Podcasts about national bureau

AI Usage Trends: Insights from Recent Studies and Real Conversations In this episode, host Jim Love reflects on two recent studies about AI usage. The first study by Harvard Business Review and Qualtrics identifies top uses for AI, emphasizing personal applications like companionship and life organization. The second study by the National Bureau of Economic Research examines actual ChatGPT interactions, revealing a significant rise in non-work-related use. The episode discusses the disparities between perceived and actual AI usage and explores the potential economic and societal impacts of AI, including differing views on its effect on the workforce. 00:00 Introduction and Host's Personal Note 00:19 Reflections on AI Studies 00:27 Harvard Business Review Study Insights 01:25 National Bureau of Economic Research Study Insights 02:06 ChatGPT Usage Statistics 02:55 Demographics and Usage Patterns 03:27 Work vs. Non-Work Usage 04:03 Categories of ChatGPT Use 05:32 Contrasting Studies and Real-World Impact 06:31 Economic Impact and Future Speculations 08:13 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this kickoff to our special series on trade, Nick and Goldy unpack why trade policy isn't just about tariffs and treaties—it's about people, power, and priorities. For decades, the prevailing narrative has been that trade benefits everyone by lowering prices. But the real question is: who does it help, and who does it hurt? From the false promises of globalization to the overlooked damage in hollowed-out communities, this episode sets the stage for exploring a fresh way to think about trade—one grounded in power dynamics, democratic values, and middle-out economics. David Autor is a labor economist and professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies how technological change and globalization affect workers. He is also co-director of the MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative and the National Bureau of Economic Research Labor Studies Program. Marc-William Palen is a historian and senior lecturer at the University of Exeter, specializing in the history of international relations, U.S. foreign policy, and political economy. He is the author of Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World.  Social Media:  @davidautor.bsky.social @davidautor @mwpalen.bsky.social @MWPalen Further reading:  Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World Recovering the Left-Wing Free Trade Tradition  Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer, @civicaction YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Substack: ⁠The Pitch⁠

In this episode we talk with Matt Notowidigdo about negotiating. Matt is a Professor of Economics at Chicago Booth. He holds a BS in economics, a BS in computer engineering, a MEng in computer science, and a PhD in economics. He is currently a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economics Research, and he is a co-editor at American Economic Journal - Economic Policy Notowidigdo and an Associate Editor at the Quarterly Journal of Economics.Sebastian Tello-Trillo is an Associate Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy at the University of Virginia.Alex Hollingsworth is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Ohio State University.Henry Morris is our main editor. He is a student at the University of Virginia studying computer science and mathematics. or of Economics at the O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs in Indiana University.In this episode we discussed:Matt's structured approach to managing no more than six projects at a timeTime management with kids and boundaries after tenureInstitutional differences in how research and teaching loads are supportedWhy lunchtime culture matters for faculty communityA crash course on academic job market negotiations

Nadège Rolland, Distinguished Fellow, China Studies, at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) and principal investigator for the Mapping China's Borderlands: Dashboard, joins the show to discuss the shifting visions China has of its frontiers.  ▪️ Times     •      01:35 Introduction     •      02:34 What is “China?”     •      10:26 Sovereignty             •      19:30 Double translation     •      25:25 Capillaries             •      34:37 Imperial messaging            •      42:36 Prioritization        We also discuss Nadège's 2020 report - China's Vision for a New World Order. Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find a transcript of today's episode on our School of War Substack

Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the outlook for U.S. stocks after Friday's nonfarm payroll data reinforced the thesis of a transition from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing Friday's Payroll report and what it means for equities. It's Monday, Sept 8th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. The heavily anticipated nonfarm payroll report on Friday supports our view that the labor market is weak. However, this is old news to the equity market as we have been discussing for months. First, the labor market data is perhaps the most backward-looking of all the economic series. Second, it's particularly prone to major revisions that tend to make the current data unreliable in real time, which is why the National Bureau of Economic Research typically declares a recession started at a time when most were unaware we were in one. Furthermore, history suggests these revisions are pro-cyclical, meaning they get more negative going into a recession and then more positive once the recovery's begun. It appears this time is no different. Indeed, Friday's revisions were better than last month's by a wide margin suggesting the labor market bottomed in the second quarter. This insight adds support to our primary thesis on the economy and markets that I have been maintaining for the past several years. More specifically, I believe a rolling recession began in 2022 and finally bottomed in April with the tariff announcements made on “Liberation Day.” After the initial phase of this rolling recession, that was led by a payback in Covid pull-forward demand in tech and consumer goods, other sectors of the economy went through their own individual recessions at different times. This is a key reason why we never saw the typical spike in the metrics used to define a traditional recession, although the revisions data is now revealing it more clearly. The historically significant rise in immigration post-covid and subsequent enforcement this year have also led to further distortions in many of these labor market measures. While we have written about these topics extensively over the past several years, Friday's weak labor report provides further evidence of our thesis that we are now transitioning from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery. In short, we're entering a new cycle environment and the Fed cutting interest rates will be key to the next leg of the new bull market that began in April. Central to our view is the notion that the economy has been much weaker for many companies and consumers over the past 3 years than what the headline economic statistics like nominal GDP or employment suggest. We think a better way to measure the health of the economy is earnings growth, and breadth; as well as consumer and corporate confidence surveys. Perhaps the simplest way to determine if an economy is doing well or not is to ask: is it delivering prosperity broadly? On that score, we think the answer is “no” given the fact that earnings growth has been negative for most companies over the past 3 years. The good news is that growth has finally entered positive territory the past 2 quarters. This coincides with the v-shaped recovery in earnings revisions breadth we have been highlighting for months. We think this supports the notion that the worst of the rolling recession is behind us and likely troughed in April. As usual, equity markets got this right and bottomed then, too. Now, we think a proper rate cutting cycle is likely and necessary for the next leg of this new bull market. Given the risk that the Fed may still be focused on inflation more than the weakness in the lagging labor market data, rate cuts may materialize more slowly than what equity investors want. Combined with some signs that liquidity may be drying up a bit as both corporate and Treasury issuance increases, it would not surprise me if equity markets go through some consolidation or even a correction during the seasonally weak time of the year. Should that happen, we would be buyers of that dip and likely even consider moving down the quality curve in anticipation of a more dovish Fed and coordinated action with the Treasury. Bottom line, a new bull market for equities began with the trough in the rolling recession that began in 2022. It's still early days for this new bull which means dips should be bought. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

In this episode Dominic Bowen and Professor Kimberly Clausing examine the return of tariffs to the centre of U.S. economic strategy and the risks this shift creates for the global economy. Find out more about how protectionism and populism are reshaping U.S. trade policy, why tariffs act as a hidden tax on consumers and small businesses, the political dynamics driving short-term wins over long-term stability, the impact on supply chains and export industries such as higher education, tourism, and technology, the risks of corruption and rent-seeking in tariff exemptions, and how international trust in the United States is being tested as allies confront unpredictable economic behaviour, and more.Professor Kimberly Clausing holds the Eric M. Zolt Chair in Tax Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law. Professor Clausing is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. During the first part of the Biden Administration, Clausing was the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis in the US Department of the Treasury, serving as the lead economist in the Office of Tax Policy. Professor Clausing has published widely on taxation, climate policy, and international trade, and is the author of Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital (Harvard University Press, 2019). International Monetary Fund, the Hamilton Project, the Brookings Institution, the Tax Policy Center, and the Center for American Progress and has testified before the U.S. Congress on multiple occasions. She has received two Fulbright Research Awards, and her research has been supported by the National Science Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the International Centre for Tax and Development, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you're a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter. The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

Indonesia has been trying to find its footing as a major international player over the past decade. These efforts include trying to deepen investment and trade relationships with the People's Republic of China while skirting around differences over territorial claims and addressing Beijing's rising prominence across Southeast Asia. Of concern as well is the pressure Chinese exports are placing on small and medium-sized enterprises in Indonesia, along with the safety of the hundreds of thousands of Indonesian citizens working in Taiwan should Beijing escalate the use of force across the Taiwan Strait. Host Ian Chong examines these issues with guests Natalie Sambhi and Yohanes Sulaiman. Natalie Sambhi is Founder and Executive Director of Verve Research, Señor Policy Fellow at the Asia Society Australia, and Non-Resident Fellow with the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program. She is also a lecturer with the Australian War College. Yohanes Sulaiman is an associate professor of international relations at Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani in Bandung, Indonesia and a non-resident fellow with the National Bureau of Asian Research.

China's commitment to cultivating new quality productive forces through scientific and technological innovation, as reiterated by President Xi Jinping, will help the country gain a competitive edge in strategic emerging fields and tech frontiers, and contribute to global economic growth, said experts and company executives.Highlighting that fostering new growth drivers has been high on China's development agenda, they called for accelerated efforts to achieve breakthroughs in crucial technologies by investing more in fundamental research, reinforcing the dominant position of enterprises in boosting technological advancements, and intensifying financial support for innovation-oriented tech companies.First put forward by Xi, who is also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, during his inspection tour of Heilongjiang province in September 2023, the term "new quality productive forces" has been highlighted at several high-profile meetings.New quality productive forces are driven by revolutionary technological breakthroughs, the innovative allocation of production factors, and deep industrial transformation and upgrading, Xi said while presiding over a group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in January last year.He pointed out that sci-tech innovation can generate new industries, new models and new growth drivers, which are the core elements of the development of new quality productive forces.The tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference held in December called for more efforts to make sci-tech innovation drive the development of new quality productive forces and build a modern industrial system.Huang Hanquan, head of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said, "Developing new quality productive forces is an intrinsic requirement for promoting China's high-quality development and will inject fresh momentum into global economic growth."Huang said that China has favorable conditions for fostering new quality productive forces, given its ever-increasing innovation capacities, complete industrial systems, ultra-large domestic market, high-caliber talent pool and massive data resources.To gain an upper hand in a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, he stressed that more efforts should be made to bolster sci-tech innovation, especially innovation in cutting-edge and disruptive technologies, and to accelerate the industrial application of innovative achievements, further deepen reforms in technology and education mechanisms, and expand high-level opening-up.A meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30, which was presided over by Xi, called for accelerating the cultivation of emerging pillar industries with global competitiveness and promoting the deep integration and development of sci-tech innovation and industrial innovation."Sci-tech innovation plays a pivotal role in nurturing new quality productive forces. China has sent a clear signal that it is dedicated to implementing the innovation-driven development strategy and facilitating the in-depth integration of digital technologies with the real economy, in a bid to drive a shift from old growth drivers to new ones," said Luo Zhongwei, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Industrial Economics.Luo emphasized the need to improve indigenous innovation abilities by stepping up investment in core technologies in key fields to solve bottleneck issues.Pan Helin, a member of the Expert Committee for Information and Communication Economy, which is part of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said, "The integrated advancements in sci-tech innovation and industrial innovation are crucial for promoting social and economic development, advancing Chinese modernization and cultivating fresh driving forces."According to Pan, China's focus on nurturing new quality productive forces is conducive to speeding up the establishment of a modern industrial system and enhancing the stability and resilience of industrial and supply chains.Pan said that in fostering new quality productive forces, different regions of the country should focus on comparative advantages and base their efforts on local conditions, avoiding blind investment in specific fields.Li Dongsheng, founder and chairman of Chinese consumer electronics maker TCL Technology Group Corp, said, "The development of new quality productive forces requires further stimulating technological innovation, continuously investing in scientific research and talent development, and supporting the intelligent transformation of industries."Li underscored the need to give full play to the leading role of enterprises in bolstering sci-tech innovation and motivate their innovation vitality.China's spending on research and development maintained rapid growth last year, thanks to efforts to support technological innovation. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's R&D expenditure exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan ($502.3 billion) in 2024, up 8.3 percent year-on-year, ranking second in the world.In recent years, the country's strength in sci-tech innovation has taken a major leap. According to the World Intellectual Property Organization, China has moved up to 11th place in the rankings of the world's most innovative economies and remains the only middle-income economy in the top 30."China is not only a manufacturing powerhouse, but also a global innovation powerhouse driving trends in digitalization, sustainability and high-tech industries," said Denis Depoux, global managing director of market consultancy Roland Berger."China has emerged as a strong player in the global R&D landscape, and has made rapid progress in the development of AI technology, becoming one of the global leaders, and the pace will further accelerate," Depoux said.The country's emphasis on accelerating the development of new quality productive forces will attract more investment by foreign companies to support Chinese companies' transformation, and to bring more technologies to the world's second-largest economy, he added.Anu Rathninde, president for Asia-Pacific at Johnson Controls, a United States-based smart building solutions provider, said the rise of new quality productive forces signifies a transformative shift in China's economic model, replacing outdated growth drivers with more dynamic ones and establishing the foundation for more sustained and robust economic development in the future.He said that China is an important part of the company's global business network, and will continue to be a key contributor to global economic growth. "We are confident in the Chinese market and determined to deepen our footprint here," he said.Chris Lee, senior vice-president and head of Asia-Pacific at Aveva, a United Kingdom-based industrial software developer, said that China has rapidly emerged as a global frontier for industrial innovation, presenting vast development opportunities fueled by the development of new quality productive forces and the country's vibrant digital economy.The company recently launched its China intelligent innovation center, its first localized R&D center, to deepen its "in China, for China" strategy.Lee highlighted that China's mature and extensive industrial system and supply chain offer an unparalleled platform for technological innovation, adding that the company will deepen its roots locally and collaborate closely with local partners to empower China's smart manufacturing and industrial digitalization.

Fuente original: ⁠https://youtu.be/_zisLqRa7tM?list=TLGGgHWWEMUIXUsyMDA4MjAyNQ⁠La compleja relación entre el Concilio Vaticano II y la crisis en la práctica religiosa católica. Se cita una investigación del National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) que señala un vínculo evidente entre el Concilio y la disminución religiosa, destacando que esta crisis fue más pronunciada en la Iglesia Católica que en otras confesiones. Los análisis sugieren que, aunque la crisis tuvo raíces preexistentes (como el modernismo y la posmodernidad), el Concilio actuó como un catalizador, intensificando estos problemas a través de su intento de diálogo con la modernidad y la adopción de un lenguaje pastoral menos preciso que uno definitorio. En esencia, las fuentes exploran cómo factores previos y las orientaciones del Concilio se combinaron para precipitar una manifestación significativa de la crisis religiosa.

