Excise Policy 2021-22 is to increase government revenue. Although we know that the best way to do that is lower the tax rate and broaden the base, India’s poor economic performance over the last decade has made it politically risky to bring additional people under the tax net. Hence, states are opting for the easier—and counterproductive—option instead: raise tax rates and increase non-tax revenue. With the GST taking away the power to raise tax rates on most items unilaterally, state governments are exploring other options. One lucrative option is liquor excise. The Indian State heavily regulates the production, sale, and consumption of alcohol. Streamlining the licensing policies for the production and sale of alcohol can generate non-tax revenue, while higher overboard consumption can result in an increase in tax revenue (excise duty). One reform, two revenue handles. This is why the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) governments in Delhi and Punjab have set their eyes on this sector. Moreover, raising the fees on government-provided private goods doesn’t fit its existing political persona. To be fair, the Delhi Excise Policy 2021-22 is fairly progressive. It states that the policy's objectives are to augment the state excise duty revenue, simplify liquor pricing, prevent duty evasion, and transform the liquor trade commensurate with Delhi’s position as a city of global importance. To achieve these objectives, the policy aims to award new licenses for alcohol sale, dividing the city into 32 zones, with a fixed number of shops allowed per zone. It aims to end government-run booze shops, distributing those licenses to private players instead. To foster competition, it allows shops to offer discounts below the Maximum Retail Price (MRP), permits shops to stay open till 3 am, and authorises bars to serve alcohol in licensed open spaces. A report in the Business Standard captured the view of a craft beer brand as follows:“The new excise policy is facing teething issues like any other but we find the policy very good since there is now a lot more opportunity to showcase our brand. Earlier, stores were dingy with no proper brand display, but now the stores have a mandated minimum floor area and are women-friendly. This helps with visibility of our brand.” There were quite a few initial hiccups. Some dealers started giving deep discounts to capture the market. That led the government to change the no-MRP policy to a “discount only up to 25% of MRP” policy. After that, retailers started offering “buy one bottle, get another free”. And hence, big dealers could attract more customers, while the smaller ones were finding it difficult to compete. Some licenses didn’t attract any buyers at all. These seem to be transient-state shocks. The steady-state promised to be much better. Alas.Reforming a tightly regulated policy area in which powerful rent-seekers have flourished for decades is not easy. The old status quo has powerful defenders. Like many other reforms, the benefits are widely dispersed while the costs are concentrated. And so, many existing licensees have ganged up on the government. We can be sure that some of these licensees also have political connections, which they have used to oppose the policy. There is also the additional issue specific to alcohol — any policy that is seen to liberalise its sale becomes an easy target for conservative moralisers. Further, the Delhi government made a mistake by pausing the policy implementation amidst the criticism.Then came the political pushback. Despite the government’s revenue increasing by 27 per cent after the policy was put in place, some notional revenue loss of the “2G spectrum allocation” vintage has surfaced. There are also charges of favouritism and corruption in the allocation of new licenses, an issue so sensational that it requires the combined might of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate. (Sarcasm is intended.) Many state governments must be eying this Delhi experiment with excise policy reform. Moreover, this case illustrates the difficulty in reforming sub-optimal licensing arrangements. As for the Delhi government, are they reaping what they sowed in the name of anti-corruption?Global Policy Watch #2: Xi Jinping’s Thoughts Global issues and their implications for India— RSJTalking of China (and I’m intruding into Pranay’s area of expertise), I came across this wonderful blog, globalinequality by Branko Milanovic. In his latest post, he writes about what he learnt from reading a translated version of the book, ' Anecdotes and Sayings of Xi Jinping’. Milanovic writes:The undisputable emphasis in the “Chinese” part of the book is on the matters of governance. By giving numerous examples from Chinese history of rulers and their aides who cared about people’s welfare, lived modestly (“One should be the first when taking care of state affairs, the last when taking care of personal affairs”), strove to improve themselves morally and educationally, Xi proposes a theory of governance that is based on virtue of rulers and results achieved, not procedure. While Western theories emphasize the procedural aspect (how is one selected to be the ruler, is it by a well-established democratic process or not), Xi’s concern is with the results. The tacit premise is not to discuss how one is selected to rule….The success is defined in terms of improvement in the well-being and happiness of people whom they govern.…In all cases of a good rule, there is the emphasis on individual characteristics of rulers. What is required, they (the editors) write, is “morality inside and virtue outside”; what is sought is the rule of virtue, and by virtue.  But how to bring about such a rule? Obviously, by having moral rulers. Hence--the reader begins to realize--Xi’s ideological campaign: if Confucian-cum-Communist  ideology is disregarded and everything is simply esteemed in terms of money and economic success, there cannot be a moral and virtuous rule.The key question, unanswered in the book, then becomes: is it possible to achieve an educational and moral “rejuvenation” under the current “normal” conditions of capitalism where money-making is held by the majority of the population to be the highest objective revealing also one’s individual worth?Xi is fighting against the spirit of the times, and while his struggle may be driven by a genuine desire to create a morally superior China, the odds of succeeding in this endeavor are, I am afraid, not particularly high. This is, to put it mildly, a brilliant summary of the ideological battle Xi has picked up and his odds of winning it. I tend to agree with its conclusion.   India Policy Watch #2: Value Addition, Not Import SubstitutionInsights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay Kotasthane“Import Substitution” is still in vogue. One would have thought that the unsuccessful pursuit of this goal since independence would’ve discredited it. That doesn’t seem to be the case.Every few weeks, we come across policies targeting import substitution, implicitly if not explicitly. Just a few days back came the rumour that the government plans to ban Chinese phones priced under Rs 12,000 in order to give a leg up to domestic champions. Thankfully, unnamed sources in the government have denied this story for now. Even so, import tariff hikes and industrial policies continue to chase the illusory target of import substitution. Some policies for display fabs and drones explicitly mention import substitution as the target. Of late, this idea has morphed into targets for maximising value addition per unit of exports. Now, readers of this newsletter know what we think of this idea. In edition #161, we had warned that Atmanirbhar Bharat is approaching a wrong turn. We have also cautioned against the proliferation of Production Linked Incentives (PLIs) beyond a few critical sectors. I will make the case against import substitution in this edition using another example. Look at the chart below, which shows the import profile of a country for the year 2020. This country’s largest import by value is Integrated Circuits (chips) at 18.8%. The total import bill is $259 billion. Can you guess the country? If you need a hint, here’s one: as exports rise, imports also rise. The world’s top two exporters are China and the US. And the world’s top two importers are also the US and China.The answer is neither the US nor China. India can be ruled out because we know that our biggest import is crude oil. Here’s another hint. Look at this country’s export profile for the same year. Its biggest export is again integrated circuits, at 36.9% out of a total exported value of $374 billion. Do you have an answer now? The right answer might surprise you. This is the typical year-wise trade profile of a country that is acclaimed as the world’s semiconductor superpower: Taiwan! We forget that despite its unmatched prowess in contracted chip manufacturing, Taiwan is not even close to being self-sufficient. Some Taiwanese companies import chips, do value addition through packaging and testing, and then export the final commodity. A portion of the imported chips goes into the machines that are used to manufacture chips by the famed Taiwanese chip foundries. The fundamental message is that imports are critical to exports, even in sophisticated economies. PLI scheme began with the aim of promoting India’s exports. But my sense is that import substitution has displaced exports as the primary goal. How else does one explain the simultaneous increase in import tariffs and a phased manufacturing programme (PMP) that aims to increase tariffs on imported components? Atmanirbhar Bharat needs to return to its goal of creating competitive manufacturing capabilities in India by allowing companies to start, grow, and close with considerably less bureaucratic friction. Shielding domestic component makers from international competition on the one hand, and subsidising end-equipment manufacturers on the other will end up helping neither. Equipment manufacturers will merely make expensive, poor-quality products. Some others will use the production subsidies to import components at higher prices, with no net benefit to them or the consumers. As RSJ writes in the first section, this decade is India’s to lose. Imports aren’t evil. Target value maximisation, not import substitution. Counterproductive policies targeting import substitution won’t help. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] Why the MRP should be abolished. A 2015 article by Anupam Manur remains relevant. [Paper] PIIE has a good paper with a framework to analyse the world’s dependence on China for strategic minerals.[Book] Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much by Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir is a useful read. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

Happy Independence Day!- Pranay Kotasthane and RSJThis newsletter can often seem pessimistic about India. That isn’t true, though. Every year, on Independence Day, we remind ourselves and our readers why we write this newsletter. This is how we ended the Independence Day edition of 2020:“What we have achieved so far is precious. That’s worth reminding ourselves today. We will go back to writing future editions lamenting our state of affairs.We will do so because we know it’s worth it.”  This year we thought it would be fun (?) to run through every year since 1947 and ask ourselves what happened in the year that had long-term repercussions for our nation. This kind of thing runs a serious risk. It can get tedious and all too familiar. Most of us know the landmark events of recent history and what they meant for the nation. Maybe. Maybe not. We’ve given an honest try (of over 8000 words) to see if there’s a different way of looking at these familiar events and their impact on us. Here we go.1947 - 1960: Sense Of A Beginning 1947Perhaps the most significant “What, if?” question for independent India surfaced on 17th August 1947 when the Radcliffe Line was announced. The partition of the Indian subcontinent has cast a long shadow. What if it had never happened? What if Nehru-Jinnah-Gandhi were able to strike a modus vivendi within a one-federation framework? These questions surface every year around independence.The indelible human tragedy of the partition aside, would an Akhand Bharat have served its citizens better? We don’t think so. We agree with Ambedkar’s assessment of this question. In Pakistan or the Partition of India, he approaches the question with detachment and realism, concluding that the forces of “communal malaise” had progressed to such an extent that resisting a political division would have led to a civil war, making everyone worse off. The partition must have been handled better without the accompanying humanitarian disaster. But on the whole, the partition was inevitable by 1947.