Podcasts about overconfidence

Wir glauben, rational zu handeln – besonders beim Geld. Doch die Realität sieht anders aus: Unsere Finanzentscheidungen werden viel stärker von Emotionen, Denkfehlern und unbewussten Mustern beeinflusst, als uns lieb ist. Genau darum geht es in dieser Folge. Wir sprechen über Behavioral Finance – also die Psychologie hinter finanziellen Entscheidungen – und warum laut vielen Experten bis zu 95 % unseres finanziellen Erfolgs im Kopf entstehen. Warum halten Menschen an Verlusten fest? Weshalb überschätzen wir regelmäßig unsere Fähigkeiten? Warum springen so viele auf Hypes auf, nur weil „alle anderen“ dabei sind? Und weshalb löst FOMO oft schlechtere Entscheidungen aus als fehlendes Wissen? In dieser Folge schauen wir uns die größten psychologischen Fallen an: Verlustaversion, Overconfidence, Herdentrieb, Ankereffekt und Fear of Missing Out – verständlich erklärt und mit direktem Bezug zu echten Finanzentscheidungen. Eine Folge für alle, die Geld nicht nur verstehen, sondern ihr eigenes Verhalten endlich durchschauen wollen. Enjoy! --- --- --- Hallo und herzlich willkommen bei financial health, dem Podcast mit spannenden Inspirationen zu deinem privaten Finanzmanagement. Du bist neugierig? Hier findest du mehr noch über uns: - Instagram: www.instagram.com/financial.health.podcast - E-mail: team@financial-health.de - Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/julian-krüger-25358b204 - Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/amelie-lider-a97960208 - Xing: www.xing.com/profile/Julian_Krueger2 - Xing: www.xing.com/profile/Amelie_Lider - Instagram: www.instagram.com/julian.krueger.global - Instagram: www.instagram.com/amelie_lider - Audioschnitt: kontakt@mirja-mader.de Bei Fragen, Wünschen und Anregungen nehmen wir uns gerne Zeit für dich. Komm einfach auf uns zu. Wenn dir diese Folge gefallen hat, dann freuen wir uns, wenn du den Podcast abonnierst und eine Rezension auf iTunes hinterlässt. Damit hilfst du uns, dass noch mehr Menschen diesen Podcast finden und das Thema Finanzen eine positive Kraft in ihrem Leben wird. Viel Spaß & Erfolg beim Hören und Umsetzen der heutigen Folge wünschen dir Amelie & Julian. Die Inhalte dienen inspirativen Zwecken und ersetzen keine individuelle, professionelle Finanzberatung. Die Speaker übernehmen keine Haftung. ___________________ Mit ♥ produziert von Mirja Mader & beraten von uncover

Target's decline: A conversation on leadership drift, relationship capital, employee experience, and the warning signs that a brand is losing customer trust. Summary: In this episode, Denise Thompson and John DiJulius unpack why Target's recent struggles are bigger than retail headlines. John argues that what happened at Target is not mainly about controversy or pricing. It is about leadership, culture, diluted brand clarity, and a declining frontline experience. The conversation explores how great brands build relationship capital, why employee experience always shows up in customer experience, why discounts cannot repair emotional trust, and what leaders should monitor before decline becomes visible in revenue. Key Takeaways: Target's problem is deeper than headlines. John frames it as a leadership and culture issue, not just a retail or controversy issue. Relationship capital takes years to build and can be drained by inconsistency. Customers give trusted brands grace at first, but repeated poor experiences change the story. Frontline is the bottom line. Investment in customer-facing employees matters more than most executive teams act like it does. EX = CX. Employee experience will always show up in the customer experience. Operational training is not enough. Great brands also teach service aptitude: listening, empathy, rapport, recovery, and standards that are actionable and observable. Price cuts are a bandage, not a cure. Promotions may create short-term movement, but they do not rebuild emotional trust. Leaders need better early warning signals. Complaints, repeat visits, referrals, average ticket, and customer count tell a truer story than vanity metrics alone. Links: The DiJulius Group Methdology: https://thedijuliusgroup.com/x-commandment-methodology/ Company Service Aptitude Test:  https://thedijuliusgroup.com/c-sat-forms/individual-c-sat/ Schedule a Complimentary Call with one of our advisors:  tdg.click/claudia Ask John!  Submit your questions for John, to be aired on future episode:  tdg.click/ask Customer Experience Executive Academy: https://thedijuliusgroup.com/project/cx-executive-academy/ Experience Revolution Membership:  https://thedijuliusgroup.com/membership/ Books:  https://thedijuliusgroup.com/shop/ Contacts:  Lindsey@thedijuliusgroup.com , Claudia@thedijuliusgroup.com If you want to learn how world-class organizations build cultures customers cannot live without, explore The Experience Revolution Membership. Inside the membership you'll gain access to livestream workshops, practical frameworks, and proven strategies used by organizations around the world. Learn more at https://thedijuliusgroup.com/membership/ Chapters: 00:00 Introduction to Customer Service Revolution Podcast 01:10 Personal Activities and Springtime Outdoors 02:41 Target's Story: Beyond Retail to Leadership 03:36 Starbucks and Brand Transition Strategies 04:14 Target's Loyalty and Experience Challenges 04:57 What Made Target a Favorite Brand 05:43 When Did Target Start to Lose Its Edge? 06:52 The Power of Brand Clarity and Leadership Vision 07:16 Amazon's Customer-Centric Model as a Benchmark 08:21 Target's Identity Crisis and Political Stances 09:31 The Risks of Taking Political or Social Stances 10:52 Overconfidence and Rapid Growth Risks 14:30 The Lag Effect in Customer Experience 16:31 Target's Cost-Cutting and Culture Impact 18:56 Genuine Frontline Investment in Training 22:29 Turning Employee Culture into Customer Experience 24:19 Employees' Belief in the Brand and Customer Perception 27:31 Target's Discount Strategies and Emotional Connection 29:54 The Dangers of Conditional Brand Commitments 32:08 The Relationship Economy and Loyalty Building 33:02 Starting Small to Improve Customer Relationships 34:53 Early Warning Signs for Organizational Culture Issues 38:25 Questions for Leadership and Brand Clarity 42:01 Revisiting Leadership Mindset and Organizational Culture Subscribe We talk about topics like this each week; be sure to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts so you don't miss an episode.

An unhealthy kind of confidence is becoming more and more prevalent, tipping into hubris. That's according to Professor Ian Robertson, Co-director of Global Brain Health Institute at Trinity College Dublin and author of How Confidence Works.

An unhealthy kind of confidence is becoming more and more prevalent, tipping into hubris. That's according to Professor Ian Robertson, Co-director of Global Brain Health Institute at Trinity College Dublin and author of How Confidence Works.

Nate Amidon: When Overconfidence Breaks the Trust You Worked So Hard to Build Read the full Show Notes and search through the world's largest audio library on Agile and Scrum directly on the Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast website: http://bit.ly/SMTP_ShowNotes.   "I had built up the trust quotient, but then I didn't think about continually maintaining it." - Nate Amidon   Nate had done everything right. As a junior Scrum Master on an internal software team, he started by building trust — showing up, listening, and letting the team know he wasn't going to make things worse. He even managed to shift their reporting metrics from velocity to predictability, a move the team embraced because it focused on what they could actually control: how well they broke down and executed their plan. But then came the overconfidence. Riding on the capital he'd built, Nate proactively designed a "sprint churn" metric to track how much work swapped in and out of a sprint. The idea wasn't bad — but he rolled it out without consulting the team first. The pushback hit hard. Engineers pushed back: adding more work mid-sprint shouldn't automatically be negative, they argued. And they were right. The real failure wasn't the metric itself — it was bypassing the collaborative process that had earned him trust in the first place. Nate learned that trust isn't something you build once and bank on. It's an everyday job. As he puts it, the Scrum Master's role is to help the team, not direct it — and the moment you start solving problems the team hasn't agreed exist, you're directing.   In this episode, we also refer to Nate's previous BONUS episode on the podcast, where he discussed the brief-execute-debrief cycle from military aviation.   Self-reflection Question: When was the last time you introduced a change to your team without first checking if they saw the same problem you did — and what happened to your trust quotient as a result?   [The Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast Recommends]

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What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on X.Episode TimeStamps: 01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for changeCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

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We asked ChatGPT to pick the 10 most insightful sports betting questions, and in this Q&A, experts Rob Pizzola and Isaac Rose-Berman break them all down. From bankroll management to understanding edge, market selection, and how sharp bettors think, this episode is packed with practical insights to help you make smarter betting decisions. Whether you're new to sports betting or looking to refine your approach, this discussion shows what it really takes to improve your process and think like a pro. Watch, learn, and let us know in the comments which insights surprised you the most. Subscribe for more expert Q&A episodes, strategy breakdowns, and sports betting analysis right here on Circles Off from The Hammer Betting Network.

