Podcast appearances and mentions of Eugene Fama

Are financial markets becoming less efficient? Famous investor Cliff Asness certainly thinks so. In his paper published last year, “The Less-Efficient Market Hypothesis,” Asness argues that social media and low interest rates, among other factors, have distorted market information so that stocks have become disconnected from their true values. This distortion has directed funds toward undeserving assets and firms and staved off necessary market corrections.Asness is the founder, managing principal, and chief investment officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher on various financial and investment topics and received an MBA and PhD in finance from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. From her early days as a journalist reporting on Wall Street, Bethany recounts Asness as an outspoken, successful quant investor: one who invests based primarily on the fundamentals of the market rather than those of the firm. She also remembers him being “colloquial” and willing to be “experimental” with ideas. Asness's recent paper continues that experimental style as he challenges the legacy of the efficient market hypothesis on which his PhD advisor, Nobel Prize laureate Eugene Fama, made his name, and which argues that asset prices reflect all available information, making it impossible to “beat” or outperform the market.Asness joins Bethany and Luigi to discuss how the market has fundamentally changed due to new technologies and macroeconomic trends and how investment strategies must adapt, what these changes mean for long-term productivity and growth, how researchers and investors should think about emerging market factors like tariffs and artificial intelligence, and why he's not investing in TrumpCoin anytime soon.Disclosure: In October 2024, Chicago Booth received a $60 million gift from Cliff Asness and John Liew to name its Master in Finance program.Bonus: Revisit our recent episode with Eugene Fama, Why This Nobel Economist Thinks Bitcoin is Going to Zero

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don and Tom reluctantly return to the topic of Bitcoin, using its recent price spike to explore deeper questions about market efficiency, irrational investor behavior, and the legitimacy of crypto as an investment. With nods to Eugene Fama, Cliff Asness, and some well-aimed skepticism, the duo debates whether price reflects value or just hype. Alongside listener calls from California, Canada, and North Carolina, they address portfolio allocation, pension rollover strategies, and even debunk gold's glitter as a bond replacement—punctuated by a truly explosive segment on “FartCoin.” Yes, really. 0:56 Tom and Don reluctantly dive into Bitcoin and crypto's price spike 1:37 Are crypto markets truly efficient? Academia vs. reality 2:44 Price goes up because price went up? Questioning efficient market theory 4:17 Cliff Asness on how social media distorts collective investment judgment 6:23 Don restates the three ways to make money: work, luck, dishonesty 6:50 Harvard-style debate: Can markets be truly efficient? 8:24 Rational ignorance and emotional investing behavior 9:36 Fama says Bitcoin will go to zero within a decade 10:30 Dogecoin and meme coins: speculative absurdity vs. real purpose 12:06 Investment principles: Diversify, plan, ignore hype 13:51 Tom and Don are ‘contrary indicators'—Bitcoin jokes ensue 14:14 Call: Clinton in CA asks where to put pension payments he doesn't need yet 16:13 Investment advice for 5-year+ horizon: high yield/cash/bond/stock mix 17:48 Tom's wife builds a wheelbarrow, financial education “nonprofit” mailer 19:11 Crypto joke segment: FartCoin rises to $3.50… and the bad puns begin 22:02 Call: Jeff from Canada on gold returns vs. bond stability 24:24 Should gold be part of a diversified portfolio? Historical returns debunked 28:39 Gold bar nostalgia vs. investment logic 29:58 TRM T-shirt giveaway and gold vs. bonds as ‘cool' vs. smart 31:30 Call: Zach in NC—Should he roll old 401(k) into state pension plan? 33:10 Breakdown of NC pension plan fund options and a 90/10 allocation strategy 36:03 Don signs up for a “non-sales” financial education class by an unlicensed guy 37:50 Red flags: financial advisor not registered anywhere, mystery deepens Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Cameron joins Ben for his first AMA as we bring you the sixth edition of our Listener Questions and Investing Lessons mini-series. Diving right in, Ben and Cameron share their stance on the multi-host format of the Rational Reminder podcast before walking us through the new PWL Retirement Planning Tool. Then, we unpack our venture with OneDigital, recent changes at PWL Capital, how we make each episode of this show, and how we allocate our time across podcast and business responsibilities. We also examine our protocol regarding guests, why Cameron and Ben would never gamble with their own money, how the human condition prevents the full comprehension of investing as a principle, and smart money moves to make under current market conditions. To end, we discuss the effects of a capital gains tax increase, common mistakes to avoid in managing personal finances, programs and technologies for financial advisors, and the After Show, which ends with an important discussion on testicular cancer.          Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:00) How Ben and Cameron feel about the multi-host format of this podcast. (0:01:12) The new PWL Retirement Planning Tool, developed by Braden Warwick.  (0:03:13) Joining OneDigital and other PWL changes from the past four months.  (0:09:05) Behind the scenes: Making a Rational Reminder podcast episode. (0:12:38) Allocating time for research, preparation, creating content, and business. (0:17:27) How guests inform our approach to research and preparation.  (0:19:29) The reasons why we're not risk-averse but have no appetite for gambling. (0:24:26) Why investing has been largely solved, except for the human aspect.  (0:30:13) The most “rational” investing practices under current market conditions.  (0:34:25) How to approach a capital gains tax increase, and why banks do what they do. (0:38:03) The most costly mistakes when it comes to managing personal finances. (0:40:12) Why we don't offer advice-only planning for DIY investors. (0:44:07) Financial app tips and tricks and programs and technologies to be aware of.  (0:48:23) The After Show: Alternate personalities, noise filtering, and testicular cancer.     Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Braden Warwick on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/braden-warwick-a40b48a3  PWL Capital Retirement Planning Tool — https://research-tools.pwlcapital.com/research/retirement  OneDigital — https://www.onedigital.com/   Episode 341: PWL's Next Chapter — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/341  Episode 355: Do Index Funds Incur Adverse Selection Costs? — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/355   Episode 200: Prof. Eugene Fama — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/200  Episode 100: Prof. Kenneth French: Expect the Unexpected — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/100  Episode 93: Cliff Asness from AQR: The Impact of Stories, Behaviour and Risk — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/93  Episode 270: What Happened to All the Billionaires? with Victor Haghani and James White — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/270   Episode 11: Robb Engen: Simple vs. Complex — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/11  Episode 203: S*** (Misguided) Financial Advisors Say — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/203  The Money Scope Podcast — https://moneyscope.ca/   Financial Advisor Success Ep 433: When You 10X Your Advisory Firm to over $20M of Revenue…And Want to 10X Again, with Cameron Passmore — https://www.kitces.com/blog/cameron-passmore-pwl-capital-10x-revenue-growth-advisory-firm/  The Podcast Consultant — https://thepodcastconsultant.com/    The Long View — https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view   Eli Beracha on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/eli-beracha-b8082250/   CIBC Mutual Funds — https://www.cibc.com/en/personal-banking/investments/mutual-funds.html  Microsoft Excel — https://www.microsoft.com/microsoft-365/excel  Python — https://www.python.org/  Monte Carlo — https://www.montecarlodata.com/  ChatGPT — https://chatgpt.com/    Papers From Today's Episode:    ‘The Arithmetic of Active Management' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/4479386  ‘Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/1926560    

Marco Sammon joins Ben and Dan to unpack his latest paper, ‘Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition', beginning with how Marco's work (co-written by John Shim) compares to the Nobel Prize-winner Bill Sharpe's paper, ‘Arithmetic of Active Management.' We investigate the missing links in Sharpe's logic before defining “the market” and ascertaining the main objectives of index funds. Then, we dive deeper into the mechanics of Marco's paper, index and market tracking errors, why delayed rebalancing is more beneficial than instant rebalancing, and the role of technology in the modern tracking error obsession. We also assess the passive-active spectrum of index funds in portfolio management and learn how investors should choose their optimal excess return. To end, Marco shares practical applications for improving performance benchmarked against traditional indexes, and The Aftershow is all about bridging the gap between PWL Capital and you, our listeners. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:00) Key takeaways from Marco Sammon's latest paper and how it compares to Bill Sharpe's ‘Arithmetic of Active Management.' (0:08:10) Marco describes what's missing from the ‘Arithmetic of Active Management' logic. (0:09:11) Defining ‘the market', the main objective of an index fund, and how index funds track the market. (0:15:57) The mechanics of Marco's paper, ‘Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition.' (0:18:38) Factor exposure, index and market tracking errors, and how often index funds trade. (0:26:28) Rebalancing less frequently; why delayed does better than instant rebalancing. (0:31:59) The tech run-up and lazy rebalancing, and the modern tracking error obsession.  (0:36:51) Assessing the passive-active spectrum of index funds in portfolio management. (0:41:02) Exploring how investors should decide on their optimal excess return.  (0:45:14) How the rising index fund ownership of stocks impacts the implicit cost of indexing (0:46:58) Practical ways to improve performance benchmarked against traditional indexes. (0:52:30) The Aftershow: Canadian finances, more airtime for Cameron, and PWL – OneDigital.    Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Episode 322: Prof. Marco Sammon: How are Passive Investors Affecting the Stock Market? — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/322 Episode 200: Prof. Eugene Fama — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/200  Episode 268: Itzhak Ben-David: ETFs, Investor Behavior, and Hedge Fund Fees — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/268  Episode 112: Michael Kitces: Retirement Research and the Business of Financial Advice — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/112  Marco Sammon — https://marcosammon.com/  Marco Sammon on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/marco-sammon-b3b81456/  Marco Sammon on X — https://x.com/mcsammon19  Marco Sammon | Harvard Business School — https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=1326895  Marco Sammon Email — mcsammon@gmail.com  John Shim on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-shim-2931271b/  Vanguard — https://global.vanguard.com/  Sheridan Titman on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/sheridan-titman-226b0811/  Alex Chinko — https://alexchinco.com/  Erik Stafford | Harvard Business School — https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=6625  Itzhak (Zahi) Ben-David on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/ibendavi/  Bill Ackman on X — https://x.com/billackman   ‘Millennium Loses $900 Million on Strategy Roiled by Market Chaos' — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-08/millennium-loses-900-million-on-strategy-roiled-by-market-chaos   Bogleheads — https://www.bogleheads.org/   The Money Scope Podcast Episode 8: Canadian Investment Accounts — https://moneyscope.ca/2024/03/01/episode-8-canadian-investment-accounts/  The Wealthy Barber Podcast — https://thewealthybarber.com/podcast/   Financial Advisor Success Podcast — https://www.kitces.com/blog/category/21-financial-advisor-success-podcast/  Financial Advisor Success Podcast Episode 433: When You 10X Your Advisory Firm To Over $20M Of Revenue…And Want To 10X Again, With Cameron Passmore — https://www.kitces.com/blog/cameron-passmore-pwl-capital-10x-revenue-growth-advisory-firm/   OneDigital — https://www.onedigital.com/  The Longview Podcast: Ben Felix   Papers From Today's Episode:    ‘The Arithmetic of Active Management' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/4479386    ‘Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition: Do Index Funds Incur Adverse Selection Costs?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5080459     ‘Luck versus Skill in the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Returns' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1356021    ‘The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4188052    ‘Long-Term Returns on the Original S&P 500 Companies' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247884354_Long-Term_Returns_on_the_Original_SP_500_Companies     ‘The Price of Immediacy' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1001762   ‘Competition for Attention in the ETF Space' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3765063    ‘Passive in Name Only: Delegated Management and “Index” Investing' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3244991      Jeremy Stein — “Unanchored” Strategy

Our guest on the podcast today is David Booth. He's the Chairman of Dimensional Fund Advisors, a firm he founded in 1981. David led Dimensional as CEO and later Co-CEO until 2017, when he stepped back from the daily management of the firm. David helped create one of the world's first index funds in the 1970s and launched the first passively managed small-company strategy in the early 1980s. He received a bachelor's degree in economics in 1968 and a master's degree in business in 1969 from the University of Kansas. In 1971, he received an MBA from the University of Chicago. Over the years, David has been a benefactor to both schools, and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business is named in David's honor. David, welcome to The Long View.BackgroundBioTune Out the NoiseDFA US Small CapDFA US Micro CapPapers Mentioned“Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation: Year-by-Year Historical Returns (1926-1974),” by Roger Ibbotson and Rex Siquefield, The Journal of Business, January 1976.“The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns,” by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, jstor.org, June 1992.“Why Investors Missed Out on 15% of Total Fund Returns,” by Jeffrey Ptak, Morningstar.com, Aug. 15, 2024.OtherErrol MorrisMerton MillerEugene FamaMac McQuownRex SinquefieldRobert MertonDan WheelerDaniel Kahneman“Everything You Need to Know About ‘MADOFF: The Monster of Wall Street,'” by Ingrid Ostby, netflix.com, Jan. 4, 2023.“DFA vs. Vanguard,” The Rational Reminder podcast, Episode 351, youtube.com.“PHOTOS: A Look Inside the Booth Estate,” Austin American-Statesman, Feb. 13, 2020.