Fuente original: https://youtu.be/_zisLqRa7tM?list=TLGGgHWWEMUIXUsyMDA4MjAyNQLa compleja relación entre el Concilio Vaticano II y la crisis en la práctica religiosa católica. Se cita una investigación del National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) que señala un vínculo evidente entre el Concilio y la disminución religiosa, destacando que esta crisis fue más pronunciada en la Iglesia Católica que en otras confesiones. Los análisis sugieren que, aunque la crisis tuvo raíces preexistentes (como el modernismo y la posmodernidad), el Concilio actuó como un catalizador, intensificando estos problemas a través de su intento de diálogo con la modernidad y la adopción de un lenguaje pastoral menos preciso que uno definitorio. En esencia, las fuentes exploran cómo factores previos y las orientaciones del Concilio se combinaron para precipitar una manifestación significativa de la crisis religiosa.

China's industrial production maintained its solid growth momentum in July, with value-added output from major industrial enterprises rising 5.7 percent year-on-year and 0.38 percent month-on-month, driven by strong performances in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors, which expanded by 8.4 percent and 9.3 percent respectively, official data showed on Friday.周五公布的官方数据显示，中国7月份工业生产保持了强劲增长势头，主要工业企业增加值同比增长5.7%，环比增长0.38%，这得益于装备制造业和高科技行业的强劲表现，分别增长了8.4%和9.3%。 Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's industrial output, which includes manufacturing, mining and utilities, rose 5.7 percent year-on-year in July, following a 6.8 percent increase in June.国家统计局公布的数据显示，继6月份增长6.8%之后，中国7月份包括制造业、采矿业和公用事业在内的工业产出同比增长5.7%。 Retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, grew 3.7 percent year-on-year in July compared to a 4.8 percent rise in June.零售额是衡量消费者支出的关键指标，7月份同比增长3.7%，而6月份增长4.8%。 Fixed-asset investment rose by 1.6 percent during the January-July period, compared to a 2.8 percent rise in the first half of the previous year.固定资产投资在1月至7月期间增长了1.6%，而去年上半年增长了2.8%。 The surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.2 percent in July, up from 5 percent in June, according to the NBS.根据国家统计局的数据，7月份调查的城市失业率为5.2%，高于6月份的5%。 The NBS highlighted that the data reflects China's steady economic momentum, demonstrating significant resilience and vitality despite the complex and volatile external environment and the adverse impacts of extreme domestic weather conditions.国家统计局强调，这些数据反映了中国稳定的经济势头，尽管面临复杂多变的外部环境和极端国内天气条件的不利影响，但表现出了显著的韧性和活力。 Recognizing that challenges and risks persist in the external environment, the NBS reaffirmed its commitment to promoting the effective implementation of policies aimed at maintaining stability in employment, business activity, markets and expectations.国家统计局认识到外部环境持续存在挑战和风险，重申其致力于促进有效实施旨在维持就业、商业活动、市场和预期稳定的政策。 fixed-assetn.固定资产/ˈfɪkst ˈæsɛt/ external environmentn.外部环境/ɪkˈstɜːnəl ɪnˈvaɪrənmənt/

Hitler, Stalin, and Mao ruled through violence, fear, and ideology. But in recent decades a new breed of media-savvy strongmen has been redesigning authoritarian rule for a more sophisticated, globally connected world. In place of overt, mass repression, rulers such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Viktor Orbán control their citizens by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures. Like spin doctors in democracies, they spin the news to engineer support. Uncovering this new brand of authoritarianism, Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman explain the rise of such “spin dictators,” describing how they emerge and operate, the new threats they pose, and how democracies should respond. Spin Dictators traces how leaders such as Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew and Peru's Alberto Fujimori pioneered less violent, more covert, and more effective methods of monopolizing power. They cultivated an image of competence, concealed censorship, and used democratic institutions to undermine democracy, all while increasing international engagement for financial and reputational benefits. The book reveals why most of today's authoritarians are spin dictators—and how they differ from the remaining “fear dictators” such as Kim Jong-un and Bashar al-Assad. Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century (Princeton UP, 2022) is aimed at a general audience, synthesizing a vast amount of qualitative and quantitative research by the authors and many other scholars. The book is highly readable, with a great mix of anecdotes and examples along with plain-English explanations of academic research findings. However, it also provides an excellent overview of contemporary global authoritarianism for academics. Almost every claim in the book has an endnote reference to the original research for those who want to follow up. The endnotes mean that despite its moderately intimidating 340-page heft, the main text is a very approachable 219 pages. Daniel Treisman is a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on Russian politics and economics as well as comparative political economy, including in particular the analysis of democratization, the politics of authoritarian states, political decentralization, and corruption. In 2021-22, he was a visiting fellow at Stanford University's Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences and he was recently named a 2022 Andrew Carnegie Fellow. A graduate of Oxford University (B.A. Hons.) and Harvard University (Ph.D. 1995), he has published five books and numerous articles in leading political science and economics journals including The American Political Science Review and The American Economic Review, as well as in public affairs journals such as Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy. He has also served as a consultant for the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and USAID. In Russia, he has been a member of the International Advisory Committee of the Higher School of Economics and a member of the Jury of the National Prize in Applied Economics Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of San Francisco, where he leads a new Master's program in Applied Economics focused on the digital economy. His research focuses on the political economy and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/world-affairs

Hitler, Stalin, and Mao ruled through violence, fear, and ideology. But in recent decades a new breed of media-savvy strongmen has been redesigning authoritarian rule for a more sophisticated, globally connected world. In place of overt, mass repression, rulers such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Viktor Orbán control their citizens by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures. Like spin doctors in democracies, they spin the news to engineer support. Uncovering this new brand of authoritarianism, Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman explain the rise of such “spin dictators,” describing how they emerge and operate, the new threats they pose, and how democracies should respond. Spin Dictators traces how leaders such as Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew and Peru's Alberto Fujimori pioneered less violent, more covert, and more effective methods of monopolizing power. They cultivated an image of competence, concealed censorship, and used democratic institutions to undermine democracy, all while increasing international engagement for financial and reputational benefits. The book reveals why most of today's authoritarians are spin dictators—and how they differ from the remaining “fear dictators” such as Kim Jong-un and Bashar al-Assad. Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century (Princeton UP, 2022) is aimed at a general audience, synthesizing a vast amount of qualitative and quantitative research by the authors and many other scholars. The book is highly readable, with a great mix of anecdotes and examples along with plain-English explanations of academic research findings. However, it also provides an excellent overview of contemporary global authoritarianism for academics. Almost every claim in the book has an endnote reference to the original research for those who want to follow up. The endnotes mean that despite its moderately intimidating 340-page heft, the main text is a very approachable 219 pages. Daniel Treisman is a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on Russian politics and economics as well as comparative political economy, including in particular the analysis of democratization, the politics of authoritarian states, political decentralization, and corruption. In 2021-22, he was a visiting fellow at Stanford University's Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences and he was recently named a 2022 Andrew Carnegie Fellow. A graduate of Oxford University (B.A. Hons.) and Harvard University (Ph.D. 1995), he has published five books and numerous articles in leading political science and economics journals including The American Political Science Review and The American Economic Review, as well as in public affairs journals such as Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy. He has also served as a consultant for the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and USAID. In Russia, he has been a member of the International Advisory Committee of the Higher School of Economics and a member of the Jury of the National Prize in Applied Economics Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of San Francisco, where he leads a new Master's program in Applied Economics focused on the digital economy. His research focuses on the political economy and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/russian-studies

Hitler, Stalin, and Mao ruled through violence, fear, and ideology. But in recent decades a new breed of media-savvy strongmen has been redesigning authoritarian rule for a more sophisticated, globally connected world. In place of overt, mass repression, rulers such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Viktor Orbán control their citizens by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures. Like spin doctors in democracies, they spin the news to engineer support. Uncovering this new brand of authoritarianism, Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman explain the rise of such “spin dictators,” describing how they emerge and operate, the new threats they pose, and how democracies should respond. Spin Dictators traces how leaders such as Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew and Peru's Alberto Fujimori pioneered less violent, more covert, and more effective methods of monopolizing power. They cultivated an image of competence, concealed censorship, and used democratic institutions to undermine democracy, all while increasing international engagement for financial and reputational benefits. The book reveals why most of today's authoritarians are spin dictators—and how they differ from the remaining “fear dictators” such as Kim Jong-un and Bashar al-Assad. Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century (Princeton UP, 2022) is aimed at a general audience, synthesizing a vast amount of qualitative and quantitative research by the authors and many other scholars. The book is highly readable, with a great mix of anecdotes and examples along with plain-English explanations of academic research findings. However, it also provides an excellent overview of contemporary global authoritarianism for academics. Almost every claim in the book has an endnote reference to the original research for those who want to follow up. The endnotes mean that despite its moderately intimidating 340-page heft, the main text is a very approachable 219 pages. Daniel Treisman is a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on Russian politics and economics as well as comparative political economy, including in particular the analysis of democratization, the politics of authoritarian states, political decentralization, and corruption. In 2021-22, he was a visiting fellow at Stanford University's Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences and he was recently named a 2022 Andrew Carnegie Fellow. A graduate of Oxford University (B.A. Hons.) and Harvard University (Ph.D. 1995), he has published five books and numerous articles in leading political science and economics journals including The American Political Science Review and The American Economic Review, as well as in public affairs journals such as Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy. He has also served as a consultant for the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and USAID. In Russia, he has been a member of the International Advisory Committee of the Higher School of Economics and a member of the Jury of the National Prize in Applied Economics Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of San Francisco, where he leads a new Master's program in Applied Economics focused on the digital economy. His research focuses on the political economy and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Matthew Kraft, professor of education and economics at Brown University, joins The Education Gadfly Show to discuss the intersection of education policy and climate change.Then, on the Research Minute, Adam Tyner examines whether an elite “exam school” led to better educational outcomes for its students.Recommended content: On education and climate changeEducation and climate change: Synthesizing the evidence to guide future research —Matthew Kraft, Sohil Malik, and Grace Falken, Anneberg Institute EdWorkingPaper (2025)Does spending on school facilities raise student test scores? —Amber M. Northern, Ph.D., Thomas B. Fordham InstituteHow school HVAC systems affect learning —Ali Schalop, Thomas B. Fordham InstituteThe Research MinuteOptimal school system and curriculum design: Theory and evidence —Glenn Ellison & Parag A. Pathak, National Bureau of Economic Research (2025)Threading the needle on selective enrollment public schools —Michael J. Petrilli, Thomas B. Fordham InstituteFeedback welcome: Have ideas for improving our show? Send them to Alicia Anderson at aanderson@fordhaminstitute.org.  

This episode was recorded live at the 2025 Joy & Wholeness Summit in Asheville, North Carolina.Dr. Xi (Sisi) Hu is a Co-Founder and the Chief Wellbeing Economist of Atalan Tech, a mission-oriented startup focused on using machine learning to predict and prevent clinician burnout and turnover. She is also a Fellow of the Center for Labor and a Just Economy at Harvard Law School and Research Economist at the National Bureau of Economic Research, with a research focus on labor issues. She specializes in modeling disruption and risks in labor markets, and is passionate about protecting the wellbeing of workers in the healthcare industry. Dr. Hu received a National Science Foundation grant to study COVID's impact on healthcare workers. Her expertise is in risk science where her work has received media attention from around the world including the World Economic Forum, Sky News, the UN, among others.Dr. Heather Schmidt is a family medicine physician in Fond du Lac, WI, who trained at Midwestern University and completed her residency at Exempla/St.Joseph's Hospital. She became the Medical Director of Health and Wellness at Agnesian HealthCare in 2013 and transitioned to the System Medical Director of Healthy Work and Well-being for SSM Health in 2020. Dr. Schmidt has collaborated with various partners to integrate well-being into initiatives such as leadership development and employee safety and has been instrumental in implementing the SSM Health Care for Caregivers peer support system and Schwartz Rounds. She continues her medical practice with a focus on weight management and mental health and enjoys spending time with her husband and daughters, skiing and boating in Wisconsin.Thanks for tuning in! Check out more episodes of The Well-Being Connector at www.bethejoy.org/podcast.

On this episode, hosts Robert J. Marks and Bradley Norris begin a conversation with Hal Philipp, the man behind the modern touchscreen and a prolific inventor with an impressive 98 U.S. patents. Hal shares his story and some of the lessons he’s learned over a career in invention. Hal’s journey began with a stint at the National Bureau of Standards Read More › Source

In a time of rapid technological change and geopolitical fragmentation, who benefits from artificial intelligence—and who gets left behind?Ronnie Chatterji, Chief Economist at OpenAI and former White House coordinator for the CHIPS Act, joins Gita Wirjawan for a deep conversation about the real-world consequences of AI: on jobs, infrastructure, regulation, inequality, and the fragile promise of growth across the Global South.Ronnie reflects on what it means to apply economic thinking to one of the most consequential technologies of our time.#Endgame #GitaWirjawan #OpenAIAbout the Guest:Aaron “Ronnie” Chatterji, Ph.D., is OpenAI's first Chief Economist. He is on leave as a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and previously taught at Harvard Business School. Earlier in his career, he worked at Goldman Sachs and was a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Chatterji holds a Ph.D. from UC Berkeley and a B.A. in Economics from Cornell University.About the host: Gita is an Indonesian entrepreneur and educator. He is the founding partner of Ikhlas Capital and the chairman of Ancora Group. Currently, he is teaching at Stanford as a visiting scholar with Stanford's Precourt Institute for Energy; and a fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.------------------------ Explore and be part of our community⁠ https://endgame.id/⁠---------------Collaborations and partnerships: ⁠https://sgpp.me/contactus⁠

In this episode, we talk with Tal Gross about new teaching techniques. Tal is a Professor in the Department of Markets, Public Policy & Law at Boston University. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on health insurance and household finance.In this book, Tal shares about his new book “Better Health Economics”, which you can buy through Bookshop.org, Amazon, or the publisher's website.They are also giving out slides, exams, and active-learning exercises to instructors. If you are teaching health economics – or know someone who is – they can provide the materials.Tal talked about his latest publication in economics just appeared in AER: Insights, and it's joint work with Tim Layton and Daniel Prinz.We talked about how to structure our day and refer to this article on Non-technical summary of decision fatigue.We also talked about how interruptions affect your work, and here is the George Mason study on interruptionsWe also talked about how writing is important and references the article: “One learns through the act of writing itself.”The Elite IllusionWe also talked about an easy way to improve student evaluations: Cookies improve student evaluationsAnd two articles that argue against student evaluations One and TwoHere is a Great summary of active-learning methods in STEM classesAwesome PNAS paper: active-learning method is more effective but feels less effectiveIn addition, Tal has put together A list I put together of resources on active-learning exercisesWe talked about ModLab, which provides a number of great active learning resources.Tal's recommendation of the week is to get a stopwatch, which is useful for setting a time to work, cooking, and many other things!Alex's recommendation of the week is the book “Teaching Statistics: A bag of tricks” by  Andrew Gelman  (Author), Deborah NolanSebastian's recommendation of the week is Ommwriter, a minimalist and relaxing writing appSebastian Tello-Trillo is an Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy at the University of Virginia.Alex Hollingsworth is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University.Henry Morris is our main editor. He is a student at the University of Virginia studying computer science and mathematics.

