Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. Another chaotic week, with the tariff issues spinning into farce, even as long term bond yields claw higher, and friction with China and the US continues. Sentiments … Continue reading "Tariffs; The Uncertainty Gift That Keeps Giving…"

Australia's economic woes can be sheeted to poor Government on housing, tax non-reform and many other factors, but the mother of all problems is the costs of energy. I find in amazing that despite swimming in gas being sucked from the ground by several large multinational companies who apparently pay no tax, they sell the … Continue reading "The Gas Long Con Continues; For Now… At What Cost?"

Here we go again, more uncertainly relating to Trumps Favorite policy tool, which has been thrown into turmoil after the US trade court issued a rare rebuke blocking many of the import taxes he has threatened and imposed on other countries. The US trade court is part of the nation's federal court system and was … Continue reading "The Tariff Snakes And Ladders Game Takes Another Turn!"

New Zealand has been on a more aggressive monetary policy path, having pushed rates high enough to create a recession, then cut them again after starting its easing cycle in August lowering the OCR by 225 points including another 25 basis points today, making the RBNZ one of the most aggressive rate cutters among its … Continue reading "Kiwis Get Another Rate Cut: But Will Home Prices Respond?"

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager at Alto Capital Tony Locantro, as we explore the current financial and social landscape. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: What The ??? Just Happened? With Tony Locantro"

Edwin and I discuss the latest from the property market, and the political and economic events which underpin it. Funny how politicians seem to look after their own interests, not ours, and how the spin from the property sector continues to diverge from reality on the ground. Meantime, energy prices are set to rise, even … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Believe it or not, its now 12 months since the Senate Inquiry into Regional Banking released their report. You may recall that I, working with The Regional's Dale Webster, alongside the Citizens Party and others, managed to get the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport References Committee to look at banking in the regions, and … Continue reading "No Cash, Crickets And A War Of Mass Distraction!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. U.S. equities pulled back this week after a torrid rally, as investors turned their attention to tax and spending legislation poised to swell the U.S. government's $36 … Continue reading "The Markets React To The Art Of The Deal Going Full Picasso!"

The strong message I continue to get from my household surveys is that many households feel trapped in the jaws of ever higher prices, and see a real devaluation in their effective income, which means they are going backwards. Many are working more hours and multiple jobs to try and get by. Yet the Government … Continue reading "Reality Versus The Statisticians: Yes You Do Have An Real Income Recession!"

Something important is happening in the Bond markets which will impact us all. In short, all around the world it seems, investors are more reluctant to lend to governments over long terms. Overall, bond investors are demanding more compensation to buy longer maturities — and not just for the US. Japanese and UK 30-year yields … Continue reading "Signals From The Bond Market Front Line…"

Funny how Bond markets seem to look past most of what RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said in her post Monetary Policy Committee meeting yesterday, but remember they are gamblers. As was expected, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent in its second reduction this year, but revelations during … Continue reading "Expect The Unexpected As Uncertainty Spirals…"

This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the thorny question of how to get good advice, and best value from Real Estate Agents. I will be joined by insiders who will share their industry insights. Aaron Scott https://www.brightagent.com/Edwin Almeida info@ribbonproperty.com.au Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: How To Get The Best From A Real Estate Agent"

A mega edition tonight, as we look at the rate cut expectations and their impact on home prices, the fall out from the changes to rental rules, the $3m+ gains tax on superannuation and its implications and the latest from the Wee Chat market seekers in Melbourne. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Which ever way you look at it, housing affordability in Australia is shot. Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reported that the total value of Australia's housing stock was $11.3 trillion as of April 30, 2025, with the average home worth exactly $1 million. This is a leech on the economic prosperity of Australia, and a massive misallocation … Continue reading "Housing Affordability Blown To Bits…"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. Superficially since the start of the year, global stocks, as measured by the MSCI index are up a healthy 4.67% while the European STOXX 600 is up … Continue reading "OK, So Now Where Do Markets Go Next?"

Commonweath Bank was in the news this week, first because of its reported results, and second because of its “draconian” handling of what is called the Know Your Customer or KYC rules. CBA reported a flat cash profit of a $2.6 billion during the third quarter of the 2025 financial year pretty much in line … Continue reading "Are They Banking On Their Own Futures; Not Yours?"

Just a few days ago, markets were betting on a mega 50 basis point cut in the cash rate by the RBA next week and expecting a rate below 3% before the end of the year, anticipating at least five RBA rate cuts with a decent chance of a sixth, reflective of the worrying second … Continue reading "Pop Goes The Rate Cut Calls?"

