Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Well, well, in my live show with Chris Bates yesterday we dived into the impact of the budget changes and suggested that with the removal of significant numbers of investors from the playing field, Governments will need to do more to entice (nay bribe) first time buyers into the market to stop prices falling too … Continue reading "“Expect More Support For First Home Buyers”: BINGO!"

In this edit of our live show we examined the property market ructions, caused by the recent budget changes, interest rate rises and political intervention. I was joined by Chris Bates, CEO of Mortgage Brokers Alcove, one of Australia’s most strategically-minded mortgage broking businesses, with offices in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. He’s one of Australia’s … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Australian Property Three Body Problem: With Chris Bates"

This week we dive into the latest property price fall projections, and ask some more searching questions about the market dynamics. We also kick around the migration question, in the light of One Nation’s latest poll results. And the rental crisis continues to deepen, thanks to poor policy choices… If you are buying your home … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

In recent posts I highlighted how the current property dynamics thanks to higher interest rates, and now Labor's decision to introduce a minimum 30 per cent tax on capital gains from July 2027 and abolish negative gearing has rattled property investors. I also said, from an affordability perspective we do need lower prices, because it … Continue reading "Warning: Property Weakness Ahead Will Have Real World Consequences…"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. We got a bitter taste at the end of the week, as the NASDAQ Composite fell more than 4 per cent on Friday after May's US payrolls … Continue reading "Are Markets At A Precarious Tipping-Point?"

The airwaves are full of property doom and gloom. It is interesting to see the narrative turn from property investors had no real impact on home prices, to now, prices will drop. In my earlier show I explained why this is good, despite the horror being expressed by many. And we are getting a spray … Continue reading "Forecasting Home Price Falls Is A Mugs Game… But…"

Coalition housing spokesman Andrew Bragg, said this week. “Clare O'Neil just should have said the truth that everyone knows, that house prices for young people in this country are too high. They've been too high for too long and she should have said, ‘Look, house prices are too high',” he said. “Australians are looking for … Continue reading "Let's Be Honest. Home Prices Must Fall!"

Funny how no none can agree why prices in Australian property might fall ahead. The Government blames the RBA for rising interest rates, while the RBA says Government policy is a significant factor. Sometimes I just wish they would let the property market be a real market not a public policy plaything. Reserve Bank of … Continue reading "Why The Slowing Housing Market In Australia?"

Well, well, the latest data from the ABS revealed that Australia's economy decelerated last quarter, missing estimates, thanks to the early impact of higher fuel costs and rising interest rates as well as slowing wages, with modest household and public sector expenditure as well as cyclone disruptions to mining and export activities. There are three … Continue reading "Australia Saved By Data Centres For Now, As Our Luck Runs Dry…"

In this live show we examined the markets as they climb to new highs in many places, driven by strong results, and hopes of a Gulf peace deal. How come traders mostly ignore the inflation risks, and higher bond yields? I will be joined by Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: From Bubble To Bubble: Investing Now With Damien Klassen"

In this show, I discuss the latest data with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we examine the monthly moves across the country, listings and sales, and also the rental story. There are many moving parts, across multiple markets, and the outlook is not certain, but the latest poll on One Nation could potentially have … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

In a classic at first slowly, then with a rush, we are getting more data to confirm the depth of distress and distortion in the Australian property markets as the perfect storm for the two thirds of people who own property, with a mortgage or outright, and the third who from choice or necessity rent … Continue reading "More Signs Of A Broken Property Market!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and End in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Financial markets have become little more than a series of bubbles, with investors jumping from one to the next. We had a bubble in software which morphed … Continue reading "Markets Are Leaping From Bubble To Bubble; Just Don't Look Down!"

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I dive into the latest economic and political news this Friday, reflecting on the state of play in the Straits of Hormuz, the fall-out from the budget and the misdirection which is implied and discuss the New Zealand Reserve Bank decision this week, which underscores the divergent path of the Australian … Continue reading "In The Battle Of The Old V's The New World, There Are More Losers Than Winners: With Tarric Brooker"

The New Zealand Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. Interestingly the decision was a split vote between holding and hiking. Governor Breman who is Chair of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on-hold vote was the tiebreaker, separating the views of external members and banks staff. The three external … Continue reading "RBNZ Hawkish Rate Hold Spells Higher Rates Ahead… But…"

Last week, Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted the danger of rising inflation expectations in remarks to a Bloomberg Forum, saying ” The surge in oil prices is “another inflationary shock that's coming through not that long after the last one, which was not that long after the one before, so there's a combination … Continue reading "The Inflation Genie Is Still Out Of The Australian Bottle!"