Welcome to The Daily, where we study the Bible verse by verse, chapter by chapter, every day. Our shout-out today goes to Gary Mueller from Lancaster, PA. Thanks for your partnership in Project23. We cannot do this without donors like you. Our text today is 1 Corinthians 10:14-22. Therefore, my beloved, flee from idolatry. I speak as to sensible people; judge for yourselves what I say. The cup of blessing that we bless, is it not a participation in the blood of Christ? The bread that we break, is it not a participation in the body of Christ? Because there is one bread, we who are many are one body, for we all partake of the one bread. Consider the people of Israel: are not those who eat the sacrifices participants in the altar? What do I imply then? That food offered to idols is anything, or that an idol is anything? No, I imply that what pagans sacrifice they offer to demons and not to God. I do not want you to be participants with demons. You cannot drink the cup of the Lord and the cup of demons. You cannot partake of the table of the Lord and the table of demons. Shall we provoke the Lord to jealousy? Are we stronger than he? — 1 Corinthians 10:14-22 Our text today moves us from warning about temptation to confronting divided loyalty. Paul doesn't lead with subtlety. He leads with urgency: "Therefore, my beloved, flee from idolatry." Not manage it. Not flirt with it. Flee from it. Why? Because participation is never neutral. Paul anchors his argument in the divine meal, the Lord's Supper. When believers take the cup and the bread, they are not performing a ritual. They are declaring fellowship, union, and allegiance. Participation declares allegiance. The same principle applies everywhere else. What you share in shapes what you stand with. What you repeatedly participate in quietly forms loyalty—whether you intend it to or not. This is why believers should be concerned about the media we listen to, the churches we attend, the schools our children attend, where we spend our time, and who we spend our time with. Paul draws from Israel's history to make the point unmistakable. Those who ate the sacrilegious sacrifices were participants at the altar of the same gods. They aligned themselves with what that altar represented. Then Paul sharpens the warning. Idols themselves are nothing, but participation with them is not. Behind false worship is real spiritual influence. And Paul rejects the idea that believers can safely mix time, energy, and devotion without consequence. "You cannot drink the cup of the Lord and the cup of demons." This is all about allegiance. Participation declares allegiance—even when we insist our hearts belong elsewhere. Paul concludes with a sobering question: "Shall we provoke the Lord to jealousy?" God's jealousy is not insecurity. It is covenant love refusing to share what destroys his people. Overconfidence in yesterday's reading said, "I'd never fall." Now Paul says, "You can't participate at every table, so choose one." Divided participation like this invites divided loyalty. And divided loyalty always weakens devotion. So stop dividing your allegiance by participating in the wrong activities. DO THIS: Identify one place where your participation may be blurring your loyalty. Choose one clear action this week that reinforces your allegiance to Christ. ASK THIS: Where might my participation be shaping my loyalty more than I realize? What environments, habits, or influences compete with devotion to Christ? What would fleeing idolatry look like practically for me right now? PRAY THIS: Lord, reveal where my participation has been divided. Give me courage to flee what competes with you. Shape my loyalties so that my life clearly reflects who I belong to. Amen. PLAY THIS: "Turn Your Eyes Upon Jesus."

Overconfidence 101, day 1 ❤️

Welcome to The Daily, where we study the Bible verse by verse, chapter by chapter, every day. Our shout-out today goes to Anthony Robinson from Athens, TN. Thanks for your partnership in Project23. We cannot do this without donors like you. Our text today is 1 Corinthians 10:12-13. Therefore let anyone who thinks that he stands take heed lest he fall. No temptation has overtaken you that is not common to man. God is faithful, and he will not let you be tempted beyond your ability, but with the temptation he will also provide the way of escape, that you may be able to endure it. — 1 Corinthians 10:12-13 In our text today, Paul shifts the warning inward. After connecting Israel's failures to the church, he turns the spotlight on the reader's posture. "Let anyone who thinks that he stands take heed lest he fall." The danger isn't temptation alone. It's confidence without carefulness. Spiritual collapse rarely begins with outright rebellion. It begins with growing self-certainty. The thought or words "I'd never do that" may feel responsible. Mature. Safe. But they often signal something else—self‑confidence, not God-confidence. You see, Israel didn't plan to fall from grace. They assumed they were standing in grace. Standing in freedom. Standing in privilege. Standing in proximity to God. And that assumption led to spiritual carelessness. Paul isn't warning the weak. He's warning the self-confident. Those who think their knowledge, discipline, past obedience, or spiritual maturity make them immune. Temptation loves to exploit our overconfidence. But Paul immediately balances the warning with hope. "No temptation has overtaken you that is not common to man." This means you are not uniquely vulnerable to the slippery slide of self-confidence. But immediately following, he declares with a megaphone: "God is faithful." Notice what God promises to you and me—and what he does not. He does not promise immunity from temptation. He does promise provision in it. He promises a provision of escape—but only for those who are paying attention. Overconfidence misses the escape hatch. Humility looks for the escape hatch. There is a means of escape from every temptation unless overconfidence takes hold. Standing firm isn't about trusting yourself more. It's about trusting in God sooner, before overconfidence takes hold. The most dangerous words, "I'd never do that," aren't thought in rebellion. They're spoken by the self to the self in the moment before the fall. DO THIS: Identify one area where confidence may be dulling vigilance. Invite accountability, prayer, or a boundary where you've been relying too much on yourself. ASK THIS: Where do I quietly assume I'm strong enough on my own? What temptations do I underestimate because of past victories? How can I stay alert rather than be overconfident? PRAY THIS: God, guard me from trusting myself more than you. Keep me alert, humble, and dependent on your faithfulness. Show me the way of escape—and give me the courage to take it. Amen. PLAY THIS: "Confidence."

Episode Summary Building wealth isn't just about choosing the right investment—it's about having the right framework for decision-making. In this episode, Gary Pinkerton and Jaden Zubal explore the financial operating system that helps investors align their money with their goals, avoid common cognitive biases, and build wealth with greater clarity and control. They dive into the Hierarchy of Wealth, a framework that balances control and risk across different asset types. By understanding how assets fit within this hierarchy—from highly controlled assets like cash and insurance to more speculative investments—investors can build a financial structure designed to last for decades. The conversation also addresses a surprising truth: even smart, educated people make poor financial decisions. Cognitive biases, social pressure, and increasingly AI-driven information can push investors toward choices that feel good in the moment but undermine long-term goals. By applying the 4-3-2-1 framework, investors can filter decisions through purpose, strategy, and systems thinking—creating a financial life that supports both security and freedom. Links & Resources Connect with Gary Pinkerton https://www.paradigmlife.net/  gpinkerton@paradigmlife.net https://garypinkerton.com/  https://clientportal.paradigmlife.net/WealthView360  Jaden is a colleague and fellow Wealth Strategist at Paradigm Life.  Find out more at: Jaden Zubal - Paradigm Life Home | Jaden Zubal jzubal@paradigmlife.net Keywords Financial framework Hierarchy of wealth Financial decision making Wealth strategy Passive income Real estate investing Financial independence Systems thinking Cognitive bias AI and investing Wealth building strategy Financial planning frameworks Purpose-driven wealth Asset allocation strategy Risk vs control investing Episode Highlights 00:32:39–33:02 - Frameworks help investors filter opportunities and avoid distractions 33:02–34:47 - Why financial advisors and clients often have conflicting goals 34:47–35:26 - The concept behind the "Die With Zero" philosophy 35:26–36:05 - The uncertainty of lifespan and why retirement planning is complex 36:05–36:31 - Introducing the Hierarchy of Wealth framework 36:31–37:15 - Why frameworks guide decisions but don't make decisions 37:15–38:12 - Control vs risk as the foundation of the hierarchy 38:12–39:08 - Using the framework to evaluate financial decisions 39:08–39:54 - Ideal allocations across different wealth tiers 39:54–40:34 - Direct ownership vs passive investments 40:34–41:11 - How the same asset can fall into different tiers 41:11–41:56 - Why direct real estate ownership offers greater control 41:56–42:46 - Real estate as a long-term wealth protection strategy 42:46–43:42 - Leveraging professionals and advisors when entering real estate 43:42–44:42 - Comparing wealth allocation strategies with family offices and institutions 44:42–45:46 - How banks structure assets and liquidity 45:46–46:23 - Why intelligent people still make poor financial decisions 46:23–47:17 - Cognitive bias and the role of AI in modern decision making 47:17–48:49 - How AI can reinforce personal bias 48:49–49:52 - Awareness of bias as the first step to avoiding mistakes 49:52–50:28 - Status quo bias and why people rarely adjust retirement accounts 50:28–51:13 - Overconfidence and its impact on investing 51:13–52:11 - Systems thinking and using the 4-3-2-1 framework to guide decisions

