Podcasts about overconfidence

Know your prize (what you want).Then know the price (what's needed to get what you want) and pay it.

You start with intention. Because it's your intention that's going to lead to attention that's going to lead to creation.

Your feelings don't matter, just freaking show up!

You don't need evidence. The only thing you need is the urge, the eagerness, the will to do it.

Smart investors still make expensive mistakes, and surprisingly often, the problem begins inside their own heads.   We like to believe that our investment decisions are based on facts, careful analysis and rational judgment. Yet cognitive biases quietly shape which facts we notice, which risks we dismiss and which stories we choose to believe.   They encourage property investors to follow the crowd, cling to underperforming assets, chase yesterday's winning markets and become more confident precisely when they should be more cautious.   Louise Bedford – "The Money Chick" recently interviewed me about the psychology behind these decisions and the cognitive biases that quietly influence property and share-market investment decisions.   We examine how confirmation bias encourages investors to seek supporting evidence while ignoring information that challenges their preferred conclusions.   I explain why sunk cost fallacy can keep people holding underperforming properties instead of recognising their opportunity cost.   Louise and I explore how loss aversion, recency bias and anchoring can distort decisions during market uncertainty and changing property cycles.   We discuss practical ways to improve investment judgement, including using strategic plans, seeking disconfirming evidence and inviting experienced people to challenge your thinking.   Takeaways   • Cognitive shortcuts can distort otherwise intelligent investment decisions • Confirmation bias makes selective research feel genuinely rational • Strategic property plans reduce emotionally driven investment commitments • Sunk costs can prolong ownership of poor-quality assets • Small losses may become much larger financial mistakes • Quality properties deserve patience through normal market cycles • Poor assets turn patience into expensive denial • Recent market trends rarely predict permanent future conditions • Leading fundamentals matter more than short-term property headlines • Independent advisers can expose blind spots before costly decisions   Chapters   • 02:44 - Why intelligence cannot prevent investment bias • 03:34 - Confirmation bias and selective property evidence • 12:19 - Distinguishing patience from investment denial • 17:06 - How recency bias distorts market expectations • 25:26 - Overconfidence, humility and disciplined investing   Links and Resources:   Answer this week's trivia question here - www.PropertyTrivia.com.au ·        Win a hard copy of Negotiate Influence Persuade. ·        Everyone wins a copy of a fully updated property report   Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here   Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property plan. Click here and have a chat with us.   Louise Bedford – The Money Chick https://www.tradinggame.com.au/about-us/louise-bedford/   Talking Trading Louise's podcasthttps://www.tradinggame.com.au/why-choose-us/in-the-press/   Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au      Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.   About The Michael Yardney Podcast | Property Investment And Wealth Creation  Australia   The Michael Yardney Podcast is one of Australia's leading property investment podcasts, helping investors understand the Australian property market and build long-term wealth through strategic property investing.   Each week we explore: • Australian property market updates• Property investment strategies in Australia• Melbourne property market trends• Sydney property market forecasts• Brisbane property investment opportunities• Capital growth property strategies• Property cycles in Australia• Negative gearing and tax strategy• Interest rates and their impact on property• Buyer's agent insights and investment planning   If you're serious about building a high-performance property portfolio and creating financial freedom through real estate, this podcast will give you the clarity and strategy you need.   Learn more at:https://propertyupdate.com.auhttps://metropole.com.au

