Podcasts about national bureau

I det här avsnittet tar vi avstamp i tre forskningsartiklar om hur generativa AI-verktyg som ChatGPT påverkar vårt tänkande, till synes i en negativ riktning, genom cognitive offloading (kognitiv avlastning) eller till och med cognitive surrender. Att AI tar över kognitivt krävande arbete behöver inte betyda att vi blir dummare - tvärtom - men det beror lite på hur vi hanterar verktygen och vad vi gör med vår frigjorda kapacitet.LÄNKAR:Kosmyna, N., Hauptmann, E., Yuan, Y. T., Situ, J., Liao, X. H., Beresnitzky, A. V., ... & Maes, P. (2025). Your brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of cognitive debt when using an AI assistant for essay writing task. arXiv preprint arXiv:2506.08872, 4.Gerlich, M. (2025). AI tools in society: Impacts on cognitive offloading and the future of critical thinking. Societies, 15(1), 6.Shaw, S. D., & Nave, G. (2026). Thinking-Fast, Slow, and Artificial: How AI is Reshaping Human Reasoning and the Rise of Cognitive Surrender. Available at SSRN 6097646.Agarwal, N., Moehring, A., Rajpurkar, P., & Salz, T. (2023). Combining human expertise with artificial intelligence: Experimental evidence from radiology (No. w31422). National Bureau of Economic Research.Moltbook was peak AI theater (MIT Technology Review)When Questions Become the Only Scarce Resource (Sebastian Galiani, Sebastian's Substack) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ukraine's cities were failing long before the Russian invasion began. Kyiv and Lviv ranked among the 40 most congested cities in the world, yet neither makes the top 100 by population. Ninety per cent of Ukraine's housing stock was built before 1990. Its urban infrastructure was designed for a Soviet economy and never properly adapted for the one that followed. So when reconstruction begins, the question is not simply how to repair what was there: it is whether repairing what was there is the right goal.Edward Glaeser of Harvard, Martina Kirchberger of Trinity College Dublin, and Andrii Parkhomenko of the University of Southern California argue that the most instructive precedent is not post-USSR Warsaw, or postwar Berlin, it is postwar Tokyo. Firebombed into ruin, Tokyo rebuilt in a way that was strikingly decentralised: master plans quickly abandoned, local communities empowered to combine small lots through land readjustment, and figure it out from the bottom up. Before the war, Ukraine's economic activity was already shifting away from heavy industry and the east, towards services and the west. Reconstruction that concentrates investment where the damage is greatest, rather than where people want to build a new life, would repair the buildings and miss the point.The research behind this episode:Glaeser, Edward L., Martina Kirchberger, and Andrii Parkhomenko. 2025. "Rebuilding Ukraine's Cities: Maximizing Benefits and Minimizing Costs." Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues, special issue: "What's Next for Ukraine?" To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim. 2026, "What's Next for Ukraine: Reconstruction." Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues (podcast). Assign this as extra listening: the citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestsEdward Glaeser is Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics at Harvard University and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He is one of the world's leading urban economists, with a research agenda spanning cities, housing markets, economic growth, and governance.Martina Kirchberger is a CEPR Research Affiliate and Assistant Professor in Economics at Trinity College Dublin. Her research focuses on structural transformation, urban economics, and development in low- and middle-income countries.Andrii Parkhomenko is Assistant Professor of Real Estate at the USC Marshall School of Business and a researcher at the Kyiv School of Economics. His work centers on urban and spatial economics, with a particular focus on housing markets and city growth.Research cited in this episodeUkraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment, World Bank Group, European Commission, and UN, 2024. The source of the physical damage figure cited in this episode: approximately $175 billion by the end of 2024, with estimates for end-2025 likely exceeding $200 billion. Some independent projections cited by Glaeser run to $500 billion or above.The concept of investing-in-investing, referenced by Kirchberger, originates in work by Paul Collier on how resource-rich developing countries can scale up capital investment effectively. It refers to the prior investments in institutions, skills, and capacity that must be made before large-scale capital flows can be productively absorbed. The implication for Ukraine: there is work to do now, before reconstruction begins at scale.The Tokyo land readjustment model, which Glaeser cited as the most instructive reconstruction precedent, allowed owners of small fragmented lots to pool their land, redevelop it jointly, and receive a share of the new property in exchange for their stake in the old. It enabled large-scale urban reconstruction without central expropriation, and without waiting for government direction. The mechanism remains in active use in Japanese urban planning.The Solidere reconstruction of central Beirut was raised as a cautionary counterexample: a centralised, top-down rebuild that produced a high-end commercial district with questionable benefit to ordinary Lebanese, and which substantially enriched its private shareholders. The contrast with Tokyo's decentralised model is the episode's sharpest illustration of what reconstruction can and cannot achieve when organised from above.More in the "What's Next for Ukraine?" seriesThis episode is the second in a three-part series based on papers presented at the inaugural Economic Policy winter conference, Paris, December 2025.Episode 1: Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld on the investment and financing challenge: $40 billion a year, debt restructuring as a prerequisite for private capital, and why the number is more achievable than it sounds.Episode 3: Demobilisation and the labour market: getting soldiers back into work without breaking the economy that kept the country going. Related reading on VoxEURebuilding cities in Ukraine: A VoxEU column on the urban reconstruction challenge, including the spatial decisions that will shape how Ukraine's cities develop in the decades after the war.A blueprint for the reconstruction of Ukraine: A comprehensive VoxEU overview of the reconstruction architecture: what institutions are needed, how international financing can be coordinated, and what the sequencing of investment should look like.Completing Ukraine's reconstruction architecture: On the remaining gaps in the international framework for financing and coordinating Ukraine's rebuild, and what needs to happen before reconstruction can begin at the required scale.Lessons for rebuilding Ukraine from economic recoveries after natural disasters: What the evidence from post-disaster reconstruction in other countries tells us about what works, what fails, and how quickly economies can return to their pre-shock trajectories.

Professor Jeffrey Sachs joins us to talk about his book, To Move the World: JFK's Quest for Peace. Jeffrey Sachs is the Director of The Earth Institute, Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was also Special Advisor to United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan on a group of poverty alleviation initiatives called the Millennium Development Goals. American Exception followers on Patreon, regardless of the tier, get first access to new episodes! Paid subscribers enjoy access to the entire library of the best historical analysis of deep events on the American Exception podcast.  Subscribe to our Patreon at https://patreon.com/americanexception We are also on youtube at https://www.youtube.com/@americanexception9407 Special thanks to: ·         Dana Chavarria, production ·         Casey Moore, graphics ·         Michelle Boley, animated intro ·         Mock Orange, music

Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Dr. Fiona Murray, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Co-Director of the Innovation Initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Fiona is an internationally recognized policy expert on innovation ecosystems and the transformation of investments in science and technology into deep-tech startup ventures that address global challenges. In addition to her roles at MIT, where she previously served as an Associate Dean for Innovation, she is Chair of the NATO Innovation Fund and an Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. She was awarded a Commander of the Order of the British Empire for her services to innovation and entrepreneurship in the United Kingdom. Fiona also serves on the UK Ministry of Defence Innovation Advisory Panel and the European Innovation Council Joint Expert Group and sits on a number of boards. We were thrilled to host Fiona to explore global markets, innovation ecosystems, and the shifting geopolitical landscape shaping technology and capital flows. In our conversation, Fiona shares her perspective on the intersection of geopolitics and innovation and how geopolitical shocks increasingly shape technology development and commercialization. She outlines the post-2016 shift toward framing priority technologies through the lens of national and economic security, and the growing geopolitical constraints facing entrepreneurs. Drawing on discussions at the Munich Security Conference, Fiona highlights Europe's strong talent base alongside structural constraints, including smaller venture capital pools, fragmented markets, pension fund limitations, and bureaucratic procurement processes. We explore how defense and security startups think about U.S. versus European capital and transatlantic expansion, the growing importance of dual-use investment, and resilience as a business case. Fiona explains NATO's two-pronged innovation strategy and emphasizes the need for a “resilience premium” to support domestic and allied production. We discuss China's competitive innovation model, industrial policy lessons for the West, and the need to scale critical technologies to reduce supply chain dependence and rebuild manufacturing capacity across allied markets. Fiona also shares her perspective at MIT, where students are increasingly prioritizing defense, security, and resilience, alongside energy and climate reframed through critical minerals and system resilience, with AI integration across disciplines. We cover AI's role in lowering experimentation costs through simulation, large-company AI execution pitfalls, drone and autonomy lessons from Ukraine, and how to avoid overspending on AI. We close by asking where she sees innovation over the next decade, which she describes as “innovation at the extremes,” including fusion energy, Arctic navigation and mining, space commercialization, and other frontier environments. It was a fascinating discussion and we greatly appreciate Fiona for sharing her valuable time and insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that this week is centered on Tuesday's State of the Union address and the policy implications that follow. On the bond market front, the 10-year remains steady, with traders' attention turning to Friday's PPI report. On the crude oil market front, WTI is trading at ~$66/bbl as markets weigh the potential for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal versus whether the U.S. follows through on its threat of limited military strikes. WTI price could fall to low-$60/bbl if a nuclear deal is reached or rise to $70/bbl on escalation. The DJIA and S&P 500 are both up marginally since the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's global tariffs last Friday. Technology stocks have staged a modest rebound after several weeks of underperformance. Energy has outperformed over the past week but has underperformed since last Friday's tariff announcement. E&Ps will dominate

Interview recorded - 19th of February, 2026On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Barry Eichengreen. Barry is a renowned economist and Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he has taught since 1987. He is also the author of many books, including the upcoming book “Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto”During our conversation we spoke about his thoughts on the economy, the K-shaped economy, geopolitical shift, move away from the US dollar, what it means for the future and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Overview of the economy2:18 - K-shaped economy3:41 - Geopolitical shift6:13 - Europe becoming a world power?9:23 - US currency12:53 - China be trusted?14:58 - Precious metals movements17:09 - Next reserve currencies?19:58 - US Dollar devaluing21:47 - Bifurcating currency world23:56 - Influence for writing the book?25:58 - Any surprises?28:00 - One message to takeaway?Barry Eichengreen is George C. Pardee & Helen N. Pardee Chair and Distinguished Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he has taught since 1987. He is a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, Massachusetts) and Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (London, England). In 1997-98 he was Senior Policy Advisor at the International Monetary Fund. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (class of 1997). Professor Eichengreen is the convener of the Bellagio Group of academics and economic officials and chair of the Academic Advisory Committee of the Peterson Institute of International Economics. He has held Guggenheim and Fulbright Fellowships and has been a fellow of the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (Palo Alto) and the Institute for Advanced Study (Berlin). He is a regular monthly columnist for Project Syndicate. His books include The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018), How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future, with Livia Chitu and Arnaud Mehl, (2017), The Korean Economy: From a Miraculous Past to a Sustainable Future (Harvard East Asian Monographs) with Wonhyuk Lim, Yung Chul Park and Dwight H. Perkins, (2015), Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges, co-edited with Masahiro Kawai, (2015), Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession, and the Uses-and Misuses-of History, (2015). He was awarded the Economic History Association's Jonathan R.T. Hughes Prize for Excellence in Teaching in 2002 and the University of California at Berkeley Social Science Division's Distinguished Teaching Award in 2004. He is also the recipient of a doctor honoris causa from the American University in Paris.Barry Eichengreen - Website - https://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/X - https://x.com/B_EichengreenBook - https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691280530/money-beyond-borders?_glWTFinance - Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

AI had little to no impact on productivity in the past 3 years.This was according to a National Bureau of Economic Research survey released in February 2006 of 6,000 CEOs and executives across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia. Instead of throwing fruit at us, watch or listen as Enterprise Business Agility Consultant Om Patel and Product Manager Brian Orlando discuss why it won't be the loudest Silicon Valley CEO helping us make the most out of these new tools and technology, but boring old process improvement and org design!Yes, the current research-backed consensus (we review more such articles and research) is that AI adoption doesn't lead to productivity gains, but executives are going to still buy it anyway - they've got "positive vibes."

Every wave of new technology has come with the same promise: productivity rises, and everyone benefits. That's not how it usually plays out. This week, we're resharing our conversation with MIT economist David Autor, one of the world's leading experts on how technological change reshapes labor markets. Autor challenges the familiar story that innovation inevitably destroys good jobs, arguing instead that AI could expand human expertise and help rebuild pathways into the middle class — if the gains are broadly shared. As companies race to adopt AI and workers wonder what comes next, this episode offers a clearer way to think about the future of work: technology doesn't determine economic outcomes. The rules we build around it do. David Autor is a labor economist and professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies how technological change and globalization affect workers. He is also co-director of the MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative and the National Bureau of Economic Research Labor Studies Program. Social Media: @davidautor.bsky.social @davidautor Further reading:  NOEMA - AI Could Actually Help Rebuild The Middle Class New York Times - How One Tech Skeptic Decided A.I. Might Benefit the Middle Class Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Facebook: Pitchfork Economics Podcast Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics TikTok: @pitchfork_econ YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer Substack: ⁠The Pitch⁠

A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research spotlights how immigrants may be shaping the health and mortality rates of older Americans. Researchers found that a roughly 25% increase in immigration to the United States could prevent nearly 5,000 deaths among seniors 65 and over. Today, we'll unpack the findings. But first, an ominous tale of AI destruction captured the imagination of the public — and stock market traders.

A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research spotlights how immigrants may be shaping the health and mortality rates of older Americans. Researchers found that a roughly 25% increase in immigration to the United States could prevent nearly 5,000 deaths among seniors 65 and over. Today, we'll unpack the findings. But first, an ominous tale of AI destruction captured the imagination of the public — and stock market traders.

