Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Gianluca Benigno is a professor of economics at the University of Lausanne and was formerly a senior staffer and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, an economist at the Bank of England, and worked at the London School of Economics. Gianluca joins Macro Musings to talk about financial conditions in r**, his work on *The Dollar's Imperial Circle,* and more. David and Gianluca also discuss the importance of liquidity in a New Keynesian framework, the origins and purpose of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, the “Global Financial Resource Curse,” and a lot more.   Transcript for this week's episode   Gianluca's Twitter: @BenignoGianluca Gianluca's website   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Dollar's Imperial Circle* by Gianluca Benigno, Ozge Akinci, Serra Pelin, and Jon Turek   *The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R*** by Gianluca Benigno, Ozge Akinci, Marco Del Negro, and Albert Queralto   *Interest, Reserves, and Prices* by Gianluca Benigno and Pierpaolo Benigno   *The Financial Resource Curse* by Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro   *The Global Financial Resource Curse* by Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro and Martin Wolf

Dan McDowell is an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, and he is the author of a new book titled, *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar.* Dan joins Macro Musings to talk about this new book and the prospects for de-dollarization around the world. David and Dan also discuss the mechanics and effectiveness of financial sanctions, the renminbi as a rival to the dollar, Russia and Turkey as case studies, and more.   Transcript for this week's episode   Dan's Twitter: @daniel_mcdowell Dan's website Dan's Syracuse University profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar* by Dan McDowell   *What's Driving Dollar Doomsaying?* by Paul Krugman   *Renminbi's Share of Trade Finance Doubles Since Start of Ukraine War* by Hudson Lockett and Cheng Leng

Jeanna Smialek is a reporter who covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for the New York Times, and is the author of a new book titled, *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On a New Age of Crisis.* Jeanna is also a returning guest to Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about her book and its implications for the future of the Federal Reserve system. David and Jeanna also discuss the credit allocation vs. liquidity support debate, the Fed's definition of price stability, the Bank Term Funding Program, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week's episode   Jeanna's Twitter: @jeannasmialek Jeanna's New York Times profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes on a New Age of Crisis* by Jeanna Smialek

Nathan Tankus is a popular writer for a newsletter titled, *Notes on the Crises* and is the research director of the Modern Money Network. Nathan is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about modern monetary theory and the debt ceiling. Specifically, David and Nathan discuss the future of MMT, the case for minting the trillion dollar coin, the prospects of issuing Federal Reserve securities, the history of the Fed's operating procedures, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week's episode   Nathan's Twitter: @NathanTankus Nathan's Substack, Notes on the Crises Nathan's Modern Money Network profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The New Monetary Policy: Reimagining Demand Management and Price Stability in the 21st Century* by Nathan Tankus   *Federal Reserve Issued Securities: Not Such A Crazy Idea After All* by Nathan Tankus   *The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Operating Procedures Have Come Full Circle: What Does That Mean for the Post-SVB FOMC Meeting?* by Nathan Tankus   *An MMT Response on What Causes Inflation* by Nathan Tankus, Rohan Grey, and Scott Fulwiler   *Issues Raised by the Credit Crunch and Global Recession* by Janet Yellen

Brian Sack was recently the Director of Global Economics at the D.E. Shaw Group, and prior to that, he was the manager of the System Open Market Account or SOMA and the head of the Markets Group at the New York Federal Reserve bank, where he managed the Fed's balance sheet. Brian joins Macro Musings to talk about the central bank's balance sheet, its operating system, and his work at the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. Specifically, David and Brian discuss the current state of the Fed's balance sheet, Brian's theory of QE, how to improve the effectiveness of the floor system, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Brian's LinkedIn profile Brian's Google Scholar archive   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Monetary Policy with Abundant Liquidity: A New Operating Framework for the Federal Reserve* by Joseph Gagnon and Brian Sack   *Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Lower Bound: An Empirical Assessment* by Ben Bernanke, Vincent Reinhart, and Brian Sack

