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Today's guest is Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management, author of A Wealth of Common Sense and host of the Animal Spirits podcast. In today's episode, Ben unpacks the counterintuitive math behind long term investing. He reveals that picking the wrong asset every year still makes money, that the average up year tops 20%, and that stocks grow less volatile than bonds the longer you hold. To close, Ben explains why patience has never been harder. (0:00) Starts (2:05) Ben Carlson on the secret to investing (5:00) The worst investor ever (15:20) Tax management as new alpha (17:12) Inflation's impact on asset classes (21:06) "Now do Japan" (33:02) Lessons from bear markets (41:54) Discretionary investing challenges (46:31) Poor performance of hyperactive traders ----- Sponsor: Ivy Invest - To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit ivyinvest.co/fund ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Insurance forms that make no sense. Subscriptions that can't be cancelled. A never-ending blizzard of automated notifications. In this update of a 2025 episode, Stephen Dubner discovers where all this sludge comes from — and how much it's costing us. SOURCES: Benjamin Handel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley. Neale Mahoney, professor of economics at Stanford University. Richard Thaler, professor of economics at The University of Chicago. RESOURCES: "Selling Subscriptions," by Liran Einav, Ben Klopack, and Neale Mahoney (Stanford University, 2023). "The ‘Enshittification' of TikTok," by Cory Doctorow (WIRED, 2023). "Dominated Options in Health Insurance Plans," by Chenyuan Liu and Justin Sydnor (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2022). Nudge: The Final Edition, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2021). "Frictions or Mental Gaps: What's Behind the Information We (Don't) Use and When Do We Care?" by Benjamin Handel and Joshua Schwartzstein (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018). "Adverse Selection and Switching Costs in Health Insurance Markets: When Nudging Hurts," by Benjamin Handel (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011). EXTRAS: "Sludge," series by Freakonomics Radio (2025). "People Aren't Dumb. The World Is Hard. (Update)" by Freakonomics Radio (2024). "All You Need is Nudge," by Freakonomics Radio (2021). "How to Fix the Hot Mess of U.S. Healthcare," by Freakonomics Radio (2021). "Should We Really Behave Like Economists Say We Do?" by Freakonomics Radio (2015). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
In today's episode, Meb celebrates the release of his new book, Investing in America, a coffee table history of the 250 year bull market. He explains the magic of compounding, why every decade feels like chaos, and the surprising fact that stocks become less volatile than bonds over long horizons. To close, Meb weighs today's valuations against the long view. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Bryan Taylor, founder and chief economist of Finaeon, which has the most comprehensive database of historical financial market data in the world. He's just published Five Financial Eras: How Financial Markets Transformed the World. In today's episode, Bryan explains his TWIG framework of trade, war, inflation, and government, and how their combination drives returns across centuries of market history. He challenges the belief in a fixed equity risk premium and revisits seven decades of negative real bond returns. To close, Bryan explains why the post-1981 playbook no longer applies. (0:00) Starts (1:25) Sponsor: Ivy Invest (2:37) Bryan Taylor explains the TWIG framework (10:20) There is no single equity risk premium (21:18) Government debt, market capitalization, and global market position (26:17) The impact of technology revolutions on markets (28:30) Historical changes in investment trends (38:22) Cultural shifts in investing (47:36) Evolution of stock market indices and future projects (52:03) Currency discussion ----- Sponsor: Ivy Invest - To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit ivyinvest.co/fund ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this special live episode of Facts vs Feelings from Carson's Second Quarter Summit in Chicago, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese sit down with Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Richard Thaler for a conversation that ranges from NFL draft strategy to retirement savings design to why markets keep producing events that are statistically supposed to be impossible.Thaler breaks down his "Loser's Curse" research on the NFL draft, explaining why top picks are systematically overvalued and why trading down is almost always the smarter move. Twenty years and a Nobel Prize later, teams have barely improved their ability to predict talent. The better-than-the-next-guy stat went from 52% to 53%.The conversation covers Bob Shiller's work on excess market volatility, what it actually means when 10-sigma events keep showing up every decade, and why the coming wave of major IPOs is forcing index providers into decisions that are anything but passive.On the behavioral side, Thaler walks through the three pillars that transformed 401k design: automatic enrollment, target date funds, and Save More Tomorrow and why the UK's approach to retirement mandates got the balance right. He also gets into mental accounting and why a $2 million gain in home equity has almost no impact on spending while a direct deposit hits a checking account and disappears immediately.Key Takeaways: NFL teams have had 20 years, full quant departments, and AI-powered scouting to improve on Richard Thaler's draft research. Their ability to rank players better than a coin flip moved from 52% to 53%. Tom Brady was picked 199.The first pick in the NFL draft is not worth six second-round picks. Trading down is the winning strategy, and trading a pick this year for a pick next year where the going rate is one round works out to roughly a 120% implied interest rate.When stocks get added to the S&P 500, the price pops. Andre Shleifer proved it in grad school with a paper called "Do Demand Curves Slope Down for Stocks?" The answer was yes, and it was controversial at the time. Now everyone knows it and the SpaceX IPO is about to test it at a scale the market has never seen.Buying an IPO on day one looks exciting and has historically cost investors around 30% in underperformance versus the market over the following three years, according to Jay Ritter's data.Making enrollment the default in 401k plans, rather than requiring employees to opt in, had a bigger impact on retirement savings rates than any amount of financial education. Which box comes pre-checked should be irrelevant. It isn't.A $2 million gain in home equity produces almost zero change in spending. The same money landing in a checking account gets spent. Mental accounting is not a quirk; it shapes how wealth actually moves through the economy, and you can't model the wealth effect without accounting for where the money sits.Jump to:0:00 - Live From Chicago Kickoff0:35 - Sponsor Message From Pimco1:13 - Welcoming Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler2:31 - The NFL Draft Loser's Curse9:03 - Can You Fire Your Team10:31 - Why Markets Swing Too Much18:35 - IPOs Index Rules And Demand Shocks24:24 - Live T-Shirt Toss Intermission25:47 - Nudges That Fix Retirement Saving34:33 - Education Versus Mandates In Policy38:45 - Fees Transparency And Trust41:09 - Mental Accounting And The Wealth Effect45:13 - Final Thanks And Sign-Off45:42 - Important DisclosuresConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Today's guest is Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, which he's been publishing since 1983. He's a financial historian and one of the most well-respected Observers on Wall Street. In today's episode, Jim Grant explains why AI may be one of the greatest bubbles of all time, alongside the railroads and the dot-com era. He reframes deflation as progress, questions how murky the $2 trillion private credit market is, and explains why the Fed can't aggressively fight inflation. To close, Jim makes his case for gold and revisits 1984, which he calls the clearest example of how strange markets can be. (0:00) Starts (0:39) Jim Grant on AI mania (12:23) The economic implications of inflation & deflation (19:56) Interest rates and private credit concerns (27:13) The Fed's inflation target (41:10) How to fix the Federal Reserve (45:09) The history and role of gold in portfolios (54:34) Jim's most memorable investment (57:28) Historical periods to study ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
JOIN HAMPTON:These episodes often come directly out of conversations happening inside Hampton, a private community for founders and CEOs with $3M+ in revenue or $10M+ exits. Members range from $5M net worth to billions. They wrestle with these same questions off the record. Apply at http://joinhampton.com/mw.HOW FOUNDERS ARE BUILDING WEALTH:How much do founders actually make, spend, invest, work, and keep in net worth? Hampton surveyed founders directly and put the answers into one report. Download it for free here: https://joinhampton.com/mw-wrEPISODE DETAILS:Most founders spend years learning how to make money. Almost none of them prepare for what their brain does once they have it.Henrik Cronqvist is a behavioral finance professor who trained under Nobel laureate Richard Thaler and has spent 25 years studying exactly that. His research has been cited over 7,000 times. He has studied 38,000 people to answer one uncomfortable question: how much of the way you save, spend, and invest is actually hardwired into your DNA?The answer will change how you think about every financial decision you make after an exit.This episode covers the science behind why the traits that made you a great founder may work against you as an investor, what actually happens in your brain the day the wire hits, and the one thing Henrik says every founder should do before making a single investment.TIMESTAMPS:00:00 — The traits that made you a great founder will make you a bad investor 01:45 — What is behavioral finance and why should founders care 04:35 — How Henrik got into this research (the Stockholm subway story) 06:39 — The 38,000 twin study: how much of your money behavior is genetic 10:56 — The first thing to do when the wire hits your account 12:49 — Loss aversion, performance chasing, and home bias explained 20:35 — Your personal mortgage predicts how you'll run your company's finances 30:08 — Why your brokerage app is designed to work against you 37:07 — Why founders feel depressed after selling (the science behind post-exit emotions) 47:14 — "I think I'm the exception" — and what the data actually says about that
