Podcasts about consumer price index cpi

A Critical Week for Global Markets and the Federal Reserve Markets entered the week focused on two major developments: ongoing diplomatic discussions involving the United States and Iran, and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. Reports of progress toward a potential agreement between the United States and Iran have been welcomed by investors. News of a possible deal helped push oil prices lower and contributed to a positive response in equity markets. However, uncertainty remains, and investors should exercise caution until details are finalized and the broader implications become clearer. The decline in oil prices has also influenced interest rates, which moved lower as markets assessed the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions. While investors have responded favorably, recent history serves as a reminder that negotiations can shift quickly, and outcomes are never guaranteed until agreements are officially completed. Domestically, attention is centered on the Federal Reserve’s meeting under the leadership of Chairman Kevin Warsh. This marks his first meeting and press conference as Fed Chair, creating significant interest around how he intends to communicate monetary policy moving forward. Warsh has previously expressed concerns about excessive forward guidance, arguing that central banks should avoid becoming overly committed to future projections. Instead, he has advocated for a greater emphasis on current economic data when making policy decisions. Investors will be watching closely to see whether he introduces a more restrained communication style or gradually transitions the Fed toward a quieter approach. Another area of focus will be the relationship between the chairman and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While the chair plays an influential role, policy decisions are made collectively. Any signs of disagreement among committee members could offer valuable insight into future policy direction. With employment remaining strong and inflation continuing to present challenges, the Federal Reserve’s comments on inflation trends, geopolitical developments, and economic growth will be particularly important for markets. Inflation Remains a Key Concern Inflation remains one of the most closely watched economic indicators, and recent data suggests price pressures continue to persist. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in at 4.2%, higher than many economists had anticipated. While energy prices, particularly oil, have likely contributed to the increase, inflation remains elevated relative to the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Beyond the traditional CPI measure, another useful perspective comes from what Strategas Research Partners refers to as the “Common Man CPI.” This proprietary measure focuses specifically on essential household expenses, including food, energy, shelter, insurance, and children’s clothing. By emphasizing necessities rather than the broader basket of goods used in traditional inflation calculations, it attempts to better reflect the inflation experienced by everyday consumers. According to this measure, inflation currently stands at 4.6%, noticeably higher than the headline CPI reading. Since mid-2020, prices within the Common Man CPI have increased approximately 32%, compared to roughly 30% for headline CPI. The challenge for consumers is that wage growth has not fully kept pace. While wages have risen approximately 27.5% over the same period, inflation has exceeded those gains, creating ongoing pressure on household budgets. As policymakers evaluate future interest rate decisions, an important question remains: Are current inflation pressures temporary, particularly those tied to energy prices, or do they represent a more persistent trend? The answer will play a significant role in shaping future Federal Reserve actions. CEO Confidence and Consumer Strength Support the Outlook While inflation and global uncertainty remain concerns, several indicators continue to point toward resilience within the broader economy. One closely monitored measure is CEO confidence, which has improved in recent weeks. This indicator reflects how corporate leaders view economic conditions over the next 12 months and can provide valuable insight into future business investment and hiring decisions. Higher CEO confidence often translates into increased capital spending, stronger workforce expansion, and improved earnings expectations. Since corporate earnings remain one of the primary drivers of stock market performance, rising confidence among business leaders is generally viewed as a positive signal for future growth. Consumer spending has also remained remarkably strong despite elevated inflation. Consumers continue to play a critical role in supporting economic growth, and spending trends have remained resilient even as households navigate higher prices. Taken together, improving CEO confidence and continued consumer strength provides a constructive backdrop for both the economy and financial markets as the year progresses. Investors should continue monitoring developments in the Middle East, Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation trends, business confidence, and consumer spending. Each of these factors has the potential to influence markets in the months ahead, making it important to stay informed and maintain a long-term perspective amid ongoing uncertainty. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Deal or No Deal? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Can Apple Update the 16-Year-Old Siri? This week marked Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in Cupertino, California. One of the biggest storylines is Apple's effort to reinvent Siri, which many users now view as one of the least capable AI assistants on the market…   The Housing Market Is Finally Starting to Look Normal Again For the last several years, the housing market has felt anything but normal. Ultra-low mortgage rates, limited inventory, bidding wars, and rapidly rising home prices created an environment that left many buyers frustrated and many sellers expecting unrealistic prices…   Inflation Hits a Three-Year High, But the Details Tell a Different Story The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation rising 4.2% year-over-year, the highest reading since April 2023. At first glance, that sounds concerning. But a deeper look shows that the inflation story is being driven largely by a handful of categories, especially energy and travel…   How long will the AI buildout cycle really last? The market has rewarded virtually every company connected to AI infrastructure. Chip manufacturers, networking companies, power providers, cooling suppliers, data center REITs, and cloud providers have all benefited from an unprecedented surge in spending. But history tells us that every capital spending boom eventually slows…   SpaceX IPO Finally Come To the Market, Should You Buy Now?   Live Market Discussion!   Companies Discussed: Docusign, Inc (DOCU), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), and Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)  

Host Tara uncovers the reality behind the mainstream media's latest selective editing, breaking down Donald Trump's "I Love Inflation" comments and the context the networks left out. Analyzing the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers at 4.2%, Tara reveals that 60% of current inflation is driven purely by energy prices tied to the ongoing conflict with Iran. She outlines a 16-month economic report card under the current Trump administration, highlighting a $3,000 increase in adjusted median income, major reductions in food stamp fraud, and Department of Justice crackdowns on government looting. CPI inflation numbers, media bias, Trump economic report card, energy market crisis, median income growth, SNAP benefit fraud, political media spin, Department of Justice investigation

Voters in Maine have decided: controversy-plagued Democrat Graham Platner will face Sen. Susan Collins in the fall. Meanwhile in South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham defeated MAGA challenger Mark Lynch, avoiding a runoff election. And with a key inflation report due later this morning, Morning Money newsletter author Sam Sutton joins the Playbook Podcast to preview the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers and what they could mean for voters.  Follow POLITICO here:     ➤ X: https://x.com/politico/  ➤ Instagram:  / politico       ➤ Facebook:  / politico    For more news and analysis, subscribe to the Playbook newsletter: politico.com/playbook 

The Sacramento Public Library Authority Board of Directors met on May 28, 2026, to discuss the upcoming fiscal year budget, major challenges in library collection services, and several community milestones.   Friends of the Sacramento Public Library Update   Devon Graves, Vice President of the Friends of the library, reported a highly successful Big Day of Giving, which raised approximately $120,000, significantly exceeding the original $85,000 goal. He also highlighted the success of the "Booked-in" facility, which serves as a community hub for students and seniors. An "All Friends" meeting is scheduled for June 28, 2026, at the Carmichael Library.   Collection Services and Vendor Crisis   Michelle Gordon Hartman, Collection Services Department Manager, provided a "pull back the curtain" look at the massive administrative challenges caused by the sudden closure of Baker & Taylor, formerly the library's primary book vendor. Logistical Chaos: The library had to cancel and reorder tens of thousands of items and quickly onboard new vendors like Brodart and Ingram to ensure opening day collections for new branches were not delayed. Processing Complexity: The board learned about the intensive labor required for every item, including assigning call numbers, applying RFID tags, and creating complex bibliographic records. Digital Trends: Digital circulation is growing rapidly and is expected to break 5 million circulations this fiscal year. However, digital materials are significantly more expensive; for example, a $30 physical book can cost $80 in digital format and often comes with a limited two-year license. Operational Highlights and Construction Executive Director Peter announced that the library received an Epic Award for its new branding. He also highlighted the kickoff of the Summer Reading program on May 30th at Tahoe Park, featuring the theme "Read Freely". Construction projects for the Martin Luther King, North Sacramento Hagginwood, and Elk Grove libraries remain on schedule, with staff currently outfitting the King branch.   Fiscal Year 2026-2027 Budget   The Board approved the proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year, which includes $65.3 million in revenues and $69.3 million in expenditures. Deficit and Diversions: The budget reflects a $4 million net use of fund balance. This is largely attributed to a $2 million diversion by the City of Sacramento to fund construction projects and a $1.1 million structural deficit on the city's side. Measure E: Approved by voters in 2024, Measure E provides a stable property tax revenue stream that consolidates previous measures and is adjusted based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Staffing Changes: The budget includes a net reduction of 3 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) positions. While 10 full-time positions were added, 13 limited-term library assistant positions were eliminated due to city budget constraints. Future Concerns   The Board discussed long-term sustainability, noting that maintaining 12 branches within the City of Sacramento may become problematic after 2029-2030 if structural deficits persist. Directors engaged in a robust debate regarding the use of Economic Uncertainty Reserves, which are currently maintained at 17% for the city and 35% for the county. While the library is currently meeting its reserve requirements, members requested future policy discussions on how to handle potential "harder cut scenarios" if economic conditions do not improve.