March Madness is one of our favorite times of the year! Therefore, we've put together a list of the 16 worst money habits, in a "Salty-16" to see which habit wins as the worst habit. LEFT REGION: Everyday & Emotional   B1  ·  EVERYDAY MONEY LEAKS 1  Daily impulse spending  vs. 16  Forgotten subscriptions  People instantly relate.   B2  ·  EMOTIONAL SPENDING 8  Stress shopping  vs. 9  Rewarding yourself every hardship When does self-care become self-sabotage?   B3  ·  AVOIDANCE HABITS 5  Not checking your bank account vs. 12  Ignoring CC statements  "Avoidance charges interest."   B4  ·  LIFESTYLE INFLATION 4  Upgrading lifestyle after every raise vs. 13  Financing things to feel successful  The dark horse of the left region.     RIGHT REGION: Debt & Budget   B5  ·  DEBT BEHAVIOR 5  Paying only minimum payments  vs. 12  Saying "I'll deal with debt later" Minimums feel like progress. They're not.   B6  ·  SOCIAL PRESSURE HABITS 4  Spending to keep up w/ friends  vs. 13  Saying yes to every event broke FOMO is an expensive habit.   B7  ·  BUDGET SABOTAGE 6  Guessing instead of tracking vs. 11  Starting budgets, quit after 5 days  The Cinderella pick. Could go all the way.   B8  ·  FALSE CONFIDENCE HABITS 3  High income solves everything  vs. 14  One good month = problem solved Overconfidence is a budget's worst enemy.   Highlighted row = analyst's pick to advance Who do you think will win?  Who is your darkhorse, your Cinderella? Let us know if you enjoy this episode and, if so, please share it with your friends! Or, you can support the show by visiting our Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/crushingDebt   To contact George Curbelo, you can email him at GCFinancialCoach21@gmail.com or follow his Tiktok channel - https://www.tiktok.com/@curbelofinancialcoach  To contact Shawn Yesner, you can email him at Shawn@Yesnerlaw.com or visit www.YesnerLaw.com. And please consider a donation to Pancreatic Cancer research and education by joining Shawn's team at MY Legacy Striders: http://support.pancan.org/goto/MyLegacy2026 

The mindset of a poker pro can now be applied outside of a narrow game.In Episode #517 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: Annie Duke's 'Thinking In Bets' book and how the poker mindset can reshape everyday decision-making, why focusing on process over outcomes matters, how using AI as a sounding board revealed hidden risk-taking in my own finances, testing assumptions in small experiments before going all-in, how arbitrage opportunities appear with prediction markets and why clarity on desired outcomes should drive bet-sizing. No support for this week so no beanie either. Also my laptop died suddenly hence the rather curt cut off at the end. Luckily we were almost done anyway phew. Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortalsTimeline: (00:00:00) Intro(00:03:22) Outcome vs process: luck, good decisions, and post mortems(00:09:16) Poker as repeated high impact decisions and learning while folding(00:12:45) Symmetry, asymmetry, and spotting obviously bad bets(00:18:34) Focus on decision quality, not results: lessons from early poker hands(00:23:34) Plans that fail from wrong models: refining sell strategies(00:28:15) Designing a simple, robust framework: time, percentage, and mean reversion(00:31:28) Support break and playful side bets (brief interlude)(00:31:59) Defining enough: goals, asymmetry, and chasing deltas(00:35:18) Context is king: life design vs maximising returns(00:38:56) Lifestyle upgrades vs status buys(00:42:39) Comparing lives you don't want(00:45:14) Test your dreams: mini retirements and truth over fantasy(00:48:25) Prediction markets 101: from politics to Eurovision(00:51:08) Arbitrage basics: finding edge across bookmakers(00:56:24) Overconfidence, Dunning Kruger and too much information(01:01:02) Avoiding tilt: energy, time, and knowing when to walk away(01:03:27) AI flights of fancy: unified physics and healthy scepticism(01:05:01) Wrap up: from thinking in bets to betting on ideas Connect with Mere Mortals:Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/jjfq9eGReUTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspodsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcastsValue 4 Value Support:Boostagram: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/supportPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/47grFFj Trevor Cummings hosts the Thoughts and Money Podcast with Brett Bonecutter and Blaine Carver, discussing his blog topic “Shortcuts, Head Starts and Changing Lanes.” After attending a conference job fair for aspiring financial advisors, they critique “fast track” career programs and argue against career and investing shortcuts, emphasizing foundation-building, patience, and willingness to do early “dirty work.” They compare shortcuts to chasing penny stocks, leverage, and persuasive pitches, noting investors' susceptibility to FOMO, media narratives, and relative performance envy. They advocate “head starts” through early saving and compounding, citing a chart showing higher ending wealth from starting at 25 versus 35 despite lower total contributions. They warn against “changing lanes” in strategies, promote seeking “good returns, not best returns,” and stress having a durable investment philosophy, accountability, and discipline to avoid ruining long-built progress quickly. 00:00 Welcome and Banter 00:54 Conference Shortcut Pitch 02:24 Why the Long Cut Wins 05:44 Dirty Work and Foundations 08:08 Shortcuts in Life and Money 10:05 Smooth Is Fast Principle 12:01 Penny Stocks and Red Flags 13:56 Why We Chase Shortcuts 18:08 Head Starts Beat Catching Up 20:05 Compounding Chart Explained 21:26 Discipline and Real Life Costs 24:08 Don't Disrupt Compounding 24:40 Can You Afford It 26:18 Credit Changes Everything 27:42 Changing Lanes Trap 29:36 Good Returns Mindset 31:30 Relative Returns FOMO 33:21 Shallow Convictions 34:31 Philosophy vs Institutions 39:49 Time Horizon Edge 42:34 Reputation and Shortcuts 43:54 Advisor as Accountability 45:13 Same as Ever Lessons 46:06 Overconfidence and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

Most growth stalls don't start with bad strategy. They start with a “safe” decision that felt responsible — and quietly reduced momentum. As companies scale, the cost of being wrong feels higher. So CEOs delay hires. They pause expansion. They protect cash. What once made them decisive at $1M becomes hesitation at $20M — and hesitation compounds into stalled revenue, overbuilt teams, and expensive course corrections. Hot markets hide weak decisions. Down markets expose them. Overconfidence in expansion cycles, overstaffing based on temporary demand, and slow pivots when conditions shift can create six-figure consequences that feel sudden — but weren't. Markets move. Technology accelerates. Talent expectations change. The real risk isn't making the wrong move. It's making no move while the environment recalibrates around you. Jason Kroll shares how building BankW Staffing from three founders and $36,000 into a multi-brand firm with more than 100 employees forced hard decisions about scale, risk, hiring, and capital discipline — and what he learned when momentum turned. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

"The biggest score killer isn't one wrong answer. It's inconsistent pacing." Zach sits down once again with test prep expert Stacey Koprince—this time with a big milestone to share: his EA exam appointment is officially booked (date undisclosed, of course). From there, the conversation becomes a practical, stress-reducing roadmap for what to do after a practice test dip and before the real thing. Stacey helps Zach break down his recent practice exam results into three clear categories—strengths you can't coast on, fixable mistakes worth reviewing, and true "kryptonite" topics that are better strategically skipped. Along the way, they dig into why careless mistakes happen, how to review smarter (not longer), and how to make confident time-management decisions on test day—especially within the EA's panel-based format. The second half of the episode is focused on answering listern questions: how early is too early (or too late) to start studying, how many hours per week actually make sense, how EA prep compares to GMAT prep, and whether private tutoring is really worth the cost in the age of AI and free content. Stacey also calls out some of the worst test prep advice she sees—spoiler: grinding thousands of questions without proper review is at the top of the list. If you're approaching test day, debating between the EA and GMAT, or just want calmer, more strategic guidance on how to prepare like a pro, this episode is packed with reassurance, humor, and hard-earned insight. About Stacey: Stacey Koprince is one of the most recognized names in test prep, with over 15 years of experience teaching the GMAT, EA, GRE, and LSAT. As Manhattan Prep's Director of Content & Curriculum, she has written countless articles, guides, and video explanations that thousands of students rely on. A former management consultant, Stacey now spends her days helping future business leaders master tricky concepts and find confidence in their prep—something she's passionate about seeing "click" for every student. Helpful links: Register for the EA: https://www.mba.com/exams/executive-assessment/register Purchase EA Official Prep: https://www.mba.com/exams/executive-assessment/prepare GMAC Free EA Prep: https://www.mba.com/exams/executive-assessment/prepare/free-prep-resources Manhattan Prep EA Resources: https://www.kaptest.com/gmat/courses/executive-assessment-test-prep Inside the GMAT/GMAC Zach on Substack: https://substack.com/@gmaczach Key Takeaways: Not all wrong answers mean the same thing. Separate true content gaps, careless mistakes, and "kryptonite" topics—each requires a different response. You can't coast on your strengths. Overconfidence in strong areas is one of the most common sources of avoidable score drops. Letting go is a strategy, not a failure. Knowing in advance which question types you'll skip or guess on preserves time, confidence, and overall performance. Timing decisions matter more than individual questions. When to move on from a question can have an outsized impact on your score. Practice tests are for diagnosis, not judgment. A score dip on a practice exam is normal—and often a sign you're learning the right lessons at the right time. Learning happens between problems, not during them. Review, reflection, and targeted drills drive improvement—not sheer volume. The final days are about readiness, not grinding. Light review, strategy reminders, and mental freshness beat last-minute cramming every time. Test-day routines should reduce decisions, not add them. Plan logistics, warm-ups, food, clothing, and timing in advance so your brain is reserved for the exam. Free prep can work—until it doesn't. If your score is improving, keep going. If it stalls, higher-quality (and often paid) resources may be worth it. The EA and GMAT demand different prep philosophies. EA prep is typically shorter and threshold-based; GMAT prep often requires more time due to how scores are used in admissions and rankings. Chapters: 00:00 Zach Shares His Exam Booking and Location Choice 01:30 Study Strategies and Practice Test Review 06:08 Test Day Preparation and Environment Setup 13:51 Final Tips for the Day Before and Day Of the Exam 19:50 Managing Test Anxiety and Strategic Question Skipping 24:58 Your Questions: Resources, Study Buddies, and When to Seek Help