Scientific Sense ® by Gill Eapen: Prof. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé is Professor of Economics at Columbia University, an Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Her research focuses on the design of monetary and fiscal policies, including optimal macroprudential policy, and on understanding the sources and propagation of macroeconomic shocks within and across countries.Please subscribe to this channel:https://www.youtube.com/c/ScientificSense?sub_confirmation=1

A State Council executive meeting presided over by Premier Li Qiang on Thursday called for stepping up efforts to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, while arranging the implementation of interest subsidies on personal consumption loans and loans to service sector businesses to better stimulate consumption and enhance market vitality.本周四，国务院常务会议主持李强总理呼吁加大力度提高宏观经济政策的有效性，同时安排对个人消费贷款和服务业企业贷款实施利息补贴，以更好地刺激消费，增强市场活力。As the country's latest step to boost innovation-driven growth, the State Council executive meeting approved a guideline on deeply implementing the AI Plus initiative, calling for promoting the large-scale, commercial application of artificial intelligence and advancing its accelerated adoption and deep integration across various fields of economic and social development.作为中国推动创新驱动增长的最新举措，国务院常务会议批准了一项关于深入实施人工智能+倡议的指导方针，呼吁促进人工智能的大规模商业应用，并推进其在经济和社会发展各个领域的加速采用和深度融合。On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest purchasing managers index, or PMI, data, which suggested the necessity to consolidate the resilience of the manufacturing sector and overall economic momentum in the second half of the year.周四，国家统计局发布了最新的采购经理人指数（PMI）数据，该数据表明，下半年有必要巩固制造业的韧性和整体经济势头。Economists called for further reinforcing support for domestic demand and employment, as the nation's manufacturing activity cooled in July amid unfavorable weather and the traditional off-season. The official PMI for the manufacturing sector stood at 49.3 in July, down from 49.7 in June, the NBS said on Thursday.经济学家呼吁进一步加强对国内需求和就业的支持，因为在不利天气和传统淡季的影响下，该国7月份的制造业活动有所降温。国家统计局周四表示，7月份制造业官方采购经理人指数为49.3，低于6月份的49.7。Despite the moderation, high-tech manufacturing continued to gain traction in July, highlighting the vitality of the country's industrial upgrading and reinforcing the sector's ability to withstand ongoing external challenges, experts said.专家表示，尽管有所放缓，但高科技制造业在7月份继续获得动力，突显了该国产业升级的活力，并增强了该行业抵御持续外部挑战的能力。Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said, "With both domestic and external demand softening, the manufacturing PMI ended its two-month rebound and declined within the contraction territory in July."东方金诚首席宏观经济分析师王青表示：“随着国内外需求疲软，制造业采购经理人指数结束了两个月的反弹，7月份在收缩区间内下降。”The official manufacturing PMI has stayed below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction for the fourth consecutive month. In July, the subindex of new orders — a barometer of market demand — dropped to 49.4 from 50.2 in June, while that of new export orders went down to 47.1 from 47.7 in the previous month.官方制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）连续第四个月保持在50分以下，50分是扩张与收缩的分界线。7月份，作为市场需求晴雨表的新订单分项指数从6月份的50.2降至49.4，而新出口订单分项指数从前一个月的47.7降至47.1。External headwinds dampened export momentum, while the effect of earlier policies to boost domestic demand started to wane in July, Wang said, adding that high temperatures, heavy rains and flooding in some regions disrupted production.王说，外部逆风抑制了出口势头，而早些时候提振内需的政策的效果在7月份开始减弱，并补充说，一些地区的高温、暴雨和洪水扰乱了生产。Downward pressures on economic growth may intensify in the third quarter, said Wang, who expects additional measures to boost domestic demand as China's relatively low levels of sovereign debt and inflation have offered ample policy room to offset a slowdown in external demand.王表示，第三季度经济增长的下行压力可能会加剧。他预计，随着中国相对较低的主权债务和通胀水平为抵消外部需求放缓提供了充足的政策空间，将采取额外措施提振内需。The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held a meeting on Wednesday that made arrangements for economic work in the second half, emphasizing that macro policies should continue to exert force and be strengthened at an appropriate time.中共中央政治局周三召开会议，对下半年经济工作作出部署，强调宏观政策要继续发挥作用，适时加强。Xiong Yi, Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, said, "If GDP growth slows faster than expected, a budget deficit increase may become necessary in the fourth quarter."德意志银行中国首席经济学家熊奕表示：“如果GDP增长放缓速度超过预期，第四季度可能需要增加预算赤字。”He said he anticipates that the Chinese economy will grow 4.8 percent in 2025, following its strong resilience in the first half of the year.他说，他预计中国经济在上半年强劲复苏后，到2025年将增长4.8%。According to Xiong, service consumption is expected to become a new driver of economic growth and employment in the second half of the year. China is enhancing its support for service consumption, with a particular focus on cultural tourism, elderly care, healthcare and domestic services.熊表示，服务消费有望成为下半年经济增长和就业的新动力。中国正在加强对服务消费的支持，特别关注文化旅游、养老、医疗保健和家政服务。Despite the overall decline, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing came in at 50.6 in July, while that for equipment manufacturing was at 50.3, the NBS said, indicating the sectors' capability to thrive despite challenges.国家统计局表示，尽管整体下降，但7月份高科技制造业的采购经理人指数为50.6，而设备制造业的PMI为50.3，表明这些行业在面临挑战的情况下仍有能力蓬勃发展。For instance, Nantong Haixing Electronics Co, an electronic energy storage materials producer based in Nantong, Jiangsu province, saw its export value exceeding 50 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 67.23 percent, data from Nanjing Customs showed.例如，南京海关的数据显示，总部位于江苏省南通市的电子储能材料生产商南通海星电子有限公司在2025年上半年的出口额超过5000万元人民币（695万美元），同比增长67.23%。Jin Wenhui, the head of the company's foreign trade unit, said that despite intense worldwide competition, sustained investment in innovation has enabled the company to pursue industrial upgrading and remain resilient in a rapidly evolving global landscape.该公司外贸部门负责人金文辉表示，尽管全球竞争激烈，但对创新的持续投资使该公司能够追求产业升级，并在快速发展的全球格局中保持弹性。Guangdong Greenway Technology Co, a manufacturer of electric motorcycles and bicycles, as well as mobile energy storage systems, based in Dongguan, Guangdong province, shipped its products to more than 80 countries and regions across Europe and the Americas in the first half of the year, according to Huangpu Customs in Guangdong.广东黄埔海关表示，总部位于广东省东莞市的电动摩托车和自行车以及移动储能系统制造商广东绿道科技有限公司上半年将其产品运往欧美80多个国家和地区。Wu Jing, head of the company's foreign trade unit, said, "With years of development in lithium battery manufacturing, we've steadily increased our supply of high-quality, eco-friendly products amid the global shift toward energy transition, while actively exploring new markets and opportunities overseas."该公司外贸部门负责人吴京表示：“随着锂电池制造业多年的发展，在全球能源转型的背景下，我们稳步增加了高质量、环保产品的供应，同时积极探索海外新市场和机遇。”economic momentumn.经济势头/ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪk məˈmɛntəm/budget deficitn.预算赤字/ˈbʌdʒɪt ˈdɛfɪsɪt/

On this week's Education Gadfly Show, Vlad Kogan—professor and director of undergraduate studies at The Ohio State University—joins us to discuss his forthcoming book, No Adult Left Behind: How Politics Hijacks Education Policy and Hurts Kids (out August 21).Then, on the Research Minute, Adam highlights new findings from the National Bureau of Economic Research on the long-term benefits of participation in scholastic sports.Recommended content:“No Adult Left Behind: How Politics Hijacks Education Policy and Hurts Kids” —Vladimir Kogan“When School Board Elections Lose Their Voice” —Anna J. Egalite, Education Next“The Benefits of Scholastic Athletics” — James J. Heckman, Colleen P. Loughlin, and Haihan Tian, NBER (July 2025)Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our podcast? Send them to Stephanie Distler at sdistler@fordhaminstitute.org.

In this week's episode of China Insider, Miles Yu reviews Taiwan's ten-day long Han Kuang military exercise, involving civilian drills and military training to prepare for a potential invasion and counter ongoing PLA gray zone operations. Next, Miles covers the "800 Brother" story trending across Chinese social media and internet forums as the popular worker wage movements maintain their current momentum on a national scale. Lastly, Miles digs into China's reported 5.2% GDP growth over the second quarter of this year, and examines the historical efficacy of China's National Bureau of Statistics' economic analysis and reporting.   China Insider is a weekly podcast project from Hudson Institute's China Center, hosted by China Center Director and Senior Fellow, Dr. Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world's future.

Emma Unson Rotor took leave from her job as a math teacher in the Philippines to study physics at Johns Hopkins University in 1941. Her plans were disrupted when the Imperial Japanese Army invaded and occupied the Philippines. Unable to access her Philippine government scholarship to attend Johns Hopkins, she joined the Ordnance Development Division at the National Bureau of Standards. It was here that she did groundbreaking research on the proximity fuze, the “world's first ‘smart' weapon,” in the words of physicist Frank Belknap Baldwin, who also helped develop the technology. Learn about your ad choices: dovetail.prx.org/ad-choices

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows China's gross domestic product grew 5.3 percent year on year in the first half of 2025.

Today on Political Economy, I'm talking with Edward Glaeser about the problem with American housing supply and the many hurdles to building affordable homes. Ed and I look at the past century of urban and suburban construction and the attitudes and policies that have held back the US housing market.Ed is the chair of the economics department at Harvard University, where he has been a professor since 1992. He is also a visiting senior fellow here at AEI where his research focuses on urban economic policy. His most recent co-authored paper, “America's Housing Supply Problem: The Closing of the Suburban Frontier?” is published in the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Cuentahabientes, si ustedes creen que con la edad todo se vuelve más aburrido, Enrique Tamez nos va a explicar por qué cuando envejecemos somos más felices de acuerdo con un estudio publicado en el National Bureau of Economic Research (organización de investigación económica privada y sin fines de lucro, fundada en 1920 en Estados Unidos. Su sede está en Cambridge, Massachusetts). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bolstered by sustained policy support for trade-in programs, China's consumption is likely to continue its robust growth momentum in the second half of the year, better underpinning the country's stable economic growth amid mounting external uncertainties, analysts said.分析人士表示，在对以旧换新项目的持续政策支持的推动下，中国的消费可能会在今年下半年继续保持强劲的增长势头，在外部不确定性日益增加的情况下更好地支撑该国的稳定经济增长。China still has ample fiscal headroom to reinforce its trade-in initiative later this year should consumer demand exhaust its initial 300 billion yuan ($42 billion) allocation, they said, emphasizing that similar policy incentives could be extended to the service sector to foster more sustainable consumption growth.他们表示，如果消费者需求耗尽其最初的3000亿元人民币（420亿美元）的拨款，中国仍有充足的财政空间来加强其以旧换新计划，并强调类似的政策激励措施可以扩展到服务业，以促进更可持续的消费增长。On Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of 11 ultra-long-term treasury bonds in the third quarter, with four of them seeing their timelines accelerated compared with the previous plan released in April. This will help maintain a continuous flow of funding to support policies meant to boost consumption, analysts said.周二，财政部宣布在第三季度发行11只超长期国债，其中4只的发行时间比4月份发布的计划提前。分析人士表示，这将有助于保持持续的资金流动，以支持旨在促进消费的政策。According to the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic regulator, the third group of fiscal funding through ultra-long-term treasury bonds for the consumer goods trade-in program is scheduled to be allocated in July.周二，财政部宣布在第三季度发行11只超长期国债，其中4只的发行时间比4月份发布的计划提前。分析人士表示，这将有助于保持持续的资金流动，以支持旨在促进消费的政策。The central government has earmarked 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term treasury bonds to support the trade-in program for the whole year. The first two groups of fiscal funding, totaling 162 billion yuan, were allocated in January and April.中央政府已指定3000亿元人民币的超长期国债，以支持全年的置换计划。前两批财政资金共计1620亿元，分别于1月和4月拨付。"If the remaining 138 billion yuan runs out ahead of schedule, the possibility of unveiling additional funding this year cannot be ruled out," said Zhao Wei, chief economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵表示：“如果剩余的1380亿元提前用完，今年不排除推出额外资金的可能性。”。"As the trade war initiated by the United States still weighs on China's economy, efforts to shore up domestic demand will be of paramount importance to mitigate external shocks and maintain steady growth," he said.他说：“由于美国发起的贸易战仍对中国经济造成压力，提振内需对于缓解外部冲击和保持稳定增长至关重要。”。By avoiding a one-time, large-scale fund injection that could disrupt market dynamics, the phased allocation of the fiscal funds helps create a stable and supportive environment for the consumption recovery to take hold throughout the year, Zhao added.赵补充道，通过避免可能扰乱市场动态的一次性大规模资金注入，财政资金的分阶段分配有助于为全年的消费复苏创造稳定和支持性的环境。In late June, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, also pledged to leverage various tools in support of the trade-in programs, such as increasing credit support for recycling companies and home renovation suppliers and fast-track financing for manufacturers of energy-efficient smart home products.6月下旬，中国央行中国人民银行还承诺利用各种工具支持以旧换新计划，例如增加对回收公司和家居装修供应商的信贷支持，以及为节能智能家居产品制造商提供快速融资。"Boosted by the trade-in programs, sales of household appliances, furniture and communication devices have registered rapid growth. Sales related to trade-ins have surpassed 1.4 trillion yuan so far this year," said Li Chao, a spokeswoman for the National Development and Reform Commission, when addressing a news conference on June 26.国家发展和改革委员会发言人李超在6月26日的新闻发布会上表示：“在以旧换新计划的推动下，家用电器、家具和通信设备的销售额实现了快速增长。今年到目前为止，与以旧换旧相关的销售额已超过1.4万亿元。”。According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's consumer spending in May posted its strongest monthly growth since 2024, with retail sales of consumer goods expanding 6.4 percent year-on-year in May, a 1.3 percentage point increase from April.根据国家统计局的数据，中国5月份的消费支出出现了2024年以来最强劲的月度增长，5月份消费品零售额同比增长6.4%，比4月份增长1.3个百分点。Experts cautioned that although the trade-in policies have been effective in driving sales of consumers goods, they also carry the risk of front-loading consumer demand, which could create challenges down the line.专家警告称，尽管以旧换新政策有效地推动了消费品的销售，但它们也带来了提前满足消费者需求的风险，这可能会在未来带来挑战。"Providing similar consumption incentives to promote service sector spending could become a key policy lever going forward," said Jiang Zhao, an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.中国国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员江赵表示：“提供类似的消费激励措施来促进服务业支出，可能会成为未来的一个关键政策杠杆。”。Jiang noted that development patterns in advanced economies indicate that upon entering high-income status, nations typically experience a gradual rise in the proportion of service consumption. As China approaches this threshold, its consumption structure is transitioning from being focused on goods to being focused on both goods and services, he said.江指出，发达经济体的发展模式表明，进入高收入国家后，服务消费的比例通常会逐渐上升。他说，随着中国接近这一门槛，其消费结构正在从以商品为重点转变为以商品和服务为重点。Nevertheless, service consumption spans diverse sectors such as elderly care, tourism, fitness and healthcare, implying that subsidy programs would demand substantial fiscal funding and pose significant oversight challenges, Jiang said, adding that any decision to implement such incentives would require prudent assessment based on practical conditions.然而，江表示，服务消费涵盖了养老、旅游、健身和医疗保健等多个领域，这意味着补贴计划将需要大量的财政资金，并带来重大的监管挑战。他补充说，任何实施此类激励措施的决定都需要根据实际情况进行审慎评估。fast-track financingn.快速融资consumption structuren.消费结构