Jon Hartley and Eugene Fama discuss Gene's career at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business since the 1960s and helping to start Dimensional Fund Advisers (DFA) in the 1980s, fat tails, the rise of modern portfolio theory, efficient markets versus behavioral finance, factor-based investing, the role of intermediaries, and whether asset prices are elastic versus inelastic with respect to demand. Recorded on March 14, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Eugene F. Fama, 2013 Nobel laureate in economic sciences, is widely recognized as the "father of modern finance." His research is well-known in both the academic and investment communities. He is strongly identified with research on markets, particularly the efficient markets hypothesis. He focuses much of his research on the relation between risk and expected return and its implications for portfolio management. His work has transformed the way finance is viewed and conducted. Fama is a prolific author, having written two books and published more than 100 articles in academic journals. He is among the most cited researchers in economics. In addition to the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, Fama was the first elected fellow of the American Finance Association in 2001. He is also a fellow of the Econometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He was the first recipient of three major prizes in finance: the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics (2005), the Morgan Stanley American Finance Association Award for Excellence in Finance (2007), and the Onassis Prize in Finance (2009). Other awards include the 1982 Chaire Francqui (Belgian National Science Prize), the 2006 Nicholas Molodovsky Award from the CFA Institute recognizing his work in portfolio theory and asset pricing, and the 2007 Fred Arditti Innovation Award given by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Center for Innovation. He was awarded doctor of law degrees by the University of Rochester and DePaul University, a doctor honoris causa by the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium, and a doctor of science honoris causa by Tufts University. Fama earned a bachelor's degree from Tufts University in 1960, followed by an MBA and PhD from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business (now the Booth School) in 1964. He joined the GSB faculty in 1963. Fama is a father of four and a grandfather of ten. He is an avid golfer, an opera buff, and a former windsurfer and tennis player. He is a member of Malden Catholic High School's athletic hall of fame. Jon Hartley is currently a Policy Fellow at the Hoover Institution, an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center. Jon also is the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast, an official podcast of the Hoover Institution, a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and the chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a Fixed Income Portfolio Construction and Risk Management Associate and as a Quantitative Investment Strategies Client Portfolio Management Senior Analyst and in various policy/governmental roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information, visit: capitalismandfreedom.substack.com/

Eugene Fama, ganhador do Prêmio Nobel de Economia em 2013, expressou recentemente suas preocupações sobre o futuro do Bitcoin. Segundo o renomado economista, o Bitcoin irá colapsar durante os próximos 10 anos. Dov confere os argumentos do laureado para entender se precisa pedir perdão para a sua gerente pelo que fez no restaurante quando o BTC bateu U$ 100 mil e tentar recuperar o seu velho trabalho na chapa do Méqui.Artigo que faz as pessoas perderem dinheirohttp://br.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/colapso-do-bitcoin-ganhador-do-nobel-alerta--em-10-anos-tudo-tera-acabado-1456442Por que economistas renomados não engolem o Bitcoin?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtava0GGzyUPor que Faria Limers rejeitam o Bitcoin?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwayLmcZ44gPlaylist de Mineração de Bitcoinhttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgcVYwONyxmhCa2UyInvbHashrate do Bitcoinhttps://mempool.space/pt/graphs/mining/hashrate-difficulty#allGravado no bloco 883023________________APOIE O CANALhttps://bitcoinheiros.com/apoie/⚡ln@pay.bitcoinheiros.comPara agendar uma CONSULTA PRIVADA com o Dov: https://consultorio.bitcoinheiros.com/Consulta pública: https://ask.arata.se/bitdov00:00 Introdução01:38 Artigo Colapso do bitcoin: ganhador do Nobel alerta em 10 anos tudo terá acabado03:07 Cuidado com opiniões de premiados Nobel05:12 Eugene Fama "bitcoin não valerá nada em uma década"05:38 O que é a hipótese da eficiência de preços?09:14 Bitcoin não é uma moeda, é um ativo especulativo15:13 A volatilidade impede o uso do bitcoin como dinheiro?19:56 O bitcoin enfrenta desafios estruturais?23:09 Playlist sobre mineração de bitcoin dos Bitcoinheiros23:47 Projeção de Fama: O bitcoin será irrelevante até 203526:07 O Bitcoin não precisa dos governos27:26 A visão de Fama: a lógica dos mercados financeiros29:52 A mineração de Bitcoin salva vidas31:24 Regulamentação governamental pode atrapalhar o Bitcoin?33:17 Como perder uma fortuna com apenas um clique?Escute no Fountain Podcasts (https://fountain.fm/join-fountain)para receber e enviar satoshinhos no modelo Value4ValueSIGA OS BITCOINHEIROS:Site: https://www.bitcoinheiros.comTwitter: https://www.twitter.com/bitcoinheirosAllan - https://www.twitter.com/allanraicherDov - https://twitter.com/bitdovBecas - https://twitter.com/bksbk6Ivan - https://twitter.com/bitofsilenceInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/bitcoinheirosFacebook: https://www.fb.com/bitcoinheirosPodcast: https://anchor.fm/bitcoinheirosMedium: https://medium.com/@bitcoinheirosCOMO GUARDAR SEUS BITCOINS?Bitcoinheiros recomendam o uso de carteiras Multisig com Hardware Wallets de diferentes fabricantes ou próprias.Para ver as carteiras de hardware que recomendamos, acesse https://www.bitcoinheiros.com/carteirasVeja os descontos e clique nos links de afiliados para ajudar o canalPor exemplo, para a COLDCARD - https://store.coinkite.com/promo/bitcoinheirosCom o código "bitcoinheiros" você ganha 5% de desconto na ColdCardPlaylist "Canivete Suíço Bitcoinheiro"https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgcVYwONyxmg-KH5bwzMU4sdyMbVMPqwbPlaylist "Carteiras Multisig de Bitcoin"https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgcVYwONyxmi74PiIUSnGieNIPqmtmdjWISENÇÃO DE RESPONSABILIDADE:Este conteúdo foi preparado para fins meramente informativos.NÃO é uma recomendação financeira nem de investimento.As opiniões apresentadas são apenas opiniões.Faça sua própria pesquisa.Não nos responsabilizamos por qualquer decisão de investimento que você tomar ou ação que você executar inspirada em nossos vídeos.P.S. para os buscadoresSomos bitcoinheiros, não bitconheiros, nem bitconheros, bitcoinheros, biticonheiros, biticonheros ou biticoinheros.O Dov é bitcoinheiro, não bitconheiro, nem bitconhero, bitcoinhero, biticonheiro, biticonhero ou biticoinhero.É Bitcoin, não Bitcon e nem Biticoin :)

In December 2024, Bitcoin, one of the earliest cryptocurrencies and undoubtedly the most famous, hit $2 trillion in market capitalization, bigger than Tesla, Meta, and Saudi Aramco. In this episode, Nobel Prize-winning economist and Chicago Booth finance professor Eugene Fama—widely considered the “Father of Modern Finance”—predicts it will go to zero within ten years.Legendary investor Ray Dalio called crypto a bubble a decade ago; now, he calls it “one hell of an invention.” Larry Fink of BlackRock previously referred to Bitcoin as an index of money laundering. Today, he sees it as “a legitimate financial instrument.” Less than 36 hours after launching his own cryptocurrency before his second inauguration, United States President Donald Trump appeared to have made more than $50 billion on paper for himself and his companies. (During his first term, Trump called crypto “not money, whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.”) Amidst this noise of crypto doubters changing tune, Fama joins Bethany and Luigi to discuss why he remains dubious about Bitcoin's ambitions.Bitcoin uses more electricity than many countries—around 91 terawatt-hours annually. Is this amount unsustainable? What makes its value so volatile, and what are the implications for the banking sector and our economy? If cryptocurrencies' purpose is a reaction to an underlying distrust in financial institutions, can decentralized blockchain, the technological ledger that enables anonymous crypto exchange, fix it? Last but not least, why do supporters of a decentralized service, whose value lies in its existence outside traditional government structures, need to spend billions in lobbying to convince politicians, including the president, of its utility?Show Notes:Read ProMarket's archives on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.Revisit our prior Capitalisn't episode with author Zeke Faux, The Capitalisn't of Crypto: SBF and Beyond.

Eugene Fama è considerato il padre della finanza moderna ha ricevuto il Premio Nobel per l'Economia nel 2013. In quest'intervista abbiamo parlato dell'attuale efficienza dei mercati, di fattori di rischio, di investimento passivo e tanto altro ancora. Acquista il mio libro, Sei già ricco ma non lo sai Seguiteci anche su Instagram! =============================================== Investi con Scalable in azioni e ETF a prezzi imbattibili. Migliaia di audiolibri riassunti in 15 minuti con 4Books. L'Assicurazione sulla Vita semplice e conveniente: Turtleneck. I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: nessun contenuto di questo podcast deve essere inteso come una raccomandazione di investimento. La citazione di determinati ETF è a mero scopo esemplificativo e non deve essere intesa in alcun modo come una sollecitazione all'acquisto di specifici prodotti finanziari. L'autore non è un consulente finanziario e non intende presentarsi come tale. Investire comporta dei rischi. Affidatevi sempre a dei professionisti e/o assicuratevi sempre di aver compreso pienamente il funzionamento, le implicazioni e i rischi di ciascun prodotto finanziario prima di investirvi del denaro. L'autore non è inoltre affiliato ad alcuna società emittente di prodotti di investimento. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Eugene Fama is considered the father of modern finance and was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013. In this interview we have discussed about today's market efficiency, factors' premiums, passive investing and much more. Acquista il mio libro, Sei già ricco ma non lo sai Seguiteci anche su Instagram! =============================================== Investi con Scalable in azioni e ETF a prezzi imbattibili. Migliaia di audiolibri riassunti in 15 minuti con 4Books. L'Assicurazione sulla Vita semplice e conveniente: Turtleneck. I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: nessun contenuto di questo podcast deve essere inteso come una raccomandazione di investimento. La citazione di determinati ETF è a mero scopo esemplificativo e non deve essere intesa in alcun modo come una sollecitazione all'acquisto di specifici prodotti finanziari. L'autore non è un consulente finanziario e non intende presentarsi come tale. Investire comporta dei rischi. Affidatevi sempre a dei professionisti e/o assicuratevi sempre di aver compreso pienamente il funzionamento, le implicazioni e i rischi di ciascun prodotto finanziario prima di investirvi del denaro. L'autore non è inoltre affiliato ad alcuna società emittente di prodotti di investimento. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In today's episode, Cameron sits down with Mark McGrath to talk about his trip to Trondheim, Norway, the event he attended there, and his presentation in which he shared top lessons from prestigious Rational Reminder Podcast guests. Tuning in, you'll hear Cameron's top takeaways from conversations with Nobel laureate Eugene Fama and his collaborator Kenneth French, as well as Robert Merton, Antti Ilmanen, Professor Ludovic Phalippou, and more. We also delve into the changing industry trends regarding index investing and the many benefits that come with embracing it, including how it helps financial advisors better serve their clients. Stay tuned for our after-show section, where we discuss advice for new advisors, from developing a robust investment philosophy to building a network, along with insights to help consumers navigate the industry and much more. To learn all about Cameron's trip to Norway, top guest takeaways, and industry trends around index investing, be sure to tune in!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:01:13) An overview of today's episode and a discussion on industry trends. (0:03:56) Our conversation with Håkon Kavli on managing Reitan Kapital. (0:04:38) What it was like for Cameron to meet Håkon Kavli and Magnus Reitan in Norway. (0:05:42) The excellent event in Trondheim, Norway, and their impressive lineup of speakers. (0:08:56) Unpacking industry trends in index investing and why more people are embracing it. (0:09:42) The light bulb moment for Mark and Cameron regarding index investing. (0:19:07) Highlights from our interviews with Eugene Fama, Ken French, and Robert Merton. (0:25:28) Dr. Annamaria Lusardi's insights and takeaways from our John Cochrane interview. (0:29:05) Top lessons from our conversation with Antti Ilmanen on low-expected returns. (0:30:58) Insights from talking with Professor Ludovic Phalippou about private equity. (0:32:22) Closing thoughts on Cameron's presentation in Norway and index investing trends. (0:39:44) Our aftershow segment: advice for new advisors, ways the industry has changed, tips for consumers, technology insights, personal updates, and more.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Episode 321: Evidence in Practice with Håkon Kavli – https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/321 Professor Marcos López de Prado — https://www.orie.cornell.edu/faculty-directory/marcos-lopez-de-prado Erik Hilde — https://www.linkedin.com/in/erik-hilde-9570a785/?originalSubdomain=no Dan Bortolotti — https://www.canadianmoneysaver.ca/authors/dan-bortolotti Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/ Justin Bender — https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-bender-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-tep-195b8b27/?originalSubdomain=ca Episode 200: Prof. Eugene Fama — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/200 Tune Out the Noise — https://www.dimensional.com/film Episode 100: Prof. Kenneth French — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/100 Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234 Episode 232: Dr. Annamaria Lusardi — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/232 Episode 169: Prof. John Cochrane — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/169 Episode 202: Antti Ilmanen – https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/202 Episode 210: Prof. Ludovic Phalippou — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/210 Fama and French Three Factor Model — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/famaandfrenchthreefactormodel.asp Books From Today's Episode: Investing Amid Low Expected Returns — http://www.aqr.com/serenity The Empowered Investor — https://www.amazon.ca/Empowered-Investor-Canadian-Investment-Experience/dp/0991978307  

Today's guest is Marlena Lee. Marlena is Dimensional Fund Advisor's (DFA) Global Head of Investment Solutions, leading a team focused on investment thought leadership and client education. She is also a member of DFA's Investment Research Committee.    Founded in 1981, DFA is a global asset management firm with ~$800B in assets under management, known for successfully applying academic research to practical investing.   Prior to her time at DFA, Marlena served as Co-Head of Research, directing the firm's global research agenda. Marlena was a teaching assistant for Nobel laureate Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. She holds a PhD and MBA from Chicago Booth, an MS in agricultural and resource economics, and a BS in managerial economics from UC Davis. (ChatGPT generated Bio)   In this episode, we start by covering Marlena's academic journey as a TA with Nobel Laureate Professor Gene Fama at the University of Chicago. We pivot to the investment side with a discussion about the Magnificent 7 and what is driving US market performance, an update on factor investing, a brief history of Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), small c(r)ap investing, the use of Russell 2000 as a benchmark and the dwindling number of public names in US markets.    Today's hosts are Steve Curley, CFA (Founder, 55 North Private Wealth) & co-host Christina Shaffer, CFA (Director of Fixed Income, AllGen Financial)   Please enjoy the episode. You can follow us on Twitter & LinkedIn or at investorsfirstpodcast.com   Show Notes: https://www.dimensional.com https://www.dimensional.com/hk-en/bios/marlena-lee  