Whether it be in politics, public health, or corporate finance, why are people more likely to interpret facts or data in a way that fits their preconceived notions about the world as opposed to searching for the fundamental truth?  A new paper from the Harvard Business School called, Sharing Models to Interpret Data (by Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam)studies the propensity for people to adopt interpretations to data based on their community's beliefs, and why this can lead to less accurate conclusions. Hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen are joined by the paper's co-author  Adi Sunderam, who is a professor of corporate finance at Harvard Business School, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a co-editor of the Journal of Finance. The conversation covers the complexity of Bayesian updating and how the process is improperly deployed in today's thinking, not only in corporate decision-making but also on a sociological level. They also discuss Sunderam's model for explaining how people interpret data, why people are more likely to fall into group-belief dynamics, and if there are any interventions that would lead to better decision-making.  Read Adi Sunderam and Joshua Schwartzstein's paper: Sharing Models to Interpret Data  Find All Else Equal on the web:  https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ted Joyce is a Professor of Economics at Baruch College and the Graduate Center, the City University of New York and a Research Associate in the National Bureau of Economic Research's program in Health Economics. He has published extensively in the area economic demography and reproductive health policy.  His work on abortion policy has appeared in the Journal of Political Economy, New England Journal of Medicine, the Journal of the American Medical Association, the Journal of Human Resources and the Review of Economics and Statistics. His most recent work is on the evaluation of programs to improve the academic outcomes of low-income students in higher-education. Dr. Joyce is on the Editorial Board for the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Part 1 The discussion included the following topics: does tension exist between AI and online learning; whether AI transforms online learning into something more effective; role played by AI in measuring student performance; and determining certainty that the work produced by a student is by that individual.      

A new study confirms Seattle's 2024 'Gig Worker' law has been a miserable failure. The National Bureau of Economic Research study showed higher per-delivery pay was offset by fewer deliveries and lower tips. Active drivers saw no net gain in monthly earnings. DoorDash reported a decline of 30,000 orders, while UberEats saw a 30 percent drop in order volume. Drivers earned less than half of what they had prior to the ordinance's passage. While per-task base pay doubled, driver tips decreased, and fewer tasks were completed. The law, intended to help gig workers, has backfired, leading to increased wait times and more idle time. Seattle's attempt to regulate the gig economy has resulted in unintended consequences, harming the very workers it sought to protect.

Depending on one's outlook and relationship status (and a willingness to spend lavishly on romantic gestures), Valentine's Day is an annual ritual to be loved or loathed. But is it living up to its unstated end goal – i.e., romance blossoming into love and commitment, which in turn leads to parenthood? Valerie Ramey, an economist and the Hoover Institution's Thomas Sowell Senior Fellow, looks at the economic engine that is Valentines Day (literally “a day of wine and roses”), the various social factors that've contributed to America's declining birth rate, plus why it is that modern-day parents engage in what she calls the "rug rat race” – mothers and fathers raising children in a more hands-on manner so as to assure their progeny are admitted to top-flight universities. Recorded on February 12, 2026. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Valerie Ramey is the Thomas Sowell Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.  She is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy and Research, a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a Fellow of the Econometric Society.  Ramey has published numerous scholarly and policy-relevant articles on macroeconomic topics such as the sources of business cycles, the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, the effects oil price shocks, and the impact of volatility on growth.  She has also written numerous articles on trends in wage inequality and trends in time use, such as the increase in time investments in children by educated parents.  Her work has been featured in major media, such as the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. Bill Whalen, the Virginia Hobbs Carpenter Distinguished Policy Fellow in Journalism and a Hoover Institution research fellow since 1999, writes and comments on campaigns, elections and governance with an emphasis on California and America's political landscapes. Whalen writes on politics and current events for various national publications, as well as Hoover's California On Your Mind web channel. Whalen hosts Hoover's Matters of Policy & Politics podcast and serves as the moderator of Hoover's GoodFellows broadcast exploring history, economics, and geopolitical dynamics. RELATED SOURCES The Rug Rat Race by Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey ABOUT THE SERIES Matters of Policy & Politics, a podcast from the Hoover Institution, examines the direction of federal, state, and local leadership and elections, with an occasional examination of national security and geopolitical concerns, all featuring insightful analysis provided by Hoover Institution scholars and guests. To join our newsletter and be the first to tune into the next episode, visit Matters of Policy & Politics.

Kung ikaw ay OFW o permanent resident sa Australia, hindi na kailangang pumunta sa Philippine Consulate office para mag-renew ng iyong National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) Clearance. Maaaring gawin ang buong proseso online kung mula 2017 na-issue ang luma mong NBI Clearance. Pakinggan ang gabay sa proseso.

Disproving the popular narrative that shootings are the calculated acts of malicious or desperate people, Ludwig shows how most shootings actually grow out of a more fleeting source: interpersonal conflict, especially arguments. By examining why some arguments turn tragic while others don't, Ludwig shows gun violence to be more circumstantial—and more solvable—than our traditional approaches lead us to believe.Drawing on decades of research and Ludwig's immersive fieldwork in Chicago, including “countless hours spent in schools, parks, playgrounds, housing developments, courtrooms, jails, police stations, police cars, and lots and lots of McDonald's,” Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence (University of Chicago Press, 2025) is a breakthrough work at the cutting edge of behavioral economics. As Ludwig shows, progress on gun violence doesn't require America to solve every other social problem first; it only requires that we find ways to intervene in the places and the ten-minute windows where human behaviors predictably go haywire. Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. He is the Pritzker Director of the University of Chicago's Crime Lab, codirector of the National Bureau of Economic Research's working group on the economics of crime, elected member of the National Academy of Medicine, and a member of the Committee on Law and Justice of the National Academies of Science. Alfred Marcus is the Edson Spencer Professor at the Carlson School, University of Minnesota. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Disproving the popular narrative that shootings are the calculated acts of malicious or desperate people, Ludwig shows how most shootings actually grow out of a more fleeting source: interpersonal conflict, especially arguments. By examining why some arguments turn tragic while others don't, Ludwig shows gun violence to be more circumstantial—and more solvable—than our traditional approaches lead us to believe.Drawing on decades of research and Ludwig's immersive fieldwork in Chicago, including “countless hours spent in schools, parks, playgrounds, housing developments, courtrooms, jails, police stations, police cars, and lots and lots of McDonald's,” Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence (University of Chicago Press, 2025) is a breakthrough work at the cutting edge of behavioral economics. As Ludwig shows, progress on gun violence doesn't require America to solve every other social problem first; it only requires that we find ways to intervene in the places and the ten-minute windows where human behaviors predictably go haywire. Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. He is the Pritzker Director of the University of Chicago's Crime Lab, codirector of the National Bureau of Economic Research's working group on the economics of crime, elected member of the National Academy of Medicine, and a member of the Committee on Law and Justice of the National Academies of Science. Alfred Marcus is the Edson Spencer Professor at the Carlson School, University of Minnesota. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science

Disproving the popular narrative that shootings are the calculated acts of malicious or desperate people, Ludwig shows how most shootings actually grow out of a more fleeting source: interpersonal conflict, especially arguments. By examining why some arguments turn tragic while others don't, Ludwig shows gun violence to be more circumstantial—and more solvable—than our traditional approaches lead us to believe.Drawing on decades of research and Ludwig's immersive fieldwork in Chicago, including “countless hours spent in schools, parks, playgrounds, housing developments, courtrooms, jails, police stations, police cars, and lots and lots of McDonald's,” Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence (University of Chicago Press, 2025) is a breakthrough work at the cutting edge of behavioral economics. As Ludwig shows, progress on gun violence doesn't require America to solve every other social problem first; it only requires that we find ways to intervene in the places and the ten-minute windows where human behaviors predictably go haywire. Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. He is the Pritzker Director of the University of Chicago's Crime Lab, codirector of the National Bureau of Economic Research's working group on the economics of crime, elected member of the National Academy of Medicine, and a member of the Committee on Law and Justice of the National Academies of Science. Alfred Marcus is the Edson Spencer Professor at the Carlson School, University of Minnesota. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/american-studies

Disproving the popular narrative that shootings are the calculated acts of malicious or desperate people, Ludwig shows how most shootings actually grow out of a more fleeting source: interpersonal conflict, especially arguments. By examining why some arguments turn tragic while others don't, Ludwig shows gun violence to be more circumstantial—and more solvable—than our traditional approaches lead us to believe.Drawing on decades of research and Ludwig's immersive fieldwork in Chicago, including “countless hours spent in schools, parks, playgrounds, housing developments, courtrooms, jails, police stations, police cars, and lots and lots of McDonald's,” Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence (University of Chicago Press, 2025) is a breakthrough work at the cutting edge of behavioral economics. As Ludwig shows, progress on gun violence doesn't require America to solve every other social problem first; it only requires that we find ways to intervene in the places and the ten-minute windows where human behaviors predictably go haywire. Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. He is the Pritzker Director of the University of Chicago's Crime Lab, codirector of the National Bureau of Economic Research's working group on the economics of crime, elected member of the National Academy of Medicine, and a member of the Committee on Law and Justice of the National Academies of Science. Alfred Marcus is the Edson Spencer Professor at the Carlson School, University of Minnesota. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/public-policy

Disproving the popular narrative that shootings are the calculated acts of malicious or desperate people, Ludwig shows how most shootings actually grow out of a more fleeting source: interpersonal conflict, especially arguments. By examining why some arguments turn tragic while others don't, Ludwig shows gun violence to be more circumstantial—and more solvable—than our traditional approaches lead us to believe.Drawing on decades of research and Ludwig's immersive fieldwork in Chicago, including “countless hours spent in schools, parks, playgrounds, housing developments, courtrooms, jails, police stations, police cars, and lots and lots of McDonald's,” Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence (University of Chicago Press, 2025) is a breakthrough work at the cutting edge of behavioral economics. As Ludwig shows, progress on gun violence doesn't require America to solve every other social problem first; it only requires that we find ways to intervene in the places and the ten-minute windows where human behaviors predictably go haywire. Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. He is the Pritzker Director of the University of Chicago's Crime Lab, codirector of the National Bureau of Economic Research's working group on the economics of crime, elected member of the National Academy of Medicine, and a member of the Committee on Law and Justice of the National Academies of Science. Alfred Marcus is the Edson Spencer Professor at the Carlson School, University of Minnesota. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Disproving the popular narrative that shootings are the calculated acts of malicious or desperate people, Ludwig shows how most shootings actually grow out of a more fleeting source: interpersonal conflict, especially arguments. By examining why some arguments turn tragic while others don't, Ludwig shows gun violence to be more circumstantial—and more solvable—than our traditional approaches lead us to believe.Drawing on decades of research and Ludwig's immersive fieldwork in Chicago, including “countless hours spent in schools, parks, playgrounds, housing developments, courtrooms, jails, police stations, police cars, and lots and lots of McDonald's,” Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence (University of Chicago Press, 2025) is a breakthrough work at the cutting edge of behavioral economics. As Ludwig shows, progress on gun violence doesn't require America to solve every other social problem first; it only requires that we find ways to intervene in the places and the ten-minute windows where human behaviors predictably go haywire. Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. He is the Pritzker Director of the University of Chicago's Crime Lab, codirector of the National Bureau of Economic Research's working group on the economics of crime, elected member of the National Academy of Medicine, and a member of the Committee on Law and Justice of the National Academies of Science. Alfred Marcus is the Edson Spencer Professor at the Carlson School, University of Minnesota. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As inequality deepens, democratic institutions strain, and climate risk accelerates, it's becoming impossible to ignore a basic question: What is capitalism actually for? This week, we revisit our conversation with Harvard Business School professor Rebecca Henderson who argues that today's economic crises aren't the result of isolated failures, but of an economic system designed around the wrong goal—maximizing shareholder value at any cost. Drawing from her book Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire, Henderson makes the case that markets built around cooperation, dignity, and shared prosperity don't just serve the public good—they often outperform extractive, low-road models, while decades of trickle-down economics hollowed out institutions, rewarded cheating over value creation, and left businesses dependent on a society they are actively undermining. Together, they ask what it would take to build a new economic paradigm—one where firms exist to strengthen the communities, democracy, and planet they rely on to survive. Rebecca Henderson is the John and Natty McArthur University Professor at Harvard Business School, where she teaches the acclaimed course Reimagining Capitalism and explores how business can help build a more just, sustainable economy. She is the author of Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire, and a research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a fellow of the British Academy and American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and has served on the boards of major public companies. Social Media: @RebeccaReCap Further reading:  Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire TED Talk: To save the climate, we have to reimagine capitalism Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Facebook: Pitchfork Economics Podcast Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics TikTok: @pitchfork_econ YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer Substack: ⁠The Pitch⁠

It's been nearly ten years since Britain voted to leave the European Union. The run-up to the referendum was marked by competing claims regarding the consequences of Brexit, with Leave supporters claiming Brexit would restore British sovereignty over economic and social policies, while Remain advocates warned of self-inflicted economic harm. What have the actual consequences of Brexit been? And what lessons does it offer for nations seeking to disengage from the global economy today? Nicholas Bloom joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his recent research on these questions. Nick is the William D. Eberle Professor in Economics at Stanford. He is also the Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

