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Mortgage rates are in play this week as the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury both step in to try to bring rates down, and I'm breaking down exactly what that means for you. If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates are headed, this is the episode to watch before the week's economic data starts rolling in.In today's show, I cover:• The Treasury's new bond buying plan (what some are calling "QE light") and how it's designed to push mortgage rates lower • The difference between the federal funds rate and the 10 year Treasury, and why only one of them actually controls your mortgage rate • This week's full economic calendar, including ADP jobs, Case Shiller home prices, PCE inflation, jobless claims, and the Jackson Hole symposium • Why oil prices are the number one thing to watch right now, and what happens to rates if the Iran conflict drags on or resolves • How to track your own rate and payment automatically with our free RateWatch toolRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blogCHAPTERS 0:00 The Treasury Is Buying Its Own Debt 1:47 What Actually Controls Your Mortgage Rate 3:35 This Week's Economic Calendar 6:10 Why Oil Is the Number to Watch 8:05 RateWatch and What to Do Next
Mortgage rates and inflation data are both in play today as the Treasury steps into the bond market to prop up prices. Dan Frio breaks down why bond buybacks matter for mortgage rates, what today's jobs report means, and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do next in 27 days.In this episode:• Why the Treasury stepped in yesterday to buy back bonds and prop up prices • What happens to mortgage rates when bond supply floods the market (the 2008 comparison) • $5.2 trillion in Treasury debt issued this year, and why that matters for your rate • Today's jobs report and Philly Fed manufacturing numbers, explained • The odds the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at the next meeting • What homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors should watch nextRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blogCHAPTERS 0:00 Treasury Steps Into the Bond Market 2:00 Why Too Many Bonds Push Mortgage Rates Up 4:00 Jobs Report and Manufacturing Numbers 6:00 Federal Reserve Rate Odds for the Next Meeting 8:00 What to Watch Next for Your Mortgage Rate
Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July with declines in every region, the lowest level since January. I break down what that means for mortgage rates, oil prices, and the Fed heading into today's FOMC minutes.In today's episode I cover:
Mortgage rates are moving today as the 30 year Treasury hits a 19 year high, oil prices climb, and new jobs and housing data shift the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.In this episode of The Rate Update, Dan Frio breaks down:Why the 30 year Treasury yield just hit a 19 year high and why that number is not your mortgage rateThe real bond that drives mortgage pricing and how to read itWhy oil prices are the single biggest driver of inflation and mortgage rates right nowHow tariffs, government spending, and a Supreme Court ruling are adding pressure to ratesToday's jobs report, building permits, housing starts, and import and export pricesWhat the Federal Reserve is watching ahead of its next meetingWhat Dan is telling his own clients to do right now if they are buying, building, or already own a homeReady to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approvedhttps://257781.my1003app.com/246527/registerWant to Talk Through Your Options? Schedule a Consultationhttps://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05Have Questions? Contact / Ask Danhttps://www.therateupdate.com/contactRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blogCHAPTERS0:00 30 Year Treasury Hits a 19 Year High1:35 Why Rates Are High: Oil, Tariffs & Government Spending3:20 How Oil Drives Inflation & the Fed's Next Move5:10 Today's Data: Jobs, Housing Starts & Import Prices7:20 What Buyers, Builders & Homeowners Should Do NowTOP RESOURCESTrack Mortgage Rates Automaticallyhttps://rw2.therateupdate.com/TRU Mortgage Command Centerhttps://command.therateupdate.com/TRU Debt Optimizerhttps://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/Mortgage Calculators & Toolshttps://stan.store/TRU-FoundationsFOLLOW THE RATE UPDATEYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrioInstagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdateTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdateDISCLAIMERDan Frio is a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states and Puerto Rico. NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender.This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #Homebuyers #Refinance
Is the housing market crashing? Mortgage rates, home prices in Austin, Memphis, Tampa, San Francisco, and San Antonio, plus this week's CPI, jobs report, and Federal Reserve outlook, all explained.The headlines say the housing market is crashing. So today I'm putting that to the test with the real numbers. Nationally, home listing prices are down 2.4%, but median home prices are actually up 3.2%. I break down which markets are falling the hardest (Austin, Memphis, Tampa, San Francisco, San Antonio) and which ones are still climbing (Providence, Indianapolis, Hartford, Virginia Beach, Chicago), then explain how the mortgage bond market, this week's CPI report, and the jobs numbers are shaping where mortgage rates go next.If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the crash, this is the video where I tell you exactly what to check before you make that call: your credit score, your down payment options, and what mortgage payment you actually qualify for.For more market breakdowns and data, check out the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog
Mortgage rates are moving after a big week of data. In this video I break down the new PPI inflation report, CPI, jobless claims, oil prices, and what it all means for your mortgage rate, plus what the Federal Reserve is likely to do at its next meeting.If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates go from here, this is exactly what I do every day for my own clients.