Consumer enthusiasm for online shopping in China has been evident during this year's "618" shopping carnival, an extended sales event that wrapped up on Wednesday, which experts said has played a pivotal role in unleashing domestic demand potential, promoting the recovery of consumption and shoring up the economy.本年度618年中大促活动于周三结束，中国消费者在此期间的线上购物热情有目共睹。专家表示，该活动对释放内需潜力、促进消费复苏和支撑经济起到关键作用。Emphasizing that consumption has become a major driving force for China's economic growth, they said major e-commerce platforms have taken a more pragmatic approach and simplified promotions this year, with a key focus on stepping up support for merchants and offering more cost-effective products for consumers.专家强调，消费已成为中国经济增长的主要驱动力，并指出今年各大电商平台采取更务实的态度，简化促销活动，重点加大商家扶持力度，同时为消费者提供更具性价比的产品。They said home appliances and smart electronic gadgets have gained in popularity among Chinese shoppers amid the country's drive to boost consumption, which includes the expansion of the consumer goods trade-in program.专家表示，在包括扩大消费品以旧换新范围在内的促进消费举措的推动下，中国家电和智能电子产品销量增长。Data from e-commerce giant JD, which initiated the midyear promotional campaign, showed that sales of smartphones priced between 4,000 yuan ($556.7) and 6,000 yuan rose 50 percent year-on-year during the promotional gala, which kicked off at 8 pm on May 31, while the turnover of artificial intelligence-powered laptops surged 151 percent from a year earlier.据618年中大促活动发起方电商巨头京东的数据显示，在5月31日晚8点开启的促销活动期间，售价4000元至6000元（约556.7美元）的智能手机销售额同比增长50%，而AI笔记本电脑的销售额较去年同期激增151%。China's Generation Z shoppers — those born between the mid-1990s and early 2010s — have shown robust purchasing power for personalized and trendy commodities, with electronic gadgets, mobile phones, home appliances, apparel, and beauty and skincare products being the most popular items among young consumers, JD said.京东表示，Z世代（1995年至2010年出生）消费者对个性化潮流商品展现出强劲购买力，电子产品、手机、家电、服装及美妆护肤产品最受年轻消费者欢迎。此外，越来越多的海外消费者参与618促销活动。京东跨境电子商务业务部门京东全球售的订单量同比飙升236%。Moreover, an increasing number of overseas consumers participated in the "618" promotional gala. Orders from JD Global Sales, JD's cross-border e-commerce business division, soared 236 percent year-on-year.此外，越来越多的海外消费者参与了“618”促销盛会。京东旗下跨境电商业务部门京东全球售的订单量同比激增236%。According to Tmall, Alibaba's business-to-customer platform, turnover of home appliances, mobile phones and digital products participating in trade-in programs increased 283 percent compared with last year's Singles Day shopping extravaganza, a weekslong sales event that peaks on Nov 11.据阿里巴巴旗下B2C平台天猫的数据显示， 参与以旧换新活动的家电、手机和数码产品成交额，相比去年持续数周并在11月11日达到高潮的“双十一”购物狂欢节，增长了283%。"The 618 online shopping extravaganza is pivotal to stimulating consumers' purchasing appetites, bolstering domestic demand and propping up economic growth amid external uncertainties," said Wang Yun, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research.中国宏观经济研究院研究员王蕴表示：“‘618'线上购物盛会对刺激消费者购买欲、提振内需以及在外界不确定性中支撑经济增长至关重要。”This year's Government Work Report listed vigorously boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand across the board as key priorities for 2025. 今年的《政府工作报告》将“着力激发消费潜能”和“推动内需全面扩大”列为2025年的重点工作重点。The country announced in January a raft of measures to expand the scope of the consumer goods trade-in program, increasing funding from 150 billion yuan last year to 300 billion yuan, and expanding government subsidies for categories of home appliances and electronic products such as smartphones, tablets, smartwatches and wristbands.国家于今年1月宣布了一系列扩大消费品以旧换新行动范围的措施， 将资金支持规模从去年的1500亿元增加到3000亿元，并扩大政府对智能手机、平板电脑、智能手表和手环等家电电子产品的补贴范围。Jason Yu, general manager of CTR Market Research, said the expansion of the trade-in program has not only motivated consumer enthusiasm and boosted sales of consumer electronic devices and home appliances on online marketplaces, but also propelled the popularity of high-end, intelligent and energy-saving commodities and elevated people's quality of life.央视市场研究(CTR)总经理虞坚表示， 以旧换新行动的扩大不仅激发了消费者的热情，促进了线上市场消费电子产品和家电的销售，也推动了高端、智能、节能产品的普及，提升了人们的生活质量。Yu emphasized that online retailers have made promotional methods simpler this time to improve the consumer shopping experience, given that Chinese shoppers attach great importance to product quality and value, and are inclined to purchase premium merchandise boasting high cost-effectiveness.虞坚强调，鉴于中国消费者非常重视产品质量和价值，并倾向于购买性价比高的优质商品，此次线上零售商简化了促销方式，以提升消费者的购物体验。Denis Cheng, consumer sector leader of EY Greater China, said the trade-in program has reduced costs for consumers purchasing new products of better quality and higher performance, thus promoting the optimization and upgrade of the overall consumption structure and bolstering sales of household appliances and digital products.安永大中华区消费品行业主管合伙人郑铭驹（Denis Cheng） 表示，以旧换新计划降低了消费者购买质量更好、性能更优的新产品的成本，从而促进了整体消费结构的优化升级，并提振了家电和数码产品的销售。Cheng highlighted the significant role of the midyear shopping festival in driving the recovery and growth of China's consumer market, providing consumers with more diverse and personalized shopping experiences, and further revitalizing consumption potential.郑铭驹强调了618年中购物节在推动中国消费市场复苏和增长方面的重要作用，为消费者提供了更加多样化和个性化的购物体验，并进一步激发了消费潜力。China's retail sales, a significant indicator of consumption strength, grew 6.4 percent year-on-year in May, compared with a 5.1 percent rise in April, making it the fastest pace of growth since late 2023, said the National Bureau of Statistics.中国国家统计局数据显示，作为衡量消费实力的重要指标，中国5月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，增速快于4月份的5.1%，为自2023年末以来最快的增长。Cheng said China's consumption market is expected to maintain stable growth fueled by the consumer goods trade-in program, online shopping festivals, stable recovery of the macroeconomy and gradual increases in household incomes.郑铭驹表示，在消费品以旧换新政策、线上购物节、宏观经济稳定复苏以及家庭收入逐步增加的推动下，中国消费市场有望保持稳定增长。online shopping网购shopping carnival购物狂欢promotional/prəˈməʊʃ(ə)nəl/adj. 广告宣传的；促销的government subsidies政府补贴turnover/ˈtɜrnˌoʊvər/n.营业额；成交额trade-in以旧换新

Israel's strike on Iran. Assassination of a Minnesota politician. Economics of aging.  Find us on YouTube. Mike and Clarissa discuss the complex backdrop of Israel's strikes on Iran, the assassination of a Minnesota politician, and a Christian response to political violence. Then, Clarissa sits down with economist Sita Slavov to discuss economic issues related to aging, including social security policy and wisdom for retirement.  GO DEEPER WITH THE BULLETIN: Join the conversation at our Substack. Find us on YouTube. Rate and review the show in your podcast app of choice. ABOUT THE GUESTS:  Sita Slavov is a professor of public policy at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. She specializes in public finance and the economics of aging. Sita has served as a senior economist specializing in public finance issues at the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, and she has testified before Congress. Her work has appeared in peer-reviewed journals such as the Journal of Health Economics and the Journal of Public Economics. She also has work published in The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, RealClearPolicy, and US News & World Report. ABOUT THE BULLETIN: The Bulletin is a twice-weekly politics and current events show from Christianity Today moderated by Clarissa Moll, with senior commentary from Russell Moore (Christianity Today's editor in chief) and Mike Cosper (director, CT Media). Each week, the show explores current events and breaking news and shares a Christian perspective on issues that are shaping our world. We also offer special one-on-one conversations with writers, artists, and thought leaders whose impact on the world brings important significance to a Christian worldview, like Bono, Sharon McMahon, Harrison Scott Key, Frank Bruni, and more. The Bulletin listeners get 25% off CT. Go to https://orderct.com/THEBULLETIN to learn more. “The Bulletin” is a production of Christianity Today Producer: Clarissa Moll Associate Producer: Alexa Burke Editing and Mix: Kevin Morris Music: Dan Phelps Executive Producers: Erik Petrik and Mike Cosper Senior Producer: Matt Stevens Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Economics is seeing an upsurge in the importance of controlled, reproducible empirical studies. One area where this has had a great impact is on development economics, which studies the economies of low- and middle-income societies. Edward Miguel has been at the forefront of both the revolution in empirical methods, and in applying those techniques to alleviating poverty in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere.Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025/06/16/318-edward-miguel-on-the-developing-practice-of-development-economics/Support Mindscape on Patreon.Edward Miguel received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard university. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Economics and Oxfam Professor in Environmental and Resource Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. He is also Faculty co-Director of the Center for Effective Global Action and a Faculty Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Among his awards are the Frisch Medal of the Econometric Society, the Kenneth Arrow Prize of the International Health Economics Association, and multiple teaching awards.Web siteBerkeley web pageGoogle Scholar publicationsWikipediaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

China plans to launch a program that will allow companies to provide robotic nursing products on trial basis to homes, communities and nursing facilities for the elderly from 2025 to 2027, according to a notice from two central departments released on Monday.根据中央两个部门于6月9日发布的通知，中国计划启动一项方案，允许企业自2025年至2027年期间，向老年家庭、社区和养老机构试点提供机器人护理产品。The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs said the program aims to improve the quality of life for elderly residents, ease family caregiving burdens and inject additional staffing capabilities to nursing homes.工业和信息化部与民政部表示，该方案旨在提升老年人的生活质量，减轻家庭照护负担，并为养老机构补充护理人力。Companies and research institutes will be able to apply to the program, which requires trial periods of at least six months in families, communities or nursing homes. For family-based tests, at least 200 robots must be provided to 200 families. Trials in residential communities or nursing homes must include at least 20 robots in 20 sites.企业和研究机构均可申请参与该方案。方案要求产品必须在家庭、社区或养老院进行至少六个月的试用。针对家庭的测试，需向至少200户家庭提供不少于200台机器人。在居民社区或养老院进行的测试，则需在至少20个场所部署不少于20台机器人。The notice encourages companies, research institutes and volunteering families, communities and nursing homes to jointly develop evaluation standards for robotic nursing services. These standards will be based on safety, adaptability, efficiency and cost analysis.通知鼓励企业、研究机构以及志愿参与的家庭、社区和养老院共同制定机器人护理服务的评估标准。这些标准将基于安全性、适用性、效率和成本分析来制定。Nursing homes that have no record of incidents of safety or legal violations in the past three years are eligible to apply. Companies must have mature solutions targeting elderly care, mass production capabilities for robots and assistive devices, and a strong talent and technology base.近三年无安全责任事故和违法违规记录的养老机构具备申请资格。企业需拥有成熟的智慧养老解决方案，具备机器人及助老辅具的规模化生产能力，并拥有坚实的人才和技术基础。Companies and research institutes must ensure their products are tested and certified. They also must have the capacity to manage risks and respond to emergencies. Maintenance staff members must be stationed at the trial sites and are required to be trained regularly.企业和研究机构必须确保其产品经过检测认证。同时，他们必须具备风险管理和应急处置能力。维护人员需驻守试点场地，并需接受定期培训。Products must feature advanced technology and have no intellectual property disputes.产品技术必须先进，且不存在知识产权纠纷。Robot makers, assistive device companies, universities, research institutes and nursing homes are encouraged to form alliances to participate. Local authorities are required to recommend and report suitable applicants to the two ministries before July 10. The ministries will then announce the final list after a strict review and evaluation process.鼓励机器人厂商、辅具企业、高校、科研院所与养老机构组建联合体参与申报。各地主管部门需在7月10日前，向两部委推荐并报送符合条件的申请者。两部委将经过严格评审遴选后公布最终名单。After qualification is confirmed, companies and voluntary trial sites will have two years to complete the program. Officials from the two ministries will evaluate the results.资质确认后，企业与志愿试点单位需在两年内完成试点任务。试点成果将由两部委官员进行评估。Local authorities are encouraged to provide supportive policies and offer financial and resource incentives to participants. Qualifications will be revoked if safety risks, accidents or legal violations occur, the notice said.鼓励地方政府为参与单位提供配套支持政策及资金、资源激励。通知明确指出，若试点期间发生安全风险、事故或违法违规行为，将取消参与资格。By the end of last year, China's population aged 60 and above surpassed 300 million, accounting for 21 percent of the total population, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Over 220 million of them were aged 65 and older, representing more than 15 percent of the overall population.国家统计局数据显示，截至去年末，全国60周岁及以上老年人口已超3亿，占总人口的21%；其中65周岁及以上人口超2.2亿，占比超过15%。The National Health Commission estimates that by around 2035, China's senior population will exceed 400 million, constituting over 30 percent of the total population.据国家卫健委预测，到2035年左右，我国60岁及以上老年人口将突破4亿，在总人口中的占比将超过30%。nursing homes养老院；疗养院ease/iːz/v. 缓解;减轻;缓和senior population老年人口elderly care老年照护，老年护理The National Health Commission国家卫生健康委员会trial sites试点中心