It's Thursday, January 22nd, A.D. 2026. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 140 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com. I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Jonathan Clark Chinese-American Christians pray for those in China Chinese-American Christians are praying for their persecuted brothers and sisters back in China. Earlier this month, Harvest Chinese Christian Church in Los Angeles held an event called “Fasting Prayer Meeting for Persecuted Churches in China.” The event comes shortly after Chinese authorities detained the leaders of Early Rain Covenant Church. The congregation, like many “unregistered” churches in China, faces relentless persecution. International Christian Concern commented, “Please pray for these house church members in China, especially those who have been imprisoned or are missing after the police raids.” 1 Corinthians 12:26 says, “If one member suffers, all the members suffer with it; or if one member is honored, all the members rejoice with it.” China's birth rate plunged to a record low in 2025 Speaking of China, the country's birth rates plunged to a record low in 2025. New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics found there were 7.92 million births last year, down 17% from 2024. The birth rate in 2025 was 5.63 per 1,000 people. Meanwhile, the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people. Despite China's recent attempts to incentivize families to have children, the population has now fallen for the fourth consecutive year. In Genesis 1:28, God commanded, “Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the Earth and subdue it.” British Christian nurse vindicated for calling a man “Mister” In the United Kingdom, a National Health Service hospital recently dropped its case against a Christian nurse. Jennifer Melle worked at St. Helier Hospital in south London. She faced suspension after referring to a man, pretending to be a woman, as “Mister.” Listen to comments she made after her vindication. MELLE: “I am deeply relieved and grateful to hear that St Helier [Hospital] has confirmed it would no longer take further action against me. This has been an incredibly long and painful journey.   “Today, I want to give thanks, first and foremost, to our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, who has sustained me every step of the way.” Young Canadians are planning to vote conservative Young adults in Canada are planning to vote conservative in the country's next election. A survey by Abacus Data found 50% of Canadians aged 18 to 29 would vote for the Conservative Party. Only 27% of that demographic would vote for the Liberal Party. The strongest support for the Liberals comes from people over 60. A decade of liberal polices has led to higher living costs, higher inflation, and higher taxes. Trump: “I will not use force” to get Greenland Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.  Notably, he announced that the United States would not use force to acquire Greenland. TRUMP: “We probably won't get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force, where we would be, frankly, unstoppable. But I won't do that. Okay. Now everyone's saying, ‘Oh, good!' “That's probably the biggest statement I've made because people thought I would use force. I don't have to use force. I don't want to use force. I won't use force.” President Trump also announced he will not be imposing tariffs on Denmark over the acquisition of Greenland. He wrote on Truth Social, “We have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region.” Arrests coming for Minneapolis leftists who invaded church service The Trump administration is investigating anti-ICE protesters who disrupted a house of worship in Minneapolis on Sunday. Kristi Noem, the Department of Homeland Security Secretary, wrote on X, “Arrests coming. … The First Amendment protects speech and peaceful assembly – not rioting. … These agitators will be held accountable.” The Department of Justice is also investigating the incident at Cities Church. Major snowstorm hits East Coast to Rocky Mountains The National Weather Service is expecting a significant winter storm to hit a large portion of the U.S. starting Friday. Heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain is forecast all the way from the southern Rockies to the East Coast.  Much of the U.S. is already experiencing dangerously cold weather. Over 40 million people were under cold weather alerts as of Tuesday. Even parts of Florida are under alert. 463rd anniversary of Heidelberg Catechism And finally, this week marks the 463rd anniversary of the Heidelberg Catechism. The Protestant catechism was commissioned by Frederick III, the ruler of Germany's most influential province of Palatinate. The purpose of the catechism was for instructing the youth and for guiding pastors and teachers The catechism was the product of two young Protestant scholars—Zacharius Ursinus and Caspar Olevianus. The catechism was approved by a church synod in Heidelberg, Germany and published in German on January 19, 1563. It would become the most widely used catechism of the Reformation period.  The catechism's opening question reads, “What is your only comfort in life and death?” The answer begins, “That I am not my own, but belong—body and soul, in life and in death—to my faithful Savior Jesus Christ.” Romans 14:8 says, “For if we live, we live to the Lord; and if we die, we die to the Lord. Therefore, whether we live or die, we are the Lord's.”  Close And that's The Worldview on this Thursday, January 22nd, in the year of our Lord 2026. Follow us on X or subscribe for free by Spotify, Amazon Music, or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

China's economy demonstrated strong resilience in 2025, with growth holding firm despite mounting external pressures and internal structural adjustments, while new growth drivers are taking shape to support sustainable expansion going forward, said officials and experts.政府工作人员和专家指出，2025年中国经济展现出强劲韧性，在外部压力不断加剧和内部结构调整的双重背景下，经济增长依然保持稳健，同时新的增长动力正在形成，为未来可持续扩张提供支撑。Official data released on Monday showed that China's gross domestic product grew 5 percent last year, meeting the country's annual target of around 5 percent. The hard-won performance, achieved amid heightened tariff pressures, has laid a solid foundation for a steady start to economic growth in 2026, reinforcing confidence that the world's second-largest economy remains on a stable trajectory.官方周一公布的数据显示，中国去年国内生产总值增长5%，实现了约5%的年度增长目标。在关税压力加剧的背景下取得的这一来之不易的成绩，为2026年经济增长平稳开局奠定了坚实基础，增强了市场信心，表明这个全球第二大经济体仍保持着稳定发展态势。As China enters the opening year of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period, economists said policymakers are set to press ahead with front-loaded fiscal support to boost domestic demand, alongside a moderately accommodative monetary stance aimed at lifting prices and easing financing costs.随着中国迎来第十五个五年规划（2026-2030年）的开局之年，经济学家指出，政策制定者将推进前置性财政支持以提振内需，同时采取适度宽松的货币政策立场，旨在提振物价并降低融资成本。The country's annual GDP came in at 140.19 trillion yuan ($20.13 trillion) in 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Chinese economy grew 4.5 percent year-on-year, following 4.8 percent growth in the third quarter.国家统计局数据显示，2025年中国国内生产总值（GDP）达140.19万亿元（合20.13万亿美元）。2025年第四季度，中国经济同比增长4.5%，此前第三季度增速为4.8%。Kang Yi, head of the NBS, said that the latest indicators fully demonstrate the Chinese economy's steady progress, resilience under pressure, and vitality in moving toward higher-quality and innovation-driven development.国家统计局局长康义表示，最新指标充分展现了中国经济稳步前进的态势、在压力下的韧性，以及在迈向更高质量、创新驱动发展道路上的活力。"China's average annual contribution to global economic growth stood at around 30 percent throughout the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period. With a complete industrial system, China has played a stabilizing role in global supply chains and injected much-needed stability into a world economy undergoing turbulence and transformation," he said.中国在“十四五”规划（2021-2025年）期间，对全球经济增长的年均贡献率保持在30%左右。凭借完整的产业链体系，中国在全球供应链中发挥着稳定器作用，为动荡转型中的世界经济注入了急需的稳定力量。Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China, said that China's economy has delivered "hard-won" results in 2025, featuring breakthroughs in technological advances and emerging consumption phenomena, setting the stage for a 2026 GDP growth target possibly at 4.5 percent to 5 percent.中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，2025年中国经济取得“来之不易”的成果，技术进步实现突破性进展，消费呈现新形态，为2026年GDP增速目标设定4.5%至5%的区间奠定基础。"In 2025, when people talked about China, things like DeepSeek, Ne Zha 2, Unitree humanoid robots, the overseas expansion of innovative pharmaceuticals, and Jiangsu Football City League, or Suchao, all showed that China's economy has been full of highlights, whether in consumption recovery or technological innovation," Guan said.管涛表示：“在2025年，当人们谈论中国时，话题转向了诸如DeepSeek、《哪吒2》、宇树人形机器人、创新药出海、江苏城市足球联赛‘苏超'等新事物；焦点无论是消费复苏还是科技创新，都展现出中国经济的亮点纷呈；都无不印证着中国经济的蓬勃生机。”Citing the latest indicators, Sheana Yue, a senior economist at British think tank Oxford Economics, said that the fourth quarter's continued momentum appeared to be driven by stronger industrial activity and exports in December, which offset still weak domestic demand.英国智库牛津经济研究院高级经济学家岳喜娜援引最新指标指出，第四季度经济持续增长的动能似乎源于12月工业活动和出口的强劲表现，这抵消了国内需求依然疲软的影响。NBS data showed that China's value-added industrial output rose 5.2 percent in December, following 4.8 percent growth in November.国家统计局数据显示，中国12月工业增加值同比增长5.2%，高于11月的4.8%增速。"Our estimates suggested high-tech manufacturing, including transport equipment, electrical machinery and electronics manufacturing, continued to outperform at the end of 2025," Yue said.岳喜娜：“我们的估算显示，包括运输设备、电机和电子制造在内的高科技制造业，在2025年底仍保持着强劲增长态势。”According to the NBS, retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, increased 0.9 percent in December, while China's fixed-asset investment decreased 3.8 percent in 2025.据国家统计局数据显示，作为消费支出重要指标的零售额在12月增长0.9%，而2025年中国固定资产投资同比下降3.8%。Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said that looking ahead to 2026, the impact of high tariffs imposed by the United States on global trade and China's exports is expected to become more pronounced, weakening the contribution of external demand to economic growth and requiring domestic demand to step in more decisively.东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，展望2026年，美国高关税对全球贸易和中国出口的影响预计将更加显著，这将削弱外需对经济增长的贡献，需要内需更果断地接棒。"We expect that, with more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies continuing to gain strength, consumption will accelerate further in 2026, and investment will stabilize after bottoming out," he said.王青表示：“随着更积极有效的宏观经济政策持续发力，预计2026年消费将进一步加速增长，投资将在触底后趋于稳定。”With 2026 marking the opening year of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic policy committee of the China Association of Policy Science, said that ensuring a smooth economic start will be critical, and called for stable, consistent and moderately forceful macro policies.2026年标志着中国第十五个五年规划的开局之年。中国政策科学研究会常务理事、经济政策委员会副主任徐洪才指出，确保经济平稳开局至关重要，呼吁实施稳定、连贯且力度适中的宏观政策。Fiscal policy should remain proactive, he said, suggesting that the fiscal deficit ratio remain at around 4 percent, supported by the continued issuance of long-term treasuries to boost consumption, improve public well-being and mitigate local government debt risks. He added that monetary policy should stay moderately accommodative, with room for further cuts to interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio.徐洪才表示，财政政策应保持积极，建议财政赤字率维持在4%左右，同时继续发行长期国债以提振消费、改善民生并缓解地方政府债务风险。他还指出，货币政策应保持适度宽松，存在进一步下调利率和存款准备金率的空间。Going forward, Xu said that China's economic growth in 2026 is expected to remain within a reasonable range, with improving quality, a more optimized structure and steady progress toward high-quality development.徐洪才表示，展望未来，2026年中国经济增长预计将保持在合理区间，质量不断提升，结构持续优化，朝着高质量发展稳步迈进。Choi Yong-ho, chief executive officer and chief happiness officer of South Korean entertainment technology company Galaxy Corp, said China's market holds virtually unlimited development potential. "It is creative, innovative and dynamic, and it is already at the global forefront in multiple industries."韩国娱乐科技独角兽Galaxy Corp首席执行官兼首席幸福官崔龙湖表示，中国市场蕴藏着几乎无限的发展潜力。“这个市场充满创造力、创新精神和活力，已在多个行业处于全球领先地位。”"China's strong capabilities in robotics and artificial intelligence are leading industrial development, and its younger generation represents a highly capable and promising talent base. With these advantages, I believe the Chinese market will continue to grow, with a very optimistic outlook," he said.崔龙湖表示：“中国在机器人和人工智能领域的强大实力正引领着工业发展，其年轻一代代表着一支能力出众、充满希望的人才队伍。凭借这些优势，我相信中国市场将继续增长，前景非常乐观。”humanoid robot/ˈhjuː.mə.nɔɪd/n.人形机器人trajectory/trəˈdʒek.tɚ.i/n.轨道；态势

Episode 96 On December 31, 1986, just hours before Puerto Rico would ring in the New Year, flames tore through the luxurious Dupont Plaza Hotel and Casino in San Juan. What began as a labor dispute escalated into one of the deadliest hotel fires in U.S. history, killing 97 people and injuring more than 140. In the aftermath, investigators would uncover arson, negligence, ignored safety recommendations, a chaotic evacuation, and a legal battle that reshaped fire codes across the hospitality industry. In this episode, we examine: The labor tensions and strike that set the stage for disaster The timeline of the fire and how it spread so rapidly How smoke and toxic gases became the primary killers Failures in life safety systems, egress, and emergency planning The investigation that quickly identified arson Criminal charges against arsonists Massive civil litigation and code reforms that followed Lessons learned in the context of other hotel/casino fires of the era The Crime to Burn Patreon - The Cult of Steve - is LIVE NOW! Go join and get all the unhinged you can handle. Click here to be sanctified.  Inner Sanctum Acknowledgments: Eternal gratitude to our Inner Sanctum patrons, Melanie Curtis, Jenny Mercer and Laura Pisciotta, for helping us bring light to the stories others would rather leave in the ashes. Listener discretion is advised. Background music by Not Notoriously Coordinated  Get your Crime to Burn Merch! https://crimetoburn.myspreadshop.com Please follow us on Instagram, X, Facebook, TikTok and Youtube for the latest news on this case. You can email us at crimetoburn@gmail.com We welcome any constructive feedback and would greatly appreciate a 5 star rating and review.  If you need a way to keep your canine contained, you can also support the show by purchasing a Pawious wireless dog fence using our affiliate link and use the code "crimetoburn" at checkout to receive 10% off. Pawious, because our dog Winston needed a radius, not a rap sheet.  Sources:  Video & Documentary Sources Dupont Plaza Hotel Arson Investigation. Señor Onion's Archives. YouTube, April 13, 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JyUjUoX_so Dupont Plaza Hotel Arson of 1986. Señor Onion's Archives. YouTube, October 21, 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJsFLgxuDJ8 Government / Technical / Legal Reports Nelson, Harold E. “An Engineering Analysis of the Early Stages of Fire Development — The Fire at the Dupont Plaza Hotel and Casino — December 31, 1986.” NBSIR 87-3560, National Bureau of Standards, Center for Fire Research, U.S. Department of Commerce, April 1987. Levy, Harold M. “The Dupont Plaza Hotel Fire Litigation: A Case Study in Cooperative Defense.” Alternatives to the High Cost of Litigation, Vol. 7, No. 12, December 1989, pp. 215–233. José Francisco Rivera-Lopez, Plaintiff, Appellant, v. United States of America, Defendant, Appellee. U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, 4 F.3d 982, September 15, 1993. https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/F3/4/982/525384/ (Note: First Circuit Local Rule 36.2(b)6 — Unpublished opinions may be cited only in related cases.) News & Contemporary Coverage (1987) “Teamsters Dispute with Dupont Plaza Dates Back Four Months.” UPI Archives, January 13, 1987. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/01/13/Teamsters-dispute-with-Dupont-Plaza-dates-back-four-months/7070215305413/ Brossy, Julie. “A Dupont Plaza Bar Boy Was Charged Today With…” UPI Archives, January 14, 1987. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/01/14/A-Dupont-Plaza-bar-boy-was-charged-today-with/8362537598800/ Hernandez, Moises. “Suspect in Hotel Fire Was Honored for Saving ‘Many Lives.'” UPI Archives, January 14, 1987. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/01/14/Suspect-in-hotel-fire-was-honored-for-saving-many-lives/2708537598800/ Gaulin, Edward J. “Defendants Plead Guilty in Dupont Plaza Hotel Fire.” UPI Archives, April 24, 1987. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/04/24/Defendants-plead-guilty-in-Dupont-Plaza-Hotel-fire/8801546235200/ Wilentz, Amy. “A New Year We'll Never Forget.” TIME, January 12, 1987. https://time.com/archive/6708028/a-new-year-well-never-forget/ Features, Retrospectives & Later Reporting Tepfer, Daniel. “A Vacation in Paradise Turns into Fiery Hell.” CTPost, Updated December 30, 2011. https://www.ctpost.com/news/article/a-vacation-in-paradise-turns-into-fiery-hell-2432149.php Reference / Encyclopedia & Summary Sources Dewey, Joseph. “Dupont Plaza Hotel Fire.” EBSCO Knowledge Advantage Research Starters, 2022. https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/law/dupont-plaza-hotel-fire “Dupont Plaza Hotel Arson.” Grokipedia. https://grokipedia.com/page/Dupont_Plaza_Hotel_arson