The May 28, 2026, meeting of the Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD) focused on fiscal approvals, community-led emission reduction plans, legislative advocacy regarding state budget deficits, and a landmark report on regional air quality.   Fiscal and Administrative Actions   The Board approved the FY 2026-2027 Proposed Budget and Fee Schedule, which includes $49.6 million in revenues and $56.1 million in expenditures. A 2.72% fee schedule adjustment based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was adopted, effective July 1, 2026. Despite a projected $6.5 million use of fund balance—primarily from restricted revenue funds—the District maintains healthy reserves well above the required minimum.   South Sacramento Florin Community Emission Reduction Program (CERP) A major milestone was the adoption of the South Sacramento Florin CERP, marking the conclusion of a seven-year community-led development process. Community Impact: Steering Committee Co-lead Tito Hong highlighted the generational significance of the plan, noting that it moved from monitoring to actionable strategies to protect local children from air pollution. Next Steps: A celebration is scheduled for June 22, 2026, with the plan moving to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) for final action in July. A five-year implementation phase will follow, focusing on top-priority strategies such as community outreach and tree planting. Legislative and State Budget Concerns Representatives from ARC Strategies provided a briefing on the "mad house" of the state capital during budget negotiations. Budget Deficits: While a one-time $16.5 billion surge in revenue from "the artificial intelligence bubble" occurred, the state faces a long-term structural deficit that could reach $100 billion in the out years. Funding in Peril: Funding for AB 617 programs and the cap-and-invest program is currently in peril. Changes to program regulations could potentially zero out tier-three funding, which supports local air quality efforts. Opposition to SB 1075: SMAQMD is actively opposing SB 1075, arguing it would divert local resources and shift control of community emission reduction plans from local districts to CARB. Air Quality Trends and Clean Technology Air Pollution Control Officer (APCO) Alberto Ayala delivered a historic update on regional air quality: 25-Year Clean Air Milestone: Certified data from 2025 indicates that air in the Sacramento region is the cleanest it has been in the last 25 years for both ozone and particle pollution (PM 2.5). This improvement has occurred despite significant population and vehicle growth since 2000. Hydrogen Innovation: The District is promoting hydrogen internal combustion engine technology from Europe as a "sensible tool" for reducing carbon and greenhouse gas emissions without the high costs of full electrification. ACT Expo Insights: Board members reflected on the Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo, noting emerging trends like autonomous big rigs and shifting dynamics in the hydrogen technology market. Policy Debate: Electrification vs. Attainment   The meeting included a philosophical discussion regarding whether SMAQMD should follow the Bay Area's lead in mandating the electrification of appliances like water heaters. APCO Ayala cautioned against "super aggressive" rules, arguing that since the region is making steady progress toward federal air quality attainment, imposing the high costs of mandated electrification on residents may not currently be necessary or sensible.

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, which showed an increase of 3.8% from a year earlier, slightly higher than economists' expectations. The latest inflation figures represent the highest annual increase since May 2023, up from 3.3% in March. On a month-to-month basis, prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% after rising 0.9% in March. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% for the month, its highest pace since January 2025.Our latest Suspension of the Rules.Isaac, Ari and Kmele let loose a bit in today's episode, discussing Sen. Rand Paul's son hurling antisemitic remarks at Rep. Mike Lawler and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's possible political ambitions. Plus, what were some lessons the media should have learned from the Covid-19 pandemic?Check out the latest here!Ad-free podcasts are here!To listen to this podcast ad-free, and to enjoy our subscriber only premium content, go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠ and today's “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: How concerned are you about inflation? Let us know.Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by: Will Kaback and audio edited and mixed by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Lindsey Knuth, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bitcoin and ethereum prices have opened lower this morning following yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which detailed just how much the war in Iran is boosting energy costs.~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~iTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaul00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: iTrust Capital00:45 CLARITY tomorrow01:20 Sell the news?02:15 PPI worse than CPI03:20 BTC breaks 80k04:15 Trump arrives in China / meeting pressure05:50 Trump guest list07:00 CNBC: Beijing bottom line09:00 CNBC: Meeting expectations10:00 Next FOMC10:50 Arthur Hayes: US will inevitably print~V-Shaped Recovery Coming?

Just when markets thought inflation was cooling… the latest data says otherwise. In today's episode, we break down the newest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and what it means for the economy, the markets, and your portfolio. Inflation pressures appear to be heating back up—and that raises a major question: Have future rate cuts just been pushed further out? We'll dig into how the inflation data impacts expectations for the Federal Reserve, bond yields, equities, and risk assets. Because in today's market, inflation isn't just an economic number… it's the steering wheel for everything. But that's not all. We'll also dive into the escalating legal battle between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, as tensions around AI, control, and the future of OpenAI continue to spill into the courtroom. And to top it off, oil prices are surging again, adding another layer of inflationary pressure to an already nervous market. This is one of those moments where: inflation, AI, energy, and monetary policy are all colliding at once. Listen now:

Inflation, Wages, and the Global Impact of China Economic data released over the past two weeks has provided investors with important insight into the health of the U.S. economy and the potential direction of markets moving forward. One of the most significant reports came from the latest jobs data, which showed the U.S. economy added approximately 115,000 jobs. Even more encouraging, average earnings increased 3.6% year-over-year, coming in stronger than many economists expected and offering another sign of resilience in the labor market. While wage growth is a positive development for workers, the next key question is how much of those gains consumers actually get to keep after inflation. This week's upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports will be closely watched as investors look for clearer signs on inflation trends. These reports remain two of the most important measures of pricing pressures throughout the economy. Energy prices continue to play a major role in the inflation story. Elevated gasoline costs are forcing consumers to dedicate more of their budgets toward fuel expenses, leaving less available for spending in other parts of the economy. Investors will be watching carefully for any signs of “demand destruction,” where higher costs begin slowing consumer activity in other sectors. Adding to the importance of the week, President Trump is expected to travel to China for a high-profile meeting with President Xi Jinping. Discussions are expected to center around tariffs, trade cooperation, and geopolitical concerns involving Iran. Markets will be closely monitoring whether the two countries can make progress toward increasing trade activity between the U.S. and China, which could help ease inflationary pressures globally. China's own inflation data has shown rising pricing pressures, fueled in part by the conflict involving Iran and the impact on oil markets. As one of the largest buyers of Iranian oil, China's role in global energy demand remains significant. Any cooperation or policy shifts resulting from these meetings could influence inflation trends, energy markets, and employment conditions both domestically and abroad. With strong economic data already emerging, investors are now focused on how these global developments may shape the market outlook in the months ahead. Broadening Market Strength Supports Investor Confidence Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, elevated oil prices, and continued questions about Federal Reserve policy, the stock market has remained remarkably resilient. One of the key reasons for this strength has been the continued momentum in corporate earnings. Coming into the year, many analysts anticipated that market leadership would begin to expand beyond the large-cap technology companies that have dominated returns in recent years. That trend is now beginning to materialize, creating what many investors view as a healthier and more sustainable market environment. From January 1 through April 24, small-cap and mid-cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500, signaling stronger participation across a broader range of companies and sectors. This broadening market participation is an encouraging development because it reduces the market's dependence on a small group of mega-cap stocks to drive overall performance. A wider range of companies contributing to market gains can help strengthen the market's ability to navigate uncertainty, whether from geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, or shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Analysts also continue to forecast strong corporate earnings growth across multiple market segments, with some projecting record earnings levels by the end of the year. The combination of resilient earnings, improving participation across the market, and continued economic strength provides a constructive backdrop for investors moving forward. While uncertainty remains a constant factor in financial markets, the expanding strength beneath the surface of the market has become an increasingly positive sign for the remainder of the year. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post What's China Got to Do with It? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Inflation has hit its highest point since 2023, rising from 3.7 per cent to 4.6 per cent in March. New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released on 29 April 2026, shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.9 per cent, mostly driven by higher fuel prices linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In this podcast, SBS Hindi speaks with economist Devika Shivadekar about what this means for consumers and which key signals they should be watching to get a sense of where inflation is heading next.