In this episode, I'm joined by Marlena Lee from Dimensional Fund Advisors for a deep dive into evaluating investment fads and how to build better portfolios. We also explore the importance of global diversification and why certain investments may not belong in your long-term strategy.   Listen now and learn: A framework for evaluating whether an investment fad deserves a place in your portfolio. The truth about private investments and why gold or crypto might not be the hedges you think they are. Why past performance and company size don't always indicate future returns.   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   [0:40] Eugene Fama's Contributions to Finance [6:39] Evaluating Investment Fads  [11:10] Scarcity, Growth Stocks, and Extrapolating Returns   [14:13] The Importance of Global Diversification   [29:46] Gold and Cryptocurrencies as Investments   [36:36] Hedge Funds and Private Investments   

Naviga in totale sicurezza con NordVPN (#ad). Cercare di capire i mercati e le sue dinamiche non serve per prevedere il futuro e indovinare trade vincenti, ma per prepararsi al futuro con una migliore gestione del rischio complessivo del nostro portafoglio. In uscita il libro di The Bull! Sei già ricco ma non lo sai (disponibile a questo link) Intervista a Eugene Fama sul Financial Times Seguiteci anche su Instagram! =============================================== Investi con Scalable in ETF e Azioni a costi imbattibili. L'Assicurazione sulla Vita semplice e conveniente: Turtleneck. Migliaia di audiolibri riassunti in 15 minuti con 4Books, 7 giorni di prova gratuita e 30% di sconto. Ottieni le migliori tariffe per Luce, Gas, Internet e Cellulare con Switcho. I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: nessun contenuto di questo podcast deve essere inteso come una raccomandazione di investimento. La citazione di determinati ETF è a mero scopo esemplificativo e non deve essere intesa in alcun modo come una sollecitazione all'acquisto di specifici prodotti finanziari. L'autore non è un consulente finanziario e non intende presentarsi come tale. Investire comporta dei rischi. Affidatevi sempre a dei professionisti e/o assicuratevi sempre di aver compreso pienamente il funzionamento, le implicazioni e i rischi di ciascun prodotto finanziario prima di investirvi del denaro. L'autore non è inoltre collegato ad alcuna società emittente di prodotti di investimento. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do you balance rigorous research with open-mindedness in investing? How do you communicate effectively with clients during volatile times?This week, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Cliff Asness, Managing and Founding Principal at AQR Capital Management, for an insightful discussion on market strategies and the nuances of value investing. Cliff shares his thoughts on the current state of value investing, explores the concept of 'value spread,' and even dips into some fun side topics.They discuss: The current state of value investing and why it has seen challenging periodsInsights into how AQR navigates market anomaliesThe importance of communication and transparency with clientsFun personal insights into Cliff's interests outside of finance, from hot sauce to superhero moviesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Cliff Asness: LinkedIn: Cliff AsnessX: Cliff AsnessWebsite: AQR Capital ManagementConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest: Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher and has authored articles on a variety of financial topics for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. He has received five Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards from The Journal of Portfolio Management in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2014, and 2015. Financial Analysts Journal has twice awarded him the Graham and Dodd Award for the year's best paper, as well as a Graham and Dodd Excellence Award, the award for the best perspectives piece, and the Graham and Dodd Readers' Choice Award. He has won the second prize of the Fama/DFA Prize for Capital Markets and Asset Pricing in the 2020 Journal of Financial Economics. In 2006, the CFA Institute presented Cliff with the James R. Vertin Award, which is periodically given to individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals. Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs & Co. He is on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management, the governing board of the Courant Institute of Mathematical Finance at NYU, the board of directors of the Q-Group, the board of the International Rescue Committee and the board of trustees of The National WWII Museum. Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in both. He received an M.B.A. with high honors and a Ph.D. in finance from the University of Chicago, where he was Eugene Fama's student and teaching assistant for two years.

In this episode, we explore two pivotal investment factors: size and value. Small-cap stocks, likened to hidden treasures, offer potential for substantial returns despite higher volatility. Conversely, value investing, inspired by Benjamin Graham's wisdom, involves identifying stocks trading below their intrinsic worth for long-term gains. Discover how these strategies, validated by pioneers like Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, can complement your investment approach. Learn to leverage these tools alongside other considerations to craft a robust investment portfolio and uncover opportunities in the dynamic stock market landscape.Speaker - Shikha Sood, Head - Products 

In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 1: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds.LEARNING: Look for key metrics, traits, or characteristics that help them identify stocks that will outperform the market. “Intelligent people maintain open minds when it comes to new ideas. And they change strategies when there is compelling evidence demonstrating the ‘conventional wisdom' is wrong.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories Larry has developed over the 30+ years he's been trying to help investors. Larry is the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 1: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds.Chapter 1: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and BondsIn this chapter, Larry looks at research that revolutionized how people think about investing and how to build a winning portfolio. The goal is to help investors learn how to look for key metrics, traits, or characteristics that help them identify stocks that will outperform the market, at least in terms of delivering higher returns, not necessarily higher risk-adjusted returns.The three-factor modelThe first research Larry talks about is by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French. Their paper “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns” in The Journal of Finance focused on research that produced what has become known as the three-factor model. A factor is a common trait or characteristic of a stock or bond. The three factors explained by Fama and French are:Market beta (the return of the market minus the return on one-month Treasury bills)Size (the return on small stocks minus the return on large stocks)Value (the return on value stocks minus the return on growth stocks).The model can explain more than 90% of the variation of returns of diversified US equity portfolios. The research shows that ensemble funds are superior to individual funds. It's better to have a multi-factor portfolio. So you could own, say, five different funds that have exposure to each individual factor, or you own one fund that gives you exposure to all those factors. The ensemble strategies always tend to do better.The two-factor modelLarry also highlights a second model by professors Fama and French, the two-factor model that explains the variation of returns of fixed-income portfolios. The two risk factors are term and default (credit risk). According to the model, the longer the term to maturity, the greater the risk; the lower the credit rating, the greater the risk. Markets compensate investors for taking risks with higher expected returns. As with equities, individual security selection and market timing do not play a significant role in explaining returns of fixed-income portfolios and thus should not be expected to add value.Buffett's AlphaAnother significant academic research publication is the study “Buffett's Alpha.” The authors, Andrea...

Cliff Asness is the Founder and CIO at AQR, an investment management firm at the intersection of financial theory and practice that oversees $100 billion in assets. He is famously intelligent, comical, and irreverent, all wrapped into one. Our conversation covers Cliff's journey from studying market efficiency under Eugene Fama to capitalizing on market inefficiencies at AQR. We discuss regime changes in factors, difficult periods for performance and AQR's business, research innovation, machine learning, index funds, pod shops, areas of cognitive dissonance, private equity, and serving on investment committees. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership

Academic research can seem inaccessible for many investors. But behind all the complicated concepts and formulas are usually some simple core lessons that all investors can benefit from. In this episode, we are joined by Alpha Architect's Jess Bost to help us pull those core lessons out of the work of Eugene Fama and Ken French. We discuss ten timeless lessons investors can take from their research and look at some simple examples that make them easy to understand. We also look at what it all means for investors from both a portfolio construction and financial planning perspective. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/financial-planning-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sunpointeinvestments.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW MATT Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/cultishcreative⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator's perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey's specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harvey's website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harvey's Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" (18:39) VanEck Ad (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.

La mayor revolución financiera de los últimos años tiene su origen en eventos aparentemente desconectados, como una maleta Samsonite, un anuncio censurado de Merill Lynch, una apuesta de 1 millón de dólares de Warren Buffett y el proyecto "Manhattan" de las finanzas. Esta revolución ha dado lugar a gigantes financieros como Vanguard y BlackRock, que gestionan más de 15 billones de dólares.

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.* Ohtani Contract* Liv Golf* Jerome Powell FOMC meeting recap* Market Update* Canadian Mortgages* Recommendations and LinksListen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.Market Update

The pension fund managers are scrambling to make excuses on why when the market is up 50% this year, they're performance does not even come close. Of course Eugene Fama won the Nobel Prize in Economics explaining why. I wrote about Fama in my Financial Times columns and books many times, well before he got the Prize. In this webinar I show you the problem and more importantly, the solution with stocks I like now. Join My Private Great Investments Programme ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.alpeshpatel.com/shares⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Risk warning: None of this is individual advice and all investing is risky This is part of my ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.campaignforamillion.com ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠to teach a million people to be better investors and make an extra million in their pensions as a result across their lifetimes. Follow me on LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://lnkd.in/e9FFsybJ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow my YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJeyFshCmwND6-aY3pSs3Q⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ------------------------------------------------------------------ RESOURCES & LINKS ------------------------------------------------------------------ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.pipspredator.com ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.investing-champions.com ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.trading-champions.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #tradingonline #investing #trading #pipspredator #alpeshpatel #business Subscribe to my newsletter for more tips:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.alpeshpatel.com/blogsignup ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to my Telegram channel for daily market information: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://t.me/pipspredator ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow me on my LinkedIn Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/alpeshbpatel/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join my Facebook community: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/tradefx4profit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow more free resources including my book from ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.investing-champions.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.alpeshpatel.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ My daily insights are on my instant messenger app - also free. Alpesh Patel OBE

Erfahre in diesem Coffee Break mehr über die wegweisenden Arbeiten zweier herausragender Wissenschaftler und wie diese den Anlageansatz von True Wealth massgeblich geprägt haben. Kurzfristige Renditen sind unberechenbar! Eugene Fama, ein Pionier in der Wirtschaftswissenschaft, fand in den 1960er Jahren heraus, dass kurzfristige Aktienrenditen schwer vorhersehbar sind. Informationen, die den Aktienmarkt beeinflussen, werden sofort in den Aktienpreis eingearbeitet. Eugene Fama erhielt 2013 den Nobelpreis für diese bahnbrechenden Erkenntnisse! Das Verhältnis von Risiko und Rendite! William Sharpe, ein weiterer brillanter Forscher aus den 1960er Jahren, zeigte, dass erwartete Renditen eng mit dem Risiko zusammenhängen. Es gibt zwei Arten von Risiken: unsystematisches und systematisches Risiko. Unsystematisches Risiko betrifft einzelne Unternehmen, während systematisches Risiko den gesamten Aktienmarkt betrifft. Die Erkenntnis, dass Renditen hauptsächlich mit systematischem Risiko korrelieren, brachte William Sharpe 1990 den Nobelpreis ein! Tauche ein in die Welt der passiven Anlagestrategie und erfahre mehr über unseren Investmentansatz bei True Wealth.   Über True Wealth True Wealth AG ist die führende digitale Vermögensverwaltungsplattform mit Sitz in Zürich, Schweiz. Wir bieten transparente und kosteneffiziente Anlagestrategien für Privatanleger mit Wohnsitz in der Schweiz, die eine moderne digitale Vermögensverwaltungslösung suchen. Säule 3a inbegriffen mit 0% Verwaltungsgebühr. Jetzt mehr erfahren.

Steve Keen joins Bob to commiserate on the poverty of Paul Krugman, and to make the case for Hyman Minksy. An all around fun, informative conversation.Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest:The YouTube version of this interview.Steve Keen's substack and Patreon.Steve Keen's Debunking Economics podcast.Gene Callahan and Bob Murphy review of Keen's Debunking Economics.Bob's article on Paul Samuelson's "A Summing Up" (from the Cambridge Capital Controversy).Bob's article on Eugene Fama on the housing bubble.Bob's critique of Nordhaus' DICE model.Help support the Bob Murphy Show.

