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Today's discussion comes from our most recent annual conference “Existential Crises: Is the Georgist Paradigm Part of the Solution?” and was recorded in July of 2024. This is the final panel of our conference content on the polycrisis afflicting the globe. Thus far, we have discussed the four most important crises, followed by how Georgism can alleviate these crises, which was then be followed by how to make Georgism more politically palatable, and will now conclude with different Georgist policy solutions. Today's panelist is part of our fourth and final panel, “The Policy Options.” Our speaker for today's episode is Bryan Kavanagh. Mr. Kavanagh has extensive experience as a real estate evaluator working for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, as well as its Taxation Office. After many years in the public sector, Bryan went on to establish his own real estate evaluation firm Westlink Consulting. He is a research associate at the Land Values Research Group, a publisher of land-value-based economic research. Mr. Kavanagh is also an Executive Committee member of Prosper Australia, an international NGO committed to economic justice via land redistribution as proposed by Henry George. We were joined by Bryan to discuss how real estate prices impact the boom-bust cycle, why economic crises repeat themselves throughout history, and why economists are not so great at making predictions. To check out more of our content, including our research and policy tools, visit our website: https://www.hgsss.org/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/smart-talk-hgsss/support
If you have an interest in land value taxes and Georgism, you might have come across the acronyms ATCOR - “All taxes come out of rents” - and EBCOR “Excess burdens come out of rents”. Tim Helm, Research Director at Prosper Australia, helps unpack these concepts and how they can be useful for understanding the economy in the 21st century.——————Follow Cameron and Jonathan on X/Twitter. Buy The Great Housing Hijack here.Please like, comment, share, and subscribe.Theme music: Happy Swing by Serge Quadrado Music under Creative Commons Licence CC BY-NC 4.0 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fresheconomicthinking.com/subscribe
The Elephant In The Room Property Podcast | Inside Australian Real Estate
Are short-term rental platforms like Airbnb contributing to the worsening of the housing affordability crisis by reducing the availability of long-term rental properties? This shift towards short-term rentals makes it increasingly difficult for people to find affordable homes, driving up rental prices and increasing housing instability for vulnerable populations. Join us as Karl Fitzgerald, founder and director of Grounded, brings his extensive research to the table. Karl talks about how Airbnb and similar platforms impact housing markets, particularly in regional areas, and offer insightful solutions based on his findings. Tune in to explore the intersection of short-term rentals and housing policy, and discover innovative community-driven solutions that could help address the housing crisis while balancing the needs of both tourists and residents. Episode Highlights: 00:00 - Introduction 01:12 - Who is our guest for today? 06:04 - How Karl responded to the shift in rental proportions 07:50 - Is it possible to measure long-term rentals converted to short-term? 11:08 - Do short-term rental limits create property scarcity unintentionally? 17:37 - How does car-based and/or public transport influence short-term rental markets? 22:19 - How are communities still functioning when core workers can't find housing? 23:31 - Is the housing shortage phenomenon unique to Australia? 26:44 - Has the report's media attention resulted in any significant change? 28:39 - How does a community land trust work? 35:28 - Are community land trusts already operational in Australia? 44:18 - Karl Fitzgerald's property dumbo About Our Guest: Karl Fitzgerald, founder and Director of Grounded, is an economist with a distinguished background as the former Director of Research at Prosper Australia. Over 18 years, he led research on speculative investment and housing affordability, including directing the Speculative Vacancy reports that contributed to the Victorian Vacancy Tax. Karl also championed Victoria's Rezoning Windfall Gains Tax to reinvest rezoning profits into community infrastructure. His 2022 report challenged the belief that increasing housing supply alone improves affordability. Karl advocates for Community Land Trusts as a community-led alternative to current housing models, emphasizing equity and justice. Connect with Karl Fitzgerald: Website https://grounded.org.au/ Instagram https://www.linkedin.com/in/karl-fitzgerald/ Resources: Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now! Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719 Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Back in 2021 the Census revealed a shocking “one million homes were unoccupied”. But now we have a new survey from economic research organisation Prosper Australia, looking at empty homes in Melbourne from 2019 to 2023. The report SPECULATIVE VACANCIES 11 makes the point that while around 30,000 people in Victoria have no home, it … Continue reading "The Shame Of Vacant Property In A Time Of Homelessness!"
