Ryan discusses a parabolic move in stocks led by what is now being called the ‘Magnificent 7' stocks. But in reality they should really be called the FOMO 7. Be sure to check out my Swing-Trading offering through Patreon that goes hand-in-hand with my podcast, offering all of the research, charts and technical analysis on the stock market and individual stocks, not to mention my personal watch-lists and regular updates on the most popular stocks, including FAANG stocks, Microsoft and Tesla. This is provided each and every week! Check it out now at: www.swingtradingthestockmarket.com
1/4: The Case for Nukes: How We Can Beat Global Warming and Create a Free, Open, and Magnificent Future by Robert Zubrin (Author) https://www.amazon.com/Case-Nukes-Global-Warming-Magnificent/dp/1736386069/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=UeGVv&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=143-0258134-6610437&pd_rd_wg=sJV8b&pd_rd_r=0137d795-3a42-44c6-84c4-74819fbb82e3&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk The Case for Nukes is a unique book. In it, world-renowned nuclear and aerospace engineer Dr. Robert Zubrin explains how nuclear power works and how much it has to offer humanity. He debunks the toxic falsehoods that have been spread to dissuade us from using it by variously the ignorant, the fearful, the fanatical, and by cynical political operatives bought and paid for by competing interests. 1957 Nevada Test Site
2/4: The Case for Nukes: How We Can Beat Global Warming and Create a Free, Open, and Magnificent Future by Robert Zubrin (Author) https://www.amazon.com/Case-Nukes-Global-Warming-Magnificent/dp/1736386069/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=UeGVv&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=143-0258134-6610437&pd_rd_wg=sJV8b&pd_rd_r=0137d795-3a42-44c6-84c4-74819fbb82e3&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk The Case for Nukes is a unique book. In it, world-renowned nuclear and aerospace engineer Dr. Robert Zubrin explains how nuclear power works and how much it has to offer humanity. He debunks the toxic falsehoods that have been spread to dissuade us from using it by variously the ignorant, the fearful, the fanatical, and by cynical political operatives bought and paid for by competing interests. 1979 Three Mile Island, PA
3/4: The Case for Nukes: How We Can Beat Global Warming and Create a Free, Open, and Magnificent Future by Robert Zubrin (Author) https://www.amazon.com/Case-Nukes-Global-Warming-Magnificent/dp/1736386069/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=UeGVv&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=143-0258134-6610437&pd_rd_wg=sJV8b&pd_rd_r=0137d795-3a42-44c6-84c4-74819fbb82e3&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk The Case for Nukes is a unique book. In it, world-renowned nuclear and aerospace engineer Dr. Robert Zubrin explains how nuclear power works and how much it has to offer humanity. He debunks the toxic falsehoods that have been spread to dissuade us from using it by variously the ignorant, the fearful, the fanatical, and by cynical political operatives bought and paid for by competing interests. 1959 AEC
4/4: The Case for Nukes: How We Can Beat Global Warming and Create a Free, Open, and Magnificent Future by Robert Zubrin (Author) https://www.amazon.com/Case-Nukes-Global-Warming-Magnificent/dp/1736386069/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=UeGVv&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=143-0258134-6610437&pd_rd_wg=sJV8b&pd_rd_r=0137d795-3a42-44c6-84c4-74819fbb82e3&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk The Case for Nukes is a unique book. In it, world-renowned nuclear and aerospace engineer Dr. Robert Zubrin explains how nuclear power works and how much it has to offer humanity. He debunks the toxic falsehoods that have been spread to dissuade us from using it by variously the ignorant, the fearful, the fanatical, and by cynical political operatives bought and paid for by competing interests. 1957 Fort Belvoir, VA
Happy Thanksgiving! This is Part 2 of a very special rebroadcast, as we air Dr. Therman Evans's presentation at the Agape International Center of Truth's “Revelation of Spirit 2000 Conference.” Dr. Therman Evans is the founder and CEO of Whole Life Associates, a graduate of Howard University undergraduate (BS) and medical school (MD), the former Vice President and Corporate Medical Director of Cigna Insurance and Healthcare Corporation, as well as the National Health Director and Washington Bureau Chief for Rev. Jesse Jackson's Operation Push. Additionally, he studied and achieved his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees in theology from the United Christian College of New York. Dr. Evans was appointed in 1998 and formally installed as Pastor of Morning Star Community Christian Center (MSCCC ) in 1999. As the Senior Pastor, he has brought the message of “wholeness” in mind, body, and spirit to the dynamic and growing membership and ministries of the Morning Star congregation. He talks about Divine Timing and being at the right place at the right time. He weaves his practice as a medical doctor with his wisdom as a preacher and gives a speech that glorifies the magnificence we are as human beings. Info: thermanevans.com.
Magnificent self sabotage from Sergiño derails a perfectly acceptable away Concacaf performance, and then it gets a little nervy in the second half. Greg and Belz talk through it, full timeline. We're going to the Copa.Subscribe to Scuffed on Patreon! Patrons get a private feed with one or two episodes a week, including the Monday Review with Watke and Vince, and a Friday show usually with Greg and Watke. Patrons also get access to our private Discord server, live call-in shows, the full catalog of historic game recaps we've made: https://www.patreon.com/scuffed
Do you realize how truly magnificent you really are? In today's very special rebroadcast, we air Dr. Therman Evans's presentation at the Agape International Center of Truth's “Revelation of Spirit 2000 Conference.” Dr. Therman Evans is the founder and CEO of Whole Life Associates, a graduate of Howard University undergraduate (BS) and medical school (MD), the former Vice President and Corporate Medical Director of Cigna Insurance and Healthcare Corporation, as well as the National Health Director and Washington Bureau Chief for Rev. Jesse Jackson's Operation Push. Additionally, he studied and achieved his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees in theology from the United Christian College of New York. Dr. Evans was appointed in 1998 and formally installed as Pastor of Morning Star Community Christian Center (MSCCC ) in 1999. Today he talks about how to have Heaven on Earth. As the Senior Pastor, he has brought the message of “wholeness” in mind, body, and spirit to the dynamic and growing membership and ministries of the Morning Star congregation. He weaves his practice as a medical doctor with his wisdom as a preacher and gives a speech that glorifies the magnificence we are as human beings. This is Part 1 of his inspirational speech. Info: thermanevans.com
As we look forward to Thanksgiving, we start by saying what we're grateful for including being American at this point in time of history. We'll then juxtapose that with what's going on in one of our favorite countries, Argentina as well as across Latin America and the world. We take note of the strength of the economy in the everyday things we see, give our weekly Fed/inflation update, and finish with our thoughts on Americans' confidence in the future. Key Takeaways [01:10] - Election shocker in Argentina [06:17] - Why business-friendly environments in Latin America are great for the US, world [12:14] - What F1 races, restaurant reser airport lines tell us about the economy [16:05] - Our weekly Fed/Inflation update [19:22] - Value propositions of the Magnificent 7 [26:32] - Why confidence for our children's futures is at all-time lows Links Argentine libertarian Milei pledges new political era after election win What China's shrinking population means for the global economy An on-the-ground report from the Formula 1 race in Vegas The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past The Bloomberg Aggregate Index inched about 0% YTD Sam Altman joins Microsoft as OpenAI names its third CEO in 3 days Only 19% feel confident their children's lives will be better than theirs Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Stacey Copeland joins Buncey to look back at a big night in Manchester and look ahead to a huge weekend in Dublin. They begin chatting about Nathan Heaney's shock win over Denzel Bentley for the British middleweight title. We hear from Heaney and his promoter Frank Warren. And Chantelle Cameron and Katie Taylor are on the pod ahead of their rematch in Dublin at the weekend.
We have a Thanksgiving special this week as we discuss the Wild Turkey. These birds are a major conservation success story, hear all about it in this weeks episode. We also talk about John seeing a turkey in the Democratic Republic of Congo, how turkeys got their name, and learn all about their magnificent feathers. Join John Bates, Shannon Hackett, RJ Pole, and Amanda Marquart for Birds of a Feather Talk Together. This week we are also joined by Jacob Drucker. Jacob Drucker is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Chicago and the Field Museum studying how birds interact with tropical climates over ecological and evolutionary time. Next week we will talk Hawaiian Honeycreepers with Jacob, but this week we invited him to talk turkey with us for Thanksgiving. Email us your questions at email@example.com Follow us on Instagram for pictures of the birds we discuss, specimen, and more info! @birds_of_a_feather_podcast
The Magnificent Mischief of Tad Lincoln is a story of Tad's relationship with his father President Abraham Lincoln, and a parent's love for his son and the wisdom of a child. Written by Raymond Arroyo, an award-winning journalist and broadcaster, this story will inspire children (and their parents) about the power of curiosity, imagination, and friendship.
Nick and Ken open up today's show discussing their NFL Week 11 betting results. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Being chivalrous is not just being a knight in shining armor. It requires us to serve. It is putting others before ourselves for the kingdom. It is standing in the gap, speaking out, humbling ourselves. To be a light to others and do what is right.
Thank God | He Is Magnificent | Genesis 1In today's sermon, pastor Joanne continues on with our series on giving thanks for God with a particular focus on the reality that our God, the Creator of everything, “He Is Magnificent.”