Most investors think their biggest losses come from bad picks. They don't. They come from blind spots. In this episode, Andy Tanner, Corey Halliday, and Noah Davidson unpack the psychological traps that quietly sabotage traders and investors. Sunk cost fallacy. Anchoring to past prices. Averaging down to "get back to even." Overconfidence disguised as conviction. These aren't strategy problems. They're belief problems. You'll hear why price alone tells you nothing about value. Why holding a loser to avoid admitting you're wrong is often the costliest decision you can make. And why the real edge in trading isn't prediction — it's risk management. The conversation moves beyond tactics and into self-awareness. Because markets don't just test your capital. They test your identity. Are you managing risk — or defending your ego?
Are you following a plan — or reacting to discomfort? This episode isn't about a new indicator or a better entry signal. It's about understanding how your own thinking can distort decision-making — and how disciplined investors structure their process to prevent small errors from becoming permanent damage. The market is rarely the enemy. Unexamined assumptions are. Want to Learn More? – Explore free education and tools at cashflowbonus.com to strengthen your investing foundation – Keep building your financial education at yourinvestingclass.com.

In this episode, Dr. Killeen shares the story of the 1900 Galveston hurricane to explore how overconfidence can quietly create massive risk in leadership and business. He talks about why experience and past success can sometimes make us less curious, less cautious, and more vulnerable to blind spots. The takeaway is simple and practical: build habits and systems that assume you might be wrong, invite challenge from people you trust, and choose humility as a long term advantage.

What does leaving your coat at home on a chilly day have to do with critical thinking? Want to test yourself on how well you can recognize fallacies in real life? Take the Meme Fallacy Quiz! www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/quiz Learn more about Crazy Thinkers membership where you can practice critical thinking using real-life memes, articles & headlines: www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/crazy Here's how you can purchase the Logical Fallacies ebook: https://www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/offers/z6xbAcB2 Send me any questions, comments or even the fallacies you're seeing around you! think@filteritthroughabraincell.com Or, tag me on Instagram: @filteritthroughabraincell Sign up on my email list at: www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/contact Learn more about Classical Conversations: www.classicalconversations.com/filterit Thank you to our sponsor, CTC Math! Website: https://www.ctcmath.com/?tr_id=brain Homeschool page: https://www.ctcmath.com/how-it-works/home-school?tr_id=brain Free trail: https://www.ctcmath.com/trial?tr_id=brain Special offer! Get 1/2-off discounts plus bonus 6-months free! Critical Thinking for Teens Logical Fallacies for Teens Cognitive Biases for Teens Homeschool Logic Critical thinking for Middle schoolers

Your boss's biggest career win might be setting them up for their biggest failure.

Neuroscientist and psychologist Ian Robertson joins Business Builders to unpack what confidence really is, how it shapes success, and why it can quietly turn against the very people it helps elevate.Ian is Emeritus Professor at Trinity College, Dublin and author of two best-selling books:How Confidence Works: the new science of self-belief. PenguinThe Winner Effect: the science of success and how to use it. BloomsburyRather than treating confidence as optimism or self-belief, Ian explains it as a brain-based mechanism; one that drives action, motivation, mood, influence, and decision-making. Drawing on neuroscience, psychology, sport, leadership, and real-world examples, he shows how confidence compounds through small wins, why it's essential for navigating uncertainty, and how it can distort judgment as success accumulates.The conversation also explores the dark side of confidence: how overconfidence becomes addictive, why it mirrors the effects of power on the brain, and how leaders, founders, and public figures can lose self-awareness as dopamine, status, and success reinforce one another. Ian draws a sharp distinction between intrinsic goals, wanting to be good at what you do, and extrinsic goals like money, status, and beating competitors, explaining why one builds resilience while the other undermines judgment and mental health.This episode is a deep, practical look at confidence as a tool, one that can build extraordinary momentum if used well, and cause serious damage if misunderstood.

On this episode of CFO at Home, Vince·s guest is Scott MacKenzie, author of The Lobster League, A Fable About Personal Finance. Scott and Vince dive into the concept of the book, which is designed as a fable to teach personal financial lessons through relatable stories, inspired by Scott·s extensive experience in the area of behavioral finance. They discuss how the human tendencies of herding and overconfidence can impact our investing. Scott also emphasizes the importance of having a clear set of personal priorities and goals, specifically by creating a bucket list to guide financial decisions. Like the book, our conversation offers valuable insights into personal finance for both money enthusiasts and those not as financially inclined. To learn more about Scott and The Lobster League, go the thelobsterleague.com Key Topics: 01:10 The Story Behind 'The Lobster League' 04:00 Crafting a Financial Fable 05:54 Behavioral Finance Insights 08:56 Herding and Market Trends 21:22 Overconfidence and Fear in Investing 27:48 Creating a Personal Financial Vision 33:23 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Key Links thelobsterleague.com Scott MacKenzie, MBA, CFP®, CIMA® | LinkedIn  Contact the Host - vince@thecfoathome.com  Want to be a guest on CFO at Home? Send Vince a message on PodMatch, here: https://www.podmatch.com/hostdetailpreview/1628643039567x840793309030672500  

Summary In this episode, Andy talks with Olivia Montgomery, Associate Principal Analyst at Capterra and a PMP. They discuss how artificial intelligence is reshaping project management tools, skills, and expectations. Olivia brings a rare perspective, combining hands-on experience leading a PMO with years of research into how organizations evaluate, adopt, and struggle with project management software. Olivia and Andy explore why buying AI-powered tools is often easy, but realizing real value from them is much harder. Olivia explains the shift from buying software based on seat count to buying based on capability, why security is both the top source of satisfaction and frustration, and how unclear success metrics can quietly derail adoption. They also dig into the hidden risks of delegating too much to AI, including data governance blind spots and misplaced trust in tools that feel intuitive but have real limitations. You'll also hear why emotional intelligence is becoming more important as technology advances, how PMs can stress-test AI tools before committing, and which skills will separate the next generation of project leaders from the rest. If you're trying to prepare for the future of AI, tools, and skills in project management, this episode is for you! Sound Bites "Buying tools is very easy. Realizing the value is extremely difficult." "Security is not IT's job. It's the whole company's job." "If your main metric is just 'use AI,' that's a red flag." "AI is very good at predicting what is most likely to happen next, and terrible at predicting black swan events." "Emotional intelligence is what helps you move forward when technology can't." "Use AI to generate a first draft. That's the safest place to start." "If you don't know the topic well yourself, you won't spot when AI gets it wrong." "Confidence in AI can grow faster than readiness, and that's where problems start." "AI can flag a risk, but it cannot tell you why people are stuck." "Data governance is going to set project managers apart in the future." "No matter what job you have in ten years, emotional intelligence will still matter." Chapters 00:00 Introduction 02:00 Start of Interview 02:10 Olivia's Role and Career Path 06:53 Shifts in How Organizations Choose PM Software 08:23 The Security Satisfaction and Frustration Paradox 11:25 Why AI Tools Are Easy to Buy but Hard to Use Well 20:18 Warning Signs of Overconfidence in AI 24:03 How to Stress-Test AI Tools Before Buying 27:50 Why Emotional Intelligence Matters More with AI 34:28 The Future of Project Management Software 40:08 Skills That Will Define the Next Generation of PMs 45:20 Where to Follow Olivia's Work 46:20 End of Interview 46:40 Andy Comments After the Interview 49:15 Outtakes Learn More You can follow Olivia Montgomery and her research on LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/olivia-montgomery. For more learning on this topic, check out: Episode 479 with Matt Mong, about the AI skills you need to stay relevant in the years ahead Episode 463 with Faisal Hoque, on how to transcend the fear and hype around AI Episode 384 with PMeLa, the first-ever interview with an AI on a leadership or project management podcast Level Up Your AI Skills Join other listeners from around the world who are taking our AI Made Simple course to prepare for an AI-infused future. Just go to ai.PeopleAndProjectsPodcast.com. Thanks! Pass the PMP Exam If you or someone you know is thinking about getting PMP certified, we've put together a helpful guide called The 5 Best Resources to Help You Pass the PMP Exam on Your First Try. We've helped thousands of people earn their certification, and we'd love to help you too. It's totally free, and it's a great way to get a head start. Just go to 5BestResources.PeopleAndProjectsPodcast.com to grab your copy. I'd love to help you get your PMP this year! Join Us for LEAD52 I know you want to be a more confident leader, that's why you listen to this podcast. LEAD52 is a global community of people like you who are committed to transforming their ability to lead and deliver. It's 52 weeks of leadership learning, delivered right to your inbox, taking less than 5 minutes a week. And it's all for free. Learn more and sign up at GetLEAD52.com. Thanks! Thank you for joining me for this episode of The People and Projects Podcast! Talent Triangle: Business Acumen Topics: Artificial Intelligence, Project Management Software, Project Management, Business Acumen, Data Governance, Security, Emotional Intelligence, AI Adoption, Future Of Work, Leadership Skills, Technology Strategy The following music was used for this episode: Music: Echo by Alexander Nakarada License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license Music: Tuesday by Sascha Ende License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