“That the Muslim case for Pakistan is founded on sentiment is far from being a matter of weakness; it is really its strong point. It does not need deep understanding of politics to know that the workability of a constitution is not a matter of theory. It is a matter of sentiment. A constitution, like clothes, must suit as well as please. If a constitution does not please, then however perfect it may be, it will not work. To have a constitution which runs counter to the strong sentiments of a determined section is to court disaster if not to invite rebellion.” [Read the entire book here]1948What if Mahatma Gandhi wasn’t killed that year? How would the course of our history change? Gandhi spoke like an idealist and worked like a realist. He was possibly the most aware of the gap between the lofty ideals of our constitution and the reality of the Indian minds then. He knew the adoption of the constitution was only half the work done. He’d likely have devoted the rest of his life to building a liberal India at the grassroots level. His death pushed a particular stream of right-wing Hindu consciousness underground. We still carry the burden of that unfinished work.1949The Constituent Assembly met for the first time in December 1946. By November 26th 1949, this assembly adopted a constitution for India. Even a half-constructed flyover in Koramangala has taken us five years. For more context, Pakistan’s Constituent Assembly began work on 10th August 1947, and their first constitution came into force in March 1956, only to be abrogated two years later. India’s founding fathers and mothers were acutely aware that they were elite, unelected, and unrepresentative of the median Indian. They dared to imagine a new nation-state while grappling with that period's harsh economic, social, and political realities. Their work should inspire us to strengthen, improve, and rebuild—but never to give up on—the Republic of India.For more, check out the miracle that is India’s Constitution in our Republic Day 2021 special edition.1950We have written about our Constitution a number of times. It is an inspiring and audacious document in its ambition to shape a modern nation. It has its flaws. Some consider it too liberal; others think it makes the State overbearing. Some find it too long; others feel it comes up short. This may all be true. However, there is no doubt our constitution has strengthened our democracy, protected the weak and continues to act as a tool for social change. It is our North Star. And a damn good one at that. 1951Few post-independence institutions have stood the test of time as the Finance Commission (FC), first established in 1951. In federal systems, horizontal and vertical imbalances in revenue generation and expenditure functions are commonplace. Closing the gap requires an impartial institution that is well-regarded by various levels of government and the people. The Finance Commission is that institution.It’s not as if it didn’t face any challenges. As a constitutional body established under article 280 of the Constitution, it was sidelined by an extra-constitutional and powerful Planning Commission until 2014. But we have had 15 FCs in total, and each key tax revenue-sharing recommendation has become government policy.1952Our Constitution adopted a universal adult franchise as the basis for elections. Every citizen was to be part of the democratic project. There was to be no bar on age, sex, caste or education. And this was to be done in one of the most unequal societies in the world. The ambition was breathtaking. To put this in context, women were allowed to vote in Switzerland only in 1971. Not only did we aim for this, but we also moved heaven and earth to achieve it in 1952. In his book India After Gandhi, Ram Guha describes the efforts of the government officials led by the first Election Commissioner, Sukumar Sen, to reach the last man or woman for their ballot. The elites may lament vote bank politics or cash for votes scams and question the wisdom of universal franchise. But we shouldn’t have had it any other way. And, for the record, our people have voted with remarkable sophistication in our short independent history. 1953 For a new nation-state, the Republic of India punched above its weight in bringing hostilities on the Korean peninsula to an end. Not only did the Indian government’s work shape the Armistice Agreement, but it also chaired a Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission (NNRC) that was set up to decide the future of nearly 20,000 prisoners of war from both sides. This experience during the Cold War strengthened India’s advocacy of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).  1954Article 25 guaranteed the freedom of conscience and the freedom to profess, practice, and propagate religion to all citizens. But how does one define a religious practice? And can a practice under the garb of religion breach the boundary of individual rights or public morality? This is a familiar conflict zone in secular States and would inevitably show up in India because everything in India can be construed as a religious practice. Like Ambedkar said during the constituent assembly debates:“The religious conceptions in this country are so vast that they cover every aspect of life from birth to death…there is nothing extraordinary in saying that we ought to strive hereafter to limit the definition of religion in such a manner that we shall not extend it beyond beliefs and such rituals as may be connected with ceremonials which are essentially religious..."In 1954, the Supreme Court gave a landmark judgment on what constitutes a religious practice in what’s known as the Shirur Math case. It held that the term religion would cover all practices integral to that religion. Further, the Court will determine what practice will be deemed essential with reference to doctrines within that religion itself.This test of ‘essentiality’ in religion has kept the public, the legislature and the courts busy since (entry of women in Sabarimala, headscarf in Islam, to name two). The outcome has bent towards individual liberty in most contexts, but the ambiguity in the definition of essential means it could go the other way too.1955Another wild "What, if” moment that we like to recall relates to Milton Friedman’s visit to the Indian finance ministry in 1955. What shape would India’s economy have taken had his seminal document “A Memorandum to the Government of India 1955” been heeded?In this note, Friedman gets to the root of India’s macroeconomic problems—an overburdened investment policy, restrictive policies towards the private sector, erratic monetary policy, and a counterproductive exchange control regime. Being bullish about India’s prospects was courageous when most observers wrote epitaphs about the grand Indian experiment. But Friedman was hopeful and critical both.The Indian government, for its part, was humble enough to seek the advice of foreigners from opposing schools of thought. At the same time, it was too enamoured by the Soviet command and control model. In fact, many items from Friedman’s note can be repurposed as economic reforms even today.Here’re our points from Friedman’s note.1956The idea of One Nation, One ‘X’ (language, election, song, tax, choose any other) is both powerful and seductive. It is not new, however. Back in the 50s, there was a view that we must not strengthen any identity that divides us. So when the question of reorganisation of the colonial provinces into new states came up, an argument was made that it must be done on factors other than language. Nehru, ever the modernist, thought the creation of language-based states would lead us down the path of ethnic strife. The example of nation-states in Europe built on language in the 19th century and the two devastating world wars thereafter were too recent then. So, he demurred.Agitation, hunger strikes and deaths followed before we chose language as the primary basis for reorganising the states. It was perhaps the best decision taken by us in the 50s. As the years since have shown, only a polity assured of its heritage and identity will voluntarily accept diversity. The melding of our diversity into a single identity cannot be a top-down imposition. We should never forget this.1957India’s economic strategy of state-led industrialisation through deficit financing in pursuit of import substitution took off with the Second Five-Year Plan. Heavy industries needed imported machinery, inflating India’s import bill. Since the exchange rate was pegged to the British pound, it meant that Indian exports became pricier. This imbalance between rising imports and flagging exports was financed by running down the foreign exchange reserves. By 1957, India witnessed its first foreign exchange crisis. This event had a significant effect on India’s economy. Instead of devaluing the rupee, the government opted for foreign exchange budgeting - every investment in a project needed government approval for the foreign exchange required to buy foreign inputs. The immediate crisis in 1957 led to controls that worsened India’s economic prospects over the next 35 years.1958The government nationalised all insurance companies a couple of years earlier. India hadn’t gotten into a socialist hell yet, so this was a bit of a surprise. The proximate cause was a fraud that few private life insurers had committed by misusing the policyholders’ funds to help their industrialist friends. A run-of-the-mill white-collar crime that should have been dealt with by the criminal justice system. But the government viewed it as a market failure and moved to nationalise the entire industry. It would take another 45 years for private players to come back to insurance. Insurance penetration in India meanwhile remained among the lowest in the world.  Also, in 1958, Feroze Gandhi took to the floor of Lok Sabha to expose how LIC, the state insurer, had diverted its funds to help Haridas Mundhra, a Calcutta-based businessman. The same crime that private insurers had done.The government would repeat this pattern of getting involved where there was no market failure. The outcomes would inevitably turn out to be worse. Seven decades later, we remain instinctively socialist and wary of capital. Our first reaction to something as trifling as a surge price by Ola or a service charge levied by restaurants is to ask the State to interfere.1959“The longest guest of the Indian government”, the 14th Dalai Lama pre-empted the Chinese government’s plans for his arrest and escaped to India. Not only did India provide asylum, but it also became home to more than a hundred thousand Tibetans. Because of the bold move by the Indian government in 1959, the Central Tibetan Administration continues its struggle as a Nation and a State in search of regaining control over their Country to this day. This event also changed India-China relations for the decades to come.1960Search as hard as we might; we hardly got anything worth discussing for this year. Maybe we were all sitting smugly waiting for an avalanche of crisis to come our way. Steel plants, dams and other heavy industries were being opened. The budget outlay for agriculture was reduced. We were talking big on the international stage about peace and non-alignment. But if you had looked closer, things were turning pear-shaped. The many dreams of our independence were turning sour.The 60s: Souring Of The Dream1961The Indian Army marched into Goa in December 1961. The 450-year Portuguese colonial rule ended, and the last colonial vestige in India was eliminated. It took this long because Portugal’s dictator Antonio Salazar stuck to his guns on controlling Portuguese colonies in the subcontinent, unlike the British and the French. Portugal’s membership in NATO further made it difficult for the Indian government to repeat the operations in Hyderabad and Junagadh. Nevertheless, that moment eventually arrived in 1961. This was also the year when India’s first indigenous aircraft, the HAL HF-24 Marut, took its first flight. Made in Bengaluru by German designer Kurt Tank, the aircraft was one of the first fighter jets made outside the developed world. The aircraft served well in the war that came a decade later. It never lived up to its promises, but it became a matter of immense pride and confidence for a young nation-state.1962Among the lowest points in the history of independent India. We’ve written about our relationship with China many times in the past editions. The 1962 war left a deep impact on our psyche. We didn’t recover for the rest of the decade. The only good thing out of it was the tempering of idealism in our approach to international relations. That we take a more realist stance these days owes its origins to the ‘betrayal’ of 1962.1963ISRO launched the first sounding rocket in November 1963. Over the years, this modest beginning blossomed into a programme with multiple launch vehicles. The satellite programmes also took off a few years later, making India a mighty player in the space sector. 1964If you told anyone alive in 1964 that less than 60 years later, Nehru would be blamed for all that was wrong with India by a substantial segment of its population, they would have laughed you out of the room. But here we are in 2022, and there’s never a day that passes without a WhatsApp forward that talks about Nehru’s faults. It seems inevitable that by the time we celebrate the centenary of our independence, he would be a borderline reviled figure in our history. But that would be an aberration. In the long arc of history, he will find his due as a flawed idealist who laid the foundation of modern India. 