In this rapid insight episode, Nucleus Wealth's Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, and Head of Advice, Samuel Kerr, delve into the complex landscape of 3rd quarter earnings. The overall trend shows a downgrade in earnings forecasts, signalling a cautious approach by many companies. However, amidst this general downtrend, there exists a noteworthy exception – a group dubbed “The Magnificent 7”. These stocks have not only defied the broader market sentiment but have also showcased remarkable resilience and growth potential. As we dissect these earnings reports, we observe that the market, while grappling with immediate uncertainties, continues to hold a surprisingly optimistic outlook for 2024. This optimism seems rooted in the belief that current challenges are temporary and that a stronger economic environment is on the horizon. Read the Blog Post here Watch the full episode here To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more? Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to Nucleus Wealth Website. The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796 Responsible Investing DisclaimerNucleus Wealth offers all investors the option to tailor their investment portfolios according to the investor's own brand of personal ethics. While Nucleus Wealth maintains ethical standards of integrity, honesty and reliability, it does not seek to impose these on its investors. Rather, Nucleus Wealth offers investors a system of investment that incorporates three core strategies: (i) customisable; (ii) transparent; and (iii) safe. Within this, investors are given the ability to customise their investments insofar as it aligns with their ethical preferences, rather than that of the fund manager, by using screens and tilts. Once the investor's portfolio has been adjusted, Nucleus Wealth provides the investor with a company profile, access to performance dashboards and detailed monthly performance reports of each company within the investor's portfolio to further inform the investor on their investment decision and the company's ethical standing as it aligns with the screens and tilts opted for. Nucleus Wealth utilises a number of domestic and international sources to identify whether companies from particular countries or sectors fall within the categories of screens and tilts which the investor may choose to apply. While Nucleus Wealth undertakes its own fundamental analysis on each company, there is also the risk that investors could reach a different conclusion to Nucleus Wealth on whether a company falls within the frame of responsible filters being applied. For more information visit Nucleus Wealth's responsibility-related statements.
Heading into 2024, we may be witnessing a change in a number of trends. The October CPI numbers suggest inflation is moderating faster than expected. If that proves true, this may mean the Federal Reserve's aggressive campaign of hiking interest rates is over. And if that is true, the 3-year beating the bond market has suffered may be coming to an end. As for stocks, they've been powered higher all year by the Magnificent 7 -- Apple, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla.. But even there, we may be witnessing a regime change. To clarify whether these are indeed real & significant trend shifts, Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart sits down in today's video to speak with Fred Hickey, editor of the highly respected newsletter The High Tech Strategist, which Fred has been publishing since 1987. If you're interested in signing up for Fred's newsletter, send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org Or follow him on Twitter at @htsfhickey To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #magnificent7 #techstocks #inflation
Good News: Music may have more healing power than previously known! Link HERE. The Good Word: A powerful reminder from Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Good To Know: A startling fact about the Mall Of America… Good News: A retirement home in England wins a prestigious architecture and design award, Link HERE. Wonderful World: Explore some of […]
Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth's Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Head of Advice Samuel Kerr dive into the complex landscape of 3rd quarter earnings. The overall trend shows a downgrade in earnings forecasts, signalling a cautious approach by many companies. However, amidst this general downtrend, there exists a noteworthy exception – a group dubbed "The Magnificent 7." These stocks have not only defied the broader market sentiment but have also showcased remarkable resilience and growth potential. As we dissect these earnings reports, we observe that the market, while grappling with immediate uncertainties, continues to hold a surprisingly optimistic outlook for 2024. This optimism seems rooted in the belief that current challenges are temporary and that a stronger economic environment is on the horizon. View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more? Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to Nucleus Wealth Website. The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796 Responsible Investing DisclaimerNucleus Wealth offers all investors the option to tailor their investment portfolios according to the investor's own brand of personal ethics. While Nucleus Wealth maintains ethical standards of integrity, honesty and reliability, it does not seek to impose these on its investors. Rather, Nucleus Wealth offers investors a system of investment that incorporates three core strategies: (i) customisable; (ii) transparent; and (iii) safe. Within this, investors are given the ability to customise their investments insofar as it aligns with their ethical preferences, rather than that of the fund manager, by using screens and tilts. Once the investor's portfolio has been adjusted, Nucleus Wealth provides the investor with a company profile, access to performance dashboards and detailed monthly performance reports of each company within the investor's portfolio to further inform the investor on their investment decision and the company's ethical standing as it aligns with the screens and tilts opted for. Nucleus Wealth utilises a number of domestic and international sources to identify whether companies from particular countries or sectors fall within the categories of screens and tilts which the investor may choose to apply. While Nucleus Wealth undertakes its own fundamental analysis on each company, there is also the risk that investors could reach a different conclusion to Nucleus Wealth on whether a company falls within the frame of responsible filters being applied. For more information visit Nucleus Wealth's responsibility-related statements.
Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber kicked off the show with Wednesday's biggest gainer on the S&P 500:Shares of Target surged as a Q3 earnings beat and holiday quarter guidance overshadowed a sales decline. David reported that according to sources, activist investor ValueAct has taken a stake in Disney. The anchors also discussed the big post-CPI rally extending its gains, as the Producer Price Indexfell in October from the previous month. Also in focus: Biden-Xi meeting day, “Magnificent 7” moves, October retail sales decline, TJX among the earnings winners, a setback for the UAW-GM labor agreement. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
https://youtu.be/Q2DjoZ6KVNMRegister for the FREE Dallas MasterClass ➥➥➥ https://www.vectorvest.com/DallasWelcome to our YouTube channel! In this video, we bring you an exciting topic that every trader has been waiting for: "Trading the Magnificent 7, the cheap way!" Being budget-conscious doesn't mean compromising on profitable strategies. Join us as we delve into the art of mastering budget-friendly trading strategies that will bring success to your trading journey. In "Trading the Magnificent 7: Mastering Budget-Friendly Strategies!" we explore a range of innovative techniques that won't break the bank. From clever market analysis methodologies to cost-effective trading tools, we reveal how you can achieve impressive results without burning a hole in your pocket.Invest in Magnificent Seven Stocks without Breaking the Bank | VectorVest
Nice! This week Micah is joined by Xander Casey and "That Irish Geek" to discuss The Emperor's New School, Season 2, Episode 25, "Kronk The Magnificent/Kamp Kuzco!" Fair warning, dogs bark during parts of this. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/theemperorsnewpodcast/message Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/theemperorsnewpodcast/support
Boxing fans have been demanding deeper fight cards for ages and on Saturday night in Manchester they get their wish. A world title fight, a European title fight and 3 British title fights all served up for our delight under the same roof. Magnificent! Shakur Stevenson is also in action early Friday morning, attempting to become a three-weight world champion, plus Super-featherweight king Emanuel Navarrete defends his crown against Robson Conceicao. Finally, Adam Azim aims for European glory too, so there's lots to talk about on this week's preview. FIGHT DISCIPLES IS A MULTI AWARD WINNING PODCAST - WINNERS OF THE BEST SPORT PODCAST AT THE BRITISH PODCAST AWARDS 2017 AND 2018.
Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with inflation data that sparked Tuesday's stock market rally and drop in Treasury yields. The October Consumer Price Index came in tamer than expected: Unchanged from the prior month and up 3.2% from a year ago, 4% when you strip out food and energy. Jim highlighted the "Magnificent 7" and homebuilding stocks among the big winners. Also in focus: Home Depot's Q3 beat despite a sales decline, a look ahead to Wednesday's meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi, media stocks join the rally, EV winners and losers. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Steve King and Johnie Putman have one more show down in Panama City before returning to Chicago and it’s a good one! We start off with Jason Hedden, Executive Director of Recruitment at Gulf Coast State College kicks off the roster to tell us about Public Eye SOAR, a unique projection art festival taking place […]
Nick and Ken open up today's show discussing the NFL Week 10 results. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The secret to finishing something isn't really a secret. It's knowing what you want to accomplish and taking the necessary actions to get it done. The key is what is it? What's the why? Don't settle for mediocrity but finish with Magnificence.
Welcome to the fifty-ninth episode of the orgasmic lifestyle podcast with Venus O'Hara. In this new moon episode, we'll be discussing sexual healing. We'll be speaking with Alisa Zipursky, author of Healing Honestly. The Messy and Magnificent Path to Overcoming Self-Blame and Self-Shame Then we'll be discussing the series Tell Me You Love Me on HBO The episode ends with a guided mediation with survivor healing affirmations.
We live in an age of “Identity”… individual identity, identity politics… and surprisingly the Bible has something to say about this. And what it talks about is a magnificent identity compared to the paltry identities offered today.
In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the stock market, Fed Chair Powell's testimony, and the 30-Year Treasury Auction. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:33 – While stock market values are depreciating, an interesting “tale of two markets” is afoot as the ‘Magnificent 7' stocks continue to outperform expectations. 06:40 – Remarks anticipating the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report. As the software company has been reporting successful figures, whether the stock increases or decreases, it is expected to put a jolt in the market.09:44 – Remarks on Fed Chair Powell's testimony this past week: While nothing significant was stated differently from the Fed meeting on November 1st, we can expect that if inflation does not slow down soon, the Fed may consider one more rate increase. 11:38 – Comments on the 30-Year Treasury Auction and how the overall outcome was a shock to dealers.15:25 – Final comments advising listeners to consider their portfolio positioning and dollar-cost-averaging into bonds while attempting to stay vigilant regarding duration risks.Additional Resources:Key Questions: Election Day is One Year Away. What Should Investors Know? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankKey Private Bank Investment Brief | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn
Jim Bianco joins fox Business to discuss Inflation Expectations, Possible Future Rate Hikes, Interest Rates vs Earnings Reports & The Magnificent 7 with Charles Payne.
Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, expects consolidation in the streaming industry in the coming years. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the third Republican primary debate. Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says it's too early to know if the uplift in unemployment will barrel higher into next year. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence US Media Analyst, breaks down Disney's better-than-expected 4Q earnings. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the global oil market as crude prices remain low.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on app, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Jitting a manuel jointed to surround a table Chief Equity just over at evercor SI jitting Good mornings here, Good morning. Have you been participating in this wonderful, beautiful thing that is an eight day winning streak. Yeah, we have, you know, several weeks ago we just felt that when you backed off of that five percent yield, And I know we've been talking about it, but it is the fact that in this world now for the last year and a half, where stocks and bonds have been positive correlated, if bond yields go down, stocks go up, and backing off of five percent was huge for the psychology. And now we've got this unexpected oil price plunge, which is even bigger for Cheryl, I'm with you. Those two points yesterday stood out for me. Break a four to fifty on a ten year break of eighty on Brent crude. At what point do these correlations start to break the other way? What brings up hot that change? Well, we are watching that very closely. And guess what, the high frequency data is really important because that chart you were talking about a few moments ago, with the unemployment rate rising from three to four to three nine in the past, when that starts to happen, it tends to snowball. But where we're going to get the initial read on that is that eight thirty jobless claims number starts edging over two hundred and fifty thousand, we get a little bit cautious. Three hundred thousand is where we know the economy is going to turn down. I'm supposed to fold in now A question on Ed Hyman's Hicksy and Islm theory and his disinflation theory into your stock babble, forget about it. I love the single sentence you have which pushes against all that malarkey by saying price is paramount. Right now, when you talk to Ed Hyman, how does a respond to you telling them your economics doesn't matter, price is paramount. I'll tell you how five weeks ago Ed Heyman started putting out in almost daily the act that gasoline lean prices started falling as the conflict was erupting. You already had the turn in gasoline prices completely, you know, devoid of real sort of prosperity with Hymen's disinflationary tendency or outright deflation in China. Look, if you look at the last fifteen years, you've had episodic times of that from again. Obviously the financial crisis is one of those times. But ultimately what it comes back to again for equity investors, for bond investors. First of all, the whole idea of getting a real return on money in this world now is actually a positive for financial assets. It's a positive for capital allocation, and long term, it's a positive for growth. And that's you know, that's part of the equity investing mindset. Do you need a long term view right now or do you just trade the short term. It's really difficult to have a long term view because of what we're talking about the inflection in the economy potentially happening. But if you take the super long term view, is that even if you get the recession that Ed's thinking we're going to get, that it's going to be mild in twenty twenty four. What you're left with is a labor market that has rebalanced. What you're left with is again a real cost of money, better capital allocation, and frankly, we've talked about this before, you have new technological developments like generative AI that is going to improve the productivity of corporate America over the long term. One of the main frustrations of this year was that pretty much everything everyone said at the beginning of the year has proven to be wrong, including that this would be the year that tech stocks would fade more meaningfully and you start to see a broadening out in the rally. Energy stocks would start to be the true leaders. You just actually moved away from an overweight and energy and are talking more about generative AI. It seems like the theme just keeps on being that the leaders will keep leading. Everything else will just have to figure out where they fit in. Well, look, again, the recession will probably, you know, to the extent that it does arrive in the next twelve months or so, rationalize some of this, but ultimately what it's going to do, and look, part of the consternation on equity investors' minds is the fact that the Russell two thousand is making new lows. Ultimately, you're going to get to a point where there will be an attractive price for the other four hundred and ninety three stocks away from the Magnificent seven, and you will get to an earnings reset. We think that's part of next year's narrative. This is the difficult question I think people have got to confront at the moment. Do I want to buy the recovery to the recession I've not had yet, given the damage we've seen in the small camps. You can pick up various places to back up the consumer discretionary story. Allines, for instance, which have come way off the peak back of the summer. Do I want to start picking up the pieces going into what could be a slow down next year. We think you need to be balanced. It's one of those things where again, given the lack of visibility into next year, what we always say, we've had a very nice run in recent weeks, and if you go back over the last year, it's been a very nice run off the October lows. You need to be comfortable with the fact that if the market comes in ten or fifteen percent, which it does in any typical year, as it did several weeks ago, that you're a buyer of the dips and whatever that asset allocation is to you. That's the kind of discipline you need to employ. Goldman speak to this as well. We've gone through their note this morning a few times. It's worth doing it again. The hard part's over. More disinflation is in store over the next year. On growth, they see limited risk of a recession, and they say this on central bank policy. Then this is a really really interesting point. An increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts it grows slows. Earlier this week, Ben later on this program of E Toro, was saying the FED put was back. Lisa and I looked at each other and almost spat out our water. The FED put is back insures cuts of growth slows. Is the old fetch story returning? No? Why are they wrong? No? Look, because there is an assumption that there is a reflex reaction to a minus GDP quarter. Thankfully we didn't see it in twenty twenty two when we had that, because if you had interrupted the rate hiking program, you wouldn't have gotten to where you are. And you can argue both sides of this case, but frankly, for US, there is a commitment, given the fact that core PCE is still solidly with a three handle, that you just can't go down that road unless it really looks like there's a severe economic downturn. And we still think there's enough savings left over so that won't be the case. Judy and awesome as a was Emmanuel have et a court joining us now to brief off the GOP debate. Last night, Gregory Vliate, US policy strategist at AGF Investments. Gregory stood on the floor of the GOP convention of two thousand and four, and it was a different Republican Party. George Bush Junior wanted a more hopeful America. What's going to be that slogan this summer for the Republicans? Well, I think they'll emphasize the economy. They'll state that Biden has not done a good job. Frankly I would disagree, but I think that they'll make it more about the economy than anything else. The really intriguing issues are abortion number one, number two. How much more involved are we going to get in Ukraine and Israel? What about the idea that they're losing elections, not doing as well in certain elections. It going to be the mix of that we just saw it can be from a year ago, November, etc. How do they start winning again? Well, I don't think you talk like Ramaswami. I think he talked himself off the boat last night. I don't see much of a future for him. Probably not much of a future for Tim Scott. So it's dwindling. You've really only got three challengers. DeSantis, who was okay last night but made a strategic error he didn't mention the governor of Iowa had endorsed him. I can't believe he didn't talk about that. And then you've got Nicky Haley. He'll stick around for a while, maybe Chris Christy, but we'll begin at twenty twenty four. I think with just two challengers to Trump, that would be DeSantis and Haley. Do you think either of them have a chance of taking Trump off the ticket? Who would either of them? Oh? No, not at all. I mean Trump would have to do something really egregious, and he's pretty much filled the role on that for the last couple of years. So no, I don't see anything, you know, barring a health issue, that will keep Trump from being the nominee. Meanwhile, President Biden is going to meet with the UAW leader today and the there's a real question of what he can do to shore up the image of bignomics, of what's happened in the economy, which some people are saying on paper doesn't look so bad, yet in practice, has a lot of people feeling like they want something different. Well, it's a good question, Liza. I'm told that within the White House, Trump Biden is angry, he feels he's done a pretty good job in the economy and gets no credit. So he's going to hit the road and try to make his case. The problem is an awful lot of Americans fear that we're not out of the woods, and there's still more inflation threats, food, gasoline still to come. Greg Valier one oh one. Folks, this is a great course to take in politics. You get it off the back of a matchbook. You can take Valier one oh one. Greg, Your value one oh one is fiscal issues at the day of the election don't matter. Are you telling me the debt and the deficit don't matter the first Tuesday of November, Well, when you look at net inter cost, you look at borrowing costs, this is becoming a major crisis for the bond market, and there's no mood in Congress whatsoever to dramatically cut the deficit. However, I think that once we get through Labor Day of this coming year, this stuff will be irrelevant. I think attitudes harden during the summer. If Trump is well ahead, he could pull us out. But I have a feeling that Biden will come back. I have a feeling that the Democrats all of a sudden are motivated because of what happened in Kentucky. Is a path of least resistance for the former president. Another tax cut that's going to be on the agenda. You're absolutely right, Tom, and I think with the Senate probably flipping, in the House probably flipping, you're going to have a climate that will be ripe for a huge argument on whether we extend the Trump tax cuts. I think we will. I think Trump will talk about tax cutting even though the deficit is enormous. Greg, I have to wonder whether this time is different. A lot of people come on the show. We'll say dysfunction in Washington, DC is the reason why yields have been flipping and flopping and going all over the place, and then they talk about a potential government shutdown and say markets won't care. Have we reached the point where market dysfunction is going to result from political dysfunction in DC in a more material way. Well, we're going to see probably another alleged crisis on November seventeenth if there's no budget. I don't think the markets will be all that concerned about it. I do worry about the credit agencies, you know, fitch S and p downgrading US debt, not just because of the size of our debt, but because things are so dysfunctional in getting a budget. Great to catch up, Greg, appreciate your input. Greg Vally. THEFJEFF investment's gone into next year, as Ed Marangi and Emmanuel. So are you a confirmed bull? Cameron? I think that given the setup into your end, we can expect some kind of Santa claus rally just because of tax loss dynamics into the end of the year. The largest weights in the index are up the most this year, which means that you don't have eager sellers to recognize tax games. This is very different than last year, where the largest weights in the index were down a lot people sold them and you effectively puked into the end of the year. What it's the proverbial puke into the end of the year? Okay, thank you? Can we say that on radio? We just did, Cameron seriously our Warner Brothers discovery yesterday. Puke as you call it. Okay, how does that handle by tax saw selling? Well? I think that it will magnify as we go into the end of the year. You look at the areas that are down the most. This is small