The latest data from the ABS on Overseas Arrivals and Departures, in Australia revealed that the fall in Australian net overseas migration may have stalled and started to reverse. Of course high migration puts pressure on home prices, stoking demand for rental property as well, and also paves a path to lower wages for some, … Continue reading "An Island Of Strangers?"

This is an edit of a live discussion as I explore the latest from my surveys and modelling and deep dive on specific post codes. It included specific post code data requested by viewers. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: Post Code Analysis: Households Under The Pump"

In this week’s show Edwin, our property insider, and I highlight recent changes in property listings, which might well signal a change in trajectory is afoot. Of course the property press are talking up the markets like never before, stoked by the hope of significant interest rate cuts. And given the fact many of our … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

As the dust settles on the election, with Labor back on 34.69% first preferences, a number reflective of the lat UK election too, where the party with the landslide has a narrow base of primary supporters; one figure which remains is that promise of building 1.2 million homes over five years, even if the start … Continue reading "The Missing Homes That Won't Get Built!"

I am joined by Journalist Tarric Brooker for a post-election debrief, and a flurry of excellent charts to examine how Australia is travelling. As we will see there are some important signals, and questions arising, especially in the content of the US Tariffs. Check out Tarrics Substack here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-9th-may-2025 His Facebook link is here: https://www.facebook.com/people/Burnout-Economics/61553967393228/ … Continue reading "Australia's Managed Decline: With Tarric Brooker"

On Wednesday we got the latest FOMC rate decision from Jerome Powell and the FED, following their first meeting since President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements last month. He made it clear in the subsequent press conference that the US economy, based on the bulk of available data is still tracking well, and whilst the … Continue reading "Just Don't Mention Stagflation, As Uncertainty Rises!"

We have had a slew of data recently, which tells the true sorry story about Australian Households. While the election campaign was centred on costs of living, the nature of the problem was not explored, nor were the solutions thrown out on the stump addressing the real pain which is out there. For context, the … Continue reading "Can't Spend; Won't Spend Says Households As Recession Looms…"

This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest market moves with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. Are the bulls back, or is a recession incoming? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Are The Bulls Back? Investing Now: With Damien Klassen"

This is our post-election Rant, where Edwin and I discuss the fall-out on property from the results. Prices will be driven higher in some areas, thanks to supply pressure and increasing demand, but not uniformly, as there are other important factors in play… http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

So now we know, Labor is headed into a landslide result from the election, after Liberal votes fell away and the opposition leader Peter Dutton lost his seat. If the number holds through to the end of the count, it will be the highest two-party preferred vote since World War II, exceeding the 55.7 per … Continue reading "A Bigger, More Taxed, Less Housed Australia Incoming?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. It has been another momentous week on the markets, having fallen hard in reaction to Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, but which have now clawed back most of … Continue reading "Bluster or Beef? – The “There And Back Again” Market Crash!"

The current narrative that pressures on households are easing, as recycled through the election campaign, are questioned when you look at the real data. So today I walk through our latest analysis of our 52,000 household surveys. The findings reveal that, whilst at the margin there has been some slight improvement for some, the truth … Continue reading "Households Under The Pump As Housing Costs Soar!"

As the election approaches, I wanted to underline again the dramatic issues renters are facing across the country. I will be publishing my latest household surveys for April tomorrow, but Anglicare Australia just released their Rental Affordability Snapshot report for 2025, based on a survey of over 51,000 rental listings across the country using data … Continue reading "Renters Thrown Under The Bus… By Design!"

Well superficially, headline and trimmed mean inflation are both finally back inside the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band based on the latest data from the ABS today. Annual CPI inflation was 2.4 per cent in the March quarter, unchanged from the December quarter. Trimmed mean annual inflation was 2.9 per cent, down from 3.3 … Continue reading "We (The Tax Payer) Saved The Inflation Day; Or Did We?"

This is an edit of a live discussion as I explore with Chris Bates the pressure to get onto the property ladder, and how people manage to stay on, in the light of the current election campaigns, and expected market dynamics ahead. We will also explore the role of a broker and future of property … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Getting And Staying On The Property Ladder With Chris Bates"

As we count down to the election, we look at the latest property news with our insider Edwin Almeida. Markets are slowing ahead of the winter season, though are still tracking ahead of last year in terms of listings, if not auctions. We also look at some of the underlying currents in the markets, from … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Despite the call for even more new building across Australia to meet the current demand for somewhere to live, it is worth noting that compared to many other countries we have been building more per 1,000 than almost all other countries. And we have talked before about the pressure on builders due to higher construction … Continue reading "The New Build Property Con…"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. I am minded this week of a 1930's novel called Things Fall Apart, because it seems to me we saw a shattering of the Trump reform wave … Continue reading "Markets Rejoice On Trump Turnarounds But… Are Things Falling Apart?"