Mark Calabria was the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and prior to that, he was formerly a chief economist for Vice President Mike Pence. Mark is also a previous guest of Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book titled, Shelter From the Storm: How a COVID Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted. Specifically, David and Mark discuss Mark's time as the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the relief programs his agency ushered through during the peak of the COVID crisis, the history and handling of Fannie and Freddie, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Mark's Twitter: @MarkCalabria Mark's Cato Institute profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Shelter From the Storm: How a COVID Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted* by Mark Calabria

George Hall is a professor of economics at Brandeis University, and was formerly an economist at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, George rejoins the podcast to talk about how the US handled the surge in debt resulting from World War II, how COVID changed government financing, his thoughts on the debt ceiling crisis, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George's Twitter: @George_J_Hall George's Brandeis profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Brief History of US Debt Limits Before 1939* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent   *Financing Big US Federal Expenditures Surges: COVID-19 and Earlier US Wars* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent   *Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent

George Hall is a professor of economics at Brandeis University, and was formerly an economist at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. George has written widely on the history of U.S. public finance, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about the history of the U.S. national debt, including the most recent surge resulting from the pandemic. David and George also discuss how a government goes about funding itself, two different models of expenditure financing, the Revolutionary War and Civil War as case studies, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George's Twitter: @George_J_Hall George's Brandeis profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Financing Big US Federal Expenditures Surges: COVID-19 and Earlier US Wars* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent   *Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent   *Three World Wars: Fiscal-monetary Consequences* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent

Bill Nelson is a chief economist and executive vice president of the Bank Policy Institute and was previously a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS working groups on the design of liquidity regulations and is a previous guest of the podcast. Bill rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the Fed's balance sheet, and in particular, the impact that the Fed's response to the recent banking turmoil has had on its size, as well as the role being played by the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility. David and Bill also discuss the changes in collateral treatment brought about by the banking crisis, the invocation of 13(3) for the Bank Term Funding Program, the recent volume of discount window lending, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Bill's BPI profile BPI's Twitter: @bankpolicy   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Why is the Federal Reserve Abetting a Drain of Deposits from Banks?* by Bill Nelson and Greg Baer   *I Don't Know Why She Swallowed a Fly* by Bill Nelson   *The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Bill Nelson and Andy Levin

Kate Judge is a professor of law at Columbia Law School and the editor of the Journal of Financial Regulation, and Peter Conti-Brown is an associate professor of financial regulation and the co-director of the Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation at the University of Pennsylvania. Both are also returning guests to the podcast, and they rejoin Macro Musings to talk about the banking panic of 2023 and the lessons learned so far. Specifically, Kate, Peter, and David discuss how the scene was set for this recent banking crisis, the quality of the policy response, how to reform the banking system moving forward, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Kate's Twitter: @ProfKateJudge Kate's Columbia Law profile   Peter's Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter's UPenn profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Towards an Administrative Law of Central Banking* by Peter Conti-Brown, Yair Listokin, and Nicholas Parrillo   *Money Market Funds Swell by More Than $286bn Amid Deposit Flight* by Brooke Masters, Marriet Clarfelt, and Kate Duguid   *'The Fed Has Mishandled This About 7 Different Ways': SVB Rescue Sparks Backlash* by Victoria Guida   *Scrap the Bank Deposit Insurance Limit* by Lev Menand and Morgan Ricks

Brian Riedl is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute where he focuses on budget, tax, and economic policy issues. Previously, he worked for six years as chief economist for Senator Rob Portman of Ohio and as staff director of the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth. He also served as director of budget and spending for Marco Rubio's presidential campaign and was the lead architect of the 10-year deficit reduction plan for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. Brian joins Macro Musings to talk about the outlook of US public finance and the tough choices ahead. Specifically, David and Brian also discuss the surging US debt to GDP ratio, the shortfalls of Republican and Democratic plans for budget reform, Brian's preferable policy path forward, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Brian's Twitter: @Brian_Riedl Brian's Manhattan Institute profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Biden's Promises on Social Security and Medicare Have No Basis in Reality* by Brian Riedl   *Biden Is Set to Detail Nearly $3 Trillion in Measures to Reduce Deficits* by Jim Tankersley