Technology Sector and Market Valuations Recent market volatility has led to increased analysis across key sectors, particularly technology. For several years, there have been concerns that the technology sector was overvalued, raising the risk that a correction could negatively impact the broader market. However, recent market movements have helped reset valuations. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for technology stocks have declined significantly, from around 40 to approximately 20, bringing them more in line with the broader market. This shift is important because forward P/E is a key indicator used to assess whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued based on expected future growth rather than past performance. Despite this decline in valuations, earnings growth in the technology sector is still projected to remain strong, with expectations in the mid-teens or higher. This combination of lower valuations and continued earnings growth may attract new investment into the sector. As technology represents a significant portion of the overall market, renewed investor interest could help offset broader market weakness and support overall market stability. Inflation, Energy Prices, and Consumer Impact The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a notable increase in inflation during March, with a 0.9% rise month over month. A significant portion of this increase, more than three-quarters, was driven by an 11% surge in energy prices. While rising energy costs are impactful, it is important to understand how they affect overall consumer spending. When a larger share of income is allocated to fuel, consumers are often forced to reduce spending in other areas. This concept, known as “demand destruction,” occurs when higher prices in one category lead to decreased demand in others. This trend was evident in the most recent data. Outside of energy, a substantial number of goods within the CPI actually saw price declines, with roughly 40% of tracked items decreasing in price. Additionally, recent credit card spending data shows an overall increase in consumer spending, but a disproportionate share, about 40%, has been directed toward gasoline purchases. While consumers may temporarily absorb these higher costs, particularly with the support of tax refunds, the longer-term effect is reduced flexibility in spending. If elevated energy prices persist, this shift could lead to continued strength in the energy sector while creating weakness in other areas of the economy. Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Supply Risks Ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly involving Iran and the United States, continue to play a critical role in energy markets. While initial expectations suggested a short-term conflict lasting four to six weeks, and some de-escalation has occurred, no permanent agreement has been reached. As a result, attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Control and restrictions in this region have created ongoing uncertainty in oil distribution. Iran has demonstrated its ability to influence the flow of oil through the strait, at times limiting access while allowing selective shipments. Meanwhile, U.S. efforts to impose additional restrictions further complicate the situation. This dynamic creates the potential for reduced oil supply over an extended period. If these constraints persist, oil prices may remain elevated for longer than initially anticipated. This could further contribute to the demand destruction discussed earlier, as consumers and businesses continue to adjust to higher energy costs. The situation remains fluid, and its impact on both energy markets and the broader economy will depend on future geopolitical developments. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Energy Prices and Your Wallet first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Policy Uncertainty and Market Performance Uncertainty is often viewed as a negative force in financial markets. Periods of geopolitical tension, unclear government policy, or unexpected global events tend to create volatility and investor anxiety. Today's environment is no exception, with elevated uncertainty driven by international conflict, trade concerns, and shifting political dynamics. One way to measure this is through policy uncertainty indexes, which track how unclear or unpredictable government actions are at a given time. Historically, major spikes in uncertainty have occurred during events such as the aftermath of 9/11, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent global trade disruptions. Current readings suggest uncertainty levels are once again elevated, approaching some of those past peaks. However, market behavior during these periods may be more surprising than expected. While markets generally prefer stability, historical data shows that periods of high policy uncertainty have often been followed by strong returns across multiple timeframes, including one month, three months, six months, and even twelve months. This suggests that markets may interpret policy-driven disruptions as temporary rather than structural. In many cases, uncertainty creates opportunity, as investors who remain disciplined can benefit from eventual stabilization and recovery. While past performance never guarantees future results, this trend reinforces the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective during volatile periods. Inflation, Consumer Prices, and What Comes Next Inflation remains one of the most closely watched economic indicators, directly impacting both consumers and investors. Recent economic data has painted a mixed picture, strong in some areas, yet still uncertain in others. The labor market, for example, has shown resilience. Job growth has exceeded expectations, and wage increases have remained steady, indicating underlying economic strength. However, these figures are inherently backward-looking, reflecting conditions that existed before the most recent geopolitical and economic developments. The more pressing question is how rising costs, particularly energy prices, will ripple through the broader economy. Gas prices, often one of the first visible signs of inflation, play a critical role in determining whether higher costs will spread to other goods and services. This dynamic is closely monitored through the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. The key issue is not just whether prices are rising, but how quickly those increases are being passed on to consumers. Companies may choose to absorb higher costs temporarily, or they may pass them along, impacting inflation readings more directly. The upcoming CPI data will be especially important in determining the trajectory of inflation and, in turn, the direction of interest rates. Policymakers, including the Federal Reserve, will be watching closely as they evaluate whether current pressures are temporary or indicative of a more sustained trend. Seasonality and the Strength of April While uncertainty and inflation dominate headlines, historical market trends offer a more optimistic perspective, particularly when it comes to seasonality. Over the long term, the second quarter of the year has consistently delivered strong performance for equities, ranking just behind the fourth quarter. Within that period, April stands out as one of the most reliable months for market gains. Since 1950, April has been positive approximately 70% of the time for the S&P 500, making it the second-best month of the year historically. This pattern suggests that, despite short-term volatility, markets often find footing during this period. Several factors may contribute to this trend, including the inflow of tax refunds, renewed investor activity following the first quarter, and improving economic visibility as the year progresses. While seasonality alone should never drive investment decisions, it can provide a helpful tailwind when combined with other supportive factors. After a volatile start to the year, these historical patterns offer a measure of cautious optimism. If past trends hold, April and the broader second quarter could provide an opportunity for stabilization and potential growth. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post History, Please Repeat Yourself first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

A persistent structural challenge highlighted in this episode is the disconnect between technology investment and demonstrable business outcomes, which fuels operational inefficiency and accountability gaps in technology spending. As articulated by technology economist Dr. Howard Rubin, a common industry tendency is to measure IT success based on technology adoption or budget size rather than objective business results. This pattern is not limited to large enterprises but affects small and mid-sized organizations, many of which feel compelled to maintain “current” technology without clear evidence of operational or financial return. Primary evidence centers on the inadequacy of current macroeconomic indicators—such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—for assessing technology value and risk in smaller organizations. Dr. Rubin noted that official statistics and classic economic telemetry do not track the true inflation or productivity impact of technology stacks, particularly as hyperscalers invest trillions in infrastructure. The transcript highlights that price increases or capital recovery pressures in services like Microsoft Office or cloud platforms are likely to affect smaller organizations first, exacerbating operational risk and cost unpredictability. Supporting developments include analysis of flawed benchmarking practices, such as using IT spend as a fixed ratio to revenue or operating expense without examining enabling value or efficiency outcomes. Failure to contextualize technology investments can lead to counterproductive decisions, like arbitrary cost-cutting when IT as a percentage of expenses rises, ignoring possible operational savings or revenue lift driven by technology. Dr. Rubin advocates for pattern recognition and bespoke analysis over reliance on aggregated industry numbers, pointing out that mass market vendor investments and macroeconomic policy often obscure direct impacts at the SMB and MSP level. For MSPs and technology decision-makers, the operational implication is a heightened need to create internal technology inflation indices and track category-specific price pressures. Rather than relying on aggregate industry benchmarks or public economic data, service providers should establish tailored metrics to capture their own cost structures, labor pressures, and technology value. The discussion points toward the need for more deliberate accountability and ongoing evaluation—especially given that upstream price increases from hyperscalers and SaaS vendors are set to impact providers and their clients, with limited ability to negotiate at smaller scale.  

Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in at 2.4% inflation, right in line with expectations. On the surface that sounds like good news — inflation appears to be cooling.But now the Federal Reserve faces a major dilemma.• Inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2% target• The jobs market is starting to weaken• The bond market is reacting• Mortgage rates are still elevatedSo the big question becomes:Will this finally trigger interest rate cuts?In today's episode of The Rate Update, we break down:• The latest CPI inflation report (2.4%)• What the bond market is signaling• Where the 10-Year Treasury is heading• How mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are reacting• Whether the Fed may finally begin cutting rates• What this means for mortgage rates and the housing marketIf you're trying to decide:• Should I buy a house now or wait?• Should I lock or float my mortgage rate?• Are mortgage rates about to fall?• Is the housing market about to shift?This video will help you understand what's actually happening behind the headlines.No hype.No clickbait.Just real mortgage and economic data explained simply.

Overview: Tune in to this week's episode of Launch Financial as we break down the major developments that drove market volatility at the end of last week. We also look ahead to the key events shaping the markets in the days ahead, including earnings and updates from major retailers and tech companies, along with critical inflation data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Show Notes:

The first half of February delivered a wave of favorable economic data, painting a more optimistic picture for the start of the year than many analysts predicted. The combination of cooling costs and a resilient labor market provides a strong foundation for the housing sector as spring approaches.Inflation inched closer to the Fed's target of 2.0%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, the slowest pace since last May. Significant relief came from lower gasoline prices, a high-visibility win for consumer sentiment that provides immediate breathing room for household budgets.The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.5%, marking the lowest growth rate for this metric since April 2021. This suggests that the underlying inflationary pressures that have plagued the economy for years are finally stabilizing.January's labor market report outperformed expectations. Approximately 130,000 jobs were added in the month, and the 4.3% unemployment rate indicates a sturdy labor market. Paired with robust wage growth of 3.7%, renters and buyers alike are entering the year with stronger purchasing power than anticipated.The strength of job creation has been overstated in recent years, but if last week's report is accurate, it bodes well for an economy that had a lot of question marks heading into 2026.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Kevin talks about Mardi Gras (Fat Tuesday), the origin of bock beer, etc.; his thoughts and summary of the Daytona 500; 38 days from the Mid-America Trucking Show (MATS); on Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core Consumer Price Index; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.

