Podcasts about andrei shleifer

We're back with more state, local, and urban issues -- maybe Sam has become a full convert! In this week's episode, we're joined by renowned urban economist Edward Glaeser, the Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics and the Chairman of the Department of Economics at Harvard University. We begin by discussing The Survival of the City, Professor Glaeser's new book written with David Cutler. In just over half an hour, we get through several topics. How will cities adapt to pandemics, will work-from-home continue as it currently exists, and will insider groups continue to dominate local politics? What does the future of work look like in cities; will we ever approach the post-work urban future that Keynes described? Beyond exploring these questions, we also discuss how cities can and should think about race and inequality, both through administration and legislation. All of this and more in less time than it takes to commute on most U.S. subways (and find out why that is while you're listening)! Referenced Readings: Ken Auletta, The streets were paved with gold, (1980). Eric Bosio, Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser, & Andrei Shleifer, “Public Procurement in Law and Practice,” NBER Working Paper, (2020) Leah Brooks & Zachary Liscow, “Infrastructure Costs,” (2020) Edward Glaeser, Triumph of the City (2012). Edward Glaeser & David Cutler, Survival of the City (2021). Edward Glaeser & Andrei Shleifer, “The Curley Effect: The Economics of Shaping the Electorate,” The Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, (2005). Tracy Gordon & David Schleicher, “High costs may explain crumbling support for US infrastructure,” Urban Wire (2015). John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” (1930).

Mental Models Podcasts predicts that this historic and unprecedented bubble will crash by the second quarter of 2021. Bubbles are driven by narratives. Bubbles have an end but timing the end of the bubble is unknown, which is the risky part, and very different than sports betting. Predictors are, volatility, age tilt, issuance, market cave, and acceleration. How do you understand bubbles...visiting with historical features of bubbles, academic literature, lessons learned from Saberpoint Capital’s review, biases, and looking forward into 2021. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You (2017) observed the period of 1926-2014 identified 40 different bubbles, suggesting bubbles are not that common. The four main findings are presented on pages 2-3 in Greenwood, et al, paper based on Eugene Fama’s work, see Link https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.09.002. [Eugene Fama (academic papers listed below)] A SPAC investment is a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)”created solely to merge or acquire another business and take it public”, this is often a cheaper option to a PO (public offering). Biases to be aware of are optimism and fear of missing out that could push your towards the bubble. For more on best investing strategies, avoiding bias and learning about your brain BUY 5 star reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” on Amazon - link here: http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE Continue to listen to Mental Models Podcast to avoid the biases that are keeping you from making a profit in the market. Stay safe and healthy out there! Fama’s Academic papers: Fama, Eugene F., 1965, “The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices,” Journal of Business 38, 34-105. Fama, Eugene F, and Kenneth R. French, 1992, “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance 47, 427-465.
Fama, Eugene F, and Kenneth R. French, 1997, “Industry Costs of Equity,” Journal of Financial Economics 43, 153-193.
Fama, Eugene F., 2014, “Two Pillars of Asset Pricing,” American Economic Review 104, 1467- 1485.

Discussed on today's show: Advice for new users Doing research How to 'brexit proof' your portfolio How could Brexit impact FI? Books recommended by Sam: --> Thinking, fast and slow, Daniel Kahneman: https://amzn.to/2EtDN8H --> Misbehaving, Richard Thaler: https://amzn.to/2HWZzCI --> Animal Spirits, George A. Akerlof: https://amzn.to/2W2B80u --> Risk, Dan Gardner: https://amzn.to/2WoGSAR --> A Crisis of Beliefs, Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer: https://amzn.to/2W5OusW Books recommended in previous episode: -->Nudge by Thaler/Sunstein - https://amzn.to/2ULfOYi -->Predictably Irraitonal - https://amzn.to/2WV9dw4 -->Superpredictors by Phil Tetlock- https://amzn.to/2I6MnOP -In Play dividends and Performance Buzz -Player Ceilings -PB Scoring matrix, GWG -FI's finances and business model -A Youth Bias, or a youth bubble -Media Buzz -Marketing budget over summer -Positional changes & Optagate -FI Comms -Psychological side of Football Index and Market psychology -When to sell players -Structuring your portfolio -Order books If you did enjoy this, please do subscribe- and leave a review! Want to learn more about football index and hone your trading skills? Check out my YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBRKBjc-H8EvC15eejJc6GQ If you haven't already signed up to Football Index, use the referral code "FIG" when signing up for a bonus! ⬇ ●Deposit £50 or more, get a £20 bonus ●You also trade up to £500 risk free for 7 days (T&C's: https://trade.footballindex.co.uk/figbonus/) Music by Nkato, and Joakim Karud