China's consumer inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in nearly three years in December, official data showed on Friday, signaling a stabilizing economy as recent stimulus measures continued to bolster domestic demand.Going forward, analysts said consumer inflation is expected to remain mild through 2026, leaving ample room for policymakers to step up macroeconomic adjustment to counter mounting uncertainties. Policy options include targeted measures to boost domestic demand and support innovation, as well as further cuts to the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates.The country's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rose by 0.8 percent year-on-year in December, following a 0.7 percent rise in November, marking the highest level since February 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday."China's latest consumer inflation data points to a continued strengthening in domestic demand, mainly driven by the impact of consumption-boosting policies and the release of demand ahead of the New Year holiday," said Tang Guang hua, an analyst at Shen yin & Wan guo Futures Co. "Meanwhile, the core CPI remained above 1 percent for four consecutive months in December, highlighting a steady improvement in consumption fundamentals."The improving inflation data has reflected the growing momentum of the Chinese economy, with the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank having raised their growth forecasts for China's economy.The IMF forecasts a 5 percent GDP expansion in 2025 and 4.5 percent for 2026, while Goldman Sachs said this week that it expects China's GDP to grow 4.8 percent in real terms in 2026, supported by a policy-backed investment rebound, the potential of service consumption, resilient export growth and a milder drag of the property sector.With economic momentum showing signs of improving, Chinese stocks moved higher on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index posting a solid gain of 0.92 percent to close at 4,120.43 points, topping the psychologically important 4,100 points to reach a decade high. Since the beginning of the year, the index has risen by 3.82 percent, indicating a continuous improvement in investor confidence.NBS data showed the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is deemed a better gauge of supply-demand conditions, rose 1.2 percent year-on-year in December, unchanged from November.Meanwhile, China's producer price index — which measures factory-gate prices — fell by 1.9 percent year-on-year in December, narrowing from a 2.2 percent drop in November, the NBS said.Tang from Shenyin & Wanguo Futures Co said the narrowing decline in factory-gate prices showed strengthening recovery momentum, signaling both improving industrial fundamentals and deeper structural optimization.He expects consumer prices to rise steadily on the back of continued consumption recovery and policy support, while PPI recovery momentum is set to strengthen further given the progress in building a unified national market, industrial restructuring and rising demand from emerging industries as key drivers, particularly for high-end manufacturing.As the NBS is set to release the economic indicators for December and the fourth quarter later this month, Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities, said China's economic growth is expected to have remained resilient toward the end of 2025, fueled by relatively strong production and a gradual recovery in demand.He said that economic activity likely picked up in December, with both domestic and external demand gradually improving and companies pushing to meet year-end targets. "That will help support China to achieve its full-year growth target of around 5 percent in 2025, while laying the groundwork for a strong start in 2026."During the recently held 2026 work conference of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank said it will continue to implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, underscoring its commitment to supporting high-quality economic development and promoting a reasonable rebound in prices.Li from Zheshang Securities said his team expects a 50 basis-point cut in the RRR and a 10 basis-point reduction in policy interest rates over the year.Li added that structural policy tools are expected to continue to play a key role, alongside stronger credit guidance to channel funding toward priority areas.Expanding domestic demand, advancing technological innovation and supporting micro, small and medium-sized enterprises are likely to remain the main focus of policy support in 2026, he said.

Ideally, college classrooms provide students with a comfortable but challenging environment in which diverse ideas and viewpoints are openly exchanged; the reality they experience, though, is often quite different. In this episode, David Laibson joins us to discuss how Harvard University is attempting to identify and address barriers to this ideal. David is the Robert I. Goldman Professor of Economics and a Faculty Dean of Lowell House. He has published dozens of heavily cited articles on a wide range of topics, including behavioral economics, self-regulation, behavior change, household finance, and aging. David is a Research Associate in the Aging, Asset Pricing, and Economic Fluctuations Working Group at the National Bureau of Economic Research, member of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and serves on numerous advisory boards. He has received Harvard's Phi Beta Kappa award and a Harvard College Professorship in recognition of his high quality teaching. David is also a co-author of popular textbooks on introductory economics and  a co-editor of the Handbook of Behavioral Economics. A transcript of this episode and show notes may be found at http://teaforteaching.com.

As we kick off 2026, the economic headlines are loud, but the real story is in the data and the incentives behind it. In this episode, Jeremy Houser sits down with Dr. Campbell Harvey, Duke professor and Research Affiliates Director of Research, known for early work on the inverted yield curve, to break down what matters most for growth, markets, and resilience in 2026. Campbell discusses: Why the U.S. fiscal picture raises the stakes for stronger real GDP growth Why tariffs function like a tax, plus when they may act more like “risk management” than growth policy Why “AI is just 1999 again” can be a misleading comparison, and what's different this time What a steepening yield curve may be signaling about long rates, inflation expectations, and growth ahead Why rebalancing is an active decision, and how mechanical timing can create hidden performance drag How products that limit downside exposure can fit into a broader, diversified approach His thoughts on Fixed Indexed Annuities And more Resources: AMP Path to Prosperity one-pager: https://insurmarkamp.com/jhouser/ (Click “Learn More”) Connect with Campbell Harvey: LinkedIn: Campbell Harvey Cam Harvey, PhD Connect with Jeremy Houser: jeremy.houser@simplicitygroup.com 713-808-8548 Schedule a Call Our Teams Website Connect with Jeremy @jeremyhouser_amp @jeremyhouserAMP About Our Guest: Campbell R. Harvey is a Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago. Professor Harvey has served as Partner and Director of Research for Research Affiliates, LLP, and Investment Strategy Advisor to Man Group, PLC, contributing to both research and product design. Professor Harvey received the 2015, 2016, 2022, and 2023 Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Award for the Best Article from the Journal of Portfolio Management for his research. He has also received ten Graham and Dodd Awards/Scrolls for excellence in financial writing from the CFA Institute. He has published over 125 scholarly articles on topics spanning investment finance, emerging markets, corporate finance, behavioral finance, financial econometrics, and computer science. For the past nine years, Professor Harvey taught Innovation and Cryptoventures – a course that focuses on the mechanics and applications of blockchain technology and web3. He offers a certificate in Decentralized Finance on Coursera. He also teaches the advanced elective Global Asset Allocation and Stock Selection which focuses on systematic investment strategies. Disclosure: 5078176 – 0126

China is accelerating its push toward a consumption-led economic model, with policymakers identifying the expansion of domestic demand as the key driver of GDP growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), economists and officials said.经济学家和相关官员表示，中国正加快向消费主导型经济模式转型，政策制定者已明确将扩大内需列为 “十五五” 规划时期（2026-2030 年）国内生产总值增长的核心驱动力。Following the tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference, which prioritized domestic demand for 2026, experts noted a strategic transition: China is moving beyond simple volume growth toward "structural optimization". This involves leveraging fiscal tools to boost household incomes and specifically targets the high-growth services sector to buffer against external uncertainties.在为 2026 年经济工作定调、并将扩大内需列为重点任务的中央经济工作会议召开后，专家指出中国正迎来战略转型：经济发展正从单纯的规模增长转向 “结构优化”。这一转型包括运用财政工具提振居民收入，并重点瞄准高增长的服务业，以抵御外部环境的不确定性。An official from the Office of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs confirmed that Beijing will roll out concrete plans to boost household incomes and raise basic pensions while increasing the supply of high-quality products and services and also removing unreasonable restrictions to fully unlock consumption potential.中央财经委员会办公室的一位官员证实，国家将出台具体方案，在提高居民收入、上调基本养老金的同时，增加优质产品和服务供给，消除不合理限制，以充分释放消费潜力。Experts see this policy stance as a signal for significant growth in specific areas, and express optimism about the long-term potential of China's consumer market.专家认为，这一政策立场预示着部分特定领域将迎来大幅增长，并对中国消费市场的长期潜力持乐观态度。Wang Wei, a senior researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at a recent forum hosted by China News Service: "China's consumption growth maintains strong momentum and ample potential. Emerging areas such as digital services, green technology and health-related demand are expected to become the primary engines of the consumer market."国务院发展研究中心资深研究员王伟在近期由中国新闻社主办的一场论坛上表示：“中国消费增长势头强劲、潜力充足。数字服务、绿色科技以及健康相关需求等新兴领域，有望成为消费市场的核心增长引擎。”Official data support this structural divergence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of services climbed 5.4 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, outpacing the overall retail growth of 4 percent.官方数据印证了这一结构性分化趋势。国家统计局数据显示，2025 年前 11 个月，服务业零售额同比增长 5.4%，增速高于整体零售 4% 的同比增幅。Chen Lifen, a researcher at the DRC, described the current phase as a critical evolution from a goods-dominated model to one that balances goods and services, with a long-term trajectory toward a services-led structure.国务院发展研究中心研究员陈丽芬表示，当前阶段正处于关键转型期，经济模式正从商品主导型转向商品和服务均衡型，长期来看将朝着服务主导型结构迈进。"As income levels rise, demand for services, which typically have high income elasticity, naturally increases its share of total wallet spending," Chen said, adding that with basic needs largely met, the "quality upgrade" is driving capital toward personal development, leisure and smart home ecosystems.陈丽芬指出：“随着居民收入水平提升，收入弹性较高的服务类需求在居民总消费中的占比自然会上升。” 她补充道，在基本需求得到充分满足的背景下，“品质升级” 正推动资本流向个人发展、休闲娱乐以及智能家居生态等领域。The shift is already reshaping corporate investment strategies as companies move to capture these high-quality demand pockets.这一转型已经在重塑企业的投资策略，企业纷纷布局以抢占这些高品质需求市场。Fang Xing, a vice-general manager at Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance, highlighted the surging "pet economy" — now valued at approximately 300 billion yuan ($42.81 billion). With veterinary costs often exceeding 10,000 yuan for major procedures, financial institutions are developing specialized insurance products to hedge these rising household costs.平安产险副总经理方兴特别提到了蓬勃发展的 “宠物经济”，其市场规模目前已达约 3000 亿元人民币（合 428.1 亿美元）。由于宠物重大诊疗项目的费用往往超过 1 万元，金融机构正研发专项保险产品，帮助家庭对冲这类不断上涨的支出。Similarly, in the manufacturing sector, the focus has shifted from scale to efficiency. Guo Yanhu, a director with Gree Electric Appliances, said consumer demand for green energy is driving research and development. He cited Gree's investment in AI-driven energy systems — which has boosted efficiency by over 25 percent — as a direct response to both domestic eco-targets and demand from overseas markets.无独有偶，制造业的发展重心也从规模转向了效率。格力电器董事郭彦虎表示，消费者对绿色能源的需求正驱动企业加大研发投入。他举例称，格力对人工智能驱动能源系统的投资，使能效提升超 25%，这一举措既是对国内生态目标的响应，也是对海外市场需求的直接对接。Economists emphasize that sustaining this momentum requires institutional reforms. Su Jian, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, said expanding "high-quality demand" requires a virtuous cycle where new products help cultivate new demand, while cost-reducing innovations allow new demand to scale.经济学家强调，要维持这一增长势头，必须推进制度改革。北京大学经济学院教授苏剑表示，扩大 “高品质需求” 需要形成良性循环：新产品助力培育新需求，而降本创新则为新需求的规模化发展提供支撑。While fiscal and monetary policies are essential to expand demand, Su said expanding high-quality demand depends on developing new quality productive forces through product innovation and process innovation.苏剑指出，尽管财政和货币政策对扩大需求至关重要，但扩大高品质需求的核心在于通过产品创新和工艺创新，培育新质生产力。Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, added that boosting consumption during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is a strategic choice rather than a short-term policy response.粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒补充道，“十五五” 期间提振消费是一项战略抉择，而非短期的政策应对措施。"Key to raising the household consumption rate will be improving income distribution, strengthening social security and widening market access. These are the fundamental levers to converting potential demand into actual economic activity," Luo said.罗志恒表示：“提高居民消费率的关键在于完善收入分配、强化社会保障以及拓宽市场准入。这三项举措是将潜在需求转化为实际经济活动的根本抓手。”consumption /kənˈsʌmpʃn/ 消费domestic /dəˈmestɪk/ 国内的；家庭的innovation /ˌɪnəˈveɪʃn/ 创新elasticity /ˌiːlæstɪˈsɪəti/ 弹性

