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Today's guests are Wes Gray, Co-CIO of Alpha Architect, and Brent Sullivan, Editor of Tax Alpha Insider, which is the only publication focused on taxable portfolio strategy. In today's episode, Brent Sullivan and Wes Gray discuss how to handle concentrated stock positions. They explore the complexities around 351 ETF exchanges, what investors need to know when participating to adhere to tax laws. To close, they examine the rise of tax-managed long-short strategies and how AI may transform tax planning and portfolio management. (0:00) Starts (1:18) Brent Sullivan's background (3:36) Handling concentrated stock positions (7:32) 351 to ETF conversions (14:49) Regulatory scrutiny & IRS enforcement (27:39) Rebalancing, tax implications and practical advisor advice (34:09) Future ETF seeding predictions (39:01) Comparing ETF seeding and portfolio consolidation strategies (45:48) Long short strategies (52:23) Brent Sullivan's book and conference ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The best decision-makers aren't better at deciding. They're better at controlling when, where, and how they decide. It took me twenty years to figure that out. Most people spend that time trying harder: more discipline, more willpower, more resolve to think clearly under pressure. It doesn't work. That's when mindjacking wins. Not through force. Through the door you left unguarded. The answer isn't trying harder. It's building systems that protect your thinking before the pressure hits. By the end of this episode, you'll have four concrete strategies for doing exactly that, and a one-page system you'll build before we're done. And I have something else to share at the end. Something I've been working toward for twenty years. Let's get into it. Why Willpower Fails and Design Works Ulysses knew his ship would pass the island of the Sirens. He also knew the song was irresistible. Sailors who heard it became incapacitated and drove straight into the rocks. He didn't try to be stronger than it. He had his crew fill their ears with wax and tie him to the mast, with strict orders not to release him, no matter what he said when the music reached him. His calm self setting rules for his compromised self. That's the core of everything in this episode. These are called commitment devices. The decision gets made early, when your thinking is clear, before you're tempted to take the wrong path. Studies tracking self-imposed contracts found that when people added meaningful stakes to their commitments, their follow-through nearly doubled. Not because they became more virtuous, but because they'd taken the choice off the table at the moment they were most likely to get it wrong. Stop asking "How do I resist?" Start asking, "What can I decide now, so I don't have to decide under pressure?" Before you can build the right commitments, you need to know exactly where your thinking breaks down. Not decision-making in general. Yours. Finding Your Personal Vulnerability Think back across the last few months. Where did your thinking most clearly cost you? Some people stall. They keep researching past the point of useful information, using "I need more data" as cover for avoiding a commitment they know they need to make. Others make their worst calls at the end of long days. Saying yes when they mean no, because no requires energy they've already spent. Some get caught by urgency. A deadline appears, the pressure closes off their thinking, and they move fast. Only later do they discover the deadline was manufactured to do exactly that. Others walk into a room with a clear position and walk out agreeing with the loudest voice, unable to explain exactly when they shifted. And some defend decisions past the point where the evidence says stop, because stopping would mean admitting something about themselves they're not ready to face. Identify yours. Write it down before we go further. Your primary vulnerability is a design target, not a character flaw. You can't build around something you haven't named. Four Strategies for Protecting Your Judgment Strategy 1: Control When You Decide Every morning I put on the same thing: a black golf shirt, blue jeans, and cowboy boots. Same brands, same routine, no decisions. My wife tolerates it. I've stopped apologizing for it. It's not a fashion choice. It's a cognitive load choice. Your brain has a finite amount of decision-making capacity each day. Every trivial choice draws from the same reserve you need for the decisions that actually matter. What to wear, what to eat, which route to take. Eliminating those choices doesn't just save time. It protects the mental fuel you'll need later. Decision-making capacity isn't flat across the day. It peaks early, when you're rested and fresh. It degrades, measurably, as conditions erode. The same call made at 8 a.m. and at the end of your seventh consecutive meeting aren't equivalent. Same person, different machine. Pull up your calendar from the last two weeks. Look at when your biggest decisions actually happened. For most people, it's not in a calm moment with a clear head. It's in the hallway, on a rushed call, in the last fifteen minutes of a meeting that ran over. That's not bad luck. That's the default you haven't changed yet. Write a standing rule: no significant, hard-to-reverse commitments after a certain hour or after a certain number of back-to-back meetings without a mandatory pause. Hold it like a policy, not a preference. Because preferences are exactly what disappear under the conditions where you need them most. Strategy 2: Build Your Kitchen Cabinet One of the things I credit most for whatever success I've had in my career isn't a framework or a methodology. It's four people. I call them my kitchen cabinet. They've seen my best decisions and my worst ones. They know when I'm rationalizing. They know when I'm avoiding. And they are not afraid to call me out when I'm off the tracks. Here's what surprises people when I describe them. They're not senior executives. They're not peers from inside my industry. They don't work in any organization I've ever worked for. They're a deliberate mix: different backgrounds, different areas of expertise, different ways of seeing the world. One of them has been in my cabinet for nearly thirty years. I trust them completely, and everything we discuss stays between us. That independence is the whole point. The people inside your organization have something at stake in your decisions. Your peers have their own agendas, even when they don't mean to. Your boss has a preferred outcome. None of that makes them bad advisors. It just means they can't give you the one thing you need most when a decision gets hard: a perspective with no skin in the game. Your kitchen cabinet can. Because they have nothing to gain or lose from what you decide, they can ask the question everyone else in the room is avoiding. They can tell you what you don't want to hear. And they'll do it before you've committed, when it still matters, not after the fact, when all they can do is watch. Build yours deliberately. Four to six people is enough. Prioritize independence over seniority. Look for people who will push back, not people who will reassure. And make the relationship reciprocal. You show up for their decisions too. The cabinet only works if the trust runs both ways and the conversations stay private. You don't need them for every decision. You need them for the ones where you're most at risk of fooling yourself. Strategy 3: Write Your Position Before the Room Fills Up I've sat in enough rooms where I walked in with a clear position and walked out having said almost none of it. Not because I was wrong. Because by the time the senior voice spoke and the heads started nodding, my own analysis felt less certain than it did twenty minutes earlier. The brain doesn't just nudge your answer when social pressure arrives. It rewrites your perception. What you saw before entering the room changes to match what the room already believes, before you've consciously registered the pressure. Before any consequential group decision, write down where you stand. Three sentences. What you believe. What evidence supports it. What would genuinely change your mind. A note on your phone is enough. It doesn't need to be formal. It needs to be external, because your memory will quietly revise itself once the social pressure arrives. Those three sentences are a record of what you actually concluded before the room had a chance to work on you. When the discussion moves toward a position, you can then distinguish between "I'm updating because I heard something new" and "I'm caving because the silence is uncomfortable." Without that record, those two experiences feel identical in the moment, and one of them will reliably win. Strategy 4: Assume the Failure Before You Commit In August 2016, Delta Air Lines ran a routine scheduled test of the backup generator at their Atlanta data center. A transformer caught fire. Three hundred of Delta's 7,000 servers, improperly connected to a single power source, went dark. They couldn't fail over to backups. The servers that stayed online couldn't communicate with the ones that hadn't. The entire system collapsed: passenger check-in, baggage, websites, kiosks, and airport displays. Gone. Delta cancelled 2,100 flights over three days. $150 million in losses. Thousands of passengers slept on airport floors. The system had redundancy designed in. The backup had been tested. The specific failure mode, servers with no alternate power connection, was a known vulnerability that nobody had ever stopped to question. A year before the fire, cognitive psychologist Gary Klein, the researcher who developed the pre-mortem, had written a thought experiment describing almost this exact scenario. Imagine, he wrote, that an airline CEO gathered top management and asked: "Every one of our flights around the world has been cancelled for two straight days. Why?" People would think terrorism first. The real progress, Klein said, would come from mundane answers: a reservation system down, a backup that didn't activate, a cascade nobody had traced in advance. Delta built what Klein described. Without running the question that would have found it. The pre-mortem is that question. Before you commit to a significant decision, assume it's six months later, and the decision failed. Not possibly, but definitely. Then ask: What went wrong? What did you know but not say? What did someone sense but find too awkward to raise in the room? "What could go wrong?" produces hedged answers. People soften concerns to preserve harmony. "It failed. What happened?" changes the psychology entirely. You're not being negative. You're being forensic. The things that surface, the concerns that felt impolitic, the risks that seemed too small to mention, are frequently the ones that end up mattering most. Each of these four strategies is a designed defense against the same thing: the systematic capture of your judgment before you notice it happening. That's