CPI came in right on point today, cooling core inflation to 2.5% year over year. Here's what today's inflation report means for mortgage rates, homebuyers, refinance timing, and where rates could head by the end of the day.
The Guild Mortgage Company wants to be your home loan lender. They do all types of mortgages; FHA, VA, USDA & Conventional. Guild Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender; NMLS 3274. Roy West NMLS 316801 Phone (409) 866-1901.
After 47 years at Hamilton Southeastern High School, recently retired teacher Janet Chandler joins Larry Lannan to reflect on a career that spanned an extraordinary period of growth and change in Fishers. Chandler recalls arriving at a largely rural HSE High School with about 500 students and watching it grow to nearly 3,500. She discusses teaching French and social studies, coaching the We the People and Mock Trial teams, and helping students learn how to research difficult questions and defend their own conclusions. The conversation also explores Chandler's years as president of the Hamilton Southeastern Education Association, changes to teacher collective bargaining in Indiana, teacher pay and retention, the value of public education, and her advice for educators entering the classroom today. This episode of the LarryInFishers.com podcast is sponsored by Citizens State Bank. Learn more about its business and personal banking options at https://www.mycsbin.com/larry. Citizens State Bank — Member FDIC and Equal Housing Lender.
Mortgage rates are in play today after a fresh jobless claims report moved the bond market. I break down what the Federal Reserve is watching, why continuing claims climbing back to 1.8 million matters for your rate, and what oil prices and the Iran ceasefire could mean if it breaks. If you are a homeowner or buyer trying to figure out where rates go next, this is the video for you.CHAPTERS 0:00 Breaking Jobs Report and What It Means for Mortgage Rates 1:45 The Federal Reserve and the Bond Market Explained 3:15 Jobless Claims Hit 1.8 Million 5:00 Oil Prices, the Iran Ceasefire, and Rate Risk 7:00 Fed Meeting Odds and My Mortgage Rate ForecastRead the full breakdown on today's numbers: https://therateupdate.com/blog
Mortgage rates are holding steady today even after a rough ADP jobs report showed only 44,000 private payroll jobs created, well below the 100,000 needed to keep the labor market on track. At the same time, stocks are soaring toward record highs, oil markets are reacting to another tanker strike tied to the Iran conflict, and the bond market is absorbing a massive wave of Treasury, corporate, and mortgage debt. In today's episode I break down why mortgage rates aren't moving despite all this noise, what the MBS (mortgage bond) market is telling us, and what the Federal Reserve is watching heading into their next meeting.CHAPTERS 0:00 Breaking News: Jobs Report Miss and Oil Tanker Strike 1:40 Only 44,000 Jobs Created, What It Means For Your Rate 3:20 Bond Market Explained: Treasuries, Corporate Debt and MBS 6:00 Stocks Soar, Oil Tanker Struck, Why Rates Aren't Moving 8:45 Fed Rate Cut Odds, Iran War Impact and What To Watch NextRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/the-daily-rate-update-august-5-2026-stocks-soar-but-rates-get-better
Mortgage rates are getting better today as oil drops to $77 a barrel and mortgage bonds trade up 17 ticks. In this video I break down why the Federal Reserve's 58% odds of a rate hike next meeting might not hold, how the Iran conflict is driving oil and inflation, and what this week's jobs data means for your mortgage rate.Read the full breakdown on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/stocks-are-soaring-today-so-why-arent-mortgage-rates-going-up
Mortgage rates, oil prices, and inflation just collided again. In this video I break down today's mortgage rate forecast, why oil crashing is moving inflation and interest rates, and what the Federal Reserve's next meeting could mean for your rate.If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out why rates move the way they do, this is the video that connects the dots. I walk through today's mortgage bond market chart, explain exactly how oil prices drive inflation and mortgage rates, and preview the economic data coming out this week that could push rates higher or lower.In this episode I cover: Why oil crashing is good news for mortgage rates and what could reverse it How oil prices, inflation, and interest rates are all connected This week's key economic reports: PMI, JOLTS, ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and the unemployment rate The Federal Reserve's current rate hike probability heading into the next meeting What I'm personally telling my clients right now about locking or floating their rate For more on how oil prices and inflation are shaping the mortgage market, check out my full breakdown on the blog: How Oil Prices Are Moving Mortgage Rates Right Now at therateupdate.com/blog
The Guild Mortgage Company wants to be your home loan lender. They do all types of mortgages; FHA, VA, USDA & Conventional. Guild Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender; NMLS 3274. Roy West NMLS 316801 Phone (409) 866-1901.