My guest today is Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates, longtime member of Yale's investment committee, and author of more than 20 books, including the classic Winning the Loser's Game. In today's episode, Charley reflects on writing the first major book on share repurchases 50 years ago, when the idea was so foreign that Goldman mailed it to 1,000 corporations as a “legitimizer.” Charley also walks us through his new book, Great American Investments: A History of the Bold Initiatives that Shaped a Nation, covering 14 audacious public investments from the Louisiana Purchase to the Marshall Plan. He explains how each came down to one or two obsessed individuals, why Alaska turned out to be the bargain of the century, and how Frances Perkins muscled Social Security into law. As the episode winds down, he shares the lunch with Sandy Gottesman in the early 1970s that led him to buy Berkshire Hathaway at $700 a share — and hold it ever since. (0:00) Starts (1:54) Charley on stock buybacks (8:06) Current state of investing and behavioral economics (11:37) Advice for young investors and long-term strategies (16:41) Charley's new book: Great American Investments: A History of the Bold Initiatives that Shaped a Nation (25:42) The origins of social Security (32:46) American entrepreneurship (36:43) Will AI be the next great American investment? (42:34) Most memorable investment ----- Sponsor: Ivy Invest - To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit ivyinvest.co/fund ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Will Goetzmann, Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management. He is an expert on financial markets and securities, investment strategies, investor behavior and financial history. In today's episode, Professor Goetzmann walks through 5,000 years of financial history, showing how finance shaped trade, cities, corporations, and investing. He covers the first compound interest calculation, the world's oldest corporations and bonds, and historic bubbles from tulips to NFTs. To close, he explains why markets have repeatedly adapted through war, crisis, and uncertainty. (0:00) Starts (1:50) William Goetzmann on origins of money (7:06) The history of corporations (14:43) Yale's historical bond and early financial innovation (17:33) Parallels between historical and modern financial bubbles (25:52) SpaceX IPO and market valuations (27:26) Herd mentality and bubbles (32:47) Global investing, inflation, and currencies (41:13) Finance-related art (46:31) Most memorable investment ----- Sponsor: Ivy Invest - To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit ivyinvest.co/fund ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
While in Omaha for Berkshire week, Meb hopped on another podcast as a guest. It was a fun one, so we're releasing it here as well. In today's episode, Meb Faber makes the case against home country bias, pointing to Korea's near-triple and Japan's decades-long round trip as reminders that cycles always turn. He explains why shareholder yield tells a truer story than dividends, why there are now more ETFs than stocks, and why tax alpha matters more than chasing returns. To close, Meb reflects on multi-decade compounding — and the mistakes that quietly take investors out of the game. (0:00) Starts (2:06) Meb's thoughts on Warren Buffett (5:11) Global diversification and home country bias (14:29) Shareholder yield (27:45) Positive investment behaviors (30:19) The ETF industry and the current investment landscape (35:18) Rapid fire questions ----- Sponsor: Want to learn more about 351 Exchanges? Visit the Alpha Architect 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Investments in securities entail risks, including possible loss of principal and are not suitable for all investors. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Send us a note about this episode. We'll reply and thank you on a future episodeThis episode was first published in May 2021.Nudge Theory burst onto the scene in 2008 when Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler published their book “Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness.” The simplest models of economics take preferences as given, but nudge ideas suggest we can be moved, steered, and in some cases manipulated. Nudge has influenced politicians around the World. There are “Nudge Units” in government in the UK, US, Germany, Japan, and even Canada. The World Bank, United Nations, and European Commission have “Nudge” teams.Guest Rory Sutherland, Vice chairman Ogilvy UKWebsite To book Rory for your event emailCanadian Nudge Team = BeSci Team UK Nudge Team = Behavioural Insights Team Australian Nudge Team = Behavioural Economics Team of Australia American Nudge Team = Social and Behavioural Sciences Team Stories and Strategies is the Official Podcast Sponsor of IABC World Conference in Toronto June 14-16, 2026Click here to check it out https://wc.iabc.com Support the showStories and Strategies is the Official Podcast Sponsor of IABC World Conference in Toronto June 14-16, 2026Click here to check it out https://wc.iabc.com Support the show
Today's guest is Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital, PM for the Granny Shots U.S. Large Cap ETF, and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan's Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014. In today's episode, Tom explains why stocks have remained resilient despite war, higher oil prices, and widespread investor skepticism. He shares his outlook for the S&P 500 and discusses the coming wave of mega-IPOs. Finally, Tom covers his successful entrance into the ETF space with the Fundstrat Granny Shots ETFs. (0:00) Starts (1:35) Tom Lee on markets since the Iran war (10:02) Issues with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (20:50) AI & upcoming IPOs (24:34) Granny Shots ETF (31:25) Tom on crypto (36:52) Tom's most memorable investment Visit www.fundstrat.com/tom for complimentary access to Tom's daily insights, market alerts, live webinars, and stock lists. ----- Sponsor: Want to learn more about 351 Exchanges? Visit the Alpha Architect 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Investments in securities entail risks, including possible loss of principal and are not suitable for all investors. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Marc Seidner, PIMCO's CIO of Non-traditional Strategies. He is also a generalist portfolio manager and a member of the Investment Committee. In today's episode, Marc explores why the investing landscape has changed from one led by economics to one increasingly shaped by politics and geopolitics. He explains why bonds may offer one of the most compelling opportunities in years, while private credit continues to show stress. He also touches on the K-shape economy and why real assets may help portfolios withstand a more uncertain world. (0:00) Starts (1:50) Global economic landscape (4:47) Golden age of fixed income (7:32) Equity vs. fixed income ownership (10:13) K-shaped recovery (15:06) Private credit concerns (17:49) Value over growth, global diversification, and real assets (24:50) International diversification & emerging market bonds (33:05) IPO landscape ----- Sponsor: To learn more about CAOS, read the Fund's prospectus and important information, visit: funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Richard Thaler, Nobel Laureate and Professor at the University of Chicago, and Benjamin Robinson, Founder and CEO of Grinding the Mocks, join the Wharton Moneyball team to analyze how cognitive biases, flawed valuation frameworks, and emerging data models shape NFL draft strategies and impact team decision-making. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Today's guest is Samuel Hartzmark, a finance professor at Boston College. In today's episode, Sam explores why dividends are so often misunderstood by investors. He explains the “free dividends fallacy” and how it can lead to inflated valuations and price dislocations. He also examines the tradeoffs between dividends and buybacks and how payout policies influence investor behavior. To close, Sam briefly touches on his research on prediction markets and ESG. (0:00) Starts (1:59) Sam Hartzmark on dividend misconceptions (15:24) Mutual funds juicing dividend yields (27:26) Buybacks, shareholder yield, and reinvesting dividends (39:57) Tax optimization (43:40) Importance of total return (52:26) Divestment, prediction markets, and memorable investments ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the last episode, we broke down the behaviors that quietly destroy wealth—emotional decisions, lifestyle creep, and overconfidence. But avoiding mistakes is only half the equation. In this episode, Erik Garcia, CFP®, and Xavier Angel, CFP®, flip the conversation and focus on what actually protects wealth once you start building it. Because wealth isn't just created—it has to be preserved with intention. We walk through three foundational disciplines: living below your means to create margin, reinvesting instead of extracting to keep your money working, and avoiding catastrophic mistakes that can undo years of progress. Grounded in behavioral finance and real-world experience, this episode shows why wealth is often less about big wins—and more about consistently doing the right things over time. Episode Highlights: Erik explains the behavioral economics foundation of today's episode, referencing Richard Thaler's book "Misbehaving" to highlight how humans often act irrationally in financial decision-making. (04:14) Xavier explains how building financial margin is what creates the space to save, invest, and pursue what matters most. (07:14) Erik shares the single most consistent pattern across people who successfully build wealth: they spend less than they earn and make building margin their priority. (10:10) Xavier discusses the second behavior, reinvesting instead of extracting, explaining that wealth grows when money is kept in the system and put back to work rather than pulled out early. (13:44) Erik explains the third behavior, avoiding catastrophic mistakes, using a golf analogy to share why minimizing financial damage matters more than chasing perfect results. (19:08) Erik discusses specific strategies for avoiding catastrophic financial mistakes: managing risk at the right level, maintaining sufficient liquidity, and diversifying rather than concentrating in speculative assets. (22:04) Xavier shares a sharp contrast between wealth lost and wealth built, explaining that losses often trace back to one risky decision while lasting wealth comes from thousands of small, consistent good ones. (25:25) Key Quotes: “When building wealth, the goal isn't to look wealthy, right? The goal is to be wealthy. I can be wealthy and not own the most expensive clothes or the biggest house or the most expensive car.” - Xavier Angel, CFP® “This is the common thread in financially successful people. It's what allows everything else to work. Without financial margin, there's nothing to invest. Nothing to save, no money to compound.” - Erik Garcia, CFP® “Reinvesting, not spending your investments involves an intentional, purposeful, conscious decision to choose the future over today. I'm saying no to myself today because I'm saying yes to something tomorrow” - Erik Garcia, CFP® Resources Mentioned: Erik Garcia, CFP®, BFA Xavier Angel, CFP®, ChFC, CLTC Plan Wisely Wealth Advisors