caps, This is cyclicals, This is healthcare some of your defensives. These are the areas where people are looking for tax sace harvesting opportunities. The key point though, is that they're smaller weights in the index or they're not part of the index. So when we just look at the S and P five hundred, that could be something that supports it into end year. So help me here. Am I buying the index the S and P five hundred? And am I looking for buying opportunities in small camps? The financials, things that have struggled? What am I doing? I think that you have to look for opportunities and things that have struggled as you go into twenty twenty four, because we know that pain trades usually are reversal trades in leadership and just at the point where everybody throws in the towel and says, well, you can't own anything but the magnificent seven. These are the names that give you optionality on AI and they have the best earnings growth. Everybody crowds into them, that's typically the moment that that's when they start to lag. And so I think we have to have the imagination that other things could do well in twenty twenty four. Other than just the narrow leadership that we've had this year, the Tilson Slock of Apollo's writing questions for us this morning. This is the question he's asking in its most recent note. Everyone who's bullish on equities and lower rated credit should ask them sound where they think the labor market will be in three months. With the Fed on hold and not showing any signs of cutting anytime soon, what's your labor market bed With that in mind, we are having the ultimate debate is if we're seeing normalization or we're seeing weakening. And the challenge is that normalization is usually the gateway drug two weakening, meaning that you see a little easing that turns into a lot of easing. But we're not yet seeing definitive data yet to say that the uplift we've had in unemployment is going to barrel higher. The key thing to remember, though, the Fed itself in its SEP the Summary Economic Projections has unemployment going to four point one percent next year and they're not forecasting a recession. So that's going to be a key question of if we get that four point one percent, does that justify them easing policy? Is it okay to sort of say we don't care for now. Down the line, whatever happens will happen. In the meantime, we can dance in the head of a pin with oil prices coming off, yield coming lower, and risk appetite still available. Yeah, because if we think going into CPI next week, remember that gasoline prices are down ten percent over the month of October. That's very different over the summer months where gas prices were up a lot. It pinched consumer spending maybe a little bit at the margin. So that does create this beneficial environment. But I think it's important to remember twenty twenty two, we priced in the earnings recession. In twenty twenty three, twenty three, we priced in the earnings recovery in twenty four. What are we going to price in twenty twenty four as we looked at twenty twenty five, are we still confident that this entire economic setup can remain very strong, that unemployment won't be an issue, consumer spending can remain robust Given the lack of certainty around some of the outcomes, the potential outcomes with the economy, How nimble are you remaining How are you remaining nimble? To be able to adjust quickly. I think we have to remain completely nimble. We saw that over thet last couple of weeks where we went from deeply oversold to deeply over to getting close to being overbought. It means that technicals become really important. We can't get too lodged into narratives because narratives would have told you everything's ending back a couple of weeks ago. Be scared. Now the narratives are saying everything is fantastic. The thing is that we are at resistance when we look at technical levels forty four hundred very important for the s and P five hundred four and a half percent very important support for the tenure. How we interact with those resistance and support levels will be very indicative of the next couple of months. Speak to the people who listened to you and said, Okay, I'm really nervous, but I'm going to participate in this market and they own tech which literally on an hourly basis, has a bid right now. What's the character of that bid on the Magnificent seven. Well, it's extraordinarily strong. But then think about the difference in the setup going into twenty twenty two Magnificent seven earnings had been cut by about twenty percent over the course of the year. Now going into twenty twenty three, over the course of twenty three, Magnificent seven earnings had been revised higher by sixty seventy percent sent on average because of the better growth that they've had. So it's a much higher bar and I think that's where the discipline is is not trying to extrapolate too much of the experience of twenty three, get too crowded, and instead look for opportunities and areas that might be more left behind. You've been talking, Cameron about how difficult it is to follow the mood because it swings so massively from week to week. How much has the move that we've seen in yields underpinned your conviction that you can lean into the rally heading into your end. It certainly has helped. We've seen it play out in the valuation and now valuations are back to about eighteen and a half time's earnings. The question is is that the right valuation even given where yields are at four and a half percent, where that equity risk premium is The challenge with valuations though, is they are terrible timing tools and that they have no predictive power on a one year forward basis. So we can look at the market and say, hey, it's expensive here, expensive there, but that may not actually show up in price action for two, three, four years. And that's where that discipline of not chasing very high valuations comes in. When you have a longer holding period, you go breaking news TK on donuts? Is that where you want to go? DONI plural don't I? Yeah? Yeah, longer going far away the way a prime broker attracted a hedge fund. We can get you shares of krispy Kreme short. There's a in the East Coast, particularly in the krispy Kreme's more southern thing, and they're a different don I than what you get from Dunkin Donuts, which is, you know, there's cultures here. John, It's like it's like Greg's, but it's like American. Okay, all of a sudden, krispy Kreme nice video on radio. You are missing the making of the Magnificent. And the answer here is krispy Kreme is looking for a partnership with McDonald's. John Tower out with this and it's a mixed story of Ibada out there. But John Tower, a city group says first bite on d n ut. It's a McDonald's partnership that we may see. Do you know what you don't know? And I know this story already because Bramo shared it with me before Bramo breaking into the news industry and Fargo years and years ago for the first Crispy Kreme shop tre Tree story, true story. I covered it and people lined up. They camped out overnight to get the first Krispy krama. I went to interview that. You can't imagine that Bramo was what Bradma was like in local news, right, just get into a fluff. It was like, it's an investive piece. What are they doing with that? Money? Is unreal? Bramo and Farco, Yeah, I'm enough of a dunkin donut, which Krispy Kreme is just two sugary and sweet. Like camera doesn't help us out here, Krispy Kreamer duncan, he's never had a donut. There is nothing better than a hot, fresh Krispy Kreme donut straight from the friar. Nothing better, all right? The scripting at me in the control room shot there. Please let's make sure we're running at nine o'clock today. Look for Cameron Dawson had Krispy Creekdnie. What you need to know is it's April of twenty eleven. There was a show then Game of Thrones Winter Is Coming was the first episode. And that's where we are right now. With the screaming success in days of Blue Eye Samurai on Netflix. I'm watching it. I can't say enough about the shocking beauty of it. It is overwhelming, how it is game changing for streaming. Keitha Raganathan knows this. She's US media analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. And I would suggest Disney knows this as well. Githa boyd A's Disney need a Blue Eye Samurai. They certainly do. And that's one thing Tom that Bob Iger really emphasized yesterday. He said he is looking to reinvent the studio. Those are the words he used, and he really emphasized quality over quantity. So you spoke about how spectacular Blue Eyed summariz that's exactly what Disney is going to go after. You know, they talked about, you know, the studio having some kind of franchise fatigue. Too many TV series created for the streaming service. They're really kind of streaming down or cutting down, I would say, pairing down on a lot of the content costs. You know, Lisa was talking about where those savings are going to come from, a lot of that is them just really cutting down on content costs. So they took down content costs from thirty billion to twenty seven billion. For fiscal twenty twenty three, they're taking that down further to twenty five billion, and that is where you get that big, big free cash flow number for them as well. Eight billion dollars is what they're projecting for twenty twenty four, or sixty percent increase from this year. Now I get it, it's anime, it's animation, but the basic idea is blue Eyed Samurai is is non diversity as we could get in twenty twenty three. Is Disney moving on from the tone and temperament of the last three or four years. Is Eiger going back to something or new to something different? I think it's a it's a combination of everything, a tom because you know, he needs to go back to the drawing board. He knows that there hasn't really been a new Star Wars or a lucasfilm movie since twenty nineteen. Obviously, the Marvels is in its next kind of iteration, if you will. So there's a lot of things that he needs to do. But the biggest thing I think for them for the Disney studio, and this has kind of been a little bit shocking. And you bring up animation, and that's a really good point because a lot of their recent animated movies have actually not performed as well as you know, some of us would have expected. And the Pixar has kind of been, you know, has had kind of this string of misfires, if you will. And the studio that is really kind of giving them a run for the money is Universal with Illumination. We had, you know, you have Super Mario, you had Minions, all of these animated movies from Universal doing really really well. So Disney obviously going back to the drawing board and kind of doing a lot of rethinking and as Bob Iger said, reinventing the whole franchise. If Bob Biker was the movie is this nightmare the same quote, that's that's a great knocking well. I mean, he tried his best. And if there is you know, any person for the job, any person who can actually fix and rebuild Disney. I think it definitely is Bob Biger and he, you know, kind of delivered signature Bob Biger kind of news yesterday. You know, lots of good news, lots of nuggets of you know, lots of nuggets of good good, you know, optimistic news for investors to kind of hang on to. Obviously, there is a lot of work that remains to be done, but we do know that there are some real growth drivers for Disney. Whether it's the parks business that is seventy percent of Disney's operating income, you know, throwing out about ten billion dollars in operating profits and cash flow. So that definitely is is a huge growth pillar for the company. And then of course it is streaming and how they're kind of going to manage that whole business. You know, we know that they're in the process of consolidating Hulu. You know, the big question is how they're going to manage the esp and transition. And you know, whether that then that Disney bundle, the streaming bundle, really becomes the competitor, a true competitor to Netflix. Is rebuilding a euphemism for shutting it down in terms of streamlining certain businesses and getting off selling the rest of it. Yeah, so he seemed to actually walk back a little bit of you know, the linear TV commentary. I know we've talked a lot about ABC and some of the other networks kind of being up for sale, but he also did say that there is a huge cost opportunity when it comes to you know, those linear networks, and so they've actually, you know, the Charter deal that they recently inked was was kind of a catalyst for them kind of you know, shutting down a lot of you know, the smaller networks networks that they are that they don't consider core, and I think that's what they're going to do. They are definitely going to streamline the business. You're absolutely right, Lisa. I'm not sure when or how the sale is necessarily going to happen, but he did Eigers seem to suggest that even if a sale doesn't happen right away, there are a lot of synergies and there are a lot of cost efficiencies that they can hopefully extract