The data does not lie, housing is more out of reach for more Australians than ever before, whether renting, or purchase via a mortgage. The gap between incomes and home prices have gone through the roof, and households are spending more than ever on trying to house themselves. Over the past 20 years, property prices … Continue reading "Forget Affordable Housing: For Generations!"

Despite the slow fall in inflation, Australian households are paying through the nose for their insurance. Indeed, rising insurance premiums have been a notable contributor to Australia's cost-of-living crisis. They have also placed upward pressure on CPI inflation. The Climate Council says that Australians are paying $30 billion more on insurance than they were a … Continue reading "Dumb Planning And The Rise In Insurance Costs: Costs Us All…"

Here we go again. Just yesterday, markets fell on Trumps comments concerning Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and by threatening to sack the head of the world's most important central bank. Then the IMF came out with an economic update which slashed its US and global economic forecasts, warning that tariffs were ushering in a new … Continue reading "Markets Jump On Trump's Latest Change Of Tune!"

This is my edit of a regular segment with Nuggets News, as we look at the latest market, finance and property news. This month we dwell on the question of the financial system, in the light of Trump’s tariffs and calls for the Fed Chair to cut rates. As a result, investors are leaving the … Continue reading "Economic Update: April 2025"

This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest market dynamics even as tariffs wreck the joint, and treasury yields rise; with Adam Stokes, a crypto evangelist. Is it time for new money, and how does all this play into the current election debates? https://www.youtube.com/@adamstokes http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Is The Financial System Breaking (And What's Next): With Adam Stokes"

Property Insider Edwin and I kick around the latest property and election news, and pull apart the latest numbers. During the show we highlight recent announcements from China about graduates now being pulled into the army, the latest on what people are not moving, despite in some cases pressures to do so, and the latest … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

I had a couple of YouTube shows pop up in my feed today which cut to the heart of the economic issues which Australia is facing. Up to now, the critical questions around migration, productivity and gas reservation were really not covered in any depth, indeed, some might say they were deliberately avoided. But now … Continue reading "Finally, Some Of The MSM Are Telling The Economic Truth (Sort Of)…"

I caught up with Assoc Prof Andy Schmulow, the NSW Senate Candidate for The Australian Citizens Party, as we did a deep dive into the structural issues which are killing the Australian Economy, and its society; and what can be done about them. The conversation touched on the rigged system which has caused the cost … Continue reading "Meet A Man With A Mission To Save Australia!"

Australia's housing crisis is a key issue in this year's election and as the campaigns run on, yawn, housing remains a central issue, but both major parties are playing games rather than getting to the heart of the issue. So today, I want to go though three cameos which bring out some of the critical … Continue reading "Some Sliding Door Moments On The Fractured Australian Property!"

As we meet Easter head on, thoughts of course turn to the Chocolate Easter Egg. If you walk round the stores, you will note a few trends. First. Prices are significantly higher than the past couple of years. Second, the size of the eggs are smaller, thanks to shrinkflation, with some items 10% smaller than … Continue reading "What Egg-actly Is Going On With The Incredible Shrinking Easter Egg Scam?"

Today, Gold hit another all-time high as warnings from Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell about the impact of the trade war fueled volatility on Wall Street, leading to sharp declines in stocks and the dollar. Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday and said that policymakers would balance their dual responsibilities … Continue reading "Uncertainty Into Stagflation Spooks Markets, Lifts Gold (Again)…"

In my live show with Leith van Onselen yesterday, we pulled apart the major party campaigns relating to housing, which focussed on those trying to buy, and a promise of higher home prices for all. This will put a rocket under home prices. But the real story, and the accompanying policy vacuum relates to the … Continue reading "Plenty Of Waffle But No Beef: The Rental Scandal That Pollies Prefer To Ignore!"

This is an edit version of a live discussion as I explore the latest political interventions into the housing market and other economic issues with Leith Van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness. Will house prices skyrocket following the election of a second-term Labor government? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Are Australian House Prices Set To Rocket? With Leith Van Onselen"

An important week for a Rant as Edwin and I pick apart the latest housing policy announcements, and the broader economic questions surrounding the Trump Tariff games. What will property do as a result? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

You can tell an election is close as both major parties have launched their campaigns formally, with Dutton in Western Sydney and Albo in Perth. Recognising that costs of living and housing specifically are haunting younger voters, who now comprise the bulk of voters for the first time, housing was at the heart of both … Continue reading "Con Job: Housing Dog Whistles And Sugar Hits As Election Day Looms!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia. This past week was an object lesson in the power of the Bond market. And not for the first time. A favourite quote on markets comes from the former CEO of Citicorp, Walter Wriston, … Continue reading "In A Hyper Financialised World, Bond Markets Rule…"