Our guest this week is noted author and advisor, William Bernstein. Bill’s background and entree to finance is unique—a neurologist by training, Bill self-taught himself the principles of investing and asset allocation, eventually parlaying that knowledge into a successful financial advisory practice and a series of influential, critically acclaimed books such as "The Intelligent Asset Allocator." In this conversation, we explore Bill’s background and how it shaped his development and thinking as an investor and how he applies those lessons in working with clients who are trying to meet goals like a comfortable, secure retirement. “I had to figure out how to save and invest on my own”: Bill’s crash course into investing and constructing a portfolio (1:29) “I had to figure out how to save and invest on my own”: Bill’s crash course into investing and constructing a portfolio (1:29) • “I had to figure out how to save and invest on my own”: Bill’s crash course into investing and constructing a portfolio (1:29) • Separating the wheat from the chaff: How Bill decides what investing research matters and what doesn’t (4:30) • Top of the list: Books that profoundly influenced Bill’s investment philosophy and approach (5:45) • “The overwhelming science of investing does not speak well of active management”: Bill on why empirical data ought to settle most questions (and why active-share doesn’t hold up to scrutiny) (7:02) • “You approach it with extreme caution”: Bill explains why investors should be skeptical of most factors they encounter in the “factor zoo”, save a few (9:27) • A question that’s giving Bill pause: Is value too crowded a trade? (10:33) • Is low-volatility the most attractive factor from a behavioral standpoint? Bill worries it’s gotten too expensive. (12:02) • Fingers (and toes) crossed: Bill thinks value is cheap enough to stick with (12:55) • “Really, not very much”: Bill on how his approach to asset allocation has evolved over time (13:43) • “The riskiness of stocks is not an intrinsic characteristic of stocks; it’s more a characteristic of the investor”: Why stocks’ volatility doesn’t fluster younger investors, but freaks out older investors (14:38) • On how we tend to overrate our risk tolerance: “The difference between being able to see (losses) in a spreadsheet and actually manage (through losses) in real time is the difference between crashing an airplane in a flight simulator and in the real world” (15:38) • “If you’ve won the game, stop playing”: How to shake older investors out of their complacency with equity risk and recency bias (16:53) • “The very best physicians are consumed by self-doubt”: How a high ratio of “rumination-to-celebration” can help investors constructively reckon with shortcomings in their approach and improve (19:26) • Getting it wrong and therefore right: Bill explains how advisors can use their own fallibility and uncertainty to fortify their relationship with clients (versus scaring them to death) (21:12) • An argument with Jack Bogle: How a debate with the Vanguard founder about foreign-stock investing became an object lesson in how reality intrudes on theory (and how that informs Bill’s approach to managing clients) (22:56) • “You don’t appreciate it until bad things happen”: On whether the rally in riskier bonds has changed Bill’s tune on limiting fixed-income investments to short-term, high-grade fare (24:25) • “Investment is a process that transfers wealth to people that have a strategy and can execute it from those who don’t and can’t” (26:22) • “A reasonable hypothesis, but it got tested” (and failed): Bill on the argument for active bond investing (27:02) • Earthquakes and execrable returns: Why the best investing and economic gains have been realized in English-speaking countries. (Hint: It’s the law.) (27:48) • Emerging-markets stocks: Why they’re only a bargain when they’re cheap relative to their own history and developed markets (and still might not be inexpensive even in that case) (30:23) • Potential hazards: “The US markets are significantly overvalued relative to the rest of the world” (31:36) • “You’d have your head handed to you”: On the impermanence of investment measures, why it’s dangerous to extrapolate, and the implications for investors (32:54) • “When I think about my tombstone, ‘investment adviser’ is not one of the things I want to see up there” (34:00) • “We’re extremely choosy in who we take on. So we have a very enjoyable practice as a result of that” (35:49) • On retirement preparedness: “A slow-moving and fairly impressive disaster” (37:13) • “I don’t think the system needs nudges. I think the system needs dynamite”: Steps to radically redefine the retirement system (39:20) • “It would be nice if we had a system where people didn’t have to save quite so much, because that’s an unattainable goal for probably 80% of the population” (40:41) • The skunk-in-the-suburb analogy: We’re evolved to avoid the snake or the tiger, not to plan for retirement fifty years into the future (41:24) • What to do for investors who aren’t interested in finance or good with numbers: Limit investor autonomy, provide a generous match, offer a low-cost menu, default them into a target-date fund (43:03) • “One of the most important people in my life”: Remembering Jack Bogle (44:32) • “Something that everyone knows isn’t worth knowing”: Bill on the under-appreciated importance of corporate governance to security returns (46:46) • How Bill navigates ESG with his clients: He discourages them from pursuing it (49:25) • Principled