This is an edit of my latest live show where we examined the evolution of the property market, including the impact of the latest budget changes and other economic factors, and explored who are the winners and losers, with Veronica Morgan the Founder and Principal of Good Deeds Property Buyers. She is also the co-host … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Winners & Losers With Veronica Morgan"

In this weeks episode, Edwin goes deep into the political sphere to decode what may happen to prices. His conclusions may surprise you! There are some clear property winners and losers. For more on that, check out my live show with Veronica Morgan tomorrow: https://youtube.com/live/pn-Sk_8XjWE If you are buying your home in Sydney's contentious market, … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Let's face it, the oft quoted Australian Property Prices only go up was always a lie, but the religious belief that prices double every seven to ten years is now in pieces, as more data shows momentum building towards a significant correction. The latest from Cotality's dwelling values index shows we are building towards a … Continue reading "Now Home Prices Are Sliding, Who Takes The Fall?"

Markets tend to be myopic, focussing on the latest shiny thing, like a magpie, and recently the latest US earnings season was in focus, with more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, overall first-quarter earnings jumped 29% from a year earlier; but now that is in the rear view mirror, investors are … Continue reading "Bond Macro Warns As Markets Feed On Strong Earnings, For Now…"

We recently got the April 2026 data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, which tells the continued story of weakness across the country, but not uniformly so. For context, note that their House Price Index is now 15.9% down from peak on average across the country, or excluding Auckland, down 10.9%. Despite this, … Continue reading "New Zealand Property Remains In The Doldrums With More Questions Ahead."

The latest data from the ABS showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5 per cent in April, as the number of employed people fell by 19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by 33,000. Actually, the total number of people employed fell for the first time this year, driven … Continue reading "Australian Unemployment Climbs, As Expected… But…"

The outlook for inflation ahead is getting more concerning, as the lasting impacts of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, plus the recent budget announcements, and the already higher for longer bond rates merge with the existing pattern of inflation lodged about the RBA's target range, before this all comes home to roost. Meantime, … Continue reading "The Inflation Picture Darkens, As The Property Market Stalls…"

In this edit of our live show in which we examined the impact of the budget and other economic factors, like the ongoing closure of the Straits of Hormuz, on the Australian Property Market, and the broader economy. Will prices fall? Will the proposed changes drive rents up? To decode the implications I was joined … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Is The Australian 30-year Property Super-cycle Over? With Leith van Onselen"

In our post-budget conversation we look at the potential impacts on the property market, and what may lay ahead. Edwin brings us another insight into how to approach things at the moment, as we delve into the policy changes and join the dots. This is not a budget which will make more property available, despite … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Richard Wiles from Morgan Stanley after the budget on Tuesday suggested that the Australian 30-year property super-cycle is likely over, with significant impact on Bank valuations because of weakening credit demand. Years ago, Richard and I use to work on the JP Morgan Property reports, which for years were jointly published with DFA, so I … Continue reading "Is The Australian 30-year Property Super-cycle Over?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. While last week AI drove most markets higher, concerns about accelerating inflation surged this week, triggering a spike in global bond yields amid the likelihood of higher-for-longer … Continue reading "Market Roller-coaster Drops On Higher Interest Rate Fears, As AI Bets Fade"

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I catch up for another end of week chat, and dive into the budget, the RBA rate hike, the fallout from recent polls, and the broadening impact of the blockage in the Straits of Hormuz. Tarric brought along his latest charts, you can follow along here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2055170656778813537 Across the board it … Continue reading "Yet Another Brick In The Wall… With Tarric Brooker"

The ABS this week released their latest data on Lending Indicators which is a quarterly estimate of new borrower-accepted finance commitments for housing, personal and business loans and also the Wage Price Index for March which measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee … Continue reading "New Property Loans And Wages Growth Down; It's All Fine!"

This is my edit of our monthly economic update, with a focus this time on the outcomes from the budget, and its impact on housing. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

This is an edit of a live show where we examined the latest from our surveys and did a deep dive into specific post codes: Contents 27:32 Parkwood 421430:29 Goulburn 258033:43 Coomera 420936:40 Biggera Waters 421539:14 Bayeau Bay 226141:28 Ringwood North 313443:26 Coffs Harbour 245045:09 Nhill 341847:15 Hunters Hill 232351:14 Bella Vista 215353:08 470254:39 346556:06 … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Households Facing Into The Gale: Latest From Our Surveys!"

In our latest show Edwin and I kick the tyres on the upcoming budget, which will be full of announcables, but will it make any difference? We also look at the latest gloom from the property writers and ask what are they missing? And Edwin has some more sage advice about property, and life. Check … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Australian Property appears to be at a significant turning point, with the realisation that prices can go down, as well as up now becoming a reality. So today we examine some of the latest market dynamics in the light of the upcoming budget on Tuesday, where Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Tuesday's budget would have a … Continue reading "Red Alert: Property In Turmoil As Government Seeks To Support And Crush At The Same Time!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets seem to be in self-reinforcing feedback loop, with the MSCI Global Index up another 2.38% over the past week, while the All Asia Ex Japan rose … Continue reading "The Madness Of Markets Disconnects From Reality!"