Kevin talks about Mardi Gras (Fat Tuesday), the origin of bock beer, etc.; his thoughts and summary of the Daytona 500; 38 days from the Mid-America Trucking Show (MATS); on Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core Consumer Price Index; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin talks about Mardi Gras (Fat Tuesday), the origin of bock beer, etc.; his thoughts and summary of the Daytona 500; 38 days from the Mid-America Trucking Show (MATS); on Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core Consumer Price Index; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ilyce Glink, owner of Think Glink Media, joins Wendy Snyder, filling in for Lisa Dent, to talk about the Consumer Price Index (CPI). She covers where consumers are feeling financial relief, and where they aren’t.

Keith Paul of Good Egg Dining discusses the challenges and strategies of navigating the modern hospitality landscape, particularly in the Tulsa and Oklahoma City markets. Keith shares insights on the resilience of the restaurant industry, his philosophy of hands-on coaching and management, and the necessity of prioritizing human connection over "clunky" AI and automation in service. They also examine the economic pressures facing the industry, from minimum wage hikes in California to the rising Consumer Price Index (CPI), emphasizing that slow, intentional growth and a picky hiring process are key to long-term stability.Key Takeaways Industry Resilience: Despite revenue problems and national chaos, the restaurant industry remains one of the most resilient sectors. Coaching as Management: Keith's approach to leadership involves understanding the court (the business) and coaching people rather than just managing silos. Local Market Focus: Keith emphasizes the value of a deep local presence in Tulsa and Oklahoma City, managing multiple successful concepts within a specific neighborhood. Recruiting for "Smiles": Hiring should focus on innate hospitality traits—like a genuine smile and comfort with people—rather than just technical server skills. The AI Disconnect: Many current AI and robotic solutions in restaurants are still "clunky" and risk devaluing the human experience. Picky Growth: Success often comes from having no desire for rapid, uncontrolled expansion; instead, being picky about the team and locations ensures quality. Economic Pressures: External factors like the $20 minimum wage in California and general CPI increases are creating "scary" new realities for hospitality margins. Deep Customer Conversations: Moving beyond surface-level interactions to "deeper conversations" is essential for high-value enterprise wins. High-Fidelity Service: In an era of mobile apps and digital exposure, the fastest way to lose a customer is to neglect the "human" element of the mission

Market Update and Inflation Insights - January 13th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update, highlighting a 398-point drop in the DOW and smaller declines in the S&P and Nasdaq indices. The episode features an in-depth analysis of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating modestly above-target inflation at 2.7% year over year, with core inflation at 2.6%. Brian discusses the Federal Reserve's modestly restrictive policy stance amid current inflation rates and anticipates further inflation trends. He also addresses the potential impact of the Trump administration's announcement of $200 billion in Fannie and Freddie mortgage bond buying, expressing skepticism about its long-term benefits. The episode concludes with an invitation for listener questions and provides insights into upcoming economic indicators. 00:00 Market Overview and Daily Performance 00:41 Inflation Update and CPI Read 02:35 Fed Policy and Interest Rates 04:11 Government Interventions and Housing Market 05:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Is rent control destroying the housing market? In this seminar, we dive deep into why the current "CPI-based" rent increase formulas are a mathematical failure for income property owners. While policymakers use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it sounds "fair," it completely ignores the skyrocketing reality of operating rental housing in today's economy. We break down the "Perfect Storm" facing landlords:   The Insurance Crisis: Major carriers like State Farm and Farmers are canceling policies, leaving owners with premium jumps of 50% or more. The Utility Gap: Water, sewer, and trash rates are rising by 10–20% while rent increases are capped at a fraction of that. The Construction Spike: Why it now costs 30–40% more to replace a roof, repair a foundation, or upgrade electrical systems for safety. Hidden Taxes: Local parcel taxes, RSO fees, and business license costs that CPI never captures. What You'll Learn: The Birkenfeld Legacy: How a 1976 landmark case established rent control but also guaranteed a "just and reasonable return"—a promise currently being broken. CPI vs. Reality: Why a "basket of goods" like bread and clothing doesn't reflect the cost of copper piping, HVAC labor, and property taxes. A New Formula: We propose a shift toward Cost-Based Rent Adjustments to ensure the long-term survival of our housing stock. #RealEstateInvesting #RentControl #LandlordRights #PropertyManagement #HousingCrisis #CPI #InsuranceCrisis #CaliforniaRealEstate #IncomeProperty

Economic data, market trends, and retirement planning topics are often discussed without sufficient historical context. In this episode of the Money Matters Podcast, Wes Moss and Jeff Lloyd present an educational discussion that places recent economic releases and market observations within a long-term analytical framework. • Review the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) release by situating current inflation readings within more than 80 years of historical inflation data. • Examine the historical development of the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target by comparing it with observed inflation outcomes across multiple economic periods. • Discuss how recent government shutdowns delayed scheduled economic data releases and why temporary reporting gaps can affect short-term market narratives. • Explain commonly referenced employment metrics by outlining the differences between the household survey and the establishment survey used in labor market reporting. • Evaluate the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP), including prime working-age participation, as a frequently cited measure of labor market conditions. • Illustrate how year-over-year and multi-year inflation rates can demonstrate the compounding effect of price changes on purchasing power over time. • Compare historical inflation trends with long-term S&P 500 dividend growth to provide context on income-oriented equity characteristics. • Revisit balanced 60/40 portfolio performance in historical discussions to reinforce diversification as a commonly referenced investment framework. • Place the current bull market within a broader historical context by reviewing average cycle durations and the range of outcomes observed over time. • Observe market behavior following spring volatility, including changes in sector participation within the S&P 500. • Highlight ongoing public discussion around artificial intelligence and its potential role in productivity and efficiency across multiple economic sectors. • Review publicly reported fiscal stimulus expectations, including projected changes to tax refunds in 2026 and their possible macroeconomic implications. • Consider housing and real estate themes for the coming year by outlining economic and demographic factors commonly associated with market activity. • Summarize research-based observations on retiree well-being, including written planning approaches, engagement in meaningful activities, and social connection. For listeners seeking discussion about inflation, employment data, market history, and retirement planning concepts, this episode provides structured context grounded in long-term observations. Listen to the Money Matters Podcast and subscribe to stay informed about highly searched financial topics.

//The Wire//2300Z November 25, 2025////ROUTINE////BLUF: GDP DATA TO NOT BE RELEASED FOR Q3 2025. CORRUPTION CONTINUES IN MINNEAPOLIS. KHALISTAN REFERENDUM VOTE CAUSES CONCERN IN CANADA. PEACE TALKS MAKE GOOD PROGRESS IN UKRAINE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Europe: Peace talks continue between the United States and Russia. The White House has stated that so far, all sides have agreed to the bulk of the plan as written, however a few details still remain to work out. Otherwise, the war continues on, with a series of drone attacks being carried out by Russia overnight, some of which flew all the way to Moldova and Romania.Analyst Comment: The peace talks are closer to a deal than in recent memory, though as always some minor detail can derail things at the last minute. Even so, all sides confirm that pretty much all of the highly-controversial items have reached a point of agreement, so as it stands the major hurdles have been cleared regarding the signing of a peace deal.Canada: Yesterday the Khalistan Referendum vote was carried out nationwide, which resulted in terrorism concerns due to demonstrations present at polling places. This vote has come about as the Sikh community in Canada has desired the creation of a Sikh-only district (Khalistan) back in India, due to their cultural differences in India with other groups. As such, this vote was not anything organized by the Canadian government (none of these polling places were legitimate), this was purely a private endeavor to hold a non-binding vote on whether or not to create a new autonomous district within India.Analyst Comment: Beyond the obvious concerns with a diaspora being large enough to hold a vote on a district in another country entirely, the main issue is that this entire affair was organized by Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who is an activist currently characterized as a terrorist back in India. Many instances were reported of threats being chanted at voting events, which was cause for concern as the social issue of Sikh independence is a very vitriolic internal issue in India itself, which has now transitioned to Canada. Roughly 53,000 Sikhs are estimated to have participated in the vote.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - The White House announced yesterday afternoon that the GDP report for the third quarter of 2025 will also not be released, along with the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October. The reason provided by the White House is the same as the other reports which will not be released, namely that the government shutdown prevented accurate data from being collected.Analyst Comment: At this point, anything to do with the economy is either speculation or gambling, however these excuses are flimsy at best. Not releasing critical economic indicator data is being perceived as covering up something, so either way, it's probably not a positive indicator for the status of the economy.Chicago: The victim of the immolation attack from a few days ago has been identified as Bethany MaGee. She survived the attack and remains in critical condition, with severe burns affecting over half her body.Minnesota: Yesterday a judge overturned the conviction of Abdifatah Yusuf, who was convicted by a jury of gross Medicaid fraud for stealing roughly $7.2 million from the healthcare system, by running many different healthcare companies out of his residential address, all of which were fraudulent. The jury agreed with the prosecution in that he was clearly running a Medicaid overbilling scam, and he was convicted as such. Despite the overwhelming evidence that resulted in his conviction, Judge Sarah West threw out the jury's verdict, and acquitted Yusef herself.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: This case might shed some light on exactly how widespread fraud is in Minneapolis. Even when convicted b

