Eye On The Market

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Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

Michael Cembalest


    • May 27, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
    • every other week NEW EPISODES
    • 15m AVG DURATION
    • 117 EPISODES

    4.6 from 225 ratings Listeners of Eye On The Market that love the show mention: data, market, research, entertaining, great, cembalest.


    Ivy Insights

    The Eye On The Market podcast is a highly informative and insightful show that delves into the current events affecting global markets. Hosted by Mike Cembalest, this podcast offers a unique perspective and presents smart, factual analysis that is both engaging and educational.

    One of the best aspects of The Eye On The Market podcast is the wealth of knowledge and expertise that Mike Cembalest brings to each episode. He has an in-depth understanding of the market and presents information in a clear and concise manner. Listeners can expect to gain valuable insights into various topics related to finance, economics, and global markets.

    Another great aspect of this podcast is its ability to provide a different perspective on current events. Cembalest often offers unique insights and challenges conventional thinking, allowing listeners to consider alternative viewpoints. This adds depth to the discussions and encourages critical thinking.

    Furthermore, Cembalest's delivery style makes the podcast enjoyable to listen to. His ironic wit adds a touch of humor to what could potentially be overwhelming data-driven discussions. This not only keeps listeners engaged but also helps break down complex concepts into more digestible information.

    However, one potential drawback of The Eye On The Market podcast is that it may not be suitable for beginners or those with limited knowledge in finance and economics. Some episodes may contain technical jargon or assume prior understanding of certain concepts. While this can be overcome with further research or listening to previous episodes, it may deter some listeners from fully appreciating the content.

    In conclusion, The Eye On The Market podcast is an excellent resource for anyone interested in gaining deeper insights into global markets and understanding how current events impact financial landscapes. With its smart analysis, unique perspective, and entertaining delivery style, this show stands out as one of the best podcasts in its genre. Whether you are an experienced investor or just starting out, there is something valuable to learn from each episode of The Eye On The Market.



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    Latest episodes from Eye On The Market

    Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill

    Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2025 16:29


    A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn. View video here

    Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming

    Play Episode Listen Later May 13, 2025 29:49


    With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began. View video here

    Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE's impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker

    Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 26:07


    Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE's impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation of estimated savings, negative fiscal feedback loops from firing IRS workers, conflicts of interest and possible consequences of DOGE spending cuts. Also: the latest data from the Trump Tracker and some comments on the Spanish power outage. View video here

    Redacted

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 2, 2025 13:00


    Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that's fit to print, with only a few minor redactions. View video here

    Fifty Days of Grey

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 12, 2025 18:07


    Here's the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It's the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law. While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate with more of the former than the latter. The only surprise is that it's happening before 50 days has passed since the inauguration. View video here  

    Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2025 19:58


    Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy. View transcript View video here

    From Here to Eternity

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2025 10:30


    From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump's economic, market and constitutional milestones Whether you're elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. View video here

    Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2025 19:45


    Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there's not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples. View video here

    Eye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 1, 2025 36:13


    Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list. View the video here

    The Year of Living Dangerously

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2024 16:34


    I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here's what they said. View video here

    "Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2024 20:02


    A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump's victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.

    The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2024 14:14


    For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run. Click here to read the full PDF and view the video.

    Mind the Gap: an historically polarized US election

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2024 29:24


    Candidate policy comparisons in an historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today's note looks at candidate policy differences and implications for investors: government spending, taxation, tariffs, trade, immigration, regulation, NATO, energy, price controls and the Electoral College. We conclude with analysis of the China stimulus package, which might have a better chance of succeeding than recent failed efforts.

    A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2024 25:26


    NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending. View video here

    There's no place like home

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2024 18:38


    A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google's “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for distressed office investors. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why. View video here

    The Lion in Winter

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2024 16:43


    From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage. View video here

    The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2024 19:51


    The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden's LNG export moratorium.

    A Piece of the Action

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2024 9:09


    Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sport betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time. View video here

    Animal Farm

    Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2024 23:33


    With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it's a good time to review agriculture from an investor's perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu's impact on agriculture and the food supply. View transcript View video here

    Cicadian Rhythms

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2024 23:31


    Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan's structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta's latest open source model View video here

    The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 2, 2024 19:14


    The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video here

    Electravision

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2024 22:12


    This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. View video here

    Five Easy Pieces

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 8, 2024 19:11


    Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities. View video here

    Medical Complications

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 23, 2024 11:49


    This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality. View video here

    Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2024 15:52


    A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video here

    Outlook 2024 Deep Dive: The Fats Dominoes

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2024 18:14


    The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video here

    Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 1, 2024 24:23


    Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024. View the video here.

    It's Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2023 21:12


    A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit View video here

    Not That 70's Show

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2023 26:26


    Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript View video here

    New York, Just Like I Pictured It

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 16, 2023 22:40


    Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness. View transcript View video here View deck here

    What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2023 17:43


    I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. View transcript View video and charts here

    The Rasputin Effect

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2023 20:55


    Global resilience to higher rates View transcript View video and charts here

    Mr. Toad's Wild Ride

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2023 12:27


    The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

    Letters to the Editor

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2023 16:17


    Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it's time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron's, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

    Too Long at the Fair

    Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2023 9:30


    Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart references

    The Places We Could Go

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 25, 2023 16:11


    Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China's reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.

    Frankenstein's Monster

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 10, 2023 18:44


    Frankenstein's Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed's monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

    Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 28, 2023 18:46


    Renewables are growing but don't always behave the way you want them to.  This year's topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now. View transcript with chart references

    Winter Heating

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2023 16:28


    The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans. View transcript with chart references

    American Gothic

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2023 9:20


    The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it View transcript with the chart references

    The End of the Affair

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 2, 2023 26:49


    The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins

    Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2022 15:43


    Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule

    A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2022 14:57


    In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40's in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P 500 Index reached in mid-October could actually mark the low for the cycle; such a scenario should not be discounted entirely, and would be consistent with market history.

    Reruns

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2022 15:33


    Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone else

    Arrested Development

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 14:19


    Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force

    On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2022 18:42


    Three topics in this month's Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill's projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration's revenue targets.

    Independence Days

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2022 18:29


    Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia's natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry

    The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2022 22:32


    Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one

    The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating

    Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2022 15:47


    Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new buildings?

    Bear Market Barometers

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2022 10:44


    The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.

    Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Electrification

    Play Episode Listen Later May 11, 2022 19:33


    We continue with three topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users, the transmission quagmire and bans on combustion of fossil fuels for heating in favor of electric heat pumps

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