mindjacking. And now you have four ways to make it harder. But strategies only work if you remember to use them. And you won't remember. Not when you're depleted at 7pm, not when the room is staring at you, not when your identity is on the line. That's not a character flaw. That's just how it works. So we're going to take everything you just learned and put it on one page. A page you'll sign. A page you'll keep somewhere you'll actually see it. Your calm self, right now, is building the system your future self will thank you for. The people who shape outcomes consistently aren't necessarily the sharpest thinkers in the room. They're the ones whose judgment is still intact when everyone else's has degraded. That's a practice, not a talent. The full video and written deep-dive on mindjacking are linked below at philmckinney.com/mindjacking. Your Decision Constitution Remember the Ulysses insight from the beginning of this episode. Your calm self setting rules for your compromised self. That's exactly what this is. A Decision Constitution is one page. Five commitments. Written when your thinking is clear, so the version of you under pressure has something to stand on. Not a to-do list. Not a productivity hack. A contract with yourself. Here's what goes in it. Your Timing Rule. You already know that your judgment degrades as the day runs long. So name it. What are the specific conditions (time of day, number of back-to-back meetings, hours of sleep) that disqualify you from making a high-stakes, hard-to-reverse call without a mandatory pause first? Write that line. Hold it like a policy. Your Pre-Decision List. Think of the situations where you consistently make choices you later regret. The late-day request you said yes to when you meant no. The urgency that overrode your better judgment. Pick three. Write a standing rule for each, specific enough that you can invoke it without having to think. "I don't make new commitments without sleeping on it." That's a rule. "I'll try to be more careful" is not. Your Pre-Meeting Anchor. Before any meeting where a significant decision will be made, you write down where you stand. Three sentences. What you believe, what evidence supports it, and what would genuinely change your mind. Not in the car on the way. Before. That record is what protects your thinking from the room. Your Pre-Mortem Trigger. Name the threshold that makes a decision significant enough to require a pre-mortem. A dollar amount. An impact on more than a certain number of people. A commitment lasting longer than six months. Whatever your threshold is, write it down. Once a decision crosses it, the pre-mortem is non-negotiable. Your Kitchen Cabinet Trigger. Your cabinet is only useful if you engage them before you've decided, not after. So name the conditions that require you to bring a decision to them first. A decision that's hard to reverse. A situation where you have significant personal stakes in the outcome. A moment where you notice everyone around you wants you to decide a certain way. A decision you find yourself avoiding thinking about clearly. Any one of those is enough. Two or more is non-negotiable. Now print out your decision constitution. Sign it. Put it somewhere you'll actually see it before the moments that count. This is your Ulysses contract. Your clear-headed self, right now, is setting the terms your compromised self will have to honor when the pressure is real, and the easy path is pointing the wrong way. Closing That's Part 2 of the Thinking 101 series. Fifteen episodes. If you've been here from the beginning, you've built something real. The series has been running for 21 weeks. The show behind it has been running for 20 years. And how we got here traces back to a single conversation. Twenty years ago, a mentor of mine, Bob Davis, gave me a challenge I couldn't shake. I'd asked him how I could ever repay him for what he'd done for my career. He laughed and said I couldn't. The only option, he said, was to pay it forward. That's why this show exists. That's why it has always existed. The show was called Killer Innovations because that's what felt right in 2005. Bold, a little provocative, built for a moment when podcasting was brand new, and nobody knew what it was supposed to be. Tens of millions of downloads later, we're still here. We have regular listeners in more than 50 countries. Some of you are younger than the podcast itself. But somewhere along the way, the show became something more specific. It stopped being about innovation tips and started being about the innovation decisions that actually shape outcomes. About the patterns underneath the decisions. About the skills that matter most when the pressure is real. On March 23rd, the show's 20th anniversary, we're making major changes. The podcast. The YouTube channel. All of it. And if you have thoughts about where we've been or where we're going, I want to hear them. There's a contact form at philmckinney.com. Send me a note. I'll see you on the 23rd. Endnotes "their follow-through nearly doubled": Gharad Bryan, Dean S. Karlan, and Scott Nelson, "Commitment Contracts," Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 73 / Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 980 (October 23, 2009). https://ssrn.com/abstract=1493378. The research draws on Karlan and co-founders' development of StickK.com, a commitment contract platform launched in 2008 at Yale. Platform data consistently shows that users who add meaningful stakes — financial or reputational — to their commitments achieve their goals at roughly double the rate of those who don't. The underlying mechanism was established in Karlan's earlier field research in the Philippines: Nava Ashraf, Dean Karlan, and Wesley Yin, "Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence From a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines," Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 2 (May 2006): 635–672. doi:10.1162/qjec.2006.121.2.635. https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/121/2/635/1884028. Pre-commitment works not by increasing virtue but by removing the decision from the moment of temptation. For accessible application, see Ian Ayres, Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done (New York: Bantam, 2010), ISBN 978-0-553-80763-9. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/6794/carrots-and-sticks-by-ian-ayres/. "a finite amount of decision-making capacity each day": Roy F. Baumeister, Ellen Bratslavsky, Mark Muraven, and Dianne M. Tice, "Ego Depletion: Is the Active Self a Limited Resource?" Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 74, no. 5 (1998): 1252–1265. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.74.5.1252. https://roybaumeister.com/1998/03/16/ego-depletion-is-the-active-self-a-limited-resource/. Also see Roy F. Baumeister and John Tierney, Willpower: Rediscovering the Greatest Human Strength (New York: Penguin, 2011). Baumeister's strength model of self-control proposes that willpower, decision-making, and self-regulation all draw from a single, depletable resource — what he termed "ego depletion." Subsequent work has debated the precise mechanism, with some researchers arguing the effect is motivational rather than metabolic. The practical implication, however, is consistent across studies: decision quality degrades as the day progresses, and the effect is most pronounced for complex, high-stakes choices. For a summary of the current scientific debate on the mechanism, see Michael Inzlicht and Brandon J. Schmeichel, "What Is Ego Depletion? Toward a Mechanistic Revision of the Resource Model of Self-Control," Perspectives on Psychological Science 7, no. 5 (2012): 450–463. doi:10.1177/1745691612454134. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26168503/. "It rewrites your perception": Gregory S. Berns, Jonathan Chappelow, Caroline F. Zink, Giuseppe Pagnoni, Megan E. Martin-Skurski, and Jim Richards, "Neurobiological Correlates of Social Conformity and Independence During Mental Rotation," Biological Psychiatry 58, no. 3 (August 1, 2005): 245–253. doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2005.04.012. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15978553/. This fMRI study at Emory University extended Solomon Asch's classic conformity experiments by imaging participants' brains as they conformed to or resisted incorrect group answers. The key finding: when participants went along with the group, the activity appeared not in the prefrontal cortex — the seat of conscious decision-making — but in the occipital-parietal network responsible for visual and spatial perception. In other words, participants who conformed weren't consciously deciding to lie; the group had altered what they actually perceived. Standing alone, by contrast, activated the amygdala, a region associated with emotional distress — consistent with the experience of social dissent as genuinely uncomfortable rather than merely inconvenient. "Three hundred of Delta's 7,000 servers": Yevgeniy Sverdlik, "Delta: Data Center Outage Cost Us $150M," Data Center Knowledge, September 8, 2016. https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/outages/delta-data-center-outage-cost-us-150m. Also see W. H. Highleyman, "Delta Air Lines Cancels 2,100 Flights Due to Power Outage," Availability Digest (September 2016). https://availabilitydigest.com/public_articles/1109/delta.pdf. On the morning of August 8, 2016, a fire triggered during a routine backup generator test at Delta's Atlanta data center caused a transformer failure. Approximately 300 of Delta's 7,000 servers were improperly connected to a single power source with no alternate feed, and when that feed failed, those servers went dark. Because those servers couldn't communicate with the rest of the system, the entire network collapsed. Delta cancelled roughly 2,100 flights over three days, leaving an estimated 250,000 passengers stranded. Total losses reached $150 million. "cognitive psychologist Gary Klein, the researcher who developed the pre-mortem": Gary Klein, "Performing a Project Premortem," Harvard Business Review 85, no. 9 (September 2007): 18–19. https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem. Klein developed the pre-mortem method over several decades of applied research in naturalistic decision-making. The technique asks teams to assume, before committing to a plan, that the plan has already failed — definitively, not possibly — and then work backward to identify causes. Klein's research found that this reframing dramatically increases the willingness of team members to surface concerns they would otherwise suppress to preserve group harmony. The method has since been endorsed by Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler as a practical tool for reducing overconfidence in planning. For Klein's broader framework of naturalistic decision-making, see Gary Klein, Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998). https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262343251/sources-of-power/.