Steven Kelly is a senior research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and is a previous guest of the podcast. Steven rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the recent bank collapses at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature, the government response, and what this means for financial stability policy in the present and future. David and Steven also discuss the role that interest rate risk and macro policy played in SVB's failure, the debate over the systemic nature of this crisis, the implementation and use of the Bank Term Funding Program, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Steven's Twitter: @StevenKelly49 Steven's Substack: Without Warning   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   Steven Kelly Twitter thread on SVB   Daniela Gabor Twitter thread on SVB   *Was This a Bailout? Skeptics Descend on Silicon Valley Bank Response* by Jeanna Smialek and Alan Rappeport   *Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs?* by Erica Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru

Derek Tang is the CEO and co-founder of LH Meyer, and is part of the research team based in Washington, D.C. where he forecasts Fed policy developments, provides bespoke policy analysis to institutional investors, and also closely monitors and forecasts the Fed's balance sheet. Derek joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Fed policy, Fed politics, and what to expect in 2023 and 2024. Specifically, David and Derek discuss numerous personnel changes at the Fed, the future of the central bank's balance sheet, the upcoming Congressional agenda for the Fed, what the next framework review has in store, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Derek's Twitter: @macroderek Derek's LH Meyer bio   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment* by Janice Eberly, James Stock, and Jonathan Wright   *The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Andy Levin and Bill Nelson

Joey Politano is an economist and commentator who writes regularly on his Substack newsletter titled, Apricitas Economics. Joey is also a previous guest of the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the state of the US economy, inflation, Fed policy, and much more. Specifically, David and Joey discuss the results of the Fed's ongoing rate hikes, the narrative that higher rates may lead to higher inflation, conducting monetary policy in a supply constrained economy, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Joey's Twitter: @JosephPolitano Joey's Substack: Apricitas Economics   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *America's 2022 Slowdown* by Joey Politano   *The US Labor Market Was Stronger Than We Thought* by Joey Politano

Peter Conti-Brown is an associate professor of financial regulation and legal studies at the University of Pennsylvania and is a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution. Peter is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and rejoins the podcast to talk about some of the big legal and regulatory issues facing the financial and monetary policy space today. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the debt ceiling crisis, Fed master accounts, the current state of cryptocurrency, the implications of the Federal Reserve Accountability Act, and the most significant court cases facing the central bank today.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Peter's Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter's UPenn profile The Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation's website   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *The Contingent Origins of Financial Legislation* by Peter Conti-Brown and Brian Feinstein   *Let Crypto Burn* by Stephen Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz   *Mint the Coin? Buy Back Bonds? 7 ‘Gimmicks' for Dodging the Debt Limit* by Jeff Stein   Peter Conti-Brown's Bonus Segment with David Beckworth

David Wilcox is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and is the Director of Economic Research at Bloomberg Economics. Previously, David served for many years on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board, as deputy director from 2001 to 2011 and as director from 2011 to 2018 of the Division of Research and Statistics. In the latter role, he functioned as the chief economist of the division, a senior advisor to three successive chairs of the board, and the division leader for strategic direction as well as chief manager. David joins Macro Musings to talk about a recent article he wrote titled, *The Cost of the US Going Over the Fiscal Cliff is Trauma, Then Unending Pain.* David and David also discuss the debt ceiling issue more broadly, including the severity and timing of a technical default, the two big economic shocks that would result from a default, the possible solutions to pursue in the face of the this debacle, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   David Wilcox's Twitter: @D_W_Wilcox David Wilcox's PIIE profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *The Cost of US Going Over Fiscal Cliff Is Trauma Then Unending Pain* by David Wilcox   *Fiscal Policy Under Low Interest Rates* by Olivier Blanchard   *Mint the Coin? Buy Back Bonds? 7 ‘Gimmicks' for Dodging the Debt Limit* by Jeff Stein