In this episode, we are trying something different. Recorded live at the CFA Society's Toronto Annual Wealth Conference, we take an exclusive look at the origins and evolution of the Rational Reminder Podcast through an interview with Ben and Cameron. From motivations for starting the podcast to favourite episodes and guests, we delve into the behind-the-scenes of the show. Discover how the podcast has grown, the impact it's had on listeners, and the exciting global reach it's achieved. Get an exclusive look at the challenges, regrets, and valuable lessons learned along the way. Then, we are joined by Mark McGrath to explore common pitfalls of ITF accounts, providing listeners with valuable information to help them make the right decisions for their investments. Finally, we welcome special guest Brittany Hodak, author of Creating Superfans, which unpacks the concept of turning customers into passionate fans of your brand. Brittany shares her insights on the power of storytelling in business and how to create Superfans who will champion your brand. We explore the concept of the experience economy, the right approach to investing in marketing for your business, and much more! Join us for this extraordinary episode that blends wealth management insights, podcasting wisdom, and the secrets to cultivating Superfans. Whether you're a long-time Rational Reminder listener or a business owner seeking to supercharge customer loyalty, this episode has something for everyone. Tune in now!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:04:32) Introduction to Ben and Cameron's interview at the 2023 Annual Wealth Conference.  (0:07:15) Learn about the average listener base for the show, the active Rational Reminder community, and how the podcast has grown over time.  (0:10:08) The global reach of the podcast, how it has benefitted business, and a look back at the first episode of Rational Reminder.  (0:13:19) What Ben and Cameron originally envisioned, how they met, and what motivated them to start a podcast.  (0:15:17) Insights into the cost of the show, the shift from audio only, and the appetite for long-form content.  (0:18:18) Their favourite episodes and guests, keeping content balanced, and how the reading challenge was started.  (0:25:25) Attracting big industry names to the podcast, their dream guests, and the episodes that did not go to plan.  (0:31:28) Advice for aspiring podcasters, the amount of work the show takes, and their biggest lessons so far.  (0:37:02) Ben and Cameron share their reading habits and the books they think everyone should read and why.  (0:40:14) Why they work so well together, plans for the future, and what they wish they knew before starting the podcast.  (0:43:14) Ben and Cameron each share their definition of success, and final words of advice for listeners.  (0:45:46) Mark to Market: exploring the ins and outs of ITF accounts to avoid common mistakes. (0:55:04) Introducing today's guest, Brittany Hodak, and her fascinating book, Superfans.  (0:56:51) Brittany explains some basic definitions and the power of storytelling for your business.  (0:59:50) Why storytelling has become a potent marketing technique, and why Superfans are important to building a successful business.  (1:02:53) Unpacking the Superfan personality, how they can be created, and identifying your customer's story.  (1:08:47) Defining the experience economy and its impact on customer expectations.  (1:12:38) Recommendations for how businesses should approach investing in marketing.  (1:14:11) The after-show: trip highlights, listener reviews, and more!    Books From Today's Episode: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level — https://www.amazon.com/Fiscal-Theory-Price-Level/dp/0691242240 How to Change — https://www.amazon.com/How-Change-Science-Getting-Where/dp/059308375X Get It Done — https://www.amazon.com/Get-Done-Surprising-Lessons-Motivation/dp/0316538361/ Your Future Self — https://www.amazon.com/Your-Future-Self-Tomorrow-Better/dp/B0BJ554T6M/ Like the Best Podcast — https://open.spotify.com/show/22fi0RqfoBACCuQDv97wFO Deep Work — https://www.amazon.com/Deep-Work-Focused-Success-Distracted/dp/1455586692 Storyworthy — https://www.amazon.com/Storyworthy-Engage-Persuade-through-Storytelling/dp/1608685489 Financial Market History — https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Market-History-Reflections-Investors-ebook/dp/B06WVBHK72/ The Great Depression: A Diary — https://www.amazon.com/The-Great-Depression-audiobook/dp/B0030HF9F6/ Using Behavioral Science in Marketing — https://www.amazon.com/Using-Behavioral-Science-Marketing-Instinctive/dp/1398606685/ Clear Thinking — https://www.amazon.com/Clear-Thinking/dp/0593716213   Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on X - https://twitter.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Mark McGrath on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Brittany Hodak — https://brittanyhodak.com/ Brittany Hodak on X — https://twitter.com/BrittanyHodak Brittany Hodak on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/brittanyhodak/ Brittany Hodak on Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/BrittanyHodak Brittany Hodak on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/brittanyhodak/ Creating Superfans — https://www.amazon.com/Creating-Superfans-Five-Step-Multiplying-Reputation/dp/1774580780 Annual Wealth Conference 2023 — https://web.cvent.com/event/874a7379-a0cb-4b91-ad18-c46daf17b685/summary Rational Reminder Episode 1: The Cheapest Advice Probably isn't the Best — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/1 Rational Reminder Episode 100: Prof. Kenneth French — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/100 Rational Reminder Episode 169: Prof. John Cochrane — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/169 Rational Reminder Episode 171: Prof. Campbell R. Harvey — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/171 Rational Reminder Episode 200: Prof. Eugene Fama — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/200 Rational Reminder Episode 224: Prof. Scott Cederburg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224 Rational Reminder Episode 226: Colonel Chris Hadfield — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/226 Rational Reminder Episode 268: Itzhak Ben-David — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/268 Rational Reminder Episode 271: Expected Returns of the AI Revolution (plus People are Lying to You About Money w/ Anthony Walsh) — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/271

There is risk involved in trying to time markets. We believe it's best to apply multiple decades of research when making investment decisions. Today we are joined by Symmetry's Dr. John B. McDermott, Executive Director of Investments, to conclude our discussion about Evidence-Based investing. This episode will feature a detailed overview of the resources available to investors (who are curious to learn more) and the academic professionals who have helped to develop this investment strategy over decades of time. If you have any questions or would like more information, reach out to us at https://symmetrypartners.com/contact-us/ You can also find us on LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram. As always, we remain invested in your goals. Symmetry Partners, LLC, is an investment advisory firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. No one should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, product or non-investment related content made reference to directly or indirectly in this material will be profitable. As with any investment strategy, there is the possibility of profitability as well as loss. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may not be reflective of current opinions or positions.   Please note the material is provided for educational and background use only. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this material serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice. 

I enjoy random walks as much as any econ PhD out of the University of Chicago, but how am I supposed to handle the inability to control my Shatterpoint deck and dice variance?!?!?! (Like many of you, I am also still reeling from Fama sharing the Nobel Prize with Hansen and Shiller. What a wild world we live in.) In this episode, Matt leads a discussion as to how to think about randomness in Shatterpoint, how luck and skill are not mutually exclusive (thanks Richard Garfield), and how to leverage and enjoy both in your gaming. We focus on how Obi-Wan is an exemplary piece in smoothing out randomness in crucial aspects of your matches, but also how randomness can be skill-testing in a way that is extremely satisfying. You will enjoy this discussion. Here's a link to Richard Garfield's lecture on Skill vs. Luck in games. Join the Slack!!!

In this week's episode, Patrick and Kevin welcome the founder of Alpha Architect, Wes Gray to the show to talk about his unusual career path, what it was like studying under Dr. Eugene Fama and explore his fascinating new product – the BOX ETF. *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Hi everyone. We're taking the week off for the 4th of July holiday, but we wanted to use this week's episode to honor Nobel Prize-winning economist Harry Markowitz, who recently passed away at the age of 95. Professor Markowitz is a giant of finance, someone who put diversification and Modern Portfolio Theory on the map, with his research transforming the way we allocate and invest our assets. While we didn't have the opportunity to interview Professor Markowitz for the podcast, we were able to chat recently with someone who had interviewed him: author and financial researcher Dr. Andrew Lo. Dr. Lo recently published a book titled “In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio,” in which he profiled some of the leading figures in academic research and finance. None stood taller than Professor Markowitz, whom Dr. Lo discusses at length in this interview we aired in February of 2022. We think you'll enjoy it. Thanks so much for listening and see you in a week. Have a happy holiday.Our guest this week is Dr. Andrew Lo. Dr. Lo is the Charles E. & Susan T. Harris Professor, a professor of finance, and the director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His current research spans five areas, including evolutionary models of investor behavior and adaptive markets, systemic risk, and financial regulation, among others. Dr. Lo has published extensively in academic journals and authored a number of books including In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, which he cowrote with Stephen Foerster. He has received numerous awards for his work and contributions to modern finance research throughout his career. He holds a bachelor's in economics from Yale University and an AM and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.BackgroundIn Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest, by Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. FoersterAdaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought, by Andrew W. LoHistory"Thirty Maidens of Geneva," the Tontine Coffee-House, thetch.blog.com, Aug. 5, 2019."Why 18th Century Swiss Bankers Bet on the Lives of Young Girls," by Stephen Foerster, sfoerster-5338.medium.com, Sept. 2, 2021.William F. Sharpe"Keynes the Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis," by David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, and Justin Foo, papers.ssrn.com, Sept. 26, 2013.Eugene F. Fama"Algorithmic Models of Investor Behavior," by Andrew Lo and Alexander Remorov, eqderivatives.com, 2021."In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: Eugene Fama," Interview with Andrew Lo and Eugene Fama, youtube.com, Dec. 15, 2016."Why Artificial Intelligence May Not Be as Useful or as Challenging as Artificial Stupidity," by Andrew Lo, hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu, July 1, 2019.Charles D. Ellis"Charley Ellis: Why Active Investing Is Still a Loser's Game," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 27, 2020.Other"7 Principles to Help You Create Your Perfect Portfolio," by Robert Powell, marketwatch.com, Nov. 10, 2021. 

March 1 through March 4, I attended the White Coat Investor Conference (WCICON 2023). On the 2nd, I made a 2 hour presentation focused on "How to Create and Execute a Lifetime Investment Strategy". I was thrilled with the turnout and positive feedback. I also received many questions in the following days. The following are some of the many questions. More to come in the future. It was a wonderful conference. I want to thank Katie and Jim Dahle for putting on one of the best conferences I have ever attended. Here are the questions addressed on this podcast: 3:40 1. Why do value companies make more money than growth companies? The answer includes comments from a 1997 article by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French. Rethinking Stock Returns https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/rethinking-stock-returns 14:55 2. How much small cap value should I add to my target date fund? 19:30 3. How much small cap value should I combine with my Vanguard Total Market Fund? In this article Table B14A is referenced. https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SCV-vs-SP500-Fine-Tuning-Table-2022-v0.2.pdf 22:19 4. What is the difference between the expected long term returns of the S&P 500 (VOO) and the Total Stock Market (VTI)? 25:40 5. There are a lot of different small cap value funds. Which one do you recommend at Vanguard? 28:45 6. Should I put small cap value in my taxable, Roth IRA or 401k? Larry Swedroe's, “Your Complete Guide to a Successful & Secure Retirement” is recommended as a great source of important investment advice. 33:25 7. What do you think of being all equity all the time? I mean for the rest of my life. 38:54 8. I'm 38 and a fairly aggressive investor. I want to build a do it yourself custom target date fund. While I did not mention our custom ETF Allocation Calculator listeners should check it out. https://paulmerriman.com/custom-etf-allocation-calculator/ 45:55 9. You have portfolios that are all small cap value and another that is a combination of small and large cap value. The returns for all small cap value are almost one percent higher. Why not just use an all small cap value portfolio? Sound Investing Quilt Charts 49:30 10. What strategy would you recommend with 5 to 7 years until retirement? More of the WCI questions will be answered in the coming weeks.

Cameron Passmore has been a leading advocate for evidence-based, systemic investing for over 20 years. He is Executive Chairman and Portfolio Manager at Canadian wealth management firm, PWL Capital and co-host of The Rational Reminder Podcast. Cameron's hugely successful podcast has featured some incredible guests from the world of investing and behavioural finance and aims to help make listeners better, more rational investors. His guests include investing research gurus Professor Ken French and Nobel Prize winning Eugene Fama. I loved my conversation with Cameron. Unsurprisingly, we focused on the power of the stock markets, the timeless wisdom of investing in the great companies of the world, and how the  ‘wisdom of crowds' applies to investing behaviour. Cameron shares his definition of evidence-based, systemic investing and some fascinating stories and insights from his many conversations with experts in this field. He also points us towards episodes of his podcast that offer real depth of insight into what makes for a successful investment strategy for your retirement.

Czy ograniczenie się w portfelu TYLKO do akcji amerykańskich to błąd, niewybaczalny grzech? A może wręcz przeciwnie – jest to oznaka dbania o bezpieczeństwo zainwestowanego kapitału?W tym odcinku opowiem o tym jak to widzi sam prof. Eugene Fama, czyli osoba odpowiedzialna za zbudowanie teoretycznych podwalin pasywnego inwestowania. POLECANE MATERIAŁY

Our guest this week is Wes Gray. Wes is the CEO, chief investment officer, and founder of Alpha Architect, a Registered Investment Advisor that offers ETFs and works with other RIAs to launch their own ETFs. An accomplished researcher and writer, Wes has authored numerous books on investing and financial topics, including Quantitative Value and Quantitative Momentum. Before founding Alpha Architect, Wes worked in academia and consulted for a family office. Wes' path into finance began at the University of Chicago, where he earned his MBA and Ph.D. and studied under Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama. Prior to that, Wes served as a captain in the United States Marine Corps. In addition to his MBA and Ph.D., Wes also earned a bachelor's degree in economics from The Wharton School.BackgroundBioTwitter handle: @alphaarchitectAlpha ArchitectQuantitative Momentum: A Practitioner's Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System, by Wesley Gray, Ph.D., and Jack Vogel, Ph.D.Quantitative Value: A Practitioner's Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors, by Wesley Gray, Ph.D., and Tobias Carlisle, LLBActive Investing“Even God Would Get Fired as an Active Investor,” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, Feb. 2, 2016.“Has the Stock Market Systematically Changed?” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, Sept. 20, 2022.“The Cross Section of Stock Returns Pre-CRSP Data: Value and Momentum Are Confirmed as Robust Anomalies,” by Elisabetta Basilico, Ph.D., CFA, alphaarchitect.com, Nov. 7, 2022.Stock Market/Trend-Following“How I Invest My Own Money: Robust to Chaos,” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, June 24, 2022.“Trend Following: The Epitome of No Pain, No Gain,” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, June 26, 2019.“Trend-Following: A Deep Dive Into a Unique Risk Premium,” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, Oct. 18, 2017.“Does Emerging Markets Investing Make Sense?” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, June 17, 2022.Value Investing“Value Investing Live Recap: Wesley Gray,” by Graham Griffin, gurufocus.com, Aug. 25, 2021.“Value Investing: Headwinds, Tailwinds, and Variables,” by Ryan Kirlin, alphaarchitect.com, May 20, 2022.“Value Investing: What History Says About Five-Year Periods After Valuation Peaks,” by Jack Vogel, Ph.D., alphaarchitect.com, Dec. 21, 2021.Behavioral Investing“Terry Odean: Who's on the Other Side of the Trade?” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 14, 2022.“Behavioral Finance Warning: Humans Love Complexity,” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, Aug. 3, 2021.“Individual Investor Behavior: What Does the Research Say?” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, July 22, 2022.“Momentum Investing, Like Value Investing, Is Simple, but Not Easy,” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, Sept. 18, 2018.Bonds and ETF Investing“Treasury Bonds: Buy and Hold, or Trend Follow?” by Wesley Gray, alphaarchitect.com, Aug. 10, 2022.“Why Advisors (and Family Offices) Should Consider Creating Their Own ETFs,” by Pat Cleary, alphaarchitect.com, Nov. 4, 2022.“ETF Tax Efficiency Isn't Always Efficient,” by Sean Hegarty, alpharchitect.com, Feb. 25, 2022.

