Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

In this weeks show we uncover four pieces of good news, as well as pushing on some of the big issues of the day. Will property benefit from the current instability in the middle east? Will Governments cut red tape? Will pigs fly? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Sad to say we saw a major escalation of the conflict in the middle east overnight as US President Donald Trump decided to join the Israeli attacks on Iran. Remember, this is the president who wanted to end America's “forever wars” but he has joined the Israeli attack, against the wishes of many prominent Republicans. … Continue reading "Duck And Cover As US Bombs Iran!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets have clawed their way back towards record highs in recent weeks, following the early April Trump tariff experiments. The MSCI global index was flat on the … Continue reading "Betting On The TACO Trade, Or Bust…!"

I thought I would try an experiment today, using AI to examine Australian housing affordability. So I did some research with Copilot. I started with the question of why Home Prices in Australia are so high Relative to Incomes. The reply seems remarkably on point. In summary, Australia faces one of the most acute housing … Continue reading "What AI Knows About Housing Affordability That Our Leaders Duck!"

We got a master performance from Fed Chain Powell yesterday in saying as little as possible, while avoiding all the pitfalls and not mentioning stagflation once. The Fed confirmed on Wednesday that a targeted federal funds rate had been held at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following its rate-setting open market committee's latest two-day … Continue reading "Watching Paint Dry Would Have Been More Fun…!"

Across the ditch, the story of home prices and affordability is completely different from Australia. So far, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate by 2.25%, which has lowered mortgage rates by around 2% over the past year. The good news is that falling interest rates, heavy price cuts, and … Continue reading "Kiwis Get More Good News On Housing Affordability!"

This is an edit of a live discussion as we explore the latest DFA modelling on financial stress across the country. We will have the post code engine on line, as well as our mapping tools. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Mapping Financial Stress Across Australia"

This week we deep dive into the property data to debunk more claims about massive price rises, as well as call out NCB (Dummy Bidding) and other tricks of the trade. Given the emotion simmering under the surface, and being stoked by poorly written articles in some quarters, linked to the property industry, we lay … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Last week I discussed the weaker auction and clearance results, centred on the impact of the King's Birthday long weekend, which cut the number of auctions held by around one-third. In the end, Sydney's final auction clearance rate subsequently fell to 58.1%, the lowest result this year. But of course, this week, it's a different … Continue reading "“No Choice: But Forced To Buy Units Ahead Of Rate Cuts!”"

This is our weekly market update. We begin in the US, move to Europe and Asia, and conclude in Australia, also covering commodities and cryptocurrency. Recent tensions in the Middle East increased oil prices, with investors turning to safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold. Oil prices rose following Iran’s response to Israel’s significant military … Continue reading "At The Edge Of The Abyss, Or Just Noise?"

In a recent 1:1 conversation, I was asked why I keep talking about the drivers of housing affordability, when it seems those in charge default to a simplistic “its all supply” response. My simple answer was, and is, because the real story needs to be told, especially now. We just got a report from the … Continue reading "The Migration Elephant In The Room Is MIA In Yet Another Housing Crisis Report!"

Now we know that the Pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS pact as the Trump administration looks to shift the burden for collective defense to allies and make sure the US has enough warships of its own. In 2021 AUKUS was the Biden-era the US$240bn agreement with Britain and Australia in which Australia … Continue reading "Is The AUKUS Stupidity About To Be Called Out?"

I remember when I was traveling in Asia some year back, I had many people tell me about China's ability to think long term, and play for long term wins. I recalled those conversations this week, as two days of talks on trade ended in London on Tuesday. Between the US and China. They are … Continue reading "The US China Trade Smoke And Mirrors…"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we look at the latest from the markets. Many indices are now close to all time highs again, as the trade war risks are downplayed, yet long terms bond rates remain elevated, … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Investing Now: Are Markets Back To Normal? With Damien Klassen"

Another dose of sense from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we kick over the coals of the market, after a weaker auction session this week. Which begs the question, are markets set to run higher, or are other factors in play? Where is the new money coming from, and what will the consequences be? … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

If you look at the data on property, and specifically mortgage lending, there is something lurking in the woodshed. It is simply this. Mainstream bank lending has become the preserve of wealthier, older borrowers, with a combination of lending rules, risk aversion, climbing asset prices, and rising living costs locking younger, less wealthy Australians out … Continue reading "Property Lies, Distortions And Social Consequences…"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. In the battle of the two mega egos, of Tump and Musk, which raged this week on socials, the lynch-pin was a deep question about the sustainability … Continue reading "Flying Blind? Markets Sway As Global Debt Bomb Looms!"

