The Expert Factor

A week is a long time in politics, but it is even longer in international relations. Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the US and Americas programme at Chatham House, joins Paul and Anand to work out what the complex combination of Trump, tariffs and trade negotiations means for Keir Starmer and the UK.   What will Donald Trump's tariffs mean for the US's closest trading partners – and the EU and the UK? How should Keir Starmer approach relations with the unpredictable US president? Can the PM improve the UK's deal with the EU, and if so then what might the ‘reset' look like? And is the UK actually facing a choice between Trump's America and the EU – and, if so, what does he do… Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

To mark the fifth anniversary of the UK's departure from the EU, Anand, Paul and Hannah took a trip to Oxford of the Expert Factor. So how has the Brexit worked out for the UK? What questions are still being asked – and unanswered? And how might Keir Starmer and the Labour government approach the UK's ever-evolving relationship with the EU? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The robots are taking our jobs, we're going to be a nation run by chatbots, and an all-seeing, all-powerful computer is set to know everything about all of us. Well, not really.   But Keir Starmer says AI is poised to generate “incredible change in our country” So what exactly is he talking about?  Helen Margetts, professor of Society and the Internet at the University of Oxford and director of the Alan Turing Institute's public policy programme, joins Hannah and Paul to explore what AI could mean for the private sector, for the public sector, and whether there are good reasons to be worried about what the future might hold... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why is the social care challenge so complicated? Why can't the nation's politicians find a way forward? What is a possible solution? And what could Baroness Casey do to succeed when nobody else has managed to do so?   This week's Expert Factor sees Hannah and Paul joined by Andrew Dilnot, who chaired the Commission on Funding of Care and Support, to explore three decades of disagreement and delay, look at how social care currently works – or doesn't, and discuss what Louise Casey should do to deliver lasting change. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We've had missions. We've got foundations. We had some first steps. And now we have milestones.   So what are they? Are targets a sensible way to go about governing? How do they change the way civil servants work? Whose heads roll if targets aren't met? And has Keir Starmer even chosen the type of targets that the voters care about.   Anand, Paul and Hannah have read every word (probably) in Keir Starmer's Plan for Change, and are here to tell you exactly what the targets say, whether they can be reached, and what they mean for Starmer and his Labour government. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With the assisted dying bill dominating discussions and debates in Westminster, former House of Commons clerk David Natzler joins Hannah and Paul to explain how private members' bills work – and why they sometimes don't.   The bill to legislate for assisted dying isn't a government bill. It hasn't emerged from a Whitehall department. And it isn't being steered through parliament by a minister. It is a private member's bill, introduced by a Labour backbencher – Kim Leadbetter – whose name was drawn from a ballot.   So why might that be an issue? Has this particular bill exposed the disadvantages of this way of legislating? And what might be a better way of allowing backbenchers to make law? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does Donald Trump's plan to make America great again mean for everyone else? What do tariffs actually achieve and who feels the pain or reaps the benefits? Will Trump's America First vision push the UK towards the EU? Could the UK's defence spending rise - and what might that mean for public services? Is there any chance of a US/UK trade deal happening? And does the US result tell us what voters might be looking for here at the next general election here?   Hannah, Paul and Anand assemble in the podcast studio to make sense of some of the many questions facing the UK – and Keir Starmer – since Donald Trump's election triumph confirmed his return to the White House. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It is nearly a week since Rachel Reeves set out her Halloween Budget – the first from a Labour government in 14 years. So who are the winners? Who are the losers? Do the numbers add up? How big are the numbers? And have manifesto promises been broken along the way?   Former Treasury special adviser Sonia Khan joins Paul and Anand to crunch the budget sums, dig into the chancellor's plans and strategies, and explain what it all means for the government, for the economy, and for everyone who listens to the Expert Factor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Remember the days when Keir Starmer used to campaign for a second Brexit referendum? Since the general election we hear rather more about the Labour government wanting to reset the UK's relations with the EU.   So have there been any substantial changes in the relationship so far? How likely is it that the government will be able to successfully negotiate on any trade barriers? What about Labour's plan for a security pact with the EU - what could this look like? And from the EU's perspective, is there even any appetite for closer relations?   