A new report on Speculative Vacancies by Tim Helm, Research Director at Prosper Australia, is out now (full disclosure, I currently do consulting work for Prosper on other projects).Using water meter data for every residential dwelling since 2018, Tim looked at trends in long-term unoccupied (empty) homes on a suburb-by-suburb basis across Melbourne. The concept of a long-term empty home is different to what we call housing vacancy, which typically refers to the number of rental advertisements, whether those homes are occupied or not. It is also very different to the concept of empty homes on census night, which is the source of the notorious one million empty dwellings figure.Looking at this more comprehensive measure of properly empty long-term homes helps illuminate a big unresolved issue in our understanding of housing markets. As the report says, it is “A window onto the economics of waiting and the hidden barriers to housing supply."What it showsThe basic story is that the number of year-long empty homes in 31 council areas across Melbourne (excluding 33 postcodes with a high proportion of holiday homes), grew from around 23,000 in 2018 and 2019 (or 1.4% of all dwellings) to over 35,000 in 2021. That's a one-third increase. For homes with less than 50L of water use per day over the calendar year, the rate grew from about 3.9% in 2019 to over 5.7% in 2022, before falling a touch in 2023 to 5.2%. It is also interesting to look back on previous reports and see that in 2012, only about 12,000 dwellings were empty year-round (with no water use) so the number in 2018 was already double the number just six years earlier. The top ten postcodes in 2023 all had more than 10% of homes using less than 50L of water per day, and a surprising number of postcodes had 3% to 5% of homes with not a drop of water used for 12 months straight. What it revealsThis is the more interesting part of the report. Let me quote at length. We don't understand vacancy well. There is little research on what drives it, partly due to limited measurement.Some explanations centre on growth- focused investment strategies, investor inattention, tax avoidance, drawn-out estate settlements, loan conditions for investors, and slow adjustment of price expectations. But there is little evidence on which factors matter most or which policies would have the biggest impact.On another level vacancy can be explained as a result of inequality – a sign that renters cannot afford to outbid the convenience value of an empty investment property. Some homes remain empty simply because their wealthy owners feel no need to use them.The economic explanation boils down to the relative value of flexibility versus yield. The decision to leave a home vacant depends on the trade-off between option value and cash returns. (The next section explains how this also applies to land development.)Empty property offers more options. If rents are low, landlords can avoid locking in low returns and the challenge of raising rent later. When sales prices are low, vendors can postpone sale, keeping the property untenanted to ensure the buyer pool includes owner-occupiers. If an owner plans to occupy their property in the future, keeping it empty makes this easier. The idea that property owners balance flexibility against yield is a catch-all explanation for these many and varied situations.When flexibility is valued highly, leaving property empty is rational. As a stylised numerical example, with a net rental yield of 2.5% and a 5% sale price premium on an untenanted home, an investor waiting for optimal selling conditions would profit by keeping it vacant for up to two years.The value of flexibility over yield is higher when yields are low and property is valued more significantly as a growth investment. This has been the case in recent decades, with low and falling interest rates. Taxing capital gains less than rental income reinforces this trend.What about empty homes taxes?These types of taxes, which add to the cost of flexibility of holding housing empty, seem to work to reduce empty homes and raise revenue. Here's a table listing eleven such taxes from cities around the world. Victoria has an empty home tax on its way. The problems they often face are in the monitoring and enforcement. How do you prove vacancy? How can criteria be gamed?My thoughtsI don't think the fact that there are over 30,000 empty homes in Melbourne is what is causing rents and prices to rise. Melbourne has been a world leader in its rate of new home building in the past 15 years or so. So I hope people don't interpret the report as saying that this is the cause of prices. I see it as, like the subtitle suggests, offering a window onto the economics of waiting—in other words, the value of flexibility. This is a very much overlooked feature of property markets and applies much more to vacant land without any homes than occupied land with empty homes. Any theory of housing production (converting developable sites into homes) and housing utilisation (getting empty homes occupied) much grapple with the dynamic where waiting pays. An interesting coincidence is that Canada's CBC did some reporting on empty condos in Toronto a couple of weeks back too. Seems like empty homes are a normal feature of market adjustments, and we need to understand this if we want to understand housing supply in general. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fresheconomicthinking.com/subscribe
The 2021 census revealed 1 million empty homes in Australia. In 2022 Prosper Australia found 104,000 vacant properties alone in metropolitan Melbourne. Support Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thefergnealshow
This episode of 'Radio Architecture with Ilana Razbash', features Edithvale local, Claire Leach. After working in a variety of professions and industries in Australia and internationally, Claire established HATCH Biosystems, a food waste processing start-up which used insects to convert food waste into high value feed and fertiliser products. After 8 years HATCH unfortunately closed in mid 2023. Since then Claire has been volunteering with Prosper Australia and petitioning local and federal governments to be more proactive in getting vacant properties back onto the market to help fix our current housing crises.