After the latest RBA rate rises, and the Gulf War impact, we explore the latest from our household surveys to see the impact of the financial pressures they are facing. We see a rise in mortgage related stress in particular. We also update our scenarios based on the latest from the RBA and explore the … Continue reading "Households, Facing Into The Gale, Grit Their Teeth And Hope!"

Australia is one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, but according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), east coast gas supplies could fall well short of demand from 2028, “despite there being sufficient reserves and resources for at least the next decade”. And Australians are exposed to the full international price of gas, … Continue reading "Australia Finally Reserves East Coast Gas … But…"

On Tuesday the RBA lifted the cash rate to a stonking 4.35%, in the third move in three decisions. Those following this channel would have not been surprised, as I have been signalling this for some time. This despite the pressures that many households are under as costs rise, inflation bites and real incomes track … Continue reading "Financial Realities Hit Home After The RBA Rate Hike!"

In this live show we examined the contention between record markets in the US, driven by AI investment and the real impact of the Gulf War. Will the former “Trump” the latter? I was joined by Head of Investments Damien Klassen. We also covered the RBA cash rate decision too! Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Will The AI Boom Save The Markets, Despite The War? With Damien Klassen"

This week Edwin, our property insider and I go though the latest data on building approvals, auctions and listing and ask whether the MSM media commentary about potential property price falls makes sense. We also examine the latest issues facing high-rise and approvals ease back, while demand for stand alone property rockets. Edwin also make … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

In today’s show property insider Edwin Almeida and I discuss the “real estate virus” and how it mutates faster than regulators attempts to control it, plus the latest on the fall-out from the Iran conflict and the hit to households incoming from a potential rate rise. Politicians will be able to blame “the war” for … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Suddenly the media reporting on auction clearance statistics for the weekend have changed. For example, the AFR trumpets “‘Fear and anxiety' grips auction market” with the line “Australia's east-coast-dominated housing market is cooling, with more homes being offered for sale at the same time as prospective buyers grow cautious about the cost of living and … Continue reading "Slowly, Then Quickly As “Fear Grips” The Property Market!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Sometimes, events change thinking, and this week harsh reality crept across global markets. Investors, central banks and ordinary consumers alike are being held hostage as Brent rose … Continue reading "Markets, Households & Businesses All Held Over A Barrel!"

With the current oil price spiking thanks to the current Middle East conflict, Head of Investments from Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds, Damien Klassen and I discuss the relative economics of EV’s versus oil driven cars. With Oil north of $100 a barrel, the analysis reveals some significant insights into the markets in … Continue reading "The EV Versus Oil Toss-Up; In The Current Context: With Damian Klassen"

Our latest surveys highlight that BOTH property renters AND property investors are facing significant challenges, given the low levels of supply, rising costs and regulatory intervention. The truth is the system is broken, as APRA tries to clamp down on highly leveraged loans, even as the growth in investor lending outstrips owner occupied lending, while … Continue reading "Property Investors And Property Renters BOTH Being Crushed!"

Sorry to say, but households, already under the pump as I discussed in my live show yesterday are going to face more pain in the months ahead as interest rates rise and inflation breaks higher. It was already trending that way, but the conflict in the Middle East is making things worse, and despite some … Continue reading "Hold On! Rates And Inflation Are Going Up! But Why?"

In this edit of a live show we examined the latest data from our surveys, and the distribution of financial stress across the country. With the prospect of higher interest rates and and the Iran situation this is more important than ever. Find out where the key pressure points are. 0:00 Introduction3:22 Oil Crisis and … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Mapping Household Finances As Pressures Rise And Incomes Fall!"

In tonight’s rant Edwin, our property insider and I discuss the latest from the middle east and specifically how it may impact Australia, and Australian property! We are seeing a range of issues bubbling up which may well impact households and property across the country. But not all property is impacted in the same way. … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. As expected, the broadening conflict in the middle east spooked markets as Oil rose with WTI up more than 35% and LNG gas futures up 67%. As … Continue reading "Brace: Markets Caught In A Volatile Trap As War, Jobs And Credit Risks All Hit!"

The Australian Property appears to be at an inflection point, with prices in Melbourne and Sydney at an aggregate level stalling, and growth easing elsewhere, as the impact of higher interest rates and degraded affordability hit home. In addition, the negative news from the Gulf, and the wider potential economic fallout, as well as stalling … Continue reading "Truth And Lies About The Property Market"

Recent events surrounding Iran are the core of this weeks discussion with journalist Tarric Brooker. Using his great slides we dive into the potential consequences of the raging war, and examine the potential economic and politics consequences. Even Australia, a world away will not be immune. And we also consider the latest on housing and … Continue reading "Its The End Of The World As We Know It! With Tarric Brooker"

Today we got the latest data from the ABS relating to Household Spending . Overall, the story continues, with households spending more on things they must buy, and less on things they choose to buy. And importantly Household consumption did not deliver the expected strength in the GDP data yesterday as many households remain under … Continue reading "What They Don't Tell You About Household Spending!"