Mortgage rates are on the move after 3 Federal Reserve officials voted to hike rates this week, the largest dissent within the Fed since 1970. If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates are headed next, this is the update you need to watch.In this episode, I break down exactly why mortgage rates jumped to 6.77% today, why the Federal Reserve is split on hiking rates even as inflation cools, and why oil prices tied to the Iranian conflict are quietly driving Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher. I also walk through this week's economic data, next week's calendar, and what I'm personally advising my clients to do right now if they're under contract or thinking about locking in a rate.Here's what I cover:
Mortgage rates, Federal Reserve, inflation, PCE report, oil prices, Iran conflict, Dow Jones, mortgage rate forecast — here's what moved rates today and what the Fed does next.The Fed just came out and the mortgage bond market took a wild ride because of it. Inflation on the PCE report came in better than expected at 3.3%, jobless claims stayed low, and the Dow is nearing 52,000... but the Fed is still showing a 60% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting. On top of that, the oil war overseas is still raging and could send rates jumping if it escalates. In this video I break down exactly what's driving mortgage rates right now and what I'm telling my own clients to do about it. How to read the mortgage rate chart and what moved rates after the Fed's comments The PCE inflation report and why 3.3% matters Jobless claims, continued claims, and what they signal about the job market Oil prices, the Iran conflict, and how a jump to $120 a barrel could affect your rate Why the Dow is near 52,000 despite the ongoing conflict The Fed's 60% odds of a hike at the next meeting, and what I'm advising clients with a signed contract right now I go deeper on this in my blog post, Is the Fed About to Trigger a Mortgage Rate Shock?: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/is-the-fed-about-to-trigger-a-mortgage-rate-shockChapters:0:00 Intro – Inflation, Oil War & What the Fed Does Next 1:30 The Rate Chart – What Happened After the Fed's Comments 3:15 PCE Inflation Breakdown (3.3% Reading) 5:15 Jobs Data, Oil Prices & the Iran Conflict Risk 7:30 Dow Nears 52,000, Fed's 60% Hike Odds & Locking Your Rate
Mortgage rates are on edge today as oil prices spike and the Federal Reserve meets to decide what happens next with interest rates. I'm breaking down what's driving today's move and what it means for your rate.Today isn't a normal day. Iran struck another ship, oil jumped 6%, and the Federal Reserve is meeting this afternoon to figure out where the federal funds rate goes from here. I walk through the bond market, the inflation data, the jobs numbers, and exactly what I'm telling my own clients to do right now if they're under contract, sitting on the sidelines, or thinking about refinancing.In this video I cover: • Why oil prices jumping 6% in one day is hitting the mortgage bond market • What the Federal Reserve actually controls and how it ripples into your rate • The real CPI, PPI, and jobs numbers the Fed is watching this week • Why inflation is dropping when you strip out oil and energy • What I'm advising clients to do today: lock, wait, or holdRead the full breakdown on my blog: Fed Rate Call During a Global Crisis: Mortgage Rate Snapshot Today — https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/fed-rate-call-global-crisis-mortgage-rate-snapshot-todayAnd for more on where rates could head next: CPI Drops, Jobs Cool: Is a Fed Rate Cut Finally Coming? — https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/cpi-drops-jobs-cool-is-a-fed-rate-cut-finally-comingCHAPTERS 0:00 Oil spikes, Iran conflict, and today's Fed meeting 1:30 How the Federal Reserve actually controls rates 3:15 CPI, PPI, and the inflation data the Fed is watching 5:45 Jobs numbers and where the cracks are showing 7:30 What I'm telling my clients to do right now
Mortgage rates are holding steady heading into tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting, but oil sitting at $80 a barrel could change everything fast. Today I break down the jobs report, cooling inflation data, and why home prices are up 1.6% year over year despite the crash predictions.There's a 70% chance the Fed does nothing at tomorrow's meeting, but that's not the full story. Between a softening ADP jobs report, inflation numbers coming in cooler than expected, and oil prices tied directly to the ongoing conflict overseas, there's a lot moving underneath the surface that could shift your rate in either direction. Here's exactly what I'm watching and what I'm telling my own clients to do right now.
Mortgage rates today: oil prices drop to $84 a barrel, new tariffs hit the market, and the Federal Reserve meets in 2 days. Here's what it means for your mortgage rate, refinance, and home buying plans.