AI is everywhere, from investing apps and portfolio tools to recipe planners and vacation organizers, artificial intelligence touches countless corners of our lives. In finance, AI promises accessibility. For newer investors, it's a way to learn basic concepts, compare traditional and Roth IRAs, or understand the difference between tax brackets, all delivered in plain English. AI is also a huge help with organization and financial efficiency. Need a budgeting framework or quick ways to categorize cash flow? AI can create those. It's a handy pocket assistant that helps you plan and ask sharper questions when evaluating financial advisors or planning your future. The Real Limitations of AI in Financial Planning While AI is a powerful tool, it is not a decision maker. Here are the big dangers and drawbacks you need to keep in mind: 1. Zero Personal Accountability AI doesn't bear the consequences of its advice. If it suggests an irreversible move, like a Roth IRA conversion, based on incomplete or incorrect information, the cost falls entirely on you. 2. Overconfidence in Precision AI delivers advice with absolute confidence, even when it's wrong! Financial planning isn't just numbers, it's trade-offs, nuances, and judgment calls that factor in health, family dynamics, and personal emotional risk tolerance. 3. Struggles with Multi-Year Tax Planning Most AI tools treat tax decisions generically just one year at a time. But real retirement tax planning means looking ahead 10, 15, or 20 years. Missed integration here can cost you tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of dollars over a career or lifetime. 4. One-Dimensional Investment Advice AI assumes perfect discipline and zero life changes, no panic selling, no sudden need for funds. But human emotion, especially during retirement or volatile markets, often drives decisions. 5. False Sense of Security AI's confident answers may mask underlying complexity. A small financial misstep, repeated or compounded over decades, can grow into a massive problem down the road. 6. Lack of Behavioral Guardrails Emotions play a huge role in retirement and investment decisions. Life throws curveballs—loss, illness, market downturns, and AI cannot reframe your fears or keep you disciplined when things get tough. When Human Wisdom Matters Most Retirement planning isn't about finding simple answers, information is cheap, wisdom is not. For complex questions, AI offers basic options, but it can't weigh the sequence of return risk, or policy changes in real time, like a qualified advisor can. Human advisors coordinate, prioritize, and apply experience to your financial life. They support you through market cycles, health challenges, and family transitions, and recognize when purely rational advice doesn't capture your real needs. Using AI Wisely My advice is to use AI for learning and organization, not for important, irreversible lifestyle and tax decisions. Always double-check its work, and don't outsource your financial future entirely to algorithms. Technology plus human judgment delivers the best outcomes. AI is a powerful tool, not a complete solution. Outline of This Episode 02:24 Best in Wealth Podcast future plans.03:57 AI in daily

Learn how to survive in the wilderness with our essential tips and tricks to stay alive in the woods. From finding food and building shelter to navigating and starting a fire, we've got you covered. Whether you're a seasoned outdoorsman or just starting out, this video is a must-watch for anyone who ventures into the great outdoors. With practical advice and real-life examples, you'll be equipped with the knowledge and skills to stay safe and avoid dangerous situations. So, don't die in the woods - watch this video and stay alive.

Learn how to survive in the wilderness with our essential tips and tricks to stay alive in the woods. From finding food and building shelter to navigating and starting a fire, we've got you covered. Whether you're a seasoned outdoorsman or just starting out, this video is a must-watch for anyone who ventures into the great outdoors. With practical advice and real-life examples, you'll be equipped with the knowledge and skills to stay safe and avoid dangerous situations. So, don't die in the woods - watch this video and stay alive.

Hope for Right Now Podcast – Trust in the Impossible: An Advent Series, John the Baptist While Walking with Purpose founder Lisa takes time to write our next women's Bible study, Laura is keeping the Hope for Right Now podcast going strong with a four-week series: Trust in the Impossible: An Advent Series. Advent is meant to be a time of interior reflection—the weeks we prepare our hearts and homes to receive the birth of our Savior, Jesus Christ. But with the secular world's demands and distractions, keeping our eyes on what matters can be challenging, and the season of quiet we dream about feels impossible. What if this Advent, we said no to the overwhelm of the secular world and yes to the overshadowing of the Spirit? Each week, Laura introduces a Biblical figure from the gospel of Luke, whose story reveals the secret to a simple, peace-filled Advent—one where we yield to God's will, respond in faith, and trust in the impossible.   Today's Biblical figure: John The Baptist. If you tend to neglect John the Baptist during Advent, be sure to tune in and discover why he is significant to the gospel, but also to us right now, in these last days before the birth of Christ. Open your Heart to our key Scripture. Luke 1:57-66 Open your Bible to other Scriptures referenced in this episode. Luke 11:28: Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and keep it! Isaiah 40:3–5: A voice cries: “In the wilderness prepare the way of the Lord, make straight in the desert a highway for our God. Every valley shall be lifted up, and every mountain and hill be made low; the uneven ground shall become level, and the rough places a plain. And the glory of the Lord shall be revealed, and all flesh shall see it together, for the mouth of the Lord has spoken.” Matthew 3:1–3: In those days came John the Baptist, preaching in the wilderness of Judea, “Repent, for the kingdom of heaven is at hand.” For this is he who was spoken of by the prophet Isaiah when he said, “The voice of one crying in the wilderness; prepare the way of the Lord, make his paths straight.” Luke 1:41–44: Elizabeth heard the greeting of Mary, the babe leaped in her womb; and Elizabeth was filled with the Holy Spirit, and she exclaimed with a loud cry … For behold, when the voice of your greeting came to my ears, the babe in my womb leaped for joy. Invite Him in with this episode's questions for reflection. Using the list of internal/external obstacles provided in our show mentions, allow yourself to be guided by the Spirit. Ask Him to reveal the primary obstacle in your way.  Show mentions. Lisa Brenninkmeyer, Seven Priorities That Make Life Work. Sign up for our winter book club that begins January 12, 2026. Father Chris Alar, Divine Mercy: John the Baptist: His Real Role Internal obstacles Pride and arrogance: Overconfidence in our own ability can lead to a rejection of God's guidance. Fear: Fear of failure, humiliation, what others will think, or not being worthy or able to fulfill a calling. Doubt and unbelief: The lack of faith that makes trusting in God's plan and power challenging. Sin: Unconfessed sin creates a barrier to a close relationship with God. Self-sufficiency: The belief that we can get by without divine help. Lack of forgiveness: A huge hinderance to your spiritual progress.  External/circumstantial obstacles Worldly distractions and desires: Focusing on material possessions or the cares of this life more than God. Distractions and being too busy: A busy schedule can leave little time or energy for spiritual devotion. External pressure and societal expectations: The world can be tough, and it may not understand or support your faith.  Lack of clarity or understanding: Misinformation, wrong teachings, or a failure to understand God's will can create confusion. Listening to others instead of God: Over-reliance on human advice rather than seeking God's direction is a common problem. Let's stay connected. Don't miss an episode. Subscribe to our podcast on your favorite platform.  Want to keep the conversation going? Join our private Facebook community. Stay in the know. Connect with us today.  We are committed to creating content that is free and easily accessible to every woman—especially the one looking for answers but unsure of where to go. If you've enjoyed this podcast, prayerfully consider making a donation to support it and other WWP outreach programs that bring women closer to Christ. Learn more about WWP on our website. Our shop. Follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.