Questions? Comments? Episode suggestions? Send us a text message!From the archive: Episode #193: Phill Agnew is a marketing expert and host of the highest-ranking marketing podcast in the UK. He explains what behavioural science involves, how to use marketing principles to get a pay rise, and how to persuade your boss you have a good idea.What you'll learn[01:30] How Phill became a marketing expert.[02:49] How curiosity gaps work.[03:48] What behavioural science involves.[05:30] What a “nudge means in a behavioural science context.[07:16] The difference between a nudge and manipulating someone.[09:16] The variable reward techniques gambling apps use to get you addicted to them.[13:18] How social media uses variable rewards to keep you browsing.[14:08] Positive ways variable rewards can be used.[15:15] How to use anchoring to negotiate a salary rise.[18:26] The problems with anchoring.[19:28] Using loss aversion to get a pay rise.[21:15] How to use the commitment principle and consistency principle to get a pay rise. [24:11] The power of “no” and the door-in-the-face technique.[26:52] How to have a difficult conversation with a colleague.[28:48] What supercommunicators do and how they communicate.[33:20] Techniques you can use when business networking.[36:10] How to persuade your boss that you have a good idea.[42:08] How giving people autonomy changes how they respond.[45:12] How to use behavioural science in the workplace.Resources mentioned in this episodePlease note that some of these are affiliate links and we may get a commission in the event that you make a purchase. This helps us to cover our expenses and is at no additional cost to you.Nudge, Richard Thaler and Cass SunsteinDecoded, Phil BardenHooked, Nir EyalIndistractable, Nir EyalOctopus EnergyDishoomNever Split the Difference, Chris VossYou Have More Influence Than You Think, Vanessa BohmsThe Power of Habit, Charles DuhiggSupercommunicators, Charles DuhiggHow To Win Friends and Influence People, Dale CarnegieNudge: Can Charles Duhigg Make Me Popular?Episode 183: The secrets to effective business development and getting more clients - with Deb Feder of Feder DevelopmentInfluence, Robert CialdiniThe Art of Thinking Clearly, Rolf Dobellihttps://changeworklife.com/using-behavioural-
My guest today is Kristin Olson, Global Head of Alternatives for Wealth at Goldman Sachs. Last year she was named one of the 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance by Barron's. In today's episode, Kristin discusses the explosive growth of the alternatives market over the past decade. She explains what has driven interest from individual investors, particularly millennials, and touches on recent volatility within software and private credit BDCs. Finally, she shares her expectations for the 2026 IPO market, the potential for renewed interest in hedge funds, and how AI is set to reshape sourcing, underwriting, and portfolio construction. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Introduction of Kristin Olson (3:16) Evolution of alternative investments (10:19) Secondary strategies (13:05) Private equity alpha and liquidity concerns (19:13) Private credit market concerns (22:29) Manager selection and due diligence (24:17) Non-traditional investments and hedge fund interest (27:17) Millennial interest in alternatives (31:40) Infrastructure and global opportunities ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect's LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th here. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit www.funds.alphaarchitect.com Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Global Ed Leaders | International School Leadership Insights
Teachers spend years learning to coach people. Ask questions, not give answers. Build trust before expecting vulnerability. Hold space. Stay quiet when staying quiet is the hardest thing.Then they get promoted. And most of it disappears.Chris Scorer — school leader, data specialist, and co-host of Education Leaders Live — said it plainly this month: "You'd never walk into a classroom and tell kids to do something just because you're telling them to. Yet leadership very often does exactly that."If you've ever watched that gap open up — between what you know good leadership looks like and what actually happens under pressure — you're in the right place. You're not the only one who's seen it.This is Education Leaders Live, the monthly companion show to the Education Leaders podcast. Each month, host Shane Leaning and Chris Scorer sit down with the listeners who show up live to unpack the best conversations from the feed. This month they hit a milestone — Episode 150 — and three conversations that kept pulling at the same uncomfortable question.Why coaching programmes fail If you've ever launched a coaching initiative in a school and watched it quietly dissolve, Gene Tevonetti's research will probably explain why. After working with hundreds of schools, he found it's almost never the method that fails. It's one unresolved question that nobody answered at the start: what gets shared, what stays private, and who actually agreed on that before the coaching began? Confidentiality isn't just a detail. It's the foundation — and most schools pour it last.Why smart leaders make terrible decisions You're not irrational. You're human. Shane walked through five cognitive biases that show up constantly in school leadership — anchoring, availability, the endowment effect, groupthink, and optimism bias. Chris brought an unexpected angle: Richard Thaler built behavioural economics to help people understand how we actually make decisions, not the tidy rational-actor fiction economists had been selling for decades. Then it came out he'd run workshops for Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk on how to use that same understanding to manipulate people through their websites. Chris was genuinely heartbroken. He contrasted it with Tim Berners-Lee, who simply gave the internet to the world with no IP, no commercial conditions, nothing. "With great power comes great responsibility," Shane said. It might be the most honest five seconds of the month.The future of British international schools (Episode 150 milestone) Simon Probert introduced an idea that's quietly reshaping how the best international schools think: rooted cosmopolitanism. There's a difference between raising students to be "global citizens" — a well-meaning idea that can leave young people belonging to nowhere — and students who are deeply anchored in their own culture and genuinely open to the world. As demographics shift in international school cities like Shanghai, this stops being philosophical. What is your school actually for? Do all your stakeholders agree? And if they don't, whose job is it to sort that out?Chris also had his "Chris Solves the World" moment. One practical step that any international school could take tomorrow. It involves language. Worth staying for.You can join Shane and Chris live every last Thursday of the month at educationleaders.live, on LinkedIn, or on YouTube — 6pm Shanghai / 10am UK. Bring your thoughts, your pushback, and your own stories from the field. That's what this show is built for.If this is your world, we'd genuinely love to have you in the room.