Tim Helm is the Research Director of Prosper Australia. We chat about Tim's intellectual journey into the economics of property and housing, and his views on housing prices and debates about supply. The Auckland analysis referenced in the episode can be found here and here.Follow Cameron and Jonathan on Twitter. Theme music: Happy Swing by Serge Quadrado Music under Creative Commons Licence CC BY-NC 4.0Fresh Economic Thinking is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Fresh Economic Thinking at www.fresheconomicthinking.com/subscribe
Our housing system is broken, but where do we look for different ways forward and a theory of change?Come and join me with economist Karl Fitzgerald from Grounded the new Community Land Trust Advocacy (and formerly of Prosper Australia ). Karl advocates that a saner future awaits when we focus on a community land housing solution that moves us away from the speculative drive and sprawl. He is dedicated to creating and sharing new models and developing housing futures that are intertwined with the permaculture movement. Listen throughout for how Karl cleverly describes this model of community land trusts through the language of permaculture principles, and describes a community-led `affordable housing option. So many possibilities presented. Grounded is researching ways forward - to come together. Grow together!GROUNDED FACEBOOKGROUNDED EVENTKarl mentioned:Community land trust UKCornwall CLT Champlain CLT Vermont Karl also mentioned the First Knowledges series of books .This podcast is supported by Permaculture Education Institute - teaching permaculture teachers globally. We host permaculture courses, as well as free monthly permaculture film club and masterclass events. We broadcast from a solar powered studio in the midst of a permaculture ecovillage food forest. You can also watch Sense-Making in a Changing World on youtube.SUBSCRIBE for notification of each new episode & please leave us a 5 star REVIEW so our show will be recommended to others by the bots (really it does help for these conversations and ideas to myceliate). We acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which we live work and play and pay or respects to elders past and present. We are based on the unceded land of the Gubbi Gubbi .
Our first FET podcast guest is Catherine Cashmore, an experienced property professional. Catherine's insights are unique because not only does she have on-the-ground insights about property investing, she has a deep understanding of the theoretical and policy debates about housing and property that have happened since the days of Henry George in the late 19th century. As well as dealing with this long history of property debates, we ask Catherine about what buyers often get wrong about property investment, whether there is a financial logic to renting instead of buying, and what might be next for Australia's property market.You can find out more about Catherine and her thoughts on property markets and policy at the following places.* The Land Cycle Investor is a free newsletter including lots of cool interviews!https://landcycleinvestor.fattail.com.au/ * Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, containing in-depth information concerning the land cycle, how it applies to Australia and how to use the knowledge to create wealth.https://fattail.com.au/subscription/pan/ * Catherine's personal website is at cashmoreco.com.au * Prosper Australia is at Prosper.org.au Follow Cameron and Jonathan on Twitter.Theme music: Happy Swing by Serge Quadrado Music under Creative Commons Licence CC BY-NC 4.0Please leave a comment with your ideas for future podcast conversations and Substack posts.Thanks for reading Fresh Economic Thinking! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fresheconomicthinking.com
About Karl Fitzgerald - Economist and Director of GroundedWelcome to The Room Xchange Podcast. I'm Ludwina Dautovic and today I have the pleasure of speaking with Karl Fitzgerald about Community Land Trusts.Karl Fitzgerald is an economist specialising in land economics and works as the Director of Grounded - the Community Land Trust advocacy body. He led Prosper Australia's research for 18 years. He is also Treasurer of the Malmsbury Village Fayre, a volunteer with the local farmers market and loves making rhubarb amaro.A message from our host - Ludwina DautovicThis conversation took me by surprise. I first met Karl Fitzgerald at a recent Prosper event. I'd never heard of Prosper before or the idea that land could be leased to build upon. Call me naive, but with the entire conversation in the media being about home ownership in Australia, it's a little hard to imagine there is