//The Wire//2300Z November 12, 2025////ROUTINE////BLUF: FORD CARRIER STRIKE GROUP ARRIVES IN CARIBBEAN. APPLE ROLLS OUT DIGITAL ID. JOBS REPORT FOR OCTOBER NOT PUBLISHED DUE TO GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Caribbean: Overnight the USS GERALD FORD (CVN-78) arrived in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility, and is expected to be in position to carry out operations in theatre within a couple of days.Analyst Comment: Venezuela continues wartime preparations, same as before, with various internal militia and homeland defensive efforts being publicized over the past few weeks. Most of these efforts appear to mostly be just for show, but preparations continue all around nonetheless.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - This afternoon the White House stated that a handful of financial reports for the month of October might not be released due to the government shutdown. Press Secretary Leavitt stated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and various other jobs reports might not ever be released for last month, due to federal employees not being on the job to gather the data at the time in which it was most valuable (the data needed to make the jobs reports accurate must be gathered in real time throughout the month, and not in retrospect).Analyst Comment: At a time where the White House is facing increased scrutiny, this isn't a great omen since this is extremely important financial data to consider on the general state of the economy. Economic indicators are also a data point to consider even in the world of national defense, to set conditions and expectations on the homefront before a military campaign, for instance. Now, right at the crux of major economic concerns, the data simply isn't available because federal workers stopped doing their jobs during the shutdown. The data probably does exist, but by the time it's compiled and released it will be stale, and we'll be on to the next crisis.USA: This morning Apple announced the release of a Digital ID product, intended to digitize identification documents such as American passport data. The plan involves partnering with the Transportation Security Administration to integrate Digital ID efforts into air travel around the United States.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Apple's efforts are not to create a universal new identification scheme, but rather to digitize identity documents that already exist. TSA in particular has already had their own varying levels of subscription-based identity-check procedures for a while now, so in the grand scheme of things this has been coming for a long time. Of course, any Digital ID effort requires universal acceptance to work. It is not the ability to save an ID on one's phone that is new...it's the widespread adoption in such a short period of time that is the more concerning detail. This, coupled with the note that this is set up within the Apple Wallet ecosystem, has caused even more eyebrow-raising since it's not a huge jump to speculate that this ID scheme will be linked to finances at some point.In this case, Apple announced that this plan is already streamlined to work with TSA for air travel at over 250 airports around the nation. This plan was announced about two weeks ago, so in just that time, we've gone from announcement to implementation to full integration with TSA in ways that haven't really been done before. Individual states are also partnering with Apple to integrate their Driver's Licenses into the app, and 12x states/territories have done so already. As such data security concerns have abounded...while Americans have been watching the developments of a Digital ID system being implemented in the United Kingdom, a very similar system was being worked on here at home. But because it's a private company digitizing already-existing documents, less attention has been placed o

A new episode of Money Wise this week dives into a record-setting week on Wall Street, where all three major indexes pushed higher despite political gridlock in Washington - wiith the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all closing at new all-time highs. Despite the government shutdown stretching toward record length, the markets showed little concern, illustrating that investors remain focused on earnings and fundamentals rather than politics. The conversation turns to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in slightly cooler month over month, reaffirming hopes that inflation continues to trend in the right direction. The Money Wise guys debate whether the Federal Reserve's long-standing 2% inflation target is still realistic, pointing out that historical averages suggest 3% may be a more natural long-term level. They also examine continued challenges in housing, where higher mortgage rates and nervous buyers have led to slower activity, but emphasize that overall consumer sentiment remains surprisingly resilient. The guys also tease an upcoming discussion on gold's rapid rise and why investors should approach the “shiny metal” with caution despite its strong recent performance. A Goldilocks Market  A “Goldilocks market” describes an economy that's not too hot and not too cold, one where growth is steady, inflation is manageable, and the Federal Reserve isn't under pressure to raise or cut interest rates dramatically. This balance creates an environment that's often ideal for investors, as companies can grow earnings without the headwinds of high borrowing costs or runaway inflation. In weeks like this, when market data comes in “just right,” it reassures investors that the economy remains stable, supporting confidence and momentum in both stocks and broader market sentiment. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys explore RIA vs. Broker. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

The Money Wise guys start the show with a rapid-fire market update for the week just passed. The group recap a strong week for Wall Street, with all three major indices closing at record highs despite the ongoing government shutdown. The Dow climbed more than 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ each gained over 1.5%, proving once again that the market is more interested in fundamentals than political headlines. The guys discuss how the markets shrugged off the lack of economic data releases due to the shutdown, even treating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, slightly cooler month over month but 3% year over year, as a “Goldilocks” number. The conversation turns to the Federal Reserve's long-debated 2% inflation target, questioning whether it's time to move the goalpost closer to 3%, given historical averages and the structure of the current economy. They also touch on challenges within the housing market, including rising mortgage rates, mismatched buyer and seller dynamics, and growing hesitancy among potential homeowners. Despite negative sentiment and political noise, the market's resilience and steady climb reflected continued confidence in the broader economic backdrop. A Government Shutdown Despite the ongoing government shutdown, the markets have remained largely unfazed. Historically, short-term shutdowns have had minimal long-term effects on stocks, as investors tend to focus on broader economic fundamentals rather than temporary political disruptions. While a prolonged shutdown could delay key economic data releases, creating uncertainty for policymakers and analysts, it doesn't directly halt private-sector activity or corporate earnings growth. In fact, markets often view the lack of government data as a pause in potential bad news, allowing momentum to continue. Overall, unless the shutdown begins to meaningfully affect consumer spending or confidence, its impact on the market is expected to be limited. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys share The Best Investment Advice Ever . You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

This week, Collin Martin sits in for Liz Ann Sonders. Kathy Jones and Collin discuss the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut. They analyze the current state of the credit markets, particularly focusing on recent defaults and the implications for high-yield bonds. The discussion also covers the demand dynamics in private-versus-public credit markets and the potential risks associated with high-yield investments. Finally, they look ahead to upcoming economic indicators and the challenges posed by a lack of data.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality (junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer's continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index- Measures the performance of the US Dollar-Denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. It is a market-value weighted index.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1025-02S5) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins delve into the upcoming week in finance, focusing on earnings reports and the anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. They discuss notable companies such as Netflix, Taiwan Semi, and Tesla, analyzing their performance and potential market impact. The conversation covers inflation's structural issues, policy drivers, and CPI's influence on market volatility. AI and its implications for companies like Google and Tesla are debated, along with predictions on the Fed's actions and housing market trends. The podcast closes with reflections on potential market risks and the overarching influence of AI investments. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Let's go back to macroeconomics class!   In this episode of Financial Clarity for Doctors, hosts Rachelle Vanderzanden and Corey Janoff discuss the basics of inflation.  Why do prices continue increasing?  We'd rather pay 25 cents for milk too!  Unfortunately, capitalism and supply and demand make price stability pretty much impossible.  And that's not always a bad thing.  Some Basics on Inflation:  Generally measured in the United States by something called the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which tracks the costs of goods and services.  Sky-rocketed coming out of covid times with supply chain issues, cheap money (low interest rates), a tight labor market which generally means higher pay, and stimulus funds.  Lots of demand because people had money, but supply was low, so prices went up.  Now hovering around 3%, but still dealing with the effects of large increases over the past few years.  Wages generally increase over time, which is another upward pressure on price through supply and demand.  The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to keep inflation in check and keep unemployment low.  That does NOT mean zero inflation.  They have a target inflation rate of 2%.  One of the biggest ways they do this is by increasing interest rates, therefore making it harder for people to purchase things they would need to finance.  To protect against inflation:  Keep short-term savings in something like a high-interest savings account where you can earn interest.  Negotiate pay increases based on your cost of living.  Retirement money should be invested so that it has a chance to grow and outpace inflation – although we know this is not a guarantee, inflation is the bigger risk to long-term money.  Inflation is a part of the global economy!  We can't get rid of it, so the best we can do is protect our personal finances as best we can from its effects.  Listen to the full episode to hear more.  For more financial planning tips from Corey and Rachelle, you can reach out to them at podcast@thefinitygroup.com. They would love to hear your questions and ideas for upcoming episodes.    Discussions in this show should not be construed as specific recommendations or investment advice. Always consult with your investment professional before making important investment decisions. Securities offered through Registered Representatives of Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Finity Group, LLC and Cambridge are not affiliated. Cambridge does not offer tax or legal advice. 