My guest today is Aswath Damodaran, a professor at NYU, where he teaches corporate finance and equity valuation. In today's episode, Professor Damodaran explains why he trimmed two Magnificent Seven stocks. He digs into AI's real impact on valuations and moats, why big software incumbents face an Innovator's Dilemma, and why the biggest risk isn't tech spending itself, but overconfidence and debt-fueled capex that could ripple beyond tech. He also weighs in on corporate Bitcoin balance sheets, sports franchises as “trophy assets” driven by billionaire demand rather than cash flows, and the rise of prediction markets. (0:00) Starts (0:34) Professor Damodaran on the Magnificent Seven (7:26) OpenAI's growth, AI's impact on valuations, and software industries (16:07) High capex investment risks (23:10) Market timing (33:43) Trust and the rise of gold and silver (45:12) Cryptocurrencies on company balance sheets (47:42) Sports franchises (52:27) Prediction markets ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This episode of The Power of Zero Show sees David McKnight discussing the single most hated retirement strategy in America: annuities. Interestingly enough, annuities are also one of the most powerful tools you can use to protect yourself from the biggest financial risk you face in retirement. Longevity risk, a retirement danger most retirees never fully grasp, is the reason why this topic matters so much. As David explains, "Longevity risk is the risk of living longer than you expected, running out of money before you run out of life." While some people shrug longevity risk off as a good problem to have, it's actually the biggest risk in retirement (from a financial standpoint), as it is a risk amplifier. In other words, it magnifies everything else that can go wrong – such as inflation, long-term care, withdrawal risk, and sequence of returns risk. The reasons why many people hate annuities are legitimate, while others are propaganda. For more than 20 years, Kenneth Fisher has led a massive anti-annuity crusade. Remember: there's only one way to truly eliminate longevity risk from your retirement, and that's through a guaranteed lifetime stream of income in the form of an annuity. Research on annuities – something that has been ongoing for the last four decades – has shown that people with a guaranteed lifetime income tend to spend more freely in retirement than people living solely off an investment portfolio. David touches upon Richard Thaler's concept of the Annuity Puzzle. Annuities solve a problem that no stock portfolio ever can: a portfolio can't guarantee lifetime income you cannot outlive. With the American national debt exploding, which would probably lead to higher tax rates, an internal Roth conversion allows you to get ahead of that. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Kenneth "Ken" Fisher Richard Thaler
When Richard Thaler first published Nudge, the world was just starting to believe in his brand of behavioral economics. In this 2021 episode, we ask: How has nudge theory held up in the face of a global financial meltdown, a pandemic, and other existential crises? SOURCES:Richard Thaler, professor of economics at the University of Chicago. RESOURCES:Nudge: The Final Edition, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2021).Sludge: What Stops Us from Getting Things Done and What to Do About It, by Cass Sunstein (2021)."Sludge: Americans Spend 11.4 Billion Hours Filling Out Federal Paperwork," by Cass Sunstein (Big Think, 2021)."Carbon Taxation in Sweden," by Government Offices of Sweden Ministry of Finance (2021)."The Climate Club: How to Fix a Failing Global Effort," by William Nordhaus (Foreign Affairs, 2020)."Organ Donation: Presumed Consent and Focusing on What Matters," by Rebecca Brown (The Journal of Medical Ethics Blog, 2017). EXTRAS:"Sludge," series by Freakonomics Radio (2025).“People Aren't Dumb. The World Is Hard. (Ep. 340 Rebroadcast),” by Freakonomics Radio (2018). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Today's guest is Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank. In today's episode, Jim walks through lessons from his annual report, The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing, which covers over 200 years of market data from 56 countries. He explains why cash is one of the riskiest long-term assets, how inflation quietly destroys wealth, and why valuation is the single most reliable predictor of long-term returns. He also discusses how fiat money has reshaped bonds, gold, and equities since 1971. To close, Jim reminds us that history consistently rewards investors who buy cheap, diversify globally, and respect long-term market cycles. (0:00) Starts (1:54) Importance of real vs nominal returns (5:36) Historical returns of gold (8:28) Global investment opportunities (18:06) Bond market performance and growth's impact on asset prices (23:11) Potential impact of AI (30:34) Valuation importance (37:03) Index weighting strategies (42:43) Predictors of bond performance and equity return distribution (47:01) Historical periods of high valuations (52:45) Global banking and stock market performance (55:12) Impact of AI on economics ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Visit Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
David McKnight explores one of the most fascinating and misunderstood topics: Retirement planning annuities. In the article Annuitization Puzzles, Economics Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler tries to answer a deceptively simple question: If annuities are so good at protecting retirees from outliving their money, why don't more people buy them? Thaler, one of the founding fathers of behavioral economics, coined the phrase "the annuity puzzle" to describe a striking contradiction between theory and real life. According to traditional economic models, the rational choice would be for retirees to annuitize at least some portion of their wealth – yet, only very few Americans go out and buy a pure life annuity. The answers to this contradiction are almost entirely psychological. Loss aversion, loss of control, complexity and distrust, fear of disinheriting errors, underestimating longevity risks are the key reasons why that happens. David points out that most retirees believe they won't live as long as they actually will;they underestimate the probability of living into their 90s. "The Annuity Puzzle exists because economics assumes we're rational, while real retirees behave like human beings. They're driven by emotions, fears, and biases, not economic data," says David. Remember not all annuities are created equal. David touches upon the key differences between immediate and fixed index annuities. Did you know that, while they aren't stock market replacements, fixed index annuities (FIAs) make for excellent bond alternatives? Furthermore, FIAs do resolve the flexibility and liquidity concerns many retirees face. In his book Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement, David discusses what he considers the most powerful innovation in the annuity space today – he shares more about it in this episode. What he discusses isn't the old single premium immediate annuity you may be familiar with… rather, he illustrates a modern retirement income engine that blends the science of risk pooling with the tax-free advantages of Roth planning. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Annuitization Puzzles by Richard Thaler, Shlomo Benartzi, and Alessandro Previtero S&P 500 Penguin Random House
We all love the thrill of winning - the house, the promotion, the deal. But as Nobel laureate Richard Thaler explains, some of our biggest “wins” are actually the moments we set ourselves up to lose. Thaler breaks down why we overbid, overpay, and talk ourselves into choices we regret. And he shares simple tricks to help you catch yourself before you make a mistake you can't undo.
Today's returning guests are Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers, and D.A. Wallach, a venture capital investor for Time BioVentures. In today's episode, we unpack the recent biotech surge through the lens of Dan's recently published biotech report. We also explore China's growing biotech market, shifting IPO and VC trends, and how valuation tools like CAPE fit into today's regime. Finally, we also discuss technology's effect on productivity and corporate profits in the US, Japan's economic anomaly, home country bias, and more. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Dan's research on the biotech sector (19:10) D.A. on biotech in China (27:01) IPO landscape (31:01) Biotech VC update from D.A. (32:16) Are US stocks overvalued? (51:53) Dan's view of Japanese stocks (57:40) Global equity markets and home country bias (1:03:34) Book recommendations (1:11:55) Wrap-up and future plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- ----- Sponsor: Visit Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With economic systems failing millions of Americans, Jon is joined by Nobel laureate and University of Chicago Professor Richard Thaler, one of the founding fathers of behavioral economics. Together, they explore why conventional economics fails to account for how people actually behave, discuss Thaler's approach to improving systems from within, and debate whether incremental improvements can meaningfully reform broken systems. Plus, Jon talks Nationalizing Voting, Suing Trump, and Bad Bunny vs. Kid Rock! This episode is brought to you by: MAGIC SPOON - Get $5 off your next order at https://magicspoon.com/tws SHARK NINJA ESPRESSO MAKER - Get $60 off the Ninja Luxe Cafe Premier Series with code STEWART exclusively on sharkninja.com while supplies last AVOCADO GREEN MATTRESS - Get 15% off mattresses at https://AvocadoGreenMattress.com/TWS FACTOR - Eat smart at https://FactorMeals.com/TWS50OFF and use code TWS50OFF to get 50% off your first box, plus Free Breakfast for 1 Year. QUINCE - Go to https://Quince.com/TWS for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Follow The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart on social media for more: > YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@weeklyshowpodcast > Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/weeklyshowpodcast> TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@weeklyshowpodcast > X: https://x.com/weeklyshowpod > BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/theweeklyshowpodcast.com Host/Executive Producer – Jon Stewart Executive Producer – James Dixon Executive Producer – Chris McShane Executive Producer – Caity Gray Lead Producer – Lauren Walker Producer – Brittany Mehmedovic Producer – Gillian Spear Video Editor & Engineer – Rob Vitolo Audio Editor & Engineer – Nicole Boyce Music by Hansdle Hsu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In today's radio show, Meb breaks down why market-cap–weighted investing may be nearing its limits after an extraordinary run in U.S. stocks. He explores CAPE ratios near historic extremes, the quiet resurgence of gold and commodities, and why equal weight, value, and global markets are suddenly back in the conversation. To close, Meb explains how trend following and real assets can help investors navigate regime shifts. Note: this was recorded on January 29, 2026. (0:00) Starts (3:03) US stock market update (11:24) Global stock performance (18:03) The role of gold in asset allocation (27:52) Demographics of gold investors (35:47) One-fund portfolios & 351 conversions (42:07) Meb's travel plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
My guest today is Russell Napier, an independent financial market strategist, financial historian, author of The Solid Ground investment report, and founder of the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes. In today's episode, Russell explains why investors are asking the wrong questions at a critical turning point in financial history. He how financial repression, shifting monetary regimes, and political priorities are reshaping capital markets. To close, he explains the dangers of yield chasing, why technology won't defeat inflation, and why gold may be signaling what comes next. (0:00) Starts (3:14) Regime change & parallels to post-World War II Europe (8:06) The search for yield is dangerous (17:38) The disconnect between GDP growth and equity returns (23:14) The impact of inflation & deflation on equity valuations (25:56) Technology doesn't defeat inflation (30:20) Monetary system changes, gold prices, and American exceptionalism (37:50) Extrapolation is the opiate of the people (48:26) Book recommendations ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why do smart people keep making predictably bad decisions? Behavioral economist Alex Imas joins us to unpack The Winner's Curse, loss aversion, and the persistent biases that shape markets, policy, and everyday choices. We explore why classic economic models fall short and what behavioral economics reveals about how humans really decide. Topics [0:00] Introduction and speed round with Alex Imas [11:55] The Winner's Curse and its implications [21:13] Behavioral economics and standard economic matters [28:01] Loss aversion and decision-making [35:04] Behavioral economics in policy and law [41:00] Tom Sawyer economics [47:30] Social media, attention, and exploitation of bias [56:38] The importance of cooperation and social systems [58:40] New music in 2026 [1:07:53] Grooving session: framing, preferences, and happiness ©2026 Behavioral Grooves Links The Winner's Curse by Richard Thaler and Alex Imas About Alex Join us on Substack! Join the Behavioral Grooves community Subscribe to Behavioral Grooves on YouTube Support Behavioral Grooves Musical Links Fontaines DC - I Love You ALEXSUCKS - The Gutter
Today's guest is Richard Bernstein, Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, which he founded in 2009. He was previously the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch. In today's episode, Richard argues that the market is defined by rampant speculation and extreme narrowness. He explains why he's bullish on both dividend-paying and international stocks and believes crypto is the first global investment bubble. To close, he warns that corporate credit is priced for perfection, inflation risks aren't gone, and diversification is the best defense in a bubble-prone market. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Richard on market narrowness & speculation (6:21) The Earnings Expectations Life Cycle (12:33) Non-US stocks are undervalued (18:38) Small cap trends and long-term investment themes (24:14) American Industrialization Renaissance (27:10) Corporate credit risk (33:42) Is the Fed independent? (36:38) Is crypto the first global investment bubble? (41:11) The importance of financial history (46:07) Richard's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Join Alpha Architect's LIVE webinar Feb 3rd to learn if a 351 Exchange may fit your clients' needs. Before the webinar, visit Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner's Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage' opportunities in markets really a free lunch?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Alex on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion25:18 - The winner's curse and common value auctions30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing36:50...