Today's guest is the legendary Professor Eugene Fama, a 2013 Nobel laureate and widely recognized as the “father of modern finance.” In today's episode, we talk to Professor Fama about whether he thinks the Fed can control inflation, where the phrase efficient markets came from, and his take on the global market portfolio.  As we wind down, we hear the last time he bought an individual stock. ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.com/meb to skip their wait list. Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. This document does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations. To the extent that the reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to their specific portfolio or situation, prospective investors are encouraged to contact Cambria or consult with the professional advisor of their choosing. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by Cambria. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by Cambria or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, Cambria does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Cambria does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. All investments involve risk, including the risk of the loss of all of your invested capital. Please consider carefully the investment objectives, risks, transaction costs, and other expenses related to an investment prior to deciding to invest. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure profit or guarantee against loss. Investment decisions should be based on an individual's own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Masterworks is not registered, licensed, or supervised as a broker dealer or investment adviser by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), or any other financial regulatory authority or licensed to provide any financial advice or services. Source: (2022, September 13). Wall St suffers worst sell-off since June 2020 after inflation data. Financial Times Source: (2022, September 19). Fund managers pitch ‘alts' to retail investors as institutions max out. Financial Times Source: (2022, September 30). Inflation punches Wall Street again, ending knock-down quarter. Reuters Source: (2022, June 24). State of the Art Market: An Analysis of Global Auction Sales in the First Five Months of 2022. Artnet News.

Join Senior Financial Advisors Rob McClelland and Mike Connon as they discuss 5 concepts for successful investing as developed by Professor Ken French from the Tuck School of Business, Head of Investment Policy and board member of Dimensional Fund Advisors working in collaboration with Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics.

Do you feel like you have a good grasp of financial markets? Think again! In this episode, we take a plunge into the world of financial markets with experts Jules van Binsbergen and Jonathan Berk. Jules is a Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Jonathan is a Professor of Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business. They also host a popular podcast called Else Equal, which explores the science and strategy of making better financial decisions, and have written several academic papers that challenge the status quo. In our conversation, we discuss their research on the relationship between manager skill and fund performance, the best ways to measure performance, and reasons why benefits are in favour of the managers. We also explore the dogma surrounding mutual funds, the differences between active and passive management, and how to measure efficient capital markets. Listeners will also hear perspectives that challenge their understanding of capital markets and viewpoints that completely disagree with previous guests. Although we have covered this topic before in previous episodes, this conversation will fundamentally change the way you view financial markets and how to think about them.   Key Points From This Episode:   What information fund performance contains about manager skill. (0:04:04) Reasons why manager skill and performance are unrelated. (0:04:59) We learn how manager skills should be measured. (0:06:57) How to choose the appropriate benchmark to measure value added. (0:09:26) Find out if you can use factor-mimicking portfolios to measure risk-adjusted returns. (0:12:05) Whether funds that directly target risk factors can be used as an investable benchmark. (0:16:35) What the skill of active managers are when skill is measured as value-added. (0:20:52) The proportion of value-added between security selection and market timing. (0:23:20) Discussion about how persistence manifests when it is measured by value-added. (0:25:43) Find out if investors should analyze mutual fund companies as opposed to managers. (0:32:36) Discover why research has focused on individual security pricing and not on evaluating manager skill. (0:34:25) We unpack the reasons why it's a zero net alpha as opposed to a negative net alpha in equilibrium. (0:38:19) We delve into why the research took so long to apply rational expectations to fund investors as with the stock market. (0:42:46) An explanation of how equilibrium zero net alpha fits into Bill Sharpe's arithmetic of active management. (0:48:16) Who benefits from the high amount of skill available within the sector. (0:51:11) Whether the increase in millionaires around the world drives inequality. (0:56:12) Hear if it is possible to identify skilled fund managers before the benefits of their skills are absorbed by fund size. (01:01:41) The implications on efficient market hypothesis for the stock market. (01:05:36) Advice for investors, considering that the benefits of skill are in favour of managers. (01:08:37) Details about their research on how multi-factor asset pricing models are not representative of risk. (01:12:45) We end the show by learning how our guests define success in their lives. (01:19:08)    Links From Today's Episode:   Jules van Binsbergen — https://sites.google.com/view/jules-van-binsbergen/ Jules van Binsbergen on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/jules-van-binsbergen-a7b21a2/ Jules van Binsbergen on Google Scholar — https://scholar.google.com/citations/ Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania — https://www.wharton.upenn.edu/ Jonathan Berk — https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/jonathan-b-berk Jonathan Berk on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-berk-07874a3b/ Jonathan Berk on Google Scholar — https://scholar.google.com/citations/ Stanford Graduate School of Business — https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/ Else Equal: Making Better Decisions — https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/business-podcasts/all-else-equal-making-better-decisions Passive in Name Only — https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage/ The Emperor of All Maladies — https://www.amazon.com/Emperor-All-Maladies-Biography-Cancer/dp/1439170916 Unsettled — https://www.amazon.com/Unsettled-Climate-Science-Doesnt-Matters/dp/1950665798 ‘Episode 200 with Prof. Eugene Fama' — https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9yYXRpb25hbHJlbWluZGVyLmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz/episode/MzA2MjM2OTctOTc5Yy00MDU4LWE3YzMtYTdmMGU4NGQ0Y2Jj?sa=X&ved=0CAIQuIEEahgKEwjI27ng_rH6AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQsQQ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/?hl=en Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/  

In 2013, Eugene Fama won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on the efficient market hypothesis. One of his most significant contributions to investing has come from his collaboration with his colleague Kenneth French and their work in the development of Factor Models for Investing and their contribution to portfolio construction at Dimensional Fund Advisors. Asset allocation models based on a factor-based framework have become incredibly popular in the investment community, and many investors are wondering whether or not they should incorporate factors into their retirement investment framework. Articles, Links & Resources Visit: https://soundretirementplanning.com/ We're on YouTube! Are you DIY?  Be sure to check out the Retirement Budget Calculator LET'S CONNECT: Facebook LinkedIn Website

Can you trade on the market inefficiencies and come out ahead after costs and taxes? The evidence is clear and it isn't good news for the market timers. These market timers are investors and advisors that promise to get out at the top and then get back in at the bottom. It sounds great in theory, but because the public markets are so efficient, the evidence is clear that it isn't possible over the long run. Many investors have poor investment experiences because they try to accomplish the impossible rather than focusing on the things that they can control. Jumping in and out of the market is a fool's game and that shouldn't be thought of as a negative at all. It's an opportunity to reframe and focus on what you can control when it comes to investing. This includes tax efficiency and minimizing costs, but also goes deeper into diversification and properly protecting your financial house from uncertainty.  Have questions for an upcoming episode? Want to get free resources, book giveaways, and AWM gear? Want to hear about when we release new episodes? Text “insights” or the lightbulb emoji (

After spending years going through a tough academic program, one dissertation away from achieving a degree, Wes Gray chose to take a step back and join the Marine Corps. Following five years of service, Wes finished his degree at The University of Chicago, studying under the acclaimed Eugene Fama. While working as a professor, a cold call from a billionaire in New York prompted Wes to begin moonlighting as an internal due diligence agent. That decision to take on a second job became his inspiration for Alpha Architect – an asset management firm committed to empowering investors through education.  In this episode, Wes talks with Doug and Greg about why Alpha Architect is abnormal, the method to their madness, how Wes challenged Eugene Fama (and nearly won), how Alpha Architect is responding to today's volatile markets, and what the future looks like for value investors.  Key Takeaways [01:24] - How Wes transitioned from professor to founder of Alpha Architect.  [04:50] - Why Wes' studies led him to be more of a quant than a discretionary investor.  [14:00] - Has a rise in awareness diluted investors' ability to obtain Alpha?  [19:25] - How Wes explains the recent market volatility.  [22:40] - How Alpha Architect responds to “flows” and market volatility.  [26:23] - How Alpha Architect remains tax-efficient.  [29:37] - What Wes believes the future looks like for value investors.  Quotes [27:14] - “One of the problems with the financial services industry is, the best idea, the best strategy in the world, can always be ruined by fees and taxes. And so, you can have a lot of excess returns, but if you give it all up in fees and taxes, what was the point?” ~ Wes Gray [31:08] - “No matter how you cut it, the valuation of value stocks is the cheapest it's ever been relative to the valuation of the market or gross stocks more particularly. And so the problem is timing. I have to survive the potential issue of, I go buy value stocks and then all the sudden all the crazy maniac stocks beat me and crush my soul by ten percent a year for the next ten years again.” ~ Wes Gray [31:57] - “The problem is, if there is a risk that you give up on fundamentals and the weighing machine in the short run, that means you will not get to extract the benefits of the long run. And I always tell people, you really need to sit down and think about your own brain psychology, and if you can't deal with the heat in the kitchen, get out of the kitchen and just go buy the Vanguard fund.” ~ Wes Gray Links  Wes Gray Alpha Architect  Eugene Fama The University of Chicago  Drexel University  Embedded Quantitative Value DIY Financial Advisor Quantitative Momentum Warren Buffett Robinhood  Vanguard iShares Seth Klarman Tesla BlackRock Cliff Asness: Still Crazy After All This YTD Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

En este episodio te explicamos todo sobre la hipótesis de mercados eficientes de Eugene Fama (1970) y cómo puedes utilizarla para tomar mejores decisiones de inversión. Te enseñaremos: ¿Son eficientes los mercados? ¿Qué los hace eficientes? ¿Qué consecuencias podemos esperar para nuestras inversiones? . . . . . APRENDE A GANAR DINERO EN LOS MERCADOS FINANCIEROS https://inversapiens.com/kit-gratuito/ Descarga un kit con Cursos online y Guías Prácticas 100% GRATIS para ganar dinero invirtiendo tu dinero en los mercados financieros.

We are so happy to bring you all our 200th episode, and who better to have on the podcast on this auspicious occasion than the legendary, Professor Gene Fama? This is one of the most jam-packed episodes we have ever recorded, with Gene providing concise and thought-provoking answers to our many, many questions. After delving into the foundations of Gene's work and philosophy, covering market efficiency, and its competing theories, Gene entertains our queries about a wide range of ideas and models, and generously shares the decades worth of wisdom that he is so widely known for. We also find time to talk about retirement plans, inflation, cryptocurrencies, and the influence of machine learning. Towards the end of our conversation, our guest touches on some more personal ideas about productivity, his career, his partnership with Ken French, and what success means to him at this point. For a landmark episode, with a true hero of the evidence-based approach to investing, make sure not to miss this.   Key Points From This Episode:   The basics of market efficiency and its main implications for investors. [0:04:49] Limitations of the efficient markets model for explaining specific cases. [0:08:02] Gene's perspective on the inelastic markets hypothesis and his interest in it for the future. [0:09:36] The anomalies that brought down the capital asset pricing model. [0:10:26] Unpacking the three-factor and five-factor asset pricing models that Fama and French created. [0:11:43] Thoughts on the Q-factor model, factor premiums, and data dredging. [0:15:43] Gene's reflections on building data sets dating back to the 1920s. [0:17:13] The best way to estimate expected returns and expected factor premiums according to Gene. [0:19:52] Structuring portfolios and how different investors should approach this. [0:24:10] Considering international diversification for investors in Canada. [0:29:05] Further thoughts on asset pricing models. [0:32:47] The assets that are hedged against expected and unexpected inflation. [0:33:31] Gene illuminates the role of the Fed in relation to inflation. [0:36:43] Advice for typical retirees from Gene. [0:38:22] The challenges that Gene has experienced translating theory into practice. [0:40:16] Lesson from Gene's work with Dimension Fund Advisors. [0:43:47] Gene's reflections on his impact and having his theories implemented in practice. [0:45:32] Weighing the value and impact of behavioral finance. [0:47:53] Technology and active managers; is it any different for those aiming to achieve alpha in the current context? [0:50:46] Gene weighs in on cryptocurrencies and how his perspective might have shifted. [0:53:08] A look at the people who have had the biggest influence on Gene's career. [1:03:05] Thoughts on productivity and making the most of periods of clear thinking. [1:03:39] Our guest's personal definition of a successful life. [1:06:17]

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to work at Dimensional Fund Advisors, but Gerard O'Reilly sees it as an asset, particularly when it comes to problem-solving. Now the Co-CEO and Chief Investment Officer of one of the fastest-growing US investment businesses, Gerard received a Ph.D. in aeronautics before entering fund management, attracted to Dimensional because of the opportunity it afforded him to learn from the world-leading economists at the company; including Eugene Fama, Myron Scholes, Merton Miller, Robert Merton, and Ken French. We recently sat down with Gerard to discuss the firm's research-based culture and rules-based approach to investing. In this episode, we get into the nitty-gritty regarding Dimensional's distinctive portfolio management decisions and the data sources they draw from and Gerard answers some technical questions regarding risk assessment, factor tilted portfolios, operating profitability, goodwill, and more. We also touch on the value of combining multiple metrics, why small-cap stocks deserve a place in your portfolio, and some of the biggest changes that Gerard has witnessed in Dimensional portfolios over the past decade, as well as how he applies his scientific learnings to make unique portfolio adjustments and some of the various benefits of Dimensional's integrated approach. Make sure not to miss this informative, insightful, and in-depth conversation with Dimensional CIO and Co-CEO, Gerard O'Reilly!   Key Points From This Episode: Market-cap-weighted passive strategies versus Dimensional's rules-based higher expected return strategy. [0:03:45] Assessing risk based on the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). [0:07:07] Diversification in a factor tilted portfolio versus a cap-weighted market portfolio. [0:10:57] What criteria the variables that Dimensional uses need to meet before they're considered dimensions of expected returns. [0:13:00] Sources Dimensional draws from regarding portfolio decisions and implementation. [0:16:09] How Gerard decides between underweighting or excluding securities in portfolios. [0:19:59] Why Dimensional uses operating profitability rather than cash-based profitability. [0:22:38] Gerard's view on intangible assets, goodwill, and Dimensional's investment strategy. [0:29:31] The value of including internally developed intangibles in value and profitability metrics. [0:37:49] Gerard reflects on the opinion that Fama and French's findings are no longer valid. [0:42:58] Whether or not it's better to combine multiple metrics to measure relative price. [0:46:41] How Dimensional targets value and profitability together (for large and small caps). [0:50:39] How Gerard thinks about capacity for investment strategies in small and micro-cap stocks as Dimensional continues to grow. [0:54:03] Understanding how entering into the ETF market has impacted his thinking. [0:57:24] Expected premiums for owning smaller stocks over larger ones. [0:58:50] The importance of security lending revenue for expected returns on Dimensional funds; improving the investor experience. [1:00:12] How Dimensional deals with sector weights and the role that diversification plays. [1:04:12] Why they decided to implement credit, despite research to suggest that it doesn't add an independent source of expected returns. [1:06:08] Some of the biggest changes in Dimensional portfolios over the past 10 years. [1:10:23] How Gerard applies his scientific learnings to make unique portfolio adjustments. [1:12:52] Comparing Dimensional's core and vector strategies with a combined cap-weighted portfolio; from fees to the benefits of hindsight and more. [1:15:15] Papers that seemed compelling but were deemed ineffective by their research team. [1:19:11] Insight into Dimensional's decision to make their internal research public. [1:21:42] Why their rules-based approach is the hardest part of Dimensional to replicate. [1:25:55] What to be aware of when comparing backtests: how data can be manipulated. [1:30:06] Valuable lessons and perspectives Gerard has learned from their competitors. [1:32:22] Commonalities between aeronautics and asset management, like problem-solving. [1:35:20] Why Gerard believes that having his own financial advisor is invaluable. [1:36:55] Gerard explains why we might expect factor premiums to persist in equilibrium. [1:38:28]