Julie Hill is a professor of law at the University of Alabama's School of Law and she specializes in the study of the regulation of financial institutions. Julie also has a new paper out titled, *Opening a Federal Reserve Account,* and she joins Macro Musings to talk about the history and recent developments surrounding Fed master accounts. David and Julie also discuss the legal basis for these accounts and the numerous case studies surrounding them, including the Narrow Bank, Reserve Trust, Custodia, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Julie's Twitter: @ProfJulieHill Julie's Alabama Law profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Opening a Federal Reserve Account* by Julie Hill

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss new narratives around shadow banking and the financial crisis, the fiscal cost of large central bank balance sheets, the return of secular stagnation, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *A Monetary Policy Primer: Parts 1-12* by George Selgin   *Why Shadow Banking Didn't Cause the Financial Crisis* by Norbert Michel   *The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Andy Levin and Bill Nelson   *The Monetary Executive* by Christina Parajon Skinner   *Secular Stagnation is Not Over* by Olivier Blanchard   *The Hard Road to a Soft Landing: Evidence from a (Modestly) Nonlinear Structural Model* by Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman   *Brazil and Argentina to Start Preparations for a Common Currency* by Michael Stott and Lucinda Elliott   *Floor Systems for Implementing Monetary Policy: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic* by Aleksander Berentsen, Christopher Waller, and Alessandro Marchesiani   *Fallen Heroes: Central Banks Face Credibility Crisis as Losses Pile Up* by Johanna Treeck   *SNB Will Shrink Balance Sheet After Record Loss, Citigroup Says* by Bastian Benrath   *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings

Michael Strain is the Director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. Michael rejoins the podcast to talk about the looming debt ceiling crisis and his recent article on the issue titled, *Averting a Debt-Ceiling Disaster.* David and Michael specifically discuss the background, history and recent events leading up to the current crisis, how to impose fiscal discipline in a low interest rate world, solutions the US government could pursue, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Michael's Twitter: @MichaelRStrain Michael's website Michael's AEI profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Averting a Debt-Ceiling Disaster* by Michael Strain     *House Republicans Prepare Emergency Plan for Breaching Debt Limit* by Jeff Stein, Leigh Ann Caldwell, and Theodoric Meyer   *Extraordinary Measures* by the Bipartisan Policy Center

John Roberts is a 36-year veteran of the Federal Reserve Board and mostly recently was the Deputy Associate Director in the Division of Research and Statistics, overseeing the board's domestic macroeconomic modeling efforts. From 2017-2019, John also served as a special advisor to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, where his responsibilities includes preparation of speeches, providing advice on monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and regulatory attending FOMC meetings. John joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Fed, macroeconomic modeling at the institution, his work on the zero lower bound, and current Fed policy. Specifically, David and John also discuss the art of interpreting the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the future of modeling for policymakers at the Fed, the state of FAIT at the central bank, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   John's blog John's paper archive   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World* by Michael Kiley and John Roberts   *Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment* by Ben Bernanke, Michael Kiley, and John Roberts   *Unconventional Monetary Policy According to HANK* by Eric Sims, Jing Cynthia Wu, & Ji Zhang

Paul Tucker is a 33-year veteran of the Bank of England, where among other positions, he served as both a member and deputy governor of the Monetary Policy Committee. Currently, Paul is a research fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard. He is also a returning guest to the podcast, and rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his new book, *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World.* Specifically, David and Paul also discuss China's push for reserve currency status, how to sell international legitimacy to the general public, the geopolitical advantage of trade deals, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Paul's Harvard profile Paul's website   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order* by Paul Tucker   *Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State* by Paul Tucker   *Quantitative Easing, Monetary Policy Implementation, and the Public Finances* by Paul Tucker   *Biden Needs Allies to Keep China and Russia in Check. Here's How to Do it.* by Sebastian Mallaby