1964 was the end of an era.1965As the day when Hindi would become the sole official language of the Indian Union approached, the anti-Hindi agitation in the Madras presidency morphed into riots. Many people died in the protests, and it led to the current equilibrium on language policy. The “one State, one language” project moved to the back burner, even as Hindi became an important link language across the country. The lesson was the same as in the case of the 1956 states reorganisation: melding our diversity into a single identity cannot be a top-down imposition.1966The two wars in the decade's first half, the inefficient allocation of capital driven by the second and third five-year plans, and the consecutive monsoon failure meant India was on the brink in 1966. The overnight devaluation of the Rupee by over 50 per cent, the timely help with food grains from the US and some providence pulled us back from it. The green revolution followed, and we have remained self-sufficient in food since.The experience of being on the brink taught us nothing. We still believe in the Pigouvian theory of market failure, where government policies are expected to deliver optimality.  Strangely, the idea that we reform only in crisis has only strengthened. There cannot be worse ways to change oneself than under the shadow of a crisis. But we have made a virtue out of it.1967This was the year when the Green Revolution took baby steps, and the Ehlrichian prediction about India’s impending doom was put to rest. But it was also the year when the Indian government made a self-goal by adopting a policy called items reserved for manufacture exclusively by the small-scale sector. By reserving whole product lines for manufacturing by small industries, this policy kept Indian firms small and uncompetitive. And like all bad ideas, it had a long life. The last 20 items on this list were removed only in April 2015. We wrote about this policy here. 1968In the past 75 years, we have reserved some of our worst public policies for the education sector. We have an inverted pyramid. A handful of tertiary educational institutions produce world-class graduates at the top. On the other end, we have a total failure to provide quality primary education to the masses. It is not because of a lack of intent. The National Education Policy (NEP) that first came up in 1968 is full of ideas, philosophy and a desire to take a long-term view about education in India. But it was unmoored from the economic or social reality of the nation. We often say here that we shouldn’t judge a policy based on its intentions. That there’s no such thing as a good policy but bad implementation because thinking about what can work is part of policy itself. NEP is Exhibit A in favour of this argument.1969 The nationalisation of 14 private-sector banks was a terrible assault on economic freedom under the garb of serving the public interest. The sudden announcement of a change in ownership of these banks was challenged in the courts, but the government managed to thwart it with an ordinance. Fifty years later, we still have low credit uptake even as governments continue to recapitalise loss-making banks with taxpayer money.1970The dominant economic thinking at the beginning of the 70s in India placed the State at the centre of everything. But that wasn’t how the world was moving. There was a serious re-examination of the relationship between the State and the market happening elsewhere. The eventual shift to a deregulated, small government economic model would happen by the decade's end. This shift mostly passed India by. But there were a few voices who questioned the state orthodoxy and, in some ways, sowed the intellectual seeds for liberalisation in future. In 1970, Jagdish Bhagwati and Padma Desai published their monograph, India: Planning for Industrialisation, which argued that our economic policies since independence had crippled us. It showed with data how central planning, import substitution, public sector-led industrial policy and license raj have failed. But it found no takers. In fact, we doubled down on these failed policies for the rest of the decade. It was a tragedy foretold. What if someone had gone against the consensus and paid attention to that paper? That dissent could perhaps have been the greatest service to the nation. It is useful to remember this today when any scepticism about government policies is met with scorn. Dissent is good. The feeblest of the voice might just be right.The 70s: Losing The Plot1971Kissinger visited China in July 1971 via Pakistan. Responding to the changing world order, India and the USSR signed an Indo–Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation in August of that year. India had become an ally of the USSR. Four months later, the India-Pakistan war pitted India and the USSR against Pakistan, China, and the US. The Indian strategic community came to internalise USSR as a super-reliable partner and the West as a supporter of India’s foes. It took another three decades, and the collapse of the USSR, for a change in this thinking. Even today, Russia finds massive support in the Indian strategic establishment. We had problematised this love for Russia here. 1972India won the 1972 war with Pakistan and liberated Bangladesh. India’s unilateral action stopped a humanitarian disaster. The victory was decisive, and the two parties met in Simla to agree on the way forward. This should have been a slam dunk for India in resolving festering issues on the international boundary, Kashmir and the role of the third parties. But international diplomacy is a two-level game, and Bhutto played that to his advantage. We explained this in edition 30. We paid a high price for giving away that win to Bhutto.1973The Kesavananda Bharti verdict of the Supreme Court rescued the Republic of India from a rampaging authoritarian. The basic structure doctrine found a nice balance to resolve the tension between constitutional immutability and legislative authority to amend the constitution. Bibhu Pani discussed this case in more detail here. 1974You are the State. Here are your crimes. You force import substitution, you regulate the currency, you misallocate capital, you let the public sector and a handful of licensed private players produce inferior quality products at a high cost, you raise the marginal tax rate at the highest level to 97 per cent, you run a large current account deficit, and you cannot control Rupee depreciation.Result?People find illegal ways to bring in foreign goods, currency and gold. And so was born the villain of every urban Bollywood film of the 70s. And a career option for a capitalist-minded kid like me. The Smuggler.But the State isn’t the criminal here. The smuggler is. And the State responded with a draconian law to beat all others. An act the knowledge of whose expanded form would serve kids well in those school quizzes of the 80s. COFEPOSA — The Conservation of Foreign Exchange and Prevention of Smuggling Act. A predatory state's defining feature is how it forces ordinary citizens to do unlawful activities. COFEPOSA was the mother of such laws. It has spawned many children. 1975This blank editorial by the Indian Express says it all. 1976We view our population as a core problem. The politicians, the public servants and the ordinary citizens share this view. We don’t want to acknowledge our governance deficit. Calling population a problem allows us to shirk the responsibility of running a functioning State. We have written about the flaw in thinking about the population as a problem on many occasions.How far could we go to control the population? Well, in 1976, during the peak of the Emergency, the State decided to sterilise male citizens against their wishes. This madness ended when the Emergency was lifted. But even today calls for population control keep coming back. 1977The first non-Congress union government was an important milestone for the Indian Republic. While Morarji Desai’s government did reverse the worst excesses of the Emergency rule, its economic policies were less successful. This period went on to witness a demonetisation in search of black money (2016 from the future says Hi!), and the same old counter-productive policies in search of self-reliance.1978Despite all available evidence that statist socialism was an abject failure, the Janata government that came to power decided to double down on it. One of the great ideas of the time was to force MNCs to reduce their stake in their Indian subsidiaries to below 40 per cent. A handful agreed, but the large corporations quit India. One of those who left was IBM in 1978. The many existing installations of IBM computers needed services and maintenance. In a delightful case of unintended consequences, this led to the nationalisation of IBM’s services division (later called CMC). Domestic companies started to serve this niche. Soon there were the likes of Infosys, Wipro and HCL building a business on this. CMC provided a good training ground for young engineers. And so, the Indian IT services industry got underway. It would change the lives of educated Indians forever.1979In a classic case of violating the Tinbergen rule, the Mandal Commission recommended that the reservation policy should be used to address relative deprivation. While the earlier reservations for oppressed castes stood on firm ground as a means for addressing unconscionable historical wrongs, the Mandal Commission stretched the logic too far. Its recommendation would eventually make reservation policy the go-to solution for any group that could flex its political muscles. We wrote about it here. 1980After ditching the Janata experiment and running out of ideas to keep Jan Sangh going, the BJP was formed. It wasn’t a momentous political occasion of any sort then. A party constitution that aimed for Gandhian socialism and offered vague promises of a uniform civil code and nationalism didn’t excite many. Everything else that would propel the party in later years was to be opportunistic add-ons to the ideology. The founding leaders, Advani and Vajpayee, would have been shocked if you told them what the party would be like, four decades later.The 80s: A Million Mutinies Now1981This year witnessed a gradual shift away from doctrinaire socialism in economic policymaking. “The Indira Gandhi government lifted restrictions on the expansion of production, permitted new private borrowing abroad, and continued the liberalisation of import controls,” wrote Walter Anderson. The government also “allowed” some price rises, leading to increased production of key input materials. The government also permitted foreign companies to compete in drilling rights in India. All in all, a year that witnessed changes for the better. 1982The great textile strike of Bombay in 1982 was inevitable. The trade unions had gotten so powerful that there was a competitive race to the bottom on who could be more militant. Datta Samant emerged intent on breaking the monopoly of RMMS on the city's workers. And he did this with ever spiralling demands from mill owners in a sector that was already bloated with overheads and facing competition from far eastern economies. There was no way to meet these demands. The owners locked the mills and left. Never to come back. The old, abandoned mills remained. The workers remained. Without jobs, without prospects and with kids who grew up angry and unemployed. The rise of Shiv Sena, political goondaism and a malevolent form of underworld followed. Bombay changed forever. It was all inevitable.1983The Nellie massacre in Assam and the Dhilwan bus massacre in Punjab represent the year 1983. Things seemed really dark back then. It seemed that the doomsayers would be proved right about India. Eventually, though, the Indian Republic prevailed. 1984Her Sikh bodyguards assassinated India Gandhi. The botched Punjab policy of the previous five years came a full circle with it. An unforgivable backlash against innocent Sikhs followed. A month later, deadly gas leaked out of a Union Carbide factory in Bhopal, killing and paralysing thousands. 1984 will rank among the worst years of our republic. There were two silver linings in retrospect. One, we would learn to manage secessionist movements better from the harrowing Punjab experience. Two, had Indira continued, would we have had 1991? Our guess is no.1985This was an eventful year in retrospect. Texas Instruments set up shop in Bangalore. It was to begin one of modern India’s true success stories on the world stage. This was also the year when the Anti-defection law transformed the relationship between the voter and her representative. Political parties became all-powerful, and people’s representatives were reduced to political party agents. We have written about this changing dynamic here. This was also the year when the then commerce minister, VP Singh, visited Malaysia. The visit was significant for India because it served as a reference point for Singh when he visited that country again in 1990, now as the Prime minister. Surprised by Malaysia’s transformation in five years, he asked his team to prepare a strategy paper for economic reforms. This culminated in the “M” document, which became a blueprint for reforms when the time for the idea eventually came in 1991.1986Who is a citizen of India?  