China's efforts to scale up effective investment, with a particular focus on encouraging private sector participation and increasing investment in human capital, will play a key role in boosting domestic demand next year, officials and experts said.政府工作人员和专家表示，中国扩大有效投资的举措，特别是鼓励民营企业参与和增加人力资本投资，将在明年提振内需方面发挥关键作用。The annual Central Economic Work Conference, held earlier this month, emphasized the need to "halt the decline in investment and promote its recovery" amid a complex external environment.本月早些时候召开的年度中央经济工作会议强调，在复杂的外部环境下，必须“遏制投资下滑趋势，促进投资回升”。The government needs to effectively drive investment by making good use of funding sources such as central government budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, Xinhua News Agency quoted an official of the Office of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs as saying.新华社援引中央财经委员会办公室一位政府工作人员的话称，政府需要有效利用中央财政预算投资、超长期国债和地方政府专项债券等资金来源，有效引导投资。"The government will support private firms' participation in major projects in sectors such as railways and nuclear power, and guide private investment toward new fields such as high-tech industries and the service sector," the official said.该工作人员表示：“政府将支持民营企业参与铁路、核电等领域的大型项目，引导民营资本投向高新技术产业、服务业等新兴领域。”The official added that major projects set for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period could be front-loaded where conditions permit.该工作人员补充说道，在条件允许的情况下，原定于第十五个五年计划（2026-2030年）期间实施的重大项目可提前启动。China's fixed-asset investment fell 2.6 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.国家统计局数据显示，今年前11个月，中国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%。China has rolled out a series of targeted policies over the past year, including an 800 billion yuan ($113.8 billion) list of key projects to implement major national strategies and strengthen security capacity in key areas, and 500 billion yuan in new policy-based financial tools to supplement project capital.过去一年，中国推出了一系列定向政策，包括8000亿元（1138亿美元）重点项目清单，以落实重大国家战略、强化重点领域安全保障能力，以及5000亿元新增政策性金融工具，用于补充项目资本金。The economic agenda-setting meeting also called for greater investment in physical assets and human capital.经济议程设定会议还呼吁加大对实物资产和人力资本的投资力度。From the country's sprawling highway networks and bullet trains to its forest of urban high-rises, investment in physical assets played a crucial role in its economic growth over the past decades, said Yu Chunhai, executive dean of Renmin University of China's School of Economics.中国人民大学经济学院执行院长于春海指出，从遍布全国的高速公路网络和高铁系统，到城市摩天大楼林立的景象，过去数十年来，实物资产投资在推动中国经济增长方面发挥了关键作用。However, Yu noted that the country'sincremental capital output ratio, which indicates the amount of capital required for every 1 yuan increase in GDP, increased from 2.84 in 2008 to 9.44 in 2023.然而，于春海指出，中国的边际资本产出比（即每增加1元GDP所需投入的资本量）从2008年的2.84上升至2023年的9.44。Meanwhile, facing diminishing returns from the old growth model and a global shift toward talent-centric competition, China is placing a strategic bet on investing in people, analysts said.与此同时，面对传统增长模式回报递减以及全球向人才竞争格局转变的趋势，中国正将战略重心转向人才投资，分析师指出。Investment in human capital refers to inputs that develop people's capabilities and unlock their potential at all stages of life, including childcare, elderly care, health, education and skills training.人力资本投资指在人生各个阶段提升个人能力、释放潜能的投入，包括儿童保育、老年护理、健康保障、教育培养及技能培训。An aging population and rising labor costs are eroding the traditional demographic advantage. By prioritizing investment in human capital, China seeks to build long-term economic competitiveness for innovation-driven, demand-led growth, said Chen Wenling, former chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.中国国际经济交流中心前首席经济学家陈文玲指出，老龄化人口和不断上升的劳动力成本正在侵蚀传统的人口红利优势。通过优先投资人力资本，中国致力于构建长期经济竞争力，推动创新驱动、需求引领的增长模式。"A healthier, better-educated and more secure workforce is the most critical infrastructure for the next stage of China's development," Chen said. "Sustained investment in people's capabilities, health and career development doesn't just improve well-being—it directly fuels economic upgrading."陈文玲表示：“更健康、受教育程度更高、更有保障的劳动力队伍，是中国下一阶段发展最关键的基础设施。持续投资于人民的能力、健康和职业发展，不仅能提升福祉，更能直接推动经济升级。”Meanwhile, analysts believe that investing in people could also help unlock the spending power of China's massive population, creating a virtuous cycle in which social investment fuels consumption resilience.与此同时，分析人士认为，投资于人力资本也有助于释放中国庞大人口的消费潜力，从而形成良性循环，社会投资推动消费韧性增强。The enhanced investments in pensions, childcare and healthcare are designed to alleviate theprecautionary savings burdens that constrain household spending, said Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and head of the research institute at Yuekai Securities.粤开证券首席经济学家兼研究院院长罗志恒表示，加大养老、育儿和医疗领域的投资力度，旨在缓解制约家庭支出的预防性储蓄负担。"This approach transforms social spending into a powerful economic driver. A more secure population is likely to spend more freely," Luo said. "The direction aligns with China's broader economic objectives of rebalancing growth toward high-quality domestic demand."罗志恒表示：“这种做法将社会支出转化为强有力的经济驱动力。生活更有保障的人群往往更愿意消费。该方向与中国更广泛的经济目标相契合，即推动经济增长向高质量的内需转型。”incrementaladj./ˌɪŋ.krəˈmen.t̬əl/递增的precautionaryadj./prɪˈkɑː.ʃən.er.i/预防性的

As 2025 draws to a close, the National Bureau of Statistics of China has released economic data for the month of November, with indices pointing to a sustained "steady development momentum with progress". But a recent Wall Street Journal analysis, based largely on the same official data, argues that China's growth momentum has weakened across the board, that consumer demand is faltering, and exports are now doing most of the heavy lifting for the world's second-largest economy. Which story is closer to reality? Is China's economy stabilizing, or as some Western media outlets claim, quietly losing steam?

China has been implementing targeted pro-consumption measures to spur immediate spending while advancing structural reforms to unlock sustainable consumption growth, as the country moves toward a more balanced growth model anchored by its vast domestic market, economists said.经济学家指出，中国正实施有针对性的促进消费措施以刺激即时支出，同时推进结构性改革以释放可持续消费增长潜力。随着中国朝着以广阔国内市场为支撑的更均衡增长模式迈进，这些举措将发挥关键作用。They said that a robust and expanding consumer base not only powers China's high-quality development, but also provides a stabilizing force for the global economy amid fluctuating external demand and geopolitical complexities.他们指出，庞大且不断扩大的消费群体不仅推动着中国的高质量发展，更在全球外部需求波动和地缘政治复杂化的背景下，为世界经济提供了稳定力量。At the annual Central Economic Work Conference held last week, Chinese policymakers placed "boosting domestic demand" first among eight key priorities on the economic agenda for next year.在上周召开的年度中央经济工作会议上，中国决策者将“扩大内需”列为明年经济议程八大重点任务之首。President Xi Jinping pointed out in an article published on Monday in Qiushi Journal, the flagship magazine of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, that expanding domestic demand is crucial not only for economic stability but also for economic security. It is not a temporary measure, but a strategic move, he said.习近平主席在周一发表于中共中央机关刊物《求是》杂志的文章中指出，扩大内需不仅关乎经济稳定，更关乎经济安全。他强调，这并非权宜之计，而是战略举措。Xi, who is also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, called for accelerating efforts to address weaknesses in domestic demand, especially consumption, to make domestic demand the main driving force and stabilizing anchor for economic growth.习近平同时担任中共中央总书记，他呼吁加快解决国内需求薄弱环节，特别是消费领域的问题，使国内需求成为经济增长的主要驱动力和稳定锚。Robert Koopman, former chief economist of the World Trade Organization, said that over the next five to 10 years, "an important evolution in China's role is going to be to shift toward being a big center of demand".世界贸易组织前首席经济学家罗伯特·库普曼表示，未来五到十年间，“中国角色将发生重要演变，逐步转向成为重要的需求中心”。Analysts said that targeted measures to stimulate consumption remain necessary in the near term, as the latest data points to slowing growth of retail sales. In November, total retail sales of consumer goods, a gauge of consumption, registered a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percent, down 1.6 percentage points compared with October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.分析师指出，鉴于最新数据显示零售额增速放缓，短期内仍需采取有针对性的措施刺激消费。国家统计局数据显示，作为消费风向标的11月社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，较10月增速回落1.6个百分点。On Sunday, the Ministry of Commerce, along with the People's Bank of China, which is China's central bank, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration, jointly released a document pledging stronger financial support for consumer spending.周日，商务部联合中国人民银行（中国央行）和国家金融监督管理总局共同发布文件，承诺将加大对消费支出的金融支持力度。In the document, financial institutions were encouraged to refine their services for consumption on big-ticket goods, while for the services sector, the document emphasized innovative financial products targeting industries such as elderly care, catering, tourism and education.该文件鼓励金融机构完善针对大宗商品消费的服务，同时强调服务行业应推出创新金融产品，重点面向养老、餐饮、旅游和教育等领域。Dong Ximiao, chief researcher at Merchants Union Consumer Finance Co, said that front-loading of such support weeks before the new year is designed to secure early economic momentum and set a positive trajectory for 2026.招商银行消费金融公司首席研究员董希淼表示，在新年到来前数周提前推出此类支持措施，旨在确保经济早日获得动能，为2026年奠定积极发展轨迹。In particular, the move, launched ahead of the Spring Festival shopping season in mid-February, signaled a strategic effort to harness the year's peak consumption period, Dong added.董希淼补充道，这项举措特别选在二月中旬春节购物季前启动，标志着企业正采取战略性举措，力求把握年度消费高峰期。Analysts view the latest move as part of a calibrated "one-two punch" for consumption, pairing targeted financial support with extended trade-in programs through 2026.分析师认为，此番举措是刺激消费的精心策划的“组合拳”，将定向金融支持与延长至2026年的以旧换新计划相结合。Han Wenxiu, executive deputy director of the Office of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs, told a news conference on Saturday that China should "adapt to the evolving consumption structure by expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services, and optimize the implementation of the trade-in policies".中央财经委员会办公室副主任韩文秀周六在记者会上表示，中国应“通过扩大优质商品和服务供给适应消费结构变化，优化以旧换新政策实施”。According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from January to November this year, trade-in programs pushed sales of related goods beyond 2.5 trillion yuan ($355 billion), benefiting more than 360 million people.据商务部数据显示，今年1至11月，以旧换新活动带动相关商品销售额突破2.5万亿元（约合3550亿美元），惠及超过3.6亿人。Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said that next year's trade-ins could incorporate a wider range of products, particularly those with artificial intelligence features. Wang suggested scaling up the annual funding pool to 500 billion yuan — an increase from this year's 300 billion yuan.金信评级首席宏观分析师王青表示，明年的以旧换新政策可能涵盖更广泛的产品，特别是具备人工智能功能的产品。王青建议将年度资金池规模扩大至5000亿元人民币——较今年的3000亿元有所增加。In late November, China unveiled a plan to improve the alignment of the supply and demand of consumer goods, highlighting the application of AI across all sectors and processes of the consumer goods industry.11月下旬，中国公布了一项优化消费品供需匹配的计划，强调人工智能技术将全面应用于消费品行业的各个领域和生产环节。"More important, the scope of support could broaden beyond durable goods to encompass a wide range of service sectors such as childhood education," Wang added.王青补充道：“更重要的是，支持范围可能从耐用品扩展到涵盖儿童教育等广泛的服务领域。”Structural reforms结构化改革Besides short-term measures, analysts emphasized that sustaining consumer strength will increasingly depend on deeper structural reforms, including raising household income, strengthening the social safety net and improving livelihoods.除短期措施外，分析师强调，维持消费韧性将日益依赖更深层次的结构性改革，包括提高居民收入、强化社会安全网以及改善民生。To this end, the tone-setting meeting last week explicitly advocated "increased incomes for urban and rural residents".为此，上周的定调会议明确倡导“提高城乡居民收入”。Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said that "the policy focus is gradually evolving from simple stimulus to bolstering both the capacity and willingness of households to spend".中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示：“政策重点正逐步从单纯的刺激转向增强家庭消费能力和意愿。”Wen pointed to potential measures such as adjusting personal income tax thresholds, maintaining steady growth in social welfare spending, and advancing policies that promote high-quality employment as key to enabling durable consumption growth.温彬指出了若干潜在措施，包括调整个人所得税起征点、保持社会福利支出稳定增长、推进促进高质量就业的政策，这些措施是实现消费持续增长的关键。China has also been proactively encouraging inbound consumption to enhance the resilience of its domestic market through the "Shopping in China" campaign, fueled by China's unilateral visa-free policies for various countries and a new initiative allowing eligible travelers to receive instant tax refunds.中国还通过“中国购物”活动积极鼓励入境消费，以增强国内市场的韧性。该活动得益于中国对多个国家实施的单方面免签政策，以及一项允许符合条件的旅客即时退税的新举措。