My guest today is Marc Faber, editor of the “Gloom Boom & Doom Report.” In today's episode, Marc explores the unpredictable nature of financial markets, the resurgence of precious metals and how money printing has fueled economic inequality. He argues that bonds are currently under-owned and may offer opportunity, and explains why emerging markets such as Thailand and Vietnam deserve consideration. To close, Marc underscores the importance of diversification in an increasingly uncertain world. (0:00) Starts (2:25) The rise of precious metals (10:18) Impact of money printing on asset prices and social problems (23:14) Bond bull case (29:31) History of wealth redistribution (36:13) Global investment insights: Thailand & beyond (48:40) Importance of diversification ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Want to learn more about 351 Exchanges? Visit Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As Ukraine battles on against Russia’s strikes and US accusations, Monocle’s Julia Jenne joins to discuss. Then: Chris Cermak explores the irrationality of human behaviour with Nobel-Prize laureate Richard Thaler. Plus: are there any upsides to this year’s WEF survey?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
BackgroundBioArticles and Papers Discussed“The Theory Behind the Age-Related Positivity Effect,” Andrew Reed and Laura Carstensen, NIH.gov, Sept. 27, 2012.“Investing Without Blind Spots,” Better Vantage podcast, Nov. 12, 2025.“Out of Sight, Out of Market: The IRA Cash Drag,” by Andy Reed et al., Vanguard.com, Sept. 5, 2024.“Advisors and Investors Split on Inflation, Bond Views,” by Xiao Xu and Andy Reed, Vanguard.com, Sept. 12, 2025.“Stress, Debt, and the Power of Planning,” by Anna Madamba and Andy Reed, Vanguard.com, April 9, 2025“Improving Retirement Outcomes by Default: The Case for an IRA QDIA,” by Andy Reed, et al., Vanguard.com, July 2024."Maximizing versus Satisficing: Happiness Is a Matter of Choice," by Barry Schwartz, Andrew Ward, et al., NIH.gov, November 2002.“The Ostrich Effect: Selective Attention to Information,” George Loewenstein and Duane Seppi, CMU.edu, Feb. 11, 2009.“Inside the Minds of Equity Income Fund Investors,” Sharon Hill and Paulo Costa, Vanguard.com, Aug. 26, 2025.“Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors,” Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, Berkeley.edu, April 2000.Books DiscussedThe Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less, by Barry SchwartzNudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, by Richard Thaler and Cass SunsteinThe Elements of Choice: Why the Way We Decide Matters, by Eric JohnsonOther“Was Bogle's Princeton Thesis Eerily Prescient?” by Jess Bebel, Morningstar.com, May 27, 2022. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Pioneer of behavioural economics Richard Thaler discusses the arc of his career, from ‘heretic’ to Nobel Prize winner, and why it was so difficult to convince economists that behaviour and human nature contradict their theories. Also: his rules for a better way to play Scrabble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
My guest today is Cullen Roche, Chief Investment Officer at Orcam Financial Group and Discipline Funds. His latest book is Your Perfect Portfolio: The ultimate guide to using the world's most powerful investing strategies. In today's episode, Cullen walks through the principles of portfolio construction. He emphasizes the importance of viewing investments as a means of savings rather than a quick path to wealth. Cullen explores the significance of time horizons in investment decisions, why real returns are what matter, and the origins of the 60/40 portfolio. (0:00) Starts (1:38) Principles of portfolio construction (6:12) Real vs nominal returns (11:01) Asset allocation and time horizon considerations (26:59) Evaluating the role of government bonds in portfolios (30:21) Origins of the 60/40 portfolio (37:44) The forward cap portfolio (46:49) The concept of duration in investing (56:23) Disciplined Funds (1:02:39) Asset liability matching (1:03:15) Factors influencing investor behavior ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Asset Management, which manages over $70 billion AUM. Jack was RIA Intel's “CIO of the Year” for 2022 and was previously the CIO at BMO for 17 years. In today's episode, Jack walks through the ins and outs of investing in founder-led companies and what has led them to historically outperform. He also explains his approach to asset allocation, which structures portfolios based on time horizons rather than traditional asset classes. Finally, he offers an outlook for equities and fixed income next year, discusses private market opportunities, and looks at the future of Cresset Asset Management. (0:00) Starts (1:51) Overview of Cresset Asset Management (6:40) Founder-led companies: Advantages and portfolio impact (19:52) Fixed income and private market investment strategies (26:32) Future prospects in Opportunity Zones and equities (31:15) Currency considerations and foreign investment opportunities (37:01) Jack's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Economists like to model people as rational creatures who make self-interested decisions. But humans don't act that way. Why do investors, politicians and ordinary people act against their best interests – and how can they be nudged into making better decisions? To find out, FT economics commentator Chris Giles speaks to Richard Thaler, the founding father of behavioural economics. Thaler is a professor at the University of Chicago who won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on how humans make (often irrational) decisions.This is a repeat of an episode published on The Economics Show, a sister podcast of Behind the Money, on November 7, 2025. Subscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen.Presented by Chris Giles. Produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music by Breen Turner. Sound design by Breen Turner and Samantha Giovinco. Our broadcast engineer is Andrew Georgiades. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Today's guest is David McWilliams, an economist, podcast host and author. David worked at the Central Bank of Ireland, UBS and BNP Paribas and is the founder of the Kilkenomics Festival, a unique blend of economics and stand-up comedy. His book is called The History of Money: A Story of Humanity, which is my favorite book from 2025. In today's episode, David walks through the evolution of money over the last 5,000 years. He explains why money is a foundational social technology that is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic. He delves into historical anecdotes—from clay tablets in Mesopotamia to Gutenberg's printing press to Martin Luther's disruptive influence on the church. Throughout the episode, he emphasizes that economists need to do a better job helping people understand money and its role in navigating modern economic principles. (0:00) Starts (1:26) David explains the Kilkenomics Festival (3:41) David McWilliams on "Money, The History of Money, A Story of Humanity" (9:55) Evolution and trust in money throughout history (26:28) Impact of the Gutenberg printing press and Martin Luther (36:42) Historical perspectives on speculation and losing money (43:18) Future of economics, storytelling, and equity culture differences (49:18) Educating youth on finance and investing ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Learn more about Alpha Architect and important information about the fund: funds.alphaarchitect.com/aaua Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). ----- Ad Disclaimer: This information does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by The Idea Farm. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The Idea Farm does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What makes humans so predictably irrational? Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler and Alex Imas join Guy Kawasaki to reveal the quirks that shape our decisions—from golf greens to stock markets. Drawing from their new book, The Winner's Curse: Then and Now, they revisit the field they helped pioneer: behavioral economics. This episode is a masterclass in understanding why the smartest people make the strangest choices—and how awareness turns mistakes into wisdom.---Guy Kawasaki is on a mission to make you remarkable. His Remarkable People podcast features interviews with remarkable people such as Jane Goodall, Marc Benioff, Woz, Kristi Yamaguchi, and Bob Cialdini. Every episode will make you more remarkable.With his decades of experience in Silicon Valley as a Venture Capitalist and advisor to the top entrepreneurs in the world, Guy's questions come from a place of curiosity and passion for technology, start-ups, entrepreneurship, and marketing. If you love society and culture, documentaries, and business podcasts, take a second to follow Remarkable People.Listeners of the Remarkable People podcast will learn from some of the most successful people in the world with practical tips and inspiring stories that will help you be more remarkable.Episodes of Remarkable People organized by topic: https://bit.ly/rptopologyListen to Remarkable People here: **https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/guy-kawasakis-remarkable-people/id1483081827**Like this show? Please leave us a review -- even one sentence helps! Consider including your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally!Thank you for your support; it helps the show!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Why do people cooperate with one another when they have no (selfish) motivation to do so? Why do we hold onto possessions of little value? And why is the winner of an auction so often disappointed? Hear Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler and his co-author, Alex Imas, discuss these questions, examined in their book The Winner's Curse, with Michael Lewis.Richard H. Thaler received the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. He is a distinguished service professor of economics and behavioral science at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, coauthor of Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (with Cass Sunstein) and the author of Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. Alex O. Imas is a professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Among his honors are the Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, the Review of Financial Studies Rising Scholar Award, and the Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award. Previously, he was an assistant professor of behavioral economics at Carnegie Mellon University.Michael Lewis is known for his meticulous research on far-reaching subjects—from the top-secret world of high-frequency trading (Flash Boys), to baseball (Moneyball), to behavioral economics and the friendship between Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (The Undoing Project), to an account of a band of medical visionaries trying to avert Trump's calamitous response to the COVID-19 outbreak (The Premonition), to the world's youngest billionaire and crypto's Gatsby (Going Infinite). Most recently, he authored Who Is Government?, with contributions from W. Kamau Bell, Sarah Vowell, Dave Eggers, and others.On November 21, 2025, Thaler and Imas visited the Sydney Goldstein Theater in San Francisco to be interviewed on stage by Michael Lewis.
