The Mortgage Update with Dan Frio Podcast

Mortgage rates, oil prices, and inflation just collided again. In this video I break down today's mortgage rate forecast, why oil crashing is moving inflation and interest rates, and what the Federal Reserve's next meeting could mean for your rate.If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out why rates move the way they do, this is the video that connects the dots. I walk through today's mortgage bond market chart, explain exactly how oil prices drive inflation and mortgage rates, and preview the economic data coming out this week that could push rates higher or lower.In this episode I cover: Why oil crashing is good news for mortgage rates and what could reverse it How oil prices, inflation, and interest rates are all connected This week's key economic reports: PMI, JOLTS, ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and the unemployment rate The Federal Reserve's current rate hike probability heading into the next meeting What I'm personally telling my clients right now about locking or floating their rate For more on how oil prices and inflation are shaping the mortgage market, check out my full breakdown on the blog: How Oil Prices Are Moving Mortgage Rates Right Now at therateupdate.com/blog

Mortgage rates are on the move after 3 Federal Reserve officials voted to hike rates this week, the largest dissent within the Fed since 1970. If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates are headed next, this is the update you need to watch.In this episode, I break down exactly why mortgage rates jumped to 6.77% today, why the Federal Reserve is split on hiking rates even as inflation cools, and why oil prices tied to the Iranian conflict are quietly driving Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher. I also walk through this week's economic data, next week's calendar, and what I'm personally advising my clients to do right now if they're under contract or thinking about locking in a rate.Here's what I cover:

Mortgage rates, Federal Reserve, inflation, PCE report, oil prices, Iran conflict, Dow Jones, mortgage rate forecast — here's what moved rates today and what the Fed does next.The Fed just came out and the mortgage bond market took a wild ride because of it. Inflation on the PCE report came in better than expected at 3.3%, jobless claims stayed low, and the Dow is nearing 52,000... but the Fed is still showing a 60% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting. On top of that, the oil war overseas is still raging and could send rates jumping if it escalates. In this video I break down exactly what's driving mortgage rates right now and what I'm telling my own clients to do about it. How to read the mortgage rate chart and what moved rates after the Fed's comments The PCE inflation report and why 3.3% matters Jobless claims, continued claims, and what they signal about the job market Oil prices, the Iran conflict, and how a jump to $120 a barrel could affect your rate Why the Dow is near 52,000 despite the ongoing conflict The Fed's 60% odds of a hike at the next meeting, and what I'm advising clients with a signed contract right now I go deeper on this in my blog post, Is the Fed About to Trigger a Mortgage Rate Shock?: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/is-the-fed-about-to-trigger-a-mortgage-rate-shockChapters:0:00 Intro – Inflation, Oil War & What the Fed Does Next 1:30 The Rate Chart – What Happened After the Fed's Comments 3:15 PCE Inflation Breakdown (3.3% Reading) 5:15 Jobs Data, Oil Prices & the Iran Conflict Risk 7:30 Dow Nears 52,000, Fed's 60% Hike Odds & Locking Your Rate

Mortgage rates are on edge today as oil prices spike and the Federal Reserve meets to decide what happens next with interest rates. I'm breaking down what's driving today's move and what it means for your rate.Today isn't a normal day. Iran struck another ship, oil jumped 6%, and the Federal Reserve is meeting this afternoon to figure out where the federal funds rate goes from here. I walk through the bond market, the inflation data, the jobs numbers, and exactly what I'm telling my own clients to do right now if they're under contract, sitting on the sidelines, or thinking about refinancing.In this video I cover: • Why oil prices jumping 6% in one day is hitting the mortgage bond market • What the Federal Reserve actually controls and how it ripples into your rate • The real CPI, PPI, and jobs numbers the Fed is watching this week • Why inflation is dropping when you strip out oil and energy • What I'm advising clients to do today: lock, wait, or holdRead the full breakdown on my blog: Fed Rate Call During a Global Crisis: Mortgage Rate Snapshot Today — https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/fed-rate-call-global-crisis-mortgage-rate-snapshot-todayAnd for more on where rates could head next: CPI Drops, Jobs Cool: Is a Fed Rate Cut Finally Coming? — https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/cpi-drops-jobs-cool-is-a-fed-rate-cut-finally-comingCHAPTERS 0:00 Oil spikes, Iran conflict, and today's Fed meeting 1:30 How the Federal Reserve actually controls rates 3:15 CPI, PPI, and the inflation data the Fed is watching 5:45 Jobs numbers and where the cracks are showing 7:30 What I'm telling my clients to do right now