Experts have called for stronger policy and financial support for young people and enhanced efforts to eliminate workplace discrimination to foster a marriage-and birth-friendly society.专家呼吁加强针对年轻人的政策和财政支持，并加大消除职场歧视的力度，以营造一个支持婚姻和生育的社会环境。According to the China Statistical Yearbook, which was published recently by the National Bureau of Statistics, about 6.1 million couples registered their marriage in 2024. Among them, 6.04 million were mainland residents, while 61,900 had spouses who were foreigners, overseas Chinese, or residents of the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan.根据国家统计局近日发布的《中国统计年鉴》，2024年全国登记结婚约610万对。其中，大陆居民登记结婚604万对，与外国公民、海外华侨及港澳台地区居民结婚登记6.19万对。Data shows that the number of marriage registrations has fluctuated in recent years, with a marginal rebound in 2023 after continuous decline since 2013. In the first three quarters of 2025, there has been a modest increase in the number, with about 5.15 million couples registering their marriage, compared with 4.75 million during the same period last year.数据显示，近年来婚姻登记数量呈现波动态势，自2013年持续下降后，2023年出现小幅回升。2025年前三季度登记数量有所增长，约515万对新人完成婚姻登记，较去年同期475万对有所增加。Amid this trend, experts and members of the public have urged more policy and financial support from the government to ease pressures on young people of marriageable age and encourage them to marry and have children.在此趋势下，专家和公众呼吁政府提供更多政策和财政支持，以缓解适婚年龄青年的压力，鼓励他们结婚生子。"From a demographic perspective, China's current population of marriageable age—mainly those born after 1990 and 2000—is shrinking. Young people's views on marriage differ from those of previous generations. They tend to delay marriage or choose not to marry," said Jiang Quanbao, a professor at the Capital University of Economics and Business' School of Labor Economics in Beijing.从人口结构角度看，中国当前适婚年龄段人口——主要是1990后和2000后群体——正在缩减。首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院教授姜全保指出：“年轻一代的婚姻观与前辈存在差异，他们普遍推迟结婚或选择不结婚。”Social pressures and changing norms also influence marriage decisions, Jiang noted. "Young people face financial pressures from housing expenses, 'bride price', and wedding and childbearing costs. Also, women are becoming more educated and pursuing career success," he said, adding that society has become more inclusive and open-minded about diverse attitudes toward marriage.姜全保指出，社会压力和不断变化的规范也影响着婚姻决策，“年轻人面临住房开支、‘彩礼'以及婚嫁生育等经济压力。同时，女性受教育程度不断提高，更追求事业成功。”他还表示，社会对婚姻的多样化态度也变得更加包容和开放。Zhang Xianling, an associate professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics' School of Sociology and Psychology in Beijing, told Workers' Daily that marriage is traditionally seen as essential for personal growth and carrying forward the family bloodline, but with rapid economic and social transformations, more young people now choose to delay marriage or not marry at all.中央财经大学社会与心理学院副教授张现苓向《工人日报》表示，婚姻传统上被视为个人成长和延续家族血脉的重要途径，但随着经济社会快速转型，如今越来越多的年轻人选择推迟结婚或不结婚。To boost marriage and childbirth rates, relevant authorities have rolled out new supportive measures, includingstreamlining marriage registration procedures.为提高结婚率和生育率，相关主管部门推出了一系列支持性新措施，包括简化结婚登记手续。In May, people of marriageable age were allowed to register for marriage at their place of work or residence instead of their hometowns under the hukou system, also known as household registration.五月起，适婚年龄人群可在工作地或居住地登记结婚，无需再按户籍制度要求返回户籍所在地办理。In July, a financial support policy was introduced to give families 3,600 yuan ($511) per year for each child under the age of 3 years.七月，一项财政支持政策出台，规定每年为每个未满三周岁的儿童提供3600元（约合511美元）的补助。The recently adopted recommendations for formulating China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) also call for promoting positive attitudes toward marriage and childbirth by optimizing supportive policies and incentives.近期通过的关于制定中国第十五个五年规划（2026-2030年）的建议，同时要求通过完善支持性政策和激励措施，促进社会对婚姻和生育的积极态度。Wang Xuanyi, 29, a financial analyst in Beijing, said that for ordinary people, the greatest pressures of marriage include home loans and child-rearing expenses. "For me, as a woman, I may face discrimination in the workplace, as some employers see pregnant employees as a burden."29岁的北京金融分析师王宣怡（音译）表示，对普通人而言，婚姻的最大压力包括房贷和育儿开支，“作为女性，我可能面临职场歧视，因为有些雇主认为怀孕员工是负担。”Wang emphasized that it is important for the government to promote healthier perspectives on marriage and childbirth by alleviating young people's concerns about career development, high housing prices, and a work culture that is not friendly toward childcare.王宣怡（音译）强调，政府应通过缓解年轻人对职业发展、高房价以及不利于育儿的工作文化的担忧，来倡导更健康的婚姻和生育观念。"It will be a long journey, but I think things will get better if we receive stronger policy and financial support from the authorities," she added.她补充道：“这将是一段漫长的旅程，但我认为，如果我们能获得政府更强有力的政策和财政支持，情况将会好转。”Jiang, from Capital University of Economics and Business, said that encouraging young people to marry and have children requires a systematic effort involving financial support, improved public services and guidance on marriage values.来自首都经济贸易大学的姜全保教授指出，鼓励年轻人结婚生子需要系统性举措，包括提供经济支持、完善公共服务以及引导婚姻价值观。"The government can offer special housing subsidies, or low-interest or interest-free housing loans, to the newlyweds. In addition to childcare subsidies, it could explore benefits such as marriage and settlement allowances and tax reductions for couples," he said.政府可为新婚夫妇提供专项住房补贴，或发放低息乃至免息住房贷款。除育儿补贴外，还可探索婚姻定居津贴、夫妻税收减免等福利措施。Jiang said that it is crucial "to fully implement and optimize thematernity leave system and encourage men to share childcare responsibilities to reduce the 'motherhood penalty'—prejudices women may face in the job market due to childbirth".姜全保表示，关键在于“全面落实并完善产假制度，鼓励男性分担育儿责任，以减轻‘母亲惩罚'——即女性因生育而在就业市场可能面临的偏见”。The expert also called for improvements in childcare services, and suggested that schools and residential communities organize lectures for young people on maintaining relationships and managing family tensions.姜全保还呼吁改善托儿服务，并建议学校和社区为年轻人组织讲座，内容涉及维系亲密关系和处理家庭矛盾。"It's important to portray a healthy, fair and happy marriage and family life," he said, adding that trade unions and communities could organize diverse and healthy dating activities or social events for young people.他说：“展现健康、公平、幸福的婚姻和家庭生活很重要。”他还表示，工会和社区可以为年轻人组织多样化、健康的约会活动或社交活动。streamlinev./ˈstriːm.laɪn/简化maternity leaven./məˈtɝː.nə.t̬i/产假bride price彩礼

There's more evidence that China's economy is stalling. Beijing released a batch of government data today that was not encouraging. Chinese consumers have slammed their wallets shut, and data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China paints a picture of stagnating investment, output, and consumption. And later, we'll preview long-delayed economic data slated to come out this week and learn why retailers are hiring fewer workers for the holiday shopping season.

There's more evidence that China's economy is stalling. Beijing released a batch of government data today that was not encouraging. Chinese consumers have slammed their wallets shut, and data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China paints a picture of stagnating investment, output, and consumption. And later, we'll preview long-delayed economic data slated to come out this week and learn why retailers are hiring fewer workers for the holiday shopping season.

In this episode, Yiqun Chen and Marcus Dillender join us to discuss their revealing study on how nursing homes respond to government inspections. They explain how facilities often make short-term changes—like boosting staff and discharging patients—just to look better during inspections, only to revert immediately afterward. Despite this gaming, inspection ratings still offer meaningful insights into resident outcomes. The conversation covers why some citations lead to real improvements while others don't; how inspection ratings relate to mortality risk; and what policymakers can do to make oversight more effective and less predictable. This episode offers a candid look at the strengths and blind spots of government monitoring, and what it means for the future of elder care. Guests: Yiqun Chen & Marcus Dillender, economists and authors of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) paper “Government Monitoring of Health Care Quality: Evidence from the Nursing Home Sector”

Policy analyst Sam Cardwell of the Mountain States Policy Center argues that California's new $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers is a warning sign for the rest of the country. Citing a National Bureau of Economic Research study, he says the policy coincided with an estimated 18,000 fast-food jobs lost between September 2023 and September 2024 and a steeper employment decline than in other states. Cardwell applies those findings to Washington, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, estimating thousands of potential job losses if each adopted a $20 minimum wage, and points to higher restaurant prices in Seattle as evidence of existing wage pressures. He concludes that large minimum wage hikes risk leaving some workers with “a minimum wage of zero.” https://www.clarkcountytoday.com/opinion/opinion-fast-food-jobs-at-risk-with-high-minimum-wages/#UnitedStates #MinimumWage #FastFoodJobs #CaliforniaPolicy #WashingtonState #MountainStatesPolicyCenter #Opinion

A serving Garda has appeared in court charged with corruption offences following an investigation by the National Bureau of Criminal Investigation into serious organised crime activity. For more on this our Crime Correspondent Paul Reynolds.

On this episode, OpenAI's chief economist Ronnie Chatterji describes how artificial intelligence is reshaping both the economy and scientific innovation. Ronnie discusses the dual economic impacts of AI — the near-term boost from infrastructure investments like chips and data centers, and the longer-term productivity gains as AI tools integrate into enterprises and consumer life. Beyond consumer convenience, he notes, the key question for economists and corporate leaders alike is when — and how — AI will unlock sustained economic value inside organizations. Tune in for Ronnie's perspective on how AI can help researchers test ideas faster, combine insights across disciplines, and make better choices about which problems to pursue. Read the episode transcript here. Guest bio: Aaron (Ronnie) Chatterji is OpenAI's first chief economist. He is also the Mark Burgess & Lisa Benson-Burgess Distinguished Professor at Duke University. He served in the Biden administration to implement the CHIPS and Sciences Act and was acting deputy director of the National Economic Council. Before that, he was chief economist at the Department of Commerce and a senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He also previously taught at Harvard Business School, worked at Goldman Sachs, and was a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Chatterji is on leave as a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He holds a Ph.D. from University of California, Berkeley and a B.A. in economics from Cornell University. Me, Myself, and AI is a podcast produced by MIT Sloan Management Review and hosted by Sam Ransbotham. It is engineered by David Lishansky and produced by Allison Ryder. We encourage you to rate and review our show. Your comments may be used in Me, Myself, and AI materials. ME, MYSELF, AND AI® is a federally registered trademark of Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved.

Robert Huckman is a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Stephen Morrissey, the interviewer, is the Executive Managing Editor of the Journal. D.M. Cutler and R.S. Huckman. Has Corporatization Met Its Match? The Challenge of Making Money by Keeping People Healthy. N Engl J Med 2025;393:2177-2180.

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission has just released its 2025 annual report to Congress. The annual report's analysis and recommendations are a crucial source of information for Congress, the executive branch, and observers of US-China relations. This year's report includes 28 key recommendations for Congress.  On this episode of China Global, we have two Commissioners joining us to discuss the report, Commissioner Aaron Friedberg and Commissioner Mike Kuiken. Commissioner Friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and co-director of its Center for International Security Studies. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, counselor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, and previously served as Vice President Dick Cheney's Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs.Commissioner Kuiken is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and advisor to the Special Competitive Studies Project. He has over 20 years of experience shaping US national security policy, including 12 years on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Timestamps:[00:00] Intro[1:47] China's Role in the Axis of Autocracy[03:22] Best Response from US and Allies?[05:23] The Interlocking Innovation Flywheels Effect[07:47] Made in China 2025 Plan: 10 Years Later[10:25] Why Does Chinese Dominance Matter?  [12:39] Policy Prescriptions for the US[16:24] Lessons Learned from China Shock 1.0 and Preparing for 2.0[21:09] Bipartisan Political Will on China Policy[24:06] Taiwan as a Vital Interest to the US[28:06] Assuaging Taiwanese Doubts in Congress[30:17] Taiwan's Defense Spending Debate  

Charles Burton Charles Burton discusses his book, The Beaver and the Dragon, illustrating China's fundamental untrustworthiness and statistical manipulation, which has intensified under centralized leadership, noting Canada's past cooperation with China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) failed as officials often falsely reported data, and despite historical deception and security risks, there is a push in Canada to increase trade with China to offset trade issues with the United States, with Burton cautioning that trusting the Chinese Communist Party has always "gone badly wrong."

SHOW  11-18-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1894 "THE ANGEL OF THE REVOLUTION" THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT GAZA. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Liz Peek Liz Peek discusses the "AI bubble," noting the Magnificent Seven stocks are priced to perfection amidst concerns that massive investments may not yield adequate returns, observes that although the market is "risk off" the US economy seems "okay" according to data points, and expresses alarm about New York Mayor-Elect Mamdani, a socialist without management expertise who is surrounding himself with ideologues, including Hassan Sheheryar, his transition director, who is "clearly anti-Semitic" and anti-Israel, raising significant concerns for the city.E 915-930 CONTINUED 930-945 Judy Dempsey Judy Dempsey addresses the rising costs and future decline of the global cocoa crop, linking it to transcontinental climate change caused by Amazon deforestation, criticizes the EU and NATO for reacting too slowly and lacking strategic vision concerning the Ukraine war and defense, notes European military infrastructure is inadequate for rapid deployment forcing reliance on ships instead of trains, and observes that while the Russian threat is understood by most member states, political fumbling in Germany is allowing the anti-NATO, pro-Russia AfD party to gain significant ground. 945-1000 Gregory Copley Gregory Copley discusses the US military presence off Venezuela, noting President Trump seeks a negotiated outcome with Maduro to avoid long-term intervention, covers Mohammed bin Salman's influence in the Abraham Accords and the challenge posed by Turkey-backed Hamas, analyzes the symbolic rail sabotage in Poland questioning Russian involvement, and addresses the declining viability of NATO's Article 5 and the potential for King Charles III to intervene in UK political chaos. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Charles Burton Charles Burton discusses his book, The Beaver and the Dragon, illustrating China's fundamental untrustworthiness and statistical manipulation, which has intensified under centralized leadership, noting Canada's past cooperation with China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) failed as officials often falsely reported data, and despite historical deception and security risks, there is a push in Canada to increase trade with China to offset trade issues with the United States, with Burton cautioning that trusting the Chinese Communist Party has always "gone badly wrong." 1015-1030 CONTINUED. 1030-1045 Jonathan Schanzer Jonathan Schanzer discusses Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), calling him a deeply flawed but essential leader driving Saudi modernization and normalization with Israel, with a "pathway to a Palestinian state" as the current diplomatic objective, emphasizing that resolving the Gaza situation and achieving broader peace hinges on eliminating Hamas, while the region faces long-term challenges from Iran and Turkey, the latter complicating Israel's security operations in chaotic Syria, with the UN endorsement of the Trump 20-point plan for Gaza reconstruction considered a landmark win. 1045-1100 CONTINUED CONTINUED KING CHARLES THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Gregory Copley Gregory Copley discusses the US military presence off Venezuela, noting President Trump seeks a negotiated outcome with Maduro to avoid long-term intervention, covers Mohammed bin Salman's influence in the Abraham Accords and the challenge posed by Turkey-backed Hamas, analyzes the symbolic rail sabotage in Poland questioning Russian involvement, and addresses the declining viability of NATO's Article 5 and the potential for King Charles III to intervene in UK political chaos. 1115-1130 CONTINUED MBS 1130-1145 CONTINUED KING CHARLES 1145-1200 CONTINUED FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Mary Kissel Mary Kissel addresses three foreign policy dilemmas: regarding Venezuela, the US military buildup is seen as leverage to force dialogue with Maduro following a successful playbook used against North Korea; in Europe, she notes a dichotomy between committed Eastern European states and "weaker lazier" Western powers regarding support for Ukraine; and the China dilemma involves whether to treat Beijing as a legitimate trading partner or an enemy narco-terrorist state responsible for exporting fentanyl precursors, with Kissel suggesting current US policy is confused and benefits the CCP. 1215-1230 1230-1245 oseph Sternberg Joseph Sternberg analyzes the BBC political bias scandal, which is significant because the BBC is "omnipresent" and arranges the "mental furniture for British society," noting the BBC, funded largely by a mandatory license fee, faced allegations ranging from deceptive editing of President Trump's remarks to the Arabic service pushing Hamas propaganda potentially fueling anti-Semitism, while domestically discussing the UK Labour Party's dilemma over controversial immigration policies to control illegal channel crossings, a crisis that has strengthened Nigel Farage's Reform party. 1245-100 AM