another way.Karl and I go in depth about the process of Community Land Trusts. I used my lack of knowledge on the subject as a presupposition that the listeners might not have too much knowledge on it either.I hope you enjoy this episode. I welcome your thoughts and opinions on our social media. All links are below."Society is so busy playing the monopoly board game that they can't see how they are being played by monopolists IRL" - Karl FitzgeraldIn this episode we discuss:Rhubarb AmaroHow his brother's cot death led to the founding of the Sudden Infant Death Research Foundation which today is known as Red Nose Australia.He discovered Georgism and got involved with Prosper Australia and helped build the company back up. Prosper Australia has been around since 1890 and was born out of an American economist called Henry George.How Grounded is setting up Community Land Trusts to enable people to have access to affordable housingKarl Fitzgerald produced a documentary called 'Real Estate 4 Ransom'A CLT means that you only pay for the building of the house, not the land it's on so it massively reduces the cost of housingWhy are we experiencing a rental crisis?When did affordable housing become a privilege and not a right?We should be giving tax incentives to nurses and childcare workers as opposed to land developers13.5m unused spare bedrooms in 10m homes across Australia - existing housing stockWe need to shift the conversation around how we can fix housingThere are also 1.1m vacant homes around Australia. To replace that stock would cost $650mCharge higher rates for vacant homes - vacancy taxVacant land banks that are being held by investorsin 2022 Australian land prices increased by $994 billion!Corporate renters will be the new housing trend"If we share the benefits of location, location.... thContact The Room Xchange Tweet us at @theroomxchange and @LudwinaDautovic Share a story on instagram @theroomxchange Email us at admin@theroomxchange.com Please leave us a reviewClick here for Apple reviewsConnect on our socialsYoutube | Facebook | Instagram | Twitter | Linkedin Sign up on our websitewww.theroomxchange.com
The NSW government will introduce legislation into parliament that could see first home buyers given the option of choosing between stamp duty and an annual land tax payment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this Henry George lecture for Prosper Australia, Grattan's Brendan Coates shows how expensive housing sits at the heart of some of Australia's most pressing policy challenges. Read the full speech: https://grattan.edu.au/news/the-great-australian-nightmare/
Who Needs the ABC? here II Prof Matthew Ricketson gives us the background to the recent attacks on the ABC and the nature of those attacks and poses the question should people relax with the change of government. It is from an author talk at Emerald Hill Library featuring his book Who Needs the ABC? Why Taking it for granted is no longer an option co-authored by Patrick MullinsLifting the Land Supply Curtain here II Staged Releases the last report put out by Karl Fitzgerald before leaving Prosper Australia after 18 years. This report looks at how the public policy fix for the housing problem - release land to developers - is and will never succeed in deliving the public policy aim of houses for home owners. Karl talks to us about the report's findings and gives some other possible answers to the problem.This is the week here II Kevin has a field day with the Morrison I am the Minister of everything revelation.Forum for Dwelling Justice here II the Forum for Dwelling Justice (program and speakers) brings the underlining issues of social justice into focus as they intersect with the disgracefull situation of homelessness. To be held at the Capitol Cinema in Melbourne's centre, across from the Town Hall, on Friday 26th August between 1-7pm. Tickets info here
Michael speaks to Catherine Cashmore, president of Prosper Australia, who for years have conducted research into how many of Australia's 9.8 million homes are left vacant. Prosper's tenth analysis of vacant land and housing conducted in 2019 found that 69,004 properties were likely vacant in 2019. This represents a 4.1% speculative vacancy rate. This research has been cited by a recent United Nations study on the pernicious effects of the financialisation of the housing sector, and has likely been a key reason for the adoption of a vacant housing tax in Victoria, and probably in Canada as well. It is timely, therefore, to consider some of the economic and practical realities of vacant housing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This week on Nucleus Investment Insights we are delighted to spend some time with Catherine Cashmore, real estate commentator, President of tax reform think tank Prosper Australia and co owner of a property advocacy company called Anderson and Cashmore real estate. nucleuswealth.com