Mortgage rates are holding steady heading into tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting, but oil sitting at $80 a barrel could change everything fast. Today I break down the jobs report, cooling inflation data, and why home prices are up 1.6% year over year despite the crash predictions.There's a 70% chance the Fed does nothing at tomorrow's meeting, but that's not the full story. Between a softening ADP jobs report, inflation numbers coming in cooler than expected, and oil prices tied directly to the ongoing conflict overseas, there's a lot moving underneath the surface that could shift your rate in either direction. Here's exactly what I'm watching and what I'm telling my own clients to do right now.

Mortgage rates today: oil prices drop to $84 a barrel, new tariffs hit the market, and the Federal Reserve meets in 2 days. Here's what it means for your mortgage rate, refinance, and home buying plans.

I used AI to rank every major housing market analyst since 2022 — who called the housing crash right, who got mortgage rate forecasts wrong, and where real estate is really headed in 2026. See how Logan from HousingWire, Realtor.com, and Zillow scored versus analysts still predicting a crash worse than 2008.Every day someone tells you exactly where mortgage rates and home prices are headed — but almost none of them go back and check if they were right. So I did. I ran the top housing market analysts and real estate YouTubers through AI, backdated the data to 2022, and scored who actually predicted housing correctly versus who's been calling for a housing crash worse than 2008 for four years straight.In this video I break down: The top-ranked housing market analysts since 2022 (HousingWire, Realtor.com, Zillow) The real estate influencers with the worst forecasting track record on mortgage rates and home prices Why "housing crash worse than 2008" predictions have failed for years Where my own mortgage rate and housing forecasts ranked What this means for homebuyers and homeowners deciding whether to buy, sell, or refinance in 2026

Mortgage rates moved higher today even after jobless claims hit a multi-year low — here's why. In this mortgage rate update, Dan Frio breaks down today's jobs report, the mortgage bond market, oil prices near $95 a barrel, and what it means for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. If you're buying a home, refinancing, or just trying to understand why mortgage rates keep moving, this housing market update explains exactly what's happening and what to watch next.

Oil hit $120 a barrel during the last Iran conflict. Today it's sitting around $80... during the SAME kind of conflict. That gap is the whole story for where mortgage rates go next, and I break down exactly why in today's video.I also walk through the two things the Federal Reserve actually cares about (inflation and jobs), what last week's data really showed, and why I'm telling you there's basically a 100% chance the Fed does nothing at next week's meeting. Then I get into what I'm personally telling my clients to do right now if you're under contract, or if you're planning to buy later this year.Stick around to the end, I show you the exact tools I use every single day to track this stuff myself, and how you can use them too.

Mortgage rates, inflation data, and Federal Reserve rate expectations all came together this week. Consumer inflation (CPI) and producer inflation (PPI) both came in negative, yet markets are still pricing in a possible Fed rate hike — Dan breaks down why the numbers and the Fed's next move don't seem to line up, what's coming next week before the Fed meeting, how oil prices tie into mortgage rates, and why he thinks rates could test their lows again soon.00:00 Intro: Why the Fed hike talk doesn't add up 01:35 This week's inflation and jobs data 03:45 What's coming next week before the Fed meets 05:45 Fed rate hike odds and closing outlook

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