Today's guest is Rick Rieder. Rick oversees more than $2 trillion in assets as the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock. He also heads the Fundamental Fixed Income business and the Global Allocation Investment Team. In today's episode, Rick discusses the current state of the markets, focusing on year-end dynamics, free cash flow at big-tech companies, and the evolving economic landscape since Liberation Day. He explains both what he expects the Fed to do and what he thinks they should do, and how that relates to portfolio construction. The discussion also explores the differences between gambling and investing, lessons from tennis that apply to investing, and much more. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Rick Rieder's market thoughts (4:23) Market sentiment and cash flow impacts (7:18) Small caps, M&A potential, and broad economic concerns (17:12) Interest rate forecasts (21:13) BINC ETF and fixed income outlook (24:28) Gambling vs. investing (31:36) Perspectives on precious metals and technological investment implications (35:27) Investing advice for young people and 2026 outlook ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Richard Thaler is the Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He is the co-author, with Cass Sunstein, of Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness, and is the 2017 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. In this week's conversation, Yascha Mounk and Richard Thaler explore to what extent humans behave rationally, how nudge theory works, and whether we should outsource questions about life to ChatGPT. If you have not yet signed up for our podcast, please do so now by following this link on your phone. Email: leonora.barclay@persuasion.community Podcast production by Mickey Freeland and Leonora Barclay. Connect with us! Spotify | Apple | Google X: @Yascha_Mounk & @JoinPersuasion YouTube: Yascha Mounk, Persuasion LinkedIn: Persuasion Community Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Nick Maggiulli. Nick is the COO for Ritholtz Wealth Management. He writes over at Of Dollars at Data and is the author of two books: Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. In today's episode, Nick discusses the parallels between financial and medical advice, the differences in asset ownership across wealth levels, and the importance of adapting financial strategies over time. He also explores wealth mobility, the role of luck in wealth accumulation, and the challenges of diversification versus concentration in investment strategies. (0:00) Starts (1:38) Nick explains the wealth ladder (6:48) Asset composition across wealth levels (13:48) Human capital and wealth data analysis (19:33) Diversification vs. concentration (22:44) Behavioral finance and investment strategies (25:56) Real estate ownership and investment timing strategies (36:26) Fun investing stats (44:51) Nick's most memorable investment ----- Sponsor: Alpha Architect - Learn more about Alpha Architect and important information about the fund: funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the later part of the 20th century, a pioneering group of economists started shaking up their academic field.These “behavioural economists” used findings from experimental psychology and everyday life to challenge the prevailing view that human beings were rational decision makers – acting in predictable ways to maximize their wealth.One of those pioneers was Richard Thaler, who noted down some of these “anomalies” in a column in the 1980s, which was turned into a book - The Winner's Curse - first published in 1992. His work also won him the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 2017.More than 30 years on, he has returned to that book, publishing a new, updated version with co-author Alex Imas, which looks at whether those anomalies in rational thinking have stood the test of time. Tim asks him to set out two of his most famous ideas – the winner's curse itself, and the idea of “mental accounting”.Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon
How can governments and businesses nudge us to change our behaviour? Are we too easily manipulated by the private sector? How do we design economic policy for the real world, not mythical perfect markets? Robert speaks to the father of behavioural economics and Nobel prize winner Richard Thaler. For investing, savings, and pensions, the smart money's with Wealthify. Open your account today at https://www.wealthify.com. Wealthify is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. With investing, your capital is at risk. Tax treatments depend on individual circumstances and may change in future.Email: restismoney@gmail.com X: @TheRestIsMoney Instagram: @TheRestIsMoney TikTok: @RestIsMoney https://goalhanger.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Today's guest is Antti Ilmanen, Global Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management. In today's episode, Antti discusses the complexities of investment returns, the importance of understanding both objective and subjective expectations, and the dangers of relying on past performance as a guide for future investments. We explore the current state of the US market, the role of diversifiers in portfolios, and the behavioral biases that affect investor decisions. Antti also contrasts the behaviors of bond investors, which tend to be more contrarian, and equity investors, which tend to extrapolate. (0:00) Starts (1:13) Humility in forecasting market expectations (8:26) Comparing institutional and retail investor behavior (24:33) Sentiment analysis in markets (36:18) Bond vs. equity investor mindsets (48:11) Liquid vs. illiquid alternative investments (56:26) The diversification benefits of trend following ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ever put in the winning bid for something on an auction site only to realize you significantly overpaid? Yeah, there's a phrase for that. On today's show: the winner's curse.Richard Thaler's new book with Alex O. Imas is The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now.Read Planet Money's newsletter on the winner's curse. For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Alex Imas is the Roger L. and Rachel M. Goetz Professor of Behavioral Science, Economics and Applied AI and a Vasilou Faculty Scholar at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he has taught Negotiations and Behavioral Economics. He is a Faculty Affiliate of the Center for Applied AI and the Human Capital & Economic Opportunity, an NBER Faculty Research Associate, and a CESifo Research Network Fellow. He is also an Associate Editor at the Journal of the European Economic Association and on the editorial board of Psychological Science. Alex studies behavioral economics with a focus on how people understand and mentally represent the choices they are facing. His research explores topics related to how people learn and make choices in settings with risk and uncertainty. He also studies the economics of artificial intelligence and discrimination. Alex's work utilizes a variety of methods, including controlled laboratory experiments, field experiments, analysis of observational data and theoretical modeling. Alex Imas is the recipient of the 2023 Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, the Review of Financial Studies Rising Scholar Award, the New Investigator Award from the Behavioral Science and Policy Association, the Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award from the Society of Judgment and Decision Making, the Distinguished CESifo Affiliate Award, and the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. He is the co-author, with Richard Thaler, of The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now (Simon and Schuster, 2025). He is an Associate Editor at the Journal of the European Economic Association and on the editorial board of Psychological Science. Alex was born in Bender, Moldova. Previously, he was the William S. Dietrich II Assistant Professor of Behavioral Economics at Carnegie Mellon University, where he taught Behavioral Economics and Human Judgment and Decision Making. He did his PhD in economics at the University of California, San Diego and earned a BA from Northwestern University. Prior to graduate school, Imas helped found a startup and co-authored several patents as part of its intellectual property strategy. Teaching materials for The Winner's Curse can be found here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, where he leads the Master's Program in International and Development Economics at the University of San Francisco. He is also a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center and an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. He created the unique Master's of Science in Applied Economics at the University of San Francisco, which teaches the conceptual frameworks and practical data analytics skills needed to succeed in the digital economy. Guest interviewer Robizon Khubulashvili is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco. His research is at the intersection of theoretical, behavioral, and experimental microeconomics. A common question in his research is, how can we use a user's revealed preferences to improve the performance of online platforms? Robizon has studied this question in two settings: when monetary incentives are missing (an online gaming platform) and when monetary incentives are present (an online gambling platform). His work suggests that heterogeneity among users is an essential consideration in designing better online platforms; that is, a policy benefiting one type of user might harm the other. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network