Emily Sims, Prosper Australia’s Office manager joins to discuss the imperatives of Georgist philosophical analysis. Why is it a useful tool when analysing affordability, gentrification and the wealth gap? How can both Libertarian and Anarchists find common ground? Listen to find out the key fact to protecting private property rights.Show notes: http://www.earthsharing.org.au/1qM
Dr Terry Dwyer delivers a lawyers versus economists insight into the evolution of tax havens. Is the onus on the state or the entrepreneur - who is to blame for base erosion? A fascinating presentation recorded at Prosper Australia.Show notes - www.earthsharing.org.au/1olImage - https://unsplash.com/photos/KZiTNgJ5WL8
Beyond Zero talks to Karl Fitzgerald, an economist, "tax geek" and Project Director at Prosper Australia and Earhtsharing. He talks about land value capture and how it can fund the building the high speed rail network from Melbourne to Brisbane, researched in BZE's Zero Carbon Australia High Speed Rail report.
In the final Solidarity Breakfast for 2015 Dr Noah Bassil joins us to look back over the year's political comlextion from the imperialist wars to the capitalist response to climate change; returned Labour member and supporter of Jeremy Corbyn, Rod Quinn reviews Corbyn's progress to the Prime Minister ship of UK; Prosper Australia reports the hidden level of vacant investment properties in Melbourne is over 80,000. Karl Fitzgerald from Prosper Australia explains how empty properties are nectar to investors supported by government policy while members of the Homeless Persons Union have first hand knowledge of public housing being moved into private hands out of the reach of the people who it was orginally intended for begging the question: Is the housing crisis just another invention to support the neoliberal adgenda?
Show NotesAlanna Hartzok discusses US Imperialism through South America, Eastern Europe and beyond. The systemic imperative that encourages such destruction is then explained. We finish on a positive with the Universal Basic Income.Related LinksAlanna is the author of the Earth Belongs to Everyone (free e-book PDF download), recent Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania's District 9, General Secretary of the International Union for Land Value Taxation and International Liaison for the Robert Schalkenbach Foundation.During the interview we discuss the Venuezuela coup attempt, Paul Craig Roberts on Iran, and then move onto Alanna's must read essay The Economics of War and Peace.That completes four weeks of the big names in our economic niche, of Anderson, Harrison, Hudson and Hartzok. Show your support for the show by becoming a member to our parent body Prosper Australia. Our membership year has just turned over, so now is the perfect time to support the movement.More show notes
Land rent, Economic rent: The Earth’s Worth Secretly Supported by Economists: Bryan Kavanagh analyses the Henry Tax Review following Karl’s salvo on global economic issues.On his death in 1988, Hutchinson was succeeded by Bryan Kavanagh. As a professional property valuer and a student of Georgist economics, Kavanagh knew that the land market is characterized by bubble-burst cycles and that the bursts are followed by recessions in the wider economy. On this basis he had predicted, in an article published in The Valuer in July 1987, that the next recession would be in 1991/2. This was correct to within one year. Seeking a reliable method of diagnosing a land bubble, Kavanagh began aggregating statistics on property turnover in the several Australian States since 1972, and eventually noticed that whenever the turnover exceeded 19% of GDP in a nationwide trend, and then returned below 19% (as it always did), recession followed within 2 years. He concluded that the ratio of property turnover to GDP is a veritable barometer of the economy, and that a ratio exceeding 19% indicates an economically damaging bubble. He is therefore unimpressed by the Greenspan doctrine that one cannot recognize a bubble until it bursts. Australian real estate re-entered bubble territory, according to Kavanagh's criterion, in 1999 or 2000.DownloadBryan Kavanagh blogs at the Land Values Research Group: Economics as if location matters (Prosper Australia)Source: Renegade EconomistsAired: 5/5/10 12:00 AMThis podcast is an aggregate of audio files freely available online. Please visit the original source and subscribe to the host website.