In this week's episode, we break down the factors and trends shaping the economy, including new reports that shed some light on labor and inflation. Expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve at next week's Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) appear to be the main driving force behind movements in fixed income and equities. Please join us on Thursday, September 18, where we'll sit down with experts in Artificial Intelligence during our National Call: AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know. And be sure to tune in again next week, where we'll recap the news from this highly-anticipated FOMC meeting, and anything else impacting the markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:16 – We consider a softening labor market as evidenced by an increase in weekly initial unemployment claims and the semi-annual update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics detailing a correction of over 900,000 fewer jobs in the 12-month period ending in March 2025 than was initially reported.03:42 – The Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a slight decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated higher-than-expected month-over-month and year-over-year inflation, driven mainly by food and shelter costs.04:48 – The Fed seems poised to resume interest rate cuts with next week's FOMC meeting, as fears of making a policy error dissipate as rising (but not accelerating) inflation and a cooling jobs market create an opportunistic environment for rate cutting.06:40 – Treasuries show demand and momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting, with the 2-Year Treasury yield hitting 3.55% and the 10-Year around 4.06%.11:04 – Equities buck the historical norm of taking a downturn this time of year, buoyed by expectations of rate cuts and record investments in tentpole industries like Artificial Intelligence in an apparently non-recessionary climate.14:08 – A brief look into what's happening with resilient crude oil prices and early stimulation in the housing market.16:11 – We revisit our predictions for 2025 that were made late last year, and gauge how accurate they have been thus far. Additional Resources9/18 Webinar: Key Wealth's National Call - AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to KnowKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe entire green new scam has failed, take Spain for instance the grid cannot function correctly with wind and solar power. The Fed is screwed no matter what they do, if they drop the rates Trump is right, if they keep the rates the same and the economy degrades, Trump was right again. The [DS]/Obama are trying to start a civil/race war. Obama set the narrative. The evidence is pointing to a professional who has had training or an individual who trained just for this moment. This was planned to assassinate Charlie and not a mass shooting. The [DS] wants the conservative agree. The rifle that was left behind just so happen to say trans life matter. This divide and cause anger. This is the shot heard around the world. United we are stronger not divided.   Economy Spain's Power Grid In One Chart: Net Zero Drive Pushes Economy Toward Paralysis Days before the media celebrated Spain's first full weekday powered entirely by renewables in late April, the unthinkable happened: the grid collapsed, triggering a nationwide blackout. The incident served as a stark reminder to other Western nations, including 'America First' folks, that overreliance on intermittent sources, such as solar and wind, creates not just grid fragility but also a national security risk. A new report from El País, citing data from the Association of Electric Power Companies (Aelec), based on data published by Iberdrola, Endesa, Naturgy, and EDP, warned that Spain's peninsular power grid is severely overstretched and unable to absorb additional demand. In fact, most of the country's electricity hubs have already reached their limits. Aelec data showed that 83.4% of all these power nodes in the Spanish grid are at full capacity and can no longer accept new connections. Most regions in Spain have limited spare grid capacity to accommodate new energy demand without compromising the system's stability.   The problem of grid capacity shortages arises as Europe's overreliance on intermittent sources, such as wind and solar, has left the continent's energy grid vulnerable. Source: zerohedge.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1966123629256609899 The Federal Reserve primarily uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index as its key inflation indicator when deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates, with a target of 2% annual inflation over the longer run. This measure is preferred over alternatives like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it provides a broader view of household spending patterns and accounts for changes in consumer behavior, such as substituting goods when prices rise. For policy decisions, the Fed often emphasizes the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices to better gauge underlying inflation trends While the Fed monitors other indicators like CPI for a fuller picture, PCE remains the benchmark guiding rate adjustments Political/Rights   https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/1966120051272036814  … It's not just coming from one side.” Absolute bullshit. A). January 6th was a fake setup by the Democrats and Americans were protesting a stole...

Market Volatility and Inflation Insights: A Mid-Week Market Recap In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida, with a mid-week market update recorded on Wednesday, September 10. The recap highlights mixed performance across markets as a result of the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, which showed a surprising decline of 0.1% against the expected 0.3% increase. The DOW fell by 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registered minor gains and flat performance, respectively. The segment also delves into the significant decrease in year-over-year inflation rates and previews upcoming key economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims. Additionally, the script addresses concerns regarding high market valuations and the prudent approach to market exposure. Brian also references historical market behavior to caution against rash decisions based on short-term indicators. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:56 Producer Price Index and Market Reactions 02:13 Upcoming Economic Indicators 02:25 Labor Market Insights 03:07 Valuations and Market Strategies 05:52 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Signal Beneath the Noise Serious operators obsess over the next print, but my podcast/YouTube guest this week, Bankrate senior economic analyst, Mark Hamrick, argues the industry is missing the structural signals that actually set the cost of capital and shape demand.   Start with this premise: Data credibility is a macro variable.   When the quality of national jobs and inflation statistics is questioned, it is not just an esoteric Beltway quarrel; it becomes a pricing input for Treasuries and, by extension, mortgages, construction loans and exit cap rates.   As Hamrick puts it, the path to good decisions for households, enterprises and policymakers ‘is lined by high quality economic data, most of which is generated by the federal government.' Hamrick's concern is not theoretical. He links the chain plainly: if markets doubt the numbers guiding the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, you can ‘envision a scenario where there's less demand for our Treasury debt,' forcing higher yields to clear supply – an economy‑wide tax that lifts borrowing costs from mortgages to autos and narrows the Fed's room to maneuver.   What Happens If Trust Erodes? The near‑term catalyst for this anxiety is unusual: the Labor Department's head statistician was fired after unfavorable revisions, and an underqualified nominee has floated ideas as extreme as not publishing the data at all. Hamrick's advice for investors and executives is simple: pay attention. This may not break the system tomorrow, but it introduces risk premia where none previously existed.   Through a real estate lens, the translation is straightforward.   Underwriting already contends with volatile inputs on rents, expenses and exit liquidity; add a credibility discount on macro data and your discount rate moves against you. Prudent sponsors should stress‑test deals for a modest upward shock in base rates – an echo of Hamrick's ‘economy‑wide tax' – and consider how thinner debt markets would propagate through construction starts and refis.   Housing's Lock‑In: Inventory, Not Prices, Is the Release Valve The ‘lock‑in effect' remains the defining feature of U.S. housing. Owners sitting on sub‑3% mortgages are rationally immobile, starving resale inventory and suppressing household formation mobility, a dynamic Hamrick equates with today's ‘no hire, no fire' labor market: stable but sluggish churn. Builders fill some of the gap, but affordability remains constrained by national price firmness and still‑elevated mortgage rates relative to the pandemic trough.   What happens if mortgage rates dip to 6.25% or even 5.5%? Don't expect a binary ‘unlock.' Hamrick argues for incremental improvement rather than a light switch: lower rates would expand qualification and appetite gradually, and, crucially, free inventory. He is less worried that cheaper financing simply bids up prices; the supply response from would‑be sellers is the more powerful margin effect.   For operators underwriting for‑sale housing (build to rent or single-family home developments), the tactical read is to focus on markets where latent move‑up sellers dominate and where new‑home concessions currently set the comp stack. He also reminds us of the persistent, national‑level truth: prices have been unusually firm for years; in the U.S., homeownership is still the primary path to wealth – advantage owners, disadvantage non‑owners.   Wealth Transfer: Inequality In, Inequality Out The widely cited $84 trillion Boomer‑to‑GenX/Millennial wealth transfer via inheritance won't repair the middle class. It will mainly perpetuate asset inequality: assets beget assets, and the recipients most likely to inherit are already nearer the ‘have' column. That implies continuing bifurcation in housing demand (prime school districts, high‑amenity suburbs) alongside a renter cohort optimizing for cash‑flow goals rather than equity growth. For CRE, that supports a barbell: high‑income suburban nodes + durable rental demand where incomes grow but deposits lag.   Renting Without Shame and the Budget Reality Check Hamrick is refreshingly direct: there is no shame in renting as, perhaps, there used to be. For many households, renting is a rational bridge to other financial goals; build emergency savings, avoid surprise home maintenance expenses, and keep debt service from getting ‘too far out over your skis.'   For CRE owners, this fortifies the case for professionally managed rental product with transparent total‑cost‑of‑living and flexible lease options. For lenders, it argues for cautious debt-to-income ratios and expense reserves in first‑time buyer programs.   Tariffs, Inflation, and the New Dashboard Hamrick closes with a monitoring list to stay on top of dominant economic trends: labor market strength (monthly employment; weekly jobless claims), the inflation complex (Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE)), and the full housing tape (mortgage rates, existing/new sales, builder confidence, starts) plus, of course, one political‑economy input now impossible to ignore: tariffs, with the effective rate at the highest level since the Great Depression.   For CRE, tariffs are not an abstract: they seep into materials costs, fit‑out budgets, and the headline inflation path that steers the Fed. Sponsors should build tariff scenarios into Guaranteed Maximum Price (GMP) contingencies and model procurement alternates.   Actionable Takeaways for CRE Professionals Price a credibility premium: Run sensitivities for higher Treasury yields if data trust wobbles; Pay attention to how easily the government can sell its debt and the extra yield investors demand on longer bonds. Both shape interest rates, which then filter into real estate cap rates. Underwrite inventory elasticity, not sticker shock: As rates ease, model inventory release ahead of price spikes; focus on submarkets with pent‑up sellers. Lean into renting's rationality: Product that aligns with household cash‑flow priorities will capture durable demand while affordability resets. Track tariffs as a construction line‑item and macro tailwind to inflation: Feed this into budgets and hold periods. My conversation with Mark really brought home how connected real estate is to the bigger capital markets picture. If you want a sense of where cap rates are heading, keep an eye on the bond market – because that's where the story starts.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Get plugged into the conversations shaping today's markets and retirement strategies on the Money Matters Podcast with Wes Moss and Connor Miller. This week's episode packs timely economic insights with practical planning concepts to help you approach financial decisions with clarity and confidence. Examine key economic signals ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and consider potential effects from shifting interest rates. Compare the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) to better understand what current inflation data may indicate for household budgets. Interpret the VIX “Chill-ometer” to understand today's market volatility readings and their possible implications for investors. Assess how tariffs can influence inflation and why certain price changes could be temporary. Follow the path of rising producer costs to the checkout counter with clear, everyday examples. Review which categories—such as groceries, utilities, and textbooks—are experiencing the largest price increases this year. Outline the pillars of income investing, including multi-asset approaches, withdrawal rates, dividend growth, the dry powder principle, and tax efficiency. Discuss the 4% withdrawal guideline as one possible framework within retirement planning. Highlight how dividend growth may contribute to increasing income potential over time, including the concept of “yield on original cost.” Explain the role of dry powder, or safety assets, in navigating market downturns. Explore portfolio approaches that take tax efficiency into account, such as asset location and tax-loss harvesting. Stay informed with the Money Matters Podcast, where current market developments meet practical retirement planning perspectives. Listen now and subscribe to keep up with the conversations that can shape your financial thinking.