Victoria Guida is an economics reporter for Politico where she covers monetary policy and financial regulatory policy. Victoria is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and she rejoins the podcast to talk about the big developments at the Fed and in the financial regulatory policy space in 2022 and what we can expect in 2023. Specifically, David and Victoria discuss personnel changes and trading scandals at the Fed, the debate surrounding Fed Master Accounts, how to improve the liquidity of the Treasury market, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Victoria's Politico profile Victoria's Twitter: @vtg2   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Victoria Guida on the Politics of Monetary Policy* by the Macro Musings podcast

Martin Chorzempa is a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and is the author of a new book titled, *The Cashless Revolution: China's Reinvention of Money and the End of America's Domination of Finance and Technology.* Martin joins Macro Musings to talk about this book as well as the history of Chinese fintech development, the basics of super apps in China, challenges to the Chinese fintech revolution, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Martin's PIIE profile Martin's Twitter: @ChorzempaMartin   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *The Cashless Revolution: China's Reinvention of Money and the End of America's Domination of Finance and Technology* by Martin Chorzempa   *Letter From Apple Supplier Foxconn's Founder Prodded China to Ease Zero-Covid Rules* by Keith Zhai and Yang Jie

For this special end of the year edition of Macro Musings, Heather Long, Ryan Avent, and Cardiff Garcia rejoin the podcast to reflect on the biggest economic surprises and stories of the past few years, while giving their outlook and predictions for the future. Heather Long is an editorial writer and columnist for the Washington Post, Ryan Avent is the trade and international economic editor for the Economist Magazine, and Cardiff Garcia is a veteran journalist for the Financial Times and NPR as well as the host of the New Bazaar podcast and the co-founder of Bazaar Audio. Specifically, this returning panel of guests discuss the major economic themes throughout the pandemic, the most overrated and underreported stories that have dominated the headlines over the past few years, what issues are primed for prominence within the next decade, and a lot more.     Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Support the podcast by making a donation during this holiday season!   Heather's Washington Post profile Heather's Twitter: @byHeatherLong   Ryan's Economist profile Ryan's Twitter: @ryanavent   Cardiff's Twitter: @CardiffGarcia Bazaar Audio's website   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Measuring Monetary Policy: the NGDP Gap* by David Beckworth   *Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China* by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley   *David Beckworth on the Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by the Macro Musings Podcast   *Ryan Avent, Cardiff Garcia, and Heather Long on Lessons from the Great Recession* by the Macro Musings Podcast

Tomas Hirst is a macro analyst in the Strategy and Allocation division at LMI and formerly worked at Credit Sights, an independent fixed income research company, where he led the European strategy team covering Euro and sterling credit markets. Prior to that, he also worked at Bloomberg and the World Economic Forum in Geneva. Tomas joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Eurozone economy, the ECB, and the future of the Euro project. Specifically, David and Tomas discuss the macroeconomic state of post-pandemic Europe, the rationale behind the ECB's rate hikes, the inflation expectations conundrum within the Eurozone, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Support the podcast by making a donation during this holiday season!   Tomas's blog Tomas's Twitter: @tomashirstecon   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *The ECB's New Inflation Target One Year On* by Ursel Baumann, Christophe Kamps, and Manfred Kremer

Joe Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Joe is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to take a look back on the past few years and to discuss his new paper on excess unemployment over the past 25 years. Specifically, David and Joe also discuss the movement of the natural rate of unemployment over time, alternative explanations for the flattening of the Phillips curve, policy implications for the Fed moving forward, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Support the podcast by making a donation during this holiday season!   Joe's PIIE profile Joe's Twitter: @GagnonMacro   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *25 Years of Excess Unemployment in Advanced Economies: Lessons for Monetary Policy* by Joseph Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev   *The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence form U.S. States* by Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreno, Emi Nakamura, and Jon Steinsson   *The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation* by George Akerlof, William Dickens, and George Perry   *Measuring Monetary Policy: the NGDP Gap* by David Beckworth

Noah Smith is a former columnist for Bloomberg and is now a popular writer at his own Noahpinion Substack. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, Noah rejoins the podcast to talk about the nuts and bolts of macroeconomic modeling. Specifically, David and Noah discuss why macroeconomics is still in its infancy, how we can improve macro modeling moving forward, how to spot “nutty” macroeconomic theories, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Noah's Substack: Noahpinion Noah's Bloomberg archive Noah's Twitter: @Noahpinion    David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Macroeconomics is Still in Its Infancy* by Noah Smith   *Nutty Macroeconomic Theories Will Ruin Your Country's Economy* by Noah Smith

Noah Smith is a former columnist for Bloomberg and is now a popular writer at his own Noahpinion Substack. Noah is also a returning guest to the podcast, and rejoins Macro Musings for a wide ranging discussion on some of the recent issues he's been covering on his Substack, including China, social change in the US, recent macro developments, and much more. Noah and David also discuss the façade of Xi Jinping's leadership, the elite overproduction hypothesis, how Fukuyama's *End of History* thesis can be applied today, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Noah's Substack: Noahpinion Noah's Bloomberg archive Noah's Twitter: @Noahpinion   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Elite Overproduction Hypothesis* by Noah Smith   *Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China* by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley   *Book Review: “Danger Zone”* by Noah Smith   *Is China Heading Toward Another Tiananmen Square Moment?* by Lili Pike and Tom Nagorski

Hugh Rockoff is a professor of economics at Rutgers University and has done extensive work in U.S. monetary history. He joins the show to discuss the criteria for an ideal monetary union and argues that the U.S. didn't really become an optimal currency area until the 1930s. David and Hugh then discuss whether a present-day example, the Eurozone, fits these criteria. They also talk about interesting chapters in U.S. monetary history, including the Civil War, the Free Banking Era, and the bimetallism debate of the late 1800s.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Check out our new Macro Musings merch here, and use the promo code NGDP for 10% off!   Hugh's Rutgers profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:    *History of the American Economy* by Hugh Rockoff and Gary Walton   *How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?* by Hugh Rockoff   *"The Wizard of Oz" as a Monetary Allegory* by Hugh Rockoff   *The Free Banking Era: A Re-Examination* by Hugh Rockoff

In this special episode of Macro Musings, David Beckworth and Patrick Horan join guest host Carola Binder to discuss their newest paper, *The Fate of FAIT: Salvaging the Fed's Framework.* Patrick Horan is a research fellow in the Mercatus Center's Monetary Policy Program and Carola Binder is an associate professor of economics at Haverford College as well as a visiting scholar at the Mercatus Center. In addition to their paper, Pat and David also talk about the basics of flexible average inflation targeting, how it compares to temporary price level targeting, the differences between the Fed's old and new frameworks, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Check out our new Macro Musings merch here, and use the promo code NGDP for 10% off!   Patrick's Twitter: @Pat_Horan92 Patrick's Mercatus profile   Carola's Twitter: @cconces Carola's Haverford site Carola's Mercatus profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Fate of FAIT: Salvaging the Fed's Framework* by David Beckworth and Patrick Horan   *2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy* by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors   *Fed Framework Holds Central Bank Hostage* by Mohamed El-Erian   *Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field* by David Beckworth and Josh Hendrickson

Ethan Ilzetzki is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research fellow with the Center for Economic Policy Research. Ethan is also a returning guest to the show, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the international implications of Fed Policy and the strong dollars as well as Ethan's thoughts on business cycle theory in light of the recent inflation surge. David and Ethan also discuss Ethan's takeaways from the UK crisis, how to evaluate and contextualize monetary policy shocks, the contemporary applications of the fiscal theory of the price level, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Check out our new Macro Musings merch here, and use the promo code NGDP for 10% off!   Ethan's Twitter: @ilzetzki Ethan's website Ethan's LSE profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *UK Financial Crisis of 2022: Retrospective Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations* by Ethan Ilzetzki   *Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff   *Inflation as a Fiscal Limit* by Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi   *The Global Financial Cycle* by Helene Rey and Silvia Miranda-Agrippino

Megan Greene is a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University and is the global chief economist at Kroll. Megan is also a contributing editor and columnist for the Financial Times and is a returning guest to the podcast. She rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about a recent article she has written titled, *UK Market Turmoil is a Harbinger of Global Events to Come.* David and Megan also discuss the basics of what caused the UK's recent crisis, how persistent inflation continues to impact the global economy, the current outlook for international energy production, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Megan's website Megan's Kroll profile Megan's Twitter: @economistmeg   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *UK Market Turmoil is a Harbinger of Global Events to Come* by Megan Greene   *The World is Starting to Hate the Fed* by Edward Luce

Yesha Yadav is a law professor and associate dean of Vanderbilt Law School. Yesha works on banking and financial regulation, securities regulation, the law of money and payment system, and is a returning guest to the podcast. She rejoins Macro Musings to talk about recent developments in the Treasury market and the prospects for reform. David and Yesha also discuss the future of CBDC in the US, the recent economic crisis in the UK, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Yesha's Vanderbilt Law profile: https://law.vanderbilt.edu/bio/yesha-yadav Yesha's Google Scholar archive: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Dn5cmSQAAAAJ&hl=en   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Failed Promise of Treasuries in Financial Regulation* by Yesha Yadav and Pradeep Yadav   *The Broken Bond Market* by Yesha Yadav and Jonathan Brogaard   *Markets Didn't Oust Truss. The Bank of England Did.* by Narayana Kocherlakota   *Treasuries Liquidity Problem Exposes Fed to ‘Biggest Nightmare'* by Liz McCormick   *Yellen Flags Potential for Buybacks of Treasury Securities* by Christopher Condon   *The Squeeze That Has the US Treasury Thinking About Buying Back Bonds* by Alexandra Harris   *Hedge Funds Facing Tighter SEC Clearing Rules for Treasuries* by Lydia Beyoud and Alexandra Harris   *Geithner-Led Group Faults Fed for Slow Work on Treasuries Market* by Liz McCormick   *All-to-All Trading in the U.S. Treasury Market* by the New York Fed staff   *Toby Nangle on What We Just Learned From Gilt Market Madness* by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal

Peter Ganong is an associate professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about his work on the dynamism and resiliency of the US economy. Peter and David also discuss the income convergence story in the US, how to address increased housing costs, the economic effects of pandemic response measures, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Peter's Twitter: @p_ganong Peter's UChicago profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *Why Has Regional Income Convergence in the U.S. Declined?* by Peter Ganong and Daniel Shoag   *Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages? A New Method for Causal Attribution* by Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel   *Liquidity Versus Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession* by Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel   *Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data* by Peter Ganong, Fiona Greig, Pascal Noel, Daniel Sullivan, and Joseph Vavra   *Housing Demand and Remote Work* by John Mondragon and Johannes Wieland   *Household Income & Spending* Research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute

Bill Nelson is the chief economist and executive vice president at the Bank Policy Institute. He previously worked as a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. Bill has also worked closely with the BIS working groups on the design of liquidity regulations and is a returning guest of the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his new note that is titled, *Bank Examiner Preferences are Obstructing Monetary Policy*. David and Bill also discuss how the Fed's forward guidance is affecting recent market turmoil, how to change the mindset of bank examiners and the public, why the Fed should look into establishing a committed liquidity facility, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Bill's BPI profile BPI's Twitter: @bankpolicy   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox   Related Links:   *Bank Examiner Preferences are Obstructing Monetary Policy* by Bill Nelson   *Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Quantitative Easing* by Andrew Levin, Brian Lu, and Bill Nelson   FRED Graph: *Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level*   *The Global Financial Cycle* by Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Helene Rey

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and is also a long-time returning guest of Macro Musings. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, George rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book project on the Great Depression titled, False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery. Specifically, David and George discuss the broad contours of the Great Depression, including its causes as well as the pros and cons of the New Deal solutions that followed.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   Macro Musings: *Jason Taylor on the Great Depression, World War II, and “The Big Push”*   Macro Musings: *Doug Irwin on the History of US Trade Policy*   Macro Musings: *Sebastian Edwards on FDR, Gold, and the Great Depression*   *American Default: The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and the Battle over Gold* by Sebastian Edwards

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest of the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings once again to discuss their top three articles from the past few weeks related to macroeconomics and monetary policy. Specifically, David and George talk about Jerome Powell's recent criticism of nominal GDP targeting, Lael Brainard's recent comments regarding FedNow and real-time payments, the debate surrounding the Fed's campaign against inflation, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato profile    David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *A Conversation Between Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Peter Goettler* via the Cato Institute   *The Return of Inflation Makes Deficits More Dangerous* by Greg Ip   *Jerome Powell's Dilemma: What if the Drivers of Inflation Are Here to Stay?* by Nick Timiraos   *Primer: What is a Real-time Payments System, and Who Should Operate it?* by Thomas Wade   *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth   *Anchors Aweigh: The Transition from Commodity Money to Fiat Money in Western Economies* by Angela Redish

Bill English is a professor at Yale University, a former senior Fed staffer, and a veteran of the Bank for International Settlements. Bill joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Federal Reserve, recent Fed developments, and a paper he co-authored titled, “What If the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of Its Quantitative Easing?” David and Bill also discuss the Fed's recent low-inflation mandate, the QE effectiveness debate, and why we should and shouldn't be concerned about Fed balance sheet losses.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Bill's Yale profile Bill's Federal Reserve profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn   Macro Musings: *Donald Kohn on Fed Policy from the 1970s to Today*   *Think of Powell as Volcker's Wannabe Second Coming* by John Authers

Andrew Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a former long-time Fed official. Andy is also a previous guest of Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about the costs and benefits of the Fed's QE4 program. David and Andy also discuss the Fed's recent record on inflation, QE4's impact on market functioning, the present and future of the Fed's balance sheet, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Andrew's Dartmouth profile Andrew's NBER archive   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links: *Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Quantitative Easing* by Andrew Levin, Brian Lu, and William Nelson   *Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve's Policy Strategy and Communications* by Michael Bordo, Andrew Levin, and Mickey Levy   *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn

Steven Kelly is a senior research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability. Steven joins David on Macro Musings to discuss his work on financial stability and the role the Federal Reserve plays in it. Specifically, David and Steven discuss the Fed's evolving role in niche financial markets such as commodities and derivatives markets, what Section 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act says about the Fed's basis to engage in financial markets, proposals to improve the Fed's Standing Repo Facility (SRF), the future of stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in financial markets, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Steven's Twitter: @StevenKelly49 Steven's Substack: Without Warning   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   The Reserve (podcast) hosted by Kaleb Nygaard   New Bagehot Project, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS)   “The Fed As Derivatives Dealer of Last Resort?” by Steven Kelly   “Could the Fed Rescue Commodities Markets?” by Steven Kelly   “Improving the Standing Repo Facility” by Steven Kelly   “Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed's Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules that Govern Them” by Lev Menand   The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis by Lev Menand   “Larry Ball on the Lehman Brothers Collapse and Its Role in the Great Recession”, Macro Musings podcast episode (2018)

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to look back on his contributions to monetary policy research with the Mercatus Center and elsewhere, as well as discuss his upcoming book, Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy. In particular, Scott and David discuss how the Fed's monetary policy mistakes in 2008 impacted the direction of Scott's research, the theory and prospects