This vexing question roiled Assam in the early 80s. The student union protests against the widespread immigration of Bangladeshis turned violent, and things had turned ugly by 1985. The Assam accord of 1985 sought to settle the state's outstanding issues,, including deporting those who arrived after 1971 and a promise to amend the Citizenship Act. The amended Citizenship Act of 1986 restricted the citizenship of India to those born before 1987 only if either of their parents were born in India. That meant children of couples who were illegal immigrants couldn’t be citizens of India simply by virtue of their birth in India. That was that, or so we thought.But once you’ve amended the definition of who can be a citizen of India, you have let the genie out. The events of 2019 will attest to that.1987Rajiv Gandhi’s ill-fated attempt to replicate Indira Gandhi’s success through military intervention in another country began in 1987. In contrast to the 1971 involvement, where Indian forces had the mass support of the local populace, the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) got itself embroiled in a bitter Sri Lankan civil war. Not only did this involvement end in a failure, it eventually led to Rajiv Gandhi’s brutal murder in a terrorist attack. The policy lesson internalised by the strategic community was that India must stay far away from developing and deploying forces overseas.1988Most government communication is propaganda in disguise. However, there are those rare occasions when government messaging transcends the ordinary. In 1988, we saw that rare bird during the peak era of a single government channel running on millions of black and white TV sets across India. A government ad that meant something to all of us and that would remain with us forever. Mile Sur Mera Tumhara got everything right - the song, the singers, the storyline and that ineffable thing called the idea of India. No jingoism, no chest beating about being the best country in the world and no soppy sentimentalism. Just a simple message - we might all sing our own tunes, but we are better together. This is a timeless truth. No nation in history has become better by muting the voice of a section of their own people. Mile Sur Mera Tumhara, Toh Sur Bane Hamara, indeed.  19891989 will be remembered as the year when the Indian government capitulated to the demands of Kashmiri terrorists in the Rubaiya Sayeed abduction case. It would spark off a series of kidnappings and act as a shot in the arm of radicals. 1990VP Singh dusted off the decade-long copy of the Mandal Commission report and decided to implement it. This wasn’t an ideological revolution. It was naked political opportunism. However, three decades later, the dual impact of economic reforms and social engineering has increased social mobility than ever before. Merit is still a matter of debate in India. But two generations of affirmative action in many of the progressive states have shown the fears of merit being compromised were overblown. The task is far from finished, but Mandal showed that sometimes you need a big bang to get things going, even if your intentions were flawed.1990 also saw the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits (KPs) from the valley. A tragedy that would bookend a decade of strife and violence in India. The only lesson one should draw from the sad plight of KPs is that the State and the people must protect minority rights. We’re not sure that’s what we have taken away from it. And that’s sad.The 90s: Correcting The Course1991With the benefit of hindsight, the 1991 economic reforms seem inevitable. But things could well have been different. In the minority government, powerful voices advocated in favour of debt restructuring instead of wholesale reforms. In the end, the narrative that these changes were merely a continuation—and not abandonment—of Nehru and Indira Gandhi’s vision for India carried the day. This political chicanery deserves some credit for transforming the life of a billion Indians. 1992Harshad Mehta scammed the stock markets. It wasn’t a huge scam. Nor did it hurt the ordinary Indians. Fewer than 1% invested in markets back then. Yet, the scam did something important. It set in motion a series of reforms that made our capital markets stronger and safer for ordinary investors. Notably, over the years, Mehta came to be seen as some kind of robber baron figure. Capitalism needed an anti-hero to catch the imagination of people. Someone who could reprise in the 90s the Bachchan-esque angry young man roles of the 70s. Mehta might not have been that figure exactly, but he helped a generation transition to the idea that greed could indeed be good.Also, Babri Masjid was brought down by a mob of kar sevaks in 1992. It will remain a watershed moment in our history. The Supreme Court judgement of 2019 might be the final judicial word on it. But we will carry the scars for a long time.1993The tremors of the demolition of the Babri Masjid were felt in 1993. Twelve bombs went off in Bombay on one fateful day. The involvement of the city’s mafia groups was established. The tragic event finally led to the government rescuing the city from the underworld. Not to forget, the Bombay underworld directly resulted from government policies such as prohibition and gold controls. 1994One of the great acts of perversion in our democracy was the blatant abuse of Section 356 of the constitution that allowed the union to dismiss a state government at the slightest pretext. Indira Gandhi turned this into an art form. S. R. Bommai, whose government in Karnataka was dismissed in this manner in 1988, took his case up to the Supreme Court. In 1994, the court delivered a verdict that laid out the guidelines to prevent the abuse of Section 356. It is one of the landmark judgments of the court and restored some parity in Union and state relationship.Article 356 has been used sparingly since. We are a better democracy because of it.1995India joined the WTO, and the first-ever mobile phone call was made this year. But 1995 will forever be remembered as the year when Ganesha idols started drinking milk. This event was a precursor to the many memes, information cascades, and social proofs that have become routine in the information age. 1996Union budgets in India are occasions for dramatic policy announcements. It is a mystery why a regular exercise of presenting the government's accounts should become a policy event. But that’s the way we roll. In 1996 and 1997, P. Chidambaram presented them as the FM of a weak ragtag coalition called the United Front. But he presented two budgets for the ages. The rationalisation of income tax slabs and the deregulation of interest rates created a credit culture that led to the eventual consumption boom in the next decade. We still carry that consumption momentum.1997The creation of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) is an important public policy milestone for India. By no means perfect, the setting up of TRAI helped overturn a norm where government departments were both players and umpires. TRAI made the separation of “steering” and “rowing” functions a new normal. That template has been copied in several sectors thereafter, most recently in the liberalisation of the space sector. 1998India did Pokhran 2, which gave it the capability to build thermonuclear weapons. We faced sanctions and global condemnation. But the growing economy and a sizeable middle class meant those were soon forgotten. Economic might can let you get away with a lot. We have seen it happen to us, but it is a lesson we don’t understand fully.Also, in 1998, Sonia Gandhi jumped into active politics. The Congress that was ambling towards some sort of internal democracy decided to jettison it all and threw its weight behind the dynasty. It worked out for them for a decade or so. But where are they now? Here’s a question. What if Sonia didn’t join politics then? Congress might have split. But who knows, maybe those splinters might have coalesced in the future with a leader chosen by the workers. And we would have had a proper opposition today with a credible leader.1999This was a landmark year for public policy. For the first time, a union government-run company was privatised wholly. We wrote about the three narratives of disinvestment here. 2000We have a weak, extended and over-centralised state. And to go with it, we have large, unwieldy states and districts that make the devolution of power difficult. In 2000, we created three new states to facilitate administrative convenience. On balance, it has worked well. Despite the evidence, we have managed to create only one more state since. The formation of Telangana was such a political disaster that it will take a long time before we make the right policy move of having smaller states. It is a pity.The 2000s: The Best Of Times2001Not only was the Agra Summit between Musharraf and Vajpayee a dud, but it was followed by a terrorist attack on the Indian parliament. It confirmed a pattern: PM-level bilateral meetings made the Pakistani military-jihadi complex jittery, and it invariably managed to spike such moves with terrorist attacks. 2002There was Godhra and the riots that followed. What else is there to say?2003The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act and the Civil Services Pension Reform are two policy successes with many lessons for future policymakers. We have discussed these on many occasions. 2004The NDA government called for an early election, confident about its prospects. India Shining, its campaign about how good things were, wasn’t too far from the truth. It is how many of us felt during that time. The NDA government had sustained the reform momentum of the 90s with some of the best minds running the key departments. Its loss was unexpected. Chandrababu Naidu, a politician who fashioned himself like a CEO, was taken to the cleaners in Andhra Pradesh. Apparently, economic reforms didn’t get you votes. The real India living in villages was angry at being left out. That was the lesson for politicians from 2004. Or, so we were told.Such broad narratives with minimal factual analysis backing them have flourished in the public policy space. There is no basis for them. The loss of NDA in 2004 came down to two states. Anti-incumbency in Andhra Pradesh where a resurgent Congress under YS Reddy beat TDP, a constituent of NDA. TDP lost by similar margins (in vote share %) across the state in all demographics in both rural and urban areas. There was no rural uprising against Naidu because of his tech-savvy, urban reformist image. Naidu lost because the other party ran a better campaign. Nothing else. The other mistake of the NDA was in choosing to partner with the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu (TN) over DMK. TN was famous for not giving split verdicts. It swung to extremes between these two parties in every election. And that’s what happened as AIADMK drew a blank.Yet, the false lesson of 2004 has played on the minds of politicians since. We haven’t gotten back on track on reforms in the true sense. 2005The Right to Information Act and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act came into force in 2005. The “right to X” model of governance took root.2006In March 2006, George W Bush visited India and signed the Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement with Manmohan Singh. From facing sanctions in 1998 for Pokhran 2 to the 123 Agreement, this was a victory for Indian diplomacy and its rising status in the world. You would think this would have had bipartisan support among the political class in India. Well, the Left that was part of UPA and the BJP that worked on the deal when it was in power, opposed it. Many shenanigans later, the deal was passed in the parliament in 2008. It is often said there’s no real ideological divide among parties in India. This view can be contested on various grounds. But events like the opposition to the nuclear deal make you wonder if there are genuine ideological positions on key policy issues in India. Many sound policy decisions are opposed merely for the sake of it. Ideology doesn’t figure anywhere. 2007It was the year when the Left parties were out-lefted. In Singur and Nandigram, protests erupted over land acquisition for industrial projects. The crucible of the resulting violence created a new political force. As for the investment, the capital took a flight to other places. The tax on capital ended up being a tax on labour. Businesses stayed away from West Bengal. The citadel of Left turned into its mausoleum.2008Puja Mehra in her book The Lost Decade traces the origin of India losing its way following the global financial crisis to the Mumbai terror attack of 2008. Shivraj Patil, the home minister, quit following the attack and Chidambaram was shifted from finance to fill in. For reasons unknown, Pranab Mukherjee, a politician steeped in the 70s-style-Indira-Gandhi socialism, was made the FM. Mehra makes a compelling case of how that one decision stalled reforms, increased deficit and led to runaway inflation over the next three years. Till Chidambaram was brought back to get the house in order, it was too late, and we were halfway into a lost decade. It is remarkable how bad policies always seem easy to implement while good policies take ages to get off the blocks.2009The Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) was established in January 2009 to architect a unique digital identity for persons in a country where low rates of death and birth registrations made fake and duplicate identities a means for corruption and denial of service. Under the Modi government, the digital identity — Aadhaar — became the fulcrum of several government services. This project also set the stage for later projects such as the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and Abha (Health ID).2010There’s petty corruption everywhere in India. It is pervasive. Not surprisingly, it is one political issue leading to mass movements in India. The anti-corruption mood gripped India in 2010 on the back of the 2G spectrum scam, where the chief accountant of the government claimed a notional loss of about Rs. 1.8 trillion to the exchequer. Auctioning of natural resources wasn’t exactly a transparent process then. It was evident there was a scam in the allotment of the 2G spectrum. But the 1.8 trillion number was a wild exaggeration that anyone with a semblance of business understanding could see through. It didn’t matter. That number caught the imagination. UPA 2 never recovered from it. More importantly, the auction policy for resources was distorted forever. We still suffer the consequences.The 2010s: Missed Opportunity2011India’s last case of wild poliovirus was detected in 2011. Until about the early 1990s, an average of 500 to 1000 children got paralysed daily in India. The original target for eradication was the year 2000. Nevertheless, we got there eleven years later. India’s pulse polio campaign has since become a source of confidence for public policy execution in India. We internalised the lesson that the Indian government can sometimes deliver through mission mode projects. 