Brexit expert Jill Rutter, of both UKICE and the IfG, dials in from Madrid to join Anand and Paul for am expert tour across the UK's post-Brexit landscape Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Nobody wants to be in debt? To find themselves owing money? Or to end up paying back high levels of interest? But it has been reported that Rachel Reeves is looking to adjust the government's rules to allow her to borrow more. So what's the chancellor thinking? How can the government borrow more? What can it spend money on if it borrows more? If the rules are so quick to change then why doesn't every chancellor do it? And what actually happens if the government racks up a bigger debt? Well, take a deep breath, get your calculators out, and let the Expert Factor tell you all about it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How does power work in government? Where does power really sit in government? And how can power best be given away from government?   The Expert Factor team aren't exactly known for being 24-hour festival people – but when it comes to a festival about policy they are properly in the mood.   And in this special recording for this year's Policy Festival, Hannah, Anand and Paul explore how policy is made (and could be made better through) with a fascinating discussion taking in missions, devolution, ministers, money and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hannah, Paul and Anand – with some snazzy new remote podcast recording equipment – met up at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham to record a special episode of the Expert Factor. So what is the mood? How does it compare to Labour's get together in Liverpool? Has the Conservative party reflected on its historic defeat and considered how it might govern differently? And are there any announcements that we need to be paying attention to? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How many people claim benefits in this country? Who should be allowed to claim benefits? How much money does the government spend on benefits?   Questions about benefits are back on the agenda. The row over cutting the winter fuel allowance is ongoing. Keir Starmer is insisting that most people who claim benefits should be looking for work. And the government is planning to legislate to stop benefit fraud. So is the government taking the right approach for bringing the benefits bill down? -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How angry should people be about Keir Starmer's free gift list? How does a confusing set of rules governing standards and ethics in public life actually work? Whatever happened to Labour's grand plans for reform? And what can the PM due to reset the narrative? The IfG's standards expert Tim Durrant joins Hannah and Anand to get beyond the row over Keir Starmer's new suits and Arsenal tickets and explore how the standards system works - and often doesn't - and what could be done to fix it. -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What exactly is a National Wealth Fund? Lots of other countries have one - or something similar. In fact, there are 179 of them - holding up to $12.4 trillion in assets.   And now the Labour government is going to set one up too. So how do they work? Where does the money come from? Where does the money go? What are the opportunities? And what are the risks? And how might Rachel Reeves' wealth fund vision play out?   Hannah and Paul are joined by top macroeconomist, finance expert, development specialist and sustainability adviser Sony Kapoor to explain all.   THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.    Produced by Milo Hynes and Podmasters. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Parliament has returned. MPs are back in Westminster. And the government is gearing up for a busy autumn, with the budget and some big legislation in parliament coming down the track. The Conservative party is battling through a leadership contest. The party conference season is almost upon us. And there's a rather important election taking place in the US.   So what do we need to look out for? Where might the government run into difficulties? Which political rows might erupt? And are there actually any taxes to raise? Hannah, Anand and Paul return to the studio to bring you an expert preview of what might happen next in British politics.   THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.   Produced by Milo Hynes and Podmasters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Are the right people making the right decisions about your future? How do politicians really know what you are thinking about the big questions facing the country? And is a tick in a box once every half a decade really a good enough way to tell our politicians what you want them to do?   Polly Curtis, CEO of the think tank Demos, joins Hannah and Anand to dive into the world of citizens' juries, citizens' assemblies, and the new democratic experiments that could shake up how policy is made. Can these ideas make a difference, or are they just a distraction?    --------   THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come.   Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The country is reeling from the worst civil unrest in the UK since the London riots of 2011. So why did violence break out across England in recent weeks? How well has the Government handled it? What can be done about disinformation on social media? And should we be thinking about the root causes of dissatisfaction? Nazir Afzal, former Chief Crown Prosecutor and Chief Executive of the country's Police & Crime Commissioners, joins Anand and Hannah to try and make sense of the scenes that followed the tragic events in Southport last month - where three young girls attending a dance class were murdered by a 17-year old assailant. Produced by Milo Hynes and Podmasters. ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One of the Labour government's big missions is to deliver clean power by 2030 – so what is its plan for getting there? Nick Butler, a top energy consultant and economist, joins Hannah, Paul and Anand to explain what the government is trying to do, who is going to pay for it, and examine whether it will actually work. What exactly is GB Energy? How does the Crown Estate fit into the plans? Is onshore wind going to be enough or do we need a bigger mix? How many more pylons does the UK need to build – and will people really accept this as a price to pay for cleaner energy? And talking of prices to pay, are people's bills actually going to come down? ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Rachel Reeves has accused the previous government of leaving a £22 billion shortfall in public finances. But do the chancellor's sums add up or was this all about the politics? Anand, Hannah and Paul examine what could be a defining moment for this government, explore what Reeves is trying to do, and try to make sense of some of the decisions - like scrapping road and hospital building projects, restricting winter fuel payments, and cancelling the imposition of a cap on social care charges – that she made this week.  So what actually is the state of the public finances? Did Labour really not know how bad things were? What does this mean for the Civil Service and, whisper it, independent experts? And with a Budget now inked in for October, what should we be looking out for – and how tough are the decisions now facing the chancellor?  ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The general election was less than a month ago, but Keir Starmer has already had to deal with an assassination attempt in the United States, a NATO summit, and hosting the European Political Community at Blenheim. And there are more challenges ahead. The US election. The question of how to deal with China. And, of course, Gaza and Ukraine will continue to dominate the headlines. So how clear a plan does Labour have? How might it approach these and other challenges? And to what extent does David Lammy's doctrine of ‘progressive realism' provide a useful guide?  Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London, joins Anand and Hannah for a fascinating tour of the government's global priorities, opportunities and potential risks. Produced by Milo Hynes  ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Within days of winning the general election, Keir Starmer has had to respond to what is undoubtedly a crisis – perhaps even an emergency – in prisons across England and Wales.  The equation is a simple one. Too many prisoners, not enough prison places. More prisons are being planned. But even this won't keep track of the expected rise in prisoner numbers. So how on earth was this allowed to happen? Who is to blame?And has the Labour government come up with a sensible plan to fix the problem – or just a short term sticking plaster? Ken Macdonald, crossbench peer, former Director of Public Prosecutions and president of the Howard League for Penal Reform, joins Anand and Hannah to examine one of the biggest headaches facing the new government. Produced by Milo Hynes. -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's not even a week since the British electorate voted to hand power back to Labour. Keir Starmer now leads a government with a huge majority. Rishi Sunak is still – just – leading a massively reduced Conservative opposition. The Liberal Democrats have reclaimed their status as Parliament's third largest party. The SNP had a terrible night. Reform have established a foothold in Westminster too. British politics has been turned on its head. So what does it mean for how this country is governed? Is this a significant shift or a short term protest? What do Keir Starmer's first appointments tell us about what he wants from his ministers? What actually happens next in Parliament? And just how hard will it be for Labour to achieve its arms and policy priorities? Plus: The elections in France: what just happened and what happens next? -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whoever wins the general election – and right now it looks set to be Labour – is going to inherit a particularly stacked and complicated in-tray. And most complicated of all might just be housing.   It's a problem that so many people are facing – and it's a problem that successive governments have completely failed to solve. There aren't enough houses. There aren't enough houses being built. Houses are too expensive to buy. In some places they are too expensive to rent.    So what is the solution? Hannah and Paul are joined by special guest Toby Lloyd, a housing policy expert and former No10 adviser, to make sense of what has gone wrong – and what could be done to fix it. PLUS: Just how bad are these gambling headlines for the government? THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.    Produced by Milo Hynes and Podmasters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's the Holy Grail. The answer to all our problems. The key to, well pretty much anything the next government wants to – and can – achieve. Rishi Sunak made it one of his five pledges. Keir Starmer placed it front and centre of Labour's manifesto. But does anyone really know how to deliver economic growth? With Paul on his holidays, The Expert Factor is joined by IfG chief economist Gemma Tetlow for a closer look at the questions that could define the next government – and the future of our public services. What levers can governments pull to make growth happen? Is for politicians to build their promises on the prospects of future growth? And what does growth really mean in the real world for you or me? Plus: How big a deal is the Conservative/Reform crossover poll? -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Promises not to raise tax are a feature of every general election campaign, and this year is no different. But what are Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer really saying about tax – and what does it mean for what the government can spend on struggling public services? Which taxes could still rise? What taxes need reform – and how can government go about it? And what does the public really think about tax? Anand, Paul and Hannah crunch the numbers  and tell you what the tax rows are all about. Plus: Rise of the Right... what just happened at the European Parliament elections? -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How do parties decide who gets to stand to be an MP? And are they doing it right? So far this general election has been whirlwind of surprises and unexpected recrimination. Keir Starmer has been accused of purging the Labour Left to install friendly faces in plum seats. And the Conservatives had to search frantically for new candidates to replace record numbers of their MPs who've decided to stand down. What does it take to get on the ballot paper? And how do the parties' choices shape their future in power (or opposition)? Special guest Isabel Hardman – assistant editor of The Spectator and author Why We Get The Wrong Politicians – guides our panel the murky world of candidate selection. ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Robin Leeburn for Podmasters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It is a week since a rain-soaked Rishi Sunak called a general election. So what on earth is going on? Does Rishi Sunak's surprise decision make any more sense? Is the idea of national service going to win back the younger voters? Do the claims and counter-claims about tax add up? And will anyone talk about Brexit over the next six weeks? For impartial, insightful and, yes, expert analysis and insight, there is no better podcast to turn to than the Expert Factor. From now until the July 4th polling day, Hannah, Paul and Anand are going to dig into the big policy announcements, pick apart the manifestos, crunch the numbers, analyse the promises and pledges, and explain what this general election is all about – and what it means for government, for the public finances, for politics and for you. ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hillsborough. Bloody Sunday. Grenfell. Scott. Leveson. Chilcott. And just this week, infected blood, the Post Office and Covid. Public inquiries can make headlines. They can alter the course of political careers. They can bring closure. They can shape all our lives. So in the week that the contaminated blood inquiry's final report was published, Emma Norris, the IfG's deputy director and resident public inquiries expert, joins Anand and Paul to examine what makes a successful public inquiry - and what makes an unsuccessful one. Should politicians resist them or welcome them? How much do they really cost - and does that matter? And how can they make a difference?   THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.    Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

UK universities are widely regarded as some of the best in the world. Boasting six of Europe's top ten universities, it's easy to see why so many students choose to study in Britain. Yet despite this, Britain faces a major skills shortage. Outcomes vary greatly across students from different backgrounds. And prospective students are increasingly sceptical about whether a degree is worth the money. With the election fast approaching, all parties are laying out their vision for the future of Britain's universities. So why does it matter? Are UK universities really world leading? How is it funded? Is this sustainable? Are degrees worth the money? And what needs to change? In this episode, the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into universities - their funding models, what they cost to the taxpayer, how much they contribute to the economy, where they're failing, and what needs to change.  -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The dust has settled, we've caught up on our sleep, and the Expert Factor team have assembled in the studio to make sense of a big set of local elections. Local Government Chronicle editor Sarah Calkin is this week's special guest, joining Anand and Paul to explain what these votes were all about and why they matter.  So what do these elections mean for Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer? Will the results have any impact on campaign strategies for the general election? Could they even force Sunak to call an early election - or perhaps a very late one? THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes and Podmasters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The general election campaign will probably be all about immigration, the economy, jobs and the NHS, but an industrial strategy – or not, if there isn't one – could be critical to the future of this country. But what exactly is an industrial strategy? And why should voters pay attention to whether the government has one – and what Labour might do differently? Hannah and Paul are joined on this week's Expert Factor by Giles Wilkes, who has worked on industrial strategy at the heart of government, to explore what an industrial strategy actually means for anyone voting in the general election. When can we tell if an industrial strategy is working? Does Rishi Sunak have an industrial strategy? Has Keir Starmer come up with a plan of his own? What have former prime ministers done with their industrial strategies? Has the UK ever even had a successful industrial strategy? ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The NHS is front and centre of a general election campaign. Rishi Sunak has placed the NHS at the heart of the five pledges he wants to voters to judge him on, while Keir Starmer has made NHS reform one of the five missions which he says would drive a Labour government. But money is tight, and performance levels are poor. That familiar subject of how to reform the NHS is surfacing again – along with the tricky question of how to pay for our health service. So how is the NHS funded? How much do we spend on the health service? How well is this money spent and why does the NHS never seem to stick to its budget? Are there better ways it could be funded? And are politicians being honest with the public about what the NHS can provide – and how it should be paid for? On this week's Expert Factor, the team examine one of the thorniest questions in politics – and a question that is sure to be asked repeatedly in the general election campaign. THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes and Podmasters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

‘Stopping the boats' was one of Rishi Sunak's five priorities at the start of 2023. The numbers, and the visuals, of small boats arriving on the UK's southern coast is an issue long seized upon by Nigel Farage and the Reform Party that has, to some extent, spooked both the Conservatives and Labour. And it is a policy problem that has caused massive headaches for the finest minds in government, a succession of ministers as well as the officials trying to implement that policy.So what's actually happening in asylum policy? How many people are trying to claim asylum in the UK, and what does that really mean? What is the government's approach to asylum, be it by approaching Rwanda to be a ‘third country' or otherwise, and is it working? And what, if there is one, could be a better approach?On this week's Expert Factor the team explore asylum policy and how effective the government's approach has been to date. ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With elections being held in the UK, India, the US, Austria, Belgium and for the European Parliament, 2024 is going to be a huge year for politics, politicians and political parties. But could it also be another big year for populists?   In recent years populist parties of the right and left have exploited anger towards the political elite, a loss of trusts in governments, and growing democratic dissatisfaction. They have surged in polls and made electoral breakthroughs, but will the coming months see more of the same? What would this mean for the numerous elections set to take place over 2024? Will we see previously fringe candidates rocketing up in the polls? What will happen if Donald Trump wins or loses in the US? Will politics in Europe and beyond lurch to the left or right? Just which voters do these parties most appeal to? And how do we go about improving voters' faith in their representatives and stop democracy itself coming under threat? On this week's Expert Factor the team take a deep dive into populist politics. ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On 5 November 2024, up to 161 million American voters will go to the polls to vote for the next president of the United States – and will be faced with a choice between the same two candidates that stood in 2020. Joe Biden, the incumbent, will again face Donald Trump – the former president who lost to Biden in 2020. But polling suggests many voters are less than enthused by the choice. Non-MAGA Republicans feeling queasy about the prospect of Trump – who is still facing a pile of legal challenges – returning to the White House, and many Democrats wonder if Biden, who would be 86 at the end of a second presidential term, is the best possible candidate. So what are we to make of American politics?  How does their system work? What will happen in the election? What could this mean for the UK? And is politics in the US a guide to what might happen in the UK? On this week's Expert Factor the team take a deep breath and take a deep dive into US politics. Mark Landler, London Bureau Chief of the New York Times and a former White House correspondent, joins Hannah, Paul and Anand (who dials in from Boston) to try and make sense of a presidential election that will have consequences across the world. -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.  Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Take a look at the polls and you might be forgiven for thinking that the next general election is heading towards one outcome and one outcome only. But that election could be months away – even next year, and a week, let alone a month, is a long time in politics. Keir Starmer keeps reminding his party not to be complacent, and Peter Mandelson has even predicted that the next election will result in a hung parliament. If so, then what happens? What would it mean for the country if no party wins a majority at the general election? Are there lessons from the coalition years of 2010-15 or Theresa May's 2017 deal with the DUP? Are there better ways for minority governments to govern? What should Westminster learn from the devolved administrations? And why have we seen an outbreak of hung parliaments in recent years – and should we prepare for more? On this week's Expert Factor the team take a deep dive into the confusing – and often chaotic – world of hung parliaments. -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A major new report by the Institute for Government says the centre of government – No10, the Treasury and the Cabinet Office – is not capable of meeting the challenges that the UK faces in the 21st century.  So what has been going wrong? How has No.10 failed prime ministers from different parties over the last two decades? What does the Cabinet Office actually do, and why has it more than doubled its size in the last ten years?  Should the Treasury be split up? Is it right that the most. important decisions in government are taken in Cabinet meetings attended by over 30 ministers? And if, say, you are Rishi Sunak with five pledges or Keir Starmer with five missions, and you win the general election, then how would redesigning the centre of government help you achieve those aims?  This week's Expert Factor sees Hannah, Paul and Anand take a deep dive into the heart of UK government – and explore why the centre doesn't work, and what needs to be done to fix it. ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Politics is not for the faint hearted, but it feels like we're witnessing an outbreak of increasingly divisive language. Lee Anderson has been suspended as a Conservative MP. Suella Braverman's interventions divide opinion. The Labour Party – no stranger to running into controversy over its politicians or party members – has endured a particularly difficult time in the build-up to the Rochdale by-election. So what's going wrong? Why are politicians choosing to use this type of language? Do political parties have any power to stop them? Or will things only get worse in a general election year? Tim Bale, professor of politics at London's Queen Mary University, joins Hannah White and Paul Johnson for an Expert Factor deep dive into the increasingly fraught political landscape. -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jeremy Hunt will reveal his 2024 Spring Budget on Wednesday March 6th. So what can we expect from the chancellor?  Has the fiscal situation improved – or worsened – over the last few months? Are tax cuts really plausible given the state of public service performance?  How will Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves respond? Will this be the last budget before the general election? And could this be the moment that Rishi Sunak turns around his government's fortunes?  On this week's Expert Factor the team look ahead to a big day in the Westminster calendar and a hugely significant moment for the country. -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Expert Factor team assemble to examine what an era of global instability means for the UK, for our government and for British politics. What would the return of Donald Trump to the White House mean for whoever wins the general election? How is the conflict in the Middle East impacting British politics – and the decisions that British politicians need to take? Does the UK have the resources to meet its foreign policy aims and defence needs? What difference has Brexit made to how the UK acts on the world stage – and should we be working more closely with the EU to achieve our priorities? It is harder than ever to separate what happens in our country with what happens countries that are thousands of miles away. So how prepared is the UK to meet the challenges of an increasingly unstable world? ———— THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.  Producer by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Paul Johnson away on holiday, Hannah and Anand are joined by Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast, for a deep dive into recent dramatic political developments in Northern Ireland. A deal has finally been struck and power-sharing has been restored in Northern Ireland. So how will it work? What has been the human cost of an absence of government at Stormont? How will this impact Northern Ireland's relationship with the EU? And what could the deal mean for the future of Northern Ireland and the island of Ireland?  -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Guess what issue tops the charts of voter concerns? It's the economy, stupid. Interest rates have soared. We've had high inflation. Mortgage rates have hit eye watering levels. And tax rates are at record highs. So just how unhealthy is the UK's economy? How might things change in the run up to the next election – and will Rishi Sunak's pledges work out? Will whoever forms the next government be in for a nightmarish fiscal inheritance – and what does this mean for public services? And what, or who, should we blame for all this economic bad news? This week's episode of The Expert Factor takes a deep dive into the UK economy. -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It is four years since the UK left the EU – and nearly eight years since that referendum. So what have we learnt? How has Brexit worked out – and what changes could yet be introduced? What is the current state of UK/EU relations? How might they develop in the future? And could a future government try and renegotiate the UK's deal with the EU? This episode of The Expert Factor is a deep dive into how Brexit is working out – and how it might develop in the months and years ahead. -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.  Producer by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Adam Fleming, presenter of the BBC's daily Newscast on BBC Sounds and Antisocial on Radio 4 joins us for this special live recording of The Expert Factor! What is the best way to hold politicians to account? Does it matter if a minister is given an official warning for making inaccurate claims? Who reads manifestos and do manifesto pledges actually matter? How can we find out what voters are really worried about? And what is the best way to be an expert in a general election year? This episode of the Expert Factor was recorded in front of a live audience at the Institute for Government's annual conference on Tuesday 23 January. ---------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Power changes hands overnight following a general election. Shadow ministers go from running small offices to being in charge of thousands of civil servants. Their advisers become all-powerful special advisers operating at the heart of government. And the leader of the opposition moves from an office in Parliament to 10 Downing Street, instantly handed the levers of power and a Rolodex of the world's most important people. So how can oppositions prepare for such a massive change? What goes wrong if they don't? And with Labour 20 points ahead in the polls, what does Keir Starmer need to do to get ready for the possibility government? On this week's episode of The Expert Factor, the team explore how transitions of power work in the UK, the importance of access talks with the civil service, and key lessons from past elections – and parties that did, or didn't, prepare for government. Find out more here: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/preparing-for-government —————- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This could be a pivotal year for British politics. A general election is set to take place in 2024. Rishi Sunak is urging voters to stick with the plan. Keir Starmer is pitching this as a year of change. So when might the general election be held? What is the most likely outcome? How will the economic outlook shape the next government's options? Will the March Budget shift the dial? What are the big moments to look out for in Parliament before polling day? What could we learn from local and mayoral elections in May? And how might the US election – and a possible second term for President Trump – affect UK politics? On this week's episode of the Expert Factor, the team pick out the key moments ahead in 2024 – and explore what the future might mean for British politics and government.  -------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Spectacular by-elections. The Covid Inquiry. The privileges committee report into Boris Johnson.. War in the Middle East. An outbreak of civil war in the Conservative party. It has been quite some year. So how did Rishi Sunak's pledges work out? Has Keir Starmer done enough to convince the electorate? Is the economy on the mend? Are public services on the decline? Is Brexit still getting done? And how will global affairs impact on British politics? For this final episode of the year, the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into the last 365 days – the highs, the lows, the moments that matter and the questions that remain unanswered after 12 months packed with political drama and intrigue. ---------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election - and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes and Alex Catling Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Matt Hancock, Dominic Cummings, Rishi Sunak, Patrick Vallance, Chris Whitty and, of course, Boris Johnson have all relived – and tried to justify – the decisions taken by government during the pandemic. So as the year draws to a close, The Expert Factor takes stock of progress in the Covid Inquiry and whether the questions being asked – and the answers being given – are helping to explain how Johnson's No10 functioned during this crisis. What have we learned so far? Who has given a good account of themselves – and whose reputation has suffered even more damage? What questions should have been asked? And can we be confident that the machinery of government in this country – and the levers of power in the centre – will be better equipped to deal with the next pandemic? On this week's episode of The Expert Factor, the team take a deep dive into one of the most significant public inquiries – perhaps ever – to be held in this country. ------- THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes

Satisfaction with the healthcare system is at its lowest level since 1997 – but the issue has been consistently rising as a priority for voters over the past two years. Waiting lists are at record levels. The damage caused by the Covid pandemic continues to be felt across the NHS. More money has been thrown at staffing, but productivity continues to lag. So what is the answer to the NHS's problems? How do you pay for a bigger workforce – and how can it be done while simultaneously reducing immigration numbers?  How can you ensure you meet the needs of the entire healthcare system? And how do you future-proof the healthcare systems against future challenges, like another pandemic?  On this week's episode, the Expert Factor take a deep dive into the state of the NHS – and explore how this or a future government could provide a long-term plans to fix the NHS.   –––––– THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election and the political landscape for years to come.   Produced by Milo Hynes

This month marks four years since the 2019 general election, when Boris Johnson bulldozed his way to a Conservative majority with his promise to ‘get Brexit done' – and Labour sank to its worst election result since 1935. But so much has changed since then. We've had a global pandemic. The partygate scandal. Two changes of prime minister. A huge economic downturn. War has returned to Europe. And for the last two years, Labour has held a poll lead over the Conservatives of around 20 points. So what are the public really thinking about British politics right now – and what might the next general election look like? On this episode of The Expert Factor, Hannah White, Paul Johnson and Anand Menon take a deep dive intothe issues that could shape the next election – and explore what voters' priorities are likely to be as they head to the polls. After numerous scandals around the ministerial code, MP's behaviour and transparency, are voters more concerned with competence than anything else? Will this be the first non-Brexit election we've had in almost a decade? Are the Conservatives resigned to electoral defeat - and has Labour done enough to win back those voters they lost in 2019? THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven't had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.  Producer by Milo Hynes and Podmasters