The aftermath of Biden's open border policies continues to haunt America as the consequences of mass illegal immigration continue to snowball. Changing attitudes towards, net positive, productive legal migration reflects the sentiment stirred up by the surge in illegal immigration we experienced the last four years. How does this affect workforce participation and address population decline? What role does the welfare state play? How are foreign adversaries using this mess as an opportunity to establish influence operations through universities, social media, and in foreign born communities? Has something changed about the nature of illegal migrants to America? And where is an immigration reform bill in Congress to address these issues permanently?Nicholas Eberstadt is the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute where he researched demographics, economic development, and international security in the Korean peninsula and Asia. He is also a senior advisor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, a founding board member of the US Committee on Human Rights in North Korea, and has served as consultant or adviser to the US Government and international organizations. His most recent book is the Post-Pandemic Edition of Men Without Work (Templeton, 2022). His demographic work on immigration focuses on societies facing population decline and the crucial role of skilled immigrants, both of which he addresses in his Working Paper, “America's Immigration Mess: An Illustrated Guide.”Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

China's price levels remained subdued in May, leaving ample room for further monetary easing and robust fiscal stimulus in the remainder of the year, analysts said on Monday.分析人士周一表示，中国5月份物价水平保持低位，为今年剩余时间进一步放松货币政策和实施强劲财政刺激措施留下了充足的空间。They said more policy support is needed to shore up demand in the world's second-largest economy, as policymakers navigate a more complicated and challenging external environment amid trade tensions with the United States.他们表示，在与美国贸易紧张局势加剧的背景下，决策者需要更多政策支持来提振全球第二大经济体的需求，因为政策制定者正在应对更加复杂和具有挑战性的外部环境。Their comments came as data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the country's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, fell by 0.1 percent year-on-year in May, the same as in the previous month.他们发表上述言论之际，国家统计局发布的数据显示，5月份，作为通胀主要衡量指标的中国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，与上月持平。Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, linked the subdued consumer prices to seasonal factors and a decline in oil prices, while noting the improvement in core CPI, suggesting the resilience of the domestic economy.中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬将CPI低迷归因于季节性因素和油价下跌，同时指出核心CPI的改善表明国内经济具有韧性。The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is deemed a better gauge of the demand-supply relationship, increased 0.6 percent year-on-year in May, up from a 0.5 percent rise in April, NBS data showed.国家统计局数据显示，剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，较4月份的0.5%进一步回升，被视为衡量供需关系的更优指标。On factory-gate prices, Wen said the decline reflected ongoing imported price pressures. "Although risk appetite increased early in the month due to favorable progress in US-China talks, with a slight rebound in commodity prices, excluding gold, commodity prices later dropped again as tariff threats resurfaced," he said.关于出厂价格，温彬表示，CPI的下降反映了持续的进口价格压力。他表示：“尽管本月初受中美贸易谈判取得积极进展的影响，风险偏好有所回升，除黄金以外的大宗商品价格略有反弹，但随着关税威胁再次浮现，大宗商品价格随后再次下跌。”China's producer price index, which gauges factory-gate prices, dropped by 3.3 percent year-on-year in May, widening from a 2.7 percent fall in April, the NBS said.国家统计局表示，衡量出厂价格的中国5月份生产者价格指数（PPI）同比下降3.3%，降幅较4月份2.7%的降幅有所扩大。Looking ahead, Wen said he expects CPI to rebound modestly but remain low in the near term, saying supportive macroeconomic policies would bolster core CPI growth.展望未来，温彬表示，他预计CPI将小幅反弹，但短期内仍将维持低位，并表示支持性的宏观经济政策将支撑核心CPI的增长。"A combination of incremental and existing policy measures are working in tandem to improve the supply-demand structure, which will support prices in relevant sectors. Increased travel demand during the summer will also drive up service prices."“增量与存量政策工具协同发力，将改善供需结构，对相关行业价格形成支撑。暑期出行需求上升也将带动服务类价格上涨。”As for PPI, Wen said conditions may gradually improve, though a return to positive territory will take time.关于PPI，温彬认为，尽管整体环境或将逐步改善，但短期内难以迅速转正。Considering base effects and current trends in consumer goods, energy, and industrial prices, Feng Lin, executive director of the research and development department at Golden Credit Rating International, said she expects consumer prices to remain flat in June, with the year-on-year drop in PPI likely staying around 3.3 percent.东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司研究发展部执行总监冯琳预计，考虑到基数效应以及当前消费品、能源和工业品价格走势，预计6月份CPI环比持平，PPI同比降幅仍将维持在3.3%左右。"With overall prices staying at low levels, promoting a reasonable rebound in prices will become an important macro policy goal in the second half of the year," she said. "This also opens up room for more proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and investment, as well as further interest rate cuts by the central bank."她表示：“在物价总体处于低位运行的背景下，推动物价合理回升将成为下半年宏观政策的重要目标。这也为央行进一步采取更积极的财政政策刺激消费和投资，以及进一步降息提供了空间。”Yuan Haixia, dean of the research institute at rating agency CCXI, said that China continues to face a complex and challenging external environment while domestic cyclical and structural economic issues remain intertwined.中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞表示，中国外部环境依然复杂严峻，国内经济周期性问题和结构性问题依然交织。While production remains relatively strong, domestic demand is only marginally improving and still weak overall as shown by subdued price levels, despite resilient external demand, Yuan said. "Policymakers should take advantage of the current policy window and intensify countercyclical measures in the short term."袁海霞表示，尽管生产保持相对强劲，但国内需求仅略有改善，整体来看仍然疲软，价格水平低迷是其主要表现，而外部需求保持韧性。“政策制定者应抓住当前政策窗口，短期内加大逆周期调节力度。”Yuan said that there is still scope for one to two more cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates during the remainder of the year, given the country's relatively high real interest rates amid low inflation and its ample policy space compared to economies like the United States and Japan.袁海霞表示，考虑到当前实际利率偏高、通胀较低，同时与美日等国相比，我国政策空间仍较为充裕，年内仍有1至2次降准降息的空间。On the fiscal front, stronger central government fiscal support is needed to expand domestic demand while around 1 trillion yuan ($139.22 billion) in additional fiscal funding could be introduced at a proper time to stabilize growth and improve expectations, she said.她表示，在财政方面，中央政府需要加大财政支持力度，扩大内需，同时可以适时新增约1万亿元人民币（约合1392.2亿美元）的财政资金，以稳定增长并改善预期。Yuan added that a balanced approach to encourage both consumption and investment is needed. Measures could include short-term cash subsidies, midterm tax reforms, and long-term improvements in income distribution to boost consumption. In parallel, investment priority should shift from physical infrastructure toward human capital, with a focus on raising investment efficiency.袁海霞补充说，需要采取均衡的政策措施，鼓励消费和投资。措施可能包括短期现金补贴、中期税制改革以及长期改善收入分配以刺激消费。同时，投资重点应从物质基础设施转向人力资本，并注重提高投资效率。stimulus/ˈstɪmjələs/n.刺激（措施）；促进因素resilience/rɪˈzɪliəns/n.韧性；恢复力countercyclical/ˌkaʊntərˈsɪklɪkəl/adj.逆周期的gauge/ɡeɪdʒ/n.指标；标准；衡量工具

Wall Street has us all on edge right now, so we called in one of the smartest people we know when it comes to stock market to help us make sense of it all, Sam Stovall. Sam is CFRA's Chief Strategist and a market historian that knows his stuff! He joins us in this episode to discuss: What stock market history tells us about the shaky situation we're in today  What tariffs really have to do with the stock market and economy  The 'rebalance' rule  Mid-term election tailwinds  Where the federal reserve fits into all of this  

The Clinton-era Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 was a significant reform of the welfare system as it had been known. In this episode, Dr. Lucie Schmidt draws on her co-authored paper, “Did Welfare Reform End the Safety Net as We Knew It? The Record since 1996,” to describe the safety net landscape before 1996, and how specific programs and overall coverage have changed since welfare reform was put in place. Lucie Schmidt is the Robert A. Woods Professor of Economics at Smith College and is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. She is also an IRP Affiliate.

When economic news, especially that revolving around working, gets reported, it tends to get reported in aggregate – the total number of jobs affected or created, the average wage paid, the impact on a defined geographic area. This is an approach labor economist David Autor knows well. But he also knows that the aggregate often masks the effect on the individual. In this Social Science Bites podcast, Autor, the Daniel (1972) and Gail Rubinfeld Professor, Margaret MacVicar Faculty Fellow, Google Technology and Society Visiting Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, examines two momentous changes to global economics and how they play out for individuals. He explains to interviewer David Edmonds how the rise of China's manufacturing dominance and the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence likely are and will affect individual people accustomed to do specific tasks for pay. What he finds is not as straightforward as the headlines alluded to above. Take China and its remarkable ascent and how that impacted the United States. “[The rise] benefited a lot of people. It lowered prices. It allowed American companies to kind of produce a lot of products more cheaply. You know, it's hard to imagine Apple's growth without China, for example, to do all that assembly, which would have been extremely expensive to do in the United States. At the same time, it displaced a lot of people, more than a million, and in a very geographically and temporarily concentrated way, extremely scarring the labor market. Now those people also got lower prices, but that's not even remote compensation for what they lost. And now there are new jobs -- even in those places where those trade shock occurs -- but it's not really the same people doing them. It's not the people who lost manufacturing work.” Concerns about these shocks have been widespread in the 2020s, but the tough if erratic talk about tariffs coming from the U.S. president centers on the idea of restoring something (while ignoring question of that thing ever existed or if it makes sense to go back). Autor argues that the administration actually is asking the right question – but they are arriving at the wrong answers, He notes that the U.S. currently has a half a million unfilled manufacturing jobs open already, a sizeable figure relative to the nation's 13 million manufacturing workers. But that number itself is roughly a tenth of China's 120 million. “We cannot compete with them across every front. .. What we should be very deeply worried about is losing the frontier sectors that we currently maintain. Those are threatened. So aircraft, telecommunications, robotics, power generation, fusion, quantum computing, batteries and storage, electric vehicles, shipping. These are sectors that we still have (except for shipping, actually) but China is making incredibly fast progress, and instead of trying to get commodity furniture back, we need to think about the current war we're in, not the last war.” At MIT, Autor is co-director of the School Effectiveness and Inequality Initiative, while off campus he is a research associate and co-director of the Labor Studies Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Send us a textIn this episode of Causes or Cures, Dr. Eeks chats with Professor Maureen Cropper, Chair of the Economics Department at the University of Maryland and a leading environmental economist, about her recent research on the health and economic impacts of toxic chemicals in plastics.We explore how an economist came to study chemical exposures and what her research reveals about the true cost of common compounds found in everyday plastic products. The conversation focuses on three major groups of toxic chemicals (BPA, DEHP, and PBDEs) and the serious health risks linked to them. Professor Cropper explains where these chemicals are commonly found, who is most at risk, and how she estimated both the public health burden and the economic costs tied to ongoing exposure.You'll also hear about what she believes needs to change: the policy actions, regulatory strategies, and paradigm shifts necessary to move toward safer, healthier materials. If you're concerned about chemicals in consumer products, interested in environmental health policy, or curious how economists quantify health risks, this episode is a great listen! Professor Maureen Cropper is a Distinguished University Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Chair of the Economics Department. She is also a Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future and a former Lead Economist at the World Bank. Dr. Cropper is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Her research focuses on valuing environmental amenities, estimating consumer preferences for health and longevity improvements, and analyzing the trade-offs inherent in environmental regulations. Her recent work examines the public health and economic impacts of toxic chemicals found in plastics. You can contact Dr. Eeks at bloomingwellness.com.Follow Eeks on Instagram here.Or Facebook here.Or X.On Youtube.Or TikTok.SUBSCRIBE to her monthly newsletter here.Support the show

Waffles for the Win Workarounds are the thing to avoid onerous tariffs Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - Waffles for the Win - Workarounds are the thing - Learning about the First Sale Rule Markets - 42 Days? And counting - Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite - US Steel Deal - WOW! - Fresh steam for speculation - lots of movement Waffling - What are your favorite way to eat waffles? - Friday - 50% on Europe - Blah Blah - 25% on Apple and every smartphone maker that brings in product to USA - Sunday - Delay the Europe tariffs until July 9th - Not sure where we are on Results - Markets swoon on the initial Europe Tariff announcement - Markets (Overnight Futures) Popped higher on the Waffle - Apple will look to eat and see a cut to margins - ---- Surely Apple will promise to build plants in the US and slow role it to get some relief --- Apple recently announced a 250,000-square-foot advanced manufacturing facility in Houston that is expected to begin operations in 2026, indicating a timeline of roughly 1.5 to 2 years from announcement to production start (managed by Foxconn - manufacturing AI Driver Servers China - Not bad - China's industrial profits rose for a second straight month in April, with their growth improving despite U.S. tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures, thanks to Beijing's measures aimed at supporting businesses. - Cumulative profits at major industrial firms climbed 3% last month compared to a year earlier, official data showed Tuesday, accelerating from a 2.6% growth in March. - In the first four months this year, industrial profits rose 1.4%, year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, bolstered by stronger earnings in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors. Facts though first: - Foxconn's Zhengzhou campus in China, often called “iPhone City,” spans over 1.4 million square meters (15 million square feet) and employs hundreds of thousands of workers. Approx 80% of Apple's annual iPhone production) -- To replicate this in the U.S., Apple would likely need multiple facilities totaling 10–15 million square feet or more, depending on automation levels and vertical integration. First Sale Rule - Love this!- - The first sale rule has been around since 1988 --- This is why markets/stocks/companies will always win - The “first sale rule” is a concept in U.S. customs law that allows importers to use the lowest cost of a good to calculate duties. - Under U.S. customs law, the first sale rule allows importers to base customs duties on the price of the initial transaction in a multi-tiered supply chain. Example scenario: A Chinese manufacturer sells a t-shirt to a Hong Kong vendor for $5. The Hong Kong vendor resells it to a U.S. retailer for $10. The U.S. retailer sells it to consumers for $40. - Using the first sale rule, the U.S. retailer can declare the $5 price for customs purposes, rather than the $10 resale price. - This approach reduces the duty owed by excluding the middleman's markup. Asked AI to make easier to understand in an infographic AI Info-graphic Boeing Update - The U.S. Justice Department said Friday that it has reached a deal with Boeing - That will allow the aircraft maker to avoid prosecution over two crashes of its 737 Max planes that killed 346 people. - The non-prosecution agreement would allow Boeing, a major military contractor and top U.S. exporter, to avoid being labeled a felon. - The decision means Boeing won't face trial as scheduled next month,

This week's show is sponsored by: EPIC-MRA Public Opinion Research MIRS News Fulton Fish Market

What are tariffs really used for? For economic protection? For political gain? For enforcing foreign policy? In this interview, I discuss the following with my guest scholar: ►Why James Madison foresaw tariffs as an inevitable source of conflict? ►In U.S. history, did Americans ever complain that tariffs are really a tax on the people? ►What was the first instance in which tariffs were used as a foreign policy tool? ►What is the Tariff of Abominations? ►How did tariffs backfire on Southern politicians? ►How are tariffs and secession movements related? ►Were tariffs part of Civil War's history? ►What powers did Congress grants to FDR over tariffs? ►What part of U.S. history does Pres. Trump point to as justification for his tariff policy? ►What was Pres. Reagan's tariff policy? ►How is tariff policy with the USSR different than our tariff policy toward China?

