Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

This week, a deep dive into the property management sector, and more on the problem with property data which distorts the truth. Plus what the China visit is really about. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts Today’s post is … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Once again, we are off to the races with preliminary auction clearance rates being spruiked to high heaven again over the weekend. As I discussed recently, these numbers are misleading because they rely on reported results, which are biased towards successful outcomes, while avoiding the gap between listed and reported results. Take Domain for example, … Continue reading "Property Gaslighting Continues In Spades…"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Investors are aggressively buying into riskier assets, sending bitcoin and companies focused on artificial intelligence to new highs as they shrug off months of uncertainty caused by … Continue reading "Tariff Noose Tightens Even As Investors Buy Riskier Assets… But…"

Today we look at the latest from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand where rates were held, though following cuts of 2.25%, compared with the RBA 0.5%. Uncertainly remains the watchword. So we reflect on the different inflation track, and look at rental inflation in particular, in the light of the latest Domain data showing … Continue reading "Central Banks In Wonderland: As RBNZ Holds Too!"

Yesterday as I discussed in my live show, the RBA held the cash rate at 3.85%, which surprised almost all economists, the media, and Labor politicians alike. If you listen to Michelle Bullock, at the press conference, she was careful to talk about, caution, waiting for more data because the monthly inflation stats are volatile, … Continue reading "“Kersplat”: The Collision Between Economics And Politics!"

This is an edit of a live discussion as I walk though the latest analysis from our household surveys, and go granular in terms of the impact of rate cuts, mortgage and rental stress, and the potential trajectory of home prices. I will have the post code engine on line. Details of our one to … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Rate Cuts, Home Prices And Financial Stress: Granular Deep Dive"

In this week’s Property Rant, we discuss wolves in sheep’s clothing, as we ask who is really paying the bills, and who are the property winners and losers? We also delve into our “Pavlova” apartments, and highlight the latest property BS, in which we seem to be drowning at the moment! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

The truth is that the current Government approach to housing which is based on building 1.2 million new homes over a 5-year period won't be met. As I reported recently the running total is 60,000 homes below what would be required to meet the target. But worse, the strategy is driving the states to permit … Continue reading "The Strata Nightmare Continues…"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. US markets were closed on Friday thanks to the July 4 Independence Day celebrations. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed at record highs on Thursday … Continue reading "As Markets Melt Upwards, Are Things Falling Apart?"

Two years ago Investment Manager Tony Locantro had a radical change of direction in terms of life-style and diet. On this second anniversary I caught up with him to reflect on his journey, and discussed the broader questions of the deadly embrace of big-pharma and big-food and how this is causing harm, and what we … Continue reading "Tony Locantro's Two Year Carniversary!"

We review the latest data, including from the DFA Household Surveys to consider what may happen next to property across the country. Its complicated, with supply, demand and Government policy drivers messing with the markets. Granularity is important, as is filtering the high-level spruiking. In some areas prices are continuing to fall or go sideways. … Continue reading "How Will The Current Property Mess Play Out?"

New Zealand had been an anomaly for some time in that in had introduced the clearest Deposit Bail-in scheme in the world, via the Open Banking Resolution (OBR) which in the case of a bank failure, OBR allows a portion of depositors’ funds to be temporarily frozen and used to recapitalize the bank, while the … Continue reading "Finally, Kiwis Get Some Deposit Protection!"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Head of Investments Damien Klassen, as we parse the latest from the markets. We are looking at all time highs again, but what does this really signify. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Investing Now: More All Time Highs Ahead? With Damien Klassen"

A deep dive this week into the drivers of property prices, and who is to blame for the rising inter-generation tensions, as Edwin Almeida and I discuss the latest trends across the Australian property market. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

OK, I am done with taking the Saturday releases from the likes of Domain and Cotality as anything meaningful. To illustrate the point, the latest in the AFR cities Cotality data claiming the national auction clearance rate has risen to its highest level in a year after two interest rate cuts and the possibility of … Continue reading "Calling Out The Auction Clearance BS Again!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. Well, it's been another extraordinary week, as the MSCI Global Index hit a new all time, along with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Investors hope the US … Continue reading "“Nothing Ever Happens” As Markets Reach All Time Highs (Again!)"

Sometimes I think I live in a parallel world compared with the state and federal politicians who combined seem intent on driving more households into oblivion, in attempt to keep those home prices pumping higher. This despite the obvious disconnect between prices and affordability, and the link between inflated money supply via debt, and home … Continue reading "Fibs, Bribes, And Plain Stupidity Hooks More First Time Buyers…"

There are growing concerns that we may be in the late stages of a global asset bubble—though whether it’s a full-blown bubble or just elevated valuations depends on who you ask and which asset class you’re looking at. So we look at the latest data, and talk to Harry Dent, the famous author and economist, … Continue reading "Inside The Impossible Everything Bubble!"