Do you know anyone who is more confident in their own abilities than their actual performance suggests they should be? Perhaps they think they are an incredible singer, but they're actually tone-deaf. Most people believe that they are more intelligent and skilful than the average person, according to a 2020 meta-analysis by Zell and colleagues. Obviously, this cannot be the case. Overconfidence has a cost – it can lead to things like poor financial decisions and dangerous driving. So why do we have such a tendency to overestimate our abilities?你认识的人中是否有人对自己的能力比实际表现更自信？ 也许他们认为自己是一位令人难以置信的歌手，但实际上他们是五音不全的。 根据 Zell 及其同事 2020 年的荟萃分析，大多数人认为自己比普通人更聪明、更有技巧。 显然，事实并非如此。 过度自信是有代价的——它可能导致糟糕的财务决策和危险驾驶等问题。 那么为什么我们会倾向于高估自己的能力呢？Excessive self-belief requires self-deception – believing your own falsehoods. An evolutionary perspective argues that humans evolved self-deception so that we could deceive others more easily. The theory goes that if you believe your own lies about your abilities, you're less likely to display behaviours which will give it away, such as nervousness or hesitation. Deceiving others about your abilities may enable you to open doors, but it is when you have to prove yourself that overconfidence can lead to costly mistakes. For those who have a greater underlying ability, though, overconfidence can be highly beneficial.过度自信需要自我欺骗——相信自己的谎言。 进化论认为，人类进化出自欺欺人的能力，这样我们就可以更容易地欺骗别人。 该理论认为，如果你相信自己对自己能力的谎言，你就不太可能表现出会泄露谎言的行为，例如紧张或犹豫。 欺骗别人你的能力可能会让你打开大门，但当你必须证明自己时，过度自信可能会导致代价高昂的错误。 然而，对于那些具有更强潜在能力的人来说，过度自信可能非常有益。This is what researchers are calling the 'peacock's tail for people'. Peacocks have long and brightly coloured feathers to attract females, but they are extremely burdensome. The feathers are heavy and highly visible to predators, so only the healthiest peacocks can afford to carry such elaborate plumage. In other words, their feathers are a reliable indicator of their suitability for potential mates. Authors of a 2026 study, published in the Psychological Review compare this phenomenon with human overconfidence. They argue that only the most capable people can keep a high self-belief without suffering severe consequences. In other words, overconfidence may actually be a useful signal of ability.这就是研究人员所说的“人类的孔雀尾巴”。 孔雀有长而鲜艳的羽毛来吸引雌性，但它们却极其沉重。 羽毛很重，对捕食者来说非常明显，因此只有最健康的孔雀才能携带如此精致的羽毛。 换句话说，它们的羽毛是它们是否适合潜在配偶的可靠指标。 发表在《心理评论》上的 2026 年研究的作者将这种现象与人类的过度自信进行了比较。 他们认为，只有最有能力的人才能保持高度的自信，而不会遭受严重的后果。 换句话说，过度自信实际上可能是一种有用的能力信号。So, what lessons can be learnt from all this? If you have a high ability in a particular skill, make sure you have the confidence to match it. Ability can bring success, but remember, it is confidence which opens the doors in the first place.那么，我们可以从这一切中吸取什么教训呢？ 如果您在某项特定技能上拥有很高的能力，请确保您有信心与之相匹配。 能力可以带来成功，但请记住，首先打开大门的是信心。

Because no one's POV is more valid than yours!

Every successful persons had goals and have goals. As an overconfident person, you need to have goals.

Don't be a local champion, rate your goals on a global scale.

If you're scared of failure then you're scared of success. You can't do without it, it's part of the process.

Do the hard things first. When you do hard things first the other things become very easy.Great things don't come easily.

You have to do the work. Your potential won't get you anywhere.

If in 10 years your kids were to write in their yearbooks who their role model is, would it be you? What would they write about you? Or would it be Elon Musk or Otedola just like you?

You think you have time. You don't! The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now. Lock in on a goal for just one week and see how it'll play out for you.

When you believe something positive will happen, you move differently; in a positive way.. and God, the world, nature will confirm it to you.

You have to see all your problems as gifts.

Do more. Because if there's more, we have to get more.

As an overconfident person that's what we do. We don't wait until we achieve the goal before we start moving like we've achieved the goal.

How reliable is your judgement in rope? Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts that help us process information quickly, but they can also lead to predictable errors in how we interpret situations and make decisions. In this episode, Fox and Mya explore how these biases can affect our rope practice, relationships, learning and assessment of risk. They discuss: • Anchoring bias and how first impressions can shape everything that follows • Overconfidence bias and its relationship with the Dunning–Kruger effect • Hindsight bias and the temptation to believe an outcome was obvious all along • The sunk cost fallacy and why previous investment can make it difficult to stop • Outcome bias and the danger of judging a decision only by how it turned out • Self-serving bias and how we explain our successes and failures • Why simply recognizing that these biases exist can help • Situations in which you may not want to rely entirely on your own judgement • A framework for considering whether the causes of an outcome are internal or external, stable or changeable, and within or outside your control Whether you are a top, bottom, switch, educator or organizer, understanding the limits of your own thinking can help you make more deliberate decisions and respond to mistakes with greater clarity.

If you're not growing, you're dying. If you don't choose, automatically, life will hand you what you don't want.

You're overconfident already, you're just doing it in the wrong things. Use it right and see what difference it makes in your life.

Please, just start!