Throughout the campaign of 2024, President Donald Trump promised to use tariffs to reset America’s global trade relationships, revitalize American manufacturing, and increase government revenues—and in the first months of his second administration, the president has used tariffs and the threat of tariffs to drive concessions even while raising antagonism and roiling markets. Kimberly Clausing helps us distinguish between the rhetoric and the reality of these tariffs. Clausing is an expert on the taxation of multinational firms. She served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis in the U.S. Department of the Treasury, serving as the lead economist in the Office of Tax Policy during the Biden administration. She is a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Clausing has worked on economic policy research with the International Monetary Fund, the Hamilton Project, the Brookings Institution, the Tax Policy Center, and the Center for American Progress. She has testified before the House Ways and Means Committee, the Senate Committee on Finance, the Senate Committee on the Budget, and the Joint Economic Committee. Her research examines how government decisions and corporate behavior interplay in the global economy. She has published numerous articles on the taxation of multinational firms, and she is the author of “Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to episode #983 of Six Pixels of Separation - The ThinkersOne Podcast. Matthew Weinzierl is not just thinking about the future of the economy - he's thinking about the economy of the final frontier. As a professor at Harvard Business School and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Matt brings the analytical rigor of economic policy to a space sector that's shifting from sci-fi to IPO. In our conversation, we unpack the big thesis behind his new book Space To Grow - Unlocking The Final Economic Frontier(co-authored with Mehak Sarang Rousseau), which reframes space as something more than spectacle or science - it's a place where real economic value is being created right now. This isn't about day trips to orbit or Mars hotels (not yet). It's about the role of market forces, national security, broadband access, sustainability, microgravity manufacturing, and the essential debate between centralized control and decentralized innovation. Matt has built a career studying tax policy and the philosophical underpinnings of economic systems, and now he's applying that lens to a commercial space industry that's still defining its rules. We talk about SpaceX's dominance and what it means for competition, the outdated frameworks of international space law, and why economists are uniquely suited to help structure the future of space activity. We also explore the symbolic and practical value of human exploration, and how figures like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos shape the public's understanding of what's possible (and what might be hype). What makes Matt so compelling is his clarity... he doesn't get swept up in the cosmic dreams without asking who benefits, who governs, and what kind of economic system we're building in orbit and beyond. If you've been curious about the real forces shaping the space economy - and what it might mean for Earth - this episode is a must-listen. Enjoy the conversation... Running time: 58:47. Hello from beautiful Montreal. Listen and subscribe over at Apple Podcasts. Listen and subscribe over at Spotify. Please visit and leave comments on the blog - Six Pixels of Separation. Feel free to connect to me directly on Facebook here: Mitch Joel on Facebook. Check out ThinkersOne. or you can connect on LinkedIn. ...or on X. Here is my conversation with Matthew Weinzierl. Space To Grow - Unlocking The Final Economic Frontier. Economics Of Space. Mehak Sarang Rousseau. Follow Matt on LinkedIn. Chapters: (00:00) - Introduction to Space Economics. (03:05) - The Intersection of Economics and Space. (06:09) - Challenges in the Space Sector. (09:06) - Market Dynamics and Competition in Space. (12:11) - The Role of National Security in Space. (14:48) - The Future of Space Exploration. (18:02) - Arguments For and Against Space Exploration. (29:32) - The Double-Edged Sword of Celebrity in Business. (31:13) - Decentralization: Opportunities and Challenges. (35:26) - Balancing Centralization and Decentralization in Space. (38:32) - The Ethical Implications of Space Exploration. (40:17) - Regulating the New Frontier: Challenges Ahead. (44:54) - The Reality of Mars Missions. (48:53) - Unlocking the Value of Space Resources. (51:37) - The Role of Humans in Space Exploration. (53:46) - Economic Policies and Global Trade Dynamics.

Premiums are rising. Insurers are leaving markets. But people keep building in risk-prone areas, and the climate disasters just keep coming. Can insurance markets adapt? In this episode, Shayle talks to Dr. Judd Boomhower, an assistant professor of economics at the University of California-San Diego and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He studies how insurance markets are reacting to climate change. Shayle and Judd cover topics like: Why insurers are limiting coverage in California, Florida, and other high-risk markets How disaster insurance, unlike auto or health insurance, faces a flood of claims all at the same time How catastrophe models (or “cat models” for short) work and why AI and other improvements struggle the solve the fundamental problem: a lack of historical data needed to predict future events The challenges of private “black-box” catastrophe models that can't be reviewed by third parties Reinsurance markets and why they're not attracting more capital to shore up insurers The pros and cons of parametric insurance, an emerging category of insurance products Undercapitalized “fly-by-night” insurers that risk insolvency and failing to pay out claim Recommended resources NBER: How Are Insurance Markets Adapting to Climate Change? Risk Classification and Pricing in the Market for Homeowners Insurance Brookings: “How is climate change impacting home insurance markets?” Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by Anza, a platform enabling solar and storage developers and buyers to save time, reduce risk, & increase profits in their equipment selection process. Anza gives clients access to pricing, technical, and risk data and tools that they've never had access to before. Learn more at go.anzarenewables.com/latitude. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com.

A recent study conducted by researchers from the University of Toronto, University of Oklahoma, the Census Bureau, and the National Bureau of Economic Research at Stanford reveals a significant productivity pattern known as the J-curve in American manufacturing following AI adoption. The study indicates that companies often experience short-term productivity losses before realizing long-term gains. Initial use of industrial AI leads to increased work-in-progress inventory and investment in robotics, alongside labor reductions and declines in profitability, particularly affecting older businesses. However, those that adopt growth-oriented strategies can mitigate these initial losses and benefit from stronger growth over time.The podcast also discusses the disconnect between public perception and expert opinion regarding AI capabilities. A panel from the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence found that a majority of researchers believe public understanding does not align with the reality of AI research, which is hindering progress. Many experts argue that simply scaling up current AI approaches will not lead to achieving human-like intelligence, advocating instead for a cautious and collaborative approach to AI development that emphasizes safety and ethical governance.In addition to AI discussions, the episode highlights the concerning expansion of North Korean IT scams into Europe, targeting high-value sectors such as defense and government. These operatives are using fabricated identities to secure lucrative positions, with the potential to generate billions annually. The FBI has confirmed this shift in tactics, indicating a growing trend of extortion attempts by North Korean operatives. The episode also covers Microsoft's new email security measures aimed at high-volume senders to combat phishing and spoofing attacks, emphasizing the importance of compliance with stricter email authentication standards.Finally, the podcast touches on broader themes of technological advancement and innovation, particularly in the context of competition between the U.S. and China. Notable opinion pieces highlight the rapid technological growth in China, raising concerns about the U.S.'s ability to maintain its innovative edge. The discussion emphasizes the need for businesses to prepare for a fragmented global tech landscape, encouraging investment in automation and AI as part of a resilience strategy. The episode concludes with a reminder of the importance of practical applications of technology, rather than succumbing to the hype surrounding AI. Four things to know today 00:00 AI Adoption: Why the Road to Innovation Is Bumpy but Worth It—According to Experts05:36 North Korean IT Scams Go Global While Microsoft Gets Tough on Spam—Plus DoD's Signal Investigation 08:41 N-able Integrates, TD SYNNEX Finances, and Microsoft Bets on Cloud PCs—What MSPs Need to Know10:46 AI Hype vs. Reality: Are Incremental Gains Enough to Compete Globally?  Supported by:  https://www.huntress.com/mspradio/https://cometbackup.com/?utm_source=mspradio&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=sponsorship  Join Dave April 22nd to learn about Marketing in the AI Era.  Signup here:  https://hubs.la/Q03dwWqg0 All our Sponsors: https://businessof.tech/sponsors/ Do you want the show on your podcast app or the written versions of the stories? Subscribe to the Business of Tech: https://www.businessof.tech/subscribe/Looking for a link from the stories? The entire script of the show, with links to articles, are posted in each story on https://www.businessof.tech/ Support the show on Patreon: https://patreon.com/mspradio/ Want to be a guest on Business of Tech: Daily 10-Minute IT Services Insights? Send Dave Sobel a message on PodMatch, here: https://www.podmatch.com/hostdetailpreview/businessoftech Want our stuff? Cool Merch? Wear “Why Do We Care?” - Visit https://mspradio.myspreadshop.com Follow us on:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/28908079/YouTube: https://youtube.com/mspradio/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mspradionews/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mspradio/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@businessoftechBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/businessof.tech