This week on Money Wise, the conversation opens with a strong recap of Wall Street's numbers: the Dow rose 771 points (1.7%), the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the NASDAQ added 0.8%. Year-to-date, all three indexes continue to show solid progress, led by the NASDAQ at 12%. The first half of the show drills into economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), and how the headlines don't always tell the full story. While media outlets linked tariffs to inflation, a deeper look revealed that service costs, not goods, were the main driver. The second half shifts to estate planning, stressing the importance of properly setting up beneficiaries and keeping account details up to date. The Money Wise guys underscore that life can change unexpectedly, and neglecting these “housekeeping” steps can create unnecessary difficulties for loved ones later. With decades of client experience, the message was clear: proactive planning today can help prevent avoidable challenges tomorrow. The True Driver of Inflation While headlines often point to energy or food prices, the real engine behind today's inflation sits in the services sector. From healthcare and housing to travel and dining, service costs continue climbing, even as goods prices cool off. This stickiness makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to tame inflation, since services are driven more by wages and consumer demand than by supply chains or commodity swings. That's why markets are watching these numbers so closely: they reveal the deeper pressures keeping inflation alive beneath the surface. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys give listenters a peek into what Wall Street Won't Tell You. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders dive into the latest economic data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. They analyze the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and assess the risk of latent stagflation. They also examine the Fed's dilemma in considering a September interest rate cut, a possible 50-basis-point reduction, and ongoing labor market and inflation pressures. Kathy and Liz Ann stress the importance of looking beyond headline figures to understand revisions and underlying economic trends. They also address recent changes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and their potential impact on the reliability of economic data. Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Technical analysis is not recommended as a sole means of investment research.Diversification, asset allocation, and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.This information is not a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager, Estate Attorney) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0825-YCMU)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI; the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index; Kevin has the details, looks at the data, digs through the information, puts it all into historical perspective and offers his insights, as well as an opinion or two. Crude oil and gas prices reacts to the U.S. and China extending the tariff pause until November, upcoming Trump-Putin talks on Friday, the CPI and Core CPI, OPEC upgrading the 2026 oil demand growth forecast and the anticipated Energy Information Agency report.

Market Rally and Economic Indicators: August 12th Update In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel discusses the significant market rally on August 12th, with the Dow closing 483 points up and the S&P and Nasdaq also seeing gains. The episode covers a fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing minimal change in inflation, which has led to increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Sitel also discusses predictions for future rate cuts, the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, and the anticipated September non-farm payroll report. Additionally, recession odds have decreased significantly, now less than 20%. Finally, a better-than-expected small business optimism survey is highlighted. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:55 Inflation and CPI Data Analysis 01:36 Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Predictions 02:43 Upcoming Economic Reports and Market Sentiment 03:04 Recession Odds and Data Sources 04:16 Small Business Optimism and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has escalated his criticisms of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over Powell's decision to maintain interest rates at current levels. The comments follow reports that Trump is considering removing Powell from his position, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the administration has begun vetting replacement candidates. Separately, on Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed prices rising faster than in May. The report added to existing concerns from economists and lawmakers that President Trump's tariffs would be inflationary, a possibility that Powell has cited as his rationale for holding off on cutting the Fed's interest rate.Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today's “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.Take the survey: What do you think about cutting rates or removing Powell as Fed chair? Let us know!Disagree? That's okay. My opinion is just one of many. Write in and let us know why, and we'll consider publishing your feedback.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by: Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Hunter Casperson, Kendall White, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Whether we're considering domestic or international equities, market movements and valuations seem to be reflecting sentiments rather than underlying fundamentals. Moving into the second half of 2025, it's crucial to look beyond inflated valuations and seek pockets of opportunity that offer both value and quality.In this episode, Matt and Emily talk to podcast host John P. Bryson about how investors can navigate today's volatile market even as economic slowdown worries persist. Here's a sneak peek into the conversation.1 What's U.S. economic data indicating?Matt: The employment picture is still holding up okay, with monthly job gains of about 150,000. Initial jobless claims have come up a little bit but are still at a low level historically. Overall, it's not amazing growth, but it's not too slow either. It seems like no one's appreciating the slowdown in inflation, but the data's showing it. In our view, some of the current market movements may have rotation or opportunities presenting themselves because the U.S. economy's holding up all right.2 How is the bond market reacting to U.S. economic data?Emily: Bonds aren't getting the memo as it relates to the macro backdrop. Normally, you would think that bond yields would be falling meaningfully as inflation comes down. We're not really seeing that. We're sort of chopping around in the 4.50%-ish range.Housing, for example, is a critical component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). There is a lot more housing supply coming online, and that is bringing inflation to the lowest level since 2021.1 That's a really notable dynamic that is just not being picked up by the bond market right now.3 What should investors focus on for the second half of 2025?Emily: We want to be careful about chasing risk here. We need to think about where we can find value. Where can we find the best earnings growth on a relative basis? Where can we find parts of the market that are on sale? We want to be careful about not getting pushed into momentum-driven areas of markets that are just rallying on sentiment.1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture As time goes on the people now can see the green new scam was a hoax, Bernie Sanders flies on private jet and Hawaii sues oil industry but spares refinery because they donate to the D party. Inflation is down, the fake news and the Fed were wrong. Trump once again calls on the Fed, he has now boxed them in.Transition to a people's economy is happening. The [DS] has lost all power. Trump has now signaled that he has the power and that the old guard has failed and it in the process of being replaced. What we are witnessing the forced exposure of the corrupt system, the people are seeing it. Now the offensive begins and those who were treasonous to this country will be held accountable. Checkmate. Economy https://twitter.com/mkhammer/status/1921181550239993909 https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1922302004904280481 https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1922270983534129248 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");   https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1922270583930167754 The inflation rate in the United States for April 2021, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 4.2% over the 12 months from April 2020 to April 2021 TRUMP ECONOMIC UPDATE: Inflation Drops to 2.3%, Lowest Since 2021, and US Treasury Records Second Biggest Surplus in History Thanks to Trump's Record Tariff Revenues  https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1922268438912798730   https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1922277662560526415?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1922277662560526415%7Ctwgr%5E9a0647d641b176e03f79d37607411d8da3baf9a9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F05%2Ftrump-economy-update-inflation-drops-2-3-lowest%2F   Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1922021412983730442 https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1922286454119829804 https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1908318952838594601 @Taylor47 political class didn't do anything about it—they allowed it to happen!" @USTradeRep"The goal very clearly was to remove U.S. tariffs and trade barriers to make it easier for people to outsource to China." TAKE A LISTEN Trump Just Got Britain To Hit China, UK Politicians Say  British politicians are expressing alarm that the new U.S.–UK trade deal gives President Donald Trump the power to block Chinese investments in critical British infrastructure. The deal announced last week requires the UK to “promptly meet U.S. requirements” to shield supply chains and “relevant production facilities” from foreign investment. If the European country does not meet these requirements, the U.S. can reimpose tariffs, effectively using trade pressure to dictate which countries can invest in the UK's core infrastructure. That clause triggered immediate backlash from British lawmakers and media, who say the U.S. now has a de facto “veto” over foreign investment — specifically Chinese money flowing into the UK's steel and aluminum sectors.   “Washington wants the UK and others to peel away from Chinese trade and investment, especially in sensitive areas like steel,” said Allie Renison, a former trade official, speaking to the FT. Source: dailycaller.com