In the last episode, we broke down the behaviors that quietly destroy wealth—emotional decisions, lifestyle creep, and overconfidence. But avoiding mistakes is only half the equation. In this episode, Erik Garcia, CFP®, and Xavier Angel, CFP®, flip the conversation and focus on what actually protects wealth once you start building it. Because wealth isn't just created—it has to be preserved with intention. We walk through three foundational disciplines: living below your means to create margin, reinvesting instead of extracting to keep your money working, and avoiding catastrophic mistakes that can undo years of progress. Grounded in behavioral finance and real-world experience, this episode shows why wealth is often less about big wins—and more about consistently doing the right things over time. Episode Highlights: Erik explains the behavioral economics foundation of today's episode, referencing Richard Thaler's book "Misbehaving" to highlight how humans often act irrationally in financial decision-making. (04:14) Xavier explains how building financial margin is what creates the space to save, invest, and pursue what matters most. (07:14) Erik shares the single most consistent pattern across people who successfully build wealth: they spend less than they earn and make building margin their priority. (10:10) Xavier discusses the second behavior, reinvesting instead of extracting, explaining that wealth grows when money is kept in the system and put back to work rather than pulled out early. (13:44) Erik explains the third behavior, avoiding catastrophic mistakes, using a golf analogy to share why minimizing financial damage matters more than chasing perfect results. (19:08) Erik discusses specific strategies for avoiding catastrophic financial mistakes: managing risk at the right level, maintaining sufficient liquidity, and diversifying rather than concentrating in speculative assets. (22:04) Xavier shares a sharp contrast between wealth lost and wealth built, explaining that losses often trace back to one risky decision while lasting wealth comes from thousands of small, consistent good ones. (25:25) Key Quotes: “When building wealth, the goal isn't to look wealthy, right? The goal is to be wealthy. I can be wealthy and not own the most expensive clothes or the biggest house or the most expensive car.” - Xavier Angel, CFP® “This is the common thread in financially successful people. It's what allows everything else to work. Without financial margin, there's nothing to invest. Nothing to save, no money to compound.” - Erik Garcia, CFP® “Reinvesting, not spending your investments involves an intentional, purposeful, conscious decision to choose the future over today. I'm saying no to myself today because I'm saying yes to something tomorrow” - Erik Garcia, CFP® Resources Mentioned: Erik Garcia, CFP®, BFA Xavier Angel, CFP®, ChFC, CLTC Plan Wisely Wealth Advisors
Today's guest is Will Guidara, author of the New York Times Bestseller Unreasonable Hospitality and former co-owner of Eleven Madison Park, which was named the Best Restaurant in the World. He is a Co-Producer on the Emmy Award-winning series The Bear. His new book, Unreasonable Hospitality: The Field Guide comes out this month. In today's episode, Will discusses how unreasonable hospitality can turn routine service into memorable human connection. He explains why unreasonable hospitality is less about grand gestures and more about intentionality, creativity, and empowering teams to take ownership of memorable customer experiences. To close, Will shares how small acts of care can transform relationships, culture, and loyalty across financial services. (0:00) Starts (2:28) Will Guidara on Unreasonable Hospitality (8:18) Implementing this philosophy in your organization (17:11) The importance of admitting mistakes (26:15) Examples of unreasonable hospitality (37:37) Will's conferences ----- Sponsor: To learn more about CAOS, read the Fund's prospectus and important information, visit: funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guests are Alex Rubalcava and Paul Bricault of Amplify.LA, a pre-seed venture capital firm. In today's episode, Alex and Paul break down the opportunities and challenges AI is creating for both startups and investors. They discuss the changing economics of software, what makes an AI company defensible, where investors are finding opportunity in frontier sectors, and why speed matters more than ever in early-stage investing. To close, they explore startup pivots and the tax advantages of QSBS. (0:00) Starts (1:27) Introducing Alex and Paul (2:02) Public software companies & AI (5:13) Amplify LA background and partnership formation (7:34) AI use cases in portfolio companies (15:08) AI's impact on the job market (30:31) AI's impact on investment opportunities at the pre-seed stage (41:02) Aerospace sector opportunities (44:32) Successful startup pivots (50:18) Liquidity in VC (55:28) QSBS impact ----- Sponsor: Alpha Architect - To learn more about CAOS, read the Fund's prospectus and important information, visit funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Welcome Pivoter! Before we dive in, April has an exciting update to share. Big things are brewing behind the scenes — the kind that require focus, intention, and doing it right, not just doing it fast. PivotMe is shifting from a weekly podcast to twice a month. Not less value — better value. More depth, more intention, and more of what actually helps you win in business, in life, and in the moments that matter. Something bigger is being built. Buckle up. Now — let's get into it. If a habit requires motivation, it's going to fail. If it's supported by friction — or the removal of it — it has a fighting chance. In this episode, April Garcia dismantles one of the most damaging lies high achievers tell themselves: that if they just had more willpower, more grit, more discipline, they'd finally make their good habits stick. The truth? Your problem isn't discipline. It's design. This episode hands you a practical, science-backed framework for making your best habits effortless and your worst ones annoying — and it works even on your worst days. Key Takeaways: The Real Problem Is Design, Not Discipline: Motivation is unreliable. Environment is not. April reframes the habit conversation entirely — you haven't been failing your habits, your systems have been failing you. What Friction Actually Means: Friction is anything that makes a behavior easier, harder, faster, slower, automatic, or annoying. Your brain follows the path of least resistance every single time — so the winner is always whichever habit your environment makes easiest. The Science Behind It: Long before Atomic Habits made friction a household word, Kurt Lewin was studying how environment shapes behavior, B.J. Fogg was mapping the convergence of motivation, ability, and prompts, and Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein were proving that tiny environmental nudges outperform rules and lectures every time. Different fields, same conclusion: people don't fail habits — systems fail people. 3 Habits to Increase (Remove the Friction): Deep Work: Block focus time, close email and Slack by default, and start each session with your task already open. Every decision you eliminate preserves cognitive energy. Morning Movement: Lay out your workout clothes the night before. Sleep in your gym gear. Pre-fill your water bottle. You don't skip workouts — you skip transitions. Presence and Connection: Charge your phone outside the bedroom. Create phone-free dinner anchors. Keep a short list of conversation starters ready. Presence doesn't happen accidentally. 3 Habits to Decrease (Add the Friction): Phone Scrolling: Delete one social app. Add a 10-second delay. Move your phone to another room during focused work. Even minor friction changes behavior. Impulse Spending: Remove saved credit cards. Add a 48-hour rule before checkout. Unsubscribe from promotional emails. Friction creates pause — and pause creates choice. Late-Night Work: Set an auto-shutdown time for your laptop. Charge it in another room. Block "OFF" time on your calendar. Burnout isn't ambition — it's poor system design. The PivotMe Reframe: Good habits should feel like the default. Bad habits should feel annoying. If your system relies on willpower, it's broken. If it relies on friction, it works — even on your hardest days. Notable Quotes: "If a habit requires motivation, it's going to fail. If it's supported by friction — or the removal of it — it has a fighting chance." — April Garcia "You don't skip workouts — you skip transitions." — April Garcia "People don't fail habits. Systems fail people." — April Garcia "Burnout isn't ambition — it's poor system design." — April Garcia Resource Mentioned:
Running a global marketing function from APAC sounds like a logistical headache. For Jon Stona, VP of Global Marketing at Airwallex, it's a deliberate competitive advantage. In this episode, Jon unpacks how one of the world's fastest-growing fintechs has architected a marketing org that's globally consistent yet locally authentic - spanning Singapore, San Francisco, London, and regional hubs across Asia, Europe, and Australia. From making the case for product marketing before performance spend, to using an F1 sponsorship to systematically close a trust gap against legacy financial institutions, Jon brings rare clarity to the strategic decisions that most B2B marketing leaders only talk about in theory. If you want to think bigger about brand, team design, and what marketing can actually own in a scaling business, this episode is worth your time. Guest Introduction Jon Stona is VP of Global Marketing at Airwallex, the Australian-founded global payments and financial platform supporting over 150,000 businesses worldwide. Before joining Airwallex, Jon held senior marketing roles at Stripe, Google, and Nike - giving him deep experience scaling marketing across global technology platforms and challenger brands at every stage of growth. Key Topics Why Airwallex built its global marketing org out of APAC, and why the APAC talent pool - wired for fragmentation and global trade from day one - is a genuine strategic assetHow the team is structured across Singapore, San Francisco, London, and regional markets, and why a flat, matrix model is essential when you're this geographically dispersedThe case for investing in product marketing before growth marketing - and why getting your positioning, segmentation, and value prop right is the "root" everything else depends onThe four truths Jon applies to any market expansion: brand truth, product truth, market truth, and user truth - and how product marketing is the function that calibrates where the variation sitsHow Airwallex uses its McLaren F1 partnership to build trust at scale, structured around the reliability-credibility-intimacy-low self-orientation framework - and how they actually measure the pipeline and employee sentiment impactWhere AI is genuinely delivering efficiency gains in marketing (Writer, Jasper, Profound) and the paradox this creates: as AI levels the playing field on distribution, the non-technical facets of marketing - storytelling, positioning, insight - matter more than everJon's advice for B2B marketers who want to take bolder moves: return to first principles, and remember you're marketing to humans who happen to make business decisions Resources & Links Books Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass SunsteinPredictably Irrational by Dan Ariely AI Tools Writer - AI content platform for brand voice consistency and marketing workflow efficiencyJasper - AI platform for end-to-end marketing content creationProfound - Tool for tracking how your brand appears across LLM platforms Blogs & Publications HubSpot Blog People Mentioned Reko Rennie - Internationally acclaimed Kamilaroi artist who collaborated with Airwallex and McLaren on the 'Shifted Perspectives' campaign at the 2025 Australian Grand PrixDan Ariely - Behavioural economist and author Companies & Platforms AirwallexMcLaren Racing Contact & Credits Host: Shahin Hoda Guest: Jon Stona Produced by: Shahin Hoda and Alexander Hipwell Edited by: Alexander Hipwell Music by: Breakmaster Cylinder APAC's B2B Growth Podcast is Presented by xGrowth