Keith shares some historical perspective on inflation highlighting the cost of a Taco Bell meal in 1999 to its cost today. He also touches on the concept of service inflation, where services like mail delivery and self-checkout at grocery stores have become less convenient but not cheaper. Keith reviews the historical performance of real estate during the last eight recessions, noting that housing prices usually rise during recessions. He explains the concept of the Inflation Triple Crown: asset price inflation, debt debasement, and cash flow enhancement. Housing prices usually rise during recessions, as demonstrated by historical data. Resources: To learn more about the Inflation Triple Crown go to: getricheducation.com/itc. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/547 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, is higher inflation or even hyper inflation now in our future, and is an imminent recession, or even worse, a depression lurking. What's it all mean for your investments and your real estate? We'll investigate exactly what happens to real estate during recessions, historically today, on get rich education,   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:19   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:35   Welcome to GRE from Hartsdale, New York to Springdale, Utah and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. I think you know that by now, you are inside one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate investing shows. This is get rich education. Most people have two plans. Plan a get rich. If that doesn't work out, the alternative is Plan B, which is hate rich people.   We are firmly rooted in plan a for you here. So yes, we're about building your wealth, but ultimately we are a lifestyle improvement show. I'm going to get to high inflation and the potential for a recession or depression in just a minute. But I recently got a reminder on the fragility of life and its finite nature. My oldest friend recently died. He was almost like a mentor to me, a friend of mine's grandmother recently died, shattering her world, and it's a reminder that you won't be remembered for the money that you make. You won't even be remembered the real estate portfolio that you build. I mean, that surely won't last. The tennis that you serve, they'll die as well. I will be forgotten. This show will be forgotten. The people that love you, their opinions will die with them. Your Haters, their opinions will die with them. You can confirm that this is true right now by naming your eight great grandparents for me, there. Go ahead. You can't do it. I can't either. So what can you do, at least in this finite life that you have on earth? What you can do is enjoy your existence. The good news is, because you can control this, you can control enjoying your life and existence as get rich education is ultimately a lifestyle improvement show, and we are squarely helping you do that right here. And one way that I've done that over the years is by pointing out how inflation is actually advantageous to real estate investors. Well, it impoverishes most people. You're initiated on that by now. That's something that you really found out tangibly back during the pandemic. Now today, though, wow, people are frightened. I've got some contemporaneous material to share with you today, but I'll give you some lessons so that even if you're listening to this 10 years from now, you're going to learn some lessons. Americans inflation expectations for the next five years. They just hit the highest level since 1993 Yeah, expecting a lot of inflation, tariff pressures are a huge concern now. Last week, inside our newsletter, I sent you something that gave you some perspective on inflation. I sent you a photo of a Taco Bell receipt from 1999that might have left your mouth agape if you didn't see it. I'll tell you about it here and expand on this. And yes, it could leave you aghast, stupefied, gobsmacked, or even flabbergasted. In a sense, 1999 was not that long ago. It's sure not like ancient history. I mean, I was alive then, yes, I am here, and I'm from the 1900s. Well, this 1999 Taco Bell receipt that someone found perfectly preserved in the pages of a book. It shows a complete meal that was purchased for $3.50 it was actually just $3.26 and then the rest was tax added in. That's 350 for a chili cheese burrito, a taco nachos and a 16 ounce Pepsi. That's not the price for each item. That is the combined total from 1999 All right, how much do you think those same items would cost today? I don't eat there. I went to the Taco Bell website and found out. I mean, what an inflation measuring stick. This is what cost, 350 A Taco Bell in 1999 costs $11.44 today I use the same sales tax rate to come up with that. So today it's 1144 and today they also ask you a question a Taco Bell, if you want to round up for the kids or something like that, and then just watch, pretty soon, they're gonna request a tip too. That's a 327% price increase, and few people's wages have risen that much since 1999See, I told you that you would be left slack job and flabbergasted. All right, so let's look at where we are today. Now it's not an apples to apples comparison, but you know, Taco Bell is a fast food restaurant. Let's look at the price of a consumer item at a sports stadium today. All right, because both are places that everyday Americans frequent college basketball's March Madness tournaments have been taking place the last few weeks. Well, for the first time ever, the SEC is selling beer at its tournament. The price for one large premium draft beer is $17.50 so before tax or tip, 1750 for one beer all in that might be $20 or more, and I doubt that the beer is really that premium. I mean, you know what kind of beer you get at stadiums. So we look at inflation, one beer today is at least five times the cost of a complete Taco Bell meal in 1999   that's price inflation, and that's the stuff that's highly perceptible. Okay, you've been seeing that effect all of your life. It's making most people poorer. It's making real estate investors wealthier. And then there's the inflation that few people consider the less perceptible stuff, service inflation. And what are some examples of service inflation growing up the postal service delivered mail right to my parents porch, and they still do deliver mail right to my parents porch. Their neighborhood was built more than 100 years ago, but look, when new neighborhoods are built today, like places I've lived and perhaps where you live now, the postal service doesn't deliver your mail right to the individual mailbox on your porch. Today, you've got to walk both ways to your neighborhood's mailbox cluster. Some people even have to drive to get their mail. So your mail is no longer being delivered. Really, you have to go pick it up. Well, they don't lower the price for that reduced service level. That's service inflation. A second example is more obvious, grocery self checkout. You're taking the time and doing the work of scanning your groceries, but yet, they sure aren't lowering the prices of your lettuce and your beef jerky. And look service, inflation is here to stay. That is because companies make investments in it. The Postal Service bought those mailbox clusters, the supermarket bought those self checkout kiosks.    All right, so with this ramp and price inflation and service inflation, along with it, and the other forms of inflation that I've talked about on the show before, like stagflation, tip inflation and Shrink flation and skimpflation. What is an individual investor like you supposed to do? Well, stock and mutual fund investors get killed by inflation. I mean, think about it this way, just killed if the Sp5, 100 gains 10% but there's 5% inflation. That's a 50% hidden tax on your gain, plus you might pay capital gains tax. On top of that, savers really get obliterated. I mean, just destroyed if your bond yield or your savings account pays 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation. That is a 125% hidden tax on your gain, and then you might pay regular tax on top of that. So stocks and mutual funds and savings accounts are not the answer. What is the answer? Real Estate and borrowing the opposite of saving. And let me address now, whenever people get fearful that another wave of inflation is coming, whether that's tariff induced or otherwise, let's not get carried away and think that Hyperinflation is right around the corner, although definitions of hyperinflation vary, the most accepted one by economists is a 50% inflation rate per month, not annually, per month. So that would be over 600% a year, with compounding. I mean, that would be really hard to get, but what we do know is that inflation is still elevated above the Fed's 2% target. It's 2.8% today. And what we do know is that more inflation is coming at what rate nobody knows. These facts almost necessitate that you have either got to start your own business, which is tough, or become a real estate investor which is easier, in order to escape this and acquire some lasting wealth. Any devoted listener here knows that the formula for beating it is luckily, not highly sophisticated, not esoteric, not anything that you need a degree or certification for, just own income properties with loans, and that's when inflation produces three profit centers. As we know that is something that I coined as the inflation triple crown. So if you're new, you're learning something. If you've been around here for a while, here's a little comprehension test for you. What are the three crowns in the inflation Triple Crown, you win with asset price inflation, debt debasement and cash flow enhancement. Asset price inflation benefits you because you have leverage gains debt debasement passively lightens our debt burden for us, and then cash flow enhancement, that boosts our cash flow above the inflation rate, because our principal and interest payment stays fixed. And you can learn more about that totally free. You don't even have to leave your email address or anything. You can watch the three videos of the inflation Triple Crown at get rich education.com/itc. For inflation, Triple Crown, it's just good free learning for you there I've made available at get rich education.com/itc, it is a foundational financial education. Is a recession or even a depression eminent, that's straight ahead. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments. Liquidity fund again. Text family, to 66866   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   you   Dani-Lynn Robison  15:45   This is freedom. Family investments. Co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  16:00   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Wynne Holland, you are inside episode 547. I'll tell you, being a landlord or real estate investor can really change you now. I was using the stair climber at the gym just before talking to you today, I like to set up a big fan down on the floor to keep me cool before running or climbing. Plug it in, set up a fan. When I'm done, I turn off the fan. It's just a habit. I don't pay the electricity bill at my gym, but it's just the way that I would want to be treated. But you know what? When I find a fan that's already set up before I grab it and start on the treadmill. That fan is always running when no one is using it. No one turns off their fans when they don't have to pay for the electricity. And this reminds me of when I owned apartment buildings in Anchorage, Alaska, and tenants kept their windows open, even during the frigid winter, so that they could get fresh air. Yeah, you can guess who was paying the heating bill. It wasn't the tenant. It was me. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely that the owner is the one that pays for more of the utilities. And of course, in that case, you can look into utility sub metering. That process can be costly, but it might be worth it. It can increase your cash flow and your net operating income, which, when it increases your net operating income, that means that it also increases the apartment buildings value. And you know, in real estate today, you've got to look for where the opportunities are. There are opportunities in every market today. For places where there are specifically good opportunities are apartment buildings where their values have fallen 20 to 30% in some markets, it's wise to invest in beaten down sectors that you just know are going to come back like you know, the demand for apartment buildings is going to be there long term. This doesn't mean that you want to invest in any beaten down sector, like Office real estate in general. I don't see how that's coming back. A second strong real estate opportunity today is to find over built pockets, especially ones that exist in Texas and Florida. I mean, this is why they call them buyers markets. A Texas or Florida seller might make you a deal, and that doesn't mean everywhere in these states. For example, Southwest Florida is one area that's specifically over built, even amidst the national landscape that's under built. A third and a fourth area of specific real estate opportunity today are two that I have mentioned before, but they persist. That is still brand new, properties where many builders are still motivated to buy down your mortgage rate to about 5% even 4.75% in some cases, and new builds have low insurance premiums too. And then a fourth opportunity. That's something that we've covered a good bit here these past few weeks. BRRRR, real estate investing, buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. That's a specifically good strategy if you don't have, say, hundreds of 1000s of dollars in liquidity to invest. Now you might ask, do those four strategies have validity? Do they have cogency in today's market, where there are these fears of an economic slowdown. Oh, yes, they do, or I would not have gone over them, but these palpable recession Fears are growing, and some are even asking, is a new Great Depression eminent? There is tons of bad economic news right now, not just in the US, but the global economy is on the edge, starting earlier this month, stock market tremors have turned into full blown convulsions. Trillions of dollars in wealth have just vaporized, wiped out. Investors are rattled, consumers are anxious. Business owners are confused, and those in power in the administration, they insist that tariffs and policy swings are all just part of a transition period, but a transition to what some have even asked, Is the everything bubble finally about to pop. Is this the brink of a recession or something even deeper, a D pressure? Well, one thing is undeniable, from stocks to crypto asset prices recently made a free fall, and I've got some long term lessons for you today, even if you're listening to this years from now, including what a phenomenon like this historically means for the real estate market, it's about what really happens to property values during an economic recession. Stocks recently had their worst week since 2023 barreling toward an all out bear market crash. A bear market means when 20% of the value has been lost from a recent high. Even Bitcoin, the poster child of speculative excess, has cratered. The carnage has been everywhere. But yet, instead of taking steps to prevent an economic meltdown, the administration in power, whether you like them or not, they have introduced more and more radical policies that could accelerate the crisis. Now, some of the tariffs could help long term, but the short term pain is perceptible, and you've got to be able to survive it. We've got new tariffs on multiple countries, and these are our biggest trading partners, even if these import taxes diminish, this is already strained friendships long term, especially with Canada. These countries keep retaliating with tariffs of their own, Canada, Mexico, China and the EU government spending is being slashed. Mass layoffs of federal employees have been underway for a while now. This is not just an economic experiment. I mean, this is a high stakes gamble with global consequences. So is this a detox period, or is it an economic freefall? Treasury Secretary Scott tebescent described this economic shift as a necessary detox period. That's the phrase that he used, and yes, I need to acknowledge there is no more grandma Yellen running the Treasury for long time, listeners, that is a reference to the long running joke about how my late grandmother resembled former Fed chief and former Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, but anyway, according to Besant, the US must break free from what he calls its addiction to government spending in return to private sector growth. Now, hey to me, that sounds good. Actually, that sounds like a good plan for the long term. But here's the problem, that addiction has been the lifeblood of the US economy for decades. And you know, this is something that regular GRE guest macroeconomist Richard Duncan has talked about when he's here. Remember what he's told us for over a decade here on the show, if the US doesn't have 2% real credit growth, credit expansion, well then we go into a recession. Well, what happens when the government cuts spending during soaring consumer prices due to trade wars? What happens when businesses hesitate to invest in the face of extreme uncertainty? Well, the bad news is that tariff whiplash and massive layoffs mean that businesses can't plan, and when businesses can't plan, they freeze. Look, just the other day, I talked to the President of a manufacturing company they make stainless steel tube valves and fittings. Due to all the tariff uncertainty, he's had to set up a reserve account based on what happens next, all right. Well, with that reserve account, that means that that's not money that's going into equipment reinvestment, that's not money that's going into making new hires. What happens when more confidence shatters and markets spiral lower? We may be about to find out. So has the recession, which is a precursor to any depression, already begun? Well, the warning signs are multiplying. Most ominously at last check, the respected Atlanta Fed tracker is now forecasting a more than 2% contraction in US GDP this quarter. That is quite a drawdown and two negative GDP quarters in a row. I mean, that is the definition of what a technical recession is. And here's a quick history piece for you in 1930 to try to quell the effects of the Great Depression, tariffs were passed. Alright. Do you know how badly that turned out back then in 1930 it was called the Smoot Holly Tariff Act. It raised tariffs to try to collect more revenue for the government. It didn't work, and the US sunk deeper into the Great Depression, with rampant unemployment and poverty and social unrest. There was a rise in crime, there were bank failures, even hunger and malnutrition. That's what a depression looks like, right there. Well, back to today. Right now, consumer confidence is collapsing. Retail Sales are plunging. The bond market is signaling distress, and yet those in power appear kind of oblivious to the magnitude of the risk. So what if it's not a transition and it is a start of something far worse? And see, this is just part of what's made investors raise their bets on a recession. Stocks are down like a global trade war has begun. Crypto has fallen like risk appetite has collapsed. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining, and experts have priced in a 52% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. Okay, 52 that's like flipping a coin and just hoping that it lands on good news. Now in the real estate world, when we talk about direct threats from tariffs, as I've touched on before, the biggest direct threats are tariffs on lumber and on gypsum board. The lumber is used in house framing and trusses. Gypsum board, that just means drywall, the base case for tariffs on Canadian lumber alone, that adds about $10,000 to the cost of a new build typical single family home, which in turn jacks up all existing housing prices and their replacement cost. But let's look beyond that now at market factors. How is real estate adversely affected if the economy slows? Though historically. Let's look at how recessions really affect housing prices, and this is, again, as I like to say, where we take history over hunches. It's easy to have a hunch about what you think is going to happen, but let's look at what has really happened. How do real estate prices perform during recessions. When we look at the last eight recessions, okay? And the most current of those was in 2020, and then when we go back eight recessions ago, that is the 1960s Okay. Well, let me move along in chronological order here, during those eight recessions, starting in the 1960s leading up to today, housing prices, and this includes single family homes up to multifamily apartment buildings, they were just rounding to the nearest whole number here, up 5% there in The late 60s, in that recession, and then up 18% up 14% in the next recession, and then no change, down 1% and then up 6% and then down 13% that was during the 18 month recession, around 2008 and then finally, home prices were up 8% in the latest recession, alright. So in our total of eight recessions since the 1960s home prices only fell significantly one time, and they usually rise that one timethey fell. Let's explore that. That was during the 2008 global financial crisis, which involved more than just the recession. It was a deep recession, that's why it's called the Great Recession, but it also involved more than that. 2008 was special because that was a time of housing oversupply and low homeowner equity positions and a complete mortgage meltdown backed by flimsy liar loans. Well today we are in the opposite of all three of those conditions. We have a housing under supply. Americans have a record 300k plus in protective equity that they are not going to walk away from. And more.   Underwriting is stringent, the opposite of a liar loan. So housing prices usually rise in recessions, and if we're teetering on the brink of a recession, there are a lot of reasons to think that housing prices will go up yet again. And by the way, I felt what was happening back in 2008 I invested through it. I think I let you know before that, that's when I owned two four Plex buildings, 2008 but it didn't feel that bad to me, because my properties were temporarily suppressed in value, and that part didn't feel good, but my rents and rental demand went up because no banks would give loans to borrowers to buy properties, so I wouldn't want to sell when the buildings were paying me a higher than ever monthly income. But let's not lose the greater point what I'm telling you here that housing only fell significantly one time through the last eight recessions. That demonstrates the resilience of the housing market. And by the way, those stats were sourced by the NAR and the NB er National Bureau of Economic Research. All right, so why is this? Why is housing resilient in the face of a recession? There are a few reasons, but a main one is see, even if and when times get tough, people still need a place to live, and they will pay for it, especially now, when they have record equity, people are motivated to make mortgage payments and make rent payments, or else they are going to be homeless. So tough times when consumers they get less likely to pay for their car loan are less likely to pay for student loans, and when they default on credit card payments, that's when this stuff happens, but people will fight like heck to avoid losing their home. I mean, people will pay for food, shelter and safety. And also, when it comes to recessions, let's not forget how many bad just God, awful, wrong recession calls there were from over the past two to three years. I mean, the so called experts were wrong, wrong, wrong. Today, the economy is actually starting from a good place. And what do I mean here today, consumers still have money to spend, and they probably will. This is huge, because consumer spending is 70% of the economy, but how will they respond when these higher tariff induced prices hit more shelves at Walmart and Target? We'll see unemployment is still so low that it's practically down there doing squats. But you know these numbers, they're always backward looking, so it does only aim to get worse. The labor market is firm. Interest rates have been pretty steady. They've fallen a little. Energy prices are still down. So really, the bottom line with what I've shown you so far is that federal policies have induced economic trauma, and it does increase the chance of recession over the next 12 months. During recessions, housing is a top performer, and interest rates usually fall as well, and specifically interest rates of all types, including the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates, pretty much every interest rate type, they tend to fall in the mid and late stages of a recession. So this is what you can expect based on history, not hunches. But as for a depression, that is super unlikely. We haven't had one in 90 years, and today. I mean, come on, we have seen what the powers that be do. We can see how they respond to crises. They will just print and print and print more dollars to help pave over any problem. And that's not responsible long term, and it creates more inflation, but that's exactly what the government did to pull us out of the Great Recession and to pull us out of the COVID slowdown. We'll review what you've learned today in just a minute, but let me tell you, though you may very well have the majority of your capital smartly invested in real estate, since that's where the long term wealth creation is, those funds are not very liquid. So what about your liquid funds? Like I pointed out early in the show today, amidst higher inflation expectations, inflation really destroys those in the stock market, and it absolutely crushes savers. Savers really get destroyed, because if your bond yield or your savings account pays you 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation, that is a 125% hidden tax on your gain. And if that's the. Damaging enough there might be tax that you have to pay on that gain, which is not really a gain. This whole thing was a big loss.   So for some people, including me, what I do is become a lend. Lord, yes, I get a higher yield by lending to others a lend. Lord. I mean, why settle for just a, say, four and a half percent yield on your liquid funds? I mean, that's the level at both the 10 year bond and the savings account yield today, about four and a half percent. I've parked my own liquid funds for a steady 8% yield that I've been getting for years with a long time established real estate company. I make the loan to them, they have paid on time, every time, for that steady 8% return. And see, when you understand that directly investing in real estate pays five ways, and that a 20 to 30% total ROI, therefore is common and even expected. You can understand how they can pay you and me an 8% return on your liquid funds. You can see where the arbitrage is. Just a little insider tip here. It's called Freedom family investments. If you want to learn more, text family to 66 866. Their minimums are pretty low to 25k and you don't have to be accredited. So for steady 8% returns from the same place in the same vehicle where I've been getting my 8% you can just do it right now. What's on your mind? Text the word family to 66866.    Let's review what you've learned today, Americans have higher long term inflation expectations than they've had since 1993 a 1999 Taco Bell receipt really brings to light how much inflation you have experienced in your life. Though, higher inflation can come. Hyper inflation is unlikely. Let's not get carried away. The prospects for a recession are 52% in the next 12 months, per a plurality of experts, but a depression is really unlikely. Now you know how real estate performs in recessions and why it holds up so well it even tends to appreciate coming up here on the show are some prominent guests, including the leader of rezzy club. You might know about them. Sometimes I share their great charts in our newsletter. Yes, rezzy Club's Lance Lambert will be with us. Also, Legacy finance expert Laurel Langemeier will be here with us on another upcoming episode. Thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.   Dolf Deroos  37:53   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  38:16   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 6866 while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 6866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com.    