Dave reflects on the bummer that is Watkins ACL injury - and cheers up the fans with Kendrick Perkins declaration that the Wizards have the 5th best team in the east. @Davidasherlevy Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

No matter what life throws at you, know that they're the building blocks to your success.

As an overconfident person, you need to know how to not only speak but articulate your thoughts.

Enough is never enough.If you want a lot, you have to give a lot.

Confidence can be a blessing when it is rooted in God, but it becomes dangerous when it turns into self-confidence that leaves God out. In today's episode, we explore how prosperity, success, and even spiritual victories can quietly lead us to depend on ourselves instead of the Lord. Through the warnings found in Psalm 30, Deuteronomy 8, and Hebrews 13, we'll discover how to remain humble, grateful, and faithful no matter how well life seems to be going.

What about what you think of them? The question shouldn't be "Am I worthy of it?" It should be "Do I want it?"

What Jared Shared From His Book, “EVERYDAY GOLF PSYCHOLOGY” 1. Emotions aren't random—they're signals • Anger, fear, embarrassment, overconfidence… none of these are “mental weaknesses.” • They're outputs of something deeper: expectations, flawed goals, poor preparation, or misjudged skill. • Trying to “stay calm” without understanding why you're upset is like trying to fix a slice by adjusting your grip every hole. 2. Overconfidence is a silent killer Most golfers don't realize they're overconfident until they're already playing poorly. Overconfidence often comes from: • A few good practice sessions • A hot streak on the range • Misjudging actual skill level • Tournament performance exposes the truth: practice success ≠ competitive readiness. 3. Fear of embarrassment is more common than fear of failure Recreational golfers especially worry about: • Looking stupid • Holding up the group • Hitting a bad shot in front of others This creates tension, rushed routines, and poor decision-making. Focus: The Real Engine of Performance 4. Focus is driven by goals, not discipline Jared was adamant: “Focus isn't something you do—it's something your goals create.” If your goals are vague (“play well today”), your focus will be vague. Clear goals = clear attention. 5. Phones destroy focus more than people admit • Even checking your phone between shots fractures your mental rhythm. • The brain doesn't fully “return” to golf for several minutes. • Recreational golfers underestimate how much this matters. Accessing Information During Shots 6. Great players access more detail, not less They see: • Wind patterns • Lies • Shot windows • Tendencies • Emotional state Most amateurs try to “simplify” too much and end up ignoring critical data. Bridging Practice → Competition 7. Practice must simulate pressure Otherwise: • You build skills you can't access under stress. • You create false confidence. • You never learn how your emotions behave in competition. Jared's strategies included: • Adding consequences to practice • Tracking emotional patterns • Practicing decision-making, not just mechanics • Using post‑shot evaluations to build awareness Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's not just about you, it's to give other people permission too. Someone won't reach where they're supposed to reach if you don't reach where you're supposed to reach.

Aktienkauf per Wischgeste, ETF-Sparpläne im Abo und Millionen neue Privatanleger am Kapitalmarkt: Die Digitalisierung hat den Zugang zur Börse in den letzten fünf Jahren radikal demokratisiert. Doch was passiert, wenn die Märkte mal nicht von Rekord zu Rekord eilen? Und warum ist der Ort, an dem eine Order ausgeführt wird, für den finanziellen Erfolg oft wichtiger als das Design der Trading-App?In dieser Folge von How to Hack trifft Host Carsten Puschmann auf Dennis Puschmann, Direktor bei der Trade Gate AG und verantwortlich für den Direkt-Broker tradegate.direct. Ein echter Puschmann-Talk über die Zukunft des Brokerage-Marktes, die Entzauberung von Übersimplifizierung und die Frage, warum echte Kontrolle über das eigene Portfolio nicht unterkomplex sein darf.Dennis Puschmann erklärt, wie die Tradegate BSX mit null Euro Börsengebühren den deutschen Retail-Markt transformiert hat: Heute wird ein Großteil des Aktien- und ETF-Handelsvolumens privater Anleger, das an regulierten Börsen in Deutschland gehandelt wird, an der Tradegate BSX ausgeführt.Ein Gespräch über das schmale Brett zwischen Trading und Investment, vorausschauendes Risikomanagement unter Stress und den fundamentalen Unterschied zwischen einem Spiel und echtem Vermögensaufbau.Wir reden über:

"In this X post, I said I don't know the consequences of BIP-110. Plenty of people called that incompetent, cowardly, or both. Others praised it as humility. It's neither. It's just true. I don't know the consequences, and here's my claim. Neither do you." ~ Jimmy Song I am reading Jimmy Song's latest piece and things get a bit heated today. The debate around BIP-110 has everyone absolutely certain they know what will happen to Bitcoin. But as Jimmy points out, they don't. And honestly, neither do I. Do we really understand the social consequences of these network changes? Check out the original article: On Overconfidence by Jimmy Song (Link: https://x.com/jimmysong/status/2071637370881941750) Host Links ⁠⁠Guy on Nostr ⁠(Link: http://tinyurl.com/2xc96ney) Guy on X ⁠(Link: https://twitter.com/theguyswann) Guy on Instagram (Link: https://www.instagram.com/theguyswann) Guy on TikTok (Link: https://www.tiktok.com/@theguyswann) Guy's Takes on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@GuysTake) Guy Swann on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@theguyswann) Bitcoin Audible on X⁠ (Link: https://twitter.com/BitcoinAudible) The Guy Swann Network Broadcast Room on Keet (Link: https://tinyurl.com/3na6v839) Check out our awesome partners! Become sovereign, hold your keys, be censorship resistant with the Bitbox hardware wallet. Get 5% off everything in the store with code GUY (Link: https://bitbox.swiss/guy) Get ⁠10% off the COLDCARD⁠ with code BITCOINAUDIBLE ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠(Link: https://bitcoinaudible.com/coldcard) Get 10% off the best Bitcoin board game in the world, HODLUP! Or any of the other great games from The Free Market Kids! Use code GUY10 at checkout for 10% off your cart! (Link: https://www.freemarketkids.com/collections/games-1) "Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

Have you ever had a single win that completely changed how you looked at yourself? In this episode, Gino Barbaro (co-founder of Jake and Gino and Barbaro 360) breaks down the subconscious psychological traps that sabotage real estate investors and entrepreneurs from building a successful business. Drawing from his early investing days—including a first deal that felt like a home run but was fueled by pure luck—Gino highlights three destructive behaviors we all face and provides a concrete, 4-step framework to fight back against them.

Enjoy the process it takes to happen.

You've been clapping for people, when are they going to clap for you?

DAY 4: Self doubt is as valid as self belief.OVERCONFIDENCE 101They are both sides of a coin, so if one side exits, the other side exists.So stop focusing on the side you don't want.Stop acting kind God glued you to tails, you can just flip it to heads. One step a time.

I've dined with Steve Jobs, gotten drunk with Phil Knight, followed GaryVee to a speech, been to the Ashram with Jay Shetty, swam with Dolphins in Mauritius alongside Robin Sharma all because I read books

Contact Scott from Bonsai MatsuIn order to make or develop beautiful bonsai, you must be able to work at both a macro or big picture level as well as at the micro level which deals with the branch that you're looking at right now. It is easy to become distracted by the future and miss the opportunity to work in the now for your tree. I also think bonsai confidence and bonsai overconfidence need to be managed. A lack of confidence means nothing happens, overconfidence means something bad may happen! How do we fix that? Have a listen and I'l see if I can help.Support the showBecome a podcast supporter and show the Bonsai Love (it's really appreciated) ❤️https://www.buzzsprout.com/263290/supportWhere to find Bonsai Matsu:InstagramFacebookYouTube Web

This episode is about stopping the obsession with finding your purpose.Before you figure out where you're going, make sure you're no longer heading where you don't want to be.

This episode is about realizing that the people you admire aren't special, they simply did the work.If anybody can do it, you can too. The question is: are you willing to do what they did to get there?