Before you can build wealth, you have to stop destroying it. Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler said it best: “People don't act rationally.” And when it comes to money, that shows up in ways that quietly cost us more than we realize. In this episode, Erik Garcia, CFP®, and Xavier Angel, CFP®, break down three wealth-destroying behaviors—emotional decisions, lifestyle creep, and overconfidence. These aren't knowledge problems—they're behavior problems. And over time, they compound in the wrong direction. This is Part 1 of a 4-part series to help you stop losing… and start building. Episode Highlights: Erik discusses that behavior, not market drops, is the biggest obstacle to building wealth, grounding the discussion in Richard Thaler's Nobel Prize-winning behavioral finance research. (02:56) Erik shares about a client who moved to cash during market volatility and ended up as the only negative portfolio that year, using it to show how emotional reactions impact returns. (06:39) Xavier explains lifestyle creep and how spending that rises faster than income eliminates the margin needed to build wealth. (10:51) Xavier mentions that inflation, not lifestyle choices, is forcing some listeners into tighter margins and asks what to do when spending rises without any upgrade in lifestyle. (15:17) Erik introduces overconfidence as the third wealth-killing behavior, noting people consistently overestimate their ability to time markets and spot opportunities. (18:21) Xavier connects bad financial behaviors to generational patterns, pointing out that children observe and absorb those habits into their own lives. (24:03) Erik closes with the heart of their practice philosophy: understanding how people think about money is just as important as knowing how to grow it. (26:26) Key Quotes: “You don't need to save as much today as you were yesterday because you can always come back and reevaluate it at a different time when the season is over and begin increasing those savings at a later date.” - Xavier Angel, CFP®, “The best way for us to help you be successful is to understand how you think about money.” - Erik Garcia, CFP® Resources Mentioned: Erik Garcia, CFP®, BFA Xavier Angel, CFP®, ChFC, CLTC Plan Wisely Wealth Advisors
Today's guests are Owen Lamont, a Portfolio Manager at Acadian Asset Management, and Randy Cohen, a finance and entrepreneurship professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PEO Partners, which is a leader in the emerging liquid Private Equity alternatives space. In today's episode, Owen Lamont and Randy Cohen begin with a deep dive into private equity, how to model it in public markets, and why investors are searching for liquid ways to access private-market-like returns. They challenge common views on concentration, market valuations, and explain how investors should think about bubbles and technological change. They also discuss whether the US stock market is Koreafying and the long-term forces that could shape the investing landscape. (0:00) Starts (0:34) Welcome Owen and Randy (5:14) Private equity overview (9:20) Liquid private equity (20:05) The US stock market is Koreafying (24:29) The IPO landscape (36:03) CAPE Ratio and AI (44:45) Best ideas investing (58:44) Deglobalization increases the benefits of diversification (1:00:36) Randy's five future fears (1:11:09) Book recommendations ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Before you can build wealth, you have to stop destroying it. Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler said it best: “People don't act rationally.” And when it comes to money, that shows up in ways that quietly cost us more than we realize. In this episode, Erik Garcia, CFP®, and Xavier Angel, CFP®, break down three wealth-destroying behaviors—emotional decisions, lifestyle creep, and overconfidence. These aren't knowledge problems—they're behavior problems. And over time, they compound in the wrong direction. This is Part 1 of a 4-part series to help you stop losing… and start building. Episode Highlights: Erik discusses that behavior, not market drops, is the biggest obstacle to building wealth, grounding the discussion in Richard Thaler's Nobel Prize-winning behavioral finance research. (02:56) Erik shares about a client who moved to cash during market volatility and ended up as the only negative portfolio that year, using it to show how emotional reactions impact returns. (06:39) Xavier explains lifestyle creep and how spending that rises faster than income eliminates the margin needed to build wealth. (10:51) Xavier mentions that inflation, not lifestyle choices, is forcing some listeners into tighter margins and asks what to do when spending rises without any upgrade in lifestyle. (15:17) Erik introduces overconfidence as the third wealth-killing behavior, noting people consistently overestimate their ability to time markets and spot opportunities. (18:21) Xavier connects bad financial behaviors to generational patterns, pointing out that children observe and absorb those habits into their own lives. (24:03) Erik closes with the heart of their practice philosophy: understanding how people think about money is just as important as knowing how to grow it. (26:26) Key Quotes: “You don't need to save as much today as you were yesterday because you can always come back and reevaluate it at a different time when the season is over and begin increasing those savings at a later date.” - Xavier Angel, CFP®, “The best way for us to help you be successful is to understand how you think about money.” - Erik Garcia, CFP® Resources Mentioned: Erik Garcia, CFP®, BFA Xavier Angel, CFP®, ChFC, CLTC Plan Wisely Wealth Advisors
In today's episode, Van explores the evolution of the rare coin and collectables market, how grading transformed collectibles into an institutional-quality asset class, and why high-grade coins may be undervalued today. He discusses supply dynamics, the historical link between currency, gold, and collectibles, and how technology and AI are reshaping authentication and valuation. To close, Van explains why rare coins remain a compelling way to preserve wealth and build a lasting legacy. (0:00) Starts (2:25) Overview of current coin market and recent gold discoveries (16:43) Historical significance of coins and storing advice (25:34) COVID's impact on watches and sports memorabilia (31:41) Grading with AI (35:42) Identifying undervalued collectibles and selling lessons (45:15) Securitizing collectibles (49:52) Modern companies influencing the collectibles market (1:01:42) Highlights from coin shows and record-breaking sales ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
My guest today is Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer. In today's episode, Mike Wilson explains how a rolling recession has given way to a staggered recovery, and why he expects leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap stocks into small caps, cyclicals, and international markets. He highlights growing risks from AI disruption, private credit weakness, and the Iran conflict. To close, Mike discusses a shift beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio toward a more flexible 60/20/20 approach that includes assets like gold. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Mike Wilson on rolling recessions and rolling recoveries (5:28) Market implications of Iran conflict (9:52) Market cap weight vs. equal weight indices (15:41) Is 60/20/20 the new 60/40? (23:23) Geopolitical shocks (35:48) AI's impact and bullish on healthcare (42:03) Outlook for global economic recovery ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect's LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th here. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit www.funds.alphaarchitect.com Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
You make hundreds of decisions a day. Most of them invisibly. A few of them under real pressure, with incomplete information and no clear right answer. So how do the people who do this for a living like firefighters, surgeons, military commanders, and get it right when the stakes are highest? That's the question Dr. Gary Klein has spent his entire career answering. Not in a lab. In the field. With people whose next call might be life or death. Gary is a cognitive psychologist, a Senior Scientist at MacroCognition LLC, and the Chief Scientist at ShadowBox LLC. He's one of the founding figures of naturalistic decision making, the study of how people actually decide in the real world, under time pressure and uncertainty. He built the Recognition-Primed Decision model, which has been incorporated into Army and Marine Corps doctrine. He created the PreMortem method of risk assessment, endorsed by Nobel Prize winners Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler. He's the author of several influential books, including Sources of Power, The Power of Intuition, Streetlights and Shadows, Snapshots of the Mind, and Seeing What Others Don't, a fascinating deep dive into how insight actually works. Malcolm Gladwell put it simply: "No one has taught me more about the complexities and mysteries of human decision-making than Gary Klein." In this conversation, we get into everything from how Gary personally works through a tough decision to when you should, and shouldn't, trust your gut. We cover the value of first-person expertise, the difference between knowledge and knowing, how to use a pre-mortem, and why more information doesn't necessarily mean better decisions. Then we spend time on AI: what happens when people start outsourcing their thinking, and what might get lost in the shuffle. I also ask him to audit my use of his framework for managing uncertainty because there's a lot of that going around right now. Some highlights from the episode: 02:35 The White House Situation Room (and why he can't talk about it) 05:17 Writer's block, pen and paper, and how Gary structures his thinking 07:37 Walking through a real decision: the medical scenario 10:53 Intuition: when to trust it, when to question it 13:00 Pattern matching, mental simulation, and the Recognition-Primed Decision model 18:00 The AI concern: outsourcing decisions and eroding expertise 18:42 The pre-mortem: how it works and why Nobel Prize winners endorsed it 22:35 The 80/20 of decision making: build experience and frame the problem 27:12 AI and the younger generation: old fogey worry or real risk? 31:49 Why curiosity about failure is the thing AI can't replicate 33:06 Tacit knowledge: the invisible layer AI can't scrape 39:07 Five sources of uncertainty — and tools for managing them 42:36 Wrapping up: the cognitive dimension and what makes humans indispensable We go from the mechanics of expert decision making to a surprisingly urgent question: in an age of AI, what happens to the skills you never knew you were building? Enjoy!