2012If you cannot solve a vexing public policy issue, turn it into a Right. It won’t work, but it will seem like you’ve done everything. After years of trying to get the national education policy right, the government decided it was best to make education a fundamental right in the Constitution. Maybe that will make the problem go away. A decade later, nothing has changed, but we have an additional right to feel good about.2013This year saw the emergence of AAP as a political force via the anti-corruption movement. AAP combines the classic elements of what makes a political party successful in India - statist instincts, focus on aam aadmi issues, populism and ideological flexibility. Importantly, it is good at telling its own version of some future utopia rather than questioning the utopia of others. 2014The BJP came to power with many promises; the most alluring of them was ‘minimum government, maximum governance’. Over the past eight years it has claimed success in meeting many of its promises, but even its ardent supporters won’t claim any success on minimum government. In fact, it has gone the other way. That a party with an immensely popular PM, election machinery that rivals the best in the world, and virtually no opposition cannot shake us off our instinctive belief in the State's power never ceases to surprise us.2015The murder of a person by a mob on the charges of eating beef was the first clear indication of the upsurge of a new violent, majoritarian polity. It was also one of the early incidents in India of radically networked communities using social media for self-organisation. Meanwhile, 2015 also witnessed the signing of a landmark boundary agreement between India and Bangladesh, which ended the abomination called the third-order enclave. The two States exchanged land peacefully, upholding the principle that citizen well-being trumps hardline interpretations of territorial integrity. 2016There will be many case studies written in future about demonetisation. Each one of them will end with a single conclusion. Public policy requires discussion and consensus, not stealth and surprise. We hope we have learnt our lesson from it.2017Until 2017, many in India still held the hope of a modus vivendi with China. Some others were enamoured by the Chinese model of governance. However, the Doklam crisis in 2017, and the Galwan clashes in 2020, changed all that. Through this miscalculation, China alienated a full generation of Indians, led to better India-US relations, and energised India to shift focus away from merely managing a weak Pakistan, and toward raising its game for competing with a stronger adversary. For this reason, we wrote a thank you note to Xi Jinping here. 2018It took years of efforts by the LGBTQ community to get Section 377 scrapped. In 2018, they partially won when the Supreme Court diluted Section 377 to exclude all kinds of adult consensual sexual behaviour. The community could now claim equal constitutional status as others. There’s still some distance to go for the State to acknowledge non-heterosexual unions and provide for other civil rights to the community. But the gradual acceptance of the community because of decriminalisation is a sign that our society doesn’t need moral policing or lectures to judge what’s good for it.2019The J&K Reorganisation Act changed the long-standing political status quo in Kashmir. Three years on, the return to political normalcy and full statehood still awaits. While a response by Pakistan was expected, it was China that fomented trouble in Ladakh, leading to the border clashes in 2020. 2020We have written multiple pieces on farm laws in the past year. The repeal of these laws, which were fundamentally sound because of a vocal minority, is the story of public policy in India. Good policies are scuttled because of the absence of consultation, an unclear narrative, opportunistic politicking or plain old hubris. We write this newsletter in the hope of changing this. 2021The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic left behind many bereaved families. People are still trying to pick up the pieces. The sadness was also interrupted by frustration because of the delays in getting the vaccination programme going. India benefited immensely from domestic vaccine manufacturing capability in the private sector. Despite many twists and turns in vaccine pricing and procurements, the year ended with over 1 billion administered doses. In challenging times, the Indian State, markets, and society did come together to fight the pandemic. So, here we are. In the 75th independent year of this beautiful, fascinating and often exasperating nation. We are a work in progress. We might walk slowly, but we must not walk backwards. May we all live in a happy, prosperous and equal society. Thanks for reading Anticipating the Unintended! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

In 1947, few people gave us 75 years. Bloody hell, here we are! And it is up to us now to make this country the best version of itself. Karthik Muralidharan joins Amit Varma in episode 290 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss one of our problem areas: the Indian state. Can we fix it? Yes we can! (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. Karthik Muralidharan on Twitter, LinkedIn, Google Scholar and UCSD. 2. Centre for Effective Governance of Indian States (CEGIS) 3. Fixing Indian Education -- Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 4. Understanding Indian Healthcare -- Episode 225 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 5. General equilibrium effects of (improving) public employment programs: experimental evidence from India -- The paper on NREGA by Karthik Muralidharan, Paul Niehaus and Sandip Sukhtankar. 6. Kashmir and Article 370 -- Episode 134 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Srinath Raghavan). 7. The Citizenship Battles -- Episode 152 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Srinath Raghavan). 8. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 9. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah. 10. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah). 11. Pramit Bhattacharya Believes in Just One Ism -- Episode 256 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pramit Bhattacharya). 12. The Paradox of Narendra Modi — Episode 102 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shashi Tharoor). 13. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia -- Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Montek Singh Ahluwalia). 14. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the creator ecosystem with Roshan Abbas, Varun Duggirala, Neelesh Misra, Snehal Pradhan, Chuck Gopal, Nishant Jain, Deepak Shenoy and Abhijit Bhaduri. 15. The Case Against Sugar — Gary Taubes. 16. The Big Fat Surprise — Nina Teicholz. 17. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao -- Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 18. The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer -- N Gregory Mankiw. 19. The Gated Republic -- Shankkar Aiyar. 20. Despite the State — M Rajshekhar. 21. The Power Broker— Robert Caro. 22. The Death and Life of Great American Cities — Jane Jacobs. 23. India's Security State -- Episode 242 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Josy Joseph). 24. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State -- Amit Varma. 25. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 26. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms -- Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 27. State Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century — Francis Fukuyama. 28. The Origins of Political Order — Francis Fukuyama. 29. Political Order and Political Decay — Francis Fukuyama. 30. Computer Nahi Monitor -- Episode 5 of season 1 of Panchayat. 31. Naushad Forbes Wants to Fix India -- Episode 282 of The Seen and the Unseen. 32. Courts Redux: Micro-Evidence from India -- Manaswini Rao. 33.  The Checklist Manifesto -- Atul Gawande. 34. Annie Hall -- Woody Allen. 35. The Politics Limerick -- Amit Varma. 36. The Decline of the Congress -- Episode 248 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 37. The Burden of Democracy -- Pratap Bhanu Mehta. 38. A Theory of Clientelistic Politics versus Programmatic Politics -- Pranab Bardhan and Dilip Mookherjee. 39. Power and Prosperity — Mancur Olson. 40. The Business of Winning Elections -- Episode 247 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shivam Shankar Singh). 41. Premature load bearing: Evidence, Analysis, Action -- Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett and Michael Woolcock. 42. A Meditation on Form — Amit Varma. 43. Religion and Ideology in Indian Society -- Episode 124 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Suyash Rai). 44. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills -- Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 45. India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy -- Ramachandra Guha. 46. Participatory Democracy -- Episode 160 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 47. Cities and Citizens -- Episode 198 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 48. Helping Others in the Fog of Pandemic -- Episode 226 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 49. Aakar Patel Is Full of Hope -- Episode 270 of The Seen and the Unseen. 50. The Tamilian gentleman who took on the world -- Amit Varma on Viswanathan Anand. 51. Running to Stand Still -- U2. 52. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength -- Amit Varma. 53. India's Founding Moment — Madhav Khosla. 54. The Ideas of Our Constitution -- Episode 164 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Madhav Khosla). 55. The Life and Times of Urvashi Butalia -- Episode 287 of The Seen and the Unseen. 56. Pitfalls of Participatory Programs -- Abhijit Banerjee, Rukmini Banerji, Esther Duflo, Rachel Glennerster and Stuti Khemani. 57. Our Parliament and Our Democracy -- Episode 253 of The Seen and the Unseen (w MR Madhavan). 58. Elite Imitation in Public Policy -- Episode 180 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok). 59. Urban Governance in India -- Episode 31 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 60. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri -- Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Abhinandan Sekhri). 61. The Tiebout Model. 62. Every Act of Government Is an Act of Violence -- Amit Varma. 63. Taxes Should Be Used for Governance, Not Politics -- Amit Varma. 64. The Effects of Democratization on Public Goods and Redistribution: Evidence from China -- Nancy Qian, Gerard Padró i Miquel, Monica Martinez-Bravo and Yang Yao. 65. Sneaky Artist Sees the World -- Episode 260 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nishant Jain). 66. Science and Covid-19 -- Episode 221 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Anirban Mahapatra). 66. Centrally Sponsored Government Schemes -- Episode 17 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane.). 67. India's states can be laboratories for policy innovation and reform -- Karthik Muralidharan. 68. Clientelism in Indian Villages -- Siwan Anderson, Patrick Francois, and Ashok Kotwal. 69. Patching Development -- Rajesh Veeraraghavan. 70. Opportunity, Choice and the IPL (2008) — Amit Varma. 71. The IPL is Here and Here Are Six Reasons to Celebrate It (2019) — Amit Varma. 72. Climate Change and Our Power Sector -- Episode 278 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshay Jaitley and Ajay Shah). 73. The Delhi Smog -- Episode 44 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vivek Kaul). 74. The Life and Times of Nilanjana Roy -- Episode 284 of The Seen and the Unseen. 75. The Life and Times of Nirupama Rao -- Episode 269 of The Seen and the Unseen. 76. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande -- Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 77. Objects Speak to Annapurna Garimella -- Episode 257 of The Seen and the Unseen. 78. Letters for a Nation: From Jawaharlal Nehru to His Chief Ministers 1947-1963 -- Edited by Madhav Khosla. 79. To Raise a Fallen People -- Rahul Sagar. 80. The Progressive Maharaja -- Rahul Sagar. 81. India = Migration -- Episode 128 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chinmay Tumbe). 82. India: A Sacred Geography -- Diana Eck. 83. Unlikely is Inevitable — Amit Varma. 84. The Law of Truly Large Numbers. 85. Political Ideology in India -- Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! The illustration for this episode is by Nishant Jain aka Sneaky Artist. Check out his podcast, Twitter, Instagram and Substack.

Is the Indian State undermining the Indian Nation by its abject appeasement of anti-national forces? What are the lessons to be drawn from the suspension of Nupur Sharma by BJP, along with expulsion of Naveen Jindal and removal of Arun Yadav. Sandeep Deo joins Sanjay Dixit for a talk.

Hi, I'm Sukhraj Singh from Sikh Archive and welcome to the 47th episode of our Podcast series of conversations with historians, authors, academics, researchers and activists on topics related to their areas of expertise on Sikh or Panjabi history. In this episode we are joined by Taylor Sherman, who is a professor of history at the London School of Economics where her research concerns the cultural and political history of South Asia between the 1930s and the 1970s.  We discuss today the politics of Nehru and his defining role in the formation of the Indian State with particular reference to high modernism and the establishment of Chandigarh, which is an element of her forthcoming book, titled, Nehru's India: A history in Seven Myths. ★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

To fight climate change, we need to reform the power sector. Right now, it's dysfunctional. Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah join Amit Varma in episode 278 of The Seen and the Unseen to share their roadmap for change.  Also check out: 1. Akshay Jaitly on Twitter, Linkedin, Nicheless and Substack. Ajay Shah on Twitter and Substack. 2. The lowest hanging fruit on the coconut tree: India's climate transition through the price system in the power sector -- Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah. 3. Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah's aggregated pieces on energy and climate. 4. The Time To Privatise India's Electricity Sector Is Now -- Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah. 5. Root cause analysis for the electricity crisis -- Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah. 6. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah. 7. The Art and Science of Economic Policy -- Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah). 8. Other episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 9. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State -- Amit Varma. 10. Naren Shenoy's fancy dress competition. 11. Narendra Shenoy and Mr Narendra Shenoy -- Episode 250 of The Seen and the Unseen. 12. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life -- Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. The Chronicles of Narnia -- CS Lewis. 14. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory -- Roald Dahl. 15. Alistair MacLean and John Steinbeck on Amazon. 16. Grapes of Wrath -- John Steinbeck. 17. Of Mice and Men -- John Steinbeck. 18. André Gide and Albert Camus on Amazon. 19. Another Country -- James Baldwin. 20. Warren Mendonsa Plays the Universal Pentatonic -- Episode 273 of The Seen and the Unseen. 21. Jonathan Haidt on Amazon. 22. Kashmir and Article 370 -- Episode 134 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Srinath Raghavan). 23. Hind Swaraj -- Mohandas Gandhi. 24. Politics and the Sociopath -- Amit Varma. 25. Google Scholar. 26. Roam Research and Zettelkasten. 27. Discom Privatisation Challenged (Dec 2020) -- Akshay Jaitly. 28. Regulation in India: Design, Capacity, Performance -- Edited by Devesh Kapur and Madhav Khosla. 29. The Use of Knowledge in Society -- Friedrich Hayek. 30. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 31. History of UN Climate Talks. 32. The Evolution of the UNFCCC -- Jonathan Kuyper, Heike Schroeder and Björn-Ola Linnér. 33. The COP List. 34. The Road From Rio (1993) -- Prodipto Ghosh and Akshay Jaitly. 35. William Nordhaus versus the United Nations on Climate Change Economics -- Robert P Murphy. 36. Hotter than the human body can handle: Pakistan city broils in world's highest temperatures -- Ben Farmer. 37. Price Controls Lead to Shortages and Harm the Poor -- Amit Varma. 38. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills -- Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 39. Lessons from an Ankhon Dekhi Prime Minister -- Amit Varma. 40. Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All -- Michael Shellenberger. 41. Nuclear Power Can Save the World — Joshua S Goldstein, Staffan A Qvist and Steven Pinker. 42. Kim Stanley Robinson on Amazon. 43. Death at Intervals -- José Saramago. 44. The Shape of Water -- Andrea Camilleri. 45. The Terracotta Dog -- Andrea Camilleri. 46. 12 Bytes: How artificial intelligence will change the way we live and love -- Jeanette Winterson. 47. The Singularity Is Near -- Ray Kurzweil. 48. Report to Greco -- Nikos Kazantzakis. 49. Seven Brief Lessons on Physics -- Carlo Rovelli. 50. Michael Dibdin on Amazon. This episode is sponsored by Knest Manufacturers, India's largest and the world's fastest-growing formwork company, which has made real estate development in India more efficient, sustainable and scalable. This episode is so-sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free!

What was the roadmap in J&K after nullification of Art. 370? Have those expectations been fulfilled? Has the Indian State changed the fundamentals of separatism, or has it begun to pander to it? All this and more in this talk with Major Gaurav arya hosted by Sanjay Dixit.

The Indian State being ruthless to the Muslims is not new and certainly not unique to BJP rule. But what the ruling party is undertaking is a social re-engineering.

European bourses are mixed with US futures similarly contained, ES +0.1, amid limited newsflow and with a thin docket ahead.Russian Chief Negotiator said Russia's position on Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged, a draft peace agreement is not ready and talks will resume on MondayDXY continues to grind higher as EUR lags amid yield pressure as EGBs bounce, though GBP/Gilts await BoE speak via dovish-dissenter CunliffeWTI and Brent are choppy but contained awaiting Ukraine-Russia progress; Kremlin has no information on the continuation of talksFed's Williams says balance sheet reduction could begin as soon as May.Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders & BoE's CunliffeAs of 10:45BST/05:45ETLOOKING AHEADUS Factory Orders & BoE's CunliffeClick here for the Week Ahead preview.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSRussian Chief Negotiator said Russia's position on Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged, a draft peace agreement is not ready and talks will resume on Monday, via Reuters.Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Kyiv is attempting to disrupt peace talks.SGH Macro Advisors, in a note dated April 1st, suggested it is their understand that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov conveyed to his Chinese counterpart that “there is still a long way to be walked” to sign a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine under conditions that are “mutually acceptable”, although a great progress has been made. Lavrov added that Russia does not rule out settlement in Roubles for other commodities if hostility continues from the West. Commodities such as oil, wheat, fertilizer, lumber, and uranium could be affected.Russia has requested a US Security Council Meeting to discuss "provocation of Ukrainian radicals", according to Reuters citing Ria.Russia's Kremlin repeated that the special military operation in Ukraine will achieve all of its aims, via Reuters.US Secretary of State Blinken will travel to Belgium on April 5-7th for a NATO meeting, according to the State Department.Russian Kremlin says it has no information re. the continuation of Russia-Ukraine talks, declines to comment on how Bucha allegations will impact discussions; wants and demands the Bucha issue is discussed at an international level, categorically rejects any accusations.DEFENCE/MILITARYRussia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on trying to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials cited by CNN.Poland's Ruling Party leader said Poland would be open to deploying US nuclear weapons in Poland, according to the Jerusalem Post.There have been reports via Western media of continued civilian killings by Russia in several cities, particularly in Bucha.NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said what we see in Ukraine is not a real withdrawal by Russian troops, via Reuters.Ukraine's 368.5k BPD Kremenchuk oil refinery was completely destroyed during a Russian attack, according to the regional governor.Explosions were heard in Ukraine's city of Odessa, according to a Reuters witness and in the city of Kherson, according to a local media.Ukrainian authorities of Luhansk says that Russian forces are preparing to launch an attack on the region after mobilising fighters and vehicles.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATESRussian government spokesperson Peskov said Russia could demand RUB payments for other goods. He added that payment for gas supplies in Russian Roubles will be made from the end of the second half of April, or even early May, according to Reuters.EU ambassadors are expected to discuss fresh Russian sanctions on Wednesday, according to FT sources.UK PM Johnson said UK is stepping up military support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, according to Reuters.German Chancellor Scholz said the West will agree on further Russian sanctions in the coming days, according to Reuters.EU must discuss import ban on Russian gas deliveries, according to the German Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.US Department of Commerce on Friday added 120 Russian and Belarusian entities, largely comprised of companies linked to the military, via Reuters.Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania stopped imports of Russian gas from April 1st, according to the FT.Physical gas flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline at Mallnow, Germany have dropped to zero, via Reuters citing operator data. Elsewhere, Gazprom does not intend to hold spot gas sales sessions at its electronic sales platform this week.German Economy Minister Habeck says they are working hard to limit dependence on Russian oil, also with reference to the Rosneft refinery in Schwedt.OTHERA Chinese diplomat, following talks with EU, said China cannot change the EU and the EU cannot change China. China said it is not deliberately circumventing Russian sanctions, via Reuters.North Korea continues to develop chemical and biological weapons which together with its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities pose a serious threat to South Korea and other US allies, according to Yonhap citing US officials on Friday.A two-month truce has been announced by the warring sides in Yemen, according to The Guardian.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Khatibzadeh says they are ready to continue discussions with Saudi Arabia, calling on them to show willingness to resolve the outstanding issues, via Reuters.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, failing to derive firm direction after initial opening gains faded in limited newsflow.Sectors, are mixed as well with Roche and Bayer lifting Health Care and the former aiding the SMI while Banking names lag modestly.Stateside, US futures are similarly indifferent with a thin docket ahead.Spanish PM Sanchez says they are to spend EUR 11bn on the semi-conductor and micro-chip industry, via Reuters.Click here for more detail.FXGreenback grinds higher amidst more Fed officials flagging half point hikes post-US jobs data and pre- factory orders, DXY forms 98.500+ base.Aussie outperforms ahead of AIG construction index, final PMIs and RBA policy meeting that might see rate guidance turn more plausible than patient; AUD/USD pivots 0.7500 and AUD/NZD solid on the 1.0800 handle.Euro underperforms as EGB yields retreat, Russia/Ukraine angst persists and option expiry interest exerts downside pressure, EUR/USD drifts down from 1.1050+ towards 1.1000 and 1bln rolling off between the round number and 1.1010.Forint underpinned following resounding win by Hungarian PM Orban, but Lira undermined by further increases in Turkish CPI and PPI.S&P said Turkey long-term LC rating lowered to 'B+' from 'BB-'; FC rating affirmed at 'B+'; outlook remains negative.Click here for more detail.Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:EUR/USD: 1.0975 (485M), 1.1000-10 (1.1BN), 1.1100 (765M)Click here for more detail.FIXED INCOMEBunds bounce firmly on a mix of safe-haven demand, short covering and stop-driven price action as tech levels are breached through 159.00 vs 158.12 at the Eurex low, including a Fib at 159.03 and last Thursday's 159.05 session best.Gilts tag along awaiting comments from dovish BoE dissenter Cunliffe with the 10 year bond hovering towards the top of a 122.01-121.31 range vs its 121.19 prior Liffe close.US Treasuries remain sub-par and the curve re-steepens amidst more Fed backing for 50 bp hikes post-NFP and pre-US factory orders,10 year T-note soft between 121-27/122-08+ parameters.Click here for more detail.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent are choppy within a relatively contained USD 2.0/bbl range, as we await updates on the Russia-Ukraine talks set to resume on Monday.Currently, the benchmarks are holding within USD 98.00-100.70/bbl and USD 102.90-105.80/bbl parameters respectively.Reports on Saturday suggested Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline. It was then reported Gazprom has booked to pump gas through the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline on Sunday night to Monday, according to Interfax.Goldman Sachs upgrades its 2023 oil price forecast to USD 115/bbl (prev. 110/bbl); still forecast end-year oil at USD 125/bbl."A UN-brokered two-month ceasefire in Yemen was broadly holding on its first full day with oil shipments reaching the port of Hodeida", according to The Guardian.The Russian Energy Ministry has delayed the publication of March oil output numbers amid technical issues, according to reports.Azerbaijan plans to supply 9.5bcm of gas to Italy, according to Interfax.Indian State has cancelled bids by Adani Enterprises to supply imported coal as prices that were quoted were too high, according to a government official cited by Reuters.Spot gold/silver are firmer, deriving modest impetus from the deterioration in sentiment seen around the European cash open, metals towards top-end of respective ranges.Click here for more detail.CENTRAL BANKSFed's Williams (voter) expects a combination of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction to help ease inflation back to 4% this year and closer to 2% in 2024. Williams said balance sheet reduction could begin as soon as May. He added that there are no plans to use the balance sheet for Yield Curve Control, via Reuters. Williams also noted that the USD has proven itself as a safe haven. Williams also suggested that we have not yet seen global risk sentiment much impacted by the Ukraine war.Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said the case for 50bps rate hike in May has grown, according to the FT. She added she is more confident that adjusting early would be appropriate.ECB's Schnabel said the ECB plans to raise interest rates some time after winding down its bond purchase programme Q3 2022, via Reuters.DATA RECAPGerman Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Feb) 11.5B vs. Exp. 9.6B (Prev. 9.4B, Rev. 8.8B)EU Sentix Index (Apr) -18.0 vs. Exp. -9.2 (Prev. -7.0)Turkish CPI MM (Mar) 5.46% vs. Exp. 5.77% (Prev. 4.81%); YY (Mar) 61.14% vs. Exp. 61.6% (Prev. 54.44%)NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINESHungarian opposition leader has accepted defeat in elections, with PM Orban declaring victory.UK government is said to be mulling permanent replacements to programmes that helped banks lend to firms during the pandemic; the scheme is expected to focus on small and medium-sized firms. Sources added focus is on growth of UK business, via FT.German BDB, banking lobby, calls on the ECB to end net asset purchases soon and to send an initial signal on interest rates. Sees German growth of 2% in 2022, are considerable risks.NOTABLE US HEADLINESTesla (TSLA): Q1 deliveries 310.4k (prev. 308.6k Q/Q; exp. 309-315k).JP Morgan (JPM CEO) Dimon says the bank could lose around USD 1bln over time from its exposure to Russia. Stock buybacks will be lower over the next year or so due to mandates capital increases and acquisitions. Acquisitions will increase incremental investment expenses by USD 700mln in 2022.CRYPTOBitcoin is little changed but errs towards the lower-end of the sessions parameters at USD 45760 vs USD 47439, at best.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks initially traded mixed but later turned mostly higher.ASX 200 saw early outperformance as mining names surged, with rising EV sales also boosting some Russia-related metals.Nikkei 225 traded flat with a downside bias throughout the session.Hang Seng outperformed and was bolstered at the open by Chinese dual-listed stocks, with the tech sector the main beneficiary of the weekend Audit news, whilst gains compounded after HK Chief Executive Lam said she will not seek a second term.China on Saturday proposed revising confidentiality rules involving offshore listings, removing a legal hurdle to cooperation on audit oversight while putting the onus on Chinese companies to protect state secrets, via Reuters.Mainland China was closed due to a domestic holiday.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESThe Chinese army is sending over 2,000 medical personnel to Shanghai to aid with its COVID outbreak, according to CCTV.Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam will not seek re-election, according to NK01.South Korea's former PM Han Duck-Soo has been nominated as PM. He said the country needs to take more efforts to curb rising household debt, financial imbalances, and to maintain a trade surplus, according to Reuters.Pakistani PM Khan's cabinet has been dissolved and fresh elections will be held in 90 days, according to Reuters.Sri Lanka's government imposed a curfew amid the rising domestic unrest, via Reuters.

Asia-Pac equities initially traded mixed, but sentiment improved; Mainland China was closed whilst Hong Kong outperformed.Russian Chief Negotiator said Russia's position on Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged and talks will resume on Monday.European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Friday.DXY remains above 98.50, EUR/USD was flat on either side of 1.1050, Antipodeans narrowly outperform in the G10 FX space.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Sentix, US Factory Orders, BoE's Cunliffe, Mann.US TRADEUS stocks finished higher on Friday with trade choppy as a new quarter commenced but eyes remained on the inverted yield curve.SPX +0.32% at 4,544, NDX +0.15% at 14,861, DJIA +0.40% at 34,818, R2K +0.87% at 2,089.Click here for a detailed summary.NOTABLE US HEADLINESTesla (TSLA): Q1 deliveries 310.4k (prev. 308.6k Q/Q; exp. 309-315k).GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSRussian Chief Negotiator said Russia's position on Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged, a draft peace agreement is not ready and talks will resume on Monday, via Reuters.Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Kyiv is attempting to disrupt peace talks.SGH Macro Advisors, in a note dated April 1st, suggested it is their understand that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov conveyed to his Chinese counterpart that “there is still a long way to be walked” to sign a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine under conditions that are “mutually acceptable”, although a great progress has been made. Lavrov added that Russia does not rule out settlement in Roubles for other commodities if hostility continues from the West. Commodities such as oil, wheat, fertilizer, lumber, and uranium could be affected.Russia has requested a US Security Council Meeting to discuss "provocation of Ukrainian radicals", according to Reuters citing Ria.Russia's Kremlin repeated that the special military operation in Ukraine will achieve all of its aims, via Reuters.US Secretary of State Blinken will travel to Belgium on April 5-7th for a NATO meeting, according to the State Department.DEFENCE/MILITARYRussia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on trying to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials cited by CNN.Poland's Ruling Party leader said Poland would be open to deploying US nuclear weapons in Poland, according to the Jerusalem Post.There have been reports via Western media of continued civilian killings by Russia in several cities, particularly in Bucha.NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said what we see in Ukraine is not a real withdrawal by Russian troops, via Reuters.Ukraine's 368.5k BPD Kremenchuk oil refinery was completely destroyed during a Russian attack, according to the regional governor.UK said a fire has destroyed several oil tanks in the Russian city of Belgorod, close to the border with Ukraine, via Reuters.Explosions were heard in Ukraine's city of Odessa, according to a Reuters witness and in the city of Kherson, according to a local media.White House said the US is providing Ukraine with supplies in case Russia deploys chemical weapons.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSRussian government spokesperson Peskov said Russia could demand RUB payments for other goods. He added that payment for gas supplies in Russian Roubles will be made from the end of the second half of April, or even early May, according to Reuters.EU ambassadors are expected to discuss fresh Russian sanctions on Wednesday, according to FT sources.UK PM Johnson said UK is stepping up military support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, according to Reuters.German Chancellor Scholz said the West will agree on further Russian sanctions in the coming days, according to Reuters.EU must discuss import ban on Russian gas deliveries, according to the German Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.US Department of Commerce on Friday added 120 Russian and Belarusian entities, largely comprised of companies linked to the military, via Reuters.Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania stopped imports of Russian gas from April 1st, according to the FT.Shell (SHEL LN) cannot use Gazprom's Rouble payment method due to sanctions, according to Reuters.OTHERA Chinese diplomat, following talks with EU, said China cannot change the EU and the EU cannot change China. China said it is not deliberately circumventing Russian sanctions, via Reuters.North Korea continues to develop chemical and biological weapons which together with its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities pose a serious threat to South Korea and other US allies, according to Yonhap citing US officials on Friday.A two-month truce has been announced by the warring sides in Yemen, according to The Guardian.CENTRAL BANKSFed's Williams (voter) expects a combination of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction to help ease inflation back to 4% this year and closer to 2% in 2024. Williams said balance sheet reduction could begin as soon as May. He added that there are no plans to use the balance sheet for Yield Curve Control, via Reuters. Williams also noted that the USD has proven itself as a safe haven. Williams also suggested that we have not yet seen global risk sentiment much impacted by the Ukraine war.Fed's Evans (2023 voter) said raising rates to just under 2.5% by March 2023 gives Fed 'optionality'. He said it is not a big risk if rate-hike path includes 'some' 50bps hikes to get to neutral sooner. He said the latest jobs report is not indicative of overheating and the monthly inflation reports should start to be lower in H2 22, but rhetoric won't change until 2023, via Reuters. Raising rates quickly 'puts a premium on communicating' how far rates may ultimately need to rise, via Reuters.Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said the case for 50bps rate hike in May has grown, according to the FT. She added she is more confident that adjusting early would be appropriate.ECB's Schnabel said the ECB plans to raise interest rates some time after winding down its bond purchase programme Q3 2022, via Reuters.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks initially traded mixed but later turned mostly higher.ASX 200 saw early outperformance as mining names surged, with rising EV sales also boosting some Russia-related metals.Nikkei 225 traded flat with a downside bias throughout the session.Hang Seng outperformed and was bolstered at the open by Chinese dual-listed stocks, with the tech sector the main beneficiary of the weekend Audit news, whilst gains compounded after HK Chief Executive Lam said she will not seek a second term.China on Saturday proposed revising confidentiality rules involving offshore listings, removing a legal hurdle to cooperation on audit oversight while putting the onus on Chinese companies to protect state secrets, via Reuters.Mainland China was closed due to a domestic holiday.US equity futures kicked off trade relatively flat before drifting lower and holding a downside bias after the first set of APAC cash opens; ES Unch.European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Friday.FXDXY gained in early trade and remained north of 98.50 throughout the session following further weekend Fed commentary.EUR/USD was flat on either side of 1.1050.GBP/USD was similarly uneventful but retained a 1.3100 handle.JPY initially outpaced peers but gains later faded as the APAC mood recovered.Antipodeans rose to the top of the G10 bunch - aided by gains in some base metals.S&P said Turkey long-term LC rating lowered to 'B+' from 'BB-'; FC rating affirmed at 'B+'; outlook remains negative.BCB is to continue reducing EUR and USD dollars as reserves, but will keep on increasing CNY as reserves, according to Reuters.FIXED INCOME10yr UST was softer since the open whilst in terms of cash yields, the 2yr, 3yr, 5yr and 7yr remain above the 10yr and 30yr.Bunds futures also held a downside bias but to a lesser magnitude.10yr JGBs were relatively tame during the APAC session.BoJ offered to buy JPY 150bln in JGBs up to 1yr, JPY 475bln in 1-3yr (Prev. 450bln), JPY 475bln in 3-5yr (prev. 600bln) and PY 125bln in 10-25yr (prev. 100bln)COMMODITIESWTI and Brent futures saw mild early weakness and have traded sideways since.US DoE on Friday announced emergency notice of sale of crude oil to fulfil release from SPR to address the energy price hike.Reports on Saturday suggested Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline. It was then reported Gazprom has booked to pump gas through the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline on Sunday night to Monday, according to Interfax."A UN-brokered two-month ceasefire in Yemen was broadly holding on its first full day with oil shipments reaching the port of Hodeida", according to The Guardian.The Russian Energy Ministry has delayed the publication of March oil output numbers amid technical issues, according to reports.Azerbaijan plans to supply 9.5bcm of gas to Italy, according to Interfax.ECB rejected the request from energy traders for financial support, according to Reuters.Spot gold traded rangebound and remains within recent parameters.Copper was marginally softer during APAC trade.Indian State has cancelled bids by Adani Enterprises to supply imported coal as prices that were quoted were too high, according to a government official cited by Reuters.CRYPTOBitcoin was volatile around 46,000 level and Ethereum meandered around 3,500.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESThe Chinese army is sending over 2,000 medical personnel to Shanghai to aid with its COVID outbreak, according to CCTV.Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam will not seek re-election, according to NK01.South Korea's former PM Han Duck-Soo has been nominated as PM. He said the country needs to take more efforts to curb rising household debt, financial imbalances, and to maintain a trade surplus, according to Reuters.Pakistani PM Khan's cabinet has been dissolved and fresh elections will be held in 90 days, according to Reuters.Sri Lanka's government imposed a curfew amid the rising domestic unrest, via Reuters.EUROPE-SPECIFIC HEADLINESHungarian opposition leader has accepted defeat in elections, with PM Orban declaring victory.UK government is said to be mulling permanent replacements to programmes that helped banks lend to firms during the pandemic; the scheme is expected to focus on small and medium-sized firms. Sources added focus is on growth of UK business, via FT.

Dr Tripurdaman Singh is a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London and a Visiting Fellow at the International Institute of Asian Studies, Universiteit Leiden. He is the author of 'Imperial Sovereignty and Local Politics: The Bhadauria Rajputs and the Transition from Mughal to British India, 1600-1900' and ‘Sixteen Stormy Days: The Story of the First Amendment to the Constitution of India'. His latest book is ‘Nehru: The Debates that defined India'.

The success of the movie lies in weaving it around 5 true stories well known to anyone familiar with Kashmir, but coming as a deep shock to those from whom the truth was carefully hidden. Truthful graphic portrayal is the huge strength of this movie, that takes care of any weaknesses. It is a starting point for us to nail the real culprit, Islam and Indian State's unwillingness to face it. One may read 'Unbreaking India' for a deeper take - (तुरुष्कदर्शने भक्त्या न तु द्वेषेन स द्विजान। - Jonaraja). Sanjay Dixit reviews the movie after watching it.

Topic: Indian State | Challenges of Democratic Transition This is a complete recording of a Clubhouse event organized by the club Study Circle पाठशाला on 16th of January 2022 The event started at 6 PM with an introduction by the Club Founder and Moderator Ravindra Patwal. Speakers: Satyendra Ranjan, Jaleshwar, Shashikant, Suresh Pratap, Marnina Azad, Pankaj Shrivastava, Sujoy, Shashikant, Anil Kumar Presented/Curated by Irfan Image Courtesy: Study Circle पाठशाला CH Cover Art --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/sm-irfan/message

Welcome back to another episode! This Week, Mark and Paige hit the following: * Texas oil and gas regulators reject production cuts  * Indian state refiners scale up crude processing as fuel demand improves  * Oil Is Back In Demand As Drivers Return To The Roads  * Williams lands Gulf of Mexico pipeline deal with Chevron, Total  * Energy Bodies Request Virus Testing Prioritization  * Oil Posts Five-Week High  * America's Oil And Gas Jobs Could Soon Come Roaring Back  * World Petroleum Congress Event in Houston Pushed to 2021  * Natural Gas Prices Could Double Next Year  If you want to get a question answered for next month's FFQA, click the link below. Enjoy! Have a question? Click here to ask. As of 5/20/2020 – The American Rig count is 339 active rigs. IBM Giveaway Enter to Win Here! Sign-up for your chance to win a T-shirt with a unique serial number. This means each shirt is different making it an awesome collector's item! Plus it comes inside an official OGGN insulated tumbler. At the end of the year we will have a drawing to win our grand prize! This will be a pool of all of the serial numbers on the t-shirts! The grand prize will be announced a bit later in the year! Street Team If you’re interested in joining the street team, join our Facebook Group here. Interested in Sponsoring??  If you would like to get your company in front of our  professional audience, please contact our Director, Kathryn Mills   More Oil and Gas Global Network Podcasts Oil and Gas This Week Podcast | Oil and Gas HS&E Podcast | Oil and Gas Industry Leaders | Oil and Gas Legal Risk | Oil and Gas Onshore | Oil and Gas Offshore  | PITCH Engage with Oil and Gas Global Network LinkedIn Group | Facebook | modalpoint | OGGN Get Mark’s Monthly Events Email Get Automatically Notified About Oil & Gas Events Once a Month Connect with Us OGGN LinkedIn OGGN Facebook Group Paige Wilson LinkedIn|