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Veronica Morgan, as we explore the highs and lows of Buyers Agents, with the help of some case studies and questions. How do you pick a good one? Can you trust them? Can they help, or hinder? Veronica Morgan is the Founder and Principal of … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: A Hitchhikers Guide To Buyers Agents: With Veronica Morgan"

In this weeks show we uncover four pieces of good news, as well as pushing on some of the big issues of the day. Will property benefit from the current instability in the middle east? Will Governments cut red tape? Will pigs fly? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Sad to say we saw a major escalation of the conflict in the middle east overnight as US President Donald Trump decided to join the Israeli attacks on Iran. Remember, this is the president who wanted to end America's “forever wars” but he has joined the Israeli attack, against the wishes of many prominent Republicans. … Continue reading "Duck And Cover As US Bombs Iran!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets have clawed their way back towards record highs in recent weeks, following the early April Trump tariff experiments. The MSCI global index was flat on the … Continue reading "Betting On The TACO Trade, Or Bust…!"

I thought I would try an experiment today, using AI to examine Australian housing affordability. So I did some research with Copilot. I started with the question of why Home Prices in Australia are so high Relative to Incomes. The reply seems remarkably on point. In summary, Australia faces one of the most acute housing … Continue reading "What AI Knows About Housing Affordability That Our Leaders Duck!"

We got a master performance from Fed Chain Powell yesterday in saying as little as possible, while avoiding all the pitfalls and not mentioning stagflation once. The Fed confirmed on Wednesday that a targeted federal funds rate had been held at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following its rate-setting open market committee's latest two-day … Continue reading "Watching Paint Dry Would Have Been More Fun…!"

Across the ditch, the story of home prices and affordability is completely different from Australia. So far, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate by 2.25%, which has lowered mortgage rates by around 2% over the past year. The good news is that falling interest rates, heavy price cuts, and … Continue reading "Kiwis Get More Good News On Housing Affordability!"

This is an edit of a live discussion as we explore the latest DFA modelling on financial stress across the country. We will have the post code engine on line, as well as our mapping tools. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Mapping Financial Stress Across Australia"

This week we deep dive into the property data to debunk more claims about massive price rises, as well as call out NCB (Dummy Bidding) and other tricks of the trade. Given the emotion simmering under the surface, and being stoked by poorly written articles in some quarters, linked to the property industry, we lay … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Last week I discussed the weaker auction and clearance results, centred on the impact of the King's Birthday long weekend, which cut the number of auctions held by around one-third. In the end, Sydney's final auction clearance rate subsequently fell to 58.1%, the lowest result this year. But of course, this week, it's a different … Continue reading "“No Choice: But Forced To Buy Units Ahead Of Rate Cuts!”"

This is our weekly market update. We begin in the US, move to Europe and Asia, and conclude in Australia, also covering commodities and cryptocurrency. Recent tensions in the Middle East increased oil prices, with investors turning to safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold. Oil prices rose following Iran’s response to Israel’s significant military … Continue reading "At The Edge Of The Abyss, Or Just Noise?"

In a recent 1:1 conversation, I was asked why I keep talking about the drivers of housing affordability, when it seems those in charge default to a simplistic “its all supply” response. My simple answer was, and is, because the real story needs to be told, especially now. We just got a report from the … Continue reading "The Migration Elephant In The Room Is MIA In Yet Another Housing Crisis Report!"

Now we know that the Pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS pact as the Trump administration looks to shift the burden for collective defense to allies and make sure the US has enough warships of its own. In 2021 AUKUS was the Biden-era the US$240bn agreement with Britain and Australia in which Australia … Continue reading "Is The AUKUS Stupidity About To Be Called Out?"

I remember when I was traveling in Asia some year back, I had many people tell me about China's ability to think long term, and play for long term wins. I recalled those conversations this week, as two days of talks on trade ended in London on Tuesday. Between the US and China. They are … Continue reading "The US China Trade Smoke And Mirrors…"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we look at the latest from the markets. Many indices are now close to all time highs again, as the trade war risks are downplayed, yet long terms bond rates remain elevated, … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Investing Now: Are Markets Back To Normal? With Damien Klassen"

Another dose of sense from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we kick over the coals of the market, after a weaker auction session this week. Which begs the question, are markets set to run higher, or are other factors in play? Where is the new money coming from, and what will the consequences be? … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

If you look at the data on property, and specifically mortgage lending, there is something lurking in the woodshed. It is simply this. Mainstream bank lending has become the preserve of wealthier, older borrowers, with a combination of lending rules, risk aversion, climbing asset prices, and rising living costs locking younger, less wealthy Australians out … Continue reading "Property Lies, Distortions And Social Consequences…"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. In the battle of the two mega egos, of Tump and Musk, which raged this week on socials, the lynch-pin was a deep question about the sustainability … Continue reading "Flying Blind? Markets Sway As Global Debt Bomb Looms!"