over the next few months. Okay, so this one's a tough one to answer, but explore the question with us if you can. Tom mentioned who's buying. If they're selling, who's buying Where did the buyers come from? So it could be private equity. I mean we know that there have there has been interest from certain parties Byron Island, but Byron Allen was one who kind of made a bid for for you know, the ABC and some of the networks. You know, again, private equity would always is interested in, you know, the TV assets because they do. Yes, it is an industry that is in secular decline, but at the end of the day, it does throughout a lot of cash and that is valuable. So yeah, again it's a little bit of a wait and watch. I mean there have been there has been some chatter about whether the leagues would be interested in kind of going and getting a broadcast asset. I mean broadcast assets like ABC don't come up for sale very often, so you know, maybe it is something that that the league and a leak can potentially consider for reach interesting. Gaitha, appreciate the update. You'll valuable. We appreciate your time. Geithor Reconnaz and the have Bloomberg Intelligence. Ellen Wall joining us now Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of Saudi Inc. Ellen to that point, Saudi's energy minister came out and said, it has nothing to do with demand, This is just price manipulation. Demand is still very strong. What did you make of that? Well, I think that he always has a bone to pick with the as he called him, the speculators, So I'm not surprised to see him talking about how, you know, this is all a financial thing and it's all due to speculators and it's not a you know, supply demand issue. But I think, you know, obviously there's always you know, speculation in the market, and we did see a whole lot of fund managers dumping oil off the futures this past week, so I'm sure he's focused on that. But the fact remains that the market is reacting to what it thinks is lower demand from China, and whether or not that's actually true, I think remains to be seen. It's always difficult to gauge what exactly is going on in China. What the market's reacting to was news that refining margins are soft, and you know, Chinese refineries aren't making as much, and so you know they're interpreting that as weak demand. Now, how does that translate into whether China reduces its imports, and there was some indication that they are going to be reducing oil imports. In fact, one of the interesting things that we've seen is that Iranian oil exports in September and October have been lower than they were in August. They hit a big high in August, but now we're seeing declines and there's some speculation that may be due to the sanctions enforcement, but it's much more likely due to declining demand from China. And we've got Saudi y A holding a million barrels a day off the market. I do think Saudi Arabia is in the best position to be able to gauge Chinese demand, and it may be that this Chinese demand is looking a bit soft now. But you know, Abdozi's been someone is looking at the longer picture and the longer game, and he sees that that is strong well. And with great respect to your book, which is definitive, we can take these tensions at least back to the Saudi Yemeni War of nineteen thirty four. The Ibn Saud family has dealt with this for pushing one hundred years the distance to the south. Give us the modern treatment of how Riodd and Jiada look at Yemen today. Yemen is basically a thorn in their side right now. They don't like the Houthies, any group like the Houthies has Bulah Hamas. All of those groups, while well, you might think that ideologically there are similarities and matchups there, they are essentially a threat to the Saudi monarchy. The Saudi monarchy is like, you know, they're they're like the stated old you know, conservative guy who always votes the same way and always says the same thing for breakfast. You know, they're they're the status quo. And any group that's looking to change the status quo, even if there are similarities in terms of say religious extremism or religious ideology, that's seen as a threat. And what's a bit disturbing is that despite prolonged military campaigns by the Saudis and the UAE, they haven't been able to dislodge the Whoi's from Yemen. In fact, if anything, they're more entrenched. And so I do think that given the fact that the who these are at least claiming to be involved in the Israel Hamas conflict, you'll be interesting to see if the Saudis maybe use this as an excuse to really try to get them out of Yemen once and for all, or if they'll be a bit embarrassed by somebody else taking them out. And then the conservative guy, as you call Saudi Arabia their treatment of the shades of Palestine, how do you interpret that, doctor Wald? Now that that is a big question, because what we've got on one hand is King Salmon, who is nominally the king of Saudi Arabia, and he is vehemently I mean vehemently anti Israel pro Palestinian. I mean, this is a guy who thinks that, you know, the Mossad was responsible for nine to eleven and has said so, you know, in public on television. So he is a huge barrier to any kind of reprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. That being said, his son, who's really doing most of the ruling, the day to day ruling, seems much more inclined to use rapprochemant with Israel as a way to get what he wants or what he thinks he needs from the United States. And in fact, it seemed like that was about to be a very successful deal before this latest conflict derailed all that, and I don't think that the general battle, you know, the general lines that are drawn here are going to change. But I do think, you know, if if King Solomon wasn't wasn't there, I think we'd see a much faster progression towards Saudi Israeli normalization. I don't think we're going to see quite with the UAE or Jordan has But I do think that that he that that NBS sees it as a beneficial thing or at least a really good UH tool to get other things that he needs, like support for obtaining nuclear power and military pact with the United States. Just real quick here, how does Saudi Arabia view the production in the US. It's gotten to a record level and made all of these concerns about demand. I think that they they have kind of come to terms with the fact that the US is going to produce, with the US is going to produce, and there really isn't much they can do about it. I think they were probably pretty pleased to see that there's more consolidation in the oil industry. I think that they see that as good for production and for companies who are looking at the signs of supply and demand and aren't just pumping, pumping, pumping just to stay ahead the way that we saw in twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, and so I think that they see this as you know, this is where it is right now, and it's not always necessarily going to be this high. Ell in a wonderful brief, particularly those comments on Yemen. Thank you so much, Ellen Wald. Atlanta Council can't say enough about Saudi inc. It is absolutely definitive. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Blue Bomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Capitalist InvestorWelcome to this week's episode of the Capitalist Investor podcast! Join Derek, Tony, and Luke as they discuss the latest updates in the stock market, including the performance of the Magnificent Seven (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla), Seasonality, the current state of oil prices, WeWork's bankruptcy filing, and Jeff Bezos's move to Miami. Stay informed with expert analysis from the Dream Team. The Magnificent Seven The hosts dig into the performance of the "Magnificent Seven" - Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Facebook (now Meta), and Tesla. They discuss how these tech giants fared during the earnings season and analyze key factors such as cloud computing, AI, and consumer demand. Notably, Apple's decline in sales growth raises questions about its future as an innovative industry leader. Declining Oil Prices The team explores the reasons behind the 20% drop in oil prices over the past six months. They touch on the impact of reduced global demand, warmer winter predictions, and the increasing oil production in the United States. This conversation prompts deeper reflections on the state of the economy and the potential repercussions of declining oil prices. WeWork Filing Bankruptcy WeWork's rise and fall captivated the financial world. The podcast delves into the story of this co-working space company, once valued at $47 billion, that ultimately filed for bankruptcy. They analyze WeWork's business model, its inability to meet high demand expectations, and the concerns raised about valuations and profitability in today's market landscape. Jeff Bezos' Move to Miami The hosts discuss Jeff Bezos' decision to relocate to Miami and its financial implications. They highlight the benefits of Miami's favorable tax environment, no state income tax, and proximity to Blue Origin's space activities. This move sparks conversations about wealth, lifestyle choices, and the different approaches taken by billionaires like Bezos and Elon Musk. Don't miss out on the latest insights and discussions in the world of investing. Subscribe to the Capitalist Investor podcast today!#CapitalistInvestorPodcast #StockMarketUpdates #OilPrices #WeWorkBankruptcy #JeffBezos #MagnificentSeven #SantaClausRally #VirginGalactic #MiamiMove
(11/9/23) Markets added another positive day to their string of winning results, the longest since 2021. Markets have clearly broken the 50-DMA, and are now testing the 100-DMA. Markets are at the top of the downtrend channel, but are also overbought at this point, which suggests we should see a bit of a correction in the near term. We want to see the market hold around the 4,300 level so it can set up for a rally by the end of the year. Earnings seaons continues with 'okay' results, but majority of earnings growth still comes from the Magnificent 7 large-cap companies. Economic data is showing some signs of weakness, but nothing terrible. Money managers will be playing catch-up ahad of year's end, creating a bit of lift to markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa2FoDMtCDI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 And here's Wednesday's edition, "Trapped," as referenced in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuDcsA-5pNE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #MutualFund #FundDistribution #SantaClausRally #Markets #Money #Investing
$DIS and $MARA earnings were solid. Plus with the downgrade of $TSLA - is it time to short it using $TSLQ? Best thing about this Black Friday sale - There's a monthly payment offer along with a yearly offer TRENDSPIDER BLACK FRIDAY SALE - up to 82% off (limited time) Sign up at link https://trendspider.com?_go=gary93 Email me at email@example.com I'll send you the welcome letter that includes all the algorithms, watchlists and scanners that you see me use each and every day. Get $50 off a year of Seeking Alpha. https://www.sahg6dtr.com/2L9M597/R74QP/ TESLA referral -Use my referral link to buy a Tesla and get up to $500 off and 3 months of Full Self-Driving Capability. https://www.tesla.com/referral/gary82526 Social Links and more - https://linktr.ee/dailystockpick FREE NEWSLETTER WITH CHARTS - subscribe at dailystockpick.substack.com SPONSORED BY VISIBLE - Check out this page: https://www.visible.com/get/?3P8FJPM $20 off your first month - only $5 for the first month Sign up for Webull and get free stocks like I did - https://a.webull.com/IStte9iTQnfaDYFoCt Get AT&T Fiber at your home - I have 1GB service https://www.att.com/referral/code/?ref=TVY-3964 NOTES $QQQ - 8 days in a row now Earnings $MARA beat - only up 2% or so $DIS beat - up about 2% - not huge $TWLO beat and was up 12% $SPCE beat and popped 15% $HUBS up HUGE on earnings $ARM - first earnings report $AFRM - up 15% Magnificent 7 hits critical mass - who's left to buy? This is trimming https://x.com/grassosteve/status/1722355656223498494?s=20 $AMZN Amazon announced a new health care benefit program for Prime Members for $9 a Month (or $99 a Year) “Prime members get high-quality, convenient care from One Medical, including 24/7 on-demand virtual care nationwide and easy to schedule office visits at any of One Medical's hundreds of locations across the U.S” Big Insider buy - $XOM - $26M by a Director who also bought big in Aug $tsla downgrade $ORCL - crazy bounce back $NVDA - buy before earnings Social requests $BBY SCANS $PANW $SPOT - gap up on earnings - back filled - another MacD cross up for launch Stocks in the Core Portfolio that are a “BUY” in the 65 min algo $XLY $SMCI $RBLX $VOO $AAPL $SHOP $QCOM $AMZN $TSLA $UNH $DIS $LLY $META $BA $NVDA $FBCG $NFLX --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/dailystockpick/message
Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, points to potential issues in the global supply chain amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Managing Director of Public Policy, says the margin of error for House Republicans to avoid a government shutdown has narrowed. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, predicts that Apple could look to buy ESPN. Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler Senior Research Analyst, says the commercial real estate market is in the midst of a rare phenomenon.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Our guest of the Morning to synthesize all this with our question. Peter Cheers joins us. Now ahead of macro strategy at Academy Securities, you look for price up, yield down. What will that do to the equity market. I think for now it's going to be good. I think we see four thirty on tens before before we see four to seventy five. I think the pain trade is actually to lower yields. A lot of people who are bullished at five kind of got short again. I think that works until we get down about four thirty five. Equities rally on the back of that. Then we realize we're getting here because things like oil copper receding because the economy is actually slowing fast so I think at that point that's when the recession fear start getting priced back into stock. Taking Academy Securities three year view, you've got that slowing global demand. Nick bennenbrook On from Wells Fargo stunning with a two point four percent global GDP call. Can you own equities out with a three year vision? I think you could if you had a three year vision. I think right now it's more like a two to three week vision. Everything's so volatile. We don't know where this economy is turning. We don't know what's going on there. And one thing that's starting to scare me is we're having a lot of discussions about the Middle East. We're starting to hear a little bit more concerns about supply chains. I don't think it's an issue today, but if as this drags on, if there's any degree of escalation, supply chains become an issue again. So I think that will be a big drag on the economy. The Middle East crude last month is just unreal. To see a move of almost eleven percent lower on WTI, even with the heightened tension in the Middle least, A lot of people appointing to maybe demand starting to crack in a certain places around the world, Europe one, maybe even the United States gone into next year. What's your view on that. Yeah, I think the last time I was here, I said buying oil was not going to be a good hedge for escalation there because oil had been under so much pressure before, and I think that's what we're seeing again. There's just that lack of demand and the Saudis definitely have the ability to turn on the tap if they want. We're clearly trying to figure out how to work with Venezuela, and so far it looks like Aram's going to continue to pump oil despite the sanctions, despite the height intensions there. So there's not much in favor of oil right now, and I think that's a very crowded long position, so I could see that breaking lower coming into next year. You mentioned a two to three week view. I'm with you. You You know what's about to happen. Then in the next two to three weeks, we're going to get a load of people publishing their outlooks for twenty twenty four. Can you help us understand how you get any visibility whatsoever into next year? What's the strategic view going into you know, I think there's still some big themes. I think AI, how people are using AI, the efficiency that that could cause for companies. I think that's going to be a big theme still. So you can look over that. Where are we going to be on the defense spending? Where are we going to be in terms of geopolitical spending. I think the reshoring is still real. I think a reasonably healthy economy with their decent jobs is still the overriding thing. So I think markets are a little bit more volatile, volatile right now than the underlying economy is. So if you put this together to what you said earlier, that you see benchmark ten year yields getting down to four point three five percent before going back up to four point seventy five percent, or just basically they're heading lower. Does that mean that we're going to have slower growth but still the soft landing and that it basically people are going to get a little concerned about stocks, but that it sets up a rally. And I'm just trying to understand. No, I think a very convoluted range of thoughts. So I think as we move towards four thirty five, you get this, Oh, this is all good for stocks, and then as you start moving below four forty, I think people realize, oh man, we're getting there. Because things are not in the economy. The job market has changed, you know, white collar workers aren't doing as well as they were. You're seeing, i think, some potential for spending. You're seeing little cracks in the housing prices. So I think, all of a sudden, by year end, we're going to be back on a hard landing discussion and it'll be the boy who Cried Wolf, but we'll all be back talking about no more soft landing. We've overdone it. So you think that at that point, treasures will continue to be Haven's once again, even though arguably one of the biggest drivers of the yield move has been Washington, d C. And it doesn't look like that's changing. That's not changing. But again that's a three five ten year sort of pain. It's you know, we get ahead of ourselves. And I do think the one problem we all have is the bond market's so big. You talk about these numbers, two hundred and fifty billion, and it's huge, but it's you know, a fraction of twenty five trillions. So I think the ability to digest this you see corporate bonds come out twenty two billion yesterday, I believe it was you know, there's no problem digesting this, so I think the market's pretty healthy. I think people see yields as attractive. You're going to see people continue to add to that, so I think that's fine. It's going to be the risk side of things that gets people a little bit more spooked. Tell me about the November real yield shift we've seen. We've seen the ten year real yield migrate two point five zero percent to two point one nine percent. That makes things easier for everybody, right, it does. But I think the nominal yields still play a big role. They're still relatively high, and we had that move from you know, three seventy five to five, so we haven't clawed a lot of that back. I think there's this long you know, invariable lag time is really long. This time people did such a good job locking in yields. It's only now that you're hearing more and more people have to roll over their debt. Right if you issue to your debt back in the hey day, Now it's rolling over. Three year debt's not quite rolling over. So I think we're just starting to see that slow down impact. And I think one point John brings up, we've got what we've been calling this faux liquidity, this fake liquidity. It feels like the markets are super liquid at any given price point, but the ability to gap high or low is there. So I think we got pushed to five percent by people getting stopped out, pushing on yields. We're now got back to four fifty in a heartbeat because people are getting stopped out. So that's what we're trying to I think manage is like, what's the real noise versus the signal? You mentioned the Great Financinc. The Great Financinc. Of the pandemic, the huge wealth transfer we had from Treasury to the consumer. Consumer balance sheets were stronger. Everyone under the Sunny wonder House remortgage termed out that debt low rates. Corporate America did the same thing. One place didn't Treasury standrug Amit has been very critical of leadership a Treasury over the last i don't know, five years through that low interest rate period not termin out the debt. What are your thoughts on that? What do you think about that conversation? Yeah, I think they should have done what corporations did. I'm always a big believer, right, you know, borrolong it blocks in, you reduce volatility. And we're having a lot of conversation with clients. Probably a little bit hypothetical at this point, but maybe people are supposed to be under weight treasuries and T bills and way overweight whether it's commercial paper or corporations. That right, if you take a step back and talk about this as being governance, right, the US governance is offer right now in terms of our spending, in terms of we talk about not paying our bills. Right, you look at the large corporation's world. They have good corporate governance, they have global plans. They never once would ever even think about saying, oh, we're not going to pay our debt on time because we don't feel like it. So I think you're supposed to be starting to push really heavily to overweight high quality corporates, maybe in commercial paper, maybe some abs, and move really underweight T bills. So do you foresee a time when Apple can borrow at a lower rate than the US government? You know that ability to break the sovereign ceiling rarely happens, even in emerging markets. I don't think it happens here, but I do think you can see really tight spread compression, especially at the front end of the corporate bond curve. So I like that as a trade. Do you think we get convergence spread compression on governance issues alone? I think that will play a part of it. Yeah. I think the top quality companies have a ton of cash. The liquidity in the bond markets not what it once was, So whatever you have to pay up their own tea bills, maybe you don't. And I think this government issue is going to become a real thought again. If you think about it, why would you lend to someone who talks about not paying your debt because for a long time they've had the privilege of acting recklessly correct talked about this so many times there's been no consequence for it. Why is this time different. I think something we talked about before snapped in the market, and all of a sudden people are really questioning this whole you know, correlation or coalescence of events that have been on the back of everyone's mind. I don't think it cracks this time, certainly, but I think it starts setting us in stage again. I always go back to the Great Financial Crisis. It started breaking in two thousand and six, got fixed, broken in in two thousand and seven, got fixed, broken in in two thousand and seven, got fixed. So I feel now we've started this unwined and unless DC gets its act together, this is going to be Every time it rears its head, it'll get uglier. But it's not this year's story anymore. Pet love it always thoughtful Pitcher. There of academic securities. Lebby Cantrell joints Now managing director had a public policy a pinkel. You're the only one I can do this with. Can you take the election results and you can fold them into a government shutdown which happens in about three cups of coffee? Can you make that exercise happen? Yeah? Well, good morning, and thank you for not asking me a question about orgo. I did I take organic chemistry at school, so thanks thanks for testing me on that. Yeah, so I do think that the read through actually from last night, Tom So thanks thanks for a layup. Here is actually Democrats won a special election in Rhode Island. This was a is a blue race, a blue seat, this is a house seat. That means that they have two hundred and thirteen seats in the House. Republicans, however, only have two hundred and twenty one. They have a special election in Utah in a few weeks. The reason why this actually means this is important from a government shutdown perspective is that means practically that Republicans now can only lose three seats excuse me, three votes in order to pass a funding bill that they need a pass to avoid a shutdown by next Friday. So it just means that the margin of error is much more narrow for Republicans. Speaker Johnson was already needing to thread a needle, if you will, and that a needle point has just gotten even more narrow from the result from last night and threading the needle. What will moderate Republicans do? I don't have it in front of me, but I'm going to suggest on Long Island east of New York City, the Republicans had a good night. What are the moderate I guess the former president would say, Republicans in name only. How do they adapt an adjust off the selection? Yeah, I think that what we learned last night is that the abortion rights still very much resonate. That was obviously a takeaway from the twenty two, twenty twenty two midterms, where abortion really emboldened turnout. It shows last night that this really is very much an issue, especially when it is on the ballot. Now, I think for twenty twenty four, many of these folks, particularly in those districts Tom that you mentioned, where there are you know, Republicans who are defending Biden districts. The Democrats will make this an issue. You're going to hear a lot about abortion rights over the next year because of the results of last night, just sort of underscoring that this clearly is a resident voting issue