Kevin Erdmann is the author of "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" and "Building from the Ground Up: Reclaiming the American Housing Boom". His work has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Barron's, the National Review, USA Today, and Politico, and it has been featured on C-SPAN. Some of his papers and articles published with the support of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University can be found at https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/kevin-erdmann . He tweets as @KAErdmann. In this episode we talked about:  • Kevin`s Bio & Background  • Great Financial Crisis and America's Housing Boom  • Post Crisis Period in Real Estate  • View on Housing Bubble  • Unlocking Affordable Housing Policy  • “What are Landlords good for?”  • Real Estate Trends 2022 Useful links: https://twitter.com/kaerdmann https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/2022/03/16-part-series-on-housing-affordability.html https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/kevin-erdmann Transcriptions: Jesse (0s): Welcome to the working capital real estate podcast. My name is Jesper galley. And on this show, we discuss all things real estate with investors and experts in a variety of industries that impact real estate. Whether you're looking at your first investment or raising your first fund, join me and let's build that portfolio one square foot at a time. Ladies and gentlemen, my name's Jessica galley, and you're listening to working capital the real estate podcast. My guest today is Kevin Erdmann. Kevin is a former small businessman and a researcher in hosing monetary policy and financial markets.   In 2015, Kevin began to reconsider a range of evidence contradicting commonly held beliefs about the pre 2007 American housing boom, his first book shutout along with several extensions to his research, which were published with the support of the Mercatus center at George Mason university, where he continued to develop a revolutionary new approach to the practical rules of housing debt and money in recent American trends. I caught the attention or he caught my attention recently reading an article and the article was entitled.   What are landlords good for? And I thought that was an interesting question. So here we are today, Kevin, how you doing?   Kevin (1m 11s): Great. It's great. Thanks for having me.   Jesse (1m 13s): Yeah. Well thank you for coming on. We were talking a little bit before the show, a little bit about your background and kind of that first article that I saw. And I was like, well, you know what? It sounds like something that the listeners would get, get a lot of good information, especially since we kind of tackle real estate from the investor's perspective, but also an economic perspective. So thanks again, I guess, you know, we always start with a little bit of a, a history lesson on our guests are a little bit of a background, so maybe you could kick us off and talk a little bit about, you know, your past roles and how you kind of came into the world, the world of real estate and economics.   Kevin (1m 53s): I, yeah, it really is all sort of an accident. I was a, as you mentioned, I was a small business owner and back around 2010, 2011, I went back to school to get a graduate degree in finance. And I was sort of making my way toward a new career in finance. And in the meantime was just doing sort of personal research. And in, in the process of doing what I thought would be sort of a week or two week or month long dive into home builders and whether they might be a good investment back in 2015, in 2016, you know, sort of background research, I just kept running into oddities and the data that just completely contradicted the conventional wisdom about what had happened leading up to 2008, you know, that were compelling enough that I, you know, turned into two months in three months and really it was six or seven or eight months into the, into that research before I really Paul the, this whole sort of closed access to the idea, whole limited supply problem into the sort of the center of this story.   Originally, the first things were just re you know, finding national data on credit and that sort of thing, just, you know, there, there was, there was no sign in the national data back in that period of, of there being this, they lose of credit going to unqualified homeowners and that sort of thing. And so anyway, just all of this, all of these points kept building up to the point where I just accidentally sort of had this tiger by the tail of this story to tell, but for some reason, nobody else had discovered, and, and the book just comes out of the accident of learning this stuff and realizing it was important enough to, to shares.   So here I am six years into that week-long projects   Jesse (3m 50s): For where you formerly in the research world at that point, you said you were doing a graduate degree with, did that just kind of coincidentally that happened at the same time, or was that prompted by, by your research in, in your graduate degree?   Kevin (4m 3s): Yeah, no, I was just, you know, I managed some personal money and I was just intending to go back and, you know, go into transition away from small business ownership to some sort of career in finance. And just this story was so compelling. It drew me into what really, I suppose now as a career in public policy. So although there definitely are a lot of lessons for it, for investors and homeowners and everybody else.   Jesse (4m 27s): Yeah. We're finding more and more, everything seems to be interrelated. So, you know, for the person taking a look at this from the outside, you hear a million different stories after the great financial crisis after the housing boom in oh six, you know, what was it? Well, I guess, to back up, what is the general perception from your point of view that people had, or the story that they told themselves about that time period? And what were you finding that, you know, was the first telltale to you that there's some contradictions here?   Kevin (5m 0s): I mean, the first things that I found were, again, like I said, just that there really is very little evidence, you know, for instance, the typical, the median home homeowner in 2005 or six had a higher relative income compared to renters than they had had in say 1995, there wasn't this surge of unqualified homeowners, their average homeowner in 2005 and six had, you know, tended to have like education was becoming a more important factor.   So ownership among high school graduates was relatively level or declining in homeownership, you know, among college graduates and people with professional degrees and that's where home ownership was rising. So those were the initial sort of data points. But eventually what I realized is, you know, really what we have is a supply problem. There's key cities, which I call the closed access to these, which mainly is Boston, New York city San now LA those, those metropolitan areas that, you know, the character of our economy is basically becoming dominated by the fact that those cities aren't willing and able to grow as fast as the economy should grow.   And so what happens anytime there's any sort of growth, whether it's growth in credit access or just incomes, just productivity, there's this increasing bidding war to get into these limited locations. And so what happens is the price of housing skyrockets as a result of that. And so looking at that, there seems to be just an, for some reason, a bias toward blaming demand side factors on that too much money, too much credit speculators.   You know, today we we've sort of killed the marginal home buyer market. So today we blame private equity and foreign buyers and corporate buyers and corporate landlords. And, but all along, it's just not enough supply price can go up for two reasons, not enough supply or too much demand and all along, even back then, the problem is not enough. And instead we have this recurring intuition to say, oh, everyone else has too much money. And that's why I can't afford important things anymore.   And, and so, yeah, it's, you know, it's, it's a simple story thing. The houses are expensive because we don't have enough of them and you just have to look at it. You know, it's not hard to understand. You just have to look at it and accept that as a potential conclusion. And then the rest, the rest of the story sort of tells itself.   Jesse (7m 43s): So at the time, or even ex post the, you know, after, after the, the crisis years after we, you have movies coming out, you have people, you know, writing articles specifically on this writing books, you know, a lot of what the, I would say the general public was told was there was a lot of available credit. There was access to a lot of money. The money was very cheap, you know, somewhat similar to what we're hearing right now, fast forward this many years, but there was also this, this conversation or this theme that there was excess building, that there was an oversupply of housing.   And, you know, what was it about this story that was so compelling for people to adopt? If, if you know, you're saying the cases, the data just does, did not, or does not bear it out.   Kevin (8m 36s): I mean, it's a, it's a good question. I, I mean, today, you know, to me, it's getting, it's been, it's sort of easy for me to tell the story as time passes, because to continue holding onto that conventional wisdom gets harder and harder over time, right? Like I made today, we're in this weird political environment where, you know, mortgage growth growth has actually been, you know, dead for a decade and barely has started growing again in the last couple quarters.   And so how exactly are lower are low mortgage rates, you know, the, the, to blame for rising home prices, it's cashed by like everybody knows this, you see papers or stories in every paper about cash buyers coming in and 20 bids over asking and all this stuff. And so people with mortgages can't even get in on the process because they, they can't get an appraisal high enough to get their mortgage funded. So, you know, at some points that it just becomes absurd to, to blame credit for it.   You know, it's not quite as absurd back then, but effectively the same disconnects are, are in play and in the newer, but building from the ground at that, I know some of the data about, you know, for instance, in a, in a market like Arizona, which was, you know, a poster child was sort of a bubble city. You know, the, the conventional story is there was all this money flooding into housing through the credit channels that led to a bunch of excess building, or actually first that led to prices skyrocketing because of all this credit.   And then that led to overbuilding too many housing, too many houses. And then that all collapsed of its own weight. But it, it happened in the opposite order of that. The first thing that happened was there was a lot of new building because Phoenix was taking in all these people that didn't have houses in LA that would have preferred to live in LA. So the first thing that happened is there's a bunch of new building in Phoenix, but then they, they sort of reached their local limit. So then you see prices start to sky rocket and Phoenix in 2004 and five borrowing, you know, per capita debt in Arizona is still pretty normal until late 2005.   And then finally, when house prices in starts peaked at the end of 2005, then you finally start to see debt start to raise. So everything happens in the opposite order of what, you know, what the stories seemed to tell, you know, the conventional wisdom says, but you know, it, you have to sort of dig into the numbers a little bit and, and, you know, to sort of see that come out, you know, one of the problems is there's not really a national housing market.   And I think that's where there should, there could be a national housing market, but because these supply constraints were so localized, it's very difficult to just certain information. You have to be careful about this serving information by looking at national numbers, because the market in Nashville or Omaha was much different than marketing San Francisco. And you throw all those numbers into one big basket, you know, the, the noise ends up hiding the information. So that's, that's one, you know, if you look at the national numbers, it does look like mortgages and prices were all sort of going up together.   But you know, most of the countries didn't have either a price, boom, or as construction, boom, most of you know, cities like Atlanta and Omaha and all those cities were building houses about the same rate as they have been, you know, for several years, the housing boom is in, was in places like LA that were building so few houses that even a relative boom is still an it pitiful on absolute members. And then you had a boom in places like Phoenix that are overwhelmed by the people looking for affordable place to live.   Jesse (12m 42s): And with that story, I assume, when you looked at different cities was the same story of that causality, just being exactly the opposite of what people had thought it was that, you know, interest rates, you know, if those were a factor, it was almost like gasoline at the very end to, to kind of keep fueling what had already started prior.   Kevin (13m 1s): Yeah, yeah. And so, you know, really when you get to 2007, you have what we have is a housing market or in an economy, or let's say you go back to 2005, really in 2005, the fed was, you know, pretty much, you know, we were about on target in terms of nominal GDP growth inflation. The thing we were a little out of whack on was that rent inflation had been high since the mid nineties and was still a little high, but was finally actually coming down where rent inflation was about the same as normal inflation.   So, so in 2005, what we really had was in the economy where the fed was doing their job, that we could use a few more homes, but the conventional wisdom was so powerfully sort of on the opposite side of the F you know, in the belief that we had overbuilt that there was, you know, the high prices were because of demand side stuff. So that must mean we're doing too much. And so, you know, the funny thing is housing started started to collapse in 2006.   The first thing that happened in 2006 and seven is rent inflation shoots back up again. So actually we, one of the things I go in to, in the building from the ground up narrative is it's sort of parallel to the seventies where you had inflation, but you had these oil shocks that the fed was reacting to really in 2006 and seven, what we had was a housing shock, just like the oil shocks. We got a housing supply shock because the fed itself had, had slowed down construction.   And then when rent inflation rared up in the face of this housing supply shock, the fed reacted to the inflation and say, oh, it's our job to keep inflation low. And we do that by lowering incomes. And so by 2006 and seven, we get in this vicious cycle where they're actually reacting to the shock they had. They had started, you know, instead of, instead of seeing what was happening and thinking, oh, we've gone too far. Every time they Ratched it up, you know, slow down the economy more and rent, inflation was high and housing starts kept collapsing.   Then they looked at that and they said, oh, we, we were wrong. You know, our critics were right in 2005, we must have, we must have induced too much home building because now it's 2007. And when we try to correct things, home housing starts are collapsing even more than what we thought they would. So we must've been doing too much in 2005. And what happens is by the end of 2007, they're convinced that they had made mistakes in 2005. That by now it was too late to fix. They actually solved some sort of crisis coming and they just came to believe that they couldn't do anything about it.   Really, if they had flooded the market with liquidity in 2007, that what we needed is a fed aggressive enough for housing starts to recover in 2007. And then none, none of us would be talking about any of this today and what we we'd still be blaming the banks for. Hi, we'd be having the conversation they have in Canada about housing, right? We'd still be blaming whatever for home prices and probably blaming the fed for them, not knowing that we had escaped the worst economic calamity intergeneration.   Jesse (16m 14s): So what, what policy mechanisms, so back then, we'll, we'll fast forward today in a little bit, but what policy mechanism at that point, are you going to be able to use to encourage that or discourage the, what you were talking about with Arizona, where you hit your cap, you know, very similar to Toronto or New York LA very strict laws on, you know, how much can be built, what can be built. So is it, is it are the mechanisms left at the local level rather than at the federal level? You know, what do you do at that point where you're trying to encourage, you're trying to encourage building and, and we're, we're conceding that it is a supply issue.   Kevin (16m 53s): Exactly. Yeah. So that's, you know, that's the difficult question is optimal policies aren't available. So, you know, really, it's just the case that we have these cities that are unwilling to grow at the rate that our economy should be growing. And so anytime anything good happens, you know, if things get good enough, then there's this inevitable segregation by financial means by, you know, segregation by income, you know, the people that can, you know, now there's a bidding war for those, these limited locations.   So anything that eventually leads to just a nice economy that you'd like to have is going to lead to a segregation at this inter metropolitan or area migration. And the way that migration works is housing gets more and more expensive in those cities until somebody hurts enough that they give up on living in the city, they want lived to move to these other cities. So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's sort of a weird, you know, th the second best optimal solution in that context is to slow the economy down enough, to like limit the pain of that segregation process.   That's not, you know, we need those cities to fix their problems. That's not, that's not a second best solution. You want your national economic figures to be aiming for. Right. But, but yeah, that's essentially, that's what happened is that process of segregation because of a lack of housing got so accelerated so much and became so painful that it started, you know, bleeding out into these, the cities that I call the contagion cities, which are the Phoenix, is in Florida and Arizona and Nevada and inland California, that we're taking in all these people coming out of the coastal metropolises.   And so what happened is the fed slowed down the economy enough to, to ease those segregation pressures. And then, but then, you know, instead of sort of stopping one thing I say in the band building from the ground up is they actually did succeed by mid 2007 at creating a soft landing, as good as they ever could have planned for. And that was the least satisfying, you know, conclude, you know, in expat they could get at, nobody was satisfied with that.   And so they kept pushing and pushing it to all that bad debt actually happens well past the peak of the housing boom of people in places like Arizona and Florida, that now are early entrance into this coming crisis, because they've said that, you know, for decades, they've been growing two or two and a half percent a year. And then as that as, as the economic growth in the two thousands ratcheted up and people were moving there to find affordable housing, now they're going and more like 3% a year.   And it's so much that that's adding stress to their local economies. And then suddenly from 2006 to 2008 or nine, it goes to zebra, like suddenly decades, long migration, just flattens. And so, although, you know, so many of those mortgages taking, taken out in Arizona and Florida in 2006 and seven were actually just households dealing with the financial crisis that hit them before it hit everyone else.   And instead of reacting to that with generosity, with, with the name towards stability, we just took everything that happened as a, this is another thing that's happening because of this, because of the excesses from 2005, and really for people to learn their lesson, people need to suffer those losses. You know, that was the mentality. And so, you know, that 2008 crisis was really a popular crisis that happened because nobody would for anything less damaging than that.   Jesse (20m 50s): So just on this point, I want to talk a little bit about affordable housing and policy perspective, but just before we do on that, the, the idea, you know, we're, we're in a housing bubble or, you know, we're, we're currently in a housing bubble or back then we were in a housing bubble. I know, you know, you can take the very strict in every time I would do little bit of research on this. You'd get, you know, the famous Eugene Fama and, you know, he would talk about it's, he would have such a strict definition of what a bubble could possibly be that it's like, well, it's always priced in, but this idea that asset prices are untenably high was, is that the framework that you looked at, oh 7 0 8 or even today, or do you have a different, different view on what that, that term means to you?   Kevin (21m 37s): Again, this is a great example of how looking at national numbers versus desegregated numbers is, you know, it gives you two different stories. So you can look at national numbers and, you know, from the mid nineties, till 2005 price to rent ratios, you know, take the national aggregate value of homes and divided by the national rental value of homes and priced rate ratios went up. And so it's a very easy story to tell yourself that, oh, there's all this credit it's, you know, prices are rising and, you know, all the official documents on this, like the financial crisis, that agree commission, the 500 books on the shelf at the bookstore about the crisis.   I mean, they all, they all, they all very briefly point that out and it becomes the presumption of everything to follow, you know, like the big short, like, you know, in the book, in building from the ground up, I say, you know, the big, there's nothing wrong in the big short, it's just a story about an, a growing crisis that started in 2006. And it just takes us the presumption that that crisis was inevitable or that these things happening in 2006, have anything to do with what happened in 2003 or four or five.   And so it's just that, you know, that, that presumption that, oh, prices went up for no reason. And they so surely they must have to come back down. Right. But if you desegregate by city, you know, re prices were going up where rents were going up, prices were going up where there aren't any vacancies, you know, so if you, if you do a cross sectional and regression across cities, then it's the stories reversed, but prices are totally being driven by fundamentals.   And it is funny in, in the financial crisis inquiry commission report, you know, they take, they do literally take a single paragraph to dismiss rents is an important factor in rising prices. And it, you know, with this, this logic that price to rent ratios have gone up well, the, they have three or four cities, examples of where priced rent ratios, you know, had doubled or more at which, you know, surely is so outrageous that it shows the prices are too high to those cities where LA in New York city.   