Today's guest is Chris Clark. Chris was a biotech PM for 10 years at RS Investments, managing $4.5 billion. In today's episode, Chris discusses the complexities of the biotech sector, which has suffered a dramatic drawdown the past few years. He begins by explaining how biotech works, why it's such a unique sector, and what has kept investors and companies frozen the past few years. He also explains the different perspectives of venture capitalists and public market investors, the current regulatory environment and how AI may reshape drug development. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Biotech industry overview (18:09) Can you be a quant in biotech? (25:09) Biotech market cap distribution and benchmark underweighting (34:47) Addressing biotech volatility, market outlook, and non-pro investing tips (47:02) Private vs. public biotech investments (1:01:32) Global biotech markets (China) (1:09:48) AI and regulatory impact on biotech (1:21:14) US healthcare spending (1:33:48) Chris' most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Joe Davis, Vanguard's Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Vanguard's Investment Strategy Group. His latest research on megatrends is covered in his book, Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments. In today's episode, Joe explains why the coming decade for the U.S. economy will be shaped by a tug-of-war between AI and demographics-driven deficits. While the most likely outcome is optimistic (the benefits of AI offset demographic pressures), the next most likely outcome is pessimistic (AI fails to meet our expectations and growth tumbles, putting pressure on the government's balance sheet). Joe emphasizes the need for investors to prepare for non-consensus outcomes and embrace diversification to navigate this uncertain future. Listen to Joe's first appearance on the show in February 2020. (0:00) Starts (1:40) AI's impact on the economy (7:26) Megatrends and technological change (19:18) Financial market signals, narratives, and nonconsensus outcomes (25:23) Comparing hype in AI stocks, gold, and economic scenarios (32:44) Historical technology cycles (41:48) The role of international bonds in a diversified portfolio (47:47) AI's impact on financial advisors (55:10) The future of automation & AI ----- Sponsor: AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Kathryn Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, where she's also the co-portfolio manager for the firm's Managed Futures Strategy and Global Alternatives Strategy. She also co-authored the book Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha. In today's episode, Meb and Katy discuss the tough year for managed futures strategies, which have experienced the 2nd largest drawdown in the last quarter century. Katy walks through the history of drawdowns and recoveries since 2000, explaining investors who have been patient in the past have been rewarded when the strategy recovers. She emphasizes managed futures' ability to serve as a diversifier to stocks, revisits her research on crisis alpha, and touches on the rise of managed futures ETFs as a way for investors to get exposure to this asset class. Listen to Katy's first appearance in May 2021. (0:00) Starts (1:05) Katy's thoughts on managed futures in 2025 (3:31) Lessons from past drawdowns (10:04) The patience premium (17:10) Follow the trends (22:12) Crisis Alpha revisited (26:01) Managed futures accessibility and ETFs (29:35) Replication methods (35:02) Implementing AI ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Standard economic theory informs how we think about business strategy and the economy and presumes that people are selfish, have well-defined preferences, and consistently make welfare-maximizing choices. In other words, we are rational. But what if that is not the case?Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler is out with an updated edition of his bestselling 1991 book, "The Winner's Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life." In the new edition, he and his co-author Alex Imas (both professors at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business) reflect on the last thirty years of behavioral economics and how it makes sense of tensions between our psychological biases and impulses that make us less than fully rational in practice. Using a wealth of empirical evidence, the authors explore the behavioral anomalies that contradict the expectations of standard economic theory and explain a wide range of real-world examples from banking crises to social media addiction.Earlier this month, Thaler joined Bethany and Luigi for a sold-out Capitalisn't recording in front of a live audience in Chicago to walk through the anomalies of human behavior that have endured from biblical times to the age of Big Tech. Thaler reflects on how views and the adoption of behavioral economics have changed over the last thirty years, both within academia and beyond (wonder why you can't put down your phone? Silicon Valley has read Thaler). He also shares how behavioral economics can influence public policy from canceling “junk fees” and dubious subscriptions to deciding which parts of the Affordable Care Act to keep and which are unlikely to produce their desired outcomes. Over conversation, light banter, and audience Q&A, Thaler shares his views on the state of capitalism and reveals how there is no grand unified theory of human behavior that incorporates all its irrationalities—only departures from the standard model. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Today's guest is Peter Levin, co-founder of Griffin Gaming Partners, the largest singularly focused gaming investment vehicle in the world. Peter was previously the CEO and co-founder of Nerdist Industries, which was acquired by Legendary Entertainment. He began his career at CAA, had a stint at Disney, sold a company to UFC, and was also an early advisor and investor to Rovio aka Angry Birds. In today's episode, Peter discusses the evolution of the gaming industry, highlighting the dominance of gaming IP. He touches on the rise of indie games, the impact of AI on the space and why he avoids trends like esports, AR and VR. (0:00) Starts (1:47) Peter Levin's background in gaming (5:37) Gaming's transition to mobile gaming and post-2000s developments (13:49) Comparison of gaming industry to traditional media and the rise of indie gaming (20:45) Changes in gaming revenue models (27:30) VR and AR challenges (35:50) Using a Data-driven approach to invest in gaming startups (47:00) Impact of AI on game development (56:32) Peter's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In today's Mebisode, Meb reads his latest paper, “When to Sell?” ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). ----- The information set forth herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Please see the appropriate professional advisor for advice specific to your situation. There is no guarantee that a particular investment strategy will be successful. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments are subject to risks, including the risk of loss of principal. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
When you ask someone to recall something from deep in their memory, watch their face — they'll probably do something that actually helps them remember. You might do it too without realizing it. Listen as I reveal what it is and why it works. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/ulterior-motives/201110/why-do-you-close-your-eyes-remember Have you heard of the winner's curse or the sunk cost theory? These are strange but predictable ways our brains can trick us when we take risks — especially with money. My guest, Alex O. Imas, Professor of Behavioral Science, Economics, and Applied AI at the University of Chicago, has studied these “behavioral anomalies” with Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. Together they co-authored The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now. (https://amzn.to/48gycBj) . Listen to how these things work, because understanding these anomalies can help keep you from falling victim to them. We've all had to work in groups, whether it's a team we are assigned to at work, or a neighborhood committee or parents' group. Sometimes they run beautifully. Often… they don't. Why do so many groups struggle, and how can we make them more effective? Colin T. Fisher, Associate Professor of Organizations and Innovation at University College London, joins me to share insights that can help any team excel. Colin is author of the book The Collective Edge: Unlocking the Secret Power of Groups.(https://amzn.to/48WcuCT). Whether you cook or not, at some point you find yourself in the kitchen putting food away and you run into the problem of – sometimes the plastic wrap clings to the container and sometimes it does not. Listen to hear the secret of how to get it to stick every time. https://lifehacker.com/run-a-wet-finger-across-surfaces-to-make-plastic-wrap-s-1728185077 PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS!!! INDEED: Get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at https://Indeed.com/SOMETHING right now! DELL: Your new Dell PC with Intel Core Ultra helps you handle a lot when your holiday to-dos get to be…a lot. Upgrade today by visiting https://Dell.com/Deals QUINCE: Layer up this fall with pieces that feel as good as they look! Go to https://Quince.com/sysk for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns! ON POINT: We love the On Point podcast! Listen wherever you get your podcasts! https://www.wbur.org/radio/programs/onpoint Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Brainy Business | Understanding the Psychology of Why People Buy | Behavioral Economics