Today's guests are Wes Gray, Co-CIO of Alpha Architect, and Brent Sullivan, Editor of Tax Alpha Insider, which is the only publication focused on taxable portfolio strategy. In today's episode, Brent Sullivan and Wes Gray discuss how to handle concentrated stock positions. They explore the complexities around 351 ETF exchanges, what investors need to know when participating to adhere to tax laws. To close, they examine the rise of tax-managed long-short strategies and how AI may transform tax planning and portfolio management. (0:00) Starts (1:18) Brent Sullivan's background (3:36) Handling concentrated stock positions (7:32) 351 to ETF conversions (14:49) Regulatory scrutiny & IRS enforcement (27:39) Rebalancing, tax implications and practical advisor advice (34:09) Future ETF seeding predictions (39:01) Comparing ETF seeding and portfolio consolidation strategies (45:48) Long short strategies (52:23) Brent Sullivan's book and conference ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The best decision-makers aren't better at deciding. They're better at controlling when, where, and how they decide. It took me twenty years to figure that out. Most people spend that time trying harder: more discipline, more willpower, more resolve to think clearly under pressure. It doesn't work. That's when mindjacking wins. Not through force. Through the door you left unguarded. The answer isn't trying harder. It's building systems that protect your thinking before the pressure hits. By the end of this episode, you'll have four concrete strategies for doing exactly that, and a one-page system you'll build before we're done. And I have something else to share at the end. Something I've been working toward for twenty years. Let's get into it. Why Willpower Fails and Design Works Ulysses knew his ship would pass the island of the Sirens. He also knew the song was irresistible. Sailors who heard it became incapacitated and drove straight into the rocks. He didn't try to be stronger than it. He had his crew fill their ears with wax and tie him to the mast, with strict orders not to release him, no matter what he said when the music reached him. His calm self setting rules for his compromised self. That's the core of everything in this episode. These are called commitment devices. The decision gets made early, when your thinking is clear, before you're tempted to take the wrong path. Studies tracking self-imposed contracts found that when people added meaningful stakes to their commitments, their follow-through nearly doubled. Not because they became more virtuous, but because they'd taken the choice off the table at the moment they were most likely to get it wrong. Stop asking "How do I resist?" Start asking, "What can I decide now, so I don't have to decide under pressure?" Before you can build the right commitments, you need to know exactly where your thinking breaks down. Not decision-making in general. Yours. Finding Your Personal Vulnerability Think back across the last few months. Where did your thinking most clearly cost you? Some people stall. They keep researching past the point of useful information, using "I need more data" as cover for avoiding a commitment they know they need to make. Others make their worst calls at the end of long days. Saying yes when they mean no, because no requires energy they've already spent. Some get caught by urgency. A deadline appears, the pressure closes off their thinking, and they move fast. Only later do they discover the deadline was manufactured to do exactly that. Others walk into a room with a clear position and walk out agreeing with the loudest voice, unable to explain exactly when they shifted. And some defend decisions past the point where the evidence says stop, because stopping would mean admitting something about themselves they're not ready to face. Identify yours. Write it down before we go further. Your primary vulnerability is a design target, not a character flaw. You can't build around something you haven't named. Four Strategies for Protecting Your Judgment Strategy 1: Control When You Decide Every morning I put on the same thing: a black golf shirt, blue jeans, and cowboy boots. Same brands, same routine, no decisions. My wife tolerates it. I've stopped apologizing for it. It's not a fashion choice. It's a cognitive load choice. Your brain has a finite amount of decision-making capacity each day. Every trivial choice draws from the same reserve you need for the decisions that actually matter. What to wear, what to eat, which route to take. Eliminating those choices doesn't just save time. It protects the mental fuel you'll need later. Decision-making capacity isn't flat across the day. It peaks early, when you're rested and fresh. It degrades, measurably, as conditions erode. The same call made at 8 a.m. and at the end of your seventh consecutive meeting aren't equivalent. Same person, different machine. Pull up your calendar from the last two weeks. Look at when your biggest decisions actually happened. For most people, it's not in a calm moment with a clear head. It's in the hallway, on a rushed call, in the last fifteen minutes of a meeting that ran over. That's not bad luck. That's the default you haven't changed yet. Write a standing rule: no significant, hard-to-reverse commitments after a certain hour or after a certain number of back-to-back meetings without a mandatory pause. Hold it like a policy, not a preference. Because preferences are exactly what disappear under the conditions where you need them most. Strategy 2: Build Your Kitchen Cabinet One of the things I credit most for whatever success I've had in my career isn't a framework or a methodology. It's four people. I call them my kitchen cabinet. They've seen my best decisions and my worst ones. They know when I'm rationalizing. They know when I'm avoiding. And they are not afraid to call me out when I'm off the tracks. Here's what surprises people when I describe them. They're not senior executives. They're not peers from inside my industry. They don't work in any organization I've ever worked for. They're a deliberate mix: different backgrounds, different areas of expertise, different ways of seeing the world. One of them has been in my cabinet for nearly thirty years. I trust them completely, and everything we discuss stays between us. That independence is the whole point. The people inside your organization have something at stake in your decisions. Your peers have their own agendas, even when they don't mean to. Your boss has a preferred outcome. None of that makes them bad advisors. It just means they can't give you the one thing you need most when a decision gets hard: a perspective with no skin in the game. Your kitchen cabinet can. Because they have nothing to gain or lose from what you decide, they can ask the question everyone else in the room is avoiding. They can tell you what you don't want to hear. And they'll do it before you've committed, when it still matters, not after the fact, when all they can do is watch. Build yours deliberately. Four to six people is enough. Prioritize independence over seniority. Look for people who will push back, not people who will reassure. And make the relationship reciprocal. You show up for their decisions too. The cabinet only works if the trust runs both ways and the conversations stay private. You don't need them for every decision. You need them for the ones where you're most at risk of fooling yourself. Strategy 3: Write Your Position Before the Room Fills Up I've sat in enough rooms where I walked in with a clear position and walked out having said almost none of it. Not because I was wrong. Because by the time the senior voice spoke and the heads started nodding, my own analysis felt less certain than it did twenty minutes earlier. The brain doesn't just nudge your answer when social pressure arrives. It rewrites your perception. What you saw before entering the room changes to match what the room already believes, before you've consciously registered the pressure. Before any consequential group decision, write down where you stand. Three sentences. What you believe. What evidence supports it. What would genuinely change your mind. A note on your phone is enough. It doesn't need to be formal. It needs to be external, because your memory will quietly revise itself once the social pressure arrives. Those three sentences are a record of what you actually concluded before the room had a chance to work on you. When the discussion moves toward a position, you can then distinguish between "I'm updating because I heard something new" and "I'm caving because the silence is uncomfortable." Without that record, those two experiences feel identical in the moment, and one of them will reliably win. Strategy 4: Assume the Failure Before You Commit In August 2016, Delta Air Lines ran a routine scheduled test of the backup generator at their Atlanta data center. A transformer caught fire. Three hundred of Delta's 7,000 servers, improperly connected to a single power source, went dark. They couldn't fail over to backups. The servers that stayed online couldn't communicate with the ones that hadn't. The entire system collapsed: passenger check-in, baggage, websites, kiosks, and airport displays. Gone. Delta cancelled 2,100 flights over three days. $150 million in losses. Thousands of passengers slept on airport floors. The system had redundancy designed in. The backup had been tested. The specific failure mode, servers with no alternate power connection, was a known vulnerability that nobody had ever stopped to question. A year before the fire, cognitive psychologist Gary Klein, the researcher who developed the pre-mortem, had written a thought experiment describing almost this exact scenario. Imagine, he wrote, that an airline CEO gathered top management and asked: "Every one of our flights around the world has been cancelled for two straight days. Why?" People would think terrorism first. The real progress, Klein said, would come from mundane answers: a reservation system down, a backup that didn't activate, a cascade nobody had traced in advance. Delta built what Klein described. Without running the question that would have found it. The pre-mortem is that question. Before you commit to a significant decision, assume it's six months later, and the decision failed. Not possibly, but definitely. Then ask: What went wrong? What did you know but not say? What did someone sense but find too awkward to raise in the room? "What could go wrong?" produces hedged answers. People soften concerns to preserve harmony. "It failed. What happened?" changes the psychology entirely. You're not being negative. You're being forensic. The things that surface, the concerns that felt impolitic, the risks that seemed too small to mention, are frequently the ones that end up mattering most. Each of these four strategies is a designed defense against the same thing: the systematic capture of your judgment before you notice it happening. That's mindjacking. And now