So, you know, to me, the, you know, sort of reorienting the way we look at this story, imagine writing a 500 page review of the financial crisis. And based on the idea that rent is an unimportant factor in high-end housing costs in Los Angeles and New York city, right? The reason price to rent ratios are so high. Ironically, the reason price to rent ratios were so high and had gone up so much, is that the main factor that increases price to rent ratios is high rents.   I just cry across time across cities, within cities, anywhere where you compare rents and prices, price to rent ratios are always highest where rents are Heights. And I'm sure all your investor listeners understand that, you know, they're, they're not out by, you know, getting investment properties in the wealthy suburbs of the metropolitan areas, because the cause the returns on their investment are much lower there. You know, the, the investors are buying at the low end where your, where your cap rates, where your, your, your yields are higher.   It's just a systematic thing that happens across the board. So again, it's this weird, you can understand how they would make that mistake. It seems like they give price to rent ratio is a doubled over a decade that, that, that, you know, you know, you don't have it. Doesn't take a lot of analysis to say, oh yeah, the prices must be rising in spite of rinse. But the irony is actually those, you know, you go again, you go to an Omaha or a St.   Louis Price ratios hadn't changed very much at all in those cities. Now, if it was households with low incomes, getting, getting mortgages, they weren't qualified for those would be the cities you do. You think you'd see a bit of a jump in the price to rent ratios they heard, right. But no re their prices were highly throughout this entire period from the mid nineties tilts today, rent has continually become a more and more important factor determining the relative price of, of any particular house.   Jesse (26m 3s): So for the, I mean, to me, that analysis, you, you almost, it's easier to accept the former because it just, one thing is easily. You can say, okay, that follows where the other one, you have to do a little bit more digging. So for instance, if you see, especially, you know, Toronto Vancouver, where we were, where we are very similar to San Francisco LA New York, where you could from the outside valuations have gone up like crazy interest rates aside from very recently have remained very low.   And for the foreseeable future, that's the way it looked like it was going to go and rents were going up, but not at the same rate, that values were going up. And if you just looked at it, just statically that, then you could kind of see that argument. But, you know, even, you know, for where we live, we've this year, we're going to have record immigration. And I re I don't remember a law firm economics class, but I remember, you know, what moves, not just what goes up and down the supply curve, but what actually shifts the supply curve and, you know, technological innovation or immigration, where those are things that maybe they're not necessarily seen right from the outset.   But those coupled with lack of building could create this mismatch. I'm curious, the, the actual from the perspective, and then we can dive into affordable housing here from the perspective of, of affordable housing. I think in, you know, in many cities in north America, there, there is housing that is left, locked because of regulations and, you know, basement, walkouts, accessory apartments, different zoning regulation.   Is that a, is that a large portion of where you think that we could unlock affordable housing? Would that be a policy tool that, that, you know, would be at the top of the list?   Kevin (27m 48s): I think we definitely, it, it's not a situation now where there are just tons of empty units. I don't think, I mean, I think there's a lot of locked, you know, unbuilt units and some of my colleagues at Mercatus, you know, work on that, they call it the missing middle sort of, you know, there was this historically there was a, there used to be a lot more of, you know, say a family, building a duplex or triplex and living in one of the units or building a unit in the backyard, or, you know, that may be a grandparent lives in to begin with and eventually becomes a rental or whatever.   So that sort of building just hasn't been happening for decades because it was regulated away. And, but vacancies have really, you know, we really put, turn the screws tightly on mortgage lending after 2007. And so I really, what I say is there's a donut hole in the American housing market. Now, there are, you know, we're sort of maxing out our multiunit building, which is really largely limited by regulatory obstacles.   And then that the pristine credit borrowers at the high end are, are buying as much house as they want because they can get low rates. And they, you know, so they they're basically unconstrained in how much housing they went. And then there's this middle millions of households that used to be able to get mortgages that can't today. And so it's that entry level, new housing market that we just basically, you know, any given year before say 2006, the new homes built for sale at, at less than a $200,000 price point in the United States.   There were, there would be more than a half a million a year built by the last couple of years. That's down to like 70,000 a year. Now, you know, there's some inflation, it's a little bit hard to control for that, but, you know, for most of that time, home prices were lower than they had been in 2005. So, so really we, we just made it impossible for those entry level owners to induce new supply themselves. So that's the irony today is now today because there's a, you know, everyone blames demand side stuff, you know, for high home prices what's happened is because we have this donut hole in the middle of the American housing market.   No, city's been able to build enough at the Metro area level to have adequate supply over the last 12 years. And so in every city rents at the low end are going up just like Vincent. The low ended have been going up in San Francisco, in New York city for, for, you know, years before then. And now that's drawing in institutional investors. And now the narrative is, oh, institutional investors are pricing out, you know, traditional home buyers. Well, you know, we we've excluded traditional home buyers from that market 12, 13 years ago that, you know, any, anybody that can get a mortgage in those sort of markets could lower their monthly housing costs by becoming an owner versus a renter in most cities today, it becomes the low end.   The yields are very good. So, you know, especially compared to mortgage rates. So it's, it's, they're not being priced out of the market. They're being regulated out of the market. And it's good. Finally, we have institutions coming in with enough interest that it's actually inducing home builders to build entry-level units and these new build for rent neighborhoods. Now, those shouldn't be being bought by the families that are gonna live in them, but it's not the institutions that are keeping them out.   It's the, it's the FHF and the consumer finance protection bureau that are keeping them from being owners.   Jesse (31m 47s): So you talked, I mean, we started at the outset of this, basically this article that you wrote that kind of ties in here and it was called what are landlords good for? And I just wanted to, we talked a little bit about this, but I hope, hope that you can expand a little bit and I'll just quote this part here. So to understand why housing affordability policies should primarily consider rent and why the U S focus on price has proven disastrous. We need to understand the roles and incentives of three key parties, landlords financeers and tenants and quote at this particular article article was about the three services that landlords provide transactional capital and diversification as kind of the spotlight for this, this concept.   You know, you don't have to go into super granular detail here, but could you talk a little bit about what you, you know, what the aim of that article was and why the focus on, on landlords in this particular way?   Kevin (32m 45s): Yeah, well, maybe, I don't know if this is coming directly from the same point of that article, but, but I do think one of the things, you know, on that idea of focusing on rents as the core affordability issue and not prices, I think we, there's a lot of bad habits in housing analysis that I wish we could, we could move past. And one of them is treating the homeowner market as if it's a different thing than the renter market, you know, and a lot of times you get these sort of implications in the way people talk about housing as if, when somebody buys a house that, you know, somehow that's adding demand for housing as if they were living under a bridge when they weren't an owner, or, you know, when an institution buys a house that takes away supply, or, you know, as if, you know, they tear it down after they buy it.   Right. And, and another thing which I think these, these cities with the lack of supply of sort of fed into another notion, which is that either you get these outstanding, you know, excess returns, like somebody that bought a house in LA or San Francisco twenty-five years ago, that somehow that's like the goal of being a homeowner and that somebody that bought a house for 120,000 to Detroit twenty-five years ago, that may be only worth 150,000 today somehow missed out.   Or somehow that was a bad investment use. You've seen this phrase a lot that housing can be affordable, or it could investment, but can't be both. It's like, you know, the, Y w people acting wise will say this, you know, you know, sort of impart their wisdom on everyone. And it's a terrible, it's totally wrong, you know, and it, nobody goes to the stock market and says, oh, I'm only going to buy the most expensive stocks because you know, it's not, can be expensive, they're affordable or a good investment, but not both, but of course the best affordable house is the cheap house.   And you shouldn't expect to make a million dollars on it. If you sit on it for, that's the thing that's wrong, that's the thing that's out of whack. And so I think there's been way too much focus on the idea that buying a house gives you access to capital gains. And in fact, the main value to being a homeowner is that you're, that you're getting a job as a landlord, as a management company, and you have the best tenants anyone could ever ask for that never disagreed, you know, that never have any disagreements with you about how to manage the property, right?   They, if you take two years to fix the leaky window, they never complain, right. If you, if you can't afford to upgrade the kitchen exactly. When they went to, they're not going to move out on, they, they understand, you know, you have to wait until you, so they, you know, there's principal agent problems that make a landlord tenant situation, actually, you know, but by, by making the tenant and the landlord, the same person you get rid of all those costs, there's the problem with that, of that.   You can't diversify there. Now, you own this big giant asset, and that's a cost of that. But clearly for most people, the getting rid of the agency costs is, is more valuable than the lack of diversification. And so, again, that, to me, that's why the whole thing about institutions, pricing people out institutions, can't price people out. If somebody has access to credit, they will, they can outbid the institutions. It's the access to credit. That's a, and it's not that institutions have too much credit it's that we've prevented people from getting the credit that they need in order to get rid of these agency costs and be their own landlord.   So, you know, the thing is home ownership, the value of home ownership actually should be this really boring thing that it's, you know, amounts to a couple thousand dollars a year of, of being able to, you know, sort of earn the rental value of that a landlord would earn because they have to take the risk of having bad tenants, and you can earn that income without taking that risk on. And so, you know, you should be able to, you know, you should expect to be able to buy a cheap house in the city.   That's still going to be cheap in 20 years and be very happy with that investment. And in fact, that investment, as I was saying, price to rent ratios are systematically higher. The more expensive the market is. So the people were locking out of the market as homeowners. They're the people for whom being a homeowner is the most valuable that the yield on their unit is much better. You know, somebody that would love to get a mortgage to buy $150,000 house in Atlanta, that's paying, you know, they're paying 1500 a month in rent today and they could get a mortgage for 800 a month.   And the CFPB says, I don't think you're qualified for that. Right. You know, they we're preventing them from being a landlord for them is very lucrative. Like it's several hundred dollars a month in value they get from that. And so, yeah, we were basically locking out the people that, you know, the person that owns the half million dollar house in Atlanta that they're not getting as good a deal. It's still a good deal to be a homeowner for them, but it's not as good a deal as it is for the person that would like the $150,000 house.   Jesse (38m 15s): It's a compelling argument. When you say the, the, you know, when people are saying these institutional purchasers are pricing people out, they can't price people out. You know, for me, it crystallizes when I think about our industry and commercial real estate, when we have a multiple bid situation with commercial property, the nine times out of 10, it is the owner that is going to be able to pay the most for it. And it is essentially the same thing in, in, I mean, in a sense where they are purchasing and leasing back to their own company.   And it is this idea that they have all the mechanisms to be the one that can pay the most. So to your point, it kind of has a similar thread of, you know, comparing the institution that they can do everything that you are doing as the purchaser, but they can't eliminate every single tree. They can have scale, but they can eliminate every single transaction costs.   Kevin (39m 5s): Yeah, yeah. But yeah, it is very similar there. They can decide if you're, if you own it and they're the tenant, they, they have their own reasons for whether they would close the store down and, and not renew the lease or whatever. They don't care if that's a cost to you, but, but if they're their own landlord, well, now you can account for all the costs and maybe they'd stay a few more years and yeah, exactly. It's and so we, we basically regulated a bunch of American households out of being able to make that decision on the March.   Jesse (39m 39s): So we're coming up to the end of the, the time here. I think we, we definitely have to get you back on Kevin re I'm. Sure we could talk a little bit more about your book and the current situation or current, you know, place that we're in economically, but before we do, you know, give people direction on where they can go to reach out to you, maybe we talk a little bit about, you know, where you see trends are going right now with, you know, we're in the beginning and of Q1 20, 22, you know, is there anything that people should be looking out for from real estate or economics point of view that you'd like to touch on?   Kevin (40m 16s): I'd say it's a little bit the same in a little bit different than what was happening in 2004 and five. Again, it's, it's the same story in that rents are what's driving prices in a way that's much more connected and important that people are giving group credit for it. And in fact, I, one of the things I think is sort of funny about the, all these sort of public conversations happening is you get a conversation over here, you know, oh, you know, rent inflation is really high. And you know, the CPI rent inflation is lagging, but you know, the, the indexes that follow, you know, market rents on new units, they're up double digits.   And so these across the country, right? So you have that conversation that, oh, rents are through the roof. And so that conversation tends to be about oh, inflation and monetary policy. So we need to, we need to slow down the economy because people have too much money. Then there's this other conversation that, oh, prices are through the roof. And it, and it's because mortgage rates are too low. And so people are overpaying for houses and, and it's a whole totally different conversation.   But it's based on this idea that the fed controls, the interest rate, which they don't, the fed couldn't make mortgage rates 6%. If they, they, we would be trade. We would be bartering seashells for things before they could get Margaret trace to 5%, they'd have to suck every dollar out of the fact, that's what happened in 2008, they literally would have had to suck every dollar out of the economy to hit their 2% rate a target in 2008. And, and they couldn't, and they ended up creating a financial crisis.   So, but there's this idea that the fed controls that rate. And so now they have to raise rates to S to lower those prices because the prices, well, those things are related. High prices are high because rents are high and they're both high because we don't have enough supply. And, but the thing that makes it different in 2005 is that back then, it was very localized. That prices were going up in these, in these individual metropolitan areas that, that were, that specifically have local supply problems.   When we put this donut hole in the middle of the American housing buyer market. Now we've created a supply crisis in every city in the country. So rents are going up everywhere. Like they had been only going up in the coastal metropolises and those, those housing costs take on a, in fact, I got some papers that I'm, that we'll be publishing pretty soon. I've been working on this, this idea that when there's limited supply in a city, it takes a very peculiar picture.   It's the low end of the city where prices and rents get ratcheted up by that lack of supply. Because at th at the high end, people can substitute down. Like if, if you're making $200,000 a year in San Francisco, you're not going to buy the same house. You'd buy in Phoenix. What you're going to do a substitute down to a neighborhood that should, the people that live in that neighborhood should be able to making 70,000 a year, but you're taking one of their houses because you, because you're not going to spend the money. Right. So all that pressure gets pushed down, down, down and down in the market.   So all the, all the cost pressure ends up getting, getting loaded at the low end until finally somebody making $50,000 a year moves out of town because they just can't take the cost anymore, but you can see this. So for instance, in the last five or six years, rent inflation is through the roof in every city, but it's very income specific in the, in, in the neighborhoods, in a city where incomes are low, every city is seeing double digit inflation rents at the high end are pretty stable. So you get this weird market where yeah.   Prices are going up at the high end of every city. And yeah, those are, you know, somewhat related to low interest rates. So there is some, there is a little bit of, of price to rent ratio expansion at the top end, which is, you know, it's still a fundamental it's rates are low and they're low for fundamental reasons at the low end prices are going up more than that. Then they are at the high end, but it's purely a rent function. It's purely because rents are going up so much more than women.   So the irony is, yeah, there is some, some expansion in the ratios, but the, the homes where the homes whose prices have gone up the most are the homes where ratio expansion is the least important fact. It's, it's rents that are driving the places that are going up the most. That's not going to reverse overnight. Like we need to build millions of homes to stop that process. Now, I, I see again, you know, where it's second best alternatives.   We should be building a bunch of condos in New York city in LA, and we're not. So the best, second best alternative is to build whatever we can everywhere else. So, you know, we have second best, you know, we start with the second best, you know, we should be building homes or condos in LA and San Francisco. We can't. So we built, so we try to build them everywhere else. You know, that means a lot of people would be building a lot of single family homes in the suburbs and all these other cities. Now we won't let it that a lot of them do it.   So now it's like the best alternative is to let institutions build them and rent them out. So, you know, if that's the only solution we allow for ourselves, then that's the only way we're going to bring down rents and that's going to be a long drawn out process. But I certainly don't take any, Hey, I don't think anybody needs to worry about mortgage rates going to 7%, all of a sudden, and be even if mortgage rates go up a little, I don't think low rates are really what's driving the market.   So housing, I think, and real estate, General's a very interesting sector now because it really is sort of both offensive defense. You know, there's, the rents are going to keep rising until we meet the demand with adequate supply. And so there's going to be a natural continuing price appreciation. And the only way that that's going to stop is for the home builders and the, and the private equity, you know, multiunit built companies to, to do what they do and do more of it.   And so to me, there's nothing, but you know, nothing but growth ahead, either in supply or in prices. And yeah, so, you know, I'm shocked at the, you know, I think there's so much worry in the market about reliving 2008. To me, you look at some of the valuations on home builders. It's, it's just insanity. They're trading at legitimate PE ratios of two or three points on forward PE ratios. And, you know, I don't see any legitimate reason to think their earnings are going anywhere.   Jesse (47m 19s): Well, we definitely need to delve into, I guess, the, the state of the economy now and, and what we see coming down the pike, because I think it's, it's another conversation Kevin, for individuals that want to, you know, get in contact, or just want to get exposed to some of the writings that you, that you're doing. And you mentioned a couple of papers as well. I work in working people, working, you send them to online.   Kevin (47m 45s): I have my Twitter handle is K Erdman and you can see the, the papers that'll be coming out will be Mercatus papers. And so my, my scholar page at Mercatus is probably a good spot to, to dig into. And including that, that the, the post you referenced was from, was it, I forget how many parts were in that say it was a long series. I did back a couple of years ago on housing affordability.   And so that you would find in that series, that the murkiness and scholar page.   Jesse (48m 19s): Yeah. We'll put a link up to that. And we'll, we'll link the, the two books on Amazon building from the ground up and shut out. So we'll have links. If anybody's interested there, just check out the show notes   Kevin (48m 33s): In my DMS are open at Twitter. If anybody wants to home,   Jesse (48m 38s): My guest today has been Kevin Erdman. Kevin, thank you for being part of working capital.   Kevin (48m 43s): Thanks.   Jesse (48m 51s): Thank you so much for listening to working capital the real estate podcast. I'm your host, Jesse, for galley. If you liked the episode, head on to iTunes and leave us a five star review and share on social media, it really helps us out. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Instagram, Jesse for galley, F R a G a L E, have a good one take care.  