On Wednesday Commonwealth Bank shares hit a record $181.10, to become the first ASX-listed company to be valued at more than $300 billion. By comparison, the country's second-largest company by value, BHP, has a market capitalisation of $192 billion. The iron ore giant had been the ASX's biggest stock since it collapsed its British company, … Continue reading "Is CBA ≥ NVIDIA?"

The slang term “Jumping The Shark” according to the Urban Dictionary, is when something has reached its peak and begun a downhill slide to mediocrity or oblivion. It was especially applied to TV shows like the Happy Days episode where Fonzie jumps over a shark while on water-skis. This was considered to be the low … Continue reading "Is Australia At Risk Of “Jumping The Shark?”"

There is massive wealth tied up in Australian property, but there some important questions which follow from this, especially given the expectation of inter-generational wealth transfer ahead, Governments seeking more tax sources, and the family bank becoming even more important in family finances. This show looks at these issues, and sheets the consequences back to … Continue reading "Can The Property Market Python Swallow The Equity Elephant?"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist and Joint Founder of Macrobusiness. We dived into the latest trends across the Australian economy and delved into the expected trajectory of home prices ahead, as well as broader issues including migration and productivity. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Property Nightmare Ahead? With Leith van Onselen"

In our regular show, Edwin and I unpack the latest property data and ask whether the booming headlines about more home price growth ahead tells the full story (clue: no). We also look at the latest from the Wee Chat Chatters and parse the statistics on auctions and clearance rates. And we meet the Godfathers … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

If you believe the hype, households across Australia are experiencing waves of relief, as rates are cut, incomes rise and inflation falls. But, judging by the results from my latest surveys, this is far from true. Worse, home prices could well start taking off again, as supply does meet demand from new migrants, and other … Continue reading "Is The Financial Stress Worm Finally Turning Or Is It Eating It's Young?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. Another chaotic week, with the tariff issues spinning into farce, even as long term bond yields claw higher, and friction with China and the US continues. Sentiments … Continue reading "Tariffs; The Uncertainty Gift That Keeps Giving…"

Australia's economic woes can be sheeted to poor Government on housing, tax non-reform and many other factors, but the mother of all problems is the costs of energy. I find in amazing that despite swimming in gas being sucked from the ground by several large multinational companies who apparently pay no tax, they sell the … Continue reading "The Gas Long Con Continues; For Now… At What Cost?"

Here we go again, more uncertainly relating to Trumps Favorite policy tool, which has been thrown into turmoil after the US trade court issued a rare rebuke blocking many of the import taxes he has threatened and imposed on other countries. The US trade court is part of the nation's federal court system and was … Continue reading "The Tariff Snakes And Ladders Game Takes Another Turn!"

New Zealand has been on a more aggressive monetary policy path, having pushed rates high enough to create a recession, then cut them again after starting its easing cycle in August lowering the OCR by 225 points including another 25 basis points today, making the RBNZ one of the most aggressive rate cutters among its … Continue reading "Kiwis Get Another Rate Cut: But Will Home Prices Respond?"

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager at Alto Capital Tony Locantro, as we explore the current financial and social landscape. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: What The ??? Just Happened? With Tony Locantro"

Edwin and I discuss the latest from the property market, and the political and economic events which underpin it. Funny how politicians seem to look after their own interests, not ours, and how the spin from the property sector continues to diverge from reality on the ground. Meantime, energy prices are set to rise, even … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Believe it or not, its now 12 months since the Senate Inquiry into Regional Banking released their report. You may recall that I, working with The Regional's Dale Webster, alongside the Citizens Party and others, managed to get the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport References Committee to look at banking in the regions, and … Continue reading "No Cash, Crickets And A War Of Mass Distraction!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. U.S. equities pulled back this week after a torrid rally, as investors turned their attention to tax and spending legislation poised to swell the U.S. government's $36 … Continue reading "The Markets React To The Art Of The Deal Going Full Picasso!"

The strong message I continue to get from my household surveys is that many households feel trapped in the jaws of ever higher prices, and see a real devaluation in their effective income, which means they are going backwards. Many are working more hours and multiple jobs to try and get by. Yet the Government … Continue reading "Reality Versus The Statisticians: Yes You Do Have An Real Income Recession!"