There is perhaps nobody in the financial education space who knows her way around the National Bureau of Economic Research quite like Stefanie O'Connell Rodriguez. If Chapter 2 of Rich Girl Nation were sentient, it would probably sound a lot like Stefanie. Today on the show, I'm picking her brain about the current state of what she calls “the ambition penalty.” Subscribe to our Wednesday email: ⁠https://moneywithkatie.com/newsletter⁠ Get your copy of Rich Girl Nation, recently named one of Barnes & Noble's Best Business Books of 2025:⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://moneywithkatie.com/rich-girl-nation⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Transcripts, show notes, resources, and credits will be available within a week at: ⁠⁠⁠https://moneywithkatie.com/ambition-penalty. — Money with Katie's mission is to be the intersection where the economic, cultural, and political meet the tactical, practical, personal finance education everyone needs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Affirmative action and DEI have become lightning rods in today's culture wars, but how much do we really know about where they came from and why they exist? In this episode, Sergio breaks down the long history of systemic racism in America, from slavery and Jim Crow to redlining and modern hiring bias. You'll learn what affirmative action actually is, what DEI really means, and how both have shaped access, opportunity, and fairness for everyone not just a few. This isn't about guilt. It's about awareness. Because when you understand the history, you start to see the patterns. And once you see them, you can't unsee them.1.Intro2. America's Original Construction Project3. The Evolution of Inequality4. Who's Really Getting the Handout?5. Before Affirmative Action, There Was Just...Discrimination6. DEI for Dummies: The Part They Never Told YouSources & References:• Bertrand, M., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). Are Emily and Greg more employable than Lakisha and Jamal? A field experiment on labor market discrimination. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9873• Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. (n.d.). EEOC history: 1964–1969. U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. https://www.eeoc.gov/history/eeoc-history-1964-1969• National Park Service. (n.d.). Equal Pay Act of 1963. U.S. Department of the Interior. https://www.nps.gov/articles/equal-pay-act.htm• Pittsburgh Press Co. v. Pittsburgh Commission on Human Relations, 413 U.S. 376 (1973). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittsburgh_Press_Co._v._Pittsburgh_Commission_on_Human_Relations• University of Washington. (n.d.). Racial restrictive covenants: Enforcing neighborhood segregation in Seattle. Civil Rights & Labor History Consortium. https://depts.washington.edu/civilr/covenants_report.htm• Jones-Correa, M. (2000). Origins and diffusion of racial restrictive covenants. Political Science Quarterly, 115(4), 541–568. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2657609• Urban Institute. (2023). Addressing the legacies of historical redlining. https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2023-01/Addressing%20the%20Legacies%20of%20Historical%20Redlining.pdf• Nardone, A., Casey, J. A., Morello-Frosch, R., Mujahid, M., Balmes, J., & Thakur, N. (2020). Associations between historical residential redlining and current age-adjusted rates of emergency department visits due to asthma across eight cities in California. The Lancet Planetary Health, 4(1), e24–e31. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9901820/• Pager, D., Western, B., & Bonikowski, B. (2009). Discrimination in a low-wage labor market: A field experiment. American Sociological Review, 74(5), 777–799. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2915472/• Corrigan v. Buckley, 271 U.S. 323 (1926). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrigan_v._Buckley• ADA National Network. “Timeline of the Americans with Disabilities Act.” adata.org. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://adata.org/ada-timeline• Administration for Community Living. “Origins of the ADA.” acl.gov. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://acl.gov/ada/origins-of-the-ada• U.S. Department of Justice. “Introduction to the Americans with Disabilities Act.” ada.gov. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://www.ada.gov/topics/intro-to-ada/• Section508.gov. “IT Accessibility Laws and Policies.” section508.gov. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://www.section508.gov/manage/laws-and-policies/• BrownGold. “DEI & A: The Effect of Donald Trump's DEI Executive Order on Accessibility.” browngold.com. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://browngold.com/blog/dei-a-the-effect-of-donald-trumps-dei-executive-order-on-accessibility/• Wikipedia. “Architectural Barriers Act of 1968.” Wikipedia.org. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Architectural_Barriers_Act_of_1968• Michigan State University Libraries. “Advancing Accessibility: A Timeline.” lib.msu.edu. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://lib.msu.edu/exhibits/advancing-accessibility/timeline• Duane Morris LLP. “ADA Considerations for Neurodiversity Hiring Programs.” duanemorris.com. August 3, 2023. https://www.duanemorris.com/articles/ada_considerations_for_neurodiversity_hiring_programs_0803.html• Autism Spectrum News. “Neurodiversity Hiring Programs: A Path to Employment.” autismspectrumnews.org. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://autismspectrumnews.org/neurodiversity-hiring-programs-a-path-to-employment/Institute for Diversity Certification. “What Does It Mean to Provide Reasonable Workplace Accommodations for Your Neurodiverse Employees?” diversitycertification.org. Accessed October 2, 2025. https://www.diversitycertification.org/deia-matters-blog/what-does-it-mean-to-provide-reasonable-workplace-accommodations-for-your-neurodiverse-employeesKatznelson, I. (2005). When affirmative action was white: An untold history of racial inequality in twentieth-century America. W. W. Norton & Company. (See summary: History & Policy).• Onkst, D. H. (1998). “'First a negro… incidentally a veteran': Black World War II veterans and the G.I. Bill of Rights in the Deep South, 1944–1948.” Journal of Social History, 32(3), 517–543.• Blakemore, E. (2019; updated 2025). “How the GI Bill's promise was denied to a million Black WWII veterans.” History.com. https://www.history.com/articles/gi-bill-black-wwii-veterans-benefits.• Heller School, Brandeis University. (2023). “Not all WWII veterans benefited equally from the GI Bill” (impact report). https://heller.brandeis.edu/news/items/releases/2023/impact-report-gi-bill.html.• Perea, J. F. (2014). [Law review article on GI Bill and race]. University of Pittsburgh Law Review (available as PDF).• NBER working paper(s). (2024–2025). “Quantifying Racial Discrimination in the 1944 GI Bill” (authors and links in NBER repository). 

Our show today is being sponsored by Free Float Analytics, the only platform measuring board power, connections, and performance for FREE.DAMIONAmazon to announce largest layoffs in company history, in AI push. WHO DO YOU BLAME?Former CEO Jeff BezosAICovid (This wave of layoffs results from overhiring during the pandemic)Executive Chair and largest shareholder Jeff BezosF5 Expects Revenue Hit From Cyber Attack. F5, a $20B billion technology company with impressive gross profit margins of 81%, experienced a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to certain company systems by a sophisticated nation-state threat actor. WHO DO YOU BLAME?The Risk committee: Dreyer, Klein, Montoya, Budnik*Chair Marianne Budnik is deemed to have Cybersecurity experience because she serves as a Chief Marketing Officer in the cybersecurity industryPeter Klein was the CFO at Microsoft for less than 4 years, then was the CFO for WME for 6 months and then has only been a director since 2014.Risk committee member Michael Montoya specifically. F5 revealed that the director mysteriously resigned in the same filing it disclosed the cyberattack, despite having served for only 4 years. According to the proxy, had “extensive experience as an information security executive.” Following his resignation from the Board, Mr. Montoya continued his service with the Company and has been appointed as F5's Chief Technology Operations Officer.The entire board, for doing dumb modern day board things: announced that CEO François Locoh-Donou, would assume the additional role of Chair of the Board following the Company's next Annual Meeting of Shareholders 12 days after they announced the cyberattack.Investors. 98% YES average this year: 7 over 99.2%, including Risk Committee Chair Marriane Budnik with 99.6%. Nobody feels like they have to work hard to impress anyoneF5! It's a god damn cybersecurity company!How climate change is fueling Hurricane Melissa's ferocity. WHO DO YOU BLAME?Exxon CEO Darren Woods because he sued his own shareholders last year: Arjuna Capital, LLC and Follow ThisExxon CEO Darren Woods because just yesterday: Exxon sues California over new laws requiring corporate climate disclosuresExxon CEO Darren Woods because gas and oilClimate ChangeOpenAI says U.S. needs more power to stay ahead of China in AI: ‘Electrons are the new oil' WHO DO YOU BLAME?The fear-and-spending geniuses behind the original Cold War: Truman, Stalin, ChurchillPeople who historically ignored Eisenhower and his statements on the U.S. military-industrial complex when he explicitly warned that defense contractors and the military could exert undue influence on government policy. Sound familiar?Anyone who empowered the board to not be empowered when they tried to fire Sam Altman for such reasons as:Conflicts over OpenAI's rapid growth and direction, especially the tension between aggressive AI deployment vs. safety oversight.Power dynamics between Altman, key researchers, and board members — some may have felt he had too much unilateral control.The college that let Sam Altman drop outSammy Altman Citi's Jane Fraser consolidates power with board chair vote — and a $25 million-plus bonus to boot. WHO DO YOU BLAME?The entire Compensation, Performance Management and Culture CommitteeThese two long-tenured Compensation, Performance Management and Culture Committee membersDiana L. Taylor* 10 other directorships: Brookfield Corporation, Accion (Chair), Columbia Business School (Board of Overseers),Friends of Hudson River Park (Chair), Mailman School of Public Health (Board of Overseers), The Economic Club of New York (Member), Council on Foreign Relations (Member), Hot Bread Kitchen (Board Chair), Cold Spring Harbor Lab (Member), and New York City Ballet (Board Chair)Peter B. Henry*8 other directorships: Nike, Inc., Analog Devices, Inc., National Bureau of Economic Research (Board), The Economic Club of New York (Board), Protiviti (Advisory Board), Biospring Partners (Advisory Board), Makena Capital (Advisory Board), and Two Bridges Football Club (Board)The lowest common denominator effect of bank compensation committees:Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf: ~$30M special equity grant tied to becoming Chair as well as CEO (3 months after meeting)Goldman Sachs: CEO David Solomon & COO John Waldron ~$80M each (retention RSUs vesting in ~5 yrs)KeyCorp: CEO Chris Gorman & four other senior execs: ~$8M for Gorman; ~$17M combined for the five NEOsThe passive ownership (re: management-friendly) of BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard (combined 22%): without their votes at Goldman then Say on Pay was nearly tied, which might have dissuaded the year of one-off bonuses for banking CEOs??The world is about $4.5 trillion short of securing a sustainable food supply for the future, global food and ag business CEO [Sunny Verghese, CEO of food and ag company Olam Group] says. WHO DO YOU BLAME?The world's top 28 richest people (those worth ~$160 B each) together would equal $4.5 trillionThe world's greatest sycophant Tesla chair RobynDenholm: “On the pay package specifically: “It's not about the money for him. If there had been a way of delivering voting rights that didn't necessarily deliver dollars, that would have been an interesting proposition.”Any two of these basically redundant techbro companies' market caps would sufficeNvidia ~$4.2 trillion Microsoft ~$3.8 trillion Apple ~$3.1 trillion Amazon ~$2.4 trillion Alphabet ~$2.2 trillion Meta Platforms ~$1.8 trillion Broadcom ~$1.3 trillion Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ~$1.2 trillionBill Ackman. Because he's a douche.MATTTarget is eliminating 1,800 roles as new CEO Michael Fiddelke gets set to take over the struggling retailer - WHO DO YOU BLAME?Current CEO Brian Cornell, who's “stepping down” to the role of Executive Chair - which is basically still CEO, just on the board and doesn't have to talk to employees anymore, so he can eliminate 1800 jobs and then fade away into a multimillion dollar unaccountable board roleFuture CEO Michael Fiddelke, who starts February 1, 2026, but is current COO and was forced to send the memo to employees telling them 8% of the workforce will be cutMonica Lozano, chair of the compensation and human capital management committee of the board, who's also on the BofA and Apple boards and is the most connected board member at a highly connected board - does the chair of the human capital committee have to weigh in on firing?OpenAI - the memo makes zero mention of the fact that part of Target's problem is that it shit on gays and blacks because of a feckless internet toad named Robby Starbuck, but feels very written by AI which would account for phrases like:“Adjusting our structure is one part of the work ahead of us. It will also require new behaviors and sharper priorities that strengthen our retail leadership in style and design and enable faster execution so we can: Lead with merchandising authority; Elevate the guest experience with every interaction; and Accelerate technology to enable our team and delight our guests.”Does anyone know what that word salad actually means? Doesn't it just mean “you're fired because we basically sucked at our jobs”?Hormel recalls 4.9M pounds of chicken possibly 'contaminated with pieces of metal' - WHO DO YOU BLAME?The audit committee, the closest committee responsible for enterprise risk (ie, metal in chicken) - Stephen M. Lacy, William A. Newlands (also lead director), Debbra L. Schoneman, Sally J. Smith (chair), Steven A. White, Michael P. ZechmeisterThe governance committee - James Snee, the now retired CEO who retired somehow in January but the company still hasn't found a permanent replacement 9 months later - so they're being run by Jeff Ettinger, interim CEO? Chair Gary C. Bhojwani, Elsa A. Murano, Ph.D., William A. Newlands (also lead director), Debbra L. Schoneman, Steven A. WhiteThe one black guy on the board - Steve White - who works at Comcast, is somehow qualified to be on Hormel board, and is on BOTH the audit committee AND governance committeeThe conveyor belt that spit pieces of metal as large as 17mm long into “fire braised chicken” sent to hotels and restaurantsCervoMed appoints McKinsey veteran David Quigley to board of directors - WHO DO YOU BLAME? Board is 2 VCs, a longtime biotech CFO, and five MD/PhDs. And among those 8, there are just two woman - the co-founder/wife of the CEO and a VC. And when they did their search, they could only find a longtime professional opinion haver - a consultant from the big three?Nominating committee for lack of imaginationEx or current McKinsey, Bain, and BCG employed directors - the opinion industrial complex - make up a whopping 4% of ALL US DIRECTORSAmong boards with MULTIPLE ex opinion directors: Kohl's is 25% consultantStarbucks is 27% consultantDisney is 30% consultantsWilliams-Sonoma is 38% consultantCBRE is 40% consultant!Nominating committee chair Jane Hollingsworth, for not looking around the room and saying, “hey dudes, can we add, like, maybe, ONE other lady?”Co founders Sylvie Gregoire and John Alam (also CEO) who own 17.3% of voting power - add in Josh Boger, board chair and 12.3% voter, and you basically have the CEO daddy and his buddy Josh with 29.6% of voting controlSylvie and John's bios, which neglect to mention they're married to one anotherWe are all terrified of the future - which headline is worse for your terror? WHO DO YOU BLAME?The world is about $4.5 trillion short of securing a sustainable food supply for the future, global food and ag business CEO saysBill Gates Says Climate Change ‘Will Not Lead to Humanity's Demise' - ostensibly because billionaires in bunkers will, in fact, survive on cans of metal-filled Hormel chili.Sorry, Yoda. Mentors are going out of styleMan Alarmed to Discover His Smart Vacuum Was Broadcasting a Secret Map of His HouseJennifer Garner's baby food company is going public on the NYSE — should investors be putting their eggs in this basket?Woman Repeatedly Warned by Canadian Exchange Not to Transfer Crypto, Gets Scammed AnywayOpenAI completes restructure, solidifying Microsoft as a major shareholder - MSFT owns 27%, the non profit which controlled the company “for the benefit of humanity” now will only control it for 26% of humanity?Tesla risks losing CEO Musk if $1 trillion pay package isn't approved, board chair says - IF MUSK LEAVES, WHO DO YOU BLAME?Robyn Denholm, board chair, whose job it is to manage Musk, but does it like an overwhelmed permissive mother who parents with chocolate and Teletubbies when the kid has a tantrumKimbal Musk - I was told by a bunch of directors and institutional investors at a conference, no joke, that Kimbal was still on the board (ie, not voted out) to control his brother's ketamine intake and crazy episodes. So if he throws a tantrum and leaves, isn't it bro's fault? This is a binary trade - Musk gets extra pay/control, stock goes up and isn't de-meme'd. Musk doesn't, he leaves and the stock is de-meme'd and drops arguably by 66% or more to be more like a car company with some tech. So do we blame investors, no matter what they do? They meme'd the stock in the first place, he couldn't get a trillion extra dollars if they hadn't pumped up the stock - and now they could vote with humanity (no pay) or meme capitalism (pay)!Techbro middle school conservatism - is this Ben Shapiro and Joe Rogan's fault? A Yale economist paper suggests that Musk's politics cost between 1 and 1.26 million Tesla car sales… Would we even be worried if Musk stayed out of politics? Wouldn't the market have just paid him whatever?Pop quiz: which directors stay on the board if Musk leaves in a tantrum?Jeffrey StraubelKimbal MuskRobyn DenholmJames MurdochKathleen Wilson-ThompsonIra EhrenpreisJack HartungJoe Gebbia