Larry Lannan talks small business profitability with Matt Nettleton, Indianapolis sales trainer and host of the Default Profitable podcast — nearly 190 episodes of stories from local businesses that make money the old-fashioned way. Plus: NYT writer Emi Nietfeld on Gen Z's crisis of ambition, how corporate consolidation is pricing families out of bowling, and a Colorado bear that spent the night honking an SUV horn. Sponsored by Citizens State Bank, Member FDIC, Equal Housing Lender — mycsbin.com/larry.
I used AI to rank every major housing market analyst since 2022 — who called the housing crash right, who got mortgage rate forecasts wrong, and where real estate is really headed in 2026. See how Logan from HousingWire, Realtor.com, and Zillow scored versus analysts still predicting a crash worse than 2008.Every day someone tells you exactly where mortgage rates and home prices are headed — but almost none of them go back and check if they were right. So I did. I ran the top housing market analysts and real estate YouTubers through AI, backdated the data to 2022, and scored who actually predicted housing correctly versus who's been calling for a housing crash worse than 2008 for four years straight.In this video I break down: The top-ranked housing market analysts since 2022 (HousingWire, Realtor.com, Zillow) The real estate influencers with the worst forecasting track record on mortgage rates and home prices Why "housing crash worse than 2008" predictions have failed for years Where my own mortgage rate and housing forecasts ranked What this means for homebuyers and homeowners deciding whether to buy, sell, or refinance in 2026
Oil hit $120 a barrel during the last Iran conflict. Today it's sitting around $80... during the SAME kind of conflict. That gap is the whole story for where mortgage rates go next, and I break down exactly why in today's video.I also walk through the two things the Federal Reserve actually cares about (inflation and jobs), what last week's data really showed, and why I'm telling you there's basically a 100% chance the Fed does nothing at next week's meeting. Then I get into what I'm personally telling my clients to do right now if you're under contract, or if you're planning to buy later this year.Stick around to the end, I show you the exact tools I use every single day to track this stuff myself, and how you can use them too.
The Guild Mortgage Company wants to be your home loan lender. They do all types of mortgages; FHA, VA, USDA & Conventional. Guild Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender; NMLS 3274. Roy West NMLS 316801 Phone (409) 866-1901.
Mortgage rates, inflation data, and Federal Reserve rate expectations all came together this week. Consumer inflation (CPI) and producer inflation (PPI) both came in negative, yet markets are still pricing in a possible Fed rate hike — Dan breaks down why the numbers and the Fed's next move don't seem to line up, what's coming next week before the Fed meeting, how oil prices tie into mortgage rates, and why he thinks rates could test their lows again soon.00:00 Intro: Why the Fed hike talk doesn't add up 01:35 This week's inflation and jobs data 03:45 What's coming next week before the Fed meets 05:45 Fed rate hike odds and closing outlook
The Guild Mortgage Company wants to be your home loan lender. They do all types of mortgages; FHA, VA, USDA & Conventional. Guild Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender; NMLS 3274. Roy West NMLS 316801 Phone (409) 866-1901.
The Guild Mortgage Company wants to be your home loan lender. They do all types of mortgages; FHA, VA, USDA & Conventional. Guild Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender; NMLS 3274. Roy West NMLS 316801 Phone (409) 866-1901.
The Guild Mortgage Company wants to be your home loan lender. They do all types of mortgages; FHA, VA, USDA & Conventional. Guild Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender; NMLS 3274. Roy West NMLS 316801 Phone (409) 866-1901.
The Guild Mortgage Company wants to be your home loan lender. They do all types of mortgages; FHA, VA, USDA & Conventional. Guild Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender; NMLS 3274. Roy West NMLS 316801 Phone (409) 866-1901.
The Guild Mortgage Company wants to be your home loan lender. They do all types of mortgages; FHA, VA, USDA & Conventional. Guild Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender; NMLS 3274. Roy West NMLS 316801 Phone (409) 866-1901.
Affordable housing is one of the biggest challenges facing communities today. But how does it actually get funded?In this episode of ChangeMakers, Katie Goar sits down with Jason Blain, Senior Commercial Banker at Independent Bank*, to break down how banks, developers, and public programs work together to create affordable housing.Jason shares a behind-the-scenes look at the real financial tools driving housing development, including tax credits, rate buydowns, and community partnerships. He also explains why homeownership still plays a critical role in building long-term wealth and stability.This conversation goes beyond theory. You'll hear how affordable housing projects come together, what slows them down, and what needs to change to scale solutions.*Independent Bank is a Member FDIC and Equal Housing Lender.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. It should not be relied upon as a substitute for consultation with qualified financial or legal professionals. Banking products, terms, rates, and regulations may vary and are subject to change. Please consult your financial institution or a licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.