Send us Fan MailMore information does not produce better decisions. This episode of Thinking 2 Think makes the case that data overload -- not data scarcity -- is the real leadership crisis of 2026. Executive Director and author M.A. Aponte draws on his experience in charter school leadership, Wall Street, and law enforcement to break down exactly how cognitive bias corrupts data interpretation and what the most effective leaders do differently when the signals are unclear. What You Will Learn:•         The critical difference between signal vs. noise in organizational data•         Why confirmation bias, availability bias, anchoring bias, and overconfidence are the four most dangerous cognitive biases in leadership decision making•         What Bayesian thinking actually means for leaders -- without the statistics•         How to apply the Three-Gate Signal Filter before drawing any conclusion from ambiguous data•         A real case study of an organization that confused noise for signal -- and built a strategic plan around the wrong conclusion Q&A: What This Episode AnswersQ: What is the difference between signal and noise in leadership data?A: Signal is data that meaningfully changes a decision. Noise is everything else. The same data point can be signal through one lens and noise through another -- depending entirely on the decision you are trying to make. Most leaders skip defining the decision first. That is how they end up treating noise like signal. Q: How do cognitive biases affect leadership decisions?A: Four biases are most damaging: Confirmation bias leads you to favor data that confirms what you already believe. Availability bias overweights recent, vivid events over slow-building trends. Anchoring bias locks you to the first number you see. Overconfidence bias makes leaders express ninety percent certainty on sixty-five percent evidence. Each of these is documented, measurable, and correctable -- but only if you know which one is running. Q: What is Bayesian thinking for leaders?A: Bayesian thinking means your confidence in any conclusion should be proportional to the quality and quantity of your evidence -- and should update continuously as new evidence arrives. In practice, it means defining in advance what would cause you to change your mind. That single discipline protects against confirmation bias after the fact. The Three-Gate Signal Filter (from this episode):•         Gate One: What specific decision does this data inform?•         Gate Two: What is the base rate -- what would I expect without any intervention?•         Gate Three: What evidence would cause me to revise this conclusion? Resources and Related Episodes:•         Subscribe to The Logical Mind newsletter at maaponte.substack.com•         Thinking 2 Think podcast: pod.link/1531984919•         Companion Substack post: The Three-Gate Signal Filter ExplainedSupport the showJoin My Substack for more content: maaponte.substack.comConsulting/Advisory Services: MAAponte.comProfessional LinkedIn Page: www.linkedin.com/in/maaponteFinancial Budget/Wealth Management app (FREE): https://centsora.com/CHECK OUT OUR NEW CRITICAL THINKING GAME APP! Currently in BETA: Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.base692af669b00f0dc8d8ad6653.appWeb: https://play.google.com/apps/testing/com.base692af669b00f0dc8d8ad6653.app*Coming soon to Apple Store

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Target's decline: A conversation on leadership drift, relationship capital, employee experience, and the warning signs that a brand is losing customer trust. Summary: In this episode, Denise Thompson and John DiJulius unpack why Target's recent struggles are bigger than retail headlines. John argues that what happened at Target is not mainly about controversy or pricing. It is about leadership, culture, diluted brand clarity, and a declining frontline experience. The conversation explores how great brands build relationship capital, why employee experience always shows up in customer experience, why discounts cannot repair emotional trust, and what leaders should monitor before decline becomes visible in revenue. Key Takeaways: Target's problem is deeper than headlines. John frames it as a leadership and culture issue, not just a retail or controversy issue. Relationship capital takes years to build and can be drained by inconsistency. Customers give trusted brands grace at first, but repeated poor experiences change the story. Frontline is the bottom line. Investment in customer-facing employees matters more than most executive teams act like it does. EX = CX. Employee experience will always show up in the customer experience. Operational training is not enough. Great brands also teach service aptitude: listening, empathy, rapport, recovery, and standards that are actionable and observable. Price cuts are a bandage, not a cure. Promotions may create short-term movement, but they do not rebuild emotional trust. Leaders need better early warning signals. Complaints, repeat visits, referrals, average ticket, and customer count tell a truer story than vanity metrics alone. Links: The DiJulius Group Methdology: https://thedijuliusgroup.com/x-commandment-methodology/ Company Service Aptitude Test:  https://thedijuliusgroup.com/c-sat-forms/individual-c-sat/ Schedule a Complimentary Call with one of our advisors:  tdg.click/claudia Ask John!  Submit your questions for John, to be aired on future episode:  tdg.click/ask Customer Experience Executive Academy: https://thedijuliusgroup.com/project/cx-executive-academy/ Experience Revolution Membership:  https://thedijuliusgroup.com/membership/ Books:  https://thedijuliusgroup.com/shop/ Contacts:  Lindsey@thedijuliusgroup.com , Claudia@thedijuliusgroup.com If you want to learn how world-class organizations build cultures customers cannot live without, explore The Experience Revolution Membership. Inside the membership you'll gain access to livestream workshops, practical frameworks, and proven strategies used by organizations around the world. Learn more at https://thedijuliusgroup.com/membership/ Chapters: 00:00 Introduction to Customer Service Revolution Podcast 01:10 Personal Activities and Springtime Outdoors 02:41 Target's Story: Beyond Retail to Leadership 03:36 Starbucks and Brand Transition Strategies 04:14 Target's Loyalty and Experience Challenges 04:57 What Made Target a Favorite Brand 05:43 When Did Target Start to Lose Its Edge? 06:52 The Power of Brand Clarity and Leadership Vision 07:16 Amazon's Customer-Centric Model as a Benchmark 08:21 Target's Identity Crisis and Political Stances 09:31 The Risks of Taking Political or Social Stances 10:52 Overconfidence and Rapid Growth Risks 14:30 The Lag Effect in Customer Experience 16:31 Target's Cost-Cutting and Culture Impact 18:56 Genuine Frontline Investment in Training 22:29 Turning Employee Culture into Customer Experience 24:19 Employees' Belief in the Brand and Customer Perception 27:31 Target's Discount Strategies and Emotional Connection 29:54 The Dangers of Conditional Brand Commitments 32:08 The Relationship Economy and Loyalty Building 33:02 Starting Small to Improve Customer Relationships 34:53 Early Warning Signs for Organizational Culture Issues 38:25 Questions for Leadership and Brand Clarity 42:01 Revisiting Leadership Mindset and Organizational Culture Subscribe We talk about topics like this each week; be sure to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts so you don't miss an episode.