This episode is a study from the book of 1 Corinthians, with Pastor David Rosales of Calvary Chapel Chino Valley. This message was taught on December 17th, 2025. Support us by checking out our other social media platforms! Youtube: ⁠⁠www.youtube.com/@CCChinoValley⁠⁠Website: ⁠⁠www.calvaryccv.org⁠⁠Facebook: ⁠⁠www.facebook.com/CalvaryChapelChinoValley⁠⁠Instagram: ⁠⁠www.instagram.com/calvaryccv⁠⁠

Link to episode page This week's Department of Know is hosted by Rich Stroffolino with guests Keith Townsend, Keith Townsend, host CTO Advisor Podcast, founder of The Advisor Bench, and creator of the Virtual CTO Advisor; and Howard Holton, CEO, GigaOm Thanks to our show sponsor, Knowbe4 Cybersecurity isn't just a tech problem—it's a human one.   That's why KnowBe4's Human Risk Management platform allows you to measure, quantify and actually reduce human risk across your organization.   With AI-powered risk scoring, automated coaching and reporting, HRM+ helps you surface your highest risk users and reduce the risk of data breaches and cyberattacks proactively. Ready to move from awareness to action? Request a demo of HRM+ today at knowbe4.com. All links and the video of this episode can be found on CISO Series.com

Are you accidentally sabotaging your own portfolio? In this must-watch episode of the Keep It Simple Podcast, Joey Badinger – Lead Advisor at AssetBuilder – reveals the 4 behavioral biases that even professional investors battle every single day. Recorded from AssetBuilder's headquarters in Plano, Texas, this short but powerful episode will help you spot and defeat the mental traps that cause most people to buy high, sell low, and underperform the market. Whether you're a DIY investor or work with an advisor, understanding overconfidence, recency bias, herd behavior, and confirmation bias is the difference between building real wealth and just spinning your wheels. Timestamps (only the big 5-10 moments): 00:00 – Intro & Important Disclaimer 00:40 – Welcome from Joey Badinger (Plano, TX) 01:15 – Why even the pros at AssetBuilder aren't immune to these biases 01:45 – Bias #1: Overconfidence – thinking you can consistently beat the market 04:50 – Bias #2: Recency Bias – “This time it's different” & panic selling 06:50 – Bias #3: Herd Behavior (FOMO) – the GameStop lesson & buying high 08:50 – Bias #4: Confirmation Bias – only listening to news that agrees with you 10:15 – Final recap of all 4 biases + how to fight them daily 10:40 – Closing & how to contact the AssetBuilder team Hosted by Joey Badinger Podcast: Keep It Simple by AssetBuilder Location: Plano, Texas Official site → https://www.assetbuilder.com Have questions? Email podcast@assetbuilder.com or book a free consultation on their site. If this helped you invest smarter, smash that LIKE button, SUBSCRIBE, and hit the bell – new episodes drop every week with simple, evidence-based strategies that actually work. #InvestingPsychology #BehavioralFinance #Overconfidence #RecencyBias #HerdBehavior #ConfirmationBias #AssetBuilder #KeepItSimplePodcast #IndexInvesting #WealthBuilding2025 #PersonalFinance

A sermon from Brent Kercheville. We have been studying the interactions that Jesus had with Peter through his ministry. We have noted that the one we know as Peter was born with the name Simon. Jesus gave Simon the name Peter which means rock. Throughout the gospel accounts we see Jesus teaching Peter and the […] The post Overconfidence (Matthew 26:30-41) appeared first on Biblical Truths from West Palm Beach church of Christ.

How do human choices, biases, and behaviours shape our economy? This week Amol speaks to Nobel Prize winning behavioural economist Professor Richard Thaler about his theories that dive into the patterns behind our decision-making and reveal why humans aren't always as rational as we like to think. From overconfidence and the lure of winning at any cost, to the hidden costs of risk-taking and the psychology of incentives, his research shows why individuals and markets sometimes make surprising — or even seemingly irrational — choices. By unpacking the experiments described in his book The Winner's Curse we get an insight into his work and he applies these behavioural insights to the issues facing the UK today. They discuss how to get young people off welfare and into work, government debt and why Richard believes the winter fuel allowance needs a rethink. (00:04:10) Why he thinks traditional economic theory is flawed (00:07:44) The pros and cons of behavioural economics (00:17:40) The story behind The Winner's Curse (00:19:00) The Endowment Effect (00:21:16) The Ultimatum Game (00:23:28) Confirmation Bias and Overconfidence (00:25:54) Mental Accounting (00:29:42) Young people, welfare and work (00:33:35) Tackling government debt (00:38:32) The housing crisis (00:40:06) The rise of AI and dangers of social media (00:43:00) How he found out that he'd won the Nobel Prize for Economics (00:45:26) Richard Thaler's legacy (00:47:43) Amol's reflections (00:51:20) Listener Messages GET IN TOUCH * WhatsApp: 0330 123 9480 * Email: radical@bbc.co.uk Episodes of Radical with Amol Rajan are released every Thursday and you can also watch them on BBC iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m002f1d0/radical-with-amol-rajan Amol Rajan is a presenter of the Today programme on BBC Radio 4. He is also the host of University Challenge on BBC One. Before that, Amol was media editor at the BBC and editor at The Independent. Radical with Amol Rajan is a Today Podcast. It was made by Lewis Vickers with Anna Budd. Digital production was by Gabriel Purcell-Davis. Technical production was by Dave O'Neill. The editor is Sam Bonham. The executive producer is Owenna Griffiths.

In this episode of More Than Commas, the Sound Financial Group team dive into a headline-grabbing article: "I Asked ChatGPT to Plan My Retirement." The panel unpacks what happens when artificial intelligence is trusted with life-changing financial planning. They discuss missing details like inflation, taxes, and real expenses, and why AI can't yet replace human discernment or accountability. The team explores the dangers of overconfidence, explaining how small errors compound into massive risks when unverified data drives big financial decisions. They also share insights on how advisors responsibly use AI for efficiency and analysis, not as a substitute for wisdom and coaching. This engaging, thought-provoking discussion helps listeners understand where technology helps, and where it can dangerously mislead, when building lasting wealth.   -- Timestamps: 02:30 – The article: "I Asked ChatGPT to Plan My Retirement" 04:00 – What AI gets wrong about financial planning 06:30 – The missing context: taxes, inflation & lifestyle 09:00 – Overconfidence, errors & the illusion of precision 12:00 – Why good prompts still need human judgment 15:00 – Using AI responsibly in financial planning 18:00 – Final takeaways: tech as a tool, not a teacher   -- This Material is Intended for General Public Use. By providing this material, we are not undertaking to provide investment advice for any specific individual or situation or to otherwise act in a fiduciary capacity. Please contact one of our financial professionals for guidance and information specific to your individual situation. Sound Financial LLC dba Sound Financial Group is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through Sound Financial LLC dba Sound Financial Group and individually licensed and appointed agents in all appropriate jurisdictions. This podcast is meant for general informational purposes and is not to be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice. You should consult a financial professional regarding your individual situation. Guest speakers are not affiliated with Sound Financial LLC dba Sound Financial Group unless otherwise stated, and their opinions are their own. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The fine line between confidence and certaintyThe story of Marcus: how overconfidence eroded trust and performanceWhy success can unintentionally reinforce blind spotsThe power of calibrated confidence—believing in yourself while staying curiousHow strategic self-doubt sharpens leadership judgmentReflection prompts to uncover where confidence may be holding you back

New research on the psychology of overconfidence reveals that even when people get clear feedback about their actual abilities, their confidence doesn't budge. The finding might not surprise you, but as we explore in this episode of Two Guys on Your Head, with Dr. Art Markman, Dr. Bob Duke, and Rebecca McInroy, the way researchers […] The post Overconfidence appeared first on KUT & KUTX Studios -- Podcasts.