On Wednesday Commonwealth Bank shares hit a record $181.10, to become the first ASX-listed company to be valued at more than $300 billion. By comparison, the country's second-largest company by value, BHP, has a market capitalisation of $192 billion. The iron ore giant had been the ASX's biggest stock since it collapsed its British company, … Continue reading "Is CBA ≥ NVIDIA?"

The slang term “Jumping The Shark” according to the Urban Dictionary, is when something has reached its peak and begun a downhill slide to mediocrity or oblivion. It was especially applied to TV shows like the Happy Days episode where Fonzie jumps over a shark while on water-skis. This was considered to be the low … Continue reading "Is Australia At Risk Of “Jumping The Shark?”"

There is massive wealth tied up in Australian property, but there some important questions which follow from this, especially given the expectation of inter-generational wealth transfer ahead, Governments seeking more tax sources, and the family bank becoming even more important in family finances. This show looks at these issues, and sheets the consequences back to … Continue reading "Can The Property Market Python Swallow The Equity Elephant?"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist and Joint Founder of Macrobusiness. We dived into the latest trends across the Australian economy and delved into the expected trajectory of home prices ahead, as well as broader issues including migration and productivity. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Property Nightmare Ahead? With Leith van Onselen"

In our regular show, Edwin and I unpack the latest property data and ask whether the booming headlines about more home price growth ahead tells the full story (clue: no). We also look at the latest from the Wee Chat Chatters and parse the statistics on auctions and clearance rates. And we meet the Godfathers … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

If you believe the hype, households across Australia are experiencing waves of relief, as rates are cut, incomes rise and inflation falls. But, judging by the results from my latest surveys, this is far from true. Worse, home prices could well start taking off again, as supply does meet demand from new migrants, and other … Continue reading "Is The Financial Stress Worm Finally Turning Or Is It Eating It's Young?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. Another chaotic week, with the tariff issues spinning into farce, even as long term bond yields claw higher, and friction with China and the US continues. Sentiments … Continue reading "Tariffs; The Uncertainty Gift That Keeps Giving…"

Australia's economic woes can be sheeted to poor Government on housing, tax non-reform and many other factors, but the mother of all problems is the costs of energy. I find in amazing that despite swimming in gas being sucked from the ground by several large multinational companies who apparently pay no tax, they sell the … Continue reading "The Gas Long Con Continues; For Now… At What Cost?"

Here we go again, more uncertainly relating to Trumps Favorite policy tool, which has been thrown into turmoil after the US trade court issued a rare rebuke blocking many of the import taxes he has threatened and imposed on other countries. The US trade court is part of the nation's federal court system and was … Continue reading "The Tariff Snakes And Ladders Game Takes Another Turn!"

New Zealand has been on a more aggressive monetary policy path, having pushed rates high enough to create a recession, then cut them again after starting its easing cycle in August lowering the OCR by 225 points including another 25 basis points today, making the RBNZ one of the most aggressive rate cutters among its … Continue reading "Kiwis Get Another Rate Cut: But Will Home Prices Respond?"

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager at Alto Capital Tony Locantro, as we explore the current financial and social landscape. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: What The ??? Just Happened? With Tony Locantro"

Edwin and I discuss the latest from the property market, and the political and economic events which underpin it. Funny how politicians seem to look after their own interests, not ours, and how the spin from the property sector continues to diverge from reality on the ground. Meantime, energy prices are set to rise, even … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Believe it or not, its now 12 months since the Senate Inquiry into Regional Banking released their report. You may recall that I, working with The Regional's Dale Webster, alongside the Citizens Party and others, managed to get the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport References Committee to look at banking in the regions, and … Continue reading "No Cash, Crickets And A War Of Mass Distraction!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. U.S. equities pulled back this week after a torrid rally, as investors turned their attention to tax and spending legislation poised to swell the U.S. government's $36 … Continue reading "The Markets React To The Art Of The Deal Going Full Picasso!"

The strong message I continue to get from my household surveys is that many households feel trapped in the jaws of ever higher prices, and see a real devaluation in their effective income, which means they are going backwards. Many are working more hours and multiple jobs to try and get by. Yet the Government … Continue reading "Reality Versus The Statisticians: Yes You Do Have An Real Income Recession!"