Nate Amidon: When Overconfidence Breaks the Trust You Worked So Hard to Build Read the full Show Notes and search through the world's largest audio library on Agile and Scrum directly on the Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast website: http://bit.ly/SMTP_ShowNotes.   "I had built up the trust quotient, but then I didn't think about continually maintaining it." - Nate Amidon   Nate had done everything right. As a junior Scrum Master on an internal software team, he started by building trust — showing up, listening, and letting the team know he wasn't going to make things worse. He even managed to shift their reporting metrics from velocity to predictability, a move the team embraced because it focused on what they could actually control: how well they broke down and executed their plan. But then came the overconfidence. Riding on the capital he'd built, Nate proactively designed a "sprint churn" metric to track how much work swapped in and out of a sprint. The idea wasn't bad — but he rolled it out without consulting the team first. The pushback hit hard. Engineers pushed back: adding more work mid-sprint shouldn't automatically be negative, they argued. And they were right. The real failure wasn't the metric itself — it was bypassing the collaborative process that had earned him trust in the first place. Nate learned that trust isn't something you build once and bank on. It's an everyday job. As he puts it, the Scrum Master's role is to help the team, not direct it — and the moment you start solving problems the team hasn't agreed exist, you're directing.   In this episode, we also refer to Nate's previous BONUS episode on the podcast, where he discussed the brief-execute-debrief cycle from military aviation.   Self-reflection Question: When was the last time you introduced a change to your team without first checking if they saw the same problem you did — and what happened to your trust quotient as a result?   [The Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast Recommends]

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on X.Episode TimeStamps: 01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for changeCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

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We asked ChatGPT to pick the 10 most insightful sports betting questions, and in this Q&A, experts Rob Pizzola and Isaac Rose-Berman break them all down. From bankroll management to understanding edge, market selection, and how sharp bettors think, this episode is packed with practical insights to help you make smarter betting decisions. Whether you're new to sports betting or looking to refine your approach, this discussion shows what it really takes to improve your process and think like a pro. Watch, learn, and let us know in the comments which insights surprised you the most. Subscribe for more expert Q&A episodes, strategy breakdowns, and sports betting analysis right here on Circles Off from The Hammer Betting Network.