In this week's Frankly, Nate considers the ways in which our social species overvalues false-confidence rather than the more honest and inquisitive response of “I don't know.” He invites us to consider the science behind this cultural bias towards certainty: from our biological response from the stress of “not knowing” to the reinforcing effects of motivated reasoning that ensnares even the smartest among us (especially the smartest among us). Overconfidence and the desire for quick answers have been the root cause of many of humanity's disasters, from the space shuttle Challenger explosion to the Deep Water Horizon oil spill to the subprime housing bubble. And now, the exponential growth and integration of Artificial Intelligence is hyper-fueling this risk, as AI mirrors the human aversion to uncertainty through “hallucinations”. As some AI companies are now considering penalizing over-confident answers in favor of “I don't know”, perhaps humans could learn to do the same for ourselves. How often do you say. "I don't know"?  In what ways do we lose opportunities for conversation and exploration by not admitting our own uncertainties? Can listening to our own gut for “truth” and embracing intentional Red Team dissent shift “I don't know” from weakness to wisdom? (Recorded October 17th, 2025)   Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has issued an emergency directive for federal agencies to update their F5 products following a significant breach where hackers accessed source code and undisclosed vulnerabilities. This incident, discovered in August, poses a serious risk to federal networks, as the threat actor could exploit these vulnerabilities to gain unauthorized access and exfiltrate sensitive data. Agencies are required to apply the latest updates by October 22nd and report their F5 deployments by October 29th, highlighting the urgency of addressing these security concerns.In a related development, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is encouraging federal agencies to take calculated risks with artificial intelligence (AI) under new federal guidance. Martin Stanley, an AI and cybersecurity researcher, emphasized the importance of risk management in AI deployment, particularly in comparison to more established sectors like financial services. As agencies adapt to this guidance, they must identify high-impact AI applications that require thorough risk management to ensure both innovation and safety.A report from Cork Protection underscores the need for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to adopt a security-first approach in light of evolving cyber threats. Many SMBs remain complacent, mistakenly believing they are not targets for cybercriminals. The report warns that this mindset, combined with the rising financial risks associated with breaches, necessitates a shift towards a security-centric operational model. The cybersecurity services market is projected to grow significantly, presenting opportunities for IT service providers that prioritize security.Apple has announced a substantial increase in its bug bounty program, now offering up to $5 million for critical vulnerabilities. This move reflects the growing importance of addressing security challenges within its ecosystem, which includes over 2.35 billion active devices. The company has previously awarded millions to security researchers, emphasizing its commitment to user privacy and security. As the landscape of cybersecurity evolves, managed service providers (MSPs) are urged to tighten vendor monitoring, incorporate AI risk assessments, and focus on continuous assurance to meet the increasing demands for security. Three things to know today00:00 Cybersecurity Crossroads: F5 Breach, AI Risk, and Apple's $5M Bug Bounty Signal Security Accountability06:44 Nearly a Third of MSPs Admit to Preventable Microsoft 365 Data Loss, Syncro Survey Finds09:22 AI Reality Check: Workers' Overconfidence, Cheaper Models, and Microsoft's Scientific Breakthrough Signal Maturity in the Market This is the Business of Tech.     Supported by:  https://mailprotector.com/mspradio/ 

Adversity isn't optional. Every entrepreneur will face it — the question is whether it breaks you or builds you. Jeff Martinovich lost everything: his billion-dollar firm, his freedom, and his reputation. But instead of disappearing, he fought back, rebuilt, and now teaches CEOs and founders how to bulletproof their lives and businesses.If you think success protects you, think again — this episode will change the way you prepare for the unexpected.In this conversation, Tyler Jorgenson sits down with Jeff Martinovich — Air Force Academy grad, Gulf War vet, and former billion-dollar CEO who endured a seven-year battle with the federal government and came out stronger. Jeff shares raw lessons on overconfidence, resilience, and playing defense as an entrepreneur. You'll hear how he lost everything, found strength in helping others (even from prison), and rebuilt his family, business portfolio, and mission from the ground up.Jeff's journey is a masterclass in turning setbacks into springboards and protecting what you've built when life throws its worst at you.What You'll LearnWhy overconfidence can blind successful entrepreneurs to hidden risksThe mindset shift that helps you survive and rebuild after massive failureHow to lead with transparency — and why it builds deep trustTactical ways to “play defense” and protect your business before adversity hitsThe power of gratitude and courage when fear tries to keep you down

Cybersecurity Today: Red Hat Breach, CLOP Targets Oracle, and CISA Cuts Critical Support In this episode of Cybersecurity Today, host Jim Love covers a recent breach of Red Hat's consulting GitLab server, highlighting concerns over exposed network maps and tokens. The CLOP extortion gang targets Oracle E-Business Suite clients, demanding ransom for sensitive data. Surveys show Canadian businesses are overconfident in their cyber defenses despite frequent attacks. Finally, CISA has ended a crucial cybersecurity support agreement, impacting state and local governments amidst a federal shutdown. Tune in for detailed analysis and urgent action items. 00:00 Red Hat GitLab Server Breach 02:21 CLOP Gang Targets Oracle E-Business Suite 04:29 Canadian Firms' Overconfidence in Cybersecurity 06:31 CISA Ends Critical Support Amid Shutdown 08:38 Conclusion and Upcoming Month in Review

Overconfidence is an insidious killer. If you assume your enemies can't ever overcome your position, you might be proven dramatically wrong, especially if you've left them to cultivate their power for too long. Frankly, this seems especially true when it comes to super villains, who are capable of producing magical weapons with surprisingly few resources.

From AssetBuilder's Plano HQ, host Joey Badinger sits down with Adam Morse, Janet Griffith, and Tommy Williams to unpack America's debt picture—from household budgets to the federal balance sheet. We break down mortgages vs. auto/student/credit-card debt, what rising rates mean, how to use debt-to-income (DTI) the smart way (the 28/36 rule), and practical habits to avoid lifestyle creep and instant-gratification financing. You'll learn: How much U.S. households owe (and where it sits by generation) Why mortgages can be “productive” debt—and why long car loans aren't Current rate realities (mortgage, auto, student loans, credit cards) Exactly how to calculate your DTI (with target ranges) Behavior traps: BNPL, long auto terms, monthly-payment thinking What “deficits” mean at home and at the national level—and why they compound Hosts & Credentials: Joey Badinger (Lead Advisor), Adam Morse (Director of Advising), Janet Griffith (Senior Advisor), Tommy Williams (Associate Advisor), AssetBuilder, Plano, TX. Contact the show: https://www.assetbuilder.com Chapters 00:00 Intro & Disclaimer 00:32 Welcome, Hosts & Setup (Plano HQ) 01:00 What We're Covering: Consumer vs. National Debt 02:00 U.S. Household Debt Snapshot (Totals & Averages) 03:15 Debt by Age Cohort (30–39, 40–49 peak, etc.) 05:10 Gen Z, Mortgages & Down Payments 06:00 Is Debt “Bad”? Productive vs. Dangerous Debt 07:20 National Debt vs. GDP (Post-WWII to Today) 09:40 Auto Loans Deep Dive (Long Terms, Delinquencies) 12:10 Average Loan Sizes (New vs. Used) 13:00 Deficits at Home & Nationally—What It Means 14:20 Growth Limits, Demographics & Reality Check 16:00 Rate Check: Mortgage, Auto, Credit Cards, Student Loans 18:30 Emergency Funds > High-APR Credit Cards 20:10 BNPL & Instant-Gratification Traps 21:10 Know Your Biases (Impulse, Overconfidence) 22:40 Budgeting Habits That Actually Stick 26:10 How to Calculate DTI (28/36 Rule) 28:30 Lender Approval vs. Healthy DTI 31:00 Why 70+ Debt Can Be Risky (Context Matters) 33:00 Depreciating vs. Appreciating Assets (Cars vs. Homes) 34:20 Action Steps: Start Small, Delay Gratification 36:00 How to Contact & Subscribe 36:30 Sign-Off & Disclosure Key Takeaways Debt is a tool, not a villain. Mortgages can raise quality of life; revolving/consumer debt at high APRs can snowball. Auto loans are 2nd-largest consumer debt and loan terms are stretching—be wary of “just the monthly.” Credit-card APRs >20% make balances dangerous; build emergency savings to avoid swipes under stress. DTI targets: ≤28% housing (PITI+HOA), ≤36% total debts is healthy; 50%+ is a red flag. Behavior beats hacks: budget regularly, delay gratification, prefer used cars/shorter terms, question “need vs. want.” Hashtags & Keywords Keywords: consumer debt 2025, debt to income ratio, 28/36 rule, mortgage vs rent, auto loan terms, credit card APR, student loans, national debt vs GDP, budgeting tips, AssetBuilder advisors Hashtags: #PersonalFinance #DebtFreeJourney #DTI #Mortgage #AutoLoans #CreditCards #Investing #Budgeting #KeepItSimplePodcast #AssetBuilder

Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, reveals striking findings that seasoned national security professionals often misjudge uncertainty. This overview of his latest TNSR article, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," covers how minor training can improve decision-making accuracy and highlights the importance of structured feedback and better calibration in national security judgments. 