you have four ways to make it harder. But strategies only work if you remember to use them. And you won't remember. Not when you're depleted at 7pm, not when the room is staring at you, not when your identity is on the line. That's not a character flaw. That's just how it works. So we're going to take everything you just learned and put it on one page. A page you'll sign. A page you'll keep somewhere you'll actually see it. Your calm self, right now, is building the system your future self will thank you for. The people who shape outcomes consistently aren't necessarily the sharpest thinkers in the room. They're the ones whose judgment is still intact when everyone else's has degraded. That's a practice, not a talent. The full video and written deep-dive on mindjacking are linked below at philmckinney.com/mindjacking. Your Decision Constitution Remember the Ulysses insight from the beginning of this episode. Your calm self setting rules for your compromised self. That's exactly what this is. A Decision Constitution is one page. Five commitments. Written when your thinking is clear, so the version of you under pressure has something to stand on. Not a to-do list. Not a productivity hack. A contract with yourself. Here's what goes in it. Your Timing Rule. You already know that your judgment degrades as the day runs long. So name it. What are the specific conditions (time of day, number of back-to-back meetings, hours of sleep) that disqualify you from making a high-stakes, hard-to-reverse call without a mandatory pause first? Write that line. Hold it like a policy. Your Pre-Decision List. Think of the situations where you consistently make choices you later regret. The late-day request you said yes to when you meant no. The urgency that overrode your better judgment. Pick three. Write a standing rule for each, specific enough that you can invoke it without having to think. "I don't make new commitments without sleeping on it." That's a rule. "I'll try to be more careful" is not. Your Pre-Meeting Anchor. Before any meeting where a significant decision will be made, you write down where you stand. Three sentences. What you believe, what evidence supports it, and what would genuinely change your mind. Not in the car on the way. Before. That record is what protects your thinking from the room. Your Pre-Mortem Trigger. Name the threshold that makes a decision significant enough to require a pre-mortem. A dollar amount. An impact on more than a certain number of people. A commitment lasting longer than six months. Whatever your threshold is, write it down. Once a decision crosses it, the pre-mortem is non-negotiable. Your Kitchen Cabinet Trigger. Your cabinet is only useful if you engage them before you've decided, not after. So name the conditions that require you to bring a decision to them first. A decision that's hard to reverse. A situation where you have significant personal stakes in the outcome. A moment where you notice everyone around you wants you to decide a certain way. A decision you find yourself avoiding thinking about clearly. Any one of those is enough. Two or more is non-negotiable. Now print out your decision constitution. Sign it. Put it somewhere you'll actually see it before the moments that count. This is your Ulysses contract. Your clear-headed self, right now, is setting the terms your compromised self will have to honor when the pressure is real, and the easy path is pointing the wrong way. Closing That's Part 2 of the Thinking 101 series. Fifteen episodes. If you've been here from the beginning, you've built something real. The series has been running for 21 weeks. The show behind it has been running for 20 years. And how we got here traces back to a single conversation. Twenty years ago, a mentor of mine, Bob Davis, gave me a challenge I couldn't shake. I'd asked him how I could ever repay him for what he'd done for my career. He laughed and said I couldn't. The only option, he said, was to pay it forward. That's why this show exists. That's why it has always existed. The show was called Killer Innovations because that's what felt right in 2005. Bold, a little provocative, built for a moment when podcasting was brand new, and nobody knew what it was supposed to be. Tens of millions of downloads later, we're still here. We have regular listeners in more than 50 countries. Some of you are younger than the podcast itself. But somewhere along the way, the show became something more specific. It stopped being about innovation tips and started being about the innovation decisions that actually shape outcomes. About the patterns underneath the decisions. About the skills that matter most when the pressure is real. On March 23rd, the show's 20th anniversary, we're making major changes. The podcast. The YouTube channel. All of it. And if you have thoughts about where we've been or where we're going, I want to hear them. There's a contact form at philmckinney.com. Send me a note. I'll see you on the 23rd. Endnotes "their follow-through nearly doubled": Gharad Bryan, Dean S. Karlan, and Scott Nelson, "Commitment Contracts," Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 73 / Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 980 (October 23, 2009). https://ssrn.com/abstract=1493378. The research draws on Karlan and co-founders' development of StickK.com, a commitment contract platform launched in 2008 at Yale. Platform data consistently shows that users who add meaningful stakes — financial or reputational — to their commitments achieve their goals at roughly double the rate of those who don't. The underlying mechanism was established in Karlan's earlier field research in the Philippines: Nava Ashraf, Dean Karlan, and Wesley Yin, "Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence From a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines," Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 2 (May 2006): 635–672. doi:10.1162/qjec.2006.121.2.635. https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/121/2/635/1884028. Pre-commitment works not by increasing virtue but by removing the decision from the moment of temptation. For accessible application, see Ian Ayres, Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done (New York: Bantam, 2010), ISBN 978-0-553-80763-9. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/6794/carrots-and-sticks-by-ian-ayres/. "a finite amount of decision-making capacity each day": Roy F. Baumeister, Ellen Bratslavsky, Mark Muraven, and Dianne M. Tice, "Ego Depletion: Is the Active Self a Limited Resource?" Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 74, no. 5 (1998): 1252–1265. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.74.5.1252. https://roybaumeister.com/1998/03/16/ego-depletion-is-the-active-self-a-limited-resource/. Also see Roy F. Baumeister and John Tierney, Willpower: Rediscovering the Greatest Human Strength (New York: Penguin, 2011). Baumeister's strength model of self-control proposes that willpower, decision-making, and self-regulation all draw from a single, depletable resource — what he termed "ego depletion." Subsequent work has debated the precise mechanism, with some researchers arguing the effect is motivational rather than metabolic. The practical implication, however, is consistent across studies: decision quality degrades as the day progresses, and the effect is most pronounced for complex, high-stakes choices. For a summary of the current scientific debate on the mechanism, see Michael Inzlicht and Brandon J. Schmeichel, "What Is Ego Depletion? Toward a Mechanistic Revision of the Resource Model of Self-Control," Perspectives on Psychological Science 7, no. 5 (2012): 450–463. doi:10.1177/1745691612454134. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26168503/. "It rewrites your perception": Gregory S. Berns, Jonathan Chappelow, Caroline F. Zink, Giuseppe Pagnoni, Megan E. Martin-Skurski, and Jim Richards, "Neurobiological Correlates of Social Conformity and Independence During Mental Rotation," Biological Psychiatry 58, no. 3 (August 1, 2005): 245–253. doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2005.04.012. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15978553/. This fMRI study at Emory University extended Solomon Asch's classic conformity experiments by imaging participants' brains as they conformed to or resisted incorrect group answers. The key finding: when participants went along with the group, the activity appeared not in the prefrontal cortex — the seat of conscious decision-making — but in the occipital-parietal network responsible for visual and spatial perception. In other words, participants who conformed weren't consciously deciding to lie; the group had altered what they actually perceived. Standing alone, by contrast, activated the amygdala, a region associated with emotional distress — consistent with the experience of social dissent as genuinely uncomfortable rather than merely inconvenient. "Three hundred of Delta's 7,000 servers": Yevgeniy Sverdlik, "Delta: Data Center Outage Cost Us $150M," Data Center Knowledge, September 8, 2016. https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/outages/delta-data-center-outage-cost-us-150m. Also see W. H. Highleyman, "Delta Air Lines Cancels 2,100 Flights Due to Power Outage," Availability Digest (September 2016). https://availabilitydigest.com/public_articles/1109/delta.pdf. On the morning of August 8, 2016, a fire triggered during a routine backup generator test at Delta's Atlanta data center caused a transformer failure. Approximately 300 of Delta's 7,000 servers were improperly connected to a single power source with no alternate feed, and when that feed failed, those servers went dark. Because those servers couldn't communicate with the rest of the system, the entire network collapsed. Delta cancelled roughly 2,100 flights over three days, leaving an estimated 250,000 passengers stranded. Total losses reached $150 million. "cognitive psychologist Gary Klein, the researcher who developed the pre-mortem": Gary Klein, "Performing a Project Premortem," Harvard Business Review 85, no. 9 (September 2007): 18–19. https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem. Klein developed the pre-mortem method over several decades of applied research in naturalistic decision-making. The technique asks teams to assume, before committing to a plan, that the plan has already failed — definitively, not possibly — and then work backward to identify causes. Klein's research found that this reframing dramatically increases the willingness of team members to surface concerns they would otherwise suppress to preserve group harmony. The method has since been endorsed by Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler as a practical tool for reducing overconfidence in planning. For Klein's broader framework of naturalistic decision-making, see Gary Klein, Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998). https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262343251/sources-of-power/.