Episode Summary Building wealth isn't just about choosing the right investment—it's about having the right framework for decision-making. In this episode, Gary Pinkerton and Jaden Zubal explore the financial operating system that helps investors align their money with their goals, avoid common cognitive biases, and build wealth with greater clarity and control. They dive into the Hierarchy of Wealth, a framework that balances control and risk across different asset types. By understanding how assets fit within this hierarchy—from highly controlled assets like cash and insurance to more speculative investments—investors can build a financial structure designed to last for decades. The conversation also addresses a surprising truth: even smart, educated people make poor financial decisions. Cognitive biases, social pressure, and increasingly AI-driven information can push investors toward choices that feel good in the moment but undermine long-term goals. By applying the 4-3-2-1 framework, investors can filter decisions through purpose, strategy, and systems thinking—creating a financial life that supports both security and freedom. Links & Resources Connect with Gary Pinkerton https://www.paradigmlife.net/  gpinkerton@paradigmlife.net https://garypinkerton.com/  https://clientportal.paradigmlife.net/WealthView360  Jaden is a colleague and fellow Wealth Strategist at Paradigm Life.  Find out more at: Jaden Zubal - Paradigm Life Home | Jaden Zubal jzubal@paradigmlife.net Keywords Financial framework Hierarchy of wealth Financial decision making Wealth strategy Passive income Real estate investing Financial independence Systems thinking Cognitive bias AI and investing Wealth building strategy Financial planning frameworks Purpose-driven wealth Asset allocation strategy Risk vs control investing Episode Highlights 00:32:39–33:02 - Frameworks help investors filter opportunities and avoid distractions 33:02–34:47 - Why financial advisors and clients often have conflicting goals 34:47–35:26 - The concept behind the "Die With Zero" philosophy 35:26–36:05 - The uncertainty of lifespan and why retirement planning is complex 36:05–36:31 - Introducing the Hierarchy of Wealth framework 36:31–37:15 - Why frameworks guide decisions but don't make decisions 37:15–38:12 - Control vs risk as the foundation of the hierarchy 38:12–39:08 - Using the framework to evaluate financial decisions 39:08–39:54 - Ideal allocations across different wealth tiers 39:54–40:34 - Direct ownership vs passive investments 40:34–41:11 - How the same asset can fall into different tiers 41:11–41:56 - Why direct real estate ownership offers greater control 41:56–42:46 - Real estate as a long-term wealth protection strategy 42:46–43:42 - Leveraging professionals and advisors when entering real estate 43:42–44:42 - Comparing wealth allocation strategies with family offices and institutions 44:42–45:46 - How banks structure assets and liquidity 45:46–46:23 - Why intelligent people still make poor financial decisions 46:23–47:17 - Cognitive bias and the role of AI in modern decision making 47:17–48:49 - How AI can reinforce personal bias 48:49–49:52 - Awareness of bias as the first step to avoiding mistakes 49:52–50:28 - Status quo bias and why people rarely adjust retirement accounts 50:28–51:13 - Overconfidence and its impact on investing 51:13–52:11 - Systems thinking and using the 4-3-2-1 framework to guide decisions

March Madness is one of our favorite times of the year! Therefore, we've put together a list of the 16 worst money habits, in a "Salty-16" to see which habit wins as the worst habit. LEFT REGION: Everyday & Emotional   B1  ·  EVERYDAY MONEY LEAKS 1  Daily impulse spending  vs. 16  Forgotten subscriptions  People instantly relate.   B2  ·  EMOTIONAL SPENDING 8  Stress shopping  vs. 9  Rewarding yourself every hardship When does self-care become self-sabotage?   B3  ·  AVOIDANCE HABITS 5  Not checking your bank account vs. 12  Ignoring CC statements  "Avoidance charges interest."   B4  ·  LIFESTYLE INFLATION 4  Upgrading lifestyle after every raise vs. 13  Financing things to feel successful  The dark horse of the left region.     RIGHT REGION: Debt & Budget   B5  ·  DEBT BEHAVIOR 5  Paying only minimum payments  vs. 12  Saying "I'll deal with debt later" Minimums feel like progress. They're not.   B6  ·  SOCIAL PRESSURE HABITS 4  Spending to keep up w/ friends  vs. 13  Saying yes to every event broke FOMO is an expensive habit.   B7  ·  BUDGET SABOTAGE 6  Guessing instead of tracking vs. 11  Starting budgets, quit after 5 days  The Cinderella pick. Could go all the way.   B8  ·  FALSE CONFIDENCE HABITS 3  High income solves everything  vs. 14  One good month = problem solved Overconfidence is a budget's worst enemy.   Highlighted row = analyst's pick to advance Who do you think will win?  Who is your darkhorse, your Cinderella? Let us know if you enjoy this episode and, if so, please share it with your friends! Or, you can support the show by visiting our Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/crushingDebt   To contact George Curbelo, you can email him at GCFinancialCoach21@gmail.com or follow his Tiktok channel - https://www.tiktok.com/@curbelofinancialcoach  To contact Shawn Yesner, you can email him at Shawn@Yesnerlaw.com or visit www.YesnerLaw.com. And please consider a donation to Pancreatic Cancer research and education by joining Shawn's team at MY Legacy Striders: http://support.pancan.org/goto/MyLegacy2026