When markets soar, investors face a subtle but dangerous temptation: trading wisdom for excitement.With headlines touting record highs and optimism running wild, it's easy to get swept up in the momentum. But is now the time to double down—or to take a step back and exercise caution? Today, Mark Biller joins us to unpack the dangers of investing with emotion instead of wisdom.Mark Biller is Executive Editor and Senior Portfolio Manager at Sound Mind Investing, an underwriter of Faith & Finance. Bull Market Optimism: Proceed with CautionThe stock market has staged a remarkable comeback since spring, and many investors are feeling hopeful about the year ahead. But while optimism is natural, there's a fine line between healthy confidence and dangerous overconfidence.Just a few months ago, fear dominated the market. Now, investor sentiment has swung in the opposite direction—toward excessive optimism. History shows us that both extremes can lead to poor decision-making. Just as fear prompts panic-selling in downturns, overconfidence during bull markets can drive people to take unnecessary risks.The late 1990s provide a clear example. The dot-com bubble fueled euphoric investing in internet companies, but when the bubble burst, enormous wealth evaporated. While the internet did transform the world, many early investors paid a steep price for ignoring caution.The Risk of Projecting the PresentOptimism in the long term is typically rewarded—stocks have trended upward for more than a century despite wars, recessions, and downturns. But short-term overconfidence is dangerous. Since October 2023, the stock market has gained about 60%—roughly six years of typical returns compressed into less than two. It's unrealistic to assume such momentum will continue indefinitely.In environments like this, investors often fall into two traps:Doubling down on every dip. Rather than seeing pullbacks as a chance to pause, many rush to “buy the dip” without considering long-term goals. Abandoning diversification. When some holdings lag behind, it's tempting to dump them in favor of high-flyers like gold or crypto. This shortsightedness often backfires.Diversification: A Biblical PrincipleKing Solomon offered timeless wisdom in Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Give a portion to seven, or even to eight, for you know not what disaster may happen on earth.” Diversification is, at its core, an act of humility. Since no one knows the future, spreading investments across asset classes is the most reliable defense against both downturns and emotional decision-making.While diversification may feel “boring” during bull markets, it provides stability that helps investors stay committed to their plan when volatility inevitably returns.A strong investment strategy accounts for risk tolerance, life stage, and long-term goals. For a younger investor, this might mean a higher allocation to stocks, consistent 401(k) contributions, and the discipline to stay invested through ups and downs. For others, it may involve gradual adjustments, such as including gold or bonds. The key is making changes based on thoughtful, long-term reasoning—not fear of missing out.Confidence vs. OverconfidenceHealthy confidence comes from setting reasonable goals, understanding fundamentals, and staying the course. Overconfidence, on the other hand, assumes you can predict what's coming next—a trap no investor avoids for long.Optimism has its place, but unchecked euphoria can cloud judgment. By remembering history, practicing diversification, and committing to a steady long-term plan, investors can avoid the pitfalls of emotional decision-making and pursue lasting financial fruitfulness.If you'd like to learn more about becoming a Sound Mind Investing (SMI) member, you can visit them at SoundMindInvesting.org. On Today's Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions:I'm 72, still running my business, and I have both an IRA and a Roth that I've never touched. What's the most tax-efficient way to start taking money out while minimizing what goes to the government?I need to withdraw from two retirement accounts with about $9,000 each. They're planning to withhold 20% plus fees—around $2,200 per account. Is that normal, and what are my options since I need the cash quickly?Resources Mentioned:Faithful Steward: FaithFi's New Quarterly Magazine (Become a FaithFi Partner)Sound Mind Investing (SMI)Bull Market? Great! But Don't Get Carried Away by Joseph Slife (Sound Mind Investing Article)Wisdom Over Wealth: 12 Lessons from Ecclesiastes on MoneyLook At The Sparrows: A 21-Day Devotional on Financial Fear and AnxietyRich Toward God: A Study on the Parable of the Rich FoolFind a Certified Kingdom Advisor (CKA) or Certified Christian Financial Counselor (CertCFC)FaithFi App Remember, you can call in to ask your questions most days at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on the Moody Radio Network and American Family Radio. Visit our website at FaithFi.com where you can join the FaithFi Community and give as we expand our outreach. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of the Addict II Athlete podcast, Coach Blu Robinson engages with Coach Delmont Madison and Dr. Robiaun Charles to discuss the transformative power of athletics in youth development. They explore the importance of teamwork, the role of ego, and the mindset necessary for athletes to succeed both on and off the field. The conversation delves into the significance of learning from losses, the principles of the Athletes' Compass program, and the purpose behind coaching and mentorship. The episode emphasizes the need for reflection, personal growth, and the continuous journey of athletes as they navigate their careers and lives. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to the Attic2Athlete Podcast 01:10 Meet the Guests: Coach Delmont and Dr. Charles 04:50 The Importance of Athletics in Youth Development 09:05 Understanding and Shaping the Ego 11:58 Navigating Confidence and Overconfidence 15:55 The Role of Reflection and Introspection in Growth 21:44 The Importance of Hard Work in Sports 24:12 Learning from Losses and Building Resilience 32:14 The Growth Mindset: Failing Forward 35:58 The Athlete's Compass: Coaching for Life Beyond Sports 40:37 Purpose-Driven Coaching: Elevating Athletes' Lives   Takeaways Athletics teaches valuable life skills such as teamwork and leadership. Youth involvement in sports fosters discipline and resilience. Ego management is crucial for personal and professional growth. Mindset shifts can transform challenges into opportunities. Learning from losses is essential for long-term success. Confidence must be balanced with humility to avoid overconfidence. The Athletes' Compass program focuses on holistic athlete development. Reflection and introspection are key to understanding personal growth. Coaching provides a safe space for athletes to address their challenges. The journey of an athlete is continuous, requiring ongoing support and development.   For more infromation on Coach Delmont Madison & Dr. Robiaun Charles  https://theathletescompass.com    

The failures of Israel in the wilderness serve as warnings for us today (1 Corinthians 10). Overconfidence, idolatry, and grumbling kept them from experiencing God's best. But temptation doesn't have to lead to sin—God provides a way of escape if we will trust Him.

From Martians undone by germs to predators who insist on sporting duels, we explore the most ridiculous alien invasion tactics in fiction, and what they reveal about strategy, science, and human resilience.Join us as we journey beyond the birth of the universe to unravel the mysteries of what might have preceded the Big Bang—and whether time itself had a beginning.Visit our Website: http://www.isaacarthur.netJoin Nebula: https://go.nebula.tv/isaacarthurSupport us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/IsaacArthurSupport us on Subscribestar: https://www.subscribestar.com/isaac-arthurFacebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1583992725237264/Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Isaac_A_Arthur on Twitter and RT our future content.SFIA Discord Server: https://discord.gg/53GAShECredits:The 10 Worst Alien Invasion StrategiesEpisode 733; July 1, 2025Written, Produced & Narrated by: Isaac ArthurSelect imagery/video supplied by Getty Images Music Courtesy of Epidemic Sound http://epidemicsound.com/creator0:00 Intro0:48 10. The “Park and Wait” Strategy2:02 9. Invading a Planet That Can Kill You3:46 8. Single Point of Failure: The Hive or Control Ship5:22 7. Telegraphing Your Arrival6:50 6. Overly Convoluted Takeovers8:30 5. Broadcasting Your Weakness9:55 4. Playing Fair & Ritual Combat11:54 3. Overconfidence & Underestimating the Locals13:07 2. Hive Minds That Collapse Instantly15:03 1. Ignoring the Home Field Advantage16:06 OutroSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

From Martians undone by germs to predators who insist on sporting duels, we explore the most ridiculous alien invasion tactics in fiction, and what they reveal about strategy, science, and human resilience.Join us as we journey beyond the birth of the universe to unravel the mysteries of what might have preceded the Big Bang—and whether time itself had a beginning.Visit our Website: http://www.isaacarthur.netJoin Nebula: https://go.nebula.tv/isaacarthurSupport us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/IsaacArthurSupport us on Subscribestar: https://www.subscribestar.com/isaac-arthurFacebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1583992725237264/Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Isaac_A_Arthur on Twitter and RT our future content.SFIA Discord Server: https://discord.gg/53GAShECredits:The 10 Worst Alien Invasion StrategiesEpisode 733; July 1, 2025Written, Produced & Narrated by: Isaac ArthurSelect imagery/video supplied by Getty Images Music Courtesy of Epidemic Sound http://epidemicsound.com/creator0:00 Intro0:48 10. The “Park and Wait” Strategy2:02 9. Invading a Planet That Can Kill You3:46 8. Single Point of Failure: The Hive or Control Ship5:22 7. Telegraphing Your Arrival6:50 6. Overly Convoluted Takeovers8:30 5. Broadcasting Your Weakness9:55 4. Playing Fair & Ritual Combat11:54 3. Overconfidence & Underestimating the Locals13:07 2. Hive Minds That Collapse Instantly15:03 1. Ignoring the Home Field Advantage16:06 OutroSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.