Questions? Comments? Episode suggestions? Send us a text message!From the archive: Episode #193: Phill Agnew is a marketing expert and host of the highest-ranking marketing podcast in the UK. He explains what behavioural science involves, how to use marketing principles to get a pay rise, and how to persuade your boss you have a good idea.What you'll learn[01:30] How Phill became a marketing expert.[02:49] How curiosity gaps work.[03:48] What behavioural science involves.[05:30] What a “nudge means in a behavioural science context.[07:16] The difference between a nudge and manipulating someone.[09:16] The variable reward techniques gambling apps use to get you addicted to them.[13:18] How social media uses variable rewards to keep you browsing.[14:08] Positive ways variable rewards can be used.[15:15] How to use anchoring to negotiate a salary rise.[18:26] The problems with anchoring.[19:28] Using loss aversion to get a pay rise.[21:15] How to use the commitment principle and consistency principle to get a pay rise. [24:11] The power of “no” and the door-in-the-face technique.[26:52] How to have a difficult conversation with a colleague.[28:48] What supercommunicators do and how they communicate.[33:20] Techniques you can use when business networking.[36:10] How to persuade your boss that you have a good idea.[42:08] How giving people autonomy changes how they respond.[45:12] How to use behavioural science in the workplace.Resources mentioned in this episodePlease note that some of these are affiliate links and we may get a commission in the event that you make a purchase. This helps us to cover our expenses and is at no additional cost to you.Nudge, Richard Thaler and Cass SunsteinDecoded, Phil BardenHooked, Nir EyalIndistractable, Nir EyalOctopus EnergyDishoomNever Split the Difference, Chris VossYou Have More Influence Than You Think, Vanessa BohmsThe Power of Habit, Charles DuhiggSupercommunicators, Charles DuhiggHow To Win Friends and Influence People, Dale CarnegieNudge: Can Charles Duhigg Make Me Popular?Episode 183: The secrets to effective business development and getting more clients - with Deb Feder of Feder DevelopmentInfluence, Robert CialdiniThe Art of Thinking Clearly, Rolf Dobellihttps://changeworklife.com/using-behavioural-
My guest today is Kristin Olson, Global Head of Alternatives for Wealth at Goldman Sachs. Last year she was named one of the 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance by Barron's. In today's episode, Kristin discusses the explosive growth of the alternatives market over the past decade. She explains what has driven interest from individual investors, particularly millennials, and touches on recent volatility within software and private credit BDCs. Finally, she shares her expectations for the 2026 IPO market, the potential for renewed interest in hedge funds, and how AI is set to reshape sourcing, underwriting, and portfolio construction. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Introduction of Kristin Olson (3:16) Evolution of alternative investments (10:19) Secondary strategies (13:05) Private equity alpha and liquidity concerns (19:13) Private credit market concerns (22:29) Manager selection and due diligence (24:17) Non-traditional investments and hedge fund interest (27:17) Millennial interest in alternatives (31:40) Infrastructure and global opportunities ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect's LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th here. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit www.funds.alphaarchitect.com Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
My guest today is Aswath Damodaran, a professor at NYU, where he teaches corporate finance and equity valuation. In today's episode, Professor Damodaran explains why he trimmed two Magnificent Seven stocks. He digs into AI's real impact on valuations and moats, why big software incumbents face an Innovator's Dilemma, and why the biggest risk isn't tech spending itself, but overconfidence and debt-fueled capex that could ripple beyond tech. He also weighs in on corporate Bitcoin balance sheets, sports franchises as “trophy assets” driven by billionaire demand rather than cash flows, and the rise of prediction markets. (0:00) Starts (0:34) Professor Damodaran on the Magnificent Seven (7:26) OpenAI's growth, AI's impact on valuations, and software industries (16:07) High capex investment risks (23:10) Market timing (33:43) Trust and the rise of gold and silver (45:12) Cryptocurrencies on company balance sheets (47:42) Sports franchises (52:27) Prediction markets ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This episode of The Power of Zero Show sees David McKnight discussing the single most hated retirement strategy in America: annuities. Interestingly enough, annuities are also one of the most powerful tools you can use to protect yourself from the biggest financial risk you face in retirement. Longevity risk, a retirement danger most retirees never fully grasp, is the reason why this topic matters so much. As David explains, "Longevity risk is the risk of living longer than you expected, running out of money before you run out of life." While some people shrug longevity risk off as a good problem to have, it's actually the biggest risk in retirement (from a financial standpoint), as it is a risk amplifier. In other words, it magnifies everything else that can go wrong – such as inflation, long-term care, withdrawal risk, and sequence of returns risk. The reasons why many people hate annuities are legitimate, while others are propaganda. For more than 20 years, Kenneth Fisher has led a massive anti-annuity crusade. Remember: there's only one way to truly eliminate longevity risk from your retirement, and that's through a guaranteed lifetime stream of income in the form of an annuity. Research on annuities – something that has been ongoing for the last four decades – has shown that people with a guaranteed lifetime income tend to spend more freely in retirement than people living solely off an investment portfolio. David touches upon Richard Thaler's concept of the Annuity Puzzle. Annuities solve a problem that no stock portfolio ever can: a portfolio can't guarantee lifetime income you cannot outlive. With the American national debt exploding, which would probably lead to higher tax rates, an internal Roth conversion allows you to get ahead of that. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Kenneth "Ken" Fisher Richard Thaler
When Richard Thaler first published Nudge, the world was just starting to believe in his brand of behavioral economics. In this 2021 episode, we ask: How has nudge theory held up in the face of a global financial meltdown, a pandemic, and other existential crises? SOURCES:Richard Thaler, professor of economics at the University of Chicago. RESOURCES:Nudge: The Final Edition, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2021).Sludge: What Stops Us from Getting Things Done and What to Do About It, by Cass Sunstein (2021)."Sludge: Americans Spend 11.4 Billion Hours Filling Out Federal Paperwork," by Cass Sunstein (Big Think, 2021)."Carbon Taxation in Sweden," by Government Offices of Sweden Ministry of Finance (2021)."The Climate Club: How to Fix a Failing Global Effort," by William Nordhaus (Foreign Affairs, 2020)."Organ Donation: Presumed Consent and Focusing on What Matters," by Rebecca Brown (The Journal of Medical Ethics Blog, 2017). EXTRAS:"Sludge," series by Freakonomics Radio (2025).“People Aren't Dumb. The World Is Hard. (Ep. 340 Rebroadcast),” by Freakonomics Radio (2018). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Today's guest is Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank. In today's episode, Jim walks through lessons from his annual report, The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing, which covers over 200 years of market data from 56 countries. He explains why cash is one of the riskiest long-term assets, how inflation quietly destroys wealth, and why valuation is the single most reliable predictor of long-term returns. He also discusses how fiat money has reshaped bonds, gold, and equities since 1971. To close, Jim reminds us that history consistently rewards investors who buy cheap, diversify globally, and respect long-term market cycles. (0:00) Starts (1:54) Importance of real vs nominal returns (5:36) Historical returns of gold (8:28) Global investment opportunities (18:06) Bond market performance and growth's impact on asset prices (23:11) Potential impact of AI (30:34) Valuation importance (37:03) Index weighting strategies (42:43) Predictors of bond performance and equity return distribution (47:01) Historical periods of high valuations (52:45) Global banking and stock market performance (55:12) Impact of AI on economics ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Visit Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
David McKnight explores one of the most fascinating and misunderstood topics: Retirement planning annuities. In the article Annuitization Puzzles, Economics Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler tries to answer a deceptively simple question: If annuities are so good at protecting retirees from outliving their money, why don't more people buy them? Thaler, one of the founding fathers of behavioral economics, coined the phrase "the annuity puzzle" to describe a striking contradiction between theory and real life. According to traditional economic models, the rational choice would be for retirees to annuitize at least some portion of their wealth – yet, only very few Americans go out and buy a pure life annuity. The answers to this contradiction are almost entirely psychological. Loss aversion, loss of control, complexity and distrust, fear of disinheriting errors, underestimating longevity risks are the key reasons why that happens. David points out that most retirees believe they won't live as long as they actually will;they underestimate the probability of living into their 90s. "The Annuity Puzzle exists because economics assumes we're rational, while real retirees behave like human beings. They're driven by emotions, fears, and biases, not economic data," says David. Remember not all annuities are created equal. David touches upon the key differences between immediate and fixed index annuities. Did you know that, while they aren't stock market replacements, fixed index annuities (FIAs) make for excellent bond alternatives? Furthermore, FIAs do resolve the flexibility and liquidity concerns many retirees face. In his book Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement, David discusses what he considers the most powerful innovation in the annuity space today – he shares more about it in this episode. What he discusses isn't the old single premium immediate annuity you may be familiar with… rather, he illustrates a modern retirement income engine that blends the science of risk pooling with the tax-free advantages of Roth planning. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Annuitization Puzzles by Richard Thaler, Shlomo Benartzi, and Alessandro Previtero S&P 500 Penguin Random House
We all love the thrill of winning - the house, the promotion, the deal. But as Nobel laureate Richard Thaler explains, some of our biggest “wins” are actually the moments we set ourselves up to lose. Thaler breaks down why we overbid, overpay, and talk ourselves into choices we regret. And he shares simple tricks to help you catch yourself before you make a mistake you can't undo.