for voters. So in terms of the government shutdown, what does that make those moderate Republicans do They are voting in lockstep here. They really are trying to give Speaker Johnson, you know, the benefit of the doubt. I think that will continue. I think the big question for markets is, though, is that enough can they actually avoid a shutdown If they pass a partisan bill, Tom, we will see a shutdown next Friday. So again kind of an open question of how this all resolves. But as of now, it looks like they are voting in a partisan way, which means that shutdown risk is you know, I think is increased over the last week or so. Do markets care though, I mean, as a shutdown basically, okay, they're going to do it for twenty four hours for effect and then we'll move on. Yeah, least, I think that's that's that's that's the real the real issue. If it is a temporary shutdown, no, this will just be more DC noise. If it's a longer, more prolonged shutdown, it does become I mean, the economic impacts of you know, lots of federal workers being furloughed not actually collecting a paycheck could matter. And also, you know, the data matters, right. If we don't get data from the Department of Labor, for instance, that makes the Fed's job, you know, a little bit a little bit harder. And we can also see, you know that this term premium that you all been talking about, we could see you know, some of the yields back up again as well on account of this. So I think you're right. If it's a short term shutdown, no, the markets probably don't care. If it's longer term, however, you know, it may it may weigh on you know. Again, I just sort of the confidence around sort of the political apparatus in Washington, d C. Just shifting from last night's elections to what we're expecting next year, a presidential election. How much of a certainty do you think that it is that we're going to President Biden versus former President Trump. How much will tonight's debate really color that discussion about potential other running candidates for the Republican Party in particular. Yeah, so, I think what we've been messaging to client Lisa is with high conviction President Biden will be the nominee for the Democratic Party. This idea that he is going to drop out, that Governor Newsom, for instance, may jump into the race, it just is not It's just not realistic at this point. Nor is there any indication from the Biden camp that he has any interest in dropping out or any intention of dropping out. So he will be the Democratic nominee again, you know, excluding or assuming there's no sort of exident health issue or what have you. On the Republican side, I President Trump obviously has an incredibly formidable lead in the polls, but this is actually a really important point. He his campaign is much more organized, i think by his own emission, than it was in twenty sixteen, and they have been systematic changing the delegate rules in the states in terms of how the state primaries allocate delegates to his benefit. So not only does he have this formidable lead in the polls, but he's also sort of changed the kind of the machinations behind the scenes in terms of how these delegates are allocated, and of course getting the nominations just a delegate game, So the fact that he's been changing these rules is to his benefit as well. So, I mean a lot would have to happen, I think tonight and over the next two months. Now. I think what we can show from even last night that voting behavior is the most important thing to look at and polls are not always right, and so particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Those are the four the first contests, Lisa, and how we're guiding our clients is if Trump wins all of those, then he very likely is going to be the nominee. However, if there's somebody can test one of those that it could be easily become a two person race. But again sort of remains to be seen. In terms of tonight, it's really a race for number two DeSantis between and Haley. Yeah, I think we will see it be pretty pretty nasty and pretty ugly tonight. I'm looking forward to that debt a little bit. Nice Levie, thank you going to catch out you're one of the best. You're going to catch with a pimcot the vix at fourteen point eighty four. That is a Dana Ives market you, Senior Equity Research Channal web Bush. You refuses to talk to us when Apple learnings come out. We only get them to pick up the debris and we can tell for those of you on radio, you can understand these long Lily Pulitzer as well. This morning. Great, Look, Dan, I want to talk about your two forty call on Apple. You're not lonely. There's a few other people out there with dana Ives optimism on Apple. When I saw those margins and a company managing for profit not revenue growth, can you raise your two forty estimate? Yeah? Look, I think this is just the beginning of the next fees of the Apple store. You look at margins that are historical. You look what's happening on services now mid teen growth, and I despite the haters continuing to hate, is growing even when you take out currency and you it's even growing more asps the China iPhone demise story is a fictional Netflix story, and in my opinion, this is just the start of what I ultimately view is at three and a half to four trillion dollar market. So slow day, we got to make some news here. Can you pop from two forty up to two fifty this morning for us? Look, I believe that I believe are the best case or the bowld case is probably closer to to seventy five as this all plays out, because also now you don't have AI in those numbers. This is just the get out the popcorn moment for when Apple ultimately I believe, over the next year, introduces the AI app Store, and that's just going to be you know, ultimately from a services perspective, that could be an incremental five to ten fifteen millions. You made a couple of statements, so let's stroke down on them. We can do that. Your friends, you talked about growth at the iPhone. What growth are you talking about? So if you unit growth, units are growing into the December quarter, you also if you take out currency, which is a headwind, you have basically mid single digit growth. You've been talking about a massive boom of people upgrading. I guess my questions you dan to be polite about it. Have you been right for the wrong reasons on the stock to acknowledge that? I would say that ultimately, if you look at this, what I've used a mini supercycle that's playing out. The ASP stories played out, and I think our biggest call has been China. Despite many yelling fire in a crowd theater, the China growth is actually increasing, not decreasing. But they had a down quarter right in China. Well, if you look at China, Meanli in China was actually a record for the September quarter. When you look at the overall, you know, as Keen talks about the initial reaction after sure iPads, max that and three dollars get your cup of coffee, I'm focused on iPhones where units were up in China. Well, I'm struggling with that. And you'll appreciate this. If you came on today and say margins it better they are. I'm with you, Okay, Margins are great service revenues where the growth is that deserves a high multiple. I understand that maybe you can make the case for why the stock is high this year based on those things. When you say things like iPhone supercycles, when we've had no growth for four quarters in the company, that's where I struggle. Can you have the understanding this? So it's dissect that first. When you're thinking about the card five six hundred BIPs f X headwinds, that is actually underlying growth that you're seeing an iPhone units. Just to steady state it. I also believe our whole view of the iPhone cycle is really going to be over the next three, four or five quarters. That's where you're going to have these upgrades that actually come through. I'm not saying that you don't have some maybe share minor share of Watses on the sort of mid tier, but in terms of high end as a utility, this essentially is going to be a mid to high single digit growth on iPhone, and when you start to run that through, that could be an incremental one two three dollars earnings As you look out next two three years. There's a lot of growth already baked into valuation, and a big piece of valuation is where the buyers are going to come from. And you've been traveling around the world trying to hold everyone's hand and convince them that there is still value in big tech. How much do the losses of other areas of the tech like sphere and I'm thinking of Masioshi's Sun and the more than eleven billion dollars loss on we work. How much does that play into a little ambivalence about buying the story right now. Look, I think you're definitely having winners and losers in terms of this just broader economy, and I think in terms of the Magnificent seven. In terms of big tech, I think the strong gets stronger. But he said, to my point, you know, being an easier for a few weeks, and in Europe, you know, it's very easy to sit there here in New York on your tenth floor spreadsheet being negative on Apple. What I see out in the world is a much different environment in terms of the growth that happening. And I believe tech to your point, you're going to see the strong continuing to dominate. And I think in terms of AI, we are just in the early stages of monetization. I think that's a big thing in this tech ball market. Microsoft saw it in terms of AI, you're starting now see monization data dog that's a Hall of Fame quarter in terms of what we saw there, pallenteer the messy of AI, and I believe ultimately right now the AI gold rush is actually starting. That sounds lovely on that side. On the side of how much we're paying for price monetization and monetization of AI, am looking at Apple plus in sort of the amount that though that's increased, are we going to be paying six hundred dollars a month to Apple for all of our various services? Look, I think over in there, But to your point, I think over the next year or two, I think the average Apple user is going to start to definitely increase what they're paying Apple on the services because ultimately, as it goes out, the A I technology that's gonna be in fitness health in the app store, that's just going to give them just another added growth to the monization of Coupertino. And I think part of why the stocks reacted, you know, despite you know many I think being very negative initially, as it's come through, you know, to Pharaoh's point, iPhone, you're now starting to see grow services mid teen growth margins. This is just another you know, flex and muscles moment. And I think that's on a sum of the parts, how this is a stock that Ultimate is gonna be a four trillion dollar markup by twenty twenty five. Just picking up on penalty the messy of Ai. Why why are they the messy of Ais? Because I believe they are the pures play AI name in the market period. And and look, Palenteer is one where you know, many have been negative on that story for a number of different reasons. But I think what you're seeing now happen is that they've actually parlayd enterprise success and you're seeing the use cases explode. I believe Palteerman twenty five is are a base case, but that is the golden child of AIS. I'm gonna make some news any day now. Do I see another massive, mega billion dollar Apple debt offering. Look, I think that's something that you know clearly, you know could be on the table. I think the bigger thing for Apple is I think they're finally going to look at M and A, and we've talked about I think we got to extend the in They're gonna buy Disney by by the week. I believe ESPN is the asset that Ultimate by Okay, you but for that, I think thirty five to forty billion in terms of what bates transaction, but it could not beats three and a half billion. But also it goes back to the MLS deal that was I think where the light bulb went off in terms of live streaming sports. I think ESPN is a unique ass And look right now, you look at the top of this mound, it's Nodella, it's cook, you know, it's You're really starting to see ultimately more of an opportunity where they could go on the offensive ratherland defense. Okay, it's good to see you. Thank you, buddy Dennice of web Bush. It's joining us to talk about just how bad of a time this is for this to hit. Alexander Goldfarb, Senior Research and Analystic Piper Sandler. I want to start there, Alexander. There've been talks discussions around the number of leases that we work is going to abandon. Is the pressure on commercial real estate office space in particular in New York is it overstated right now or understated? Well, good morning Lisa and Tom, and thank you for having me on you know here at Piper Sandler. When we look at what is going on in office, it's it's eerily similar to what happened with malls. You know, over the past decade. If you recall, everyone pre pandemic thought every single mall going to close because everyone was going to shop online, and in fact what happened is the dominant