Episode 3 – This Economic Shift Could Hit Your Job—and Your Budget Not every part of the economy reacts the same way to a crisis. Some sectors take the brunt of it. Others benefit. And understanding who's winning and who's losing can give you a better handle on what's coming next—for the market and for your own finances. In this episode, we break down: How different sectors are reacting to the current wave of tariffs and inflation Why sector rotation—when investors shift money between industries—is happening right now What the Consumer Price Index (CPI) really tells us about inflation (and what it doesn't) Which sectors may actually benefit from Trump's new tariffs, including U.S. agriculture, auto manufacturing, and discount retail Then we bring it home: How to start funding your emergency fund by identifying flexible vs. fixed expenses Why this is the right moment to tighten up your budget—even if your income hasn't changed The economy is changing. The market is adapting. And your personal finances can too—with a little strategy and a little calm. Watch new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday at 2 PM ET on YouTube or LinkedIn. You can also subscribe to The Pete the Planner Podcast wherever you listen.

Is the government manipulating inflation data? Why do so many people feel like their personal costs are rising faster than official inflation numbers suggest? In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we dive deep into one of the most debated and misunderstood economic topics: inflation. Today, we are joined by Andrew Barclay, an economist and senior analyst in the Consumer Price Division at Statistics Canada, to discuss everything you need to know about inflation and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Statistics Canada is Canada's national statistical agency dedicated to producing accurate, relevant, and timely data to help Canadians better understand their country. In our conversation, we unpack how inflation and the CPI are calculated and why it is so important. We explore the controversy around CPI calculations and the influence of inflation on government benefits, tax brackets, and the overall economy. Andrew also addresses scepticism and conspiracy theories about government inflation reporting, uncovers drivers of the perception gap, and explains how Statistics Canada ensures the accuracy and integrity of its data. Join us to hear the real story behind CPI and inflation with Andrew Barclay!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:00) Background about Andrew and what inspired today's topic.  (0:05:33) Find out why measuring inflation is important and how the CPI is calculated.  (0:10:08) What goes into the CPI basket and how frequently the contents are updated. (0:12:42) How consumer choices impact inflation and how 'shrinkflation' is accounted for. (0:15:43) Learn how quality adjustments are accounted for in the CPI and why they matter.  (0:19:01) Scepticism surrounding quality adjustments and how the CPI adapts to crises. (0:25:21) The role of grocery price tracking and why Canada uses a single CPI measure. (0:28:08) Explore the idea of personal inflation and why it is usually different to the CPI. (0:31:10) The difference between home prices and housing costs and how they are calculated. (0:35:41) Hear how Statistics Canada's approach for housing compares to other methodologies. (0:41:15) Perceived inflation versus actual inflation and drivers of the inflation perception gap. (0:51:58) Statistics Canada's method of dealing with the perception gap and ensuring quality.  (0:55:51) Uncover the most criticized indexes and how Statistics Canada includes feedback. (1:01:52) Andrew's message for those who do not trust the CPI and his definition of success.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Andrew Barclay on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-barclay-a38b6035/ Statistics Canada — https://www.statcan.gc.ca/ Canadian System of National Accounts | 'Catalogue of products' — https://publications.gc.ca/Collection/Statcan/13F0029X/13F0029XIE2000001.pdf Bank of Canada — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/ Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) — https://www.crea.ca/ Episode 323: Renting Versus Buying a Home in Canada 2005-2024 — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/323 Surveys of Consumers | University of Michigan — https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/ Statistics Canada | The Daily — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/index-eng.htm   Books From Today's Episode:   The Courage to Be Disliked — https://www.amazon.com/Courage-Be-Disliked-Phenomenon-Happiness/dp/1501197274   Papers From Today's Episode:  'The naked eye versus the CPI: How does our perception of inflation stack up against the data?' — https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/256-naked-eye-versus-cpi-how-does-our-perception-inflation-stack-against-data

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture EU has retaliated against Trump's tariffs, the UK decided to break from the EU. Canada folded on shutting down electricity, they fired back with more tariffs. This will not end well for these countries. Inflation has declined, energy prices have declined, drill baby drill. The Fed is trapped and the CR bill passed the house. The [DS] is now running out of time, Trump is negotiating peace. The FBI/DOJ are cleaning house, removing the blocks and finding the documents they need. The silent war continues against the [DS] but they are losing. Trump and the people have the leverage and the proof. Trump and the patriots continue to add more pieces to the puzzle. Soon the people will see a clear picture.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy EU Retaliates After Trump Tariffs Take Effect, But UK Breaks With Europe And Refuses To Respond  The EU has retaliated against Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum just hours after  they took effect at midnight New York time, escalating a trade war that has rattled financial markets and threatened the global economy. The European Commission said its measures would affect up to €26bn of American goods, matching the US tariffs on European exports, and would take effect in April, leaving some time to negotiate with Washington. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the EU regretted Trump's decision and that tariffs were “bad for business, and even worse for consumers" adding that “tariffs are disrupting supply chains. They bring uncertainty for the economy. Jobs are at stake. Prices will go up." They will go up... for Europe, pushing the economy further into stagflation. https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1899724243287302452?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1899724243287302452%7Ctwgr%5Ecd3e3486d1b8eadf73a88458e034bf4bb98b584a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Feconomics%2Feu-retaliates-after-trump-tariffs-take-effect-uk-breaks-europe-and-refuses-respond   Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1899578554074980479 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1899825311031705890 . https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1899638045474713873 Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Outlines Global Impact and Response from USA Tariff Hammer As we are notice today, for the first time since last year the Consumer Price Index now shows inflation slowing rapidly [CPI DATA HERE] as basic essential prices on energy and gasoline are dropping rapidly and all downstream products start dropping in sequence. Here is our current status after one month: – mortgage rates are down – egg prices are down – gas prices are down – overall inflation dropping – illegal immigration stopped at the border – wages going up – foreign aid shut down – woke initiatives being removed – massive manufacturing investments ongoing. Source: theconservativetreehouse.com AMERICA IS HEALING: Inflation Falls More Than Expected in Big Win For President Trump Less than two months into Donald Trump's presidency and inflation is already falling more than expected. In February, prices didn't rise as much as expected, offering some relief to consumers and businesses, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A key measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased 0.2 percent for the month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.8 percent. This was a slowdown from January when prices had gone up 0.5 percent. Source: thegatewaypundit.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami dive into the implications of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in softer than expected. They discuss how the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metrics, tariffs, and the looming trade war with China affect market sentiment. The conversation touches on the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly the performance of tech stocks like Nvidia ahead of their user conference, the impact of the trade war on inflation, and the potential for a slowdown in the job market. The discussion also highlights the recent performance of banking stocks, consumer spending trends, and the importance of bipartisan support for economic reforms. The episode explores the forecasting challenges faced by market strategists and the potential for significant market moves in the near future. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Mid-Week Market Insights: CPI Report & Federal Reserve Review - Feb 12 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on February 12th, host Brian Szytel covers the day's market activities influenced by the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The Dow dropped 225 points, the S&P was down by a quarter of a percent, while the Nasdaq saw a minor gain. The CPI numbers showed a monthly increase of 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3%, marking a yearly CPI of 3%. The core CPI excluding food and energy also surpassed expectations. Energy and food prices along with the shelter component significantly impacted the CPI. Szytel discusses the Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to manage inflation, noting the bond market's reaction and Fed Chairman Powell's testimony. The role of the Fed, particularly its expanded balance sheet since the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19, is critiqued. Szytel concludes with a forward-looking perspective and invites viewers to tune in the next day for more updates. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:32 Inflation Report Breakdown 01:15 Impact on Energy and Food Prices 01:26 Shelter Component Analysis 02:05 Market Reactions and Predictions 03:21 Federal Reserve's Role and Actions 04:51 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com