Story of the Week (DR):Citi's Jane Fraser consolidates power with board chair vote — and a $25 million-plus bonus to boota one-time equity award (the Award), consisting of Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) with a grant date value of $25 million and 1.055 million Citigroup stock optionsthe Compensation, Performance Management and Culture CommitteeDuncan P. Hennes (Chair)*Peter B. Henry*Other directorships: Nike, Inc., Analog Devices, Inc., National Bureau of Economic Research (Board), The Economic Club of New York (Board), Protiviti (Advisory Board), Biospring Partners (Advisory Board), Makena Capital (Advisory Board), and Two Bridges Football Club (Board)Renée J. JamesOther directorships: Oracle Corporation, Sabre Corporation, Vodafone Group Plc, President's National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (Member and Prior Chair), and University of Oregon (Trustee)Gary M. Reiner*Diana L. Taylor*Other directorships: Brookfield Corporation, Accion (Chair), Columbia Business School (Board of Overseers),Friends of Hudson River Park (Chair), Mailman School of Public Health (Board of Overseers), The Economic Club of New York (Member), Council on Foreign Relations (Member), Hot Bread Kitchen (Board Chair), Cold Spring Harbor Lab (Member), and New York City Ballet (Board Chair)Casper W. von KoskullCommittee Meetings in 2024: 15Citi elected CEO Jane Fraser as ChairJohn Dugan, who served as Chair of Citi's Board since 2019, will become Lead Independent DirectorCEO armies MMElon Musk Wants ‘Strong Influence' Over the ‘Robot Army' He's BuildingIn a Tesla earnings call Wednesday, the world's richest man pondered the future of his company's Optimus robots—and his control over them.“If we build this robot army, do I have at least a strong influence over this robot army?” he told investors. “Not control, but a strong influence… I don't feel comfortable building that robot army unless I have a strong influence.”His repeated use of the word “army” certainly stands out, suggesting the robot could eventually be used as a weapon. Is Musk considering having his robots be deployed as soldiers?Elon Musk Threatens to Leave Tesla if Shareholders Don't Approve His Trillion-Dollar Pay Package – Warns, “Which Other Automotive CEO Would You Like to Run Tesla Because It Won't Be Me”Secret Plans Reveal Amazon Plot to Replace 600,000 Workers With Robot ArmyThe ongoing CEO/Trump Oligarchical BromanceTrump pardons convicted Binance founder Changpeng ZhaoZhao, who is widely known as CZ, had pleaded guilty in 2023 to enabling money laundering while CEO of the huge cryptocurrency exchange.Zhao's plea was part of a $4.3 billion settlement Binance reached with the DOJ in 2023.The pardon of Zhao, widely known as CZ, came two months after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump family's own crypto venture, which has generated about $4.5 billion since the 2024 election, has been helped by “a partnership with an under-the-radar trading platform quietly administered by Binance.”NBC News, citing a public disclosure filing from Monday, reported that Binance in September had retained the services of the lobbyist Charles McDowell, who is a friend of the president's son, Donald Trump Jr.Trump calls off planned 'surge' of federal forces in San Francisco after talking to Jensen Huang and Marc BenioffHere are the donors contributing to Trump's White House ballroomIn summary: techbros, oil, tobacco, cryptoCorporationsAltria Group, tobacco (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)Amazon (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)Apple (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)Booz Allen HamiltonCaterpillarCoinbase (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)In February, the SEC dropped a pending case against the firm.Comcast Corporation (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)Google (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)$22 million toward the ballroom came from a settlement Trump reached with the Google-owned video site YouTube, ending a lawsuit he brought over the company's 2021 decision to suspend his account in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.Hard Rock InternationalHP Inc.Lockheed MartinIn an emailed statement, the company said it was “grateful for the opportunity to help bring the President's vision to reality and make this addition to the People's House, a powerful symbol of the American ideals we work to defend every day.”Meta Platforms (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)In January, Meta agreed to pay $25 million to settle a 2021 lawsuit brought by Trump that alleged the company's suspension of his social media accounts after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol amounted to an act of censorship.Micron Technology (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)MicrosoftNextEra Energy (donated $1 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)Palantir TechnologiesHas won hundreds of millions of dollars in new and expanded business since Trump's second term began, including contracts at the FAA, CDC, and further contracts with the U.S. military.Ripple (donated $4.9 million to Trump's 2025 inauguration fund)In March, the company's CEO announced that the SEC would drop its long-running litigation over whether its cryptocurrency is a security.Reynolds American, tobacco company.T-MobileTether AmericaThe company, which has ties to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, is the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin, a type of cryptocurrency designed to hold a steady value.Union Pacific RailroadIndividualsStefan E. Brodie: an American businessman, convicted felon, and political donor known for co-founding The Bro-Tech Corporation (Purolite Company), a chemical manufacturing firmHarold Hamm: the billionaire oil executive played a key role in helping Trump raise funds from oil industry donors during the 2024 electionBenjamin Leon Jr., the health-care company founder was nominated as U.S. Ambassador to Spain in March.The Lutnick Family: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is a billionaire and former Wall Street executive.Isaac “Ike” Perlmutter: former Marvel NEO who donated over $25 million towards the 2024 Republican campaign.Stephen A. Schwarzman: Blackstone CEO who donated $40 million to Republican organizations for last year's election.Konstantin Sokolov: private equity investor.Kelly Loeffler and Jeff Sprecher: Loeffler is head of the Small Business Administration; Sprecher is CEO/CHair/founder of Intercontinental ExchangePaolo Tiramani: founder of prefabricated homes company BOXABL Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss: co-founders of crypto platform Gemini.Activist investor group that includes Travis Kelce aims to revive struggling Six FlagsTravis Kelce is part of an activist investor group (with JANA Partners and others) that has acquired roughly a 9 % economic interest in Six Flags. The group's stated intention is to engage with Six Flags' management and board to improve performance, guest experience, marketing, etc. In the reporting by Reuters, it explicitly says that “Consumer executive Glenn Murphy and technology executive Dave Habiger … could, along with Kelce, serve as potential board nominees.”Goodliest of the Week (MM/DR):DR: Hundreds of Power Players, From Steve Wozniak to Steve Bannon to Richard Branson, Just Signed a Letter Calling for Prohibition on Development of AI Superintelligence"Nobody developing these AI systems has been asking humanity if this is OK."The letter cites recent polling from FLI, which was cofounded by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Max Tegmark, showing that only five percent of Americans are in favor of the rapid and unregulated development of advanced AI toolsMM: Linda McMahon mixed up AI and A.1. — so of course now the steak sauce is all over itAssholiest of the Week (MM):Robot armies DRSecret Plans Reveal Amazon Plot to Replace 600,000 Workers With Robot ArmyElon Musk defends $1 trillion pay package: ‘I just don't feel comfortable building a robot army here and then being oustedMeta tells some employees their jobs are being replaced by tech: read the memoAWS Outage That Took Down Internet Came After Amazon Fired Tons of Workers in Favor of AIUS firm's Star Wars-style humanoid robot soldier brings sci-fi to battlefield2024: What Is a ‘Clanker'? New Slur for Robots Catches On (it's also from Star Wars)Fake retirementJeff Bezos Says He's the 'Least Retired Person in the World'...And He'll 'Never Retire Because Work Is Too Much Fun'In our data, there are 251 US board chairs that are executives at the company, WERE the CEO, but are NOT the CEO now - that's 251 Jeff Bezos' who get paid like a CEO to work how they want without any accountabilityThey don't give press conferences or earnings callsThey don't answer to the CEO, they answer to themselvesThey control the board without having to answer to it122 of them are NOT family or founder firms - meaning they were just the CEO and they're sticking aroundThat includes Donald Umpleby at CaterpillarAt Schwab, Charles Schwab is a CO-chair with ex-CEO Walter Bettinger II, and the board has a THIRD CEO on it in Richard WursterThe average TSR performance of these people is .477 - below averageIn zero situations is it worth having any of these people on the boardBoysTrump says Jensen Huang and Mark Benioff helped convince him not to send troops to San FranciscoCiti CEO's $25 Million Bonus Is Excessive, Top Bank Analyst Mike Mayo SaysElon Musk got feisty about his $1 trillion pay package in the final minutes of Tesla's earnings callMicrosoft CEO Satya Nadella's annual pay jumps to $96.5 millionPalmer Luckey says he told Anduril investors they can't complain if he takes time off to be on 'Survivor'Elon Musk Accuses Head of NASA of Being “Gay”Bill Ackman calls Trump the 'most pro-business president we've ever had'Integrity for sportsWhile the Trump Administration inserts itself in every crypto venture with no oversight, openly insider trades, and Congress does the same, heaven forbid it happen in sports… Chauncey Billups, others arrested in FBI probe linking NBA to Mafia gambling ringHeadliniest of the WeekDR: Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky has one question he likes to ask every entrepreneur: ‘Why does your company deserve to exist?'MM: SPEED ROUNDTesla recalls over 63,000 Cybertrucks due to the front lights being too brightMosquitoes found in Iceland for first timeCracker Barrel CEO Says Logo Update Wasn't 'Woke' — Just Easier to ReadReading IS woke!McDonald's CEO says he eats at the chain '3 or 4 times a week'Who Won the Week?DR: obviously JaneMM: MosquitosPredictionsDR: In 2070, future MetaSoul (née Facebook/Meta Platforms) CEO August Zuckerberg has one question she likes to ask every non-AI human: ‘Why do you deserve to exist?'MM: McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski goes from his reported weight of 158lbs to 220lbs inside a year

October – will history repeat? New tariffs announced - again. Thinking about 401k plans - innovation or exploitation? And our guest today – Dr. Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic Studies at UC Berkley  NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE'S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Barry Eichengreen (George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee, Professor of Economics) is a distinguished professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he is the George C. Pardee & Helen N. Pardee Chair. A leading expert on the international monetary system and global finance, his research covers the history of global financial crises, the international monetary system, economic history, and the causes and consequences of populism. Dr. Eichengreen holds fellowships from several institutions, including the National Bureau of Economic Research and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and has previously served as a Senior Policy Advisor at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Learn More at http://www.ibkr.com/funds Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ eNVESTOLOGY Info - https://envestology.com/ Stocks mentioned in this episode: (BTCUSD), (ORCL), (OKLO), (QQQ)

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3292: Chelsea illustrates how even investing at the peak of the Great Recession would have yielded strong long-term gains, especially with dividends reinvested. By showing historical data from past downturns, she highlights that discipline, patience, and consistency in the stock market can transform even the worst-timed investments into substantial wealth. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://smartmoneymamas.com/investing-in-peak-markets/ Quotes to ponder: “In only 1 out of the past 10 recessions, starting in 1948, would you have seen your $10,000 investment lose money over a 10-year period, and only then if you had chosen not to reinvest the dividends.” “The sooner you get your money invested in the market, the more wealth you'll have in the future. Your money works for you, don't let it sit idle!” Episode references: National Bureau of Economic Research: https://www.nber.org Bureau of Economic Analysis: https://www.bea.gov Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this kickoff to our special series on trade, Nick and Goldy unpack why trade policy isn't just about tariffs and treaties—it's about people, power, and priorities. For decades, the prevailing narrative has been that trade benefits everyone by lowering prices. But the real question is: who does it help, and who does it hurt? From the false promises of globalization to the overlooked damage in hollowed-out communities, this episode sets the stage for exploring a fresh way to think about trade—one grounded in power dynamics, democratic values, and middle-out economics. David Autor is a labor economist and professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies how technological change and globalization affect workers. He is also co-director of the MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative and the National Bureau of Economic Research Labor Studies Program. Marc-William Palen is a historian and senior lecturer at the University of Exeter, specializing in the history of international relations, U.S. foreign policy, and political economy. He is the author of Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World.  Social Media:  @davidautor.bsky.social @davidautor @mwpalen.bsky.social @MWPalen Further reading:  Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World Recovering the Left-Wing Free Trade Tradition  Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer, @civicaction YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Substack: ⁠The Pitch⁠