Today's returning guests are Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers, and D.A. Wallach, a venture capital investor for Time BioVentures. In today's episode, we unpack the recent biotech surge through the lens of Dan's recently published biotech report. We also explore China's growing biotech market, shifting IPO and VC trends, and how valuation tools like CAPE fit into today's regime. Finally, we also discuss technology's effect on productivity and corporate profits in the US, Japan's economic anomaly, home country bias, and more. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Dan's research on the biotech sector (19:10) D.A. on biotech in China (27:01) IPO landscape (31:01) Biotech VC update from D.A. (32:16) Are US stocks overvalued? (51:53) Dan's view of Japanese stocks (57:40) Global equity markets and home country bias (1:03:34) Book recommendations (1:11:55) Wrap-up and future plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- ----- Sponsor: Visit Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With economic systems failing millions of Americans, Jon is joined by Nobel laureate and University of Chicago Professor Richard Thaler, one of the founding fathers of behavioral economics. Together, they explore why conventional economics fails to account for how people actually behave, discuss Thaler's approach to improving systems from within, and debate whether incremental improvements can meaningfully reform broken systems. Plus, Jon talks Nationalizing Voting, Suing Trump, and Bad Bunny vs. Kid Rock! This episode is brought to you by: MAGIC SPOON - Get $5 off your next order at https://magicspoon.com/tws SHARK NINJA ESPRESSO MAKER - Get $60 off the Ninja Luxe Cafe Premier Series with code STEWART exclusively on sharkninja.com while supplies last AVOCADO GREEN MATTRESS - Get 15% off mattresses at https://AvocadoGreenMattress.com/TWS FACTOR - Eat smart at https://FactorMeals.com/TWS50OFF and use code TWS50OFF to get 50% off your first box, plus Free Breakfast for 1 Year. QUINCE - Go to https://Quince.com/TWS for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Follow The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart on social media for more: > YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@weeklyshowpodcast > Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/weeklyshowpodcast> TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@weeklyshowpodcast > X: https://x.com/weeklyshowpod > BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/theweeklyshowpodcast.com Host/Executive Producer – Jon Stewart Executive Producer – James Dixon Executive Producer – Chris McShane Executive Producer – Caity Gray Lead Producer – Lauren Walker Producer – Brittany Mehmedovic Producer – Gillian Spear Video Editor & Engineer – Rob Vitolo Audio Editor & Engineer – Nicole Boyce Music by Hansdle Hsu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In today's radio show, Meb breaks down why market-cap–weighted investing may be nearing its limits after an extraordinary run in U.S. stocks. He explores CAPE ratios near historic extremes, the quiet resurgence of gold and commodities, and why equal weight, value, and global markets are suddenly back in the conversation. To close, Meb explains how trend following and real assets can help investors navigate regime shifts. Note: this was recorded on January 29, 2026. (0:00) Starts (3:03) US stock market update (11:24) Global stock performance (18:03) The role of gold in asset allocation (27:52) Demographics of gold investors (35:47) One-fund portfolios & 351 conversions (42:07) Meb's travel plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
My guest today is Russell Napier, an independent financial market strategist, financial historian, author of The Solid Ground investment report, and founder of the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes. In today's episode, Russell explains why investors are asking the wrong questions at a critical turning point in financial history. He how financial repression, shifting monetary regimes, and political priorities are reshaping capital markets. To close, he explains the dangers of yield chasing, why technology won't defeat inflation, and why gold may be signaling what comes next. (0:00) Starts (3:14) Regime change & parallels to post-World War II Europe (8:06) The search for yield is dangerous (17:38) The disconnect between GDP growth and equity returns (23:14) The impact of inflation & deflation on equity valuations (25:56) Technology doesn't defeat inflation (30:20) Monetary system changes, gold prices, and American exceptionalism (37:50) Extrapolation is the opiate of the people (48:26) Book recommendations ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why do smart people keep making predictably bad decisions? Behavioral economist Alex Imas joins us to unpack The Winner's Curse, loss aversion, and the persistent biases that shape markets, policy, and everyday choices. We explore why classic economic models fall short and what behavioral economics reveals about how humans really decide. Topics [0:00] Introduction and speed round with Alex Imas [11:55] The Winner's Curse and its implications [21:13] Behavioral economics and standard economic matters [28:01] Loss aversion and decision-making [35:04] Behavioral economics in policy and law [41:00] Tom Sawyer economics [47:30] Social media, attention, and exploitation of bias [56:38] The importance of cooperation and social systems [58:40] New music in 2026 [1:07:53] Grooving session: framing, preferences, and happiness ©2026 Behavioral Grooves Links The Winner's Curse by Richard Thaler and Alex Imas About Alex Join us on Substack! Join the Behavioral Grooves community Subscribe to Behavioral Grooves on YouTube Support Behavioral Grooves Musical Links Fontaines DC - I Love You ALEXSUCKS - The Gutter
Today's guest is Richard Bernstein, Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, which he founded in 2009. He was previously the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch. In today's episode, Richard argues that the market is defined by rampant speculation and extreme narrowness. He explains why he's bullish on both dividend-paying and international stocks and believes crypto is the first global investment bubble. To close, he warns that corporate credit is priced for perfection, inflation risks aren't gone, and diversification is the best defense in a bubble-prone market. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Richard on market narrowness & speculation (6:21) The Earnings Expectations Life Cycle (12:33) Non-US stocks are undervalued (18:38) Small cap trends and long-term investment themes (24:14) American Industrialization Renaissance (27:10) Corporate credit risk (33:42) Is the Fed independent? (36:38) Is crypto the first global investment bubble? (41:11) The importance of financial history (46:07) Richard's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Join Alpha Architect's LIVE webinar Feb 3rd to learn if a 351 Exchange may fit your clients' needs. Before the webinar, visit Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner's Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage' opportunities in markets really a free lunch?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Alex on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion25:18 - The winner's curse and common value auctions30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing36:50...
My guest today is Marc Faber, editor of the “Gloom Boom & Doom Report.” In today's episode, Marc explores the unpredictable nature of financial markets, the resurgence of precious metals and how money printing has fueled economic inequality. He argues that bonds are currently under-owned and may offer opportunity, and explains why emerging markets such as Thailand and Vietnam deserve consideration. To close, Marc underscores the importance of diversification in an increasingly uncertain world. (0:00) Starts (2:25) The rise of precious metals (10:18) Impact of money printing on asset prices and social problems (23:14) Bond bull case (29:31) History of wealth redistribution (36:13) Global investment insights: Thailand & beyond (48:40) Importance of diversification ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Want to learn more about 351 Exchanges? Visit Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
BackgroundBioArticles and Papers Discussed“The Theory Behind the Age-Related Positivity Effect,” Andrew Reed and Laura Carstensen, NIH.gov, Sept. 27, 2012.“Investing Without Blind Spots,” Better Vantage podcast, Nov. 12, 2025.“Out of Sight, Out of Market: The IRA Cash Drag,” by Andy Reed et al., Vanguard.com, Sept. 5, 2024.“Advisors and Investors Split on Inflation, Bond Views,” by Xiao Xu and Andy Reed, Vanguard.com, Sept. 12, 2025.“Stress, Debt, and the Power of Planning,” by Anna Madamba and Andy Reed, Vanguard.com, April 9, 2025“Improving Retirement Outcomes by Default: The Case for an IRA QDIA,” by Andy Reed, et al., Vanguard.com, July 2024."Maximizing versus Satisficing: Happiness Is a Matter of Choice," by Barry Schwartz, Andrew Ward, et al., NIH.gov, November 2002.“The Ostrich Effect: Selective Attention to Information,” George Loewenstein and Duane Seppi, CMU.edu, Feb. 11, 2009.“Inside the Minds of Equity Income Fund Investors,” Sharon Hill and Paulo Costa, Vanguard.com, Aug. 26, 2025.“Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors,” Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, Berkeley.edu, April 2000.Books DiscussedThe Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less, by Barry SchwartzNudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, by Richard Thaler and Cass SunsteinThe Elements of Choice: Why the Way We Decide Matters, by Eric JohnsonOther“Was Bogle's Princeton Thesis Eerily Prescient?” by Jess Bebel, Morningstar.com, May 27, 2022. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
My guest today is Cullen Roche, Chief Investment Officer at Orcam Financial Group and Discipline Funds. His latest book is Your Perfect Portfolio: The ultimate guide to using the world's most powerful investing strategies. In today's episode, Cullen walks through the principles of portfolio construction. He emphasizes the importance of viewing investments as a means of savings rather than a quick path to wealth. Cullen explores the significance of time horizons in investment decisions, why real returns are what matter, and the origins of the 60/40 portfolio. (0:00) Starts (1:38) Principles of portfolio construction (6:12) Real vs nominal returns (11:01) Asset allocation and time horizon considerations (26:59) Evaluating the role of government bonds in portfolios (30:21) Origins of the 60/40 portfolio (37:44) The forward cap portfolio (46:49) The concept of duration in investing (56:23) Disciplined Funds (1:02:39) Asset liability matching (1:03:15) Factors influencing investor behavior ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Asset Management, which manages over $70 billion AUM. Jack was RIA Intel's “CIO of the Year” for 2022 and was previously the CIO at BMO for 17 years. In today's episode, Jack walks through the ins and outs of investing in founder-led companies and what has led them to historically outperform. He also explains his approach to asset allocation, which structures portfolios based on time horizons rather than traditional asset classes. Finally, he offers an outlook for equities and fixed income next year, discusses private market opportunities, and looks at the future of Cresset Asset Management. (0:00) Starts (1:51) Overview of Cresset Asset Management (6:40) Founder-led companies: Advantages and portfolio impact (19:52) Fixed income and private market investment strategies (26:32) Future prospects in Opportunity Zones and equities (31:15) Currency considerations and foreign investment opportunities (37:01) Jack's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest is David McWilliams, an economist, podcast host and author. David worked at the Central Bank of Ireland, UBS and BNP Paribas and is the founder of the Kilkenomics Festival, a unique blend of economics and stand-up comedy. His book is called The History of Money: A Story of Humanity, which is my favorite book from 2025. In today's episode, David walks through the evolution of money over the last 5,000 years. He explains why money is a foundational social technology that is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic. He delves into historical anecdotes—from clay tablets in Mesopotamia to Gutenberg's printing press to Martin Luther's disruptive influence on the church. Throughout the episode, he emphasizes that economists need to do a better job helping people understand money and its role in navigating modern economic principles. (0:00) Starts (1:26) David explains the Kilkenomics Festival (3:41) David McWilliams on "Money, The History of Money, A Story of Humanity" (9:55) Evolution and trust in money throughout history (26:28) Impact of the Gutenberg printing press and Martin Luther (36:42) Historical perspectives on speculation and losing money (43:18) Future of economics, storytelling, and equity culture differences (49:18) Educating youth on finance and investing ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Learn more about Alpha Architect and important information about the fund: funds.alphaarchitect.com/aaua Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). ----- Ad Disclaimer: This information does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by The Idea Farm. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The Idea Farm does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ever put in the winning bid for something on an auction site only to realize you significantly overpaid? Yeah, there's a phrase for that. On today's show: the winner's curse.Richard Thaler's new book with Alex O. Imas is The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now.Read Planet Money's newsletter on the winner's curse. For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
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