malls like the Roosevelt Fields or Houston Gallerias continue to excel and lesser malls fall away. The same thing is with office. So if you look at we Work, which we don't cover we Work, but if you look at some of the fallout out in San Francisco, they rejected a bunch of leases. They did not reject one lease from Boston properties. When you look in San Francisco, when you look in New York, you know, companies like s Green Bornado have zero exposure now to WE Work because they exited those we Work leases over the past number of years, and even Boston properties only as one percent. So when you look at the fallout that's going to happen, and you look at the major reats and especially the ones that we cover here at Piper Sandler, the impact is negligible. And what's really interesting is when you look at office, especially here in New York, it's gravitating around Grand Central, and actually you're seeing rents increase on Park Avenue. So just like MAUL, the dominant office will survive the lesser the generic office. That's where the trouble is. So are you saying right now that the prices have baked in a lot of that trouble or that people just haven't been discerning enough to understand the winners versus the losers. Absolutely. If you speak to the brokerage community like Newmark, they are starting, They and Cushman and the other brokerage companies are starting to discern the difference between top tier versus generic, Class A, class B, etc. So when you look at what tenants want today, tenants want, you know, great space with a lot of amenities, convenient, convenient for commuters, and they want a landlord who has the capital wherewithal to invest in the properties. And let's face it, the brokers want to get paid a commission and you're seeing that fallout. It's no different than we've seen in retail. So again I use the mall example, Simon Property Group, you know with their billion dollars a year from task, so tenants know that they can be there the same as happening in reats with companies like sl Green. That's right where I wanted to go, Alexander, you are reading my mind. What is David Simon going to do with this folks? Simon Property Group Indianapolis three thousand employees. What is the guy from Indiana University can do? He's seen this before we come down. But my history is fresh money always comes in. When does the fresh money click in? If transaction to transaction, I'm down forty percent. Well, you are speaking David's mind. He loves cash flow. So since IPO, the company's paid out thirty nine billion in dividends, and the reason they've done that is by investing shrewdly. So when you look right now, he's very focused on investing in his malls. So apart from the Tallman acquisition, which was structured before the pandemic, he hasn't bought anything on the outside. His focus has been investing in the malls like out in Northgate and Sea out Of where they're converting it into a hockey arena, or Houston Gallera where they're adding office and apartments, etc. So that's where he's focused. But let's face it, given the challenges away from Simon. He can pick and choose. But if you look, he's making a ton of money out of his portfolio, which people forget is actually small. It's only one hundred and twenty malls and only two hundred or so domestic properties in total. So he's a large company but with a small powerhouse portfolio, right, Ben Alison, I got to make some headlines here. We're in the business and news, Alexander. There's blood on the streets. We see it in New York, and I get it. New York's its own little weird place, but there's all across the nation real estate blood on the streets. Are you saying your world of reats back to when you were at Lehman, your world of reads? Is it now a screaming by because of all the agony Lisa was just framing, So it's not a screaming buy in the sense that interest rates are high. Right, we have a tenure that was approaching five percent and it's now backed off a little. But certainly the financing market, which as you guys have reported, is basically shut down, right, CNBS market is tough. You walk into a bank and try to get a construction loan, they'll call the cops on you. They're like, we don't do that right now. Right, So lending is very tough. The transaction market is almost on ice because of the widespread what's interesting people missing? Tom, You're like my first boss at Liam and David Shulman. You've been around a number of decades. Real estate right now is benefiting from a phenomena that it has not had in a long long time, which is low supply because nothing new is getting built, and low vacancy. That combination is really powerful. And you started the show by saying, how is the credit going to get worked out? Again? As you as we've spoken before, back in the GFC, everyone was panicked about the CNBS. No one can tell you where the benchmark GG ten? What happened to that famous twenty two thousand and seven feel right, stuff gets worked out, Obviously there will be pain, there will be blood, for sure. But if you look at real estate's biggest benefit right now, it's that lack of supply and low vocacy. That's a huge positive that is underappreciated by the market. Just about thirty seconds. What happens if there's for selling, akin to re work, so we work is a tenant, so you don't really have force selling from that. But to be clear, banks where everyone's focused on, they're not in the business a running real estate, right. So as long as it's a good asset with a good sponsor, they're going to work out some deal. Because, as the old adage goes, a rolling loan collects no loss. That said, there's clearly going to be assets that will go back to the lenders. And those are the assets where the economics don't exist. That's the stuff to worry about. But the big properties like the three ninety nine Parks, the one Vanderbilts, those big centers or are going to be fine. And again, when you look at where the value in real estate is, it's a crewing at the top. But you're right there will be blood, and the blood it's going to be generic assets. Alexander Brilliant, Alexander Goldfire years of work at Piper Sandler now on real estate investment trust. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app. Tune in and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keane, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Team India undisputed team this WC ? NZ running out of luck and injuries ? Zampa - The best middle overs spinner Pak doing Pak things again SA flattering to deceive AFG is here to stay Spoiler alert , stay tuned till the end for "What the గుమ్మడికాయ " section
A hobbled, cramping Glenn Maxwell pulled off what is probably the greatest ODI knock of all time to rescue Australia from several hopeless positions to pull off a miraculous win against Afghanistan and locked the Aussies into another World Cup semi final! Adam Peacock and Brad Haddin recap all the madcap action from this morning, and once you've listened do yourself a favour - watch the innings! Follow on Apple and Spotify Drop us a message on Instagram and TikTok! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Have you fallen into the consumer cycle? Do you even know what it is? Everyday we are exposed to wants and needs both consciously and subconsciously. We do it for different reason but the reason why is key. The consumer cycle keeps you wanting more and that what we have is not enough. Be content, be aware, be Magnificent.
Nick and Ken open up today's show discussing the start to the College Basketball season. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
After the best week for the stock market so far this year, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer discussed how to ride the rally's momentum. Jim highlighted the "Magnificent 7" -- including why he believes Microsoft is the best stock in the group and Tesla is destined to hit $300 per share. Also in focus: Veteran PepsiCo CFO Hugh Johnston is leaving the company to become Disney's CFO, Paramount slapped with a double downgrade, Citi mulls deep job cuts, Mark Zuckerberg's ACL tear, Bumble founder Whitney Wolfe Herd to step down as CEO. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Who are the Magnificent 7? Why are these tech titans important? Greg Smith from Devon talks us through their impact on the S&P 500, and provides a wrap on US Earnings for Q3. This quick bite is from our previous episode 'Tech titans boost Q3 US Earnings' We also look at the sectors still to report such as retail and more traditional stocks which are benefiting from consumers continuing to spend but trade down. Plus what's ‘streamflation'? For more or to watch the full episode on youtube—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch Brought to you by Sharesies, with BusinessDesk. Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own. Shared Lunch is not financial advice. We recommend talking to a licensed financial adviser. You should review relevant product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Content is current at the time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
It's Day 8 at the FilmQuest Festival, and the excitement is palpable as Mike and Lance sit down to talk shop with a true legend of cinema, actor Doug Jones. Now, we'd normally rattle off a laundry list of his accolades and accomplishments, but out of respect for our friends at SAG, we're keeping it indie and steering clear of promoting any studio films or TV projects during this interview. But hey, if you're not already familiar with Doug's incredible body of work, just head on over to IMDB, and you'll be in for a cinematic treat. In this epic conversation, the guys dive deep into what it's like to have a career as a creature actor. They explore the fascinating world of how Guillermo Del Toro directs his unique talent, the intricacies of directing a performer in a suit, the subtle nuances of motion, and the art of building a character through action. It's a treasure trove of insights and experiences that any aspiring filmmaker or film lover won't want to miss. Buckle up for a fantastic, fun, and inspiring two-hour journey into the world of cinema with Doug Jones. It's all happening on the latest episode of "In Love with the Process." Get ready for a masterclass in the art of storytelling through performance and motion! --------------------------------- Go to inlovewiththeprocess.com to see trailers and clips! ►FilmQuest: www.filmquestfest.com/ ►Doug's Instagram: www.instagram.com/actordougjones ►Lances's Instagram: www.instagram.com/golancego ►Mike Pecci's IG: instagram.com/mikepecci ►ILWP's IG: instagram.com/inlovewiththeprocesspod -------------> Featuring Music from: ►Mitch Murder ►Code Elektro ►Big Black Delta The Episode is Sponsored by ► bokehrentals.com/ ► Puget Systems: puget.systems/go/ILWTP ► Fotodiox: fotodioxpro.com/ ► FujiFilm: fujifilm-x.com/ ► FujiFilm Shop: bit.ly/3Q2zTHw ► FujiFilm Refurb: bit.ly/3I9NLh4 ► FujiFilmX-H2S: bit.ly/3i22hN5 ► Black Magic: www.blackmagicdesign.com/
Melissa and Lainey sit down this week for a long overdue catch up episode! Melissa discusses her recent conference and family trip to Napa and Lainey tells us all about her trip to Italy! It was so good to recap all of the recent craziness that October brought. November book of the month: Tom Lake: A Reese's Book Club Pick a book by Ann Patchett (bookshop.org) Listener support! Louisiana Ladies • A podcast on Anchor Catch up on Louisiana Ladies on Apple Podcasts and Spotify! Follow Louisiana Ladies on Instagram and Facebook Visit us at laladies.info --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/louisianaladies/support
Nick and Ken open up today's show discussing yesterday's NFL Week 8 results. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Nick and Ken open up today's show discussing yesterday's NFL betting results. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
When Maya Lin Sugarman was cleaning out her grandmother's home, she discovered some screenplays written by her late uncle. Galen Yuen was in a Chinese street gang before becoming a small-time actor. Maya had no idea the script about his life story was made into the 1997 movie “Crazy Six.” By the time Hollywood was finished with the semi-biographical thriller about an Asian crack addict looking to rip off some Oakland drug dealers, it featured Rob Lowe trying to steal plutonium from Eastern European gangsters. The screenplays send Maya on a quest to uncover her uncle's true life story, find the real people who inspired the characters, and learn how his movie got whitewashed in the first place.The Apple Original podcast “Magnificent Jerk,” produced by Pineapple Street Studios, is the true story of the fake story of a real life. The host takes a journey into the colorful past of the uncle she thought she knew and finds a tale about identity, ambition, and family.OUR SPOILER-FREE REVIEWS OF "MAGNIFICENT JERK" BEGIN IN THE FINAL 13 MINUTES OF THE EPISODE.In Crime of the Week: Paying your debt to society.