Something important is happening in the Bond markets which will impact us all. In short, all around the world it seems, investors are more reluctant to lend to governments over long terms. Overall, bond investors are demanding more compensation to buy longer maturities — and not just for the US. Japanese and UK 30-year yields … Continue reading "Signals From The Bond Market Front Line…"

Funny how Bond markets seem to look past most of what RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said in her post Monetary Policy Committee meeting yesterday, but remember they are gamblers. As was expected, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent in its second reduction this year, but revelations during … Continue reading "Expect The Unexpected As Uncertainty Spirals…"

This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the thorny question of how to get good advice, and best value from Real Estate Agents. I will be joined by insiders who will share their industry insights. Aaron Scott https://www.brightagent.com/Edwin Almeida info@ribbonproperty.com.au Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: How To Get The Best From A Real Estate Agent"

A mega edition tonight, as we look at the rate cut expectations and their impact on home prices, the fall out from the changes to rental rules, the $3m+ gains tax on superannuation and its implications and the latest from the Wee Chat market seekers in Melbourne. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Which ever way you look at it, housing affordability in Australia is shot. Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reported that the total value of Australia's housing stock was $11.3 trillion as of April 30, 2025, with the average home worth exactly $1 million. This is a leech on the economic prosperity of Australia, and a massive misallocation … Continue reading "Housing Affordability Blown To Bits…"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. Superficially since the start of the year, global stocks, as measured by the MSCI index are up a healthy 4.67% while the European STOXX 600 is up … Continue reading "OK, So Now Where Do Markets Go Next?"

Commonweath Bank was in the news this week, first because of its reported results, and second because of its “draconian” handling of what is called the Know Your Customer or KYC rules. CBA reported a flat cash profit of a $2.6 billion during the third quarter of the 2025 financial year pretty much in line … Continue reading "Are They Banking On Their Own Futures; Not Yours?"

Just a few days ago, markets were betting on a mega 50 basis point cut in the cash rate by the RBA next week and expecting a rate below 3% before the end of the year, anticipating at least five RBA rate cuts with a decent chance of a sixth, reflective of the worrying second … Continue reading "Pop Goes The Rate Cut Calls?"

The latest data from the ABS on Overseas Arrivals and Departures, in Australia revealed that the fall in Australian net overseas migration may have stalled and started to reverse. Of course high migration puts pressure on home prices, stoking demand for rental property as well, and also paves a path to lower wages for some, … Continue reading "An Island Of Strangers?"

This is an edit of a live discussion as I explore the latest from my surveys and modelling and deep dive on specific post codes. It included specific post code data requested by viewers. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: Post Code Analysis: Households Under The Pump"

In this week’s show Edwin, our property insider, and I highlight recent changes in property listings, which might well signal a change in trajectory is afoot. Of course the property press are talking up the markets like never before, stoked by the hope of significant interest rate cuts. And given the fact many of our … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

As the dust settles on the election, with Labor back on 34.69% first preferences, a number reflective of the lat UK election too, where the party with the landslide has a narrow base of primary supporters; one figure which remains is that promise of building 1.2 million homes over five years, even if the start … Continue reading "The Missing Homes That Won't Get Built!"

I am joined by Journalist Tarric Brooker for a post-election debrief, and a flurry of excellent charts to examine how Australia is travelling. As we will see there are some important signals, and questions arising, especially in the content of the US Tariffs. Check out Tarrics Substack here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-9th-may-2025 His Facebook link is here: https://www.facebook.com/people/Burnout-Economics/61553967393228/ … Continue reading "Australia's Managed Decline: With Tarric Brooker"

On Wednesday we got the latest FOMC rate decision from Jerome Powell and the FED, following their first meeting since President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements last month. He made it clear in the subsequent press conference that the US economy, based on the bulk of available data is still tracking well, and whilst the … Continue reading "Just Don't Mention Stagflation, As Uncertainty Rises!"

We have had a slew of data recently, which tells the true sorry story about Australian Households. While the election campaign was centred on costs of living, the nature of the problem was not explored, nor were the solutions thrown out on the stump addressing the real pain which is out there. For context, the … Continue reading "Can't Spend; Won't Spend Says Households As Recession Looms…"

This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest market moves with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. Are the bulls back, or is a recession incoming? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Are The Bulls Back? Investing Now: With Damien Klassen"

This is our post-election Rant, where Edwin and I discuss the fall-out on property from the results. Prices will be driven higher in some areas, thanks to supply pressure and increasing demand, but not uniformly, as there are other important factors in play… http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

So now we know, Labor is headed into a landslide result from the election, after Liberal votes fell away and the opposition leader Peter Dutton lost his seat. If the number holds through to the end of the count, it will be the highest two-party preferred vote since World War II, exceeding the 55.7 per … Continue reading "A Bigger, More Taxed, Less Housed Australia Incoming?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. It has been another momentous week on the markets, having fallen hard in reaction to Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, but which have now clawed back most of … Continue reading "Bluster or Beef? – The “There And Back Again” Market Crash!"