//The Wire//2300Z March 18, 2025////ROUTINE////BLUF: WAR RETURNS TO GAZA AS CEASEFIRE FAILS, ISRAEL CONDUCTS LARGE-SCALE BOMBING IN GAZA. UNITED STATES CONTINUES BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN YEMEN. // -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: The already tenuous ceasefire in Gaza has come to an end, as Israeli forces recommenced their large-scale bombing campaign throughout the Gaza Strip.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - This evening a few thousand pages of documents pertaining to the assassination of John F. Kennedy were released. AC: Many of the files are poor quality scans of copies, or handwritten notes, as is common among decades-old government documents. As such it may take some time for analysis to be conducted to determine if anything new was actually released. Additionally, no further comment has been made regarding the much-hyped Phase 2 release of Epstein documents.At the DoJ, the FBI announced the creation of a new Task Force to investigate the Oct 7th attacks in Israel. This will involve the FBI arranging a team of agents to directly work for Israel's National Bureau of Counter Terror Finance.This afternoon D.C. District Court Judge Theodore Chuang (an Obama appointee) mandated the reinstatement of USAID funding in it's entirety.Nevada: The attacks on parked Tesla vehicles has continued via another arson attack at a service center in Las Vegas shortly before sunrise this morning. Several Teslas were set on fire with improvised incendiary devices while parked in the parking lot of the service center on Badura Avenue.USA: The swatting incidents over the past few days have continued, with an increasing number of pro-Trump social media figures being targeted by malign actors.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: High tensions remain a standard in the Red Sea, as much false information abounds regarding current events. Various Houthi forces claimed to sink an American warship (as they do routinely), which is obviously false. Likewise, other social media accounts attempting to stoke a war with Iran claimed that an Iranian ship called the Zagros was sunk as well. This too is probably false, considering that the Zagros (an intelligence collection ship, the first of it's kind domestically produced by the Iranians) is a newer vessel that was only unveiled two months ago, and therefore might not have entered combat service yet.Analyst: S2A1Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground//END REPORT//

This episode on the pellagra epidemic focuses on its prevalence in the U.S. in the early 20th century. Some of the scientific work done to understand it involves self-experimentation, and some of it is ethically problematic by today’s standards. Research: Akst, Daniel. “Pellagra: The Forgotten Plague.” American Heritage. December 2000. https://www.americanheritage.com/pellagra-forgotten-plague Baird Rattini, Kristin. “A Deadly Diet.” Discover. Mar2018, Vol. 39 Issue 2, p70-72. Bridges, Kenneth. “Pellagra.” Encyclopedia of Arkansas. https://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/entries/pellagra-2230/ Clay, Karen et al. “The Rise and Fall of Pellagra in the American South.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23730. 2018. http://www.nber.org/papers/w23730 Cleveland Clinic. “Pellagra.” 07/18/2022. https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/23905-pellagra Crabb, Mary Katherine. “An Epidemic of Pride: Pellagra and the Culture of the American South.” Anthropologica , 1992, Vol. 34, No. 1 (1992), pp. 89-103. Via JSTOR. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25605634 Flannery, Michael A. “’Frauds,’ ‘Filth Parties,’ ‘Yeast Fads,’ and ‘Black Boxes’: Pellagra and Southern Pride, 1906-2003.” The Southern Quarterly. Vol. 53, no.3/4 (Spring/Summer 2016). Gentilcore, David and Egidio Priani. “Pellagra and Pellagrous Insanity During the Long Nineteenth Century.” Mental Health in Historical Perspective. Palgrave Macmillan. 2023. Ginnaio, Monica. “Pellagra in Late Nineteenth Century Italy: Effects of a Deficiency Disease.” Population-E, 66 (3-4), 2011, 583-610. Hung, Putzer J. “Pellagra: A medical whodunit.” Hektoen International: A Journal of Medical Humanities. https://hekint.org/2018/09/18/pellagra-a-medical-whodunit/ Jaworek, Andrzej K. et al. “The history of pellagra.” Dermatol Rev/Przegl Dermatol 2021, 108, 554–566 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/dr.2021.114610 Kean, Sam. “Joseph Goldberger’s Filth Parties.” Science History Institute Museum and Library. https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/joseph-goldbergers-filth-parties/ Kiple, Kenneth F. and Virginia H. “Black Tongue and Black Men: Pellagra and Slavery in the Antebellum South.” The Journal of Southern History , Aug., 1977, Vol. 43, No. 3. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2207649 Kraut, Alan. “Dr. Joseph Goldberger & the War on Pellagra.” National Institutes of Health Office of NIH History and Stetten Museum. https://history.nih.gov/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=8883184 Marks, Harry M. “Epidemiologists Explain Pellagra: Gender, Race and Political Economy in the Work of Edgar Sydenstricker.” Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences , JANUARY 2003. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24623836 Morabia, Alfredo. “Joseph Goldberger’s research on the prevention of pellagra.” J R Soc Med 2008: 101: 566–568. DOI 10.1258/jrsm.2008.08k010. Park, Youngmee K. et al. “Effectiveness of Food Fortification in the United States: The Case of Pellagra.” American Journal of Public Health. May 2U(H). Vol. 90. No. 5. Peres, Tanya M. “Malnourished.” Gravy. Southern Foodways Alliance. Fall 2016. https://www.southernfoodways.org/malnourished-cultural-ignorance-paved-the-way-for-pellagra/ Pinheiro, Hugo et al. “Hidden Hunger: A Pellagra Case Report.” Cureus vol. 13,4 e14682. 25 Apr. 2021, doi:10.7759/cureus.14682 A. C. Wollenberg. “Pellagra in Italy.” Public Health Reports (1896-1970), vol. 24, no. 30, 1909, pp. 1051–54. JSTOR, https://doi.org/10.2307/4563397. Accessed 13 Feb. 2025. Rajakumar, Kumaravel. “Pellagra in the United States: A Historical Perspective.” SOUTHERN MEDICAL JOURNAL • Vol. 93, No. 3. March 2020. Savvidou, Savvoula. “Pellagra: a non-eradicated old disease.” Clinics and practice vol. 4,1 637. 28 Apr. 2014, doi:10.4081/cp.2014.637 SEARCY GH. AN EPIDEMIC OF ACUTE PELLAGRA. JAMA. 1907;XLIX(1):37–38. doi:10.1001/jama.1907.25320010037002j Skelton, John. “Poverty or Privies? The Pellagra Controversy in America.” Fairmount Folio: Journal of History. Vol. 15 (2014). https://journals.wichita.edu/index.php/ff/article/view/151 Tharian, Bindu. "Pellagra." New Georgia Encyclopedia, 20 September 2004, https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/science-medicine/pellagra/. University Libraries, University of South Carolina. “A Gospel of Health: Hilla Sheriff's Crusade Against Malnutrition in South Carolina.” https://digital.library.sc.edu/exhibits/hillasheriff/history-of-pellagra/ University of Alabama at Birmingham. “Pellagra in Alabama.” https://library.uab.edu/locations/reynolds/collections/regional-history/pellagra Wheeler, G.A. “A Note on the History of Pellagra in the United States.” Public Health Reports (1896-1970) , Sep. 18, 1931, Vol. 46, No. 38. Via JSTOR. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4580180 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A small group of elite universities holds an outsized influence over the field of economics, shaping research, policy, and the broader economic narrative. But is that concentration of power stifling innovation and reinforcing the status quo? This week, Harvard economist David Deming joins Nick and Goldy to discuss his recent Atlantic article, in which he argues that Big Econ functions like a monopoly—limiting competition, excluding diverse perspectives, and making it harder for new ideas to take hold.  David Deming is the Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School. Deming is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and Associate Editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. Social Media: @ProfDavidDeming Further reading: Break Up Big Econ DOGE Is Failing on Its Own Terms David Deming's Substack Forked Lightning The Trouble With Macroeconomics Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer, @civicaction YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Substack: The Pitch

The pellagra epidemic of the early 20th century may have been the deadliest epidemic of a specific nutrient deficiency in U.S. history. Part one covers what it is, its appearance in 19th-century Italy, and the first reports of it in the U.S. Research: Akst, Daniel. “Pellagra: The Forgotten Plague.” American Heritage. December 2000. https://www.americanheritage.com/pellagra-forgotten-plague Baird Rattini, Kristin. “A Deadly Diet.” Discover. Mar2018, Vol. 39 Issue 2, p70-72. Bridges, Kenneth. “Pellagra.” Encyclopedia of Arkansas. https://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/entries/pellagra-2230/ Clay, Karen et al. “The Rise and Fall of Pellagra in the American South.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23730. 2018. http://www.nber.org/papers/w23730 Cleveland Clinic. “Pellagra.” 07/18/2022. https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/23905-pellagra Crabb, Mary Katherine. “An Epidemic of Pride: Pellagra and the Culture of the American South.” Anthropologica , 1992, Vol. 34, No. 1 (1992), pp. 89-103. Via JSTOR. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25605634 Flannery, Michael A. “’Frauds,’ ‘Filth Parties,’ ‘Yeast Fads,’ and ‘Black Boxes’: Pellagra and Southern Pride, 1906-2003.” The Southern Quarterly. Vol. 53, no.3/4 (Spring/Summer 2016). Gentilcore, David and Egidio Priani. “Pellagra and Pellagrous Insanity During the Long Nineteenth Century.” Mental Health in Historical Perspective. Palgrave Macmillan. 2023. Ginnaio, Monica. “Pellagra in Late Nineteenth Century Italy: Effects of a Deficiency Disease.” Population-E, 66 (3-4), 2011, 583-610. Hung, Putzer J. “Pellagra: A medical whodunit.” Hektoen International: A Journal of Medical Humanities. https://hekint.org/2018/09/18/pellagra-a-medical-whodunit/ Jaworek, Andrzej K. et al. “The history of pellagra.” Dermatol Rev/Przegl Dermatol 2021, 108, 554–566 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/dr.2021.114610 Kean, Sam. “Joseph Goldberger’s Filth Parties.” Science History Institute Museum and Library. https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/joseph-goldbergers-filth-parties/ Kiple, Kenneth F. and Virginia H. “Black Tongue and Black Men: Pellagra and Slavery in the Antebellum South.” The Journal of Southern History , Aug., 1977, Vol. 43, No. 3. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2207649 Kraut, Alan. “Dr. Joseph Goldberger & the War on Pellagra.” National Institutes of Health Office of NIH History and Stetten Museum. https://history.nih.gov/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=8883184 Marks, Harry M. “Epidemiologists Explain Pellagra: Gender, Race and Political Economy in the Work of Edgar Sydenstricker.” Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences , JANUARY 2003. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24623836 Morabia, Alfredo. “Joseph Goldberger’s research on the prevention of pellagra.” J R Soc Med 2008: 101: 566–568. DOI 10.1258/jrsm.2008.08k010. Park, Youngmee K. et al. “Effectiveness of Food Fortification in the United States: The Case of Pellagra.” American Journal of Public Health. May 2U(H). Vol. 90. No. 5. Peres, Tanya M. “Malnourished.” Gravy. Southern Foodways Alliance. Fall 2016. https://www.southernfoodways.org/malnourished-cultural-ignorance-paved-the-way-for-pellagra/ Pinheiro, Hugo et al. “Hidden Hunger: A Pellagra Case Report.” Cureus vol. 13,4 e14682. 25 Apr. 2021, doi:10.7759/cureus.14682 A. C. Wollenberg. “Pellagra in Italy.” Public Health Reports (1896-1970), vol. 24, no. 30, 1909, pp. 1051–54. JSTOR, https://doi.org/10.2307/4563397. Accessed 13 Feb. 2025. Rajakumar, Kumaravel. “Pellagra in the United States: A Historical Perspective.” SOUTHERN MEDICAL JOURNAL • Vol. 93, No. 3. March 2020. Savvidou, Savvoula. “Pellagra: a non-eradicated old disease.” Clinics and practice vol. 4,1 637. 28 Apr. 2014, doi:10.4081/cp.2014.637 SEARCY GH. AN EPIDEMIC OF ACUTE PELLAGRA. JAMA. 1907;XLIX(1):37–38. doi:10.1001/jama.1907.25320010037002j Skelton, John. “Poverty or Privies? The Pellagra Controversy in America.” Fairmount Folio: Journal of History. Vol. 15 (2014). https://journals.wichita.edu/index.php/ff/article/view/151 Tharian, Bindu. "Pellagra." New Georgia Encyclopedia, 20 September 2004, https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/science-medicine/pellagra/. University Libraries, University of South Carolina. “A Gospel of Health: Hilla Sheriff's Crusade Against Malnutrition in South Carolina.” https://digital.library.sc.edu/exhibits/hillasheriff/history-of-pellagra/ University of Alabama at Birmingham. “Pellagra in Alabama.” https://library.uab.edu/locations/reynolds/collections/regional-history/pellagra Wheeler, G.A. “A Note on the History of Pellagra in the United States.” Public Health Reports (1896-1970) , Sep. 18, 1931, Vol. 46, No. 38. Via JSTOR. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4580180 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.