In this episode we announce the roll out of the Risk Parity Chronicles blog and website from our listener Justin.  We also address emails from MyContactInfo, Spencer, Satoshi and Andre.  We discuss an interview of Eugene Fama about the war in the Ukraine, the ETF SAA (ProShares 2x Small Cap), the inherent problems with analyzing gold in a portfolio pre-1971 and related issues, and how to value a property to be inherited.Links:Justin's Risk Parity Chronicles blog and website:  Risk Parity Chronicles  Summary of Eugene Fama Interview:  Fama: It's Putin who's irrational, not the markets | The Evidence-Based Investor (evidenceinvestor.com)Next Level Life Analysis of Golden Butterfly Portfolio:  The Golden Butterfly Investing Strategy Explained (Most CONSISTENT Investing Strategy Ever?) - YouTubeArticle Regarding the London Gold Pool of the 1960s:   London Gold Pool - WikipediaSupport the show (https://www.riskparityradio.com/support)

Eugene Fama is the 2013 Nobel laureate in economic sciences,  widely recognized as the “father of modern finance.” Professor Fama finds himself in the wrong part of town and ends up on a podcast with Andy and Charlie.  Gene Fama is direct, funny, and generous in sharing insights on the evolution of financial markets dating back to his revolutionary efficient market hypothesis, the development of private equity as an asset class alongside of public equity, and a battery of current issues like inflation and cryptocurrency.  How good is he?  The MMM co-hosts are stunned into good behavior. 

In our weekly summary of the best posts on the Guru Investor blog, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau discuss the original content we produced and their favorite outside articles we featured on the blog for the week ending 4/30/2021. The Posts We Discuss Some Thoughts on Low Volatility Investing – Validea's Guru Investor Blog Academic Research Spotlight: Migration by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French (Ep. 85) – Validea's Guru Investor Blog Hedge Fund Short Trade Collapses While Longs Rise – Validea's Guru Investor Blog Greenblatt and Pzena on Active Management in 2021 – Validea's Guru Investor Blog Find Out More About Validea https://www.validea.com Follow Jack on Twitter https://www.validea.com/practicalquant Follow Justin on Twitter https://www.validea.com/jjcarbonneau Follow Us on YouTube https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

DFA entered the ETF space with a splash, launching three funds and announcing the conversion of some of its mutual funds to ETFs. Marlena Lee, head of Investment Solutions at the firm, walks us through that decision and shares fun lessons from her time working with economist Eugene Fama.

I expect the stock market to go up every day. What do I mean by that? Is it a realistic expectation? In this episode of Best in Wealth, I dissect a Business Insider article written by David G. Booth about chasing expected returns. I also share WHY his opinion is one that matters. Don't miss it! [bctt tweet="As a long-term investor, you need to chase the expected returns—not the expected. I talk through what I mean in this episode of Best in Wealth! #wealth #retirement #investing #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement" username=""] Outline of This Episode[1:09] Listeners: I need YOU to weigh-in [4:04] Just who is David G. Booth? [11:36] What David Booth's Business Insider article tells us [22:35] Why you should pursue expected returns Three facts about David G. BoothThere are three facts you need to know about David G. Booth: Firstly, David Booth went to the University of Kansas and graduated with a Bachelors Degree in Economics and a Masters Degree in Business. He graduated in 1969 and went to the University of Chicago School of Business. The University of Chicago is where The Center for Research of Security Prices (CRSP) is. All of the information on all stock prices exists at the CRSP. If you're reading research papers, they need to talk about the CRSP. Secondly, David Booth was the research assistant to Eugene Fama, the father of modern portfolio theory. He was named a Nobel Laureate and highly recognized in the field of finance. Thirdly, the University of Chicago School of Business is now called the Booth School of Business. Named after—you guessed it—David Booth. A brief—but important history—of David G. BoothDavid Booth left the University in 1971 to work for Wells Fargo. In the early 1970s, the very first index fund was developed—the S&P 500. Before this, every available mutual fund available was actively managed. This S&P 500 was only available to institutional investors. In 1976, John Bogle started Vanguard, with the first retail index 500 fund. In 1981, David left Wells Fargo and started Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA). Why did he start a company? He believed that a small-cap index could be developed. People said no way—that trading costs would outweigh any benefits of being in an index fund. He didn't care. So he built a board of directors including the brightest minds in financial market research. He proved everyone wrong. The small-cap index proved to be a winning strategy. [bctt tweet="In this episode of Best in Wealth, I share a brief—but important history—of David G. Booth. Why? You'll have to listen to find out! #wealth #retirement #investing #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement" username=""] What's different about Dimensional Fund Advisors?An index fund beats approximately 83% of actively managed mutual funds. The longer you hold, the better chance you have of beating the equivalent actively managed fund. The DFA manages over 600 billion dollars. They follow the science and build strategies around science. Since their inception, they've developed numerous successful strategies. Since 2000, only 17% of actively managed mutual funds beat the market. 84% of DFA funds beat the market. Index funds make up trillions of dollars worth of assets. Why is this important? Why am I telling you a story about David Booth? Because you need to listen to him. What David Booth's Business Insider article tells usPlease Note: This is not a recommendation to purchase a specific index fund. It's simply talking through an article by someone you should listen to. David expects the stock market to go up but isn't upset when it doesn't. He's there to capture the long-term ups. The S&P 500 sees an average 10% annualized return, right? 10% seems sensible. When it's divided throughout the year, you expect your portfolio to grow 0.0275% every day. But the market rarely goes up 10% per year. In the past 100 years, the stock market has...