In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer has the incredible honor of speaking with Dr. Richard Thaler and Dr. Alex Imas, co-authors of the newly reimagined edition of The Winner's Curse. This episode marks a significant milestone in behavioral economics, as Richard Thaler, a Nobel Prize-winning economist and one of the field's pioneers, shares insights into decision-making, choice architecture, and the importance of recognizing anomalies in our choices. Together with Alex, a behavioral economist and professor at the University of Chicago, they discuss the evolution of behavioral economics, the updates included in the new edition of The Winner's Curse, and the relevance of their findings in today's world. Listeners will gain a deeper understanding of how even the most informed individuals can fall into decision-making traps and how concepts like the winner's curse and mental accounting manifest in real-world scenarios, from auctions to the stock market. In this episode: Learn about the significance of recognizing anomalies in decision-making. Discover the evolution of The Winner's Curse and its relevance today. Explore the impact of behavioral economics on real-world applications, such as auctions and market behavior. Understand the implications of AI on consumer behavior and business strategies. Reflect on the long-term value of building trust and relationships in business. Get important links, top recommended books and episodes, and a full transcript at thebrainybusiness.com/543. Looking to explore applications of behavioral economics further? Learn With Us on our website. Subscribe to Melina's Newsletter Brainy Bites. Let's connect: Send Us a Message Follow Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube The Brainy Business on Instagram
Today's guest is Carl Richards. Carl is a Certified Financial Planner, built and sold an investment firm, and hosts the podcast 50 Fires, which is backed by Chip and Joanna Gaines. He's also the author of The Behavior Gap and The One-Page Financial Plan and his newest book is called Your Money: Reimaging Your Wealth with 101 Simple Sketches. In today's episode, Carl discusses the emotional aspects of money and how our perceptions of wealth can be influenced by societal norms and personal experiences. He introduces concepts like the emotional balance sheet and the overnight test for investment decisions, emphasizing the need to align financial choices with personal goals rather than external pressures. The discussion also touches on the impact of news and social media on financial behavior. (0:00) Starts (1:15) Introduction of Carl Richards (5:32) Emotional aspects of money (12:19) The overnight test (20:26) Focusing on what you can control (24:36) Fundamental investing principles (28:11) Social comparisons and social media effects (32:28) The concept of perceived wealth (37:16) Lifestyle inflation and hedonic adaptation (44:39) Diversification and performance chasing performance (48:22) The impact of news on investments and when to sell (52:13) Scarcity vs abundance mindset (54:51) Celebrating milestones, Carl's future plans, and reader responses ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Don swats a studio bug, then swats down the idea of dividend-driven retirement portfolios. Drawing on Jason Zweig's interview with Richard Thaler, they explain why retirees should focus on total return—spending from a diversified portfolio rather than chasing yield. They hit Robinhood's profit model, bid-ask spreads, and the need for automatic-enrollment retirement plans. A listener call leads to a discussion of Social Security timing, debt-free retirement, and (yes) hodgepodge-itis—Don's term for chaotic portfolios. Things wrap with a jailed investor's question, some gallows humor, and the usual banter about holidays and compliance. 0:04 Bug chaos and phone-line reminder 1:41 Why dividend-income portfolios are a trap 2:50 Jason Zweig & Richard Thaler on total-return spending 4:18 Total return beats “high-dividend” illusions 5:39 Robinhood's option-spread profits and the myth of “free” trading 6:15 Schwab vs. Robinhood: relative honesty in bid-ask spreads 7:43 Thaler's take on missing retirement plans and automatic savings 9:05 Anniversary talk and the failed “Debbie Show” experiment 10:15 Back to Thaler—why most workers still lack plans 11:39 Tesla options example showing 7 percent spread 12:05 Case for national retirement depository & hybrid Social Security 13:33 Hodgepodge-itis defined (and owned by Don) 14:51 Low call volume and the Mariners' hangover 15:52 Listener Kevin asks about dividends vs. selling stock 16:53 Reinvesting dividends vs. total-return withdrawals 18:17 Dividends reduce company growth potential 19:45 Why high-yield chasing kills diversification 20:07 Caller David, age 67, plans retirement & asks how to prep 21:55 Social Security timing advice—benefits rise monthly 22:50 David's details: city pension, deferred comp, house, no debt 24:07 Getting professional fiduciary advice before retiring 25:23 David's crypto confession and $3K Ripple gamble 27:27 Jail-bound investor asks where to park money 30:18 Don & Tom debate investing from behind bars (humor intact) 33:19 Columbus Day scheduling confusion & closing banter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Richard H. Thaler is the 2017 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics and the Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He is the New York Times bestselling co-author of Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness and the author of Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. His new book is The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now. My co-host for this conversation is Nick Kokonas. Nick is an entrepreneur, investor, and author best known as the co-founder of The Alinea Group (sold in 2024) and the reservation platform Tock, which is now owned by American Express.This episode is brought to you by:Seed's DS-01® Daily Synbiotic broad spectrum 24-strain probiotic + prebiotic: https://Seed.com/Tim (Use code 25TIM for 25% off your first month's supply)ExpressVPN high-speed, secure, and anonymous VPN service: https://www.expressvpn.com/tim (get 4 months free on their annual plans)AG1 all-in-one nutritional supplement: https://DrinkAG1.com/Tim (1-year supply of Vitamin D plus 5 free AG1 travel packs with your first subscription purchase.)*For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast.For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsorsSign up for Tim's email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday.For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.Discover Tim's books: tim.blog/books.Follow Tim:Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferrissYouTube: youtube.com/timferrissFacebook: facebook.com/timferriss LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferrissSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Today's guest is Eddy Elfenbein, one of the OG financial bloggers at Crossing Wall Street. Eddy also runs the CWS ETF, which is from his annual buy list of 25 stocks. In today's episode, Eddy shares his insights on investing, stock selection, and the challenges of managing an ETF. He discusses the origins of his buy list, his investment philosophy focused on high-quality stocks, and the importance of understanding market cycles. Eddie also provides advice for aspiring ETF managers and reflects on the unique stock picks that have defined his career. (0:00) Starts (3:22) Eddie's buy list concept and CWS ETF launch (9:55) Eddy's investment philosophy (19:36) Stock picking challenges and notable winners (22:45) Market misconceptions (28:38) Elfenbein's stock market theory (38:20) Eddy's most memorable investment (44:54) Market concerns and investment strategies ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Funds and serves as portfolio manager of the firm's deep value strategy. He's just released a book called Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking. In today's episode, Toby starts by discussing the current valuation landscape and the challenge for small cap investors. Then he explores the intersection of Warren Buffett's investment philosophy with Sun Tzu's teachings. He walks through notable investment case studies, including General Re, Burlington Northern and Japanese trading houses. The case studies all convey the significance of patience, strategic thinking, and the pursuit of asymmetric opportunities in investing, while also addressing the psychological aspects that influence investor behavior. (0:34) Introduction of Tobias Carlisle (1:32) Value investing in current market conditions (4:04) Market outlook and valuation differences across cap-sizes (10:03) Jay Powell's recent comments (13:57) Toby's new book (19:54) The Gen Re investment (26:33) Buffett's investment in Japan and Apple (32:57) Buffett's investment principles and managing FOMO (42:30) Comparing low volatility and high beta stocks ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Morgan Housel, the bestselling author of The Psychology of Money and Same As Ever. His books have sold over nine million copies. His new book releasing in October is The Art of Spending Money. Morgan is a partner at The Collaborative Fund and serves on the board of directors at Markel. In today's episode, Morgan discusses the complexities of wealth, spending, and happiness. He shares insights on the psychological implications of financial identity and the importance of independence and purpose in achieving true happiness. One theme throughout is that investing is more about human behavior than financial principles. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Introduction of guest Morgan Housel (2:01) Virality, luck and success (3:38) The psychological impact of wealth (7:15) The burden of material possessions and spending for happiness (11:17) Personal history's influence on spending and investment behavior (16:01) Cultural attitudes toward investing (22:07) The role of identity in financial behavior (27:45) Avoiding peer comparisons (37:30) Finding happiness and purpose after financial independence (50:13) Morgan's most memorable investment Sponsor: AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices