Podcast appearances and mentions of Amir Sufi

The neutral rate is relevant for understaning the stance of monetary policy and for the fiscal outlook, as it determines the financing conditions for government debt. We explain how the neutral rate is defined, discuss its economic determinants and provide estimates of how it has changed since the pre-pandemic period. Increased government debt supply appears to have excerted substantial upward pressure on the neutral rate. We make reference to the following papers: Thiago Ferreira and Samer Shousha titled “The supply of safe assets and global interest rates” , Journal of International Economics, 2023. Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi. titled “What explains the decline in r*? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts.” Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium, 2021.

European governments have become accustomed to running persistent primary deficits. This is only sustainable for debt dynamics if interest rates R are below the economy's growth rate G. We check if R < G was satisfied over the past 20 years and the discuss the outlook for this relationship in the future. Papers we mention in the podcast are: Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi. Forthcoming. “What explains the decline in r*? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts.” Proceedings of the 2021 Jackson Hole Symposium. Paul Schmelzing, "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular' decline, 1311–2018", https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018

Hanno Lustig is a professor of finance at Stanford University, and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Hanno joins David on Macro Musings to discuss his work on dollar safety, safe assets, convenience yields, and more. More specifically, Hanno and David discuss the dollar dominance in global financial markets, how the US's status as the world's safe asset provider reinforces its exorbitant privilege in money markets, whether the countercyclical demand for safe assets can help explain why US inflation has been so low this past decade, how years of low interest rate policy might have contributed to the growing wealth gap, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Hanno's Twitter: @HannoLustig Hanno's Stanford profile: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/hanno-lustig   Related Links:   *Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle* by Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Hanno Lustig https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/working-papers/dollar-safety-global-financial-cycle   *Mind the Gap in Sovereign Debt Markets: The U.S. Treasury basis and the Dollar Risk Factor* by Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3443231   *Manufacturing Risk-Free Government Debt* by Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3646430   *US Government Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3333517   *The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble* by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sebastian A. Merkel and Yuliy Sannikov https://www.nber.org/papers/w27116   *Debt As Safe Asset: Mining the Bubble* by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sebastian Merkel, and Yuliy Sannikov https://scholar.princeton.edu/markus/publications/debt-safe-asset-mining-bubble   *The Safety Trap* by Ricardo J. Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi https://www.nber.org/papers/w19927   *Financial and Total Wealth Inequality with Declining Interest Rates* by Daniel Greenwald, Matteo Leombroni, Hanno Lustig, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3789220   *The Saving Glut of the Rich* by Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi https://scholar.harvard.edu/straub/publications/saving-glut-rich-and-rise-household-debt   David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Få et gjenhør med Tankesmien Agenda og Universitetet i Oslo sitt foredrag om gjeld, ulikhet og økonomisk krise. Økonom Amir Sufi kom i 2014 kom med boken House of Debt sammen med Atif Mian. Der viser han viktige sammenhenger mellom økonomiske kriser og voksende husholdningsgjeld. Nå kommer han til oss! 27. oktober foreleste han om sammenhengen mellom økonomisk ulikhet, økonomisk krise og økende gjeld, og hvordan coronapandemien har påvirket oss. Etter foredraget blir det panelsamtale, moderert av fagsjef i Tankesmien Agenda, Hannah Gitmark.

Opptak av foredrag med økonom Amir Sufi. Han kom i 2014 kom med boken House of Debt sammen med Atif Mian. Der viser han viktige sammenhenger mellom økonomiske kriser og voksende husholdningsgjeld. Utgjør den store norske boliggjelden en stor fare? Sufi var årets Aula-gjest i samarbeid mellom Tankesmien Agenda og Universitetet i Oslo. Hør foredraget i sin helhet etterfulgt av en panelsamtale med Karin Kinnerud (BI), Kristoffer Berg (UiO) og Kasper Kragh-Sørensen (UiO)

Vernon Smith won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2002. Show notes Selected links •Follow Vernon: Website •Rethinking Housing Bubbles, by Vernon Smith and Steven Gjerstad •'Debt Deflation: Theory and Evidence', address by Mervyn King •'Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International •Historical Comparison', paper by Rogoff and Reinhart •'Global Household Leverage, House Prices, and Consumption', FRBSF Economic Letter by Reuven Glick and Kevin Lansing •'Dealing With Household Debt', chapter by the IMF •'The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles', paper by Jorda, Schularick and Taylor •'Leveraged bubbles', paper by Jorda, Schularick and Taylor •'Housing and the Economy', 2019 speech by Guy Debelle •'Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets', paper by Vernon Smith, Gerry Suchanek and Arlington Williams •A Life of Experimental Economics, Volume I, by Vernon Smith •The example scenario of pessimists and optimists buying 100 identical houses is from House of Debt, by Amir Sufi and Atif Mian •'The Leverage Cycle', paper by John Geanakoplos •'Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment', paper by Brad Barber and Terry Odean •The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki •'The Clinton Housing Bubble', WSJ article by Vernon Smith •''We're heartbroken': home in same family for 93 years passes in', 2018 The Daily Telegraph article •'Why are we so worried about household debt?',

Policymakers have a tried-and-true game plan for jump-starting the economy in times of severe recession: Push stimulus packages and lower interest rates so Americans will borrow and spend. But economist Amir Sufi says the way we traditionally address a recession is deeply flawed. He argues that by encouraging "sugar-rush" solutions, the nation is putting poor and middle-class Americans and the entire economy at even greater risk. This week we look at the role of debt as a hidden driver of recessions, and how we might create a more stable system.

Anat Admati is a professor of finance and economics at Stanford University, and is well-known for her work on leveraging debt in our financial system and how it makes our economy more susceptible to shocks. She’s also a co-author of the popular book, *The Banker’s New Clothes: What Went Wrong with Banking and What to Do About It*. Anat joins Macro Musings again to talk about the COVID-19 crisis from the debt perspective, how the Fed and Congress have responded so far, and how their relief efforts should have been focused differently.      The transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Anat’s Twitter: @anatadmati Anat’s website: https://admati.people.stanford.edu/   Related Links:   Bonus segment with Anat: https://youtu.be/4xHmmgoURqg   *The Banker’s New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It* by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691162386/the-bankers-new-clothes   *The Leverage Ratchet Effect* by Anat Admati, Peter DeMarzo, Martin Hellwig, and Paul Pfleiderer https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12588   *Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts* by Oscar Jorda, Mortiz Schularick, and Alan Taylor https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-23.pdf   *Coronavirus Crisis Lays Bare the Risks of Financial Leverage, Again” by Martin Wolf https://www.ft.com/content/098dcd60-8880-11ea-a01c-a28a3e3fbd33   *House of Debt: How They (And You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again* by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo20832545.html   *Collateral Frameworks: The Open Secret of Central Banks* by Kjell Nyborg https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/collateral-frameworks/DE8BACD87F364A66DD496F601BE92FE7   *Bankruptcy for Banks: A Sound Concept That Needs Fine-Tuning* by Mark Roe and David Skeel https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/dealbook/bankruptcy-for-banks-a-sound-concept-that-needs-fine-tuning.html   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Amir Sufi is the Bruce Lindsay Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Greg Davis, CIO of Vanguard, on no-fee funds, the economy, and current investment strategy. Steve Englander, Global Head of G-10 FX Research for Standard Charter Bank, and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, on the China yuan. Amir Sufi, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Chicago Booth School, on why more leverage leads to slower future growth and increases the likelihood of a crash. Tom Gimbel, CEO of LaSalle Network, on why wages stay down in the best job market he's ever seen.

Do you have your finger on the current state of economics and what's going on with interest rates? Don't miss this episode of Lykken on Lending with our Hot Topic guests Logan Mohtashami and Les Parker. You'll hear them dive into details about where we've come from as we started 2018, where things are currently positioned, and some of the indications to where rates are going and how you can prepare for this impact on the mortgage industry! Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. His work has been published by Benzinga.com, Business Insider, and in his own highly respected blog, LoganMohtashami- Financial Truth. His blog articles have been reposted by economic insider sites such as David Stockman's Contra Corner, dshort.com, and Advisor Perspectives. Mothashami's work is frequently quoted in HousingWire, BankRate.com, AmericanBanker, and by housing experts such as Danielle DiMartino, Amir Sufi, (Booth School of Business), Anthony Sanders (George Mason University) and reporters from CNBC and the Wall Street Journal. Les Parker served as the Senior Vice President of Industry Relations and Consulting at LoanLogics, a technology and services provider focused on improving mortgage loan quality, performance, and reliability throughout the loan lifecycle. His responsibilities included managing the company's life of loan analytics and monitoring capabilities, overseeing consulting services, contributor to strategic planning team, and communicating with industry leaders to develop and maintain positive relationships.  He focused on identifying threats and strategic opportunities. Read More Here Do you have your finger on the current state of economics and what's going on with interest rates? Don't miss this episode of Lykken on Lending with our Hot Topic guests Logan Mohtashami and Les Parker. You'll hear them dive into details about where we've come from as we started 2018, where things are currently positioned, and some of the indications to where rates are going and how you can prepare for this impact on the mortgage industry! Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. His work has been published by Benzinga.com, Business Insider, and in his own highly respected blog, LoganMohtashami- Financial Truth. His blog articles have been reposted by economic insider sites such as David Stockman's Contra Corner, dshort.com, and Advisor Perspectives. Mothashami's work is frequently quoted in HousingWire, BankRate.com, AmericanBanker, and by housing experts such as Danielle DiMartino, Amir Sufi, (Booth School of Business), Anthony Sanders (George Mason University) and reporters from CNBC and the Wall Street Journal. Les Parker served as the Senior Vice President of Industry Relations and Consulting at LoanLogics, a technology and services provider focused on improving mortgage loan quality, performance, and reliability throughout the loan lifecycle. His responsibilities included managing the company's life of loan analytics and monitoring capabilities, overseeing consulting services, contributor to strategic planning team, and communicating with industry leaders to develop and maintain positive relationships.  He focused on identifying threats and strategic opportunities. Read More Here

Do you have your finger on the current state of economics and what's going on with interest rates? Don't miss this episode of Lykken on Lending with our Hot Topic guests Logan Mohtashami and Les Parker. You'll hear them dive into details about where we've come from as we started 2018, where things are currently positioned, and some of the indications to where rates are going and how you can prepare for this impact on the mortgage industry! Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. His work has been published by Benzinga.com, Business Insider, and in his own highly respected blog, LoganMohtashami- Financial Truth. His blog articles have been reposted by economic insider sites such as David Stockman’s Contra Corner, dshort.com, and Advisor Perspectives. Mothashami’s work is frequently quoted in HousingWire, BankRate.com, AmericanBanker, and by housing experts such as Danielle DiMartino, Amir Sufi, (Booth School of Business), Anthony Sanders (George Mason University) and reporters from CNBC and the Wall Street Journal. Les Parker served as the Senior Vice President of Industry Relations and Consulting at LoanLogics, a technology and services provider focused on improving mortgage loan quality, performance, and reliability throughout the loan lifecycle. His responsibilities included managing the company’s life of loan analytics and monitoring capabilities, overseeing consulting services, contributor to strategic planning team, and communicating with industry leaders to develop and maintain positive relationships.  He focused on identifying threats and strategic opportunities. Read More Here

The largest asset class in the United States is owner-occupied real estate, yet options for homeowners accessing this are very binary right now: either own 100% of your home (with a mortgage), or own nothing. And when people do “own”, that ownership is often skewed by debt. Of course, debt works out great for some, given their risk profiles and potential upside (if the house keeps appreciating); but the downside risk and costs are disproportionately borne by the homeowner. And millennials can't even enter the housing market in the first place. So how can technology help address a system skewed by debt financing, by letting homeowners sell fractions of equity to unlock wealth without necessarily borrowing against their homes? How can such new approaches help homeowners and financers better align risk and incentives, and unlock a whole new asset class for all kinds of investors? How can they help avoid mortgage crises around the world, and the macroeconomic impact of reduced spending, lost jobs, and more? And finally, what is the role of policy here … especially since the government is de facto subsidizer of certain home finance products over others. We discuss all this and more in this episode of the a16z Podcast, featuring general partner Alex Rampell; CEO & co-founder of Point, Eddie Lim; and Atif Mian, professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University who also co-authored (with Amir Sufi) the book House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again — in conversation with deal and investing team partner Angela Strange.

This multi-disciplinary symposium brings together leading scholars who will share their research and engage in conversation about the role of religion in addressing rising income inequality—an issue that impacts millions of people. During the 1960s and 1970s, 9-10% of total income went to the top one-percent of Americans. By 2007, this share had risen to 23.5%. Even before 2008 and the so-called Great Recession, the wages of the average worker in the U.S., adjusted for inflation, had been stagnant for three decades. How are the religions contributing to the complex mix of factors responsible for this state of affairs? Part 2 includes a presentation by Amir Sufi, the Bruce Lindsay Professor of Economics and Public Policy University of Chicago Booth School of Business Amir Sufi's research focuses on finance and macroeconomics. In addition to his position at Chicago Booth, Sufi is also Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He serves as an associate editor for the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. He has written articles published in the American Economic Review, the Journal of Finance, and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. His recent research on household debt and the economy has been profiled in the Economist, the Financial Times, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal. It has also been presented to policy-makers at the Federal Reserve, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, & Urban Affairs, and the White House Council of Economic Advisors. He is the co-author, with Atif Mian, of House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again (2014 Sponsored by the Martin Marty Center for the Advanced Study of Religion.

Conversation with Profs. Amir Sufi and Paul M. Vaaler The latest podcast features two of the speakers who will be featured at the upcoming Interdisciplinary Academic Symposium on Debt as ABI Executive Director Samuel J. Gerdano talks with Profs. Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago and Paul M. Vaaler of the University of Minnesota. Sponsored by ABI and the University of Illinois, the Symposium taking place May 2-3 will feature leading U.S. and international scholars talking about debt from a wide range of academic disciplines. Prof. Vaaler's presentation focuses on how and why credit assessors get it wrong when judging the risk of borrowers, while Prof. Sufi attributes the mortgage default crisis in large part to the degree of separation between borrower and lender via the securitization process.

Robert Peston tests the arguments made by the authors of a new book who claim the financial crisis was caused by exploding household debt - not by the banks. But are they right? Now the BBC's Economics Editor, he witnessed at first hand every twist and turn of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. He first exposed the crisis at Northern Rock as well as revealing the failure of Lehman Brothers. This makes him the ideal interviewer to probe the arguments and conclusions of "The House of Debt", a radical new study of the recession and the lessons to be learnt from it. In discussion with the book's authors, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi, he subjects their arguments to rigorous scrutiny. They challenge the conventional wisdom that the banks were to blame for the recession in the US and UK. They argue that the real villain was the doubling between 2000 and 2007 in total American household debt to $14 trillion. Much of this was owed by borrowers with the poorest credit ratings. When the house price bubble burst and incomes also fell, these households suddenly stopped spending and plunged the US economy into deep recession. By this argument, the banks weren't the real problem. And yet, thanks in large part to their lobbying power, they received help which would have been better directed at helping indebted households. If correct, this means governments and central banks should fundamentally reappraise how they tackle future downturns, focusing much more on households and much less on bankers. For many, this may sound highly attractive. But does the new analysis pass muster with Robert Peston? Producer Simon Coates.