but “bending”: How humility should make room for other ideas or priorities within a portfolio or plan (51:05)   • William Bernstein bio (CFA Institute) https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/author/williamjbernstein/ • William Bernstein’s “Efficient Frontier” website http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ • Mean-variance optimization: Explainer https://www.effisols.com/basics/MVO.htm • William Bernstein’s reading list http://www.efficientfrontier.com/reading.htm • Fama and French research papers https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1455 • “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” by Burton G. Malkiel https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393081435/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1324493412&sr=1-1 • “Bogle on Mutual Funds” by Jack Bogle https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/111908833X/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i4 • “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing-Practical/dp/0060555661/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1324493602&sr=1-1 • “The Theory of Interest” by Irving Fisher https://www.amazon.com/Theory-Interest-Illustrated-Irving-Fisher-ebook/dp/B00CR32KGK • “The Arithmetic of Active Management” by William F. Sharpe • https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/active/active.htm • Active Share website https://activeshare.nd.edu/ • “Presidential Address: Discount Rates” by John H. Cochrane https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/discount_rates_jf.pdf • Value (aka “book-to-market”) factor http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/Data_Library/det_form_btm.html • Momentum factor http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/Data_Library/det_mom_factor.html • Profitability factor http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/Data_Library/tw_5_ports_beme_op.html • “Your Complete Guide to Factor-based Investing” by Andrew L. Berkin and Larry E. Swedroe • https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N7FCW2D/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1 • Factor performance http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html#Research • Berkshire Hathaway 2018 shareholder letter http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2018ltr.pdf • “Betting Against Beta” by Andrea Frazzini and Lasse Heje Pedersen http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/BettingAgainstBeta.pdf • “Betting Against Beta” factor vs. value factor performance (10 years ended Feb. 2019) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-statistics?s=y&factorDataSet=-1&marketArea=0&__checkbox_ffmkt=true&__checkbox_ffsmb=true&__checkbox_ffsmb5=true&ffhml=true&__checkbox_ffhml=true&__checkbox_ffmom=true&__checkbox_ffrmw=true&__checkbox_ffcma=true&__checkbox_ffstrev=true&__checkbox_ffltrev=true&__checkbox_aqrmkt=true&__checkbox_aqrsmb=true&__checkbox_aqrhml=true&__checkbox_aqrhmldev=true&__checkbox_aqrmom=true&__checkbox_aqrqmj=true&aqrbab=true&__checkbox_aqrbab=true&__checkbox_trm=true&__checkbox_cdt=true&startDate=03%2F01%2F2009&endDate=03%2F31%2F2019 • “The Intelligent Asset Allocator” by William J. Bernstein https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0071385290/ref=s9_simz_gw_s0_p14_i1?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=center-2&pf_rd_r=1NNWXTETT62HJ8QM9ZM6&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=470938631&pf_rd_i=507846 • “Availability” heuristic https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/availability-heuristic/ • Dunning-Kruger effect https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10626367 • “Why Jack Bogle Doesn’t Own Non-U.S. Stocks” with Christine Benz and Jack Bogle (Oct. 22, 2018) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54trh0Rre8 • “Will Active Stock Funds Save Your Bacon in a Downturn?” by Jeffrey Ptak https://www.morningstar.com/articles/852864/will-active-stock-funds-save-your-bacon-in-a-downt.html • “Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century” by Philippe Jorion and William N. Goetzmann, Journal of Finance https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/0022-1082.00133 • “Legal Determinants of External Finance” by Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silane, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny, NBER Working Paper https://www.nber.org/papers/w5879 • Online Data Robert Shiller http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm • S&P 500 Shiller PE Ratio https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe • S&P 500 Price/earnings ratio https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio • S&P 500 Price/book ratio https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book • National Retirement Risk Index, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College https://crr.bc.edu/special-projects/national-retirement-risk-index/ • “National Retirement Risk Index Shows Modest Improvements in 2016” by Alicia H. Munnell, Wenliang Hou, Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College https://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/IB_18-1.pdf • “In Memoriam”, William J. Bernstein, Efficient Frontier http://efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/RIP-JCB.html • David Yermack, Albert Fingerhut Professor of Finance and Business Transformation, NYU Sterm, Publications https://its.law.nyu.edu/facultyprofiles/index.cfm?fuseaction=profile.publications&personid=20547

In Episode 70 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andrei Shleifer, professor of economics at Harvard University. Dr. Shleifer is the most cited economist in the world according to RePEc’s database. Throughout the course of his career, Andrei Shleifer has worked in the areas of comparative corporate governance, law & finance, behavioral finance, as well as institutional economics. He has published seven books, including, A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility with his co-author Nicola Gennaioli.    Demetri’s conversation with Andrei centers on the subject of beliefs: how they impact markets and how economists and financial practitioners are attempting to model them using data about people’s expectations, assumptions, and attitudes in order to make better-informed investment and policy decisions. The first half of the episode is devoted to exploring the mechanics of the 2007-2008 credit crisis, and the role played by structured products and derivatives, off-balance sheet vehicles, money market funds, GSE’s, and a policy of ultra-low interest rates that fueled over-confidence in the power of regulators and in the sustainability of the status quo. In the second half, Dr. Shleifer provides us with a more formal approach to thinking about Hyman Minsky’s instability hypothesis and how market participants can draw radically different conclusions about that same data when their beliefs about the world change dramatically. Given the destabilizing forces of populist politics, trade tensions, and changing geopolitical fault lines, the ability to draw valuable insights from data about expectations and beliefs is invaluable for any investor or policymaker looking to gain a sense of market sentiment: where it stands and where it might be going. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Al Hunt, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and June Grasso, June Grasso, legal analyst and co-host of Bloomberg Law, on the political and legal implications surrounding reports that Rod Rosenstein is resigning or being fired. Barry Parkin, Chief Sustainability Officer for Mars Inc., on the company's plan to reduce the carbon footprint of its business and supply chain by more than 60% by 2050. Andrei Shleifer, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, discusses the financial crisis and his new book, A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Investment Management Chief Market Strategist, on the rise of gender-lens investing and their new "Womenomics" fund. Hosted by Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramo

Interview par Jean-Philippe BONARDI, professeur HEC

Interview par Jean-Philippe BONARDI, professeur HEC